Ranpak Holdings Corp (PACK) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Debre, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Ranpak fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。我叫德布雷，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Ranpak 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Sara Horvath, General Counsel. Please go head.

現在，我想將會議交給總法律顧問 Sara Horvath。請繼續。

Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that we will discuss forward-looking statements as defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those forward-looking statements as a result of various factors including those discussed in our press release and the risk factors identified in our Form 10-K and our other filings filed with the SEC.

謝謝大家，下午好。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們將討論 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》定義的前瞻性陳述。由於各種因素，包括我們在新聞稿中討論的因素以及我們的 10-K 表和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中確定的風險因素，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異。

Some of the statements and responses to your questions in this conference call may include forward-looking statements that are subject to future events and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from these statements.

本次電話會議中的一些陳述和對您的問題的答覆可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受未來事件和不確定因素的影響，可能導致我們的實際結果與這些陳述有重大差異。

Ranpak assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, all of which speak to the company only as of today. The earnings release we issued this afternoon and the presentation for today's call are posted on the Investor Relations section of our website.

Ranpak 不承擔任何義務，也不打算更新任何此類前瞻性聲明。您不應過度依賴這些前瞻性陳述，所有這些陳述僅代表本公司截至今天的情況。我們今天下午發布的收益報告和今天的電話會議簡報已發佈在我們網站的投資者關係部分。

A copy of the release has been included in the Form 8-K that we submitted to the SEC before this call. We will also make a replay of this conference call available via webcast on the company website. For financial information that is presented on a non-GAAP basis, we have included reconciliations to the comparable GAAP information. Please refer to the table and slide presentation accompanying today's earnings release. Lastly, we'll be filing our 10-K with the SEC for the period ending December 31, 2023. The 10-K will be available through the SEC or on the Investor Relations section of our website.

該發布的副本已包含在我們在本次電話會議之前提交給美國證券交易委員會的 8-K 表中。我們也將透過公司網站的網路直播提供本次電話會議的重播。對於以非 GAAP 基礎呈現的財務訊息，我們已納入與可比較 GAAP 資訊的對帳。請參閱今天的收益報告中附帶的表格和幻燈片簡報。最後，我們將向美國證券交易委員會提交截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 報表。10-K 表格可透過美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 或我們網站的投資者關係部分取得。

With me today, I have Omar Asali, our Chairman and CEO; and Bill Drew, our CFO. Omar will summarize our fourth quarter results, provide an update on our growth strategies and as to our outlook for 2024. Bill will provide additional detail on our financial results before we open up the call for questions.

今天和我一起的還有我們的董事長兼執行長 Omar Asali；以及我們的財務長比爾·德魯（Bill Drew）。奧馬爾將總結我們第四季度的業績，並提供我們的成長策略更新以及我們對 2024 年的展望。在我們開始提問之前，比爾將提供有關我們財務表現的更多詳細資訊。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Omar.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給奧馬爾。

Thank you, Sara, and good day, everyone. Thank you all for joining our call. We finished 2023 on a positive note as we build on the momentum from the third quarter and delivered our best quarter of the year. We saw continued general improvement in the operating environment in Europe and a more pronounced holiday season in North America compared to prior year.

謝謝你，薩拉，大家好。感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。我們以積極的態度結束了 2023 年，因為我們延續了第三季度的勢頭並取得了今年最好的一個季度。與去年同期相比，我們看到歐洲的經營環境持續整體改善，北美的假期季節也更加明顯。

Overall, the e-commerce, discretionary goods market and manufacturing sectors remained subdued. While we are starting to see general improvement across many of our end users and are encouraged by the seasonal uptick, more in line with historical patterns in the fourth quarter.

整體而言，電子商務、非必需品市場和製造業領域依然低迷。雖然我們開始看到許多最終用戶的普遍改善，並受到季節性上漲的鼓舞，但這更符合第四季度的歷史模式。

Consolidated net revenue on a constant currency basis increased 10%, driven by volume growth in our different regions as we saw improved order activity among larger e-commerce customers in the US, and generally improving conditions in Europe. The volume improvement seen in Q3 and Q4 helped drive 2023 full-year net revenue up 1% on a constant currency basis, a welcome recovery from a slower start of the year.

以固定匯率計算的綜合淨收入成長了 10%，這得益於我們不同地區的銷售成長，因為我們看到美國大型電子商務客戶的訂單活動有所改善，並且歐洲的情況普遍改善。第三季和第四季的銷售改善推動 2023 年全年淨收入按固定匯率計算成長 1%，這與年初的緩慢成長相比是一個可喜的復甦。

Europe and APAC, finished on a strong note, up 12% on a constant currency basis, driven by 15% volume growth as ordering patterns continue to normalize and general sentiment in the region was stable. The improvement was broad-based as all PPS categories in the region were up year-over-year. Destocking activity is behind us and in many cases, distributors and end customers are working to keep as little inventory on hand as possible.

歐洲和亞太地區表現強勁，以固定匯率計算上漲 12%，其中，由於訂購模式繼續正常化且該地區整體情緒穩定，銷量增長 15%。該地區所有 PPS 類別均同比增長，因此改善是廣泛的。去庫存活動已經過去，在許多情況下，分銷商和最終客戶都在努力盡可能減少庫存。

Our North America business also experienced an uptick to finish the year, with sales up 8%, driven by improved volumes and contribution from automation sales. Full year results were up 2% in North America, driven by a larger contribution from automation and improved hotel performance, offset somewhat by a sluggish wrapping and cushioning environment.

我們的北美業務在年底也經歷了上升趨勢，銷售額成長了 8%，這得益於銷量的成長和自動化銷售的貢獻。北美地區全年業績成長 2%，這得益於自動化業務貢獻的增加以及飯店業績的提升，但受到包裝和緩衝市場低迷的影響。

Adjusted EBITDA of $24.4 million was up $11.5 million or 89% in constant currency terms year-over-year and resulted in a margin of 26%. The increase in adjusted EBITDA was due to higher sales volumes compared to a year ago, significant improvement in input costs and better absorption of our fixed G&A. For the year adjusted EBITDA increased 14.5%, to $76.5 million.

