O-I Glass Inc (OI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello and welcome to today's O-I Glass full year and fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. My name is Bailey, and I will be the moderator for today. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to pass the conference over to Chris Manuel, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead when you're ready.

您好，歡迎參加今天的 O-I Glass 2024 年全年和第四季財報電話會議。我叫貝利，今天我將擔任主持人。（操作員指示）現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁克里斯·曼努埃爾 (Chris Manuel)。準備好後請繼續。

Thank you, Bailey and welcome everyone to the O-I Glass full year and fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. Our discussion today will be led by our CEO, Gordon Hardie and our CFO, John Haudrich. Following prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A session. Presentation materials for this call are available on the company's website. Please review the safe harbor comments and the disclosure of our use of non-GAAP financial measures included in those materials.

謝謝貝利，歡迎大家參加 O-I Glass 2024 年全年及第四季財報電話會議。今天的討論將由我們的執行長 Gordon Hardie 和財務長 John Haudrich 主持。在準備好的發言之後，我們將舉辦問答環節。本次電話會議的簡報資料可在公司網站上取得。請查看這些資料中包含的安全港評論和我們使用非公認會計準則財務指標的揭露。

Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Gordon who will begin on slide 3.

現在，我想將電話轉給 Gordon，他從幻燈片 3 開始發言。

Thanks, Chris, good morning, everyone and thank you for your interest in O-I Glass. Today, we will walk you through our 2024 performance, our recent market trends and our strategic initiatives which we believe will drive solid recovery this year. But first, I would like to take the opportunity to thank all my colleagues at O-I across the world for their efforts in 2024 and for their agility and focus in driving the changes needed to turn O-I around.

謝謝，克里斯，大家早安，謝謝你們對 O-I Glass 的關注。今天，我們將向您介紹我們 2024 年的業績、近期的市場趨勢以及我們相信將推動今年穩健復甦的策略性舉措。但首先，我想藉此機會感謝世界各地的 O-I 所有同事在 2024 年的努力，以及他們在推動扭轉 O-I 所需變革方面的敏捷性和專注力。

2024 was a challenging year for O-I. A sluggish market demand and macro conditions impacted our performance. Full year adjusted earnings were $0.81 per share, slightly exceeding our most recent guidance range but down from historically high performance in 2023. For the fourth quarter, we reported an adjusted loss of $0.05 per share compared to the adjusted earnings of $0.12 per share in the same period last year.

2024 年對 O-I 來說是充滿挑戰的一年。市場需求低迷和宏觀條件影響了我們的業績。全年調整後每股收益為 0.81 美元，略高於我們最近的指導範圍，但低於 2023 年的歷史最高業績。第四季度，我們報告調整後每股虧損 0.05 美元，而去年同期調整後每股收益為 0.12 美元。

These results reflected tough market conditions with sluggish demand, high in-home spirits inventories, especially in the US, overcapacity in certain European markets impacting net price. We also took aggressive inventory management actions in the second half of the year.

這些結果反映了嚴峻的市場條件：需求低迷，自產烈酒庫存高企（尤其是在美國），某些歐洲市場的產能過剩影響了淨價格。我們還在下半年採取了積極的庫存管理措施。

While market conditions remain soft, demand has stabilized in recent months. And our fourth quarter costs and operating performance were better than anticipated, reflecting actions taken. This stabilization gives us confidence as we move forward. We are rapidly implementing our Fit to Win way of working, which is designed to improve our overall competitiveness by reducing our total cost of doing business which will enable future sustainable growth. We believe these actions and the way of operating will significantly improve future earnings and cash flow.

儘管市場狀況依然疲軟，但近幾個月需求已趨於穩定。我們第四季的成本和營運表現優於預期，反映了我們所採取的行動。這種穩定給予我們前進的信心。我們正在迅速實施「適合取勝」的工作方式，旨在透過降低我們的整體經營成本來提高我們的整體競爭力，從而實現未來的永續成長。我們相信這些措施和經營方式將顯著改善未來的獲利和現金流。

While our commercial outlook remains cautious until macroeconomic conditions improve and consumer confidence increases, we expect solid earnings improvement in 2025. Driven by the benefits of our strategic initiatives. Specifically, we anticipate 2025 adjusted EPS to be in the range of $120 million to $150 million per share, representing a 50% to 85% increase from 2024 levels. Additionally, we expect free cash flow will be between $150 million $200 million, a substantial improvement from previous year's cash use. Now I will turn over to John to provide a review of the 2024 results.

在宏觀經濟狀況改善和消費者信心增強之前，我們對商業前景仍保持謹慎，但我們預計 2025 年獲利將穩步改善。受我們策略性舉措效益的推動。具體而言，我們預計 2025 年調整後每股盈餘將在 1.2 億美元至 1.5 億美元之間，較 2024 年的水準成長 50% 至 85%。此外，我們預計自由現金流將在 1.5 億美元至 2 億美元之間，比去年的現金使用情況大幅改善。現在我將請約翰對 2024 年的結果進行回顧。

Thanks, Gordon and good morning, everyone. As mentioned, 2024 was a tough year that impacted most of our key performance measures as you can see on the chart. Yet, it was also a year marked by critical decisions and decisive actions to set the business up for future performance improvement and value creation.

謝謝，戈登，大家早安。如上所述，2024 年是艱難的一年，影響了我們的大多數關鍵績效指標，如圖表所示。然而，這也是一個充滿關鍵決策和果斷行動的一年，為企業未來的績效改善和價值創造奠定了基礎。

Net sales were down from the prior year due to a 2% decline in selling prices and 4% lower sales volume reflecting the market factors Gordon discussed. Adjusted EBITDA was also lower given market headwinds which led to additional temporary production curtailment in 2024 to align supply with softer demand and reduce our inventory levels in the second half of the year. The impact of curtailment was partially offset by lower corporate retained expense.

由於銷售價格下降 2% 且銷售量下降 4%，淨銷售額較上年有所下降，這反映了 Gordon 所討論的市場因素。由於市場逆風導致 2024 年額外臨時減產，以使供應與疲軟的需求保持一致並降低下半年的庫存水平，調整後的 EBITDA 也有所下降。削減的影響被企業留存費用的降低部分抵銷。

Higher interest expense and tax rate also weighed on our full year EPS. However, adjusted earnings of $0.81 per share was slightly higher than our most recent guidance thanks to better operating and cost performance later in the year. Free cash flow was a $128 million use of cash, reflecting lower earnings along with elevated restructuring interest and tax payments. However, free cash flow was slightly favorable to our guidance range due to good working capital management despite CapEx being above guidance.

更高的利息支出和稅率也對我們的全年每股收益造成壓力。然而，由於今年後期營運和成本表現更好，調整後每股收益為 0.81 美元，略高於我們最近的預期。自由現金流為1.28億美元的現金使用，反映出收益下降以及重組利息和稅金增加。不過，儘管資本支出高於預期，但由於良好的營運資本管理，自由現金流略高於我們的預期範圍。

We were able to accelerate some inflight capital projects, what set the stage for substantially lower CapEx spending in 2025 which we review a bit later. While debt remained fairly stable, the leverage ratio increased to 3.9 times reflecting lower adjusted EBITDA.

我們能夠加速一些正在進行的資本項目，這為 2025 年大幅降低資本支出奠定了基礎，我們稍後會進行回顧。雖然債務保持相當穩定，但槓桿率上升至 3.9 倍，反映出調整後的 EBITDA 下降。

Finally, our economic spread was WACC minus 2% versus plus 2% in 2023 which was in line with our previous communications and reflected softer earnings. The appendix includes more information on 2024 trends. We expect most of our key performance measures to improve significantly in 2025 as we implement our strategic initiatives.

最後，我們的經濟利差為 WACC 負 2%，而 2023 年為正 2%，這與我們先前的訊息一致，並反映了較弱的收益。附錄包含有關 2024 年趨勢的更多資訊。我們預計，隨著我們實施策略性舉措，我們的大多數關鍵績效指標將在 2025 年顯著改善。

Let's review our fourth quarter 2024 performance on page 5. O-I reported an adjusted loss of $0.05 per share in the fourth quarter down from adjusted earnings of $0.12 in the same period last year. Net price was a headwind although much less so than the third quarter and global sales volume was about flat as anticipated. Commercial headwinds were mostly offset by lower operating and corporate costs thanks to early benefits from our cost reduction efforts.

讓我們在第 5 頁回顧一下 2024 年第四季的表現。O-I 公佈第四季度調整後每股虧損 0.05 美元，低於去年同期調整後每股收益 0.12 美元。淨價格是一個阻力，儘管這比第三季的阻力小得多，但全球銷售量與預期基本持平。由於我們早期的成本削減努力帶來的效益，商業逆風大部分被較低的營運和企業成本所抵銷。

Consistent with the prior year, we temporarily curtailed about 17% of capacity in the fourth quarter to align supply with lower demand and rebalance inventories. Lower earnings also reflected an elevated tax rate due to a shift in regional earnings mix and minimum withholding tax requirements.

