O-I Glass Inc (OI) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello and welcome to today's O-I Glass third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. My name is Bailey and I will be your moderator for today. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to pass the conference over to our host, Chris Manuel with Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加今天的 O-I Glass 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫貝利，我將擔任今天的主持人。（操作員說明）我現在想將會議轉交給我們的東道主、投資者關係部門的克里斯·曼努埃爾（Chris Manuel）。請繼續。

Thank you, Bailey, and welcome everyone to the O-I Glass third-quarter 2024 conference call. Our discussion today will be led by our CEO, Gordon Hardie; and our CFO, John Haudrich. Following their prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A session. Presentation materials for today's call are available on the company's website. Please review the Safe Harbor comments and disclosure of our use of non-GAAP financial measures included in those materials. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Gordon who will begin on page 4.

謝謝 Bailey，歡迎大家參加 O-I Glass 2024 年第三季電話會議。我們今天的討論將由我們的執行長戈登哈迪 (Gordon Hardie) 主持；以及我們的財務長約翰·豪德里奇 (John Haudrich)。在他們準備好的發言之後，我們將舉辦問答環節。今天電話會議的簡報資料可在公司網站上取得。請查看這些資料中包含的安全港評論和我們使用非公認會計準則財務指標的揭露。現在，我想將電話轉給戈登，他將從第 4 頁開始。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you, Chris. Today, we will review our recent performance and the actions we have taken and will continue to take to grow the value of O-I. Last night, we reported an adjusted net loss of $0.04 per share for the third quarter of 2024, a decline from last year's strong performance. Our lower earnings primarily reflected curtailment of 18% of our production during the third quarter as we took decisive action to reduce inflated inventory levels after several quarters of sluggish demand. Net price was also down, partially offset by higher shipment levels.

大家早安，謝謝你，克里斯。今天，我們將回顧我們最近的表現以及我們已經採取並將繼續採取的行動來增加 O-I 的價值。昨晚，我們公佈 2024 年第三季調整後每股淨虧損 0.04 美元，較去年的強勁表現有所下降。我們的獲利下降主要反映了第三季度我們的產量減少了 18%，因為在幾個季度的需求低迷之後，我們採取了果斷行動來降低庫存水準。淨價也有所下降，但部分被出貨量增加所抵銷。

We are rapidly implementing our Fit to Win program to improve performance. In addition to rightsizing inventories and making significant reductions in SG&A costs, we are working to drive productivity and close unprofitable redundant capacity to improve our economic profit.

我們正在迅速實施 Fit to Win 計劃以提高績效。除了調整庫存規模和大幅降低銷售管理費用外，我們還致力於提高生產力並關閉無利可圖的冗餘產能，以提高我們的經濟利潤。

While these actions impact near-term earnings and cash flow, we believe they set the foundation for a solid recovery in 2025 and should enhance our long-term competitive position, which is key to future profitable growth. As we take these self-help actions to improve the company's value, we see that market conditions are slowly recovering.

雖然這些行動會影響短期收益和現金流，但我們相信它們為 2025 年的穩健復甦奠定了基礎，並應增強我們的長期競爭地位，這是未來獲利成長的關鍵。當我們採取這些自救行動來提高公司價值時，我們看到市場狀況正在慢慢復甦。

Our sales volumes were up modestly in the third quarter as shipments increased in nearly all geographies. Further, our MAGMA program achieved a key milestone as our first greenfield plant, began operations in Bowling Green, Kentucky this past quarter.

隨著幾乎所有地區的出貨量增加，我們的銷售量在第三季略有成長。此外，我們的 MAGMA 計劃實現了一個重要的里程碑，我們的第一個綠地工廠於上個季度在肯塔基州鮑靈格林開始運作。

2024 has been a challenging year. Our performance has been impacted by destocking in both the trade and in-home, together with sluggish consumption given economic uncertainty. We have, therefore, adjusted our outlook to reflect the continued softer-than-expected marketplace. While this performance is well below the business -- what the business can deliver, we expect significantly better results in 2025 as our Fit to Win measures improve our competitive position and markets gradually recover.

2024 年是充滿挑戰的一年。我們的業績受到貿易和國內去庫存以及經濟不確定性導致的消費低迷的影響。因此，我們調整了我們的前景，以反映市場持續疲軟的情況。雖然這項業績遠低於業務所能提供的水平，但隨著我們的「Fit to Win」措施提高了我們的競爭地位並且市場逐漸復甦，我們預計 2025 年的業績將顯著改善。

Let's now move to page 5 and further discuss the actions we are taking to increase the value of the company. We believe O-I has significant potential and are taking meaningful actions to advance the company. Our focus is on driving near-term returns by enhancing our competitiveness and capital discipline. This approach will position us well to achieve profitable growth when markets turn.

現在讓我們轉到第 5 頁，進一步討論我們為增加公司價值所採取的行動。我們相信 O-I 具有巨大潛力，並正在採取有意義的行動來推動公司發展。我們的重點是透過增強競爭力和資本紀律來推動短期回報。這種方法將使我們能夠在市場轉變時實現獲利成長。

We will execute this over three horizons. In Horizon 1, we will focus on our Fit to Win program, which we expect will drive a step change improvement in profitability, cash flow generation, and the competitive position of the company. We see significant earnings improvement that is within our control by improving the profitability of the volume we have and not dependent on the level or timing of a market recovery or incremental volume.

我們將在三個層面上執行這項任務。在地平線 1 中，我們將重點關注 Fit to Win 計劃，我們預計該計劃將推動公司盈利能力、現金流生成和競爭地位的逐步改善。我們看到，透過提高我們現有銷售的獲利能力，我們可以控制獲利的顯著改善，而不取決於市場復甦或增量的水平或時間。

In Horizon 2, we intend to accelerate profitable growth by leveraging a much more competitive cost position enabled by our Fit to Win program. As we seek to grow the business, we plan to align our CapEx with strategic customers' long-term plans, particularly in large and developing markets. Finally, in Horizon 3, we expect to have strategic optionality, which may include geographic expansion into new markets with potentially large profit pools.

在地平線 2 中，我們打算利用 Fit to Win 計畫帶來的更具競爭力的成本地位來加速獲利成長。當我們尋求業務成長時，我們計劃使我們的資本支出與策略客戶的長期計劃保持一致，特別是在大型和發展中市場。最後，在地平線 3 中，我們期望擁有策略選擇，其中可能包括向具有潛在巨大利潤池的新市場進行地理擴張。

This plan is different to past efforts. We are conducting a comprehensive review of our entire business and value chain. This holistic approach aims to reshape our company and streamline our operations, optimize our network, and reduce our cost of doing business significantly in order that we boost our competitiveness and drive profitable growth.

這個計劃與過去的努力不同。我們正在對整個業務和價值鏈進行全面審查。這種整體方法旨在重塑我們的公司，簡化我們的運營，優化我們的網絡，並顯著降低我們的業務成本，以提高我們的競爭力並推動獲利成長。

While it is early days, we have established initial three-year targets that span both Horizon 1 and Horizon 2 as captured on the slide. Specifically, by 2027, we expect to generate sustainable adjusted EBITDA of at least $1.45 billion, free cash flow of at least 5% of sales, and an economic spread that is at least 2% above our cost of capital. We expect our results will improve by $300 million to $350 million in 2027, which represents around a 30% increase from the 2024 EBITDA levels.

雖然現在還處於早期階段，但我們已經制定了初步的三年目標，涵蓋幻燈片中所示的跨越地平線 1 和地平線 2 的目標。具體來說，到 2027 年，我們預計將產生至少 14.5 億美元的可持續調整後 EBITDA，至少佔銷售額 5% 的自由現金流，以及至少比我們的資本成本高 2% 的經濟利差。我們預計 2027 年我們的業績將提高 3 億美元至 3.5 億美元，這比 2024 年 EBITDA 水準成長約 30%。

Let's now turn to page 6. While near-term performance is under pressure given sluggish market conditions, we are rapidly implementing our Fit to Win priorities in two phases. In Phase A, we are streamlining the organizational structure. In Phase B, we are reshaping the supply chain to enable profitable growth.

現在讓我們翻到第 6 頁。儘管由於市場環境低迷，近期業績面臨壓力，但我們正在分兩個階段快速實施「適合取勝」的優先事項。在A階段，我們正在精簡組織架構。在B階段，我們正在重塑供應鏈以實現獲利成長。

From these first steps, we expect to deliver at least $300 million in savings by 2027. We are making rapid progress and anticipate achieving at least $175 million in savings in 2025, which is 60% of our three-year target. Key milestones achieved in the past 90 days include three focus areas: reducing excess inventory, driving productivity, and reshaping SG&A.

