Noble Corporation PLC (NE) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Noble Corporation third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎參加 Noble Corporation 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）

I will now hand today's call over to Ian Macpherson.

我現在將今天的電話會議轉交給伊恩·麥克弗森。

Welcome everyone to Noble Corporation's third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. You can find a copy of our earnings report along with the supporting statements and schedules on our website at noblecorp.com. This conference call will be accompanied by a slide presentation that you can also find located at the Investor Relations section of our website.

歡迎大家參加 Noble Corporation 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。您可以在我們的網站 Nobelcorp.com 上找到我們的收益報告副本以及支援報表和時間表。本次電話會議將附有幻燈片簡報，您也可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到該幻燈片簡報。

Today's call will feature prepared remarks from our President and CEO, Robert Eifler, as well as our CFO, Richard Barker. Also joining on the call are Blake Denton, Senior Vice President of Marketing and Contracts; and Joey Kawaja, Senior Vice President of Operations.

今天的電話會議將由我們的總裁兼執行長 Robert Eifler 以及我們的財務長 Richard Barker 發表準備好的演講。參加電話會議的還有行銷和合約資深副總裁 Blake Denton；和喬伊·卡瓦賈 (Joey Kawaja)，營運資深副總裁。

During the course of this call, we may make certain forward-looking statements regarding various matters related to our business and companies that are not historical facts. Such statements are based upon current expectations and assumptions of management, and are therefore subject to certain risks and uncertainties.

在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會就與我們的業務和公司相關的各種事項做出某些非歷史事實的前瞻性陳述。此類陳述是基於管理層目前的預期和假設，因此存在一定的風險和不確定性。

Many factors could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements, and Noble does not assume any obligation to update these statements.

許多因素可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異，來寶不承擔任何更新這些陳述的義務。

Also note we are referencing non-GAAP financial measures on the call today. You can find the required supplemental disclosure for these measures, including the most directly comparable GAAP measure in and associated reconciliation in our earnings report issued yesterday and filed with the SEC.

另請注意，我們在今天的電話會議上引用的是非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們昨天發布並提交給 SEC 的收益報告中找到這些措施所需的補充披露，包括最直接可比較的 GAAP 措施以及相關的調節表。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Robert Eifler, President and CEO of Noble.

現在，我將把電話轉給 Noble 總裁兼執行長 Robert Eifler。

Thanks Ian. Good day everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's call. I'll begin with a brief update on our acquisition of Diamond Offshore, followed by highlights of our capital return program, third quarter results, recent commercial and operational activities, and some market outlook color. Richard will then discuss our financial results and provide guidance for the fourth quarter. Finally, I'll wrap up with closing remarks, and open the floor for questions.

謝謝伊恩。大家好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議。我將首先簡要介紹我們收購 Diamond Offshore 的最新情況，然後重點介紹我們的資本回報計劃、第三季業績、最近的商業和營運活動以及一些市場前景。然後理查德將討論我們的財務業績並提供第四季度的指導。最後，我將做結束語，並開始提問。

As most of you know, we closed the acquisition of Diamond Offshore on September 4, combining two great companies with incredibly rich legacies, and leading deepwater capabilities. I want to extend my appreciation to everyone across both organizations who worked tirelessly to close this transaction in just under three months.

正如你們大多數人所知，我們在 9 月 4 日完成了對 Diamond Offshore 的收購，將兩個擁有極其豐富的遺產和領先的深水能力的偉大公司合併在一起。我要向兩個組織中的每個人表示感謝，他們不懈努力，在不到三個月的時間內完成了這筆交易。

This highly synergistic combination brings together over 150 years of combined experience, creating a fleet of 41 rigs, including the largest fleet of seventh generation dual-BOP drillships in the industry, while also adding $2 billion of well priced backlog. As we pass the 60-day integration mark, we are excited to share some early wins, including meaningful synergies realized that have us on track to achieve our stated targets.

這種高度協同的組合匯集了150 多年的綜合經驗，創建了一支由41 座鑽機組成的船隊，其中包括業內最大的第七代雙防噴器鑽井船船隊，同時還增加了20 億美元的價格合理的積壓訂單。當我們經過 60 天的整合大關時，我們很高興分享一些早期的成果，包括實現的有意義的協同效應，使我們有望實現既定目標。

Tier management has visited legacy Diamond rigs and customers around the globe, while prioritizing a focused commitment to business continuity through safe and efficient operations. Thus far, everything is proceeding very smoothly according to our well-practiced integration playbook.

各級管理層走訪了全球各地的傳統鑽石鑽機和客戶，同時優先致力於透過安全高效的營運來實現業務連續性。到目前為止，根據我們實踐良好的整合手冊，一切都進展得非常順利。

Next, I'd like to highlight additional progress with our Return of Capital program. Following the execution of $250 million of share repurchases in the third quarter, we have completed $360 million of repurchases under our original $400 million authorization. And our Board of Directors has recently approved a second $400 million authorization, while also maintaining our quarterly dividend here in the fourth quarter at $0.50 per share.

接下來，我想強調我們的資本回報計劃的其他進展。繼第三季執行 2.5 億美元的股票回購之後，我們已根據最初的 4 億美元授權完成了 3.6 億美元的回購。我們的董事會最近批准了第二筆 4 億美元的授權，同時將第四季的季度股息維持在每股 0.50 美元。

We recognize that our differentiated Return of Capital program is a critical factor for investors. And I'm pleased to highlight that we have now eclipsed $800 million in combined dividends and buybacks since we closed the Maersk Drilling combination in Q4 2022, inclusive of this quarter's announced dividend.

我們認識到，我們差異化的資本回報計劃對投資者來說是一個關鍵因素。我很高興地強調，自 2022 年第四季關閉馬士基鑽井合併以來，我們的股息和回購總額現已超過 8 億美元，其中包括本季宣布的股息。

Moving to our financial highlights. In the third quarter, we delivered strong results, with continued EBITDA and cash flow expansion. On a consolidated basis, we achieved adjusted EBITDA of $291 million, compared to $271 million in Q2, and free cash flow for the quarter was strong at $165 million.

