使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good evening. My name is Sophia, and I will be your conference operator today. Welcome to PagSeguro Digital earnings call for the fourth quarter of 2025. The slide presentation for today's webcast is available on PagSeguro Digital's Investor Relations website at investors.pagbank.com.
晚安。我叫 Sophia,今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線員。歡迎參加 PagSeguro Digital 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。今日網路直播的簡報投影片可於 PagSeguro Digital 投資人關係網站 investors.pagbank.com 取得。
Please refer to the forward-looking statements, a reconciliation disclosure in this presentation, and in the company's earnings release appendix. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded and will be available on the company's IR website after the event is concluded.
請參閱本簡報中的前瞻性陳述、對帳揭露,以及公司財報新聞稿附錄中的相關內容。(接線員指示) 本次會議將被錄音,並將於活動結束後在公司投資人關係網站提供回放。
Now, I will turn the call over to Daniel Spencer Pioner, Head of IR.
現在,我將把電話會議交給投資人關係主管 Daniel Spencer Pioner。
Daniel Spencer Pioner - Head, Investor Relations
Daniel Spencer Pioner - Head, Investor Relations
Good evening, everyone, and welcome to PagBank's earnings conference call for the fourth quarter of 2025. I'm Daniel Spencer Pioner, PagBank's Head of Investor Relations, and I want to thank you for taking the time to join our webcast.
各位晚安,歡迎參加 PagBank 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。我是 Daniel Spencer Pioner,PagBank 投資人關係主管,感謝各位撥冗參加我們的網路直播。
I'm here with Ricardo Dutra, our Principal Executive Officer; Carlos Mauad, our CEO; and Gustavo Sechin, our CFO. After the presentation, we'll have a live Q&A session. Please note that during Q&A, we'll take only one question per analyst to ensure the best use of our time.
我與我們的首席執行官(Principal Executive Officer)Ricardo Dutra、執行長 Carlos Mauad,以及財務長 Gustavo Sechin 一同出席。簡報結束後,我們將進行即時問答。請注意,在問答環節中,為了更有效運用時間,我們將每位分析師僅接受一個問題。
Now, I'd like to hand it over to Dutra. Please, Dutra.
現在,我想把時間交給 Dutra。請,Dutra。
Richardo Da Silva - Principal Executive Officer
Richardo Da Silva - Principal Executive Officer
Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining our full-year and fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call. In Q4, we continued to expand our credit and banking businesses, along with the reacceleration of acquiring volumes. As a result, we are pleased to report a robust performance, demonstrating our resilience sustained by disciplined execution and value creation focused on our long-term ambition.
各位好,感謝參加我們 2025 年全年與第四季財報電話會議。在第四季,我們持續擴張信貸與銀行業務,同時收單交易量也重新加速成長。因此,我們很高興報告強勁的表現,展現出在嚴謹執行與以長期願景為核心的價值創造所支撐下的韌性。
Going to slide 4, we can see the key operational and financial highlights for the full year 2025. Compared to last year, our revenues reached BRL13.4 billion, 16% growth, driven by an impressive 51% growth in banking revenues and 9% in payments revenues. Net income was up 4% and year over year.
請看第 4 頁投影片,我們可以看到 2025 年全年的主要營運與財務亮點。與去年相比,我們營收達到 134 億巴西雷亞爾(BRL),成長 16%,主要由銀行業務營收成長 51% 以及支付業務營收成長 9% 所帶動。淨利年增 4%。
Later on the presentation, we will see the main impact on net income was due to the increase in financial expenses linked with the basic interest rate of Brazil, SELIC, which grew from an average of around 10.8% per year in 2024 to almost 14.5% per year in 2025.
在簡報後段我們將看到,淨利的主要影響來自與巴西基準利率 SELIC 相關的財務費用增加;SELIC 的年平均水準由 2024 年約 10.8% 上升至 2025 年接近 14.5%。
Going to the value creation for shareholders section, our earnings per share reached BRL7.99, growing 21% year over year. Buybacks and total dividends distributed in 2025 reached BRL2.1 billion, leading to a 15% total shareholder yield.
在股東價值創造部分,我們每股盈餘達到 7.99 巴西雷亞爾(BRL),年增 21%。2025 年的庫藏股回購與發放的股利總額達 21 億巴西雷亞爾(BRL),使總股東報酬率(total shareholder yield)達 15%。
On slide 5, we can see the highlights of the fourth quarter. Our TPV grew 10% quarter over quarter, marking an inflection point with sequential improvement in volumes. Our expanded credit portfolio reached BRL50 billion.
在第 5 頁投影片,我們可以看到第四季的亮點。我們的 TPV(總支付量)季增 10%,交易量連續改善,標誌著一個拐點。我們的擴張後信貸組合達到 500 億巴西雷亞爾(BRL)。
It is important to highlight the portion of the credit portfolio composed by loans, credit cards, and working capital grew 33% year over year, with NPLs 90, approximately half of the industry average. These trends reinforce the underlying strength of our ecosystem and our ongoing commitment to expanding access to financial services in a responsible and sustainable way. On the funding efficiency initiative, our deposits reached BRL40 billion, growing 13% year over year.
值得強調的是,由貸款、信用卡與營運資金所構成的信貸組合部分年增 33%,而 90 天以上不良貸款(NPLs 90)約為同業平均的一半。這些趨勢強化了我們生態系的內在實力,以及我們以負責任且可持續的方式擴大金融服務可及性的持續承諾。在資金效率(funding efficiency)倡議方面,我們的存款達到 400 億巴西雷亞爾(BRL),年增 13%。
Moving on to financial highlights. Our total net revenue, excluding interchange and card scheme fees, increased 12% year over year, reaching BRL3.5 billion. Our non-GAAP net income was BRL678 million, 7.4% higher year over year, leading to annualized return on average equity of 18.4%, improved 100 basis points year over year.
接著看財務亮點。我們的總淨營收(不含交換費與卡組織費用)年增 12%,達到 35 億巴西雷亞爾(BRL)。我們的非 GAAP 淨利為 6.78 億巴西雷亞爾(BRL),年增 7.4%,使平均股東權益年化報酬率達 18.4%,較去年提升 100 個基點。
On slide 6, I'm pleased to announce we successfully delivered our 2025 guidance despite strong headwinds such as macro volatility and sharp increase in Brazilian interest rates in 2025. Gross profit grew 6.9% for the year, within our expected range of 5% to 7%. GAAP diluted EPS increased 18.2% in 2025, above the guided range of 13% to 15% using the same share count as of December 2024.
在第 6 頁投影片,我很高興宣布,儘管 2025 年面臨宏觀波動以及巴西利率大幅上升等強勁逆風,我們仍成功達成 2025 年的財測指引。全年毛利成長 6.9%,落在我們預期的 5% 至 7% 區間內。以 2024 年 12 月的相同股數計算,2025 年 GAAP 稀釋每股盈餘成長 18.2%,高於指引區間 13% 至 15%。
When you consider the benefit of buyback execution, reducing shares outstanding, EPS increased more than 20% year over year. Capital expenditures reached BRL2.3 billion in 2025, landing at the upper end of our BRL2.2 billion to BRL2.3 billion range. Overall, the full delivery of 2025 guidance makes us confident about 2026 perspectives and reinforces our strong track record, as shown in the following slide.
若將回購執行帶來的效益(流通在外股數下降)納入考量,每股盈餘年增超過 20%。2025 年資本支出達 23 億巴西雷亞爾(BRL),落在我們 22 億至 23 億巴西雷亞爾(BRL)區間的上緣。整體而言,2025 年指引的全面達成使我們對 2026 年展望更具信心,並強化我們一貫的優異紀錄,如下一頁投影片所示。
I'd like to briefly focus on our consistent track record in creating shareholder value. Since our IPO in 2018, GAAP diluted EPS has grown at a compounded annual rate of nearly 16% despite the global disruptions and macro volatility during this timeframe.
我想簡要聚焦於我們在創造股東價值方面一貫且穩健的紀錄。自 2018 年 IPO 以來,儘管期間出現全球性干擾與宏觀波動,GAAP 稀釋每股盈餘仍以接近 16% 的複合年成長率成長。
Throughout this journey, we have advanced in key strategic milestones, which broaden our addressable market, strengthened profitability, and built a solid foundation for sustainable earnings growth. These efforts have increased the visibility and recurrence of our results, enhancing predictability, and reinforces the resilience of our business model in generating long-term value.
在這段歷程中,我們在關鍵策略里程碑上持續推進,擴大可服務市場、強化獲利能力,並為可持續的獲利成長建立堅實基礎。這些努力提升了我們成果的能見度與經常性,增強可預測性,並進一步強化我們商業模式在創造長期價值方面的韌性。
Now, I'll pass the word to Carlos Mauad.
