Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to open doors Fourth Quarter 2023 earnings conference call.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎您參加 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。

At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session to ask a question. During the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone to remove yourself from the queue, you may press star one one. Again. I would now like to hand the call over to Kimberly Newhouse, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。演講者演講結束後，將進行問答環節以提出問題。在會議期間，您需要在電話上按星一一將自己從隊列中刪除，您可以按星一一。再次。我現在想將電話轉交給投資者關係部門的 Kimberly Newhouse。請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon. Details of our results and additional management commentary are available in our earnings release and shareholder letter, which can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website at investor dot Opendoor.com. Please note that this call will be simultaneously webcast on the Investor Relations section of the Company's corporate website.

謝謝你，下午好。有關我們業績的詳細資訊和其他管理層評論，請參閱我們的收益發布和股東信函，您可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到投資者：Opendoor.com。請注意，本次電話會議將在公司網站的投資者關係部分同時進行網路直播。

Before we start, I would like to remind you that the following discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. All statements other than statements of historical fact are statements that could be deemed forward-looking including, but not limited to, statements regarding open doors, financial condition, anticipated financial performance, business strategy plans, market opportunity and expansion and management objectives for future operations. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees and undue reliance should not be placed on them. As such, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here. Additional information that could cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements can be found in the Risk Factors section of Opendoor most recent annual report on Form 10 K for the year ended December 31st, 2023, as updated by our periodic reports filed after that 10 K. Any forward-looking statements made on this conference call, including responses to your questions are based on management's reasonable current expectations and assumptions as of today, and Opendoor assumes no obligation to update or revise them, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise except as required by law, the following discussion contains references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. The company believes these non-GAAP financial measures are useful to investors as supplemental operational measurements to evaluate the Company's financial performance. A reconciliation of each of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP metrics, please see our website at investor dot Opendoor.com. I will now turn the call over to Carrie Wheeler, Chief Executive Officer of Opendoor.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，以下討論包含聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。除歷史事實陳述外的所有陳述均可被視為前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於有關開放、財務狀況、預期財務業績、業務戰略計劃、市場機會以及未來運營的擴張和管理目標的陳述。這些聲明既不是承諾也不是保證，不應過度依賴它們。因此，前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與此處討論的結果有重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述不同的其他資訊可以在 Opendoor 截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的年度 10 K 表格的最新年度報告的風險因素部分中找到，並由我們之後提交的定期報告進行更新10 K . 本次電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述，包括對您問題的答复，均基於管理層截至今日的合理當前預期和假設，Opendoor 不承擔更新或修改這些陳述的義務，無論是由於新信息的出現、未來事件或其他情況，除非法律要求，以下討論包含對某些非 GAAP 財務指標的引用。該公司相信，這些非公認會計準則財務指標對於投資者來說是有用的，可以作為評估公司財務表現的補充營運指標。這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對賬，請參閱我們的投資者網站 Opendoor.com。我現在將把電話轉給 Opendoor 執行長 Carrie Wheeler。

Good afternoon. Also on the call with me today is Chris Schwartz, Interim Chief Financial Officer, and David Fraser, President of capital and open exchange for Opendoor 2023.

午安.今天與我通話的還有臨時財務長 Chris Schwartz 和 Opendoor 2023 資本與公開交易所總裁 David Fraser。

With your focus, execution and results, despite a dynamic macro environment marked by the lowest level of home sales since 1995, the team focused on controlling what we could control, and we made meaningful progress. We grew our acquisition volumes sequentially every quarter and tripled our market share from Q1 to Q4. Our new book of inventory generated a contribution margin of 8.3% in the year, demonstrating the health of our more recent acquisitions. We also made improvements to our tooling, technology and processes to make our platform more efficient, which resulted in a year-over-year reduction of nearly 30% in adjusted operating expenses in Q4, excluding the reduction in our advertising spend with these improvements, we now enter 2024 with the foundation in place to rescale the business and build the future of sustained profitable growth. Last month, Mark opened doors 10 year anniversary since our founding, we've made it possible to sell your house with the tap of a button, something unthinkable a decade ago, we built the largest e-commerce platform for residential real estate and have served over 250,000 customers across 50 markets. And we're committed to building a product suite to become the place for every seller can start their home selling journey in a way that the traditional process cannot provide with simplicity and certainty.

憑藉您的專注、執行力和成果，儘管宏觀環境充滿活力，房屋銷售水平處於 1995 年以來的最低水平，但團隊專注於控制我們可以控制的事情，我們取得了有意義的進展。我們每季的收購量都在連續成長，市佔率從第一季到第四季增加了兩倍。我們的新庫存帳簿今年產生了 8.3% 的邊際貢獻率，證明了我們最近收購的健康狀況。我們還對工具、技術和流程進行了改進，使我們的平台更加高效，這使得第四季度調整後的營運費用同比減少了近 30%，其中不包括這些改進帶來的廣告支出的減少，現在進入2024 年，我們為調整業務規模和建立持續獲利成長的未來奠定了基礎。上個月，馬克開業了，我們成立十週年了，我們讓你只需按一下按鈕就可以賣掉你的房子，這在十年前是不可想像的，我們建立了最大的住宅房地產電子商務平台，並擁有為 50 個市場的 250,000 多名客戶提供服務。我們致力於打造一個產品套件，讓每個賣家都能以傳統流程無法提供的簡單性和確定性方式開始他們的房屋銷售之旅。

