輝達 (NVDA) 2004 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day everyone and welcome to PortalPlayer Inc. fourth quarter and fiscal 2004 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded and will be available for playback beginning in approximately 2 hours after the end of the conference. To access a replay, please dial 1-719-457-0820, with the passcode 114335. At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I'd like to turn the call over to Christine Moses (ph), Investor Relations for PortalPlayer. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 PortalPlayer Inc. 第四季度和 2004 財年財報電話會議。正在錄製今天的通話，並將在會議結束後大約 2 小時後開始播放。如需觀看重播，請撥打 1-719-457-0820，密碼為 114335。此時，我想將電話轉給 PortalPlayer 投資者關係部的 Christine Moses (ph)。請繼續。

Thank you, and thank you for joining us today. In addition to this call being available by phone replay, it is being webcast live via the investor relations page of PortalPlayer's Web site at www.portalplayer.com. Earlier today, we issued our earnings press release and filed it with the SEC. The press release is also available on PortalPlayer's Web site. That press release contains certain non-GAAP financial measures which we will discuss during today's call, together with the most directly comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP and reconciliations of the differences between these measures.

謝謝你，謝謝你今天加入我們。除了可以通過電話重播獲得本次電話會議外，還可以通過 PortalPlayer 網站 www.portalplayer.com 的投資者關係頁面進行網絡直播。今天早些時候，我們發布了我們的收益新聞稿並提交給了美國證券交易委員會。該新聞稿也可在 PortalPlayer 的網站上獲得。該新聞稿包含我們將在今天的電話會議中討論的某些非公認會計原則財務指標，以及根據公認會計原則計算的最直接可比的財務指標以及這些指標之間差異的對賬。

With me today is Gary Johnson, President and CEO of PortalPlayer and Olav Carlson, PortalPlayer's Chief Financial Officer. I'll begin the call by reading our Safe Harbor statement.

今天和我在一起的是 PortalPlayer 總裁兼首席執行官 Gary Johnson 和 PortalPlayer 首席財務官 Olav Carlson。我將通過閱讀我們的安全港聲明開始通話。

Before we begin our discussions, statements on today's call which are not historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements include but are not limited to statements as to future development efforts, future introduction of products and technology, the growth of the MP3 market, the expected benefits of our products and technology, future financial results, including revenue, net income, expenses, tax rates, cash flow and future R&D spending. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in these forward-looking statements. Please refer to today's earnings release and our prospectus dated November 18, 2004 as filed with the SEC and from time to time in our SEC reports for information on risk factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from those differ materially from those discussed in these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date hereof. PortalPlayer disclaims any intent or obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Additionally, this conference call is the property of PortalPlayer and may not be recorded or rebroadcast without specific written permission from the Company. Now I would like to turn the call over to Gary for his introductory remarks.

在我們開始討論之前，關於今天電話會議的非歷史事實的陳述是《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述包括但不限於關於未來發展努力、產品和技術的未來推出、MP3 市場的增長、我們的產品和技術的預期收益、未來財務結果（包括收入、淨收入）的陳述、費用、稅率、現金流和未來的研發支出。這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中討論的結果大不相同。請參閱今天的收益發布和我們於 2004 年 11 月 18 日提交給 SEC 的招股說明書，以及我們不時在我們的 SEC 報告中的招股說明書，以了解可能導致實際結果與本報告中討論的結果大不相同的風險因素的信息前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述僅在本文發布之日發表。 PortalPlayer 不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的任何意圖或義務。此外，本次電話會議是 PortalPlayer 的財產，未經公司明確書面許可，不得錄製或轉播。現在，我想將電話轉給 Gary 進行介紹性發言。

Thank you and welcome to our first earnings call following our initial public offering. We're very pleased with the financial and business achievements we're reporting for the fourth quarter and year end 2004.

謝謝您，歡迎參加我們首次公開募股後的第一次收益電話會議。我們對我們在 2004 年第四季度和年底報告的財務和業務成就感到非常滿意。

During today's conference call, we will discuss some of the recent highlights, which include growing revenues 75 percent from third quarter 2004 revenues and more than quadrupling our fiscal revenue over last year. We also achieved a critical milestone of profitability both in Q4 and for the full year.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論最近的一些亮點，其中包括收入比 2004 年第三季度的收入增長了 75%，以及我們的財政收入比去年增加了四倍多。我們還在第四季度和全年實現了盈利能力的關鍵里程碑。

In November, we raised more than $113 million from our initial public offering and following the successful launch of our Photo Edition platform in early 2004, we saw this translate into design wins in the second half of the year with a number of leading grams (ph) worldwide.

11 月，我們從首次公開募股中籌集了超過 1.13 億美元，繼 2004 年初成功推出我們的 Photo Edition 平台後，我們看到這轉化為下半年的設計勝利，並獲得了許多領先的克（ph ) 全球。

I also want to acknowledge all our dedicated employees and their families around the world. With their help, the Company has been able to continue to offer its customers innovative products, leading to another record quarter for PortalPlayer. In a few minutes, I will go to more detail about our fourth quarter progress and fiscal 2005 outlook. But first, I will turn the call over to Olav, who will take you through the fourth quarter and year-end financials.

我還要感謝我們在世界各地所有敬業的員工及其家人。在他們的幫助下，公司能夠繼續為其客戶提供創新產品，從而為 PortalPlayer 帶來了另一個創紀錄的季度。幾分鐘後，我將詳細介紹我們第四季度的進展和 2005 財年展望。但首先，我將把電話轉給奧拉夫，他將帶你了解第四季度和年終的財務狀況。

Thank you, Gary. Net revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004 ended December 31 was $44.7 million, the highest quarterly revenue in our history. This is up 75 percent from the $25.6 million in the third quarter of 2004 and more than 5 times the revenue of $8.1 million in the fourth quarter a year ago. Net income for the fourth quarter was $10.5 million, or an income of 50 -- that is 5-0 -- cents per diluted share based on 21.1 million weighted average shares outstanding. The effective tax rate was about 3 percent. This compares with a net income of $3.2 million or 18 cents per diluted share based on 17.4 million weighted average shares outstanding in the third quarter of 2004 and a net loss of $759,000, or a loss of $6.54 per share based on approximately 116,000 weighted average shares outstanding in the same quarter a year ago.

謝謝你，加里。截至 12 月 31 日的 2004 財年第四季度淨收入為 4470 萬美元，是我們歷史上最高的季度收入。這比 2004 年第三季度的 2560 萬美元增長了 75%，是去年第四季度 810 萬美元收入的 5 倍多。第四季度的淨收入為 1,050 萬美元，即基於 2,110 萬股加權平均流通股，每股攤薄收益為 50（即 5-0）美分。實際稅率約為 3%。相比之下，根據 2004 年第三季度 1,740 萬股加權平均流通股，淨收入為 320 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 18 美分，淨虧損為 759,000 美元，或基於約 116,000 股加權平均股，每股虧損 6.54 美元在一年前的同一季度表現出色。

Excluding non-cash stock compensation charges of $755,000, non-GAAP net income for the fourth quarter of 2004 was $11.2 million, or 53 cents per diluted share. Non-GAAP net income for the third quarter of 2004 was $4.6 million, or 26 cents per diluted share and non-GAAP net loss in the fourth quarter of 2003 was $640,000, or loss of $5.51 per share. In our earnings release, we provided the detailed reconciliation between GAAP numbers and non-GAAP numbers which details the stock compensation charges.

不計 755,000 美元的非現金股票補償費用，2004 年第四季度的非公認會計原則淨收入為 1120 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 53 美分。 2004 年第三季度非美國通用會計準則淨收入為 460 萬美元，或攤薄後每股收益 26 美分，2003 年第四季度非美國通用會計準則淨虧損為 640,000 美元，或每股虧損 5.51 美元。在我們的收益發布中，我們提供了 GAAP 數字和非 GAAP 數字之間的詳細核對，其中詳細說明了股票補償費用。

Now let me discuss our information on this quarter's P&L and then I will move onto the balance sheet. Our gross margin for the fourth quarter was 43.4 percent for a gross profit of $19.4 million. Operating expenses for R&D and SG&A were $8.1 million in the fourth quarter, an increase of approximately $2.2 million over the previous quarter.

