Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to Ollie's Bargain Outlet conference call to discuss financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025. Please be advised that this call is being recorded, and the reproduction of this call in whole or in part, is not permitted without the express written authorization of Ollie's.

    早安,歡迎參加 Ollie's Bargain Outlet 的電話會議,我們將討論 2025 財年第三季的財務表現。請注意,本次通話正在錄音,未經 Ollie's 的明確書面授權,不得全部或部分複製本次通話內容。

  • I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, John Rouleau, Managing Director of Corporate Communications and Business Development for Ollie's. John, please go ahead.

    現在我謹向大家介紹今天電話會議的主持人,Ollie's 公司企業傳播與業務發展總經理 John Rouleau。約翰,請繼續。

  • John Rouleau - Managing Director of Corporate Communications and Business Development

    John Rouleau - Managing Director of Corporate Communications and Business Development

  • Thank you, and good morning, everybody. We appreciate your time and participation. Joining me on today's call from Ollie's are Eric van der Valk, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Robert Helm, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝大家,大家早安。感謝您抽空參與。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 Ollie's 公司的總裁兼執行長 Eric van der Valk,以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Robert Helm。

  • Following their prepared remarks, we will open the call for your questions. We ask that you initially limit yourself to one question to ensure that everyone has the opportunity to participate. If you have additional questions, please reenter the queue.

    在他們發言結束後,我們將開放提問環節。為了確保每個人都有機會參與,我們要求您最初只提一個問題。如果您還有其他問題,請重新排隊。

  • Finally, let me remind you that certain comments made on today's call may constitute forward-looking statements, and these are made pursuant to and within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended. Such forward-looking statements are subject to both known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements.

    最後,我想提醒各位,今天電話會議上發表的某些評論可能構成前瞻性陳述,這些陳述是根據經修訂的 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款作出的,並且符合該條款的含義。此類前瞻性陳述受到已知和未知風險及不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與此類陳述有重大差異。

  • These risks and uncertainties are described in the company's earnings press release and filings with the SEC, including the annual report on Form 10-K and the quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. Forward-looking statements made today are as of the date of this call, and the company does not undertake any obligation to update these statements.

    這些風險和不確定性在公司的獲利新聞稿和提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中均有描述,包括 10-K 表格年度報告和 10-Q 表格季度報告。今天所作的前瞻性陳述僅代表截至本次電話會議之日的信息,本公司不承擔更新這些陳述的任何義務。

  • On today's call, the company will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation of the most closely comparable GAAP financial measures to the non-GAAP financial measures are included in the company's earnings press release.

    在今天的電話會議上,公司將提及某些非GAAP財務指標。本公司獲利新聞稿中包含了與非GAAP財務指標最接近的GAAP財務指標的調節表。

  • With that all said, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Eric.

    說了這麼多,我很高興把電話交給艾瑞克。

  • Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning. Thank you for joining us today. Our team delivered another strong performance in the third quarter. We opened a record number of new stores, continued to accelerate membership growth in our Ollie's Army Loyalty Program, widen our price gaps to the fancy stores and delivered industry-leading sales growth all while driving significant improvement on the bottom line. We are primed and ready for the final days of the holiday season.

    早安.感謝您今天蒞臨。我們的團隊在第三季再次取得了優異的成績。我們開設了創紀錄數量的新店,繼續加速 Ollie's Army 會員忠誠計劃的會員增長,擴大了與高檔商店的價格差距,並實現了行業領先的銷售增長,同時還顯著提高了利潤。我們已做好充分準備,迎接假期的最後幾天。

  • Our expanded assortment of seasonal and gift items along with our amazing deals of brand name household products make us the holiday shopping destination. Comp trend since early October have been strong, and we feel great about our momentum heading into the final weeks of the holiday season with a better-than-expected third quarter results and a very good start to the fourth quarter, we are raising our full year sales and earnings outlook.

    我們豐富的季節性商品和禮品種類,以及品牌家居用品的超值優惠,使我們成為假日購物的理想去處。自 10 月初以來,同店銷售趨勢強勁,我們對進入假日季最後幾週的勢頭感到非常滿意。第三季業績好於預期,第四季開局也非常好,因此我們提高了全年銷售額和獲利預期。

  • Let me provide an update on our strategic growth initiatives and some of the things we are doing from a merchandising, marketing and supply chain perspective to drive our business. Accelerated unit growth and customer acquisition remains our top priority. We have a predictable, portable and profitable store model that is unlike anything else in the market. We have a huge opportunity ahead of us to continue growing. Our long-term target is 1,500 stores, and we are committed to a minimum 10% annual unit growth to get there.

    讓我向大家介紹一下我們的策略性成長計劃,以及我們從商品銷售、行銷和供應鏈角度為推動業務發展所做的一些工作。加快銷售成長和客戶獲取仍然是我們的首要任務。我們擁有可預測、可移植且獲利的門市模式,這在市場上是獨一無二的。我們面前有巨大的發展機會。我們的長期目標是開設 1500 家門市,我們承諾每年至少增加 10% 的門市數量來實現這一目標。

  • We have the talent, and have built the infrastructure to exceed our long-term algo and are delivering accelerated unit growth. We opened 32 new stores in the third quarter and 86 for the year, which is 18% growth. This blew away previous Ollie's records and demonstrated our ability to exceed our algo opportunistically. The current environment has been challenging for many retailers and this, coupled with long-term consolidation of retail, presents a pivotal opportunity for Ollie's to secure attractive second-generation real estate sites. Our entire team deserves a huge shout out for their achievements this year.

    我們擁有人才,並已建立起超越長期演算法的基礎設施,正在實現加速的單位成長。第三季我們新開了 32 家門市,全年共開了 86 家,較去年同期成長 18%。這打破了 Ollie 先前的記錄,並證明了我們有能力抓住機會超越演算法的預測結果。當前環境對許多零售商來說充滿挑戰,再加上零售業的長期整合,這為 Ollie's 提供了一個關鍵機會,使其能夠獲得有吸引力的第二代房地產地塊。我們整個團隊今年的成就值得熱烈表揚。

  • Not only do we open a record number of new stores. All of our stores were opened before the fourth quarter. We have not made this happen for years and this allows us to be 100% focused on driving the business in the final months of the year and the critical holiday shopping period. Thank you again, Ollie's dream team of discount retail for making this happen. Opening stores is the first component of our growth strategy.

    我們不僅開設了創紀錄數量的新店。我們所有的門市都在第四季之前開業。多年來我們一直未能實現這一點,這使我們能夠 100% 專注於在一年中的最後幾個月和關鍵的假日購物季推動業務發展。再次感謝 Ollie's 折扣零售夢幻團隊促成此事。開店是我們成長策略的第一步。

  • Next is winning the hearts and minds of new customers. We have some of the most dedicated and passionate customers in the business and are fiercely committed group. As we open -- as we continue to open new stores, we are focused on acquiring new customers and turning them into loyal Ollie's Army Bargain knots. Our members shop more frequently and spend over 40% more per visit than nonmembers. They are very important to our business, and we have an opportunity to strengthen our connection and drive lifetime customer value.

    接下來是贏得新客戶的信任與支持。我們擁有業內最忠誠、最熱情的客戶群,並且我們是一個極其敬業的團隊。隨著我們不斷開設新店,我們專注於獲取新客戶,並將他們轉化為 Ollie's Army Bargain 的忠實擁躉。我們的會員購物頻率較高,每次購物的消費額比非會員高出 40% 以上。他們對我們的業務非常重要,我們有機會加強與他們的聯繫,並提升客戶的終身價值。

  • We are very pleased with customer growth in the third quarter. New memberships in our Loyalty Program increased 30% year-over-year, while our customer profile increased 12%. We have seen new customer acquisitions strengthen since the first half of the year and engagement with our existing customers remain strong. Both the younger and higher income groups were the fastest-growing cohorts in the quarter, which we think is in part driven by the continued reallocation of marketing dollars to digital, consumers seeking value and customers trading down.

    我們對第三季的客戶成長非常滿意。我們的會員忠誠計畫新增會員數量年增 30%,而我們的客戶群成長了 12%。自上半年以來,我們看到新客戶獲取量增加,與現有客戶的互動也保持強勁。年輕族群和高收入群體是本季成長最快的群體,我們認為這部分是由於行銷資金持續向數位化轉移、消費者尋求價值以及客戶降低消費檔次所致。

  • We also continue to enhance the value proposition of our Ollie's Army Loyalty Program. Last quarter, we talked about the success of the additional Ollie's Army Night and some of the learnings there. The biggest takeaway was the adjustment to the start time of the event. We received positive feedback about the earlier start time and experienced increased foot traffic as a result. The upcoming Ollie's Army Night on Sunday, December 14, will run from 4:00 PM to 9:00 PM compared to 6:00 PM to 10:00 PM last year. If you're not already a member of Ollie's Army, what are you waiting for? We invite you to join and we look forward to seeing all of you this Sunday.

