Prologis Inc (PLD) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Prologis first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions). And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce to you, Justin Meng, Senior Vice President, and Head of Investor Relations. Thank you, Justin. You may begin.

您好，歡迎參加普洛斯 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）。提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向大家介紹資深副總裁兼投資者關係主管孟宏偉。謝謝你，賈斯汀。你可以開始了。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. The supplemental document is available on our website at prologis.com under Investor Relations. I'd like to state that this conference call will contain forward-looking statement or federal securities laws. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the market and the industry in which Prologis operates as well as management's beliefs and assumptions.

謝謝，約翰，大家早安。歡迎參加我們的 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。補充文件可在我們網站 prologis.com 的「投資者關係」部分找到。我想聲明的是，本次電話會議將包含前瞻性聲明或聯邦證券法。這些聲明是基於對普洛斯所在市場和行業的當前預期、估計和預測以及管理層的信念和假設。

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance, and actual operating results may be affected by a variety of factors. For a list of those factors, please refer to the forward-looking statement notice in our 10-K or other SEC filings.

前瞻性陳述不構成績效保證，實際經營績效可能受到多種因素的影響。有關這些因素的列表，請參閱我們的 10-K 或其他 SEC 文件中的前瞻性聲明通知。

Additionally, our first quarter earnings press release and supplemental do contain financial measures such as FFO and EBITDA that are non-GAAP. And in accordance with Reg G, we have provided a reconciliation to those measures.

此外，我們的第一季財報新聞稿和補充文件確實包含非 GAAP 的財務指標，例如 FFO 和 EBITDA。並且根據 Reg G，我們已經對這些措施進行了調整。

I'd like to welcome Tim Arndt, our CFO, who will cover results, real-time market conditions and guidance. Hamid Moghadam, our CEO, and Dan Letter, President; and Chris Caton, Managing Director, are also with us today. With that, I'll hand the call over to Tim.

我歡迎我們的財務長 Tim Arndt，他將介紹業績、即時市場狀況和指導。我們的執行長 Hamid Moghadam 和總裁 Dan Letter；以及董事總經理 Chris Caton 今天也來到了我們現場。說完這些，我就把電話交給提姆。

Thanks, Justin. Good morning to everybody and thank you for joining the call. Prologis delivered a very strong quarter. We leased 58 million square feet, a near-record broke ground on several build-to-suit developments with key customers and expanded our power capacity by 400 megawatts to support growing demand for data centers, a 13% increase.

謝謝，賈斯汀。大家早安，感謝大家參加電話會議。普洛斯本季業績表現非常強勁。我們租賃了 5,800 萬平方英尺的空間，與主要客戶一起破土動工建設了幾個客製化開發項目，創下了近乎紀錄的記錄，並將我們的電力容量擴大了 400 兆瓦，以滿足日益增長的數據中心需求，增幅達 13%。

We outperformed our expectations on earnings, occupancy and -- prior to April 2, industrial fundamentals were improving and had it not been for the recent uncertainty from global tariffs and their downstream impacts, we would have raised our expectations for 2025.

我們在獲利、入住率方面的表現超出了預期——4 月 2 日之前，工業基本面正在改善，如果不是最近全球關稅的不確定性及其下游影響，我們會提高對 2025 年的預期。

Instead, we are electing to maintain earnings guidance as there are no policy conclusions right now to plan differently and our severe stress test to core FFO supports the existing range.

相反，我們選擇維持獲利預測，因為目前沒有政策結論來製定不同的計劃，我們對核心 FFO 的嚴格壓力測試支持現有範圍。

While the instability created in the last two weeks may disrupt logistics and supply chains, it will certainly slow decision-making. Many companies now question where to source are or even sell their goods. In speaking with customers, they echo the sentiment, while at the same time revealing a need for flexible inventory positioning in the evolving landscape.

雖然過去兩週產生的不穩定因素可能會擾亂物流和供應鏈，但肯定會減緩決策速度。許多公司現在都面臨商品來源甚至銷售地點的問題。在與客戶交談時，他們表達了相同的情緒，同時也表明在不斷變化的環境中需要靈活的庫存定位。

Let's be clear, the range of outcomes is wide. We see potential for a recession -- or possibly both. And let's also not dismiss the potential for a quick resolution. It's important to remember that Prologis was designed to weather any environment. We have a global footprint with a highly diversified rent roll.

讓我們明確一點，結果的範圍很廣。我們認為可能會出現經濟衰退——或者兩者兼而有之。我們也不能忽視快速解決問題的可能性。重要的是要記住，Prologis 的設計是為了適應任何環境。我們的業務遍佈全球，租金收入高度多元。

Our revenues are contractual with fixed or inflation-linked escalations. Fortress balance sheet has unrivaled access to global capital and we are trusted partner to many of the largest institutional investors in our strategic capital business. All of this positioning Prologis to be a partner of choice for our customers, especially in turbulent times.

我們的收入是合約固定的或與通貨膨脹掛鉤的。Fortress 資產負債表擁有無與倫比的全球資本獲取管道，我們是策略資本業務中許多最大機構投資者值得信賴的合作夥伴。所有這些都使普洛斯成為我們客戶的首選合作夥伴，尤其是在動盪時期。

Before I review the quarter, let me share three high-level thoughts. First, a disconnected world will require more warehouse space, not less. Second, the current environment is an endorsement of our long-standing strategy to invest in markets where goods are consumed, not where they're produced. And third, we built our company with intention to not only withstand market disruptions, but to take advantage of opportunities as they arise.

在回顧本季之前，請容許我分享三個高層次的想法。首先，一個不相連的世界將需要更多的倉庫空間，而不是更少。其次，目前的環境認可了我們長期以來的投資策略，即投資於商品消費市場，而不是生產市場。第三，我們創建公司的初衷不僅是為了抵禦市場波動，而且是為了抓住出現的機會。

Turning to the quarter. Core FFO, including net promotes was $1.42 per share, and excluding net promotes was $1.43 per share, each ahead of our forecast. Occupancy ended the quarter at 95.2%, down 70 basis points from year-end, which was better than expected due principally to strong retention. Net effective rent change during the quarter was 54% and, on a cash, basis was 32%. As a result, net effective and cash same-store growth during the quarter were 5.9% and 6.2%, respectively.

轉向本季。核心 FFO（包括淨促銷）為每股 1.42 美元，不包括淨促銷）為每股 1.43 美元，均高於我們的預測。本季入住率為 95.2%，比去年年底下降 70 個基點，但由於保留率高，入住率比預期好。本季淨有效租金變動為 54%，以現金計算則為 32%。因此，本季淨有效和現金同店成長率分別為 5.9% 和 6.2%。

Our net effective lease mark-to-market ended the quarter at 25% and with most of the sequential decline driven by the increase of in-place rents. This 25% represents a further $1.1 billion of incremental NOI after capturing another $105 million during the quarter.

本季末，我們的淨有效租賃以市價計價的比率為 25%，其中大部分連續下降是由於現有租金的上漲所致。這 25% 代表在本季獲得另外 1.05 億美元之後，又增加了 11 億美元的淨營業利潤。

On capital deployment, we started approximately $650 million in new developments, outperforming our forecast with nearly 80% of the activity and build-to-suits with lease terms that average 16 years. We have been describing the build-to-suit pipeline is robust for some time and in the last several months, decision-making finally thought which we believe highlights the need for space is real, but what has kept volumes low is confidence.

在資本部署方面，我們啟動了價值約 6.5 億美元的新開發項目，超出了我們的預期，其中近 80% 的項目為客製化建設，平均租賃期限為 16 年。我們一直在描述客製化管道在一段時間內的強勁表現，並且在過去的幾個月中，決策層終於認為我們認為突出的空間需求是真實存在的，但導致產量低的原因是信心。

We have over a dozen deals still in active dialogue today and in fact, have signed an additional two transactions for 1.1 million square feet post April 2. The pace so far this year has been well ahead of normal. In our data center business, 400 megawatts of power has moved to our advanced stage category upon agreement with utilities for projects in a Tier 1 market.

