Polaris Inc (PII) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon or good morning and welcome to the Polaris Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

下午好或早上好，歡迎來到 Polaris 2020 年第二季度收益電話會議和網絡直播。（操作員說明）請注意正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Richard Edwards, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管理查德愛德華茲。請繼續。

Thank you, Andra, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our 2020 second quarter earnings call. A slide presentation is accessible at our website at ir.polaris.com, which has additional information for this morning's call.

謝謝你，安德拉，大家早上好。感謝您加入我們的 2020 年第二季度財報電話會議。幻燈片演示可在我們的網站 ir.polaris.com 上訪問，其中包含有關今天上午電話會議的更多信息。

Scott Wine, our Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Speetzen, our Chief Financial Officer, have remarks summarizing the quarter, and then we'll take some questions. During the call, we will be discussing various topics, which should be considered forward-looking for the purposes of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results could differ materially from those projections in the forward-looking statements. You can refer to our 2019 10-K for additional details regarding these risks and uncertainties.

我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Scott Wine；我們的首席財務官 Mike Speetzen 對本季度進行了總結，然後我們將回答一些問題。在電話會議期間，我們將討論各種主題，這些主題對於 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》而言應被視為具有前瞻性。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測存在重大差異。您可以參考我們的 2019 年 10-K，了解有關這些風險和不確定性的更多詳細信息。

All references to the second quarter 2020 actual results are reported on an adjusted non-GAAP basis unless otherwise noted. Please refer to our Reg G reconciliation schedules at the end of this presentation for the GAAP to non-GAAP adjustments.

除非另有說明，否則所有對 2020 年第二季度實際結果的引用均按調整後的非 GAAP 基礎報告。請參閱本演示文稿末尾的 Reg G 調節表，了解 GAAP 到非 GAAP 的調整。

Now I'll turn it over to our CEO, Scott Wine. Scott?

現在我將把它交給我們的首席執行官 Scott Wine。斯科特？

Thank you, Richard. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Last quarter, I spoke about how thankful I was for the Polaris team's hard work and how confident I was they had positioned us to navigate and win throughout the pandemic. With the surge in demand for Off-Road Vehicles, Motorcycles, and more recently Pontoon Boats, the team is demonstrating impressive agility and resourcefulness as they support our dealers and deliver innovative products and solutions to our customers.

謝謝你，理查德。早上好，感謝您加入我們。上個季度，我談到了我是多麼感謝 Polaris 團隊的辛勤工作，以及我是多麼有信心他們讓我們能夠在整個大流行期間導航並贏得勝利。隨著對越野車、摩托車和最近的浮橋船的需求激增，該團隊在支持我們的經銷商並為我們的客戶提供創新產品和解決方案時展示了令人印象深刻的敏捷性和足智多謀。

We will talk about outperforming expectations this morning, but admittedly, the outlook we provided in April was off by a country mile. The economic lockdown of our dealers and suppliers, along with concern for the global economy amidst the pandemic led us to model negative retail sales for the second quarter and the year.

今天早上我們將討論超出預期的問題，但誠然，我們在 4 月份提供的前景相去甚遠。我們的經銷商和供應商的經濟封鎖，以及在大流行期間對全球經濟的擔憂，導致我們對第二季度和全年的零售額進行了建模。

Reality has been much different as many more people sought out the family enjoyment, excitement, and utility of our vehicles, and when coupled with more free time and fewer alternative ways to spend money, this provided a near-perfect backdrop for our powersports dealers. Our priorities remain consistent since the onset of COVID-19.

現實已經大不相同，因為越來越多的人尋求我們車輛的家庭樂趣、興奮和實用性，再加上更多的空閒時間和更少的其他花錢方式，這為我們的動力運動經銷商提供了近乎完美的背景。自 COVID-19 爆發以來，我們的優先事項始終如一。

First, implementing protocols and guidelines to keep our employees safe, then working across our global supply chain and factoring that work to ensure the viability of Polaris, winning for our dealers and customers, and ultimately doing good for our shareholders. Even though I'm known as a tough grader, the team earned extremely high marks in each of these fundamental considerations. The combination of record off-road vehicle retail, COVID-19 related temporary plant shutdowns and our erroneous forecast for lower demand brought dealer inventory down below target levels, but our factories are performing well as they ramp up to meet demand and refill the channel.

首先，實施協議和指南以確保我們員工的安全，然後在我們的全球供應鏈中開展工作，並考慮確保 Polaris 的生存能力，為我們的經銷商和客戶贏得勝利，並最終為我們的股東謀福利。儘管我被認為是一個嚴格的評分者，但團隊在這些基本考慮因素中的每一個方面都獲得了極高的分數。創紀錄的越野車零售、與 COVID-19 相關的臨時工廠關閉以及我們對需求下降的錯誤預測相結合，使經銷商庫存低於目標水平，但我們的工廠在增加以滿足需求和補充渠道方面表現良好。

Liquidity is not a concern currently, but the cash war room exercises that Mike Speetzen and his team have greatly enhanced our cash outlook and management ability. While noncash, we did take a $379 million impairment charge for our aftermarket business, which reflects the greater impact TAP has faced from COVID-19 and tariffs.

目前流動性不是問題，但 Mike Speetzen 和他的團隊的現金作戰室演習大大提高了我們的現金前景和管理能力。雖然非現金，但我們確實為我們的售後市場業務計提了 3.79 億美元的減值費用，這反映出 TAP 面臨 COVID-19 和關稅的更大影響。

This is accelerating our strategy to focus predominantly on TAP's retail channels, which I will cover shortly.

這正在加速我們主要關注 TAP 零售渠道的戰略，我將在稍後介紹這一點。

Second quarter North American retail sales were up 57% behind broad-based demand across our dealer network.

第二季度北美零售額增長了 57%，落後於我們經銷商網絡的廣泛需求。

A key fact underlying this top-line number is that nearly 75% of our off-road vehicle and motorcycle buyers in Q2 were new to Polaris. While we love our current customers, we know that new customers are more likely to invite their friends to powersports, spend on apparel and accessories, and buy another Polaris vehicle. The solid demand for 4-seat or crew side-by-side vehicles reinforces the family dynamic behind this surge, while our PG&A business experienced its largest ever quarterly sales confirms our large and growing installed base still has a strong desire to accessorize their vehicles.

這一頂線數字背後的一個關鍵事實是，我們在第二季度將近 75% 的越野車和摩托車買家是 Polaris 的新手。雖然我們熱愛現有客戶，但我們知道新客戶更有可能邀請他們的朋友參加動力運動、購買服裝和配飾併購買另一輛 Polaris 汽車。對 4 座或乘員並排車輛的強勁需求加強了這一激增背後的家庭動力，而我們的 PG&A 業務經歷了有史以來最大的季度銷售額，這證實了我們龐大且不斷增長的安裝基數仍然強烈希望為他們的車輛配備配件。

Both Indian and Slingshot performed well in the quarter with the new Challenger and Slingshot AutoDrive leading notable market share gains. Boats did not turn positive until June, but the subsequent recovery was quite robust.

Indian 和 Slingshot 在本季度均表現出色，新的 Challenger 和 Slingshot AutoDrive 引領市場份額顯著增長。船隻直到 6 月才轉為正面，但隨後的複蘇相當強勁。

Despite our impressive retail performance in off-road vehicles, our market share did decline in the quarter. This is never an acceptable outcome and I'm extremely confident that Steve Menneto and his team are driving the necessary actions and improvements to reestablish market share gains in the quarters ahead.

儘管我們在越野車方面的零售業績令人印象深刻，但我們的市場份額在本季度確實有所下降。這絕不是一個可以接受的結果，我非常有信心史蒂夫門內托和他的團隊正在推動必要的行動和改進，以在未來幾個季度重新獲得市場份額。

I do not want to make any excuses, but this simple fact helps put things into perspective. In the months of May and June, the growth of our side-by-side business outpaced any of our competitors' total sales over the same period. Kind of cool.

我不想找任何藉口，但這個簡單的事實有助於正確看待事情。在 5 月和 6 月，我們並行業務的增長超過了同期任何競爭對手的總銷售額。有點酷。

Dealer inventory declined precipitously in off-road vehicles and slightly in motorcycles for a net decrease of 47%. We did bring our plant network down for approximately 10 days, including Monterrey, which was down considerably longer. But our significant U.S. footprint was an asset that enabled us to respond quickly once we came back online. With factories rapidly ramping to full production, we expect to make progress towards replenishing dealer inventory throughout the second half. Although year-end levels are likely to be down substantially.

越野車的經銷商庫存急劇下降，摩托車的庫存略有下降，淨下降 47%。我們確實使我們的工廠網絡關閉了大約 10 天，包括蒙特雷，它的關閉時間要長得多。但我們在美國的重要足跡是一項資產，使我們能夠在重新上線後迅速做出反應。隨著工廠迅速全面投產，我們預計下半年將在補充經銷商庫存方面取得進展。儘管年底水平可能會大幅下降。

As noted, our growth is largely being driven by new customers who are increasingly gender, ethnic, and age diverse. Changing market dynamics are certainly contributing to this shift, but the customer engagement and demographic outreach efforts that Pam Kermisch and her team are leading give me confidence that we can sustain it. Expanding the market is uniquely beneficial to the market share leader, and we will continue to invest in initiatives to keep this trend going.

如前所述，我們的增長主要是由新客戶推動的，這些客戶的性別、種族和年齡越來越多樣化。不斷變化的市場動態無疑促成了這種轉變，但 Pam Kermisch 和她的團隊領導的客戶參與和人口外展工作讓我相信我們能夠維持這種轉變。擴大市場對市場份額領先者來說是獨一無二的，我們將繼續投資以保持這一趨勢。

The aftermarket impairment charge we took primarily related to TAP did not cause us to change strategies, but it did accelerate the work Craig Scanlon and his team are doing to transition to a much more retail-focused business model. While we still see benefits in the integrated multichannel approach we've been operating, we recognized it does not require TAP's entire existing wholesale business, which has been a consistent drag on profitability.

