Plains All American Pipeline LP (PAA) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the PAA and PAGP Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 PAA 和 PAGP 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Blake Fernandez, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係副總裁布萊克費爾南德斯 (Blake Fernandez)。請繼續。

Thank you, Daniel. Good morning, and welcome to Plains All American Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Today's slide presentation is posted on the Investor Relations website under the News and Events section at plains.com. An audio replay will also be available following today's call. Important disclosures regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures are provided on Slide 2. An overview of today's call is provided on Slide 3. A condensed consolidating balance sheet for PAGP and other reference materials are in the appendix.

謝謝你，丹尼爾。早安，歡迎參加 Plains All American 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天的幻燈片簡報發佈在 plains.com 投資者關係網站的新聞和活動部分下。今天的電話會議後還將提供音訊重播。有關前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則財務指標的重要揭露請參閱投影片 2。投影片 3 提供了今天電話會議的概述。附錄中提供了 PAGP 的簡明合併資產負債表和其他參考資料。

Today's call will be hosted by Willie Chiang, Chairman and CEO; and Al Swanson, Executive Vice President and CFO; as well as other members of our management team.

今天的電話會議將由董事長兼執行長 Willie Jiang 主持；執行副總裁兼財務長阿爾‧斯旺森 (Al Swanson)；以及我們管理團隊的其他成員。

With that, I will turn the call over to Willie.

這樣，我就把電話轉給威利。

Thank you, Blake. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Today, we reported fourth quarter and full year results exceeding expectations in both our Crude Oil and NGL segments. We've made considerable progress towards our long-term strategy, while demonstrating continuous execution of our goals and initiatives.

謝謝你，布萊克。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。今天，我們公佈了原油和液化天然氣業務第四季度和全年業績均超乎預期。我們在長期策略方面取得了顯著進展，同時展示了我們目標和舉措的持續執行。

In summary, fourth quarter and full year adjusted EBITDA attributable to PAA was $737 million and $2.71 billion, respectively, with full year results exceeding the midpoint of our initial guidance by approximately $210 million or 8%. We lowered our long-term leverage ratio target range to 3.25x to 3.75x, and we ended 2023 with a leverage ratio of 3.1x. Our efforts to enhance the balance sheet were recognized by the credit rating agencies with 2 recent upgrades to mid-BBB.

總而言之，第四季度和全年調整後歸屬於 PAA 的 EBITDA 分別為 7.37 億美元和 27.1 億美元，全年業績比我們最初指導的中點高出約 2.1 億美元或 8%。我們將長期槓桿率目標範圍下調至 3.25 倍至 3.75 倍，2023 年末槓桿率為 3.1 倍。我們改善資產負債表的努力得到了信用評級機構的認可，最近兩次升級至中 BBB。

Additionally, we completed several win-win strategic transactions in both of our -- both in our Crude Oil and NGL segments and including 3 Permian gathering bolt-on transactions, the sale of our interest in a Canadian fractionation facility and the recent divestiture of approximately 600 crude oil railcars for proceeds of approximately $40 million. These transactions are representative of our ongoing efforts to optimize our asset base and streamline our operations, while generating attractive returns for unitholders.

此外，我們在原油和液化天然氣領域完成了幾項雙贏的戰略交易，包括 3 項二疊紀收集補充交易、出售我們在加拿大分餾設施的權益以及最近剝離約600 輛原油鐵路車，收益約4000 萬美元。這些交易代表了我們不斷努力優化我們的資產基礎和簡化我們的運營，同時為單位持有人帶來有吸引力的回報。

The strong EBITDA results, along with the recent bolt-on transactions and lower leverage, helped underpin a $0.20 per unit annualized increase in our common unit distribution level, which will be payable later this month, and represents a 19% increase in the annualized distribution relative to 2023 levels.

強勁的EBITDA 業績，加上最近的附加交易和較低的槓桿率，幫助支撐了我們的普通單位分配水平每單位年化0.20 美元的增長，該水平將於本月晚些時候支付，代表年化分配成長19%相對於 2023 年的水準。

Turning to Slide 4, it should come as no surprise that our 2024 key focus areas remain very consistent with last year's. Our strong operational and equity performance over the past year only serves to reaffirm our strategy, most notably, our focus on generating meaningful free cash flow, our commitment to capital discipline, and a clear and concise capital allocation framework, focused on increasing return of capital to equity holders, while maintaining a strong balance sheet and financial flexibility.

轉向投影片 4，我們 2024 年的重點領域與去年保持非常一致也就不足為奇了。我們過去一年強勁的營運和股權表現只是重申了我們的策略，最值得注意的是，我們專注於產生有意義的自由現金流，我們對資本紀律的承諾，以及專注於增加資本回報的清晰簡潔的資本配置框架股東，同時保持強大的資產負債表和財務靈活性。

As highlighted on Slide 5, we expect adjusted EBITDA attributable to PAA of $2.625 billion to $2.725 billion for 2024. This reflects year-over-year growth in our Crude Oil segment, underpinned by continued Permian production and tariff volume growth, as well as contributions from recent bolt-on acquisitions. Our guidance also factors in a reduction in our NGL segment, primarily driven by lower forecasted frac spreads year-over-year.

正如幻燈片5 所強調的，我們預計2024 年PAA 的調整後EBITDA 為26.25 億美元至27.25 億美元。這反映了我們原油業務的同比增長，這得益於二疊紀產量和關稅量的持續增長以及貢獻來自最近的補強收購。我們的指引也考慮了液化天然氣業務的減少，這主要是由於預測的壓裂價差年減所致。

As shown on Slide 6, we anticipate 2024 Permian crude oil production growth to be between 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day exit to exit, with the Delaware Basin driving the majority of the growth. Our updated forecast assumes an average of 300 to 320 horizontal rigs. And as part of our routine fundamentals forecasting process, we will continue monitoring our assumptions as the year progresses. Our Permian JV system is well positioned with more than 4.4 million long-term dedicated acres and operating leverage to provide customers with midstream solutions from the wellhead to demand centers.

如幻燈片 6 所示，我們預計 2024 年二疊紀原油產量成長將在每天 20 萬至 30 萬桶之間，其中特拉華盆地將推動大部分成長。我們最新的預測假設平均有 300 至 320 個水平鑽孔機。作為我們常規基本面預測過程的一部分，我們將隨著時間的推移繼續監控我們的假設。我們的二疊紀合資企業系統地理位置優越，擁有超過 440 萬英畝的長期專用土地和營運槓桿，可為客戶提供從井口到需求中心的中游解決方案。

As we show on Slide 7, we expect to capture approximately 275,000 barrels a day of incremental gathering tariff volumes for the full year 2024. For our long-haul systems, we continue to expect high utilization on our [Corpus-bound] assets, a volume step-up on Basin Pipeline and an MVC step-up on Wink to Webster.

如幻燈片 7 所示，我們預計 2024 年全年的關稅增量將達到每天約 275,000 桶。對於我們的長途系統，我們繼續預計我們的 [Corpus-bound] 資產將實現高利用率，在 Basin Pipeline 上的體積提升和Wink to Webster 上的MVC 提升。

In our NGL segment, we continue to focus on optimizing the business and improving the durability of our earnings. During 2023, we closed the sale of our JV interest in Keyera Fort Sask, and we sanctioned a 30,000 barrel-a-day debottleneck of the Plains Fort Sask complex. The debottleneck project remains on budget and unchanged in service date of mid-2025.