調整後 EBITDA 為 2,440 萬美元，以固定匯率計算比去年同期增加 1,150 萬美元或 89%，利潤率為 26%。調整後 EBITDA 的成長是由於銷售量較上年同期增加、投入成本顯著改善以及固定 G&A 吸收更好。全年調整後 EBITDA 成長 14.5%，達到 7,650 萬美元。

Overall, it was a quarter that turned out better than expected and helps us to finish a challenging year on a positive note. And generally speaking, we entered 2024 in a better operating environment than we experienced in 2023. Discretionary goods remained soft. While we are now two years into absorbing the pull forward in demand that impacted performance in '22 and '23.

總體而言，本季的表現優於預期，並幫助我們以積極的態度結束充滿挑戰的一年。整體而言，我們進入 2024 年的營運環境比 2023 年要好。非必需品依然疲軟。而我們現在花了兩年的時間來吸收影響22年和23年業績的需求提前拉動。

Strategic account activity in North America is robust, with key players announcing their commitment to eliminating plastic in their fulfillment centers over the next few years. We also have made substantial inroads with our automation business with key accounts that I think solidifies our position as a true automation player. Our distributors and end users are in tight inventory positions and are likely conservative in their positioning.

北美的策略帳戶活動十分活躍，主要參與者宣布承諾在未來幾年內在其配送中心消除塑膠。我們的自動化業務也透過大客戶取得了實質的進展，我認為這鞏固了我們作為真正的自動化參與者的地位。我們的經銷商和最終用戶的庫存緊張，而且他們的定位可能比較保守。

We continue to monitor the energy environment in Europe. It is far improved from a pricing perspective from a year ago. As such, nat gas is at EUR27 per megawatt, down from EUR300 at the peak and EUR80 at the start of 2023. This has led to a stable paper input cost environment in the region and improved overall sentiment. North America paper pricing also remained stable as we enter into 2024, having clawed back the majority of our gross margin profile that we had sacrificed in '22.

我們持續監控歐洲的能源環境。從定價角度來看，與一年前相比有了很大的改善。因此，天然氣價格為每兆瓦 27 歐元，低於高峰時的 300 歐元和 2023 年初的 80 歐元。這使得該地區的紙張投入成本環境穩定，並改善了整體情緒。進入 2024 年，北美紙張價格也保持穩定，收回了我們在 2022 年犧牲的大部分毛利率。

The regulatory environment continues to position us with a secular tailwind as extended producer responsibility regulation has been enacted or proposed in many states, including California, Colorado, main Oregon, Maryland, New Jersey, Washington and Connecticut.

由於加州、科羅拉多州、俄勒岡州、馬裡蘭州、新澤西州、華盛頓州和康乃狄克州等許多州已經頒布或提議實施擴大生產者責任條例，監管環境繼續為我們帶來長期的順風。

These laws have been in place in Europe for years, but are just gaining traction in the US. We will take you through our guidance for 2024 after Bill's remarks. But to summarize, we are focused on accelerating top line growth this year, double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth and working with the investments we have made to generate cash and deal [offer].

這些法律在歐洲已實施多年，但在美國才剛開始受到關注。在比爾發表演說之後，我們將向您介紹我們對 2024 年的指導。總而言之，我們今年的重點是加速營收成長，實現兩位數的調整後 EBITDA 成長，並利用我們所做的投資來創造現金和交易[提供]。

Now here's Bill with more info on the quarter.

現在請比爾來提供有關本季的更多資訊。

Thank you, Omar. In the deck, you'll see a summary of some of our key performance indicators. We'll also be filing our 10-K, which provides further information on the impact to operating results. Machine placement continued its increase, up 1.5% year-over-year to over [141,200] machines globally. Cushioning systems declined 1.4% void-fill installed systems grew 2.6% and wrapping grew 2.3% year-over-year.

謝謝你，奧馬爾。在本簡報中，您將看到我們的一些關鍵績效指標的摘要。我們還將提交 10-K 報告，其中提供了有關對經營業績影響的更多資訊。機器安裝量持續增加，與去年同期相比成長 1.5%，全球機器安裝量超過 [141,200] 台。緩衝系統下降了 1.4%，填充安裝系統增加了 2.6%，包裝系統增加了 2.3%。

We continue our fleet optimization efforts to identify opportunities to move less productive converters in the field up to higher utilization locations and furthered our efforts to refurbish, and we fabricate older converters for redeployment to save on CapEx.

我們繼續努力優化設備群，尋找機會將現場生產率較低的轉換器轉移到利用率更高的位置，並進一步加大翻新力度，製造較舊的轉換器以供重新部署，以節省資本支出。

Overall, net revenue for the company in the fourth quarter increased 10% year-over-year to $93.9 million on a constant currency basis, driven by volume growth in all regions and increased automation sales. Bringing full year results up 1% on a constant currency basis.

整體而言，受各地區銷售成長和自動化銷售額成長的推動，該公司第四季淨收入按固定匯率計算年增 10% 至 9,390 萬美元。以固定匯率計算，全年業績成長 1%。

For the quarter, in Europe and APAC reporting division nine revenue increased 12% on a constant currency basis. Better second half drove net revenue on a constant currency basis to finish up 1% for the year in the region, driven by volume growth and increased contribution from automation offset somewhat by pricing give-back due to raw material input cost relief after achieving our targeted margin profile.

本季度，歐洲和亞太區第九報告分部的營收以固定匯率計算成長了 12%。下半年表現較好，推動該地區按固定匯率計算的淨收入全年增長 1%，這得益於銷量增長和自動化貢獻增加，但在實現我們的目標利潤率後，原材料投入成本減輕導致的價格回饋在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。

North America also finished on a positive note, driven by better volumes and increased contributions from automation. Net revenue for the quarter was up 8%, which brought the full-year results in the region to growth of 2%. We are encouraged by what we see in the region and are looking forward to strategic account activity driving volume acceleration as the year progresses.

