Polaris Inc (PII) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Polaris Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Earnings Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎來到 Polaris 2020 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議和網絡廣播。（操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Richard Edwards, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁理查德·愛德華茲 (Richard Edwards)。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Chuck, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our 2020 fourth quarter and full year earnings call. A slide presentation is accessible at our website at ir.polaris.com, which has additional information for this morning's call. Mike Speetzen, our Interim Chief Executive Officer; and Bob Mack, our Interim Chief Financial Officer have remarks summarizing the quarter and the full year and our expectations for 2021, then we'll take some questions.

謝謝你，查克，大家早上好。感謝您參加我們的 2020 年第四季度和全年財報電話會議。您可以在我們的網站 ir.polaris.com 上查看幻燈片演示，其中包含有關今天上午電話會議的更多信息。Mike Speetzen，我們的臨時首席執行官；我們的臨時首席財務官鮑勃·麥克 (Bob Mack) 發表了講話，總結了本季度和全年以及我們對 2021 年的預期，然後我們將回答一些問題。

During the call, we will be discussing various topics, which should be considered forward-looking for the purposes of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results could differ materially from those projections in the forward-looking statements. You can refer to our 2019 10-K for additional details regarding these risks and uncertainties.

在電話會議期間，我們將討論各種主題，就 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》而言，這些主題應被視為具有前瞻性。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測存在重大差異。您可以參閱我們的 2019 年 10-K，了解有關這些風險和不確定性的更多詳細信息。

All references to the fourth quarter and full year 2020 actual results and 2021 guidance are reported on an adjusted non-GAAP basis unless otherwise noted. Please refer to our Reg G reconciliation schedules at the end of this presentation for the GAAP to non-GAAP adjustments.

除非另有說明，所有提及 2020 年第四季度和全年實際業績以及 2021 年指引的內容均按調整後的非 GAAP 基礎報告。請參閱本演示文稿末尾的 Reg G 調節表，了解 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整。

Now I'll turn it over to our Interim CEO, Mike Speetzen. Mike?

現在我將把它交給我們的臨時首席執行官 Mike Speetzen。麥克風？

Thanks, Richard. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm pleased to be speaking with you today as Polaris' Interim CEO.

謝謝，理查德。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。我很高興今天作為 Polaris 臨時首席執行官與您交談。

Before we review the results for the fourth quarter and the full year 2020, let me say a few words about my current role. I first want to thank Scott Wine on behalf of the Board of Directors and the entire Polaris team for his leadership over the past 12-plus years. Through his tenure, he instilled a sense of enthusiasm and a commitment to excellence across the organization that has put our company in an enviable position to drive growth and profitability going forward, and I'm thrilled to build on that momentum.

在我們回顧第四季度和 2020 年全年業績之前，讓我先簡單介紹一下我目前的角色。我首先要代表董事會和整個 Polaris 團隊感謝 Scott Wine 在過去 12 年多的時間裡的領導。在他的任職期間，他向整個組織灌輸了熱情和對卓越的承諾，這使我們公司處於令人羨慕的位置，能夠推動未來的增長和盈利，我很高興能夠在此勢頭的基礎上再接再厲。

Our Board of Directors continues to work diligently through the process. In the meantime, I appreciate the Board's confidence in Bob Mack, our Interim CFO, and myself. Our performance in 2020 underscores the outstanding talent and dedication of our team, which will allow us to continue to win going forward. I'm excited and energized to lead the best team in powersports to another successful year.

我們的董事會在整個過程中繼續勤奮工作。與此同時，我感謝董事會對臨時首席財務官 Bob Mack 和我本人的信任。我們 2020 年的表現凸顯了我們團隊的傑出才能和奉獻精神，這將使我們能夠繼續取得勝利。我很興奮也充滿活力，能夠帶領動力運動領域最好的團隊再創成功的一年。

To say that 2020 was an exceptionally unusual year would be an understatement. The company started the year with very aggressive goals, both financial and operational, and the first couple of months were trending on plan. Then the pandemic drove an abrupt shutdown of international commerce in March, sending shock waves through the global economy. In response, we quickly implemented our recession playbook and worked to ensure the liquidity of the company.

說 2020 年是極不尋常的一年，一點也不為過。該公司在年初就制定了非常積極的財務和運營目標，前幾個月的發展趨勢也按計劃進行。隨後，疫情在三月份導致國際貿易突然關閉，給全球經濟帶來了衝擊。作為回應，我們迅速實施了經濟衰退策略，並努力確保公司的流動性。

The agility and dedication of our team was on full display as we navigated incredibly uncertain times. We temporarily closed factories, cut nonessential expenses, and shuttered underperforming assets. Within a matter of weeks, our retail sales turned positive and have only accelerated from there. I want to again thank the Polaris team for how they stepped up and leaned in to support our dealers and customers and protect this great company during such a challenging time.

當我們度過極其不確定的時期時，我們團隊的敏捷性和奉獻精神得到了充分體現。我們暫時關閉了工廠，削減了非必要開支，並關閉了表現不佳的資產。幾週之內，我們的零售額就轉為正數，並且增速不斷加快。我想再次感謝北極星團隊，感謝他們在如此充滿挑戰的時期挺身而出，全力支持我們的經銷商和客戶，並保護這家偉大的公司。

While we didn't experience sales growth in every business this past year, the momentum coming out of the fourth quarter was positive. Our fourth quarter sales increased 24%, and adjusted EPS was up an astonishing 83%. The strong retail and corresponding revenue growth drove full year sales up 4%, topping $7 billion. And we leveraged this growth to adjusted earnings up 22% for the full year.

雖然去年我們並沒有看到每項業務的銷售增長，但第四季度的勢頭是積極的。我們第四季度的銷售額增長了 24%，調整後的每股收益增長了驚人的 83%。強勁的零售和相應的收入增長推動全年銷售額增長 4%，突破 70 億美元。我們利用這一增長使全年調整後收益增長了 22%。

Market share gains continued for our Motorcycle business. And I'm proud to report that our ORV business gained share in the fourth quarter as our production velocity improved and we leveraged the competitive advantage of our scale and our Retail Flow Management system. While the data for Boats is preliminary with a limited number of states reporting, the initial read is encouraging as well.

我們的摩托車業務的市場份額繼續增長。我很自豪地向大家報告，隨著生產速度的提高以及我們利用規模和零售流程管理系統的競爭優勢，我們的 ORV 業務在第四季度獲得了份額。雖然船舶數據是初步數據，報告數量有限，但初步數據也令人鼓舞。

Our manufacturing output improved substantially during the quarter, but constraints from various suppliers persisted, which impacted our ability to meet delivery plans. Improvements will continue into the third quarter of this year, and it will likely take us most of the year to improve dealer inventory levels. And finally, PG&A, Aftermarket, Global Adjacent Markets and International all posted strong year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter despite ongoing challenges with supply and COVID-related economic shutdowns.

本季度我們的製造產量大幅提高，但來自各個供應商的限制仍然存在，這影響了我們滿足交付計劃的能力。改善情況將持續到今年第三季度，我們可能需要今年的大部分時間來改善經銷商庫存水平。最後，PG&A、售後市場、全球鄰近市場和國際市場在第四季度均實現了強勁的同比增長，儘管供應和與新冠病毒相關的經濟停擺仍然面臨挑戰。

Fourth quarter North American retail sales were up 28%, continuing the unprecedented levels of growth as consumers continue to turn to powersports as a socially distanced outdoor activity. With improved product availability, our ORV business gained market share in the fourth quarter as the industry grew in the high 20% range. Indian and Slingshots fourth quarter retail remained strong, finishing up nearly 40% and market share up 4 percentage points.

第四季度北美零售額增長 28%，繼續保持前所未有的增長水平，因為消費者繼續轉向動力運動作為一種保持社交距離的戶外活動。隨著產品可用性的提高，我們的 ORV 業務在第四季度獲得了市場份額，行業增長率高達 20%。印度和 Slingshots 第四季度零售依然強勁，最終增長近 40%，市場份額上升 4 個百分點。

Boat retail was also strong for all brands during the quarter and year, tracking essentially in line with the industry for the year, which was up high teens percent. Snowmobile sales were strong as well, with retail up in the mid-20% range season-to-date through December ahead of overall industry growth trends. We're confident that the growing interest in powersports along with our expansive product lineup and innovative products will continue to drive strong performance into 2021 and beyond. Our RFM system provided us a competitive advantage as we were able to outperform the industry in terms of delivering much-needed inventory to the dealers.

所有品牌的船舶零售在本季度和本年度也表現強勁，與今年的行業走勢基本一致，該行業增長了百分之十幾。雪地摩託的銷售也很強勁，截至 12 月份為止，零售額增長了 20%，領先於整個行業的增長趨勢。我們相信，人們對動力運動日益增長的興趣以及我們豐富的產品陣容和創新產品將繼續推動 2021 年及以後的強勁業績。我們的 RFM 系統為我們提供了競爭優勢，因為我們能夠在向經銷商提供急需的庫存方面超越行業。

Despite this performance, dealer inventory remained at historically low levels as demand continued at unprecedented rates. North American dealer inventory was down 58% year-over-year, with all segments trending below ideal levels. While inventory remains at decade-low levels, we improved on our delivery metrics sequentially as we ramped production and moved product around the channel to minimize customer wait times.

儘管表現如此，但由於需求持續以前所未有的速度增長，經銷商庫存仍處於歷史低位。北美經銷商庫存同比下降 58%，所有細分市場的庫存均低於理想水平。雖然庫存仍保持在十年來的低水平，但隨著我們提高產量並在渠道中轉移產品以最大限度地減少客戶等待時間，我們的交付指標也得到了連續改善。

Maximizing retail sales and filling order backlog remains front and center in this unique pandemic environment, while concurrently working to ease dealer inventory pressures as quickly as feasible. Supplier constraints remain a bottleneck, and we are working all available options to ease the supply chain strain as quickly as possible.

在這種獨特的大流行環境中，最大限度地提高零售額和填補訂單積壓仍然是首要任務，同時努力盡快緩解經銷商庫存壓力。供應商限制仍然是一個瓶頸，我們正在研究所有可用的選項，以盡快緩解供應鏈壓力。

As we project out dealer inventory levels for 2021, we have a couple of dynamics occurring that are meaningful. First, given improved delivery processes enabled by our refined RFM system, we believe that our dealers can successfully operate below their historical inventory profile levels. Secondly, as supply chain constraints abate, dealer inventory levels should improve through the year, but we still believe 2021 will finish below optimal levels targeted under this refined RFM system.

當我們預測 2021 年經銷商庫存水平時，我們發現了一些有意義的動態。首先，鑑於我們完善的 RFM 系統改進了交付流程，我們相信我們的經銷商可以在低於其歷史庫存狀況水平的情況下成功運營。其次，隨著供應鏈限制的減輕，經銷商庫存水平全年應會有所改善，但我們仍然認為 2021 年的最終業績將低於這一完善的 RFM 系統目標的最佳水平。

During the early days of the lockdowns, it quickly became apparent that many people were seeking ways for their families to enjoy the outdoors, which positioned us quite well. As you can see, we added a considerable number of new customers. This new diverse customer base drove growth across our powersports portfolio as they increasingly invited their friends and families to the sport.

在封鎖的初期，很快就發現許多人正在尋找讓家人享受戶外活動的方法，這對我們來說非常有利。正如您所看到的，我們增加了相當多的新客戶。這種新的多元化客戶群推動了我們動力運動產品組合的增長，因為他們越來越多地邀請朋友和家人參加這項運動。

An important fact for you to consider is that historically, approximately 65% of our customer growth has come from new customers. The past year, new accounted for just over 70% of our growth, representing roughly a 30% increase versus 2019. Our existing customers grew at a mid-single-digit rate versus 2019, reflecting the strength of our installed base.

您需要考慮的一個重要事實是，從歷史上看，我們大約 65% 的客戶增長來自新客戶。去年，新業務占我們增長的 70% 多一點，與 2019 年相比增長了約 30%。與 2019 年相比，我們的現有客戶以中等個位數的速度增長，反映了我們客戶群的實力。

Our Polaris Adventures business is further evidence of this increased attraction of first-time customers, with Adventures completing over 270,000 rides in 2020, a 95% increase over 2019. These are customers that have the potential to become Polaris owners in the coming years. As we've said in the past, Polaris is not unique in realizing the new customer growth, but we are taking active steps to engage and cultivate these important additions to the Polaris family.

我們的北極星冒險 (Polaris Adventures) 業務進一步證明了對首次顧客的吸引力不斷增加，2020 年 Adventures 完成了超過 270,000 次騎行，比 2019 年增長了 95%。這些客戶有可能在未來幾年成為北極星的所有者。正如我們過去所說，北極星在實現新客戶增長方面並不是獨一無二的，但我們正在採取積極措施吸引和培養北極星家族的這些重要成員。

We recently introduced Polaris Adventures Select, the first-ever monthly subscription service for the powersports industry. This is yet another great example of how Polaris leads in innovative approaches to attracting new customers to the business. Polaris Adventures Select is a membership program that offers access to the Polaris family of vehicles, including ORVs, Indian Motorcycles and Slingshots through a monthly fee. Members can tailor their program either by picking up a vehicle themselves, having it delivered directly to their home, or booking an experience at one of our Polaris Adventures outfit. The rollout of this unique service is currently being piloted in the greater Phoenix, Arizona market.

