百事 (PEP) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PepsiCo's 2023 Second Quarter Earnings Question-and-Answer session. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded and will be archived at www.pepsico.com. It is now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Ravi Pamnani, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Pamnani, you may begin.

早上好，歡迎參加百事公司 2023 年第二季度盈利問答會。 （操作員說明）今天的通話正在錄音並將存檔在 www.pepsico.com 上。現在我很高興向大家介紹投資者關係高級副總裁 Ravi Pamnani 先生。帕姆納尼先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I hope everyone has had a chance this morning to review our press release and prepared remarks, both of which are available on our website.

謝謝接線員，大家早上好。我希望今天早上每個人都有機會閱讀我們的新聞稿和準備好的評論，這兩者都可以在我們的網站上找到。

Before we begin, please take note of our cautionary statement. We may make forward-looking statements on today's call, including about our business plans and updated 2023 guidance. Forward-looking statements inherently involve risks and uncertainties and only reflect our view as of today, July 13, and we are under no obligation to update. When discussing our results, we refer to non-GAAP measures, which exclude certain items from reported results. Please refer to our second quarter 2023 earnings release and second quarter 2023 Form 10-Q available on pepsico.com for definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures and additional information regarding our results, including a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，請注意我們的警告聲明。我們可能會在今天的電話會議上發表前瞻性聲明，包括我們的業務計劃和更新的 2023 年指導。前瞻性陳述本質上涉及風險和不確定性，僅反映我們截至今天 7 月 13 日的觀點，我們沒有義務更新。在討論我們的結果時，我們指的是非公認會計準則衡量標準，這些衡量標準從報告的結果中排除了某些項目。請參閱 pepsico.com 上提供的 2023 年第二季度收益發布和 2023 年第二季度 10-Q 表格，了解非 GAAP 指標的定義和調節以及有關我們結果的其他信息，包括對可能導致實際結果產生重大影響的因素的討論。與前瞻性陳述不同。

Joining me today are PepsiCo's Chairman and CEO, Ramon Laguarta; and PepsiCo's Vice Chairman and CFO, Hugh Johnston. (Operator Instructions). And with that, I will turn it over to the operator for the first question.

今天和我一起出席的是百事可樂公司董事長兼首席執行官拉蒙·拉瓜塔 (Ramon Laguarta)；以及百事公司副董事長兼首席財務官休·約翰斯頓。 （操作員說明）。就這樣，我將把第一個問題交給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

So I guess, Ramon, my question is more kind of related just how you're looking at the bigger kind of macro picture in the consumer specifically. I think as we went into this year, there was an expectation that elasticity would increase and there'd be more of a consumer response, I guess, to all the inflation we're seeing really globally. So I guess it seems like in the first half, volumes effectively have been better than expected. So I guess, as we're kind of looking forward in the back half of the year and even into next year, can you just kind of give us a little bit of some insight into how -- what you're seeing with the consumer? What your expectations are? And just how that may have differed from what we were seeing or what you were thinking maybe going into the start of the year?

所以我想，拉蒙，我的問題更多的是與你如何看待消費者的宏觀情況有關。我認為，當我們進入今年時，人們預計彈性將會增加，並且我想消費者會對我們在全球範圍內看到的所有通貨膨脹做出更多反應。所以我想上半年的銷量實際上比預期要好。所以我想，由於我們對今年下半年甚至明年充滿期待，您能否給我們一些關於您在消費者中看到的情況的一些見解？ ？你的期望是什麼？這與我們所看到的或您在今年年初的想法可能有何不同？

Yes, Brian. So I'll give you 2 -- there are 2 areas which we're looking at very carefully. One is on the supply side, things like become much better. We've seen much better flow of materials from suppliers. We're seeing, in general, better labor market, and that has helped us to run a better company. So that's one area we're looking at very carefully. During COVID, it was not perfect. It's becoming better, and that's why you will see that our costs are performing better and how we're flowing some of the net revenue down into the bottom line. On the consumer front as well, we were planning the year with more of historical data on elasticities both in developed and developing markets. And we're seeing -- in the majority of the markets where we operate, we're seeing better elasticities.

是的，布萊恩。所以我會給你兩個——我們正在非常仔細地研究兩個領域。一是在供應方面，事情變得更好了。我們看到供應商的材料流動明顯改善。總的來說，我們看到了更好的勞動力市場，這有助於我們經營一家更好的公司。所以這是我們正在非常仔細地研究的一個領域。在新冠疫情期間，它並不完美。它正在變得更好，這就是為什麼你會看到我們的成本表現更好，以及我們如何將一些淨收入流入底線。在消費者方面，我們也計劃利用更多有關發達市場和發展中市場彈性的歷史數據來規劃這一年。我們看到，在我們經營的大多數市場中，我們看到了更好的彈性。

And that has continued to be during the first half of the year, even though we're seeing lower income consumers strategizing around, obviously, optimizing their budgets. But we're seeing the majority of consumers staying within our categories, staying within our brands and it's remarkable what our marketing teams are, commercial teams have been doing to minimize elasticity. In some respect it is what we have been investing for the last few years. Our brands are stronger. The perceived value of our products is better than it was. And obviously, we've been able to raise prices and consumers stay within our brands. Now we're seeing consumers making some adjustments. We're seeing consumers shopping in more stores than before. They're looking for better deals.

