Polaris Inc (PII) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Polaris First Quarter 2021 Earnings Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Polaris 2021 年第一季財報電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Richard Edwards, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係主管理查德·愛德華茲 (Richard Edwards)。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Chuck, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our first quarter earnings call. A slide presentation is accessible at our website at ir.polaris.com, which has additional information for this morning's call.

謝謝你，查克，大家早安。感謝您參加我們的第一季財報電話會議。您可以在我們的網站 ir.polaris.com 上查看幻燈片演示，其中包含有關今天上午電話會議的更多資訊。

Mike Speetzen, our Interim Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Mack, our Interim Chief Financial Officer, have remarks summarizing the quarter and our revised expectations for the full year. Then we'll take some questions.

Mike Speetzen，我們的臨時執行長；我們的臨時財務長 Bob Mack 發表講話，總結本季以及我們修訂後的全年預期。然後我們會回答一些問題。

During the call, we will be discussing various topics which should be considered forward-looking for the purposes of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results could differ materially from those projections in the forward-looking statements. You can refer to our 2020 10-K for additional details regarding these risks and uncertainties.

在電話會議期間，我們將討論根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》應被視為前瞻性的各種主題。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。您可以參閱我們的 2020 10-K，以了解有關這些風險和不確定性的更多詳細資訊。

All references to the first quarter 2021 guidance are reported on an adjusted non-GAAP basis, unless otherwise noted. Please refer to our Reg G reconciliation schedules at the end of this presentation for the GAAP to non-GAAP adjustments.

除非另有說明，所有對 2021 年第一季指引的引用均按調整後的非公認會計原則報告。請參閱本簡報末尾的 Reg G 調整表，以了解 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整。

Now I'll turn it over to Mike Speetzen, our Interim CEO. Mike?

現在我將把它交給我們的臨時執行長 Mike Speetzen。麥克風？

Thanks, Richard. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Once again, the Polaris team delivered an impressive quarter despite substantial supply chain challenges. Our team has remained focused on meeting the needs of our dealers and customers, which allowed us to again beat expectations this quarter. Before we get started, I wanted to thank the entire Polaris team for their focus, dedication and execution this past quarter was truly impressive.

謝謝，理查。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。儘管供應鏈面臨巨大挑戰，北極星團隊再次交付了令人印象深刻的季度業績。我們的團隊始終專注於滿足經銷商和客戶的需求，這使我們在本季再次超出了預期。在我們開始之前，我要感謝整個 Polaris 團隊，他們在上個季度的專注、奉獻和執行確實令人印象深刻。

Consumer interest in powersports continued at record levels throughout the quarter, with strong growth coming from both existing customers and new customers. I'm pleased to report that our ORV market share gains continued, which we expect to be an ongoing trend for the year. I'm also pleased to report that motorcycles, snowmobiles and boats also had strong retail demand and gained share in Q1.

整個季度，消費者對動力運動的興趣繼續保持創紀錄的水平，現有客戶和新客戶均出現強勁增長。我很高興地報告，我們的 ORV 市佔率持續成長，我們預計這將成為今年的持續趨勢。我還很高興地報告，摩托車、雪地摩托車和船隻也有強勁的零售需求，並在第一季度獲得了份額。

The strong growth we are experiencing is not only in our North American wholegood retail. Our PG&A business grew nearly 50% during the quarter, with all segments and categories up significantly year-over-year. And our international business was also strong, with sales increasing 59% as countries impacted by the pandemic slowly began to reopen.

我們正在經歷的強勁成長不僅體現在北美的 WholeGood 零售業。我們的 PG&A 業務在本季成長了近 50%，所有細分市場和類別均較去年同期大幅成長。我們的國際業務也很強勁，隨著受疫情影響的國家慢慢開始重新開放，銷售額成長了 59%。

Q1 results reflect an all-out effort by the Polaris team to overcome numerous challenges. We continue to operate our plants at maximum supply chain-constraint capacity and utilize every available tactic at our disposal to produce the products our customers were demanding.

第一季的業績反映了北極星隊克服重重挑戰的全力努力。我們繼續以最大供應鏈限制能力運作我們的工廠，並利用我們掌握的一切可用策略來生產客戶所需的產品。

While our dealer inventory remains below optimal levels, we largely met demand and expertly navigated supply chain constraints. To do so, logistics, commodities and rework costs have increased substantially. We are managing the cost as best we can and, where it makes strategic sense, have raised prices to compensate for this inflation.

雖然我們的經銷商庫存仍低於最佳水平，但我們基本上滿足了需求並熟練地應對了供應鏈限制。為此，物流、商品和返工成本大幅增加。我們正在盡最大努力管理成本，並在具有戰略意義的情況下提高價格以補償通貨膨脹。

And yet, despite these headwinds, given the overall strong and better-than-expected performance seen in Q1 and continuing into April, we are raising our full year guidance. Bob will give you more details shortly.

然而，儘管存在這些不利因素，鑑於第一季以及持續到四月份的整體強勁且好於預期的業績，我們仍上調了全年指引。鮑勃很快就會向您提供更多詳細資訊。

First quarter North American retail sales were up a robust 70%, continuing the unprecedented levels of growth. The comparables were easier in the last 2 weeks of March when the pandemic drove an abrupt shutdown of commerce in 2020. Even after adjusting for that impact, our retail was up an impressive 50-plus percent for the quarter. We continue to see an expanding customer base, with new customers growing 70% in Q1.

第一季北美零售額強勁成長 70%，持續維持前所未有的成長水準。 3 月的最後兩週，疫情導致 2020 年商業突然停擺，可比性比較好。即使在調整了這一影響之後，我們的零售額在本季度仍增長了 50% 以上，令人印象深刻。我們繼續看到客戶群不斷擴大，第一季新客戶成長了 70%。

We are especially proud to see success in our strategy to further diversify our customer base. While many of these new customers have been in powersports for only a short time, our early data indicates a strong intent of these new customers to stay with the sport and a stronger intent to purchase another vehicle versus what we have historically seen, which is a promising indicator to support ongoing strong retail. And the continued growth in sales to our existing owners, which increased an impressive 40% year-over-year, reinforces our confidence that these customers will return.

我們特別自豪地看到我們進一步多元化客戶群的策略取得了成功。雖然這些新客戶中的許多人參與動力運動的時間很短，但我們的早期數據表明，與我們歷史上看到的情況相比，這些新客戶有強烈的意願繼​​續參與這項運動，並且有更強烈的購買另一輛車的意願，這是有希望的指標支持持續強勁的零售業。我們現有業主的銷售額持續成長，年增 40%，令人印象深刻，這增強了我們對這些客戶將回歸的信心。

As I indicated earlier, our ORV business gained over 4 percentage points of market share in the first quarter. Both Indian and Slingshot's first quarter retail was strong as well, collectively finishing up over 70% and market share increased about 3 percentage points.

正如我之前指出的，我們的 ORV 業務在第一季獲得了超過 4 個百分點的市場份額。 Indian 和 Slingshot 第一季的零售也很強勁，合計成長超過 70%，市佔率增加了約 3 個百分點。

Boats retail was also strong, tracking ahead of the industry based on preliminary data.

船舶零售也很強勁，根據初步數據領先產業。

Snowmobile sales were strong as well, with retail up low 20% range for the first quarter. Let me spend a minute talking about the strong performance of our Snowmobile business.

雪地摩托車的銷售也很強勁，第一季零售量成長了 20%。讓我花一點時間談談我們雪地摩托車業務的強勁表現。

While our Snowmobile business is one of our smaller product lines today, it is where we started over 66 years ago in Northern Minnesota. The North American snowmobile industry concluded its strongest season in over a decade, with industry retail up approximately 16%. Polaris retail eclipsed the market, growing in the mid-20% range, resulting in market share gains of over 2 points for the season, the best share position in 16 years.

雖然我們的雪地摩托車業務目前只是我們規模較小的產品線之一，但它是我們 66 多年前在明尼蘇達州北部起步的地方。北美雪地摩托車產業結束了十多年來最強勁的銷售季，產業零售量成長了約 16%。 Polaris 零售業務的成長幅度在 20% 左右，令市場黯然失色，導致本季市佔率成長超過 2 個百分點，這是 16 年來最好的份額地位。

We are seeing tremendous new customer growth in Snowmobiles. During the 2020, 2021 selling season, new customers represented over 60% of the sales growth, nearly double the rate from the prior season ending March 2020.

我們看到雪地摩托車的新客戶數量大幅增加。在 2020 年和 2021 年銷售季，新客戶佔銷售成長的 60% 以上，幾乎是截至 2020 年 3 月的上一銷售季的兩倍。

During the quarter, we held our annual spring dealer meeting and, while virtual, it was one of the best attended meetings in over a decade. Attendance was up almost 80% compared to 2020. During the meeting, we introduced 22 new snowmobiles on the revolutionary Rider-First Matryx Platform, which delivers industry-leading ride and handling, both on and off trail.

在本季度，我們舉行了年度春季經銷商會議，雖然是虛擬的，但它是十多年來參加人數最多的會議之一。與2020 年相比，出席人數增加了近80%。在會議期間，我們推出了22 款採用革命性的Rider-First Matryx 平台的新型雪地摩托車，該平台無論是在道路上還是越野下都能提供業界領先的駕駛和操控性能。

Additionally, we introduced the company's first turbo-charged 2-stroke engine, the Patriot Boost. This new engine uses proprietary SmartBoost technology for unrivaled combustion stability, enabling 10% more power at sea level and 50% more power at 10,000 feet than our current 850 Patriot engine.

此外，我們也推出了該公司首款渦輪增壓二行程引擎 Patriot Boost。這款新引擎採用專有的 SmartBoost 技術，具有無與倫比的燃燒穩定性，與我們目前的 850 Patriot 引擎相比，在海平面上的功率增加 10%，在 10,000 英尺的高度增加 50%。

The strong model year lineup, along with continued demand from new customers entering the sport, has generated demand we haven't seen in years. In fact, our SnowCheck orders, which concluded a couple of weeks ago, will make up over half of our Snowmobile build this year, eliminating much of the uncertainty around in-season sales required later in the year.

強大的車型陣容，以及進入這項運動的新客戶的持續需求，產生了我們多年來從未見過的需求。事實上，我們幾週前完成的 SnowCheck 訂單將占我們今年雪地摩托車製造量的一半以上，消除了今年稍後所需的旺季銷售的大部分不確定性。

As you well know, strong retail demand in all of our businesses has continued to pressure our ability to fill the dealer channel. Inventory levels declined further on a sequential basis and were down 71% year-over-year, with ORV realizing the most significant decline. Supplier constraints and logistics delays remain the ongoing bottlenecks, and we are working all available options to ease the supply chain strain as quickly as possible. I'll talk more about our efforts to manage the situation shortly.

眾所周知，我們所有業務的強勁零售需求持續對我們填補經銷商通路的能力構成壓力。庫存水準環比進一步下降，年減 71%，其中 ORV 降幅最為顯著。供應商限制和物流延誤仍然是持續存在的瓶頸，我們正在採取一切可用的方案來盡快緩解供應鏈壓力。我很快就會多談論我們為控制局勢所做的努力。

As we've discussed in the past, presold vehicles continue to be a lever that our dealers can utilize to ensure they capture the sale. This is enabled by our advanced manufacturing capability which provides visibility into and flexibility of our production plan. This is just one of many examples of how the team is navigating this challenging environment to ensure dealers and consumers get the vehicles they want.

正如我們過去所討論的，預售車輛仍然是我們的經銷商可以用來確保他們獲得銷售的槓桿。這是透過我們先進的製造能力實現的，它為我們的生產計劃提供了可見性和靈活性。這只是團隊如何應對這個充滿挑戰的環境以確保經銷商和消費者獲得他們想要的車輛的眾多例子之一。

Given the current environment and our expectations that the supply chain constraints may not improve significantly until late in 2021, we anticipate it will likely take until sometime in 2022 to return dealer inventory to targeted levels. That said, our ability to continue to expertly manage the supply chain through 2021 positions us well to meet consumer demand.

