Plains All American Pipeline LP (PAA) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Plains All America's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's call is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Plains All America 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Blake Fernandez, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係副總裁布萊克費爾南德斯 (Blake Fernandez)。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Norma. Good morning, and welcome to Plains All American Third Quarter '23 Earnings Call. Today's slide presentation is posted on the Investor Relations website under the News and Events section at plains.com. An audio replay will also be available following today's call.

謝謝你，諾瑪。早安，歡迎參加 Plains All American 第三季 '23 財報電話會議。今天的幻燈片簡報發佈在 plains.com 投資者關係網站的新聞和活動部分下。今天的電話會議後還將提供音訊重播。

Important disclosures regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures are provided on Slide 2. An overview of today's call is provided on Slide 3. A condensed consolidating balance sheet for PAGP and other reference materials are in the appendix. Today's call will be hosted by Willie Chiang, our Chairman and CEO; and Al Swanson, Executive Vice President and CFO as well as other members of our management team.

有關前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則財務指標的重要揭露請參閱投影片 2。投影片 3 提供了今天電話會議的概述。附錄中提供了 PAGP 的簡明合併資產負債表和其他參考資料。今天的電話會議將由我們的董事長兼執行長 Willie Jiang 主持；執行副總裁兼財務長 Al Swanson 以及我們管理團隊的其他成員。

With that, I will turn the call over to Willie.

這樣，我就把電話轉給威利。

Thanks, Blake. Happy Friday, everyone, and thank you for joining us this morning. Today, we reported strong third quarter results, along with the closing of 2 Permian gathering bolt-on acquisitions and the continued execution of our multiyear capital allocation framework, which is focused on lowering leverage and increasing the return of capital to our unitholders. As a result of our year-to-date performance and the partial year contributions of our recent bolt-on acquisitions, we are raising our full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $2.6 billion to $2.65 billion.

謝謝，布萊克。大家星期五快樂，感謝您今天早上加入我們。今天，我們公佈了強勁的第三季業績，同時完成了兩項二疊紀盆地補充收購，並繼續執行我們的多年資本配置框架，該框架的重點是降低槓桿率和提高單位持有人的資本回報率。鑑於我們今年迄今的業績以及最近補強收購的部分年度貢獻，我們將 2023 年全年調整後 EBITDA 指引提高至 26 億美元至 26.5 億美元的範圍。

This reflects an increase of $50 million to $100 million from the high end of our previous guidance range. A high-level overview of our updated 2023 guidance is located on Slide 4, and Al will share additional detail in his portion of the call. As summarized on Slide 5, our Permian JV acquired Rattler Midstream's Southern Delaware Basin crude gathering system and LM Energy's Northern Delaware Basin Touchdown crude gathering system for an aggregate cash consideration of approximately $205 million or approximately $135 million net to Plains.

這反映出比我們之前指導範圍的上限增加了 5,000 萬美元至 1 億美元。我們更新的 2023 年指南的高級概述位於幻燈片 4 上，Al 將在他的電話會議部分分享更多詳細資訊。如幻燈片5 所示，我們的二疊紀合資企業收購了Rattler Midstream 的南特拉華盆地原油採集系統和LM Energy 的北特拉華盆地Touchdown 原油採集系統，總現金對價約2.05 億美元，或Plains 的淨價約為1.35 億美元。

These bolt-on acquisitions are expected to generate unlevered returns in line with our return thresholds of approximately 300 to 500 basis points above our weighted average cost of capital, in addition to enhancing our position in the Delaware Basin. The assets will further position the Permian JV to expand its service and offerings and extend commercial relationships with both new and existing customers.

這些補強收購預計將產生無槓桿回報，符合我們的回報門檻，比我們的加權平均資本成本高出約 300 至 500 個基點，此外還增強了我們在特拉華盆地的地位。這些資產將進一步幫助二疊紀合資企業擴大其服務和產品，並擴大與新舊客戶的商業關係。

Regarding today's capital allocation update, we continue to make meaningful progress towards our goal of lower absolute debt and maintaining a strong balance sheet that can withstand various commodity cycles. As highlighted on Slide 6, we are lowering our long-term leverage ratio target range to 3.25x to 3.75x. This is intended to be a long-term range -- target range where we may operate below the low range -- the low end of the range during certain periods or temporarily above the top end of the range in the event of strategic transactions with a goal of moving back into the target range on a long-term basis.

關於現今的資本配置更新，我們繼續在降低絕對債務和維持能夠承受各種商品週期的強勁資產負債表的目標方面取得有意義的進展。如同投影片 6 所強調的，我們將長期槓桿率目標範圍降低至 3.25 倍至 3.75 倍。這是一個長期範圍——目標範圍，我們可以在低範圍以下進行操作——在某些時期內該範圍的低端，或者在與某個公司進行戰略交易時暫時高於該範圍的上限。長期目標回到目標範圍。

We expect to exit the year below 3.5x due to a reduction in net debt of approximately $450 million, which is underpinned by the repayment of $1.1 billion of senior notes in 2023. In further support of our capital allocation framework laid out in November of '22, we intend to recommend to our Board a $0.20 per unit annualized increase in our quarterly distribution payable in February of 2024 as seen on Slide 7.

由於淨債務減少約 4.5 億美元，我們預計今年的退出利率將低於 3.5 倍，這得益於 2023 年償還 11 億美元的優先票據。2 月22 日，我們打算向董事會建議 2024 年2 月應付的季度分配每單位年化增加0.20 美元，如幻燈片7 所示。

On an annualized basis, the distribution would increase from $1.07 per unit currently to $1.27 per unit, representing a 19% increase. I would also note the proposed acceleration and timing of our annual distribution increase, which would fully increase forward from our May timing to February. This is all consistent with our objective of increasing returns to our unitholders, and it reflects our continued confidence in our business, which is bolstered by the benefits from the recent bolt-on acquisitions.

