派克漢尼汾 (PH) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Fiscal 2025 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you. You may begin.

您好，歡迎參加派克漢尼汾 2025 財年第一季財報電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，財務長 Todd Leombruno。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Sachi, and welcome to Parker's Fiscal Year 2025 First Quarter Earnings Release Webcast. As Sachi said, this is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer speaking. Thank you to everyone for joining us this morning. With me today is Jenny Parmentier, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

謝謝您，Sachi，歡迎收看派克 2025 財年第一季財報發佈網路廣播。正如 Sachi 所說，我是財務長 Todd Leombruno。感謝大家今天早上加入我們。今天與我在一起的是董事長兼執行長珍妮‧帕門蒂爾 (Jenny Parmentier)。

We do truly appreciate your interest in Parker. On Slide 2, we address our disclosures on forward-looking projections and non-GAAP financial measures. Items listed here could cause actual results to vary from our forecast. Our press release, this presentation and those reconciliations for all non-GAAP measures were released this morning and are available on the Investors section on our website at parker.com.

我們非常感謝您對 Parker 的興趣。在投影片 2 中，我們討論了前瞻性預測和非公認會計原則財務指標的揭露。此處列出的項目可能會導致實際結果與我們的預測有所不同。我們的新聞稿、本簡報以及所有非 GAAP 指標的調節表已於今天上午發布，可在我們網站 parker.com 的投資者部分查看。

The agenda for today is Jenny is going to start with highlights for our record first quarter performance. She's also going to reinforce how our key market verticals are positioned for longer-term growth. I'm going to follow Jenny with a more detailed look at our strong first quarter results. And then we're going to address the changes to the fiscal year 2025 guidance that we released and increased this morning.

今天的議程是珍妮將從我們創紀錄的第一季業績的亮點開始。她還將強調我們的關鍵垂直市場如何定位以實現長期成長。我將跟隨珍妮更詳細地了解我們強勁的第一季業績。然後我們將討論我們今天早上發布並增加的 2025 財年指導方針的變化。

We'll then move to the Q&A session, and we're going to try to address as many questions as possible. And with all of that, Jenny, we'll begin with you on Slide 3.

然後我們將進入問答環節，我們將嘗試解決盡可能多的問題。珍妮，所有這些，我們將從幻燈片 3 開始。

Thank you, Todd, and thank you to everyone for attending the call today. We closed our first quarter of fiscal year '25 with our transformed portfolio driving record performance. We produced top quartile safety performance aligned with our goal to be the safest industrial company in the world. And once again, our balanced and diverse Aerospace Systems segment delivered exceptional performance.

謝謝托德，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們以轉型後的投資組合推動了創紀錄的業績，結束了 25 財年第一季。我們創造了最高四分之一的安全績效，這與我們成為世界上最安全的工業公司的目標是一致的。我們平衡且多元化的航空航天系統部門再次實現了卓越的業績。

We had record Q1 sales of $4.9 billion, organic growth of 1.4% and consistent execution of the Win Strategy delivered 80 basis points of margin expansion, resulting in 25.7% adjusted segment operating margin. Adjusted earnings per share grew 4% and cash flow from operations increased 14% to $744 million. Another quarter of impressive margin expansion. The team is off to a good start.

我們第一季的銷售額達到創紀錄的 49 億美元，有機成長 1.4%，並且持續執行致勝策略，使利潤率擴大了 80 個基點，調整後的部門營業利潤率為 25.7%。調整後每股盈餘成長 4%，營運現金流成長 14%，達到 7.44 億美元。又一個季度利潤率實現令人印象深刻的擴張。球隊有了一個好的開始。

Next slide, please. I want to spend a few minutes reminding everyone why we win. First, The Win Strategy is our business system. We have a decentralized operating structure, 85 divisions run by general managers with full P&L responsibility, all acting like owners, close to their customers and executing the Win strategy every day. We have innovative products that solve customer problems, 85% covered by intellectual property. Our application engineers provide the expertise that allows us to have a competitive advantage with our interconnected technologies that provide solutions for our customers.

請下一張投影片。我想花幾分鐘提醒大家我們為什麼要獲勝。首先，制勝策略是我們的業務體系。我們擁有分散的營運結構，85 個部門由總經理管理，全面負責損益，所有人都像所有者一樣行事，貼近客戶，每天執行雙贏策略。我們擁有解決客戶問題的創新產品，其中85%擁有智慧財產權。我們的應用工程師提供的專業知識使我們能夠透過為客戶提供解決方案的互連技術來獲得競爭優勢。

And finally, our distribution network, the envy of the competition and the best in the world. It took us over 60 years to build it, and it is truly an extension of our engineering teams, providing solutions to all of those small to midsized OEMs that are participating in the secular trends in mega CapEx projects. These partners are experts at applying our interconnected technology. Next slide, please. We have the number 1 position in the $145 billion motion and control industry, a growing space where we continue to gain share.

最後，我們的分銷網絡，令人羨慕的競爭和世界上最好的。我們花了 60 多年的時間來建造它，它確實是我們工程團隊的延伸，為所有參與大型資本支出專案長期趨勢的中小型 OEM 提供解決方案。這些合作夥伴是應用我們互聯技術的專家。請下一張投影片。我們在價值 1,450 億美元的運動與控制行業中排名第一，在這個不斷增長的領域，我們不斷獲得份額。

These 6 market verticals represent greater than 90% of the company's revenue. Our interconnected technologies cut across these market verticals and give us a clear competitive advantage. 2/3 of our revenue comes from customers who buy 4 or more technologies. And our growth is focused on faster growing, longer cycle markets and secular trends.

這 6 個垂直市場占公司收入的 90% 以上。我們的互聯技術跨越了這些垂直市場，為我們帶來了明顯的競爭優勢。我們2/3的收入來自購買4種或更多技術的客戶。我們的成長重點是成長更快、週期更長的市場和長期趨勢。

Next slide, please. Both a secular trend and our largest market vertical is Aerospace. Parker has a balanced and diverse portfolio with significant content on leading aerospace programs. We have a comprehensive product offering across our diversified customer base with proprietary design on premier programs. On the upper left-hand side of this page is our sales mix by application.

請下一張投影片。航空航太既是長期趨勢，也是我們最大的垂直市場。派克擁有平衡且多樣化的產品組合，其中包含領先航空航天計畫的重要內容。我們為多元化的客戶群提供全面的產品，並針對首要專案進行專有設計。此頁面的左上角是我們按應用程式劃分的銷售組合。

You see a nice balance of commercial and military as well as business jets, regional transport and helicopters. This diverse aerospace and defense exposure allows us to have multiple products and technologies on every major aircraft program globally, many of them seen on the bottom of this page. We have a balanced narrow-body/wide-body sales mix and the Meggitt acquisition significantly expanded our aftermarket sales. Today, aftermarket represents approximately 50% of our total Aerospace sales.

您將看到商業和軍事以及公務機、區域運輸和直升機的良好平衡。這種多樣化的航空航太和國防業務使我們能夠在全球每個主要飛機項目上擁有多種產品和技術，其中許多都可以在本頁底部看到。我們擁有均衡的窄體/寬體銷售組合，收購 Meggitt 顯著擴大了我們的售後市場銷售。如今，售後市場約占我們航空航太總銷售額的 50%。

All of this adds up to be a compelling value proposition for all of our Aerospace customers. Next slide, please. Our second largest market vertical is In-plant & Industrial Equipment. We have a comprehensive suite of critical motion and control technologies that enable manufacturing all around the world. As depicted on this slide, Parker provides solutions for both factory equipment and factory infrastructure.

所有這些加起來對我們所有的航空航天客戶來說都是一個令人信服的價值主張。請下一張投影片。我們的第二大垂直市場是廠內和工業設備。我們擁有一整套關鍵運動和控制技術，可支援世界各地的製造。如本投影片所示，派克為工廠設備和工廠基礎設施提供解決方案。

Next slide, please. Although we are experiencing some near-term pressure right now, this slide highlights how we are positioned for growth in the In-plant & Industrial market vertical. Mega CapEx projects, industrial CapEx investment and demand associated with semiconductor fabs and data centers, will continue to drive long-term growth. The chart at the bottom left shows the $1 trillion of mega projects that have been announced since 2021.

請下一張投影片。儘管我們目前面臨一些近期壓力，但這張投影片強調了我們如何定位在工廠內和工業市場垂直領域的成長。大型資本支出項目、工業資本支出投資以及與半導體工廠和資料中心相關的需求將繼續推動長期成長。左下角的圖表顯示了自 2021 年以來宣布的價值 1 兆美元的大型項目。

Our powerhouse of interconnected technologies and independent distribution network are differentiators that allow us to benefit throughout a project's life cycle as depicted in the sales mix chart on the bottom right. We win with new construction, new equipment and retooling and our aftermarket supports ongoing operations. I will now turn it over to Todd to go through the summary of our Q1 results.

