百事 (PEP) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PepsiCo's 2023 Second Quarter Earnings Question-and-Answer session. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded and will be archived at www.pepsico.com. It is now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Ravi Pamnani, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Pamnani, you may begin.

早安，歡迎參加百事公司2023年第二季財報問答會。 （操作說明）本次電話會議正在錄音，錄音將存檔於www.pepsico.com。現在，我很榮幸地向大家介紹投資人關係資深副總裁拉維‧帕姆納尼先生。帕姆納尼先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I hope everyone has had a chance this morning to review our press release and prepared remarks, both of which are available on our website.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。希望大家今天早上都有時間查看我們的新聞稿和準備好的發言稿，這兩份文件都可以在我們的網站上找到。

Before we begin, please take note of our cautionary statement. We may make forward-looking statements on today's call, including about our business plans and updated 2023 guidance. Forward-looking statements inherently involve risks and uncertainties and only reflect our view as of today, July 13, and we are under no obligation to update. When discussing our results, we refer to non-GAAP measures, which exclude certain items from reported results. Please refer to our second quarter 2023 earnings release and second quarter 2023 Form 10-Q available on pepsico.com for definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures and additional information regarding our results, including a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from forward-looking statements.

在會議開始之前，請注意我們的警示聲明。我們可能會在今天的電話會議上發表前瞻性聲明，包括關於我們的業務計劃和更新後的2023年業績指引。前瞻性聲明本身涉及風險和不確定性，僅反映我們截至7月13日的觀點，我們沒有義務更新這些聲明。在討論我們的績效時，我們會提及非GAAP指標，這些指標剔除了已公佈績效中的某些項目。有關非GAAP指標的定義和調節表以及關於我們業績的更多信息，包括可能導致實際業績與前瞻性聲明存在重大差異的因素的討論，請參閱我們在pepsico.com網站上發布的2023年第二季度收益報告和2023年第二季度10-Q表格。

Joining me today are PepsiCo's Chairman and CEO, Ramon Laguarta; and PepsiCo's Vice Chairman and CFO, Hugh Johnston. (Operator Instructions). And with that, I will turn it over to the operator for the first question.

今天和我一起接受訪問的是百事公司董事長兼首席執行官拉蒙·拉瓜爾塔先生，以及百事公司副董事長兼首席財務官休·約翰斯頓先生。 （操作員提示）接下來，我將把第一個問題交給操作員。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的布萊恩·斯皮蘭。

So I guess, Ramon, my question is more kind of related just how you're looking at the bigger kind of macro picture in the consumer specifically. I think as we went into this year, there was an expectation that elasticity would increase and there'd be more of a consumer response, I guess, to all the inflation we're seeing really globally. So I guess it seems like in the first half, volumes effectively have been better than expected. So I guess, as we're kind of looking forward in the back half of the year and even into next year, can you just kind of give us a little bit of some insight into how -- what you're seeing with the consumer, what your expectations are? And just how that may have differed from what we were seeing or what you were thinking maybe going into the start of the year?

所以，拉蒙，我的問題其實更著重於您如何看待消費者的宏觀趨勢。今年年初，人們普遍預期消費彈性會上升，消費者對全球通膨的反應也會更加強烈。因此，上半年銷售似乎確實好於預期。那麼，展望下半年甚至明年，您能否分享您對消費者的觀察和預期？而這些預期與我們年初的觀察或預期有何不同？

Yes, Brian. So I'll give you 2 -- there are 2 areas which we're looking at very carefully. One is on the supply side, things like become much better. We've seen much better flow of materials from suppliers. We're seeing, in general, better labor market, and that has helped us to run a better company. So that's one area we're looking at very carefully. During COVID, it was not perfect. It's becoming better, and that's why you will see that our costs are performing better and how we're flowing some of the net revenue down into the bottom line. On the consumer front as well, we were planning the year with more of historical data on elasticities both in developed and developing markets. And we're seeing -- in the majority of the markets where we operate, we're seeing better elasticities.

是的，布萊恩。我給你舉兩個例子——我們正在密切關注兩個方面。一是供應方面，情況已經好轉很多。我們看到供應商的原料供應更加順暢。總體而言，勞動力市場也在改善，這有助於我們更好地經營公司。所以這是我們重點關注的領域之一。疫情期間，情況並非完美。但現在正在好轉，這就是為什麼你會看到我們的成本控制更加有效，以及我們如何將部分淨收入轉化為利潤。在消費者方面，我們在製定年度計劃時更多地參考了已開發市場和發展中市場的歷史彈性數據。我們看到——在我們營運的大多數市場中，彈性都在改善。

And that has continued to be during the first half of the year, even though we're seeing lower income consumers strategizing around, obviously, optimizing their budgets. But we're seeing the majority of consumers staying within our categories, staying within our brands and it's remarkable what our marketing teams are -- commercial teams have been doing to minimize elasticities. In some respect it is what we have been investing for the last few years. Our brands are stronger. The perceived value of our products is better than it was. And obviously, we've been able to raise prices and consumers stay within our brands. Now we're seeing consumers making some adjustments. We're seeing consumers shopping in more stores than before. They're looking for better deals.

