Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to Ollie's Bargain Outlet conference call to discuss financial results for the first quarter fiscal 2022. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that reproduction of this call in whole or in part is not permitted without written authorization from Ollie's. As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

早上好。歡迎參加 Ollie's Bargain Outlet 電話會議，討論 2022 財年第一季度的財務業績。（操作員說明）請注意，未經 Ollie's 書面授權，不得全部或部分複制此電話會議。提醒一下，此通話正在錄音中。

On today's call from management, we have John Swygert, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jay Stasz, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Eric van der Valk, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer.

在今天管理層的電話會議上，我們有總裁兼首席執行官 John Swygert； Jay Stasz，高級副總裁兼首席財務官；執行副總裁兼首席運營官 Eric van der Valk。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today, Jean Fontana with ICR. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給今天的主持人，ICR 的 Jean Fontana。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Ollie's First Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Conference Call. A press release covering the company's financial results was issued this morning, and a copy of the press release can be found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎來到 Ollie 2022 財年第一季度收益電話會議。今天上午發布了一份涵蓋公司財務業績的新聞稿，新聞稿的副本可在公司網站的投資者關係部分找到。

I want to remind everyone that management's remarks on this call may contain forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, predictions, expectations or estimates, and actual results could differ materially from those mentioned on today's call. Any such items, including with respect to our future performance should be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements which speak only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise them for any new information or future events. Factors that might affect future results may not be in our control and are discussed in our SEC filings. We encourage you to review these filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q as well as our earnings release issued earlier today for a more detailed description of these factors.

我想提醒大家，管理層對本次電話會議的評論可能包含前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於預測、預期或估計，實際結果可能與今天電話會議中提到的結果存在重大差異。任何此類項目，包括關於我們未來業績的項目，都應被視為 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。您不應過分依賴這些僅在今天發表的前瞻性陳述，我們不承擔為任何新信息或未來事件更新或修改它們的義務。可能影響未來結果的因素可能不在我們的控制範圍內，並在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中進行了討論。我們鼓勵您查看這些文件，包括我們的 10-K 表格年度報告、10-Q 表格季度報告以及我們今天早些時候發布的收益報告，以更詳細地描述這些因素。

We will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures on the call that we believe may be important for investors to assess our operating performance. Reconciliation of the most closely comparable GAAP financial measures to the non-GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release.

我們將在電話會議上提及某些非 GAAP 財務指標，我們認為這些指標對於投資者評估我們的經營業績可能很重要。我們的收益發布中包含了最接近可比的 GAAP 財務措施與非 GAAP 財務措施的調節。

With that, I'll turn the call over to John.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, Jean, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining our call today. We are pleased with our first quarter sales results, given that we were up against strong stimulus-induced sales last year. During the quarter, sales of seasonal product were negatively impacted by cooler weather and consumers experienced pressure from significant inflation, particularly on gas and food.

謝謝，讓，大家好。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。我們對第一季度的銷售結果感到滿意，因為我們去年遇到了強勁的刺激措施引起的銷售。本季度，季節性產品的銷售受到涼爽天氣的負面影響，消費者承受著顯著通貨膨脹的壓力，尤其是在天然氣和食品方面。

We have seen meaningful improvement in our second quarter results with increased demand for warm weather seasonal products combined with our incredible deals and strong inventory position. Currently, our inventories are in terrific shape, and we continue to see compelling deals on great brands across our merchandise categories, especially those that are key to our business, including HBA, housewares, lawn and garden, air conditioning and pets.

隨著對溫暖天氣季節性產品的需求增加，加上我們令人難以置信的交易和強勁的庫存狀況，我們在第二季度的業績中看到了顯著的改善。目前，我們的庫存狀況非常好，我們繼續看到我們商品類別中的大品牌有吸引力的交易，尤其是那些對我們的業務至關重要的品牌，包括 HBA、家庭用品、草坪和花園、空調和寵物。

In addition, our DCs are running well, and goods are flowing into our stores on a timely basis. While we've not yet seen the full benefit of consumers trading down due to economic pressures, we are doubling down our efforts to offer great values as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressures.

此外，我們的配送中心運行良好，貨物及時流入我們的商店。雖然我們還沒有看到消費者因經濟壓力而減少交易的全部好處，但隨著消費者繼續感受到通脹壓力，我們正在加倍努力提供巨大的價值。

Looking back at the first quarter, our comparable store sales decreased 17.3% compared to 2021, slightly below our expectations. This was largely due to softer performance in weather-dependent categories, such as lawn and garden air commissioning pool and seasonal sports-related items. We saw strength in hardware, HBA as well as pets where we have been building our assortments. We are even more enthusiastic with the quality and quantity of great closeout opportunities we're currently being presented across -- presented with across many of our merchandise categories. These deals will enable us to deliver great brands and even better value to our customers.

回顧第一季度，我們的可比店面銷售額與 2021 年相比下降了 17.3%，略低於我們的預期。這主要是由於受天氣影響的類別表現疲軟，例如草坪和花園空氣調試池以及季節性運動相關項目。我們在硬件、HBA 以及我們一直在構建產品組合的寵物方面看到了優勢。我們對目前在我們的許多商品類別中展示的大量清倉機會的質量和數量更加熱情。這些交易將使我們能夠為我們的客戶提供偉大的品牌和更好的價值。

With the increasing inflationary pressure, we believe it is important for us to emphasize our extreme value proposition. We see an opportunity to generate excitement with even more aggressive pricing, so we are planning to reinvest some of our margin back into deals for our customers.

隨著通脹壓力的增加，我們認為強調我們的極端價值主張對我們來說很重要。我們看到了通過更激進的定價來激發興奮的機會，因此我們計劃將我們的部分利潤重新投資於為我們的客戶進行的交易。

Our store remodel program is well underway with 6 stores completed so far, and we are pleased with the initial results. We are delivering a more compelling shopping experience through relocated and respaced merchandise categories, improved sightlines and more exciting impulse merchandising. We remain on track to remodel approximately 30 stores by the end of this year.

我們的店鋪改造計劃進展順利，目前已完成 6 家店鋪，我們對初步結果感到滿意。我們通過重新定位和重新佈置商品類別、改善視線和更令人興奮的衝動營銷來提供更具吸引力的購物體驗。我們仍有望在今年年底前改造約 30 家門店。

Moving to real estate. During the first quarter, we opened 9 new stores and closed 1 in connection with the relocation, ending the quarter with 439 stores in 29 states. We are pleased with our new store productivity levels, which are in line with our year 1 store sales targets. We are still expecting to open between 46 and 48 new stores in 2022, including 2 relocations. However, we are seeing continued delays related to permitting and construction of our new stores. We remain confident that our model can support at least 1,050 stores nationwide.

轉向房地產。第一季度，我們新開了 9 家門店並關閉了 1 家與搬遷有關的門店，本季度末在 29 個州擁有 439 家門店。我們對新門店的生產力水平感到滿意，這符合我們第一年的門店銷售目標。我們仍預計 2022 年將開設 46 至 48 家新店，包括 2 家搬遷店。然而，我們看到與新店的許可和建設相關的持續延誤。我們仍然相信我們的模型可以支持全國至少 1,050 家商店。

Ollie's Army continued to grow, reaching over 12.9 million active members, growing 7.7% over the prior year and reaching 80% sales penetration in the quarter. As part of our efforts to expand our new customer acquisition strategies, in the first quarter, we began building out what we call our civilian database, enabling us to capture customer information for non-Ollie's Army shoppers based on credit card information. We plan to leverage this information to better target our shoppers and lookalikes via digital advertising as well as direct mail in the future.

Ollie's Army 繼續增長，擁有超過 1290 萬活躍會員，比上年增長 7.7%，本季度的銷售滲透率達到 80%。作為我們擴大新客戶獲取戰略的一部分，我們在第一季度開始構建我們所謂的民用數據庫，使我們能夠根據信用卡信息獲取非 Ollie's Army 購物者的客戶信息。我們計劃利用這些信息，在未來通過數字廣告和直郵更好地瞄准我們的購物者和相似人群。

During the quarter, we continued to leverage data analytics to create more targeted marketing by adding personalization to social media, which is generating improved engagement. In the second quarter, we will be testing other social media tools, including advertising on YouTube, TikTok, Yelp and Pinterest. We are also testing an influencer strategy to broaden our reach to potential new customers.

在本季度，我們繼續利用數據分析通過向社交媒體添加個性化來創建更有針對性的營銷，這正在提高參與度。在第二季度，我們將測試其他社交媒體工具，包括在 YouTube、TikTok、Yelp 和 Pinterest 上投放廣告。我們還在測試影響者策略，以擴大我們對潛在新客戶的影響力。

We are excited to share our 40th anniversary celebration with everyone. We have several special events planned kicking off with America's biggest cheapskate contest, which began on May 22 and will run through July 3. During Ollie's Days this year, we are planning to highlight 40 great deals for our 40 years in business milestone.