與去年同期一致，我們在第四季度暫時削減了約 17% 的產能，以使供應與較低的需求保持一致，並重新平衡庫存。由於地區收入結構和最低預扣稅要求的變化，較低的收入也反映了稅率的提高。

Let's shift a segment profit as illustrated on the right. Segment operating profit in the Americas was $96 million compared to $93 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Earnings benefited from a 5% growth in sales volume and lower operating costs which was partially offset by unfavorable net price. Segment operating profit in Europe was $40 million down from $75 million in the fourth quarter 2023. This decline was due to unfavorable net price, a 5% decrease in sales volume while operating costs were modestly favorable.

讓我們轉移一個分部利潤，如右圖所示。美洲地區分部營業利潤為 9,600 萬美元，而 2023 年第四季為 9,300 萬美元。獲利受益於銷售量成長 5% 及營運成本降低，但被不利的淨價部分抵銷。歐洲分部營業利潤為 4,000 萬美元，低於 2023 年第四季的 7,500 萬美元。下降的原因是淨價格不利，銷售量下降 5%，而營運成本略有下降。

Now I'll turn it back to Gordon who will discuss market conditions on page 6.

現在我將話題轉回給 Gordon，他將在第 6 頁討論市場狀況。

Thanks, John. As illustrated on the left of the slide, our shipment trend over the past few years reflected the broader business cycle that emerged during and after the pandemic. For background, we have shown consolidated volume with and without our strategic JVs, the chart on the right illustrates our quarterly shipment patterns over the past three years.

謝謝，約翰。如幻燈片左側所示，我們過去幾年的出貨量趨勢反映了疫情期間和疫情後出現的更廣泛的商業週期。作為背景，我們展示了包括和不包括戰略合資企業的綜合銷量，右側的圖表說明了過去三年的季度出貨模式。

Challenges began to surface in late 2022. However, after several quarters of unfavorable demand trends, shipments stabilized in the latter half of 2024. Notably fourth quarter shipments remained flat compared to the previous year.

挑戰在 2022 年底開始浮現。然而，在經歷了幾個季度的不利需求趨勢之後，出貨量在 2024 年下半年趨於穩定。值得注意的是，第四季的出貨量與去年同期相比持平。

During the fourth quarter, our shipments in the Americas increased by 5% with all markets showing year over year growth. The strongest rebound was in Mexico and in Brazil. Conversely, shipments in Europe declined by approximately 5% with the beer category experiencing notable softness. Wine and spirits also remain soft in Southwest Europe.

第四季度，我們在美洲的出貨量成長了 5%，所有市場都達到年增。反彈最強勁的是墨西哥和巴西。相反，歐洲的出貨量下降了約5%，啤酒類別明顯疲軟。西南歐的葡萄酒和烈酒銷售也依然疲軟。

As we enter 2025, we continue to maintain a cautious commercial outlook. There is still some way to go to align consumer real income with the inflation experienced over the past few years and to see destocking moderate across the value chain to pre-COVID levels particularly in the spirits category. Fortunately, the year is starting off pretty well with January sales volumes up low single digit from the prior year in both Europe and the Americas, coupled with disciplined cost management.

進入2025年，我們繼續保持謹慎的商業前景。要讓消費者的實際收入與過去幾年經歷的通膨保持一致，並看到整個價值鏈的庫存去化緩和至疫情之前的水平（尤其是烈酒類別），還有一段路要走。幸運的是，今年開局不錯，1 月份歐洲和美洲的銷售量較上年同期均增長了個位數，同時成本管理也十分嚴格。

Let's now turn to page 7. While near term performance is under pressure given sluggish market conditions, we are rapidly implementing our Fit to Win priorities to boost performance. As previously discussed, this program will be implemented in two phases. In Phase A, we are streamlining the organizational structure. In Phase B, we are optimizing the supply chain. Both phases will boost competitiveness to allow us to access growth.

現在我們翻到第 7 頁。儘管由於市場低迷，短期業績面臨壓力，但我們正在迅速實施「Fit to Win」優先事項以提高業績。如前所述，該計劃將分兩個階段實施。在 A 階段，我們正在精簡組織架構。在 B 階段，我們正在優化供應鏈。兩個階段都將增強競爭力，從而讓我們實現成長。

We expect Phase A will generate savings in excess of $300 million over the next three years. We are making rapid progress and have achieved $25 million of savings in the fourth quarter of 2024 and have increased our savings target to between $175 million and $200 million in 2025. We are working with urgency. During the fourth quarter, activity primarily focused on reshaping SG&A, driving productivity and reducing excess inventory.

我們預計 A 階段將在未來三年內節省超過 3 億美元。我們正在快速取得進展，並在 2024 年第四季實現了 2,500 萬美元的節約，並將 2025 年的節約目標提高到 1.75 億美元至 2 億美元之間。我們正在緊急進行工作。第四季度，活動主要集中在重塑銷售、一般及行政開支、提高生產力和減少過剩庫存。

With regard to organizational restructuring, we have made considerable progress delaying the structure shifting segment -- shifting accountability to local markets and reducing central operating costs. Completed actions should yield targeted savings of $100 million in 2025. After reducing SG&A as a percentage of sales from 9% to 8% last year, we should land between seven and 7.5% in 2025.

在組織架構調整方面，我們在延緩結構轉變環節——將責任轉移到本地市場以及降低中央營運成本方面取得了相當大的進展。已完成的行動應在 2025 年實現 1 億美元的目標節約。去年，我們將銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的比例從 9% 降至 8%，到 2025 年，這一比例應該會達到 7% 至 7.5% 之間。

More effort is underway as we aim to lower costs to less than 5% of sales on a run rate basis by 2026 representing an annualized savings of $200 million compared to 2024. As part of our initial network optimization efforts, we've either completed or announced the closure of 7% of capacity which should be finalized by mid '25.

我們正在進行更多努力，目標是到 2026 年將成本降低到按運行率計算的銷售額的 5% 以下，與 2024 年相比，每年可節省 2 億美元。作為我們初步網路優化工作的一部分，我們已經完成或宣布關閉 7% 的容量，預計在 25 年中期完成。

We continue to evaluate further opportunities to optimize the network, and we will provide an updated at I Day. As a result, we are increasing our targeted savings to between $75 million and $100 million in 2025. With regard to reducing inventory, we cut inventory by $108 million in 2024 from the prior year levels. This is -- there is more work to be done, and we expect further inventory reductions by an additional $50 million to $100 million in 2025.

我們將繼續評估進一步優化網路的機會，並將在 I Day 上提供最新資訊。因此，我們將 2025 年的目標儲蓄額提高到 7,500 萬至 1 億美元之間。在減少庫存方面，我們將在 2024 年將庫存較前一年減少 1.08 億美元。這是——還有更多工作要做，我們預計到 2025 年庫存將進一步減少 5,000 萬至 1 億美元。

As we execute Phase A, we have commenced Phase B. During this next stage of activity, we expect to generate value through total supply chain optimization by dragging productivity across the fleet closing high-cost operations and transferring profitable volume into our remaining network. Efforts will also include end-to-end supply chain, efficiencies, procurement productivity, operational improvements and more disciplined salesforce management.

在執行 A 階段的同時，我們也開始了 B 階段。這些努力還將包括端到端供應鏈、效率、採購生產力、營運改善和更規範的銷售人員管理。

The cornerstone of Phase B is our total organization effectiveness program, which aims to optimize capacity utilization and productivity across the network. We have chosen Toano, Virginia to be our first plant to go live in North America. We are very pleased by the early progress that has been achieved there thus far. These new ways of working should deliver further savings and higher margins, helping us achieve our 2027 performance targets.

B 階段的基石是我們的整體組織效能計劃，旨在優化整個網路的產能利用率和生產力。我們選擇弗吉尼亞州托亞諾作為我們在北美開設的第一家工廠。我們對迄今為止所取得的早期進展感到非常高興。這些新的工作方式應該可以帶來進一步的節省和更高的利潤，幫助我們實現 2027 年的績效目標。

They should also streamline how we work with customers and suppliers, helping both parts of the value chain to be more efficient. With regard to MAGMA. We continue to ramp up production at our first Greenfield line in Bowling Green Kentucky. The achievement of key operating and financial milestones at this side over the course of 2025 will be critical as we chart the future of the MAGMA program.

他們也應該簡化我們與客戶和供應商的合作方式，幫助價值鏈的兩個部分提高效率。關於 MAGMA。我們繼續提高位於肯塔基州鮑靈格林的第一條 Greenfield 生產線的產量。當我們規劃 MAGMA 計畫的未來時，2025 年實現關鍵營運和財務里程碑至關重要。

As we focus on these milestones at Bowling Green, we have paused the development of Generation 3. As with any capital project magma will be required to generate returns of at least WACC plus 2%. We will provide more details on our long-term strategic plan next month at our Investor Day.

當我們專注於 Bowling Green 的這些里程碑時，我們暫停了第三代產品的開發。與任何資本項目一樣，Magma 需要產生至少 WACC 加上 2% 的回報。我們將在下個月的投資者日上提供有關我們的長期策略計劃的更多細節。

Now let's move to page 8 and review our guidance for 2025. While our commercial outlook remains cautious on the macroeconomic conditions improve further and uncertainty around tariffs abates. We expect solid financial improvement in 2025 driven by the benefits of our strategic initiatives.

