派克漢尼汾 (PH) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

If anyone should require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad as a reminderGreetings and welcome to the Parker Hannifin Corporation fiscal 2025 second-quarter earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

如果有人需要接線員的幫助，請按電話鍵盤上的星號零作為提醒。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you. You may begin. this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Todd Leombruno Chief Financial Officer. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興向大家介紹主持人、財務長 Todd Leombruno。謝謝。你可以開始了。本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興介紹您的主持人，財務長 Todd Leombruno。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Shelly. We appreciate it so much. Welcome to Parker's fiscal year 2025 second quarter earnings release webcast. This is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer speaking and with me today is Jenny Parmentier, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. We appreciate your interest in Parker and thank you for joining us today.

謝謝你，雪莉。我們非常感激。歡迎收聽派克 2025 財年第二季財報發表網路直播。我是財務長 Todd Leombruno，今天與我一起發言的是我們的董事長兼執行長 Jenny Parmentier。我們感謝您對派克的關注，並感謝您今天加入我們。

On slide two, we will address our disclosures on forward-looking projections in all non-GAAP financial measures. Items listed here could cause actual results to vary from our forecast. Our press release, this presentation and all reconciliations for any non-GAAP measures we released this morning are available under the investors section parker.com.

在第二張投影片中，我們將討論所有非公認會計準則財務指標中前瞻性預測的揭露。此處列出的項目可能會導致實際結果與我們的預測不同。我們的新聞稿、本簡報以及我們今天早上發布的所有非 GAAP 指標的對帳表均可在 parker.com 的投資者部分找到。

The agenda for the call today as Jenny starting with the highlights to our record second quarter performance. She will also highlight how our business system, the Win Strategy, drives operational excellence in Parker. And then she will give an update to our market vertical outlook for the rest of our fiscal year FY25.

珍妮今天電話會議的議程首先介紹了我們第二季度創紀錄的業績。她還將重點介紹我們的業務系統「Win Strategy」如何推動派克的卓越營運。然後她將更新我們對 2025 財年剩餘時間的市場垂直前景。

I will follow Jenny with more details on our strong second-quarter financial results and provide additional color to our updated guidance. We'll then conclude as usual with the question-and-answer portion of the call and we will do our best to address as many questions as possible within the hour.

我將跟隨珍妮提供有關我們強勁的第二季度財務業績的更多詳細信息，並為我們更新的指引提供更多說明。然後，我們將像往常一樣結束通話的問答部分，並盡力在一小時內解答盡可能多的問題。

Now, I'd like to draw your attention to slide number three and Jenny, I will turn it over to you.

現在，我想請大家注意第三張投影片，珍妮，我將把它交給你。

Thank you, Todd. And thank you to everyone for attending the call today. Our performance this quarter reflects our focus on operational excellence and the strength of our balanced portfolio. We produced top quartile safety performance aligned with our goal to be the safest industrial company in the world and saw continued strength from our Aerospace aftermarket.

謝謝你，托德。並感謝大家今天參加電話會議。本季度的業績反映了我們對卓越營運的關注以及均衡投資組合的實力。我們的安全績效達到了最高四分位，這與我們成為世界上最安全的工業公司的目標一致，我們的航空航太售後市場繼續保持強勁勢頭。

Consistent execution of the Win Strategy delivered 110 basis points of margin expansion, resulting in a Q2 record of 25.6% adjusted segment operating margin. In addition, our teams delivered record adjusted segment operating margin across all businesses as well as record earnings per share. Record year-to-date cash flow from operations coupled with proceeds from previously announced divestitures allowed us to substantially reduce debt by $1.1 billion this quarter. And finally, we are encouraged to see industrial orders turn positive in our longer cycle businesses.

持續執行「贏」策略帶來了 110 個基點的利潤率擴大，使得第二季調整後分部營業利潤率創下 25.6% 的記錄。此外，我們的團隊在所有業務中實現了創紀錄的調整後分部營業利潤率以及創紀錄的每股盈餘。創紀錄的年初至今經營活動現金流加上先前宣布的資產剝離所得使我們本季大幅減少了 11 億美元的債務。最後，我們很高興地看到，在我們的長週期業務中，工業訂單轉為正成長。

Next slide please. Our Win Strategy, I'm often asked, how do we continue to expand margins, and more importantly, can we continue to do? I've talked about this several times in the past, it is our business system, the Win Strategy that drives operational excellence. We trust the process. It is a proven strategy and it works. The next few slides will show you how our teams use the Win Strategy to drive performance over the cycle.

請播放下一張投影片。我們的勝利策略，我常被問到，我們如何繼續擴大利潤率，更重要的是，我們能否繼續這樣做？我過去已多次談過這一點，正是我們的業務系統、推動卓越營運的勝利策略。我們相信這個過程。這是一個已被證明有效的策略。接下來的幾張投影片將向您展示我們的團隊如何使用 Win Strategy 來在整個週期中推動績效。

Next slide, please. Embedded in the Win Strategy is the Parker Lean system. It is fundamental to our culture and drives continuous improvement at all 85 divisions. Within the same pillars as the Win Strategy are the critical tools used by all of our general managers and their teams, to expand margins and drive organic growth.

請看下一張投影片。帕克精益系統融入了 Win Strategy 之中。它是我們文化的基礎並推動所有 85 個部門的持續改進。與「成功策略」相同的支柱是我們所有總經理及其團隊用來擴大利潤和推動有機成長的關鍵工具。

Disciplined execution of the Parker Lean System reduces variation and eliminates waste from the business. This system allows us to keep taking performance to the next level, and important to point out here is that we are never done improving our business.

嚴格執行帕克精實系統可減少變化並消除業務浪費。這個系統使我們能夠不斷將績效提升到新的水平，這裡需要指出的是，我們永遠不會停止業務的改進。

Next slide please. On this slide, we have an example of how the Win Strategy drives performance through the cycle in one of our North American divisions. This is a division in our filtration group that has diverse exposure across industrial market verticals and a balanced OEM aftermarket mix. This is an engaged team that has utilized our high performance team structure to execute the Win Strategy.

請播放下一張投影片。在這張投影片中，我們有一個例子，展示了「勝利策略」如何在我們的北美分部之一的整個週期內推動績效。這是我們過濾集團的一個部門，在工業垂直市場中具有多樣化的業務，並擁有均衡的 OEM 售後市場組合。這是一支敬業的團隊，利用我們的高績效團隊結構來執行勝利策略。

Looking at the results on the far right hand side of the page, they have achieved first quartile safety by bringing attention and ownership to concerns, tracking them to closure and scheduling audit follow-ups to ensure sustained results. They are utilizing the Parker Lean system, specifically kaizen to expand margins and achieve the FY25 profitability goals for their division even in a negative growth environment.

查看頁面最右側的結果，他們透過專注於問題並承擔責任、追蹤問題直至解決、安排審計跟進以確保持續成果，實現了第一四分位數的安全。他們正在利用派克精益系統，特別是透過改善來擴大利潤率，即使在負成長環境下也能實現其部門的 FY25 獲利目標。

In addition, they have utilized the simplified design tools to reduce complexity and cost as well as increased dual sourcing to strengthen their supply chain. And finally, use of our Zero Defects tools has resulted in a 52% reduction in rejected parts per million, thus providing their customers a better experience.

此外，他們還利用簡化的設計工具來降低複雜性和成本，並增加雙重採購以加強他們的供應鏈。最後，使用我們的零缺陷工具可以使每百萬的不合格品率減少 52%，從而為客戶提供更好的體驗。

Next slide please. Parker is a transformed company today. The chart on the left side of this page shows the strength of our portfolio over the last 2.5 years. Order rates increased across all reported business in Q2 coming in at 5% for the quarter. Aerospace order strength continued in both aftermarket and OEM. And although we are seeing a continued delay in the expected industrial recovery, we are encouraged to see industrial orders turn positive in our longer cycle businesses.

請播放下一張投影片。如今，派克已是一家煥然一新的公司。本頁左側的圖表顯示了我們過去 2.5 年投資組合的實力。第二季所有報告業務的訂單率均增加，達到 5%。航空航太業的售後市場和原始設備製造商訂單均保持強勁。儘管我們看到預期的工業復甦持續延遲，但我們很高興看到工業訂單在我們的長期週期業務中轉為正值。

Next slide please. Taking a look at our updated FY25 sales forecast by market vertical. We are raising Aerospace and Defense to 11% on the strength of the aftermarket and gradual OEM rate increases. On the industrial side of the business. Although orders have turned positive, there continues to be pressure in many of these markets. We are expecting in plants and industrial equipment growth to be slightly lower within our low-single-digit framework. We are continuing to see delays in recovery while distribution sentiment does remain positive.