按年化計算，分配將從目前的每單位 1.07 美元增加到每單位 1.27 美元，增幅為 19%。我還要指出我們年度分配增加的擬議加速和時間安排，這將從我們的五月時間到二月完全增加。這一切都符合我們增加單位持有人回報的目標，也反映了我們對我們業務的持續信心，而最近的補強收購帶來的好處增強了我們的信心。

Long term, our free cash flow generation continues to support our multiyear capital allocation framework, which continues to target annualized distribution increases of approximately $0.15 per unit each year until reaching a target common unit distribution coverage of approximately 160%.

從長遠來看，我們的自由現金流產生繼續支持我們的多年資本配置框架，該框架繼續以每年每單位約0.15 美元的年化分配增長為目標，直到達到約160% 的普通單位分配覆蓋率目標。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Al.

說完，我會把電話轉給阿爾。

Thanks, Willie. We reported third quarter adjusted EBITDA attributable to PAA of $662 million. This reflects the benefit of annual tariff escalators, higher volumes in regions outside of the Permian, contribution from recent bolt-on acquisitions and the benefit of market-based opportunities. These were partially offset by lower-than-expected Permian volumes due to weather-related impacts on gas processing capacity and field compression issues that ultimately impacted oil production and extended into the middle of August.

謝謝，威利。我們報告第三季調整後 EBITDA 歸屬於 PAA 為 6.62 億美元。這反映了年度關稅升級的好處、二疊紀以外地區銷售的增加、最近補強收購的貢獻以及基於市場的機會的好處。這些因素被二疊紀產量低於預期所部分抵消，原因是天氣對天然氣加工能力的影響以及油田壓縮問題最終影響了石油產量並持續到八月中旬。

The NGL segment benefited from stronger regional basis differentials and additional spot opportunities on both propane and butane, resulting in higher realized frac spreads. Slides 12 and 13 in today's appendix include walks, which provide more detail on our third quarter performance. A summary of our updated 2023 guidance is located on Slide 8. As a result of strong year-to-date business performance in both our crude and NGL segments and the contributions from our recently announced bolt-on acquisitions, we are raising our full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $2.6 million to $2.65 billion.

NGL 部門受益於更大的區域基差以及丙烷和丁烷的額外現貨機會，導致實現的壓裂價差更高。今天附錄中的幻燈片 12 和 13 包括步行，其中提供了有關我們第三季業績的更多詳細資訊。我們更新的 2023 年指引摘要位於幻燈片 8 中。由於我們的原油和 NGL 領域今年迄今為止的強勁業務表現以及我們最近宣布的補強收購的貢獻，我們正在提高全年業績2023 年EBITDA 指導調整為260 萬美元至26.5 億美元。

Our updated outlook factors in lower-than-expected Permian production, predominantly driven by the weather-related impacts. We continue to expect year-over-year growth in our crude oil segment driven by tariff volume increases and tariff escalation. For the NGL segment, we remain highly hedged and expect a typical seasonal step-up in sales as we enter the winter months. Shifting to capital allocation, as illustrated on Slide 9.

我們最新的展望認為二疊紀產量低於預期，這主要是受到天氣相關影響的影響。我們繼續預計，在關稅量增加和關稅升級的推動下，我們的原油業務將實現同比增長。對於液化天然氣領域，我們仍然高度對沖，並預計隨著進入冬季，銷售將出現典型的季節性成長。轉向資本配置，如投影片 9 所示。

For 2023, we expect to generate $2.45 billion in cash flow from operations and $1.45 billion of free cash flow which takes into account the cash outlay for our recently announced bolt-on acquisitions. This results in $450 million of free cash flow after distributions available for net debt reduction. We continue to self-fund $325 million of investment capital net to PAA, which is consistent with previous guidance.

到 2023 年，我們預計將產生 24.5 億美元的營運現金流和 14.5 億美元的自由現金流，其中考慮到我們最近宣布的補強收購的現金支出。這導致在分配後可用於淨債務削減的 4.5 億美元自由現金流。我們繼續向 PAA 自籌 3.25 億美元的投資資本淨額，這與先前的指引一致。

We have increased our maintenance capital budget by $15 million to $210 million net to PAA for 2023. This reflects additional maintenance capital for recent bolt-on acquisitions and higher integrity maintenance activity for the year. Before turning the call back to Willie, I wanted to share a few directional comments for 2024 with formal guidance to come early next year. We continue to expect growth in our crude oil business primarily driven by operating leverage, continued Permian growth, tariff escalation and full year contributions from bolt-on acquisitions.

我們已將 2023 年 PAA 的維護資本預算增加了 1500 萬美元，達到淨額 2.1 億美元。這反映了最近的補強收購和今年更高的完整性維護活動的額外維護資本。在將電話轉回威利之前，我想分享一些 2024 年的方向性評論，並在明年初發布正式指導。我們繼續預期原油業務的成長主要由營運槓桿、二疊紀盆地持續成長、關稅升級和補強收購的全年貢獻所推動。

In our NGL segment, we have seen volatility in frac spread but have made meaningful progress in hedging over 2/3 of our expected 2024 frac exposed volumes at a spread above $0.60 per gallon. Additionally, we should benefit from the absence of planned turnaround activity next year, which negatively impacted commodity exposed volumes in 2023.

在我們的 NGL 領域，我們看到了壓裂價差的波動，但在對沖 2/3 的預期 2024 年壓裂暴露量（價差高於每加侖 0.60 美元）方面取得了有意義的進展。此外，我們應該受益於明年沒有計劃的周轉活動，這對 2023 年的大宗商品暴露量產生了負面影響。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Willie.

