Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Ollie's Bargain Outlet conference call to discuss financial results for the fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2021. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that reproduction of this call in whole or in part is not permitted without written authorization from Ollie's. And as a reminder, this call is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎參加 Ollie's Bargain Outlet 電話會議，討論第四季度和 2021 財年全年的財務業績。（操作員說明）請注意，未經 Ollie's 書面授權，不得全部或部分複制此電話會議.提醒一下，此通話正在錄音中。

On today's call from management, we have John Swygert, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jay Stasz, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Eric van der Vaik, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer.

在今天管理層的電話會議上，我們有總裁兼首席執行官 John Swygert； Jay Stasz，高級副總裁兼首席財務官；執行副總裁兼首席運營官 Eric van der Vaik。

Thank you, Jonathan. Good afternoon, and welcome to Ollie's Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2021 Earnings Conference Call. A press release covering the company's financial results was issued this afternoon, and a copy of their press release can be found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

謝謝你，喬納森。下午好，歡迎來到 Ollie 的 2021 財年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。今天下午發布了一份涵蓋公司財務業績的新聞稿，其新聞稿的副本可在公司網站的投資者關係部分找到。

I want to remind everyone that management's remarks on this call may contain forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, predictions, expectations or estimates and that actual results could differ materially from those mentioned on today's call. Any such items, including with respect to our future performance, should be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements which speak only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise them for any new information or future events.

我想提醒大家，管理層對本次電話會議的評論可能包含前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於預測、預期或估計，實際結果可能與今天電話會議中提到的結果存在重大差異。任何此類項目，包括關於我們未來業績的項目，都應被視為 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。您不應過分依賴這些僅在今天發表的前瞻性陳述，並且我們不承擔為任何新信息或未來事件更新或修改它們的義務。

Factors that might affect future results may not be in our control and are discussed in our SEC filings. We encourage you to review these filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q as well as our earnings release issued earlier today. For a more detailed description of these factors, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures on today's call that we believe may be important for investors to assess our operating performance. Reconciliations of the most closely comparable GAAP financial measures to the non-GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release.

可能影響未來結果的因素可能不在我們的控制範圍內，並在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中進行了討論。我們鼓勵您查看這些文件，包括我們的 10-K 表格年度報告、10-Q 表格季度報告以及我們今天早些時候發布的收益報告。為了更詳細地描述這些因素，我們將在今天的電話會議上參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標，我們認為這些指標可能對投資者評估我們的經營業績很重要。我們的收益發布中包含了最接近可比性的 GAAP 財務指標與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。

With that, I will turn the call over to John.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Jean, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining our call today.

謝謝，讓，大家好。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

Looking back to 2021, we navigated through numerous headwinds, including unprecedented inflation in merchandise and transportation cost, shipping delays of imported product and backlogs at our distribution centers. We worked aggressively to control by leveraging our vast network of vendor partners, improving efficiencies in our distribution centers and initiating negotiations of import container contracts earlier than normal. All while continuing to execute our retail expansion strategy and delivering great deals to our customers. Importantly, the changes we have made to our supply chain will enable us to navigate even better going forward.

回顧 2021 年，我們經歷了無數不利因素，包括前所未有的商品和運輸成本通脹、進口產品的運輸延誤以及我們配送中心的積壓。我們通過利用我們龐大的供應商合作夥伴網絡、提高我們配送中心的效率以及比正常情況更早地啟動進口集裝箱合同談判來積極控制。同時繼續執行我們的零售擴張戰略並為我們的客戶提供超值優惠。重要的是，我們對供應鏈所做的改變將使我們能夠更好地前進。

During the fourth quarter, we delivered exceptional deals to our customers and made great progress getting our distribution centers back to desired throughput levels. We were able to secure additional import container capacity, which enabled us to deliver our spring merchandise on a timely basis to our stores. We believe we are well-positioned for the spring selling season.

在第四季度，我們為客戶提供了出色的交易，並在使我們的配送中心恢復到預期的吞吐量水平方面取得了很大進展。我們能夠獲得額外的進口集裝箱容量，這使我們能夠及時將春季商品運送到我們的商店。我們相信我們已為春季銷售旺季做好準備。

Turning to the fourth quarter results. Compared to 2019, our comparable store sales decreased 2% in line with our expectations. We've remained focused on offering the most compelling values to our customers and are excited about the closeout opportunities we're seeing in the market today due to package changes created by inflation, supply chain challenges, canceled orders, excess inventory, overruns and product innovation.

轉向第四季度的結果。與 2019 年相比，我們的可比店面銷售額下降了 2%，符合我們的預期。我們一直專注於為我們的客戶提供最具吸引力的價值，並且對我們今天在市場上看到的因通貨膨脹、供應鏈挑戰、取消訂單、庫存過剩、超支和產品造成的包裝變化而出現的清倉機會感到興奮創新。

We expect to see more deals come our way due to late arriving canceled merchandise and will remain nimble to ensure we capitalize on these deals. We are seeing strong deal flow in health and beauty aids, housewares, hardware, holiday seasonal, bed and bath, automotive and pets. This type of environment plays into our strengths. Our merchant teams are nimble and able to react quickly to secure great deals that we know our customers want. The value we provide is more critical than ever as we recognize that our customer is being impacted by the rapid rise in inflation as prices for everything from gas to groceries has risen dramatically.

由於延遲到達的取消商品，我們預計會看到更多交易，並將保持靈活以確保我們利用這些交易。我們看到健康和美容用品、家庭用品、硬件、節日季、床和浴室、汽車和寵物方面的交易量很大。這種類型的環境發揮了我們的優勢。我們的商家團隊非常靈活，能夠快速做出反應，以確保我們知道客戶想要的超值交易。我們提供的價值比以往任何時候都更加重要，因為我們認識到我們的客戶正受到通貨膨脹迅速上升的影響，因為從汽油到雜貨的一切價格都急劇上漲。

While this leaves our customers with less discretionary income, we expect value to become increasingly important to all consumers. In addition, there are several other dynamics impacting our customers, including a shift in spending from goods to services and experiences, a lack of stimulus and timing of tax refunds. In the long run, we know that our unique offering of compelling value will ultimately win.

雖然這使我們的客戶可自由支配的收入減少，但我們預計價值對所有消費者而言將變得越來越重要。此外，還有其他一些因素影響著我們的客戶，包括消費從商品轉向服務和體驗、缺乏刺激和退稅時機。從長遠來看，我們知道我們提供的具有吸引力的獨特價值最終會獲勝。

Turning to real estate. During the fourth quarter, we opened 5 new stores ending the year with 431 stores in 29 states. We are pleased with our new store productivity levels. We are currently experiencing delays related to permitting and construction of our new stores. As a result, we plan to open between 44 to 46 net new stores in 2022. We remain confident that our model can support at least 1,050 stores in total and plan to resume a normal store opening cadence between 50 to 55 stores annually in 2023.

轉向房地產。第四季度，我們在 29 個州開設了 5 家新店，截至年底共有 431 家店。我們對新的商店生產力水平感到滿意。我們目前正在經歷與新店的許可和建設相關的延誤。因此，我們計劃在 2022 年開設 44 至 46 家淨新店。我們仍然相信我們的模式可以支持至少 1,050 家門店，併計劃在 2023 年恢復正常的開店節奏，每年 50 至 55 家門店。

We are excited to announce that for the first time in our company's history, we are launching a store remodel program. We plan to remodel 30 stores to our newest merchandising format in 2022. The enhancements we are making to the stores are expected to improve our customer shopping experience and to drive higher store sales overall.

我們很高興地宣布，在我們公司的歷史上，我們將首次啟動商店改造計劃。我們計劃在 2022 年將 30 家商店改造為我們最新的銷售模式。我們對商店進行的改進預計將改善我們的客戶購物體驗並推動更高的商店整體銷售額。

Ollie's Army remains an important driver of our sales, reaching over 78% sales penetration in the quarter. The Army grew 8.5% over the prior year, ending the period with over 12.6 million active members. We were pleased with Ollie's Army Night, where we once again open our doors exclusively to Ollie's Army members for an evening of shopping and special discounts. This year marks our 40th anniversary, and we have several special events planned to celebrate this milestone.

Ollie's Army 仍然是我們銷售的重要推動力，本季度的銷售滲透率達到 78% 以上。陸軍比上一年增長 8.5%，結束該時期時有超過 1260 萬現役軍人。我們對 Ollie's Army Night 很滿意，我們再次向 Ollie's Army 會員敞開大門，享受購物之夜和特別折扣。今年是我們成立 40 週年，我們計劃舉辦多項特別活動來慶祝這一里程碑。

For the first time since our 25th anniversary, we are holding a contest to crown America's biggest cheapskate by asking our customers to tell us why they deserve this distinguished honor. In addition, during our week-long Ollie' Days event, we will be including 40 terrific deals for our 40-year anniversary celebration. We have a lineup of other great events to create excitement and we welcome you to join in.

自我們成立 25 週年以來，我們首次舉辦了一場比賽，為美國最大的吝嗇鬼加冕，要求我們的客戶告訴我們為什麼他們應該獲得這一殊榮。此外，在我們為期一周的 Ollie' Days 活動中，我們將為 40 週年慶典提供 40 項超值優惠。我們還有一系列其他精彩活動來營造興奮，我們歡迎您加入。

Operationally, we have made refinements and enhancements to our supply chain due to the tighter labor market and the ongoing impact of COVID. We continue to find ways to improve efficiencies in our distribution centers, and they are running well now. Our Pennsylvania and Georgia distribution centers have been operating at full throughput levels since the end of third quarter of 2021, and our Texas DC reached its desired level in late February of this year.

在運營方面，由於勞動力市場趨緊和 COVID 的持續影響，我們對供應鏈進行了改進和改進。我們繼續尋找提高配送中心效率的方法，它們現在運行良好。自 2021 年第三季度末以來，我們的賓夕法尼亞州和佐治亞州配送中心一直以滿負荷運行，而我們的德克薩斯配送中心在今年 2 月下旬達到了預期水平。

The 200,000 square foot expansion of our York distribution center is awaiting final permit approvals. We plan to start construction once permits are issued and at this point in time, expect to have it completed by the end of this year. This expansion will provide us the ability to service an additional 50 stores for a total of 200 to 210 stores from this location. This brings the total number of stores that we can service from our distribution centers to over 550. As we continue to expand our footprint, we plan to open our fourth distribution center in the second quarter of 2024.