透過這些第一步，我們預計到 2027 年將節省至少 3 億美元。我們正在快速取得進展，預計到 2025 年將節省至少 1.75 億美元，這是我們三年目標的 60%。過去 90 天內實現的關鍵里程碑包括三個重點領域：減少過剩庫存、提高生產力以及重塑 SG&A。

With regard to reducing inventory, we have cut 18% of our capacity in Q3, reducing IDS by 17% to 59 days with further improvement in quarter four to come. With regard to driving productivity, we are working to take out all redundant and low-profitability capacity.

在減少庫存方面，我們在第三季削減了18%的產能，並將IDS減少了17%至59天，第四季將進一步改善。在提高生產力方面，我們正在努力消除所有冗餘和低利潤產能。

Significantly increasing productivity is the cornerstone of the turnaround of the business. We are evaluating the closure of at least 7% of capacity by mid-2025 to reduce the fixed cost base of the network. The closure of unprofitable and redundant capacity should generate more than $100 million of annualized savings. As part of this evaluation, we have already announced the closure of approximately 4% of capacity, which should benefit 2025 results.

顯著提高生產力是企業轉虧為盈的基石。我們正在評估到 2025 年中期關閉至少 7% 的容量，以減少網路的固定成本基礎。關閉無利可圖和冗餘產能應能每年節省 1 億美元以上。作為本次評估的一部分，我們已經宣布關閉約 4% 的產能，這應該有利於 2025 年的業績。

With regard to reshaping the organization, we are moving to de-layer the structure, shift accountability to local markets, and reduce central operating costs significantly. These actions should reduce SG&A expense to no more than 5% of sales by early 2026, saving over $200 million on an annualized basis. The first steps are well underway with more than half of the targeted savings expected in 2025.

在組織重塑方面，我們正在努力去層次化結構，將責任轉移到當地市場，並大幅降低中央營運成本。這些行動應能在 2026 年初將 SG&A 費用減少至不超過銷售額的 5%，以年計算節省超過 2 億美元。第一步正在順利進行，預計到 2025 年將實現目標節約的一半以上。

Overall, initial Fit to Win actions should generate over $300 million in savings and underpin delivery of our 2027 EBITDA target. Additionally, in Phase B, we expect to generate additional value through total supply chain optimization by driving productivity across the fleet, closing high-cost operations, and transferring profitable volume into our remaining network.

總體而言，最初的「Fit to Win」行動應該會節省超過 3 億美元，並支持我們 2027 年 EBITDA 目標的實現。此外，在 B 階段，我們預計透過整體供應鏈優化，提高整個機隊的生產力，結束高成本運營，並將獲利量轉移到我們剩餘的網路中，從而產生額外的價值。

Efforts will also include procurement productivity, operational improvements, and a more disciplined sales force management. These new ways of working should deliver further savings and higher margins, helping us achieve our 2027 performance targets. We will provide more details on Phase B at our March 2025 Investor Day.

努力還將包括採購生產力、營運改善以及更嚴格的銷售團隊管理。這些新的工作方式應該可以帶來更多的節省和更高的利潤，幫助我們實現 2027 年的績效目標。我們將在 2025 年 3 月的投資者日提供有關 B 階段的更多詳細資訊。

Let's now turn to page 7 and discuss the commercial environment. As we quickly implement our Fit to Win priorities, we do see some green shoots in most geographies, evidenced by modest sales volume growth during the third quarter.

現在讓我們翻到第7頁，討論商業環境。隨著我們迅速實施「適合贏得勝利」的優先事項，我們確實在大多數地區看到了一些萌芽，第三季銷售的適度增長證明了這一點。

On the left, we have illustrated our volume trends. Following several quarters of lower demand, shipments increased by 2% in the quarter. Volumes in the Americas increased by 7%, with shipments rising across all geographies, including a double-digit increase in Brazil. All categories showed improvement, except for spirits, which continued to face challenges, particularly in North America.

在左側，我們展示了我們的銷售趨勢。經過幾季的需求下降後，本季出貨量增加了 2%。美洲的銷量成長了 7%，所有地區的出貨量都在成長，其中巴西的成長率達到兩位數。除烈酒外，所有類別均有所改善，但烈酒繼續面臨挑戰，尤其是在北美。

Shipments in Europe were down by 2%. However, we noted solid growth in Southeast Europe and in the UK, while shipments were down in Southwest Europe, given softer beer and wine demand, including slower export activity.

歐洲的出貨量下降了 2%。然而，我們注意到東南歐和英國的強勁成長，而西南部歐洲的出貨量下降，因為啤酒和葡萄酒需求疲軟，包括出口活動放緩。

Although market conditions remain uncertain, consumer demand trends seem to be slowly recovering as illustrated on the right. While all categories have shown improvement over the course of the year, consumption of beer, wine and spirits, and glass containers is still lower, while food and non-alcoholic beverages are up from prior year.

儘管市場狀況仍然不確定，但消費者需求趨勢似乎正在緩慢復甦，如右圖所示。儘管所有類別的消費量在這一年中均有所改善，但啤酒、葡萄酒和烈酒以及玻璃容器的消費量仍然較低，而食品和非酒精飲料的消費量則較上年有所增加。

Our shipments trends now align with consumption trends as destocking recedes in most categories, except for spirits. Rather than the modest U-shaped recovery we expected earlier in the year, actual trends indicate an L-shaped recovery given a more gradual improvement in consumer demand.

隨著大多數品類（烈酒除外）去庫存的減少，我們的出貨趨勢現在與消費趨勢一致。鑑於消費者需求的逐步改善，實際趨勢顯示 L 型復甦，而不是我們今年稍早預期的溫和 U 型復甦。

It has been a challenging year for O-I, along with the broader food and beverage marketplace to accurately forecast consumer trends given complex macro factors. In particular, there is considerable uncertainty and lack of clarity regarding the levels of in-home pantry stock and the rate at which it is depleting. This remains a significant unknown, particularly in the US.

對於 O-I 以及更廣泛的食品和飲料市場來說，今年對於在複雜的宏觀因素下準確預測消費者趨勢來說是充滿挑戰的一年。特別是，家庭食品儲藏室的庫存水準及其消耗速度存在相當大的不確定性和不明確性。這仍然是一個重大未知數，尤其是在美國。

To address these forecasting challenges, we are working more closely with customers on integrated business planning. We have also made targeted investments to improve our market understanding and predictive analytics capabilities. Over the balance of the year, we remain cautious and expect sales volumes to be about flat in the fourth quarter, with October shipments up 2% from last year on a same-day basis.

為了因應這些預測挑戰，我們正在與客戶就綜合業務規劃進行更密切的合作。我們也進行了有針對性的投資，以提高我們的市場理解和預測分析能力。在今年餘下的時間裡，我們保持謹慎態度，預計第四季度銷量將基本持平，10 月份出貨量較去年同期增長 2%。

Let's now turn to page 8. While we have navigated sluggish market conditions since mid-2023, we believe this is largely cyclical and demand will return, but more slowly than originally expected. The two charts on this page show the overall consumption trend by category for products and glass packaging. We have separated the trends between mainstream and premium products.

現在讓我們翻到第8頁。儘管我們自 2023 年中期以來一直在應對低迷的市場狀況，但我們認為這在很大程度上是週期性的，需求將會恢復，但速度比最初預期的要慢。本頁的兩張圖表按類別顯示了產品和玻璃包裝的整體消費趨勢。我們區分了主流產品和高端產品的趨勢。

Over time, glass demand is increasingly influenced by key megatrends such as health, wellness, sustainability, and premiumization. As you can see, the trend over the past 25 years is clear. Premium products tend to grow faster than most mainstream categories, even if at times, they are temporarily impacted by macroeconomic cycles or events.

隨著時間的推移，玻璃需求越來越受到健康、保健、永續發展和高端化等主要大趨勢的影響。正如您所看到的，過去 25 年的趨勢很明顯。高端產品往往比大多數主流類別成長得更快，即使有時它們會暫時受到宏觀經濟週期或事件的影響。

Further, the growth of premium products is expected to continue, supported by customer strategies and investments. As a result, we are confident that demand across mainstream categories will stabilize while stronger growth will reemerge across the premium categories in time. We are changing our operational and commercial focus to properly capitalize on this growth. Now, I'll turn you over to John, who will review financial matters.

此外，在客戶策略和投資的支持下，優質產品預計將繼續成長。因此，我們相信主流品類的需求將趨於穩定，而高端品類將及時重新出現更強勁的成長。我們正在改變我們的營運和商業重點，以適當地利用這種成長。現在，我將把你交給約翰，他將審查財務問題。

Thank you, Gordon, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin with our recent financial performance on page 9. O-I reported an adjusted loss of $0.04 per share in the third quarter, a significant decline from historically high adjusted earnings of $0.80 per share last year. This decrease was particularly -- was primarily due to higher operating costs as we curtailed 18% of our capacity to rebalance inventory levels in response to sluggish demand over the past several quarters.