我們承擔的主要與 TAP 相關的售後市場減值費用並未導致我們改變戰略，但它確實加速了 Craig Scanlon 和他的團隊正在做的工作，以過渡到更加以零售為中心的商業模式。雖然我們仍然看到我們一直在運營的集成多渠道方法的好處，但我們認識到它不需要 TAP 的整個現有批發業務，這一直拖累盈利能力。

Our distinct Ford MVP advantages in business-to-consumer retail with both our national brick-and-mortar footprint and our significant online presence performing well. With a more retail-focused business, we expect to drive consistent growth and better leverage our investments and our exclusive TAP brand offerings.

我們獨特的福特 MVP 在企業對消費者零售方面具有優勢，我們在全國的實體足跡和我們重要的在線業務都表現良好。通過更加專注於零售的業務，我們希望推動持續增長並更好地利用我們的投資和我們獨家的 TAP 品牌產品。

California store closings and tariffs remain near-term headwinds, but the path to improving profitability is clear. I will now turn it over to our Chief Financial Officer, Mike Speetzen, who'll update you on our financial results and plans.

加州商店關閉和關稅仍然是近期的不利因素，但提高盈利能力的途徑是明確的。我現在將把它交給我們的首席財務官 Mike Speetzen，他會向您介紹我們的最新財務業績和計劃。

Thanks, Scott. Good morning. You'll recall during our first quarter call, my comments were centered around maintaining healthy liquidity profile, given the economic uncertainty as a result of the pandemic. As Scott indicated, given the tremendous rebound in retail sales during the quarter, and the extremely hard work of the Polaris team, I'm pleased to report that our second quarter results significantly outperformed our previous expectations. Our liquidity profile has returned to normal levels, and our full year earnings expectations have rebounded to near pre-COVID levels.

謝謝，斯科特。早上好。你會記得在我們第一季度的電話會議上，鑑於大流行導致的經濟不確定性，我的評論主要圍繞保持健康的流動性狀況。正如 Scott 所指出的那樣，鑑於本季度零售額的巨大反彈以及 Polaris 團隊的辛勤工作，我很高興地報告我們第二季度的業績大大超出了我們之前的預期。我們的流動性狀況已恢復到正常水平，我們的全年盈利預期已反彈至接近 COVID 前的水平。

I'll provide additional detail on our view for the remainder of the year. But first, some comments on our second quarter results.

我將提供更多關於我們對今年剩餘時間的看法的詳細信息。但首先，對我們第二季度的業績發表一些評論。

For the second quarter, sales were down 15% versus the prior year. All segments reported lower sales driven by our plants temporarily suspending production for up to 1.5 months due to the COVID pandemic. Despite many of our plants producing at or above pre-COVID-19 levels, by the end of the quarter, we were not able to offset the lost production during the shutdown period.

第二季度，銷售額比去年同期下降了 15%。由於 COVID 大流行，我們的工廠暫停生產長達 1.5 個月，導致所有部門的銷售額均有所下降。儘管我們的許多工廠的產量都達到或高於 COVID-19 之前的水平，但到本季度末，我們無法抵消停產期間的產量損失。

Second quarter earnings per share on a GAAP basis was a loss of $235 million or $3.82 per diluted share, which included a noncash pretax goodwill and intangible impairment charge of $379 million. Last year's second quarter income was $88 million or $1.42 per diluted share. Adjusted earnings per share was $1.30, down from the prior year's second quarter adjusted earnings of $1.73 per share, but up significantly from previous expectations given strong retail sales, enabling greater shipments. This, coupled with strong cost management drove the overperformance in the quarter.

按 GAAP 計算，第二季度每股收益為虧損 2.35 億美元或每股攤薄收益 3.82 美元，其中包括非現金稅前商譽和 3.79 億美元的無形減值費用。去年第二季度的收入為 8800 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 1.42 美元。調整後每股收益為 1.30 美元，低於去年第二季度調整後每股收益 1.73 美元，但由於零售銷售強勁，出貨量增加，因此大大高於此前預期。這一點，再加上強大的成本管理，推動了本季度的超常表現。

The $370 million noncash impairment charge is related to our aftermarket segment, primarily Transamerican Auto Parts. Given the deterioration in expected short and midterm economic performance of TAP due to COVID-19, the company reevaluated the goodwill and intangibles in the aftermarket reporting unit and concluded that the fair value of the reporting unit and certain TAP trade names were less than their respective carrying values, resulting in noncash, goodwill and intangible impairment charges.

3.7 億美元的非現金減值費用與我們的售後市場部門有關，主要是 Transamerican Auto Parts。鑑於 COVID-19 導致 TAP 的預期短期和中期經濟表現惡化，公司重新評估了售後市場報告單位的商譽和無形資產，並得出結論，報告單位和某些 TAP 商品名稱的公允價值低於其各自的公允價值賬面價值，導致非現金、商譽和無形資產減值費用。

As Scott indicated, we believe in the fundamental long-term attractiveness of the TAP business as we continue to take corrective actions to navigate the current economic environment and strengthen the business for the long-term.

正如 Scott 所指出的，我們相信 TAP 業務具有根本的長期吸引力，因為我們將繼續採取糾正措施來駕馭當前的經濟環境並加強業務的長期發展。

Adjusted gross margins were down 190 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to COVID-related under-absorption at our factories from the COVID-19 driven temporary production suspension. We also incurred costs to ensure the health and safety of our employees at all facilities. We did recognize a modest level of favorability in tariffs in the quarter given the lower volumes and continued progress on exemptions as well as refunds of prior tariffs paid.

調整後的毛利率同比下降 190 個基點，這主要是由於 COVID-19 導致的臨時停產導致我們工廠的 COVID 相關吸收不足。我們還承擔了確保所有設施員工健康和安全的費用。考慮到較低的數量和豁免的持續進展以及先前支付的關稅的退款，我們確實認識到本季度關稅的適度優惠。

Operating expenses, excluding the impairment charge, which we've separately categorized, were down 15% in the quarter as we canceled or postponed all nonessential expenditures and undertook employee-related cost actions as a result of the pandemic driven economic uncertainty.

由於大流行導致的經濟不確定性，我們取消或推遲了所有非必要支出並採取了與員工相關的成本行動，因此我們單獨分類的運營費用（不包括我們單獨分類的減值費用）在本季度下降了 15%。

Turning to our segment performance. All segments experienced lower sales during the quarter as expected, given the reduced shipments as the pandemic began to take hold early in the quarter.

轉向我們的細分市場表現。正如預期的那樣，由於大流行病在本季度初開始流行導致出貨量減少，所有部門在本季度的銷售額都出現了下降。

Moving now to our balance sheet and liquidity profile for the quarter. Operating cash flow was $310 million for the 6 months ended June 30, up 53% from the same period last year and up significantly from Q1 driven by lower working capital requirements. Since our Q1 call, our cash position has improved significantly. We initiated a cash war room approach in Q2 that enabled the company to more effectively and efficiently manage cash flow, which not only benefited Q2 but through process enhancements will benefit the ongoing performance of the company.

現在轉到我們本季度的資產負債表和流動性概況。截至 6 月 30 日的 6 個月，運營現金流為 3.1 億美元，比去年同期增長 53%，並且由於較低的營運資金需求，較第一季度大幅增長。自我們第一季度電話會議以來，我們的現金狀況已顯著改善。我們在第二季度啟動了現金作戰室方法，使公司能夠更有效和高效地管理現金流，這不僅有利於第二季度，而且通過流程改進將有利於公司的持續業績。

As a result of this effort and improving business conditions, cash on hand at quarter end was $544 million, and our total debt levels finished the quarter at $1.9 billion down sequentially from Q1 by approximately $236 million or 11%. We currently have approximately $650 million available under our revolving credit line as well as within our loan, and we're also within our loan requirements.

由於這一努力和改善的業務條件，本季度末手頭現金為 5.44 億美元，本季度末我們的總債務水平為 19 億美元，比第一季度下降約 2.36 億美元或 11%。我們目前在循環信貸額度和貸款範圍內有大約 6.5 億美元的可用資金，而且我們也在我們的貸款要求之內。

Combined with our cash, we ended the quarter with approximately $1.2 billion of liquidity. Given our current liquidity and near-term outlook, we do not anticipate any liquidity issues for the foreseeable future.

加上我們的現金，我們在本季度結束時擁有大約 12 億美元的流動資金。鑑於我們目前的流動性和近期前景，我們預計在可預見的未來不會出現任何流動性問題。

Financial services income, which is primarily comprised of wholesale finance income and retail credit income was strong during the quarter, up 28%, driven by the strength of retail credit income given the strong retail demand. Dealer wholesale finance income was down 48% during the quarter due to dealer inventory levels being at historically low levels, as Scott explained earlier.

主要由批發金融收入和零售信貸收入組成的金融服務收入在本季度強勁增長 28%，這是由於零售需求強勁，零售信貸收入強勁。正如斯科特早些時候解釋的那樣，由於經銷商庫存水平處於歷史低位，本季度經銷商批發融資收入下降了 48%。

Moving to full year expectations. You'll recall that we withdrew our full year sales and earnings guidance back in March given the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the immediate negative impact to retail. Since that time, our visibility has improved somewhat. While we don't expect the demand trends seen in Q2 to continue at those rates, we are reinitiating guidance given depleted dealer inventory levels, coupled with modest ongoing powersports demand.

轉向全年預期。您會記得，鑑於 COVID-19 大流行的開始以及對零售業的直接負面影響，我們在 3 月份撤回了全年銷售和收益指導。從那時起，我們的知名度有所提高。雖然我們預計第二季度的需求趨勢不會以這些速度持續下去，但鑑於經銷商庫存水平已經耗盡，加上動力運動需求適度，我們正在重新啟動指導。

Total company sales are expected to be in the range of $6.65 billion to $6.75 billion, which is flat to down 2% [of sales] for 2020. We expect total company earnings per share to be in the range of $6.40 to $6.60 per diluted share, which is near the low end of our initial guidance of $6.80 to $7.05 per share that was provided back in January before the pandemic crisis.