Looking into 2024, we're excited about our ability to reach and attract more sellers to our platform, namely to increase advertising spend, continued growth of our partnership channels and more attractive spread levels. Last year, we reduced our marketing spend by over 60% versus the prior year as elevated spreads made our marketing investments less efficient. Despite these reductions, we maintained our aided awareness, a testament to the effectiveness and efficiency of our creative advertising efforts in 2024, we plan to ramp our total marketing spend to widen the top of our funnel and reach more sellers, and we're spending more creatively last Sunday during the Super Bowl. We live stream accounts family, getting an open-door cash offer on their home and Atlanta during halftime proving just how easy and quick it is to sell to us acquisition from our partnership channels, which includes online real estate platforms, homebuilders and agents continue to increase in the fourth quarter, up 35% versus Q3 and up over 140% since Q1. These partnerships have effectively positioned us as the branded cash offer for residential real estate and are a true win-win and offering enhanced the design experience of our partners' platforms to their customers and also provides us with a source of acquisitions and customers and they're attractive to expand. We expect volumes from this channel to continue to grow on an absolute basis in 2024.

展望 2024 年，我們對能夠接觸並吸引更多賣家加入我們的平台感到興奮，即增加廣告支出、我們的合作夥伴管道的持續增長以及更具吸引力的價差水平。去年，我們的行銷支出比前一年減少了 60% 以上，因為價差上升降低了我們的行銷投資效率。儘管減少了這些支出，我們仍然保持了輔助意識，這證明了我們在2024 年創意廣告工作的有效性和效率，我們計劃增加總營銷支出，以擴大我們的漏斗頂部並覆蓋更多賣家，並且我們正在支出上週日超級盃期間更有創意。我們直播帳戶家庭，在中場休息期間獲得他們的房屋和亞特蘭大的開放現金報價，證明透過我們的合作夥伴管道（包括線上房地產平台、房屋建築商和代理商）向我們出售收購是多麼容易和快捷第四季成長，較第三季成長35%，較第一季成長超過140%。這些合作夥伴關係有效地將我們定位為住宅房地產的品牌現金報價，是真正的雙贏，為他們的客戶提供了增強的合作夥伴平台的設計體驗，也為我們提供了收購和客戶的來源，他們’重新具有擴張吸引力。我們預計該管道的交易量將在 2024 年繼續成長。

Finally, as a reminder, our spreads are important lever in managing seller conversion and mitigating risk on our platform meaningfully reduced spreads during 2023, which resulted in improved conversion and acquisition volumes throughout the year.

最後，提醒一下，我們的價差是管理賣家轉換和降低平台風險的重要槓桿，在 2023 年大幅降低了價差，從而提高了全年的轉換和收購量。

Looking ahead, based on where we are at today, we expect to see an increase in contract volume late in Q1, which would translate to sequential acquisition volume growth in Q2.

展望未來，根據我們今天的情況，我們預計第一季末的合約量將有所增加，這將轉化為第二季收購量的環比成長。

Kristie will speak to our outlook next, but I want to quickly address our goal of returning to positive adjusted net income. We have strong tailwinds at our back, but we're still facing ongoing macro uncertainty. Mortgage rates remain volatile, whereas in the lessons we've learned in recent years and taking a prudent approach to balancing growth and profitability while also operating within our risk management framework, we expect to make significant progress in both scaling acquisition and resale volumes and meaningfully reducing our losses this year. However, we don't anticipate reaching positive adjusted net income for a full quarter in 2024. We are focused on driving sustainable growth, and our entire business is organized around durably.

克里斯蒂接下來將談論我們的前景，但我想快速解決我們恢復正調整淨利潤的目標。我們有強大的推動力，但我們仍然面臨持續的宏觀不確定性。抵押貸款利率仍然波動，而根據我們近年來吸取的經驗教訓，並採取審慎的方法來平衡增長和盈利能力，同時也在我們的風險管理框架內運作，我們預計將在擴大收購和轉售數量方面取得重大進展，並取得有意義的進展。減少今年的損失。然而，我們預計 2024 年整個季度的調整後淨利潤不會達到正值。我們專注於推動永續成長，我們的整個業務都是圍繞著永續發展的。

Getting back to positive A&I. I am proud of what our teams accomplished in the last year. We've emerge smarter, leaner and energized, and we are building a platform that over the long term has the potential to transform the way millions, sell and buy real estate. Today, we stand alone in not only what we offer, but also the scale at which we are able to do so and we're just getting started.

回到積極的 A&I。我為我們團隊去年的成就感到自豪。我們變得更加聰明、更加精簡和充滿活力，我們正在建立一個平台，從長遠來看，該平台有潛力改變數百萬人買賣房地產的方式。今天，我們不僅在我們提供的產品上獨樹一幟，而且在我們能夠提供的規模上也獨樹一幟，而且我們才剛剛開始。

Christie will now review our financial results and guidance.

科視現在將審查我們的財務業績和指導。

Thank you, Carrie. Our fourth quarter results came in above the high end of our outlook across the board as we continue to increase acquisition volumes while driving margin and cost improvements.

