Packaging Corp of America (PKG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining Packaging Corporation of America's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings results conference call. Your host for today will be Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of PCA. Upon conclusion of his narrative, there will be a question and answer session. Please also note today's event is being recorded.

大家早安。感謝您參加美國包裝公司 2024 年第四季和全年收益業績電話會議。今天的主持人是PCA董事長兼執行長Mark Kowlzan。他的敘述結束後，將有一個問答環節。另請注意，今天的活動正在記錄。

And at this time, I'd like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Kowlzan. Please proceed when you are ready.

現在，我想將電話會議轉給 Kowlzan 先生。準備好後請繼續。

Thanks for the introduction, Jamie, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in Packaging Corporation of America's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings release conference call. Again, I'm Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO of PCA. And with me on the call today is Tom Hassfurther, Executive Vice President, who runs the Packaging business; and Bob Mundy, our Chief Financial Officer. As usual, I'll begin the call with an overview of the fourth quarter and the full year results, and then I'll be turning the call over to Tom and Bob, who'll provide further details. And then I'll wrap things up, and we'd be glad to take questions.

感謝傑米的介紹，大家早安，感謝您參加美國包裝公司 2024 年第四季和全年收益發布電話會議。再次重申，我是 PCA 董事長兼執行長馬克‧科爾贊 (Mark Kowlzan)。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有負責包裝業務的執行副總裁 Tom Hassfurther；以及我們的財務長鮑勃·芒迪（Bob Mundy）。像往常一樣，我將首先介紹第四季度和全年業績，然後將電話轉給湯姆和鮑勃，他們將提供更多詳細資訊。然後我將結束本次會議，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Yesterday, we reported fourth quarter 2024 net income of $221 million or $2.45 per share. Excluding special items, fourth quarter 2024 net income was $222 million or $2.47 per share compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 net income of $192 million or $2.13 per share. Net sales were a fourth quarter record $2.1 billion in 2024 and $1.9 billion in 2023. Total company EBITDA for the fourth quarter excluding special items, was $439 million in 2024 and $394 million in 2023. Excluding special items, we also reported full year 2024 earnings of $814 million or $9.04 per share compared to 2023's earnings of $784 million or $8.70 per share.

昨天，我們報告了 2024 年第四季的淨收入為 2.21 億美元，即每股 2.45 美元。不包括特殊項目，2024 年第四季淨收入為 2.22 億美元或每股 2.47 美元，而 2023 年第四季淨收入為 1.92 億美元或每股 2.13 美元。2024 年第四季淨銷售額創歷史新高，達 21 億美元，2023 年第四季淨銷售額達 19 億美元。第四季公司總 EBITDA（不含特殊項目）在 2024 年為 4.39 億美元，在 2023 年為 3.94 億美元。除特殊項目外，我們還報告 2024 年全年收益為 8.14 億美元或每股 9.04 美元，而 2023 年的收益為 7.84 億美元或每股 8.70 美元。

Net sales were $8.4 billion in 2024 and $7.8 billion in 2023. Excluding special items, total company EBITDA in 2024 were $1.6 billion in both 2024 and 2023. Details of all special items for the year 2024 and 2023 were included in the schedules that accompanied the earnings press release. Excluding special items, the $0.34 per share increase in fourth quarter earnings for 2024 compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 was driven by higher prices and mix $0.52 and volume $0.40 in the Packaging segment, higher prices and mix $0.02 and volume $0.02 in the Paper segment. Lower freight and logistics expenses benefited us $0.06.

2024 年淨銷售額為 84 億美元，2023 年淨銷售額為 78 億美元。除特殊項目外，2024 年和 2023 年公司 EBITDA 總值均為 16 億美元。2024 年和 2023 年所有特殊項目的詳細資訊均包含在收益新聞稿附帶的附表中。除特殊項目外，2024 年第四季每股收益較2023 年第四季增加0.34 美元，原因是包裝部門價格上漲，產品組合上漲0.52 美元，銷售量上漲0.40 美元，造紙部門價格上漲，產品組合上漲0.02美元，銷量上漲0.02 美元。較低的運費和物流費用使我們受益0.06美元。

These items were partially offset by higher operating costs of $0.48 as inflation remains a significant issue across most of our cost structure. In addition, scheduled maintenance outage expenses were higher by $0.08, depreciation expense was also up $0.06 and other expenses were higher by $0.06. Results for the quarter were equal to our fourth quarter guidance. Looking at our Packaging business, EBITDA, excluding special items, in the fourth quarter of 2024 of $426 million, with fourth quarter record sales of almost $2.0 billion resulted in a margin of 22% versus last year's EBITDA of $385 million and sales of $1.8 billion and also a 22% margin.

由於通貨膨脹仍然是我們大部分成本結構中的一個重大問題，因此這些項目被 0.48 美元的較高營運成本部分抵消。此外，計劃維護停機費用增加了 0.08 美元，折舊費用也增加了 0.06 美元，其他費用增加了 0.06 美元。本季的業績與我們第四季的預期相同。縱觀我們的包裝業務，2024 年第四季的EBITDA（不含特殊項目）為4.26 億美元，第四季創紀錄的銷售額接近20 億美元，利潤率為22%，而去年的EBITDA 為3.85億美元，銷售額為18 億美元以及22%的利潤率。

For the full year 2024, Packaging segment EBITDA, excluding special items, was $1.6 billion with sales of $7.7 billion or a 21% margin compared to the full year 2023 EBITDA of $1.6 billion with sales of $7.1 billion or a 22% margin. The operational benefits of our capital spending program and the continued great focus and execution by our sales, customer service, mill and corrugated products plant employees continues to deliver impressive results while helping to minimize the inflationary impact across most of our cost structure. As we've seen throughout the year, demand in our Packaging segment remained very strong during the quarter. Our corrugated products plants delivered record fourth quarter total shipments and an all-time record shipments per day. The plants also set new annual records for total shipments and shipments per day.

2024 年全年，包裝部門的EBITDA（不含特殊項目）為16 億美元，銷售額為77 億美元，利潤率為21%，而2023 年全年的EBITDA 為16 億美元，銷售額為71 億美元，利潤率為22%。我們的資本支出計畫的營運效益以及我們的銷售、客戶服務、工廠和瓦楞產品工廠員工的持續高度關注和執行繼續帶來令人矚目的成果，同時有助於最大限度地減少我們大部分成本結構中的通膨影響。正如我們全年所看到的，本季我們包裝部門的需求依然強勁。我們的瓦楞紙產品工廠第四季的總出貨量創下了歷史新高，每日出貨量也創下了歷史新高。這些工廠也創下了年度總出貨量和日出貨量的新紀錄。

Excellent operations throughout our mill containerboard systems set new quarterly and annual production records as well. This allowed us to meet our customer’s service and quality demand needs in a timely manner as well as build some very much needed inventory ahead of this year's annual mill outage schedule that will take place in the first half of 2025.

我們整個工廠箱板紙系統的出色運作也創下了新的季度和年度生產記錄。這使我們能夠及時滿足客戶的服務和品質需求，並在 2025 年上半年的年度工廠停工計劃之前建立一些急需的庫存。

I'll now turn it over to Tom, who will provide further details on the containerboard sales and corrugated business.

現在我將把話題交給湯姆，他將提供有關箱板紙銷售和瓦楞紙業務的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Mark. As Mark mentioned, continuing strong demand during the fourth quarter resulted in record-breaking performance for our plants and mills. Total shipments and shipments per day were up 9.1% over last year's fourth quarter. Versus the previous record-breaking third quarter of 2024, shipments per day were up 3.2%. Outside sales volume of containerboard was 9,000 tons above last year's fourth quarter and down 18,000 tons versus the third quarter of 2024 as we emphasized hitting our year-end inventory targets.

謝謝你，馬克。正如馬克所提到的，第四季持續強勁的需求推動我們的工廠和軋機的業績創下了歷史新高。總出貨量和每日出貨量比去年第四季成長了 9.1%。與先前創紀錄的 2024 年第三季相比，每日出貨量增加了 3.2%。由於我們強調實現年終庫存目標，箱板紙的外部銷售量比去年第四季高出 9,000 噸，比 2024 年第三季下降 18,000 噸。

For the full year, annual corrugated shipment records were set as well, both in total and per day, up 10.5% and 10.1%, respectively, with one more shipping day compared to 2023. Domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices and mix together were up $0.46 per share versus the fourth quarter of 2023. Fourth quarter prices and mix, which were impacted by a less rich customer and product mix compared to the third quarter, were up $0.05 per share versus the previous quarter. Export containerboard prices were up $0.06 per share compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 and flat versus the third quarter of 2024. As we've indicated, we have continued to see very strong demand and are continuing to experience inflation across most of our cost base.

就全年而言，瓦楞紙總出貨量和單日期貨量均創下年度新高，分別成長 10.5% 和 10.1%，與 2023 年相比增加了一天出貨日。與 2023 年第四季相比，國內箱板紙和瓦楞產品價格及混合價格每股上漲 0.46 美元。第四季的價格和組合受到客戶和產品組合較第三季缺乏的影響，比上一季上漲了每股 0.05 美元。與 2023 年第四季相比，出口箱板紙價格每股上漲 0.06 美元，與 2024 年第三季持平。正如我們所指出的，我們繼續看到非常強勁的需求，並且我們的大部分成本基礎繼續經歷通貨膨脹。

Beginning January 1, 2025, we began invoicing a $70 per ton increase for linerboard and a $90 per ton increase for medium according to our recent price announcement. These prices have been accepted by our customers and, for our market containerboard purchases, we are paying higher prices to containerboard suppliers that began invoicing us according to their recent announcement.

根據我們最近的價格公告，從 2025 年 1 月 1 日起，我們開始對牛卡紙每噸漲價 70 美元，對中號紙板每噸漲價 90 美元。這些價格已被我們的客戶接受，並且對於我們的市場箱板紙採購，我們正在向根據其最新公告開始向我們開具發票的箱板紙供應商支付更高的價格。

We were very surprised when, as you are probably aware, a couple of weeks ago the RISI Pulp and Paper Week publication did not recognize any increase in the industry's benchmark prices for either linerboard or medium. Industry sources and the Pulp and Paper Week publication itself have previously reported that at least 12 or around 90% of the top containerboard producers have issued January price increase announcements. The publication even noted that certain box makers have postponed purchases of linerboard this month to avoid the price increase.