轉向我們的財務亮點。第三季度，我們取得了強勁的業績，EBITDA 和現金流持續擴張。在合併基礎上，我們實現了調整後 EBITDA 2.91 億美元，而第二季為 2.71 億美元，該季度的自由現金流強勁，達到 1.65 億美元。

These results include approximately four weeks of contribution from the Diamond acquisition in September. Richard will have additional color on the combined results in a moment, but suffice it to say that the Diamond acquisition further enhances our free cash flow profile with significant and immediate accretion. This marks a great start for our combined company.

這些結果包括 9 月收購 Diamond 帶來的約四週的貢獻。理查德稍後將對合併結果進行更多說明，但足以說明，鑽石收購進一步增強了我們的自由現金流狀況，並立即顯著增加。這標誌著我們合併後公司的良好開端。

Shifting now to our commercial and operational highlights. First, during the third quarter, we were awarded 4.8 rig years of additional backlog for the four drillships working under the commercial enabling agreement with ExxonMobil in Guyana, further validating the successful commercial and operational model, and extending our visibility in the country through August 2028.

現在轉向我們的商業和營運亮點。首先，在第三季度，根據與埃克森美孚在圭亞那的商業支援協議，我們為四艘鑽井船獲得了4.8 個鑽機年的額外積壓訂單，進一步驗證了成功的商業和營運模式，並擴大了我們在該國的知名度，直至2028 年8 月。

We've also recently booked an additional 130 days for the Ocean Endeavor, working for Shell in the UK North Sea, between March and July 2025 plus options. As of today, our total backlog currently stands at $6.2 billion.

我們最近也為 Ocean Endeavour 號額外預訂了 130 天的工作時間，在 2025 年 3 月至 7 月期間為殼牌在英國北海工作，並提供選項。截至今天，我們的積壓訂單總額已達 62 億美元。

In addition to these most recent fixtures, in July, the BlackRhino was awarded a six-month contract with Beacon Offshore Energy in the Gulf of Mexico at a day rate slightly below $500,000. This program is slated to commence in the first quarter of 2025 following the rig's SPS and MPD upgrade that are underway. Following the BlackRhino's MPD upgrade, we will have 15 rigs equipped with MPD, enhancing our dominant position in this increasingly essential technical domain.

除了這些最近的固定裝置外，7 月份，BlackRhino 還與墨西哥灣 Beacon Offshore Energy 簽訂了一份為期六個月的合同，日費略低於 50 萬美元。該計劃預計於 2025 年第一季開始，隨後該鑽機的 SPS 和 MPD 升級正在進行中。隨著BlackRhino的MPD升級，我們將有15台裝備MPD的鑽機，增強我們在這個日益重要的技術領域的主導地位。

In South America, the Faye Kozack successfully commenced its contract with Petrobras in Brazil, and set a new pre-salt drilling record on its first well. Hats off to the crews of the Faye Kozack on this impressive accomplishment right out of the gate.

在南美洲，Faye Kozack與巴西國家石油公司在巴西成功簽訂合同，並在第一口井中創造了鹽下鑽探新紀錄。向 Faye Kozack 的船員們致敬，他們一開始就取得了令人印象深刻的成就。

In Colombia, the Discoverer has successfully drilled its first well for Petrobras, and we look forward to continuing to work on this important gas development for the region. In the UK, the Ocean GreatWhite resumed its contract with BP in early July, following equipment repairs. And the contract is now expected to continue through April 2025, with priced options following that firm's club.

在哥倫比亞，Discoverer 已成功為巴西國家石油公司鑽探了第一口井，我們期待繼續致力於該地區這項重要的天然氣開發。在英國，Ocean GreatWhite 在設備維修後於 7 月初恢復了與 BP 的合約。目前，該合約預計將持續到 2025 年 4 月，並根據該公司的俱樂部提供定價選項。

And finally, the BlackLion in the Gulf of Mexico and the Deliverer in Australia, both moved to substantially higher day rate contracts in the mid to high 400s during the quarter. Now, I'd like to share a brief word on the market.

最後，墨西哥灣的 BlackLion 和澳洲的 Deliverer 在本季度均大幅上漲了 400 美元左右的日費合約。現在，我想簡單介紹一下市場狀況。

The core fundamentals of our business remain structurally sound. Global energy demand is increasing. Energy security remains a global priority, and offshore supply represents a highly strategic and advantaged resource priority for the upstream industry. Also, over the last several quarters, open demand for floaters continues to track at a historically high level of above 100 rig years of demand from tenders and pre-tenders in the public domain, excluding the substantial additional volume of work, this stems separately from direct awards.

我們業務的核心基本面結構仍然健全。全球能源需求不斷增加。能源安全仍然是全球優先考慮的問題，海上供應對上游產業來說是具有高度戰略性和優勢的資源優先權。此外，在過去的幾個季度中，對浮式設備的開放需求繼續保持在歷史高位，超過100 個鑽機年的需求來自公共領域的招標和預招標，不包括大量額外的工作量，這分別來源於直接獎勵。

Against this backdrop, recent contracting activity for deepwater rigs has shown an encouraging uptick. After a slowdown in the second quarter, the industry saw an improvement in backlog booked, with 26 ultra deepwater rig years contracted in Q3, marking a 20% increase over Q2, and in line with the strong contracting level seen in 2022 and '23.

在此背景下，近期深水鑽井平台的承包活動出現了令人鼓舞的成長。在第二季放緩之後，該行業的積壓情況有所改善，第三季度超深水鑽井平台簽約量為26 個年份，較第二季度增長20%，與2022 年和23 年的強勁簽約水平一致。

While the majority of these recent fixtures have contract start dates in late 2025 or later, leaving the white space of the first half of 2025 unaddressed. We do believe that these are the first of many signs supporting a demand uptick in late 2025 and early 2026.