我們強大的互聯技術和獨立的分銷網絡是我們的優勢所在，使我們能夠在專案的整個生命週期中受益，如右下角的銷售組合圖所示。我們透過新建築、新設備和改造贏得勝利，我們的售後市場支持持續營運。現在我將把它交給托德來總結我們第一季的結果。

Okay. Thanks, Jenny. As Jenny said, I'm on Slide 10. Our team set several records this quarter. Jenny called some of these out, but we set records for sales, adjusted segment operating margin, adjusted EBITDA margin and adjusted earnings per share. The sales of $4.9 billion was an increase of 1.2% versus prior.

好的。謝謝，珍妮。正如珍妮所說，我在幻燈片 10 上。我們的團隊本季創造了多項記錄。珍妮指出了其中一些問題，但我們創下了銷售額、調整後部門營業利潤率、調整後 EBITDA 利潤率和調整後每股收益的記錄。銷售額為 49 億美元，較之前成長 1.2%。

Virtually all of that was organic. Organic growth was positive at 1.4%. There is some slight divestiture activity there, unfavorable really just 0.2%, and in the quarter compared to prior year, currency was flat. Now we look at those segment, adjusted segment operating margins, we increased those 80 basis points. We're really proud of that on the 1.2% sales growth.

事實上所有這些都是有機的。有機成長為 1.4%。那裡有一些輕微的剝離活動，不利的實際上只有 0.2%，而且在本季度與去年同期相比，貨幣持平。現在我們來看看這些部門，調整後的部門營業利潤率，我們增加了 80 個基點。我們對 1.2% 的銷售額成長感到非常自豪。

EBITDA margins was a record at 24.9%. And net income ROS is 16.5% with earnings per share at $6.20. Those are both records as well. And both of those are an increase of 4% from prior. It was really a nice start to the fiscal year driven by consistent execution from our global team, really focused on continuing to take cost out and drive margin expansion.

EBITDA 利潤率為 24.9%，創歷史新高。淨利 ROS 為 16.5%，每股收益為 6.20 美元。這些也是記錄。這兩項都比之前增加了 4%。在我們全球團隊一致執行的推動下，這確實是本財年的一個好開端，真正專注於繼續降低成本並推動利潤率擴張。

If you look at Slide 11, this details the increase in adjusted EPS. Again, if you can see that far outstanding operating performance, along with some favorable interest expense really are the main drivers to the growth in EPS. Segment operating income dollars increased by $54 million in the quarter, that was $0.33 of the EPS growth, and that was really driven by strong Aerospace performance, really being the main driver on segment operating income. Interest expense is favorable, $0.13, and that really is driven through our continued execution on our debt reduction plan.

如果你看一下投影片 11，它詳細介紹了調整後每股盈餘的成長。再說一次，如果你能看到迄今為止出色的經營業績，再加上一些有利的利息支出，確實是每股收益成長的主要推動力。本季度分部營業收入增加了 5,400 萬美元，佔每股收益成長的 0.33 美元，這實際上是由強勁的航空航天業績推動的，這實際上是分部營業收入的主要驅動力。利息費用是有利的，為 0.13 美元，這實際上是透過我們繼續執行債務削減計劃來推動的。

And corporate G&A and income tax were also slightly favorable in the quarter. If you look at other expense, we did have a headwind of $0.26 in the quarter. This was related primarily to currency losses resulting from the remeasurement of intercompany loans and just some volatility on currency rates within the quarter. We do not expect that to continue for the remainder of the year.

本季企業管理費用和所得稅也略有優惠。如果你看看其他費用，我們在本季確實遇到了 0.26 美元的阻力。這主要與重新計量公司間貸款造成的貨幣損失以及本季貨幣匯率的一些波動有關。我們預計這種情況不會持續到今年剩餘時間。

And also, there is some slightly less favorable pension income compared to the prior year that shows up on the other line. And finally, share count was just $0.02 unfavorable. All in, the adjusted EPS of $6.20 already said, it's a record, but it was really driven by strong margin expansion across the company. If we go to Slide 12, looking at the segments, we're proud of that margin expansion.

此外，另一行顯示的退休金收入與前一年相比略有下降。最後，股票數量僅為 0.02 美元。總而言之，調整後每股收益為 6.20 美元，這已經創下了紀錄，但這實際上是由整個公司利潤率的強勁擴張所推動的。如果我們轉到投影片 12，查看各個細分市場，我們會為利潤率的擴張感到自豪。

We can't speak to it more enough. It's really just continued. The team continued to work on executing the Win Strategy. And I really do believe that our performance reflects how different a company Parker is today.

我們對此無法說得更多。真的只是繼續而已。該團隊繼續致力於執行獲勝戰略。我確實相信我們的業績反映了 Parker 公司如今的與眾不同。

And in spite of the low organic growth, we still generated 80 basis points of higher segment operating margins. Incremental is unbelievably solid at 95% and orders remain positive at plus 1%, and that's really driven by continued Aerospace strength. If we look at the Diversified Industrial North American businesses, sales were $2.1 billion, organic growth was negative 5%. That was lower than what our expectations were going into the quarter.

儘管有機成長較低，但我們的部門營運利潤率仍提高了 80 個基點。增量令人難以置信地穩定在 95%，訂單仍然保持正值，成長了 1%，這實際上是由持續的航空航太實力推動的。如果我們看看多元化工業北美業務，銷售額為 21 億美元，有機成長為負 5%。這低於我們對本季的預期。

We are seeing delays and some near-term pressure in the energy and In-plant & Industrial Equipment verticals, Jenny mentioned some of those. Transportation and off-highway verticals continue to be soft. But on a positive note, HVAC did return to growth in the quarter. So we're happy about that. Even with that organic pressure, adjusted margins in North America increased 40 basis points to a record of 25.3%, and it's really just great teamwork, resilience and operating execution.

珍妮提到了其中一些問題，我們看到能源和廠內及工業設備垂直領域出現了延誤和一些近期壓力。交通運輸和非公路垂直行業持續疲軟。但從積極的方面來看，暖通空調在本季確實恢復了成長。所以我們對此感到高興。即使面臨這種有機壓力，北美的調整後利潤率仍成長了 40 個基點，達到創紀錄的 25.3%，這確實需要出色的團隊合作、韌性和營運執行力。

North American orders did take a step back. They were negative 3% in the quarter, and we made sure that our guide reflects that pressure. Moving on to the international businesses. Sales were $1.4 billion. Organic growth was negative 2%, but that's kind of as we expected. So that's right in line with our guide. Organic growth in Asia Pacific improved to 3.2%; Latin America really positive at plus 14% but that was offset by a negative 8% in EMEA.

北美訂單確實有所後退。該季度的成長率為負 3%，我們確保我們的指南反映了這種壓力。轉向國際業務。銷售額為 14 億美元。有機增長為負 2%，但這在我們的預期之內。這與我們的指南相符。亞太地區有機成長提高至 3.2%；拉丁美洲確實成長了 14%，但被歐洲、中東和非洲地區的負成長 8% 所抵銷。

Really proud of the team. Operating margins matched a record high of 24.1%, so even on that negative growth in the international businesses, or matched a record high of 24.1%. The international team is really focused on productivity improvements, cost controls and really performing well in a tough environment. On a good note, order rates did move to plus 1% with Asia moving into positive territory driving that improved.

真的為團隊感到自豪。營業利潤率達到了 24.1% 的歷史新高，因此即使國際業務出現負成長，也達到了 24.1% 的歷史新高。國際團隊真正專注於生產力的提升、成本控制以及在艱難的環境中真正表現出色。好的方面是，訂單率確實上升了 1%，亞洲進入積極區域，推動了訂單率的改善。

If we look at Aerospace Systems, the Aerospace Systems segment continues to lead the way for the company. Again, it delivered an exceptional quarter. Sales were $1.4 billion. That's 18% greater than prior year. All of that is organic, roughly 17% of that growth was organic, and that was driven by double-digit growth in commercial and defense markets.

如果我們看看航空航天系統，就會發現航空航天系統部門繼續引領公司發展。該季度再次表現出色。銷售額為 14 億美元。比去年增加了 18%。所有這些都是有機成長，其中約 17% 是有機成長，這是由商業和國防市場兩位數成長推動的。

And of course, the adjusted segment operating margin of 27.9% is a record. That's up 190 basis points over the prior year. All that performance was driven by record topline sales, strong aftermarket mix, as Jenny mentioned, and continued implementation and integration of the Meggitt businesses.