我們很高興與大家分享我們的 40 週年慶典。我們計劃舉辦幾場特別活動，從 5 月 22 日開始並將持續到 7 月 3 日的美國最大的小氣鬼比賽開始。在今年的 Ollie's Days 期間，我們計劃重點介紹 40 項偉大的交易，以紀念我們 40 年的商業里程碑。

Turning to operations. We are pleased with the significant progress we have made on our distribution center network and overall supply chain. The work we have done to build talent across the supply chain and drive the efficiencies is paying off. Distribution center throughput is meeting expectations, and import containers are being received on a timely basis to support the needs of our business. Eric van der Valk will continue to lead these efforts following the recent departure of our SVP of Supply Chain.

轉向運營。我們對我們在配送中心網絡和整個供應鏈方面取得的重大進展感到高興。我們為在整個供應鏈中培養人才和提高效率所做的工作正在取得成效。配送中心的吞吐量符合預期，並且及時收到進口集裝箱以支持我們的業務需求。在我們的供應鏈高級副總裁最近離職後，Eric van der Valk 將繼續領導這些工作。

In closing, we are encouraged by the sales trends we are seeing quarter to date and feel really good about our position heading into the summer season and the remainder of 2022. That said, we are operating in a highly uncertain and inflationary environment, and we remain focused on what we can control, offering great deals at exceptional value, which we believe will be coming -- which will become increasingly important as inflation continues to pressure consumers and they begin to trade down. Our long-term outlook for this business remains unchanged.

最後，我們對本季度迄今看到的銷售趨勢感到鼓舞，並對我們進入夏季和 2022 年剩餘時間的狀況感到非常滿意。也就是說，我們在高度不確定和通貨膨脹的環境中運營，我們繼續專注於我們可以控制的事情，以超值的價格提供大量交易，我們相信這將會到來——隨著通貨膨脹繼續給消費者帶來壓力並且他們開始進行低價交易，這將變得越來越重要。我們對該業務的長期前景保持不變。

Before turning the call over to Jay, I want to take a moment to discuss his departure, which will be -- which we announced in our earnings release this morning. I would like to personally thank him for his partnership, hard work and dedication to Ollie's over the past 6-plus years. He has been a key member of our management team and has helped Ollie's grow into the company it is today. We will miss him and wish him well in his new endeavor. We have begun a national search for a new CFO and look forward to updating you on our progress. In the meantime, I will take on the additional role of interim CFO, which is a position I held from 2004 until 2018.

在將電話轉給 Jay 之前，我想花點時間討論一下他的離職，我們將在今天早上的收益發布中宣布這一離職。我要親自感謝他在過去 6 年多的時間裡對 Ollie's 的伙伴關係、辛勤工作和奉獻精神。他一直是我們管理團隊的重要成員，並幫助 Ollie's 成長為今天的公司。我們會想念他，並祝愿他在新的事業中一切順利。我們已開始在全國范圍內尋找新的首席財務官，並期待向您通報我們的最新進展。與此同時，我將兼任臨時首席財務官一職，這是我從 2004 年到 2018 年擔任的職位。

I would like to thank our Ollie's team members who work hard every day to make all these great. Thank you. As we say, we are Ollie's.

我要感謝我們的 Ollie's 團隊成員，他們每天都在努力工作，讓這一切變得如此美好。謝謝。正如我們所說，我們是 Ollie's。

I will now hand the call over to Jay to take you through our financial results.

我現在將電話轉給 Jay，讓您了解我們的財務業績。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. For the quarter, net sales totaled $406.7 million, a 10.1% decrease from the prior year. Comparable store sales decreased 17.3% in the quarter compared with the prior year. As John mentioned, we are up against unprecedented stimulus last year while cooler weather impacted the sales of our seasonal product categories.

謝謝，約翰，大家早上好。本季度淨銷售額總計 4.067 億美元，較上年同期下降 10.1%。與去年同期相比，本季度可比店面銷售額下降了 17.3%。正如 John 所提到的，我們去年面臨前所未有的刺激，而涼爽的天氣影響了我們季節性產品類別的銷售。

In the quarter, we opened 9 new stores, ending the period with 439 stores in 29 states, a 10% year-over-year increase in store count. Since the end of the first quarter, we've opened 9 additional stores, including 3 that are having their grand opening this week. We plan to open 46 to 48 stores this fiscal year, including 2 relocations.

本季度，我們新開了 9 家門店，在 29 個州擁有 439 家門店，門店數量同比增長 10%。自第一季度末以來，我們又開設了 9 家門店，其中 3 家將於本周盛大開業。我們計劃在本財年開設 46 至 48 家門店，包括 2 家搬遷。

Gross profit decreased 22.6% to $141.3 million, and gross margin decreased 560 basis points to 34.8% compared to 40.4% in the same period a year ago. The decrease in gross margin was due to increased supply chain costs primarily the result of higher import and labor costs, partially offset by improvement in merchandise margin.

毛利潤下降 22.6% 至 1.413 億美元，毛利率下降 560 個基點至 34.8%，而去年同期為 40.4%。毛利率的下降是由於供應鏈成本增加，主要是由於進口和勞動力成本增加，部分被商品利潤率的提高所抵消。

SG&A expenses as a percentage of net sales increased to 28.6% in the first quarter of fiscal '22 from 23.1% in the first quarter of fiscal '21. The 550 basis point increase was primarily due to deleveraging as a result of lower sales.

SG&A 費用占淨銷售額的百分比從 21 財年第一季度的 23.1% 增加到 22 財年第一季度的 28.6%。 550 個基點的增長主要是由於銷售額下降導致的去槓桿化。

Operating income totaled $17.1 million compared to $71.2 million in the prior year. Operating margin decreased 1,150 basis points to 4.2% due to lower gross margin and deleveraging of SG&A expenses as a result of the decline in sales. Adjusted net income was $12.8 million, and adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.20. Adjusted EBITDA was $26.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin decreased 1,100 basis points to 6.5% for the quarter.

營業收入總計 1710 萬美元，上年同期為 7120 萬美元。營業利潤率下降 1,150 個基點至 4.2%，原因是銷售額下降導致毛利率下降和 SG&A 費用去槓桿化。調整後淨收入為 1280 萬美元，調整後攤薄每股收益為 0.20 美元。本季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 2620 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率下降 1,100 個基點至 6.5%。

Capital expenditures totaled $9.7 million, primarily for new and existing stores. This compares with $9.5 million in the prior year. Inventories increased 45.6% to $517 million in the first quarter compared with $355.2 million a year ago. Approximately 1/3 of the brains was attributable to increased supply chain costs and the remainder driven by the increased number of stores and the timing of merchandise receipts. In addition, inventories as of the end of the first quarter of fiscal '21 were lower due to heightened levels of sales productivity from increased consumer spending associated with stimulus.

資本支出總計 970 萬美元，主要用於新店和現有店面。相比之下，上一年為 950 萬美元。與一年前的 3.552 億美元相比，第一季度庫存增加了 45.6%，達到 5.17 億美元。大約 1/3 的大腦可歸因於供應鏈成本的增加，而其餘的大腦則歸因於商店數量的增加和商品收貨的時間。此外，由於與刺激相關的消費者支出增加導致銷售生產率水平提高，截至 21 財年第一季度末的庫存較低。

At the end of the period, we had no outstanding borrowings under our $100 million revolving credit facility and $205.5 million in cash. Subsequent to quarter end, we've invested $10 million to repurchase shares of our common stock.

在此期間結束時，我們的 1 億美元循環信貸額度和 2.055 億美元現金下沒有未償還的借款。季度末之後，我們投資了 1000 萬美元來回購我們的普通股。

Now I will discuss our outlook for fiscal '22. Our revised sales guidance reflects our first quarter results, a delay in the opening of some of our new stores to later in the year as well as a slightly more measured outlook for the second half. In addition, we are moderating our gross margin outlook to reflect a continued shift in merchandise mix and the potential to reinvest in price as we lean into great deals for our customers.

現在我將討論我們對 22 財年的展望。我們修改後的銷售指引反映了我們第一季度的業績、我們一些新店的開業時間推遲到今年晚些時候，以及對下半年的前景略有審慎。此外，我們正在調整我們的毛利率前景，以反映商品組合的持續轉變以及在我們為客戶提供大筆交易時對價格進行再投資的潛力。

For the full year, we now expect total net sales of $1.87 billion to $1.9 billion; comp store sales of negative 2 to flat; the opening of 46 to 48 new stores, including 2 relocations. We expect to open approximately 10 stores in the second quarter, 19 in the third quarter and between 8 and 10 stores in the fourth quarter.