我們約克配送中心 200,000 平方英尺的擴建正在等待最終許可批准。我們計劃在頒發許可證後開始施工，目前預計將在今年年底完成。此次擴張將使我們能夠從該地點為另外 50 家商店提供服務，總共 200 至 210 家商店。這使我們可以從我們的配送中心提供服務的商店總數超過 550 家。隨著我們繼續擴大我們的足跡，我們計劃在 2024 年第二季度開設我們的第四個配送中心。

In summary, we are excited about our 40th anniversary, our store remodel program and the incredible deals we are seeing in the market. We feel good about our inventory position and have a strong offering of spring seasonal product for our customers. That said, we recognize that we are navigating an uncertain, highly inflationary environment. While we are confident that we will return to our long-term algorithm, we anticipate continued pressure in the first half of 2022. We expect to see trends improve as we move through the second half of the year, position us to return to our long-term algorithm. We are focused on what we can control and believe that our business will benefit from an increased need for value driving consumers to trade down. We are well-positioned to capture this customer as a closeout retailer that delivers extreme value and a treasure hunt experience.

總而言之，我們對我們的 40 週年紀念、我們的商店改造計劃以及我們在市場上看到的令人難以置信的交易感到興奮。我們對我們的庫存狀況感到滿意，並為我們的客戶提供了強大的春季季節性產品。也就是說，我們認識到我們正在駕馭一個不確定的、高度通脹的環境。雖然我們有信心我們將回到我們的長期算法，但我們預計 2022 年上半年將繼續面臨壓力。我們預計隨著下半年的發展趨勢會有所改善，使我們能夠回到我們的長期算法項算法。我們專注於我們可以控制的東西，並相信我們的業務將受益於推動消費者降價交易的價值需求增加。作為一家提供極致價值和尋寶體驗的清倉零售商，我們處於有利地位，可以吸引該客戶。

The long-term potential of our business remains firmly intact. We have a long runway to at least 1,050 stores. We have a highly loyal customer base that generates almost 80% of our sales and our stores generate a ton of free cash flow. We remain committed to returning value to our shareholders as reflected in our increased share buyback program that we announced in December.

我們業務的長期潛力仍然完好無損。我們有至少 1,050 家商店的長跑道。我們擁有高度忠誠的客戶群，他們產生了我們近 80% 的銷售額，我們的商店產生了大量的自由現金流。正如我們在 12 月宣布的增加股票回購計劃所反映的那樣，我們仍然致力於為股東回報價值。

In closing, I would like to thank the entire Ollie's team for their hard work and dedication during what has been one of the most dynamic and challenging environment in our company history. We appreciate all that you have done to serve our communities and offer the best possible experience to our customers. As we say, we are Ollie's.

最後，我要感謝整個 Ollie 團隊在我們公司歷史上最具活力和挑戰性的環境之一期間的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。我們感謝您為我們的社區服務並為我們的客戶提供最佳體驗所做的一切。正如我們所說，我們是 Ollie's。

I will now hand the call over to Jay to take you through our financial results.

我現在將電話轉給 Jay，讓您了解我們的財務業績。

Thanks, John, and good afternoon, everyone. I want to start by thanking the entire Ollie's team for their incredible teamwork and dedication throughout the year.

謝謝，約翰，大家下午好。首先，我要感謝整個 Ollie 的團隊，感謝他們在這一年中令人難以置信的團隊合作和奉獻精神。

For the quarter, net sales totaled $501.1 million, a 2.8% decrease from the prior year. Comparable store sales decreased 10.5% in the quarter compared with the prior year. Comparable store sales compared to 2019 declined 2%. Late deliveries of key seasonal product negatively impacted early holiday sales. We had hoped that as our in-stock position improved as we move through the quarter, we would benefit from last-minute shopping. However, we found that many of our customers shopped earlier in the holiday season.

本季度淨銷售額總計 5.011 億美元，比上年下降 2.8%。與去年同期相比，本季度可比店面銷售額下降了 10.5%。與 2019 年相比，可比店面銷售額下降了 2%。主要季節性產品的延遲交付對提早的假期銷售產生了負面影響。我們曾希望，隨著本季度的推進，我們的庫存狀況有所改善，我們將從最後一刻的購物中受益。然而，我們發現我們的許多顧客在假期購物季早些時候購物。

In the quarter, we opened 5 new stores ending the period with 431 stores in 29 states, an 11.1% year-over-year increase in store count. Since the end of the fourth quarter, we've opened 5 additional stores. We plan to open 46 to 48 stores in 2022, including 2 relocations.

本季度，我們在 29 個州開設了 5 家新店，共有 431 家門店，門店數量同比增長 11.1%。自第四季度末以來，我們又開設了 5 家門店。我們計劃在 2022 年開設 46 至 48 家門店，包括 2 家搬遷。

Gross profit decreased 10.6% to $183 million, and gross margin decreased 320 basis points to 36.5% compared to 39.7% in the same period a year ago. The decline in margin was due primarily to supply chain costs, which more than offset the 170 basis point increase in merchandise margin. SG&A expenses, excluding a $100,000 gain on an insurance settlement in the quarter increased 160 basis points to 23.8% because of deleveraging due to the decrease in sales.

毛利下降 10.6% 至 1.83 億美元，毛利率較上年同期的 39.7% 下降 320 個基點至 36.5%。利潤率的下降主要是由於供應鏈成本，這抵消了商品利潤率 170 個基點的增長。 SG&A 費用（不包括本季度 100,000 美元的保險結算收益）增加 160 個基點至 23.8%，原因是銷售額下降導致去槓桿化。

Adjusted operating income, which excludes the insurance settlement gain, totaled $57.3 million, a 32.1% decrease from the prior year. Adjusted operating margin decreased 500 basis points to 11.4% due to lower gross margin and deleveraging of SG&A expenses as a result of the decline in sales.

不包括保險結算收益的調整後營業收入總計 5730 萬美元，比上年下降 32.1%。調整後的營業利潤率下降 500 個基點至 11.4%，原因是銷售額下降導致毛利率下降和 SG&A 費用去槓桿化。

Adjusted net income, which excludes the insurance gain and tax benefits related to stock-based compensation, was $43.9 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.69.

不包括與股票薪酬相關的保險收益和稅收優惠的調整後淨收入為 4390 萬美元，調整後的攤薄每股收益為 0.69 美元。

Adjusted EBITDA was $66.1 million and adjusted EBITDA margin decreased 470 basis points to 13.2% for the quarter.

本季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 6610 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率下降 470 個基點至 13.2%。

For the full year of '21, net sales totaled $1.753 billion, a decrease of 3.1% compared to the prior year. Comparable store sales decreased 11.1% for the year and increased 3.6% compared to 2019.

21 年全年，淨銷售額總計 17.53 億美元，比上年下降 3.1%。可比店面銷售額全年下降 11.1%，與 2019 年相比增長 3.6%。

Adjusted net income in 2021, which excludes the insurance gain and tax benefits related to stock-based compensation was $152.9 million and adjusted net income per diluted share was $2.36.

不包括與股票薪酬相關的保險收益和稅收優惠的 2021 年調整後淨收入為 1.529 億美元，調整後每股攤薄淨收入為 2.36 美元。

Capital expenditures for the year totaled $35 million, primarily for new and existing stores. This compares with $30.5 million in the prior year. Inventories increased 32.1% to $467.3 million compared with $353.7 million as of the end of fiscal 2020, with almost half of the variance attributable to increased supply chain costs and the remainder driven by the increased number of stores and the timing of merchandise receipts.

這一年的資本支出總計 3500 萬美元，主要用於新店和現有店面。相比之下，上一年為 3050 萬美元。與 2020 財年末的 3.537 億美元相比，庫存增加了 32.1% 至 4.673 億美元，其中近一半的差異歸因於供應鏈成本的增加，其餘差異則歸因於商店數量的增加和商品收貨的時間。

In addition, inventories as of the end of fiscal 2020 were reduced due to heightened levels of sales productivity throughout the fourth quarter of last year. Most importantly, we are comfortable with the quantity and quality of our inventory in our stores today and believe we are well-positioned for the spring selling season. At the end of the period, we had no outstanding borrowings under our $100 million revolving credit facility and $247 million in cash.

此外，由於去年第四季度銷售生產力水平提高，截至 2020 財年末的庫存有所減少。最重要的是，我們對今天商店庫存的數量和質量感到滿意，並相信我們已經為春季銷售旺季做好了準備。在此期間結束時，我們的 1 億美元循環信貸額度和 2.47 億美元現金下沒有未償還的借款。

During the fourth quarter, we invested $20 million to repurchase approximately 435,000 shares of our common stock. For the full year, we invested $220 million to repurchase approximately 3.1 million shares of our common stock. We currently have approximately $180 million remaining on our share repurchase program.

第四季度，我們投資 2000 萬美元回購了大約 435,000 股普通股。全年，我們投資 2.2 億美元回購了大約 310 萬股普通股。目前，我們的股票回購計劃剩餘約 1.8 億美元。

I will share some high-level thoughts on fiscal '22.

我將分享一些關於 22 財年的高層次想法。

Our full year comp guidance is within the range of our long-term algorithm on a 3-year basis. That said, we recognize that we are navigating an uncertain and highly inflationary environment while lapping significant stimulus in the first quarter. At the same time, we continue to face higher transportation, product and labor costs. We believe that these factors will have a bigger impact on our first half results as we lap these headwinds and begin to benefit from the actions we are taking to offset these pressures in the second half.

我們的全年薪酬指導在我們 3 年的長期算法範圍內。也就是說，我們認識到，在第一季度實施重大刺激措施的同時，我們正在應對一個不確定且高通脹的環境。與此同時，我們繼續面臨更高的運輸、產品和勞動力成本。我們相信，這些因素將對我們上半年的業績產生更大的影響，因為我們克服了這些不利因素，並開始從我們為抵消下半年這些壓力而採取的行動中受益。

Based on these dynamics for the full year, we expect total net sales of $1.908 billion to $1.926 billion; comp store sales of flat to plus 1% or in line with our long-term algorithm on a 3-year geometric stack basis; the opening of 46 to 48 new stores, including 2 relocations. We expect to open 8 stores in the first quarter, 12 in the second, 17 in the third quarter and between 9 and 11 in the fourth quarter. We expect full year gross margin of approximately 37.2%, reflecting increased supply chain costs, especially during the first half of the year.