您可能已經知道，幾週前，RISI 紙漿和造紙周刊並未承認箱板紙或原紙的行業基準價格有任何上漲，這讓我們感到非常驚訝。業內消息人士和《紙漿與造紙周刊》本身此前報道稱，至少有 12 家或約 90% 的頂級箱板紙生產商已經發布了 1 月份價格上漲公告。該報甚至指出，某些紙箱製造商已推遲了本月的紙板採購，以避免價格上漲。

Yet the publication left the reported prices unchanged. As the industry's open market has shrunk over the years, we believe that the RISI publication is gathering information from a very small sample of the containerboard market and using that to opine on market conditions for the entire industry.

但該出版物報告的價格並沒有變化。由於該行業的公開市場多年來不斷萎縮，我們認為 RISI 出版物只是從非常小的箱板紙市場樣本中收集信息，並利用這些信息來評價整個行業的市場狀況。

Additionally, the publication often references comments regarding box prices when the relevant product is containerboard. As you know, boxes are highly customized to customer needs and have different pricing attributes. This continues to be a source of frustration, not only for us, but for our customers who want predictability in their prices.

此外，當相關產品是箱板紙時，該出版物經常引用有關箱子價格的評論。如您所知，盒子是根據客戶需求高度客製化的，並具有不同的定價屬性。這仍然讓我們感到沮喪，不僅對我們，對那些希望價格可預測的客戶也是如此。

As mentioned previously, we have been moving off of indexing our prices to the RISI publication as quickly as contracts allow. However, this will take some time to complete. I'm sure you will have some questions for us on this topic, and we'll be happy to discuss them with you shortly.

正如前面提到的，只要合約允許，我們就會盡快將我們的價格納入 RISI 出版物的指數化。但這需要一些時間才能完成。我確信您會就此主題向我們提出一些疑問，我們很樂意盡快與您討論。

I'll turn it back to Mark.

我會把它轉回給馬克。

Thanks, Tom. Looking at the Paper segment, EBITDA excluding special items, in the fourth quarter was $39 million with sales of $152 million or a 26% margin compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 EBITDA of $35 million and sales of $144 million or a 24% margin. For the full year 2024, paper segment EBITDA, excluding special items, was $154 million with sales of $625 million or a 25% margin compared to the full year 2023 EBITDA of $151 million with sales of $595 million or a 25% margin.

謝謝，湯姆。綜觀造紙部門，第四季不包括特殊項目的EBITDA 為3,900 萬美元，銷售額為1.52 億美元，利潤率為26%，而2023 年第四季的EBITDA 為3,500 萬美元，銷售額為1.44 億美元，利潤率為24%。2024 年全年，造紙部門的EBITDA（不含特殊項目）為1.54 億美元，銷售額為6.25 億美元，利潤率為25%，而2023 年全年的EBITDA 為1.51 億美元，銷售額為5.95 億美元，利潤率為25%。

Prices and mix were up 2% from last year's fourth quarter and up 1% from the third quarter of 2024, while volume was 5% above last year and down 5% versus the seasonally stronger third quarter of 2024. Additionally, during the quarter, we notified customers of a $60 per ton price increase effective with shipments beginning January 13 for all office papers, printing papers and converting papers. The management team and all employees of the paper business have done a tremendous job optimizing our inventory and product mix and remain highly focused on efficient and cost-effective operations in order to deliver outstanding results throughout the year last year. I'll now turn it over to Bob.

價格和產品組合較去年第四季上漲 2%，較 2024 年第三季上漲 1%，而銷量較去年同期上漲 5%，較季節性較強的 2024 年第三季下降 5%。此外，在本季度，我們通知客戶，自 1 月 13 日開始發貨的所有辦公用紙、列印用紙和加工用紙的價格每噸上漲 60 美元。造紙業務的管理團隊和全體員工在優化庫存和產品組合方面做了大量工作，並高度注重高效、具有成本效益的運營，以便去年全年取得優異的業績。現在我將把它交給鮑伯。

Thanks, Mark. Cash provided by operations during the quarter totaled $325 million and free cash flow was $124 million. The primary payments of cash during the quarter included capital expenditures of $201 million, dividend payments of $112 million, cash tax payment $82 million and net interest payments of $37 million. For the full year 2024, cash from operations was $1.2 billion with capital spending of $670 million and free cash flow of $521 million. Our year-end cash balance, including marketable securities, was $852 million with liquidity of $1.2 billion.

謝謝，馬克。本季經營活動提供的現金總計 3.25 億美元，自由現金流為 1.24 億美元。本季的主要現金支付包括 2.01 億美元的資本支出、1.12 億美元的股息支付、8,200 萬美元的現金稅款和 3,700 萬美元的淨利息支付。2024 年全年，營運現金流為 12 億美元，資本支出為 6.7 億美元，自由現金流為 5.21 億美元。我們的年末現金餘額（包括有價證券）為 8.52 億美元，流動資金為 12 億美元。

Our final recurring effective tax rate for 2024 was 24.4%. Regarding full year estimates of certain key items for the upcoming year, we estimate dividend payments of $450 million, total capital expenditures to be in the range of $840 million to $870 million and DD&A is expected to be approximately $565 million. Our full year interest expense in 2025 is expected to be around $56 million and net cash interest payments should be around $65 million.

我們 2024 年的最終經常性有效稅率為 24.4%。關於未來一年某些關鍵項目的全年估計，我們估計股息支付為 4.5 億美元，總資本支出在 8.4 億美元至 8.7 億美元之間，DD&A 預計約為 5.65 億美元。我們預計 2025 年全年利息支出約為 5,600 萬美元，淨現金利息支付約為 6,500 萬美元。

The estimate for our 2025 book effective tax rate is 25%. Compared to 2024, the planned annual outages in 2025 include all of our larger mills with a higher number of outage days. Including lost volume, direct costs and amortized repair costs, we currently expect the outages to total $1.18 per share.

我們預計 2025 年帳面有效稅率為 25%。與 2024 年相比，2025 年計畫的年度停產包括我們所有大型工廠，且停產天數更多。包括產量損失、直接成本和攤提維修成本，我們目前預計停產損失總額為每股 1.18 美元。

The current estimated impact by quarter in 2025 is $0.23 per share in the first quarter, $0.32 in the second, $0.18 in the third quarter and $0.45 per share in the fourth quarter.

目前預計 2025 年各季度的影響為第一季每股 0.23 美元、第二季每股 0.32 美元、第三季每股 0.18 美元和第四季每股 0.45 美元。

I'll now turn it back over to Mark.

現在我將話題轉回給馬克。

Thanks, Bob. The hard work of our employees, along with strong relationships between us and our customers and suppliers, delivered outstanding results for PCA for 2024. In our Packaging segment, new annual company records for shipment and production were achieved in our corrugated products plants and mills. We successfully completed the No. 3 machine conversion to containerboard at the Jackson mill and many other key initiatives throughout the system.

謝謝，鮑伯。我們員工的辛勤工作，以及我們與客戶和供應商之間的牢固關係，為 PCA 在 2024 年帶來了出色的成績。在我們的包裝部門，我們的瓦楞製品工廠和軋機的出貨量和產量創下了新的年度公司記錄。我們成功完成了傑克遜工廠 3 號機器向箱板紙的轉換，以及整個系統的許多其他關鍵舉措。

We also completed numerous high return and efficiency improvement projects in our corrugated products plants that will allow us to better optimize our entire packaging business for the future and deliver profitable growth and mix enhancement opportunities for our customers and shareholders.

我們也在瓦楞產品工廠完成了大量高回報和效率改進項目，這將使我們能夠更好地優化未來的整個包裝業務，並為我們的客戶和股東帶來盈利性成長和組合增強機會。

And we still have many key strategic capital spending opportunities in progress or ahead of us in 2025. 2024 also saw our paper business match the record margins from 2023, reflecting the capabilities of our employees to optimize our product mix, inventory, distribution channels and overhead structure, along with running very cost-effective and very efficient manufacturing operations.

2025 年，我們仍有許多關鍵的策略資本支出機會正在進行中或擺在我們面前。 、分銷通路和管理費用的能力結構，同時運作非常具有成本效益和高效的製造業務。

We ended the year with $1.2 billion of liquidity and a strong balance sheet, which maintains the financial flexibility to react quickly to most situations or opportunities in the future. We remain committed to a balanced approach towards capital allocation in order to profitably grow our company and maximize returns to our shareholders while still adhering to our conservative balance sheet views as we've done in the past. I'm very proud of our employees, these accomplishments and the very strong partnerships we've built with our customers and suppliers over many years.

截至今年年底，我們的流動資金為 12 億美元，資產負債表強勁，這保持了財務靈活性，可以對未來的大多數情況或機會做出快速反應。我們仍然致力於採取平衡的資本配置方式，以實現公司獲利成長和股東回報最大化，同時仍堅持我們過去保守的資產負債表觀點。我為我們的員工、這些成就以及我們多年來與客戶和供應商建立的非常牢固的合作關係感到非常自豪。

Looking ahead, as we move from the fourth and into the first quarter in our Packaging segment, although seasonally slower, we expect volume in our corrugated products plants to set new first quarter records for total shipments and shipments per day.

展望未來，隨著我們的包裝部門從第四季度進入第一季度，儘管受季節性因素影響，我們的瓦楞紙產品工廠的出貨量將創下第一季度總出貨量和每日出貨量的新紀錄。

Containerboard volume will be lower with two less operating days and scheduled maintenance outages at the Counce, Tennessee and Valdosta, Georgia mills. Domestic prices will be higher with an improved product mix together with our previously announced price increases. Export prices are assumed to be stable. In our Paper segment, we forecast slightly lower volume with two less mill operating days and prices and mix to be fairly flat.

由於田納西州康斯和喬治亞州瓦爾多斯塔工廠的營運日減少兩天以及計劃停產維護，箱板紙產量將下降。隨著產品結構的改善以及我們先前宣布的價格上漲，國內價格將會上漲。假設出口價格保持穩定。在造紙部門，我們預測產量將略有下降，因為工廠營運天數減少了兩天，價格和成分將相當持平。

With the exception of recycled fiber prices, we expect price inflation across most of our direct, indirect and fixed operating and converting costs along with a higher cost mix of mill operations. In addition, wood, energy and chemical costs will also increase due to the unusually cold seasonal weather negatively impacting usages and yields for these items.

除再生纖維價格外，我們預計大部分直接、間接和固定營運和轉換成本的價格都會上漲，同時工廠營運的成本組合也會上升。此外，由於異常寒冷的季節性天氣對這些物品的使用和產量產生負面影響，木材、能源和化學品的成本也將增加。

Labor and benefits costs will be higher due to the timing-related items that occur at the beginning of a new year for annual increases, the restart of payroll taxes and share-based compensation expenses. First quarter rail rate increases at three of our mills will impact freight and logistics expenses, and we expect higher depreciation expense. Lastly, scheduled outage expenses should be slightly lower and we assume a lower corporate tax rate.