對於全年，我們現在預計總淨銷售額為 18.7 億美元至 19 億美元； comp 商店銷售額負 2 至持平；開設 46 至 48 家新店，包括 2 家搬遷。我們預計第二季度將開設約 10 家門店，第三季度將開設 19 家，第四季度將開設 8 至 10 家門店。

Full year gross margin of approximately 36.5% to 36.7%. Operating income of between $155 million to $168 million. Adjusted net income of between $115 million to $125 million, and adjusted net income per diluted share of $1.83 to $1.98, both of which exclude excess tax benefits related to stock-based compensation. Depreciation and amortization expense in the range of $28 million to $29 million, including approximately $6 million that runs through cost of goods sold. An effective tax rate of 25.5%, which excludes the tax benefits related to stock-based compensation. And diluted weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 63 million. We expect capital expenditures of $53 million to $58 million related to new stores, store level initiatives, our York DC expansion and IT projects.

全年毛利率約為36.5%至36.7%。營業收入在 1.55 億美元至 1.68 億美元之間。調整後淨收入在 1.15 億美元至 1.25 億美元之間，調整後每股攤薄淨收入在 1.83 美元至 1.98 美元之間，兩者均不包括與股票薪酬相關的超額稅收優惠。折舊和攤銷費用在 2800 萬美元至 2900 萬美元之間，其中約 600 萬美元貫穿於已售商品的成本。有效稅率為 25.5%，不包括與股票薪酬相關的稅收優惠。攤薄後的加權平均流通股數約為 6300 萬股。我們預計與新店、店面計劃、約克 DC 擴張和 IT 項目相關的資本支出為 5300 萬至 5800 萬美元。

For the second quarter, we expect total sales of approximately $450 million to $460 million. This reflects a recovery of some of the sales and seasonal items in the second quarter. Comp store sales of between flat to up 3%. Gross margin of approximately 34.5%, consistent with our prior expectations. Operating income of $27 million to $30 million. And adjusted net income of between $20 million and $22 million, and adjusted net income per diluted share of $0.32 to $0.35, both of which exclude excess tax benefits related to stock-based compensation.

對於第二季度，我們預計總銷售額約為 4.5 億至 4.6 億美元。這反映了第二季度部分銷售和季節性商品的複蘇。比較商店銷售額持平至上漲 3%。毛利率約為 34.5%，符合我們之前的預期。營業收入為 2700 萬至 3000 萬美元。調整後淨收入在 2000 萬美元至 2200 萬美元之間，調整後每股攤薄淨收入在 0.32 美元至 0.35 美元之間，兩者均不包括與股票薪酬相關的超額稅收優惠。

In this highly inflationary environment, we believe that price becomes increasingly important. We remain focused on offering compelling values to our customers each and every day and believe we are well positioned to benefit as consumers' dollars continue to be stretched further and they trade down to Ollie's.

在這種高度通脹的環境中，我們認為價格變得越來越重要。我們仍然專注於每天為我們的客戶提供令人信服的價值，並且相信我們有能力從中受益，因為消費者的錢繼續吃緊，他們轉而購買 Ollie's。

In closing, I would like to thank John and Eric and the entire Ollie's team for their support. I'm proud of all that we've accomplished during my time here. I remain confident in the growth opportunities that lie ahead for this unique business model, and I'm leaving the company with a strong management team.

最後，我要感謝 John 和 Eric 以及整個 Ollie 團隊的支持。我為我在這裡期間所取得的成就感到自豪。我對這種獨特的商業模式未來的增長機會充滿信心，我將帶著一支強大的管理團隊離開公司。

I'll now turn the call back to the operator to start the Q&A session. Operator?

我現在將電話轉回接線員以開始問答環節。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And The first question comes from the line of Jason Haas with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jason Haas。

The first, John, I was curious if you could provide some more color on what you're seeing in regards to the closeout opportunities that are out there. What categories you're seeing with this opportunity? And if you can provide any color on what sort of sources, where they're coming from these days, that would be helpful.

首先，約翰，我很好奇你是否可以提供更多關於你所看到的關於現有收尾機會的顏色。您看到了哪些類別的機會？而且，如果您可以提供有關來源類型、這些天來自何處的任何顏色，那將很有幫助。

Yes, Jason, we -- I would never divulge who we're getting the product from. That's not what we do. But obviously, you've been in the stores a lot, and you know we source a lot of times. But with regards to the flow, it's getting pretty general in almost all of our categories. We're seeing an outsized flow right now in the HBA categories and the houseware categories, but we're starting to see some good pop in sporting goods that's starting to push pretty good. We're seeing some good flow on the food category. We're starting to see some bed and bath for the domestic area. Lawn and garden has been in some special categories this year so far. So we're starting to see some breakthrough in the toys. So we're starting to see it everywhere. And I think that's not a surprise to anybody probably on the call that things are changing in the marketplace, and we're starting to see some pretty large opportunities for us and our customers.

是的，傑森，我們——我永遠不會透露我們從誰那裡得到產品。那不是我們所做的。但很明顯，你經常光顧商店，而且你知道我們採購了很多次。但就流程而言，它在我們幾乎所有類別中都變得非常普遍。我們現在在 HBA 類別和家庭用品類別中看到了巨大的流量，但我們開始看到體育用品中的一些流行趨勢開始推動相當不錯。我們在食品類別上看到了一些良好的流量。我們開始在國內看到一些床和浴室。到目前為止，草坪和花園在今年屬於一些特殊類別。所以我們開始看到玩具方面的一些突破。所以我們開始到處看到它。而且我認為這對任何人來說都不足為奇，因為市場正在發生變化，我們開始為我們和我們的客戶看到一些相當大的機會。

That's great to hear. And then as a follow-up question, I know you had mentioned trade-down. I think you said you're not seeing the full benefit yet. So I'm curious, are you starting to see any evidence that customers are starting to trade down into your channel? Or are you not seeing it yet and there should be a full benefit to come?

聽到這個消息我很高興。然後作為後續問題，我知道你提到過折價。我想你說過你還沒有看到全部好處。所以我很好奇，您是否開始看到客戶開始購買您的渠道的任何證據？或者你還沒有看到它，應該會有一個完整的好處？

I think, Jason, it's hard to tell with that perspective, but I do think we're seeing a little bit, but I don't think -- we're not seeing what we would expect to see yet. I think there's still more to come. I think there's probably another, and sometimes we're ahead of it too far. But probably another 3 months to 6 months before we see the full benefit come through.

我認為，Jason，從這個角度很難說，但我確實認為我們看到了一點，但我不認為——我們還沒有看到我們期望看到的東西。我認為還有更多的事情要做。我認為可能還有另一個，有時我們超前了太多。但可能還需要 3 個月到 6 個月才能看到全部收益。

That's great to hear. And I just wanted to say, Jay, it's been a pleasure to work with you, and I wanted to wish you the best of luck in your next opportunity.

聽到這個消息我很高興。我只是想說，傑伊，很高興與你一起工作，我想祝你在下一次機會中好運。

Thank you, Jason. Appreciate it. Same to you.

謝謝你，傑森。欣賞它。你也一樣。

And our next question comes from the line of Peter Keith with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Peter Keith 和 Piper Sandler 的台詞。

So John, I guess it sounds like the closeouts are getting better, maybe 3 to 6 months to get trade-down, but at the same time, it sounds like you guys are taking a more cautious view in the back half of the year. Could you just kind of frame up what you're seeing right now that results in that lower second half comp outlook?

所以約翰，我想听起來收尾情況越來越好，可能需要 3 到 6 個月才能進行交易，但與此同時，聽起來你們在今年下半年採取了更加謹慎的態度。你能不能把你現在看到的導致下半年較低的前景的框架構建起來？

Yes, I think, Peter, it's just something we want to be conservative in how we manage the business. We don't want to get ahead of ourselves. We'd rather chase it than be too far ahead of our skis and then have an issue with the inventory that we would not be able to get rid of. So we're just taking it easy, and we're going to push when the time comes to push and push hard. So the opportunities are out there to be had. And our merchants will be patient, and we'll be able to close on the deals when it's time.

是的，我認為，彼得，這只是我們希望在我們管理業務的方式上保持保守。我們不想超越自己。我們寧願追逐它，也不願遠遠領先於我們的滑雪板，然後遇到我們無法擺脫的庫存問題。所以我們只是放輕鬆，當需要推動和努力推動時，我們將推動。所以機會就在那裡。我們的商家會耐心等待，我們將能夠在適當的時候完成交易。

Okay. And as you're probably seeing out there, there's quite a bit of promotion and markdown activity across retail as a lot of retailers are over-inventoried. Obviously, that's going to create closeouts for you. But what's the competitive landscape right now and for you just competing against this highly promotional environment?

