奧的斯電梯 (OTIS) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Otis' Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being carried live on the Internet and recorded for replay. Presentation materials are available for download from Otis' website at www.otis.com.

早安，歡迎參加奧的斯 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。該通話正在網路上進行直播，並進行錄音以供重播。示範資料可從奧的斯網站 www.otis.com 下載。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Rednor, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係高級總監 Michael Rednor。請繼續。

Thank you, Michelle. Welcome to Otis' Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. On the call with me today are Judy Marks, Chair, CEO and President; and Anurag Maheshwari, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝你，米歇爾。歡迎參加奧的斯 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我通話的有董事長、執行長兼總裁朱迪‧馬克斯 (Judy Marks)；以及執行副總裁兼財務長阿努拉格‧馬赫什瓦里 (Anurag Maheshwari)。

Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding restructuring and significant nonrecurring item. A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the appendix of the webcast. We also remind listeners that the presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Otis' SEC filings, including our Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

請注意，除非另有說明，公司將討論持續經營的結果，不包括重組和重大非經常性項目。這些措施的協調可以在網路廣播的附錄中找到。我們也提醒聽眾，簡報包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性。奧的斯向 SEC 提交的文件（包括我們的 10-K 表和 10-Q 表季度報告）提供了可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的重要因素的詳細資訊。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Judy.

現在我想把電話轉給朱迪​​。

Thank you, Mike, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. We hope that everyone listening is safe and well. Starting with Q3 highlights on Slide 3. Otis achieved strong results in the third quarter, marking 9 months of solid execution in 2023. We grew organic sales 5.2%, with growth in both segments, expanded operating profit margin 60 basis points and achieved 19% adjusted EPS growth.

謝謝你，麥克，也謝謝大家加入我們。我們希望聆聽的每個人都安全健康。從幻燈片3 上的第三季度亮點開始。奧的斯在第三季度取得了強勁業績，標誌著2023 年9 個月的穩健執行。隨著兩個部門的成長，我們的有機銷售額增長了5.2%，營業利潤率擴大了60 個基點，實現了19%調整後每股盈餘成長。

This marks the 11th consecutive quarter of Service organic sales growth and the 15th quarter where our Service operating profit margin has expanded, demonstrating the consistency in our execution and the strength of our strategy. With our fourth consecutive quarter of maintenance portfolio growth above 4% and backlog growth in both new equipment and modernization, we have set ourselves up nicely for the future.

這標誌著我們的服務有機銷售連續第 11 個季度成長，也是我們的服務營業利潤率連續第 15 個季度擴大，證明了我們執行的一致性和策略的實力。隨著我們的維護組合成長連續第四個季度超過 4%，以及新設備和現代化設備的積壓成長，我們已經為未來做好了準備。

Last quarter, we announced the launch of our Gen3 core elevator in North America. And in the third quarter, we sold our first units. This new product addresses the needs of our customers in the 2- to 6-story building segment, the largest by volume in North America. We also continued to drive progress toward our ESG commitments. For the second year in a row, we achieved a gold rating from EcoVadis, ranking us within the top 5% of all assessed companies.

上季度，我們宣佈在北美推出 Gen3 核心電梯。在第三季度，我們售出了第一批單位。這款新產品滿足了 2 至 6 層建築領域客戶的需求，該領域是北美體積最大的建築領域。我們也繼續推動我們的 ESG 承諾取得進展。我們連續第二年獲得 EcoVadis 的黃金評級，在所有評估公司中排名前 5%。

We're also proud to have been named by Newsweek as one of the world's most trustworthy companies and one of America's greenest companies. Let me share a few customer highlights from the third quarter. In British Columbia, Otis is providing 7 SkyRise and 8 Gen3 Edge elevators for South Yards, a mixed-use development by Anthem properties. South Yards will include more than 2,500 residential units and over 60,000 square feet of retail and office space, surrounding a 1-acre community park.

我們也很自豪被《新聞週刊》評為全球最值得信賴的公司之一和美國最環保的公司之一。讓我分享第三季的一些客戶亮點。在不列顛哥倫比亞省，奧的斯為 Anthem 地產的綜合用途開發項目 South Yards 提供 7 部 SkyRise 和 8 部 Gen3 Edge 電梯。 South Yards 將包括 2,500 多個住宅單元以及超過 60,000 平方英尺的零售和辦公空間，周圍環繞著一個佔地 1 英畝的社區公園。

In Hong Kong SAR, were supplied 47 Gen3 units to enhance access to more than 30 elevated walkways. These elevators will provide improved accessibility for the aging population and people with disabilities, a key part of Hong Kong's universal accessibilities initiative. Construction is expected to be complete in July of 2026.

在香港特別行政區，我們獲得了 47 個 Gen3 單元，以加強通往 30 多條高架人行道的通道。這些電梯將為老齡化人口和殘疾人士提供更好的無障礙環境，這是香港全民無障礙倡議的重要組成部分。施工預計將於 2026 年 7 月完成。

In Saudi Arabia, we secured a contract to modernize 18 elevators at the Saudi National Bank headquarters in Riyadh. As part of the modernization, we'll upgrade the controllers in the high-rise units, while adding our Otis ONE IoT solution. This new project builds on our existing relationship with the Saudi National Bank headquarters, which has 47 Otis units in total.

在沙烏地阿拉伯，我們獲得了一份合同，對位於利雅德的沙烏地阿拉伯國家銀行總部的 18 部電梯進行現代化改造。作為現代化改造的一部分，我們將升級高層單元中的控制器，同時添加我們的奧的斯 ONE 物聯網解決方案。這個新計畫建立在我們與沙烏地阿拉伯國家銀行總部現有關係的基礎上，該總部共有 47 台奧的斯設備。

And in China, we received a contract to maintain 351 units at Shanghai's Pudong Airport, with 271 of these returning to the Otis portfolio as a recapture. Pudong Airport is a critical cargo access point in East Asia, while also serving roughly 80 million passengers each year. We're proud to say we now maintain all Otis units at the airport.

在中國，我們收到了一份在上海浦東機場維護 351 架飛機的合同，其中 271 架作為重新奪回的方式返回到奧的斯產品組合中。浦東機場是東亞地區重要的貨運通道，每年為約 8,000 萬名旅客提供服務。我們很自豪地說，我們現在在機場維護所有奧的斯設備。

We announced our Uplift program last quarter, and in Q3 we began executing initiatives focused on 3 essential areas: gaining scale across our global organization to unlock synergies, standardizing our processes to generate efficiencies and driving supplier and indirect spend optimization. We are on track to meet our stated expected run rate savings of $150 million by midyear 2025. Taken together, these initiatives drive further value for our customers, organizational effectiveness and sustainable profitable growth.

我們上季度宣布了Uplift 計劃，在第三季度，我們開始執行專注於3 個基本領域的舉措：在我們的全球組織中擴大規模以釋放協同效應，標準化我們的流程以提高效率並推動供應商和間接支出優化。我們預計在 2025 年年中實現預期運行率節省 1.5 億美元。總而言之，這些舉措將為我們的客戶、組織效率和可持續盈利增長帶來更多價值。

Moving to Slide 4, Q3 results and 2023 outlook. Organic sales in the quarter grew 5.2%. Service was up $0.84, with all lines of business contributing. And New Equipment up 1%, with growth in the Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific. Although New Equipment orders declined 10% versus the prior year, backlog was up at 2% at constant currency. Our share in the quarter remained relatively flat, leaving us at approximately 50 basis points of share gain year-to-date.

轉到投影片 4，第三季業績和 2023 年展望。本季有機銷售額成長 5.2%。服務增長了 0.84 美元，所有業務部門都做出了貢獻。新設備成長 1%，美洲、歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區都有成長。儘管新設備訂單較前一年下降 10%，但以固定匯率計算，積壓訂單增加了 2%。本季我們的份額保持相對平穩，年初至今份額增長約 50 個基點。

Order growth in EMEA and Asia Pacific was more than offset by declines in the Americas and China. In Service, modernization orders remained strong, up 13% in Q3, the fifth consecutive quarter of mod orders growth above 10% drove strong performance in EMEA, China and Asia Pacific. Mod backlog was up 15% and giving us line of sight to sales over the next several quarters.

歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區的訂單成長被美洲和中國的訂單下降所抵消。在服務領域，現代化訂單依然強勁，第三季成長 13%，連續第五個季度現代化訂單成長超過 10%，推動了歐洲、中東和非洲、中國和亞太地區的強勁表現。 Mod 積壓量增加了 15%，讓我們能夠了解未來幾季的銷售情況。

With adjusted operating profit growth of $47 million in the quarter, we expanded margins by 60 basis points, driven by 90 basis points of service adjusted operating profit margin expansion. We generated $272 million of free cash flow, driven by higher net income.

本季調整後營業利潤成長 4,700 萬美元，在服務調整後營業利潤率擴張 90 個基點的推動下，我們的利潤率擴大了 60 個基點。在淨利潤增加的推動下，我們產生了 2.72 億美元的自由現金流。

To summarize, we executed our strategy, growing the portfolio above 4%, increasing our New Equipment and mod backlogs, giving us a strong base to execute on for the next several quarters, while expanding operating profit margins as we drive a consistent operating cadence in the business, ultimately leading to just under 20% EPS growth. Ultimately, we believe we're set up well despite the relatively weaker macro picture we're facing, which I'll discuss next.

總而言之，我們執行了我們的策略，將產品組合成長了4% 以上，增加了新設備和改裝積壓訂單，為我們在未來幾季的執行奠定了堅實的基礎，同時隨著我們推動一致的運營節奏，擴大了營運利潤率該業務最終帶來略低於 20% 的每股收益成長。最終，我們相信，儘管我們面臨著相對較弱的宏觀形勢，但我們已經做好了準備，我將在接下來討論這一點。

For global New Equipment unit bookings, Asia Pacific continues to grow, although we now expect it to be up low to mid-single digits, a step down from our prior expectations. We anticipate that EMEA will decline high single digits, in line with our expectations for last quarter. While Americas, we now expect to decline mid-teens, and China to decline north of 10%, both worse than we were anticipating just a few months ago as the macro environment remains challenging. In total, this would leave global New Equipment bookings somewhere around 850,000 units, down approximately 10% versus 2022.

對於全球新設備單位預訂量而言，亞太地區持續成長，儘管我們現在預計該數字將成長到低至中個位數，比我們先前的預期有所下降。我們預計歐洲、中東和非洲地區將出現高個位數下降，這與我們對上季度的預期一致。我們現在預計美洲將下降 10% 以上，中國將下降 10% 以上，這兩個地區的情況都比我們幾個月前的預期更糟糕，因為宏觀環境仍然充滿挑戰。總的來說，這將使全球新設備預訂量約為 85 萬台，比 2022 年下降約 10%。

In Service, although global New Equipment unit bookings are smaller than we anticipated, we still expect the Service installed base to grow nearly 5% this year, as units that were booked 2 to 3 years ago,and installed 1 to 2 years ago roll off their warranty periods. This will put the global Service installed base somewhere between 21 million to 22 million units by year-end, of which we currently maintain approximately 2.2 million and expect to end the year around 2.3 million units in our maintenance portfolio.

在服務方面，儘管全球新設備預訂量低於我們的預期，但我們仍然預計今年服務裝機量將增長近 5%，因為 2 至 3 年前預訂並 1 至 2 年前安裝的設備數量逐漸減少他們的保固期。這將使全球服務安裝基數在年底前達到 2,100 萬至 2,200 萬台，其中我們目前維護的設備數量約為 220 萬台，預計到年底我們的維護產品組合中的維護數量約為 230 萬台。

With that as the global backdrop, let me now update you on Otis' financial outlook. We expect organic sales growth of approximately 5.5%, with net sales of about $14.1 billion. Adjusted operating profit is expected to be approximately $2.265 billion, up $170 million at constant currency. At actual currency, adjusted operating profit is expected to be up $140 million, including a foreign exchange headwind of $30 million.

以此為全球背景，現在讓我向您介紹奧的斯的最新財務前景。我們預計有機銷售額將成長約 5.5%，淨銷售額約 141 億美元。調整後營業利潤預計約 22.65 億美元，以固定匯率計算增加 1.7 億美元。以實際貨幣計算，調整後營業利潤預計將增加 1.4 億美元，其中包括 3,000 萬美元的外匯不利因素。

We're raising our outlook for adjusted EPS, now expected to be $3.52, up 11% versus the prior year. We now expect free cash flow of about $1.5 billion or approximately 105% conversion of GAAP net income. We still expect share repurchases of $800 million.

我們上調了調整後每股收益的預期，目前預計為 3.52 美元，比上年增長 11%。我們現在預計自由現金流約為 15 億美元，即 GAAP 淨利潤的約 105%。我們仍預期股票回購金額為 8 億美元。

With that, I'll turn it over to Anurag to walk through our Q3 results in more detail.

接下來，我會將其交給 Anurag，以更詳細地介紹我們的第三季結果。

Thank you, Judy, and good morning, everyone. Starting with third quarter results on Slide 5. Net sales of $3.5 billion grew 5.4% and organic sales were up 5.2%, with growth in both segments. Adjusted operating profit of $52 million at actual FX and $47 million at constant currency, with margins expanding 60 basis points to 16.9%. Drop-through on service volume, productivity and pricing segments and commodity tailwinds were partially offset by inflationary pressures, including annual wage increases and higher corporate costs.

謝謝朱迪，大家早安。從幻燈片 5 的第三季業績開始。淨銷售額為 35 億美元，成長 5.4%，有機銷售額成長 5.2%，這兩個領域都有成長。調整後的營業利潤（以實際匯率計算）為 5,200 萬美元，以固定匯率計算為 4,700 萬美元，利潤率擴大 60 個基點，達到 16.9%。服務量、生產力和定價領域的下降以及大宗商品的順風被通膨壓力（包括年度薪資上漲和企業成本上升）部分抵銷。

Adjusted EPS increased 19% or $0.15, with over half of this improvement coming from strong operational performance and the rest from a combination of our capital allocation initiatives an ongoing effort to reduce the tax rate, which came in at 25.5% in the quarter. Free cash flow came in at $272 million, up $57 million versus prior year, largely driven by higher net income. Year-to-date, we generated $934 million of free cash flow lower versus the prior year, driven by lower down payments on fewer New Equipment orders and the continued outperformance of our repair business as this work tends to be paid in areas.

調整後每股盈餘成長 19%，即 0.15 美元，其中一半以上的成長來自強勁的營運業績，其餘則來自我們的資本配置計畫以及持續努力降低稅率（本季稅率為 25.5%）。自由現金流為 2.72 億美元，比上年增加 5,700 萬美元，主要是由於淨利潤增加所致。今年迄今為止，我們產生的自由現金流比去年減少了 9.34 億美元，因為新設備訂單減少，首付款減少，而且我們的維修業務持續表現出色，因為這項工作往往是在地區支付的。

Moving to Slide 6. Let me start by giving some color on Q3 New Equipment orders and backlog. In the third quarter at constant currency, New Equipment orders declined 10% versus prior year. Despite this, our New Equipment backlog increased 2%, with mid-teens growth in Asia Pacific, single-digit growth in the Americas and EMEA roughly flat. China backlog is down low single digits. Sequentially outside of China, our New Equipment backlog was relatively stable in all regions.

前往投影片 6。首先讓我介紹一下第三季新設備訂單和積壓訂單。以固定匯率計算，第三季新設備訂單較去年同期下降 10%。儘管如此，我們的新設備訂單仍增加了 2%，其中亞太地區的成長率為 10%左右，美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的成長率為個位數，基本持平。中國的訂單積壓量下降至低個位數。在中國以外的地區，我們的新設備儲備在所有地區都相對穩定。

Globally, pricing on New Equipment orders was up low single digits, building on a similar increase in the third quarter of the prior year. Excluding China, pricing improved by mid-single digits or better in all regions. Although pricing was down mid-single digits in China due to macro challenges, we remain price cost neutral in the region from our continued focus on driving material productivity.

在全球範圍內，新設備訂單的定價在去年第三季度出現類似增長的基礎上出現了較低的個位數增長。除中國外，所有地區的定價均實現中個位數或更高的成長。儘管由於宏觀挑戰，中國的定價下降了中個位數，但由於我們繼續專注於提高材料生產率，我們在該地區保持價格成本中立。

New Equipment organic sales were up 1% in the quarter, with strong growth in all regions outside of China. Asia Pacific grew low teens driven by continued performance in India as well as tracking with major projects. In EMEA, New Equipment sales grew high single digits, underpinned by the significant orders over the past several quarters in Southern Europe and the Middle East, while the Americas region grew high single digits for the second consecutive quarter executing on its multibillion-dollar backlog.