謝謝戈登，大家早安。讓我們從第 9 頁的近期財務表現開始。O-I 公佈第三季調整後每股虧損 0.04 美元，較去年調整後每股 0.80 美元的歷史高點大幅下降。這一下降主要是由於營運成本上升，因為我們削減了 18% 的重新平衡庫存水準的能力，以應對過去幾個季度的需求疲軟。

Downtime impacted year-over-year results by about $0.65 per share, partially offset by strong operating and cost performance. Net price was also down, partially offset by 2% sales volume growth. While sales volume was softer than anticipated, net price was consistent with our expectations heading in the quarter and reflected price adjustments established at the beginning of the year as well as cost inflation, mostly in Latin America.

停機時間對每股業績的年比影響約為 0.65 美元，部分被強勁的營運和成本績效所抵消。淨價也有所下降，但被銷量成長 2% 部分抵銷。雖然銷量低於預期，但淨價與我們對本季度的預期一致，並反映了年初確定的價格調整以及成本通膨（主要是在拉丁美洲）。

The third quarter should be the lowest net price realization in 2024 and be less of a headwind in the fourth quarter. Non-operating items were a net headwind with higher interest expense and an elevated tax rate, more than offsetting the benefits of lower corporate retained costs.

第三季應該是 2024 年實現的最低淨價，且第四季的阻力較小。非經營項目是淨阻力，利息支出增加，稅率提高，遠遠抵銷了企業留存成本降低的好處。

Heading into the quarter, we expected flat to slightly positive earnings in the third quarter. Our operating performance was in line with these expectations as favorable cost performance mostly offset the impact of lower sales volume. Non-operating costs were about $0.05 higher than expected, primarily due to higher tax rate.

進入本季度，我們預計第三季的獲利持平或略為正值。我們的經營績效符合這些預期，因為良好的成本效益大部分抵銷了銷售下降的影響。非營運成本比預期高出約 0.05 美元，主要是由於稅率較高。

Turning to page 10, let's discuss the performance across our two segments. The Americas posted a segment operating profit of $88 million, down from $116 million last year. Net price negatively impacted results mostly due to the cost inflation across Latin America, while sales volume increased by 7%, as Gordon discussed.

翻到第 10 頁，讓我們討論一下這兩個部分的表現。美洲分部營業利潤為 8,800 萬美元，低於去年的 1.16 億美元。正如戈登所討論的，淨價格對業績產生負面影響主要是由於整個拉丁美洲的成本通膨，而銷量卻成長了 7%。

Additionally, we temporarily curtailed 15% of our capacity to reduce elevated inventory levels, which was up from prior year, resulting in higher operating costs. In Europe, segment operating profit totaled $56 million, a significant decrease from $185 million last year.

此外，我們暫時削減了 15% 的產能，以降低庫存水準（高於去年），導致營運成本上升。在歐洲，分部營業利潤總計 5,600 萬美元，較去年的 1.85 億美元大幅下降。

As expected, net price was a major headwind due to price adjustments earlier this year and as sales volume declined slightly. Operating costs were high as we temporarily curtailed 21% of our capacity to rapidly reduce inventory levels that had built up over the past several quarters, which was up significantly from prior year downtime levels.

正如預期的那樣，由於今年早些時候的價格調整和銷量略有下降，淨價成為主要阻力。營運成本很高，因為我們暫時削減了 21% 的產能，以迅速降低過去幾季累積的庫存水平，而庫存水準比去年的停機水準顯著上升。

Let's discuss our business outlook on page 11. We continue to recalibrate our full-year 2024 guidance due to softer-than-anticipated demand. Our prior guidance assumes sales volumes would be up mid-single digits in the second half of the year. Actual third-quarter volume was up 2%, and we now expect fourth-quarter sales volume will be about flat with prior year levels. As such, we have revised our annual sales volume outlook lower by 2% to 3%.

讓我們在第 11 頁討論我們的業務前景。由於需求低於預期，我們持續重新調整 2024 年全年指引。我們先前的指導假設下半年銷售將成長中個位數。第三季實際銷量成長了 2%，我們現在預計第四季銷量將與去年同期水準基本持平。因此，我們將年銷量預期下調了 2% 至 3%。

As shown on the left, we now expect full-year adjusted earnings to approximate $0.70 to $0.80 per share, down from our prior guidance of $1 to $1.25 per share. Lower full-year sales and production volume impacted our annual guidance by about $0.30 per share, which should be partially offset by about $0.05 of additional cost management actions. Lower earnings also drive a higher annual effective tax rate due to minimum tax withholdings and interest deductibility limitations in certain jurisdictions.

如左圖所示，我們現在預計全年調整後收益約為每股 0.70 美元至 0.80 美元，低於我們先前每股 1 美元至 1.25 美元的指引。全年銷售額和產量下降對我們的年度指引產生了每股約 0.30 美元的影響，這應該會被約 0.05 美元的額外成本管理措施所部分抵消。由於某些司法管轄區的最低預扣稅和利息扣除限制，較低的收入也會導致較高的年度有效稅率。

We have also adjusted our free cash flow guidance, which we now expect will be a use of cash between $130 million and $170 million. This sizable adjustment includes lower earnings due to softer shipments and additional cash payments related to incremental plant and SG&A restructuring as part of our Fit to Win actions.

我們也調整了自由現金流指引，目前預計現金使用量將在 1.3 億至 1.7 億美元之間。這項大幅調整包括由於出貨量疲軟而導致的收益下降，以及與增量工廠和銷售、一般管理費用重組相關的額外現金支付，這是我們「Fit to Win」行動的一部分。

However, the most significant change is due to higher working capital levels, with year-end IDS expected to be in the low-50s compared to our previous target of mid-40s due to softer-than-anticipated demand in the second half. IDS in the low-50s is still favorable compared to historic standards. Over time, we aim to further reduce IDS to enhance cash flow as we improve our end-to-end supply chain.

然而，最顯著的變化是由於營運資本水準提高，由於下半年需求低於預期，預計年終 IDS 將低於我們之前 40 左右的目標，預計將在 50 左右。與歷史標準相比，50 左右的 IDS 仍然有利。隨著時間的推移，我們的目標是進一步減少 IDS，以改善我們的端到端供應鏈，從而增強現金流。

As Gordon noted, we do not believe our 2024 performance is reflective of what the business can deliver. In particular, current year earnings and cash flow have been significantly impacted by temporary production curtailments and restructuring charges, among other factors, as detailed at the bottom of the chart. As such, O-I's underlying earnings power is stronger than current year results illustrate.

正如戈登所指出的那樣，我們認為 2024 年的業績並不能反映業務的交付能力。特別是，本年度的獲利和現金流量受到臨時減產和重組費用等因素的重大影響，如下圖底部所示。因此，O-I 的潛在獲利能力比今年的業績顯示的還要強。

Let's turn to page 12. 2024 has been a challenging year. However, we are taking proactive steps, which we believe will set the stage for stronger performance in 2025. As illustrated in the chart, we are providing an early view of the key business drivers that we anticipate will support improved results next year.

讓我們翻到第 12 頁。不過，我們正在採取積極措施，相信這將為 2025 年取得更強勁的業績奠定基礎。如圖表所示，我們提供了關鍵業務驅動因素的早期觀點，我們預計這些驅動因素將支持明年業績的改善。

We expect Fit to Win initiatives will boost adjusted earnings in 2025 by at least $175 million and results should benefit from some level of production normalization after significant inventory adjustments. Yet, we maintain a cautious outlook on commercial conditions until markets fully stabilize.

我們預計 Fit to Win 計劃將使 2025 年調整後收益增加至少 1.75 億美元，並且在重大庫存調整後，業績應會受益於一定程度的生產正常化。然而，在市場完全穩定之前，我們對商業狀況保持謹慎的展望。

We anticipate better free cash flow supported by higher earnings and lower capital expenditures as we adopt an economic profit approach to capital allocation. Finally, we expect lower financial leverage as earnings and cash flows rebound. The chart includes more details for your review. Now, I'll turn it back to Gordon on page 13.

由於我們採用經濟利潤法進行資本配置，我們預期更高的收益和更低的資本支出將帶來更好的自由現金流。最後，我們預期隨著獲利和現金流的反彈，財務槓桿將會降低。此圖表包含更多詳細資訊供您查看。現在，我將在第 13 頁將其轉回戈登。

To conclude, we are taking rapid decisive action to position the company for a solid recovery in 2025 and beyond. Our Fit to Win initiative is central to our strategy to improve our competitive position and enable future profitable growth. We are optimistic about the future and are determined to improve the value of O-I. Thank you and we are now ready to take your questions.