今年上半年，這種情況依然持續，儘管我們看到低收入消費者顯然在調整預算以優化消費。但大多數消費者仍選擇我們旗下的品類和品牌，這要歸功於我們行銷團隊和銷售團隊為降低價格彈性所做的努力。從某種程度上說，這正是我們過去幾年一直在投資的方向。我們的品牌實力更強了，產品的感知價值也比以前更高了。顯然，我們能夠提高價格，而消費者仍然選擇我們的品牌。現在，我們看到消費者正在做出一些調整。他們比以前更常光顧不同的商店，他們正在尋找更優惠的價格。

They're starting to look for optimization. They're going to channels that have better perceived value. There are buying more in dollar stores or they're buying more in mass or in clubs. So every segment of the consumer is making adjustments. Overall, we're seeing very positive. And I think it has to do with the levels of unemployment that we're seeing all around the world. Unemployment is very low. In most of the economies, if you think about developed markets, but also developing markets. So markets like Mexico, record low unemployment, some markets in Asia as well. So we're seeing overall very good consumer behavior, especially when it refers to our categories. And that's why we raised guidance on our top line. And because of the first factor, we raised guidance on the second -- on the bottom line as well.

他們開始尋求優化。他們轉向那些感知價值更高的管道。他們更多地在廉價商店、大型超市或會員店購物。因此，每個消費族群都在做調整。總體而言，我們看到了非常積極的趨勢。我認為這與全球範圍內的失業率密切相關。失業率非常低。在大多數經濟體中，無論是已開發市場或發展中市場，失業率都非常低。例如，墨西哥的失業率創歷史新低，亞洲的一些市場也是如此。因此，我們看到整體消費者行為非常好，尤其是在我們關注的類別方面。正因如此，我們提高了營收預期。基於第一個因素，我們也提高了利潤預期。

Our next question comes from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的達拉·莫森尼安。

So maybe could we just extend that question a little bit? You mentioned some of the strength in Mexico. International came in very strong in general in the quarter. Obviously, you have a lot of different countries and regions within that and two distinct businesses. But just high-level thoughts on what drove the international strength, the state of the consumer internationally. And then I'm thinking particularly about the pricing side of things. Obviously, we're sort of cycling tougher comps going forward globally, not just internationally, but can you also give us an update on the competitive environment you're seeing around the world heading into a period when in theory, pricing drops off as we cycle these tougher comps?

那麼，我們能否稍微拓展一下這個問題呢？您提到了墨西哥市場的強勁表現。整體而言，國際市場在本季表現非常強勁。當然，國際市場涵蓋眾多不同的國家和地區，以及兩個不同的商業板塊。但我想請您從宏觀層面分析一下推動國際市場強勁成長的因素，以及國際消費者的消費狀況。此外，我還想特別談談定價方面的問題。顯然，我們未來將在全球範圍內（不僅僅是國際市場）逐步應對更嚴峻的同店銷售競爭，您能否也介紹一下您目前在全球範圍內觀察到的競爭環境？理論上，隨著同店銷售競爭的加劇，價格競爭應該會有所下降。

Yes. Thank you, Dara. There are obviously some markets around the world that are suffering from currency situations. And there, we have to adjust to the reality. And I'm talking about Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Argentina. So there's a subsegment of markets where I would not apply the global rule, and we're acting very specifically in those markets. But beyond those markets overall, we're seeing -- and I think it's because what I was saying earlier, unemployment levels being very low, we're seeing consumers continue to behave in a positive way. Our category penetrations in most of those markets is still relatively low, and we continue to be an affordable treat in those markets. So our products continue to be part of the repertoire that they can afford, and they make trade-offs to stay within our category. So we're seeing that in a very positive way.

是的，謝謝你，達拉。顯然，全球有些市場正受到匯率波動的影響。在這些市場，我們必須適應現實。我指的是土耳其、巴基斯坦、埃及和阿根廷。因此，在這些市場中，我不會採取全球統一的策略，我們會採取非常具體的措施。但總體而言，除了這些市場之外，我們看到——我認為這是因為我之前提到的，失業率非常低——消費者的行為仍然積極。我們在大多數市場的品類滲透率仍然相對較低，我們的產品在這些市場仍然是價格適中的選擇。因此，我們的產品仍然是他們能夠負擔得起的消費選擇之一，他們會在其他方面做出取捨，選擇我們的產品。所以我們看到的情況非常正面。

Now competitive wise, I think there's very rational competition across the world from what I -- from what we can observe in the first half of the year, both in our snacks and our beverage business. And that's what we're assuming in the balance of the year.

就競爭格局而言，我認為從我們上半年觀察到的情況來看，無論是在零食還是飲料業務方面，全球範圍內的競爭都非常理性。我們也預計下半年情況依然如此。

Our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

I have to get a little bit more specific around the innovation activity that you guys have (inaudible).

我需要更具體地了解你們的創新活動（聽不清楚）。

Lauren, we cannot hear you very well. You're breaking up. I don't know if it's our phone or it's -- now it seems to be okay.

