PacWest Bancorp (PACW) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the PacWest Bancorp's Third Quarter Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Bill Black. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 PacWest Bancorp 第三季度財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。在這個時候，我想把會議轉交給 Bill Black。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to PacWest's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

謝謝你。早上好，歡迎來到 PacWest 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。

With me today are Matt Wagner, CEO; Paul Taylor, our President; Bart Olson, CFO; and Mark Yung, our COO; and the leader of our Venture Banking business.

今天和我在一起的是首席執行官馬特·瓦格納 (Matt Wagner)；我們的總裁 Paul Taylor；巴特奧爾森，首席財務官；以及我們的首席運營官 Mark Yung；以及我們風險投資銀行業務的領導者。

Before I hand the call over to Matt, please note that we may make forward-looking statements during today's call that are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions. For a more complete discussion of the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements, see our company's SEC filings, including the 8-K filed yesterday afternoon, which is also available on the company's website.

在我將電話轉給馬特之前，請注意，我們可能會在今天的電話會議上做出受風險、不確定性和假設影響的前瞻性陳述。有關可能導致實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的風險和不確定性的更完整討論，請參閱我們公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括昨天下午提交的 8-K 文件，該文件也可在公司網站上找到。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Matt Wagner.

現在我想把電話轉給我們的首席執行官馬特瓦格納。

Thank you, Bill. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. I want to start off by making a few comments about the overall business and operating environment.

謝謝你，比爾。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。我想首先對整體業務和運營環境發表一些評論。

Overall business activity remains strong, but we are proceeding cautiously as we are thinking about and planning for weaker economic environments ahead. We continue to focus our time and attention on our customers, making sure we are there to serve them throughout the cycle. We slowed some of our lending businesses given the economic environment and our desire to grow capital more rapidly while optimizing our balance sheet. Given the current economic backdrop, we believe this is a prudent thing to do.

整體商業活動依然強勁，但我們在考慮和規劃未來疲軟的經濟環境時謹慎行事。我們繼續將時間和注意力集中在我們的客戶身上，確保我們在整個週期內為他們提供服務。鑑於經濟環境以及我們希望在優化資產負債表的同時更快地增加資本，我們放慢了一些貸款業務。鑑於當前的經濟背景，我們認為這是明智之舉。

Credit remains strong, and currently, we do not see any negative credit trends, and we continue to monitor the loan portfolio closely as part of our conservative approach to credit.

信貸依然強勁，目前，我們沒有看到任何負面信貸趨勢，作為我們保守的信貸方式的一部分，我們將繼續密切監控貸款組合。

Finally, but most importantly, building capital, as we did in the third quarter remains our primary focus, and this will continue to be a key component of decisions we make each day.

最後，但也是最重要的是，正如我們在第三季度所做的那樣，建立資本仍然是我們的主要重點，這將繼續成為我們每天做出的決策的關鍵組成部分。

With that, let me turn it over to Bill to cover the key highlights of the quarter.

有了這個，讓我把它交給比爾來介紹本季度的主要亮點。

Thanks, Matt. The third quarter was marked by a couple of key events. First and foremost, all of our regulatory capital ratios increased during the quarter, including CET1, which increased from 8.24% to 8.55% as we march towards our CET1 target of 10% by the end of 2023. Second, our total deposits grew $228 million. And importantly, after 2 quarters of decreases, our venture banking deposits not only stabilized but grew $129 million to $12.2 billion.

謝謝，馬特。第三季度發生了一些關鍵事件。首先，我們所有的監管資本比率在本季度都有所增加，包括 CET1，隨著我們在 2023 年底實現 10% 的 CET1 目標，該比率從 8.24% 增加到 8.55%。其次，我們的總存款增加了 2.28 億美元.重要的是，在經歷了兩個季度的下降之後，我們的風險投資銀行存款不僅穩定下來，而且還增長了 1.29 億美元，達到 122 億美元。

Third, credit quality remained strong, with nonperforming assets only at 34 basis points and net charge-offs for the quarter of 3 basis points. We continue to monitor the loan portfolio closely and have not seen any significant signs of credit deterioration at this point.

第三，信貸質量依然強勁，不良資產僅為 34 個基點，本季度淨註銷為 3 個基點。我們繼續密切監控貸款組合，目前尚未發現任何明顯的信用惡化跡象。

Fourth, our net loan growth remains strong and broad-based across the businesses, but lower than the prior 2 quarters as planned and as previously communicated.

第四，我們的淨貸款增長仍然強勁且在各個業務中都有廣泛的基礎，但低於前兩個季度的計劃和先前的溝通。

Lastly, our net interest income on a tax equivalent basis was $338.6 million, up 3.3% from last quarter.

最後，我們按稅收等值計算的淨利息收入為 3.386 億美元，比上一季度增長 3.3%。

I'd like to now hand things over to Bart, our CFO, for some specific commentary on the financial results before we go into Q&A.

我現在想把事情交給我們的首席財務官巴特，以便在我們進行問答之前對財務結果進行一些具體評論。

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. I'm going to focus my comments on Page 3, a new slide we added to our earnings presentation, which provides a condensed view of our financial results.

謝謝，比爾，大家早上好。我將把我的評論集中在第 3 頁，這是我們添加到收益演示中的新幻燈片，它提供了我們財務結果的濃縮視圖。

As you can see here, interest income continued to grow, increasing 17% to $410 million during the quarter and up 41% from a year ago, driven by higher average balances and higher rates. Interest expense also grew during the quarter with a cost of deposits increasing to 70 basis points, driven by higher rates and higher average balances on wholesale deposits. As a result, this limited our NIM expansion during the quarter.

正如您在這裡看到的那樣，在平均餘額增加和利率上升的推動下，利息收入繼續增長，本季度增長 17% 至 4.1 億美元，比去年同期增長 41%。本季度的利息支出也有所增長，存款成本上升至 70 個基點，這是由於更高的利率和更高的批發存款平均餘額。因此，這限制了我們在本季度的 NIM 擴張。

Turning to the provisions. The provisions decreased by $7 million, primarily due to slower loan growth, a decrease in COVID-related qualitative reserves, offset by less favorable economic forecast. Our CECL ratio ended the quarter at 1.03%, still above our CECL adoption level of 0.97%.

談到規定。準備金減少了 700 萬美元，這主要是由於貸款增長放緩、與 COVID 相關的定性儲備減少，但被不太有利的經濟預測所抵消。我們的 CECL 比率在本季度結束時為 1.03%，仍高於我們 0.97% 的 CECL 採用水平。

Moving down to noninterest income. This was up $4.3 million due to the successful outcome of a litigation matter, which net of legal fees in 2022, added $5.5 million to noninterest income during the quarter. Meanwhile, noninterest expense was up during the quarter by $12 million. This increase was attributable to a $3.9 million increase in professional services, primarily related to the credit linked note transaction, a $3.4 million increase in compensation related to an additional 68 FTEs, primarily related to Civic and our digital and innovation strategy, along with 1 more business day.

向下移動到非利息收入。這增加了 430 萬美元，這是由於訴訟事項的成功結果，扣除 2022 年的法律費用後，本季度的非利息收入增加了 550 萬美元。與此同時，本季度非利息支出增加了 1200 萬美元。這一增長歸因於專業服務增加 390 萬美元，主要與信用掛鉤票據交易相關，與另外 68 個 FTE 相關的薪酬增加 340 萬美元，主要與 Civic 和我們的數字和創新戰略相關，以及另外 1 個工作日。

Other contributors to the increase were a $1.5 million increase in FDIC insurance assessments as a result of higher wholesale deposits in 2Q and 3Q, and a $2.6 million accrual for a legal settlement. Excluding the $7 million in nonrecurring items related to the credit-linked notes and legal accrual, noninterest expense would have been $188.6 million.

增加的其他貢獻者是 FDIC 保險評估增加 150 萬美元，這是由於第二季度和第三季度的批發存款增加，以及 260 萬美元的法律和解應計費用。排除與信用掛鉤票據和法定應計費用相關的 700 萬美元非經常性項目，非利息費用為 1.886 億美元。

From a balance sheet perspective, the only comment I would make is that we sold approximately $440 million in bonds at a net gain of $86,000, as we continue to actively manage the investment portfolio. Our AOCI unrealized loss for the quarter went from a loss of $645 million at the end of the second quarter to a loss of $848 million at the end of the third quarter, given the movement in market interest rates.