基於全年的這些動態，我們預計總淨銷售額為 19.08 億美元至 19.26 億美元；在 3 年的幾何疊加基礎上，將持平的商店銷售額增加 1% 或符合我們的長期算法；開設 46 至 48 家新店，包括 2 家搬遷。我們預計第一季度將開設 8 家門店，第二季度將開設 12 家，第三季度將開設 17 家，第四季度將開設 9 至 11 家。我們預計全年毛利率約為 37.2%，反映了供應鏈成本的增加，尤其是在上半年。

We expect this margin pressure in the first half to result in similar year-over-year declines in gross margin in each of Q1 and Q2. We expect some sequential improvement in Q3 and a return to normalized overall gross margin levels in the fourth quarter.

我們預計上半年的這種利潤率壓力將導致第一季度和第二季度的毛利率出現類似的同比下降。我們預計第三季度將出現一些環比改善，第四季度整體毛利率將恢復正常水平。

We expect operating income of between $182 million to $187 million, adjusted net income of between $136 million to $140 million and adjusted net income per diluted share of $2.15 to $2.22, both of which excludes excess tax benefits related to stock-based compensation.

我們預計營業收入在 1.82 億美元至 1.87 億美元之間，調整後的淨收入在 1.36 億美元至 1.4 億美元之間，調整後的攤薄後每股淨收入在 2.15 美元至 2.22 美元之間，兩者均不包括與股票薪酬相關的超額稅收優惠。

Depreciation and amortization expense in the range of $28 million to $29 million, including approximately $6 million that runs through cost of goods sold.

折舊和攤銷費用在 2800 萬美元至 2900 萬美元之間，其中約 600 萬美元貫穿於已售商品的成本。

An effective tax rate of 25.4%, which excludes the tax benefits related to stock-based compensation and diluted weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 63 million.

有效稅率為 25.4%，不包括與基於股票的補償和稀釋加權平均流通股約 6300 萬股相關的稅收優惠。

We expect capital expenditures of $53 million to $58 million related to new stores, store level initiatives, our York DC expansion and IT projects.

我們預計與新店、店面計劃、約克 DC 擴張和 IT 項目相關的資本支出為 5300 萬至 5800 萬美元。

For the first quarter, we expect total sales of approximately $417 million to $422 million. We expect comp store sales to be down 15% to down 14% as compared to '21. On a 3-year geometric stack basis, we expect to be slightly negative in Q1 as we lap unprecedented stimulus.

對於第一季度，我們預計總銷售額約為 4.17 億美元至 4.22 億美元。與 21 年相比，我們預計商店銷售額將下降 15% 至 14%。在 3 年幾何疊加的基礎上，我們預計第一季度將略有負面，因為我們採取了前所未有的刺激措施。

Gross margin is expected to be approximately 35.8%, operating income of $26.5 million to $28 million and adjusted net income of between $20 million and $21 million.

毛利率預計約為 35.8%，營業收入為 2650 萬至 2800 萬美元，調整後的淨收入為 2000 萬至 2100 萬美元。

And finally, adjusted net income per diluted share of $0.31 to $0.33, both of which exclude excess tax benefits related to stock-based compensation.

最後，調整後的每股攤薄淨收益為 0.31 美元至 0.33 美元，兩者均不包括與股票薪酬相關的超額稅收優惠。

In closing, while we have -- will have pressures in the first half of '22, we expect improvement in our margins and metrics in the back half with the expectation of returning to our long-term algorithm.

最後，雖然我們 - 將在 22 年上半年面臨壓力，但我們預計後半部分的利潤率和指標會有所改善，並有望回歸我們的長期算法。

I'll now turn the call back to the operator to start the Q&A session. Operator?

我現在將電話轉回接線員以開始問答環節。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Brad Thomas from KeyBanc Capital.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital 的 Brad Thomas。

I wanted to ask about how you're thinking about same-store sales as we progress through the year. I think if we try and do some quick math on it, given how difficult the comparison is in 1Q to get to the full year guidance, it does imply that perhaps you may be above your normal comp outlook as we get into later quarters. Any more color you could provide on how you're thinking about comps through the year would be very helpful.

我想問一下，隨著我們這一年的進展，您如何看待同店銷售。我認為，如果我們嘗試對其進行一些快速計算，考慮到 1Q 的比較很難達到全年指導，這確實意味著當我們進入後期季度時，您可能會超出正常的 comp 前景。如果你能提供更多關於你如何看待全年比賽的顏色，那將非常有幫助。

Yes, Brad, this is Jay. We really focused on a 3-year geometric stack calculation. So using 2019 as the base and going forward from there. So on a full year basis, that comes in at about 104%, which is right in the range of 1 to 2 for those 3 years. And to your point, Q1 is going to be off of that by, call it, 4% or 5%, right? So it's going to be under -- it's going to be closer to 99, say, a negative 1 in Q1. So we will have to make that up in Q2, 3 and 4. When we do that math, that equates to about 105.5%, call it, on a 3-year geometric basis for those remaining quarters, which on a 3-year average will be about 1.8%. So still within the range. So that's how we're thinking of it.

是的，布拉德，這是傑伊。我們真正專注於 3 年的幾何堆棧計算。因此，以 2019 年為基礎並從那裡向前發展。所以在全年基礎上，這大約是 104%，這 3 年正好在 1 到 2 的範圍內。就你的觀點而言，Q1 將會下降 4% 或 5%，對吧？所以它會低於 - 它會接近 99，比如說，第一季度的負 1。所以我們將不得不在第二季度、第三季度和第四季度彌補這一點。當我們進行計算時，這相當於大約 105.5%，稱其為剩餘季度的 3 年幾何基礎，即 3 年平均值將約為1.8%。所以還在範圍內。這就是我們的想法。

That's very helpful, Jay. And then I thought the remodeling program sounds very encouraging. I was hoping you could just talk a little bit more about what that entails. How much you're going to be spending? And what sort of uptick you're looking for from those investments?

這很有幫助，傑伊。然後我認為重塑計劃聽起來非常鼓舞人心。我希望你能多談談這意味著什麼。你打算花多少錢？您希望從這些投資中獲得什麼樣的收益？

Sure, Brad, this is Eric. I'll take the question. We're super excited about this initiative. We have an aging fleet of stores, which will benefit from some attention. Our primary objective is to enhance the customer experience -- how the customer experiences our merchandise. We're rightsizing, repositioning categories to reflect our current new store format. One example is we're decreasing the linear fee committed to our books business and increasing the space we give to PAT. So one, I think, a very good example of what we're doing. We're also improving the impulse shopping experience. Many of our older stores do not have racetracks installed. So we're installing racetracks, enhancing existing racetracks in the stores that do have them, reconfiguring the front end, which includes adding register cues in many of these stores.

當然，布拉德，這是埃里克。我來回答這個問題。我們對這項倡議感到非常興奮。我們有一批老舊的商店，這將受益於一些關注。我們的主要目標是提升客戶體驗——客戶如何體驗我們的商品。我們正在調整規模，重新定位類別以反映我們當前的新商店格式。一個例子是我們正在降低我們圖書業務的線性費用，並增加我們給 PAT 的空間。所以，我認為，這是我們正在做的事情的一個很好的例子。我們也在改善衝動購物體驗。我們的許多老店都沒有安裝跑道。因此，我們正在安裝跑道，在擁有跑道的商店中增強現有跑道，重新配置前端，其中包括在許多這些商店中添加註冊提示。

I think keep in mind, and I'll get to the question, Brad, about what we're spending in a sec. We are in the deep discount business, and it's important that we retain what we like to refer to as our semi-lovely charm and that the store environment is part of how we communicate our value proposition to the customer.

我想記住，布拉德，我會回答這個問題，關於我們在幾秒鐘內花費了什麼。我們從事大幅折扣業務，重要的是我們要保留我們喜歡稱之為半可愛的魅力，並且商店環境是我們向客戶傳達我們的價值主張的方式的一部分。

Our spend on average is going to be $125,000 per store, and we're in test-and-learn mode now. We completed 2, and we just completed them in the last several weeks. So it's very early. We're pleased with what we're seeing so far. We expect the payback to be in line with the return we get on new stores. Not ready yet to say what that means in terms of a comp sales lift because it's just a little bit early in the process to be able to speak to that. But we'll commit in future quarters to talk more about this as we get more experience remodeling additional stores.

我們平均每家商店的支出為 125,000 美元，我們現在處於測試和學習模式。我們完成了 2 個，並且是在過去幾週才完成的。所以現在還早。我們對目前所看到的感到滿意。我們希望回報與我們在新店獲得的回報一致。還沒有準備好說出這對 comp 銷售提升意味著什麼，因為現在談論這個過程還為時過早。但隨著我們獲得更多改造更多商店的經驗，我們將在未來幾個季度承諾更多地討論這一點。

I think, Brad, the only thing -- the only other thing I'd add to it is it's only 30 stores out of 440. So it's a relatively small percentage. So it's really -- this is the year of test and learn and see what we learn from it and then we can step on the pedal with it in '23 and out years.

我想，布拉德，我唯一要補充的是它在 440 家商店中只有 30 家。所以這是一個相對較小的百分比。所以這真的是——今年是測試和學習的一年，看看我們從中學到了什麼，然後我們可以在 23 年及以後的時間裡踩下踏板。

Very helpful.

很有幫助。

Our next question comes from the line of Kate McShane from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Kate McShane。

We wondered if you could talk a little bit about traffic and how it trended throughout the quarter. Have you seen an improvement in traffic quarter-to-date? And just from a first half back half standpoint, with regards to the comp, why do you think second half will be better? Is it more commentary on what you will be lapping? Or is it the fact that we'll be further away from that March stimulus? If you could give a little color around that, that would be helpful.

我們想知道您是否可以談談流量以及整個季度的趨勢。您是否看到本季度至今的流量有所改善？從上半場後半場的角度來看，關於比賽，你認為下半場為什麼會更好？它是對你將要研磨的東西的更多評論嗎？還是我們離 3 月份的刺激計劃更遠了？如果你能給它一些顏色，那會很有幫助。

Kate, this is John. Let me answer your last question first and then maybe Jay can handle the question with regards to the fourth quarter.

凱特，這是約翰。讓我先回答你最後一個問題，然後也許傑伊可以解決關於第四節的問題。

With regards to 2022 in the back half, we just believe that, first and foremost, lapping the stimulus and getting all the stimulus out of the way is paramount to us getting back to running our normal business. But most importantly, we believe in the second half we'll be able to lap what we had talked about a lot in Q3 of last year with regards to the delayed shipments, I'll call it, the challenges we had with the late arriving import product and the holiday product that basically collided with all of our closeout goods that were domestically sourced, and we had to prioritize the way we moved our product through last year and the disruption we created. With that, we just believe we're set up and we're positioned in a much, much better shape this year with our supply chain. Our distribution centers are running at the right throughput levels that we'll be in much better position to really kick off once we clear the stimulus here that started in March of last year, and we think ran through a good part of May, almost the end of May. So I think once we see that get out of the way and the position of inventory and store in a much better condition, we'll be ready to go.