雖然最近的大部分比賽的合約開始日期為 2025 年末或之後，但 2025 年上半年的空白尚未解決。我們確實相信，這些只是支持 2025 年底和 2026 年初需求上升的眾多跡像中的第一個。

As you can see on our backlog slide on page 5 of the earnings presentation, we currently have 56% of our total marketed fleet committed for 2025. As you drill a little further into the mix, our marketed floaters are 59% contracted next year and our Tier 1 drillships are slightly above 75% committed for 2025. O

正如您在收益簡報第 5 頁的積壓幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們目前已承諾 2025 年銷售機隊總數的 56%。如果您進一步深入了解，我們銷售的浮式鑽機明年已簽約的比例為 59%，而我們的 1 級鑽井船則略高於 2025 年簽約的 75%。氧

ur higher end units with near-term availability are the Voyager, Valiant, Gerry de Souza and Venturer. And I would say that today, we have active conversations and leads behind all of these units. In our sixth gen fleet, we currently have more active conversations on the Discoverer and the Deliverer than we have had at any time since we acquired these units.

近期推出的高階機種包括 Voyager、Valiant、Gerry de Souza 和 Venturer。我想說，今天，我們在所有這些部門背後進行了積極的對話和領導。在我們的第六代機隊中，我們目前關於發現者號和交付者號的對話比我們收購這些設備以來的任何時候都更加活躍。

So the contracting outlook there is promising. Meanwhile, the Globetrotters, similarly, have a number of active leads for 2025 work, almost exclusively for intervention programs, as we have previously indicated. The timing associated with these opportunities collectively supports a potentially meaningful ramp and utilization in run rate EBITDA compared to our current level, by the second half of 2025.

因此，那裡的承包前景是有希望的。同時，正如我們之前指出的，環球旅行者隊也有許多 2025 年工作的積極領導，幾乎專門用於乾預計劃。與我們目前的水平相比，到 2025 年下半年，與這些機會相關的時機共同支持了 EBITDA 運行率的潛在有意義的增長和利用率。

Although, there's obviously still some work to be done to convert these opportunities to firm backlog. I would also say that the nature of the discussions and negotiations with our customers over the past few weeks has been increasingly active and constructive as 2025 customer budget allocations are beginning to take shape.

儘管如此，顯然仍然需要做一些工作才能將這些機會轉化為公司積壓的訂單。我還想說，隨著 2025 年客戶預算分配開始形成，過去幾週與客戶的討論和談判變得越來越積極和建設性。

If the next several months plays out as we currently envision, then we should see a backlog in utilization inflection next year. Given the abundance of active opportunities, we have elected not to stack any rigs at this time. However, if demand does not materialize as expected, then we will move decisively to stack one or more 6G units as the market dictates.

如果未來幾個月的情況如我們目前的設想，那麼明年我們應該會看到利用率拐點出現積壓。鑑於有大量的活躍機會，我們選擇此時不堆疊任何鑽孔機。然而，如果需求沒有如預期實現，那麼我們將根據市場的需要果斷地堆疊一台或多台 6G 設備。

On the jack-up side, despite some continuing and more recent NOC headwinds, the market has remained quite resilient, with global demand recently eclipsing 410 rigs and marketed utilization at 93%. Noble's jack-up fleet utilization improved from 77% in Q2 up to 83% in Q3. And we currently have 11 of our 13 rigs contracted at an average day rate of approximately $145,000 per day.

在自升式鑽井平台方面，儘管國家石油公司近期面臨一些持續的阻力，但市場仍保持相當強的彈性，全球需求最近超過了 410 座鑽井平台，市場利用率為 93%。Noble 的自升式鑽井船隊利用率從第二季的 77% 提高到第三季的 83%。目前，我們 13 座鑽機中的 11 座以平均日費率約為每天 145,000 美元的價格簽訂了合約。

North Sea operators have generally taken a tentative approach to capital deployment ahead of last week's budget announcement in the UK, which unsurprisingly introduced incrementally higher taxation on the upstream sector. Amid these fiscal and regulatory crosswinds, we expect the North Sea jack-up market to continue to be characterized by relatively constrained demand visibility.

在英國上周公布預算之前，北海業者普遍採取了試探性的資本部署方式，毫不奇怪，英國對上游產業逐步提高了稅收。在這些財政和監管不利因素的影響下，我們預期北海自升式鑽井平台市場的需求能見度將持續相對有限。

But note that early indications of the market reactions to last week's UK budget news are generally neutral, at least not significantly negative. And that thus far, that market has been more stable over the past couple of years than we might have expected against the consistently difficult contextual backdrop.

但請注意，市場對上周英國預算消息反應的早期跡象總體上是中性的，至少沒有顯著負面。到目前為止，在過去幾年裡，在持續困難的環境背景下，該市場比我們預期的更加穩定。

With that, I'll now pass the call to Richard to cover the financials.

現在，我將把電話轉給理查德，詢問財務狀況。

Thank you, Robert, and good morning or good afternoon all. In my remarks today, I will briefly review the third quarter highlight, and then touch on the outlook for the remainder of the year, and 2025.

謝謝你，羅伯特，大家早安或下午好。在今天的演講中，我將簡要回顧第三季的亮點，然後談談今年剩餘時間和 2025 年的展望。

Contract drilling services revenue for the third quarter totaled $764 million, up from $661 million in the second quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $291 million in Q3, up from $271 million in Q2. The adjusted EBITDA margin for the third quarter was 36%.

第三季合約鑽井服務收入總計 7.64 億美元，高於第二季的 6.61 億美元。第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.91 億美元，高於第二季的 2.71 億美元。第三季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 36%。

Cash flow from operations was $284 million, net capital expenditures were $119 million, and free cash flow was $165 million, which was burdened by transaction costs related to the Diamond transaction. All of the aforementioned figures reflect the approximate four weeks contribution from Diamond in September. For your reference, if legacy Diamond had been included in our results for the full quarter, as opposed to just from closing on September 4, Q3 adjusted EBITDA would have illustratively been close to $350 million.

營運現金流為 2.84 億美元，淨資本支出為 1.19 億美元，自由現金流為 1.65 億美元，這是由與鑽石交易相關的交易成本造成的。上述所有數據均反映了 Diamond 在 9 月約四週的貢獻。供您參考，如果將傳統 Diamond 納入我們整個季度的業績中，而不是僅從 9 月 4 日結束時算起，那麼第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 將接近 3.5 億美元。

As summarized on page 5 of the earnings presentation slides, our total backlog as of November 5, stands at $6.2 billion, which includes approximately $500 million that is scheduled for revenue conversion in the final eight weeks of this year, and $2.6 billion that is scheduled for 2025.