公司總銷售額預計在 66.5 億美元至 67.5 億美元之間，與 2020 年持平或下降 2% [銷售額]。我們預計公司每股攤薄後每股收益將在 6.40 美元至 6.60 美元之間，接近我們在大流行危機前於 1 月份提供的每股 6.80 美元至 7.05 美元的初步指導的低端。

Given our full year sales and earnings guidance, second half sales are expected to increase in the mid- to high single digits percent, again, driven by low dealer inventory levels and modest ongoing powersports demand. The second half adjusted EPS equates to a range of $4.85 to $5.06 per diluted share or a 38% to 44% increase year-over-year.

鑑於我們的全年銷售和盈利指引，下半年的銷售額預計將以中高個位數百分比增長，這再次受到低經銷商庫存水平和溫和的持續動力運動需求的推動。下半年調整後每股收益相當於攤薄後每股收益 4.85 美元至 5.06 美元，同比增長 38% 至 44%。

For the second half of 2020, we expect our revenue to be approximately evenly split between Q3 and Q4. However, given the mix of products produced and the timing of new product introductions, second half earnings are more heavily weighted to the fourth quarter by about 60%.

對於 2020 年下半年，我們預計我們的收入將在第三季度和第四季度之間大致平均分配。然而，考慮到生產的產品組合和新產品推出的時間，下半年的收益對第四季度的權重更大，約為 60%。

Though our visibility has improved, I won't be giving as much detail as we typically do for guidance today as there are still many uncertainties around how this pandemic will play out for the remainder of the year. However, I will give you some top-level comments around a few key areas, beginning with gross margins.

儘管我們的知名度有所提高，但我不會像今天通常那樣提供那麼多的細節來提供指導，因為這種流行病在今年餘下時間將如何發展仍然存在許多不確定性。然而，我會圍繞幾個關鍵領域給你一些頂級評論，從毛利率開始。

We now expect our gross margins to be about flat compared to last year. Despite being down 230 basis points in the first half of the year, the significant second half improvement is driven by improved absorption at our factories, along with lower-than-expected tariff costs.

我們現在預計我們的毛利率與去年持平。儘管上半年下降了 230 個基點，但下半年的顯著改善是由我們工廠的吸收能力提高以及低於預期的關稅成本推動的。

During the first half of 2020, we applied for almost $20 million of refunds from past tariff payments and expect to apply for just under $10 million of additional refunds on exclusions already received in the second half. We've received the cash for the bulk of these applied-for refunds at this point.

在 2020 年上半年，我們從過去的關稅付款中申請了近 2000 萬美元的退款，並預計將在下半年申請近 1000 萬美元的額外退款。目前，我們已經收到大部分申請退款的現金。

Our full year guidance also assumes that we don't receive extensions for our current tariff exemptions, which are set to expire next month.

我們的全年指導還假設我們不會收到將於下個月到期的當前關稅豁免的延期。

Operating expenses are expected to be down slightly as a percent of sales and in total dollars year-over-year, given the cost actions taken in Q2 and continued cost discipline into the second half. Considering a recovery in our business, we have approved several strategic programs and marketing outlays. We will continue to manage our costs with discipline, mindful of the economic uncertainty.

考慮到第二季度採取的成本行動以及下半年持續的成本控制，預計營業費用佔銷售額的百分比和總額將同比略有下降。考慮到我們業務的複蘇，我們已經批准了幾項戰略計劃和營銷支出。考慮到經濟的不確定性，我們將繼續嚴格控製成本。

Financial services income is expected to be flat to last year with higher retail income, offset by lower wholesale proceeds from Polaris acceptance. And finally, foreign exchange, while slightly improved from our initial 2020 guidance is anticipated to be slightly negative to pretax profit.

金融服務收入預計與去年持平，零售收入增加，但被 Polaris 承兌業務的批發收入減少所抵消。最後，外匯雖然比我們最初的 2020 年指引略有改善，但預計對稅前利潤略有負面影響。

Moving on to sales expectations by segment. Again, I will give only directional expectations given the challenges in predicting with precision how the economy will perform. The strength of our second half recovery is primarily driven by the ORV/Snow, boats and PG&A businesses. We anticipate continued weakness in adjacent markets given the dependence on government, university, commercial and rental sales.

繼續按細分市場銷售預期。同樣，鑑於準確預測經濟表現的挑戰，我將只給出方向性預期。我們下半年的複蘇勢頭主要是由 ORV/Snow、船隻和 PG&A 業務推動的。鑑於對政府、大學、商業和租賃銷售的依賴，我們預計相鄰市場將持續疲軟。

With that, I'll turn it back over to Scott for some final thoughts.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給 Scott 做一些最後的想法。

Thanks, Mike. Our outlook is much improved from a quarter ago, and I certainly expect our forecast accuracy to at least be directionally correct this time as consumer and dealer demand has remained strong through July. We have invested significantly in tools, protective gear, and social distancing in our plants and offices to guard our employees from the risk of COVID-19 exposure and are redoubling our efforts as community spread increases.

謝謝，邁克。我們的前景比一個季度前有了很大改善，我當然希望這次我們的預測準確性至少在方向上是正確的，因為消費者和經銷商的需求在整個 7 月份都保持強勁。我們在工廠和辦公室的工具、防護裝備和社交距離方面投入了大量資金，以保護我們的員工免受 COVID-19 暴露的風險，並且隨著社區傳播的增加，我們正在加倍努力。

Dealer health is also a priority. And for the next few months, that means accelerating shipments. The advantages of RFM are paying dividends as we can shift production and redirect deliveries faster than our competition.

經銷商的健康也是一個優先事項。在接下來的幾個月裡，這意味著加快出貨量。RFM 的優勢正在帶來回報，因為我們可以比競爭對手更快地轉移生產和重新定向交付。

With our awesome team, impressive vehicles and accessories and engaging creative and rigorous sales execution, I like our chances to drive growth and market share gains in the second half. Aside from a few minor delays of our model year '21 product launches, they are on schedule and will emphasize the innovation is alive and thriving at Polaris.

憑藉我們出色的團隊、令人印象深刻的車輛和配件以及富有創意和嚴謹的銷售執行力，我希望我們有機會在下半年推動增長和市場份額的增長。除了我們 model year '21 產品發布的一些小延遲外，它們按計劃進行，並將強調創新在 Polaris 是活躍和蓬勃發展的。

As we proved in the first 6 months of the year, this Polaris team is ready to deal with whatever comes our way. Powersports appear strong, but the overall economic and global outlook is less clear amidst the persistent threat of COVID-19, so we will be prepared to navigate references if they arise.

正如我們在今年前 6 個月所證明的那樣，北極星團隊已準備好應對我們遇到的任何事情。Powersports 看起來很強勁，但在 COVID-19 的持續威脅下，整體經濟和全球前景不太明朗，因此我們將準備好在它們出現時導航參考。

While the risks are real and I'm not prone to optimism, I can fairly say that we are entering the second half of 2020 with the best setup for the industry and Polaris that I have seen in my dozen years at the helm. With that, I'll turn it over to Andra to open the line for questions.

雖然風險是真實存在的，而且我並不傾向於樂觀，但我可以公平地說，我們正在進入 2020 年下半年，這是我掌舵十幾年來所見過的行業和 Polaris 的最佳設置。有了這個，我會把它交給安德拉打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from James Hardiman of Wedbush Securities.

我們的第一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 James Hardiman。

I just wanted to make sure I understood the commentary on July since you put it out there, is it -- obviously, May and June were unprecedented in terms of ORV strength. It sounds like based on the prepared remarks and the press release that, that ultimately continued in July, is that accurate?

我只是想確保我理解 7 月的評論，因為你把它放在那裡，是嗎 - 顯然，就 ORV 強度而言，5 月和 6 月是前所未有的。這聽起來像是基於準備好的評論和最終在 7 月繼續發布的新聞稿，這是否準確？

It's still far above our expectations.

這仍然遠遠超出我們的預期。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe any more incremental color you could give us on that 75% of your sales, which came to -- from new customers that sounded like maybe the most bullish part of all of this? And maybe help us think about as you know, investors are going to look at this and say, wow, this is unbelievable, how are we going to comp against this next year, right? And so maybe any color you can give us on the sustainability of this unprecedented strength, maybe starting with that new customer piece?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，也許您可以為我們提供 75% 的銷售額的更多增量顏色，這些顏色來自新客戶，這聽起來可能是所有這一切中最樂觀的部分？也許可以幫助我們想想，正如你所知，投資者會看到這個並說，哇，這太不可思議了，明年我們將如何應對，對吧？因此，也許您可以就這種前所未有的實力的可持續性給我們任何顏色，也許從那個新的客戶開始？

It's probably helpful, James, as you can refer back to Slide 7, where we kind of go through some of the demographic increases that we've seen. But really, our core customers are very engaged right now, and we're seeing solid growth amongst our call, our loyal Polaris customers. But increasingly, with more time without -- again, it's without Little League Baseball, without soccer games, without being able to take a trip to Disney, they have more time and more money. And so a lot of people that are new to the sport are coming in and finding a vehicle that's right for their family or right for them.

這可能會有所幫助，James，你可以回顧幻燈片 7，我們在其中經歷了一些我們已經看到的人口增長。但實際上，我們的核心客戶現在非常投入，我們看到我們的電話、我們忠實的 Polaris 客戶正在穩步增長。但越來越多的時間沒有——再次強調，沒有小聯盟，沒有足球比賽，不能去迪斯尼旅行，他們有更多的時間和更多的錢。因此，許多剛開始接觸這項運動的人都在尋找適合他們家人或適合他們的車輛。

And what's nice about it, and I referred to it in my prepared remarks is that our core customers are great, but they're somewhat insular, right? They've got their riding buddies and they've got their core routines. But as we bring these new customers in, they're more likely to invite their friends to come along for a ride. They're more likely to be in line for a second Polaris vehicle over time. So we really like it.