請播放下一張投影片。查看我們按垂直市場劃分的最新 FY25 銷售預測。由於售後市場的強勁成長和 OEM 費率的逐步提高，我們將航空航太和國防業務的比例提高到 11%。在業務的工業方面。儘管訂單已轉為正值，但其中許多市場仍面臨壓力。我們預計工廠和工業設備的成長率將略低於我們的低個位數框架。我們繼續看到復甦的延遲，而分銷情緒仍然保持積極。

We're changing our forecast on transportation from low single digit to neutral, primarily driven by weakness in automotive and higher dealer inventories. The bright spot here is that work truck demand does remain strong. Off highway steps down to negative mid-teens as OEM destocking and production cuts continue and the weakness and ag persist. We expect energy markets to remain neutral as projects and CapEx delays continue.

我們將對運輸業的預測從低個位數改為中性，主要原因是汽車業疲軟和經銷商庫存增加。這裡的亮點是工作卡車的需求確實依然強勁。由於原始設備製造商繼續去庫存和減產，以及農業持續疲軟，非公路用車銷售量下滑至負中段。由於項目和資本支出持續延遲，我們預期能源市場將保持中立。

And finally, we are increasing HVAC from low-single digit to mid-single digit growth driven by refrigerant changes in the industry. All of this adds up to an organic growth forecast of approximately 2% for fiscal year '25.

最後，在產業冷媒變化的推動下，我們將 HVAC 的成長率從低個位數提高到中個位數。所有這些加起來使得 25 財年的有機成長預測達到約 2%。

I will now turn it over to Todd to summarize our Q2 results.

現在我將把時間交給托德來總結我們的第二季業績。

Thanks Jenny. Okay, everyone, I'm going to begin with results on slide 10. And then we'll get to some more details on the outlook that Jenny just touched on. As Jenny mentioned, the second quarter was a strong quarter, lots of records. It was another quarter of strong margin expansion and EPS growth. Despite some real topline pressures, sales were down 1.6% versus prior. Most of that decline is the result of the divestitures that we announced.

謝謝珍妮。好的，各位，我將從第 10 張投影片上的結果開始。然後，我們將進一步詳細了解珍妮剛才談到的展望。正如珍妮所提到的，第二季度是一個強勁的季度，創下了許多記錄。這是又一個利潤率和每股盈餘強勁成長的季度。儘管存在一些實際的收入壓力，但銷售額仍比之前下降了 1.6%。大部分下降是我們宣布的資產剝離造成的。

The divestiture impact in the quarter was an unfavorable 1.4%. Currency also flipped on us this quarter, while we were forecasting a slight positive 90 days ago, it turned out to be unfavorable at 0.9%. And on a good note, organic growth was positive at almost 1%.

本季的資產剝離影響為不利的 1.4%。本季貨幣也發生了變化，雖然我們在 90 天前預測貨幣會略有上漲，但結果卻是不利的 0.9%。值得慶幸的是，有機成長率接近 1%。

If you look at segment operating margins 25.6% is a Q2 record. That's an increase of 110 basis points versus prior year. And adjusted EBITDA margins was also a record of 26.8%, happens to also be an increase of 110 basis points from prior year. Adjusted net income of $853 million or 18%. Our return on sales of both of those are also records.

如果你看一下分部營業利潤率，25.6% 是第二季的最高紀錄。這比前一年增加了 110 個基點。而調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率也創下了 26.8% 的紀錄，較上年同期增加了 110 個基點。調整後淨收入為 8.53 億美元，增幅 18%。我們這兩筆交易的銷售報酬率也創下了歷史新高。

And lastly, adjusted earnings per share were up 6% to a Q2 record of $6.53. Jenny mentioned this also, but the strong second quarter performance was consistent across all of our businesses and really just a nice solid finish to the first half of our fiscal year.

最後，調整後每股盈餘上漲 6%，達到第二季創紀錄的 6.53 美元。珍妮 (Jenny) 也提到了這一點，但第二季度的強勁表現與我們所有業務都一致，實際上為我們財年上半年畫上了圓滿的句號。

If we could move to slide 11, this shows the walk for that $0.38 or 6% increase in adjusted EPS. And again, it was just a nice high quality quarter from an operating standpoint segment. Operating income dollars did increase by $33 million or $0.20, despite the 1.6% lower top line. And while strong Aerospace performance was the primary driver, the industrial businesses delivered record segment operating margins despite negative organic growth pressure and FX pressures as well.

如果我們可以轉到第 11 張投影片，這將顯示調整後每股收益增加 0.38 美元或 6%。而且，從營運角度來看，這是一個高品質的季度。儘管營業收入下降了 1.6%，但營業收入確實增加了 3,300 萬美元，即 0.20 美元。雖然強勁的航空航太業績是主要推動力，但工業業務儘管面臨負成長壓力和外匯壓力，仍實現了創紀錄的分部營業利潤率。

In total interest expense was $0.17 favorable. That was driven by our continued focus on debt reduction. Income tax and other both contributed $0.03 which was mostly offset by a slightly higher corporate admin and share count. So the adjusted EPS of $6.53 already said it's a record. And I really commend our team members around the world for a strong operating performance, really diligent cost actions where necessary and really a focus on cash flow that helped us achieve these results.

總利息支出為 0.17 美元。這是因為我們持續關注減債。所得稅和其他稅項均貢獻了 0.03 美元，但大部分都被略高的公司管理和股票數量所抵消。因此，調整後的每股盈餘 6.53 美元已經創下了歷史新高。我非常讚賞我們遍布全球的團隊成員，他們表現出色，在必要時採取了非常勤勉的成本行動，並且真正關注現金流，這些幫助我們實現了這些成果。

If we move into the segments, if I look on slide 12, it really is a testament to the Win Strategy that our team members were able to deliver such broad-based margin expansion. We're so proud of the hard work and all of their efforts. Every business delivered record segment operating margins, whether they had a positive 14% organic growth or whether they were negative 5%. Margin expansion for the entire company was 110 basis points. And another positive sign was that, orders moved to a plus 5%-plus versus a prior year, mainly off of a longer cycle and market strength.

如果我們進入細分市場，如果我看第 12 張投影片，這確實證明了我們的團隊成員能夠實現如此廣泛的利潤率擴張，這是勝利策略的充分證明。我們為他們的所有辛勤工作和努力感到自豪。每項業務都實現了創紀錄的分部營業利潤率，無論是正 14% 的有機成長率還是負 5% 的成長率。整個公司的利潤率擴大了110個基點。另一個正面的訊號是，訂單量比去年增長了 5% 以上，這主要得益於週期延長和市場強勁。

If you look at the diversified industrial North America business, sales were $1.9 billion that equated to an organic growth of negative 5% versus prior. That was lower than our expectations going into the quarter. We continue to see delays in the industrial recovery specifically in transportation and off highway markets. A recovery has also yet to materialize in the distribution channel.

如果你看看北美多元化工業業務，銷售額為 19 億美元，相當於比之前下降 5% 的有機成長率。這低於我們本季的預期。我們繼續看到工業復甦的延遲，特別是在運輸和非公路用車市場。分銷通路的復甦也尚未實現。

But if you look at adjusted segment operating margins, we were able to increase those by 40 basis points to a record 24.6% driven by just unbelievable operating execution. A nice positive sign in North America where orders did turn positive after a few quarters of negative, so we were happy to see that. And again, it's specifically driven by some of our longer cycle verticals.

但如果你看看調整後的分部營業利潤率，我們能夠將其提高 40 個基點，達到創紀錄的 24.6%，這僅僅是得益於令人難以置信的營運執行。北美的訂單在經歷了幾個季度的負面走勢後確實轉為正數，這是一個很好的正面訊號，所以我們很高興看到這一點。再次強調，它具體是由我們的一些較長週期的垂直行業所推動的。

If we move to the industrial international businesses, sales were $1.3 billion. Organic growth in international came in at negative 3%. Asia-PAC was a positive 3%. That's similar to what we had last quarter. Latin America positive at 10%-plus. While EMEA remains challenged with organic growth at negative 8%. But if you look at adjusted segment operating margins, the international team achieved a record high of 24.1% and expanded margins by 110 basis points. As Jenny mentioned, it's really just the power of the Win Strategy and action.