我們最近推出了 Polaris Adventures Select，這是動力運動行業首個按月訂閱服務。這是北極星如何引領創新方法來吸引新客戶加入業務的又一個很好的例子。Polaris Adventures Select 是一項會員計劃，通過按月付費即可使用 Polaris 系列車輛，包括 ORV、印第安摩托車和彈弓。會員可以通過自己取車、直接送貨上門或在我們的北極星探險裝備中預訂體驗來定制自己的計劃。這項獨特服務目前正在亞利桑那州鳳凰城大市場進行試點。

First, I want to thank our manufacturing, supply chain and logistics teams around the world. They executed at levels never seen before and did so in an environment fraught with risks and challenges. Their effort and dedication made all the difference in Q4. Unprecedented demand has put considerable pressure on our plants. You will recall that during the peak of the pandemic, we had to bring most of our plant network down for a period of time.

首先，我要感謝我們在世界各地的製造、供應鍊和物流團隊。他們在充滿風險和挑戰的環境中以前所未有的水平執行任務。他們的努力和奉獻讓第四季度發生了巨大的變化。前所未有的需求給我們的工廠帶來了相當大的壓力。您可能還記得，在疫情高峰期間，我們不得不將大部分工廠網絡關閉一段時間。

And while our plants have been at full production for some time now, we have work to do to meet both the ongoing retail demand and replenish dealer -- depleted dealer inventory. We've been ramping factory output to the extent our supply chain will allow. However, as we indicated earlier, some of our suppliers are not yet capable of meeting the rapid demand spikes.

雖然我們的工廠已經滿負荷生產一段時間了，但我們仍然需要努力滿足持續的零售需求並補充經銷商耗盡的庫存。我們一直在供應鏈允許的範圍內提高工廠產量。然而，正如我們之前指出的，我們的一些供應商尚無法滿足快速增長的需求。

Based on our retail demand expectations for 2020 and anticipated supply chain improvement plans, we are likely to be running our plants above the ideal capacity levels throughout most of 2021. Given the anticipated continued strong retail demand for our products and the robustness of our future product plans, we will continue to look at all options for meeting demand and customer expectations.

根據我們對 2020 年零售需求的預期和預期的供應鏈改進計劃，我們的工廠可能在 2021 年的大部分時間裡都在高於理想產能水平的情況下運行。鑑於預期對我們產品的持續強勁零售需求以及我們未來產品計劃的穩健性，我們將繼續考慮滿足需求和客戶期望的所有選擇。

We continue to make strategic investments in manufacturing, sourcing, distribution, digital and customer engagement, but we remain a product company at heart. In 2020, we introduced over 120 new products across our portfolio and over 900 new accessories in our PG&A and Aftermarket segment. With the investments we've made in research and development over the past several years, our Innovation Vitality Index, which is defined as the percentage of sales from products introduced within the past 3 years, was a healthy 90% in 2020.

我們繼續在製造、採購、分銷、數字化和客戶參與方面進行戰略投資，但我們本質上仍然是一家產品公司。2020 年，我們在產品組合中推出了 120 多種新產品，在 PG&A 和售後市場領域推出了 900 多種新配件。通過過去幾年我們在研發方面的投資，我們的創新活力指數（定義為過去 3 年內推出的產品佔銷售額的百分比）在 2020 年達到了 90% 的健康水平。

The cadence of new product introductions will continue to accelerate in 2021, including vehicles and technology that will make owning and using our vehicles more fun, easier to use and more intuitive than ever. Just last week, we introduced 2 new RANGER vehicles, the RANGER Big Game and Waterfowl Editions; 3 new RZR Trail models; and a new Sportsman ATV, and trust that this is just the beginning of a full year of new product news in all categories, including a new Indian Motorcycle that celebrates the 100-year anniversary of the original Indian Chief by launching a brand-new Chief on February 9 with shipments beginning this spring.

2021 年新產品推出的節奏將繼續加快，其中包括使擁有和使用我們的車輛比以往更有趣、更容易使用、更直觀的車輛和技術。就在上週，我們推出了 2 款新 RANGER 車輛：RANGER Big Game 和 Waterfowl Edition； 3 款全新 RZR Trail 車型；和一款新的 Sportsman ATV，相信這只是全年所有類別新產品新聞的開始，其中包括一款新的 Indian 摩托車，該摩托車通過推出全新 Chief 來慶祝原 Indian Chief 誕生 100 週年2 月9 日發貨，今年春季開始發貨。

I'm not going to steal Bob's thunder, but rest assured, we have the company poised for yet another record financial year, and I'm very optimistic about our future. My role is to ensure that our strategic, operational and financial priorities are clearly understood across the organization: first and foremost, maintaining the health and safety of our employees is our top priority; second, delivering on our financial targets, both near-term and the 5-year strategic goals is critical; third, bringing dealer inventory back in line with targeted RFM profiles as quickly as possible; and finally, executing on our strategic initiatives, including quality, supply chain transformation, digital and electrification.

我不會搶鮑勃的風頭，但請放心，我們公司已準備好迎接又一個創紀錄的財政年度，我對我們的未來非常樂觀。我的職責是確保整個組織清楚地了解我們的戰略、運營和財務優先事項：首先，維護員工的健康和安全是我們的首要任務；其次，實現我們的財務目標，包括近期和五年戰略目標至關重要；第三，盡快使經銷商庫存恢復與目標 RFM 資料相符；最後，執行我們的戰略舉措，包括質量、供應鏈轉型、數字化和電氣化。

I can assure you that our entire executive leadership team has the experience and dedication and are fully committed to executing on these priorities. I'll now turn it over to Bob Mack, who will summarize our fourth quarter and full year 2020 results and our expectations for 2021.

我可以向您保證，我們整個執行領導團隊擁有豐富的經驗和奉獻精神，並完全致力於執行這些優先事項。我現在將其交給 Bob Mack，他將總結我們 2020 年第四季度和全年的業績以及我們對 2021 年的預期。

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. I'm excited to be joining Mike in leading the company and I look forward to working with all of you. I also want to reiterate Mike's comments earlier that this was an unprecedented year on a number of fronts. The team remained focused and drove record performance in 2020. The ongoing robust demand for our products has generated strong sales and earnings results.

謝謝邁克，大家早上好。我很高興能與邁克一起領導公司，並期待與大家合作。我還想重申邁克早些時候的評論，即今年在許多方面都是前所未有的一年。該團隊保持專注，並在 2020 年創造了創紀錄的業績。對我們產品的持續強勁需求產生了強勁的銷售和盈利業績。

Our fourth quarter sales were up 24% on a GAAP and adjusted basis versus the prior year, with all segments growing sales and most growing double-digit percent. Volume growth was the main driver, with average selling price up only about 3% during the quarter. Fourth quarter earnings per share on a GAAP basis was $3.15. Adjusted earnings per share was $3.34, up 83% from last year's fourth quarter, benefiting from a combination of increased volume, positive mix, lower promotional and flooring costs, partially offset by inefficiencies from freight and rework at the factories brought on by the supply chain challenges.

根據 GAAP 和調整後的數據，我們第四季度的銷售額與上一年相比增長了 24%，所有細分市場的銷售額均實現增長，其中大部分增長了兩位數。銷量增長是主要推動力，本季度平均售價僅上漲約 3%。第四季度按 GAAP 計算的每股收益為 3.15 美元。調整後每股收益為 3.34 美元，較去年第四季度增長 83%，受益於銷量增加、積極組合、促銷和地板成本降低，部分被供應鏈帶來的工廠貨運和返工效率低下所抵消挑戰。

Additionally, our fourth quarter operating expense leverage improved compared to last year's fourth quarter due to both continued prudent spending, along with $12 million of stock compensation reversal benefit related to the CEO departure. For the full year 2020, sales were up 4% on a GAAP and adjusted basis versus the prior year. All segments except ORV were down for the full year 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19 in Q1 and Q2 when the country, our business were impacted by the related economic shock and our factories, dealers and 4WP stores were closed for several weeks. Full year earnings per share on a GAAP basis was $1.99. Adjusted earnings per share was $7.74, well ahead of our expectations.

此外，由於持續的審慎支出以及與首席執行官離職相關的 1200 萬美元的股票薪酬逆轉福利，我們第四季度的運營費用槓桿比去年第四季度有所改善。2020 年全年，按照 GAAP 和調整後的基礎計算，銷售額比上一年增長了 4%。由於第一季度和第二季度COVID-19 的影響，除ORV 之外的所有細分市場均出現下滑，當時國家、我們的業務受到相關經濟衝擊的影響，我們的工廠、經銷商和4WP 商店關閉了數週。按 GAAP 計算的全年每股收益為 1.99 美元。調整後每股收益為 7.74 美元，遠高於我們的預期。

As Mike indicated, the unprecedented growth in retail sales from new customers coming into the market and existing customer repurchases exceeded our optimistic assumptions as we moved through the year. Similar to the fourth quarter, the full year EPS benefited from a combination of increased volume, positive mix, lower promotional and flooring costs, and operating expense containment, partly offset by inefficiencies from freight and rework at the factories driven by the supply chain challenges.

正如邁克指出的那樣，隨著新客戶進入市場和現有客戶回購，零售額出現了前所未有的增長，超出了我們這一年的樂觀假設。與第四季度類似，全年每股收益受益於銷量增加、積極組合、促銷和地板成本降低以及運營費用控制等綜合因素，但供應鏈挑戰導致工廠貨運和返工效率低下部分抵消了這一影響。

Adjusted gross profit margins increased 95 basis points for the fourth quarter, driven by favorable product mix, higher average selling prices due to lower promotions, flooring costs, which was somewhat offset by logistics and plant inefficiencies. You can find more detail on gross profit margin performance for 2020 in the supplemental section of this presentation.

第四季度調整後毛利率增長了95 個基點，這主要得益於有利的產品組合、促銷活動減少導致的平均售價上漲以及地板成本，但物流和工廠效率低下在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。您可以在本演示文稿的補充部分中找到有關 2020 年毛利率表現的更多詳細信息。

Turning to our segment performance. All segments grew sales in the fourth quarter, driven by a combination of continued strong retail demand, new product introductions in the second half of the year, and the significant order backlog at dealers. Reported fourth quarter segment sales were as follows: ORV/Snowmobile sales were up 29%; Motorcycle sales increased 23%; Global Adjacent Market sales were up 18%; Aftermarket sales were up 8%; and our Boat segment sales increased a strong 20% on a GAAP and adjusted basis in Q4. Average selling prices were up for all segments for the fourth quarter, except for Motorcycles and Boats, which were both lower due to the mix of products sold in the quarter.

轉向我們的細分市場表現。受持續強勁的零售需求、下半年新產品推出以及經銷商大量訂單積壓的推動，所有細分市場的銷售額均實現增長。報告的第四季度分部銷售額如下： ORV/雪地摩托車銷售額增長 29%；摩托車銷量增長23%；全球鄰近市場銷售額增長 18%；售後市場銷量增長 8%；根據 GAAP 和調整後的基礎，我們的船舶部門銷售額在第四季度強勁增長了 20%。第四季度所有細分市場的平均售價均有所上漲，但摩托車和船舶除外，由於該季度銷售的產品組合，這兩個領域的平均售價均較低。

On a full year basis, with the exception of ORV, all segment sales were down on a year-over-year basis due to the pandemic dynamics I described earlier. While ORV sales were down in the first and second quarter, the outstanding retail demand acceleration for our vehicles worldwide, complemented by our ability to quickly restart the supply chain and manufacturing plants, allowed us to overcome the slow start to finish up 9% for the year. International and PG&A sales, which were also strong, are embedded within each respective segment.

從全年來看，除 ORV 外，由於我之前描述的大流行動態，所有細分市場的銷售額均同比下降。雖然ORV 銷量在第一和第二季度有所下降，但我們的車輛在全球範圍內的零售需求顯著加速，再加上我們快速重啟供應鍊和製造工廠的能力，使我們能夠克服起步緩慢的問題，最終實現9% 的增長年。國際和 PG&A 銷售也很強勁，並且嵌入到各自的細分市場中。

International sales increased 24% in the fourth quarter, which includes approximately 5 percentage points of benefit from foreign currency rates. All regions grew sales double-digit percent for the quarter as vehicle supply improved. Full year international sales were up 1%, with Latin America and Asia Pacific realizing sales growth. EMEA sales declined for the year due to vehicle supply constraints and sporadic COVID-related shutdowns in various countries throughout the year. Our Parts, Garments and Accessories sales increased 31% during the quarter and 19% for the full year.

