Ranpak Holdings Corp (PACK) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello. My name is Jean-Louis. Welcome to the Ranpak Holdings Q1 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

你好。我叫讓-路易斯。歡迎參加 Ranpak Holdings 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Sara Horvath, General Counsel.

我現在想將會議交給總法律顧問 Sara Horvath。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that we will discuss forward-looking statements as defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, including those discussed in our press release and the risk factors identified in our Form 10-K and our other filings filed with the SEC.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。在開始之前，我想提醒您，我們將討論 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述。由於各種因素，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異，包括我們的新聞稿中討論的內容以及我們向 SEC 提交的 10-K 表格和其他文件中確定的風險因素。

Some of the statements and responses to your questions in this conference call may include forward-looking statements that are subject to future events and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from these statements. Ranpak assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, all of which speak to the company only as of today.

本次電話會議中的一些陳述和對您問題的答复可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到未來事件和不確定性的影響，可能導致我們的實際結果與這些陳述存在重大差異。 Ranpak 不承擔任何義務，也不打算更新任何此類前瞻性聲明。您不應過分依賴這些前瞻性陳述，所有這些陳述僅適用於今天的公司。

The earnings release we issued this morning and the presentation for today's call are posted on the Investor Relations section of our website. A copy of the release has been included in the Form 8-K that we submitted to the SEC before this call. We will also make a replay of this conference call available via webcast on the company website.

我們今天早上發布的收益報告和今天電話會議的演示文稿發佈在我們網站的投資者關係部分。該新聞稿的副本已包含在我們在本次電話會議之前提交給 SEC 的 8-K 表格中。我們還將通過公司網站上的網絡廣播重播本次電話會議。

For financial information that is presented on a non-GAAP basis, we have included reconciliations to the comparable GAAP information. Please refer to the table and slide presentation accompanying today's earnings release.

對於按非 GAAP 基礎提供的財務信息，我們已對可比 GAAP 信息進行了調節。請參閱今天收益發布所附的表格和幻燈片演示。

Lastly, we'll be filing our 10-Q with the SEC for the period ending March 31, 2023. The 10-Q will be available through the SEC or on the Investor Relations section of our website.

最後，我們將向 SEC 提交截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日期間的 10-Q。10-Q 將通過 SEC 或我們網站的投資者關係部分提供。

With me today, I have Omar Asali, our Chairman and CEO; and Bill Drew, our CFO. Omar will summarize our first quarter results and provide commentary on the operating landscape, and Bill will provide additional details on the financial results before we open up the call for questions.

今天和我在一起的還有我們的董事長兼首席執行官奧馬爾·阿薩利 (Omar Asali)；和我們的首席財務官比爾德魯。奧馬爾將總結我們第一季度的業績並提供有關運營狀況的評論，比爾將在我們開始提問之前提供有關財務業績的更多詳細信息。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Omar.

這樣，我會將電話轉給奧馬爾。

Thank you, Sara, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you all joining us. Our first quarter financial results were mostly in line with our expectations as we expected top line in the first half of the year to be more subdued with volumes projected to pick up more in the back half of 2023. We shared an update with you on our fourth quarter call that January and February top line results were tracking in line with 2021, and that is roughly how we finished the quarter.

謝謝你，薩拉，大家早上好。我感謝你們大家加入我們。我們第一季度的財務業績基本符合我們的預期，因為我們預計上半年的營收將更加低迷，預計 2023 年下半年銷量將有所回升。我們與您分享了關於我們的最新情況第四季度電話稱 1 月和 2 月的營收結果與 2021 年一致，這大致就是我們完成本季度的方式。

Our top line results of $84.8 million on a constant currency basis is just shy of the $85 million from 2021 and slightly above where we were in Q1 of last year. North America sales were up 1% in the quarter versus last year. I would characterize activity levels in the region as decent in the quarter, but not robust given the macro.

按固定匯率計算，我們的營收為 8480 萬美元，略低於 2021 年的 8500 萬美元，略高於去年第一季度的水平。本季度北美銷售額比去年同期增長 1%。我認為該地區本季度的活動水平不錯，但考慮到宏觀經濟，並不強勁。

The manufacturing sector remains sluggish as evidenced in the PMI data and on the consumer side, e-commerce activity related to more discretionary purchases of goods remained slow as consumers allocate more to services and essentials. You can see this environment reflected in the trucking and container data where volumes are clearly down. I believe the impact of the higher rate environment, bank stresses and increasing unemployment concerns have impacted consumer confidence and warrant a cautious outlook in the near term in North America.

PMI 數據表明，製造業依然低迷，而在消費者方面，隨著消費者將更多資金分配給服務和必需品，與更多可自由支配商品購買相關的電子商務活動仍然緩慢。您可以在貨運和集裝箱數據中看到這種環境，其中貨運量明顯下降。我認為，加息環境、銀行壓力和失業擔憂加劇的影響已經影響了消費者信心，並保證北美近期前景保持謹慎。

While the shorter-term macro is a challenge on a positive note, we are making inroads with many key accounts that have historically been plastic only. These are longer sales cycle processes, but we can feel the momentum in discussions throughout these organizations shifting towards paper. I believe it is only a matter of time before the volumes in North America start to reflect this.

雖然短期宏觀經濟是一個積極的挑戰，但我們正在向許多歷史上只屬於塑料的關鍵客戶取得進展。這些是較長的銷售週期流程，但我們可以感受到這些組織中討論轉向紙質的勢頭。我相信北美的銷量開始反映這一點只是時間問題。

Europe and APAC activity levels in the first quarter were fairly solid with sales up 1% versus the prior year. From a regional perspective, within the reporting group, I would say Europe was stronger than Asia as we seem to be through the destocking that impacted us last year and the better-than-expected energy environment has improved confidence. I would not call it a robust environment there as I think many businesses and consumers are cautious given the continuing inflationary pressures and uncertain energy outlook, but I would characterize it as a solid baseline to operate from.

