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Operator
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Onto Innovation Fourth Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would turn the conference over to Mike Sheaffer, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
女士們、先生們,大家好!歡迎參加 Onto Innovation 第四季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。現在,我將把會議交給投資者關係部門的 Mike Sheaffer。請開始。
Michael Sheaffer - Senior Director of IR, Corporate Communications & Marketing Research
Michael Sheaffer - Senior Director of IR, Corporate Communications & Marketing Research
Thank you, Keith, and good afternoon, everyone.
謝謝你,基思,大家下午好。
Onto Innovation issued its 2021 fourth quarter and full year financial results this afternoon shortly after the market closed. If you have not received a copy of the release, please refer to the company's website, where a copy of the release is posted. Joining us on the call today are Michael Plisinski, Chief Executive Officer; and Steven Roth, Chief Financial Officer.
Onto Innovation 於今天下午股市收盤後不久發布了其 2021 年第四季度及全年財務業績。如果您尚未收到該新聞稿,請造訪本公司網站,新聞稿已發佈於此。今天參加電話會議的有執行長 Michael Plisinski 和財務長 Steven Roth。
As always, I need to remind you of the safe harbor regulations. Any matters today that are not historical facts, especially comments regarding the company's future plans, products, objectives, forecasts and expected performance, consist of forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These estimates, whether expressed or implied, are based currently on information and the company's best judgment at this time. Within these is a wide range of assumptions that the company believes to be reasonable.
像往常一樣,我需要提醒您注意安全港規定。今天任何非歷史事實的事項,尤其是關於公司未來計劃、產品、目標、預測和預期業績的評論,均構成《私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些估計,無論明示或暗示,均基於當前資訊和公司的最佳判斷。其中包含公司認為合理的各種假設。
However, it must be recognized that these statements are subject to a range of uncertainties that can cause actual results to vary materially. Thus, the company cautions that these statements are no guarantees of future performance. Risk factors that may impact Onto Innovation's results are currently described in Onto Innovation's Form 10-K report for the year ended December 2020 as well as other quarterly filings with the SEC. Onto Innovation does not update forward-looking statements and expressly disclaims any obligation to do so.
然而,必須認識到,這些陳述受一系列不確定因素的影響,可能導致實際結果有重大差異。因此,公司提醒,這些陳述並非未來業績的保證。目前,可能影響 Onto Innovation 業績的風險因素已在 Onto Innovation 截至 2020 年 12 月的 10-K 表格報告以及向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的其他季度文件中進行了描述。 Onto Innovation 不會更新前瞻性陳述,並明確表示不承擔任何更新義務。
Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. As a reminder, a detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings release.
除非另有說明,今天討論的財務業績將以非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務數據為基礎。小提醒:GAAP 和非 GAAP 業績的詳細對帳表可在今天的財報中找到。
I will now go ahead and turn the call over to Mike Plisinski. Mike?
我現在將電話轉給 Mike Plisinski。 Mike?
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Thanks, Mike. Good afternoon, and a Happy New Year to everyone. We're pleased to start the year off by reporting fourth quarter revenue exceeded the high end of our guidance, growing 12% over the third quarter and resulting in our equipment business growing nearly 50% for the year. This was our fifth straight quarter of revenue growth, and it was our eighth consecutive quarter of increasing operating margins.
謝謝,麥克。下午好,祝大家新年快樂。我們很高興地宣布,我們第四季的營收超出了預期上限,環比第三季成長了12%,這使得我們的設備業務全年成長了近50%。這是我們連續第五個季度實現營收成長,也是我們連續第八個季度實現營業利潤率成長。
The Onto team has done a great job unlocking operational synergies even in this environment of rapid expansion and disruptions from the pandemic and global supply chains. Despite these ongoing challenges, we expect to maintain our growth momentum into the new year with projections for first quarter revenue up slightly at the low end and up approximately 7% at the high end of our guidance range.
即使在快速擴張、疫情和全球供應鏈中斷的環境下,Onto 團隊仍出色地釋放了營運綜效。儘管面臨持續挑戰,我們仍預期新的一年將維持成長勢頭,第一季營收預期下限略有成長,上限約成長 7%。
But before looking to 2022, let's begin with a few highlights from the fourth quarter, starting with the advanced packaging and specialty device markets, which grew by a very healthy 21% over the prior quarter.
但在展望 2022 年之前,讓我們先來看看第四季的一些亮點,首先是先進封裝和專用設備市場,該市場比上一季實現了 21% 的健康成長。
Revenue from compound semiconductor and RF manufacturers increased by 140% in the quarter and represented roughly 40% of total revenue from our specialty and packaging customers in the quarter. Our powerful combination of process control technology and process analysis software is delivering higher levels of productivity to our customers and contributed to this strong demand. As an example, a recent customer leveraged our integrated solutions to increase factory output by an estimated 10%.
本季度,來自化合物半導體和射頻 (RF) 製造商的收入成長了 140%,約占我們本季來自特種製程和封裝客戶總收入的 40%。我們強大的製程控制技術和製程分析軟體組合,為客戶帶來了更高的生產力,並促進了強勁的需求。例如,最近有一位客戶利用我們的整合解決方案,將工廠產量提高了約 10%。
We see similar opportunities to increase productivity for our advanced packaging customers, especially in heterogeneous packaging. For example, by integrating our complementary inspection, lithography and software technologies into a solution we call StepFAST, we simultaneously improved productivity and yields.
我們看到了類似的提升先進封裝客戶生產力的機會,尤其是在異質封裝領域。例如,透過將我們互補的檢測、光刻和軟體技術整合到名為 StepFAST 的解決方案中,我們同時提高了生產力和良率。
In the fourth quarter, we delivered our third StepFAST solution to a leading supplier of panel level fan-out technology used for packaging high-performance 5G devices. We expect to uncover additional opportunities to provide productivity solutions to our JetStep X500 customers as we begin to deliver against our $100 million of backlog.
第四季度,我們向一家領先的面板級扇出技術供應商交付了第三套StepFAST解決方案,該技術用於封裝高效能5G設備。隨著我們開始交付1億美元的積壓訂單,我們期待發現更多機會,為JetStep X500客戶提供生產力解決方案。
In parallel to heterogeneous packaging, we see a universal acceleration of interconnect strengths creating demand for more precise metrology and higher-resolution inspection systems. The Dragonfly platform meets these new industry demands by providing accurate 3D metrology, Clearfind reliability and submicron inspection resolution in a single system. In addition, we leverage our software to automate the analysis of these data streams to provide not just critical data but critical decisions. As a result, revenue for our Dragonfly platform increased 67% over the prior year.