在 NGL 部門，我們繼續專注於優化業務並提高獲利的持久性。 2023 年，我們完成了對 Keyera Fort Sask 合資企業權益的出售，並批准了 Plains Fort Sask 綜合體日產 30,000 桶的產能。此去瓶頸工程仍維持在預算範圍內，且服務日期不變，即 2025 年中期。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Al.

說完，我會把電話轉給阿爾。

Thanks, Willie. We reported fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $737 million, which includes Crude Oil segment benefits from Canadian market-based opportunities and increased volumes across our systems, primarily in the Permian, along with NGL segment benefits from stronger seasonal sales and higher realized frac spreads. For the full year, we reported adjusted EBITDA of $2.71 billion. Strong full year performance was primarily driven by higher realized frac spreads, market-based opportunities, strong base business performance and contributions from bolt-on acquisitions. Slides 13 and 14 in today's appendix contains walks, which provide details on our fourth quarter performance.

謝謝，威利。我們報告第四季度調整後EBITDA 為7.37 億美元，其中包括原油部門受益於加拿大市場的機會和我們系統（主要是二疊紀）產量的增加，以及NGL 部門受益於強勁的季節性銷售和更高的已實現壓裂價差。全年調整後 EBITDA 為 27.1 億美元。強勁的全年業績主要得益於更高的已實現壓裂價差、基於市場的機會、強勁的基礎業務業績以及補強收購的貢獻。今天附錄中的幻燈片 13 和 14 包含步行，其中提供了有關我們第四季度業績的詳細資訊。

A summary of our 2024 guidance and key guidance assumptions are on slide 8. Looking at 2024 compared to 2023, and as illustrated on the -- by the EBITDA walk on Slide 9, we expect adjusted EBITDA of $2.625 billion to $2.725 billion with year-over-year growth in our Crude Oil segment, partially offsetting commodity price headwinds in our NGL segment. Growth in our Crude Oil segment is primarily driven by anticipated tariff volume increases, higher fees from tariff escalators and full year contributions from bolt-on acquisitions. This is partially offset by our assumption of fewer market-based opportunities. We expect lower year-over-year NGL segment-adjusted EBITDA, driven by lower forecasted frac spreads, partially offset by higher C3+ spec product sales in 2024. I would note that our C3+ spec product sales volumes are approximately 90% hedged for the year in the mid-$0.60 per gallon level.

我們的2024 年指導和關鍵指導假設的摘要位於幻燈片8 中。將2024 年與2023 年相比，如幻燈片9 上的EBITDA 步行所示，我們預計調整後的EBITDA 為26.25 億美元至27.25 億美元，全年 -原油業務的同比增長，部分抵消了液化天然氣業務中大宗商品價格的不利因素。我們原油業務的成長主要是由預期關稅量增加、關稅自動升級帶來的更高費用以及補強收購帶來的全年貢獻所推動的。我們假設市場機會較少，部分抵消了這一影響。我們預計NGL 部門調整後的EBITDA 將同比下降，這是由於預測的壓裂價差較低，部分被2024 年較高的C3+ 規格產品銷售所抵消。我要指出的是，我們的C3+ 規格產品銷售今年約90% 被對沖每加侖 0.60 美元中間水平。

We remain disciplined with our capital investments with approximately $375 million of growth capital and approximately $230 million of maintenance capital expected for the year net to PAA. This includes capital for POP JV well connections and intra-basin improvements, as well as an increase in our capital related to our previously announced Fort Sask debottleneck project.

我們仍然嚴格控制我們的資本投資，預計今年 PAA 淨額約為 3.75 億美元的成長資本和約 2.3 億美元的維護資本。這包括用於 POP JV 油井連接和盆地內改進的資金，以及與我們先前宣布的薩斯克堡去瓶頸項目相關的資金增加。

As illustrated on Slide 10, and in addition to a capital discipline, we remain committed to significant returns of capital and maintaining financial flexibility. For 2024, we expect to generate $1.65 billion of adjusted free cash flow, excluding changes in assets and liabilities, with approximately $1.15 billion to be allocated to common and preferred distributions, inclusive of the respective increases, resulting in $500 million of adjusted free cash flow after distributions available for value-creating opportunities, including potential bolt-on acquisitions or net debt reduction. Regarding our senior note maturity profile, we have $750 million of notes maturing in November 2024, which we would expect to refinance all or a portion of during the year.

如投影片 10 所示，除了資本紀律外，我們仍然致力於實現顯著的資本回報並保持財務靈活性。到2024年，我們預計將產生16.5億美元的調整後自由現金流（不包括資產和負債的變化），其中約11.5億美元將分配給普通股和優先股分配，包括各自的增長，從而產生5億美元的調整後自由現金流在可用於創造價值機會的分配之後，包括潛在的補強收購或淨債務削減。關於我們的優先票據到期情況，我們有 7.5 億美元的票據將於 2024 年 11 月到期，我們預計將在年內對全部或部分票據進行再融資。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Willie.

說完，我會把電話轉回給威利。

Thanks, Al. Ongoing geopolitical turmoil continues to drive market volatility, along with potential impacts to energy and economic policy. Despite this environment, Plains is well positioned today and going forward to continue delivering value to our unitholders.

謝謝，艾爾。持續的地緣政治動盪繼續推動市場波動，並對能源和經濟政策產生潛在影響。儘管存在這種環境，Plains 今天仍處於有利地位，並將繼續為我們的單位持有者提供價值。

As we show on Slide 11, we've made meaningful progress on our long-term goals and initiatives to continue to reposition -- to position ourselves to be the partner, employer and the investment of choice.

如投影片 11 所示，我們在長期目標和繼續重新定位的舉措方面取得了有意義的進展，將自己定位為合作夥伴、雇主和投資的首選。

In summary, our balance sheet is much stronger with year-end 2023 leverage at 3.1x. We continue to demonstrate capital discipline and patience as we look at additional opportunities to grow the business organically and inorganically through accretive and synergistic bolt-on acquisitions. And last but not least, we remain focused on increasing return of capital to our unitholders. We believe the world needs North American energy supply long term and that our business will perform well in both the near-term and longer-term environment.

總之，我們的資產負債表更加強勁，2023 年底槓桿比率為 3.1 倍。當我們尋求透過增值和協同的補強收購有機和無機地發展業務的更多機會時，我們將繼續表現出資本紀律和耐心。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們仍然專注於增加單位持有人的資本回報。我們相信世界長期需要北美能源供應，我們的業務在短期和長期環境中都將表現良好。

I'll turn the call back over to Blake, who can lead us into Q&A.

我會將電話轉回給布萊克，他可以引導我們進行問答。

Thanks, Willie. (Operator Instructions) With that, Daniel, I'll turn the call over to you.

