諾威品牌 (NWL) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Newell's Brands fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference call is being recorded. A live webcast of this call is available at ir.newellbrands.com.

早上好，歡迎參加 Newell's Brands 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的電話會議正在錄音。本次電話會議的現場網路直播可在 ir.newellbrands.com 上觀看。

I will now turn the call over to Joanne Freiberger, SVP, Investor Relations and Chief Communications Officer. Ms. Frieberger, you may begin.

現在，我將電話轉交給投資者關係高級副總裁兼首席通訊官 Joanne Freiberger。弗里伯格女士，您可以開始啦。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Newell Brands' fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call. On the call with me today are Chris Peterson, our President and CEO; and Mark Erceg, our CFO.

謝謝。大家早安，歡迎參加 Newell Brands 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天與我一起通話的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Peterson；以及我們的財務長 Mark Erceg。

Before we begin, I'd like to inform you that during today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results and outcomes may differ materially, and we undertake no obligation to update forward-looking statements. I refer you to the cautionary language and risk factors available in our earnings release, our Form 10-K, Form 10-Q, and other SEC filings available on our Investor Relations website for a further discussion of the factors affecting forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我想告訴大家，在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性的陳述，其中涉及風險和不確定性。實際結果和成果可能有重大差異，我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。請您參閱我們的收益報告、10-K 表、10-Q 表以及我們投資者關係網站上提供的其他 SEC 文件中的警示性用語和風險因素，以進一步討論影響前瞻性陳述的因素。

Please also recognize that today's remarks will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including those referred to as normalized measures. We believe that these non-GAAP measures are useful to investors, although they should not be considered superior to the measures presented in accordance with GAAP. Explanations of these non-GAAP measures are available, and reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures can be found in today's earnings release and tables that were furnished to the SEC.

還要注意，今天的演講將涉及某些非公認會計準則財務指標，包括所謂的標準化指標。我們認為，這些非公認會計準則指標對投資者是有用的，儘管它們不應被認為優於按照公認會計準則提出的指標。這些非公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的解釋均可查閱，而公認會計準則 (GAAP) 和非公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標之間的對帳表可在今天的收益報告和提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的表格中找到。

Thank you. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Chris.

謝謝。說完這些，我會把電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Joanne. Good morning, everyone. During our call this morning, we would like to do several things. First, we will walk you through the substantial and impressive progress we made against our 2024 business and financial priorities, which was driven by the disciplined implementation of our new corporate strategy, operating model, and culture transformation.

謝謝你，喬安妮。大家早安。在今天早上的會議中，我們想做幾件事。首先，我們將向您介紹我們在 2024 年業務和財務重點方面所取得的實質和令人矚目的進展，這是由我們新公司策略、營運模式和文化轉型的嚴格實施所推動的。

Second, we'll provide some additional perspective on tariffs, and how we're approaching both the challenges and opportunities they present us with. Third, we'll share our business and financial priorities for 2025. Finally, after my prepared remarks, Mark will provide additional perspective on our 2024 fourth-quarter and full-year results and share our preliminary financial guidance for 2025.

其次，我們將提供一些有關關稅的其他觀點，以及我們如何應對關稅給我們帶來的挑戰和機會。第三，我們將分享 2025 年的業務和財務重點。最後，在我準備好的發言之後，馬克將對我們 2024 年第四季和全年業績提供更多看法，並分享我們對 2025 年的初步財務指導。

Let's start with an update on how we performed against the five key business and financial priorities we established at the start of 2024. As we look back on the year, we believe we have successfully delivered against our top priority, which was to fully operationalize our new strategy and operating model while strengthening our culture.

首先，讓我們來更新一下我們在 2024 年初確定的五項關鍵業務和財務重點方面的表現。回顧過去的一年，我們相信我們已經成功實現了我們的首要任務，那就是全面實施我們的新策略和營運模式，同時加強我們的文化。

At this point, our strategy has been rolled out to all business segments, regions, brands, and functions. We have fully implemented our new operating model with brand management in place for our top 25 brands, One Newell geographic go-to-market organizations in place, and all supply chain and back-office functions centralized and largely integrated. We have upgraded talent in key roles and strengthened our culture, which is focused on high performance, innovation, and inclusion.

至此，我們的策略已推廣到所有業務部門、地區、品牌和職能部門。我們已全面實施新的營運模式，對我們的前 25 個品牌實施品牌管理，建立 One Newell 地理上市組織，並集中和高度整合所有供應鏈和後台職能。我們提升了關鍵崗位的人才，並加強了注重高績效、創新和包容的文化。

Doing so has allowed us to make significant progress towards unlocking the full potential of the organization and our portfolio of leading brands. Although we still have work to do, the new strategy, operating model changes, and cultural transformation are clearly yielding positive results as evidenced by the fact that we reported another strong quarter with all key financial metrics in line or above our guidance range.

這樣做使我們在充分發揮組織和領先品牌組合的潛力方面取得了重大進展。儘管我們仍有工作要做，但新策略、營運模式變化和文化轉型顯然正在產生積極成果，這一點從我們報告的另一個強勁季度表現中可以看出，所有關鍵財務指標均達到或超過了我們的指導範圍。

Improving top-line performance was a key objective for 2024. And against that goal, we made noteworthy progress. Fourth-quarter and full-year core sales growth was in line with our expectations with sequential improvement in the second half versus the first half of 2024. Importantly, core sales trends improved across all six business units with three turning positive for the year as innovation drove annual core sales growth in the Baby, Writing, and Commercial businesses.

提高營收績效是 2024 年的一個主要目標。為了實現這一目標，我們取得了顯著的進展。第四季和全年核心銷售成長符合我們的預期，下半年與 2024 年上半年相比有所改善。重要的是，由於創新推動了嬰兒、寫作和商業業務的年度核心銷售成長，所有六個業務部門的核心銷售趨勢均有所改善，其中三個業務部門的銷售趨勢全年轉為正值。

In fact, both the Learning and Development segment and our International business as a whole have positive core sales growth in all four quarters of 2024, which we believe is solid evidence that our One Newell operating model is working. While we are pleased with the strong progress in 2024, we are not satisfied with the 3.4% core sales decline for the company, even as we continued to experience category contraction.

事實上，學習與發展部門以及我們的整個國際業務在 2024 年的所有四個季度都實現了核心銷售額的正成長，我們相信這是我們的 One Newell 營運模式發揮作用的有力證據。雖然我們對 2024 年的強勁進展感到滿意，但我們對公司核心銷售下降 3.4% 並不滿意，即使我們繼續經歷品類萎縮。

We remain laser-focused on returning the company to sustainable and profitable growth and more broad-based share gains, and that is precisely why we have been moving swiftly in implementing our strategy. Dramatically improving the structural economics of our business was our third top priority, and there, we drove exceptionally strong gross and operating margin improvement.

我們始終專注於讓公司恢復可持續的獲利成長和更廣泛的份額成長，這正是我們迅速實施策略的原因。大幅改善我們業務的結構性經濟狀況是我們的第三大優先事項，在此基礎上，我們實現了異​​常強勁的毛利率和營業利潤率提升。

Normalized gross margin improved sequentially each quarter and increased 460 basis points to 34.1% for the full year compared with 2023. Outstanding productivity, pricing, and product mix delivered the highest full-year normalized gross margin reported since 2018. Normalized operating margin of 8.2% improved by 210 basis points, which was driven by improved gross margin and was partially offset by higher A&P spend, incentive compensation, and wage inflation.

標準化毛利率每季都較上季提高，全年與 2023 年相比增加了 460 個基點，達到 34.1%。出色的生產力、定價和產品組合實現了自 2018 年以來最高的全年標準化毛利率。標準化營業利潤率為 8.2%，提高了 210 個基點，這得益於毛利率提高，但被廣告和促銷支出、激勵性薪酬和工資上漲部分抵消。

Since introducing our new corporate strategy in June 2023, we have reported six consecutive quarters of year-over-year gross margin improvement and five consecutive quarters of year-over-year operating margin improvement. Newell's strong margin performance helped drive substantial progress across our fourth key priority for 2024, which was improving cash flow and strengthening our balance sheet.

自 2023 年 6 月推出新的公司策略以來，我們已連續六個季度報告毛利率同比增長，連續五個季度報告營業利潤率同比增長。Newell 強勁的利潤率表現幫助推動了我們 2024 年的第四個關鍵優先事項取得實質進展，即改善現金流量和加強我們的資產負債表。

Strong double-digit normalized EBITDA growth and an eight-day improvement in our cash conversion cycle generated nearly $500 million operating cash flow, which in turn allowed us to reduce debt and delever the balance sheet by nearly one full turn, allowing us to end the year with a leverage ratio of 4.9 times.

強勁的兩位數標準化 EBITDA 成長和現金轉換週期縮短八天產生了近 5 億美元的經營現金流，這反過來又使我們能夠減少債務，並將資產負債表的槓桿率降低近一倍，從而使我們在年底的槓桿率為 4.9 倍。

Our last stated goal for 2024 was to reduce complexity through business process redesign with a focus on simplification and accountability, technology standardization and enablement, and continued SKU count reduction. Consistent with this objective, we further consolidated our ERP environment; eliminated 35 legal entities; reduced brands from 80 to about 55; rationalized almost 2,000 additional SKUs, bringing us below 20,000 versus over 100,000 in 2018; and we reduced the supply base by 25% over the past two years.

我們 2024 年的最後一個目標是透過重新設計業務流程來降低複雜性，重點是簡化和問責、技術標準化和支援以及持續減少 SKU 數量。為了實現這一目標，我們進一步鞏固了我們的 ERP 環境；取消了35個法人實體；品牌從80個減少到55個左右；合理化增加了近 2,000 個 SKU，使庫存量從 2018 年的 100,000 多個減少到 20,000 個以下；我們在過去兩年將供應基礎減少了25%。

Notably, we also reduced the number of distributors across Latin America, Europe, and Asia by 33% last year. And finally, we dramatically exceeded our weighted forecast accuracy target, which helped us achieve a 95% global fill rate, the highest in Newell's history. Now let's shift to the elephant in the room, which, of course, is tariffs.

值得注意的是，去年我們也將拉丁美洲、歐洲和亞洲的經銷商數量減少了 33%。最後，我們大大超越了加權預測準確度目標，這幫助我們實現了 95% 的全球填充率，這是 Newell 史上最高的。現在讓我們來討論一個顯而易見的話題，那就是關稅。

As we've discussed previously, Newell has been actively pursuing a tariff mitigation strategy for some time, which we discussed at length during our second-quarter earnings call and which we believe leaves us better positioned than most to navigate both the challenges and opportunities being presented by recent announcements. As a reminder, we manufacture about half of our products and source the remainder.

正如我們之前所討論過的，Newell 一直在積極推行關稅緩解戰略，我們在第二季度財報電話會議上對此進行了詳細討論，我們相信這使我們比大多數公司更有能力應對最近公告中提出的挑戰和機遇。提醒一下，我們自己生產大約一半的產品，其餘部分則自行採購。

For the last few years, we have been primarily working to reduce our dependence on China sourcing. We began accelerating our efforts about a year ago, and we are continuing to pursue the following actions. First, we're economically feasible. We in-sourced production from China and invested in Newell's existing manufacturing network. We've already completed multiple in-sourcing projects, including both finished goods and raw material components in the Writing, Baby, and Home businesses.