除了異構封裝之外,我們看到互連強度的普遍提升,這催生了對更精確計量和更高解析度檢測系統的需求。 Dragonfly 平台透過在單一系統中提供精確的 3D 計量、Clearfind 可靠性和亞微米檢測分辨率,滿足了這些新的產業需求。此外,我們利用軟體自動分析這些數據流,不僅提供關鍵數據,還提供關鍵決策。因此,Dragonfly 平台的營收比前一年成長了 67%。
Turning to our advanced nodes customers. Revenue from this market increased 6%, resulting in another quarterly record. Our Atlas platform is proving to be a powerful base for optical metrology. It can be configured to measure everything, from the most advanced 3D transistor structures, down to common planar films.
談到我們的先進節點客戶。該市場的營收成長了6%,再創季度新高。事實證明,我們的Atlas平台是光學計量的強大基礎。它可以配置用於測量各種材料,從最先進的3D電晶體結構到常見的平面薄膜。
We see increasing capital intensity for the Atlas platform, especially in advanced logic, where we provide measurement sensitivity required for complex transistor structures such as advanced FinFET and gate all around at speeds, orders of magnitude, faster than X-ray systems. In fact, 60% of our advanced logic revenue in the quarter was to support metrology for the 3-nanometer node.
我們看到Atlas平台的資本密集度不斷提升,尤其是在先進邏輯領域。我們能夠提供複雜電晶體結構(例如先進的FinFET和閘極)所需的測量靈敏度,其速度比X射線系統快幾個數量級。事實上,本季我們先進邏輯收入的60%用於支援3奈米節點的計量。
Metrology for DRAM memory represented the strongest growth in the quarter, with revenue from several large capacity expansions in Asia. The combination of our Atlas platform and AI-Diffract software delivers improvements in sensitivity and modeling times by again aggregating data from multiple sources.
DRAM 記憶體計量業務在本季實現了最強勁的成長,其收入主要來自亞洲的幾項大規模產能擴張。我們的 Atlas 平台與 AI-Diffract 軟體的結合,透過再次聚合來自多個來源的數據,提升了靈敏度並縮短了建模時間。
We've shown this hybrid metrology solution provides a fivefold increase in sensitivity for our integrated metrology platform, resulting in a 74% increase in integrated metrology revenue for the advanced nodes in 2021. With several memory customers forecasting additional expansions in 2022, we're optimistic that this growth will continue into the new year.
我們已經證明,這種混合計量解決方案使我們的整合計量平台的靈敏度提高了五倍,從而使 2021 年先進節點的整合計量收入增加了 74%。由於一些記憶體客戶預測 2022 年將進一步擴展,我們樂觀地認為這種成長將持續到新的一年。
Before we discuss our outlook for 2022, I will turn the call over to Steve to review our financial highlights for the quarter. Steve?
在我們討論 2022 年的展望之前,我將把電話轉給史蒂夫,讓他回顧本季的財務亮點。史蒂夫?
Steven R. Roth - Senior VP of Finance & Administration and CFO
Steven R. Roth - Senior VP of Finance & Administration and CFO
Thanks, Mike, and good afternoon, everyone. I will start by providing some details on our Q4 results and then follow with our guidance for the first quarter of 2022. As Mike mentioned, we had another record revenue quarter. In fact, we had several company financial records this quarter. Our fourth quarter revenue was $226 million, above the high end of guidance, up 12% over the last quarter and up 45% over the same period last year. The revenue growth was broad-based, with metrology, inspection and software all experiencing record revenue in the quarter.
謝謝,麥克,大家下午好。首先,我將詳細介紹我們的第四季業績,然後介紹我們對2022年第一季的預期。正如麥克所說,我們又一個季度的收入創下了紀錄。事實上,本季我們創造了多項公司財務記錄。第四季營收為2.26億美元,高於預期上限,季增12%,年增45%。營收成長範圍廣泛,計量、檢測和軟體業務均在本季創下了歷史新高。
Breaking down the revenue by market. 48% of the sales were in our specialty device and advanced packaging markets, which continued its strength from the previous quarter and increased 21%. That increase was driven by RF, MEMS and power customers as well as growth from the OSATs. The advanced node markets represented 33% of sales, with strong memory sales being partially offset by weaker logic foundry sales in the quarter.
按市場細分收入。 48% 的銷售額來自我們的特種裝置和先進封裝市場,這兩個市場延續了上一季的強勁勢頭,成長了 21%。這一成長主要得益於射頻 (RF)、微機電系統 (MEMS) 和電源客戶以及 OSAT 廠商的成長。先進節點市場佔銷售額的 33%,強勁的記憶體銷售部分被本季邏輯代工銷售的疲軟所抵消。
Finally, software and services increased slightly and represented 19% of revenue. We continue to maintain strong gross margins at 55% in both the third and fourth quarters. Higher revenues, including stronger software sales, were offset by supply chain and logistic cost increases in the quarter. We continue to work on product margin improvement programs and supply sourcing programs to mitigate the impact from the supply chain on our gross margin.
最後,軟體和服務業務小幅成長,佔總收入的19%。我們在第三季和第四季持續維持55%的強勁毛利率。包括軟體銷售成長在內的營收成長被本季供應鏈和物流成本的增加所抵銷。我們將繼續致力於產品利潤率提升計劃和供應採購計劃,以減輕供應鏈對毛利率的影響。
The fourth quarter operating expenses was $54.9 million, an increase of $3.3 million from $51.6 million in the third quarter. The increase is primarily due to onboarding of new headcount to support the growth we're experiencing and variable compensation plan adjustments.
第四季營運費用為5,490萬美元,較第三季的5,160萬美元增加330萬美元。成長主要由於為支持公司業務成長而引入新員工,以及浮動薪酬計畫的調整。
We continued our quarterly operating margin improvements each quarter since the merger with a record fourth quarter operating margin of 31% and well within our published long-term operating model on a quarterly run rate basis. We also published a new long-term operating model just after the quarter closed, with revenue targets of $1 billion to $1.4 billion, operating margins of 31% to 36% in those revenue ranges and earnings power north of $8 per share at the high end of that model.
自合併以來,我們每季的營業利潤率都持續提升,第四季營業利潤率創下31%的紀錄,並且遠超過我們公佈的長期營運模式(按季度運行率計算)。本季結束後,我們也發布了新的長期營運模式,收入目標為10億美元至14億美元,在此範圍內,營業利潤率應為31%至36%,而在該模式的高端,盈利能力將超過每股8美元。
Net income increased in the fourth quarter and was $61.2 million or $1.23 per share and above the high end of guidance. In the third quarter, we reported net income of $48.7 million or $0.98 per share.
第四季淨利成長,達6,120萬美元,即每股1.23美元,高於預期上限。第三季度,我們報告淨利潤為4870萬美元,即每股0.98美元。
Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with a cash position of $511 million, up $50 million from Q3. Our free cash flow for Q4 was $51 million or 23% of revenue. And for the year, we generated $163 million of free cash flow. Accounts receivable decreased to $177 million in the quarter, and our days sales outstanding declined to 72 days. Our inventory increased to $243 million in the quarter on higher planned sales for 2022 and continued acceleration of inventory deliveries as a hedge against our supply chain -- against supply chain disruptions.