儘管我們看到低收入消費者顯然正在製定優化預算的策略，但這種情況在今年上半年仍然存在。但我們看到大多數消費者仍停留在我們的品類、停留在我們的品牌內，我們的營銷團隊和商業團隊一直在努力將彈性降到最低，這一點是值得注意的。從某些方面來說，這就是我們過去幾年一直在投資的東西。我們的品牌更強大。我們產品的感知價值比以前更好。顯然，我們已經能夠提高價格，讓消費者留在我們的品牌中。現在我們看到消費者正在做出一些調整。我們看到消費者在比以前更多的商店購物。他們正在尋找更好的交易。

They're starting to look for optimization. They're going to channels that have better perceived value. There are buying more in Dollar stores or they buy more in mass or in clubs. So every segment of the consumer is making adjustment. Overall, we're seeing very positive. And I think it has to do with the levels of unemployment that we're seeing all around the world. Unemployment is very low. In most of the economies, if you think about developed markets, but also developing markets. So markets like Mexico, record low unemployment, some markets in Asia as well. So we're seeing overall very good consumer behavior, especially when it refers to our categories. And that's why we raised guidance on our top line. And because of the first factor, we raised guidance on the second -- on the bottom line as well.

他們開始尋求優化。他們會選擇具有更好感知價值的渠道。人們在一元店購買更多，或者在大眾或俱樂部購買更多。所以各個階層的消費者都在做出調整。總體而言，我們看到的情況非常積極。我認為這與我們在世界各地看到的失業率水平有關。失業率非常低。在大多數經濟體中，如果考慮發達市場，也會考慮發展中市場。因此，墨西哥等市場的失業率創歷史新低，亞洲的一些市場也是如此。因此，我們看到總體上非常好的消費者行為，特別是當它涉及我們的類別時。這就是我們提高營收指引的原因。由於第一個因素，我們提高了對第二個因素的指導，即利潤。

Our next question comes from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So maybe can we just extend that question a little bit. You mentioned some of the strength in Mexico. International came in very strong in general in the quarter. Obviously, you have a lot of different countries and regions within that and two distinct businesses. But just high-level thoughts on what drove the international strength, the state of the consumer internationally. And then I'm thinking particularly about the pricing side of things. Obviously, we're sort of cycling tougher comps going forward globally, not just internationally, but can you also give us an update on the competitive environment you're seeing around the world heading into a period when in theory, pricing drops off as we cycle these tougher comps?

也許我們可以稍微擴展一下這個問題。你提到了墨西哥的一些實力。本季度國際市場總體表現非常強勁。顯然，其中有許多不同的國家和地區以及兩個不同的業務。但這只是關於推動國際實力、國際消費者狀況的高層思考。然後我特別考慮定價方面的問題。顯然，我們在全球範圍內，不僅僅是在國際上，正在採取更艱難的競爭，但您能否向我們介紹一下您在世界各地看到的競爭環境的最新情況，理論上，價格會隨著我們的下降而下降。循環這些更艱難的比賽？

Yes. Thank you, Dara. There are obviously some markets around the world that are suffering from currency situations. And there, we have to adjust to the reality. And I'm talking about Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Argentina. So there's a subsegment of markets where I would not apply the global rule, and we're acting very specifically in those markets. But beyond those markets overall, we're seeing -- and I think it's because what I was saying earlier, unemployment levels being very low, we're seeing consumers continue to behave in a positive way. Our category penetrations in most of those markets is still relatively low, and we continue to be an affordable treat in those markets. So our products continue to be part of the repertoire that they can afford, and they make trade-offs to stay within our category. So we're seeing that in a very positive way.

是的。謝謝你，達拉。顯然，世界上的一些市場正受到貨幣狀況的影響。在那裡，我們必須適應現實。我說的是土耳其、巴基斯坦、埃及、阿根廷。因此，有一個細分市場我不會應用全球規則，而我們在這些市場中的行動非常具體。但除了這些總體市場之外，我們看到——我認為這是因為我之前所說的，失業率非常低，我們看到消費者繼續以積極的方式表現。我們的品類在大多數市場的滲透率仍然相對較低，並且我們仍然是這些市場中價格實惠的產品。因此，我們的產品仍然是他們買得起的產品系列的一部分，並且他們會做出權衡以留在我們的類別中。所以我們以非常積極的方式看待這一點。

Now competitive wise, I think there's very rational competition across the world from what I -- from what we can observe in the first half of the year, both in our snacks and our beverage business. And that's what we're assuming in the balance of the year.

現在就競爭而言，我認為從我在今年上半年觀察到的情況來看，全球範圍內的零食和飲料業務都存在非常理性的競爭。這就是我們對今年餘下時間的假設。

Our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

I have to get a little bit more specific around the innovation activity that you guys have (inaudible).

我必須更具體地介紹一下你們的創新活動（聽不清）。

Lauren, we cannot hear you very well. You're breaking up. I don't know if it's our phone or it's -- now it seems to be okay.