    我們將持續提升 Ollie's Army 會員忠誠計畫的價值主張。上個季度,我們討論了新增的 Ollie's Army Night 活動的成功以及從中汲取的一些經驗教訓。最大的收穫是調整了活動的開始時間。我們收到了關於提前開課時間的正面回饋,客流量也因此增加。即將到來的 Ollie's Army Night 活動將於 12 月 14 日星期日舉行,時間為下午 4 點至晚上 9 點,而去年為下午 6 點至晚上 10 點。如果你還不是 Ollie's Army 的一員,那你還在等什麼呢?我們誠摯邀請您參加,期待本週日見到大家。

  • On the Merchandising front, let me touch on how we're steering our product mix to drive sales productivity and enhance new customer acquisition. Our flexible buying model and treasure hunt shopping experience give us unlimited flexibility in how we assemble our product offering. Our buyers are continuously scouring the marketplace to find the best products at the best prices to put together an ever-changing assortment that combines quality, national brands and price in a way that can only be found at Ollie's.

    在商品銷售方面,我想談談我們如何調整產品組合以提高銷售效率並增強新客戶獲取能力。我們靈活的採購模式和尋寶式的購物體驗,讓我們在產品組合方面擁有無限的靈活性。我們的採購人員不斷在市場上搜尋最優質的產品和最優惠的價格,精心挑選,打造出不斷更新的產品系列,將品質、全國品牌和價格完美結合,這種獨特的組合方式只有在 Ollie's 才能找到。

  • At the same time, we know that customers are prioritizing their spending around their needs and are looking for value. By focusing on value-driven consumable deals, we achieved mid-single-digit increase in comparable store transactions, attracting new customers and increasing engagement. ur deal flow continues to be very strong and driven in part by the challenging retail environment. On top of this, our growing size and scale is starting to give us opportunity to steer our category mix.

    同時,我們也知道客戶會根據自身需求優先考慮支出,並追求價值。透過專注於高性價比的消費品促銷活動,我們實現了同店交易額中等個位數的成長,吸引了新客戶並提升了客戶參與度。我們的促銷活動持續強勁,部分原因是受到充滿挑戰的零售環境的影響。除此之外,我們不斷成長的規模也開始為我們帶來機會來引導我們的品類組合。

  • A good example of this is the increased investment we made in the Seasonal category. As you may have seen in our stores, we dramatically increased the assortment of seasonal decor over the past year, with the most meaningful changes taking place in our Fall Harvest, Halloween and Christmas categories. We also grew our Holiday Gift Programs that we initially successfully tested last year. The changes have been well received by our consumers with Seasonal being one of our top performing categories in the quarter and throughout the year. Marketing continues to be a critical lever in fueling the growth of our business.

    一個很好的例子就是我們增加了對季節性商品類別的投資。正如您可能在我們的商店中看到的那樣,過去一年我們大幅增加了季節性裝飾品的種類,其中變化最大的是秋收、萬聖節和聖誕節類別。我們也擴大了去年成功試行的節慶禮品計畫。這些變化受到了消費者的好評,季節性商品是我們本季乃至全年表現最佳的類別之一。行銷仍然是推動我們業務成長的關鍵槓桿。

  • And over the past year, we've been accelerating a major evolution in how we connect with our customers. As consumer attention shifts continues to shift towards digital platforms, our strategy is shifting as well.

    在過去一年裡,我們一直在加速推動與客戶溝通方式的重大變革。隨著消費者註意力不斷向數位平台轉移,我們的策略也隨之改變。

  • By moving from traditional linear and print-heavy approaches to a more dynamic digital-first strategy, we can deliver the right message to the right person in the right place at exactly the right time. A recent comprehensive review of our media mix model indicated a significant opportunity to further reallocate print spend to digital media. Acting on this data, we put a test in place and our strategic reallocation is already proving out. October was our strongest month of the quarter at a time when we meaningfully reduced our print campaign. This allowed us to leverage our media spend while driving sales above plan in the quarter.

    透過從傳統的線性、以印刷為主的方式轉向更具活力的數位化優先策略,我們可以在正確的時間將正確的訊息傳遞給正確的人在正確的地點。最近對我們的媒體組合模式進行的全面審查表明,有很大的機會將印刷支出進一步重新分配給數位媒體。根據這些數據,我們進行了測試,而我們的策略重新配置已經證明是有效的。10 月份是我們本季業績最好的一個月,同時,我們大幅縮減了印刷宣傳活動。這使我們能夠充分利用媒體支出,並在本季度實現超預期的銷售額。

  • More importantly, this is in pursuit of a smarter, more targeted, more modern marketing ecosystem. To support the growth of our business, we continue to invest in our supply chain.

    更重要的是,這是為了追求一個更聰明、更有針對性、更現代化的行銷生態系統。為了支持業務成長,我們將繼續投資於供應鏈。

  • Over the next year, we plan to expand our Texas distribution center by 150,000 square feet and increase our service capacity by approximately 50 stores to 800. Next on the list is the expansion of our Illinois distribution center, which will start late next year. Our supply chain investments have driven throughput, leverage costs and expanded our capacity to buy any deal, anytime, anywhere as we continue on our path of continuous growth.

    在接下來的一年裡,我們計劃將我們在德州的配送中心擴建 15 萬平方英尺,並將我們的服務能力提高約 50 家門市,達到 800 家。接下來,我們將擴建伊利諾州配送中心,該計畫將於明年年底啟動。我們在供應鏈方面的投資提高了吞吐量,降低了成本,並擴大了我們隨時隨地購買任何商品的能力,從而繼續保持持續增長的勢頭。

  • I would like to thank all of our dedicated and hard working associates. Deep discount retail is not an easy business, and it requires continuous coordination and relentless execution. We came in this year with a very unique opportunity to accelerate our growth and capture abandoned market share from the store closures and distressed retailers. Our team was ready for the challenge and stepped up all year long. I want to wish everyone happy holidays and hope that all of our team members are able to enjoy time with friends and family.

    我要感謝我們所有敬業勤奮的同事們。深度折扣零售並非易事,需要持續的協調和堅持不懈的執行。今年我們迎來了一個非常獨特的機遇,可以加速成長,並從倒閉的商店和陷入困境的零售商手中奪取被放棄的市場份額。我們的團隊做好了迎接挑戰的準備,並且全年都在努力奮鬥。祝大家節日快樂,希望我們所有團隊成員都能與親朋好友共度美好時光。

  • Now, let me turn the call over to Rob.

    現在,我把電話交給羅布。

  • Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Eric. And good morning, everyone. We are very pleased with our third quarter results and the momentum in our business. New store openings, new store performance, sales and earnings were all ahead of our expectations for the quarter. With better-than-expected results and a very good start to the fourth quarter, we're raising our full year sales and earnings outlook.

    謝謝你,埃里克。大家早安。我們對第三季的業績和業務發展動能非常滿意。本季新店開幕、新店業績、銷售額和收益均超出我們的預期。由於業績優於預期,第四季開局良好,我們上調了全年銷售額和獲利預期。

  • Accelerating new unit growth and expanding the Ollie's Army loyalty program are two big priorities this year. We are delivering on both of these initiatives. We opened 32 new stores in the third quarter and ended the period with a total of 645 stores, an increase of more than 18% year-over-year. Ollie's Army members increased 12% to 16.6 million members strong, driven by new customer acquisition. With the consumer buying closer to need and prioritizing the necessity over discretionary items, this has driven strength in consumer stables.

    今年的兩大重點是加速新單位發展和擴大 Ollie's Army 忠誠度計劃。我們正在推動這兩項措施。我們在第三季開設了 32 家新店,截至該季末,門市總數達到 645 家,年增超過 18%。Ollie's Army 會員人數增加 12%,達到 1,660 萬,主要得益於新客戶的加入。由於消費者在購買時更傾向於按需購買,並將必需品置於非必需品之上,這推動了消費品市場的強勁增長。

  • Our flexible buying model has allowed us to feed this trend, which has been very well received by customers. We have also taken advantage of a number of closeout deals that have fueled positive trends in customer acquisition transactions and unit volumes.

    我們靈活的採購模式使我們能夠順應這一趨勢,而這一趨勢也受到了顧客的熱烈歡迎。我們也利用了一些清倉甩賣的機會,推動了客戶獲取交易和產品銷售的正面趨勢。

  • We intentionally pursued these deals to drive customer growth and engagement even as they put some pressure on average unit retail and basket size. Now, let me run through our P&L numbers. Net sales increased 19% to $614 million, driven by new store openings and comparable store sales growth. Comparable store sales increased 3.3%, driven by a mid-single-digit increase in transactions which was partially offset by a decrease in average ticket price. Our top five performing categories were Food, Seasonal, Hardware, Stationery and Lawn Garden.