關於下半年的 2022 年，我們只是相信，首先也是最重要的是，利用刺激措施並消除所有刺激措施對於我們恢復正常業務至關重要。但最重要的是，我們相信在下半年，我們將能夠解決去年第三季度關於延遲發貨的問題，我稱之為延遲到達的挑戰進口產品和假期產品基本上與我們所有在國內採購的清倉商品發生衝突，我們必須優先考慮我們去年移動產品的方式和我們造成的破壞。有了這個，我們只是相信我們已經成立，並且今年我們的供應鏈處於更好的狀態。我們的配送中心運行在正確的吞吐量水平，一旦我們清除了從去年 3 月開始的刺激措施，我們將處於更好的位置真正開始，我們認為整個 5 月的大部分時間，幾乎結束。所以我認為，一旦我們看到一切順利，庫存和商店的位置狀況好得多，我們就會準備好出發。

And obviously, I think 1 of the big takeaways you mentioned, and I forgot about, is the deal flow is really starting to pick up, and we're starting to see some things shake loose. And I think we're in a position here, I'm very sure, where we're going to see some big benefits.

很明顯，我認為你提到的一個重要收穫是，我忘記了，交易流量真的開始回升，我們開始看到一些事情開始動搖。而且我認為我們在這裡的位置，我非常肯定，我們將看到一些巨大的好處。

And Kate, this is Jay. Just to add on to that, the first part of your question. We're not going to get too granular on the current quarter trends. So I can't give you a transaction. But I will say the comp that we're seeing so far is a little bit better than the guide. But with that said, we have -- we're coming into the heat of stimulus from a year ago. So the next 4 weeks -- 4 to 5 weeks were super strong last year because of that stimulus. And so hence, we've got a long way to go and hence why the guide is where it's at, but we're right now currently trending a little bit ahead of that.

凱特，這是傑伊。只是補充一下，你問題的第一部分。我們不會對當前的季度趨勢過於細化。所以我不能給你交易。但我會說我們目前看到的排版比指南好一點。但話雖如此，我們已經 - 我們正在進入一年前的刺激熱潮。因此，由於這種刺激，接下來的 4 週——去年的 4 到 5 周非常強勁。因此，我們還有很長的路要走，因此指南就是它所在的位置，但我們現在的趨勢是領先於此。

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Keith from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Peter Keith。

John, I wanted to ask a follow-up. You're talking about some closeouts are starting to shake loose that you're pretty excited about. And I just was hoping you could reflect back on 2021. You've been adamant that closeouts throughout the year have been pretty strong. But I'm wondering if there's a quality versus quantity issue. Maybe there's been a good quantity of closeouts, but do you feel like the last 12 months, the quality that you've been able to get has been maybe a bit depleted just given the global supply chain challenges?

約翰，我想問一個後續問題。你說的是一些清倉開始動搖，你很興奮。我只是希望你能回顧一下 2021 年。你一直堅持認為全年的收尾情況非常強勁。但我想知道是否存在質量與數量問題。也許有大量的清倉，但你是否覺得過去 12 個月，考慮到全球供應鏈的挑戰，你能夠獲得的質量可能有點耗盡？

Yes, Peter, we haven't felt that the quality of the closeouts have been impacted. I think our ability to move the goods through our network was the biggest impact we experienced last year. I think that was one of the big takeaways. Our merchants really struggled because they had the product purchased for specific times when they needed to arrive for certain ads in certain periods with the seasonal selling season, it just didn't happen. And that when you put the merchants on that back burner like that, and they can't execute what they're used to seeing, it makes it very difficult for us to put our ads right -- put the right items in the ads that we have in all the locations. So I don't think it was a quality issue.

是的，彼得，我們沒有感覺到收尾的質量受到影響。我認為我們通過網絡運輸貨物的能力是我們去年經歷的最大影響。我認為這是最重要的收穫之一。我們的商家真的很掙扎，因為他們在特定時間購買了產品，而當他們需要在季節性銷售季節的特定時期到達特定廣告時，它就是沒有發生。而且，當您像那樣讓商家退居二線，而他們無法執行他們習慣看到的事情時，我們就很難正確投放我們的廣告——在廣告中投放正確的項目我們在所有地點都有。所以我覺得不是質量問題。

Obviously, you need a couple of big hot deals and needle movers that we look for. And last year, with all of our struggles in the supply chain, we couldn't execute at that level. I believe, this year, we're seeing good quality and good quantity of inventory, and we're able to move it through the network into the stores on a timely basis. So the merchants have their momentum back and their confidence back to be able to execute, and that's why we're coming from a position of strength, and we're starting to see very recently that the closeout funnel is starting to open up as we had expected it to. It's just starting right now that we're starting to see some real strong deal flow. I don't want to get into any details. I think that's a competitive issue that I create for myself when I talk about things. So I'm going to let it just -- let it be that it is strong, and we're fairly good where we're sitting, and the numbers will show it.

顯然，您需要一些我們正在尋找的熱門交易和推動者。去年，由於我們在供應鏈中的所有掙扎，我們無法在那個級別執行。我相信，今年，我們看到了質量和數量都很好的庫存，我們能夠及時通過網絡將其轉移到商店中。因此，商家恢復了動力，恢復了執行能力的信心，這就是我們處於強勢地位的原因，而且我們最近開始看到收盤漏斗開始打開，因為我們已經預料到了。現在才剛剛開始，我們開始看到一些真正強勁的交易流。我不想談任何細節。我認為這是我在談論事情時為自己創造的競爭問題。所以我打算順其自然——順其自然，我們坐的地方相當不錯，數字會證明這一點。

Okay. All right. That's encouraging. And maybe separately, you could talk to Jay on this one, but the merchandise margin, I think up 170 basis points, so it's accelerating a little bit from Q3. Just in regard to that, is it pricing? Are you guys being able to take a little more price than you were earlier in 2021, maybe the competition has loosened up a little bit. Can you talk about how you're maybe offsetting some of these elevated freight costs?

好的。好的。這是令人鼓舞的。也許單獨地，你可以和 Jay 談談這個問題，但商品利潤率，我認為上升了 170 個基點，所以它從第三季度開始有點加速。就此而言，它是定價嗎？你們能不能拿比 2021 年初多一點的價格，也許競爭已經放鬆了一點。你能談談你可能如何抵消這些增加的運費嗎？

Yes, Peter, that's a good call in. And yes, I think to your point, we were able to take some price in the quarter. And we had talked about that on the last call so that did come to fruition. I mean obviously, it's very important that we maintain our value proposition. But yes, we -- merch margin up 170 basis points and then the overall was down 320. So the supply chain was the remainder of that. And when we look to our plan for '22, I mean we are expecting some level of expansion on merchandise margin to continue. Obviously, we're going to continue to have headwinds on the supply chain side, but those are heaviest in the first half. They start to abate in the third quarter and then the fourth quarter is really kind of a normalized historical margin.

是的，彼得，這是一個很好的電話。是的，我認為就你的觀點而言，我們能夠在本季度採取一些價格。我們在上次電話會議上談到了這一點，因此確實實現了。我的意思是，很明顯，我們保持我們的價值主張非常重要。但是，是的，我們——商品利潤率上升了 170 個基點，然後整體下降了 320 個基點。所以供應鍊是剩下的部分。當我們查看 22 年的計劃時，我的意思是我們預計商品利潤率將繼續出現一定程度的擴張。顯然，我們將繼續在供應鏈方面遇到阻力，但上半年的阻力最大。他們在第三季度開始減弱，然後第四季度真的是一種正常化的歷史差距。

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Boss from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Matthew Boss。

Great. So John, on the top line, maybe could you just speak to any behavior changes that you're seeing from your low income consumer, potentially tied to inflation or any trade down that you're seeing yet from the middle-income consumer. And Jay, tied to that, as we bridge the first quarter down mid-teens to that full year flat to up 1 comp, are you embedding today's macro backdrop? Or are you baking in any impact from potentially higher gas prices as the year progresses?

偉大的。所以約翰，最重要的是，也許你能談談你從低收入消費者那裡看到的任何行為變化，這可能與通貨膨脹有關，或者你從中等收入消費者那裡看到的任何交易下降。傑伊，與此相關，當我們將第一季度從十幾歲中期縮小到全年持平到上升 1 comp 時，你是否嵌入了今天的宏觀背景？或者隨著時間的推移，你是否受到了潛在的更高汽油價格的影響？

Yes, Matt, this is John. Let me answer the first question with regards to the lower-income consumer. What we can see and what we feel mainly is we believe that the very low-end consumer, people who are on fixed incomes, people who are on welfare, they're getting crunched pretty good right now, and they've been getting crunched for a while. When you go grocery shopping, you get a big shocker now and look at the price, where it was before, where it is today. And obviously, with the gas spike, most recently in the last month, that just adds more pain for these folks.

是的，馬特，這是約翰。讓我回答關於低收入消費者的第一個問題。我們能看到和感受到的主要是，我們相信非常低端的消費者，靠固定收入的人，靠福利的人，他們現在吃得很緊，而且他們一直在吃苦一陣子。當你去雜貨店購物時，你現在會大吃一驚，看看價格，以前的價格，今天的價格。顯然，最近一次是在上個月，隨著汽油飆升，這只會給這些人增加更多的痛苦。

So I do believe that the folks who are on a very tight fixed income, we're seeing them get crunched a little bit. Fortunately, for us, it's not a huge percentage of our business. We're not in -- we don't take EBT cards. We don't have perishable foods in our stores. So we've always said we have nondiscretionary items in our stores, but it's somewhere between 22% to 25% of our business. The rest is all discretionary. So we cater to a very wide range of folks in our market. I don't think we've seen the trade down effect hit us yet, but I got a real strong feeling that's coming pretty soon once people start putting gas in their tanks for the 3, 4, 5 weeks in a row and pay for groceries, not pay higher utility cost. I believe it's coming, and it's something that everyone's going to see here in very short order. And I think we're positioned -- we're feeling that we're in the right position right now and starting to see the deal flow that's going to benefit us in the second half of the year.

