諾威品牌 (NWL) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Newell Brands first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference call is being recorded. A live webcast of this call is available at irnewellbrands.com.

早安，歡迎參加 Newell Brands 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的電話會議正在錄音。本次電話會議的網路直播可在 irnewellbrands.com 上觀看。

I will now turn the call over to Joanne Freiberger, SVP of Investor Relations and Chief Communications Officer. Ms. Freiberger, you may begin.

現在我將電話轉交給投資者關係資深副總裁兼首席傳播長 Joanne Freiberger。弗萊伯格女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Newell Brand's first quarter 2025 earnings call. On the call with me today are Chris Peterson, our President and CEO; and Mark Erceg, our CFO. Before we begin, I'd like to inform you that during today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements which involve risks and uncertainties.

謝謝。大家早安，歡迎參加 Newell Brand 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起通話的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Peterson 和我們的財務長馬克‧埃爾塞格 (Mark Erceg)。在我們開始之前，我想通知您，在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。

Actual results and outcomes may differ materially, and we undertake no obligation to update forward-looking statements. I refer you to the cautionary language and risk factors available in our in our earnings release our Form 10-K, Form 10-Q, and other SEC filings available on our investor relations website for a further discussion of the factors affecting forward-looking statements.

實際結果和成果可能有重大差異，我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的義務。我建議您參閱我們的收益報告表格 10-K、表格 10-Q 和投資者關係網站上提供的其他 SEC 文件中的警示性語言和風險因素，以進一步討論影響前瞻性陳述的因素。

Please also recognize that today's remark will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including those referred to as normalized measures. We believe these non-GAAP measures are useful to investors, although they should not be considered superior to the measures presented in accordance with GAAP, explanations of these non-GAAP measures are available, and reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures can be found in today's earnings release and tables that were furnished to the SEC.

另請注意，今天的評論將涉及某些非公認會計準則財務指標，包括那些被稱為標準化指標的指標。我們相信這些非公認會計準則衡量指標對投資者是有用的，儘管它們不應被認為優於按照公認會計準則提出的衡量指標，但這些非公認會計準則衡量指標的解釋是可用的，而且可以在今天的收益報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的表格中找到公認會計準則和非公認會計準則衡量指標之間的對帳。

Thank you. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Chris.

謝謝。說完這些，我會把電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Joanne. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our first quarter earnings call. We had a strong start to the year with Q1 results in line or ahead of expectations across all key financial metrics. Core sales of minus 2.1% improved both sequentially and versus a year ago. Both Learning & Development and the International business in total delivered core sales growth in the quarter.

謝謝你，喬安妮。大家早安，歡迎參加我們的第一季財報電話會議。我們今年開局強勁，第一季的業績所有關鍵財務指標均符合或超出預期。核心銷售額下降 2.1%，與上一季及去年同期相比均有所改善。本季度，學習與發展業務和國際業務總體上均實現了核心銷售額成長。

Normalized gross margin increased meaningfully for the seventh consecutive quarter, expanding by 150 basis points.

標準化毛利率連續第七個季度大幅成長，擴大了150個基點。

Normalized operating margin exceeded our outlook even after increasing A&P investment dollars by high single digits compared to prior year, and normalized earnings per share came in $0.05 better than the upper end of our guidance range, driven by strong operational performance.

即使廣告和宣傳投資金額與上年相比增加了高個位數，標準化營業利潤率仍超出了我們的預期，並且由於強勁的營運業績，標準化每股收益比我們指導範圍的上限高出 0.05 美元。

We remain confident that Newell's new strategy is working. A key piece of our new strategy relates to product innovation as we shared last quarter, our multiyear innovation funnel has now largely been rebuilt with exciting consumer-led proprietary products, which will begin launching in a sustained manner, starting with the second half of this year.

我們仍然相信紐厄爾的新戰略正在發揮作用。正如我們上個季度所分享的，我們新策略的一個關鍵部分與產品創新有關，我們多年的創新管道現已基本重建，其中包括令人興奮的消費者主導的專有產品，這些產品將從今年下半年開始以持續的方式推出。

Despite the dynamic operating environment, we remain laser-focused on driving continued progress on our where to play and how to win strategy choices and the capabilities required to deliver against them. That said, we know that tariffs are top of mind, so we'd like to start this morning by explaining why we're confident Newell Brands after what will likely be a period of temporary disruption is well positioned to disproportionately benefit from the global trade realignment currently underway.

儘管營運環境瞬息萬變，我們依然專注於推動我們在「在哪裡行動」和「如何取勝」策略選擇以及實現這些目標所需能力方面的持續進步。話雖如此，我們知道關稅是人們最關心的問題，因此，今天早上我們首先想解釋一下，為什麼我們有信心，在經歷一段可能出現的暫時混亂之後，Newell Brands 將能夠從目前正在進行的全球貿易調整中獲得不成比例的利益。

Specifically, we believe past decisions to proactively prepare for higher China tariffs by aggressively shifting source finished goods procurement to alternate geographies and to maintain and invest in a robust and extensive in-house domestic manufacturing base. While many of our top competitors outsourced or offshore much of their production capability, gives us a unique opportunity to not just manage through this period of tariff-related sourcing dislocations, but to be on a net basis, significant beneficiaries of them.

具體而言，我們認為過去的決定是積極準備應對中國提高關稅，積極將成品採購來源轉移到其他地區，並維持和投資強大而廣泛的國內內部製造基地。雖然我們的許多主要競爭對手都將大部分生產能力外包或轉移到海外，但這為我們提供了一個獨特的機會，不僅可以度過這段與關稅相關的採購混亂時期，而且從淨值來看，我們還是從中受益匪淺。

Let's take each of those two decisions in turn. First, we have made remarkable progress derisking our China supply base over the past several years. Recall that just a few years ago, 35% of Newell's total cost of goods sold was sourced finished goods imported from the US -- into the US from China.

讓我們依序討論這兩個決定。首先，過去幾年我們在降低中國供應基地風險方面取得了顯著進展。回想一下，就在幾年前，Newell 銷售商品總成本的 35% 都來自從美國進口的成品——從中國進口到美國。

Last year, 2024, that number was down to 15%. To help put this in perspective, consider the following. In 2024, total source finished goods imported to the US from all countries represented 24% of Newell's total global cost of goods sold.

去年，也就是 2024 年，這一數字下降到了 15%。為了幫助正確看待這一點，請考慮以下內容。2024 年，美國從所有國家進口的成品源總額佔 Newell 全球銷售總成本的 24%。

After netting out the 15% imported from China, Mexico, which is 98% USMCA compliant was the second largest country of origin, accounting for roughly half of the remaining 9% of US imports. The remaining balance is sourced from various countries, none of which individually exceed 1% of our total global cost of goods sold.

扣除從中國進口的 15% 後，符合 USMCA 98% 的墨西哥是第二大原產國，占美國剩餘 9% 進口量的約一半。剩餘部分來自不同國家，但每個國家的總銷售成本均不超過我們全球銷售總成本的 1%。

This effectively means that China is what we needed to be focused on. That is why even prior to the announcement of an additional 125% tariff on Chinese imported goods, we had plans to reduce US source finished goods from China down to 10% by the end of 2025 and even lower than that by the end of 2026.

這實際上意味著我們需要關注中國。這就是為什麼甚至在宣布對中國進口商品加徵 125% 的關稅之前，我們就計劃到 2025 年底將從中國進口的美國製成品的份額減少到 10%，到 2026 年底甚至更低。

Second, in 2024, over 60% of Newell Brands total sales were in the United States, and since the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, we have invested nearly $2 billion in US manufacturing, much of which was spent on high-return automation projects and dramatic improvements in our distribution and transportation systems.

第二，到2024年，Newell Brands總銷售額的60%以上來自美國，自2017年《減稅與就業法案》以來，我們已向美國製造業投資近20億美元，其中大部分用於高回報的自動化項目以及我們分銷和運輸系統的大幅改進。

As a result, more than half of our 2024 US sales were manufactured through an extensive North America supply base and are not subject to tariffs. This means we are now uniquely positioned to support multiple product categories and to successfully partner with and lead our US customers through this tumultuous period of impending supply disruption.

因此，我們 2024 年在美國銷售的產品中有一半以上是透過廣泛的北美供應基地生產的，並且不受關稅影響。這意味著我們現在擁有獨特的優勢，可以支援多種產品類別，並成功地與美國客戶合作，帶領他們度過即將發生的供應中斷的動盪時期。

In fact, we believe that the number of categories where we are strategically advantaged with North American tariff-free production significantly exceeds the number of categories where we are disadvantaged. Key categories that we manufacture tariff-free across 15 US plants and 2 USMCA compliant plants in Mexico which collectively employ roughly 7,300 individuals include 8 of our top 10 brands, namely Rubbermaid, Rubbermaid Commercial, Sharpie, EXPO, Yankee Candle, Paper Mate, Coleman and Oster.

事實上，我們認為，我們在北美免關稅生產方面具有戰略優勢的類別數量遠遠超過我們處於劣勢的類別數量。我們在 15 家美國工廠和 2 家符合 USMCA 標準的墨西哥工廠生產免關稅的關鍵產品類別，這些工廠總共僱用了大約 7,300 名員工，其中包括我們十大品牌中的 8 個，即 Rubbermaid、Rubbermaid Commercial、Sharpie、EXPO、Yankee Candle、Paper Mate、Coleman 和 Oster。

We also manufacture NUK Baby Care products and Ball Mason jars domestically. Many of these products compete against China-sourced brands, which we believe provides us with a significant competitive advantage in the current environment. With a significant number of customers canceling outstanding purchase orders and actively stopping shipments from China, we have significant untapped capacity across our US and Mexico facilities due to the automation and operational excellence programs we have implemented over the past several years.

我們也在國內生產 NUK 嬰兒護理產品和 Ball Mason 罐。許多產品都與中國品牌競爭，我們相信這在當前環境下為我們提供了顯著的競爭優勢。由於大量客戶取消了未完成的採購訂單並主動停止從中國發貨，由於我們過去幾年實施的自動化和卓越營運計劃，我們在美國和墨西哥的工廠擁有大量未開發的產能。

This gives us the ability to quickly ramp up production of high-quality products, not subject to tariffs to allow our top strategic customers to keep their store shelves full. When we shared our 2025 plan back in February, we expected a fluid and dynamic macroeconomic environment, which is certainly playing out. Mark Erceg will provide additional context on our outlook for the year and walk you through the numbers shortly, but let me spend a few minutes explaining our philosophical and strategic approach to guidance and tariff management.

