Ranpak Holdings Corp (PACK) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Ranpak Holdings Corporation Third Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instruction] Thank you, Sarah Horbach, General Counsel. You may begin your conference.

早上好。我叫 Rob，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時，我想歡迎大家參加 Ranpak Holdings Corporation 2022 年第三季度業績電話會議。所有線路都已設為靜音以防止任何背景噪音。發言者發言後，將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）謝謝您，總法律顧問 Sarah Horbach。您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that we will discuss forward-looking statements as defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, including those discussed in our press release and the risk factors identified in our Form 10-K and our other filings filed with the SEC. Some of the statements in responses to your questions in this conference call may include forward-looking statements that are subject to future events and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from these statements.

謝謝大家，早上好。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們將討論 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。由於各種因素，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異，包括我們的新聞稿中討論的那些以及我們的 10-K 表格和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中確定的風險因素。在本次電話會議中回答您的問題的一些陳述可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受未來事件和不確定因素的影響，可能導致我們的實際結果與這些陳述存在重大差異。

Ranpak assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, all of which speak to the company only as of today. The earnings release we issued this morning and the presentation for today's call are posted on the Investor Relations section of our website. A copy of the press release has been included in a Form 8-K that we submitted to the SEC before this call. We will also make a replay of this conference call available via webcast on the company website.

Ranpak 不承擔任何義務，也不打算更新任何此類前瞻性陳述。您不應過分依賴這些前瞻性陳述，所有這些陳述僅在今天對公司有效。我們今天上午發布的收益發布和今天電話會議的演示文稿發佈在我們網站的投資者關係部分。新聞稿的副本已包含在我們在此電話會議之前提交給 SEC 的 8-K 表格中。我們還將通過公司網站上的網絡廣播重播此次電話會議。

For financial information that is presented on a non-GAAP basis, we have included reconciliations to the comparable GAAP information. Please refer to the table and slide presentation accompanying today's earnings release.

對於基於非 GAAP 基礎提供的財務信息，我們已包含與可比 GAAP 信息的調節。請參閱今天的收益發布隨附的表格和幻燈片演示。

Lastly, we'll be filing our 10-Q with the SEC for the period ending September 30, 2022. The 10-Q will be available through the SEC or on the Investor Relations section of our website.

最後，我們將向 SEC 提交截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日的 10-Q 報告。10-Q 報告將通過 SEC 或我們網站的投資者關係部分提供。

With me today, I have Omar Asali, our Chairman and CEO; and Bill Drew, our CFO. Omar will summarize our third quarter results and provide commentary on the operating landscape and Bill, will provide additional detail on the financial results before we open up the call for questions.

今天和我在一起的有我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Omar Asali；和我們的首席財務官 Bill Drew。 Omar 將總結我們的第三季度業績並提供有關運營環境的評論，而 Bill 將在我們開始提問之前提供有關財務業績的更多詳細信息。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Omar.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給奧馬爾。

Thank you, Sarah, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you all joining us this morning. As expected, the third quarter was a challenging one at Ranpak as the headwinds we discussed on our Q2 call impacted results and macro weakness intensified throughout the globe. The global consumer remains under pressure due to inflationary headwinds related to fuel, food and energy impacting personal budgets and reducing disposable income. Adding to the challenges, spending patterns remain firmly in favor of experiences and travel rather than in e-commerce as many consumers pull forward their goods purchases during the pandemic.

謝謝莎拉，大家早上好。感謝大家今天早上加入我們。正如預期的那樣，第三季度對 Ranpak 來說是一個充滿挑戰的季度，因為我們在第二季度電話會議上討論的逆風影響了結果，並且宏觀疲軟在全球範圍內加劇。由於與燃料、食品和能源相關的通脹逆風影響個人預算並減少可支配收入，全球消費者仍然面臨壓力。雪上加霜的是，由於許多消費者在大流行期間提前購買商品，因此消費模式仍然堅定地傾向於體驗和旅行，而不是電子商務。

More recently, the impact of rapidly rising rates on household network and rising housing costs is having an impact on confidence and reducing willingness to spend on discretionary items. Overall, we expect e-commerce and the consumer to remain under some pressure in the near term. But as we exit the year and head into 2023, we will begin to lap the short-term pattern shift from the purchase of goods to experiences and expect e-commerce to ultimately return to growth. Due to the share shift from brick-and-mortar with the timing and trajectory of a recovery impacted by the near-term macro headwinds.

最近，快速上升的家庭網絡利率和不斷上漲的住房成本正在影響信心並降低在可自由支配項目上的支出意願。總體而言，我們預計電子商務和消費者在短期內仍將承受一定壓力。但隨著我們結束這一年並進入 2023 年，我們將開始考慮從購買商品到體驗的短期模式轉變，並預計電子商務最終會恢復增長。由於份額從實體店轉移，復甦的時間和軌跡受到近期宏觀逆風的影響。

While the environment certainly remains challenging, we have been developing new products that are ideally suited for the e-commerce environment, which we believe can improve the velocity of our bounce back and get us back on a trajectory for growth we have been working towards.

雖然環境肯定仍然充滿挑戰，但我們一直在開發非常適合電子商務環境的新產品，我們相信這可以提高我們反彈的速度，讓我們回到我們一直努力的增長軌道。

In July, we communicated that we expected the energy crisis in Europe to worsen and its impact on the economy to become more pronounced. The ramifications of skyrocketing energy prices are flowing through the economy at this time, and we expect headwinds to persist until alternative energy supplies can be from up, and the continent has a viable path forward without Russian natural gas. While governments have been slower to take action in securing new sources of energy than we would all like, many companies in the region are taking the matter into their own hands and switching their key energy inputs from natural gas to oil and coal, which is helping to reduce demand and meet storage targets ahead of the winter.

今年7月，我們曾表示，預計歐洲能源危機將進一步惡化，對經濟的影響將更加明顯。能源價格飛漲的後果此時正在影響經濟，我們預計逆風將持續存在，直到替代能源供應可以從上而下，並且該大陸在沒有俄羅斯天然氣的情況下有一條可行的前進道路。雖然各國政府在確保新能源方面採取行動的速度比我們所有人希望的要慢，但該地區的許多公司正在自行處理此事，並將其主要能源投入從天然氣轉向石油和煤炭，這有助於以減少需求並在冬季之前實現存儲目標。

Pricing for natural gas has remained extremely volatile, moving meaningfully one way or the other based on the headline of the day. The ultimate impact this environment has on business and the consumer is difficult to forecast. So we are seeing in close touch with our vendors and customers to share information and plan accordingly.

天然氣的價格一直極不穩定，根據當天的頭條新聞以一種或另一種方式有意義地移動。這種環境對企業和消費者的最終影響難以預測。因此，我們正在與我們的供應商和客戶保持密切聯繫，以共享信息並製定相應的計劃。

We feel very confident in our paper sourcing as we have reallocated our buy and taken steps to reduce risk. Our status as a reliable sized buyer of paper has helped us secure access to the tonnes we need. For some regional color, North American results were disappointing as lackluster e-commerce activity persisted throughout the quarter, impacting Void-fill and Wrapping, while cushioning was down modestly due to slower activity.

我們對紙張採購非常有信心，因為我們已經重新分配採購併採取措施降低風險。我們作為可靠的大型紙張買家的地位幫助我們確保獲得所需噸數。對於某些區域顏色，北美的結果令人失望，因為電子商務活動在整個季度持續低迷，影響了 Void-fill 和 Wrapping，而緩衝由於活動放緩而適度下降。

New business activity continues to be solid, though, and at levels in line with Q2, which is encouraging. The biggest areas of demand continue to be in our cushioning solutions, which we are working hard on fulfilling the converter demand. In Europe and APAC, performance vary throughout the region and country by country. Fortunately, I believe the substantial portion of the destocking activity that has impacted us throughout the year has largely been worked through, although some pockets still persist in the Nordic region and Australia.

不過，新業務活動繼續保持穩健，並且與第二季度保持一致，這令人鼓舞。最大的需求領域仍然是我們的緩衝解決方案，我們正在努力滿足轉換器的需求。在歐洲和亞太地區，整個地區和國家/地區的表現各不相同。幸運的是，我相信全年對我們產生影響的去庫存活動中的大部分已經基本解決，儘管北歐地區和澳大利亞仍然存在一些問題。

The biggest detractors in the quarter were in Germany, Poland and Australia, with Germany and Poland, largely driven by the macro and Australia impacted by lower e-commerce activity combined with destocking.