第一季度歐洲和亞太地區的活動水平相當穩定，銷售額比去年同期增長了 1%。從區域角度來看，在報告小組內，我想說歐洲比亞洲更強勁，因為我們似乎已經經歷了去年影響我們的去庫存，而且好於預期的能源環境提高了信心。我不會稱其為強勁的環境，因為我認為考慮到持續的通脹壓力和不確定的能源前景，許多企業和消費者都持謹慎態度，但我將其描述為堅實的運營基準。

In APAC, we had a strong start versus plan, but the outlook there is somewhat uneven with pockets of strength in places like Japan and Korea, and some weakness in Australia and China. The environment remains a challenging one, where nowhere really feels robust right now.

在亞太地區，我們的開局與計劃相比表現強勁，但前景有些參差不齊，日本和韓國等地表現強勁，澳大利亞和中國則表現疲弱。當前的環境仍然充滿挑戰，目前沒有任何地方真正讓人感覺穩健。

Overall, I would say the start to the year was stronger in all geographies with January and February results pretty solid and then activity levels softening towards the end of March and to the start of the second quarter. Our trial activity and customer engagement is solid. And while the short term is choppy, given the state of the world and the consumer, I do like what I'm seeing out of some larger accounts we are chasing.

總體而言，我想說，所有地區的年初都表現強勁，1 月和 2 月的業績相當穩健，然後活動水平在 3 月底和第二季度初開始疲軟。我們的試用活動和客戶參與度非常穩定。雖然短期波動較大，但考慮到世界和消費者的狀況，我確實喜歡從我們正在追逐的一些較大客戶中看到的情況。

As a reminder, we have significantly more favorable comparisons in the second half of the year, which leads me to continue to be constructive on the outlook for the year, even with a slower start.

提醒一下，我們在下半年有明顯更有利的比較，這使我繼續對今年的前景持建設性態度，即使開局較慢。

While the top line outlook is not as robust as I would like, the input cost environment continues to be a positive surprise compared to our plan as the paper markets have remained favorable. North America has seen some pricing improvement since the start of the year, but pricing remains higher than I would have anticipated under the circumstances, given the supply-demand dynamics, which to me would point to more pressure on pricing in our favor.

雖然營收前景並不像我希望的那樣強勁，但與我們的計劃相比，投入成本環境仍然令人驚喜，因為紙張市場仍然有利。自今年年初以來，北美的定價有所改善，但考慮到供需動態，定價仍然高於我在這種情況下的預期，這對我來說將表明定價壓力更大，對我們有利。

In Europe, the better-than-expected energy environment has helped drive improvement in the paper markets to start the year. We have all seen how volatile energy can be and what extreme weather swings can do. So we continue to monitor the environment closely and are focused on derisking the remainder of the year as much as possible with our vendors who are able to lock in forward pricing.

在歐洲，好於預期的能源環境幫助推動了年初紙張市場的改善。我們都已經看到了能源的波動性以及極端天氣波動的後果。因此，我們將繼續密切監控環境，並致力於與能夠鎖定遠期定價的供應商一起盡可能降低今年剩餘時間的風險。

Overall, we feel good about continuing to claw back our gross margins throughout the year and our commitment to getting closer to our targeted gross margin profile. Outside of favorable movements in energy, paper and logistics, inflationary pressures in labor and services persist globally, so we are making adjustments to areas of spend within our control until the operating environment provides better clarity. We've examined all of our forward spend and prioritized areas of need, while deferring areas that are not immediately required to support the business or do not provide near-term revenue-generating opportunities.

總體而言，我們對全年繼續收回毛利率以及更加接近目標毛利率的承諾感到滿意。除了能源、造紙和物流的有利走勢之外，全球勞動力和服務業的通脹壓力持續存在，因此我們正在對我們控制範圍內的支出領域進行調整，直到經營環境變得更加清晰。我們檢查了所有的遠期支出和優先需求領域，同時推遲了不立即需要支持業務或不提供短期創收機會的領域。

We are laser-focused on productivity and doing more with what we have built over the past few years. I'm pleased to report we have opened up our new European headquarters in Eygelshoven. I want to congratulate our team on doing a fantastic job of making this transition as smooth as possible for our customers and our employees. Our operations have not missed a beat. And as of April, our employees are all working out of that new facility.

我們高度關註生產力，並利用過去幾年所建立的成果做更多事情。我很高興地向大家報告，我們已在埃格爾斯霍芬開設了新的歐洲總部。我要祝賀我們的團隊所做的出色工作，使我們的客戶和員工盡可能順利地完成這一過渡。我們的運營沒有錯過任何一個節拍。截至四月，我們的員工都在新設施中工作。

Our R&D and automation center in North America is on track to open this summer, providing us with the ability to manufacture automation equipment in the region and finally have a showroom in the region where we can bring prospective customers. I believe this will be a game-changer for our automation business in the U.S. market and will really help propel us to the next level.

我們在北美的研發和自動化中心預計將於今年夏天開業，使我們有能力在該地區製造自動化設備，並最終在該地區擁有一個展廳，為我們帶來潛在客戶。我相信這將改變我們在美國市場的自動化業務的遊戲規則，並將真正幫助我們邁向新的水平。

We completed the funding of these real estate capital commitments over the course of the next few months. Beyond that, we are focused on conserving capital and getting back to the cash-generating engine Ranpak has been known for since inception. We're a small company, but we now have a state-of-the-art digital and physical infrastructure to aid us in running the business and serving our customers. It is time for us to harvest what we have been investing in for the past number of years and drive efficiencies while being tighter on our capital spend.