    我們有意促成這些交易,以推動客戶成長和參與,儘管這些交易會對平均單價和客單價帶來一些壓力。現在,讓我來看看我們的損益表數據。淨銷售額成長 19% 至 6.14 億美元,主要得益於新店開業和同店銷售額成長。同店銷售額成長 3.3%,主要得益於交易量中等個位數的成長,但部分被平均客單價的下降所抵銷。我們表現最佳的五大類別分別是食品、時令商品、五金、文具和草坪花園用品。

  • Gross margin decreased 10 basis points to 41.3%. The slight decrease was better than our expectations and was driven by higher supply chain costs, primarily incremental tariff expenses were partially offset by higher merchandise margins.

    毛利率下降10個基點至41.3%。此次小幅下降優於我們的預期,主要原因是供應鏈成本上升,尤其是關稅支出增加,但部分被商品利潤率上升所抵銷。

  • SG&A expenses as a percent of net sales decreased 50 basis points to 29.4%, with the decrease primarily driven by lower professional fees stock-based compensation and leverage from the continued optimization of our marketing ecosystem. Preopening expenses increased 3% to $7 million in the quarter, driven by new store growth and $1 million of Dark rent expense associated with the former (inaudible) locations that were acquired through the bankruptcy auction process.

    銷售、一般及行政費用佔淨銷售額的百分比下降了 50 個基點至 29.4%,下降的主要原因是專業費用、股票選擇權激勵以及行銷生態系統持續優化帶來的槓桿效應降低。本季開業前費用增加 3% 至 700 萬美元,主要原因是新店成長以及與透過破產拍賣程序收購的先前(聽不清楚)地點相關的 100 萬美元停業租金支出。

  • Moving down to the bottom line. Adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share increased 29% to $46 million and $0.75, respectively, for the quarter. Lastly, adjusted EBITDA increased 22% to $73 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin increased 30 basis points to 11.9% for the quarter.

    深入探討最根本的問題。本季經調整後的淨利和經調整後的每股盈餘分別成長 29% 至 4,600 萬美元和 0.75 美元。最後,經調整的 EBITDA 成長了 22%,達到 7,300 萬美元,經調整的 EBITDA 利潤率在本季度增長了 30 個基點,達到 11.9%。

  • Turning to the balance sheet. Our total cash and investments increased by 42% to $432 million, and we had no meaningful long-term debt at the end of the quarter. Given the nature of our business, the strength of our balance sheet is a strategic asset. Our financial stability, the visibility of being a public company and our size and scale helps distinguish us in the closeout and off-price space.

    接下來看一下資產負債表。我們的現金和投資總額增加了 42%,達到 4.32 億美元,並且在本季末我們沒有實質的長期債務。鑑於我們業務的性質,穩健的資產負債表是一項策略性資產。我們的財務穩定性、作為一家上市公司的知名度以及我們的規模和體積,使我們在清倉和折扣商品領域脫穎而出。

  • As a result, we remain committed to a fortress type of balance sheet that helps drive our business. Inventories increased 16% year-over-year, primarily driven by our accelerating store growth and strong deal flow. Capital expenditures totaled $31 million for the quarter, with the majority of the spending going towards the opening of new stores, the build-out of the bankruptcy acquired stores and to a lesser degree, investments in both our supply chain and existing stores. We bought back $12 million worth of our common stock in the quarter and had $293 million remaining under our current share repurchase authorization at the end of the quarter.

    因此,我們始終致力於打造穩健的資產負債表,以推動業務發展。庫存年增 16%,主要得益於門市加速成長和強勁的促銷活動。本季資本支出總額為 3,100 萬美元,其中大部分支出用於開設新店、擴大破產收購的門市,以及少量用於投資我們的供應鏈和現有門市。本季我們回購了價值 1,200 萬美元的普通股,截至季末,我們目前的股票回購授權額度還剩 2.93 億美元。

  • Lastly, let me run through our outlook for fiscal 2025. We we're raising both our sales and earnings outlook for the full year. Our revised outlook flows through the upside in our third quarter results and mostly keeps our outlook for the fourth quarter in place. It also assumes the current tariffs remain in place for the balance of the year. Our updated guidance figures are contained in the table in our earnings release posted this morning and include, 86 new store openings, net sales of $2.648 billion to $2.655 billion, comparable store sales growth of 3.2% to 3.5%, gross margin in the range of 40.3%.

    最後,讓我簡單介紹一下我們對 2025 財年的展望。我們上調了全年銷售額和獲利預期。我們修訂後的展望反映了第三季業績的利好,並基本維持了我們對第四季的展望不變。它還假設目前的關稅政策在今年剩餘時間內保持不變。我們更新後的業績指引數據包含在今天早上發布的盈利報告中的表格中,其中包括:新開86家門店,淨銷售額為26.48億美元至26.55億美元,同店銷售額增長3.2%至3.5%,毛利率在40.3%左右。

  • Operating income of $293 million to $298 million, and adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share of $236 million to $239 million and $3.81 to $3.87, respectively. These estimates assume depreciation and amortization expenses of $55 million, inclusive of $15 million within cost of goods sold, preopening expenses of $25 million, which is slightly higher than the previous guidance with our pipeline for the first quarter now set an annual effective tax rate of approximately 24%, which excludes the tax benefits related to stock-based compensation, diluted weighted average shares outstanding of approximately $62 million and capital expenditures of approximately $88 million, which includes the buildout of the former Big Lots locations and the initial expenses associated with the expansion of our DC in Texas.

    營業收入為 2.93 億美元至 2.98 億美元,調整後淨收入為 2.36 億美元至 2.39 億美元,調整後每股收益為 3.81 美元至 3.87 美元。這些估算假設折舊和攤銷費用為 5,500 萬美元,其中包括銷售成本中的 1,500 萬美元;開業前費用為 2,500 萬美元,略高於我們第一季的預期;年有效稅率約為 24%,不包括與股票選擇權相關的稅收優惠;稀釋後加權平均流通股數約為 6,200 萬美元;門市的改造以及與我們在德州的配送中心擴建相關的初始費用。

  • Our fourth quarter comp outlook is now in the range of positive 2% to 3%. We will not be opening any additional stores in fiscal 2025, but our new openings in fiscal 2026 are set and will again be front-end weighted. Given the strength of our pipeline, we expect new store openings in 2026 to remain above our long-term growth algo, and we're targeting 75 new stores next year.

    我們對第四季同業成長的預期目前在2%至3%之間。2025 財年我們將不會開設任何新店,但 2026 財年的新店開業計劃已經確定,並且將再次以前端為主。鑑於我們強大的專案儲備,我們預計 2026 年新店開幕數量將高於我們的長期成長演算法,我們的目標是明年開設 75 家新店。

  • In closing, let me thank my fellow team members for their work and dedication this year. We came into the year with a unique opportunity to accelerate our growth and increase our market share. This required a lot of coordination and effort across the organization, and I couldn't be more proud of how our teams have executed this year. With a strong assortment of both seasonal and everyday items, we feel good about our positioning heading into the holidays and are poised to finish the year strong. Happy holidays to all of our associates and team members around the country.

    最後,我要感謝我的團隊成員們今年所付出的努力和奉獻。今年年初,我們迎來了一個獨特的機遇,可以加速成長並提高市場佔有率。這需要整個組織進行大量的協調和努力,我對我們團隊今年的執行感到無比自豪。憑藉豐富的季節性商品和日常用品,我們對即將到來的假期季節的市場定位充滿信心,並有望在年底前取得佳績。祝全國各地的同事和團隊成​​員節日快樂。

  • Now, let me turn the call back to Eric.

    現在,我把電話轉回給艾瑞克。

  • Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Rob. Looking ahead, we feel very good about our positioning. Customers are looking for value, manufacturers need ways to manage their supply chain and the retail sector is consolidating. Ollie's benefits from these powerful secular trends, which are reflected in our fundamentals. Our customer base is expanding.

    謝謝你,羅伯。展望未來,我們對自身的市場定位感到非常滿意。顧客追求物有所值,製造商需要管理供應鏈的方法,零售業正在整合。Ollie 受益於這些強大的長期趨勢,這些趨勢反映在我們的基本面中。我們的客戶群正在不斷擴大。

  • Our deal flow has been better. Our store growth is accelerating our price gaps are widening and our margins are expanding. We are delivering strong and consistent results. We are winning the hearts and minds of customers, and most importantly, we are Ollie's.