謝謝你，嘉莉。我們第四季的業績全面高於我們預期的上限，因為我們繼續增加收購量，同時推動利潤率和成本改善。

As we enter 2024, we remain committed to rescaling our business, delivering healthy contribution margins and operating with disciplined cost management, all while providing a best-in-class customer experience. We delivered $870 million of revenue in the fourth quarter above the high end of our guidance range. We continued to make progress on selling through our old book of inventory and had less than 75 of these homes non resale contract as of year end. For the full year, we achieved $6.9 billion of revenue. As a reminder, we intentionally slowed our home acquisitions beginning in the second half of 2022, prioritizing risk management and inventory health. This resulted in lower resale volumes in 2023 versus the prior year. As Carrie mentioned, we reduced our spreads this year as we saw signs of market stabilization resulting in increasing acquisitions sequentially each quarter, we purchased 3,683 homes in the fourth quarter, up 17% from the third quarter and ahead of our prior expectations of approximately 1,000 homes per month. We continued to generate positive contribution profit in the fourth quarter, delivering contribution margin of 3.4% ahead of the high end of our implied guidance range. While ahead of our expectations, contribution margin declined sequentially for two reasons. First, to maintain our clearance target we implemented home level price drops last quarter in response to the amplified seasonal decline in market level sell-through rates. Second, sales from the tail homes of our old book continued to be a drag on overall performance. For the full year, contribution margin was negative 3.7%, driven by sales from our old book of inventory. Notably, as Carrie mentioned, the new book of homes generated a contribution margin of 8.3% in 2023, demonstrating the health of the more recent acquisition cohorts. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $69 million in the fourth quarter ahead of the high end of our guidance range. We ended 2023 with adjusted EBITDA loss of $627 million versus a loss of $168 million in 2022. Adjusted operating expenses totaled $99 million for the quarter, up from $92 million in Q3 and down from $144 million in Q4 2022. The sequential increase was expected as we continued to rebuild inventory in the fourth quarter for the full year, adjusted operating expenses were $369 million, down 47% from $693 million in 2022, which reflects the progress we've made in reducing our cost structure.

進入 2024 年，我們仍然致力於重新調整業務規模，提供健康的邊際貢獻，並透過嚴格的成本管理進行運營，同時提供一流的客戶體驗。我們在第四季度實現了 8.7 億美元的收入，高於我們的指導範圍的上限。我們繼續透過舊庫存簿在銷售方面取得進展，截至年底，這些房屋的非轉售合約不足 75 套。全年我們實現了 69 億美元的收入。提醒一下，我們從 2022 年下半年開始有意放慢了購屋速度，優先考慮風險管理和庫存健康狀況。這導致 2023 年的轉售量低於前一年。正如Carrie 所提到的，我們今年減少了利差，因為我們看到市場穩定的跡象，導致每個季度的收購量連續增加，我們在第四季度購買了3,683 套房屋，比第三季度增長17% ，超出了我們之前約1,000 套的預期每月的房屋。我們在第四季度繼續產生積極的貢獻利潤，貢獻利潤率達到 3.4%，超出了我們隱含指導範圍的上限。雖然超出了我們的預期，但貢獻率季減有兩個原因。首先，為了維持我們的清倉目標，我們在上個季度實施了房屋價格下降，以應對市場銷售率季節性下降的加劇。其次，我們舊書尾部房屋的銷售持續拖累整體業績。全年貢獻邊際為負 3.7%，主要受舊庫存銷售的推動。值得注意的是，正如 Carrie 所提到的，新的房屋帳目在 2023 年產生了 8.3% 的邊際貢獻，這表明了最近收購群體的健康狀況。第四季調整後 EBITDA 損失為 6,900 萬美元，高於我們指引範圍的上限。截至 2023 年，我們的調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 6.27 億美元，而 2022 年為虧損 1.68 億美元。本季調整後營運費用總計 9,900 萬美元，高於第三季的 9,200 萬美元，低於 2022 年第四季的 1.44 億美元。由於我們在第四季度繼續重建全年庫存，環比增長是預期的，調整後的營運費用為3.69 億美元，比2022 年的6.93 億美元下降47%，這反映了我們在減少成本結構方面取得的進展。

Turning to our balance sheet, shareholders' equity decreased by $53 million in the fourth quarter. We ended the year with $1.3 billion in total capital, which includes $1.1 billion in unrestricted cash and marketable securities and $161 million of equity invested in homes and related assets, net of inventory valuation adjustments. We also had $8.1 billion in nonrecourse asset-backed borrowing capacity composed of $3.8 billion of senior revolving credit facilities and $4.3 billion of senior and mezzanine term debt facilities, of which total committed borrowing capacity was $2.8 billion.