現在,我把時間交給 Carlos Mauad。
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Dutra. Good evening. In this section, we will take a look at the operational and commercial performance of our units in this past quarter.
謝謝你,Dutra。晚安。在這一部分,我們將回顧本季度各業務單元的營運與商業表現。
Let me start on slide 9, where we highlight our main growth opportunities. As we've highlighted in recent quarters, as we tap into new verticals, there is a substantial room for expansion across our platform. In many areas of our banking business, our market share remains below 1%, which reinforces our conviction that we are only at the beginning of what we can build whether through deeper cross-sell or a stronger and more efficient deposit franchise or a broader, more diversified credit portfolio, all managed with discipline in a long-term view.
我先從第 9 頁投影片開始,這裡重點說明我們主要的成長機會。如同我們在近期季度所強調的,隨著我們切入新的垂直領域,我們的平台仍有相當大的擴張空間。在我們銀行業務的許多領域,市占率仍低於 1%,這更強化了我們的信念:無論是透過更深度的交叉銷售、更強且更高效率的存款業務布局,或是更廣泛、更多元的信貸組合,並以長期視角嚴謹管理,我們仍僅處於可打造版圖的起點。
On the next slide, we will highlight our customer-centric approach demonstrated by increasing transactionality and engagement of our ecosystem. The evolution of our cash-in metric, which represents inflow not related to acquiring remains one of the most important indicators of our client activity on our platform in the fourth quarter of 2025. Cash-in reached more than BRL90 billion, an increase of 11% compared to the same period of last year.
在下一頁投影片,我們將重點說明以客戶為中心的方法,並透過生態系交易頻率與參與度提升來展現。我們的 cash-in 指標之演進(代表與收單無關的資金流入)仍是 2025 年第四季衡量客戶在我們平台上活動度的最重要指標之一。Cash-in 超過 900 億巴西雷亞爾(BRL),較去年同期增加 11%。
On a per client basis, the figure rose to BRL5,300, up 10% year over year. As a reminder, cash-in is mainly composed by PIX transactions received showing how PIX has become an important and profitable component of our business.
以每位客戶計算,該數字上升至5,300巴西雷亞爾(BRL),同比增長10%。提醒一下,cash-in主要由收到的PIX交易構成,這顯示PIX已成為我們業務中重要且具獲利性的組成部分。
We are also seeing an increase in our platform usage as measured through the amount of bill payments, fixed transaction and the penetration of investment and insurance products signing deeper relationships and improved monetization as clients increasingly rely on us for a wider portion of their financial needs. These trends underscore the strength of our ecosystem and the growing intensity of customer engagement across our base.
我們也看到平台使用量增加,衡量指標包括繳費筆數、固定交易量,以及投資與保險產品的滲透率;這些因素促成更深的客戶關係與更佳的變現能力,因為客戶愈來愈依賴我們來滿足其更廣泛的金融需求。這些趨勢凸顯了我們生態系統的韌性,以及客戶在我們整體客群中的參與度持續提升。
On slide 11, let's speak about our credit performance. We can see credit as a strategic driver of engagement across both our banking and payment business enabling deeper transactional activity and unlocking meaningful cross-sell opportunities. In the fourth quarter, our total credit portfolio reached BRL4.6 billion, a 33% year-over-year increase.
在第11頁投影片,我們來談談信貸表現。我們將信貸視為推動銀行與支付業務雙線互動的策略性引擎,能帶動更深的交易活動並釋放具意義的交叉銷售機會。第四季,我們的信貸總投資組合達46億巴西雷亞爾(BRL),同比增長33%。
Since the second half of 2024, we have been gradually accelerating underwriting for unsecured products with a particular focus on working capital. This progress reflects ongoing improvements in our risk assessment and collections capabilities increasingly supported by AI.
自2024年下半年起,我們逐步加速無擔保產品的承作(underwriting),並特別聚焦於營運資金。這項進展反映我們在風險評估與催收能力上的持續改善,且愈來愈多由AI提供支援。
While originating typically slows in the fourth quarter due to the seasonal pattern. Working capital originations were still 26% higher than in Q3, showing a healthy and consistent traction. When we include financial operations linked to merchant prepayment supported by our instant settlement feature, our expanded credit portfolio now approaches BRL50 billion, up 3% over the last 12 months despite lower volumes.
雖然受季節性影響,第四季的放款承作通常會放緩。但營運資金放款仍較第三季高出26%,顯示健康且一致的成長動能。若納入與商戶預付款相關、並由我們即時結算功能支援的金融作業,我們的擴大信貸投資組合目前接近500億巴西雷亞爾(BRL),在交易量較低的情況下,過去12個月仍增長3%。
Turning to asset quality, as shown on the bottom right of the slide, our NPL 90 ratio remains well below market average due to our disciplined approach to risk and product mix. The small increase we observe is a natural consequence of the greater mix of unsecured products in the portfolio.
就資產品質而言,如投影片右下角所示,我們的90天以上不良貸款(NPL 90)比率仍明顯低於市場平均,這得益於我們在風險與產品組合上的嚴謹策略。我們觀察到的小幅上升,是投資組合中無擔保產品占比提高的自然結果。
On the next slide, we present the continued strength of our deposit base and the progress we are making in improving our funding efficiency. During the quarter, total deposits reached more than BRL40 billion, growing 13% year over year, a resilient performance despite the macro environment. deposits are the cores of our funding structure.
下一張投影片,我們展示存款基礎的持續強勁,以及我們在提升資金效率方面取得的進展。本季存款總額超過400億巴西雷亞爾(BRL),同比增長13%;在宏觀環境影響下仍展現韌性。存款是我們資金結構的核心。
In this quarter, we saw a meaningful shift towards on-platform deposits which reached 95% of the total, reinforcing strong client engagement and the growing relevance of our digital channels. Importantly, this was the seventh consecutive quarter of reduction in our funding cost as a percentage of the CDI. This range highlights the effectiveness of our strategy to broaden and diversify our funding mix with cost efficiency, and it contributes to the resilience of our liability structure and support the expansion of our credit portfolio.
本季我們看到存款明顯轉向平台內存款,平台內存款占總存款的95%,進一步強化客戶黏著度與我們數位渠道日益提升的重要性。重要的是,以CDI百分比衡量的資金成本已連續第七季下降。這一區間凸顯我們擴大並多元化資金來源、同時提升成本效率的策略成效;也增強了負債結構的韌性,並支持信貸投資組合的擴張。
Finally, as shown on the right-hand side of the slide, our loan to funding rate to improve from 113% last year to 111% this quarter as we continue to grow credit with caution and prioritize a well-balanced structure.
最後,如投影片右側所示,我們的放款對資金比率由去年113%改善至本季111%;我們在審慎擴張信貸的同時,優先維持結構的均衡。
With that, I will hand it over to Gustavo, who will walk you through the financial highlights of the quarter of 2025. Gustavo, please?
接下來我把時間交給Gustavo,他將帶大家回顧2025年本季的財務重點。Gustavo,請?
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Mauad. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Let's focus now on our consolidated financial results.
謝謝,Mauad。各位好,感謝今天加入我們。現在讓我們聚焦於合併財務結果。
In this first slide, as a consequence of the increase in transactionality and engagement, total revenue and income, net of interchange and card scheme fees reached BRL3.5 billion in the fourth quarter, up 12% year over year. This performance captures the expansion of the banking business and also the repricing measures we began implementing in the payment at the end of 2024, which has been essential to offset higher financial costs and to reinforce the sustainability of our revenue base.
在第一張投影片中,受交易活躍度與參與度提升的帶動,扣除交換費(interchange)與卡組織費用後的總營收與收入於第四季達35億巴西雷亞爾(BRL),同比增長12%。此表現反映銀行業務的擴張,以及我們於2024年底開始在支付業務推行的重新定價措施;這對抵銷較高的財務成本並強化營收基礎的可持續性至關重要。
It is very important to highlight that revenue growth has once again outpaced TPV, showing that our pricing strategy effectively supported profitability. Disciplined execution drove resilient results in 2025 position us to sustain solid performance into 2026 despite macro uncertainty.
非常重要的是,營收增長再次超越TPV,顯示我們的定價策略有效支撐了獲利能力。2025年的嚴謹執行帶來具韌性的成果,使我們即使面對宏觀不確定性,仍有望在2026年維持穩健表現。
Banking revenue reached BRL757 million, growing over 7%, year over year, driven by the expansion of our credit portfolio, higher engagement and stronger monetization supported by the positive growth and increased fee generation particularly from card usage and account-related services. As a result, banking gross profit grew 54% year over year with a 72% margin of revenues.