受銷量增加和自動化貢獻增加的推動，北美地區也取得了積極的成績。本季淨收入成長 8%，帶動該地區全年業績成長 2%。我們對該地區的業績感到鼓舞，並期待隨著時間的推移，策略帳戶活動能夠推動銷售加速成長。

Reported gross margins of 37.7% for the quarter, improved more than 950 basis points versus the prior year. The input cost peaked and volumes were lower, resulting in an increase in gross profit on a constant currency basis of $11.5 million or 48% year-over-year.

本季毛利率為 37.7%，較上年同期提高 950 個基點以上。投入成本達到峰值，而產量較低，導致以固定匯率計算的毛利年增 1,150 萬美元，增幅為 48%。

Gross margins in the Europe and APAC reporting unit stayed flat with the third quarter at 39%, while North America was approximately 35.5%, although we do expect to have some upside going forward in North America as additional volumes flow through. As we enter 2024 paper pricing has stabilized, although we have seen some market participants publicly vocal about their desire to raise price.

歐洲和亞太地區報告部門的毛利率與第三季持平，為 39%，而北美的毛利率約為 35.5%，儘管我們預計隨著額外銷量的流入，北美的毛利率未來會有一些上升空間。隨著我們進入 2024 年，紙張價格已經穩定下來，儘管我們看到一些市場參與者公開表達了提高價格的願望。

SG&A excluding RSU expense with in line with the previous two quarters at $26.7 million on a constant currency basis. Controlling our spend and leveraging our G&A investments are a top priority. We expect that as the volume environment improves, we will better absorb our overhead as you've seen in the fourth quarter, as well as higher volume quarters in the past. Headcount was roughly flat year-over-year. And on the personnel front, we have over 140 people dedicated to automation currently, obviously resulting in a substantial drag on our profitability profile. As that business scales, we expect to have a much improved financial profile with our adjusted EBITDA margins on a consolidated basis, getting back to the mid to high 20% area overall.

銷售、一般及行政開支（不含 RSU 費用）以固定匯率計算與前兩季持平，為 2,670 萬美元。控制我們的支出和利用我們的一般及行政開支投資是我們的首要任務。我們預計，隨著銷售環境的改善，我們將更好地吸收我們的管理費用，就像您在第四季度以及過去銷售量較高的幾個季度所看到的那樣。員工人數與去年同期基本持平。在人員方面，我們目前有超過 140 人致力於自動化，這顯然對我們的獲利狀況造成了很大拖累。隨著業務規模的擴大，我們預計財務狀況將大幅改善，合併後調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將整體回到 20% 的中高水準。

As a result of the improved sales volumes and improved gross profit in the fourth quarter. Adjusted EBITDA improved 89% in the quarter to $24.4 million on a constant currency basis or 26% adjusted EBITDA margin. This brings the full year's results to up 14.5% to $76.5 million on a constant currency basis, implying a 21.9% adjusted EBITDA margin for the year.

由於第四季銷售量和毛利的提高。以固定匯率計算，調整後 EBITDA 本季成長了 89%，達到 2,440 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 26%。以固定匯率計算，這使得全年業績上漲 14.5% 至 7,650 萬美元，意味著全年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 21.9%。

Moving to the balance sheet liquidity, we completed 2023 with a strong liquidity position, including a cash balance of $62 million and no drawings on our revolving credit facility. Bringing our reported net leverage to 4.6 times on an LTM basis or 5.0 times according to the definition of adjusted EBITDA in our credit agreement. A recent peak for leverage was 5.7 times in the June quarter, and our short-term target was to get below five turns by year end.

轉向資產負債表流動性，我們在 2023 年結束時擁有強大的流動性狀況，包括 6200 萬美元的現金餘額，並且沒有使用循環信貸額度提取資金。根據我們信用協議中調整後 EBITDA 的定義，將我們報告的淨槓桿率提高到 LTM 基礎上的 4.6 倍或 5.0 倍。槓桿率近期高峰為 6 月季度的 5.7 倍，我們的短期目標是到年底將槓桿率降至 5 倍以下。

We are pleased to make progress, but our ultimate goal remains to return to a leverage ratio of three turns or less. 2024 is a year where we expect to continue to grow our adjusted EBITDA and generate cash to delever. Major CapEx cycle of investing in digital and physical infrastructure is largely complete. The final remaining $1.5 million from Malaysia to be funded in 2024.

我們很高興取得進展，但我們的最終目標仍然是回到三倍或更低的槓桿率。 2024 年是我們預計繼續增加調整後 EBITDA 並產生現金以去槓桿的一年。投資數位和實體基礎設施的主要資本支出週期已基本完成。馬來西亞剩餘的 150 萬美元將於 2024 年撥付。

With that, I'll turn it to Omar.

說完這些，我就把話題轉給了奧馬爾。

Thanks, Bill. This year was a pivot year, and I'm happy to report that we took critical steps required to position us well in 2024 and to scale Ranpak. In '23, we successfully clawed back the majority of our gross margin profile after investing in our customer relationships during the significant input cost inflation of '22. We also made meaningful inroads with key strategic accounts in North America and PPS, which will show up beginning in the second quarter of this year.

謝謝，比爾。今年是關鍵的一年，我很高興地報告，我們採取了必要的關鍵步驟，為我們在 2024 年取得良好定位並擴大 Ranpak 規模做好準備。23年，我們在22年投入成本大幅上漲期間投資於客戶關係，從而成功收回了大部分毛利率。我們也與北美和 PPS 的關鍵策略客戶取得了重大進展，這些進展將於今年第二季開始顯現。

I believe automation has hit the commercial inflection point we have been working towards as we have won key mandates for our auto fill and credit products that solidify ramp back as a top-tier automation player. We have completed the expansion of our production capabilities to be able to serve over $100 million annually in revenue.