從資產負債表的角度來看，我唯一要說的是，隨著我們繼續積極管理投資組合，我們以 86,000 美元的淨收益出售了大約 4.4 億美元的債券。考慮到市場利率的變動，我們本季度的 AOCI 未實現虧損從第二季度末的 6.45 億美元虧損變為第三季度末的 8.48 億美元虧損。

Lastly, if you're looking for our outlook on the fourth quarter, I would point you to Slide 11 in the presentation materials.

最後，如果您正在尋找我們對第四季度的展望，我建議您參閱演示材料中的幻燈片 11。

This concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, could you please open the line for questions.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。接線員，請您打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) And we do have a question from Jared.

（操作員說明）我們確實有 Jared 提出的問題。

I guess just maybe a little thought on how we should be thinking about beta from here. You, I think, accelerated into the quarter. Should we be thinking that there's more room to go here as we move through the cycle? Or what's your thoughts on, I guess, beta through the cycle to start off with?

我想也許只是想一想我們應該如何從這裡考慮測試版。我認為，您加速進入了本季度。我們是否應該考慮在我們通過週期時有更多的空間去這裡？或者你有什麼想法，我猜，通過週期開始測試？

Yes, Jared. The current -- the current cycle rising interest rate environment, we're at 41 basis points for interest-bearing and 26% for total deposits. Looking ahead or updated forecast, deposit betas over the next 12 months is for that to increase to 50% for interest-bearing deposits and 31% for total deposits.

是的，賈里德。當前 - 當前週期上升的利率環境，我們的生息利率為 41 個基點，總存款利率為 26%。展望未來或更新預測，未來 12 個月的存款貝塔值是生息存款增加到 50%，總存款增加到 31%。

Okay. All right. And then as we -- you mentioned a slowing outlook on loan growth. How should we be thinking about the funding of that? Is that going to see a continued increase in loan-to-deposit ratio? Should we assume that deposit growth is lagging that? Or should we be thinking that the deposits at that beta should keep pace?

好的。好的。然後正如我們 - 你提到貸款增長前景放緩。我們應該如何考慮為此提供資金？這會導致貸存比繼續上升嗎？我們是否應該假設存款增長落後於此？還是我們應該認為那個測試版的存款應該跟上？

Well, again, the guidance that we have on deposits is flat and up depending on venture banking predominantly. So we'll see where that goes from a deposit perspective. I think those slower loan growth is obviously part of that, with loans will probably do some funding with wholesale. Obviously, if the deposits don't grow at the same pace as loans.

嗯，再次，我們對存款的指導是持平和上升的，主要取決於風險銀行業務。因此，我們將從存款的角度來看它的去向。我認為貸款增長放緩顯然是其中的一部分，貸款可能會為批發提供一些資金。顯然，如果存款的增長速度與貸款的增長速度不同。

Okay. And I guess maybe just finally for me, maybe a bigger picture question for Mark on the venture side. Good to see the deposit growth there. But maybe I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on sort of sentiment in terms of the sponsors and pace of potential investment as we end the year and go into '23.

好的。我想對我來說也許只是最後一個問題，對風險投資方面的馬克來說可能是一個更大的問題。很高興看到那裡的存款增長。但也許我有興趣聽聽你對贊助商和潛在投資步伐的看法，因為我們將在今年年底進入 23 年。

Jared, yes, Mark. Yes, I would say our lookout had been that the transaction can would start picking back up here end of Q3 and getting a little bit more robust into Q4. The numbers are out for the broader U.S. venture market. I mean transaction levels did come down meaningfully in Q3. Part of it aided by the summer seasonal slump. We are expecting there's still $290 billion of dry powder. I know it's -- the number has been restated. $160 billion of it is estimated to be used for new investments out of that dry powder.

賈里德，是的，馬克。是的，我想說我們的觀察是，交易量將在第三季度末開始回升，並在第四季度變得更加強勁。這些數字適用於更廣泛的美國風險市場。我的意思是交易水平在第三季度確實顯著下降。部分原因是夏季季節性低迷。我們預計仍有 2900 億美元的干火藥。我知道這是——這個數字已經被重述了。據估計，其中的 1600 億美元將用於這些幹火藥的新投資。

So we do think the VCs will be under some pressure here to put that money to work before year-end. So we continue to believe that transaction activities should come up into Q4. But again, it's not going to be 2021 or 2020 pandemic year transaction level, it's going to be more like pre-pandemic transaction levels, but aided and assisted by the tremendous amount of dry powder in the ecosystem. So we continue to be cautiously optimistic here into Q4. And we'll see where we end up here.

因此，我們確實認為風險投資公司將面臨一些壓力，要求他們在年底前投入這筆資金。因此，我們仍然認為交易活動應該會出現在第四季度。但同樣，這不會是 2021 年或 2020 年大流行年的交易水平，它更像是大流行前的交易水平，但會得到生態系統中大量乾粉的幫助和協助。因此，我們對第四季度繼續持謹慎樂觀態度。我們會看到我們在這裡結束的地方。

And our next question comes from Christopher Marinac.

我們的下一個問題來自 Christopher Marinac。

I wanted to ask about the percentage of core funding of the balance sheet. Do you see that changing further as we go into next year? And just kind of curious on sort of, I guess, on the same line, kind of how DDAs may play out as well.

我想問一下資產負債表中核心資金的百分比。隨著我們進入明年，您認為這種情況會進一步改變嗎？只是有點好奇，我想，在同一條線上，DDA 可能會如何發揮作用。

Yes. I mean I think the core funding is again tied to venture with that. And so I think in the guidance we have is we think it's flatten up depending on venture. So I think from a core perspective, that's going to be probably the key driver. I think we expect Community Bank to continue to grow, saw some decrease in the third quarter, but expect that to grow as it typically does.

是的。我的意思是我認為核心資金再次與風險相關。因此，我認為在我們的指導中，我們認為它會根據風險而趨於平緩。所以我認為從核心角度來看，這可能是關鍵驅動因素。我認為我們預計社區銀行將繼續增長，第三季度有所下降，但預計會像往常一樣增長。

And is the wealth management kind of funds that are off balance sheet, is the beta on that materially different from what we see at the bank overall?

資產負債表外的財富管理類基金是否與我們在銀行整體看到的有實質性不同？

Well, it's off balance sheet, so that's not in our numbers, right? So it has no barrier to what those betas would be.

好吧，它不在資產負債表內，所以這不在我們的數字中，對嗎？所以它對那些貝塔是什麼沒有障礙。

We've actually had initiatives, Chris, this is Matt, to bring a lot of that funding back on balance sheet, project Boomerang, I think we call it. And it's -- we're having some good success with it. But of course, we're paying up for that money.

我們實際上已經採取了舉措，克里斯，這是馬特，將大量資金帶回資產負債表，項目 Boomerang，我想我們稱之為。而且它——我們在這方面取得了一些成功。但當然，我們正在為這筆錢付出代價。

Great. Yes. That's what I just want to establish. And then just a final question for me is, on the expense guide that you gave us for the fourth quarter, how applicable is that for the first part of 2023? Is that a good number to kind of read through to the early part of next year? I know budgeting is still going on.

偉大的。是的。這就是我想要建立的。最後一個問題是，關於你給我們的第四季度費用指南，它對 2023 年上半年的適用性如何？這是一個很好的數字，可以通讀到明年年初嗎？我知道預算仍在進行中。

Yes. I mean the budgeting process, you're right, is going on. We're in the midst of that right now. It's probably a good jumping off point, but we are taking a look at our expenses closely as we go through the budget process. And so that will be a big focus for us as we go through that. But I think from a jumping off point, that's probably a good guide.

是的。我的意思是預算編制過程正在進行中，你是對的。我們現在正處於其中。這可能是一個很好的起點，但在我們進行預算過程時，我們正在密切關注我們的開支。因此，在我們完成這項工作時，這將成為我們關注的重點。但我認為從一個起點來看，這可能是一個很好的指南。

Chris, some of the businesses that we're in, you can logically look at them, and I'm not going to name names necessarily. But it's activity, you're going to slow down that activity pretty dramatically, like a lot of fixed rate lending and those kinds of things. And if you slow down the activity, you need less people. Yes, and so you'll see some initiatives coming from us. We don't have, I guess, I wouldn't call it necessarily a formal hiring freeze now, but every new hire, including replacements are heavily scrutinized before we go forward with that.

