奧的斯電梯 (OTIS) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Otis First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being carried live on the Internet and recorded for replay. Presentation materials are available for download from Otis' website at www.otis.com. I'll now turn it over to Michael Rednor, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

早上好，歡迎來到奧的斯 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。此電話正在互聯網上直播並錄製以供重播。演示材料可從 Otis 的網站 www.otis.com 下載。我現在將其轉交給投資者關係高級總監 Michael Rednor。

Thank you, Didi. Welcome to Otis' First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. On the call with me today are Judy Marks, Chair, CEO and President; and Anurag Maheshwari, Executive Vice President and CFO. Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations, excluding restructuring and significant nonrecurring items. A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the appendix of the webcast. We also remind listeners that the presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Otis' SEC filings, including our Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

謝謝你，滴滴。歡迎來到奧的斯 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。今天與我通電話的是董事長、首席執行官兼總裁朱迪·馬克斯 (Judy Marks)；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Anurag Maheshwari。請注意，除非另有說明，否則公司將談論持續經營的結果，不包括重組和重大非經常性項目。這些措施的協調可以在網絡廣播的附錄中找到。我們還提醒聽眾，該演示文稿包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性。奧的斯向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括我們的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格的季度報告，提供了可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的重要因素的詳細信息。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Judy.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給朱迪。

Thank you, Mike, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. We hope everyone listening is safe and well. Starting with first quarter highlights on Slide 3. Otis delivered a solid first quarter to start 2023, driving strong financial performance and executing on our capital allocation strategy despite continued market uncertainty. We achieved organic sales growth, driven by our service business, and expanded adjusted service operating profit margins by 40 basis points, leading to mid-single-digit adjusted EPS growth. Our Service segment performance, in addition to our maintenance portfolio growth of more than 4%, reinforces the strength of our business model.

謝謝邁克，也謝謝大家加入我們。我們希望每個收聽的人都平安無事。從幻燈片 3 的第一季度亮點開始。奧的斯在 2023 年開始的第一季度表現穩健，儘管市場持續存在不確定性，但仍推動了強勁的財務業績並執行了我們的資本配置戰略。在我們的服務業務的推動下，我們實現了有機銷售增長，並將調整後的服務營業利潤率擴大了 40 個基點，從而實現了中個位數的調整後每股收益增長。我們的服務部門業績，加上我們超過 4% 的維護組合增長，加強了我們商業模式的實力。

We continue to execute our balanced capital allocation strategy with $175 million of share repurchases in the first quarter. Yesterday, we announced a 17.2% increase to our quarterly dividend. Since spin, we have increased our dividend 70%, emphasizing the importance we place on disciplined capital management and delivering value to our shareholders.

我們繼續執行我們的平衡資本配置策略，第一季度回購了 1.75 億美元的股票。昨天，我們宣布將季度股息提高 17.2%。自分拆以來，我們將股息增加了 70%，強調了我們對紀律嚴明的資本管理和為股東創造價值的重視。

In the Americas, building on our strong track record of major project execution and service across Canada, Otis was selected by the Montreal metro system to replace escalators at 17 stations, while providing units for 5 new blue line stations. In total, 97 Otis escalators will keep metro passengers on the move daily. In China, Hefei Metro placed a new order of 250 Otis ONE connected escalators and elevators across 3 new lines. Real-time data insights, remote monitoring and predictive maintenance will all help bring the Hefei Metro into the future and add to our growing infrastructure installed base.

在美洲，基於我們在加拿大重大項目執行和服務方面的良好記錄，蒙特利爾地鐵系統選擇奧的斯更換 17 個車站的自動扶梯，同時為 5 個新的藍線車站提供設備。總共有 97 台奧的斯自動扶梯將使地鐵乘客每天都在移動。在中國，合肥地鐵新訂購了 3 條新線路的 250 台 Otis ONE 聯網自動扶梯和電梯。實時數據洞察力、遠程監控和預測性維護都將有助於使合肥地鐵走向未來，並增加我們不斷增長的基礎設施安裝基礎。

In Germany, Otis has been selected by Cigna Group to modernize the iconic Dusseldorf Department store Carsch-Haus as part of a larger renovation. Otis will provide 17 units, including our energy-efficient link escalators and Gen2 stream elevators with ReGen drives. The elevators will also feature e-view in car displays. After the modernization is completed in 2024, and Otis will service the units as part of our long-standing framework contract with KaDaWe Group, which operates Carsch-Haus and other leading department stores in Germany.

在德國，Cigna Group 選擇奧的斯對標誌性的杜塞爾多夫百貨公司 Carsch-Haus 進行現代化改造，作為更大規模改造的一部分。奧的斯將提供 17 個單元，包括我們的節能自動扶梯和配備 ReGen 驅動器的 Gen2 流電梯。電梯還將在汽車顯示器中配備電子視圖。現代化改造於 2024 年完成後，作為我們與 KaDaWe Group 長期框架合同的一部分，奧的斯將為這些設備提供服務，KaDaWe Group 在德國經營著 Carsch-Haus 和其他領先的百貨公司。

In South Korea, we're providing 51 of our signature Gen2 elevators for the Suncheon (inaudible) luxury apartment complex. The campus includes more than 2,000 units and buildings up to 29 stories. And we continue to drive progress toward our ESG goals as shared in our 2022 ESG report published earlier in April. Just this month, we announced the installation of solar panels at our Nippon Otis Logistics and Engineering Center in Japan. This upgrade is expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the facility by 27% compared to 2022, and represents our eighth manufacturing site globally with solar panel arrays.

在韓國，我們為順天（聽不清）豪華公寓大樓提供了 51 部標誌性的 Gen2 電梯。校園包括 2,000 多個單元和高達 29 層的建築物。我們將繼續推動我們的 ESG 目標取得進展，正如我們在 4 月初發布的 2022 年 ESG 報告中所分享的那樣。就在本月，我們宣佈在日本的 Nippon Otis 物流和工程中心安裝太陽能電池板。與 2022 年相比，此次升級預計將使工廠的溫室氣體排放量減少 27%，並且代表我們在全球擁有太陽能電池板陣列的第八個製造基地。

Moving to Slide 4, Q1 results and 2023 outlook. New equipment orders were up 7.4%, driven by strong growth in the Americas and Asia Pacific, and we ended the quarter with adjusted backlog up 10% at constant currency. We continue to drive share gains in new equipment with 70 basis points of improvement in the quarter, led by our outperformance in China, where our orders were down modestly in a market where we estimate was down approximately 10%. We continue to perform well across all other regions.

轉到幻燈片 4，第一季度結果和 2023 年展望。在美洲和亞太地區強勁增長的推動下，新設備訂單增長了 7.4%，我們在本季度結束時調整後的積壓訂單按固定匯率計算增長了 10%。我們繼續推動新設備的份額增長，本季度增長了 70 個基點，這得益於我們在中國的出色表現，我們的訂單在我們估計下降約 10% 的市場中小幅下降。我們在所有其他地區繼續表現良好。

We're especially encouraged by our modernization performance in the quarter with nearly 30% orders growth driven by strong performance in the Americas and Asia. This growth is driven by our continued rollout of standardized packages for our mod offerings, coupled with improvements in our sales force coverage. Our mod backlog is up double digits in all regions, as mod demand continues to remain robust.

