Packaging Corp of America (PKG) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for joining Packaging Corporation of America's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings results conference call. Your host today will be Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of PCA. Upon conclusion of his narrative, there will be a Q&A session. I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Kowlzan. Please proceed when you are ready.

    感謝您參加美國包裝公司2025年第四季及全年業績電話會議。今天的主持人是PCA董事長兼執行長馬克·科沃贊。他的敘述結束後,將進行問答環節。現在我將把電話轉給柯爾贊先生。準備好了請繼續。

  • Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks for the introduction, Jamie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for joining us today and participating in Packaging Corporation of America's fourth quarter 2025 earnings release conference call. Again, I'm Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO of PCA, and with me on the call today is Tom Hassfurther, our President, and Kent Pflederer, our Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝你的介紹,傑米。各位早安,感謝大家今天參加美國包裝公司2025年第四季財報發布電話會議。再次向大家介紹一下,我是 PCA 的董事長兼執行長 Mark Kowlzan,今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的總裁 Tom Hassfurther 和我們的財務長 Kent Pflederer。

  • I'll begin the call with an overview of our fourth quarter results, and then I'll be turning the call over to Tom and Kent, who will be providing more details.

    我將首先概述我們第四季度的業績,然後把電話交給湯姆和肯特,他們將提供更多細節。

  • After that, I'll wrap things up and then we'd be glad to take questions. Yesterday we reported fourth quarter net income of $102 million or $1.13 per share. Excluding the special items, fourth quarter 2025 net income was $209 million or $2.32 per sharecompared to the fourth quarter of 2024's net income of $222 million, or $2.47 per share.

    之後我會總結,然後我們很樂意回答問題。昨天我們公佈了第四季度淨利潤為 1.02 億美元,即每股 1.13 美元。剔除特殊項目後,2025 年第四季淨收入為 2.09 億美元,即每股 2.32 美元,而 2024 年第四季淨收入為 2.22 億美元,即每股 2.47 美元。

  • Fourth quarter net sales were $2.4 billion in 2025 and $2.1 billion in 2024. Total company EBITDA for the fourth quarter, excluding special items, was $486 million in 2025 and $439 million in 2024.

    2025 年第四季淨銷售額為 24 億美元,2024 年為 21 億美元。2025 年第四季公司總 EBITDA(不含特殊項目)為 4.86 億美元,2024 年為 4.39 億美元。

  • Excluding special items, we also reported full year 2025 earnings of $888 million or $9.84 per share compared to 2024's earnings of $815 million or $9.04 per share. Net sales were $9.0 billion in 2025 and $8.4 billion in 2024.Excluding special items, total company EBITDA in 2025 was $1.86 billion and $1.64 billion in 2024. Fourth quarter net income included special items expense of $1.19 per share, primarily for the Wallula Mill restructuring charges As well as costs relating to the acquisition and integration of the Grief Container Board business and costs related to the closure of corrugated products facilities.

    除特殊項目外,我們公佈的 2025 年全年收益為 8.88 億美元,即每股 9.84 美元,而 2024 年的收益為 8.15 億美元,即每股 9.04 美元。2025 年淨銷售額為 90 億美元,2024 年為 84 億美元。不計特殊項目,2025 年公司 EBITDA 總額為 18.6 億美元,2024 年為 16.4 億美元。第四季淨收入包括每股 1.19 美元的特殊項目支出,主要包括 Wallula 造紙廠重組費用,以及與收購和整合 Grief Container Board 業務相關的成本和與關閉瓦楞紙製品工廠相關的成本。

  • Details of these special items for both the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 and 2024 were included in the schedules that accompanied the earnings press release. Excluding the special items, our earnings decreased by $0.15 per share compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

    2025 年和 2024 年第四季和全年這些特殊項目的詳細資訊已包含在收益新聞稿附帶的附表中。在剔除特殊項目後,我們的每股盈餘比 2024 年第四季減少了 0.15 美元。

  • The decrease was driven primarily by lower production and sales volume in the legacy PCA business for $0.23higher operating costs $0.23, higher maintenance outage expense, $0.14. Higher depreciation expense in the legacy PCA packaging business for $0.07. Higher freight expense $0.06, higher interest expense excluding the Greif acquisition debt for $0.01, and lower production and sales volume in the Paper segment for $0.01.

    此次下降主要由以下因素造成:傳統 PCA 業務產量和銷量下降 0.23 美元;營運成本增加 0.23 美元;維護停機費用增加 0.14 美元;傳統 PCA 包裝業務折舊費用增加 0.07 美元;運費增加 0.06 美元;不包括 Greif 收購債務費用增加 0.07 美元;運費增加 0.06 美元;不包括 Greif 收購債務的支出增加 1010 美元。

  • These items were partially offset by higher prices and mix in the Packaging segment for $0.50, lower fiber costs, $0.10, lower fixed and other expenses, $0.04, and higher prices and mix in the Paper segment, $0.01.

    這些項目部分被包裝部門價格和產品組合上漲(0.50美元)、纖維成本下降(0.10美元)、固定和其他費用下降(0.04美元)以及紙張部門價格和產品組合上漲(0.01美元)所抵消。

  • The acquired Greif operations, including interest on the acquisition indebtedness, generated a loss of $0.05 during the fourth quarter, primarily as a result of extended outages at the Massillon mill in October and December to perform reliability maintenance activities and manage our inventory at the acquired operations.

    收購的 Greif 業務(包括收購債務的利息)在第四季度虧損 0.05 美元,主要原因是 Massillon 工廠在 10 月和 12 月進行了長時間的停產,以進行可靠性維護活動並管理我們在收購業務中的庫存。

  • Looking at our packaging business, EBITDA excluding special items in the fourth quarter 2025 of $476 million with sales of $2.2 billion resulted in a margin of 21.7% versus last year's EBITDA of $426 million sales of $2.0 billion, or a 21.5% margin.

    從我們的包裝業務來看,2025 年第四季不計特殊項目的 EBITDA 為 4.76 億美元,銷售額為 22 億美元,利潤率為 21.7%,而去年同期的 EBITDA 為 4.26 億美元,銷售額為 20 億美元,利潤率為 21.5%。

  • For the full year 2025, packaging segment EBITDA, excluding special items, was $1.83 billion with sales of $8.3 billion, or a 22.1% margin compared to the full year 2024 EBITDA of $1.6 billion with sales of $7.7 billion, or a 20.8% margin.

    2025 年全年,包裝業務部門的 EBITDA(不含特殊項目)為 18.3 億美元,銷售額為 83 億美元,利潤率為 22.1%;而 2024 年全年的 EBITDA 為 16 億美元,銷售額為 77 億美元,利潤率為 20.8%。

  • We ran to demand during the quarter and with the planned DeRidder maintenance outage and a full quarter of ownership of the acquired Greif operations, we produced 1,407,000 tons of containerboard. The legacy mills produced 1,235,000 tons of containerboard, 20,000 tons less than the third quarter, and 75,000 tons less than the fourth quarter of 2024.

    本季我們滿足了市場需求,加上計劃中的德里德維護停產以及對收購的格里夫業務的全面所有權,我們生產了 1,407,000 噸箱板紙。傳統工廠生產了 123.5 萬噸箱板紙,比第三季少了 2 萬噸,比 2024 年第四季少了 7.5 萬噸。

  • System-wide, our inventories were at the same level as at the end of the third quarter, and with the acquired Greif operations 84,000 tons up from the beginning of the year.

    系統整體而言,我們的庫存與第三季末的水平持平,加上收購的 Greif 業務,庫存比年初增加了 84,000 噸。

  • Operational performance during the quarter was again strong across the entire mill system and corrugated system, and we managed costs extremely well throughout the company.

    本季整個工廠系統和瓦楞紙板系統的營運表現依然強勁,公司各部門的成本控制也做得非常出色。

  • We made good progress on the integration and improvement of the acquired Greif assets with better reliability and performance at both mills and completion of key systems integration activities. We do not expect to take any additional outages at the mills until their annual maintenance outages later in the year and will operate the business at capacity.

    我們在整合和改進收購的 Greif 資產方面取得了良好進展,兩家工廠的可靠性和性能均有所提高,並完成了關鍵的系統整合活動。我們預計在今年稍後工廠進行年度維護停機之前,不會再出現任何額外的停機情況,並將以滿載運作業務。

  • We're on track to complete the Wallula restructuring activities by mid-February, and we will begin to benefit from the improved cost structure beginning in March. I'd like to give an update on the gas turbine energy projects that we're currently working on in the engineering phase.

    我們正按計劃推進 Wallula 的重組工作,預計將於 2 月中旬完成,並將於 3 月開始受益於成本結構的改善。我想向大家報告我們目前正在工程階段進行的燃氣渦輪機能源專案的最新進展。

  • The plan includes the installation of gas turbines at the Jackson, Alabama mill and the Riverville, Virginia mills over the next 30 months.

    該計劃包括在未來 30 個月內在阿拉巴馬州傑克遜的工廠和弗吉尼亞州里弗維爾的工廠安裝燃氣渦輪機。

  • These locations have relatively high purchased power costs and good, reliable gas supply, as well as demand for the additional power that we can internally generate. We expect that these projects would involve roughly $250 million of total capital some to be spent in 2026, but most of it coming in 2027 and 2028. The expected returns are in the mid to high teens, and most importantly, it would make us energy independent at these facilities and protect us from future rising electrical rates.

    這些地區購電成本相對較高,天然氣供應良好可靠,對我們內部可以生產的額外電力也有需求。我們預計這些項目將涉及約 2.5 億美元的總資本,其中一部分將在 2026 年支出,但大部分將在 2027 年和 2028 年支出。預計收益將在十幾到二十幾之間,最重要的是,這將使我們這些設施實現能源獨立,並保護我們免受未來電價上漲的影響。

  • We're finalizing the scope and we'll seek Board approval during the first quarter. We're also working on plans for a third installation at one of our mills, and we'll provide more details at the appropriate time. We have a lot of good options and we're considering all of these.

    我們正在敲定專案範圍,並將在第一季尋求董事會批准。我們還在製定計劃,準備在我們的一家工廠安裝第三套設備,我們將在適當的時候提供更多細節。我們有很多不錯的選擇,我們正在考慮所有這些選擇。

  • I'm now going to turn it over to Tom, who'll provide more details on containerboard sales and the corrugated business. Tom.