在過去幾年裡，我們一直致力於減少對中國採購的依賴。我們大約在一年前就開始加快努力，並且正在繼續採取以下行動。首先，我們在經濟上是可行的。我們從中國採購生產並投資紐維爾現有的製造網絡。我們已經完成多個內部採購項目，包括寫作、嬰兒和家庭業務中的成品和原料組件。

Second, we have been shifting production out of China and into alternate geographies through both existing and new suppliers, which we have been proactively qualifying for major purchase pools. At this point, we have evaluated country of origin for all Chinese suppliers and are not signing on any new suppliers that do not have existing or defined plans already in place to establish manufacturing capabilities outside of China.

其次，我們一直在透過現有和新的供應商將生產從中國轉移到其他地區，我們一直在積極地使這些供應商有資格進入主要採購市場。目前，我們已經評估了所有中國供應商的原產國，並且不會與任何沒有現有或已確定的計劃在中國境外建立製造能力的新供應商簽約。

As a result, sourced finished goods that Newell imports from China to the United States now only account for about 15% of the company's total cost of goods sold, including a large portion of baby products that are currently exempt from 301 tariffs to provide relief for young families. Importantly, based on the work already in progress, we are on track for this exposure to imports from China to be less than 10% by the end of this year.

因此，紐維爾從中國進口到美國的採購製成品目前僅占公司總銷售成本的15%左右，其中包括很大一部分嬰兒用品，這些產品目前已獲得301關稅豁免，以減輕年輕家庭的負擔。重要的是，根據已在進行的工作，我們預計在今年年底前將來自中國的進口量佔比降至 10% 以下。

With respect to Mexico and Canada, we are monitoring the situation closely. Imports from Mexico to the US represent about 5% of Newell's total cost of goods sold, while imports from Canada are negligible. While we recognize this will likely be an area of ongoing uncertainty, we also believe it can be a potential source of competitive advantage. For example, there are several categories where competitors continue to source from China, while Newell has significant US manufacturing capability, including writing, coolers, food storage, and candles to name a few.

關於墨西哥和加拿大，我們正在密切關注局勢。從墨西哥進口到美國的商品約佔紐維爾總銷售成本的 5%，而從加拿大進口的商品則微不足道。雖然我們認識到這可能是一個持續不確定的領域，但我們也相信它可能成為競爭優勢的潛在來源。例如，在多個產品類別中，競爭對手仍繼續從中國採購，而 Newell 則在美國擁有顯著的製造能力，其中包括書寫工具、冷卻器、食品儲藏和蠟燭等。

Our strategic shift in 2023 to a One Newell supply chain model and continued investment in Newell's expanded US manufacturing footprint positions us to be competitively advantaged in certain product categories, and we are currently having active dialogue with several strategic retailers to ensure they are aware of our strong US manufacturing footprint, which has some additional capacity, which can be quickly brought online on a first-come, first-serve basis.

我們的策略將於 2023 年轉變，轉向「One Newell」供應鏈模式，並持續投資於 Newell 在美國不斷擴大的製造業務，這使我們在某些​​產品類別中佔據競爭優勢，目前，我們正在與幾家戰略零售商進行積極對話，以確保他們了解我們在美國強大的製造業務，該業務擁有一些額外的產能，可以按照先到先得的原則快速上。

Turning to 2025, we expect the macroeconomic backdrop to be dynamic. Lower-income consumers remain under pressure from the cumulative impact of inflation over the last several years. The recent substantial appreciation of the US dollar, along with evolving tax policies and potential tariffs and trade regulations in the US, contribute to a fluid and complex operating environment. Within this context, we plan to drive continued strong progress on the turnaround agenda and have established five major priorities for 2025.

展望 2025 年，我們預期宏觀經濟背景將會充滿活力。低收入消費者仍然承受著過去幾年通膨累積影響的壓力。近期美元大幅升值，加上美國稅收政策的不斷變化以及潛在的關稅和貿易法規，導致經營環境變得不穩定且複雜。在此背景下，我們計劃繼續大力推動扭轉議程，並確定了2025年的五個主要優先事項。

First and foremost, our goal is to return the company to top-line growth through continued execution of the corporate strategy with emphasis on product and commercial innovation, distribution expansion, and international growth. On the innovation front, we are launching and investing behind an increasing number of Tier 1 and Tier 2 mid- and high-priced new products across the business. I'll share a few examples of these with you today.

首先，我們的目標是透過繼續執行企業策略，重點關注產品和商業創新、分銷擴張和國際成長，使公司恢復營收成長。在創新方面，我們正在推出並投資越來越多的一級和二級中高價位新產品。今天我將與大家分享幾個例子。

In the Baby business, we launched the Graco SmartSense soothing bassinet and swing, which detect and respond to babies' cries in seconds with soothing sound and motion in the second half of 2024. The product is off to a strong start, and we plan to expand distribution and fully support it throughout 2025.

在嬰兒業務方面，我們在 2024 年下半年推出了 Graco SmartSense 安撫搖籃和鞦韆，它可以在幾秒鐘內檢測嬰兒的哭聲並透過安撫的聲音和動作做出反應。該產品開局強勁，我們計劃擴大分銷並在 2025 年為其提供全力支援。

Just last month, Graco launched the new EasyTurn 360 two-in-one rotating convertible car seat that will help parents easily get their little one in and out of the car. The seat features a 360-degree one-hand turn and has a slim design to save precious space in the car. In our Writing business, building on the successful first year of Sharpie Creative Markers, we are excited to expand the line with 12 new earth tone colors and a new fine tip for enhanced precision and outlining. These new products also provide the vibrant paint-like ink in the control of a marker that consumers love.

就在上個月，Graco 推出了新款 EasyTurn 360 二合一旋轉可轉換汽車座椅，可幫助父母輕鬆地將孩子抱進抱出汽車。此座椅可單手 360 度旋轉，且設計纖薄，可節省車內寶貴的空間。在我們的書寫業務中，在 Sharpie Creative Markers 成功推出的第一年的基礎上，我們很高興地擴展了產品線，增加了 12 種新的土色調和新的細筆尖，以提高精度和描邊能力。這些新產品還提供了消費者喜愛的記號筆控制中的鮮豔的類似油漆的墨水。

Our research confirms that creative enthusiasts are eager for even more color variety, and this expansion delivers exactly that, offering new ways to blend, layer and express creativity. Another important Writing business innovation launch will be with EXPO, the leader in presentation markers.

我們的研究證實，創意愛好者渴望獲得更多的色彩變化，而這項擴展正是滿足了這一點，提供了混合、分層和表達創造力的新方式。另一項重要的寫作業務創新發布將與演示標記領域的領導者 EXPO 合作。

We developed a proprietary ink designed to enhance vibrancy and color on EXPO dry race markers. This new ink improves readability from across classrooms and conference rooms while expanding usability beyond traditional whiteboards to glass, plastic, and other clear surfaces. In addition, we are launching a new wet-erase liner under the EXPO brand that creates a whole new segment of semi-permanent markers.

我們開發了一種專有墨水，旨在增強 EXPO 乾式比賽標記的活力和色彩。這種新墨水提高了教室和會議室的可讀性，同時將可用性從傳統白板擴展到玻璃、塑膠和其他透明表面。此外，我們也推出了 EXPO 品牌下的新型濕擦記號筆，開創了半永久性記號筆的全新領域。

Rubbermaid Commercial Products will be launched in the first of several new brewery farm products, a line of animal feeders that are extremely durable and easy to clean. Importantly, this product line is based on significant front-end consumer research as our team spent time talking to and visiting hundreds of farmers over 18 months and incorporated this insight into the product development. These animal feeders have a market-leading 10-year warranty and are made in the USA.

Rubbermaid 商業產品公司將首次推出幾款新型啤酒農場產品，這是一系列極其耐用且易於清潔的動物餵食器。重要的是，該產品線基於大量的前端消費者研究，因為我們的團隊花了 18 個月的時間與數百名農民交談和拜訪，並將這些見解融入產品開發中。這些動物餵食器擁有市場領先的 10 年保固期，並且在美國製造。

Our Kitchen business launched the Oster Extreme Mix professional blender with first-to-market patented titanium-coated blades. This lab-tested powerful 1,600-watt high-performance motor and reversible motor technology unique to the Oster brand processes even the toughest ingredients in a matter of seconds. Oster Extreme Mix will be available in both the US and Mexico.

我們的廚房業務推出了 Oster Extreme Mix 專業攪拌機，該攪拌機配備了市場上首款獲得專利的鈦塗層刀片。這款經過實驗室測試的強大的 1,600 瓦高性能馬達和 Oster 品牌獨有的可逆馬達技術可以在幾秒鐘內處理最堅硬的成分。Oster Extreme Mix 將在美國和墨西哥上市。

Later this year, the Kitchen business will launch Rubbermaid EasyStore food storage, which builds on years of consumer feedback to deliver a durable and easy-to-use solution that stacks simply and is built to store your way. This product will offer a secure-grip lid that opens with ease yet seals securely and comes in several shapes and sizes to efficiently store all of your leftovers.

今年晚些時候，廚房業務將推出 Rubbermaid EasyStore 食品儲存系統，該系統基於多年的消費者反饋，提供了一種耐用且易於使用的解決方案，可簡單堆放，並可按照您的方式進行儲存。該產品將提供一個安全抓握的蓋子，可輕鬆打開且密封牢固，並具有多種形狀和尺寸，可有效存放所有剩菜。

In our Home Fragrance business, this is an exciting year for Yankee Candle as we continue to innovate and elevate our brand. First, we are revitalizing our core portfolio with the Yankee Candle relaunch, introducing a soy wax blend for a cleaner burn and an even better fragrance experience for our consumers. These year-round favorite fragrances are still housed in our iconic apothecary jar vessel now enhanced with beautiful new label designs that further reinforce our fragrance first strategy in Home Fragrance.

在我們的家居香氛業務中，這是 Yankee Candle 令人興奮的一年，因為我們不斷創新並提升我們的品牌。首先，我們透過重新推出 Yankee Candle 來重振我們的核心產品組合，引入大豆蠟混合物，使燃燒更清潔，並為我們的消費者帶來更好的香味體驗。這些全年最受歡迎的香水仍然存放在我們標誌性的藥瓶中，現在採用了漂亮的新標籤設計，進一步強化了我們在家庭香水方面的「香水優先」策略。

We are also introducing Yankee Candle Premium, a sophisticated new line designed to attract a younger consumer in our Aesthetic Admirer segment. We know this consumer is willing to pay more for high-quality products, and this collection delivers, featuring custom glass vessels with artisanal watercolor graphics, proprietary soy wax blend, and seven new fragrances designed by master perfumers.

我們還推出了 Yankee Candle Premium，這是一款精緻的新產品，旨在吸引美學崇拜者群體中的年輕消費者。我們知道這些消費者願意為高品質的產品支付更高的價格，而這個系列產品就滿足了他們的要求，包括帶有手工水彩圖案的定製玻璃容器、專有的大豆蠟混合物，以及由調香大師設計的七種新香水。

Within the Outdoor and Recreation segment remain -- product innovations are targeted for 2026. We have some 2025 commercial initiatives with exciting influencers, namely Ally Love, renowned fitness expert, for Contigo brands; and Country music sensation, Kane Brown, for Coleman brands. These are just a few examples of the increased innovative product launches for 2025 that we expect to drive our first priority of returning the company to top-line growth during the back half of this year.