勞倫，我們聽不太清楚你的聲音。你的聲音斷斷續續的。我不知道是我們的手機問題還是…現在好像好了。

Is it better a little?

情況好轉一點了嗎？

A little better. Maybe you can call back.

好多了。或許你可以再打個電話。

I will hang up and call back.

我掛斷電話，稍後再打。

Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

All right. I wanted to circle back on your guidance. I just had a question on it. Your new guidance implies, I guess, above algo growth in the second half, but I guess it doesn't really imply much bottom line leverage. So I wanted to understand if there might be some level of conservatism baked in? Or if you're planning on stepping up your reinvestments in the second half? Or if there are any incremental headwinds we should be aware of?

好的。我想再跟您確認一下業績指引。我有個問題。您新的業績指引似乎意味著下半年演算法交易成長將高於預期，但似乎並沒有反映出太多獲利成長。所以我想了解一下，這其中是否包含一定程度的保守策略？還是您計劃在下半年加大再投資力道？或是否有任何需要我們注意的潛在不利因素？

Yes. Great question, Bonnie. It's Hugh. You're right in that the balance or the -- yes, the balance of the year guidance is, in effect, 7.5 revenue, 8.5 EPS, that's the squeeze on the balance of the year. What is implied in the margins are 2 things. Number one, actually continued strong productivity. And if you look at where we are year-to-date, our pricing and our commodities are right in line with each other. So the margin improvement that you saw in the quarter, 132 bps on gross and 45 on net is entirely driven by productivity, which is reflective of the productivity investments that we've made over the last couple of years in things like digitalization and in automation and then leveraging global business services to standardize how we operate.

是的，邦妮，問得好。我是休。你說得對，今年剩餘時間的業績預期實際上是營收7.5，每股收益8.5，這確實對今年剩餘時間造成了壓力。利潤率的變化反映了兩點。第一，生產效率持續強勁成長。如果你看看我們今年迄今為止的業績，我們的定價和原材料價格都處於合理範圍內。因此，你在本季看到的毛利率提升132個基點，淨利率提升45個基點，完全是由生產效率的提高所驅動的，這反映了我們過去幾年在數位化、自動化以及利用全球業務服務來規範營運等方面的生產力投資。

That's actually kind of been a pivot this year. And that's a pivot that I think you'll see ongoing not just in the back half of this year, but actually into '24 and beyond where we're getting margin improvement out of these productivity initiatives. And obviously, the margins are quite good year-to-date, entirely driven by productivity. In the back half, you'll continue to see that level of productivity improvement. If anything, it will accelerate but we are continuing to invest. We're investing in advertising and marketing, and A&M was up 50 bps in the second quarter. You're going to continue to see us invest in A&M.

實際上，這算是今年的轉捩點。而我認為，這種轉捩點不僅會在今年下半年持續，還會延續到2024年及以後，因為我們正透過這些提高生產力的措施來提升利潤率。顯然，今年迄今的利潤率相當不錯，這完全得益於生產力的提升。下半年，你會看到生產力持續提升。如果有什麼改變的話，那就是提升速度會加快，但我們仍在繼續投資。我們在廣告和行銷方面投入了大量資金，第二季廣告和行銷支出成長了50個基點。你會看到我們繼續加大對廣告和行銷的投入。

You're going to continue to see us invest in capabilities. And our investment cycles tend to be more back-half oriented than they are front-half oriented when we have a sense as to how the year is going to turn out. So that's what you're seeing in the implied guidance in the balance of the year. It's not that the productivity is going to diminish, it's not that anything is going on with the pricing other than the overlap effects of pricing. It's really a reflection of some of the productivity being reinvested in the back half of the year, so that we continue that strong momentum into '24 and beyond.

我們將繼續加大對自身能力的投資。而且，當我們對全年的業績走向有一定預期時，我們的投資週期往往更側重於下半年而非上半年。因此，您在下半年業績指引中看到的正是這一點。這並非意味著生產效率會下降，也不是定價策略除了價格的重疊效應之外發生了其他變化。這其實反映了我們將部分生產效率提升的成果重新投入到下半年的研發中，以期將強勁的成長動能延續到2024年及以後。

Our next question comes from Vivien Azer with TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 公司的 Vivien Azer。

I was looking to actually follow up on Bonnie's question, but just to drill down on PBNA margins, down a little bit year-over-year. In your prepared remarks, you reiterated your confidence in expanding margins on a full year basis. I was hoping you could just expand on some of the headwinds that you saw in the quarter and what gives you confidence on the full year margin outlook for the segment specifically?

我原本想就邦妮的問題做進一步探討，特別是關於PBNA利潤率較去年同期略有下降的情況。您在事先準備好的演講稿中重申了您對全年利潤率成長的信心。我希望您能詳細說明本季遇到的不利因素，以及您對該業務部門全年利潤率前景的信心來源。

Yes. Vivien, it's Hugh. The margins in PBNA was down in the second quarter. We had a big gain on an asset transaction in 2022. We're cycling over that transaction in '23. And for the full year on PBNA, you'll see the margins up in a healthy way and north of 100 basis points.