    現在我將把發言權交給湯姆,他將提供有關箱板紙銷售和瓦楞紙板業務的更多詳細資訊。湯姆。

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • Thanks, Mark. Domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices and mix were $0.50 per share above the fourth quarter of 2024 and down $0.32 per share compared to the third quarter of 2025. This is mix related as our fourth quarter is seasonally less rich, incorporating more holidaydriven e-com.

    謝謝你,馬克。國內箱板紙和瓦楞紙製品的價格和結構比 2024 年第四季每股高出 0.50 美元,比 2025 年第三季每股下降 0.32 美元。這與產品組合有關,因為我們的第四季季節性業務量較少,且較多包含與假日相關的電子商務。

  • Export containerboard prices were flat with last year's fourth quarter and down $0.01 from the third quarter of 2025. Export sales volume of containerboard was up 12,000 tons from the third quarter of 2025 and down 15,000 tons from the fourth quarter of 2024.

    出口箱板紙價格與去年第四季持平,比 2025 年第三季下降 0.01 美元。箱板紙出口銷售量比 2025 年第三季增加 12,000 噸,比 2024 年第四季減少 15,000 噸。

  • In the legacy business, corrugated shipments per day and in total were down 1.7% versus last year's record fourth quarter when per day shipments were up more than 9% over 2023.

    在傳統業務方面,瓦楞紙板的日均出貨量和總出貨量與去年創紀錄的第四季相比下降了 1.7%,而去年第四季的日均出貨量比 2023 年成長了 9% 以上。

  • That said, 2025 fourth quarter legacy box plant shipments were the second highest ever for the year. Our corrugated shipments were essentially flat with 2024.

    也就是說,2025 年第四季傳統紙箱工廠的出貨量是該年度有史以來第二高。2024 年,我們的瓦楞紙板出貨量基本上持平。

  • Our order book strengthened in November and December, and though we were ultimately disappointed with December shipment volume, we've seen this strength reflected in January's shipments so far.

    11 月和 12 月我們的訂單量有所增加,雖然我們最終對 12 月的出貨量感到失望,但到目前為止,我們已經看到這種強勁勢頭反映在 1 月的出貨量中。

  • While our corrugated volume and mix ended up below our fourth quarter forecast, the underlying volume trends were positive heading into 2026.

    雖然我們的瓦楞紙板產量和種類最終低於第四季度的預測,但到 2026 年,潛在的產量趨勢是正面的。

  • To provide a little more color, December got off to a strong start, leading us to believe that we would grow our volume over last year. Later in the month, customers appeared to manage their already low inventories further down for year end.

    為了增添一些色彩,12 月開局強勁,這讓我們相信我們的銷量會比去年有所成長。當月晚些時候,客戶似乎為了迎接年底,進一步降低了本已很低的庫存。

  • The exception was e-commerce, which continued to remain strong well into the first week of January. In addition to the volume implications, this unfavorably impacted our December mix. The good news is that January is up significantly in terms of bookings and billings from a strong comp in 2025 where we were up 5% over 2024, January bookings in our legacy corrugated in sheet plants are up over 11% and billings are up 8% on a per-day basis through last Thursday. We're seeing improvement across our customer base, which is a good sign for healthier underlying demand.

    電子商務是個例外,它在一月份的第一周仍然保持強勁勢頭。除了銷售方面的影響外,這也對我們 12 月的產品組合產生了不利影響。好消息是,與 2025 年強勁的同比數據相比,1 月份的訂單量和賬單金額均大幅增長(2025 年我們比 2024 年增長了 5%),而截至上週四,我們傳統瓦楞紙板廠 1 月份的訂單量增長了 11% 以上,賬單按日計算增長了 8%。我們看到客戶群整體情況有所改善,這對潛在需求的健康成長來說是一個好兆頭。

  • Based on what we've seen so far, we are forecasting solid year-over-year growth for the first quarter and seasonal improvement in our mix. Our containerboard system is tightening up, and we will need to run at full capacity to support our demand.

    根據我們目前所看到的,我們預測第一季將實現穩健的同比增長,並且我們的產品組合將出現季節性改善。我們的箱板紙生產體係正在收緊,我們需要滿載運作以滿足市場需求。

  • Including the acquisition, shipments were up 17% over last year for the fourth quarter and 6% for the year. The acquired plants had a very good quarter, outperforming our expectations, and are also off to a strong start to the year.

    包括此次收購在內,第四季出貨量比去年同期成長了 17%,全年成長了 6%。收購的工廠本季業績非常好,超出了我們的預期,今年開局也很強勁。

  • We made good progress on integration and are working toward operating as a single corrugated system as soon as we can with systems integration work ongoing.

    我們在整合方面取得了良好進展,並正在努力盡快實現作為單一瓦楞紙板系統的運行,系統整合工作也在進行中。

  • We still have work to do to optimize the inventory levels and paper grades carried by the acquired plants. We're working off the remain remaining containerboard purchase and trade commitments and ended the quarter at approximately the same inventory levels that we began, which is higher than what we had forecast.

    我們仍需努力優化收購工廠的庫存水準和紙張等級。我們正在努力完成剩餘的箱板紙採購和貿易承諾,本季末的庫存水準與季度初大致相同,高於我們先前的預測。

  • We had planned to bring the inventory levels down significantly while simplifying the grades, carried at the plants, and leveraging the larger integrated system. This will take place over the next two quarters, and better day-to-day visibility once our systems are in place will certainly help us.

    我們計劃大幅降低庫存水平,同時簡化工廠生產的等級,並利用更大的整合系統。這將在接下來的兩個季度內完成,一旦我們的系統到位,更好的日常可視性肯定會對我們有所幫助。

  • Last week, we notified our customers of a $70 per ton price increase on our linerboard and corrugated medium grades effective March 1. We will work as we normally do to implement the full price increase. And I'll turn it back to Mark.

    上週,我們通知客戶,自 3 月 1 日起,我們的箱板紙和中瓦楞紙價格將每噸上漲 70 美元。我們將按正常流程執行全部漲價措施。然後我會把它轉還給馬克。

  • Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Tom. Looking at the Paper segment, EBITDA, excluding special items in the fourth quarter was $37 million with sales of $154 million, or 24.2% margin compared to the fourth quarter 2024 EBITDA of $39 million and sales of $151 million, or a 25.9% margin. Sales volume was 1% above the fourth quarter of 2024 and 4% below the third quarter of 2025.

    謝謝你,湯姆。從造紙業務來看,第四季不計特殊項目的 EBITDA 為 3,700 萬美元,銷售額為 1.54 億美元,利潤率為 24.2%;而 2024 年第四季的 EBITDA 為 3,900 萬美元,銷售額為 1.51 億美元,利潤率為 25.9%。銷售量比 2024 年第四季成長 1%,比 2025 年第三季下降 4%。

  • Prices and mix were up 1% from the fourth quarter of 2024 and down less than a percent from the third quarter of 2025. Performance exceeded our expectation on higher sales volume and strong underlying operating performance at the International Falls mill.

    價格和產品組合比 2024 年第四季上漲 1%,比 2025 年第三季下降不到 1%。國際瀑布工廠的銷售量增加,營運業績強勁,業績超乎預期。

  • For the full year, Paper segment EBITDA was $148 million with $615 million of sales, or a 24.1% margin. 2024's EBITDA was $154 million on sales of $625 million, or a 24.6% margin. I'll now turn it over to Kent.

    全年來看,造紙業務板塊的息稅折舊攤提前利潤(EBITDA)為1.48億美元,銷售額為6.15億美元,利潤率為24.1%。 2024年的息稅折舊攤提前利潤為1.54億美元,銷售額為6.25億美元,利潤率為24.6%。現在我把它交給肯特。

  • Kent Pflederer - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary

    Kent Pflederer - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary

  • Thanks, Mark. Cash provided by operations was a fourth quarter record $443 million, and after $319 million of CapEx, free cash flow was $124 million.

    謝謝你,馬克。經營活動產生的現金流在第四季創下 4.43 億美元的紀錄,在 3.19 億美元的資本支出之後,自由現金流為 1.24 億美元。

  • In addition to CapEx, the primary payments of cash during the quarter included share repurchases of $153 million dividend payments of $112 million net interest payments of $53 million and cash tax payments of $15 million. We repurchased 760,000 shares during the quarter at an average price of $201.03.

    除了資本支出外,本季的主要現金支出包括股票回購 1.53 億美元、股息支付 1.12 億美元、淨利息支付 5,300 萬美元以及現金稅款支付 1,500 萬美元。本季我們以平均每股 201.03 美元的價格回購了 760,000 股股票。

  • We have approximately $283 million of remaining repurchase authority. For the full year 2025, cash from operations was $1.55 billion with capital spending of $829 million and free cash flow of $725 million.

    我們還有大約 2.83 億美元的剩餘回購授權。2025 年全年,經營活動產生的現金為 15.5 億美元,資本支出為 8.29 億美元,自由現金流為 7.25 億美元。

  • Our year-end cash-on-hand balance, including marketable securities, was $668 million with a liquidity of about $1.25 billion. Our final recurring effective tax rate for 2025 was 24.7%. Regarding full year estimates of certain key items for the upcoming year, we currently estimate dividend payments of $450 million total CapEx to be in the range of $840 million to $870 million and DD&A is expected to be approximately $700 million.

    我們年末的現金餘額(包括有價證券)為 6.68 億美元,流動資金約為 12.5 億美元。我們 2025 年的最終經常性有效稅率為 24.7%。關於來年某些關鍵項目的全年估算,我們目前預計股息支付為 4.5 億美元,總資本支出在 8.4 億美元至 8.7 億美元之間,折舊和攤提預計約為 7 億美元。

  • Our full year interest expense in 2026 is expected to be approximately $139 million and net cash interest payment should be about $147 million. The estimate for our 2026 book effective tax rate is 25%. We have planned annual outages in 2026 at all of our mills, which will cover a higher number of outage days and tons in 2025.

    預計 2026 年全年利息支出約 1.39 億美元,淨現金利息支付約 1.47 億美元。我們預計 2026 年的圖書有效稅率為 25%。我們計劃在 2026 年對所有工廠進行年度停產檢修,這將比 2025 年的停產天數和噸數更多。

  • Including lost volume, direct costs, and amortized repair costs, we currently expect the outages to total about $1.39 per share. The current estimated impact by quarter during the year is $0.16 per share in the first quarter, $0.35 in the second $0.24 in the third and $0.63 in the fourth quarter.