勞倫，我們聽不清楚。你們要分手了我不知道這是我們手機的問題還是——現在看來沒問題了。

Is it better a little?

是不是好一點了？

A little better.

好一點。

I will hang up and call back.

我會掛斷電話並回電。

Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

All right. I wanted to circle back on your guidance. I just had a question on it. Your new guidance implies, I guess, above algo growth in the second half, but I guess it doesn't really imply much bottom line leverage. So I wanted to understand if there might be some level of conservatism baked in? Or if you're planning on stepping up your reinvestments in the second half? Or if there are any incremental headwinds we should be aware of?

好的。我想回顧一下你的指導。我只是有一個問題。我想，你的新指導意味著下半年的算法增長會高於算法增長，但我想這並不意味著太多的底線槓桿。所以我想了解是否存在某種程度的保守主義？或者您是否計劃在下半年加大再投資力度？或者我們是否應該注意任何增量阻力？

Yes. Great question, Bonnie. It's Hugh. You're right in that the balance or the -- yes, the balance of the year guidance is, in effect, 7.5 revenue, 8.5 EPS, that's the squeeze on the balance of the year. What is implied in the margins are two things. Number one, actually continued strong productivity. And if you look at where we are year-to-date, our pricing and our commodities are right in line with each other. So the margin improvement that you saw in the quarter, 132 bps on gross and 45 on net is entirely driven by productivity, which is reflective of the productivity investments that we've made over the last couple of years in things like digitalization and in automation and then leveraging global business services to standardize how we operate.

是的。好問題，邦妮。是休。你說得對，平衡或——是的，年度平衡指導實際上是 7.5 的收入，8.5 每股收益，這是對年度平衡的擠壓。頁邊空白中暗示了兩件事。第一，實際上持續強勁的生產力。如果你看看我們今年迄今為止的情況，我們的定價和我們的商品是完全一致的。因此，您在本季度看到的利潤率改善，毛利率提高了 132 個基點，淨值提高了 45 個基點，這完全是由生產力驅動的，這反映了我們過去幾年在數字化和自動化等方面進行的生產力投資然後利用全球商業服務來標準化我們的運營方式。

That's actually kind of been a pivot this year. And that's a pivot that I think you'll see ongoing not just in the back half of this year, but actually into '24 and beyond where we're getting margin improvement out of these productivity initiatives. And obviously, the margins are quite good year-to-date entirely driven by productivity. In the back half, you'll continue to see that level of productivity improvement. If anything, it will accelerate but we are continuing to invest. We're investing in advertising and marketing, and A&M was up 50 bps in the second quarter. You're going to continue to see us invest in A&M.

這實際上是今年的一個轉折點。我認為您不僅會在今年下半年看到這一轉變，而且實際上會在 24 年及以後看到，我們將通過這些生產力計劃提高利潤率。顯然，今年迄今為止的利潤率相當不錯，完全是由生產力驅動的。在後半部分，您將繼續看到生產力水平的提高。如果有的話，那就是它會加速，但我們將繼續投資。我們正在投資廣告和營銷，A&M 第二季度上漲了 50 個基點。您將繼續看到我們投資 A&M。

You're going to continue to see us invest in capabilities. And our investment cycles tend to be more back-half oriented than they are front-half oriented when we have a sense as to how the year is going to turn out. So that's what you're seeing in the implied guidance in the balance of the year. It's not that the productivity is going to diminish, it's not that anything is going on with the pricing other than the overlap effects of pricing. It's really a reflection of some of the productivity being reinvested in the back half of the year so that we continue that strong momentum into '24 and beyond.

您將繼續看到我們對能力進行投資。當我們了解今年的結果時，我們的投資週期往往更傾向於後半段而不是前半段。這就是您在今年剩餘時間的隱含指導中看到的內容。這並不是說生產力會下降，也不是說除了定價的重疊效應之外，定價發生了任何變化。這確實反映了下半年一些生產力的再投資，以便我們在 24 年及以後繼續保持強勁的勢頭。

Our next question comes from Vivien Azer with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vivien Azer 和 TD Cowen。

I was looking to actually follow up on Bonnie's question, but just to drill down on PBNA margins, down a little bit year-over-year. In your prepared remarks, you reiterated your confidence in expanding margins on a full year basis. I was hoping you could just expand on some of the headwinds that you saw in the quarter and what gives you confidence on the full year margin outlook for the segment specifically?

我本來想真正跟進邦妮的問題，但只是為了深入了解 PBNA 利潤率，同比下降了一點。在您準備好的講話中，您重申了對擴大全年利潤率的信心。我希望您能詳細闡述您在本季度看到的一些不利因素，以及是什麼讓您對該部門的全年利潤率前景充滿信心？

Yes. Vivien, it's Hugh. The margins in PBNA was down in the second quarter. We had a big gain on an asset transaction in 2022. We're cycling over that transaction in '23. And for the full year on PBNA, you'll see the margins up in a healthy way and north of 100 basis points.