轉向我們的資產負債表，第四季股東權益減少了 5,300 萬美元。截至年底，我們的總資本為 13 億美元，其中包括 11 億美元的非限制性現金和有價證券，以及投資於房屋和相關資產的 1.61 億美元的股本（扣除庫存估值調整後）。我們還擁有 81 億美元的無追索權資產支持借款能力，其中包括 38 億美元的高級循環信貸安排和 43 億美元的高級和夾層定期債務安排，其中總承諾借款能力為 28 億美元。

Looking ahead to 2024, we will continue to operate with focus and execution to drive results. We expect our Q1 revenue to be between $1.05 billion and $1.1 billion contribution profit between $40million to $50 million, which implies a contribution margin of 3.8% to 4.5% and adjusted EBITDA loss between $80million to $70 million. We expect adjusted operating expenses to be approximately $120 million, a sequential step-up as we re-ramp marketing and rebuild inventory levels. Additionally, we expect first quarter home purchases to be approximately flat from Q4 and up over 100% year over year. We expect home acquisitions will increase sequentially in line with typical seasonality into Q2 as we enter the spring selling season in earnest. As we begin 2024, we are focused on rescaling our business in a sustainable fashion. We have the benefit of a book of inventory that is generating healthy margins. And the steps we took last year position us well to accelerate volumes throughout the year with an improved cost structure and a line of sight to achieving our annual contribution margin target range of 5% to 7%.

展望2024年，我們將繼續以專注和執行力運營，以取得成果。我們預計第一季營收將在10.5 億美元至11 億美元之間，貢獻利潤在4,000 萬美元至5,000 萬美元之間，這意味著貢獻利潤率在3.8% 至4.5% 之間，調整後的EBITDA損失在8000 萬美元至7000 萬美元之間。我們預計調整後的營運費用約為 1.2 億美元，隨著我們重新加大行銷力度和重建庫存水平，這一數字將連續上升。此外，我們預計第一季房屋購買量將與第四季基本持平，但年增超過 100%。我們預計，隨著我們認真進入春季銷售季節，房屋收購量將按照第二季度的典型季節性依次增加。2024 年伊始，我們致力於以永續的方式重新調整我們的業務規模。我們受益於庫存簿可以產生可觀的利潤。我們去年採取的措施使我們能夠透過改善成本結構和實現 5% 至 7% 的年度邊際貢獻目標範圍來加速全年銷售。

I'd now like to turn the call over to the operator to open up the line for questions.

我現在想將電話轉給接線員以開通提問線路。

Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. If you have not already to remove yourself from the queue, you may press star one one. Again, please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. We ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Our first question comes from the line of David Lee of JPMorgan. Your question, please.

謝謝。作為提問提醒，您需要在電話上按星號一一。如果您尚未將自己從佇列中刪除，您可以按星號一一。再次，請大家耐心等待，我們正在整理問答名單。我們要求您只提出一個問題和一項後續行動。我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的大衛李（David Lee）。請提出你的問題。

Great. Thanks for taking the question. I guess the first one on reaching adjusted net income profit pressure. I appreciate the color on the timing but just curious to hear like what needs to happen to reach this target. Has it's just a matter of and a ramp in your acquisition volume or do you need to key industry transactions.

偉大的。感謝您提出問題。我猜第一個是關於達到調整後淨利壓力。我很欣賞時間上的顏色，但只是想聽聽如何才能達到這個目標。這只是您的收購量增加的問題還是您需要關鍵行業交易。

We'll cover two Southern metals and the day out. It's Gary. I'll take that on a couple of things. One is we're highly focused on rescaling the business, but we're intent on doing it in a sustainable way. So right now, what we're managing to is what I'd call a macro neutral environment. We're now willing to lean into spreads were not willing to lean in to access marketing to drive growth at the expense of margin. Certainly, if there are macro tailwinds, say second half of this year, we are well-positioned to take advantage of those. But our Our objective is to meaningfully ramp our acquisitions this year and to do so within our Canada contribution margin target range. We've talked about all of which will substantially reduce our CNI losses year on year. So this is about wind. No.

我們將介紹兩種南方金屬以及當天的情況。是加里。我會在幾件事上考慮這一點。一是我們高度關注業務規模的調整，但我們致力於以可持續的方式實現這一目標。所以現在，我們正在努力實現我所說的宏觀中性環境。我們現在願意依靠利差，不願意依靠行銷來以犧牲利潤為代價來推動成長。當然，如果出現宏觀順風，例如今年下半年，我們就可以充分利用這些利多。但我們的目標是今年有意義地增加收購，並在我們的加拿大邊際貢獻目標範圍內做到這一點。我們已經討論過所有這些都將大幅減少我們的 CNI 虧損。所以這是關於風的。不。

And I guess as a follow-up on the Glory Leisure spread right now, I guess relative to exiting 2023 and I guess early part of 2023 and down this breadth and the federal level to be at the higher end of your contribution margin target. Is that the right way to think about it?

我想，作為目前 Glory Leisure 傳播的後續行動，我想相對於 2023 年退出，我想 2023 年初以及這個廣度和聯邦層面將達到邊際貢獻率目標的較高端。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Yes, when we made substantial improvement last year in our cost structure, much of which we fed back into durably, reducing spreads so the combination of cost structure improvements and home price stabilization allowed us to take those down throughout the year. And we like where they are today, which is why we're ramping advertising spend by 50% in Q1 and why we are leaning into acquisition contract growth.

是的，當我們去年在成本結構方面取得了實質性改進時，我們對其中大部分進行了持久反饋，減少了利差，因此成本結構改進和房價穩定的結合使我們能夠在全年中降低成本結構。我們喜歡他們今天的狀況，這就是為什麼我們在第一季將廣告支出增加了 50%，也是我們傾向於收購合約成長的原因。

Understand. Thank you,

理解。謝謝你，

Welcome.