我們今天仍有十幾筆交易處於積極談判階段，事實上，自 4 月 2 日以來，我們又簽署了另外兩筆交易，總面積達 110 萬平方英尺。今年迄今為止的步伐已經遠遠超過正常水平。在我們的資料中心業務中，根據與一級市場專案的公用事業協議，400 兆瓦的電力已進入我們的高級階段類別。

We now total 2 gigawatts in this category alongside our 1.4 gigawatts of power, which is already fully secured. Our conversations with utilities and hyperscale’s alike have been very productive, and we will have start activity to report for the second quarter.

目前，我們這一類別的總容量為 2 千兆瓦，加上我們已經完全保障的 1.4 千兆瓦電力。我們與公用事業公司和超大規模企業的對話非常富有成效，我們將開始報告第二季的活動。

And finally, at quarter end, we have over 900 megawatts of solar and storage capacity either in operation or under development advancing us closer to our 1 gigawatt goal for the year with the US and global -- both and great need for additional energy production and solar as the least expensive format, we feel great about the long-term prospects of this growing business.

最後，在本季度末，我們擁有超過 900 兆瓦的太陽能和儲存容量，無論是在營運中還是在開發中，這使我們更接近今年 1 千兆瓦的目標，美國和全球都迫切需要額外的能源生產，而太陽能是最便宜的形式，我們對這個不斷增長的業務的長期前景感到非常滿意。

On the balance sheet, we raised approximately $400 million in new capital for our flagship open-ended funds yet had similar amount of redemptions, leaving the capital raise near neutral in total. Relatively light quarter debt issuance with $550 million raised at a weighted average rate of 4.1% and including the Canadian bond transaction further insulating that currency exposure.

在資產負債表上，我們為旗艦開放式基金籌集了約 4 億美元的新資本，但贖回金額也差不多，因此總體而言，資本籌集接近中性。本季債務發行量相對較輕，以 4.1% 的加權平均利率發行 5.5 億美元，其中包括加拿大債券交易，進一步隔離了貨幣風險。

Our balance sheet remains in great shape as evidenced by the upgrade we received from Moody's this quarter to an A2 rating. Prologis now being one of only two public REITs with an A-flat rating from both agencies.

我們的資產負債表依然保持良好狀態，穆迪本季將我們的評級上調至 A2 就證明了這一點。普洛斯目前是僅有的兩個同時獲得兩個機構 A-flat 評級的公共房地產投資信託基金之一。

Turning to the operating environment, which I'll cover by describing conditions before and after April 2. The postelection uptick in leasing held steady throughout the quarter with improving proposal volumes and conversions. We saw increased touch points with our global customers and higher activity levels specifically within transport, food and beverage, consumer products and electronics.

談到營運環境，我將透過描述 4 月 2 日之前和之後的情況來介紹。選舉後租賃市場在整個季度保持穩定成長，提案數量和轉換率都有所提高。我們與全球客戶的接觸點增加，尤其是在運輸、食品和飲料、消費品和電子產品領域的活動水準也有所提高。

Week by week, we were on the lookout for any slowdown in the level of interest or pace of leasing following the strong fourth quarter. And while it did not invest in our pipeline numbers, as early tariff threats came on and off and uncertainty grew mid-quarter, we did speculate that we see a slowdown in decision-making.

我們每週都在關注第四季度強勁表現之後租賃興趣或租賃速度是否出現放緩。儘管它沒有投資於我們的管道數字，但隨著早期關稅威脅的出現和季度中期不確定性的增加，我們確實推測我們看到決策速度放緩。

With all of that being old, let's turn to an update on the last two weeks. While it's ultimately announced on April 2, clearly went beyond our early predictions, making the environment less certain. Even with the pause in some tariffs or a resolution of others, Customers simply lack a steady backdrop upon which to plan their businesses. We've now dialogued with more than 300 customers, including two -- prompt customer advisory boards representing over 20% of our rent roll. This is what we've heard.

既然這些都已經過去了，讓我們來看看過去兩週的更新。雖然最終是在 4 月 2 日宣布的，但顯然超出了我們早期的預測，使得環境變得不那麼確定。即使某些關稅暫停實施或其他關稅得到解決，客戶仍然缺乏穩定的背景來規劃他們的業務。我們現在已經與 300 多名客戶進行了對話，其中包括兩個代表我們租金總額 20% 以上的客戶諮詢委員會。這就是我們所聽到的。

Our customer moving quickly to manage tariff volatility with many accelerating shipments where possible. They're also rerouting volumes and have urgent demand for overflow space.

我們的客戶迅速採取行動，盡可能加快出貨速度，以應對關稅波動。他們還重新安排了運輸路線，並且迫切需要溢流空間。

Accordingly, they are looking for short-term flexibility and 3PLs are typically where they turn. Indeed, 3PL's flex space is getting more utilized with one prominent name describing that they've increased their utilization from 83% to over 90%.

因此，他們正在尋求短期靈活性，而第三方物流通常是他們選擇的對象。事實上，3PL 的彈性空間正在得到更多的利用，一位知名人士表示，他們已經將利用率從 83% 提高到了 90% 以上。

We Additionally, alternatives such as free trade zones and bonded warehouses are being evaluated. Our customers who are focused on food and beverage, industrial manufacturing and essential consumer products like health and household goods are more insulated and are operating with confidence but of course, customer selling goods with China-based production faced the most uncertainty.

此外，我們也正在評估自由貿易區和保稅倉庫等替代方案。我們的客戶專注於食品和飲料、工業製造以及健康和家居用品等必需消費品，他們受到的衝擊更小，經營更有信心，但當然，銷售中國生產的商品的客戶面臨的不確定性最大。

Price increases to consumers will be passed through where they can, but margins will still come under pressure Therefore, planning horizons are shortening and flexibility remains key. And customers like everybody are concerned about a recession where consumption and demand will be negatively affected further shaping their response.

價格上漲將盡可能轉嫁給消費者，但利潤率仍將面臨壓力。因此，規劃期限正在縮短，靈活性仍然是關鍵。和所有人一樣，消費者也擔心經濟衰退會對消費和需求帶來負面影響，進而進一步影響他們的反應。

The diversity of feedback was a good reminder that many of our customers source domestically and are relatively unaffected while others have the capability to adapt or even stand to benefit. Whatever the scenario, our team is moving decisively to partner with our customers and meet their needs.

回饋的多樣性很好地提醒了我們，我們的許多客戶都在國內採購，相對不受影響，而其他客戶則有能力適應甚至受益。無論情況如何，我們的團隊都會果斷採取行動，與客戶合作並滿足他們的需求。

In the last two weeks alone, we've signed approximately 80 leases for more than 6 million square feet. That's a roughly 20% dip from our usual pace, and we expect things may slow further, but it does reflect a market that's still active. Looking ahead, here are some things we expect. Inventory levels will increase as businesses stockpile and build resiliency. E-commerce is likely to take more share in an environment where product availability becomes an important factor to consumers in choosing how to shop.

光是過去兩週，我們就簽署了約 80 份租約，面積超過 600 萬平方英尺。這比我們通常的速度下降了約 20%，我們預計情況可能會進一步放緩，但這確實反映出市場仍然活躍。展望未來，我們期待以下幾點。隨著企業囤貨和增強彈性，庫存水準將會增加。在產品供應成為消費者選擇購物方式的重要因素的環境中，電子商務可能會佔據更大的份額。

Global markets will become more important with Canada, India, and Brazil, among those in our portfolio that we expect to benefit. Mexico will be another, and it has stood out in terms of a growing level of interest pre and post April 2.