我們對本季度的現代化表現感到特別鼓舞，在美洲和亞洲的強勁表現推動下訂單增長近 30%。這一增長是由於我們不斷推出 mod 產品的標準化包，以及我們銷售人員覆蓋範圍的改善。由於模組需求繼續保持強勁，我們所有地區的模組積壓量都增長了兩位數。

Organic sales were up 3.6%, and adjusted operating profit was up $7 million at constant currency, driven by performance in the Service segment.

有機銷售額增長 3.6%，調整後營業利潤按固定匯率計算增長 700 萬美元，這主要受服務部門業績的推動。

Before I discuss our 2023 financial outlook, let me briefly update you on our global market outlook, which largely remains unchanged. Entering the year, we expected global new equipment to be down mid-single digits to approximately 900,000 units, largely due to China, which we expected to be down 5% to 10%, and our outlook in that key region remains the same. We also expected Asia Pac to be up mid-single digits or better, and both the Americas and EMEA to be flat. With the first quarter in the books, we now expect Asia Pac to come in closer to high single digits, offsetting a reduction in our EMEA outlook, which we now expect to be down low to mid-single digits. Our outlook for global installed base growth remains unchanged at roughly 5%, which will add close to 1 million maintenance units, bringing the installed base to roughly 21 million units with high-single-digit growth in Asia and low-single-digit growth in the Americas and EMEA.

在討論我們的 2023 年財務展望之前，讓我簡要介紹一下我們的全球市場展望，該展望基本保持不變。進入今年，我們預計全球新設備將下降中個位數至約 900,000 台，這主要是由於中國，我們預計中國將下降 5% 至 10%，我們對該關鍵地區的前景保持不變。我們還預計亞太地區將實現中等個位數或更好的增長，而美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區將持平。根據第一季度的賬簿，我們現在預計亞太地區將接近高個位數，以抵消我們 EMEA 前景的下調，我們現在預計將下降到中等個位數。我們對全球裝機量增長的展望保持在 5% 左右不變，這將增加近 100 萬個維護單位，使裝機量達到約 2100 萬個，其中亞洲的高個位數增長和低個位數的增長美洲和 EMEA。

Turning to Otis' 2023 financial outlook. We now expect net sales to be in the range of $13.9 billion to $14.2 billion, up 2.5% to 4.5% versus the prior year, which is a 75-basis-point improvement from the prior outlook at the midpoint, driven by FX. We still expect organic sales to be up 4% to 6% with new equipment up 3% to 5% and Service up 5% to 7%. Adjusted operating profit is expected to be up $90 million to $150 million at actual currency and up $130 million to $175 million at constant currency, with adjusted EPS in the range of $3.40 to $3.50, a 7% to 10% increase versus the prior year and an approximately $0.03 improvement from the prior outlook at the midpoint. We expect free cash flow to come in as we guided in February, in a range of $1.5 billion to $1.55 billion with 105% to 115% conversion of GAAP net income.

轉向奧的斯的 2023 年財務展望。在外彙的推動下，我們現在預計淨銷售額將在 139 億美元至 142 億美元之間，比上年增長 2.5% 至 4.5%，比之前的中點預期高 75 個基點。我們仍然預計有機銷售額將增長 4% 至 6%，其中新設備增長 3% 至 5%，服務增長 5% 至 7%。按實際貨幣計算，調整後營業利潤預計增長 9000 萬至 1.5 億美元，按固定匯率計算增長 1.3 億美元至 1.75 億美元，調整後每股收益在 3.40 美元至 3.50 美元之間，較上年增長 7% 至 10%，比先前的中點展望提高約 0.03 美元。我們預計自由現金流將按照我們在 2 月份的指導，在 15 億美元至 15.5 億美元之間，GAAP 淨收入轉換率為 105% 至 115%。

We remain disciplined in our capital allocation strategy, and we'll continue to return the vast majority of our cash generation to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We will also continue advancing our bolt-on M&A strategy to add density to our growing maintenance portfolio. With that, I'll turn it over to Anurag to walk through our Q1 results and full year outlook in more detail.

我們在資本配置策略上保持自律，我們將繼續通過股息和股票回購將我們產生的絕大部分現金返還給股東。我們還將繼續推進我們的補強併購戰略，以增加我們不斷增長的維護產品組合的密度。有了這個，我將把它交給 Anurag 來更詳細地介紹我們的第一季度業績和全年展望。

Thank you, Judy. Starting with first quarter results on Slide 5. We delivered net sales of $3.3 billion, with organic sales up 3.6%. This represents our tenth consecutive quarter of organic growth with better-than-expected performance in both segments. Adjusted operating profit was down $19 million at actual FX and up $7 million at constant currency. Drop-through on higher service volume, favorable service pricing and traction reproductivity in both segments were partially offset by inflationary pressures, including annual wage increases, new equipment mix and higher corporate costs.

謝謝你，朱迪。從幻燈片 5 的第一季度業績開始。我們實現了 33 億美元的淨銷售額，有機銷售額增長了 3.6%。這是我們連續第十個季度實現有機增長，兩個部門的表現都好於預期。調整後營業利潤按實際匯率計算下降 1900 萬美元，按固定匯率計算增加 700 萬美元。兩個細分市場的更高服務量、有利的服務定價和牽引力再生產率的下降被通脹壓力部分抵消，包括年度工資增長、新設備組合和更高的企業成本。

Adjusted EPS growth of $0.04 in the quarter was driven by stronger operational performance, continued tax rate improvement and a lower share count. Accretion from the Zardoya transaction offsets the $0.04 of foreign exchange headwind.

本季度調整後的每股收益增長 0.04 美元，這主要得益於更強勁的運營業績、持續的稅率改善和較低的股票數量。 Zardoya 交易的增加抵消了 0.04 美元的外匯逆風。

Moving to Slide 6. Q1 new equipment orders were up 7.4%, led by Asia Pacific and the Americas, up 27% and 15%, respectively, with modest growth of 1 point in EMEA, more than offsetting a 3% decline in orders in China. Strong] orders growth has contributed to our adjusted new equipment backlog increasing 10% at constant currency, with growth in Americas, APAC and EMEA. China backlog was roughly flat. Our strong backlog provides new equipment sales visibility for the balance of the year as well as over the medium term.

轉到幻燈片 6。Q1 新設備訂單增長 7.4%，其中亞太地區和美洲領漲，分別增長 27% 和 15%，其中 EMEA 適度增長 1 個百分點，抵消了 3% 的訂單下降中國。強勁的]訂單增長導致我們調整後的新設備積壓按固定匯率計算增加了 10%，其中美洲、亞太地區和歐洲、中東和非洲地區都有增長。中國積壓訂單大致持平。我們大量的積壓訂單為今年餘下時間和中期提供了新設備的銷售可見性。

Globally, pricing on new equipment orders was up mid-single digits, leading to sequential backlog margin improvement in all regions. We benefited from pricing increases of approximately 10% in the Americas and mid-single digit in both EMEA and APAC. While pricing in China remains competitive, down low single digits, we are driving material productivity to achieve slight price/cost favorability in the region while continuing to increase our share.