本季度最大的拖累者是德國、波蘭和澳大利亞，其中德國和波蘭主要受到宏觀經濟的推動，而澳大利亞則受到電子商務活動減少和去庫存的影響。

Bright spots in the reporting unit can be found in Japan, which was up nicely year-over-year and continues to be a source of new business wins as well as Austria, Switzerland and Spain, which outperformed.

報告部門的亮點可以在日本找到，日本同比增長良好，繼續成為新業務贏利的來源，還有奧地利、瑞士和西班牙，表現優於大市。

The macro backdrop is difficult, but certain areas that have been headwinds for us all year are starting to show some signs of improvement, driven by improved availability and lower commodity costs. Freight rates for ocean containers have dramatically improved as have tracking spot rates and availability in North America. We believe the momentum for paper pricing relief in North America continues to build as additional capacity is coming online and the lower demand for corrugated products improves availability.

宏觀背景是困難的，但在可用性提高和商品成本降低的推動下，全年對我們不利的某些領域開始顯示出一些改善跡象。海運集裝箱的運費已顯著提高，北美的跟踪即期運費和可用性也有所提高。我們認為，隨著更多產能的上線以及對瓦楞紙產品需求的減少提高了可用性，北美紙張價格下調的勢頭將繼續增強。

Pricing of a number of commodities, including OCC, pulp and lumber, has meaningfully improved and inflationary metrics such as service and manufacturing PMI prices, car prices and rents have begun to roll over. Many of these should help drive improved input costs for our business going into next year. While we would welcome external factors such as these, I just mentioned improving, we have been focused on helping ourselves through expense reduction, greater efficiencies and new product development to drive demand.

包括 OCC、紙漿和木材在內的許多大宗商品的定價已經顯著改善，服務和製造業 PMI 價格、汽車價格和租金等通脹指標已經開始回落。其中許多應該有助於推動我們的業務進入明年的投入成本得到改善。雖然我們歡迎諸如此類的外部因素，但我剛才提到了改進，我們一直專注於通過減少開支、提高效率和新產品開發來推動需求來幫助自己。

Our G&A expense reduction effort I discussed last call is being executed and starting to flow through. Over the past number of months, we have implemented plans to reduce headcount by approximately 10% across the globe and reduced discretionary spend where possible. Some of these benefits are yet to be realized due to local notification requirements, but we should see the bulk of the savings on a run rate basis by year-end.

我在上次電話會議上討論的我們的 G&A 費用削減工作正在執行並開始實施。在過去的幾個月裡，我們實施了在全球範圍內裁員約 10% 的計劃，並儘可能減少可自由支配的支出。由於當地的通知要求，其中一些好處尚未實現，但我們應該會在年底前看到大部分節省的運行率。

On the efficiency front, we are getting better with the new systems every day and believe it will be an important tool to support our ability to extract manufacturing efficiencies as we grow our business. Our new facilities in the Netherlands and Malaysia, which opened in 2023, should also enable us to operate in a more efficient and lower-cost manner.

在效率方面，我們每天都在使用新系統變得更好，並且相信它將成為支持我們在業務發展過程中提高製造效率的能力的重要工具。我們在荷蘭和馬來西亞的新設施於 2023 年投入使用，這也應該使我們能夠以更高效、更低成本的方式運營。

The Netherlands facility combines 3 facilities into 1, and Malaysia provides us with the lower-cost, local platform to service the APAC region. What I'm most excited about though is the work we have been doing on the new product side, we have meaningful introductions coming in the near term on the Void-fill, Wrapping, cold chain and automation front. We believe the introduction of these new products will help us drive demand, gain market share and get back on the path to growth.

荷蘭設施將 3 個設施合二為一，馬來西亞為我們提供了成本更低的本地平台來為亞太地區提供服務。不過，令我最興奮的是我們在新產品方面所做的工作，近期我們將在空隙填充、包裝、冷鍊和自動化方面進行有意義的介紹。我們相信這些新產品的推出將幫助我們推動需求、獲得市場份額並重回增長之路。

Now I'll turn it to Bill for an overview on the financial results.

現在我將請比爾概述一下財務結果。

Thank you, Omar. In the deck, you'll see a summary of some of our key performance indicators. We'll also be filing our 10-Q, which provides further information on Ranpak's operating results. Machine placement in the quarter increased 7.3% year-over-year to approximately 138,500 machines globally. Solid placement performance but at a lower rate than earlier in the year due to slower market conditions.

謝謝你，奧馬爾。在甲板上，您會看到我們的一些關鍵績效指標的摘要。我們還將提交我們的 10-Q，它提供有關 Ranpak 經營業績的更多信息。本季度全球機器放置量同比增長 7.3% 至約 138,500 台。配售表現穩健，但由於市場狀況放緩，配售速度低於今年早些時候。

Cushioning Systems grew 1.4% in the quarter, while Void-fill installed systems increased 8.1% and Wrapping increased 14.6% year-over-year. Overall, net revenue for the company in the third quarter was down 12% year-over-year on a constant currency basis, driven by lower volumes due to slower end market demand, offset somewhat by positive price contribution.

緩衝系統本季度增長 1.4%，而空隙填充安裝系統同比增長 8.1%，包裝系統同比增長 14.6%。總體而言，由於終端市場需求放緩導致銷量下降，該公司第三季度淨收入按固定匯率計算同比下降 12%，但在一定程度上被積極的價格貢獻所抵消。

North American net revenue decreased 10.5% year-over-year, largely driven by lower Void-fill and Wrapping sales as e-commerce activity was lower compared to the prior period. In Europe and APAC, net revenue on a constant currency basis in the third quarter was down 13% year-over-year, driven by lower volumes and partially offset by higher price in the region.

北美淨收入同比下降 10.5%，這主要是由於電子商務活動較上一期間較低，導致空隙填充和包裝銷售額下降。在歐洲和亞太地區，第三季度按固定匯率計算的淨收入同比下降 13%，原因是銷量下降，部分被該地區的價格上漲所抵消。

Overall, general economic weakness in the region and the allocation of disposable income to travel and experiences rather than e-commerce, weighed on results as all categories were down in the quarter. Sentiment in the region remains extremely poor as consumers and businesses are tightening their belts in anticipation of a painful winter due to the energy crisis.

總體而言，該地區的總體經濟疲軟以及可支配收入分配給旅遊和體驗而非電子商務，對業績造成壓力，因為本季度所有類別均出現下滑。該地區的情緒仍然極度低迷，因為消費者和企業都在勒緊褲腰帶，預計能源危機將帶來一個痛苦的冬天。

Automation sales increased a little under 10% this quarter on a constant currency basis and represented approximately 5% of sales as we continue to make inroads with our automated solutions that enable customers to accelerate the packaging output, reduce operating costs and improve the sustainability profile of their operations.

本季度自動化銷售額在固定匯率基礎上增長略低於 10%，約佔銷售額的 5%，因為我們繼續通過我們的自動化解決方案取得進展，使客戶能夠加快包裝輸出，降低運營成本並改善可持續發展狀況他們的行動。

Our COGS in the quarter remained under pressure compared to a year ago due to inflationary headwinds largely related to paper pricing. The COGS headwinds, combined with the lower sales resulted in a gross profit decline on a constant currency basis of 29%, implying a margin of 31.6% on a constant currency basis compared to 39.1% in the prior year.

與一年前相比，我們本季度的銷貨成本仍面臨壓力，原因是主要與紙質定價相關的通貨膨脹逆風。銷貨成本不利因素加上較低的銷售額導致按固定匯率計算的毛利潤下降 29%，這意味著按固定匯率計算的利潤率為 31.6%，而去年同期為 39.1%。

Excluding depreciation, gross margins on a constant currency basis declined year-over-year from 49.2% to 42.2% during the third quarter. The margin headwinds were driven primarily by increased material costs, which represented [5.3 points] of pressure. Increased automation, which negatively impacted margins by 120 basis points as well as increased depreciation, which contributed 50 basis points of pressure in the quarter, while freight as well as labor and overhead provided some relief.

不計折舊，第三季度按固定匯率計算的毛利率從 49.2% 同比下降至 42.2%。利潤逆風主要是由材料成本增加推動的，這代表了 [5.3 個百分點] 的壓力。自動化程度的提高對利潤率產生了 120 個基點的負面影響，同時折舊的增加在本季度造成了 50 個基點的壓力，而運費以及勞動力和管理費用提供了一些緩解。

On a positive note, in Europe and APAC, gross profit per unit improved versus the prior year for the first time in 2022 as paper prices in the region stabilized and pricing actions helped to close the gap. Material cost headwind on margins in the region improved from the [8.7 points] of pressure in the second quarter, 4.9 points in the most recent period. More work to do on this front, but it's step in the right direction.