    我們的交易流程更加順暢了。我們的門市成長速度加快,價格差距擴大,利潤率也隨之提高。我們取得了強勁且穩定的業績。我們正在贏得顧客的愛,最重要的是,我們是 Ollie's。

  • Operator we are ready for questions.

    接線員,我們已準備好回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Chuck Grom, Gordon Haskett.

    (操作說明)查克·格羅姆,戈登·哈斯克特。

  • Chuck Grom - Analyst

    Chuck Grom - Analyst

  • I was hoping you could frame out the state of your consumer in light of your basket commentary. [DG] also spoke about some ticket compression during times of consumer dress recently and also historically. And then bigger picture, can you talk about your vendor relationships, both on the closeout on but more importantly, the steps you're taking to drive deeper CPG relationships?

    我希望您能結合您對購物籃的評論,闡述一下您消費者的現況。 [DG] 也談到了近期以及歷史上消費者服裝規範時期的一些客單價壓縮現象。從更宏觀的角度來看,您能否談談您與供應商的關係,包括合約的收尾工作,但更重要的是,您為深化與消費品產業的合作關係而採取的措施?

  • Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Thanks, Chuck, and good morning. Yes, I'll start with your -- the second part of your question. In terms of relationships. It's been a difficult environment for many traditional retailers with bankruptcy store closures, disruptions from tariffs. Customers continue to seek value. And we continue to grow our share of the order book of many vendors kind of regardless of the space that they're in. And CPG has certainly been a big component of that.

    當然。謝謝你,查克,早安。是的,我先回答你問題的第二部分。就人際關係而言。對許多傳統零售商來說,這是一個艱難的環境,他們面臨破產、店鋪倒閉和關稅的衝擊。顧客持續追求價值。而且,無論供應商身處哪個領域,我們都在不斷擴大我們在眾多供應商的訂單份額。而消費品產業無疑是其中的重要組成部分。

  • Our Food business is an indication of the strength of not only the customer looking for value in products they need, but also a deal flow that has been particularly strong in large part as a result of abandoned product or order book space and CPG order books that used to be sold to some of these companies that are no longer around or have consolidated. So that has been very good for us. It's helped us to open up new relationships as well.

    我們的食品業務不僅表明了客戶對所需產品價值的追求,也表明了交易量的強勁增長,這在很大程度上是由於一些公司放棄了產品或訂單簿空間,以及曾經出售給這些公司(這些公司已經倒閉或進行了合併)的消費品訂單簿。這對我們來說非常有利。它也幫助我們建立了新的關係。

  • You would think our size and scale that we know everyone, and that's really not true. We still have opportunities to work more directly with various vendors even in the CPG space, and we've been able to open up some new relationships. Over the past year that have been very meaningful for us. And it's meaning that customer need to buy -- to get extreme value in product that they need.

    你可能會認為以我們的規模和實力,我們應該認識所有人,但事實並非如此。即使在消費品領域,我們仍然有機會與各種供應商進行更直接的合作,並且我們已經建立了一些新的合作關係。過去的一年對我們來說意義非凡。這意味著顧客需要購買—才能獲得他們所需產品的超高價值。

  • In terms of the state of the consumer, we're seeing that the strength. We're seeing strength in the higher income consumer, above $100,000 in household income, strength in upper middle, it's $65,000 and above. It's solid lower middle, and we've seen a little bit of, I don't know if it's trade out or a little bit of softness in the lower income consumer, which we could potentially attribute to the government shutdown and some of the disruption that happened as a result of that.

    就消費者狀況而言,我們看到了這種強勁勢頭。我們看到高收入消費者(家庭收入超過 10 萬美元)和中上收入消費者(家庭收入 6.5 萬美元及以上)的消費需求強勁。中低收入市場依然穩健,但我們看到,我不知道這是商品置換還是低收入消費者的需求略有疲軟,這可能與政府停擺以及由此造成的一些混亂有關。

  • But we're seeing on the whole that the strength of the upper middle- and upper-income consumer more than offsets a little bit of the weakness with that lower income consumer and that low middle has been hanging in there. And as we indicated, we've been able to attract allow more customers and convert them in the Loyalty Program as well, and we think, in part, driven by deal flow in CPG product.

    但整體而言,我們看到中上階層和高收入消費者的強勁表現,在某種程度上彌補了低收入消費者的疲軟,而中低收入消費者則一直堅守陣地。正如我們所指出的,我們已經能夠吸引更多客戶,並將他們轉化為忠誠度計劃的會員,我們認為,部分原因是消費品交易的推動。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.

    馬修‧博斯,摩根大通。

  • Matthew Boss - Analyst

    Matthew Boss - Analyst

  • Great. So could you elaborate on the components of the third quarter comp, particularly the growth in transactions maybe relative to the second quarter versus drivers of the basket decline? And just how this fits into your customer acquisition strategy?

    偉大的。那麼,您能否詳細說明第三季同店銷售額的組成,特別是交易量相對於第二季的成長情況,以及導致客單價下降的因素?這又如何融入你的客戶獲取策略?

  • And separately, could you speak to the cadence of monthly comps that you saw in the third quarter and just help define the strong start that you cited in the first quarter, maybe notably trends that you saw before and after Black Friday weekend?

    另外,您能否談談您在第三季度看到的月度同店銷售情況,並幫助我們理解您在第一季度提到的強勁開局,特別是您在黑色星期五週末前後看到的趨勢?

  • Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Matt, I'll chime in on the first part and then Eric will take the second part about the customer acquisition. We were very pleased with our comp in the third quarter, the positive 3.3% is above our guidance of the positive 3% for the entire quarter. We saw a mid-single-digit positive transaction trend, which is actually an acceleration off of Q2 when you normalize it for the incremental Ollie's Army Night event that we added during that quarter.

    Matt,我先說說第一部分,然後 Eric 會說說關於客戶獲取的第二部分。我們對第三季的業績非常滿意,成長了 3.3%,高於我們先前預測的整個季度成長 3%。我們看到交易量呈現中等個位數的正成長趨勢,考慮到我們在第二季度增加了 Ollie's Army Night 活動,這實際上是比第二季度加速成長的結果。

  • Basket was the piece that was down that was down low single digits, and that was driven by a decline in AUR that was in the high single digits. From a cadence perspective, we were pleased with the flow of the quarter. We saw a little bit of slowdown midway through the quarter. It was at a time when unseasonably warm weather and the initial government shutdown took place. So not sure how much is attributable to either component.

    籃子是跌幅最大的部分,跌幅為個位數低段,這是由於 AUR 跌幅為個位數高段所致。從節奏上看,我們對本季的進展感到滿意。本季度中期出現了一些放緩跡象。當時正值異常溫暖的天氣和政府第一次停擺時期。所以還不確定這其中有多少是這兩個因素共同作用的結果。

  • But we saw momentum return in October when the weather changed. We exited the quarter with very strong momentum. That momentum is carried into November. Quarter-to-date trends are currently running ahead of our guidance. And that AUR that was a high single-digit decline is now a positive low single-digit increase to our AUR.

    但到了十月份,隨著天氣變化,我們看到成長動能又回來了。本季末,我們保持了非常強勁的成長勢頭。這股勢頭延續到了11月。本季迄今的趨勢目前優於我們的預期。而之前接近兩位數的 AUR 下降,現在已轉為接近兩位數的正成長。

  • So all in all, between the assortment and where we're running from a momentum perspective, we feel very confident to deliver our guidance in the fourth quarter and over the year.

    總而言之,從產品組合和發展勢頭來看,我們非常有信心在第四季度和全年實現我們的業績預期。

  • Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Matt, I'll just add a little bit of color on AUR. We really don't overtly manage AUR at Ollie's. We manage price gaps. We saw an opportunity in Q3. And it speaks a little bit to Chuck's question about CPG and strength of CPG.

    Matt,我來為 AUR 添加一點色彩。在 Ollie's,我們其實並沒有公開管理 AUR。我們負責管理價格差距。我們在第三季看到了機會。這在某種程度上回答了 Chuck 關於消費品產業及其實力的問題。

  • We saw an opportunity to invest in price, especially consumables. We also had opportunities to buy some very compelling low AUR deals in Craft and Seasonal and a couple of other categories. And we took the opportunity to invest in lower AUR deals that we believe customers would respond very favorably to and they did, and that really drove our traffic over the course of Q3.

    我們看到了在價格方面進行投資的機會,尤其是在消耗品方面。我們還有機會在工藝品、季節性商品以及其他幾個類別中購買一些極具吸引力的低價商品。我們抓住機會,投資了 AUR 較低的交易,我們相信客戶會對此反應非常積極,而事實也的確如此,這在第三季度極大地推動了我們的流量。

  • It also made us a lot of friends and it helps us to win hearts and minds and helps us to win loyal customers. It will be customers for life. So we like this investment in price. We like this investment in low AUR. We're in this for the long haul in terms of customer acquisition and retention. And we were very happy with the outcome.