鑑於當前環境以及我們預計供應鏈限制可能要到 2021 年末才能顯著改善，我們預計經銷商庫存可能需要到 2022 年某個時候才能恢復到目標水準。也就是說，我們有能力在 2021 年之前繼續專業地管理供應鏈，這使我們能夠很好地滿足消費者的需求。

The number of suppliers impacted by COVID-related constraints has been somewhat of a moving target. The Polaris team has been doing a tremendous job of keeping product flowing to fulfill demand by expediting shipping, working directly with suppliers on their staffing and supply base, rebalancing in-sourced and outsourced manufacturing, using alternative logistics lanes to shorten lead times, staging Polaris employees at ports to expedite customs clearance and optimizing the flow and location of inventory to fill backlog as quick as possible.

受新冠疫情相關限制影響的供應商數量在某種程度上是一個不斷變化的目標。北極星團隊在保持產品流動以滿足需求方面做出了巨大的努力，包括加快運輸、直接與供應商就人員配置和供應基礎進行合作、重新平衡內購和外包製造、使用替代物流通道縮短交貨時間、安排北極星港口員工加快清關速度，優化庫存流程與位置，盡快填補積壓。

Additionally, we're adding capacity at select locations, including Monterrey, Mexico for RZR and GENERAL; Elkhart and Syracuse, Indiana for Bennington and Hurricane; Rigby, Idaho for climb apparel and Wilmington, Ohio for PG&A distribution. We will be evaluating additional expansion needs with our Board as the year progresses based on the trajectory of current demand. These capacity additions, along with the anticipated supply chain improvements later in the year, will allow us to further ramp production in the coming quarters. However, as I said before, we do not see dealer inventory returning to targeted levels until sometime in 2021.

此外，我們還在選定地點增加運力，包括墨西哥蒙特雷的 RZR 和 GENERAL；印第安納州埃爾克哈特和錫拉丘茲代表本寧頓和颶風；愛達荷州里格比負責攀岩服裝的分銷，俄亥俄州威爾明頓負責 PG&A 的分銷。隨著今年的進展，我們將根據當前需求的軌跡與董事會一起評估額外的擴張需求。這些產能的增加，加上預計今年稍後供應鏈的改善，將使我們能夠在未來幾季進一步提高產量。然而，正如我之前所說，我們預計經銷商庫存要到 2021 年某個時候才會恢復到目標水準。

Despite these distractions, I'm happy to report that we are still on track with our supply chain transformation and that the savings are being realized slightly ahead of plan. This is an incredibly important strategic initiative for us with the goal of identifying suppliers that can provide the best quality, delivery, service, technology and value. We have now made all sourcing decisions for 2 of the 4 waves, and we kicked off the third wave in February through a virtual supplier conference and are optimistic about the continued success of the program.

儘管有這些幹擾，我很高興地向大家報告，我們的供應鏈轉型仍在正軌上，並且節省的成本略高於計劃。這對我們來說是一項極為重要的策略性舉措，其目標是尋找能夠提供最佳品質、交付、服務、技術和價值的供應商。我們現在已經為 4 波中的 2 波做出了所有採購決策，並且我們在 2 月透過虛擬供應商會議啟動了第三波，並對該計劃的持續成功感到樂觀。

By the end of the year, we expect to be almost halfway to our goal of approximately $200 million of gross savings. Currently, these savings are partially offsetting increased costs from logistics, commodities, rework and tariffs. The good news here is when these costs abate, our sourcing savings will continue.

到今年年底，我們預計將實現約 2 億美元總節省的目標的一半。目前，這些節省部分抵消了物流、商品、重工和關稅增加的成本。好消息是，當這些成本降低時，我們的採購成本將繼續節省。

Our sports electrification is a very real opportunity, appealing to current as well as new consumers. As we look into the future, EV technology will continue to mature and grow, both in terms of performance capabilities and consumer awareness and interest. Our efforts today will set the stage and enable us to be well positioned for the future.

我們的運動電氣化是一個非常真實的機會，對當前和新的消費者都有吸引力。展望未來，電動車技術將在性能和消費者意識和興趣方面不斷成熟和發展。我們今天的努力將為我們奠定基礎，使我們能夠為未來做好準備。

Our revved up strategy aims to position Polaris as the industry leader in electrification, both through the introduction of new vehicles and expansion of current offerings. Our goal is to offer consumers an electric vehicle option within each of our core product segments over the next 5 years.

我們加快策略的目標是透過推出新車和擴展現有產品，將北極星定位為電氣化產業的領導者。我們的目標是在未來 5 年內，在我們的每個核心產品領域為消費者提供電動車選擇。

Last fall, we partnered with Zero Motorcycles, a global leader in electric motorcycle powertrains and technology, to bring to market an all-new 2022 electric RANGER by December 2021. This all new electric powertrain will elevate the RANGER platform to a whole new level of capability, durability and performance.

去年秋天，我們與電動摩托車動力系統和技術領域的全球領導者Zero Motorcycles 合作，於2021 年12 月之前將全新2022 年電動RANGER 推向市場。這款全新電動動力總成將提升RANGER 平台到全新水平能力、耐用性和性能。

We're also making investments to grow our current EV offerings with the co-development of a fully autonomous low-speed shuttle using our GEM vehicles, coupled with Optimus Ride's full stack of sensors and software to enable fully autonomous shuttles. The vehicles are expected to roll out in the second half of 2023.

我們也進行投資，透過使用我們的 GEM 車輛共同開發全自動低速接駁車，再加上 Optimus Ride 的全套感測器和軟體，來發展我們目前的電動車產品，以實現全自動接駁車。這些車輛預計將於 2023 年下半年推出。

As we move through the year, watch for additional details on our revved up strategy in the upcoming RANGER product launch.

隨著這一年的到來，請關注我們在即將推出的 RANGER 產品中加速策略的更多細節。

I'll now turn it over to Bob Mack, who will summarize our first quarter results and our updated expectations for 2021. Bob?

我現在將其交給鮑勃麥克 (Bob Mack)，他將總結我們第一季的業績以及我們對 2021 年的最新預期。鮑伯？

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. As you just heard, our first quarter far exceeded our expectations given the ongoing strong retail demand across the portfolio. The Polaris team has met the challenges of supply chain shortages, logistics delays by working tirelessly with our suppliers, executing significant rework and coordinating with our logistics providers to deliver on our dealer and customers' expectations.

謝謝麥克，大家早安。正如您剛剛聽到的，鑑於整個投資組合持續強勁的零售需求，我們的第一季遠遠超出了我們的預期。北極星團隊透過與我們的供應商不懈合作、執行重大返工並與我們的物流提供者協調來滿足經銷商和客戶的期望，應對了供應鏈短缺、物流延誤的挑戰。

First quarter sales were up 39% on a GAAP and adjusted basis versus the prior year. Sales were up significantly for all segments of our business, driven by the ongoing strength in powersports, the boating industry and in our adjacent markets and Aftermarket segments.

以 GAAP 和調整後的基礎計算，第一季銷售額與去年同期相比成長了 39%。在動力運動、划船產業以及鄰近市場和售後市場領域持續強勁的推動下，我們所有業務領域的銷售額均大幅成長。

First quarter earnings per share on a GAAP basis was $2.11. Adjusted earnings per share was $2.30, which was up significantly over last year's first quarter. The results were driven by increased volume across the portfolio, lower promotional costs and operating expense leverage during the quarter.

第一季以 GAAP 計算的每股收益為 2.11 美元。調整後每股收益為 2.30 美元，較去年第一季大幅成長。這項業績的推動因素包括本季整個投資組合銷售的增加、促銷成本的降低和營運費用槓桿。

Adjusted gross margins were up 352 basis points year-over-year primarily due to the lower promotional costs driven by the strong retail demand and lower floor-plan financing costs as a result of the low dealer inventory levels. Supply chain constraints were an ongoing pressure point to gross margins as logistics and rework remained high. And as we previously indicated, tariff costs were higher during the quarter as the onetime exemptions and refunds we saw in 2020 largely ended.

調整後毛利率年增 352 個基點，主要是由於強勁的零售需求推動促銷成本降低，以及經銷商庫存水準較低導致平面圖融資成本降低。由於物流和返工率仍然很高，供應鏈限制一直是毛利率的壓力點。正如我們之前指出的，由於 2020 年的一次性豁免和退款基本上已經結束，本季的關稅成本較高。

Operating expenses as a percentage of sales were down 584 basis points as we realized leverage from the strong sales growth and the timing of some R&D expenses and stock-based compensation costs being delayed into the coming quarters.

營運費用佔銷售額的百分比下降了 584 個基點，因為我們意識到強勁的銷售成長帶來的槓桿作用，以及一些研發費用和股票薪酬成本推遲到未來幾季的時間。

Income from financial services declined 18% during the quarter as income from the Polaris Acceptance joint venture, which dealers use to finance their inventory, continue to be down due to the lower level of inventory in the channel.

本季金融服務收入下降了 18%，原因是通路庫存水準較低，經銷商用來為其庫存融資的 Polaris Acceptance 合資企業的收入持續下降。

Foreign exchange also had a positive impact on our quarterly results, primarily driven by the Canadian dollar and the euro.

外匯也對我們的季度業績產生了積極影響，這主要是由加元和歐元推動的。

From a segment reporting perspective, all segments reported increased sales for the quarter. ORV & Snowmobiles increased 50%. Motorcycles increased 31%. Global Adjacent Markets was up 27%. Aftermarket increased 14%. And Boats increased 29% for the quarter.

從分部報告的角度來看，所有分部均報告本季銷售額有所成長。 ORV 和雪地摩托車增加了 50%。摩托車成長了31%。全球鄰近市場上漲 27%。售後市場成長14%。本季船隻成長了 29%。

Our segments benefited from lower promotional costs, which has decreased considerably across the powersports industry, given the high demand and the lack of product in the channel.

我們的細分市場受益於較低的促銷成本，考慮到通路中的高需求和產品缺乏，整個動力運動產業的促銷成本已大幅下降。

And aside from Boats, all powersports segments also experienced a negative product mix during the quarter as supply chain constraints caused a shift in the types of products we were able to produce.

除了船隻外，所有動力運動細分市場在本季也經歷負面的產品組合，因為供應鏈限制導致我們能夠生產的產品類型發生變化。

Two additional highlights I want to point out are International and Parts, Garments & Accessories businesses.

我想指出的另外兩個亮點是國際業務和零件、服裝及配件業務。

International sales were up 59% during the quarter. All segments and regions experienced increased sales during the quarter, mostly driven by strong ORV, snow, motorcycle and PG&A sales. About 10 points of the growth came from improved currency rates.

本季國際銷售額成長 59%。本季所有細分市場和地區的銷售額均有所成長，這主要得益於 ORV、雪地、摩托車和 PG&A 銷售的強勁成長。大約 10 個百分點的成長來自於匯率的改善。

And our Parts, Garments & Accessories sales increased 49% during the quarter. All segments and product categories grew significantly during the quarter, driven by strong retail and installed base demand.

本季我們的零件、服裝和配件銷售額成長了 49%。在強勁的零售和安裝基礎需求的推動下，本季所有細分市場和產品類別均大幅成長。

Moving on to our revised guidance for 2021. Given the stronger-than-anticipated performance in the first quarter, we have increased our total company sales growth guidance and now expect sales to increase in the 18% to 21% range for the year, up from the 13% to 16% we guided in January.

接下來是我們修訂後的 2021 年指引。鑑於第一季的業績強於預期，我們提高了公司總銷售額成長指引，目前預計今年銷售額將成長 18% 至 21%，從我們一月份指導的13% 到16%。

We are also increasing our full year adjusted earnings per share guidance for 2021 and now expect earnings to be in the range of $9 to $9.25 per diluted share. The increase is driven by higher volume, increased pricing through growth, MSRP changes and continued lower promotional spending and floor-plan financing costs in addition to improved foreign exchange rates and operating expense leverage. These positives are, however, being partially offset by continued manufacturing inefficiencies and higher logistics costs in addition to commodity and component pricing pressures driven by supply chain constraints.

我們也提高了 2021 年全年調整後每股盈餘指引，目前預計稀釋後每股盈餘將在 9 美元至 9.25 美元之間。這一成長的推動因素包括銷售增加、成長帶來的定價提高、建議零售價的變化、促銷支出和平面圖融資成本的持續降低，以及外匯匯率和營運費用槓桿的改善。然而，除了供應鏈限制帶來的商品和零件定價壓力外，這些正面因素也被持續的製造效率低下和物流成本上升所部分抵消。

While we are pleased with the strong demand we are experiencing, it continues to stress our supply chain as our supply partners attempt to match our demand trends. This is putting additional pressure on gross profit margins for the remainder of the year. We now anticipate that gross profit margins will be down 60 to 90 basis points, primarily driven by ongoing negative product mix we saw in the first quarter, along with increased logistics and manufacturing inefficiencies due to the high level of rework in our factories.