現在讓我討論一下我們關於本季度損益表的信息，然後我將進入資產負債表。我們第四季度的毛利率為 43.4%，毛利潤為 1940 萬美元。第四季度研發和 SG&A 的運營費用為 810 萬美元，比上一季度增加了約 220 萬美元。

Let me break this down for you. The majority of the additional spending, $1.4 million, was allocated to our R&D activities. We spent a total of $5.3 million in R&D this quarter, which is about 12 percent of our revenue. The sequential increase was primarily due to an increase in headcount and our e-type (ph) expenses. For the first quarter of 2005, we expect R&D to be at about $6.9 million as we continue to invest in our core technologies of semiconductors, firmware and software.

讓我為你分解一下。大部分額外支出（140 萬美元）用於我們的研發活動。本季度我們在研發上總共花費了 530 萬美元，約占我們收入的 12%。環比增長主要是由於員工人數增加和我們的電子類 (ph) 費用增加。 2005 年第一季度，我們預計研發費用約為 690 萬美元，因為我們將繼續投資於我們的半導體、固件和軟件核心技術。

SG&A expenses in the fourth quarter were $2.8 million, or about 6 percent of our revenue, which is an $800,000 increase from the previous quarter. The increase was mainly due to higher spending for some marketing activities and the costs associated with now operating as a public company. For the first quarter of 2005, we expect SG&A to remain relatively flat at about $2.7 million. We expect our non-cash stock compensation charges to be approximately $400,000 in the first quarter of fiscal 2005. However, the stock compensation charge will also include a small variable element based on our ending stock price, and therefore the exact amount is hard to predict.

第四季度的 SG&A 費用為 280 萬美元，約占我們收入的 6%，比上一季度增加了 80 萬美元。這一增長主要是由於一些營銷活動的支出增加以及與現在作為上市公司運營相關的成本。對於 2005 年第一季度，我們預計 SG&A 將保持相對平穩，約為 270 萬美元。我們預計 2005 財年第一季度的非現金股票補償費用約為 400,000 美元。然而，股票補償費用還將包括一個基於我們的期末股票價格的小變量，因此很難預測確切的金額.

Touching briefly on the fiscal 2004 results, net revenue for fiscal 2004 was $92.6 million, more than 4 times the $20.9 million in revenue for fiscal 2003. Net income for fiscal 2004 was $10.4 million, or an income of 57 cents per diluted share based on 18.1 million weighted average shares outstanding. This compares with a net loss of $8 million, or a loss of more than $124 per share based on about 65,000 weighted average shares outstanding in 2003.

簡單談一下 2004 財年的業績，2004 財年的淨收入為 9260 萬美元，是 2003 財年收入 2090 萬美元的 4 倍多。2004 財年的淨收入為 1040 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 57 美分1810萬股加權平均流通股。相比之下，淨虧損為 800 萬美元，或者根據 2003 年約 65,000 股加權平均流通股計算，每股虧損超過 124 美元。

Non-GAAP net income for fiscal 2004 was $16.2 million, or 89 cents per diluted share compared with a non-GAAP net loss of $7.6 million, or a loss of about $117 per share in fiscal 2003. Both the results for the fourth quarter and for the year have benefited from our tax net operating loss carryforward that offset most of our taxable income in the year. For federal tax purposes, we're carrying approximately $6 million of freely available NOL forward into 2005, and taking this into consideration, we expect to use a 25 percent effective tax rate in the first quarter of the year.

2004 財年非 GAAP 淨收入為 1620 萬美元，或稀釋後每股收益 89 美分，而 2003 財年非 GAAP 淨虧損為 760 萬美元，或每股虧損約 117 美元。全年受益於我們的稅收淨營業虧損結轉，抵消了我們當年的大部分應稅收入。出於聯邦稅收的目的，我們將大約 600 萬美元的可免費獲得的 NOL 提前到 2005 年，考慮到這一點，我們預計在今年第一季度使用 25% 的有效稅率。

Now turning to the balance sheet. In the fourth quarter, we successfully completed our initial public offering of about 7.2 million of shares of common stock, which included more than 900,000 shares the underwriters purchased when they exercise their full overallotment option. Net proceeds to the Company before expenses and including the overallotment were $113.6 million. With part of the proceeds, we repaid all of our outstanding balances under our bank borrowings, at the time $2.3 million, and are now debt-free. Our accounts receivable were 20.1 million with an average DSO of about 41 days and our inventory balance at December 31 was at $1.8 million, all fit finished goods. Deferred income, which represents the margin on those shipments that we defer in accordance with our revenue recognition policy, was at $4 million at the end of the fourth quarter. Headcount at the end of the quarter was 181. We added 25 employees during the fourth quarter, 90 percent of which were in engineering functions and 10 percent in other SG&A functions. And at the end of the quarter, more than 3 quarters of our overall headcount was focused on our current or strategic R&D activities. And again, half of our overall headcount was based on our location in (indiscernible) in India. And with that at this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Gary for his comments.

現在轉向資產負債表。在第四季度，我們成功完成了約 720 萬股普通股的首次公開發行，其中包括承銷商在行使其全部超額配售權時購買的超過 900,000 股股票。扣除費用（包括超額分配）後，公司的淨收益為 1.136 億美元。我們用部分收益償還了銀行借款項下的所有未償餘額，當時為 230 萬美元，現在沒有債務。我們的應收賬款為 2010 萬，平均 DSO 約為 41 天，我們在 12 月 31 日的庫存餘額為 180 萬美元，全部適合成品。遞延收入，代表我們根據我們的收入確認政策遞延的那些出貨量的利潤，在第四季度末為 400 萬美元。本季度末的員工人數為 181 人。我們在第四季度增加了 25 名員工，其中 90% 從事工程職能，10% 從事其他 SG&A 職能。在本季度末，我們總人數中有超過 3 個季度專注於我們當前或戰略性的研發活動。再一次，我們總人數的一半是基於我們在印度（聽不清）的位置。在這個時候，我想把電話轉回給加里徵求他的意見。

Thank you, Olav. As you can see from the financials, the fourth quarter was a great ending to a great year. On the operations side, our dedication to providing innovative platforms has resulted in increased customer adoption during fiscal 2004. We're very proud to say that our fourth-generation platform, the Photo Edition, has recently resulted in innovative new products from Apple Computer, Gateway, Reigncom -- also known as iRiver -- Samsung and Tatung.

謝謝你，奧拉夫。正如您從財務數據中看到的那樣，第四季度是一個偉大一年的完美收官。在運營方面，我們致力於提供創新平台，從而在 2004 財年增加了客戶的採用率。我們非常自豪地說，我們的第四代平台 Photo Edition 最近為 Apple Computer 帶來了創新的新產品， Gateway、Reigncom——也稱為iRiver——三星和大同。

In addition, during 2004, our Audio Edition platform was used in products by iGo, one of the largest MP3 suppliers in China; Iowa/Stoney (ph), Apple Computer, Bang and Olufsen, BenQ, Median -- a leading German brand -- Mitac, Olympus, Philips, RCA, Rio, Rock Digital -- which is selling in Macy's and CompUSA -- Roland, Samsung, and Virgin Electronics. Our customer strategy is to focus our efforts on winning designs on most companies that we believe are brand leaders worldwide, those that have the marketing clout and shelf space to enable their products to potentially ramp to significant volumes. The combination of our robust system-on-chip solution, innovative firmware and software and flexible development kit has proven to be good fit for these customers who want to design leading edge differentiated products in this fast-growing market.

此外，2004年，我們的Audio Edition平台被中國最大的MP3供應商之一iGo用於產品中； Iowa/Stoney (ph)、Apple Computer、Bang and Olufsen、BenQ、Median——德國領先品牌——Mitac、Olympus、Philips、RCA、Rio、Rock Digital——在梅西百貨和 CompUSA 銷售——Roland，三星和維珍電子。我們的客戶策略是將我們的努力集中在贏得我們認為是全球品牌領導者的大多數公司的設計上，這些公司擁有營銷影響力和貨架空間，使他們的產品有可能大幅增加銷量。事實證明，我們強大的片上系統解決方案、創新的固件和軟件以及靈活的開發套件相結合，非常適合希望在這個快速增長的市場中設計領先差異化產品的客戶。

For example, iRiver, a Korean-based leader in the MP3 market, recently introduced the H10 MP3 Jukebox based on our platform. The H10 has 5 gigabyte, 1-inch hard drive with a color screen and detachable battery and an FM radio in space (ph) on our Photo Edition platform. The product has been receiving very favorable product reviews and was showcased by Bill Gates in his keynote at the consumer electronics show earlier this month in Las Vegas.