這使我們能夠快速提高高品質產品的產量，而且不受關稅影響，從而使我們最重要的策略客戶能夠保持商店貨架滿滿。當我們在二月分享我們的 2025 年計劃時，我們預計宏觀經濟環境將會不斷變化和充滿活力，而這種情況也確實正在發生。馬克·埃爾塞格 (Mark Erceg) 將提供有關我們今年展望的更多背景信息，並簡要介紹一下相關數字，但請允許我花幾分鐘時間解釋一下我們對指導和關稅管理的哲學和戰略方針。

In terms of top line growth, we are maintaining our net sales guidance for the year. Within this, we are moderating our expectations for category growth from what was previously flat to now down 1% to 2%. We believe this is prudent given lower consumer confidence levels and more muted macroeconomic forecasts. Importantly, we are not changing our forecast for market share for the year as our new product innovation pipeline remains on track.

在營業收入成長方面，我們維持今年的淨銷售額預期。在此背景下，我們將類別成長預期從先前的持平調整為現在的下降 1% 至 2%。我們認為，鑑於消費者信心水準較低且宏觀經濟預測較為溫和，此舉是謹慎之舉。重要的是，由於我們的新產品創新管道仍在正常運轉，我們不會改變今年的市佔率預測。

Offsetting this impact, our foreign exchange outlook based on current rates has improved by 1-percentage-points to 2-percentage-points. Additionally, we continue to expect stronger top line performance in the back half of the year compared to the front half based on the timing of our innovation launches and distribution gains.

為抵銷此影響，我們基於當前匯率的外匯前景改善了 1 個百分點至 2 個百分點。此外，根據我們創新產品的推出時機和分銷管道的擴大，我們預計下半年的營收表現將強於上半年。

Relative to operating margin and earnings per share, we are maintaining our stated guidance for the year as we expect lower commodity and input cost inflation, favorable foreign exchange, stronger productivity results and select pricing actions to offset higher tariff costs.

相對於營業利潤率和每股收益，我們維持今年的既定指導方針，因為我們預計商品和投入成本通膨將下降、外匯匯率將有利、生產力將提高，並且可選擇的定價行動將抵消更高的關稅成本。

Within this guidance, we have created two separate tariff buckets. In the first tariff bucket, we have placed five items: first, Mexico and Canadian tariffs which from a Newell perspective, have been effectively resolved because our two Mexican manufacturing facilities are 98% USMCA compliant; second, the initial IEEPA, 20% China tariffs; third, the Section 232 global steel and aluminum tariffs; fourth, the reciprocal tariffs that were announced April 2 and then suspended on April 9, leaving a residual baseline tariff of 10% on all countries, except China.

在本指南中，我們創建了兩個單獨的關稅等級。在第一個關稅桶中，我們放置了五項關稅：首先，墨西哥和加拿大的關稅，從 Newell 的角度來看，由於我們的兩個墨西哥製造工廠 98% 符合 USMCA，因此這些關稅已得到有效解決；其次，最初的 IEEPA，20% 的中國關稅；第三，第 232 條關稅在全球鋼鐵和鋁10%。

Finally, the retaliatory tariffs announced by both Canada and China against the US. We expect to fully offset the expected bottom line normalized earnings per share impact from the five elements which make up our first tariff bucket with a number of proactive actions.

最後，加拿大和中國都宣布對美國採取報復性關稅。我們期望透過一系列積極行動，完全抵銷構成我們第一個關稅類別的五個要素對預期底線每股盈餘的影響。

First, we updated our commodity and input cost estimates for the full year and found additional savings versus our going-in budget estimates in several important areas. For example, the price of crude oil has dropped about 15% since the start of the year and natural gas is down close to 10%, which in addition to providing direct cost savings is favorably impacting resin prices and transportation costs.

首先，我們更新了全年的商品和投入成本估算，並發現在幾個重要領域與我們的預算估算相比有額外的節省。例如，自今年年初以來，原油價格已下跌約 15%，天然氣價格下跌近 10%，這除了直接節省成本外，還對樹脂價格和運輸成本產生了有利影響。

Second, in tariff-affected, our procurement team has gone back to suppliers and extracted broadly speaking, a couple of points of cost reduction; third, we put discretionary overhead in A&P spending under a microscope and made some tough but prudent decisions.

第二，在受到關稅影響的情況下，我們的採購團隊已經聯繫了供應商，並從廣義上講，提取了幾個成本削減點；第三，我們仔細審查了廣告和宣傳支出中的可自由支配的間接費用，並做出了一些艱難但謹慎的決定。

Having said that, we still plan to spend more on A&P this year than at any point over the past several years as we invest in the business. Fourth, we updated foreign exchange rates, which have largely moved in our favor since our last earnings call, and we increased prices in select geographies where exchange rate movements versus the US dollar were justified and appropriate.

話雖如此，我們仍然計劃今年在 A&P 業務上的投資比過去幾年的任何時候都要多。第四，我們更新了外匯匯率，自上次收益電話會議以來，匯率基本上對我們有利，並且我們提高了部分地區的價格，因為這些地區的匯率變動對美元來說是合理且適當的。

Finally, we initiated two separate rounds of targeted tariff-related price actions in the US, one of which has already gone into effect and one of which will be effective May 1. The good news is that after these five actions, we have a plan to fully offset the negative bottom line 2025 normalized earnings per share impact related to what we're calling our first bucket of tariffs.

最後，我們在美國啟動了兩輪有針對性的關稅價格行動，其中一輪已經生效，另一輪將於5月1日生效。好消息是，經過這五項行動，我們制定了一項計劃，可以完全抵消與我們所謂的第一批關稅相關的 2025 年每股收益的負面底線影響。

The second tariff bucket is uniquely centered and isolated against the incremental 125% China tariff. Given the magnitude of this element and since it seems to be particularly fluid, we have chosen to handle it separately and outside of guidance for now as a sensitivity. As previously mentioned, we already have plans to dramatically reduce our dependency of sourced finished goods originating from China this year.

第二輪關稅類別以中國增加的125%關稅為中心，並與之形成鮮明對比。鑑於這一因素的重要性，並且由於它似乎特別不穩定，我們選擇將其單獨處理，並暫時將其排除在指導範圍之外，以應對敏感問題。如前所述，我們今年已計劃大幅減少對中國產成品的依賴。

However, considering the incremental 125% tariffs being placed on China, we have done what many leading retailers have done and paused virtually all outstanding Chinese purchase orders. In addition, as we shared on our February call, we put a moratorium in place stating we will not be signing up any new suppliers who do not already have manufacturing capabilities outside of China or have defined plans to do so.

然而，考慮到對中國徵收 125% 的增量關稅，我們採取了許多領先零售商的做法，暫停了幾乎所有未完成的中國採購訂單。此外，正如我們在二月的電話會議上所分享的那樣，我們實施了一項暫停令，聲明我們不會簽署任何尚未在中國境外擁有製造能力或沒有明確計劃的新供應商。

We've taken these actions because we believe is a practical matter, excluding the baby gear category that the amount of incremental pricing required to hold gross margins and the associated new retail shelf price at this tariff level would be so significant that it would preclude many consumers from purchasing those items.

我們採取這些行動是因為我們認為這是一個實際問題，排除嬰兒用品類別需要保持毛利率的增量定價數額以及在此關稅水平下相關的新零售貨架價格將非常大，以至於會阻止許多消費者購買這些商品。

Therefore, instead of continuing to source finished product or raw materials out of China, we will leverage existing inventory on hand while rapidly developing and qualifying alternative sourcing solutions for impacted items.

因此，我們不會繼續從中國採購成品或原材料，而是利用現有庫存，同時快速開發和驗證受影響產品的替代採購解決方案。

As part of this effort, we have encouraged our business leaders and brand managers to embrace another round of SKU simplification, which is something Newell has proven to be very adept at having already cut our SKU count from over 100,000 items to less than 20,000 as of last year.

作為這項努力的一部分，我們鼓勵我們的業務領導和品牌經理進行新一輪的 SKU 簡化，事實證明 Newell 非常擅長此道，截至去年，我們已經將 SKU 數量從 100,000 多個減少到 20,000 個以下。

The other thing we are doing and which frankly, we are very excited about is aggressively selling and providing key strategic retailers access to our tariff-free North America manufacturing base during what we expect to be an extended period of constrained supply in certain product categories.

我們正在做的另一件事，坦白說，我們對此感到非常興奮，那就是積極銷售，並向關鍵戰略零售商提供進入我們免關稅北美製造基地的機會，我們預計在某些產品類別的供應將長期受限。

We have already secured notable wins in food storage and vacuum sealing bags, both of which are included in our updated guidance and are in active dialogue across many more fronts as we pursue opportunities to expand distribution and share shelf while simultaneously helping customers offer high-quality made in America Newell Brands to their customers.

我們已經在食品儲存和真空密封袋方面取得了顯著的勝利，這兩者都包含在我們最新的指導中，並且我們正在更多方面進行積極對話，尋求擴大分銷和共享貨架的機會，同時幫助客戶向他們的客戶提供高品質的美國製造的 Newell Brands 產品。

That said, and in full transparency, the one piece that is most challenging is baby gear, which is an industry-wide issue. This is because approximately 97% of baby strollers and 87% of baby car seats in the US are sourced from China.

話雖如此，坦白說，最具挑戰性的是嬰兒用品，這是一個整個行業的問題。這是因為美國約97%的嬰兒車和87%的嬰兒汽車座椅都來自中國。

In the past, the Trump administration offered Section 301 tariff exemptions on baby gear products to help young families afford the significant costs associated with having and raising children. Thus, we are hopeful the administration will do so again. But in the meantime, we will do everything we can to protect and manage our baby gear business.

過去，川普政府曾根據第301條款對嬰兒用品實施關稅豁免，以幫助年輕家庭承擔生育和撫養孩子帶來的巨額費用。因此，我們希望政府能夠再次這樣做。但同時，我們將竭盡全力保護和管理我們的嬰兒用品業務。

So before turning the call over to Mark Erceg, let me reiterate the key message coming out of this morning's call, which is as follows. We believe that the number of opportunities we have in advantaged categories where we have domestic or USMCA compliant production exempt from tariffs significantly exceeds the number of categories where we are disadvantaged.