我們在接下來的幾個月內完成了這些房地產資本承諾的融資。除此之外，我們還專注於節省資本，並恢復 Ranpak 自成立以來就聞名的現金生成引擎。我們是一家小公司，但我們現在擁有最先進的數字和物理基礎設施來幫助我們運營業務和服務客戶。現在是我們收穫過去幾年投資成果、提高效率、同時收緊資本支出的時候了。

We're taking a more targeted and focused approach to the business and prioritizing only those activities in the near term that can really move the needle. I'm extremely pleased with the quality of our team and our product pipeline and believe a focus on execution and enhancing productivity rather than expansion in the near term will deliver the best results.

我們對業務採取更有針對性和重點的方法，並只優先考慮那些短期內真正能起到推動作用的活動。我對我們團隊和產品線的質量非常滿意，並相信短期內專注於執行和提高生產力而不是擴張將帶來最佳結果。

Now with that, let me turn it over to Bill for some financial detail.

現在，讓我把它交給比爾了解一些財務細節。

Thank you, Omar. In the deck, you'll see a summary of some of our key performance indicators. We'll also be filing our 10-Q, which provides further information on Ranpak's operating results.

謝謝你，奧馬爾。在該演示文稿中，您將看到我們一些關鍵績效指標的摘要。我們還將提交 10-Q，其中提供了有關 Ranpak 經營業績的更多信息。

Machine placement increased 3.8% year-over-year to over 139,600 machines globally. Cushioning systems declined 1%, while void-fill installed systems increased 5% and wrapping increased 7% year-over-year. Growth in the machine field population has been lower this year due to a combination of lower activity levels generally and our efforts to optimize our fleet. To maximize capital efficiency, we are focused on getting underutilized converters back and redeploying them to more productive areas.

全球機器貼裝量同比增長 3.8%，達到超過 139,600 台。緩衝系統同比下降 1%，而空隙填充安裝系統同比增長 5%，包裹系統同比增長 7%。由於活動水平普遍較低以及我們優化機隊的努力，今年機器現場人口的增長較低。為了最大限度地提高資本效率，我們致力於恢復未充分利用的轉換器並將其重新部署到生產力更高的領域。

Overall, net revenue for the company in the first quarter was up 1% year-over-year on a constant currency basis, driven by increased price and contribution from automation, offset by slightly lower volumes.

總體而言，在價格上漲和自動化貢獻的推動下，公司第一季度的淨收入按固定匯率計算同比增長 1%，但銷量略有下降所抵消。

North America net revenue increased 1% year-over-year with cushioning and void-fill up versus the prior year, offset by continued headwinds in wrapping. Cushioning demand remained fairly steady. While e-commerce activity as it relates to more discretionary merchandise remained lower due to inflationary pressures and the pull forward of purchases we have discussed previously.

北美地區的淨收入同比增長 1%，與上年相比有所緩沖和填補空白，但被包裝行業的持續不利因素所抵消。緩衝需求保持相當穩定。儘管由於通脹壓力和我們之前討論過的購買提前，與更多非必需商品相關的電子商務活動仍然較低。

In Europe and APAC, net revenue on a constant currency basis was up 1% year-over-year with all categories up slightly in the quarter. Volumes were down slightly in the region year-over-year, but we are pleased with the base level of activity given the volatility of energy and remaining inflationary pressures in the region.

在歐洲和亞太地區，按固定匯率計算的淨收入同比增長 1%，本季度所有類別均略有增長。該地區的交易量同比略有下降，但考慮到該地區能源的波動性和剩餘的通脹壓力，我們對基本的活動水平感到滿意。

Automation sales increased 6% year-over-year and represented approximately 5% of sales on a constant currency basis as we continue to get traction in the space with our box customization and automated dunnage solutions.

自動化銷售額同比增長 6%，按固定匯率計算約佔銷售額的 5%，因為我們通過盒子定制和自動化墊料解決方案繼續在該領域獲得牽引力。

Our gross profit increased 15% on a constant currency basis, implying a margin of 34% compared to 29.8% in the prior year. The prior year comparison had some noise given the SAP go live in the first quarter where we experienced some inefficiencies, resulting in approximately 1.5 point drag on the margin. So if you take that into account, gross profit would be up approximately 8% on a constant currency basis.

按固定匯率計算，我們的毛利潤增長了 15%，這意味著利潤率為 34%，而上一年為 29.8%。鑑於 SAP 在第一季度上線，我們遇到了一些效率低下的情況，導致利潤率下降了約 1.5 個百分點，因此與上一年的比較存在一些噪音。因此，如果考慮到這一點，按固定匯率計算，毛利潤將增長約 8%。

I think it's helpful to point out the inflection in the gross margin profile and step up from the 28.1% margin experienced in Q4 2022 on a very similar revenue profile. We shared in our fourth quarter call, we expected the gross margin environment to steadily improve throughout the year as the benefits of the input cost environment improves. We see this in Q1 as some of the paper benefits flow through beginning in February and March. Obviously, as more volumes flow through, the better pickup will be as we expect to absorb more overhead and get the greater benefit of lower pricing.