在全球範圍內，新設備訂單的價格上漲了中個位數，導致所有地區的積壓訂單利潤率環比提高。我們受益於美洲約 10% 的價格上漲以及 EMEA 和亞太地區的中個位數上漲。雖然中國的定價仍然具有競爭力，下降了低個位數，但我們正在推動材料生產率以在該地區實現輕微的價格/成本優勢，同時繼續增加我們的份額。

New Equipment organic sales were roughly flat in the quarter, with 22% growth in Asia Pacific, driven by strong performance in India and Korea, and high single-digit growth in EMEA, largely from Southern Europe. This growth was offset by a mid-single-digit decline in the Americas due to job site delays and supply chain impacts and a 10% decline in China as expected, driven by the lower demand environment.

新設備有機銷售額在本季度大致持平，亞太地區增長 22%，這得益於印度和韓國的強勁表現，以及歐洲、中東和非洲地區（主要來自南歐）的高個位數增長。由於工作現場延誤和供應鏈的影響，美洲出現了中等個位數的下降，而中國在較低的需求環境下出現了預期的 10% 下降，抵消了這一增長。

Adjusted operating profit declined $24 million at actual FX and $19 million at constant currency as strong material productivity was more than offset by the impact of unfavorable regional and product mix.

調整後的營業利潤按實際匯率計算下降了 2400 萬美元，按固定匯率計算下降了 1900 萬美元，因為強勁的材料生產率被不利的區域和產品組合的影響所抵消。

Turning to Service segment results on Slide 7. Maintenance portfolio units were up 4.2%, with recaptured units more than offsetting cancellations. This was the sixth consecutive quarter of accelerating portfolio growth, with China delivering another quarter of IT's portfolio growth.

轉向幻燈片 7 上的服務部門業績。維護投資組合單位增長 4.2%，收回的單位多於抵消的取消。這是連續第六個季度加速投資組合增長，中國又貢獻了四分之一的 IT 投資組合增長。

Modernization orders grew nearly 30%, our third consecutive quarter of more than 10% growth, driven by several major project wins, the continued success of our mod packages and good momentum in proposal activity from improved sales coverage. Our modernization business continues to perform well across all regions, with backlog up 13% at constant currency.

現代化訂單增長近 30%，我們連續第三個季度增長超過 10%，這得益於幾個重大項目的勝利、我們的改裝包的持續成功以及銷售覆蓋率提高帶來的提案活動的良好勢頭。我們的現代化業務在所有地區繼續表現良好，積壓訂單按固定匯率計算增長了 13%。

Service organic sales of 6.3% was modestly ahead of expectations. Maintenance and repair grew 7%, driven by solid repair volume, strong portfolio growth and 3.5 points of maintenance pricing improvement on a like-for-like basis. Organic modernization sales were up 3.3% in the quarter, driven by EMEA and Asia, partially offset by the timing of major project execution in the Americas. Service operating profit at constant currency was up $40 million and margins expanded 40 basis points. Drop-through on higher volume, favorable pricing and productivity more than offset the headwinds from annual wage increases and higher material costs.

6.3% 的服務有機銷售額略高於預期。維護和維修增長 7%，這得益於穩定的維修量、強勁的產品組合增長以及 3.5 個百分點的維護定價同比改善。在 EMEA 和亞洲的推動下，有機現代化銷售額在本季度增長了 3.3%，部分被美洲主要項目執行的時間所抵消。按固定匯率計算的服務運營利潤增加了 4000 萬美元，利潤率擴大了 40 個基點。更高的產量、優惠的價格和生產率帶來的好處遠遠抵消了年度工資增長和材料成本上漲帶來的不利影響。

Moving to Slide 8 and the revised outlook. Overall, we are off to a solid start in 2023, delivering strong orders, sales and portfolio growth, while expanding service margins to drive mid-single-digit EPS growth in the quarter despite continued macroeconomic uncertainty. This strong start gives us confidence to reiterate our February outlook for organic sales growth, adjusted operating profit at constant currency and adjusted profit margins at both the Otis and the segment level.

轉到幻燈片 8 和修改後的展望。總體而言，儘管宏觀經濟持續存在不確定性，但我們在 2023 年開局良好，訂單、銷售和產品組合增長強勁，同時擴大服務利潤率以推動本季度每股收益實現中個位數增長。這一強勁的開端讓我們有信心重申我們 2 月份對有機銷售增長的展望、按固定匯率計算的調整後營業利潤以及奧的斯和細分市場層面的調整後利潤率。

We are improving our adjusted operating profit outlook by $20 million versus the prior guide, now expected to be up $90 million to $150 million from a smaller foreign exchange headwind. This FX change results in an approximately $0.03 increase in adjusted EPS at the midpoint. Our free cash flow outlook remains unchanged at $1.5 billion to $1.55 billion for the full year. In the first quarter, free cash flow came in at $253 million, with working capital a use of cash of roughly $125 million, largely due to payables. We expect this to unwind as we execute on our new equipment backlog throughout the year.

我們將調整後的營業利潤預期比之前的指南提高了 2000 萬美元，現在預計由於較小的外匯逆風而增加 9000 萬美元至 1.5 億美元。這一外匯變化導致調整後每股收益中點增加約 0.03 美元。我們全年的自由現金流前景保持在 15 億美元至 15.5 億美元不變。第一季度，自由現金流為 2.53 億美元，營運資金使用的現金約為 1.25 億美元，主要是應付賬款。我們預計隨著我們全年執行新設備積壓訂單，這種情況會得到緩解。

Taking a further look at the organic sales outlook on Slide 9. Our outlook remains consistent with the prior guide across all regions and segments with new equipment up 3% to 5% and Service up 5% to 7%, driving total Otis organic sales growth of 4% to 6% for the year. New Equipment organic sales growth will be driven by the Americas, APAC and EMEA, as we execute on the strong backlog built over the past few years. We still expect to achieve roughly flat new equipment sales in China given the quarter ending backlog and favorable compares into year-end.

進一步查看幻燈片 9 的有機銷售前景。我們的前景與所有地區和細分市場的先前指南保持一致，新設備增長 3% 至 5%，服務增長 5% 至 7%，推動奧的斯有機銷售總額增長年增長率為 4% 至 6%。新設備的有機銷售增長將由美洲、亞太地區和歐洲、中東和非洲地區推動，因為我們正在處理過去幾年積累的大量積壓訂單。鑑於本季度末的積壓訂單和與年底相比有利的情況，我們仍預計中國的新設備銷售將大致持平。

On the Service side, we expect to build on our performance in the first quarter with growth in repair work moderating and modernization accelerating. Overall, we would expect to see consistent growth at around the midpoint of our guide each quarter.

在服務方面，我們預計將在第一季度的業績基礎上再接再厲，維修工作的增長放緩，現代化進程加快。總體而言，我們預計每個季度都會在我們指南的中點附近看到持續增長。

Moving to our adjusted EPS outlook on Slide 10. We now expect 7% to 10% growth, reflecting an approximately $0.03 increase from the prior guide at the midpoint. We anticipate second quarter EPS to be flattish year-over-year as strong operational performance is offset by last year's lower tax rate. The continued strong growth in our Service segment, coupled with pricing and commodity tailwinds and new equipment, will drive the acceleration in our second half EPS growth. For FX, we are now assuming full year rates of 1.06 and 6.93 for the euro and CNY respectively.