戶外和娛樂領域仍將產品創新目標定在 2026 年。我們與令人興奮的影響者合作制定了一些 2025 年商業計劃，例如針對 Contigo 品牌的著名健身專家 Ally Love；以及鄉村音樂天才 Kane Brown，為 Coleman 品牌效力。這些只是 2025 年創新產品發布的幾個例子，我們預計這些產品將推動我們的首要任務，在今年下半年讓公司恢復營收成長。

The second 2025 priority is to drive operating margin improvement well ahead of our evergreen financial model, which calls for a 50-basis-point improvement each year. By building on the meaningful gains achieved in 2024, we expect the continuation of our fuel cost-savings program and other cost-savings initiatives to more than offset the impact of inflation and the increase in A&P we have planned to support our innovation program.

2025 年的第二個優先事項是推動營業利潤率提高，遠遠超出我們的常青財務模型，該模型要求每年提高 50 個基點。透過鞏固 2024 年的重大進展，我們預計繼續實施燃料成本節約計劃和其他成本節約舉措將足以抵消通貨膨脹的影響以及我們為支持創新計劃而計劃增加的 A&P 費用。

Third, continue to delever the balance sheet and improve the cash conversion cycle. Within this, we are planning to fully fund all the necessary high-return capability improvement and restructuring projects to build a multi-year productivity improvement runway. Fourth, drive operational excellence via complexity reduction, technology standardization, and enablement and continued SKU count optimization. And lastly, advance our transformation into a high-performance, innovative, and inclusive culture by exemplifying our values leadership, passion for winning, integrity, ownership, and teamwork.

第三是繼續去槓桿，改善現金週轉週期。在此基礎上，我們計劃全額資助所有必要的高回報能力改進和重組項目，以建造多年的生產力改進跑道。第四，透過降低複雜性、技術標準化、支援和持續的 SKU 數量優化來推動卓越營運。最後，透過體現我們的價值觀、領導力、對勝利的熱情、誠信、主人翁精神和團隊合作精神，推動我們向高績效、創新和包容的文化轉型。

In summary, during 2024, amidst a challenging operating environment with contracting categories, foreign exchange headwinds, and continued inflation, we delivered significant year-over-year sales performance improvement as we strengthen company's front-end selling and marketing capabilities, drove very strong gross and operating margin improvement while purposely increasing our level of A&P investment, and we meaningfully delevered the balance sheet through both debt reduction and EBITDA growth.

總而言之，在 2024 年這個充滿挑戰的經營環境中，包括品類收縮、外匯逆風和持續的通脹，我們通過加強公司的前端銷售和營銷能力，實現了銷售業績的同比顯著提升，在有目的地提高我們的廣告和宣傳投資水平的同時，推動了非常強勁的毛利率和利潤率改善，並且我們通過減少債務和資產槓桿顯著性地降低了資產的淨率。

While much work remains and the macroeconomic backdrop is still uncertain, we are laser-focused on returning the company to sustainable top-line growth, continuing to drive above algorithm operating margin improvement and strengthening the balance sheet.

儘管還有很多工作要做，而且宏觀經濟背景仍然不確定，但我們專注於讓公司恢復可持續的營收成長，繼續推動高於演算法的營業利潤率改善並加強資產負債表。

Finally, I want to recognize and thank our incredible team for their hard work and dedication in building our 2024 goals. Their contributions have been pivotal to our success, and we deeply appreciate the commitment, grit, and passion they bring to Newell Brands every day. The measurable progress on our strategy and turnaround agenda enhances our confidence that we are taking the right actions to strengthen the organization, improve its financial performance, and create value for our shareholders.

最後，我要認可並感謝我們出色的團隊為實現 2024 年目標所付出的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。他們的貢獻對我們的成功至關重要，我們深深感謝他們每天為 Newell Brands 帶來的承諾、勇氣和熱情。我們的策略和扭轉議程取得了可衡量的進展，增強了我們的信心，讓我們相信我們正在採取正確的行動來加強組織，改善其財務業績，並為我們的股東創造價值。

With that, I'll now hand the call over to Mark.

說完這些，我現在將電話交給馬克。

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. As Chris indicated, we believe that Newell's new corporate strategy is driving positive momentum and laying a strong foundation for continued growth. Consistent with this, fourth-quarter core sales were minus 3% with pricing in international markets being a meaningful contributor to Q4 core sales performance. While we will not be satisfied until we are consistently growing more sales, we were still encouraged by this result for two reasons beyond the ones Chris already cited in his prepared remarks.

謝謝，克里斯。大家早安。正如克里斯所言，我們相信紐維爾的新企業策略正在推動積極的勢頭，並為持續成長奠定堅實的基礎。與此一致，第四季核心銷售下降 3%，國際市場定價對第四季核心銷售業績有重大貢獻。儘管我們在實現銷售額持續成長之前不會感到滿意，但除了克里斯在準備好的發言中提到的原因之外，還有兩個原因讓我們對這一結果感到鼓舞。

First, it was comfortably within our guidance range, which shows our ability to accurately forecast the business continues to improve. Second, this brought Newell's 2024 back-half core sales rate of minus 2.3%, which represents another half-year sequential improvement in top-line core sales trends. Recall that during the first half of 2023, which immediately preceded the development and adoption of our new corporate strategy, Newell's core sales run rate was minus 14.7%.

首先，它完全在我們的指導範圍內，這表明我們能夠準確預測業務的持續改善。其次，這使得 Newell 的 2024 年下半年核心銷售率為負 2.3%，這意味著營收核心銷售趨勢又連續半年改善。回想一下，在我們制定和採用新的公司策略之前的 2023 年上半年，Newell 的核心銷售運作率為- 14.7%。

In the three halves since that time, namely the second half of 2023, the first half of 2024, and now the second half of 2024, core sales have been minus 9.3%, minus 4.5%, and minus 2.3%, respectively, which we believe represents good progress in Newell's turnaround story. Net sales in the fourth quarter included a 2.6% currency headwind, about 0.5 point of category exits, divestitures, and store closures.

自那時以來的三個半年，即 2023 年下半年、2024 年上半年以及現在的 2024 年下半年，核心銷售額分別為負 9.3%、負 4.5% 和負 2.3%，我們認為這代表著 Newell 的扭虧為盈取得了良好進展。第四季的淨銷售額包括 2.6% 的貨幣逆風，約 0.5 個百分點的品類退出、資產剝離和門市關閉。

Turning to gross margin, Q4 represented another quarter of significant expansion. Normalized gross margin expanded 350 basis points to 34.6%, which represented our sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvement. Productivity savings and positive pricing more than offset headwinds from lower sales volume, inflation, and foreign exchange.

談到毛利率，第四季又出現了大幅擴張。標準化毛利率擴大 350 個基點至 34.6%，這是我們連續第六個季度實現同比增長。生產力節約和積極定價足以抵銷銷售量下降、通貨膨脹和外匯帶來的不利影響。

Importantly, on a two-year stacked basis, fourth-quarter normalized gross margin was up 800 basis points, which we believe is clear evidence that the transformation of Newell's structural economics envisioned six quarters ago when our corporate turnaround was initiated is proceeding at pace. During the fourth quarter, Newell's normalized operating margin rose 70 basis points compared to the previous year, reaching 7.1%.

重要的是，以兩年累積計算，第四季度的標準化毛利率上升了 800 個基點，我們認為，這清楚地表明，六個季度前我們啟動企業轉型計劃時設想的 Newell 結構性經濟轉型正在快速推進。第四季度，Newell的標準化營業利潤率比前一年上升了70個基點，達到7.1%。

The increase versus last year was due to higher gross margin and ongoing organizational restructuring-related savings, which were partially offset by a nearly 20% increase in year-over-year A&P investments in dollar terms and higher incentive compensation costs. Net interest expense of $72 million represented an increase of $2 million from the prior-year period and a normalized tax benefit of $4 million was recorded in Q4. Q4 normalized diluted per share came in at $0.16, which was above our guidance range of $0.11 to $0.14.

與去年同期相比，這一增長是由於毛利率提高和持續的組織重組相關節約，但被廣告和促銷投資（以美元計算）同比增長近 20% 以及激勵薪酬成本提高所部分抵消。淨利息支出為 7,200 萬美元，較去年同期增加 200 萬美元，第四季度記錄了 400 萬美元的正常化稅收優惠。Q4 標準化攤薄每股收益為 0.16 美元，高於我們的預期範圍 0.11 美元至 0.14 美元。

Before moving to the 2025 preliminary outlook, there are just a few things in the full-year 2024 financial results, we'd like to comment on, the first of which is gross margin. Since the Jarden acquisition in 2016, Newell Brands' normalized gross margin has declined every year up to and including last year, while normalized gross margin dropped from 30.2% in 2022 to 29.5% in 2023. However, during 2024, normalized gross margin positively inflected in a dramatic way, expanding by 460 basis points to 34.1%, allowing Newell Brands to quickly regain multiple years of gross margin loss.

在轉向 2025 年初步展望之前，我們想對 2024 年全年財務業績中的幾件事發表評論，其中第一件就是毛利率。自 2016 年收購 Jarden 以來，Newell Brands 的標準化毛利率每年都在下降，直至去年，而標準化毛利率從 2022 年的 30.2% 下降到 2023 年的 29.5%。然而，在2024年，標準化毛利率出現了顯著的正向變化，擴大了460個基點至34.1%，使得Newell Brands迅速收復了多年的毛利率損失。

The sharp reversal in normalized gross margin was made possible by the development and implementation of a highly focused and compelling corporate strategy that was underpinned by a comprehensive capability assessment, which clearly delineated where to play and how to win choices, which, among other things, called for the prioritization of top brands and top countries, targeted pricing actions, asset-based business mix management, and the development of consumer-driven MPP and HPP product innovations.

正常化毛利率的急劇逆轉得益於高度集中且引人注目的企業戰略的製定和實施，該戰略以全面的能力評估為基礎，明確劃分了競爭領域和取勝之道，其中包括優先考慮頂級品牌和頂級國家、有針對性的定價行動、基於資產的業務組合管理，以及開發消費者驅動的 MPP 和 HPP 產品創新。

These actions, when coupled with another year of world-class productivity efforts by our supply chain and procurement experts was the catalyst that sparked Newell's gross margin recovery and provides a clear roadmap for continued margin expansion. Another area that warrants mentioning is 2024 full-year operating cash flow results. Newell generated $496 million of operating cash flow in 2024, which was driven in part by an eight-day improvement in our year-over-year account conversion cycle.

這些舉措，加上我們供應鏈和採購專家另一年來世界一流的生產力努力，成為了推動 Newell 毛利率復甦的催化劑，並為持續擴大利潤率提供了明確的路線圖。另一個值得一提的領域是 2024 年全年營運現金流結果。2024 年，Newell 創造了 4.96 億美元的營運現金流，部分原因是我們的帳戶轉換週期比去年同期增加了 8 天。

The nearly $500 million of operating cash flow was fractionally below the guidance range provided during the third-quarter earnings call due to a proactive decision to temporarily increase inventory levels in anticipation of a potential port strike, which fortunately was averted. Strong operating cash flow provided the funds necessary to reduce net debt by $175 million. This reduction in net debt in conjunction with a 15% increase in our full-year normalized EBITDA dropped Newell's leverage ratio by nearly one full turn to 4.9 times at year end.

近 5 億美元的營運現金流略低於第三季財報電話會議上提供的指導範圍，因為該公司主動決定暫時增加庫存水準以應對潛在的港口罷工，幸運的是，罷工得以避免。強勁的經營現金流提供了減少1.75億美元淨債務所需的資金。淨債務的減少，加上全年標準化 EBITDA 成長 15%，導致 Newell 的槓桿率在年底下降了近一倍，至 4.9 倍。

The last thing to touch on prior to discussing 2025's preliminary outlook is the debt refinancing transacted during the fourth quarter. Specifically, $1.25 billion of upcoming maturities were refinanced into two new tranches, $750 million due in 2030 and $500 million due in 2032. The offering was 6 times oversubscribed, which allowed us to capture an attractive all-in blended rate below 6.5%.

