Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 2026 營收達 3.43 億美元,QoQ 增長 18%,YoY 增長 35%;EPS 為 1.93 美元,超出指引高標 0.20 美元
    • 上修下半年營收成長指引,由原本預期的 15% 提升至 25% 以上,Q4 營收預期高於 Q3;全年先進封裝成長展望由 50% 上修至 80%
    • 盤後未提及股價或同業對比
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • AI 與企業伺服器需求推動先進封裝與先進節點強勁成長
      • Dragonfly G5 推出帶動異質封裝、HBM、2.5D 應用需求大增,單一 OSAT 客戶下單超過 2 億美元
      • 矽光子(silicon photonics)新設計導入,帶來超過 5,000 萬美元訂單,預期 2030 年 TAM 超過 5 億美元
      • 面板級封裝(panel-level packaging)需求提升,JetStep、Firefly、Discover 軟體組合提供差異化價值
      • Atlas G6、Iris films、整合式量測等產品線於 2026 年有望創新高,並持續滲透先進節點與記憶體客戶
    • 風險:
      • 材料成本、燃油附加費、運費等成本壓力持續存在
      • 供應鏈瓶頸與產能擴充需持續關注,雖目前未見明顯限制
      • 部分特殊元件(specialty device)市場仍有波動,需觀察電源(power)市場復甦狀況
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 總營收:3.43 億美元,QoQ +18%,YoY +35%
    • 先進節點營收:約 1.2 億美元,QoQ +50%,其中記憶體佔 60%,QoQ +60%,邏輯 QoQ +40%
    • Dragonfly 檢測業務:QoQ +30%,主因 2.5D 與 HBM 應用強勁
    • 毛利率:57%,較 Q1 增加 130bps,較 Q4 2025 增加 250bps
    • 營業利潤率:Q2 達 30%,年初以來提升近 500bps
    • 現金及短期投資:19 億美元
  4. 財務預測
    • Q3 營收預估 3.8-4 億美元,Q4 進一步成長,全年下半年營收成長預期 25% 以上
    • 下半年毛利率每季預期再提升 50bps,全年毛利率擴張目標 350bps
    • 營業利潤率 Q3 預估 32%,年底達 33% 或更高
    • 未揭露 CapEx 預估
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 1. 1.1 億美元 backlog 組成與對 2027 年成長信心?
      A: 約 60-70% backlog 屬於今年,30-40% 已涵蓋 2027 年,主力來自先進封裝(HBM、2.5D)、OSAT 與先進節點,客戶對多年度擴產計畫具高度信心。
    • Q: 2. 毛利率展望,2027 年還有擴張空間嗎?
      A: Dragonfly G5 佔比提升將帶動 ASP 與毛利率,2026 年毛利率擴張主因為亞洲延伸工廠、供應鏈在地化、成本降低,2027 年預期這些動能持續,且產品組合優化有助毛利率進一步提升。
    • Q: 3. 近期成長動能來自產業成長還是市佔提升?
      A: 兩者皆有,產業需求強勁,但公司成長高於同業,Dragonfly 新應用與新客戶導入速度超預期,量測事業群(如 Iris films、integrated metrology)也有明顯市佔提升。
    • Q: 4. 產能擴充與供應鏈狀況?
      A: 自有工廠產能約 20 億美元,亞洲延伸工廠已達同等產能,且可彈性增班,現階段無產能瓶頸,供應鏈管理良好,能滿足客戶需求。
    • Q: 5. Dragonfly G5、Iris G2 前端導入進度?
      A: Iris G2 已出貨並進行安裝與驗證,預計 6-12 個月完成;Dragonfly G5 前端應用已開始送樣,客戶興趣高,2027 年貢獻將顯著提升,2026 年貢獻有限。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the Onto Innovation second quarter earnings release. Today's conference is being recorded.

    大家好,歡迎參加 Onto Innovation 第二季財報發布會。今天的會議將進行錄音。

  • At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Sidney Ho, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    此刻,我想將會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Sidney Ho。請開始。

  • Sidney Ho - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Sidney Ho - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Rachel, and good afternoon, everyone. Onto Innovation issued its 2026 second quarter financial results this afternoon shortly after the market closed. If you did not receive a copy of the release, please refer to the company's website where a copy of the release is posted. Joining us on the call today are Michael Plisinski, Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Roberts, Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝你,Rachel,各位下午好。Onto Innovation 已於今天下午、在收盤後不久發布 2026 年第二季財務結果。若您尚未收到新聞稿,請至公司網站查閱,新聞稿已張貼於網站上。今天與會者包括執行長 Michael Plisinski,以及財務長 Brian Roberts。

  • I'd like to remind you that the statements made by management on this call will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Those statements are subject to a range of changes, risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to vary materially. For more information regarding the risk factors that may impact Onto Innovation's results, I would encourage you to review our earnings release and our SEC filings. Onto Innovation does not undertake the obligation to update these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events.

    提醒各位,管理層在本次電話會議中的陳述將包含符合聯邦證券法定義的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到各種變動、風險與不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。關於可能影響 Onto Innovation 業績的風險因素之更多資訊,建議您查閱我們的財報新聞稿以及向 SEC 提交的文件。Onto Innovation 不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. As a reminder, a detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings release.

    除非另有說明,今天對財務結果的討論將以非 GAAP 財務基礎呈現。提醒各位,GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細調節表可在今日的財報新聞稿中找到。

  • Before we begin, I have a calendar announcement. On December 17, we plan to host an analyst meeting at the New York Stock Exchange to discuss our market strategies and updated financial model. We hope you'll save the date.

    在開始之前,我有一則行事曆公告。我們計畫於 12 月 17 日在紐約證券交易所舉辦分析師會議,討論我們的市場策略與更新後的財務模型。希望各位預留日期。

  • Let me now turn the call over to our CEO, Mike Plisinski. Mike?

    接下來我把電話交給我們的執行長 Mike Plisinski。Mike?

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Sidney. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our call today. The Onto Innovation team delivered an outstanding quarter with revenue, gross margin, operating margin and earnings per share all exceeding the high end of our guidance range. We set new quarterly revenue records with advanced nodes growing 50% quarter-over-quarter, and our inspection business dominated by Dragonfly systems growing by 30% on strong execution across both 2.5D logic and HBM applications. Our outlook is equally exciting as increasing levels of visibility from our customers is driving a record backlog surpassing $1.1 billion.

    謝謝你,Sidney。各位下午好,感謝今天加入我們的電話會議。Onto Innovation 團隊交出亮眼的一季,營收、毛利率、營業利益率與每股盈餘皆超越我們財測區間的上緣。我們創下單季營收新高,先進節點季增 50%;而以 Dragonfly 系統為主的檢測業務,在 2.5D 邏輯與 HBM 應用兩方面執行強勁,成長 30%。我們的展望同樣令人振奮,客戶能見度提升正推動在手訂單創新高,突破 11 億美元。

  • With this favorable backdrop, we're raising our second half revenue growth outlook to 25% or more over the first half, up from our previous expectation of 15% with Q4 revenue expected to be higher than the Q3 revenue.

    在此有利背景下,我們將下半年營收成長展望上調至較上半年成長 25% 或以上,高於先前預期的 15%;並預期第四季營收將高於第三季。

  • Looking deeper into our advanced packaging and specialty device markets. The quarter highlighted several important trends from which we benefit. First, the recognition of advanced packaging as a technology enabler continues to grow and is contributing to significant advances in AI and enterprise server performance. This, in turn, affords our customers greater visibility into the market than what has traditionally been seen from consumer-driven end market demand.

    進一步來看我們的先進封裝與特殊元件市場。本季凸顯了幾項我們受惠的重要趨勢。首先,先進封裝作為技術使能者的認知持續提升,並正促成 AI 與企業伺服器效能的顯著進步。這也讓我們的客戶相較於傳統由消費端終端市場需求驅動的情況,能擁有更高的市場能見度。

  • Now with the successful launch of the Dragonfly G5, we're experiencing unprecedented demand across an expanding set of customers, leading to an increase in our full year outlook for advanced packaging growth to approximately 80%, up significantly from the 50% growth we projected last quarter. The increase in demand is strongest from HBM manufacturers and OSATs supporting heterogeneous packaging primarily for AI applications.