轉向我們在幻燈片 10 上調整後的每股收益展望。我們現在預計增長 7% 至 10%，反映出比先前的中點指南增加約 0.03 美元。我們預計第二季度每股收益同比持平，因為強勁的運營業績被去年較低的稅率所抵消。我們服務部門的持續強勁增長，加上定價和商品順風以及新設備，將推動我們下半年每股收益增長的加速。對於外匯，我們現在假設歐元和人民幣的全年匯率分別為 1.06 和 6.93。

Overall, we are encouraged by our first quarter results and well positioned to deliver solid financial performance for the balance of the year by executing on our new equipment backlog, accelerating our service portfolio growth and focusing on operational execution to offset macro headwinds. With that, Didi, please open the line for questions.

總體而言，我們對第一季度的業績感到鼓舞，並做好準備通過執行我們的新設備積壓、加速我們的服務組合增長並專注於運營執行來抵消宏觀逆風，從而在今年餘下時間實現穩健的財務業績。說到這裡，滴滴，請開通提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Jeffrey Sprague of Vertical Research Partners.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeffrey Sprague。

Just a couple of quick ones here from me. First, just on mods. Interestingly, Schindler pointed the soft mods this -- last week [and you and connay] are saying they're strong, always thought of a little bit more of a discretionary aspect to kind of mod work. So maybe you could just give a little bit of color on what's -- is there anything in particular driving the strength there? Your visibility beyond kind of the current orders you booked? And is there sort of a kind of pent-up demand to catch up on mods still from the delays we had back in COVID?

我這裡只是幾個快速的。首先，僅在模組上。有趣的是，Schindler 指出了軟模組這一點——上週 [還有你和康奈] 說它們很強大，總是考慮到模組工作的自由裁量權方面。所以也許你可以給一些顏色 - 有什麼特別推動那裡的力量嗎？您的知名度超出了您預訂的當前訂單的種類？是否存在某種被壓抑的需求來追趕我們在 COVID 中遇到的延誤？

Jeff, it's Judy. Listen, the mod business itself, I think you're going to see sustained and accelerating opportunities. It comes from macro 7 million of the 20 million units are 20 years or older in the world. It comes slightly from things that didn't happen during COVID, which you call pent-up demand, but it's really now coming from a realization that elevators are aging. Repairs, as you've seen, we've had a really strong repair book. So people have been putting off modernization, and now they are coming to those important decisions.

傑夫，是朱蒂。聽著，mod 業務本身，我認為你會看到持續和加速的機會。它來自 macro，全球 2000 萬台中有 700 萬台使用了 20 年或以上。它略微來自 COVID 期間沒有發生的事情，你稱之為被壓抑的需求，但它現在確實來自電梯老化的認識。維修，如您所見，我們有一本非常強大的維修手冊。所以人們一直在推遲現代化，現在他們正在做出那些重要的決定。

So at the macro level, globally, we saw a mod up in all 4 regions, strong order book this quarter, 29%, backlog up 13%. I think you can -- you're going to continue to see that, not just quarter-over-quarter, but year-over-year as the mod opportunity becomes larger. At a micro level, I'll just share a short story with you because part of mod is discretionary but part of it is a rational decision our customers are making. I'll give you an example, in North America, where we have almost 25-year-old, 2- to 6-story hydraulic units installed throughout the country, we have a circuit board there where the parts have become end-of-life and obsolete. So we went out to all of our customers because so many of these customers, they only have 1 unit, and they can't afford for it to shut down and not have access to an obsolete part. So for our customers, we went out with digital marketing campaign and just said, "listen, for a few hours, we'll preplan, preschedule this, turnkey, 1 fixed price, let us come and make sure you avoid any shutdowns and extend the life of your elevator." Response has been fantastic. So part of mod is aging, Part of it is opportunity creation, but you're going to see it continue to pick up over time.

因此，在宏觀層面上，在全球範圍內，我們看到所有 4 個地區都出現了增長，本季度訂單強勁，增長 29%，積壓增長 13%。我認為你可以 - 隨著 mod 機會變得更大，你將繼續看到這一點，不僅僅是季度環比，而是年環比。在微觀層面上，我將只與您分享一個小故事，因為模組的一部分是自由裁量的，但其中一部分是我們的客戶做出的理性決定。我給你舉個例子，在北美，我們在全國各地安裝了將近 25 年曆史的 2 到 6 層高的液壓裝置，我們在那裡有一塊電路板，那裡的零件已經-生活和過時。所以我們去找了所有的客戶，因為這些客戶中有很多，他們只有 1 個單元，他們無法承受它關閉和無法使用過時部件的後果。因此，對於我們的客戶，我們開展了數字營銷活動，只是說，“聽著，幾個小時，我們將預先計劃，預先安排，交鑰匙，1 個固定價格，讓我們來確保您避免任何停工並延長你電梯的壽命。”反響非常好。所以一部分 mod 正在老化，一部分是機會創造，但你會看到它隨著時間的推移繼續增長。

Great. And just on the growth in service units, great to see, and you're kind of checking the box there on strategic plan, it sounds like. I just missed, unless you didn't say it, the growth in service and maintenance units in China specifically and any other just kind of regional color that you might have on that?

偉大的。就服務單位的增長而言，很高興看到，你在戰略計劃中勾選了複選框，這聽起來像是。我只是想念，除非你沒有說，特別是在中國的服務和維護單位的增長，以及你可能有的任何其他區域色彩？

Yes. We had growth across the board. So all 4 regions grew. China had its seventh straight quarter. They grew high teens but seven straight quarter or mid or high teens growth. So Asia Pac and China up more significantly then the mature markets, which we would say is probably low single.

是的。我們實現了全面增長。所以所有 4 個區域都增長了。中國連續第七個季度。他們成長為十幾歲，但連續七個季度或中高青少年成長。因此，亞太地區和中國比成熟市場更顯著，我們可以說這可能是低單。

And our next question comes from Steve Tusa of Morgan Stanley (sic) JpMorgan

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利 (原文如此) JpMorgan 的 Steve Tusa

Yes, sorry. Yes, wrong Morgan. But maybe someday. Who knows? So, can you guys maybe just talk about how you're looking at the China market now and maybe just the sequential trends on earnings into the second half of the year? And anything moving around at all on you guys?

是的，對不起。是的，摩根錯了。但也許有一天。誰知道？那麼，你們能否談談你們現在如何看待中國市場，以及下半年收益的連續趨勢？你們身上有什麼動靜嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Steve, and we fully recognize JPMorgan. So let me be clear there. So Steve, I had the -- and I'm going to say honor of finally being on the ground again in China. So what I'm going to share is a little personal, having spent 10 days there earlier -- late last month, early this month. And just really getting a sense of the economy. And I can tell you, you can feel it in the 4 cities I was in and with our colleagues. It's in a state of recovery, and my view is primed for economic development, no matter whether it was a government official I met with or customers, we do believe the second half recovery will come and will come strongly. The government is being very supportive in their policies, whether it's mortgage rates or other things. So kind of where we started the year is what we're still seeing. We thought the market would be down 10%. We were down 3% in orders. So clear market share gain by Sally and the team in China. But the strength in the market in the first quarter, just so you know the segments, infrastructure and industrials were up, industrial buildings. There was weakness in resi and the commercial market. But we are still expecting the market recovery. And I'm feeling good about the health of our business. To be able to see the progress our team has made throughout the COVID years, whether it's in the automation and Industry 4.0 in our factories, the acceptance by our customers of our new product introductions, the relationships, I got to meet our agents and distributors, I'm very positive on a China recovery in the second half.