再來看看資產負債表。本季末,我們的現金狀況為5.11億美元,較第三季增加5,000萬美元。第四季的自由現金流為5,100萬美元,佔營收的23%。全年自由現金流為1.63億美元。應收帳款本季降至1.77億美元,未收帳款週轉天數降至72天。由於2022年計畫銷售額增加,以及為對沖供應鏈中斷風險而持續加快庫存交付,我們的庫存在本季增至2.43億美元。
Now turning to the first quarter guidance. We currently expect revenue to increase from the fourth quarter and be in the range of $226 million to $240 million. As noted last quarter, we currently have several of our new lithography systems which have shipped or are shipping in Q1, with the revenue being deferred, awaiting acceptance from the customer. It is currently unclear whether those systems will be accepted by the end of the quarter and recognized as revenue. The high end of our revenue guidance anticipates inclusion of those lithography systems.
現在談談第一季的業績指引。我們目前預計營收將從第四季起有所成長,達到2.26億美元至2.4億美元。正如上個季度所述,我們目前有幾套新的光刻系統已發貨或正在第一季發貨,這些收入將被遞延,等待客戶驗收。目前尚不清楚這些系統是否會在本季末被驗收並確認為收入。我們收入指引的上限是預期將這些光刻系統納入其中。
Earnings per share in the revenue range are expected to be between $1.13 and $1.20 per diluted share and are partially affected by a reset of our effective tax rate for 2022. We also expect our gross margins to be between 53.5% and 55.5%. As we previously discussed, our new lithography systems will put some pressure on our gross margins during 2022 due to manufacturing inefficiencies as we ramp our production throughout the year.
預計每股收益在1.13美元至1.20美元之間,部分受2022年有效稅率調整的影響。我們也預計毛利率在53.5%至55.5%之間。正如我們之前所討論的,由於製造效率低下,隨著我們全年產量的提升,新的光刻系統將在2022年對我們的毛利率造成一些壓力。
For operating expenses, we are aggressively hiring to support our growth and typically have operating expense -- higher operating expenses in the first quarter as payroll taxes and other compensation plans reset. Therefore, we're currently anticipating our operating expenses will increase in the first quarter and be in the range of $55.5 million to $57.5 million.
至於營運費用,我們正在積極招聘以支持業務成長,由於工資稅和其他薪酬計劃的調整,第一季的營運費用通常會增加。因此,我們目前預計第一季的營運費用將有所增加,預計在5,550萬美元至5,750萬美元之間。
And with that, I'll turn the call back to Mike for additional insight into Q1 and the remainder of 2022. Mike?
說完這些,我將把電話轉回給麥克,以進一步了解第一季和 2022 年剩餘時間的情況。麥克?
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Thank you, Steve. Looking broadly at the industry, we see a growing number of end markets being enabled by advances in semiconductor technology for wireless communication, high-performance compute, power devices and sensing. These new end markets are simultaneously increasing the need for additional chip capacity as well as advances in manufacturing process technology to make future devices faster, smaller and greener.
謝謝,史蒂夫。縱觀整個產業,我們看到越來越多的終端市場正受益於半導體技術的進步,這些技術應用於無線通訊、高效能運算、功率元件和感測領域。這些新的終端市場同時增加了對晶片產能的需求,以及製造製程技術的進步,以使未來的設備更快、更小、更環保。
At Onto Innovation, we are collaborating closely with leaders across the semiconductor value chain to deliver the manufacturing solutions needed to accelerate their road maps and fulfill expanding end market demand. These partnerships strengthen our ability to serve core markets while also opening the door to new markets. We estimate an increase of $650 million in new addressable markets, spanning substrate, device and packaging. This should provide additional tailwinds independent of projected industry growth over the next several years.
在 Onto Innovation,我們正與半導體價值鏈上的領先企業緊密合作,提供所需的製造解決方案,以加速其發展路線圖並滿足不斷增長的終端市場需求。這些合作關係增強了我們服務核心市場的能力,同時也打開了通往新市場的大門。我們預計,涵蓋基板、裝置和封裝領域的新目標市場將增加 6.5 億美元。這將為未來幾年的行業成長帶來額外的推動力,即使未來幾年的行業成長預期保持不變。
Zooming in to the first quarter guidance Steve just outlined, we project revenue from memory customers in both DRAM and NAND will increase by over 50% in the quarter. As we mentioned earlier, our integrated suite of metrology is providing important value to our customers. As an example, we're contributing to yield improvement at one of our largest 3D NAND customers by aggregating Atlas OCD with integrated and films metrology data. This aggregation is providing a more complete view of deposition, etch and CMP process steps, again at speeds suited for high-volume production. For the year, we see NAND continuing to be strong, with capacity expansions for 128 to 176 layer NAND devices. We also see technology ramps to 192 and above increasing during the year.
縱觀史蒂夫剛剛概述的第一季業績指引,我們預計本季來自 DRAM 和 NAND 記憶體客戶的營收將成長 50% 以上。正如我們之前提到的,我們的整合計量套件正在為客戶提供重要的價值。例如,我們透過將 Atlas OCD 與整合和薄膜計量資料進行聚合,為我們最大的 3D NAND 客戶之一的良率提升做出了貢獻。這種聚合提供了沉積、蝕刻和 CMP 製程步驟的更完整視圖,同樣以適合大量生產的速度進行。就今年而言,我們預計 NAND 將繼續保持強勁勢頭,128 層至 176 層 NAND 設備的產能將擴大。我們也看到,年內技術將逐步朝向 192 樓及以上發展。
We expect similar strong demand from several DRAM customer expansions, which we also believe will remain at elevated levels through the year. The strength in DRAM memory this year is being driven by the positive impact the work-from-home trend is having on cloud and server markets as well as the growing number of memory-hungry AI applications. Simultaneously, continued 5G handset and device adoption creates a 2x increase in NAND demand over prior generations, and the increase in a mobile workforce is pushing up demand for reliable solid-state drives.
我們預計,多家 DRAM 客戶也將迎來類似的強勁需求,並相信這些需求將在今年全年保持在高位。今年 DRAM 記憶體的強勁成長得益於居家辦公趨勢對雲端和伺服器市場的正面影響,以及日益增長的記憶體密集型 AI 應用。同時,5G 手機和裝置的持續普及使得 NAND 需求較前幾代產品成長了兩倍,而行動辦公室人員的增加也推高了對可靠固態硬碟的需求。
Within our specialty device and advanced packaging markets, we expect to see demand for our advanced packaging solutions grow by over 40%, primarily from the top IDMs. In addition, we see solid traction in the advanced image sensor market, with revenue in the first quarter from 3 leading customers and 6 manufacturing sites. We do see a reduction in spending in the first quarter from advanced logic and compound semiconductor manufacturers after each contributed so strongly last quarter.