積極的一面是，在歐洲和亞太地區，單位毛利在 2022 年首次較上年有所改善，原因是該地區的紙價趨於穩定且定價行動有助於縮小差距。該地區利潤率的材料成本逆風從第二季度的 [8.7 點] 壓力有所改善，最近一段時間為 4.9 點。在這方面還有更多工作要做，但這是朝著正確方向邁出的一步。

Constant currency adjusted EBITDA for the quarter declined 41.8% year-over-year to $16.6 million, implying a 19.7% margin on a constant currency basis. The decline was driven by lower gross profit, coupled with G&A that was higher than a year ago, but down sequentially as our cost-saving initiatives are flowing through.

本季度經固定匯率調整後的 EBITDA 同比下降 41.8% 至 1,660 萬美元，這意味著按固定匯率計算的利潤率為 19.7%。下降的原因是毛利潤下降，加上 G&A 比一年前高，但隨著我們的成本節約計劃的實施而連續下降。

We are, of course, continuing to evaluate for areas of efficiencies and cost savings. But overall, we are a more lean and efficient company than we were earlier this year. Within G&A, again, I think it's helpful to point out for the year-over-year comparison directly $2.4 million in cloud computing implementation costs that includes $700,000 of amortization as well as Hypercare outside health as well as the LTIP performance share amortization of roughly $4 million per quarter, which was based on the roughly $25 share price at the time of the grant.

當然，我們將繼續評估效率和成本節約領域。但總的來說，我們是一家比今年早些時候更精簡、更高效的公司。在 G&A 中，我認為有必要直接指出 240 萬美元的雲計算實施成本，其中包括 700,000 美元的攤銷以及健康以外的 Hypercare 以及大約 4 美元的 LTIP 績效份額攤銷，以進行同比比較每季度 100 萬美元，這是基於贈款時大約 25 美元的股價。

The LTIP is strictly performance-based invest on achieving EBITDA between $130 million and $150 million in years 2023 through 2025. One housekeeping note on the non-GAAP reconciliation. Based on feedback from a number of the research analysts, we adjusted the presentation of the non-GAAP reconciliation to provide the P&L without currency adjustments and to include one line item showing the constant currency adjustment to get to adjusted EBITDA.

LTIP 是嚴格基於績效的投資，目標是在 2023 年至 2025 年期間實現 EBITDA 在 1.3 億美元至 1.5 億美元之間。一份關於非 GAAP 對賬的內務管理說明。根據許多研究分析師的反饋，我們調整了非 GAAP 調節表的列報方式，以提供不帶貨幣調整的損益表，並包括一個顯示恆定貨幣調整以獲得調整後 EBITDA 的項目。

We previously provided each line item adjusted for constant currency and some folks said they refer to see it in this newer format. For reference and ease of comparability, we included the older format at the end of the earnings release as well. Hopefully, this new approach will be helpful.

我們之前提供了針對固定貨幣調整的每個行項目，一些人表示他們希望以這種較新的格式看到它。為了便於參考和便於比較，我們還在收益發布的末尾包含了舊格式。希望這種新方法會有所幫助。

Capital expenditures for the quarter were $11.5 million. Converter spend was $6.3 million in the third quarter of 2022, down from $11 million in the third quarter of 2021 and approximately $8.5 million per quarter in Q1 and Q2 of this year. Other CapEx for the quarter was $5.2 million, driven largely by increased investment in technology and infrastructure and our ongoing real estate infrastructure projects.

本季度的資本支出為 1150 萬美元。 2022 年第三季度轉換器支出為 630 萬美元，低於 2021 年第三季度的 1100 萬美元，今年第一季度和第二季度的每季度約為 850 萬美元。本季度的其他資本支出為 520 萬美元，主要受技術和基礎設施投資增加以及我們正在進行的房地產基礎設施項目的推動。

Moving briefly to the balance sheet and liquidity. Cash and cash equivalents improved in the quarter to $61.3 million as of September 30. As communicated in last quarter's call, we have been tightening up the working capital management related to inventory and our CapEx spend on converters. We achieved adequate levels of safety stock and the majority of converters and in some cases, are above targets, which we are evaluating given the weaker economic environment.

簡要介紹一下資產負債表和流動性。截至 9 月 30 日，本季度現金和現金等價物增加至 6,130 萬美元。正如在上一季度的電話會議中所傳達的那樣，我們一直在收緊與庫存相關的營運資本管理以及我們在轉換器上的資本支出。我們實現了足夠的安全庫存水平，大多數加工商，在某些情況下，都高於目標，我們正在評估疲軟的經濟環境。

This well-equipped inventory position will enable us to slow converter CapEx spend in the upcoming quarters, preserving cash. We will work down this position over time to lower safety stock levels, given the lower demand environment and we'll be discerning a new placement as to make sure we are optimizing utilization of the fleet.

這種裝備精良的庫存狀況將使我們能夠在未來幾個季度減緩轉換器資本支出，從而保留現金。鑑於較低的需求環境，我們將隨著時間的推移降低這個位置以降低安全庫存水平，我們將辨別新的位置以確保我們正在優化車隊的利用率。

Our debt structure is comprised of a first lien term loan facility due in 2026, that is split into 2 tranches. One tranche of $250 million is denominated in USD and is L+375. We have 2 interest rate swaps in place on this tranche to manage the rate exposure. $200 million is swapped at 2.09% through June of 2024 and $50 million is swapped at 1.5% through June of 2023. We also have a euro tranche of approximately EUR 136 million outstanding in an effort to hedge the cash flows coming from Europe. This tranche is at Euribor+375 and is floating.

我們的債務結構包括 2026 年到期的第一筆留置權定期貸款，分為兩部分。其中一筆 2.5 億美元以美元計價，為 L+375。我們在這部分有 2 個利率掉期以管理利率風險。到 2024 年 6 月，2 億美元以 2.09% 的利率互換，到 2023 年 6 月，5000 萬美元以 1.5% 的利率互換。我們還有約 1.36 億歐元未償還的歐元部分，以對沖來自歐洲的現金流。這部分利率為 Euribor+375，並且處於浮動狀態。

We have zero drawn on our $45 million revolving line of credit, which expires in June of 2024. Our annual cost of interest at today's level and incorporating the swaps we have in place is just over USD 20 million. Our net leverage based on reported LTM adjusted EBITDA on a constant currency basis was 3.9x at the end of the quarter.

我們在 2024 年 6 月到期的 4500 萬美元循環信貸額度中的提款額度為零。按照今天的水平，我們每年的利息成本加上我們現有的掉期費用剛剛超過 2000 萬美元。我們基於報告的 LTM 調整後 EBITDA 的淨槓桿率在本季度末以固定貨幣為基礎為 3.9 倍。

From a covenant standpoint, our bank adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio was 3.4x. And -- the primary covenants of note we had in our debt, our maximum first lien leverage ratio of 9.1x, which is a springing covenant, which only comes into play if we use more than 35% of our revolving facility and an excess cash flow calculation that we perform at the end of the calendar year and requires us to dedicate a percentage of excess cash flow generated in the annual period to debt pay down or our first-lien leverage ratio is above 4 turns.

從契約的角度來看，我們銀行調整後的 EBITDA 槓桿率為 3.4 倍。而且——我們在債務中的主要契約，我們的最大第一留置權槓桿率為 9.1 倍，這是一個臨時契約，只有在我們使用超過 35% 的循環貸款和多餘現金時才會發揮作用我們在日曆年末執行的流量計算，要求我們將年度期間產生的超額現金流量的一定百分比用於償還債務，或者我們的第一留置權槓桿率高於 4 倍。

Based on our expectations for the remainder of the year and the deductions related to CapEx and working capital taken into calculation, we do not currently anticipate having to pay down any additional debt as a result of the test.

根據我們對今年剩餘時間的預期以及與資本支出和營運資金相關的扣除計算，我們目前預計不會因測試而償還任何額外債務。

To summarize, because I think it's important to make clear, we have more than $100 million in liquidity, no near-term maturities and substantial headroom underneath any leverage covenant. We believe we have plenty of runway to make it through this macro environment. With that, I'll turn it back to Omar before we move on to questions.