歡迎。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Benjamin Black of Deutsche Bank. Your question, please, Benjie.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的班傑明‧布萊克。你的問題，班傑。

Hi, this is Jeff on for Ben. Thank you for taking my questions. Because I noticed that you exited three markets on this quarter. What are you seeing there that led to and the decision to exit this market and change your strategy around market expansion going forward?

大家好，我是本的傑夫。感謝您回答我的問題。因為我注意到您在本季退出了三個市場。您看到了什麼導致您決定退出這個市場並改變您未來市場擴張的策略？

Yes, happy to take that. It's certainly not an indication of our forward plans. These were three small markets that represented less than 1% of our volumes. And really it's more just a cost structure question, given the size of those markets and where they're physically located, they were approximate they weren't next to one of our other markets. And so it was more just a cost inefficiency question.

是的，很高興接受。這當然不代表我們的未來計畫。這三個小市場僅占我們銷量的不到 1%。事實上，這更只是一個成本結構問題，考慮到這些市場的規模以及它們的實際位置，它們大約不毗鄰我們的其他市場之一。因此，這更只是一個成本效率低的問題。

Yes, I guess just as a follow-up then. So as you think about expanding your buybacks in a given region, is there sort of a contribution margin impact of doing that? Or is it simply a matter of adding the capability to kind of expand your and your addressable market and therefore, you'll see similar contribution margins to other other homes in a similar region or where does that come at the expense of some gross margin constitutes.

是的，我想只是作為後續行動。因此，當您考慮在特定地區擴大回購規模時，這樣做是否會對邊際貢獻產生影響？或者這只是增加擴展您和您的潛在市場的能力的問題，因此，您會看到與類似地區的其他其他房屋類似的邊際貢獻，或者這是以犧牲一些毛利率為代價的。

And our goal in expanding buy box is more about pricing accuracy. And so we expand our buy box as our pricing system improves, and we believe we can price accurately so that we can deliver the same contribution margin across the expanded buybacks.

我們擴大黃金購物車的目標更多的是關於定價的準確性。因此，隨著我們的定價系統的改進，我們擴大了我們的購買箱，我們相信我們可以準確地定價，以便我們可以在擴大的回購中提供相同的邊際貢獻。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nick Jones of JMP Securities. Your line is open.

是的，謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 JMP 證券公司的 Nick Jones。您的線路已開通。

Thanks for taking the questions on. So the new book on Zilver contribution margin of 8.3%, very solid kind of targeting 5% to 7%. I guess what gets you comfortable maybe increasing that range gone five to seven and maybe being north of eight over time?

感謝您提出問題。因此，新書中關於 Zilver 的貢獻率為 8.3%，非常可靠的目標是 5% 到 7%。我想是什麼讓你感到舒服，也許隨著時間的推移，將範圍增加到五到七，也許超過八？

I guess just some some clarity as to why not expanding that range yet?

我想只是澄清了為什麼還不擴大這個範圍？

Hey, Nick, it's Gary. I'd say at a very high level, last year's 8.3% GM on the new book, which was great was about long Lasher spreads. And we realize that 8.3% I mean this year, given where we sit our spread, that's why we're reaffirming our 5% to 7% contribution margin target. So again, we're balancing that interplay of growth margin risks, and we reduced the spreads to a level where we want to deliver within that 5% to 7% for the year.

嘿，尼克，我是加里。我想說的是，在一個非常高的水平上，去年新書的 GM 為 8.3%，這很棒，因為 Lasher 的利差很長。我們意識到，我指的是今年的 8.3%，考慮到我們的利差，這就是為什麼我們重申 5% 至 7% 的邊際貢獻率目標。因此，我們再次平衡成長利潤率風險的相互作用，並將利差降低到我們希望今年達到 5% 至 7% 以內的水平。

Got it. Helpful. And then on the homes that are kind of lifted over 100,000 a day, you took that down to 18% versus I think it was 21% of markets, those homes, whereas you're kind of outperforming the market given the model over time, like how what kind of outperformance can we expect in terms of on the homes you're selecting and how long it's on the market versus kind of the average in those markets? I guess ultimately, where does that kind of percentage go of overtime and maybe what's kind of the standard hold time today is the market's kind of neutral as we ended 2020?

知道了。有幫助。然後，對於每天銷量超過 100,000 套的房屋，您將其降低至 18%，而我認為這些房屋的市場比例為 21%，而隨著時間的推移，鑑於該模型，您的表現有點優於市場，例如，就您選擇的房屋以及其在市場上的停留時間而言，與這些市場的平均水平相比，我們可以期待什麼樣的優異表現？我想最終，加班費的百分比會去哪裡？也許今天的標準保留時間是多少，在 2020 年結束時市場是中性的？

Yes. So we are I think from a business portfolio management perspective, I really think about from the homes that we are shorter and hold periods of early days on market, we want to be slower and then as homes sit on our balance sheet longer, we want them to be selling faster than market. So our goal is to outperform market. And at on that older cohort of homes. We think that's appropriate portfolio management and sort of disciplined risk management. But there's not a specific target to your specific question of where we're trying to get to X number of it's much more about for homes that are 90 to 120 days on market. We want to be outperforming market.