我認為指出毛利率狀況的變化以及在收入狀況非常相似的情況下從 2022 年第四季度的 28.1% 的利潤率上升是有幫助的。我們在第四季度電話會議中表示，隨著投入成本環境的效益改善，我們預計全年毛利率環境將穩步改善。我們在第一季度看到了這一點，因為一些票據福利從二月和三月開始流動。顯然，隨著更多的流量通過，更好的提貨將是因為我們期望吸收更多的管理費用並獲得較低價格的更大好處。

Adjusted EBITDA declined 21% year-over-year to $15.1 million, implying a 17.8% margin, driven by higher G&A compared to the prior year. On an absolute basis, this is disappointing. But again, you can see the inflection from Q4 2022 where the adjusted EBITDA margin was 15.2%. As we get into the second half of the year, we expect to make up ground and generate a substantial amount of the adjusted EBITDA we plan to generate for the year. We expect that volumes should be higher due to the traditional seasonality of the business. We will also be at a point where we expect that the destocking impact should be completely eliminated in all regions.

調整後 EBITDA 同比下降 21% 至 1,510 萬美元，意味著利潤率為 17.8%，這是由於與上年相比更高的 G&A。從絕對的角度來看，這令人失望。但同樣，您可以看到 2022 年第四季度以來的變化，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 15.2%。隨著進入下半年，我們預計將彌補並產生大量調整後的 EBITDA，我們計劃在今年產生。由於業務的傳統季節性，我們預計銷量應該會更高。我們預計所有地區的去庫存影響都將完全消除。

Last year was very unusual for a variety of reasons, but in particular, the deviation from the usual revenue cadence of the year. Typically, we see the first quarter and second quarters being smaller contributors with the back half comprising up to 55% of revenue for the year. In 2022, our second quarter was our highest revenue contributor. Instead of seeing a step up in the second half of the year, we experienced less than 50% of the revenue being generated in the back half.

由於多種原因，去年是非常不尋常的一年，但特別是偏離了當年通常的收入節奏。通常情況下，我們認為第一季度和第二季度的貢獻較小，後半季度佔全年收入的比例高達 55%。 2022 年，我們第二季度的收入貢獻最大。下半年我們並沒有看到增長，反而看到下半年產生的收入不到 50%。

Beyond the top line cadence, we also expect to have the greatest impact of paper price reductions in the second half as our costs increased steadily throughout 2022 and peaked in the fourth quarter. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $11.8 million, driven by the funding of our real estate projects as well as converter placement.

除了營收節奏之外，我們還預計下半年紙張價格下降的影響最大，因為我們的成本在 2022 年全年穩步增長，並在第四季度達到頂峰。本季度的資本支出為 1,180 萬美元，主要由我們的房地產項目資金以及轉換器安置推動。

Moving briefly to the balance sheet and liquidity. We completed Q1 with a strong liquidity position, including a cash balance of $58.6 million to end the quarter and no drawings on our revolving credit facility. Our net leverage based on reported LTM adjusted EBITDA was 5.7x at the end of the quarter or 5.2x based on the definition of adjusted EBITDA in the credit facility. We are expecting leverage to peak in the second quarter as we fund our capital cadence related to real estate and go up against our most robust quarterly contributor last year, and we expect to begin our deleveraging path to adjusted EBITDA growth in the back half of the year.

簡要討論資產負債表和流動性。我們在第一季度末擁有強勁的流動性狀況，包括截至季度末的現金餘額為 5,860 萬美元，並且沒有循環信貸額度的提款。截至季度末，我們基於報告的 LTM 調整後 EBITDA 的淨槓桿率為 5.7 倍，根據信貸額度中調整後 EBITDA 的定義為 5.2 倍。我們預計槓桿率將在第二季度達到峰值，因為我們為與房地產相關的資本節奏提供資金，並與去年最強勁的季度貢獻者相比，我們預計將在下半年開始我們的去槓桿化道路，以實現調整後的 EBITDA 增長年。

I want to reiterate the message from the fourth quarter where we recognized the importance of maintaining a strong cash and liquidity position and are focused on returning to our targeted leverage ratio of 3x or less. After Q2, the major components of our near-term CapEx cycle will be complete outside of the Malaysia facility, which is roughly $2 million, enabling us to focus on cash generation and deleveraging.

我想重申第四季度的信息，我們認識到保持強勁現金和流動性頭寸的重要性，並致力於恢復到 3 倍或更低的目標槓桿率。第二季度之後，我們近期資本支出週期的主要組成部分將在馬來西亞設施之外完成，該設施大約為 200 萬美元，使我們能夠專注於現金生成和去槓桿化。

We've lowered our paper inventories to our target levels and converted the previous safety stock to cash. We remain extremely tight with converted CapEx and are pushing to get converters back from underutilized accounts so we can refabricate them and redeploy them to more productive accounts. As Omar mentioned, we will be hyper-vigilant on costs for the remainder of the year to put us in the best position to get our profitability metrics back on track.

我們已將紙張庫存降低至目標水平，並將之前的安全庫存轉換為現金。我們對轉換後的資本支出仍然非常嚴格，並正在努力讓轉換器從未充分利用的賬戶中恢復過來，以便我們可以重新製造它們並將它們重新部署到生產力更高的賬戶。正如奧馬爾提到的，我們將在今年剩餘時間內對成本保持高度警惕，以使我們處於最佳位置，使我們的盈利指標重回正軌。

With that, I'll turn it back to Omar before we move on to questions.

接下來，在我們繼續提問之前，我會將其轉回給奧馬爾。

Thank you, Bill. In closing, I'm pleased with the improvements our company has made over the past few years and continue to believe our investments have put us on a sustainable long-term growth trajectory. We have a lot of work to do to get back to where we want to be financially, but I believe we are moving in the right direction. We are very well positioned to capitalize on the opportunities ahead of us from the global focus on sustainability as well as customers' elevated interest in automation.