總而言之，因為我認為重要的是要明確，我們有超過 1 億美元的流動性，沒有短期到期和任何槓桿契約下的大量淨空。我們相信我們有足夠的跑道來度過這個宏觀環境。有了這個，在我們繼續提問之前，我會把它轉回給奧馬爾。

Thank you, Bill. Overall, as I think about where we are now versus a few months ago, I would say the 2 biggest changes are, first, the war has escalated to another level with the blowing up of the North Stream pipeline and destruction of the bridge connecting Crimea to Russia. And second, the Fed has been much more aggressive in its efforts to combat inflation.

謝謝你，比爾。總的來說，當我考慮我們現在與幾個月前的情況時，我想說兩個最大的變化是，首先，隨著北溪管道的炸毀和連接克里米亞的橋樑的破壞，戰爭已經升級到另一個層次到俄羅斯。其次，美聯儲在打擊通脹方面更加積極。

The rate increases in hawkish rhetoric resulted in significant increases in the cost of capital, leading to massive wealth destruction in the capital markets and higher funding costs for businesses and consumers. The dollar has reached 20-year highs, causing issues for global trade and potentially leading to more financial instability across the globe. This is happening at a time when most indicators I can see in our business suggest inflation is rolling over and the economy in the U.S. is meaningfully weaker. Freight and logistics costs are substantially lower. The job market is not nearly as hot as it was a year ago, and our key input costs have stabilized and appear to be heading lower.

鷹派言論的加息導致資本成本顯著增加，導致資本市場大量財富遭到破壞，企業和消費者的融資成本更高。美元已達到 20 年來的高位，給全球貿易帶來問題，並可能導致全球範圍內更多的金融不穩定。這發生在我在我們的業務中看到的大多數指標都表明通貨膨脹正在結束並且美國經濟顯著疲軟的時候。貨運和物流成本大大降低。就業市場不像一年前那麼火爆，我們的關鍵投入成本已經穩定下來，而且似乎正在走低。

Overall, I would say the North American market deteriorated more than I was expecting going through the second half of the year. Activity levels over the past couple of months have been softer across the board, but particularly related to e-commerce, as I think consumers are stretched. Paper pricing in the region has stabilized and begun to roll over in my view, as overall demand for paper and corrugated is lower and substantial kraft paper supply is coming online at the end of this year and into next year.

總體而言，我會說北美市場在今年下半年的惡化程度超出了我的預期。過去幾個月的活動水平全面走軟，但與電子商務相關的活動尤其如此，因為我認為消費者已經捉襟見肘。在我看來，該地區的紙張價格已經穩定並開始回升，因為紙張和瓦楞紙的整體需求較低，大量牛皮紙供應將在今年年底和明年上線。

We're working with various mills on testing their capabilities and are pleased with the quality of product coming to market. As a result of the environment and increased industry supply, we expect paper pricing to become a tailwind going into next year, which we believe should enable us to claw back some of the margin we let go off temporarily as pricing reach levels that we did not believe were sustainable given the backdrop.

我們正在與多家工廠合作，測試他們的能力，並對上市的產品質量感到滿意。由於環境和行業供應增加，我們預計紙張定價將成為明年的順風，我們認為這應該使我們能夠收回我們暫時放棄的部分利潤，因為定價達到了我們沒有達到的水平相信在這種背景下是可持續的。

We're extremely focused on being aggressive to drive volumes and claw back our margin. We believe we are well positioned to do so given new business activity levels, new products we're introducing and efficiencies to be gained through our digital transformation as well as paper pricing relief. Europe is roughly in line to slightly worse than where I thought we would be at the end of July with the economic backdrop deteriorating further as natural gas spiked again to extreme levels as flows were completely shut off by Russia and the Nord Stream pipeline was attacked. Fortunately, storage level targets have been hit ahead of schedule as industry activity has been lower and LNG shipments have really ramped up. Pricing is still elevated, but is less than half of the extreme levels experienced in August.

我們非常專注於積極推動銷量並收回我們的利潤。我們相信，鑑於新的業務活動水平、我們正在推出的新產品以及通過我們的數字化轉型和紙張定價減免獲得的效率，我們有能力做到這一點。歐洲的情況與我認為 7 月底時的情況大致一致或稍差，經濟背景進一步惡化，因為天然氣再次飆升至極端水平，因為俄羅斯完全切斷了流量，北溪管道遭到襲擊。幸運的是，隨著行業活動的減少和液化天然氣出貨量的真正增加，存儲水平目標已經提前實現。定價仍處於高位，但還不到 8 月份極端水平的一半。

Activity levels, while not robust, remain [talking] we have endured. I've spent a lot of time in the region recently, and I'm in close contact with the team on the ground to keep also on how the energy crisis and war is impacting our suppliers, customers and the overall economy. Business at most end users is down meaningfully and all are very focused on cost and minimizing spend in the current environment. We feel good about our stable of paper suppliers in the region and our ability to continue to access the product we need.

活動水平雖然不強勁，但仍然[談論]我們已經忍受了。我最近在該地區呆了很多時間，我與當地團隊保持密切聯繫，以了解能源危機和戰爭如何影響我們的供應商、客戶和整體經濟。大多數最終用戶的業務明顯下降，並且所有人都非常關注成本並最大限度地減少當前環境中的支出。我們對我們在該地區穩定的紙張供應商以及我們繼續獲得所需產品的能力感到滿意。

Our Russian supply has been completely reallocated to other vendors in the region, and we have put in a great deal of effort to adjust our paper buys to minimize the risk of supplier disruption for this year and into 2023. We have reduced our exposure to German mills and allocated more resources to those mills we feel are best positioned to weather a choppy environment this winter. A substantial amount of virgin paper is sourced for mills that are self-sufficient from an energy standpoint, and we have spread out our recycled paper purchases across vendors in different countries with a focus on those vendors and countries best suited to endure the energy crisis.

我們的俄羅斯供應已完全重新分配給該地區的其他供應商，我們已付出大量努力來調整我們的紙質採購，以最大限度地降低今年和 2023 年供應商中斷的風險。我們減少了對德國的敞口工廠，並將更多資源分配給那些我們認為最有能力抵禦今年冬天波濤洶湧環境的工廠。從能源的角度來看，大量的原紙是為自給自足的工廠採購的，我們已經在不同國家的供應商之間分散採購再生紙，重點是那些最適合承受能源危機的供應商和國家。

Paper pricing in the region has been flat recently, albeit at high levels. We have seen some recycled paper suppliers start to offer lower prices, though as some of the inputs such as waste paper have come down recently, not dramatic moves, but a good sign. We're also aware of some virgin vendors sitting on a couple of months of inventory due to a slower economy. This has not flowed through to pricing at the moment, and I'm sure the mills will do their best through maintenance and shutdowns to preserve price, but I find this to be a good data point.

該地區的紙張價格最近持平，儘管處於高位。我們已經看到一些再生紙供應商開始提供較低的價格，儘管最近廢紙等一些投入品有所下降，這不是劇烈的舉動，而是一個好兆頭。我們還注意到，由於經濟放緩，一些新手供應商有幾個月的庫存。目前這還沒有影響到定價，我相信工廠會通過維護和停工盡最大努力來保持價格，但我發現這是一個很好的數據點。

The overall environment is a testing one, but we believe we are well positioned to endure the economic weakness and continue investing in the areas that will drive growth and maximize value over the longer term, such as automation and cold chain. I think it would be a mistake to pause on our investments here, particularly automation, as I believe that is the biggest opportunity at Ranpak over the next 5 to 10 years.

整體環境是一個考驗，但我們相信我們有能力忍受經濟疲軟，並繼續投資於能夠推動增長和實現長期價值最大化的領域，例如自動化和冷鏈。我認為暫停我們在這裡的投資是錯誤的，尤其是自動化，因為我相信這是 Ranpak 在未來 5 到 10 年內最大的機會。

We updated our guidance last quarter to reflect our expectations of the new reality. We still believe we are able to achieve the lower end of our adjusted EBITDA range. However, due to some additional pressure in Europe and the considerably weaker U.S. market compared to a few months ago, we expect our top line results to be slightly below the lower end of what we provided.

我們上個季度更新了我們的指南，以反映我們對新現實的期望。我們仍然相信我們能夠實現調整後 EBITDA 範圍的下限。然而，由於歐洲的一些額外壓力和與幾個月前相比相當疲軟的美國市場，我們預計我們的收入結果將略低於我們提供的下限。

The rapidly changing environment and the distribution model, which limits our visibility somewhat to end user activity has made forecasting more difficult than usual. Obviously, we are not happy with the results, but I assure you, we are laser focused on getting ourselves back on the path to achieving the results we know Ranpak is capable of.