    包括銷售損失、直接成本和攤銷維修成本在內,我們目前預計停電造成的損失總計約為每股 1.39 美元。根據目前的估計,本年度各季度每股影響分別為:第一季 0.16 美元,第二季 0.35 美元,第三季 0.24 美元,第四季 0.63 美元。

  • I'll now turn it back over to Mark.

    現在我把麥克風交還給馬克。

  • Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Kent. Our employees put in a tremendous effort and delivered outstanding results for PCA during 2025 when business conditions were challenging at various times.

    謝謝你,肯特。2025 年,在商業環境多次面臨挑戰的情況下,我們的員工付出了巨大的努力,為 PCA 取得了卓越的成果。

  • We completed the acquisition of the Greif business and achieved significant progress on integration and improving excellence in customer service and operations. We successfully started up our Glendale, Arizona plant and completed numerous capital and operational projects to improve our capabilities and efficiency in our corrugated business and continue to serve and profitably grow with our customers. Our paper business continued to deliver outstanding results through its commitment to customer service and manufacturing excellence.

    我們完成了對 Greif 業務的收購,並在整合以及提高客戶服務和營運水準方面取得了顯著進展。我們成功啟動了位於亞利桑那州格倫代爾的工廠,並完成了許多資本和營運項目,以提高我們在瓦楞紙板業務方面的能力和效率,並繼續為客戶提供服務,實現盈利增長。我們的造紙業務憑藉對客戶服務和卓越製造的承諾,持續取得優異的業績。

  • As a company, we still have many key strategic capital opportunities in progress or ahead for the 2026 year and beyond. Our balance sheet remains high quality. We have flexibility to continue to take advantage of internal or external investment opportunities that generate shareholder value.

    作為一家公司,我們仍然有許多重要的策略資本機會正在進行或即將於 2026 年及以後實施。我們的資產負債表依然保持良好狀態。我們有能力持續利用內部或外部投資機會,為股東創造價值。

  • We continue our time-tested and balanced approach towards capital allocation, investing in our business to profitably grow our earnings and cash flows, and returning value to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

    我們繼續採取久經考驗且平衡的資本配置方法,投資於我們的業務以實現獲利成長和現金流成長,並透過股利和股票回購為股東創造價值。

  • We accomplished a lot in 2025 and are positioned to accomplish even more this year. Looking ahead as we move from the fourth and into the first quarter, as Tom mentioned, we see demand improving and expect year-over-year growth in corrugated volume in our legacy box plants and strong shipment volume from the acquired plants. First quarter volume is seasonally lower than the fourth quarter, and even with one more shipping day, overall volume is expected to be slightly lower than the fourth quarter.

    我們在 2025 年取得了許多成就,今年有望取得更大的成就。展望未來,從第四季度過渡到第一季度,正如湯姆所提到的,我們看到需求正在改善,預計我們原有紙箱廠的瓦楞紙產量將同比增長,收購的工廠的出貨量也將強勁增長。第一季銷售通常低於第四季度,即使多出一天的出貨時間,預計整體銷售仍將略低於第四季。

  • We'll now be running our mills full, but production will be lower than the fourth quarter with two fewer operating days, slightly more outage tons, and Wallula running in its new reconfigured state. We expect slightly lower inventory levels at the quarter end.

    現在我們將滿載運轉工廠,但由於營運天數減少兩天、停產噸數略有增加,以及 Wallula 工廠以新的重新配置狀態運行,產量將低於第四季。我們預計季度末庫存水準將略有下降。

  • Price and mix will seasonally improve, and we expect to see some benefits from our containerboard price increase in March.

    價格和產品組合將隨季節變化而改善,我們預計 3 月箱板紙價格上漲將帶來一些好處。

  • Export containerboard sales will be slightly higher in the fourth quarter and prices should be flat to slightly down. Paper volumes will be lower, with two fewer operating days, and price/mix is expected to be slightly lower and will begin to improve in March with our recently announced uncoded freesheet price increase.

    第四季出口箱板紙銷量將略有成長,價格預計將保持穩定或略有下降。紙張用量將會減少,營業天數也會減少兩天,價格/組合預計會略有下降,隨著我們最近宣布的非編碼免費紙張價格上漲,這種情況將在 3 月開始改善。

  • With the exception of fiber prices, we expect price inflation across most of our direct, indirect, and fixed operating and converting costs.

    除了纖維價格外,我們預期大部分直接、間接和固定營運及轉換成本都會出現價格上漲。

  • In addition, wood, energy, and chemical costs will also increase due to winter conditions that impact usages and yields for these items. Our cost structure will begin to benefit from the Wallula reconfiguration during the month of March.

    此外,由於冬季天氣狀況影響木材、能源和化學品的用量和產量,這些成本也將增加。從三月開始,Wallula 的重組將使我們的成本結構受益。

  • Labor and benefits costs will be higher due to the normal timing-related items that occur at the beginning of the new year for annual increases, the restart of payroll taxes, and share-based compensation expenses. Freight will be slightly higher and we expect slightly lower depreciation expense.

    由於新年伊始通常會有與時間相關的項目,例如年度成長、工資稅的重新徵收以及股權激勵費用,因此勞動力和福利成本將會更高。運費將略有上漲,我們預計折舊費用將略有下降。

  • Lastly, scheduled outage expenses will be lower, and we assume a lower corporate tax rate. Considering these items, we expect first quarter earnings of $2.20 per share, excluding special items.

    最後,計畫內停機費用會降低,我們假設企業稅率也會降低。考慮到這些因素,我們預計第一季每股收益為 2.20 美元(不計特殊項目)。

  • We are in fact assessing last weekend's winter storm across multiple regions, which caused some of our plants to be down earlier in the week and which could negatively impact shipments and operating and transportation costs for the quarter.

    事實上,我們正​​在評估上週末席捲多個地區的冬季風暴的影響,這場風暴導致我們的一些工廠在本週早些時候停工,這可能會對本季的出貨量、營運成本和運輸成本產生負面影響。

  • With that, we'd be happy to entertain any questions, but I must remind you that some of the statements we've made on the call constituted forward-looking statements.

    最後,我們很樂意回答任何問題,但我必須提醒各位,我們在電話會議上所作的一些陳述構成了前瞻性陳述。

  • The statements were based on current estimates, expectations, and projections of a company and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including the direction of the economy.

    這些聲明是基於公司目前的估計、預期和預測,並涉及固有的風險和不確定性,包括經濟走向。

  • And those identified as risk factors in the annual report on Form 10-k on file with the SEC. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.

    以及在提交給美國證券交易委員會的 10-k 表格年度報告中確定的風險因素。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中所表達的結果有重大差異。

  • And with that, Jamie, I'd like to open the call for the Q&A.

    接下來,傑米,我想正式開始問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions).

    (操作說明)

  • George Staphos, Bank of America Securities.

    喬治‧斯塔福斯,美國銀行證券。

  • George Staphos - Analyst

    George Staphos - Analyst

  • Thanks everyone good morning thanks for the details. Hope you're doing well I guess the first question I had is on operations in the mills and I guess, yeah, in the mills overall we have the outages you call out the sequential pick up in variable costs, for inputs, we have a, fewer days and also you're going to be trying to take down inventory to some degree.

    謝謝大家,早安,謝謝你們提供的詳細資料。希望你一切都好。我想我的第一個問題是關於工廠的運作。是的,工廠整體上存在停工問題,正如你所提到的,變動成本的順序性下降,投入品的供應天數減少,而且你還要在一定程度上努力降低庫存。

  • Can, is there a way to maybe size or give us a bit more granularity on what looks like it'll be a decent, increase in cost per ton, in the containerboard business, we're not surprised by the 1Q sequential drop, but just trying to, figure out in earnings, just trying to get a, maybe a little bit of granularity on what the cost per ton might look like for 4Q to 1Q.

    能否提供一些更具體的數據,讓我們更清楚地了解箱板紙業務每噸成本的明顯成長?我們對第一季環比下降並不感到意外,但只是想弄清楚收益情況,希望能更詳細地了解第四季度到第一季每噸成本的變化。

  • Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I'm not sure. We're going to run the system full. We've got the typical, seasonal weather impacts taking place along with the recent storm, so there's some uncertainty there. But again, we're basically faced with the normal, year over year inflationary concerns that we always see in January with labor, medical benefits, cost type matters, and then just the winter usage and yield matters with energy and wood. Again, I'd like to give you a number, but I don't have that off the top of my head.

    我不知道。我們將讓系統滿載運作。除了最近的風暴之外,我們還面臨典型的季節性天氣影響,所以這方面存在一些不確定性。但話說回來,我們基本上還是面臨著每年一月都會出現的正常通膨問題,例如勞動成本、醫療福利、成本類型問題,以及冬季能源和木材的使用和產量問題。我再次想給你一個數字,但我一時想不起來。

  • Concerns that we always see in January with labor, medical benefits, cost type matters, and then just the winter usage and yield matters with energy and wood. Again, I'd like to give you a number, but I don't have that off the top of my head.

    每年一月,我們都會關注勞動力、醫療福利、成本類型等議題,以及冬季能源和木材的使用和產量等議題。我再次想給你一個數字,但我一時想不起來。

  • George Staphos - Analyst

    George Staphos - Analyst

  • No, that's okay, Mark. I guess maybe a related question. I know you're still assessing, but what have you built into your guidance for the quarter related to the winter storms, from an earnings standpoint or more, sort of a factor standpoint, from a volume versus cost, qualitatively.

    不,沒關係,馬克。我想問一個相關的問題。我知道你們還在評估,但是從獲利角度來看,或者從銷售與成本的角度來看,你們在季度業績指引中考慮了哪些與冬季風暴相關的因素?

  • Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • George, we're just starting, we've had plants down from the Texas region all the way across the Gulf region up through the mid-Atlantic.

    喬治,我們才剛起步,我們的工廠遍布從德克薩斯州到墨西哥灣沿岸地區,一直延伸到大西洋中部地區。

  • Some of these areas are still down without power. We've got power outages continuing in Tennessee. The Dallas region is -- has thawed out and coming back, but things are coming back as we speak, literally on the on the call this morning. The mills ran through this, the two biggest mills that were impacted, the Counce, Tennessee mill and the Riverville, Virginia mill.