謝謝你，比爾。最後，我對我們公司在過去幾年中取得的進步感到高興，並繼續相信我們的投資使我們走上了可持續的長期增長軌道。我們還有很多工作要做才能回到我們想要的財務目標，但我相信我們正在朝著正確的方向前進。我們處於有利位置，可以充分利用全球對可持續發展的關注以及客戶對自動化日益濃厚的興趣所帶來的機遇。

We have developed various new offerings being released over the next 12 months in void-fill, wrapping, cold-chain and automation that we believe further establish us as industry leaders in these areas. We are pleased with our organic growth opportunities and ability to scale our existing business. I firmly believe we are in the right spot and have the right team and tools to be successful. It has been a long journey to get to this point and one filled with a lot of change for the organization.

我們開發了各種新產品，並將在未來 12 個月內發布，涉及空隙填充、包裝、冷鍊和自動化領域，我們相信這些產品將進一步確立我們在這些領域的行業領導者地位。我們對我們的有機增長機會和擴大現有業務的能力感到滿意。我堅信我們處於正確的位置並擁有正確的團隊和工具來取得成功。達到這一點是一段漫長的旅程，並且對組織來說充滿了很多變化。

Our employees transitioned from being a 45-year-old private company with a certain way of operating to being a public company, which obviously brings a different level of operating requirements. We also made up for years of underinvestment in systems, processes and people, which also brought about a whole new way of operating. At this point, I feel the company is finally in a spot where we can get back to basics without large distractions and really begin to execute on the vision. We're confident in our strategy and believe we will unlock meaningful and profitable growth over the next number of years.

我們的員工從一家有45年曆史、有一定經營方式的私營公司轉型為上市公司，這顯然帶來了不同程度的經營要求。我們還彌補了多年來在系統、流程和人員方面的投資不足，這也帶來了全新的運營方式。在這一點上，我覺得公司終於可以回到基礎，沒有太多的干擾，並真正開始執行願景。我們對我們的戰略充滿信心，並相信我們將在未來幾年實現有意義的盈利增長。

With that, let's open the call up for questions. Operator?

接下來，讓我們開始提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Greg Palm from Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Craig-Hallum Capital Group 的 Greg Palm。

I guess maybe starting with a little bit more on the commentary on what you've seen recently and maybe how that relates to the guidance that you put out last quarter. I don't think you mentioned it at all. So I'm just kind of curious how you're feeling about revenue and EBITDA in light of everything that's occurred maybe over the last 4, 5, 6 weeks.

我想也許首先要對您最近看到的內容進行更多評論，以及這與您上季度發布的指導有何關係。我認為你根本沒有提到過。所以我只是有點好奇，根據過去 4、5、6 週發生的一切，您對收入和 EBITDA 有何看法。

Greg, we continue to feel good about the guidance that we put out. So there's no change there. As you know, with the cadence of our business, the first half of the year from a seasonality standpoint typically is softer than the second half of the year. Given what we've seen with destocking last year, given what we've seen in the environment, we think that pattern of seasonality is going to come back to fruition this year, again, i.e., we think '22 was an anomaly. Given that, our expectations continue to be the same vis-à-vis guidance on top line as well as EBITDA.

格雷格，我們仍然對我們發布的指導感到滿意。所以那裡沒有變化。如您所知，隨著我們業務的節奏，從季節性角度來看，上半年通常比下半年疲軟。考慮到我們去年去庫存的情況，考慮到我們在環境中看到的情況，我們認為季節性模式將在今年再次實現，也就是說，我們認為 22 年是一個反常現象。鑑於此，我們對營收和 EBITDA 的預期仍保持不變。

The end of the first quarter here was a little bit softer and the beginning of Q2 was a little bit softer. Frankly, I think it has a lot to do with the macro environment and what we're seeing with banks and what we all are reading in headlines. But it's not changing our view. Our trials, our pipeline activity, our NPI activity with new products and then what we're doing with automation, all that continues to be on track. So we continue to feel good about the rest of the year.

第一季度末的情況有點溫和，第二季度的開始也有點溫和。坦率地說，我認為這與宏觀環境、我們在銀行看到的情況以及我們在頭條新聞中看到的內容有很大關係。但這並沒有改變我們的觀點。我們的試驗、管道活動、新產品的 NPI 活動以及我們在自動化方面所做的工作，所有這些都繼續按計劃進行。因此，我們對今年剩餘時間繼續感覺良好。

Got it. If I could just maybe dig in just a little bit further under the assumption that what you've seen over the last, again, 4, 5, 6 weeks if that continues or gets worse, does that put the guidance at risk? I guess I'm just trying to get a sense of what the current guidance sort of assumes from a macro environment standpoint.

知道了。如果我可以進一步挖掘一下你在過去 4、5、6 週所看到的情況，如果這種情況持續下去或變得更糟，這是否會使指導面臨風險？我想我只是想從宏觀環境的角度了解當前指導方針的假設。

Yes. The current guidance, just to give you a sense, assumes more or less, I'm going to say, flattish volume year-over-year. And we think that's where we're going to end up. To your point, if the macro environment weakens from here and weakens materially, yes, that could have an impact. So we did not assume a robust sort of macro environment to get to our guidance. And we also, frankly speaking, in our gross margins and in our COGS, have more cushion than what's in the guidance, and we think that continues to be more favorable.