是的。謝謝，史蒂夫，我們完全認可摩根大通。所以讓我說清楚。所以史蒂夫，我有——我要說的是，我很榮幸終於再次來到中國。所以我要分享的是一些個人的東西，我早些時候在那里呆了 10 天——上個月末，本月初。並且真正了解經濟。我可以告訴你，你可以在我所在的 4 個城市以及與我們的同事一起感受到它。它處於復蘇狀態，我的觀點是為經濟發展做好準備，無論是我會見的政府官員還是客戶，我們都相信下半場復甦將會到來，而且會強勁到來。政府對他們的政策非常支持，無論是抵押貸款利率還是其他方面。所以我們今年開始的地方就是我們仍然看到的。我們認為市場將下跌 10%。我們的訂單下降了 3%。 Sally 和團隊在中國的市場份額明顯增加。但是第一季度市場的實力，你知道基礎設施和工業、工業建築等細分市場都在上漲。現貨和商業市場疲軟。但我們仍然期待市場復甦。我對我們業務的健康狀況感覺良好。為了能夠看到我們的團隊在整個 COVID 歲月中取得的進步，無論是在我們工廠的自動化和工業 4.0 方面，我們的客戶對我們的新產品介紹的接受度，關係，我必須會見我們的代理商和分銷商，我對下半年中國的複蘇非常樂觀。

Obviously, we want to see what the second quarter holds and when that inflection point is going to happen, but all signals look positive for China recovery second half and then obviously that continuing into the out years.

顯然，我們想看看第二季度會發生什麼，拐點何時會出現，但所有信號都對中國下半年的複蘇是積極的，而且顯然這種趨勢會持續到未來幾年。

And then just, does that change at all, I guess, I missed the first part of the call, but any of the market outlook, any of the market outlook you gave on the fourth quarter call, any of those change?

然後，我想，這有什麼變化嗎，我錯過了電話的第一部分，但是任何市場前景，你在第四季度電話會議上給出的任何市場前景，有任何變化嗎？

Yes. So as we shared last quarter, we said China would be down 10% of the market. Americas would be flattish. We're seeing Asia Pac continuing to grow more to high single digit, and we think that offsets maybe a little more negative now with EMEA down low to mid-single digits.

是的。因此，正如我們上個季度分享的那樣，我們說中國將下降 10% 的市場份額。美洲會很平坦。我們看到亞太地區繼續增長至高個位數，我們認為隨著 EMEA 下降至中個位數，抵消現在可能會更加負面。

Okay.

好的。

And Anurag I'll let you answer the second part.

Anurag 我會讓你回答第二部分。

Yes. Steve. Just on the sequential earnings into the second half of the year, so second half, we have to grow EPS up to about $0.25. $0.05 of that will come from tax because we do face a headwind of $0.05 in quarter 2 because we had a big benefit in quarter 2 of last year. That unwinds in the second half of the year. So that will give us $0.05. So the $0.20 that we have to grow is about $120 million operationally we are growing service at about in the first quarter $40 million. So that run rate kind of continues into the second half of the year at a mid-single-digit growth. So that's about $80 million. And the remaining $40 million will come from new equipment. In the second half, I mean, quarter 1 new equipment was kind of flattish. Quarter 2 is returning back to growth. In the second half, we expect mid-single-digit growth, about 5%, 6% on the new equipment side, with volume and some of the price increases that we booked last year will flow through to the bottom line, about $20-ish million from there. Commodity tailwind of $20 million in the second half. So you add that of new equipment should be up about $40 million. So that's our sequential road map, about $80 million from Service, $40 million from New Equipment.

是的。史蒂夫。就下半年的連續收益而言，下半年，我們必須將每股收益提高到約 0.25 美元。其中 0.05 美元將來自稅收，因為我們在第二季度確實面臨 0.05 美元的逆風，因為我們在去年第二季度獲得了巨大收益。這在今年下半年解除。所以這會給我們 0.05 美元。因此，我們必須增加的 0.20 美元在運營上約為 1.2 億美元，我們在第一季度增加的服務約為 4000 萬美元。因此，這種運行率將以中個位數的增長持續到今年下半年。所以這大約是8000萬美元。剩下的 4000 萬美元將來自新設備。在下半場，我的意思是，第一季度的新設備有點平淡。第二季度正在恢復增長。下半年，我們預計新設備方面將實現中個位數增長，約 5%、6%，我們去年預定的銷量和部分價格上漲將影響利潤，約 20 美元-從那裡開始有 100 萬。下半年商品順風 2000 萬美元。所以你加上新設備應該增加大約 4000 萬美元。這就是我們的順序路線圖，大約 8000 萬美元來自服務，4000 萬美元來自新設備。

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

So obviously, nice job on orders. The Americas was surprisingly strong and obviously some of your competitors have been highlighting weakness in the Americas. So maybe just talk about kind of what drove the growth and what you're seeing right now in multifamily and maybe commercial?

很明顯，訂單做得很好。美洲出人意料地強大，顯然你們的一些競爭對手一直在強調美洲的弱點。因此，也許只是談談推動增長的因素以及您現在在多戶家庭和商業領域看到的情況？

Yes. So kudos to Jim and the team, I mean, the Americas after a really strong '22 to come in up 15% this quarter and rolling 12 months being strong as well, over 18%, just really highlights, we've got a big backlog to work off in the Americas and our team knows it. Listen, we saw the Americas itself, the year is playing out as we thought it would. Nonresi is actually better this first quarter. Infrastructure and commercial were up and multifamily was down, coming off some really tough compares, if you think about where multifamily has been the past few years. I will tell you, Nigel, that we got a real tough compare in the Americas coming up in the second quarter because last year's second quarter, we were up 54% in the Americas. So we're going to do the best we can to try to match that, but it's going to be a tough compare.

是的。因此，對吉姆和團隊表示敬意，我的意思是，美洲在 22 年非常強勁之後本季度增長了 15%，並且連續 12 個月也很強勁，超過 18%，這真的很突出，我們有一個很大的積壓在美洲工作，我們的團隊知道這一點。聽著，我們看到了美洲本身，這一年正在按照我們的預期進行。 Nonresi 實際上在第一季度表現更好。基礎設施和商業在上升，而多戶家庭在下降，如果你想一想過去幾年多戶家庭的情況，就會出現一些非常艱難的比較。奈傑爾，我會告訴你，第二季度我們在美洲的比較非常艱難，因為去年第二季度，我們在美洲增長了 54%。所以我們將盡我們所能去匹配它，但這將是一個艱難的比較。

We still expect a flattish market through year-end. We think we're in a really good position. You saw the Montreal program we won, which was a major project in the first quarter, and that will take us a few years to perform on. But both the volume business and the major projects did really well in the Americas, both Latin and North America for the first quarter.