說完，我會把電話轉回給威利。

Thanks, Al. Before finishing today's call, I want to reiterate a few key messages. First, current global events have highlighted and reaffirmed the importance of hydrocarbons in everyday life. Plains remains very well positioned as North American supply will continue to be critical to global energy security, affordability and reliability. Secondly, and importantly, our business remains strong. We continue to execute our strategy of generating meaningful cash flow, maintaining capital discipline, reducing leverage and increasing return of capital to our unitholders. And lastly, we continue to have confidence in our business which is built on an integrated flexible asset base with operating leverage across our system.

謝謝，艾爾。在結束今天的電話會議之前，我想重申一些關鍵訊息。首先，目前的全球事件凸顯並重申了碳氫化合物在日常生活中的重要性。平原地區仍然處於有利地位，因為北美供應將繼續對全球能源安全、可負擔性和可靠性至關重要。其次，也是重要的是，我們的業務仍然強勁。我們繼續執行產生有意義的現金流、維持資本紀律、降低槓桿和增加單位持有人資本回報的策略。最後，我們繼續對我們的業務充滿信心，我們的業務建立在整合靈活的資產基礎上，並在我們的系統中具有營運槓桿作用。

We appreciate your continued interest and support, and we look forward to fielding your questions as well as giving you further formal updates on our earnings call for 2024 in February.

感謝您持續的關注和支持，我們期待回答您的問題，並為您提供 2 月份 2024 年收益電話會議的進一步正式更新。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Blake to lead us into Q&A.

接下來，我會將電話轉給 Blake，讓他帶領我們進行問答。

Thanks, Willie. (Operator Instructions) Additionally, the IR team will be available to address any additional questions you may have.

謝謝，威利。 （操作員說明）此外，IR 團隊將隨時解答您可能遇到的任何其他問題。

Norma, I believe we're ready to open up the call to questions.

諾瑪，我相信我們已經準備好接受提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Michael Blum with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行的麥可布魯姆（Michael Blum）。

I wanted to first ask just about the bolt-on acquisitions of the Permian. Do you expect this to be kind of normal course? Do you see more opportunities to consolidate in the Permian? And then kind of second part of that is do you see -- should we expect to see any kind of -- any of this type of activity outside of the Permian.

我想先詢問有關二疊紀盆地的補強收購的情況。您認為這是正常的過程嗎？您認為二疊紀有更多整合機會嗎？第二部分是你是否看到——我們是否應該期望看到任何類型的——二疊紀以外的任何此類活動。

Yes. Let me speak to the bolt-ons, Michael. It's a good question. As you know, we've got a great footprint that allows us to capture synergies and opportunities that are out there. We do think there are more opportunities. We're going to be very, very disciplined in how we approach it. The valuations are going to be key. And I think you'll see continued focus on that. We look at all opportunities because our interest are in the best interest of our unitholders but I think you'll see both bolt-on opportunities in both the Permian and outside of the Permian.

是的。讓我跟螺栓談談，麥可。這是一個好問題。如您所知，我們擁有廣泛的足跡，使我們能夠抓住現有的協同效應和機會。我們確實認為還有更多機會。我們將非常非常自律地對待它。估值將成為關鍵。我認為您會看到人們繼續關注這一點。我們會關注所有機會，因為我們的利益符合單位持有人的最大利益，但我認為您會在二疊紀和二疊紀之外看到補充機會。

Okay. Great. And then my second question is probably related to the first. The rationale for reducing the leverage target, maybe you could just walk through that? And is that in any way related to what you see down the road in terms of M&A and having the flexibility to act there.

好的。偉大的。然後我的第二個問題可能與第一個問題有關。降低槓桿目標的理由，或許你可以簡單講一下？這是否與您在併購方面看到的未來​​以及在那裡採取行動的靈活性有關。

Michael, this is Al. Our view was, as we intended to be running the company at a lower leverage than what we had been historically. Part of the reason for committing to it publicly like we have is our intent was to do it. Two, we believe the broader energy sector is and will be running with lower leverage. And we want to actually complete and get our upgrades to mid-BBB. And we think this range that we've established puts us solidly in that with some flexibility for that and recognizing, again, that our intent is to run the company a little bit more conservatively with the balance sheet.

邁克爾，這是艾爾。我們的觀點是，因為我們打算以低於歷史水準的槓桿率來經營公司。像我們這樣公開承諾的部分原因是我們的意圖是這樣做。第二，我們相信更廣泛的能源產業現在和將來都會以較低的槓桿率運作。我們希望真正完成並升級到 BBB 中期。我們認為，我們所建立的這個範圍使我們牢固地處於這一點，並具有一定的靈活性，並再次認識到，我們的目的是在資產負債表上更加保守地經營公司。

One moment for our next question, please. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Reynolds with UBS.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布萊恩雷諾茲。

Thanks for the prepared remarks on the impacts on volumes in the Permian's quarter related to weather, it sounds like -- but kind of just wanted to follow up on the Permian outlook here. First part of the question is, are you seeing any recent crude gathering acquisitions in the basin kind of impact volumes for the quarter or going forward? And then second part, maybe a little more longer-dated question. We've heard some very constructive Permian growth expectations into '24 into '25. I'm just kind of curious if you can kind of give us an early look of what you're seeing for Permian activity as we look ahead to next year.

感謝您準備好的關於天氣對二疊紀季度產量影響的評論，這聽起來像是——但只是想跟進二疊紀的前景。問題的第一部分是，您是否認為該盆地最近的原油採集收購會對本季或未來的產量產生影響？然後是第二部分，也許是一個更長期的問題。我們聽到了一些非常有建設性的二疊紀經濟成長預期，預計將持續到 24 年至 25 年。我只是有點好奇，在我們展望明年時，您能否讓我們提前了解您所看到的二疊紀活動。

Brian, I'm glad you asked the question. This is Willie. We'll give -- first off, we'll give you a formal guidance in February on 2024 in the Permian, but I'll give you some snapshots here. This has been a little bit of a strange year in that we had some weather issues in the summer that really impacted both second and third quarter. Our original guidance for the year was 500,000 barrels a day growth exit to exit.