銀行業務營收達7.57億巴西雷亞爾(BRL),同比增長逾7%,主要由信貸投資組合擴張、更高的客戶參與度與更強的變現能力所驅動;這得益於正向成長與費用收入增加,尤其來自卡片使用與帳戶相關服務。因此,銀行業務毛利同比增長54%,毛利率為營收的72%。
The combination of stronger banking results and our repricing efforts helped partially offset the impact of higher interest rates throughout the year. Consolidated gross profit reached BRL2.1 billion for the quarter, an increase of 8.7% year over year when we exclude the negative effect of BRL54 million of buyback and dividend distributions.
更強勁的銀行業務表現與我們的重新定價措施相結合,協助部分抵銷全年利率上升的影響。本季合併毛利達21億巴西雷亞爾(BRL);若排除回購與股利分配造成的5,400萬巴西雷亞爾(BRL)負面影響,同比增長8.7%。
Turning to the next slide. Fourth quarter delivered operational leverage, reflecting continued efficient gains across the platform. Our disciplined approach to managing expenses and deliver operational leverage remains a key pillar of our strategy, and it played an important role in helping us navigate the impact of higher financial costs in this period, allowing us to balance sustainable growth with continued profitability.
接著看下一張投影片。第四季展現營運槓桿,反映平台各面向持續提升效率。我們在費用管理上的紀律,以及持續交付營運槓桿,仍是策略的關鍵支柱;在此期間也在協助我們應對較高財務成本的影響方面扮演重要角色,使我們能在可持續成長與持續獲利之間取得平衡。
On the cost side, financial costs increased 39% year over year, driven mainly by the higher interest rate environment and the effects of recent capital structure adjustments as highlighted earlier. On the other hand, sequentially, financial costs reduced 1% due to the progress we have made in diversifying our funding structure and reducing our funding costs.
在成本端,財務成本同比增加39%,主要受較高利率環境以及先前提到的近期資本結構調整影響。另一方面,按季比較,財務成本下降1%,反映我們在多元化資金結構與降低資金成本方面取得的進展。
At the same time, total losses declined 8%, reflecting improvements in our loyal customers and onboarding process, which led to fewer chargebacks. This benefit was partially offset by the natural increase in expected credit losses as we continue to accelerate our credit operation.
同時,總損失下降8%,反映我們在忠誠客戶與導入(onboarding)流程上的改善,進而降低退單(chargebacks)。然而,隨著我們持續加速信貸業務,預期信用損失自然增加,部分抵銷了上述效益。
Operating expenses decreased 2% year over year, clearly showing our commitment to efficient cost management. This reduction reflects lower personnel expenses and more disciplined marketing investments. As a result, operating leverage improved significantly by 320 basis points compared to the same period last year.
營運費用同比下降2%,清楚展現我們對高效率成本管理的承諾。此降幅反映人事費用降低,以及更具紀律的行銷投入。因此,營運槓桿較去年同期顯著改善320個基點。
Moving on to the next slide. We reported non-GAAP net income of BRL678 million in the quarter, represents 7% year-over-year growth and an increase of 16% on our EPS diluted.
接著看下一張投影片。本季我們的非GAAP淨利為6.78億巴西雷亞爾(BRL),同比增長7%,稀釋後每股盈餘(EPS)增加16%。
On the right side of the slide, you can see our return on average equity improving by 100 basis points year over year, reaching 18.4% compared to 17.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Even with the conservative capital structure, we have consistently managed to deliver solid returns, and it becomes clear the positive impact in this metric as we progress in improving our capital structure as shown in the next slide.
在投影片右側,您可以看到平均股東權益報酬率(ROAE)同比提升100個基點,達18.4%,高於2024年第四季的17.3%。即使在保守的資本結構下,我們仍持續交出穩健回報;隨著我們如下一張投影片所示持續改善資本結構,這項指標的正面影響也愈發明顯。
Now, moving on to the next slide. Let's focus on the initiatives that drive shareholder value and improve our capital structure. In order to achieve our Basel index target level of 18% to 22% in the next coming years, we have used not only dividends, but also buyback as an additional tool to enhance shareholder value as it can be adjusted to market conditions and liquidity.
現在進入下一張投影片。讓我們聚焦於推動股東價值並改善資本結構的各項措施。為了在未來幾年達成巴塞爾指數目標區間18%至22%,我們不僅運用股利,也將庫藏股回購作為提升股東價值的額外工具,因其可依市場狀況與流動性進行調整。
In our point of view, dividends offer stability and predictability while buybacks provide tactical flexibility, and it's important to use both tools to improve our capital structure. Throughout 2025, we maintained a consistent momentum in our buyback program, repurchasing over 27 million shares.
以我們的觀點來看,股利提供穩定性與可預測性,而庫藏股回購則提供戰術上的彈性;同時運用這兩項工具以優化我們的資本結構至關重要。在整個2025年,我們維持回購計畫的穩定動能,回購超過2,700萬股。
In February, 5 million common shares held in treasury were canceled. Furthermore, we paid BRL617 million in cash dividends during 2025 and in 2026 last month, roughly BRL200 million out of the BRL1.4 billion dividend announced for the year were already paid. The remaining balance will be distributed in three tranches over the course of this year. This schedule reinforced the consistency of our capital return framework and our focus on predictable value creation.
2月,我們註銷了庫藏持有的500萬股普通股。此外,我們在2025年支付了6.17億巴西雷亞爾的現金股利,而在2026年上個月,已支付了今年宣布的14億巴西雷亞爾股利中的約2億巴西雷亞爾。剩餘餘額將於今年內分三期發放。此一時程強化了我們資本回饋架構的一致性,以及我們對可預測價值創造的聚焦。
Let me address our CET1 and the impacts from the new regulatory tax framework. Due to the tax framework approved last year, a new 10% withholding tax on intra-group dividends is effective in Brazil. Dividends declared by the end of December 2025 will remain exempt from this tax provided they are effectively paid by 2028. This transition rule gave companies the ability to optimize internal capital flows ahead of the new framework, and we are managing this process in a disciplined manner.
我來說明我們的CET1以及新監管稅制架構帶來的影響。由於去年核准的稅制架構,巴西對集團內股利新增10%的預扣稅並已生效。截至2025年12月底前宣告的股利,只要在2028年前實際支付,仍可免徵此稅。這項過渡規則讓企業能在新架構上路前優化內部資本流動,而我們正以嚴謹自律的方式管理此流程。
As a result, in the fourth quarter of 2025, we declared dividends in certain subsidiaries, reducing the equity component of our regulatory capital at the entity level, while the consolidated capital base remained stable. Our Basel index ratio decreased temporarily this quarter, placing our Basel index below our intended target of 18%, 22%.
因此,在2025年第四季,我們在部分子公司宣告股利,使得個體層級的監管資本中權益組成下降,但合併資本基礎仍維持穩定。我們的巴塞爾指標比率在本季暫時下降,使巴塞爾指標低於我們原先設定的18%至22%目標區間。
It's important to highlight that this effect is purely accounting driven and does not impact on our cash position nor our ability to support growth. The reallocation of excess capital is consistent with our long-term capital efficiency strategy. As we look ahead, the actions we took in 2025 position us well for the next phase of this plan and sustainable growth and strengthens our ability to navigate 2026 with confidence.
需要強調的是,這項影響純屬會計因素所致,並不影響我們的現金部位,也不影響我們支持成長的能力。重新配置超額資本符合我們長期資本效率策略。展望未來,我們在2025年採取的行動,使我們在此計畫的下一階段與永續成長上具備良好定位,並強化我們以信心因應2026年的能力。
Bearing that in mind, let's move to the next slide, where we outline our 2026 guidance and walk through the key drivers that will shape our performance expectations for the year. This includes the operational priorities, credit initiatives and efficiency opportunities that support our trajectory and reinforce the foundations for long-term value creation.
基於此,讓我們進到下一張投影片,我們將說明2026年指引,並帶大家走過將形塑今年績效預期的關鍵驅動因素。其中包括營運優先事項、授信倡議與效率提升機會,這些都支持我們的發展軌跡,並鞏固長期價值創造的基礎。
Starting this year, we are evolving the way we communicate with the market by aligning our annual guidance with our long-term ambition for 2029. This shift reflects the confidence we have in the structural levers of our business and the visibility we have built into our key growth drivers.