正如收益簡報投影片第5 頁所總結的那樣，截至11 月5 日，我們的積壓訂單總額為62 億美元，其中包括計劃在今年最後八週內進行收入轉換的約5 億美元，以及計劃在今年最後八週內營收轉換的26 億美元。

As a reminder, this backlog does not include reimbursable revenue or revenue from ancillary services. The Diamond integration is progressing well. We are on the way to capturing the $100 million of announced energy and continue to expect to have 75% captured within one year of closing.

提醒一下，此積壓訂單不包括可報銷收入或輔助服務收入。鑽石整合進展順利。我們正在努力獲取已宣布的 1 億美元能源，並繼續預計在交易結束後一年內獲取 75%。

Referring to page 10 of the earnings slides, we are providing guidance for the fourth quarter as follows: Total revenue is in the range of $850 million to $890 million, which includes approximately $30 million to $35 million of reimbursable revenue.

參考收益投影片第 10 頁，我們對第四季的指引如下： 總收入在 8.5 億至 8.9 億美元之間，其中包括約 3,000 萬至 3,500 萬美元的可償還收入。

Adjusted EBITDA between $275 million and $305 million, and net capital additions between $105 million and $135 million. The biggest drivers to the reduction in fourth quarter revenue in adjusted EBITDA, when compared to a Q3 that includes the Diamond rigs for the full quarter is the current shipyard project for the BlackRhinos, as well as the Globetrotter I and Voyager finishing up their program.

調整後 EBITDA 在 2.75 億美元至 3.05 億美元之間，淨資本增加在 1.05 億美元至 1.35 億美元之間。與包括整個季度鑽石鑽機在內的第三季度相比，第四季度調整後 EBITDA 收入減少的最大推動因素是 BlackRhinos 目前的造船廠項目，以及 Globetrotter I 和 Voyager 項目的完成。

I would note that, where we expect full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA to come out based on the midpoint of this Q4 2024 EBITDA guidance would correspond very closely to the midpoint of the guidance range that we put out right at the beginning of the year when adjusting for the Diamond acquisition.

我要指出的是，我們預計 2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 將根據 2024 年第四季度 EBITDA 指導的中點得出，該指導範圍將與我們在年初調整時提出的指導範圍的中點非常接近為鑽石收購。

As Robert previously alluded to, we are reasonably and increasingly constructive about a variety of contracting opportunities over the next few months, which could drive an inflection in our total backlog, as well as support a materially higher level of EBITDA potential in the second half of 2025. However, until these opportunities come to fruition.

正如羅伯特之前提到的，我們對未來幾個月的各種合約機會持合理且越來越有建設性的態度，這可能會推動我們總積壓訂單的變化，並支持下半年EBITDA 潛力的大幅提高。然而，直到這些機會實現為止。

I think it is reasonable to infer that the fourth quarter run rate EBITDA of the combined Noble and Diamond fleets, represents an approximate indication of where the business is tracking into the first half of 2025. We will look to put out full year 2025 guidance, in conjunction with our year end 2024 results.

我認為可以合理地推斷，Noble 和 Diamond 機隊合併後的第四季度 EBITDA 大致表明了該業務在 2025 年上半年的發展。我們將結合 2024 年底的業績發布 2025 年全年指引。

As an organization, we remain laser focused on maximizing capital returns to shareholders. Despite a near-term outlook that has been negatively impacted by various contracting opportunities moving to the vice, we still expect 2025 to represent a nice step up in free cash flow.

作為一個組織，我們始終專注於股東資本回報最大化。儘管近期前景受到各種承包機會轉向副業的負面影響，但我們仍然預計 2025 年自由現金流將出現良好的成長。

Supporting this 2025 free cash flow step up is an expected reduction in CapEx. As previously stated, CapEx for both the Legacy Noble and Diamond fleets should be trending materially lower next year, following the peak of the five-year SPS cycle in 2024.

支持 2025 年自由現金流增加的是資本支出的預期減少。如前所述，繼 2024 年五年 SPS 週期達到頂峰之後，Legacy Noble 和 Diamond 機隊的資本支出明年將大幅下降。

For reference, the illustrative combined company's 2024 total CapEx on a full 12-month basis is expected to be approximately $550 million. And looking ahead to next year, we expect this to reduce by approximately 25% to 30%, which will provide another free cash flow tailwind. And as evidenced by our actions to-date, we look forward to returning essentially all of our free cash flow to shareholders.

作為參考，示例性合併公司 2024 年完整 12 個月的資本支出總額預計約為 5.5 億美元。展望明年，我們預計這一數字將減少約 25% 至 30%，這將提供另一個自由現金流的推動力。正如我們迄今為止的行動所證明的那樣，我們期待將所有自由現金流返還給股東。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Robert.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給羅伯特。

Thank you, Richard. Before we turn to Q&A, I'd just like to provide a few closing remarks. First, I'd like to thank our employees for your continued effort and commitment to the highly exacting standards that we hold ourselves to with our first choice ambition.

謝謝你，理查。在我們開始問答之前，我想做一些結束語。首先，我要感謝我們的員工的持續努力和對嚴格標準的承諾，這是我們以第一選擇的雄心所堅持的。

This cuts across HSE, operational excellence, reliability, service posture, integration, buy-in and a culture of supporting one another and making the right decisions day in and day out. Through our journey over the past two years, you have gone much further than just integrating companies and have created an innovative industry leader.

這涉及 HSE、卓越營運、可靠性、服務態度、整合、支援以及日復一日地相互支持和做出正確決策的文化。透過我們過去兩年的歷程，您不僅整合了公司，而且還創造了一個創新的行業領導者。

At the same time, we have positioned Noble to deliver differentiated cash flow for our shareholders through variable cyclical conditions. And while the slowdown in contracting velocity that we have witnessed over the past year has created a near-term drag on expected earnings growth for the industry, we remain constructive on the multi-year fundamental outlook, and also optimistic that the next leg up in the cycle will begin to come into focus with contracting developments over the next few months, and then build throughout 2025.