是的。薇薇安，我是休。 PBNA 第二季度的利潤率有所下降。我們在 2022 年的一項資產交易中獲得了巨大收益。我們將在 23 年循環該交易。對於 PBNA 全年而言，您會看到利潤率健康增長，超過 100 個基點。

Your next question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

Is this better, hopefully?

希望這樣更好嗎？

Much better.

好多了。

It is.

這是。

Much better.

好多了。

I'm still sitting in the same place. Okay. Sorry about that. I was going to ask about Gatorade. So tons of innovation activity, you guys have talked about it. We're seeing it very much in the marketplace. And in the release, you talked about Gatorade being up double digits in the quarter. But when we look at Nielsen, it shows something that significantly trails that. And so I was just curious, I guess, about mix of on track, how much of maybe some of the performance you're seeing has to do with incremental shelf space and distribution given the breadth of innovation and new product activity there has been?

我還坐在同一個地方。好的。對於那個很抱歉。我本來想問一下佳得樂。你們已經談論瞭如此多的創新活動。我們在市場上經常看到它。在新聞稿中，您談到佳得樂在本季度實現了兩位數的增長。但當我們觀察尼爾森時，它顯示出一些明顯落後的東西。所以我只是好奇，我想，關於軌道上的混合，考慮到創新和新產品活動的廣度，你所看到的性能中有多少可能與增量貨架空間和分銷有關？

Yes, Lauren, I think the -- I think there are a couple of factors. The G2 DSD has a meaningful impact on timing on when we reflect our sales and when the consumer actually buys compared to previous years. So we're much -- the cycle has reduced substantially, given our DSD model and that might have some implications on the readings. We feel good about the sports category even though it has been cold in some parts of the country for the month of June and so on. But in general, within the categories continues to have healthy metrics in terms of penetration and usage and everything else. Our innovation G Fit, Gatorlyte and most importantly for us, long term, our powders and tablets is going very, very well. So we believe in those subsegments continue to develop along with G0 which continues to attract new consumers to the category.

是的，勞倫，我認為——我認為有幾個因素。與往年相比，G2 DSD 對我們反映銷售額的時間以及消費者實際購買的時間產生了有意義的影響。因此，考慮到我們的 DSD 模型，週期已大大縮短，這可能會對讀數產生一些影響。儘管6月等月份國內部分地區天氣寒冷，但我們對體育類別感覺良好。但總的來說，這些類別在滲透率、使用率和其他方面仍然有健康的指標。我們的創新 G Fit、Gatorlyte，以及對我們來說最重要的是，從長遠來看，我們的粉末和片劑進展得非常非常順利。因此，我們相信這些細分市場將與 G0 一起繼續發展，繼續吸引新消費者進入該類別。

So we feel good. We're seeing all the execution metrics for Gatorade improving. So inventory on display, service levels to our customers, which were a little bit handicapped in the past due to supply chain issues. So we're seeing the health of the brand and the category at a pretty good level. It is true that there are some new entrants in the category like Prime that have been taken some space, especially with younger audiences. They've been affecting Gatorade, but they've been affecting more of some other brands in the category that had that kind of profile. So we feel good about the execution. We feel good about how the brand is performing. We've increased advertising substantially against Gatorade and we'll continue to do so in the back end of the summer and the year. So we feel good about Gatorade. And I think the G2 DSD is going to be a structural move that will give us better execution and capacity to respond to weather changes and opportunity in the marketplace going forward.

所以我們感覺很好。我們看到佳得樂的所有執行指標都在改善。因此，展示的庫存、為客戶提供的服務水平在過去由於供應鏈問題而受到了一些阻礙。因此，我們看到該品牌和該類別的健康狀況處於相當好的水平。確實，該類別中有一些新進入者（例如 Prime）已經佔據了一些空間，尤其是在年輕受眾中。他們一直在影響佳得樂，但他們也更多地影響了該類別中具有此類形象的其他一些品牌。所以我們對執行感覺良好。我們對該品牌的表現感到滿意。我們大幅增加了針對佳得樂的廣告，並將在夏末和今年繼續這樣做。所以我們對佳得樂感覺很好。我認為 G2 DSD 將是一項結構性舉措，它將賦予我們更好的執行力和能力，以應對未來的天氣變化和市場機會。

Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So my question is more on the balance of pricing and volumes. Obviously, you're lapping some of the most strong price increases from last year. And you're expecting, I would say -- are you expecting still high single digits in the second half with volumes more flattish? Or it's still negative because to get to the math of 10%, perhaps you're lapping Russia, but it seems that the U.K. and France and Spain have lagged a bit for the top line. So I'm trying to reconcile the implied organic 7.5-ish with better volumes. So in other words, you are seeing some improvement there as pricing kind of resolve for the consumer. How we should be thinking to Ramon's comment on some of the discounters and that happening? Or are you still seeing room for continued pricing, but to a lesser extent, as you mentioned, at CNBC interview?

