O-I Glass Inc (OI) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining the O-I Glass Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Lucy, and I'll be coordinating your call today. (Operator Instructions). It is now my pleasure to hand over to your host, Chris Manuel, Vice President of Investor Relations to begin. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Lucy, and welcome, everyone, to the O-I Glass Fourth Quarter and Year-end Conference Call. Our discussion today will be led by Gordon Hardie, our CEO; and John Haudrich, our CFO. Following prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A session. Presentation materials for this call are available on the company's website. Please review the safe harbor comments and disclosure of our use of non-GAAP financial measures included in those materials.

I'd now like to turn the call over to Gordon, who will start on Slide 3.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for your interest in O-I Glass. Today, we will review our full year and fourth quarter 2025 results. discuss recent business trends and provide an update on our strategic initiatives. We also outlined our 2026 outlook and progress towards our 2027 Investor Day targets. Before we begin, I want to recognize the dedication of the entire O-I team.

Our commitment and execution continue to strengthen our performance.

Last night, we reported full year adjusted earnings of $1.60 per share. supported by stable top line, adjusted earnings nearly doubled versus 2024 and free cash flow rebounded to $168 million. These results reflect meaningful progress against our strategic objectives and were in line with our most recent upgraded guidance. A key contributor was the continued outperformance of Fit to Win, which delivered $300 million of benefits in 2025 and more than offset ongoing macroeconomic pressures. We exited the year with positive momentum as fourth quarter adjusted earnings increased meaningfully versus the prior year period.

Looking ahead, we expect continued progress in 2026, including another strong year of Fit to Win execution even as market conditions remain challenging. We are reaffirming our 2027 Investor Day financial targets. Despite challenging end markets, we have increased our cumulative Fit to Win benefit target, reinforcing our confidence in achieving our 2027 adjusted EBITDA goal.

As a result, we expect to continue improving earnings, expanding economic profit, strengthening free cash flow and delivering sustainable long-term value for shareholders. John and I will provide more detail on recent performance and our outlook. Let's now turn to Page 4 to recap our strong full year 2025 results.

As you can see, our performance improved across our key financial metrics. We created an intrinsic value with economic spread expanding by 200 basis points, driven by stronger earnings, more disciplined capital allocation and continued network optimization. As intended, we maintained a stable top line. Average selling prices were steady, while favorable FX largely offset a decline in volumes. Our shipments and tons were down 2.5% and amid a 3% decline in consumer consumption.

A few insights to add. On a unit basis, our shipments were down only 1.5%, reflecting our deliberate shift towards lighter weight and smaller format bottles with strong margins. A major project start-up in Europe impacted shipments nearly 1%. And finally, we capitalized on emerging opportunities and pockets of growth as higher-value categories such as premium spirits, food, NABs and RTDs outperformed trends in mainstream beer and wine. So we shifted our mix about 1% towards a higher quality book of business.

Overall, we believe O-I maintained our modestly improved market share as we continue to upgrade our business portfolio.

Adjusted EBITDA increased 11% with margins expanding 220 basis points as Fit to Win benefits more than offset modest pressure from net price and volumes. Adjusted EPS nearly doubled, driven by stronger operating performance and a lower effective tax rate. Free cash flow improved by approximately $300 million, supported by higher adjusted earnings favourable working capital management and a 30% reduction in capital expenditures.

This improvement was achieved despite $128 million of restructuring payments, which are expected to taper after 2026. Finally, leverage improved by nearly 0.5times turn to 3.5times, and we remain on track to reach approximately 2.5times leverage by year-end 2027.

Stepping back, we continue to operate in a challenging environment as the value chain works through the long tail of post-COVID with normalization. Against this backdrop, we are taking a highly disciplined approach enhancing our portfolio, executing Fit to Win and maintaining rigorous capital allocation, which positions us well as markets eventually recover.

The common thread behind these results is execution. Particularly Fit to Win, which we will now discuss on Page 5. Fit to Win is a core value driver for our business. The effort continues to deliver significant cost reductions while optimizing our network and value chain. Cost discipline is not just defensive.

Our cost mindset and discipline strengthens our competitive position which is a critical engine to enable future profitable growth.