克里斯，我們所從事的一些業務，你可以從邏輯上看它們，我不會一定要說出名字。但它是一種活動，你將大大減緩這種活動，比如大量的固定利率貸款和諸如此類的事情。如果你放慢活動，你需要更少的人。是的，所以你會看到一些來自我們的倡議。我想，我們現在還沒有，我不會稱之為正式的招聘凍結，但在我們繼續之前，包括替補在內的每一位新員工都會受到嚴格審查。

And our next question is coming from Matthew Clark.

我們的下一個問題來自 Matthew Clark。

I wanted to start on deposit costs. Do you happen to have the spot rate on the -- spot rate at the end of September on interest-bearing deposits to give us some visibility going into next quarter?

我想從存款成本開始。您是否碰巧有 9 月底計息存款的即期利率，以便我們了解下一季度的情況？

Yes, the spot rate was 85%.

是的，即期匯率是 85%。

Okay. I thought it was [115%] this past quarter, but okay, I have to circle back on it.

好的。我以為上個季度是 [115%]，但是好吧，我必須重新考慮一下。

The 85% is total. Matt, the 85% is total.

85% 是總的。馬特，85% 是總的。

Total. Thank you. Okay. Got it. And then in terms of borrowings, they came down this quarter, should we assume that they continue to come down? And as it relates to the wholesale deposits you're willing to take on what rates are you seeing relative to the duration you're willing to do?

全部的。謝謝你。好的。知道了。然後就借款而言，本季度它們有所下降，我們是否應該假設它們會繼續下降？並且由於它與您願意承擔的批發存款有關，相對於您願意承擔的期限，您看到的利率是多少？

Yes. On the borrowings, I mean, that's going to fluctuate a little bit again just with month demand and growth and how we decide to fund that, whether we do with borrowings or whether we do wholesale. Going through the third quarter, wholesale was cheaper than overnight, but that gap has narrowed. And so I think when you look forward, I think we'd probably have a little bit of wholesale in there and then use the overnight as well.

是的。關於借款，我的意思是，隨著月度需求和增長以及我們決定如何為其提供資金，無論我們是通過借款還是批發，這都會再次出現一點波動。整個第三季度，批發價比隔夜便宜，但差距已經縮小。所以我認為當你期待時，我認為我們可能會在那裡進行一些批發，然後也會在一夜之間使用。

So I think it will be a mix and it really just depends on what the rates are. We did during the third quarter and throughout the wholesale process that we did do. It's laddered. And so we'll continue to do that and see where it goes. But it's probably in the 3.5% to 4% range on the wholesale, depending on the duration.

所以我認為這將是一個混合體，它實際上只取決於利率是多少。我們在第三季度和整個批發過程中都做到了。它是梯形的。因此，我們將繼續這樣做，看看它會走向何方。但批發可能在 3.5% 到 4% 的範圍內，具體取決於持續時間。

Got it. And then just on the guide for slower loan growth in the fourth quarter. Are we talking low to mid-single digits? And how should we think about overall earning assets would be flat from here or flat to down?

知道了。然後就在第四季度貸款增長放緩的指導下。我們是在談論低到中個位數嗎？我們應該如何考慮整體收益資產從這裡持平或持平到下降？

Well, if you -- we're trying to hold the loan side of the balance sheet more towards flat. There will be some growth in the fourth quarter. And looking out into 2023, again, I think you'll see little growth, but there will be some growth.

好吧，如果你——我們正試圖讓資產負債表的貸款方面更加趨於平穩。第四季度會有一些增長。展望 2023 年，我認為你會看到很少的增長，但會有一些增長。

Yes. And Matt, I would just add to that, that we've talked about the last couple of quarters of optimizing the earning asset mix and optimizing the overall balance sheet. And I think the comment that [Paul made] is more of the net balance of that. There's obviously going to be ebbs and flows of different things that will grow and different things that may come in and out. But the net result of that should be a flattish loan portfolio and a flattish balance sheet '23.

是的。馬特，我只想補充一點，我們已經討論了過去幾個季度優化盈利資產組合和優化整體資產負債表的問題。我認為 [Paul 所做的] 評論更多的是它的淨平衡。很明顯，不同的事物會潮起潮落，它們會成長，不同的事物可能會進進出出。但這樣做的最終結果應該是持平的貸款組合和持平的資產負債表 '23。

Okay. And then just on your guide around modestly higher NII from here. Is that assuming you're going to get some additional lift in the NIM? Or do you feel like the NIM is kind of near a peak?

好的。然後就在您的指南中，從這裡開始略微提高 NII。這是假設您將在 NIM 中獲得一些額外的提升嗎？還是您覺得 NIM 有點接近頂峰？

No, I think we expect NIM to continue to expand. I mean, it was limited expansion this quarter because of the deposit cost. But I think we see the loan yields continuing to rise deposit costs will rise, but we think that we'll see expansion in the NIM looking ahead. Yes.

不，我認為我們希望 NIM 繼續擴大。我的意思是，由於存款成本，本季度的擴張有限。但我認為我們看到貸款收益率繼續上升，存款成本將會上升，但我們認為未來我們會看到 NIM 擴張。是的。

I think it's a mixture of basically the higher rates and the remixing of the earning assets on a flat balance sheet.

我認為這基本上是更高利率和資產負債表上收益資產重新組合的混合體。

Our next question comes from Gary Tenner.

我們的下一個問題來自 Gary Tenner。

Just wanted to ask, and I think you may have addressed this in part by talking about a flattish loan portfolio in 2023. But as it relates to your 10% CET1 goal obviously, added 30 bps this quarter, 20 of that was the CLN transaction. Can you talk about any additional transactions or strategies you're thinking about in terms of growing that beyond just internal capital generation as we look out over the next several quarters?

只是想問一下，我認為您可能已經通過談論 2023 年持平的貸款組合來部分解決這個問題。但這顯然與您的 10% CET1 目標有關，本季度增加了 30 個基點，其中 20 個是 CLN 交易.在我們展望未來幾個季度時，您能否談談您正在考慮的任何其他交易或戰略，以實現超越內部資本生成的增長？

Yes. I think we're looking at everything to make sure that we meet or exceed the 10% CET1 by the end of '23. So I think you'll see the company go through a process. We'll be announcing things and looking at everything we can to improve capital.

是的。我認為我們正在研究一切，以確保我們在 23 年底達到或超過 10% 的 CET1。所以我認為你會看到公司經歷一個過程。我們將宣布事情並儘我們所能來改善資本。

Gary, everything is kind of up for grabs. This is Matt. And things like -- obviously, we're going to have amortization of our multifamily loans. And of course, you're also going to have some activity there. We're loans, properties will be sold as in the normal course of business, maybe not as quick a velocity as you would have in a rising rate environment because they're not doing refis you're going to have the same with our SFR portfolio. You're going to have amortization and you're going to have people. You're not going to have the refi activity, but you're going to have people move, sell their homes and that sort of thing.

加里，一切都有待商榷。這是馬特。諸如此類——顯然，我們將對多戶家庭貸款進行攤銷。當然，您也將在那裡進行一些活動。我們是貸款，財產將像正常業務過程一樣出售，可能不會像在利率上升環境中那樣快，因為他們不進行再融資，您將與我們的 SFR 一樣文件夾。你會有攤銷，你會有人。你不會有 refi 活動，但你會讓人們搬家，賣掉他們的房子等等。

And just in the nature of PacWest and you'll see this quarter, we had payoffs and paydowns of approximately $2 -- $2.5 billion, I think, wasn't it, Mark, which is down somewhat from our more average, which was like $2.75 billion. On a quarterly basis, it's paid up. And these are things like construction projects, a lot of which we do -- the majority is multifamily coming to completion certificate of occupancies issued and long-term lenders stepping in and taking this out. And we still see that kind of activity, and we don't expect that to slow down.

就 PacWest 的性質而言，你會看到本季度，我們的收益和收益約為 2 美元——我認為是 25 億美元，不是嗎，馬克，這比我們的平均水平有所下降，就像27.5 億美元。按季度支付。這些都是建築項目之類的事情，我們所做的很多事情——大多數是多戶家庭即將完成並頒發入住證明，長期貸款人介入並將其撤出。我們仍然看到這種活動，我們預計這種情況不會放緩。

So when you think about the portfolio in general, you've got about between $8 billion and $10 billion in natural runoff on an annual basis, which is 30% of our portfolio, more than 30%, a third. And so we still have to be out there making loans and making them to our customers, our customers that provide us core deposits, and we'll continue to do that. It's not going to be like we're going to be sitting around flat footed in order to keep the balance sheet at check. We still have a lot of work to do.