因此，在將電話轉給馬克·埃爾塞格之前，請允許我重申一下今天早上電話會議中傳達的關鍵訊息，內容如下。我們相信，我們在國內或符合 USMCA 規定的生產免關稅的優勢類別中的機會數量遠遠超過我們處於劣勢的類別的數量。

Consistent with this, we are actively pursuing numerous incremental sales opportunities and are confident that these short-term challenges will give way to lasting medium-and long-term gains. When we look back a few years from now, we believe this time will be remembered as a pivotal point in Newell Brands' evolution into a high-performing world-class consumer products company.

與此一致，我們正在積極尋求眾多增量銷售機會，並相信這些短期挑戰將讓位給持久的中長期收益。當我們幾年後回顧時，我們相信這次將被銘記為 Newell Brands 發展成為高績效世界級消費品公司的關鍵點。

It has been seven quarters since we deployed our new strategy. We remain excited and energized by the progress we are making and the results we are delivering and look forward to sharing additional updates with you in the future.

我們部署新戰略已經七個季度了。我們對所取得的進展和所取得的成果感到興奮和充滿活力，並期待將來與您分享更多更新。

Finally, I'd like to thank our dedicated employees for their resilience throughout this dynamic environment and their continued commitment to operating with excellence and delighting consumers around the world. Mark Erceg?

最後，我要感謝我們敬業的員工，感謝他們在這個充滿活力的環境中表現出的堅韌，以及他們持續致力於卓越營運和取悅全球消費者。馬克·埃爾塞格？

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. First quarter 2025 core sales were minus 2.1%, which was at the high end of our guidance range, reflecting new product innovation and to a lesser extent, net pricing benefits. Both the Learning & Development segment and our International business, which represents nearly 40% of Newell's total sales posted positive core sales growth for the last five consecutive quarters which we believe further demonstrates that our new strategy and One Newell operating model are working.

謝謝，克里斯。大家早安。2025 年第一季核心銷售為負 2.1%，處於我們指導範圍的高端，反映了新產品創新以及在較小程度上淨定價效益。學習暨發展部門和國際業務佔 Newell 總銷售額的近 40%，連續五個季度實現核心銷售額正成長，我們相信這進一步證明了我們的新策略和 One Newell 營運模式正在發揮作用。

2025 first quarter net sales included about 2.5 points of currency headwind and just over 0.5 point of category exits. Normalized gross margin in the first quarter expanded by 150 basis points to 32.5% which was the seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvement. Gross productivity savings and pricing more than offset inflation and foreign exchange.

2025 年第一季淨銷售額包括約 2.5 點的貨幣逆風和略高於 0.5 點的類別退出。第一季標準化毛利率擴大150個基點至32.5%，這是連續第七個季度年增。總生產力的節省和定價足以抵消通貨膨脹和外匯的影響。

Please excuse us one moment, we're experiencing a little bit of technical difficulty. Please just hold for one moment. All dropped. It looks like we're making progress if you guys can hear me okay and if we can hear you okay we may begin again if you're ready.

請稍等片刻，我們遇到了一點技術困難。請稍等片刻。全部掉​​落。如果你們能聽到我說話的話，看起來我們正在取得進展，如果我們能聽到你們說話的話，如果你們準備好了，我們可能會重新開始。

Yeah, we can hear you.

是的，我們能聽到你的聲音。

That's great, thank you for your patience everyone allow us to begin again.

太好了，謝謝大家的耐心，讓我們重新開始。

Thanks, everyone, for being patient with us on our little technical snafu there. I'm going to go ahead and start with my first portion of my prepared remark transitioning over from Chris. So thanks, and good morning, everyone. First quarter 2025 core sales were minus 2.1%, which was at the high end of our guidance range, reflecting new product innovation and to a lesser extent, net pricing benefits.

謝謝大家對我們遇到的小技術故障的耐心。我將繼續從克里斯的發言開始，講我準備好的第一部分。謝謝大家，早安。2025 年第一季核心銷售為負 2.1%，處於我們指導範圍的高端，反映了新產品創新以及在較小程度上淨定價效益。

Both the Lending and Development segment and our International business, which represents nearly 40% of Newell's total sales, posted positive core sales growth for the last five consecutive quarters, which we believe further demonstrates that our new strategy in One Newell operating model are working.

貸款和開發部門以及我們的國際業務（佔 Newell 總銷售額的近 40%）在過去連續五個季度實現了核心銷售額的正增長，我們相信這進一步證明了我們在 One Newell 營運模式下的新策略正在發揮作用。

2025 first quarter net sales included about 2.5 points of currency headwind and just over 0.5 point of category exits. Normalized gross margin in the first quarter expanded by 150 basis points to 32.5%, which was the seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvement.

2025 年第一季淨銷售額包括約 2.5 點的貨幣逆風和略高於 0.5 點的類別退出。第一季標準化毛利率擴大150個基點至32.5%，這是連續第七個季度年增。

Gross productivity savings and pricing more than offset inflation and foreign exchange headwinds. During Q1, Newell's normalized operating margin was 4.5%, which was comfortably above the guidance range we provided during our last earnings call.

總生產力的節省和定價足以抵消通貨膨脹和外匯逆風的影響。在第一季度，Newell 的標準化營業利潤率為 4.5%，遠高於我們在上次收益電話會議上提供的指導範圍。

Operating margin results were better than anticipated despite higher levels of A&P investment for two reasons. First, core sales came in towards the top end of our guidance range; and second, gross margin performance was stronger than expected.

儘管廣告宣傳投資水準較高，但營業利潤率結果好於預期，原因有二。首先，核心銷售額達到了我們預期範圍的上限；其次，毛利率表現強於預期。

Net interest expense of $72 million represented an increase of $2 million from the prior year and a normalized income tax provision of $2 million was recorded in Q1. Relative to normalized diluted earnings per share, we recorded a loss of $0.01 in the quarter, but this was $0.05 to $0.08 above our guidance range without any discrete tax benefits distorting operating results.

淨利息支出為 7,200 萬美元，比前一年增加 200 萬美元，第一季記錄了 200 萬美元的正常化所得稅準備金。相對於標準化每股攤薄收益，我們本季錄得虧損 0.01 美元，但這比我們的指導範圍高出 0.05 至 0.08 美元，且沒有任何單獨的稅收優惠扭曲經營業績。

We had an operating cash outflow of $213 million versus a positive cash flow of $32 million in the year ago period. However, the first quarter is typically Newell's smallest quarter of the year due to seasonality and as a result, it has always historically been a cash take quarter.

我們的經營現金流為 2.13 億美元，而去年同期的營運現金流為 3,200 萬美元。然而，由於季節性原因，第一季通常是 Newell 一年中營業額最小的季度，因此從歷史上看，第一季一直是現金收入的季度。

Last year, we were able to break the trend due to a significant contribution from working capital, which lowered our cash conversion cycle by 30 days, coupled with a below target cash bonus payout, which is always made during the first quarter of the year.

去年，我們能夠打破這一趨勢，這要歸功於營運資本的重大貢獻，它將我們的現金轉換週期縮短了 30 天，再加上低於目標的現金獎金支付（這筆獎金總是在每年第一季支付）。

This year, our cash conversion cycle did improve by four additional days, but it would have improved even more absent the decision to pull some inventory purchases forward to avoid impending tariff increases. A significantly higher cash bonus payout versus a year ago also negatively impacted Q1 operating cash flow. Our net leverage ratio for the quarter was 5.3 times, which compares favorably to Q1 of 2024 when it was 5.6 times.

今年，我們的現金轉換週期確實提高了四天，但如果沒有決定提前購買部分庫存以避免即將到來的關稅上調，我們的現金轉換週期可能會改善更多。與去年同期相比，現金獎金支出大幅增加也對第一季的營運現金流產生了負面影響。本季我們的淨槓桿率為 5.3 倍，與 2024 年第一季的 5.6 倍相比有所改善。

Chris mentioned several ways we are mitigating the impact of looming tariffs, one of which included additional procurement and supply chain-related cost savings. Recently, I have been asked with increased frequency if there is still ample gross margin runway ahead of us.

克里斯提到了我們減輕迫在眉睫的關稅影響的幾種方法，其中之一包括額外的採購和供應鏈相關的成本節約。最近，我越來越常被問到我們的毛利率是否還有足夠的空間。

Thus, before I take you through our outlook for the full year and second quarter, I would like to address that. Newell Brands has 42 global manufacturing plants. And as mentioned earlier, 15 are in the US and two USMCA compliant facilities are located just over the border in Mexico.

因此，在我向您介紹我們對全年和第二季的展望之前，我想先談談這個問題。Newell Brands 在全球擁有 42 家製造工廠。如前所述，其中 15 家位於美國，另外兩家符合 USMCA 標準的工廠位於墨西哥邊境。

We have a strong frontline engagement program focused on continuous improvement that we refer to as peak, which is a mountain climbing metaphor, which connotes a never-ending climb to the summit of continual improvement.

我們有一個強大的一線參與計劃，專注於持續改進，我們稱之為“巔峰”，這是一個登山的隱喻，意味著永無止境地攀登到持續改進的頂峰。

Within peak, there are six levels of attainment and each level generally takes 12 to 24 months depending on the phase, size and complexity of the site to complete. Our first sites understandably took a little longer to ramp, but more recent sites have been moving faster through the program. Phase 1 is referred to as foundations. Phase 2 is base camp. Phases 3 through 5 are designated as CLIMB 1, 2 or 3 and this is where we expand in site, extend across the value chain were consolidate and optimize, respectively.

在高峰期，有六個完成級別，每個級別通常需要 12 到 24 個月，具體取決於站點的階段、大小和複雜程度。可以理解的是，我們的第一批站點需要更長的時間來提升，但最近的站點透過該計劃的進展速度更快。第 1 階段稱為基礎階段。第二階段是大本營。第 3 至 5 階段被指定為 CLIMB 1、2 或 3，我們分別在這些階段擴展場地、延伸整個價值鏈、進行鞏固和優化。

Finally, Phase 6 is the summit, where continual improvement has become the cultural norm and as such, is fully embedded in everything we do. Now with respect to our 42 plants, 15 of our smaller plants have not started their journey, 7 are in Phase 1 and 10 plants are in both Phases 2 and 3.

最後，第六階段是頂峰，持續改進已成為文化規範，並完全融入我們所做的每一件事中。現在，就我們的 42 家工廠而言，15 家小型工廠尚未開始運營，7 家工廠處於第一階段，10 家工廠處於第二階段和第三階段。

This means we don't have any plants that have reached phases 4 through 6 yet. Let me repeat that. We don't have any plants in Phases 4 through 6. In addition to our manufacturing facilities, we have 7 North American centers, all of which are in Phase 1 through Phase 3 of peak.