所以我確實相信那些固定收入非常緊張的人，我們看到他們有點吃緊了。幸運的是，對我們來說，這並不是我們業務的很大一部分。我們不在——我們不接受 EBT 卡。我們的商店沒有易腐爛的食物。所以我們一直說我們的商店裡有非自由支配的物品，但它占我們業務的 22% 到 25% 之間。其餘的都是酌情決定的。因此，我們迎合了市場上非常廣泛的人群。我認為我們還沒有看到降價交易對我們造成的影響，但我有一種真正強烈的感覺，一旦人們開始連續 3、4、5 周向他們的油箱中加油並支付費用，這種感覺很快就會到來雜貨，不用支付更高的水電費。我相信它即將到來，而且每個人都會在很短的時間內在這裡看到它。而且我認為我們的定位 - 我們覺得我們現在處於正確的位置，並開始看到將在今年下半年使我們受益的交易流。

Yes. And Matt, to answer your question about the guidance. I mean, obviously, the comp guidance is right in the sweet spot of our long-term outlook, the 1 to 2 comp. We're a little more cautious about Q1 just because it seems like it's been such a dynamic environment with all these factors that we're talking about with the consumer right now. To John's point, we're not necessarily seeing that trade-down effect yet. But historically, that has happened. And we have great deals. So yes, I don't think there's anything really -- for the macro items that are out of our control, we haven't embedded additional conservatism per se in this guidance other than maybe a little bit in Q1.

是的。 Matt 來回答你關於指南的問題。我的意思是，很明顯，comp 指南恰好處於我們長期前景的最佳位置，即 1 比 2 comp。我們對第一季度更加謹慎，因為它似乎是一個充滿活力的環境，我們現在正在與消費者討論所有這些因素。就 John 的觀點而言，我們不一定會看到這種折價效應。但從歷史上看，這已經發生了。我們有很多優惠。所以是的，我不認為真的有什麼——對於我們無法控制的宏觀項目，我們沒有在本指南中嵌入額外的保守主義本身，除了在第一季度可能有一點。

Great. And then maybe just 1 follow-up on the expense front. Any reinvestments to consider this year? Or just how best to think about the historical, I think it was 1 to 1.5 comps for leverage as we think about wages, and maybe just any puts and takes on the expense front.

偉大的。然後可能只是在費用方面進行 1 次跟進。今年要考慮再投資嗎？或者只是如何最好地考慮歷史，我認為當我們考慮工資時，槓桿是 1 到 1.5 倍，也許只是任何看跌期權和支出方面的支出。

Yes, Matt, this is Jay. When we look at it, we're expecting a little slight deleverage on our SG&A, call it, 10 or 20 basis points, I would say, in our plan versus last year. And we have made -- '21, we made significant investments at the store level and the DCs, but that's obviously captured in the gross margin on the DC front. But we did make significant investments in the stores. We made investments this year related to the merit increase for the year. But we're not expecting a major step-up in '22 like we saw in '21. We will have some additional investments around just some simple things like starting to get the teams together again, so with travel and with meetings. So we have a little deleverage from that. We've got a little deleverage from the incentive comp, which obviously in '21 wasn't as high as it will be at least in the plan for '22.

是的，馬特，這是傑伊。當我們看它時，我們預計我們的 SG&A 會略微去槓桿化，我會說，在我們的計劃中與去年相比，10 或 20 個基點。我們已經 - '21，我們在商店級別和 DC 上進行了大量投資，但這顯然體現在 DC 方面的毛利率中。但我們確實對商店進行了大量投資。我們今年進行了與當年業績增長相關的投資。但我們並不期望像我們在 21 年看到的那樣在 22 年有重大進展。我們將圍繞一些簡單的事情進行一些額外的投資，比如開始讓團隊重新聚集在一起，以及旅行和會議。所以我們有一點去槓桿化。我們從激勵補償中得到了一些去槓桿化，這顯然在 21 年沒有達到至少 22 年計劃中的那麼高。

Our next question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Simeon Gutman。

This is Michael Kessler on for Simeon. I wanted to ask about the '22 guidance in a broader sense. If you look at the implied midpoint for EBIT, the CAGR from using 2018 or 2019 as a baseline, point to around 3-ish, 3.5% annualized growth, which is below where I think you have historically been on a growth rate and what we might expect, and there's been a lot of puts and takes over that period of time. So as we think about 2022 and then moving onwards, is this the right -- potentially the right new baseline level of operating income for the business? Is there a potential for some, I guess, recapture of growth in 2023 to the extent that some of the headwinds that are still playing out in 2022 abate? Just kind of how do we think about 2022 in a broader sense of how you plan the business and the go-forward growth profile?

這是 Simeon 的 Michael Kessler。我想從更廣泛的意義上詢問'22 指南。如果你看一下 EBIT 的隱含中點，使用 2018 年或 2019 年作為基線的 CAGR 指向大約 3-ish，3.5% 的年化增長率，這低於我認為你歷史上的增長率和我們的增長率可能會期望，並且在那段時間裡有很多看跌期權和接管。因此，當我們考慮 2022 年並向前邁進時，這是否正確——可能是企業營業收入的正確新基線水平？我猜，某些人是否有可能在 2023 年重新獲得增長，以至於 2022 年仍在發揮作用的一些逆風減弱？從更廣泛的意義上講，我們如何看待 2022 年的業務規劃和未來增長狀況？

Yes, Michael, I think the biggest thing to focus on is the impact of the gross margin when you look back at 2018 and '19, this year, there's significant pressure in the margin that we discussed in pretty great detail for 2022. We totally expect that for 2023, we'll be back to our long-term algo and back to very, very close to the 40% gross margin. So the EBIT margin should be back to very close to what historically they've been, and the growth should be pretty consistent as well. So this year is just contracted a little bit because of our gross margin pressure that we have with the supply chain costs that we have to work through through the first 2 to 3 quarters of this year.

是的，邁克爾，我認為最重要的事情是回顧 2018 年和 19 年時毛利率的影響，今年，我們非常詳細地討論了 2022 年的毛利率壓力。我們完全預計到 2023 年，我們將回到我們的長期算法，回到非常、非常接近 40% 的毛利率。因此，息稅前利潤率應該回到非常接近歷史水平的水平，並且增長也應該非常穩定。所以今年只是收縮了一點，因為我們必須在今年前 2 到 3 個季度解決供應鏈成本帶來的毛利率壓力。

Okay. Great. And maybe just a quick follow-up on your last point there on that 40% gross margin target and goal to get back there. Can you first talk a little bit about, I guess, what are the biggest levers of how you're offsetting the increased transportation and supply chain costs.

好的。偉大的。也許只是對你最後一點關於 40% 的毛利率目標和回到那裡的目標的快速跟進。你能先談談，我想，你如何抵消增加的運輸和供應鏈成本的最大槓桿是什麼？

I know price, and we talked about the merchandise margin expansion earlier. How big of a role is that playing versus other mitigation actions? And then just 1 last one on the pricing that you have taken. Any response from the customers as far as the recognition, trading within the store, or anything to call out as far as the willingness of the consumer to accept those higher prices?

我知道價格，我們之前談到了商品利潤率的擴張。與其他緩解措施相比，它的作用有多大？然後只有最後一個關於您所採取的定價。就認可度、店內交易或消費者願意接受這些更高的價格而言，顧客有什麼反應嗎？

Let me take the easy one first, and I'll give the second part to Eric. With regards to the increased pricing in the stores, that's obviously been very, very selective on our behalf, and it's all been comp shopped against competitors. So we still maintain the value proposition. So for instance, if Walmart didn't go up an item, neither do we. If Walmart finally went up or someone else went up that had a comparable item, we would go up accordingly, but we didn't keep the same or similar profile from a value proposition. So that's not something that we're losing and we're -- that's our model. We keep -- we stay true to that very heavily. So the merchants watch that each and every day from a value proposition. And I can let Eric talk about some of the puts and takes on the margin.

讓我先看簡單的部分，然後我將第二部分交給埃里克。關於商店價格上漲，這顯然代表我們非常非常有選擇性，而且都是與競爭對手競爭。所以我們仍然維持價值主張。因此，舉例來說，如果沃爾瑪不漲價，我們也不會漲價。如果沃爾瑪最終上漲或其他有類似商品的上漲，我們也會相應上漲，但我們並沒有從價值主張中保留相同或相似的形象。所以這不是我們正在失去的東西，我們是——那是我們的模型。我們堅持——我們非常堅定地堅持這一點。因此，商家每天都從價值主張中觀察這一點。我可以讓埃里克談談一些看跌期權和保證金。

Michael, you mentioned, what are the most significant actions we're taking to mitigate the gross margin pressure. And import container cost is, by far and away, the #1 action and the #1 incremental expense in terms of how it impacts margin. John referenced in his opening remarks that we started to negotiate container contracts much earlier this year than in a typical year, really several months earlier. We've made a ton of progress. We're very pleased with the support that we're seeing from the carrier community. We've started a number of new meaningful relationships. We significantly increased the overall capacity at contract rates. In previous quarters, we've been discussing how reliant we've been on the spot market. In 2021, about 80% of our import freight was procured on the spot market. In 2022, we expect that to be less than 20%. So the inverse of what we experienced in '21.

邁克爾，你提到過，我們為減輕毛利率壓力而採取的最重要的行動是什麼。到目前為止，進口集裝箱成本是影響利潤率的第一大行動和第一大增量支出。約翰在開場白中提到，今年我們開始談判集裝箱合同的時間比往年要早得多，實際上是早了幾個月。我們取得了很大的進步。我們對運營商社區的支持感到非常高興。我們已經開始了許多新的有意義的關係。我們以合同價格顯著提高了整體產能。在前幾個季度，我們一直在討論我們對現貨市場的依賴程度。 2021 年，我們約 80% 的進口運費是在現貨市場採購的。到 2022 年，我們預計這一比例將低於 20%。所以與我們在 21 年所經歷的相反。

The costs that we're expecting to see in '22 are certainly higher than our historical average, but they're significantly lower than the spot market rates we were experiencing in '21. And we believe the rates are in line with where the market -- our sense of where the market generally is for this next year. The reason why you're seeing kind of more of the benefit in the back half of the year is our contract year starts in Q2. It starts actually in May. So we began to experience the benefits in Q3 and then kind of the full benefit of those new contract rates in Q4.

我們期望在 22 年看到的成本肯定高於我們的歷史平均水平，但它們明顯低於我們在 21 年遇到的現貨市場利率。我們相信這些利率與市場情況一致——我們對明年市場總體情況的看法。你在今年下半年看到更多好處的原因是我們的合同年從第二季度開始。它實際上從五月開始。所以我們開始體驗第三季度的好處，然後在第四季度體驗到這些新合同費率的全部好處。

Our next question comes from the line of Scot Ciccarelli from Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Scot Ciccarelli。

Scot Ciccarelli. It sounds like you guys were obviously negatively surprised by the magnitude of supply chain issues throughout the year. John, you doubled down on that idea with your comments about the difficulty in flowing goods. I think Eric was just talking about kind of the change from spot to contract rate. But can you guys provide any other examples, specific examples as to why the supply chain issues won't be as substantial in '22, at least once we get past the first quarter here?