In 2025, Fit to Win delivered $300 million of savings, exceeding our original target of at least $250 million. Momentum remained strong in the fourth quarter, with benefits of approximately $80 million. For 2026, we expect at least $275 million of additional savings. Given this progress, we've increased our 3-year cumulative Fit to Win target to at least $750 million, up from $650 million. Let's discuss progress across the different phases of the initiative.

Phase A focused on SG&A streamlining and initial network optimization generated approximately $180 million of benefits in 2025. We expect an additional $135 million in 2026 and as we advance later-stage SG&A initiatives and finalized previously announced elimination of approximately 13% of excess capacity by mid-'26 with remaining actions primarily in Europe. Phase B, which targets the end-to-end value chain transformation delivered approximately $120 million of benefits in 2025, ahead of expectations. We anticipate at least $140 million of savings in 2026 as we progress through the rollout of total organization effectiveness across the plant network with full implementation expected by year-end.

We're also accelerating procurement and energy initiatives to drive incremental savings. Importantly, the upside opportunities in Phase B drove increased 2027 target. Overall, Fit to Win is delivering faster and stronger results than planned, notably in our Phase B project, and we remain fully committed to achieving our 2026 and updated 2027 target.

With that, I'll turn it over to John to review fourth quarter performance and our 2026 outlook, starting on Page 6.

Thank you, Gordon, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a review of our fourth quarter performance as Gordon has already covered full year 2025 results. O-I delivered a solid fourth quarter with higher adjusted earnings supported by a stable top line.

Net sales were approximately $1.5 billion and average selling prices were essentially flat, while favourable FX largely offset a mid-single-digit decline in volumes. Adjusted earnings rebounded meaningfully improving from a net loss in the prior year to $0.20 per share.

This improvement was driven by strong fit-to-win benefits, higher production levels and a lower effective tax rate, which more than offset modest net price pressure and softer volumes. Overall, we delivered another solid quarterly performance, reflecting disciplined execution, continued cost reduction and sustained momentum from our strategic initiatives.

Now let's turn to Page 7 to review segment operating profit. Momentum remained strong in the fourth quarter, with segment operating profit increasing 30% to $177 million in margins expanding 280 basis points. In the Americas segment operating profit rose 40%, driven by higher net price and continued fit-to-win benefits.

Volumes declined 10% and which was concentrated in beer and spirits, while other categories like food and NAV were more stable. Based on market data, about half of this decline was due to lower consumption given ongoing affordability challenges change in consumer behaviour affecting many markets and weather-related disruption in Brazil.

Evolving US trade and immigration policies also impacted consumption and drove inventory adjustments across the value chain in the US and Mexico, which also weighed on shipments.

Additionally, results benefited from a onetime $6 million insurance settlement related to a prior year event. In Europe, segment operating profit increased 8%, reflecting contributions from strategic initiatives and higher production following last year's inventory reductions.

Net price was a headwind and volumes declined 3.5%. Based on market data, consumption was down low single digits while shipments were also impacted by a shift in order patterns and other factors at a few customers. Shipments were stable or slightly higher in wine and food, while beer and spirits remain soft.

Trends were weaker in the UK and Italy, but stronger across other markets. Importantly, all actions to eliminate excess capacity are expected to be completed in the first half of 2026, materially improving Europe's operating trajectory.

Overall segment operating profit increased solidly, demonstrating disciplined execution and the continued success of our initiatives. Taken together, these trends inform our expectations for 2026, which I'll discuss on Page 8.

Looking ahead, we expect to build on our momentum and deliver improved results in 2026. The top line should be stable or modestly higher, supported by slightly better gross price and favourable FX and as sales volumes are expected to be flat or slightly down.

As markets gradually stabilize, we will continue to optimize our portfolio, including exiting unprofitable business to improve economic profit while maintaining or growing market share. We anticipate adjusted EBITDA of $1.25 billion to $1.3 billion, representing up to 7% growth versus 2025. This includes an estimated $150 million energy cost step-up as favourable European energy contracts expired at year-end.

Excluding this impact, adjusted EBITDA would increase by up to 22% and highlighting the strength of our underlying operating improvements. As Gordon noted, we expect to benefit from at least $275 million of incremental fit-to-win actions which should support improved performance despite modestly lower net price and flat or slower, slightly lower volumes.