謝謝，威利。 （接線生指示）丹尼爾，我會把電話轉給你。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Michael Blum with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Michael Blum。

I wanted to ask a little bit on the 24 guidance. Your Permian basin-level growth forecast, it's pretty close to your own gathering volume growth estimate. And I'm just wondering if you could speak to that. Is that a function of your market share in the basin? Is that just a coincidence? And then, the guidance also assumes a pretty nice jump in Western volumes year-over-year. So I wonder if you can talk about what's driving that as well.

我想問一些關於24指導的問題。您對二疊紀盆地級增長的預測，與您自己的收集量增長的估計非常接近。我只是想知道你是否可以談談這一點。這是您在該盆地的市場份額的函數嗎？這只是巧合嗎？然後，該指導意見也假設西方銷量比去年同期出現相當大的成長。所以我想知道你是否也可以談談是什麼推動了這一點。

Yes. Michael, this is Willie. The 275,000, maybe for clarity, it's composed of 2 factors. One, the M&A, the bolt-on transaction volumes that we added last year, and that's about 150,000 barrels a day, and then growth from the growing basin, which is about 125,000 barrels a day.

是的。邁克爾，這是威利。 275,000，也許為了清楚起見，它由 2 個因素組成。一是併購，我們去年增加的補充交易量，約為每天 150,000 桶，然後是增長盆地的增長，約為每天 125,000 桶。

And on the Western volumes, Jeremy, you want to comment on that?

關於西文卷，傑里米，你想對此發表評論嗎？

Yes. If you're speaking about Delaware Basin volumes being Western California, that was due to some downtime at the beginning of last year. So it's basically just normalizing to the second half of the year runway and some shutdown from California refineries, which pushed more volumes to the pipe. So it's a combination of those 2 things.

是的。如果您談論的是特拉華盆地的體積是西加州，那是由於去年年初的一些停機造成的。因此，基本上只是下半年的正常化以及加州煉油廠的一些關閉，這增加了管道的產量。所以它是這兩件事的結合。

Okay. Perfect. Appreciate all that. And then, just wanted to ask, it seems like the open season on Gray Oak is moving forward. So, just want to get your views on how you see that impacting your recontracting efforts on Cactus and then just generally on overall supply versus takeaway out of the basin.

好的。完美的。欣賞這一切。然後，我只是想問一下，灰橡樹的開放季節似乎正在向前推進。因此，只是想了解您對仙人掌重新承包工作的影響，以及整體供應與流域外賣的總體情況。

Sure. So what I would say first is, [with respect to] open season, we expect it to be successful. We are continuing to have constructive dialogue with our customers and see no reason why that's going to impact our recontracting negotiations. As far as takeaway from the basin, pipes to Corpus, they're still full. Wink to Webster is still full. You had some flex on a few pipelines in the area, but as basin grow, that will tighten. But it's a constructive market. People know where they want to bring their barrels in the future, and we're -- and we will continue to be positive on the long-haul pipes as time goes.

當然。所以我首先要說的是，[關於]開放賽季，我們希望它能成功。我們將繼續與客戶進行建設性對話，並認為這不會影響我們的重新合約談判。就從盆地到 Corpus 的管道而言，它們仍然是滿的。向韋伯斯特眨眼還滿。該地區的一些管道有一些彎曲，但隨著盆地的擴大，這種彎曲將會收緊。但這是一個建設性的市場。人們知道未來他們想把桶子運到哪裡，而隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續對長途管道持積極態度。

Our next question comes from Brian Reynolds with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布萊恩雷諾茲。

Maybe to follow up on Michael's question on just the 300,000 barrels of Delaware growth, which you bifurcated between some organic and inorganic year-over-year, just given high-level, Plains has 50% of the market share in the Permian, of which I think you're more highly leveraged to Delaware, just kind of curious if you can help us kind of square out kind of that gathering and long-haul guide a little bit more. Do you see outsized gathering share opportunities in the Delaware? Just given that more growth is expected to come from there in '24.

也許是為了跟進邁克爾關於特拉華州產量 300,000 桶的問題，您將其逐年分為有機和無機產量，只是考慮到高層，Plains 擁有二疊紀 50% 的市場份額，其中我認為你對特拉華州的影響更大，只是有點好奇你是否能幫助我們解決那種聚會和長途指南的問題。您在特拉華州看到大型聚會分享的機會嗎？只是考慮到 24 年預計會有更多成長。

I think Willie outlined the sources of the gathering growth, specifically Midland versus Delaware. It's a function of activity. So if you look at the number of rigs working in Delaware, it's probably 170 to 180. You have closer to 120 working in Midland. When you offset declines in new production, that's what yields the growth. You had significant growth in the fourth quarter of last year. So you would imagine it to be slower in the first half, stronger in the second half, which is consistent with some of the public E&Ps that have guided so far this year. So the Delaware Basin growth is a function of activity. We do have a stronger position in the Delaware Basin. So, that impacts us disproportionately. So I'd say that's that piece. That's for the long-haul guide. I think you were referring to the fourth quarter versus the full year long-haul numbers. And what I would say there is, we had an outsized contribution from the basin in the fourth quarter and a more normalized view for the year next year.

我認為威利概述了聚集增長的來源，特別是米德蘭與特拉華州。這是活動的函數。因此，如果您查看特拉華州正在運行的鑽機數量，可能會發現有 170 到 180 台。米德蘭有接近 120 台正在運行。當你抵消新產量的下降時，就會產生成長。去年第四季你們有顯著的成長。因此，你可以想像上半年會更慢，下半年會更強，這與今年迄今為止的一些公開勘探與生產的指導是一致的。因此，特拉華盆地的增長是活動的函數。我們在特拉華盆地確實擁有更強大的地位。因此，這對我們的影響不成比例。所以我想說那就是那件作品。這是長途指南。我認為您指的是第四季度與全年長途航班數據。我想說的是，我們在第四季從流域獲得了巨大的貢獻，並且對明年的看法更加正常化。

Appreciate all that. Maybe as my follow-up, switch to capital allocation. Plains enters '24 with a similar Tier 1 free cash flow yield in the space similar to '23. Last year, we saw debt reduction and some opportunistic M&A, along with the distribution bump. So kind of curious, as we look ahead to '24, preferences of that excess cash. And specifically on M&A, do you see a similar amount of like bolt-on opportunities in '24? Are they more limited at this juncture to where debt reduction might be the preference?

欣賞這一切。也許作為我的後續行動，轉向資本配置。 Plains 進入 24 年時，其一級自由現金流收益率與 23 年類似。去年，我們看到債務減少和一些機會主義併購，以及分配的增加。當我們展望 24 年時，我們很好奇對多餘現金的偏好。特別是在併購方面，您是否在 24 年看到了類似數量的補強機會？目前他們是否更傾向於減少債務？

Sure. This is Al. Our focus will be to continue to look at potential to make investments that are accretive to our valuation. We're hopeful that we'll be successful on some bolt-on acquisitions, but we don't know. We feel, in the near term, if we aren't successful with that, then again, continuing to reduce debt is not a bad alternative, pending that opportunity set. We do not specifically believe that we need to continue to reduce debt. However, our priority will continue to be to focus on investing, returning more cash through distributions and looking for other value opportunities around using that cash flow.