好的。正如您可能在那裡看到的那樣，由於許多零售商庫存過多，整個零售業都有相當多的促銷和降價活動。顯然，這將為您創造出局。但是現在的競爭格局是什麼，對你來說只是在這個高度促銷的環境中競爭？

Yes, Peter, we watch it each and every day, and our merchants have been looking at what the big box retailers have been doing with some of their price reductions to try to move some of their inventory out. And everything we look at, thus far, it's either a noncompetitive issue that we don't have the same product that they're moving through or we still have a nice value proposition compared to what the reduced prices anyway. So we're not finding any problems with our current pricing. But as we always say, we will be a low price leader. If there's someone who has the same item that we do and they're beating us on price, we will take the markdown accordingly, but we're not seeing that yet.

是的，彼得，我們每天都在看，我們的商家一直在關注大型零售商通過降價來嘗試轉移部分庫存的做法。到目前為止，我們所看到的一切，要么是一個非競爭性問題，即我們沒有他們正在銷售的相同產品，要么與無論如何降價相比，我們仍然有一個不錯的價值主張。因此，我們目前的定價沒有發現任何問題。但正如我們常說的，我們將成為低價領導者。如果有人擁有與我們相同的商品並且他們在價格上擊敗了我們，我們將相應地降價，但我們還沒有看到。

Okay. Sounds good. And Jay, I wish you nothing but the best.

好的。聽起來不錯。傑伊，祝你一切順利。

Thanks, Peter. Appreciate it.

謝謝，彼得。欣賞它。

And our next question comes from the line of Mark Carden with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的馬克卡登。

To start, another one on consumer behavior. Are you guys seeing any notable traffic or ticket shifts between your Ollie's Army and non-Ollie's Army shoppers?

首先，另一個關於消費者行為的問題。你們看到 Ollie's Army 和非 Ollie's Army 購物者之間有任何顯著的交通或票務轉移嗎？

With regards to the ticket or the basket, we've always have seen a notable difference between the Ollie's Army shopper and the non-Ollie's Army shopper. I think the spend is about 40% greater for the Ollie's Army shopper versus the non-Ollie's Army shopper, and that's been consistent. What we -- in terms of number of visits and transactions for the non-Ollie's Army shopper, we don't know that. We don't know who they are. So we couldn't answer that. But we know the spend for the Ollie's Army shopper is much, much stronger.

關於門票或籃子，我們一直看到 Ollie's Army 購物者和非 Ollie's Army 購物者之間存在顯著差異。我認為 Ollie's Army 購物者的支出比非 Ollie's Army 購物者高出約 40%，而且這種情況一直存在。我們——就非 Ollie's Army 購物者的訪問次數和交易次數而言，我們不知道。我們不知道他們是誰。所以我們無法回答。但我們知道 Ollie's Army 購物者的消費要強勁得多。

Great. And then just in terms of the supply chain, what would you guys say the biggest unanticipated pain points are today? And how do they compare with what you're anticipating at this point last quarter?

偉大的。然後就供應鏈而言，你們認為今天最大的意外痛點是什麼？他們與上個季度此時您的預期相比如何？

This is Eric, Mark. I'll answer. I don't think we have an unanticipated pain point at this point in time. We do have challenges that we continue to face, but our throughput is where we needed to be to serve the business in all 3 distribution centers, and we have the import transportation -- international transportation capacity to ensure goods flow and that we can properly support our business, especially our seasonal businesses -- business, which was problematic last year. Our last kind of remaining challenge of any consequence is getting our Texas building to be more efficient throughputs where we need it to be with efficiencies and opportunity.

這是埃里克，馬克。我會回答。我不認為我們在這個時間點有意想不到的痛點。我們確實面臨著繼續面臨的挑戰，但我們的吞吐量是我們需要為所有 3 個配送中心的業務提供服務的地方，我們有進口運輸——國際運輸能力來確保貨物流動，我們可以提供適當的支持我們的業務，尤其是我們的季節性業務——業務，去年出現了問題。我們剩下的最後一個挑戰是讓我們的德克薩斯州大樓在我們需要的地方以效率和機會的方式提高吞吐量。

Great. That's helpful. Best of luck, Jay.

偉大的。這很有幫助。祝你好運，傑伊。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And our next question comes from the line of Edward Kelly with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的愛德華凱利。

I wanted to ask you about inventory. So there has been some talk this morning about inventory up a lot year-over-year. But inventory per store versus 2019 is only up about maybe 16% or so, and you're guiding comps up probably mid-singles from there. How are you thinking about your inventory level overall? How much of the increase here is just sort of amortized supply chain costs? How are you feeling about like unit volumes of inventory? And does this impact your ability to go after the closeout opportunity that's ahead?

我想問你關於庫存的問題。所以今天早上有一些關於庫存同比增加很多的討論。但與 2019 年相比，每家商店的庫存僅增長了 16% 左右，而且你可能從那裡引導了中單。您如何看待整體庫存水平？這裡增加的多少只是某種攤銷的供應鏈成本？您如何看待單位數量的庫存？這是否會影響您追趕即將到來的收尾機會的能力？

Ed, this is Jay, and I'll start on this. We feel good about our inventory levels. To your point, a large chunk of that increase is the increased supply chain costs. And when we look at '19, we think we're in a good shape from an inventory level standpoint. Obviously, we had a little bit of a shift in sales from Q1 to Q2. We expect the sales going forward in, Q2, Q3, Q4 to be strong. And we would expect the inventory levels overall to kind of normalize as really closer to the end of Q4 and kind of sequentially step down between then and now. But we feel fine where we're at.

埃德，這是傑伊，我會開始的。我們對我們的庫存水平感覺良好。就您而言，增加的很大一部分是供應鏈成本的增加。當我們看 19 年時，我們認為從庫存水平的角度來看我們處於良好狀態。顯然，我們的銷售額從第一季度到第二季度略有變化。我們預計第二季度、第三季度、第四季度的銷售將會強勁。我們預計整體庫存水平會在真正接近第四季度末時正常化，並在那時和現在之間逐步下降。但我們感覺很好。

And Ed, I'll add a little color on that. With regards to the -- and obviously, it's hard for you guys to see from the financial statements what the in-store inventory is versus what's in the DC and what the capitalized costs are. Compared to '19, we are almost right about in line on an inventory per store in the actual comp stores look in '19 to '22, not adjusting for inflation. So I don't think we are sitting heavy at all in the stores when you adjust for the price changes that have occurred with the inflationary pressure we've seen. And I think there's still opportunity for us, but I think we'll get -- well, you won't see such a large disparity to 2021 as we move through the year, as Jay had mentioned.

Ed，我會在上面添加一點顏色。關於 - 顯然，你們很難從財務報表中看出店內庫存與 DC 中的庫存以及資本化成本是多少。與 19 年相比，我們在 19 年到 22 年的實際比較商店中每家商店的庫存幾乎是正確的，而不是針對通貨膨脹進行調整。因此，當您根據我們所看到的通貨膨脹壓力所發生的價格變化進行調整時，我認為我們在商店裡的負擔並不重。而且我認為我們仍然有機會，但我認為我們會 - 好吧，正如 Jay 提到的那樣，隨著我們今年的發展，你不會看到與 2021 年的差距如此之大。

Okay. And then just a follow-up, and this is for you, I think, John, but I'm interested in sort of open to buy and how you're thinking about positioning yourself for the opportunity that's ahead right? I mean we're hearing large retailers now canceling orders. Clearly, it seems like there's going to be some very big opportunity from a deal flow perspective. But how do you think about running the business from an open-to-buy standpoint? There's obviously like an art component of that. How do you feel about taking risk where it's appropriate leaning into the opportunity? And do you have the capacity to do all of that?

好的。然後只是一個跟進，這是給你的，我想，約翰，但我對某種開放購買感興趣，以及你如何考慮為未來的機會定位自己，對嗎？我的意思是我們聽說大型零售商現在正在取消訂單。顯然，從交易流的角度來看，似乎會有一些非常大的機會。但是，您如何看待從開放購買的角度來經營業務？顯然其中有藝術成分。您如何看待在適合抓住機會的地方冒險？你有能力做到這一切嗎？

Yes. I think, Ed, the big thing is that we go back to is the concept of dry powder, and that's our merchants being very patient and confident that the deals are going to come and make sure they wait for the absolute A++ plus deals. And we are severely focused on that today, and every merchant has been spoken to, and they are fully aware of how this is going to work in the back half of the year. So we basically are keeping dry powder, keeping nimble and being very selective on what we're going to buy and being aggressive on our offers because the main key from our perspective is we have to give the consumer a great value. And that also assists, and the trade-down effect is if I give someone a compelling value, they can't resist. They're going to come to the store to save money. So that's where we're at in our piece of the puzzle.