當然，調整後的分部營業利益率為 27.9%，創歷史新高。這比上年增長了 190 個基點。正如 Jenny 所提到的，所有這些業績都是由創紀錄的營收、強大的售後市場組合以及 Meggitt 業務的持續實施和整合所推動的。

So great work there by our Aerospace team. Aerospace order rates continue to be positive at plus 7%. And I just want to remind everyone that we are lapping some very tough comparisons on those, but we're happy that it's plus 7%. If I could draw your attention to Slide 13. Cash flow performance for the quarter is also a record.

我們的航空航天團隊的工作非常出色。航空航太訂單率持續保持正值，成長 7%。我只是想提醒大家，我們正在對這些進行一些非常嚴格的比較，但我們很高興它增加了 7%。我可以請您注意幻燈片 13。該季度的現金流表現也創歷史新高。

CFOA was $744 million or 15.2%, that is an increase of 14% versus prior year. Free cash flow increased 17% and finished at $649 million. That is 13.2% of sales. And conversion was strong to start the year at 93%. Within the quarter, we further reduced debt by $370 million and that drove our net debt to adjusted EBITDA to now 1.9 times.

CFOA 為 7.44 億美元，即 15.2%，比上年增長 14%。自由現金流成長 17%，達到 6.49 億美元。即銷售額的 13.2%。年初的轉換率高達 93%。在本季內，我們進一步減少了 3.7 億美元的債務，這使得我們的淨債務調整後 EBITDA 達到目前的 1.9 倍。

So we're happy about that. And I'm really proud of the team, the way we started the year on cash flow as a much better start than the prior year, and that's due to a lot of hard work by everyone around the world. So that is a wrap on Q1, and we'll move to the outlook now. And Jenny, I'm going to hand it back to you for some comments.

所以我們對此感到高興。我真的為我們的團隊感到自豪，我們今年的現金流開局比前一年好得多，這要歸功於世界各地每個人的辛勤工作。第一季的情況就這樣結束了，現在我們將展望展望。珍妮，我將把它還給你，徵求你的意見。

Thanks, Todd. So as we've already alluded to, we've made some changes and updated our FY '25 organic sales growth forecast for each of these market verticals, we wanted to share this with you today. So we are raising Aerospace and Defense on aftermarket strength. We're now forecasting 10% organic growth at the midpoint versus 8.5% in our initial guide.

謝謝，托德。正如我們已經提到的，我們已經做出了一些改變，並更新了每個垂直市場的 25 財年有機銷售成長預測，我們今天想與您分享。因此，我們正在提高航空航太和國防領域的售後市場實力。我們現在預測中點有機成長率為 10%，而我們最初的指南中預測為 8.5%。

Over the last 90 days, macro conditions affecting our industrial market verticals have softened as I previously mentioned, so we expect a delayed gradual recovery on easing comps as we move through the balance of our fiscal year. For In-plant Industrial, so a slight reduction to our low single-digit growth outlook for the year. We're seeing some near-term delays in projects and capital spending, but I will tell you, we are pleased that the channel sentiment does remain positive. On transportation, we are maintaining our low single-digit outlook.

正如我之前提到的，在過去 90 天裡，影響我們工業市場垂直領域的宏觀條件已經軟化，因此我們預計，隨著本財年的剩餘時間，寬鬆的經濟狀況將逐步復甦。對於廠內工業，我們將今年的低個位數成長前景略微下調。我們看到專案和資本支出近期出現一些延誤，但我會告訴你，我們很高興通路情緒仍然保持正面。在交通運輸方面，我們維持較低的個位數前景。

So while the automotive production forecast remains lower, heavy-duty and work truck demand remains positive. We are now expecting high single-digit decline for off-highway. OEM destocking is continuing and we are seeing customers continue to reduce production levels, including instances of planned shutdowns. The energy market has also been impacted by uncertainty and delays and we are updating our forecast to neutral.

因此，儘管汽車產量預測仍然較低，但重型和工作卡車的需求仍然樂觀。我們現在預計非公路公路將出現高個位數的下降。OEM 去庫存仍在繼續，我們看到客戶繼續降低生產水平，包括計劃停產的情況。能源市場也受到不確定性和延遲的影響，我們正在將預測更新為中性。

We are maintaining our HVAC refrigeration outlook of low single-digit growth as the regulatory changes are driving growth on the HV side of the business, and Todd already mentioned this. So guidance now reflects divestiture activity expected to close in the second quarter. Divestitures represent a 1.5% reduction to fiscal year '25 reported sales versus prior year. This now results in an overall organic growth of 1.5% to 4.5%.

我們維持 HVAC 製冷低個位數成長的前景，因為監管變化正在推動 HV 業務的成長，托德已經提到過這一點。因此，現在的指導反映了預計將在第二季結束的剝離活動。資產剝離意味著 25 財年報告的銷售額與前一年相比減少了 1.5%。目前，整體有機成長為 1.5% 至 4.5%。

With our transformed portfolio, we remain confident in growing EPS and continuing our track record of expanding margins. I'll give it back to Todd to review the guide in a little more detail.

透過我們的投資組合轉型，我們對每股盈餘的成長和繼續擴大利潤率的記錄仍然充滿信心。我會將其返還給托德，以更詳細地查看該指南。

Okay. Thanks, Jenny. I'm on Slide 16 with some more detail, and I'll try to not repeat what Jenny said, but reported sales growth for the year is now forecasted to be in the range of 1.5% to 3.5%. And that's 2% at the midpoint. The dollars work out to be $20.3 billion. Currency, we now expect that to be slightly favorable of 0.5%, and as Jenny mentioned, the divestitures that we expect to close in the second quarter will be a 1.5% headwind. 100% of those divestiture sales will come out of the Diversified Industrial segment in the North American businesses.

好的。謝謝，珍妮。我在幻燈片 16 上提供了更多詳細信息，我將盡量不重複 Jenny 所說的話，但報告的今年銷售增長目前預計在 1.5% 至 3.5% 範圍內。中間值為 2%。計算結果為 203 億美元。在貨幣方面，我們現在預計會稍微有利 0.5%，正如 Jenny 所提到的，我們預計在第二季完成的資產剝離將是 1.5% 的逆風。這些剝離銷售額的 100% 將來自北美業務的多元化工業部門。

Organic growth in total is forecasted to be 3% at the midpoint. This is really driven by strong performance in Aerospace. We expect that to continue and adjusted segment operating margin guidance is raised by 30 basis points for the full year to 25.7%. That now will be a margin expansion of 80 basis points versus prior year.

預計整體有機成長中點為 3%。這其實是由航空航太領域的強勁表現所推動的。我們預計全年調整後的分部營業利益率指引將持續調高 30 個基點至 25.7%。與去年相比，現在的利潤率將擴大 80 個基點。

So we're happy to see that. Incremental margins, we expect to be 70%, that is really based on incorporating the Q1 performance into the full year guide and also the anticipated divestiture activity. Corporate G&A is expected to be slightly lower now at $215 million, and other expense is expected to be $70 million on an as-reported basis or $80 million on an adjusted basis, really reflecting that activity from Q1. Interest expense, we are now forecasting that lower. We're expecting it to be $450 million, that really is driven by using the anticipated proceeds on the divestiture activity to further reduce our debt.

所以我們很高興看到這一點。我們預計增量利潤率為 70%，這實際上是基於將第一季業績納入全年指南以及預期的剝離活動。目前，該公司 G&A 預計略低至 2.15 億美元，其他費用預計為報告基礎上的 7000 萬美元或調整後的 8000 萬美元，真正反映了第一季的活動。利息支出，我們現在預測會更低。我們預計該金額為 4.5 億美元，這實際上是透過利用剝離活動的預期收益進一步減少我們的債務來推動的。

The full tax year or full year tax rate, we expect to be 22.5%, that really is also incorporating the results of Q1. We are modeling Q2 through Q4 at 23%. And finally, full year as reported EPS is now $23.13 and adjusted EPS is $26.70, both of those at the midpoint with a range of plus or minus $0.35 on the either side. Adjusted EPS is split 46% first half, 54% second half and we do remain committed to our free cash flow forecast of a range of $3 billion to $3.3 billion for the year.

我們預計整個納稅年度或全年稅率為 22.5%，這實際上也包含了第一季的結果。我們對第二季到第四季的建模率為 23%。最後，全年報告每股收益現為 23.13 美元，調整後每股收益為 26.70 美元，兩者均處於中點，兩側的範圍為正負 0.35 美元。調整後每股盈餘上半年分配 46%，下半年分配 54%，我們仍致力於今年 30 億至 33 億美元的自由現金流預測。

Looking specifically at the second quarter, Jenny mentioned some of those near-term pressures. Reported sales are expected to be $4.8 billion with organic growth of 1%. Adjusted segment operating margins, we are forecasting to be 25.2% and adjusted EPS is now expected to be $6.15. And what we have done is, as usual, we've provided some more specifics in the appendix, if anyone is interested in those.