雖然我們對目前的強勁需求感到滿意，但隨著我們的供應夥伴試圖滿足我們的需求趨勢，它繼續給我們的供應鏈帶來壓力。這給今年剩餘時間的毛利率帶來了額外的壓力。我們現在預計毛利率將下降 60 至 90 個基點，這主要是由於我們在第一季度看到的持續的負面產品組合，以及由於工廠返工率高而導致的物流和製造效率低下。

Additionally, we are seeing increases in commodity prices that we expect to hit our P&L beginning in the second quarter. As a result, we are implementing price increases to help offset these pressures. However, we expect it will take several quarters for the 2 to converge.

此外，我們也看到大宗商品價格上漲，預計從第二季開始將影響我們的損益。因此，我們正在實施漲價來幫助抵消這些壓力。然而，我們預計兩者需要幾個季度才能收斂。

And as Mike indicated, our supply chain initiative, now in its third year, will help offset some of the additional supply chain costs.

正如麥克所指出的，我們的供應鏈計畫現在已進入第三年，將有助於抵消一些額外的供應鏈成本。

While our gross profit margins are expected to be down for the year, as I stated on our last earnings call, if you exclude the impact of tariffs and supply chain disruptions, our gross profit margin rate would be up over 200 basis points compared to last year.

雖然我們今年的毛利率預計會下降，但正如我在上次財報電話會議上所說，如果排除關稅和供應鏈中斷的影響，我們的毛利率將比去年上升 200 個基點以上。

Adjusted operating expenses are now expected to improve 80 to 100 basis points as a percentage of sales as sales growth outpaces operating expense growth. Our guidance for operating expenses in dollars for the full year hasn't changed. The improvement in operating expenses as a percent of sales is entirely driven by the escalating sales growth anticipated this year.

由於銷售成長超過營運費用成長，調整後的營運費用佔銷售額的百分比預計將提高 80 至 100 個基點。我們對全年營業費用（以美元計）的指導沒有改變。營業費用佔銷售額百分比的改善完全是由今年預期的銷售成長不斷升級所推動的。

Income from financial services is now expected to be down in the high single digits percent, driven entirely by the expectation that dealer inventory levels will remain low. Retail financing availability remains at acceptable levels.

目前預計金融服務收入將下降高個位數百分比，這完全是由於經銷商庫存水準將保持在較低水準的預期。零售融資可用性仍處於可接受的水平。

Guidance for the remainder of the P&L items remains materially unchanged from our previously issued guidance.

其餘損益項目的指導與我們先前發布的指導基本保持不變。

Given our strong performance in Q1, our expectation for sales and earnings per share are relatively consistent across each of the next 3 quarters. Seasonality of products will have some impact but, in general, we will produce -- be producing the maximum number of vehicles our supply chain will allow.

鑑於我們第一季的強勁表現，我們對未來三個季度銷售額和每股收益的預期相對一致。產品的季節性會產生一些影響，但總的來說，我們將生產供應鏈允許的最大數量的車輛。

As I mentioned earlier, we expect supplier constraints to continue to negatively impact our sales mix. Additionally, higher commodity costs will begin to materialize in Q2 and are expected to remain for the balance of the year. Both of these factors will result in lower gross profit margins as compared to the first quarter.

正如我之前提到的，我們預期供應商限制將繼續對我們的銷售組合產生負面影響。此外，商品成本上升將在第二季開始顯現，並預計將持續到今年剩餘時間。這兩個因素都將導致毛利率較第一季下降。

We expect operating expenses in each of the remaining 3 quarters to be approximately 10% to 15% above Q1 given the timing of spending.

考慮到支出時間，我們預計剩餘 3 個季度的營運支出將比第一季高出約 10% 至 15%。

Moving on to sales expectations by segment. The increase in total company sales is driven by the sales increases in all of our businesses, given the strong first quarter demand and significant order backlog. As we have stated, the gating factor in meeting the current demand and beginning to fill the dealer channel is the ability of our supply chain and the logistics network to be able to deliver materials to the factories. Our operations and sourcing teams continue to work diligently to maximize production levels.

接下來是按細分市場劃分的銷售預期。鑑於第一季強勁的需求和大量的訂單積壓，公司總銷售額的成長是由我們所有業務的銷售成長所推動的。正如我們所說，滿足當前需求並開始填補經銷商通路的關鍵因素是我們的供應鏈和物流網路能夠將材料運送到工廠的能力。我們的營運和採購團隊繼續努力工作，以最大限度地提高生產水平。

First quarter operating cash flow finished at $56 million compared to a negative $71 million in the first quarter of last year. While our first quarter is typically a heavy cash use quarter given the working capital timing, our strong cash from earnings was able to overcome the cash needs and provide positive cash from operations.

第一季營運現金流為 5,600 萬美元，而去年第一季為負 7,100 萬美元。雖然考慮到營運資金的時機，我們的第一季通常是現金使用較多的季度，但我們來自收益的強勁現金能夠克服現金需求並提供積極的營運現金。

Our cash flow performance expectations for the full year remain unchanged as we work to rebuild dealer and factory inventory to more acceptable levels.

我們對全年現金流表現的預期保持不變，因為我們致力於將經銷商和工廠庫存重建到更可接受的水平。

Our bank leverage ratio improved sequentially to approximately 1.3x as our debt levels continue to decline as anticipated.

隨著我們的債務水準繼續按預期下降，我們的銀行槓桿率連續改善至約 1.3 倍。

Our expectations for use of cash for 2021, outside investing in the business, remains a combination of debt reduction and share repurchases. During the first quarter, we spent almost $300 million on share repurchases. Of the $300 million spent, $130 million was generated from the exercise of options. This helps minimize the dilution of our shares. We anticipate continuing to buy back shares throughout the remainder of the year, subject to market conditions and available authorizations.

我們對 2021 年現金使用（業務外部投資）的預期仍然是債務削減和股票回購的結合。第一季度，我們花了近 3 億美元用於股票回購。在 3 億美元的支出中，1.3 億美元是透過行使選擇權產生的。這有助於最大限度地減少我們股份的稀釋。我們預計將在今年剩餘時間內繼續回購股票，具體取決於市場狀況和可用授權。

Our expectations for capital expenditures of approximately $250 million remain unchanged.

我們對約 2.5 億美元資本支出的預期保持不變。

And on January 28, the Board of Directors approved a 2% increase in the regular quarterly cash dividend, which is the 26th consecutive year of Polaris increasing its dividend.

並於1月28日，董事會批准將定期季度現金股利增加2%，這是北極星連續第26年增加股利。

With that, I will now turn it over to Mike for some final comments.

現在，我將把它交給麥克，徵求一些最後的意見。

Thanks, Bob. During the quarter, we experienced broad-based retail strength across all of our businesses. New customers continue to drive significant growth during the quarter, supplementing strong demand from our dedicated installed base.

謝謝，鮑伯。在本季度，我們所有業務的零售實力均表現強勁。新客戶在本季持續推動顯著成長，補充了我們專用安裝基礎的強勁需求。

Our supply chain's ability to keep pace with demand trends will remain an ongoing challenge for longer than originally anticipated. But our size, agility and seasoned Polaris team gives me confidence in our ability to match supply with demand better than anyone in our industry.

我們的供應鏈跟上需求趨勢的能力將在比最初預期更長的時間內仍然是一個持續的挑戰。但我們的規模、敏捷性和經驗豐富的 Polaris 團隊讓我相信我們有能力比業內任何人更好地匹配供需。

The company is in the best financial position in years, with a strong cash position, debt below our targeted leverage ratios and all segments expected to grow sales, improve profitability and gain market share in 2021. Together, we continue to advance toward our near- and long-term strategic and financial targets, and I couldn't be more thankful to be leading such an outstanding and talented team.

該公司處於多年來最好的財務狀況，現金狀況強勁，債務低於我們的目標槓桿率，所有部門預計將在2021 年實現銷售額增長、提高盈利能力並獲得市場份額。我們將共同努力，繼續朝著我們的目標邁進。以及長期策略和財務目標，我非常感激能夠領導這樣一支優秀且才華橫溢的團隊。

With that, I'll turn it over to Chuck to open the line for questions.

這樣，我會將其轉交給查克，以打開提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question will come from James Hardiman with Wedbush Securities.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將由 Wedbush 證券公司的 James Hardiman 提出。

And great job on, obviously, a tough quarter, guys. So similar to last quarter, my new favorite slide or graph is this capacity utilization graph. Maybe walk us through that in a little bit more detail. This is Slide 8 I'm referring to. When I look at that, this critical question of inventory, it seems like you think that capacity will expand in the second quarter and maybe meet demand, that you'll be able to build a little bit of dealer inventory in the third quarter, but then in 4Q, we're going to fall meaningfully short of that again, and we'll probably finish the year in a worse inventory position than we started. I don't know if I'm reading too much into that. There's a lot going on, information trying to reconvey there, but maybe walk us through the key assumptions there.

夥計們，顯然，這是一個艱難的季度，做得很好。與上季類似，我最喜歡的新投影片或圖表是容量利用率圖。也許可以更詳細地引導我們完成這個過程。這是我指的幻燈片 8。當我看到這個庫存的關鍵問題時，您似乎認為產能將在第二季度擴大並可能滿足需求，您將能夠在第三季度建立一點經銷商庫存，但是然後在第四季度，我們將再次大幅低於這一目標，我們可能會在今年結束時庫存狀況比年初更糟。我不知道我是否讀得太多了。有很多事情正在發生，訊息試圖在那裡重新傳達，但也許可以引導我們了解那裡的關鍵假設。

Yes. Thanks, James. A couple of things. We put that red line on the graph to highlight the fact that we are running the factories at full capacity, but we use the word supply chain-constraint for a reason, because we're dealing with producing vehicles partially complete. For example, when foam became a huge issue, we're rolling vehicles off the line without seats and then we're reworking those vehicles. Our rework rates are pretty high. But the team is doing a really good job of making sure that we're doing that in a high-quality manner.

是的。謝謝，詹姆斯。有幾件事。我們在圖表上畫紅線是為了強調我們正在滿載運營工廠這一事實，但我們使用「供應鏈限制」這個詞是有原因的，因為我們正在生產部分完成的車輛。例如，當泡棉成為一個大問題時，我們將沒有座椅的車輛下線，然後對這些車輛進行重新加工。我們的返工率相當高。但團隊做得非常好，確保我們以高品質的方式做到這一點。

Really, the supply chain is what's constraining us right now. I will tell you, the team, as I indicated in my prepared remarks, has done an outstanding job. Supplier issues with semiconductors come up, we're knocking them down. The team has been incredibly agile and going after that.

事實上，供應鏈是目前限制我們的因素。我會告訴你，正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣，團隊做得非常出色。半導體供應商問題出現，我們正在解決它們。團隊非常敏捷並不斷追求這一目標。

We will make progress on dealer inventory from where we are today. It will increase as we go through the year based on the retail expectations that we have right now. And that's really going to be predicated on us continuing to push these supplier issues down and get the manufacturing ramped up as much as we can.

我們將在經銷商庫存方面取得進展。根據我們目前的零售預期，隨著今年的發展，這個數字將會增加。這實際上取決於我們繼續減少這些供應商問題並盡可能提高生產量。

Some of the capacity that's coming online is going to help us here in the second half in terms of just being able to manage and digest the volume. But overall, I feel really good about where the team is at. And we can't see into the future and understand what the issues are going to be around potential supply chain problems, but I'll tell you, based on what the team has done thus far, I've got a lot of confidence.

下半年上線的一些容量將在管理和消化容量方面為我們提供幫助。但總的來說，我對球隊的現狀感覺非常好。我們無法預見未來並了解潛在的供應鏈問題將會出現什麼問題，但我會告訴你，根據團隊迄今為止所做的工作，我有很大的信心。

I made some comments in the first quarter in the January call around -- we are not going to try and save money in the face of significant consumer demand. And so whether it's logistics or supplier work that we're doing, we're going to put the investment, the money, and you're seeing that come through in the margin profile. The good news is that this will abate at some point in time and we'll see that favorability come through from a margin perspective.