在我們的專用元件和先進封裝市場,我們預期先進封裝解決方案的需求將成長40%以上,主要來自頂級IDM廠商。此外,我們看到先進影像感測器市場成長強勁,第一季來自3家主要客戶和6個生產基地的收入。我們確實看到先進邏輯和化合物半導體製造商在第一季的支出有所減少,而它們在上一季的貢獻都非常強勁。
Our positive outlook for the first quarter reflects our best understanding of the risks presented by global supply chain shortages and COVID. So far, the Onto team has been managing admirably through the unpredictable nature of these challenges. However, we are certainly not immune to these challenges, and so they remain an ongoing risk. We expect this uncertainty, especially in the supply chain, will continue to be a factor through at least the first half of 2022 and possibly the entire year.
我們對第一季的樂觀展望反映了我們對全球供應鏈短缺和新冠疫情帶來的風險的最佳理解。到目前為止,Onto 團隊出色地應對了這些挑戰的不可預測性。然而,我們當然無法免受這些挑戰的影響,因此它們仍然是一個持續存在的風險。我們預計,這種不確定性,尤其是在供應鏈方面,至少在 2022 年上半年,甚至可能全年,仍將持續存在。
However, if we look more broadly at the year, we see demand across several end markets continues to be robust. In response, industry estimates for semiconductor equipment spending continue to increase across all of the markets we serve. As a result, it appears 2022 will be another double-digit growth year for the industry. And with the solid demand we see today for our products in our core markets and from new served markets, we feel we are well positioned to outperform industry growth.
然而,如果我們更廣泛地審視今年,我們會發現多個終端市場的需求持續強勁。受此影響,我們服務的所有市場的半導體設備支出產業預估均持續成長。因此,2022年有望成為該產業又一個兩位數成長的年份。鑑於我們目前在核心市場和新興市場看到的強勁產品需求,我們認為自己已做好準備,能夠超越產業成長。
With that, we'll now open the call for your questions. Keith?
現在,我們將開始回答大家的提問。基思?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Craig Ellis with B. Riley Securities.
(操作員指示)我們將回答 B. Riley Securities 的 Craig Ellis 提出的第一個問題。
Craig Andrew Ellis - Senior MD & Director of Research
Craig Andrew Ellis - Senior MD & Director of Research
And congratulations on the very strong performance in the quarter and the outlook, guys. I wanted to start just understanding a little bit more about panel litho, really a 2-part question. I believe there's $100 million in backlog there. And if you could provide any color on the pacing of how that backlog might ship through '22 and '23, it would be helpful.
各位,恭喜你們本季的強勁表現和良好的前景。我想先稍微了解一下面板光刻業務,這個問題可以分成兩個部分。我相信那裡有1億美元的積壓訂單。如果您能透露這些積壓訂單在2022年和2023年的出貨速度,那將會很有幫助。
And then Steve, with the commentary on gross margin in the near term being impacted by rev rec of that product in a 53% to 55% range, the question is, is that impact something that's in the initial part of the manufacturing ramp? Or is that something that would persist through the period where we have the $100 million in backlog?
然後,史蒂夫,鑑於近期毛利率會受到該產品53%至55%左右的銷售收入影響,問題是,這種影響是在產能提升初期產生的嗎?還是會持續到我們積壓1億美元訂單的期間?
Steven R. Roth - Senior VP of Finance & Administration and CFO
Steven R. Roth - Senior VP of Finance & Administration and CFO
So Craig, I'll get to answer that one first. Yes. So I think we're going to see the manufacturing impact throughout the year. I mean we're not shipping a lot of systems. We're going to ship only several couple of systems each quarter. And so that $100 million, as we said, goes through 2022 and through 2023, I would say, maybe a little less than half of it going this year and then going into 2023. And I think some of it might be going into 2024 now.
克雷格,我先來回答這個問題。是的。所以我認為我們將在全年看到製造方面的影響。我的意思是,我們不會出貨很多系統。我們每季只會出貨幾個系統。所以,正如我們所說,這1億美元會花到2022年和2023年,我想說,可能只有不到一半會花到今年,然後花到2023年。我認為現在,其中一部分可能會花到2024年。
The margin thing, as we ramp, I think, is going to be a kind of a full year event in 2022. I mean we'll obviously see some efficiencies as they get better at building the systems as well as -- that's the manufacturing side of it as well as we continue to obviously work on cost-downs from the engineering side and quantity buys and things like that as we grow. So I think it's going to be for the -- a pretty good impact throughout 2022 and then you'll see improving in 2023 the impact of the litho business on our business.
隨著我們產能的提升,我認為利潤率在2022年會成為全年的焦點。我的意思是,隨著他們在系統建置方面做得越來越好,效率也會明顯提高——這是製造方面的問題。隨著業務的成長,我們顯然會繼續致力於從工程方面降低成本,以及批量採購等等。所以我認為這將在2022年產生相當好的影響,然後你會看到光刻業務對我們業務的影響在2023年有所改善。
Craig Andrew Ellis - Senior MD & Director of Research
Craig Andrew Ellis - Senior MD & Director of Research
Got it. And then combining that with a longer-term question related to the target model, and I'm not sure if this is better for you or for Mike, but with the target models, $1 billion, $1.2 billion and $1.4 billion points, were those anchored either in points in time or specific levels of WFE?
明白了。然後結合一個與目標模型相關的長期問題,我不確定這對你還是對Mike更有利,但對於目標模型,10億美元、12億美元和14億美元的點位,它們是錨定在時間點還是WFE的特定水平上?
How should we think about the way the executive team and the broader Onto team is looking at some of the underlying drivers to attaining those different levels and over which time period?
我們應該如何看待執行團隊和更廣泛的 Onto 團隊正在研究實現這些不同水平的一些潛在驅動因素以及在哪個時間段內實現這些不同水平?
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Yes. So Craig, what we look at is pretty conservative estimates for WFE. So we look at industry growth, and we consider growth as well as potential contractions. But the bulk of the model is based on the tailwinds that we can create through SAM expansion, through new product introductions, through some of the solutions that we have, either recently introduced or in the pipeline, where we know where the customers' demand drivers are and what their needs will be. So our model is really a combination of the market, but mostly what we're trying to drive and have a little bit more control of, if that makes sense.