是的。我認為，埃德，最重要的是我們回到了乾粉的概念，那就是我們的商家非常耐心和自信，交易將會到來，並確保他們等待絕對的 A++ 加交易。我們今天非常關注這一點，我們已經與每一位商家進行了交談，他們完全清楚這將在今年下半年如何運作。所以我們基本上保持乾粉，保持靈活，對我們要購買的東西非常有選擇性，並在我們的報價上積極進取，因為從我們的角度來看，主要關鍵是我們必須為消費者提供巨大的價值。這也有幫助，如果我給某人一個令人信服的價值，他們就無法抗拒。他們會來商店存錢。這就是我們在拼圖中所處的位置。

But to your point, the open to buy is very fluid at Ollie's and always has been. There's a lot of art more than science here the way we operate the business. But we do have our parameters. We do have the ability to collapse on deals that we believe are home runs and have the ability to hold them in the DCs, and we are nimble. So we will not pass on the deal if it's what I call gold, and we are working accordingly. So the merchants are pushing hard on their open to buy, but we're not going to get over our skis. And as you know, Ed, following us for many years, we are not fast fashion. We're end of life in the cycle for a lot of items. So there's not a lot of risk with what we're buying. We're buying general merchandise, hard goods that are not fashion-driven, and we're already buying last year's model. So that plays into how we operate.

但就您的觀點而言，Ollie's 的開放購買非常靈活，而且一直如此。在我們經營業務的方式中，藝術多於科學。但我們確實有我們的參數。我們確實有能力在我們認為是本壘打的交易上崩潰，並且有能力將它們保留在 DC 中，而且我們很靈活。因此，如果它是我所說的黃金，我們將不會通過交易，我們正在相應地開展工作。因此，商家們正在大力推動他們的開放購買，但我們不會忘記我們的滑雪板。正如你所知，埃德，跟隨我們多年，我們不是快時尚。我們在很多項目的周期中結束了生命。所以我們購買的東西沒有太大的風險。我們正在購買非時尚驅動的一般商品和硬貨，而且我們已經在購買去年的款式。所以這會影響我們的運作方式。

Great. And good luck, Jay.

偉大的。祝你好運，傑伊。

Thanks, Ed.

謝謝，埃德。

And our next question comes from the line of Kate McShane with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自 Kate McShane 與 Goldman Sachs 的對話。

I guess just to round out the last question, we just wondered if closeouts are still going to represent about 70% of sales for the year. Or could it maybe be more given the circumstances going into the back half?

我想只是為了完善最後一個問題，我們只是想知道清倉是否仍將佔今年銷售額的 70% 左右。或者考慮到進入後半場的情況，它可能會更多嗎？

Well, Kate, I would always answer this question with Mark in the past. We'd love closeouts to be 100%, but we know that's not possible. His history would tell you, Kate, it's about 70%. If we got to 75%, that would be a big, big move, but we are pushing very hard. We are definitely favoring domestically sourced product versus import. So the buyers are working diligently on that. So the more closeouts we can find domestically, that would be great. But there are going to be closeouts, what we call stock lots in Asia as well from a lot of the cancelers that won't even make it here yet from the other retailers that have canceled them out. Those will become closeouts as well. So wherever the closeout is located, we're going to go after and go after it hard. So we've always run the business that closeouts are first and then everyday value goods are second. So we will mix that in accordingly.

好吧，凱特，過去我總是和馬克一起回答這個問題。我們希望收尾率達到 100%，但我們知道這是不可能的。他的歷史會告訴你，凱特，大約是 70%。如果我們達到 75%，那將是一個非常非常大的舉措，但我們正在努力推動。我們絕對更喜歡國產產品而不是進口產品。因此，買家正在為此努力工作。因此，我們可以在國內找到更多的清倉，那就太好了。但是將會有清倉，我們在亞洲稱之為庫存，還有許多取消者甚至不會從其他零售商那裡取消它們。那些也將成為清倉。因此，無論收尾地點位於何處，我們都會全力追趕。因此，我們一直經營的業務是首先清倉，然後才是日常有價值的商品。所以我們將相應地混合它。

Okay. And then our second question was just about how traffic trended through the quarter. Are you able to walk us through the cadence by month and how that may be improved in May.

好的。然後我們的第二個問題就是本季度的流量趨勢如何。您能否按月向我們介紹節奏，以及如何在 5 月改進節奏。

Yes, Kate, this is Jay. And we don't get into inter-quarter trends. But I can say our comp was a negative 17.3 in the first quarter, obviously going up against the stimulus. About 90% of that was driven by a decrease in transactions. The rest was a slight decrease to 10% in average basket, and that was really driven by AUR with some of that is driven by the shift of those higher ticket items, seasonal items out of Q1.

是的，凱特，這是傑伊。而且我們沒有進入季度間趨勢。但我可以說我們的收入在第一季度為負 17.3，顯然與刺激計劃背道而馳。其中約 90% 是由於交易減少所致。其餘部分略微下降至平均籃子的 10%，這實際上是由 AUR 推動的，其中一些是由於那些高價項目、季節性項目從第一季度開始的轉移。

And then the trends so far, and we're not going to get specific, but they have improved materially really across all fronts. So we're seeing, as the weather has cooperated, the trends on both transaction and average basket are getting stronger, and we're comfortable with our guidance for the first quarter -- I'm sorry, the second quarter of flat to a positive 3.

然後是到目前為止的趨勢，我們不打算具體說明，但它們在各個方面都取得了實質性的改善。所以我們看到，隨著天氣的配合，交易和平均籃子的趨勢都變得更強，我們對第一季度的指導感到滿意——對不起，第二季度持平到積極 3。

Okay. And best wishes, Jay.

好的。祝你好運，傑伊。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And our next question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自 Simeon Gutman 與摩根士丹利的對話。

It's Simeon Gutman. You mentioned we're not seeing the trade-down yet. Can you give us a clearer picture of what the buildup looks like, whether it's traffic ticket items in the basket? What does the buildup mean? And why are you signaling that we're getting to that point?

我是西蒙·古特曼。你提到我們還沒有看到交易下降。您能否更清楚地告訴我們堆積的情況，是否是籃子中的交通罰單物品？積累是什麼意思？你為什麼暗示我們已經到了那個地步？

Simeon, obviously, this is part of the art of the business. It's not the science here to be able to know exactly what's happening. The reality is we will all know when the trade-down effect has really gotten to full force because our comps will start driving on an outsized basis as they have historically. So I view that to come here in the next several months. But with regards to actually knowing where it's coming from and how it's too early for me to tell you that, I think I forecast this probably before anybody else did last year that something was coming, and we are seeing pressures that we're in now. Everyone's starting to see it now. We just saw it earlier, and I think we'll see the benefits earlier as well. So I think we're moving towards that.

Simeon，顯然，這是商業藝術的一部分。能夠確切地知道正在發生什麼並不是這裡的科學。現實情況是，我們都知道折價效應何時真正發揮作用，因為我們的公司將開始像歷史上那樣以超大規模推動。所以我認為在接下來的幾個月裡會來到這裡。但是關於真正知道它來自哪里以及我現在告訴你還為時過早，我想我可能比去年其他任何人都預測到這會發生一些事情，我們看到了我們現在所處的壓力.現在每個人都開始看到它了。我們剛剛看到它，我想我們也會更早地看到它的好處。所以我認為我們正在朝著那個方向前進。

And it's just strictly math. Consumers only have so much disposable income in every single week to put more gas in the car. And they go to the grocery store, they have less disposable income and they start to feel the pressure regards of who you are. So that I believe is coming and most importantly, where the compelling deals and the opportunities for us to give them a price they can't resist, I think, is right around the corner.

這只是嚴格的數學。消費者每週只有這麼多的可支配收入來給汽車加更多的油。他們去雜貨店，可支配收入減少，他們開始感受到關於你是誰的壓力。所以我相信即將到來，最重要的是，我認為引人注目的交易和我們給他們一個他們無法抗拒的價格的機會就在眼前。

Okay. Fair enough. A follow-up and maybe 2 parts. First, back to inventory. The dollars are up a lot, Ed mentioned, not as much on a per store basis. Can you talk about why this -- that means you're going to have higher costs and you're probably going to raise price. And I guess, going back to the inventory question, why isn't there risk or for elevated markdown risk for the rest of the year?

好的。很公平。跟進，可能分為 2 個部分。首先，回到庫存。 Ed 提到，美元上漲了很多，但不是每家商店上漲那麼多。你能談談為什麼這 - 這意味著你將有更高的成本並且你可能會提高價格。我想，回到庫存問題，為什麼今年餘下時間沒有風險或降價風險升高？

And the second part of the question is the acceleration in the stacks on a 3-year basis, which adjusts out for stimulus is pretty significant going from Q1 to Q2. So what is driving that sequentially?