同時，我們將來寶定位為透過可變的周期性條件為我們的股東提供差異化的現金流。儘管我們在過去一年中目睹的收縮速度放緩已在短期內拖累了該行業的預期盈利增長，但我們對多年基本面前景仍持建設性態度，並對未來的上漲持樂觀態度該週期將在未來幾個月內開始成為合約開發的重點，然後在2025 年持續發展。

We will be watching 2025 upstream spending plans closely. But thus far, early indication is that our customers are, on average, planning for higher offshore spending next year. For Noble, we expect the next few quarters to track relatively flat from an EBITDA perspective, before an expected step-up in the second half of 2025. Through this progression, we will look to deploy surplus free cash flow above the current $2 annualized dividend towards share repurchases going forward.

我們將密切關注 2025 年上游支出計畫。但到目前為止，早期跡象表明，我們的客戶平均計劃明年增加離岸支出。對於來寶公司來說，我們預計未來幾季的 EBITDA 將相對持平，預計 2025 年下半年會有所上升。透過這項進展，我們將尋求將高於目前 2 美元年化股息的剩餘自由現金流用於未來的股票回購。

So I'll wrap up there, operator. We're ready to open the call for questions.

那我就到此結束吧，接線生。我們已準備好開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Eddie Kim, Barclays.

（操作員指示）Eddie Kim，巴克萊銀行。

Just wanted to start with your outlook for the first half of next year, and some of the white space concerns. You were one of the first to call out white space across the industry. Could you just expand upon the reasons you're seeing for these utilization headwinds in the first half, some of your peers have talked about customer capital discipline, delayed FPSOs. Is that what you're seeing as well?

只是想從您對明年上半年的展望以及一些空白問題開始。您是最早指出整個行業空白的人之一。您能詳細說明您在上半年看到的這些利用率逆風的原因嗎？這也是你所看到的嗎？

And I guess some of the -- I guess the concern, which is reflected in the stock prices over the past three to four months, is that this white space could linger into the second half of next year and maybe even into '26. So could you just talk about your confidence level in rig demand rebounding in '26 after what looks like a pretty big air pocket of demand next year?

我猜想，過去三到四個月的股價反映出的一些擔憂是，這種空白可能會持續到明年下半年，甚至可能持續到 26 年。那麼，您能否談談您對 26 年鑽機需求反彈的信心水平，因為明年的需求看起來相當大？

Sure. And of course, that's the question on everybody's mind right now. So I would say, they had a little bit of -- I think, opposing forces right now, Eddie, you're right. There's obviously white space in the first half of next year. I think that you listed a couple of reasons, and I think those are certainly explanations for different instances of delay.

當然。當然，這是現在每個人都在思考的問題。所以我想說，他們現在有一點——我認為，對立的力量，艾迪，你是對的。明年上半年顯然有空白。我認為你列出了幾個原因，我認為這些肯定是對不同延遲情況的解釋。

There are other explanations for other instances of delay. But overall, there is a general lack of urgency to drill right now. And that is, I think, driven by this commitment to capital discipline that you mentioned. And I think that explains the multitude of different individual reasons why a project may get pushed to the right very slightly.

對於其他延遲情況還有其他解釋。但整體而言，目前普遍缺乏鑽探的迫切性。我認為，這是由你提到的對資本紀律的承諾所推動的。我認為這解釋了為什麼一個項目可能會被稍微推向右側的眾多不同的個人原因。

But on the other hand, we do see this very large data set of open tenders of FIDs, of Subsea tree orders, a number of different, I call them forward indicators that all suggest that the work is there. Analysis is readily available that shows that the wells that are planned to be drilled are all FID-ed at very low breakeven levels.

但另一方面，我們確實看到了 FID 公開招標、海底樹訂單等非常大的資料集，這些資料集有很多不同的，我稱之為前瞻性指標，所有這些都表明工作已經存在。分析顯示，計畫鑽探的油井均以非常低的損益平衡水準進行 FID 處理。

And I would say that just behind the scenes, and we mentioned it in the prepared remarks, but behind the scenes -- I would say the level of conversation has picked up significantly here in the last couple of months, certainly in the last month. And so, we're seeing a little bit of data, we mentioned on the prepared remarks out there around tendering.

我想說的是，就在幕後，我們在準備好的發言中提到了這一點，但在幕後——我想說，在過去的幾個月裡，尤其是在上個月，對話的水平顯著提高。因此，我們看到了一些數據，我們在有關招標的準備好的評論中提到。

We're seeing conversations pick up, and then, of course, we've got this -- all these things that would suggest that the work is there and coming. So we remain positive and hopeful around the late '25 and '26 improvement.

我們看到對話在增加，然後，當然，我們得到了這個——所有這些都表明工作已經存在並且即將到來。因此，我們對 25 年末和 26 年的改善保持積極和希望。

Got it. That's great to hear. My follow-up is just on your commentary around potentially stacking rigs. You said that if demand doesn't materialize as you expect, you might elect to stack one or more of your 6G units. What are your thoughts at this stage around potentially warm stacking one of your 7G rigs, which we just saw from one of your peers?

知道了。很高興聽到這個消息。我的後續行動只是關於您對潛在的堆疊鑽孔機的評論。您說過，如果需求沒有像您預期的那樣實現，您可能會選擇堆疊一個或多個 6G 單元。我們剛剛從您的一位同行那裡看到了您的 7G 設備，現階段您對此有何想法？

It sounded like based on your commentary on having active discussions on all your 7G rigs that warm stacking wasn't in your plans for next year at this point. But if those conversations don't materialize into contracts, could we potentially see one or maybe two of the 7G rigs potentially warm stack next year as well?

根據您對所有 7G 設備進行積極討論的評論，聽起來好像暖堆疊並不在您明年的計劃中。但如果這些對話沒有落實到合約中，我們是否有可能在明年看到一台或兩台 7G 設備熱堆？

So we're back into this sliding scale of definitions around stack. I would say that we certainly will minimize cost when the outlook doesn't support them. That's just rational business.

所以我們又回到了圍繞堆疊定義的滑動範圍。我想說，當前景不支持它們時，我們當然會最大限度地降低成本。這只是理性的生意。

I would not anticipate that we would take dramatic measures around the seventh generation rig. And if we were to define dramatic, that might be one that would make us less marketable against other working rigs right now.