例如，韓國 MP3 市場的領導者 iRiver 最近推出了基於我們平台的 H10 MP3 Jukebox。 H10 在我們的 Photo Edition 平台上具有 5 GB 的 1 英寸硬盤驅動器、彩色屏幕和可拆卸電池以及空間 (ph) 調頻收音機。該產品一直受到好評，比爾蓋茨在本月早些時候在拉斯維加斯舉行的消費電子展上發表了主題演講。

Another example is the recently introduced 5 gigabyte MR 100 M-Rove (ph) MP3 player by Olympus. The device is a sleek, stylish new MP3 player with a beautiful user interface and boasts some unique features, such as the ability to view song lyrics on the display. Olympus is the leading developer of award-winning products for consumer and professional markets alike and we're delighted to have them as a new customer.

另一個例子是奧林巴斯最近推出的 5 GB MR 100 M-Rove (ph) MP3 播放器。該設備是一款時尚、時尚的新型 MP3 播放器，具有漂亮的用戶界面，並擁有一些獨特的功能，例如能夠在顯示屏上查看歌詞。奧林巴斯是面向消費者和專業市場的獲獎產品的領先開發商，我們很高興他們成為新客戶。

In 2005, we intend to continue our focus on product development efforts on the feature-rich segments of the personal media player market, as well as launch a new platform generation that will enable our customers to continue to offer innovative industry-leading products. We have had significant ongoing initiatives in the area of power management and connectivity. We plan to detail in future calls when we're at liberty to discuss them.

2005 年，我們打算繼續專注於個人媒體播放器市場功能豐富的細分市場的產品開發工作，並推出新一代平台，使我們的客戶能夠繼續提供創新的行業領先產品。我們在電源管理和連接領域已經採取了重要的持續舉措。當我們可以自由討論它們時，我們計劃在未來的電話會議中詳細說明。

We believe fiscal 2005 will be a significant growth year for both the Flash and hard drive MP3 markets as demand continues to be strong in both segments. On the supply side, we believe the addition of capacity from the HTD vendors will ramp throughout the year to support strong year-over-year growth. Given this, we believe that fiscal 2005 will not be as seasonal as the traditional consumer electronics historical trend.

我們相信 2005 財年對於閃存和硬盤 MP3 市場來說將是一個顯著增長的一年，因為這兩個領域的需求持續強勁。在供應方面，我們認為 HTD 供應商的產能增加將全年增加，以支持強勁的同比增長。鑑於此，我們認為2005財年不會像傳統消費電子的歷史趨勢那樣具有季節性。

This, coupled with the fact that we're coming up a strong fourth quarter revenue base, leads us to guide first-quarter revenues to be down only 10 to 20 percent sequentially. We expect GAAP net income per diluted share to be between 16 and 19 cents, based on approximately 26 million weighted average shares outstanding. The effective tax rate for the first quarter is expected to be 25 percent, which takes into consideration, among other factors, the Company's net operating loss carryforwards for income tax purposes. Non-GAAP net income per diluted share would exclude approximately 400,000 shares of stock-based compensation charges, is expected to be between 18 and 21 cents. We expect operating expenses to increase to approximately $9.6 million. The majority of this increase is due to R&D spending to develop new platforms. We also expect to continue to generate positive operating cash flow.

再加上我們將在第四季度實現強勁的收入基礎，我們將指導第一季度的收入環比僅下降 10% 到 20%。基於大約 2600 萬股加權平均流通股，我們預計 GAAP 每股攤薄淨收益在 16 至 19 美分之間。第一季度的有效稅率預計為 25%，其中考慮到公司為所得稅目的結轉的淨營業虧損等因素。 Non-GAAP 每股攤薄淨收入將不包括大約 400,000 股基於股票的補償費用，預計在 18 至 21 美分之間。我們預計運營費用將增加到約 960 萬美元。這種增長的大部分是由於開發新平台的研發支出。我們還預計將繼續產生正的經營現金流。

In summary, we're very pleased with our fourth quarter fiscal 2004 results and we're excited about our position going forward into 2005. Operator, we're now ready for questions.

總而言之，我們對 2004 財年第四季度的業績感到非常滿意，並且對我們在 2005 年的情況感到興奮。接線員，我們現在準備好回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions). Randy Abrams, CS First Boston.

（操作員說明）。蘭迪艾布拉姆斯，CS First Boston。

I wanted to start off, if you could talk about in fourth quarter what the magnitude of revenue growth at your largest customer was versus other customers? And implied in first quarter, do you expect concentration to I guess diversify?

我想開始，如果你能在第四季度談談你最大客戶的收入增長幅度與其他客戶相比有多大？並暗示在第一季度，您是否預計集中度會分散？

I don't think I can be too specific there in the answer, but I think what I can tell is you in the third quarter, as we noted in our prospectus, it was like 92.5 percent revenue concentrated with our most important customer. And that for the fourth quarter, I'm ready to say that this was below 90 percent; it was in the high 80's.

我認為我的答案不能太具體，但我認為我能告訴你的是第三季度，正如我們在招股說明書中指出的那樣，92.5% 的收入集中在我們最重要的客戶身上。對於第四季度，我可以說低於 90%；那是上世紀 80 年代。

And could you talk about how inventory levels look at your customers for your chip sets? And maybe if you look out over the next couple of quarters, do you expect to track pretty close with your customers, or could we have some workdown or build of inventory?

您能否談談您的芯片組的庫存水平如何看待您的客戶？也許如果您展望接下來的幾個季度，您是否希望與您的客戶保持密切聯繫，或者我們是否可以進行一些工作或建立庫存？

Well, I think I want to start answering in the following way, that we're always happy to give certain information on PortalPlayer's goal to progress each quarter. But I think you are aware that we do not intend to respond to questions specific to any one customer. In general terms with any customer, in the consumer electronics space, it is not as easy to track directly -- the track between supplier and customer is not always a direct tracking. There is buffer inventory in between. We only had visibility to a part of the supply chain, because usually, OEMs working with ODMs. We don't have visibility to that part of the supply chain, so it's not a direct track.

好吧，我想我想以以下方式開始回答，我們總是很樂意提供有關 PortalPlayer 每個季度取得進展的目標的某些信息。但我想你知道我們不打算回答任何一位客戶的具體問題。對於任何客戶而言，在消費電子領域，直接跟踪並不容易——供應商和客戶之間的跟踪並不總是直接跟踪。中間有緩衝庫存。我們只能看到供應鏈的一部分，因為通常 OEM 與 ODM 合作。我們對供應鏈的那部分沒有可見性，所以它不是直接跟踪。

Okay. And just shifting over to gross margins, it look like it cam in a little bit better this quarter. What is your outlook going over for the next couple of quarters? Should we still stay with the same target model, or are there any swing factors, plus or minus?

好的。只是轉向毛利率，本季度看起來它會好一些。您對接下來幾個季度的前景如何？我們是否應該仍然使用相同的目標模型，還是有任何波動因素，正負？

I think we're very satisfied with our current target model of 41 to 44 percent.

我認為我們對當前 41% 到 44% 的目標模型非常滿意。

Okay. What was the factor that drove it to be a little bit better this past quarter? Was it just volume, that we got the better volumes?

好的。是什麼因素促使它在上個季度變得更好一些？僅僅是音量，我們得到了更好的音量嗎？

It's good volume, it's good negotiations on our side, on the supply-side. There is a minimal impact from sales of inventory that was previously written off. It's the lower percent of impact. And I think that is the mix for this answer.