如果我們轉向工業國際業務，銷售額將達到 13 億美元。國際業務有機成長率為負3%。亞太地區成長了 3%。這與我們上個季度的情況類似。拉丁美洲的成長率為 10% 以上。而歐洲、中東和非洲地區則依然面臨有機成長-8%的挑戰。但如果你看看調整後的分部營業利潤率，國際團隊實現了 24.1% 的歷史新高，利潤率擴大了 110 個基點。正如珍妮所提到的，這實際上只是勝利策略和行動的力量。

Our international team continues to focus on productivity, cost controls, all things in the Win Strategy to expand margins and really are operating with unbelievable resiliency in a very tough growth environment. Order rates here also moved a further positive from 1%-plus last quarter to 4%-plus. And that was mainly driven by improvement out of Asia Pacific.

我們的國際團隊繼續專注於生產力、成本控制以及「贏」策略中的所有事項以擴大利潤率，並在非常艱難的成長環境中以令人難以置信的韌性運作。這裡的訂單率也從上一季的 1% 以上進一步上升至 4% 以上。這主要得益於亞太地區的進步。

If we look at Aerospace, Aerospace continues to outperform. Sales were a record $1.5 billion in Aerospace that is up 14% versus prior year. That did exceed our expectations for the quarter. All of that growth was organic -- 14% organic growth and that was really driven by a 20%-plus growth in the aftermarket area and mid single digit positive growth in the OEM markets.

如果我們看一下航空航天，航空航天的表現繼續優異。航空航太業務的銷售額達到創紀錄的 15 億美元，比前一年成長 14%。這確實超出了我們對本季的預期。所有成長都是有機的——14%的有機成長，實際上是由售後市場 20% 以上的成長和 OEM 市場的中等個位數正成長所推動的。

Adjusted segment operating margin, same story here, a record 28.2%. That is an increase of an incredible 170 basis points versus prior. Just really robust top line, favorable aftermarket mix continues to drive this great margin performance and Aerospace orders continue at a positive clip of 9%-plus. So just great job across all of our businesses in the quarter.

調整後分部營業利益率同樣達到創紀錄的 28.2%。與之前相比，這一數字增加了令人難以置信的 170 個基點。強勁的營收和良好的售後市場組合繼續推動著巨大的利潤率表現，航空航太訂單繼續以 9% 以上的速度成長。本季我們所有業務的表現都非常出色。

On slide 13 just to touch on our year-to-date cash flow performance, year-to-date cash flow from operations was 17.4% of sales. That equates to about $1.7 billion in CFOA, that is a record. And it's also an increase of 24% versus prior year. Year-to-date free cash flow increased 17% from prior year, we finished at $1.5 billion or 15.2% of sales for free cash flow.

在第 13 張投影片中，我們談到了我們年初至今的現金流表現，年初至今的營運現金流佔銷售額的 17.4%。這相當於 CFOA 的約 17 億美元，這是一個記錄。與去年相比也成長了 24%。年初至今的自由現金流較前一年增加 17%，最終實現自由現金流 15 億美元，佔銷售額的 15.2%。

Jenny mentioned some of that divestiture activity. Divesture activity in the quarter generated cash proceeds of approximately $620 million. And as reported post tax gain of $223 million. We have excluded that gain from our adjusted results in the quarter and 100% of the proceeds from those transactions were used to further reduce debt.

珍妮提到了一些資產剝離活動。本季的資產剝離活動產生了約 6.2 億美元的現金收益。據報道，稅後收益為 2.23 億美元。我們已將該項收益從本季的調整後業績中剔除，並將該等交易所得的全部收益用於進一步減少債務。

Jenny mentioned in the quarter, we paid down $1.1 billion that moves our year-to-date debt reduction to $1.5 billion and our gross debt to adjusted EBITDA is now $1.7 billion. So good work on cash flow across all elements of the business.

珍妮在本季提到，我們償還了 11 億美元，這使我們年初至今的債務減少額達到 15 億美元，我們的總債務與調整後的 EBITDA 之比現在為 17 億美元。因此，所有業務要素的現金流都表現良好。

Okay. Moving to slide 14 and guidance, let me give you some more details on this. Our reported sales growth for the year is now forecasted to be in the range of minus 2%, the positive one with a 0.5 negative at the midpoint. Keep in mind, divestitures are 1.5% of that unfavorable impact and 100% of that divestiture activity is from the industrial North America businesses.

好的。前往第 14 張投影片和指導，讓我為您提供有關此內容的更多詳細資訊。我們報告的今年的銷售成長預測在-2% 之間，中間值為正數，負數為 0.5。請記住，資產剝離僅佔不利影響的 1.5%，且 100% 的資產剝離活動來自北美工業企業。

Currency headwinds are now expected to be a 1% negative headwind that is based on December 31st exchange rates as we always do, that did flip from what we were expecting 90 days ago, just currency rates continue to show significant volatility. In respect to organic growth, we have raised the Aerospace organic growth midpoint by 100 basis points to now 11% for the full year.

正如我們一直以來所做的那樣，現在預計貨幣逆風將是基於 12 月 31 日匯率的 1% 負逆風，這與我們 90 天前的預期不同，只是貨幣匯率繼續表現出顯著的波動。在有機成長方面，我們將航空航太有機成長中點提高了 100 個基點，目前全年為 11%。

But the offset is on industrial sector. Midpoint has been decreased as followed in the industrial North America, organic growth is now forecasted to be negative 2.5% at the midpoint for the year. And the midpoint of the industrial International organic growth is now forecasted to be flat. For the full year, we expect Parker's organic growth to be a positive 2% at the midpoint.

但抵消的是工業領域。隨著北美工業的下滑，中點也預計隨之下降，目前預計今年中點有機成長率為負 2.5%。目前預測工業國際有機成長的中點將持平。就全年而言，我們預期帕克的有機成長率中位數為正 2%。

Despite all of that, we are raising our adjusted segment operating margin guidance by an additional 10 basis points for the full year and moving our expectations to 25.8% for the year, that is now a forecasted margin expansion of 90 basis points versus our fiscal year finish of last year.

儘管如此，我們仍將全年調整後分部營業利潤率預期額外上調 10 個基點，並將全年預期上調至 25.8%，這意味著與去年財年末相比，預計利潤率將擴大 90 個基點。

Tax rate is now slightly down to approximately 22%. We are modeling 22.5% for the second half of the year. And there's more details of that in the appendix along with assumptions we're using for corporate G&A interest and other as we usually provide those. Despite the currency headwinds and the delayed industrial recovery that Jenny talked about, we are maintaining our full year adjusted EPS midpoint at $26.70.

目前稅率略有下降，至約22%。我們預測下半年的成長率為 22.5%。附錄中還有更多詳細信息，以及我們通常提供的用於企業一般及行政費用利息和其他費用的假設。儘管面臨珍妮提到的貨幣逆風和工業復甦延遲，我們仍將全年調整後每股盈餘中位數維持在 26.70 美元。

Full year as reported EPS is now expected to be $24.76 and like I just said, adjusted EPS midpoint is expected to be $26.70, both of those have a range of plus or minus $0.30 on either side. We also remain committed to our free cash flow forecast in the range of $3 billion to $3.3 billion for the full year.

報告的全年每股收益預計為 24.76 美元，而正如我剛才所說，調整後的每股收益中點預計為 26.70 美元，兩者之間的範圍均為正負 0.30 美元。我們也將繼續預測全年自由現金流將在 30 億美元至 33 億美元之間。

If we look specifically at the third quarter for FY25, reported sales are expected to be approximately $4.9 billion with organic growth of positive 1.5%. Adjusted segment operating margin is 25.6% and adjusted EPS for the quarter is expected to be $6.65.

如果我們特別關注 25 財年第三季度，報告的銷售額預計約為 49 億美元，有機成長率為正 1.5%。調整後分部營業利益率為 25.6%，本季調整後每股盈餘預計為 6.65 美元。

So Jenny, that's all I have. I will hand it back to you and I'll draw everyone's attention to slide 15.

珍妮，這就是我所擁有的一切。我會把它交還給你們，並請大家注意第 15 張投影片。

Thank you, Todd. And a reminder on what drives Parker; safety, engagement and ownership are the foundation of our culture. It's our people and living up to our purpose that drives top quartile performance. And we remain committed to being great generators and deployers of cash.

謝謝你，托德。並提醒大家帕克的動力是什麼；安全、參與和所有權是我們文化的基礎。正是我們的員工和實現我們的目標推動了我們取得最高四分位的表現。我們依然致力於成為偉大的現金創造者和部署者。

Todd just showed you our cast generation year-to-date and we talked about all the great performance across all of the divisions. We are actively focused on extending our track record of deploying capital to deliver the best shareholder value possible.