因此，當您總體考慮投資組合時，每年的自然徑流約為 80 億至 100 億美元，占我們投資組合的 30%，超過 30%，三分之一。因此，我們仍然必須在那裡發放貸款並向我們的客戶提供貸款，我們的客戶為我們提供核心存款，我們將繼續這樣做。這不會像我們為了控制資產負債表而坐以待斃。我們還有很多工作要做。

And then just to make sure that I'm clear on as you're talking about optimizing the balance sheet. As I think on the asset side, if you're kind of not growing loans or the balance sheet overall? Is it more of optimizing the mix within the loan portfolio? Or as you look at the broad categories of loan securities and cash shifting that mix more from where it is right now?

然後只是為了確保在您談論優化資產負債表時我很清楚。正如我在資產方面的想法，如果你沒有增加貸款或整體資產負債表？它更多的是優化貸款組合中的組合嗎？或者，當你看到貸款證券和現金轉移的廣泛類別從現在的位置混合得更多時？

Well, that we're not selling our securities portfolio off unless we can do it at a pretty neutral level. So yes, as -- what is our monthly maturities, Mark? $40 million?

好吧，除非我們可以在相當中性的水平上進行，否則我們不會出售我們的證券投資組合。所以是的，馬克，我們每月的到期日是多少？ 4000萬美元？

Yes. So it's gone down. It was about that during the quarter, but forward-looking is around $30 million.

是的。所以它下降了。本季度大約是這個數字，但前瞻性約為 3000 萬美元。

$30 million a month and just runoff of the securities portfolio. But yes, I mean it's optimizing what we want to do. I mean, with our loan portfolio. Again, we know rates are going to continue to go up at least through probably the first quarter of next year, so why would you possibly be making a fixed rate loan now? I mean we still have some flow and we still have some commitments in Q3 that we had to honor, particularly for our good customers and our also large depositors. But that pretty much has flushed its way through the system. So you won't see much more of that.

每月 3000 萬美元，只是證券投資組合的流失。但是，是的，我的意思是它正在優化我們想做的事情。我的意思是，我們的貸款組合。同樣，我們知道利率將至少在明年第一季度繼續上漲，那麼您為什麼現在可能要提供固定利率貸款呢？我的意思是我們仍然有一些流量，我們在第三季度仍然有一些我們必須兌現的承諾，特別是對我們的好客戶和我們的大存款人。但這幾乎已經通過系統沖刷了它的方式。所以你不會看到更多。

But -- so I'm pretty optimistic. I'm also happy to see the deposit flows improving, particularly in venture. And I think that it's not going to be like '20 to '21 again as Mark said, but I think it's going to stabilize and the community-based deposits, which are our other big chunk in deposits are -- continue to grow, although they've never been -- it's never been an exciting growth, it's low single-digit kind of growth.

但是 - 所以我非常樂觀。我也很高興看到存款流量有所改善，尤其是在風險投資方面。而且我認為它不會像馬克所說的那樣再次像'20到'21那樣，但我認為它會穩定下來並且基於社區的存款，這是我們存款中的另一大塊 - 繼續增長，儘管他們從來沒有——這從來都不是令人興奮的增長，而是低個位數的增長。

Yes. The 1 thing I would add to that is that when I think you look at it, optimizing the balance sheet is not necessarily optimizing a single part of it. It's optimizing the whole, right? So we're really trying to manage the balance sheet for capital and liquidity and overall long-term views of it. So the ebbs and flows of 1 part of the balance sheet are less important to me than they are the whole. And I think when we're talking about optimizing it, it's not necessarily loans will be that or this will be that. It's really trying to maximize the overall balance sheet gearing.

是的。我要補充的一件事是，當我認為你看它時，優化資產負債表並不一定是優化它的一個部分。它正在優化整體，對吧？因此，我們真的在努力管理資產負債表的資本和流動性以及對它的整體長期看法。因此，對我來說，資產負債表某一部分的潮起潮落不如整體重要。而且我認為當我們談論優化它時，不一定是貸款就是那個或這個就是那個。它真的試圖最大化整體資產負債表的槓桿作用。

And we have to keep in mind that the balance sheet runs off about $2.5 billion a quarter. So we're going in is looking at all of our types of loans and going with the most profitable, best loans that we can to fill that $2.5 billion bucket.

我們必須記住，資產負債表每季度消耗約 25 億美元。因此，我們正在研究我們所有類型的貸款，並使用我們能獲得的最有利可圖、最好的貸款來填補這 25 億美元的資金。

Yes. And that's when we talk about optimizing and it also gets back into the capital side of it, and that's how we can see the clear path to the CET1 of 10% by the end of next year. I mean if you look at it, Gary, on the CET1, we're at $8.55. -- that's $1.45 that we've got it yet. That's 29 basis points a quarter. Can you achieve that? Absolutely. I mean the profitability is certainly there. It's just a matter -- we can't grow the balance sheet at $3 billion a quarter and do that.

是的。那就是我們談論優化的時候，它也回到了它的資本方面，這就是我們如何能夠看到到明年年底達到 10% CET1 的清晰路徑。我的意思是，加里，如果你看一下 CET1，我們的價格是 8.55 美元。 -- 我們已經拿到了 1.45 美元。那是每季度 29 個基點。你能做到嗎？絕對地。我的意思是盈利能力肯定存在。這只是一個問題——我們不能以每季度 30 億美元的速度增加資產負債表並這樣做。

So -- but it's not likely that you're going to see that. I mean as you guys know, I'm a very customer-centric guy. I was talking to a lot of people and headed to the West Coast today to see other customers and people are pulling back. I mean projects have made sense at 4% interest rates and aren't going to make sense at 7.5% and that sort of thing. So they're naturally -- the business is naturally slowing down. I think you'll see that throughout the country with the banks.

所以 - 但你不太可能會看到它。我的意思是你們都知道，我是一個非常以客戶為中心的人。我與很多人交談，今天前往西海岸，看到其他客戶和人們正在撤退。我的意思是項目在 4% 的利率下是有意義的，而在 7.5% 的利率下就沒有意義了。所以他們很自然地 - 業務自然會放緩。我想你會在全國各地的銀行看到這一點。

And so I think you had just -- you just keep an eye on everything. And again, you got to be there for your best customers. And our best customers are our deposit customers. Again, I emphasize this often in these kind of calls, if you take a look at our venture businesses, I think our loans came in just a little over $2 billion for the quarter, of which a huge chunk of that's capital call, we've never been a giant capital call in, just a pretty moderate one. but our deposits related to those businesses, both the tech, life sciences and capital call lending are $12.2 billion.

所以我認為你只是 - 你只是關註一切。再一次，你必須為你最好的客戶服務。我們最好的客戶是我們的存款客戶。再一次，我經常在這類電話中強調這一點，如果你看一下我們的風險業務，我認為我們本季度的貸款略高於 20 億美元，其中很大一部分是資本需求，我們'從來都不是一個巨大的資本募集，只是一個相當溫和的資本募集。但我們與這些業務相關的存款，包括科技、生命科學和資本催繳貸款，為 122 億美元。

I mean, that's just remarkable, more than 6 times. And we've got to take care of those customers, and we will be out there. Mark and his team are -- we're seeing a lot of lending requests from those groups, because they don't want to raise capital right now. Because if they probably be looking at a down route. So it's a dynamic environment.

我的意思是，這非常了不起，超過 6 次。我們必須照顧好這些客戶，我們會在那裡。馬克和他的團隊——我們看到這些團體提出了很多貸款請求，因為他們現在不想籌集資金。因為如果他們可能正在尋找下行路線。所以這是一個動態的環境。

Our next question is coming from Brandon King.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brandon King。

This is Brandon. Just curious -- yes, I want to get an update on Civic loan production. I know it was pretty strong in the quarter. And given high interest rates? Is it affecting housing demand and lower house prices. Just curious what your outlook is for that, if they can keep up this pace or if you're expecting a slowdown from there as well?