全球市場將變得更加重要，我們預計加拿大、印度和巴西都將從我們的投資組合中受益。墨西哥將是另一個，它在 4 月 2 日前後引起了越來越多的關注。

Port markets may benefit from an immediate buildup of inventories. From there, we will need time to know how or if trade flows ultimately adjust. Nevertheless, we still believe in the long-term outlook for such markets with large population centers and significant supply constraints, a topic we'll be sharing further research on in the coming days. Finally, we believe that the inflationary effects of tariffs will only serve to increase the value of hard assets, replacement costs and rents.

港口市場可能會因庫存的立即增加而受益。從那時起，我們需要時間來了解貿易流最終如何調整或是否會調整。儘管如此，我們仍然相信這些擁有大量人口中心和嚴重供應限制的市場的長期前景，我們將在未來幾天分享有關該主題的進一步研究。最後，我們認為關稅的通膨效應只會增加硬資產的價值、重置成本和租金。

Turning to our guidance. As mentioned, our first quarter results and outlook would have called for a tightening and increase of guidance, including earnings. Given the circumstances, however, we've opted to hold most areas unchanged with the main exception in capital deployment.

轉向我們的指導。如上所述，我們的第一季業績和展望要求收緊和增加指引，包括獲利。然而，考慮到目前的情況，我們選擇維持大多數領域不變，但資本部署除外。

We are reducing our development start guidance at our share to $1.5 billion to $2 billion, which reflects a reduction in our expectations for spec development until visibility improves. Our combined contribution and disposition guidance is also decreasing to a range of $400 million to $1 billion, again, reflecting uncertainty in both the capital markets and the fundraising environment.

我們將所佔份額的開發啟動指導金額下調至 15 億美元至 20 億美元，這反映了我們對規格開發的預期降低，直到可見度提高。我們的綜合貢獻和處置指引也下降至 4 億美元至 10 億美元的範圍，這再次反映了資本市場和籌資環境的不確定性。

In turn, we are reducing our development gain guidance to a range of $100 million to $250 million. We're also increasing our G&A guidance to a new range of $450 million to $470 million, in part due to the impact on capitalization from the lower development activity. Outside of this, all other areas of our prior guidance are unchanged, with core FFO, including Net Promoter to still range between $5.65 and $5.81 per share and core FFO, excluding the promote expense to range between $5.70 and $5.86 per share.

相應地，我們將開發收益預期下調至 1 億美元至 2.5 億美元之間。我們還將 G&A 指導金額提高至 4.5 億美元至 4.7 億美元的新範圍，部分原因是開發活動減少對資本化產生了影響。除此之外，我們先前指導的所有其他領域均保持不變，核心 FFO（包括淨推薦值）仍在每股 5.65 美元至 5.81 美元之間，核心 FFO（不包括促銷費用）在每股 5.70 美元至 5.86 美元之間。

As I mentioned, we look carefully at our guidance and a severe stress test by examining the fallout from past crises including the [bamera], the GFC [Brexit] and the early days of COVID. GFC had the most extreme outcomes in terms of occupancy loss, rent declines and defaults, which we mirrored and made worse by layering on additional levels of bad debt. In this scenario, we see an earnings outcome that lands at the bottom of but within our range. Anything can happen, and we will reassess in the second quarter, but we feel good about the residency it reflects.

正如我所提到的，我們透過研究過去危機的影響（包括金融危機、全球金融危機和英國脫歐以及新冠疫情初期）仔細審視了我們的指導方針並進行了嚴格的壓力測試。全球金融危機在入住率損失、租金下降和違約方面造成了最極端的後果，我們透過增加額外的壞帳水準使情況變得更糟。在這種情況下，我們看到盈利結果處於底部，但在我們的範圍內。任何事情都可能發生，我們將在第二季重新評估，但我們對它所反映的居住感到滿意。

In closing, we run the company in a disciplined way with the simple tenant to stay close to customers and invest capital accretively. So times like this do not call for dramatic shifts to our strategy. We will be attentive to our customers, and we will use our balance sheet wisely. We will leverage our strengths in securing build-to-suits in both logistics and data centers.

最後，我們以嚴謹的方式經營公司，秉持著簡單的原則，貼近客戶，進行增值投資。因此，這種時候不需要對我們的策略進行重大調整。我們將關注我們的客戶，並明智地使用我們的資產負債表。我們將利用我們的優勢，確保物流和資料中心的客製化建設。

We will continue to harvest all that the platform provides in the way of profitable, adjacent businesses that support our customers and above all, will empower and rely on our people whose expertise and dedication are the foundation of our success.

我們將繼續利用該平台提供的所有有利可圖的、相關的業務來支持我們的客戶，最重要的是，我們將授權並依靠我們的員工，他們的專業知識和奉獻精神是我們成功的基礎。

With that, I will turn the call over to the operator for your questions.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給接線員來回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Tom Catherwood, BTIG.

（操作員指示）Tom Catherwood，BTIG。

Good afternoon, everybody. Tim, I appreciated your commentary on interactions with customers over the past two weeks and appreciate how much is changing on a day-to-day basis. But the other sub to the industrial equation isn't just customers and their supply chains, its demand, which is ultimately driven by consumption.

大家下午好。提姆，我很欣賞你對過去兩週與客戶互動的評論，也欣賞你每天都在發生的變化。但工業方程式的另一個組成部分不僅僅是客戶及其供應鏈，還有需求，而需求最終是由消費驅動的。

Are there lessons from prior disruptions. You obviously mentioned the dotcom and the GFC, but also from kind of the first round of tariffs during the first Trump administration that can serve as a guide for the current environment, maybe in form a -- what you're looking for to kind of judge consumption and demand? And also, what are the risks to consumers going forward?

以前的混亂是否為我們帶來了教訓？您顯然提到了網路泡沫和全球金融危機，但川普政府第一輪的關稅也可以作為當前環境的指導，也許可以以某種形式——您正在尋找什麼來判斷消費和需求？此外，未來消費者面臨哪些風險？

Well, let me take a stab with that. Hamid here. Clearly, if we get into a recession environment, consumption will take a hit. But I don't think you're looking to our call for predictions about whether we're going to have a recession or not, they're better sources you can go for that. But certainly, our business and any other business in a recessionary environment will suffer.

好吧，讓我嘗試一下。這裡是哈米德。顯然，如果我們陷入經濟衰退環境，消費將會受到打擊。但我不認為你會指望我們來預測我們是否會陷入經濟衰退，它們是你可以尋求的更好的來源。但毫無疑問，我們的業務以及經濟衰退環境中的任何其他業務都會受到影響。

You handicap that probability. We're not really qualified to do that. But with respect to the relationship between consumption and GDP growth, that relationship has remained constant for decades now. It's about 70% in the US, and it's lower than that in other emerging countries and coming up, increasing. So I'm pretty confident that the consumption in the long term will trend up. And during a recession, it will take a hit.

你降低了這個機率。我們確實沒有資格這麼做。但就消費和GDP成長之間的關係而言，這種關係幾十年來一直保持不變。美國約為70%，低於其他新興國家，且仍在上升。因此，我非常有信心長期內消費將呈現上升趨勢。在經濟衰退期間，它會受到打擊。

Now as to the 2017 tariffs, I think we've shared this with you before. Can't tell you what happened to consumption. Basically, nothing happened to consumption. That I can tell you. I don't remember the exact numbers. But what I can tell you is that since that date, US production of things that are consumed in the US went up 2% in real terms. What was made in China went up by 2%. Overall, consumption went up in the 20s in the mid-20s.