本季新設備有機銷售額成長 1%，中國以外的所有地區均出現強勁成長。受印度持續表現以及大型專案追蹤的推動，亞太地區的銷售額成長了兩位數。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，受過去幾季南歐和中東大量訂單的支撐，新設備銷售額實現高個位數增長，而美洲地區則連續第二個季度實現高個位數增長，執行數十億美元的積壓訂單。

We grew New Equipment operating profit by $10 million at constant currency despite China sales coming in weaker than expected. Driving productivity, pricing flow through from the backlog and tailwinds from commodities more than offset the project in regional mix headwinds, leading to a 7.2% margin in the quarter.

儘管中國銷售額弱於預期，但以固定匯率計算，我們的新設備營業利潤成長了 1,000 萬美元。積壓訂單帶來的定價流和大宗商品的順風推動了生產力的提高，抵消了該項目在區域組合方面的不利因素，導致本季利潤率達到 7.2%。

Turning to Service segment results on Slide 7. Maintenance units were up 4.2% with growth in all regions, led by high growth in China for the fourth quarter in a row. We delivered another strong quarter of modernization orders, up 13%, including China mod orders growing double digits from continued success of new product offerings. Asia Pacific also grew double digits due to a number of volume and major project wins, with standout performance coming from North Asia.

轉向投影片 7 上的服務部門業績。維修單位成長 4.2%，所有地區均出現成長，其中中國連續第四季實現高成長。我們的現代化訂單又一個強勁的季度增長了 13%，其中中國的現代化訂單由於新產品的持續成功而增長了兩位數。由於大量的數量和重大項目的勝利，亞太地區也實現了兩位數的增長，其中北亞的表現最為突出。

EMEA mod orders grew 10% driven by major project wins. At quarter end, our mod backlog was up 15%, with growth in all regions. Service revenue came in better than expected with all lines of business contributing to organic sales growth of 8.4%. Maintenance and repair was up 8.6% from higher-than-anticipated repair volumes, and mod was up 7.6% with growth across all regions, highlighted by double-digit increase in Asia.

在重大項目贏得的推動下，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的模組訂單增加了 10%。截至季末，我們的模組積壓量增加了 15%，所有地區都有成長。服務收入好於預期，所有業務線的有機銷售額成長了 8.4%。維修和維修業務成長 8.6%，維修量高於預期，改裝業務成長 7.6%，所有地區均成長，其中亞洲達到兩位數成長。

Service pricing, excluding mix and churn, came in around 4 points, similar to last quarter's performance, and adjusted for mix and churn, was a net 2 points. Higher volume, favorable pricing and productivity were partially offset by annual wage increases and higher material costs leading to $53 million of service profit growth at constant currency. Service adjusted operating profit margin expanded 90 basis points in the quarter to 24.8%.

服務定價（不包括混合和流失）約為 4 個百分點，與上一季的表現類似，並且針對混合和流失進行調整後，淨值為 2 個百分點。較高的產量、有利的定價和生產力被年度薪資上漲和材料成本上漲部分抵消，導致以固定匯率計算的服務利潤增加 5,300 萬美元。本季服務調整後營業利益率擴大 90 個基點，達到 24.8%。

Overall, we are pleased with our results in the quarter as well as year-to-date. We've grown our New Equipment and more backlogs, expanded the portfolio at 4% and delivered over 10% EPS growth.

總體而言，我們對本季以及年初至今的業績感到滿意。我們增加了新設備和更多積壓訂單，產品組合擴大了 4%，每股收益成長超過 10%。

Moving to Slide 8 and the revised outlook. Starting with sales. Total Otis organic sales are expected to be up approximately 5.5%, consistent with the midpoint of our prior guide, including slight adjustments by segment. Adjusted operating profit growth at constant currency is expected to be $170 million, a $5 million increase versus the prior guide's midpoint and the result of strong performance in the Service segment.

轉到投影片 8 和修訂後的前景。從銷售開始。奧的斯有機銷售額預計將成長約 5.5%，與我們先前指南的中位數一致，包括按細分市場進行的小幅調整。以固定匯率計算，調整後營業利潤預計將達到 1.7 億美元，比先前指南的中點成長 500 萬美元，這也是服務部門強勁業績的結果。

At actual currency, we expect adjusted operating profit of $2.265 billion as the better operating performance is offset by a slightly higher foreign exchange headwind and driven by a change in the euro and the weakening of various Asian currencies, such as the CNY. Our margin expectations remain unchanged, with Service margins expected to expand 50 basis points to 24%, New Equipment margins expected to expand 20 basis points to just under 7%. This puts overall operating margins at approximately 16%, up 30 basis points.

以實際貨幣計算，我們預計調整後營業利潤為 22.65 億美元，因為較好的經營業績被外匯逆風略有上升以及歐元變化和人民幣等各種亞洲貨幣走弱所抵消。我們的利潤率預期保持不變，服務利潤率預計將擴大 50 個基點至 24%，新設備利潤率預計將擴大 20 個基點至略低於 7%。這使得整體營業利潤率上升了 30 個基點，約 16%。

We have upgraded our adjusted EPS, expected to be up 11% to the prior guide, to $3.52. This represents a force increase versus the prior guide's midpoint, largely driven by strong operational performance and improvements in below-the-line items, including tax, now expected to end the year at 26%. We have to generate approximately $1.5 billion in free cash flow, a roughly 105% conversion rate and return substantially all of it to shareholders through $1.35 billion of dividends and share repurchases.

我們將調整後每股收益上調至 3.52 美元，預計將比先前的指導值成長 11%。與先前指南的中點相比，這意味著力量有所增加，這主要是由於強勁的營運績效和包括稅收在內的線下項目的改善所推動的，目前預計今年年底稅率將達到 26%。我們必須產生約 15 億美元的自由現金流，大約 105% 的轉換率，並透過 13.5 億美元的股息和股票回購將幾乎所有現金流返還給股東。

Taking a further look at the organic sales outlook on Slide 9. We now expect new equipment organic sales growth of approximately 3% at the low end of the prior range, driven by larger-than-expected headwinds in China, which we expect to be down mid-single digits. The Americas and EMEA are still expected to grow mid-single digits organically.

進一步審視幻燈片 9 中的有機銷售前景。我們現在預計新設備有機銷售將增長約 3%，處於先前範圍的低端，這是由中國大於預期的逆風推動的，我們預計中國的逆風將在下降到中個位數。美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區預計仍將實現中個位數有機成長。

In Service, organic sales are expected to be up approximately 7.5%, a 1 point increase versus the midpoint of the prior guide driven by maintenance and repair. Consistent maintenance portfolio growth and pricing, together with another quarter of strong repair volume enabled us to raise the outlook by 130 basis points to up 7.3% versus the prior guide. Modernization organic sales expectations remain unchanged, up 8% as we execute on our backlog, which was up 15% at quarter end.

在服務方面，有機銷售額預計將成長約 7.5%，較先前由維護和維修推動的指南中位數成長 1 個百分點。持續的維修產品組合成長和定價，加上另一個季度強勁的維修量，使我們能夠將前景預測比之前的指導值提高 130 個基點，達到 7.3%。現代化有機銷售預期保持不變，隨著我們執行積壓訂單（季度末增長了 15%），增長了 8%。

Moving to Slide 10. We have raised our expectations for adjusted EPS, and now expect growth of approximately 11% or $3.52, a $0.35 increase versus the prior year, driven by $0.30 of operational improvement.

轉向幻燈片 10。我們提高了對調整後每股收益的預期，現在預計增長約 11% 或 3.52 美元，比上年增加 0.35 美元，這得益於 0.30 美元的營運改善。

In closing, we continue to execute well on the things we can control, and our resilient Service business is driving profitable growth in an uncertain macro environment. Our strong year-to-date performance gives us confidence to again raise our EPS outlook and deliver a solid fourth quarter, while positioning us well to perform in '24 and beyond.

最後，我們繼續在我們可以控制的事情上表現出色，我們富有彈性的服務業務正在不確定的宏觀環境中推動獲利成長。我們今年迄今為止的強勁表現使我們有信心再次提高每股收益預期並實現第四季度的穩健業績，同時使我們能夠在 24 年及以後的表現中保持良好的表現。

With that, Michelle, please open the line for questions.

那麼，米歇爾，請打開提問線。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自垂直研究合作夥伴的 Jeffrey Sprague。

Judy and Anurag, could you just elaborate a little bit more on your view on both Americas and China New Equipment, kind of the downward tick in the outlook, and maybe just thoughts on kind of even the trajectory as we exit 2023 into 2024 in those particular regions.