我相信自動化已經達到了我們一直在努力實現的商業轉折點，因為我們已經贏得了自動填充和信貸產品的關鍵授權，鞏固了我們作為頂級自動化參與者的地位。我們已經完成了生產能力的擴展，每年能夠提供超過 1 億美元的收入。

We believe these signature wins will serve as a baseline for automation growth over the next few years and also be a strong signal to the market of the quality and robustness of our solutions. This is what we have been building towards in automation and are excited to be at a point where we believe the step change in the top line is here.

我們相信，這些標誌性的勝利將成為未來幾年自動化成長的基準，也是向市場發出強烈訊號，證明我們解決方案的品質和穩健性。這就是我們在自動化領域一直在努力的方向，我們很高興看到我們達到了頂線變革的階段。

Regarding guidance for the year. On a constant currency basis, we're anticipating revenues of $370 million to $390 million, reflecting top line growth in the area of 6% to 12% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 5% to 16%, implying a range of $80 million to $89 million. Our top line growth for the year reflects our expectations of a slow but continuing return to a more normal operating environment as e-commerce buying patterns normalize and industrial activity remains somewhat pressured.

關於年度指導。以固定匯率計算，我們預期營收為 3.7 億至 3.9 億美元，反映營收成長在 6% 至 12% 之間，調整後 EBITDA 成長在 5% 至 16% 之間，意味著營收範圍在 8,000 萬至 8,900 萬美元之間。我們今年的營收成長反映了我們的預期，隨著電子商務購買模式的正常化和工業活動仍然面臨一定壓力，營運環境將緩慢但持續地恢復正常。

We expect to achieve volume growth in PPS building on the momentum that started in the second half of the year and automation revenue to be up more than 50%. Our growth in adjusted EBITDA of 5% to 16% reflects the contributions from the expected top line increase and steady margin profile.

我們預計，PPS 的銷售將藉助下半年的勢頭實現成長，自動化收入將成長 50% 以上。我們的調整後 EBITDA 成長 5% 至 16%，反映了預期營收成長和穩定利潤率的貢獻。

We expect that capital expenditures will step down as we exit our major investment cycle and be in the area of [$35 million], enabling us to focus on cash generation and de-leveraging. Generally speaking, we believe this guidance reflects a level of conservatism and continued somewhat challenging near-term backdrop.

我們預計，隨著我們退出主要投資週期，資本支出將會下降至 3500 萬美元左右，這使我們能夠專注於創造現金和去槓桿。總體而言，我們認為該指引反映了一定程度的保守主義和持續的、具有一定挑戰性的短期背景。

Our bottom-up fundamental view is giving us more optimism. Hence, we believe our guidance has some upside depending on the timing and speed with which key strategic accounts ramp up their plastics to paper shift. '24 is an inflection year for Ranpak in general and for automation in particular, I feel better about our company now than I have at any point in the past two years, we have solid momentum in the business with potential step-change opportunities in PBS and automation about to began.

自下而上的基本觀點給予我們更多的樂觀。因此，我們認為，我們的指引具有一定的上行空間，取決於關鍵策略客戶加快塑膠轉變為紙張的時間和速度。 '24 年對 Ranpak 來說是一個轉折年，對於自動化來說尤其如此，我現在對我們公司的感覺比過去兩年中的任何時候都要好，我們的業務發展勢頭強勁，PBS 和自動化領域的潛在階躍變革機會即將開始。

We have seen some of the largest e-commerce players publicly announced this year. They have begun a multiyear transition to eliminate plastic delivery packaging and replace it with paper. We are part of that switch. Industrial Automation is a mega [field] in an environment where labor costs and other rising inputs, pressure margins.

我們看到今年一些最大的電子商務公司公開宣布了其新消息。他們已經開始了一項為期多年的轉型，以消除塑膠快遞包裝並用紙質包裝取代。我們是這轉變的一部分。在勞動成本和其他投入不斷上升、利潤受到壓力的環境下，工業自動化是一個龐大的領域。

Companies are willing to spend on projects that deliver an attractive ROI. And we believe our underlying solution portfolio is able to deliver what customers need. Specifically in the form of reduced labor costs, reduced logistics costs and lower waste. We have the solutions people and facilities to scale this business and look to nearly double our sales and automation in '24. The input cost environment remains pretty balanced. North America added kraft paper capacity in '23 and pricing has stabilized in recent months.

公司願意投資那些能帶來可觀投資報酬率的項目。我們相信，我們的基礎解決方案組合能夠滿足客戶的需求。具體表現為降低勞動成本、降低物流成本和減少浪費。我們擁有解決方案人員和設施來擴展這項業務，並希望在'24年將我們的銷售額和自動化程度提高近一倍。投入成本環境仍相當平衡。北美在23年增加了牛皮紙產能，近幾個月價格已經趨於穩定。

Additional volumes should help us drive efficiencies and better absorb our overhead in '24, especially as strategic account activity really kicks in the second half of the year. In Europe, the energy markets have been favorable and we were able to emerge from winter without a large spike, an excessive draw on reserves. We believe that positions us well in 2024 to maintain our margin profile in Europe and Asia Pacific.

額外的交易量應該有助於我們提高效率，更好地吸收我們24年的管理費用，特別是當策略帳戶活動在下半年真正啟動時。在歐洲，能源市場表現良好，我們能夠順利度過冬季，不會出現大幅上漲或過度消耗儲備的情況。我們相信，這將使我們在 2024 年保持在歐洲和亞太地區的利潤率。

Expanding our presence in Asia Pacific is a key milestone for us this year, as we will go live with our Malaysian production facility this summer. APAC is currently served out of Europe, which adds significant cost and lead time to getting product to our end users. This facility will enable us to take meaningful freight time and cost out.