    它也讓我們結交了許多朋友,幫助我們贏得人心,並幫助我們贏得忠實的客戶。這將是他們的終身客戶。所以我們認為這項投資物有所值。我們喜歡這項對低AUR的投資。在客戶獲取和留存方面,我們著眼於長遠發展。我們對結果非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stephen Zarcone, Citi.

    史蒂芬‧扎爾科內,花旗集團。

  • Stephen Zarcone - Analyst

    Stephen Zarcone - Analyst

  • I wanted to follow up there. The customer acquisition trends, can you talk about the growth you're seeing with new customers and then overall customer retention? And then as it relates to the Ollie's Army Night in December, how is your planning for that event changed at all based on the learnings from adding an additional night in June this year?

    我想就此進行後續調查。在客戶獲取趨勢方面,您能否談談新客戶成長情況以及整體客戶留存情況?那麼,關於 12 月的 Ollie's Army Night 活動,根據今年 6 月增加一個晚上的經驗,你們對該活動的計劃做了哪些改變?

  • Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Thanks, Steve. In terms of customer acquisition, very happy, one of the strongest from an acquisition standpoint, we've ever experienced as a company. Our retention is also very good. customer reactivations are also strong.

    當然。謝謝你,史蒂夫。就客戶獲取而言,我們非常滿意,這是我們公司經歷過的最強勁的客戶獲取之一。我們的客戶留存率也非常好,客戶啟動率也很高。

  • So we're hitting on all cylinders in terms of all these Army -- acquisition remains a key focus. It's product newness, brands, new brands, great pricing, the investing in price that we've done and improved store experience. The digital marketing, we believe also is helping to drive a new customer into our stores. We're seeing in terms of the makeup of new customers that were acquired to the Army.

    所以,我們在陸軍的各個方面都進展順利——採購仍然是重點。是產品的新穎性、品牌、新品牌、優惠的價格、我們對價格的投入、改進的門市體驗。我們相信,數位行銷也有助於吸引新顧客光臨我們的門市。我們正在觀察陸軍新客戶的組成。

  • We're seeing a younger customer. Our strongest cohort was 18 to 34 years old, which was -- which really blew us away, is typically -- it's more in the mid-30s to mid-40s. That was our second strongest cohort from an acquisition standpoint. It was 35 to 44. I did from an income standpoint, I commented a little bit when Matt asked his question, but upper middle and higher income were the strongest in terms of acquisition of the Army.

    我們發現顧客群越來越年輕化。我們最優秀的群體年齡在 18 至 34 歲之間,這真的讓我們大吃一驚,因為通常情況下,這個群體的年齡大多在 30 多歲到 40 多歲之間。從收購角度來看,這是我們第二強的一群員工。比數是35比44。從收入的角度來看,我的確這麼說過。當 Matt 問他這個問題時,我稍微評論了一下,但就軍隊的招募而言,中上階層和高收入者是最有力的。

  • In terms of Ollie's Army Night, I kind of made the comment on the call about our learning from the summer event we had such an enthusiastic response from customers about the earlier start time of the event. If you remember, we started our we started the event at 5:00 PM. So we made an adjustment given the time of the year and the weather in a lot of places to start this event at 4:00 PM.

    關於 Ollie's Army Night,我在電話會議上提到了我們從夏季活動中學到的經驗,顧客們對活動提前開始時間給予了非常熱烈的回饋。如果你還記得的話,我們的活動是在下午 5:00 開始的。考慮到季節和許多地方的天氣狀況,我們調整了活動開始時間,改為下午 4:00 開始。

  • The event is actually one hour longer runs until 9:00 PM. Many of the customers that commented favorably about the earlier start time in June were older customers, the kind of customers like the dinner 5:30 PM and watch Jeopardy at 7:00 PM. That's a shout out to my 84-year-old dad because that's him, but he -- that's the customer that appreciates the earlier start time.

    活動實際時間延長一小時,持續到晚上9點。6 月對提前開門營業時間表示讚賞的顧客中,有很多是年紀較大的顧客,他們喜歡下午 5:30 吃晚餐,晚上 7:00 看《危險邊緣》節目。我要特別感謝我 84 歲的父親,因為他就是這樣的人,但他——他就是這樣一位欣賞提前開始服務的顧客。

  • In terms of how we're thinking about it, we're not actually thinking about the outcome any differently. Currently, it's all accounted for in our guidance. And so we're not banking on any significant incremental contribution from the day itself.

    就我們思考這個問題的方式而言,我們實際上並沒有對結果有不同的看法。目前,這些內容都已在我們的指導方針中有所體現。因此,我們並不指望當天能帶來任何顯著的增量貢獻。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brad Thomas, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    Brad Thomas,KeyBanc Capital Markets。

  • Bradley Thomas - Analyst

    Bradley Thomas - Analyst

  • You did a nice job here of driving leverage even with such a large increase in stores here this quarter. I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about some of the levers that you're pulling in SG&A and perhaps an early look at how to think about that into next year?

    即使本季門市數量大幅增加,你們仍然很好地發揮了槓桿作用。希望您能再詳細談談您在銷售、一般及行政費用方面採取的一些措施,以及或許可以提前展望一下明年該如何應對?

  • Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. I'll take that question. It's Rob. We have an incredible whitespace opportunity ahead. We have a predictable, affordable and profitable model that's unlike anything else in the marketplace.

    當然。我來回答這個問題。是羅布。我們面前存在著巨大的市場空白機會。我們擁有可預測、價格合理且獲利的商業模式,這在市場上是獨一無二的。

  • The model itself generates an incredible amount of free cash flow. And it's a unique operating model that can be scaled over time. Our focus is really positioning the business not for next year, but for the next 5 to 10 years to deliver consistent sales and earnings growth over time. But to your point, we're also focused on delivering near-term results.

    該模型本身可以產生驚人的自由現金流。而且這是一種獨特的營運模式,可以隨著時間的推移而擴展。我們的重點是真正著眼於未來 5 到 10 年,而不是明年,以實現銷售額和利潤的持續成長。但正如您所說,我們也專注於取得近期成果。

  • Thinking ahead to 2026, we anticipate benefiting from the full year annualization of the step change in the new stores that we opened. We'd expect to benefit from a favorable real estate environment, setting up another year of strong and elevated growth.Our new store openings being front loaded for next year is also positive. And we also should have the roll-off of the dark rent that we incurred for the Big Lots locations that we acquired.

    展望 2026 年,我們預計我們將受益於新開店帶來的階躍式變化在全年的年度化影響。我們預計將受益於有利的房地產環境,從而為明年的強勁成長奠定基礎。此外,我們新店的開幕計畫集中在明年年初也是一個利好因素。此外,我們也應該收回先前收購的 Big Lots 門市所產生的暗租費用。

  • At the same time, we're going to continue to reinvest in the business to support growth and do face some cost pressures like medical, which are still remain at elevated levels. But what that means for earnings in 2026 is we will be able to leverage this business, leverage the SG&A, assuming no radical changes in the environment and drive double-digit top line growth with mid-teens bottom line growth.

    同時,我們將繼續對業務進行再投資以支持成長,並且確實面臨一些成本壓力,例如醫療成本,這些成本仍然處於高位。但這意味著,在 2026 年,我們將能夠利用這項業務,利用銷售、一般及行政費用,假設環境沒有發生根本性變化,並推動兩位數的營收成長和兩位數的淨利潤成長。

  • Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Maybe I'd just comment on the marketing aspect of it because that was the highlight from Q3. As we move forward, I commented in the script a bit that the business has so much potential that Digital has the ability to reshape how we reach and engage (technical difficulty) --

    我或許應該就行銷方面發表一些評論,因為那是第三季的亮點。隨著我們不斷前進,我在腳本中也略微提到,這項業務潛力巨大,數位化有能力重塑我們觸達和吸引客戶的方式。(技術難題)——

  • Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • But what I would say broadly about gross margin, is we manage this business, as Eric said, to price gaps to the fancy stores. Our price gaps have expanded at a time that we've also expanded margins. So that feels quite good. But we do have a flexible volume model where if we can't be the lowest price in the market, and we can't have that wide of price gap, we simply won't buy the item and we'll move on to the next item.