蘇格蘭奇卡雷利。聽起來你們顯然對全年供應鏈問題的嚴重性感到驚訝。約翰，你對貨物流動困難的評論加倍強調了這個想法。我認為埃里克只是在談論從現貨到合同利率的變化。但是你們能否提供任何其他示例，具體示例，說明為什麼供應鏈問題在 22 年不會那麼嚴重，至少一旦我們在這裡過了第一季度？

Yes. Let me answer a little bit, Scot, and then Eric may have to add some fine-tuning points to it. But with regards to why do we feel better than we did last year, I think very easy put, we've invested a lot into our distribution center network. We've made a lot of changes. We made process changes. We've basically invested in a new Head of Distribution Center to run the business, who we think is more able to do and grow with the company.

是的。讓我稍微回答一下，Scot，然後 Eric 可能需要添加一些微調點。但至於為什麼我們感覺比去年好，我認為很簡單，我們在配送中心網絡上投入了大量資金。我們做了很多改變。我們進行了流程更改。我們基本上已經投資了一位新的配送中心主管來經營業務，我們認為他更有能力與公司一起成長。

But I think the biggest takeaway is we invested a lot in labor to get our headcount where it needed to be and then invested in processes to increase efficiencies in the buildings, and we're heavily focused on that today. We feel good where we're sitting. And obviously, there's -- one piece is the distribution center operations, but the other piece is the inability to move your import freight in a timely fashion and having it collide with all your other product and then have to try to work through the inefficiency we created on the arrival of goods that are late to the party and trying to get them to the stores.

但我認為最大的收穫是，我們在勞動力上投入了大量資金，以將員工人數安排在需要的位置，然後投資於流程以提高建築物的效率，而我們今天非常關注這一點。我們坐的地方感覺很好。很明顯，有一個是配送中心的運營，另一個是無法及時移動您的進口貨物並使其與您的所有其他產品發生碰撞，然後必須努力解決我們的低效率問題在聚會遲到的貨物到達並試圖將它們送到商店時創建。

So with those things behind us, I would tell you, we feel very confident where we're at. We were successful in Q4. And I think, as I said in my opening remarks, we feel well-positioned for our spring selling season, and we focus very heavily on the import container movement early in the season and we got our goods into the funnel. And we're positioned well, and we know -- we learned a lot through a lot of pain we went through last year. And I would tell you, I think we know how to avoid those pitfalls going forward. And I think the contract discussion Eric had a few minutes ago is vital to making sure we've got the right contract commitment and the right container commitment to move the goods in a timely fashion.

因此，我會告訴你，有了這些事情，我們對自己所處的位置非常有信心。我們在第四季度取得了成功。而且我認為，正如我在開場白中所說的那樣，我們為春季銷售季節做好了準備，我們非常關注季節初期的進口集裝箱運動，我們的貨物進入了漏斗。我們的定位很好，我們知道——我們從去年經歷的很多痛苦中學到了很多東西。我會告訴你，我認為我們知道如何避免這些陷阱。我認為埃里克幾分鐘前進行的合同討論對於確保我們獲得正確的合同承諾和正確的集裝箱承諾以及時運送貨物至關重要。

Yes. I think, Scot, John did a great job articulating some of the details here. And I would just say, when I answered Michael's question, I was more focused on the cost implications of these contracts, but the capacity benefits are huge for us. We certainly scrambled and worked very quickly in Q2 moving into Q3 of last year to make sure we secured capacity, but the capacity secured at spot market rates. Now we have contracted capacity at a more favorable rate. So that capacity means that we can flow our goods more fluidly when we need them, which helps with throughput in our distribution centers as well because we don't get the log jam of goods arriving kind of out of cycle when we're supposed to get those goods and having to deal with kind of the spikes of inbound associated with that.

是的。我認為，Scot，John 在這裡闡述了一些細節，做得很好。我只想說，當我回答邁克爾的問題時，我更關注這些合同的成本影響，但容量收益對我們來說是巨大的。在進入去年第三季度的第二季度，我們肯定會爭先恐後地快速工作，以確保我們獲得產能，但產能是以現貨市場價格獲得的。現在我們以更優惠的價格簽約產能。因此，這種能力意味著我們可以在需要時更流暢地流動我們的貨物，這也有助於提高我們配送中心的吞吐量，因為我們不會在我們應該到達的時候出現貨物的日誌堵塞。獲得這些商品並不得不處理與之相關的入境高峰。

Just I guess I'll just really quickly add on the distribution side, and John touched on this, we did invest in people, including leadership in many different important positions in our organization. We invested in people from a wage standpoint. We've made numerous process improvements over the course of the last 9 or 10 months, including investing in our systems on the IT side and making adjustments to parameters and making adjustments to systems and handheld devices, we've talked about in previous calls. And just a final note is we continue to invest in material handling equipment of buildings. Our primary focus has been in the commerce facility. So we're continuing those investments to help that building with throughput, with speed, with efficiency, and the York expansion is also a reflection of getting both capacity to service more stores out of that building and more throughput to service spikes in demand.

我想我會很快添加到分銷方面，John 談到了這一點，我們確實投資於人員，包括我們組織中許多不同重要職位的領導層。我們從工資的角度投資於人。在過去的 9 或 10 個月中，我們進行了大量流程改進，包括在 IT 方面投資我們的系統，調整參數以及調整系統和手持設備，我們在之前的電話會議中談到過。最後要注意的是，我們將繼續投資於建築物的物料搬運設備。我們的主要重點是商業設施。因此，我們將繼續進行這些投資，以幫助提高吞吐量、速度和效率，而約克的擴張也反映出既有能力為大樓外的更多商店提供服務，又有更多的吞吐量來服務需求高峰。

Our next question comes from the line of Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的愛德華凱利。

I was curious about on the inventory side. It looks like you ended the year with inventory per store up solidly above 2019 now. Just any additional color here. I don't know how much of this is -- I think you did carry some product forward from holiday that kind of came in late. I don't know how much of that is just higher acquisition cost versus -- just generally, John, like how do you think inventory stands today in terms of like how you would like it to be as we start thinking about sales and quality of what's available in the coming months.

我對庫存方面很好奇。看起來您在今年年底時每家商店的庫存現在穩步高於 2019 年。這裡只是任何額外的顏色。我不知道其中有多少——我認為你確實從假期中攜帶了一些遲到的產品。我不知道其中有多少只是更高的購置成本——一般來說，約翰，就像你認為今天的庫存情況如何，就像我們開始考慮銷售和質量時你希望的那樣未來幾個月有什麼可用的。

Ed, I'll take part of it and let Jay give you the technicalities. With regards to the overall inventories, the inventories are actually inflated over 2019, '18, 2020, whatever year you want to look at just because of the increased supply chain costs that are caught up in the cost of the product. So I would tell you the actual in-store inventory over 2019 would not be higher in the store. So that would be not a right number because we were actually a lot higher in '19 than I would have liked to seen ourselves. But there is obviously the inflationary pressures on the product. So there's some of that embedded in the numbers that we have at the end of 2021.

Ed，我將參與其中，讓 Jay 為您介紹技術細節。關於整體庫存，庫存實際上在 2019 年、2018 年、2020 年被誇大了，無論你想看哪一年，只是因為產品成本中的供應鏈成本增加。所以我會告訴你，2019 年的實際店內庫存不會更高。所以這不是一個正確的數字，因為我們在 19 年的表現實際上比我希望看到的要高得多。但產品明顯存在通脹壓力。因此，我們在 2021 年底擁有的數字中包含了其中一些內容。

But overall, I would expect that we would see increased inventory levels compared to '21 in the first half of the year, be pretty significant with the increased supply chain costs rolling out eventually after the first half of the year and then just the inflationary pressure of the goods. I would expect you to probably see close to 25% increases year-over-year and then moderating to about store growth in the back half of 2022. But the overall inventory position, we feel really, really strong where we're sitting. And obviously, like I said, the deal flow is a byproduct of that as well.

但總的來說，我預計與今年上半年的 21 年相比，我們會看到庫存水平有所增加，隨著供應鏈成本的增加最終在今年上半年之後推出，然後只是通脹壓力，這一點非常顯著的貨物。我希望您可能會看到同比增長近 25%，然後在 2022 年下半年放緩至大約商店增長。但我們感覺整體庫存狀況非常非常強勁。顯然，就像我說的那樣，交易流程也是它的副產品。

Okay. And then the other thing I wanted to ask you about is on the flyer side. Can you just talk about how -- like the issues that you've had at supply chain has impacted the product that you've been able to put into the flyer and I guess, potentially how that also may play some role in store traffic.

好的。然後我想問你的另一件事是傳單方面。你能不能談談 - 比如你在供應鏈中遇到的問題已經影響了你已經能夠放入傳單中的產品，我想，這可能如何也可能在商店流量中發揮一些作用。

Sure. Ed, that's obviously a bigger challenge than one might think. But the time we -- the lead time we have from going to press and putting the flyer to print and having goods available in the DCs is very integral and the merchants be able to advertise a product they've purchased and to give us continuity and confidence that goods will be here. So that definitely created some issues in the back half of last year as well that we had to navigate through.

當然。埃德，這顯然是一個比人們想像的更大的挑戰。但是我們 - 從印刷和打印傳單到在 DC 中提供商品的準備時間是非常重要的，商家能夠宣傳他們購買的產品並為我們提供連續性和相信貨物會在這裡。因此，這肯定在去年下半年造成了一些問題，我們也必須解決這些問題。

It wasn't for a lack of product per se, but it's a lack of continuity in all 3 buildings to be able to put the flyer together. And then the timing of receiving the product. Obviously, seasonal product that wasn't here in time, we couldn't put it in print. You weren't sure if it is going to be here in time. So that obviously created some challenges in 2021 that we don't expect to have in 2022, and we plan to be back at a normal cadence when the merchants are ready to put an ad together that we know where the product is and when it's going to be here and available for the stores on a timely basis. So that is a big part for us and a big part of our confidence going forward as well.