所以我的問題更多是關於定價和銷量的平衡。顯然，您正在經歷去年以來最強勁的價格上漲。我想說的是，您是否預計下半年銷量仍將保持高個位數，而成交量將更加持平？或者它仍然是負數，因為如果要計算 10%，也許你正在超越俄羅斯，但英國、法國和西班牙的收入似乎有點落後。因此，我試圖將隱含的有機 7.5 左右與更好的銷量相協調。換句話說，你會看到一些改進，因為消費者的定價決策有所改善。我們應該如何看待拉蒙對一些折扣店的評論以及正在發生的事情？或者，正如您在 CNBC 採訪中提到的那樣，您是否仍然看到繼續定價的空間，但程度較小？

Go ahead, Ramon.

繼續吧，拉蒙。

Yes. No, we can have Hugh continue the CNBC interview.

是的。不，我們可以讓休繼續接受 CNBC 採訪。

Andrea, so volunteer revenue, the squeeze is 7.5%. What I think we're going to see is volumes will be sort of in the flattish range for the balance of the year. Obviously, there's still carryover pricing. And I don't think we'll do anything different than our normal cycles on pricing in the balance of the year. You tend to see pricing in the beverage business in the fourth quarter. Frito tends not to go in the balance of the year. But that's TBD. We'll see how the year plays out. But the implication that we have in the forecast right now is kind of back to our relatively more normal pricing. And obviously, that sets us up for '24. I mean a lot of ways to think about it as the back half of the year is a little bit ahead of our long-term guidance, which I think is the momentum that we'll carry forward.

安德里亞（Andrea），志願者收入壓縮了 7.5%。我認為我們將看到今年餘下時間的銷量將處於持平區間。顯然，仍然存在結轉定價。我認為我們不會在今年餘下的時間裡對定價採取與正常週期不同的做法。您通常會在第四季度看到飲料業務的定價。炸薯條往往不會在一年中的剩餘時間裡出現。但那是待定。我們將看看今年的表現如何。但我們現在的預測表明，這有點回到了我們相對更正常的定價。顯然，這為我們的 24 世紀做好了準備。我的意思是有很多方法來思考這個問題，因為今年下半年有點超前於我們的長期指導，我認為這是我們將繼續發揚的動力。

Our next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券的克里斯·凱里。

Hugh, just one quick follow-up on the gross margin. You said that the pricing tailwinds year-to-date are basically in line or offsetting inflation. I couldn't tell if you said commodity inflation. I guess what I see is about 600 basis point benefit from pricing and a 400 basis point headwind from commodity inflation. So it seems like you're actually tracking ahead. But when you made that comment? Was that a total inflation comment or is there a mix tailwind as well? So maybe price is actually below what we can see in price mix. So I just wanted to clarify that. And I guess connected is just in the context of full year gross margin, unless there's some offsets, it seems like you could see some notable expansion for the full year. Am I reading that wrong? That's going to allow you to invest? Or are there some offsets I'm not thinking about?

休，這只是毛利率的一個快速跟進。您說過，今年迄今為止的定價順風基本上符合或抵消了通貨膨脹。我不知道你是否說的是商品通脹。我想我看到的是定價帶來約 600 個基點的收益，而大宗商品通脹帶來 400 個基點的逆風。所以看起來你確實在前進。但你什麼時候發表這個評論的？這是總體通脹的評論還是也有混合的推動因素？因此，也許價格實際上低於我們在價格組合中看到的價格。所以我只是想澄清這一點。我想連接只是在全年毛利率的背景下，除非有一些抵消，否則你似乎可以看到全年的一些顯著擴張。我讀錯了嗎？這會讓你投資嗎？還是有一些我沒有考慮到的抵消？

Yes. Chris, it's Hugh. So what I had said was pricing was up exactly in line with our commodity inflation. So both are in the teens and the numbers are basically identical. So that obviously is not driving margin improvement because those 2 are essentially offsetting each other. In terms of the balance of the year margins, we have previously communicated, we'd be at least equal with where we were last year. We're now clearly going to be ahead of where we were last year. So margins will improve this year as opposed to the at least equal that we had previously communicated. And the driver, of course, behind that is productivity. And the things that I've been talking about and Ramon has been talking about for a while, we've made these investments in digitalization.

是的。克里斯，我是休。所以我所說的是定價的上漲與我們的商品通脹完全一致。所以兩者都是十幾歲，而且數字基本相同。因此，這顯然不會推動利潤率的提高，因為這兩者本質上是相互抵消的。就年度利潤率平衡而言，我們之前曾溝通過，我們至少會與去年持平。我們現在顯然將領先於去年。因此，今年的利潤率將會提高，而不是我們之前傳達的至少相等。當然，其背後的驅動力是生產力。我和拉蒙一直在談論的事情，我們已經在數字化方面進行了這些投資。

We've made these investments in automation. We've been investing in building out a global business services operation. And I think that's the pivot that you see happening inside of our numbers right now is that the margins will improve, I think, on a sustained basis, and it will be driven by productivity, and that productivity will come out of those 3 buckets. So I don't think this is a 1 or 2 quarter thing. I think you're going to see margins continue to steadily improve this year and into the coming years.