這有什麼好處，我在準備好的評論中提到它是我們的核心客戶很棒，但他們有點孤立，對吧？他們有他們的騎友，他們有他們的核心程序。但是當我們把這些新客戶帶進來時，他們更有可能邀請他們的朋友一起來兜風。隨著時間的推移，他們更有可能排隊等候第二輛北極星汽車。所以我們真的很喜歡它。

And again, it's partly because of demographic shifts, but it's really a result of the tremendous effort that Pam Kermisch and her team are doing to facilitate this kind of growth. But you're certainly right. The comp next year is going to be tough.

再次強調，部分原因是人口變化，但這確實是 Pam Kermisch 和她的團隊為促進這種增長所做的巨大努力的結果。但你肯定是對的。明年的比賽將很艱難。

Our next question comes from Scott Stember of CL King.

我們的下一個問題來自 CL King 的 Scott Stember。

Can you maybe talk about the inventory situation? I know that, obviously, this is unforeseen demand, that's where bringing things down to depleted levels. But when will you guys get to a point where you feel that you have 100% of what you need at these levels? Or is there a risk that at some point you could start facing some serious shortages, particularly on the side-by-side side?

能否談談庫存情況？我知道，很明顯，這是不可預見的需求，這就是將事情降到耗盡水平的地方。但是你們什麼時候才能達到您覺得自己擁有這些級別所需的 100% 的地步？還是存在某種風險，您可能會在某個時候開始面臨一些嚴重的短缺，尤其是並排的？

We are seeing some shortages now. I will just applaud Steven Menneto and the team for really being able to move products around and get it where retail needs to be. With Monterrey being impacted as long as they were, it really did put pressure on razor production. And I think we've rebounded as fast as anyone possibly could in Mexico, but that was a bit of a challenge for us. And we're -- the plants are really running at rate right now, and we are making good progress. But as I said to James, the July demand still puts us so we're chasing demand and trying to replenish stock, and we're not making a whole lot of progress right now. But it’s hurting retail, but I will tell you that it's not hurting it such that it's not too bad.

我們現在看到一些短缺。我會為 Steven Menneto 和團隊鼓掌，因為他們真的能夠四處移動產品並將其帶到零售需要的地方。蒙特雷一直受到影響，這確實給剃須刀生產帶來了壓力。而且我認為我們的反彈速度是墨西哥任何人都可以達到的，但這對我們來說是一個挑戰。而且我們 - 這些工廠現在確實在按速度運行，我們正在取得良好進展。但正如我對 James 所說，7 月的需求仍然讓我們望而卻步，所以我們正在追逐需求並試圖補充庫存，但我們現在並沒有取得很大進展。但這對零售業造成了傷害，但我會告訴你，它並沒有傷害到零售業，所以還不算太糟糕。

All right. And lastly, just digging into this new customer that you talked about. Maybe just talk about the age profile and also the creditworthiness of these new people?

好的。最後，只是深入了解您談到的這個新客戶。也許只是談談這些新人的年齡和信譽？

Mike, I'll speak to the age. I mean what we've seen is in the 26% to 45%, which is kind of how we classify the millennials if you will. They were up 100% for us in the quarter compared to the 53% that we reported overall. So that age group certainly did well for us.

邁克，我要談談這個時代。我的意思是我們看到的是 26% 到 45%，如果你願意的話，這就是我們對千禧一代的分類方式。與我們報告的總體增長 53% 相比，本季度我們增長了 100%。所以那個年齡段的人對我們來說肯定做得很好。

And Scott, I would say from a creditworthiness. I mean we continue to see very strong performance. As we've talked in the past, we use a number of third-party independent financing partners. And so that creates a check imbalance. And what we've seen from the new demographic, the new customers coming in is they match the profile of the existing customers in terms of the income strength, the creditworthiness. So that's actually been a bright spot as we look at continued growth.

而斯科特，我想說的是信譽。我的意思是我們繼續看到非常強勁的表現。正如我們過去所說，我們使用了許多第三方獨立融資合作夥伴。這樣就造成了支票失衡。我們從新的人口統計中看到，新客戶的到來是他們在收入實力、信譽方面與現有客戶的概況相匹配。因此，當我們審視持續增長時，這實際上是一個亮點。

Our next question comes from Greg Badishkanian of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Greg Badishkanian。

Great. In terms of market share, the industry-wide, as well as Polaris ORV, rose, I think, in the low 60s, according to the slide for North America. And I'm just wondering your prediction of market share. And then just as a follow-up, given the scarcity of product at the dealer level, what's the promotional environment looking like now? And would you expect that to be abnormally low?

偉大的。就市場份額而言，根據北美的幻燈片，我認為整個行業以及 Polaris ORV 的市場份額都在 60 年代的低位上升。我只是想知道你對市場份額的預測。然後作為後續行動，鑑於經銷商級別產品的稀缺性，現在的促銷環境如何？你會認為它異常低嗎？

To start with the latter question, it is remarkably low. We're seeing good discipline amongst the OEMs. But really amongst the dealers. I mean, they recognize that they don't need to sell something that the next person will pay full price for. So we're really seeing good discipline. And we really like the fact that our dealers are seeing a profitability boost through this. It's helpful for us, and you'll see it in our reserves coming down, but it's also just helpful in the dealers' profitability as well. The -- what was the other part of the question?

從後一個問題開始，它非常低。我們在原始設備製造商中看到了良好的紀律。但確實在經銷商中。我的意思是，他們認識到他們不需要出售下一個人會支付全價的東西。所以我們真的看到了良好的紀律。我們非常喜歡這樣一個事實，即我們的經銷商通過此看到了盈利能力的提升。這對我們很有幫助，你會在我們的儲備中看到它在下降，但它也對經銷商的盈利能力有幫助。問題的另一部分是什麼？

Market share.

市場份額。

Market share. Yes. Really, what we're seeing is who's got products is the one gaining right now and the Japanese competitors tended to be the ones. I mean they were the share gainers in the quarter. We saw it. Don't like it. But nonetheless, we know how to do it. And again, I'm really pleased with the work that Steve Menneto and his team are doing on sales execution. Our dealer sentiment surveys were the highest that we've seen in -- actually since we've been doing the surveys. So really seeing some improvements there. But really, it was a good quarter for the Japanese, and it came at our expense and some of our other competitors.

市場份額。是的。真的，我們所看到的是誰擁有產品，誰現在就贏了，而日本的競爭對手往往是那些。我的意思是他們是本季度的股票上漲者。我們看到了。不喜歡它。但是，儘管如此，我們知道該怎麼做。再一次，我對 Steve Menneto 和他的團隊在銷售執行方面所做的工作感到非常滿意。我們的經銷商情緒調查是我們所見過的最高的——實際上是因為我們一直在進行調查。所以真的看到了一些改進。但實際上，這對日本人來說是一個不錯的季度，它是以我們和其他一些競爭對手為代價的。

Our next question comes from Joe Altobello of Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Joe Altobello。

So I wanted to go back to Slide 14 for a second, you point out your expectations for the powersports market issue to be up low single digits. It seems like that implies a pretty sharp slowdown in the second half. Does that mean that you feel like Q2 included a fair amount of pull forward? Or am I misinterpreting that?

所以我想暫時回到幻燈片 14，你指出你對動力運動市場問題的期望是低個位數。這似乎意味著下半年經濟將急劇放緩。這是否意味著您覺得 Q2 包含了相當多的前瞻性？還是我誤解了？

Yes, Joe, I don't know if I'd say pull forward. I think the fact that we've had so many new customers come into the business, that clearly has created a surge in demand. As I pointed out in my prepared remarks, we anticipate continued growth in the second half, just not at the same pace and cadence that we experienced in Q2. And certainly, we're making the investments to try and make that not the case. But at this point, we felt it was prudent to plan for those levels. And given where our dealer inventory level is, we've obviously got the plants running full board to make sure we've replenished that into the second half.

是的，喬，我不知道我是否會說向前拉。我認為我們有這麼多新客戶進入這個行業，這顯然造成了需求激增。正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣，我們預計下半年將繼續增長，只是速度和節奏與第二季度不同。當然，我們正在進行投資，試圖讓情況並非如此。但在這一點上，我們認為為這些級別進行規劃是明智的。考慮到我們的經銷商庫存水平，我們顯然已經讓工廠全食運行，以確保我們在下半年補充庫存。

That's helpful, Mike. And then maybe secondly on tariffs. You gave us a little bit of color earlier, but just wanted to clarify what the difference between tariff cost this year versus last year on a full year basis? I assume you don't get the extension beyond August.

這很有幫助，邁克。然後也許其次是關稅。你早些時候給了我們一些顏色，但只是想澄清今年的關稅成本與去年全年的差異是什麼？我假設您在 8 月之後不會得到延期。

Yes. So let me just give you a couple of data points. We're obviously still working through as we look into next year, what that means. And we're obviously still working to try and get exemptions extended. But as I look at the numbers for this year, we ended up roughly being close to $30 million lower than what we were expecting. And a big portion of that, as I indicated in my prepared remarks was the refunds that we've received. If you go back to our original guidance, I had mentioned, we were around $10 million of refunds that we thought we would have this year, and that number is getting closer to $30 million.

是的。所以讓我給你幾個數據點。在展望明年時，我們顯然仍在努力，這意味著什麼。而且我們顯然仍在努力嘗試延長豁免期限。但當我查看今年的數字時，我們最終比預期低了近 3000 萬美元。正如我在準備好的評論中指出的那樣，其中很大一部分是我們收到的退款。如果你回到我們最初的指導方針，我已經提到過，我們認為今年會有大約 1000 萬美元的退款，而且這個數字越來越接近 3000 萬美元。

And obviously, that won't repeat into next year. And then as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the exemptions are not assumed to extend for the balance of this year, and that's worth about $12 million. So that can give you a sense of what we're looking at, assuming nothing changes as we head into 2021. But we're obviously still working the mitigation efforts as hard as we can. We have moved some products out of China, and we'll continue to look for opportunities, and we're also continuing to work through USTR and the administration.