總而言之，我們正在採取迅速果斷的行動，以使公司在 2025 年及以後實現穩健復甦。我們的「Fit to Win」計畫是我們提高競爭地位和實現未來獲利成長策略的核心。我們對未來持樂觀態度，決心提升O-I的價值。謝謝您，我們現在準備回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

（操作員說明）Ghansham Panjabi，Baird。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everybody. I guess, first off, on the working capital being a much bigger negative than you initially projected, I think you said roughly $100 million more. Is it likely that you'll still have too much inventory as we sort of cycle into 2025? I think you just said that volumes are tracking a little bit lower than you forecast for the back half of the year. And I'm also trying to reconcile why you're expecting 4Q volumes to be flat when October was up a little bit.

謝謝你，接線生。大家早安。我想，首先，營運資金的負面影響比你最初預期的要大得多，我想你說的大約是 1 億美元。當我們進入 2025 年時，您是否可能仍然擁有過多的庫存？我想您剛剛說過，今年下半年的銷售量略低於您的預測。我還試圖解釋為什麼您預計第四季度銷量持平，而 10 月略有增長。

Yeah, Ghansham, I can talk about the working capital. Yeah, as I mentioned in the prepared comments, we were targeting kind of mid-year that we would get our IDS down to the mid-40s, which is at a historically low level for the business. Based upon what we're seeing with sales volumes being a bit softer and the fact that it's challenging to move our network that quickly, we are probably going to be in the low-50s. So a little bit of a delta there. And that's resulting in higher inventory at the end of the year, higher working capital, as you referenced.

是的，Ghansham，我可以談談營運資金。是的，正如我在準備好的評論中提到的，我們的目標是在年中將 IDS 降至 40 多歲，這對於業務來說處於歷史最低水平。根據我們所看到的銷售量有點疲軟以及快速移動我們的網路具有挑戰性的事實，我們可能會處於 50 左右的水平。所以那裡有一點三角洲。正如您所提到的，這導致年底庫存增加，營運資金增加。

As we stand here right now, there's about $125 million of that we are incurring in expense as we draw down inventories this year, meaning extra expense that we're taking because production is lower than the sales activity. We think that at least half of that or more will come back next year as we -- as the worst of the inventory destocking activity, internal destocking is done. But we will continue in all likelihood to do some drawdown of inventory. So the remaining component of that $125 million will be in a future period.

正如我們現在所站的，今年我們在減少庫存時產生了大約 1.25 億美元的費用，這意味著我們因產量低於銷售活動而承受額外費用。我們認為，明年至少有一半或更多會回來，因為我們——作為最糟糕的庫存去庫存活動，內部去庫存已經完成。但我們很可能會繼續減少庫存。因此，這 1.25 億美元的剩餘部分將用於未來一段時間。

Okay, got it. And then as it relates to pricing in Europe for 2025, what is the base case at this point? And I'm just asking because, obviously, you're doing a lot in terms of cost-outs and so on and so forth. But if you look at European margins for 2024, just assuming -- just your estimates for the fourth quarter, implied estimates for the fourth quarter, margins are basically back to pre-COVID levels. And so, are you assuming that you're going to get cost savings next year and that offsets incremental pricing on the downside or should we expect margins to build off of '24 specific to Europe?

好的，明白了。那麼，由於它涉及 2025 年歐洲的定價，目前的基本情況是什麼？我之所以這麼問，是因為顯然，你們在成本支出等方面做了很多工作。但如果你看看 2024 年歐洲的利潤率，假設——只是你對第四季度的估計，對第四季度的隱含估計，利潤率基本上回到了新冠疫情前的水平。那麼，您是否假設明年會節省成本，從而抵消增量定價帶來的負面影響，或者我們應該預期利潤率會在 24 世紀歐洲特定的基礎上增加？

I can take the last question first and then turn it over to Gordon on the volume and other questions is -- certainly our margins right now are in a suppressed level. Even as we mentioned before, we're at about 18% curtailment level in the third quarter. We'll probably be in that 16%, 17% still in the fourth quarter, okay? So we're going to be incurring an earnings penalty.

我可以先回答最後一個問題，然後將其轉交給戈登，關於數量和其他問題是——當然我們的利潤率現在處於受抑制的水平。正如我們之前提到的，第三季的削減水準約為 18%。第四季我們可能還會維持在 16%、17% 的水平，好嗎？因此，我們將遭受收入處罰。

That's pretty consistent with what we saw here in the third quarter. That, in effect, is suppressing the margins. We do believe that a more normalized segment profit margin of the mid-teens is probably a good next step for the business to tier up to. It will obviously be a little bit higher in Europe and a little bit lower in the Americas given the mix of business.

這與我們在第三季看到的情況非常一致。這實際上壓低了利潤率。我們確實相信，將部門利潤率提高到十幾歲左右可能是該業務提升的良好下一步。考慮到業務組合，歐洲的價格顯然會高一些，美洲的價格會低一些。

Yeah, hey, Ghansham. When we look at volume, I think we're sort of calling flat and it's almost a view of the two hemispheres. So if you look in the Americas, I would say that we were looking at flat to increases driven -- and then in Europe, I would say it would be flat to slightly down on volume, driven by the wine situation and also as big export markets like China and the US are suffering some softness. You could see spirits volumes maybe coming off a bit there.

是的，嘿，甘沙姆。當我們看體積時，我認為我們有點認為是平的，它幾乎是兩個半球的視圖。因此，如果你看看美洲，我會說我們看到的是持平到增長的驅動——然後在歐洲，我會說，受葡萄酒形勢和大出口的推動，銷量將持平到略有下降。美國等市場正遭受一些疲軟。你可以看到那裡的烈酒量可能會下降。

With regard to pricing, again, I think we're looking at a sort of flat situation, mainly probably in Europe. A bit of price pressure as there is probably more capacity there in the market, less so in -- less pricing pressure, I would imagine, in the Americas, given -- particularly in places like Brazil, where the capacity is fairly full across the region. You've got tighter capacity in North America, a bit more kind of free capacity in Europe, which may put pressure on some pricing.

關於定價，我認為我們正在考慮一種持平的情況，主要可能是在歐洲。價格壓力有點大，因為市場上可能有更多的產能，但我想，在美洲，定價壓力會更小，特別是在巴西這樣的地方，那裡的產能相當滿。北美的產能較為緊張，歐洲的空閒產能較多，可能會對某些定價造成壓力。

So we're looking as we look forward on flat. And then as we've laid out, we are taking very rapid action around the cost base of the business. And the net of all that is we see an improved outcome for the business going forward.

因此，我們正在尋找平坦的前景。然後，正如我們所闡述的，我們正在圍繞業務成本基礎採取非常迅速的行動。總而言之，我們看到未來業務的成果有所改善。

Perfect. Thank you so much.

完美的。太感謝了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

喬治‧斯塔福斯，美國銀行。

Yeah, hi, good morning. This is actually [Kashin] on for George this morning. So I guess with the capacity closures that you've done so far and those that you're considering for next year, I guess, where do you think you will be running in terms of utilization rate by the end of next year? And then, what could be the potential benefit from better operating leverage as a result of that?

是的，嗨，早安。這其實是今天早上喬治的[Kashin]。因此，我想，根據到目前為止你們已經完成的產能關閉以及明年考慮的產能關閉，我想，到明年年底，你們認為你們的利用率將達到什麼水平？那麼，由此帶來的更好的營運槓桿可能帶來什麼潛在好處呢？

Yeah, Kashin, thanks. We included in the slide -- so right now, at least across the year in 2024, we're looking at about 13% capacity curtailment, temporary capacity curtailment, to deal with, one, the softer sales volume, but also bringing down the inventories, okay? And so, if you take a look at that, more than half of that will be dealt with through permanent capacity closures. And that will give us $80 million next year, $100 million on a run rate basis.

是的，卡辛，謝謝。我們在幻燈片中提到了這一點——所以現在，至少在 2024 年全年，我們正在考慮削減約 13% 的產能，即臨時產能削減，以應對銷量疲軟的問題，同時也降低庫存，好嗎？因此，如果你看一下，其中一半以上將透過永久關閉產能來解決。這將為我們明年帶來 8,000 萬美元，以運轉率計算 1 億美元。

The remaining balance is due to continued temporary curtailment, of which that remaining balance, about half of it or more probably comes back to the business next year because we exit the worst of the destocking, while we still continue to anticipate some level of destocking. But that also gives us flexibility in the marketplace depending on how volumes trend and allows us to take advantage if there's a little bit better recovery. So 75% of it is going to be dealt with between capacity closures and some level of inventory management normalization.