We project adjusted EPS of $1.65 to $1.90, representing up to 19% growth, assuming a tax rate of 30% to 33%. Free cash flow is expected to approximate $200 million reflecting higher earnings, partially offset by slightly higher CapEx, which should approximate $450 million and about $150 million of restructuring cash costs, which should decline after 2026.

The first quarter will be our most challenging year-over-year comparison due to tariff prebuying, a onetime insurance recovery in the prior year and a seasonally higher tax rate. So volumes will likely be down mid- to high single digits, given tough comps and sluggish demand.

Over the balance of the year, results should improve as comparisons ease and fit-to-win benefits continue to ramp, particularly as European capacity actions and TO implementation progresses. Additional guidance details are included in the appendix.

I'll now turn it back to Gordon to discuss progress towards the 2027 targets and concluding remarks starting on Page 9.

Thanks, John. Reflecting on our solid momentum, we are reaffirming our 2027 Investor Day targets. As you can see, we are making solid progress across our key objectives. Adjusted EBITDA and margins are improving Fit to Win is accelerating. Free cash flow conversion is improving.

Our balance sheet continues to strengthen and our economic spread has rebounded. Importantly, the business is moving in the right direction across all dimensions.

Let's conclude on Page 10. In summary, we are making solid progress in building a stronger foundation for the future. While conditions remain challenging, we are focused on improving competitiveness and preparing for volume recovery beyond 2026. Importantly, Fit to Win is a new disciplined management system that drives consistent performance improvement regardless of market headwinds. As a result, margins and adjusted earnings are rising, free cash flow is improving, and our balance sheet continues to strengthen.

Most importantly, execution is strong and momentum is building.

Thank you for your continued support. We are now happy to take any questions.

(Operator Instructions) Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

Yes. Thanks, guys. Thanks, operator. Good morning, everybody. Gordon, just going back to the fourth quarter and the 10% volume decline in the Americas.

How much of that do you attribute towards just year-end inventory adjustments. Obviously, it was a very tough year for many of your end markets throughout 2025, and I assume there was a fair amount of clean out going into 2026. So just curious as to your thoughts. And then how are your volumes in the region performing thus far in 2026? I know you have a tough comp from what you mentioned in terms of the pre-buy, et cetera?

Yes. Thanks, Ghansham. We continue to see sort of inventory adjustment in North America, particularly in spirits and in beer, particularly on beer originating from Mexico, given some of the changes in consumer behavior. So we would say somewhere up to maybe half of that was an industry or inventory adjustments. So there are the 2 main drivers of that.

There was also a bit of destocking in wine, but I think we believe that's largely here. So the big areas have been beer and spirits. We continue to see fairly high stocks and spirits. I think the inventory to sales ratio is still running above the 1.7%, 1.8% which is historically high versus the long run average of about 1.3%. So it continues to be a challenge.

However, as we laid out our segment profit is -- continues to improve in the Americas as we drive fit to win, and that helps us overcome these kind of short-term inventory adjustments. We expect those to continue in the first quarter, given the high level of stock in North America. But we continue then on the other hand, to drive Fit to Win. And also egos pockets of growth across food, across NAB, particularly waters is particularly strong for us in North America. So yes.

That's how we see the first quarter in North America, Ghansham.

Got it. And then for -- as it relates to the expanded savings, 750 versus 650 plus before. Is that just a function of just the volumes being lower than you thought and so you're taking additional actions? And then just 1 final clarification on the energy headwind of $150 million for 2026. Is that just a one and done?

Will it just be specific to '26? Or will there be any sort of lingering impact 2027 onwards.

Yes. I'll take the first part. So would you take the energy question?

Yes. Let me just start with that one. On the energy side, yes, the $150 million energy reset is pretty much a kind of a one and done. The contracts that we had that were multiyear contracts that expired at the end of the year were rates before the Ukraine war with Russia. Russia war growth, Ukraine, I should say.

And then -- which were at low rates. Those expired at the 2025, we have since been basically layering in contracts and hedges over the course of the last year. So we're substantially contracted on our energy exposure in 2026 in Europe. So we're confident about the $150 million, which is substantially a price is below current TTF, but still a ramp-up from where we were in the past.