Judy 和 Anurag，您能詳細闡述您對美國和中國新設備的看法嗎？展望中的下行趨勢，也許只是對我們從 2023 年退出到 2024 年的軌跡進行一些思考。特定地區。

Yes. Happy to, Jeff. Let me start with the Americas. So we're now -- we now believe the New Equipment market in the Americas is going to be down mid-teens, and we're really seeing that with the highest impact being the interest rates remaining high. It really is impacting new project starts. We've seen that in the most recent ABI and Dodge data. So we're watching that closely. I would tell you the residential performed the worst in the third quarter, followed by commercial not being great, and infrastructure for the quarter relatively flat. We expect infrastructure to pick up as we go into '24.

是的。很高興，傑夫。讓我從美洲開始。所以我們現在 - 我們現在相信美洲的新設備市場將下降百分之十幾，我們確實看到影響最大的是利率仍然很高。這確實影響了新項目的啟動。我們在最新的 ABI 和道奇數據中看到了這一點。所以我們正在密切關注這一點。我想告訴你，第三季住宅表現最差，其次是商業表現不佳，第三季基礎建設表現相對平淡。我們預計基礎設施將在進入 24 年後有所改善。

We tend to see that a little later in the cycle versus the early construction companies, with all the infrastructure activity that's starting. What I do like about the Americas beyond their performance, and they really had a strong performance in terms of backlog conversion, is we still have strong mid-single-digit backlog on new equipment. That puts us in a really good position, not just for the fourth quarter, but I would tell you with our site in the Americas, it gives us really the sight for the next 12 to 18 months in -- especially in North America, which is the majority of our Americas business.

與早期的建築公司相比，我們傾向於看到週期稍晚一些，所有基礎設施活動都剛開始。除了他們的表現之外，我對美洲的喜歡之處在於他們在積壓訂單轉換方面確實表現強勁，因為我們在新設備上仍然有強勁的中個位數積壓訂單。這讓我們處於一個非常有利的位置，不僅僅是在第四季度，但我想透過我們在美洲的網站告訴您，它讓我們真正看到了未來12 到18 個月的情況——尤其是在北美，是我們美洲業務的主要部分。

So we'll wait and see what happens with interest rates. If this does become the new normal, we think people will adjust. Because housing demand is real. It's still there, so we have to wait and see where this equilibrium is going to come out with the developers and when they go ahead with projects. We're not seeing a decline in terms of interest or proposals. So we really -- at this point, it's about people having conviction to start the projects from a development perspective.

因此，我們將拭​​目以待，看看利率會發生什麼。如果這確實成為新常態，我們認為人們會做出調整。因為住房需求是真的。它仍然存在，所以我們必須等待，看看開發商會在哪裡實現這種平衡，以及何時繼續進行專案。我們沒有看到興趣或提案的減少。所以我們真的——在這一點上，人們有信心從發展的角度啟動專案。

In China, the New Equipment market does remain somewhat weak, and it's worse than we saw it a quarter ago, when we told you we didn't see that inflection point for book and ship. We're now saying it's really down. The China market itself is really down north of 10%. So we are continuing to focus on our pivot in China. And I couldn't be more proud of our team in China in terms of what we've done on the maintenance side to offset this, as well as really how we've managed material productivity to be able to drive that cost price neutral scenario in China.

在中國，新設備市場確實仍然有些疲軟，而且比我們一個季度前看到的情況還要糟糕，當時我們告訴過您，我們沒有看到預訂和發貨的拐點。我們現在說它確實下降了。中國市場本身確實下降了 10% 以上。因此，我們將繼續專注於中國的業務重點。我為我們在中國的團隊感到非常自豪，因為我們在維護方面所做的工作來抵消這一點，以及我們如何管理材料生產力以推動成本價格中性的情況在中國。

We have picked up share in China for the year. And so we will continue, even though the backlog is down, our team is continuing to fight for all units and execute our strategy, which has been in play, which is focusing on key accounts mainly state-owned enterprises, and continuing new product introduction and expansion on Otis ONE. So our mod is up in China for the fifth straight quarter -- or sorry, for this year, it's up double digits. So far all year. We've had the ninth straight quarter in China on the Service side of mid- to high single -- high teens service growth. So we're finding a nice place there in terms of this pivot to becoming more of a service provider.

今年我們在中國的份額上升。因此，我們將繼續，即使積壓有所下降，我們的團隊仍將繼續為所有單位而奮鬥並執行我們一直在發揮作用的策略，即專注於主要客戶（主要是國有企業），並繼續推出新產品以及Otis ONE 的擴展。因此，我們的模組在中國的銷量連續第五個季度上漲——或者抱歉，今年的銷量增長了兩位數。全年至今。我們在中國的服務方面已連續第九個季度實現中高單青少年服務成長。因此，我們正在尋找一個很好的位置，以成為更多的服務提供者。

But New Equipment is our highest margin in China. And I think what you see with the results is despite China being down, our other 3 regions really picked it up nicely for us to be able to hold margins at 7% on New Equipment for the quarter and grow organically 1%, even with China down fairly significantly. So we'll wait and see what happens in terms of stimulus. Obviously, we've seen certain actions already in China in terms of easing monetary support, postponing property taxes, loosening credit policy for mortgages, but we really do are watching sentiment and liquidity. Those are the 2 items that we're watching.

但新設備是我們在中國利潤率最高的。我認為你從結果中看到的是，儘管中國經濟下滑，但我們的其他3 個地區確實取得了不錯的成績，我們能夠將本季度新設備的利潤率保持在7%，有機增長1%，即使在中國市場的影響下下降相當顯著。因此，我們將拭​​目以待，看看刺激措施會發生什麼。顯然，我們已經看到中國在放鬆貨幣支持、推遲徵收房產稅、放鬆抵押貸款信貸政策等方面採取了某些行動，但我們確實在關注情緒和流動性。這些是我們正在關注的兩個項目。

Great. And just to shift completely in a different direction. You started the conversation, Judy, with Uplift kind of getting off the ground, I guess, pun intended. But maybe just a little bit of color. Is it impacting results in Q3? How do you see kind of the staging of that $150 million that you're talking about?

偉大的。只是為了完全轉向不同的方向。朱迪，你開始了談話，我猜，Uplift 有點開始了，雙關語的意思。但也許只是一點點顏色。這對第三季的結果有影響嗎？您如何看待您所說的 1.5 億美元的規劃？

Yes, there is no impact in Q3. We just -- early days for us. We've kicked off the key activities, including the operating model. A lot of education inside the company and a lot of focus now on process redesign and indirect spend. You'll see that start coming through slightly in Q4, but 2024 is when you'll really start seeing that impact, and then we'll achieve the run rate. We're very comfortable with all the analysis we've done, as well as some of the decisions we've taken already that the $150 million is absolutely achievable.

是的，第三季沒有影響。我們只是──對我們來說還處於早期階段。我們已經啟動了關鍵活動，包括營運模式。公司內部進行了大量教育，現在專注於流程重新設計和間接支出。您會看到這種影響在第四季度開始略有改善，但到 2024 年您將真正開始看到這種影響，然後我們將達到運行率。我們對我們所做的所有分析以及我們已經做出的一些決定感到非常滿意，即 1.5 億美元是絕對可以實現的。

The next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

So understand the kind of like the weakness you'd update across the globe. I mean are we seeing any product cancellations with the rising rates, some projects now canceled out? Just wondering on that. And then -- but maybe, I just want to dig it a bit more into China with the pricing down mid-single digits. I think that the view was that China would not kind of be as bad as perhaps prior down-cycles because margins there are much lower. So just curious how you see the risk of further deterioration in China. And you mentioned price cost remaining positive or rather neutral in China, are China margins hold in there? Or are we seeing some deterioration in margins?

因此，請了解您要在全球範圍內更新的弱點。我的意思是，隨著價格上漲，我們是否看到任何產品被取消，現在一些項目被取消了？只是想知道這一點。然後——但也許，我只是想更多地深入中國，將定價降至中個位數。我認為，人們的觀點是，中國的情況可能不會像之前的下行週期那麼糟糕，因為那裡的利潤率要低得多。所以只是好奇你如何看待中國進一步惡化的風險。您提到中國的價格成本保持正值或相當中性，中國的利潤率是否保持不變？或者我們看到利潤率下降？

Yes. Let me start, and then I'll have Anurag. Nigel, we're not seeing project cancellations at any level different than we have in the past. And we can say that everywhere in the globe. There are always a small amount of project cancellations that occur, in which we retain the deposit, the advanced deposit, but nothing unusual there. In terms of China, let me just make sure everyone understands that China now represents about 17% of our global revenue. Now there are several reasons for that.