自今年起,我們正調整與市場溝通的方式,將年度指引與我們對2029年的長期願景對齊。這項轉變反映我們對業務結構性槓桿的信心,以及我們在關鍵成長驅動因素上建立的能見度。
In this context, our full-year guidance will focus on four pillars: the expansion of our credit portfolio, the acceleration of gross profit, the continued progress toward delivering non-GAAP diluted EPS, and also capital expenditure, all in line with our long-term path.
在此背景下,我們的全年指引將聚焦四大支柱:授信組合擴張、毛利加速成長、持續推進非GAAP稀釋每股盈餘(EPS)的交付,以及資本支出,皆與我們的長期路徑一致。
We expect our 2026 credit portfolio growth to be in the range of 25% to 35%, supported by the expansion of underwriting in our core credit products, including working capital. Gross profit growth outlook is expected to be in the range of 6% to 9%, reflecting an increased contribution on our banking segment in a still pressured financial cost scenario.
我們預期2026年授信組合成長介於25%至35%,主要由核心授信產品(包含營運資金)承作擴張所支撐。毛利成長展望預期介於6%至9%,反映在金融成本仍受壓的情境下,我們銀行業務部門貢獻提升。
Diluted non-GAAP EPS is expected to be in the range of 9% to 13%, consistent with our long-term profitability road map and the operational efficiency we are driving across the company. Finally, capital expenditure is expected to be in the range of BRL1.8 billion and BRL2.0 billion, reflecting our focus on efficiency and disciplined approach.
非GAAP稀釋EPS預期介於9%至13%,與我們長期獲利路線圖一致,也反映我們在全公司推動的營運效率。最後,資本支出預期介於18億至20億巴西雷亞爾,反映我們對效率的聚焦與自律的執行方式。
With that, I will invite Mauad for the closing remarks.
接下來,我邀請Mauad做結語。
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Gustavo. Before we conclude, let's move to the next slide for a few final remarks. First, we can see credit growth accelerate, supported by discipline in underwriting and healthy asset quality. The continued momentum in our unsecured working capital solutions, driven primarily by our own active client base reinforces both the relevance of our products and the quality of the risk management approach.
謝謝你,Gustavo。在我們結束之前,讓我們到下一張投影片做幾點最後說明。首先,我們看到授信成長加速,這得益於嚴謹的授信審核與健康的資產品質。我們無擔保營運資金解決方案的動能持續,主要由我們自有的活躍客戶群所驅動,這同時強化了產品的相關性以及風險管理方法的品質。
Secondly, acquiring volumes have been recovering steadily since mid-third quarter, marking a clear inflection point. This recovery is now consolidating into a strong foundation for positive trends as we move into 2026, reflecting healthier client activity and the effectiveness of our commercial initiatives.
第二,收單交易量自第三季中期以來穩步回升,標誌著明確的拐點。隨著我們邁入2026年,這波復甦正逐步鞏固為正向趨勢的堅實基礎,反映客戶活動更健康,以及我們商業推動措施的有效性。
And finally, improved funding efficiency and consistent cost control have played an important role in protecting margins. These efforts allowed us to sustain net income growth even in a still challenging interest rate environment. Together, these elements demonstrated our ability to execute with discipline, manage macroeconomic pressure, and continue advancing our long-term goals.
最後,資金取得效率的改善與一致的成本控管,在保護利潤率方面扮演了重要角色。即使在利率環境仍具挑戰的情況下,這些努力也讓我們得以維持淨利成長。綜合而言,這些要素展現了我們以紀律執行、管理總體經濟壓力並持續推進長期目標的能力。
As a reminder, our 2029 strategic targets include BRL25 billion in credit portfolio with a balanced mix of secured and unsecured products, emphasizing working capital loans and AI-enabled solutions such as private payroll and PIX financing, above 10% gross profit CAGR driven by stronger banking contribution, cross-sell opportunities and efficiency gains and above 16% EPS CAGR as we continue converting growth and operational improvements into consistent shareholders' returns. These target reflects our confidence in the scalability of our platform and the strength of our execution.
提醒一下,我們2029年的策略目標包括:授信組合達250億巴西雷亞爾,並在有擔保與無擔保產品間維持均衡配置,強調營運資金貸款與AI賦能的解決方案(如私營薪資代扣與PIX融資);毛利年複合成長率(CAGR)超過10%,由更強的銀行業務貢獻、交叉銷售機會與效率提升所驅動;以及EPS年複合成長率超過16%,持續將成長與營運改善轉化為穩定的股東報酬。這些目標反映我們對平台可擴展性的信心,以及我們執行力的強度。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Mario Pierry, Bank of America.
(接線員指示)美國銀行的Mario Pierry。
Mario Pierry - Analyst
Mario Pierry - Analyst
Hi, guys. Good evening. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to focus on your gross profit guidance of 6% to 9%. Trying to understand because this looks conservative to us because, as you mentioned, your TPV growth accelerated quarter over quarter to 10%. However, you're guiding for 6% to 9%.
嗨,各位。晚安。謝謝讓我提問。我想聚焦在你們6%到9%的毛利指引。我試著理解,因為這看起來對我們而言偏保守;如你們提到的,你們的TPV成長率季對季加速到10%。但你們卻指引6%到9%。
And then when we think about your financial expenses in 2026, they should be coming down as rates come down. So I'm trying to understand, are you expecting a slowdown revenue growth, or what kind of SELIC rates do you have embedded on your forecast? And maybe that's the reason why gross profit is growing single digits.
另外,當我們看你們2026年的財務費用,隨著利率下行,費用應該會下降。所以我想理解的是:你們是否預期營收成長放緩?或者你們的預測中隱含了怎樣的SELIC利率?也許這就是毛利僅呈現個位數成長的原因。
And again, right, this number is below your medium-term outlook of at least 10% growth. And trying to understand then what gives you confidence that this growth can accelerate going forward? I understand that you're introducing more banking products and you're accelerating the credit product. But I just wanted to understand a little bit better the single-digit growth in gross profit. Thank you.
再者,這個數字也低於你們中期展望中至少10%的成長。因此我想了解,什麼讓你們有信心未來成長可以再加速?我理解你們正在推出更多銀行產品並加速授信產品。但我只是想更清楚理解毛利個位數成長的原因。謝謝。
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Hi, Mario. It's Gustavo here. Thank you for your question. You are right that we are posting for this year lower gross profit when we compare it to our long-term ambition. But you're going to remember that when we release our long-term ambition and also given to the macro uncertainty that we are right now facing and still facing, we should assume that the performance in 2026 should be a little bit below the long-term ambition.
嗨,Mario。我是Gustavo。謝謝你的提問。你說得對,與我們的長期願景相比,我們今年給出的毛利較低。但你會記得,當我們發布長期願景時,同時也考量到我們目前正面臨、且仍在面臨的宏觀不確定性,因此我們應假設2026年的表現會略低於長期願景。
And also, it's important to consider as we ramp up the credit business, it also consumes higher provisions and also reduce the gross profit and also reduce the EPS in the first year of our long-term ambition trend. But we are totally confident that we are on track to deliver the long-term ambition in all lines, credit as we posted, the EPS CAGR and also the gross profit CAGR.
此外,當我們加速發展信貸業務時,也必須考量到它會消耗更高的提存,並在我們長期願景趨勢的第一年降低毛利,同時也會降低每股盈餘(EPS)。但我們完全有信心,我們正按計畫在各條業務線上交付長期願景:如我們所公布的信貸、EPS 複合年成長率(CAGR),以及毛利複合年成長率(CAGR)。
When we talk about the SELIC rate, that's very important when we talk about the financial cost. When we look and what we expect for 2026, despite that we will face cuts in the interest rate along the year, the average SELIC probably is going to be quite close to the 2005 SELIC rate. And at the same time, we also assume that and included that in our 2026 guidance.
當我們談到 SELIC 利率時,這在討論資金成本時非常重要。就我們對 2026 年的預期而言,儘管全年將面臨降息,但 SELIC 的平均水準很可能會相當接近 2005 年的 SELIC 利率。同時,我們也做了這樣的假設,並已將其納入我們的 2026 年指引。
Mario Pierry - Analyst
Mario Pierry - Analyst
Okay. And Gustavo, let me follow up then when we look at your EPS, right, growing faster than gross profit, then you are implying, I think, efficiency gains here. If you can just explore a little bit where these efficiency gains are coming from? And just to be sure, the EPS of 9% to 13% does not imply right a reduction in the share count, correct?
好的。Gustavo,讓我追問一下:當我們看你的 EPS 成長速度快於毛利時,我理解你是在暗示效率提升。你能否稍微說明一下,這些效率提升主要來自哪裡?另外確認一下,EPS 9% 到 13% 的指引並不代表股份數量會減少,對嗎?