And Ghansham, with regard to the additional savings, it really is not because of the volume. I think we pointed out in earlier calls and particularly on Investor Day, 650 was the original target. And obviously, we had a bigger bucket to go after. As the savings came faster than planned, almost 50% of the savings in the first 15 months and the organization's ability to go after and execute those savings, then we're able to get after some of the stuff that we saw embedded but didn't have a clear line of sight to, say, a year ago. Now coming to fruition and being able to execute that.

That obviously helps offset the volume, but it's not because of the volume, so to speak. I think there are separate issues. But certainly, it's it underpins our confidence in delivering our 2027 number.

Okay, perfect, thanks for that.

Thanks, Ghansham.

George Stapfos, Bank of America.

Hi, good morning. This is Kyle Benvenuto stepping in for George. Regarding the flat to slightly down volume outlook, does this include the impact of exiting unprofitable business? Or is that excluded? And what is the volume impact associated with walking away from that business?

Yes, I would say, Kyle, yes, thanks for the question. The outlook for 2026 where we say flat to slightly down, does incorporate our mix management efforts which also includes our efforts to improve our premium and mix of business, grow market share in this area, but also exiting unprofitable negative EP business. So for example, if you go back to our Investor Day, over about a year ago or so. We had said that there is about 4% of our total volume that was deeply negative EP. And we wanted to address that.

We want to address it either by raising prices in those books of business or exiting them. And over this last year, we probably saw about a 1% movement in that book, and we expect to continue to ship away at that. And so yes, that is included in that outlook for the next year. So maybe there's another 1% or so type of movement as we continue to mix manage that.

And then just a follow-up, the Fit to Win was designed to lower your cost position and open up doors to new volume opportunities. Why wasn't that sufficient to retain this volume?

Yes. Well, what I might do if you look at the volumes, probably down 2.8% and might unpack some of that to give you maybe some insight as the ones off inside at year-end. But if you look at our total volume of about 2.8%, within that, there was directionally above 1% to 1.5%. And sort of share gain that translated into 1.5% volume. We also had some restocking in certain regions that probably added about another 1% to 1.5%.

And then on the minus side, we had some customer events where customers were managing their inventory, taking some capacity done in the short term. That was about a decline of about 1.5%. We mentioned a start-up of a fairly large capital project we have in the region that -- and maybe some furnish repairs we had during the year, that was above 1%. So when you net that off, that nets to about 2.5%, but within that. we had, we think, somewhere in the region about a 1.5% growth in volume.

And that was high-quality, high EP growth. So we are seeing growth start to come through, but it is being offset by other events in the market.

Yes. And to build on that, what I would say is we really wanted to take a very disciplined approach in the marketplace. If you take a look at, given the challenges in the macro environment, we held the top line study, which was exactly what we wanted to achieve. And you look at that, hey, net price was basically kind of flat in the marketplace. Volumes were down a couple of percent.

Given the context of the market, we think that that is good discipline in execution. And really, the concept of growing notwithstanding the mix management, everything that's going on right now is really kind of a horizon 2 effort that we're working on. We're building the system for that right now. And we're finding those pockets of growth, as Gordon alluded to in the commentary. We're starting to execute on them.

Some of them take time to be able to translate into actually demonstrated volumes and things like that. but we're working on things like design and innovation, leveraging our record in our industry high Net Promoter Score with our customers to find those opportunities for growth. But it's -- we're just starting that journey to start to leverage it to win as we go forward.

Yes. And just a bit on that, Kyle. I think we mentioned in our Investor Day and in subsequent calls that we really had mapped all of the categories and segments across all the markets in which we compete. We know have a very, very clear view on where the pockets of growth are where we have a right to win. And we are now adjusting or revamping our go-to-market model across all of our sales force in all of the markets.

And that's just starting to hit and be rolled out. And we're having some wins on that.

To give you an example, with a regional beer customer, where our expected growth would be somewhere in the mid- or mid- to high single digits this year. We're seeing other spirits customers in certain regions where we would expect again high to mid-single-digit growth this year. So it's starting to come through. But really, it will be towards the back half of the year and probably the last quarter of the year before we see that gain momentum and then into 2027.