具體到第二季度，珍妮提到了一些近期壓力。報告銷售額預估為 48 億美元，有機成長 1%。調整後的分部營業利潤率預計為 25.2%，調整後每股收益現預估為 6.15 美元。我們所做的是，像往常一樣，我們在附錄中提供了更多細節，如果有人對此感興趣的話。

If I could draw your attention to Slide 17, we provided a bridge on the major components to our increase in the FY '25 guidance. Adjusted EPS moves to $26.70 per share. That was compared to our previous guidance of $26.65. You can see we exceeded our guidance by $0.15 in the first quarter. We have included that in the full year guide. The divestiture activity does net out to be $0.15 unfavorable.

如果我可以請您注意投影片 17，我們為增加 25 財年指導的主要組成部分提供了一個橋樑。調整後每股收益升至 26.70 美元。相比之下，我們之前的指導價為 26.65 美元。您可以看到我們第一季超出了指導價值 0.15 美元。我們已將其納入全年指南中。剝離活動的淨損失為 0.15 美元。

I do note that that is margin accretive. It's just slightly unfavorable $0.15. That is component of $0.25 less segment operating income, but $0.10 less interest expense. That nets out to $0.15. We are confident, as Jenny said, in our ability to continue to drive margin expansion.

我確實注意到，這是利潤增值的。只是稍微不利 0.15 美元。這相當於部門營業收入減去 0.25 美元，但利息支出減去 0.10 美元。淨值為 0.15 美元。正如珍妮所說，我們對繼續推動利潤率擴張的能力充滿信心。

And we are raising the remaining forecast of period by an additional $0.05 for the fiscal year, and that's how we get back to the $26.70. So that is the walk, and Jenny, I will hand it back to you for closing comments.

我們將本財年的剩餘期間預測額外提高 0.05 美元，這樣我們就回到了 26.70 美元。這就是步行，珍妮，我會將其交還給您以供結束評論。

Thank you, Todd. ust a reminder on what drives Parker. Safety, engagement and ownership are the foundation of our culture. It's our people and living up to our purpose that drives top quartile performance that allows us to be great generators and deployers of cash.

謝謝你，托德。我們提醒一下帕克的動力是什麼。安全、參與和主人翁意識是我們文化的基礎。正是我們的員工和對我們目標的實踐推動了最高四分之一的業績，使我們能夠成為偉大的現金創造者和部署者。

Okay. Sachi, we are ready to start the Q&A portion. I will hand the call back to you.

好的。Sachi，我們準備開始問答部分。我會將電話轉回給您。

(perator Instructions) Jamie Cook,Truist Securities.

（操作員指示）傑米·庫克（Jamie Cook），Truist 證券公司。

Congrats on a nice quarter. I guess, first question, just on the implied incremental margins for the year, Todd, 70%, up from, I think, 40% before. How much is the divestiture just because the implied incremental margins in the back half of the year on the core business also seemed to be pretty good. So just wondering, is it structural, is it price, what's going on there?

恭喜您度過了一個美好的季度。我想，第一個問題，托德今年隱含的增量利潤率為 70%，我認為之前是 40%。剝離多少錢只是因為下半年核心業務的隱含增量利潤似乎也相當不錯。所以只是想知道，它是結構性的，還是價格性的，那裡發生了什麼事？

And then I guess my second -- my second question on the international orders, you talked about Asia turning positive and sales turning positive. How big is that as a percentage of your business? And just any color on which markets or the order growth that you're seeing in Asia?

然後我想我的第二個問題——關於國際訂單的第二個問題，你談到亞洲轉好，銷售轉好。它佔您業務的比例有多大？您在亞洲看到的市場或訂單成長有什麼顏色嗎？

Jamie, I'll start with the question on the incrementals and then maybe I'll hand it to Jenny for the market commentary. Really, the Q1 performance, if you look at our Q1 performance, it was 95%. That's really probably the main driver of the performance there. The divestiture is a little bit of it. But if you look at the out quarters, we're expecting to be well above our stated 30% target.

傑米，我將從增量問題開始，然後也許我會將其交給珍妮進行市場評論。確實，第一季的表現，如果你看看我們第一季的表現，它是 95%。這確實可能是那裡表現的主要驅動力。剝離只是其中的一小部分。但如果你看看未來幾個季度，我們預計會遠高於我們既定的 30% 目標。

A lot of that is driven by the Aerospace activity. They've got great growth and nice margin expansion. And I would tell you, the industrial businesses are doing a great job controlling costs and doing what's necessary in a low growth environment. And that's really how the math is working out on the incrementals.

其中很大一部分是由航空航天活動所驅動的。他們有巨大的成長和良好的利潤擴張。我想告訴你，工業企業在控製成本方面做得很好，並在低成長環境中做了必要的事情。這就是增量的數學計算方式。

Okay. So Jamie, Asia Pacific represents approximately 11% of our total sales, and it's approximately 40% of our total international sales. So as Todd mentioned, Asia Pacific Q1 growth came in a little higher than we thought, came in at 3%. Orders do continue to trend positive across the region. That's what we saw in Q1, but the comp was easier on the growth, and I would say that we're seeing some pickup in transportation and semicon markets. Seeing some nice robust growth momentum in India and Southeast Asia and China's growth was negative low single digits.

好的。Jamie，亞太地區約占我們總銷售額的 11%，約占我們國際總銷售額的 40%。正如托德所提到的，亞太地區第一季的成長略高於我們的預期，為 3%。該地區的訂單確實繼續呈積極趨勢。這就是我們在第一季看到的情況，但成長比較容易，我想說我們看到運輸和半導體市場回升。印度和東南亞出現了強勁的成長勢頭，而中國的成長卻是負的低個位數。

David Raso, Evercore ISI

大衛·拉索，Evercore ISI

North America, you raised the margins 50 bps, but lowered the organic sales, and the buckets are, right, the divestiture you're seeing is helpful to margins. The weakness is more OE business, it sounds like, if I'm reading that correctly, kind of factory floor CapEx and some of the big OEs taking their production down. The distribution piece, I assume, right, you didn't comment on it. Can you help us understand where that channel is?

北美，您將利潤率提高了 50 個基點，但降低了有機銷售額，而您所看到的資產剝離對利潤率有所幫助。弱點在於更多的原始設備業務，如果我沒理解錯的話，聽起來好像是工廠車間的資本支出和一些大型原始設備生產的減少。發行部分，我想，對吧，你沒有對此發表評論。您能幫助我們了解頻道在哪裡嗎？

I just want to make sure that over 40% of earnings the distribution business, if that cracks, that's a different level of concern around the margins. So can you help us on that channel? And again, anything you can help us with on the margin resiliency the rest of the year for North America?

我只是想確保超過 40% 的收入來自分銷業務，如果這種情況出現問題，那就是對利潤率的不同程度的擔憂。那麼您能在該頻道上幫助我們嗎？再說一遍，您可以在今年剩餘時間北美的邊際彈性方面為我們提供什麼幫助嗎？

Yes. So David, you are correct that the destocking comments are about what's happening at the OEM level, and we're just seeing lower production rates and some additional shutdowns, longer shutdowns around the holidays. So when we're talking about the channel, the destocking in the channel, as you know, started over a year ago. And I mentioned last quarter and I would say the same thing that we're not seeing restocking just yet.

是的。所以大衛，你是對的，去庫存的評論是關於 OEM 層面發生的事情，我們只是看到生產率下降和一些額外的停工，假期前後停工時間更長。因此，當我們談論渠道時，正如您所知，渠道的去庫存始於一年多前。我提到上個季度，我想說同樣的話，我們還沒看到補貨。

The sentiment, I will tell you, is very positive. Just within the last month, I've spent some time with two of our largest distributors, and they are commenting on a lot of quote activity. They're just saying that they're experiencing delays. There's just project delays out there.

我會告訴你，這種情緒是非常正面的。就在上個月，我與我們最大的兩家分銷商待了一段時間，他們對許多報價活動發表了評論。他們只是說他們遇到了延誤。只是專案延遲了。

So I would say that they're still managing their inventory tightly and not doing any stocking orders yet. And I would say to a certain extent, some improved lead times have allowed them to operate with a little less product than they have in the past. But again, very, very positive sentiment still coming from them.

