派克漢尼汾 (PH) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Corporation's fiscal 2025 fourth quarter and full year earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家早安。歡迎參加派克漢尼汾公司 2025 財年第四季和全年財報電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Todd Leombruno, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將電話轉給執行副總裁兼財務長 Todd Leombruno 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you so much, [Boe]. I'd like to welcome everyone to Parker's fiscal year 2025 fourth quarter and full year earnings release webcast. As Boe said, this is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer speaking, and with me today, as usual, is Jenny Parmentier, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. We appreciate your interest in Parker, and we thank everyone for joining us today.

太感謝了，[博伊]。歡迎大家收看派克 2025 財年第四季和全年財報發佈網路直播。正如博伊所說，我是財務長 Todd Leombruno，今天和我一起發言的是我們的董事長兼執行長珍妮‧帕門蒂爾 (Jenny Parmentier)。我們感謝您對派克的關注，也感謝大家今天的參與。

On slide 2, we address our disclosures on forward-looking projections and non-GAAP financial measures. Items listed here could cause actual results to vary from our forecast. Our press release, this presentation and reconciliations for all non-GAAP measures were released this morning and are available under the Investors section on parker.com.

在第 2 張投影片中，我們討論了前瞻性預測和非 GAAP 財務指標的揭露。此處列出的項目可能會導致實際結果與我們的預測有所不同。我們的新聞稿、本簡報以及所有非 GAAP 指標的對帳表已於今天上午發布，可在 parker.com 的「投資者」部分查閱。

The agenda for today has Jenny starting out with the highlights to our record fiscal year 2025 performance. She will then reiterate the strength of our transformed portfolio, the power of the Win Strategy, which is our business system, that drives performance in all economic climates, and then she'll provide some color on our recently announced acquisition of Curtis Instruments.

今天的議程首先由珍妮介紹我們 2025 財年創紀錄的業績亮點。然後，她將重申我們轉型後的產品組合的優勢、「贏」策略的力量，這是我們的業務系統，可以在所有經濟環境下推動業績，然後她將介紹我們最近宣布的收購柯蒂斯儀器公司的情況。

I'm going to follow with a few details on our strong fourth quarter financial results. We did release our initial FY26 guidance this morning, and we will discuss the assumptions, and provide some color on what we expect to be another record year for Parker. We'll conclude the call with a normal question-and-answer session, and we will do our best to take as many questions as possible.

接下來我將詳細介紹我們強勁的第四季財務表現。我們今天早上確實發布了 26 財年的初步指導，我們將討論這些假設，並對我們預計派克將創下紀錄的一年做出一些說明。我們將以正常的問答環節結束這次電話會議，並盡力回答盡可能多的問題。

Now I would ask everyone to call your attention to slide 3, and Jenny, the floor is yours.

現在我想請大家注意投影片 3，珍妮，現在輪到你發言了。

Thank you, Todd, and thank you to everyone for joining the call today. The Win Strategy and our culture of high performance delivered another record year. We had a 17% reduction in recordable incident rate, once again achieving top quartile safety performance and record engagement survey results.

謝謝你，托德，也謝謝大家今天參加電話會議。「勝利策略」和我們的高績效文化又創造了新的紀錄。我們的可記錄事故率降低了 17%，再次實現了最高四分位的安全性能和記錄參與度調查結果。

Top line sales finished at $19.9 billion, and this team achieved record adjusted segment operating margin of 26.1%, an increase of 120 basis points to prior year, and record adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.4%, an increase of 80 basis points to prior year. We generated record cash flow from operations of $3.8 billion and delivered 7% adjusted EPS growth. We finished the year with a record $11 billion in backlog, and we remain committed to a disciplined, active and balanced capital deployment strategy.

營收達到 199 億美元，該團隊實現了創紀錄的調整後分部營業利潤率 26.1%，比上年增加 120 個基點，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率達到創紀錄的 26.4%，比上年增加 80 個基點。我們創造了創紀錄的 38 億美元經營現金流，並實現了 7% 的調整後每股收益成長。我們以創紀錄的 110 億美元積壓訂單結束了這項財年，我們將繼續致力於實施嚴謹、積極和均衡的資本配置策略。

Next slide, please. Another year of outstanding performance from Aerospace with record sales of $6.2 billion. That's 13% organic growth and 190 basis points of adjusted segment operating margin expansion. Orders continued to outpace sales growth as we finished the year at a record backlog of $7.4 billion. Today, we enjoy a balanced and diverse Aerospace portfolio. We finished FY25 with 51% of our sales from serving the aftermarket, and 49% from serving our OEM customers.

請看下一張投影片。航空航太業又取得了出色的業績，銷售額達到創紀錄的 62 億美元。這意味著有機成長率為 13%，調整後分部營業利潤率擴大了 190 個基點。訂單成長持續超過銷售成長，我們以創紀錄的 74 億美元積壓訂單結束了這一年度。如今，我們擁有均衡且多樣化的航空航天產品組合。截至 2025 財年，我們的銷售額有 51% 來自售後市場，49% 來自 OEM 客戶。

Looking back to FY19. I'd like to recognize our Aerospace team for navigating and managing through numerous industry challenges, successfully integrating the Parker and Meggitt Aerospace businesses together, and staying focused every day on the safety of our team members and improving the experience for all of our customers. The performance is impressive.

回顧 2019 財年。我要表彰我們的航空航天團隊克服並應對了眾多行業挑戰，成功地將派克和美捷特航空航天業務整合在一起，並且每天都關注團隊成員的安全並改善所有客戶的體驗。其表現令人印象深刻。

Sales are approximately 2.5x higher, and we are on track to expand adjusted segment operating margin by 940 basis points from fiscal year '19 through our fiscal year '26 guidance, and we're not done yet. Our comprehensive offering of proprietary designs on premier programs, and our global footprint that supports a diverse customer base, well positions us for sustained growth and operating performance.

銷售額大約成長了 2.5 倍，我們預計將調整後的分部營業利潤率從 2019 財年擴大到 2026 財年的 940 個基點，而且我們還沒有完成。我們為頂級專案提供全面的專有設計，並支援多元化客戶群的全球業務，這為我們持續成長和經營績效奠定了良好的基礎。

Next slide, please. The Industrial segment of our business has been a large part of our transformation and margin expansion story. Fiscal year '25 delivered record adjusted segment operating margin of 25.1%, a 90 basis point increase over prior year. Using the Win Strategy, our teams are on track to deliver 700 basis points margin expansion from fiscal year '19 through our FY26 guide. This is a testament of our ability to expand margins through the cycle, even in periods of negative organic growth.

請看下一張投影片。我們業務的工業部門一直是我們轉型和利潤擴張的重要組成部分。25 財年調整後分部營業利益率創歷史新高，達到 25.1%，比前一年增加了 90 個基點。利用“制勝策略”，我們的團隊預計將從 2019 財年到 2026 財年實現 700 個基點的利潤率擴張。這證明了我們有能力在整個週期中擴大利潤率，即使在負有機成長時期。

Our powerhouse of interconnected technologies, global distribution network, and global manufacturing footprint are competitive advantages that will drive growth from secular trends across the market verticals. Our portfolio today is well balanced. Two-thirds is now longer cycle, secular trend and aftermarket. We are poised for a return to growth.

我們強大的互聯技術、全球分銷網絡和全球製造足跡是我們的競爭優勢，將推動整個垂直市場長期趨勢的成長。我們今天的投資組合非常均衡。現在三分之二是更長的周期、長期趨勢和售後市場。我們已準備好恢復成長。

Next slide, please. Once again, the transformation of our portfolio further expanded longer cycle and secular revenue mix in fiscal year '25. Acquisitions in both Aerospace and Industrial, along with international distribution growth, have greatly contributed to this transformation. We see this transformation continuing and expect 85% of our portfolio to be longer cycle, secular and aftermarket by fiscal year '29.

請看下一張投影片。再次，我們的投資組合轉型在 25 財年進一步擴大了更長週期和長期收入組合。航空航太和工業領域的收購以及國際分銷的成長極大地促進了這一轉變。我們看到這種轉變將會持續下去，預計到 29 財年，我們 85% 的投資組合將是週期較長、長期和售後市場的。

Next slide, please. And on June 30, we announced our intent to acquire Curtis Instruments, further expanding our electrification offering and secular revenue mix. Curtis is the leader in low-voltage motor control solutions for zero emission and hybrid mobile equipment. This acquisition will add a complementary suite of control solutions to pair with Parker's electric motor and motion control portfolio. This will further enhance our capabilities for in-plant and off-highway applications.

請看下一張投影片。6 月 30 日，我們宣布有意收購柯蒂斯儀器公司，進一步擴大我們的電氣化產品和長期收入結構。Curtis 是零排放和混合移動設備低壓馬達控制解決方案的領導者。此次收購將增加一套互補的控制解決方案，以配合派克的電動馬達和運動控制產品組合。這將進一步增強我們在廠內和非公路應用方面的能力。

Curtis has a strong market position across diverse and growing end markets. These are markets that we know, customers we have relationships with, and products that will be a great addition to our portfolio. We expect to close by end of the calendar year, and we look forward to welcoming the Curtis team to Parker.

柯蒂斯在多元化且不斷成長的終端市場中佔據著強大的地位。這些是我們了解的市場、與我們有關係的客戶以及可以豐富我們產品組合的產品。我們預計將於今年年底完成交易，並期待歡迎柯蒂斯團隊加入帕克。

Next slide please. And a reminder on why we win. First, the Win Strategy is our business system. We have a decentralized operating structure. 85 divisions run by general managers with full P&L responsibility, acting like owners, close to their customers, and executing the Win strategy every day. We have innovative products that solve customer problems. 85% covered by intellectual property.