    部分地區仍停電。田納西州持續停電。達拉斯地區已經解凍並正在恢復,但就在我們說話的此刻,就在今天早上的電話會議上,情況還在恢復中。工廠也受到了影響,其中受影響最大的兩家工廠是田納西州康斯工廠和維吉尼亞州里弗維爾工廠。

  • Both mills did run through this quite well. We had exceptional support from all of the employees, and the mills ran through this the problem was we couldn't ship any tons out during the period of time.

    兩台機器都運作得相當不錯。我們得到了全體員工的大力支持,工廠也順利運轉,問題是我們無法在此期間出貨。

  • So just in the last 24 hours we started moving trucks and rail into Counce and Riverville, but nevertheless we have had a huge number of the box plant system down for the few days. Tom, do you want to add a little color on that because it's.

    就在過去 24 小時內,我們開始將卡車和鐵路運往康斯和里弗維爾,但儘管如此,我們還是有大量的箱體生產系統在幾天內停駛了。湯姆,你想給它加點顏色嗎?因為它…

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • I think the important thing is, George, to understand it's going to be very hard for us to get our arms around this until we find out, what the impact is on that book of orders that were not shipped in the short-term.

    我認為重要的是,喬治,你要明白,在我們弄清楚短期內尚未發貨的訂單會受到什麼影響之前,我們很難掌握這件事的全貌。

  • And whether they, whether they'll pick back up with our customers going forward. Obviously, our customers were down as well. So it's, we've been through these before and sometimes, and if it's too long of a process, there are orders lost.

    以及他們是否會繼續與我們的客戶保持聯繫。顯然,我們的客戶也受到了影響。所以,我們以前也經歷過這種情況,有時候,如果流程太長,就會失去訂單。

  • Other times we get right back up and we can catch up. So we'll just have to see as this month goes on and really kind of probably as this winter goes on because they're calling for another big storm, coming on the in the mid-Atlantic and southern region this weekend, so, we'll just have to see what happens.

    有時候我們能很快重新振作起來,趕上進度。所以,我們只能拭目以待,看看這個月乃至整個冬天會發生什麼,因為預報說本週末大西洋中部和南部地區將迎來另一場大風暴,所以,我們只能看看會發生什麼了。

  • But I think overall, I mean, we have -- I think we weathered it pretty decent, although we had a lot of box plants down, and the transportation is another big issue that, exists whether it's rail or truck, if we can get the product out once we get the plants and mills up and going.

    但我認為總體而言,我們——我的意思是,我認為我們挺過來了,雖然我們有很多工廠停工了,而且運輸是另一個大問題,無論是鐵路還是卡車,只要我們能讓工廠和磨坊恢復運轉,就能把產品運出去。

  • Kent Pflederer - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary

    Kent Pflederer - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary

  • George, back to your first question, it's Kent Ex-freight. And with a little bit of a Wallula benefit and but not all of it, we're about $15 million total on the cost line in the mills so running that through that's maybe $10 a ton.

    喬治,回到你的第一個問題,是肯特貨運公司。加上一些 Wallula 的收益(但不是全部),我們在工廠的成本線上總共花費了大約 1500 萬美元,所以算下來每噸大約是 10 美元。

  • George Staphos - Analyst

    George Staphos - Analyst

  • Okay, I appreciate that, Kent. Last one I'll turn it over, just be mindful what gives you comfort that at Massillon you're through the reliability issues and for that matter what gives you comfort and what caused the inventory mismatch, in the acquired facilities, again presuming it's going to be worked down but hopefully by 1Q, but what caused that? Thank you, guys, good luck in the quarter.

    好的,謝謝你,肯特。最後一個問題,我把它翻過來,你只需要記住是什麼讓你確信馬西隆的可靠性問題已經解決,以及是什麼讓你確信收購的設施庫存不匹配,再次假設這個問題會得到解決,但希望在第一季度就能解決,那麼是什麼原因造成的呢?謝謝各位,祝你們這學期好運。

  • Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, I'll talk about the operational matters and then I'll let Tom talk about the inventory. During the month of -- if you went back to the acquisition date in September, we spent six straight weeks with probably 200 PCA personnel assisting Massillon along with contractors, essentially rebuilding Massillon Mill from bearings, bushings, pumps, motors, we put our hands on everything.

    好的,我先談談營運方面的事情,然後讓湯姆談談庫存方面的事情。如果追溯到 9 月的收購日期,我們花了整整六週時間,大約有 200 名 PCA 人員與承包商一起協助 Massillon,基本上從軸承、襯套、泵、電機開始重建 Massillon 工廠,我們事無巨細,親力親為。

  • Gas turbine rebuild again, all of the mechanical infrastructure and then during the period of time during December that the mill was down, we continued to address some of the even finer detail items, some. Operational improvements, even down to lubrication technology, again, more bearing monitoring.

    燃氣渦輪機再次重建,所有機械基礎設施,然後在 12 月工廠停工期間,我們繼續處理一些更精細的細節事項。營運方面的改進,甚至包括潤滑技術,以及加強軸承監測。

  • So I'd like to say that over a 3.5-month period of time we've essentially rebuilt the Massillon mill. So it's become the little mill that could, it's we've improved operational efficiency at both Massillon and Riverville from the, probably 15% improvement overall in operational efficiency, the way we measure efficiency, so both mills are very close now to running to the PCA standard, efficiencies.

    所以我想說,在短短三個半月的時間裡,我們基本上重建了馬西隆磨坊。所以它變成了小而精的工廠,我們在馬西隆和里弗維爾的運營效率都提高了,整體運營效率可能提高了 15%(這是我們衡量效率的方式),所以現在兩家工廠的效率都非常接近 PCA 標準。

  • Tom, do you want to talk about the inventory.

    湯姆,你想談談庫存狀況嗎?

  • Kent Pflederer - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary

    Kent Pflederer - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary

  • So George, I'll at least start on the Massillon piece to quantify it. We were maybe 10,000 tons above where we'd forecasted, finishing up the year.

    所以喬治,我至少會開始著手處理馬西隆那部分,以便進行量化。年底時,我們的產量可能比預測高出1萬噸。

  • Some of that were taking purchase commitment tons. Some of that was we were a little bit lower than forecasted shipment volume. So Tom, I'll let you.

    其中一些涉及大量的採購承諾。部分原因是我們的出貨量略低於預期。湯姆,那我就放你走吧。

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • Okay, so I think George, think of it this way, we had, we knew we had a lot of work that needed to be done. We knew we had to get our reliability up in a number of things, and, fortunately we had the financial flexibility to go do that right away to prepare us for 2026 and the demand we saw coming forward in 2026.

    好吧,喬治,你可以這樣想,我們知道有很多工作要做。我們知道我們必須在許多方面提高可靠性,幸運的是,我們有足夠的財務彈性,可以立即著手去做,為 2026 年以及我們預見的 2026 年的需求做好準備。

  • Now that said that, everybody did an outstanding job. And we've got -- we've we're in good shape starting in 2026, but there's another big piece of this that was part of that inventory miss, and that is that we had the -- Greif had a lot of containerboard purchase and trade commitments that were in place that we just chose to absorb basically in the fourth quarter.

    話雖如此,每個人都做得非常好。我們從 2026 年開始情況良好,但庫存不足還有另一個重要因素,那就是 Greif 有很多箱板紙採購和貿易承諾,我們基本上選擇在第四季度消化這些承諾。

  • And we don't have a lot of visibility from a system's point of view into a lot of their day-to-day activities like we do at PCA. So those were the main, those were the main drivers for the inventory miss. And, but I think that, I think the most important thing is we got all that work done up front and put ourselves in good shape for 2026.

    從系統的角度來看,我們不像在 PCA 那樣,對他們的日常活動有很多了解。所以,這些就是導致庫存不足的主要原因。但我認為,最重要的是我們已經提前完成了所有工作,為 2026 年做好了充分的準備。

  • George Staphos - Analyst

    George Staphos - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Roxland, Truist Securities.

    Michael Roxland,Truist Securities。

  • Michael Roxland - Analyst

    Michael Roxland - Analyst

  • Yeah, thank you, Mark, Tom, and Kent for taking my questions. Just wanted, Tom, wanted to follow-up on that last point in terms of the purchase and trade commitments that Greif had in place.

    是的,謝謝馬克、湯姆和肯特回答我的問題。湯姆,我只是想就格里夫已做出的採購和貿易承諾的最後一點進行跟進。

  • Just provide some more color around those commitments. Is it something that you're looking to keep? Is something that you're looking to get rid of once those contracts expire? Just any color you can provide around those commitments and what you're looking to do with them.

    請對這些承諾進行更詳細的闡述。這是你想保留的東西嗎?這是你打算在合約到期後處理掉的東西嗎?只要你能圍繞這些承諾以及你想用它們做什麼來表達你的想法,任何顏色都可以。

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • Okay, Mike, I'm going to ignore the color part and just tell you that those commitments and purchases we no longer are keeping or, pursuing or anything like that. Those were agreements that Greif had. We would not typically have any of those in place and we're discontinuing those. We met the commitments and we're moving forward from there.

    好的,麥克,我就忽略顏色部分,直接告訴你,我們不再履行或繼續履行那些承諾和購買,或做任何類似的事情。那些都是格里夫達成的協議。我們通常不會採取這些措施,現在我們將停止這些措施。我們履行了承諾,現在正以此為基礎繼續前進。

  • Michael Roxland - Analyst

    Michael Roxland - Analyst

  • Perfect. Got it. And it sounds like demand has inflected a need to run full, but you have two less shipping days in 1Q. So this is a theoretical question. I mean, if you had those two extra shipping days in 1Q, would things be looser and volumes be softer, or has demand firmed up enough such that you would still be running full even with those two extra shipping days?

    完美的。知道了。聽起來需求促使你們必須滿載運轉,但你們第一季的出貨天數卻減少了兩天。這是一個理論問題。我的意思是,如果第一季多出兩天出貨時間,情況會不會更寬鬆,銷量會不會更疲軟?還是說需求已經夠強勁,即使多兩天出貨時間,銷量仍會滿載運轉?

  • Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • If we had the two extra days we'd still be running full. I mean the way we've looked at the entire year for the full 2026, we expect to run the entire mill system, full out and so -- which is a high-class problem to have. So Tom, you want to add anything?

    如果我們有額外的兩天時間,我們仍然會滿載運轉。我的意思是,根據我們對 2026 年全年的展望,我們預計整個工廠系統將全力運轉——這真是個幸福的煩惱。湯姆,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • It's this is just a matter of a 30-day period that we're looking at as opposed to the long-term, so we would absolutely be running full out if we had the two extra days.

    我們現在考慮的只是 30 天的短期計劃,而不是長期計劃,所以如果我們有額外的兩天時間,我們肯定會全力以赴。

  • Michael Roxland - Analyst

    Michael Roxland - Analyst

  • Got it. And then just from a demand perspective, you guys have called out on recent quarters the housing environment. You've called out protein. Any inflection in those particular markets that are contributing to this better demand?

    知道了。然後,從需求角度來看,你們最近幾季都提到了住房環境問題。你提到了蛋白質。這些特定市場中是否存在促成需求成長的轉捩點?

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • Well, I think as I mentioned in in the comments that the underlying demand is improving, and it's improving in all the segments, which is what's really positive for us.

    嗯,正如我在評論中提到的,潛在需求正在改善,而且各個細分市場的需求都在改善,這對我們來說才是真正的利好消息。

  • As I've talked about over the last, certainly last year and maybe even going into the previous year, auto building products, durables, those segments were down and continued to be down all the way through the fourth quarter.

    正如我在過去一年,甚至可能更早之前一年一直談到的那樣,汽車製造產品、耐用品等細分市場都在下滑,並且一直下滑到第四季。

  • But -- and they work their inventories down to the bare bones also, by the way, and we're seeing some pickup in that area, and that's a real positive for us because those are still large segments for us and obviously we're obviously we're doing well in the other segments and the other segments continue to do well, but I think, consumer sentiment's getting better, the GDP's up 4% the previous quarter, a little over 4%.

    但是——順便說一句,他們也在努力減少庫存,我們看到這方面有所回升,這對我們來說是一個真正的利好消息,因為這些仍然是我們很大的業務板塊,顯然我們在其他板塊也做得很好,而且其他板塊也繼續表現良好,但我認為,消費者信心正在好轉,上一季度GDP增長了4%,略高於4%。

  • Forecast to be up over 5% this quarter. If you just think about, at worst, box demand could trend at half of the GDP, and that's a big number, in terms of demand.

    預計本季將成長超過5%。想想看,最糟糕的情況下,盒子需求可能會達到 GDP 的一半,就需求而言,這是一個很大的數字。

  • So, everything underlying demand has been, is very positive right now, Mike.

    所以,麥克,目前所有潛在的需求都非常樂觀。

  • Michael Roxland - Analyst

    Michael Roxland - Analyst

  • Got it, thank you. And just one quick, follow-up just on a housekeeping question. Are you reflecting the $70 per ton in your 1Q guide? So is that part -- is that you got that $70 per ton for March 1, is that included in the $2.20 you're guiding for 1Q.

    明白了,謝謝。最後還有一個關於家務事的問題需要快速跟進。你們第一季的指導方針中是否反映了每噸70美元的價格?所以,那一部分——也就是你3月1日收到的每噸70美元的價格,是否包含在你對第一季每噸2.20美元的指導價中?

  • Kent Pflederer - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary

    Kent Pflederer - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary

  • The answer is no, we have a little bit into March, but not the full benefit.

    答案是否定的,我們已經進入三月的一小部分,但還沒有完全享受到好處。

  • Michael Roxland - Analyst

    Michael Roxland - Analyst

  • So you are baking in though but so you are, you are counting that in your 1Q a little to some extent.

    所以你確實把這些因素考慮進去了,在某種程度上,你把這些因素也算進了你的第一季預算中。

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • A small, just a small amount is what we're putting in the forecast, as these price increases, I mean, they take place over, for us they take place over about a 90 day period, and then we have some contracts that extend to mid-year and, that sort of thing, but.

    我們在預測中只加入了很小的金額,因為這些價格上漲,我的意思是,對我們來說,它們會在大約 90 天的時間內發生,然後我們有一些合約會持續到年中等等,但是。

  • For the most part, I mean, you're, we're baking in of course it's effective starting March 1, but we can, we can't bake on, bake in the full amount, obviously.

    大部分情況下,我的意思是,我們當然要烘焙,這當然是從 3 月 1 日開始生效的,但是我們不能,我們不能烘焙全部的量,顯然。

  • Michael Roxland - Analyst

    Michael Roxland - Analyst

  • Got it. Very helpful. Thanks very much and good luck in 2Q.

    知道了。很有幫助。非常感謝,祝您第二季一切順利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Adam Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.

    馬克亞當溫特勞布,海港研究夥伴公司。

  • Mark Weintraub - Analyst

    Mark Weintraub - Analyst

  • Thank you. Just a few, two quick clarifications. One just to be clear. The $70 you get that in containerboard in March, but you're talking about because it takes a while to flow through into boxes is why it would have a fairly de minimis impact in 1Q is that correct?

    謝謝。還有兩點需要快速澄清。澄清一下。3 月你收到的 70 美元箱板紙,但你說的是因為它需要一段時間才能裝箱,所以對第一季的影響微乎其微,是這樣嗎?

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • Correct, Mark yes.

    正確,Mark 表示同意。

  • Mark Weintraub - Analyst

    Mark Weintraub - Analyst

  • And just second clarification just to make sure I wasn't missing something, if there were two more shipping days, then you'd have more demand on your mill system, not less in the short-term.

    另外,為了確保我沒有遺漏什麼,我再確認一下:如果再多兩天出貨時間,那麼短期內你們的磨機系統需求量會增加,而不是減少。

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • Correct, yes.

    沒錯。

  • Mark Weintraub - Analyst

    Mark Weintraub - Analyst

  • Oh, okay, and then just to, just going back to cost last year you had, talked about $0.50 to $0.60 impact going from 4Q to 1Q and that you expected to get about half of it or even perhaps a bit more than that back in the second quarter because you know some of its seasonal et cetera. Could you share those types of metrics, this time around?

    哦,好的,那麼,回到去年的成本問題,您提到從第四季度到第一季度,成本影響為 0.50 到 0.60 美元,您預計在第二季度可以收回大約一半甚至更多,因為您知道,其中一些是季節性的等等。這次能否分享一下這些指標?

  • Kent Pflederer - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary

    Kent Pflederer - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary

  • Yes, we can Mark. It's about $0.45 to $0.50, 4Q to 1Q. We will get excluding Wallula a little under half of that back, but then Wallula, the cost improvements there start kicking in more so in the second quarter.

    是的,我們可以,馬克。大約是 0.45 美元到 0.50 美元,第四季到第一季。如果排除 Wallula,我們將收回不到一半的成本,但 Wallula 的成本改善將在第二季開始更明顯地發揮作用。

  • Mark Weintraub - Analyst

    Mark Weintraub - Analyst

  • Okay, super. And then, the -- can we also contrast how the containerboard box markets feel now relative to how they felt this time last year? I mean, obviously you went with price increases January 1 last year.

    好的,太棒了。那麼,我們能否比較一下目前箱板紙箱市場的狀況與去年同期相比如何?我的意思是,很明顯你們去年1月1日就提高了價格。

  • You got, at least in terms of what Pulp and Paper Week reflected, partial increases. How does it feel this time around versus the last two years?

    至少從《紙漿和造紙周刊》所反映的情況來看,價格出現了部分上漲。與前兩年相比,這次的感覺如何?

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • Now, I'm only going to -- I can only speak for PCA, so, let's just, I want to qualify that. How does it feel for us? I mean, it feels, it feels improved. In fact, much improved, I think, because there were still a lot of question marks in place a year ago. A new administration was going to take place, take hold.

    現在,我只能代表PCA發言,所以,我想先說明一下。我們感覺如何?我的意思是,感覺,感覺有所改善。事實上,我認為情況已經有了很大的改善,因為一年前還有很多未知數。新一屆政府即將上台執政。

  • A lot of things were up in the air. We dealt with, we were already dealing with potential tariff stuff and all these other things that were question marks hanging in the air.

    很多事情都懸而未決。我們已經處理了潛在的關稅問題以及所有其他懸而未決的問題。

  • Those are all pretty well cleared up at this point in time. And I think the most encouraging thing is what I just mentioned earlier relative to GDP and consumer sentiment, GDP being up over 4% last quarter, projected to be up over 5% this quarter.

    目前這些問題都基本解決了。我認為最令人鼓舞的事情是我剛才提到的關於 GDP 和消費者信心的方面,上個季度 GDP 成長超過 4%,預計本季將成長超過 5%。

  • Those are big numbers and make a big difference in terms of corrugated box demand and also, I think another great metric is that, for the first time in over four years, you've got wages that are now ahead of inflation.

    這些都是很大的數字,對瓦楞紙箱的需求產生了很大的影響。而且,我認為另一個重要的指標是,四年多來,薪資首次超過了通貨膨脹率。

  • And that will also improve the consumer sentiment going forward. They may not feel it immediately, but I think throughout the year, I think that's an important metric for our business.

    這將有助於提振未來的消費者信心。他們可能不會立即感受到,但我認為,從全年來看,這都是衡量我們業務的重要指標。

  • Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Great. Appreciate it. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gabe Hajde, Wells Fargo Securities.

    Gabe Hajde,富國證券。

  • Gabe Hajde - Analyst

    Gabe Hajde - Analyst

  • Mark, Tom, Kent, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Not to be combative here, but I'm curious. Like, I think GDP is projected to be up 3%, 4% in 2025, yet box demand has been pretty muted, sluggish, disappointing.

    馬克、湯姆、肯特,早安。感謝您回答這個問題。我不想挑釁,但我很好奇。例如,我認為 2025 年 GDP 預計會成長 3% 到 4%,但包裝盒的需求卻相當低迷、疲軟,令人失望。

  • There seems to be a clear inflection in your tone. I'm curious if you can, is this something specific to what PCA is doing, maybe the new Glendale box plant and internal initiatives, we heard from someone else this morning, more hunters on the field versus gatherers.