這並不是因為缺乏產品本身，而是因為所有 3 座建築物都缺乏連續性，無法將傳單放在一起。然後是收到產品的時間。顯然，沒有及時到貨的季節性產品，我們無法印刷。你不確定它是否會及時到達這裡。因此，這顯然在 2021 年造成了一些我們預計在 2022 年不會遇到的挑戰，我們計劃在商家準備好將廣告放在一起時恢復正常節奏，我們知道產品的位置和去向及時到達這裡並為商店提供服務。所以這對我們來說很重要，也是我們未來信心的很大一部分。

Our next question comes from the line of Randy Konik from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Randy Konik。

This is Corey Tarlowe on for Randy Konik. First, on customer acquisition efforts. Can you maybe highlight some of these recent efforts to enhance new customer acquisition? And then how has retail customer traffic conversion been to Ollie's Army?

這是 Randy Konik 的 Corey Tarlowe。首先，在客戶獲取方面的努力。您能否強調一下最近為加強新客戶獲取所做的一些努力？那麼零售客戶流量如何轉化為 Ollie's Army？

Sure, Corey. With regards to our -- we obviously, as we said, we've been working on a, I'll call it, a digital transformation at Ollie's in what we need to do differently than just print on the long term with the changes that the world is going through. Obviously, I think 3 of the strongest pieces that we've introduced, and we feel good about is using StitcherAds either on Facebook or Instagram. We think that's been very powerful. Google Local and then using software with Cardlytics. And I think those are our biggest 3 pieces right now that we've been able to see a benefit on from a digital perspective.

當然，科里。關於我們 - 我們顯然，正如我們所說，我們一直在努力，我稱之為 Ollie's 的數字化轉型，我們需要採取不同的方式，而不僅僅是長期印刷變化世界正在經歷。顯然，我認為我們推出的最強大的 3 件作品是在 Facebook 或 Instagram 上使用 StitcherAds。我們認為這是非常強大的。 Google Local，然後使用帶有 Cardlytics 的軟件。我認為這些是我們目前最大的 3 個部分，我們已經能夠從數字角度看到好處。

In 2022, we're going to be testing TikTok, which I would have never thought I'd say that out loud; YouTube; Pinterest; and using an influencer in certain areas that work for Ollie's that we'll continue to work through. But print is still very, very important for Ollie's. We're still committed heavily to print, but we understand that the customer is changing, and we need to change with the customer. So the digital world is where it's all going, but we still have our fair share of older customers so we're going to continue to do both. And we just have a small decrease in the print as we continue to invest in the digital front.

2022 年，我們將測試 TikTok，我從沒想過我會大聲說出來； YouTube;趣味網；並在為 Ollie's 工作的某些領域使用有影響力的人，我們將繼續努力。但印刷品對 Ollie's 來說仍然非常非常重要。我們仍然致力於印刷，但我們知道客戶在變化，我們需要與客戶一起改變。所以數字世界是一切的發展方向，但我們仍然有相當一部分老客戶，所以我們將繼續做這兩件事。隨著我們繼續投資於數字前沿，我們的印刷量略有減少。

Right. And then on the retail traffic conversion to Ollie's Army?

正確的。然後將零售流量轉換為 Ollie's Army？

It's -- We're strong in conversion compared to previous years, to answer your question, Cory. So we're seeing better conversion at the point of sale than in any previous year.

這是 - 與往年相比，我們的轉化率很高，可以回答你的問題，Cory。因此，我們在銷售點看到比以往任何一年都更好的轉化率。

Great. And then just a follow-up on deal flow. I believe you mentioned strength in health and beauty, automotive and pets. Are there any categories that have been a little bit more difficult?

偉大的。然後只是對交易流程的跟進。我相信你提到了健康和美容、汽車和寵物方面的優勢。有沒有難度更高的類別？

As of most recent, Cory, I would say -- and some of this is just timing of deal flows and how deals come about, but I would tell you in some areas in our food category, it's been a little tighter than we'd like to see it. Food and the timing of some of our candy deals have been a little tighter this year than we'd like to see from that perspective. But we're working on some other value programs to try to augment any pressures we have with these 2 categories. But other than that, it's been pretty free flowing and pretty powerful.

最近，科里，我會說——其中一些只是交易流動的時間和交易是如何發生的，但我會告訴你，在我們食品類別的某些領域，它比我們之前的要緊一些喜歡看。從這個角度來看，今年食品和我們一些糖果交易的時間比我們希望看到的要緊一些。但我們正在研究其他一些價值計劃，以嘗試增加我們對這兩個類別的壓力。但除此之外，它非常流暢且非常強大。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Hamblin from Craig-Hallum Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 Craig-Hallum Capital 的 Jeremy Hamblin。

I wanted to just start first with the store openings and understanding better the expectations around the cadence of your openings through the course of the year kind of starting with Q1 first half and moving into the back half of the year?

我想先從開店開始，更好地了解你對開店節奏的期望，從上半年開始到下半年？

Yes. Jeremy, this is Jay. And we talked about the openings by quarter in the prepared remarks.

是的。傑里米，這是傑伊。我們在準備好的評論中按季度討論了職位空缺。

Can you just refresh them because I didn't capture all of them, that would be great.

你能不能刷新它們，因為我沒有捕捉到所有這些，那太好了。

Yes, for sure. We have -- we're planning 8 stores in the first quarter, 12 in the second quarter, 17 in the third quarter and between 9 and 11 in the fourth quarter.

是肯定的。我們 - 我們計劃在第一季度開設 8 家門店，第二季度 12 家，第三季度 17 家，第四季度 9 到 11 家。

Okay. Great. And then just coming back to the gross margin for a second. So I think back in December, you were looking at Q1 gross margins in like 35% flat range. It looks like you're expecting a little bit better than that now at 35.8%. But in terms of thinking about the rest of the year, I think it sounds like you're expecting it back to be kind of 39% plus by Q4. Is there going to be a similar type of year-over-year decline in Q2? And then, I guess, a significant improvement by Q3, but still down year-over-year? Any color that you could share there would be helpful.

好的。偉大的。然後再回到毛利率一秒鐘。所以我回想在 12 月，你看到第一季度的毛利率在 35% 左右的持平範圍內。看起來您的預期比現在的 35.8% 好一點。但就今年剩餘時間的考慮而言，我認為聽起來你預計到第四季度它會回到 39% 以上。第二季度是否會出現類似的同比下降？然後，我猜，到第三季度有顯著改善，但同比仍然下降？您可以在那里分享的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Yes. So we are expecting the year-over-year decline in gross margin in Q1 and Q2 to be consistent. We expect some sequential improvement in Q3 so maybe it's about half of that. And then we get back to normal in Q4.

是的。因此，我們預計第一季度和第二季度毛利率的同比下降將保持一致。我們預計第三季度會有一些連續改善，所以可能只有一半左右。然後我們在第四季度恢復正常。

Got it. And then last one for me. On the labor side, in terms of wage pressure that's out there, but not just wage pressure, also retention of employees. Can you provide some color on the turnover you're seeing, kind of the year-over-year hourly wage cost increase and whether or not you feel like you need to take it even higher the rest of the year? Or what's embedded within your plan?

知道了。然後最後一個給我。在勞動力方面，就存在的工資壓力而言，但不僅僅是工資壓力，還有留住員工。你能否提供一些關於你所看到的營業額的顏色，比如小時工資成本的同比增長，以及你是否覺得你需要在今年餘下的時間裡提高它？或者你的計劃中嵌入了什麼？

Jeremy, this is John. With regards to the hourly, employee at store level has and continues to be a very transient worker. We're making some changes in shifting the thought process between part-time versus full-time employees. But in terms of the overall hourly investment, we've always said we look at it and we adjust it market by market by market.

傑里米，這是約翰。就小時工而言，商店級別的員工已經並將繼續是一個非常短暫的工人。我們正在改變兼職員工與全職員工之間的思維過程。但就整體每小時投資而言，我們一直說我們看它，我們逐個市場調整它。

We don't just make a global change and we have made a lot of investments last year in the stores in certain markets where it was necessary, but we just don't make a blanket adjustment. We react every time that something happens. So we don't- we don't sit on our laurels and just not do anything. So we don't expect any major shifts this year in incremental pay at store level, and we don't have anything like that baked into our plans. We've had what we have, what I'd say, a moderate increase, and we've done a lot of changes already in 2021 that we're carrying through in 2022 and we're working on increasing efficiency in the stores as well as the DCs to be able to pay for some of that. But that's what we're looking at. And the turnover is not much different at the hourly associate level than it has been historically from our perspective. A little bit harder to find people to work now whether it be for unemployment or it's people out of the market, but I think that's going to be changing here in short order as well.

我們不只是做出全球性的改變，去年我們在某些有必要的市場對商店進行了大量投資，但我們只是不進行全面調整。每當有事情發生時，我們都會做出反應。所以我們不會 - 我們不會固步自封，什麼也不做。因此，我們預計今年商店層面的增量薪酬不會有任何重大變化，而且我們的計劃中也沒有類似的內容。我們已經實現了我們所擁有的，我想說的是適度增長，我們已經在 2021 年做了很多改變，我們將在 2022 年進行這些改變，我們正在努力提高商店的效率，因為以及 DC 能夠支付其中的一部分費用。但這就是我們正在看的。從我們的角度來看，每小時助理級別的營業額與歷史上的營業額沒有太大差異。現在找人工作有點困難，無論是因為失業還是人們退出市場，但我認為這也會在短期內發生變化。

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Lejuez from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Paul Lejuez。

Can you talk about what percent of your sales are currently on closeout product? How did that look in '21 versus '19? And just how you're thinking about that for 2022 and beyond. And then kind of a similar question in terms of the percent of your goods that are imported, what did that look like in '21 versus '19? And how are you thinking about it in '22?

您能談談目前清倉產品佔您銷售額的百分比嗎？ 21 年與 19 年相比，這看起來如何？以及您對 2022 年及以後的看法。然後是關於你的進口商品百分比的類似問題，21 年和 19 年的情況如何？你在 22 年是怎麼想的？

Yes. Paul, with regards to our closeouts in '21 versus our closeouts in 2019, we were at about a 65% closeout rate in 2021. 2019 was probably close to 70%, which will be closer to our historical average that we as a company strive to be at. I would tell you, in 2022, we're going to do everything in our power to be at 70% closeout because that's what makes us model special. I think there's going to be a big opportunity in that area. So somewhere between 65% and 70% in 2022 is what I would project from a closeout perspective. Don't expect a big change in our import component that we work on. I think our imports come in at about 18% of our overall business. I'd love to see imports down to 10%, but I'm sure that won't be able to happen. But we'll be pretty consistent in our overall metrics in terms of the breakdown of our product and how we move it.

