諾威品牌 (NWL) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Newell Brand's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference call is being recorded. A live webcast of this call is available at ir.newellbrands.com.

早安，歡迎參加紐威品牌2025年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的電話會議正在錄音。本次電話會議的即時網路直播可在 ir.newellbrands.com 上觀看。

I'll now turn the call over to Joanne Freiberger, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Chief Communications Officer. Ms. Freiberger, you may begin.

現在我將把電話交給投資者關係高級副總裁兼首席傳播官喬安妮·弗雷伯格。弗萊伯格女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Newell Brands' third quarter 2025 earnings call. On the call with me today are Chris Peterson, our President and CEO; and Mark Erceg, our CFO.

謝謝你，米歇爾。各位早安，歡迎參加紐威品牌2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天和我一起通話的是我們的總裁兼執行長克里斯彼得森，以及我們的財務長馬克埃爾塞格。

Before we begin, I'd like to inform you that during today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results and outcomes may differ materially, and we undertake no obligation to update forward-looking statements. I refer you to the cautionary language and risk factors available in our earnings release our Form 10-K, Form 10-Q, and other SEC filings available on our Investor Relations website for a further discussion of the factors affecting forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我想告知各位，在今天的電話會議中，我們將發表一些前瞻性聲明，這些聲明涉及風險和不確定性。實際結果和預期可能與預期有重大差異，我們不承擔更新前瞻性聲明的義務。有關影響前瞻性陳述的因素的進一步討論，請參閱我們盈利報告、10-K 表格、10-Q 表格以及其他提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，其中包含警示性語言和風險因素。這些文件可在我們投資者關係網站上查閱。

Today's remarks will also refer to non-GAAP financial measures, including those referred to as normalized measures. We believe these non-GAAP measures are useful to investors although they should not be considered superior to the measures presented in accordance with GAAP. Explanations of these non-GAAP measures and reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures can be found in today's earnings release and tables that were furnished to the SEC.

今天的演講也將提及非GAAP財務指標，包括所謂的標準化指標。我們認為這些非GAAP指標對投資者是有用的，儘管它們不應被視為優於按照GAAP編制的指標。有關這些非GAAP指標的解釋以及GAAP指標與非GAAP指標之間的調節，請參閱今天發布的收益報告和提交給美國證券交易委員會的表格。

Thank you. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Chris.

謝謝。那麼，我就把電話交給克里斯了。

Thanks, Joanne. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. The third quarter macro environment for general merchandise categories remained exceptionally dynamic and challenging. Numerous new tariffs were announced by both the US and international markets, creating trade disruptions in affected categories.

謝謝你，喬安妮。各位早安，感謝各位的參與。第三季一般商品品類的宏觀環境依然異常多變且充滿挑戰。美國和國際市場都宣布了多項新的關稅，導致受影響類別的貿易中斷。

For perspective, we now anticipate Newell will incur $180 million in incremental cash tariff costs this year, which is up from our estimate of $155 million just two months ago. These trade disruptions have affected short-term consumer and retailer behavior. To respond to this, we employed a multifaceted plan. Specifically, we increased focus on productivity and overhead cost savings efforts.

為了便於理解，我們現在預計紐威今年將產生 1.8 億美元的額外現金關稅成本，高於我們兩個月前估計的 1.55 億美元。這些貿易中斷已經影響了消費者和零售商的短期行為。為了因應這種情況，我們採取了多管齊下的方案。具體而言，我們更加重視提高生產效率和降低營運成本。

We sold incremental distribution and promotions and tariff advantaged categories, and we took pricing actions where necessary to offset the tariff costs. While our team executed our plan well, it was not sufficient to offset the macro headwinds in the third quarter. Both core and net sales came in down 7%, which was below our expectations due in large part to 3 discrete macroeconomic-related factors namely lower retailer inventory levels, a slowdown in a couple of key international markets like Brazil, and lower consumer demand as we priced for tariffs more aggressively than competition in several categories. Combined, these three factors reduced third quarter sales by 4 to 5 points which, along with 2 to 3 points of category compression more than offset incremental tariff advantage business wins and a strong innovation program.

我們透過增加分銷管道、促銷活動和享受關稅優惠的類別進行銷售，並在必要時採取價格措施來抵消關稅成本。雖然我們的團隊很好地執行了計劃，但這不足以抵消第三季度宏觀經濟的不利因素。核心銷售和淨銷售額均下降了 7%，低於我們的預期，這主要是由於 3 個與宏觀經濟相關的因素，即零售商庫存水準下降、巴西等幾個主要國際市場增速放緩，以及由於我們在幾個類別中對關稅採取了比競爭對手更積極的定價策略，導致消費者需求下降。這三個因素加在一起，導致第三季度銷售額下降了 4 到 5 個百分點，再加上品類壓縮 2 到 3 個百分點，抵消了關稅優勢帶來的業務增長和強有力的創新計劃。

The good news is that our consumer-driven product and consumer innovation programs are getting stronger every day, and starting with fourth quarter and extending throughout 2026, net distribution gains are expected to exceed distribution losses. This stands in stark contrast to the three discrete macroeconomic factors that weighed on our business during the third quarter, which we believe will be short-lived.

好消息是，我們以消費者為導向的產品和消費者創新計劃正在日益壯大，預計從第四季度開始，一直到 2026 年，淨分銷收益將超過分銷損失。這與第三季對我們業務造成壓力的三個獨立的宏觀經濟因素形成了鮮明對比，我們認為這些因素的影響是短暫的。

For example, our market intelligence suggests that the retailer inventory adjustment we experienced during the third quarter was largely onetime in nature, as higher inventory values due to tariffs were absorbed by the market and several large retailers shifted their business from direct import to domestic delivery. Relative to our international business, which accounts for roughly 40% of our total sales, we expect a return to growth during the fourth quarter after heightened macroeconomic and political instability caused a slowdown in Brazil and Argentina, both top 10 international markets renewal.

例如，我們的市場情報顯示，我們在第三季度經歷的零售商庫存調整在很大程度上是一次性的，因為關稅導致的較高庫存價值被市場吸收，而且幾家大型零售商將其業務從直接進口轉向國內配送。相對於我們佔總銷售額約 40% 的國際業務而言，我們預計在第四季度將恢復成長，此前宏觀經濟和政治不穩定加劇導致巴西和阿根廷（均為前十大國際市場復甦）的成長放緩。

This slowdown interrupted six consecutive quarters of international core sales growth. Finally, competitive pricing actions have begun to manifest themselves across several key businesses like Writing, where we have a strong domestic manufacturing presence. As more pricing hits the market in categories where we are tariff advantaged, we expect the amount of incremental business wins we secured to continue to increase. For these reasons, we remain confident that Newell's turnaround is on track and that the actions we are taking position us well to return to top-line growth in the future.

這項成長放緩中斷了國際核心銷售連續六個季度的成長。最後，競爭性定價措施已開始在幾個關鍵業務領域顯現出來，例如寫作領域，我們在國內製造業方面擁有強大的實力。隨著更多具有關稅優勢的品類的價格進入市場，我們預期我們所獲得的新增業務量將持續增加。基於以上原因，我們仍然相信紐維爾的復甦正在按計劃進行，我們正在採取的措施使我們能夠在未來恢復營收成長。

Let's now turn to our three business segments, starting with learning and development. Writing held its own during a back-to-school season that all-in was roughly flat. Overall, we performed well with retail partners that prioritized and featured branded products while isolated customers that shifted emphasis to private label alternatives experienced weaker sell-through. That said, we did expect stronger results because we anticipated competitors would take pricing prior to replenishment orders being placed and shipped. Instead, competitors waited until after the back-to-school season had ended to implement meaningful increases, which we are now seeing in October reflected at shelf.

現在讓我們來看看我們的三個業務板塊，首先是學習與發展。在整體較為穩定的返校季，寫作課的表現仍可圈可點。整體而言，我們與那些優先考慮並主推品牌產品的零售合作夥伴合作表現良好，而那些將重點轉向自有品牌替代品的個別客戶則銷售情況較差。也就是說，我們原本預期會有更強勁的業績，因為我們預期競爭對手會在補貨訂單下達和出貨之前進行定價。相反，競爭對手等到返校季結束後才實施實質的漲價，我們現在在 10 月的貨架上看到了這種漲價的跡象。

Looking forward and on the heels of recent product successes, such as Sharpe creative markers and Expo dry and wet arrays, the 2026 writing innovation program remains very strong.

展望未來，憑藉夏普創意馬克筆和Expo乾濕兩用系列等近期產品的成功，2026年書寫創新計畫依然非常強勁。

In addition, points of distribution will be considerably higher after a major retailer completes a total shelf reset this month and competitors who, unlike us, don't have strong domestic manufacturing capabilities raise prices. For these reasons, we feel very good about where we are headed with our Writing business. In Baby, we proactively took three rounds of pricing to offset inflation and tariffs. Competitors largely followed and due to the strength of our Graco innovation program, we continued to gain market share despite leading pricing higher in the category.

此外，在一家大型零售商本月完成全面貨架調整後，分銷點將大幅增加，而與我們不同，沒有強大國內生產能力的競爭對手將會提高價格。基於以上原因，我們對寫作業務的發展方向感到非常樂觀。在嬰兒用品領域，我們主動進行了三輪定價，以抵消通貨膨脹和關稅的影響。競爭對手大多紛紛效仿，而由於 Graco 創新計劃的強大實力，儘管我們的定價在同類產品中處於領先地位，我們仍然不斷擴大市場份額。

As we indicated last quarter, the baby business was temporarily affected in the third quarter by a large retailer's decision to shift from direct import shipments to domestic fulfillment. Looking ahead, we have an exciting 2026 innovation pipeline for baby, so this business is also trending well.

正如我們上個季度所指出的，由於一家大型零售商決定從直接進口發貨轉向國內發貨，嬰兒用品業務在第三季度受到了暫時的影響。展望未來，我們為嬰兒用品製定了令人興奮的 2026 年創新計劃，因此這項業務的發展趨勢也很好。

Turning to the Home and Commercial segment and starting with Kitchen, we have been proactively pricing throughout the year to offset tariffs and protect margins, but several competitors did not immediately follow. As a result, we took the decision late in the third quarter to increase promotional activity to restore price competitiveness which will put near-term pressure on sales and margins as the broader market adjusts to higher sourcing cost and small kitchen appliances from Southeast Asia. Kitchen was also impacted by macro softness in Brazil and Argentina, where Oster is the market leader, which we expect to be transitory.