我們仍然預計到年底市場將持平。我們認為我們處於一個非常好的位置。你看到了我們贏得的蒙特利爾項目，這是第一季度的一個重大項目，我們需要幾年時間才能完成。但第一季度在拉丁美洲和北美的批量業務和主要項目都表現得非常好。

Great. That's great color. Judy. And in terms of China, your comments on China founded really constructive. Pricing down low single digits, but I think it was trending pretty flat through 2022. So just -- what gives you confidence that we're not going to see the bottom product pricing in China? And then when you talk about the inflection in the second half of the year, are we talking about a break back into positive year-to-year growth in orders? Or are we talking about getting that back in the second half?

偉大的。那是很棒的顏色。朱迪。就中國而言，你對中國的評論確實很有建設性。定價低個位數，但我認為到 2022 年它的趨勢相當平穩。那麼，是什麼讓你有信心我們不會在中國看到最低的產品定價？然後，當您談到下半年的拐點時，我們是在談論訂單量恢復同比正增長嗎？或者我們是在談論在下半場把它找回來嗎？

Let me take the pricing question. We are seeing rational pricing. I know we've shared that about 90% of the new equipment orders that happen in China now happen with the top 10 OEMs, and they're all being rational. And we get to see that, especially on public infrastructure bids. So not to say there's not a bid or to someone really wants because of density and they'll do something. But we're seeing rational pricing in China. It's always the most competitive there in pricing of anywhere in the world, and which means we've got to continue to drive our costs down. And that's where, so far, we've seen the material productivity far better in China than we have everywhere else in the world. Part of that's commodity's coming down, but part of that is through great supply chain management, negotiation and our engineering team continuing to take cost out with our manufacturing team.

讓我來談談定價問題。我們看到了合理的定價。我知道我們已經分享了在中國發生的大約 90% 的新設備訂單現在發生在前 10 大原始設備製造商那裡，他們都是理性的。我們會看到這一點，尤其是在公共基礎設施投標方面。所以並不是說沒有出價或有人因為密度而真正想要，他們會做某事。但我們在中國看到了合理的定價。在世界任何地方，它的定價始終是最具競爭力的，這意味著我們必須繼續降低成本。這就是到目前為止，我們看到中國的物質生產率遠高於世界其他任何地方。部分原因是商品價格下降，但部分原因是通過出色的供應鏈管理、談判以及我們的工程團隊繼續與我們的製造團隊一起降低成本。

So we're seeing rational. We don't anticipate that changing, but obviously, we're keeping an eye on that.

所以我們看到了理性。我們預計這種情況不會發生變化，但顯然，我們正在密切關注這一點。

Yes. And I mean, the 2 levers, as Judy mentioned, that we take a look at is definitely price/cost and the share of segment. So far, we're balancing it quite well. The market is disciplined, and we continue to look into that and make sure that, that is the toggle that we are playing against.

是的。我的意思是，正如朱迪提到的，我們要看的兩個槓桿絕對是價格/成本和細分市場的份額。到目前為止，我們已經很好地平衡了它。市場是有紀律的，我們將繼續調查並確保那是我們正在對抗的開關。

Now in terms of orders, if you look at the market, the market was down in the first quarter. We are guiding it to be down 5% or 10% for the year. So clearly, the market is going to pick up in the second half of the year off a low compare as well from last year. And even if the -- as you know, share growth in the second half of the year, you should see orders in China picking up in the second half of the year, but, obviously, we're going to continue executing the strategy that we are doing right now and feel pretty good about the China orders in the second half of the year.

現在就訂單而言，如果你看一下市場，第一季度市場是下跌的。我們指導它今年下降 5% 或 10%。很明顯，市場將在今年下半年從去年的低點回升。即使 - 正如你所知，今年下半年的份額增長，你應該會看到中國的訂單在今年下半年回升，但是，很明顯，我們將繼續執行這樣的戰略我們現在正在做，對下半年的中國訂單感覺很好。

Okay.

好的。

Yes. Nigel, the only thing I'll add is our relationships and our length of those relationships with our 2,200 agents and distributors continues to mature. And we do expect those to yield as we continue to go on for both our brands. We're going to continue to ensure that we have the best products. We introduced a new product in China, a new rope connected product in the first quarter that's picking up nicely in the market. So our team -- they've got sales coverage. We know where we need to be on price. We've got the right products and all that, we really expect to happen in the second half to show those results.

是的。奈傑爾，我唯一要補充的是我們的關係，以及我們與 2,200 家代理商和分銷商的關係持續不斷地成熟。我們確實希望隨著我們繼續為我們的兩個品牌繼續努力而取得成果。我們將繼續確保我們擁有最好的產品。我們在第一季度在中國推出了一種新產品，一種新的繩索連接產品，在市場上表現良好。所以我們的團隊——他們有銷售範圍。我們知道我們需要在價格上的位置。我們有合適的產品和所有這些，我們真的希望在下半年發生以顯示這些結果。

And our next question comes from Julian Mitchell of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安米切爾。

Just wanted to start with the EMEA market outlook. So yes, you and some of your peers sort of lowering the market outlook this year. Just wondered, any specific verticals or regions within Europe that's driving that on the new equipment side? How should we think about those EMEA orders playing out over the balance of this year? And I suppose the last time we had a sort of a soft construction market there for any prolonged period, we saw the bleed through into service pricing at some point. Just maybe remind us kind of your confidence this time or even with a softer new equipment market there, the service price should hold up?

只想從 EMEA 市場前景開始。所以是的，你和你的一些同行在某種程度上降低了今年的市場前景。只是想知道，歐洲有任何特定的垂直行業或地區在推動新設備方面的發展嗎？我們應該如何看待這些 EMEA 訂單在今年餘下的時間裡發揮作用？而且我想上一次我們在那裡有一個長期的軟建築市場時，我們看到了在某個時候滲透到服務定價中。這次也許可以提醒我們您的信心，或者即使那裡的新設備市場疲軟，服務價格也應該保持不變？

Thanks, Julian. So yes, we're saying EMEA now is going to be down low- to mid-single digit. Obviously, we're watching rates and impact on building permits and starts. But in the first quarter, our team in Southern Europe performed incredibly well. Spain, Italy, extremely resilient. Where we saw some of the weakness was really Germany and the U.K. and then the Middle East was up probably low single digits. So it's really a mix and we're going to continue to monitor and watch that. When we think back in time, I look at 2 key metrics. One is pricing and service pricing like-for-like -- It was last quarter, we were up 3.5 points, and our Europe business was up mid-single digits. So Bernardo and the team have been passing price through. We've had those inflationary clauses in, and the team's been passing service price through, which is really good to see because the majority of our European contracts do come due, service contracts come due in the first half of the year, with most in the first quarter.