顯然，這種情況不會在明年重演。然後正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，假設豁免不會延長到今年的餘額，價值約為 1200 萬美元。因此，假設我們進入 2021 年時沒有任何變化，那麼這可以讓您了解我們正在看什麼。但顯然，我們仍在盡我們所能努力進行緩解工作。我們已經將一些產品移出中國，我們將繼續尋找機會，我們還將繼續通過美國貿易代表辦公室和政府開展工作。

Our next question comes from Tim Conder of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Tim Conder。

Gentlemen, first of all, congrats to you and the whole team, great execution, and when the goalpost continued to move throughout the whole quarter. Several of my questions have been answered. But Scott, going to Slide 6. Again, you said you're continuing to chase demand. It appears more on the ORV, kind of there where current demand is on motorcycles.

先生們，首先，祝賀你和整個團隊，出色的執行力，以及整個季度球門柱繼續移動的時間。我的幾個問題已經得到解答。但是斯科特，轉到幻燈片 6。您再次說過您將繼續追逐需求。它更多地出現在 ORV 上，有點像當前對摩托車的需求。

But obviously, the other part of that equation is the channel replenishment to adequate levels. When do you think that latter part, getting the channel back to adequate levels at this point would be reasonable to expect?

但顯然，該等式的另一部分是渠道補充到足夠的水平。您認為後一部分，此時將通道恢復到適當水平是合理的預期嗎？

I think we'll get motorcycles there by the beginning of the fourth quarter, so -- because demand does fall off for motorcycle seasonality. Certainly feels like we're going to be chasing for really the remainder of the year with off-road vehicles. Because as Mike said, we've been relatively conservative with our expectations for retail in the second half. But if it exceeds that, which it has so far in July, it could put us in a deficit situation where our optimal dealer inventory is for most of 2020.

我認為我們會在第四季度初將摩托車送到那裡，所以 - 因為摩托車季節性需求確實下降了。當然感覺我們將在今年餘下的時間裡用越野車追逐。因為正如邁克所說，我們對下半年零售業的預期相對保守。但如果它超過了 7 月份到目前為止的水平，它可能會使我們處於赤字狀態，我們的最佳經銷商庫存將在 2020 年的大部分時間裡出現。

Okay. And then if I may have the follow-on here. Any potential looking to repay liquidity? And then on tax law changes. So whoever wants to take this one, I know, Scott, this is probably not in your optimistic bucket, probably your pessimistic bucket, but proposed changes by some of the candidates out there on the individual and the corporate, how do you anticipate that at this point, the potential impact that, that could have on 2021 demand?

好的。然後，如果我可以在這裡進行跟進。是否有可能尋求償還流動性？然後是稅法的變化。所以無論誰想接受這個，我知道，斯科特，這可能不在你的樂觀桶中，可能是你的悲觀桶，但一些候選人提出了個人和公司的改變，你如何預計在這一點，可能對 2021 年需求產生的潛在影響？

I'm not going to speculate on what's going to happen in the political arena here over the next few months. I certainly don't -- part of the reason we're being conservative with our guidance is we're just not sure what the whole election rhetoric is going to mean to demand. So we're being a little bit cautious about that. Clearly, a change in the administration would be negative for tax policies for both corporations and likely many of our customers. So we're mindful and be watching that, but nothing we can do except try to get a different outcome.

我不打算推測未來幾個月這裡的政治舞台上會發生什麼。我當然不會——我們對我們的指導持保守態度的部分原因是我們只是不確定整個選舉言論對要求意味著什麼。所以我們對此有點謹慎。顯然，政府的變動對兩家公司和我們的許多客戶的稅收政策都是不利的。所以我們很注意並關注這一點，但除了嘗試獲得不同的結果外，我們無能為力。

And then from a liquidity standpoint, obviously, we're doing tremendously better than we had expected. And anticipate that, that will continue through the year. We guided that our operating cash flow will be up mid-teens. And I think we're going to be in a position -- we have $100 million in notes that come due in December. That will be easily dispensed. The biggest issue that I'm working through with my team right now is the $300 million of term loan that we took out. There are restrictions as have been publicly disclosed around share repurchase and some other things. And I think I'd like to try and get that off of our shoulders as best we can. But we'll continue to look at that. We want to make sure that our forecast is settled out, and things are working towards what we've guided, if not better. And we'll continue to manage that. But our goal is to continue to delever the business, and we did that in Q2, and we'll do that for the rest of the year.

然後從流動性的角度來看，顯然，我們的表現比我們預期的要好得多。並預計，這將持續到今年。我們指導我們的經營現金流量將達到十幾歲。而且我認為我們將處於一個位置——我們有 1 億美元的票據將於 12 月到期。這將很容易分配。我現在和我的團隊一起解決的最大問題是我們獲得的 3 億美元定期貸款。圍繞股票回購和其他一些事情公開披露了一些限制。而且我想我想盡我們所能嘗試把它從我們的肩膀上拿下來。但我們會繼續關注這一點。我們希望確保我們的預測得到解決，並且事情正在朝著我們所指導的方向發展，如果不是更好的話。我們將繼續管理它。但我們的目標是繼續去槓桿化業務，我們在第二季度做到了這一點，我們將在今年餘下的時間裡做到這一點。

Our next question comes from Brett Andress of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Brett Andress。

So just following up on promotions. What do you plan to do about the fact that you authorized clearances fall, given the inventory situation. And then normally, this time of the year, we started to hear new products. In news you mentioned some delays, but is the timing of those releases still sometime here in 2020?

所以只是跟進促銷活動。鑑於庫存情況，您打算如何處理您授權的清關下降這一事實。然後通常，每年的這個時候，我們開始聽到新產品。在新聞中你提到了一些延遲，但這些發布的時間是否仍然在 2020 年的某個時候？

Yes. No, as I said, we've been -- the team has really done a nice job. And I -- when I say the team, it's certainly our engineering group, which many of them have been working remotely, have really done a nice job working with our supply chain team and our factories teams to keep our production launches on schedule. I don't think anything has moved out of the year. Now we may choose for commercial reasons to not launch something depending on how late it goes in the season.

是的。不，正如我所說，我們一直 - 團隊確實做得很好。我——當我說團隊時，肯定是我們的工程團隊，他們中的許多人一直在遠程工作，他們與我們的供應鏈團隊和工廠團隊合作，確實做得很好，以確保我們的生產按時啟動。我認為今年沒有任何變化。現在，出於商業原因，我們可能會選擇不發布某些東西，具體取決於它在這個季節有多晚。

But no, certainly, everything is on track to be in the year if we want it to be within the year. The FAC, as you can imagine, without any inventory -- excess inventory, we won't be running our traditional FAC playbook. I will tell you, though, the team has really come up with a great plan with, again, as I talked about, the strong demand for accessories, the record PG&A quarter that we had. We are going to have an event where we promote our aftermarket accessories and give people the opportunity to accessorize their vehicles through this -- the fall thing. But right now, with demand where it is, it would be foolish to spend money on an FAC.

但不，當然，如果我們希望在年內完成，那麼一切都有望在年內完成。FAC，正如您想像的那樣，沒有任何庫存——庫存過剩，我們將不會運行我們傳統的 FAC 劇本。不過，我會告訴你，該團隊確實提出了一個偉大的計劃，正如我所說的那樣，對配件的強勁需求，以及我們創紀錄的 PG&A 季度。我們將舉辦一個活動，推廣我們的售後配件，並讓人們有機會通過這個 - 秋季活動來裝飾他們的車輛。但現在，鑑於需求，花錢購買 FAC 是愚蠢的。

Got it. And if I could just follow-up a bit more on inventory, likely to be down substantially by year-end. But is there a new normal of channel inventory you want to end up at when things start to normalize? I guess what I'm getting at is, will dealer turns possibly be structurally higher coming out of this going forward?

知道了。如果我能對庫存進行更多跟進，到年底可能會大幅下降。但是，當事情開始正常化時，您是否希望達到新的渠道庫存常態？我想我的意思是，經銷商的轉向可能會在結構上更高嗎？

I -- one of the investments we've made and Ken Pucel and his team really led, is to get RFM throughout the entire portfolio. And so we've been working with our dealers prior to the pandemic, and actually, in the early days of the pandemic, they wanted less inventory. So we were helping them to lower their profiles. We are certainly looking at how much inventory is finished goods inventory we need, and how much inventory we need in the channel. And that's an individual profile with each individual dealer that we will continue to evaluate and know. But I don't know that it's a huge step down, but it's likely to be slightly less.

我——我們所做的投資之一，以及 Ken Pucel 和他的團隊真正領導的投資，就是讓 RFM 貫穿整個投資組合。因此，在大流行之前，我們一直在與我們的經銷商合作，實際上，在大流行的初期，他們希望減少庫存。所以我們正在幫助他們降低他們的知名度。我們當然在看我們需要多少庫存是成品庫存，以及我們在渠道中需要多少庫存。這是我們將繼續評估和了解的每個經銷商的個人資料。但我不知道這是一個巨大的下降，但可能會略微下降。

Our next question comes from Jaime Katz of Morningstar.

我們的下一個問題來自 Morningstar 的 Jaime Katz。

Guys, nice quarter. So I'm curious about gross margin gains ahead. And I surmise that the greatest gains that we're going to see in the second half as we get back to flattish gross margins for the year would be in ORVs and boats. But is there any other catalysts we should really be thinking about that will help that metric improve?