快速變化的環境和分佈模型在某種程度上限制了我們對最終用戶活動的可見性，這使得預測比平時更加困難。顯然，我們對結果並不滿意，但我向你保證，我們非常專注於讓自己回到實現我們知道 Ranpak 能夠取得的結果的道路上。

While the near-term macro environment is a challenge, I'm optimistic about our path forward. Our input costs are moving in our favor in North America and have stabilized in Europe. We are near the end of the destocking that has plagued us all year in Europe and APAC. We have taken steps to reduce G&A while still investing in the business. We have done a complete digital transformation of the business and are now 10 months into our largest technology upgrades, which will start to show some benefits through efficiencies related to procurement, production and planning.

雖然近期的宏觀環境是一個挑戰，但我對我們的前進道路持樂觀態度。我們的投入成本在北美對我們有利，在歐洲則趨於穩定。在歐洲和亞太地區困擾我們一整年的去庫存即將結束。我們已採取措施減少 G&A，同時仍在對業務進行投資。我們已經完成了業務的全面數字化轉型，現在已經進行了 10 個月的最大技術升級，這將通過與採購、生產和規劃相關的效率開始顯示出一些好處。

We have made key investments in new products that will begin to contribute in 2023. And Overall, we've endured a myriad of headwinds this year, including our new systems go live in Q1. These will largely have been absorbed as we exit 2022, and many will be neutral to positive for us next year, while our comparisons become much more favorable.

我們對新產品進行了重要投資，這些產品將於 2023 年開始發揮作用。總的來說，我們今年經歷了無數逆風，包括我們的新系統將在第一季度上線。當我們 2022 年退出時，這些將大部分被吸收，明年許多對我們來說將是中性到積極的，而我們的比較變得更加有利。

We just celebrated the 50th anniversary of Ranpak founding in October. This business has a fantastic history with a long track record of growth, profitability and cash generation. We remain very confident in our outlook.

我們剛剛在 10 月慶祝了 Ranpak 成立 50 週年。該業務有著輝煌的歷史，在增長、盈利和現金產生方面有著長期的記錄。我們對我們的前景仍然非常有信心。

Now let's open the call up for some questions. Operator?

現在讓我們打開一些問題的電話。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi from Baird.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi 系列。

I guess first question on the machine placement, which is obviously very strong at 7% plus in the third quarter. How are you sort of managing the placement cadence with the world that we have today while also ensuring that you have acceptable return thresholds, just given the way you place the machines at no cost to customers?

我想第一個問題是機器放置，第三季度明顯非常強勁，超過 7%。您如何管理我們今天所擁有的世界的放置節奏，同時還確保您有可接受的退貨門檻，只是考慮到您免費放置機器的方式給客戶？

Sure. And as you may recall, Gansham, the cost to the end user is nothing, but our distribution partners do pay us a monthly fee for the machines. The way we've been thinking about it is -- it's, frankly, new business opportunities despite the weak environment has been pretty decent. Our trial activity is high throughout the year and kept improving as the year progressed.

當然。你可能還記得，Gansham，最終用戶的成本是零，但我們的分銷合作夥伴確實每月向我們支付機器費用。我們一直在思考它的方式是 - 坦率地說，儘管環境疲軟，但新的商機還是相當不錯的。我們的試用活動全年都很高，並且隨著時間的推移不斷改進。

Our wins have been real. What has been different is the ramp-up period with some of these new customers is a bit longer than what we've seen historically. And in some cases, the trial period is a bit longer. So what's going on is we are placing more and more machines that I would say the revenue is a little bit delayed.

我們的勝利是真實的。不同的是，其中一些新客戶的啟動期比我們以往看到的要長一些。在某些情況下，試用期會更長一些。所以發生的事情是我們正在放置越來越多的機器，我會說收入有點延遲。

And in a year where these new opportunities, new revenue is delayed a little bit and your existing accounts are consuming less paper and less volume, that double hit has really impacted revenue per machine quite a bit. We are very, very focused on some of the wins that we've had and that the ramp-up period will play as we expected. And I suspect that in the following months, you're going to see meaningful improvement in that metric as some of these wins ramp up get to, let's call it, normalized volumes. And we're not expecting crazy volumes given the world that we're in, but more normalized volumes, which I think will help showcase how displacement has been appropriate.

在這些新機會、新收入稍微延遲的一年裡，你現有的賬戶消耗的紙張和數量都在減少，這種雙重打擊確實對每台機器的收入產生了相當大的影響。我們非常、非常專注於我們已經取得的一些勝利，並且加速期將如我們預期的那樣進行。而且我懷疑在接下來的幾個月裡，隨著其中一些勝利的增加，你會看到該指標的有意義的改進，我們稱之為標準化數量。考慮到我們所處的世界，我們並不期待瘋狂的交易量，而是更規範化的交易量，我認為這將有助於展示置換是如何合適的。

Yes, that's helpful. And then for my second question, I was just going to ask on as you kind of think back to this year, I mean, obviously, a lot of different things occurred. You had the SAP implementation, you had price cost that was hugely unfavorable and in the macro environment, et cetera. As you think about 2023, is it less so about price cost and maybe that actually flipping positive? And then we just go back to what we normally worry about, which is the macro -- how are you approaching this -- how are you approaching the outlook for 2023 at this point?

是的，這很有幫助。然後對於我的第二個問題，我只是想問你今年回想起來，我的意思是，很明顯，發生了很多不同的事情。你有 SAP 實施，你有非常不利的價格成本，在宏觀環境中，等等。當你想到 2023 年時，價格成本是否會有所下降，也許實際上會轉為正數？然後我們回到我們通常擔心的問題，即宏觀——你如何看待這個問題——你目前如何看待 2023 年的前景？

Sure. Well, at this point, in terms of the SAP implementation, I expect that to deliver quite a bit of benefit for us. It already started in the last couple of months, and it will continue, and this is important because it's driving efficiencies, productivity measures, better measurement and faster measurement of KPIs, et cetera. So I think that implementation as we speak and going forward, is going to be a tailwind.

當然。那麼，在這一點上，就 SAP 實施而言，我希望它能為我們帶來很多好處。它已經在過去幾個月開始，並將繼續下去，這很重要，因為它正在推動效率、生產力措施、更好的衡量和更快的 KPI 衡量等。因此，我認為在我們所說的和未來的實施中，將成為順風。

In terms of price volume as well as cost dynamics, I think the initial benefit we're going to see is going to be on the cost side. It is evident in the U.S., given the increase in capacity is somewhere along 8% or so of increase in annual production volume on the kraft side that I think that supply/demand will help us get better pricing.

就價格量和成本動態而言，我認為我們將看到的最初好處將在成本方面。在美國很明顯，鑑於產能增加大約是牛皮紙年產量增加的 8% 左右，我認為供需將幫助我們獲得更好的定價。

In terms of Europe, what we're seeing so far is the stability to modest declines. The reason these declines in pricing for us are not more material, it's frankly related to the energy market. Nat gas has just been very volatile. So today, it's much better than where it was a few months ago, but it's going to depend on what kind of winter we have and who knows whether prices spike from here or they stay where they are or go down. And given that lack of visibility, I think mills have sort of been disciplined speaking to the existing pricing formula.

就歐洲而言，我們目前看到的是穩定到適度下降。這些價格下降對我們來說並不重要，坦率地說，這與能源市場有關。天然氣剛剛非常不穩定。所以今天，它比幾個月前好得多，但這將取決於我們有什麼樣的冬天，誰知道價格是從這裡飆升還是保持在原位或下跌。鑑於缺乏可見性，我認為工廠在談到現有的定價公式時有點受到紀律處分。

So depending on nat gas, we may see some relief, but the weakness in Europe in volume in terms of corrugated and kraft players, that's going to also help us. So overall, as I look at '23, I think there is a real case to be made that on the COGS side, and our biggest input there is paper that we're going to see some relief, maybe meaningful relief in America, and let's call it, modest relief in Europe.

因此，取決於天然氣，我們可能會看到一些緩解，但歐洲在瓦楞紙和牛皮紙玩家方面的銷量疲軟，這也會幫助我們。所以總的來說，當我看 23 年時，我認為在 COGS 方面有一個真實的案例，我們最大的投入是我們將在美國看到一些緩解，也許是有意義的緩解，並且讓我們稱之為，歐洲的適度緩解。

On the volume side, well, the first thing is given the top of year we've had this year, as we lap, we're going to have easier comparisons. We really have invested quite a bit this year in new products and these new products, many of them are coming to market later this year and early in 2023, and that should impact our volume as well.