布萊恩，我很高興你問這個問題。這是威利。首先，我們將在 2024 年 2 月為二疊紀盆地提供正式指導，但我將在這裡給您一些快照。今年有點奇怪，因為我們在夏天遇到了一些天氣問題，確實影響了第二季和第三季。我們今年最初的指導是每天增加 50 萬桶退出。

We updated on our last call that we thought it was going to be a little bit below that. Our views now is it's probably in that $350 to $400 range for the year. But the thing I wanted to share with you is if you look at our October volumes and gathering, this may address your question, we're actually 175,000 barrels a day higher in October than we were for the third quarter. So it really gives us confidence in the fourth quarter.

我們更新了上次電話會議的情況，我們認為價格會略低於該水平。我們現在的觀點是，今年的價格可能在 350 美元到 400 美元之間。但我想與您分享的是，如果您查看我們 10 月份的產量和收集情況，這可能會解決您的問題，實際上 10 月份我們每天的產量比第三季度高 175,000 桶。所以這確實讓我們對第四季充滿信心。

You never can perfectly predict the future, but we are seeing increased volumes as we start the fourth quarter off and then certainly, a lot of the recent announcements, particularly with 1 of the large transactions in 1 of the very large super majors really lends support and aligns our view of the Permian going to be around for a long, long time as we go forward.

你永遠無法完美地預測未來，但隨著第四季度的開始，我們看到交易量有所增加，當然，最近的許多公告，特別是其中一個非常大的超級專業公司的其中一項大型交易確實提供了支持並與我們對二疊紀將在未來很長一段時間內存在的觀點保持一致。

Great. Appreciate that. And maybe to touch on the distribution, it seems to come up a little bit above expectations from last year's capital allocation update. So kind of curious if you can refresh us. Are there any structural changes that we'd be thinking about? Or is kind of targeting that 160% coverage over a multiyear framework, still the right way to think about it? And how ultimately some of these acquisitions impact that distribution outlook going forward.

偉大的。感謝。也許談到分配，它似乎略高於去年資本配置更新的預期。很好奇你是否能讓我們煥然一新。我們會考慮進行任何結構性改變嗎？或者，在多年框架內以 160% 的覆蓋率為目標，仍然是正確的思考方式嗎？以及其中一些收購最終如何影響未來的分銷前景。

Yes, this is Al. We still are committed in the future for the $0.15 annual increase in the 160% coverage at the common level. Part of the reason for moving it up and the extra nickel list is it is related to the acquisitions that we've completed. They're accretive. Again, we've targeted hurdle rates that will bring good accretion for these bolt-on transactions and we also have seen strong performance out of our business.

是的，這是艾爾。我們仍承諾未來將普通水準的 160% 覆蓋率每年增加 0.15 美元。將其提升和額外鎳清單的部分原因是它與我們已完成的收購有關。它們具有增值性。同樣，我們的目標門檻率將為這些補充交易帶來良好的成長，而且我們也看到了我們業務的強勁表現。

But once we complete this, we're back to the $0.15 and 160% coverage. We think the 160% coverage allows us to basically fund investment capital going forward and number of small bolt-ons in the future without actually needing to raise external money. So kind of live within our own cash flow means.

但一旦我們完成此操作，我們就會回到 0.15 美元和 160% 的覆蓋範圍。我們認為 160% 的覆蓋率使我們基本上能夠為未來的投資資本和未來的小型補充項目提供資金，而實際上不需要籌集外部資金。就這樣，我們的生活就在我們自己的現金流範圍內。

One moment for our next question, please. Our next question comes from the line of Gabriel Moreen with Mizuho.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自 Gabriel Moreen 和 Mizuho 的對話。

Maybe, Willie, if I can just ask a follow-up on Michael's question about recurring bolt-on M&A. You mentioned looking at things outside the Permian. Can you maybe elaborate on which basins you might think about as far as doing those bolt-ons and is doing something like the Oryx JV structure appealing to you in other basins outside the Permian as well?

也許，威利，如果我能就麥可關於經常性補充併購的問題提出一個後續問題的話。你提到要關註二疊紀以外的事物。您能否詳細說明您可能會考慮哪些盆地進行這些螺栓連接，並且正在二疊紀以外的其他盆地進行像 Oryx JV 結構這樣對您有吸引力的事情？

Gabriel, this is Jeremy Goebel. I would say we're structure agnostic. We're just trying to basically garner the most synergies in a way that works for us and the counterparty. Where we would focus? It's where we have strength. I'd say, from our vantage point, we have gathering assets in all the core basins where we have a strength in our marketing business, our pipeline business and our terminals, we can add value to assets. We'll continue to look there. So if you look across our footprint, where we have strength is an area where we think we can add value and extract synergies into accretive deals and the manner that Al just mentioned, that's where we're going to target.

加布里埃爾，這是傑里米·戈貝爾。我想說我們是結構不可知論者。我們只是試圖以一種對我們和交易對手都有利的方式基本上獲得最大的協同效應。我們要關注哪裡？這是我們有力量的地方。我想說，從我們的角度來看，我們在所有核心盆地都聚集了資產，我們在行銷業務、管道業務、碼頭業務上都有優勢，我們可以為資產增值。我們將繼續在那裡尋找。因此，如果你看看我們的足跡，我們有實力的領域就是我們認為可以增加價值並從增值交易中提取協同效應的領域，以及艾爾剛才提到的方式，這就是我們的目標。

And then maybe if I can ask about sort of the hedging of the frac spread exposure heading into '24. Just you mentioned you had put a lot of the spread exposure to that at this point? Are you close to that 80% level that you're targeting? Do you see yourself getting there near term? Or are you kind of leaving some stuff open in anticipation of some strength?