    隨著 Dragonfly G5 成功上市,我們在客戶群持續擴大的情況下,正經歷前所未有的需求,帶動我們將全年先進封裝成長展望上調至約 80%,顯著高於上季所預估的 50% 成長。需求增幅最強勁的來源為 HBM 製造商,以及支援以 AI 應用為主之異質封裝的 OSAT。

  • For example, in the quarter, we were pleased to have won orders totaling over $200 million for Dragonfly technology from a single OSAT partner. The majority of these orders will be delivered in 2027, underscoring both the magnitude of the demand and customer confidence extending into the new year.

    例如,本季我們很高興自單一 OSAT 合作夥伴取得 Dragonfly 技術訂單,總額超過 2 億美元。其中大多數訂單將於 2027 年交付,凸顯需求規模之大,以及客戶對跨入新年度的信心。

  • A second example is the adoption of silicon photonics in new device designs. These new designs are expected to improve device performance while reducing environmental concerns such as heat generation and power consumption which impacts both data center operations and the communities hosting them. Although a nascent market, we've received over $50 million in orders to support this inflection with roughly two-thirds to be delivered in 2027.

    第二個例子是矽光子在新裝置設計中的採用。預期這些新設計可提升裝置效能,同時降低如熱生成與耗電等環境疑慮,這些因素會影響資料中心營運以及承載資料中心的社區。儘管仍屬新興市場,我們已取得超過 5,000 萬美元的訂單以支援此一拐點,其中約三分之二將於 2027 年交付。

  • We estimate our served addressable market in silicon photonics will grow to over $500 million by 2030. The opportunity spans several critical manufacturing applications across light guides, light generation and detection. The trends above intersect to fuel growth in panel-level packaging as the adoption of heterogeneous packaging increases and includes more dies such as silicon photonics, package sizes are getting larger.

    我們估計,到 2030 年我們在矽光子領域所服務的可觸及市場規模將成長至超過 5 億美元。此機會涵蓋光導、光源產生與偵測等多項關鍵製造應用。上述趨勢相互交會,推動面板級封裝成長:隨著異質封裝採用增加並納入更多晶粒(例如矽光子),封裝尺寸正變得更大。

  • In this dynamic, panel-level packaging delivers advantageous processing scale, especially for larger package sizes. Our combination of JetStep lithography, Firefly process control and Discover software provide compelling value to our customers with market strengthening, we expect our panel-level packaging revenue to more than double year-over-year with further growth in 2027. Of course, innovation in the advanced nodes, particularly new and smaller transistor geometries is also increasing demand for new process control solutions from the Onto Innovation team.

    在此動態下,面板級封裝可提供有利的處理規模,尤其適用於更大的封裝尺寸。我們結合 JetStep 微影、Firefly 製程控制與 Discover 軟體,為客戶提供具吸引力的價值;隨著市場走強,我們預期面板級封裝營收將年增逾一倍,並於 2027 年進一步成長。當然,先進節點的創新,特別是更新且更小的電晶體幾何結構,也正提升對 Onto Innovation 團隊新製程控制解決方案的需求。

  • As I mentioned, revenue from advanced nodes grew -- from advanced nodes customers grew 50% sequentially surpassing the record previously set in 2022. We are seeing broad-based strengthening across memory and logic segments, including expanded adoption of our Atlas G6 platform, which is being used for transistor metrology at several nodes below 20-nanometer where smaller spot sizes and increased precision is difficult to achieve, but vital to ensure high yield.

    如我所提到,先進節點客戶帶來的營收成長 50%(季增),超越先前於 2022 年創下的紀錄。我們看到記憶體與邏輯領域皆呈現廣泛走強,包括我們 Atlas G6 平台的採用擴大;該平台用於 20 奈米以下多個節點的電晶體量測,在這些節點要達成更小光斑與更高精度相當困難,但對確保高良率至關重要。

  • So in addition to the logic customers, we discussed last quarter, we expect to ship multiple systems to a major DRAM customer in the second half of the year to support their next-generation memory devices. And rounding out our optical portfolio, both Iris films and integrated metrology product lines are also on track to achieve record revenue levels in 2026.

    因此,除了我們上季討論過的邏輯客戶之外,我們預期今年下半年將向一家主要 DRAM 客戶出貨多套系統,以支援其下一代記憶體元件。此外,作為我們光學產品組合的一環,Iris 薄膜與整合式量測產品線也正按計畫在 2026 年達成創紀錄的營收水準。

  • Complementing our optical metrology, we see new applications for our FAaST technology to help predict device performance earlier in the fabrication process, thereby saving production costs. Taken together, we're confident that advanced nodes revenue will grow more than 35% in 2026, continuing to outpace the latest WFE growth expectations.

    在光學量測之外,我們也看到 FAaST 技術的新應用,可在製造流程更早期協助預測元件效能,進而節省生產成本。綜合而言,我們有信心 2026 年先進節點營收將成長超過 35%,持續優於最新的 WFE 成長預期。

  • And lastly, we're looking forward to expanding on our successful collaboration with Rigaku to deliver powerful new process control solutions for our customers. Customer response to our partnership has been very positive, and we're confident that together, we will provide compelling value to our customers.

    最後,我們也期待擴大與 Rigaku 的成功合作,為客戶提供強大的新製程控制解決方案。客戶對我們合作夥伴關係的回應非常正面,我們有信心雙方將共同為客戶帶來具吸引力的價值。

  • Estimates of the size of the market today for X-ray technology used in semiconductor applications is approximately $1 billion. We expect the growing adoption of more complex 3D transistor and packaging technology over the next several years will result in accelerated adoption of this X-ray technology and above-average market growth in the years ahead.

    目前用於半導體應用的 X 光技術市場規模估計約為 10 億美元。我們預期未來數年更複雜的 3D 電晶體與封裝技術採用增加,將帶動此 X 光技術加速導入,並使未來幾年市場成長高於平均水準。

  • And with that, let me now turn the call to Brian to review our financial highlights and provide third quarter guidance. Brian?

    接下來,我把電話交給 Brian,請他回顧我們的財務重點並提供第三季財測指引。Brian?

  • Brian Roberts - Chief Financial Officer

    Brian Roberts - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Mike. Good afternoon, everyone. As Mike noted, the Onto Innovation team delivered an impressive second quarter exceeding our previous guidance across key financial metrics. These results reflect our strong positioning with customers across both front end and advanced packaging in support of the surge of AI demand and other applications. Revenue of $343 million increased 18% sequentially and 35% year-over-year.

    謝謝,Mike。各位下午好。如 Mike 所提到,Onto Innovation 團隊在第二季於關鍵財務指標上皆超越我們先前的財測,表現令人印象深刻。這些結果反映我們在前段製程與先進封裝兩方面、面向客戶的強勢定位,以支援 AI 需求激增及其他應用。營收為 3.43 億美元,季增 18%,年增 35%。

  • Our advanced nodes business increased by 50% from Q1 to approximately $120 million. Memory, which comprises about 60% of the total, grew at a sequential rate of approximately 60%. Logic also was strong in the quarter with more than 40% sequential growth. Advanced Packaging and Specialty device comprised nearly half of the revenue in Q2. As Mike noted, inspection highlighted by the Dragonfly product family was strong with 30% quarter-over-quarter growth driven by 2.5D and HBM.

    我們的先進節點業務自第一季起成長了50%,達到約1.2億美元。記憶體約占總額的60%,按季成長約60%。邏輯在本季也表現強勁,按季成長超過40%。先進封裝與特殊裝置在第二季合計占了近一半的營收。如Mike所提,檢測業務在以Dragonfly產品系列為亮點的帶動下表現強勁,受2.5D與HBM驅動,季對季成長30%。

  • Other packaging and specialty device, including power and SDI, declined sequentially as expected, but will rebound back to Q1 levels next quarter. Software and services comprised the remaining second quarter revenue. We have consistently discussed our push towards improved profitability this year through our move to extended factories, our focus on driving operational productivity and our improved forecasting capabilities.

    其他封裝與特殊裝置(包括電源與SDI)如預期按季下滑,但下季將回升至第一季水準。軟體與服務構成了第二季其餘的營收。我們今年持續討論透過轉向延伸工廠、聚焦提升營運生產力,以及改善預測能力,來推動獲利能力提升。

  • The results of these efforts to date are evidenced in the second quarter as we achieved a gross margin of 57% representing an increase of 250 basis points from Q4 2025 and 130 basis points from the first quarter. This is a level of performance that has already surpassed our initial expectation for 200 basis points of gross margin expansion in 2026.