是的。 Craig,我們對WFE的預測相當保守。我們會關注產業成長,既考慮成長,也考慮潛在的收縮。但模型的主要部分是基於我們可以透過SAM擴張、新產品推出以及我們現有的一些解決方案(無論是最近推出的還是正在研發的)創造的順風,我們了解客戶的需求驅動因素以及他們的需求。因此,我們的模型實際上是市場因素的結合,但主要是我們試圖推動並控制的因素,如果這說得通的話。
And it's not based on time. If you want to look at timing, we don't have a set time, but you could guess that based on the last models, and we achieved that in this -- relatively quickly in this industry, kind of a 5-year time frame would be a reasonable one, plus or minus on either side, more to the [plan].
這不是基於時間的。如果你想看時間安排,我們沒有設定一個時間,但你可以根據最新的模型來猜測,而且我們在這個行業中相對較快地實現了這個目標,5年左右的時間框架比較合理,左右兩側都有可能出現偏差,這更符合[計劃]。
Craig Andrew Ellis - Senior MD & Director of Research
Craig Andrew Ellis - Senior MD & Director of Research
Yes. Yes. Well, certainly, the annualized level of the first quarter's earnings guide is making very robust progress towards the $1 billion model. So good for you. But clearly, there are some gives and takes with gross margin based on some of the things that Steve said about panel litho. Okay. Very helpful, guys. I appreciate it. And congratulations again. I'll hop back in the queue.
是的,是的。當然,第一季獲利預測的年化水準正朝著10億美元的目標穩步推進。這對你來說真是太好了。但顯然,根據史蒂夫之前提到的關於面板光刻技術的一些內容,毛利率會有一些調整。好的。非常有幫助,各位。非常感謝。再次恭喜你。我會重新加入討論。
Operator
Operator
We'll take our next question from Quinn Bolton with Needham.
我們將回答 Needham 的 Quinn Bolton 提出的下一個問題。
Nathaniel Quinn Bolton - Senior Analyst
Nathaniel Quinn Bolton - Senior Analyst
Let me echo my congratulations on the results and outlook. I guess in '21, you saw a number of product lines growing at rates well above the WFE industry, and it looks like you guys expect to do that again in 2022. Wondering if you might rank order for us, or if not rank order, just give us your thoughts on which segments of the business do you think will be the fastest-growing in 2022.
讓我再次祝賀你們所取得的成果和前景。我想在2021年,你們看到許多產品線的成長速度遠高於WFE產業,看起來你們預計2022年還會繼續維持這樣的動能。請問您能否為我們排序一下?如果不排序,請告訴我們您認為哪些業務板塊在2022年成長最快。
I mean it sounds like you've got good tailwinds in litho, you've got good tailwinds in advanced packaging, but also in metrology. So you're kind of hitting on a lot of cylinders. So how would you rank the growth drivers in '22?
我的意思是,聽起來你們在光刻、先進封裝和計量領域都獲得了良好的發展機會。所以你們的業績表現不錯。那麼,你們如何排列2022年的成長動力呢?
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
So Quinn, from a percentage basis, obviously, litho would have -- would be the top because it's starting from such a small base. So I'm going to put that to the side. From the core products, the metrology, the advanced node metrology products, we think, are going to have the strongest demand in support of the very strong demand we're seeing in the market and the share gain opportunities we see with some of the new products and the traction we see with the solution approach we're taking with the hybrid metrology, leveraging the AI-Diffract software.
Quinn,從百分比來看,顯然光刻技術會佔據首位,因為它的基數很小。所以我先把它放在一邊。從核心產品來看,我們認為計量、先進節點計量產品將擁有最強勁的需求,以支持我們在市場上看到的非常強勁的需求,以及我們在一些新產品中看到的份額增長機會,以及我們利用AI-Diffract軟體採用的混合計量解決方案方法所帶來的吸引力。
Not too far behind that, we see real strong demand for Dragonfly in the advanced packaging, and the advanced, primarily to support some of the initiatives that I mentioned on the call for much, much smaller interconnects, more dense interconnects, bumps starting to approach $500 million per wafer, and the need for not just inspection, but metrology and also that reliability path that we can do with the Clearfind technology that we have.
緊隨其後的是,我們看到先進封裝和先進技術對 Dragonfly 的需求非常強勁,主要是為了支持我在電話會議上提到的一些舉措,即更小、更密集的互連,凸點開始接近每片晶圓 5 億美元的成本,不僅需要檢查,還需要計量,以及我們可以利用我們擁有的 Clearfind 技術實現的可靠性路徑。
So there are several drivers on the Dragonfly platform, including the CIS, which we've seen some really nice traction in the last 2 quarters. So Dragonfly would probably be the -- and advanced packaging will probably be the next.
Dragonfly 平台有多個驅動因素,包括 CIS,我們在過去兩個季度看到了一些非常好的進展。 Dragonfly 很可能是…而先進封裝很可能是下一個。
And then third would be the compound semi, and that's going to bring in our overlay metrology as well as our inspection and software. And that's a much smaller market. But from a growth perspective, the traction has been pretty robust in the last, I would say, 4 quarters, maybe even going back 6 quarters, and we expect that to continue into 2022.
第三個是複合半導體市場,這將帶來我們的套刻測量技術以及檢測和軟體。這是一個規模小得多的市場。但從成長角度來看,過去4個季度,甚至可能過去6個季度,其成長勢頭相當強勁,我們預計這種勢頭將持續到2022年。
Nathaniel Quinn Bolton - Senior Analyst
Nathaniel Quinn Bolton - Senior Analyst
Great. And then I wanted to follow up on Craig's question about gross margins, Steve. Would you expect -- I mean, obviously, that litho pressure sounds like it's going to be with you for most of 2022. So would you sort of expect gross margins to trend relatively flat during the year?
太好了。然後我想繼續回答克雷格關於毛利率的問題,史蒂夫。您預計——我的意思是,顯然,光刻壓力聽起來會在2022年的大部分時間裡一直伴隨著您。那麼您預計今年的毛利率會相對持平嗎?
Or do you think growth in other product lines cost-out hopefully lower COVID-related and logistics costs through the year, that Q1 might be a trough in gross margin, with modest increases in the following quarters?
或者您認為其他產品線的成長有望降低全年與 COVID 相關的成本和物流成本,以至於第一季度可能是毛利率的低谷,而接下來的幾個季度會適度增長?
Steven R. Roth - Senior VP of Finance & Administration and CFO
Steven R. Roth - Senior VP of Finance & Administration and CFO
Yes, it depends. So like obviously, Q1, we have several litho tools. If they all -- if they get accepted, that's probably -- that's obviously what's kind of the low end of my margin guidance there. Obviously, without those litho tools, we're up north of 55%, right? I mean it is around the high end of my guidance. It's kind of the range bounds we're at. So it's going to depend on how the litho tools layer in each quarter. But I would say we've been at around 55%.