問題的第二部分是堆棧在 3 年的基礎上加速，從第一季度到第二季度，針對刺激措施進行調整後的影響非常顯著。那麼，是什麼推動了這一進程？

That was a lot more than 2 questions, Simeon. That was a mouth -- that was a boatload.

Simeon，這不僅僅是 2 個問題。那是一張嘴——那是一船載物。

Simeon, I can address a couple of those things. I mean I think on the cost piece, right, we've talked about those increased supply chain and import costs. Those are -- even during Q1, the cost came in line. We had a little headwind on margin just because they delevered because of the sales drop. But look, going forward, and we've given guidance on the margin, those costs are baked in to our gross margin estimates. So we think we're in good shape there. To your point, on a markdown risk, I mean, we feel good with our inventory. I mean, I review the 18 in detail every quarter. We don't have any age problem.

Simeon，我可以解決其中的一些問題。我的意思是我認為在成本方面，對，我們已經討論了那些增加的供應鍊和進口成本。這些是 - 即使在第一季度，成本也符合要求。我們在利潤率上遇到了一些不利因素，只是因為他們因銷售額下降而去槓桿化。但是，展望未來，我們已經就利潤率給出了指導，這些成本已計入我們的毛利率估算中。所以我們認為我們在那里處於良好狀態。就你的觀點而言，我的意思是，在降價風險方面，我們對庫存感覺良好。我的意思是，我每個季度都會詳細審查這 18 個。我們沒有任何年齡問題。

And look, at the environment, we don't know what's going to happen with the promotional environment in the next coming months, but we have our standard cadence of promotions with Ollie's Days and other clearance events. So we don't expect there to be significant markdown risk going forward.

看看環境，我們不知道接下來幾個月的促銷環境會發生什麼，但我們有標準的促銷節奏，包括 Ollie's Days 和其他清倉活動。因此，我們預計未來不會出現重大降價風險。

And then as far as the comps, to your point -- and again, we're kind of -- the way we look at it is a 3-year geometric stack basis. I mean, we're starting to anniversary that a little bit and talk about comps in a normal way with a 0% to 3% for Q2. And then higher than that, like we've talked about on the last call for the back half in Q3 and Q4, mid-single digits. And we had an inherent acceleration built in when we gave the guidance last time. And now this time, we do forecast a slight incremental uptick in Q2 because of the shift of the seasonal sales out of Q1 into Q2. And then we've actually tempered our back half forecast by about a point.

然後就 comps 而言，就你的觀點而言——再一次，我們有點——我們看待它的方式是 3 年的幾何堆棧基礎。我的意思是，我們開始慶祝週年紀念日，並以正常方式談論 comps，Q2 的比例為 0% 到 3%。然後更高，就像我們在第三季度和第四季度的後半部分的最後一次電話會議上談到的那樣，中個位數。當我們上次給出指導時，我們有一個內在的加速。現在這一次，由於季節性銷售從第一季度轉移到第二季度，我們確實預測第二季度會略有上升。然後我們實際上將我們的後半部分預測調低了大約一個點。

But generally speaking, I would say we have the seasonal shift into Q2. We have a better overall inventory position as we go through Q2 and Q3 and even Q4 for that matter. And if you recall last year, we did have some timing delays of shipment of key categories, seasonal categories, both late in Q3 and in Q4. So that's -- we just think that and coupled with the deal flow. And what we're seeing, we think we're very well positioned to drive these sales, and we don't think it's overly aggressive for the remainder of the year.

但總的來說，我會說我們將季節性轉移到第二季度。在我們經歷第二季度和第三季度甚至第四季度時，我們的整體庫存狀況更好。如果你還記得去年，我們在第三季度末和第四季度確實有一些關鍵類別、季節性類別的發貨時間延遲。這就是 - 我們只是認為這一點並與交易流程相結合。我們所看到的是，我們認為我們在推動這些銷售方面處於非常有利的地位，而且我們認為在今年餘下的時間裡它不會過於激進。

Good luck, Jay.

祝你好運，傑伊。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And our next question comes from the line of Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Matthew Boss。

So John, maybe at the category level, could you just elaborate a little on top line performance in May? Where have you seen the sequential improvement exactly? And then just how are you thinking about June and July comps relative to May in that second quarter outlook?

那麼約翰，也許在類別層面，你能否詳細說明 5 月份的頂級表現？您究竟在哪裡看到了順序改進？那麼在第二季度展望中，您如何看待 6 月和 7 月相對於 5 月的比較？

And then maybe just on Simeon's question, if we're thinking about your core customer, they're clearly under increased pressure relative to pre-pandemic. Your stores are a destination, given the higher gas prices. I guess what's giving you this confidence in the back half for mid-single-digit comps or a full return to algorithm?

然後也許就 Simeon 的問題而言，如果我們考慮的是您的核心客戶，那麼與大流行前相比，他們顯然承受著更大的壓力。考慮到更高的汽油價格，您的商店是一個目的地。我想是什麼讓你對中個位數組合或完全回歸算法的後半部分充滿信心？

I think, Matt, the biggest part is the trade-down effect. That's definitely going to play into our hand, the core customer. Yes, our core customer is not on a fixed income side. That's a misnomer where our average household income is about $55,000. So it's not somebody who's at a poverty level or that's strapped that they can't do anything.

我認為，馬特，最大的部分是折價效應。這肯定會對我們的核心客戶有利。是的，我們的核心客戶不在固定收益方面。這是用詞不當，我們的平均家庭收入約為 55,000 美元。因此，這不是處於貧困水平的人，也不是束手無策的人。

So there's a portion of them, without a doubt, that I think all of us have in the portfolio, but we have a wide range of customers that we deal with. But there's a big piece that are out there that -- and we've seen it. Historically, when people get strapped, the trade-down effect comes to us. And a lot of it is based on the deal flow we're able to get. And the ability to motivate the consumer to come in the building, we believe that on its way. I think everyone is aware that the retailers are having some struggles right now. And when retailers struggle, that is the ability for us to see some great product and give a great value to the consumer. So that piece, I feel pretty good with. I don't know the timing. But we'll know the time when it happens, and we'll see the results, and we'll be able to deliver. So that piece, I'm comfortable with. What was your other question, Matt?

因此，毫無疑問，其中一部分，我認為我們所有人都在投資組合中，但我們有廣泛的客戶與我們打交道。但是那裡有一大塊——我們已經看到了。從歷史上看，當人們手頭拮据時，就會出現折價效應。其中很多是基於我們能夠獲得的交易流程。以及激勵消費者進入大樓的能力，我們相信它正在路上。我想每個人都知道零售商現在正在掙扎。當零售商苦苦掙扎時，我們就有能力看到一些很棒的產品並為消費者提供巨大的價值。所以那一塊，我覺得還不錯用。我不知道時機。但我們會知道它發生的時間，我們會看到結果，我們將能夠交付。所以那件作品，我很舒服。你的另一個問題是什麼，馬特？

Well, Matt, on the cadence of the comps in the quarter, it's pretty consistent by month, not a whole lot of difference between those 3.

好吧，馬特，就本季度的節奏而言，按月來看非常一致，這 3 個之間沒有太大差異。

Okay. Great. And then Jay, just on the gross margin as a follow-up. So if we think about the first quarter, what accounted for -- I think it was about 100 basis points missed versus forecast. And then could you just walk through distribution versus merch margin as we're thinking about the second quarter? And what now are you embedding for the year on the distribution headwind?

好的。偉大的。然後傑伊，就毛利率作為後續行動。因此，如果我們考慮第一季度，我認為它比預期少了大約 100 個基點。然後，在我們考慮第二季度時，您能否簡單介紹一下分銷與商品利潤率？現在你在分銷逆風中嵌入了什麼？

Yes. So Matt, to your point, we were about 100 basis points off forecast. About 60% of that was driven on the merch margin side. So we did have a 130 basis point improvement in our merch margin year-over-year, but we had forecasted even more. And then on the supply chain side, we had a headwind, but that was really, as I said, attributable primarily to just deleveraging those costs on the sales. We didn't have a miss from a dollar standpoint, and we're right in line.

是的。所以馬特，就你的觀點而言，我們比預測低了大約 100 個基點。其中約 60% 是由商品利潤率驅動的。因此，我們的商品利潤率確實比去年同期提高了 130 個基點，但我們預測的更多。然後在供應鏈方面，我們遇到了不利因素，但正如我所說，這實際上主要歸因於只是將這些銷售成本去槓桿化。從美元的角度來看，我們沒有錯過任何機會，而且我們是對的。

So looking forward, we haven't really changed our forecast on the supply chain side of things. I mean, obviously, it's going to be elevated year-over-year just like it has been. And the way we think about it is that in the first quarter, year-over-year, it was about a net 560 basis point degradation in margin. We would expect that in Q2. We've given you that guide. But year-over-year, it probably gets better by about 90 to 100 basis points. Q3 then becomes about half of that from a year-over-year headwind.