當然。這是艾爾。我們的重點將是繼續尋找可增加我們估值的投資潛力。我們希望我們能在一些補強收購上取得成功，但我們不知道。我們認為，在短期內，如果我們在這方面不成功，那麼在機會出現之前，繼續減少債務並不是一個壞的選擇。我們並不特別認為我們需要繼續減少債務。然而，我們的首要任務將繼續是專注於投資，透過分配返還更多現金，並尋找利用現金流的其他價值機會。

Brian, this is Willie. Maybe I'll add something to what Al said. When you think about the evolution of where we are, I'm not saying anything people don't know, but it's pretty remarkable where the industry has gone as far as shifting to an export market. A lot of capital has gone into the industry in the last decade. And I think what we're seeing right now is really kind of a change in the business cycle, focus on returns, which really is going to reinforce more opportunities for asset sales, consolidation. And really to address your question, I do think there are going to be more opportunities in there. And frankly, we just need to be very patient and capture it. Our asset base, as you know, is well situated to be able to capture synergies across the system in many of the basins we operate, but particularly the Permian. And the key now is to stay very disciplined. And at the right valuations, I think we can add bolt-ons just as we did last year.

布萊恩，這是威利。也許我會在艾爾所說的基礎上補充一些內容。當你思考我們所處的演變時，我並不是說任何人們不知道的事情，但這個行業已經轉向出口市場，這是相當引人注目的。過去十年，大量資本進入該行業。我認為我們現在看到的確實是商業週期的變化，專注於回報，這確實會加強更多的資產出售和整合機會。事實上，為了解決你的問題，我確實認為那裡會有更多的機會。坦白說，我們只需要非常耐心並抓住它。如您所知，我們的資產基礎地理位置優越，能夠在我們營運的許多盆地（尤其是二疊紀）的整個系統中發揮協同作用。現在的關鍵是保持嚴格的紀律。在正確的估值下，我認為我們可以像去年一樣增加補充。

And our next question comes from Keith Stanley with Wolfe.

我們的下一個問題來自基思·斯坦利和沃爾夫。

Could you, maybe on Cactus, just give a little more color on where you are at working to recontract that pipeline, timing of when you hope to resolve it and high-level goals for that? And I guess, just big picture, how you're thinking about a desire to have contracts with medium-term duration versus operating the pipeline on a less contracted basis depending on where price settles out?

您能否（或許在 Cactus 上）詳細說明您在哪些方面正在重新承包該管道、您希望解決該問題的時間以及該問題的高級目標？我想，從大局來看，您如何考慮簽訂中期合約的願望與根據價格結算而在合約較少的基礎上運營管道的願望？

Keith, this is Jeremy. What I would say is, it's constructive for us to have those dialogues now versus where it was the last couple of years. We expect to give you guys an update on that this year. But for competitive reasons, it doesn't make sense to right now. What I would say is, there's usually a mix, and it's largely -- we have to clear the basin. These pipes need to move barrels every day. And the owners of the capacity on that pipeline should be someone with ratable export takeaway because that's where it's going.

基思，這是傑瑞米。我想說的是，與過去幾年相比，現在進行這些對話對我們來說是建設性的。我們希望今年向大家提供最新情況。但出於競爭原因，目前沒有意義。我想說的是，通常是混合的，而且很大程度上是——我們必須清理盆地。這些管道每天都需要移動桶。該管道產能的所有者應該是具有可評估出口外賣的人，因為這就是它的去向。

So in a lot of respects, it makes sense to contract those pipelines with the third parties that will be exporting the barrels. So we serve the function of aggregating barrels from the lease to the market center. We have the liquidity in our terminals. They like to partner with us. It's matching up the supply on one end with their takeaway on the other. So it needs to have to strike a good balance of contracting with third parties and some marketing opportunities. But for us, it's more weighted to contracting and partnering up with the offtakers, like in Wink to Webster with the refiners, like on our Corpus pipelines with the exporters.

因此，從許多方面來看，與將出口石油的第三方簽訂這些管道合約是有意義的。因此，我們的功能是將桶子從租賃地聚集到市場中心。我們的終端有流動性。他們喜歡與我們合作。它一方面將供應與另一端的外賣相匹配。因此，它需要在與第三方簽訂合約和一些行銷機會之間取得良好的平衡。但對我們來說，更重要的是與承購商簽訂合約並建立合作夥伴關係，就像在 Wink to Webster 中與煉油商的合作一樣，就像我們與出口商在 Corpus 管道上的合作一樣。

And Keith, just to make a -- reinforce the point that Jerry made, many people we talk to think that our partners could disappear. We've got great partners on this line, folks that are shipping. And so, the way I would couch this is, we've got a great relationship with our partners and the shippers on the line. And this is just a normal course of business that you have to go on renegotiation and negotiations as far as term and tariff.

基思，只是為了強調傑瑞提出的觀點，我們交談過的許多人都認為我們的伴侶可能會消失。我們在這條線上有很棒的合作夥伴，正在運輸的人們。因此，我的表達方式是，我們與合作夥伴和線路上的托運人建立了良好的關係。這只是一個正常的業務流程，你必須就條款和關稅進行重新談判。

Got it. Second question, just the company has had really good market-based results in the past 2 years on Canadian crude spreads and NGL market dynamics. I think it's Slide 9. You're assuming fewer market-based opportunities in 2024. Is that a function of there are specific areas where you just see less opportunity this year? Or is it just conservatism built in/kind of a lack of visibility at this point? Just how you would characterize that bucket on market-based opportunities?

知道了。第二個問題，在過去兩年裡，該公司在加拿大原油價差和液化天然氣市場動態方面取得了非常好的基於市場的表現。我認為是幻燈片 9。您假設 2024 年基於市場的機會會減少。這是因為您今年在某些特定領域看到的機會較少嗎？或者這只是內建的保守主義/在這一點上缺乏可見性？您如何描述基於市場的機會？

Yes. So market-based opportunities, you can't predict them. They're very difficult to figure out. When something might happen, some of this is weather. Some of it's other asset-relied. And there's all kinds of things that factor into this. And we've been pretty conscious of not trying to forecast in a large capture for things that we don't know that's going to happen. So one of the fundamental changes this year is we have -- not we, but the industry has Trans Mountain that's starting up that could impact the opportunities for crude market opportunities. So we factor all this in.

是的。因此，基於市場的機會，你無法預測。他們很難弄清楚。當某些事情可能發生時，其中一些就是天氣。其中一些是其他資產依賴的。這涉及到各種各樣的因素。我們非常清楚，不會嘗試在大型捕獲中預測我們不知道會發生的事情。因此，今年的根本性變化之一是我們——不是我們，而是產業內正在啟動的跨山石油公司，這可能會影響原油市場的機會。所以我們把所有這些都考慮在內。

And to answer your question, we don't have a tremendous amount of -- we have a modest amount of market opportunities that we have captured, that we think we can probably catch. The answer is, if there are opportunities out there, it's in our ethos and DNA to capture markets. We've got the broad assets and a company with people that focus on this every day. And so, if there are opportunities out there, we'll capture it. But it's very difficult to predict exactly where they happen. And again, this year's budget is based on a modest amount of market opportunities, and that's frankly why we move towards the range to give people kind of a range of thought of what those might be. I hope that helps.