剩餘餘額是由於持續的臨時削減造成的，其中大約一半或更多的剩餘餘額可能會在明年回到業務中，因為我們已經擺脫了去庫存最糟糕的時期，同時我們仍然預計會出現一定程度的去庫存。但這也為我們提供了市場靈活性，具體取決於銷售趨勢，並允許我們在復甦稍微好一點的情況下利用這一優勢。因此，其中 75% 將在產能關閉和一定程度的庫存管理正常化之間處理。

Got it, appreciate that. And then, I guess, in terms of the initial 2027 targets you put out in terms of EBITDA, I guess, what sort of volume growth are you underwriting for that? And I guess, what is the potential long-term volume growth of the business moving forward? And what gives you confidence in that regard?

明白了，感激不盡。然後，我想，就您提出的 2027 年 EBITDA 初始目標而言，我想您會為此承擔什麼樣的銷售成長？我猜，該業務未來的潛在長期銷售成長是多少？是什麼讓您對此充滿信心？

I'll address the first part of that. It's -- our assumptions right now are volume-neutral. Okay, right now, when we take a look at bridging from where we are today to where we think is the 1.45, that is not volume-contingent at all. It's volume -- it assumes volume neutrality.

我將討論第一部分。我們現在的假設與成交量無關。好吧，現在，當我們看看從今天的位置到我們認為的 1.45 的過渡時，這根本不取決於數量。這是成交量——它假設成交量是中性的。

And then with regard to sort of how the markets are going to evolve from a volume perspective, over the medium term and through the cycle, we, as we've seen in the charts there, we see mainstream glass stabilizing while premium glass will continue to grow consistently. We see many of our major customers driving this portfolio approach and investing behind it.

然後，關於市場將如何從數量角度演變，在中期和整個週期中，正如我們在圖表中看到的那樣，我們看到主流玻璃趨於穩定，而優質玻璃將繼續持續成長。我們看到我們的許多主要客戶都在推動這種投資組合方法並對其進行投資。

If we look at our own portfolio, it's split really between 80% commodity to mid-premium and 20% premium. And to play in that midstream more effectively, we need to get our cost base down. We need to be more competitive. And not just against glass, we need to close the gap to cans as well.

如果我們看看我們自己的投資組合，就會發現它實際上分為 80% 的大宗商品至中高端和 20% 的高端。為了更有效地發揮中流作用，我們需要降低成本基礎。我們需要更具競爭力。不僅是針對玻璃，我們還需要縮小與罐頭的差距。

As I said on our previous holding, the current gap between glass and cans is about 35%. And that's just too high. You will lose share. We're losing share to cans. And all the data we have suggests if we can get that cost premium between 15% and 17%, then you see a reverse flow from cans to glass.

正如我之前所持有的那樣，目前玻璃和罐頭之間的差距約為 35%。那太高了。你將失去份額。我們的市佔率正被罐頭奪走。我們掌握的所有數據都表明，如果我們能夠將成本溢價控制在 15% 到 17% 之間，那麼您就會看到從罐頭到玻璃的逆流。

So that's the reality, and we need to face up to that, and we need to get into it, and that's exactly what we're doing in terms of driving the competitiveness of the business across both the organizational structure and particularly across the total supply chain. And so, as you get that cost base down, be more competitive, not just against other glass competitors but against cans, that then underpins a cost base that also allows you to leverage into premium. And so, take advantage of that continued and consistent premium growth as we go forward.

這就是現實，我們需要正視這一點，我們需要深入其中，而這正是我們在整個組織結構，特別是整個供應鏈上提高企業競爭力方面所做的事情鏈。因此，當你降低成本基礎時，你就會變得更具競爭力，不僅是針對其他玻璃競爭對手，而且是針對罐頭，這將鞏固成本基礎，也讓你能夠利用溢價。因此，在我們前進的過程中，充分利用保費持續穩定的成長。

And so that's our approach. I think all the data supports that, the customer strategies, the customer investments behind premium, and then the opportunities we see to really get after a much lower cost base in the business underpins that approach. And that we feel will give us a better portfolio mix, a richer portfolio mix, with higher margins and better ROIC as we go forward.

這就是我們的方法。我認為所有數據都支持這一點，客戶策略、溢價背後的客戶投資，以及我們在業務成本基礎大幅降低後真正獲得的機會，都支撐了這種方法。我們認為，隨著我們的前進，這將為我們帶來更好的投資組合、更豐富的投資組合、更高的利潤率和更好的投資報酬率。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

阿倫‧維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Sorry about that, thanks for taking my question. I guess, first question would be, when you think about some of your bridge items, it looks like -- for EBITDA, would it be possible to potentially add in the $175 million Fit to Win benefits for '25 on top of, say, the lower end of your guidance, maybe [$1.1 billion]? And so, starting point could be kind of in that [$1.25 billion to $1.75 billion] range. What are some of the headwinds to that kind of math when you think about '25? Thanks.

抱歉，感謝您提出我的問題。我想，第一個問題是，當你考慮一些過渡項目時，對於 EBITDA，是否有可能在 25 年的基礎上添加 1.75 億美元的 Fit to Win 福利，比如說，也許是你指導的下限[11億美元]？因此，起點可能在 [12.5 億美元至 17.5 億美元]範圍內。當你想到「25」時，這種數學計算會遇到哪些阻力？謝謝。

Yeah, Arun, yeah. I think you're thinking about it right. I mean, we got a base this year that we shared. The [$175 million] is meant to be additive to it as well as some value, as I mentioned earlier, the normalization of the production because we're exiting the worst of the inventory destocking.

是的，阿倫，是的。我想你的想法是對的。我的意思是，今年我們有一個共享的基地。正如我之前提到的，[1.75 億美元] 旨在增加它以及一些價值，即生產正常化，因為我們正在擺脫最糟糕的庫存去庫存。

On page 12 of the materials, we have some of the puts and takes. You'll still do better and some of the interest will start to come down a little bit. You see normalization of tax rate as earnings get better.

在材料的第 12 頁上，我們有一些看跌期權。你仍然會做得更好，一些興趣也會開始下降。隨著收入的改善，您會看到稅率正常化。

Of course, we have the commercial elements that we identified there, either neutral to some slight headwind in sales volume, and then the negative net price that we flagged there. We don't believe that it will be a repeat of 2024, but there might be some pressure there.

當然，我們有我們在那裡確定的商業元素，要么是銷量中性到一些輕微的逆風，然後是我們在那裡標記的負淨價。我們認為 2024 年的情況不會重演，但可能會面臨一些壓力。

So hopefully, that gives you some of the moving parts. And certainly, while we're not looking to quantify all these levers today because it's too early, we certainly will fill in the blanks at the next year-end earnings call.

希望這能為您提供一些活動部分。當然，雖然我們今天不打算量化所有這些槓桿，因為現在還為時過早，但我們肯定會在下一次年終財報電話會議上填補空白。

Okay, thanks for that, John. And similarly, on the free cash flow bridge, so you went from a source of $75 million at the midpoint down to a use of $150 million, so kind of a $225 million swing there. So, when you think about free cash flow going forward, should you be free cash flow-positive in '25 or does this kind of slower inventory depletion, push that out a year or two into '26 or '27? How are you thinking about that as well? Thanks.

好的，謝謝你，約翰。同樣，在自由現金流橋上，從中點的 7,500 萬美元來源減少到 1.5 億美元的使用，相當於 2.25 億美元的波動。因此，當您考慮未來的自由現金流時，您是否應該在 25 年實現自由現金流為正，或者這種較慢的庫存消耗是否會將其推遲一兩年到 26 年或 27 年？你也這麼想嗎？謝謝。

Just to be clear, again, on page 12, we are indicating that we expect to be better free cash flow-positive next year, earnings improving as we just kind of had talked about, a lower CapEx level as we come off of some of the peak strategic spending that we've done over the last few years and take a more economic profit approach to how we look at some of -- even the maintenance spending in the business.

再次澄清，在第 12 頁，我們表示，我們預計明年的自由現金流將更好，正如我們剛剛談到的那樣，盈利會有所改善，隨著我們擺脫一些我們在過去幾年中完成了峰值策略支出，並採取更經濟利潤的方法來看待某些支出，甚至是業務中的維護支出。

And this whole working capital will normalize. Obviously, it's been a challenge with the level of production downtime and how that affects accounts payable, for example, even if we're making progress on the inventory level. So as production normalizes next year a little bit, you'll get an AP boost and you'll also have some inventory coming -- continue to coming out of the system even if we're carrying a level of temporary downtime.

整個營運資金將正常化。顯然，即使我們在庫存水準方面取得了進展，生產停機時間及其對應付帳款的影響也是一個挑戰。因此，隨著明年生產稍微正常化，您將獲得 AP 增長，並且您還將獲得一些庫存 - 即使我們有一定程度的臨時停機，也會繼續從系統中流出。

And, sorry, one more, if I could. On just CapEx, are you still pursuing -- what kind of MAGMA spending do you have in that CapEx number? Is there a way to potentially bring that CapEx down even further or does that encapsulate both MAGMA and any capital projects you have? Thanks.