這意味著我們還沒有任何植物達到第 4 至第 6 階段。讓我重複一遍。我們在第 4 至第 6 階段沒有任何工廠。除了我們的製造工廠外，我們還有 7 個北美中心，所有中心均處於高峰期的第 1 階段至第 3 階段。

And we have only 14 distribution centers out of roughly 70 in total that are currently in either Phase 1 or 2. So yes, while we have made and are continuing to make solid progress in gaining meaningful cost efficiencies, we are not even halfway on our journey to the summit of continuous improvement, leaving ample room going forward for us to continue to improve Newell's gross margin and by proxy operating margin.

目前，我們大約有 70 個配送中心，其中只有 14 個處於第 1 階段或第 2 階段。所以是的，雖然我們在實現有意義的成本效率方面已經取得並將繼續取得堅實的進展，但我們在邁向持續改進頂峰的旅程中甚至還沒有走到一半，這為我們繼續提高 Newell 的毛利率和代理營業利潤率留下了充足的空間。

And of course, peak is just one of the many cost reduction and supply chain efficiency programs we're scaling across the enterprise. In just the past three years, we have reduced our supply chain staffing needs by 3,800 positions through our automation efforts, which gives us a tremendous opportunity to capture highly accretive unit economics as we look to leverage and monetize our strong domestic manufacturing base across our tariff advantaged categories.

當然，高峰只是我們在整個企業範圍內推廣的眾多成本削減和供應鏈效率計劃之一。僅在過去三年中，我們透過自動化努力就將供應鏈人員需求減少了 3,800 個，這為我們提供了巨大的機會來獲取高度增值的單位經濟效益，因為我們希望利用和貨幣化我們強大的國內製造業基礎，在關稅優勢類別中取得成功。

Now turning to our outlook. Having made a series of swift interventions, including targeted pricing actions, incremental cost reduction efforts and rapid sourcing decisions in conjunction with our Q1 bottom line over delivery, we expect to fully offset on a full year basis, all Bucket one tariffs Chris referenced during his prepared remark.

現在轉向我們的展望。透過一系列快速乾預措施，包括有針對性的定價行動、增量成本削減努力和快速採購決策，結合我們第一季度的交付底線，我們預計將在全年基礎上完全抵消克里斯在其準備好的發言中提到的所有第一桶關稅。

Therefore, today, we are affirming our 2025 financial outlook for net sales, normalized operating margin and normalized earnings per share. Specifically, net sales are still expected to be between negative 4% and negative 2%, which now includes an approximate 1% headwind largely driven by category exits.

因此，今天，我們確認了 2025 年淨銷售額、標準化營業利潤率和標準化每股盈餘的財務前景。具體而言，淨銷售額預計仍將在負 4% 至負 2% 之間，其中包括主要由類別退出引起的約 1% 的逆風。

Normalized operating margin remains unchanged at 9% to 9.5%, which at the midpoint represents roughly 110 basis point improvement from 2024 and is more than double our evergreen target of a 50 basis point improvement each year. And our normalized diluted earnings per share range is unchanged at $0.70 to $0.76, which represents an 18% increase versus 2024 at the midpoint and on a tax equivalent basis.

標準化營業利潤率維持在 9% 至 9.5% 不變，中間值比 2024 年提高約 110 個基點，是我們每年提高 50 個基點的常青目標的兩倍多。我們的標準化稀釋每股收益範圍保持不變，為 0.70 美元至 0.76 美元，與 2024 年中點和稅收等值基礎相比增長 18%。

Please note that this normalized diluted earnings per share range still assumes an effective tax rate in the low to mid-teens but also includes a higher level of expected interest expense, which we will likely incur when we refinance the remaining balance on our outstanding April 2026 notes at some point later this year.

請注意，此標準化稀釋每股收益範圍仍假設有效稅率在低至中等水平，但也包括更高水平的預期利息支出，這筆支出很可能在今年晚些時候我們為未償還的 2026 年 4 月票據的剩餘餘額進行再融資時產生。

With all this being said, it becomes clear that the only substantive change we are making to our full year 2025 guidance relates to core sales. Core sales are now expected to be between minus 3% to minus 1% versus our previous expectation for core sales that finished the year between minus 2% and plus 1%.

綜上所述，很明顯我們對 2025 年全年指引做出的唯一實質改變與核心銷售有關。目前預計核心銷售額將在-3%至-1%之間，而我們之前預計今年核心銷售額將在-2%至+1%之間。

As Chris mentioned earlier, this change is solely due to a slightly more pessimistic view of category growth, which we now expect to be essentially down 1% to 2% in 2025. Previously, we had expected our categories in aggregate to be flat.

正如克里斯之前提到的，這種變化完全是由於對類別成長的看法略微悲觀，我們現在預計到 2025 年類別成長將下降 1% 至 2%。在此之前，我們曾預期我們的類別將整體保持穩定。

Finally, for the full year, we have widened our operating cash flow range to between $400 million to $500 million from the previous range of $450 million to $500 million, primarily due to higher tariff-induced inventory valuations. Putting all this together and combining projected cash flow and EBITDA growth, we continue to expect a year-end 2025 leverage ratio of about 4.5 times, which is roughly three-fourth of a turn better than where it sits today and moves us closer to our longer-term ambition of being an investment-grade debt issue.

最後，就全年而言，我們將經營現金流範圍從先前的 4.5 億至 5 億美元擴大至 4 億至 5 億美元之間，這主要是由於關稅導致的庫存估值上升。綜合以上因素並結合預期的現金流量和 EBITDA 成長，我們繼續預期 2025 年底的槓桿率約為 4.5 倍，比目前的水平高出約四分之三，使我們更接近成為投資級債務發行的長期目標。

As it relates to the second quarter of 2025, we expect both net and core sales to decline 5% to 3%, operating margin to be between 10.4% and 10.8% and with a tax rate in the mid-teens, normalized diluted earnings per share of $0.21 to $0.24. So in closing, despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, we remain confident that the substantial investments we have made to strengthen our core capabilities are accelerating Newell's business transformation and have put us in a position to not just navigate through today's dynamic business environment but to actually emerge even stronger.

就2025年第二季而言，我們預期淨銷售額和核心銷售額將分別下降5%至3%，營業利潤率將在10.4%至10.8%之間，稅率在15%左右，標準化稀釋每股收益將在0.21美元至0.24美元之間。總而言之，儘管宏觀經濟環境充滿挑戰，但我們仍然相信，我們為增強核心能力而進行的大量投資正在加速Newell的業務轉型，並使我們不僅能夠應對當今充滿活力的商業環境，而且實際上能夠變得更加強大。

This is because we have significantly more categories, which should benefit from these increased tariffs than be harmed by them due to our strong domestic and US MCA compliant manufacturing capabilities. It is for this reason, we are affirming our 2025 financial outlook for net sales, normalized operating margin and normalized EPS as it relates to all Bucket 1 tariffs, which, as noted in our press release, include the initial two rounds of IEEPA tariffs on China totaling 20%, Section 232 global steel and aluminum tariffs, all other reciprocal tariffs of 10% currently in effect for countries outside of China and any territory tariffs that other countries have enacted against the United States.

這是因為我們擁有強大的國內和符合美國 MCA 標準的製造能力，因此我們擁有更多的產品類別，這些產品類別應該會從這些增加的關稅中受益，而不是受到損害。正是出於這個原因，我們確認了 2025 年淨銷售額、標準化營業利潤率和標準化每股收益的財務前景，因為它與所有第一類關稅有關，正如我們的新聞稿中所述，這些關稅包括對中國徵收的最初兩輪 IEEPA 關稅（總額為 20%）、第 232 條全球鋼鐵和鋁關稅、目前對中國以外國家的所有其他 10% 的其他互惠。

If the additional 125% China tariff remains in effect for the full year, we currently estimate based on a comprehensive sensitivity analysis we have conducted, that the unmitigated impact could reduce Newell Brands' 2025 normalized operating earnings per share by approximately $0.20.

如果對中國徵收的額外 125% 關稅在全年繼續生效，我們目前根據進行的全面敏感性分析估計，未緩解的影響可能會使 Newell Brands 2025 年每股正常營業收益減少約 0.20 美元。

That said, we already have clear line of sight to recover at least half of this impact which means the net impact of the continued 125% China tariffs for the rest of the year to be a reduction of up to $0.10 on our normalized EPS guidance range of $0.70 to $0.76.

也就是說，我們已經有明確的目標來收回至少一半的影響，這意味著在今年剩餘時間內繼續對中國徵收 125% 的關稅的淨影響將使我們標準化每股收益指導範圍（0.70 美元至 0.76 美元）減少高達 0.10 美元。

Operator, we'll now open the call for questions.

接線員，我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員指示）

Andrea Teixeira, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的安德里亞特謝拉 (Andrea Teixeira)。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to just go back to what you both said in terms of the retail destocking and also a clarification on the tariffs and the 125%. But just on the destocking and consumption, if you can walk us through how was the exit rate for consumption.

謝謝。大家早安。我想回到你們關於零售去庫存的問題以及對關稅和 125% 的澄清。但就去庫存和消費而言，您能否向我們介紹一下消費退出率如何？

And if we are mostly out of -- it seems like from your second quarter guidance, you to assuming some destocking by retailers and how we should be thinking about those as you said yourself to the big season for back-to-school?

如果我們基本上已經擺脫了庫存——從您第二季度的指導來看，您似乎假設零售商會進行一些去庫存化，那麼我們應該如何看待這些情況，正如您自己所說的，這是返校季的重要時期？

And then second would be the tariff, the 125% mitigation efforts. You did call out that it was not included in your guidance, but the $0.20 impact and you would have mitigation for half of it. So we are just wondering if you can explain what those one is the likelihood in the mitigation, not likelihood, of course, it's out of your control, but what are the mitigation efforts that you would see? And why to begin with, you didn't include that tariff in the guidance? Thank you.

第二是關稅，即 125% 的減排措施。您確實指出這並未包含在您的指導中，但其影響為 0.20 美元，並且您將可以減輕其中的一半。所以我們只是想知道您是否可以解釋一下緩解措施中的可能性，當然不是可能性，這超出了您的控制範圍，但是您會看到哪些緩解措施？為什麼一開始你們沒有在指導中包含該關稅？謝謝。

Yeah, very good. Thanks, Andrea. So let me start with the first part of your question. Through the first quarter, we delivered, obviously, core sales growth of minus 2.1%, which was at the high end of our guidance range and frankly, a little bit better than our base plan.