第四季度國際銷售額增長 24%，其中外幣匯率帶來約 5 個百分點的收益。隨著汽車供應的改善，本季度所有地區的銷售額均實現兩位數增長。全年國際銷售額增長 1%，其中拉丁美洲和亞太地區實現銷售額增長。由於車輛供應限制以及各國因新冠疫情導致的零星停工，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷量今年有所下降。我們的零件、服裝和配飾銷售額在本季度增長了 31%，全年增長了 19%。

Turning now to 2021 guidance. With the strong momentum coming out of 2020, we are anticipating a record year for 2021. Our guidance for the full year 2021 is as follows: total company adjusted sales are expected to be up in the range of 13% to 16% versus 2020. The 2021 sales growth includes the following assumptions: the overall North American powersports market and Polaris retail sales are expected to decline from 2020, given the strong new customer growth we in the industry enjoyed most of last year. We anticipate the industry will be down high single digits for the year, with share gain trends continuing for Polaris into 2021. The pontoon industry is also expected to decline slightly on a year-over-year basis, with our pontoon business expected to return to share gains for the full year.

現在轉向 2021 年指導。憑藉 2020 年的強勁勢頭，我們預計 2021 年將創下紀錄。我們對 2021 年全年的指導如下：公司調整後的總銷售額預計將比 2020 年增長 13% 至 16%。2021 年的銷售增長包括以下假設：鑑於去年該行業的新客戶增長強勁，整個北美動力運動市場和 Polaris 零售額預計將從 2020 年開始下降。我們預計該行業今年將出現高個位數下降，而 Polaris 的份額增長趨勢將持續到 2021 年。預計浮箱行業同比也將小幅下滑，而我們的浮箱業務預計將在全年恢復份額增長。

While we expect full year 2021 retail to be down from the incredibly strong 2020 market, versus 2019 levels, 2021 retail will still be up 15%, which I think gives you a good perspective on how strong our end markets remain. We anticipate average selling prices will be slightly positive in 2021 but less than 2020 as we mix more to the midsize and value-oriented vehicles and boats, and expect promotional spending to increase from 2020 levels as the overall powersports market begins to normalize in the back half of the year.

雖然我們預計2021 年全年零售額將低於2020 年極其強勁的市場水平，但與2019 年的水平相比，2021 年零售額仍將增長15%，我認為這讓您可以很好地了解我們的終端市場的強勁程度。我們預計2021 年平均售價將略有上漲，但低於2020 年，因為我們更多地混合中型和價值導向的車輛和船隻，並預計隨著整體動力運動市場開始正常化，促銷支出將從2020年的水平開始增加半年。

Adjusted earnings per share for 2021 is expected to be in the range of $8.45 to $8.75 compared to the full year 2020 adjusted EPS of $7.74, an increase of 9% to 13%. However, our performance is better than our guidance suggests, beginning with gross profit margins. We anticipate that gross profit margins will be up slightly on a year-over-year basis, driven by a number of pluses and minuses.

預計 2021 年調整後每股收益將在 8.45 美元至 8.75 美元之間，較 2020 年全年調整後每股收益 7.74 美元增長 9% 至 13%。然而，我們的業績好於我們的指導建議，從毛利率開始。我們預計，在許多優點和缺點的推動下，毛利率將同比小幅上升。

On the plus side, our manufacturing plants are expected to have a smaller backlog of vehicles needing rework as supplier constraints begin to abate, likely beginning in Q3. On the pricing side, beginning with the ORV product introductions announced 2 weeks ago, we are pricing for added features designed into our vehicles. In addition, savings from our supply chain initiative, now in its third year, are accelerating as we move into Phase III of the program.

從好的方面來說，隨著供應商限制可能從第三季度開始減輕，我們的製造工廠預計需要返工的車輛積壓會減少。在定價方面，從兩週前宣布推出 ORV 產品開始，我們正在為車輛中設計的附加功能定價。此外，隨著我​​們進入該計劃的第三階段，我們的供應鏈計劃現已進入第三年，節省的成本正在加速。

On the negative side, tariffs are expected to be a larger detractor in 2021 at the rates in place today. Our tariff costs ended 2020 at approximately $60 million, which is net of onetime exemptions and refunds received last year. If nothing changes under the Biden administration, our total tariff costs are expected to increase by approximately $40 million, which factors in both volume increases and the lack of the exemptions and refunds received in 2020. The bulk of these tariffs are from the China 301 List 1 through 4 with a modest amount of retaliatory tariffs included.

不利的一面是，按照目前的稅率，關稅預計將在 2021 年成為更大的阻力。截至 2020 年，我們的關稅成本約為 6000 萬美元，扣除去年收到的一次性豁免和退款。如果拜登政府不做出任何改變，我們的總關稅成本預計將增加約 4000 萬美元，其中包括數量增加以及 2020 年沒有收到豁免和退款的情況。這些關稅大部分來自中國301清單1至4，還包括少量報復性關稅。

Also, as I mentioned earlier, we anticipate the promotional environment to start to normalize as we go through 2021, which will be a gross profit margin headwind. In total, if you were to exclude the impact of tariffs and supply chain disruptions, our gross profit margin rate would be approximately 200 basis points higher. We will continue to focus on mitigating these items as the year develops and the new administration begins to address trade policies.

此外，正如我之前提到的，我們預計促銷環境將在 2021 年開始正常化，這將是毛利率的阻力。總的來說，如果排除關稅和供應鏈中斷的影響，我們的毛利率將高出約 200 個基點。隨著時間的推移以及新政府開始解決貿易政策問題，我們將繼續專注於緩解這些問題。

Adjusted operating expenses are expected to be about flat as a percentage of revenue with 2020. Remember, during the height of the pandemic last year, we canceled or postponed all nonessential expenditures and undertook employee-related cost actions to reduce expenses and conserve cash. Given the significantly improved company performance expected in 2021, we have added back select operating expenses and certain strategic projects to remain competitive and continue to innovate in our respective market segments. The reinstatement of the previously postponed expenses and projects equates to about half of the mid-teens dollar increase in operating expenses in 2021.

調整後的運營費用佔收入的比例預計與 2020 年持平。請記住，在去年疫情最嚴重的時期，我們取消或推遲了所有非必要支出，並採取了與員工相關的成本行動，以減少開支並節省現金。鑑於預計 2021 年公司業績將顯著改善，我們增加了部分運營費用和某些戰略項目，以保持競爭力並繼續在各自的細分市場進行創新。先前推遲的費用和項目的恢復相當於 2021 年運營費用增幅的一半左右。

Income from financial services is expected to be down, given lower retail assumptions impacting our retail financing income, partially offset by an increase in wholesale financing income as dealer inventory levels increased throughout the year. Retail financing availability remains at acceptable levels. Interest expense is expected to decline about 20% in 2021 from lower debt levels as we modulate between debt reduction and share repurchase throughout the year. I will talk more about our 2021 capital allocation priorities shortly.

鑑於較低的零售假設影響了我們的零售融資收入，預計金融服務收入將下降，但由於全年經銷商庫存水平增加，批發融資收入的增加部分抵消了這一影響。零售融資可用性仍處於可接受的水平。隨著我們全年在債務削減和股票回購之間進行調整，預計 2021 年利息支出將從較低的債務水平下降約 20%。我很快將詳細討論我們 2021 年的資本配置優先事項。

The income tax rate is expected to be in the range of 23.5% to 24% for the full year 2021 as our rate reverts back to a more normalized level. Share count is expected to be up 1% in 2021, which is a combination of expected dilution from compensation plans, offset somewhat by the reinstitution of share repurchases given our strong liquidity position. After first focusing on organic investment and returns to our investors via the dividend, our capital allocation plan pivots to our share buyback program as we view our own stock as an attractive investment.

隨著稅率恢復到更加正常化的水平，預計 2021 年全年所得稅稅率將在 23.5% 至 24% 之間。預計 2021 年股票數量將增加 1%，這是薪酬計劃預期稀釋的綜合結果，但考慮到我們強勁的流動性狀況，重新實施股票回購在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。在首先關注有機投資並通過股息回報投資者之後，我們的資本分配計劃轉向我們的股票回購計劃，因為我們認為自己的股票是一項有吸引力的投資。

Lastly, the currency rates for both the euro and Canadian dollar, which have the largest currency impact to our financials, are assumed to be above 2020 average levels, which we anticipate will have a positive impact on results. We expect currency will be a tailwind to pretax profits of approximately $10 million. We have planned 2021 assuming the average euro-U. S. dollar rate at $1.18, and the Canadian-U. S. dollar rate at $0.76. While currency rates have recently been trading above these, we are seeing a somewhat offsetting impact with the commodity markets.

最後，假設歐元和加元（這兩種貨幣對我們的財務影響最大）的匯率高於 2020 年的平均水平，我們預計這將對業績產生積極影響。我們預計貨幣將成為約 1000 萬美元稅前利潤的推動力。我們計劃 2021 年假設歐元與美國的平均水平。美元匯率為 1.18 美元，加拿大美元匯率為 1.18 美元。美元匯率為 0.76 美元。雖然匯率最近一直高於這些水平，但我們看到商品市場受到了一定程度的抵消影響。

Given the unique events of 2020, the quarterly sales and earnings cadence was far from normal, given the pandemic impact. Let me give you some clarity on how we see this year playing out, given those nuances. In a normal year, our first half/second half results are split approximately 40% and 60%, respectively. In 2020, that split was 20% for the first half and 80% for the second, given the pandemic's impact on demand and production. For 2021, we are anticipating the first half/second half split to revert back to a more normal cadence of approximately 40%/60% split.

鑑於 2020 年的特殊事件，考慮到大流行的影響，季度銷售和盈利節奏遠非正常。考慮到這些細微差別，讓我澄清一下我們對今年的情況的看法。在正常年份，我們上半年和下半年的業績分別約為 40% 和 60%。考慮到疫情對需求和生產的影響，2020 年上半年這一比例為 20%，下半年為 80%。對於 2021 年，我們預計上半場/下半年的劃分將恢復到大約 40%/60% 劃分的更正常節奏。

Looking a bit deeper into the first half of 2021, I'd also add that we anticipate the cadence for EPS between Q1 and Q2 to also be more in the normal cadence range, with Q1 EPS in the 40% range and Q2 about 60% of the first half 2021 expectations. Sales in the first half are expected to be about evenly split between the first and second quarter on a percentage change basis. We expect sales increases in the second half will be weighted more towards the third quarter.

更深入地展望2021 年上半年，我還想補充一點，我們預計第一季度和第二季度之間的EPS 節奏也將更多地處於正常節奏範圍內，第一季度EPS 在40% 範圍內，第二季度約為60% 2021 年上半年的預期。按百分比變化計算，上半年銷售額預計將在第一季度和第二季度之間平均分配。我們預計下半年的銷售增長將更多地體現在第三季度。

Now moving on to our sales guidance by segment. We expect all segments to grow sales in 2021 as we drive to meet the ongoing strong demand and replenish dealer inventory levels. The expectations by segment are shown on the current slide. On a gross margin segment reporting basis, we expect all segments' gross profit margins to be flat or slightly improve over 2020 on a comparable basis. See the supplemental section of this presentation for additional details around our gross profit margin expectations. Operating cash flow finished 2020 at $1.019 billion, a 55% increase over 2019 and a new milestone for Polaris of exceeding $1 billion in operating cash flow in a given year. We anticipate 2021 operating cash flow will be down from 2020 and as we rebuild finished goods inventory to more acceptable levels.

現在繼續我們按細分市場的銷售指導。我們預計，隨著我們努力滿足持續強勁的需求並補充經銷商庫存水平，所有細分市場的銷售額將在 2021 年實現增長。當前幻燈片顯示了按細分市場劃分的預期。在毛利率分部報告的基礎上，我們預計所有分部的毛利率將與 2020 年持平或在可比基礎上略有提高。有關我們的毛利率預期的更多詳細信息，請參閱本演示文稿的補充部分。2020 年運營現金流達到 10.19 億美元，比 2019 年增長 55%，成為 Polaris 當年運營現金流超過 10 億美元的新里程碑。我們預計 2021 年的經營現金流將比 2020 年有所下降，並且我們將成品庫存重建到更可接受的水平。

Let me summarize our capital deployment priorities and expectations for 2021. Capital expenditures are expected to increase from 2020 levels to approximately $250 million, which includes tooling required to support new product introductions, the supply chain transformation program, and various strategic initiatives. Dividends remain a key priority for the company with our 25-year track record of consistently increasing dividends to shareholders, and we expect to continue that trend for a 26th year.

讓我總結一下我們2021年的資金部署重點和預期。資本支出預計將從 2020 年的水平增加到約 2.5 億美元，其中包括支持新產品推出、供應鏈轉型計劃和各種戰略舉措所需的工具。股息仍然是公司的一個關鍵優先事項，我們有 25 年持續增加股東股息的記錄，我們預計將持續這一趨勢第 26 年。

Our debt to total capital ratio of 56% is down from the 2020 ratio of 60% as anticipated. Our focus in 2020 was on cash preservation and debt reduction for obvious reasons. But in 2021, given our cash position and the outlook for the year, we will pivot to a combination of debt reduction and share repurchases, given market conditions. Our long-term goal is to keep the share count at least flat, but we were out of the market in 2020 for the previously noted reasons. For the full year 2021, we are currently planning to spend approximately $250 million on share repurchases to help offset the dilutive impact of the stock compensation plans. We will adjust our thinking as market conditions dictate.