現在讓我們翻到第 8 頁，回顧我們對 2025 年的指導。雖然我們對商業前景仍保持謹慎，但宏觀經濟條件將進一步改善，關稅方面的不確定性也將減弱。我們預計，在策略性舉措效益的推動下，2025 年的財務狀況將穩定改善。

As previously noted, we anticipate a 50% to 85% increase in adjusted EPS driven by adjusted EBITDA of $1.15 billion to $1.2 billion, up from $1.1 billion in 2024. Sales volume is expected to be flat or down slightly. While we foresee a gradual recovery in the overall market, we may intentionally exit some unprofitable business as we optimize our network and drive higher economic profits.

如前所述，我們預計調整後每股盈餘將成長 50% 至 85%，受調整後 EBITDA 的推動，從 2024 年的 11 億美元增至 11.5 億美元至 12 億美元。預計銷售量將持平或略有下降。雖然我們預見到整體市場將逐步復甦，但在優化網路、提高經濟利潤的同時，我們可能會有意退出一些無利可圖的業務。

Net price will likely be a headwind as flat gross price is more than offset by low single digit cost inflation. While prices should rise slightly in the Americas, we anticipate pricing pressure in certain areas across Europe due to lower demand and overcapacity in certain markets. Costs should decrease across the system, reflecting our strategic initiatives as well as higher production network utilization based on current commercial assumptions.

淨價可能會成為阻力，因為平穩的總價格被低個位數的成本通膨所抵消。雖然美洲的價格應該會略有上漲，但我們預計，由於某些市場的需求較低和產能過剩，歐洲某些地區將面臨價格壓力。整個系統的成本應該會降低，這反映了我們的策略舉措以及基於當前商業假設的更高的生產網路利用率。

However, please note that currency translation would be a clear headwind assuming prevailing rates at the end of January, given a stronger dollar. Cash flow is expected to rebound to between $150 million and $200 million, reflecting higher earnings and lower CapEx as previously discussed.

然而，請注意，假設 1 月底的現行匯率以及美元走強，貨幣換算將是明顯的阻力。現金流預計將反彈至 1.5 億美元至 2 億美元之間，反映出先前討論過的更高的收益和更低的資本支出。

The outlook does embed higher restructuring costs totaling $120 million as we optimize our network and organization structure. More details are provided on the slide. Please note that this outlook does not include the potential impact of recently announced tariffs which remain uncertain at this early stage. Let's now turn to page 9.

隨著我們優化網路和組織結構，前景確實包含總計 1.2 億美元的更高重組成本。幻燈片上提供了更多詳細資訊。請注意，該展望不包括最近宣布的關稅的潛在影響，因為目前關稅在早期階段仍不確定。現在我們翻到第 9 頁。

In conclusion, 2024 presented significant challenges for O-I but also significant opportunities to initiate a program of self-help to improve the competitive position and earnings power of the business over the next three years, markets also began to stabilize in the second half of the year. Our fit to win initiative is already yielding very positive results and should drive substantial improvement in operational efficiencies and financial performance in 2025.

總而言之，2024 年對 O-I 來說既是重大挑戰，也是重要機遇，可以啟動自助計劃，以在未來三年內提高業務的競爭地位和盈利能力，市場也在下半年開始穩定。我們的「適者取勝」計畫已經取得了非常積極的成果，並將在 2025 年推動營運效率和財務績效的大幅改善。

We are implementing our value creation road map across three horizons which is illustrated on the right. We remain confident in our 2027 targets which include achieving at least $1.45 billion in sustainable EBITDA, free cash flow at least 5% of revenue and an economic spread exceeding 2% of our cost of capital.

我們正在從三個角度實施我們的價值創造路線圖，如右圖所示。我們對 2027 年的目標充滿信心，其中包括實現至少 14.5 億美元的可持續 EBITDA、至少佔收入 5% 的自由現金流和超過資本成本 2% 的經濟利差。

Our commitment to optimizing our supply chain, working with suppliers and customers, enhancing productivity and driving total enterprise costs positions us well for future success. We remain determined and dedicated to delivering value to our shareholders through disciplined execution of our business turnaround plan.

我們致力於優化供應鏈，與供應商和客戶合作，提高生產力並降低企業整體成本，為未來的成功奠定基礎。我們將繼續決心並致力於透過嚴格執行我們的業務轉型計劃為股東創造價值。

Thank you for your continued support and confidence in O-I. We look forward to a promising '25 and to your attendance at our next Investor Day on March 14 as we further outline our road map to restore value in O-I.

感謝您對 O-I 的持續支持與信任。我們期待著充滿希望的25年，並歡迎您出席我們於3月14日舉行的下一次投資者日，屆時我們將進一步概述恢復O-I價值的路線圖。

We are now ready to take your questions.

我們現在準備好回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

甘沙姆·潘賈比，貝爾德。

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Gordon, can you just expand on the comment on signs of volume stability. Which end markets have you started to see signs of early stability if you will. And also, just given the controversy around alcohol in the sort of the media crusade/narrative, just give us a sense as to how big alcohol is for you specifically. And as you kind of think about the various verticals within alcohol, what sort of trends are you seeing at this point? Thanks.

謝謝。大家早安。戈登，你能否詳細說明一下關於成交量穩定跡象的評論？如果你願意的話，哪些終端市場已經開始看到早期穩定的跡象。此外，鑑於媒體宣傳/報告中圍繞酒精的爭議，請我們了解酒精對您來說到底有多大影響。當您思考酒精產業內的各個垂直領域時，您看到目前什麼樣的趨勢？謝謝。

Yeah. In terms of alcohol in the portfolio, Ghansham, it's around 75% of the portfolio and about 25% in nonalcoholic beverages and food. In response to the first part of the question, it really is a story of two hemispheres. So in the Americas, we see volume growth, particularly in Brazil and Mexico and in Colombia. And we are starting to see early signs of growth in North America

是的。就投資組合中的酒精而言，Ghansham 表示，其投資組合中約有 75% 為酒精，約有 25% 為非酒精飲料和食品。回答問題的第一部分，這確實是兩個半球的故事。因此，在美洲，我們看到了銷量成長，特別是巴西、墨西哥和哥倫比亞。我們開始看到北美地區成長的早期跡象

Europe, we're seeing as we pointed out a 5% decline in sales and we see choppy, soft consumer demand. We also see, the impact of consumption decline in China with exports stone of things like higher end wines and cognacs and spirits to China out of Europe. So really, it's a story of two hemispheres. Growth in the Americas and then, sluggish to slight decline in Europe.

正如我們所指出的，歐洲的銷售額下降了 5%，而且消費需求不穩定、疲軟。我們也看到，中國消費量下降的影響導致歐洲向中國出口大量高端葡萄酒、白蘭地和烈酒。所以實際上，這是一個兩個半球的故事。美洲地區出現成長，而歐洲地區則出現緩慢或略有下降。

Got it. And then in terms of your confidence level as it relates to the pricing component in 2025. I know there's always uncertainty on European pricing especially this part of the year. Just in terms of the broader -- maybe some broader comments as it relates to the competitive backdrop in Europe. This year versus over the last couple of years. Thank you.

知道了。然後就您對 2025 年定價部分的信心程度而言。我知道歐洲的定價總是存在不確定性，尤其是每年的這個時候。就更廣泛的角度來看——也許是一些與歐洲競爭背景相關的更廣泛的評論。今年與過去幾年相比。謝謝。

Yeah. Again, it's a story of the two hemispheres. In the Americas, we see that growth coupled with sort of tighter capacity utilization in all markets. And there's less if no pricing pressure and some pricing growth actually. And then in Europe, particularly in Southwest Europe where there is overcapacity, we are seeing some price pressure. But if we look at where we are in the cycle and if we look at where we said we would be in October, I think we're landing just where we thought we would be.

是的。再一次，這是一個兩個半球的故事。在美洲，我們看到這種成長伴隨著所有市場的產能利用率趨緊。如果沒有定價壓力，價格實際上會有所增長，而且壓力也會較小。在歐洲，特別是在產能過剩的西南歐，我們看到一些價格壓力。但是，如果我們看看我們現在處於週期的哪個階段，如果我們看看我們說過十月我們會處於哪個階段，我想我們就會到達我們預想的那個階段。

I can add a little bit of color on that one too, Ghansham. About 55% of our global portfolio is under long term contracts with price adjustment formulas that play out every year. So that area is pretty stable in that regard. The other 45% is -- tends to be local business that gets renegotiated on an annual basis. And as you referenced that the key area is over in Europe where there's a lot of smaller wineries and smaller customers that negotiate every year.

我也可以為這個添加一點顏色，Ghansham。我們全球投資組合中約有 55% 屬於長期合約，且每年都會執行價格調整公式。因此從這個方面來看該地區相當穩定。其餘 45% 往往是每年重新談判的本地業務。正如您所說，關鍵地區在歐洲，那裡有很多小型釀酒廠和小型客戶，每年都會進行談判。

We're about, between 65% and 70% done in that effort over in Europe. So if you take a look at the whole overall portfolio, we're probably 80% to 90% landed on our prices for 2025. So that gives us the confidence building off of what Gordon says, that things are coming in line with what we expect and we and should be fairly stabilized except for the remaining negotiations which are rather minor, given the full portfolio.