擴大我們在亞太地區的業務是我們今年的一個重要里程碑，因為我們的馬來西亞生產設施將於今年夏天投入營運。目前，亞太地區的服務由歐洲提供，這增加了將產品送到最終用戶手中的成本和交貨時間。該設施將使我們能夠節省大量的貨運時間和成本。

We believe our go-to-market network and strategy in this region, coupled with our local manufacturing footprint, with the result in our ability to sell at much more attractive prices to fuel growth without negatively impacting our margin. With the size of the economies there and growing importance of sustainability in places like Australia and Japan, we believe Asia Pacific should become a more meaningful contributor to our PPS business globally.

我們相信，我們在該地區的市場網絡和策略，加上我們的本地製造足跡，將使我們能夠以更具吸引力的價格銷售產品，從而促進成長，而不會對我們的利潤率產生負面影響。鑑於亞太地區經濟規模龐大以及永續發展在澳洲和日本等地日益重要的地位，我們相信亞太地區應該成為我們全球 PPS 業務更有意義的貢獻者。

Thank you all again, at this point, we'd like to open up the line for questions. Operator?

再次感謝大家，現在，我們想開放提問專線。操作員？

Thank you. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。（操作員指令）

Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

甘沙姆·潘賈比，貝爾德。

Thank you, Operator. Hello, everybody. Omar, just specific to fourth quarter, as you think back, maybe you can give us a sense of which end markets were better than perhaps your initial forecast. And then as it relates to the guidance for 2024 on an EBITDA basis, how should we think about phasing and seasonality between the first half and second half?

謝謝您，接線生。大家好。奧馬爾，具體到第四季度，回想一下，也許您可以讓我們了解哪些終端市場比您最初的預測要好。然後，就 2024 年 EBITDA 預測而言，我們應該如何考慮上半年和下半年之間的分階段和季節性？

Sure. Yeah. Thanks, Ghansham. I would say in the fourth quarter, the holiday season, in particular in the e-commerce was a little bit healthier than we had anticipated going into the quarter. Maybe we were a little bit too cautious given, you know, the prior year, we didn't see that seasonality uptick. And then in reality, what we saw, frankly, across different geographies in the US, in Europe, and in Asia Pacific was a stronger holiday season. So I think that really helped.

當然。是的。謝謝，Ghansham。我想說，第四季的假期季，尤其是電子商務的銷售情況比我們預期的要好一些。或許我們有點過於謹慎了，因為你知道，去年我們並沒有看到季節性的上升。事實上，坦白說，我們在美國、歐洲和亞太地區不同地區看到的是假期季節的銷售更強勁。所以我認為這確實有幫助。

In terms of 2024 and seasonality, this is a year where we think the large accounts and strategic accounts that I've been discussing on a number of these calls are going to kick in, in a meaningful way. I've mentioned in prior calls that we have a number of them in our trials and in our pipeline for I'm happy to report. As of now, we have been successful in converting some of these trials and pipeline into wins and closes. We're installing some of that equipment in this quarter.

就 2024 年和季節性而言，我們認為，我在許多電話會議上討論過的大型帳戶和策略帳戶將在今年以有意義的方式發揮作用。我在之前的電話會議中提到過，我們正在試驗和籌備其中的一些項目，我很高興地向大家報告。截至目前，我們已成功將部分試驗和管道轉化為勝利和成交。我們正在本季安裝一些設備。

And from a seasonality standpoint, I would expect that you're going to start seeing some pickup in the second quarter of 2024. And again, given some of these wins and given what we saw this past quarter, I'm expecting a pretty strong second half of the year, based on both these wins and the switch from plastic to paper as well as the holiday and peak season later in the year.

從季節性的角度來看，我預計您將在 2024 年第二季開始看到一些回升。而且，考慮到這些勝利以及我們在上個季度看到的情況，我預計今年下半年將會表現相當強勁，這既基於這些勝利，也基於從塑料到紙張的轉換，以及今年晚些時候的假期和旺季。

Okay. So would that by definition, imply an acceleration in the machine placement side to then as we progress?

好的。那麼根據定義，這是否意味著隨著我們的進步，機器放置的速度會加速？

I think it'll play some, to be honest, we through our systems and through optimization and prefab and refurbishing we have been moving more equipment within our system than ever. So it may not be reflected in a lot of new CapEx and new equipment. I think you may see a number of these dispensers and converters being a little bit more optimized as Bill highlighted in the call, that's a pretty big initiative, given the large investments we've done the last couple of years in converters. So the short answer is you'll see some incremental CapEx and new equipment, but you're also going to see some movement to optimize our network between existing converters and dispensers.

我認為它會發揮一些作用，說實話，我們透過我們的系統，透過優化、預製和翻新，我們在系統內移動的設備比以往任何時候都多。因此，它可能不會反映在大量新的資本支出和新設備中。我認為您可能會看到許多分配器和轉換器都得到了進一步優化，正如比爾在電話中強調的那樣，考慮到我們過去幾年在轉換器方面所做的大量投資，這是一項相當大的舉措。因此，簡短的回答是，您會看到一些增量資本支出和新設備，但您也會看到一些優化現有轉換器和分配器之間的網路的舉措。

Okay. That's fantastic to hear. And maybe a follow-up for Bill in terms of some of the moving parts build on free cash flow and also the swap expiration in June of 2024 and the impact on interest expense in the second half versus the first half?

好的。聽到這個消息真是太好了。也許可以對比爾進行後續跟進，包括自由現金流的一些變動部分，以及 2024 年 6 月的掉期到期以及下半年與上半年相比對利息支出的影響？

Yeah, Ghansham, so you're asking about free cash flow expectations for '24?

是的，Ghansham，所以你問的是 24 年的自由現金流預期嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yeah. So I think, Ghansham, the way that, we think about if you look at the guide, the mid-range, we call it around $85 million or so for us, what we've got pretty sizable cash balance that we're getting some nice income on. So we could include the interest income that we collect as well as the obviously the cash interest expense, we're looking at around $29 million, $30 million for 2024.