As we look ahead for the year, we have the World Cup coming up where we would start to see inventories building kind of late April into May. We've got the 250 year celebration here in the US. We think that's going to have a kind of a positive impact. So we see it starting to build we spent the first kind of 15, 18 months on the back end of the business and getting POE right. Now there's a huge focus on getting the go to market, piece of the business, right, so we can execute on where we see these pockets of growth.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Josh Spector, UBS.

Hi, good morning, it's [Anojja Shah] sitting in for Josh. I wanted to ask about the cost savings target, not to take away from how impressive this performance has been, but you basically raised the cost savings target by $100 million, but kept the 2027 EBITDA the same. I assume that means that maybe your volumes are going to continue to offset. But is there anything else in there? Or what explains that -- do you reconcile that for us?

Yes, yes. This is John. I can touch base on that. Yes, the target of at least 1450 remains in place, right? So we're not limiting ourselves to 1450 at least 1450.

So we have increased a Fit to Win by $100 million that does help mitigate the uncertainty around the commercial environment. Of course, we are working to drive an improved commercial outlook for the business is just back to the last discussion. We are building this system to be able to grow. As we've always said, it's going to be a little bit more of a horizon 2 target to drive the top line growth. but we are making some room given the uncertainty in the continued prolonged affordability challenges out there in the marketplace.

And then in the past, you talked about working with customers and I guess, the whole supply chain to get better as an industry at forecasting demand. I think you had said that you were only about -- at a 50% success rate a while ago. Can you give us an update on that and maybe where you are now and any financial benefits you're seeing from that?

Sure. So when we kind of began the journey, it was running at about 50%. I am glad to report that as we move through 2025, that's jumped to about 68%, 69%. And with many of our customers at the most senior level, we've had discussions about the need to improve the supply chain efficiency. If I compare it to other industries, I think there's a big opportunity for our service working with customers and suppliers to strip out waste and inefficiency in the value chain.

And that's what we're focused on. I think when we last spoke, our new Chief Supply Officer, hadn't started, he has now begin or begun. And that's a key focus for him and his team is how do we cost on waste out of the supply chain and then share that with customers and suppliers with a view to growing volumes in the different categories. So we've made good progress, still a lot of work to go and still a lot of opportunity to take out over the next 18, 24 months in asia.

Great, thank you. I'll turn it over.

Mike Roxland, Truist.

Yeah, thank you, Gordon, John, Chris, and thanks for taking my questions. Congrats on all the progress. Gordon, I wanted to follow up with you. I just wanted to follow up with you, Gordon, some really interesting color in terms of mentioning where the pockets of growth are, where you have a right to win. And then you mentioned revamping the go-to-market model. So what are you doing differently?

And what are you trying to encourage the sales force to do differently to drive better volumes? And as you think about your portfolio, I know you mentioned you had some beer win, it sounds like you had a beer win or maybe some spirits wins that as well are going to hit this year. But as you think about a portfolio, are you willing to reorient maybe toward more growth markets like food and AVRs and maybe minimize beer, maybe minimize spirits, particularly given the elevated inventories that, that category has experienced?

Yes. I'll take the second piece first, Mike. So yes is the short answer in terms of reorienting the portfolio to higher growth and higher margin segments, such as non-alcoholic beverages, premium non-alcoholic beer, waters, juices, we're seeing significant growth opportunities, particularly in the Americas on that. Food is growing particularly in the southern half of Europe and in markets like Brazil and Mexico. And indeed here in North America.

So that's very much part of a focused strategy, and we're starting to see results come through.

With regard to the go-to-market model, I probably would have viewed the organization of the sales forces in the different markets to be somewhat traditional and probably hadn't changed over a period of 10 to 15 years. And we're bringing in much better sort of insights sharing those insights with the sales force and bringing kind of modern methods of sales management into the business. and equipping then our sales force with insights and opportunities by customer on how the customer can either improve their growth or improve their cost or both. And then a much more rigorous system of review and accountability, building from daily sales to weekly sales to monthly against targets and a much tighter cap management.