是的，非常好。謝謝，安德里亞。那麼讓我從你的問題的第一部分開始。在第一季度，我們的核心銷售額顯然成長了-2.1%，這處於我們預期範圍的高端，坦白說，比我們的基本計劃要好一點。

We have not -- so through Q1, we believe we're on track. We decided to lower our market growth assumption from what was previously flat when we issued guidance in February to now down 1% to 2% out of a spirit of caution and prudence, given what we've seen from consumer confidence levels and broader macroeconomic forecast.

我們還沒有——所以透過第一季度，我們相信我們正走在正軌上。鑑於消費者信心水準和更廣泛的宏觀經濟預測，出於謹慎和審慎的精神，我們決定將市場成長假設從 2 月發布指引時的持平狀態下調至目前的下降 1% 至 2%。

We have not yet seen consumption levels decline in our categories broadly versus our plan, but we believe that it's prudent for us to do that because we didn't want to wind up over planning the inventory and having too much cash flow.

與我們的計劃相比，我們尚未看到我們產品類別的消費水準大幅下降，但我們認為這樣做是謹慎的，因為我們不想最終過度規劃庫存並產生過多的現金流。

So that's why we took the decision to lower the forecast for market growth this year. We believe it's prudent. We believe it derisks the plan. And frankly, we believe that we have a plan to fully offset that and not have an impact operating income or earnings per share as a result. On the retailer inventory levels, we really didn't see a significant change in retailer inventory levels in Q1 of any magnitude.

這就是我們決定下調今年市場成長預測的原因。我們認為這是謹慎的做法。我們相信這可以降低該計劃的風險。坦白說，我們相信我們有一個計劃可以完全抵消這一影響，並且不會對營業收入或每股收益產生影響。就零售商庫存水準而言，我們確實沒有看到第一季零售商庫存水準有任何顯著變化。

Recall that the liberation Day tariffs were announced on April 2, so after Q1 ended. And so we didn't see a big surge in retailer inventory levels in Q1. That being said, as we've talked many times in the past, we do tend to look at our business on six-month periods versus quarterly periods because sometimes order flow associated with promotional events can drive a point or two of difference between one quarter and another quarter.

回想一下，解放日關稅是在 4 月 2 日宣布的，也就是在第一季結束後。因此，我們在第一季沒有看到零售商庫存水準大幅增加。話雖如此，正如我們過去多次談到的那樣，我們確實傾向於以六個月而不是季度來審視我們的業務，因為有時與促銷活動相關的訂單流可能會導致一個季度與另一個季度之間出現一兩個點的差異。

So relative to our going-in plan, we believe we're right on track for the first half of the year, including the Q2 guidance when put together with the Q1 result. On the tariff mitigation, as we said in the prepared remark, we have taken already proactive action to fully mitigate the tariffs that we mentioned in our bucket 1, which include all tariffs, except for the additional 125% on China.

因此，相對於我們的計劃，我們相信上半年的業績進展順利，包括將第二季業績指引與第一季業績結合。關於關稅減免，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，我們已經採取了積極行動，全面減免我們在第一類中提到的關稅，其中包括除對中國額外徵收的 125% 關稅以外的所有關稅。

We chose to put that as a sensitivity because frankly, there's a lot of discussion about that tariff level being unsustainable. We're not sure if it's going to sustain for the year or not. If it does sustain for the year, our biggest exposure is the baby gear category.

我們選擇將其作為敏感問題，因為坦率地說，有很多討論認為該關稅水平是不可持續的。我們不確定這種狀況是否能持續一年。如果這種趨勢能持續一年，我們最大的關注點就是嬰兒用品類別。

Now let me put that into perspective a little bit because -- as I said, we've already taken a number of mitigation actions on baby gear. So first of all, if you look at the baby business, about 20% of our baby business is Baby Care, which is the NUK brand, primarily.

現在讓我稍微客觀地解釋一下這一點，因為——正如我所說，我們已經針對嬰兒用品採取了一些緩解措施。首先，如果你看一下嬰兒業務，我們大約 20% 的嬰兒業務是嬰兒護理，主要是 NUK 品牌。

On the baby care business, we are not tariff exposed. And in fact, we are tariff advantaged because we manufacture the NUK brand in a manufacturing plant in Wisconsin. So we believe on that business, we are likely to gain market share as many of our competitors are sourcing from China, they are going to have tariff costs, we are not.

在嬰兒護理業務方面，我們不受關稅影響。事實上，我們享有關稅優勢，因為我們在威斯康辛州的一家製造工廠生產 NUK 品牌。因此，我們相信，在這項業務上，我們可能會獲得市場份額，因為我們的許多競爭對手都從中國採購，他們會產生關稅成本，而我們則不會。

And so we're in active discussions with retailers right now on the Baby Care business to move their shelf space from China-sourced products to our Wisconsin-sourced products. There's then a second part of the baby business which is the gear business that's sold outside the United States, which is another 20% of the business that also is not impacted by tariffs.

因此，我們目前正在與嬰兒護理業務的零售商積極討論，將他們的貨架空間從中國採購的產品轉移到我們威斯康辛州採購的產品。嬰兒業務的第二部分是在美國境外銷售的裝備業務，這佔業務的另外 20% 也不受關稅的影響。

And then there's the remainder of the baby gear business, which is about 60% of the overall baby business that is generally sourced from China and sold in the United States. And that part of the business we've taken two rounds of pricing so far.

然後還有剩餘的嬰兒用品業務，約佔整個嬰兒業務的60%，通常從中國採購並在美國銷售。到目前為止，我們已經對該部分業務進行了兩輪定價。

We took a 10% price increase for the tariffs that was effective on April 1 that has already gone into effect. We announced a second 10% price increase that's going into effect tomorrow. So we will have priced up the baby gear products by about 20% to date. We have not priced yet for the 125% tariffs for a couple of reasons.

我們對 4 月 1 日生效的關稅進行了 10% 的漲價，該關稅已經生效。我們宣布第二次 10% 的價格上漲，將於明天生效。因此，到目前為止，我們的嬰兒用品價格已上漲約 20%。由於幾個原因，我們尚未對 125% 的關稅進行定價。

One is, we accelerated, as Mark Erceg mentioned, inventory purchases into the United States prior to the implementation of the tariffs. And so as we sit here today, we have probably three or four months of inventory on hand in the US that is not subject to the tariff.

一是，正如馬克·埃爾塞格所提到的，我們在關稅實施之前加快了對美國的庫存採購。因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們在美國可能有三到四個月的庫存不受關稅影響。

We've also paused additional input or orders of inventory from China at this point. So we're not paying the tariff at this point. At some point, we will begin to run out of inventory. Retailers will begin to run out of inventory, and we will turn back on reordering from China. When that happens, because the whole industry sources from China, we would expect that we and the rest of the industry will take additional pricing to offset the tariff cost.

目前，我們也暫停了來自中國的額外輸入或庫存訂單。因此我們現在不支付關稅。到了某個時候，我們的庫存就會開始用完。零售商將開始缺貨，我們將重新向中國訂購。當這種情況發生時，由於整個行業都從中國採購，我們預計我們和整個行業將採取額外的定價來抵消關稅成本。

And so that's -- but we're monitoring it on sort of a daily basis. If the tariff regime changes in the meantime, I think we're well positioned. If the tariffs remain in effect I think also we're well positioned despite what will likely be a period of some volatility during this transition period.

就是這樣——但我們每天都在監控它。如果關稅制度在此期間發生變化，我認為我們將處於有利地位。如果關稅繼續有效，我認為儘管過渡期間可能會出現一些波動，但我們仍處於有利地位。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

Hey, thanks, good morning. You guys mentioned looking to utilize your US capacity and talking to retailers and effectively looking to contract manufacture in your plan, I think, is what you were suggesting. So I just wanted to understand that a little bit better. Are you considering doing private label for retailers? I just want to understand a little bit more about in the near term, how you were -- what you meant to sort of say about leveraging the US-based manufacturing and the excess slack that you have in the system? Thanks.

嘿，謝謝，早安。你們提到希望利用美國的產能、與零售商交談並有效地尋求合約製造，我認為這就是你們計劃中的建議。所以我只是想更好地理解這一點。您是否考慮為零售商提供自有品牌？我只是想進一步了解近期的情況，您打算如何利用美國製造業和系統中的過剩產能？謝謝。

Yeah, thanks, thanks, Lauren. Yes, let me clarify. We've been asked by a number of retailers, whether we would be willing to do their private label because much of the private label products that retailers are selling are sourced from China. Our answer has been that we're not really set up to do that.

是的，謝謝，謝謝，勞倫。是的，讓我澄清一下。許多零售商詢問我們是否願意為他們做自有品牌，因為零售商銷售的大部分自有品牌產品都來自中國。我們的回答是，我們還沒準備好這麼做。

So that's not what we're referring to. Instead, what we're recommending is that the retailers basically discontinue their private label product and replace it with our branded product. In addition, there's a number of our competitive brands that are 100% sourced from Asia that are subject to significant tariff where we are not.

所以這不是我們所指的。相反，我們建議零售商基本上停止他們的自有品牌產品，並用我們的品牌產品取代。此外，我們的許多競爭品牌 100% 都來自亞洲，因此需要繳納高額關稅，而我們則不需要。

And so we're recommending there retailers replace other branded products that are sourced from Asia with our branded products that are sourced from either the US or Mexico. Let me give you an example. We have a blender plant in Mexico is one of our two Mexican blender plants. We have invested over the last several years, significant amount of money in automating that blender plant.

因此，我們建議零售商以來自美國或墨西哥的品牌產品取代來自亞洲的其他品牌產品。讓我給你舉個例子。我們在墨西哥有一家攪拌機廠，這是我們在墨西哥的兩家攪拌機廠之一。過去幾年來，我們投入了大量資金來實現該攪拌機工廠的自動化。

And as a result, the capacity on that blender plant has virtually doubled, and we are operating with 50% capacity. So we can scale up that blender plant to take and supply the US market. That blender plant largely today supplies Latin America.