是的，薇薇安，我是休。 PBNA第二季的利潤率有所下降。我們在2022年的一筆資產交易中獲得了豐厚的收益。我們將在2023年完成這筆交易的結算。 PBNA全年的利潤率將會穩定提升，超過100個基點。

Your next question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

Is this better, hopefully?

這樣好些了嗎？

Much better.

好多了。

It is.

這是。

Much better.

好多了。

I'm still sitting in the same place. Okay. I'm really Sorry about that. I was going to ask about Gatorade. So tons of innovation activity, you guys have talked about it. We're seeing it very much in the marketplace. And in the release, you talked about Gatorade being up double digits in the quarter. But when we look at Nielsen, it shows something that significantly trails that. And so I was just curious, I guess, about mix of -- on track, how much of maybe some of the performance you're seeing has to do with incremental shelf space and distribution given the breadth of innovation and new product activity there has been?

我還坐在原地。好的。真的很抱歉。我本來想問佳得樂的事。你們之前也提到過大量的創新活動，我們在市場上也確實看到了這些創新。在新聞稿中，你們提到佳得樂本季的銷量實現了兩位數的成長。但是我們查看尼爾森的數據，發現實際銷售量遠低於這個數字。所以我想問的是，考慮到如此廣泛的創新和新產品活動，你們看到的銷售成長有多少是由於貨架空間和分銷管道的拓展造成的？

Yes, Lauren, I think the -- I think there are a couple of factors. The G2 DSD has a meaningful impact on timing on when we reflect our sales and when the consumer actually buys compared to previous years. So we're much -- the cycle has reduced substantially, given our DSD model and that might have some implications on the readings. We feel good about the sports category even though it has been cold in some parts of the country for the month of June and so on. But in general, within the categories continues to have healthy metrics in terms of penetration and usage and everything else. Our innovation G Fit, Gatorlyte and most importantly for us, long term, our powders and tablets is going very, very well. So we believe in those subsegments, continue to develop along with G Zero which continues to attract new consumers to the category.

是的，勞倫，我認為——我認為這其中有幾個因素。 G2 DSD（直接送貨上門）模式對我們反映銷售情況的時間以及消費者實際購買的時間（與往年相比）有著顯著的影響。因此，鑑於我們的 DSD 模式，銷售週期已大幅縮短，這可能會對數據產生一些影響。儘管六月美國部分地區天氣寒冷，但我們對運動營養類別仍充滿信心。整體而言，該品類在滲透率、使用率以及其他方面都保持著良好的指標。我們的創新產品 G Fit、Gatorlyte，以及對我們來說最重要的長期產品——我們的粉劑和片劑——都表現得非常出色。因此，我們相信這些細分市場將持續發展，同時 G Zero 也持續吸引新消費者加入這一品類。

So we feel good. We're seeing all the execution metrics for Gatorade improving. So inventory on display, service levels to our customers, which were a little bit handicapped in the past due to supply chain issues. So we're seeing the health of the brand and the category at a pretty good level. It is true that there are some new entrants in the category like Prime that have been taking some space, especially with younger audiences. They've been affecting Gatorade, but they've been affecting more of some other brands in the category that had that kind of profile. So we feel good about the execution. We feel good about how the brand is performing. We've increased advertising substantially against Gatorade and we'll continue to do so in the back end of the summer and the year. So we feel good about Gatorade. And I think the G2 DSD is going to be a structural move that will give us better execution and capacity to respond to weather changes and opportunities in the marketplace going forward.

所以我們感覺不錯。佳得樂的各項執行指標都在改善，包括庫存展示、客戶服務水準（過去由於供應鏈問題，客戶服務水準曾受到一定影響）。因此，我們看到佳得樂品牌和整個品類的健康狀況都相當不錯。誠然，像Prime這樣的新品牌已經佔據了部分市場份額，尤其是在年輕消費者群體中。它們對佳得樂造成了一定影響，但對其他一些具有類似目標受眾的品牌影響更大。所以我們對執行情況和品牌表現都感到滿意。我們大幅增加了針對佳得樂的廣告投放，並將在夏季末和年底繼續加大投入。因此，我們對佳得樂充滿信心。我認為G2 DSD（直接送到府上）將是一項結構性舉措，它將提升我們的執行力，並增強我們應對未來市場變化和機會的能力。

Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So my question is more on the balance of pricing and volumes. Obviously, you're lapping some of the most strong price increases from last year. And you're expecting, I would say -- are you expecting still high single digits in the second half with volumes more flattish or it's still negative? Because to get to the math of 10%, perhaps you're lapping Russia, but it seems that the U.K. and France and Spain have lagged a bit for the top line. So I'm trying to reconcile the implied organic 7.5-ish with better volumes. So in other words, you are seeing some improvement there as pricing kind of resolves for the consumer? How we should be thinking to Ramon's comment on some of the discounters and that happening? Or are you still seeing room for continued pricing, but to a lesser extent, as you mentioned, at CNBC interview?