抱歉，如果可以的話，再來一張。僅就資本支出而言，您是否仍在追求——在該資本支出數字中，MAGMA 的支出是多少？有沒有一種方法可以進一步降低資本支出，或者這是否可以囊括 MAGMA 和您擁有的任何資本項目？謝謝。

As we look to MAGMA, I mean, obviously, we've just started, as Gordon mentioned, just started production at the new Bowling Green facility. It's an important stage gate for us. I don't anticipate a lot or any MAGMA spending on CapEx next year until we get through that stage gate and understand next steps with that new technology. So yeah, as we're signaling there, CapEx will come down. It will probably -- it will be below the $500 million level.

當我們展望 MAGMA 時，我的意思是，顯然，正如戈登所提到的，我們剛開始在新的鮑靈格林工廠開始生產。這對我們來說是一個重要的舞台大門。在我們通過這一階段並了解新技術的後續步驟之前，我預計明年 MAGMA 不會在資本支出上投入太多或任何資金。所以，是的，正如我們所發出的信號，資本支出將會下降。它可能會低於 5 億美元的水平。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Gabe Hajde, Wells Fargo.

加布·哈吉德，富國銀行。

Hi, good morning guys. This is actually Richard Carlson in for Gabe. It's a very useful slide on slide 12, so I just want to ask a couple of questions there. So first on sales volume, it sounds like you talked about seeing some green shoots and maybe seeing some more signs of being positive, but you're cautious going into next year. So just want to get some of the puts and takes, what areas are you actually feeling more cautious about and what areas are you starting to get confident? And what could the shape of that look like for next year?

嗨，大家早安。這其實是理查卡爾森飾演的加布。第 12 張投影片非常有用，所以我只想問幾個問題。首先，關於銷量，聽起來您談到看到一些萌芽，也許會看到更多積極的跡象，但您對明年持謹慎態度。因此，我只想了解一些看法，您實際上對哪些領域感到更加謹慎以及您開始對哪些領域充滿信心？明年的情況會是什麼樣子？

And then my second question is going to be on net price because also, I guess, it looks like you're cautious going into the year. But at this point, what is your visibility into pricing for 2025? And what percentage of your contracts are already signed? And what could move that number a little bit as we get into the year? Thank you.

然後我的第二個問題將是關於淨價，因為我想，看起來你對今年持謹慎態度。但目前，您對 2025 年的定價有何看法？你們的合約已經簽了多少百分比？當我們進入今年時，什麼可以稍微改變這個數字呢？謝謝。

Yeah, with regard to sales volume, as I said earlier, as we look at the Americas, we look at demand, particularly in Latin America, strong. And also in North America, we see the trend probably flat to slightly up. With regard to Europe, obviously, spirits is a potential issue as you see softening markets in China, which is a big offtake market for European spirits brands, and also wine. And so we're -- as we look at those categories, we're cautious on the outlook in Europe.

是的，關於銷量，正如我之前所說，當我們觀察美洲時，我們會看到需求，特別是拉丁美洲的強勁需求。同樣在北美，我們看到趨勢可能持平或略有上升。就歐洲而言，顯然，烈酒是一個潛在問題，因為中國市場疲軟，而中國是歐洲烈酒品牌和葡萄酒的重要承購市場。因此，當我們審視這些類別時，我們對歐洲的前景持謹慎態度。

There is also some spirits pressure, obviously, in North America. So spirits, I think, and wine, as they have been year to date, will continue to be something we keep a watchful eye on. And that really is guiding our thinking around sales volume.

顯然，北美也存在一些烈酒壓力。因此，我認為，烈酒和葡萄酒，正如今年迄今為止一樣，將繼續成為我們密切關注的對象。這確實指導了我們對銷量的思考。

With regard to net price, again, as I said, capacities are pretty tight in Latin America and in North America. In Europe, with the softening volumes, a bit more capacity available in the market. Our assumption is that there would be some sort of pricing pressure there. And that -- they are the two main sort of drivers guiding our thinking on how we're looking about 2025.

至於淨價，如我所說，拉丁美洲和北美的產能相當緊張。在歐洲，隨著銷售量疲軟，市場上的可用產能增加。我們的假設是那裡會存在某種定價壓力。它們是指導我們思考如何展望 2025 年的兩個主要驅動因素。

And maybe, just to add on to that, you had asked about kind of how our contracts are positioned. About 55% of our business globally is under long-term agreements. That's about a third when you take a look over in Europe and the rest are open market, and it's about 70% when you take a look at the Americas.

也許，補充一點，你問過我們的合約是如何定位的。我們全球約 55% 的業務簽訂了長期協議。如果你看看歐洲，這個比例大約是三分之一，其餘的都是開放市場，如果你看看美洲，這個比例大約是 70%。

So those are all fairly stable. They will -- they all have price adjustment formulas, albeit there hasn't been a lot of inflation this year, so we're looking stable to a little bit of improvement there. And you talk about the timing and the visibility is the biggest open market negotiations we have are over in Europe, two-thirds of our business over there. That usually commences in the November time frame. So it's still early, and we'll keep you up to date as we understand the plan there.

所以這些都相當穩定。他們都會——他們都有價格調整公式，儘管今年沒有太多通貨膨脹，所以我們看起來穩定，會有一點點改善。你談到了時機和可見性，我們在歐洲進行的最大的公開市場談判，我們三分之二的業務都在那裡。這通常在 11 月的時間範圍內開始。所以現在還為時過早，我們會及時向您通報最新情況，因為我們了解那裡的計劃。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Josh Spector, UBS.

喬許‧斯佩克特，瑞銀集團。

Yeah, hi, good morning. I want to kind of follow up on the net price but maybe think a little bit more medium to longer term. So I guess, as you look at your Fit to Win and your longer-term goals of generating $300 million higher EBITDA from savings, how does net pricing play into that, understanding that there's some hedges that roll off in Europe? And when you talk about glass price competitiveness, how does all this square together, prices coming down to become more competitive and you guys growing EBITDA at the same time and your costs going up? So any thoughts there would be helpful.

是的，嗨，早安。我想對淨價進行跟進，但也許可以考慮更多中長期的情況。因此，我想，當您考慮「適合取勝」以及透過儲蓄增加 3 億美元 EBITDA 的長期目標時，淨定價如何發揮作用，並了解歐洲存在一些對沖措施？當您談論玻璃價格競爭力時，所有這些如何結合在一起，價格下降以變得更具競爭力，同時你們的 EBITDA 增長而成本上升？所以任何想法都會有幫助。

Yeah, as I said, we have a fairly focused program both on reshaping the organization structure, and the cost of doing business, and then how we operate across the value chain. And as we pointed out in the past, this is an end-to-end review of our value chain with a focus on squeezing out the waste and inefficiencies that are there, and then using that to increase earnings, increase cash flow, and being more competitive where we need to be on price in the market.

是的，正如我所說，我們有一個相當集中的計劃，既涉及重塑組織結構，又涉及開展業務的成本，以及我們如何在整個價值鏈上運作。正如我們過去指出的那樣，這是對我們價值鏈的端到端審查，重點是消除其中的浪費和低效率，然後利用它來增加收入、增加現金流，並我們需要在市場價格上更具競爭力。

And that then gives us that flexibility and that will depend on a number of different dynamics in the market at any given time. But our main focus, as we say, over the next three-year period, will be to really drive productivity and reshape the cost structure of the business that gets us into a much more competitive position.

這給了我們靈活性，這將取決於任何特定時間市場上的許多不同動態。但正如我們所說，在未來三年內，我們的主要重點將是真正提高生產力並重塑業務成本結構，使我們處於更具競爭力的地位。

There is growth in the market. We just haven't been able to access some of that growth because our cost base was too high. We're facing that reality and we're taking all and every measure that we need to make sure we're in a competitive position to take advantage of that growth.

市場有成長。我們只是無法獲得部分成長，因為我們的成本基礎太高了。我們正面臨這一現實，我們正在採取一切必要措施，以確保我們處於競爭地位，以利用這種成長。

If we look at our top 20, 25 customers around the world, all of them have growth planned, all of them. And so we need to position ourselves and be competitive that we can ride with our large customers as they develop their businesses and be the supplier of choice.

如果我們看看全球前 20、25 位客戶，他們都制定了成長計劃，所有的。因此，我們需要定位自己並保持競爭力，以便我們能夠與我們的大客戶一起發展業務並成為他們的首選供應商。

Joshua, I would add that if you go back to what Gordon was talking about during the prepared remarks, with Fit to Win, we have Phase A there, which is looking at $300 million of savings. That in and of itself, all else being equal, would bridge where we are right now to the range that we're talking about in 2027.