Now in many industries, this is all has, but this is -- this will be a big step forward for us in how we drive focus on performance. And yes, we have some fantastic insights and data in the business. It's now how do we turn those into opportunities for our customers. And we're already starting to see green shoots coming through in that system. It's early days and embedding it.

We should be well underway by end of the second quarter, and that system should be in place across all the markets. and functioning accordingly. We're also upgrading some of the commercial leadership in different markets. and bringing kind of better and best practices into the business. So that's a bit of flavour on that, Mike.

Happy to elaborate on any of that.

No, that's very helpful. But would it be fair to say that we have you're pursuing are going to lead you to that volume growth that you're targeting for 2028 and beyond, the 1% that you outlined at day right? It sounds like you're getting an earlier jump on doing these things, particularly given that you're bringing -- you brought the -- there's been a pull forward of your -- of the Fit to Win benefit? Essentially you're starting to get to move forward in a faster pace on commercialization, trying to -- the regulation and bring in business wins. Is that a fair assessment?

Correct. Yes, that's a fair assumption. And just add a bit of color to that. So the first area of focus really was on the supply chain and strengthening the supply chain, getting the cost down. And that's what really we've been focused on over the last 18 months.

And as we've made sort of faster progress than expected, that allows us to orient more focus to the front end of the business. It's very difficult to make moves on the back end and the front end at the same time, that risks all sorts of supply chain snafus and customer issues, and we were very deliberate in staging how we would do this.

So we got the back end in order in much better order. There's still a lot of opportunity there for us. And we did that faster than planned. and that allowed us then to switch the focus to the front end of the business, probably maybe six to nine months ahead of what we might have thought in the early days. So really, it is a sequencing thing that allowed us to go faster as we made faster progress on the back end.

Got it, very helpful. Thanks very much and good luck in '26.

All right, thanks Mike.

Arun Viswanathan, RBC.

Great, thanks for taking my question. Hope you guys are well. I guess first off, I just wanted to understand how the volume trajectory would progress through '26. So I think last year in the first half, you were up 2% to 4%. And then now you do face those tougher comps. And then the back half of '25, you were down. So should we expect kind of reversal of those trends in '26?

And if so, given that you would be exiting maybe at a positive rate, do you expect that positive volume growth to continue in '27?

Yes, Arun, thanks for the question, John here. Yes, you're basically spot on. The first quarter, as we had indicated, is going to be their toughest comp period. Our volumes are up between 4% and 5% last year. we believe that was substantially due to tariff prebuying.

So kind of -- you work off of that tougher comp. So that's where we said we're going to be down mid maybe even high single digits depending on the consumer. We transitioned in the second quarter to something is closer to flat. And that in the back half of the year, you're looking at low to mid-single-digit type of growth numbers against obviously, easier comps that we had over the next year. And yes, I think that this develops into a bit of commercial momentum.

And so we're looking to continue to try to improve the top line. Obviously, a little bit of help from the consumer will be good, and there's macros that need to be tested on the affordability side. But as we work through that on a macro basis, that could result in a tailwind down the road as markets recover and we get this engine that Gordon was talking about also fine-tuned.

Great. And then, the free cash flow, I think the guidance is somewhat in line with our expectations. Any opportunities there for upside I guess maybe it could come from maybe net price not being as negative. I don't know if that's one opportunity, but -- or working capital kind of harvesting a little bit more. Any opportunities there where you could see upside to that free cash flow?

Or how do you feel about that -- the level of guidance for '26?

Yes, yes. So clearly, the biggest lever is going to be on the EBITDA side, if we can perform on the top end of the range and get some of that higher and improved cost performance, we obviously we have $275 million. We're always aiming for more right, as we've delivered in the past. We're always aiming for more. So there's continued opportunities to work there.

I would also profile, as you mentioned, working capital. We do have efforts to continue to reduce inventory this next year. We have made a provision for additional receivables towards the end of the year as we're talking about the growth but we're also working on, for example, nonfinished good inventories, other things below the line that could generate additional cash. And so I think those are your biggest variables and we continue to work on the balance sheet, and we'll probably have another year of refinancing going on. So we'll look for opportunities to improve P&L and cash management there.

One other thing. You talked -- you asked about net price I do think price is probably less the moving piece on the gross price, but inflation if inflation continues to trend off, that might be an upside, but I think it's a little early to determine. Thanks.