我們在自動化方面進行了這些投資。我們一直在投資建設全球商業服務業務。我認為，你現在在我們的數據中看到的關鍵是，我認為，利潤率將會持續改善，並且它將由生產力驅動，而生產力將來自這三個方面。所以我不認為這只是一兩個季度的事情。我認為今年和未來幾年你會看到利潤率繼續穩步提高。

Our next question comes from Peter Grom with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的彼得·格羅姆。

So I was hoping to get some updated thoughts on the CELSIUS agreement and kind of what you've learned over the past several months. Obviously, the growth has been tremendous. But how has that outsized growth or better-than-expected share performance shifted your view as to whether this is the right structure for PepsiCo longer term? And then just having previously distributed Bang and kind of given the Bang and Monster news, do you have any updated thoughts as to whether this could impact the growth trajectory for CELSIUS looking ahead?

因此，我希望獲得一些有關 CELSIUS 協議的最新想法以及您在過去幾個月中學到的知識。顯然，增長是巨大的。但是，這種超額增長或好於預期的股價表現如何改變了您對這是否是百事公司長期正確結構的看法？然後，在之前發布過《Bang》以及《Bang 和 Monster》的消息後，您對這是否會影響 CELSIUS 未來的增長軌蹟有什麼最新的想法嗎？

Yes. I think there's a couple of realizations on this. The number 1 is that the power of our distribution system, our DSD machine in the U.S. is very powerful. And obviously, you can see by the increase in the numerical distribution and the quality of execution. So that's one element that makes us feel very strong about our capabilities in the U.S. Beverages. Second, I think CELSIUS is a brand that is capturing new consumers to the energy category, consumers that were not consuming energy drinks for many reasons in the past, flavor or image or some other elements. That is a positive. The category keeps expanding, and we're glad that that's in our portfolio. And we're working together with CELSIUS to see additional international opportunities, whether we can expand the brand in some other markets, especially more developed markets where the category is a bit more developed. Those are the 3 conclusions that we're taking from our relationship so far.

是的。我認為對此有一些認識。第一個是我們的發行系統的力量，我們在美國的DSD機器非常強大。顯然，您可以通過數量分佈和執行質量的提高看到這一點。因此，這是讓我們對我們在美國飲料領域的能力感到非常強烈的一個因素。其次，我認為 CELSIUS 是一個正在吸引新消費者進入能量類別的品牌，這些消費者過去由於多種原因、口味、形像或其他一些因素而沒有消費能量飲料。這是積極的。該類別不斷擴大，我們很高興它出現在我們的產品組合中。我們正在與 CELSIUS 合作，尋找更多的國際機會，看看我們是否可以在其他一些市場擴展品牌，尤其是該品類更加發達的較發達市場。這是我們迄今為止從我們的關係中得出的三個結論。

Right. And the only thing I'd add is we're very happy with the investment we've made, and we feel very comfortable where we are with that company right now. I think we're both benefiting from each other's capabilities.

正確的。我唯一要補充的是，我們對我們所做的投資感到非常滿意，並且我們對目前與該公司的合作感到非常滿意。我認為我們都從彼此的能力中受益。

Our next question comes from Robert Ottenstein with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Robert Ottenstein。

Congratulations on another terrific quarter. I'm wondering if we could focus on air, we haven't spent that much time talking about in the past but is really doing well and that's Europe. And maybe perhaps parse out for us, remind us the business mix in Europe between snacks and beverages. And then talk a little bit about how the business is doing so well, very significant pricing. I know you had relatively easy comps. And whether you think that there are structural long-term changes in the pricing dynamics in Europe? I mean, for many years, Europe was very deflationary and extremely tough retail. I'm sure a lot of that persists, but are there clues here that maybe there are structural changes in that environment that can go forward?

祝賀又一個精彩的季度。我想知道我們是否可以專注於空氣，我們過去沒有花太多時間談論，但確實做得很好，那就是歐洲。也許可以為我們解析一下，提醒我們歐洲零食和飲料之間的業務組合。然後談談業務如何做得這麼好，非常重要的定價。我知道你的比賽相對簡單。您是否認為歐洲的定價動態存在結構性長期變化？我的意思是，多年來，歐洲通縮嚴重，零售業極其艱難。我確信其中很多仍然存在，但是這裡是否有線索表明該環境中可能存在可以繼續發展的結構性變化？

Yes. Thank you. Yes, good diagnostic, the fact that our European business clearly has had a terrific first half of the year, and we're expecting that to continue in the second half. A couple of elements. I think we have a portfolio that is quite robust on the snack side. We have very good market positions in snacks. And we have good challenging positions in beverages and our zero propositions in Europe are growing very fast, and they're taking market share in some of the more affluent markets in Europe. So good portfolio mix and good focus by the team on growing that portfolio. As you said, we were a little bit late to pricing last year, in '22. And the team has been courageous and has been able to find win-win solutions with our customers in '23.