它的數量很好，在我們這邊，在供應方面，這是很好的談判。以前註銷的庫存銷售的影響很小。這是較低的影響百分比。我認為這就是這個答案的混合體。

Final question. I know your strategy has been to go after the leading brands. Could you talk about now that you have a little bit more resources, is there any shift, at least in your mode, as to go after say some of the ODMs or new OEMs, or is it still not very profitable to chase after some of that business?

最後一個問題。我知道你的策略是追逐領先品牌。你現在能談談你有更多的資源嗎，至少在你的模式上是否有任何轉變，比如去追求一些 ODM 或新的 OEM，或者追逐一些仍然不是很有利可圖那個生意？

Our (indiscernible) strategy won't shift. The actual additional resources we talk about is really for us to accelerate development on new platforms. As you know in this market, Randy, there's lots of new feature sets that the customers are demanding in this space. So we think the strategy of focusing on the global brands or the channel that can reach global brands will have served us well, and we intend to stay that path. Our investment is focusing on really serving those major global brands with great product platforms. So, no, no shift in customer focus at the present time.

我們的（聽不清）戰略不會改變。我們談論的實際附加資源實際上是為了我們加速新平台上的開發。正如您在這個市場上所知道的那樣，Randy，有很多客戶在這個領域需要的新功能集。因此，我們認為專注於全球品牌的戰略或可以接觸全球品牌的渠道對我們有好處，我們打算保持這條道路。我們的投資重點是真正為那些擁有出色產品平台的全球主要品牌提供服務。所以，不，目前沒有客戶關注點的轉變。

Thanks a lot, guys.

非常感謝，伙計們。

Quinn Bolton, Needham & Co.

Quinn Bolton, Needham & Co.

Good afternoon, guys, great quarter. First question, Olav, don't know if you can give us any detail on how units and ASPs trended through the quarter, but any insight you could give would be helpful?

下午好，伙計們，很棒的季度。第一個問題，Olav，不知道您能否向我們提供有關本季度單位和 ASP 趨勢的任何詳細信息，但您能提供的任何見解都會有所幫助嗎？

No, I cannot give you any inside point on those. Policy is not to comment on ASPs and not to comment on units. Sorry about that.

不，我不能給你任何關於這些的內幕消息。政策是不對 ASP 發表評論，也不對單位發表評論。對於那個很抱歉。

Not even qualitatively up or down? Obviously, units were up.

甚至沒有質量上升或下降？顯然，單位上升了。

Qualitatively, units were up, quantitatively, and then no comment on ASP.

定性上，單位上漲，數量上，然後沒有評論平均售價。

Okay. Can you give us some sense -- is there one quarter -- do you guys check annual price contracts. Is there one quarter where we may see a bigger change in pricing quarter-over-quarter, or do you tend to see a pretty linear change in the contract you signed with the big customers?

好的。你能給我們一些感覺嗎 - 有四分之一 - 你們檢查年度價格合同嗎？有沒有一個季度，我們可能會看到價格環比變化較大，或者您是否傾向於看到您與大客戶簽訂的合同出現相當線性的變化？

Frankly, I couldn't give you guidance to either of those. The discussion with large customers, it varies tremendously from customer to customer. And so I really couldn't give you guidance to the frequency or the timing of that. It really is depending on the customer at different times of the year. But not -- most customers do not directly link into a calendar year type of discussion, more on an ongoing project volume type of basis, design win type of basis. So I'm sorry, it is somewhat random. Actually, it will appear somewhat random through the year to an outsider.

坦率地說，我無法給你任何指導。與大客戶的討論，因客戶而異。所以我真的不能給你指導頻率或時間。這實際上取決於一年中不同時間的客戶。但不是——大多數客戶不直接鏈接到日曆年類型的討論，更多的是基於正在進行的項目量類型、設計獲勝類型的基礎。所以很抱歉，這有點隨機。實際上，對於局外人來說，全年都會顯得有些隨機。

Okay, but no one quarter where you may see a major reset in pricing, is I guess what I was just trying to drive at. And it doesn't sound like that's the case.

好的，但沒有一個季度你可能會看到定價方面的重大調整，我猜我只是想推動什麼。聽起來情況並非如此。

That generally is not the case. Now having said that, I cannot predict maybe there is an alignment at some point where this happens to be that way, but we have no particular insight into that and that's not generally the way it works out.

通常情況並非如此。話雖如此，我無法預測可能會在某個時候發生這種情況，但我們對此並沒有特別的洞察力，而且通常情況並非如此。

Okay. Second question on the gross margin. I just got back from Asia and it sounds like wafer pricing at the major foundries may be down as much as 10 to 20 percent in the first quarter. Wondering if you're seeing that kind of wafer cost decreases through e-Silicon (ph) and LSI Logic and whether that might bode well for gross margins to be at the higher end of the range in the first quarter?

好的。第二個關於毛利率的問題。我剛從亞洲回來，聽起來主要代工廠的晶圓價格在第一季度可能會下降 10% 到 20%。想知道您是否看到通過 e-Silicon (ph) 和 LSI Logic 降低了這種晶圓成本，以及這是否預示著第一季度的毛利率處於該範圍的高端？

We're not going to give you our forward-looking views on our costs either, unfortunately. The semiconductor wafer market is variable. You get the various trends as you indicated, and some of them impact us in a timely matter manner and some don't. So I can't give you direct guidance on a forward-looking basis there. But if there are movements, of course, we take benefit of those. Like you, we similarly track the trends in those costs. But in terms of guidance, unfortunately, I cannot give you any specifics.

不幸的是，我們也不會向您提供我們對成本的前瞻性看法。半導體晶圓市場是多變的。正如您所指出的，您會得到各種趨勢，其中一些會及時影響我們，而另一些則不會。因此，我無法在前瞻性的基礎上為您提供直接指導。但是，如果有運動，當然，我們會從中受益。像您一樣，我們同樣跟踪這些成本的趨勢。但在指導方面，不幸的是，我不能給你任何細節。

Okay. Next question -- can you give us an update or how you are tracking with the new products? Are you still on schedule?

好的。下一個問題——你能給我們一個更新或者你是如何跟踪新產品的嗎？你還在按計劃嗎？

As we have not announced publicly what that schedule is, the good news is publicly, we are not off schedules. What I will say is that our platforms typically get refreshed on a sort of 12 to 18 month cycle and our Photo Edition platform was launched just over 12 months ago. So keep posted.

由於我們尚未公開宣布該時間表是什麼，好消息是公開的，我們並沒有偏離時間表。我要說的是，我們的平台通常會在 12 到 18 個月的周期內更新，而我們的 Photo Edition 平台是在 12 個月前推出的。所以保持發布。

And last, just a clarification, Gary, on your comments about iGo. Did you say that that was a Flash Player win, or is that a hard drive player win?

最後，Gary，請澄清一下您對 iGo 的評論。你說那是 Flash Player 的勝利，還是硬盤播放器的勝利？

I described it as a use of our audio platform. And typically as you know, our business today is centric around the hard drive business, and that in that case, is a 20-gig hard drive product.

我將其描述為使用我們的音頻平台。如您所知，我們今天的業務通常以硬盤業務為中心，在這種情況下，就是 20 gig 硬盤產品。

Okay. Can you say whether you have any wins to date, any announced product in a Flash-based player?

好的。你能說一下你迄今為止是否有任何勝利，任何基於 Flash 的播放器中的已發布產品？

We will make announcements as they become appropriate and they are aligned with our customers' announcements as well.

我們將在適當的時候發佈公告，並且這些公告也與我們客戶的公告保持一致。

Great, thanks, guys.

太好了，謝謝各位。

Shawn Slayton, SG Cowen.

肖恩·斯雷頓，SG Cowen。

Nice quarter you're posting here. It seems as if the R&D expectations for the current quarter may have some non-recurring components there. How should we look at R&D on an absolute basis after the first quarter? Are there mass set expenses in Q1 that we won't see in Q2? And also kind of related to that, can you speak to the strategy of how you're going to grow headcount, in what areas, maybe more towards the silicon side, or more towards the software side? Thanks.