請看下一張投影片。並提醒我們為什麼會獲勝。第一，贏策略是我們的業務體系。我們擁有分散的營運結構。 85 個部門由總經理管理，他們全權負責損益，像主人一樣行事，貼近客戶，每天執行 Win 策略。我們擁有解決客戶問題的創新產品。 85％的產品受智慧財產權保護。

Our application engineers provide the expertise that allows us to have a competitive advantage with our technologies to provide efficient solutions for our customers. And finally, our distribution network is the envy of the competition and the best in the world. It took us over 60 years to build it, and it is truly an extension of our engineering teams, providing solutions to small and mid-sized OEMs. These partners are experts at applying our interconnected technologies.

我們的應用工程師提供專業知識，使我們的技術具有競爭優勢，從而為我們的客戶提供高效的解決方案。最後，我們的分銷網絡令競爭對手羨慕不已，是全世界最好的。我們花了 60 多年的時間來打造它，它真正是我們工程團隊的延伸，為中小型 OEM 提供解決方案。這些合作夥伴是應用我們互聯技術的專家。

I'll now turn it back over to Todd to go through our fiscal year 2025 highlights.

現在我將把時間交還給托德，讓他來介紹我們 2025 財年的亮點。

Thank you, Jenny. FY25 was really a strong year. I'm going to try and quickly wrap up FY25 with the Q4 results, and I'm on slide 10.

謝謝你，珍妮。FY25 確實是強勁的一年。我將嘗試透過第四季的結果快速總結 25 財年，現在我在第 10 張投影片上。

Fourth quarter was another record-setting quarter. In fact, every number on this page is once again a record. It was another quarter of continued margin expansion and a quarter of double-digit EPS growth. Really impressive considering that sales were up just 1% versus prior year. Organic growth was positive at 2%. That's the highest we've been all fiscal year. Currency did turn favorable at 1%, and the divestitures that we previously announced throughout the year were 2% unfavorable to total sales.

第四季又是一個創紀錄的季度。事實上，這一頁上的每一個數字都再次成為一項記錄。這是利潤率持續擴大和每股收益實現兩位數成長的另一個季度。考慮到銷售額僅比去年同期成長 1%，這確實令人印象深刻。有機成長率為 2%。這是我們整個財政年度以來的最高水準。貨幣確實以 1% 的幅度轉為有利，而我們先前全年宣布的資產剝離對總銷售額則不利 2%。

Adjusted segment operating margin was 26.9%. That's up 160 basis points from prior year, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 26.8%. That's an increase of 50 basis points from prior year. Adjusted net income was almost $1 billion, was $992 million in the quarter. That was an 18.9% return on sales. And adjusted earnings per share were up 14%, and they reached $7.69 per share.

調整後分部營業利益率為26.9%。這比上年增長了 160 個基點，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 26.8%。比前一年增加了 50 個基點。調整後的淨收入接近 10 億美元，本季為 9.92 億美元。銷售回報率為 18.9%。調整後每股收益成長 14%，達到每股 7.69 美元。

Just a fantastic quarter, really from all the businesses, resulting in the best performance that we've had this fiscal year for sales, for organic growth adjusted segment margins and for adjusted EPS. We'd really like to thank our global team for a strong finish to the fiscal year. We talk about this a lot internally, finishing strong and everyone certainly delivered.

所有業務都表現出色，這是一個非常棒的季度，我們的銷售額、有機成長、調整後的分部利潤率和調整後的每股收益都創下了本財年的最佳表現。我們非常感謝我們的全球團隊為本財年取得圓滿成功。我們在內部多次討論過這個問題，最終取得了圓滿成功，而每個人都確實做到了。

If you could move to slide 11. This just highlights the components in the year-over-year improvements and adjusted EPS, what I'm proud to say here is 60% of the improvement in EPS in the quarter came from strong operating execution. Segment operating income dollars are up $96 million, or 7%. That was $0.56 of our improvement.

請移至第 11 張投影片。這只是突出了同比增長和調整後每股收益的組成部分，我很自豪地說，本季每股收益的 60% 增長來自強勁的營運執行。分部營業收入增加 9,600 萬美元，增幅 7%。這是我們改進的 0.56 美元。

Income tax was a bit favorable in the quarter. That's $0.47 favorable. That was really a result of a few discrete tax benefits that resolved in the quarter. Also, I'd just like to call attention that Q4 last year was our highest tax rate of the year. So comps off to a little bit there.

本季的所得稅略有優惠。這是有利的 0.47 美元。這實際上是本季解決的一些單獨稅收優惠的結果。另外，我想提請注意的是，去年第四季的稅率是我們今年的最高稅率。因此，那裡有一點點補償。

Interest expense continues to be favorable. That was $0.12 favorable. That's really just based on our efforts to pay down debt throughout the year and discretionary share repurchases drove a $0.09 favorable impact. You can see that share count par there.

利息支出繼續保持良好。這相當於有利 0.12 美元。這實際上只是基於我們全年償還債務的努力以及自由支配的股票回購帶來的 0.09 美元的有利影響。您可以在那裡看到股票計數平價。

Corporate G&A and other were unfavorable, really combined $0.32. That's a combination of less favorable pension expense versus prior year, but really a result of foreign currency exchange volatility year-over-year. The EPS growth story has been really consistent throughout the year, just strong operating execution, very tight cost controls, driving margin expansion, and as Jenny mentioned, disciplined capital allocation. So just a great way to finish the year.

公司一般及行政開支及其他支出表現不佳，實際合計為0.32美元。這部分是由於退休金支出較上年有所下降，但實際上是匯率較去年同期波動造成的。全年每股收益的成長情況一直非常穩定，這得益於強勁的營運執行、非常嚴格的成本控制、推動的利潤率擴張，以及正如珍妮所提到的，嚴格的資本配置。這真是結束這一年的一個好方法。

If we can go to slide 12, this just details the performance across our businesses. First, I'll start with orders. Orders continue to be positive. It's plus 5% versus prior year. Aerospace strength continues to drive backlog higher. Jenny mentioned, that's a record. We did see gradual improvement in sales growth across our major market verticals. And once again, this quarter, every business delivered record segment operating margins. Very nice to see that. And I already mentioned it, but in total, we were up 160 basis points from prior year.

如果我們可以轉到第 12 張投影片，這裡詳細介紹了我們各個業務的表現。首先，我先來聽聽訂單。訂單持續保持積極態勢。與上年相比成長了 5%。航空航太業的強勁表現持續推動積壓訂單增加。珍妮提到，這是一個紀錄。我們確實看到主要垂直市場的銷售成長逐漸改善。本季度，每個業務部門的營業利潤率再次創下新高。很高興看到這一點。我已經提到過，但總體而言，我們比去年同期上漲了 160 個基點。

Looking specifically in the North America businesses, sales were $2.1 billion. Organic growth was just down 1% versus prior, but we did continue to see a sequential improvement in organic growth. And quite honestly, that was better than our expectations coming into the quarter. We did see improvement across the market verticals in North America. So that was a positive, and distribution sentiment continues to be positive across the channel.

具體來看北美業務，銷售額為 21 億美元。有機成長率與之前相比僅下降了 1%，但我們確實繼續看到有機成長率的連續改善。坦白說，這比我們本季的預期要好。我們確實看到北美各個垂直市場的改善。這是積極的一面，整個通路的分銷情緒繼續保持積極。

Adjusted operating margins did increase 170 basis points to a record 26.7%, and that was just again driven by excellent, excellent operating execution, cost controls and a little bit of favorable mix. Gradual improvement in distribution kept orders in North America positive at plus 2% versus prior year. And I just want to note that this is the third consecutive quarter of positive order growth for North America.

調整後的營業利潤率確實增加了 170 個基點，達到創紀錄的 26.7%，而這再次受到出色的營運執行、成本控制和一些有利的組合的推動。分銷管道的逐步改善使北美地區的訂單量較上年同期保持 2% 的成長。我只想指出，這是北美訂單連續第三個季度正成長。

Moving to the Diversified Industrial International businesses. Sales were up to $1.5 billion. That's up 4%. Organic growth was positive at 1%. It was really nice to see that turn positive. In Asia Pac, organic growth was plus 6%. In Latin America, it was plus 4%, while EMEA did improve, it did remain negative 3% from organic growth standpoint.

轉向多元化工業國際業務。銷售額高達15億美元。上漲了 4%。有機成長率為 1%。看到情況有正面改變真是令人欣慰。在亞太地區，有機成長率為 6%。拉丁美洲的成長率為 4%，而歐洲、中東和非洲地區雖然有所改善，但從有機成長的角度來看仍為 -3%。

Our international teams are really committed to using the tools of the Win Strategy to reduce cost, improve efficiency and drive margin expansion, no matter what's happening with the top line. And that resulted in adjusted operating margins achieving a record of 24.7%, which is an 80-basis point expansion from prior year.

無論營業收入發生什麼情況，我們的國際團隊都致力於使用「贏」策略的工具來降低成本、提高效率和推動利潤率的擴大。這使得調整後的營業利潤率達到了創紀錄的 24.7%，比上年增長了 80 個基點。

On the order front. International orders were flat versus prior year, really against some tough comps. And just a reminder that orders in Q3 did benefit from a number of significant long-cycle orders that remain in the backlog.

在訂單方面。國際訂單與上年持平，與一些強勁的競爭對手相比確實如此。需要提醒的是，第三季的訂單確實受益於大量積壓的長週期訂單。

Lastly, if I look at Aerospace Systems, the momentum continues in Aerospace. Sales were a record $1.7 billion. That's up 10% versus prior year. That did exceed our expectations for the quarter. Organic growth was most of that 9% of that growth is organic, really driven by strong strength in the aftermarket channels. Adjusted segment operating margins up huge 190 basis points versus prior and reached a record 29%. And Aerospace orders continue to be positive at plus 12%. Really want to commend our aerospace team members for another outstanding quarter and a strong finish to a stellar year.

最後，如果我看一下航空航天系統，航空航天業的勢頭仍在繼續。銷售額創下 17 億美元的紀錄。與去年相比成長了 10%。這確實超出了我們對本季的預期。有機成長是 9% 成長的大部分，這確實得益於售後市場通路的強勁實力。調整後的部門營業利潤率較前一年大幅上漲 190 個基點，達到創紀錄的 29%。航空航太訂單持續保持正成長，增幅達 12%。真的很想讚揚我們的航空航天團隊成員，他們又一個季度表現出色，為輝煌的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。

All right. On slide 13, this is my last slide for the year. This is cash flow. We finished FY25 by achieving record cash flow generation. Cash flow from operations is a record at $3.8 billion, that's 19% of sales. Free cash flow was also a record at $3.3 billion, or 16.8% of sales, with conversion at 109% after adjusting for some non-operating items.