是的。所以我認為，Ghansham，如果你看一下指南，我們認為中檔價格大約為 8500 萬美元左右，我們有相當可觀的現金餘額，可以從中獲得一些不錯的收入。因此，我們可以包括我們收取的利息收入以及顯然的現金利息支出，我們預計 2024 年的收入將約為 2,900 萬美元至 3,000 萬美元。

Cash taxes, we would assume to be in that mid single digits in millions and then from a working capital standpoint, a slight use, right? I think we'll be making some investments in working cap this year to invest in some of the strategic account activity that Omar highlighted. So all in that gets you in the double digit millions of free cash flow generation.

現金稅，我們假設是百萬中個位數，然後從營運資金的角度來看，用途很小，對嗎？我認為我們今年將在營運資本方面進行一些投資，以投資奧馬爾強調的一些策略帳戶活動。所有這些加起來可以為你帶來數千萬的自由現金流。

Okay. Perfect. Thanks so much. Okay. I'll turn it over. Thanks a lot. That's very helpful.

好的。完美的。非常感謝。好的。我把它翻過來。多謝。這非常有幫助。

Thanks, Ghansham.

謝謝，Ghansham。

Adam Samuelson, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的亞當·塞繆爾森。

Yes, thank you. Good afternoon, everyone.

是的，謝謝。大家下午好。

Hi, Adam.

你好，亞當。

Hi, Adam.

你好，亞當。

Hi. So I guess my first question is going back to the point on maybe repositioning warm at converters and then you had in the past, I think it was the first time and it's really and a point I can see in the model where the installed base and especially the installed base and void fill, it actually decreased sequentially. So can you talk maybe or a little bit more about the magnitude of those actions? How much you're repositioning? Is it largely void filler, you're doing it in wrapping and cushioning as well. And what is the expectation for installed base growth in 2024 in aggregate with I think you said $35 million of total CapEx, Bill. So we have that I'd make just trying to tie the all those pieces together.

你好。所以我想我的第一個問題是回到可能重新定位轉換器的溫暖這一點，然後你在過去，我認為這是第一次，而且我可以在模型中看到安裝基數，特別是安裝基數和空隙填充，它實際上是連續下降的。那麼能否稍微談談這些行動的重要性呢？您要重新定位多少？它主要是填補空隙嗎？比爾，我記得你說的總資本支出為 3500 萬美元，那麼預計 2024 年安裝基數成長總量是多少？因此，我只是想嘗試將所有這些部分聯繫在一起。

So I mean, I would say the converter, refabrication and refurbishment is a major initiative for us right. We want to make sure that we're maximizing free cash flow, especially in this environment. And I think with the number of converters that we deployed right over recent years, there's the ability for us to reposition a number of those.

所以我的意思是，我想說轉換器、再製造和翻新對我們來說是一項重大舉措。我們希望確保最大限度地提高自由現金流，尤其是在這種環境下。我認為，憑藉我們近年來部署的轉換器數量，我們有能力重新定位其中的一些。

So we're working actively with the sales team and also using the analytics that we've put in place in the past couple of years to really look at accounts, make sure that, the way the deals were underwritten. If the performance isn't matching what was originally expected that we had those conversations and redeploying those converters elsewhere.

因此，我們積極與銷售團隊合作，同時利用過去幾年建立的分析方法來真實審視帳戶，確保交易的承保方式。如果效能與最初的預期不符，我們會進行這些討論並將這些轉換器重新部署到其他地方。

And then I think the team has been doing a good job with that. And I think the other things that you're probably seeing just in the placement account, the numbers is it's related to some of the macro activity, particularly in Europe. On the commissioning side, right? you just seeing some of those accounts, right, that have been under pressure, right? So we're going and getting machines back from some of those more industrial areas that have just been hit harder by the last couple of years.

我認為團隊在這方面做得很好。我認為您可能在安置帳戶中看到的其他數字與一些宏觀活動有關，特別是在歐洲。在調試方面，對嗎？您剛才看到了一些一直承受著壓力的帳戶，對吧？因此，我們要去那些在過去幾年遭受重創的工業區回收機器。

So I think it's an initiative that's across the board right across all categories to maximize our free cash flow. And we'll continue to do that and use the analytics to really make sure that we're maximizing the return on the capital that we've deployed. As far as '24 goes, if you're looking for a modeling estimate, I think for us, we're estimating that mid-single digit growth in the installed base. Is that helpful?

所以我認為這是一項涵蓋所有類別的全面舉措，旨在最大化我們的自由現金流。我們將繼續這樣做，並利用分析手段確保我們部署的資本回報最大化。就 24 年而言，如果您正在尋找模型估計，我認為對於我們來說，我們估計安裝基數將實現中等個位數成長。這樣有幫助嗎？

Now that is. And maybe just a follow-up, as we think about pricing and the confidence on the gross margin outlook, especially where you might have seen my tea kraft paper entire North America? I think Europe is it's been weaker and certainly the inflationary environment there with energy is has backed off. Just help us think about your visibility on your kraft paper purchases and your ability to consistently price that up through the distribution. Our thing pre-COVID, pre-Europe inflation the business that operated on annual paper purchases. And I can't imagine you're getting fixed price paper purchases from your suppliers anymore.

現在就是這樣了。也許只是一個後續問題，當我們考慮定價和對毛利率前景的信心時，特別是您可能已經看到我的茶牛皮紙遍布整個北美？我認為歐洲已經變得較弱，而且那裡的能源通膨環境肯定已經減弱。只要幫助我們思考一下您對牛皮紙採購的了解程度以及您在分銷過程中始終如一地定價的能力。在新冠疫情之前、歐洲通膨之前，我們的業務是靠年度紙張採購來運作的。我無法想像你還會從供應商以固定價格購買紙張。

Yeah, I think that's right, Adam. What we are seeing in this environment and frankly, it's applying to different geographies. Obviously, our largest being Europe and in the US is pretty much we are coming up with agreements that on average, I would say are around six months in duration. So think of that as the price resets, twice a year rather than the annual agreements that we used to have a couple of years ago, and that reset might be related to some indexed pricing.