是的。因此，我認為，從業務投資組合管理的角度來看，我確實從房屋角度考慮，我們的房屋時間較短，並且持有市場早期的時間，我們希望放慢速度，然後隨著房屋在資產負債表上的停留時間更長，我們希望他們的銷售速度快於市場。所以我們的目標是跑贏大盤。在那群老房子裡。我們認為這是適當的投資組合管理和嚴格的風險管理。但對於您的具體問題，我們並沒有具體的目標，即我們試圖在哪裡達到 X 數量，更多的是針對上市時間為 90 至 120 天的房屋。我們希望跑贏大盤。

Yes. Thank you.

是的。謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Hugo Reunion of Citi. Your question, please?

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Hugo Reunion。請問你的問題？

Yes, hi, guys. Yes, Max on free golf. So wondering if we could if you could walk us through how you think about the pace of acquisitions through the rest of the year, given your market neutral comment on the macro comm, how your expectations are for home acquisitions and anything you're seeing kind of as we head into the spring season.

是的，嗨，夥計們。是的，麥克斯正在打免費高爾夫。因此，考慮到您對宏觀經濟的市場中立評論、您對房屋收購的期望以及您所看到的任何事情，我們想知道您是否可以向我們介紹您如何看待今年剩餘時間的收購步伐當我們進入春季時。

So at a high level, you should see a meaningful increase in acquisitions 2024 over 2023. I'll repeat some of our guidance, which was Q1 being up 100% year on year. So we're going to see good acquisition growth in the first quarter what we're seeing right now as we'd expect to see for this time of year.

因此，從總體上看，您應該會看到 2024 年的收購量將比 2023 年大幅增加。我將重複我們的一些指導意見，即第一季同比增長 100%。因此，我們將在第一季看到良好的收購成長，就像我們現在所看到的那樣，正如我們預計每年這個時候會看到的那樣。

Just given seasonality, people kind of getting back and just thinking about selling post Super Bowl is we're seeing a ramp in contracts month to month, so February, higher than January, March and February. And we're going to see those contracts turn into closes in Q2, which is why we indicated like you should expect to see from us sequential acquisition growth Q2 over Q1 for that. That's what I can tell you in terms of acquisition pacing for the first half of the year.

考慮到季節性，人們會回過頭來考慮在超級盃後出售，我們看到合約逐月增加，所以二月的合約量高於一月、三月和二月。我們將看到這些合約在第二季完成，這就是為什麼我們表示您應該期望從我們那裡看到第二季收購比第一季連續成長。這就是我可以告訴你的上半年收購節奏。

Okay. Great. And then on a follow-up, just is any updates on the 3P model as we look into 2024? And are you more focused kind of on the corporates.

好的。偉大的。接下來，我們展望 2024 年，3P 模型是否有任何更新？您是否更關注企業？

I'd say we're focused on both, but I would say our plan to get back to positive cash flow is all about the current core business today or sell direct model that gets us back there. Our cost structure and our balance sheet allow us to deliver on that marketplace for us, certainly important long term strategic one here and do it right? We're about connecting buyers and sellers, but we're doing in a single market. We've said consistently, we want to make sure that we focus on having great product market fit before we scale it. I would say that this has been a tough year for experimentation against a low market supply like record low market supply. That's challenging, but that short term long term, we remain committed to continue to evolve the marketplace product.

我想說，我們都專注於這兩方面，但我想說，我們恢復正現金流的計劃全部與當前的核心業務有關，或者銷售直接模式，使我們回到正值。我們的成本結構和資產負債表使我們能夠為我們提供這個市場，這當然是重要的長期策略之一，並且做得對嗎？我們致力於連接買家和賣家，但我們是在單一市場中進行的。我們一直說，我們希望確保在擴大規模之前專注於擁有適合市場的產品。我想說，今年對於針對低市場供應（例如創紀錄的低市場供應）進行實驗來說是艱難的一年。這具有挑戰性，但從短期長期來看，我們仍然致力於繼續發展市場產品。

Okay, great. And just welcome.

好的，太好了。歡迎。

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Curtis Nagle of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

謝謝。下一個問題來自美國銀行的柯蒂斯·內格爾。請繼續。

Curtis conservative.

柯蒂斯保守。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Let's see. I guess first of all would be in terms of the I think there's a $20 million delta on the operating expenses in 4Q positive. That is what accounted for that? And I guess how should we think about quarterly operating adjusted expenses 24, assuming that should be maybe something a little bit above 100 mill given the higher marketing costs or what's the right way to think about?

讓我們來看看。我想首先是我認為第四季的營運支出有 2000 萬美元的增量。那是什麼原因導致的呢？我想我們應該如何考慮季度營運調整費用 24，假設考慮到較高的行銷成本，該費用可能會略高於 100 工廠，或者什麼是正確的思考方式？

Hey, Curtis, it's Christine. Thank you for the question. And so our the performance of 99 versus our guidance of 120 is a reflection of us continuing to make meaningful progress throughout the P & L. We saw continued strong execution from our teams in the fourth quarter, which allowed us to smooth the timing of some hiring from 4Q to 1Q as we're ramping up. And we continued to realize some cost saving initiatives we guided in Q1 to $120 million, and that just to unpack that change, it's about roughly half is marketing and advertising. And the other half is increasing our operations. And we expect that increase from Q4 to Q1 to be the biggest bump for the year.