托德剛剛向你們展示了我們今年迄今為止的演員陣容，我們討論了所有部門的出色表現。我們積極致力於擴大我們的資本部署記錄，以盡可能實現最佳的股東價值。

Thanks, Jenny. Shelly, we are ready to begin the Q&A session. So we'll take whoever you got first in the queue.

謝謝，珍妮。雪莉，我們準備開始問答環節。因此我們將選擇隊列中第一個人。

Thank you. And I said we are, we would like to we'll be conducting a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。我說我們會的，我們願意進行一次問答環節。（操作員指令）

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

傑夫‧斯普拉格（Jeff Sprague），垂直研究夥伴。

Thank you. Good morning everyone. Jenny, maybe to start, just more complexion on what you're seeing in the industrial long cycle. I guess, when you kind of addressed to the strength in industrial long cycle, is this the aero stuff that sits inside industrial? Or maybe you could elaborate on what verticals specifically are looking better on the long-cycle side.

謝謝。大家早安。珍妮，也許首先，你對工業長週期的觀察更為複雜。我想，當您談到工業長週期的強度時，這是工業內部的航空材料嗎？或者也許您可以詳細說明從長週期來看哪些垂直行業表現更好。

Yes. Jeff, primarily, it is the long-cycle strength. The aerospace and defense is sitting in those industrial businesses. But it's also positive in HVAC and in semicon. So that's really what's helping those orders in Asia Pacific increase this last quarter.

是的。傑夫，首先，這是長週期的力量。航空航太和國防業就位於這些工業企業之中。但它對暖通空調和半導體產業也具有積極意義。這才是幫助亞太地區訂單在上個季度增加的真正原因。

And so the kind of sales conversion cycle on that stuff is we're talking more 6, 9, 12 months in your view?

那麼，您認為這類銷售轉換週期是 6、9 還是 12 個月呢？

Right, right. Beyond our fiscal year and more into fiscal year '26.

對，對。超越我們的財政年度，進入 26 財政年度。

Okay. Great. And then I was just hoping, Todd could give a little bit more color on just the pattern -- organic pattern of industrial revenues Q3 and Q4 to close out the year. What's embedded in the $6.65, for example, for the industrial?

好的。偉大的。然後我只是希望，托德可以對今年第三季和第四季的工業收入有機模式給出更多的說明。比如說，6.65 美元的工業價格包含了什麼？

Yeah. Absolutely, Jeff. So we did pull down Q3 slightly. When you look at what we're looking at full year -- Jenny, I may ask you to grab that, if you've got it handy.

是的。當然，傑夫。因此我們確實略微拉低了 Q3。當你看到我們全年的展望時 - 珍妮，如果你手邊有的話，我可能會請你抓住它。

Yes. So we have -- for our Q4 guidance, the industrial organic sales guidance is 2.5% for North America and 5% for international. It does assume a recovery, right? So basically, what we've done here is push things out a quarter. This guide is in line with prior growth periods when you look at sequentially Q3 to Q4. So that's an assumption that we're making in there.

是的。因此，對於我們的第四季指引，工業有機銷售指引為北美 2.5%、國際 5%。它確實假設會出現復甦，對嗎？所以基本上，我們在這裡所做的就是將事情推遲一個季度。當您連續查看第三季至第四季時，該指南與先前的增長期一致。這是我們所做的一個假設。

Aerospace, we've raised the growth outlook, as Todd mentioned earlier, to 11% for the full year. And if you look at Q4 for aerospace last year, we were at a positive 19%. So it's a tough comp for aerospace, but that's what we're showing for the rest of this year.

正如托德之前提到的，我們將航空航天業的成長預期上調至全年 11%。如果你看看去年航空航太業的第四季度，我們的成長率是 19%。因此，對於航空航天業來說，這是一個艱難的競爭，但這就是我們今年剩餘時間所展示的。

Great. Thank you. I'll leave it there.

偉大的。謝謝。我就把它留在那裡。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

So I know that one month doesn't necessarily make a trend, but I'm just curious, as we've started 2025, have you seen like any discernible differences or changes in trends based on how you exited calendar year 2024?

所以我知道一個月並不一定能形成一種趨勢，但我只是好奇，當我們進入 2025 年時，根據您退出 2024 日曆年的方式，您是否看到了任何明顯的差異或趨勢變化？

What we have right now is the best look that we have for this quarter and for the second half. So nothing notable that I would comment on at this point, just the best look we have today.

我們現在對本季和下半年的情況是最好的預測。因此，目前我沒有什麼值得評論的，只是我們今天所看到的最好的情況。

Okay. Fair enough. And then, I guess, the follow-on question to that, Jenny, is like, look, you guys have done an amazing job. And you described it a little bit earlier in your prepared remarks regarding your ability to expand margins in the industrial businesses despite this like very weak environment. If the current like trends hold through the remainder of your fiscal year, I mean, do you still expect to see some margin expansion coming out of both North America and international? Or does it become a lot harder?

好的。很公平。然後，我想，接下來的問題是，珍妮，看，你們做得非常好。您在剛才的準備好的發言中已經描述了儘管環境非常疲軟，您仍有能力擴大工業業務的利潤率。如果目前的趨勢持續到您財政年度的剩餘時間，我的意思是，您是否仍預期北美和國際的利潤率會有所擴大？還是變得更困難了？

I think we're still going to expand margins. I feel very strongly about the power of The Win Strategy and the tool set that's available to our general managers. I mean, obviously, everybody likes volume, right? That's something that is a positive. But I don't pull back on my margin expansion story. We have the tools and our teams are doing a great job.

我認為我們仍將擴大利潤率。我強烈感受到「勝利策略」和我們的總經理可以使用的工具集的力量。我的意思是，顯然每個人都喜歡音量，對吧？這是一件正面的事情。但我不會收回我的利潤率擴張故事。我們擁有工具，我們的團隊也表現出色。

Yes. Joe, I would just add. We do have margin expansion in the guide here for the second half. It is more muted just because there's some currency headwinds, and obviously, the top line headwinds. But to Jenny's point, if you look at across all three businesses, we're still showing strong margin expansion across all three of those businesses.

是的。喬，我只是想補充一下。我們的指南中確實提到了下半年的利潤率擴大。它之所以更加溫和，只是因為存在一些貨幣逆風，而且顯然還有營收逆風。但正如珍妮所說，如果你看看這三項業務，我們仍然看到這三項業務的利潤率強勁擴張。

All right, thanks guys.

好的，謝謝大家。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

戴維斯 (Scott Davis)，Melius Research。

Hey, good morning. Jenny and Todd.

嘿，早安。珍妮和托德。

Morning, Scott.

早安，史考特。

There's not much to pick on. There hasn't been for some time, guys, so I'll kind of ask some nuances around M&A. We keep hearing about kind of some of the enthusiasm of stuff coming out of PE. But historically, you guys have had kind of probably tilted a little bit more towards carve-outs. But what do you see out there in the M&A environment? And is your enthusiasm or, I should say, confidence in getting deals done in higher than it was in -- do you think in '24 or comparable?

沒什麼好挑剔的。夥計們，已經有一段時間沒有這樣做了，所以我想問一些有關併購的細微差別。我們不斷聽到一些關於 PE 中出現的熱情事物。但從歷史上看，你們可能更傾向於豁免。但是您在併購環境中看到了什麼？您對於完成交易的熱情，或者說信心，是否比 24 年更高，或者說相當？

So it is an exciting time, and we do have a robust pipeline. And we put a lot of stock in the fact that many of the assets in the pipeline or relationships that we've built over many years. And obviously, we've worked really hard and we've done a good job paying down debt. So we're in a position to do that.

這是一個激動人心的時刻，我們確實擁有強大的管道。我們非常重視我們多年來建立的許多資產和關係。顯然，我們確實非常努力，並且很好地償還了債務。因此我們有能力做到這一點。

So I don't know if I would comment that it's easier, but it's definitely a focus for us, and we're going to make sure that we continue to keep a close eye on everything. Targets of all sizes in the pipeline, you've heard me say that a couple of times. We still have the same criteria. We want to acquire companies.

所以我不知道我是否會說這更容易，但這絕對是我們關注的重點，我們將確保繼續密切關註一切。各種規模的目標都在醞釀中，你們已經聽我說過好幾次了。我們仍持有同樣的標準。我們想收購公司。

We're the clear best owner, accretive to growth, resiliency, margins cash flow, EPS, synergies. So we're really, really committed to deploying our capital in a way that's going to deliver the shareholder value that we've shown we can deliver in the past.