由於新年伊始發生與時間相關的年度成長、工資稅重新開始以及股權激勵費用，勞動力和福利成本將會更高。我們三家工廠第一季的鐵路運費上漲將影響貨運和物流費用，我們預計折舊費用也會增加。最後，計畫停電費用應該會略低，我們假設企業稅率也會較低。

Considering these items, we expect first quarter earnings of $2.21. With that, we'd be happy to entertain any questions, but I must remind you that statement not constituted forward-looking statements. The statements were based on current estimates, expectations and projections of the company and involve inherent risks and uncertainties and direction of the economy and those identified as risk factors in the annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. And with that, Jamie, I'd like to go ahead and open up the call for questions, please.

考慮到這些因素，我們預計第一季收益為 2.21 美元。我們很樂意回答任何問題，但我必須提醒您，該聲明不構成前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於公司目前的估計、預期和預測，涉及固有風險、不確定性和經濟走向，以及在 10-K 表年度報告和隨後的 10-Q 表季度報告中確定的風險因素。交易委員會(SEC) 合作。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中所表達的結果有重大差異。好了，傑米，我現在可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

George Staphos, Bank of America Securities.

喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)，美國銀行證券。

Hi, thank you so much. Thanks for the details. Mark, I guess the first thing I wanted to ask of you, Tom and Bob, can you talk a little bit about bookings and billings to start the quarter what you're seeing? And given how busy PCA has been over the last couple of quarters, is that influx of volume creating any sort of inefficiencies beyond normal that you would call out and that we should be at least considering in terms of our modeling for you on a going-forward basis? And I had a couple of follow-ons.

你好，非常感謝。謝謝你的詳細資料。馬克，我想我首先想問你們的，湯姆和鮑勃，你們能否談談本季初的預訂和賬單情況？考慮到 PCA 在過去幾個季度一直很忙，這種業務量的湧入是否造成了超出正常水平的效率低下？遠期基礎？我還有一些後續行動。

George, this is Tom. Bookings and billings are up 8% so far in January. So we're off to a very good start, and we indicated that in our opening statements as well. So that's very good. The volume increase, I think if you take it, coupled with the capital initiatives that we have, yeah, that has caused some cost inefficiencies quite frankly, because we've got a lot of those projects going on in a lot of plants and you're shipping a lot of business around.

喬治，這是湯姆。一月份迄今為止，訂單和帳單增加了 8%。因此，我們的開局非常好，我們在開場白中也表明了這一點。這非常好。我認為產量增加，再加上我們的資本計劃，坦白說，這已經造成了一些成本效率低下的問題，因為我們在許多工廠都進行了很多這樣的項目，我們正在進行大量業務。

But again, our people have done a tremendous job handling that and taking care of our customers.

但我們的工作人員在處理這個問題以及照顧客戶方面做了大量的工作。

George, interesting -- George, for last year for 2024, we on the converting side, we accomplished 12 major new equipment installations on the converting side. These are major reconfigurations of converting lines. And then within corrugators, we either had major rebuilds or new corrugator installations at 12 locations. And we finished building up the new Salt Lake City plant and then got ready to build up the new Glendale operation. But we continue at this pace.

喬治，有趣的是——喬治，去年到 2024 年，我們在轉換方面完成了 12 台主要新設備的安裝。這是轉換線的重大重新配置。在瓦楞機方面，我們在 12 個地點進行了大規模重建或安裝了新的瓦楞機。我們完成了鹽湖城新工廠的建設，並準備建造格倫代爾新工廠。但我們仍以這個速度繼續前進。

I mean, prior year. And then last year, we're on that pace of around 60 major projects within the corrugated business, and we'll continue that this year. So along with all the benefit, there is some short-term disruption that occurs, but the capability that it gives us is just incredible. We would not be doing what we're doing today if we hadn't been keeping up this pace of spending over the last half dozen years. So it's the gift that keeps on giving.

我指的是前一年。去年，我們在瓦楞業務領域完成了約 60 個重大項目，今年我們將繼續這一步伐。因此，除了帶來所有好處之外，也會出現一些短期中斷，但它帶給我們的能力是令人難以置信的。如果過去六年來我們沒有維持這樣的支出速度，我們就無法達到像今天這樣的成果。所以這是一份持續給予的禮物。

So we shouldn't call it out because it's what enabling the growth is what you -- is kind of your answer there, right?

所以我們不應該把它說出來，因為推動成長的正是你——這就是你的答案，對吧？

Exactly, yes. It's truly the growth engine, yeah.

確實如此。是的，它確實是成長引擎。

Now can you help us a little bit in terms of the sequential move from 4Q to 1Q in terms of some of the cost factors. And in particular, I'm thinking about whether usage input costs, what that might be causing you and for that matter, on the incentive comp. And then since you had teed it up on pricing, you're out with your price increases effective in January, others are as well. I know it gets a little bit sensitive because you can't talk about what others may or may not be doing or forward-looking, but how do you square the circle then if you're raising an effective in January? And the arbiters are saying it hasn't happened yet.

現在，您能否就成本因素從第四季度到第一季的連續變化提供一些幫助？具體來說，我正在考慮使用投入成本，這可能會對您造成什麼影響，以及對激勵補償的影響。然後，由於您已經確定了價格，那麼您將從 1 月開始提高價格，其他人的價格也是如此。我知道這有點敏感，因為你不能談論其他人可能會或可能不會做什麼或具有前瞻性，但如果你在一月份提出有效建議，那麼你該如何解決這個問題？而仲裁員表示這還沒有發生。

Are you giving your customers at all any price protection or time delay between when it's effective when you announce and when you make it effective. So two questions there.

在您宣布價格保護和實際生效之間，您是否為您的客戶提供任何價格保護或時間延遲？這裡有兩個問題。

Let's start with Bob.

讓我們從鮑伯開始。

Hi, George, yes, just on some of the cost movements from 4Q to 1Q, if you look at the buckets of what's higher, there's a higher mill -- higher cost of -- relative to the mill mix. There's just -- that's a component. Then there's the weather seasonal items that we typically have, but this is sort of exacerbated by the severe cold that the country went through during the month of January. And then there are those timing items that we typically talk about relative to wage increases and tax fringe benefits so forth.

你好，喬治，是的，就第四季到第一季的一些成本變動而言，如果你看一下成本較高的部分，你會發現相對於工廠組合而言，工廠的成本更高。那隻是一個組件。然後還有我們通常會遇到的天氣季節性因素，但是該國在一月份經歷的嚴寒天氣在某種程度上加劇了這種情況。然後還有我們通常談論的與薪資成長和稅收福利等相關的時間事項。

So if you say that our cost round numbers, somewhere between $0.50 and $0.60 higher on all operating and converting costs, 65% of those, these items that typically will flip back the other way, not totally, but 70% of that amount is -- will flip back in the second and third quarters.

因此，如果您說我們的成本大概是所有營運和轉換成本高出0.50 美元到0.60 美元之間，其中65% 的項目通常會以另一種方式翻轉，雖然不是完全翻轉，但其中70% 的金額是 - - 將在第二季和第三季出現逆轉。

So that's sort of how we bridge the fourth to the first and then what we expect -- how much of that we expect to turn around in subsequent quarters.

這就是我們如何將第四個季度與第一個季度銜接起來，然後我們預期——我們預計在接下來的幾個季度會出現多少轉變。

Okay. George, this is Tom. Let me see if I can fill you in a little bit on the pricing side. So for starters, let's make the distinction here. we're talking about linerboard and medium.

好的。喬治，這是湯姆。讓我看看是否可以向您介紹一些價格方面的資訊。因此首先，我們先在這裡做出區分。我們談論的是牛皮紙板和中間紙板。

So we're talking about containerboard, all right? And in the Containerboard segment, we raised the prices we're billing at those prices. Our customers are paying. They will be paying those invoices at those higher prices, and we will be doing likewise on the outside purchases that we have as well.

我們現在討論的是箱板紙，好嗎？在箱板紙領域，我們提高了價格，並以這些價格收費。我們的客戶正在付款。他們將按照更高的價格支付這些發票，我們也將對外部採購採取相同的措施。

So some of that is -- comes from overseas because it's a specialty grade that may or may not be made here in the United States or certainly, the products that are made here in the United States that we are a net buyer of and we're paying those invoices as we go.

因此，其中一些是來自海外，因為它是一種特種品，可能在美國生產，也可能不在美國生產，或者肯定在美國生產的產品，我們是淨買家，我們'我們將隨時支付這些發票。

So that is in place, and that is set, all right? The frustration, as I mentioned, in the verbiage that I gave you in the opening statements, is related to discussions around boxes and things like that. Now we've always said our box price increases are between us and our customers. Those aren't publicly announced but we do have some, and it's a relatively sizable amount that are still tied to what happens in RISI and what's reported in RISI. And as I said, we're moving away from that as fast as we possibly can because I think in a lot of ways, and I've been at this a long time and if you go back in time, there was a pretty large open market and today, it's a very, very small open market. So I think there's become some confusion in terms of how the reporting goes and what the interpretations are. And so we're finding this -- in this vehicle a little less useful going forward. And therefore, we're moving away from it as fast as we can. Hopefully, that kind of wraps up your question a little bit.

那麼一切已經到位，一切都已經設定好，好嗎？正如我在開場陳述中提到的那樣，這種沮喪與圍繞盒子和類似事物的討論有關。我們一直表示，盒子價格上漲是我們與客戶之間的事。這些尚未公開宣布，但我們確實有一些，數量相對較大，仍然與 RISI 中發生的事情以及 RISI 中報告的內容有關。正如我所說，我們正在盡可能快地擺脫這種情況，因為我認為在很多方面，我已經在這個領域工作了很長時間，如果你回顧過去，你會發現有一個相當大的開放市場，而且今天，這是一個非常非常小的開放市場。所以我認為在報道方式和解釋方面存在一些混亂。所以我們發現，這款車未來的實用性會降低一些。因此，我們正在盡快擺脫它。希望這能稍微解答一下你的問題。

It's helpful. I'll turn over. Thank you guys.

這很有幫助。我翻過去。謝謝你們。

Thanks, George. Next question, please.

謝謝，喬治。請回答下一個問題。

Michael Roxland, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Michael Roxland。

Yeah. Thank you, Mark, Tom and Bob and congrats on a strong year. I just wanted to follow up. Can you give us a sense of the operating rate you're currently at? Would it be fair to say you're running full out given the strong demand you have. And if that's the case, can you help us understand the time frame over which you expect to add capacity at Counce and Valdosta.