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, you are right. We are not assuming the same share base for the EPS guidance. And also, we are considering continue to generate operational leverage through our operation. We understand that we have different initiatives that we are working on. Some of them we put in place, and all of those initiatives will deliver a continuous operation leverage.
是的,你說得對。我們在 EPS 指引中並未假設相同的股本基數。同時,我們也在考量透過營運持續產生營運槓桿。我們理解目前正在推進不同的計畫。其中一些已經落地,而所有這些計畫都將帶來持續的營運槓桿。
Operator
Operator
Guilherme Grespan, JPMorgan.
Guilherme Grespan,摩根大通(JPMorgan)。
Guilherme Grespan - Analyst
Guilherme Grespan - Analyst
Just one clarification before I jump into my question. The EPS guidance, should I read it as same share count, meaning EPS is the same as earnings growth or should I dilute it with the buyback of the year? This is just a clarification.
在我進入問題之前先澄清一點。EPS 指引我應該解讀為股份數量不變,也就是 EPS 等同於獲利成長;還是應該把當年的回購因素納入、以稀釋後口徑來看?這只是想先確認一下。
And then my question is actually on the TPV recovery. It was a nice quarter. Just want to get your views and update on what is the diagnosis you have on why you're missing clients and potentially having churn and what you sold so far?
接著我的問題其實是關於 TPV 的回升。這是一個不錯的季度。想請你們分享一下看法並更新:你們對於為何正在流失客戶、可能出現客戶流失(churn),以及你們目前為止做了哪些事情的診斷是什麼?
And looking ahead, if it still has any bottleneck that you feel that you need to fix? And basically, this whole diagnosis with what is happening, what you already did and what's still to be done in early 2026?
展望未來,你們是否仍覺得有任何需要修復的瓶頸?基本上,想了解整體診斷:目前發生了什麼、你們已經做了什麼,以及在 2026 年初還有哪些事情需要完成?
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Gustavo again. Thank you for your question. Just to make clear, we are not considering the buyback in our EPS. So if we continue and we intend to continue working on our buyback program, it will be dilutive for the EPS.
我再回答一次,我是 Gustavo。謝謝你的提問。先說清楚,我們在 EPS 中沒有考慮回購。因此,如果我們持續、且我們也打算持續推進回購計畫,這將會對 EPS 產生稀釋影響。
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
And thank you for your question here. This is Mauad. Regarding the TPV recovery, we did have some operational enhancements on the second half of last year. We deployed our new logistics operations by August. We are reviewing everything related to the set of terminals that we have with our customers.
也謝謝你的問題。我是 Mauad。關於 TPV 的回升,我們在去年下半年做了一些營運面的強化。我們在 8 月部署了新的物流營運。我們正在檢視與客戶所使用的終端機組合相關的一切。
The banking platform is gaining quality and a new set of products. So everything that we are doing here under the operational perspective is helping up to keep up with the customer database and to recovery TPV.
銀行平台的品質正在提升,並新增一系列產品。因此,從營運角度來看,我們所做的一切都有助於維持客戶資料庫並推動 TPV 回升。
Remembering that on the last call that we had with you guys here, we mentioned that the low part of the curve in terms of TPV was in August, and we keep seeing the recovery month after month. And on the beginning of this year here, we keep seeing the same movement that we saw throughout the second half of the year.
回顧一下,在上次與各位的電話會議中,我們提到 TPV 曲線的低點出現在 8 月,而我們持續看到 TPV 逐月回升。在今年年初,我們也持續看到與去年下半年相同的走勢。
Richardo Da Silva - Principal Executive Officer
Richardo Da Silva - Principal Executive Officer
And just to complement here, remember, we -- of course, TPV is one of the metrics that we follow here. but TPV per se is not the main metric. We look at the revenues that we've been growing year over year. We reached 16% revenue growth. If you consider the financial services companies in Brazil, including fintechs and banks, is one of the largest growth in the year. So we are trying to do here to optimize the growth of TPV combined with revenues and combined with gross profit.
再補充一下:當然,TPV 是我們追蹤的指標之一,但 TPV 本身並不是最主要的指標。我們看的是營收的年增成長。我們達到 16% 的營收成長。若把巴西的金融服務公司(包括金融科技與銀行)都納入比較,這是當年成長幅度最大的之一。因此,我們在此要做的是:在 TPV、營收與毛利之間做組合式的成長最佳化。
Guilherme Grespan - Analyst
Guilherme Grespan - Analyst
That's clear. Indeed, the gross profit had a rebound, right? It went from 2% year over year to 7%, 8%.
了解。確實毛利出現反彈,對吧?年增從 2% 回升到 7%、8%。
Operator
Operator
Arnon Shirazi, Citi.
Arnon Shirazi,花旗(Citi)。
Arnon Shirazi - Analyst
Arnon Shirazi - Analyst
I have two brief questions. The first one is related to the NPL increase compared to 3Q. We saw 30 basis deterioration. What's behind that?
我有兩個簡短問題。第一個與不良貸款(NPL)相較於第三季的上升有關。我們看到惡化了 30 個基點。背後原因是什麼?
And my second one is related to the CapEx guidance for '26. It is expected to be below '25 in BRL400 million. What's behind that?
第二個問題與 2026 年的資本支出(CapEx)指引有關。預期將比 2025 年低 4 億巴西雷亞爾(BRL)。背後原因是什麼?
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Arnon, this is Gustavo. Our CapEx guidance for this year includes a reduction or savings around BRL4 million when compared to last year. And basically because we are implementing some initiatives, as I said in the first question of Mario, not related only the OpEx, but also related to the CapEx that we intend to deploy along through the year, and it will reduce both the demand for POS and also the demand for technology investments that we have in plan.
Arnon,我是 Gustavo。我們今年的 CapEx 指引包含相較去年約 400 萬巴西雷亞爾(BRL)的降低或節省。基本上是因為我們正在推動一些計畫——如我在 Mario 的第一個問題中提到的——不僅與營運費用(OpEx)相關,也與我們計畫在全年部署的 CapEx 相關;這將同時降低對 POS 的需求,以及降低我們規劃中的科技投資需求。
Richardo Da Silva - Principal Executive Officer
Richardo Da Silva - Principal Executive Officer
Can you repeat the first part of the question because it cut a little bit of connection here. First part of the question, please.
你能重複一下問題的第一部分嗎?因為這裡連線有點斷斷續續。請再說一次第一部分的問題。
Arnon Shirazi - Analyst
Arnon Shirazi - Analyst
No, problem at all. We saw a 30 basis deterioration in NPLs in this fourth quarter. What's behind that trend?
沒問題。我們在第四季看到 NPL 惡化了 30 個基點。這個趨勢背後原因是什麼?
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
Here, it's Mauad. I'm just going to make sure if I understood it right. You were asking about the NPL 30 bps that we saw quarter over quarter, right? So I'm getting to that. We have I would say, two main effects here.
這裡是 Mauad。我先確認一下我是否理解正確。你是在問我們看到的 NPL 季對季上升 30 個基點,對嗎?我來回答這點。我認為主要有兩個影響因素。
First, it is the new regulation here where we keep accruing interest revenues until 90 days that makes the balances to go up. So that's an artificial movement due to the regulatory milestone and plus there is the unsecured products that we are deploying that pushes the NPL 90 a little bit up. Remembering that we have pretty much half of the industry in terms of NPL that's leaving us a lot of room to keep pushing up our credit outstanding.
第一,是新的監管規定:我們會持續計提利息收入直到 90 天,這會使餘額上升。因此,這是由監管里程碑所造成的人為變動;另外,我們正在推出的無擔保產品也會使 90 天 NPL 略為上升。請記得,我們的 NPL 大約只有產業的一半,這讓我們在持續推升放款餘額方面仍有很大的空間。
Arnon Shirazi - Analyst
Arnon Shirazi - Analyst
Great, thank you. If I may, just a follow-up on CapEx. You mentioned that we will reduce demand for POS. What is driving that? Is it going to be tap on phone or anything else? Why would it reduce the demand?
太好了,謝謝。如果可以的話,我想就資本支出(CapEx)再追問一下。你提到我們會降低對 POS 的需求。是什麼在驅動這件事?會是手機感應支付(tap on phone)或其他因素嗎?為什麼會降低需求?
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
So here, there are many factors that we are working on under the product perspective and under the logistics perspective that help us out to optimize the terminal CapEx. So we are developing here a reverse logistics to make sure that every time we have to replace a terminal, we get the terminal that carries a kind of problem to remanufacture that and to reinclude that on our logistic network.