    但就毛利率而言,我想概括地說的是,正如艾瑞克所說,我們經營這項業務的目的是為了縮小與高檔商店的價格差距。在擴大利潤率的同時,我們的價格差距也擴大了。感覺真不錯。但我們確實有一個靈活的銷售模式,如果我們無法做到市場上價格最低,也無法維持那麼大的價格差距,我們乾脆就不會購買該商品,而是轉向下一個商品。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lorraine Hutchinson, Bank of America.

    洛琳‧哈欽森,美國銀行。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • This is [Mary Smart] on for Lorraine. Could you talk a little bit about what you're seeing from your new stores? Are they still performing ahead of expectations particularly those in bankruptcy locations? And then also you talked a little bit in the past about making changes to more of a soft opening versus a grand opening, especially for the new stores and bankruptcy locations. Is there any update on how the soft openings are going? And is that a strategy that you expect to continue to employ moving forward?

    這裡是瑪麗‧史瑪特,為您帶來洛林的報道。您能否談談您從新店觀察到的情況?它們的業績是否仍超乎預期,尤其是在破產地區?而且您之前也談到要改變經營方式,採用試營業而不是盛大開業,特別是對於新店和破產清算後的店鋪。試營運進度如何?有什麼最新消息嗎?您是否計劃在未來繼續採用這種策略?

  • Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. This is Rob. I'll take this question. New store performance has been extremely strong. We've essentially be planned across 85% of the stores that we've opened this year. So we're very pleased with that.

    當然。這是羅布。我來回答這個問題。新店業績表現非常強勁。我們今年新開店中,基本上有 85% 都已製定了計劃。我們對此非常滿意。

  • With respect to the reverse waterfall that we've had historically, we are now getting our first look at the comping stores when we really started that exercise of soft opening versus grand opening with the 99 Cents Only Stores in fall 2024. So far, we're seeing in results is that the reverse waterfall has flattened quite a bit. So the second year typically in our model was a comp decline and we're seeing that second year for those 99 Cents Only Stores, certainly being much flatter, which bodes for a flatter comp in years three and four as well.

    就我們歷史上一直採用的反向瀑布式銷售模式而言,我們現在第一次看到了對比商店的情況,因為我們在 2024 年秋季真正開始嘗試試營業與盛大開業相結合的方式,推出了 99 美分商店。到目前為止,我們從結果中看到的是,反向瀑布圖已經趨於平緩。因此,根據我們的模型,第二年通常是同店銷售額下降的一年,而我們看到,99美分商店的第二年銷售額確實趨於平穩,這預示著第三年和第四年的同店銷售額也將趨於平穩。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Ciccarelli, Truist.

    Scott Ciccarelli,Truist。

  • Josh Young - Analyst

    Josh Young - Analyst

  • This is Josh Young on for Scott. So can you just give us an update on the performance you're seeing from your stores that are in similar markets that have been now closed Big Lot locations? And then as we think about new stores and you've kind of accelerated the pace of openings here, there been any operational stresses you've had to work through or that might be supply chain or labor? Anything to call out there?

    這是喬許楊替斯科特解說。能否請您介紹一下,在類似市場(這些市場先前已被Big Lot門市關閉)中,您的門市目前的業績情況如何?那麼,當我們考慮開設新店,並且你們加快了新店開業的速度時,你們是否遇到過任何營運方面的壓力,例如供應鏈或勞動力方面的問題?有什麼要說的嗎?

  • Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure. I'll take the first part with Big Lots. I think Eric can take the second part with the operations. We're excited about the performance we're seeing where the bigs have closed. These stores continue to outperform the rest of the chain.

    當然。我先從Big Lots那邊開始。我認為埃里克可以負責手術的第二部分。我們對目前大牌球隊的收官表現感到興奮。這些門市的業績持續優於連鎖店的其他門市。

  • The best performers are roughly the, call it, 290 stores within 5 miles of a Big Lots closure where it has not reopened. Those stores remain to be running low single digit between low single-digit and mid-single-digit lift versus the rest of the chain. The call it, 110 locations where Big Lots closed and then variety of wholesalers reopen the stores, we're roughly seeing the same trends there, maybe a tick lower but still better performance than the balance of the chain.

    表現最好的店鋪大約是位於 Big Lots 關閉後 5 英里範圍內的 290 家,這些店鋪尚未重新開業。這些門市的銷售額與連鎖店其他門市相比,仍然只有個位數百分比的增幅,介於個位數百分比到個位數中段百分比之間。可以這樣說,在 Big Lots 關閉的 110 個地點,各種批發商重新開門營業,我們大致看到了同樣的趨勢,可能略低一些,但仍然比該連鎖店的其他部分錶現更好。

  • Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, Josh, I'll take the second part of your question. I think dovetailing on to the first part of your question. The question I asked earlier about soft openings and reverse waterfall. We went into this year not only investing in infrastructure, supply chain infrastructure, project management teams, real estate, store development, the construction teams the store leadership teams to ensure that we could grow at this accelerated pace.

    是的,喬希,我會回答你問題的第二部分。我認為這與你問題的第一部分密切相關。我之前問的關於軟啟動和反向瀑布的問題。今年,我們不僅投資於基礎設施、供應鏈基礎設施、專案管理團隊、房地產、門市開發、施工團隊和門市領導團隊,以確保我們能夠以這種加速的速度發展。

  • But we also went into this year with the soft open approach, which takes some of the stress out the process in that with the hard opening dates, you centered all of your efforts around hitting this one exact date, and it results in a lot of extraordinary what we call it Ollie's muscle through it, type moments where the teams get pushed to their limit and they become exhausted.

    但今年我們也採取了試營運的方式,減輕了開幕過程中的一些壓力。因為如果採用硬性開業日期,所有努力都會集中在實現這個確切的日期上,這會導致很多我們稱之為“奧利硬撐”的非凡時刻,團隊會被推到極限,精疲力竭。

  • We also paced our openings out over the course of the first three quarters so that we weren't opening too many stores in any given week, which allowed us to spread our resources out across the fleet. And it allowed us to successfully deliver the 86 stores.

    我們也控制了前三個季度的開業節奏,避免每週開設過多門市,這樣就可以將資源分散到各個門市。這使我們能夠成功交付86家門市。

  • We're tired. It was a tremendous effort for the team. So I'm not indifferent to what it took to accomplish this. But we went in with a plan. We executed the plan, and it worked out well successful. We're ready to do it again for 2026.

    我們累了。這對團隊來說是一項巨大的努力。所以,我並非對實現這一目標所付出的努力漠不關心。但我們事先制定了計劃。我們執行了計劃,而且非常成功。我們已經準備好在2026年再次這樣做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Anthony Chukumba, Loop Capital Markets.

    安東尼·楚昆巴 (Anthony Chukumba),Loop 資本市場。

  • Anthony Chukumba - Analyst

    Anthony Chukumba - Analyst

  • So you talked in your prepared remarks about the fact that you have this increased seasonal merchandise assortment as well as an expanded holiday gift program. If I remember correctly, last year, a lot of the holiday gifts were essentially closed out from Big Lots. But I'm assuming -- correct me if I'm wrong, but a lot of the season on the gift, it's a direct sourced from Asia. I guess, first off, let me know if that's correct or not, then then also just what are the margin implications of direct sourcing of the seasonal and the holiday gift as opposed to closeout?

    您在事先準備好的演講稿中提到,你們增加了季節性商品種類,並擴大了節日禮品計劃。如果我沒記錯的話,去年很多節日禮物基本上都是從 Big Lots 清倉甩賣的。但我假設——如果我錯了請糾正我——很多節日禮物都是直接從亞洲採購的。我想,首先請告訴我我的理解是否正確,然後,直接採購季節性和節日禮品與清倉商品相比,利潤率方面會有什麼影響?

  • Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, Anthony. The seasonal gifts or combination of direct source and close out. To your point, they tend to be a little bit more direct source, depending on the category, especially true of seasonal. We were fortunate this year to have the ability to buy closeouts and seasonal as a result of some of the retail bankruptcies in some of the store closures. So we had more closeouts as a percentage of our seasonal assortment than we typically see.

    是的,安東尼。季節性禮品或直接採購和清倉的組合。你說得對,根據類別不同,它們往往是更直接的來源,尤其是季節性產品。今年,由於一些零售商破產倒閉,我們很幸運能夠買到清倉商品和季節性商品。因此,我們當季商品中清倉商品的比例比平常高。

  • Yes, but a lot of it's direct sources. Gifts, you're remembering a specific closeout we bought last year that was kind of stocking stuffer oriented gifts. That's true. There's a combination of produce for us and closeouts in gifts -- tends to be a little bit more produced. What we're seeing with our continued increase in -- as we've accelerated our growth and our continued increase in size and scale and leverage, we were able to buy this product at even better margin. It's not a headwind.