好的。第 13 張投影片是今年的最後一張投影片。這就是現金流。我們以創紀錄的現金流結束了 25 財年。經營現金流達到創紀錄的 38 億美元，佔銷售額的 19%。自由現金流也創下新高，達到 33 億美元，佔銷售額的 16.8%，調整一些非經營性項目後，轉換率達 109%。

Both CFOA and free cash flow increased by 12% versus prior year. And in addition, we did repurchase an additional $850 million in shares during the quarter, and that brought our year-to-date share repurchases amount to $1.6 billion.

CFOA 和自由現金流較上年均成長了 12%。此外，我們在本季還回購了價值 8.5 億美元的股票，這使我們今年迄今的股票回購總額達到 16 億美元。

And that is a wrap on our record FY25 performance. So I know everyone is interested in guidance. We'll move on to FY26 guidance. And Jenny, I'm going to hand it back to you on slide 15.

這就是我們 25 財年創紀錄的業績。所以我知道每個人都對指導感興趣。我們將繼續討論 FY26 指導。珍妮，我將在第 15 張幻燈片上把它交還給你。

Thanks, Todd. This slide shows our fiscal year '26 organic sales growth forecast by key market verticals. So in Aerospace, we are forecasting high single-digit growth with higher growth in commercial OEM, then commercial after market. We are forecasting low single-digit growth in-plant and industrial, and this is assuming a gradual industrial recovery.

謝謝，托德。這張投影片展示了我們對 26 財年各主要垂直市場有機銷售成長的預測。因此，在航空航太領域，我們預測其將實現高個位數成長，其中商用 OEM 和商用售後市場將實現更高的成長。我們預測工廠和工業將實現低個位數成長，這是假設工業將逐步復甦。

Transportation, our most challenged market this year, we are forecasting a mid-single-digit organic decline. In our Highway, we are forecasting a low single-digit decline. The ag market has moved past trough but needs a little more time before returning to positive. Construction is stronger than ag with recovery under [LORD]. And we expect positive low single-digit growth in energy, as well as HVAC and Refrigeration.

交通運輸是我們今年面臨的最大挑戰，我們預測其有機成長率將達到中等個位數。在我們的高速公路上，我們預測會出現個位數的低下降。農業市場已經走出低谷，但還需要一些時間才能恢復正成長。建築業強於農業，復甦在[主]。我們預計能源、暖通空調和冷凍產業將實現低個位數正成長。

At the midpoint, this results in 8% organic growth for Aerospace, approximately 1% organic growth for both Industrial North America and Industrial International, and approximately 3% total Parker organic growth.

中間值將導致航空航天部門有機增長 8%，北美工業部門和工業國際部門有機增長約 1%，派克整體有機增長約 3%。

I'll give it back to Todd to go through more details of the guidance.

我會將其交還給托德，讓他詳細了解該指南。

Okay. Thank you, Jenny. I'm on slide 16. We'll just go over a few items. Reported sales growth for the year is expected to be in the range of 2% to 5%. That's 3.5% at the midpoint. That will be approximately $20.6 billion in annual sales. And we have modeled those sales 48% in the first half, 52% in the second half. And consistent with our practice, this guidance does not include any impact from the Curtis Instruments acquisition. We will add Curtis to our guide once it closes.

好的。謝謝你，珍妮。我在第 16 張投影片。我們只討論其中的幾個項目。預計今年的銷售額成長率將在 2% 至 5% 之間。中間值為 3.5%。這將是年銷售額約 206 億美元。我們已經模擬出上半年的銷售額為 48%，下半年為 52%。與我們的慣例一致，本指引不包括收購柯蒂斯儀器公司的任何影響。一旦關閉，我們將把 Curtis 添加到我們的指南中。

If you look at organic growth, Jenny mentioned this, but the forecast is in the range of 1.5% to 4.5%, or 3% at the midpoint. Aerospace is again 8% at the midpoint and both North America and International, we expect 1%. Organic growth is modeled 2% first half, and 4% in second half. Currency, as usual is based on the June 30 spot rates, and based on our math here, it shows that, that's expected to be favorable by 1.5%, or roughly $260 million.

如果你看一下有機成長，珍妮提到了這一點，但預測是在 1.5% 到 4.5% 的範圍內，或中間值為 3%。航空航太業的中點成長率再次達到 8%，而北美和國際市場我們預期成長率為 1%。有機成長率預計上半年為 2%，下半年為 4%。貨幣通常基於 6 月 30 日的現貨匯率，根據我們的計算，預計這一數字將上漲 1.5%，約 2.6 億美元。

On margins, adjusted segment operating margin guidance is 26.5% at the midpoint. That is an increase of 40 basis points versus the FY25 finish. And in respect to incrementals, we have modeled roughly 35% for the full year on incrementals.

就利潤率而言，調整後的分部營業利益率指引中間值為 26.5%。與 2025 財年末相比，這一數字增加了 40 個基點。就增量而言，我們已經為全年增量建模了大約 35%。

Just a few things to note. Below segment operating income. Corporate G&A is approximately $200 million. Interest expense, approximately $390 million. And other expenses, approximately $80 million. All of those are at the midpoint.

只需注意以下幾點。低於分部營業收入。公司一般及行政開支約 2 億美元。利息支出約3.9億美元。以及其他費用約8000萬美元。所有這些都處於中間點。

Tax rate, we are modeling a 22.5% tax rate. As usual, we are not including any unknown discretes in that number. 22.5% is what we have modeled. And EPS for the full year is expected to be $28.90 on an adjusted basis at the midpoint. That is an increase of 6% versus prior year. We have a range of $0.50 on both sides of that $28.90. And the split on EPS is 46% first half, 54% second half.

稅率，我們正在模擬22.5%的稅率。像往常一樣，我們沒有在該數字中包含任何未知的離散量。 22.5％ 就是我們所建模的。預計全年每股收益（按中點調整後）為 28.90 美元。與上年相比，成長了 6%。我們在28.90美元左右的區間內設定了0.50美元的區間。每股盈餘的分配比例是：上半年為46%，下半年為54%。

Lastly with respect to cash flow. Full year free cash flow is expected to be in the range of $3 billion to [$3.4 billion] (corrected by company after the call), with conversion at approximately 100%. And lastly, on the far right column here, you could see what we have highlighted for Q1, FY26. All of these numbers are at the midpoint. Reported sales are roughly 0.5% positive. Organic growth is 2% positive, and we are forecasting 26.1% for adjusted segment margins, and an adjusted EPS of $6.51.

最後關於現金流。預計全年自由現金流將在 30 億美元至 34 億美元之間（電話會議後公司已進行修正），轉換率約為 100%。最後，在最右邊一欄，您可以看到我們重點介紹的 26 財年第一季的內容。所有這些數字都處於中間點。報告的銷售額約為正 0.5%。有機成長率為 2%，我們預測調整後的分部利潤率為 26.1%，調整後的每股盈餘為 6.51 美元。

As usual, we have some further details in the appendix if those are helpful for your model. Lastly on slide 17, this is just a bridge, and I'll just highlight as we walk through this. We are forecasting a 5% increase in adjusted segment operating income dollars which translates to $1.68 in additional EPS. Share count, based off of that year-to-date repurchase amount is roughly $0.37 of improvement in EPS for FY26.

像往常一樣，如果這些對您的模型有幫助，我們會在附錄中提供一些進一步的詳細資訊。最後在第 17 張幻燈片上，這只是一座橋樑，在我們瀏覽它時，我只會突出顯示。我們預測調整後的部門營業收入將增加 5%，相當於每股收益增加 1.68 美元。根據年初至今的回購金額計算，股票數量約為 26 財年每股收益增加 0.37 美元。

Corporate G&A are forecasted to be $0.18 favorable. And again, interest rate will give a little bit of a tailwind, $0.11 for the year. The forecasted tax rate of 22% is a headwind of $0.77 compared to the effective tax rate that we realized in FY25. Once again, that does not include any discrete items. So in summary, we are guiding FY26 $28.90 and adjusted EPS, that is up 6%.

預計企業一般及行政開支將為 0.18 美元。再次，利率將帶來一點順風，全年利率為 0.11 美元。預測稅率為 22%，與我們在 25 財年實現的實際稅率相比，不利稅率為 0.77 美元。再次強調，這不包括任何離散項目。總而言之，我們預計 26 財年每股收益為 28.90 美元，調整後每股收益將上漲 6%。

And with that, I'm going to ask you to move to slide 18. And Jenny, I will hand it back to you.

接下來，請您移至第 18 張投影片。珍妮，我會把它交還給你。

Thank you, Todd. So I'll close with a reminder on what drives Parker. And again, thank you to all the Parker team members for a fantastic fiscal year '25 and a very, very promising FY26. Safety and engagement and ownership are the foundation of our culture. It's our people and our purpose that drives top quartile performance, and we remain committed to being great generators and deployers of cash.

謝謝你，托德。最後，我想回顧一下帕克的驅動力。再次感謝派克團隊的所有成員，感謝他們為 2025 財年做出的出色貢獻以及為 2026 財年做出的非常有希望的貢獻。安全、參與和所有權是我們文化的基礎。我們的員工和目標推動我們取得最高四分位的業績，我們將繼續致力於成為偉大的現金創造者和部署者。

Okay Boe. So, we are ready to start the Q&A session.

好的，Boe。那麼，我們準備開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

Congrats on another great year. Can we just maybe talk about the Q1 guide. Take a look at that relative to the last few years, it's a pretty meaningful sequential step down in EPS relative to what you've seen even just like the last three years. So can you guys maybe just talk about like the bridge between 4Q to 1Q, and what's really changing on the margin embedded in your guide?