所以我想說他們仍在嚴格管理庫存，並且尚未執行任何庫存訂單。我想說，在某種程度上，交貨時間的改善使他們能夠使用比過去少一點的產品來運作。但同樣，他們仍然發出非常非常正面的情緒。

That's helpful. And can I just follow up with M&A. Can you give us an update on what the lay of the land is, the pipeline?

這很有幫助。我可以跟進併購嗎？能為我們介紹一下管道的最新情況嗎？

Sure. So first of all, I would say we are very committed to actively deploying our capital. And as I've mentioned before, the acquisition pipeline is active with targets of all sizes. We don't feel obligated to make a deal just because leverage is less than 2 times, as Todd just talked about, it has to be the right deal. We're looking to acquire companies where we are the clear best owner with interconnected technologies, building on those secular trends and mega CapEx projects.

當然。首先，我想說，我們非常致力於積極部署我們的資本。正如我之前提到的，收購管道對於各種規模的目標都是活躍的。我們不會因為槓桿率低於2倍就覺得有義務進行交易，正如托德剛才談到的，它必須是正確的交易。我們正在尋求收購那些我們顯然是擁有互聯技術的最佳所有者的公司，以這些長期趨勢和大型資本支出項目為基礎。

And we're looking for deals that are accretive to growth, they're resilient, they're accretive to margins, cash flow and EPS. So I made the comment in the past too, we like all of our technologies and the pipeline is active.

我們正在尋找能夠促進成長、具有彈性、能夠增加利潤、現金流和每股盈餘的交易。所以我過去也發表過評論，我們喜歡我們所有的技術，而且管道很活躍。

I'm sorry to follow up with them. Yes, I'm just curious about the multiples out there versus the target. I'm just trying to get a sense of I know the strategy, but just any pulse of the candidates are out there now it's more a matter of price or people sort of holding on, waiting for elections, Fed easing cycles to agree on a price. Just curious more of the kind of conversations out there.

我很抱歉跟進他們。是的，我只是對目標的倍數感到好奇。我只是想了解我知道這個策略，但現在候選人的任何脈搏都在那裡，這更多是價格問題或人們堅持等待選舉、美聯儲寬鬆週期以達成一致的問題價格。只是對外面的對話感到好奇。

Yes. A lot of it, I would have to say is timing. Timing is a big factor.

是的。我必須說，很多都是時間問題。時機是重要因素。

I'm sorry, Todd, please?

對不起，托德，可以嗎？

But that was Jenny, David, she just said it's really timing. It's not really an issue of anything other than just the normal activity of transaction process is I would say. The one thing I did want to follow up on, David, was your question on the margin, your math as usual is correct. The total company, the favorable impact of the divestiture is about 20 basis points.

但那是珍妮，大衛，她只是說現在正是時候。我想說，除了交易過程的正常活動之外，這實際上並不是任何問題。大衛，我確實想跟進的一件事是你的問題，你的數學像往常一樣是正確的。整個公司，剝離的有利影響約為20個基點。

I mentioned earlier that that's 100% coming out of the Diversified Industrial North American businesses. It's about 40 basis points of favorable impact to that piece of the business.

我之前提到過，這 100% 來自北美多元化工業企業。這對該業務的有利影響約為 40 個基點。

That's helpful. Okay. So basically, North America margin, the improvement is principally all from the divestiture but you were still able to keep the core margin, maybe even at 10 bps despite lowering the organic sales, and that's probably a bit.

這很有幫助。好的。所以基本上，北美利潤率的改善主要來自於剝離，但你仍然能夠保持核心利潤率，甚至可能在 10 個基點，儘管有機銷售額降低了，這可能是一點點。

Correct.

正確的。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

This is Matt Laflash on for Julian Mitchell. My question today is sort of around that $0.15 divestment headwind. Wondering if you could maybe break down how that affects each quarter throughout the rest of the year? Should we kind of assume maybe $0.05 spread out across each quarter? Just how should we be thinking about that?

我是 Matt Laflash 替朱利安米切爾 (Julian Mitchell) 演講。我今天的問題與 0.15 美元的撤資逆風有關。想知道您是否可以詳細分析這對今年剩餘時間每季的影響？我們是否應該假設每季的支出可能為 0.05 美元？我們該如何思考這個問題呢？

Yes. I can answer that, Matt, for you. We're expecting that to happen sometime in the second quarter. So there's a slight impact in the second quarter, but it bleeds out into the second half of the year.

是的。馬特，我可以為你回答這個問題。我們預計這將在第二季的某個時候發生。因此，第二季會受到輕微影響，但會持續到下半年。

If you look at the $0.15, it's about $0.01 in Q2. It goes to $0.05 in Q3, and then it's about $0.08 in Q4.

如果你看看 0.15 美元，那麼第二季大約是 0.01 美元。第三季達到 0.05 美元，第四季約為 0.08 美元。

Got it. Todd, that's helpful. And just a quick follow-up. If you could maybe dive a little bit deeper into the maybe Q2 segment and below-the-line assumptions for that $6.15 EPS guide for the second quarter?

知道了。托德，這很有幫助。只是快速跟進。您是否可以更深入地了解第二季的細分市場以及第二季每股收益 6.15 美元的線下假設？

Yes. I would say there's nothing unusual there. We did have that one currency issue in Q1. We do not expect that to repeat. So I would tell you, both for corporate G&A and other, we are forecasting a pretty normal Q2 through Q4.

是的。我想說那裡沒有什麼不尋常的。我們在第一季確實遇到了貨幣問題。我們預計這種情況不會重演。因此，我想告訴您，無論是企業管理費用還是其他方面，我們預測第二季到第四季的情況都將非常正常。

Nathan Jones, Stifel.

內森瓊斯，斯蒂菲爾。

I wonder if we could just go a little bit deeper into some of the headwinds that you're seeing in North America, I mean, in-plant and industrial is a pretty broad category. So maybe any additional color you can give us on that kind of thing. And then in off-highway, is this all related to OEM and not related to equipment utilization that we generate aftermarket? Just any more color you can give us on those kinds of things.

我想知道我們是否可以更深入地了解您在北美看到的一些不利因素，我的意思是，工廠內和工業是一個相當廣泛的類別。所以也許你可以給我們提供關於這類事情的任何額外的顏色。那麼在非公路領域，這一切是否都與 OEM 有關，而與我們產生的售後市場的設備利用率無關？您可以為這些事情提供更多的色彩。

Sure. So let me talk about in-plant first, Nathan. So like I said, we're just seeing some near-term delays in projects and CapEx spending and just kind of overall uncertainty. An example of that would be tool builders. As I mentioned, the channel sentiment remains positive, and it feels like interest rate cuts should help us in the future here.

當然。內森，讓我先談談廠內的狀況。正如我所說，我們只是看到項目和資本支出方面出現一些近期延遲，以及整體的不確定性。工具製造商就是一個例子。正如我所提到的，通路情緒仍然積極，感覺降息應該對我們的未來有所幫助。

But we are seeing some positives too around some of the mega CapEx out there, but they're delayed, right? We have some wins coming in, but they are delayed, a nice win in Asia Pacific on an EV battery line. So really more than anything, it's about delays in In-plant & Industrial. It feels like a little bit of a pause right now, but we feel positive about what we might see in the second half.

但我們也看到了一些巨額資本支出的積極因素，但它們被推遲了，對嗎？我們取得了一些勝利，但它們被推遲了，這是亞太地區電動車電池生產線的一個不錯的勝利。因此，最重要的是，這是關於廠內和工業的延誤。現在感覺有點暫停，但我們對下半場可能看到的情況感到樂觀。

In off-highway, we did move that to high single-digit negative for the year, and we had it mid-single-digit negative. And again, primarily based on OEM destocking. So lower crop prices, higher interest rates are continuing to really pressure agriculture. And as I mentioned too, a big indicator to us is production rates and additional shutdowns, and we're seeing that from some of those customers.

在非公路領域，我們今年確實將其調整為高個位數負數，並將其調整為中個位數負數。再次強調，主要是基於 OEM 去庫存。因此，較低的農作物價格和較高的利率繼續給農業帶來真正的壓力。正如我也提到的，對我們來說一個重要指標是生產力和額外的停工，我們從其中一些客戶那裡看到了這一點。

Construction is better, but it remains soft. And I would say that it's even softer in Asia Pacific and EMEA than it is in North America. So that's some detail behind those 2 market verticals and what we're seeing.

結構更好，但仍然很軟。我想說，亞太地區和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的情況甚至比北美地區還要疲軟。這就是這兩個垂直市場背後的一些細節以及我們所看到的。

I guess my follow-up, probably around the divestitures. I mean, Parker has divested businesses over the years pretty regularly. But this does seem to be a little bit bigger. Can you talk about kind of what area it's in, why you don't consider yourself to be the best owner of this business anymore.