為了回答你的問題，我們沒有大量的東西——我們有少量的市場機會，我們已經抓住了，我們認為我們可以抓住這些機會。答案是，如果有機會的話，我們的精神和基因就是佔領市場。我們擁有廣泛的資產和一家每天都專注於此的公司。因此，如果有機會，我們就會抓住它。但很難準確預測它們發生的地點。再說一次，今年的預算是基於適度的市場機會，坦白說，這就是為什麼我們朝著這個範圍前進，讓人們對這些機會有一系列的思考。我希望這有幫助。

It does.

確實如此。

And our next question comes from Jean Salisbury with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自讓·索爾茲伯里和伯恩斯坦。

Can you talk through the puts and takes of TMX starting up on Plains' various assets, Canada -- your Canada crude pipelines, flows to Cushing, et cetera?

您能談談 TMX 在 Plains 的各種資產、加拿大（加拿大的原油管道、流向庫欣的原油管道等）上啟動的情況嗎？

Jean, it's Jeremy. It's a function of time, so it's not just linear. But the startup, you would imagine there'd be less market-based opportunities, but there'll be the opportunity for more production growth in the basin. It will offset some current flows like rail from the Williston or exports of heavy from the Gulf Coast first. And then, you'll have replacement of -- in our opinion, you'll have replacement of production growth in Canada. So in that initial period, there'll be less market-based opportunities.

瓊，我是傑瑞米。它是時間的函數，因此它不僅僅是線性的。但對於新創公司來說，你會想像基於市場的機會會減少，但該盆地將有更多生產成長的機會。它將抵消一些當前的流量，例如來自威利斯頓的鐵路或首先來自墨西哥灣沿岸的重型貨物出口。然後，我們認為，加拿大的產量成長將得到替代。因此，在最初階段，基於市場的機會將會減少。

Depending upon the flows that go West, if it's lighter barrels or heavy barrels, that could impact flows to the Midwest of basin barrels or other light barrels. So there are opportunities. We're going to have to wait for it to start up and transition into full capacity that can be reached and what those flows will impact all those components. But we have a flexible system. We're touching all parts of that value chain. So if it's fee-based growth on the gathering systems, we're excited about that. As the basin tightens again and market opportunities come back, that's fine for us, too. But we'll be there wherever the opportunities present themselves.

根據向西流動的流量，如果是較輕的桶或較重的桶，可能會影響流向中西部盆地桶或其他輕型桶的流量。所以有機會。我們將不得不等待它啟動並過渡到可以達到的滿載狀態，以及這些流量將影響所有這些組件。但我們有一個靈活的系統。我們正在觸及該價值鏈的所有部分。因此，如果收集系統是基於費用的成長，我們對此感到興奮。隨著盆地再次收緊，市場機會回歸，這對我們來說也很好。但只要有機會，我們就會出現。

Okay. And just a kind of similar follow-up. Some Bakken contracts begin to roll this year on Double H and DAPL going out of the Bakken. Do you anticipate any major change in how much Bakken crude makes its way kind of the westbound route down to Saddlehorn or the Cushing market or other things that could impact Plains' EBITDA?

好的。只是一種類似的後續行動。一些巴肯合約今年開始在 Double H 和 DAPL 上從巴肯發出。您預計巴肯原油透過西行路線前往薩德爾霍恩或庫欣市場的數量是否會發生重大變化，或其他可能影響普萊恩斯 EBITDA 的因素？

Sure. So there's a few things that impact it. There are certain gathering systems that feed South and certain that feed into the DAPL system. But outside of those, those [jump ball] barrels, I think it will just be competitive between the groups that head south and the groups that head to the Gulf Coast and Patoka. So we're [there, patient]. We talk to our customers. Saddlehorn is largely full from DJ Basin. It has some movements from Guernsey, and those opportunities are presenting themselves. And so, we'll continue to work with shippers to bring them South if it makes sense. But there should be plenty of barrels to go around in that area.

當然。所以有一些因素會影響它。有些收集系統向南方供料，有些則向 DAPL 系統供料。但除此之外，那些[跳球]桶，我認為這只會在向南的團體與前往墨西哥灣沿岸和帕託卡的團體之間競爭。所以我們[在那裡，耐心]。我們與客戶交談。 Saddlehorn 大部分來自 DJ Basin。根西島有一些動作，這些機會正在顯現。因此，如果可行的話，我們將繼續與托運人合作，將他們帶到南方。但那個區域應該有很多桶子可以使用。

Our next question comes from Neel Mitra with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Neel Mitra。

I wanted to touch on the 90% of NGL frac spreads that are hedged for '24. Obviously, frac spreads have trended up lately. I was wondering if you're able to catch some of that with the incremental hedges you put on. And how are you looking at perhaps hedging more than usual and maybe going up to 100% if you're content with this frac spread environment right now?

我想談談 24 年對沖的 90% 的 NGL 壓裂價差。顯然，壓裂價差最近呈現上升趨勢。我想知道你是否能夠透過增加對沖來抓住其中的一些。如果您對目前的壓裂價差環境感到滿意，那麼您如何看待可能比平常更多的對沖，甚至可能達到 100%？

So, Neel, first thing, it's really backwardated. And until natural gas prices tanked a few weeks ago, it was substantially lower. So this is relatively new, and it's much higher in the front. I think 2025 is $0.56, $0.57 and prompt could be at $0.80. So, that backwardation prevents a lot of forward hedging. Our hedges are consistent with what Al said, in the mid-60s at roughly 90%. And what you could say is that the hedging profile for us is somewhat consistent with the forward market. So we're higher hedged in the front and lower hedged in the back end of the year, if that's helpful.

所以，尼爾，首先，它確實是落後的。直到幾週前天然氣價格暴跌之前，該價格一直大幅下降。所以這個是比較新的，而且前面的高很多。我認為 2025 年的價格為 0.56 美元、0.57 美元，提示價格可能為 0.80 美元。因此，這種現貨溢價阻止了許多遠期對沖。我們的對沖與 Al 所說的一致，在 60 年代中期大約是 90%。你可以說我們的對沖狀況在某種程度上與遠期市場一致。因此，如果這有幫助的話，我們會在年初進行較高的對沖，在年底進行較低的對沖。

Okay. And then second question, Jeremy, maybe just if there's a way to kind of bridge where the Midland-MEH spread is right now for '25 and where you're looking to contract and how we should look at it on a contract basis versus a spread basis, when you're signing up these contracts?

好的。然後是第二個問題，傑里米，也許有一種方法可以在米德蘭-MEH 價差現在是25 年以及你希望簽訂合約的地方以及我們應該如何在合約基礎上看待它而不是在合約基礎上看待它。當您簽訂這些合約時，價差基礎？

Sure. What I would tell you, Neel, is most of these contracts are for the latter half of '25 and forward. So we're not really looking at the '25 market. We're looking at more what is the constructive long-term rate to ship barrels from the Permian to the Gulf Coast. And so, that's between us and the shippers, but we're having constructive dialogue and we're less worried about '24 and '25 and more what the long-term rate is after the contracts roll.