    截至目前,這些努力的成果在第二季已獲得印證:我們達成57%的毛利率,較2025年第四季提升250個基點,較第一季提升130個基點。這樣的表現水準已超越我們原先對2026年毛利率擴張200個基點的初始預期。

  • Importantly, we're also gaining additional leverage across our operational teams as we delivered a 30% operating margin in Q2, an increase of nearly 500 basis points from the beginning of the year. As of June 30, we have nearly $1.9 billion of cash and short-term investments on hand. In the second quarter, we generated $62 million of cash from operations or slightly over 100% of our second quarter net income.

    更重要的是,我們也在營運團隊層面取得更多槓桿效益:第二季營業利益率達30%,較年初提升近500個基點。截至6月30日,我們持有近19億美元的現金與短期投資。第二季我們自營運活動產生6,200萬美元現金,約略超過第二季淨利的100%。

  • While we are in a cycle of increasing inventory to ensure continuity of supply chain, and to support the revenue acceleration in the business, we remain committed to strong cash generation and active working capital management.

    雖然我們正處於提高庫存的週期,以確保供應鏈連續性並支援業務營收加速成長,但我們仍致力於強勁的現金創造能力與積極的營運資金管理。

  • In May, we completed a $1.5 billion 0% interest convertible debt offering maturing in 2031, which generated about $1.2 billion in net cash to the company. The remaining $300 million was used to repurchase shares, totaling approximately $200 million of our common stock and to purchase capped call, which increases the strike price for dilution purposes, to $509.06 per share and for professional fees related to the transaction.

    5月,我們完成一筆15億美元、0%利息、2031年到期的可轉換公司債發行,為公司帶來約12億美元的淨現金。其餘3億美元用於回購股份(合計約2億美元的普通股)以及購買上限買權(capped call),以將稀釋目的之行使價提高至每股509.06美元,並支付與該交易相關的專業費用。

  • For Q2, we reported earnings of $1.93 per share, reflecting a $0.20 increase over the high end of our previous guidance range. Now let me provide some forward-looking thoughts for the second half of the year. With the surging demand environment, coupled with strong operational execution, we are raising our revenue, margin and earnings per share expectations for the second half of 2026.

    第二季我們每股盈餘為1.93美元,較先前指引區間上緣高出0.20美元。接下來我提供一些對下半年展望的看法。在需求環境快速升溫、且營運執行強勁的帶動下,我們上調2026年下半年的營收、利潤率與每股盈餘預期。

  • Building off our strong first half results, we are expecting revenue to grow more than 25% in the second half of the year. Specifically, we expect Q3 revenue in the range of $380 million to $400 million with an additional uptick in Q4. While cognizant of continued headwinds, for example, around certain material input costs, fuel surcharges and freight expense, we anticipate additional gross margin expansion in the second half of 2026 of an incremental 50 basis points per quarter in Q3 and in Q4. We expect operating margins to increase by 200 basis points to 32% in the third quarter and to exit the year at an operating margin of 33% or higher. Earnings per share at the midpoint of the Q3 guide would approximate $2.28 per share. This assumes a non-GAAP tax rate of 15% and slightly more than 50 million shares outstanding.

    在上半年強勁成果的基礎上,我們預期下半年營收將成長超過25%。具體而言,我們預期第三季營收介於3.8億至4.0億美元之間,第四季將再進一步上升。儘管我們留意到持續的逆風,例如部分材料投入成本、燃油附加費與運輸費用,我們仍預期2026年下半年毛利率將進一步擴張,第三季與第四季每季各再增加50個基點。我們預期第三季營業利益率提高200個基點至32%,並在年底以33%或更高的營業利益率作收。以第三季指引中位數計算,每股盈餘約為2.28美元。此假設非GAAP稅率為15%,流通在外股數略高於5,000萬股。

  • And with that, let me turn it back to Mike for some closing thoughts before we take your questions. Mike?

    接下來,在我們開始提問之前,我把時間交回給Mike做一些結語。Mike?

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Brian. Our record quarter and improved outlook for the second half of 2026 reflect deepening customer engagements across several of the most important technology trends shaping this new era for semiconductors. With industry analysts forecasting hyperscale capital expenditures in 2027, north of $1 trillion, it's clear that demand throughout the semiconductor value chain remains high and gated by new fabrication facilities coming online. We believe our customers are confident in their visibility and in turn, continue to provide us exceptional insights into their multiyear capacity plans.

    謝謝你,Brian。我們創紀錄的季度表現,以及對2026年下半年更佳的展望,反映出我們在多項最重要的技術趨勢上,與客戶的合作正持續加深,而這些趨勢正在塑造半導體新時代。隨著產業分析師預估2027年超大規模(hyperscale)資本支出將超過1兆美元,很明顯半導體價值鏈的需求仍然強勁,且受限於新晶圓廠產能上線的節奏。我們相信客戶對其能見度充滿信心,並因此持續為我們提供其多年期產能規劃的卓越洞見。

  • In response, our team is focused on enhancing the level and pace of innovation as well as our delivery of that innovation through global operations and support excellence. As a result, our metrology suite is expanding across both logic and memory customers, setting new records in OCD films and integrated metrology.

    作為回應,我們的團隊專注於提升創新水準與速度,並透過全球營運與卓越支援,加速將創新交付落地。因此,我們的量測(metrology)產品組合正同時在邏輯與記憶體客戶中擴張,並在OCD薄膜與整合式量測方面創下新紀錄。

  • Demand for our Dragonfly inspection led by the significant performance improvement of our new Dragonfly G5 is increasing rapidly across a broadening set of heterogeneous packaging applications. New market opportunities in silicon photonics, surface charge metrology and an X-ray solutions for 3D and exotic materials in partnership with Rigaku will only expand our opportunities as we look into 2027 and 2028. And as we grow, we continue our relentless focus on identifying and realizing efficiency gains across our global team.

    在新一代Dragonfly G5顯著的效能提升帶動下,市場對我們Dragonfly檢測的需求,正快速擴大至更廣泛的異質整合封裝應用。與Rigaku合作,在矽光子、表面電荷量測,以及用於3D與特殊材料的X光解決方案等新市場機會,將在我們展望2027與2028年時進一步擴大機會。同時,隨著我們成長,我們仍持續不懈地聚焦於在全球團隊中辨識並實現效率提升。

  • We are starting to see the results. And as Brian noted, we are on track to deliver 350 basis points of gross margin expansion and more than 750 basis points of incremental operating margin in 2026 with continued advances expected in 2027. A large driver of these improvements is the significant enhancements to our operational foundation with the successful ramp of our extended factories in Asia. These partnerships provide us with increased operational flexibility at a significantly reduced level of capital expenditure allowing us to lower cost and focus investments on the technology and application expertise our customers depend on, adding fuel to our engine of growth.

    我們已開始看到成果。如Brian所提,我們正按計畫在2026年實現350個基點的毛利率擴張,以及超過750個基點的增量營業利益率提升,並預期2027年仍將持續進步。推動這些改善的一大因素,是我們在亞洲成功擴產的延伸工廠,對營運基礎所帶來的顯著強化。這些合作夥伴關係以大幅降低資本支出為代價,為我們提供更高的營運彈性,使我們得以降低成本,並將投資聚焦於客戶所仰賴的技術與應用專業,為我們的成長引擎增添動能。

  • And now, Rachel, let's open the call for questions from our covering analysts.

    現在,Rachel,讓我們開放電話會議,請追蹤我們的分析師提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Craig Ellis, B. Riley Securities.

    (接線員指示)Craig Ellis,B. Riley Securities。

  • Craig Ellis - Equity Analyst

    Craig Ellis - Equity Analyst

  • And congratulations on the very robust execution team. Mike, I wanted to start with you. We've got a number of financial records that we're talking about today. So I'll focus a question on one of them. Of the $1.1 billion backlog, can you provide some color on some of the mix dynamics that you see in that backlog and some of the duration dynamics that you see? And where I'm headed is, can you help us understand the confidence that large backlog gives you, as you look at 2027, and the levels of revenue and the year-on-year growth potential.