在數量方面，首先要考慮的是我們今年取得的年度最佳成績，因為我們在跑圈時，我們將進行更容易的比較。今年我們確實在新產品和這些新產品上投入了大量資金，其中許多產品將在今年晚些時候和 2023 年初上市，這也會影響我們的銷量。

In terms of our pricing to our customers, I suspect we're going to hold these prices until we get more clarity. I would not be surprised if we get a lot of relief in terms of our COGS and our paper supply. If we pass some of that to our customers as well, given the inflationary spikes the last couple of years. So if you put this whole picture together, we feel 2023 is going to be materially better than 2022, which has been a tough year for us.

就我們對客戶的定價而言，我懷疑我們會保持這些價格，直到我們變得更加清晰為止。如果我們在 COGS 和紙張供應方面得到很大緩解，我不會感到驚訝。如果我們也將其中的一些傳遞給我們的客戶，考慮到過去幾年的通脹飆升。因此，如果將整個畫面放在一起，我們認為 2023 年會比 2022 年好得多，後者對我們來說是艱難的一年。

Okay. And just a car a question for Bill. Bill, the currency adjusted you're referring to on EBITDA was roughly -- was $1.9 million. Is that right for the third quarter?

好的。只是汽車是比爾的問題。比爾，你指的 EBITDA 調整後的貨幣大約是 190 萬美元。這適合第三季度嗎？

Yes, Ghansham, that's correct. And so just for reference in the release and in the presentation. We've got the new format, which we'll break it out and give you the exact impact on the EBITDA. And then we also, at the end, provided the product on that as well, just so you can have some accountability.

是的，Ghansham，這是正確的。因此僅供在發布和演示中參考。我們已經有了新的格式，我們將把它分解並為您提供對 EBITDA 的確切影響。最後，我們還提供了產品，這樣你就可以承擔一些責任。

Okay. Great. See you in the conference next week. Thank you.

好的。偉大的。下週會議見。謝謝你。

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Palm from Craig-Hallum Capital.

你的下一個問題來自 Craig-Hallum Capital 的 Greg Palm。

I guess I just wanted to first follow up on that previous dialogue. I mean is there any way you can just sort of quantify what the headwind, the price volume or the price headwind has been this year? I think, Omar, maybe you just said that you expect 2023 to be materially better than 2022. I'm guessing you meant on sort of a margin EBITDA basis. But just any way to quantify what that headwind has been this year, all else equal, if everything maybe starts to normalize in 2023?

我想我只是想先跟進之前的對話。我的意思是，有什麼方法可以量化今年的逆風、價格量或價格逆風？我想，奧馬爾，也許你只是說你預計 2023 年會比 2022 年好得多。我猜你的意思是在某種程度上以利潤率 EBITDA 為基礎。但是，如果一切都可能在 2023 年開始正常化，那麼有什麼方法可以量化今年的逆風？

Sure. I'll start, and then I'll turn it over to Bill to give you maybe more precise numbers. But I think the headwind in the past, call it, 10 months or so. And you're right, I was referring to gross margin and EBITDA in terms of my outlook for 2023 is probably somewhere between 600 to 800 bps that hit our margin, mostly frankly, going to paper mills. And many of them that report publicly, I think you'll see they're up 500 to 800 bps this past year in terms of gross margin.

當然。我會開始，然後我會把它交給比爾給你可能更精確的數字。但我認為過去的逆風，可以稱之為 10 個月左右。你是對的，就我對 2023 年的展望而言，我指的是毛利率和 EBITDA 可能在 600 到 800 個基點之間，這會影響我們的利潤率，坦率地說，主要是造紙廠。他們中的許多人公開報告，我想你會看到他們在過去一年的毛利率方面上升了 500 到 800 個基點。

So given the energy situation given earlier on in the year, supply/demand dynamic when demand was still decent and supply was a bit more limited, you effectively have that much of gross margin, leave our complex and go into the mills and the suppliers. But again, I'll have Bill maybe give you more precise numbers.

因此，考慮到今年早些時候給出的能源狀況，當需求仍然不錯且供應有點有限時的供需動態，你實際上擁有那麼多的毛利率，離開我們的綜合設施並進入工廠和供應商。但同樣，我會讓 Bill 給你更精確的數字。

Sure. Yes, Greg, Omar, was actually right in line. So it was year-to-date, the hit to gross margin has been about 720 basis points based on just material cost alone. We've gotten a little bit of help on the labor and overhead. But between the materials cost being 720 bps, automation, about 1 point and then depreciation to over another point to get to (inaudible) year-to-date.

當然。是的，格雷格和奧馬爾實際上排在了一起。因此，今年迄今為止，僅基於材料成本，毛利率受到的打擊約為 720 個基點。我們在人工和間接費用方面得到了一些幫助。但在材料成本為 720 個基點、自動化、大約 1 個點之間，然後折舊超過另一個點，以達到（聽不清）年初至今。

If you look at where we're working the quarter though, the headwinds, as we mentioned in the earlier remarks, was less onerous as we're beginning to lap some of these increases, which really started to ramp up in Q3 and Q4 of last year. So in the quarter, it was about 500 basis points of a headwind. So the rate of change is improving there.

不過，如果你看看我們在本季度的工作地點，正如我們在之前的評論中提到的那樣，不利因素並不那麼嚴重，因為我們開始應對其中的一些增長，這些增長在 2018 年第三季度和第四季度真正開始上升去年。因此，在本季度，逆風約為 500 個基點。所以那裡的變化率正在提高。

Understood. Okay. That's helpful. And do you expect that you can recoup most or all of that in 2023? I know super uncertain environment still. And I guess just talking specifically about Europe, if we assume that gas prices don't spike up again, is there any reason why you wouldn't see a greater relief in kraft paper prices over there just given the dramatic change just in the last month or 2 of prices over there in gas?

明白了。好的。這很有幫助。你預計你能在 2023 年收回大部分或全部嗎？我仍然知道超級不確定的環境。而且我想只是專門談論歐洲，如果我們假設天然氣價格不會再次飆升，那麼考慮到去年發生的巨大變化，你是否有任何理由看不到那裡的牛皮紙價格有更大的緩解那邊的天然氣價格一個月或 2 個月？

So on the second question, Greg, if it stays at these levels or improves a little bit, we will get meaningful relief you're spot on in terms of pricing and that will help our margin profile quite a bit. The reason we are not sort of counting on that is, frankly, we are in no position to say what type of winter Europe is going to have or where nat gas is going to end up.

因此，關於第二個問題，格雷格，如果它保持在這些水平或有所改善，我們將在定價方面得到有意義的緩解，這將對我們的利潤率狀況有很大幫助。我們不指望這一點的原因是，坦率地說，我們無法說歐洲將有什麼樣的冬季或天然氣將在何處結束。

Every time we got relief the last few months, it was followed by a spike. So we're more just taking a wait and see approach. But if we assume prices stay here, if we assume winter is reasonable, then yes, you can assume we will get much better relief than what we're talking about. Now as far as recouping all of sort of the margin erosion that we experienced this year, I would say I'm more comfortable saying, I believe based on what I know right now, we will recover most of it. I'm not sitting here counting on recovering all of it. I do think we will deliver a much stronger margin profile in 2023, and that the majority of what you saw us give up this year, we will be able to recover.

在過去的幾個月裡，每當我們得到緩解時，緊接著就會出現飆升。所以我們更多的只是採取觀望的態度。但如果我們假設價格保持不變，如果我們假設冬天是合理的，那麼是的，你可以假設我們會得到比我們所說的更好的緩解。現在就收回我們今年經歷的所有利潤率侵蝕而言，我想說我更願意說，我相信根據我現在所知道的，我們將收回大部分。我不會坐在這裡指望恢復所有這些。我確實認為我們將在 2023 年提供更強勁的利潤率，而且你看到我們今年放棄的大部分內容，我們將能夠恢復。

Got it. I mean is it as easy as just trying to figure out the implied EBITDA margin for this year and adding 400 to 500 basis points next year. Is that sort of what the math implies?

知道了。我的意思是，這是否就像試圖計算出今年隱含的 EBITDA 利潤率並在明年增加 400 到 500 個基點一樣簡單。這就是數學所暗示的嗎？

I think directionally, that's correct, math. And the reason I get there is, obviously, we talked about paper and paper supply and costing. So that's the biggest factor for us given how big paper is in our COGS. But things like freight, trucking, container costs, ballet costs -- all these things are trending the right way, giving us some relief. And then we have been just very disciplined in this new world on our SG&A. So if you add it all up, I think directionally, you're right, Greg.