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

Good morning. This is Brian Burgmeier on for Anthony. Maybe just kind of following up on Arun's question. Just considering the 1Q outlook, do you anticipate any curtailments kind of continuing into 1Q or 2Q? Or do you think those curtailments if they are going to be there, would kind of taper off throughout the year, considering your footprint actions are going to be. I think, wrapped up by midyear this year. Any detail on kind of the curtailment or operating rate would be helpful.

Yes. Let me step back and talk about capacity management. As you recall back in 2024, we had about 13% of the underutilized capacity, and that's what drove our program to eliminate the capacity, which we've been working on. That 13% in 2024 dropped to about 6% in 2025 primarily as we made progress on the Americas. It took us a little bit longer in Europe having complying with labor regulations.

So we expect that 6% to drop in 2026 as we complete that activity over in Europe. So that 6% maybe goes down to about 3% or so where we also have efforts to kind of reduce some inventory as I mentioned.

And that also that extra downtime actually provide some swing capacity for us, which is pretty important. So as markets recover, that you have the opportunity to take advantage on the upside. So we might be carrying a little bit of downtime, but we're getting into the short strokes there.

Got it. That makes a detail that makes a lot of sense. And then last question for me. You mentioned the pre-buy impact from tariffs maybe just as we start to get closer to the kind of lapping Liberation Day, are you seeing kind of stability or maybe even potentially a modest recovery in some of those impacted markets? I guess there's maybe still not the full clarity, some customers are looking for, but I'm not sure if it's been stabilizing throughout the year.

Yes. I think we are seeing some stabilization. And certainly, it's there's more certainty here than a year ago. And then we're seeing other sort of geopolitical moves with say, the UK, which is an important source market, obviously, for scotch, opening up agreements with India and with China. And depending on how quickly they come to action then that creates sort of opportunities for the scotch industry to export more to India and China and that obviously then has an impact on us.

Same thing with French spirits into China, particularly cognac and the higher-end wines and things like champagne. So those things help for sure. They weren't on the way there this time last year, they are now. And at least we're working with the certainty of the system that's there at the moment. So I think the big challenge in the US market is to increase consumer offtake and to drive down the inventories that are in the system. We are seeing customers make moves to change in marketing strategies and increasing their spend behind that, increasing promotions to drive that. So I would say the outlook is certainly more stable, and I would say probably more positive than it was this year last year, but all the uncertainty.

Thank you.

Francisco Ruiz, BNP Paribas.

Hi, good morning. Most of the questions one answer, but I have to -- first one is if you could give a little more detail on the European market, supply and demand dynamics. I mean you commented that mainly to forecasting supply will be in Europe. How do you expect the event to perform debt.

Yes. So happy to do that, Ruiz. So what we're seeing in Europe is well, let me step back. So in the Americas, we see capacity probably tighter and more aligned with demand and less sort of price pressure, I would say, in general, across the markets. There are some pockets where that doesn't hold.

But in general, I think capacity and demand is pretty tightly matched in the Americas.

With regard to Europe, there certainly is more spare capacity. We've obviously taken down what we feel is surplus to us. There has been some other capacity taken out across the market. But if you look at categories like wine in France and Spain, there's still significant overcapacity. And there is price pressure in those categories in those markets.

Also, in sort of mainstream lower equity kind of beer, we're seeing some capacity come on. But it certainly has tightened up significantly year-on-year, okay?

And I would say pricing has firmed up, whereas last year, you're probably looking at a situation of more overcapacity and therefore, more pressure on pricing. So again, I would say the situation has improved year-on-year. Obviously, our focus is on what we control, and we're taking the actions we've outlined, which should all be completed at the latest by the half year. and that would make our network pretty tight.

I would add, if you take a look at the trajectory of kind of net price performance, 2024 was kind of a reset year. 2025 was significantly better, and then we expect 2026 to be better than 2025, even though we're seeing a little bit of still net price pressure. So it's rateably getting better and normalizing.