我們無疑是最好的所有者，能夠促進成長、彈性、利潤率、現金流、每股盈餘和協同效應。因此，我們確實、確實致力於以一種能為股東帶來價值的方式部署我們的資本，正如我們過去所證明的那樣。

Yeah. That makes sense. And I have to ask a question just because orders are a little better than I would have thought they'd be. Any kind of weird stuff out there as it relates to either buying ahead of tariffs or buying ahead of price increases or anything else that you can kind of point to -- that would have impacted orders a little bit? Or was it just pretty much things are getting better, and that's the story?

是的。這很有道理。我必須提出一個問題，因為訂單比我想像的要好一些。是否存在任何與提前徵收關稅或提前漲價購買有關的奇怪現象，或者其他任何您能指出的會對訂單產生一定影響的東西？還是說事情變得越來越好，這就是故事？

No, I wouldn't say nothing at all under those couple of items you just said. I mean we're seeing the strength of aerospace and defense in our industrial businesses and HVAC and semicon. So longer cycle, nothing strange.

不，對於您剛才說的那幾項，我根本不會說什麼。我的意思是，我們在工業業務、暖通空調和半導體領域看到了航空航太和國防的實力。週期如此長，沒什麼奇怪的。

Okay. Congrats and best of luck this year.

好的。恭喜你並祝你今年好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks Scott.

謝謝斯科特。

Mig Dobre, Baird.

米格·多布雷、貝爾德。

Just to follow up on the tariff discussion, I'm wondering sort of how your own thinking has evolved around this issue. What are you hearing from customers in terms of how they're preparing to deal with tariffs, especially if Canada and Mexico is involved? And again, what Parker's strategy would be around this, whether with your production or anything else that you're planning to do with your business?

只是為了跟進關稅討論，我想知道您對這個問題的想法是如何演變的。您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼關於他們準備如何應對關稅的信息，特別是如果涉及加拿大和墨西哥？再說一次，帕克在這方面的策略是什麼，無論是針對您的生產還是您計劃在業務中做的任何其他事情？

Yes. Well, I mean, Mig, obviously, there'll be an impact depending on what actually happens. But we've dealt with tariffs before. We have the visibility, we have the tools, and we have the agility to act if and when something happens.

是的。嗯，米格，我的意思是，顯然，這會產生影響，這取決於實際情況。但我們以前也處理過關稅問題。我們擁有可見性，擁有工具，如果發生事情，我們能夠靈活地採取行動。

So I would also say that over the past decade, we've built a local-for-local model because we want to be close to our customers. So if it happens, there will be impact, but that definitely helps us. And we've been focused on supply chain leadership now for a couple of years. A lot of new tools and strategies have been put into place to enforce that local-for-local and reduce lead times.

所以我想說，在過去十年裡，我們建立了本地服務本地的模式，因為我們想更貼近我們的客戶。所以如果發生這種情況，就會產生影響，但這肯定會對我們有幫助。幾年來，我們一直專注於供應鏈領導。許多新的工具和策略已經到位，以加強本地服務並減少交貨時間。

So we don't see a big need for a supply chain realignment. We don't foresee any of that. And because we've dealt with this before and our customers know how we've handled this before, the teams will get to work when they need to.

因此，我們認為對供應鏈進行重組的必要性並不大。我們沒有預見到任何這些。因為我們以前處理過這個問題，而且我們的客戶也知道我們以前是如何處理的，所以團隊會在需要的時候開始工作。

Understood. My follow-up, looking at Slide 8 where you kind of talk about your growth forecast by market vertical, I'm wondering a little bit about mix. Maybe you can comment on that. I know we talk about it in aerospace and defense, but within your industrial businesses, we're seeing some verticals like off-highway, for instance, more pressure relative to others. Is there anything to call out here in terms of some of these end markets bearing maybe higher margins versus the segment average?

明白了。我的後續問題是，請看投影片 8，您在其中談到了按垂直市場劃分的成長預測，我對組合有點好奇。也許您可以對此發表評論。我知道我們在航空航太和國防領域談論這個問題，但在你們的工業業務中，我們看到一些垂直行業，例如非公路用車行業，相對於其他行業，壓力更大。這裡有什麼需要注意的嗎？

I don't think there's anything to call out here, anything that would be of a concern or change the way that we're looking at the forecast or how we can expand margins. So nothing -- within some of these verticals, you've heard us talk, for instance, within off-highway, ag is weaker than construction. But there's nothing nothing there that I would think we would point to a mix concern.

我認為這裡沒有什麼可指出的，也沒有什麼值得擔憂的事情，也沒有什麼會改變我們看待預測的方式或我們如何擴大利潤率。所以沒有什麼——在這些垂直領域中，你聽到我們談論過，例如，在非公路領域，農業比建築業弱。但我認為，沒有什麼可以引起我們混合的擔憂。

Yes. Mig, the only thing I would tell you, as you know, this -- our distribution channel has a more positive margin profile than the OEM channel, but it's not anything out of line than what we've seen in normal periods at this time. So the margin expansion is really coming from the team working really hard on productivity, working really hard on cost and managing what they can control.

是的。米格，如你所知，我唯一想告訴你的是，我們的分銷管道比 OEM 管道擁有更積極的利潤率，但與我們目前在正常時期看到的相比，這並不算什麼異常。因此，利潤率的擴大實際上來自於團隊在提高生產力、降低成本和管理他們能夠控制的領域所付出的努力。

All right, that's great. Thanks.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

David Raso, Evercore ISI.

大衛·拉索（David Raso），Evercore ISI。

Jenny, earlier, you were mentioning, I believe you said fourth quarter organic growth rates. And I won't bore you with the math right now, but I'm just trying to make sure I understand the cadence seems to have a very light organic growth for aero in the third quarter to foot to the full company third quarter organic, but then a big bounce in the fourth quarter. I'm just trying to make sure I'm reading that correctly, the way you laid out the industrial growth.

珍妮，之前你提到過，我相信你說的是第四季的有機成長率。我現在不會用數學來煩你，但我只是想確保我理解了節奏，第三季度航空業的有機增長似乎非常緩慢，而整個公司第三季度的有機增長似乎很緩慢，但在第四季度出現了大幅反彈。我只是想確保我對您所闡述的工業成長的理解是正確的。

So aerospace in the third quarter is projected to be 9.5%. Fourth quarter is 5%. And what I mentioned earlier was fourth quarter last year was 19%, and so still strong aerospace growth but a pretty tough comp there. Total year is 11% for aerospace.

因此預計第三季航空航太業的成長率為 9.5%。第四季為5%。我之前提到，去年第四季的成長率為 19%，因此航空航天業的成長仍然強勁，但競爭相當激烈。全年航空航太業成長 11%。

David, I really do think it's just the comps. If we look at the sheer dollars, Q4 would be the highest aerospace shipments we've ever had in the company, and it would be obviously the highest we shipped all year.

大衛，我確實認為這只是比較。如果從純粹的美元角度來看，第四季的航空航太產品出貨量將是我們公司歷史上最高的，而且顯然也將是我們全年出貨量最高的。

Okay. Helpful. And then when you noted you expect some improvement in the fourth quarter, can you highlight where are you seeing that? Are there already conversations, some stocking levels, maybe on some of the short cycle? Just where do you expect to see that improvement?

好的。很有幫助。然後，當您指出預計第四季度會有所改善時，您能否強調一下您看到了哪些改善？是否已經開始討論一些庫存水平，也許是關於一些短週期的討論？您希望在哪些方面看到這種改進？

Well, we expect to see some gradual industrial recovery based off of the fact that, as Todd just mentioned, our distributor sentiment is very positive. And we've been here at that average time of impact we're here at five quarters of negative growth, and the average is six. And North America International, we're at six quarters of negative growth, and the average of six. So we're just expecting that this turn is coming, but it's been pushed out another quarter from what we see right now.

嗯，我們預計會看到工業逐漸復甦，因為正如托德剛才提到的，我們的經銷商情緒非常積極。在受到這平均影響的時間內，我們已經經歷了五個季度的負成長，平均時間為六個季度。而北美國際市場則已連續六個季度出現負成長，平均六個季度如此。所以我們只是預計這個轉折點即將到來，但從我們現在看到的情況來看，它又被推遲了一個季度。

And when it comes to the mix of what is picking up versus what you expect to pick up, I'm just trying to get a sense of how much should we think about. Is it an accelerator in the margin expansion, all else equal, with what's supposed to pick up in a couple of quarters? I mean, usually, you think of, for example, distribution is some of your highest-margin business. And that sounds like that maybe hasn't necessarily accelerated yet. Is that still on the come? Or maybe you can explain a little bit how to think about the mix of what's starting to recover and what's on the come.