    也恭喜你們的執行團隊展現非常強勁的執行力。Mike,我想先從你開始。今天我們談到不少財務新紀錄。因此我會把問題聚焦在其中一項。針對11億美元的在手訂單(backlog),你能否分享一些你所看到的組合變化(mix dynamics)以及你所看到的期間/存續(duration)動態?我想了解的是:當你們展望2027年時,這麼大的在手訂單能帶給你們多大的信心,以及營收水準與年對年成長潛力。

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. I think the backlog is a strong indicator of our customers' confidence more than anything else. They're confident in their expansion plans. They want to secure supply that they need from their critical suppliers such as us. And so they're confidently issuing purchase orders well in advance of the historical norms. So I think that's a great takeaway and that's why we shared it.

    當然。我認為在手訂單最重要的是,它強烈反映了客戶的信心。他們對擴產計畫有信心。他們希望從像我們這樣的關鍵供應商,確保其所需的供應。因此,他們很有信心地在遠早於過往常態的時間點就發出採購訂單。我認為這是很重要的重點,也正因如此我們才把它分享出來。

  • As far as the mix goes, I think, obviously, we still have several months left, several -- well, many months, four or five months left in this quarter. Probably 60%, 70% of it is tied to this year, but 30%, 40% is covering 2027, and it's still early. So I think it bodes well for another year of strength in 2027, the discussions we're having with our customers is quite constructive for 2027 growth and growth dynamics.

    就組合而言,我認為很明顯地,我們仍然還有幾個月的時間,幾個——嗯,很多個月,本季還剩四到五個月。其中大概60%、70%是與今年綁定,但30%、40%涵蓋到2027年,而且現在仍然還早。所以我認為這對2027年再度維持強勁表現是個好兆頭;我們與客戶正在進行的討論,對於2027年的成長以及成長動能而言相當具建設性。

  • As far as what's in the backlog, I think it's just a continuation of the trends we're seeing, relatively strong packaging across both memory and logic. Basically HBM and 2.5D logic as well that includes OSATs and a broadening customer list there, as well as the advanced nodes where we expect to see the meaningful continuation of the growth that we've had the last two years really.

    至於積壓訂單(backlog)裡的內容,我認為只是我們所看到趨勢的延續,也就是記憶體與邏輯兩端的封裝需求都相對強勁。基本上包含HBM以及2.5D邏輯,這也涵蓋OSATs與更廣泛的客戶名單;另外在先進節點方面,我們預期過去兩年所呈現的成長,將會有相當顯著的延續。

  • Craig Ellis - Equity Analyst

    Craig Ellis - Equity Analyst

  • That's very helpful. And Brian, I wanted to ask a follow-up to you, if I could. As Mike noted, stellar gross margin progress this year tracking to 350 basis points, the question not looking for guide, just looking for some color is that as we look beyond this year, from these last year levels than we thought we were going to have starting the year. Is there still gross margin expansion potential when we get into 2027 and at the current pacing, it seems like we could get to a level that starts with a 6. I'm just wondering if you have some comments on those prospects.

    這非常有幫助。Brian,如果可以的話,我想再追問你一個問題。如Mike所提到的,今年毛利率進展亮眼,走勢對應約350個基點;這個問題不是要你提供指引,只是想請你補充一些看法:當我們展望今年之後,相較於我們在年初原先預期、以及去年那樣的水準。到了2027年,毛利率是否仍有擴張的潛力?以目前的步調看起來,我們似乎有機會達到以「6」開頭的水準。我只是想請你對這些前景做一些評論。

  • Brian Roberts - Chief Financial Officer

    Brian Roberts - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure, Craig. Thanks. I mean one of the things that gives us a lot of confidence as we look into '27, even though we haven't put together a formal plan yet is the contribution from Dragonfly G5 is still a smaller portion, a smaller proportion of our overall revenue for 2026. And as we've talked about, as the G5 continues to ramp up and becomes a bigger percentage of our business, there's an average selling price lift that goes alongside that, that helps give us a lot more fuel for our gross margin.

    當然可以,Craig。謝謝。我的意思是,當我們看向'27年時,有一件事讓我們非常有信心:即使我們還沒有制定正式計畫,Dragonfly G5在2026年的整體營收中仍只占較小的一部分、較小的比例。而且如我們所談到的,隨著G5持續放量、並在我們業務中占比提高,平均售價(ASP)也會隨之提升,這能為我們的毛利率提供更多動能。

  • So certainly, in 2026, a lot of the growth has come from the move to the extended factories and all of those things that we've talked about there around the localization of supply chain, saving freight costs, lower labor costs that we've been able to tap into, '27, I think, will be a combination of that continuing to scale along hopefully, with some ASP growth as the mix changes in the business.

    因此可以確定的是,在2026年,許多成長來自於轉向延伸工廠(extended factories),以及我們談過的那些事項——例如供應鏈在地化、節省運輸成本、以及我們得以利用的較低勞動成本;到了'27年,我認為將會是上述因素持續擴大規模,再加上隨著業務組合改變而帶來的ASP成長,兩者的結合。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Melissa Weathers, Deutsche Bank.

    Melissa Weathers,德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)。

  • Melissa Weathers - Analyst

    Melissa Weathers - Analyst

  • Thanks for having me on the call and congrats on the nice results. I guess when we look at the results you guys are seeing and some of the backlog you're seeing, is there any way you can help us parse out how much of this is just a faster TAM or SAM growth in the industry getting better? And how much of it could be share gains or new product wins? Just any way to think about how much of this is industry-wide versus you guys gaining some incremental share?

    謝謝讓我加入這通電話會議,也恭喜你們取得不錯的成果。我想,當我們看你們目前看到的結果以及部分積壓訂單時,你們是否能協助我們拆解:其中有多少只是產業的TAM或SAM成長更快、景氣變得更好?又有多少可能是市占提升或新產品得標(wins)?也就是,有沒有什麼方式可以思考:這些成長有多少是產業面、又有多少是你們額外取得了一些增量市占?

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure, Melissa. I think it's a little of both, right? So of course, the industry is growing aggressively. But if you look at our peers. I think we're growing above that. And then you can start playing some games around the base and this and that. And so I'll leave that all tough math to you. But from what we see, customers are adopting, finding new applications and adopting the Dragonfly in new areas at a much stronger pace than even we expected three months ago. We're adding new customers. Those customers are adopting the products in a broader way. So that's a mix of both their demand as well as share gain opportunities.

    當然可以,Melissa。我認為兩者都有,對吧?所以當然,產業正在積極成長。但如果你看我們的同業。我認為我們的成長高於他們。然後你可以開始在基期等因素上做一些推算。所以那些困難的數學我就交給你了。但就我們所見,客戶正在採用、在新的應用中找到機會,並以比我們三個月前預期更強的速度,在新領域導入Dragonfly。我們正在新增新客戶。這些客戶也以更廣泛的方式採用產品。所以這同時包含他們的需求,以及我們取得市占提升機會。

  • I think the metrology business is also doing a great job expanding their footprint in the factories, some of those records we talked about, whether it's Iris films or in the integrated side, there are new applications in there, for instance, in logic, that are all share gain. We didn't -- a year ago, we wouldn't have had hardly any, maybe zero logic for integrated metrology. So I think it's really a mix. It's both, I'd say.

    我認為量測(metrology)業務也在擴大其在工廠中的佈局方面做得非常好;我們談到的一些紀錄,不論是Iris薄膜(films)或整合式(integrated)那一端,都有新的應用出現,例如在邏輯領域,這些都是市占提升。我們——一年前,我們在整合式量測的邏輯領域幾乎沒有,可能是零。所以我認為這確實是個混合。我會說兩者都有。

  • Melissa Weathers - Analyst

    Melissa Weathers - Analyst

  • Great to hear. And then as we think about your capacity to support this growth into next year, it seems like momentum is building. So any guardrails you can help us around like what is your revenue capacity? What kind of steps are you taking to expand capacity? Just anything we should be thinking about on the supply side?

    很高興聽到。接著,當我們思考你們支援這些成長、延伸到明年的產能時,看起來動能正在累積。所以你們能否提供一些界線或框架,例如你們的營收產能大概是多少?你們正在採取哪些步驟來擴充產能?在供給端方面,有沒有什麼我們應該納入考量的?

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, in the past, we've said that we had the capacity for $2 billion with our in-house factories. Since then, since that time, we've now added essentially the equal capability with our extended factories. And in fact, what we're seeing is those factories are reducing cycle times, adding second shifts with the capability of even third shifts so that capacity is actually much higher than our factories here in the US. So we're not capacity constrained, supply chain constraints, that's always a concern.