在這裡,從產品面與物流面的角度來看,我們正在推進許多因素,幫助我們優化終端機的資本支出。我們正在建立逆向物流,確保每次需要更換終端機時,我們都能回收帶有某種問題的終端機,進行再製造,並重新納入我們的物流網路。
And on top of it, we also have the tap on phone that helps out, especially on the terminals that are simpler to create this CapEx saving over time. So here, when you see a number which is below what we have on 2025, there is no customer impact. In fact, we are going to keep pushing forward the customer database throughout 2026.
此外,我們也有手機感應支付(tap on phone),特別是在較簡單的終端機上,能隨時間帶來這些 CapEx 節省。因此,當你看到某個數字低於我們在 2025 年的水準時,對客戶不會有影響。事實上,我們會在 2026 年持續推進客戶資料庫的擴張。
Operator
Operator
Kaio Prato, UBS.
Kaio Prato,瑞銀(UBS)。
Kaio Prato - Analyst
Kaio Prato - Analyst
Hello, everyone. Good evening. first, before my question, if I can just clarify if the -- so the EPS, the non-GAAP growth that you mentioned is basically today considered the same as the net income.
各位好。晚安。首先,在我提問之前,我想確認一下——你提到的 EPS、非 GAAP 的成長,基本上今天是被視為與淨利相同嗎?
And also, you basically sent us like the guidance on the non-GAAP. Just would like to understand if you are assuming same level of share-based compensation for 2026 or if we can see any acceleration? And then I can follow up with my question, please.
另外,你們基本上也給了我們非 GAAP 的指引。我想了解你們是否假設 2026 年的股份基礎薪酬(share-based compensation)維持同一水準,或我們是否會看到加速?然後我再接著問我的問題,謝謝。
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Hi. Gustavo, again. Yes, we are considering for the EPS as the base, the net income non-GAAP as the base for calculation for the EPS. And also, as I said, we consider we're going to consider the number of shares that we will find in each period that we are going to calculate.
你好。我是 Gustavo,再次回答。是的,我們在 EPS 的基礎上,是以非 GAAP 淨利作為 EPS 計算的基礎。另外,如我所說,我們也會以各期計算時所對應的流通股數來計算。
So that's very important to consider that because in both case, as we have been balancing buybacks and dividend, we understand that it is better to track the EPS trend and also it consider better. It eliminates the long-term investment -- long-term plan that we have here in the company. So we reduced that variable for the calculation of the EPS.
這點非常重要,因為在兩種情況下,當我們在回購與股利之間做平衡時,我們認為追蹤 EPS 的趨勢更好,也更合適。它會排除我們公司這裡的長期投資——長期計畫。因此我們在 EPS 的計算中降低了那個變數的影響。
When I said the share-based compensation, okay, just to make it clear. So it eliminates when we use the net income non-GAAP, it eliminates for the EPS calculation, the share-based remuneration.
我提到股份基礎薪酬時,好的,為了說清楚。當我們使用非 GAAP 淨利時,在 EPS 的計算上會排除股份基礎報酬。
Kaio Prato - Analyst
Kaio Prato - Analyst
Yes. But just wondering if there is any potential acceleration on the share base just to understand what would be the gap?
是的。但我只是想了解,股份基礎是否有任何可能加速,以便理解差距會是多少?
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
No. We could assume the same levels. We do not have any plan to accelerate that.
沒有。我們可以假設維持相同水準。我們沒有任何加速的計畫。
Kaio Prato - Analyst
Kaio Prato - Analyst
Okay. Great. And in terms of like my main question would be on your engagement metrics. I think all of them were quite good this quarter. So encouraging trends across the board. And my question is, especially in the banking, if you can break down this metric between pure individuals and actually pure merchants. So just wondering about the performance of each of them.
好的。太好了。那我主要的問題是關於你們的互動(engagement)指標。我認為本季所有指標都相當不錯。整體都有令人鼓舞的趨勢。我的問題是,特別是在銀行業務上,你們能否把這個指標拆分為純個人客戶與純商戶?我想了解兩者各自的表現。
And in your strategy, I would like to understand how relevant can be individuals actually only going forward? Any metric that you can share in terms of engagement, especially on pure individuals would be good.
在你們的策略中,我也想了解未來純個人客戶的相關性會有多高?若能分享任何關於互動的指標,特別是純個人客戶的,會很有幫助。
And if you can link that in terms of the expectation on the breakdown of your portfolio by the end of 2026. You already sent the guidance in terms of growth, but it would be interesting to see how could be the breakdown of that in terms of working capital for merchants and also individuals.
另外,如果可以的話,也請把這與你們對 2026 年底投資組合拆分的預期連結起來。你們已經提供了成長指引,但若能看到在營運資金(working capital)方面,商戶與個人各自可能的拆分會很有意思。
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. We are not guiding exactly those numbers like between individuals and entrepreneurs here. But I can assure you that both are growing, both are gaining engaging. And remembering that for the kind of customers that we have, especially on the payment side, the individual, the SMB is pretty much the same, let's say, the same set of products or the same set of needs that those customers has.
是的。我們沒有精確指引這些數字,例如個人與創業者之間的拆分。但我可以向你保證,兩者都在成長、兩者的互動也都在提升。而且要記得,對於我們的客戶類型,特別是在支付端,個人與中小企業(SMB)基本上是相同的——可以說是同一套產品或同一組需求。
But again, when we take a look at the product evolution here, we have initiatives on both sides on payments, on credit products for small enterprises and for individuals also as the private payroll loan and that it already started to pilot inside the company.
但再說一次,當我們看產品演進時,我們在兩端都有推動的計畫:支付端、針對小型企業與個人的信貸產品,以及像是私人薪資貸款(private payroll loan),目前也已在公司內部開始試點。
So sorry that I couldn't answer completely your question. But again, it is something that is growing on both sides.
所以很抱歉我無法完整回答你的問題。但再強調一次,這兩端都在成長。
Operator
Operator
Thiago Paura, BTG.
Thiago Paura,BTG。
I believe he left the queue.
我相信他已經離開隊列了。
Tito Labarta, Goldman Sachs.
Tito Labarta,高盛(Goldman Sachs)。
Tito Labarta - Analyst
Tito Labarta - Analyst
Good evening. Thank you for taking my question. Just a follow-up, I guess, more on the capital return. Gustavo you mentioned, I guess you're assuming a similar share count. I mean we know you have the dividend, which is around 8% yield and you completed 70% of the buyback. So if you complete the other 30%, that's maybe another 2% of shares. But should we assume that any additional buyback, or like how are you thinking about capital return beyond that? Is that it for 2026? And then we should start thinking about further buybacks or dividends more in 2027, or is there a potential for additional buybacks perhaps in 2026?
晚安。謝謝讓我提問。我想追問一下,應該更多是關於資本回饋。Gustavo,你提到你們大概假設股數相近。我們知道你們有股利,殖利率大約 8%,而且你們已完成 70% 的回購。所以如果把剩下 30% 也完成,可能還會再回購約 2% 的股份。但我們是否應該假設還會有任何額外回購?或者你們如何看待在此之外的資本回饋?2026 年就到此為止嗎?然後我們應該在 2027 年再開始思考進一步的回購或更高股利?還是 2026 年可能還有額外回購?
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Hi, Tito. It's Gustavo here. I think that as you mentioned, we have been working on the buyback at the same time as we have been working on dividends. And we intend to use both tools and try to balance both tools because that's important to -- they give us some flexibility in terms of when we use buyback and also dividends, they bring some stability in terms of return.
你好,Tito。我是 Gustavo。我想如你所提到的,我們一直在進行回購,同時也在發放股利。我們打算同時使用這兩種工具,並嘗試在兩者之間取得平衡,因為這很重要——回購在使用時點上給我們一些彈性,而股利則在回報上帶來一些穩定性。
So we have the third buyback program that was launched last May. It remains open. we have been executing since then, approximately 80% of this buyback programs have been executed, and we're probably going to deploy the rest of this problem in the upcoming months.
我們在去年 5 月啟動了第三個回購計畫。該計畫仍然開放中。自那之後我們一直在執行,目前大約已執行該回購計畫的 80%,而我們可能會在接下來幾個月把剩餘部分也部署完成。
At the same time, it's very important to remember that we have released the BRL1.4 billion in terms of dividend that is going to be paid along this year in more three tranches. And just remember, last Friday, last February, we paid the first one of BRL200 million.
同時,也非常重要的是要記得,我們已宣布總計 14 億巴西雷亞爾(BRL1.4 billion)的股利,將在今年分三期支付。另外提醒一下,上週五、也就是 2 月,我們已支付第一期 2 億巴西雷亞爾(BRL200 million)。
Operator
Operator
Daniel Vaz, Safra.