你在這裡發布的好季度。似乎對本季度的研發預期可能包含一些非經常性組件。一季度後，我們應該如何看待研發的絕對基礎？第一季度是否有我們在第二季度看不到的大規模固定費用？還有一點與此相關，您能否談談您將如何增加員工人數的戰略，在哪些領域，可能更傾向於芯片方面，或者更傾向於軟件方面？謝謝。

Maybe let me start with the latter part of the question. The plan to increase headcount is absolutely heavily balanced towards R&D. We have given guidance -- I've given guidance to staying flat on SG&A in Q1 over Q4. And it's not my policy actually to make forward-looking statements besides what is in our earnings release, so I'm not going to comment on Q2. But I think in general, how you want a look at our company, it's heavily R&D balanced. So we have, what I said, like -- more than three-quarters of our employees are engaged right now in strategic or current R&D activities. And that's how you should look at this company, in terms of growth and focus.

也許讓我從問題的後半部分開始。增加員工人數的計劃與研發完全平衡。我們已經給出了指導——我已經給出了在第一季度與第四季度保持平穩的 SG&A 的指導。除了我們的收益發布之外，我的政策實際上並不是做出前瞻性陳述，所以我不打算對第二季度發表評論。但我認為總的來說，你想看看我們的公司，它的研發非常平衡。因此，正如我所說，我們有超過四分之三的員工現在從事戰略或當前的研發活動。這就是你應該如何看待這家公司的增長和重點。

I'll add, in terms of, give you some sense of focus. As you know, this company's built around a platform, as you know, which means that we invest both on the semiconductor firmware and software. So unlike probably many of our competitors, we do put significant effort on the firmware and software side. So overall, if you look to us as a company, we believe that is a significant investment and it has served us very well and we will continue to have a sort of balanced R&D effort across all of those three areas.

我會補充一點，給你一些專注感。如您所知，這家公司是圍繞一個平台構建的，這意味著我們在半導體固件和軟件上都進行了投資。因此，可能與我們的許多競爭對手不同，我們確實在固件和軟件方面投入了大量精力。因此，總體而言，如果您將我們視為一家公司，我們認為這是一項重大投資，它為我們提供了很好的服務，我們將繼續在所有這三個領域進行某種平衡的研發工作。

Gary, I want to revisit the pricing discussion a little bit. If you don't want to talk in absolute terms, what are your expectations? Obviously, you're selling more than just silicon. What are your expectations for pricing trends for your offerings over the next several quarters? And maybe you can put that in the context of some of your peer companies and competitive offerings? Maybe help us understand this industry little bit. It's somewhat of a new industry, but if you could provide some context there, that would be great.

加里，我想重新討論一下定價討論。如果你不想說絕對的話，你的期望是什麼？顯然，您銷售的不僅僅是矽。您對未來幾個季度的產品定價趨勢有何期望？也許你可以把它放在你的一些同行公司和競爭產品的背景下？或許能幫助我們稍微了解一下這個行業。這在某種程度上是一個新行業，但如果你能在那裡提供一些背景信息，那就太好了。

Yes. The way that we generally look at this industry, as you said, it is a sub-segment of the consumer electronics space. So we have seen dramatic volume growth and continued improvements in integration and performance feature-add. Having said that, typically you should expect, and the way we look at that is on an individual SKU, you may see price declines on an annual basis of maybe 20 to 25 percent. And of course, it depends on SKU by SKU, but this is just to give you a sense of the market in general. And then overall on a blended ASP, i.e., when we introduce new products, we're generally able to sort of reset the pricing generally not back to the same point, but we're generally able to reset pricing because of the added value. And so overall, when you look at our portfolio, we believe that a blended ASP decline you should look at for the year, if you saw the 10 to 15 percent number, we think that is consistent with this type of growth in a consumer electronics market. So 20 to 25 percent on individual SKU. Then when you introduce new products and new features, you end up on a portfolio of around 10 to 15 percent.

是的。正如您所說，我們通常看待這個行業的方式，它是消費電子領域的一個子領域。因此，我們看到了顯著的銷量增長以及集成和性能特性添加的持續改進。話雖如此，通常您應該期望，並且我們看待單個 SKU 的方式，您可能會看到價格每年下降 20% 到 25%。當然，這取決於 SKU by SKU，但這只是為了讓您大致了解市場。然後總體而言，在混合 ASP 上，即當我們推出新產品時，我們通常能夠將定價重置為一般不會回到同一點，但由於附加值，我們通常能夠重置定價。因此，總體而言，當您查看我們的產品組合時，我們認為您應該關註今年的綜合 ASP 下降，如果您看到 10% 到 15% 的數字，我們認為這與消費電子產品的這種增長是一致的市場。因此，單個 SKU 的 20% 到 25%。然後，當您推出新產品和新功能時，您最終會獲得大約 10% 到 15% 的投資組合。

Okay, that's helpful. And then I guess in that context, can you just give us your view of the competitive landscape right now? Maybe are you seeing any new competitors over the last quarter or two and maybe talk about some of the new players maybe in Asia? Thanks.

好的，這很有幫助。然後我想在這種情況下，你能告訴我們你現在對競爭格局的看法嗎？也許你在過去一兩個季度看到任何新的競爭對手，或者談論亞洲的一些新玩家？謝謝。

From a competition point of view, the landscape is not changing dramatically here. We're garnishing off more than our fair share of the hard drive wins across the entire market. So that space is staying fairly consistent with the players in the market. I think what will be interesting as we go through 2005 and the way we look at the market is an interesting (indiscernible) will be as the Flash capacity starts to get into the ranges of our gigabytes, for the first time, that market starts to look attractive for us. And so that market plays to our strength of a very powerful chipset, powerful file and media management. So as we look at that market, that will introduce a new set of competitors and a new set of players. And that, again, I've indicated, we're looking at with quite healthy interest.

從競爭的角度來看，這裡的格局並沒有發生巨大變化。我們在整個市場上贏得的硬盤份額超過了我們應得的份額。因此，該空間與市場上的參與者保持相當一致。我認為 2005 年會很有趣，我們看待市場的方式也很有趣（聽不清），因為閃存容量開始進入我們的千兆字節範圍，這個市場第一次開始看起來對我們很有吸引力。因此，這個市場發揮了我們非常強大的芯片組、強大的文件和媒體管理的優勢。因此，當我們審視這個市場時，這將引入一組新的競爭對手和一組新的參與者。而且，我再次指出，我們正在以相當健康的興趣進行研究。

One last question. Gary, in the context of PortalPlayer, what things should we be paying attention to with regard to portable compressed audio, digital rights management? What factors in DRM influence PortalPlayer, and what do you guys care about, and what trends are you looking for in portable compressed DRM? Thanks.

最後一個問題。 Gary，在 PortalPlayer 的背景下，關於便攜式壓縮音頻、數字版權管理，我們應該注意哪些事項？ DRM 中的哪些因素會影響 PortalPlayer，你們關心什麼，以及您在便攜式壓縮 DRM 中尋找哪些趨勢？謝謝。

From a compression standard point of view, there continue to be some innovations there. But essentially, the key underlying standard is MPEG 3 or ASC. It really produces a very solid rock bed. The DRMs themselves are getting well proven and stable. I think the interesting thing to watch in this market is will the way people buy music change over the next few years. Will a subscription model start to become more popular than the purchase model? And frankly, I'm not sure we know the answers to that. And the way that we're building our platform is to be able to support both those type of markets. But a subscription model where the device stores thousands and thousands of songs and you have a monthly fee versus the model today where you may be purchasing individuals songs, that we're frankly watching with significant interest. And we make sure that we have the right platforms and software applications to be able to serve that. So that would be probably the trend that we're looking at with interest, and I would suggest the market hasn't yet resolved either.

從壓縮標準的角度來看，那裡繼續有一些創新。但本質上，關鍵的基礎標準是 MPEG 3 或 ASC。它確實產生了一個非常堅固的岩床。 DRM 本身正在得到充分證明和穩定。我認為在這個市場上值得關注的有趣事情是人們購買音樂的方式會在未來幾年發生變化。訂閱模式會開始比購買模式更受歡迎嗎？坦率地說，我不確定我們是否知道答案。我們構建平台的方式是能夠支持這兩種類型的市場。但是，與今天您可能購買個人歌曲的模式相比，設備存儲成千上萬首歌曲並且您按月付費的訂閱模式，坦率地說，我們對此非常感興趣。我們確保我們擁有合適的平台和軟件應用程序來提供服務。因此，這可能是我們感興趣的趨勢，我認為市場也尚未解決。

Thanks much, guys.