謝謝，朱利安。所以是的，我們說 EMEA 現在將下降到中低個位數。顯然，我們正在關注利率及其對建築許可和開工的影響。但是在第一季度，我們在南歐的團隊表現非常出色。西班牙、意大利，極富彈性。我們看到一些疲軟的地方實際上是德國和英國，然後中東可能上漲了低個位數。所以這真的是一個混合體，我們將繼續監測和觀察它。當我們回顧過去時，我會查看 2 個關鍵指標。一個是定價和服務定價——上個季度，我們上漲了 3.5 個百分點，我們的歐洲業務增長了中等個位數。所以貝爾納多和團隊一直在傳遞價格。我們已經加入了那些通貨膨脹條款，並且團隊一直在通過服務價格，這真的很高興看到，因為我們的大部分歐洲合同都到期了，服務合同在今年上半年到期，其中大部分在第一季度。

The other part would be all the constructors from 15 years ago who moved into service and became independent service providers, we don't see that labor. If you look at even unemployment is at fairly low levels in Spain and in other locations in Western Europe. So we don't see those -- that available workforce starting up as independent service providers. And the other difference now is what we call Otis ONE, and the fact that when you have a connected elevator, it's not easy to start up as an independent right now or to grow your share. So I think all that combines to set us up to a very different Europe. But again, we think we're being responsible looking at the market at low to mid-single, potentially down for the year.

另一部分將是 15 年前開始服務並成為獨立服務提供商的所有施工人員，我們看不到這種勞動力。如果你看一下，西班牙和西歐其他地區的失業率都處於相當低的水平。所以我們沒有看到那些——可用的勞動力開始作為獨立的服務提供商。現在的另一個區別是我們所說的 Otis ONE，當你擁有一部互聯電梯時，現在要獨立創業或增加你的份額並不容易。所以我認為所有這些結合起來讓我們進入一個非常不同的歐洲。但同樣，我們認為我們有責任以中低單價看待市場，今年可能會下跌。

And then just my follow-up would be around the Slide 10. You've got that helpful EPS bridge. So just if I look at the operational portion within that, you highlight there kind of wage and material inflation and then mix and churn as headwinds that were not there on the bridge that you've given back in January for the year ahead. So just wondered if that's just some extra detail? Did you see something change in your outlook for those 2 items for 2023? And how we're thinking about those 2 items as you go through the year?

然後我的後續行動將圍繞幻燈片 10。你有那個有用的 EPS 橋。因此，如果我看一下其中的運營部分，你會強調工資和物質通脹，然後混合和攪動作為你在 1 月份為來年提供的橋樑上沒有的逆風。所以只是想知道這是否只是一些額外的細節？您是否看到您對 2023 年這兩個項目的展望有所改變？在你度過這一年的過程中，我們是如何考慮這兩項的？

Julian, thanks for the question. In February, when we gave guidance, we had a page on each of the segments, on New Equipment and Service. And at that point in time, we had highlighted mix and churn as one of the headwinds. And we just collapsed it into this chart right now. There's been no change in our thinking since the beginning of the year. When we talk about mix and churn, we essentially -- and the New Equipment side, the mix was coming from -- as you know, China is our most profitable New Equipment margin market. So there -- and the other markets are growing faster. So New Equipment side, that is the mix on -- from the regional perspective. And obviously, we've built a very good backlog. We won a lot of share, but it's a combination of volume and major projects and these major projects, though they come with a very good portfolio stickiness, they are low New Equipment margin. So on the mix side, I would say, on New Equipment, it's more region and projects similar to what we had called out in the last call. Nothing has changed from there.

朱利安，謝謝你的提問。 2 月，當我們提供指導時，我們在每個部分都有一個頁面，關於新設備和服務。在那個時候，我們強調混合和流失是不利因素之一。我們現在只是將它折疊到這張圖表中。自今年年初以來，我們的想法沒有改變。當我們談論混合和流失時，我們基本上——以及新設備方面，混合來自——如你所知，中國是我們最賺錢的新設備利潤率市場。所以那裡 - 其他市場增長更快。所以新設備方面，即從區域角度來看的組合。顯然，我們已經建立了非常好的積壓工作。我們贏得了很多份額，但它是數量和主要項目的結合，這些主要項目雖然具有非常好的投資組合粘性，但新設備利潤率很低。因此，在混合方面，我想說，在新設備上，它更多的區域和項目類似於我們在上次電話會議中所呼籲的。從那裡沒有任何改變。

In Service, it's the same thing, which you've seen in the past couple of years, China growing faster. And obviously, churn is more around the cancellation units, which come with a little bit higher margin. So nothing really changed over there. Same thing for labor and wage inflation, right? It's -- so far, our labor negotiations are trending really, really well. We thought it would be low to mid-single-digit. In most of the European markets it's playing out that way and same on the material. So if I kind of take a step back, if you look at price over gross cost and mix and churn, we should be about $75 million positive for the year. That would contribute to a half of the operating profit that you see in the bar, so price minus gross cost of material labor inflation and adjusting for mix and churn.

在服務方面，這是同樣的事情，你在過去幾年看到的，中國增長更快。顯然，流失更多的是取消單位，這些單位的利潤略高。所以那裡沒有真正改變。勞動力和工資通脹也是如此，對吧？到目前為止，我們的勞資談判趨勢非常非常好。我們認為它會是低到中個位數。在大多數歐洲市場，它在材料上都以同樣的方式發揮作用。因此，如果我退後一步，如果你看價格超過總成本以及混合和流失，我們今年應該有大約 7500 萬美元的收益。這將貢獻您在酒吧中看到的營業利潤的一半，因此價格減去材料勞動力通貨膨脹的總成本並針對混合和流失進行調整。

And our next question comes from Jack Ayers of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Jack Ayers。

This is Jack on for Gautam. I wanted to dig into service and apologies, I joined the call fairly late here. But if you could kind of just touch on the monetization orders up 29%. It seems extremely strong, which is encouraging. And then just piggybacking off that last comment, just the sort of the maintenance units up 4.2%, obviously, really strong again. Kind of just what's happening there this quarter from like a retention/conversion mix sort of churn perspective? Just any color there around Service would be really helpful.

這是高塔姆的傑克。我想深入了解服務和道歉，我在這裡很晚才加入電話會議。但是，如果你能稍微談談增長 29% 的貨幣化訂單。它似乎非常強大，這令人鼓舞。然後只是搭載最後一條評論，就是那種維護單位上漲了 4.2%，顯然，再次非常強勁。從保留/轉換混合的流失角度來看，本季度那裡發生了什麼？服務周圍的任何顏色都會非常有幫助。

Jack, yes, modernization, let me just reinforce what I said, which is, it's going to continue to be a contributor to our business, and the market itself is going to continue to grow, not just quarter-over-quarter, but the market itself will be growing year-over-year as more and more units age based on when they were put into service. We've got 7 million of the 20 million units are over 20 years old. So I think you can look for the modernization market to remain and actually become more attractive. And obviously, we're very focused on performing that in a more -- a way that allows us to approach customers with kits that gives us productivity and that gives them their modernization in a quicker time period. So you're going to see modernization be talked about more, but also take the best of what we've learned since spin in terms of our new equipment strategy and growing share there and being able to do things at scale, merging that with our service excellence and our productivity we've gained there. And when we put those 2 together and attack the mod market with a growing market, we think that's going to be a positive contributor for many -- for much time to come.