    你的語氣似乎有明顯的變化。我很好奇,如果你能告訴我,這是否是 PCA 正在做的某件事,例如新的 Glendale 紙箱廠和內部舉措?我們今天早上從其他人那裡聽說,更多的是實地狩獵者而不是採集者。

  • It just, there's obviously been a clear change in tone on the demand side, and then we've been dealing with this seemingly, jockeying around of orders and inventories at quarter end and then the first month of the new quarter, any visibility, any work you guys have done to try to discern. If that's going on here or again if this is more durable in terms of order patterns.

    顯然,需求方的基調發生了明顯變化,然後我們似乎一直在應對季度末和新季度第一個月訂單和庫存的爭奪,你們是否對此有任何了解,是否做了任何工作來試圖辨別。如果這種情況真的發生在這裡,或者說,就訂單模式而言,這種情況是否更加持久。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • Well, Gabe, I wish I could emphatically, give you great answers here, but all I can do is anecdotally talk about, the fact that we do have these discussions with our customers.

    蓋布,我很希望我能給你一些很好的答案,但我只能根據一些軼事來談談我們確實與客戶進行過這些討論的事實。

  • We are trying to find out what they're thinking and what they're doing because that's important to our ability to adapt our business accordingly.

    我們正在努力了解他們在想什麼、在做什麼,因為這對我們相應地調整業務至關重要。

  • But I can tell you there is a much more positive vibe across our entire customer base right now the starts and stops we experienced last year was quite unusual, quite frankly, because I think everybody was trying to figure out, what consumer demand really was and what and CapEx spending from companies and all these other sorts of things.

    但我可以告訴你,目前我們整個客戶群的情緒都積極得多。坦白說,我們去年經歷的起伏相當不尋常,因為我認為每個人都在試圖弄清楚消費者需求究竟是什麼,以及企業的資本支出等等。

  • What was really going to occur because start, stop, start, stop, I mean, we had I have customers that talked about having product that they were importing that they then add value to and then sell in the market that were stuck in ports in different places, waiting for tariffs to find out what the tariffs were going to be, all these other sorts of things.

    因為總是啟動、停止、啟動、停止,我們真正要面對的是什麼呢?我的意思是,我們有些客戶談到他們進口的產品,他們進行增值加工後再銷往市場,結果這些產品滯留在不同地方的港口,等待關稅確定,以及其他各種各樣的問題。

  • So it was an unusual year in my opinion, and a lot of that's now, cleared out, and I think that's helped the visibility going forward, and I think it's also helped the positivity going forward in terms of predictability. So that's about the best I can tell you.

    所以在我看來,這是不同尋常的一年,現在很多事情都已明朗化,我認為這有助於提高未來的可見性,也有助於提高未來的可預測性,從而帶來積極的影響。這就是我能告訴你的全部了。

  • Gabe Hajde - Analyst

    Gabe Hajde - Analyst

  • Alright, thank you, Tom. On the Greif acquisition, some of the feedback that we've gotten is that it feels. Maybe a little bit of slow out of the gate, and I know you guys had a plan going in, but maybe Mark, can you just talk about, let's say, an [impromptu] mill rebuild in 3.5 weeks, was that part of the plan and as you project forward and think about, the acquired assets you talked about running full for the rest of this year but for planned, maintenance outage.

    好的,謝謝你,湯姆。關於 Greif 的收購,我們收到的一些回饋是,感覺上。或許開局有點慢,我知道你們一開始就制定了計劃,但是馬克,你能談談,比如說,在 3.5 週內臨時重建工廠,這是否是計劃的一部分?展望未來,考慮到你們之前提到的收購資產,你們說過今年剩餘時間將滿負荷運轉,但計畫內的維護停機除外。

  • Do you expect that to be kind of reaching that, I guess EPS accretion level in the second quarter, first quarter, second half of this year, just any thoughts on that?

    您預計今年第二季、第一季或下半年每股收益成長會達到預期水準嗎?對此您有什麼看法?

  • Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • As far as the two mills, the Massillon Mill and the Riverville mill, we learned a lesson from Boise, and we also have a different organization in place now than we did 13 years ago, but we took advantage of the fact that we have the technology engineering group in-house and decided that after the, acquisition we would execute an immediate corrective action at the mills and go in in force and do what PCA does well, and that's provide operational expertise and so we took the couple of months in the fall, right through December at Massillon and essentially addressed all of the issues that normally might take a few years to address.

    至於馬西隆工廠和里弗維爾工廠這兩家工廠,我們從博伊西的事件中學到了教訓,而我們現在的組織架構也與13年前不同了。但我們充分利用了公司內部擁有技術工程團隊的優勢,決定在收購完成後立即對工廠採取糾正措施,全力以赴地發揮PCA的優勢,提供營運方面的專業知識。因此,我們在秋季的幾個月裡,一直到12月,在馬西隆工廠基本上解決了所有通常需要幾年時間才能解決的問題。

  • And so all of the normal maintenance matters are behind us now. We've got we've identified like the gas turbine opportunity at Riverville. We've identified some bigger long-term cost takeouts at Riverville, and then we'll continue just to instill the day to day normal practice at Massillon and Riverville in terms of operational expertise, but no, we accelerated that execution and took advantage of the opportunity this fall when we not only had the capability but we were going to manage inventory, to our needs and so we took advantage of that.

    因此,所有常規維護工​​作都已完成。我們已經發現了像Riverville的燃氣渦輪機專案這樣的機會。我們已經確定了Riverville的一些更大的長期成本削減方案,然後我們將繼續在Massillon和Riverville灌輸日常運營方面的正常做法,但是,我們加快了執行速度,並利用了今年秋季的機會,當時我們不僅有能力,而且還將根據我們的需求管理庫存,所以我們利用了這個機會。

  • Gabe Hajde - Analyst

    Gabe Hajde - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Kent Pflederer - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary

    Kent Pflederer - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary

  • And Gabe, on the Gabe, sorry, on the accretion piece we are forecasting it to be slightly accretive in the first quarter and then improving, as we get on and seasonality improves as well there so.

    蓋布,關於成長部分,我們預測第一季會略有成長,然後隨著時間的推移和季節性因素的改善,成長會越來越好。

  • Gabe Hajde - Analyst

    Gabe Hajde - Analyst

  • Thank you. One quick last one hopefully on CapEx, just I guess directionally, I think things are probably coming in maybe a little bit heavy in '26, and you talked about maybe only a smidge, of the [250] for the two gas turbines, the majority of that hitting in '27, just directionally would we expect things to be flattish next year on CapEx or down? I know we're just kicking off '26 but just any preliminary thoughts?

    謝謝。最後一個關於資本支出的問題,我想就方向而言,我認為 2026 年的支出可能會比較大,而您提到兩台燃氣渦輪機的 [250] 支出可能只有一小部分會在 2027 年到位,那麼就方向而言,我們預計明年的資本支出會持平還是下降?我知道我們才剛開始2026年,但大家有什麼初步想法嗎?

  • Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think we're in a range right now that, is in this low 800. The gas turbines will continue to keep the number on the higher end here. We're finishing up the big box plant in Ohio. We've got a couple of other projects that will finish up this year on the box plant side.

    我認為我們目前的區間在 800 左右。燃氣渦輪機將繼續使這裡的燃氣渦輪機數量保持在較高水平。我們在俄亥俄州的大型倉儲工廠即將完工。今年我們還有幾個箱式包裝廠的工程將完工。

  • We've got on a bigger piece of capital, you've got the Jackson, Alabama. A winder installation and improvements there. So there's a few discrete big pieces. Some of those will be wrapping up this year.

    我們獲得了一筆更大的資金,你們那裡有阿拉巴馬州的傑克遜市。安裝繞線機並進行改良。所以這裡包含幾個獨立的大部分。其中一些項目將於今年結束。

  • My goal, quite frankly, would be to see the number come down. There's a number of reasons for that. Part of it is just the psychological discipline that you want the organization to take a pause once in a while and step back and then look at what's been done over the last few years and then go truly put some optimization on all of the capital.

    坦白說,我的目標是看到這個數字下降。這其中有很多原因。部分原因在於心理上的自律,你希望組織不時停下來,退後一步,看看過去幾年所做的事情,然後真正地對所有資本進行一些優化。

  • So without giving you a number and quantifying that number, my goal would be to bring the number down below the $800 million level. We did that back in 2022 and 2023, and then we had the opportunities and we brought that number up into the $600 million level. Last year, $800 million with the bigger projects and, new box plants.

    所以,在不給出具體數字和量化指標的情況下,我的目標是將這個數字降到 8 億美元以下。我們在 2022 年和 2023 年就做到了這一點,然後我們抓住了機會,將這個數字提高到了 6 億美元。去年,大型專案和新建箱型工廠的總投資達 8 億美元。

  • So it really depends on the opportunities, but we are mindful of the discipline required to, spend the money wisely. So long answer to a question, but the goal would be to get it down, but we will take advantage of the opportunities.

    所以這真的取決於機會,但我們也意​​識到需要自律,才能明智地花錢。這個問題的答案很長,但我們的目標是盡快完成,我們會抓住一切機會。

  • Gabe Hajde - Analyst

    Gabe Hajde - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good luck.

    謝謝。祝你好運。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Anojja Shah, UBS.

    阿諾賈·沙阿,瑞銀集團。

  • Anojja Shah - Equity Analyst

    Anojja Shah - Equity Analyst

  • Hi, good morning, everyone.

    大家早安。

  • Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Morning.

    早晨。

  • Anojja Shah - Equity Analyst

    Anojja Shah - Equity Analyst

  • Morning, I just wanted to ask more specifically what changed in January. It does seem like there was a pretty sudden upturn in demand, and I know you talked about less uncertainty versus last year, but consumer confidence numbers are still kind of depressing and CPG earnings tone hasn't really changed.

    早安,我想更具體地問一月份發生了什麼變化。需求似乎確實出現了相當突然的回升,我知道您提到與去年相比不確定性有所降低,但消費者信心指數仍然令人沮喪,消費品行業的盈利狀況也沒有真正改變。

  • So do you think your customers are responding to maybe the promise of stimulus in the one big, beautiful bill and then after we get through tax refund season we can see some choppiness again in demand. What are you hearing from your customers on that?