是的。我想說的是，當前的指導意見只是為了讓您有一個感覺，或多或少地假設銷量同比持平。我們認為這就是我們最終的目標。就你的觀點而言，如果宏觀環境從這裡開始減弱並出現實質性減弱，是的，這可能會產生影響。因此，我們沒有假設一個穩健的宏觀環境來得出我們的指導。坦率地說，我們的毛利率和銷貨成本也比指導中的內容有更多的緩衝，我們認為這仍然更加有利。

So if the top line is weaker, that will have an impact. We do have a cushion in gross margin that would offset some of that softness. But the overall assumption that we've made on the economy and on the world is that the world more or less is where it is right now. We did not assume any robust recovery. We did not assume further weakening from here. If we're going to start seeing more banks have issues, more consumers have issues, elevated unemployment, and if the world really takes a step back, of course, that will impact us because that's not our base case assumption. I don't know if that gives you a sense of sort of our thinking on the guidance.

因此，如果頂線較弱，就會產生影響。我們的毛利率確實有緩衝，可以抵消部分疲軟的影響。但我們對經濟和世界做出的總體假設是，世界或多或少就是現在的樣子。我們沒有假設任何強勁的複蘇。我們並未假設此後會進一步走軟。如果我們開始看到更多的銀行出現問題，更多的消費者出現問題，失業率上升，如果世界真的後退一步，當然，這將會影響我們，因為這不是我們的基本假設。我不知道這是否能讓您了解我們對指南的想法。

Your next question comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi of Baird.

您的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

First off, following up on the last question. Relative to your previous guidance construct, is it fair to say that maybe the volumes outlook is a little bit murkier? Maybe it's a little bit lower than you initially forecast, but that's going to be offset by just the changed input cost environment. Is that sort of the right way to think about it?

首先，跟進最後一個問題。相對於您之前的指導結構，可以公平地說，銷量前景可能有點模糊嗎？也許它比您最初預測的要低一點，但這將被改變的投入成本環境所抵消。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

I think that's a fair way to think about it. I think, certainly, the environment, it's not great from a volume standpoint. And of course, as I said earlier, if it weakens from here, that could have an impact on us. We feel a lot better about input costs. We feel a lot better about what we're seeing sort of from a COGS standpoint. And frankly, given all the investments we've made, Ghansham, we feel a lot better about our execution ability and our ability to focus.

我認為這是一個公平的思考方式。我認為，當然，從數量的角度來看，環境並不是很好。當然，正如我之前所說，如果它從這裡開始減弱，可能會對我們產生影響。我們對投入成本感覺好多了。從銷貨成本的角度來看，我們對所看到的情況感覺好多了。坦率地說，Ghansham，考慮到我們所做的所有投資，我們對我們的執行能力和專注能力感覺好多了。

I mean, we're a company that has 850 employees. So in the last year dealing with the macro environment, dealing with putting in new technology systems and switching the way we operate, that was a lot. Right now, we don't have to deal with these issues. We're executing in a new environment with state-of-the-art technology. We're more focused on being sharper in our execution, which I think will help. So this gives us some confidence on achieving our numbers on the top line and the volume trends.

我的意思是，我們是一家擁有 850 名員工的公司。所以去年處理宏觀環境，處理新技術系統的引入以及改變我們的運營方式，這很多。現在，我們不必處理這些問題。我們正在一個擁有最先進技術的新環境中執行。我們更專注於提高執行力，我認為這會有所幫助。因此，這讓我們對實現營收數字和銷量趨勢充滿信心。

On the one hand, yes, the macro environment is a challenge. On the other hand, I will tell you, our trial activity, our pipeline is super robust. It's pretty strong globally, and we have a number of dialogues in today's environment with advanced large accounts that are talking about meaningful switches from plastic to paper. So all that, I think, could offset part of the macro weakness, if you will. And again, when you put it all together, we did not assume robust volume trends.

一方面，宏觀環境確實是一個挑戰。另一方面，我會告訴你，我們的試驗活動、我們的管道非常強大。它在全球範圍內相當強大，在當今的環境下，我們與先進的大型客戶進行了多次對話，討論從塑料到紙張的有意義的轉變。因此，我認為，如果你願意的話，所有這些都可以抵消部分宏觀疲軟。再說一次，當你把所有這些放在一起時，我們並沒有假設強勁的成交量趨勢。

Okay. Great. And then in terms of just the operating environment at current, I mean, clearly, everybody is sort of thinking it across the consumer supply chain, industrial supply chain, et cetera. And I would assume that there's going to be more of a focus on costs just like you're doing at your level. Is mix an issue to keep in mind for the future as it relates to your customers' decisions and maybe trading down a little bit just to kind of keep costs in check? Or is that not really a risk factor for you?

好的。偉大的。就目前的運營環境而言，我的意思是，顯然，每個人都在考慮整個消費者供應鏈、工業供應鍊等。我認為，就像您在您的級別上所做的那樣，將會更多地關注成本。混合是否是一個需要在未來牢記的問題，因為它關係到客戶的決策，也許只是為了控製成本而稍微降低一些？或者這對您來說並不是真正的風險因素？

Honestly, costs and price has been an issue for a while, for a number of quarters. And we're seeing a lot of customers focus on that. And part of what we're doing with a lot of customers is making sure we're very articulate and specific about where we're helping them in terms of speed, reliability, total cost of ownership to make sure that we are helping them with their own bottom line. So that trend continues given the inflationary environment.