然後也許我可以詢問一下進入 24 年的壓裂價差風險的對沖。您剛才提到您此時已經投入了大量的價差曝險？您是否接近目標的 80% 水準？您認為自己近期能實現這個目標嗎？或者你會保留一些東西以期待某種力量？

Yes, Gabe, we're not going to disclose the exact number, but Al's comments on well over 60% hedged was really indicative of -- that we've got a good portion of this hedged at good values, and we'll give a further update when we get into February.

是的，Gabe，我們不會透露確切的數字，但 Al 對超過 60% 的對沖的評論確實表明——我們已經以良好的價值對沖了很大一部分，我們將給出當我們進入二月時會有進一步的更新。

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Keith Stanley with Wolfe Research.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的基斯‧史丹利。

Follow-up on the -- sorry, again, on the frac spread. I just want to make sure I understand this right. So the 60% is hedged above $0.60 a gallon, can you say directionally, I think 2023 was a little higher than that when you did your plan? Just trying to think directionally where that sits on the $0.60.

抱歉，再次，關於壓裂價差的後續行動。我只是想確保我理解正確。因此，60% 的對沖高於每加侖 0.60 美元，你能定向地說，我認為 2023 年比你制定計劃時的水平要高一點嗎？只是嘗試方向性地思考 0.60 美元的位置。

Yes, Keith, this is Willie again. For 2023, we were very well hedged. We actually put these hedges on proactively in late 2022. So if you think about the weighted average value of that hedge is a little bit over $0.70. So if you compare it to what we actually hedged in 2023, it's circa a dime lower than that. If you think about the impact of that, that's roughly plus or minus $70 million. And as Al pointed out, we also have a turnaround -- we had a turnaround this year that next year that we won't be having. So that may give a little better indication of where the NGL business is.

是的，基思，這又是威利。 2023 年，我們進行了很好的對沖。實際上，我們在 2022 年底就主動進行了這些對沖。因此，如果您考慮一下該對沖的加權平均值略高於 0.70 美元。因此，如果你將其與我們在 2023 年實際對沖的金額進行比較，你會發現它大約低了一毛錢。如果您考慮一下其影響，大約會增加或減少 7000 萬美元。正如艾爾指出的那樣，我們也實現了轉變——今年我們實現了轉變，而明年我們將不會有這種轉變。因此，這可能會更好地表明液化天然氣業務的狀況。

That's very helpful. The second 1 I know the company has talked about the preferreds not being a near-term priority. Just curious with the official leverage target now at 3.25 to 3.75x? Under certain circumstances, would you consider going above the leverage target in order to repurchase the preferreds? Or if you were to take out the preferred at some point down the road, would you need to still stay within that new leverage band?

這非常有幫助。第二個 1 我知道公司已經談到優先事項不是近期的優先事項。只是對現在 3.25 至 3.75 倍的官方槓桿目標感到好奇嗎？在某些情況下，您是否會考慮以高於槓桿目標的價格來回購優先股？或者，如果您要在未來某個時刻取出優先股，您是否仍需要保持在新的槓桿範圍內？

This is Al. There's been no change in our thinking around the preferreds. Debt markets are fairly high, like an issue in a new 10-year would be 6.5x, 6.75x. It's a long way of saying that the rates on the preferreds are still fairly attractive in our view relative to our weighted average cost of capital. Our intent would not be to meaningfully increase leverage to take those preferreds out. So it's hard to say hypothetically what you might do a few years down the road.

這是艾爾。我們對首選的想法沒有改變。債務市場相當高，例如新的 10 年期債券的發行率為 6.5 倍、6.75 倍。從我們的角度來看，相對於我們的加權平均資本成本，優先股的利率仍然相當有吸引力。我們的目的並不是為了有意義地增加槓桿來取消這些優先股。因此，很難假設幾年後你會做什麼。

But we won't sacrifice our financial flexibility to reduce them again because they're not that high relative to our cost of capital. We think our weighted average cost of capital today is in the 11% to 12% range. And the preferred on the same weighting are 200-plus basis points less. So again -- but there will be 1 day where maybe we will be able to take them out, but we don't want to sacrifice financial flexibility.

但我們不會犧牲我們的財務彈性來再次減少它們，因為它們相對於我們的資本成本來說並沒有那麼高。我們認為目前的加權平均資本成本在 11% 至 12% 範圍內。而同等權重下的首選則低200多個基點。再說一次——但有一天我們也許能夠把它們拿出來，但我們不想犧牲財務彈性。

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Neel Mitra with Bank of America.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自 Neel Mitra 與美國銀行的對話。

I wanted to touch on the Permian long-haul volumes. It seems like they fell a little bit more disproportionately relative to gathering and intra-basin in the quarter versus the second quarter? And also, how did basin perform just given the low Cushing inventories this quarter?

我想談談二疊紀長途運輸量。與第二季相比，本季相對於聚集和流域內的下降似乎更加不成比例？此外，考慮到本季度庫欣庫存較低，盆地的表現如何？

Neel, it's Jeremy Goebel. What I would say is on the long-haul volumes. That was just some market dynamics in Corpus. It was cheaper for the shippers to buy at Corpus than it was to ship the barrel from Midland, so it was just an election by some of the shippers on the pipeline, but it's transitory. The pipeline is going into the fourth quarter in line with where they've historically been and demand is robust longer term for the shipments.

尼爾，我是傑瑞米‧戈貝爾。我想說的是長途運輸量。這只是 Corpus 的一些市場動態。對於托運人來說，在 Corpus 購買桶裝比從米德蘭運送桶子便宜，所以這只是管道上一些托運人的選舉，但它是暫時的。該管道將在第四季度進入，與歷史上的情況一致，而且從長遠來看，出貨量需求強勁。

Basin is a similar story, there was -- as the inventories come down, there was less need for movements in that direction. But directionally, as those inventories go down, there's more bolt-on basin.