非常感謝，伙計們。

Glenn Young, Smith Barney.

格倫·楊，美邦。

This is Craig Berger, sorry for the difficulties previously. A couple of questions. One on inventory, it looks like you guys were at about 6 days of inventory on a single point quarter basis exiting Q4, very much hand-to-mouth. What's your plan to be able to respond to customer upside requests, if those should arise in seasonally strong periods?

我是 Craig Berger，對於之前遇到的困難，我深表歉意。幾個問題。一個關於庫存，看起來你們在第四季度的單點季度基礎上大約有 6 天的庫存，非常手到嘴。如果這些需求出現在季節性旺盛時期，您有什麼計劃能夠響應客戶的上行需求？

I think the snapshot that you get there through the balance sheet is really a snapshot. This is not representative of our inventory policy. We're certainly targeting something that is higher than just 6 days of inventory. Now our model that we're operating in is where we only take finish goods, keep them, turn them around -- is certainly driving towards -- I don't want to call it just-in-time. But certainly, a low level, very cash flow oriented inventory model. Now 6 days is not my target. And again, I want to repeat, that's not representative of how the quarter looked. It is the snapshot at the end of December. I don't want to give you any details inside right now, how we want to drive this in the following months, but it's certainly going to be higher than 6 days.

我認為您通過資產負債表獲得的快照確實是快照。這不代表我們的庫存政策。我們的目標當然是超過 6 天的庫存。現在，我們正在運營的模式是我們只取成品，保留它們，把它們轉過來——當然是朝著——我不想稱之為準時制。但可以肯定的是，這是一種低水平、非常以現金流為導向的庫存模型。現在6天不是我的目標。再一次，我想重複一遍，這並不代表本季度的情況。這是12月底的快照。我現在不想給你任何內部細節，我們想在接下來的幾個月裡如何推動它，但肯定會超過 6 天。

Okay. Do you have any plans to move away from e-Silicon or LSI in the next year?

好的。您是否有計劃在明年離開 e-Silicon 或 LSI？

Both of those vendors have served us out, have -- they're serving us extremely well. They have very flexible business models and have worked very well with the foundries. So we're very satisfied with the support and the business model we're getting from those supplies. We of course always look at alternative supply models, and one of them would be a COTO (ph) direct engagement with the foundry. But we have made or announced no specific plans there. We're getting great support from those partners, but of course we will keep evaluating alternatives. Our volumes are now in the range where we have that flexibility, but we've made no announcements and are really able to say more in the investigative phase at this point.

這兩個供應商都為我們服務，他們為我們服務得非常好。他們有非常靈活的商業模式，並且與代工廠合作得很好。因此，我們對從這些供應品中獲得的支持和商業模式感到非常滿意。我們當然總是關注替代供應模式，其中之一是 COTO (ph) 與代工廠的直接合作。但是我們在那裡沒有製定或宣布任何具體計劃。我們得到了這些合作夥伴的大力支持，但我們當然會繼續評估替代方案。我們的數量現在處於我們擁有這種靈活性的範圍內，但我們沒有發布任何公告，並且在這一點上真的能夠在調查階段說更多。

Is there a particular volume point at which becomes very worthwhile to interface with the foundries and OSAT guys on your own?

是否有一個特定的體積點變得非常值得您自己與代工廠和 OSAT 人員交流？

This is more of an industry metric. It's highly unscientific. But typically, people say around 10 million units a year gets the interest of the fabs themselves and also allows you to drive some efficiencies there. So that is a typical industry metric.

這更像是一個行業指標。這是非常不科學的。但通常情況下，人們說每年大約有 1000 萬個單位會引起晶圓廠本身的興趣，並且還可以讓您在那裡提高一些效率。這是一個典型的行業指標。

And I may have missed it, but have you guys provided a target for sort of what you think your units could be in '05?

我可能錯過了，但是你們有沒有為你認為你的單位在 05 年可能達到的目標提供一個目標？

No, we haven't. We avoid the ASP and units forward-looking targets.

不，我們沒有。我們迴避平均售價和單位前瞻性目標。

Great. And if we look at our your R&D which spiked up significantly in December, is there any way you can help us understand how much is related to ongoing headcount versus period NRE?

偉大的。如果我們看看我們在 12 月顯著增加的研發，您有什麼方法可以幫助我們了解與持續員工人數與期間 NRE 的關係有多大？

I can give you that color. It's basically almost split evenly.

我可以給你那種顏色。它基本上幾乎是平分的。

So the $1.4 million increase is split evenly between headcount and NREs?

那麼增加的 140 萬美元是在員工人數和 NRE 之間平均分配的嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Okay, that's helpful. I guess my other question was just on gross margins. I think you guys have said your model was 41 to 44. Is that still the operating model?

好的，這很有幫助。我想我的另一個問題只是關於毛利率。我想你們說你們的模型是 41 到 44。這仍然是運營模型嗎？

It is the operating model, yes.

這是運營模式，是的。

And you guys aren't willing to provide any color within that range for Q1?

你們不願意為 Q1 提供該範圍內的任何顏色嗎？

No, not at this time.

不，不是在這個時候。

Okay, great. Thanks a lot guys.

好，太棒了。非常感謝你們。

Jason Pflaum, Thomas Weisel Partners.

Jason Pflaum，Thomas Weisel 合夥人。

Good afternoon. Maybe just to start, can you maybe describe the level of visibility you have into Q1, maybe discuss how much turns business is required to hit, say, the midpoint of your guidance?

下午好。也許剛開始，您能否描述一下您對第一季度的可見性水平，或者討論一下業務需要多少周轉才能達到，例如，您的指導的中點？

Let me answer on the first part certainly, what's the visibility. We have a pretty good visibility overall with our customers. It comes from when you focus on the big players in the market, you have a certain level of revenue concentration, and you also get a little bit better relationship management there. So I think it's reasonable to say that our visibility into Q1 is very good, but we all know that things can change. Backlog orders, planning, data can change, can be pushed around. Now also take into consideration that when we give guidance, we give guidance to GAAP numbers. And we know that, based on our revenue recognition policy, there is a deferral that occurs at the last two to three weeks of the quarter so that the shipments that occur in the last two to three weeks are deferred. And so a change in the plan for maybe just a day or something was supposed to ship on a day, and this has come in a day earlier or is going out a day later, can certainly significantly impact the guidance. So whatever the visibility is, in terms of the shipments, there is another level of difficulty when we give guidance for GAAP purposes.

讓我肯定地回答第一部分，可見性是什麼。我們在客戶中的整體知名度非常高。它來自於當你專注於市場上的大玩家時，你有一定程度的收入集中，你也在那裡得到了更好的關係管理。所以我認為有理由說我們對第一季度的可見性非常好，但我們都知道事情會發生變化。積壓的訂單、計劃、數據可以更改，可以推送。現在還要考慮到，當我們提供指導時，我們會為 GAAP 數字提供指導。我們知道，根據我們的收入確認政策，在本季度的最後兩到三週發生延期，因此在最後兩到三週發生的發貨被推遲。因此，計劃的更改可能只是一天或應該在一天內發貨，而這已經提前一天或一天后結束，肯定會對指導產生重大影響。因此，無論可見性如何，就出貨量而言，當我們為 GAAP 目的提供指導時，還有另一個難度。

And then just considering the linearity of Q1 as far as your plan goes, would you say it's somewhat back-end loaded?

然後就您的計劃而言，僅考慮 Q1 的線性度，您會說它有點後端負載嗎？

I cannot comment on that yet at this time. I think it's too early to really look and give comment on how the quarter really shakes out, in terms of where the shipments occur.

我目前無法對此發表評論。我認為，就出貨地點而言，真正查看並評論本季度如何真正擺脫困境還為時過早。

Okay. And then maybe if you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing from some of your hard drive vendors that you work very closely with. Have the constraints out there largely subsided? If not, when would you expect supply to catch up with demand?