我們的債務與總資本比率為 56%，低於預期的 2020 年 60%。出於顯而易見的原因，我們 2020 年的重點是現金保存和債務削減。但到 2021 年，考慮到我們的現金狀況和今年的前景，我們將根據市場條件轉向債務削減和股票回購相結合。我們的長期目標是保持股票數量至少持平，但由於之前提到的原因，我們在 2020 年退出了市場。對於 2021 年全年，我們目前計劃花費約 2.5 億美元用於股票回購，以幫助抵消股票薪酬計劃的攤薄影響。我們將根據市場情況調整我們的想法。

With that, I will now turn it back over to Mike for some final thoughts.

至此，我現在將把它轉回給邁克，以供他最後的思考。

Thanks, Bob. 2020 is now behind us, but the impact of the pandemic is far from over. We expect the overall economic outlook will be tenuous as the country resets from the events of 2020: COVID-19, social unrest, contentious elections, new leadership in Washington, D.C., and the list goes on. However, the company has never been positioned better with innovative products, leading technologies, state-of-the-art plants and the best team in powersports to lead us through 2021. While we anticipate the North American retail demand profile to moderate from the 25% growth realized in 2020, we expect a continued healthy retail environment driven by new customers and the demand for our core powersports consumers.

謝謝，鮑勃。2020年已經過去，但疫情的影響還遠未結束。我們預計，隨著該國從 2020 年的事件中恢復過來，整體經濟前景將變得脆弱：COVID-19、社會動盪、有爭議的選舉、華盛頓特區的新領導層等等。然而，該公司憑藉創新產品、領先技術、最先進的工廠和動力運動領域最優秀的團隊，以前所未有的優勢引領我們度過 2021 年。雖然我們預計北美零售需求狀況將從 2020 年實現的 25% 增長放緩，但我們預計新客戶和核心動力運動消費者的需求將推動零售環境持續健康。

Also, as we've demonstrated this year and throughout our history, we have plans in place to rapidly respond to changing demand signals. For 2021, our path is clear: continue to keep our employees safe; work relentlessly to improve supply chain to meet demand and replenish dealer inventory; and continue to focus on our strategic priorities: delivering high-quality vehicles, leveraging our strategic sourcing initiative, amplifying our digital offerings, and preparing for the foreseeable shift to more electrified vehicles. With that, I'll turn it over to Chuck to open the line for questions.

此外，正如我們今年和整個歷史所證明的那樣，我們已製定計劃來快速響應不斷變化的需求信號。2021 年，我們的道路很明確：繼續保障員工安全；不懈努力改善供應鏈以滿足需求並補充經銷商庫存；並繼續專注於我們的戰略重點：提供高質量的車輛，利用我們的戰略採購計劃，擴大我們的數字產品，並為可預見的向電動汽車的轉變做好準備。這樣，我會將其轉交給查克，以打開提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Robin Farley with UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley。

Great. Obviously, great results and guidance. Just looking at the guidance for '21, and you addressed some of this in how 2020 was kind of an unusual split. It looks like, if my math is right, that your implied guidance is actually an acceleration in the second half growth rate versus the first half growth rate if you compare it to 2019, like a normalized year that there's an acceleration actually in the second half.

偉大的。顯然，這是很好的結果和指導。只要看看 21 年的指導，你就談到了 2020 年是一個不尋常的分裂中的一些問題。如果我的數學正確的話，如果你將其與2019 年進行比較，你的隱含指導實際上是下半年增長率相對於上半年增長率的加速，就像標準化的一年，下半年實際上有加速。

And I guess I still though would like to think about upside. So the question is how much potential is there if supply constraints were able to be fixed sooner? If you could sort of think about what range potentially could be in terms of upside there? And then also, even though your guidance already implies this acceleration in the second half, how much of the $40 million of incremental tariffs is actually falling in the second half, right?

我想我仍然想考慮積極的一面。那麼問題是，如果供應限制能夠更快得到解決，潛力有多大？您是否可以考慮一下那裡的上行空間可能在什麼範圍內？另外，儘管您的指導已經暗示下半年會出現這種加速，但 4000 萬美元的增量關稅中有多少實際上是在下半年下降的，對嗎？

In other words, I'm wondering if your underlying guidance, if it weren't for tariffs, would like to kind of be able to see what the acceleration implied in your guidance if it weren't for the tariffs. So is the $40 million all a second half? Or is that spread out from your side? It looked like a lot of it may be in the second half.

換句話說，我想知道您的基本指導（如果不是關稅）是否希望能夠了解您的指導中暗示的加速（如果不是關稅）。那麼這4000萬美元都是下半年的嗎？或者是從你這邊散開的？看起來很多可能是在下半場。

Well, Robin, let me address the question around the acceleration. Certainly, from a production standpoint, we're doing everything we can to accelerate. I mean you can see from the chart around capacity utilization, things are getting better as we go. And part of that is we're relieving a fair amount of the -- starting with parts in Q2 and then really our vehicles in Q3. That's when we anticipate relieving the bulk of the supply chain constraints and then we'll be off and running.

好吧，羅賓，讓我解決有關加速度的問題。當然，從生產的角度來看，我們正在盡一切努力來加速。我的意思是，您可以從產能利用率圖表中看到，隨著我們的發展，情況正在變得更好。其中一部分是我們正在減輕相當多的負擔——從第二季度的零部件開始，然後是第三季度的車輛。那時我們預計會解除大部分供應鏈限制，然後我們就會開始運行。

As you can see on the chart, we actually fall below the utilization. And as Bob indicated in his prepared remarks, we've got an expectation that retail is down. I can tell you that for January, retail is running stronger than we expected. And so to the extent that retail holds up at a higher level, we can obviously pivot later in the year to be in a position to produce.

正如您在圖表中看到的，我們實際上低於利用率。正如鮑勃在他準備好的講話中指出的那樣，我們預計零售業會下降。我可以告訴你，一月份零售業的表現比我們預期的要強。因此，只要零售業保持在較高水平，我們顯然可以在今年晚些時候轉向，以便能夠生產。

The other thing I'd point out, I made this comment in my prepared remarks. Even though our dealers are more capable now, given our enhancements to RFM, to operate at lower dealer inventory levels than say they were in 2019 or '18, we still anticipate being short of where they need to be by the end of the year. So there's still going to be factory -- or I'm sorry, channel fill that's going to have to happen as we get into 2022 predicated on the forecast we have for retail.

我要指出的另一件事是，我在準備好的發言中發表了這一評論。儘管考慮到我們對 RFM 的增強，我們的經銷商現在更有能力以比 2019 年或 18 年更低的經銷商庫存水平運營，但我們仍然預計到今年年底仍達不到他們需要的水平。因此，仍然會有工廠——或者我很抱歉，根據我們對零售業的預測，進入 2022 年時，渠道填充必然會發生。

So certainly, if things end up playing out better from a retail standpoint, we've got a little bit of flexibility in the back half to work through that and enhance delivery. And we're going to continue to keep an eye on that. We planned, I would say, relatively conservative in terms of that back half from a retail expectation standpoint, just given how strong retail performance was starting in Q2. And there's just a lot of unknowns in terms of how long will the COVID shutdowns and sputtering starts -- go on for. And so we'll keep an eye on that.

因此，當然，如果從零售的角度來看事情最終會變得更好，我們在後半部分有一點靈活性來解決這個問題並提高交付。我們將繼續關注這一點。我想說，考慮到第二季度開始的強勁零售表現，從零售預期的角度來看，我們的計劃相對保守。就新冠疫情導致的停工和混亂開始持續多久而言，還有很多未知數。所以我們會密切關注這一點。

What I would say is from a supply chain management standpoint, the team has done an excellent job. I mean you think about the fourth quarter, we were able to gain share, and we were facing a lot of these same constraints. And while we weren't able to get as much inventory into the channel as the dealers would have liked, relative to our competitors, we did a much better job. Bob, you want to handle the tariff question?

我想說的是，從供應鏈管理的角度來看，該團隊做得非常出色。我的意思是，你想想第四季度，我們能夠獲得份額，但我們面臨著很多同樣的限制。雖然我們無法像經銷商希望的那樣獲得足夠多的庫存，但相對於我們的競爭對手，我們做得更好。鮑勃，你想處理關稅問題嗎？

Sure. So Robin, to think about tariffs, the bulk of the tariff impact will happen in the first half of the year because that's when we receive a lot of the refunds and exemptions from last year. So that moderates in the second half.

當然。羅賓，考慮一下關稅，大部分關稅影響將發生在今年上半年，因為那時我們收到了去年的大量退款和豁免。因此下半年情況會有所緩和。

That's offset somewhat by promo and flooring, which kind of are the opposite. In the first half, promo and flooring are a bit of a tailwind, given the strong retail environment. And then we see the powersports markets returning more to normal in the second half. So then promo becomes a headwind as you look versus 2020.

這在一定程度上被促銷和地板所抵消，兩者是相反的。上半年，鑑於強勁的零售環境，促銷和地板銷售有點順風順水。然後我們看到動力運動市場在下半年恢復正常。因此，與 2020 年相比，促銷活動將成為一種逆風。

Our next question will come from James Hardiman with Wedbush Securities.

我們的下一個問題將來自韋德布什證券公司的詹姆斯·哈迪曼。

Sounds like this CEO stuff isn't that hard, huh, Mike? Great quarter here.

聽起來 CEO 的事情並不難，是吧，邁克？這裡很棒。

Thanks.

謝謝。

So as I think about this guide, and I know you guys don't or have never given really sort of quarterly retail guidance. But just maybe order of magnitude, as I think about this high single-digit powersports industry decline for the year. Can you help get us on the same page in terms of what that looks like over the course of the year?

因此，當我思考這份指南時，我知道你們沒有或從未給出過真正的季度零售指導。但考慮到今年動力運動行業的高個位數下滑，可能只是一個數量級。您能否幫助我們就這一年的情況達成共識？

Obviously, in the second quarter, you're going to be comping this monster 60% ORV number. I would assume that the assumption is that we're down, I don't know, 30%, 40%, 50% in the second quarter. But maybe just corral us so that we're on the same page and we don't have any massive surprises as we work our way through the year from a retail perspective.

顯然，在第二季度，你將計算這個怪物 60% 的 ORV 數字。我假設第二季度我們的業績下降了 30%、40%、50%，我不知道。但也許只是讓我們團結起來，這樣我們就可以達成一致，並且從零售的角度來看這一年的工作，我們就不會遇到任何巨大的意外。

Yes. James, I think you're thinking about it the right way. I mean if you look at Slide #5 we had in the deck where we show the quarterly profile. I mean, retail was down 8%, Q1 up 57%. I think that's probably going to be the most exaggerated year-over-year comps. And then clearly with an assumption that we're going to be down high single digits for the year, comping 15% and 28%, we're going to be likely down in Q3 and Q4.

是的。詹姆斯，我認為你的思考方式是正確的。我的意思是，如果你看一下幻燈片#5，我們在幻燈片中展示了季度概況。我的意思是，零售業下降了 8%，第一季度增長了 57%。我認為這可能是最誇張的同比比較。然後顯然，假設我們今年將出現高個位數下降，分別下降 15% 和 28%，那麼我們在第三季度和第四季度可能會出現下降。

But I think the more dramatic shifts is Q1 would likely be up this year. And Q2 would obviously be down probably pretty significantly, just given a pretty high comp. And then things will start to level out from there.

但我認為更戲劇性的變化是今年第一季度可能會上升。考慮到相當高的競爭，第二季度顯然可能會大幅下降。然後事情就會開始趨於平穩。

Got it. And then I wanted to circle back to this -- the capacity utilization slide, which seems to be conveying an awful lot of information. I just want to make sure I'm looking at this right.

知道了。然後我想回到這一點——產能利用率幻燈片，它似乎傳達了非常多的信息。我只是想確保我的看法是正確的。

I guess first off, it sort of looks like the first half, just eyeballing, it looks like it's up a lot more than 30%. Maybe I shouldn't be translating that into sort of sales. But then to the previous point about the fourth quarter production being down year-over-year and sequentially, I guess why would that be the case, given the fact that you still don't expect inventories in the channel to be back to where you'd like them to be by the end of the year?

我想首先，看起來有點像上半年，只是目測，看起來上漲了 30% 以上。也許我不應該將其轉化為某種銷售。但是，關於第四季度產量同比和連續下降的前一點，我想為什麼會出現這種情況，因為您仍然不希望渠道中的庫存回到您的水平希望他們能在今年年底前完成嗎？

And I know you said you're leaving yourself some room in the back half. But I guess even in this base-case scenario, it almost seems like you would want to improve inventories once you get into the off-season next year.