在討論 2025 年的初步前景之前，最後要談的是第四季的債務再融資交易。具體而言，12.5 億美元的即將到期的債務被再融資為兩筆新的款項，其中 7.5 億美元將於 2030 年到期，5 億美元將於 2032 年到期。此次發行獲得了6倍的超額認購，這使我們能夠獲得低於6.5%的頗具吸引力的全包混合利率。

Out of the original $2 billion of debt, which was curing in April of 2026, $1.25 billion is still outstanding. Our intention is to refinance that balance at some point during 2025, likely in two new roughly equally sized tranches maturing in 2031 and 2033, respectively. This would take advantage of two open runs on our debt maturity ladder and leave us with a very logical, and we believe manageable, debt horizon.

在最初的 20 億美元債務中，有 12.5 億美元仍未償還。我們的目的是在 2025 年的某個時候對該餘額進行再融資，可能分為兩個新的規模大致相等的部分，分別於 2031 年和 2033 年到期。這將利用我們債務到期階梯上的兩次開放擠兌，讓我們擁有一個非常合理且我們認為可控的債務期限。

Typically, during our fourth-quarter earnings call, we provided a 2025 outlook, which we will once again do today, but this time with an important caveat, namely the discussion which follows is best characterized as being a preliminary 2025 outlook. This is because Newell Brands is a large global geographic footprint, across which we purchase, manufacture, and sell billions of dollars with the raw materials, component parts, and finished goods.

通常，在我們的第四季度財報電話會議上，我們會提供 2025 年的展望，今天我們將再次這樣做，但這次有一個重要的警告，即接下來的討論最好被描述為初步的 2025 年展望。這是因為 Newell Brands 在全球擁有龐大的地理覆蓋範圍，我們在全球採購、製造和銷售價值數十億美元的原材料、零件和成品。

As such, we are subject to direct impacts from changes in global trade policy and tariffs and any associated second or third derivative effects, such as currency movements or shifts in consumer purchasing behavior, which would be exceedingly difficult, if not impossible, to accurately predict. Therefore, we have chosen to provide preliminary 2025 guidance without including any impact from the recently announced 25% tariffs against Mexico and Canada, which were postponed 30 days to allow for further negotiations or the 10% tariffs enacted in China earlier this week. As trade policy decisions come into view and solidify throughout the year, updates will be provided as appropriate.

因此，我們會受到全球貿易政策和關稅變化的直接影響以及任何相關的二階或三階衍生效應，例如貨幣變動或消費者購買行為的轉變，而這些影響極難甚至不可能準確預測。因此，我們選擇提供 2025 年的初步指引，其中不包含最近宣布的對墨西哥和加拿大徵收 25% 關稅的影響（這些關稅被推遲 30 天以進行進一步談判）或本週早些時候中國實施的 10% 關稅。隨著貿易政策決定在全年逐漸出台和鞏固，我們將根據需要提供更新。

With that understanding, we expect the following for 2025. Core sales are expected to be between minus 2% and plus 1%. Since we continue to measure our progress in halves instead of quarters, we expect sequential improvement, with the first half being down low single digits and the back half turning slightly positive. Within this core sales range is approximately 1 point of low-margin business or residual tails of non-strategic brands we've chosen to proactively walk away from.

基於此認識，我們預期 2025 年將出現以下情況。預計核心銷售額將下降 2% 至上升 1% 之間。由於我們繼續以半年而不是季度來衡量我們的進展，我們預計會出現連續的改善，其中上半年將下降個位數，而下半年將略有正增長。在這個核心銷售範圍內，大約有 1 個點的低利潤業務或非策略品牌的殘餘部分是我們選擇主動放棄的。

Net sales are expected to decline between 4% and 2% with an anticipated 2% to 4% headwind from unfavorable foreign exchange and business exits. Importantly, we expect both Learning and Development, and International to have a second consecutive year of core sales growth and Home and Commercial to return to core sales growth in the back half of the year.

預計淨銷售額將下降 4% 至 2%，不利的外匯和業務退出預計將帶來 2% 至 4% 的阻力。重要的是，我們預計學習與發展和國際業務將連續第二年實現核心銷售成長，而家居和商業業務將在下半年恢復核心銷售成長。

We expect Outdoor and Recreation to improve in 2025, but return to core sales growth is unlikely until 2026 when several key innovations are expected to launch. This outlook assumes that Newell's categories improved from a low single-digit decline in 2024 to essentially flat in 2025. We also believe retailers will continue to manage inventory tightly in durable and discretionary categories. But that said, this should not cause any meaningful destocking or restocking during the year.

我們預計戶外和娛樂業務將在 2025 年有所改善，但直到 2026 年預計推出幾項關鍵創新後，核心銷售才可能恢復成長。該展望假設紐維爾的類別將從 2024 年的個位數低幅下降改善至 2025 年的基本持平。我們也相信零售商將繼續嚴格管理耐用品和非必需品類別的庫存。但儘管如此，這不應該導致年內任何有意義的去庫存或補庫存。

We expect normalized operating margin between 9% and 9.5%, which at the midpoint represents roughly a 110-basis-point improvement from 2024 and is more than double our evergreen target of a 50-basis-point improvement each year. The increase in normalized operating margin should be driven by higher gross margin and lower SG&A costs.

我們預計標準化營業利潤率在 9% 至 9.5% 之間，中間值代表著比 2024 年提高約 110 個基點，是我們每年提高 50 個基點的常青目標的兩倍多。標準化營業利潤率的提高應得於毛利率的提高和銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）成本的降低。

Within SG&A, overhead costs would be down in 2025, both in dollar terms and as a percentage of sales, but we are once again planning to invest more A&P in both absolute dollar terms and as a percentage of sales. The intention to support higher levels of A&P in 2025 versus 2024 should be interpreted as confidence that more investable opportunities are now at a disposal because the structural economics of the base business are considerably better, and a stronger innovation funnel is starting to come online.

在銷售、一般及行政開支中，間接費用在 2025 年將會下降，無論是以美元計算還是以佔銷售額的百分比計算，但我們再次計劃在廣告與宣傳方面投入更多資金，無論是以絕對美元計算還是以佔銷售額的百分比計算。與 2024 年相比，2025 年支援更高水準的 A&P 的意圖應該被解讀為有信心現在有更多的可投資機會，因為基礎業務的結構經濟狀況要好得多，而且更強大的創新管道開始上線。

Interest expense in 2025 is projected to step up somewhere between $5 million and $10 million, and Newell's effective tax rate is being planned in the low to mid-teens. Please note that this compares to a normalized tax provision of $21 million in 2024. All in, we expect normalized diluted earnings per share in the range of $0.70 to $0.76. At the midpoint of this range, on a tax equivalent basis, this represents an 18% increase versus 2024.

預計 2025 年的利息支出將增加 500 萬美元至 1,000 萬美元之間，而 Newell 的實際稅率計劃在 15% 至 19% 之間。請注意，這與 2024 年 2,100 萬美元的正常稅收準備金相比。總體而言，我們預計每股正常化攤薄收益在 0.70 美元至 0.76 美元之間。以稅收等價基礎計算，此範圍的中間值比 2024 年增加了 18%。

For the year, we expect to generate operating cash flow of $450 million to $500 million, which assumes a high single-digit days reduction in Newell's cash conversion cycle. During fiscal 2025, we plan to invest between $250 million and $270 million of capital expenditures, most of which will be spent on either high-return cost savings projects or to support upcoming consumer product innovations, the providers of which will be an MPP or HPP propositions.

我們預計今年的營運現金流將達到 4.5 億至 5 億美元，這意味著 Newell 的現金週轉週期將縮短個位數。在 2025 財年，我們計劃投資 2.5 億至 2.7 億美元的資本支出，其中大部分將用於高回報的成本節約項目或支持即將到來的消費產品創新，其提供者將是 MPP 或 HPP 提案。

Putting all this together, and combining projected cash flow and EBITDA growth, should translate into a year-end 2025 leverage ratio of about 4.5 times, which is roughly 1.5 turn better than where it sits today and moves us closer to our longer-term ambition of being an investment-grade debt issuer. As it relates to the first quarter of 2025, we expect a core sales decline over 2%, with net sales down 8% to 5%.

綜合所有這些因素，並結合預計現金流和 EBITDA 成長，應意味著 2025 年底的槓桿率約為 4.5 倍，比現在的水平高出約 1.5 倍，使我們更接近成為投資級債務發行人的長期目標。就 2025 年第一季而言，我們預計核心銷售額將下降 2% 以上，淨銷售額將下降 8% 至 5%。

Please note that foreign exchange, and to a lesser extent category exits and divestitures, accounts for the relatively large difference between core net sales in the first quarter. Normalized operating margin in Q1 of 2025, which is typically Newell's smallest quarter of the year due to seasonality and as a result is generally not indicative of full year margin trends, is expected to be between 2% and 4%.

請注意，外匯以及較小程度上的類別退出和資產剝離導致第一季核心淨銷售額與去年同期相比差異較大。2025 年第一季的標準化營業利潤率預計在 2% 至 4% 之間，由於季節性原因，該季度通常是 Newell 一年中利潤率最小的季度，因此通常不能代表全年利潤率趨勢。

Gross margin productivity should remain strong, but the recent material strengthening of the US dollar has created a significant foreign exchange transaction headwind. We are in the process of taking appropriate pricing actions to offset this impact, which should more than counteract this headwind over the remaining three quarters of the year, but first-quarter operating margins will be negatively impacted.

毛利率生產力應該保持強勁，但近期美元大幅走強已造成外匯交易面臨巨大阻力。我們正在採取適當的定價措施來抵消這種影響，這應該可以抵消今年剩餘三個季度的不利影響，但第一季的營業利潤率將受到負面影響。

Finally, we expect a small year-over-year increase in interest expense, a slightly normalized tax benefit, and a normalized loss of $0.09 to $0.06 per share in Q1. In closing, we are excited by the results Newell Brands' highly dedicated and skilled employees delivered in 2024 and are eager to build upon the strong foundation, our new strategy, and subsequent results have established. We will also stay agile and connected as US economic policy unfolds to take advantage of opportunities for growth while minimizing potential negative impacts.

最後，我們預計第一季利息支出將同比小幅增加，稅收優惠將略微正常化，每股虧損將正常化為 0.09 美元至 0.06 美元。最後，我們對 Newell Brands 高度敬業和技術嫻熟的員工在 2024 年取得的成績感到興奮，並渴望在我們建立的堅實基礎、新戰略和後續成果的基礎上再接再厲。隨著美國經濟政策的演變，我們也將保持靈活和聯繫，以利用成長機會，同時將潛在的負面影響降至最低。

Operator, if you could, please open the call for questions.

接線員，如果可以的話，請打開電話詢問。

(Operator Instructions) Bill Chappell, Truist Securities.

（操作員指示）Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。

Thanks, good morning.

謝謝，早安。

Good morning, Bill.

早安，比爾。

Hi. I guess, a focus on organic or core sales growth for '25 and just trying to understand maybe your assumptions of the category growth and across the board, do you expect them to be growing and you're growing with them? Or is this where you think you can actually get market share gain?