我預計我們不會針對第七代鑽孔機採取重大措施。如果我們要定義“戲劇性”，那可能會導致我們目前相對於其他工作鑽機的市場競爭力下降。

Kurt Hallead, Benchmark.

庫爾特·哈勒德，基準。

Thanks for all that color. Always appreciate that. So just curious, right, we look out into the back half of next year and into 2026 and things start to look a lot more constructive in terms of contract timing and so on and so forth.

感謝所有這些顏色。永遠欣賞這一點。所以只是好奇，對吧，我們展望明年下半年和 2026 年，在合約時間等方面，事情開始看起來更有建設性。

You indicated an inflection, right, in EBITDA in the back half of the year. Just curious as to what you think that magnitude might begin to look like without giving specifics around guidance.

您指出今年下半年 EBITDA 出現了轉折點，對吧。只是好奇你認為在沒有給出指導細節的情況下，幅度可能會是什麼樣子。

Yes, Kurt, it's a good question. Obviously, we haven't provided specific guidance here for 2025. We'll look to do that as we normally do with our year-end results. Obviously, we talked about the first half of the year being somewhat flat, if you will to Q4, I think one interesting data point is Q3, right, where if you combine Diamond with Noble for the full quarter, EBITDA was closer to $350 million for the quarter, right?

是的，庫爾特，這是個好問題。顯然，我們尚未提供 2025 年的具體指導。我們將像通常處理年終結果一樣這樣做。顯然，我們談到上半年有些持平，如果你願意看第四季度，我認為一個有趣的數據點是第三季度，對吧，如果你將整個季度的 Diamond 和 Noble 合併起來，EBITDA 接近 3.5 億美元本季的，對嗎？

And so there's obviously upside to that as well. So we're talking about a a flat first half of next year and then the inflection from there on could be significant, but obviously, it's subject to winning some of the work that we're going after right now.

所以這顯然也有好處。因此，我們正在談論明年上半年的平穩發展，然後從那時起的變化可能會很大，但顯然，這取決於贏得我們現在正在進行的一些工作。

Yes. I'd love to just add, Kurt, that one of the reasons we -- we considered putting out guidance here, but one of the reasons we elected not to and to stick with our normal cadence of putting it out early next year is because we do have a tremendous amount of work under negotiation right now.

是的。庫爾特，我想補充一點，我們考慮在這裡發布指導的原因之一，但我們選擇不這樣做並堅持明年初發布的正常節奏的原因之一是因為我們現在確實有大量工作正在談判中。

And it felt like the cost benefit of waiting on that was worth it, given just what you're talking about. These outcomes on an individual tender obviously are binary for us. And so we think waiting and seeing how some of this plays out is right before we put any more color than we have here on this call out there.

鑑於您所談論的內容，感覺等待的成本效益是值得的。單一招標的這些結果對我們來說顯然是二元的。因此，我們認為，在我們在此呼籲中添加更多色彩之前，最好先等待並看看其中的一些結果如何。

That's great, I appreciate that. So maybe just another follow-up here, right? You indicated that incremental cash flow will go back to share buybacks and you have the $400 million authorization. I'm just curious now on capital allocation now that you have a little bit more debt on your balance sheet than you've had prior to the acquisition. What's your thought process in terms of cash structure?

太好了，我很感激。所以也許這只是另一個後續行動，對嗎？您表示增量現金流將用於股票回購，並且您擁有 4 億美元的授權。我現在只是對資本配置感到好奇，因為你的資產負債表上的債務比收購前多了一點。您在現金結構上的思考過程是怎麼樣的？

Yes, we're happy with where we sit today on the cap structure, and we plan to continue, obviously, the dividend, as mentioned. And then from there, we're looking to supplement with share repurchases as there's excess free cash flow.

是的，我們對今天的上限結構感到滿意，顯然，我們計劃繼續派發股息，如上所述。然後，由於自由現金流過剩，我們希望透過股票回購來補充。

Greg Lewis, BTIG.

格雷格·劉易斯，BTIG。

I hope you're doing well on this fine morning. I did have a question around the jack-up fleet. Clearly, you guys have a very core position in the North Sea with the higher end CJ70s, CJ50s. And then you have a couple of rigs scattered around the rest of the world.

我希望你在這個美好的早晨一切順利。我確實有一個關於自升式船隊的問題。顯然，你們在北海擁有非常核心的地位，擁有更高階的CJ70、CJ50。然後你就有一些分散在世界其他地方的鑽孔機。

As we think about the jack-up market, and it seems like there continue to be buyers and companies looking to get more international, migrating from Middle East positions abroad. Is that something where we could see Noble maybe hunker down in its core North Sea market and opportunistically tear off some of the -- hey, they're good quality premium jack-ups, but maybe they're non-core to the strategy going forward?

當我們考慮自升式鑽井平台市場時，似乎仍然有買家和公司尋求更國際化，從中東的位置遷移到國外。我們是否可以看到來寶可能會在其核心的北海市場紮根，並機會主義地剝離一些——嘿，它們是優質的優質自升式鑽井平台，但也許它們不是戰略的核心向前？

Yes. Look, I think we're where we've always been. I would reiterate that while at this point, some of the jack-ups do seem more scattered globally outside of the North Sea.

是的。聽著，我想我們還是原來的樣子。我要重申的是，目前一些自升式鑽井平台似乎確實更加分散在北海以外的全球。

They're certainly not inefficient. They're producing cash flow. And as you say, they're good rigs with great crews and good customer, great customers. And so we have no urgency or motivation to do something.

他們當然不是低效率的。他們正在產生現金流。正如你所說，它們是優秀的鑽孔機，擁有優秀的船員和優秀的客戶，優秀的客戶。所以我們沒有緊迫感或動力去做某事。

But I think we've shown through history that we're going to make rational business decision when one comes in front of us there. And so to the extent that, that is the right thing for our shareholders, then we, of course, would consider if there's a strategic move there.