我在一月份第一季的電話會議上發表了一些評論——面對巨大的消費者需求，我們不會試圖省錢。因此，無論是我們正在做的物流或供應商工作，我們都會投入投資和資金，你會看到這些都反映在利潤狀況中。好消息是，這種情況會在某個時候減弱，我們會從利潤角度看到這種好感度。

That's really helpful. And then maybe just a quick follow-up, if I may. Selling and marketing, at least versus where the Street was, was a big beat. Some of that is presumably that you have this supply demand imbalance that's pretty favorable right now. I guess how do you think about that particular line item for 2021? And then what's sustainable as we go forward, I don't know, whether on an absolute dollar basis or a percentage of sales? Like what does that line item look like once we're past this crazy phase that we're in?

這真的很有幫助。如果可以的話，也許只是快速跟進。銷售和行銷，至少與華爾街相比，是一個很大的優勢。其中部分原因可能是目前的供需不平衡狀況相當有利。我想您如何看待 2021 年的特定訂單項目？然後，我不知道，隨著我們前進，什麼是可持續的，無論是以絕對美元計算還是按銷售額百分比計算？一旦我們度過了這個瘋狂的階段，該訂單項目會是什麼樣子？

Sure. James, Bob. So I think if you think about OpEx, really, the impact you see in the Q1 is really one of timing. So we're forecasting expenses for the year to be flat and we feel good about that. That's a reasonable level to use to run the business. So the 80 to 100 basis point benefit is really just based on the sales leverage.

當然。詹姆斯、鮑伯.因此，我認為如果您考慮營運支出，您在第一季看到的影響確實是時機問題。因此，我們預測今年的支出將持平，我們對此感到滿意。這是用於經營業務的合理水準。因此，80 到 100 個基點的收益實際上只是基於銷售槓桿。

The timing issues in the quarter, which sort of turn around later in the year, are mostly some delayed spending on the engineering side, just as different projects move around, and then some stock-based comp that normally would have been recognized in Q1 that hasn't been recognized yet, that will show up later in the year. So they're not things that will repeat themselves in the future. So it's kind of a 2021 anomaly. So I think you should think about the OpEx being flat for the year in dollars.

本季度的時間安排問題（在今年稍後會出現好轉）主要是工程方面的一些延遲支出，就像不同的項目移動一樣，然後是一些通常會在第一季度得到認可的基於股票的補償目前還沒有得到認可，今年晚些時候就會出現。所以它們不會在未來重演。所以這在 2021 年是一種反常現象。所以我認為你應該考慮以美元計算的今年營運支出持平。

Got it. But should we assume a step-up after this year? I mean, to some degree, for sales to be up as much as they are and that OpEx line to be pretty flat, I'm assuming that at least a portion of that is a function of the promotional environment, a favorable promotional environment we find ourselves in, which doesn't seem like it's really sustainable.

知道了。但我們是否應該假設今年之後會有所提升？我的意思是，在某種程度上，為了使銷售額盡可能增長，而營運支出線相當平坦，我假設其中至少有一部分是促銷環境的函數，這是我們有利的促銷環境。發現我們自己陷入了這樣的境地，這似乎並不真正可持續。

No. I mean, James, the promotional stuff falls through the gross profit. And Bob can certainly talk about some of the dynamics relative to that as we look out into the future quarters when we think promo will start coming back.

不，我的意思是，詹姆斯，促銷品不計入毛利。當我們展望未來幾個季度時，當我們認為促銷將開始回歸時，鮑勃當然可以談論與此相關的一些動態。

I think Bob hit it, it's timing. As we go forward, the sales and marketing investment is something that we're going to continue to have as a high priority. The work we've done around attracting new customers is incredibly important.

我認為鮑勃擊中了它，現在正是時候。隨著我們的前進，銷售和行銷投資是我們將繼續高度重視的事情。我們在吸引新客戶方面所做的工作非常重要。

What I will say is the team has gotten even more efficient. The investments we made around our customer relationship management system, the data analytics tools. I was walking through with the team yesterday, the work that they had done around the new customers, and we go back and we measure their repurchase rate in the next 3 months, and we do that on a 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 5-year, 10-year basis. And the amount of data and analytics that they have, that helps us, because now we can take that data and be a lot smarter about where we do target promotion as well as where we're spending money, whether it's media campaigns or advertising on TV. And I think that will continue to be an efficiency for us. But I think on an absolute dollar basis, it will continue to grow into the future.

我要說的是，團隊變得更有效率。我們圍繞著客戶關係管理系統和數據分析工具進行的投資。昨天我和團隊一起回顧了他們圍繞新客戶所做的工作，然後我們回去衡量他們在接下來的 3 個月內的回購率，我們在 3 個月、6 個月、 1年、5年、 10年為基礎。他們擁有的大量數據和分析對我們很有幫助，因為現在我們可以利用這些數據，更明智地了解我們的目標促銷活動以及我們在哪些方面花錢，無論是媒體活動還是廣告電視。我認為這將繼續成為我們的一種效率。但我認為，以絕對美元計算，未來它將繼續成長。

The next question will come from Craig Kennison with Baird.

下一個問題將由克雷格·肯尼森和貝爾德提出。

I wanted to deconstruct the incredible retail growth in the quarter. I wonder if you could maybe characterize the mix as it relates to first-time buyers, maybe your core repeat buyers. And then to what extent are there first-time buyers from last year that may have said, "Hey, this is great. I want to buy another one and get my family involved." Things like that.

我想解構本季令人難以置信的零售成長。我想知道您是否可以描述一下與首次購買者（也許是您的核心重複購買者）相關的組合。去年的首次購房者在多大程度上可能會說：“嘿，這太棒了。我想再買一件，讓我的家人參與進來。”像這樣的東西。

Yes, Craig, the mix, as I indicated, I mean, the growth was substantial in both categories. The new customers grew at 70%. Our existing customers at 40%.

是的，克雷格，正如我所指出的，我的意思是，這兩個類別的成長都是巨大的。新客戶成長了 70%。我們現有的客戶佔 40%。

And as I was mentioning in that prior discussion with James, I went through with the team yesterday. The repurchase rates, we started watching this given the surge in demand in 2020. And I think one of the concerns we had was where we're going to have a bunch of people come in and then they lose interest. And the interesting fact is that the repurchase rates, as we look at our 2020 new customers versus, say, 2019 or even 2018 new customers, they're actually repurchasing at a substantially higher rate. Meaning they're coming back in 3, 6 months, 1 year and repurchasing or buying another vehicle. And that's very encouraging, especially when you add that to the existing customer base that we've had for years is coming back in strength. As I mentioned earlier, 40% year-over-year improvement. And it's substantial.

正如我在之前與詹姆斯的討論中提到的，我昨天與團隊進行了交流。鑑於 2020 年需求激增，我們開始關注回購率。我認為我們擔心的一個問題是，我們將有一群人進來，然後他們就會失去興趣。有趣的事實是，當我們比較 2020 年的新客戶與 2019 年甚至 2018 年的新客戶時，他們的回購率實際上要高得多。這意味著他們會在 3、6 個月、1 年後回來重新購買或購買另一輛車。這是非常令人鼓舞的，特別是當你將其添加到我們多年來擁有的現有客戶群正在恢復實力時。正如我之前提到的，年比提高了 40%。而且這是很重要的。

And I know that there's a lot of concern around where is retail headed for the year. And I think (inaudible) 2020, we think retail is going to be kind of flattish. And it will be down a little bit in ORV, up a little bit in Motorcycles, but down.

我知道人們對今年零售業的走向有很多擔憂。我認為（聽不清楚）2020 年，我們認為零售業將會變得平淡。 ORV 方面會下降一點，摩托車方面會上升一點，但還是下降了。

But the point I would raise is we are seeing continued strength through the year relative to 2019. And that's important when you think about where the industry was, the surge we saw in '20, this is not retreating back. We expect we'll be up probably 20%, 25% from a retail standpoint relative to where we were in 2019 on a full year basis. And that's not to be discounted. And that's why we're working the capacity additions that I mentioned earlier as well as evaluating potential capacity additions into the future.

但我要提出的一點是，相對於 2019 年，我們看到全年持續強勁。當你考慮該行業的狀況時，這一點很重要，我們在 20 年看到的激增，這並沒有後退。我們預計，從零售角度來看，相對 2019 年全年而言，我們的銷售額可能會成長 20%、25%。這一點不容小覷。這就是為什麼我們正在努力增加我之前提到的產能，並評估未來潛在的產能增加。

And are you able to measure in any way the impact of stimulus checks as they come into the economy?

當刺激支票進入經濟時，你能以任何方式衡量它們的影響嗎？

It's tough. I mean, we've gotten that question a lot. I guess I characterize it as it's just fuel to the economy and to what is already a very strong consumer savings rate.

它太硬。我的意思是，我們已經收到很多這樣的問題了。我想我將其描述為它只是經濟的燃料，也是已經非常強勁的消費者儲蓄率的燃料。

And I think if you look at our -- we've gone through our demographics and our customer profiles with investors over the years. And for the most part, our customers were really stable through the pandemic in terms of their employment level didn't change, they were collecting stimulus money, the stock market is up. Most of them, obviously, have 401ks. And so the financial stability and strength of our customers has certainly been an equation in this, but to be able to try and correlate the stimulus check itself back, is tough to do.

我認為，如果你看看我們的——多年來，我們已經與投資者一起了解了我們的人口統計和客戶資料。在大多數情況下，我們的客戶在疫情期間非常穩定，他們的就業水準沒有改變，他們正在籌集刺激資金，股市上漲。顯然，他們中的大多數都有 401ks。因此，我們客戶的財務穩定性和實力無疑是其中的一個等式，但要嘗試將刺激措施本身與刺激措施相關聯，是很難做到的。

The next question will come from Brett Andress with KeyBanc.

下一個問題將由 KeyBanc 的 Brett Andress 提出。

Just a question on some of the selective pricing that you're taking. Is there any way to quantify how much price you're passing on right now? And then maybe how much price you need to take or you plan to take in theory to offset some of the gross margin pressure?

只是關於您正在採取的一些選擇性定價的問題。有沒有什麼方法可以量化你現在傳遞的價格是多少？那麼理論上您需要或計劃採取多少價格來抵銷一些毛利率壓力？

Sure. So the announced price increase in ORV was about 2.5%, and that's obviously the biggest factor for us, biggest part of the market. And that comes into effect May 1. So we'll start to see that in Q2 and through the balance of the year.

當然。因此，ORV 宣布的價格上漲約為 2.5%，這顯然是我們這個市場最大部分的最大因素。該規定將於 5 月 1 日生效。因此，我們將在第二季和今年剩餘時間內開始看到這一點。

In terms of the offset, the offset really is a combination of price, lower promo, lower finance, interest, not just price. And so right now, with that increase, we're basically offsetting the cost of the increased logistics and the commodities, but it's on a dollar basis. So you lose a little bit in the gross -- from a gross margin percentage basis.

就抵銷而言，抵銷實際上是價格、較低的促銷、較低的財務、利息的組合，而不僅僅是價格。因此，現在，隨著這一增長，我們基本上抵消了物流和商品增加的成本，但這是以美元為基礎的。因此，從毛利率百分比來看，你會損失一點毛額。

We'll continue to look at price. I mean, obviously, it's tough to forecast commodities and logistics for the full year. We're in a little bit of unprecedented times, particularly from a logistics standpoint. Things are moving around pretty violently. So we'll continue to look at pricing through the course of the year. We have model year introductions coming up in August, so that should give us another opportunity. And so we'll continue to consider that as the year progresses.

我們將繼續關注價格。我的意思是，顯然，很難預測全年的商品和物流。我們正處於一個前所未有的時代，特別是從物流的角度來看。事情的發展非常劇烈。因此，我們將在今年繼續關注定價。我們將在八月推出車型年份，因此這應該給我們另一個機會。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續考慮這一點。

And Brett, I would just add that the pricing moves have been incredibly strategic. I give the team a lot of credit for doing the work rather than just implementing a broad-based price increase. They've been very specific around models. So we have some models that won't get touched. We'll have other models that may be higher, whether that's ORV motorcycles or boats.

布雷特，我想補充一點，定價措施非常具有策略意義。我對團隊所做的工作給予高度讚揚，而不僅僅是實施廣泛的漲價。他們對模型非常具體。所以我們有一些不會被觸及的模型。我們還會有其他可能更高的型號，無論是 ORV 摩托車還是船隻。

And then we've also added freight surcharges, which, obviously, as some of the logistics issues abate in the future, that's obviously a toggle point for us with the dealers.