是的,這要視情況而定。例如,很明顯,第一季我們有幾種光刻工具。如果它們全部被接受,那很可能就是我利潤率預期的低端。顯然,如果沒有這些光刻工具,我們的利潤率應該在55%以上,對吧?我的意思是,這大概是我預期的高端。這有點像我們現在所處的範圍。所以這取決於每季光刻工具的分層情況。但我認為我們的利潤率一直在55%左右。
So is there room to be anywhere 55.5%, is probably the top end. If we have level litho throughout the year, somewhere in that -- I think we're going to be in that 53.5% to 55.5% probably all year, if the litho is evenly spread. And the concern will be, obviously, is if it gets lumpy, it will have a different -- more of an effect.
那麼,55.5% 左右的空間可能存在嗎?這很可能是最高值。如果我們全年都能保持平版印刷,那麼大概在那個水平——如果平版印刷分佈均勻,我認為全年的印刷率大概會在 53.5% 到 55.5% 之間。顯然,令人擔憂的是,如果印刷率出現波動,就會產生不同的——更大的影響。
Operator
Operator
And we'll take our next question from Brian Chin with Stifel.
我們將回答 Stifel 的 Brian Chin 提出的下一個問題。
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Congratulations on the nice results and execution in the quarter. And actually, I was going to ask a few questions. Maybe just fine-tuning maybe the question or 2 that was just asked. Mike or Steve, once you get beyond the revenue recognition acceptances, and maybe that happens in Q1 for a customer, to maybe it happens in Q2, but from there out, it should be pretty much your revenue against sort of your linear shipments. Is that a fair way to put -- place that dynamic?
恭喜你們本季取得了出色的業績和執行力。事實上,我本來想問幾個問題,或許只是在對剛才問的一兩個問題微調。麥克或史蒂夫,一旦你們的收入確認驗收完成,對於客戶來說,這可能發生在第一季度,也可能發生在第二季度,但從那以後,你們的收入應該基本上是與線性出貨量成正比的。這樣描述這種動態變化合理嗎?
Steven R. Roth - Senior VP of Finance & Administration and CFO
Steven R. Roth - Senior VP of Finance & Administration and CFO
Yes. That's for sure. Yes.
是的。這是肯定的。是的。
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Okay. Great. And then again, looping back on the substrate opportunity, it sounds like there is some room over the next, say, 12 to 18 months to drive litho margins up. But are you more focused on wrapping higher-margin Firefly inspection and software around the litho tools you're placing to customers? Is that really the bigger focus, and that will obviously drive a good margin point for that sort of blend?
好的。太好了。再說回基板業務的機會,聽起來未來12到18個月內,光刻利潤率還有進步的空間。但是,你們是否更專注於將利潤率更高的Firefly檢測和軟體與你們提供給客戶的光刻工具整合在一起?這真的是你們更大的關注點嗎?而且這顯然會為這種組合帶來良好的利潤率嗎?
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
I wouldn't say it's -- one focus is above the other. Both are the focus. So we see opportunities for both. We're aggressively pursuing both areas. And we have the organization to do more than one thing. So nobody gets a free pass on that one.
我不會說哪個重點優先於哪個重點。兩者都是重點。所以我們看到了兩者的機會。我們正在積極拓展這兩個領域。而我們擁有一個可以同時處理多項事務的組織。所以沒有人可以在這方面逍遙法外。
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Okay. Fair enough. And maybe kind of a bit of a technology question, but hybrid bonding, it certainly enables significant interconnect density. And I realize we're still a ways out from broader industry adoption. But given that systems are hitting your backlog now vis-a-vis your press release, can you describe the impact hybrid bonding will have on inspection intensity in the years ahead?
好的。說得對。這或許有點技術問題,但混合鍵結確實能夠顯著提高互連密度。我知道我們距離更廣泛的行業應用還有很長的路要走。但考慮到這些系統現在正影響著你們的新聞稿中的積壓工作,您能否描述一下混合鍵合在未來幾年對檢測強度的影響?
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Yes, I think that's going to drive a significant shift in some of the metrology and inspection requirements. When you're talking about bonding wafers and expensive wafers together, just one interconnect or let's say, coplanarity across these interconnects, and when you bring them together and they don't match or they don't mesh tightly enough to make a good bond, you're destroying not just one chip, but multiple chips.
是的,我認為這將推動一些計量和檢測要求的重大轉變。當你談論將晶圓和昂貴的晶圓鍵合在一起時,只需要一個互連,或者說,這些互連之間的共面性,當你將它們放在一起時,如果它們不匹配,或者嚙合不夠緊密,無法形成良好的鍵合,那麼你毀掉的不僅僅是一個晶片,而是多個晶片。
And so the -- not just the coplanarity, but also the surface roughness and the surface shape of these interconnects is going to be critical. And we're developing -- we're in the process of developing technology now that will be able to address some of these future challenges as hybrid bonding moves from what we're seeing in CMOS image sensors, which are fairly larger interconnects, advanced, but larger compared to what we expect to see in advanced packaging for logic and other more advanced compute devices.
因此,不僅是共面性,這些互連的表面粗糙度和表面形狀也至關重要。我們正在開發能夠應對未來挑戰的技術,因為混合鍵結技術已經從我們在CMOS影像感測器中看到的技術發展而來。 CMOS影像感測器的互連尺寸更大,也更先進,但與我們預期在邏輯元件和其他更先進運算設備的先進封裝中看到的互連尺寸相比,它要大得多。
Operator
Operator
We'll take our next question from Mark Miller with The Benchmark Company.
我們將回答 The Benchmark Company 的馬克米勒提出的下一個問題。
Mark S. Miller - Senior Equity Analyst
Mark S. Miller - Senior Equity Analyst
Let me add my congratulations on another very strong quarter. I'm just wondering what type of pressures are you seeing from your component suppliers in terms of pricing and how are you handling that.
我要再次恭喜您又一個非常強勁的季度。我只是想知道,在定價方面,您從零件供應商那裡感受到了什麼樣的壓力,以及您是如何應對的。
Steven R. Roth - Senior VP of Finance & Administration and CFO
Steven R. Roth - Senior VP of Finance & Administration and CFO
Well, we've started -- I think I mentioned in my discussions about the fourth quarter margins, we are seeing some price increases being passed through. I think the big thing for us is we obviously -- for critical components, we really have a relatively long lead purchase order. So we've seen a little bit of that so far. We've been able to -- obviously, higher revenues are going to offset that. But I do think that's going to continue to be a challenge for everybody for all 2022 for sure.
嗯,我們已經開始——我記得我在討論第四季度利潤率時提到過,我們看到一些價格上漲正在被轉嫁。我認為對我們來說最重要的是,對於關鍵零件,我們確實有相對較長的採購訂單週期。所以到目前為止,我們已經看到了一些這樣的情況。顯然,更高的收入將抵消這些影響。但我確實認為,在2022年,這肯定會繼續成為所有人面臨的挑戰。
Mark S. Miller - Senior Equity Analyst
Mark S. Miller - Senior Equity Analyst
Are you starting -- there's a number of new fabs. I think there's at least 5 new fabs that are ramping next year. Are you starting to see any orders or you expect to see them late in the year or early next year?