但我認為，歷史已經證明，當有人出現在我們面前時，我們將做出理性的商業決策。因此，如果這對我們的股東來說是正確的事情，那麼我們當然會考慮是否有策略性舉措。

Okay. And then just following up on the questions around -- and you Robert, you mentioned that there's, I guess, the sliding scale of stacking. And obviously, I don't think we're going to cold stack any of the seventh gen rigs.

好的。然後繼續跟進周圍的問題 - 你羅伯特，你提到了，我猜，堆疊的滑動比例。顯然，我認為我們不會冷堆任何第七代設備。

But any rough estimates on terms of maybe cost savings around that, i.e., I guess if we were to think about a rig operating at seventh gen cost maybe $150, $160, if we don't see opportunities for work for -- I don't -- whatever the number is, it's probably not 90 days.

但任何關於可能節省成本的粗略估計，即，我想如果我們考慮以第七代運行的鑽機成本可能為 150 美元、160 美元，如果我們看不到工作機會——我不認為t——無論數字是多少，可能都不是90 天。

But if it's three to four quarters, any -- I don't need a number maybe on a percentage basis, how much can we shave off of that cost just as we think about those opportunities for those -- not a handful, but those three or four seventh gen rigs that may not get work until the back half of the year.

但如果是三到四個季度，任何——我不需要一個可能以百分比為基礎的數字，我們可以削減多少成本，就像我們考慮那些機會——不是少數，而是那些三到四台第七代鑽機可能要到今年下半年才能投入使用。

Yes. Let me do this, Greg. Let me give you a couple of the points on the sliding scale might be helpful. So you mentioned full working OpEx, and I would say that that scale slides down to around $40,000 to $50,000 per day before you need to go into a preservation type stack, a cold stack to reduce costs from there.

是的。讓我來做吧，格雷格。讓我給你一些關於滑動尺度的要點可能會有所幫助。所以你提到了全面運作的營運支出，我想說的是，在你需要進入保存型堆疊（冷堆疊）以降低成本之前，這一規模會下降到每天 40,000 到 50,000 美元左右。

And so, there's -- depending on the region, depending on where you can stack the rig, there's a lot of different variables along that that would determine where you end along that scale. But I think those are probably the endpoints, if that's helpful.

因此，根據地區、根據您可以堆疊裝備的位置，有很多不同的變數將決定您在該規模上的結束位置。但我認為如果有幫助的話，這些可能就是終點。

(Operator Instructions) Fredrik Stene, Clarksons Securities.

（操作員指示）Fredrik Stene，克拉克森證券。

Hope you are well, and thanks for the detailed prepared remarks. I think it's been slightly touched upon already, but I was -- that you're seeing more and more opportunities in the market and that you had -- I understood, particularly over the last month, a good chunk of discussions that could end up in more work that would help utilization from the latter part of 2025.

希望您一切順利，並感謝您詳細準備的發言。我認為這已經被稍微觸及了，但我——你看到市場上越來越多的機會，而且你——我理解，特別是在上個月，大量的討論可能最終會結束開展更多工作，有助於2025 年下半年的利用。

Are you able to share some additional color in terms of geography? Where are you seeing these opportunities? Are there any regions that you're particularly optimistic about, and also, if you can share some light on key regions, not necessarily only in 2025, but also in '26 and 2027 to get the perspective of the longevity of it all.

能分享一些地理上的額外色彩嗎？您在哪裡看到這些機會？有沒有您特別看好的地區？

Sure. There's the answer is that there's not a whole lot of interesting color to provide there. There are opportunities globally. They are more abundant in the Golden Triangle. And honestly, not a whole lot has changed from color we've given previously where the US is definitely more flattish.

當然。答案是那裡沒有提供很多有趣的顏色。全球都有機會。它們在金三角地區更為豐富。老實說，與我們之前給出的顏色相比，美國肯定更平坦。

And then we see more growth in South America, particularly CARICOM and then West Africa with a smattering of other incremental opportunities outside of the Golden Triangle. I think in the key regions, honestly, are the same as well. You've got -- for '26 and '27 to your question, I mean, you've got Suriname coming online, I think, in earnest.

然後我們看到南美洲有更多的成長，特別是加勒比共同體，然後是西非，在金三角之外還有一些其他增量機會。老實說，我認為在關鍵地區也是一樣的。對於'26和'27你的問題，我的意思是，你已經讓蘇利南上線了，我想，是認真的。

You have a number of opportunities up and down the West African coast, eventually Mozambique on the East African coast in that time frame. And I guess I should have called out Namibia more specifically on the West, but not a whole lot of change from what we've seen and forecasted.

您在西非海岸上下有很多機會，最終在這段時間內在東非海岸的莫三比克。我想我應該在西方方面更具體地指出納米比亞，但與我們所看到和預測的情況相比，情況並沒有太大變化。

So we're probably more focused on tracking to make sure that these things actually come through in the time line that we're hoping than tracking any meaningful changes in where they might occur.

因此，我們可能更專注於跟踪，以確保這些事情確實在我們希望的時間線上完成，而不是跟踪它們可能發生的任何有意義的變化。

No, that's helpful, nonetheless. Also, since you're a mixed player with floaters and jack-ups, have anything, call it, changed lately in how you would rank the different segments against each other?

不，儘管如此，這還是有幫助的。另外，由於您是混合型玩家，擁有漂浮物和自升式浮球，最近您對不同細分市場的排名有什麼變化嗎？

Are you more confident about floaters than you currently are about jack-ups, et cetera? Any thinking you can provide around how you weigh the two on a relative basis given your market and market outlook?

您對浮式浮標是否比目前對自升式鑽井平台等更有信心？考慮到您的市場和市場前景，您可以就如何在相對基礎上權衡兩者提供任何想法嗎？

Yes, I mean we've -- our growth has been more focused on floaters, obviously. And we've seen a lot of upside in that market in certainly continue to see that, particularly at current valuations. The news cycle has been much more negative around jack-ups here recently than floaters.

是的，我的意思是，顯然，我們的成長更加關注飛蚊症。我們已經看到該市場有很大的上漲空間，並且肯定會繼續看到這一點，特別是按照目前的估值。最近有關自升式鑽井平台的新聞比浮動式鑽井平台的負面消息要多得多。

I don't know if trading has matched that as much, but I would say that there's probably more market concern on the jack-up side recently. However, if you look at numbers, numbers have really held up quite well in the jack-up space, that may be due to a larger total denominator there. But utilization is still up above 90%, 93%, I think we quoted.