然後我們還增加了運費附加費，顯然，隨著未來一些物流問題的減少，這顯然是我們與經銷商之間的切換點。

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe building more specifically to, I think, James' question. I think the plan last quarter was to end 2021 channel inventories down 20% to 30% below optimal levels. I guess, with everything that we're seeing so far in 1Q, where does that target stand now? And then any commentary you can share on April retail trends here?

知道了。這很有幫助。我認為，然後可能會更具體地針對詹姆斯的問題。我認為上季的計劃是到 2021 年底通路庫存比最佳水準下降 20% 至 30%。我想，根據我們在第一季迄今所看到的一切，該目標現在處於什麼位置？那麼您可以在這裡分享有關四月份零售趨勢的評論嗎？

Yes. So the way I'd characterize it is that the fourth quarter dealer inventory is going to be lower than we were expecting before. But it will -- we're going to -- the plan right now is to improve it from where we stand today, about 30%, 35%. And so we will see sequential improvement. We'll start to gain a little bit of momentum. But as I said in my prepared remarks, it's going to take us into some time in 2022. And obviously, we'll continue to refine and work that as we get later in the year.

是的。因此，我的描述是，第四季經銷商庫存將低於我們先前的預期。但它將會——我們將會——現在的計劃是在我們今天的基礎上改進它，大約30%、35%。因此，我們將看到連續的改進。我們將開始獲得一點動力。但正如我在準備好的演講中所說，這將把我們帶入 2022 年的某個時間。顯然，我們將在今年晚些時候繼續完善和工作。

April, I think, first and foremost, the expectation is we'll be down versus last year, just given how strong the second quarter. I'll remind you, we were up 57% in retail last year. So that's a tough comp. But the month of April has been performing better than we expected. And the retail is holding up, and the team is doing a great job of expertly navigating that.

我認為，四月份，首先也是最重要的是，考慮到第二季的強勁表現，預期我們的業績將低於去年。我要提醒您的是，去年我們的零售額成長了 57%。所以這是一個艱難的比賽。但四月的表現比我們預期的還要好。零售業正在蓬勃發展，團隊在這方面做得非常出色。

And even though we expect the full quarter to be down versus where we were in second quarter 2020 versus where we were in 2019, we expect retail to be up, call it, 15 to 20-plus percent. And so tough comp to '20, but continued industry growth if you look back to the 2019 time frame.

儘管我們預計整個季度將比 2020 年第二季與 2019 年相比有所下降，但我們預計零售業將成長 15% 至 20% 以上。與 20 世紀相比，競爭如此艱難，但如果回顧 2019 年的時間框架，產業將持續成長。

And the next question will come from Greg Badishkanian with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題將由沃爾夫研究公司的格雷格·巴迪什卡尼安提出。

It's actually Fred Wightman on for Greg. Just wanted to dig into the expectations for the full year powersport market. I think you guys are expecting that to be down low single digits now. Last quarter, that was down high single digits. Could you sort of touch on what changed? How big -- is it more stronger demand lasting longer? Is it better ability to supply that, that's driving the improved outlook?

實際上是弗雷德·懷特曼（Fred Wightman）代替格雷格（Greg）。只是想深入了解全年動力運動市場的預期。我想你們現在預計這個數字會下降到低個位數。上個季度，這數字下降了高個位數。能談談發生了什麼變化嗎？有多大——需求是否更強勁、持續更久？是否有更好的供應能力推動了前景的改善？

Fred, yes, I think it's just better demand. I think we had been anticipating that things would start to drop off earlier in the first quarter, that we would see strong retail performance but would be on a reducing basis. And that really wasn't the case. And March actually was an incredibly strong month for us.

弗雷德，是的，我認為這只是更好的需求。我認為我們一直預計情況會在第一季早些時候開始下降，我們會看到強勁的零售業績，但會有所下降。但事實並非如此。三月對我們來說實際上是一個非常強勁的月份。

So I think it's just overall industry strength, I think. I don't know if I want to correlate it to a delay in the reopening of the economies because I have a firm belief that even after the economy has opened up, I don't think you're going to see a substantial change in the fact that people are going to want to continue to enjoy the outdoors and our products offer an incredible way to do that with their friends and family. But I think it's overall industry health.

所以我認為這只是整個產業的實力。我不知道我是否想將其與經濟重新開放的延遲聯繫起來，因為我堅信，即使在經濟開放之後，我也不認為你會看到經濟方面發生重大變化。事實上，人們希望繼續享受戶外活動，而我們的產品提供了一種令人難以置信的方式與他們的朋友和家人一起享受戶外活動。但我認為這是整個產業的健康狀況。

I think the economic backdrop certainly helps. I think the economy is far stronger than anybody was anticipating and I think it's going to continue to be stronger for the foreseeable future. So we're really encouraged by that. And if we weren't, we wouldn't be making the capacity additions.

我認為經濟背景絕對有幫助。我認為經濟比任何人預期的都要強勁，並且在可預見的未來將繼續強勁。所以我們對此感到非常鼓舞。如果不這樣做，我們就不會增加產能。

And just to shift that output side of the equation. Last quarter, you talked about absenteeism in the 20% range. You guys called that out in the slides again this quarter. Can you touch on what you're seeing from a rate perspective, if that's picked up, what the labor backdrop looks like and how that's sort of playing into some of the supply constraints.

只是為了改變等式的輸出端。上個季度，您談到了 20% 範圍內的缺勤率。你們在本季的幻燈片中再次強調了這一點。您能否談談您從利率角度看到的情況，如果有所回升，勞動力背景是什麼樣的，以及這如何影響一些供應限制。

Yes. I would say that the factory dynamics are less of our issue, and that's why we put that red line on the chart. Certainly, absenteeism rates are still higher than they have been historically. I think we're navigating that much better. I think with the vaccine rollout, we've had success at a number of our locations hosting clinics, where a substantial portion of the manufacturing population is able to voluntarily get vaccinated. And that certainly abates some of the concerns that we saw kind of late last year as employees were returning to the factory.

是的。我想說的是，工廠動態並不是我們的問題，這就是我們在圖表上畫紅線的原因。當然，缺勤率仍然高於歷史水準。我認為我們在這方面做得更好了。我認為隨著疫苗的推出，我們在許多開設診所的地點取得了成功，其中很大一部分製造業人口能夠自願接種疫苗。這無疑減輕了我們去年底員工返回工廠時所看到的一些擔憂。

The real issue for us isn't the plant. It's around the supply chain. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks and a couple of the other questions, we're continuing to expertly navigate that, and we feel confident we'll be able to meet demand.

對我們來說真正的問題不是工廠。這是圍繞供應鏈的。正如我在準備好的發言和其他幾個問題中提到的，我們將繼續熟練地解決這個問題，並且我們有信心滿足需求。

And the next question will come from Scott Stember with CL King.

下一個問題將由 Scott Stember 和 CL King 提出。

Can you maybe -- I'm not sure if you touched on this already, but could you talk about the cadence of guidance for the year. I know the back half of the year, we'll have some price increases coming through and some improvements on the supply chain side. But just for modeling purposes, how we should look at second quarter versus the last 2 quarters of the year?

我不確定你是否已經提到過這一點，但你能談談今年的指導節奏嗎？我知道今年下半年，我們將進行一些價格上漲，並在供應鏈方面進行一些改進。但僅出於建模目的，我們應該如何看待第二季與今年最後兩季的情況？

Yes. I think the way to think about this year, which is different than sort of a normal year, we tend to see some seasonality and Q2, Q3 tend to be our bigger quarters.

是的。我認為思考今年的方式與正常年份不同，我們傾向於看到一些季節性因素，而第二季、第三季往往是我們更大的季度。

This year, just given the strength of retail in Q1, where we see it going for the year, I think there's a lot of customers. People are buying earlier into the season. So the normal timing is moving around a bit. I would think about the next 3 quarters all being very similar to Q1 from a -- both revenue and profitability standpoint.

今年，鑑於第一季零售業的強勁勢頭，我們預計今年的零售業將繼續發展，我認為有很多顧客。人們在季節較早時購買。所以正常的時間會有所變動。我認為從收入和獲利能力的角度來看，接下來的三個季度都與第一季非常相似。

We're talking absolute terms or as far as year-over-year or just percentages or absolute numbers?

我們談論的是絕對術語還是同比，還是只是百分比或絕對數字？

Absolute. Absolute numbers. Because what you see in the second half of the year, so most of the commodities costs, a lot of that's hitting us starting in Q2, we were already locked in on pricing in Q1. So that starts to hit in Q2. Moves around a little bit in the back half. Price increases come in, in May. And then obviously, we'll look at what that looks like for the rest of the year. But -- and a lot of the promotions benefit is in the first half of the year. So there's puts and takes, but I think they'll generally look fairly similar on an absolute basis.

絕對。絕對數字。因為你在下半年看到的情況，所以大部分商品成本，其中許多從第二季開始就對我們造成了影響，我們已經鎖定了第一季的定價。所以這在第二季開始出現。在後半部稍微移動一下。五月，價格上漲。顯然，我們將看看今年剩餘時間的情況。但是──很多促銷活動都是在今年上半年進行的。所以有看跌期權和看跌期權，但我認為它們在絕對基礎上通常看起來相當相似。

Got it. And last question just on Global Adjacent Markets. It's quietly improving very nicely. And I guess the powersports markets take all the glory. But can you maybe talk about Global Adjacent? And what's driving that internationally?

知道了。最後一個問題是關於全球鄰近市場。它正在悄悄地改善得非常好。我猜動力運動市場佔據了所有的榮耀。但您能談談 Global Adjacent 嗎？在國際上是什麼推動了這個趨勢？

Sure. So if you look at global adjacent markets, our Aixam business in Europe, which sells L6 registered vehicles to consumers in Europe, that's recovered really well and has had a strong first quarter and anticipating a strong year.

當然。因此，如果你看看全球鄰近市場，我們在歐洲的 Aixam 業務（向歐洲消費者銷售 L6 註冊車輛）恢復得非常好，第一季表現強勁，預計今年也會強勁。

Our Goupil business in Europe also has picked up nicely coming out of COVID and is performing well for the year.

我們在歐洲的 Goupil 業務也從新冠疫情中恢復過來，今年表現良好。

On the U.S. side, really, the strength has been in our commercial utility vehicle market where we sell RANGER derivative products mostly to the rental industry. And that -- those industries are starting to recover as construction comes back and events slowly claw their way back. People had really taken down their inventory levels at the rental companies and we're seeing some nice recovery there, too.

事實上，在美國方面，我們的商用多用途車市場的優勢在於我們主要向租賃業銷售 RANGER 衍生產品。隨著建築業的恢復和事件的緩慢恢復，這些行業正在開始復甦。人們確實降低了租賃公司的庫存水平，我們也看到了一些不錯的復甦。

The next question will come from Joe Altobello with Raymond James.

下一個問題將由喬·阿爾托貝洛和雷蒙德·詹姆斯提出。

Just want to go back on price increases for a second. You mentioned ORVs up 2.5% starting May 1. Is there any sense that competitors are doing the same? Because I would imagine they're seeing the same cost pressures as you guys are.

只是想回顧漲價問題。您提到 ORV 從 5 月 1 日開始上漲 2.5%。競爭對手也在做同樣的事情是否有任何感覺？因為我想他們也面臨和你們一樣的成本壓力。

Yes. I mean, we do monitor, I mean, given the fact that we share 60% to 70% of the dealer network, we do get intel and we do know that there are price actions that have happened before us and after us. And I think each OEM is taking their own specific approach. But I do think it's a mix of MSRP changes as well as freight or logistics add-ons.

是的。我的意思是，我們確實進行監控，考慮到我們共享 60% 到 70% 的經銷商網絡，我們確實獲得了情報，並且我們確實知道在我們之前和之後發生了價格行為。我認為每個 OEM 都在採取自己特定的方法。但我確實認為這是建議零售價變化以及貨運或物流附加項目的組合。

Got it. Okay. And in terms of gross margin, obviously, a lot's going on right now. But how are you guys thinking about your longer-term gross margins? Do you still see an opportunity to get back to that prior peak margin, tariffs aside obviously, exiting next year? Or does that get pushed off essentially?