關於 2017 年的關稅，我想我們之前已經與你們分享過。無法告訴你消費發生了什麼事。消費基本上沒有任何變化。我可以告訴你。我不記得確切的數字。但我可以告訴你的是，自那時起，美國消費品的生產量實際上增加了 2%。中國製造的商品價格上漲了2%。整體而言，20 世紀 20 年代中期消費量成長了 20%。

So where did that increase come from? It came from China plus one and Mexico and to a lesser extent, Europe. So certainly, we've seen some of these trends change the picture and the origins of manufactured goods. But again, as we've said many, many times, where they're consumed is what we care about, and they didn't really do anything where they're consumed or how much they're consumed.

那麼這種成長從何而來？它來自中國、墨西哥以及較小程度的歐洲。因此，我們確實看到一些趨勢改變了製成品的面貌和來源。但是，正如我們多次說過的那樣，我們關心的是它們在哪裡消費，而它們實際上並沒有做任何事情來決定它們在哪裡消費，或者消費了多少。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

史蒂夫‧薩誇 (Steve Sakwa)，Evercore ISI。

I guess, Tim, just wanted to maybe focus a little bit on the leasing, the commencements and then I know that you had talked about occupancy dropping kind of in the early part of the year and then rebuilding in the back half of the year. But the occupancy drop at least versus our estimates, was a bit wider than what we were looking for.

我想，提姆，可能只是想稍微關註一下租賃和開工情況，然後我知道你談到了年初入住率下降，下半年重建的情況。但入住率的下降至少與我們的估計相比，比我們預期的要大一些。

I know you don't provide a quarterly lease expiration schedule your kind of just provide the annual. But maybe just help us bridge the gap on the kind of spot occupancy decline in the quarter? And then maybe how do you think about occupancy cadence over the course of the rest of this year versus maybe where you were a couple of months ago?

我知道您不提供季度租賃到期時間表，而只提供年度租賃到期時間表。但也許只是幫助我們彌補本季現場入住率下降的差距？那麼，您認為今年剩餘時間的入住節奏與幾個月前的入住節奏相比如何？

Thanks, Steve. Yes. So look, the other side of the equation that you need to consider in looking at an occupancy drop in any time period as what are the -- what's the role that's coming up. So we had a disproportionate amount of leases rolling in the first quarter. So while I would describe our retention is pretty good at 73%. Just a lot rolling there, and that caused the drop. I'd characterize the drop is not dissimilar from history and very much in line with our expectations.

謝謝，史蒂夫。是的。因此，在觀察任何時間段內的入住率下降時，你需要考慮等式的另一邊，即將出現的角色是什麼。因此，我們在第一季的租賃量不成比例。因此，我認為我們的保留率達到 73%，相當不錯。那裡滾動的東西很多，導致下降。我認為這種下降與歷史情況並無不同，而且非常符合我們的預期。

As for the second part of your question, in the stress test that we looked at or let me go back a quarter, our prior guidance, imagine that we were going to lose some occupancy over the course of the year and build back up by the end of the year. One of the main changes in the stress test is that we are going to lose that occupancy as planned and even more, and it's going to basically stay at that level until the end of the year, and that's reflected when we looked at the stressed scenario.

至於你問題的第二部分，在我們研究的壓力測試中，或者讓我回顧一個季度，我們之前的指導是，想像一下我們將在一年內失去一些入住率，並在年底前重新恢復。壓力測試的主要變化之一是，我們將按計劃失去入住率，甚至更多，基本上將保持在這個水平直到年底，這在我們考慮壓力情景時有所反映。

Ronald Kamdem, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的羅納德‧坎登 (Ronald Kamdem)。

Just going back to sort of the stress test and thinking about sort of the specific tenant groups, particularly 3PLs and sort of their impact in the Inland Empire West. Just sort of curious, just real time, how you guys are thinking about that group and what sort of the assumptions that are being baked in.

回到壓力測試，思考特定的租戶群體，特別是第三方物流以及它們對內陸帝國西部的影響。只是有點好奇，只是即時的，你們是如何看待這個群體的，以及其中存在什麼樣的假設。

It's Chris. I'll jump in. So what I think you're talking about and is worth covering here is simply this category of Asian 3PLs. This is a category that faces new risks. But to keep it in perspective, the US business of these Asian 3PLs are just a little over 1.5% of our rent. Now policy is still evolving, and let's not speculate here.

是克里斯。我會跳進去。所以我認為您所談論的並且值得在這裡討論的只是亞洲第三方物流這一類別。這是一個面臨新風險的類別。但客觀來看，這些亞洲第三方物流公司的美國業務僅占我們租金的 1.5% 多一點。現在政策還在發展中，我們不要在這裡猜測。

But as you come to your own views, a few things keep in mind. One, these customers are growing in response to just general e-commerce growth as well as state side inventory fulfillment models. These companies have found a product market fit and product will need to flow.

但是當你形成自己的觀點時，請記住幾件事。首先，這些客戶的成長只是對一般電子商務成長以及美國庫存履行模式的回應。這些公司已經找到了適合的產品市場，產品需要流通。

These companies have also taken steps to mitigate risk. They're pulling forward inventories. They are diversifying their sources; their production sources and they're also growing their domestic customer footprint. Now ultimately, their performance is going to be subject to how policies evolve from here, and we will keep you informed as the situation changes.

這些公司也採取了措施來降低風險。他們正在提前庫存。他們正在使其來源多樣化；他們的生產來源，他們也在擴大國內客戶足跡。現在，他們的表現最終將取決於今後政策如何發展，我們將隨時向大家通報情況的變化。

Yes. The other thing I would add to that is that if you just try this on your own go on some of the big e-commerce sites and try to buy some phone charges for your iPhone or iPad or pretty much anything of that ilk. And you'll see that it's sold out and don't know when we're going to get some more. So the demand is clearly there. But the challenge is getting the inventory in to fulfill that demand. So I think the underlying band is pretty good.

是的。我想補充的另一件事是，如果你只是自己嘗試一下，可以去一些大型電子商務網站，嘗試為你的 iPhone 或 iPad 或任何類似的東西購買一些手機充電器。你會發現它已經賣完了，不知道什麼時候我們才能再進貨。因此，需求顯然是存在的。但挑戰在於如何獲得庫存來滿足這項需求。所以我認為這支樂團的基礎是相當不錯的。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

I guess, there's been recent news about Amazon being back in the market. Can you talk a little bit about what that means for overall demand, how that can impact the overall industry? And if how that has influenced pricing power in the past and that can have an impact this time?

我想，最近有消息指出亞馬遜重返市場。您能否談談這對整體需求意味著什麼，以及這將如何影響整個產業？這在過去如何影響定價權，以及這次是否也會產生影響？

Thanks, Michael. This is Dan. We have definitely seen Amazon in the market. As a matter of fact, we've signed some pretty good deals with them this year. And we're seeing the overall e-commerce segment of our customer base very strong right now back to high teens, 20% of our overall leasing. So really pleased with what we're seeing from them.

謝謝，麥可。這是丹。我們確實在市場上看到了亞馬遜。事實上，今年我們已經與他們簽署了一些非常好的協議。我們看到，我們客戶群中的整體電子商務部分目前非常強勁，已回升至十幾歲，占我們整體租賃的 20%。我們對他們所取得的成績感到非常高興。

Craig Mailman, Citi.

花旗銀行的克雷格‧梅爾曼 (Craig Mailman)。

It's [Jason] here with Craig. In the opening remarks, you talked about the company looking to take advantage of opportunities. I was hoping you could discuss that in more detail will be the opportunities you're starting to see emerge or kind of trying to keep eye on where you would look to lean into, if possible?