    所以你認為你的客戶可能對那項龐大而美好的法案中蘊含的刺激承諾做出了反應,然後在退稅季結束後,我們可能會再次看到需求出現波動。你從客戶那裡了解到的回饋是什麼?

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • I think the upturn in demand is a couple of things. One is, obviously, as we've talked about from an inventory standpoint, they ran inventories incredibly low. So you can't continue to operate forever at these tremendously low inventory numbers. But I think there is a lot more positivity going forward.

    我認為需求回升的原因有二。顯而易見,正如我們從庫存角度討論的那樣,他們的庫存水準非常低。所以,你不可能永遠以如此低的庫存水準繼續運作下去。但我認為未來會有更多正面的方面。

  • With tax reform, a number of different things I mentioned, wages and some other things. Consumer sentiment, it depends on who, depends on what, survey you're looking at too. I mean, one day you get a survey that's positive, the next one it's a little more negative.

    稅制改革涉及我提到的許多方面,包括工資和其他一些方面。消費者情緒取決於你所查看的調查對象、調查內容以及調查類型。我的意思是,今天你收到的調查結果可能很積極,明天就可能變得消極一些。

  • I think the questions get slanted and a number of different things occur, but I think overall anytime you get more money in the pockets of the consumer.

    我認為問題會被扭曲,而且會發生很多不同的事情,但總的來說,我認為任何時候,只要消費者的口袋裡有更多的錢,情況就會好轉。

  • We're going to see more demand, and that ultimately reflects in the box business and I think from our customers' point of view, of course we try to align with, the very best and the ones that, are the tend to be the winners in their space, they tend to have a much more positive view point going forward and as I said, all the noise that took place in 2025, with all the different things that were going on with the new administration.

    我們將看到更大的需求,最終將反映在包裝盒業務上。我認為從我們客戶的角度來看,我們當然會努力與業內最優秀、最成功的企業合作,這些企業往往是各自領域的贏家,他們對未來往往持有更積極的看法。正如我所說,2025 年發生了一系列混亂,新政府上任後也出現了各種各樣的事情。

  • I think a lot of that, the air is cleared on that, and I think people can see demand improving and count on it a little bit better than they did in the past.

    我認為許多問題都已澄清,人們可以看到需求正在改善,並且比過去更有信心應對需求。

  • Anojja Shah - Equity Analyst

    Anojja Shah - Equity Analyst

  • Yeah, okay, it's good to hear. Let's hope you're right, and then for my second question, did I miss the cash tax expectation for 2026? And could you get a meaningful step down year over year this year because I don't know, maybe, the immediate depreciation expensing provisions on Glendale or anything else.

    好的,聽到這個消息很高興。希望你是對的。那麼我的第二個問題是,我是否錯過了 2026 年的現金稅收預期?今年能否實現同比顯著下降,因為我不知道,也許格倫代爾的立即折舊費用化條款或其他任何因素。

  • Kent Pflederer - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary

    Kent Pflederer - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary

  • No, we didn't provide what the cash tax forecast would be for the year. It'll be higher though than we paid out in '25. The Greif acquisition and being able to take some of the immediate depreciation on those assets was a big help.

    不,我們沒有提供本年度的現金稅預測。不過,這筆費用會比我們2025年支付的還要高。收購 Greif 公司並能夠立即承擔這些資產的部分折舊費用,這對我們幫助很大。

  • So, but we'll be approaching and maybe a little more normal levels, but we will still get some benefit from the bonus depreciation provisions.

    所以,我們會逐漸接近甚至達到更正常的水平,但我們仍然會從額外折舊條款中獲得一些好處。

  • Anojja Shah - Equity Analyst

    Anojja Shah - Equity Analyst

  • All right, sounds good I'll turn it over thank you.

    好的,沒問題,我這就翻過來,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

    安東尼佩蒂納裡,花旗銀行。

  • Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

    Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

  • Good morning, for the price increase for containerboard and boxes, should we expect the timing and implementation of the price hike for the kind of the Greif portion of the business to be pretty much identical to the legacy business, or do they, are there any sort of existing contracts or terms that might make it a little bit different or longer.

    早安,關於箱板紙和紙箱的價格上漲,我們是否可以預期 Greif 業務部分的價格上漲時間和實施方式與傳統業務基本相同,還是說存在任何現有的合約或條款可能會導致情況略有不同或時間更長?

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • We would expect the acquisition plants to roll out the same as PCA.

    我們預計收購工廠的推出方式將與PCA相同。

  • Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

    Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

  • Got it. And I mean there were some pretty large mill closures, in the industry last year and obviously you have Wallula. Understand that you don't, sell into the open market as much as others.

    知道了。我的意思是,去年業內有一些規模相當大的工廠倒閉,顯然還有瓦盧拉工廠。要知道,你不需要像其他人一樣在公開市場上銷售產品。

  • Can you just talk about sort of availability of Board in the open market from a PCA perspective and just sort of what the market feels like given some pretty major, supply actions that happened at the end of last year.

    您能否從 PCA 的角度談談公開市場上板材的供應情況,以及考慮到去年底發生的一些重大供應變動,目前的市場狀況如何?

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • Yeah, all I can tell you is from a PCA perspective we're going to have to run the mills full out. Things are going to be tight. We're not going to have additional Board, that we're going to be able to sell into the open market and, that's all I can comment on you can draw other conclusions from your comments relative to the industry.

    是的,從PCA的角度來看,我只能告訴你,我們必須全力運作工廠。情況會很緊張。我們不會再增設董事會成員,也不會再向公開市場出售董事會成員,關於這一點,我只能說這麼多,你們可以從你們的評論中得出與行業相關的其他結論。

  • Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

    Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

  • Got it. Maybe just one last one in terms of the CapEx for '26 [840 to 870]. I think you said the energy projects would be a small sliver of that. I'm just wondering if you can quantify that and then if there are any other major projects maybe on the box plant level that we should think about for '26 so that you point out.

    知道了。或許 2026 年的資本支出只需再增加一個 [840 至 870]。我想你說過,能源專案只佔其中的一小部分。我只是想知道您是否可以量化這一點,以及在包裝廠層面上是否還有其他我們應該考慮的2026年重大項目,以便您指出。

  • Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, we're again, we're finishing up the detailed engineering right now and getting ready to get approval, so there'll be, a small amount of if we're spending $250 million, you might spend $50 million this year on ordering equipment and getting steel, different things ordered, but, the bigger pieces of capital this year of the 800 plus are coming from the completion of the new Ohio box plant.

    是的,我們現在正在完成詳細的工程設計,準備獲得批准。所以,如果我們要花費 2.5 億美元,那麼今年可能會花費 5,000 萬美元用於訂購設備和鋼材等各種東西。但是,今年 8 億美元以上的較大資金將來自俄亥俄州新箱體工廠的竣工。

  • The big project down at Jackson, the Jackson Winder project and all of the expansion down at Jackson was over $100 million a project over a two-year period. And then we've got a couple of other big projects that the Counce number two machine.

    傑克遜鎮的大項目,傑克遜溫德項目以及傑克遜鎮的所有擴建項目,每個項目在兩年內耗資超過 1 億美元。然後我們還有幾個其他的大項目,都是由 Counce 二號機器負責的。

  • It's a couple of phases of work, but the first phase begins this March, and so we're putting in a considerable amount of effort to upgrade the number two paper machine.

    這項工作分幾個階段進行,但第一階段從今年三月開始,因此我們正在投入大量精力升級二號造紙機。

  • And then we're finishing up a project in Syracuse, New York, and so there's a couple of other big box plant upgrade projects that are finishing up and then the rest is just the numerous normal projects that we always bring on the on the converting side, new converting pieces of equipment that are being installed, corrugators, converting lines, upgrades.

    然後,我們正在紐約州錫拉丘茲完成一個項目,還有幾個大型包裝廠升級項目也即將完成,剩下的就是我們在加工方面經常承接的眾多常規項目,例如安裝新的加工設備、瓦楞紙板機、加工生產線和升級改造。

  • So it's spread out evenly, but that's the good news that we're, continuing to invest and grow with the customers as they need us to.

    所以分配比較均勻,但好消息是我們將繼續根據客戶的需求進行投資和發展。

  • Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

    Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

  • Okay, that, that's very helpful. I'll turn it.

    好的,這很有幫助。我來轉動它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Philip Ng, Jefferies.

    Philip Ng,傑富瑞集團。

  • Philip Ng - Analyst

    Philip Ng - Analyst

  • Hey guys, question for Tom. The pickup in orders in January, how much would you attribute that being from that destock that you saw reversing, is that uptick pretty broad based, isolated few end markets? When I look at the spread between bookings and billings, it's quite large, larger than normal from what I can tell. I think that's a bullish indicator, but just give us a little more color on how we kind of interpret some of these things.

    各位,問湯姆一個問題。1月訂單量的回升,您認為這在多大程度上是由於庫存下降導致的逆轉造成的?這種成長是相當普遍的,還是僅限於少數終端市場?當我查看預訂量和帳單金額之間的差距時,發現差距相當大,比我所見的正常情況要大。我認為這是一個看漲訊號,但請您再詳細解釋我們如何解讀這些訊號。

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • Okay, I think, Phil, it's very difficult to, separate out anything relative to inventory restocking. There's some of that. I don't think that's the majority of it by any stretch. I think that our customers are preparing for more demand.

    好吧,菲爾,我覺得很難把任何與庫存補貨相關的內容單獨拿出來。確實有一些這樣的情況。我覺得這絕對不是絕大多數。我認為我們的客戶正在為更大的需求做準備。

  • They've got more demand. That's what we're hearing. I think that the, right now being late in the month, we've got a lot more visibility as an example into February, and February remains very strong. So it's kind of following onto on to January, which helps the bullishness of the forecast.

    他們的需求量更大。我們聽到的就是這樣。我認為,現在已經是月底了,我們對二月的情況有了更清晰的了解,而二月份的市場依然非常強勁。所以,這個趨勢延續到了1月份,這有助於增強預測的樂觀情緒。

  • And, in general, it's just a much more positive feeling across the board. And as I mentioned earlier, we've got some of those segments that were real laggards last year that are beginning to show some new life and come back to what I consider to be, a little more normal demand that we've seen in the past.