    是的,但其中很多都是直接來源。禮物,你是不是還記得我們去年買的那批清倉大甩賣的、適合作為聖誕禮物的小玩意兒?這是真的。我們這裡有農產品和禮品清倉商品的組合──往往農產品比較多。隨著我們業務的持續成長——隨著我們業務的加速發展以及規模和槓桿作用的不斷擴大,我們能夠以更高的利潤率購買該產品。這不是逆風。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Carden, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的馬克卡登。

  • Mark Carden - Analyst

    Mark Carden - Analyst

  • So building on your marketing spend commentary, on the dollar shift from print to digital, you noted you cut on some of the post cards. How are you thinking about the traditional print flyers role going forward in your advertising strategy? And would you expect to make any incremental changes on that front in the coming quarters?

    所以,根據你對行銷支出的評論,以及從印刷品向數位媒體的資金轉移,你提到你削減了一些明信片的支出。您如何看待傳統印刷傳單在未來廣告策略中的作用?那麼,您預計在接下來的幾個季度裡,這方面會有任何逐步的改變嗎?

  • Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • We still do believe in the flyer events how we deliver the message to the customer is where we'll continue to evolve. We primarily use share mail for the print piece, but that flyer has also distributed in various digital channels, and we get a tremendous amount of engagement from those traditional channels around -- or digital channels around the -- those flyer events. So we're still flyer event-driven were less print delivered flyer event driven. We'll continue to shift dollars away from print into digital to ensure that the message gets out there to our customers, and we continue to drive these events.

    我們仍然相信傳單活動,而如何將訊息傳遞給客戶是我們將繼續發展的方向。我們主要使用郵寄方式分發印刷品,但該傳單也透過各種數位管道分發,我們從圍繞這些傳單活動的傳統管道或數位管道獲得了大量的互動。所以,我們仍然是以傳單活動為主導的,而不是以印刷傳單活動為主導的。我們將繼續把資金從印刷品轉移到數位媒體,以確保訊息能夠傳達給我們的客戶,並且我們將繼續推動這些活動。

  • We'll shift at a somewhat accelerated pace given we have a tremendous amount of data, and we've learned a lot over the last couple of years about digital, and we'll make smart decisions about ensuring that our flyers still get the exposure, but we're using a more form of media that's going to reach more people long term. I call print, especially for shared mail, it's the kind of the inevitable decline of print media, like ultimately, it's declining whether we like it or not. So we need to get -- make sure we stay ahead of that.

    鑑於我們擁有大量數據,並且過去幾年我們在數位化方面學到了很多,我們將以稍快的速度進行轉型,我們將做出明智的決定,確保我們的傳單仍然能夠獲得曝光,但我們正在使用一種能夠長期覆蓋更多人群的媒體形式。我認為印刷品,尤其是共享郵件,是印刷媒體不可避免的衰落,就像最終,無論我們喜歡與否,它都在衰落一樣。所以我們需要確保我們始終領先一步。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley.

    (操作說明)西蒙古特曼,摩根士丹利。

  • Lauren Ng - Analyst

    Lauren Ng - Analyst

  • This is Lauren Ng on for Simeon. First, can you maybe walk through your expectations for the Q4 comp? You mentioned quarter-to-date trends are currently ahead of the guide. So maybe how should we think about this in the context of Q4 and maybe what's driving your expectations for this acceleration?

    這是Lauren Ng代表Simeon發來的報告。首先,您能否談談您對第四季業績的預期?您提到本季至今的趨勢目前領先於指導方針。那麼,我們該如何從第四季的角度來思考這個問題呢?又是什麼因素推動了您對這種加速成長的預期?

  • And then quickly, just following up on gross margins, are you able to help us size the impact of the tariff-related expenses on the Q3? And it looks like the Q4 gross margin contracts pretty meaningfully year-over-year. Is this primarily driven by the tariff impacts?

    然後,關於毛利率,您能否幫我們估算一下關稅相關費用對第三季的影響?而且看起來第四季的毛利率比去年同期大幅下降。這主要是關稅影響造成的嗎?

  • Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Well, I'll try to address that question, but I think it was six-parts. So if I forget part, let me know. From a comp perspective, I just want to clarify, we did not say that comps need to accelerate and meet the guidance. We said that comps are currently running ahead of our guidance quarter-to-date. What gives us confidence in delivering that for the balance of the quarter is our strength in our transaction trends, which we've seen in the mid-single digits, pretty much for all of the year this year, as well as the complexion step change in our AUR, which is now positive low single digits versus a negative high single digits in the third quarter.

    嗯,我會盡量回答這個問題,但我認為它分為六個部分。如果我漏掉了什麼,請告訴我。從比較的角度來看,我只想澄清一下,我們並沒有說比較數據需要加速成長並達到預期目標。我們曾表示,本季迄今為止,同店銷售額已超過我們的預期。我們有信心在本季度剩餘時間內實現這一目標,這得益於我們強勁的交易趨勢,今年以來我們的交易量幾乎一直保持在個位數中段水平,以及我們平均使用率的顯著改善,目前已從第三季度的個位數負值轉變為個位數低值。

  • In terms of gross margin for fourth quarter, we'd always plan the gross margin to be in the mid-39% range. That's kind of how we think about the fourth quarter historically. We do have a number of tailwinds this year in gross margin that I outlined between lower markdown rates, benefits from shrink, our ability to follow other retailers with price gaps and take price on tariff-impacted products.

    就第四季的毛利率而言,我們通常會將毛利率計劃在 39% 左右。從歷史上看,我們通常就是這樣看待第四季的。今年我們在毛利率方面確實有一些利好因素,正如我之前提到的,包括較低的降價率、損耗帶來的好處、我們能夠跟隨其他零售商的價格差距以及對受關稅影響的產品進行定價。

  • So all in all, we feel good in delivering the fourth quarter gross margin. We were just always going to be conservative so that we position our guidance that we can deliver to our shareholders, but we can also take the necessary actions that we need to, to manage our business and deliver to our customers.

    總而言之,我們對第四季的毛利率表現感到滿意。我們一直打算採取保守的做法,這樣我們才能給出既能滿足股東期望又能採取必要措施來管理業務並為客戶提供服務的業績指引。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ed Kelly, Wells Fargo.

    艾德凱利,富國銀行。

  • Edward Kelly - Senior Analyst

    Edward Kelly - Senior Analyst

  • I was curious as to maybe just some early thoughts on the 2026 comp build. And I'm kind of thinking about it in the context of the big tailwind, which obviously you are benefiting from or taking advantage of that for some stores, does that normalize next year?

    我很好奇大家對 2026 年的競賽配置有什麼初步想法。我正在考慮目前這種強勁的順風形勢,顯然你們的一些商店正在從中受益或利用這種順風,這種情況明年會恢復正常嗎?

  • Then as we think about the Big Lot, the store openings from this year, which many of them were Big Lots conversions, do they act like the 99 Cents Only Stores, meaning flattish or low-ish comp in year 1? And then when you pull all that together, does that basically kind of mean that the highest probability outcome or way to start would be your traditional sort of like 1% to 2% comp guide? And then how do you think about like opportunities associated with that? Obviously, there's some fiscal stuff coming next year with tax cuts. And I'm curious as to how you think that might play out for you?

    那麼,當我們考慮 Big Lot 時,今年新開的門市(其中很多都是 Big Lot 改造的)是否像 99 美分商店一樣,第一年業績持平或偏低呢?那麼,當你把所有這些因素綜合起來考慮時,這是否意味著機率最高的方案或起點就是傳統的 1% 到 2% 的佣金指導呢?那麼,你如何看待與此相關的機會呢?顯然,明年會有一些財政方面的政策出台,包括減稅。我很想知道你覺得這件事對你來說會有什麼結果?

  • Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • This is Rob. I'll take that question. So listening to your question and you answered it for me with a positive 1% to 2%. I was giggling a little bit when I was thinking about it. So from a comp guidance perspective for next year, we'll likely stay on algo.

    這是羅布。我來回答這個問題。聽完你的問題,你回答說有 1% 到 2% 的可能性。我想到這件事的時候忍不住笑了出來。因此,從明年的業績預期來看,我們可能會繼續採用演算法交易。

  • We like the beauty of the algo, it's how we manage our business, that's how we set our cost structure each year. But it's not lost on us that there are tailwinds, potential tailwinds to the comp guidance for next year.

    我們喜歡演算法的精妙之處,我們用演算法來管理業務,每年也用演算法設定成本結構。但我們也意​​識到,明年的業績預期存在一些利多因素,潛在的利多因素。

  • I think the potential for elevated tax money in the first half of the year is certainly a piece of it. Big Lots market share capture should be the gift that keeps giving. And we'd expect for that to be a multiyear share capture. AUR which was a drag this year, potentially, we don't see those types of drags from year to year. So I think all in all, there's a number of factors to be positive about next year's comp guidance.