約書亞，我想補充一點，如果你回到戈登在準備好的講話中所說的內容，“Fit to Win”，我們已經有了 A 階段，預計將節省 3 億美元。在其他條件相同的情況下，就其本身而言，這將使我們現在所處的位置與我們所討論的 2027 年的範圍相連接。

But we also did indicate there's Phase B, which has more savings and opportunity associated with it. And if we do run into some headwinds, net price or energy, et cetera, we're targeting more savings. So we feel confident about the ability to achieve our target.

但我們也確實指出了 B 階段，它有更多的節省和與之相關的機會。如果我們確實遇到一些阻力，如淨價格或能源等，我們的目標是節省更多。因此，我們對實現目標的能力充滿信心。

Thanks, that's helpful. I guess, if I could just follow up on SG&A, I mean, it's a pretty big target in terms of what you're hoping to save overall. I mean, it looks like maybe a 20% reduction. I guess, if you look at benchmarking yourself versus peers, does that put you closer to peers? Would you be best-in-class? Or I guess, how do you determine that that's the right level that you should be operating with?

謝謝，這很有幫助。我想，如果我能跟進 SG&A，我的意思是，就您希望總體節省的金額而言，這是一個相當大的目標。我的意思是，看起來可能會減少 20%。我想，如果你將自己與同行進行比較，這是否會讓你更接近同行？你會成為班上最好的嗎？或者我猜，你如何確定這是你應該操作的正確等級？

Yeah, as we mentioned in July, our SG&A to revenue was running at about 8%. Many of our competitors are at 5% or below. So that obviously is an immediate benchmark. And that's one lens we took on it. The other lens we've taken it is looking at the portfolio. We have an 80% commodity to mid-premium portfolio. Therefore, we need a cost base that reflects that reality and reflects that world.

是的，正如我們在 7 月所提到的，我們的 SG&A 佔收入的比例約為 8%。我們的許多競爭對手的利潤率都在 5% 或以下。所以這顯然是一個直接的基準。這就是我們拍攝的一個鏡頭。我們採取的另一個鏡頭是專注於投資組合。我們擁有 80% 的商品至中高端投資組合。因此，我們需要一個反映現實和世界的成本基礎。

And so we looked at all of the activity and we asked ourselves, how does that support that or how does it subtract from it. And through that lens, we have made the adjustments that we feel are necessary to rightsize the cost base to support the strategy we have going forward.

因此，我們審視了所有的活動，並問自己，這些活動是如何支持這項活動的，或是如何從中減去的。透過這個視角，我們做出了我們認為必要的調整，以調整成本基礎，以支持我們未來的策略。

And really, there's anything we can't connect to a health and safety results, anything we can't connect to a customer and innovation result, and anything we can't connect to a better cost outcome and capability outcome is going to get challenged on whether it needs to exist in our business or not. So a very clear framework and a very clear set of benchmarks that have guided the decisions and we're very comfortable with the decisions we're -- we've made, and we're very comfortable with the speed at which we're taking action to reduce that cost base.

事實上，我們無法將任何事情與健康和安全結果聯繫起來，任何我們無法將其與客戶和創新結果聯繫起來的事情，以及任何我們無法將其與更好的成本結果和能力結果聯繫起來的事情都將受到挑戰是否需要它存在於我們的業務中。因此，有一個非常清晰的框架和一套非常清晰的基準來指導決策，我們對我們所做的決定非常滿意，而且我們對我們的速度非常滿意採取行動降低成本基礎。

One thing I would add there, we've taken action already. That accounts for about $120 million of the $200 million target on a run rate basis. That's 60% of the target that -- calendar-wise, we'll get -- we expect to get $100 million out of that next year because of the phase-in and things like that. But -- so we're already more than halfway actioned on the elements that drive that reduction. More work will be done over the course of 2025 as we look to have an exit run rate from 2025 of the full $200 million that we'll fully present at 2026.

我要補充的一件事是，我們已經採取了行動。以運行率計算，約佔 2 億美元目標中的 1.2 億美元。這是我們將實現的目標的 60%，由於分階段實施和類似的事情，我們預計明年將從中獲得 1 億美元。但是——所以我們已經在推動減少的因素上採取了一半以上的行動。2025 年我們將完成更多工作，因為我們希望從 2025 年起退出運行率達到 2 億美元，我們將在 2026 年全面提供。

Got it, thank you.

明白了，謝謝。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

安東尼佩蒂納裡，花旗銀行。

Hi, good morning. Gordon -- hey, I was wondering if you could talk about, maybe at a high level, the improvement in forecasting that you're looking to drive, what enables that and what gives you confidence you can kind of improve forecasting?

嗨，早安。戈登 - 嘿，我想知道您是否可以在較高的層面上談談您希望推動的預測改進，是什麼實現了這一目標，是什麼讓您有信心可以改進預測？

Yeah, so obviously, the whole COVID period saw a huge disruption in normal patterns of purchasing consumer behavior. And as you saw the sales lift through '21 and '22, nobody wanted to miss sales, so there were big sell-ins through the chain. I think what's -- as you come out the other side of that and customers and down through the chain distribution partners take a look at their -- or took a look at their inventories and saw that they were very high. Then you have the destocking period. And we're really kind of coming to the end of that sort of cycle.

是的，很明顯，在整個新冠疫情期間，消費者的正常購買行為模式發生了巨大的破壞。當你看到 21 和 22 年間的銷售成長時，沒有人想錯過銷售，因此整個連鎖店的銷售量很大。我認為，當你從另一邊出來時，客戶以及整個連鎖分銷合作夥伴會看看他們的庫存，或者看看他們的庫存，發現它們非常高。然後就是去庫存期。我們確實即將結束這種循環。

I think the big unknown is what is still in the pantries, and particularly around spirits. If you bring beer, wine, and spirits home, beer is consumed faster than wine, is consumed faster than spirits, yeah? And I think what has become clear is, how do you get line of sight all the way through to what's happening in the consumer sort of pantry,

我認為最大的未知數是食品儲藏室裡還有什麼，尤其是烈酒。如果你把啤酒、葡萄酒和烈酒帶回家，啤酒比葡萄酒消耗得更快，比烈酒消耗得更快，是嗎？我認為已經清楚的是，你如何才能看到消費者食品儲藏室中發生的事情，

And I think it's just sharpened everybody's focus on, how do you get visibility through what are very long distribution chains. I mean, if you take a look in the US, there are three levels to the chain before you get to the consumer. You take a look at travel retail, it's a massively long train that typically has been kind of hard-to-get visibility on where all the stock is in different parts of the world.

我認為這讓每個人都更加關注如何透過很長的分銷鏈獲得可見性。我的意思是，如果你看看美國，在到達消費者之前，整個鏈條分為三個層次。你看看旅遊零售業，它就像一列非常長的火車，通常很難了解世界不同地區的所有庫存。

So we've had those discussions with many of our major customers. We all recognize there's a way for us to share information, share data, share insights in a much more effective way. And we've agreed to do that with many customers.

因此，我們已經與許多主要客戶進行了這些討論。我們都認識到有一種方法可以讓我們以更有效的方式分享資訊、共享資料、共享見解。我們已經同意與許多客戶這樣做。

And also, we're investing in upskilling our own people, and also investing in some AI capability around forecasting, which, when coupled with the insights our own people bring, actually is giving us a much better result. So I think it sharpened everybody's focus around it. And yes, I see improvements going forward for sure.

此外，我們正在投資提高我們自己的員工的技能，並投資於一些圍繞預測的人工智慧能力，這與我們自己的員工帶來的見解相結合，實際上為我們帶來了更好的結果。所以我認為它增強了每個人對它的關注。是的，我確實看到了未來的進步。

And we're starting to see it in our own business. Our forecasts are getting tighter, not where we want them to be yet, but we're getting there. And certainly, when you -- and I've been with many, many customers over the last 100 days, it's a real focus for everybody.

我們開始在自己的業務中看到這一點。我們的預測越來越嚴格，雖然還沒有達到我們想要的程度，但我們正在實現這一目標。當然，當你和我在過去 100 天裡與很多很多客戶打交道時，這對每個人來說都是真正的焦點。

Got it, got it, that's very helpful. And then, just one quick follow-up, you talked about evaluating closure of, I think, 7% plus of capacity by middle of next year. I guess, at first glance, 7% plus looks like 7% or 8% or maybe 9%. But -- I mean, is there a possibility that you could have to close, or a meaningfully larger percentage, 10%, 15%? Just trying to frame that 7% or more, and then just kind of the contingency planning around that.

明白了，明白了，非常有幫助。然後，只是一個簡短的後續行動，您談到評估到明年年中關閉 7% 以上的產能。我猜，乍一看，7% 以上看起來像是 7% 或 8% 甚至 9%。但是——我的意思是，你是否有可能不得不關閉，或者一個有意義的更大的百分比，10%、15%？只是試圖框架 7% 或更多，然後圍繞它制定應急計劃。

Yeah, yeah, so, Anthony, I'll touch base on that. So keep in mind, we're looking at Phase A and Phase B. Phase A, the 7% plus, that's primarily looking at how we align supply with demand and deal with the overhang that we've been talking about. That's going to be partly closures and partly rebalancing against the inventory.