這是布蘭登。只是好奇——是的，我想了解公民貸款生產的最新情況。我知道這個季度非常強勁。並給予高利率？它是否影響住房需求並降低房價。只是好奇你對此有何看法，如果他們能跟上這個步伐，或者你是否也期待從那裡放緩？

Brandon, it's Bill. So you've seen higher rates start to translate through -- throughout the balance sheet and not include Civic higher rates is naturally slow in production. You'll see that happen in the fourth quarter, as that ripples through. You're seeing a maturation of the portfolio, so the payoffs are starting to kick up. And so I thought you saw good production, good solid credit stats. Our underwritings remain relatively consistent for the past couple of years. And I think, overall, that the net growth will obviously slow as rates go up and payoffs kick up.

布蘭登，是比爾。所以你已經看到更高的利率開始轉化——在整個資產負債表中，不包括 Civic 更高的利率自然是生產緩慢的。你會在第四季度看到這種情況發生，因為它會產生漣漪效應。您正在看到投資組合的成熟，因此回報開始增加。所以我認為你看到了良好的生產，良好的信用統計數據。我們的承銷在過去幾年保持相對穩定。而且我認為，總體而言，隨著利率上升和回報增加，淨增長將明顯放緩。

Bill, you might want to -- since you brought up Civic, you might want to touch on Florida?

比爾，你可能想——既然你提到了思域，你可能想談談佛羅里達？

Sure. So obviously, with the types of natural disasters that we've had, we went through a deep dive of the entire portfolio, both within Civic and externally. And the overall amount of the properties that were severely damaged were a little more than handful, low single-digit million dollar exposures, all properties where we have insurance policies in place. So a really nice outcome in terms of the team doing the work and having the quick diligence to jump on the phone obviously a horrible disaster, but I think our teams did a great job in the face of a really tight timeframe. So we're pleased with the underwriting and the structure there.

當然。很明顯，對於我們所經歷的各種自然災害，我們對思域內部和外部的整個投資組合進行了深入研究。受到嚴重損壞的財產的總數略多於少數，低個位數的百萬美元風險，所有財產我們都有保險政策。因此，就團隊工作和快速勤奮地接聽電話而言，一個非常好的結果顯然是一場可怕的災難，但我認為我們的團隊在非常緊迫的時間框架內做得很好。因此，我們對那裡的承銷和結構感到滿意。

And that -- I would add to that, that includes other lending that the bank does in Florida, has done, and it looks really good. And in terms of yield, I had to step out just really quickly there. We had a nice bump in yield for the Civic production in September, a jump of about 34 basis points at [$7.47], which was quite good. And hopefully, that trend continues. They have raised their amortized rates, and we still have a nice infill of business.

而且 - 我要補充一點，這包括該銀行在佛羅里達州提供的其他貸款，已經完成，而且看起來非常好。就收益率而言，我不得不非常快地走出去。我們在 9 月份生產的 Civic 產量出現了不錯的增長，上漲了約 34 個基點至 [$7.47]，這非常好。希望這種趨勢繼續下去。他們提高了攤銷利率，我們仍然有大量的業務。

Yes, what you're seeing there in terms of the pipeline is that the pipeline from origination to fund kind of creeping through the balance sheet. I mean the numbers that Matt mentioned, are going to keep creeping up there as that kind of continues to flow through the pipe.

是的，你在管道方面看到的是從發起到基金的管道在資產負債表中蔓延。我的意思是 Matt 提到的數字將繼續攀升，因為這種情況會繼續流過管道。

Yes. There were -- I mean, these deals often are committed 30 days in advance, right, Bill, that I don't know if we call them a rate lock, but it's almost more avocation to do what we said we were going to do. And we don't like to retrade deals. And so some of that is still working through the pipeline. It works through the pipeline in Q3, but I don't think we have any more of that really in Q4 in Civic or in the core bank.

是的。有——我的意思是，這些交易通常提前 30 天承諾，對吧，比爾，我不知道我們是否稱它們為利率鎖定，但做我們說過要做的事情幾乎更像是一種業餘愛好.而且我們不喜歡重新交易。因此，其中一些仍在通過管道進行。它在第三季度通過管道工作，但我認為我們在思域或核心銀行的第四季度真的沒有更多這樣的東西。

Got it. Got it. And then lastly, I wanted to touch on credit. I mean, charge-offs have been very low for a while now. And I'm curious now that we're kind of going into an economic downturn, that's kind of the general consensus what do you think net charge-offs could go to kind of a more normalized level or in a slower economic environment?

知道了。知道了。最後，我想談談信用。我的意思是，一段時間以來收費一直很低。我現在很好奇，我們正在進入經濟衰退，這是一種普遍共識，你認為淨沖銷會達到更正常的水平還是在更慢的經濟環境中？

It's really tough to peg that in a bank like ours. I mean, we're not very actuarial. We're not very consumer-ish. But we continue to do deep dives on all of our portfolios, focusing on things that are more hot buttons and the headlines like office properties and things like that. And we're pretty optimistic on what we see within our portfolio. And for that matter, the banking industry overall.

在像我們這樣的銀行中很難做到這一點。我的意思是，我們不是精算師。我們不是很消費。但我們繼續深入研究我們所有的投資組合，專注於更熱門的話題和頭條新聞，如辦公物業等。我們對我們在投資組合中看到的內容非常樂觀。就此而言，整個銀行業。

Again, I think great lessons were learned in the Great Recession and banks are very -- were much more conservative in their underwriting and lending. And I think pretty optimistic about that. So I don't see any real ugly patches ahead. Bill, do you have anything to add to that?

同樣，我認為從大衰退中吸取了重要教訓，銀行在承銷和貸款方面非常保守。我認為對此非常樂觀。所以我看不到任何真正醜陋的補丁。比爾，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Yes. What I would say to that, Brandon, is that the past 5 to 7 years inside of this company have really, in my mind, played itself out in terms of the stated numbers. You've seen classifies criticized, special mentions, nonaccruals, really be at the lower end of our historical range. And I don't think that's a fluke. I think that's the direct result from all the work that's done. The composition of the balance sheet is materially different than it's ever been. And I think when you look out, could you see it like a bump here or there in terms of an individual credit for sure.

是的。是的。對此，布蘭登，我要說的是，在我看來，在這家公司內部的過去 5 到 7 年，確實按照規定的數字發揮了作用。你已經看到分類批評，特別提及，非應計項目，確實處於我們歷史範圍的低端。我不認為這是僥倖。我認為這是所有已完成工作的直接結果。資產負債表的構成與以往大不相同。而且我認為，當您向外看時，就個人信用而言，您是否可以肯定地將其視為這里或那裡的顛簸。

But I think the overall loss content as I think we've continued to prove out quarter in and quarter out, I think is very, very manageable. So I don't think you're like -- I know that there's historically been some thoughts of the credit here. And I would point to the fact that the nonaccrual numbers have been near the lowest that we've ever had and all the other metrics jive with that special merchants classifieds criticize.

但我認為總體損失內容，因為我認為我們已經連續一個季度又一個季度地證明了這一點，我認為這是非常非常可控的。所以我不認為你喜歡 - 我知道歷史上有一些關於這裡的信用的想法。我要指出的是，非應計利潤數字接近我們曾經擁有的最低水平，而且所有其他指標都與特殊商家分類廣告所批評的一致。

So the intense scrutiny that Matt talked about, we're doing on a daily basis is our job. That's what we get paid to do. And I think you're going to see it continue to show up in some pretty strong loan in credit metrics.

因此，我們每天都在做 Matt 談到的嚴格審查，這就是我們的工作。這就是我們得到報酬的事情。而且我認為你會看到它繼續出現在一些相當強勁的信用指標貸款中。

I mean, Bart, what in venture, for instance, what does our charge-offs been for the past 3 years? I think Net 0.

我的意思是，巴特，例如，在過去 3 年中，我們的沖銷是什麼？我認為淨 0。

Yes. It's been very, very low.

是的。它一直非常非常低。

Which is pretty -- just damn, what a great job.

這很漂亮 - 該死的，多麼棒的工作。

Matt, we're not recovering about $1.2 million through this year.

馬特，我們今年無法收回大約 120 萬美元。

Yes. Yes. I mean that's -- but I mean, if you like at the previous 2 years, Mark, we were net positive, too, I think, in recoveries.

是的。是的。我的意思是——但我的意思是，如果你喜歡在過去的兩年裡，馬克，我認為我們在復蘇方面也是淨積極的。

2021, '21, we were as well, yes.