    我認為今年上半年稅收增加的可能性肯定是其中一個原因。Big Lots 市場份額的提升應該會帶來持續的收益。我們預計這將是一個多年才能實現的市場份額獲取過程。今年的AUR表現不佳,這可能是一個問題,但我們通常不會每年都看到這種類型的下滑。所以總的來說,我認為有很多因素會讓明年的業績預期趨於樂觀。

  • Well, like you said in your question, we'll reset in the positive 1% to 2% and then we'll seek to deliver from there. And you know what we say, we don't turn the registers off.

    就像你在問題中提到的那樣,我們會將目標調整到正的 1% 到 2%,然後努力在此基礎上實現目標。你知道我們怎麼說嗎?我們不會關掉收銀機。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kate McShane, Goldman Sachs.

    Kate McShane,高盛集團。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • This is [Grace Cheon] on for Kate McShane. For the 2026 pipeline of 75 stores, could you maybe expand more on the drivers behind this? And any color on the new store pipeline, like maybe anything you're doing differently? And what are you seeing in the real estate environment and unit growth longer term?

    這位是格蕾絲·千(Grace Cheon),她代替凱特·麥克沙恩(Kate McShane)上台。對於 2026 年計劃開設的 75 家門市,您能否詳細說明背後的驅動因素?關於新店開幕計劃,有沒有特別的進展,例如你們在哪些方面做了一些改變?您認為房地產市場環境和長期單位成長情況如何?

  • Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Yes, we are guiding to 75 stores. Opening new stores remains our highest, the best use of capital and the investments that we made in accelerating growth really paid off. We're pleased with how we executed getting to the 86 stores this year, and the front-loading that we've been able to achieve of getting all the stores opened by into Q3, opening on budget, outperforming projections, et cetera. When we look at the environment moving into 2026 there's enough real estate to fuel growth.

    當然。是的,我們計劃開設75家門市。開設新店仍然是我們最高效、最有效的資本利用方式,我們在加速成長方面所做的投資也確實獲得了回報。我們對今年開設 86 家門市的進度感到滿意,並且我們成功地在第三季度前完成了所有門市的開業,所有門市均按預算開業,業績超出預期等等。展望2026年,我們可以看到足夠的房地產資源可以促進成長。

  • The 75 is already set. We have -- we had deals most leases signed. There's still vacancy out there from all of the distressed retailers and bankrupt retailers that have gone out, including a disproportionate number of Big Lots vacancies that weren't available or were available to purchase, but not purchased as part of the bankruptcy auction process that were then available for us to pick up on the open market.

    75這個數字已經定好了。我們已經—我們已經簽下了大部分租賃合約。由於許多陷入困境的零售商和破產零售商倒閉,市場上仍然存在大量空置店鋪,其中包括大量 Big Lots 的空置店鋪。這些店舖要么無法購買,要么可以購買,但並未在破產拍賣過程中被購買,因此我們可以在公開市場上購買。

  • So a disproportionate number of the 75 are Big Lot stores, which we like a lot because those Big Lot stores, what we call warm boxes because they have a discount customer who was just shopping in that store literally five minutes ago. We reopen as an Ollie's. We've seen a lot of success over the past year with those stores.

    因此,在這 75 家門市中,Big Lot 門市的比例過高,我們很喜歡這種門市,因為這些 Big Lot 門市,我們稱之為“暖箱”,因為它們裡面有折扣顧客,而這些顧客可能五分鐘前才剛在店裡購物。我們重新開業,改名為 Ollie's。過去一年,這些門市取得了巨大的成功。

  • So we feel very good about the 75, and we'll continue to evaluate based on opportunities that are in the market and not thinking to extend past 75. We feel like it's the right number at this point when we balance our accelerated growth with other strategic priorities that we have in place for 2026. That's a very respectful number of 75.

    因此,我們對 75 這個價位非常滿意,我們將繼續根據市場上的機會進行評估,目前不考慮將價位提高到 75 以上。我們認為,在平衡加速成長與我們為 2026 年制定的其他策略重點時,目前這個數字是合適的。75,這是一個非常令人尊敬的數字。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeremy Hamblin, Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

    傑里米·漢布林,克雷格-哈勒姆資本集團。

  • Jeremy Hamblin - Senior Research Analyst

    Jeremy Hamblin - Senior Research Analyst

  • I wanted to just come back to the unit openings and get a sense, Rob, for what you're expecting in terms of preopening expense next year given kind of the impacts of dark rent this year and the timing that you're suggesting with a bit more in the front half of the year than the back half of the year? That's kind of part one.

    我想回到單元開業的話題,羅布,考慮到今年的空置租金的影響,以及你建議的開業時間安排(上半年比下半年多一些),你預計明年開業前的支出會是多少?那算是第一部分吧。

  • And then two is, just in terms of the DC expansions, that you're looking at and looking at the Illinois facility next year, what type of impact do you see on margins, if any, related to those efforts?

    其次,就您正在關注的華盛頓特區擴張以及明年伊利諾伊州工廠的建設而言,您認為這些舉措會對利潤率產生什麼影響(如果有的話)?

  • Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Robert Helm - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I'll take both of those actually. So from a preopening perspective, I think the easiest way to think about it was -- we had $5 million of Big Lots dark rent in this year when we acquired those stores, we're on the clock immediately -- and so you subtract that out -- and then flex the preopening expense for the number of unit openings between the 86 and the 75 and you should be able to get reasonably close to where we're going to land the '26 guidance.

    這兩個我都要。所以從開業前的角度來看,我認為最簡單的理解方式是——我們今年收購這些門市時,需要支付 500 萬美元的 Big Lots 門市空置租金,我們立即面臨時間壓力——所以你要把這筆費用減去——然後根據 86 家門市到 75 家門市之間的開業前費用進行調整,你應該要比較我們 2026 年的業績。

  • From a margin perspective, on the expansion, back in the day when we were opening distribution centers, and we were smaller with less of a sales base with a little bit more of an impact gross margin in terms of drag when we either open a new distribution center or expanded distribution center. Now, that the Yes. The shift has gotten so big. We'd expect a nominal impact and would anticipate that we would be able to fully offset that (technical difficulty) to our guidance.

    從利潤率的角度來看,在擴張方面,以前我們開設配送中心的時候,規模較小,銷售基礎也較小,所以開設新的配送中心或擴建配送中心都會對毛利率造成更大的拖累。現在,是的。這種轉變已經變得如此巨大。我們預期影響甚微,並預期能夠完全抵銷(技術困難)對我們的業績指引的影響。

  • Jeremy Hamblin - Senior Research Analyst

    Jeremy Hamblin - Senior Research Analyst

  • If I could just one follow-up here on tariffs as well. As we look ahead to next year with the China tariffs being pulled down here by 10 percentage points. Would you expect, as we look at kind of holiday season impacts around gross (inaudible) margins to be a bit lower next year, if nothing else changes on policy front.

    我能否再補充一點關於關稅的問題?展望明年,中國對我國的關稅將調降 10 個百分點。如果政策方面沒有其他變化,您是否預計明年假期季節對毛利率的影響會略有下降?

  • Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Eric van der Valk - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think, Jeremy, just consider we manage our price gaps. We're a fast follower in terms of price, and the whole world is experiencing the same impact of tariffs, 10% less across (technical difficulty). It's the same. So if they invest in price, adjust their price, lower the price, increase their price, or whichever direction the tariffs may move because there's still a little uncertainty around at this point as well. Then (technical difficulty).

    傑里米,我覺得我們應該考慮如何控制價格差距。我們在價格方面反應迅速,而且全世界都受到了關稅的影響,降幅達10%。(技術難題)是一樣的。所以,如果他們投資於價格,他們會調整價格,降低價格,提高價格,或根據關稅的走向做出相應的調整,因為目前仍存在一些不確定性。然後(技術難題)

  • We're a fast follower. We're adjusting price, ensuring that we are maintaining our price gaps. So a long way of saying that I would expect if tariffs go down, eventually the markets adjust (inaudible) price coming down some, we're coming down some to maintain our price gap -- not expecting it to be some sort of unexpected positive win from a gross margin standpoint in the same way that it wasn't a negative for us as tariffs were increased.

    我們反應迅速。我們正在調整價格,以確保保持價格差距。所以,我的意思是,如果關稅下降,市場最終會調整(聽不清楚),價格也會有所下降,我們也會下降一些價格來維持我們的價格差距——我並不指望從毛利率的角度來看,這會像關稅上漲時沒有給我們帶來負面影響那樣,帶來某種意想不到的正面收益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes today's call. Thank you for participating. You may all now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在你們都可以斷開連結了。