是的。謝謝。是的，很好的診斷，事實上我們的歐洲業務今年上半年顯然表現出色，我們預計下半年這種情況將繼續下去。幾個要素。我認為我們在零食方面擁有相當強勁的產品組合。我們在零食領域擁有非常好的市場地位。我們在飲料領域擁有良好的挑戰性地位，我們在歐洲的零主張增長非常快，他們正在歐洲一些較富裕的市場佔據市場份額。如此好的投資組合以及團隊對發展該投資組合的高度關注。正如您所說，去年 22 年我們的定價有點晚了。團隊勇敢無畏，在 23 年與客戶找到了雙贏的解決方案。

So as you see from the numbers, good pricing levels, but what is also very remarkable in Europe is the levels of productivity that the team has been executing through simplification of the business and everything else that Hugh was saying about digitalization and automation and also moving some service to essential points that we can service the businesses more effectively, more efficiently. So good work by the European team, both on portfolio managed simplification and then in driving productivity. So we feel good about Europe. We have a very strong business in both Central Europe, Eastern Europe and parts of the economy that are growing faster. So we feel good about the portfolio composition and the business going forward.

因此，正如您從數字中看到的那樣，定價水平良好，但在歐洲也非常引人注目的是團隊通過簡化業務以及休所說的有關數字化和自動化以及移動的其他所有內容所執行的生產力水平。一些服務是我們能夠更有效、更高效地為企業服務的關鍵點。歐洲團隊在投資組合管理簡化和提高生產力方面都做得很好。所以我們對歐洲感覺很好。我們在中歐、東歐以及經濟增長較快的地區擁有非常強大的業務。因此，我們對投資組合的構成和未來的業務感到滿意。

Our next question comes from Stephen Powers with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的斯蒂芬·鮑爾斯。

Hugh, maybe putting a final bow around Bryan's original top line question. I guess, Hugh, the volume cadence that you implied a little earlier, down 2% or so in the first half based on results reported to date, and if I heard you correctly, flattish in the second half. How does that compare with your outlook coming into the year? Because I guess, just stepping back, I'm trying to get a better sense of whether the 4 points of upside you now see in organic growth versus that February forecast is more driven by better volumes or whether the upside is really driven by greater-than-expected price mix realization or whether it's some kind of combination?

休，也許對布萊恩最初提出的首要問題最後鞠躬。休，我想，你早些時候暗示的音量節奏，根據迄今為止報告的結果，上半年下降了 2% 左右，如果我沒聽錯的話，下半年則持平。這與您對今年的展望相比如何？因為我想，只是退後一步，我試圖更好地了解你現在看到的有機增長與 2 月份預測相比的 4 個百分點的上行空間是否更多地受到銷量增加的推動，或者上行空間是否真正受到更大的推動——價格組合實現超出預期還是某種組合？

Steve, it's a combination. Volumes are certainly a bit better than we expected and price realization is a little better than we expected as well. So it's a combo. It's not dominant one or the other.

史蒂夫，這是一個組合。銷量肯定比我們預期要好一點，價格實現也比我們預期好一點。所以這是一個組合。它不是占主導地位的一個或另一個。

Yes. And I would say the commercial teams have done a great job in minimizing elasticity. So going into the year, of course, we were assuming a level of elasticity that was more based on historical levels. I think we've been positively surprised on the strength of the brands in some markets. And obviously, as I said earlier, the consequence of the investment we've been making. But the way the teams have executed innovation, have executed range expansion, multiple displays around the store and some of the tactics we normally use to drive volume and minimize elasticities have been really well executed. I think we link it as well to as being a more intelligent company in a broader sense, having better data, having better digitalization and execution capabilities. So it is all connected. And yes, we feel good about how the business performed in that respect versus what we had initially planned.

是的。我想說商業團隊在最小化彈性方面做得很好。當然，進入今年，我們假設的彈性水平更多地基於歷史水平。我認為我們對一些市場中品牌的實力感到非常驚訝。顯然，正如我之前所說，這是我們一直在進行的投資的結果。但團隊執行創新、執行範圍擴展、在商店周圍進行多個展示以及我們通常用來提高銷量和最小化彈性的一些策略的方式都執行得非常好。我認為我們將其與更廣泛意義上的更智能的公司聯繫起來，擁有更好的數據、更好的數字化和執行能力。所以一切都是相連的。是的，與我們最初的計劃相比，我們對業務在這方面的表現感到滿意。

Our next question comes from Filippo Falorni with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni。

A quick question on Frito-Lay North America. Clearly, very strong results in the quarter. But over the last couple of weeks, we have seen a bit of a slowdown in track channels. So the first question is, what do you think is driving the recent slowdown, partly is obviously cycling high price realization, but also just general sense on what you're seeing from a volume standpoint. And then also why are you seeing untracked channels in that business?

關於菲多利北美公司的一個簡單問題。顯然，本季度的業績非常強勁。但在過去的幾周里，我們看到軌道渠道有所放緩。因此，第一個問題是，您認為是什麼推動了最近的經濟放緩，部分原因顯然是高價格實現，但也只是從成交量的角度來看您所看到的一般意義。那麼為什麼您會在該業務中看到未跟踪的渠道？

Yes, Frito-Lay is having a tremendous year again on top of a very good '22. And it's been driven by our large brands performing very well, linking to what I said earlier about very strong brand programs and commercial programs. The away-from-home business and the small store independent business where there is a lot of impulse consumption is not really reflected normally by a lot of the reports that you've probably seen. So that might be a gap there. And obviously, in the summer, this is very relevant as people move around more. But we're seeing -- the only thing we're seeing in Frito-Lay in the last few weeks is the lapping versus the P6 price increase we did last year. So that's the only element. Everything else, we're seeing a much better supply chain. So our service levels to our key customers is improving a lot. That's good news because we were a little bit handicapped in the last year and first half of this year, we're seeing much broader portfolio.