結果，該攪拌機工廠的產能實際上翻了一番，目前我們的營運產能為 50%。因此，我們可以擴大攪拌機工廠的規模，以滿足並供應美國市場的需求。如今，該攪拌機工廠主要向拉丁美洲供應產品。

It does not supply the US, but almost all blenders that are sold in the US come from either China or other Southeast Asia countries that are going to be subject to some amount of tariff. Our blender plant in Latin America or Mexico is not subject to any tariffs. And so we believe it's going to create a competitive advantage.

它不向美國供貨，但幾乎所有在美國銷售的攪拌機都來自中國或其他東南亞國家，這些國家將受到一定數量的關稅。我們在拉丁美洲或墨西哥的攪拌機工廠不受任何關稅的影響。因此我們相信它將創造競爭優勢。

So we are in active dialogue with retailers at discontinuing other branded blenders and replacing them with Oster branded blenders because our products will become a much better value versus competitive blender products. That's an example of what we're trying to talk about here.

因此，我們正在與零售商積極溝通，停止銷售其他品牌的攪拌機，並用 Oster 品牌的攪拌機取而代之，因為我們的產品比競爭對手的攪拌機產品更有價值。這就是我們在此試圖討論的一個例子。

Okay, that's great. And then also, I know you mentioned in terms of your core sales guidance and your expectations on cat. I just want to make sure I heard correctly that at this point, you haven't really seen any change in consumer behavior in your categories that is different than what you had in your budget, but that you're adjusting the core sales guidance on an assumption that the environment does become more challenged and to avoid having excess inventory if that comes to pass?

好的，太好了。另外，我知道您提到了核心銷售指導和對 Cat 的期望。我只是想確保我聽得正確，目前為止，您還沒有真正看到您的產品類別中的消費者行為有任何與您的預算不同的變化，但是您正在調整核心銷售指導，因為假設環境確實變得更具挑戰性，並且為了避免庫存過剩？

Yes, that's correct. And it's interesting because it's a little bit hard to predict. We just felt like it was prudent to do that based on sort of the macro forecast even though we haven't seen it. It could be that we're wrong and the category does better than we think.

是的，正確。這很有趣，因為它有點難以預測。儘管我們還沒有看到，但我們只是覺得根據宏觀預測這樣做是謹慎的。有可能我們錯了，這個類別的表現比我們想像的還要好。

One of the trends that we've been talking with market researchers about is if consumers begin to cut back on eating out at restaurants and that type of thing and start to spend more time eating at home, that generally is a tailwind for our category of our kitchen products.

我們與市場研究人員討論的一個趨勢是，如果消費者開始減少外出用餐等活動，並開始花更多時間在家吃飯，這通常會對我們的廚房產品類別產生推動作用。

And so it's possible that depending on how this plays out, we may be wrong and overly conservative in our outlook. But we felt like we would rather err on the side of being a little bit more muted in our category growth outlook to ensure that we don't overbuild inventory and ensure that we deliver the cash flow that's in our cash flow forecast.

因此，根據事態發展，我們的觀點可能是錯誤的，而且可能過於保守。但我們覺得，我們寧願在類別成長前景上保持謹慎，以確保我們不會過度累積庫存，並確保我們實現現金流預測中的現金流。

Perfect. Okay, thanks so much. I'll pass it on.

完美的。好的，非常感謝。我會傳達的。

Steve Powers, Deutsche.

史蒂夫鮑爾斯，德國。

Sorry about that. I was on mute. Assuming the tariff the China tariffs do remain. It sounds like you would not really start to feel the impacts that you've called out until the second half of the year. So a couple of questions around that.

很抱歉。我處於靜音狀態。假設關稅不變，中國關稅確實維持不變。聽起來，直到今年下半年你才會真正感受到你所稱的影響。圍繞這一點我有幾個問題。

First, if we think about the annualized 12-month impact should we be thinking kind of 2 times as a run rate? Or would the longer-term impacts be a little bit more muted before mitigation and maybe some seasonality, question number one.

首先，如果我們考慮年度化的 12 個月影響，我們是否應該將 2 倍視為運行率？或者，在緩解措施和一些季節性因素出現之前，長期影響是否會變得更加溫和，這是第一個問題。

And then if you could, just sort of the sensitivities that you've run, what would be the analogous impacts on operating cash flow, both in fiscal '25 and on an annualized basis as well as on your forward leverage ratio expectations?

然後，如果可以的話，僅就您所考慮的敏感度而言，對 25 財年和年度經營現金流以及您的遠期槓桿率預期會產生哪些類似的影響？

Great questions. So as we think about the tariff effects, they would, as you rightly said, largely fall into the second half of the year. As we've done our math, we probably think the impact would be roughly 40% in the third quarter, 60% in the fourth. That's partly driven by some of the commentary that Chris offered earlier. As we sit here today at March 31, Home & Commercial had about 110 days on hand, Learning & Development was around 120.

很好的問題。因此，當我們考慮關稅效應時，正如您正確指出的那樣，它們將主要集中在下半年。根據我們的計算，我們可能認為第三季的影響約為 40%，第四季的影響約為 60%。這在一定程度上是受到克里斯之前提出的一些評論的影響。今天是 3 月 31 日，家居和商業部門還有大約 110 天的空閒時間，學習和發展部門還有大約 120 天的空閒時間。

Outdoor & Rec had a higher number than that, right? So we have inventory that we can actually bleed through and work into the system. As far as the cash impact, if that $0.10 that we can't mitigate actually does come home to roost, and we put that on an after-tax basis, that's probably a $30 million impact to operating cash flow in the current year.

戶外和娛樂的數量比這個高，對嗎？因此，我們擁有可以實際利用並融入系統的庫存。就現金影響而言，如果我們無法減輕的 0.10 美元確實產生了影響，並且我們將其按稅後基礎計算，這可能會對本年度的經營現金流造成 3000 萬美元的影響。

Now that said, we widened our range of $400 million to $500 million. And so it's entirely reasonable to assume that it could fall within that. And then as far as trying to project that out into '26, frankly, I don't think that's a game we really want to play right now because I think people are thinking about tariffs in isolation. And I'm not an economist, I'm not a politician, most certainly, but there's a lot of other things at play here. And we're talking about consumer dynamics.

話雖如此，我們將範圍從 4 億美元擴大到 5 億美元。因此，完全有理由假設它可能屬於這一範圍。至於試圖將其投射到 26 年，坦白說，我認為這不是我們現在真正想玩的遊戲，因為我認為人們正在孤立地考慮關稅。當然，我不是經濟學家，也不是政治家，但這裡還有很多其他因素在運作。我們正在談論消費者動態。

Fuel prices are down. The last few inflation reports were fairly benign. There is talk about a meaningful tax cut that would largely advantage and help the lower middle class. So it's really, I think, too early to say what this looks like on an ongoing basis.

燃料價格下降。最近幾份通膨報告都相當溫和。有傳言稱，一項有意義的減稅計劃將在很大程度上有利於並幫助中下階層。因此，我認為現在就判斷這種情況的持續發展還為時過早。

We just know that we're well positioned as we sit here today. We invested in a domestic manufacturing base that others have not chosen to do, and we're ready and prepared to help our strategic retailers provide great high-quality products to their consumers.

我們只是知道，我們今天坐在這裡，處於有利地位。我們投資了其他人尚未選擇的國內製造基地，我們已做好準備，幫助我們的策略零售商為消費者提供優質的產品。

The other thing I would say on that, which is interesting, is that there's a bit of a timing impact here -- so in all of these categories where we are advantaged with US or Mexican manufacturing, that revenue up lever that we expect is going to be a little bit delayed because it relies on retailers changing their store shelves or changing their merchandise events, which tends to take a little bit of time to work through the system.

關於這一點我想說的另一件事很有趣，那就是這裡面有一點時間上的影響——所以在所有這些我們在美國或墨西哥製造方面具有優勢的類別中，我們預計收入上升槓桿將會有點延遲，因為它依賴於零售商改變他們的商店貨架或改變他們的商品活動，這往往需要一點時間才能通過系統發揮作用。

And so That, as a tailwind, I would expect would be significantly larger in 2026 than 2025 given the timing of implementation of that. The tariff impact on baby, which again affects the whole industry, baby gear in the US, I think creates a little bit of a near-term issue, but if the market moves up in pricing, which I expect it will, if it sustains, it's unclear whether that continues as a headwind into '26 or not.

因此，考慮到實施的時間，我預期 2026 年的順風效應將比 2025 年顯著增強。關稅對嬰兒產品的影響，又會影響到整個美國嬰兒用品行業，我認為這會造成一些短期問題，但如果市場價格上漲（我預計它會上漲），如果這種情況持續下去，那麼還不清楚這種不利因素是否會持續到26年。

Yes, okay. Very good, very good. Do you have -- it sounds like you have a lot of active conversations ongoing where you are competitively advantaged. In terms of our expectations, when do you think -- I mean, to your point, most of this, as you are successful, probably benefit next year more than this year. But when do you feel like those conversations will start to materialize in actual contracted change?

是的，好的。很好，很好。您是否—聽起來您正在進行許多積極的對話，並且在這些對話中您具有競爭優勢。就我們的預期而言，您認為什麼時候——我的意思是，就您的觀點而言，由於您取得了成功，因此明年的收益可能會比今年更大。但是您覺得這些對話何時會開始在實際的合約變更中實現呢？

Yeah, so we've seen a couple of them already. I mentioned in the prepared remark, on our FoodSaver consumables business, we've gotten some wins there because some of the competitive product was sourced from China. The retailer that was selling that has basically discontinued that item and moved their entire business back to us. So that's a win that will start to materialize in July.

是的，我們已經見過其中幾個了。我在準備好的演講中提到，在我們的 FoodSaver 消耗品業務中，我們取得了一些勝利，因為一些競爭產品來自中國。銷售該產品的零售商基本上已經停止銷售該產品，並將整個業務轉移回給我們。所以這個勝利將在七月開始實現。

Also on Rubbermaid Food Storage, we've gotten a significant uptake in that business I think I mentioned on the last call, we have a major innovation that's launching this summer with Rubbermaid Easy store that's replacing easy fine lids. It also happens in that business that we manufacture that product in Ohio, and much of the competitive product is coming from Asia.

此外，在 Rubbermaid 食品儲存方面，我們在該業務上取得了顯著的增長，我想我在上次電話會議上提到過，我們將於今年夏天推出一項重大創新，即 Rubbermaid Easy store，它將取代簡易精細蓋子。我們在俄亥俄州生產該產品，而大部分競爭產品來自亞洲。

And so we've gotten significant wins on that, both in terms of promotions that are shifting from competitive product to us and in terms of some of the private label product being delisted entirely because it's no longer economically viable that was coming from China. We are beyond those two categories, we are in active discussions on 19 total categories.