所以展望未來，我們並沒有真正改變我們對供應鏈方面的預測。我的意思是，很明顯，它會像過去一樣逐年上升。我們的想法是，在第一季度，與去年同期相比，利潤率淨下降了 560 個基點。我們預計在第二季度。我們已經為您提供了該指南。但與去年同期相比，它可能會好轉約 90 到 100 個基點。然後，由於同比逆風，第三季度變成了大約一半。

And then, finally, as we talked about, in Q4, we get back to much more normal. We're expecting to be above 39, maybe a little haircut from where we were on the last call but not significantly different. And really, Q4 is when we expect to kind of normalize across the board and get closer to the long-term algorithm.

然後，最後，正如我們所說，在第四季度，我們恢復到更加正常的狀態。我們預計會超過 39，可能與我們上次通話時的位置略有不同，但差別不大。實際上，第四季度是我們期望全面標準化並更接近長期算法的時候。

Matt, just to add a comment, it's Eric. The supply chain expense improvement is primarily driven by better container costs for imports moving forward under our new contracts.

馬特，我是埃里克，我想補充一點。供應鏈費用的改善主要是由於根據我們的新合同，進口貨物的集裝箱成本有所提高。

Great. Best of luck.

偉大的。祝你好運。

Thanks, Matt.

謝謝，馬特。

And our next question comes from the line of Paul Lejuez with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Paul Lejuez。

Just on inventory. Are there any categories that you have large increases above and beyond what you'd like right now? I'm curious also if you have any -- what you feel like the availability is not as good as you would hope?

就在庫存上。是否有任何類別的增長幅度超出您現在的預期？我也很好奇你是否有任何 - 你覺得可用性不如你希望的那樣好？

And then second, just to understand on the SG&A line, if results were to come in any different than planned, how much flexibility do you feel that you have on the SG&A line, given some of the inflationary pressures out there?

其次，只是為了了解 SG&A 方面的情況，如果結果與計劃有任何不同，考慮到那裡的一些通貨膨脹壓力，你覺得你在 SG&A 方面有多少靈活性？

Yes, Paul, with regards to the inventory, I would tell you we don't have any pockets of over-inventory position that we're concerned with as a company right now. There's no areas we think there's risk today. With regards to areas that we'd like to see more flow, I'd say the one and only area that today still exists, it's getting a little bit better but it's not where we'd like to see it. We'll probably be in the packaged food category. There's still not a lot of breakthrough there yet. And I'm not sure how much it will come, but we've seen a little bit of improvement in the last several weeks. But we're still getting our fair share, but we'd like to get more of it. But other than that, we're seeing great flow, and we don't think there's any risk with what we're carrying right now.

是的，保羅，關於庫存，我會告訴你，作為一家公司，我們現在沒有任何擔心的庫存過剩頭寸。我們認為今天沒有任何領域存在風險。關於我們希望看到更多流量的領域，我想說的是今天仍然存在的唯一領域，它正在變得更好一些，但它不是我們希望看到的領域。我們可能屬於包裝食品類別。目前還沒有太多突破。我不確定它會帶來多少，但我們在過去幾週看到了一些改善。但我們仍在獲得應有的份額，但我們希望獲得更多。但除此之外，我們看到了巨大的流量，我們認為我們現在所攜帶的東西沒有任何風險。

And Paul, this is Jay. On the SG&A side, I would tell you we run pretty lean already. Obviously, payroll would be the lever we would look to pull. That's our biggest impact on the expenses. If sales are softer than what we're forecasting, we would attempt to recover just some portion of that in payroll. We can't obviously get it all back.

保羅，這是傑伊。在 SG&A 方面，我會告訴你我們已經非常精簡了。顯然，工資單將是我們希望拉動的槓桿。這是我們對費用的最大影響。如果銷售額低於我們的預測，我們將嘗試將其中的一部分恢復到工資單中。我們顯然無法全部恢復。

Otherwise, yes, I think we run pretty lean. We are seeing some cost pressures on our advertising. From a print standpoint, the cost of printing has gone up. And then also utilities are significantly up year-over-year. So we've got those things embedded into our model, and it's not huge dollars, but adding a little bit of headwind. So I think that's how I would answer that.

否則，是的，我認為我們運行得非常精簡。我們看到我們的廣告面臨一些成本壓力。從印刷的角度來看，印刷成本上升了。然後公用事業也同比大幅增長。所以我們已經將這些東西嵌入到我們的模型中，這不是巨額資金，而是增加了一點阻力。所以我想這就是我要回答的方式。

Got it. Good luck.

知道了。祝你好運。

Thank you, Paul.

謝謝你，保羅。

And our next question comes from the line of Scot Ciccarelli with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scot Ciccarelli 與 Truist 的對話。

This is Josh on for Scott. Our question is on the remodels. Can you guys provide any more detail on the cost there and maybe in the early results you're seeing in terms of the comp lift from those stores?

這是斯科特的喬希。我們的問題是關於改造。你們能否提供更多有關那裡成本的詳細信息，也許在您從這些商店的競爭提升方面看到的早期結果中？

Sure, Josh. This is Eric. I'll take the question. We're not going to go into the specifics on comp lift. It's only 6 stores. So keep that in mind that we completed. We're on track to complete 30 stores. And the 6 stores are in line with our expectations, meeting our expectations. And our expectations are an average investment of 125,000 will get a return in 2 years or less, and those 6 stores are meeting that expectation. So we're going to continue to move forward and read customer feedback and results and update again in the quarter.

當然，喬希。這是埃里克。我來回答這個問題。我們不打算詳細介紹壓縮提升。只有6家店。所以請記住，我們已經完成了。我們有望完成 30 家門店的建設。而這6家店都符合我們的預期，符合我們的預期。我們的預期是平均投資 125,000 將在 2 年或更短的時間內獲得回報，而這 6 家商店正在滿足這一預期。因此，我們將繼續前進，閱讀客戶反饋和結果，並在本季度再次更新。

And our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Hamblin with Craig-Hallum.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jeremy Hamblin 和 Craig-Hallum 的對話。

I want to come back to the gross margins for a second. So the guidance change about 60 basis points, you noted a couple of factors in that. Supply chain, maybe still a little bit worse than expected but also a product mix shift, I think, was called out. Could you quantify the split between those 2 and the 60 basis point change for the year? And which particular product categories that -- in that negative mix shift that would be driving that downside?

我想再談談毛利率。所以指導變化了大約 60 個基點，你注意到其中的幾個因素。供應鏈可能仍比預期差一點，但我認為還需要進行產品組合轉變。您能否量化當年這 2 個基點和 60 個基點變化之間的差異？哪些特定的產品類別——在那種負面的組合轉變中會導致這種下行？

Jeremy, this is Jay, and I can start to address that. I mean, for our internal model, we had about a 50 basis point change. And so part of that, to your point, is absorbing -- actualizing Q1 and then the mix component that we're estimating going forward. And I would say it's about half and half between those 2 components. There's also a little deleveraging on the sales given that we took down in the back half, but that's probably 10 basis points of it.

傑里米，這是傑伊，我可以開始解決這個問題了。我的意思是，對於我們的內部模型，我們有大約 50 個基點的變化。因此，就您的觀點而言，其中一部分是吸收——實現第一季度，然後是我們正在估計的混合組件。我會說這兩個組件之間大約各佔一半。考慮到我們在後半段下降，銷售額也有一些去槓桿化，但這可能是它的 10 個基點。

And then going forward, obviously, and John or Eric might speak to this as well, but we're seeing strong sales trends in the consumables. So that's putting pressure on the mix. And at the same time, right, it's the other side of the equation. Some of the products, the categories that aren't moving as strong that we would typically have a higher margin on, whether that's books or domestics. Eventually, all of that will shake out. And part of our margin guidance is the focus on making sure that we provide value to the consumer. At this point in this environment, we think that's critical moving forward.