伙計們，不錯的季度。所以我對未來的毛利率增長感到好奇。而且我推測，隨著我們回到當年持平的毛利率，我們將在下半年看到的最大收益將是 ORV 和船隻。但是，我們真的應該考慮是否還有其他催化劑可以幫助改善該指標？

Yes, Jaime, it's going to primarily be driven by just the surge in volume. When you look at -- from first half to second half, our volume is going to be up well over $800 million, and we're driving a 40-plus percent drop rate. And then just given the mix of business, I think it's important to point out, and we've talked in the past, our ATV, portion of ORV does carry less lower margins than side-by-side, and we've experienced strong growth there as well. So that will dampen that just a little bit. And there's a little bit of favorability from some of the tariff refunds that will come into the second half, but really, we're actually going to start to face headwinds as we get into the latter part of Q3 and into Q4, given the exemptions will expire and we'll be bleeding off the lower value inventory. So I mean that's really the gist of it. Our supply chain transformation program is continued in earnest. I can tell you that the team has not taken any of the pressure off of that. The savings, as we've talked in the past, are ramping as we get into the second half. So that's certainly providing a little bit of tailwind. And -- but it's really attributable to the volume increase.

是的，Jaime，它主要是由銷量激增推動的。當你看——從上半年到下半年，我們的銷量將增長超過 8 億美元，而我們正在推動 40% 以上的下降率。然後考慮到業務組合，我認為重要的是要指出，我們過去曾談過，我們的 ATV，ORV 的部分利潤率確實低於並排，而且我們經歷了強勁的增長那裡也有增長。所以這會抑制一點點。下半年的一些關稅退款會帶來一些好處，但實際上，考慮到豁免，我們實際上將在進入第三季度末和第四季度時開始面臨不利因素將過期，我們將消耗掉價值較低的庫存。所以我的意思是這真的是它的要點。我們的供應鏈轉型計劃將繼續認真進行。我可以告訴你，團隊並沒有減輕任何壓力。正如我們過去所說，隨著我們進入下半年，節省的資金正在增加。所以這肯定會提供一點順風。而且 - 但它確實歸因於數量的增加。

Okay. That's helpful. And then with the write-down on TAP, I think you've probably updated your prognosis for both sales potential and maybe profit potential for that segment. Is there any insight you guys might be willing to offer on that as you revalue that TAP business?

好的。這很有幫助。然後隨著 TAP 的減記，我認為您可能已經更新了對該細分市場的銷售潛力和利潤潛力的預測。在重新評估 TAP 業務時，你們是否願意就此提供任何見解？

Yes. So the -- 2 things. One, we reevaluated TAP and boats. You'll be able to read it in the Q that comes out today. The TAP business was far more significantly impacted. It performs better than automotive, but it follows more of those trends, which have been quite deep, and that really triggered what we had to do on that business. The boats business has been impacted, but it's held up well and Jake and the team continue to run that business incredibly well. And while it did lower the headroom versus -- between the market and book value, we still obviously, are in a good spot there. And assuming we don't have any further economic issues, we're pretty confident with what we can do with that business going forward.

是的。所以 - 兩件事。第一，我們重新評估了 TAP 和船隻。您將能夠在今天發布的 Q 中閱讀它。TAP 業務受到的影響要大得多。它的表現比汽車更好，但它更多地遵循了這些趨勢，這些趨勢已經非常深刻，並且確實觸發了我們必須在該業務上做的事情。船隻業務受到了影響，但情況良好，傑克和團隊繼續出色地經營該業務。雖然它確實降低了淨空——在市場和賬面價值之間，但我們顯然仍然處於一個很好的位置。假設我們沒有任何進一步的經濟問題，我們對未來可以做的事情非常有信心。

Scott went through it in the prepared remarks with TAP. The retail side of that business is doing very well, especially with being slightly handicapped by some of the store closures and things that we've been dealing with, but the pickup in-store and just the overall retail performance, do it yourself, really has propelled that business nicely.

Scott 在與 TAP 的準備好的發言中經歷了它。該業務的零售方面表現非常好，特別是在一些商店關閉和我們一直在處理的事情上略有障礙，但店內提貨和整體零售業績，自己做，真的很好地推動了這項業務。

Our next question comes from Gerrick Johnson of BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Gerrick Johnson。

So on the first quarter call, you guys -- on the first quarter call, you commented that COVID hotspots were not necessarily really off-road riding areas. That seems to have flipped. Now the hotspots are in the South and West and interior. Has that affected retail at all? Is that a concern? Or was that something that in retrospect really wasn't an issue on the first quarter?

所以在第一季度的電話會議上，你們——在第一季度的電話會議上，你們評論說 COVID 熱點不一定是真正的越野騎行區域。好像翻車了現在熱點在南部、西部和內陸。這對零售業有影響嗎？這是一個問題嗎？或者回想起來，這在第一季度真的不是問題嗎？

No. I think what -- remember, riding an off-road vehicle is about one of the safest things you could do to not get COVID-19. Most people are wearing gloves, they're wearing helmets. They're in the outdoors. Those 3 things are about as good as it gets. And certainly, and I think what I said is, what I meant when I talked about the hotspots aren't where we sell. It wasn't -- that's not where we sell during the pandemic. That's not where we sell anyway. I mean, San Francisco, New York City, they're great markets for some things, they're just not great markets for snowmobiles and off-road vehicles. And Chicago is a good market for motorcycles, but some of the other cities are not. So I really think as the -- in a weird way, Gerrick, the pandemic drives, it limits people's opportunities to do other things, which brings them into powersports. And we've seen that continue in as the media talks about the increases in some of these states. It really is not -- there's been 0 negative correlation with our retail.

不。我認為 - 請記住，騎越野車是避免感染 COVID-19 的最安全的方法之一。大多數人都戴著手套，他們戴著頭盔。他們在戶外。這 3 件事已經差不多了。當然，我想我所說的是，我所說的熱點不是我們銷售的地方。它不是——那不是我們在大流行期間銷售的地方。那不是我們賣東西的地方。我的意思是，舊金山、紐約市，它們是某些東西的大市場，但它們不是雪地車和越野車的大市場。芝加哥是摩托車的好市場，但其他一些城市卻不是。所以我真的認為——以一種奇怪的方式，格里克，流行病的驅動，它限制了人們做其他事情的機會，這使他們進入了動力運動。隨著媒體談論其中一些州的增加，我們已經看到這種情況仍在繼續。確實不是——與我們的零售業呈 0 負相關。

Our next question comes from Robin Farley of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

You've commented on it a little bit, but I just want to clarify 2 things on your retail expectations for the year, you're saying up low single digits for the market, and then I know you said Polaris is a little bit ahead of that. But given that the industry was up 50% to 60% in Q2, how do you get to low single digits for the year without declines in the second half? In other words, I don't know if you're just sort of kind of making a conservative statement about the full year. Just trying to square the math of that.

你對此發表了一些評論，但我只想澄清兩件事，你對今年的零售預期，你說的是市場低個位數，然後我知道你說北極星有點領先那個。但鑑於該行業在第二季度增長了 50% 至 60%，您如何在下半年不下降的情況下實現今年的低個位數增長？換句話說，我不知道你是否只是對全年做出保守的聲明。只是想把它的數學平方。

Yes. We do have retail -- I would tell you, Robin, it's kind of flattish in the second half. We expect Q2 will -- or Q3 will continue to be positive, although not anywhere near as positive as what Q2 was. But Q4 is when we anticipate things will go negative. I do think we are being conservative, given what we've seen in July, but we've seen how volatile the environment can be. And depending on how things shake out with how COVID will be dealt with. We've got the election uncertainty. There's just a number of different things that could interject a lot of volatility and, quite frankly, give us uncertainty.

是的。我們確實有零售——羅賓，我會告訴你，下半年有點平淡。我們預計第二季度或第三季度將繼續保持積極，儘管不如第二季度那麼積極。但是第四季度是我們預計事情會變得消極的時候。鑑於我們在 7 月份所看到的情況，我確實認為我們是保守的，但我們已經看到了環境的動盪程度。並且取決於如何處理 COVID 的情況。我們有選舉的不確定性。有許多不同的因素可能會引起很大的波動，坦率地說，會給我們帶來不確定性。

So that's the way we're looking at it right now. And obviously, if things start to play out better than that, we're in a position, just given all the great work that's been done in our factories to be able to try and respond to that.

這就是我們現在看待它的方式。顯然，如果事情開始變得比這更好，我們就可以，只要我們工廠所做的所有出色工作就能夠嘗試對此做出回應。

That's great. And then also your -- I mean, your expectation that it's going to kind of take you most of the rest of the year to kind of replenish dealer inventory, at least in the ORV segment. Does that mean -- I guess, how should we think about if sales -- if retail is better than the sort of flattish outlook you're saying for the second half? Does your -- do capacity constraints limit your retail? In other words, what -- is supply ultimately going to be capping that growth as well, just given, obviously, how depleted the inventories are? Is there -- can we think about like kind of what the supply constraint might be on retail in the second half?

那太棒了。然後還有你的 - 我的意思是，你的期望是它會在今年剩餘的大部分時間里花費你來補充經銷商庫存，至少在 ORV 部分。這是否意味著——我想，我們應該如何考慮銷售——如果零售業好於你所說的下半年那種持平的前景？您的容量限制是否限制了您的零售？換句話說，供應最終是否也會限制這種增長，顯然，考慮到庫存的消耗程度？有沒有 - 我們可以考慮下半年零售業的供應限制嗎？

Robin, I will tell you, again, I just want to give a shout out to what the work that Steve Menneto and our logistics team and everybody is doing to move stuff around. Even with inventory down where it is, we are seeing incredibly strong retail through July. So I'll tell you that we're almost down 50% from where we were at the end of this first quarter, and we're still driving very, very strong retail.

羅賓，我會再次告訴你，我只想大聲疾呼史蒂夫·門內托和我們的後勤團隊以及每個人在搬運東西方面所做的工作。即使庫存下降，我們仍會看到整個 7 月份的零售量都非常強勁。所以我會告訴你，我們比第一季度末的水平下降了近 50%，而且我們仍在推動非常非常強勁的零售。

So we're not -- it's not like there's 0 on the floor. It just limits the upside that we're seeing. And certainly, if demand continues as it is, we will be chasing it longer than we anticipate.