在歐洲，我們的努力已經完成了 65% 到 70%。因此，如果你看一下整個投資組合，我們可能已經確定了 2025 年價格的 80% 到 90%。因此，戈登所說的話讓我們更有信心，事情正在按照我們的預期發展，除了剩下的談判之外，我們的局勢應該會相當穩定，考慮到整個投資組合，這些談判相當小。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

Thanks so much. Hi, everybody. Good morning. Thanks for all the details. My questions -- how are you doing?

非常感謝。大家好。早安.感謝您提供的所有詳細資訊。我的問題是──你好嗎？

I know it's impossible to peg with precision, but had there been a 25% tariff to the extent that you spoke with your customers and studied it, what effect would that have had on your volume during 2025? Again, if let's say it stayed on for a quarter or two, time it however you want.

我知道不可能精確地確定，但如果關稅達到 25%，並且您與客戶進行了溝通並進行了研究，那麼這會對您 2025 年的銷售產生什麼影響？再說一次，如果假設它持續一到兩個季度，那麼您可以隨意安排時間。

Relatedly in that question, how volume dependent are your a Fit to Win performance improvements? You know, I guess in some regards they're going to be relatively unaffected, but at some point, volume affects everything. So how much of a shock absorber do you have to get those savings to the bottom line relative to the volume outlook? And I have a quick follow on.

與該問題相關的是，您的 Fit to Win 性能改進與音量有多大關係？你知道，我想在某些方面它們會相對不受影響，但在某種程度上，數量會影響一切。那麼，相對於銷售前景，你需要多大的避震器才能將這些節省降至最低？我很快會跟進。

Yeah. Well, thanks for that, George. You know, as we said, from the outset in July, our Fit to Win program is not volume dependent, okay? And I think that thesis is still intact. The self-help levers that we have, they are largely with costs that we control and not dependent on volume. And we assume for the plan that we would have flat volume through the whole plant 2027. But specifically, with regard to tariffs, there's a lot of uncertainty and like everybody else, we've spent a lot of time thinking it over the last number of weeks and modeling things out.

是的。好吧，謝謝你，喬治。您知道，正如我們所說的，從 7 月開始，我們的 Fit to Win 計劃就不依賴數量，好嗎？我認為這個論點仍然完整。我們所擁有的自助槓桿，主要與我們控制的成本有關，而不依賴數量。根據計劃，我們假設到 2027 年整個工廠的產量將保持穩定。但具體來說，就關稅而言，存在著許多不確定性，和其他人一樣，我們在過去幾週花了很多時間思考這個問題，並對情況進行建模。

But if we look at our volume that crosses, we say the Mexican border or Canadian border, it's about 2% of empty bottles, put it that way. But then we also have exposure to customers that either export from Canada or export from Mexico. You can land in different places depending on what assumptions. Because if there are declines in volumes into the US, given consumer demand, that volume is going to be picked up by domestic beer. And we have the largest network in the US. And therefore, we would see positive exposure to growth in domestic brands.

但如果我們看看跨越墨西哥邊境或加拿大邊境的空瓶數量，大約佔2%，可以這麼說。但我們也接觸從加拿大出口或從墨西哥出口的客戶。根據不同的假設，您可以降落在不同的地方。因為如果美國的啤酒銷售量下降，考慮到消費者的需求，那麼國產啤酒的銷售量將會上升。我們擁有美國最大的網路。因此，我們將看到國內品牌的正面成長。

And we also expect talking to customers that, should they have declines in one market. They are actively going to chase volume in other markets and look to deepen their penetration in markets in Latin America and in Europe, for example. So we're talking probably exposure somewhere between [10 million and 15 million] number in that range which by accelerating some of our initiatives we would expect to cover. But there's a lot of uncertainty as one could expect. We have a number of scenarios planned, but that's kind of where we landed.

我們也希望與客戶溝通，了解他們在一個市場是否出現下滑。他們將積極追逐其他市場的銷售量，並尋求深化在拉丁美洲和歐洲市場的滲透。因此，我們談論的曝光量可能在 [1000 萬到 1500 萬] 之間，透過加速我們的一些舉措，我們有望涵蓋這個範圍。但正如人們所預料的那樣，存在著許多不確定性。我們計劃了許多場景，但結果就大致如此了。

The only thing I would add to that one is the only the only tariff George that we do know about right now is China and there's about 1.4 million tons of empty glass that comes into the United States from export markets. The majority does come in from China and we should be -- have an advantage on that piece of the pie and we'll see where the other parts come in play.

我唯一想補充的是，喬治，我們目前所知道的唯一關稅是中國，大約有 140 萬噸空玻璃從出口市場進入美國。大部分確實來自中國，我們應該在這部分市場中佔有優勢，然後我們再看看其他部分如何發揮作用。

Okay. Thanks, John. My follow-on is just a point of clarification. If we go to slide 7 and we look at the network optimization savings for '25 and it says $75 million to $100 million. And then I look at the right-hand bullet, the lower of the two in that section, it says evaluating further opportunity, yield total savings of $75 million to $100 million. Is that basically addressing the $75 million to $100 million? Or that means there could be an incremental $75 million to $100 million from you know, efforts you discuss, evaluate and talk to us about in March. Thank you.

好的。謝謝，約翰。我的後續內容只是為了澄清一點。如果我們翻到第 7 張投影片，我們看看 25 年的網路優化節省額，它顯示為 7500 萬美元到 1 億美元。然後我看了看右邊的項目符號，也就是該部分中較低的一個，上面寫著評估進一步的機會，總節省金額為 7500 萬至 1 億美元。這基本上是解決 7500 萬到 1 億美元的問題了嗎？或者這意味著，透過您在三月與我們討論、評估和談論的努力，可能會增加 7500 萬到 1 億美元的資金。謝謝。

Yeah, George, I can clarify that one. The first bullet point, the actions that we've done the 7% is about $75 million of benefit in 2025. We would anticipate potential actions, bringing the cumulative number to $75 million to $100 million as we show kind of in the middle column, those two numbers are not additive, okay.

是的，喬治，我可以澄清這一點。第一點，我們採取的行動是，到 2025 年，7% 的收益將達到約 7,500 萬美元。我們預計可能會採取一些行動，使累積數字達到 7500 萬美元到 1 億美元，正如我們在中間一欄中顯示的，這兩個數字不是可加的，好吧。

Got it. Very good. Thank you so much.

知道了。非常好。太感謝了。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)

Good morning. One of the large can makers I think recently suggested that glass to metal substitution had maybe kind of run its course in North American beer, but maybe not in Europe. And I think the can makers have had pretty strong volumes in Europe. I'm just wondering as you look across your portfolio, are there regions or categories where substrate substitution is either, a meaningful headwind or tailwind in 2025 and just how you think about that dynamic?

早安.我認為最近有一家大型罐頭製造商表示，玻璃替代金屬的趨勢在北美啤酒中可能已經走到了盡頭，但在歐洲可能還沒有。我認為歐洲的罐頭製造商的產量相當大。我只是想知道，當您審視您的投資組合時，在哪些地區或類別中，基質替代在 2025 年會是顯著的逆風還是順風，以及您如何看待這種動態？

Yeah. From the outset, I think we've laid out that we need to reframe, within our own business, competition and it's not just glass, but we have a clear drive to get much more competitive with cans. And from the analysis that we've done over the years, there's a clear sort of pattern that when glass gets to within about 15% of the cost of cans, then you see a quick measurable flow from cans back into glass.

是的。從一開始，我認為我們就已經明確表示，我們需要在自己的業務範圍內重新建造競爭，而且競爭不僅限於玻璃，我們還有明確的動力，要讓罐頭更具競爭力。從我們多年來所做的分析來看，有一個明顯的模式，那就是當玻璃成本達到罐頭成本的 15% 左右時，你會看到從罐頭到玻璃的快速可測量的流動。

History is a great teacher. And I think if you look back at the history of O-I in the US and cans probably did not frame that competition sufficiently and focus on really, getting the cost based on the cost competitiveness right. So armed with that knowledge, we're taking the business forward with a view to getting competitive with cans in any market in which we compete with cans here. So I think that's our approach.

歷史是一位偉大的老師。我認為，如果回顧美國 O-I 的歷史，罐頭可能沒有充分建立競爭框架，也沒有真正專注於根據成本競爭力來控製成本。因此，有了這些知識，我們將推動業務發展，以期在任何與罐頭競爭的市場上都能與罐頭競爭。所以我認為這就是我們的方法。

It's -- when you look at food and beverage packaging, let's say over the last 10 years, there's been some sort of solid growth, but most of that growth has gone to cans and most of it has gone to cans because glass and particularly oil glass hasn't been competitive enough. And that's part of the rationale and the reason why we're embarking on the course. We're embarking to get competitive, not just with glass, but to get competitive with cans and to offer our customers again, the opportunity to put glass back in their portfolios in a greater proportion.