    總的來說,整體氛圍更加積極向上。正如我之前提到的,去年一些發展落後的領域開始復甦,並逐漸恢復到我認為比過去更正常的需求水準。

  • And I think as housing, begins to begin to come forward again, I think with mortgage rates now having dropped under 6%. That's a real catalyst for, new home building and remodeling, et cetera. So, that'll be a big benefit for us in that sector.

    我認為隨著房屋市場開始再次復甦,尤其是抵押貸款利率已經降至 6% 以下。這會大大促進新建房屋、房屋改建等活動。所以,這對我們這個行業來說將是一個巨大的優勢。

  • Philip Ng - Analyst

    Philip Ng - Analyst

  • Got you. And then, pretty encouraging, all that great stuff, and then I think your commentaries you expect be running full out all this year, is that a function of demand getting. Much better this year. I mean, certainly the Wallula piece is part of it, but predicated on that like what kind of box shipments should we assume for you to be running full out.

    抓到你了。然後,相當令人鼓舞的是,所有這些好東西,然後我認為你預計今年會全力以赴的評論,這是否取決於需求的增長。今年好多了。我的意思是,Wallula 肯定是其中的一部分,但前提是,我們應該假設你們全力運轉需要什麼樣的箱子出貨量。

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • Well, it's, we're definitely, we're definitely going to be up, and I think one of the things that we're really focused on this year, although the capital intensity in this business is tremendous, as alluded to in these numbers, that we have to spend capital every year, to get the job done, I think, as Mark mentioned earlier, we are going to be really focused on Maximizing the returns on the capital that we've put in place.

    嗯,我們肯定會,肯定會增長,而且我認為我們今年真正關注的事情之一,雖然正如這些數字所暗示的那樣,這個行業的資本密集度非常高,我們每年都必須投入資本來完成工作,但我認為,正如馬克之前提到的,我們將真正專注於最大限度地提高我們已投入資本的回報。

  • And this is going to be a great year for us to really test that and, so we're very well positioned for significant growth in the business. And, but again, you don't build, for some exorbitant amount of growth.

    今年對我們來說將是檢驗這一點的絕佳年份,因此我們已做好充分準備,迎接業務的顯著成長。但是,再說一遍,你不會為了追求過高的成長而建造。

  • Because that never happens in this business. So, we're well positioned for the normal growth plus a little is where we're really positioned for. So I think we'll be in good shape and of course, then we've got the ability to spend more capital if needed, if those if those opportunities present themselves.

    因為這種事在這個行業根本不可能發生。所以,我們已經做好了充分準備,迎接正常的成長,再加上一點額外的成長,這才是我們真正的目標。所以我認為我們會處於良好的狀態,當然,如果需要的話,如果機會出現,我們也有能力投入更多資金。

  • Philip Ng - Analyst

    Philip Ng - Analyst

  • Okay, Tom, I don't want to pin you the number, but it sounds like you're expecting '26 box demand for the broader industry to be more normalized this year and then do PCA kind of stuff, kind of grow.

    好的,湯姆,我不想給你設定具體數字,但聽起來你預計今年整個行業的 26 箱需求會更加正常化,然後進行 PCA 之類的活動,實現增長。

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • No, what I'm saying is that the, I think the demand is going to definitely be up this year and we, and we at PCA will normally do in terms of how we perform versus the total demand.

    不,我的意思是,我認為今年的需求肯定會上升,而我們PCA通常會根據我們的業績與總需求之間的關係來做出相應的調整。

  • Philip Ng - Analyst

    Philip Ng - Analyst

  • Okay, makes sense. And then, a question for Kent, it was helpful color. You said you expect the Greif deal to be, modestly accretive in 1Q. I think last quarter you gave us a framework in terms of LTM EBITDA in that [240] range and maybe $20 million of run rate synergies by 2Q, appreciating things move around, is that still a good way to think about it? Or perhaps some of that gets pushed out a little bit in terms of, achieving those targets.

    好的,有道理。然後,問肯特一個問題,顏色很有幫助。你曾表示,你預計 Greif 的交易將在第一季帶來適度的獲利成長。我認為上個季度您為我們提供了一個框架,即 LTM EBITDA 在 [240] 範圍內,並且到第二季度可能實現 2000 萬美元的運行協同效應,考慮到情況可能會發生變化,這種思考方式現在仍然適用嗎?或者說,為了實現這些目標,其中一些事情可能會被稍微推遲一下。

  • Kent Pflederer - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary

    Kent Pflederer - Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary

  • No, that's a very good way to think about it. That's where we still are, and I think we'll be in a better position to talk about some, synergy opportunities in the next couple of calls going forward now that we're able to operate this thing at full capacity.

    不,這是一個很好的思考方式。我們目前仍處於這個階段,我認為,既然我們現在能夠滿載運轉,那麼在接下來的幾次電話會議中,我們將更有能力討論一些協同效應的機會。

  • Philip Ng - Analyst

    Philip Ng - Analyst

  • Okay, super, thank you. Appreciate it.

    好的,太好了,謝謝。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Charlie Muir-Sands, BMP Paribas.

    Charlie Muir-Sands,BMP Paribas。

  • Charlie Muir-Sands - Analyst

    Charlie Muir-Sands - Analyst

  • Hey, morning guys. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Just a couple of follow-ups, you've obviously outlined a big list of all the projects that are the focus of CapEx at the moment.

    嘿,各位早安。非常感謝您回答我的問題。還有幾個後續問題,您顯然列出了目前資本支出重點的所有項目清單。

  • If we think ahead to 12 months from today, given that you're going to be running, you said all out through, throughout this year you anticipate, how much more capacity do you think you'll have in a 12 months' time from today versus now, and how are you thinking about any kind of constraints or things you might need to do in order to get ahead of that?

    如果我們展望未來 12 個月,考慮到您將全力以赴地運營,並且您預計今年全年都會如此,您認為 12 個月後您的產能會比現在高多少?您認為為了實現這一目標,您可能需要採取哪些限製或措施?

  • And then I've got one follow-up question. Thanks.

    我還有一個後續問題。謝謝。

  • Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • The short answer to that is I'll let you know then what we're planning to do going forward. Nothing's changed, in terms of how PCA goes about our business to look at supplying containerboard into the converting side of the business. Tom just said it. We never get too far ahead of ourselves.

    簡而言之,到時候我會告訴你我們接下來的計畫。PCA 的業務運作方式沒有任何改變,我們仍然按照以往的方式向加工企業供應箱板紙。湯姆剛才就這麼說了。我們從不好高騖遠。

  • Part of the impetus for the Greif acquisition is that we had two mills that we looked at that say we're producing in that 600,000 tons run rate a year. We looked at that, we know how to improve the operations, and we said we'll probably get over a couple year period of time depending on how much capital we want to spend, probably another 200,000 tons out of the two-mill system and so that provides the growth runway for the next couple of years for us.

    收購 Greif 的部分原因是,我們檢視了兩家工廠,它們的年產量都達到了 60 萬噸。我們研究過這個問題,我們知道如何改進運營,我們說,根據我們想投入多少資金,我們可能會在幾年內從雙軋機系統中再增加 20 萬噸產量,這將為我們未來幾年的增長提供動力。

  • So that's how I'm looking at it, but it's going to be tight. We're going to have to run very well as we normally do, run very efficiently, but never forget we're always looking out on the horizon of where the next containerboard capacity will come from in PCA, and we've got different levers to pull and different ways to get there. But that's one of the high class problems that we face all the time. Tom, do you want to add that?

    我就是這麼看的,但競爭會很激烈。我們必須像往常一樣高效運轉,但永遠不要忘記,我們始終在關注PCA的下一個箱板紙產能來源,我們有不同的手段和不同的方法來實現這一目標。但這是我們一直面臨的上流社會問題之一。湯姆,你想補充一點嗎?

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • No, nothing really more to add other than, we're we'll grow with our with our customers. That's how we, that's how we operate.

    不,沒什麼要補充的了,我們只想說,我們將與我們的客戶一起成長。我們就是這樣,我們就是這樣運作的。

  • Charlie Muir-Sands - Analyst

    Charlie Muir-Sands - Analyst

  • Thank you, and just to follow-up with you quoted your bookings and billings numbers, so far, can you just clarify is that a fully legacy PCA number or is that line getting blurred now, have you sort of moved customers from Greif operations into PCA or vice versa, or is that an all in number?

    謝謝。另外,關於您提到的預訂和帳單數字,您能否澄清一下,這些數字是完全來自先前的 PCA 系統,還是現在兩者之間的界線已經模糊了?您是否已經將一些客戶從 Greif 營運轉移到 PCA,或者反過來,還是說這是一個全部的數字?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

    Thomas Hassfurther - Executive Vice President - Corrugated Products

  • Okay, that's, I, I'm giving you essentially the legacy PCA number, but I also, the visibility I do have into our Greif business, it mirrors -- doesn't quite mirror that, but it's pretty close to that.

    好的,我基本上是給你傳統的PCA數據,但我對我們Greif業務的了解也與此類似——雖然不完全一樣,但非常接近。

  • Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you. Are there any other questions, Jamie?

    謝謝。傑米,還有其他問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mr. Kowlzan, at this time there are no more questions. Do you have any closing comments?

    科爾贊先生,目前沒有其他問題了。您還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Mark Kowlzan - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, again, I want to thank everybody for joining us today and also, I just want to put out a big thanks to the folks at the Riverville mill and Counce mill in particular. A number of the employees and managers spent three or four days living at the mill during the storm and protecting the assets and running the mill and safeguarding things, so from up here in Lake Forest to the facilities, thank you.

    是的,再次感謝今天到場的各位,也特別要感謝Riverville磨坊和Counce磨坊的各位工作人員。暴風雨期間,許多員工和管理階層在工廠住了三、四天,保護資產,維持工廠運轉,並保障設施安全。因此,從萊克福里斯特到工廠,我向你們表示感謝。

  • And then all the box plants that are down and people that have been without power, again, it's been a struggle, but things are coming back, so we appreciate everybody's effort and the dedication that we have from our PCA employees and look forward to talking with everybody on the next call in April.

    還有那些停電的電廠和那些斷電的人們,這確實很艱難,但一切都在恢復正常,所以我們感謝大家的努力和我們PCA員工的奉獻精神,並期待在四月份的下次電話會議上與大家交流。

  • Thank you. Have a good day.

    謝謝。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, with that we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議和演示就到此結束。非常感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。