是的。讓我開始吧，然後我會請阿努拉格。奈傑爾，我們沒有看到與過去有任何不同程度的項目取消。我們可以在全球各地這樣說。總是會有少量項目取消的情況發生，其中我們保留了押金，預付押金，但沒有什麼不尋常的。就中國而言，我想確保大家都明白，中國目前約占我們全球收入的 17%。現在有幾個原因。

One is a down China market, but second is with us now outlooking $14.1 billion in revenue and organic growth of 5.5%, you can see the impact and the pickup of the other 3 regions in terms of their growth. So nice call out, Americas, EMEA, Asia Pacific, really good revenue growth, as you saw in Anurag's presentation. But China is now about 17% of our total revenue, down from that traditionally. So that's just the reality of where the numbers are right now. On price cost, Anurag, why don't you comment?

一是中國市場低迷，二是我們現在預計收入為 141 億美元，有機成長 5.5%，您可以看到其他 3 個地區成長的影響和回升。美洲、歐洲、中東和非洲、亞太地區的收入成長非常好，正如您在 Anurag 的演示中看到的那樣。但目前中國市場約占我們總收入的 17%，低於傳統水準。這就是目前數字的現實情況。關於價格成本，Anurag，為什麼不發表評論？

Yes. So on price cost, as you mentioned, Nigel, we are either neutral or positive, right? In China, definitely pricing in the New Equipment side is coming down, but we are driving hard on material productivity. And it's a deflationary economy over there as well. So a combination of that and there's pricing discipline in the market, you put all of that together, right now cost is favorable. And we are able to offset the China mix as you saw in third quarter, with the New Equipment margin being at 7.2%. And even if you look at the fourth quarter implied outlook, New Equipment margin is going to be about 7% even though China is going to be down.

是的。因此，關於價格成本，正如您所提到的，奈傑爾，我們要么是中性的，要么是積極的，對吧？在中國，新設備的定價肯定會下降，但我們正在努力提高材料生產率。那裡的經濟也是通貨緊縮的。因此，結合市場上的定價規則，將所有這些放在一起，現在成本是有利的。正如您在第三季看到的那樣，我們能夠抵消中國的影響，新設備利潤率為 7.2%。即使你看看第四季的隱含前景，新設備利潤率將約為 7%，儘管中國將下降。

So a couple of reasons. One is obviously the price cost. And second, pricing in all the other markets that has gone up over the past 12, 15 months, which is in our backlog, it started flushing through to the P&L. We again saw this quarter another $10 million pickup of pricing. We're going to see that similar in the next, and commodity is a tailwind. So if I look at pricing in the backlog overall, which is probably up 50 to 70 basis points. And if we snap the line on commodity today, right, we should still see another $40 million or so tailwind next year. You add these 2 things together, I think it more than kind of makes up for the China mix for us to believe that our New Equipment is at a sustainable margin rate.

有幾個原因。一是明顯的價格成本。其次，過去 12、15 個月內所有其他市場的定價都在上漲，這是我們積壓的，它開始衝入損益表。本季我們再次看到定價再次上漲 1000 萬美元。接下來我們將看到類似的情況，而大宗商品是一個順風車。因此，如果我看看總體積壓訂單的定價，可能會上漲 50 到 70 個基點。如果我們今天打破大宗商品的界限，對吧，明年我們應該還會看到另外 4000 萬美元左右的順風車。將這兩件事加在一起，我認為這足以彌補中國的組合，讓我們相信我們的新設備具有可持續的利潤率。

Okay. Great. And I know there's about 3 questions there. If I can get one more as a follow-on. Just a follow on to Jeff's question on the Uplift program (inaudible) by this time. So obviously, the $150 million run rate, I'm assuming that exit '25 run rate. What would you feel comfortable in a down FY '24 in terms of cost savings? And what sort of restructuring would be associated with that saving?

好的。偉大的。我知道大約有 3 個問題。如果我能再得到一個作為後續。這次只是傑夫關於提升計畫的問題的後續（聽不清楚）。顯然，1.5 億美元的運行率，我假設退出 '25 的運行率。在 24 財年經濟下滑的情況下，您對節省成本有何看法？什麼樣的重組會與節省資金有關？

Well, we're not going to guide yet for '24 Uplift savings, so we just need to be -- yes, we're not prepared to do that. We'll get back to you, obviously, when we do our '24 guide to let you know what's going to be in that late January. In terms of restructuring, I think we've been...

好吧，我們還不打算為 '24 Uplift 節省提供指導，所以我們只需要 - 是的，我們不准備這樣做。顯然，當我們製作 '24 指南時，我們會回覆您，讓您知道 1 月底會發生什麼。在重組方面，我認為我們......

Exactly. So for us, program is off to a great start, as Judy mentioned, we'll give an update next year. In terms of -- to achieve the $150 million of savings, the restructuring cost is about $150 million. And so one on one, right? It's going to start this quarter. But obviously, we're going to start seeing the savings coming in next year.

確切地。因此，對我們來說，計劃有了一個良好的開端，正如朱迪所提到的，我們將在明年提供更新。為了實現 1.5 億美元的節省，重組成本約為 1.5 億美元。一對一的，對吧？將從本季開始。但顯然，我們將在明年開始看到節省的費用。

The next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Just wanted to start off with the global New Equipment revenue outlook. So you've been feeding off a good backlog there and the organic sales maybe flat to up 1% year-on-year in New Equipment in the back half of the current year. I just wondered though, when you look at the sort of 12 months rolling on New Equipment orders down 4%, year-to-date, down 6%, water down 10%, and then we think about sort of the nature of how quickly the backlog wears off. It's very fast in China, slower the rest of the world. Is it sort of base assumption as we start out next year that New Equipment sales are down then as those weaker orders feed through?

只是想從全球新設備收入前景開始。因此，您在那裡積壓了大量訂單，今年下半年新設備的有機銷售額可能持平，年增 1%。不過，我只是想知道，當你看看新設備訂單連續 12 個月下降 4%、年初至今下降 6%、水下降 10% 時，我們會思考下降速度有多快的本質積壓的訂單逐漸消失。中國的速度非常快，而世界其他地方則較慢。當我們明年開始時，隨著訂單疲軟的影響，新設備銷售量會下降，這是基本假設嗎？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Julian. Yes, so firstly, our backlog is up 2% on the New Equipment side. We do think that even if orders are down low to mid-single digit the fourth quarter, our backlog is going to be flattish to slightly up. And the reason is because we tend to book more orders than revenue over the past couple of years, some of them in major projects. So our assumption is that backlog should be flattish to up by end of the year.

是的。謝謝你的提問，朱利安。是的，首先，我們的新設備方面的積壓訂單增加了 2%。我們確實認為，即使第四季訂單下降至中個位數，我們的積壓訂單也將持平或略有上升。原因是過去幾年我們的訂單量往往多於收入，其中一些是重大項目。因此，我們的假設是，到今年年底，積壓量應該會持平。

Now within that, Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific, if we put that together, that backlog is up low to mid-single digit, and that represents roughly about 2/3 of our New Equipment revenue. So that should be kind of up low to mid-single digit next year. Let's say, low single digit. The big variable, of course, is 1/3 of the revenue, which is China. Right now, China backlog is down low single digit. It could be down mid-single digit by end of the year. And what happens to the market over there, it could be flattish, it could be down 10%, it could be up, right? So with that, we do not know as to where that's going to happen.

現在，在美洲、歐洲和亞太地區，如果我們把它們加在一起，積壓訂單將上升至中個位數，大約占我們新設備收入的 2/3 左右。因此，明年這一數字應該會上升到中個位數。比方說，低個位數。當然，最大的變數是收入的1/3，即中國。目前，中國的訂單積壓量已降至低個位數。到今年年底，這一數字可能會下降到個位數左右。那邊的市場會發生什麼，可能持平，可能下跌 10%，也可能上漲，對嗎？因此，我們不知道這會發生在哪裡。

But let's assume that the market goes down next year and then China is probably down 5%, so that would mean that our new equipment revenue could be flattish. So -- but if I put things in all perspective, it could be flattish, it could be up 2%, it could be down 2%. But 2% or 3% New Equipment revenue is about a couple of hundred million dollar revenue. And if we look at our margin, it's about $14 million, $15 million, $18 million of profit, which is $0.02 or $0.03 of EPS. If you look at what we did this year, we more than overcame back to the Service business, which is why we -- and our guide went up every because of the back of Service. So we think we should be able to make that up next year through our service business.