你好。我想，重點是 25 年的有機或核心銷售成長，只是想了解您對類別成長的假設以及整體成長，您是否預期它們會成長並且您會隨之成長？或者您認為您在這裡實際上可以獲得市場份額嗎？

And kind of the same question for Outdoor and Rec. I mean, I understand that there are new products and innovation not coming until '26. But is this just -- you can't maintain share until those products come? Or is there any way that that business could actually be flat this year? Just trying -- after two, three years of declines, you would think it flattens out at some point.

對於戶外和娛樂，也有同樣的問題。我的意思是，我知道直到 26 年才會有新產品和創新出現。但這是否只是——在這些產品問世之前你無法維持市場佔有率？或者今年該項業務實際上有可能持平嗎？只是嘗試——經過兩三年的下滑之後，你會認為它在某個時候會趨於平穩。

Yes. So let me try -- thanks, Bill. Let me to take those in turn. So I think from a core sales guidance, we guided the year minus 2% to plus 1% on core sales for '25, which is a significant sequential improvement from this year. And I think as we said in the prepared remarks, we expect the first half of the year to be down low single digits, and we expect the company to return to positive core sales within the back half of the year.

是的。所以讓我嘗試一下——謝謝，比爾。讓我依序討論這些問題。因此，我認為從核心銷售指引來看，我們預計 25 年核心銷售額將下降 2% 至上升 1%，這比今年有了顯著的連續改善。我認為，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，我們預計今年上半年的銷售額將下降個位數，並且我們預計公司的核心銷售額將在下半年恢復正成長。

If you look within that, we're sort of projecting the categories from everything we can see to be about flat. The other important point that Mark mentioned is there's still about a point of business headwind that are businesses that we've proactively chosen to walk away from that are a headwind within core sales that we have not excluded. So if you were to exclude that point of headwind business that are sort of tail businesses that we discontinued, our core sales guidance excluding that would be minus 1% to plus 2% for the year is I think another important point.

如果你仔細觀察，你會發現我們將所能看到的所有事物的類別都投射成了平面。馬克提到的另一個重要點是，仍然存在一些業務逆風，這些業務是我們主動選擇放棄的，是我們並未排除的核心銷售中的逆風。因此，如果排除逆風業務（即我們已停止的尾部業務）的影響，那麼排除這一影響後，我們今年的核心銷售預期將為負 1% 至正 2%，我認為這是另一個重要點。

Because that 1-point headwind is sort of onetime in nature. We don't expect that as we go into '26. Relative to the business units, Learning and Development has returned to core sales growth. That's important because it's our largest profit segment. We've delivered core sales growth in that segment all four quarters of this year, and we expect that segment to deliver core sales growth in '25.

因為從本質上來說，那 1 點逆風是一次性的。當我們進入26年時，我們並不認為會出現這樣的情況。相對於業務部門而言，學習與發展已恢復核心銷售成長。這很重要，因為這是我們最大的利潤部分。今年四個季度，該部門的核心銷售額均實現了成長，我們預計該部門將在25年實現核心銷售額成長。

The International business also has delivered core sales growth every quarter of '24, and we expect that to continue in '25. I think the big thing is with the innovation pipeline ramping up, and I mentioned the initiatives in my prepared remarks, we're expecting Home and Commercial to move into territory as a segment in the back half of the year. And then I think I O&R -- to your point, O&R is our smallest segment. It represents only about 10% of the company's revenue and less the net of the company's profit.

國際業務在24年每季都實現了核心銷售成長，我們預計這種趨勢將在25年繼續保持。我認為最重要的是隨著創新管道的不斷增加，我在準備好的演講中提到了這些舉措，我們預計家用和商用將在今年下半年進入這個領域。然後我認為 O＆R —— 正如你所說，O＆R 是我們最小的部分。它只占公司收入的10%左右，還不到公司利潤的淨額。

On that business, we expect core sales trends to improve sequentially in '25 versus '24, but because the innovation pipeline, as we've said for several quarters now doesn't really hit until the '26 season, we're in active discussions right now with all the major retailers selling in those products for the '26 season. We think that that business is unlikely to turn positive on core sales this year, although we do think it's going to sequentially improve. But we do think that we are lined up to have that business turn positive in '26.

就該業務而言，我們預計核心銷售趨勢在'25 年將比'24 年環比改善，但正如我們已經說過的幾個季度一樣，由於創新管道要到'26 年季節才真正發揮作用，因此我們目前正在與所有主要零售商積極討論在'26 年季節銷售這些產品的問題。我們認為，該業務今年不太可能對核心銷售產生積極影響，儘管我們確實認為它會逐漸改善。但我們確實認為，我們預計在26年實現業務轉正。

Okay, thanks for the color. And then Mark, just looking at interest expense, I guess, trying to understand what's factored in for this year, you said $5 million to $10 million increase, but that's before the next refinancing. So is that partially baked into that guidance, or would that be incremental interest expense?

好的，謝謝你的顏色。然後馬克，我猜只是看一下利息支出，試著了解今年的因素，你說增加了 500 萬到 1000 萬美元，但這是在下一次再融資之前。那麼，這是否部分包含在該指南中，還是屬於增量利息支出？

Well, I would tell you a couple of things. So if you look at our year-over-year interest expense, while we had a very successful refinancing endeavor, some of that debt that we were pulling down, the $2 billion that was sitting out in April of '26, was initially couponed at 4.2%. But because of step ups, it was actually effectively yielding 5.7%. So when we refinanced, obviously, you saw a bit of a step up on that, and that's going to carry over for the full year.

好吧，我想告訴你幾件事。因此，如果您查看我們同比的利息支出，雖然我們的再融資工作非常成功，但我們減少的部分債務，即 26 年 4 月的 20 億美元債務，最初的票面利率為 4.2%。但由於階梯式利率上升，其實際收益率達 5.7%。因此，當我們再融資時，顯然你會看到這一點有所進步，而且這種進步將持續到全年。

Now we are actually very excited because the 2030s and the 2032s that we issued at 6.375 and 6.65, respectively, if you take the midpoint of the bid-ask on both of those, the shorter duration is actually trading 35 bps better, and the longer duration is actually trading 25 bps better. So obviously, I think people are looking through the business results and seeing the turnaround that's underway and feel very good that the credit metrics are improving at Newell.

現在我們實際上非常興奮，因為我們分別以 6.375 和 6.65 發行的 2030 年代和 2032 年代債券，如果取這兩個債券的買賣價中間值，較短期限的實際交易價格要高出 35 個基點，而較長期限的實際交易價格要高出 25 個基點。因此顯然，我認為人們正在關注業務結果並看到正在進行的好轉，並對 Newell 的信用指標改善感到非常高興。

And so obviously, when we reenter the market to dispose of the remaining $1.25 billion of the April '26 notes, we expect to be able to do that at attractive rates. As far as the other piece of your question, yes, I think the -- our guidance incorporates the projected refinancing about midyear. So we've already factored that into the guidance. That's not an incremental headwind that we would expect.

因此顯然，當我們重新進入市場處理剩餘的 12.5 億美元 4 月 26 日債券時，我們期望能夠以有吸引力的利率完成。至於你問題的另一部分，是的，我認為──我們的指引包含了年中預期的再融資。因此，我們已將其考慮進指導之中。這並不是我們所期望的漸進式逆風。

Perfect, thanks so much.

非常好，非常感謝。

Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

Great, thanks. Good morning. I was curious as I know on tariffs, you guys were proactive in offering and kind of framing exposures or lack thereof. And there was nothing inconsistent with what you guys have shared before, but thanks for just laying it all out. I was curious if -- maybe hard to say, but would you think that ultimately over a 12- to 24-month period of tariffs go in, is it a net positive or a net negative for you? Because I think the competitive dynamics situation in the US and where this would favor you is something that's probably pretty underappreciated. So I was just wondering if you could comment on that. Thanks.

太好了，謝謝。早安.我很好奇，因為我知道關於關稅的問題，你們積極主動地提供並建立風險敞口或缺乏風險敞口。並且與你們之前分享的內容沒有任何矛盾，不過還是感謝你們將這一切說出來。我很好奇——也許很難說，但您是否認為，在 12 到 24 個月的關稅期內，對您來說是淨利好還是淨利壞？因為我認為美國的競爭態勢以及這對您有利的方面可能被大大低估了。所以我只是想知道您是否可以對此發表評論。謝謝。

Yes, Lauren, it's a good question, and it's one that we spend a lot of time as a leadership team talk about. There's -- and it's hard to predict. What I will say is there is reason to believe that it could be a net positive for us over the midterm because we have a very significant US manufacturing base that we believe is competitively advantaged in many of the categories that we're competing against.

是的，勞倫，這是一個很好的問題，我們領導團隊花了很多時間討論這個問題。有——而且很難預測。我要說的是，我們有理由相信，這對我們中期而言可能是一個淨利好，因為我們擁有非常重要的美國製造業基礎，我們相信在我們競爭的許多類別中，它都具有競爭優勢。

If you think about half of our business is manufactured, and the biggest part of our US business we manufacture in the US. And we compete against a number of players that are not manufacturing in the US. We've already started to get a little bit of traction in the back half of the year. We haven't really fully baked this in yet around going out and talking to retailers about shifting their promotion slots to Made in the USA product as a way to insulate the retailer assortment from tariff potential.

如果您想一想，我們的業務有一半是製造業，而我們美國業務的最大部分是在美國製造的。我們的競爭對手中有許多不在美國生產製造的公司。今年下半年我們已經開始取得一些進展。我們還沒有真正完全實施這項計劃，我們還沒有走出去與零售商談論將他們的促銷位轉移到美國製造的產品，以此來使零售商的產品組合免受關稅的潛在影響。

We've also talked to retailers about changing their shelf sets to favor Made in the USA product and discontinuing some of their -- particularly on some of the categories where they're bringing private label in from China, we think they should shift and discontinue that product and put our brands in place. I'm selling a little bit on that as we have those discussions. But we're getting some traction, and that traction is increasing. And so that will be a tailwind for us.

我們還與零售商討論了改變貨架以支持美國製造產品並停止銷售部分產品——特別是一些從中國引進自有品牌的產品類別，我們認為他們應該轉變並停止銷售該產品並轉而使用我們的品牌。當我們進行這些討論時，我對此有一點了解。但我們正在取得一些進展，而且這種進展還在增加。這對我們來說將是一個順風。

On the flip side, as we've mentioned, there is some headwind that we can face from China tariffs from Mexico and Canada potentially retaliatory tariffs. And so how that fully nets out is just very difficult to predict, which is why, when we gave our guidance, we said it was preliminary. But I do think we've got a lot of opportunity in this environment because of the US manufacturing base.

另一方面，正如我們所提到的，我們可能面臨來自中國關稅以及墨西哥和加拿大的潛在報復性關稅的一些阻力。因此，很難預測最終結果會如何，這就是為什麼當我們給予指導時，我們說這是初步的。但我確實認為，由於美國擁有製造業基礎，我們在這種環境下擁有很多機會。

And one of the things that we went back and looked at was, if you look at what's happened in the new US manufacturing base since 2017 -- since the 2017 tax cut initiative was put into place, Newell's invested close to $2 billion in US manufacturing. And we think that that is sort of unique relative to our competitive set. And so we're trying to figure out how do we leverage, how do we scale up?

我們回顧的一件事是，如果你看看自 2017 年以來美國新製造業基地發生的情況——自 2017 年減稅計畫實施以來，紐維爾集團已在美國製造業投資近 20 億美元。我們認為，相對於我們的競爭對手來說，這是獨一無二的。因此，我們正在嘗試弄清楚如何發揮影響力、如何擴大規模？

We can hire more workers. And as we scale up the US manufacturing plans, that comes at a very high incremental profit rate as well because it carries fixed overhead. So it's a long way of saying we don't really know because it's hard to predict what the outcome is. But we do have an underappreciated, to your point, positive tailwind from our US manufacturing. And the question will be how does that fair to the headwind potential from tariffs on the sourced business that we may be facing.