轉向家庭和商業領域，從廚房用品開始，我們全年都在積極進行定價，以抵消關稅並保護利潤，但一些競爭對手並沒有立即跟進。因此，我們在第三季末決定加大促銷力度，以恢復價格競爭力。由於整個市場都在調整以適應更高的採購成本和來自東南亞的小廚房電器，這將在短期內給銷售額和利潤率帶來壓力。廚房用品也受到巴西和阿根廷宏觀經濟疲軟的影響，Oster 是這兩個市場的領導者，我們預期這種情況只是暫時的。

In Home Fragrance, Q3 core sales were below expectations as some retail partners use the timing of the Yankee Candle brand restage to destock by liquidating older products before placing new orders. That said, where shelves have been reset with the new assortment, consumer demand has been strong validating the direction of the relaunch. We remain confident that the restage will bring a return to growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 and for the full year 2026 as shelves are now largely reset and full A&P launch support is initiated. The commercial business, which is anchored by the Rubbermaid Commercial Products brand continues to perform well across the institutional and hospitality verticals where demand has been consistent. However, in the third quarter, the strength was more than offset by continued DIY softness where store traffic remains below prior year levels.

在家居香氛方面，第三季核心銷售低於預期，因為一些零售合作夥伴利用 Yankee Candle 品牌重新定位的時機，在下新訂單之前清倉舊產品以減少庫存。也就是說，在貨架重新擺放了新商品後，消費者需求強勁，驗證了重新推出的方向是正確的。我們仍然相信，隨著貨架基本重新擺放，並且全面啟動廣告和促銷活動，此次重新佈局將在 2025 年第四季和 2026 年全年帶來成長。以 Rubbermaid Commercial Products 品牌為核心的商業業務在機構和酒店等垂直領域繼續表現良好，這些領域的需求一直保持穩定。然而，第三季度，DIY產業的持續疲軟抵消了這一成長勢頭，門市客流量仍低於去年同期水準。

Despite near-term top line challenges, the Home and Commercial team continues to execute our simplification plan, driving cost efficiencies and positioning the segment for profit improvement as demand stabilizes.

儘管短期內營收面臨挑戰，但家居和商業團隊將繼續執行我們的簡化計劃，提高成本效益，並在需求穩定後為該業務板塊的利潤增長做好準備。

Finally, the Outdoor & Recreation business has started to turn the corner with third quarter sales being essentially flat with last year. Simplification efforts, tighter inventory management and portfolio pruning are all delivering tangible improvement and perhaps most importantly, we have a strong innovation lineup in place for 2026 that we are very excited about. We believe this business is on track to return to top-line growth next year. Mark will go into more detail shortly, but before doing that, I would like to call out a few things from a total company standpoint that were particularly notable in the third quarter and share some high-level thoughts on our updated guidance for the year.

最後，戶外休閒用品業務開始好轉，第三季銷售額與去年同期基本持平。簡化流程、加強庫存管理和精簡產品組合都帶來了切實的改進，最重要的是，我們為 2026 年制定了強大的創新計劃，我們對此感到非常興奮。我們相信，這項業務明年將恢復營收成長。Mark 稍後會詳細介紹，但在那之前，我想從公司整體的角度指出第三季度一些特別值得注意的事情，並分享一些關於我們更新後的年度業績指引的高層想法。

First, excluding the impact of the 125% China tariffs, which we called out last quarter, normalized gross margin would have expanded by 40 basis points in the third quarter versus a year ago. Second, normalized overhead as a percent of sales declined approximately 120 basis points year over year, the first reduction in three years as we realize savings from our realignment plan and technology investments. Third, advertising and promotion spending reached its highest rate as a percent of sales in nearly a decade, reflecting our commitment to invest in brand building and innovation even in a soft demand environment. Fourth, Newell's balance sheet remained solid. Net debt ended the quarter at $4.5 billion, down from the prior year, and our leverage ratio dropped by 20 basis points versus the second quarter.

首先，如果不計入我們上個季度提到的 125% 中國關稅的影響，第三季的正常毛利率將比去年同期增加 40 個基點。其次，經調整後的管理費用佔銷售額的百分比同比下降了約 120 個基點，這是三年來的首次下降，因為我們從重組計劃和技術投資中實現了節約。第三，廣告和促銷支出佔銷售額的比例達到了近十年來的最高水平，這反映出即使在需求疲軟的環境下，我們也致力於投資品牌建立和創新。第四，紐維爾的資產負債表依然穩健。本季末淨負債為 45 億美元，低於去年同期水準；槓桿率較第二季下降 20 個基點。

These proof points demonstrate that the fundamental structural economics of the company are much stronger today than before the transformation started. From a guidance standpoint, we are taking a more conservative view of consumer demand for the fourth quarter we now expect our categories in aggregate to be down about 3%. We continue to expect sequential improvement in normalized profitability in the fourth quarter as we continue to drive productivity gains, disciplined overhead management and pricing actions that protect structural margins. We also expect cash flow to strengthen sequentially as tariff-related costs subside and working capital improves. In closing, while near-term demand remains uneven, our strategy is working and our teams are executing with focus, agility and discipline.

這些證據表明，公司如今的基本結構經濟狀況比轉型開始前好得多。從業績指引的角度來看，我們對第四季的消費者需求持較保守的看法，目前預計各品類整體將下降約 3%。我們預計第四季度正常化獲利能力將持續改善，因為我們將繼續提高生產力，嚴格控制營運成本，並採取定價措施來保護結構性利潤率。我們也預計，隨著關稅相關成本下降和營運資金改善，現金流將逐週增強。最後，雖然短期需求仍然不穩定，但我們的策略正在奏效，我們的團隊正在以專注、敏捷和自律的態度執行策略。

I want to thank all of our Newell employees around the world for their continued resilience and execution in what remains a complex environment. Their focus and dedication make our progress possible.

我要感謝全球所有紐威員工，感謝他們在依然複雜的環境中展現出的持續韌性和執行力。他們的專注和奉獻精神使我們所取得的進步成為可能。

With that, I'll turn it over to Mark to walk through the financial results and provide additional detail on our performance and outlook.

接下來，我將把發言權交給馬克，讓他來詳細介紹財務業績，並提供有關我們業績和前景的更多細節。

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. Third-quarter net sales were down 7.2% and core sales declined 7.4%, with the difference mainly driven by favorable foreign exchange. Normalized gross margin was 34.5%, down 90 basis points year-over-year as the positive impact from gross productivity and pricing was more than offset by headwinds from incremental tariff costs, inflation and volume declines. Excluding onetime incremental 125% China tariff costs of about $24 million, which we called out during our Q2 call, Q3 normalized gross margin would have expanded by 40 basis points year over year.

謝謝你，克里斯。各位早安。第三季淨銷售額下降 7.2%，核心銷售額下降 7.4%，主要原因是匯率有利。經調整後的毛利率為 34.5%，較去年同期下降 90 個基點，原因是毛生產力和定價的正面影響被關稅成本增加、通貨膨脹和銷售下降等不利因素抵消。如果排除我們在第二季電話會議上提到的約 2,400 萬美元的一次性新增 125% 中國關稅成本，第三季正常化毛利率將年增 40 個基點。

Normalized operating margin was 8.9%, which was down 60 basis points versus last year as a 120 basis point improvement in normalized overheads was more than offset by the previously mentioned reduction in gross margin and an 80 basis point increase in advertising and promotion dollars. Excluding the impact of 125% China tariffs, Q3 normalized operating margin would have expanded by 80 basis points to 10.3% in the third quarter versus a year ago.

調整後的營業利潤率為 8.9%，比去年下降了 60 個基點，原因是經調整後的管理費用改善了 120 個基點，但被前面提到的毛利率下降以及廣告和促銷費用增加 80 個基點所抵消。如果排除 125% 中國關稅的影響，第三季正常化營業利潤率將比去年同期成長 80 個基點，達到 10.3%。

While Chris mentioned this earlier, it bears repeating. From this point, going forward, we expect overheads as a percent of sales to continue declining over the next several quarters as efficiency work compounds and productivity-enhancing AI-based tools are widely leveraged across the company.

雖然克里斯之前已經提到過這一點，但值得再次強調。從現在開始，我們預計未來幾個季度，隨著效率提升工作的不斷推進以及提高生產力的 AI 工具在公司範圍內的廣泛應用，管理費用佔銷售額的百分比將繼續下降。

Net interest expense of $83 million was up $8 million versus last year a normalized income tax provision of $6 million with an effective tax rate of 7.9% was recorded in Q3. This resulted in normalized diluted earnings per share of $0.17 and which was within the guidance range provided 3 months ago and slightly ahead of last year. Importantly, we were able to achieve this despite incurring about $55 million of net tariff P&L expense or approximately $0.11 per share in the third quarter. Year-to-date operating cash flow was $103 million versus $346 million last year. And given the importance of cash, let's take a few moments to fully unpack this situation.

淨利息支出為 8,300 萬美元，比去年同期增加 800 萬美元；第三季確認了 600 萬美元的正常化所得稅準備金，實際稅率為 7.9%。這使得經調整後的稀釋每股收益達到 0.17 美元，符合 3 個月前給出的指導範圍，並略高於去年同期水準。重要的是，儘管我們在第三季產生了約 5,500 萬美元的淨關稅損益支出（約每股 0.11 美元），我們仍然實現了這一目標。今年迄今的經營現金流為 1.03 億美元，去年同期為 3.46 億美元。鑑於現金的重要性，讓我們花幾分鐘時間來全面分析一下這種情況。

At the start of the year, we knew operating cash flow for 2025 was likely to be below 2024 levels for two reasons. First, we needed to pay out in early 2025, a well above target bonus related to the 2024 performance year, which was considerably higher than the below target bonus pout in early 2024 related to the 2023 performance year. Second, during 2024, we enjoyed outsized working capital benefits, having reduced our cash conversion cycle by nine days. Now that being said, three quarters into 2025, we are running behind plan as it relates to operating cash flow for several reasons.