當談到實際成長情況與預期成長的組合時，我只是想了解我們應該考慮多少。在其他條件相同的情況下，它是否會成為利潤率擴大的加速器，並預計在未來幾季內會出現回升？我的意思是，通常，你會認為，例如，分銷是利潤最高的業務之一。這聽起來好像還沒加速。那還在進行中嗎？或者也許您可以稍微解釋一下如何看待已經開始復甦的事物和即將復甦的事物的組合。

Yes. Distribution, it's still on the come, right? I mean they're positive. They're expecting it to happen. They're ready for a recovery, but it hasn't come yet. So yes, obviously, distribution is a higher margin for us. But again, our margin expansion is going to come from the teams continuing to do all the great work that they do on productivity and driving out costs in our plants as well.

是的。分佈，還在進行中，對嗎？我的意思是他們很積極。他們期待著它的發生。他們已經做好了復甦的準備，但復甦尚未到來。所以是的，顯然分銷對我們來說意味著更高的利潤。但是，我們的利潤率擴大將來自於團隊繼續努力提高生產力並降低工廠成本。

Yes. The spirit of the question is everybody after the next quarter or even after this call start thinking about how do you guide in July or early August. And just trying to think about distribution starts a little more of a lead horse earnings recovery into fiscal '26. Relatively speaking, that should be a positive margin mix. So that was the spirit of it.

是的。問題的核心是，下個季度之後，甚至在這次電話會議之後，每個人都會開始思考 7 月或 8 月初將如何進行指導。只要想想分銷情況，就能看到 26 財年獲利略有復甦的跡象。相對而言，這應該是一個正的利潤組合。這就是它的精神。

We were really happy to see the orders turn positive. I think another quarter would be another great data point to make us feel good about '26.

我們很高興看到訂單量轉正。我認為另一個季度將會是另一個偉大的數據點，讓我們對'26年感到滿意。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Dave.

謝謝，戴夫。

Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.

傑米庫克（Jamie Cook），Truist Securities。

Hi, good morning. Congrats on a nice quarter. I guess just two questions. One, can you give more color on the Lat Am order as a percent and then EMEA, I guess, down 8%, what you're seeing there? And then, I guess, Jenny or Todd, in the spirit of the margin question again and your outperformance given organic growth is disappointed this year. To what degree can we expect -- when the markets turn, is there a reason to believe that incremental margins coming out of this downturn should be better than average because of structural improvements in The Win Strategy that you would point to above-average incremental margins this cycle? Thank you.

嗨，早安。恭喜您度過了一個愉快的季度。我想只有兩個問題。首先，您能否以百分比的形式提供更多關於拉丁美洲訂單的詳細信息，然後是歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我猜，下降了 8%，您看到的情況是什麼？然後，我想，珍妮或託德，再次本著利潤率問題的精神，今年你們在有機增長方面的優異表現令人失望。在多大程度上我們可以預期－當市場轉變時，是否有理由相信，由於「制勝策略」的結構性改善，此次經濟衰退後出現的增量利潤率應該高於平均水平，您會指出本週期的增量利潤率高於平均水平嗎？謝謝。

Yes. Jamie, let me touch on that margin question first. The incremental margins are a little bit difficult with a muted top line, right? The calculations get a little strange, but the team has unbelievably performed on that. We have clear margin expansion targets out to our longer-term targets. We don't expect FY '26 to be any different. That will be another leg in moving those margins to what we have committed to.

是的。傑米，首先讓我談談利潤問題。在營收表現平淡的情況下，增加利潤率有點困難，對嗎？計算結果有些奇怪，但團隊的表現令人難以置信。我們有明確的利潤擴張目標和長期目標。我們預計26財年也不會有什麼不同。這將是我們實現所承諾利潤的又一步。

But I think if you're looking at a, in general, we really still believe 30% incremental margins are best-in-class. And if you're doing that, you're doing all the right things like investing in the business and obviously generating a higher organic growth. So that's what we're kind of pushing the teams to.

但我認為，如果從總體上看，我們仍然相信 30% 的增量利潤率是同類最佳的。如果你這樣做了，那麼你就做了所有正確的事情，例如投資業務，顯然還能實現更高的有機成長。這就是我們要推動團隊去做的事情。

In respect to Latin America, yes, they have been fantastic. It is a small piece of the company, but the team down there has been really stellar in growth, in margin performance and really just doing a fantastic job. We tell them all the time when we're in our meetings that we're so impressed with what they've been able to do. It's pretty much been broad-based performance across the Latin America businesses. There's a lot of filtration business in Latin America, a lot of Motion Systems business in Latin America, but they do touch really all of the verticals that we play in. So I'd say broad-based.

就拉丁美洲而言，他們確實表現得非常出色。它只是公司的一小部分，但那裡的團隊在成長、利潤表現方面確實表現優異，做得非常出色。我們在開會時總是告訴他們，他們所做的事情給我們留下了深刻的印象。這幾乎是整個拉丁美洲企業普遍表現出色。拉丁美洲有很多過濾業務，有很多運動系統業務，但它們確實涉及我們所涉足的所有垂直領域。因此我認為是廣泛的。

Sorry, on (inaudible), down 8%?

抱歉，（聽不清楚），下降了 8%？

I'm sorry, what was that, Jamie?

抱歉，傑米，那是什麼？

Sorry, the [EMEA] order is down 8%, EMEA?

抱歉，[EMEA] 訂單下降了 8%，EMEA？

EMEA has just been a really challenging environment. It's across the board there. It's been in a negative environment for a while. I think it's a plus that international orders have turned positive. We you have to see that in our EMEA region. But I will tell you, the team, again, is doing everything they can to be ready for a recovery and to do that in the most cost-efficient manager -- managed possible. They continue to be able to eke out margin improvement despite the top line pressure.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區確實是一個充滿挑戰的環境。這是全面的。一段時間以來，它一直處於負面環境中。我認為國際訂單轉為正數是件好事。我們必須在我們的 EMEA 地區看到這一點。但我要告訴你們，團隊正在盡一切努力為復甦做好準備，並盡可能以最具成本效益的方式進行管理。儘管面臨營業收入壓力，他們仍能努力提高利潤率。

Yeah. Jamie, I would just add on to that, that I would consider a broad-based, implant transportation, off-highway, just really a challenging demand environment there.

是的。傑米，我只想補充一點，我認為廣泛的植入式運輸、非公路運輸，確實是一個充滿挑戰的需求環境。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓 (Andrew Obin)。

Yes, good morning. Just a sort of follow-up on Dave's question, I think, a little bit. Industrial businesses are getting more long cycle within your portfolio. So if you look at history, does it take longer versus history now for positive orders to translate to positive sales growth? Should we just thinking different growth algorithm?

是的，早安。我認為，這只是對戴夫問題的一種後續回答。您的投資組合中的工業業務的週期越來越長。那麼，如果你回顧歷史，現在的積極訂單是否比歷史更長的時間轉化為積極的銷售成長？我們是否應該考慮不同的成長演算法？

Well, it's been seven quarters and the average was six. So it's one quarter longer than the past. So --

嗯，已經過了七個季度，平均值是六個。因此比過去長了一個季度。所以--

No, no, no. I'm asking historically, you are a longer-cycle business, right? So if you get an order, right, should we dial in growth later than we would like looking at Parker 5, 10 years ago?

不，不，不。我問的是歷史上，你們是一家週期較長的企業，對嗎？所以如果你收到了訂單，那麼我們是否應該比 5 年、10 年前帕克所希望的更晚實現增長？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. I think on the longer-cycle businesses, Andrew, that's for sure. I think the real challenges is some of those shorter-cycle businesses are the ones that are under the most pressure right now. So when we see that come back, I wouldn't expect any change in that cadence. But if you look at the mix of the whole company, leaning more longer cycle for us. That means a little bit longer translation into organic growth.

是的。安德魯，我認為對於較長週期的業務來說，這是肯定的。我認為真正的挑戰是一些短週期業務目前面臨的壓力最大。因此，當我們看到它回歸時，我不會期望這種節奏會發生任何變化。但如果你看一下整個公司的組合，我們傾向於更長的週期。這意味著轉化為有機成長需要更長的時間。

And I guess, I'll ask two questions as a follow-up because I think one of you simply can't answer. Any sense when this off-highway OEM destock will end? And then second question, just granularity maybe on aftermarket for aero military versus commercial because that has been a very nice story?