但我們假設明年市場下降，然後中國可能下降 5%，那麼這意味著我們的新設備收入可能持平。所以，但如果我從各個角度來看，它可能會持平，可能會上漲 2%，也可能會下跌 2%。但 2% 或 3% 的新設備收入大約是幾億美元的收入。如果我們看看我們的利潤率，大約是 1400 萬美元、1500 萬美元、1800 萬美元的利潤，相當於每股收益 0.02 美元或 0.03 美元。如果你看看我們今年所做的事情，我們不僅克服了重回服務業務，這就是為什麼我們和我們的指南都因為服務的支援而上升。因此，我們認為明年我們應該能夠透過我們的服務業務來彌補這一點。

That's very helpful. And maybe just my follow-up would be around the Service margins perhaps. So one element is if I just maybe some incorrect matter, it looks like the Service margin in Q4 in the guide is down sequentially on flat sales and sort of flattish year-on-year despite a big increase year-to-date. Just wanted to check if that's right and if it's just conservatism or what have you. And then secondly, on the Service margin, how are we thinking about sort of price cost or price net of material cost and service wages playing out? Is that sort of getting larger into next year or narrowing as a tailwind context around that, please?

這非常有幫助。也許我的後續行動可能會圍繞著服務利潤。因此，有一個因素是，如果我可能有一些不正確的事情，那麼指南中第四季度的服務利潤率似乎在銷售額持平的情況下連續下降，儘管年初至今大幅增長，但同比持平。只是想檢查一下這是否正確，是否只是保守主義或你有什麼。其次，在服務利潤方面，我們如何考慮價格成本或扣除材料成本和服務工資的價格？請問明年這種情況會變得更大還是作為順風環境而縮小？

Absolutely. So I'll break it up into 2 separate questions over here. So first is, yes, the guide implies 24% margin for Service in the fourth quarter, which is sequentially down 80 basis points. But we're going to exit the year at what we guided full year. It's a very healthy margin rate. It's -- from last year where we actually -- it's a tough compare because last year, we grew margins by 60, 70 basis points in the same quarter.

絕對地。因此，我將在這裡將其分成兩個單獨的問題。首先，是的，該指南暗示第四季度的服務利潤率為 24%，比上一季下降了 80 個基點。但我們將以全年指導方針結束這一年。這是一個非常健康的保證金率。實際上，與去年相比，這是一個艱難的比較，因為去年同一季度我們的利潤率成長了 60、70 個基點。

And the reason there's a difference between the 24.8% and 24% is largely 2 things. It's the mix. We -- I mean, we are very encouraged. I mean the performance in third quarter margin was fantastic. I mean if you look at the portfolio maintenance side, portfolio is growing, pricing is sticking. We are flushing mod backlog into revenue. And the repair business, which we thought after years of very high growth is going to slow down, it's not. And it's because of the strategy of the team of penetrating portfolio, and that mix was high in the third quarter.

24.8% 和 24% 之間存在差異的原因主要有兩點。這是混合。我們——我的意思是，我們深受鼓舞。我的意思是第三季利潤率的表現非常出色。我的意思是，如果你看看投資組合維護方面，投資組合正在成長，定價也保持不變。我們正在將模組積壓的訂單轉化為收入。我們認為維修業務在經歷了多年的高速成長後將會放緩，但事實並非如此。這是因為滲透投資組合團隊的策略，而這種組合在第三季很高。

And obviously, productivity, which helped us get to the 24.8%. The big difference between Q3 and Q4 is now we're assuming that repair to be flattish in the fourth quarter and mod growing double digit. So that is a mix impact which is leading for the margins to be lower. But we're exiting the year at what we guided, so feel pretty good about it on the Service side.

顯然，生產力幫助我們達到了 24.8%。第三季和第四季之間的最大差異是，我們現在假設第四季的修復將持平，而模型將成長兩位數。因此，這是一種混合影響，導致利潤率下降。但我們將按照我們的指導結束這一年，因此在服務方面感覺非常好。

Yes, Julian, on the second question, we're talking about wages and inflation. Inflation on the Service side, while we have had wage inflation, we know we need to offset that with productivity. And what we've been doing with price has been fairly significant. We've had another quarter where our Service pricing like-for-like is up 4 points. And with inflation staying pretty high, especially in EMEA and in the Americas, we should be able to, as we negotiate the majority of our maintenance contracts first, second quarter next year, which are mainly backward-looking for this year's inflation, we expect to be able to get price again at levels comparable to that for '24.

是的，朱利安，關於第二個問題，我們談論的是薪資和通貨膨脹。服務業的通貨膨脹，雖然我們遇到了薪資上漲，但我們知道我們需要用生產力來抵銷它。我們在價格方面所做的工作相當重要。又一個季度，我們的服務定價年增了 4 個百分點。由於通貨膨脹率保持在相當高的水平，特別是在歐洲、中東和非洲和美洲，我們應該能夠在明年第二季度首先談判我們的大部分維護合同，這些合同主要是對今年通貨膨脹的回顧，我們預計能夠再次獲得與 24 年相當的價格水平。

We have line of sight now. The majority of our 23 maintenance contracts are in the books, as our commodity prices and everything else as we go in -- with 2.5 months left to go now. So we're actually feeling pretty good about Service pricing for next year and price cost. And we've negotiated with the majority of our collective bargaining across the globe. Most of our mechanics are represented. And I think I know we've treated them fairly, and we're able to recover that in both price and productivity.

我們現在有視線了。我們的 23 份維護合約中的大部分都已經在帳簿上，因為我們的商品價格和其他一切都已簽訂——現在還剩 2.5 個月。因此，我們實際上對明年的服務定價和價格成本感覺非常好。我們已經與全球大多數集體談判組織進行了談判。我們的大多數機械師都有代表。我想我知道我們公平對待他們，並且我們能夠在價格和生產力方面恢復這一點。

The next question comes from Joe O'Dea with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe O'Dea。

I wanted to circle back to the backlog comments, and could you just expand on how much of next 12 months revenue you generally have visibility into based on backlog. Let's then talk about that in Americas and Europe, and then in China. And in particular, in China, then the mix that would be coming out of backlog and the mix would be booked and shipped, and what you're seeing in some of those book-and-ship trends recently.

我想回到積壓評論，您能否詳細說明您通常可以根據積壓了解多少未來 12 個月的收入。我們再談談美洲和歐洲的情況，然後再談談中國的情況。特別是在中國，積壓訂單中的混合產品將被預訂和發貨，以及您最近在一些預訂和發貨趨勢中看到的情況。

Yes. Absolutely. If you look at our backlog, it is significantly more than a 12-month revenue, because we got major projects in there, we have other kind of long-tail projects as well. We very quickly -- the reason why I said earlier, we have confidence of America and Europe kind of growing low single digit next year is -- even if we snap the line today, we have very high visibility of that converting. We enter any particular year with 80%, 90% of Americas and EMEA revenue coming out of backlog.

是的。絕對地。如果你看一下我們的積壓訂單，你會發現它遠遠超過了 12 個月的收入，因為我們有主要項目，還有其他類型的長尾項目。我們很快——我之前說過，我們對明年美國和歐洲的信心會增長到低個位數的原因是——即使我們今天斷線，我們對這種轉換的可見性非常高。進入任何特定年份，美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區 80%、90% 的收入都來自積壓訂單。

Followed by that is Asia Pacific, ex China, which is probably a little bit lower depending upon the geography mix. But that backlog is up very healthy, it's probably double digit up, right? Then China is the only one where we have higher book and ship. So when we enter the year, I would say 2/3 of that revenue probably comes from the backlog and 1/3 comes from the book and ship, which is why for 3 of the 4 regions, we feel it's low single-digit growth for next year. China is the only variable that we need to see over the next few months to go.