    嗯,過去我們曾說過,僅靠我們自有工廠的產能可支撐20億美元的規模。自那之後,從那個時間點起,我們現在透過延伸工廠基本上新增了同等的能力。事實上,我們看到那些工廠正在縮短週期時間(cycle times)、增加第二班,甚至具備開第三班的能力,因此其產能其實比我們在美國的工廠還要高得多。所以我們並不受產能限制;供應鏈限制則一直是個需要關注的點。

  • We've done a great job managing supply chains throughout both the COVID time frames where we met all shipments and commitments to customers. We're continuing to do that now even as we see quite strong phenomenal growth. We're working closely with our supply chains. We're leveraging our balance sheet a little bit, and we're making sure that we can meet our commitments to customers.

    我們在整個COVID期間的供應鏈管理做得非常好,當時我們滿足了所有出貨與對客戶的承諾。即使現在我們看到相當強勁、驚人的成長,我們也持續做到這一點。我們正與供應鏈夥伴密切合作。我們也稍微運用資產負債表,並確保我們能履行對客戶的承諾。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Chin, Stifel.

    Brian Chin,Stifel。

  • Brian Chin - Analyst

    Brian Chin - Analyst

  • Nice results. Maybe first, in terms of the increase to -- I think it was 80% or at least 80% growth in inspection this year. Mike, can you outline a few of those drivers that have filled in or picked up for you across packaging in the back half of the year. Are you beginning to ship some follow-on systems against the HBM and 2.5D logic wins that you announced earlier in the year? Or maybe Gen 5, as you mentioned, is that big a driver this year, but should be next year. Can you also lay out maybe take a guess at what that Gen 5 versus Gen 3 mix could be for Dragonfly in '27?

    成果不錯。也許先從檢測(inspection)今年的成長提升——我記得是80%或至少80%的成長——談起。Mike,你能否概述幾個驅動因素,說明在今年下半年封裝領域有哪些動能補上來或加速了?你們是否開始針對今年稍早宣布的HBM與2.5D邏輯得標案,出貨一些後續系統(follow-on systems)?或者如你提到的Gen 5,今年是否是很大的驅動因素,但明年會是?你也能否說明一下,或許猜測一下,到了'27年Dragonfly的Gen 5相對於Gen 3的組合可能會是什麼樣子?

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. We won't -- the Gen 5 mix is going to increase. That's kind of obvious, but we're not going to quantify that just yet because I think even our customers are working on that for themselves. So I think the Gen 5, the excitement around Gen 5 is the new applications it opens up with its higher resolution and opportunities to grow into segments where we perhaps weren't as well suited before. So that's super positive.

    是的。我們不會——Gen 5的占比會提高。這點很明顯,但我們現在還不打算量化,因為我認為就連我們的客戶也正在為他們自己做這方面的規劃。所以我認為,市場對Gen 5感到興奮之處在於:它更高的解析度所開啟的新應用,以及讓我們有機會成長到一些過去可能不那麼適合的細分市場。所以這非常正面。

  • As far as the mix of the growth now, it's essentially an expansion of the 2.5D, so that's the OSATs picking up more volume. It's new innovative packaging technologies that some of the customers are adopting that we've already been well positioned for. But driving growth.

    就目前的成長組合而言,基本上是 2.5D 的擴張,也就是 OSAT 正在承接更多的出貨量。這是一些客戶正在採用、我們也早已具備良好佈局的新型創新封裝技術。並且帶動成長。

  • And for sure, it's HBM, where we've seen really phenomenal growth in both 2.5D -- sorry, both 2D inspection as well as 3D metrology. So there is some pickup from our 3DI as well as new applications for our subsurface inspection, where we've seen very strong growth this year as that product becomes more critical for 3D or heterogeneous packaging applications. So the reasons are varied. But at the bottom -- at the end of the day, it boils down to really strong demand for the flexibility and value proposition that the Dragonfly offers our customers.

    而且毫無疑問是 HBM,我們在 2.5D——抱歉,是在 2D 檢測以及 3D 量測兩方面都看到了非常驚人的成長。因此,我們的 3DI 也有一些拉動,同時我們的次表面檢測也出現了新的應用;隨著該產品對 3D 或異質整合封裝應用變得更關鍵,我們今年在這方面看到非常強勁的成長。所以原因是多方面的。但歸根結底——到最後,這都可歸結為客戶對 Dragonfly 所提供的彈性與價值主張有非常強勁的需求。

  • Brian Chin - Analyst

    Brian Chin - Analyst

  • Great. I appreciate that. Maybe for the follow-up question. Specialty, I think you came into the year expecting that to be maybe down a little bit year-on-year. Can you kind of outline how that's improved? And kind of if you expect that to be sort of contributor growth next year? And also for silicon photonics that you referenced, are you -- is that -- you put that more in specialty? Or is that really advanced packaging relative to the application?

    很好。謝謝你的說明。也許追問一下。Specialty(特殊應用)方面,我記得你們年初預期可能會較去年小幅下滑。你能否概述一下目前是如何改善的?以及你是否預期明年它會成為成長的貢獻來源?另外,你提到的矽光子,你們是——那是——你們把它更多歸在 specialty?還是就應用而言,它其實更屬於先進封裝?

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Silicon photonics is for sure in the specialty segment, similar with power. Power would be there as well. We're definitely seeing kind of a little bit better on the specialty, probably helped by the silicon photonics, where it's more flat versus the down we originally expected at the start of the year.

    矽光子確實屬於 specialty 事業部門,與電力(power)類似。電力也會歸在那裡。我們確實看到 specialty 表現稍微好一些,可能受矽光子帶動,因此相較於年初原先預期的下滑,現在更接近持平。

  • As far as next year goes, I think depending on what power does, we're certainly seeing and we talked about the silicon photonics, that's a potential for some incremental adds next year. And if power recovers, as we're starting to see some indications of, we should see the specialty market start to grow as well. That won't offset -- or that won't be close to the growth we're expecting from the packaging side.

    至於明年,我認為要看電力市場的表現;我們當然也談到矽光子,這在明年有機會帶來一些增量貢獻。如果電力市場復甦——我們已開始看到一些跡象——那麼 specialty 市場也應該會開始成長。但那無法抵消——或者說,遠遠比不上——我們預期封裝端帶來的成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Edward Yang, Oppenheimer.

    Edward Yang,Oppenheimer。

  • Edward Yang - Analyst

    Edward Yang - Analyst

  • Mike, Brian, thanks for the time and impressive quarter. I just wanted to double click on this backlog and also the step-up in revenue growth. And correct me if I'm wrong, but the last time you mentioned backlog was in fourth quarter. And at that time, it had doubled to about $0.5 billion. So now it looks like it's doubled again to $1 billion here. So with the step-up in the second half revenue growth to 25% versus 15% previously versus the first half and the backlog above $1 billion, is that still accelerating as revenue steps up or is business now moving into a more stable elevated run rate from these levels?

    Mike、Brian,感謝撥冗,這一季表現也很亮眼。我想再深入確認一下你們的在手訂單(backlog),以及營收成長加速的情況。如果我沒記錯,你們上一次提到 backlog 是在第四季。當時它翻倍到大約 5 億美元。所以現在看起來又翻倍到 10 億美元。在下半年營收成長率提升到 25%(相較先前、以及上半年約 15%),且 backlog 超過 10 億美元的情況下,隨著營收走高,這是否仍在加速?還是說業務現在正進入一個在此水準上的較穩定、但更高的運行速率?

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's hard to answer that because we don't get steady streams of orders. We'll get a large chunk. We finished negotiating a VPA and then that's followed up by a large chunk of orders and then some fall off, mostly in the last month. So it's hard to say, okay, what's the book-to-bill? How are things accelerating?

    這很難回答,因為我們收到的訂單並不是穩定、均勻的流入。我們會收到一大筆。我們完成一份 VPA 的談判後,接著就會有一大批訂單,然後又會有一些回落,主要發生在最後一個月。所以很難說,好吧,接單出貨比(book-to-bill)是多少?事情是在如何加速?