恭喜你又度過了美好的一年。我們可以談談 Q1 指南嗎？與過去幾年相比，與過去三年相比，每股盈餘出現了相當明顯的連續下降。那麼，你們能否談談 4Q 和 1Q 之間的橋樑，以及指南中嵌入的邊緣真正發生了哪些變化？

I'll start, Joe, and then I'll let Todd to follow up if he has any more comments. So first of all, we have very little sales growth in Q1, and this EPS guidance for Q1 is a 5% increase year-over-year. And this margin at 26.1% does have 40 basis points of margin expansion and is a Q1 record -- will be a Q1 record. So I think I think this is a good starting point for the year for us.

喬，我先開始，然後我會讓托德跟進，看看他是否還有其他評論。首先，我們第一季的銷售額成長很小，而第一季的每股盈餘預期年增 5%。26.1% 的利潤率確實擴大了 40 個基點，創下了第一季的記錄——也將創下第一季的記錄。所以我認為這對我們來說是一個好的開始。

Yes, Joe, I would add, we do have -- sequentially, it's hard to go from Q4 to Q1. Q1 being obviously the start of our fiscal year, we do have to recognize some of the stock comp that is a big hit in Q1. If you look at that versus prior year, Jenny mentioned this, but we're forecasting 80 basis points of margin expansion, Q1 '26 versus '25, and EPS is a little over 4% of an increase.

是的，喬，我想補充一點，我們確實有——連續地，從第四季到第一季很難。第一季顯然是我們財政年度的開始，我們確實必須認識到第一季受到重創的一些股票補償。如果與去年同期相比，珍妮提到了這一點，但我們預測 26 年第一季與 25 年相比利潤率將擴大 80 個基點，每股收益將增長 4% 多一點。

40 basis points.

40個基點。

I'm sorry, 40 basis points, yes.

抱歉，是的，40個基點。

Okay. All right. Yes. No, it looks a touch conservative, but that's okay. I guess maybe just a broader question. It seems -- sounded like you were seeing some green shoots across your businesses. Maybe just kind of talk through, especially the industrial short cycle business is what you're seeing there?

好的。好的。是的。不，它看起來有點保守，但沒關係。我想這可能只是一個更廣泛的問題。聽起來，您似乎看到了業務上的一些復甦跡象。也許只是談談，特別是您所看到的工業短週期業務？

And then also, can you just touch on like the self-help opportunity for this year as well? Clearly, you've did a great job from a margin perspective. If you can just touch on those two points, that would be great.

另外，您能否也談談今年的自助機會？顯然，從利潤角度來看，您做得很好。如果您能談談這兩點，那就太好了。

Sure. So taking a look at in-plant and industrial equipment guidance. So we have that at a positive low single digit for the year. And as I mentioned, that does assume a gradual industrial recovery.

當然。因此，請查看工廠內部和工業設備指導。因此，今年的成長率為正低個位數。正如我所提到的，這確實假設工業將逐步復甦。

I mean, I would say, Todd mentioned this already, but distributor sentiment does remain positive. And I think we're in a good position to benefit from some of the customer supply chain actions. So we'll benefit from increased MRO activity. Any factory retooling or spending that's going on and our distributors will participate in that.

我的意思是，我想說，托德已經提到了這一點，但分銷商的情緒確實仍然保持積極。我認為我們處於有利地位，可以從一些客戶供應鏈行動中受益。因此，我們將受益於增加的 MRO 活動。任何正在進行的工廠改造或支出，我們的分銷商都會參與其中。

They continue to tell us. I was on a distributor visit just in the last month. They continue to tell us that they're quoting. And the activity is there. Just fill some of those delays that we've been talking about now for a few quarters.

他們繼續告訴我們。就在上個月，我拜訪了一位經銷商。他們繼續告訴我們他們正在引用。活動就在那裡。只需填補我們幾個季度以來一直在討論的一些延遲問題。

When you look at transportation, I mentioned that, that is going to be our most challenged market this year. There's some near-term pressure in both auto and truck markets. We think they're -- end users, they're delaying their purchasing decisions due to the uncertainty on cost, timing of new emission requirements, and current interest rate levels. We think that's all buying into that. So again, it will be a challenged market for us.

我提到過，就交通運輸而言，這將是我們今年面臨的最大挑戰的市場。汽車和卡車市場近期都面臨一些壓力。我們認為他們是最終用戶，由於成本、新排放要求的時間以及當前利率水準的不確定性，他們正在推遲購買決定。我們認為大家都相信這一點。因此，這對我們來說又將是一個充滿挑戰的市場。

Off-highway, our guidance is at negative low single digit. But there's improvement here. It turned out to be a little bit better. Construction was a little bit better in Q4 than we thought it would be, and we see that continuing. We see that recovery underway. A lot of the ongoing and announced infrastructure here is going to be a plus. But the ag market, while we do believe that it's moved past a trough, we think that it's going to be a little bit of time before it returns to positive. Again, cost uncertainty, interest rates, crop prices, all factors here.

非公路用車方面，我們的預期是負低個位數。但這裡有所改進。結果稍微好一點。第四季的建築業比我們想像的要好一些，而且我們認為這種情況會持續下去。我們看到復甦正在進行中。這裡許多正在建設和已宣布的基礎設施將會成為優勢。但對於農業市場，雖然我們確實相信它已經走出了低谷，但我們認為它還需要一段時間才能恢復正成長。再一次，成本不確定性、利率、農作物價格，都是這裡的因素。

So we see improvement, and that's why we have the guide where it is. But obviously, there's some opportunity here.

因此我們看到了進步，這就是我們有指南的原因。但顯然，這裡存在一些機會。

No, Joe, I would just add, your question on self-help. Obviously, everything we have on the Win Strategy is a self-help margin enhancing process of tools. But we are forecasting slightly higher restructuring this year versus what we did last year, just in some of those regions or some of those end markets that may need attention.

不，喬，我只是想補充你關於自助的問題。顯然，我們在「贏」策略上所擁有的一切，都是自助式利潤提升工具的過程。但我們預測今年的重組幅度將比去年略高，只是在某些地區或某些可能需要關注的終端市場。

Yes. We still -- you've heard me say before, we're very confident in our ability to expand margins with these tools. It's obviously showed in what we've done in all of the business in this past fiscal year and the ones before. But we have great teams that are using these tools on a regular basis and really delivering great results. It will continue.

是的。我們仍然－你之前聽我說過，我們對利用這些工具擴大利潤的能力非常有信心。這顯然體現在我們在過去這個財年以及之前幾個財年的所有業務中。但我們擁有優秀的團隊，他們定期使用這些工具，並確實取得了出色的成果。這種情況將會持續下去。

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

傑夫·斯普拉格（Jeff Sprague），Vertical Research Partners。

Jenny or Todd, maybe you could just speak a little bit more to Curtis, kind of where the margin profile is on a Parker comparable basis, what kind of improvement you can get in the business from a synergy standpoint relative to the deal plan that you must have internally?

珍妮或託德，也許您可以和柯蒂斯多談談，比如在帕克可比基礎上的利潤率狀況，從協同效應的角度來看，相對於您內部必須擁有的交易計劃，您可以在業務中獲得什麼樣的改進？

And what's the growth been like in that business recently? How is it performing in 2025?

最近該業務的成長情況如何？2025年的表現如何？

Yes. Sure, Jeff, I'd be happy to. We're really excited about bringing Curtis on to the Parker team. So we chose not to disclose their margins, more about the size of this deal. But initially, the margins will be dilutive, but we see a clear path to accretion with the Win Strategy. The tools we were just talking about and with synergies.

是的。當然，傑夫，我很樂意。我們非常高興柯蒂斯能夠加入帕克團隊。因此我們選擇不揭露他們的利潤率，而更多地揭露這筆交易的規模。但最初，利潤率將會被稀釋，但我們看到，透過「贏」策略，利潤率將有一條清晰的成長之路。我們剛才談論的工具具有協同作用。

We expect, like you've seen with our past deals, full synergies within three years, and relative size would be similar to the LORD and Meggitt deals. That's what we're looking at right now. Historically, Curtis sales have grown mid-single digit to high single digit over the past 5- to 10 years. So really nice growth profile with them.

我們預計，就像您從我們過去的交易中看到的那樣，三年內將實現全面的協同效應，相對規模將與 LORD 和 Meggitt 交易相似。這就是我們現在所關注的。從歷史上看，過去 5 到 10 年間，Curtis 的銷售額一直保持著中個位數到高個位數的成長。所以他們的成長狀況確實很好。

Yes, Jeff, I would add -- the only thing I would add is if you look at what we were forecasting for '26, the segment operating income dollars roughly $5.5 billion worth of segment operating income. That does not include Curtis. So to Jenny's point, this will be slightly dilutive, but it's small in scale compared to where it fits in the total company.

是的，傑夫，我想補充一點——我唯一想補充的是，如果你看看我們對 26 年的預測，分部營業收入約為 55 億美元。這其中還不包括柯蒂斯。所以正如珍妮所說，這會產生輕微的稀釋作用，但與整個公司相比，其規模很小。

Right. It would be margin dilutive. I know you don't want to give an EPS number yet, but it looks like it's EPS accretive, right? Margin dilutive, EPS accretive?

正確的。這將會稀釋利潤率。我知道您還不想給出 EPS 數字，但它看起來是 EPS 增值的，對嗎？利潤率被稀釋，每股盈餘被增加？

Correct.

正確的。

Yes. We expect EPS accretion in the first year.

是的。我們預計第一年每股收益將成長。

Yes, absolutely. Okay. And then just on international orders. I guess, Todd, your comment alluded to the fact that maybe the softness here in Q4 was because you got some chunky orders in Q3. Maybe you could just elaborate a little bit more on that and what's going on sort of in the international order pipeline?