如果你看一下食品和飲料包裝，假設在過去的 10 年裡，出現了某種程度的穩定增長，但大部分增長都流向了罐頭，而大部分增長都流向了罐頭，因為玻璃，特別是石油玻璃的競爭力還不夠。這就是我們踏上這條路的部分理由和原因。我們正在著手提高競爭力，不僅在玻璃方面，而且在罐頭方面，並再次為我們的客戶提供機會，將玻璃以更大的比例重新納入他們的產品組合。

One thing I'll flag up is just before Christmas, we had the announcement that glass was now available for RTDs in 12 ounces. And that has not been the case for well over 20 years. And that opens up opportunities for glass volume growth in a category that's growing in mid 10s year-on-year and has been for a number of years. And so we see opportunities there for glass to penetrate RTDs in a way it never did over the last 20 years. So I think where we're focused on is getting competitive, not just with other glass competitors, but getting more competitive with cans overall.

我要指出的一件事是，就在聖誕節前，我們宣布現在有 12 盎司的 RTD 玻璃瓶可供使用。但二十多年來，這種情況從未發生過。這為玻璃銷售成長提供了機會，該類別的玻璃銷售量多年來一直以每年 10% 左右的速度成長。因此，我們看到了玻璃以過去 20 年從未有過的方式滲透到 RTD 的機會​​。因此我認為我們的重點是提高競爭力，不僅是與其他玻璃競爭對手的競爭力，而是提高與罐頭整體的競爭力。

Okay. That helpful. I'll turn it over.

好的。這很有幫助。我把它翻過來。

Joshua Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的 Joshua Spector。

Yeah, hi, good morning. I wanted to ask about your plan for your energy contracts or at least any update you can give as those start to come due in 2026, just as we're trying to think about the bridging items to your Fit to Win plan. What's baked in for an assumption there in terms of that headwind? And are you doing anything now to potentially position yourself to offset that?

是的，你好，早安。我想問一下你的能源合約計劃，或者至少你能提供任何更新信息，因為這些合約將於 2026 年到期，正如我們正在考慮你的 Fit to Win 計劃的銜接項目一樣。對於這種逆風，有什麼假設嗎？那麼您現在是否正在採取任何措施來抵消這項影響？

Yeah, so I can give you -- I can -- Josh, I can touch base on that to start with. Obviously we don't want to get into '26 and out periods. I mean, we just gave guidance for '25. But I want to focus on, you know what we are saying for 2027. We have looked at the outlook for our business, commercially procurement energy as well as Fit to Win and the initiatives we're doing there. That has landed the $1.45 billion and the other numbers that Gordon referenced earlier.

是的，所以我可以給你——我可以——喬希，我可以先從這個角度來談談這個問題。顯然，我們不想陷入‘26’時期。我的意思是，我們剛剛給了 25 年的指導。但我想集中討論一下我們對 2027 年的展望。我們研究了我們的業務前景、商業採購能源以及「Fit to Win」和我們在那裡採取的措施。這筆錢達到了 14.5 億美元以及戈登之前提到的其他數字。

So as we look to the future, we have already identified over $300 million of benefits in Fit to Win. We're already $175 million to $200 million of that. It should be realized in 2025 alone. We'll have all of Phase B and of us. We'll lay that out during I Day at next month at that event. And so that will provide additional benefits as we look to derisking the future period and some of the commercial activities of the business that could include, energy and other areas. So we'll lay that all out next month with the moving pieces, but that's all comprehended in the outlook that we have for that 2027 period.

因此，展望未來，我們已經確定「Fit to Win」計畫將帶來超過 3 億美元的收益。我們已經獲得了 1.75 億到 2 億美元。僅 2025 年就應該實現。我們將擁有 B 階段的全部內容和我們自己的內容。我們將在下個月的 I Day 活動期間闡述這一點。因此，當我們著眼於降低未來時期的風險以及業務的一些商業活動（可能包括能源和其他領域）時，這將提供額外的好處。因此，我們將在下個月將所有移動部分列出來，但這些都包含在我們對 2027 年時期的展望中。

And just to add a bit on that, from the outset we laid out that Fit to Win is an end-to-end review of the business and energy is included in that review. I think in the past, we probably had a fragmented approach to energy, either by region or by subregion or even down to plant level.

補充一點，從一開始我們就明確指出，Fit to Win 是對業務的端到端審查，並且能源也包含在該審查中。我認為，過去我們對能源的態度可能是分散的，要么按地區，要么按次區域，甚至按工廠層面。

We now have an enterprise-wide program running where we're looking at energy across the business in a very standard way with a standard program for each plant now and how to, how to reduce energy backed up by state of the art software going into to all of the plants to track energy usage throughout the plants. And that hasn't been done before in the business.

我們現在有一個企業範圍的程序在運行，我們用非常標準的方式查看整個企業的能源，現在每個工廠都有一個標準程序，以及如何減少能源，並以最先進的軟體為後盾，進入所有工廠，追蹤整個工廠的能源使用情況。這在該行業以前是沒有發生過的。

And we expect to yield, usage savings from that and that's part of our plan to offset any headwind that that might arise as we move forward. I think also just a kind of a final (inaudible) on that. As we reconfigure the network going forward, we'll have lower energy costs.

我們期望從中節省使用成本，這是我們計劃的一部分，以抵消我們前進過程中可能出現的任何不利因素。我認為這也只是一種最後的（聽不清楚）。隨著我們未來重新配置網絡，我們的能源成本將會降低。

Okay. Now that makes sense. So I'll follow up with you guys on that in a month or so. One question on '25 is just with your working capital guidance and your free cash flow, you said about flat. I think earlier in your slides, you said about $50 million to $100 million reduction in inventory. So I guess, are there offsets and receivables or payables or is that working capital assumption in the bridge for free cash flow a bit conservative?

好的。現在這說得通了。所以我會在大約一個月內跟進此事。關於 25 的一個問題是關於您的營運資本指導和自由現金流，您說的是持平。我記得您之前在幻燈片中提到庫存減少約 5,000 萬至 1 億美元。所以我猜測，是否存在抵消和應收帳款或應付帳款，或者橋樑中的營運資本假設對於自由現金流來說是否有點保守？

Yeah. So one thing I would say, we're going to get $50 million to $100 million of favorable working capital through the inventory reduction. But at the same token, we are taking out and reducing the scope of our operating network which -- it drives the efficiencies of the operations. But it also does result in a smaller AP balance because you just have a smaller population of plants. And so there's some effect of that.

是的。所以我想說的是，透過減少庫存，我們將獲得 5,000 萬至 1 億美元的有利營運資金。但同樣，我們也在削減和縮小我們的營運網路的範圍，從而提高營運效率。但它也會導致 AP 平衡變小，因為植物數量較少。所以這會產生一些影響。

Now, that's kind of a one-time step down as you move those through. It's not indicative of working capital management. It's just, pruning down to a smaller, more efficient base. So we're looking at that as the balancing act, I would like to think that we'll be able to do better than that with some additional decisions that we can make over the course of the year, but we'll update you as the year goes by.

現在，當您移動它們時，這是一種一次性的步驟。它並不代表營運資本管理。這只是修剪成一個更小、更有效率的基礎。因此，我們將其視為一種平衡行為，我想，透過在今年內做出一些額外的決定，我們能夠做得更好，但我們將在一年的時間裡向您通報最新情況。

And just as an addition to that, that whole working capital inventory management piece is a focus of the Fit to Win program.

除此之外，整個營運資本庫存管理部分是 Fit to Win 計畫的重點。

We landed sort of, around the mid [fifties] day market at the end of the year and yet we have parts of our business that are down below 30. So and you look at the shape of those businesses, the customer spread, the footprint, logistics footprint around those plants and there's no particular reason why other plants can't get there. So that really is a massive focus for us in managing the one element of the efficiency of the business going forward to, to push more cash out of the business.

我們在年底的日間市場中達到了大約 50% 的水平，但我們的部分業務卻低於 30%。所以你看看這些業務的形態、客戶分佈、足跡、這些工廠周圍的物流足跡，你會發現沒有什麼特別的原因導致其他工廠無法到達那裡。因此，這確實是我們管理未來業務效率的一個要素的重點，以便從業務中賺取更多現金。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC.

阿倫·維斯瓦納坦（Arun Viswanathan），RBC。

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Congrats on the progress thus far in the transformation. So I guess just on that point, I guess you noted still sluggish volumes across many of the categories. So I think you said that the program isn't really volume dependent, but what if volumes are actually negative in '25? Do you still expect to I realize the full extent of your Fit to Win benefits? And I guess I'm specifically thinking about would, would you have to take swifter action on some of the furnace closures? And maybe you can just give you thoughts on some of those items. Thanks.

偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。祝賀轉型迄今的進展。所以我想就這一點而言，我想你會注意到許多類別的交易量仍然低迷。所以我認為您說過該計劃實際上並不依賴交易量，但如果 '25 年的交易量實際上為負值怎麼辦？您是否仍期望我能充分享受「Fit to Win」福利？我特別想問的是，您是否需要對一些熔爐關閉採取更快的行動？也許您可以就其中一些項目發表一下您的想法。謝謝。

Yeah. You know, as we've mentioned, our Fit to Win program is not sort of volume dependent as such, right? Our, our biggest opportunity is to take the volume we have and make it more profitable and to get higher returns on the capital we have currently invested. And we see that as the path over the next two to three years to boost the value of the business.