我想，我會問兩個後續問題，因為我認為你們中的一個根本無法回答。有沒有跡象顯示非公路用車 OEM 的庫存減少現象何時會結束？然後第二個問題，可能只是航空軍用與商用售後市場的粒度，因為這是一個非常好的報道？

Yeah. I think off-highway is going to be challenged for the rest of the calendar year, especially. So that would be my best estimate right now. And you want some color on aero mix? Was that what you asked, Andrew?

是的。我認為越野輪胎在今年剩餘時間內將面臨尤其大的挑戰。所以這是我目前最好的估計。您想要在航空混合物上添加一些顏色嗎？這就是你問的嗎，安德魯？

Yes. Just aftermarket, military versus commercial.

是的。只是售後市場、軍用市場與商用市場。

So aftermarket -- just let me go through the sales with you and then just remind you of our guidance. So total aerospace was 14% growth. Commercial OEM was 5%. Defense OEM was 8%. Commercial aftermarket, 21%; defense aftermarket, 25%. So we're continuing to see that strength there as we're waiting for those rate increases to go up. And then although we just have a really strong defense depot partnerships, which is just helping the defense aftermarket.

因此售後市場—讓我和您一起了解銷售情況，然後提醒您我們的指導。因此整個航空航太業成長了14%。商業OEM佔5%。國防原始設備製造商佔8%。商業售後市場，21%；國防售後市場，25%。因此，我們在等待利率上調的同時，繼續看到這種強勢。儘管我們與國防倉庫建立了非常強大的合作夥伴關係，但這對國防售後市場有所幫助。

And then if you look at the outlook, we are raising commercial OEM to mid-single-digit growth. It was previously low single digit. We're raising commercial MRO to high teens growth. It was previously mid-teens. And we're raising defense MRO to high teens growth, previously low double digit. So really, just overall great strength here in aerospace continues.

如果你看一下前景，我們正在將商業 OEM 提高到中等個位數的成長。此前該數字一直都是個位數低點。我們正在將商業 MRO 成長率提高到高十幾個百分點。以前是十幾歲的時候。我們正在將國防維護、維修和大修 (MRO) 成長率從之前的低兩位數提高到高十幾個百分點。所以實際上，航空航太業的整體強勁勢頭仍在持續。

How about that, Andrew, we've got both of them for you.

怎麼樣，安德魯，我們都為你準備了。

Makes a lot of sense. Thank you so much.

非常有道理。太感謝了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。請繼續回答您的問題。

Maybe just my first question around trying to understand in the industrial businesses, the sort of difference between North America and international. So if we look at the guidance, you've got worse trends in North America organic sales for the year than international. I think the sort of comps are pretty similar in terms of the 2024 performance. And I think in general, people would say there's been a better tone or customer sentiment or what have you, among US-based distributors, at least in the last month or two.

我的第一個問題可能就是想了解工業企業中北美和國際之間的差異。因此，如果我們看一下指導意見，就會發現今年北美有機銷售額的趨勢比國際銷售額更差。我認為，從 2024 年的表現來看，這兩種類型的比較非常相似。我認為，總體而言，人們會說，至少在過去一兩個月裡，美國分銷商的氣氛或客戶情緒有所改善。

So just trying to understand why there is a worse outlook in North America? Is it because you talked about the HVAC and A&D strength on Slide eight, which I think would help North America at least as much as international. And was it just perhaps the greater weighting of North America off-highway and travel that's really hurting it, and that's offsetting whatever better domestic distributor sentiment there is?

那麼，你只是想了解為什麼北美的前景更糟嗎？是不是因為您在第八張幻燈片中談到了 HVAC 和 A&D 的優勢，我認為這對北美的幫助至少與對國際的幫助一樣大。是僅僅是北美非公路用車和旅行車的更大比重才真正對其造成了傷害，並且抵消了國內經銷商更好的情緒？

I think you nailed it. Yes, I think that's exactly it. It's the greater weighting of the industrial business in North America.

我認為你成功了。是的，我認為確實如此。北美工業業務的比重更大。

Yeah. The other thing, Julian, you got to go back a couple of quarters here, but international decline started before the North America decline. So a little bit of this is year-over-year comparisons. It feels like international started a quarter or two before --

是的。另一件事，朱利安，你必須回顧幾個季度前的情況，但國際衰退在北美衰退之前就開始了。這有點像是同比的比較。感覺國際賽提早一、兩個季度就開始了--

A quarter before.

一個季度前。

North America got negative. So I think a little bit of that is just comps.

北美則呈現負面趨勢。因此，我認為這只是一種補償。

Understood. And then just a quick follow-up on the aerospace outlook. I think you mentioned that because of that very difficult comp, the fourth quarter aerospace organic sales are up around mid-single digits. Just when we're thinking about the modeling of that, is it really that military side of things where you may be flattish exiting the year and then you have another sort of quarter of very tough comps, and then you kind of pull out of that at the end of the calendar year on the military side?

明白了。然後我們來快速回顧一下航空航太業的前景。我想您提到過，由於競爭非常艱難，第四季度航空航太有機銷售額成長了約個位數。當我們考慮對此進行建模時，這是否真的是軍事方面的問題？

I don't think it's just military. It's just an overall tough comp because of how strong Q4 was last year. I wouldn't call out anything specific in military.

我認為這不僅僅是軍事問題。由於去年第四季表現強勁，因此總體而言這是一場艱難的比賽。我不會大聲喊出軍事上的任何具體內容。

Yes. I think we are expecting just a gradual recovery on commercial OEM. That might be some of it, if you're modeling, Julian.

是的。我認為我們預計商業 OEM 將逐步復甦。朱利安，如果你是模特兒的話，這可能是其中的一部分。

Great. Thanks very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科（Nigel Coe），沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks, good morning. I'm going to try my pet here a little bit. Just curious, why would HVAC and semi be considered long-cycle orders? Because I think most of us would consider those to be pretty short-cycle book-and-ship types of end market. So just curious why they're long cycle.

謝謝，早安。我要在這裡試試我的寵物。只是好奇，為什麼 HVAC 和半導體會被視為長週期訂單？因為我認為我們大多數人會認為這些是相當短週期的預訂和運輸類型的終端市場。所以只是好奇為什麼它們的週期很長。

And then maybe, Jenny, you talked about the recovery pushing to the right, and I think we've all seen that. Obviously, now we've got ISM getting to 50 orders to turn positive. So it seems like the recovery is forming, but just curious what you're hearing from some of your customers, be it major customers, distribution models, et cetera. How is the tone in the field right now?

然後也許，珍妮，你談到了復甦向右推進，我想我們都看到了這一點。顯然，現在 ISM 訂單量已經達到 50 個，轉為正值。因此看起來復甦正在形成，但我只是好奇您從一些客戶那裡聽到了什麼，無論是主要客戶、分銷模式等等。現在場上的氣氛怎麼樣？

The tone with distribution is very positive. The they're ready for the recovery, and they're expecting the recovery. So they've been bullish for several quarters now. So no change there. If anything, I think as more time goes by, they know it's coming in and they're making sure that they're ready for it.

分佈的基調非常積極。他們已經為復甦做好了準備，並且期待著復甦。因此，他們已經連續幾季保持樂觀。因此沒有變化。不管怎樣，我認為隨著時間的推移，他們知道這件事即將發生，並確保自己已經做好準備。

And the first part of your question again?

您問題的第一部分又是什麼？

Yeah --

是的--

(multiple speakers) Why are we considering those? Nigel, first of all, we get the visibility from an order standpoint those areas. We get that long demand horizon. But these both follow the secular trends that you hear us talk about. And we consider that longer cycle.

（多位發言者）我們為什麼要考慮這些？奈傑爾，首先，我們從順序的角度獲得了這些區域的可見性。我們獲得了長期的需求範圍。但這兩者都遵循了我們談論的長期趨勢。我們認為這個週期更長。

Got it. Okay. And then just a quick one on SG&A. I mean outstanding SG&A management. I think on an underlying basis, SG&A fell from $678 million down to $651 million, so call it 4%, 5% decline there. I know the aero mix is helping there to a degree, but as we recover just the confidence levels on -- you've said (inaudible) margins, so that's very clear. Just how much of that SG&A reduction is structural versus some temporary cost management and that can in on the recovery?

知道了。好的。然後我們再簡單談談銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A)。我指的是優秀的銷售、一般及行政管理 (SG&A) 管理。我認為從根本上講，銷售、一般及行政費用從 6.78 億美元下降到 6.51 億美元，所以可以說下降了 4% 到 5%。我知道空氣動力組合在一定程度上起到了幫助作用，但隨著我們恢復信心水平 - 您說過（聽不清楚）利潤率，所以這非常清楚。銷售、一般及行政費用的減少有多少是結構性的，有多少是臨時成本管理，有多少能對經濟復甦產生影響？

Yes. Nigel, we've always been very focused and frugal when it comes to SG&A. If I had to make a guess, I'd say almost all of it is structural. There will be a increase in aerospace R&D, but that's going to be a ways off and that's going to depend on new programs coming. So we don't see that in the near term. That's not in our guide for the rest of this fiscal year. I don't think you'll see us have a step-up in SG&A cost.