我有方向地思考，這是正確的，數學。顯然，我到達那裡的原因是我們討論了紙張和紙張供應以及成本核算。因此，考慮到我們的 COGS 中的紙張有多大，這對我們來說是最大的因素。但是諸如貨運、卡車運輸、集裝箱成本、芭蕾舞成本之類的事情——所有這些事情都在朝著正確的方向發展，讓我們鬆了一口氣。然後我們在 SG&A 的這個新世界中一直非常自律。所以如果你把所有這些加起來，我認為方向性的，你是對的，格雷格。

Okay. All right. I'll leave it there. Best of luck.

好的。好的。我會把它留在那裡。祝你好運。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Adam Samuelson。

So I guess, I wanted to come back to the volume question a little bit. And you provided some context earlier, Omar, around some of the newer placements having lower productivity, lower throughput. But I guess, how are you -- a, how are you evaluating the payback and ROI potential of those placements if they're taking less volumes than maybe placements 2 or 3 years ago did?

所以我想，我想稍微回到音量問題。奧馬爾，你之前提供了一些背景信息，圍繞一些生產率較低、吞吐量較低的新安置點。但我想，你怎麼樣 - a，如果這些展示位置的數量比 2 或 3 年前的展示位置少，你如何評估這些展示位置的回報和投資回報率潛力？

And then just more broadly, I mean, the volumes in total down 27% in the quarter with installed base that's up kind of the installed base that's been in place for longer than a year. Clearly, the paper per machine is down pretty considerably. Just do you think that's purely just destocking on the part of your distributors and customers, such that the end consumption is not down anywhere near that level? Or what do you think the -- what confidence do you have that you're seeing a stabilization in paper throughput?

然後更廣泛地說，我的意思是，本季度總銷量下降了 27%，安裝基數比已經存在一年多的安裝基數有所增加。顯然，每台機器的紙張數量下降了很多。您是否認為這純粹只是您的分銷商和客戶的去庫存化，以至於最終消費不會下降到接近該水平的任何地方？或者你認為 - 你有什麼信心看到紙張吞吐量穩定？

Sure. And Adam, I'll start and then also have Bill chime in. There's no doubt in the volume declines, a big chunk of it, not all of it, continues to be destocking, and we are trying our best to triangulate with our distribution partners where they are in that cycle. We believe in the majority of our geographies as we speak now. The bulk of that is behind us. There's still a couple of pockets where we think there may be some destocking, but take it took us a long time, almost 9, 10 months to get here, but destocking is largely behind us, and that's a big chunk of the 27 points. It's not the only piece, the other piece is frankly just weaker economic activity in e-commerce as well as in some industrial customers, in particular, in Europe, in e-commerce, in the Nordic region, in places like Poland and Germany, the declines have been quite severe. We have some facilities that were running 7 days a week, 24 hours that today run a few hours a day and 4, 5 days a week in places like Poland and Eastern Europe that are close to the war, and that has really impacted volume. And again, Bill can give you more specific math. So that's the volume picture.

當然。亞當，我將開始，然後還有比爾插話。毫無疑問，銷量下降，其中很大一部分，而不是全部，繼續去庫存，我們正在盡最大努力對我們的分銷進行三角測量他們在那個週期中的合作夥伴。正如我們現在所說的，我們相信我們的大部分地區。其中大部分都在我們身後。我們認為仍有幾個口袋可能會去庫存，但我們花了很長時間，差不多 9、10 個月才到達這裡，但去庫存基本上已經過去了，這是 27 個點中的很大一部分。這不是唯一的一部分，坦率地說，另一部分只是電子商務以及一些工業客戶的經濟活動較弱，特別是在歐洲、電子商務、北歐地區、波蘭和德國等地，跌幅相當嚴重。我們有一些設施每週運行 7 天，今天每天運行幾個小時 24 小時，在波蘭和東歐等接近戰爭的地方每週運行 4、5 天，這確實影響了產量。再一次，比爾可以給你更具體的數學。這就是體積圖。

In terms of how it relates with machine placement and how we think about it, effectively, the payback now is a little bit prolonged by a few months. as some of these customers ramp up. So if you look at our placement in the last, I'm going to call it 6 months, it's been decent. In many cases, we're putting converters either new facilities for existing customers or new customers. And we know from them that it's going to take them a little bit of time to ramp up.

就它與機器放置的關係以及我們如何看待它而言，實際上，現在的投資回收期稍微延長了幾個月。隨著其中一些客戶的增加。所以如果你看看我們最後的位置，我會稱之為 6 個月，它很不錯。在許多情況下，我們會為現有客戶或新客戶提供新的加工設施。我們從他們那裡知道，他們需要一點時間來提升。

Why? In some cases, Adam, they're working through inventory of other products they used to use that they still have. So they're destocking airbags or bubble on-demand or stuff like that before they switch. And we're putting our solution in there. And the reason we're putting it in there is when you win a mandate and customers are saying, "Come place the equipment, I'm going to start incrementally switching. We will we are comfortable delaying our ramp-up by a few months in order to sort of win that account. But if you look at the impact of that from a volume standpoint, it's delaying the ramp-up one; and then two, it's increasing our payback by a few months. And the combination of that is hurting the revenue per machine.

為什麼？在某些情況下，亞當，他們正在清點他們曾經使用過但仍然擁有的其他產品。因此，他們在轉換之前會減少安全氣囊或按需泡沫或類似產品的庫存。我們將我們的解決方案放在那裡。我們把它放在那裡的原因是當你贏得授權並且客戶說，“過來放置設備，我將開始逐步切換。我們將很樂意將我們的升級推遲幾個月為了贏得那個客戶。但是，如果你從數量的角度來看它的影響，它會延遲增加一個；然後兩個，它會增加我們幾個月的投資回報。兩者的結合是損害每台機器的收入。

So if what I'm saying is correct, this thing is going to correct itself in the next few months where some of these new accounts are going to ramp up and get to the levels that we think are appropriate given the number of shipments that they're doing, and that's how we decided to place the number of machines. So we think that's a temporary thing. We think the destocking is largely behind us with a few exceptions. So these 2 things should help us going forward. The one thing that is still unclear is given the macro backdrop, existing accounts where is the right normal level of volume for them? Are the last few months sort of exhibiting too much pressure and we're going to normalize better volume with these accounts? Or is that the new normal, given the macro economy and where people want to spend that piece with existing accounts is the harder piece to forecast to predict. But we think the other 2 pieces are going to start helping us in the near future.

因此，如果我說的是正確的，那麼這件事將在接下來的幾個月內自行糾正，其中一些新客戶將增加並達到我們認為合適的水平，因為他們的出貨量很大正在做，這就是我們決定放置機器數量的方式。所以我們認為這是暫時的。除了少數例外，我們認為去庫存基本上已經過去了。所以這兩件事應該有助於我們前進。仍然不清楚的一件事是在宏觀背景下，現有賬戶的正常交易量水平在哪裡？過去幾個月是否表現出太大的壓力，我們將通過這些賬戶使更好的交易量正常化？或者，考慮到宏觀經濟以及人們希望用現有賬戶花費那部分錢的新常態是更難預測的部分。但我們認為其他 2 件作品將在不久的將來開始幫助我們。

Bill, I don't know if you want to add something?

比爾，我不知道你是否想補充什麼？

I think you covered the big things, right? I think the math is from the existing base when you've got 100 -- you come into the year with 130,000 machines in the field, yes, your new placements are up. But when you've got 130,000 already out there and you're placing 7,000 year-to-date, when the volumes are down at the existing account base, it's tough to overcome that math, right? So the volumes are down meaningfully at a number of end users, particularly in the e-commerce and you can see that in the Void-fill and the Wrapping numbers in particular, really driving that, which is impacting, obviously, the growth for this year.

我認為你涵蓋了大事，對吧？我認為當你有 100 台時，數學是從現有的基礎上得出的——你進入這一年時現場有 130,000 台機器，是的，你的新位置已經增加。但是，當你已經有 130,000 人，而你今年迄今已經有 7,000 人時，當現有賬戶基礎上的交易量下降時，很難克服這個數學問題，對吧？因此，許多最終用戶的銷量顯著下降，尤其是在電子商務中，你可以看到，尤其是在 Void-fill 和 Wrapping 數字中，真正推動了這一點，這顯然影響了這一增長年。

The data that we have implies that right now, the pallets per machine are down below where they were in 2019 levels, we wouldn't expect that to persist over the longer term. We would expect some sort of a bounce back. It's just, I think, where we are right now between the destocking and the lower consumption with the demand pull forward in Void-fill and Wrapping that's been painful for us this year.