是的。謝謝馬克、湯姆和鮑勃，恭喜你們度過了豐收的一年。我只是想跟進一下。您能告訴我們您目前的營運率嗎？考慮到你們的強勁需求，可以說你們已經全力以赴了嗎？如果是這樣，您能否幫助我們了解您預計在 Counce 和 Valdosta 增加產能的時間範圍？

You mentioned that I think you teased that in the last earnings call. When do you think those projects will be operational? What incremental capacity do they add?

您提到過，我認為您在上次財報電話會議上提到過這一點。您認為這些項目什麼時候可以投入營運？它們增加了多少增量容量？

We've got the opportunity to add capacity as time goes on. As we've always said, we have tremendous flexibility on how we provide containerboard tons into the system. Obviously, we completed the big Jackson reconfiguration. But nevertheless, we also have a lot of opportunity on how we optimize the seven mill system right now. regarding what you mentioned between Counce and Valdosta, those projects, if we go forward with those would be the next couple of years timing.

隨著時間的推移，我們有機會增加產能。正如我們一直所說，我們在如何向系統提供箱板紙噸位方面具有極大的靈活性。顯然，我們完成了傑克森的大重構。但儘管如此，我們現在仍然有很多機會來優化七工廠系統。關於您提到的 Counce 和 Valdosta 之間的那些項目，如果我們繼續前進的話，時間會是未來幾年。

And so again, that's something that we haven't decided to execute. We're studying all opportunities as we always do, and we have tremendous flexibility on how we bring new tons into the system when they're needed. And so that's the beauty of where we are. The high integration and the continuation of our demand growth presents the high opportunity, high return for these projects in our mills as we go forward. So we'll let you know when the decisions get made.

所以，我們還沒有決定要執行這個任務。我們正在像往常一樣研究所有的機會，並且在需要時我們在如何將新的噸位引入系統方面擁有極大的靈活性。這就是我們所在之處的美妙之處。高度整合和持續的需求成長為我們工廠未來的這些項目帶來了高機會和高回報。因此，當做出決定時，我們會通知您。

Got it. I appreciate that, Mark. So how much -- can you just comment about where the system is right now in terms of operating rate? How much ability or how much flex you have in the system right now to meet what seems to be really growing demand?

知道了。我很感激，馬克。那麼，您能否評論一下目前系統的運作率是多少？目前您的系統擁有多少能力或靈活性來滿足似乎真正不斷增長的需求？

Yeah. We are running -- I'm not going to say we're running full out, we're just -- we're running hard, which is a good place to be. We run best when the pressure is on. But again, we've got room to optimize the system and the grade mix, and also, as we've always done, we did this back over the years, the ability to buy some open market tons within a region where it's -- it makes sense. So we have those opportunities.

是的。我們正在奔跑——我不會說我們正在全力奔跑，我們只是——我們正在努力奔跑，這是一個很好的狀態。當壓力來臨時，我們的表現會最好。但是，我們仍然有空間來優化系統和等級組合，而且，正如我們多年來一直在做的那樣，我們有能力在某個地區購買一些公開市場噸位——這是有道理的。所以我們有這些機會。

So again, the ability to really utilize our capacity right now and whether you call it running full out, we always find ways to squeeze more tons out of the system, and we'll continue doing these projects. These are the high-class opportunities we engage with.

所以，再說一次，真正利用我們現在的產能的能力，不管你是否稱之為全力運轉，我們總是能找到方法從系統中提取更多的產能，我們將繼續開展這些項目。這些都是我們所接觸的高階機會。

Got it. And one last question just before turning it over. Can you give a sense of the volume cadence you're expecting through 2025. Should we expect some more pronounced volume growth in the first half and then maybe lessening as you get towards midyear and the back half, probably due to tougher comps.

知道了。在交接之前還有最後一個問題。您能否預期 2025 年的銷售節奏？我們是否應該預期上半年銷售會有更明顯的成長，而到年中和下半年銷售量可能會有所減緩，這可能是由於競爭更為激烈。

Well, I'll tell you, Mike, the comps are going to get much tougher as the year goes on, if you look at last year's. So -- but we see continued volume growth throughout the year. steady growth, but it will be -- but obviously, the numbers come down a little bit on percentages compared when you do a year-over-year comparison as we move throughout the year. But we have plenty of growth opportunities and lots of things that we're already putting in place and will continue to put in place as some of our capital projects come on board, and we're able to produce more.

好吧，麥克，我告訴你，如果你看看去年的比賽，你會發現，隨著時間的推移，比賽將會變得更加艱難。所以 — — 但我們看到全年銷售持續成長。穩定成長，但顯然，與去年同期相比，隨著全年的發展，這些數字的百分比會略有下降。但是，我們擁有充足的成長機會，許多事情我們已經實施並將繼續實施，因為隨著我們的一些資本項目的實施，我們能夠生產更多產品。

Thanks very much, Tom. Good luck in '25.

非常感謝，湯姆。祝你25年好運。

Thanks, Mike. Next question.

謝謝，麥克。下一個問題。

Gabrial Hajde, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC.

加布里埃爾·哈吉德（Gabrial Hajde），富國證券有限責任公司。

Let me start with the sequential numbers that you kind of give us on a quarterly basis in terms of the split corrugated price realization and export. And if I'm doing my math right, I'm seeing about $50 a ton of price realization in the fourth quarter -- excuse me, in 2024, which would imply sort of $30 million of unfavorable mix. And that, in my mind, seems a bit punitive and probably uncharacteristic of how PCA would operate. So I'm just curious if you guys have thought about it that way. And if you're still realizing any price in Q1 '25 from movements that transpired in 2024 on a sequential basis from Q4 to Q1.

讓我先從您按季度向我們提供的有關瓦楞紙價格實現和出口的連續數字開始。如果我沒算錯的話，我看到第四季——對不起，是在 2024 年——每噸的價格實現約為 50 美元，這意味著 3000 萬美元的不利組合。在我看來，這似乎有點懲罰性，而且可能不符合 PCA 的運作方式。所以我只是好奇你們有沒有這樣想過。如果您仍能從 2024 年第四季到第一季連續發生的變動中實現 2025 年第一季的任何價格。

It's Bob. There is some of that, that does -- some things that just move on an annual basis. So there is some movement relative to that as you said regarding these price increases of 2024. But the other thing you have to look at is, if you sort of do the math and make sure your account for the inventory change and what's export volume and what's domestic volume. I think it's somewhere around the mid $50-something a ton change.

是鮑伯。有些事情確實會——有些事情每年都會改變。因此，正如您所說的，2024 年的價格上漲會有一些相對的變化。但您還需要考慮的另一件事是，如果您進行計算並確保您的庫存變化以及出口和國內量都有所考慮。我認為價格大約在每噸 50 多美元左右。

And then you have to compare rather than comparing to $80, which were the two increases at the beginning of 2024, you have to remember, there was a $20 per ton drop late in the year in '23. So you sort of look at it that way, and I say that's a net $60 a ton. And like I said, I think we're in the mid-50s, something like that. and similar to your math. And then you do have mix changes.

然後你必須進行比較，而不是與 2024 年初的兩次增長 80 美元進行比較，你必須記住，23 年年底每噸價格下跌了 20 美元。所以如果你這樣看，我認為每噸淨利是 60 美元。就像我說的，我認為我們處於 50 年代中期，類似這樣的水平。和你的數學類似。然後你確實有混合變化。

You have customer mix, product mix and seasonal mix, things like that weigh into it. So we feel good about capturing the price based on those index changes that you referenced.

您有客戶組合、產品組合和季節組合等因素。因此，我們很高興能夠根據您所引用的指數變化來獲取價格。

Okay. And I guess for the avoidance of doubt in the first quarter, are you telling us that included in the guidance that you gave us, $2.21, includes price increases on open market tons and not on the converted box side? Or are you embedding in the -- what has been announced on both the corrugated and--

好的。為了避免第一季的疑問，您是否告訴我們，您給我們的指導價格中包括了 2.21 美元，其中包括公開市場噸位的價格上漲，而不是轉換箱方面的價格上漲？或者你正在嵌入——瓦楞紙和紙上已經宣布的內容——

No, there's definitely some open market. As we've always said, those things what happens immediately when there's price change up or down. But there are some things relative on the box side that regarding those price increases from last year that now will take effect in the first quarter. So that's embedded in there too, along with what we feel like we'll realize from this year's January price increases. Considering the impact of RISI, as Tom was talking earlier, RISI not picking it up in January.

不，肯定存在一些開放市場。正如我們一直所說，當價格上漲或下跌時，這些事情就會立即發生。但是與盒子方面相關的一些事情與去年的價格上漲有關，這些上漲將從第一季開始生效。所以這也包含其中，以及我們感覺今年 1 月價格上漲將會帶來的結果。考慮到 RISI 的影響，正如湯姆之前所說的，RISI 在一月沒有受到歡迎。

So to adjust for that a little bit, but there is some of that in our numbers as well.

因此要對此進行一些調整，但我們的數字中也存在一些這樣的情況。

Understood. Okay. And last one on CapEx. You did signal on the Q3 call that it would be up into '25, it's probably up a little bit more than what we were modeling. I don't know how others are thinking about it, but the Glendale I think box facility, should we sort of pencil in numbers that we see are $240 million to $260 million for a new box plant depending on if it's outfitted with a corrugator.

明白了。好的。最後一個是關於資本支出。您確實在第三季電話會議上暗示，到 25 年，這個數字將會上升，可能比我們預測的還要高一點。我不知道其他人是怎麼想的，但我認為格倫代爾的紙箱工廠，我們應該用鉛筆估算一下，一個新的紙箱工廠的成本是2.4 億到2.6 億美元，具體取決於它是否配備了瓦楞機。

But even if I adjust for that, when I look at maintenance I think that was also supposed to be down in '25 and it's actually up. So Mark, are you telling us there is no incremental capacity on the containerboard side in 2025, no debottlenecking or anything like that in that CapEx number?

但即使我對此進行了調整，當我查看維護時，我認為這在'25 年也應該下降，但實際上卻上升了。那麼馬克，你是說到 2025 年，箱板紙方面的產能不會增加，資本支出數字中不會出現瓶頸消除等類似情況嗎？

No, there certainly is. There's work going on in the mills. Again, there's no one big project. There's just a whole host of small projects that we always do every year to enhance what we have. One of the challenges that we've laid out to the team over the last year that over the last six or seven years of all these conversions that we've done at a very blistering pace.