所以我的問題更多是關於價格和銷售的平衡。顯然，你們已經趕上了去年最強勁的價格漲幅。我想問的是，你們預計下半年銷售會保持平穩還是下滑，同時還能維持接近兩位數的成長率嗎？因為要達到10%的成長率，你們或許已經超過了俄羅斯，但英國、法國和西班牙的營收似乎略顯落後。所以我試著將隱含的7.5%左右的有機成長率與銷售成長連結起來。換句話說，你們是否看到隨著消費者對價格的接受度提高，情況有所改善？我們應該如何看待拉蒙關於一些折扣店的評論以及這種情況？或者，正如您在CNBC採訪中提到的，您是否仍然認為價格還有上漲的空間，但幅度會有所減少？

Go ahead, Ramon.

請繼續，拉蒙。

Yes. No, we can have Hugh continue the CNBC interview.

是的。不，我們可以讓休繼續接受CNBC的訪問。

Andrea, so [balance year] revenue, the squeeze is 7.5%. What I think we're going to see is volumes will be sort of in the flattish range for the balance of the year. Obviously, there's still carryover pricing. And I don't think we'll do anything different than our normal cycles on pricing in the balance of the year. You tend to see pricing in the beverage business in the fourth quarter. Frito tends not to go in the balance of the year, but that's TBD. We'll see how the year plays out. But the implication that we have in the forecast right now is kind of back to our relatively more normal pricing. And obviously, that sets us up for '24. I mean a lot of ways to think about it as the back half of the year is a little bit ahead of our long-term guidance, which I think is the momentum that we'll carry forward.

安德里亞，所以（本年度剩餘時間）營收，壓縮幅度為7.5%。我認為我們會看到銷量在今年剩餘時間內將保持穩定。顯然，價格仍會受到去年同期的影響。我認為我們今年剩餘時間的定價不會有任何變化，不會偏離正常的週期。飲料業的定價通常在第四季度進行。菲多利通常不會在下半年進行定價，但這還有待觀察。我們會看看今年的情況如何。但就我們目前的預測而言，這意味著價格將回歸相對正常的水平。顯然，這為2024年奠定了基礎。我的意思是，從很多方面來看，下半年的業績略高於我們的長期預期，我認為我們將保持這種成長勢頭。

Our next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國證券的克里斯凱裡。

Hugh, just one quick follow-up on the gross margin. You said that the pricing tailwinds year-to-date are basically in line or offsetting inflation. I couldn't tell if you said commodity inflation. I guess what I see is about 600 basis point benefit from pricing and a 400 basis point headwind from commodity inflation. So it seems like you're actually tracking ahead. But when you made that comment, was that a total inflation comment or is there a mix tailwind as well? So maybe price is actually below what we can see in price mix. So I just wanted to clarify that. And I guess connected is just in the context of full year gross margin, unless there's some offsets, it seems like you could see some notable expansion for the full year. Am I reading that wrong? That's going to allow you to invest? Or are there some offsets I'm not thinking about?

休，關於毛利率，我還有一個問題想跟進。你提到今年迄今為止的價格利好因素基本上與通膨持平或抵消了通膨。我不確定你是不是也提到了大宗商品通膨。我理解的是，價格利好因素帶來了大約 600 個基點的利好，而大宗商品通膨帶來了大約 400 個基點的阻力。所以看起來你們的業績其實有成長。但是，你剛才說的利多因素是指整體通膨，還是也包括了其他因素？也就是說，價格因素的實際影響可能低於我們從價格組成中看到的。所以我想確認一下。另外，我理解的「相關」是指全年毛利率，除非有一些抵銷因素，否則全年毛利率可能會有顯著成長。我的理解有誤嗎？這是否意味著你們可以進行投資？還是說我忽略了一些抵銷因素？

Yes. Chris, it's Hugh. So what I had said was pricing was up exactly in line with our commodity inflation. So both are in the teens and the numbers are basically identical. So that obviously is not driving margin improvement because those 2 are essentially offsetting each other. In terms of the balance of the year margins, we have previously communicated, we'd be at least equal with where we were last year. We're now clearly going to be ahead of where we were last year. So margins will improve this year as opposed to the at least equal that we had previously communicated. And the driver, of course, behind that is productivity.

是的，克里斯，我是休。我之前說過，價格上漲與大宗商品通膨率完全一致。兩者都在十幾個百分點，數字基本上相同。顯然，這並沒有推動利潤率的提高，因為這兩者基本上相互抵消了。至於今年剩餘時間的利潤率，我們之前說過至少會與去年持平。現在看來，我們顯然會超過去年。所以今年的利潤率將會提高，而不是像之前所說的至少與去年持平。當然，這背後的驅動因素是生產效率的提升。

And the things that I've been talking about and Ramon has been talking about for a while, we've made these investments in digitalization. We've made these investments in automation. We've been investing in building out a global business services operation. And I think that's the pivot that you see happening inside of our numbers right now, is that the margins will improve, I think, on a sustained basis. And it will be driven by productivity, and that productivity will come out of those 3 buckets. So I don't think this is a 1 or 2 quarter thing. I think you're going to see margins continue to steadily improve this year and into the coming years.