其次是亞太地區（不包括中國），根據地理位置組合，該地區的價格可能會低一些。但積壓的數量成長得非常健康，可能是兩位數的成長，對嗎？那麼中國是唯一我們擁有更高的訂單和船舶的國家。因此，當我們進入今年時，我想說該收入的 2/3 可能來自積壓，1/3 來自預訂和發貨，這就是為什麼對於 4 個地區中的 3 個地區，我們認為其增長率較低明年。中國是未來幾個月我們需要看到的唯一變數。

Got it. That's helpful. And then -- just some perspective on where China volumes are. Can you talk about for the total market where volumes have been over the last several years, where they're trending this year? How you think it's setting up in terms of next year for some perspective on the current softness relative to constraint?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後——只是對中國銷售的一些看法。您能談談過去幾年整個市場的銷售狀況以及今年的趨勢嗎？您認為明年對目前相對於約束的疲軟狀況有何看法？

Joe, we would tell you that if you go back to peak years in China, we probably peaked -- the segment peaked New Equipment at about 650,000 units. That's been coming down now for the past 2 years, and we're at about 450,000 currently for this year. Still 450,000 of the 850,000 global units, so still a large, healthy market. And 450,000, you probably have to go back to 2018-ish time frame to where we had, obviously, pre-COVID to having a market like this. And so we still think it's a very attractive market. We've gained share there this year as we look in China, and we will continue to execute our strategies of our agents and distributors, being our partners, which we now have about 2,350 agents and distributors, more than twice since we spun.

喬，我們會告訴你，如果你回到中國的高峰年，我們可能達到了頂峰——該細分市場新設備的峰值約為 650,000 台。過去兩年來這個數字一直在下降，今年目前約為 45 萬人。全球 85 萬台中仍有 45 萬台，因此仍然是一個龐大、健康的市場。 450,000，你可能必須回到 2018 年左右的時間框架，顯然，在新冠疫情之前，我們才有這樣的市場。所以我們仍然認為這是一個非常有吸引力的市場。今年我們在中國的市場份額已經增加，我們將繼續執行我們的代理商和分銷商策略，成為我們的合作夥伴，我們現在擁有約 2,350 家代理商和分銷商，是我們成立以來的兩倍多。

We focus on our key accounts. And we've also really focused on the tier cities that are having an impact. So if you look at the third quarter, Tier 1 cities -- Beijing, Shanghai are the best market segments. And then obviously, it trailed off as you got all the way to Tier 5. So we've adjusted our strategy. That's why our agents and distributors are so helpful, as well as our internal sales folks that support them. The key accounts, again, those relationships are strong and they're yielding for us.

我們專注於我們的關鍵客戶。我們也非常關注正在產生影響的三線城市。因此，如果你看第三季度，一線城市－北京、上海是最好的細分市場。然後很明顯，當你一路到達第 5 層時，它就減弱了。所以我們調整了我們的策略。這就是為什麼我們的代理商和經銷商以及為他們提供支援的內部銷售人員如此樂於助人。再說一遍，關鍵客戶的關係很牢固，也為我們帶來了收益。

The next question comes from Stephen Tusa with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂芬·圖薩。

You mentioned the trends of what's going on in China. I think one of your competitors had some pretty good orders numbers there today. Can you maybe help reconcile that? Because I don't -- I think you guys were obviously -- I think you were down. But maybe you could just maybe help reconcile what the difference might be? Obviously, any quarter, there's some lumpiness. But just curious from a share perspective there, just trying to tie those 2 things together.

您提到了中國的發展趨勢。我認為你們的一位競爭對手今天的訂單量相當不錯。你能幫忙協調一下嗎？因為我不——我認為你們顯然——我認為你們情緒低落。但也許你可以幫助協調可能的差異？顯然，任何季度都會出現一些波動。但只是從分享的角度好奇，只是試著將這兩件事連結在一起。

Yes. I think you're going to -- I mean, orders are lumpy kind of across the board for both organization and New Equipment. And I would argue, share is also kind of hard to measure on a quarterly basis and something more you'd like to do on an annual level when you really have some fidelity in the information. I can't comment on what our competitors are doing, but I can tell you that we're -- again, our China team is executing our strategy. And in a downmarket, our China team has both driven cost out in terms of material productivity so that.

是的。我想你會——我的意思是，組織和新設備的訂單都是不穩定的。我認為，份額也很難按季度衡量，而當您對資訊確實有一定的保真度時，您更願意在年度水平上衡量份額。我無法評論我們的競爭對手正在做什麼，但我可以告訴你，我們的中國團隊正在執行我們的策略。在低端市場，我們的中國團隊在材料生產力方面降低了成本，因此。

Again, if you look at and you step back, we're driving growth in all lines of business in Otis, especially in Service. We're seeing good growth in 3 regions outside of China. But our China team has really -- and despite a tough macro environment on New Equipment, has really now added this Service component, which we're 365,000 units in our portfolio in China, more than double from when we spun. And our China modernization business has grown double digits this year. So we're finding -- we're moving mod into the factories. So we're optimizing the cost basis there, and you're going to see that modernization business really, in China as well as globally, take off.

再說一次，如果您回頭看一下，您會發現我們正在推動奧的斯所有業務線的成長，尤其是服務領域。我們看到中國以外的 3 個地區出現了良好的成長。但我們的中國團隊確實——儘管新設備的宏觀環境嚴峻，現在確實增加了這個服務組件，我們在中國的產品組合中有 365,000 台，比我們剝離時增加了一倍多。今年我們的中國現代化業務實現了兩位數成長。所以我們發現——我們正在將模組轉移到工廠。因此，我們正在優化那裡的成本基礎，您將看到現代化業務在中國和全球真正起飛。

And for us, we need to watch that mix. That's what Anurag commented on for fourth quarter for Service margins. But we think -- we know it's actually worth getting that modernization business because it will bring more units to our portfolio. So we're going to end this year at 2.3 million units in our portfolio. And when you think about 1% portfolio growth throughout the decade before we spun, and now it's 5 -- 4 straight quarters over 4%, we're going to end this year at 2.3 million units, and that is the strongest. But it's still at 2.3 million units of a 21 million, 22 million segment, leaves us lots of room for growth. And that's why we're convinced the Service-driven growth strategy globally is the right answer for us and our shareholders.

對我們來說，我們需要觀察這種混合。這就是阿努拉格對第四季服務利潤率的評論。但我們認為——我們知道獲得現代化業務實際上是值得的，因為它將為我們的投資組合帶來更多單位。因此，今年底我們的投資組合數量將達到 230 萬台。當你想到我們旋轉之前的十年中投資組合增長率為 1% 時，現在已經連續 5 - 4 個季度超過 4%，我們今年年底的銷量將達到 230 萬套，這是最強勁的。但在 2,100 萬、2,200 萬的細分市場中，它的銷量仍為 230 萬，這給我們留下了很大的成長空間。這就是為什麼我們相信全球服務驅動的成長策略對我們和我們的股東來說是正確的答案。

Yes. Clearly, the service is very strong. Just a question on cash. I missed the first part of the call, but any reason for that tweak on cash specifically?

是的。看得出來，服務非常強大。只是關於現金的問題。我錯過了電話會議的第一部分，但是具體對現金進行調整有什麼原因嗎？

Yes, absolutely. It's -- okay. So firstly, on cash, we are at about $934 million, we got $550 million. And I guess your question is tweaking to the low end of the guidance, there's 2 reasons. One is clearly lower downpayments because of new equipment orders, which have been a little bit lower. But second is also a repair business, which is -- we thought in this year would be low single-digit repair, it's growing at a very good rate. Great for sales, great for profit on the P&L side, but we do get paid after we complete our work. So it's a little bit of a receivable drag. I think it's a combination of these 2 reasons why you see a little bit of a tweak in the cash flow guide.

是的，一點沒錯。沒關係。首先，就現金而言，我們大約有 9.34 億美元，我們有 5.5 億美元。我猜你的問題正在調整到指南的低端，有兩個原因。其中之一是由於新設備訂單的影響，首付款明顯較低，而新設備訂單的金額略低一些。但第二個也是維修業務，我們認為今年的維修業務將是低個位數，但它正在以非常好的速度成長。非常適合銷售，非常適合損益方面的利潤，但我們在完成工作後確實會得到報酬。所以這是一個可接收的阻力。我認為這是您在現金流量指南中看到一些調整的兩個原因的結合。

Yes. And for any of our customers listening, Steve, I think it's important they know that when they need a repair, we do the repair. And then we make sure we bill and follow-up to collect. And that's really what happens in that repair world. We know customers if they've gotten an elevator down, we're going to get them back up.

是的。史蒂夫，對於我們所有傾聽的客戶來說，我認為重要的是他們知道，當他們需要維修時，我們會進行維修。然後我們確保開立帳單並跟進收款。這就是維修世界中真正發生的事情。我們知道，如果顧客下了電梯，我們就會把他們送上來。

Sorry, one last quick one. A lot of volatility in multifamily in the U.S., kind of hard to tell where that business is going. Any impact on you guys from that? And thanks a lot for the answers to the questions.