是的，絕對是。好的。然後只針對國際訂單。我想，托德，你的評論暗示了這樣一個事實，也許第四季度的疲軟是因為你在第三季收到了一些大訂單。也許您可以更詳細地闡述這一點以及國際訂單管道的進展？

Sure. And Jeff, I'll take that one. So yes, Todd did mention that, that we -- in Q3, we had a very strong long-cycle orders in International. We saw that in HVAC refrigeration, power gen and Aerospace and Defense. They didn't repeat in Q4, but we did see EMEA slightly positive with energy remaining really strong.

當然。傑夫，我接受這個。是的，托德確實提到過，在第三季度，我們在國際上擁有非常強勁的長週期訂單。我們在暖通空調製冷、發電以及航空航天和國防領域看到了這一點。它們在第四季度沒有重複，但我們確實看到 EMEA 略有積極跡象，能源仍然強勁。

And then in Asia, orders were slightly negative, and that was really more about a challenging comp to the prior year. But if you look at the order dollars, they were flat sequentially to Q3. So that really explains the difference between Q3 and Q4 and that drop that we saw.

然後在亞洲，訂單略有下降，與前一年相比，這確實更具挑戰性。但如果你看一下訂單金額，你會發現與第三季相比持平。這確實解釋了第三季和第四季之間的差異以及我們看到的下降。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

戴維斯 (Scott Davis)，Melius Research。

Jenny and Todd, congrats on a good year. Just want to follow on just Curtis and then combine that with the big buyback, or the $1.6 billion that you've done. Is that an indication that you expect M&A to continue to be more of kind of the smaller bolt-on type stuff? Or Am I reading too much into that?

珍妮和托德，祝賀你們度過了美好的一年。只想跟進柯蒂斯，然後將其與大規模回購或您已完成的 16 億美元相結合。這是否表明您預計併購將繼續更多地成為小型附加類型的交易？或者我是不是想太多了？

Well, like you've heard me say many times in the past, Scott. We have deals of all sizes in our pipeline. It can be small and bolt-on, or there could be something larger out there. As we said, timing is hard to predict. But obviously, our strategy remains the same.

好吧，就像你過去聽我說過很多次的那樣，斯科特。我們正在籌備各種規模的交易。它可以很小並且用螺栓固定，或者可能有更大的東西。正如我們所說，時間很難預測。但顯然，我們的策略保持不變。

We want to acquire companies. We're the clear best owner fits in with our interconnected technologies and follows the secular trends that we've talked about here for a while. So it doesn't mean that they'll all be this size, but we're going to continue to work that pipeline. It's building those strong relationships and making sure that we're ready when they're ready.

我們想收購公司。我們顯然是最適合我們的互聯技術並遵循我們在這裡討論過的長期趨勢的最佳所有者。所以這並不意味著它們都會有這麼大的尺寸，但我們將繼續建造這條管道。它正在建立牢固的關係並確保當他們做好準備時我們也做好準備。

Yes, Scott, I would just add, you've heard us talk. We want to operate with net gross debt to adjusted EBITDA around 2x. We finished the year at roughly [1x] (corrected by company after the call). So we do have, obviously, capacity to do something even below 2x. But the cash flow generation profile that the company has really gives us lots of optionality.

是的，史考特，我只想補充一點，你已經聽到我們說話了。我們希望淨總債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率達到 2 倍左右。我們大約在[1x]（通話後公司已更正）。因此，顯然，我們有能力做一些甚至低於 2 倍的事情。但該公司的現金流生成狀況確實為我們提供了許多選擇。

You saw us be active with the share repurchase this year. And we'll constantly balance what the best use of our capital is, and that's what we expect to do throughout FY26.

您看到我們今年積極進行股票回購。我們將持續平衡資本的最佳用途，這也是我們預計在 2026 財年所做的。

Yes. Makes sense. Guys, I don't think you mentioned tariffs. I know it's not -- it wasn't a big deal even last quarter. But just curious, is the lack of kind of mention of tariffs and indication that you've just been able to capture price to offset any impacts?

是的。有道理。夥計們，我認為你們沒有提到關稅。我知道這不是什麼大問題——即使在上個季度也不是什麼大問題。但只是好奇，是否沒有提到關稅，並且表明您已經能夠控制價格以抵消任何影響？

I'm trying to kind of picture how 85 different P&Ls kind of manage something that's such a big, complex global issue, but maybe you can address both of those in some way in your answer, if you can?

我試著想像 85 個不同的損益表如何管理如此龐大、複雜的全球性問題，但也許您可以在您的回答中以某種方式解決這兩個問題，如果可以的話？

Sure. Sure, Scott. So first, I would just say our teams are doing a fantastic job managing tariffs and making sure that there's no impact to earnings per share. But you probably heard us say pricing is something that is a strong muscle for us. I mean this is a function within Parker Hannifin. And these divisions have pricing leaders. And there's a lot of coordination within the groups and across the enterprise. Obviously, because a lot of our businesses share the same customers.

當然。當然，斯科特。首先，我想說我們的團隊在管理關稅方面做得非常出色，並確保不會對每股盈餘產生影響。但您可能聽我們說過，定價是我們的強項。我的意思是這是派克漢尼汾內部的一個功能。這些部門都有定價領導者。各個團隊內部以及整個企業內部都需要大量的協調。顯然，因為我們的許多業務都有相同的客戶。

So it's a lot of work. I'm not going to say that it's not. Its been a whole lot of work for them. But they had this down path. They've done really a great job with it, and we have the analytics. We have these robust processes, and we've been able to navigate and act very quickly. So we didn't talk about it because we feel like we have it covered and it's going to continue to evolve and change, but we're going to make sure that it doesn't impact EPS.

所以這需要做很多工作。我不會說事實並非如此。對他們來說這真是一項艱鉅的工作。但他們卻走上了這條下行之路。他們在這方面做得非常出色，而且我們有分析數據。我們擁有這些強大的流程，並且能夠非常快速地導航和採取行動。因此我們沒有談論它，因為我們覺得我們已經涵蓋了它，並且它會繼續發展和變化，但我們會確保它不會影響每股收益。

I would just ask, you know us pretty well. Pricing is one of the levers we're able to flex, but it's also our global footprint. It's our local-for-local model that we've had for years. It's really our supply chain team. It's really creative with dual sourcing and the ability to ship from multiple regions. So pricing is a big piece of it, but it's not the only tool.

我只是想問一下，你對我們很了解。定價是我們能夠靈活運用的槓桿之一，但它也是我們的全球影響力。這是我們多年來一直在推行的本地服務本地模式。這實際上是我們的供應鏈團隊。雙重採購和從多個地區發貨的能力確實很有創意。因此定價是其中很重要的一部分，但它並不是唯一的工具。

Yes. Our global capacity has been really a good thing for us.

是的。我們的全球產能對我們來說確實是件好事。

Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

瑞銀的阿米特·梅赫羅特拉 (Amit Mehrotra)。

Just a follow-up to that earlier comment. I just wondered if you can help us sort of bifurcate the exceptional margin performance and resilience between price and lower costs. I know each of the 85 divisions has its own pricing managers. So obviously, pricing is a focus. But one thing I noticed is the absolute cost base of the company also went down in fiscal '25, which was pretty amazing, just given just inflation has been a little bit higher.

這只是對先前評論的後續。我只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們在價格和較低成本之間區分出卓越的利潤表現和彈性。我知道 85 個部門都有自己的定價經理。顯然，定價是一個重點。但我注意到的一件事是，該公司的絕對成本基礎在 25 財年也有所下降，考慮到通貨膨脹率略高，這相當令人驚訝。

So can you help us kind of think about those two things? And is there an opportunity for the OpEx space, or the cost base, to actually move down on absolute basis after the huge performance in '25? Or are we just entering a more maybe normalized period where the cost base will mirror kind of normal inflation?

那你能幫助我們思考這兩件事嗎？在 25 年取得巨大成功之後，營運支出空間或成本基礎是否有機會真正絕對下降？或者我們只是進入一個更正常化的時期，其中成本基礎將反映正常的通貨膨脹？

Well, we -- thanks for the question, Amit. It gives you the opportunity again to just talk about the power of the Win Strategy. And our teams are focused on reducing cost and expanding margin like I said earlier, even when we have a negative organic growth environment. So this is our continuous improvement culture.

嗯，我們——謝謝你的提問，阿米特。它再次為您提供了談論“勝利策略”力量的機會。正如我之前所說，即使我們面臨負面的有機成長環境，我們的團隊也專注於降低成本和擴大利潤率。這就是我們的持續改善文化。

It's our culture of Kaizen. It's not -- we've never been waiting for something to happen. This is just our ongoing way of running our operations and running our businesses. So yes, there is opportunity to further reduce cost, and our teams are working on that all the time.

這就是我們的「Kaizen」文化。事實並非如此——我們從來沒有等待過某事發生。這只是我們持續經營和經營業務的方式。所以是的，有機會進一步降低成本，我們的團隊一直在努力實現這一目標。

We just had a great lean system and a very nice suite of tools that helps each one of those general managers do what they need to do in their business. And they're not all the same. So that's the nice thing about the Win strategy is. You can pull from that toolbox, as I like to say, and improve your business in many ways. And obviously, the teams are doing a great job of that.

我們剛剛擁有一個出色的精實系統和一套非常好的工具，可以幫助每位總經理完成他們在業務中需要做的事情。而且它們並不全都一樣。這就是 Win 策略的優點。正如我所說，您可以從該工具箱中獲取信息，並通過多種方式改善您的業務。顯然，各團隊在這方面做得非常好。

It is a testament to the decentralization of the organization. Those 85 P&Ls have business leaders that are making decisions constantly. We've been taking costs out of the business for over a decade. And you saw that on the charts that Jenny has shown. We've talked about this a lot. We've changed our compensation structure to reward and be flexible with the flexes of business. And I think that's been a nice plus to the profile and cost as well.