這是 [Jason] 和 Craig 在一起。在開場白中，您談到了公司尋求利用機會。我希望您能更詳細地討論一下您開始看到的機會，或者如果可能的話，您嘗試關注哪些方面值得關注？

Too soon to -- for anybody thinking about putting something in the market or selling something, certainly the last two weeks have not been the time to execute that strategy. So I think these things will take a while to play out. And depends on how bad things get. There are two things going on. One, there's pressure on rents, obviously.

現在還為時過早——對於任何考慮將某種東西投放到市場或出售某種東西的人來說，過去兩週肯定不是執行這一策略的時候。所以我認為這些事情需要一段時間才能實現。並且取決於情況變得有多糟糕。有兩件事正在發生。首先，顯然存在租金壓力。

And second, I don't know where the 10 year is going to go, and cap rates are kind of correlated with that. So I think most people in this environment are going to wait and see for some clarity. But depending on how bad this thing gets, it could be six months, maybe nine months before you start seeing some opportunities. And let's not speculate about how bad it's going to get or whether this is going to be a blip. I don't know. I mean it changes every day.

其次，我不知道 10 年期利率會達到什麼水平，而資本化率與此有一定相關性。因此我認為，在這種環境下，大多數人都會等待並尋求一些明確的答案。但根據情況的嚴重程度，可能要過六個月，甚至九個月，你才會開始看到一些機會。我們不要猜測情況會變得多糟，或者這只是曇花一現。我不知道。我的意思是它每天都在變化。

Caitlin Burrows, Goldman Sachs.

凱特琳·伯羅斯，高盛。

Maybe just on lease gestation. I know it was above average in 4Q and then it was up again in 1Q, which makes sense. But can you go through some more of what you're hearing from customers and potential customers with respect to kind of who is making decisions today? What's driving them versus who's dragging out that decision-making timeline? And what could make them ultimately make a decision and then the group that might just say for now, we're standing on the sidelines?

也許只是在租下孕育。我知道它在第四季度高於平均水平，然後在第一季又上升了，這是有道理的。但是，您能否進一步談談您從客戶和潛在客戶那裡聽到的關於今天誰在做決定的信息？是什麼在驅使他們，又是誰在拖延決策時間表？那麼什麼可以讓他們最終做出決定，然後這個群體可能會說，現在我們只能袖手旁觀呢？

It's Chris. I'll take a stab at that. So first, you're reading the statistics correctly, gestation was elevated in the quarter. So that's really happened stance and mix in the first quarter. So there's going to be some seasonality as it relates to December and November deals that just take a bit longer with the holidays.

是克里斯。我會嘗試一下。首先，您讀到的統計數據是正確的，本季的懷孕率有所提高。所以這確實在第一季發生了。因此，與 12 月和 11 月的交易相關的季節性因素會比較多，只是假期期間交易時間會更長一些。

And also the trend we discussed as it relates to preelection opportunities landing that continued into January, lifting the number. We think it will continue to remain elevated. There is a range of customers that are talking to us that have growth requirements.

而且，我們討論的與選舉前機會下降有關的趨勢一直持續到一月份，從而增加了數量。我們認為它將繼續保持高位。有很多客戶正在與我們溝通，他們有成長需求。

They have its need for space and they just need a clear economic backdrop, tariff backdrop to make decisions. But there are a handful of customers making decisions. Some are responding to supply chain volatility and bringing in goods urgently for their own tactics.

他們需要空間，他們只是需要一個明確的經濟背景、關稅背景來做出決定。但做出決定的顧客卻屈指可數。一些企業正在應對供應鏈波動，並緊急進口貨物以採取自己的策略。

Yes. I think you see that in the 3PL utilization rates because that's the first place you're going to go. And remember, a lot of these people have been in delaying decision mode for a number of years. And if their underlying businesses are solid, they can't do that anymore. Perhaps the most surprising thing that I've seen is that even in the last two weeks, we signed a lot of leases and we've signed build-to-suits.

是的。我認為您會在 3PL 利用率中看到這一點，因為這是您要去的第一個地方。請記住，很多人多年來一直處於拖延決策的狀態。如果他們的基礎業務穩固，他們就不能再這樣做了。也許我看到的最令人驚訝的事情是，即使在過去兩週內，我們也簽署了許多租約，並簽署了客製化建築合約。

And these customers could have just said, okay, let's punt on those until we have clarity. So I'm actually very encouraged. And you can't take two weeks and extrapolate too much, but actually in those two weeks, the number of build-to-suits that we have signed are significantly larger in terms of square footage and rent than what we normally signed for a two-week period going back a couple of years comparing. But it's two weeks, so who knows. But there are definitely people out there making decisions.

這些客戶可能會說，好吧，讓我們先推遲這些問題，直到問題弄清楚為止。所以我其實感到非常鼓舞。你不能用兩週的時間推斷太多，但實際上在這兩週內，我們簽署的定制建築數量在面積和租金方面比過去幾年我們通常在兩週內簽署的數量要大得多。但已經是兩週了，所以誰知道呢。但肯定有人在做決定。

And I wouldn't be surprised if the vast majority are going to try to delay it as much as possible. But water is building behind the dam. It's going to break at some point.

如果絕大多數人都試圖盡可能地拖延這一進程，我也不會感到驚訝。但大壩後面的水正在不斷上漲。到某個時候它就會斷裂。

Vikram Malhotra, Mizuho.

瑞穗的維克拉姆·馬洛特拉 (Vikram Malhotra)。

I just wanted to clarify kind of the stress test scenarios. Maybe if you can give us a little more color. You talked about where you thought the occupancy was in the down case. Do you mind just giving us a sense of like where did rent -- market rent shake out for the quarter, where there's sort of net absorption in your market to take out for the quarter? And then if you take those other components, where are they in the stress test in terms of low end and high end?

我只是想澄清一下壓力測試場景。也許你可以提供我們更多一些色彩。您談到了您認為下行情況下的佔用情況。您介意告訴我們本季的租金－市場租金如何變化，本季您的市場淨吸收量是多少？然後，如果您考慮其他組件，那麼它們在壓力測試中的低端和高端位置在哪裡？

Okay. I'll take on the stress test description, and Chris can hit some of what happened during the quarter. Basically, in the GFC, what we had seen in the first 12-month period at least, was market occupancy decline of 170 basis points. We took that in added it to our -- the decline that we had already. And as I mentioned earlier, just had it sustained through the end of the year.

好的。我將負責壓力測試描述，Chris 可以介紹本季發生的一些情況。基本上，在全球金融危機中，我們至少在前 12 個月看到市場入住率下降了 170 個基點。我們將其納入到我們已經出現的衰退之中。正如我之前提到的，這種勢頭一直持續到年底。

We had seen market rents drop 18%. We brought that into the forecast had it affected immediately instead of playing out over some months, just took it upfront. And then the last piece is bad debt. Our experience in the GFC was bad debt of 56 basis points. We actually have integrated a higher level there by picking up parts of our portfolio have something that's closer to 75 basis points on an annualized run rate. So we think we hit it pretty hard.

我們看到市場租金下降了18%。我們將其納入預測中，希望它能立即產生影響，而不是在幾個月內顯現出來，而是提前考慮。最後一點是壞帳。我們在全球金融危機的經歷是壞帳高達 56 個基點。實際上，透過挑選部分投資組合，我們已經整合了更高的水平，其年化運行率接近 75 個基點。因此我們認為我們遇到了很大困難。

So on conditions in the first quarter, we saw an absorption 21 million square feet. We saw global rents decline 1.5%. Almost all of that, by the way was Southern California globally, excluding Southern California rents only dipped about 50 basis points with many markets flat or rising.