當然。尼爾，我要告訴你的是，這些合約中的大部分都是 25 年下半年及以後的合約。所以我們並不是真正關注 25 世紀的市場。我們正在更多地關注從二疊紀盆地到墨西哥灣沿岸運輸桶的建設性長期費率是多少。所以，這是我們和托運人之間的事情，但我們正在進行建設性對話，我們不太擔心“24”和“25”，更擔心合約到期後的長期利率。

And when you talk to your counterparties, would it be 3 to 5-year contracts typically? Or are you looking longer (inaudible)?

當您與交易對手交談時，通常會簽訂 3 到 5 年的合約嗎？還是你想看更長的時間（聽不清楚）？

I think we'll -- Neel, what I would suggest is, we'll give you an update later in the year and give you more information.

我想我們會——尼爾，我的建議是，我們將在今年晚些時候向您提供最新情況並提供更多資訊。

Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通證券的 Jeremy Tonet。

This is Vrathan Reddy on for Jeremy. For my first one, I just wanted to ask on more color on the 2024 intra-basin and long-haul volumes. It looks like the '24 guide is down versus the 4Q '23 rates. So if you could discuss drivers there? And as maybe a second part to that question, do the long-haul shipments include the 50,000 barrel per day shipments that have already been prepaid?

我是傑里米 (Jeremy) 的弗拉森·雷迪 (Vrathan Reddy)。對於我的第一個，我只是想詢問有關 2024 年內流域和長途運輸量的更多資訊。與 23 年第四季的價格相比，24 年指南似乎有所下降。那麼您是否可以在那裡討論驅動程式？也許是這個問題的第二部分，長途運輸是否包括已經預付的每天 50,000 桶的運輸？

I'm going to go back and look for your question here. So you said inter-basin volumes on the guide versus long-haul. So I'm looking at Q4 long-haul and intra-basin, and then for next year. I would say there's probably some noise in that. Q4 had a bunch of flush production. Some of that volume with Wink to Webster connecting (inaudible) and volume will go in that direction, which is actually a positive because those are shorter-haul tariffs and that leads for integrated movements on our gathering system. So I'd say this is all consistent with our guidance and constructive for volume growth out of the Delaware Basin. And then, on the long-haul side, I believe I answered that question earlier. It was just a surge in basin production in the fourth quarter and more normalized for the rest of the year.

我要回去看看你的問題。所以你說的是指南上的跨流域運輸量和長途運輸量。因此，我正在關注第四季度的長途航線和流域內航線，然後是明年。我想說這裡面可能有一些噪音。第四季產量大量增加。 Wink 到 Webster 連接（聽不清楚）的部分流量將朝這個方向發展，這實際上是一個積極的因素，因為這些是短程關稅，這會導致我們收集系統上的綜合移動。所以我想說，這完全符合我們的指導，並且對特拉華盆地的產量成長具有建設性。然後，從長遠來看，我相信我早些時候回答了這個問題。這只是第四季盆地產量的激增，今年剩餘時間更加正常化。

And then, for the second one, it looks like Plains is approaching the long-term distribution coverage target. So just could you walk through how you guys think about distribution progression from here may be versus a step-up and then flattening out or a more ratable moderate step-up in the future?

然後，對於第二個，Plains 似乎正在接近長期分銷覆蓋目標。那麼，你們能否闡述一下你們如何看待從這裡開始的分配進展，與逐步上升然後趨於平緩，或者未來更加可評價的適度上升？

Well, I think our current guidance for this year shows 190% coverage. So we've got a bit to go. Our stated approach will be $0.15 a year until we hit the 160%. And then DCF growth will drive future increases there. So we haven't provided guidance for '25 or '26 yet. But yes, with this 19% or 20% increase we just did, we're still at 190% coverage.

嗯，我認為我們今年的當前指導覆蓋率達到 190%。所以我們還有一段路要走。我們規定的方法是每年 0.15 美元，直到達到 160%。然後 DCF 的成長將推動那裡未來的成長。因此，我們尚未提供 '25 或 '26 的指導。但是，是的，儘管我們剛剛增加了 19% 或 20%，但我們的覆蓋率仍然是 190%。

Our next question comes from Sunil Sibal with Seaport Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Sunil Sibal。

So I just wanted to dwell a little bit on your gathering volumes. Could you give us a sense of your gathering volumes in Permian, roughly what percentage of that comes from your dedicated acreage versus acreage where you may be competing for volumes?

所以我只是想稍微談談你收集的書。您能否向我們介紹一下您在二疊紀的收集量，其中來自您的專用面積與您可能爭奪收集量的面積的大致比例是多少？

Sunil, this is Willie. I don't know if you were on earlier, but the overall gathering volume increases are 275,000 barrels a day. 150,000 of it's from the bolt-ons that we did. The remainder of the growth, 125,000 is all -- really all Delaware Basin growth.

蘇尼爾，這是威利。我不知道您是否早些時候在場，總體收集量增加了每天 275,000 桶。其中 150,000 個來自我們所做的螺栓固定。其餘的增長，125,000 是所有——實際上都是特拉華盆地的增長。

Okay. No, I was actually referring to your current gathering volumes. I was curious in Permian, is there a good sense of what all comes from your dedicated acreages in Permian versus acreages where you may be competing for those gathering volumes?

好的。不，我實際上指的是你目前收集的書籍。我對二疊紀很好奇，您是否清楚地了解您在二疊紀的專用面積與您可能爭奪這些收集量的面積的區別？

Sunil, I would say the vast majority is associated with the 4.4 million acres that Willie referenced in the script that are dedicated to the system.

蘇尼爾，我想說絕大多數與威利在腳本中提到的專用於該系統的 440 萬英畝土地有關。

Understood. And then, on the M&A front, it seems like you divested some assets in 2023. Could you give us a sense of, from an opportunistic M&A perspective, where do you see the most value, either basin-wise or asset-wise?

明白了。然後，在併購方面，您似乎在 2023 年剝離了一些資產。您能否從機會主義併購的角度告訴我們，您認為哪裡最有價值，無論是流域方面還是資產方面？

Sunil, that's probably something we're not going to comment on all the what-ifs. I can assure you that we look at -- we run models on all kinds of different things. We look at all the different assets and opportunities to create value for our unitholders. And on the same token, we look to optimize our own asset base, as we've proven over the last number of years. So it's a dynamic activity that happens every day. It's really hard to focus on valuations in different basins. So we'll have to -- maybe we can follow up with you offline and see if we can answer your question a little bit better.

蘇尼爾，這可能是我們不會對所有假設情況發表評論的事情。我可以向你保證，我們會在各種不同的事物上運行模型。我們著眼於為我們的單位持有者創造價值的所有不同資產和機會。出於同樣的原因，我們希望優化我們自己的資產基礎，正如我們過去幾年所證明的那樣。所以這是每天都會發生的動態活動。很難集中關注不同盆地的估值。所以我們必須——也許我們可以在線下跟進您，看看我們是否可以更好地回答您的問題。

Our next question comes from Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

My question, maybe, Willie, for you, or Al, just on Permian volume expectations. Al did a good job. You mentioned the rig count, which continues to be nice and stable. But to me, what seems to get a bit lost is the improved continued D&C efficiencies that happens to result in more volumes even with these similar levels. So I'm just wondering, do you all continue to see this type of upside as I do? Even if the D&C -- if the rigs stay relatively stable, are you still expecting some nice volume upside on your part?