是的，是的，所以，安東尼，我會談談這一點。因此請記住，我們正在關注 A 階段和 B 階段。這將部分關閉，部分重新平衡庫存。

But with that, we're taking the opportunity as we look at economic profit to find those handful of furnaces and plants in the network that are low on their economic profit, negative on the economic profit, and try to align both of those together to be able to take out low profitability capacity with shoring up the supply and demand. But that's just Phase A phase. And that's really when we're talking about this kind of 7% plus.

但這樣一來，我們就抓住機會，在審視經濟利潤時，找到網路中那些經濟利潤較低、經濟利潤為負的少數熔爐和工廠，並嘗試將兩者結合起來，以實現經濟利潤的最大化。但這只是A階段。這確實是我們談論 7% 以上的情況。

But Phase B is more to what Gordon was talking about where, if we can find more productivity and unlock trapped capacity within our network, we can then shift our books of business into the best higher-performing plants, and that will either allow us to grow or more likely just take out that lower -- remaining lower profit redundant capacity. So there's two missions here. And I think there will probably be more as we get into Phase B, but that's not necessarily the same mission as we're doing in Phase A.

但B 階段更多的是戈登所說的，如果我們能夠找到更高的生產力並釋放我們網路中被困的產能，我們就可以將我們的業務轉移到最好的高性能工廠，這將使我們能夠成長或更可能只是剔除剩餘的較低利潤的冗餘產能。所以這裡有兩個任務。我認為當我們進入 B 階段時可能會有更多，但這不一定與我們在 A 階段所做的任務相同。

Yeah, and just as a bit of that, we mentioned in July that we had run some pilots on reasonably fit plants, and we've seen the opportunity to improve efficiency by anywhere between 10% and 15%, and we're getting after that. And so, as we go through each plant and we find ways to make it more efficient, then that gives us kind of optionality on whether we are then more competitive to go after growth volume or if there is -- if the volume is there, but it's not economically profitable, then we would take that capacity down. So the fitter we get, the more optionality we have to play as we go forward. But certainly, we -- any place we can't get a return, we will not be warehousing capacity.

是的，正如我們在 7 月提到的那樣，我們已經在相當合適的工廠上進行了一些試點，我們已經看到了將效率提高 10% 到 15% 的機會，並且我們正在追求那。因此，當我們檢查每個工廠並找到提高其效率的方法時，這給了我們一種選擇，即我們是否更有競爭力去追求增長量，或者是否有——如果增長量存在，但它在經濟上不有利可圖，那麼我們就會削減該產能。因此，我們越健康，前進時的選擇就越多。但可以肯定的是，我們——任何我們無法獲得退貨的地方，我們都不會提高倉儲能力。

Got it, got it. Thank you.

明白了，明白了。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Michael Roxland, Truist Securities.

（操作員指示）Michael Roxland，Truist 證券公司。

Yeah. Hi guys. This is actually Nicco Piccini for Mike Roxland. I guess just starting out back to the margin discussion, I think you mentioned mid-teens in total for the total company with obviously higher in Europe, lower in Americas has normalized as a next step. I'm just, I guess, curious, is that next step, like, '25 or after 2027? And the reason I ask is, one of your closest European peers posted, I think, 24% EBITDA margin, while you were lower than that. And I just was wondering why there's such a big delta, and if that can be overcome through Fit to Win.

是的。嗨，大家好。這實際上是 Mike Roxland 的 Nicco Piccini。我想剛開始回到利潤率討論，我想你提到了整個公司的利潤總額在十幾歲左右，下一步歐洲的利潤率明顯更高，美洲的利潤率更低，這已經正常化。我想，我只是好奇，下一步是 25 年還是 2027 年之後？我問的原因是，我認為你們最接近的歐洲同行之一發布了 24% 的 EBITDA 利潤率，而你們卻低於這個數字。我只是想知道為什麼會有如此大的增量，以及是否可以透過「適合獲勝」來克服這一點。

Yeah, so for one thing, when I was referring to the percentages, I was referring to segment profit. EBITDA is probably closer to high teens to 20% as far as what -- where we should achieve. I would say that is a medium-term target. Whether that's achieved next year or not, I think we really look at that when we get into the numbers at the end of the year.

是的，所以一方面，當我提到百分比時，我指的是部門利潤。就我們應該實現的目標而言，EBITDA 可能更接近 20%。我想說這是一個中期目標。無論明年能否實現這一目標，我認為當我們在年底查看數字時，我們會真正考慮這一點。

Looking at what we could achieve by 2027, I think it would point to the higher end of that range and kind of more of a return to where we were at last year, which is some of the highest levels of margins that we've seen in a number of years. And I think Gordon already hit on a couple of the differentials of a couple hundred basis points is just in SG&A alone. So not to mention a number of the competitiveness opportunities that we referred to throughout the discussion, so it's really a combination of both of those to try to move from where we are right now into a number and margins that are very competitive for the industry.

看看我們到 2027 年可以實現的目標，我認為這將指向該範圍的高端，並且更多地回歸到我們去年的水平，這是我們見過的最高利潤水平之一在幾年內。我認為戈登已經在 SG&A 方面發現了幾百個基點的差異。因此，更不用說我們在整個討論中提到的許多競爭機會了，所以這實際上是兩者的結合，試圖從我們現在的狀況轉向對行業來說非常有競爭力的數字和利潤。

And within the business from this plan, we've got very clear lines of sight on the productivity measures, where they are, how we get at them, and what they'll yield. So -- and there's a very disciplined program behind that to deliver on the numbers we set out from here between now and 2027.

在該計劃的業務範圍內，我們對生產力指標、它們的位置、我們如何實現它們以及它們將產生什麼有了非常清晰的認識。因此，這背後有一個非常嚴格的計劃，可以實現我們從現在到 2027 年設定的數字。

Got it, understood. I guess just then switching gears to curtailments and closures, does retrofitting MAGMA at the end of life for some of these furnaces either now or in the future? Does that come into play when deciding, I guess, where your closures are?

明白了，明白了。我想就在那時，在轉向削減和關閉方面，現在或將來是否會在某些熔爐的使用壽命結束時對 MAGMA 進行改造？我想，在決定你的關閉地點時，這會發揮作用嗎？

It can give us flexibility. Our focus on MAGMA at the moment is -- as we've mentioned, we've just gone live in Bowling Green in Kentucky and making sure that we deliver on the ability to deliver industrial scale. There's two hypotheses when you bring a new technology to market. One, does it work at industrial scale? And two, can you make the right return on it? So that's the real focus for MAGMA at the moment in the -- both the technical engineering and commercial teams.

它可以為我們帶來靈活性。我們目前對 MAGMA 的關注點是——正如我們所提到的，我們剛剛在肯塔基州的 Bowling Green 上線，並確保我們具備實現工業規模的能力。當您將新技術推向市場時，有兩種假設。第一，它在工業規模上有效嗎？第二，你能獲得正確的回報嗎？因此，這才是 MAGMA 目前真正關注的焦點——技術工程和商業團隊。

Even in the first few weeks, we're learning a lot. And as that plays through when we run that plant at industrial scale, there will be learnings for where best we can then leverage MAGMA going forward. So yes, it will be part of our arsenal as we look at how we configure the chain to best fit to the market to ensure we get the best returns. That's how we're thinking about it.

即使在最初幾週，我們也學到了很多。當我們以工業規模運作工廠時，隨著這一點的發揮，我們將學到如何最好地利用 MAGMA 繼續前進。所以，是的，當我們研究如何配置鏈條以最適合市場以確保我們獲得最佳回報時，它將成為我們武器庫的一部分。我們就是這麼想的。

Okay, thank you very much. I appreciate it.

好的，非常感謝。我很感激。

Thank you. There are no additional questions waiting at this time. So I'd like to pass it back to the management team for any closing remarks.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題等待。因此，我想將其轉交給管理團隊以供結束語。

Thanks, Bailey. Please note that this ends our traditional quarter call. Just two housekeeping items, first, please note that our year-end fourth-quarter call is scheduled for February 5, 2025. And then second, please mark your calendar for our Investor Day that's planned for March 14 at the Exchange in New York City. Remember, make it a safe, memorable moment by choosing glass. Thank you.

謝謝，貝利。請注意，我們傳統的季度電話會議到此結束。只是兩個內務事項，首先，請注意，我們的第四季年末電話會議定於 2025 年 2 月 5 日舉行。其次，請在您的日曆上標記計劃於 3 月 14 日在紐約交易所舉行的投資者日。請記住，選擇玻璃，讓它成為一個安全、難忘的時刻。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。