是的。您知道，正如我們所提到的，我們的 Fit to Win 計劃並不是依賴音量，對嗎？我們最大的機會是利用現有的業務量，提高獲利能力，並從目前投資的資本中獲得更高的回報。我們認為這是未來兩到三年提升業務價值的途徑。

We have volume that is currently challenged on an EP level. And we are working through what we need to do on our side to make that more profitable. And if after those efforts, it's not profitable and we can't get to an agreement with a customer around the price increase, then we will be taking that volume out. And if there's capacity to come out with it, we will be doing that.

目前，我們的銷售量在 EP 層級上面臨挑戰。我們正在盡一切努力來提高利潤。如果經過這些努力仍然沒有獲利，而且我們無法與客戶就漲價問題達成協議，那麼我們就會取消該產量。如果有能力實現，我們就會這麼做。

So our whole focus is on really getting much better returns on the capital and on the -- that we have currently in place by boosting the profitability of the volume we have. We're not actively chasing volume for volume's sake. So this really is about boosting the returns on the capital we invested by making the volume we currently have more profitable, and we see a line of sight to that this year.

因此，我們的全部重點是透過提高現有業務的獲利能力，真正獲得更好的資本回報和目前的回報。我們不會為了銷量而積極追求銷量。因此，這實際上是為了透過增加我們目前的獲利能力來提高我們所投資的資本的回報率，我們看到今年將實現這一目標。

So -- and it may well be, as we take out volume, we may you have slightly less volume, at the end of the year, but that will be because of deliberate decision making around economic profit.

因此 — — 很有可能，當我們減少產量時，到年底產量會略有減少，但這是因為圍繞經濟利潤的深思熟慮的決策。

Okay, that's helpful. So it sounds like it's mostly on the cost side. But again, just going back to one of your earlier comments about oversupply in certain European countries. It sounds like there's a possibility that some of those you would have some price deterioration. So again, just in a similar vein, to the extent that you can take costs out, would you -- how do you expect to combat price competition and the possibility of rolling back some of that pricing that you were able to achieve in the '22, '23 period?

好的，這很有幫助。因此聽起來這主要與成本方面有關。不過，我們再回到您之前關於某些歐洲國家供應過剩的評論。聽起來其中一些商品的價格有可能會下跌。所以，同樣地，在您能夠降低成本的範圍內，您會如何應對價格競爭，以及可能如何降低在 22、23 年期間實現的部分定價？

Yeah, look, I think the equation in terms of how we look at the business is revenue minus our targets EBIT equals our cost base, right? So we've got a number to deliver, and we'll obviously look to manage our margins. But if there is excessive price activity, then we'll adjust the cost base, yeah?

是的，看，我認為我們看待業務的等式是收入減去我們的目標息稅前利潤等於我們的成本基礎，對嗎？因此，我們有一個數字要實現，而且我們顯然會設法管理我們的利潤率。但如果價格活動過度，那麼我們就會調整成本基礎，對嗎？

So as John said, we're 80% to 90% through the season. A lot of our -- the majority of our contracts -- our volume is contracted for the year, and we are where we thought we would be in October. There may be some skirmishing throughout the year, but manage that through effective cost management and --

正如約翰所說，我們已經完成了賽季的 80% 到 90%。我們的大部分合約量都是按年簽訂的，而且我們的合約量與 10 月份的預期一致。全年可能會有一些小衝突，但可以透過有效的成本管理和--

(multiple speakers)

（多位發言者）

One thing I would add on that -- one thing I'd add, keep in mind we're looking at after a number of years of positive price improvement earlier in the decade. We're looking at flat prices this year on an absolute basis up a little bit in Americas is down in Europe with the pressure point.

我想補充一點——我想補充一點，請記住，我們正在研究本世紀初幾年的積極價格改善。我們看到，今年的平價在絕對基礎上有所上漲，而美洲的價格則略有上漲，歐洲的價格則有所下降。

Keep in mind the negative net prices because we're seeing inflation starting to normalize assuming that in this marketplace. And with more than half of our business being under long term contracts, there's a timing issue there of recapturing that inflation which probably becomes more of a 2026 element, right? So part of the negative price that you're seeing in our outlook is a little bit of a timing, at least on the contracted business. And so keep that in mind as you look at the texture of the outlook.

請記住負淨價格，因為我們看到通貨膨脹在這個市場上開始正常化。而且由於我們一半以上的業務都簽訂了長期合同，因此重新控制通貨膨脹存在一個時間問題，這可能更多地成為 2026 年的一個因素，對嗎？因此，您在我們的展望中看到的負價格在一定程度上與時機有關，至少對於合約業務而言是如此。所以當你觀察前景的結構時，請記住這一點。

Okay. That's helpful. And just lastly if I may. Just on the CapEx. So it's nice to see that that come down a little bit. What's kind of the longer term CapEx thought? I know you're maybe moderating your MAGMA spend. But what makes up the CapEx? And I guess what's your longer-term target? Thanks.

好的。這很有幫助。最後，如果可以的話。僅關於資本支出。很高興看到這一數字有所下降。長期資本支出想法是什麼樣的？我知道您可能正在控制您的 MAGMA 支出。但是資本支出由什麼組成呢？我想問一下您的長期目標是什麼？謝謝。

Unfortunately, it appears we have lost the speaker team. We'll be back with you momentarily. Thank you for your patience.

不幸的是，我們似乎失去了演講團隊。我們很快就會回來聯絡您。感謝您的耐心。

Hello, this is the O-I team. We had a little bit of a technical glitch there, but we are back online. Sorry about that.

大家好，這是 O-I 團隊。我們遇到了一點技術故障，但是已經恢復上線。很抱歉。

Arun, just to close out on your question. As we go forward, productivity is the cornerstone of how we're running the business. As we drive, further productivity through the business, we would expect to be less dependent on pricing to cover inflation, yeah.

阿倫，我只想結束你的提問。隨著我們不斷前進，生產力是我們經營業務的基石。隨著我們透過業務進一步提高生產力，我們預計對定價的依賴將減少，以應對通貨膨脹。

And then we will price for value in terms of what we deliver to the customer. So that really is how we're thinking about the model as we go forward. So really accelerate productivity year-on-year to ease inflation and then we price for value where we bring innovation and bring extra services to the to the customer.

然後，我們將根據向客戶提供的產品的價值來定價。所以這其實就是我們未來對該模型的思考方式。因此，我們確實會逐年加快生產力以緩解通貨膨脹，然後我們根據價值定價，為客戶提供創新和額外服務。

Okay, thanks. I'll turn it over.

好的，謝謝。我把它翻過來。

Gabe Hajde, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的 Gabe Hajde。

Hi, good morning. I appreciate it's a little bit of a moving target with plant closures, meaning you're not able to realize the fixed cost savings and improved overhead absorption. But I think you guys were kind of carrying $170 million, maybe $180 million of underabsorbed fixed overhead.

嗨，早安。我知道工廠關閉是一個不斷變化的目標，這意味著你無法實現固定成本的節省和改善的間接成本吸收。但我認為你們承擔了 1.7 億美元，甚至可能是 1.8 億美元的未吸收固定間接費用。

In slide 8, you call out I think $50 million of higher production, but you're also talking about obviously still whittling down some inventory. So I'm just curious, maybe your best estimate of how much underabsorbed, fixed overhead or production is still stuck in the system that could be unlocked, I guess in '26, '27. [I think, you're better now]

在幻燈片 8 中，您提到我認為產量將增加 5,000 萬美元，但您也在談論顯然仍在削減一些庫存。所以我只是好奇，也許你對系統中仍有多少未吸收的固定間接費用或生產能夠被解鎖的最佳估計，我猜是在'26，'27年。[我認為你現在好多了]

Yeah, I can touch base on that one and let me kind of just get the bigger picture here. So we had about 13% capacity curtailment in 2024. So the absolute level of fixed cost absorption was about $250 million, okay? So you know, we that ramped up over a two year period of time, we had about $70 million impact calendar year in 2023 and about $180 million impact in 2024 for that cumulative $250 million.

是的，我可以就此進行討論，讓我能夠大致了解一下情況。因此，到 2024 年，我們的產能削減幅度將達到約 13%。那麼固定成本吸收的絕對水準約為 2.5 億美元，好嗎？您知道，我們在兩年的時間內不斷增加，在 2023 年的影響約為 7,000 萬美元，在 2024 年的影響約為 1.8 億美元，累積影響為 2.5 億美元。

So as we move forward into 2025 we expect that to be halved, okay. So go from $250 million down to about $125 million in the calendar year. We expect that to improve. The biggest driver is because we're taking out as we were referred to before the $75 million to $100 million from permanent closures and something like $25 million to $50 million through having requiring less inventory management as we go through 2025 itself.

所以當我們進入 2025 年時，我們預計這個數字會減半，好的。因此，日曆年金額將從 2.5 億美元下降到約 1.25 億美元。我們希望情況會有所改善。最大的驅動因素是我們將從永久關閉中拿出 7500 萬至 1 億美元，並在 2025 年到來時通過減少庫存管理拿出 2500 萬至 5000 萬美元，正如我們之前提到的。

So we expect to have substantial improvement in that. And keep in mind since this is activity over the course of the year, really the exit run rate in 2025 is more like $75 million dollars of carrying of excess inventory -- I mean, excess capacity as we continue to work things down.