Daniel Vaz,Safra。
Daniel Vaz - Analyst
Daniel Vaz - Analyst
Thank you, everyone. And thanks for the opportunity for questions. I'm looking at your credit portfolio guidance nearly at midpoint of 30% year over year. This implies, right? I think we've already covered that in your strategic update that the 2027 to 2029 window would be essentially a regime in changing pace, right? So it would not be a continuation of the current trajectory.
謝謝大家。也感謝提供提問的機會。我在看你們的信貸投組指引,年增率接近30%的中位數。這代表著,對吧?我想我們在你們的策略更新中已經提到,2027到2029這個區間基本上會是一個節奏改變的階段,對吧?所以不會是當前軌跡的延續。
So I wanted to understand further on your confidence and the macro assumptions you embed in that back-end acceleration, right? So what terminal SELIC rate are you using? And maybe how much of that growth is a function of the rate cycle rather than structurally achievable market share gains, right?
所以我想進一步了解,你們對於後段加速的信心,以及你們在其中納入的總體假設,對吧?你們使用的終端SELIC利率是多少?另外,這些成長有多少是利率循環帶來的,而不是結構性可達成的市占率提升所驅動的,對吧?
So that would be my question, and maybe I'll do a follow-up later. Thank you.
以上是我的問題,之後我可能會再追問。謝謝。
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
Hello. This is Mauad. Thank you for your question. We are looking pretty much at the same level as focus for the SELIC and at between like 12.5% and 13%.
你好。我是Mauad。謝謝你的提問。我們對SELIC的關注水準大致相同,約在12.5%到13%之間。
But again, there are many other matters that explain a lower growth on the first year of our long-term guidance here. There are the product evolution that we are deploying as we speak here with you guys. So there is a lot of products that are going to our value prop throughout the year.
但再次強調,還有許多其他因素可以解釋我們長期指引第一年較低的成長。我們正在部署產品演進,就像此刻與各位交流時所進行的一樣。因此,今年會有很多產品納入我們的價值主張。
So that is some learnings that are the credit strategy to be deployed. And that is the macroenvironment also that it is a little tougher.
所以這些是我們在推進信貸策略上的一些學習與部署。此外,總體環境也稍微更具挑戰。
So we expect that on 2027/2028 to be softer and have a better credit environment so we can evolve. So it is a mix between the macroenvironment, the product evolution, and the credit strategy to make sure that we have the right pace and the right credit performance to push the portfolio up to BRL25 billion.
因此我們預期在2027/2028會更溫和,且信貸環境更好,讓我們可以持續演進。所以這是總體環境、產品演進與信貸策略的綜合,確保我們以正確的節奏、並維持良好的信貸表現,把投組推升到250億巴西雷亞爾。
Richardo Da Silva - Principal Executive Officer
Richardo Da Silva - Principal Executive Officer
And just to complement, remember that the credit portfolio is based on different cohorts, and then we start making these cohorts in '25, '26 and there is stack up. So it's not a linear growth. That's why when we gave the update, the strategic update in September '25, we said that '26 would not grow on average the necessary pace to reach the BRL25 billion.
再補充一下,請記得信貸投組是基於不同的cohort(分群批次),我們從'25、'26開始建立這些cohort,之後會逐步疊加。所以它不是線性成長。這也是為什麼我們在9月'25的策略更新中說,'26的平均成長不會達到達成250億巴西雷亞爾所需的節奏。
So that's why we are giving this guidance 25% to 35%. Of course, it could be higher than that. But remember that effect that we have with the cohorts that can stack up. And also, I would like also to remember that today, we are operating with NPLs that are half of the industry average, which gave us comfort and room to grow and to accelerate in a sustainable way, not to one step forward, two step back. We're going to do it in a sustainable way.
因此我們給出25%到35%的指引。當然,也可能高於此。但請記得cohort疊加所帶來的效果。另外我也想提醒,今天我們的NPL(不良貸款)水準只有產業平均的一半,這讓我們更有信心、也有空間以可持續的方式成長與加速,而不是前進一步、後退兩步。我們會以可持續的方式來做。
And again, there's this mathematical or mechanical movement, the cohort is going to stack up and then it's going to grow not in a linear way in '27, '28.
再者,這裡也有數學上或機械式的變化:cohort會疊加,因此在'27、'28的成長不會是線性的。
Daniel Vaz - Analyst
Daniel Vaz - Analyst
And maybe a follow-up. So -- is the target -- basically, we're saying that the target is contingent on a constructive macro scenario, right? I guess everything you said on your perspective of better models, stronger underwriting, product development, but still contingent on the constructive macro, right?
我再追問一下。所以——目標——基本上我們是在說,這個目標取決於一個建設性的總體情境,對吧?我理解你們提到更好的模型、更強的授信審核、產品開發,但仍然取決於建設性的總體環境,對吧?
I mean if anything changes on the fiscal side on the trajectory of the interest rates, we would probably be looking at the revision for this number. Am I correct?
我的意思是,如果財政面或利率走勢有任何變化,我們可能就會看到這個數字被修正。我說得對嗎?
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. I think you -- you are right. It includes that mark uncertain. It's Gustavo here, just to clarify. So in our guidance, it includes that kind of market uncertainty that we are facing and that is room for acceleration. So as we -- as the macro brings more opportunities to grow, we are going to do that. So it's included.
是的。我想你——你說得對。它包含了那個市場不確定性。我是Gustavo,補充說明一下。所以在我們的指引中,已納入我們所面臨的這類市場不確定性,也保留了加速的空間。因此,當總體環境帶來更多成長機會時,我們就會去做。所以這已經包含在內。
Daniel Vaz - Analyst
Daniel Vaz - Analyst
No, pretty clear.
不,很清楚。
Richardo Da Silva - Principal Executive Officer
Richardo Da Silva - Principal Executive Officer
But just to complement, it's too far to plan when you think about two years ahead. Remember, we were in a scenario last week and last Saturday, we had a new war in the world in Middle East with oil prices going up and down. So there are many variables.
但再補充一下,當你想到兩年之後,要做規劃其實太遠了。記得我們上週還在某個情境下,而上週六世界在中東又爆發新的戰爭,油價上下波動。所以變數很多。
What we're trying to send the message here is that regardless of this macroeconomic movements, we're going to try to grow in a sustainable way. Of course, there's going to be cycles, credit cycles, but we are confident with the guidance for '26, and we are confident with the long-term ambition that BRL25 billion in 2029.
我們想傳達的訊息是:不論這些總體經濟波動如何,我們都會努力以可持續的方式成長。當然會有循環、信貸循環,但我們對'26的指引有信心,也對2029年達到250億巴西雷亞爾的長期目標有信心。
Operator
Operator
Thiago Paura, BTG.
Thiago Paura,BTG。
Thiago Paura - Analyst
Thiago Paura - Analyst
I believe I have accidentally left in the previous call. But just a follow-up on the volumes, maybe a double-click here. on the dynamics that you are seeing. Given the change that you have been kind of releasing recently in the TPV disclosure, just to have -- get a sense from you regarding the mix behind incremental volumes growth.
我想我在上一通電話會議中不小心先離開了。但就交易量再追問一下,可能想更深入了解你們看到的動態。鑑於你們最近在TPV揭露上做了一些調整,我想從你們這邊了解增量交易量成長背後的組合。
So basically more recently and what to expect going forward regarding the main drivers for TPV growth? Is it being more driven by nano merchants, more SMBs, larger accounts, just to get a sense on this kind of client profile on the payment side?
所以,基本上近期以及未來,TPV成長的主要驅動因素會是什麼?是更多由nano商戶、小型與中型企業(SMB)、較大型客戶所帶動嗎?我想了解支付端這類客戶輪廓的變化。
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
Thank you for your question. Just answering straightforward, the focus of the company is still SMBs. So we are talking about small and medium enterprise. The nano merchant, it is part of our strategy on the tap on phone on the organic inflow that we have here in terms of customers. And we put our efforts, our capabilities, our marketing investment for SMBs, which is still the growth frontier of the company. So nothing different than that. We're going to keep pushing small and medium enterprises.
謝謝你的提問。直接回答:公司的重點仍然是SMB。也就是小型與中型企業。nano商戶是我們tap on phone策略的一部分,也是我們在客戶自然流入方面的一環。而我們會把努力、能力與行銷投資放在SMB上,這仍然是公司的成長前沿。所以沒有不同。我們會持續推動小型與中型企業。
Richardo Da Silva - Principal Executive Officer
Richardo Da Silva - Principal Executive Officer
Thiago, if I can add, I would just -- I would like to highlight, I think that we have a unique combination in terms of product and service, Pro for MSMB. So we have a very seamless digital experience. we have a full digital bank here with all set of products and service. And it gives us -- it generates multiple revenue streams that we will deliver to our customers.