你們開始了嗎?有很多新晶圓廠正在建設中。我認為明年至少有5家新晶圓廠正在加速投產。你們現在開始接到訂單了嗎?或是預計今年底或明年年初會接到訂單?
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
For sure, we're starting to continue to see better visibility through our backlog. And I don't think we're taking significant amount of orders for 2023, but we are taking some, and we are seeing customers approaching us and starting to understand the slotting plans and wanting to reserve slots in 2023. So for sure, visibility is improving. But I wouldn't -- I think, right now, the focus is really on making sure we meet all the demand that we see right now in 2022.
當然,我們開始透過積壓訂單來更了解情況。我認為我們2023年的訂單量並不大,但也有一些訂單。我們也看到一些客戶與我們聯繫,開始了解艙等安排,並希望在2023年預訂艙等。所以,情況的可視性肯定在提高。但我認為,目前的重點是確保我們能夠滿足2022年目前看到的所有需求。
Operator
Operator
We'll take our next question from David Duley with Steelhead Securities.
我們將回答 Steelhead Securities 的 David Duley 提出的下一個問題。
David Duley - Managing Principal
David Duley - Managing Principal
I had a couple. I guess in reference to the $100 million lithography backlog, I think you've mentioned, Steve, that just under half of it might ship this year, with the balance in 2023 and '24. I'm assuming that's just the lithography systems.
我有幾個。史蒂夫,關於1億美元的光刻機積壓訂單,我記得你提到過,其中將近一半可能會在今年發貨,其餘的將在2023年和2024年發貨。我猜這只是光刻系統。
Could you help me understand, since you're kind of packaging these with inspection or metrology and software, what the total opportunity might be for that $100 million? Is the other tools adding another $100 million to that opportunity? Or is it less? Or maybe help me understand how the bundling of things impacts the $100 million of lithography backlog?
您能否幫我理解一下,既然您把這些與檢測或計量以及軟體打包在一起,那麼這1億美元的總機會可能是什麼?其他工具是否會為這個機會再增加1億美元?還是會減少?或者,能否幫我理解一下這些捆綁銷售對1億美元的光刻機訂單有何影響?
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Yes. That's a great question, David. And so I'll maybe add some color or clarity. The -- we've proven use cases for panel level fan-out. So panel level fan-out applications, we've developed a very nice integrated solution, as I described, combining the inspection, lithography and software together to solve certain inherent process issues with panel level fan-out.
是的。 David,這個問題問得很好。我或許可以補充一些細節或解釋。我們已經驗證了面板級扇出型的用例。因此,對於面板級扇出型應用,我們開發了一個非常好的整合解決方案,正如我之前所述,它將檢測、光刻和軟體結合在一起,解決了面板級扇出型固有的一些製程問題。
The X500 is going after a different panel market, the substrate market, and the challenges are going to be different. So the solution doesn't directly apply, although we think several pieces of it will. But we're -- what we said in the commentary is as we begin to install these systems and understand more deeply the process and challenges, we'll have a better understanding of what other components we can bring to bear from the portfolio of technologies we have in order to provide increased productivity and yield for these customers.
X500 瞄準的是不同的面板市場,也就是基板市場,因此面臨的挑戰也有所不同。因此,解決方案並非直接適用,儘管我們認為其中的幾個部分會適用。但我們——正如我們在評論中所說,隨著我們開始安裝這些系統,並更深入地了解其流程和挑戰,我們將更好地理解可以從我們現有的技術組合中引入哪些其他組件,從而為這些客戶提供更高的生產力和良率。
And for sure, that's a big need for our X500 customers. Yields are not -- they're certainly not at 90%. They're well, well below that. And they're feeling tremendous pressure to ramp and increase production capacity.
毫無疑問,這對我們的X500客戶來說是一個很大的需求。良率肯定達不到90%。他們的良率遠低於這個數字。他們面臨著提升產能的巨大壓力。
David Duley - Managing Principal
David Duley - Managing Principal
So can you characterize, of the $100 million, how much is for the fan-out versus the, I guess, the substrate market? Or how are we...
那麼,您能否描述一下,在這1億美元中,有多少用於扇出型市場,有多少用於基板市場?或者說,我們如何…
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
It's nearly all X500, so it's nearly all for the substrate market.
幾乎全部都是X500,因此幾乎全部用於基板市場。
David Duley - Managing Principal
David Duley - Managing Principal
Okay. Okay. And then you mentioned in your prepared remarks about how you've worked hard to get into the power device markets. And I was wondering if you could just help us understand how -- as far as total revenue goes, how big is your exposure to the power markets or -- and specifically maybe the silicon carbide market. And then which product lines are the biggest drivers of your revenue and exposure to that sector?
好的。好的。您在準備好的演講中提到了您如何努力進入功率裝置市場。我想知道您能否幫助我們了解一下—就總收入而言,您在功率元件市場,特別是碳化矽市場的佔比有多大?哪些產品線是您在該領域收入和佔比的最大驅動力?
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
So for power, as far as exposure goes, I think we have pretty broad exposure in the -- into the customers' manufacturing GaN, silicon carbide, et cetera. They're obviously much smaller than our other customers, but with pretty high projections for growth. Our product lines that are in the -- serving those power customers, the 2 primary ones would be our Dragonfly inspection as well as our IVS or [IVision] overlay metrology systems.
就功率元件而言,就業務範圍而言,我認為我們在客戶製造GaN、碳化矽等方面擁有相當廣泛的業務。這些客戶的規模顯然比我們的其他客戶小得多,但成長預期相當高。我們服務這些功率元件客戶的產品線主要包括 Dragonfly 偵測系統以及 IVS 或 [IVision] 疊層測量系統。
And then we bring together the software, which several power customers have also adopted. So overall, from a company standpoint, power market is a little bit smaller, and it's in the specialty devices and AP. But it is projected to be pretty decent growth on a percentage basis this year, 2022. And we do have a compelling combination of technologies, we think, will give us a strong opportunity to gain share in that market.
然後,我們將軟體整合在一起,一些電力客戶也採用了該軟體。因此,總體而言,從公司的角度來看,電力市場規模較小,主要集中在專用設備和應用處理器 (AP) 領域。但預計今年(2022 年)的百分比成長將相當可觀。我們確實擁有引人注目的技術組合,我們認為,這將為我們在該市場贏得份額提供強大的機會。
David Duley - Managing Principal
David Duley - Managing Principal
Okay. Great. Final one for me is I think you mentioned you thought the overall WFE market would grow double digits and that I think you also mentioned that you would outperform that. So the suggestion is, is that whatever WFE is, that your revenue should grow a bit faster. I guess I'm trying to figure out above 10% is kind of a big range. I'm wondering what you think the WFE market will grow in 2022.