不，當然有。工廠裡正在施工。再說一遍，沒有一個大項目。我們每年都會做大量的小型專案來增強我們現有的資源。我們去年向團隊提出的挑戰之一是，在過去六、七年裡，我們以非常快的速度完成了所有這些轉換。

Now is the time to step back in and really optimize what we have. And so we were doing these conversions and moving on to the next mill at such a pace we've never really taken the time to really drill down and make sure we're getting all the benefits from all the spending that was taking place.

現在是時候重新開始並真正優化我們所擁有的一切了。因此，我們一直在進行這些轉換，並以如此快的速度轉向下一個工廠，我們從未真正花時間深入研究並確保我們從正在進行的所有支出中獲得所有利益。

So now we've got the technology organization stepping back in and engaging with the mills and making sure that what we are doing is extracting all the value we can. So that gives us good return. But as far as the capital spending, this year, if you think about the Glendale project down in Arizona.

因此，現在我們讓技術組織重新介入並與工廠合作，並確保我們所做的事情能夠最大限度地挖掘價值。這給我們帶來了豐厚的回報。但就今年的資本支出而言，如果你想想亞利桑那州的格倫代爾計畫。

We're finishing out that box plant. And there is some number, the -- 10 years ago, you could build a box plant for $50 million. And now a big full-line box plant, if you're talking $200-plus million. We've also -- just this week, we broke ground in Newark, Ohio for another big new box plant. That's been in the works for the last few years.

我們正在完成那個箱子工廠。還有一個數字，10年前，你只需花費 5000 萬美元就可以建造一個紙箱工廠。現在又有一個大型的全系列紙箱廠，價值超過 2 億美元。就在本週，我們還在俄亥俄州紐瓦克破土動工，新建另一家大型紙箱工廠。這項工作過去幾年一直在籌備中。

We actually bought the land three years ago and -- so that box plant will be under construction and hopefully have everything ready to run by the end of next year. We also -- with this $800 -- high $800 capital call out that we're talking about right now. There's a major rebuild taking place at another plant in the Northeast. It's not a new box plant, but essentially it will be like new and we're done with it inside. And then there's another reconfiguration on the East Coast, that's a major enhancement, major rebuild of that plant.

實際上，我們三年前就購買了這塊土地，因此，該紙箱廠即將開工建設，希望到明年年底一切能夠準備就緒。我們也 — — 針對我們現在正在討論的這 800 美元 — — 高額 800 美元資本呼籲。東北地區另一家工廠正在進行大規模重建。這不是一個全新的箱式工廠，但本質上它就像新的一樣，而且我們已經完成了內部工作。然後東海岸還有另一次重新配置，這是對工廠的重大改進和重大重建。

So there's four big activities going on within the corrugated products side of the business, along with I'll call out right now, and I'm probably right. There's probably another 50 projects going on for the year that will be the smaller projects, the Evols the single converting line replacements that will just continue forever. And so that's all baked into that capital call out. But there's a good portion of new business growth in that capital along with optimization and just enhancing the business, not just maintenance. Maintenance is a small portion of that capital.

因此，瓦楞產品業務方面正在進行四項重大活動，我現在就說出來，我可能是對的。今年可能會有另外 50 個項目在進行，這些都是較小的項目，Evols 單條轉換線的更換將永遠持續下去。所以這一切都包含在資本呼籲中。但是，這些資本中很大一部分用於新業務成長、優化和業務增強，而不僅僅是維護。維護只是該資本的一小部分。

And Gabe, relative to your question on the maintenance expense, thinking it was down. If you're recalling something from the last quarter's call, there was a question about what's normal relative to what we had as outages in 2024. But it was not an indication of what our plan was for 2025 regarding outages. And the reality is there's a couple of things. One is we have more larger mills with more days down in this year's plan versus last year, larger mills are more expensive, more days down so on and so forth.

加布，關於你提出的維護費用問題，我認為它下降了。如果您還記得上個季度的電話會議內容，那麼有一個問題是關於相對於 2024 年的停電情況，什麼是正常的。但這並未表明我們針對 2025 年停電所製定的計畫。而現實情況是，存在以下幾件事。一是，與去年相比，我們今年的計畫中工廠規模更大，停工天數也更多，工廠規模越大，成本就越高，停工天數也就越多，等等。

The other thing is in the second half of '22, all of '23 and then for the first part of 2024, certainly in the first quarter of '24, we were still taking -- running to demand. So we had market downtime and the way we sort of bucket our variances if you're in market downtime and you have a maintenance outage you would not include the profit per ton of those in your -- you wouldn't penalize your outage for that because you're in market downtime, you couldn't sell the ton anyway.

另一件事是，在 2022 年下半年、整個 2023 年以及 2024 年上半年，當然還有 2024 年第一季度，我們仍然在滿足需求。因此，我們有市場停機時間，如果你處於市場停機時間並且你有一個維護停機，你不會將每噸的利潤包括在你的 - 你不會為此而懲罰你的停機因為正處於市場低迷時期，所以無論如何你都賣不出那麼多貨。

So those -- the negative impact of that shows up in your volume variances that we talk about whereas this year, we have none of that. So that profit per ton is in our outage calculations for every ton that's down. That's another reason it's going to be higher relative to 2024, if that -- if you follow me.

所以這些負面影響體現在我們談論的數量差異中，而今年我們並沒有出現這些情況。因此，每噸利潤是我們計算停產時每噸損失的利潤。這是它將比 2024 年更高的原因之一，如果你明白我的意思的話。

I do. Thank you guys for all the detail, and I appreciate the investment in Ohio.

我願意。感謝你們提供的所有詳細信息，我感謝對俄亥俄州的投資。

Good deal. Next question.

好交易。下一個問題。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Global Securities LLC.

溫特勞布 (Mark Weintraub)，Seaport Global Securities LLC。

So to the extent you can help us -- just trying to understand how much of the higher box prices that would come as a part of the containerboard price increase initiative that's been announced for January, would -- is incorporated in your Q1 guidance? Just really trying to understand how much additional upside there could be through the balance of the year if the price increase gets fully implemented.

因此，在您能幫助我們的範圍內——只是想了解，作為 1 月份宣布的箱板紙價格上漲舉措的一部分，紙箱價格上漲的多少會納入您的第一季度指引中？只是想了解如果價格上漲全面實施，今年餘下時間還能帶來多少額外上漲空間。

Yeah, Mark, this is Tom. What happens is it's a timing issue, especially relative to the contracts that we have left that relate to RISI. So we got to take a relatively conservative approach in the first quarter to what -- to how those contracts would roll through, however we are implementing right now the non-contractual business, we're going ahead and putting in place. But again, those amounts and those sorts of things is between us and our customers when it comes to boxes.

是的，馬克，這是湯姆。這是一個時間問題，特別是相對於我們剩餘的與 RISI 相關的合約而言。因此，我們在第一季對這些合約的執行方式採取了相對保守的態度，但我們目前正在實施非合約業務，我們正在繼續實施。但是，當涉及到盒子時，這些金額和類似的事情是我們和我們的客戶之間的事。

So we take -- we don't publicly come out and announce some of those things that -- those agreements that we've got with our customers. But I think what you're really referring to is the index and what's left tied to the index. And like I said, that rolls through at a different rate. And until that index indicates the prices of liner or medium going up, it won't trigger some of those some of those contracts.

因此，我們不會公開宣布我們與客戶達成的一些協議。但我認為您真正指的是指數以及與指數相關的剩餘內容。就像我說過的，它的滾動速度是不同的。除非該指數表明班輪或中型運輸價格上漲，否則它不會觸發其中一些合約。

So is it fair to say -- and again, I'm really trying to get the potential upside beyond the Q1, but another way to maybe ask the same question is, so if for whatever reason, RISI didn't publish the containerboard price increase in February or March, how significant an impact would that have on what you provided in the guidance versus what you then would expect if that's a question you can ask.

那麼，公平地說——我再次強調，我確實想了解第一季之後的潛在上漲空間，但另一種可能提出相同問題的方式是，如果出於某種原因，RISI 沒有公佈箱板紙價格如果二月或三月的產量增加，那麼這對您在指導中提供的內容與您預期的內容相比會有多大影響？

Well, again, I mean, as I said, we're taking a pretty conservative approach here. So is there upside going forward? Yeah. I mean, there's no question about it once this is indicated in RISI.

嗯，我再說一遍，正如我所說，我們在這裡採取了相當保守的方法。那麼未來還有上升空間嗎？是的。我的意思是，一旦 RISI 指出了這一點，就毫無疑問了。

Okay. And then can you give us any more color in terms of like the process of moving customers off the indexes and or what type of variables are being put in place? Or is it just like in a negotiation each time? Or is it being tied to various costs or things like that? Just to help us begin to understand as we want to kind of be able to forecast in the future, what might happen to your pricing, et cetera?

好的。然後，您能否向我們提供更多詳細信息，例如將客戶從指數中移出的過程以及正在實施的變數類型？還是每次都像在談判？或者它與各種成本或諸如此類的事情有關？只是為了幫助我們開始理解，因為我們希望能夠預測未來，您的定價等會發生什麼變化？

Well, it's going to be -- it's probably going to be a little more of a mixed bag. The -- as I mentioned our customers have been very, very frustrated with this process, and so have we. So -- and I think at the end of the day, it's more of a discussion with our customers about what's going to happen going forward with pricing and an agreement that we come to. There's -- we've not found any other indicator out there that we feel comfortable with. So I think it's going to be -- it's going to take a little time to unwind but we feel very comfortable in our discussions with our customers about where we're going to end up going forward. And it's going to be a little different per customer, but I think that the discussions have gone very well.

嗯，它將會——它可能會是一個混合包。正如我所提到的，我們的客戶對這個過程感到非常非常沮喪，我們也是如此。所以 — — 我認為到最後，這更多的是與我們的客戶討論未來的定價以及我們達成的協議。我們還沒有找到任何其他令我們感到滿意的指標。所以我認為這會是——這需要一點時間來解決，但我們在與客戶討論我們最終將走向何處時感到非常舒適。每個客戶的情況都會有點不同，但我認為討論進展很順利。

Mark, our customers, they are undergoing the same inflation that we undergo and the same cost pressures. They appreciate what we're talking about every day. They also appreciate and they understand the capital spending that we do, and we expect a return for our capital spending. The capital spending provides incredible benefits for the customers in terms of quality and on-time delivery. So there's -- that discussion is truly a customer-driven discussion one on one.

馬克，我們的客戶也和我們一樣經歷通貨膨脹和成本壓力。他們欣賞我們每天談論的內容。他們也欣賞並理解我們的資本支出，我們期待我們的資本支出會獲得回報。資本支出在品質和準時交貨方面為客戶帶來了難以置信的利益。所以，這次討論確實是一次由客戶驅動的一對一討論。

Thank you for the color.