知道了。好的。就毛利率而言，顯然現在發生了很多事情。但你們如何看待你們的長期毛利率？您是否仍然認為有機會恢復到明年退出之前的峰值利潤率（顯然不考慮關稅）？或者說這基本上被推遲了？

Well, I think there's some complexity around it. And I hate having this discussion because it always feels like there's a but to the sentence, but there is.

嗯，我認為這有一些複雜性。我討厭進行這種討論，因為總覺得這句話裡有個但是，但確實有。

I think the onetime costs that we're dealing with now, and we do think they're onetime, the elevated, whether it's steel, resins, from a commodity standpoint, certainly the logistics spike that we've seen, we do think those are going to abate. And as I pointed out in my prepared remarks, our supply chain transformation continues to progress incredibly well. And so we're continuing that upward trajectory. These onetime costs are going to start to abate. Obviously, promo and some things like that will start to come back in.

我認為我們現在正在處理的一次性成本，我們確實認為它們是一次性的，升高的，無論是鋼鐵，樹脂，從大宗商品的角度來看，當然是我們所看到的物流高峰，我們確實認為這些將會減弱。正如我在準備好的演講中指出的那樣，我們的供應鏈轉型繼續取得令人難以置信的進展。因此，我們正在繼續這種向上的軌跡。這些一次性成本將開始減少。顯然，促銷和類似的事情將開始回歸。

But we look at it as an opportunity for us to leverage the existing footprint we have. And I think the biggest unknown that we've got is where are tariffs headed, which is not something we spend an awful lot of time talking about. And frankly, I think it's too early in the new administration's time line for us to have a viewpoint. I mean, we obviously continue to self-advocate and work through the -- whether they're political or through the administrative channels. But I don't suspect we're going to hear a whole lot until the end of the year, maybe into next year. And I think that's going to be one of the biggest unknowns for us to be able to get to that high 20% range.

但我們將其視為利用現有足跡的機會。我認為我們面臨的最大的未知數是關稅將走向何方，這不是我們花費大量時間討論的問題。坦白說，我認為在新政府的時間表中我們現在發表觀點還為時過早。我的意思是，我們顯然繼續透過政治管道或行政管道進行自我倡導和工作。但我不認為我們會在今年年底前聽到很多消息，也許到明年。我認為這將是我們能否達到 20% 的高範圍的最大未知因素之一。

Bob, anything you would add?

鮑勃，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, sure, Mike. Ken and I, our teams are working really hard to track and work on plans to make sure that the onetime costs that are coming in this year around expedites and logistics come out of the system as those challenges abate, and that's a big chunk of it.

是的，當然，麥克。肯和我，我們的團隊正在非常努力地追蹤和製定計劃，以確保隨著這些挑戰的減輕，今年圍繞加速和物流的一次性成本可以從系統中消除，這是其中的很大一部分。

Commodities, we expect to start to trend back more towards normal as we get kind of exiting 2021. I don't think it's going to happen anytime soon. But I think as we get back into the fourth quarter, depending on what happens with the rest of the economy, that should start to settle down, if some more capacity comes back online. Obviously, the storms in Dallas kind of piled on to a bad situation. And so some of that's starting to flow again and those costs are starting to mediate a little bit.

隨著 2021 年即將結束，大宗商品預計將開始回歸正常。我認為這種情況不會很快發生。但我認為，當我們回到第四季時，根據其他經濟領域的情況，如果有更多產能恢復上線，這種情況應該會開始穩定下來。顯然，達拉斯的風暴加劇了局勢的惡化。因此，其中一些開始再次流動，這些成本開始有所緩解。

And then really on the long-term side, to Mike's point, it's really the focus on the Sunburst project and make sure we execute on that and drive the value out of that, that we targeted to do and what we can do to leverage the footprint.

然後，從長遠來看，麥克認為，重點是 Sunburst 項目，並確保我們執行該項目並從中創造價值，這是我們的目標，也是我們可以採取的措施來利用腳印。

So I think you'll see us continue to march down that path. The timing is going to depend on the timing of some of these other things.

所以我想你會看到我們繼續沿著這條道路前進。時間將取決於其他一些事情的時間。

The next question will come from Gerrick Johnson with BMO Capital.

下一個問題將由 BMO Capital 的 Gerrick Johnson 提出。

You mentioned that mix was negative because of constraints more so than demand. So you're probably producing more ATVs, probably fewer side-by-sides. Would that be correct? You maybe have a bigger backlog for side-by-side.

您提到混合是負面的，因為限制因素多於需求因素。因此，您可能會生產更多的全地形車，而並排生產的全地形車可能會更少。那是正確的嗎？您可能有更多的並行積壓工作。

And then also kind of related to that, on the demand side, what do you see the mix oriented towards at retail?

與此相關的是，在需求方面，您認為零售業的組合面向什麼？

Sure. Yes. So you guessed correctly there on the ATVs versus side-by-side. When you just look at an ATV from a design standpoint, it's a simpler product that has about half the parts of the side-by-side. So just mathematically, your chance of -- your supplier problems are going to impact it less just because you have less parts to be impacted. So we've been able to build ATVs at a higher rate than we have side-by-sides with some of the logistics challenges.

當然。是的。所以你猜對了全地形車和並排車。當你從設計的角度來看全地形車時，你會發現它是一種更簡單的產品，只有並排的大約一半的零件。因此，從數學上講，您的供應商問題對它的影響會較小，因為您受到影響的零件較少。因此，我們能夠以比我們同時面臨的一些物流挑戰更高的速度製造全地形車。

From a demand standpoint, I think the demand is so strong right now that it's pretty solid across the board. So obviously, we're focused on trying to recover side-by-side build in the later part of the year. And we feel like we'll have some ability to do that. But that mix is still going to continue to impact us.

從需求的角度來看，我認為現在的需求非常強勁，整體來說都相當穩固。顯然，我們的重點是在今年下半年恢復並行建設。我們覺得我們有能力做到這一點。但這種混合仍將繼續影響我們。

The other side of mix, which I really didn't get into, is the international and PG&A growing really strong. International also growing strong, but international margins tend to be a little bit lower. So those 2, to some degree, counter each other.

混合的另一面，我真的沒有深入了解，是國際和 PG&A 的成長非常強勁。國際業務也成長強勁，但國際利潤率往往略低一些。因此，這兩者在某種程度上是相互矛盾的。

Okay. And what are you seeing in terms of financial characteristics of the end consumers? The credit quality there? And what are your financial partners saying about delinquencies and things of that nature?

好的。您對最終消費者的財務特徵有何看法？信用品質在那裡？您的財務夥伴對拖欠和此類性質的事情有何看法？

It's been pretty benign. I mean, financing has been readily available. We're not seeing higher default rates right now. I mean, obviously, we're not in the financing business, we do that through partners. But consumers have found available financing at competitive rates, and we don't think financing is having a big impact on the industry right now.

這已經相當良性了。我的意思是，融資已經很容易獲得。我們目前沒有看到更高的違約率。我的意思是，顯然我們不是從事融資業務，我們透過合作夥伴來做這件事。但消費者已經找到了具有競爭力的利率的可用融資，我們認為融資目前不會對該行業產生重大影響。

The next question will come from Robin Farley with UBS.

下一個問題將由瑞銀集團的羅賓法利提出。

I wanted to just clarify, first, one of your comments about retail expectations for the year. Was that down low single-digit your expectation for the industry or for yourself specifically? Or maybe it was both?

首先，我想澄清一下您對今年零售預期的評論。您對產業或您自己的期望是否下降了個位數？或者也許兩者兼而有之？

And then also I wanted to kind of see if you could help us quantify the restocking opportunity that sounds like in '22. When you think about the -- whether it's in dollar amount or kind of shipment, if you could help us think about, if sales were flat next year to this year, just that restocking piece of it though, would that be equal to kind of what percent of 2019 shipments or what percent of 2019 retail? In other words, just the inventory piece, if you could help us sort of think about that, would that has the opportunity to offset in '22.

然後我還想看看你是否可以幫助我們量化聽起來像 22 年的補貨機會。當你想到——無論是美元金額還是發貨方式，如果你能幫助我們想想，如果明年到今年的銷售額持平，只是補充庫存，這是否等於某種程度佔2019 年出貨量的百分比或2019 年零售量的百分比是多少？換句話說，只是庫存部分，如果你能幫助我們思考一下，是否有機會在 22 年抵消。

Yes. So from a retail standpoint, I mean, obviously, we don't guide retail. But when we look at our models, we think we're going to be flattish for the year. And that obviously has ORV down a little bit, motorcycle is up. And that's predicated on what we are projecting right now. And obviously, we'll continue to update that as we go forward.

是的。因此，從零售的角度來看，我的意思是，顯然我們不指導零售。但當我們審視我們的模型時，我們認為今年的業績將持平。顯然，ORV 下降了一點，而摩托車則上升了。這是基於我們現在的預測。顯然，我們將繼續更新。

And as I mentioned, we do see dealer inventory improving through the end of the year, but we're still going to be short of what is ideal. Last quarter, we talked about the fact that we were probably 30% to 40% below optimal level. And obviously, given better demand, we're even further than that. So it's a restocking opportunity into '22. I don't want to throw any numbers out because we're not prepared to do that. We've got a lot of work to do to see how demand shapes up here as we continue out through the second quarter. It's been better in April than we were expecting. And obviously, we want to see the critical months of May and June and how they play out, because that's going to be really important in terms of how confident we are in the back half, as to whether or not they're potentially a stronger retail or not.

正如我所提到的，我們確實看到經銷商庫存在今年年底有所改善，但我們仍然達不到理想的水平。上個季度，我們談到了這樣一個事實：我們可能比最佳水平低 30% 到 40%。顯然，考慮到更好的需求，我們甚至比這更進一步。因此，這是 22 年重新進貨的機會。我不想透露任何數字，因為我們還沒有準備好這樣做。我們還有很多工作要做，以了解第二季的需求如何變化。四月的情況比我們預期的要好。顯然，我們希望看到五月和六月的關鍵月份以及它們如何發揮作用，因為這對我們對後半區的信心非常重要，無論它們是否有潛力成為更強的球隊零售與否。

Great. And then just lastly, did -- I don't know if you gave what was the change in ASP in Q1?

偉大的。最後，我不知道您是否給出了第一季 ASP 的變化？

I don't think we did because we've got so many different moving parts, but we can certainly get that for you.

我認為我們沒有這樣做，因為我們有很多不同的移動部件，但我們當然可以為您提供。

The next question will come from Jaime Katz with Morningstar.

下一個問題將由晨星公司的 Jaime Katz 提出。

Nice quarter. I hope we can dig a little bit more into the profitability of the Boats business, given the flexibility of the cost structure. I think the gross margin came in a bit ahead of what we had expected and ahead of 2019's first quarter. So is that something that can sustain over the remainder of the year? Or was there some part of mix or some other factor that maybe we should consider as different in the first quarter?

不錯的季度。考慮到成本結構的靈活性，我希望我們能夠更多地挖掘船舶業務的獲利能力。我認為毛利率略高於我們的預期，也高於 2019 年第一季。那麼，這種情況能夠持續到今年剩餘時間嗎？還是我們應該在第一季考慮不同的混合部分或其他因素？

No. I think the first quarter is relatively reflective of the strength we see in that business. One of the things we really liked about the business model, when we bought Boat Holdings, was that the majority of it was pontoons, which is relatively flexible from a volume standpoint and not particularly capital-intensive. So that team has done a great job being able to ramp up production in Q1.

不。我認為第一季相對反映了我們在該業務中看到的實力。當我們收購 Boat Holdings 時，我們真正喜歡這種商業模式的一件事是，其中大部分都是浮橋，從數量的角度來看，浮橋相對靈活，而且資本不是特別密集。因此，該團隊做得很好，能夠在第一季提高產量。

Q2 will be a little bit more challenging just because of shortages of foam across the whole marine industry, foam for seating and foam for flotation. So you'll see some challenges in Q2 that will pick back up in Q3, Q4.

由於整個海洋產業的泡沫、座椅泡沫和漂浮泡沫的短缺，第二季將更具挑戰性。因此，您會在第二季度看到一些挑戰，這些挑戰將在第三季、第四季再次出現。

But in terms of gross margins for the year, we expect to be able to continue to improve as that business grows. We've got a lot of cost improvement initiatives in place. But obviously, it has the same commodities and logistics challenges as the rest of the business.