好的。太好了。最後一個問題是,我記得您提到過,您認為WFE市場整體會實現兩位數成長,而且您也提到您的業績會超過這個數字。所以,我的建議是,無論WFE是什麼,您的收入都應該成長得更快一些。我想弄清楚10%以上是比較大的區間。我想知道您認為2022年WFE市場會成長多少。
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Well, we've seen estimates vary a lot, and we've seen estimates change since the last call until now. So at that point, it was 8% to 12% range. Now we've seen estimates 15%, even as high as 17%, 18%. So somewhere in that range is where if somebody is going to be right in their estimates, and we still feel confident we would outperform in that range.
嗯,我們看到估值差異很大,而且從上次電話會議到現在,估值一直在改變。當時的估值在8%到12%之間。現在我們看到的估值已經達到了15%,甚至高達17%、18%。所以,如果有人的估值準確,我們仍然有信心在這個範圍內取得優異的業績。
David Duley - Managing Principal
David Duley - Managing Principal
Okay. Just to -- so just to kind of, I don't want to say pin you down, but just to understand what you just said. We've increased the range of WFE growth to, let's say, roughly 15%, and you think you can outperform that rate if that's where the market grows?
好的。我只是想——我不想限制你,只是想理解你剛剛說了什麼。我們已經將WFE的成長幅度提高到大約15%,如果市場也維持這個成長速度,你認為你們的表現能超過這個水準嗎?
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Correct.
正確的。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) We'll take our next question from Hans Chung with D.A. Davidson.
(操作員指示)我們將回答 D.A. Davidson 的 Hans Chung 提出的下一個問題。
Mon-Han Chung - Senior VP & Senior Research Analyst
Mon-Han Chung - Senior VP & Senior Research Analyst
Congratulations on the strong results and outlook. So I have a couple of questions. First, I want to follow up on the lithography-related topic. So the $100 million, the backlog, is I think that's for the first customer, right? And then obviously, you have already clarified for a third customer.
祝賀您取得的強勁業績和前景。我有幾個問題。首先,我想跟進一下與光刻技術相關的話題。 1億美元的積壓訂單,我想是針對第一位客戶的,對嗎?然後,顯然,您已經澄清了針對第三位客戶的情況。
So I guess, my question is like how -- what kind of revenue opportunity is, let's say, for the second and third customer going forward? Will that be -- could that be benchmarked to the $100 million type of revenue opportunity going forward?
所以我想問的是,對於第二和第三個客戶來說,未來會有什麼樣的收入機會?這能以未來1億美元的收入機會為基準嗎?
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
That's a good question. So within that $100 million are several customers, actually. So it's not all one customer. And we're really being constrained by our ability to ramp production and to ramp production capacity in a timely manner to meet the needs of the market. So we have, I would say, 3 to 4 customers in that -- yes, maybe up to 5 customers in that bucket, in that $100 million, and they all have varying levels of systems assigned to them.
這個問題問得好。實際上,這1億美元裡包含多個客戶,而不是全部都屬於同一個客戶。我們真正受限於及時提高產量和產能以滿足市場需求的能力。所以,我想說,這1億美元裡有3到4個客戶──是的,最多可能有5個客戶,而且他們都分配了不同等級的系統。
Mon-Han Chung - Senior VP & Senior Research Analyst
Mon-Han Chung - Senior VP & Senior Research Analyst
Got it. So basically, it's sort of like a $50 million run rate type of business going forward, right?
明白了。所以基本上,這有點像未來5000萬美元的營運率業務,對吧?
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
It depends. We've seen pretty aggressive forecasts going out several years from now, that depending on how well the X500 does and what share we get of the overall business, could be above that. I would probably be disappointed if it was a $50 million run rate.
這得看情況。我們看到幾年後會有相當激進的預測,這取決於X500的表現以及我們在整體業務中所佔的份額,最終可能會高於這個數字。如果實際營運成本是5000萬美元,我可能會感到失望。
Mon-Han Chung - Senior VP & Senior Research Analyst
Mon-Han Chung - Senior VP & Senior Research Analyst
Got it. Got it. And so the next question is can you provide some color about the backlog exiting 2021 and also the lead time right now versus a quarter ago?
明白了。明白了。那麼下一個問題是,您能否提供一些關於2021年剩餘訂單量以及目前與一個季度前相比的交付週期的資訊?
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Specific to the lithography or in general?
是針對光刻技術還是一般而言?
Mon-Han Chung - Senior VP & Senior Research Analyst
Mon-Han Chung - Senior VP & Senior Research Analyst
Overall, in general.
整體來說,一般。
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Michael P. Plisinski - CEO & Director
Overall. So from a lead time perspective, it varies by product line, of course. And we have a wide range of product lines and with supply chains and demand the way it is, where, obviously, lead times are pushing out. So we've been trying to get customers to issue purchase orders early enough that we can actually ensure that we have the inventory and the builds and the slots on hand to meet their demand. So from a rough range, I would say, 4 to 6 months. And for litho, it's up over -- at this point, it's almost 2 years. We're now booking for 2024.
總體而言。從交貨週期的角度來看,當然會因產品線而異。我們的產品線種類繁多,加上目前的供應鏈和需求,交付週期顯然會延長。因此,我們一直在努力讓客戶儘早下訂單,以確保我們有足夠的庫存、產能和可用產能來滿足他們的需求。粗略估計,大概要4到6個月。而對於光刻技術來說,交付週期已經超過——目前來看,已經接近兩年了。我們現在的訂單是2024年。
Operator
Operator
At this time, there's no further questions in the queue. I would like to turn the conference back to Mike Sheaffer for any additional or closing remarks.
目前,沒有其他問題了。我想請 Mike Sheaffer 繼續發言,請他發表補充或結束語。
Michael Sheaffer - Senior Director of IR, Corporate Communications & Marketing Research
Michael Sheaffer - Senior Director of IR, Corporate Communications & Marketing Research
Great. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We know it's a busy time for earnings, and we really appreciate your time today. I'm sure we'll be catching up with some of you at the Morgan Stanley conference on March 9, and we'll be looking forward to catching up to many others throughout the quarter.
太好了!感謝各位今天加入我們。我們知道現在是財報發布的關鍵時期,非常感謝大家今天抽出時間。我相信我們會在3月9日的摩根士丹利會議上與你們中的一些人見面,我們也期待在本季與其他更多人見面。
And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Keith to wrap it up.
說完這些,我將把電話轉回給 Keith 來結束演講。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. We appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect.
謝謝大家。女士們,先生們,今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開連線了。