我和拉蒙之前一直在強調的，我們已經在數位化、自動化和全球業務服務營運方面進行了投資。我認為，目前我們財務數據中正在發生的轉變，就是利潤率將會持續提升。而這主要得益於生產力的提高，生產力的提升將來自這三大領域。所以我認為這並非一、兩個季度就能實現的。我認為今年乃至未來幾年，利潤率都將持續穩定提升。

Our next question comes from Peter Grom with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的彼得‧葛羅姆。

So I was hoping to get some updated thoughts on the CELSIUS agreement and kind of what you've learned over the past several months. Obviously, the growth has been tremendous. But how has that outsized growth or better-than-expected share performance shifted your view as to whether this is the right structure for PepsiCo longer term? And then just having previously distributed Bang and kind of given the Bang and Monster news, do you have any updated thoughts as to whether this could impact the growth trajectory for CELSIUS looking ahead?

所以，我希望了解您對CELSIUS協議的最新看法，以及您在過去幾個月中了解到的情況。顯然，成長非常顯著。但是，這種超乎預期的成長或超出預期的股價表現，是否改變了您對這種結構是否適合百事公司長期發展的看法？此外，鑑於您之前分銷過Bang，以及Bang和Monster的相關消息，您對這些訊息是否會影響CELSIUS未來的成長軌跡有何新的看法？

Yes. I think there's a couple of realizations on this. But number one is that the power of our distribution system, our DSD machine in the U.S. is very powerful. And obviously, you can see by the increase in the numerical distribution and the quality of execution. So that's one element that makes us feel very strong about our capabilities in the U.S. Beverages. Second, I think CELSIUS is a brand that is capturing new consumers to the energy category, consumers that were not consuming energy drinks for many reasons in the past, flavor or image or some other elements. That is a positive. The category keeps expanding, and we're glad that that's in our portfolio. And we're working together with CELSIUS to see additional international opportunities, whether we can expand the brand in some other markets, especially more developed markets where the category is a bit more developed. Those are the 3 conclusions that we're taking from our relationship so far.

是的。我認為對此有幾點認知。首先，我們在美國擁有強大的經銷系統，尤其是直接送貨上門（DSD）模式。這一點從分銷數量的成長和執行品質的提升就能明顯看出。因此，我們對自身在美國飲料市場的能力充滿信心。其次，我認為CELSIUS品牌正在吸引新的消費者進入能量飲料市場，這些消費者過去因各種原因（例如口味、形像或其他因素）並未飲用能量飲料。這是一個正面的信號。能量飲料市場持續成長，我們很高興能將它納入我們的產品組合。我們正與CELSIUS合作，探索更多國際市場機遇，例如能否將品牌拓展到其他市場，尤其是在那些能量飲料市場發展較成熟的市場。以上是我們目前從雙方合作中得出的三點結論。

Right. And the only thing I'd add is we're very happy with the investment we've made, and we feel very comfortable where we are with that company right now. I think we're both benefiting from each other's capabilities.

沒錯。我唯一要補充的是，我們對目前的投資非常滿意，也對現在與這家公司的合作現狀感到非常放心。我認為我們雙方都從彼此的能力中受益。

Our next question comes from Robert Ottenstein with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Robert Ottenstein。

Congratulations on another terrific quarter. I'm wondering if we could focus on air, we haven't spent that much time talking about in the past but is really doing well, and that's Europe. And maybe perhaps parse out for us, remind us the business mix in Europe between snacks and beverages. And then talk a little bit about how the business is doing so well, very significant pricing. I know you had relatively easy comps. And whether you think that there are structural long-term changes in the pricing dynamics in Europe? I mean, for many years, Europe was very deflationary and extremely tough retail. I'm sure a lot of that persists, but are there clues here that maybe there are structural changes in that environment that can go forward?

恭喜你們又一個季度業績斐然。我想請你們重點談談空氣飲料業務，過去我們討論得不多，但它在歐洲市場表現非常出色。能否請你們梳理一下，回顧一下你們在歐洲的零食和飲料業務組成？然後談談你們業務如此成功的原因，尤其是價格策略。我知道你們今年的同店銷售額相對較低。你們認為歐洲的定價機制是否有長期的結構性變化？我的意思是，多年來，歐洲一直處於通貨緊縮狀態，零售業競爭異常激烈。我相信很多問題仍然存在，但歐洲市場是否存在一些跡象表明，未來可能會出現結構性變化？

Yes. Thank you. Yes, good diagnostic, the fact that our European business clearly has had a terrific first half of the year, and we're expecting that to continue in the second half. A couple of elements. I think we have a portfolio that is quite robust on the snack side. We have very good market positions in snacks. And we have good challenging positions in beverages and our Zero propositions in Europe are growing very fast, and they're taking market share in some of the more affluent markets in Europe. So good portfolio mix and good focus by the team on growing that portfolio. As you said, we were a little bit late to pricing last year, in '22. And the team has been courageous and has been able to find win-win solutions with our customers in '23.