我們可以僱用更多工人。隨著我們擴大美國製造計劃，它也會帶來非常高的增量利潤率，因為它帶有固定的間接費用。簡而言之，我們真的不知道，因為很難預測結果是什麼。但正如您所說，我們確實從美國製造業獲得了未被充分重視的積極推動力。問題是，這對我們可能面臨的來源業務關稅的潛在阻力有何影響？

Okay, great. And let me -- just one more thing, and I apologize if I missed this in the prepared remarks for Mark, but Q1 core sales, just why -- we knew -- we had expected it to be down. It's just a bit more than I had anticipated. And I know it's a really small quarter, so I just wanted to know if there was more clarity on the driver of that 1Q core sales.

好的，太好了。還有一件事，如果我在為馬克準備的發言中遺漏了這一點，我深感抱歉，但第一季的核心銷售額，就是為什麼——我們知道——我們預計它會下降。這只是比我預期的要多一點。我知道這是一個非常小的季度，所以我只是想知道是否更清楚地了解第一季核心銷售的驅動因素。

I think, on Q1 -- and you rightly pointed out, Q1 is always our smallest quarter of the year because we have a number of seasonal businesses, and it's the smallest season on every single one of our businesses. And so I don't read too much into Q1 as an indicator of where we're headed for the year. If you look at Q1 this year versus Q1 last year, where our guidance, although it's minus 2% to minus 4% this year, would be an improvement versus -- even at the low end versus how we started last year. And so that's what I would say about Q1.

我認為，就第一季而言——您正確指出，第一季始終是我們一年中最小的季度，因為我們有許多季節性業務，而且它是我們每項業務最小的季節。因此，我不會過多地關注第一季的表現，將其作為全年走勢的指標。如果將今年第一季與去年第一季進行比較，我們會發現儘管我們的預期是-2% 到-4%，但與去年年初相比還是有所改善——甚至處於較低水平。這就是我對第一季的看法。

Yes. The only other thing I would offer on Q1 is the fact that there's very little innovation that typically, across our categories, gets launched in the quarter. We feel really good that our innovation funnel is continuing to build out. And in fact, our 2025 Tier 1 and 2 innovation funnel, in terms of something we call GRAC, which is gross revenue after cannibalization, is actually 3 times the size of our 2024 funnel. So we've been building that front-end capability, and that will be coming online.

是的。關於第一季度，我唯一想說的是，在我們的所有產品類別中，通常第一季推出的創新產品非常少。我們很高興看到我們的創新管道不斷拓展。事實上，我們 2025 年的一級和二級創新漏斗，就我們所說的 GRAC（即蠶食後的總收入）而言，實際上是我們 2024 年漏斗規模的 3 倍。因此，我們一直在建立前端功能，並且它即將上線。

The other thing I'll say about Q1 is obviously the normalized EPS guidance, minus 9% to minus 6%, might have caught you a little bit by surprise. But there's a big currency dislocation taking effect as we sit here now based on the tariff discussions that have been obviously very public.

關於第一季我要說的另一件事顯然是標準化的每股盈餘預期（-9% 至-6%）可能會讓您有點驚訝。但根據顯然已經非常公開的關稅討論結果，我們現在面臨著嚴重的貨幣混亂。

And if you look into our Q1, there's probably about almost nearly a nickel of transaction impact on EPS in the quarter, which we are taking actions now to remediate over the balance of the year and are very confident that we will do so. And if you look at our full-year EPS guidance at the midpoint, we're projecting to be up 18%. So we feel really very good about the plan. We think the company is continuing to put strength to strength. And so this is just a temporal thing.

如果你看一下我們的第一季度，就會發現交易對本季度的每股收益的影響可能只有約五美分，我們現在正在採取行動，在今年餘下的時間裡進行補救，並且我們非常有信心我們會做到這一點。如果您查看我們的全年每股收益中位數指引，我們預計該數字將成長 18%。因此，我們對這個計劃感到非常滿意。我們認為公司將繼續不斷增強實力。所以這只是暫時的事情。

Okay. And maybe one other thought on that, just -- Mark makes a good point. If you go through that list of innovation that I went through in my prepared remarks, the vast majority -- not all, but the vast majority of that innovation is launching sort of in the season, so this summer. And that innovation, we think, based on the feedback we've heard from retailers, is going to be very well received in the market. So it's a -- it's what gives us confidence that we're going to return to core sales growth in the back half of the year.

好的。對此也許還有另一個想法，只是──馬克提出了一個很好的觀點。如果你看一下我在準備好的發言中列出的創新清單，你會發現絕大多數——不是全部，但絕大多數創新都在本季，也就是今年夏天推出。根據我們從零售商那裡聽到的回饋，我們認為這項創新將受到市場的熱烈歡迎。所以，這讓我們有信心在今年下半年恢復核心銷售成長。

And we continue to make difficult choices on low-margin business. Chris said that for the full year, there's about a point in there. I would contend that that's much more heavily weighted towards the front end of the year than the back end of the year. And if you look at the trade off that we've been making there, I think it's a fair trade, right? Because our two-year stack on our normalized gross margin in the fourth quarter was up 790 basis points, and second-half two-year stack was up 700. So that's a trade that I think is more than reasonable for us to be making. I mean, our 2024 net sales were $550 million less than 2023, but our trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA was up $120 million.

我們在低利潤業務上繼續做出艱難的選擇。克里斯說，就全年而言，大約有一個點。我認為，這與年初相比，年底的權重更大。如果你看看我們在那裡所做的權衡，我認為這是一筆公平的交易，對嗎？因為我們第四季的兩年期標準化毛利率上漲了 790 個基點，下半年的兩年期標準化毛利率上漲了 700 個基點。所以我認為這對我們來說是一筆非常合理的交易。我的意思是，我們 2024 年的淨銷售額比 2023 年減少了 5.5 億美元，但我們過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 增加了 1.2 億美元。

Great, thanks so much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國證券的克里斯凱裡 (Chris Carey)。

Hey, good morning, everyone. I just wanted to follow up on that line of thinking, actually. Newell has been divesting and shedding businesses for some time even before the Jarden acquisition. But obviously, it accelerated since then, and that continues today. Obviously, there are gross margin benefits. Is this just going to be something that -- is this going to be a part of the story on an annual basis, and there's going to constantly be some revenue headwind in the gross margin offset?

嘿，大家早安。實際上，我只是想延續這種思路。早在收購 Jarden 之前，Newell 就已在剝離和放棄一些業務。但顯然，從那時起，這一趨勢就開始加速，並且一直持續到今天。顯然，存在毛利率優勢。這是否會成為每年都會出現的情況，並且會不斷在毛利率抵銷中出現一些收入阻力？

How close do we -- how close are we to the portfolio that we'll probably see over the longer term? I realize there's always going to be decisions here and there, but just the durability of it, number one. And then -- or should we be thinking about this as to your point about you're going to see better margin benefits in perhaps earnings. So just any thoughts on the cadence of this and the durability.

我們距離我們可能在長期內看到的投資組合還有多遠？我意識到總是需要做出一些決定，但最重要的是它的持久性。然後 - 或者我們應該考慮您所說的關於您將在收益中看到更好的利潤收益的觀點。所以只是針對這個節奏和耐用性的任何想法。

Yes, I think that dynamic that you're talking about, '25 is likely to be the end of that dynamic, and we will not have that dynamic in the same way as we head into '26. And the reason why I say that is, recall that when we started the strategy 18 months ago, we had 80 brands. We ended the year in '24 with 55 brands. So we've already gotten 25 out. Of those 55 brands, there's maybe five or so that we still are likely to exit that are relatively small but that we expect to do that kind of in the first half of this year. And so we think we're going to be at a portfolio of 50.

是的，我認為您所說的動態，25 年很可能是這種動態的結束，而且在進入 26 年時我們將不會再以同樣的方式擁有這種動態。我這樣說的原因是，回想一下，18個月前我們開始實施這項策略時，我們有 80 個品牌。2024 年結束時，我們已擁有 55 個品牌。所以我們已經得到 25 個了。在這 55 個品牌中，大概有 5 個左右我們仍有可能退出，這些品牌規模相對較小，但我們預計將在今年上半年完成退出。因此我們認為我們的投資組合將達到 50 個。

We think that portfolio of 50 is now the right portfolio going forward. And recall that our strategy is to focus on the top 25, which represent 90% of the sales and profits of the company. But I don't think the tail cleanup is going to be as pronounced going forward. We have had that as a headwind to your point. But I think when we get into 2026, that point of headwind that we talked about that's embedded in our core sales guidance for '25, I don't expect us to be talking about that being a headwind for '26 as we go into '26.

我們認為，50 個投資組合是目前正確的未來投資組合。回想一下，我們的策略是專注於前 25 名企業，它們代表了公司 90% 的銷售額和利潤。但我不認為未來尾部清理工作會如此明顯。我們已經將此視為你的觀點的阻力。但我認為，當我們進入 2026 年時，我們所談論的逆風點已經包含在我們 25 年的核心銷售指引中，我預計我們在進入 26 年時不會談論這會成為 26 年的逆風。

Okay, all right. And the only -- the other question would be from a category growth perspective. How would you assess your visibility across your major categories? There are a number of categories across consumer that are seeing sluggish growth right now. So what's the rank order where pretty good visibility here, but you could be exposed a little bit on the tail? And then how are you thinking about ring fencing some of that exposure, just given the volatility that we've seen in the category growth in recent times. Thanks.

好的，好的。唯一的——另一個問題是從類別成長的角度來看的。您如何評價您在主要類別中的知名度？目前，消費品領域有許多類別的商品都出現了成長緩慢的現象。那麼，這裡的排名順序是怎麼樣的呢？那麼，考慮到我們最近看到的類別成長的波動性，您如何考慮限制部分風險？謝謝。

Yes, category growth is a little bit more of an art than a science to predict. What I would say is, as we started 2024, we said that we were expecting in '24 the categories to be down low single digits, and they did turn out to be down low single digits. So we hit the forecast in '24 that we were expecting. As we head into '25, our forecast is for the category growth rate to be about flat.

是的，預測類別成長更多的是一門藝術，而不是一門科學。我想說的是，當我們開始 2024 年時，我們說過，我們預計 24 年各類別的降幅將達到個位數，結果也確實是個位數。因此，我們在 24 年實現了預期目標。隨著我們進入25年，我們預測該類別的成長率將基本持平。

And when we talk about the category growth rate, we're talking about the global category growth rate, not just the US category growth rate. And so we use a number of different sources to try to make that projection. I think we've gotten better at looking at data sources, whether it be from companies like Circana that issue a forecast largely for the US. Euromonitor, we look at what retailers around the world are saying. We look at macroeconomic forecasts.

當我們談論類別成長率時，我們談論的是全球類別成長率，而不僅僅是美國類別成長率。因此，我們使用許多不同的來源來嘗試進行該預測。我認為我們已經更了解數據來源了，無論是來自 Circana 等主要針對美國發布預測的公司。歐睿國際，我們關注世界各地零售商的評價。我們來看看宏觀經濟預測。

And then we look at history of these categories as well, and we sort of triangulate to try to get to what we think the forecast is likely to be. There are likely going to be some puts and takes in that forecast. There will be some geographies that we expect will grow and some categories that we expect will grow. And there will be others where we'll see a bit of a headwind. But so far, there's nothing in our forward-looking lens that would cause us to come off of that forecast of categories improving in '25 versus '24 and being about flat in total.