我知道你說過你要在後半場給自己留一些空間。但我想即使在這種基本情況下，一旦進入明年淡季，您似乎也希望改善庫存。

Yes, I mean I think you hit on it, James. We're trying to play this careful because we're going to keep a watchful eye as retail continues to play out. You're right. I mean when you look at the first half of the chart, I mean when you look at the additional capacity we need to be able to meet demand and the spikes that we've got in our production, we're doing everything we can. And we're only as good as what we've seen in terms of -- we still continue to have a number of suppliers who are behind schedule. The port situation, quite frankly, is actually getting worse by the day, not better. And so we know that we're going to be fighting that.

是的，我的意思是我認為你想到了這一點，詹姆斯。我們之所以如此謹慎，是因為我們將密切關注零​​售業的持續發展。你說得對。我的意思是，當你查看圖表的前半部分時，我的意思是，當你查看我們滿足需求所需的額外產能以及我們生產中的峰值時，我們正在竭盡全力。我們的表現與我們所看到的一樣好——我們仍然有一些供應商落後於計劃。坦率地說，港口的情況實際上是在日益惡化，而不是好轉。所以我們知道我們將與之抗爭。

And then you just have an overall backdrop. I think you've probably heard this from many other companies in terms of absenteeism rates that hit into the 20% range, which makes it incredibly difficult from a factory management perspective. And the team is doing everything we can. I think if retail ends up playing out a little bit better than we're expecting, you can certainly expect to see that fourth quarter bar moving in a much different direction.

然後你就有了一個整體背景。我想您可能已經從許多其他公司聽說過，缺勤率高達 20%，從工廠管理的角度來看，這使得缺勤變得異常困難。團隊正在盡我們所能。我認為，如果零售業的表現最終比我們預期的要好一些，那麼您肯定會看到第四季度的走勢會朝著截然不同的方向發展。

But for now, we've got time to think through that. And we also want to be mindful of a, getting enough inventory into the dealer channel, but we also want to not put ourselves in a position where we're outpacing retail and get the dealers into a tough spot come 2022.

但現在，我們有時間思考這個問題。我們還希望注意，為經銷商渠道提供足夠的庫存，但我們也希望不要讓自己處於超越零售的境地，並讓經銷商在 2022 年陷入困境。

Our next question will come from Brett Andress with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Brett Andress。

Congrats on the interim roles. Following up on James' question, under the plan or the guidance that you laid out, I mean where do you think dealer inventories would be at the end of 2021, just to kind of frame up the 2022 channel fill? And then any more color on what level January retail is running at so far this month?

祝賀您擔任臨時角色。跟進詹姆斯的問題，根據您制定的計劃或指導，我的意思是您認為 2021 年底經銷商庫存會在哪裡，只是為了構建 2022 年渠道填充？那麼本月到目前為止，一月份零售額的運行水平有什麼更多的信息嗎？

Yes. So dealer inventory will be up versus where we finished '20. We're probably right now going to be 20% to 30% shy of the dealer inventory levels that we would like to have in the channel.

是的。因此，與 20 世紀末相比，經銷商庫存將會增加。我們現在可能比我們希望在渠道中擁有的經銷商庫存水平低 20% 到 30%。

Obviously, that has a lot of variables, right? It's the cadence of retail, it's our cadence of production. So that -- you've got to be careful with that number. And certainly, we'll continue to monitor that and drive to improve the level of performance.

顯然，這有很多變數，對吧？這是零售的節奏，也是我們的生產節奏。所以——你必須小心這個數字。當然，我們將繼續監控這一點並努力提高性能水平。

What we've seen so far with January is substantially better than we were expecting. But I would just caution you, January is always the smallest month we have.

到目前為止，我們在一月份看到的情況比我們預期的要好得多。但我想提醒您，一月始終是我們最小的月份。

We do know that a number of you go out and do surveys of the dealer network and we do our own survey work. And the interesting point is that January usually is a very low foot traffic time for the dealers, and they've actually reported that's not the case.

我們確實知道你們中的許多人出去對經銷商網絡進行調查，而我們自己進行調查工作。有趣的是，一月份對於經銷商來說通常是客流量非常低的時間，但他們實際上報告情況並非如此。

So I don't think it's a surprise. I think people are anticipating that the current pandemic environment and the stay-at-home orders and the real pivot to wanting to be outside is probably going to continue into the foreseeable future just in light of a slower-than-anticipated vaccine rollout and just given the current state of the economy.

所以我認為這並不奇怪。我認為，人們預計，當前的大流行環境、居家令以及想要外出的真正轉向可能會持續到可預見的未來，因為疫苗的推出速度慢於預期，而且鑑於目前的經濟狀況。

Got it. Okay. And then just one quick one here. Just how are you thinking about the new product launches? So 2020 obviously unique year. 2021 probably going to be just as unique. I mean but do you plan to stick to the usual July launches for ORV? Or has all this caused you to maybe rethink when and how you put new products into the market?

知道了。好的。然後這裡只是一個快速的。您對新產品的發布有何看法？所以 2020 年顯然是獨特的一年。2021 年可能也會同樣獨特。我的意思是，但是你們打算堅持 7 月發布 ORV 的慣例嗎？或者這一切是否讓您重新思考何時以及如何將新產品推向市場？

No. I think as we've demonstrated, I mean we -- as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we just launched a couple of new RANGER models and the completely refreshed Trail lineup, which -- I mean they look great for the RZR. I think we've seen that having a cadence that gets information out when it's ready probably works a lot better than trying to wait to do everything in July. And as I said in my prepared remarks, we've got a lot of great stuff coming, and we're really excited about it.

不。我認為正如我們所展示的那樣，我的意思是，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們剛剛推出了幾款新的RANGER 車型和完全更新的Trail 系列，我的意思是它們看起來非常適合RZR。我認為我們已經看到，在信息準備好時就將其發佈出去的節奏可能比試圖等到 7 月份才做所有事情要好得多。正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們即將推出很多很棒的東西，我們對此感到非常興奮。

Our next question will come from Scott Stember with CL King.

我們的下一個問題將由 Scott Stember 和 CL King 提出。

Congrats on a great quarter, guys. Mike, maybe just to frame things out a little bit or even more from a demand standpoint and versus your capacity. If somebody wants to walk into an ORV dealer right now, whether they're looking to buy a RZR or a hot selling RZR, what's the lead time to actually get it right now? Are we talking about being able to get it in a reasonable amount of time within this season? And how will that improve as the year progresses with your capacity plans?

伙計們，恭喜你們度過了一個出色的季度。邁克，也許只是從需求的角度和你的能力來稍微甚至更多地闡述一些事情。如果有人現在想走進 ORV 經銷商，無論他們是想購買 RZR 還是熱銷 RZR，現在實際購買的交貨時間是多少？我們是在談論能夠在本賽季合理的時間內獲得它嗎？隨著今年產能計劃的進展，這種情況將如何改善？

Well, I'll answer the second part. It's going to improve substantially. But I would tell you is Steve Menneto and his team have done a really outstanding job of working that specific issue, and they've done it through a couple of different things. One, we've gotten -- I would say we've made it a core competency in terms of being able to identify inventory in different pockets and be able to move it between dealers to ensure that the dealer can make the sale.

嗯，我來回答第二部分。情況將會有很大的改善。但我要告訴你的是，史蒂夫·門內托（Steve Menneto）和他的團隊在解決這個具體問題方面做得非常出色，他們通過幾件不同的事情做到了這一點。一，我想說，我們已經將其作為一項核心能力，能夠識別不同口袋中的庫存，並能夠在經銷商之間轉移庫存，以確保經銷商能夠進行銷售。

The other thing is, is that we have increased our pre-sold vehicles, so vehicles coming out of the factory, essentially sixfold from what we had historically been doing. And so what that does is that enables the dealer to capture the sale and give the visibility to the customer of when that RZR is going to show up or RANGER, whatever product they're looking for.

另一件事是，我們增加了預售車輛，因此出廠的車輛數量基本上是我們歷史上的六倍。因此，這樣做的作用是使經銷商能夠捕獲銷售情況，並向客戶提供 RZR 或 RANGER 何時出現的可見性，無論他們正在尋找什麼產品。

So I'd answer it generically because it's tough to just throw a number out, but it's longer than we would like. But at the same time, I think the team is managing incredibly well. And I think we're, as evidenced by the fourth quarter where we were facing a fair amount of demand and a lot of constriction in the dealer inventory levels, we were in a better position than many of our customers -- or competitors.

所以我會籠統地回答這個問題，因為很難直接拋出一個數字，但它比我們想要的要長。但與此同時，我認為團隊的管理非常好。我認為，正如第四季度所證明的那樣，我們面臨著相當大的需求和經銷商庫存水平的大量收縮，我們比我們的許多客戶或競爭對手處於更好的地位。

Yes. And my last question in Aftermarket, obviously. The stuff that's tied to your unit sales certainly killing it, but TAP still seems to be about flattish. I know you've been discontinuing, I guess, some lower-margin sales there. Is that still going on? And maybe do we just parse things out about how we should look at TAP for 2021?

是的。顯然，這是我在售後市場的最後一個問題。與單位銷量相關的東西肯定會扼殺牠，但 TAP 似乎仍然表現平平。我猜你已經停止了那裡的一些低利潤銷售。這種情況還在繼續嗎？也許我們只是解析一下我們應該如何看待 2021 年的 TAP？

Yes. I'd say a couple of things. One, TAP got obviously severely impacted much more than our powersports business in the first half. And we've seen a steady improvement over the course of the back half of the year. Your question around exiting some of the non -- unprofitable parts of the business, I think we're largely done with that, but that certainly impacted 2020's revenue.

是的。我想說幾件事。第一，上半年TAP受到的影響顯然比我們的動力運動業務嚴重得多。今年下半年我們看到了穩步改善。你關於退出業務中一些非盈利部分的問題，我認為我們基本上已經完成了，但這肯定會影響 2020 年的收入。

What I would say is on our retail side, whether that be in the e-commerce channel or through our 4-wheel parts retail stores, we actually saw single-digit growth rate here in the back half. And we're encouraged with that, and we think that those levels of performance are going to continue into 2021. Craig and the team have done a lot work to restructure that business, and we feel like it's poised for much better performance in 2021.

我想說的是，在我們的零售方面，無論是在電子商務渠道還是通過我們的四輪零部件零售店，我們實際上在後半段看到了個位數的增長率。我們對此感到鼓舞，我們認為這種表現水平將持續到 2021 年。Craig 和團隊為重組該業務做了大量工作，我們認為該業務有望在 2021 年取得更好的業績。

Our next question will come from Joe Altobello with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題將由喬·阿爾托貝洛和雷蒙德·詹姆斯提出。

First question. I just wanted to discuss some of the efforts that you guys are making with your suppliers to ease some of these constraints, given that most of the issues or most of the bottleneck is really out of your control.

第一個問題。我只是想討論一下你們與供應商為緩解其中一些限製而所做的一些努力，因為大多數問題或大部分瓶頸確實超出了您的控制範圍。

Yes. We've actually tried to take control where we can. I can tell you that we've had a couple of suppliers where we've actually jettisoned our team in, either to be on site, or to, from a virtual perspective, help manage the facility. We've also made investments, financial support, where we've had suppliers that either couldn't afford to make the investment they needed to keep up with capacity or just needed help in the near term, given the substantial ramp.

是的。事實上，我們已經盡力控制住一切。我可以告訴你，我們實際上已經拋棄了一些供應商的團隊，要么在現場，要么從虛擬的角度幫助管理設施。我們還進行了投資和財務支持，我們的供應商要么無力承擔跟上產能所需的投資，要么只是在短期內需要幫助，因為產量大幅增加。

And then we're doing a lot of work around prioritizing, whether that's making sure that we have people at the ports, making sure we're prioritizing as the containers come off, or working with the logistics providers that we have to make sure that we get prioritized. I mean thankfully, and I'll give a shameless plug for the supply chain work that we've been doing, thankfully, we were about 35% to 40% of our way through that. And the reason that's important is the familiarity we have with our customers, including our logistics provider, was so much better than it was before we started that project. And given everything that's going on, being able to leverage those relationships is incredibly important. And I can tell you the team is managing it every day.

然後，我們正在圍繞優先順序做很多工作，無論是確保我們在港口有人，確保我們在集裝箱卸下時確定優先順序，還是與物流提供商合作，我們必須確保我們得到優先考慮。我的意思是，值得慶幸的是，我會無恥地對我們一直在做的供應鏈工作表示感謝，值得慶幸的是，我們已經完成了大約 35% 到 40% 的工作。這很重要的原因是我們對客戶（包括我們的物流提供商）的熟悉程度比我們開始該項目之前要好得多。考慮到正在發生的一切，能夠利用這些關係非常重要。我可以告訴你，團隊每天都在管理它。

The other way we're working around it from a manufacturing standpoint is we're producing vehicles that may be missing 1 or 2 components and then we have the teams go back in and rework that in a very careful manner. And so we're finding every avenue we can to keep the cadence and the tempo up, and that team is executing at a level that is far beyond our expectations right now.