是的，謝謝。是的，診斷很準確，我們的歐洲業務上半年表現非常出色，我們預計下半年也會保持這種勢頭。有幾個因素。我認為我們在零食領域的產品組合相當穩健。我們在零食市場佔有非常有利的地位。我們在飲料領域也擁有極具競爭力的地位，而且我們在歐洲的零糖產品成長非常迅速，正在歐洲一些較富裕的市場中搶佔市場份額。所以，產品組合結構合理，團隊也專注於發展該產品組合。正如您所說，我們在2022年的定價策略上稍微落後。但團隊展現出了勇氣，並在2023年與客戶找到了雙贏的解決方案。

So as you see from the numbers, good pricing levels, but what is also very remarkable in Europe is the levels of productivity that the team has been executing through simplification of the business and everything else that Hugh was saying about digitalization and automation and also moving some service to essential points that we can service the businesses more effectively, more efficiently. So good work by the European team, both on portfolio managed simplification and then in driving productivity. So we feel good about Europe. We have a very strong business in both Central Europe, Eastern Europe and parts of the economy that are growing faster. So we feel good about the portfolio composition and the business going forward.

正如您從數據中看到的，定價水平良好。但歐洲團隊透過簡化業務流程以及Hugh提到的數位化和自動化等舉措，顯著提高了生產力，並將部分服務轉移到關鍵節點，從而更有效率地服務企業。歐洲團隊在投資組合管理簡化和提升生產力方面都表現出色。因此，我們對歐洲市場充滿信心。我們在中歐、東歐以及經濟成長較快的地區都擁有非常強勁的業務。我們對目前的投資組合組成和未來的業務發展充滿信心。

Our next question comes from Stephen Powers with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂芬·鮑爾斯。

Hugh, maybe putting a final bow around Bryan's original top line question. I guess, Hugh, the volume cadence that you implied a little earlier, down 2% or so in the first half based on results reported to date, and if I heard you correctly, flattish in the second half. How does that compare with your outlook coming into the year? Because I guess, just stepping back, I'm trying to get a better sense of whether the 4 points of upside you now see in organic growth versus that February forecast is more driven by better volumes or whether the upside is really driven by greater-than-expected price mix realization or whether it's some kind of combination?

休，或許可以就布萊恩最初提出的核心問題做個總結。休，我猜你之前提到的銷售走勢，根據目前公佈的業績，上半年下降了2%左右，如果我沒理解錯的話，下半年基本上持平。這和你年初的預期相比如何？因為我想更清楚地了解，你現在看到的有機成長比二月份的預測高出4個百分點，這主要是銷量成長帶來的，還是價格組合實現超出預期帶來的，抑或是兩者兼而有之？

Steve, it's a combination. Volumes are certainly a bit better than we expected and price realization is a little better than we expected as well. So it's a combo. It's not dominant one or the other.

史蒂夫，這是綜合因素造成的。銷售量確實比我們預期的要好一些，價格實現率也比我們預期的要好一些。所以是綜合因素造成的，兩者之間沒有哪一方面占主導地位。

Yes. And I would say the commercial teams have done a great job in minimizing elasticity. So going into the year, of course, we were assuming a level of elasticity that was more based on historical levels. I think we've been positively surprised on the strength of the brands in some markets. And obviously, as I said earlier, the consequence of the investment we've been making. But the way the teams have executed innovation, have executed range expansion, multiple displays around the store and some of the tactics we normally use to drive volume and minimize elasticities have been really well executed. I think we link it as well to as being a more intelligent company in a broader sense, having better data, having better digitalization and execution capabilities. So it is all connected. And yes, we feel good about how the business performed in that respect versus what we had initially planned.

是的。我認為銷售團隊在降低彈性方面做得非常出色。當然，年初的時候，我們假設的彈性水準更接近歷史水準。我認為，某些市場品牌的強勁表現讓我們感到驚喜。正如我之前所說，這顯然得益於我們持續的投資。團隊在創新、產品線拓展、店內多處陳列以及我們通常用於提升銷量和降低彈性的一些策略方面都執行得非常出色。我認為這與我們公司整體的智慧化程度密切相關，我們擁有更完善的數據、更強大的數位化和執行能力。所以這一切都是相互關聯的。是的，我們對公司在這方面的表現感到滿意，遠遠超出我們最初的預期。

Our next question comes from Filippo Falorni with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的菲利波·法洛尼。

A quick question on Frito-Lay North America. Clearly, very strong results in the quarter. But over the last couple of weeks, we have seen a bit of a slowdown in track channels. So the first question is, what do you think is driving the recent slowdown? Partly it's obviously cycling high price realization, but also just general sense on what you're seeing from a volume standpoint. And then also why are you seeing untracked channels in that business?

關於菲多利北美公司，我有個問題想請教一下。顯然，本季業績非常強勁。但在過去幾週，我們看到軌道通路的銷售放緩。所以第一個問題是，您認為近期放緩的原因是什麼？部分原因顯然是價格週期性上漲，但也與您從銷售角度觀察到的整體情況有關。另外，您為什麼看到非軌道通路的銷售也在放緩？

Yes, Frito-Lay is having a tremendous year again on top of a very good '22. And it's been driven by our large brands performing very well, linking to what I said earlier about very strong brand programs and commercial programs. The away-from-home business and the small store independent business where there is a lot of impulse consumption is not really reflected normally by a lot of the reports that you've probably seen. So that might be a gap there. And obviously, in the summer, this is very relevant as people move around more. But we're seeing -- the only thing we're seeing in Frito-Lay in the last few weeks is the lapping versus the [P6] price increase we did last year. So that's the only element. Everything else, we're seeing a much better supply chain. So our service levels to our key customers is improving a lot. That's good news because we were a little bit handicapped in the last year and first half of this year. We're seeing much broader portfolio.