我們掌握的數據表明，目前每台機器的托盤數量低於 2019 年的水平，我們預計這種情況不會長期持續。我們預計會出現某種反彈。我認為，這只是我們現在處於去庫存和較低消費之間的位置，而今年對我們來說是痛苦的空隙填充和包裝需求拉動。

But as far as overall new machine placement, the one thing that I'll emphasize is we are very discerning about the new machine placement. We want to make sure we're getting paid back adequately on the capital that we put out there. That capital is precious to us. So we want to make sure that we're getting the adequate returns there. We're also pushing folks in the field to have the conversations with their distributor partners and their end users to understand, is there anything structural in the business to indicate that they may not need as many machines that they currently have, right? Do they get a number of machines last year. thinking that their business was going to continue on the same trajectory as was in 2021. And maybe do we take some of those machines back and deploy them elsewhere. For us, that would be a much more efficient use of capital. And that's really a big area of focus for us right now.

但就整體新機佈局而言，我要強調的一件事是我們對新機佈局非常挑剔。我們希望確保我們投入的資本得到充分的回報。這筆資金對我們來說很寶貴。所以我們想確保我們在那裡獲得足夠的回報。我們也在推動該領域的人們與他們的分銷商合作夥伴和他們的最終用戶進行對話，以了解，業務中是否有任何結構表明他們可能不需要他們目前擁有的那麼多機器，對嗎？他們去年有很多機器嗎？認為他們的業務將繼續沿著與 2021 年相同的軌跡發展。也許我們會把其中一些機器拿回來並將它們部署到其他地方。對我們來說，這將更有效地利用資本。這對我們來說確實是一個很大的關注領域。

Okay. That's all helpful color. If I could just ask a follow-up on the price/cost question. And really, just thinking historically, the company would procure the large majority of its kraft paper on an annual basis so you had good visibility to your paper cost for the following kind of 12 months. Do you think that you actually go back to that kind of procurement and pricing strategy into 2023? Or given kind of some of the macro uncertainty, especially in Europe that it might be difficult to secure volumes at a fixed price for 12 months?

好的。這都是有用的顏色。如果我可以就價格/成本問題提出後續問題。事實上，從歷史上看，該公司每年都會採購大部分牛皮紙，因此您可以很好地了解接下來 12 個月的紙張成本。你認為你真的會回到 2023 年的那種採購和定價策略嗎？或者考慮到某種宏觀不確定性，尤其是在歐洲，可能難以以固定價格確保 12 個月的銷量？

So as we speak, Adam, we're negotiating our 2023 agreements. And in many cases, we will be pushing for annual. I will tell you, just knowing the way the world is working right now and how volatile energy is. I suspect we might succeed in maybe having, call it, a 6 months arrangement with some mills and that we revisit in 6 months depending on pricing, et cetera. I think expecting all mills to agree to annual agreements would be unrealistic. Some will. It depends on their energy stability and their energy situation and some, as you know, might be vertically integrated and so on. But I think in general, expect that in 2023, there will be maybe one reset or something along these lines. At least that's what we're attempting to do.

因此，正如我們所說，亞當，我們正在談判我們的 2023 年協議。在許多情況下，我們將推動年度。我會告訴你，只要知道世界現在的運作方式以及能量的波動性。我懷疑我們可能會成功地與一些工廠達成 6 個月的安排，並且我們會在 6 個月內根據定價等重新考慮。我認為期望所有工廠都同意年度協議是不現實的。有些會。這取決於他們的能量穩定性和他們的能量狀況，如你所知，有些可能是垂直整合的等等。但我認為總的來說，預計在 2023 年，可能會有一次重置或類似的事情。至少那是我們正在嘗試做的。

Got it. That's all really helpful color. I'll pass it on.

知道了。這都是非常有用的顏色。我會傳下去的。

Your next question comes from the line of Stefanos Crist from CJS Securities.

你的下一個問題來自 CJS Securities 的 Stefanos Crist。

Can you just talk about what you're seeing in the competitive environment versus other paper providers as well as plastic?

你能談談你在競爭環境中看到的與其他紙張供應商以及塑料供應商相比的情況嗎？

So from my seat, I am not seeing a switch from paper to plastic. Plastic has also gone up in pricing. You hear cases here and there. It's nothing out of the ordinary. I don't think we're seeing a reversal of the trend. And I know a lot of people love to talk about that, and are customers willing to pay for sustainability? That has not been a problem, certainly not one that is noteworthy.

所以從我的座位上看，我沒有看到從紙質到塑料的轉變。塑料的價格也上漲了。你在這里和那裡聽到案件。這沒什麼不尋常的。我認為我們沒有看到趨勢的逆轉。我知道很多人都喜歡談論這個，客戶願意為可持續性買單嗎？這不是問題，當然不是值得注意的問題。

In terms of paper competition, paper competition is increasing. We've been in a good space and a good industry before this year and competitors are trying to innovate and add to their solutions. That's something that we're fully aware of. And frankly, we're investing, we're innovating. We're adding a lot of new products, and we think we're ahead of the curve.

在論文競爭方面，論文競爭日趨激烈。今年之前，我們一直處於一個良好的空間和一個良好的行業中，競爭對手正在努力創新並增加他們的解決方案。這是我們完全清楚的事情。坦率地說，我們正在投資，我們正在創新。我們正在添加很多新產品，我們認為我們處於領先地位。

In terms of our market share within the paper segment [stat], it continues to be stable. We don't see us losing accounts. We don't see big attrition. We see volume declines at our existing accounts, but we're not seeing attrition where accounts are saying, "I'm switching away. And by the way, our wins are bigger than our attrition. But the problem is, as I said, our wins are now slow to sort of get to the level of volume that we would like to see. So the overall picture for us in terms of our market share feels somewhat stable. It's just we as a company are over-indexed, frankly, to e-commerce and to Europe, and these have not been good places to be in the majority of this year. And that's the stuff that I think has hurt our volume a little bit more.

就我們在紙張領域的市場份額 [stat] 而言，它繼續保持穩定。我們沒有看到我們丟失帳戶。我們沒有看到大的減員。我們看到現有客戶的交易量下降，但我們沒有看到客戶說“我要換掉了。順便說一句，我們的勝利比我們的減員更大。但問題是，正如我所說，我們的勝利現在有點慢，無法達到我們希望看到的數量水平。因此，就我們的市場份額而言，我們的整體情況感覺有些穩定。坦率地說，只是我們作為一家公司的指數過高，到電子商務和歐洲，在今年的大部分時間裡，這些都不是好地方。我認為這就是對我們的銷量造成更大影響的東西。

That's great color. And just a follow-up. Can you just talk about the visibility you have for the holiday season? I know we're already a month into Q4, but do those deliveries for your customers, are they starting already? Or are you just having conversations? Just how should we think about that?

那是很棒的顏色。只是一個跟進。您能談談假期期間的知名度嗎？我知道我們已經進入第四季度一個月了，但是為您的客戶送貨，他們已經開始了嗎？或者你們只是在聊天？我們應該如何考慮呢？

It's tough to predict the holiday season. I'll be honest with you, because it's still relatively early. Yes, we have some visibility from the month of October, but November and December are really important months. And this year, forecasting has been very, very difficult. We're optimistic about the peak season. But I would say given the world that we're in and how quickly things change, I'd rather just wait and see how the next few weeks evolve before we see sort of the real volume trends and so on. So I think it's tough to give you a clear answer. I think it's too early in the peak season stuff.

很難預測假期。老實說，因為現在還比較早。是的，我們從 10 月份開始就有一些能見度，但 11 月和 12 月確實是重要的月份。今年，預測非常非常困難。我們對旺季持樂觀態度。但我想說，鑑於我們所處的世界以及事情變化的速度有多快，我寧願等著看接下來幾週的發展情況，然後再看到真正的交易量趨勢等等。所以我認為很難給你一個明確的答案。我認為在旺季的事情上還為時過早。

And there are no further questions at this time. Mr. Bill Drew, I'll turn the call back over to you for some final closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。 Bill Drew 先生，我會將電話轉回給您，請您作最後的結束語。

Thank you, [Robert], and thank you all for joining us today. We'll see you next quarter.

謝謝你，[羅伯特]，感謝大家今天加入我們。我們下個季度見。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。