謝謝你的顏色。

Next question, please

請回答下一個問題

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)

Good morning. Just following up on Mark's question, is it possible to say just kind of order of magnitude, what percentage of customers you moved off of RISI? Is it 5% or 25%? And then given the turnover of customer contracts, like how long it might take for you to get maybe a large majority of customers off the index?

早安.接下來是馬克的問題，能否說出一個數量級，也就是從 RISI 轉移出去的客戶比例是多少？是 5% 還是 25%？然後考慮到客戶合約的周轉率，例如您可能需要多長時間才能讓絕大多數客戶脫離指數？

Well, Anthony, this endeavor didn't -- did the start five years ago, it started about a year ago. So this is -- as I said, this is going to take some time to unwind those contracts, some of those are long-term contracts. And obviously, we've stated many, many times, I mean, we've dealt with these customers for decades, and we've got long, long-term relationships. So we're very sensitive to those relationships, and we're making sure that we're doing what is in the best interest of ourselves and our customers as we move forward. So this is going to take a little time to unwind.

嗯，安東尼，這個努力不是五年前開始的，而是大約一年前開始的。所以正如我所說，解除這些合約需要一些時間，其中一些是長期合約。顯然，我們已經多次表示過，我們與這些客戶打交道已經有幾十年了，我們建立了長期的合作關係。因此，我們對這些關係非常敏感，並且我們確保在未來的發展中，我們所做的事情符合我們自己和客戶的最佳利益。所以這需要一點時間來解決。

I'm not going to give you percentages of how this is going to sequentially fall into place here, but it's going to take some time, but we're moving in that direction.

我不會給你這個步驟將如何按順序實現的百分比，但這需要一些時間，但我們正朝著這個方向努力。

And then just switching to the CapEx guide, you talked about four big box plant project, Ohio, Glendale and then two, maybe reconfigurations in the East Coast. Is it possible to say what -- of the $840 million to $870 million, how much of that is those four big box plant projects? And are there any that you would call out, whether it's Ohio or Glendale or others as being especially large component of the $840 million?

然後切換到資本支出指南，您談到了四個大型工廠項目，俄亥俄州、格倫代爾，然後是兩個，可能是東海岸的重新配置。能否說一下——在 8.4 億到 8.7 億美元中，有多少是用於那四個大型工廠項目？您是否認為，俄亥俄州、格倫代爾或其他地方是這 8.4 億美元中佔比特別大的地區？

Yeah. Hold on second. Let me get some numbers here. Probably $250 million is going to that this year.

是的。稍等一下。讓我得到一些數字。今年大概會有 2.5 億美元用於此。

Got it. Got it. Is the Ohio greenfield the largest roughly or?

知道了。知道了。俄亥俄州綠地大概是最大的嗎？

Yes

是的

Okay. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

好的。這非常有幫助。我把它翻過來。

I mean there's -- again, there's another -- one of the projects is -- it's about a $70 million project to reconfigure one of our plants and that's a discrete project that we'll see this year also that's in that number.

我的意思是，還有另一個，其中一個項目是，大約 7000 萬美元的項目，用於重新配置我們的一家工廠，這是我們今年將看到的一個獨立項目，也在這個數字中。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

And again, just to remind you, of the $445 million that was allocated to the corrugated side for 2024, $370 million of the $445 million was for growth opportunities. So again, most of the capital spending that's going on is to enhance our capability to go to market and work with the customer.

再次提醒您，在 2024 年分配給瓦楞紙業務的 4.45 億美元中，有 3.7 億美元用於成長機會。所以，大部分正在進行的資本支出都是為了增強我們進入市場和與客戶合作的能力。

And let me remind you, Anthony, also that as we've said many, many times, these are already growth opportunities that are in place. These -- we're not expanding or doing any of these sorts of things in hopes that we get more business. This is growing with the existing customer base we have.

安東尼，讓我提醒你，正如我們多次說過的，這些已經是存在的成長機會。這些——我們沒有擴張或做任何這樣的事情，希望獲得更多的業務。隨著我們現有的客戶群不斷擴大，這一數字還在不斷增長。

thank you

謝謝

All right. Next question.

好的。下一個問題。

Philip Ng, Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的 Philip Ng。

Hey guys. Exciting times with all these growth projects. Mark, I guess, perhaps help us think through how the contribution kicks in. I know the Phoenix, Arizona box plant at least was scheduled to come on, I think, late 1Q, 2Q. So that's probably going to be contributing this year, but the other projects you've called out, the reconfiguration in Ohio. Help us size what that could actually drop to the bottom line? Do we see any of this year? Or is this more of a 2025 event where you could accelerate growth.

嘿，大家好。所有這些成長項目都令人興奮不已。我想，馬克或許能幫助我們思考一下捐款是如何開始的。我知道亞利桑那州鳳凰城的箱體工廠至少計劃在第一季末或第二季投產。所以這可能會在今年有所貢獻，但是您提到的其他項目，例如俄亥俄州的重新配置。幫我們估算一下實際上可能降至最低的金額是多少？我們能看到今年的任何東西嗎？或者這更像是 2025 年的活動，您可以藉此加速成長。

Well, yeah. The Arizona project should start up the spring as scheduled. And that new project will take the place of three -- we've been running a business down in Phoenix for years. But to run that business, we've been operating out of three different locations within the kind of the neighborhood, so to speak. It's not the most effective way to run a business. And so this new plant will allow us to consolidate all the operations to one state-of-the-art, high-efficiency operation.

嗯，是的。亞利桑那州計畫應於春季按計劃啟動。而這個新計畫將取代我們在鳳凰城經營多年的三個計畫。但為了經營這項業務，我們一直在社區的三個不同地點開展業務。這不是經營企業最有效的方式。所以這個新工廠將使我們能夠將所有業務整合為一個最先進的、高效的業務。

In terms of unit labor and efficiencies, it will add tremendous efficiencies. Probably triple or quadruple the production capability of the of the region down there now coming out of this one plant. And again, the quality cost structure, we'll see immediately this year. I don't -- I'm not going to attempt to give you a number, but it's -- it will be immediately accretive to the system when we bring the plant on and we exit the old operation, and the employees are moving over from the existing operation right into the new operation.

從單位勞動力和效率來看，它將大幅提高效率。現在，這個工廠的生產能力可能會提高三到四倍。再次，我們將在今年立即看到品質成本結構。我不會——我不會試圖給你一個數字，但是——當我們把工廠開工，我們退出舊的運營，員工們也搬過來時，它會立即對系統產生影響。新操作。

And the ramp-up of some of these other projects you've called out, New Jersey, the reconfigurations.

還有您所提到的一些其他項目的加速推進，新澤西州的重新配置。

There's a New York and Pennsylvania project going on, and they'll -- again, those will be more disruptive type of projects that Tom spoke of and that I spoke of, those are the type of projects that you suffer a little bit of pain while you're doing them. But then once they're done, they provide incredible opportunities for the next 10 years for us.

紐約和賓夕法尼亞州正在進行一個項目，而且它們會——再說一次，這些項目將是湯姆和我所說的更具破壞性的項目，這些項目會讓你遭受一些痛苦當你在做這些事的時候。但一旦完成，它們將為我們未來 10 年提供難以置信的機會。

But any color on the timing of that ramp, Mark? Is that a '25?

但是馬克，您能具體了解這個坡道的具體時間嗎？那是 '25 嗎？

Well, just again, we'll finish those projects this year and then get them get them running and get the bugs worked out and then again, we'll see immediate benefits out of those also.

好吧，再說一次，我們將在今年完成這些項目，然後讓它們運作起來，解決問題，然後我們也將從中看到直接的利益。

Philip, I'll add just a couple of things to this. Don't forget that any one of these projects, we're building in, as Mark mentioned, a lot of efficiency in these projects, including closures of inefficient box plants and things like that, where we can consolidate some operations into one.

菲利普，我只想補充幾點。不要忘記，正如馬克提到的那樣，我們正在這些項目中的任何一個中建立很多效率，包括關閉效率低下的箱子工廠和類似的東西，我們可以將一些操作合併為一個。

But in addition, it gives us a lot more capacity to satisfy those customers that I talked about earlier who want to do business with us want us to supply them, have agreements for us to supply them including different markets that we haven't been in, especially when you consider Phoenix because we had a smaller three-building operation that couldn't -- didn't have a lot of reach. This will give us -- provide us a lot more opportunities.

但除此之外，它也讓我們有更多的能力去滿足我之前提到的那些想要與我們做生意的客戶，他們希望我們為他們供貨，與他們簽訂了供貨協議，包括我們還沒進入的不同市場，尤其是當你考慮到菲尼克斯的時候，因為我們的營運規模較小，只有三棟建築，所以影響力不大。這將為我們提供更多的機會。

And the one in Ohio is the same, I mean, which -- where we've got a very large footprint and this will be able to consolidate that footprint a little bit in terms of numbers of plants, but also, more importantly, create a lot more efficiency and a lot more reach for us in terms of our customer base.

俄亥俄州的工廠也一樣，我們的工廠規模非常大，這將能夠在工廠數量上稍微鞏固我們的規模，但更重要的是，創造就我們的客戶群而言，這為我們帶來了更高的效率和更大的覆蓋範圍。

Super. And then from a demand standpoint, you guys have box shipments in '24, and that momentum sounds like it's continued into January so far. Can you just help us think through some of this. I mean some of it is obviously the market is recovering, but you're clearly outpacing the market, you're taking share, called out some share gains on the brown side of things. certainly still a lot of disruption in the marketplace with consolidation in the making. Do you see that as a big driver that's a catalyst in terms of the momentum you've seen thus far this year?

極好的。然後從需求的角度來看，你們在24年有箱裝出貨量，而且這種勢頭聽起來一直持續到1月。你能幫我們仔細思考一下這個問題嗎？我的意思是，顯然市場正在復蘇，但你顯然跑贏了市場，搶佔了市場份額，並在形勢的樂觀方面取得了一些份額增長。當然，市場上仍有許多混亂，而且正在形成整合。您是否認為，就今年迄今為止所見的勢頭而言，這是一個巨大的推動力，是一個催化劑？

Like how should we think about share gain opportunities this year for you guys?

例如，我們該如何看待你們今年的股票成長機會？

Well, I think, as I mentioned many times, I said we've got our core customer base. if you position yourself as the best supplier and the most reliable supplier to that customer base, there -- it presents many internal opportunities for you to continue to grow your volume. And I think traditionally, a lot of corrugated customers have split their business and done other things because they just couldn't get comfortable with sole suppliership and things like that. But that's changing dramatically over time.