然後我們再查看這些類別的歷史記錄，並進行三角測量，試圖得出我們認為可能的預測結果。該預測中可能存在一些不確定性。我們預期某些地區將會成長，某些類別也會成長。在其他地方我們還會遇到一些阻力。但到目前為止，從我們的前瞻性角度來看，還沒有任何因素會讓我們偏離這樣的預測：2025 年各類別將比 2024 年有所改善，整體持平。

Okay, thanks, Chris.

好的，謝謝，克里斯。

Brian McNamara, Canaccord Genuity.

Canaccord Genuity 的 Brian McNamara。

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. First, I was hoping you could comment on, I guess, what I'll call your practical tariff exposure to China. I know a good portion, as you mentioned, is Graco, where you've had kind of waivers in the past. So assuming those waivers continue, where do you kind of see those percentages landing, the 15% current and the 10% by year end?

大家早安。感謝您回答這些問題。首先，我希望您能就您面臨的中國實際關稅風險發表評論。正如您所說，我知道很大一部分是 Graco，過去你們曾對其給予過某種豁免。那麼假設這些豁免繼續下去，您認為這些百分比會落到什麼程度呢，目前的 15%，年底的 10%？

Yes, so let me start with that. As you rightly point out, 15% is where we are today. We expect to be at 10% by year end. By year end -- of that 10% by year end, the majority of that is related to the Baby business. So certainly, more than half of it; maybe 60%, 70% of it is Baby related. That is currently exempt from 301 tariffs.

是的，那麼讓我從那裡開始。正如您正確指出的那樣，15% 就是我們目前的水平。我們預計到年底將達到 10%。到年底，這 10% 中的大部分都與嬰兒業務有關。所以肯定超過一半；其中大概 60% 到 70% 是跟 Baby 有關的。目前該產品已免徵301關稅。

Now I will say, the most recent tariff pronouncement that the government has announced of 10% applies to all China goods, irrespective of exemptions or not. We'll see whether that sticks and how that applies, but that would be the exposure on China. In most cases where we have China exposure, we are not competitively disadvantaged in a significant way because the industry is dependent on China for those categories is the first point.

現在我要說的是，政府最近宣布的 10% 關稅適用於所有中國商品，無論是否享有豁免。我們將觀察其是否有效以及如何應用，但這將是對中國的風險暴露。在大多數情況下，當我們在中國開展業務時，我們並不會在競爭中處於明顯劣勢，因為首先，該行業在這些類別上依賴中國。

The second one is we are not exposed at all for retaliatory tariffs from China. And so we -- there is nothing that we manufacture in the US that we import to China. We do have a China business that's a fine writing business behind Parker and Waterman, but those products are made in Europe and sold into China. So we have sort of a one-way exposure on China that is from China into the US.

第二，我們根本沒有受到中國報復性關稅的影響。因此，我們在美國生產的任何東西都不會進口到中國。我們在中國確實有業務，主要是派克和威迪文等精美書寫工具業務，但這些產品是在歐洲製造並銷往中國。所以，我們對中國的曝險在某種程度上是單向的，也就是從中國到美國。

Got it. And then quickly, a second question, what we get often from investors is, what drives the return to core sales growth? Is it simply lapping easy comps; lack of headwinds from kind of SKU reductions and brand exits; innovation, which we've seen as a template in Learning and Development; or maybe something else? If you can kind of rank order those in buckets, I think that would be very helpful. Thanks.

知道了。然後很快，第二個問題是，我們經常從投資者那裡得到的問題是，是什麼推動了核心銷售成長的回歸？這只是簡單的重疊嗎？缺乏來自 SKU 減少和品牌退出等方面的阻力；創新，我們將其視為學習和發展的模板；或其他的？如果您可以按類別對它們進行排序，我認為這會非常有幫助。謝謝。

Yes, so if you talk about what gets us back to core sales growth, number one, we expect the category, as I mentioned, to improve from down low single digits this year to about flat next year. And so category improvement is sort of one piece. Relative to the things that are in our control, we have significantly improved -- ramped up our new product innovation pipeline. I mentioned a number of them that we're launching.

是的，所以如果您談論是什麼讓我們重回核心銷售成長，首先，正如我所提到的，我們預計該類別將從今年的個位數低位下降提高到明年的持平水平。因此，類別改進只是其中的一部分。相對於我們能控制的事情，我們已經有了顯著的進步——加強了我們的新產品創新管道。我提到了我們將要推出的一些產品。

But if you look at just as a headline, in 2023, we had by our estimates, one Tier 1 initiative that we launched. Recall that as part of our new strategy, we put a tiering system in place that's based on size and importance of the initiative. If you look at heading into '24, we had eight Tier 1 initiatives that we launched in '24. And next year, we're going to be in the mid-teens. And so we're seeing that ramp up next year in '25.

但如果你只看標題的話，根據我們的估計，我們在 2023 年推出了一級計劃。回想一下，作為我們新策略的一部分，我們根據計劃的規模和重要性建立了分層系統。如果你展望24年，你會發現我們在24年推出了8項一級計畫。明年，這個數字將達到十五六歲了。因此，我們預計明年，也就是25年，這一數字將會上升。

We're seeing that ramp up in new product innovation. Mark mentioned it as well that the gross revenue after cannibalization is significantly higher today from the new product innovation than what we had going into '24 or '23. That's the second component. There's a third component, which is distribution expansion. So our net distribution as best we can measure it in '24 was negative in terms of retail distribution in physical retail stores.

我們看到新產品創新不斷加速。馬克也提到，今天新產品創新帶來的總收入比我們在2024年或2023年的收入高得多。這是第二個組成部分。還有第三個組成部分，即分銷擴展。因此，就實體零售店的零售分銷而言，我們在 24 年所能衡量的淨分銷是負數。

As best we can measure the plan that we've got and the retail commitments for '25, our net distribution in '25 is going to turn positive. And so we will go from distribution being a headwind to being a tailwind as we move into '25 is the third piece, and our sales teams are very focused on that. Because we have a significant opportunity, because many of our brands, which are market-leading brands, have a share of shelf that is below their market share.

只要我們盡力衡量我們現有的計劃和25年的零售承諾，我們25年的淨分銷將轉為正值。因此，隨著我們進入'25年，我們將從分銷的逆風轉變為順風，這是第三部分，我們的銷售團隊非常關注這一點。因為我們擁有巨大的機會，因為我們的許多品牌都是市場領先品牌，但其貨架份額低於其市場份額。

And so we think there's an opportunity for retailers to drive category growth by giving us more shelf space. And we think our brands are deserving of more shelf space. And as the innovation ramps up, it gives us the leverage to go and ask for more shelf space. And then I think the next piece is we're getting sharper on mix and pricing.

因此我們認為零售商有機會透過為我們提供更多的貨架空間來推動品類成長。我們認為我們的品牌值得擁有更多的貨架空間。隨著創新的不斷推進，我們就有能力要求更多的貨架空間。然後我認為下一步是我們要更敏銳地了解組合和定價。

And so we talked about in our strategy the move from opening price point to medium and high price point. All of the innovations that we're launching are medium and high price point products, and so we believe that we're going to start to drive price per unit up in these categories through our new product innovation and through our mix management process. Those are the biggest elements that get us from what has been a core sales decline to core sales positive.

因此，我們在策略中討論了從開盤價位向中高價位的轉變。我們推出的所有創新產品都是中高價位產品，因此我們相信，透過我們的新產品創新和組合管理流程，我們將開始提高這些類別的單價。這些是讓我們的核心銷售從下滑轉為正成長的最大因素。

If I could add just a couple of other pieces in perspective. I think the other part of it was we just weren't spending enough money in A&P, to be frank. If you go back to 2022, our A&P level was 4%. We're finishing this year at 5.5%. We think we'll finish '25 closer to '26. Now that varies by brand. Some brands have nearly 10% of their sales being spent. Some have very low percentages like the Rubbermaid Commercial business, where it's not necessarily appropriate.

如果我可以從視角添加一些其他的部分的話。坦白說，我認為另一部分原因是我們在 A&P 上投入的資金不夠。如果回顧 2022 年，我們的 A&P 水準為 4%。今年我們的成長率將達到 5.5%。我們認為我們將在25年和26年之間結束這一年。這因品牌而異。有些品牌的銷售額有近 10% 被花掉。有些公司的比例很低，例如 Rubbermaid Commercial 公司，這不一定合適。

But we haven't been investing enough in our brands and our leading brands. And we didn't do enough work upfront with the consumer qualification work. We didn't have a lot of qualified propositions we are bringing forward that had 360 marketing, strong claims, full influencer and social media program. That's all the things that Chris talked about when he came on and did the capability assessment. We had a lot of outages in our front-end capabilities, and branding and marketing was one of those things. I mean, it's only been six or seven months since we actually put full brand management in place over here at Newell Brands.

但我們對我們的品牌和領先品牌的投資還不夠。而且我們在消費者資格認證工作方面前期工作做得還不夠。我們提出的合格提案並沒有很多，包括 360 度行銷、強有力的主張、完整的影響力和社群媒體計畫。這就是克里斯上任並進行能力評估時談到的全部內容。我們的前端功能出現了許多故障，品牌和行銷就是其中之一。我的意思是，我們在 Newell Brands 實際實施全面品牌管理才六、七個月的時間。

Really helpful color. Thanks, guys.

確實很有幫助的顏色。謝謝大家。

Andrea Teixeira, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的安德里亞特謝拉 (Andrea Teixeira)。

Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for the question. So Chris, Mark, how much pricing contributed to core sales in Q4? You mentioned in the release that price in international markets to offset FX was a meaningful contributor, which is natural, of course. But to the total core sales, which, as we all know, declined 3%; so therefore, it implies that volumes were negative in the mid-single digits, I'm assuming. Not to say that, obviously, this is what has been the case.

你好。大家早安。感謝您的提問。那麼克里斯、馬克，定價對第四季核心銷售的貢獻有多大？您在新聞稿中提到，國際市場價格對抵銷外匯影響起到了重要作用，這當然是自然的。但就總核心銷售額而言，眾所周知，下降了 3%；因此，我假設這意味著交易量為負數左右。並不是說這樣，顯然，事實就是這樣的。

But as we progress, and obviously, we saw what you guided for the first quarter, how should, number one, we be thinking about pricing; and then two, of course, like the offset to that in volumes? And then a secondary question is on Mexico, which is an important pillar to your international expansion, as you pointed out, is the five pillars of your growth going forward. Can you expand a little bit on how the recent developments of course potentially like having a recession in Mexico can influence your outlook? Thank you.

但隨著我們的進展，顯然，我們看到了你對第一季度的指導，第一，我們應該如何考慮定價；然後當然是兩個，就像磁碟區中的偏移量？然後第二個問題是關於墨西哥的，這是你們國際擴張的重要支柱，正如你所指出的，也是你們未來成長的五大支柱之一。您能否稍微闡述一下最近的事態發展（例如墨西哥的經濟衰退）可能會如何影響您的觀點？謝謝。

Yes, so just a couple of thoughts. I would say pricing was about a point in Q4. So it was it was not huge. And most of that pricing that was about a point in Q4 was in markets where we saw a significant devaluation of currency. As we mentioned in Mark's prepared remarks, as we head into Q1, we are seeing significantly higher FX pressure. And so we are planning more pricing largely in international markets. That pricing is going into effect sort of toward the February-March timeline. So it will have a bigger impact on Q2 than it will on Q1, but that's sort of the pricing dynamic.