但就今年的毛利率而言，我們預計隨著業務的成長能夠持續改善。我們已經採取了許多成本改進措施。但顯然，它與其他業務一樣面臨相同的商品和物流挑戰。

But even with the delay in foam, that's not leading to an increase in cancellation of orders or anything like that?

但即使泡沫延遲，這也不會導致取消訂單或類似情況的增加？

No. No. We've been able to ramp up, I think, as fast or faster than any other manufacturer in the marine industry and keep pace. And we're focused on customer sold boats to make sure they're getting them before the start of the season. So I don't think we're losing customers. And I think we'll be able to continue to perform the rest of the year.

不，不。我認為，我們的發展速度與船舶行業的任何其他製造商一樣快，甚至更快，並保持同步。我們專注於客戶出售的船隻，以確保他們在賽季開始前獲得船隻。所以我不認為我們正在失去客戶。我認為我們將能夠在今年剩餘的時間內繼續表現。

Excellent. And then on the autonomous vehicles, I know you guys said there was going to be more detail later in the year. But is there a way for you to just size what that opportunity is for us? Maybe who the end user might be and what the total addressable market might be.

出色的。關於自動駕駛汽車，我知道你們說今年稍後會有更多細節。但有沒有辦法讓您衡量這個機會對我們來說有多大？也許最終用戶可能是誰以及總的潛在市場可能是什麼。

Sure. That's a challenging question. Obviously, autonomy and mobility are sort of rapidly changing segments of the economy as the technology continues to improve.

當然。這是一個具有挑戰性的問題。顯然，隨著科技的不斷進步，自主性和移動性是經濟中快速變化的部分。

What I can tell you, our partner, Optimus Ride with the GEM vehicle, they've got 5 operating sites where they're running vehicles with a safety driver. They have a pretty aggressive plan to grow that as we can deliver the actual full autonomous vehicles in 2023. But -- and their view is it's a very substantial market. We agree with that. Putting real dollars and units to it is pretty tough because it's all going to depend on the timing and the pace of the rollout. So we see it as a good opportunity, but a little too early to size it.

我可以告訴你的是，我們的合作夥伴 Optimus Ride 擁有 GEM 車輛，他們有 5 個營運地點，在這些地點運行配備安全駕駛員的車輛。他們有一個非常積極的計劃來發展這一點，因為我們可以在 2023 年交付真正的全自動駕駛汽車。但是，他們認為這是一個非常龐大的市場。我們同意這一點。投入真正的資金和單位是相當困難的，因為這一切都取決於推出的時間和速度。因此，我們認為這是一個很好的機會，但現在判斷它的規模還為時過早。

The next question will come from David MacGregor with Longbow Research.

下一個問題將由長弓研究公司的大衛·麥格雷戈提出。

Yes, kudos to the team for execution. Just a really brutal environment. So job well done. I guess, I wanted to ask about market share gains here. Under the more normal circumstances, the consumer is going to make the purchase decisions based on branding and product features and everything else. I can see where in this environment, it might swing a little more towards availability. So I guess I wanted to ask you about your market share gains. And do you feel it was just largely based on -- you just had better availability than your competitors? Or what do you think was behind that?

是的，感謝團隊的執行力。只是一個非常殘酷的環境。所以工作做得很好。我想，我想問一下這裡的市佔率成長。在更正常的情況下，消費者將根據品牌和產品功能以及其他一切做出購買決定。我可以看到在這種環境中，它可能會更傾向於可用性。所以我想我想問一下你們的市佔率成長情況。您是否認為這很大程度上是因為您比競爭對手擁有更好的可用性？還是你認為背後的原因是什麼？

Yes. I think it's -- David, it's tough to parse through it. But I would tell you that there's a couple of facts in there. I do think our availability, if you look at all the dealer surveys or whether it's the ones that the sell-side does or the ones that we do, certainly, we have been better than many of our competitors, but I will tell you that they have improved relative to where they were.

是的。我認為——大衛，很難解析它。但我想告訴你，其中有一些事實。我確實認為我們的可用性，如果你查看所有經銷商調查，或者無論是賣方所做的調查還是我們所做的調查，當然，我們比許多競爭對手都要好，但我會告訴你相對於原來的情況，他們已經有所改善。

So I don't want that to sound like there's just no competition in the channel because that isn't the case. And I think if you walk into any dealership, you're going to see that front and center.

所以我不希望這聽起來像是通路中沒有競爭，因為事實並非如此。我想如果你走進任何一家經銷店，你都會看到那個前面和中間。

So I think our demand is really being predicated on the fact that we've been very targeted around some of the promotional work that we do. And when I say promotional, it's about we're bringing existing consumers back, recognizing loyalty to the brand.

因此，我認為我們的需求實際上是基於這樣一個事實：我們所做的一些促銷工作非常有針對性。當我說促銷時，我們是為了讓現有消費者回歸，並認識到對品牌的忠誠度。

I think the innovation, I mean we launched over 40 new products in the first quarter and that's just the start for the year. And the success we've seen with the Snowmobiles, the success we saw with the new trail RZR, in a lot of those instances, the products aren't even available but the demand is through the roof in terms of orders. And the fact that we have customers preordering in terms of getting their hands on a vehicle as it's going through the factory I think speaks to it. And I think that just bodes well in terms of all the work we've done in terms of marketing and the innovation that we have around our products.

我認為創新，我的意思是我們在第一季推出了 40 多種新產品，而這只是今年的開始。我們在雪地摩托車上看到的成功，在新款 RZR 上看到的成功，在許多情況下，產品甚至還沒有上市，但訂單需求卻激增。事實上，我們有客戶在車輛經過工廠時進行預訂，我認為這說明了這一點。我認為，就我們在行銷方面所做的所有工作以及圍繞產品的創新而言，這只是一個好兆頭。

It sounds like it's sustainable. I guess the second question I wanted to ask you was just on RFM. You rolled this out a few years back at a time when the market was actually in the flip condition and we had too much inventory at the dealer levels. And of course, now we're the other way around. At the time, the thought was that it would help you regulate the flow of product to the dealers. But how does it help you in this kind of environment now where the dealers are tight on inventory? Do you just run RFM wide open and it just lets product go wherever you can -- wherever you can supply it? Or does it play some other governing manner here? I'm just trying to understand the role of RFM in a tight market.

聽起來這是可持續的。我想我想問你的第二個問題是關於 RFM 的。幾年前，你推出了這個產品，當時市場實際上處於翻轉狀態，我們經銷商的庫存太多了。當然，現在我們的情況正好相反。當時的想法是，它將幫助您調節產品流向經銷商的流程。但在現在經銷商庫存緊張的情況下，它對您有什麼幫助？您是否只是完全開放地運行 RFM，並且它只是讓產品流向任何您可以供應的地方？還是它在這裡發揮了某種其他的治理方式？我只是想了解 RFM 在緊張的市場中的作用。

Well, I think it's more complicated. But I think the basics are that we went through and did a lot of work around profiles. And so as demand is heating up, obviously, everybody is trying to get their hands on equipment. And the profiles help us keep that in check so that dealers in their exuberance, maybe asking for more than what they really should have in a given region of the country. And so it helps us as we try and define that.

嗯，我認為情況更複雜。但我認為基礎是我們圍繞配置進行了大量工作。因此，隨著需求的升溫，顯然每個人都在試圖獲得設備。這些資料幫助我們控制這一點，以便經銷商在他們的熱情中，可能要求超過他們在該國特定地區真正應該擁有的東西。因此，當我們嘗試定義這一點時，它會幫助我們。

It also helps us as we start lining up all the production. As I mentioned in my comments, the ability to get pre sold is something that I think is really enabled because of the work we did around RFM. The flexibility we have in our manufacturing in terms of being able to model mix and make changes real time is not to be underestimated, and I think it gives us a real competitive opportunity.

當我們開始排列所有的生產時，它也對我們有幫助。正如我在評論中提到的，我認為由於我們圍繞 RFM 所做的工作，預售能力才真正得以實現。我們在製造過程中所擁有的靈活性，能夠對混合進行建模並即時進行更改，這一點不容小覷，我認為這為我們提供了真正的競爭機會。

I mean, obviously, there was a little bit of a disadvantage when this all started because many of our competitors had bloated inventory levels and they were able to bleed those down, but that went away pretty quickly. And I would argue, we're now in a better competitive position because we can react faster with our factories. And when you couple that with the spectacular work being done by our supply chain to manage all the supply disruption, I think it creates a very strong winning equation.

我的意思是，很明顯，當這一切開始時，我們有一點劣勢，因為我們的許多競爭對手的庫存水平過高，他們能夠減少庫存，但這種情況很快就消失了。我認為，我們現在處於更好的競爭地位，因為我們的工廠可以更快做出反應。當你將其與我們的供應鏈為管理所有供應中斷所做的出色工作結合起來時，我認為這創造了一個非常強大的獲勝方程式。

The next question will come from Joseph Spak with RBC.

下一個問題將由加拿大皇家銀行的 Joseph Spak 提出。

I guess I wanted to just go back to Slide 8 and maybe some points of clarification. First, like, why does the unconstrained capacity go down in the fourth quarter? I would have thought that's just sort of like a theoretical capacity. It says also you're adding capacity at like locations like how And I guess why are you doing that if you still have ample capacity?

我想我只想回到投影片 8，也許需要澄清一些問題。首先，為什麼第四季無限制產能下降？我以為這有點像理論能力。它還說你正在像如何增加類似地點的容量，我猜如果你仍然有足夠的容量，你為什麼要這樣做？

And then finally, the gross cost savings, $200 million ahead of plan. Should we interpret that as it all come in sooner? Or the pie is potentially larger?

最後，總成本節省，比計劃提前了 2 億美元。我們是否應該將其解釋為一切都來得更早？或者說蛋糕可能更大？

Yes. So a couple of things. The reason the bars both dip in the back half, I mean, that is, from a production standpoint, it's pretty routine to take your factories down at the end of the year, required maintenance, you've got vacation time with the holidays, a number of those different things. And I will tell you, in the past, if you look at the end of 2020, we didn't ramp down as much because we essentially paid to continue working through that time period. But I mean, the factories are working at full capacity and you've got to do the right level of required maintenance.

是的。有幾件事。我的意思是，這些條形圖都在後半部分下降的原因是，從生產的角度來看，在年底關閉工廠是很常見的，需要維護，假期裡你有休假時間，許多不同的事情。我會告訴你，在過去，如果你看看 2020 年底，我們並沒有減少那麼多，因為我們基本上支付了在這段時間內繼續工作的費用。但我的意思是，工廠正在滿載運轉，你必須進行適當水平的所需維護。

The reason -- first of all, this graph does not have, for example, the boats manufacturing included. This is really what I would call our core powersports, ORV, motorcycles combined. The capacity add, so the boat capacity add, obviously, is not reflected here, and that is helping because there is some constraint there, even though we are facing some of the same supplier issues. But we're adding because, as we look forward, we anticipate the market is going to continue to grow. And we've got new products coming online that we'll be able to add that additional volume in while not taking away from the capacity we need to produce the ongoing vehicles, and that's a big part of what we're doing down in Monterrey.

原因是——首先，這張圖沒有包括例如船隻製造。這就是我所說的我們的核心動力運動、ORV、摩托車的結合。運力的增加，所以船運力的增加，顯然沒有反映在這裡，這很有幫助，因為那裡存在一些限制，儘管我們面臨著一些相同的供應商問題。但我們之所以增加這一點，是因為隨著我們的展望，我們預期市場將繼續成長。我們已經推出了新產品，我們將能夠增加額外的產量，同時不會減少我們生產現有車輛所需的產能，這是我們在蒙特雷所做的一個重要部分。

And as it relates to $200 million, I think we're -- we used the word slightly ahead. I don't want to get too excited because, in the grand scheme of things, being ahead is good but it's not enough to necessarily overcome all these other issues we have. And we're going to continue pushing forward. And as Bob outlined, the good news is, is that these costs are going to continue to accrue. And once the one-off costs, that we're doing a really good job of tracking, abate, we're going to be left with pretty substantial savings. It won't -- the $200 million won't all be there by the end of this year. But we anticipate over the next several years, we're going to get ourselves there and probably ahead of schedule.