  • I would say the general feeling is that backlogs are growing. I mean, that's good. So we are seeing strength in the backlog. But we're also shipping more and more products. So what we're seeing really is a confidence from our customers to commit to make longer-term commitments so that they can secure their slots in order to meet their ramp plans. And so -- from that perspective, I would say the better indications of where the markets are growing are in the kind of growth plans and the capital expense announcements from our customers.

    我會說整體感受是 backlog 正在成長。我的意思是,這是好事。所以我們確實看到在手訂單的強勁。但我們同時也在出貨越來越多的產品。因此我們真正看到的是,客戶更有信心做出較長期的承諾,以便能確保產能排程(slot),來符合他們的擴產爬坡計畫。所以——從這個角度來看,我會說更能反映市場成長的指標,是客戶的成長計畫以及資本支出公告。

  • Edward Yang - Analyst

    Edward Yang - Analyst

  • Okay. And just following up on that, it sounds like the implied revenue for fourth quarter is about 3.5% sequential growth. You're guiding to almost 14% sequential growth in the third quarter. Could we see upside to that? Or is there any sort of seasonality that would imply a slower sequential growth in that quarter?

    了解。再追問一下,聽起來第四季的隱含營收大約是季增 3.5%。你們對第三季的指引是接近季增 14%。這部分有可能上修嗎?或者是否存在某種季節性因素,會使得該季度的季增看起來較慢?

  • Brian Roberts - Chief Financial Officer

    Brian Roberts - Chief Financial Officer

  • For Q4, I mean if you just use the midpoint of the revenue guide that we gave at $390 million, the 25% kind of growth number as a floor would put you somewhere into the low 400s for Q4. So I think the sequential growth continues at a pretty rapid pace as we move from Q3 into Q4. So we'll see exactly as orders come together from a shipments perspective of when things go out the door and sometimes that depends on customers' ability to take something and have it show up on the dock, but we're feeling pretty good about the back half of the year, into the first part of '27.

    就第四季而言,如果你用我們給的營收指引中位數 3.90 億美元來算,把 25% 的成長數字當作底線,第四季大概會落在 4 億出頭的區間。所以我認為從第三季到第四季,季增仍會以相當快的速度持續。至於最終會如何,還要看訂單如何匯總到出貨端、何時能實際出貨;有時也取決於客戶接收設備的能力,以及設備能否如期到達他們的收貨碼頭(dock)。但我們對今年下半年、以及延伸到 2027 年初的表現感覺相當不錯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matthew Prisco, Cantor.

    Matthew Prisco,Cantor。

  • Matthew Prisco - Analyst

    Matthew Prisco - Analyst

  • I guess, first wanted to dig into advanced node and kind of product cycle story there. Can you give us an update on traction and customer conversations you're seeing on G5's potential penetration into the front end? And then -- maybe any update on what you're seeing in Iris G2 as well.

    我想先深入談談先進製程節點以及相關的產品週期故事。你能否更新一下你們目前看到的進展(traction),以及在客戶對話中,G5 在前段製程(front end)潛在滲透率方面的情況?另外——也請更新一下 Iris G2 目前的進展。

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So with Iris G2, we've made several shipments, and we're working through the normal installation, qualification, then performance testing against the specifications customers want to see. So that process is ongoing.

    關於 Iris G2,我們已經出貨了好幾台,並且正在進行一般流程:安裝、認證(qualification),接著依照客戶希望看到的規格進行效能測試。所以這個流程仍在進行中。

  • And like we've said in the past, generally, these last 6 to 12 months. So hopefully, we'll be able to accelerate some of that, but it's basically going according to plan. And that's similar with the G5 for front-end applications. We've got basically some delivered. So we're starting to run some samples through the tool and compare against the incumbent.

    而且如同我們過去所說,通常這些流程需要最後 6 到 12 個月。所以希望我們能加速其中一些環節,但基本上是按計畫推進。G5 用於前段應用也是類似情況。我們基本上已經交付了一些。因此我們開始把一些樣品放到設備上跑,並與既有供應商(incumbent)做比較。

  • We're also running a lot of samples in the application centers. We've talked about that in the past. So in our application center. So customer interest seems quite high. And again, we'll probably see bigger contributions from that in 2027 not as much in 2026 as we've been consistently reporting.

    我們也在應用中心跑了大量樣品。我們過去也談過這點。也就是在我們的應用中心。所以客戶興趣看起來相當高。同樣地,正如我們一直以來所報告的,我們可能會在 2027 年看到更大的貢獻,而不是 2026 年。

  • Matthew Prisco - Analyst

    Matthew Prisco - Analyst

  • Helpful. And then maybe can you give some more color on the visibility you're seeing today, maybe how does that vary across end markets, what type of lead time are you seeing? And how do you think that sets you up for growth in 2027 maybe versus a WFE market that's now being discussed in $190 billion to $200 billion range for another 30% growth year.

    很有幫助。接著你能否再多談一些你們目前看到的能見度(visibility)?例如在不同終端市場之間有何差異、你們看到的交期(lead time)大概是多久?以及你認為這如何讓你們在 2027 年的成長更有利——相較於目前市場討論的 WFE 規模約 1,900 億到 2,000 億美元、且可能再成長 30% 的一年。

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. It's a good question. I would say the biggest change in visibility. Advanced nodes has historically had a better visibility than advanced packaging. So for us, the biggest change or improvement is in the advanced packaging piece, which given the magnitude of advanced packaging revenue for our company, that's a fairly significant improvement in visibility for us, well over half the business tends to be from the advanced packaging markets. So that -- and I explained on the call, the reason for that is it's being driven more from the AI hyperscale demand versus consumer demand, trying to predict if everyone is going to buy new cell phones or not. That was always a much tougher challenge for our customers.

    是的。這是個好問題。我會說最大的改變在於可視性。先進製程節點過去在可視性方面一向優於先進封裝。因此對我們而言,最大的變化或改善是在先進封裝這一塊;考量到先進封裝對本公司營收的規模,這對我們的可視性而言是相當顯著的改善,因為業務中往往有一半以上來自先進封裝市場。所以——我在電話會議上也解釋過,其原因在於需求更多是由 AI 超大規模(hyperscale)需求所驅動,而不是由消費性需求所驅動;也就是不必去預測大家是否都會去買新手機。那一直是我們客戶更難應對的挑戰。

  • Matthew Prisco - Analyst

    Matthew Prisco - Analyst

  • And then maybe how do you think about that positioning in 2027 given that -- visibility versus the market?

    那麼,或許你如何看待在 2027 年的定位——在可視性相對於市場的情況下?

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I knew there was another part of the question. And unfortunately, we're not really prepared to talk about 2027 yet. However, we don't see any reason. We can't continue to outperform the market based on the opportunities we see with the new products that we're releasing and the early demonstrations we've talked about, those would be SAM expansion opportunities for us.

    我就知道問題還有另一部分。很遺憾,我們目前還沒有準備好談 2027 年。不過,我們看不出有任何理由使我們無法基於我們所看到的新產品機會,以及我們談到的早期展示,持續跑贏市場;這些對我們而言會是 SAM 擴張的機會。

  • So revenue gains, even if the market is flat, there would be an upside for us as well as the ongoing demand we're seeing for the Dragonfly platforms in advanced packaging, our metrology suite and the advanced nodes, some incremental opportunities perhaps with the Rigaku partnership. There are several areas that would indicate that we have opportunities to outperform in 2027.

    因此,即使市場持平,我們在營收成長上仍可能有上行空間;再加上我們在先進封裝領域看到的 Dragonfly 平台持續需求、我們的量測(metrology)產品組合與先進製程節點,以及與 Rigaku 合作夥伴關係可能帶來的一些增量機會。有幾個面向都顯示我們在 2027 年有機會跑贏市場。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Crawford Clarke, Jefferies.

    Crawford Clarke,Jefferies。

  • Crawford Clarke - Analyst

    Crawford Clarke - Analyst

  • I appreciate it. And I think -- I'm not sure if this has been asked yet, but obviously, tremendous growth in the advanced node business, up 50% to a new record. Can you talk about how broad-based that was across maybe logic versus memory? And how much of it is new application wins for gate-all-around versus maybe a next-gen DRAM versus higher spend on existing tools.

    謝謝。我想——我不確定這是否已經有人問過,但顯然先進製程節點業務大幅成長,成長 50% 並創下新高。你能談談這在邏輯(logic)與記憶體(memory)之間的分布有多廣泛嗎?以及其中有多少來自於針對環繞閘極(gate-all-around)的新應用拿下訂單,或是下一代 DRAM 的新應用,或是既有工具的更高支出?