嗯，我想，正如我多次提到的，我說過我們已經擁有了核心客戶群。如果您將自己定位為該客戶群的最佳供應商和最可靠的供應商，那麼這將為您提供許多內部機會來繼續增加您的銷售量。我認為，傳統上，許多瓦楞紙客戶都會分拆他們的業務並做其他事情，因為他們無法適應單一供應和諸如此類的事情。但隨著時間的推移，情況正在發生巨大變化。

And we're proving in a lot of cases that we're just -- we're a great supplier, incredibly reliable, we got we consider the best quality and the best service of anybody in the business. And we're great partners for our customers. And we position our business around those customers and about their game plans. So that's -- I think that gives us a competitive advantage.

我們在許多案例中證明，我們只是——我們是一個優秀的供應商，非常可靠，我們認為我們提供業內最好的品質和最好的服務。我們是客戶優秀的合作夥伴。我們的業務定位圍繞著這些客戶以及他們的遊戲計劃。所以我認為這給了我們競爭優勢。

And fortunately, we've got the financial flexibility to be able to expand at a rapid rate to be able to do some things quicker than maybe some others can do it. and I see nothing but solid runway for those opportunities going forward.

幸運的是，我們擁有財務彈性，能夠快速擴張，並且能夠比其他公司更快完成某些事情。我認為這些機會的未來發展道路十分堅實。

Got it. Then Tom, one quick one. Mix was a modest drag last year on the brown side. Do you anticipate mix be much of a good guy or bad guy when you think about '25?

知道了。那麼湯姆，快說一個。去年，Mix 在棕色方面略顯拖累。當您想到 25 年時，您是否預計 Mix 會是好人還是壞人？

Well, in the fourth quarter, we had that mix impact there was a lot more e-commerce activity, quite frankly, in the fourth quarter. That's done now. And so I think the comment was made during the call earlier that we expect an improved richer mix 1Q versus 4Q. And so we'll probably see that better mix through the first half of this year. And then as the year rolls on, we'll see more e-commerce into the fourth quarter, again, I expect.

嗯，在第四季度，我們受到了這種混合影響，坦白說，第四季度的電子商務活動增加。現在已經完成了。因此，我認為早些時候在電話會議中已經提到，我們預計第一季的產品組合將比第四季有所改善。因此，我們可能會在今年上半年看到更好的組合。然後，隨著時間的推移，我預計我們將在第四季度再次看到更多的電子商務。

Yeah, I think our mix is pretty steady compared to what it's always been.

是的，我認為與以往相比，我們的組合相當穩定。

Appreciate the call.

感謝您的來電。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Charlie Muir-Sands, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的 Charlie Muir-Sands。

Yes. Morning, I thank you very much for taking my questions. Just returning to the capital expenditure. I wondered if you could give us an estimate as to how much you would considered to be genuine maintenance CapEx within the overall budget for this year?

是的。早上好，非常感謝您回答我的問題。回到資本支出。我想知道您是否可以給我們估算一下，您認為今年總預算中真正的維護資本支出是多少？

Yeah, Charlie, this is Bob. Typically, that's about -- it runs 60%, 65% of our total spend. I think that's probably just a good way to think about it. Year-to-year, it's different, but I'd say that's (multiple speakers)

是的，查理，這是鮑伯。通常，這大約占我們總支出的 60% 到 65%。我認為這可能只是一種思考這個問題的好方法。每年都不一樣，但我想說的是（多位發言者）

This year, we've got a few bigger discrete projects. With the yes, it's going to on a percentage basis, it will be less this year because we've got four big discrete projects going on in the packaging side of the business. But as I said earlier, the bulk of the spending is going towards growth opportunities and not just maintaining what we have. We've been fortunate that over the decades, we've done a good job of maintaining our assets and continuing to make sure we stay on top of the asset preservation. So we're not playing catch up.

今年，我們有幾個較大的獨立項目。是的，以百分比計算，今年的百分比會較少，因為我們在包裝業務方面有四個大型獨立項目正在進行中。但正如我之前所說，大部分支出將用於成長機會，而不僅僅是維持現有的狀況。我們很幸運，幾十年來我們在維護資產方面做得很好，並繼續確保我們處於資產保全的領先地位。所以我們不會追趕。

Yeah, very clear. And on the weather impact that you called out, I recall January 2024, there was some pretty severe cold weather as well. But I'm not sure if it was you, but I think some of the other box makers called that out as an impact in Q1 last year. But I just wondered, is the weather you're talking about here something that you see as adverse just on a quarter-on-quarter basis or also more challenging incurring more costs than last year?

是的，非常清楚。關於您提到的天氣影響，我記得 2024 年 1 月也出現了相當嚴重的寒冷天氣。但我不確定是不是您的原因，但我認為其他一些盒子製造商去年第一季就指出了這一點的影響。但我只是想知道，您在這裡談論的天氣是否僅對季度環比產生了不利影響，或者是否比去年更具挑戰性並產生了更多成本？

Yeah. Let me comment and then Bob can fill. Obviously, we've just gone through the month of January, we're wrapping up here, but we've had a couple of weeks of severe weather and not just severe normal weather, but we've had more colder snowy weather in the very deep south region. As you all know, last week, along the Gulf Coastal area, Interstate 10 was shut down from Houston all the way over to Florida for a couple of days. And so that's very disruptive.

是的。讓我發表評論，然後鮑勃可以填寫。顯然，我們剛剛度過了一月份，我們即將結束這一個月，但我們經歷了幾週的惡劣天氣，不僅僅是正常的惡劣天氣，而且我們在非常深的南部地區。大家知道，上週，墨西哥灣沿岸地區的10號州際公路從休士頓一直到佛羅裡達州關閉了幾天。這非常具有破壞性。

So it wasn't just the cold weather impacting energy usage and raw material consumption and yield, but it was actually impacting business in general commercial activity. So there will be a volume impact there with the cold weather. But again, we just had -- in general, had a colder winter right now. We're running well. Operationally, we're running very well, but it's more expenses to run well under these conditions. And again, last week, in particular, we saw some volume impact from that weather.

因此，寒冷天氣不僅影響能源使用、原材料消耗和產量，而且實際上影響了一般商業活動。因此，寒冷的天氣會對產量產生影響。但整體來說，我們現在經歷了一個比較冷的冬天。我們運作良好。從營運上來說，我們運行得很好，但是在這種情況下要運行得好，需要花費更多。尤其是上週，我們看到天氣因素對銷售量產生了一定影響。

Thanks very much

非常感謝

Next question, please

請回答下一個問題

Ryan Fox, Bloomberg.

瑞安·福克斯，彭博。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Good morning.

早安.

Gabe, I think, asked this question, but maybe he asked it a different way. I was hoping you could clarify it. So if we look at the revenue per produced ton in '23 versus '24, it looks like '24 is down about $50 per ton even while the index is up about $35 a ton creating a margin of about $85. How do you -- how can you help us understand that?

我認為，加布問了這個問題，但也許他問的方式不同。我希望你能澄清這一點。因此，如果我們比較 23 年與 24 年每噸生產收入，就會發現 24 年每噸下降了約 50 美元，而指數卻上漲了約 35 美元，利潤約為 85 美元。您如何—您如何幫助我們理解這一點？

Run that -- say that again, Ryan.

運行那個——再說一遍，瑞安。

So revenue -- if we look at revenue compared to the produced tonnage, over year over year, that number is down about $50 per ton, even while the index has gone up for containerboard.

因此，如果我們將收入與生產噸位進行比較，與去年同期相比，這個數字下降了約 50 美元/噸，儘管箱板紙的指數已經上漲。

Hey Ryan, which period are you talking about that it's gone down $50 a ton?

嘿，瑞安，你說的哪個時期油價下降了每噸 50 美元？

'23 to '24. So full year '23 to full year '24.

'23 至 '24。因此從 23 年全年到 24 年全年。

Yeah. Well, if you adjust -- I think what you're doing, you using produced tons, so you have to account for inventory change. But directionally, I'd say it's probably closer to $40, not $50, but go ahead.

是的。好吧，如果你調整——我想你正在做的是使用生產的噸數，所以你必須考慮庫存變化。但從方向上看，我認為它可能更接近 40 美元，而不是 50 美元，但請繼續。

Okay. I guess just in light of the fact that there were two price increases last year for about $80. And I realized that there was a $20 slide at the end on '23. But if you look -- just look at the averages for containerboard over those two years, even that's up.

好的。我猜只是考慮到去年兩次價格上漲了約 80 美元。我意識到在 23 號的末尾有一個 20 美元的幻燈片。但如果你看一下——只要看一下這兩年箱板紙的平均價格，你會發現這一價格還在上漲。

So there's about a -- I call it maybe $5 it could be a little bit less than that, but there's the differential where prices are going in the opposite direction of where the index is going? I'm just trying to figure out how do we square that?

因此大約是——我稱它為 5 美元，也可能比這略低一點，但如果價格走勢與指數走勢相反，則存在差異？我只是想知道該如何解決這個問題？

Yeah. It's -- there's also -- in the way you're looking at that is there's export a good chunk of export volume in that. And during that period, I think export was definitely going down. So that's sort of getting into your math a little bit. I think if you sort of accommodate for that as well as some inventory change thing and some mixed things, I think we're right there where we would expect to be based on how that index moves.

是的。從你的角度來看，這其中有很大一部分出口量。在那段時期，我認為出口肯定在下降。這有點兒像數學。我認為，如果你能適應這一點以及一些庫存變化和一些混合因素，那麼我們就正好處於根據該指數的走勢所預期的位置。

And let me just add another element to this too, because if -- we don't actually sell tons, we sell MSF. And if the basis weight is working its way down on MSF, that's going to trigger a different situation in tons. And so there's a lot of variables that go into this.

讓我再補充一點，因為如果──我們實際上賣的不是噸，我們賣的是 MSF。如果 MSF 的基礎重量不斷下降，那麼噸位就會出現不同的情況。這其中涉及很多變數。

And again, that's a whole another subject that we could get into. But here again, we've got -- we have an industry that is measuring something they don't even sell which is tons. And here, we sell MSF. So when you're factoring everything around a ton, there are a lot of variables that go into that and that have to be taken into consideration.

再說一次，這是我們可以討論的另一個話題。但是，我們再次遇到這種情況——我們有一個行業，他們在測量一些他們甚至根本賣不出去的東西，那就是噸。這裡我們銷售 MSF。因此，當你考慮大量因素時，會涉及到很多變量，必須將其考慮在內。

Yeah. Just lastly, Ryan, as you know, the prices started moving down at the end of '22 throughout a good part of '23 and all the way into late '23 and just the way those -- that affects our box -- that's -- you've got to overcome all that. Prices come up $80 since then, but it was down $110 with all those decreases.