是的。奈傑爾，我們在銷售、一般和行政費用方面一直非常專注和節儉。如果我必須猜測的話，我會說幾乎所有這些都是結構性的。航空航天研發將會增加，但這還有一段距離，並將取決於新專案的實施。因此短期內我們不會看到這種現象。這不在我們的本財年剩餘時間的指南中。我認為你不會看到我們的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 增加。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬‧奧迪亞 (Joe O’Dea)。

Hi, good morning, morning. Along similar lines to some of the other questions, just trying to think through kind of typical cycle relationships in looking at the order chart on Slide seven. And I think over the past couple of quarters, you've expressed confidence that the destock headwinds are really done and that's played out. And so now we start thinking about restock. But when you start to see orders get a little bit better and you think about the distributor tone that's been better, what is that typical lag time between some signs of end-market demand are getting better and then that starts to translate to channel inventory reaction?

嗨，早上好，早安。與其他一些問題類似，只是試圖透過查看第七張投影片上的訂單表來思考典型的循環關係。我認為，在過去幾個季度中，您已經表達了信心，認為去庫存的逆風已經真正結束，而且已經發揮了作用。因此現在我們開始考慮補貨。但是，當您開始看到訂單有所好轉，並且想到分銷商的語氣也變得更好時，終端市場需求好轉的一些跡象與開始轉化為通路庫存反應之間的典型滯後時間是多長？

I don't know that I have a specific time frame that I can call out for you. I think there's just a lot of our distributors that have gotten really good at controlling their cash and keeping a close eye on their inventory levels. So they're waiting for the orders to hit them. There's been a lot of quoting activity, right? So that's why I think they're very bullish on the future and expecting the recovery. But we'll just have to wait and see what happens here. As we've already talked about, we're nearing that point where we're going to cross over the average of when this should recover. So we're all going to be ready.

我不知道我是否有一個可以為您提供的具體時間框架。我認為我們的許多分銷商都非常善於控制現金並密切關注庫存水準。所以他們正在等待命令的下達。有很多引用活動，對嗎？所以我認為，這就是他們對於未來非常樂觀並且期待復甦的原因。但我們只能拭目以待，看看接下來會發生什麼事。正如我們已經討論過的，我們正接近恢復的平均點。所以我們都做好準備。

And then last quarter in the deck, you put some details on mega projects. In our tracking of that data, we did see some delays from '24 and '25. Right now, it would have a pipeline with some pretty strong activity in 2025 across a number of the verticals that you called out last quarter.

然後在最後一個季度，你在簡報中加入了一些有關大型專案的細節。在我們對這些數據的追蹤過程中，我們確實看到了 24 年和 25 年的一些延遲。目前，它將擁有一條管道，並且在 2025 年將涉及您上個季度提到的多個垂直領域開展一些相當強勁的活動。

But just curious in terms of what you see in conversations you're having, I think, general concerns that maybe there's enough nervousness, this stuff continues to push to the right. Anything you're seeing that's starting to sort of pulse -- now things are going to start hitting construction and demand tied to that?

但我只是好奇，就您在談話中看到的情況而言，我認為，普遍的擔憂可能是人們已經足夠緊張，而這種事情會繼續向右推進。您是否看到任何開始出現脈動的現象—現在這些現象將開始影響建築業和與之相關的需求？

No major changes. I mean this is still a growth driver for implant and industrial market especially. And as you know, there's just been a massive amount out there that's been announced. We're going to benefit at every stage. In some cases, some examples I've given in the past about where our distributors are quoting business with local and national contractors, there's still some of that going on. But I would say that some of those projects are being delayed. But whenever we might hear about a delay or a cancellation, the number goes up again. So it's still coming, just hasn't hit yet.

沒有重大變化。我的意思是這仍然是植入物和工業市場的成長動力。正如你所知，我們已經宣布了大量消息。我們將在每個階段受益。在某些情況下，我過去給出的一些關於我們的經銷商與當地和國家承包商報價業務的例子，仍然存在一些這樣的情況。但我想說的是，其中一些項目正在被推遲。但每當我們聽到延誤或取消的消息時，這個數字就會再次上升。所以它仍會出現，只是還沒發生。

Yes, got it. Thank you.

是的，明白了。謝謝。

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝，喬。

Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的妮可‧德布拉斯 (Nicole DeBlase)。

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. So maybe just one on the 3Q outlook. And again, like I have to commend you guys for continued really strong margin performance. But you are modeling segment margins kind of flattish from 2Q to 3Q. And typically, we do see like a bit eventual step-up. So just curious if maybe that's conservatism baked in, maybe something going on from a mix perspective with aerospace. Anything on that?

是的，謝謝。早安.因此，可能只有一個關於第三季的展望。我再次讚揚你們持續保持強勁的獲利表現。但是您建模的分部利潤率從第二季到第三季略顯平緩。通常情況下，我們確實會看到最終的一點進步。所以只是好奇，這是否是根深蒂固的保守主義，也許是從航空航天的混合角度發生的事情。還有什麼事嗎？

You're right. Your math is right, Nicole. I would tell you, 28.2% in Q2 for was an all-time record. Obviously, the aftermarket mix was very, very favorable. We do not have that sort of mix in the guide. So that's a little bit of the flattishness is aerospace is not expected to be as high.

你說得對。你的計算是正確的，妮可。我想告訴你，第二季的 28.2% 創下了歷史新高。顯然，售後市場的組合非常非常有利。我們的指南中沒有這樣的混合。因此，航空航太業的平坦化程度預計不會那麼高。

And then the currency impact really is impacting the international side of the business. So we've got slightly lower than Q2 margins forecasted for the international businesses, but that is really volume and currency-related. If you look at North America, we're actually expanding margins Q3 from Q2.

貨幣影響確實對業務的國際化產生了影響。因此，我們國際業務的第二季利潤率略低於預期，但這實際上與數量和貨幣有關。如果你看看北美，我們第三季的利潤率實際上比第二季有所擴大。

Got it. That's really helpful. And understand the commentary around the long-cycle end markets picking up within orders. Did you guys actually see short cycle kind of stabilize? Did it get worse? Just curious about the short-cycle order trend during the quarter.

知道了。這真的很有幫助。並了解有關長週期終端市場訂單回升的評論。你們確實看過短週期的穩定嗎？有變得更糟嗎？只是好奇本季的短週期訂單趨勢。

I would say, it's the same as it has been. So no real change there, Nicole.

我想說，情況和以前一樣。所以沒有什麼真正的變化，妮可。

Thank you. I'll pass it on.

謝謝。我會傳達的。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Great. Okay. I can't believe this, but we've gotten through the entire queue. I think that might be the first time ever. So this is the conclusion of our FY '25 Q2 earnings release webcast. Jeff Miller, our VP of Investor Relations; and Yan Huo, our Director of Investor Relations, will be available for any follow-ups needed today and tomorrow.

偉大的。好的。我簡直不敢相信，但我們已經排完了整個隊。我認為這可能是有史以來第一次。這就是我們 25 財年第二季財報發佈網路直播的結論。我們的投資者關係副總裁 Jeff Miller；我們的投資者關係總監霍岩將在今天和明天解答任何需要跟進的問題。

And just one last note for everyone on the call, this will be the last time that Yan will be available for follow-ups. We need to congratulate Yan on taking a new role within the company as Group Vice President and Controller for our Motion Systems Group. So Yan, we thank you for all your great work you've done for the company. We will miss you in the Investor Relations space, but we know you're going to be a wonderful addition to the Motion Systems team. So congrats to you.

最後要告訴電話會議中的所有人，這將是 Yan 最後一次接受跟進。我們要祝賀 Yan 在公司內擔任新職務，即集團副總裁兼運動系統集團財務總監。所以 Yan，我們感謝您為公司所做的一切出色工作。我們會在投資者關係領域想念您，但我們知道您將成為運動系統團隊的絕佳補充。恭喜你。

Right.

正確的。

Okay, for everyone else on the call, we appreciate your time and your attention. Thank you for joining us today. I hope everyone has a wonderful afternoon. Thank you.

好的，對於通話中的其他所有人，我們感謝您的時間和關注。感謝您今天加入我們。祝大家有個美好的下午。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your line at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束，您可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與。