是的，我認為是對的，亞當。坦白說，我們在這種環境中看到的情況適用於不同的地區。顯然，我們最大的合作夥伴是歐洲和美國，我們達成的協議平均持續時間約為六個月。因此，可以將其視為價格重置，每年兩次，而不是像幾年前那樣每年重置一次，而且該重置可能與某些指數定價有關。

So in general, we feel pretty good about getting some visibility, even though it's not for the full-year, it's not super volatile with a lot of frequent resets, if you will, now the tone out there in the market is look, obviously, the space now is facing a lot of consolidation and discussion around consolidation with the large corrugated and paper players. We're in close touch with all of our suppliers they continue to push that, if we can do more volume, they're willing to work with us on price. And frankly, we think with some of the strategic account activity that we're winning and hopefully we'll move the needle in 2024. We have been negotiating pricing, et cetera, to fulfill the rest of the year.

因此，總的來說，我們對獲得一些可見性感到非常高興，即使它不是全年的，它也不是很不穩定，也沒有很多頻繁的重置，如果你願意的話，現在市場上的基調是看，顯然，現在這個領域正面臨著大量的整合，以及與大型瓦楞紙和造紙企業整合的討論。我們與所有供應商都保持著密切聯繫，他們不斷敦促我們，如果我們能夠增加產量，他們願意在價格上與我們合作。坦白說，我們認為透過一些策略帳戶活動，我們會取得勝利，並希望在 2024 年取得進展。我們一直在協商價格等事宜，以完成今年剩餘時間的任務。

So I feel near term in both geographies in Europe and in the US, we're seeing some stability and pricing that I think hopefully will last throughout the year. But my guess is in the second half of the year, there will be a set of negotiations that we will have given the resets. And that depending on where the index pricing is, we'll see how the second half of the year plays out.

因此，我認為短期內在歐洲和美國兩個地區，我們都會看到一定的穩定性和定價，我希望這種穩定和定價能持續一整年。但我猜測，今年下半年我們將進行一連串重新設定的談判。這取決於指數定價的位置，我們將看到今年下半年的表現如何。

And then to your point on energy, I mean, that seems to be a lot more subdued in terms of volatility in Europe compared to where we were and from everything we're hearing, there's more supply coming to Europe from other sources that hopefully that energy stability will last for a while.

然後說到您提到的能源問題，我的意思是，與我們之前相比，歐洲的波動性似乎要溫和得多，而且從我們聽到的所有消息來看，來自其他來源的能源供應越來越多，希望這種能源穩定能夠持續一段時間。

That's helpful. And if I could just squeeze one more in on the on the automation equipment side, talking about 50% plus growth, which would be over $10 million. I mean, how much of that do you have in backlog today or that, how do you how would you frame the confidence level in that 50% growth just in terms of fixed fixed orders versus you have the lead generation, but you have to convert those into orders and the timing of backlog conversion to orders?

這很有幫助。如果我可以在自動化設備方面再多說一點，那就是成長 50% 以上，也就是超過 1,000 萬美元。我的意思是，您今天有多少積壓訂單，或者，您如何僅從固定訂單的角度來構建 50% 增長的置信水平，而不是您有潛在客戶生成，但您必須將其轉換為訂單以及積壓訂單轉換為訂單的時間？

I would say the confidence is relatively high about that number. That's why we are comfortable sharing the way our business works. And obviously, there is peak season and early in the year, it's a bit different, but I think about once we get these orders and these bookings, we're fulfilling those sometime in the next six to nine ensuing months.

我想說，對於這個數字，信心是相對較高的。這就是我們樂於分享我們的業務運作方式的原因。顯然，在旺季和年初，情況會有所不同，但我想，一旦我們收到這些訂單和預訂，我們會在接下來的六到九個月內完成它們。

So I would say our visibility for the next couple of quarters is pretty decent later in the year. We still need to increase our bookings now to help hit those numbers that are later in the year, given the six to nine months average period, if you will. But I mean, last quarter, I think I mentioned we had record bookings I mean, we continue to have very elevated levels of bookings, which is increasing our confidence in hitting that number this year.

因此我想說，今年稍後我們未來幾季的可見度是相當不錯的。考慮到六到九個月的平均週期，我們現在仍然需要增加預訂量，以幫助達到今年稍後的數字。但我的意思是，上個季度，我想我提到我們創下了預訂記錄，我的意思是，我們的預訂量繼續保持非常高的水平，這增加了我們今年達到這一數字的信心。

That's very helpful. I'll pass it on. Thank you.

這非常有幫助。我會傳達的。謝謝。

Thanks, Adam.

謝謝，亞當。

Greg Palm, Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

帕爾姆（Greg Palm），Craig-Hallum 資本集團。

Thanks. This is Danny Eggerichs on for Greg today. Congrats on a good quarter. Good to see see the volumes come back a little bit, I guess from maybe what you've seen in Q4 and quarter to date on the volumes,just overall visibility and sounds like you're pretty confident in the guide as well as those larger strategic accounts ramping in the second half. I guess does the macro have to improve much from here for you to feel pretty good about those or regardless you feel comfortable there? And then any continuation and macro recovery provides even some potential upside from there?

謝謝。今天由丹尼·艾格里奇斯代替格雷格主持。恭喜本季取得良好業績。很高興看到交易量有所回升，我想也許從您在第四季度和本季度迄今為止的交易量來看，只是整體的可見性，聽起來您對指南以及下半年那些較大的戰略賬戶的增長非常有信心。我猜想宏觀層面是否必須從現在開始有很大改進才能讓您對這些感覺良好，或者無論如何您都感到舒適？那麼，任何延續和宏觀復甦是否會提供一些潛在的上行空間？

Yeah. Let me start, it's Omar, and then I'll have maybe Bill will chime in. I would say for the micro and the fundamental picture that we see in our business, we really like. So whether that's volume trends, whether that's what we're seeing in gross margin and stability in our largest input cost, which is paper order, that's the trial activity. The switch from plastic to paper and our pipeline activity, all these are trending really well.