是的，菲多利公司 (Frito-Lay) 在 22 年的輝煌業績基礎上又迎來了輝煌的一年。這是由我們表現出色的大品牌推動的，這與我之前所說的非常強大的品牌計劃和商業計劃有關。您可能看到的很多報告並沒有真正反映出存在大量衝動消費的外出業務和小商店獨立業務。所以這可能是一個差距。顯然，在夏天，隨著人們走動的次數增多，這一點非常重要。但我們看到 - 過去幾週我們在菲多利看到的唯一一件事是與去年 P6 價格上漲相比的研磨。所以這是唯一的元素。其他方面，我們看到了更好的供應鏈。因此，我們對主要客戶的服務水平正在大幅提高。這是個好消息，因為我們在去年和今年上半年遇到了一些障礙，但我們看到了更廣泛的投資組合。

So the smaller SKUs that drive -- we know they drive frequency and they drive penetration in some sub-consumers. So we're seeing a lot of positive trends, some of our innovation. If you think about minis or if you think about some of the new launches like the jerky product or a relaunch of the nuts and seeds, our permissible portfolio, they're really doing very well, along with our big brands. So we feel good about the portfolio composition and the continued executional capabilities of Frito to drive availability universally almost. So we're feeling good about the business.

因此，較小的 SKU 會推動——我們知道它們會推動頻率，並推動某些次級消費者的滲透。所以我們看到了很多積極的趨勢，以及我們的一些創新。如果您考慮迷你產品，或者考慮一些新推出的產品，例如肉乾產品或重新推出堅果和種子（我們允許的產品組合），它們與我們的大品牌一起確實做得很好。因此，我們對 Frito 的投資組合構成和持續執行能力感到滿意，以推動幾乎普遍的可用性。所以我們對這項業務感覺良好。

Our last question comes from Gerald Pascarelli with Wedbush Securities.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Gerald Pascarelli。

Mine is also on energy drinks, specifically regarding near-term distribution opportunities. You've obviously been a great partner for CELSIUS since you took over distribution of their products, which has been readily apparent in measured channels. But looking forward, how do you think about the opportunity to penetrate some of the non-measured channels that have yet to scratch the surface, specifically related to food service, like college campuses as an example. I mean the comprehensive rollout of these products, something we should expect in the back half of this year? Or is that more of a 2024 opportunity? I guess any incremental color you could provide on timing and then the potential halo effect that CELSIUS could have on your legacy portfolio of energy products would be helpful?

我的目標還包括能量飲料，特別是近期的分銷機會。自從您接管 CELSIUS 產品的分銷以來，您顯然一直是 CELSIUS 的重要合作夥伴，這一點在可測渠道中顯而易見。但展望未來，您如何看待滲透一些尚未觸及表面的非衡量渠道的機會，特別是與餐飲服務相關的渠道，例如大學校園。我的意思是這些產品的全面推出，我們應該在今年下半年期待嗎？或者這更像是 2024 年的機會？我想您可以在時間上提供任何增量顏色，然後 CELSIUS 可能對您的傳統能源產品組合產生的潛在光環效應會有幫助嗎？

Yes. Listen, we take our energy products along with the rest of the portfolio where it makes sense, right? So some of the channels you're mentioning like college -- universities, they are very large channels for our energy execution, right? So when you go to a normal campus, you will see a ROCKSTAR, you would see CELSIUS, you will see our coffee business. You will see the new Gatorade energy Fast Twitch. So you will see all these execution. Wherever there are consumers that are looking for energy, we tend to be there. So we're not holding on any opportunities at this point to maximize the reach of our brands. So no, don't wait for '24, we're executing as we speak.

是的。聽著，我們將能源產品與其他產品組合一起放在有意義的地方，對嗎？所以你提到的一些渠道，比如大學，它們是我們能源執行的非常大的渠道，對嗎？所以當你去一個普通的校園，你會看到一個ROCKSTAR，你會看到CELSIUS，你會看到我們的咖啡業務。您將看到新的佳得樂能量 Fast Twitch。所以你會看到所有這些執行。哪裡有消費者需要能源，哪裡就有我們。因此，我們目前沒有抓住任何機會來最大限度地擴大我們品牌的影響力。所以，不，不要等到 24 日，我們正在執行。

Great. So I think this is the end of the conversation. Thank you very much. Thank you all of you for joining us today and especially for the confidence that you've placed in us with your investments. We hope that you all have a great summer, and stay safe and healthy. Thank you.

偉大的。所以我認為談話到此結束。非常感謝。感謝大家今天加入我們，特別是感謝你們對我們的投資的信任。我們希望大家度過一個愉快的夏天，並保持安全和健康。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的演講到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。