2021 年，'21，我們也是，是的。

Yes. It's pretty remarkable that's a business that, as you know, in tech and life sciences, if something goes wrong, that's a [doughnut] I mean it goes to 0. Now we often can recover money, but you're not recovering at a high level. But I think our people have done a great job and we've been able to keep the customers and most importantly, keep that $12.5 billion, $12.2 billion in deposits.

是的。正如你所知，這是一項非常了不起的業務，在技術和生命科學領域，如果出現問題，那就是 [甜甜圈] 我的意思是它會變為 0。現在我們通常可以收回資金，但你不會立即恢復高水平。但我認為我們的員工做得很好，我們能夠留住客戶，最重要的是，留住 125 億美元、122 億美元的存款。

And our next question comes from Chris McGratty.

我們的下一個問題來自 Chris McGratty。

On the NII guide, the slow growth or modest growth in Q4. If I put the pieces together for next year, like down-ish, flattish balance sheet. I heard your comments on margins. Do you think NII can grow from that fourth quarter number into 2023? Or is there going to be some pressure on that?

在 NII 指南上，第四季度增長緩慢或適度增長。如果我把明年的各個部分放在一起，比如低迷、持平的資產負債表。我聽到了您對邊距的評論。您認為 NII 可以從第四季度的數字增長到 2023 年嗎？或者會有一些壓力嗎？

We think it will grow in 2023.

我們認為它會在 2023 年增長。

Okay. So grow off the Q4, great. And then second, within the venture book, I think you said it was $12.2 billion. Where is the composition of that in your deposit portfolio? How much is interest-bearing versus noninterest?

好的。所以從第四季度開始增長，太好了。其次，在風險書中，我想你說的是 122 億美元。它在您的存款組合中的構成在哪裡？有息與無息分別是多少？

Mark, do you happen to have that?

馬克，你碰巧有那個嗎？

I don't have that breakdown, not for venture specifics.

我沒有那種細分，不是針對風險投資的具體情況。

We will get back to you on it, Chris.

克里斯，我們會盡快回复您。

Okay. And then maybe lastly...

好的。然後也許最後...

Go ahead.

前進。

Go ahead, Matt.

來吧，馬特。

The majority is going to be interest bearing. Yes. I mean it's money market. Yes. I mean, you're over $50 million, and there's a lot of deposits in that population that are over $50 million. But you have the overall -- what's the rate on the overall portfolio of in venture?

大多數將是計息的。是的。我的意思是這是貨幣市場。是的。我的意思是，你的收入超過 5000 萬美元，而且該人群中有很多存款超過 5000 萬美元。但是你有整體 - 風險投資的整體投資組合的比率是多少？

It's 93 basis points.

這是93個基點。

Yes. Yes. So for it's more expensive -- it leaves -- it's more from driven by the $50 million and over depositors for obvious reasons, their big deposits are going to put their hand out. When interest rates are at historic lows, they don't really care.

是的。是的。因此，由於它更昂貴——它離開了——它更多地是由 5000 萬美元和超過儲戶驅動的，出於明顯的原因，他們的大筆存款將拿出他們的手。當利率處於歷史低位時，他們並不真正關心。

Got it. And just to make sure here, Chris, as well, I mean, the betas for venture bank specifically have been tracking against other uprate cycles, too. So there's no anomaly here in that sense.

知道了。為了確保這裡，克里斯，我的意思是，風險銀行的貝塔也一直在追踪其他加息週期。所以從這個意義上說，這裡沒有異常。

Yes. Got it. Just 1 on the expenses for next year. I think there's an assessment for the industry FDIC assessment that's going to go through. Is that -- how should we think about the magnitude of that for you guys?

是的。知道了。明年的開支只有1。我認為 FDIC 評估將要通過的行業評估。那是——我們應該如何考慮這對你們來說的重要性？

Yes. I mean we haven't calculated that out. I mean, we're going through the budget process now and looking at the assessments. Obviously, like I mentioned, we saw an uptick this quarter, because of the assessment being higher on those sales. So that had an impact on the Q2 assessment, and that will have an impact on Q3 assessment. And so we'll see how that continues to play out based on where those deposits go. And then we'll look at the increase.

是的。我的意思是我們還沒有計算出來。我的意思是，我們現在正在進行預算流程並查看評估。顯然，就像我提到的那樣，本季度我們看到了增長，因為對這些銷售額的評估更高。所以這對第二季度的評估產生了影響，這將對第三季度的評估產生影響。因此，我們將根據這些存款的去向，看看這將如何繼續發揮作用。然後我們會看看增長情況。

I would add too, Chris, it looks very modest to me. But we have -- we'll have to calculate ahead.

我還要補充一點，克里斯，我覺得這很謙虛。但我們有——我們必須提前計算。

And our next question is coming from David Long.

我們的下一個問題來自 David Long。

I wanted to circle back on the credit side of things. And A lot of your peers have been building reserves here ahead of any pressure despite seeing no sort of kinks in the armor at this point. What would it take for you guys to really start building that reserve level up? Is it something you need to see my Moody's change their forecast? Go ahead.

我想回到事情的信用方面。儘管此時沒有看到盔甲有任何扭結，但您的許多同行已經在任何壓力之前在這裡建立了儲備。你們需要什麼才能真正開始建立儲備水平？你需要看到我的穆迪改變他們的預測嗎？前進。

I mean you have to see classifieds going up dramatically, and you have to see some real waves out there. But I mean, if you go down and look through the components of our portfolio, you don't see a lot of risk there. I mean our multifamily portfolio has held up and across the country, it really has, I mean, multifamily portfolios have held up really well. I don't know. There has to be a big wave change. I just don't see it happening, but maybe I'm an eternal optimist. I don't know if Bill, you got to comment or Paul?

我的意思是你必須看到分類廣告急劇上升，你必須看到那裡有一些真正的浪潮。但我的意思是，如果你深入了解我們投資組合的組成部分，你會發現那裡沒有太多風險。我的意思是，我們的多戶型投資組合在全國范圍內都表現良好，我的意思是，多戶型投資組合確實表現良好。我不知道。必須有一個大的浪潮變化。我只是沒有看到它發生，但也許我是一個永遠的樂觀主義者。我不知道比爾，你必鬚髮表評論還是保羅？

No. What I would say about that is like, look, like we're preparing for whatever gets thrown at us. We're not seeing it today, and that's just capital and reserves. It's not single amount towards 1 of them.

不，我想說的是，看，就像我們正在為扔給我們的任何東西做準備。我們今天沒有看到，那隻是資本和儲備。這不是其中之一的單一金額。

You got to keep in mind, our NPA ratio is at 34 basis points, which is pretty low.

你必須記住，我們的 NPA 比率為 34 個基點，這非常低。

When you think about -- we're still -- our ECL is still above our seasonal adoption slightly. And you have to think about where it's going to -- I mean where is -- I think about it every day to tell you the truth. Where are the hot spots can be, you leverage finance, we're not in them. I think the consumer has got a lot of -- there's trouble up ahead in my mind for the consumer. I mean there is true inflation.

當你想到——我們仍然——我們的 ECL 仍然略高於我們的季節性採用。你必須考慮它的去向——我的意思是它在哪裡——我每天都在想它是為了告訴你真相。哪裡可以熱點，你槓桿金融，我們不在裡面。我認為消費者已經有很多 - 我認為消費者面臨著麻煩。我的意思是真正的通貨膨脹。

I mean, I don't spend a lot of time at the grocery store, but I get a lot of comment from my spouse about how much more everything costs. I -- what I do understand is when we go to a restaurant, I usually pay the bill. And I'm looking at it, and it's dramatically higher in cost, that sort of thing. I look at our bank. We're giving people raises, much higher raises than we have in the past due to inflation, and that's here to stay.

我的意思是，我在雜貨店花的時間不多，但我的配偶經常評論說每樣東西都要貴多少。我——我所理解的是，當我們去餐館時，我通常會付賬。我正在看它，它的成本要高得多，諸如此類。我看看我們的銀行。由於通貨膨脹，我們正在給人們加薪，比過去高得多，而且這種情況會一直存在。

I mean, there's real inflation out there. So I think -- and the consumer isn't keeping up with it. We hear that every day. If you listen to the news, I mean a 5% raise is going to keep up with what's going on with gas prices, food costs and that sort of thing. So there's going to be -- there's going to be pain out there. I just don't think it manifests itself in a portfolio like PacWest so much.