年初時，我們就知道 2025 年的經營現金流可能會低於 2024 年的水平，原因有二。首先，我們需要在 2025 年初支付一筆遠高於目標獎金的獎金，該獎金與 2024 年的業績相關，而 2024 年初支付的獎金低於目標獎金，該獎金與 2023 年的業績相關。其次，在 2024 年，我們獲得了龐大的營運資金收益，現金週轉週期縮短了 9 天。話雖如此，到 2025 年已經過去三個季度了，由於多種原因，我們在營運現金流方面落後於計劃。

First, we now expect to incur approximately $180 million of gross tariff cash impacts this year, which is up from $155 million from our last earnings call. The increase is driven by higher import volumes from China following our second quarter shipment pause, additional reciprocal tariffs on Southeast Asia and China the August 18 Section 232 increase on steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% and additional items having been added to the tariff registry.

首先，我們預計今年將產生約 1.8 億美元的關稅現金影響，高於上次財報電話會議中預測的 1.55 億美元。此次成長是由於我們在第二季暫停出貨後，從中國的進口量增加，對東南亞和中國加徵了額外的對等關稅，8 月 18 日根據第 232 條款將鋼鐵和鋁的關稅從 25% 提高到 50%，以及關稅登記冊中新增了其他商品。

Second, the discrete items Chris cited that negatively impacted third quarter sales created excess inventory, which as a practical matter, we will not be able to fully process through at this stage in the year. Finally, and I will speak more about this in just a few minutes, a reduced sales forecast and higher tariff cost for the full year leave us with less operating income than previously projected. Given these dynamics, our third quarter cash conversion cycle increased by about four days, but we still reduced our net leverage ratio down to 5.3 times, which was a 20 basis point improvement over last quarter.

其次，克里斯提到的對第三季銷售產生負面影響的個別項目造成了庫存過剩，而實際上，我們今年現階段還無法完全消化這些庫存。最後，稍後我會詳細談談這一點，由於全年銷售預測減少和關稅成本增加，我們的營業收入將低於先前的預期。鑑於這些動態，我們第三季的現金轉換週期增加了約四天，但我們仍然將淨槓桿率降低至 5.3 倍，比上一季改善了 20 個基點。

Moving to the fourth quarter outlook. We expect net sales to decline 4% to 1% and core sales to decline 5% to 3%, with the difference being primarily driven by foreign exchange. Given this range, the core sales improvement we are calling for between third quarter actuals and the midpoint of our fourth quarter outlook of 3.5 points can be reconciled as follows: first, we believe the bulk of any onetime retailer inventory transitions away from direct import to domestic fulfillment are now behind us. In addition, retailer inventories have, generally speaking, already taken the higher inventory bull value of products associated with tariffs and any reduction in open-to-buy dollars into account.

接下來展望第四季。我們預計淨銷售額將下降 4% 至 1%，核心銷售額將下降 5% 至 3%，其中差異主要受外匯影響。有鑑於此範圍，我們預計第三季實際銷售額將比第四季預期中位數高出 3.5 個百分點，這可以透過以下方式進行解釋：首先，我們認為零售商一次性庫存從直接進口轉向國內配送的大部分情況現在已經過去。此外，一般來說，零售商的庫存已經考慮到了與關稅相關的產品庫存牛市價值的增加以及可購買資金的任何減少。

Second, we expect our international business to return to growth in Q4 as Brazil recovers from the macroeconomic disruption that occurred during the third quarter and as consumer confidence improves following the Argentinian election which incidentally and perhaps surprisingly is 1 of our top 10 international markets. Third, we have strengthened our fourth quarter promotion plans, and we are finally starting to see competitive price movement across several key categories both of which should accelerate our unit velocity.

其次，我們預計隨著巴西從第三季度發生的宏觀經濟動盪中復甦，以及阿根廷大選後消費者信心的改善（順便一提，阿根廷是我們十大國際市場之一，這或許令人驚訝），我們的國際業務將在第四季度恢復成長。第三，我們加強了第四季度的促銷計劃，我們終於開始看到幾個關鍵類別的價格競爭出現，這兩點都應該會加快我們的銷售量。

Fourth, we expect to have more incremental tariff advantage wins in the fourth quarter than in the third. And finally, our fourth quarter innovation and marketing program is judgmentally the strongest we will have fielded since the Jarden acquisition.

第四，我們預計第四季將比第三季獲得更多的關稅優勢。最後，我們第四季的創新和行銷計劃，從客觀角度來看，是自收購 Jarden 以來我們推出的最強大的計劃。

Going a bit further into the P&L, normalized operating margin for the fourth quarter is expected to be between 9% and 9.5%, which includes a significant favorable overhead impact from well above target incentive comp earned in the 2024 base period. With a tax rate in the low teens, normalized EPS is expected to be in the $0.16 to $0.20 range. Please note that this EPS range includes about $50 million or $0.10 per share of negative tariff impact prior to any offsetting action.

進一步分析損益表，預計第四季度的正常營業利潤率將在 9% 至 9.5% 之間，其中包括 2024 年基準期內獲得的遠高於目標的激勵性薪酬帶來的顯著有利的間接費用影響。如果稅率在十幾美元左右，預計正常化每股收益將在 0.16 美元至 0.20 美元之間。請注意，此每股收益範圍包含約 5,000 萬美元或每股 0.10 美元的負面關稅影響，此影響未計入任何抵銷措施。

Turning to our full year 2025 financial projections. Net sales are expected to decline 5% to 4.5% and core sales are expected to decline 5% to 4%. Normalized operating margin should be in the range of 8.4% to 8.6% and our EPS range is now $0.56 to $0.60. Within that range, we expect to incur a net 2025 P&L impact before any offsetting mitigating actions of $115 million related to tariffs, $10 million of which came through in Q2 and $55 million of which came through in Q3, leaving roughly $50 million in Q4. On a normalized EPS basis, this equates to approximately $0.23 per share, which impacted the second and third quarters by $0.02 and $0.11, respectively, leaving $0.10 for the fourth quarter.

接下來，我們來看看2025年全年財務預測。預計淨銷售額將下降 5% 至 4.5%，核心銷售額將下降 5% 至 4%。正常化營業利潤率應在 8.4% 至 8.6% 之間，每股收益預期範圍目前為 0.56 美元至 0.60 美元。在此範圍內，我們預計在採取任何抵銷緩解措施之前，關稅將對 2025 年損益表產生 1.15 億美元的淨影響，其中 1000 萬美元已在第二季度產生，5500 萬美元已在第三季度產生，剩餘約 5000 萬美元將在第四季度產生。以正常每股收益計算，這相當於每股約 0.23 美元，分別對第二季和第三季造成了 0.02 美元和 0.11 美元的影響，第四季則為 0.10 美元。

This updated normalized EPS range still assumes an effective tax rate in the mid-teens and includes a higher level of expected interest expense due to our refinancing in May of this year. Finally, we are updating our full-year operating cash flow guidance range of $250 million to $300 million, which incorporates our prior commentary regarding third quarter actuals and our fourth quarter estimates. We acknowledge this is considerably lower than when the year began, but it would also be fair to recognize that $180 million in incremental cash tariff impacts has had a negative impact on our end-year cash generation.

此次更新後的標準化每股收益範圍仍然假設有效稅率在十幾個百分點左右，並且由於我們今年 5 月的再融資，預計利息支出水平更高。最後，我們將全年經營現金流預期範圍更新為 2.5 億美元至 3 億美元，其中納入了我們先前對第三季實際數據和第四季預測的評論。我們承認這比年初時要低得多，但公平地說，1.8 億美元的額外現金關稅影響也對我們年底的現金產生了負面影響。

Typically, we hold commentary related to the upcoming fiscal year for our fourth quarter earnings call. However, given the importance of cash and being mindful of our leverage ratio, we now expect to end the year at about 5x. There are a few things we would like to point out today relative to 2026. Specifically, we expect operating cash flow to strengthen significantly next year as cash taxes and incentive compensation declined year-over-year. In addition, based on our preliminary reviews, we expect 2026 CapEx spending to be meaningfully below 2025 levels since several major IT and supply chain initiatives will be behind us.

通常情況下，我們會將即將到來的財政年度相關的評論留到第四季度財報電話會議上進行討論。然而，考慮到現金的重要性以及我們對槓桿率的關注，我們現在預計年底槓桿率將達到 5 倍左右。關於2026年，我們今天想指出幾點。具體而言，我們預計明年的營運現金流將大幅增強，因為現金稅收和激勵性薪資將年減。此外，根據我們的初步評估，我們預計 2026 年資本支出將遠低於 2025 年的水平，因為幾項重大的 IT 和供應鏈計劃將完成。

Finally, we expect our cash conversion cycle to drop next year and working capital to improve as this year's tariff inventory effects normalize. Before handing things off to the operator for your questions, we would like to offer three quick closing thoughts. First, while the macro environment remains fluid, we're confident our strategy is working. Looking ahead, we'll work to broaden distribution and continue to bring fewer but bigger and better supported product and commercial innovations to market. In fact, right now, we have plans to launch over 20 gross margin accretive differentiated and consumer-relevant Tier 1 or Tier 2 propositions next year.

最後，我們預計明年現金週轉週期將縮短，營運資本將隨著今年關稅庫存影響的正常化而改善。在將您的問題交給接線員解答之前，我們想簡單總結三點。首先，儘管宏觀環境仍然瞬息萬變，但我們對我們的策略充滿信心。展望未來，我們將努力擴大分銷管道，並持續推出數量更少但規模更大、支援更好的產品和商業創新產品。事實上，我們目前計劃明年推出 20 多款能夠提升毛利率、具有差異化優勢且與消費者相關的 1 級或 2 級產品。

Second, these innovations, along with our base business will be supported by more effective advertising at higher weights for longer periods of time.

其次，這些創新以及我們的基礎業務將得到更有效的廣告支持，廣告投放力道更大，投放時間更長。

Finally, while tariffs have arguably set us back a couple of quarters on our journey towards a positive and sustained inflection in top line sales and additional balance sheet deleveraging. We continue to march forward with confidence and conviction that Newell Brands best days still lie ahead. And of course, I would be remiss if I didn't echo Chris' comments but proud we have been by the way in which the Newell team has proactively addressed the unique challenges that have been presented this year.