是的，我只是有幾個想法。我想說定價大約在第四季的一個點。所以它並不是很大。第四季的大部分定價都發生在貨幣大幅貶值的市場。正如我們在馬克的準備好的發言中提到的那樣，隨著我們進入第一季度，我們看到外匯壓力明顯增加。因此，我們計劃主要在國際市場上進行更多的定價。該定價將於二月至三月左右生效。因此，它對第二季度的影響將比對第一季的影響更大，但這是一種定價動態。

With regard to Mexico, Mexico is one of our top international markets, and we are growing in Mexico. We have two manufacturing plants in Mexico that are supporting Mexico a blender plant in Acuña and a writing plant that's in Mexicali, which are basically the 5% of cost of goods sold that I mentioned that are coming from Mexico into the US in my prepared remarks. With regard to the Mexican business from a business sold in Mexico, I would say Mexico roughly is about 4% or 5% of the total company's revenue.

就墨西哥而言，墨西哥是我們最大的國際市場之一，我們在墨西哥正在實現成長。我們在墨西哥有兩家製造廠為墨西哥提供支持，一家是位於阿庫尼亞的攪拌機廠，另一家是位於墨西卡利的書寫廠，這些工廠基本上占我在準備好的發言中提到的從墨西哥運到美國的商品銷售成本的 5%。對於在墨西哥出售的業務，我認為墨西哥大約占公司總收入的 4％ 或 5％。

And we think we got still a significant opportunity because our market share positions in Mexico, while strong, are still not as strong as they are in the US market. And so we've got a plan, we think, in Mexico despite the macroeconomic environment where we think we can grow in Mexico and gain significant market share.

我們認為我們仍然擁有重大機遇，因為我們在墨西哥的市佔率雖然很強，但仍然不如在美國市場那麼強。因此，我們認為，儘管宏觀經濟環境如何，但我們在墨西哥有一個計劃，我們認為我們可以在墨西哥發展並獲得顯著的市場份額。

Yes, a couple of other things I'll just add just for your benefit is if you think about the net pricing that we expect in '25, and almost all of it is driven by currency movements, we think that's probably going to fall out to be one-third in the first half and two-thirds in the second half, but the FX impact is roughly 60-40 the other way. So again, we think the first quarter is a bit of a temporal thing. Obviously, the currency pair is broke meaningfully very recently and very suddenly.

是的，為了您的利益，我還要補充幾點，如果您考慮我們預計在 25 年的淨定價，而且幾乎全部由貨幣變動驅動，我們認為這可能會下降到上半年的三分之一和下半年的三分之二，但外匯影響在另一個方面大約是 60-40。因此，我們再次認為第一季是暫時現象。顯然，該貨幣對最近被非常突然地嚴重打破。

Because of our work with our trade customers, we don't go in necessarily the next day and put through a pricing action. It takes time. So we're admittedly getting straight a little bit, but we weren't caught unaware. We were very proactive, and we have plans in place, and those are being implemented. So we're not overly concerned about it. And as I said in the prepared remarks, we have a good plan that we're confident will, at the end of the day, drive over 100 basis points of op margin improvement through the full year, which is 2x our evergreen target.

由於我們要與貿易客戶合作，所以我們不一定要在第二天就採取定價行動。這需要時間。因此，我們承認自己有些走神了，但並沒有措手不及。我們非常積極主動，我們已經制定了計劃，並且正在實施。因此我們對此並不太擔心。正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們有一個很好的計劃，我們相信，最終這個計劃將推動全年營業利潤率提高 100 個基點以上，這是我們長期目標的兩倍。

Thank you. I'll pass it on.

謝謝。我會傳達的。

Peter Grom, UBS.

瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. So Chris, Mark, I know you both outlined various uncertainties. This is a preliminary guidance, and I totally appreciate that it's hard to predict these things. But if we were to put that aside for a second, I mean, how would you characterize the degree of flexibility in this guide? And I just asked that in the context of what we've seen over the past year, particularly on the operating margin front, where the degree of expansion you delivered this year came in about twice as strong as you expected at the start.

謝謝，接線生。大家早安。所以克里斯，馬克，我知道你們都概述了各種不確定性。這是一個初步的指導，我完全理解預測這些事情很困難。但如果我們暫時把這個問題放在一邊，我的意思是，您如何描述本指南的彈性程度？我只是根據過去一年的情況問的，特別是在營業利潤率方面，今年你們的擴張程度大約是年初預期的兩倍。

Yes, I think -- look, we're trying to be prudent in the guidance. One of the things that as Mark and I initiated the turnaround plan 18 months ago, we want to develop a focus on delivering what we say. It doesn't mean that we're trying to be sand baggers. We're not trying to do that. But at the same time, we're trying to tell you to provide what we think is reasonably -- we're reasonably confident we can deliver. And in some cases, we're going to try to run very fast to over deliver.

是的，我認為——看，我們正試圖謹慎地進行指導。18 個月前，馬克和我啟動了扭虧為盈計劃，其中一件事就是我們希望集中精力兌現我們所說的承諾。這並不意味著我們要充當沙袋工人。我們並沒有試著這麼做。但同時，我們試圖告訴您提供我們認為合理的服務——我們有信心我們能夠提供。在某些情況下，我們會嘗試快速運行以超額完成任務。

And so the work doesn't stop when the budget is done or when the guidance is given. We've got internal targets that are higher than what's in our guidance. And you would expect us to have internal targets that are higher than what's in our guidance. And so -- but we also are not immune from macro impacts.

因此，預算完成或指導意見給出後，工作並不會停止。我們的內部目標高於我們的指導目標。您可能希望我們的內部目標高於我們的指導目標。所以——但我們也無法免受宏觀影響。

I will say, if you look at the flexibility that's in the P&L, I feel better today than I did a year or two ago. Mark mentioned we're going into the year with a much higher A&P budget, which we intend to spend behind our top innovations. But if we wind up through the year, seeing something happen that causes some of those innovations to be disrupted by macro forces, we do have discretionary spend that's built into the budget that can allow us to still deliver.

我想說的是，如果你看一下損益表中的彈性，我現在的感覺比一兩年前要好得多。馬克提到，我們今年的廣告宣傳預算將大幅增加，我們打算將這些預算用於支持我們的頂級創新。但是，如果我們在這一年結束時，看到一些事情發生，導致一些創新受到宏觀力量的干擾，我們確實有內置在預算中的可自由支配的支出，可以讓我們繼續交付。

Likewise, we have upside plans that we're working on to say if things are going better than we expect, we're going to double down and invest more. So that's sort of how we approach it. I know it's not a hard and fast answer, but we want to continue to deliver what we say and have our teams focused on over delivering what we're promising externally.

同樣，我們正在製定上行計劃，如果事情進展比我們預期的要好，我們就會加倍投入並進行更多投資。這就是我們的處理方式。我知道這不是一個硬性答案，但我們希望繼續兌現我們所說的，並讓我們的團隊專注於兌現我們對外做出的承諾。

Okay. That's really helpful, Chris. And then Mark, just maybe quickly, how do you see operating margin expansion phasing through the year? I mean, smaller 1Q, as you alluded to. But do you anticipate 2Q seeing expansion, or is this more of a back-half-weighted improvement? And I guess what I'm trying to get at here is if it's more of the latter that would imply some very nice margin expansion exiting the year. And so I know we're still a ways away from 2026. Not asking for guidance here, but does that give you confidence that getting back to the long-term target of low double-digit operating margins could come sooner rather than later?

好的。這真的很有幫助，克里斯。然後馬克，請簡單問一下，您認為今年營業利潤率的擴張將如何分階段進行？我的意思是，正如您所提到的，1Q 較小。但是，您是否預計第二季會出現擴張，或者這更多的是後半段加權的改善？我想在這裡想要表達的是，如果更多的是後者，那麼這將意味著今年年底的利潤率將大幅擴大。所以我知道我們距離 2026 年還有很長的路要走。這裡不是尋求指引，但是這是否讓您有信心盡快恢復到低兩位數營業利潤率的長期目標？

Yes, I guess this is what I'd say. Look, we're not going to provide quarter-by-quarter guidance on op margin. What I would say is that we feel really good about the margin work that has been done, right? The second half of this past year of '24 versus '23 and '22 shows market improvement. We've made up for years of gross margin decay in decline in very, very short order. And that's because, frankly, all the work has been done on gross margin is structural versus cyclical.

是的，我想這就是我要說的。你看，我們不會提供逐季度的營業利潤率指引。我想說的是，我們對已經完成的保證金工作感到非常滿意，對嗎？與2023年和2022年相比，2024年下半年市場有所改善。我們用很短的時間就彌補了多年來毛利率的下滑。這是因為，坦白說，在毛利率方面所做的所有工作都是結構性的，而不是週期性的。

And what I mean by that is our top line is still compressing. We've been driving inventory down and taking the capacity utilization hits that come along with that in the short term. But the underlying fuel productivity program and the automation work that we've done, the gross margin accretive innovation is still largely coming, positive mix management, pricing, and promotion management, all those things are systemic and endemic to what we're now doing routinely across the business.

我的意思是我們的營收仍然在壓縮。我們一直在降低庫存並承擔短期內隨之而來的產能利用率衝擊。但是，我們所做的基礎燃料生產力計劃和自動化工作、毛利率增值創新仍在很大程度上到來，積極的組合管理、定價和促銷管理，所有這些都是系統性的，並且是我們現在在整個業務中例行做的事情所特有的。

And there's absolutely no reason why -- when Chris and I sat out at Deutsche Bank roughly two years ago and laid out our midterm goals and saying, look, we want to get gross margin at 37% to 38% -- and if we can do that and have A&P somewhere in the 6% to 7% range and get our overheads back down where they need to go, let's say, in the 17% range that we could have an op margin of 13% to 15% versus this year, we ended up at 8%.

這完全沒有理由——大約兩年前，當克里斯和我在德意志銀行工作時，我們制定了中期目標，並說，看，我們希望毛利率達到 37% 到 38%——如果我們能做到這一點，並將廣告和宣傳費用控制在 6% 到 7% 的範圍內，並將我們的管理費用降到需要的水平，比如說，在 17%利潤率最終達到了 8%。

I think we feel really good about what we've been able to deliver year over year over year. I mean, we just had $900 million of trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA on this business. And as we talked earlier, sales were down, but profit was up significantly. That was a trade we knew we had to make based on the portfolio that we had. We made it. We said that we're going to walk towards the barking dogs and make swift decisions. And under Chris' leadership, that's exactly what we've done. And so I think we feel really good that we're piecing the turnaround together, one piece at a time. And my confidence has never been better.

我認為，我們對年復一年所取得的成績感到非常滿意。我的意思是，我們這項業務過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 剛剛達到 9 億美元。正如我們之前所說，銷售額下降，但利潤大幅上升。我們知道，根據我們現有的投資組合，我們必須進行這筆交易。我們成功了。我們說，我們要走向吠叫的狗並迅速做出決定。在克里斯的領導下，我們確實做到了這一點。所以，我認為，我們很高興看到我們正在一點一點地扭轉局面。我的信心從未如此強大。

Thanks so much. I'll pass it on.

非常感謝。我會傳達的。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. A replay of today's call will be available later today on the company's website at ir.newellbrands.com. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。今天電話會議的重播將於今天晚些時候在公司網站 ir.newellbrands.com 上提供。現在您可以斷開連接並享受美好的一天。