我的意思是，那裡確實存在通貨膨脹。所以我認為 - 消費者並沒有跟上它。我們每天都聽到。如果你聽新聞，我的意思是加薪 5% 將跟上汽油價格、食品成本和諸如此類的事情。所以會有 - 那裡會很痛苦。我只是不認為它會在像 PacWest 這樣的投資組合中體現出來。

And I think the other thing that is your non-bank lenders have been much more aggressive. When you look at a large real estate project, which we commonly see is the senior debt, which is a bank, anywhere from 50% to 60% leverage. And then there's 20% amounts after that, and the amounts that's charging them probably double good rates and then the equity. I mean, you're nonbank lenders or the guys that have a big risk on whether it's office or any kind of CRE in my mind.

而且我認為另一件事是您的非銀行貸方更加激進。當你看一個大型房地產項目時，我們通常看到的是銀行的高級債務，槓桿率在 50% 到 60% 之間。然後是 20% 的金額，向他們收取的金額可能是良好利率的兩倍，然後是股權。我的意思是，你是非銀行貸款人，或者是那些在我心目中無論是辦公室還是任何類型的 CRE 都有很大風險的人。

And so I think you're going to see it. The other thing a bank can do in you guys have probably all heard me say this over the years, when times do get tough and a borrower gets stressed and that we even went through that as most recently as the pandemic, particularly as it related to hospitality, we could be flexible with our borrower. We're not a CMBS. We're not a structured CLO or whatever, and we could back off the rate for a while, looking to fight another day and maybe getting improving loyalty from that customer.

所以我想你會看到它。多年來，銀行可以為你們做的另一件事可能都聽過我說過，當日子變得艱難，借款人感到壓力時，我們甚至在最近的大流行病中經歷過這種情況，特別是與熱情好客，我們可以靈活對待借款人。我們不是 CMBS。我們不是結構化的 CLO 或其他什麼，我們可以暫時降低利率，期待改天再戰，也許可以提高該客戶的忠誠度。

We give up some income in the short-term, but you can keep from having a problem. And I've been in this business for decades, and I've seen that happen. And as a CEO, I've been involved in those kinds of transactions. And it's really worked out well. That's the way to go about it.

我們在短期內放棄了一些收入，但你可以避免出現問題。我從事這項業務已有數十年，而且我已經看到了這種情況。作為首席執行官，我參與了這類交易。結果真的很好。這就是解決問題的方法。

No, that's great color and a testament to the way that you guys treat your customers. So the -- I appreciate the update on the yield -- the underwriting yields on Civic. Do you guys have a specific reserve for that part of your portfolio?

不，那是很棒的顏色，證明了你們對待客戶的方式。所以——我很欣賞收益率的更新——Civic 的承銷收益率。你們對投資組合的那部分有特定的儲備嗎？

We do. We do. Sure. It's treated like every other loan asset class that we have. So it has its own reserve based on the history, both inside and outside.

我們的確是。我們的確是。當然。它與我們擁有的所有其他貸款資產類別一樣對待。所以它根據歷史有自己的儲備，內外兼修。

When you think about that business, and I do not, as much as Bill does, you think about that business, there's decent down payments on these properties. And again, our average loan size is $355,000. And there's real equity in those deals, and there's still just a huge need for affordable housing out there. It's going to get tricky. I mean again, a lot of these would be considered starter homes and our people in that category going to go out and pay up 6.5%, 7% for a mortgage, maybe not. So a lot of this business could end up fixed to Brent, of which we have a sizable portfolio of that today too, and that could be where it ends up in the short-term.

當你想到那筆生意時，我不像比爾那樣想到那筆生意，這些房產有可觀的首付。同樣，我們的平均貸款規模為 355,000 美元。這些交易具有真正的公平性，而且對經濟適用房的需求仍然很大。這會變得棘手。我的意思是，其中很多將被視為入門房，而我們這一類的人會出去支付 6.5%、7% 的抵押貸款，也許不會。所以很多業務最終可能會固定在布倫特原油上，我們今天也有相當大的投資組合，這可能是它在短期內結束的地方。

So -- but I'm still pretty optimistic. I mean we have much higher delinquency rates in that portfolio. We have -- as a percentage, we have higher nonaccruals in that sort of thing. But in the end, we don't take losses. We have other people that are willing to step into those properties (inaudible) or whatever it might be. So I'm still pretty optimistic about that. And the Florida thing, it's going to be fascinating, because there's going to -- there's clearly going to be rebuilt in Florida. People want to be there. And some of these -- some of the most desirable areas in that state got the hell kicked out of it. And they're going to rebuild.

所以——但我仍然很樂觀。我的意思是我們在該投資組合中的拖欠率要高得多。我們有 - 作為一個百分比，我們在這類事情中有更高的非應計項目。但最終，我們不會遭受損失。我們有其他人願意進入這些屬性（聽不清）或任何可能的屬性。所以我對此還是很樂觀的。佛羅里達州的事情，它會很吸引人，因為很明顯，佛羅里達州會重建。人們想在那裡。其中一些 - 該州一些最令人嚮往的地區被踢出了地獄。他們將重建。

It may not be the person that lives in that home today, but that person may be selling what's left of their house for land value and something better will be built there. I think you've seen it in all natural disasters, and I think it's something said that to its getter data later, Katrina. I mean, they build back better by far, and that (inaudible) thing. I'll take that back, anyway.

可能不是今天住在那個房子裡的人，但那個人可能會賣掉他們房子剩下的東西以獲得土地價值，然後在那裡建造更好的東西。我想你在所有自然災害中都見過它，我想這是後來對它的吸氣劑數據說的，卡特里娜颶風。我的意思是，到目前為止，他們重建得更好，還有那（聽不清）的事情。無論如何，我會收回的。

So I mean I think that you're going to see that going way back to the Northridge earthquake in California, you definitely saw that.

所以我的意思是，我認為你會看到這種情況可以追溯到加利福尼亞州的北嶺地震，你肯定看到了。

We had a question come in through the web chat. So it was asking for an update on the HOA acquisition. So Bill, maybe you want to talk about that?

我們通過網絡聊天提出了一個問題。所以它要求更新 HOA 收購。所以比爾，也許你想談談這個？

Yes. So the HOA business has been a great add for us. We spent the vast majority of 2022 integrating the platform into the bank as well as starting to combine our legacy business with that business into 1 HOA business. Overall deposits have been stable -- and I believe somebody was asking about the betas there. Our betas in that group or amongst the lowest in the bank in terms of that. So we feel good about where we are. The plan was get it integrated and then looks for growth in '23 and beyond. Having say that, that was the plan, and that's what we've produced.

是的。所以 HOA 業務對我們來說是一個很好的補充。我們花了 2022 年的大部分時間將該平台集成到銀行中，並開始將我們的傳統業務與該業務合併為 1 HOA 業務。總體存款一直穩定——我相信有人在詢問那裡的貝塔值。就此而言，我們在該組中的貝塔值或銀行中最低的貝塔值。所以我們對自己的處境感覺良好。該計劃是將其整合，然後在 23 世紀及以後尋求增長。話雖如此，這就是計劃，這就是我們的成果。

So we feel really good about the diversity of funding and what it gives us for the bank. And we think it's like we're really excited about all the hard work that our team has done to put it together, and we're excited about what's to come in.

因此，我們對資金的多樣性及其為銀行帶來的好處感到非常滿意。我們認為這就像我們對我們的團隊為將它整合在一起所做的所有辛勤工作感到非常興奮，我們對即將發生的事情感到興奮。

Yes, we're going to really concentrate on the staffing there and try to really ramp it up. I love that business. And we took our time to integrate it as effectively as possible and not lose customers, which we haven't. And now it's time to grow it.

是的，我們將真正專注於那裡的人員配置，並努力真正提高它。我喜歡那個行業。我們花時間盡可能有效地整合它，而不是失去我們沒有的客戶。現在是時候種植它了。

Operator, are there any more questions?

接線員，還有問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) We'll our next question from Jon Arfstrom.

（操作員說明）我們將回答 Jon Arfstrom 的下一個問題。

Can you talk a little bit about momentum in your production yields? I know you touched on it a little bit at Civic, but you've got the [592] average for the quarter. What does that look like today?

你能談談你的產量增長勢頭嗎？我知道你在 Civic 稍微提到過它，但你得到了本季度的 [592] 平均值。今天看起來像什麼？

Do you want to take it Mark?