從製造的角度來看，我們解決這個問題的另一種方法是，我們生產的車輛可能缺少 1 或 2 個部件，然後我們讓團隊返回並以非常仔細的方式進行返工。因此，我們正在尋找一切可能的途徑來保持節奏和節奏，而該團隊目前的執行水平遠遠超出了我們的預期。

And just to follow up on that. How are you faring versus your competitors? Are you guys able to leverage your scale to sort of get in front of the line, so to speak?

只是為了跟進。與競爭對手相比，您的表現如何？可以這麼說，你們能夠利用自己的規模來走在隊伍前面嗎？

Yes. I mean I think fourth quarter speaks to it. I think part of our share loss issues earlier in the year was we had forcefully been pushing our dealer inventory levels down. And when the pandemic hit, we had a number of our competitors that had bloated inventories. And I think that they were able to bleed those off, and it played to their advantage when we were essentially trying to recover from lower inventory levels and manufacturing that had been shut down.

是的。我的意思是，我認為第四季度已經說明了這一點。我認為今年早些時候我們的份額損失問題的一部分是我們一直在大力壓低經銷商庫存水平。當大流行來襲時，我們的許多競爭對手庫存過剩。我認為他們能夠排出這些資金，當我們本質上試圖從較低的庫存水平和已關閉的生產中恢復過來時，這發揮了他們的優勢。

The fourth quarter is probably one of the best comparison points. It was kind of even, level playing field. And I think everything from the competency we have in supply chain and logistics and manufacturing to the work Steve Menneto was doing with what I think is the best dealer network out there to make sure that we were pulling on every lever we could, and I think the results speak for themselves.

第四季度可能是最好的比較點之一。這是一個公平的競爭環境。我認為，從我們在供應鏈、物流和製造方面的能力，到史蒂夫·門內托（Steve Menneto）與我認為最好的經銷商網絡所做的工作，以確保我們竭盡全力，我認為結果不言自明。

Our next question will come from Greg Badishkanian with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Greg Badishkanian。

It's actually Fred Wightman on for Greg. Mike, could I just follow up on that last comment? You guys are guiding to gain share for the year. Are we in a situation where product is really driving share in retail? Or is it really still whatever's on the dealer lot is what's selling?

實際上是弗雷德·懷特曼（Fred Wightman）代替格雷格（Greg）。邁克，我可以跟進一下最後的評論嗎？你們正在引導我們爭取今年的份額。我們是否處於產品真正推動零售份額的境地？或者經銷商賣的東西真的還是賣的東西嗎？

And if that is sort of the second case scenario, could we see some volatility on the market share side from quarter to quarter? Or do you think that we'll see, in the 4 quarters, some market share gains here?

如果這是第二種情況，我們是否會看到市場份額每個季度都會出現一些波動？或者您認為我們會在這四個季度看到一些市場份額的增長嗎？

Yes. I mean I guess for the way I would characterize it is there's probably for the next quarter or 2, there's certainly going to be a component of availability. But I would argue that with the innovation that we've announced and that we have coming, that is certainly going to drive a significant amount of demand. And I think it's demand consumers are going to be willing to wait for.

是的。我的意思是，我想我所描述的方式可能是在下一個或兩個季度，肯定會有可用性的一部分。但我認為，隨著我們已經宣布的和即將到來的創新，這肯定會推動大量的需求。我認為這是消費者願意等待的需求。

I do think that relative to the competitive set, we're in a really strong position. We're able to prioritize and get the production into the channel. We're working hand in hand with our dealers to make sure that we're prioritizing the products, and we're very confident that we'll be in a good spot. It's tough to say from a market share standpoint. I think overall yes, we are targeting to continue to gain in Motorcycles and gain in Off-Road Vehicles.

我確實認為，相對於競爭對手，我們處於非常有利的地位。我們能夠確定優先級並將生產進入渠道。我們正在與經銷商攜手合作，以確保我們優先考慮產品，並且我們非常有信心我們將處於有利位置。從市場份額的角度來看，很難說。我認為總體而言是的，我們的目標是繼續增加摩托車和越野車的銷量。

Giving a view by quarter is a tough one because we don't know what's laying in front of us. You could have a supplier issue, you could have certain shutdowns in certain regions. At this point, Steve and the team are pushing to gain share. I can tell you that coming out of the gates in January, they've got very strong performance on that front. And we like to play from a position of offense versus defense, so we're going to do everything we can to keep that momentum up.

按季度給出觀點是很困難的，因為我們不知道擺在我們面前的是什麼。您可能會遇到供應商問題，可能會在某些地區出現某些停工。此時，史蒂夫和團隊正在努力爭取份額。我可以告訴你，從一月份開始，他們在這方面就取得了非常強勁的表現。我們喜歡從進攻和防守的位置進行比賽，所以我們將盡一切努力保持這種勢頭。

Makes sense. And then could you guys just touch quickly on the ag market outlook for '21? It looks like crop prices are much stronger than they have been in a long time. But can you just give us an update on where that is in terms of percentage for mix within ORV, how exposed do you feel like you guys are to that, and what sort of tailwinds we could be thinking about this year?

說得通。那麼你們能快速談談 21 世紀的農業市場前景嗎？看來農作物價格比很長一段時間以來要強得多。但是您能否向我們介紹一下 ORV 內混合百分比的最新情況，您覺得你們對此的暴露程度如何，以及我們今年可能會考慮什麼樣的順風車？

Yes. I think our ag mix is around 11% of revenue, give or take. Strong growth last year. We see big opportunity. Steve and the team are heavily focused. Texas is one of our largest opportunities. It is our largest market for the company and specifically around RANGER.

是的。我認為我們的農業組合大約佔收入的 11%，無論多少。去年增長強勁。我們看到了巨大的機會。史蒂夫和團隊非常專注。德克薩斯州是我們最大的機會之一。這是我們公司最大的市場，特別是 RANGER 周圍的市場。

And I think when you look at the product and you look at the introduction that we had this year, you know that they're using those vehicles not only on their property, but they're also using them to recreate. And so when we announced things like the Big Game and the Waterfowl Edition, those are really aimed at the heart of the market. And we're confident with the innovation that we've got in that business that we're going to do quite well this year.

我認為，當您查看該產品並查看我們今年的介紹時，您就會知道他們不僅在自己的財產上使用這些車輛，而且還使用它們進行重建。因此，當我們宣布 Big Game 和 Waterfowl Edition 等產品時，它們確實是針對市場的核心。我們對該業務的創新充滿信心，今年我們將做得很好。

The next question will come from Craig Kennison with Baird.

下一個問題將由克雷格·肯尼森和貝爾德提出。

Congratulations, Mike and Bob, on your new roles. First question is on RFM. Just wondering. Are you setting RFM parameters in the same way you did pre-pandemic? Or do you think you might be able to run with lower structural inventory in ways that might protect dealer profitability and make your dealer network stronger?

邁克和鮑勃，恭喜你們擔任新職務。第一個問題是關於 RFM 的。就是想。您是否按照大流行前的方式設置 RFM 參數？或者您是否認為您可以以較低的結構性庫存來運營，從而保護經銷商的盈利能力並增強您的經銷商網絡？

Yes. Craig, I'd actually made a couple of statements in my prepared remarks because I wanted to try and get that out there. So I'm glad you asked.

是的。克雷格，實際上我在準備好的發言中發表了一些聲明，因為我想嘗試將其表達出來。所以我很高興你問了。

Yes, we have recognized through this process that there are ways for us to be better at how we deliver. And so we are targeting inventory levels that are below, say, where we were in 2019. And if you think relative to where we were back, say, in '15 or '16, that's a pretty substantial improvement. Because what we had targeted back in the '18/'19 time frame was much improved over 2015.

是的，我們通過這個過程認識到，我們有辦法更好地交付。因此，我們的目標庫存水平低於 2019 年的水平。如果你想想相對於我們回到的狀態，比如 15 年或 16 年，那是一個相當大的進步。因為我們在 18/19 年時間範圍內的目標比 2015 年有了很大改善。

So it comes back to the agility we've got in our supply chain. I think a lot of the work we're doing around getting vehicles essentially presold so that gives you better demand identification. I think the work that Steve Menneto and his team are doing, we've got much better linkage in terms of how we're coming up with demand forecast, this feedback we're getting out of the sales force and working with the dealer. I think all those pieces are coming together to put us in a position to be able to run the business and run the dealers with a leaner level of inventory.

所以這又回到了我們供應鏈中的敏捷性。我認為我們所做的很多工作基本上都是圍繞預售車輛進行的，這樣可以讓您更好地識別需求。我認為史蒂夫·門內托（Steve Menneto）和他的團隊正在做的工作，在我們如何提出需求預測、我們從銷售人員那裡獲得反饋以及與經銷商合作方面，我們有了更好的聯繫。我認為所有這些因素結合在一起，使我們能夠以更精簡的庫存水平經營業務和經營經銷商。

All that said, as we're looking at it for 2021, we're still not even going to be able to get to those levels unless some of these supplier issues abate faster. And it also hinges on what happens with retail.

儘管如此，當我們展望 2021 年時，我們仍然無法達到這些水平，除非其中一些供應商問題得到更快的緩解。這還取決於零售業的情況。

And then maybe a bigger picture question on inflation. Just given the excess liquidity and the overall economy and the way things have played out, how is your business set up to handle inflation?

然後也許是關於通貨膨脹的更大問題。鑑於流動性過剩和整體經濟以及事情的發展方式，您的企業如何應對通貨膨脹？

It's a good question. I think we've planned for what we can see. I think Bob made the comments that we planned our foreign exchange rates a little bit conservative, knowing that the typical offset is commodities. And quite frankly, we're seeing that play out I wouldn't say perfectly, but pretty close.

這是一個好問題。我想我們已經為我們能看到的做好了計劃。我認為鮑勃評論說我們計劃的外匯匯率有點保守，因為他知道典型的抵消是大宗商品。坦率地說，我們看到的結果我不能說是完美的，但已經非常接近了。

I think from a pricing standpoint, certainly we've built in, as Bob indicated, more promotional costs in the back half of the year, recognizing that we and our competitors are going to get better in terms of getting inventory into the channel. And as inventory improves, that puts more competitive pressure into the marketplace. And I think from a wage and labor standpoint, we, as we always do, we've got a pretty good process to make sure we capture that.

我認為從定價的角度來看，正如鮑勃所指出的那樣，我們肯定會在今年下半年增加促銷成本，因為我們認識到我們和我們的競爭對手在將庫存納入渠道方面將會做得更好。隨著庫存的增加，這會給市場帶來更大的競爭壓力。我認為，從工資和勞動力的角度來看，我們一如既往地擁有一個非常好的流程來確保我們抓住這一點。

So I think we have everything in. Tariffs is the big question mark for us in terms of the major year-over-year cost increase. And we're optimistic. We're obviously working every angle we can with the new administration, recognizing that they've only had feet on the ground now for a little over a week or so.

所以我認為我們已經擁有了一切。就成本同比大幅增長而言，關稅對我們來說是一個大問號。我們很樂觀。顯然，我們正在與新政府合作，從各個角度進行合作，認識到他們現在才踏上實地一周多一點的時間。

And the good news is that the USTR nominee, Katherine Tai is -- she's tough on China, so I don't suspect we're going to see any change in stance. And certainly, that hasn't been the rhetoric coming out of the administration. But they are on the record suggesting that the tariff approach hasn't been the most optimal.

好消息是，美國貿易代表辦公室提名人凱瑟琳·戴對中國態度強硬，所以我不認為我們的立場會發生任何變化。當然，這並不是政府的言論。但他們公開表示，關稅方法並不是最優的。

And so I don't expect things to change overnight, but we're going to keep a close eye on that. We're not going to wait. We're obviously off advocating for ourselves as we did over the past couple of years. But that would probably be the biggest area of opportunity in terms of what I look at as year-over-year cost increase.

因此，我不認為事情會在一夜之間發生變化，但我們將密切關注這一點。我們不會等待。我們顯然不再像過去幾年那樣為自己辯護。但就我所認為的逐年成本增長而言，這可能是最大的機會領域。

The next question will come from Gerrick Johnson with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題將由 BMO 資本市場部的 Gerrick Johnson 提出。

I just wanted to touch on the -- I just want to touch on the tariff question a little bit more closely. What is your ability or, say, probability to get those exemptions back? Or is that dead this year?

我只是想談談——我只是想更仔細地談談關稅問題。你有什麼能力，或者說，恢復這些豁免的可能性有多大？還是說今年已經死了？

Well, I think our general counsel would say 0 because there is no process. Obviously, as we're advocating for ourselves, we're pushing on every angle we can. But at this point, there is no process. And so I'd have to assign a very low to no probability around that.