威利，我的問題也許是問你，或者阿爾，只是關於二疊紀產量的預期。艾爾做得很好。您提到了鑽機數量，該數量仍然良好且穩定。但對我來說，似乎有點迷失的是持續的 D&C 效率的提高，即使在這些相似的水平下，也恰好導致了更多的銷售。所以我只是想知道，你們都像我一樣繼續看到這種類型的好處嗎？即使 D&C——如果鑽孔機保持相對穩定，您是否仍然期望您的銷售會出現一些不錯的上漲？

I think our forecast is consistent with what the industry is doing today, but they're all working to get better. If you look at oil-in-place targets, and they're achieving in first recovery is less than 10%. They're trying to get higher than that. And if they do that, that would be where a big movement would be. What I would say though is, consistent with our view of supply and demand and current D&C practices, I would agree with you that there's probably been 10% efficiency of just drilling completion time since the steadying out of the rig count. So this 300 rigs is probably doing the work of close to 330 rigs 12 months ago. But as far as recoveries, I think recoveries and our view of efficiencies are built into our forecast this year. But longer term, our bet would be on the U.S. E&Ps that they would figure out how to get higher recoveries.

我認為我們的預測與該行業目前的做法是一致的，但他們都在努力變得更好。如果你看看石油地質儲量目標，你會發現他們在首次採收率上實現的目標還不到 10%。他們正在努力達到更高的水平。如果他們這樣做，那將是一場大運動。不過，我想說的是，根據我們對供需的看法以及當前的 D&C 實踐，我同意您的觀點，即自鑽機數量穩定以來，僅鑽井完井時間的效率可能就提高了 10%。因此，這 300 台鑽孔機可能正在完成 12 個月前近 330 台鑽孔機的工作。但就復甦而言，我認為復甦和我們對效率的看法已納入我們今年的預測中。但從長遠來看，我們押注美國勘探生產公司，他們會想出如何獲得更高的回收率。

And Neal, remember, we do a top-down assessment. We also -- we have our connection forecast. It's kind of a bottoms-up. And so, we factor all that together, and that's where we got our number from.

尼爾，請記住，我們進行自上而下的評估。我們還有連結預測。這是一種由下而上的方式。因此，我們將所有這些因素綜合起來，這就是我們得到數字的來源。

Great point. Yes, that's good to have that detail. And then, my second question is just maybe on the NGL segment, specifically, it looks like -- just wondering how you think about is the sort of levels, now that propane -- we're through the -- a bit through the season, it seems to me -- do you think we'll have more propane pricing pressure? And I guess I'm just wondering how you think that's going to impact the regional basis differentials and maybe some more spot opportunities you all might have.

很棒的一點。是的，有這個細節很好。然後，我的第二個問題可能是關於 NGL 部分，具體來說，它看起來像 - 只是想知道你是如何看待這種水平的，現在丙烷 - 我們正在經歷 - 整個賽季已經過去了一點，在我看來——您認為我們會面臨更大的丙烷定價壓力嗎？我想我只是想知道您認為這將如何影響區域基差，也許還有您可能擁有的更多現貨機會。

Sure. I think that's a function of location. So Fort Sask is limited on fractionation capacity, which is why we're expanding and our peers. So there could be some pressure on Y-Grade prices there. I'd say in the Gulf Coast, production growth will continue on the NGL side as associated gas and other gas grows -- sources grow. And so, there needs to be some expansion of dock capacity and fracs in the Gulf Coast. So you could see some issues there. But in a lot of those locations where we sell our NGLs, they're structurally short and inability to bring additional capacity into. So we'll continue to try to sell into those markets and maximize basis.

當然。我認為這是位置的函數。因此，薩斯克堡的分餾能力有限，這就是我們和同儕擴張的原因。因此，Y 級價格可能會面臨一些壓力。我想說，在墨西哥灣沿岸，隨著伴生氣和其他天然氣來源的增長，液化天然氣方面的產量將繼續增長。因此，需要擴大墨西哥灣沿岸的碼頭容量和壓裂能力。所以你可以在那裡看到一些問題。但在我們銷售液化天然氣的許多地點，它們結構短缺，無法帶來額外的產能。因此，我們將繼續嘗試向這些市場銷售並最大化基礎。

And our next question comes from John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的約翰·麥凱。

I wanted to touch again on Permian crude, just on your -- you commented on your bottoms-up estimates. I'd be curious if you could give us a bit of a read on what you're seeing for private versus public activity? And I think also related, last year on the call, you just gave a bit of your sensitivity to changes in basin production from an EBITDA basis, maybe just a refresh on that, too.

我想再次談談二疊紀原油，只是關於您對自下而上的估計的評論。我很好奇您能否為我們介紹一下您所看到的私人活動與公共活動的情況？我認為也相關的是，去年在電話會議上，您剛從 EBITDA 的基礎上給出了對流域產量變化的一些敏感性，也許也只是對此進行了更新。

So John, your first question, private verse public, we're not going to disclose any information from our customers. But generally, a lot of the private inventory has been sold into the public hands. And so, the privates are now buying back from the independent lesser loved assets and starting to redevelop again. But I'd focus on the public. It's been consolidated to look at their growth forecast, and that's largely consistent with our forecast.

約翰，你的第一個問題，私人還是公開，我們不會透露客戶的任何資訊。但一般來說，許多私人庫存已被賣到公眾手中。因此，私人企業現在正在從獨立的不太受青睞的資產中回購，並開始重新開發。但我會關注公眾。我們已經對他們的成長預測進行了整合，這與我們的預測基本一致。

And as far as the EBITDA refresh, I'm not sure I caught that question.

至於 EBITDA 更新，我不確定我是否抓住了這個問題。

Yes. I guess last year, on the call, you said maybe like 100,000 barrel-a-day swing for the basin would be like a $10 million to $15 million EBITDA impact. Just curious if that number is still fair for '24? Or are there some other moving pieces in there to refresh?

是的。我想去年，在電話會議上，您說該盆地每天 10 萬桶的波動可能會帶來 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元的 EBITDA 影響。只是好奇這個數字對於 24 年來是否仍然合理？或者還有其他一些可移動的部分需要刷新？

Yes, sir. That's consistent with the contracting profile we have. So there's not a lot of churn in the contract, so it doesn't really change much.

是的先生。這與我們的合約情況一致。所以合約中沒有太多的流失，所以它並沒有真正改變太多。

And then, just a follow-up, kind of staying on the same theme, but when you guys did the Oryx buy in, part of the narrative was, hey, eventually, over time, we should be able to use this bigger footprint to flow more volumes into our long-haul side. Just curious if you could give us a bit of an update there. And maybe if we look at your ratio of kind of gathering to long-haul volumes going forward, maybe how that ratio changes from here or not?