And you see the significant uplift in Americas in 2025 and not so much in the EU, and that really is just a factor of timing. You can get to take actions in the Americas at a much swifter rate than in Europe, as you well know. But we've worked through that process diligently in a disciplined manner, and we're well down the path to executing on the kind of actions that drove the uplift in America or the Americas. We'll see those coming through now in Europe in 2026.

Okay. My second question is one of the drivers that you commented on your Capital Market Day, which is the move from can to glass, which mainly you highlighted this on a better improvement of your profitability. But now given the high cost of the raw material of the aluminium, it's making this way alone. I mean there are more opportunities for the companies to move that way. Are you seeing this driver already this year?

Or is it something that is still pending to be seen.

Yes. Look, we -- certainly in the categories in which we operate, we've seen a very big slowdown, particularly in North America of that switch. And if I take a look at the price cap, which I think we outlined at about 35% at ID, that is certainly with the movement in aluminium on paper anyway, to 10%, 12% mark. And historically, when it's been around that level, you see a shift over time from cans to glass, right? However, we're still focused on driving our own internal opportunities to reduce costs, and we're not going to stop there.

But yes, absolutely, it helps. There is can growth in Europe, but it tends to be in the categories where glass isn't either not highly represented or it's not fit for purpose for a specific channel, right? And there's growth in kind of CSDs and particularly energy drinks, which is nearly exclusively can -- and a lot of those consumption moments are in areas where you can't use gas, like concerts and beaches and stuff like that.

But we're -- in terms of cost gap to cans in Europe, we're in a very good position as well. So yes, so let's see what plays out this year in terms of draft cans. But again, certainly in a much better position than we were this time last year in that regard.

Okay, thank you very much.

Thank you.

Richard Carlson, Wells Fargo.

Good morning, guys. I'm sitting in for Gabe Hate today. Most of my questions have been asked, but I did want to ask. So inventory was up, looks like $20 million quarter-over-quarter. We normally would have expected it to be down by about that much.

So call it about a $40 million, $50 million delta there. Were you actually tracking ahead of your free cash flow guidance earlier in the quarter? It seems like maybe the surprise with some of the volume in Americas might have been to blame there. And then, I guess if so, does it set you up a little better to start 2026 since maybe some of the inventory build into Q1 is already done?

Yes. One thing I would say is when you take a look at those balance sheet numbers, there's a hell of a lot of FX flushing through there, okay? So on an FX-neutral basis, we were able to reduce inventory some last year. Now keep in mind, we did not achieve the IDS targets we were hoping to at the end of the year. We ended in 2024 57 IDS.

We were hoping to get that down to 50. We did not get there because of the softness in the back half of the year.

But to your point, that does set us up for continued progress to be made this next year. in 2026. So yes, we are anticipating and included in our guidance right now is us getting to that 50 days of IDS plus additional progress on nonfinished goods inventories, things like raw materials and machine parts and spare parts and things like that, that also can contribute some upside opportunities to cash as we go forward.

Understood. That's helpful. And John, also your quarterly cadence guidance is reflecting pretty well-balanced H1 versus H2. I think based on some of the volume comments you've made, I would have been surprised and also based on some of your peer commentary about most are expecting a stronger back half. So maybe can you help us reconcile some of that?

And then also, where is the World Cup contemplated in this? Or is that just representing potential upside?

I think it's more of a potential upside. I mean there's a lot of variables out there. Obviously, if we're talking about flat to slightly down volumes, there's not a lot of those event-specific things considered into the guidance right now. As we take a look at the reconciliations and things like that. Obviously, some of this has to do with prior year comps and where we were earnings-wise in the prior year.

We also are looking at the cadence of Fit to Win Obviously, we got a lot of activities here in the first half of the year, especially with Europe that will start to track into the second quarter. But again, if there is upsides in the markets and they recover, then that probably, as I mentioned, is not comprehended in the outlook that we have right now. So we're trying to be practical on our outlooks right now. and that includes the sales volumes at flat to down.

Got it. Thank you, guys. Best luck in Q1. Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you. We have no further questions at this time. So I'd like to hand back to Chris for closing remarks.

Thanks, Lucy. That concludes our earnings call. Please note that our first quarter call is currently scheduled for Wednesday, April 29. And remember, make it a memorable moment by choosing safe, sustainable glass. Thank you.

This concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.