嗯，我認為我們的總法律顧問會說 0，因為沒有流程。顯然，當我們為自己辯護時，我們正在盡我們所能地推動每一個角度。但此時此刻，還沒有任何流程。所以我必須為此分配一個非常低甚至沒有的概率。

I think we've got a really good case, and so we're continuing to plead that with the administration. I think they're going to be willing to listen to that. But I'm hopeful that maybe they'll take a different approach. They've been on the record talking about the negative impact that tariffs have had on U.S. employment. And given their mandate, I think they're going to listen to that.

我認為我們有一個非常好的案例，因此我們將繼續向政府提出這一點。我想他們會願意聽的。但我希望他們可能會採取不同的方法。他們一直公開談論關稅對美國就業造成的負面影響。鑑於他們的授權，我認為他們會聽取這一意見。

Gerrick, I think the other thing to keep in mind is that we've obviously done -- the team has done a great job of working hard to mitigate the tariffs as much as they can from a sourcing perspective. And obviously, we'll keep that effort up as we move into 2021.

格里克，我認為另一件事要記住的是，我們顯然已經做到了——該團隊在努力從採購角度盡可能降低關稅方面做得很好。顯然，進入 2021 年我們將繼續努力。

Okay. Great. And then on your capacity constraints -- or your supplier constraints, I should say, is it more oriented towards a specific line or a specific facility?

好的。偉大的。然後，關於您的產能限制 - 或者您的供應商限制，我應該說，它是否更面向特定生產線或特定設施？

I would say it's more oriented towards our off-road vehicles. And that's not to say that boats and motorcycles don't have their own set of issues. But I think it's compounded with the number of parts that come together to make an off-road vehicle as well as just the diversity of the supply base and the size of that business that really create a lot of the complexity.

我想說它更適合我們的越野車。這並不是說船隻和摩托車沒有自己的問題。但我認為，這與製造越野車的零件數量以及供應基地的多樣性和業務規模有關，這些因素確實造成了很大的複雜性。

Okay. So it doesn't matter if it's Mexico or Alabama. You were getting supply constraints in either facility.

好的。所以無論是墨西哥還是阿拉巴馬州都沒關係。任一設施都受到供應限制。

No. I'd say the geographies are probably more based on the COVID dynamics and how that's impacting absenteeism and things like that, but the supply issues are pretty common amongst all.

不。我想說，地理位置可能更多地取決於新冠病毒的動態以及它對缺勤率等的影響，但供應問題在所有國家中都很常見。

Yes. I think the only geographic dynamic would be that the Boats business has a much more local supply chain than the rest of our operations. So that one is less impacted by outside the U.S. activities.

是的。我認為唯一的地理動態是船舶業務比我們的其他業務擁有更多的本地供應鏈。因此，受美國以外活動的影響較小。

Okay. I don't know if I'm allowed 3 questions, but I'll try anyway. Your confidence in Motorcycles. Your inventory is only down 2% in the channel. [Holly's] going to be shipping again this year. So what's your -- why are you so confident that you're going to grow high 20% range?

好的。我不知道我是否可以問 3 個問題，但無論如何我都會嘗試。您對摩托車的信心。您的渠道庫存僅下降了 2%。[Holly's] 今年將再次發貨。那麼，您的 — 為什麼您如此有信心實現 20% 的高增長？

Well, I mean I think there's a couple of things. One, the innovation that we've got. Our Slingshot business is doing really well. The auto manual -- automated manual transmission is a home run, not to oversell it.

嗯，我的意思是我認為有幾件事。第一，我們的創新。我們的彈弓業務做得非常好。自動手動變速箱——自動手動變速箱是一個本壘打，但不要過度推銷它。

We've got new products coming out, as I teed up in my script. The release that will start -- in fact, there was a teaser out on Instagram yesterday. We're confident that's going to do well. And then continued success with Challenger and the Scout lineup, quite frankly, we think is going to buoy as well, and that's been a business that really has seen great success.

正如我在劇本中所準備的那樣，我們已經推出了新產品。即將開始的發布——事實上，昨天在 Instagram 上發布了一個預告片。我們相信這會做得很好。然後，挑戰者號和偵察兵陣容繼續取得成功，坦率地說，我們認為也會蓬勃發展，這是一項真正取得巨大成功的業務。

We think the competitive setup works well for us in terms of our major competitor having reduced the number of models they have. They've increased the price on their entry bike. And we think the setup is really good for us going into the year.

我們認為競爭設置對我們來說很有效，因為我們的主要競爭對手減少了他們擁有的車型數量。他們提高了入門級自行車的價格。我們認為這種設置對我們今年的發展非常有利。

Our next question will come from Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Joseph Spak。

Just on capacity, and I guess you're talking about retail down high single digits here. If we think about you exiting this year, is that I guess absolute level of demand? What do you think you're properly capacitized for? Recognizing that getting the dealer inventories will still take a little bit longer, but the reason I ask is because you mentioned you added 600,000 new customers. And assuming you can keep a good portion of those over the years to come, like can you actually meet that future demand with your current capacity?

僅就容量而言，我猜您在這裡談論的是零售額下降了高個位數。如果我們考慮一下您今年退出，我猜這是絕對的需求水平嗎？您認為您有適當的能力做什麼？認識到獲得經銷商庫存仍然需要更長的時間，但我問的原因是因為您提到您增加了 600,000 個新客戶。假設您可以在未來幾年保留其中的很大一部分，那麼您實際上可以用當前的能力滿足未來的需求嗎？

Yes. I'd say a couple of things. And remember, when we talk about the new customers, that's across the entire company and that includes things like Polaris Adventures, which obviously doesn't put necessarily a direct demand. It obviously does because we need more vehicles in the network to support it.

是的。我想說幾件事。請記住，當我們談論新客戶時，這是整個公司的客戶，其中包括像北極星探險這樣的公司，這顯然不一定會提出直接需求。顯然確實如此，因為我們需要網絡中更多的車輛來支持它。

It is a good question. And it's why in my prepared remarks, I made the comment that we're going to continue to assess it. Ken has an organization that is continually looking at our network and making sure that we're optimizing it. Given the increase in demand and where we see things going, we don't think things are going to slow down into '22 and beyond. We're going to continue to evaluate that, and we'll probably have a better perspective come the middle of the year.

這是一個好問題。這就是為什麼在我準備好的發言中，我表示我們將繼續評估它。Ken 的組織不斷關注我們的網絡並確保我們對其進行優化。考慮到需求的增長以及我們所看到的情況，我們認為 22 世紀及以後的情況不會放緩。我們將繼續評估這一點，到今年年中我們可能會有更好的視角。

Okay. And then just secondarily, and I realize this is a sensitive question, Mike, so sorry for putting you on the spot. But do you want to be CEO if the Board decides that way? Is your hat in the ring, so to speak?

好的。其次，我意識到這是一個敏感問題，邁克，很抱歉讓你陷入困境。但如果董事會這樣決定，你想擔任首席執行官嗎？可以這麼說，你的帽子在戒指上嗎？

Well look, as I mentioned, the Board's got a lot of work in front of them and a big decision to make. I love the company. I love the role and certainly would be thrilled to have that opportunity. But at the end of the day, the company and the Board have to make the decision that's right for the current times.

嗯，正如我提到的，董事會面臨著大量工作，需要做出重大決定。我愛這家公司。我喜歡這個角色，並且很高興能有這個機會。但最終，公司和董事會必須做出適合當前時代的決定。

Our next question will come from David MacGregor with Longbow Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Longbow Research 的 David MacGregor。

Congratulations on a really strong quarter. I guess I wanted to talk about gross margins. And in your appendix to the slide deck, you present each of your categories, and Motorcycles clearly stands out as the sort of the anomaly. You, in response to a previous question, sort of walked through the individual successes that you've been able to achieve there, particularly on the automatic transmission for Slingshot, which has been a huge home run.

祝賀這個季度的強勁表現。我想我想談談毛利率。在幻燈片的附錄中，您展示了每個類別，而摩托車顯然是一種異常現象。在回答之前的問題時，您大致介紹了您在那裡取得的個人成功，特別是在 Slingshot 的自動變速箱方面，這是一個巨大的本壘打。

But I guess the question with regard to Motorcycle gross margins is just what's realistically achievable in the way of upside here over the next 1 to 2 years? And can you just talk about kind of the drivers behind that?

但我想，關於摩托車毛利率的問題是，在未來 1 到 2 年內，摩托車毛利率實際上可以實現什麼增長？您能談談背後的驅動因素嗎？

Yes. So obviously, Motorcycles is a business we've been building for several years and have really been focusing on driving improvements in those gross margins. Mike Dougherty and the team are very focused in both launching new bikes and obviously profitability improvement.

是的。顯然，摩托車是我們多年來一直致力於打造的業務，並且一直致力於推動毛利率的提高。邁克·多爾蒂（Mike Dougherty）和團隊非常專注於推出新自行車和明顯提高盈利能力。

We expect those to improve in '21. And I think long term, we see those getting closer to company average, so closer to the 20% range. But that's going to depend on how new products roll out in the cadence of that volume growth.

我們預計這些將在 21 年有所改善。我認為從長遠來看，我們看到這些比例越來越接近公司平均水平，更接近 20% 的範圍。但這將取決於新產品如何以銷量增長的節奏推出。

Is it more a function of product growth? Or is it product mix? Or just -- just trying to get a greater sense of just the path to those 20% kind of numbers.

它更多的是產品增長的函數嗎？或者是產品組合？或者只是——只是想更好地了解實現這 20% 的數字的路徑。

Sure. It's a mix of both. I mean obviously, the volume helps on the leverage through the factories and with suppliers, but also mix. Challenger's a positive. And as that continues to build out, the heavyweight segment tends to have higher margins. But also the midsize segment grows a little faster, so that creates a bit of a headwind right now. So it's a mix of both.

當然。它是兩者的混合體。我的意思是，顯然，銷量有助於提高工廠和供應商的槓桿作用，但也有助於混合。挑戰者是積極的。隨著這一規模的不斷擴大，重量級細分市場的利潤率往往會更高。但中型車市場的增長速度也更快，因此現在造成了一些阻力。所以它是兩者的混合。

And I'd also add, David, that we've talked about the PG&A level for the business is below where many competitors are, and we've made a lot of great inroads over the last year. And obviously, that will help out from a profitability. The volume level going through the factory certainly helps. And there's a lot of work being done around design to value as we look forward on the product.

大衛，我還要補充一點，我們已經討論過該業務的 PG&A 水平低於許多競爭對手，而且我們在去年取得了很多重大進展。顯然，這將有助於盈利。通過工廠的音量水平肯定有幫助。當我們對產品充滿期待時，圍繞設計價值做了很多工作。

And so it's not any one thing. It's all those things coming together. And I think Mike and the team have a great plan and understand the importance. We've spent a lot of capital getting that business set up, getting the products into the market, gaining share, setting up world-class distribution. Now it's about scaling that and improving profitability.

所以這不是一件事。所有這些事情都聚集在一起。我認為邁克和他的團隊有一個偉大的計劃並且理解其重要性。我們花費了大量資金來建立業務、將產品推向市場、獲得份額、建立世界一流的分銷。現在的重點是擴大規模並提高盈利能力。

Right. Okay. Second question is just on Polaris Adventures. And I guess just how significant is this in the future plans for growth in revenues and profitability? Is this a stand-alone sort of profit center that you see developing? Or is it more just kind of a means of creating a segue for consumers into your existing product offering and ownership?

正確的。好的。第二個問題是關於北極星曆險記的。我想這對於未來的收入和盈利增長計劃有多重要？您認為這是一個正在發展的獨立利潤中心嗎？或者它只是一種為消費者創造一種進入您現有產品和所有權的方式？

Well, I think it's both. I mean the priority right now -- although I will tell you that Adventures has actually made money this past year, the priority is really to take advantage of the opportunity we have. And if you look at the fact that we've got over 160 locations and that's growing rapidly, and the number of customers that are touching our product, and again these are relatively new products so they're getting exposed to the best that we have. And we know that we're able to convert customers, and we've done that with probably very minimal effort to end up buying product.

嗯，我認為兩者都是。我的意思是現在的首要任務——儘管我會告訴你，冒險在過去的一年裡實際上已經賺錢了，但首要任務實際上是利用我們擁有的機會。如果你看看我們已經擁有 160 多個地點並且增長迅速，以及接觸我們產品的客戶數量，而且這些都是相對較新的產品，因此他們能夠接觸到我們擁有的最好的產品。我們知道我們能夠轉化客戶，而且我們可能只需要付出很少的努力就可以最終購買產品。

And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we've now moved that -- I've always characterized it as we have everything from buying -- we have buying a product and renting, and there's a big space in between. And Adventures Select, which we're piloting down in Arizona right now, affords kind of a little bit better model where they're not just going and running a product, they've actually got ownership or membership in the company. And it gives them the ability to get access to differing products depending on the time of year, and they can tailor that to meet the needs that they have.