然後，只是一個後續行動，有點停留在同一主題上，但是當你們購買 Oryx 時，部分敘述是，嘿，最終，隨著時間的推移，我們應該能夠使用這個更大的足跡讓更多的貨量流入我們的長途航線。只是好奇您能否提供我們一些最新情況。也許如果我們看看你未來的集會與長途運輸量的比率，也許這個比率從現在開始會發生什麼變化？

Well, one thing is, I wouldn't consider the Oryx a buy-in, right? That's our partner, and we've merged those assets together. So I just want to make sure we're clear on that. But second, the JV has done exactly what we thought it would. And I would say it's bolstered our relationship with our customers across the basin and given us the opportunity to provide integrated economics. But as for -- the markets will dictate where barrels flow and pricing dictates where they flow. And so, we have strong relationships and the ability to contract our pipes, but they can only be so full. And so, barrels have to flow in other directions as well. And we're completely comfortable with that.

嗯，有一點是，我不會認為 Oryx 值得買入，對吧？那是我們的合作夥伴，我們已將這些資產合併在一起。所以我只是想確保我們對此很清楚。但其次，合資公司的表現完全符合我們的預期。我想說，這加強了我們與整個流域客戶的關係，並使我們有機會提供綜合經濟。但至於——市場將決定石油流向何處，定價將決定其流向何處。因此，我們擁有牢固的關係和承包管道的能力，但它們也只能滿了。因此，桶子也必須流向其他方向。我們對此完全滿意。

Our next question comes from Theresa Chen with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的Theresa Chen。

I had a quick follow-up related to Jean's earlier question on TMX's impact on your crude marketing business. Completely understanding that the differentials to both Mid-Con and Gulf Coast should be constrained, especially upon linefill, but as TMX delivers barrels to the West Coast, backing out some of the Middle East and LatAm imports, and given your liquids infrastructure business there, as well as your marketing presence, is that potentially a source of upside to crude marketing in 2024 relative to opportunities in 2023 as those waterborne imports are backed out and the flows and differentials change in California?

我對 Jean 之前提出的有關 TMX 對您的原始行銷業務影響的問題進行了快速跟進。完全理解中部地區和墨西哥灣沿岸的差異應該受到限制，特別是在線路填充方面，但隨著TMX 將桶運送到西海岸，取消一些中東和拉丁美洲的進口，並考慮到您在那裡的液體基礎設施業務，以及您的行銷存在，相對於 2023 年的機會，這是否是 2024 年原油行銷的潛在上行來源，因為這些水運進口被取消，並且加州的流量和差異發生變化？

Theresa, this is Willie. It's a complex question that, that's hard to put a pin to. What I can assure you is that we have a very flexible system in that wherever flows will go, I think we'll be able to adapt to that and capture value perhaps in different parts of our system. Long term, I look at this as very constructive because with more takeaway capacity to the West Coast, I think it allows a better price signal to producers to be able to produce more. Short term, we could see some headwinds, but I can assure you that we'll adapt to that. Whatever the markets are, we're going to try to look and see how we can use our assets to capture value.

特蕾莎，這是威利。這是一個複雜的問題，很難確定。我可以向您保證的是，我們擁有一個非常靈活的系統，無論流量流向何處，我認為我們都能夠適應這一點，並可能在我們系統的不同部分捕獲價值。從長遠來看，我認為這是非常有建設性的，因為隨著西海岸的外賣能力增加，我認為這可以向生產商發出更好的價格訊號，使其能夠生產更多產品。短期來看，我們可能會遇到一些阻力，但我可以向您保證，我們會適應這種情況。無論市場如何，我們都會嘗試研究如何利用我們的資產來獲取價值。

Our next question comes from Timm Schneider with The Schneider Capital Group.

我們的下一個問題來自施耐德資本集團的提姆·施耐德。

Thanks for all the color on the Permian. Quick question for me, kind of higher-level question on the sector strategic initiatives. So we've seen a ton of M&A activity on the upstream side, really saw some of these blockbuster transactions. So I have 2 questions for you on this. Number one, how do you view upstream M&A specifically kind of for Plains and for the midstream sector? Is that good for you, bad for you, kind of neutral? And the second follow-up I have to that is, how do you think upstream M&A -- the large-scale upstream M&A ultimately trickles through to midstream sector? Because we haven't really seen any blockbuster transactions there, right? We've seen one big deal over the last, call it, 12 to 18 months that had some, call it, tax attributes to it. Or is it more so smaller bolt-ons, and that's the way to go? So just curious as to what your thoughts are on that.

感謝二疊紀的所有色彩。對我來說這是一個簡短的問題，是關於部門策略舉措的更高層次的問題。因此，我們在上游看到了大量的併購活動，確實看到了其中一些重磅交易。所以我有兩個問題想問你。第一，您如何看待上游併購，特別是針對平原和中游產業的併購？這對你有好處，有壞處，還是中性的？我要跟進的第二個問題是，您如何看待上游併購—大規模的上游併購最終會滲透到中游產業？因為我們還沒有真正看到那裡有任何重磅交易，對嗎？我們在過去的 12 到 18 個月裡看到了一件大事，稱之為稅收屬性。還是更小的螺栓固定裝置，這就是要走的路？所以只是好奇你對此有何想法。

Well, Timm, a short answer on the question for upstream consolidation and the impact on Plains, with our asset base and the relationships we have, I don't think it's going to be a material impact on us. We work with, if not all, most of the large players. So we've got volumes that flow on our systems today, and they're tied with contracts. And the way I think about it is, if you have stronger counterparties in tougher environments, we're fine if they want to develop the Permian in a more thoughtful and efficient way because we're a long-term company, and we want to be around for a long time. So whether or not the production comes this year, next year or the following year, the stability is probably a very positive thing for us.

好吧，蒂姆，簡短回答上游整合的問題以及對平原的影響，根據我們的資產基礎和我們擁有的關係，我認為這不會對我們產生重大影響。我們與大多數（如果不是全部的話）大型企業合作。因此，今天我們的系統上有大量的流量，並且它們與合約相關聯。我的想法是，如果你在更艱難的環境中擁有更強大的交易對手，如果他們想以更周到和更有效的方式開發二疊紀，我們就很好，因為我們是一家長期公司，我們希望長期存在。所以無論今年、明年或後年投產，穩定對我們來說可能是一件非常正面的事情。

And then, when you think about the midstream, my observations are, I do think the upstream is a bit ahead of us. I do think there will be some more consolidation. Assets are probably the easiest way to go. And again, as we -- as you look at the landscape, there has been some M&A in the midstream, but I think we are in the part of the business cycle where there are more opportunities to be bigger and be stronger. Not that we aren't a large enterprise, but we'll evaluate different opportunities as we go, always with the unitholder in mind.

然後，當你考慮中游時，我的觀察是，我確實認為上游有點領先我們。我確實認為還會有更多的整合。資產可能是最簡單的方法。再說一遍，正如我們所看到的，中游出現了一些併購，但我認為我們正處於商業週期的一部分，有更多機會做大做強。並不是說我們不是一家大型企業，而是我們會隨時評估不同的機會，並且始終牢記單位持有者。

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

我目前沒有提出任何進一步的問題。我現在想將電話轉回給管理階層進行總結發言。

Well, listen, thanks to all of you for your interest in Plains, and we will look forward to updating you as the year progresses. Everyone, have a nice weekend. Thank you.

好吧，聽著，感謝大家對平原的興趣，我們將期待隨著時間的推移向您提供最新消息。大家，週末愉快。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。