因此，我們在這方面取得了重大勝利，無論是促銷活動從競爭產品轉向我們，還是部分來自中國的自有品牌產品因不再具有經濟可行性而被完全下架。除了這兩個類別之外，我們還在對總共 19 個類別進行積極討論。

And so we factored those two into our guidance, but there are 17 others where we believe we've got a significant competitive advantage that we're having active discussions across our top 10 retailers as we speak on how to navigate and move their stores to advantage our brands.

因此，我們將這兩個因素納入了我們的指導範圍，但我們認為，在其他 17 個方面我們也擁有顯著的競爭優勢，我們正在與前 10 家零售商進行積極討論，探討如何引導和轉移他們的商店，以使我們的品牌受益。

Okay, thank you. That's very helpful framing. Appreciate it. I'll pass it on.

好的，謝謝。這是非常有用的框架。非常感謝。我會傳達的。

Bill Chappell, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。

Thanks. Good morning. Taking a step back, I guess I'm not 100% sure. I understand why you're continuing to have guidance. And I say that I understand kind of how you operate and your -- and you understand your tariff exposure and pricing, but it seems like forecasting market growth, especially when it's a combination of volume and price is next to impossible at this point for all your various categories.

謝謝。早安.退一步來說，我想我不是 100% 確定。我明白你為什麼繼續尋求指導。我說我了解你們的運作方式以及你們的關稅風險和定價，但對於你們的各個類別來說，預測市場成長，特別是當它是數量和價格的組合時，目前幾乎是不可能的。

So maybe help us understand how you're keen to that estimate? And are you expecting price to be up double digits and volumes being down double digits and how your competitors will -- I'm just trying to understand how we get confidence and not necessarily your numbers in a vacuum, but the market growth over the next two, three quarters?

那麼也許可以幫助我們了解您對該估計有何看法？您是否預計價格會上漲兩位數，而銷量會下降兩位數，以及您的競爭對手將如何——我只是想了解我們如何獲得信心，不一定是在真空中了解您的數字，而是了解未來兩到三個季度的市場增長情況？

Yeah, It's a good question. We spent a fair amount of time talking about that. And I think we feel like in the majority of our business is not tariff-impacted. And so when we're talking about the tariff impact, the tariff impact of significance is largely this China 125%, which is largely centered on the baby gear category which is for import into the US, which is less than 10% will company revenue.

是的，這是個好問題。我們花了相當多的時間討論這個問題。我認為我們的大部分業務並未受到關稅的影響。因此，當我們談論關稅影響時，重要的關稅影響主要是中國 125% 的關稅，這主要集中在進口到美國的嬰兒用品類別，對公司收入的影響不到 10%。

And so for 90%-plus of our business, the tariff impact is relatively minor. And we've got a plan to fully offset it, as I mentioned. And so we think that our thought on this is that we have pretty good visibility internally to the plan, how we're adjusting the plan, how we're offsetting this. And we have a view of what we would do if this 125% sustains on China.

因此，對於我們 90% 以上的業務而言，關稅的影響相對較小。正如我所提到的，我們有一個計劃來完全抵消它。因此，我們認為，我們對此的想法是，我們對計劃內部有相當好的了解，我們如何調整計劃，如何抵消這一點。我們對如果這 125% 的成長率持續發生在中國會採取什麼措施有一個看法。

You're right that our ability to forecast in the current macro environment has become more challenged. But I think our other view is that given the data that we have, we believe that providing some guidance is helpful to the Street because if we left it out there with no guidance, we feel like people would be all over the map and not really understanding.

您說得對，我們在當前宏觀環境下的預測能力受到了更大的挑戰。但我認為我們的另一種觀點是，根據我們掌握的數據，我們相信提供一些指導對華爾街是有幫助的，因為如果我們不提供任何指導，我們覺得人們就會一片混亂，無法真正理解。

And we actually feel, I think, better about our position than what I think the market was thinking about our position over the last three months. Because if you look back on this period, as I mentioned in the prepared remark, a year or two from now, I actually think this is going to be a benefit for Newell, all in because the advantaged categories that we have with our US manufacturing base significantly exceed the number of places where we're disadvantaged.

我認為，我們對我們的地位的實際感覺比過去三個月市場對我們地位的看法要好。因為如果你回顧這段時期，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，一兩年後，我實際上認為這對 Newell 來說是一個好處，因為我們在美國製造基地擁有的優勢類別遠遠超過我們處於劣勢的地方的數量。

We've heard some of our competitors who are 100% sourced from China talk about going out of business. We're not anywhere close to that position. We're talking about [19] product categories where we're competitively advantaged, where we're selling, we've got incremental capacity.

我們聽說一些 100% 從中國採購的競爭對手談到要倒閉。我們離那個位置還很遠。我們正在談論[19]個我們具有競爭優勢的產品類別，我們正在銷售這些產品類別，並且我們擁有增量產能。

And by the way, that incremental capacity with -- when you factor in the fixed cost element of our manufacturing base is highly profitable. And so if we do our job well and sell the incremental volume on our US and Mexican manufacturing base, I think we're going to come out stronger over the medium and long term then if the tariffs had not gone into place.

順便說一句，當你考慮到我們製造基地的固定成本因素時，增量產能的利潤非常高。因此，如果我們做好自己的工作，並在美國和墨西哥製造基地銷售增量產品，我認為從中期和長期來看，我們的表現將比沒有關稅時更加強勁。

And if I could, we talked in the past about how we've largely rebuilt our internal management reporting systems and our new trade fund management system that allows us to get much better price promotion diagnostics. And so we feel that we have demonstrated the ability to be pretty good with respect to our forecast as of late. And then as Chris intimated, we feel guidance is, frankly, an obligation of management.

如果可以的話，我們過去曾討論過如何重建我們的內部管理報告系統和新的貿易基金管理系統，這使我們能夠獲得更好的價格促銷診斷。因此，我們認為，我們最近的預測已經證明我們有能力做出相當好的預測。正如克里斯所暗示的，我們認為指導坦率地說是管理層的義務。

We don't own this company. We have an obligation to our owners to tell them what we know. Now part of our approach to this particular exercise, I will say that we really went out of our way to derisk our fiscal year plan. And that's why I think we've been so communicative on all these different elements as we sit here today.

我們不擁有這家公司。我們有義務向我們的業主告知我們所知道的情況。現在，作為我們針對這項特定任務的部分處理方法，我想說的是，我們確實竭盡全力來降低財政年度計劃的風險。這就是為什麼我認為我們今天坐在這裡就所有這些不同因素進行瞭如此深入的溝通。

Yeah, I appreciate it. I just because it's still -- it seems like it's in a vacuum because we don't know if you're competitors have liquidation sales or what they do with pricing or stuff like that. That's what I understand you can forecast. I'm just trying to understand how you forecast your (inaudible)

是的，我很感激。我只是因為它仍然——它似乎處於真空狀態，因為我們不知道你的競爭對手是否有清倉銷售，或者他們對定價或諸如此類的事情做什麼。據我了解，您可以預測這一點。我只是想了解你如何預測你的（聽不清楚）

Brian McNamara, Canaccord Genuity.

Canaccord Genuity 的 Brian McNamara。

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking the questions. So I guess the China sensitivity sounds a little worse than we would have expected, given your relatively low exposure there and your high district sourcing. Is it simply just lack of pricing in the baby category specifically with triple-digit tariffs in place? Or is there anything else we should be considering?

嘿，大家早安。感謝您回答這些問題。因此，考慮到你們在中國的曝光度相對較低且地區採購量較高，我認為你們對中國的敏感度聽起來比我們預期的要差一些。嬰兒用品的定價是否僅僅因為缺乏，尤其是三位數的關稅？或者我們還需要考慮其他什麼？

I think it's primarily driven by the baby category -- because that's our -- 70% of our China import exposure is the baby gear category. The balance of what's coming from China to the US, we've had a plan in place that we've been working on for a number of years, as I mentioned, to move out of China. We are accelerating that plan as we speak.

我認為這主要是由嬰兒用品類別推動的——因為我們在中國的進口量有 70% 是嬰兒用品類別。對於從中國到美國的平衡出口，正如我所提到的，我們已經制定了一個計劃，並且已經為之努力了很多年，以將其從中國轉移出去。我們正在加速實施該計劃。

And so there could be a small amount of impact and a few other places, but the majority of the impact is the baby gear category. By the way, the baby gear category, I think what Mark Erceg said or what we said was that at this point, we've got a plan to mitigate at least half of the $0.20 impact. It could be better than that. I mean, because we're not alone in this, the majority of the stroller market today is in the super premium and premium category.

因此，可能會對其他一些地方產生少量影響，但主要影響是嬰兒用品類別。順便說一下，關於嬰兒用品類別，我認為馬克·埃爾塞格說過或我們說過的是，目前我們已經有一個計劃來減輕至少一半的 0.20 美元影響。情況可能會更好。我的意思是，因為我們並不是唯一這樣做的人，所以當今嬰兒車市場的大多數產品都屬於超高端和高端類別。

Those brands are all affected by this as well. And Graco being positioned at the high end of mass could wind up being a beneficiary as prices in the market move up, not just for us, but for everybody, depending on how this tariff sustains. So -- that's the primary impact.

這些品牌也都受到了影響。隨著市場價格上漲，定位高端的 Graco 最終可能會成為受益者，這不僅對我們有利，對所有人都有利，這取決於該關稅如何維持。所以——這是主要影響。

The other piece of the puzzle is, look, we said it's $0.20, assuming that 125 China tariffs stay in force for the full calendar year. We said, as we sit here today, we found ways that we think we can offset half of it, roughly. Well, we still have eight months to go. And the last thing we're going to do is sit on our hands, right?

另一個難題是，你看，我們說它是 0.20 美元，假設 125 項中國關稅在整個日曆年內有效。我們說，今天我們坐在這裡，我們找到了我們認為可以大致抵消一半的方法。嗯，我們還有八個月的時間。我們最不該做的事就是袖手旁觀，對吧？

So the full intention is to continually chew against that. And we're optimistic that with the team we have in place and the lines that we have in the water to bring in incremental sales, we can continue to make headway.