由於它涉及 2 億美元，我認為我們稍微提前使用了這個詞。我不想太興奮，因為從長遠來看，領先是好事，但這還不足以克服我們遇到的所有其他問題。我們將繼續前進。正如鮑勃所概述的，好消息是這些成本將繼續增加。一旦一次性成本（我們在追蹤方面做得非常好）減少，我們將節省相當可觀的成本。不會的——到今年年底，這 2 億美元不會全部到位。但我們預計在接下來的幾年裡，我們將實現這一目標，而且可能會提前。

Okay. And then just maybe just on electrification. I know you have the 10-year exclusive of Zero on ORVs. Is there scope to expand that to motorcycles? Maybe not exclusive because I know they do their own bikes. And if not, can you just remind us of your electric plans within the Motorcycles segment?

好的。然後也許只是電氣化。我知道你們在 ORV 上擁有零的 10 年獨家優惠。是否有空間將其擴展到摩托車？也許不是排他性的，因為我知道他們有自己的自行車。如果沒有，您能否提醒我們您在摩托車領域的電動計畫？

Well, I mean, you saw some of it. I mean, we're obviously targeted at the youth. But I would tell you, we learned a lot from the past when we had an electric motorcycle through the Victory brand. We do think it's an attractive segment, and we're taking a hard look at it. And I would just say that as we look forward, we continue to look for opportunities with our existing partner as well as any potential new partners. And we think it's a big opportunity.

嗯，我的意思是，你看到了一些。我的意思是，我們顯然是針對年輕人的。但我想告訴你，當我們透過 Victory 品牌推出電動摩托車時，我們從過去學到了很多。我們確實認為這是一個有吸引力的細分市場，我們正在認真研究它。我只想說，展望未來，我們將繼續與現有合作夥伴以及任何潛在的新合作夥伴尋找機會。我們認為這是一個很大的機會。

Bob obviously participated and led the process with Zero. So Bob, you want to add a couple of comments?

鮑勃顯然與零一起參與並領導了這一過程。鮑勃，您想添加一些評論嗎？

Sure. Obviously, the initial partnership is focused on off-road. But we have regular conversations. There's opportunities to expand it into the other product lines as we jointly feel it makes sense and Motorcycles is an obvious one. It's also obviously the most challenging because Zero's primary product is a motorcycle. But we see opportunities with both Zero or potentially other partners as we see that market starting to grow in the future.

當然。顯然，最初的合作重點是越野。但我們有定期交談。我們有機會將其擴展到其他產品線，因為我們共同認為這是有意義的，而摩托車就是一個明顯的產品線。這顯然也是最具挑戰性的，因為 Zero 的主要產品是摩托車。但我們看到了與零或潛在其他合作夥伴的機會，因為我們看到該市場未來開始成長。

The next question will come from Mark Smith with Lake Street Capital. .

下一個問題將由 Lake Street Capital 的馬克史密斯提出。 。

I just wanted to look into PG&A just a little bit more. You talked previously about kind of the rebuy cycle and what you're seeing. Can you talk about kind of incremental buy within PG&A and any lag that you see from new customers? For instance, are they buying apparel a month or 6 months after? Or are we seeing more parts that are needed as new customers maybe are rough around some of these vehicles than existing customers?

我只是想多了解 PG&A。您之前談到了重購週期的類型以及您所看到的情況。您能談談 PG&A 內部的增量購買類型以及您從新客戶那裡看到的任何滯後嗎？例如，他們是在一個月還是六個月後購買服裝？或者我們看到需要更多的零件，因為新客戶可能比現有客戶對其中一些車輛感到粗糙？

Yes. I would say that we probably don't have those stats. But when we look across the different components of PG&A, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we're seeing growth pretty much everywhere. I mean, parts are up over 30%, which I think is a good signal that folks are using their equipment, doing the repairs. We've done a lot with DIY videos so that folks, if they can't get into a dealership because the dealerships are pretty jammed right now, they can do the work themselves given their relative skill level.

是的。我想說我們可能沒有這些統計數據。但當我們審視 PG&A 的不同組成部分時，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們幾乎到處都看到了增長。我的意思是，零件增加了 30% 以上，我認為這是一個很好的信號，表明人們正在使用他們的設備，進行維修。我們在 DIY 影片方面做了很多工作，這樣，如果人們因為經銷商現在非常擁擠而無法進入經銷商，他們可以根據自己的相對技能水平自己完成工作。

Accessories are up 60%. That's a good indicator that folks are accessorizing their vehicles after they bought. And we actually view that as a big opportunity as we're going through the sale process at the dealership. We're a little challenged because of the backlogs that we're dealing with in our PG&A supply. But over the long term, we think that there's big opportunity to continue to increase the amount of content that we have on the vehicles as they come off the showroom floor. And I think the fact that our accessories are up 60% is just an indicator that consumers do look for ways to make the vehicle unique for themselves.

配件上漲60%。這是一個很好的指標，表明人們在購買車輛後正在裝飾車輛。事實上，我們認為這是一個巨大的機會，因為我們正在經銷商進行銷售流程。由於我們正在處理 PG&A 供應中的積壓問題，我們面臨一些挑戰。但從長遠來看，我們認為，當車輛離開展間時，我們有很大的機會繼續增加車輛的內容量。我認為我們的配件上漲 60% 這一事實表明消費者確實在尋找讓車輛變得獨一無二的方法。

So the growth is great. It's obviously highly profitable for us. And we're seeing it pretty much across every element of PG&A.

所以成長是很大的。顯然這對我們來說是非常有利可圖的。我們幾乎在 PG&A 的每個元素中都看到了這一點。

The next question will come from Billy Kovanis with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將由摩根士丹利的比利·科瓦尼斯提出。

Just wanted to summarize a lot of the commentary on this call and tell me if I'm right here. Your inventory levels are currently down 71%. And you are going to build some inventory through the rest of the year. Even if we assume sort of 2022 retail sales were down, doesn't that give you a pretty good sort of production runway up until mid to late 2022? Can you just correct me if I'm wrong there? The first question.

只是想總結這次電話會議的許多評論，並告訴我我是否在這裡。您的庫存水準目前下降了 71%。您將在今年剩餘時間內建立一些庫存。即使我們假設 2022 年零售額有所下降，這是否會在 2022 年中後期之前為您提供相當好的生產跑道？如果我錯了，你能糾正我嗎？第一個問題。

I think the only thing I'll correct you on is using the word late 2022 because I don't know that we have that clarity yet. I was -- we were very deliberate around our word some time in 2022. And I think that's important. And we're going to continue to watch, because it really does depend on how things cadence out.

我想我唯一要糾正你的是使用「2022 年底」這個詞，因為我不知道我們是否已經做到了這一點。我在 2022 年的某個時候非常謹慎地履行了我們的諾言。我認為這很重要。我們將繼續觀察，因為這確實取決於事情的進展。

And I mentioned it, I think, when I was responding to Robin's question. April is important, but May and June are just as important. I mean, we saw tremendous growth that led to the 57% year-over-year increase in the second quarter last year. And really understanding how that's patterning out, I mean, right now, if April as an indicator, it's stronger than we expected, and so that's obviously going to influence how we characterize the 2022 timing of the channel refill.

我想，當我回答羅賓的問題時，我提到了這一點。四月很重要，但五月和六月也同樣重要。我的意思是，我們看到了巨大的成長，導致去年第二季年增 57%。真正理解這是如何形成的，我的意思是，現在，如果 4 月作為一個指標，它比我們預期的要強，所以這顯然會影響我們如何描述 2022 年頻道補充的時間。

Awesome. And then just shifting to electric real quick. Any customer feedback that you can share with us in your initial model releases? And is there any plan to potentially bolt on any company that you think would give you some edge in electric manufacturing?

驚人的。然後很快就轉向電動。您可以在最初的模型發布中與我們分享任何客戶回饋嗎？是否有任何計劃可能會收購任何您認為會為您在電氣製造方面帶來優勢的公司？

Yes. I mean, we really -- we don't have anything out in the market per se. We have our existing products out there.

是的。我的意思是，我們真的——我們在市場上沒有任何產品。我們有現有的產品。

What I can tell you is if you haven't seen the video that we put out on the new electric RANGER, we're demonstrating its capability here in our very cold Minnesota backdrop. And I can tell you, I mean, it's just a phenomenal vehicle and the team is continuing to refine it.

我可以告訴您的是，如果您還沒有看過我們發布的關於新款電動 RANGER 的視頻，我們將在明尼蘇達州非常寒冷的背景下展示其功能。我可以告訴你，我的意思是，這只是一輛非凡的車輛，團隊正在繼續完善它。

And the best part about our strategy, we're working with Zero, who's got the powertrain expertise and understands the components and how to configure and we're dedicating our time and energy to what we do best, which is really around the design of the vehicle and the chassis. And when you marry those 2 together, I think it's going to be an incredibly powerful combination. And I think that's what you see coming out with the teaser videos that we have on the RANGER.

我們策略中最好的部分是，我們正在與零合作，他擁有動力總成專業知識，了解組件以及如何配置，我們將時間和精力投入到我們最擅長的事情上，這實際上是圍繞設計車輛和底盤。當你將這兩者結合在一起時，我認為這將是一個非常強大的組合。我認為這就是您在我們的 RANGER 預告片中看到的內容。

So we'll know as we get into 2022 and we launch that vehicle, but I fully expect it's going to be an incredible reception.

因此，當我們進入 2022 年並推出該車輛時，我們就會知道，但我完全預計這將是一個令人難以置信的反響。

Our next question will come from Shawn Collins with Citi.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的肖恩柯林斯。

I wanted to ask about the motorcycle industry. Huge retail quarter at Indian, up low 60s. Your U.S. peer had retail up 30%. It's certainly nice to see the industry grow, following huge growth in off-road, ORVs and boating. Can you possibly provide some qualitative color on kind of what you're seeing and hearing from consumers and if you think the motorcycle industry and Indian is set up for a better industry tailwind for the rest of '21?

我想問一下摩托車行業的情況。 Indian 的零售季度規模龐大，價格上漲 60 多美元。美國同業的零售額上漲了 30%。隨著越野車、ORV 和划船領域的巨大發展，看到該行業不斷發展當然是令人高興的。您是否可以就您從消費者那裡看到和聽到的情況提供一些定性的信息，以及您是否認為摩托車行業和印度已經做好了在 21 年餘下時間裡更好的行業順風的準備？

And Mike, I think you had said that you expect the motorcycle industry to be up a little, if I'm not incorrect.

麥克，我想你曾說過，如果我沒記錯的話，你預計摩托車產業會有所成長。

Yes. I mean, look, I think the backdrop is that the industry is poised to do better. I think we've talked a number of different times, that the industry, given the dominant player, is really predicated on how they did last year, which wasn't great. So the industry is doing better partly because of that, but because we're outperforming. I mean, our market share gains continue. We introduced the new Chief, which essentially kind of fills out the Indian platform. And I would tell you, I mean, we are seeing strength across the board, whether it's FTR, the Bobber, the demand for the new Chief as well as our heavyweight bikes. And I think it's just the uniqueness of the brand. The bikes are beautiful. They're engineered incredibly well. And we think we're going to continue to win that competitive battle for the foreseeable future.

是的。我的意思是，看，我認為背景是該行業準備做得更好。我想我們已經討論過很多次了，考慮到行業的主導地位，這個行業實際上是基於他們去年的表現，而去年的表現並不好。因此，該行業表現更好的部分原因是這一點，但也是因為我們表現出色。我的意思是，我們的市佔率持續成長。我們推出了新的 Chief，它基本上填補了印度平台的空白。我想告訴你，我的意思是，我們看到了全面的實力，無論是 FTR、Bobber、對新 Chief 的需求以及我們的重量級自行車。我認為這就是該品牌的獨特之處。自行車很漂亮。它們的設計非常好。我們認為，在可預見的未來，我們將繼續贏得這場競爭。

Okay. That's the last question. Just one follow-up on the ASP. Off-road vehicles ASP was up approximately 6%. Motorcycles ASP was down about 2%. That was really the mix between the full-sized motorcycles and the midsized motorcycles. And then for the total company, it was up about 4% on ASP.

好的。這是最後一個問題。只是 ASP 的一項後續工作。越野車平均售價上漲約 6%。摩托車平均售價下降約 2%。這實際上是全尺寸摩托車和中型摩托車的混合。然後，對於整個公司而言，平均售價上漲了約 4%。

With that, we'll end the call. I want to thank everyone for participating. We look forward to talking to you next quarter. Goodbye.

這樣，我們就結束通話了。我要感謝大家的參與。我們期待下個季度與您交談。再見。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。