所以我們不是——地板上沒有 0。它只是限制了我們看到的好處。當然，如果需求繼續保持現狀，我們將比預期更長時間地追逐它。

Our factories, I'm really pleased with the work going on in our supply chain in factories to be running as well as they can. So it literally is just a matter of what happens with retail, but we don't think there's a huge hit, I mean, all we're doing is talking about decreasing the significant positivity of retail. I don't think that's a terrible thing.

我們的工廠，我真的很高興我們的工廠供應鏈中的工作能夠盡可能地運行。所以從字面上看，這只是零售業發生的事情，但我們認為不會產生巨大影響，我的意思是，我們所做的只是談論降低零售業的顯著積極性。我不認為這是一件可怕的事情。

So you could grow retail double digits in the third quarter. And again, not at the level you saw in Q2, but you're not capacity constrained to that degree, it sounds like, right? You could still do some level of double-digit retail in Q2?

所以你可以在第三季度實現兩位數的零售增長。再說一次，不是你在第二季度看到的水平，但你的容量並沒有受到那種程度的限制，這聽起來像是，對吧？你還能在第二季度進行某種程度的兩位數零售嗎？

Our dealers are not going to run out of inventory.

我們的經銷商不會耗盡庫存。

Our next question comes from David McGregor of Longbow Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Longbow Research 的 David McGregor。

It's Colton West on for David. I guess to start off, how has COVID-19 impacted the way that Polaris conducts business online in the long-term? And are you looking at more direct-to-consumer channel utilization?

這是大衛的科爾頓韋斯特。我想首先，從長遠來看，COVID-19 對 Polaris 在線開展業務的方式有何影響？您是否正在尋找更直接面向消費者的渠道利用率？

Last time we talked about the launch of quick deliver ride, which has been really helpful, and we're seeing more of our customers engage online with Transamerican Auto Parts, for example, they've got a great online presence that is really doing well. And our own accessories and aftermarket business were increasingly creating opportunities for consumers to buy from us and pick up at the dealership.

上次我們談到了快速送貨服務的推出，這真的很有幫助，我們看到越來越多的客戶在線參與 Transamerican Auto Parts，例如，他們在網上的表現非常好.我們自己的配件和售後市場業務也越來越多地為消費者創造從我們這裡購買並在經銷商處提貨的機會。

So we are doing more to move people in that direction. Really, it's enhancing the website to make it easier for people to do the shopping there and then ultimately coordinate with that delivery to the consumer. So a lot is happening in that environment. We just launched the industry's first customer portal, we saw the press release perhaps yesterday with ride ready and the ability to have dealers come to your house and repair your products.

所以我們正在做更多的工作來推動人們朝這個方向發展。實際上，它正在增強網站，使人們更容易在那裡購物，然後最終協調向消費者的交付。在那個環境中發生了很多事情。我們剛剛推出了業界第一個客戶門戶網站，我們可能在昨天看到了新聞稿，內容包括準備就緒以及讓經銷商上門維修產品的能力。

So we are certainly preparing to lead the way for a more digital future, but it's transpiring now. Certainly, with adventures, we are gaining just tremendous momentum there as more people take advantage of the opportunity to find a place to ride and go do it for a weekend. Ultimately, that's going to be helpful to long-term purchases. So yes, the team has really embraced it, but not a tremendous shift from first quarter to now.

因此，我們當然準備引領一個更加數字化的未來，但它現在正在發生。當然，有了冒險，我們在那裡獲得了巨大的動力，因為越來越多的人利用這個機會找到一個騎車的地方並去度週末。最終，這將有助於長期購買。所以是的，團隊真的接受了它，但從第一季度到現在並沒有發生巨大的轉變。

Okay. And then can you provide some color on Challenger and how the progress is going there?

好的。然後你能提供一些關於挑戰者的顏色以及進展如何嗎？

I believe on the first quarter call, you guys commented that Challenger was taking share and Indian up -- retail up mid-teens percent in the second quarter would suggest that you guys are continuing to do so? And what does the owner profile look like for Challenger specifically?

我相信在第一季度的電話會議上，你們評論說 Challenger 正在搶占份額，而 Indian 的份額在第二季度增長了 15% 左右，這表明你們會繼續這樣做嗎？Challenger 的所有者資料具體是什麼樣的？

Challenger, as I indicated in my prepared remarks, is doing extremely well. And we like our heavyweight segment. It's more profitable, but really midsize has done just a tremendous resurgence in our midsized bike. Scout Bobber and even FTR are performing well. But really, it's that -- the first liquid-cooled bike we've ever put out. Really the -- it fits the profile for many riders that actually liked Victory. It gives them a little more room on the bike. And really, when compared to the competition, it's just hands-down better bikes. So we feel really good about what the demand has been, both from consumers and now dealers, and it should be a gift that keeps on giving for a while.

正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣，Challenger 做得非常好。我們喜歡我們的重量級部分。它的利潤更高，但真正的中型自行車在我們的中型自行車中實現了巨大的複興。Scout Bobber 甚至 FTR 都表現不錯。但實際上，這就是我們推出的第一款液冷自行車。真的——它符合許多真正喜歡 Victory 的車手的形象。這給了他們更多的自行車空間。實際上，與競爭對手相比，它確實是更好的自行車。因此，我們對消費者和現在的經銷商的需求感到非常滿意，這應該是一份持續贈送一段時間的禮物。

Our next question comes from Craig Kennison of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Craig Kennison。

And great call, really helpful discussion here. My question was on Indian. The largest competitor there is conceding market share to focus on scarcity value. And that would seem to leave a nice price umbrella for Indian and really open the door for further share gains. Does that change your view at all on the potential for Indian volumes and profitability going forward?

很棒的電話，這裡的討論真的很有幫助。我的問題是關於印度語的。那裡最大的競爭對手正在放棄市場份額以專注於稀缺價值。這似乎為 Indian 留下了一個不錯的價格保護傘，並真正為進一步擴大份額打開了大門。這是否會完全改變您對印度未來銷量和盈利能力潛力的看法？

What we've seen -- I mean, a year ago, you might recall, there was some lunacy over there as they were embracing promotions and discounts at a rate we hadn't seen ever from them. So I think pulling back from that and having a more rational approach makes a lot of sense. The industry needs better pricing power. Our dealers need better that. And to see some discipline there is welcome news. Ultimately, it's a good brand. They've got a good dealer network.

我們所看到的——我的意思是，一年前，你可能還記得，那裡有些瘋狂，因為他們以我們從未見過的速度進行促銷和折扣。所以我認為從中退出並採用更理性的方法很有意義。該行業需要更好的定價能力。我們的經銷商需要更好的。看到一些紀律有一個受歡迎的消息。最後，這是一個好品牌。他們有一個良好的經銷商網絡。

And we don't expect to have this gift that they've given us continue. But certainly, with lower unit volume in their dealerships and higher prices, and really, we've just got a great lineup of bikes. I'd tell you what Mike Dougherty and his team are doing to make sure that we're getting the bikes where they need to be. But really, the lineup is good and getting better. And we're encouraged by it.

而且我們不希望繼續擁有他們給我們的這份禮物。但可以肯定的是，由於他們的經銷商單位銷量較低且價格較高，而且實際上，我們剛剛擁有了一系列很棒的自行車。我會告訴您 Mike Dougherty 和他的團隊正在做什麼，以確保我們將自行車送到需要的地方。但實際上，陣容很好，而且越來越好。我們對此感到鼓舞。

Our next question comes from Brandon Rolle of North Coast.

我們的下一個問題來自北海岸的 Brandon Rolle。

I just had a couple of questions. First, on parts and accessories availability, I think everyone understands ORV inventories challenge, but could you shed a little light on parts and accessories availability, especially ahead of a factory authorized clearance, will you be running a special event for parts and accessories? And then two, just also, could you talk about the new families that are coming in, are they replacing a vacation?

我只是有幾個問題。首先，關於零件和配件的可用性，我想每個人都理解 ORV 庫存挑戰，但是您能否稍微說明一下零件和配件的可用性，尤其是在工廠授權清關之前，您是否會舉辦零件和配件的特別活動？然後還有兩個，你能談談即將到來的新家庭嗎，他們是在代替假期嗎？

Or do you really think these families are staying in the industry for the long haul?

還是您真的認為這些家族會長期留在這個行業？

Steve Eastman has done a miraculous job with our business since he's been here. And really, the team is managing inventory reasonably well. We were a little heavy with PG&A inventory, both in our dealerships and within our own warehouses. So this has helped clean that up a good bit. And they've done, again, just like the whole goods, they've done a nice job managing the supply chain. So we're not seeing many stock outs. And when we do, they're days, not weeks or months. So that's been very helpful. And really, FAC is really designed around some of those accessories that are slower moving, but really beneficial to consumers. And I think, Steve and Steve, Eastman and Menetto, have worked together to come up with a good plan there that I think should work well for our dealers.

史蒂夫·伊士曼 (Steve Eastman) 來到這里後，對我們的業務做出了奇蹟般的貢獻。事實上，該團隊在管理庫存方面做得相當好。我們的經銷商和我們自己的倉庫中的 PG&A 庫存都有些沉重。所以這有助於清理它。而且他們再次做了，就像整個商品一樣，他們在管理供應鏈方面做得很好。所以我們沒有看到很多缺貨。當我們這樣做時，他們只是幾天，而不是幾週或幾個月。所以這非常有幫助。事實上，FAC 確實是圍繞一些移動速度較慢但對消費者真正有益的配件設計的。而且我認為，史蒂夫和史蒂夫，伊士曼和梅內託一起工作，提出了一個很好的計劃，我認為應該對我們的經銷商有效。

Yes. I think the question around the new families and how permanent. I think when you're making a commitment to the price tag of the vehicles we have, I think it's safe to assume that this is going to become part of what they do, and they're going to realize that it becomes a great family activity. As Scott said in his remarks, the number of 4 seat vehicles or crew vehicles that we're selling is highly indicative of this being more of a family activity. And while it may not fully displace people taking vacations, I think that it brings a new aspect of being outdoors. And enjoying that with not only their family but with friends.