因此，我們希望在這方面取得實質的進步。請記住，由於這是全年的活動，因此 2025 年的退出運行率實際上更像是 7500 萬美元的過剩庫存 - 我的意思是，隨著我們繼續減少庫存，產能過剩。

And as we referenced in our prepared comments, we continue to look at opportunities to make further adjustments to be able to minimize and ideally fully reduce in due time that that overhead absorption there. Hopefully that gives you the context you're looking for.

正如我們在準備好的評論中所提到的，我們將繼續尋找機會進行進一步的調整，以便能夠最大限度地減少並理想地在適當的時候完全減少那裡的間接費用吸收。希望這能為您提供您正在尋找的背景資訊。

Okay. And that it's one of two things, right? It's either volumes sort of started to recover or they're more permanent closures which I know you guys have alluded to.

好的。這是兩件事之一，對嗎？要么是產量開始恢復，要么是永久性的關閉，我知道你們已經提到過這一點。

Yeah. Correct. And right now, we're working off of our assumption of kind of flattish or we may ultimately exit some business. So we're not -- we're being cautious on the commercial side. So, we continue to look at the capacity optimization.

是的。正確的。現在，我們正在根據某種持平的假設開展工作，或者我們最終可能會退出一些業務。因此，我們在商業方面保持謹慎。因此，我們持續關注產能優化。

And keep in mind, as we -- as Gordon referenced, the Phase B of what we're doing when fit to win is, is much more through our total organization effectiveness about optimizing our capacity, which will allow us to get more capacity out of our current network that will allow further network optimization. Not to confuse the two of those, but they do kind of go hand in hand over time as we look to optimize the network and reduce fixed costs.

請記住，正如戈登所提到的，我們在「適合取勝」時所做工作的 B 階段更多的是透過我們的整個組織效率來優化我們的容量，這將使我們能夠從當前網路中獲得更多的容量，從而進一步優化網路。不要混淆這兩者，但隨著我們尋求優化網路並降低固定成本，它們確實會隨著時間的推移而齊頭並進。

Yes. Okay. I wanted to kind of go to Phase B a little bit. You're calling out again slide $120 million to $150 million of cash restructuring. I guess as you evaluate Phase B, is that equally as cash intensive? Or would some of those improvements be more maybe system dependent that you have to install new systems or is it process oriented that is less capital intensive? And I guess maybe even on Phase A as we look into '26 and think about cash restructuring, knowing what we know today, would we expect kind of that midpoint restructuring spend of $135 million? Which -- where would it go in '26?

是的。好的。我有點想進入 B 階段。您再次呼籲進行 1.2 億美元至 1.5 億美元的現金重組。我猜，當您評估 B 階段時，它是否同樣需要大量現金？或者其中一些改進可能更依賴系統，以至於您必須安裝新系統，或者是流程導向的，資本密集程度較低？我想也許甚至在階段 A，當我們展望 26 年並考慮現金重組時，根據我們今天所了解的情況，我們是否會預期中點重組支出為 1.35 億美元？哪一個——它在 26 年會去哪裡？

Yeah. What I would say is we probably will have a fair amount of restructuring activity going on in '25 and some level into '26, okay. It will carry over there. I mean, at $125 million -- $120 million to $150 million in 2025 that's covering the Phase A activities in the beginning of some of the Phase B. So we're trying to capture our best estimate right now as the cumulative effect of that, it could shift around a little bit. But then if you go into 2026 it will be mostly the Phase B activity. It'll probably be peak restructuring in 2025.

是的。我想說的是，我們可能會在25年進行大量重組活動，而這種重組活動會持續到26年。它會轉移到那裡。我的意思是，到 2025 年，這個數字將達到 1.25 億美元到 1.2 億美元到 1.5 億美元，涵蓋了 B 階段開始階段的部分活動。但如果進入 2026 年，主要將為 B 階段活動。2025年可能是重組的高峰期。

Got it. Okay. And then shifting gears a little bit. Aluminum is, is already up. Aluminum premiums have moved quite a bit higher in anticipation of some of these trade discrepancies. And then obviously the reais depreciated against the dollar. So does that influence or impact how you guys are thinking about the summer sales season for '25/'26? And I appreciate it's -- we're in February right now, but I think those customers kind of tend to hedge out 9 to 12 months. So maybe that presents a better opportunity in Brazil.

知道了。好的。然後稍微換一下檔位。鋁價已經漲。由於預期會出現一些貿易差異，鋁溢價已經大幅上漲。然後雷亞爾兌美元顯然貶值了。那麼這是否會影響你們對 25/26 年夏季銷售季的看法？我很感激——現在是二月份，但我認為那些客戶傾向於對沖 9 到 12 個月的時間。因此也許這對巴西來說是一個更好的機會。

I think overall, anything that closes the gap in cost between glass and cans is helpful to us. As we said, when glass gets within and particularly our glass gets within 15% of the cost of cans, we see a growth in glass volumes. But our target of getting within 15% excludes any movement in aluminum is because it's something we can't control. So our focus is on the elements that we control and driving that competitiveness [chance] And so anything that closes that gap obviously would see as advantageous through last year.

我認為總的來說，任何能夠縮小玻璃和罐頭之間成本差距的方法對我們都是有益的。正如我們所說的，當玻璃價格達到罐頭成本的 15% 以內時，特別是我們的玻璃價格達到罐頭成本的 15% 以內時，我們就會看到玻璃產量的增長。但我們設定的 15% 以內的目標不包括鋁的任何變動，因為這是我們無法控制的。因此，我們的重點是我們控制的要素以及推動競爭力（機會）的因素，因此，任何縮小差距的措施顯然在去年都會被視為有利的。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Niccolo Piccini, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Niccolo Piccini。

Yeah. Hi, guys. Thanks. For taking my questions. I guess just to start off. It looks like bourbon, whiskey, they're impaired and they've been weak for a while and that might continue. And one of your customers there recently announced a restructuring and workforce action.

是的。嗨，大家好。謝謝。感謝您回答我的問題。我想這只是開始。看起來波本威士忌、威士忌都受到了影響，而且疲軟了一段時間，而且這種情況可能會持續下去。你們的一位客戶最近宣布了重組和勞動力行動。

I was just wondering if you can comment on Bowling Green and how that's operating given. It's right in the middle of Bourbon Country and if there's any concerns about filling the line or maybe reorienting mix going forward.

我只是想知道您是否可以對 Bowling Green 以及它的運作情況進行評論。它正好位於波本威士忌之鄉的中心，如果有人擔心填補空白或可能重新調整組合。

Nicco, can you repeat the first part of that question? It was a little garbled on our end, we didn't hear.

尼科，你能重複這個問題的第一部分嗎？我們這邊的聲音有點混亂，我們沒聽清楚。

Oh, sorry about that. Just, it looks like whiskey and bourbon could be impaired for a while longer and one of your customers announced some layoffs and restructuring. So can you comment on Bowling Green and how that plant is operating and if there's any concerns filling the line?

噢，很抱歉。只是，看起來威士忌和波本威士忌的銷量可能還會受到影響一段時間，而且您的一位客戶宣布了裁員和重組。那麼您能否評論一下 Bowling Green 工廠的運作情況以及生產線填充方面是否存在什麼問題？

Yeah, I'll take that. So with regard to Bowling Green, as we said, we've got two objectives there this year. One is to have the plant operate at industrial scale efficiently and then to fit with the right mix. We know the core magnet technology is working so it's about ramp up and filling with the right mix of volume. We have a book of business that's building and it's building in the right mix.

是的，我接受。因此，關於鮑靈格林，正如我們所說，我們今年有兩個目標。一是讓工廠以工業規模高效運轉，然後進行正確的組合。我們知道核心磁鐵技術正在發揮作用，因此它的關鍵在於提升並填充適當的體積組合。我們擁有一批正在建設中的業務，而這些業務正以正確的組合方式建造。

And you know, it's very much towards the premium and super premium end of the market. And as we look forward this year, we see opportunities to put the right mix in place. Remember, this plant is -- it's somewhere around 30,000 to 40,000 at full tilt. So it's not as if it's a 100,000-ton kind of furnace to fill. So we're -- that's what we're focused on and that's what the commercial teams are driving to.

你知道，它主要面向高端和超高端市場。展望今年，我們看到了實施正確組合的機會。請記住，這個工廠——全速運轉時大約有 30,000 到 40,000 個。因此，它不像是一個需要填滿十萬噸的熔爐。所以——這就是我們所關注的重點，也是商業團隊所努力的方向。

Understood. Thank you. And I just -- going back to the question we've asked before on the difference between your margins in Europe and your competitors over there. There's maybe like a 6% or 7% difference on average. I wonder Gordon, now that you've been in the seat for nine months, what you think is driving that and if you have with Fit to Win an idea of how much of that differential could be made up.