盆地也是一個類似的故事，隨著庫存下降，朝這個方向移動的需求就會減少。但從方向來看，隨著庫存下降，螺栓固定式盆會增加。

Got it. Perfect. And then if I could ask generally your -- what you're seeing in the basin on growth dynamics. I know most of the gas processors had flat volumes from May through August, just like yourselves. But can you touch upon which regions got affected the most? Was it the New Mexico Delaware that was impacted the most versus the other basins? And then also what you're seeing from the producers during the heat that would have impacted their side versus the infrastructure side, understanding that you guys are up and running again in October with strong volumes.

知道了。完美的。然後我可以問一下你們在盆地中看到的成長動態嗎？我知道大多數天然氣加工商從五月到八月的產量都持平，就像你們一樣。但您能談談哪些地區受到的影響最嚴重嗎？與其他盆地相比，新墨西哥州特拉華州受到的影響最大嗎？然後，您還可以在高溫期間從生產商那裡看到，這將影響他們的方面與基礎設施方面的情況，了解您在 10 月再次啟動並運行，產量強勁。

Thanks, Neel. It was that Stateline area north into New Mexico. I think the other dynamic there was the -- some of the issues around flaring and stopping of flaring. So it all hit at once, and it was within a 3-month period. But the big surge in volume is coming from those same regions and part of the Northern Midland Basin. So I'd say it's recovering and then some and we see that momentum carrying based on the connections we have made in November, and we'll make this month and next month and into next year that momentum should continue.

謝謝，尼爾。這是斯德特萊恩地區向北進入新墨西哥州。我認為另一個動態是關於燃燒和停止燃燒的一些問題。所以這一切都是一下子發生的，而且是在三個月的時間內。但產量的大幅成長來自這些地區和北米德蘭盆地的部分地區。所以我想說它正在復蘇，然後是一些，我們看到基於我們在 11 月建立的聯繫所帶來的勢頭，我們將在本月、下個月​​和明年繼續保持這種勢頭。

And Jeremy, I don't know if I got a response on basin, how that was running during the quarter, if you don't mind commenting on that.

傑里米（Jeremy），我不知道我是否得到了有關盆地的回應，該季度的運行情況如何，如果您不介意對此發表評論的話。

Sure. It was in line with expectations and as inventory strain, we would expect the volumes to increase.

當然。這符合預期，由於庫存緊張，我們預計銷量會增加。

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Doug Irwin with Citi.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Doug Irwin。

Just a couple of follow-ups on guidance. So maybe I'll ask them both at once. First, I'm just wondering if you could kind of help bridge the facts that the EBITDA guidance moved higher, but then we saw cash from operations and free cash flow moved a bit lower, I'm sure the acquisitions have an impact on that. Are there any other sort of moving pieces you can point to there? And then again, kind of on the implied 4Q guidance, the midpoint implies a step down versus this quarter.

只是關於指導的一些後續行動。所以也許我會同時問他們兩個。首先，我只是想知道您是否可以幫助彌合 EBITDA 指導值上升的事實，但隨後我們看到來自營運的現金和自由現金流略有下降，我確信收購會對此產生影響。您也可以指出其他類型的移動部件嗎？再說一次，在隱含的第四季指引中，中點意味著較本季有所下降。

Just wondering if you can kind of help reconcile that step down versus some of the tailwinds in the year-end despite these acquisitions and probably Permian growth rebounding a bit.

只是想知道，儘管有這些收購，而且二疊紀盆地的增長可能會有所反彈，但您是否可以幫助協調這一降級與年底的一些順風車。

This is Al. I'll take a shot at the first one. Yes, between the free cash flow and the cash from operations, effectively, the acquisitions reduced cash flow from the free cash flow number by roughly the $135 million that we described. The other 2, higher EBITDA has been -- in our forecast is offset by higher taxes as well as our assumed working capital and merchant needs. Again, which is all kind of timing related.

這是艾爾。我會嘗試第一個。是的，在自由現金流和營運現金流之間，收購實際上使自由現金流中的現金流減少了我們所描述的約 1.35 億美元。在我們的預測中，另外兩個較高的 EBITDA 被較高的稅收以及我們假設的營運資金和商業需求所抵消。同樣，這與時間有關。

Those were really the 3 things I would point to. As to kind of guidance, third quarter to fourth quarter, again, we feel like the midpoint of our range, we do see quarterly flux between them. It would probably be better to take offline with the IR team kind of any more micro detailing type of discussion.

這確實是我要指出的三件事。至於指導類型，第三季度到第四季度，我們再次感覺到這是我們範圍的中點，我們確實看到它們之間的季度變化。最好與 IR 團隊進行線下討論，進行更微觀的細節類型的討論。

The next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan Securities.

下一個問題來自摩根大通證券的 Jeremy Tonet。

This is Vrathan Reddy on for Jeremy. I think it's been hit on a couple of times in the call already, but just to clarify, are you guys able to disclose what part of the guidance raise is attributable to the base business strength, given that you guys had already pointed the high in last quarter versus the incremental contribution for the bolt-on acquisitions.

我是傑里米 (Jeremy) 的弗拉森·雷迪 (Vrathan Reddy)。我認為這個問題已經在電話會議中提到過幾次了，但為了澄清一下，你們是否能夠透露指導提高的哪一部分歸因於基本業務實力，因為你們已經指出了高點上季度與補強收購的增量貢獻相比。

Sure. This is Jeremy. It's roughly $10 million to $15 million from the acquisitions.

當然。這是傑里米。收購費用約 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元。

Okay. Perfect. And then for the second one, last quarter, you talked about Canadian optimization opportunities. and maybe utilizing some of that underutilized capacity at Sarnia. So curious to hear updated thoughts here and what you guys are seeing in terms of low capital, smaller growth optimization opportunities.