最後，儘管關稅無疑地使我們在實現營收持續成長和進一步降低資產負債表槓桿率的道路上倒退了幾個季度。我們繼續滿懷信心和信念向前邁進，相信紐威品牌最好的日子還在後頭。當然，如果我不附和克里斯的評論，那就太失職了，但我們為紐維爾團隊積極主動地應對今年出現的獨特挑戰而感到自豪。

The team's agility, resilience and professionalism have been on full display throughout the year, and Chris and I are honored to be part of the positive transformation being affected at Newell Brands.

在過去的一年中，團隊的敏捷性、韌性和專業精神得到了充分展現，我和克里斯很榮幸能成為紐威品牌積極變革的一部分。

Operator, we'll now open the call to questions.

接線員，現在開始接受提問。

Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

勞倫·利伯曼，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, good morning, guys. So I have a lot of questions. First off, we were all together in September, right? And you had an opportunity to publicly comment on trends. And I know back to school was still, the season itself was still very early. But the shortfall here wasn't just back to school, obviously. So first, can we talk about when you had a sense of what was going on from an organic sales standpoint? Because the misses, stark, to say the least. And there's a number of drivers here, all of which, given your connectivity with retailers, I would have thought you would have had better visibility into by that point in the quarter. Thanks.

嘿，大家早安。所以我有很多問題。首先，我們九月的時候都在一起，對吧？你還有機會公開評論各種趨勢。我知道開學季，甚至賽季本身，都還很早。但很顯然，這裡的不足之處不僅僅是返校。首先，我們可以談談您是什麼時候開始意識到自然銷售方面的情況的嗎？因為這些失誤，說得委婉點，也是非常明顯的。這裡有很多驅動因素，考慮到你與零售商的聯繫，我原以為到本季末你應該對這些因素有更清晰的了解。謝謝。

Yeah, thanks, Lauren. So if you look at the three factors that caused the miss, we knew that retailer inventory was going to decline in the third quarter. And in fact, we had talked about that, and we thought we had appropriately captured that in our guidance. However, the magnitude of the retailer inventory reduction manifested itself much more significantly than what we expected in the month of September. And so, for example, we didn't know on the home fragrance business that retailers were not going to reorder the new product because they were going to be liquidating the old product. That really manifested in the month of September after the back-to-school conference.

謝謝你，勞倫。因此，如果你看一下導致業績未達預期的三個因素，我們知道零售商的庫存將在第三季下降。事實上，我們已經討論過這個問題，我們認為我們已經在指導方針中適當地體現了這一點。然而，零售商庫存減少的幅度在9月表現得比我們預期的要顯著得多。例如，在家庭香氛產業，我們並不知道零售商不會重新訂購新產品，因為他們要清倉舊產品。這一點在9月返校大會之後表現得特別明顯。

The second thing is the international business. The international business, which had been tracking for six quarters in a row in positive growth, really fell apart in September. And for perspective, Brazil, which is one of our top five markets, ended the quarter down 25%. And Brazil had been growing in high single digits pretty consistently. That really manifested itself much more dramatically in September after the administration put a 50% tariff on Brazil. We didn't know that was going to happen.

第二件事是國際業務。國際業務先前已連續六季保持正成長，但在9月卻急劇下滑。相比之下，巴西是我們五大市場之一，但該季度末巴西的銷售額下降了 25%。巴西的經濟一直保持著接近兩位數的穩定成長。9 月份，美國政府對巴西加徵 50% 的關稅後，這種情況表現得更為明顯。我們事先並不知道會發生這樣的事。

Likewise, in Argentina, which is one of our top 10 markets, there was an election coming up for the president's party in Argentina. that caused retailers in the month of September to effectively stop ordering. So we went from a business that was doing very well there to a very negative situation in September. And so that sort of surprised us. And then I think the third thing was we took aggressive pricing action as we were very public about.

同樣，在我們十大市場之一的阿根廷，總統所在政黨即將舉行選舉，這導致零售商在9月實際上停止了訂購。所以，我們原本在那裡經營得非常好，但到了九月份，情況就急轉直下，變得非常糟糕。所以這讓我們有點驚訝。我認為第三點是，我們採取了積極的定價策略，這一點我們已經公開表態了。

Our third round of pricing went into the market July 28 and was starting to get reflected at retail in early September. We expected our competitors to follow, and what happened was in a number of categories, not in all, but in a number of categories, we got scraped by competitors who did not price. and that also began to manifest itself more significantly in the month of September. So I think the month of September, as we've been pretty public about, is the largest month in the third quarter. It always has been. And so, you know, that's what caught us by surprise was the confluence of those three factors which really were back-end weighted in the quarter.

我們的第三輪定價於 7 月 28 日進入市場，並在 9 月初開始反映在零售市場中。我們預料到競爭對手會效仿，而實際情況是，在某些類別中（並非所有類別），我們被那些不採取定價策略的競爭對手遠遠甩在了後面。這種情況在九月開始變得更加明顯。所以我認為，正如我們之前公開表示的那樣，9 月是第三季最大的月份。一直都是這樣。所以，你知道，讓我們感到意外的是，這三個因素同時出現，而這三個因素在本季後期的影響尤其顯著。

Okay. And then just following up on that aggressive pricing piece, let's talk about, if we can, categories, because I know baby, obviously, you need it to price. That's your one big category that was unavoidable in terms of tariffs. But on the others, I would not have thought your pricing needed to be, let's put it that given your lower tariff exposure. So I'm just surprised that you were on, maybe I missed something, but kind of caught off sides. You were kind of caught off sides on pricing in categories where tariffs are not a big impact for you or shouldn't have been.

好的。然後，為了跟進剛才的激進定價策略，我們來談談產品類別吧，因為我知道，寶貝，顯然，你需要它來定價。這是關稅方面不可避免的一大類費用。但就其他方面而言，考慮到你們較低的關稅風險，我認為你們的定價沒有必要如此。所以我很驚訝你竟然在線，也許我錯過了什麼，但我有點被蒙在鼓裡了。在某些類別中，關稅對你的影響不大，或者說不應該對你產生影響，所以你在定價方面有點措手不及。

Yeah, so about 45% of our US business is imported from outside the US. and we've been talking about diversifying our risk profile there, which we've been making good progress on. Interestingly, the baby pricing went reasonably well. So cumulatively, between the three price increases on baby year, we've taken prices up close to 24%.

是的，我們美國業務大約有45%是從美國以外進口的。我們一直在討論如何分散這方面的風險，而且在這方面取得了不錯的進展。有趣的是，嬰兒用品的定價相當不錯。因此，累計起來，在嬰兒年的三次漲價中，我們已經將價格提高了近 24%。

Competition has largely followed in that category and as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we actually gained share in the third quarter. and so although the baby sales were down, the POS on baby was up significantly. It was more a function of the retailer ship from direct import to domestic delivery from one of the largest retailers in the country that put a temporary reduction on revenue in the baby business. The place where we really got caught offside was much more related to the kitchen business.

在這一領域，競爭對手大多步其後塵，正如我在事先準備好的發言稿中提到的，我們實際上在第三季度獲得了市場份額。因此，儘管嬰兒用品的銷售額有所下降，但嬰兒用品的銷售點利潤卻顯著成長。嬰兒用品業務收入暫時下降，主要是由於零售商從直接進口改為由該國最大的零售商之一進行國內配送所致。我們真正犯錯的地方其實與廚房生意有關。

So on the kitchen business, we had brands like Calphalon, Mr. Coffee, Crock-Pot that are imported from Asia, some of which from China, and we price to recover the structural economics and competitors basically didn't follow us during this period. Now part of that is understandable because we generally are the market leader in the categories in which we play and competitors may have been waiting to see what we did before they took action.

所以在廚房用品業務方面，我們有像 Calphalon、Mr. Coffee、Crock-Pot 這樣的品牌，它們都是從亞洲進口的，其中一些來自中國，我們通過定價來彌補結構性經濟損失，而競爭對手在這段時間里基本上沒有跟進。這其中一部分原因可以理解，因為我們通常是我們所處領域的市場領導者，競爭對手可能一直在等待觀察我們的行動，然後再採取行動。

But the pricing that we put in the market turned out to position us as being uncompetitive in those businesses that are primarily sourced businesses.

但是，我們當時的定價策略卻讓我們在那些主要依賴原物料採購的企業中失去了競爭力。

Okay. Great. And then last thing, and then I'll pass it along. I guess there's two questions. But just the direct import to direct delivery shift that I know you had spoken to -- so was it bigger? I think it was supposed to be a one point shift 3Q to Q4. So I just wanted to check on that. And then also just the headwind from tariffs.

好的。偉大的。最後還有一件事，說完我就把它轉告出去。我想這裡有兩個問題。但我知道您已經談到了從直接進口到直接交付的轉變——那麼這種轉變是否更大？我認為原本應該是從第三季到第四季調整一個點。所以我只是想確認一下。此外，關稅也帶來了不利影響。

I don't know if I was interpreting correctly, but the $24 million in the quarter, think that's about half of what it was anticipated to be. So was there a shift also part of the profit headwind we're going to see in 4Q? Is flow-through of tariff timing because of the slower sales growth you like didn't sell through as much of that on the water tariff inventory in 3Q and so you're seeing more of the hit in 4Q?

我不知道我的理解是否正確，但本季2400萬美元的收入，我認為大約是預期收入的一半。那麼，這種轉變是否也是導致我們第四季獲利下滑的原因之一呢？您是否認為，由於銷售成長放緩，導致第三季水費庫存銷售不暢，造成關稅生效時間的延遲，因此您在第四季度看到了更大的衝擊？

Yes. So on the tariff side, I think the $24 million that Mark was talking about was just the onetime tariff from the 125% that manifested itself. But the total tariff hit in Q3 was much bigger than that. which was $0.11. And I think that was roughly what we thought.