抱歉，最後一件事。美國的多戶住宅波動很大，很難判斷該業務的發展方向。這對你們有什麼影響嗎？非常感謝您對問題的回答。

Yes. So I mean that the multifamily was our -- from a market perspective, a segment perspective, was the worst performing in the U.S. this past quarter. Now it's down off record highs for multiple years, and there's still demand for it. But we're just seeing the developers slowdown on the start button, which is when we get those advances that Anurag was talking about in his cash answer.

是的。所以我的意思是，從市場角度、細分市場角度來看，多戶住宅是我們上個季度在美國表現最差的。現在它已經從多年來的歷史高點回落，但仍然有需求。但我們只是看到開發商放慢了啟動按鈕的速度，此時我們就得到了阿努拉格在他的現金答案中談到的那些進展。

So we'll wait and see. If rates stay where they are, developer will figure out the math for this because demand is still there for housing. So we're in a wait and see. But our backlog in -- especially in North America, is strong mid-single digit, including a lot of multifamily and logs. So we're going to keep performing and then our team will drive them as they come.

所以我們拭目以待。如果利率保持不變，開發商將計算出這個數字，因為住房需求仍然存在。所以我們正在觀望。但我們的積壓訂單——尤其是在北美——處於中等個位數的強勁水平，其中包括大量的多戶住宅和原木。因此，我們將繼續表現，然後我們的團隊將在他們到來時推動他們。

The next question comes from Nick Housden with RBC.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的尼克·豪斯登。

So yes, just on that free cash flow point, I mean, it looks like China are going to go back to that 650,000 unit mark. So I'm just wondering if that means that, over the medium term, there needs to be a permanent reset on the expectations for conversion from the current sort of 100% to 110% target that you've already got? That's the first one.

所以，是的，就自由現金流點而言，我的意思是，中國似乎將回到 65 萬輛大關。所以我只是想知道這是否意味著，從中期來看，需要對轉換預期從目前的 100% 目標永久重置為 110% 目標？這是第一個。

Well, I can take that one. The answer is no. No reset.

好吧，我可以接受那個。答案是不行。沒有重置。

Okay.

好的。

Theres no reset because the 2 -- the new lower -- definitely lower orders, but also we're executing on high backlog. So all these will normalize. And the repair revenue will also kind of -- will start converting more into cash. So I don't think there's any reason for us to reset the target, yes.

沒有重置，因為 2（新的較低訂單）肯定是較低的訂單，而且我們正在執行大量積壓訂單。所以所有這些都會正常化。維修收入也將開始更多地轉化為現金。所以我認為我們沒有任何理由重置目標，是的。

Okay. Great. Very clear. Then just a second question on some of the competitive dynamics in modernization. So it sounds like when you guys or some of your European competitors modernize a unit, especially in China, it's almost always someone else's unit. And very often, it's one of the Asian competitors units that you're modernizing and then moving into your own portfolio. Are the Asian guys just not focused on modernization? Or why does it seem to be the case that you are kind of eating their lunch there?

好的。偉大的。非常清楚。接下來是關於現代化中一些競爭動態的第二個問題。所以聽起來，當你們或你們的一些歐洲競爭對手對一個單位進行現代化改造時，尤其是在中國，它幾乎總是別人的單位。通常，您正在對亞洲競爭對手的單位之一進行現代化改造，然後將其納入自己的投資組合中。難道亞洲人不關注現代化嗎？或者為什麼你似乎在那裡吃他們的午餐？

Well, your hypothesis that most of our modernization is on non-Otis equipment in China is accurate. But remember, our China market share is -- our share of segment in Service is pretty low, because 75% of the -- all the units are maintained by ISPs. So I wouldn't specifically say it's -- some of the units we're getting back are Otis units that are not on portfolio, many are non-Otis units, but they're not necessarily Japanese or European. I can't comment on who they are.

好吧，您關於我們的大部分現代化改造是在中國的非奧的斯設備上的假設是正確的。但請記住，我們在中國的市場份額——我們在服務領域的份額相當低，因為 75% 的——所有單元都是由 ISP 維護的。所以我不會具體說——我們收回的一些單位是不在投資組合中的奧的斯單位，許多是非奧的斯單位，但它們不一定是日本或歐洲的。我無法評論他們是誰。

But what we've done a we've created very innovative packages to be able to put our hardware on non-Otis equipment to modernize it, to add new technology and then to convert it into our portfolio.

但我們所做的，我們創建了非常創新的軟體包，能夠將我們的硬體安裝在非奧的斯設備上，對其進行現代化改造，添加新技術，然後將其轉換為我們的產品組合。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Gautam Khanna with TD Cowen.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Gautam Khanna 和 TD Cowen。

I had 2 questions. First, Anurag, on your comment about escalators next year being comparable to that of this year, I was just wondering if you could elaborate maybe by region, and why that's so given the level of inflation this year seems below that of last year? And then I have a follow-up.

我有兩個問題。首先，阿努拉格，關於你關於明年自動扶梯與今年可比的評論，我只是想知道你是否可以按地區詳細說明，以及考慮到今年的通膨水平似乎低於去年，為什麼會如此？然後我有一個後續行動。

Sorry. You mean on the Service business, the price escalation?

對不起。您是指服務業務的價格上漲嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. So yes, listen, let's start with Europe, where we got about half of our portfolio over there. Inflation is still pretty high in Europe. Not as high as last year, but not too far off from there. And most of our contracts are right now in negotiation, and they're obviously linked to an index. So we feel pretty good about the pricing increase in Europe next year could be around the mid-single-digit level again. So that's really encouraging. Inflation in the Americas is also not coming down to a greater extent, so we should see that.

是的。所以，是的，聽著，讓我們從歐洲開始，我們大約一半的投資組合都在那裡。歐洲的通貨膨脹率仍然相當高。雖然沒有去年那麼高，但也相差不遠。我們的大部分合約目前都在談判中，而且它們顯然與指數相關。因此，我們對明年歐洲的價格上漲可能再次達到中個位數水準感到非常滿意。這確實令人鼓舞。美洲的通膨也沒有大幅下降，所以我們應該看到這一點。

So these 2 definitely give us confidence on pricing going up. The rest of Asia has always been a low to mid-single-digit price increase, that will continue. And China, I think, as I mentioned earlier, there is more price discipline, but it's never been a price escalator market on the Service side. So put all of that together, it gives us confidence that there's going to be another good price increase next year on top of our portfolio growth, which should mean that our maintenance business should grow mid-single digit plus.

所以這兩個肯定讓我們對價格上漲充滿信心。亞洲其他地區的價格漲幅一直處於中低個位數，而且這種情況還會持續下去。我認為，正如我之前提到的，中國有更多的價格紀律，但它從來都不是服務方面的價格自動扶梯市場。因此，將所有這些放在一起，這讓我們相信，除了我們的投資組合成長之外，明年價格還會出現另一次良好的成長，這意味著我們的維護業務應該會實現中個位數以上的增長。

Okay. And just a quick follow-up. Could you talk a little bit about any trends in churn coming down in the quarter and maybe year-to-date on Service renewals?

好的。只是快速跟進。您能否談談本季乃至年初至今服務續約方面客戶流失率下降的趨勢？

So we will share our statistics at our quarter earnings. We do that on an annual basis, but there's no significant changes that we've seen, but we'll share that next quarter.

因此，我們將分享我們季度收益的統計數據。我們每年都會這樣做，但我們沒有看到重大變化，但我們將在下個季度分享。

I show no further questions. At this time, I would now like to turn the call back to Judy Marks for closing remarks.

我沒有再提出任何問題。現在，我想將電話轉回給朱迪·馬克斯（Judy Marks）做總結發言。

Yes. Thank you, Michelle. Our Service-driven business model is working as we approach 2.3 million unit portfolio by year-end, with the compounding life tied to each additional unit. Year-to-date results are indicative of the strength of our strategy as we continue to prioritize value creation for our shareholders for the remainder of 2023 and beyond.

是的。謝謝你，米歇爾。我們的服務驅動型業務模式正在發揮作用，到年底我們的產品組合已接近 230 萬個，複利壽命與每個額外的單位相關。今年迄今的業績顯示了我們策略的優勢，我們將在 2023 年剩餘時間及以後繼續優先考慮為股東創造價值。

Thank you for joining us today. And stay safe and well.

感謝您今天加入我們。並保持安全和健康。

Thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。