我想我的後續行動可能是圍繞著資產剝離的。我的意思是，帕克多年來相當頻繁地剝離業務。但這似乎確實有點大了。您能談談它屬於什麼領域嗎？

Is this more of a one-off on the larger side? Or are there other things that we could see coming out of the portfolio that are a little bit bigger in the size of revenue than you've historically divested?

從更大的角度來看，這更像是一次性的嗎？或者，我們可以從投資組合中看到其他收入規模比您歷史上剝離的收入規模更大的東西？

This is a really great example of the best owner playbook process that we use every year. We go through and look at our businesses and make sure that we are clearly still the best owner, that these businesses fit inside of the growth and margin profile that we expect from our businesses. So when we looked at this business, and you're right, it's a little bit bigger than some of the ones that we've done in the past few years, but when we looked at this business, we didn't see that we were the best owner. It's a good business.

這是我們每年使用的最佳所有者劇本流程的一個很好的例子。我們仔細檢查我們的業務，並確保我們顯然仍然是最好的所有者，這些業務符合我們對業務的預期成長和利潤狀況。所以當我們審視這個業務時，你是對的，它比我們過去幾年所做的一些業務要大一些，但是當我們審視這個業務時，我們並沒有看到我們是最好的主人。這是一筆好生意。

We think they're going to be successful under the new owner, but didn't see it as a core technology for Parker, even though with Aerospace, right? And you know how much we like Aerospace, but just not a core technology for us. So that's the reason that we made the decision, and it's a great team, and I'm sure they're going to do well.

我們認為他們將在新東家的領導下取得成功，但不認為這是帕克的核心技術，即使在航空航天公司，對吧？你知道我們有多喜歡航空航天，但這不是我們的核心技術。這就是我們做出這個決定的原因，這是一支很棒的團隊，我相信他們會做得很好。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

喬奧迪，富國銀行。

I wanted to ask about sort of labor flexibility and just agility of the model to understand an environment when you've got kind of Boeing strikes to contend with and slowing kind of end market expectations over the course of the quarter. Just the levers that you can pull and how quickly you can pull them when we see kind of the margin outcome just sort of looking for a little bit more color on sort of agility advantages at Parker.

我想詢問一下勞動力靈活性和模型的敏捷性，以了解當您需要應對波音公司的罷工並在本季度內減緩終端市場預期時的環境。只是當我們看到某種利潤結果時，你可以拉動槓桿以及拉動它們的速度有多快，只是在帕克的敏捷性優勢上尋找更多的色彩。

Well, I would say that we have the ability to flex our workforce across the whole company. But we definitely have the ability to flex the Aerospace workforce and production from OEM to aftermarket and vice versa. So we do have that flexibility. That's not a concern for us.

嗯，我想說的是，我們有能力在整個公司範圍內靈活調整員工團隊。但我們絕對有能力將航空航太勞動力和生產從 OEM 轉移到售後市場，反之亦然。所以我們確實有這種彈性。這不是我們關心的問題。

Joe, Jenny mentioned it in the earlier comments, it's really a testament to the decentralized nature of the way the company runs. 85-some businesses with general managers that have full P&L responsibility. We've never had better data across the enterprise. And what we've learned over this journey is that you're never too soon to act, right?

喬、珍妮在先前的評論中提到過，這確實證明了公司運作方式的去中心化性質。 85 家企業的總經理負有全部損益責任。我們在整個企業中從未擁有過更好的數據。我們在這段旅程中學到的是，行動永遠不會太早，對吧？

And we don't wait for signs from above. Those businesses take those decisions immediately when necessary, depending on what markets they're exposed to.

我們不會等待上面的訊號。這些企業會在必要時立即做出這些決定，這取決於他們所處的市場。

Yes. That's the beauty of all of the tools and the Win Strategy. Some of the best tools for the shop floor are not only driving out the waste but making sure that we can be flexible, that we can be agile to meet our customers' needs.

是的。這就是所有工具和獲勝策略的美妙之處。車間的一些最佳工具不僅可以消除浪費，還可以確保我們能夠靈活地滿足客戶的需求。

Got it. And then I also wanted to touch on mega projects. Two things really. One, in terms of timing. So when you think about these multiyear projects, at what stage you would start to see orders for those?

知道了。然後我還想談談大型專案。確實有兩件事。一、從時間上來說。那麼，當您考慮這些多年期項目時，您會在什麼階段開始看到這些訂單？

And then two, based on kind of what we track, it seems like chemicals and power gen have the biggest growth potential next year. And so just anything in terms of your exposure to those markets as well as what you hear from the customers and those delays, confidence that those projects break ground in '25?

第二，根據我們追蹤的情況，化學品和發電似乎明年具有最大的成長潛力。因此，就您對這些市場的接觸以及您從客戶那裡聽到的情況以及這些延誤而言，您對這些項目在 25 年破土動工的信心如何？

Yes. When you look at like on the slide I had earlier, we're up to $1 trillion. And that's just that's the number that we cited from a source of projects that have been announced. And there's no doubt been some delays and some pushouts. But at the same time, there's been more announced, right?

是的。當你看我之前的幻燈片時，我們的規模高達 1 兆美元。這只是我們從已宣布的項目來源引用的數字。毫無疑問，存在一些延誤和延遲。但同時，還有更多消息宣布，對吧？

And when you look at all the years that they're going to start and projected finishes, I think it's just shifted out a bit. So some, we believe based on what we see today, we'll start in calendar year 2025, and we'll participate in those. As we've talked about in the past, our distribution network will participate.

當你看到他們將要開始的所有年份和預計的結束時，我認為它只是稍微移動了一點。因此，根據我們今天所看到的情況，我們相信，我們將從 2025 年開始，並且我們將參與這些活動。正如我們過去談到的，我們的分銷網絡將參與其中。

In some cases, we will participate directly. As I mentioned before, we win with new construction, new equipment, retooling of factories and then our distributor partners come in right behind that and support the ongoing operations. So it's really just a very promising future for us when it comes to that. I would say, I just mentioned that we had a nice win supporting the EV battery line.

在某些情況下，我們會直接參與。正如我之前提到的，我們透過新建築、新設備、工廠改造而獲勝，然後我們的經銷商合作夥伴緊隨其後並支持持續營運。因此，就這一點而言，這對我們來說確實是一個非常有希望的未來。我想說，我剛剛提到我們在支援電動車電池系列方面取得了不錯的勝利。

And we're, I think, going to continue to see projects like that, smaller and larger products really benefit us this fiscal year.

我認為，我們將繼續看到這樣的項目，更小和更大的產品在本財年確實使我們受益。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

喬·里奇，高盛。

This is Vivek Srivastava on for Joe. Maybe just starting with order trends. Can you talk about how these trends were exiting September. And as we like exited 3Q, did you see any end markets getting better or worse? Any color there would be very helpful.

我是維韋克·斯里瓦斯塔瓦（Vivek Srivastava）為喬代言。也許只是從訂單趨勢開始。您能否談談 9 月這些趨勢是如何退出的？正如我們所看到的第三季那樣，您是否看到任何終端市場變得更好或更糟？任何顏色都會非常有幫助。

Yes. So this is Jenny. So when we look at the orders, on average, what we've seen in the past, and we've talked about this a lot over the last year. But on average, we've seen about 5 to 7 quarters negative before it turns. So if you look at where we're at today, we had 5 negative. We had 1 at 0 at the end of Q4, and I'm speaking about North America now. And now we have Q1 at negative 3.

是的。這就是珍妮。因此，當我們查看平均訂單時，我們會看到過去的情況，並且去年我們對此進行了很多討論。但平均而言，在出現逆轉之前，我們會看到大約 5 到 7 個季度出現負值。所以如果你看看我們今天的處境，我們有 5 個負面結果。我們在第四季末的比分是 1 比 0，我現在談論的是北美。現在我們的 Q1 為負 3。

So that makes this first quarter of FY '25 the seventh quarter where we haven't seen orders turn positive yet. So again, that's what history has shown us, so we feel like this should turn soon. And as I mentioned, what weakened during the quarter in North America was transportation, off-highway and energy, but we did see Aerospace orders very strong.

因此，這使得 25 財年第一季成為我們尚未看到訂單轉正的第七季。再說一次，這就是歷史向我們展示的，所以我們覺得這種情況應該很快就會扭轉。正如我所提到的，本季北美地區的運輸、非公路和能源業務疲軟，但我們確實看到航空航太訂單非常強勁。

And we saw international orders turn positive on Asia improvement, and most of that was semicon and transportation.