這是該組織權力下放的證明。這 85 家公司的損益表都有企業領導者不斷做出決策。十多年來，我們一直在降低業務成本。您可以在珍妮展示的圖表上看到這一點。我們已經討論過很多次了。我們已經改變了薪酬結構，以便獎勵員工並靈活地適應業務的變化。我認為這對產品形象和成本也是一個很好的補充。

So just a follow-up to that. If that's all true, then why is 35% incrementals the right number for '26? Because you're in the 40s in Aero and International -- I mean, the decremental margins are, I think, in North America, we're like 2% or something like that. It just would strike me as maybe an opportunity to overachieve when the volumes move up, just given what the pricing base is and all that stuff that you just talked about on costs. Is that just conservatism, good placeholder? Or is there something happening that maybe meets the incrementals?

這只是對此的一個跟進。如果這一切都是真的，那麼為什麼 35% 的增量是 26 年的正確數字？因為你在 Aero 和國際上處於 40 年代——我的意思是，我認為在北美，遞減的利潤率是 2% 或類似的水平。考慮到定價基礎以及您剛才談到的有關成本的所有因素，我認為這也許是當銷售量上升時實現超額完成目標的一個機會。這僅僅是保守主義嗎？好的佔位符？或者是否發生了一些可能符合增量的事情？

Well, it is a gradual movement to positive. It's a 1% organic growth in the industrial side of the business that is 70% of the company. So I don't look at this as being conservative. Normally, we say model 30. We're 35% that's what we normally would have. I think we just need to see how it plays out.

嗯，這是一個逐步到正面的轉變。工業業務占公司總業務的 70%，有機成長率為 1%。所以我不認為這是保守的做法。通常我們說的是 30 型。我們的比率是 35%，這與我們通常的比率一致。我認為我們只需要看看事情會如何發展。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citi.

花旗銀行的安迪‧卡普洛維茲 (Andy Kaplowitz)。

Jenny or Todd, could you give us a little more color on how you're thinking about A&D for '26? Or is there obviously so strong in Q4? Were they stronger on the defense side versus commercial? When you look at that 8% growth for '26, is the growth pretty balanced between defense and commercial and aftermarket and OE? How are you thinking about that?

珍妮 (Jenny) 或託德 (Todd)，您能否向我們詳細介紹一下您對 26 年 A&D 的看法？還是Q4明顯這麼強？他們在防守方面比商業方面更強嗎？當您看到 26 年 8% 的成長率時，國防、商業、售後市場和 OE 之間的成長是否相當均衡？您對此有何看法？

Yes. So I'll take that, Andy. So again, full year organic growth at 8% and we see that on continued MRO strength and gradual OEM recovery. We have commercial OEM to be low double-digit growth, commercial MRO of high single-digit growth, dispense OEM, we have at mid-single-digit growth, and defense MRO, we have at mid-single-digit growth.

是的。所以我接受，安迪。因此，全年有機成長率為 8%，我們看到 MRO 持續強勁成長以及 OEM 逐步復甦。我們的商用 OEM 實現了低兩位數成長，商用 MRO 實現了高個位數成長，分銷 OEM 實現了中位數個位數成長，國防 MRO 實現了中等個位數成長。

So again, it's going to be another great year for Aerospace. We're coming off of three years of double-digit organic growth. We ended Q4 at about 9%, and we have Q1 at 8%. And as I said, we have the year modeled at about 8%. So again, it's going to be another good year.

所以，對於航空航太業來說，這又將是偉大的一年。我們已連續三年實現兩位數的有機成長。我們第四季的成長率約為 9%，第一季的成長率為 8%。正如我所說，我們今年的模型成長率約為 8%。所以，這又會是美好的一年。

Very helpful. And then, Todd, you're guiding to call it mid-single-digit plus EPS growth at the midpoint for '26, but free cash flow at the midpoint is slightly lower. I would have thought that you get a little bit of cash tax help from The Big Beautiful Bill. So maybe just reconcile the forecast?

非常有幫助。然後，托德，你預計 26 年中點的 EPS 增長將達到中等個位數，但中點的自由現金流略低。我原本以為你會從《美麗大法案》中獲得一點現金稅收幫助。那也許只是調和預測？

Yes, we are digesting the One Big Beautiful Bill, for sure. And that will be a benefit, to be honest with you, that's more of an FY27 benefit for us versus an FY26 benefit. But on cash flow, there's a few things. Obviously, when you're looking at net income, we had a few onetime items. We had some divestitures. We had some discrete tax items. We had some facility sales that helped build up the as reported net income.

是的，我們確實在消化《美麗大法案》。老實說，這將是一項福利，對我們來說，這更多的是一項 FY27 福利，而不是 FY26 福利。但就現金流而言，有幾件事需要注意。顯然，當您查看淨收入時，我們會發現有一些一次性項目。我們進行了一些資產剝離。我們有一些單獨的稅項。我們進行了一些設施銷售，這有助於增加報告的淨收入。

This year, we do expect industrial to grow. So in the previous years, we were getting a benefit from working capital. We do think there'll be some investment there to support growth there. I think you saw we called out 2.5% CapEx. That's higher than what we've historically done. This is really all making sure we have capacity in the businesses that need it, and that we are investing appropriately in automation and robotics and productivity.

今年我們確實預計工業將會成長。因此，在過去的幾年裡，我們從營運資金中獲得了收益。我們確實認為那裡會有一些投資來支持那裡的成長。我想您已經看到我們提出了 2.5% 的資本支出。這比我們歷史上的水準要高。這實際上是為了確保我們在需要的業務中擁有產能，並且我們在自動化、機器人和生產力方面進行適當的投資。

I did mention we do have a little bit more restructuring that we expect to do in FY26 versus '25. And then Jenny mentioned Curtis, we're going to have some onetime costs associated with the acquisition and the integration, and the cost to achieve the synergies that we've had laid out there. So we still feel really good about the number. We still think it's very much to have quartile from a cash flow standpoint, and we're going to obviously try to outshoot that number.

我確實提到過，我們預計在 2026 財年與 2025 財年相比會進行更多一些重組。然後珍妮提到了柯蒂斯，我們將產生一些與收購和整合相關的一次性成本，以及實現我們已經列出的協同效應的成本。所以我們仍然對這個數字感到非常滿意。我們仍然認為從現金流的角度來看，四分位數非常重要，而且我們顯然會努力超越這個數字。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

Just a question on Aerospace. You had a re-acceleration in Aerospace orders in the past couple of quarters. I think, from high single digit to 14% in the third quarter, 12% in fourth quarter. Can you just talk about this re-acceleration what's driving this?

我只是想問一下關於航空航天的問題。過去幾個季度，航空航天訂單再次加速成長。我認為，從高個位數到第三季的14%，第四季的12%。您能否談談這種再加速的推動因素是什麼？

I think, Andrew, for the most part, what we've seen here is the commercial transport rate is increasing and wide-body rates are growing to meet international traffic. So I think that's been some of it. And as air traffic growth overall continues, the aftermarket is continuing to grow.

安德魯，我認為，在很大程度上，我們看到的是商業運輸費率正在上升，寬體客機費率也在成長，以滿足國際運輸需求。所以我認為這就是其中的一部分。隨著空中交通總量持續成長，售後市場也持續成長。

And then we have everything that's going on in defense as well. So there's been a continued demand for all of the legacy programs. There's continued growth in the Department of Defense budget. So we've seen some nice orders come in. And as you know, those are all longer cycle orders.

然後我們在防守方面也做了一切準備。因此，所有遺留程序的需求一直持續存在。國防部預算持續成長。因此，我們看到了一些不錯的訂單。如您所知，這些都是週期較長的訂單。

And I appreciate you gave some detail here. But last year, you had 7% organic Aerospace orders, and you delivered 13% organic growth. This year, you had 12% organic air orders and guiding to 8% at the midpoint. Can you just help us understand the dynamic between orders and forecast a little bit better versus last year?

我很感謝您在這裡提供了一些細節。但去年，你們的航空航太訂單有機成長了 7%，實現了 13% 的有機成長。今年，您的有機空運訂單量為 12%，預計中位數為 8%。您能否幫助我們更了解訂單和預測之間的動態，與去年相比？

Well, like I was just saying, Andrew, these orders come in and they're longer cycle, right? We have backlog coverage of over 100% right now in Aerospace, and we have a record backlog, right? So the orders are coming in higher. There's only so much that can be built at a time. And as rates increase, we'll enjoy more of that.

好吧，就像我剛才說的，安德魯，這些訂單進來的周期更長，對嗎？我們目前在航空航太領域的積壓訂單覆蓋率已超過 100％，並且創下了積壓訂單記錄，對嗎？因此訂單越來越多。一次只能建造這麼多東西。隨著利率上升，我們將享受更多。

But we stay really close to our customers, all of our customers, but in Aerospace, we know what they're planning on building. We know what those rates are. And we have really good visibility to the demand and their capacity. So we think Aerospace at 8% -- Q1, 8% versus Q4 at 9%. We think it's really right in line.

但我們與客戶、所有客戶都保持著密切聯繫，但在航空航太領域，我們知道他們計劃建造什麼。我們知道這些比率是多少。我們對需求和產能有很好的了解。因此我們認為航空航太業的成長率為 8%——第一季為 8%，而第四季為 9%。我們認為這確實是正確的。

Andrew, we're expecting that to be pretty consistent throughout the year. There's no real ramp on what we're forecasting here. And every one of those numbers will be a quarterly record for Aerospace. So the momentum continues.

安德魯，我們預計全年情況將保持相當穩定。我們目前的預測並沒有出現真正的成長。每一個數字都將成為航空航太業的季度記錄。因此這種勢頭仍在持續。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe just wanted to start with the Industrial growth outlook. So it sounds like Aerospace is sort of pegged at 8% growth in the first quarter and through the balance of the year. Maybe help us understand within Industrial, what's dialed in for sort of the first quarter, and then the slope of that acceleration on organic sales?

也許只是想從工業成長前景開始。因此聽起來航空航天業在第一季和全年的成長率預計為 8%。也許可以幫助我們了解工業領域第一季的銷售情況，以及有機銷售加速的斜率？

And anything you've seen around pull forward of demand by distributors, or OEM customers because of tariffs?