是的。所以，就關稅方面而言，我認為馬克所說的 2,400 萬美元只是 125% 關稅帶來的一次性費用。但第三季關稅造成的總損失遠不止於此，達到了0.11美元。我認為這和我們之前的預想基本上一致。

So I don't think there was a change in sort of tariff expectation on that. Relative to the retail inventory reduction, I think when we started -- when we guided for Q2 -- or for Q3, I'm sorry. We expected retailer inventory reduction to be about one point of headwind from the DI to direct delivery switch that we knew about heading into the quarter. . We believe that based on the data we have, that it was about 2 points more than that, not all because of direct import direct to domestic delivery, but also because of this retailers pulling back on inventory on things like the home fragrance restage.

所以我認為，在這方面，人們對關稅的預期並沒有改變。關於零售庫存削減，我認為當我們開始——當我們對第二季或第三季做出預測時，抱歉。我們預計零售商庫存減少將對本季從直接配送轉向零售商直接配送帶來約 1 個百分點的不利影響，而我們在進入本季時就已經知道了這一情況。。根據我們掌握的數據，我們認為實際數字比這高出約 2 個百分點，這不僅是因為直接進口到國內直接發貨，也是因為零售商減少了家居香氛等產品的庫存。

So we think we were expecting sort of a one point headwind from retail inventory reduction. We think in the quarter, we wound up with more like a 3-point headwind from retail inventory reduction.

所以我們認為，零售庫存減少會帶來大約一個百分點的不利影響。我們認為，本季零售庫存減少為我們帶來了約 3 個百分點的不利影響。

Okay. All right. Great. I'll pass it on. Thanks so much.

好的。好的。偉大的。我會轉達的。非常感謝。

Filippo Falorni, Citi.

Filippo Falorni，花旗銀行。

So Chris, obviously, you mentioned a very challenging environment on the macro side, and you're revising your category growth down 2%. I guess what's the visibility there? I know these numbers has been revised down a couple of times this year. And I know it's challenging to forecast, but like what gives you the confidence that this 3% is the run rate?

所以克里斯，很顯然，你提到了宏觀層面非常具有挑戰性的環境，因此你將品類成長預期下調了 2%。我想問那裡的能見度如何？我知道這些數字今年已經被下調過幾次了。我知道預測很難，但你憑什麼確信這 3% 就是實際的運作率呢？

And then just a follow-up on Q4, your core sales guidance assume worsened category. Is there an assumption in Q4 of further destocking at the retailer level or market share losses? Thank you.

然後，關於第四季度，你們的核心銷售預期是基於品類惡化的假設。第四季是否預期零售商層級會進一步去庫存或市佔率會下降？謝謝。

Yeah. So we -- it's not, when we thought about the Q4 guide, obviously, we wanted to set the Q4 guide in a place that recognized that we've just come off of a miss in Q3. And so, you know, the category has been running down kind of around 2% to 3%. We took the more conservative view relative to Q4 at setting it at minus 3%.

是的。所以——顯然，當我們考慮到第四季度業績指引時，我們希望將第四季度業績指引設定在一個能夠反映我們剛剛經歷了第三季度業績不及預期的情況下。所以，你知道，這個類別一直在下降，降幅在 2% 到 3% 左右。與第四季相比，我們採取了更保守的觀點，將其設定為-3%。

And then we also -- because of this price scrape experience, we wanted to build in some potential for that price scrape experience to continue into Q4. And so we guided, I think, down 3% to down 5%. The high end of our range would assume that we grow in line with the market. The down five end of the range would assume primarily that we get price scraped in a meaningful way, and that continues. We think we've taken remedial action to get our pricing more competitive. as I mentioned in the prepared remarks. But we didn't want to go into Q4 over-promising relative to what we're seeing on those two factors. So that's what informed our guide for Q4.

而且，由於這次價格抓取經驗，我們希望能夠將這種價格抓取經驗延續到第四季。因此，我們給出的預期是下跌 3% 到 5%。我們產品系列的高端產品假設我們能夠與市場同步成長。下跌區間的下限為 5，這主要假設價格會以某種有意義的方式下跌，而且這種情況還會持續下去。正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的，我們認為我們已經採取了補救措施，使我們的價格更具競爭力。但我們不想在第四季做出相對於這兩個因素而言過於樂觀的承諾。這就是我們制定第四季指南的依據。

Got it. And then just on the categories and your share gains and the potential for increasing shelf space in your categories where you are manufacturing at advantage, versus competition. Do you feel that we're going to see more of that in Q4, or is that a bigger opportunity for 26?

知道了。然後，就你擁有的生產優勢類別、市場佔有率成長以及在你具有生產優勢的類別中增加貨架空間的潛力而言，相對於競爭對手而言。你覺得我們在第四季會看到更多這樣的情況嗎？還是說26號公司有更大的發展機會？

We think both. So we had said earlier that in our tariff advantage categories, we have been proactively selling to get incremental shelf space and incremental merchandising. We remain on track for $35 million of additional business. this year. That number has not changed relative to what we expect this year and more of that is coming in Q4 than was in Q3, which is a reason for sequential improvement.

我們認為兩者都是。因此，我們之前說過，在我們的關稅優勢類別中，我們一直在積極銷售，以獲得更多的貨架空間和更多的商品陳列。我們今年仍有望實現3500萬美元的額外業務收入。今年這個數字與我們預期的相比沒有變化，而且第四季度比第三季度有更多的增長，這是環比增長的原因。

As we go into next year, we're more optimistic. That number is going to be bigger in 26 versus 25. We're also, it bears repeating, pretty optimistic about where we're heading in in calendar year of 2026. And the reason for that is because, as Mark mentioned in the prepared remarks, we have now over 20 Tier 1 and Tier 2 initiatives lined up ready to launch next year. For perspective, in 2023, when we started the turnaround effort, we had one. In '24, we went to eight. This year, we launched 15. Next year, it'll be over 20.

展望明年，我們更加樂觀。26 年的這個數字會比 25 年的更大。值得重申的是，我們對 2026 年的發展前景相當樂觀。原因正如馬克在準備好的演講稿中提到的那樣，我們現在已經有超過 20 個一級和二級項目準備在明年啟動。為了讓大家有個概念，2023 年，當我們開始扭轉局面時，我們只有一個。2024年，我們去了八個地方。今年，我們推出了15款產品。明年就會超過20。

And if you look at those innovations that we're launching next year, they really span every segment. And I think I mentioned it in my prepared remarks, including outdoor and rec, which was the one that we've been pretty clear was going to take until 2026, until we got the innovation ready to launch. So we've got a full slate of innovation launching next year. The retailer reaction to the innovation has been very strong. In fact, a number of our leading retailers have commented that it's the strongest innovation portfolio they've seen from Newell in over 10 years.

如果你看看我們明年即將推出的那些創新產品，它們實際上涵蓋了各個領域。我想我在準備好的演講稿中提到了這一點，包括戶外和休閒娛樂，我們已經非常明確地表示，這項技術要到 2026 年才能推出。所以，我們明年將推出一系列創新產品。零售商對這項創新的反應非常強烈。事實上，我們許多領先的零售商都表示，這是紐威十多年來推出的最強大的創新產品組合。

We also know that as we head into both in Q4 and into next year, that from the line reviews that we've had, our net distribution is turning positive in Q4, and we expect that to accelerate as we go into next year. So we think we're taking the right action to get the company growing faster than the market growth. And we think that we're set up in a positive way as we head into 2026.

我們也知道，隨著我們進入第四季度和明年，根據我們進行的生產線審查，我們的淨利潤在第四季度將轉正，我們預計隨著我們進入明年，這種情況會加速發展。所以我們認為我們正在採取正確的措施，使公司的成長速度超過市場成長速度。我們認為，展望 2026 年，我們已經做好了積極的準備。

Got it. Thank you so much, guys.

知道了。非常感謝各位。

Peter Grom, UBS.

Peter Grom，瑞銀集團。

So I wanted to ask a follow-up to that. And it's just kind of a clarification on the category growth and the guidance. And I apologize if I missed it, but the 3% down assumption versus currently running down 2% to 3% and the commentary that it's coming off a miss versus expectations, which I think would suggest that you're embedding some flexibility here.

所以我想就此問一個後續問題。這只是對品類成長和績效指引的一種澄清。如果我錯過了什麼，我深表歉意，但是之前假設下跌 3%，而目前下跌幅度為 2% 到 3%，並且評論說這是在未能達到預期之後發生的，我認為這表明你們在這裡留有一定的靈活性。

But I guess I'm just curious on that, the category assumption, because it does seem like when you listen to other companies in CDG or other consumer sectors, it seems like there's a lot of consumer uncertainty and in many ways trends are actually getting worse sequentially. So is it not plausible that the category would deteriorate to kind of that 3% number as we move through the balance of the year? Is there something I'm kind of missing there?

但我只是對這個類別假設感到好奇，因為當你聽取其他CDG或其他消費品行業的公司的意見時，似乎會發現消費者存在很多不確定性，而且在很多方面，趨勢實際上是在逐個惡化。那麼，隨著今年剩餘時間的過去，這一類別惡化到 3% 左右的可能性有多大？是不是我漏掉了什麼？

No, I think it's certainly plausible. @e meet with a number of different input sources, including people like Sercan, we obviously talk to retailers about their outlook, and we looked at macroeconomic forecast as we try to estimate the market growth. I would say that the 2 biggest themes that we're seeing relative to the consumer standpoint and general merchandise more broadly, is, number one, there is a significant pullback among the low-income consumer households. So it is notable.

不，我認為這完全有可能。我們諮詢了許多不同的資訊來源，包括像Sercan這樣的公司，我們當然也會與零售商溝通了解他們的前景，並且我們在估算市場成長時也參考了宏觀經濟預測。我認為，就消費者角度和更廣泛的商品市場而言，我們看到的兩個最大主題是：第一，低收入家庭消費者出現了明顯的消費回落。所以這很值得注意。

Low-income consumers remain under a lot of pressure and their purchase behavior in general merchandise is down significantly versus a year ago for the bottom one-third of US households and that trend has been continuing. We haven't seen it accelerate or decelerate, but it remains a headwind for the category. The other notable trend that we're seeing from an age group is that the younger consumer, those 18 to 24 also are pulling back significantly on general merchandise purchases and that trend has been with us for a little while now, and we think that trend is also relatively stable. So I think we felt like setting the category growth rate assumption sort of at the low end of what we've seen so far was the right was the right place to head into Q4 from an assumption standpoint based on what we've seen across all of the data that we look at.