正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們現在已經採取了行動——我一直將其描述為我們擁有購買的一切——我們購買產品和租賃，兩者之間有很大的空間。我們現在正在亞利桑那州試行的 Adventures Select 提供了一種更好的模式，他們不僅僅是去運行一個產品，他們實際上還擁有公司的所有權或會員資格。它使他們能夠根據一年中的不同時間獲得不同的產品，並且他們可以定制產品以滿足他們的需求。

And again, this is all about how do we bring more customers in to Polaris. Because the one thing we know is that there's a stickiness and customers tend to trade up. And this becomes an integral part of their family architecture, if you will. And so Polaris Adventures becomes an incredible entry point for customers who may not be at a stage of life where they can afford our product or have the property or space to store it, but may in the future. So a little bit of a long-winded answer to it, but a little bit of both.

再說一次，這就是我們如何為北極星吸引更多客戶。因為我們知道的一件事是，存在粘性，客戶傾向於升級。如果你願意的話，這將成為他們家庭結構中不可或缺的一部分。因此，北極星冒險成為客戶的一個令人難以置信的切入點，他們可能還沒有能力購買我們的產品或擁有財產或空間來存儲我們的產品，但將來可能會這樣做。這是一個有點冗長的答案，但兩者都有一點。

Our next question will come from Jaime Katz with Morningstar.

我們的下一個問題將來自晨星公司的 Jaime Katz。

I guess another way to ask that question is what do you think the total addressable market of that Adventures Select offering is? How many consumers would you try to reach as you scale that across the U.S.?

我想問這個問題的另一種方式是，您認為 Adventures Select 產品的總目標市場是多少？當你在美國擴大規模時，你會嘗試接觸多少消費者？

Well I mean look, it's substantial. When we went after Adventures, we looked at not -- what is interesting is because of these models, we're not just looking at the powersports market. We're now looking at travel and tourism and vacation because you're now competing with those same dollars. So you're talking tens of billions of dollars in potential opportunity out there.

嗯，我的意思是看，它很重要。當我們追求 Adventures 時，我們關注的不是——有趣的是因為這些模型，我們不僅僅關注動力運動市場。我們現在正在關注旅行、旅遊和度假，因為你現在正在用同樣的錢進行競爭。所以你說的是存在數百億美元的潛在機會。

To be able to draw a consumer in, they're not going be outlaying tens of thousands of dollars. They're going to be outlaying $100 or $200 a month to have access to an incredible vehicle. And so from our standpoint, that becomes very attractive, not only in being able to bring them in, but the future potential that they get to a point that they want to stop either renting or having a subscription and eventually own a vehicle.

為了吸引消費者，他們不會花費數万美元。他們每月要花費 100 或 200 美元才能獲得一輛令人難以置信的車輛。因此，從我們的角度來看，這變得非常有吸引力，不僅因為能夠吸引他們，而且因為他們未來有潛力想要停止租賃或訂閱並最終擁有一輛車。

Okay. And can you talk a little bit about working capital intensity? It looks like payables went up pretty significantly at the end of the year. And I'm wondering if the working capital demands are going to remain similar or maybe go up again?

好的。您能談談營運資本強度嗎？看起來應付賬款在年底大幅增加。我想知道營運資金需求是否會保持相似或可能再次上升？

Sure. So we had a really good year from a working capital standpoint. As you noticed, payables were pretty heavy at the end of the year. And that's primarily from the switch in mix of inventory from a bit lower finished goods and higher raw materials as we looked to rebuild. So as we think about 2021, working capital will go up as we continue to refill finished goods inventory and build that through the course of the year.

當然。因此，從營運資金的角度來看，我們度過了非常美好的一年。正如您所注意到的，年底的應付賬款相當沉重。這主要是由於我們在重建過程中將庫存組合從較低的製成品和較高的原材料轉變而來。因此，當我們考慮 2021 年時，隨著我們繼續補充成品庫存並在這一年中建立庫存，營運資金將會增加。

Our next question will come from Billy Kovanis with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的比利·科瓦尼斯。

Congrats on the strong result. As we look ahead here, can you give us a view on what levers you have as a company to grow revenues organically in a more steady-state period post-COVID such as 2022, when inventories normalize? I think you alluded to a few of these growth drivers in your opening remarks, such as tapping into international, looking for customer expansion, new technologies. But if you could summarize, it would be very helpful.

祝賀您取得如此強勁的成績。當我們展望未來時，您能否向我們介紹一下，作為一家公司，您有哪些槓桿可以在疫情后更加穩定的時期（例如庫存正常化的 2022 年）有機地增加收入？我認為您在開場白中提到了其中一些增長動力，例如進軍國際、尋求客戶擴張、新技術。但如果你能總結一下，那將會非常有幫助。

Yes. I mean you actually did a good job of teeing it up. I mean I think one, with the growth in new customers, right, it opens the aperture in terms of folks that not only would be in a repurchase or an upgrade cycle, but the one thing we do know from our new customers that come in is that they're very enthusiastic and they tend to bring family and friends in. And I think we've seen that playing out through the course of this year.

是的。我的意思是你實際上在準備工作上做得很好。我的意思是，我認為，隨著新客戶的增長，它打開了人們的視野，不僅會處於回購或升級週期，而且我們確實從新客戶那裡了解到的一件事他們非常熱情，往往會邀請家人和朋友一起來。我認為今年我們已經看到了這種情況的發生。

I think the other -- the second is around innovation. We've -- we're known for innovating, and you look at the number of products that we brought out this past year. 2021 is set up to be a similar year of strong innovation and new products and continuing to hit segments that maybe we don't currently have products in. So I think there's tremendous opportunity there.

我認為另一個——第二個是圍繞創新。我們以創新而聞名，你看看我們去年推出的產品數量。2021 年將是強勁創新、新產品不斷湧現的一年，並將繼續衝擊我們目前可能沒有產品的細分市場。所以我認為那裡有巨大的機會。

I think the third is the offerings that we have outside of the vehicle. So when you look at our Aftermarket and you look at our PG&A., the number of accessories we have. And obviously we have people who have vehicles that may only be a year or 2 old by the time you get to 2022. But we've got plenty of options for them to continue to customize and make those vehicles unique.

我認為第三是我們在車輛之外提供的產品。因此，當您查看我們的售後市場和我們的 PG&A 時，我們會看到我們擁有的配件數量。顯然，到 2022 年，我們有些人的車輛可能只有一兩年的車齡。但我們有很多選擇供他們繼續定制並使這些車輛獨一無二。

And then also as you pointed out, the geographic opportunities. We had parts of Europe that although they rebounded in the second half were still down year-over-year. And so we do think from a geographic standpoint, and what I would say is a far more targeted international growth strategy that Mike Dougherty has put in place over the past several years. I think we're poised to really take advantage of that.

正如您所指出的，還有地理機會。歐洲部分地區雖然下半年有所反彈，但仍同比下降。因此，我們確實從地理角度進行思考，我想說的是邁克·多爾蒂（Mike Dougherty）在過去幾年中實施的更具針對性的國際增長戰略。我認為我們已經準備好真正利用這一點。

The next question will come from Mark Smith with Lake Street Capital Markets.

下一個問題將由 Lake Street Capital Markets 的馬克·史密斯提出。

I'll just keep it to one. Electrification strategy, you called it out as a big emphasis here in 2021. And I know it's tough to speak to for competitive reasons, but can you just talk about do you have the organization in place that you need today, and then maybe how we should be looking at the goalposts for this business.

我就把它保留為一。您將電氣化戰略稱為 2021 年的重點。我知道，出於競爭原因，很難與您交談，但是您能否談談您今天需要的組織是否到位，然後也許我們應該如何看待這項業務的目標。

Yes, I'm glad you brought it up because it's an important part of the strategy. We talked, I believe, at the last call about -- we transitioned with Chris Musso leaving the company and going back to consulting. Mike Donoughe has taken that over. Mike has an incredible background, both in electrification and technology around automotive and off-road vehicles.

是的，我很高興您提出這個問題，因為這是該戰略的重要組成部分。我相信，我們在最後一次電話會議上談到了——克里斯·穆索（Chris Musso）離開公司並返回諮詢行業進行轉型。邁克·多諾 (Mike Donoughe) 接手了這項工作。邁克在汽車和越野車的電氣化和技術方面擁有令人難以置信的背景。

We have an incredible team in place. It's one of the things we spent the past couple of years is making sure that we have the talent internally, and then quite frankly it's why we set up the partnership with Zero. They have a proven track record. They have powertrains that hit the sweet spot. They can help us work through a cost-effective way to put those powertrains into our off-road vehicles.

我們擁有一支令人難以置信的團隊。過去幾年我們所做的事情之一就是確保我們內部擁有人才，坦率地說，這就是我們與 Zero 建立合作夥伴關係的原因。他們擁有良好的業績記錄。他們擁有達到最佳狀態的動力系統。他們可以幫助我們以一種經濟有效的方式將這些動力系統應用到我們的越野車輛中。

As we indicated, I think the biggest goalposts -- I'll say there's 2. One, how much money did we put aside? And I can tell you that we're investing around $20 million this year to further this forward. So we're putting the money behind it. And then the second is we're going to be essentially launching a new product at the end of the year. And so I think that will really show the traction that we're making.

正如我們所指出的，我認為最大的目標是——我會說有兩個。第一，我們預留了多少錢？我可以告訴您，我們今年將投資約 2000 萬美元來進一步推進這一目標。所以我們把錢放在後面。第二個是我們將在今年年底推出一款新產品。所以我認為這將真正顯示出我們正在產生的吸引力。

I'm excited about it. The team is energized. And we think this is going to provide a nice alternative as well as again expand the market to customers that may not be comfortable owning an internal combustion engine today.

我對此很興奮。團隊充滿活力。我們認為這將提供一個很好的替代方案，並再次向那些今天可能不願意擁有內燃機的客戶擴大市場。

The next question will come from Shawn Collins with Citi.

下一個問題將由花旗銀行的肖恩·柯林斯提出。

So I wanted to ask quickly further about supply chain constraints. I know it's a well-covered subject, and I know that challenges are largely across the board and include a lot of labor tightness. But are you experiencing any particular issues with sourcing semiconductor chips, if you can comment on this?

所以我想快速進一步詢問供應鏈的限制。我知道這是一個廣泛討論的主題，我也知道挑戰主要是全面的，包括勞動力緊張。但您在採購半導體芯片方面是否遇到任何特殊問題，能否對此發表評論？

We are. I don't know that I would isolate it out separately. And it's like I would tell you, we've got a list every day, and the team's knocking things off the list. And things come on, and they're just proactively working it.

我們是。我不知道我會把它單獨隔離出來。就像我會告訴你的那樣，我們每天都有一份清單，並且團隊正在將清單上的事情刪除。事情發生了，他們只是積極主動地去做。

Got you. Great. That's helpful. Just maybe a quick second question. We're in the midst of winter, so I wanted to ask about the snowmobile vertical.

明白你了。偉大的。這很有幫助。也許只是一個快速的第二個問題。我們現在正值隆冬季節，所以我想問一下關於垂直雪地摩託的問題。

4Q, industry was up 15%, roughly. You guys were up roughly 22%. Can you just offer some color around your outperformance and also the industry in general around snow?

第四季度，工業增長約 15%。你們上漲了大約 22%。您能否就您的出色表現以及整個行業在雪方面的表現提供一些看法？

Yes. I would tell you that we've invested a lot of money in snow over the past several years. And the new products that are either out in the market or will soon be out in the market have met incredible reception. Our SnowCheck was up substantially versus where we were last year.

是的。我想告訴你，過去幾年我們在雪上投入了大量資金。而已經上市或即將上市的新產品都受到了熱烈的歡迎。與去年相比，我們的 SnowCheck 大幅上升。

And the team has done as good a job as any making sure we're overcoming some of the supply chain issues, to make sure we were getting those sleds into the hands of our consumers in a timely fashion. You can imagine those are even more time-sensitive than our off-road vehicles right now.

該團隊的工作與其他團隊一樣出色，確保我們克服了一些供應鏈問題，確保我們及時將這些雪橇交到消費者手中。您可以想像這些比我們現在的越野車對時間更加敏感。

And the receptivity in the marketplace has been very positive. And I think given some of the new products that we have yet to come, we've got a dealer show that will be virtual coming up here in March. And we're excited about the product that will be coming out at that show as well as later in the year.

市場的接受度非常積極。我認為考慮到我們尚未推出的一些新產品，我們將在三月份舉辦一場虛擬的經銷商展。我們對將在該展會以及今年晚些時候推出的產品感到興奮。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Richard Edwards for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉交給理查德·愛德華茲先生髮表閉幕詞。請繼續。

Yes. Thanks, Chuck. And I just want to thank everyone for participating in the call this morning. We certainly appreciate it, and we look forward to talking to you again next quarter. And have a good day. So thank you. Goodbye.

是的。謝謝，查克。我只想感謝大家參加今天早上的電話會議。我們當然很感激，並期待下個季度再次與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。所以謝謝。再見。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。