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, great question. It's actually pretty broad-based. So we saw strong growth in NAND off of a small base, but still quite growth in NAND. We saw growth in DRAM. We saw growth in logic. We saw opportunities or growth in the adoption of the Atlas 5, but is even more so in the Atlas G6, which is really starting to differentiate itself with its much smaller spot, being able to measure with much tighter precision in the smaller area, this is giving customers opportunities to apply OCD to other parts of the wafers where they had to use test structures and in the street. So that's a big value proposition for our customers and it's starting to drive adoption.

    是的,這是個好問題。其實相當廣泛。我們看到 NAND 在較小基期上有強勁成長,但仍然是相當可觀的 NAND 成長。我們看到 DRAM 成長。我們看到邏輯成長。我們也看到 Atlas 5 的採用帶來的機會或成長,但更明顯的是 Atlas G6;它以更小的光斑開始展現差異化,能在更小區域以更高精度進行量測,這讓客戶有機會把 OCD 應用到晶圓的其他區域;過去他們必須使用測試結構並在街道區(street)進行。因此,這對客戶而言是很大的價值主張,並開始帶動採用。

  • And I mentioned on the -- in the prepared remarks that we added DRAM customers. So in addition to the gate-all-around or the logic customers we talked about last quarter. Now we have DRAM customers adopting the new technology.

    我也在——在事先準備的發言中提到,我們新增了 DRAM 客戶。因此,除了我們上季談到的環繞閘極或邏輯客戶之外,現在也有 DRAM 客戶在採用這項新技術。

  • Brian Roberts - Chief Financial Officer

    Brian Roberts - Chief Financial Officer

  • Just to add is back in the prepared remarks, I mentioned that memory was up 60% quarter-over-quarter and logic was north of 40%. So across both, you can see really, really strong performance.

    補充一下,在事先準備的發言中我提到,記憶體季對季成長 60%,而邏輯成長超過 40%。所以在兩者之間,你可以看到非常、非常強勁的表現。

  • Crawford Clarke - Analyst

    Crawford Clarke - Analyst

  • Got it. Super helpful. And then I'll just ask one more. I mean there's a ton of kind of stuff in the news about panel-level packaging. It feels like I get a news flash every day about something panel related. I think you guys attack this from maybe two different perspectives. I think you have the JetStep program or platform. But I think you also address it sort of from maybe another angle. If you could kind of help me better understand the opportunity there, that would be super helpful.

    了解。非常有幫助。那我再問一個。我的意思是,新聞上有很多關於面板級封裝(panel-level packaging)的消息。感覺我每天都會收到一則與面板相關的快訊。我想你們可能從兩個不同角度切入。我想你們有 JetStep 計畫或平台。但我想你們也從另一個角度來切入。如果你能幫我更好地理解那裡的機會,會非常有幫助。

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So in fact, we attack the panel market from three perspectives. One is the JetStep for large panels. So if we look at the panel market, it's really in two sort of bifurcations. One is large panels. So large square substrates, say 500 by 500 and above, 500-millimeter by 500-millimeter and above.

    是的。事實上,我們從三個角度切入面板市場。其一是用於大型面板的 JetStep。如果我們看面板市場,它大致可分成兩個分支。一個是大型面板。也就是大型方形基板,例如 500 乘 500 以上,500 毫米乘 500 毫米及以上。

  • The other is driven through TSMC, and that's their CoPoS, and that's 310 x 310 square panels. And then the CoPoS area, we're looking at inspection, metrology, essentially, a lot of the packaging technologies that they've adopted from us for process control in CoWoS are being applied to CoPoS.

    另一個是由台積電(TSMC)所驅動,也就是他們的 CoPoS,尺寸是 310 x 310 的方形面板。而在 CoPoS 這一塊,我們著眼於檢測(inspection)、量測(metrology);本質上,他們在 CoWoS 的製程控制上採用自我們的許多封裝技術,正在被應用到 CoPoS。

  • Now in the larger panels, we have the JetStep, which you mentioned, but we also have the Firefly, which is now adopting and integrating the Dragonfly G5 optics, so it has the most advanced optical platform as well as several of the metrology sensors that the Dragonfly is well known for. This is giving the panel market a suite that is capable of much more process control and hopefully unlocking yield improvements much faster than they were able to achieve when they were just using inspection at the final stage of a panel's fabrication.

    至於更大的面板,我們有你提到的 JetStep,但我們也有 Firefly;它現在正在採用並整合 Dragonfly G5 光學系統,因此具備最先進的光學平台,以及 Dragonfly 以之聞名的多種量測感測器。這讓面板市場擁有一套能進行更多製程控制的解決方案,並希望能比過去更快解鎖良率改善;因為過去他們只在面板製造的最後階段使用檢測。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vedvati Shrotre, Evercore ISI.

    Vedvati Shrotre,Evercore ISI。

  • Vedvati Shrotre - Equity Analyst

    Vedvati Shrotre - Equity Analyst

  • So Mike, on the advanced node strength you're seeing and even on the packaging strength you're seeing, could you give some color on how this splits out foundry logic versus memory for advanced node and HBM versus non-HBM, I guess, on advanced packaging piece?

    Mike,針對你看到的先進製程節點強勁表現,以及你看到的封裝強勁表現,你能否提供一些細節,說明先進製程節點中晶圓代工邏輯(foundry logic)與記憶體的拆分?以及在先進封裝部分,HBM 與非 HBM 的拆分?

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'll take that one. So within advanced node -- sorry. From a memory perspective or advanced nodes, memory is about 60% of where we were in Q2, and logic was about 40%, and the growth rate just happened to kind of be similar. On the AP side, I think as we've talked about, both 2.5D and HBM have both been relatively the same. So pretty consistent growth across both over both the whole first half of the year, to be honest.

    我來回答這題。在先進製程節點——抱歉。從記憶體或先進製程節點的角度來看,記憶體約占我們第二季的 60%,邏輯約占 40%,而成長率剛好也大致相近。在先進封裝(AP)方面,我想如同我們談過的,2.5D 與 HBM 兩者的表現相對接近。坦白說,整個上半年兩者都呈現相當一致的成長。

  • Vedvati Shrotre - Equity Analyst

    Vedvati Shrotre - Equity Analyst

  • And does that stay the same in second half as well when we think about the total year?

    那在下半年、以全年來看,這個比例也會維持一樣嗎?

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think expectations wise at the moment, yes. I mean, HBM is continuing to be pretty strong. So it may take a little bit more, but both of them continue pretty much a similar pace.

    就目前的預期而言,是的。我的意思是,HBM 仍然相當強勁。所以它可能會多一些,但兩者基本上仍以相近的步調持續。

  • Vedvati Shrotre - Equity Analyst

    Vedvati Shrotre - Equity Analyst

  • And the other question I had was, we're kind of entering this time of unprecedented visibility you're seeing your backlog kind of keep on growing. How -- like does your visibility extend into second half '27 now? Is kind of that level of visibility you get from your customers?

    我還有另一個問題是,我們正進入一個你們所看到的前所未有的可視性時期,你們的在手訂單(backlog)似乎持續成長。那——例如你們的可視性現在是否已延伸到 2027 年下半年?這是否是你們從客戶那裡獲得的可視性水準?

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, visibility through discussions through planning cycles, things like this, yes, I think not a lot of the backlog is going to start extending into the second half of '27, but for sure, the discussions, like I mentioned, are constructive, and we're now in the process, starting the process of discussing VPAs and volume purchase agreements for 2027, which will further add to the visibility or confidence in 2027. And this is the normal cycle that we're in.

    是的,透過討論、規劃週期等方式所帶來的可視性,是的。我認為在手訂單本身不會有太多開始延伸到 2027 年下半年,但可以確定的是,如我提到的,相關討論是具建設性的;而我們現在也正開始討論 2027 年的 VPA(VPAs)與量購協議(volume purchase agreements),這將進一步提升 2027 年的可視性或信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Shane Brett, Morgan Stanley.

    Shane Brett,摩根士丹利。

  • Shane Brett - Analyst

    Shane Brett - Analyst

  • So my first question, I want to follow up on some of the earlier questions on the advanced node business. So that's growing north of 35% despite process control intensity in the industry not being as favorable just with quite a bit of 3-nanometer and 1c DRAM additions. And just ahead of peers. So is this outgrowth reflective of your portfolio being more memory skewed? Or are we capturing just incremental dollars related to the broadening of the leading-edge logic customer base?