低收入消費者仍面臨很大的壓力，與一年前相比，美國收入最低的三分之一家庭在一般商品上的購買行為大幅下降，而且這種趨勢還在持續。我們還沒有看到它加速或減速，但它仍然是該領域的一個不利因素。我們看到的另一個值得注意的趨勢是，18 至 24 歲的年輕消費者也大幅減少了一般商品的購買，這種趨勢已經持續了一段時間，我們認為這種趨勢也相對穩定。所以我覺得，根據我們所看到的所有數據，從假設的角度來看，將品類成長率的假設設定在我們目前所看到的較低水平，是進入第四季度的正確做法。

Okay, that's helpful. And then I guess, Mark, you kind of mentioned that tariffs push back the return to sales growth by a couple of quarters. Commentary to Filippo's question was helpful, just in your confidence in the ability to outperform. But just, I don't know, given the exit rate, do you have any initial views on how we should be thinking about category growth or sales growth looking out to 2026?

好的，這很有幫助。然後，馬克，我想你剛才也提到過，關稅會使銷售成長的恢復推遲幾個季度。菲利波問題的解答很有幫助，你對自己能夠超越對手的能力充滿信心。但是，鑑於目前的退出率，對於我們應該如何看待 2026 年的品類成長或銷售成長，您有什麼初步看法嗎？

I think what I would say is at this point in time, as Chris indicated, we're going to be a little bit conservative on our category growth rate assumptions. We haven't guided to anything with respect to '26. But I do think this might be a good opportunity to at least share an observation. Certainly, we all had wished when we started this year that we were going to grow the top line at a better rate than we're obviously going to demonstrate.

我認為，正如克里斯所指出的，目前我們對品類成長率的假設會比較保守。我們沒有就 '26' 發表任何意見。但我認為這或許是個分享一些看法的好機會。當然，今年年初的時候，我們都希望營收成長速度能比現在明顯快得多。

But we have to take into account the context. And we also have to take into account how the company was able to respond to the challenges that we faced we've had $180 million of gross cash impacts and $155 million of net P&L effects that we've been speaking to as far as where we find ourselves. That equates to $0.23 a share of headwind. And if you look at where we are now currently guiding, it's effectively $0.56 to $0.60. So call the midpoint of that 58%.

但我們必須考慮具體情況。我們也要考慮到公司如何應對我們所面臨的挑戰，我們已經談到了1.8億美元的毛現金影響和1.55億美元的淨損益影響，以及我們目前的處境。這相當於每股0.23美元的逆風成本。如果你看我們目前的指導價位，實際上是 0.56 美元到 0.60 美元之間。所以，把中間價位設定為 58%。

Last year, we did $0.68 a share, but we had a 7% tax rate. If you adjust for that, that would basically be on an equivalized basis of $0.62 last year. So our guidance range right now at the midpoint is 58% versus 62%, and we have a $0.23 headwind. If you look at our EBITDA estimates for this year, there'll be about $900 million. Last year it was $900 million.Our leverage ratio will be 5, last year, it was 5. So clearly, while we have had to take some impacts from the top line effects from the international markets slowing from retailers pulling back on inventory from us leading on price.

去年，我們的每股盈餘為 0.68 美元，但稅率為 7%。如果考慮到這一點，那麼以去年的等值計算，基本上就是 0.62 美元。因此，我們目前的指導區間中位數為 58% 對 62%，並且面臨 0.23 美元的阻力。如果看看我們今年的 EBITDA 預測，大約是 9 億美元。去年是9億美元。我們的槓桿率將是5，去年也是5。因此很明顯，儘管我們必須承受國際市場放緩、零售商減少庫存以及我們價格領先的營收影響。

If you really look through all of that, I think the company has demonstrated an ability to react and react well and swiftly, and we've been able to keep the integrity of the financial structure of the company moving forward. So as we look forward to we're more optimistic. The challenges that we've given voice to today, we really do think are temporal, and we're going to get back to the base fundamentals of our category innovation, our consumer innovation and we're going to be out there leading across a whole range of fronts. So we're actually very excited about it. The category is going to do what the category is going to do.

如果你仔細審視所有這些，我認為公司已經展現出應對能力，並且能夠迅速有效地應對，我們也得以保持公司財務結構的完整性，並繼續向前發展。所以展望未來，我們更加樂觀。我們今天提出的這些挑戰，我們真的認為只是暫時的，我們將回歸品類創新和消費者創新的基本原則，並在各個領域引領潮流。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。該類別會按照該類別的方式發展。

But the things we are driving, and we can affect we feel very, very good about. And we're definitely in a much better position today than we were when this calendar year started.

但是，對於我們正在推動和能夠影響的事情，我們感到非常、非常滿意。如今我們的處境肯定比年初時好得多。

Great. Thank you so much. I'll pass it on.

偉大的。太感謝了。我會轉達的。

Andrea Teixeira, JP Morgan.

Andrea Teixeira，摩根大通。

I was hoping to see if you can comment a bit on your visibility in regards to the inventory, the stocking that you spoke about. And sorry if I missed some of the nuances. So that's one question. And then the second question is, have you taken pricing in Brazil and in some of these countries ahead of this or not ahead because of the tariffs?

我希望您能就您提到的庫存和進貨情況發表一些看法。如果我遺漏了一些細節，請見諒。這是其中一個問題。第二個問題是，您是否因為關稅問題而提前在巴西和其中一些國家進行定價？

And then the third point is, can you comment a little bit on the exit rate? It sounds as if because you took pricing ahead of your competitors and then now you did mention on the release that as you saw pricing coming through, you saw a better consumer-like take. Obviously, we don't see everything in the scanner. Can you comment to that? How are you seeing that consumer coming back or the price gaps narrowing relative to what? Maybe it would be helpful in writing particularly to see how the price gaps have narrowed or back to historicals. Thank you.

第三點是，您能否稍微談談退出率？聽起來好像是因為你們在定價方面領先競爭對手，然後你們在新聞稿中提到，隨著定價的出台，你們看到了更符合消費者需求的定價策略。顯然，我們無法透過掃描器看到所有東西。您對此有何評論？您認為消費者會如何回歸，或者說，相對於什麼而言，價格差距會縮小？或許在寫作方面，觀察價格差距是如何縮小的，或是回到歷史水平，會很有幫助。謝謝。

Okay. Let me try to take those in turn. On the inventory destocking, we have pretty good visibility on if a customer is going to move from direct import to domestic delivery, they give us significant, a few weeks or months of notice on that because we've got to manage that with them to make sure we have the inventory onshore before they start ordering. So we typically get a month or maybe two of lead time notice on that. We have accomplished all of that move that we've been notified of, and our amount of business that is direct import today is much lower than it has been at any point previously.

好的。讓我依序嘗試回答這些問題。關於庫存去庫存，我們很清楚客戶是否會從直接進口轉向國內發貨，他們會提前幾週或幾個月通知我們，因為我們必須與他們協商，確保在他們開始下單之前，我們的庫存已經到位。所以，我們通常會提前一個月或兩個月收到通知。我們已經完成了所有已通知的搬遷工作，目前我們的直接進口業務量比以往任何時候都要低得多。

I think at one point it was 10% of our US business. It's down now probably to about 5% of our US business with the most recent moves. So as we stand here today on that shift, we do not believe that there's any additional shift from direct import to domestic delivery that we're going to face in either Q4 or going into next year that we know about. We have not been notified on any additional categories. So that one we feel we've got pretty good visibility to, and we don't believe that will be a go-forward. topic that we're going to talk about because we believe that one-time impact really hit us in Q3 and is now in the rearview mirror.

我認為它一度占到我們美國業務的 10%。經過最近的調整，目前這部分業務可能只占我們美國業務的 5% 左右。所以就目前而言，我們認為在第四季或明年，我們不會面臨從直接進口到國內交付的任何額外轉變。我們尚未收到任何其他類別的通知。所以，我們覺得我們對這個問題已經有了比較清晰的了解，而且我們認為這不會成為我們接下來要討論的話題，因為我們認為這種一次性的影響在第三季度確實對我們造成了衝擊，現在已經成為過去。

Relative to retail inventory beyond that shift in delivery method, we get reasonable visibility primarily because many of our retailers, we have access in their systems to look at their weeks of cover on our business. and as we look at the weeks of cover on our business, our customer teams are flagging where we think we have risk from retailer inventories being too high relative to what they need from a replenishment standpoint. It's not a perfect science.

除了配送方式的轉變之外，我們還能較為清楚地了解零售庫存情況，這主要是因為我們能夠存取許多零售商的系統，查看他們為我們業務提供的周數保障。透過查看這些週數保障，我們的客戶團隊會指出哪些零售商的庫存過高，超出他們從補貨角度來看的實際需求，從而構成風險。這並非一門完美的科學。

Typically in our categories, retailers might hold eight to 10 weeks of inventory throughout their system and could they move the retail inventory up or down by a week or two? Yes. When we start to get concerned is when they are three or four weeks either too high or too low. As we sit here today, we don't see that. We believe that the retailer inventories are at our largest customers where we have visibility consistent with historical norms, so we don't believe that retailer inventories are out of line relative to historical norms. and that's why we said in the prepared remarks that we think that retailer inventory headwind is now behind us from what we can see.

通常情況下，在我們這個品類中，零售商可能會在整個系統中保持八到十週的庫存，他們能否將零售庫存增加或減少一到兩週？是的。當這些數值連續三四周過高或過低時，我們就會開始擔心。就我們今天所見，我們並沒有看到這一點。我們認為，在我們能夠掌握庫存資訊的最大客戶中，零售商的庫存水準與歷史正常水準一致，因此我們認為零售商的庫存水準並未超出歷史正常範圍。正因如此，我們在事先準備好的發言稿中表示，就我們目前所見，零售商庫存的不利因素已經過去。

On the pricing side, I'll start with Brazil. We did take pricing in Brazil in certain categories when the tariffs went into effect and we saw in that market both a significant macro slowdown and in the categories where we took pricing, we got scraped from a pricing standpoint. So we had a double impact in the Brazil market that affected our business. We have since corrected our pricing actions in those markets to be more competitive, and we believe the macro environment, which was negatively impacted, is starting to stabilize in that market.