因此，我們的完整意圖就是不斷地咀嚼這一點。我們樂觀地認為，憑藉我們現有的團隊和為增加銷售額而做好的準備，我們可以繼續取得進展。

Yeah, I appreciate the transparency there. Secondly, Chris, you just alluded to this a little while ago, but your markets, especially the small kitchen appliances still have some pretty significant China stores, many are 100%, as you said. If triple-digit tariffs remain in place in China, wouldn't this result in material consolidation with smaller players effectively dropping out of the market and effectively widen your competitive moat?

是的，我很欣賞那裡的透明度。其次，克里斯，你剛才提到了這一點，但你們的市場，特別是小型廚房電器市場，仍然有一些相當重要的中國商店，很多都是 100%，正如你所說。如果中國繼續實行三位數的關稅，這是否會導致實質整合，小型企業實際上會退出市場並有效擴大您的競爭壁壘？

Yeah, No question about it, and that's -- we think we've got that opportunity in a number of product categories. I think I mentioned there's 19 product categories that we think we are competitively advantaged. And we do think that there are going to be some competitors that basically drop out that's going to allow for a market share gains for us in some of these categories. It's -- as I mentioned on the prepared remark, the two places where we're seeing already wins are in vacuum sealing with the FoodSaver brand and in the Rubbermaid food storage business.

是的，毫無疑問，我們認為我們在許多產品類別中都有這樣的機會。我想我提到過，我們認為我們有 19 個產品類別具有競爭優勢。我們確實認為，一些競爭對手基本上會退出，這將使我們在某些​​類別中獲得市場份額的成長。正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣，我們已經看到成功的兩個領域是 FoodSaver 品牌的真空密封和 Rubbermaid 食品儲存業務。

But we've -- as Mark Erceg said, got a lot of lines out in the water right now. And I think we're in active discussions with retailers on shifting their shelf space and shifting their merchandising to our brands that are made in the US.

但正如馬克·埃爾塞格所說，我們現在已經把很多線放到水中了。我認為我們正在與零售商積極討論轉移他們的貨架空間和商品銷售到我們在美國製造的品牌。

I mean if you could -- if we could wave a wand and either make the Chinese 125 tariffs go away or be guaranteed they would be in place for the full calendar year, we would take the latter. -- based on our positioning in market and based on our strong domestic manufacturing base and based on what we know about the competitive set.

我的意思是，如果我們可以揮舞魔杖，讓中國的 125 項關稅消失，或者保證這些關稅將在整個日曆年內有效，我們會選擇後者。 ——基於我們的市場定位、基於我們強大的國內製造業基礎以及基於我們對競爭對手的了解。

Now there might be some temporal disruption. But for the mid and long term, we're well positioned to be advantaged by this scenario.

現在可能會出現一些時間上的混亂。但從中期和長期來看，我們處於有利地位，可以從這種情況中獲益。

Very helpful. Thanks, guys. Best of luck.

非常有幫助。謝謝大家。祝你好運。

Filippo Falorni, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni。

Hi, good morning everyone. First, I want to ask you on pricing. Just following up on Bill's question, based on the announced pricing as of today, what are you expecting in terms of price contribution in your core sales guidance? And just roughly like what elasticities are you assuming based on your expected response from competitors?

大家早安。首先，我想問一下價格問題。我只是想回答比爾的問題，根據今天公佈的定價，您對核心銷售指導中的價格貢獻有何預期？那麼根據您對競爭對手的預期反應，您大致假設了什麼樣的彈性？

Right now, based on our sales walk and our build bridges, we would tell you that for the full year, we think pricing net of elasticity will be up 1 point or 2 point.

目前，根據我們的銷售情況和建造的橋樑，我們可以告訴您，就全年而言，我們認為彈性淨定價將上漲 1 點或 2 點。

Nature company number being international.

自然公司編號是國際性的。

Correct.

正確的。

Got it. Got it. Okay. And then just a follow-up on the baby gear category. You mentioned last time in the Trump administration, you were able to get an exemption for those categories or the industry was able to get an exemption for those categories. Is that -- are there conversations currently to ask for an exemption, just any thoughts on potentially getting the exemption again this time?

知道了。知道了。好的。然後我們再來關註一下嬰兒用品類別。您上次提到，在川普政府時期，您可以獲得這些類別的豁免，或者該行業可以獲得這些類別的豁免。目前是否有關於要求豁免的對話，對於這次可能再次獲得豁免有什麼想法嗎？

Yeah. We are actively engaged in lobbying efforts to get an exemption for baby gear products sourced from China. And the Trump administration was the administration that gave the exemptions for baby gear products in the last -- or in the first term when the initial China tariffs went into effect. It's a fluid situation. So I certainly can't predict the outcome of it. But I can say that there are certainly efforts ongoing not just by us at Newell, but also by the industry on this on the lobbying front.

是的。我們正在積極遊說，爭取對來自中國的嬰兒用品進行豁免。川普政府是上一屆政府，也就是中國關稅生效的第一個任期內給予嬰兒用品豁免的政府。情況瞬息萬變。所以我當然無法預測其結果。但我可以說，不僅我們 Newell 公司在進行努力，整個產業也在遊說方面做出努力。

Great. Thank you so much.

偉大的。太感謝了。

Olivia Tong, Raymond James.

奧利維亞唐，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Great thank you so much. mentioned no change in your market share outlook, but if we're able to secure new distribution in food storage. So can you talk through that a little bit in terms of how you're thinking about some of the discussions that you're having in the other 17 categories? That's my first question.

非常好，非常感謝。提到您的市佔率前景沒有變化，但如果我們能夠確保食品儲存的新分銷。那麼，您能否就您對其他 17 個類別中的一些討論的看法稍微談談這一點？這是我的第一個問題。

And then second, did you price in any other categories beyond baby. And then my last question is just around your key industries, what your competition is doing and if there is any excess capacity outside of China or even domestically because as you mentioned, the efficiency improvements you were able to achieve in the US and the blender category, getting to 50% more space. Is there other capacity out there that others are able to capitalize on?

其次，除了嬰兒用品之外，你們還會對其他類別進行定價嗎？我的最後一個問題是關於你們的關鍵產業，你們的競爭對手在做什麼，以及中國以外甚至國內是否存在產能過剩，因為正如你們提到的，你們在美國和攪拌機類別中實現了效率提升，將空間增加了 50%。還有其他能力可供其他人利用嗎？

So let's start with on the pricing. We did take select pricing on some other goods that were sourced from China that we expected to be sourced from China for a long period of time. It was a very small -- so the 20% pricing that we put into effect effective as of tomorrow was, I would say, 90% on baby gear, but there was 10% on some other small businesses that we have that we don't anticipate moving out of China in the near term.

那麼就讓我們從定價開始吧。我們確實對一些其他從中國採購的商品採取了選擇性定價，我們預計這些商品將在很長一段時間內從中國採購。這是一個非常小的規模——所以我們從明天開始實施的 20% 的定價，我想說，其中 90% 是針對嬰兒用品的，但還有 10% 是針對我們擁有的一些其他小企業的，我們預計這些企業短期內不會遷出中國。

But baby gear here for purposes of the financial modeling was the major place where we took the pricing. From a capacity standpoint, we don't think that there is significant excess capacity in the US or Mexican market on the categories where we're advantaged. We think many of our competitors have effectively shut down capacity and move capacity to source finished goods players in Asia in a lot of these categories.

但出於財務建模的目的，嬰兒用品是我們進行定價的主要依據。從產能角度來看，我們認為，在我們具有優勢的類別中，美國或墨西哥市場不存在明顯的產能過剩。我們認為，我們的許多競爭對手已經有效地關閉了這些類別的產能，並將產能轉移到亞洲尋找成品生產商。

And so I mentioned the two categories where we've already secured wins. On the other 17 categories where we're having discussions, this is still relatively new. So recall that it's only been about weeks since the liberation day tariffs have been announced, even though it seems like a long time. And many retailers are still trying to understand the impact of those tariffs.

因此我提到了我們已經獲得勝利的兩個類別。對於我們正在討論的其他 17 個類別，這仍然相對較新。回想一下，雖然感覺時間很長，但距離解放日關稅宣布才過去幾週。許多零售商仍在試圖了解這些關稅的影響。

And how they're going to mitigate them because they affect a lot of different categories, not just that Newell participates in, but that the retailer participates broadly in. And so we are showing up with a proposal and plan for the categories in which we compete in where we're competitively advantaged. As I mentioned, at each of our top 10 retail customers, we've already had initial conversations top to top with all 10 of them.

以及他們將如何減輕這些影響，因為它們影響到許多不同的類別，不僅是 Newell 參與的類別，而且零售商廣泛參與的類別。因此，我們針對我們在競爭中具有優勢的類別提出了提案和計劃。正如我所提到的，對於我們排名前 10 位的零售客戶，我們已經與他們進行了初步的高層對話。

And we're now starting to drive to the next steps, which is to go down and begin to have discussions with merchants. What I can tell you is that many of our retailers have paused or their purchase orders from China in these categories where we're advantaged.

我們現在開始採取下一步行動，即深入到商家並開始進行討論。我可以告訴你們的是，我們的許多零售商已經暫停了來自中國的這些我們有優勢的類別的採購訂單。

So we do believe that there's going to be a supply disruption in the categories where we're competitively advantaged, and that's going to position us, I think, to be able to come in and fill in that incremental inventory level.

因此，我們確實相信，在我們具有競爭優勢的類別中，供應將會中斷，我認為這將使我們有能力填補增量庫存水準。

We have not factored that into our guidance at this point. So that is upside to our guidance on the extra 17 because we don't have commitments at this point. And so that's kind of how we're thinking about it and how we're approaching it. But we are having active discussions as we speak across all of these categories with all of these top retailers.

目前我們還沒有將這一點納入我們的指導中。因此，這對我們對額外 17 個的指導來說是有利的，因為我們目前還沒有承諾。這就是我們對此的思考和處理方式。但我們正在與所有這些頂級零售商就所有這些類別進行積極的討論。

Okay. Thank you all for joining, and we look forward to talking in follow-up conversations.

好的。感謝大家的加入，我們期待在後續的對話中繼續交流。

That's great. Thank you. This does conclude the question-and-answer session. Thank you for your participation. A replay of today's call will be available later today on the company's website at irnewellbrands.com. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

那太棒了。謝謝。問答環節到此結束。感謝您的參與。今天晚些時候，您可以在公司網站 irnewellbrands.com 上觀看本次電話會議的重播。現在您可以斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天。