是的。讓我先來談談奧馬爾，然後也許比爾也會加入進來。我想說，就我們業務中看到的微觀和基本情況而言，我們真的很喜歡。因此，無論是數量趨勢，還是我們在毛利率和最大投入成本（即紙本訂單）的穩定性中看到的，這都是試驗活動。從塑膠到紙張的轉變以及我們的管道活動，所有這些都呈現良好的趨勢。

I wouldn't say that we're banking on the macro environment to improve. I would say we're seeing things maybe stay the same from a macro environment and probably given the macro environment, we've decided to give a guide that we feel confident and by reflect a little bit of conservatism, not because of what we're seeing inside our business, but more because of what's happening, all around us with the macro backdrop.

我不會說我們指望宏觀環境會改善。我想說，從宏觀環境來看，我們看到的情況可能保持不變，考慮到宏觀環境，我們決定給出一個讓我們感到有信心的指導，並反映出一點保守性，這並不是因為我們在業務內部看到的情況，而更多的是因為在宏觀背景下我們周圍正在發生的事情。

So whether it's geopolitics, whether it's about where inflation is headed or interest rates, where are, we don't have any unique insight or views. I think that's the stuff that's causing us to be a little bit cautious. So I would say we're assuming a macro environment that will go throughout the year. That's similar to where we are today. And if that's the case given the fundamentals that we're seeing in our business, we have very high confidence in our guide. Bill, I don't know if you have something to add.

因此，無論是地緣政治，或是通膨或利率走向，我們都沒有任何獨特的見解或觀點。我認為這就是讓我們有點謹慎的原因。所以我想說，我們假設宏觀環境將會持續全年。這與我們今天的狀況類似。如果情況確實如此，考慮到我們業務的基本面，我們對我們的指南非常有信心。比爾，我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充。

Yeah. I mean, I can give a little bit more details as to how we're thinking about maybe the top line growth, if that's helpful. So just from a volume standpoint, at the low end of the guide, we're assuming a low to mid-single digit volume growth with the high end being mid to high single digit automation, we're assuming roughly 2.5 point to 3.5 points. And then a little bit about the pricing headwind as what we've built in as we lap some of the pricing adjustments we made in the second half of last year.

是的。我的意思是，如果有幫助的話，我可以提供更多關於我們如何考慮營收成長的細節。因此，僅從數量的角度來看，在指南的低端，我們假設數量增長率為低到中等個位數，而高端是中到高個位數的自動化，我們假設大約為 2.5 個百分點到 3.5 個百分點。然後我們再來談談定價方面的逆風，這是我們在去年下半年進行的一些價格調整的一部分。

So from a volume perspective, with the strategic account activity that Omar mentioned, we were not baking in a meaningful improvement in operating activity. So I think for us. We feel like it'll continue to get better throughout the year, right, as the operating environment continues to slightly improve, which is what we're seeing. And then this account activity kicks in.

因此，從數量角度來看，透過奧馬爾提到的策略帳戶活動，我們並沒有在營運活動方面取得顯著改善。所以我認為我們應該這樣做。我們覺得全年情況會持續好轉，因為經營環境會持續略有改善，這正是我們所看到的。然後這個帳戶活動就開始了。

Yeah, got it. That all makes sense. Maybe just touching quickly on sustainability trends. It feels like we're seeing more and more companies coming out with new initiatives or state regulations, I guess from your seat, you feel like you're seeing that accelerate and is there potential for overall sustainability to be a bigger driver this year may be relative to last?

嗯，明白了。這一切都是有道理的。也許只是快速談談永續發展趨勢。感覺我們看到越來越多的公司推出了新的舉措或國家法規，我想從您的角度來看，您覺得您看到這種趨勢正在加速，那麼今年的整體可持續性是否有可能成為比去年更大的推動力？

I think, and I highlighted it on the call. I think extended producer responsibility laws and regulations that have been passed in a number of states. Probably most importantly, California are really playing an important role in having a number of these companies go maybe beyond the conversation around sustainability and start taking action. I really attribute that as a key driver to increasing some of our trial activity. And then obviously, once our equipment is there, it's up to us to prove ourselves on our solutions and hopefully convert these trials into closes.

我認為，並且我在電話中強調了這一點。我認為許多州都已經通過了擴大生產者責任的法律和法規。或許最重要的是，加州確實發揮著重要作用，讓這些公司超越永續發展的討論，開始採取行動。我確實認為這是增加我們的一些試驗活動的關鍵驅動因素。顯然，一旦我們的設備到位，我們就必須證明我們的解決方案，並希望將這些試驗轉化為最終成果。

So I think what you seeing in the US in particular with the larger accounts, I believe a big driver behind the switch is driven by new regulations, discussions around these new regulations and maybe a bit more of a focus around sustainability. Now those rules have been enacted in Europe for a while, and we've seen the benefit of those over the last number of years.

因此，我認為，特別是你在美國看到的較大帳戶的情況，我相信這種轉變背後的一個主要驅動力是新法規、圍繞這些新法規的討論，以及可能更多地關注可持續性。現在這些規則已在歐洲實施了一段時間，並且在過去幾年中我們已經看到了它們帶來的好處。

The new thing that we're seeing is really that spike in discussion and activity in the US, which I think hopefully will give us a tailwind for the next number of years because many of these EPR rules are going to start being implemented over the next number of years, which I think is good for us.

我們看到的新情況是美國的討論和活動激增，我認為這將為我們在未來幾年帶來順風，因為許多 EPR 規則將在未來幾年開始實施，我認為這對我們來說是有利的。

Yeah, absolutely. Alright, I'll leave it there. Thanks.

是的，絕對是如此。好的，我就把它留在那裡了。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Bill Drew, I turn the call back over to you.

目前沒有其他問題。比爾‧德魯先生，我把電話轉回給您。

Thank you, Debre, and thank you all for joining the call today. I look forward to talking about the Q1 with the next earnings call.

謝謝你，德布雷，也謝謝大家今天的參加電話會議。我期待在下次財報電話會議上討論第一季的業績。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。