老實說，成本和價格一直是一個問題，持續了好幾個季度。我們看到很多客戶都關注這一點。我們與許多客戶一起做的部分工作是確保我們非常清楚和具體地說明我們在速度、可靠性、總體擁有成本方面為他們提供的幫助，以確保我們在以下方面為他們提供幫助：他們自己的底線。因此，考慮到通脹環境，這一趨勢仍在繼續。

We are seeing, in some cases, with mix, people trading down a little bit. Is it a big driver right now? Not really. I think for us, the biggest driver is just articulating how we're helping these customers from an efficiency, speed and total cost of ownership, and that's typically how we win. So I'm not expecting drastic moves on mix that could go against us. I do expect as we have more and more dialogue with some of these large customers that are in our pipeline about the switch from plastic to paper that they're going to be very, very price sensitive in this environment. So they want sustainability, Ghansham, but they want to make sure it's not coming at a premium for them.

我們看到，在某些情況下，人們的交易量有所下降。現在是大司機嗎？並不真地。我認為對我們來說，最大的驅動力就是闡明我們如何從效率、速度和總擁有成本方面幫助這些客戶，這通常就是我們獲勝的方式。因此，我預計混合方面的重大舉措不會對我們不利。我確實預計，隨著我們與一些正在籌備中的大客戶就從塑料到紙張的轉變進行越來越多的對話，他們在這種環境下將對價格非常非常敏感。所以他們想要可持續發展，Ghansham，但他們想確保這不會對他們造成溢價。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson of Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森。

So I guess, the first question is maybe kind of continuing on something Ghansham was asking about. So I think about the installed base and it actually -- you did see some declines in the installed base on the cushioning side sequentially in the quarter. How do we think about you're being more proactive in pulling machines from existing customers and better utilizing kind of the installed base of machines that you have out there or redeploying those to limit incremental capital spend in the near term?

所以我想，第一個問題可能是繼續 Ghansham 所問的問題。因此，我考慮了安裝基礎，實際上，您確實看到本季度緩衝方面的安裝基礎出現了一些下降。我們如何看待您是否更主動地從現有客戶那裡撤走機器，並更好地利用現有的機器安裝基礎或重新部署這些機器以限制近期增量資本支出？

Sure. I'll start, and then I'll have Bill chime in, Adam. So as you know, in the past 12, 14 months, we've continued to invest in CapEx and in converters and equipment and did not get the commensurate sort of volume help. Today, and sort of starting really at the beginning of this year, we've been laser-focused on just optimizing the fleet that we have. So in many cases, we see opportunities to move certain pieces of equipment from one account to another, where we think it could help the volume down the road.

當然。我先開始，然後比爾插話，亞當。如您所知，在過去 12、14 個月中，我們繼續投資於資本支出以及轉換器和設備，但沒有獲得相應的數量幫助。今天，從今年年初開始，我們一直專注於優化我們擁有的機隊。因此，在許多情況下，我們看到了將某些設備從一個帳戶轉移到另一個帳戶的機會，我們認為這有助於增加銷量。

Also, we and our customers are learning in this environment that may be their new normal for the near term is lower than what we had expected a year ago or 6 months ago. So we're adjusting accordingly. So we believe there continues to be an opportunity from here to drive our growth without just 100% incrementally investing in new CapEx and adding new converters. So part of the thing that you're seeing from us is optimizing the existing fleet.

此外，我們和我們的客戶在這種環境下了解到，他們近期的新常態可能低於我們一年前或六個月前的預期。所以我們正在做出相應的調整。因此，我們相信，這裡仍然有機會推動我們的增長，而無需 100% 增量投資新的資本支出並添加新的轉換器。因此，您從我們身上看到的部分內容是優化現有機隊。

The other part that we're focused on is, as I mentioned, with new products, we're investing in new products, and that will always drive increasing the fleet. So you will see, as we launch new products that maybe our fleet of equipment is increasing a little bit. But the existing footprint that we have with existing products, there's still some room to optimize to drive the top line. Bill?

正如我所提到的，我們關注的另一部分是，對於新產品，我們正在投資新產品，這將始終推動機隊的增加。所以你會看到，當我們推出新產品時，我們的設備數量可能會有所增加。但就我們現有產品的現有足跡而言，仍有一些優化空間以推動收入增長。賬單？

Yes. I would just say from a gross shipments basis, right, so placing machines at new accounts and new account activity, those were actually in line with where we were in Q1 of '22. So from a gross shipments basis, still very solid activity. As Omar mentioned, we have been making a concerted effort to optimize the fleet, looking at lower-margin business and getting some of that equipment back.

是的。我只想說，從總出貨量來看，對吧，因此將機器放置在新帳戶和新帳戶活動中，這些實際上與我們在 22 年第一季度的情況一致。因此，從總出貨量來看，活動仍然非常強勁。正如奧馬爾提到的，我們一直在齊心協力優化機隊，關注利潤率較低的業務並收回部分設備。

You brought up cushioning. Cushioning is one area actually where we've been trying to get machines back because there's actually really, really solid demand in the industrial sector seeing how competitive we are from a pricing standpoint. So trying to get some of those machines back, refabricate those and get those deployed out to the field is a big effort of ours. So I would expect that to pick back up in the future quarters.

你提到了緩衝。緩衝實際上是我們一直在努力恢復機器的一個領域，因為工業領域實際上有非常非常穩定的需求，從定價的角度來看我們有多麼有競爭力。因此，試圖收回其中一些機器、重新製造它們並將它們部署到現場是我們的一項巨大努力。因此，我預計這一情況將在未來幾個季度回升。

Okay. No, that's really helpful. So -- and if I think about just for the year, where -- what should total CapEx be, both converter and some of the facility investments you're making? And along the same lines, how should we think about cash operating expenses for 2023 at this point?