明白了。謝謝。我只是——回到我們之前提出的問題，即你們在歐洲的利潤率和你們在那裡的競爭對手的利潤率之間的差異。平均差異大概為 6% 或 7%。我想知道，戈登，現在您已經擔任這個職位九個月了，您認為是什麼推動了這一趨勢，以及您是否知道透過 Fit to Win 可以彌補多大的差異。

Yeah. It's largely cost and footprint. Many of our competitors have a smaller, have a smaller footprint and probably our main competitor there has a smaller footprint with roughly the same volume. So there's a cost advantage there. And yes, Fit to Win is designed to get us as competitive and probably more competitive than competitors through the cycle. And that's what we're setting out to achieve. And that's the focus.

是的。這主要與成本和占地面積有關。我們的許多競爭對手的佔地面積都較小，可能我們的主要競爭對手的佔地面積也較小，但產量大致相同。因此，這裡具有成本優勢。是的，「Fit to Win」的設計初衷就是讓我們在整個週期中與競爭對手一樣有競爭力，甚至比競爭對手更有競爭力。這正是我們想要實現的目標。這就是重點。

Less about margins and mix of business I would say. And in many case. We may actually have a better mix. When we look, we probably have more premium business than any other player. So you know, Fit to Win is designed to address the reality that our cost base has been too high. And so we intend to close that gap.

我想說的是，這與利潤和業務組合關係不大。並且在許多情況下。我們實際上可能有一個更好的組合。如果我們看一下，我們會發現我們可能比任何其他參與者擁有更多的優質業務。所以你知道，「Fit to Win」旨在解決我們的成本基礎過高的現實問題。因此我們打算縮小這一差距。

Hello?

你好？

Mark Bailey, I think we're ready for the next question.

馬克貝利，我想我們已經準備好回答下一個問題了。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

Thanks. Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the follow on. I want to take a bit of a different tact. So we fully appreciate that fit to win is designed to correct what you see as gaps between your performance, your costs versus your peers, both glass and elsewhere in rigid.

謝謝。嗨，大家好。感謝您的關注。我想採取一些不同的策略。因此，我們充分認識到，「適者取勝」旨在糾正您認為您的表現、成本與同行（包括玻璃和其他剛性材料）之間的差距。

When you've done the work on the other end, talking to your customers about their field work, what you've done to study this, and I recognize you're going to be biased. You should be, positively towards glass. But what are you finding in terms of customers' willingness to use glass based on what the consumer is telling them because you can become very competitive, improve your margins.

當你完成另一端的工作，與你的客戶談論他們的現場工作以及你為研究這一點所做的事情時，我認識到你會有偏見。您應該對玻璃持正面態度。但是，根據消費者的回饋，您發現客戶使用玻璃的意願如何？

But if the consumer has moved away or your customers moved away from it in terms of their mix, it will be less helpful. So what are you finding on the field in marketing, in terms of that outlook right now. Thank you, guys. Good luck in the quarter.

但如果消費者已經離開，或者您的客戶已經遠離了它，那麼它的幫助就會減少。那麼，就目前的觀點而言，您在行銷領域發現了什麼？謝謝你們。祝本季好運。

Yeah. Thanks, George. So I spend a lot of time out with customers, and I just come back from an extensive customer trip. I mean, the one thing is clear, and we laid this out next month is the power of glass in the minds and in the taste of consumers.

是的。謝謝，喬治。因此我花了很多時間與客戶相處，而且我剛剛結束了一次廣泛的客戶旅行回來。我的意思是，有一點很清楚，我們下個月將會闡述這一點，那就是玻璃在消費者心智和品味上的影響力。

Glass is the preferred mode of packaging. Consumers consistently say across any market that the product tastes better from glass. And nothing can be -- the whole the holding of the package, the glass package. Many of our customers have said to us look, we actually think, there's not enough glass in our portfolio.

玻璃是首選的包裝方式。無論在哪個市場，消費者都一致表示，玻璃杯裝的產品味道更好。沒有什麼可以——整個包裝，玻璃包裝。許多客戶對我們說，你看，我們實際上認為我們的產品組合中沒有足夠的玻璃。

And if you see the rising concerns around plastics, microplastics, we're seeing a fairly significant switch in food brands into glass. And in fact, across all our markets, I'd say, food is the standout and seeing some quite significant growth in food, particularly in Latin America where food is, in the last quarter, for example, was up 15%.

如果你發現人們對塑膠、微塑膠的擔憂日益加劇，我們會看到越來越多的食品品牌開始使用玻璃材質。事實上，在我們所有的市場中，我想說食品是最突出的，食品市場出現了相當顯著的增長，特別是在拉丁美洲，例如上個季度食品市場增長了 15%。

So from a consumer point of view, from a health point of view and from a portfolio point of view, because there tends to -- with glass, more opportunity to strengthen the equity of brands. And -- but what we are hearing is that needs to get more competitive with cans, right? And that's what we're doing. We're addressing that.

因此，從消費者的角度、從健康的角度以及從產品組合的角度來說，玻璃的存在往往意味著有更多的機會來加強品牌的資產。而且——但我們聽到的是，它需要與罐頭更具競爭力，對嗎？這正是我們正在做的事情。我們正在解決這個問題。

And the other thing I think that, gives us confidence that all of our customers when you talk to them about Fit to Win and we explain that us getting fit benefits them because it will allow us to invest more in their business and help them get more efficient, help them grow, help them differentiate and help them get more sustainable. And they are the four elements we focus on with customers.

我認為另一件事是，當你和所有客戶談論「Fit to Win」時，我們會對他們充滿信心，並解釋說，我們的適應能力使他們受益，因為這使我們能夠在他們的業務上投入更多，幫助他們提高效率，幫助他們成長，幫助他們脫穎而出，並幫助他們變得更加可持續。這也是我們關注客戶的四個要素。

And that you look at their plans over the next three to four years, they all have growth plans, and it all includes glass. I was in Latin America recently and one of our largest customers was talking to us about their plans for their portfolio and their glass demand looking anywhere between 10% and 25% increases depending on the market. So the growth is there, George and this has been a foundation part of the hypothesis.

看看他們未來三到四年的計劃，他們都有成長計劃，其中都包括玻璃。我最近在拉丁美洲，我們最大的客戶之一正在與我們討論他們的產品組合計劃，根據市場情況，他們的玻璃需求預計會增加 10% 到 25% 之間。因此，成長是存在的，喬治，這是假設的基礎部分。

The growth is there. We need to be competitive to access all of this. And that's the path we're on. So I'm not concerned about consumers and their attitudes to glass, quite the opposite that, that reinforces our hypothesis and reinforces our drive to make glass more competitive so we can get it into the hands of more people.

成長是存在的。我們必須具有競爭力才能獲得所有這些。這就是我們所走的路。因此，我並不擔心消費者及其對玻璃的態度，恰恰相反，這強化了我們的假設，也增強了我們讓玻璃更具競爭力的動力，這樣我們就可以將其送到更多人手中。

Look from some of the work that we've done on new products. You've actually seen a pick up in glass as well. So we would concur. I'm sorry, John, go ahead.

從我們在新產品上所做的一些工作來看。事實上您也已經看到玻璃價格的上漲。因此我們同意。對不起，約翰，請說。

No. I just wanted to correct a data point that I gave some bum information to Gordon earlier. Our portfolio is about 52% alcohol related and the balance is nonalcoholic beverages and food. I think our earlier referenced 75% and actually maybe a little bit of this conversation, we've actually seen a shift in the nonalcoholic categories and things like that. And glass has done well in a number of these categories too. So I think it feeds a little bit into discussion.

不。我只是想糾正一個數據點，我之前給了 Gordon 一些錯誤的資訊。我們的產品組合中約有 52% 與酒精有關，其餘為非酒精飲料和食品。我想我們之前提到的 75%，實際上也許還有一點，在這次談話中，我們實際上已經看到了非酒精類別和諸如此類的轉變。玻璃在這些類別中也表現良好。所以我認為這對討論有一點幫助。

Yeah. We see to, nonalcoholic beverages across the -- across all markets is growing either nonalcoholic beers, particularly in Europe or in the Americas and particularly in North America, water.

是的。我們看到，所有市場上的非酒精飲料都在成長，無論是非酒精啤酒（尤其是在歐洲或美洲，尤其是北美）還是水。

Thank you. This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to pass back over to Chris Manuel for any closing remarks.

謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。我想將發言權交還給克里斯·曼努埃爾 (Chris Manuel)，請他做最後發言。

Thank you, Bailey for being so nimble with us. And that concludes our earnings call. Please note that our first quarter 2025 earnings call is currently scheduled for Wednesday, April 30. Additionally, as we noted earlier, please mark your calendars. We'd love to see you at our I Day on March 14 at the New York Stock Exchange. And in conclusion, remember to make it a memorable moment by choosing safe, healthy, sustainable glass. Thank you.

謝謝你，貝利，對我們如此靈活。我們的收益電話會議到此結束。請注意，我們 2025 年第一季財報電話會議目前定於 4 月 30 日星期三舉行。此外，正如我們之前提到的，請記下您的日曆。我們很高興在 3 月 14 日紐約證券交易所的 I Day 上見到您。最後，請記得選擇安全、健康、永續的玻璃，讓這一刻成為難忘的回憶。謝謝。

This concludes today's call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。