好的。然後也許你能談談你從一些與你密切合作的硬盤供應商那裡看到的東西。那裡的限制在很大程度上消退了嗎？如果沒有，您預計供應何時能趕上需求？

We do see the situation improving from where we sit. We still believe that the demand is outstripping the supply into the segment. And if we had to -- when we look at the analysis, we look more towards the second half of this year to be a time where you might have some more equilibrium. We still think that the demand is very strong and it could well be the second half of '05 before that demand reaches balance.

我們確實看到情況有所改善。我們仍然認為，該細分市場的供不應求。如果我們不得不 - 當我們查看分析時，我們更多地期待今年下半年是一個你可能會有更多平衡的時間。我們仍然認為需求非常強勁，很可能要到 05 年下半年才能達到平衡。

Okay. So the second half, it normalizes in your guys' view. I guess along those same lines, do you see from your customers much pent-up demand that I guess was not serviced in Q4 that could roll into Q1? And how much of that is planned into your Q1 guidance?

好的。所以下半場，在你們看來，它正常化了。我猜沿著同樣的思路，您是否從您的客戶那裡看到了很多被壓抑的需求，我猜想在第四季度沒有得到服務，而這些需求可能會延續到第一季度？ Q1 指南中計劃了多少？

I'm not sure I can answer the question about the pent-up demand, but the guidance that we have given is significantly better than what you would expect in a normal, seasonal cycle in a year. Consumer electronics industry probably expects something going down like 30 percent. We got it down 10 to 20 percent from a very strong fourth quarter to not to forget this. So is this pent-up demand, or it is that part of that growth cycle that we're still in, it is hard to really say. But what I can reiterate here, we're absolutely excited about what we see in the first quarter and what we guided to.

我不確定我能否回答有關被壓抑的需求的問題，但我們給出的指導明顯好於您在一年中正常的季節性週期中所期望的。消費電子行業可能預計會下降 30%。為了不要忘記這一點，我們從非常強勁的第四季度下降了 10% 到 20%。這種被壓抑的需求也是如此，還是我們仍處於增長周期的那一部分，很難說。但我可以在這裡重申的是，我們對第一季度的所見所聞和我們的指導感到非常興奮。

Okay, terrific. Thanks a lot guys.

好的，棒極了。非常感謝你們。

Daniel Ernst, Hudson Square Research.

哈德遜廣場研究部的丹尼爾·恩斯特。

Good afternoon, Gary and Svend. Thanks for taking the call. Three questions, if I might. First of all, if you could give us both a general sense of your pipeline for potential design wins in the first half of the year, and then more specifically, on the plays for sure (ph) download-enabled devices. I know at the consumer electronics show, Microsoft was pretty bullish about rapid expansion this year devices geared for that new technology, which if my math is correct, you're in 4 of 7 that are currently enabled for that. So there's a general sense of the pipeline, and also specifically on the price per share. And then the second question, if you could comment on what you're initially seeing on demand substitution (indiscernible) mini and how that might impact your business for the year? And then the last question, could you just give me the number on your NOL carryforward for the year? I think if I read the math right, we should be expecting 4 (ph) corporate tax rates in the second quarter.

下午好，加里和斯文德。感謝您接聽電話。三個問題，如果可以的話。首先，如果您可以讓我們大致了解一下您在今年上半年獲得潛在設計勝利的渠道，然後更具體地說，可以讓我們了解支持下載功能的設備。我在消費電子展上知道，微軟非常看好今年針對這項新技術的設備的快速擴張，如果我的數學是正確的，那麼你在目前啟用的 7 個設備中的 4 個。因此，對管道有一般意義，特別是在每股價格方面。然後是第二個問題，您能否評論一下您最初看到的需求替代（聽不清）迷你版以及這可能會如何影響您今年的業務？然後最後一個問題，你能告訴我你今年的 NOL 結轉數字嗎？我想如果我沒看錯數學，我們應該預計第二季度的公司稅率為 4 （ph）。

I'll pick up real quick on the third question. So it's a $6 million NOL that we're carrying forward into 2005 for federal purposes freely available. And we've disclosed in the prospectus that there is a lot more NOL available, but it is limited in use to $1.5 to $1.6 million per year. Does that answer your question?

我會很快回答第三個問題。所以這是一個 600 萬美元的 NOL，我們為了聯邦目的免費提供到 2005 年。我們已經在招股說明書中披露，還有更多可用的 NOL，但每年的使用限制在 1.5 到 160 萬美元之間。這是否回答你的問題？

Yes.

是的。

So let's stop back to the first question then, which you combined on the pipeline and play (indiscernible). On the pipeline view of our business, CS is always an important event for us, in terms of the start of a calendar year. That generally allows our customers to work with us and look at new models and do new model planning together.

那麼讓我們回到第一個問題，你在管道和播放中結合了它（聽不清）。在我們業務的管道視圖中，就日曆年的開始而言，CS 始終是我們的重要事件。這通常允許我們的客戶與我們合作，共同研究新模型並進行新模型規劃。

From a macro sense, what that really means is the heavy work and engagement goes on in the Q2 timeframe with really new designs that come out of CS not really appearing into the market for Q3 and Q4 which is the peak demand. So from a pipeline cycle, CS is an important primer of the pump for the Q3, Q4 timeframe. Having said that of course, other customers have their own -- have worked with us to maybe earlier in the cycle, have faster development plans, have different ways to springboard one product from another, and their product cycle will be completely dependent on their competitive positioning and how they release. So with my earlier comments, I wouldn't want to dismiss Q2 as a blank period. But CS certainly feeds Q3, Q4, and then the customer announcements themselves from various customers also come out in the spring timeframe as well.

從宏觀的角度來看，這真正意味著第二季度的繁重工作和參與，來自 CS 的真正新設計並沒有真正出現在第三季度和第四季度的市場上，這是需求的高峰期。因此，從管道周期來看，CS 是 Q3、Q4 時間範圍內泵的重要引物。話雖如此，其他客戶當然也有自己的——可能在周期的早期與我們合作，有更快的開發計劃，有不同的方式從另一種產品中跳出來，他們的產品週期將完全取決於他們的競爭力定位以及它們如何釋放。因此，根據我之前的評論，我不想將第二季度視為空白期。但 CS 肯定會為第三季度、第四季度提供信息，然後來自不同客戶的客戶公告本身也在春季時間框架內發布。

On the play for sure (ph) initiative, again, the beauty and power of the PortalPlayer platform with the power of the 2 CPU architecture, the strength of our firmware and software platform, means that sort of fairly complex but important innovations like play for sure, which need lots of horsepower and capabilities, absolutely match what we're good at. So we've been working very diligently on that program with both the Microsoft and a number of customers very closely. So yes, we're very supportive of the program. When our customers demand different types of applications and music services, we of course support them. So we're very supportive of that program.

在 play for sure (ph) 計劃中，PortalPlayer 平台的美感和強大功能以及 2 CPU 架構的強大功能、我們的固件和軟件平台的強大功能，意味著相當複雜但重要的創新，例如 play for當然，這需要大量的馬力和能力，絕對符合我們擅長的。因此，我們一直在非常努力地與 Microsoft 和許多客戶密切合作。所以是的，我們非常支持該計劃。當我們的客戶需要不同類型的應用程序和音樂服務時，我們當然會支持他們。所以我們非常支持這個計劃。

Let's move onto the second one, which was your question about demand and substitution. We're absolutely not going to dive into discussions of our customers' product and product mix, so we will avoid and we will not be answering those types of questions. But if I step back and instead maybe just look at the market and look at some of the market dynamics, all of this I think is a lot of this is about price points, judging the right price points of functionality, having products that get more and more users into using MP3 and AAC music we think is great overall and we think consumers will then start to grade up into more feature-rich products, which will resell in that market very strongly. So overall, anything that expands this market and gets more users using MP3 AAC we think is a great demand driver for the overall market.