嘿，柯蒂斯，我是克莉絲汀。感謝你的提問。因此，我們99 的表現與120 的指引反映了我們在整個損益表中繼續取得有意義的進展。我們看到我們的團隊在第四季度繼續保持強勁的執行力，這使我們能夠順利完成一些任務的時間安排隨著我們的增加，從第四季到第一季的招募。我們繼續實現了一些成本節約計劃，我們在第一季指導了 1.2 億美元，而為了展開這一變化，大約一半是行銷和廣告。另一半是增加我們的業務。我們預計第四季到第一季的增幅將是今年最大的增幅。

So. Okay, that's very helpful. But maybe staying on the marketing front. So you guys obviously made a big push with the Super Bowl this year, or I guess is that indicative of sort of plans for brand margin for the rest of the year?

所以。好的，這非常有幫助。但也許仍停留在行銷方面。所以你們今年顯然大力推動了超級碗，或者我想這是否表明了今年剩餘時間的品牌利潤計劃？

Like it can't be like a one and done, right. If that's really kind of a first shot and would love to hear like any is there any metrics you have in terms of a lift in traffic or perhaps people inquiring about it offers post-harvest.

就像它不可能像一個完成一樣，對吧。如果這真的是第一次嘗試，並且很想聽聽您是否有任何關於流量提升的指標，或者也許人們詢問它是否提供了收穫後的信息。

In terms of Jeremy, I think you're are you asking your marketing mix question for you?

就傑里米而言，我想您是在問您的行銷組合問題嗎？

I just quoted. The question was right. So you did your first your Super Bowl ad, right? That's a very splashy form of brand marketing. So is that indicative of a big ramp up right as we've kind of been talking about in brand marketing and just kind of how to think about that for the rest of the year. And then again, just to note to you what you see in terms of a response in the first the first week from that end?

我剛才引用了。這個問題是對的。所以你做了你的第一個超級盃廣告，對吧？這是一種非常引人注目的品牌行銷形式。這是否表明我們在品牌行銷方面一直在談論，以及​​如何在今年餘下的時間裡思考這一點，這是否表明了一個巨大的成長。再說一遍，只是想向您指出您在第一週的反應方面看到了什麼？

Yes. I mean, all credit to our creative marketing team, we actually did buy a Super Bowl ad. To be clear, we said this is going to have cost discipline, as you know, as we were not trying to compare it also because we are yes, we were lighter with the different. We want to be part of the Super Bowl, you know, free run and part of the conversation. And I think our team did a good job of putting us in that room. And we did a lot of stuff in and around Super Bowl before the game. And then we had a live out during of time in Atlanta. So I'd say it's too early to tell the impact of that. We definitely saw a big pickup in traffic and awareness in Atlanta specifically, I think we know time will tell in terms of what the what the impact of that is, say at a higher level.

是的。我的意思是，這一切都歸功於我們的創意行銷團隊，我們實際上購買了超級盃廣告。需要明確的是，我們說這將有成本紀律，正如你所知，因為我們並沒有試圖比較它，因為我們是的，我們對不同的東西更輕。我們希望成為超級盃的一部分，你知道，自由奔跑和對話的一部分。我認為我們的團隊在把我們安排在那個房間方面做得很好。我們在超級盃賽前和賽前做了很多事情。然後我們在亞特蘭大進行了一次現場直播。所以我想說現在判斷其影響還為時過早。我們確實看到了亞特蘭大的交通量和意識的大幅上升，特別是，我認為我們知道時間會告訴我們其影響是什麼，比如說在更高的層面上。

Do you think about how we think about marketing spend in the last year, we took down spend substantially. That was in response to where spreads were because some spend became less efficient. And you think about this year, we have really leaned into some of our more efficient marketing channels, branding. One receivable thing is that the evidence is one of those. But what we found is that brand lift all boats for us. So we increased our brand spend, and we're finding that increases conversion across all avenues. And actually, even though we had lower spend last year, we actually maintain our brand awareness is something we're really proud of and partnerships will continue to lean into because they're very efficient from a customer acquisition cost perspective and then there's paid. So you should expect to see more creative from as you start to see more brand, but we're going to do with them, you know, making sure we manage the overall envelope figure for that research, virtual network functions.

您是否想過我們如何看待去年的行銷支出，我們大幅削減了支出。這是對利差的回應，因為一些支出的效率降低了。你想想今年，我們確實傾向於一些更有效的行銷管道和品牌。一件值得接受的事情是，證據就是其中之一。但我們發現，品牌為我們帶來了一切。因此，我們增加了品牌支出，我們發現這增加了所有管道的轉換率。事實上，儘管我們去年的支出較低，但我們實際上保持了我們的品牌知名度，這是我們真正感到自豪的事情，並且合作夥伴關係將繼續傾斜，因為從客戶獲取成本的角度來看，它們非常有效，然後是付費的。因此，當您開始看到更多品牌時，您應該期望看到更多創意，但我們將利用它們，您知道，確保我們管理該研究的整體信封數字，虛擬網路功能。

Thank you again to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone. Again, that's star one one on your telephone to ask a question. Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Tomasello of KBW. Please go ahead.