    所以我的第一個問題,是想延續先前關於先進製程節點業務的一些提問。在產業的製程控制強度並不那麼有利的情況下——主要是因為新增了相當多的 3 奈米與 1c DRAM 產能——你們仍然成長超過 35%。而且領先同業。所以,這樣的超額成長是否反映你們的產品組合更偏向記憶體?或者我們只是因為領先邏輯客戶群擴大,而抓到一些增量的美元?

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's a good question. I don't think it's because we're more memory skewed. Historically, we've kind of been pretty balanced between DRAM, logic and NAND, and of course, if you add them up, if it's roughly a third, a third, a third. Then we started to see a shift more towards 50/50, 50% logic, 50% memory, and then that will fluctuate around there. So I don't think that that explains it so much.

    這是個好問題。我不認為是因為我們更偏向記憶體。歷史上,我們在 DRAM、邏輯與 NAND 之間一直相當均衡,當然,如果把它們加總,大致就是三分之一、三分之一、三分之一。之後我們開始看到更偏向 50/50 的轉變,也就是 50% 邏輯、50% 記憶體,然後會在那附近波動。所以我不認為這能夠充分解釋。

  • I would say that the combination of us adding new products, getting those new products adopted and growing. That's the Iris films, that's the integrated metrology. That's expanding our opportunities for growth even at -- or wallet share for every, let's say, dollars tied to a 10,000 wafer start expansion, which has always been a part of our core strategy is to leverage the technology, provide new solutions, expand our SAM within the customers that we serve.

    我會說,這是我們推出新產品、讓這些新產品被採用並持續成長的綜合作用。包括 Iris 薄膜(films),也包括整合式量測(integrated metrology)。這些都在擴大我們的成長機會——甚至是每一筆、比方說,與 10,000 片晶圓起始(wafer start)擴產所綁定的每一美元所能取得的錢包份額(wallet share)。這一直是我們核心策略的一部分:運用技術、提供新解決方案,並在我們服務的客戶中擴大我們的 SAM。

  • Shane Brett - Analyst

    Shane Brett - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. And I have a little bit of a mixed question as well for advanced packaging. So how should I think about your relative share between CoWoS, SOIC and HBM? And I'm asking this because this year is quite a bit CoWoS intensive, but with next year being a bit more HBM and SOIC, is that mix shift kind of a tailwind or a headwind for you? Like is there one area where you prefer to grow rather than another?

    了解。這很有幫助。我也有一個關於先進封裝的綜合性問題。所以我該如何看待你們在 CoWoS、SOIC 與 HBM 之間的相對市占?我之所以這樣問,是因為今年 CoWoS 的比重相當高,但明年會更偏向 HBM 與 SOIC;這樣的組合轉移對你們而言是順風還是逆風?例如,有沒有某一個領域是你們更偏好成長、而不是另一個?

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but generally, our strategy and focus is to broadly serve the value chain. So like we mentioned today on silicon photonics, we're already focused on engaging in these new areas of potential growth, these new waves of growth. SOIC is one of the areas that the Dragonfly G5 with its higher resolution has some new opportunities in. So that would be part of the upside potential that we would be looking at. I think what else would you say?

    我手邊沒有精確數字,但整體而言,我們的策略與重點是廣泛服務整個價值鏈。所以就像我們今天提到的矽光子(silicon photonics),我們已經聚焦於參與這些新的潛在成長領域、這些新的成長浪潮。SOIC 是其中一個領域,Dragonfly G5 以其更高解析度帶來一些新的機會。因此,這會是我們所關注的上行潛力的一部分。你還會補充什麼?

  • You mentioned packaging. Yes. So I think that's it. I don't know if there's one -- let's put it this way. We're not expecting, based on the feedback we're getting from customers on where their growth is and what tools they need us to be preparing for, we're not expecting any kind of headwinds going into next year. We're expecting quite nice tailwinds.

    你提到封裝。是的。我想就是這樣。我不確定是否有哪一個——換句話說,根據我們從客戶那裡得到的回饋:他們的成長在哪裡、以及他們需要我們準備哪些工具,我們並不預期明年會有任何逆風。我們預期會有相當不錯的順風。

  • Shane Brett - Analyst

    Shane Brett - Analyst

  • Got it. So kind of like an end market agnostic then?

    了解。所以有點像是不特定終端市場(end market agnostic)?

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We try to be, yes.

    我們盡量做到,是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Nazerke Baimukan, Freedom Broker.

    (接線員指示) Nazerke Baimukan,Freedom Broker。

  • Nazerke Baimukan - Equity Analyst

    Nazerke Baimukan - Equity Analyst

  • Congratulations on the strong results, and -- so you highlighted silicon photonics as a new growth opportunity, could you please explain which Onto products are being used and how you expect demand to scale as customers move into volume production.

    恭喜你們交出強勁的業績,另外——你們強調矽光子是一個新的成長機會,能否請你們說明 Onto 哪些產品正在被使用,以及當客戶進入量產時,你們預期需求會如何擴大。

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, good question. It's both inspection and metrology, where we're seeing the traction. I think the biggest, let's say, value or traction within those markets is the inspection because it has some integrated -- some metrology built into it.

    是的,好問題。我們看到的動能同時來自檢測(inspection)與量測(metrology)。我認為在那些市場中最大的價值或動能是在檢測,因為它整合了——內建了一些量測功能。

  • But then for very specific or more precise metrology, films metrology and front-end metrology, we're seeing opportunities for the Iris films. So both are in play. And as that market scales, we would expect to see a fairly linear ramp of the process control technology with the volume. And as we mentioned, we're expecting that SAM to grow to about $500 million or so by the end of the decade. So in the next four years.

    但對於非常特定或更精準的量測——薄膜量測(films metrology)與前段量測(front-end metrology)——我們看到 Iris 薄膜有機會。所以兩者都在發揮作用。而隨著該市場擴大,我們預期製程控制技術會隨著產量呈現相當線性的爬坡。並且如我們所提到的,我們預期到本十年末,該 SAM 會成長到約 5 億美元左右。也就是在接下來四年內。

  • Nazerke Baimukan - Equity Analyst

    Nazerke Baimukan - Equity Analyst

  • And a follow-up question regarding advanced packaging. Could you please clarify the updated stand-alone growth outlook for advanced packaging. Looking into 2027, do you expect growth to remain elevated? Or should we expect some moderation after the strong capacity buildout this year?

    另外一個關於先進封裝的追問。能否請你們釐清先進封裝更新後的獨立(stand-alone)成長展望。展望到 2027 年,你們預期成長仍會維持在較高水準嗎?還是我們應該預期在今年強勁的產能擴建之後會有所降溫?

  • Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Michael Plisinski - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good question. What we said in the prepared remarks is we expect advanced packaging to grow at least 80% this year. So we expect that to grow again into next year. And so we're not seeing any signs of overcapacity. We're actually seeing -- we're hearing about constraints and pressure from our customers' customers on ramping more capacity, releasing more capacity. So we're fully expecting additional growth into next year through next year.

    好問題。我們在事先準備的講稿中提到,我們預期先進封裝今年至少成長 80%。因此我們預期明年也會再成長。所以我們沒有看到任何產能過剩的跡象。實際上,我們看到——我們聽到的是限制與壓力,來自我們客戶的客戶,要求加速擴充更多產能、釋出更多產能。因此我們完全預期明年會有額外成長,並延續到明年全年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And at this time, we have no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back to Sidney Ho for any additional or closing remarks.

    目前我們沒有其他問題。我現在想把電話交回給 Sidney Ho,請他做任何補充或結語。

  • Sidney Ho - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Sidney Ho - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Rachel. We will be participating in a number of investor conferences throughout the quarter. We look forward to seeing many of you there. A replay of the call today will be available on our website at approximately 7:30 Eastern Time this evening. We'd like to thank you for your continued interest in Onto Innovation.

    謝謝,Rachel。本季我們將參加多場投資人會議。期待在那裡見到各位中的許多人。今天電話會議的重播將於今晚美東時間約 7:30 在我們的網站上提供。感謝各位持續關注 Onto Innovation。

  • Rachel, please conclude the call.

    Rachel,請結束本次電話會議。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。