您是否曾經看過因關稅而導致經銷商或 OEM 客戶需求提前的情況？

Yes. I would first just start off saying, Julian, that we're not seeing any evidence of a pull forward. There's nothing that I could point to that would show that. For industrial, for Q1 in North America, we're forecasting negative 1.5% organic growth and positive 0.5% for International. So total industrial, we're still showing it slightly negative here at approximately 1%.

是的。朱利安，首先我要說的是，我們沒有看到任何向前拉的跡象。我沒有任何證據可以證明這一點。對於工業，我們預測北美第一季有機成長率為負 1.5%，國際成長率為正 0.5%。因此，我們仍然顯示整個工業的成長率略微為負，約為 1%。

When we look at North America, in particular, I talked about what we're seeing across the market verticals. But in North America, we're seeing gradual implant industrial recovery. And as I mentioned, positive sentiment from the distribution channel, a lot of increased quoting activity. But as I mentioned, transportation is challenged in auto and trucks.

當我們特別關注北美時，我談到了我們在整個垂直市場看到的情況。但在北美，我們看到植入物產業正在逐步復甦。正如我所提到的，分銷管道的情緒積極，報價活動大量增加。但正如我所提到的，汽車和卡車運輸面臨挑戰。

Construction is getting better. Ag is still weak. Power Gen is strong, in our energy vertical, oil and gas still a little weak. In HVAC, it's really coming off of a strong fiscal year '25 with a lot of the refrigerant changes. We expect it to be low single-digit growth in fiscal year '26, and that will be more around commercial and refrigeration than it was residential in fiscal year '25.

建築施工越來越好。Ag 仍然疲軟。發電業實力雄厚，但在我們能源垂直領域，石油和天然氣仍略顯薄弱。在暖通空調領域，25財年表現強勁，冷媒發生了許多變化。我們預計 26 財年的成長速度將低於個位數，而且主要集中在商業和冷凍領域，而非 25 財年的住宅領域。

When we look at International, Industrial International, again, we had that full year expected to be at about 1%. Q1, again, at about 0.5%. Again, same assumption on a gradual industrial recovery. EMEA, flat to slightly positive organic growth for the fiscal year.

當我們再次關注國際、工業國際時，我們預計全年成長率約為 1%。Q1 再次約為 0.5%。再次，對工業逐步復甦的假設相同。歐洲、中東和非洲地區本財年有機成長持平或略有正成長。

Uncertainty remains. We expect continued weakness in transportation, especially auto and EMEA as well. But we also see that continued strength in energy, both oil and gas and power gen. And we think that this -- a lot of the proposed stimulus that we hear about in future defense spending is really going to be a long-term positive.

不確定性依然存在。我們預計交通運輸業將繼續疲軟，尤其是汽車業和歐洲、中東和非洲地區。但我們也看到能源（包括石油、天然氣和發電）持續保持強勁勢頭。我們認為，我們聽到的許多有關未來國防開支的刺激計劃實際上將產生長期的積極影響。

Asia Pacific, low single-digit positive organic growth for fiscal year '26. We'll continue to see strong demand from electronics and semicon. In-plants is mixed. There's project delays that are continuing in China, but we do see some growth in India and Japan. Off-highway still soft, but both in construction and mining. I would just say just overall continued uncertainty from tariffs across those markets.

亞太地區 26 財年實現低個位數正有機成長。我們將繼續看到電子和半導體的強勁需求。植物內部混雜。中國的項目仍在繼續延期，但我們確實看到印度和日本有所增長。非公路用車市場依然疲軟，但建築業和採礦業表現強勁。我只想說，這些市場的關稅總體上仍然存在不確定性。

In Latin America, Todd mentioned, we see low single-digit organic growth for fiscal year '26, and that's pretty much balanced growth across the verticals for them.

托德提到，在拉丁美洲，我們預計 26 財年的有機成長率將達到低個位數，而且對他們來說，各個垂直領域的成長基本上均衡。

That's very helpful. And just my follow-up, maybe circling back to the operating margin expansion guide. So it's up, I think, 40 bps in first quarter, and up 40 bps for the year as a whole. And as you said, that's sort of despite volume leverage accelerating through the year.

這非常有幫助。這只是我的後續問題，也許會回到營業利益率擴張指南。因此，我認為第一季利率上升了 40 個基點，全年利率上升了 40 個基點。正如您所說，儘管全年交易量槓桿率不斷加快，但情況仍然如此。

I just wondered maybe on that point, maybe is there some sort of mix effect in Aerospace, perhaps, that weighs later in the year maybe to do with Meggitt synergies being front half loaded, or the outgrowth of commercial aero OE versus commercial aero aftermarket? Anything like that sort of moving around in aero, or it's just pretty steady through the year?

我只是想知道，也許在這一點上，也許在航空航天領域存在某種混合效應，也許在今年晚些時候產生影響，可能與 Meggitt 協同效應的前半部分有關，或者與商用航空 OE 與商用航空售後市場的增長有關？航空領域是否有類似的變動，還是說全年都保持穩定？

That's just -- it's steady through the year. We are a specialty commercial OEM to be low double-digit growth and MRO of high single-digit growth. So they're kind of changing this year. But we see it pretty much the same throughout the whole year.

這只是——全年保持穩定。我們是一家專業的商用 OEM，實現低兩位數成長，MRO 實現高個位數成長。所以他們今年有所改變。但我們全年看到的都是差不多相同的情況。

Jamie Cook, Truist.

傑米·庫克（Jamie Cook），Truist。

Nice quarter and nice year. The first question. Just the North American margins in the quarter struck me like the strength of the margins. I think it's like one of your highest margin quarters despite a decline in sales and in organic growth. So was there anything unusual in that mix, pricing or something, which drove the margins high with organic sales down?

美好的一個季度，美好的一年。第一個問題。本季北美的利潤率就給我留下了深刻的印象。我認為，儘管銷售額和有機成長有所下降，但這仍然是利潤率最高的季度之一。那麼，這種組合、定價或其他方面是否存在異常，導致利潤率高而有機銷售下降？

And then, I guess, just my second question, just on the guide, Todd or Jenny. If we think about the past couple of years, the story of Parker has been while industrial has been weaker, aerospace is making up for any delay in recovery in industrial.

然後，我想，這只是我的第二個問題，只是關於導遊，托德還是珍妮。如果我們回顧過去幾年，我們會發現派克的故事是這樣的：雖然工業領域表現較弱，但航空航太領域正在彌補工業領域復甦的延遲。

I guess as you think about 2026, do you think there's greater risk that if industrial doesn't inflect that aero can't make up for it? Or perhaps you're just more bullish on industrial, just given at least we're seeing some resurgence in orders?

我想，當您想到 2026 年時，您是否認為如果工業不發生變化，航空業就無法彌補這一風險？或者也許您只是對工業更加看好，因為至少我們看到了訂單的回升？

Okay. So first question, yes. Q4 North America was just -- was great, expanded margins 170 basis points year-over-year. So really a nice quarter for them. We really had a favorable sales mix, specifically in our Engineered Materials Group and our Filtration group. So just exceptional performance with those two groups. And with strategy execution across the other groups as well, not to take anything away from them, but we had a nice favorable mix in those two areas.

好的。所以第一個問題，是的。第四季北美表現非常好，利潤率較去年同期擴大了 170 個基點。所以對他們來說這確實是一個不錯的季度。我們的銷售組合確實很有利，特別是在工程材料集團和過濾集團。所以這兩個團體的表現非常出色。而我們也在其他團隊中實施了策略，並不是要從他們那裡奪走任何東西，而是我們在這兩個領域取得了良好的組合效果。

As far as a risk in the future with industrial, I would say we have 1% organic growth in industrial. And I think our guide accurately reflects what we see in orders, what we see in backlog, what we know about what's going on in these market verticals. But all in all, I would say that all of us want to be bullish on industrial.

就工業未來的風險而言，我認為我們的工業有機成長率為 1%。我認為我們的指南準確地反映了我們在訂單中看到的情況、我們在積壓中看到的情況以及我們對這些垂直市場正在發生的事情的了解。但總而言之，我想說我們所有人都對工業持樂觀態度。

It's time, right? And as I said, we're poised for growth here. I'm not concerned that we won't be able to continue to expand margins and deliver this guide. I think that what we have here, and what we've been able to do in a negative organic growth environment in industrial, and even with aerospace at an 8%, we're going to be okay. We can make this happen.

是時候了，對吧？正如我所說，我們已準備好實現成長。我並不擔心我們無法繼續擴大利潤並提供這份指南。我認為，憑藉我們所擁有的以及我們在工業有機增長為負的環境下所取得的成績，甚至在航空航天業增長 8% 的情況下，我們都會沒事的。我們能夠實現這一點。

Mig Dobre, Baird.

米格·多布雷，貝爾德。

I only have one question, and it's about the guide, too. So I don't know, maybe just for you Todd. If I look at the extra (inaudible) here, $7.69, really a good fourth quarter. If we annualize that, we end up with something just under $31 of EPS. And what's interesting in my observation here is that, going back over the past decade, you're able to do that or better. So you're able to do better than your annualized exit run rate. On every single year with the exception of fiscal '21, when you had to deal with COVID. So I guess my question to you is, why this year, fiscal '26 be any different than the norm?

我只有一個問題，也是關於指南的。所以我不知道，也許只是對你來說，托德。如果我看這裡的額外（聽不清楚），7.69 美元，那確實是一個不錯的第四季度。如果我們將其按年計算，最終每股收益將略低於 31 美元。我在這裡的觀察很有趣，回顧過去十年，你能夠做到這一點，甚至做得更好。因此，您可以獲得比年度退出運行率更好的成績。除了 21 財年必須應對 COVID 之外，每年都是如此。所以我想我的問題是，為什麼今年，也就是 26 財年，跟往常有什麼不同？

Mig, this is Todd. Yes, we would love to take Q4 and annualize that. The math on that looks great. The reality is that's not the way the business operates, right? If you look back over decades, our sales mix is 48% first half, 52% second half. Obviously, that 52% is fully weighted by that strong Q4 result.