因此，就第一季的情況來看，我們的吸收量為 2,100 萬平方英尺。我們看到全球租金下降了 1.5%。順便說一下，全球幾乎所有這些地區都是南加州，除了南加州外，租金僅下降約 50 個基點，許多市場持平或上漲。

Yes. And the thing I want to make sure everybody understands here. We are not setting up a new range. This is not a prediction. We just wanted to know what's the worst thing that can happen. Of course, the worst thing that can happen is nuclear war and this is all academic. But going back and looking at the last four or five major downturns and taking the worst on every parameter on every independent variable, combining it together and then adding some basically still gets us to the bottom of the range.

是的。我想確保每個人都理解這一點。我們不會設立新的範圍。這不是一個預測。我們只是想知道可能發生的最糟糕的事情是什麼。當然，最糟糕的情況就是核戰，而這都只是理論而已。但回顧過去四到五次重大衰退，對每個獨立變數的每個參數取最差的數值，將它們組合在一起，然後添加一些，基本上仍然會讓我們處於範圍的底部。

But please, this is not a prediction. We are incapable of making a prediction in this environment. And there is no data and we have more of it than anybody can power us to confidently predict anything for you. So we just wanted to know how bad it could get.

但請注意，這不是預測。在這種環境下我們無法做出預測。而且沒有數據，而我們擁有的數據比任何人都多，無法讓我們自信地為您預測任何事情。所以我們只是想知道情況會變得多糟。

Ki Bin Kim, Truist Securities.

Ki Bin Kim，Truist 證券公司。

Do you have a lens of what the level of import tariffs, your average customer could possibly bear? I know there's a wide range of customers, but this high-level question. And I'm not sure if the 10% tariff is a win for your customers? Or does it have to be at 5%, just any kind of thoughts you can share?

您是否了解一般客戶能夠負擔的進口關稅水準是多少？我知道客戶群很廣泛，但這是一個高層次的問題。我不確定 10% 的關稅是否對您的客戶有利？或必須是 5%，您能分享任何想法嗎？

Yes. Again, this is pure speculation because we haven't had any discussions or these kinds of tariffs. I think since the turn century. But my sense is that given the way this policy was rolled out, I think people were prepared for something around 10%. But on April 2, basically, I would say if you pulled our average customer, they would have said, A, we don't know and B, it's going to be a lot higher. And then with the pause, I think they feel somewhat a sense of relief.

是的。再說一次，這純粹是猜測，因為我們還沒有進行過任何討論或討論此類關稅。我認為自世紀之交以來。但我的感覺是，考慮到這項政策的實施方式，我認為人們已經做好了 10% 左右的準備。但在 4 月 2 日，基本上，我想說如果你拉攏我們的普通客戶，他們會說，A，我們不知道，B，價格會高得多。然後隨著停頓，我想他們會感到有點鬆了一口氣。

I think that the economy can absorb a 10% tariff. But it will change how these inventories are routed. To some extent and where they come from. I think net-net, if you go beyond sort of what happens next month or next quarter.

我認為經濟可以負擔10%的關稅。但它將改變這些庫存的運輸方式。在某種程度上以及它們來自哪裡。我認為，如果你關注下個月或下個季度發生的事情，那麼淨淨值就會隨之變化。

I think if I were going to predict anything, I would say Mexico would be a big beneficiary of all this, so with Brazil, and we would probably have a coming from China for sure. And the country is surrounding around China in Asia would have a higher here.

我想，如果我要預測任何事情，我會說墨西哥將是這一切的最大受益者，巴西也是如此，我們肯定會從中國獲得收益。而亞洲週邊國家在中國的佔比會更高。

And Europe, I think is going to probably tread water or maybe decline a bit because there's still -- Germany, the big exporter is very focused on internal combustion cars. And I think those are going to come under pressure. So that's what I think is going to happen. But who knows?

而歐洲，我認為可能會停滯不前或略有衰退，因為歐洲仍然有——最大的出口國德國非常專注於內燃機汽車。我認為這些都會面臨壓力。我認為這就是即將發生的事情。但誰知道呢？

Vince Tibone, Green Street.

文斯提博內 (Vince Tibone)，綠街。

I wanted to follow up on the comment that disconnected world requires more warehouse space. Could you just elaborate on that remark and how you arrived at that conclusion?

我想跟進一下關於斷開連接的世界需要更多倉庫空間的評論。您能否詳細說明一下這一評論以及您是如何得出這一結論的？

Yes, Vince, let me tell you a story. I was in Brazil when Brexit was announced. By the time I got on the plane and landed in San Francisco, the market had discounted the value of our UK portfolio by more than its entire value, okay? And I was bombarded by questions of what's going to happen and what do you think is going to happen to your UK business. So the RD -- written off more than 100% of the value of our UK business and the stock during that 10-hour flight.

是的，文斯，讓我來跟你講個故事。英國宣布脫歐時我正在巴西。當我登上飛機並降落在舊金山時，市場對我們英國投資組合的價值的折讓已經超過了其全部價值，好嗎？我被一連串問題轟炸了：接下來會發生什麼事？您認為您的英國業務會發生什麼？因此，在那次 10 小時的飛行中，RD 註銷了我們英國業務和股票價值的 100% 以上。

What did happen? For the ensuing three or four years, the need for inventory increased both in the UK and in the continent because those supply chains that were optimized across Europe had to be rebuilt for the continent and for the UK separately and that required net more space.

到底發生了什麼事？在接下來的三、四年裡，英國和歐洲大陸的庫存需求都在增加，因為那些在歐洲優化的供應鏈必須分別為歐洲大陸和英國重建，而這需要更多的空間。

So that's what happens when you go through these transitions, and by the way, throughout that period, occupancy remained at 99% in the UK. So these things don't play out the way some of the newspaper articles talk about. And we believe that duplication of what is a highly engineered supply chain during times of uncertainty will lead to more inventory, and therefore, more space to put it.

這就是經歷這些轉變時發生的情況，順便說一句，在整個期間，英國的入住率保持在 99%。所以這些事情並不像一些報紙文章所談論的那樣。我們相信，在不確定的時期，複製高度工程化的供應鏈將帶來更多的庫存，從而帶來更多的空間。

Blaine Heck, Wells Fargo.

布萊恩·赫克，富國銀行。

Can you talk a little bit more about any change you might be seeing in demand from your fund investors, how they're thinking about their allocation to the industrial sector overall and current pricing and I guess, whether you'd expect to see increasing redemption requests in the funds in the coming quarters?

您能否再多談談您可能看到的基金投資者需求的任何變化，他們如何看待對工業部門的整體配置和當前定價，以及您是否預計未來幾季基金的贖回請求會增加？

The answer is, we were seeing a really strong, positive and leading up to April 2 and lesser discussions and lots of interest and inquiries and reversing rates and all that, more than any time, I would say, since 2022.

答案是，我們看到了非常強勁、積極的勢頭，並且在 4 月 2 日之前，討論有所減少，但興趣、詢問和逆轉利率等都很多，我想說，比 2022 年以來的任何時候都要多。

After April 2, I think people are waiting to see what the denominator effect is going to be. I mean it's not a real estate question. Real estate as a percentage of allocation of the overall portfolio. And the stock market is down, I don't know, teens. So by definition, even with increasing real estate allocations, it could be that the absolute dollars available for real estate are going to go down.

4 月 2 日之後，我認為人們正在等待觀察分母效應會是什麼。我的意思是這不是一個房地產問題。房地產佔整體投資組合配置的百分比。股市下跌了，我不知道，青少年。因此，根據定義，即使房地產配置增加，可用於房地產的絕對資金也可能會下降。

Also, a lot of institutions have committed maybe over admitted to some private asset classes, venture, private equity, et cetera, et cetera. And the liquidity coming out of those coming back from those is certainly going to be curtailed. I mean there are fewer IPOs that are going to happen this uncertain environment and liquidity events are pure and further between.