好的。不，這真的很有幫助。那麼，如果我只考慮今年的總資本支出應該是多少，包括轉換器和您正在進行的一些設施投資？同樣，此時我們應該如何考慮 2023 年的現金運營支出？

Sure. So CapEx for the year, we had said at the beginning of the year, that will be about $55 million all in CapEx. I think just given what we're seeing in some of the discretionary spend, we'll be taking that down a little bit, probably close to $50 million. If you think about the split between the converter spend, that's going to be $25 million to $30 million of converters. Maybe we can do a little bit better than that, manage tighter, do better job of redeploying existing equipment. And then on the real estate investment front, that was running around $25 million.

當然。因此，我們在年初曾說過，今年的資本支出約為 5500 萬美元。我認為，考慮到我們在一些可自由支配支出中看到的情況，我們會稍微減少一點，可能接近 5000 萬美元。如果考慮一下轉換器支出之間的分配，轉換器支出將達到 2500 萬美元至 3000 萬美元。也許我們可以做得更好一點，管理更嚴格，更好地重新部署現有設備。然後在房地產投資方面，投資金額約為 2500 萬美元。

So the majority of those expenses related to the Eygelshoven facility, which opened up in April, that we're operating currently and then the Shelton facility. So most of that will be complete by the end of Q2.

因此，這些費用大部分與我們目前正在運營的 4 月份啟用的 Eygelshoven 設施有關，然後是謝爾頓設施。因此，大部分工作將在第二季度末完成。

Again, on the operating expense question. I think you were asking about kind of cash operating from a G&A perspective, that should be running around 25% of sales.

再次，關於運營費用問題。我認為您是從 G&A 的角度詢問現金運營的情況，現金運營應該佔銷售額的 25% 左右。

(Operator Instructions) A follow-up question from the line of Greg Palm of Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

（操作員說明）來自 Craig-Hallum Capital Group 的 Greg Palm 的後續問題。

Omar, I wanted to just follow up on the commentary about the progress you're seeing in some of these plastic-only accounts. But can you just maybe give us a sense of where we're at, what gives you the confidence that some of these might pivot to paper? Is it going to be 100%? Any -- I don't know if you can quantify anything, but I just thought that commentary was especially interesting.

奧馬爾，我想跟進您在一些純塑料帳戶中看到的進展的評論。但是您能否讓我們了解一下我們目前的處境，是什麼讓您有信心其中一些可能會轉向紙質文件？會是100%嗎？任何 - 我不知道你是否可以量化任何東西，但我只是認為評論特別有趣。

Yes. I think, Greg, look, last year, like any other year, we were chasing a number of these accounts. And of course, we were pushing the case for our products over plastics. And I would say we were doing a bunch of meetings, a bunch of discussions, but not exactly trials. What has changed this year is with a number of these accounts, our equipment is in their facilities. It's being tried out. They are buying obviously small amounts from us right now to consume, pay for that equipment.

是的。我想，格雷格，你看，去年，和其他任何一年一樣，我們都在追逐一些這樣的賬戶。當然，我們正在推動我們的產品勝過塑料。我想說的是，我們舉行了很多會議，進行了很多討論，但不完全是試驗。今年發生的變化是，對於其中一些客戶來說，我們的設備位於他們的設施中。正在試用中。他們現在從我們這裡購買的數量顯然很少，用於消費、支付設備費用。

We like sort of feedback that we're hearing about these trials. In today's environment, and I've said this before, trials take a little bit longer than we like, given the soft macro environment, so trials might be a little bit prolonged. However, the feedback that we continue to see on the ground with a number of these important accounts is they like the product. They are interested in the switch. I would not say the switch is going to be 100%. I think many of these accounts are trying to reduce plastic footprint and move to other substrates, we're the beneficiary of that. But that's incremental volume. And my expectation, given how we're executing, given what I'm seeing in the size of the pipeline and then the feedback on the trials themselves, Greg, is that we will win our fair share, and that would be driving incremental volume.

我們喜歡聽到有關這些試驗的反饋。在今天的環境下，我之前已經說過，考慮到軟宏觀環境，試驗的時間比我們希望的要長一些，因此試驗可能會延長一些。然而，我們繼續從許多重要客戶那裡看到的反饋是他們喜歡該產品。他們對開關很感興趣。我不會說轉換將是 100%。我認為其中許多帳戶都在嘗試減少塑料足跡並轉向其他基材，我們是其中的受益者。但這是增量。考慮到我們的執行方式，考慮到我所看到的管道規模以及試驗本身的反饋，格雷格，我們將贏得公平的份額，這將推動增​​量。

Now again, a lot of these large accounts because they may take longer, if what I'm saying will happen, you will see that in the second half of the year more than the first half of the year. But in the first half of the year, we have placed the equipment. We are in these warehouses and facilities, and they are using our product and trialing it. So this is why I feel pretty good about where we're headed. And this is materially different than last year where we were not having the trials in action with some of these large accounts. It was more conversation. Now we're seeing some action. And hopefully, that action will translate into business activity for us in the second half of this year.

現在，很多這樣的大帳戶，因為它們可能需要更長的時間，如果我所說的發生，你會看到下半年比上半年更多。但是上半年我們已經把設備安置好了。我們在這些倉庫和設施中，他們正在使用我們的產品並進行試用。這就是為什麼我對我們的發展方向感到非常滿意。這與去年有很大不同，去年我們沒有對其中一些大型賬戶進行試驗。這是更多的談話。現在我們看到了一些行動。希望這一行動能夠轉化為我們今年下半年的業務活動。

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now turn the call over to Bill for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉給比爾做總結髮言。

Thank you. And thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to speaking again following Q2.

謝謝。感謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待在第二季度之後再次發言。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。