Thiago,如果我可以補充一下,我想強調我們在面向MSMB的產品與服務(Pro)方面,具備獨特的組合。我們有非常順暢的數位體驗;我們也有完整的數位銀行,提供全套產品與服務。這讓我們——也就是為我們帶來多元的營收來源,並回饋給客戶。
And at the same time, we will continue to grow our operation. And right now, on top of that, we have been working on the credit avenue of growth. So those opportunities give us the confidence that we're going to be on track to deliver our results.
同時,我們也會持續擴大營運規模。此外,目前我們也在推進信貸這條成長路徑。這些機會讓我們有信心能按計畫交付成果。
Thiago Paura - Analyst
Thiago Paura - Analyst
Great. And if I may, just a follow-up on the EPS guidance because several questions are being -- are coming from clients. Just to double check that. So given the share count by the end of the year will be lower than mechanically, even if net income grows like zero or it remains flat, that would imply something like this high single-digit EPS growth that is embedded in the guidance. That's the idea behind just to double check that.
很好。如果可以的話,我想就 EPS 指引再追問一下,因為有好幾個問題一直——也有客戶在問。只是想再確認一下。所以,鑑於年底的股數會比機械式推算來得更低,即使淨利成長為零或維持持平,這也意味著指引中隱含了類似高個位數的 EPS 成長。這就是背後的想法,我只是想再確認一下。
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
Mathematically speaking, yes, you are right, but you can assume that the net income will still grow. We will still be growing.
從數學上來說,是的,你說得對,但你可以假設淨利仍然會成長。我們仍然會成長。
Operator
Operator
Neha Agarwala, HSBC.
Neha Agarwala,匯豐。
Neha Agarwala - Analyst
Neha Agarwala - Analyst
Just a clarification on the volume growth that you mentioned. So we saw good growth in fourth quarter, but how should we think about the sustainability of this growth? Some of your competitors might also be putting in more effort to retain clients. So how do you see the competition in 2026? And what efforts would be required for you to ensure that you retain the customers, especially given the fact that you have a lot of operational efficiency focus and you want to control the costs. So if you could talk about that.
我想針對你提到的交易量成長做個釐清。我們看到第四季成長不錯,但我們應該如何看待這個成長的可持續性?你的一些競爭對手可能也在投入更多努力來留住客戶。那你如何看待 2026 年的競爭態勢?以及你需要做哪些努力來確保留住客戶,尤其考量到你們非常重視營運效率並希望控制成本。如果你能談談這點就太好了。
And second one is just on the effective tax rate. We had a bit of volatility in fourth quarter, and you explained about the change in tax rate. If you could elaborate a bit on that and tell us how -- what kind of level should we expect going forward in '26/'27, roughly any range that would be very helpful.
第二個問題是關於有效稅率。第四季我們看到一些波動,你也解釋了稅率變動的原因。如果你能再多說明一下,並告訴我們未來在 '26/'27 大致應該預期什麼水準——任何區間都會很有幫助。
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you for your question, Neha. Here, in terms of TPV growth, if I understood right, the first part of your question, we're not going to guide volumes throughout the year. But again, I will reinforce the same trend that we saw in the second half of last year, we see on the first quarter of this year here.
謝謝你的問題,Neha。在 TPV 成長方面,如果我理解你問題的第一部分,我們不會對全年交易量提供指引。但我會再次強調,我們在去年下半年看到的同樣趨勢,在今年第一季也看得到。
So we are very confident on our customer acquisition strategy. And also, we are quite confident on the way that we are engaging our customers to control churn over time. So again, of course, the competitiveness arena is quite hot, as you guys know, but we have a very powerful set of products here to keep up growing or recovering TPV over -- throughout the year.
所以我們對客戶獲取策略非常有信心。同時,我們也相當有信心我們與客戶互動、隨時間控制流失率的方式。因此,當然,競爭環境確實很火熱,如各位所知,但我們有一套非常強大的產品組合,能在全年持續成長或恢復 TPV。
Richardo Da Silva - Principal Executive Officer
Richardo Da Silva - Principal Executive Officer
And Neha, just to complement, the competition is the same that we've been seeing in the last years. When you have an interest rate of the country with 15% per year, everyone needs to be rational. We don't see anyone trying to buy market share. Everyone is trying to look for profitability.
Neha,我補充一下,競爭情況和我們過去幾年看到的是一樣的。當一個國家的利率是每年 15% 時,每個人都必須理性。我們沒有看到有人試圖用買市場份額的方式競爭。大家都在追求獲利能力。
And I know you mentioned about the cost control that we are doing, but all the cost control we are looking for and that we are reaching at this time does not affect the customer service, our go-to-market and things like that. We are looking for efficiency.
我知道你提到我們正在做成本控制,但我們目前追求並已達成的所有成本控制,都不會影響客戶服務、我們的市場拓展(go-to-market)等事項。我們追求的是效率。
We are using artificial intelligence in many fronts in such a way that we can have lower cost without any problem or any impact in service for our clients or the way that they go to the market. Just to be clear here, we are going to keep accelerating the way we've been doing in the past years and have more efficient in this go-to-market and all the back office and logistics and so on.
我們在許多面向使用人工智慧,讓我們能在不造成任何問題、也不影響客戶服務或客戶進入市場方式的情況下,降低成本。我想在此說清楚,我們會持續加速過去幾年的做法,讓 go-to-market、後台、物流等各方面都更有效率。
Regarding the tax rate, Gustavo can.
關於稅率,Gustavo 可以回答。
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Gustavo Sechin - Chief Financial Officer
Neha, good to see you. Talking about the tax, I think that the main message is structurally tax rate should increase over time, especially because the increase of the banking revenue pool. But for this year, you should -- we should tax around mid-teens for the full year.
Neha,很高興見到你。談到稅務,我認為主要訊息是:從結構上看,稅率應該會隨時間上升,特別是因為銀行業收入池的增加。但就今年而言,全年稅率大概會落在十幾%的中段。
Richardo Da Silva - Principal Executive Officer
Richardo Da Silva - Principal Executive Officer
Neha, just to complement, I just want to reinforce here that we have a very powerful ecosystem. We -- I know you already know, but it's worth to mention that we have this digital bank account that we've been working on since 2019 or 2018 that makes the difference when you go to the market.
Neha,我再補充一下,我想再次強調我們有一個非常強大的生態系。我知道你已經了解,但仍值得一提:我們自 2019 年或 2018 年起就一直在打造的數位銀行帳戶,在我們進入市場時帶來了差異化。
We see some other players that believe in other synergies and now they are talking about banking, but they are too much behind us, I would say. So we have this powerful combination of the digital account that serves SMBs and all the powerful that we have in the payments that was the origin of the company.
我們看到一些其他玩家相信不同的協同效應,現在才開始談銀行業務,但我會說他們落後我們太多了。因此,我們擁有這個服務中小企業(SMB)的數位帳戶,再加上我們在支付領域的強大能力——那也是公司起家的根本。
But just to be clear here, we are using all the advantage that we have in this go-to-market. And it's worth to mention in Q4, we grew 10% quarter over quarter, while the market grew 5%. So we could double of the market in Q4 compared to Q3.
但我想在此說清楚,我們正在充分運用我們在 go-to-market 上的所有優勢。也值得一提的是,第四季我們季增 10%,而市場只成長 5%。所以相較於第三季,第四季我們的成長是市場的兩倍。
Neha Agarwala - Analyst
Neha Agarwala - Analyst
That's very helpful. Probably I missed and mentioned previously, what is the SELIC assumption you have for 2026 as well as for the long-term guidance that you posted?
這很有幫助。我可能漏聽了或你之前提過:你們對 2026 年的 SELIC 假設,以及你們發布的長期指引中的 SELIC 假設是什麼?
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
Carlos Mauad - Chief Executive Officer
For this year, we are including 12.5% for the year-end, which will give us an average SELIC quite similar for -- with the 2025. For the long-term guidance, we assume some reduction. But in this period, they will be above 10% in 2027 and also in 2008.
就今年而言,我們納入的假設是年底 12.5%,這會使我們的平均 SELIC 與 2025 年相當接近。至於長期指引,我們假設會有一些下調。但在這段期間,2027 年以及 2008 年都會高於 10%。
Neha Agarwala - Analyst
Neha Agarwala - Analyst
Thank you so much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a nice evening.
今天的簡報到此結束。您現在可以斷線,祝您晚安。