價格方面，我先從巴西說起。當關稅生效時，我們確實對巴西某些類別的產品進行了定價，我們發現該市場宏觀經濟明顯放緩，而且在我們進行定價的類別中，從定價的角度來看，我們損失慘重。因此，我們在巴西市場受到了雙重衝擊，這對我們的業務造成了影響。此後，我們調整了這些市場的定價策略，使其更具競爭力，我們相信，受到負面影響的宏觀環境正在該市場開始趨於穩定。

The other one that I'll mention is in Argentina, it wasn't so much a pricing dynamic. There was a significant concern in that market around the elections that happened last Sunday relative to President Malay's party and whether they were going to be voted in or out of power effectively. His party wound up doing better than I think what anybody expected. that has reinvigorated confidence in the economy. A number of retailers in that market effectively stopped ordering product for a significant period of time pending the outcome of that election.

我還要提一下阿根廷的例子，那裡的問題與其說是價格因素，不如說是價格因素。上週日舉行的選舉引發了該市場對馬來總統政黨能否有效執政的極大關注。他的政黨最終的表現比任何人預期的都要好，這重振了人們對經濟的信心。在選舉結果出爐之前，該市場的許多零售商實際上停止了訂購產品相當長一段時間。

Now that that election is over with, those customers are reordering. So we expect that market to be back on track and are seeing positive trends as a result of that. On the pricing in the US, I'll start with writing, which you asked specifically about. We were hoping that and sort of expecting that during the replenishment part of back to school that a number of our competitors that were subject to tariffs would take prices up. We did not see that. However, we have seen in the month of October, just in the last two weeks, retail prices have moved up for a large majority of our competitor products. We have not moved prices up because we have domestic manufacturing.

現在選舉結束了，那些顧客又開始重新下單了。因此，我們預計市場將重回正軌，並且已經看到了由此帶來的積極趨勢。關於美國的定價，我先從你特別問到的寫作方面說起。我們當時希望並預期，在開學季補貨期間，一些受關稅影響的競爭對手會提高價格。我們沒有看到這一點。然而，我們看到，在十月的最近兩週，我們絕大多數競爭對手產品的零售價格都上漲了。我們沒有提價，因為我們有國內生產。

And so we've seen generally prices move up on competitive brands, high single to low single digits. And we believe from our discussions that that is going to allow us to sell more aggressively at expanding our distribution and it's going to create a competitive pricing advantage for us versus our competitive products. So again, that move just happened within the last week or two. It's a little bit too early to say what the consumer dynamic will be as a result of that, but we are seeing the price advantage because of our tariff advantage on writing, we believe will start to manifest itself in the fourth quarter.

因此，我們看到競爭品牌的價格普遍上漲，漲幅在個位數高點到個位數低點之間。我們相信，透過討論，這將使我們能夠更積極地擴大分銷管道，並為我們創造相對於競爭產品的價格優勢。所以，這一舉動也是最近一兩週內發生的。現在斷言消費者的消費動態會因此發生怎樣的變化還為時過早，但我們目前看到了價格優勢，這得益於我們在書寫方面的關稅優勢，我們相信這種優勢將在第四季度開始顯現。

And then on Baby, where I mentioned we took three rounds of pricing and we've now fully priced for the tariff impact. Generally, we've seen competitors follow. What's interesting on that is we had assumed that the elasticity would be about one for one. So as we took pricing up by 24%, effectively, we assumed unit volume would be down on those items by 24%. So far, that appears to be about right. and in fact it's going a little better than that because we are gaining market share on Baby both as consumers trade down from super premium brands to Graco and based on the strong innovation that we have that is, I think, doing better than the competitive set. So we feel good about the Baby business.

然後是關於嬰兒用品，我之前提到過，我們進行了三輪定價，現在我們已經完全考慮了關稅的影響。通常情況下，我們看到競爭對手都會跟進。有趣的是，我們先前假設彈性係數約為 1:1。因此，當我們把價格提高 24% 時，我們實際上假設這些商品的銷售量會下降 24%。目前看來，情況大致是如此。事實上，情況比這還要好一些，因為我們在嬰兒用品市場獲得了更多份額，一方面是因為消費者從超高端品牌轉向了 Graco，另一方面也是因為我們擁有強大的創新能力，我認為這些創新能力比競爭對手做得更好。所以我們對嬰兒用品業務感覺良好。

You're going to see in the third quarter core sales for Baby were down. that really is a function of this direct import to domestic delivery shift. I expect that trend will turn back positive here as we go forward.

你會發現，第三季嬰兒用品的核心銷售量有所下降。這確實是由於從直接進口轉向國內配送所致。我預計隨著時間的推移，這種趨勢將會轉為正面。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brian McNamara, Canaccord Genuity.

Brian McNamara，Canaccord Genuity。

First off, a week after you guys reported Q2, a large competitor of yours in small kitchen appliances suggested the US market is excluding this competitor, declined at like a mid to high single-digit clip in its category, suggesting you guys outperformed pretty well. I'm just curious how this particular category performed in Q3, given the pretty weak September.

首先，在你們公佈第二季度業績一周後，你們在小型廚房電器領域的一個主要競爭對手錶示，如果排除該競爭對手，美國市場在其類別中以中高個位數的速度下降，這表明你們的表現相當出色。我很好奇這個類別在第三季的表現如何，畢竟九月表現相當疲軟。

Yeah. I think, so if you look at the some of the small kitchen appliance competitors that have reported, and not all of them have reported, but a couple of them have reported organic sales growth down mid-teens. So certainly we did better than that. And I think we're not alone in being disrupted by this trade disruption. And the trade disruption not only hit us, but it hit retailers too, because effectively when the 145% tariff rate went into China, everybody stopped ordering.

是的。我認為，如果你看看一些已經發布業績報告的小廚房電器競爭對手（雖然不是所有競爭對手都發布了業績報告，但其中幾家已經報告稱其有機銷售增長率在15%左右）。所以，我們肯定做得比這好得多。我認為，受此次貿易中斷影響的並非只有我們。貿易中斷不僅影響了我們，也影響了零售商，因為當對中國徵收 145% 的關稅時，所有人都停止了訂購。

And when you stop ordering, you create sort of a kink in the supply chain, which then when you finally turn back on, it takes a while for you to get the inventory back through the ocean channel into the US and then shipped to retailers. And so there's a bit of choppiness really is impacting the import business more than the self-manufactured business. And I think if you look at the competitive set, you'll generally see that, where CPG companies that manufacture in the US are better positioned to navigate this because they don't have the same type of trade disruption as those that are importing product from outside the US. And that's certainly been true on our business if you look at our self-manufactured business versus our imported business.

當你停止訂購時，就會在供應鏈中造成某種程度的停滯，當你最終恢復訂購時，需要一段時間才能將庫存通過海運通道運回美國，然後再運送給零售商。因此，這種波動對進口業務的影響比對自產業務的影響更大。我認為，如果你觀察一下競爭格局，你通常會發現，在美國生產的消費品公司更有能力應對這種情況，因為它們不像從美國境外進口產品的公司那樣面臨同樣的貿易中斷。如果你比較我們自主生產的業務和進口業務，你會發現這一點在我們公司確實如此。

What we're trying to do, as I mentioned before, and what gives us confidence that we're on the right track from a strategy perspective is we think as we head into next year, we've got the strongest innovation pipeline that we will have ever had in the last 10 years. We think from what we know from the line review process, our distribution -- our net distribution in the US is going up versus this year. We continue to make very strong progress on overhead cost reduction, and I expect that to accelerate, particularly as we've made significant progress on artificial intelligence across the company.

正如我之前提到的，我們正在努力做的事情，以及讓我們有信心從戰略角度來看我們走在正確道路上的原因，是我們認為，展望明年，我們將擁有過去 10 年來最強大的創新管道。根據我們從產品線審查過程中了解到的情況，我們認為我們的分銷——我們在美國的淨分銷將比今年有所增長。我們在降低管理費用方面持續取得顯著進展，我預計這一進程將會加快，尤其是在公司人工智慧領域取得重大進展的情況下。

We're up to close to 100 use cases being implemented, and we've now moved fully into agentic AI, which we are starting to leverage more broadly across the company. And then I think as Mark went through, you know, we see as we head into next year a very strong cash bounce back for the company as we expect cash taxes to be down. We expect working capital to ratchet down as tariffs are fully embedded already into the inventory level. We're going to get some year over year help from incentive comp and we expect CapEx to be lower next year as some of the big projects that we've been doing are finalized going into next year.

我們目前已實施近 100 個用例，並且已經全面轉向智慧體人工智慧，我們正在開始在公司內部更廣泛地利用它。然後我認為，正如馬克所說，你知道，隨著我們進入明年，公司現金流將出現非常強勁的反彈，因為我們預計現金稅收將會下降。我們預計隨著稅務完全計入庫存水平，營運資金將逐步減少。我們將從激勵性薪酬中獲得一些同比收益，並且我們預計明年的資本支出將會降低，因為我們正在進行的一些大型專案將在明年完成。

So we'll obviously talk more as we always do at the fourth quarter call on our outlook for 26, but we're trying to navigate the short-term choppiness while ensuring we keep our eyes on sort of the mid-term turnaround plan.

所以，我們顯然會在第四季度電話會議上像往常一樣，更多地談論我們對2026年的展望，但我們正在努力應對短期波動，同時確保我們密切關注中期扭虧為盈計劃。

Great. And just a quick follow-up, and I think a key debate on the stock is whether you guys can sustainably grow again. So with A&P spending at a decade high, the tariff inventory adjustment at the retail level, a one-time event, international expected return to growth, why would Q4 be guided lower relative to your implied guidance prior? I think prior guidance implied flattish kind of core sales growth?