是的。保羅，關於我們在 21 年的關閉與 2019 年的關閉，我們在 2021 年的關閉率約為 65%。2019 年可能接近 70%，這將接近我們作為一家公司努力爭取的歷史平均水平在。我會告訴你，到 2022 年，我們將竭盡全力實現 70% 的收尾，因為這就是讓我們的模型與眾不同的原因。我認為在那個領域會有很大的機會。因此，從收尾的角度來看，我預計 2022 年會達到 65% 到 70% 之間。不要指望我們正在處理的導入組件會發生重大變化。我認為我們的進口約占我們整體業務的 18%。我很樂意看到進口下降到 10%，但我確信這不會發生。但我們在產品細分和移動方式方面的總體指標非常一致。

Got it. And then just a follow-up. Sorry if I missed it, but as you think about your comp expectations for the rest of the year beyond 1Q, how are you thinking about it from a traffic versus ticket perspective? Like how much does pricing play a role in the comps that you expect to achieve in quarters 2 through 4?

知道了。然後只是跟進。抱歉，如果我錯過了它，但是當你考慮你對今年餘下時間超過 1Q 的補償預期時，你如何從流量與票務的角度考慮它？比如定價在您期望在第 2 季度到第 4 季度實現的業績中發揮多大作用？

Yes. I think, Paul, we don't look at the transaction versus the ticket. We look at the value in the deal. What motivates the consumer to come in the store. So it's the strength of our deals. And I think, obviously, another piece that we've talked about is our ability to get our product in the stores on a timely basis, in the seasons that we need to have them in, to be able to motivate the consumer. So that's a big piece that will be the driver to our business, but it's really what drives the customers, the value that we give to them and the deals we give to them. So being late to holiday with your toys and late to holiday with your seasonal doesn't help your business. And obviously, when that's late, something else gets substituted for it and sits behind, doesn't get into the stores as well. So with us being able to get our throughput levels for that today and get everything to the stores timely, that's going to be the benefit we're going to be able to bring to the bottom line.

是的。我認為，保羅，我們不看交易與門票。我們看交易的價值。是什麼促使消費者來到商店。所以這是我們交易的優勢。而且我認為，很明顯，我們討論的另一件事是我們能夠在我們需要的季節及時將我們的產品送到商店，以激勵消費者。所以這是一個很大的部分，它將成為我們業務的驅動力，但它確實是驅動客戶的因素，我們給他們的價值以及我們給他們的交易。因此，帶著玩具遲到和季節性假期遲到對您的業務沒有幫助。很明顯，當它晚了，其他東西就會被替代並落在後面，也不會進入商店。因此，我們今天能夠獲得我們的吞吐量水平並及時將所有東西送到商店，這將是我們能夠帶來的好處。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian McNamara from Berenberg Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Berenberg Capital Markets 的 Brian McNamara。

So having 80% of your import freight in the spot market in '21 flipped to less than 20% in 2022. I'm curious, is that a permanent change away from your previous opportunistic approach? Or are you simply adapting temporarily to some shorter-term supply-demand dynamics? And if so, what's the risk that you're contracting at a potentially inopportune time as capacity comes back online and rates and such normalize?

因此，21 年現貨市場 80% 的進口運費在 2022 年下降到不到 20%。我很好奇，這是否是您以前的機會主義方法的永久性改變？或者你只是暫時適應一些短期的供需動態？如果是這樣，隨著容量恢復在線和費率等正常化，您在可能不合時宜的時間簽訂合同的風險是什麼？

I think that the super -- Brian, the super honest answer to your question is, I don't know. I don't know. We really don't know what this year is going to bring or what future years are going to bring. It's a super dynamic market out there. We're doing some things to somewhat hedge our bet on this, leaving enough volume out there for spot market to be opportunistic, a little bit of flexibility around kind of how we're writing our contracts as well. So I'm not really sure. I know that there were some companies out there doing multiyear deals. We resisted that and said we're going to contract just for the 1 year. And we'll see what happens.

我認為超級——布賴恩，對你的問題的超級誠實的回答是，我不知道。我不知道。我們真的不知道今年會發生什麼，也不知道未來幾年會發生什麼。這是一個充滿活力的市場。我們正在做一些事情來對沖我們對此的賭注，為現貨市場留出足夠的交易量來投機取巧，在我們編寫合同的方式上也有一點靈活性。所以我不太確定。我知道有些公司在做多年期交易。我們對此表示反對，並表示我們將只簽訂 1 年的合同。我們將看看會發生什麼。

The question about long term, what this thing is going to look like, I'm not sure. I think we're going to have to navigate the market over the next 2 to 3 years to kind of see where things land. I would expect if they're closer to kind of normal then we would want a fairly large percentage of our trades to be under contract in a normal year. And that you're mitigating risk by having more freight under contract. And if rates aren't moving in a significant way up and down, it's just a better position to be in. But we're flexible and I'm not sure that the model that we were all used to for many, many, many years until the dynamic happened is going to work in the future.

關於長期的問題，這件事會是什麼樣子，我不確定。我認為我們將不得不在未來 2 到 3 年內駕馭市場，以了解事情的進展。我預計，如果它們更接近正常水平，那麼我們希望在正常年份有相當大比例的交易是根據合同進行的。並且您通過根據合同增加運費來降低風險。而且，如果利率沒有顯著上下波動，那隻是一個更好的位置。但是我們很靈活，我不確定我們都習慣了很多很多的模型在動態發生之前的幾年將在未來發揮作用。

Got it. And just a quick follow-up. In your big 4 pandemic quarters from Q2 '20 to Q1 '21, I think you recruited about 1.4 million Army members. Can you speak to the engagement of these specific members? Are they still engaged? Are their spending frequency trends better or worse or in line with the rest of the Army?

知道了。并快速跟進。在你從 20 年第二季度到 21 年第一季度的四大流行病季度中，我認為你招募了大約 140 萬陸軍成員。你能談談這些特定成員的參與嗎？他們還訂婚嗎？他們的消費頻率趨勢是好是壞，還是與陸軍其他部分一致？

We're seeing -- this is Eric again, Brian. We're seeing good engagement, good retention from those customers. So when I say good, I mean similar to previous year's engagement. So our retention is good. We're satisfied with it. In terms of the overall spend, it's pretty consistent compared to previous years, maybe slightly better compared to the non-Ollie's Army members versus previous years, but I would consider it to be pretty consistent. So we do like the behavior of those customers from what we've seen so far.

我們看到了——這又是埃里克，布賴恩。我們看到這些客戶的良好參與度和良好的保留率。所以當我說好時，我的意思是類似於前一年的訂婚。所以我們的留存率很好。我們對此感到滿意。就總體支出而言，與往年相比相當穩定，與非奧利軍成員相比，與往年相比可能略好一些，但我認為它非常穩定。因此，從我們目前所看到的情況來看，我們確實喜歡這些客戶的行為。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Carden from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Mark Carden。

So first, a quick follow-up on the store remodel program. There's obviously a lot of moving pieces right now with supply chain and macro backdrop. Just given all the noise, what jumps out to you that led you to decide that this is the right time to start the program?

所以首先，快速跟進商店改造計劃。在供應鍊和宏觀背景下，現在顯然有很多動人的事情。考慮到所有的噪音，是什麼讓您突然想到現在是啟動該程序的正確時間？

I think in visiting enough -- for my part in this, in visiting many stores, dozens of stores over the last 6 to 9 months, it seemed readily apparent that we have an opportunity to respace our stores and that opportunity seems significant enough that we should begin getting experience as quickly as possible. It doesn't create strain on the supply chain in any way, shape or form because we're moving product around in the store that's already in the store, supplementing certain categories that we expand and contracting other categories. So it's net no impact to the supply chain, ultimately, where the business has been most stressed. So we get super excited as we watch some of our older stores that we opened in the '80s and '90s and recognize that it really just don't reflect our most current thinking in how we want to present ourselves to the customer. So no time like the present to start to learn.

我認為在訪問足夠多的時候——就我而言，在過去的 6 到 9 個月裡訪問了許多商店，幾十家商店，很明顯我們有機會重新佈置我們的商店，而且這個機會似乎足夠重要，我們應該盡快開始獲得經驗。它不會以任何方式、形狀或形式對供應鏈造成壓力，因為我們正在商店中移動已經在商店中的產品，補充我們擴展的某些類別並收縮其他類別。因此，它對供應鏈沒有任何影響，最終，業務壓力最大的地方。因此，當我們看到我們在 80 年代和 90 年代開設的一些老店時，我們感到非常興奮，並認識到它實際上並沒有反映我們對如何向客戶展示自己的最新想法。所以沒有時間像現在這樣開始學習。

Fair enough. That makes sense, and that's helpful. And then just as a follow-up, how much of an impact did Omicron have on your supply chain?

很公平。這很有道理，而且很有幫助。然後作為後續行動，Omicron 對您的供應鏈有多大影響？

It was immaterial, but it felt painful in the moment. We give you a little bit of color. Our Pennsylvania distribution center actually was most significantly impacted, and the impact was for maybe 10 days, fairly significant in terms of our call-out rate. It felt like more than 10 days, but it was about 10 days in reality, and we're also in the middle of taking our inventories in all 3 buildings, which added a little bit more stress. But it was a relatively short period where we experienced some impact and we managed through it. It was also at the impact we felt at the beginning of January, beginning in the middle of January primarily, which is kind of absolute low point in the season, which helped as well. If Omicron had happened in November, I might have a different story for you, but -- so immaterial impact on the quarter.

這無關緊要，但在那一刻感覺很痛苦。我們給你一點顏色。我們的賓夕法尼亞州配送中心實際上受到的影響最為嚴重，影響可能持續 10 天，就我們的召回率而言相當顯著。感覺超過 10 天，但實際上大約是 10 天，而且我們還在對所有 3 棟建築進行清點，這增加了一點壓力。但那是一段相對較短的時期，我們經歷了一些影響，但我們設法渡過了難關。這也是我們在 1 月初感受到的影響，主要是從 1 月中旬開始，這是本賽季的絕對低點，這也有所幫助。如果 Omicron 發生在 11 月，我可能會給你一個不同的故事，但是 - 對本季度的影響如此微不足道。

Thank you. This does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to John Swygert for any further remarks.

謝謝。今天節目的問答環節到此結束。我想將該程序交還給 John Swygert 以徵求進一步意見。

Thank you, everyone, for participating in today's call and continued support. We look forward to updating you on our first quarter results in our next earnings call. Stay safe. Thank you.

感謝大家參與今天的電話會議和一如既往的支持。我們期待在下一次財報電話會議上向您更新我們第一季度的業績。注意安全。謝謝。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。這確實結束了程序。您現在可以斷開連接。再會。