馬克，你要拿走嗎？

I think -- so or what I would say is that you see the movement in the loan production yields move up pretty significantly. We talked about it a lot in the second quarter about how both higher rates and mix shift is going to continue to help that. I think you're going to continue to see that. And a lot of that is going to be a lot of the same stuff we've talked about, right, higher rates, mix shift, incremental production going to a higher yield. So all of those things are going to contribute to that.

我認為 - 所以或者我要說的是，你看到貸款生產收益率的變動非常顯著。我們在第二季度多次討論了更高的利率和混合轉變將如何繼續幫助實現這一目標。我想你會繼續看到這一點。其中很多將是我們已經討論過的很多相同的東西，正確的，更高的利率，混合轉變，增量生產將獲得更高的產量。所以所有這些事情都會為此做出貢獻。

I just think if you look at where our variable rate loans are just off of spreads compared to how much LIBOR or SOFR has moved, you will see that incremental yields will continue to keep creeping up from there. And it's super hard to be specific because it will depend on the type of loan that is in there because you can see pretty wide variances between asset classes, but we feel it's going to continue to creep up.

我只是想，如果你看看我們的浮動利率貸款與 LIBOR 或 SOFR 的變動幅度相比，利差的位置，你會發現增量收益率將繼續從那裡爬升。而且很難具體說明，因為這將取決於其中的貸款類型，因為您可以看到資產類別之間存在相當大的差異，但我們認為它將繼續上升。

Yes. Okay. That was a big step up in the quarter. Just a couple -- Bart, what's left to do on hiring? You talked about flattish expenses, but what do you feel like you have left to do?

是的。好的。這是本季度的一大進步。就幾個——巴特，招聘還剩下什麼？你談到了平淡的開支，但你覺得你還有什麼事要做？

Well, we've -- as Matt mentioned, we're looking at every new hire, whether it's a new ad or a replacement. We have a process around that, that we implemented in September. But we still are committed to our digital and innovation strategy, our Vision 2025. And so they had a slow start we talked about this at the beginning of the year that there was going to be investment in this area. Very slow start in the first quarter. We saw the FTEs ramp up in Q2 and Q3. Although Q3 was down from Q2, but we still have some hiring to do in that group as we get to where we're going to be.

好吧，我們已經 - 正如馬特提到的那樣，我們正在關注每一位新員工，無論是新廣告還是替代者。我們有一個流程，我們在 9 月份實施了該流程。但我們仍然致力於我們的數字和創新戰略，即我們的 2025 年願景。因此他們起步緩慢，我們在年初談到了這一領域的投資。第一季度開局非常緩慢。我們看到 FTE 在第二季度和第三季度有所上升。儘管第三季度比第二季度有所下降，但在我們到達我們要去的地方時，我們仍然需要在該小組中進行一些招聘。

But I think the pace slowed through the combination of the people they've already hired and just taking a hard look at just FTEs overall. But I do think there's probably a little bit more there that we'll see in the fourth quarter. And then we'll see where that goes next year. I don't know, Paul, if you want to add to that?

但我認為，由於他們已經僱用的人員的結合以及對整體 FTE 的認真審視，這一步伐放緩了。但我確實認為我們會在第四季度看到更多。然後我們將看到明年的發展方向。保羅，我不知道你是否想補充一點？

Yes. That's an area we're looking at very seriously, and we are going to get more aggressive on that. as we've stated a couple of times during that call. This call, I have -- I look at every new hire and every replacement that's VP and above and I've got to sign off on it in order for it to be filled. So we're getting very serious on FTEs. That's been a lot of the increase. Civic is fully built out in terms of FTEs.

是的。這是我們非常認真地關注的一個領域，我們將在這方面變得更加積極。正如我們在那次電話會議中多次聲明的那樣。這個電話，我有——我會查看每一個新員工和每一個副總裁及以上級別的替代人員，我必須簽署它才能填補它。所以我們對 FTE 變得非常認真。這是很大的增長。 Civic 完全建立在 FTE 方面。

So there'll be no more Civic creep that's been about half of our FTE increase. So again, we're going to get very serious about expenses here.

因此，不會再有 Civic creep，這已經占我們 FTE 增長的一半左右。因此，我們將再次認真對待這裡的費用。

I mean -- we just got -- I mean, in that case I think we're not going to be the loan [ranges] in the industry. You've got to look at nook and cranny right now.

我的意思是 - 我們剛剛 - 我的意思是，在那種情況下，我認為我們不會成為行業中的貸款 [範圍]。你現在必須看看角落和縫隙。

Okay. Last question, and I hate the question, but I'm actually kind of interested in the answer. But just Matt, can you touch on -- or Paul, just the quality of deals that you're seeing in competitive behavior. Some people say larger banks are pulling out of CRE. Other banks, some of your peers are putting up kind of 8% to 10% annualized loan growth. But I'm just curious what your assessment is of the competitor of the environment and the quality of these.

好的。最後一個問題，我討厭這個問題，但實際上我對答案很感興趣。但是，只有馬特，你能談談——或者保羅，你能談談你在競爭行為中看到的交易質量嗎？有人說大型銀行正在退出 CRE。其他銀行，你的一些同行提出了 8% 到 10% 的年化貸款增長。但我只是想知道您對環境的競爭對手及其質量的評估是什麼。

Yes. I think the deal flow, first of all, Jon, we've really curtailed the deal flow with the exception of very large deposit customers. And I think the deal flow has been good and the underwriting has been good, and you got a lot of guys pulling out. Maybe that was somewhat summer, but you got a lot of guys that were -- I mean, the rates are better and not just the rates and spreads, where we were looking at -- we were facing SOFR plus $2.75 on certain kinds of projects, those are clearly up 1%, SOFR $3.75.

是的。我認為交易流程，首先，喬恩，我們確實減少了交易流程，但非常大的存款客戶除外。而且我認為交易流程一直很好，承銷也很好，很多人退出了。也許那是夏天，但你有很多人 - 我的意思是，利率更好，而不僅僅是我們所關注的利率和利差 - 我們在某些類型的項目上面臨 SOFR 加 2.75 美元，這些明顯上漲了 1%，SOFR 為 3.75 美元。

We've seen no real decline in the quality of the deal. Again, we're trying to slow it a little bit. We had tremendous growth in the first half of the year. And we've got to rebuild capital here. But also, we've got to prepare for I mean, I think we -- most of us believe there are some rocky waters in front of us, too. So I think by slowing down, that's going to help insulate us from potential losses, too.

我們沒有看到交易質量的真正下降。同樣，我們正在嘗試將其放慢一點。我們在上半年取得了巨大的增長。我們必須在這裡重建首都。但是，我們也必須做好準備，我的意思是，我認為我們 - 我們大多數人都相信我們面前也有一些岩石水域。所以我認為通過放慢速度，這也將幫助我們避免潛在的損失。

I don't see competitors being willy nilly being overly aggressive right now. The aggressiveness we've seen, but it's not specific to this year. As if somebody wants a product, they just priced to win, right? It's not a structure, right.

我不認為競爭對手現在會不情願地過於激進。我們已經看到了侵略性，但這並不是今年特有的。好像有人想要一種產品，他們只是為了取勝而定價，對吧？這不是結構，對吧。

There is Very little decline in underwriting.

承保量幾乎沒有下降。

As you know, we got a couple of deals that we have special mention on. We've got a big hotel that's being taken out by a debt fund. And I'm very happy about it. I mean, we didn't see a loss potential in it anyhow but we just found that out this week, which is good news. There was 1 other deal like that, too. And once again, it was a debt fund. And listen, you're going to pay up, if you go into a debt fund because they're going to give you more leverage. That's generally why they we want to do it.

如您所知，我們有幾筆交易需要特別提及。我們有一家大酒店正被一家債務基金收購。我對此感到非常高興。我的意思是，無論如何我們都沒有看到它有潛在的損失，但我們本週才發現，這是個好消息。還有 1 筆這樣的交易。再一次，它是一個債務基金。聽著，如果你進入債務基金，你會付出代價，因為它們會給你更多的影響力。這通常就是我們想要這樣做的原因。

Well, there's no further questions. We really appreciate everybody's attendance, and we look forward to speaking with you next quarter. Thanks.

好吧，沒有其他問題了。我們非常感謝大家的出席，我們期待著下個季度與您交談。謝謝。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。