此外，許多機構可能已經對一些私人資產類別、創投、私募股權等進行了過度投資。而從這些國家流出的流動性肯定會受到限制。我的意思是，在這種不確定的環境下，IPO 數量會減少，流動性事件也會減少。

So I think it's the denominator effect that will affect -- that will determine how much money will come out. Not so much interest in industrial real estate, which was really good and getting better.

所以我認為分母效應將會影響——它將決定會產生多少錢。人們對工業房地產不太感興趣，但工業房地產的情況確實很好，而且越來越好。

Mike Mueller, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的麥克·穆勒。

How do you see UPS (technical difficulty) downsizing the Amazon exposures impacting your next couple of years?

您如何看待 UPS（技術難題）減少對亞馬遜的曝光度會對您未來幾年產生什麼影響？

Mike, could you repeat that, please?

麥克，你能再說一次嗎？

Yes. So sorry about this. How do you see UPS downsizing of its Amazon exposure impacting you over the next couple of years?

是的。對此我深感抱歉。您認為 UPS 縮減其在亞馬遜的業務規模將在未來幾年對您產生什麼影響？

Our business with UPS has continued, and we've done actually some pretty significant leases with them lately. So I don't know. That's not something that's come up in our discussions.

我們與 UPS 的業務往來仍在繼續，而且我們最近實際上與他們簽訂了一些相當重要的租賃協議。所以我不知道。這不是我們討論中提到的問題。

Samir Khanal, Bank of America.

薩米爾·卡納爾，美國銀行。

Just looking at the smaller spaces below 100,000 square feet, that 92% occupancy seems a bit lower versus the other sizes. I guess that was a bit surprising. Can you maybe provide color on that and maybe markets that are seeing that space seeing more challenges than others? Just trying to understand usually that type of space, I thought it is a bit less supply and would have been faring a little bit better. Just want a bit more color.

僅看面積低於 100,000 平方英尺的較小空間，92% 的入住率與其他規模相比似乎略低。我想這確實有點令人驚訝。您能否對此進行詳細說明，也許看到該領域的市場比其他市場面臨更多挑戰？只是想了解通常那種類型的空間，我認為它的供應量會少一些，而且情況會好一些。只是想要多一點顏色。

Thanks, Samir. That 100,000 square foot and less customer base is typically actually the lowest occupancy you see if you look quarter-over-quarter in our supplemental. There's nothing unusual this quarter or last quarter that would suggest there's any issue there as it relates to markets where there may be issues.

謝謝，薩米爾。如果您查看我們補充資料中的季度環比數據，您會發現 100,000 平方英尺及更少的客戶群實際上是最低的入住率。本季或上個季度並沒有什麼異常情況表明存在任何問題，因為它與可能存在問題的市場有關。

Yes, I'll jump in. So the strongest markets, first off, are global. Being international is great in this environment, whether it's Europe, whether it's Latin America, whether it's Japan. As it relates to the American markets, we've seen a broadening of strength across categories. So the Southeast has been and the Sunbelt has been resilient, whether it's Seattle, Nashville, Houston and increasingly, Dallas.

是的，我會加入的。因此，首先最強大的市場是全球性的。在這種環境下，無論是在歐洲、拉丁美洲或日本，國際化都是好事。就美國市場而言，我們看到各個類別的實力都在擴大。因此，東南部和陽光地帶一直具有韌性，無論是西雅圖、納許維爾、休士頓，還是達拉斯。

And we're also seeing an inflection and improvement in the Midwest. So pick a market like Indianapolis. That's one that's really moved a lot in the last year.

我們也看到中西部地區的情況出現轉變和改善。因此，選擇像印第安納波利斯這樣的市場。這是去年確實發生很大變化的事情。

Yes. One more thing, Samir, is the smaller spaces actually have shorter lease terms. So that's where you see a lot more churn. And certainly, if you look at that customer base, it's going to be the smaller businesses that may have more of an impact. So we're paying very close attention to it, but we're just not seeing anything today.

是的。還有一件事，薩米爾，較小的空間實際上租賃期限較短。所以這就是你看到更多客戶流失的地方。當然，如果你看一下客戶群，你會發現小型企業可能會產生更大的影響。所以我們對此密切關注，但今天卻沒有看到任何進展。

Yes. And they have lower credit by and large. They're small customers with lower credit. So in if you believe in a recession scenario, that sector is going to get hit more. But you said something that's really important. I do agree that replacement costs for that product is significantly higher than values today. So there is some protection on the supply of smaller spaces. They're very expensive to build.

是的。而且他們的信用總體較低。他們是信用較低的小客戶。因此，如果您相信經濟衰退的前景，那麼該行業將受到更大的打擊。但您說了一些非常重要的事情。我確實同意該產品的更換成本明顯高於今天的價值。因此，較小空間的供應受到一定的保護。建造它們非常昂貴。

And while I'm on that topic, let me answer a question that hasn't come up, which is that in this environment, and its inflationary effect, we are seeing replacement costs go up significantly. And with the 10-year backing up, the yield requirements on development has gone up significantly.

既然談到這個話題，讓我先回答一個尚未提出的問題，那就是在這種環境及其通膨效應下，我們看到重置成本大幅上升。而隨著10年的倒退，對開發的收益要求也大幅上升。

So the combination of those two means that the replacement cost rents that will justify new construction are now much higher than they were a month ago. And I think that bodes well for the long-term supply picture here, less supply. Thank you, Samir.

因此，這兩者結合起來意味著，證明新建築合理的重置成本租金現在比一個月前高得多。我認為這對長期供應狀況來說是個好兆頭，供應減少。謝謝你，薩米爾。

Brendan Lynch, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布倫丹·林奇。

The 6.2% cash same-store NOI in the first quarter was quite strong compared to your annual guidance for 4.5%. Can you just walk us through what your expectations are for the cadence throughout the rest of the year?

第一季 6.2% 的現金同店淨利與你們 4.5% 的年度預期相比相當強勁。您能否向我們介紹一下您對今年剩餘時間節奏的期望？

Well, it's going to be influenced mostly by occupancy from here. That's a stat that's pretty volatile to the quarter. Year-over-year, I'll say, differences in free rent for leases that are commencing within the quarter. So it can be volatile for that -- net effect of both are going to be largely a function from here of the year-over-year occupancy changes, which we've already made clear, we think, in our base case, that was going to march down and in our stress case, still the case and a little more so.

嗯，這將主要受到這裡的佔用率的影響。這是一個本季相當不穩定的數據。我想說的是，與去年同期相比，本季內開始的租約的免租金存在差異。因此，它可能會很不穩定——兩者的淨效應將在很大程度上取決於同比入住率的變化，我們已經明確表示，我們認為，在我們的基本情況下，入住率將會下降，在我們的壓力情況下，情況仍然如此，甚至會有所下降。

Yes. The main driver of that is the mark-to-market. Basically it's not, at this point, a change in near-term increases in market rent and occupancies are tough to predict, but a program of bet are probably going to come down a little bit if this thing continues.

是的。其主要驅動力是市價調整。基本上，目前來看，市場租金和入住率的短期成長變化很難預測，但如果這種情況持續下去，賭注計畫可能會有所下降。

Michael Carroll, RBC.

邁克爾·卡羅爾，RBC。

I had a more basic leasing question. So how long does it typically take from an industrial lease to be signed versus when it actually commences. So if activity was pretty healthy in the first quarter and slowed down 20% in April, and I understand it's only two weeks so far. When could that actually start to impact lease amendments in your overall occupancy? I mean, are we talking about this being a 2Q type issue? Or is it more like a 3Q type issue?