我們看到國際訂單因亞洲的改善而出現積極變化，其中大部分是半導體和運輸。

Very helpful color. One thing I also wanted to get a sense of your backlog, last we checked your backlog coverage in the Industrial business specifically has become high 20s compared to like 15% back in 2015. So is this still the case in first quarter? And how much of this current backlog coverage levels do you think is more structural versus areas where you think backlog still needs to come down in parts of the industrial business?

非常有用的顏色。我還想了解你們的積壓情況，最後我們檢查了你們在工業業務中的積壓覆蓋率，特別是與 2015 年的 15% 左右相比，已經達到 20 多歲。那麼第一季還是這樣嗎？您認為目前的積壓覆蓋水平中有多少是結構性的，而您認為工業業務部分積壓仍需要減少的領域？

Yes. So the industrial backlog from a dollar standpoint held steady at $4.2 billion. So no dollar diversification there. It is still in the mid- to high 20s as a percent. And I think that it's a mix. I think it's structural from the standpoint that customers have changed the way that they order. I don't think anybody wants to go through what we went through a couple of years ago and have to really have a lot of wait for their product.

是的。因此，從美元角度來看，工業積壓訂單穩定在 42 億美元。因此，美元不存在多元化。所佔百分比仍處於 20 多歲左右。我認為這是一個混合體。我認為從顧客改變訂購方式的角度來看，這是結構性的。我認為沒有人願意經歷我們幾年前所經歷的事情，並且必須真正等待他們的產品很長時間。

But I also think it speaks mostly to the transformation of our portfolio. With the acquisitions that we've done, we have a longer cycle and higher aftermarket business out there and that longer cycle gives us more visibility and orders further out on the demand horizon. So I think that's really the biggest driver of why this is almost double of what it used to be under the old Parker.

但我也認為這主要說明了我們投資組合的轉變。透過我們所做的收購，我們擁有更長的周期和更高的售後市場業務，而更長的周期使我們有更多的可見性和更遠的需求範圍內的訂單。所以我認為這確實是為什麼這幾乎是老帕克領導下的兩倍的最大驅動因素。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

安德魯‧奧賓，美國銀行。

Just a question. We've been hearing a lot from corporates, and I got on a little bit late, so I apologize if this was answered. But we hear a lot of sort of narrative about uncertainty about the election and I was just wondering, obviously, very close to your distributors, very close to your customers. What are you hearing from your customers?

只是一個問題。我們收到了很多企業的來信，但我的回覆有點晚了，所以如果得到答复，我深表歉意。但我們聽到了很多關於選舉不確定性的敘述，我只是想知道，顯然，與您的經銷商非常接近，與您的客戶非常接近。您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼？

And how much will really change on November 6, right? Because we also sort of have self-lending. We have higher interest rates. We still have inflation. From your perspective, how much of a change will the results of the election make into the year-end and into '25?

到 11 月 6 日，會有多少真正的變化，對吧？因為我們也有自貸。我們的利率較高。我們仍然面臨通貨膨脹。從你的角度來看，選舉結果會對年底和25年產生多大的變化？

So Andrew, I would tell you, as I mentioned, I've been out in the field a bit this quarter and have talked to distributors, some of our largest distributors and Andy Ross has also. We don't have any of them telling us election, right? I mean, they are focused on making sure that they meet the -- what they consider to be still a very high demand of quoting and that they're ready. They talk about their customers just delaying. Some of it may be interest rates, but I can't tell you that I have customers that are telling me, Hey, I'm going to wait until after November 6 to see what happens.

所以安德魯，我想告訴你，正如我所提到的，本季度我已經在現場進行了一些工作，並與分銷商、我們的一些最大的分銷商進行了交談，安迪·羅斯也進行了交談。我們沒有人告訴我們選舉，對嗎？我的意思是，他們專注於確保滿足他們認為仍然非常高的報價要求，並確保他們做好了準備。他們說他們的客戶只是拖延了。其中一些可能是利率，但我不能告訴你，我有客戶告訴我，嘿，我要等到 11 月 6 日之後看看會發生什麼。

Obviously, you read that a lot. You hear that a lot of people think another rate cut and getting past the election is maybe something that's going to change things. But I think we'll have to see what happens, right? I mean, what we have in the guide for Q2 is based off of the orders that we saw in Q1, based off of what we see rolling up from our divisions. And like I said, we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

顯然，你讀了很多。你聽說很多人認為再次降息和通過選舉可能會改變事情。但我認為我們必須看看會發生什麼，對嗎？我的意思是，我們在第二季的指南中的內容是基於我們在第一季看到的訂單，基於我們看到的部門匯總的訂單。就像我說的，我們只能等著看會發生什麼事。

And no, I really appreciate it. And just a follow-up on aerospace and defense, your aftermarket, and particularly there's public private partnerships on the defense aftermarket that has been very successful, but I assume eventually comps will matter. Can you just talk about what's driving the market outperformance there? And how sustainable it is?

不，我真的很感激。只是航空航太和國防、售後市場的後續行動，特別是國防售後市場上的公私部門合作非常成功，但我認為最終比較會很重要。您能談談是什麼推動了市場表現出色嗎？它的可持續性如何？

Yes. I mean, you said it exactly correct. I mean if you just look at Q1 growth in defense MRO, it was 47%. And you're absolutely right, comps are going to get harder. Our previous guidance on that segment of Aerospace was high single digits, and now we're saying low double digits. But it is really based off of just tremendous success with those public private partnerships.

是的。我的意思是，你說得完全正確。我的意思是，如果你只看第一季國防 MRO 的成長，你會發現成長了 47%。你說得對，比賽將會變得更加困難。我們之前對航空航太領域的指導是高個位數，現在我們說的是低兩位數。但它實際上是建立在這些公私合作夥伴關係的巨大成功之上的。

Our teams have done a really great job leveraging the Meggitt portfolio and growing that business even more than we had in the past. So I do think it's going to continue to be a great growth area for us. But the comps will get harder. You're right.

我們的團隊在利用美捷特產品組合方面做得非常出色，並且比我們過去的業務成長更快。所以我確實認為這將繼續成為我們巨大的成長領域。但比賽將會變得更加困難。你說得對。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科，沃爾夫研究中心。

I guess just maybe, Todd, I mean, if you answered that, please cut me off, but that help on the 25% impact from the divestments. Is that for the entire second quarter? And maybe just be a bit more kind of specific on the sort of the revenue and EBITDA impact. Todd Leombruno

我想只是也許，托德，我的意思是，如果你回答這個問題，請打斷我，但這有助於減少撤資帶來的 25% 的影響。整個第二季都是這樣嗎？也許只是更具體地說明收入和 EBITDA 的影響。托德·萊姆布魯諾

Sachi, are you still there, Sachi? Nigel is cutting out a little bit.

佐知，佐知，你還在嗎？奈傑爾正在削減一點。

Yes, I'm still here, Nigel, I think, cut out a little bit there.

是的，我還在這裡，奈傑爾，我想，稍微刪一點吧。

Okay. What I'll try to do, Nigel, is I'll try to answer your question on the divestitures. That $0.25 of segment operating income and that $0.10 of lower interest expense, we are forecasting that for the remainder of our FY '25. So that will start in Q2 and remain with the business for Q3 and Q4. It's about $300 million of sales. All of that is coming out of the North American businesses, and we talked earlier, it is going to have a favorable margin impact for the company.

好的。奈傑爾，我將盡力回答你關於資產剝離的問題。我們預測在 25 財年的剩餘時間裡，該部門營業收入將減少 0.25 美元，利息支出將減少 0.10 美元。因此，這將從第二季開始，並持續到第三季和第四季。銷售額約為 3 億美元。所有這些都來自北美業務，我們之前談過，這將為公司帶來有利的利潤影響。

It will be 20 basis points for the full company, and it's roughly 40 basis points for the North American business. So that's the details on the divestiture. If you need more follow-up, can take that offline.

對於整個公司來說，這將是 20 個基點，對於北美業務來說，大約是 40 個基點。這就是剝離的細節。如果您需要更多跟進，可以將其離線。

Okay. And it's like a mid-teens EBITDA margin, right?

好的。EBITDA 利潤率大約是十幾歲左右，對吧？

Correct.

正確的。

Okay. I mean, look, I think I cut off but just the other expense of $0.26, it just seems very discrete in nature. I mean any thoughts on why that was excluded from the line?

好的。我的意思是，看，我想我砍掉了 0.26 美元的其他費用，它本質上看起來非常離散。我的意思是對為什麼將其排除在外有什麼想法嗎？

Well, we talked about that. It is based on just our normal activity. It was larger than it has been in the past, so we chose not to adjust it out. It really was based on just volatility around currency rates from all the central banks cuts throughout the quarter. We do not expect that to continue. So we didn't forecast it to continue, and that's the story on that. .