讓我們進入第二個問題，這是你關於需求和替代的問題。我們絕對不會深入討論客戶的產品和產品組合，因此我們會避免也不會回答這些類型的問題。但是，如果我退後一步，也許只是看看市場，看看一些市場動態，我認為所有這些都是關於價格點，判斷功能的正確價格點，讓產品獲得更多以及更多的用戶使用我們認為總體上很好的 MP3 和 AAC 音樂，我們認為消費者將開始升級到功能更豐富的產品，這些產品將在該市場非常強勁地轉售。所以總的來說，我們認為任何能夠擴大這個市場並獲得更多用戶使用 MP3 AAC 的東西都是對整個市場的巨大需求驅動力。

Okay, fair enough. If I could just follow up on the first question on the pipeline. Coming out of CES, I understand from talking over the industry, there was a lot of new technology demoed by PortalPlayer unseen by the market. So I had the sense that the pipeline was pumped well, but your comments were a little bit vague, so it gave me a sense of how you feel in it. Right now, you are 80, 90 percent market share on hard disk drive players. How do you feel coming out of CES, that you will exit '05?

好吧，夠公平的。如果我能跟進管道上的第一個問題。從CES上出來，我從業內的談話中了解到，PortalPlayer展示了很多市場看不到的新技術。所以我感覺管道抽得很好，但你的評論有點含糊，所以它讓我了解了你的感受。現在，您在硬盤播放器上佔有 80% 到 90% 的市場份額。從 05 年退出 CES，你感覺如何？

We feel very strong. The innovation that we've continued to deliver and execute on again -- having that combination of the firmware and excellent chip platform to build upon means that we deliver to our customers a whole new range of exciting applications time and time again. And so you're right. We have not yet disclosed these exciting new innovations in CES. Time will tell. We will be getting there soon. But that has fed our customers' product planning cycles very well and so we're very positive. They were very positive and we had an excellent CES.

我們感覺很強大。我們繼續交付和執行的創新——將固件和優秀的芯片平台相結合，意味著我們一次又一次地向我們的客戶交付一系列全新的令人興奮的應用程序。所以你是對的。我們尚未在 CES 上披露這些激動人心的新創新。時間會證明一切。我們很快就會到達那裡。但這很好地滿足了我們客戶的產品規劃週期，因此我們非常積極。他們非常積極，我們舉辦了一場出色的 CES。

Okay, I look forward to hearing about it.

好的，我期待聽到它。

Andrew Neff, Bear Stearns.

安德魯·內夫，貝爾斯登。

I want to clarify one question or one that you raised before in terms of your mix of business, in terms of -- you said your largest customer you said dropped from 95 percent in September to the high 80s -- I'm sorry -- in September, the high 80s in December -- is that what you said?

我想澄清你之前就業務組合提出的一個或一個問題，你說你最大的客戶從 9 月份的 95% 下降到 80 年代的高位 - 對不起 - 9 月，12 月的 80 年代高點——這就是你所說的嗎？

That's what we said, yes.

這就是我們所說的，是的。

Can you give any sense about as you have given your guidance of about 15 or 20 percent sequential decline, where your largest customer will be in March?

根據您給出的連續下降約 15% 或 20% 的指導，您能否給出任何意義，您最大的客戶將在 3 月份出現在哪裡？

No, we haven't given anything. We haven't given that information and we won't do that, in terms of guidance.

不，我們什麼都沒給。在指導方面，我們沒有提供這些信息，也不會這樣做。

Also, the guidance we gave was 10 to 20 percent. So just making sure we're on the same wavelength, yes.

此外，我們給出的指導是 10% 到 20%。所以只要確保我們在同一個波長上，是的。

So in terms of your largest customer, would you, given the different directions things are going, is your goal to diversify your mix? Do you think that you're trying to ask the question different ways?

因此，就您最大的客戶而言，鑑於事情的發展方向不同，您的目標是多樣化您的組合嗎？你認為你試圖以不同的方式提出這個問題嗎？

Let's step back and look at the year, rather than the quarter. I think we have made it no particular secret. Of course over time as we develop new technologies and have new capabilities, we hope that customer concentration does become less pronounced. Having said that, we support our large customers incredibly well. So yes, in general, as we introduce new technologies and they start to impact adjacent markets, we think we'll see a natural diversification of our market share. That should not be opined directly therefore to the success of any particular MP3 supplier in the market. So just naturally as a company, we're looking to have new technologies that broaden our base. But again, Andy, we're going to be very careful of course to not divulge or give any forward-looking views that would be impactful to our large significant customers.

讓我們退後一步，看看年份，而不是季度。我想我們並沒有特別保密。當然，隨著時間的推移，隨著我們開發新技術並擁有新能力，我們希望客戶集中度確實變得不那麼明顯。話雖如此，我們非常好地支持我們的大客戶。所以是的，總的來說，隨著我們引入新技術並開始影響相鄰市場，我們認為我們將看到我們的市場份額自然多樣化。因此，不應直接認為任何特定 MP3 供應商在市場上的成功。因此，作為一家公司，我們自然而然地希望擁有能夠擴大我們基礎的新技術。但是，安迪，我們當然會非常小心，不要洩露或給出任何對我們的大型重要客戶有影響的前瞻性觀點。

I understand. Thank you very much.

我明白。非常感謝。

Quinn Bolton, Needham & Co.

Quinn Bolton, Needham & Co.

Hi, guys. Just wanted to follow up on your question or your comments about seasonality. One, can you sort of lay out for us what you think season might be in a typical year, first quarter, second quarter, third quarter and fourth quarter? And then a second quick follow-up.

嗨，大家好。只是想跟進您的問題或您對季節性的評論。一，您能否為我們列出您認為典型年份、第一季度、第二季度、第三季度和第四季度的季節可能是什麼？然後是第二次快速跟進。

In a typically year, I would expect the first quarter to be probably somewhere 25 to 30 percent below the fourth quarter. And then the second quarter, maybe another drop of 10 percent over the first quarter. And then on the third and fourth, it's a little harder to predict because then it depends on what products are introduced. But there's a significant ramp from the second into the third quarter for us. So let me separate ourselves a little bit from the consumer space. Time will tell whether our strongest quarter is the third or the fourth, but both quarters in our internal planning are very strong quarters.

在通常情況下，我預計第一季度可能會比第四季度低 25% 到 30%。然後是第二季度，可能比第一季度再下降 10%。然後在第三和第四，這有點難以預測，因為這取決於推出的產品。但對我們來說，從第二季度到第三季度有一個顯著的增長。因此，讓我將自己與消費者領域分開一點。時間會證明我們最強勁的季度是第三季度還是第四季度，但我們內部計劃中的兩個季度都是非常強勁的季度。

The second question was just, when you commented about 2005 being potentially better than a seasonal year, was that really focused on the first quarter, or do you think that every quarter through the year has the potential to be better than seasonal?

第二個問題是，當您評論 2005 年可能優於季節性年份時，這是否真的集中在第一季度，或者您認為全年的每個季度都有可能優於季節性年份？

Well, the comment was certainly focused with what we know and see right now, which is the first quarter. The visibility into the second quarter is certainly not as clear as our visibility in the first. But there is, in terms of planning, the second quarter might be a little better than the first if the trend of the first quarter just grows into the second.

好吧，評論肯定集中在我們現在所知道和看到的，這是第一季度。第二季度的能見度肯定不如我們在第一季度的能見度那麼清晰。但是從規劃上來說，如果一季度的趨勢剛好長到二季度，二季度可能會比一季度好一點。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好，太棒了。謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our Q&A session. I'll turn the conference back to Gary Johnson for closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，這確實結束了我們的問答環節。我將把會議轉回給加里·約翰遜（Gary Johnson）做閉幕詞。

Thank you everyone for joining us today on our first call. Thank you very much for the support and great questions. We do plan to present at the Thomas Weisel Partners 2005 Tech Conference on February 9 and look forward to seeing many of you there. And with that, I'd like to thank you again and we will conclude this conference call.

感謝大家今天加入我們的第一次電話會議。非常感謝您的支持和很好的問題。我們確實計劃在 2 月 9 日出席 Thomas Weisel Partners 2005 技術大會，並期待與你們中的許多人見面。有了這個，我想再次感謝你，我們將結束這次電話會議。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference. We do appreciate your participation. You may disconnect at this time.

女士們，先生們，這確實結束了我們的會議。我們非常感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開連接。