米格，這是托德。是的，我們希望將第四季的數據年度化。這方面的數學看起來很棒。但事實是，企業的運作方式並非如此，對嗎？如果回顧過去幾十年，我們的銷售結構是上半年佔 48%，下半年佔 52%。顯然，52% 的增幅完全受到第四季強勁業績的影響。

We also have those things that we talked about that we recognized early in the fiscal year as far as compensation and whatnot goes. I feel really good about what we're guiding here for Q1. Jenny mentioned this, we still expect the industrial businesses to be challenged from the top line. Aerospace is performing extremely well.

我們也討論了在財政年度初期就已確認的與薪酬等有關的問題。我對我們第一季的指導感到非常滿意。珍妮提到了這一點，我們仍然預期工業企業將面臨來自營收的挑戰。航空航太產業表現極為出色。

We are calling for roughly 5% EPS growth year-over-year in Q1. And I think the team is really focused on it. You got to remember, every number that we put up in Q4 was an all-time record. And when you look at what we are guiding here for Q1, every one of these numbers will be a Q1 record.

我們預計第一季每股收益將年增約 5%。我認為團隊確實非常關注這一點。你必須記住，我們在第四季取得的每一個數字都是歷史最高紀錄。當您查看我們針對第一季的指導時，您會發現這些數字中的每一個都將成為第一季的記錄。

So there is improvement across every one of the businesses, and that's with not a lot of help from the top line. So I think the team is executing unbelievably well, and I'd be really happy if they're able to post these numbers.

因此，每項業務都有所改善，但這並沒有得到太多營業收入的幫助。所以我認為該團隊的表現非常好，如果他們能夠公佈這些數字我會非常高興。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬·奧迪亞。

Can you talk about the sort of complexion of, call it, 8% organic aero growth over the course of the year? And how that shifts between commercial OE and aftermarket? And really getting at kind of the margin mix considerations within that, I think for a while now, that's been a focus topic clearly, with Aero margins up again this year. That's pretty good.

您能否談談今年 8% 的有機航空成長率的具體情況？那麼商業 OE 與售後市場之間如何轉變呢？而真正考慮到其中的利潤組合，我認為一段時間以來，這顯然是一個焦點話題，而今年 Aero 的利潤率又上升了。那非常好。

And maybe I'll weave into the question, just any color on Meggitt synergy contributions for the year?

也許我會把這個問題融入進去，對今年的 Meggitt 綜效貢獻有什麼看法？

Well, first of all, we don't go into that much detail and disclose all that mix within the year. I would tell you, as I said with my slides earlier, we ended the year at 51% aftermarket, 49% OEM. We're showing OEM to be low double digit this year and aftermarket to be high single digits. But we, again, have confidence in continuing to expand our margins. So we think that what we have here for the aerospace guide at 8% for the whole year is appropriate for what we see now.

嗯，首先，我們不會講那麼多細節，也不會透露一年內的所有這些內容。我想告訴你，正如我之前在幻燈片中所說的那樣，我們今年的售後市場佔有率為 51%，原始設備製造商佔有率為 49%。我們預計今年 OEM 的成長率將達到兩位數的低位，而售後市場的成長率將達到個位數的高點。但我們再次有信心繼續擴大我們的利潤率。因此，我們認為，我們在這裡給出的全年航空航太業 8% 的成長指引，對於我們目前看到的情況來說是合適的。

Joe, I would just add to that. In respect to the synergies, you had a question about synergies for Meggitt. We still believe there's $50 million of synergies left to achieve on Meggitt. We would expect that to be ramped throughout the year, just like we've seen it for the last three years. So all is going unbelievably well with Meggitt, and that's in the mix as well.

喬，我只想補充一點。關於協同效應，您對 Meggitt 的協同效應有一個疑問。我們仍然相信，Meggitt 仍有 5,000 萬美元的協同效應可實現。我們預計這一數字將在全年不斷上升，就像過去三年所看到的那樣。所以，Meggitt 的一切都進展得異常順利，這也是其中的原因之一。

And then just -- and I think that the sentiment from North America distributor partners has been a little bit better over the last few quarters. Anything that you're observing in terms of kind of developments there, getting areas where it's a little bit better.

然後——我認為過去幾季北美經銷商合作夥伴的情緒有所改善。就那裡的發展而言，您所觀察到的任何情況，都表明有些領域的情況有所改善。

But then in particular, what you think the gating factor is to seeing, quoting really accelerate into orders and the degree to which that's tariffs or it's other factors?

但具體來說，您認為影響報價真正加速轉化為訂單的因素是什麼，以及關稅或其他因素的程度如何？

Yes. So I mentioned that I had been on some distributor visits recently. And again, it's a common theme. Quoting activity is high. No project cancellations, delays. But then there's other pockets where some of them are participating in some retooling in automotive and just some refurbishments that are happening. So you hear about those pockets of where they're really having some wins. So I think they were overall very bullish on the future. That's what we continue to hear.

是的。所以我提到我最近去拜訪了一些經銷商。再次強調，這是一個常見的主題。引用活動很高。沒有項目取消或延遲。但也有其他一些領域，其中一些正在參與汽車行業的改造和正在進行的翻新。所以你聽到了他們確實取得了一些勝利。所以我認為他們總體上對未來非常樂觀。這就是我們不斷聽到的。

And the second part of your question again, sorry.

再次詢問您問題的第二部分，抱歉。

It was just what gets some of the (multiple speakers) ends on quoting to orders?

這只是讓一些（多位發言者）最終引用訂單的原因嗎？

Yes. I think one of the things -- a couple of things, I think it's uncertainty, right, on tariffs and interest rates, right? I think those two things are what may be holding up projects, holding up purchasing decisions. But as I mentioned before, distribution is bullish. We're ready, and it's time for an industrial return.

是的。我認為其中一件事——幾件事，我認為是關稅和利率的不確定性，對吧？我認為這兩件事可能會阻礙專案、阻礙購買決策。但正如我之前提到的，分銷是看漲的。我們已經做好準備，現在是工業回歸的時候了。

Bo, I think we've got time for one more. Can we take one more question here.

博，我想我們還有時間再說一次。我們可以在這裡再回答一個問題嗎？

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究公司的奈傑爾·科伊。

Jenny, I agree, it is time for this recovery. Bring it on. So I just want to dig into the free cash flow. So Todd, you mentioned CapEx 2.5%. That's about $0.5 billion of CapEx. So that's about $100 million higher, and not a big deal.

珍妮，我同意，現在是恢復的時候了。來吧。所以我只想深入研究自由現金流。托德，你提到了資本支出 2.5%。這相當於約 5 億美元的資本支出。所以這大約高出了 1 億美元，但沒什麼大不了的。

But I'm just wondering, do you think that's sort of medium-term shift in CapEx? And the reason I am asking is because we have heard this from some others. I'm curious if you're sort of reinvesting in the US and if that's what's driving it? Maybe just put a final point as well on the cash restructuring you expect for FY26?

但我只是想知道，您是否認為這是資本支出的中期轉變？我之所以問這個問題是因為我們從其他人那裡聽說過這個。我很好奇您是否在美國進行再投資，以及這是否是推動其發展的因素？也許您還想對 26 財年的現金重組做出最後的說明？

Yes. I think the CapEx, I don't -- I can't say that that's going to be a go-forward rate. We do have a few projects this year that we're investing in. Most of those are in North America, and the North American region. But I think that's more of a one-off type of thing versus a run rate going forward.

是的。我認為資本支出，我不能說這將是一個前進的速度。我們今年確實投資了一些項目。其中大部分位於北美和北美地區。但我認為這更像是一次性的事情，而不是未來的運行率。

On restructuring, we did about $50 million in '25. Right now, we're forecasting about $70 million in '26. So it's $20 million more. But again, really, I don't want you to read too much into this. This is just working capital investments for growth. This is making sure we integrate Curtis according to our schedule, and obviously paying all those fees with it. And making sure that we continue our multi-decade year of free cash flow conversion.

在重組方面，我們在 25 年投入了約 5,000 萬美元。目前，我們預測 26 年的收入約為 7,000 萬美元。所以還要多花2000萬美元。但說實話，我不希望你對此有太多的解讀。這只是用於成長的營運資本投資。這是為了確保我們按照計劃整合 Curtis，並且顯然用它來支付所有費用。並確保我們繼續數十年的自由現金流轉換。

Great. And then just a quick one on the profile of the industrial recovery you're seeing in FY26. It seems like you've done in flat to maybe slightly down in the first half of the year and then obviously 2%, 3% in the back half. Would that be directionally consistent?

偉大的。然後，我們來簡單介紹一下 2026 財年的工業復甦概況。看起來，上半年的業績持平甚至略有下降，而下半年則明顯上升了 2% 或 3%。這在方向上是否一致？

That is exactly what we have, roughly flat first half to second half. That's total industrial.

這正是我們所擁有的，上半年與下半年基本持平。這完全是工業化的。

Okay. That concludes our FY25 earnings release webcast. We appreciate your time and attention, and thanks again for joining us today. Our IR team will be available. That's Jeff Miller, [Jenna Stuckey and Chantelle O'Kelly]. If there's any need for any follow-ups or clarifications. And thank you all again. Have a fantastic day.

好的。這就是我們 25 財年收益發佈網路直播的全部內容。我們感謝您的時間和關注，並再次感謝您今天加入我們。我們的 IR 團隊將隨時為您服務。那是傑夫米勒，[詹娜·斯塔基和尚特爾·奧凱利]。如有任何後續事宜或澄清需求。再次感謝大家。祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you, Mr. Leombruno, and thank you, Ms. Parmentier. Again, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining Parker-Hannifin's Corporation's fiscal 2025 fourth quarter and full year earnings conference call and webcast. Again, that will conclude our call. Thank you all so much for joining us, and we wish you all a great day. Goodbye.

謝謝您，Leombruno 先生，也謝謝您，Parmentier 女士。女士們、先生們，再次感謝您參加派克漢尼汾公司 2025 財年第四季和全年收益電話會議和網路廣播。我們的通話到此結束。非常感謝大家的參與，並祝福大家有個愉快的一天。再見。