嗯，我們討論過這個。它僅基於我們的正常活動。它比過去更大，所以我們選擇不調整它。它實際上是基於整個季度所有央行降息的貨幣利率波動。我們預計這種情況不會持續下去。所以我們沒有預測它會繼續下去，這就是故事。。

I think we may have lost, Nigel. So Sachi, maybe if we can go to the next person in line?

我想我們可能已經輸了，奈傑爾。Sachi，也許我們可以去找下一個排隊的人？

Sounds good. The next question is from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research Partners.

聽起來不錯。下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Sprague。

Just a couple of things. First, Jenny, thanks for the comment on defense MRO, Jenny can have it or Todd, can you just give us the other 3 pieces of Aero if you haven't already I'm sorry if I missed it earlier in the call, commercial OE versus aftermarket and defense OE?

只是幾件事。首先，珍妮，感謝您對防禦 MRO 的評論，珍妮可以擁有它，或者托德，您可以給我們其他 3 件 Aero，如果您還沒有的話，如果我之前在電話中錯過了廣告，我很抱歉OE與售後市場和國防OE 比較？

Yes. You bet, Jeff. You didn't miss it. That was the only one I talked about so far. So commercial OEM, Q1 came in at 3% growth. So our previous guidance there was high single digits, and now, our revised guidance is low single digits. We expect that based on the slower pace of production and rate increases.

是的。你敢打賭，傑夫。你沒有錯過。到目前為止，這是我唯一談到的問題。因此，商業 OEM 第一季成長了 3%。因此，我們先前的指導意見是高個位數，而現在，我們修訂後的指導意見是低個位數。我們預計這是基於生產速度和利率成長放緩。

Defense OEM, it came in slightly negative, but we think that was really just a matter of timing and we remain with the guidance we had out on mid-single-digit growth. Commercial MRO came in at 32% and again, much like my defense MRO comments, the comps are going to get harder. It was strong, but the comps are going to get harder.

國防原始設備製造商的業績略有下降，但我們認為這實際上只是時間問題，我們仍然堅持中個位數成長的指導。商業 MRO 佔 32%，而且，就像我的國防 MRO 評論一樣，比較將變得更加困難。它很強大，但比賽將會變得更加困難。

We think that air traffic growth is going to continue to grow as forecasted, and we're going to see an increase in spare parts purchases with everything that's going on with OEM production. And then defense MRO, high single digit was initial guidance. Now it's low double digits. And again, really a lot of growth with those public private partnerships.

我們認為，空中交通量的成長將按照預測繼續成長，而且隨著 OEM 生產的進展，我們將看到備件採購量的增加。然後是防禦 MRO，高個位數是初步指導。現在是低兩位數。再說一遍，這些公私部門合作確實取得了很大的成長。

And just on the commercial MRO, obviously, over the broader stroke of time, less OE is good for aftermarket. Directionally, we all get that. But do you see any sort of kind of risk in the handoff between the 2? If the strike persists, maybe not everything just kind of automatically shifts over that aftermarket.

就商業 MRO 而言，顯然，從更廣泛的時間來看，減少 OE 對售後市場有利。從方向上來說，我們都明白這一點。但是您認為兩者之間的切換有任何風險嗎？如果罷工持續下去，也許並不是所有的事情都會自動轉移到售後市場。

Maybe how are you managing that in the factories? Is there absorption issues you're trying to work through? Any other color there would be interesting.

也許你在工廠裡是如何管理的？您是否正在嘗試解決吸收問題？任何其他顏色都會很有趣。

I would say that, obviously, we all look forward to returning to what it was. But we have such a diverse customer base that we're able, I said earlier, we're agile, we're flexible and we're able to really overcome that. So we don't see any near-term issues with that.

我想說，顯然，我們都期待回到原來的樣子。但我們擁有如此多元化的客戶群，我們能夠，我之前說過，我們很敏捷，我們很靈活，我們能夠真正克服這個問題。因此，我們認為短期內不會出現任何問題。

And maybe just a really quick one for Todd. Todd, obviously, North American industrial starting off a little slower than expected. It sort of looks like your guide for the year would kind of imply normal sequentials from here off this a little bit slower starting point. Would you agree with that? Or any other color you would share in just terms of trying to get the complexion of the year, right?

對托德來說，也許這只是一個非常快的過程。托德，顯然，北美工業的起步比預期要慢一些。看起來你今年的指南有點暗示從這裡開始的正常順序，這個起點有點慢。你同意嗎？或者您想分享的任何其他顏色，只是為了獲得今年的膚色，對吧？

Yes, Jeff, I do agree with what your comment is there. The only thing would be that that divestiture activity is expected to come out in North America.

是的，傑夫，我確實同意你的評論。唯一的事情是，剝離活動預計將在北美進行。

With the divestiture noted, yes.

考慮到資產剝離，是的。

Okay. Sachi, I think we have time for one more question here.

好的。Sachi，我想我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Joe Giordano, TD Cowen.

喬·佐丹奴，TD·考恩。

Just a question when we think about the order, sometimes it's tough like on the comps and what that's doing to the rates that we're seeing in the current quarter. Can you comment at all on North America international orders in dollars relative to last quarter?

只是當我們考慮訂單時的一個問題，有時這很困難，就像比較一樣，以及這對我們本季看到的費率有何影響。您能否對北美國際訂單（以美元計算）與上季相比有何評論？

About the same, industrial. Yes. $4.2 billion.

大致相同，工業。是的。 42億美元。

So orders in this quarter pretty similar to last quarter in dollars?

那麼本季的訂單與上季的美元訂單非常相似？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And then to your point on delays, I mean, I guess it's kind of a tough question, but like I guess every cancellation in history started as a delay at some point. So like if you look back and think about like prior cycles when things ultimately were canceled, like what are the things that you're on the lookout to see like, all right, these delays are going to like extend indefinitely and get like become something else? Like what do you kind of tend to look for to see if that's happening?

好的。然後就你關於延誤的觀點而言，我的意思是，我想這是一個棘手的問題，但就像我猜歷史上的每一次取消都是在某個時刻開始的。所以，如果你回顧並思考之前的周期，當事情最終被取消時，例如你正在尋找的事情是什麼，好吧，這些延遲將會無限期地延長，並變得像某種東西別的？就像你傾向於尋找什麼來看看這種情況是否正在發生？

Yes. Well, we constantly analyze the backlog. The orders coming in, the changes that happen week-to-week, our divisions are becoming even sharper at that. I would tell you in the past, I would expect with as many quarters as this is going -- has been going on that we would have.

是的。嗯，我們不斷分析積壓的情況。隨著訂單不斷到來，每週的變化，我們的分歧變得更加尖銳。我過去會告訴你，我預計這種情況會持續幾個季度——我們會一直這樣。

In the past, we would have seen cancellations. Right now, we just see delays. And we weren't seeing major delays before this last quarter. So it feels like, like I mentioned before, it feels like more of a pause here. The other thing I would say is what we're just talking about is that overall, the backlog just keeps staying where it is.

在過去，我們會看到取消的情況。現在，我們只看到延誤。在上個季度之前我們沒有看到重大延誤。所以感覺就像我之前提到的，這裡更像是個停頓。我要說的另一件事是，我們剛剛討論的是，總體而言，積壓工作一直保持在原狀。

But to answer your question of what other things we look for, we look for those additional plant shutdowns, changes in production schedules because you can kind of keep a close eye on that and determine whether or not those type of reductions are going to be enough. And so we're not surprised by those additional shutdowns now and reduced order rates. And that's what we have baked into the guide. And we'll have an even better look after the first of the year.

但是，為了回答您關於我們尋找其他什麼的問題，我們會尋找額外的工廠關閉、生產計劃的變化，因為您可以密切注意這些情況並確定這些類型的減少是否足夠。因此，我們對現在的額外停產和訂單率下降並不感到驚訝。這就是我們在指南中融入的內容。今年第一天之後我們將會有更好的觀察。

Okay. That worked out perfectly. We have no more questions in the queue. So this concludes our FY '25 Q1 earnings release webcast. We do appreciate your time, attention and confidence in Parker, and I thank you for joining us today. Jeff Miller, our VP of Investor Relations; and Yan Huo, our Director of Investor Relations, will be available if anyone has any follow-ups throughout the rest of the day. I hope everyone has a great day. Thank you.

好的。效果非常好。我們隊列中沒有更多問題了。我們的 25 財年第一季財報發佈網路廣播到此結束。我們非常感謝您的時間、關注和對帕克的信任，我感謝您今天加入我們。Jeff Miller，我們的投資人關係副總裁；如果有人在當天剩餘的時間裡有任何後續行動，我們的投資者關係總監嚴霍將會在場。我希望每個人都有美好的一天。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。