傑克，是的，現代化，讓我強調一下我所說的，那就是，它將繼續為我們的業務做出貢獻，市場本身將繼續增長，不僅僅是環比增長，而是隨著越來越多的設備根據投入使用的時間老化，市場本身將逐年增長。我們有 2000 萬個單元中的 700 萬個已超過 20 年。所以我認為你可以尋找現代化市場來保持並實際上變得更有吸引力。顯然，我們非常專注於以一種更多的方式來實現這一點——一種讓我們能夠通過套件來接近客戶的方式，這些套件可以提高我們的生產力，並讓他們在更快的時間內實現現代化。因此，您將看到更多關於現代化的討論，但也會充分利用自旋轉以來我們在新設備戰略和不斷增長的份額以及能夠大規模開展業務方面所學到的知識，將其與我們的合併卓越的服務和我們在那裡獲得的生產力。當我們將這兩者放在一起並以不斷增長的市場攻擊模組市場時，我們認為這將對許多人產生積極的貢獻——在未來的很長一段時間內。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question comes from Nick Housden of RBC.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Nick Housden。

I think you mentioned maintenance pricing was at about 3.5% like-for-like. I'm just wondering if that rate should accelerate as we move through the year just on the basis that you've been implementing the service escalation clauses in Q1 and maybe that 3.5% is a reflection the agreements that you had last year. So if you could provide some color on that, that would be helpful.

我想你提到維護定價大約是 3.5% 的同比。我只是想知道這一速度是否應該隨著我們在今年的發展而加速，僅僅是因為你一直在第一季度實施服務升級條款，也許 3.5% 反映了你去年達成的協議。所以如果你能提供一些顏色，那會很有幫助。

Yes. Nick. Go ahead. Go ahead.

是的。缺口。前進。前進。

Yes. Thanks for the question, Nick. Firstly, extremely encouraged by the way we started off in quarter 1 on the 3.5% like-to-like. As Judy mentioned, Europe is mid-single digits. It's probably one of the higher price increases we've seen in Europe for a while, and it's ticking because everyone else is kind of driving the price over there. If you move into Q2, obviously, more units get converted, come up for renegotiation as well. So we should see that kind of stepping up a little bit as we go there on the 3.5%. So overall, what we said in -- when we give the full year guide was that we expect it to be up 3.5%, 4%. Mix and churn would take about 200 to 250 basis points, so about 1.5% net. We -- as of now, where we stand, we feel pretty good about 150 basis points of pricing adjusting for mix insurance for the rest of the year.

是的。謝謝你的問題，尼克。首先，我們在第一季度以 3.5% 的點贊率開始的方式讓我們倍受鼓舞。正如 Judy 所提到的，歐洲是中等個位數。這可能是我們一段時間以來在歐洲看到的價格上漲幅度最大的情況之一，而且它還在滴答作響，因為其他所有人都在某種程度上推動了那裡的價格上漲。如果你進入第二季度，顯然會有更多的單位被轉換，也需要重新談判。因此，當我們達到 3.5% 時，我們應該會看到這種情況有所增加。所以總的來說，我們在給出全年指南時所說的是我們預計它會增長 3.5%、4%。混合和流失大約需要 200 到 250 個基點，因此淨值約為 1.5%。我們 - 截至目前，我們對今年剩餘時間混合保險的定價調整 150 個基點感到非常滿意。

And, Nick, in China, the margin drivers are less about price. They're really more about productivity, volume, density and Otis ONE and all of those are good contributors for us.

而且，尼克，在中國，利潤驅動因素與價格無關。他們實際上更多地是關於生產力、體積、密度和 Otis ONE，所有這些都是我們的重要貢獻者。

Great. That's very helpful. Then my second question, sticking with Service. Great to see that you're up to 4.2% unit growth. So that's been accelerating pretty much for 3 years at this point. You mentioned that the market is growing at about 5%, about 1 million units on a $20 million installed base. So if I look at that 4.2%, you could still argue that that's maybe slightly underperforming. Do you think that you can actually close that gap? Or is there may be a mix effect that means that you, as the largest OEM in terms of service units, should maybe be underperforming a bit?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後是我的第二個問題，堅持服務。很高興看到您的單位增長率高達 4.2%。所以這在這一點上已經加速了 3 年。你提到市場正在以大約 5% 的速度增長，在 2000 萬美元的安裝基礎上大約有 100 萬台。因此，如果我看一下 4.2%，你仍然可以說這可能表現不佳。你認為你真的可以縮小這個差距嗎？或者是否存在混合效應，這意味著您作為服務單位方面最大的 OEM，可能表現不佳？

I think we can and we should close that gap. That's the challenge we've given to our team, and that's why you see the much higher growth rates in Asia, especially China, for our service portfolio. Now it creates a mix, but we'll deal with that mix challenge as we get it. But yes, we can and should be closing that gap.

我認為我們可以而且應該縮小差距。這就是我們給團隊帶來的挑戰，這就是為什麼你會看到我們的服務組合在亞洲，尤其是中國的增長率要高得多。現在它創建了一個混音，但我們會在得到它時處理這個混音挑戰。但是，是的，我們可以而且應該縮小這一差距。

Yes. And just to add to that, right, I mean, not too long ago, we were growing at 1%. The team is kind of -- that was called for action, teams focused on it. The wheel just started churning. We were at 4.1%, up 4.2%, we should close the gap. And the gap is we won some good new equipment share. That will get converted -- that will come into the conversion cycle. Our conversion rates are going up, and we're going to keep looking at deploying IoT to ensure that our retention rates stay high. So it's using conversion as a lever, using retention as a lever to get us up to the mid-single-digit growth. And while doing that, we want to ensure that we also maintain the profitability for it, right? So at some point in time, this -- you will see from margins, it does come back to absolute profit growth, but that's where we want to take it to.

是的。除此之外，我的意思是，不久前，我們的增長率為 1%。團隊有點——被要求採取行動，團隊專注於此。車輪剛剛開始轉動。我們是 4.1%，上升了 4.2%，我們應該縮小差距。而差距是我們贏得了一些不錯的新設備份額。那將被轉換——將進入轉換週期。我們的轉化率正在上升，我們將繼續關注部署物聯網以確保我們的保留率保持高位。所以它使用轉換作為槓桿，使用保留作為槓桿讓我們達到中個位數增長。在這樣做的同時，我們要確保我們也能保持盈利能力，對吧？所以在某個時間點，你會從利潤率中看到，它確實回到了絕對利潤增長，但這就是我們想要實現的目標。

I would now like to turn the conference back to Judy Marks for closing remarks.

我現在想把會議轉回 Judy Marks 作閉幕詞。

Thank you, Didi, and thank you all for joining us. And let me also add a thanks to all of our colleagues for your continued excellent performance in quarter 1 and for serving our customers so well. Our solid first quarter results demonstrate the continued power of our business model and set us up well for the future. We will remain focused on executing throughout the remainder of the year in order to capitalize on our first quarter successes and continue to drive shareholder value. Thank you for joining us everyone. Stay safe and well.

謝謝滴滴，也謝謝大家的加入。我還要感謝我們所有的同事，感謝你們在第一季度的持續出色表現以及為我們的客戶提供的出色服務。我們穩健的第一季度業績證明了我們商業模式的持續力量，並為我們的未來做好了準備。我們將在今年餘下的時間裡繼續專注於執行，以利用我們第一季度的成功並繼續推動股東價值。感謝大家加入我們。保持安全和健康。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。