偉大的。最後再補充一點，我認為關於這支股票的一個關鍵論點是，你們能否再次實現永續成長。鑑於廣告和促銷支出達到十年來的最高水平，零售層面的關稅庫存調整屬於一次性事件，國際市場預計將恢復成長，為什麼第四季業績指引會低於您之前給出的隱含指引？我認為先前的指引暗示核心銷售成長將保持穩定？

Yeah. So I think our Q4 guide is probably maybe three points below what the implied guide was last quarter. And it's really three things. Number one, we've taken three equal things. Number one, we've taken a little bit more conservative view of the market. I think I mentioned minus three. I think previously in our applied guide, we would have been probably assuming minus two. We've taken a little bit more conservative view on international just because of what we saw in Brazil and Argentina. And so that maybe is another point that we've de-risked in the Q4 guide.

是的。所以我認為我們第四季的業績指引可能比上季的預期低三個百分點。實際上包含三件事。第一，我們選了三個同等重要的事物。第一，我們對市場採取了較保守的看法。我想我有提到負三。我認為之前在我們的應用指南中，我們可能會假設是負二。鑑於我們在巴西和阿根廷所看到的局勢，我們對國際問題採取了更保守的看法。所以，這或許是我們第四季業績指引中降低風險的另一個面向。

And then we've taken, as I mentioned, a little bit more conservative view on price scraping because we don't know how quickly competition is going to raise price. And so that's maybe another point as well. So those are the three factors that would cause us in Q4 to take a little bit more conservative view versus what the implied guide was previously.

正如我剛才提到的，我們對價格戰採取了更保守的態度，因為我們不知道競爭對手會以多快的速度提高價格。所以，這或許也是另一點。因此，這三個因素導致我們在第四季採取比之前預期更保守的觀點。

Helpful context. Thanks, guys. Best of luck.

有用的背景資訊。謝謝各位。祝你好運。

Olivia Tong, Raymond James.

Olivia Tong，Raymond James。

I wanted to ask you about the innovations that are coming, the 20 Tier 1, 2 innovations that you talked about for next year. As you think about in the planning for that, you mentioned in previous remarks the backdrop's more challenging. It sounds like the Yankee relaunch is off to a bumpy start. And you also talked about how low-income and younger consumers are pulling back. So as you think about the planning for that, can you talk about your conversations with retailers, the seemingly deceleration in terms of categories and just the general sort of malaise across these categories and launching innovation in that, how you may have to think about the growth expectations for that as we think about '26. Thank you.

我想問您關於即將到來的創新，您提到的明年將推出的 20 項一級、二級創新。正如你在先前的發言中提到的，在規劃過程中，背景更具挑戰性。看來洋基隊的重啟之路開局並不順利。您也談到了低收入和年輕消費者正在減少支出的情況。所以，在考慮這方面的規劃時，您能否談談您與零售商的對話，以及這些品類增長似乎放緩，以及這些品類普遍存在的疲軟狀態，還有在這些品類中推出創新，您在考慮 2026 年的增長預期時，可能需要如何看待這些增長預期。謝謝。

Yeah, good question. So what we're seeing is, and I mentioned sort of the broader consumer points, but the other point that we're seeing is when we come with compelling innovation, that represents a good value. We are seeing consumers respond to that. So the reason we're growing market share, for example, in Baby is because we've launched outstanding innovation behind the Graco SmartSense Bassinet and Swing, the Graco 360 EasyTurn 2 in 1 rotating convertible car seat, which are off to great starts.

嗯，問得好。所以我們看到的是，我剛才提到了一些更廣泛的消費者觀點，但我們看到的另一點是，當我們推出引人注目的創新產品時，它就代表著良好的價值。我們看到消費者對此做出了回應。例如，我們在嬰兒用品市場份額不斷增長的原因是，我們在 Graco SmartSense 嬰兒搖籃和鞦韆、Graco 360 EasyTurn 二合一旋轉可轉換汽車安全座椅等產品中推出了傑出的創新產品，這些產品都取得了良好的開端。

The reason why we're growing and where we're growing in the writing category is because of the sharp creative markers and the expo wet and dry race. The reason that we're -- the place where we're growing the fastest in outdoor and rec is behind the Common Pro coolers that we've launched. And so it's an interesting market because although the consumer is pulling back on general merchandise categories, we are seeing, if you come with a compelling innovation that represents a good value and I differentiate good value from low price, you can have a good value proposition that's at the MPP or the HPP price point but it has to be a good value, and it has to be a compelling proposition.

我們在寫作領域取得發展壯大的原因，以及我們能夠取得如此成就，是因為我們有敏銳的創意眼光，並且參加了博覽會的乾濕比賽。我們之所以能在戶外和休閒領域取得如此快速的成長，是因為我們推出了 Common Pro 冷藏箱。因此，這是一個有趣的市場，因為儘管消費者正在減少對一般商品類別的購買，但我們看到，如果你能帶來引人注目的創新，代表良好的價值（我區分良好價值和低價），你就能在中低價位或高價位點上擁有良好的價值主張，但它必須具有良好的價值，並且必須是一個引人注目的主張。

But when we do that, we are seeing the consumer broadly respond to that. And that's why we believe that it's right for us to continue to drive and invest behind innovation as we go into next year. I'm frankly pretty excited about what we've got planned next year. And we'll try to showcase -- we don't want to case at all on the earnings call today for competitive reasons, but we'll try to showcase some of it at some of the upcoming investor conferences that we go to. But I think it is pretty broad across our top 25 brands and every single business unit that we have is a strong innovation pipeline next year.

但當我們這樣做時，我們看到消費者普遍對此做出了積極回應。因此，我們認為，在新的一年裡，我們繼續推動和投資創新是正確的。坦白說，我對我們明年的計劃感到非常興奮。我們會盡量展示——出於競爭原因，我們今天不想在財報電話會議上透露任何信息，但我們會盡量在即將參加的一些投資者會議上展示其中的一些內容。但我認為這在我們排名前 25 名的品牌中相當普遍，而且我們擁有的每個業務部門明年都有強大的創新計劃。

And so we are now at a point where we're a little over two -- about 2.5 years into the new strategy. And recall, we put the new strategy in place, one of our big plants was rebuilding and implementing brand management, completely rebuilding our innovation process. 2026 is really the first year that we'll have full innovation across all of our businesses launching in the market as a result of that effort.

因此，我們現在已經到了實施新策略兩年多一點——大約兩年半的時間。回想一下，我們實施了新的策略，其中一家大型工廠正在重建並實施品牌管理，徹底重塑了我們的創新流程。 2026年將是我們所有業務全面實現創新並推向市場的第一年，而這正是我們努力的成果。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.

史蒂夫鮑爾斯，德意志銀行。

I was hoping we could just go back a little bit to where we started in terms of what happened in the quarter. Can you just talk a little bit about where you were coming into September? Were you in line with your prior guidance range? Because if you were, then I think the drop-off we're talking about in September is low to mid-teens, even factoring in the size of September. and then extrapolating from that, just a little bit about what you've seen so far in October and whether the guide, taking your points about the conservatism you've laid in, I'm just curious as to how much of a ramp is implied in the fourth quarter guide, especially because Yankee seems part of the problem or part of the step back in 3Q and we know how how big a business that is in December.

我希望我們能稍微回到本季初發生的事情。能簡單談談九月的時候您的狀況嗎？您的業績是否符合先前的預期範圍？如果你說的是真的，那麼我認為我們所說的9月份的下滑幅度應該在10%到15%之間，即使考慮到9月的規模。然後以此為基準進行推斷，再談談你目前在10月份觀察到的情況，以及你之前提到的保守預測，我很好奇第四季度的業績預期中究竟蘊含了多大的回升空間，尤其是在洋基隊似乎是第三季度業績下滑的原因之一，而我們都知道洋基隊在12月份的業務規模有多大。

So it seems a lot is dependent on that in the full year. So just some perspective there would be great. Thanks.

所以看來全年的情況很大程度取決於此。所以，如果能提供一些不同的視角就太好了。謝謝。

Yeah. So let me try to help here. So in the third quarter, the plan that we had heading into the third quarter had September as – so when we start – at the beginning of the third quarter when we guided for Q3, The plan that we had that our guidance was based on had September as the biggest quarter and had September up meaningfully versus a year ago.

是的。讓我來幫忙。因此，在第三季度，我們制定的計劃是9月份是…所以當我們在第三季度初對第三季度進行預測時，我們制定的計劃（我們的預測依據）將9月份視為最大的季度，並且9月份的業績與去年同期相比有顯著增長。

And so that was the plan that we assumed when we guided. And there were a lot of reasons why we thought that was going to happen from a shipment timing standpoint, et cetera. What we saw was that September certainly came in well below our expectations, as we mentioned. but September was not meaningfully off of what we saw in July and August.

所以，這就是我們擔任指導時所設想的計畫。從出貨時間等方面來看，我們有許多理由認為這種情況會發生。正如我們之前提到的，九月的數據確實遠低於預期。但九月份的數據與七月和八月的數據相比，並沒有顯著差異。

In fact, if anything, September was a little better versus prior year compared to July and August. But it was off of our forecast meaningfully, if that makes sense. As we go into what we're seeing so far in October, I think certainly the October results and you mentioned home fragrance for example. Home fragrance is running up in the month of October versus a year ago. And that's a big turn from what we saw in September and frankly in Q3 where it was down significantly. So we've seen the turn in that business already in the month of October. Certainly the October results we've taken into account as we've guided for Q4. and we don't believe that we're basing our guidance on a hockey stick or something like that for Q4.

事實上，如果有什麼變化的話，那就是9月的情況比去年7月和8月好一些。但如果這麼說你能理解的話，那就是它與我們的預測有很大出入。當我們回顧十月至今的市場狀況時，我認為十月份的表現絕對不錯，例如你提到的居家香氛。與去年同期相比，10月份家居香氛的需求量有所上升。這與我們9月以及坦白說第三季看到的情況相比，是一個很大的轉變，當時的情況是大幅下降。所以，我們在十月就已經看到了該行業的轉變。當然，我們在製定第四季度業績指引時已經考慮到了10月份的業績。而我們認為，我們對第四季的業績指引並非基於曲棍球棒曲線或其他類似指標。

Okay, that helps a lot. And I will pass it on from there. Thank you so much.

好的，這很有幫助。然後我會把它轉交給其他人。太感謝了。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. A replay of today's call will be available later today on the company's website at ir.newelbrands.com. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。今天電話會議的錄音稍後將在公司網站ir.newelbrands.com上提供。您現在可以斷開連線了。祝你有美好的一天。