再次感謝您提問，請在電話上按星號一一。再次強調，請在電話上一一加星號來提問。我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Ryan Tomasello。請繼續。

Ryan, Tyler, thanks for taking the questions. And it seems like one of the more important variables you focus on from a macro perspective is not necessarily the absolute level of rates, but the volatility in rates is that an accurate statement? And if so, it would be helpful if you can just elaborate on how you define rate volatility if there's a difference between upward versus downward volatility, if that makes sense. And just generally how that plays into your willingness to ramp volumes?

瑞安、泰勒，感謝您提出問題。從宏觀角度來看，您關注的更重要的變數之一似乎不一定是利率的絕對水平，但利率的波動性是一個準確的說法嗎？如果是這樣，如果您能詳細說明如何定義利率波動性（如果向上波動性與向下波動性之間存在差異）（如果這有意義的話），那將會很有幫助。一般來說，這對您增加銷售的意願有何影響？

Yes, happy to have it right? Yes, I think a rate volatility really flows through and impacts the overall market by keeping sellers and buyers on the sidelines. And I think that is why you can see in the numbers and the metrics that we have in the back of our shareholder letter as well.

是的，很高興擁有它嗎？是的，我認為利率波動確實會影響整個市場，讓賣家和買家保持觀望。我認為這就是為什麼你也可以在我們股東信後面的數字和指標中看到。

If you look at where you've seen rates come down and you've seen increases in supply and demand. And so I think really for us, at least we care most about the balance of sellers and buyers, the balance of supply and demand and so that's really where we stay focused. And based on what we're seeing right now and what we've seen year to date, we continue to see a balance between the sellers and buyers, and that is leading to relative price stability and in line with what we've seen historically.

如果你看看利率下降的地方，你會發現供給和需求的增加。所以我認為對我們來說，至少我們最關心的是賣家和買家的平衡，供需的平衡，所以這才是我們真正關注的重點。根據我們現在所看到的以及今年迄今為止所看到的情況，我們繼續看到賣家和買家之間的平衡，這導致了相對價格穩定，並且與我們歷史上看到的情況一致。

Okay. Okay, thanks. And then just on the capital structure, it looks like borrowing capacity came down by a few hundred million quarter over quarter, and you've removed the language from the shareholder or shareholder letter around sufficient capacity to hit the breakeven targets. Just just to clarify that, that commentary and that move in the capacity? And second, just how you're thinking about longer-term capacity beyond the $10 billion in volume, especially as you have to dip into the higher cost floating rate debt and obviously you bought back some of the convert. Just any updated thoughts there on capital allocation to the convert?

好的。好的謝謝。然後就資本結構而言，借貸能力似乎環比下降了數億，並且您已經從股東或股東信中刪除了有關有足夠能力實現盈虧平衡目標的措辭。只是為了澄清這一點，那個評論和那個舉動？其次，你如何考慮超過 100 億美元規模的長期產能，特別是當你必須投入成本更高的浮動利率債務，並且顯然你回購了一些轉換債券時。關於轉換者的資本配置有什麼最新的想法嗎？

Yes. I'm certainly not trying to signal any change. So we're comfortable that with our current capital base, both on the equity and debt side, we can get to that breakeven point. We are and always have and you saw us do this in COVID modulating how much capacity we have lenders don't like to have unused capacity. So I think that is something we've been working with our lenders on and they like to reduce unused capacity and they've been there for us in the past. I think really for the near term, we're very focused on the fact that we have these term debt facilities that are fixed through the full year, and we feel very comfortable about our ability to use those facilities and cash on hand to sort of finance our business. And so really feel quite comfortable on the capital side. And I think if you sort of zoom out a bit and think about your last question there, Tom, but we obviously don't talk about future capital decisions. But we as you alluded to, we did three convertible note buybacks last year. We will always be opportunistic on and on the capital front.

是的。我當然不是想發出任何改變的訊號。因此，我們感到滿意的是，憑藉我們目前的股本和債務方面的資本基礎，我們可以達到損益平衡點。我們一直都是這樣，你看到我們在新冠疫情中這樣做了，調整我們擁有的容量，貸款人不喜歡有未使用的容量。因此，我認為這是我們一直在與貸方合作的事情，他們喜歡減少未使用的產能，而他們過去一直為我們服務。我認為，從短期來看，我們非常關注這樣一個事實：我們擁有這些全年固定的定期債務融資，並且我們對使用這些融資和手頭現金的能力感到非常滿意。為我們的業務提供資金。所以在首都方面真的感覺很舒服。我認為，如果你稍微縮小一點，思考一下你的最後一個問題，湯姆，但我們顯然不會談論未來的資本決策。但正如您所提到的，我們去年進行了三次可轉換票據回購。我們在資本方面將始終保持機會主義。

Great. Thanks. You bet.

偉大的。謝謝。你打賭。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mike Ng of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, Mike.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Mike Ng。請繼續，麥克。

Hey, good afternoon. Thank you very much. For the question. I just had a follow-up on the earlier question regarding OpEx and marketing spending. I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit more about on any of the direct benefits that you see from increasing marketing spending? Is there a direct relationship between marketing and sales.

嘿，下午好。非常感謝。對於這個問題。我剛剛對之前有關營運支出和行銷支出的問題進行了跟進。我只是想知道您是否可以多談談您從增加行銷支出中看到的任何直接好處？行銷和銷售之間是否有直接關係？

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