是的。最後，Ryan，如你所知，價格從 22 年底開始下跌，持續到 23 年的大部分時間，一直到 23 年末，這些價格 — — 影響了我們的盒子 — — 那是 — — - 你必須克服這一切。自那時起，價格上漲了 80 美元，但由於上述所有下跌，價格也下跌了 110 美元。

So it's just the way the timing and the way the things -- when they start to appear, it's sort of impacting what you're doing, which is just taking a high-level revenues by tons.

所以這只是時機和事物出現的方式——當它們開始出現時，它會對你所做的事情產生影響，也就是大量地獲取高收入。

Yeah. My other question for you is you've talked a little bit about how your customers are frustrated. Are you referring to box customers or the containerboard customers.

是的。我要問您的另一個問題是，您剛才談到了您的客戶是如何感到沮喪的。您指的是箱子客戶還是箱板紙客戶？

Both.

兩個都。

Both. Okay. I guess last question. Help me understand, I mean, in the US, the mill operating rates are about 90%. I mean we're going to be on pace to export nearly 5 million tons in '24. Why would an open market -- somebody who maybe doesn't have a mill, why would they be wanting to pay higher prices for containerboard with such overcapacity.

兩個都。好的。我想這是最後一個問題了。幫我理解一下，我的意思是，在美國，工廠的開工率約為 90%。我的意思是我們將按計劃在24年出口近500萬噸。為什麼一個開放的市場——那些可能沒有工廠的人，為什麼他們願意為產能過剩的箱板紙支付更高的價格。

You'll have to ask them. I can tell you that our customers don't see it the same way you're calling it out. Again, I'm going to refer to something that you're measuring in terms of tons, but we don't sell any tons. We sell MSF. So there's a large disconnect in my opinion, to what's really going on in the marketplace and what exists out there in terms of numbers.

你得問他們。我可以告訴你，我們的客戶並不像你所說的那樣看待這個問題。再次，我將提到以噸為單位測量的東西，但我們不出售任何噸。我們銷售 MSF。所以，我認為，市場上真正發生的事情和實際的數字之間存在著很大的脫節。

I'll give you another example. There's a relatively large mill that produces -- that is producing everything they can produce and their output is about 50% of what is projected for that particular mill. So the projections and the realities are very different as well.

我再舉一個例子。有一個相對較大的工廠，正在生產其所能生產的所有產品，其產量約為該工廠預計產量的 50%。因此預測和現實也有很大差異。

And although we can buy some tons in the open market, the type of tons that we need to produce the boxes that our customers require is very limited and we've had long-term relationships to be able to do that. If those relationships did not exist, I would have some difficulty buying the property tons.

儘管我們可以在公開市場上購買一些噸位，但生產客戶所需的箱子所需的噸數非常有限，而且我們已經建立了長期的合作關係才能夠做到這一點。如果不存在這些關係，我購買這些房產會遇到一些困難。

Yeah. Obviously, with the lighter basis weights that definitely creates some disparity in the contribution per machine hour on your mills. Is that lighter weight? Is that a thing that you're going to continue to see in the future where it's going to be a drag there?

是的。顯然，較輕的基礎重量肯定會造成工廠每台機器小時的貢獻有些差異。是不是重量比較輕啊？您是否會在未來繼續看到這種情況並成為一種阻礙？

Well, I wouldn't call it a drag. I just think it's a fact of life.

好吧，我不會稱之為麻煩。我只是認為這就是生活中的事實。

I say, I mean, it becomes an opportunity. We're making more product with less fiber. And that's part of the capital investment over the last decade is to run these mills on a lighter weight grade mix much more efficiently. And so it hasn’t impacted the mill profitability and the ill capability.

我說，我的意思是，這成為了一個機會。我們用更少的纖維生產更多的產品。這是過去十年的資本投資的一部分，目的是使這些工廠能夠更有效率地使用更輕重量等級的混合料。因此它並沒有影響工廠的獲利能力和產能。

Great. Thank you so much.

偉大的。太感謝了。

Thank you. I think I know we're out of time, but I know there was one more question. I think George Staff may have had a question if you're still on, George.

謝謝。我想我知道我們已經沒時間了，但我知道還有一個問題。喬治，我想如果你還在的話，喬治·斯塔夫可能有一個問題。

George Staphos.

喬治·斯塔福斯。

Thanks guys. I'll try to make it painless, Mark. Just to wrap up all the price discussion, when we look at fourth quarter last year, fourth quarter this year, prices are up a ton. They're not down. They're up about $43, recognizing its tons produced.

謝謝大家。我會盡力讓事情變得輕鬆，馬克。總結一下價格討論，我們看看去年第四季、今年第四季度，價格上漲了很多。他們沒有倒下。他們認識到其產量噸數，因此價格上漲了約 43 美元。

And what you're saying is when we consider the price drop that entered last year, and the fact you're building back from that and you look at mix, you're pretty much where you expect to be. Is that a fair statement?

而您所說的是，當我們考慮到去年的價格下跌，以及您從中恢復過來的事實，並且您看一下組合，您基本上就處於預期的位置。這是公正的說法嗎？

Yeah, George, my math, I would say we're closer to $55 a ton, something in the mid $50s rather than $40, but go ahead.

是的，喬治，根據我的計算，我認為我們更接近每噸 55 美元，大約在 50 美元中段，而不是 40 美元，但請繼續。

Understood. Okay. And then the other question I had, aside from fiber, where are you seeing the most cost inflation? Because when we look at cost per ton, it's been trending steadily higher over time, despite the fact that you are spending a good amount of capital to become more productive, more efficient. So looking at your return on capital history over time, you don't spend bad dollars, so you're being coming more efficient.

明白了。好的。然後我的另一個問題是，除了光纖之外，您認為哪個領域的成本上漲最為顯著？因為當我們查看每噸成本時，儘管你投入了大量的資金來提高生產力和效率，但隨著時間的推移，成本一直呈穩步上升趨勢。因此，回顧您一段時間內的資本回報率歷史，您就不會花錯錢，因此您的效率會更高。

Where are you seeing the most pressure on your cost and what are you going to do about that on a going-forward basis? What kind of products do you have that will take -- bend the curve back the right way on cost per ton. Thanks guys for further call.

您認為哪些方面對成本的壓力最大？您擁有什麼樣的產品可以讓每噸成本曲線回到正確的方向。感謝各位的進一步來電。

For the first quarter, energy is obviously a glaring factor. But don't forget, over time, fiber has become less of a component. You've got all of your labor medical benefits, all of that element. Transportation is another example. All of your service costs, services in general, all the lease expenses, everything is up dramatically.

對於第一季來說，能源顯然是一個突出的因素。但別忘了，隨著時間的推移，纖維已不再是重要的組成部分。您已享有所有的勞動醫療福利，所有這些福利。交通運輸是另一個例子。您的所有服務成本、一般服務、所有租賃費用，一切都大幅上漲。

We called this out on the call earlier. We've got rail increases taking place significant rail increases, again, taking place in this first quarter. And so the fact that we are fortunate in the ability to effectively spend capital, it helps us maintain our position, but it certainly is not able to overcome all of your inflation.

我們之前在電話中提到過這一點。我們的鐵路運價出現了大幅上漲，這在第一季再次出現。因此，事實上，我們有幸能夠有效地使用資本，這有助於我們維持自己的地位，但絕對無法克服所有的通貨膨脹。

And so that's why you have to have price along with a very, very effective capital spending program to stay ahead of the curve here. But energy right now is probably the big.

這就是為什麼你必須擁有價格以及非常非常有效的資本支出計劃才能保持領先地位。但就目前而言，能源可能是最重要的。

Yeah. In energy, as far as your direct items, George, I mean, even chemicals, but chemicals are going to be up. And you look at just pretty much across the board, for the types of chemicals we use. We're seeing price increases in the first quarter, and those will stay with us throughout the year.

是的。喬治，就能源而言，就你的直接項目而言，甚至是化學品，但化學品的價格將會上漲。你可以全面地了解我們使用的化學品類型。我們在第一季就看到了價格上漲，而且這種趨勢將持續全年。

But as Mark alluded to, the majority of the inflation we're seeing is in those items below all your direct costs, the things that Mark was referring to. That's where the biggest hit will be.

但正如馬克所提到的，我們看到的大部分通貨膨脹都出現在所有直接成本之下的那些項目中，也就是馬克所指的東西。那裡將會受到最大的打擊。

It also means you need to be given the expense inflation on labor and medical services, rail, which you can't control necessarily. You've got to be very, very precise, very strategic about where you put that next box plant so that you optimize around those various factors but --

這也意味著你需要考慮勞動力、醫療服務、鐵路等方面的費用通膨，而這些是你無法控制的。你必須非常、非常精確、非常有策略地選擇下一個箱式工廠的放置地點，以便圍繞這些不同的因素進行最佳化，但--

And that's -- and George, that's what we've been doing. I mean think about the rate of spending over the last seven or eight years now, especially the last six years, the benefits that we've gained from this activity are immense. It's allowed us to do what we do and be where we are.

這就是——喬治，這就是我們一直在做的事情。我的意思是，想想過去七、八年的支出速度，特別是過去六年，我們從這項活動中獲得的利益是巨大的。它使我們能夠做我們所做的事情並身處我們所在的地方。

Now good news is we're going to continue at this pace, and we'll continue to take advantage of this. But nevertheless, with this comprehensive inflation across the board. It doesn't matter how much capital you spend. You will never -- unless you see appropriate pricing, you can't keep up with all of the inflation.

現在的好消息是我們將繼續保持這一速度，並繼續利用這一優勢。但儘管如此，整體而言還是存在著通貨膨脹。無論你花多少資本都沒關係。你永遠不會——除非你看到合適的定價，否則你就無法跟上所有的通貨膨脹。

Thank you. Mark, good luck in the quarter. Talk to you soon.

謝謝。馬克，祝本季好運。很快再和你聊。

Thank you. Appreciate it. Jamie, I think that may be wrapping things up. If you want to conclude this.

謝謝。非常感謝。傑米，我想事情可能就這樣結束了。如果你想結束這一點。

Absolutely, Mr. Kowlzan, I do see that there are no additional questions, if you have any closing comments, feel free to proceed at this time.

當然，Kowlzan 先生，我看到沒有其他問題了，如果您還有其他結束語，請隨時繼續。

Thank you, everybody for joining us and I look forward to talking with everybody at the end of April. Take care. Have a good day. Bye.

感謝大家的加入，我期待四月底與大家交談。小心。祝你有美好的一天。再見。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining, you may now disconnect your line.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議和演講就到此結束。非常感謝您的加入，您現在可以斷開線路了。