然後很明顯，約翰或埃里克也可能會談到這一點，但我們看到了消耗品的強勁銷售趨勢。所以這給組合帶來了壓力。同時，對，這是等式的另一邊。有些產品，無論是書籍還是國內產品，都沒有我們通常會獲得更高利潤的那樣強勁。最終，所有這一切都會消失。我們的利潤指導的一部分是專注於確保我們為消費者提供價值。在這種環境下的這一點上，我們認為向前邁進至關重要。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just on a go-forward basis, so it sounds like by Q4 you are feeling pretty good that you're going to be back to 39% or maybe slightly better than that, a more normalized margins. If we can take the crystal ball and look ahead a little bit, there's obviously a lot of noise, supply chain and so forth. But in terms of thinking about '23 and you're now seeing your normalized sales levels that have gotten back above 2019 levels, from a gross margin standpoint, is there anything that you see now that you're seeing better throughput, improvements in deal flow, presumably maybe a more normalized return on the product mix where your gross margins wouldn't be returning to what your typical levels would be in that kind of 39.5% to 40% for the full year?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後只是在前進的基礎上，所以聽起來好像到第四季度你感覺很好，你將回到 39% 或者可能略好於此，一個更正常化的利潤率。如果我們能拿著水晶球向前看一點，顯然會有很多噪音、供應鍊等等。但就 23 年的思考而言，你現在看到你的標準化銷售水平已經回到 2019 年的水平之上，從毛利率的角度來看，你現在看到的是什麼，你看到更好的吞吐量，交易的改善流，大概是產品組合的更正常化的回報，在這種情況下，你的毛利率不會回到全年 39.5% 到 40% 的典型水平？

Jeremy, this is John. I would tell you, for 2023, I feel pretty confident that we would see a normalized gross margin rolling out as early as Q1. I don't foresee too much pressures in 2023 once we annualize the heavy load we're carrying right now with the import costs and whatnot and the increased supply chain. So I think you start to see the benefit in Q4, and I think we'll be back to pretty much normalized levels in Q1 in full year 2023.

傑里米，這是約翰。我會告訴你，到 2023 年，我非常有信心我們最早會在第一季度看到正常化的毛利率。一旦我們將我們現在承受的沉重負擔與進口成本和諸如此類的東西以及增加的供應鏈進行年度化，我預計 2023 年不會有太大壓力。所以我認為你會在第四季度開始看到好處，我認為我們將在 2023 年全年的第一季度恢復到幾乎正常的水平。

Great. Best wishes, Jay.

偉大的。最良好的祝愿，傑伊。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And our next question comes from the line of Randy Konik with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Randy Konik 與 Jefferies 的合作。

I think there was a mention before earlier in the call around container rates improving. Can you just expand upon that a little bit and give us some perspective on how much improvement you've seen and when those improvements start to take hold, I guess, in the contracted rates?

我認為之前在電話會議中提到過集裝箱費率的提高。你能否稍微擴展一下，讓我們了解一下你看到了多少改進，以及這些改進何時開始在合同費率中發揮作用？

Sure. The -- most of our contracts, Randy, start May 1. And so we begin to incur the benefit of those contracts when they sail, which is starting in June. So we're kind of right on top of beginning to realize some of the savings. When you look at last year, we had peak import rates around kind of the peak of the market, say, starting in August into September, October. And it really didn't stop at some of the absolute peak spot market rates. We're right at that September, October time frame. So we're up against rates when you hit -- when we hit peak versus contract. We're approximately 50% less on contract versus some of the peak spot rates we were paying. I'm not going to get into too many specifics on our contract rates, but also know that we've lost some flexibility to leverage spot market as we move into the back half of the year with at least some expectation that spot market rates could be favorable this year.

當然。我們的大部分合同，蘭迪，從 5 月 1 日開始。因此，我們開始在 6 月開始航行時享受這些合同的好處。因此，我們即將開始實現一些節省。看看去年，我們的進口率在市場高峰期左右達到峰值，比如從 8 月到 9 月、10 月。而且它確實並沒有停留在一些絕對峰值的現貨市場利率上。我們正處於 9 月、10 月的時間範圍內。因此，當您達到峰值時，我們會遇到利率 - 當我們達到峰值時與合同相比。與我們支付的一些峰值即期匯率相比，我們的合同大約減少了 50%。我不打算詳細介紹我們的合同利率，但我也知道，隨著我們進入今年下半年，我們已經失去了利用現貨市場的一些靈活性，至少有一些人預計現貨市場利率可能會下降。今年有利。

Super helpful. And then I guess the press release also talked about higher wages in select markets was the exact kind of quote. So can you give us maybe an update on labor market, labor wage increases? Are we starting to see that start to peak out in areas? Just kind of what's the outlook there for wages and so on and so forth?

超級有幫助。然後我猜新聞稿也談到了特定市場的更高工資是確切的報價。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下勞動力市場、勞動力工資增長的最新情況？我們是否開始看到該地區開始達到頂峰？只是工資等方面的前景如何？

Yes. I think, Randy, from a wage perspective, as we've always said, we adjust wages market by market by market. So whenever we see -- especially going through new market, we adjust according to what other retailers are paying. And for an existing market, we start to see pressures with hiring. We will adjust accordingly. Not seeing a ton of change in the existing market that we're in, existing markets we're in today. New markets, we're working through as we go through them. The DCs, knock on wood, have been pretty stable. But when I say that, it could change tomorrow. So I don't hang my hat on the DC wages because that world is evolving each and every day. So we watch it, but we've been pretty steady for a while. So I'll just leave it at that. And if we have adjustments we need to make, we will make them accordingly to keep the supply chain stable because it's more costly not to have people working than not. So we feel pretty good.

是的。我認為，蘭迪，從工資的角度來看，正如我們一直所說的那樣，我們逐個市場地調整工資。因此，每當我們看到 - 特別是通過新市場時，我們都會根據其他零售商的支付進行調整。對於現有市場，我們開始看到招聘壓力。我們會相應調整。沒有看到我們所處的現有市場發生大量變化，我們今天所處的現有市場。新市場，我們正在努力通過它們。敲敲木頭的 DC 一直非常穩定。但當我這麼說時，明天可能會改變。所以我不會對 DC 的工資掛在嘴邊，因為那個世界每天都在發展。所以我們看著它，但我們已經相當穩定了一段時間。所以我就把它留在那兒。如果我們需要做出調整，我們會相應地做出調整以保持供應鏈穩定，因為不讓人工作的成本更高。所以我們感覺很好。

We're still pretty good where we're sitting. And I think things are changing in the world. So we'll see where it goes, but we're going to continue to be competitive to get the workers and be able to run the model properly.

我們坐的地方仍然很好。我認為世界正在發生變化。所以我們會看到它的發展方向，但我們將繼續保持競爭力以吸引工人並能夠正確運行模型。

I guess last thing to just ask is, I guess, for Jay is when you then kind of think about what we just talked about where it sounds like there's more visibility in the freight costs losing flexibility or on the spot market but you have more visibility and it sounds like there's more stabilization around labor and wages, I guess what I'm trying to ask is does there -- is there more kind of a clearer picture in kind of being able to make that annual guide at this point of the year versus maybe what you kind of guided to obviously at the beginning of the year? There's just more visibility towards the model. Is that fair?

我想最後要問的是，我猜，因為 Jay 是當你想一想我們剛才談到的，聽起來運費成本失去靈活性或在現貨市場上有更多的可見性，但你有更多的可見性聽起來勞動力和工資更加穩定了，我想我想問的是那裡有沒有更清晰的畫面，能夠在每年的這個時候制定年度指南與你在年初明顯指導的是什麼？模型的可見性更高。這公平嗎？

Yes. I think on the supply chain side of things, I think that's a fair comment. I think on the store labor front, we have visibility to that, too, and it's a dynamic market. And obviously, we still have a big bogey if -- we talk about it on every call, but if we had to adjust wages like $15 an hour across the board, which we would never do, that's a big nut.

是的。我認為在供應鏈方面，我認為這是一個公平的評論。我認為在商店勞動力方面，我們也能看到這一點，這是一個充滿活力的市場。顯然，如果——我們在每次電話會議上都談論它，但如果我們不得不全面調整每小時 15 美元的工資，而我們永遠不會這樣做，那將是一個大問題。

So yes, I agree with you, Randy. I would say that the component -- a couple of components that come to my mind that are maybe a little more uncertain would be bunker fuel, diesel fuel rates. Obviously, we've got a forecast, and we're doing our best, but that's a volatile market and then I think what we've already talked about on the merchandise mix side and how that plays out in the future on what consumers are buying and what we do to lean in on price.

所以是的，我同意你的看法，蘭迪。我會說這個組成部分——我想到的幾個可能更不確定的組成部分是船用燃料、柴油燃料費率。顯然，我們已經做出了預測，並且我們正在盡力而為，但這是一個動蕩的市場，然後我認為我們已經在商品組合方面討論過的內容以及未來消費者的需求如何購買以及我們如何依靠價格。

And I'm showing no further questions at this time. And I would like to turn the conference back over to John Swygert for any further remarks.

我現在沒有進一步提問。我想將會議轉回給 John Swygert 以聽取進一步的評論。

Thank you, everyone, for your participating in today's call and continued support. We look forward to updating you on our second quarter results on our next earnings call. Stay safe. Thank you.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議並繼續支持。我們期待在下次財報電話會議上向您更新我們第二季度的業績。注意安全。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。大家，祝你有美好的一天。