好的。完美的。然後，對於第二個，上個季度，您談到了加拿大的最佳化機會。也許可以利用薩尼亞的一些未充分利用的能力。很想聽到這裡的最新想法以及你們在低資本、較小的成長優化機會方面看到的內容。

Yes, I'll take a stab at that. I mean, I think as we shared on last call, our East West system together has been -- it gives us an advantage because we've got spare capacity in the East and that was a key part of our ability to be able to move quickly on our debottleneck in the West. So we continue to work on a lot of need opportunities around optimization, both of our Empress Complex, Fort Sask and Sarnia.

是的，我會嘗試一下。我的意思是，我認為正如我們在上次電話會議中所分享的那樣，我們的東西方系統一起為我們帶來了優勢，因為我們在東部有閒置產能，這是我們能夠移動的能力的關鍵部分迅速消除我們在西方的瓶頸。因此，我們繼續致力於優化皇后綜合大樓、薩斯克堡和薩尼亞的許多需求機會。

And I think the thing to take away from it is no big announcements on projects other than what we've already announced, but there's clearly capacity there that we can continue to optimize and utilize without having to put greenfield projects in.

我認為除了我們已經宣布的項目之外，沒有什麼重大的項目公告，但我們顯然有能力繼續優化和利用，而無需投入綠地項目。

Our next question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Neal Dingmann。

Just 1 first quick one. Could you just give an update? I think you've talked about this in the past, just on the minimum volume commitments where you stand there and kind of as you enter '24, how those sit?

只有 1 第一個快速的。能提供一下更新嗎？我想你過去已經討論過這個問題，只是關於你所處的最低數量承諾，當你進入 24 世紀時，這些承諾怎麼樣？

I'm not sure I understand the question. Can you repeat it? The minimum volume committed on long haul or...

我不確定我是否理解這個問題。你能重複一下嗎？長途或...的最小承諾量

Yes, just on the long haul, yes, sir.

是的，只是從長遠來看，是的，先生。

Sure. What I would say is we continue to have constructive dialogues with the customers. Nothing to highlight at this point. Enterprise announcement is obviously additive to that equation and market dynamics are such that with the continued acquisitions, enhancing relationships with customers, we feel we're in a good place and we'll give you guys an update when it's appropriate. We do believe in the basin long term in these acquisitions and improved recoveries should all support that ongoing growth through the decade and continued contracting in the pipelines.

當然。我想說的是，我們將繼續與客戶進行建設性對話。此時沒有什麼值得強調的。企業公告顯然是對這個等式的補充，而且市場動態是這樣的，隨著不斷的收購，增強與客戶的關係，我們覺得我們處於一個好的位置，我們會在適當的時候給你們提供更新。我們確實相信，從長遠來看，這些收購和改善的採收率都應該支持該盆地十年來的持續成長和管道的持續收縮。

Great. And then just on a second, could you give the latest on the continued Canadian opportunities such as in Edmonton or Ontario around like that NGL extraction plant sites or some other things you have?

偉大的。那麼，您能否介紹一下加拿大持續存在的機會的最新情況，例如埃德蒙頓或安大略省周圍的 NGL 提取廠地點或您擁有的其他一些東西？

Sure. Broadly in Canada around the NGL system, I think the opportunities you're going to see is the Fort Sask is constrained the opportunity for East-West movements and higher margins and other things to purchase additional NGLs. There are opportunities throughout next year that we'll see, I don't know if that's what you're asking for, but it seems to me that there are margin enhancement opportunities around the system, and we'll look to use our system to capture them.

當然。總的來說，在加拿大的 NGL 系統周圍，我認為您將看到的機會是薩斯克堡限制了東西向流動的機會以及更高的利潤和其他購買額外 NGL 的機會。明年我們會看到一些機會，我不知道這是否是您所要求的，但在我看來，系統周圍存在利潤提高的機會，我們將尋求使用我們的系統來捕獲他們。

Yes, Neal, the other thing I would add is as we think about our Canadian footprint, we're very bullish on Western Canadian gas production. So as that increases, and there's additional takeaway to the West Coast, we think it encourages additional production. And that gives us the opportunity to be able to capture more NGLs out of a wet stream.

是的，尼爾，我要補充的另一件事是，當我們考慮我們在加拿大的足跡時，我們非常看好加拿大西部的天然氣生產。因此，隨著產量的增加，以及西海岸的額外外賣，我們認為這會鼓勵額外的生產。這使我們有機會從濕流中捕獲更多的液化天然氣。

Great detail. That's exactly I was looking for.

很詳細。這正是我一直在尋找的。

Our next question comes from Sunil Sibal with Seaport Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Sunil Sibal。

Thanks for all the clarity on the call. So just wanted to understand some of the dynamics on the EBITDA guidance increase. So it seems like from what you've indicated $10 million to $15 million impact of bolt-on acquisitions and at the same time, you're reducing your volume expectation. So is it fair to assume your unit margins are going up? And then any significant driver of that? Obviously, tariffs are increasing, but that was probably well known.

感謝您在通話中的所有澄清。所以只是想了解 EBITDA 指導成長的一些動態。因此，從您所說的補充收購的影響來看，似乎是 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元，同時您正在降低銷售預期。那麼假設您的單位利潤率正在上升是否公平？那麼有什麼重要的驅動因素嗎？顯然，關稅正在增加，但這可能是眾所周知的。

Yes, I'll take a shot at it. This is Al. In the crude side, we have seen and are expecting more favorable market-based opportunities. We've seen over the year, higher movements into and out of Cushing. Our non-Permian assets have performed well and then clearly the contribution from the acquisitions. In the NGL segment, we've seen benefit from higher, better improved NGL yields. This is likely temporary in the AECO gas stream as well as more attractive differentials West to East, as Jeremy mentioned. So those are really the things that are kind of driving it.