我有一個更基本的租賃問題。那麼從簽署工業租賃到實際開始通常需要多長時間？因此，如果第一季的活動相當健康，而 4 月放緩了 20%，而且我知道到目前為止只有兩週。這實際上何時會開始影響您整體入住率的租約修改？我的意思是，我們討論的是一個第二季度類型的問題嗎？或者它更像是 3Q 類型的問題？

I'll give you a couple of facts here and others may jump in. This is Chris. So renewals can be signed well in advance anywhere from 3 months to 12 months, depending on the size of the lease. And then new lease commencements can be really rapid. We've had a handful of customers want to move in a couple of weeks.

我在這裡向你提供一些事實，其他人可能會加入。這是克里斯。因此，續約可以提前 3 個月到 12 個月簽署，具體取決於租約的規模。然後新的租約就可以很快開始。我們有幾個客戶想在幾週內搬家。

Up to order of magnitude maybe 45 days. So it really depends on the mix in terms of new versus renewal and also the size.

最多可能需要 45 天。因此，這實際上取決於新產品與更新產品的組合以及規模。

Yes, new buildings, it takes longer because they've got to build it out.

是的，新建築需要更長的時間，因為他們必須把它建好。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 John Kim。

Going back about a month ago, Hamid, you discussed in the Bloomberg interview that the change in tone has slowed in the past couple of weeks prior to the interview, not really reflected in the data, but that has happened. So I guess my question is, if the tariff uncertainty is resolved, will demand completely recover to where it was earlier this year? Or were there other reasons tenants were acting more cautious pre-April 2?

大約一個月前，哈米德，您在接受彭博社採訪時討論過，在採訪前的幾周里，語氣的變化已經放緩，雖然數據中並沒有真正反映出來，但事實確實如此。所以我想我的問題是，如果關稅不確定性得到解決，需求是否會完全恢復到今年早些時候的水平？或者有其他原因導致租戶在 4 月 2 日之前採取更謹慎的行動？

No other reason that I can think of. And by the way, if I knew the answer to your second question, I would ask you, where do you think, the market is going to end up at the end of the year? I don't know. I mean short term, it's very hard to predict these things. That's why I don't even try. But long term is what we're folks focused in the ramp here and the path to that long term can take many different directions.

我想不出其他原因。順便說一句，如果我知道你第二個問題的答案，我會問你，你認為到今年年底市場將會走向何方？我不知道。我的意思是，短期內很難預測這些事情。這就是我為什麼不敢嘗試的原因。但從長遠來看，我們關注的重點是實現這個長期目標，而實現這個長期目標的道路可以有許多不同的方向。

Nicholas Yulico, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Nicholas Yulico。

I wanted to go back to the -- some of the net absorption data you talked about. I think, Chris, you said in the first quarter, it was $21 million. A year ago, it was in the first quarter it was $27 million and you guys were saying that wasn't a great number, and you ended up reducing a net absorption forecast for the year.

我想回顧一下您談到的一些淨吸收數據。克里斯，我想你說過第一季的收入是 2100 萬美元。一年前，第一季的淨吸收量為 2,700 萬美元，你們說這不是一個好數字，最終降低了當年的淨吸收量預測。

So just trying to understand is, is it right to look at that number year-over-year because based on that, it feels like this first quarter for the overall market wasn't as good as it was a year ago, and I'm not sure what we should be reading into that versus PLD having what you thought was sort of a better leasing quarter overall, but maybe the market is not also reflecting that?

所以只是想了解的是，與去年同期相比，查看這個數字是否正確，因為基於這個數字，感覺整個市場的第一季度不如一年前那麼好，我不確定我們應該如何解讀，而您認為 PLD 的整體租賃季度表現更好，但也許市場也沒有反映出這一點？

I think you answered the question for me. I completely agree with the way you position that, which is, yes, the first quarter is seasonal. It's a seasonally light quarter. So the $21 million annualizes to around $105 million, $110 million there can absolutely be variability in the numbers, as I think you postulated in your question.

我想你回答了我的問題。我完全同意你的定位，是的，第一季是季節性的。這是一個季節性淡季。因此，2100 萬美元年化後約為 1.05 億美元、1.1 億美元，這些數字絕對會有所不同，我想正如您在問題中所假設的那樣。

I think more important to us is the conversation we're having with our customers and their growth requirements and their growth outlook. So that's how we made our assessment.

我認為對我們來說更重要的是我們與客戶進行的對話以及他們的成長需求和成長前景。這就是我們所做的評估。

Yes. Last year, we didn't have an election. So a lot of the decisions on leasing that would have turned into actual leasing and occupancy in the first quarter would have been made in the fourth quarter which was still and unknown from an election point of view. So there was a big uncertainty that didn't exist in the prior year. We used to have a role in here that absorption in -- throughout the year was one, two, three, four.

是的。去年，我們沒有舉行選舉。因此，許多原本會在第一季轉化為實際租賃和入住的租賃決策將在第四季度做出，而從選舉的角度來看，第四季度的租賃決策仍是一個未知數。因此，存在著前一年不存在的巨大不確定性。我們曾經在這裡扮演一個角色，那就是全年專注於一、二、三、四。

Now I don't -- it's leveled out a little bit from that. It's not quite that extreme. But actually, the normal seasonal pattern is that absorption and occupancy and leasing of space increases throughout the year.

現在我不知道——從那時起情況已經稍微平穩了一點。情況還沒那麼極端。但實際上，正常的季節性模式是，全年吸收、佔用和租賃的空間都在增加。

Let me add one more point here. Actually, something Prologis can control. We had about 12% of our rent roll rolling this year. We actually have put 7% of that in the bank already. So we're about 60% our way through that with only 5% of that left to go. So we're in pretty good shape at this point here.

讓我在這裡再補充一點。事實上，這是普洛斯可以控制的。今年我們的租金收入約有 12% 滾動成長。事實上我們已經把其中的 7% 存入銀行了。因此，我們已經完成了 60%，只剩下 5% 了。所以我們現在的情況非常好。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

史蒂夫‧薩誇 (Steve Sakwa)，Evercore ISI。

Tim, just to go back, I just want to make sure I understand that there's kind of the base case and there's your kind of work case scenario. But in your base case, and you did mention that in the last couple of weeks, leasing volumes were down 20%. I guess I'm just trying to figure out what -- I guess, what level of leasing activity are you assuming in sort of your base case or guidance in terms of either reduction or increases in leasing kind of from here through the end of the year?

提姆，回過頭來說，我只是想確保我理解有一種基本情況，還有你的工作狀況。但在您的基本情況下，您確實提到在過去幾週內，租賃量下降了 20%。我想我只是想弄清楚——從現在到年底，您假設的租賃活動水平是減少還是增加？

Look, I described It's hard to a number on that because ultimately, we reflected in the occupancy drop that we think is going to be more severe and stay low, as I mentioned. That's a mix of both lower retention as well as a slower pace of new leasing.

瞧，我描述過，這很難用數字來表示，因為最終，我們反映在入住率下降中，我們認為這種情況將會更加嚴重，並且會保持在低位，正如我提到的那樣。這是由於保留率較低以及新租賃速度較慢所造成的。

And the way we tested all that was put it through some ranges. So it's just one of those things that is unknowable, but I think the end result which ultimately drives occupancy, same-store earnings, we've got covered in the stress test.

我們測試所有這些的方式是將其放在一些範圍內。所以這只是不可知的事情之一，但我認為最終的結果將決定入住率、同店收益，我們已經在壓力測試中涵蓋了這些因素。

So that was the last question. So to close out, I just want to make a couple of remarks around the fact that no doubt we're in a very fluid environment right now. The good news is we are built for this. And I really want to thank our teams out there for their execution and focus. Thanks for joining the call, and we'll speak to you next quarter.

這是最後一個問題。最後，我只想就我們目前所處的環境毫無疑問非常不穩定這一事實發表幾點評論。好消息是，我們就是為此而生的。我真的要感謝我們團隊的執行力和專注力。感謝您參加電話會議，我們將在下個季度與您聯繫。

And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。