我不知道交易是否與此相符，但我想說，最近市場對自升式鑽井平台的擔憂可能更多。然而，如果你看一下數字，你會發現自升式鑽井平台上的數字確實保持得很好，這可能是因為那裡的總分母更大。但利用率仍然高於 90%、93%，我想我們有引用過。

And so, we're looking closely at reactions to the North Sea. Like I said, we have some early indications, but it's really -- it's a little too early to tell what direction probably 2025 takes in the North Sea. And so we're watching that very closely. And then we've, of course, said probably all the color we can and have on the floater market where we're hopeful.

因此，我們正在密切關注人們對北海的反應。就像我說的，我們有一些早期跡象，但現在判斷 2025 年北海可能的走向還為時過早。所以我們正在密切關注這一點。當然，我們已經說了我們可以在浮動市場上擁有的所有顏色，我們對此充滿希望。

Yes. Just a final super quick one. On the integration work with Diamond, you have a target of $100 million, if I remember correctly, 75% done within a year. Do you see, at this point, chances that you'll actually get more synergies out of it than the $100 million you're budgeting?

是的。只是最後一個超快的。在與 Diamond 的整合工作中，你們的目標是 1 億美元，如果我沒記錯的話，一年內完成 75%。您認為此時您是否有可能真正從中獲得比您預算的 1 億美元更多的綜效？

Yes, Fredrik, there's obviously a good chance that that's the case. Obviously, in the Maersk transaction, we announced $125 million and then it increased that after about a year to $150 million. So I would say that the integration is progressing as expected, and there's definitely opportunities to increase -- to achieve more than $100 million of total synergies here.

是的，弗雷德里克，顯然情況很有可能是這樣。顯然，在馬士基交易中，我們宣布了 1.25 億美元，然後大約一年後增加到 1.5 億美元。因此，我想說，整合正在按預期進行，並且肯定有機會增加，以實現超過 1 億美元的總協同效應。

David Smith, Pickering Energy Partners.

大衛史密斯，皮克林能源合作夥伴。

I was glad to hear about the active conversations for the Discoverer and the Deliverer. I'm curious about the Developer though, which I think last worked in September '23. Could you talk about your outlook for that rig and what the operating costs look like during this extended idle period? I'm guessing that could be lower than an idle seventh gen drillship?

我很高興聽到發現者和交付者的積極對話。不過，我對開發人員很好奇，我認為開發人員最後一次工作是在 23 年 9 月。您能否談談對該鑽機的展望以及在這段長時間閒置期間的營運成本是多少？我猜這可能比閒置的第七代鑽井船低？

Yes. So we've -- you all fill in. We have moved to minimize costs on there. And I would say as well that we lump all of the D rigs into the same outlook. And so I think we've got a number of leads. We will continue -- we will obviously have quite -- we have had quite space, and that will continue.

是的。所以我們——你們都填寫。我們已採取行動盡量減少那裡的成本。我還要說的是，我們將所有 D 鑽機歸為同一前景。所以我認為我們有很多線索。我們將繼續——顯然我們將擁有相當大的空間——我們已經擁有了相當大的空間，而且這種情況將繼續下去。

And no change around the color we've given around first half of 2025. But from there, there seem to be a number of additional opportunities starting in late '25 and then probably also later in '26.

我們在 2025 年上半年左右給出的顏色沒有變化。但從那時起，從 25 年末開始，可能會在 26 年晚些時候開始，似乎會有許多額外的機會。

Yes. And Dave, from a cost perspective right now, think about that in the $100,000 a day range from an OpEx perspective.

是的。Dave，現在從成本角度來看，從營運支出的角度考慮每天 10 萬美元的範圍。

I'm sorry, for the Developer, that operating cost per day is --

抱歉，對開發商來說，每天的營運成本是--

Yes. Correct. Well, yes -- sorry. Yes. So essentially think about the scale from fully operating it, call it, close to a $150,000 down to the more washed backed numbers.

是的。正確的。嗯，是的——抱歉。是的。因此，從根本上考慮從全面運營它（稱之為接近 150,000 美元）到更受洗的支持數字的規模。

Yes. And a quick follow-up, if I may. Just wanted to circle back to your comments about the Globetrotter rigs being in active conversations for well intervention work. I wanted to make sure I understood correctly. Are you seeing potential demand to keep both the rigs working in '25? And would you expect those to stay in the gulf?

是的。如果可以的話，請快速跟進。只是想回顧一下您對 Globetrotter 鑽機正在積極對話以進行油井幹預工作的評論。我想確保我理解正確。您是否看到了在 25 年保持兩台鑽機正常運作的潛在需求？你會希望那些人留在海灣嗎？

Yes. So there's work globally. I would say, there's probably a higher focus in the US Gulf right now. Yes, that we are talking about both rigs. Again, we're not talking about first half '25.

是的。因此，全球範圍內都有工作。我想說，目前美國海灣地區可能受到更多關注。是的，我們正在談論這兩種裝備。再說一遍，我們不是在談論 25 年上半年。

But we are talking about active conversations to the extent that -- and historically, intervention in P&A tends to be more susceptible to moving to the right even than drilling, which has been obviously shown a propensity for that here recently.

但我們談論的是積極的對話，從歷史上看，對 P&A 的干預往往比鑽探更容易向右移動，最近顯然已經顯示出這種傾向。

But that said, if it becomes obvious that, that's more of a one-rig market than two, then we said in the prepared remarks then we'll take appropriate action quickly.

但話雖如此，如果很明顯，這更像是單一鑽孔機市場而不是兩個鑽孔機市場，那麼我們在準備好的評論中表示，我們將迅速採取適當的行動。

At this time, there are no further questions. I would now hand today's call back over to the presenters for any closing remarks.

目前，沒有其他問題了。現在我將把今天的電話轉交給主持人進行總結演講。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today, and we will look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Have a good day.

感謝大家今天加入我們，我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。