是的。我認為圍繞新家庭的問題以及如何永久存在。我認為當你對我們擁有的車輛的價格標籤作出承諾時，我認為可以安全地假設這將成為他們所做工作的一部分，並且他們將意識到它成為一個偉大的家庭活動。正如斯科特在他的發言中所說，我們出售的 4 座車輛或載人車輛的數量高度表明這更像是一項家庭活動。雖然它可能不會完全取代人們去度假，但我認為它帶來了戶外活動的新面貌。不僅與家人而且與朋友一起享受。

And we think that that's something that can continue into the future. It's something that we've been focused on. It was a big part of the rebranding of the company that we did. And so we think it is sustainable. Obviously, the growth rates will be tough to mimic, but we do think that we're bringing these folks in permanently into the family.

我們認為這可以持續到未來。這是我們一直關注的事情。這是我們所做的公司品牌重塑的重要組成部分。所以我們認為它是可持續的。顯然，增長率將很難模仿，但我們確實認為我們正在將這些人永久帶入家庭。

Our next question comes from Mark Smith of Lake Street.

我們的下一個問題來自 Lake Street 的 Mark Smith。

Can you talk about with new customers coming into the space, primarily as we look at off-road vehicles? Just a little bit about your mix, did you see more let's call them entry type vehicles, maybe some older 900s and 1,000s versus XPs and Pro XPs or perhaps how ATVs trended during the quarter?

您能否與進入該領域的新客戶談談，主要是因為我們關注的是越野車？關於您的組合，您有沒有看到更多讓我們稱之為入門級車輛，也許是一些較舊的 900 和 1,000 與 XP 和 Pro XP 相比，或者 ATV 在本季度的趨勢如何？

Certainly, that's -- you kind of nailed it. I mean we certainly saw exactly that happen. Now part of it, again, was due to availability. But I think first priority, we saw people wanting crew vehicles. That's just where they are. But then the next thing down, ATVs were very, very strong in the quarter. And ultimately, I think newer families, as Mike just talked about, they come in, they don't want to buy that premium vehicle. They just want something to be able to get on the trail and enjoy time with the family. So I will tell you, mostly what's driving the mix is availability right now. And -- but those new customers are wanting to try it out and not the premium side of the market.

當然，那是——你有點成功了。我的意思是我們確實看到了這種情況。現在，它的一部分再次是由於可用性。但我認為首要任務是，我們看到人們想要載人車輛。那就是他們所在的地方。但接下來，全地形車在本季度表現非常非常強勁。最後，我認為新的家庭，正如邁克剛才所說的那樣，他們進來了，他們不想購買那種高檔汽車。他們只是想要一些東西能夠上路並與家人共度時光。所以我會告訴你，推動混合的主要因素是現在的可用性。而且——但那些新客戶想嘗試一下，而不是市場的高端產品。

Okay. And follow-up to that, does that give you perhaps opportunity for upgrade as we look maybe next summer? And then also with that, just anything you can talk about on stimulus and how you think that impacted sales? And as you look at maybe another round coming out to any potential positive impacts from that?

好的。對此的後續行動，這是否給你提供了升級的機會，就像我們明年夏天看起來的那樣？然後還有關於刺激的任何內容，以及您認為這對銷售有何影響？當你看到另一輪可能會產生任何潛在的積極影響時？

I don't think next year. All of these new customers coming in, they're not likely to upgrade a year from now. I mean, I think some will -- we love those people that do, but I don't think we should count on that. What is more likely though is, again, as I said, the likelihood of them inviting their friends and so they have someone else to ride with and having those people ultimately buy vehicles is much more likely than that individual upgrading the vehicle.

我不認為明年。所有這些新客戶進來，他們不太可能在一年後升級。我的意思是，我認為有些人會——我們喜歡那些這樣做的人，但我認為我們不應該指望這一點。不過，更有可能的是，正如我所說，他們邀請他們的朋友的可能性，因此他們有其他人可以一起騎行，並且讓這些人最終購買車輛的可能性比個人升級車輛的可能性要大得多。

I think from a stimulus standpoint, we've actually spent a lot of time with our partner retail financing banks as well as external advisers. And the U.S. savings rate went up. We saw consumers actually prepaying loans. There was some taking advantage of deferral of loan payments and things like that, but those seem to be returning to normal levels. It doesn't look like people were using that as just a way to get to a new vehicle. As I mentioned earlier, the creditworthiness of these folks coming in, they typically have dual income family. They weren't necessarily heavily impacted by the unemployment activity that happened coming out of Q1 and into Q2, and we think that they saw this as a way to use money that they had allocated for other things, vacations, cruises, you name it. So at this point, we don't foresee that the stimulus necessarily had a gigantic impact. Now, if there were more stimulus that were to come in the system, I think it just gives people that much more confidence and could create more stimulus for demand going forward.

我認為從刺激的角度來看，我們實際上已經花了很多時間與我們的合作夥伴零售金融銀行以及外部顧問合作。美國的儲蓄率上升了。我們看到消費者實際上是在預付貸款。有一些人利用延期償還貸款之類的機會，但這些似乎正在恢復到正常水平。看起來人們並不只是將其用作獲得新車的一種方式。正如我之前提到的，這些人的信用度很高，他們通常是雙職工家庭。他們不一定受到第一季度和第二季度發生的失業活動的嚴重影響，我們認為他們認為這是一種使用他們分配給其他事情、假期、遊輪的錢的方式。因此，在這一點上，我們預計刺激措施不一定會產生巨大影響。現在，如果系統中出現更多刺激措施，我認為這只會讓人們更有信心，並可能為未來的需求創造更多刺激。

Our next question comes from Joe Spak of RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joe Spak。

Scott, I miss sports for many reasons, but one of them is certainly you're running at a little anecdotes to compare the business to. Bigger picture question, just away from all the positives for the near-term trends. It's -- and it's really somewhat of a strategic question. So in the past, you've talked about electrification, and I know you have some product there. It's still prohibitively expensive. And I think if you look at the listed price from some new competitors taking preorders for vehicles that are not available until '21 if ever, prove that, but I am wondering if there's a lesson there for you because the costs will come down. You know the ORV customer better than anyone. And so have you thought about that sort of model about putting out a vehicle design, taking preorders, seeing what demand really is, and trying to retain your leadership for what could be a growing part of the market over the years? And maybe you could just remind us, would you always do something the powertrain for those alternative vehicles in-house? Or would you ever partner?

斯科特，我懷念體育有很多原因，但其中一個原因肯定是你在跑一些軼事來比較這項業務。更大的問題，只是遠離近期趨勢的所有積極因素。這是 - 這確實是一個戰略問題。所以在過去，你談到了電氣化，我知道你在那裡有一些產品。它仍然非常昂貴。而且我認為，如果您查看一些新競爭對手的標價，這些競爭對手預訂了直到 21 年才可用的車輛，證明這一點，但我想知道是否有給您的教訓，因為成本會下降。您比任何人都了解 ORV 客戶。那麼，您是否考慮過這種模式，即推出車輛設計、接受預訂、了解真正的需求，並努力保持您在多年來可能成為市場增長部分的領導地位？也許你可以提醒我們，你會一直在內部為那些替代車輛做一些動力總成嗎？或者你會合作嗎？

Yes. Good question, Joe. I'll tell you that I'm counting on Navy/Notre Dame playing the -- on Labor Day weekend to kind of get back into the whole sports analogy opportunity for me, but we'll see what happens. Certainly been a bit dismal of late. When we made the leadership change last year, we put Chris Musso into this electrification role for us. And while we haven't been issuing press releases, there have been -- has been tremendous progress made by the team, understanding what the opportunities are and how we might approach that market.

是的。好問題，喬。我會告訴你，我指望海軍/巴黎圣母院在勞動節週末參加比賽，這對我來說有點回到整個體育類比的機會，但我們會看到會發生什麼。當然最近有點令人沮喪。當我們去年進行領導層變動時，我們讓 Chris Musso 為我們擔任這個電氣化角色。雖然我們還沒有發布新聞稿，但團隊已經取得了巨大進步，了解機會是什麼以及我們如何進入該市場。

So I'm not -- I will tell you that my thinking about electric has changed. Certainly, the concern all along for me was this -- the triangle between range, cost and performance. And right now, we believe that triangle is starting to narrow in and be something that we can bring to the powersports consumer that is not only as good but potentially better than some of our current industrial -- I mean, internal combustion engine operations. So we see the opportunity. We expect to be amongst the leaders. The lunacy that you talked about with some of these preorders of vehicles that don't exist, we're probably not going to do that. But what do I know, their valuations are so high, but certainly, expect more from us around electrification in the not-too-distant future.

所以我不是——我會告訴你我對電的想法已經改變了。當然，我一直關心的是這個——範圍、成本和性能之間的三角關係。而現在，我們相信三角開始縮小範圍，成為我們可以帶給動力運動消費者的東西，它不僅和我們目前的一些工業一樣好，而且可能比我們目前的一些工業——我的意思是，內燃機操作更好。所以我們看到了機會。我們希望成為領導者之一。你談到的一些不存在的車輛預購的瘋狂，我們可能不會那樣做。但我知道什麼，他們的估值如此之高，但可以肯定的是，在不久的將來，我們對電氣化的期望會更高。

Okay. With that, that's all the questions we have. We want to thank everyone for participating this morning, and we look forward to talking to you again next quarter. Thanks again, and goodbye.

好的。有了這個，這就是我們所有的問題。我們要感謝大家今天早上的參與，我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。再次感謝，再見。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講，您現在可以斷開連接了。