是的，菲多利今年的業績仍然非常出色，延續了2022年的良好勢頭。這主要得益於我們旗下各大品牌的強勁表現，也與我之前提到的強大的品牌推廣和商業計劃密切相關。許多報告可能並未真正反映出家庭以外的消費管道和小型獨立商店的衝動性消費，這可能是一個資訊缺口。顯然，夏季人們出行增多，這一點尤其重要。但就菲多利而言，過去幾週唯一的變化就是我們去年對[P6]產品進行了價格調整。除此之外，我們看到供應鏈狀況顯著改善，對主要客戶的服務水準也大幅提升。這無疑是個好消息，因為去年和今年上半年我們都受到了一些限制。現在，我們的產品組合更加豐富了。

So the smaller SKUs that drive -- we know they drive frequency and they drive penetration in some sub-consumers. So we're seeing a lot of positive trends, some of our innovation. If you think about minis or if you think about some of the new launches like the jerky product or our relaunch of the nuts and seeds, our permissible portfolio, they're really doing very well along with our big brands. So we feel good about the portfolio composition and the continued executional capabilities of Frito to drive availability universally almost. So we're feeling good about the business.

所以，那些小包裝的SKU──我們知道它們能提高購買頻率，也能提高某些細分消費群體的滲透率。因此，我們看到了很多積極的趨勢，包括我們的一些創新。想想迷你裝，或想想一些新推出的產品，例如肉乾產品，或是我們重新推出的堅果和種子系列，以及我們的合法產品組合，它們和我們的大品牌一樣，都表現得非常出色。因此，我們對產品組合的組成以及菲多利持續的執行能力感到滿意，相信我們能夠實現幾乎所有通路的覆蓋。所以我們對業務前景充滿信心。

Our last question comes from Gerald Pascarelli with Wedbush Securities.

最後一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Gerald Pascarelli。

Mine is also on energy drinks, specifically regarding near-term distribution opportunities. You've obviously been a great partner for CELSIUS since you took over distribution of their products, which has been readily apparent in measured channels. But looking forward, how do you think about the opportunity to penetrate some of the non-measured channels that have yet to scratch the surface, specifically related to food service, like college campuses as an example? And is the comprehensive rollout of these products something we should expect in the back half of this year? Or is that more of a 2024 opportunity? I guess any incremental color you could provide on timing and then the potential halo effect that CELSIUS could have on your legacy portfolio of energy products would be helpful?

我的問題也與能量飲料有關，特別是關於近期分銷機會。自從您接手 CELSIUS 的產品分銷以來，您顯然一直是他們優秀的合作夥伴，這一點在已衡量的管道中顯而易見。展望未來，您如何看待滲透一些尚未開發的、未被衡量的管道的機會，特別是與餐飲服務相關的管道，例如大學校園？這些產品的全面推廣預計在今年下半年實現嗎？還是說要等到 2024 年？如果您能就時間安排提供一些補充信息，以及 CELSIUS 可能對您現有能量飲料產品組合產生的潛在積極影響，那就太好了。

Yes. Listen, we take our energy products along with the rest of the portfolio where it makes sense, right? So some of the channels you're mentioning like college universities, they are very large channels for our energy execution, right? So when you go to a normal campus, you will see a ROCKSTAR, you would see CELSIUS, you will see our coffee business. You will see the new Gatorade energy Fast Twitch. So you will see all these executions. Wherever there are consumers that are looking for energy, we tend to be there. So we're not holding on any opportunities at this point to maximize the reach of our brands. So no, don't wait for '24, we're executing as we speak.

是的。聽著，我們會把能量產品和其他產品組合一起，在適當的地方推廣，對吧？你提到的一些管道，例如大學校園，是我們能量產品推廣的重要管道，對吧？所以，你去任何一個大學校園，都會看到 ROCKSTAR、CELSIUS，還有我們的咖啡事業。你還會看到新款佳得樂能量飲料 Fast Twitch。你會看到所有這些產品。只要有消費者在尋找能量產品，我們就會在那裡。所以，我們現在不會放過任何機會，要盡可能擴大我們品牌的覆蓋範圍。所以，別等到 2024 年，我們現在就在行動。

Great. So I think this is the end of the conversation. Thank you very much. Thank you all of you for joining us today and especially for the confidence that you've placed in us with your investments. We hope that you all have a great summer, and stay safe and healthy. Thank you.

好的。我想今天的談話就到此結束了。非常感謝。感謝各位今天參與我們的活動，特別感謝各位對我們的信任與投資。祝大家有個美好的夏天，注意安全，保持健康。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的演講到此結束。您可以斷開連接，祝您有美好的一天。