是的，我會嘗試一下。這是艾爾。在原油方面，我們已經看到並期待更多有利的市場機會。一年來，我們看到進出庫欣的航班量增加。我們的非二疊紀資產表現良好，收購的貢獻顯而易見。在液化天然氣領域，我們看到了更高、更好的液化天然氣產量所帶來的好處。正如 Jeremy 所提到的，這在 AECO 氣流中可能是暫時的，而且從西到東的差異也更有吸引力。所以這些確實是推動它的因素。

One thing to note, though, on the -- we view the Permian reduction as transitory. This is building momentum into the fourth quarter and into next year. So the view that it slowed down our expectations long term a slowdown if not, this is a function of transitory timing.

不過，需要注意的一件事是──我們認為二疊紀減少是暫時的。這正在為第四季和明年積蓄動力。因此，認為它減緩了我們對長期經濟放緩的預期，即使沒有放緩，也是暫時時間的函數。

Understood. And then on the pipeline loss alone with all the recent acquisitions that you've done, could you remind us what is your total exposure on crude with the pipeline loss alone?

明白了。然後，就管道損失以及您最近完成的所有收購而言，您能否提醒我們，僅考慮管道損失，您對原油的總敞口是多少？

Sunil, it's Blake. Historically, what we've said is 2 million to 3 million barrels and we haven't provided an update to that. I think it's correct to think as more volumes ultimately make their way into the system. That could increase over time, and we'll give an update when appropriate.

蘇尼爾，我是布萊克。從歷史上看，我們所說的是 200 萬至 300 萬桶，但我們尚未提供更新。我認為隨著越來越多的捲最終進入系統，這種想法是正確的。隨著時間的推移，這種情況可能會增加，我們將在適當的時候提供更新。

Our next question comes from the line of John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的約翰·麥凱。

I wanted to touch on kind of broader picture for Permian long haul. We've had some changes in the market recently, Seminole coming out of service, the Gray Oak open season seems like it's about to go forward. I guess I'd just be curious to hear from your side where you see kind of overall balances for the market over the next couple of years and whether or not we could see more conversions out of crude service and to something else?

我想談談二疊紀長期的更廣闊的前景。最近市場發生了一些變化，塞米諾爾即將停止服務，灰橡樹開放季節似乎即將繼續。我想我只是想聽聽您的意見，您認為未來幾年市場的整體平衡情況如何，以及我們是否可以看到更多的原油服務轉變為其他服務？

Yes, John, this is Willie. It's -- there's a lot of puts and takes to this. When I think about the moves that are -- the proposed possible projects, these are, what I would call, smaller increases, maybe 100,000 to 200,000 barrels a day. When we think longer term, with the growth of the Permian, we just -- we're consistent with our views that capacity is going to get tight. I don't think new build long-haul lines are going to get built.

是的，約翰，這是威利。這有很多變化。當我考慮這些舉措時——擬議的可能項目，我稱之為較小的增量，也許每天增加 100,000 至 200,000 桶。當我們從長遠來看，隨著二疊紀盆地的成長，我們的觀點是一致的，即產能將變得緊張。我認為不會建造新的長途線路。

With the Seminole announcement, it's taken a little bit out. So there's a lot of puts and takes against it. But long term, our views have not changed. It's still going to be tightening capacity in a market that's going to be harder and hard to build long-haul lines.

隨著塞米諾爾的宣布，它被取消了一點。因此，有很多反對意見。但從長遠來看，我們的觀點並沒有改變。在建造長途線路變得越來越困難的市場中，運力仍會收緊。

All right. That's fair. Maybe shifting gears. You touched on the working capital a little bit in the quarter. And I know it's transitory and should come back. It was just larger than we -- it looks like we've seen in a couple of quarters. Is there a -- when we're thinking about capital returns next year, potentially buybacks.

好的。這還算公平。也許換檔。您在本季稍微談到了營運資金。我知道這是暫時的，應該回來。它只是比我們大——看起來我們已經見過幾個季度了。當我們考慮明年的資本回報時，是否有潛在的回購？

Is there a kind of minimum level of cash you'd want to see on the balance sheet? And does this quarter's kind of larger working capital draw, affect that math at all?

您希望在資產負債表上看到最低現金水準嗎？本季較大的營運資金消耗是否會影響數學計算？

This is Al. We do see a fairly significant quarter-over-quarter working capital flexes. And we used the word working capital as if we're building inventory and we're borrowing short term on our credit facilities, it's a working capital use, although technically, they're both in working capital. So it's kind of working capital and merchant requirements.

這是艾爾。我們確實看到了相當大的季度環比營運資金彈性。我們使用「營運資金」這個詞就好像我們在建立庫存，並且我們在利用信貸額度借入短期資金，這是一種營運資金用途，儘管從技術上講，它們都屬於營運資金。這是營運資金和商家的要求。

We do see quarter-to-quarter fairly significant moves generally over a 12-month period, all those normalize out. We normally model assuming lower cash balances than what we've been running and we'll be showing that when we show you the year-end balance sheet because the cap balances will have been consumed with the note we just paid down here in October. But normally, we would model about $100 million of cash on the balance sheet, and we use our credit facilities in the commercial paper markets to balance this out. And it is timing. We end up reverting back to more of a normalized balance over the course of a few quarters.

我們確實看到，在 12 個月的時間內，季度與季度之間普遍存在相當重大的變動，所有這些都已正常化。我們通常會假設現金餘額低於我們一直在運行的現金餘額，當我們向您展示年終資產負債表時，我們將展示這一點，因為餘額上限將與我們剛剛在10 月份在這裡支付的票據一起消耗掉。但通常情況下，我們會在資產負債表上模擬約 1 億美元的現金，並利用我們在商業票據市場上的信貸額度來平衡這一點。這是時機。我們最終在幾個季度內恢復到更多正常化的平衡。

Thank you for your questions. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating in today's call. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

謝謝您的提問。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。祝大家有美好的一天。