Noble Corporation PLC (NE) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Noble Corporation Q4 earnings call.

感謝您的支持，歡迎參加 Noble Corporation 第四季財報電話會議。

I would now like to welcome Ian McPherson, Vice President of Investor Relations to begin the call. Ian, over to you.

現在我歡迎投資者關係副總裁 Ian McPherson 開始電話會議。伊恩，交給你了。

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to Noble Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2023 earnings conference call. You can find a copy of our earnings report along with the supporting statements and schedules on our website at noblecorp.com. This conference call will be accompanied by a slide presentation that you can also find located at the Investor Relations section of our website.

謝謝業者，歡迎大家參加 Noble Corporation 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。您可以在我們的網站 Nobelcorp.com 上找到我們的收益報告副本以及支援報表和時間表。本次電話會議將附有幻燈片簡報，您也可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到該幻燈片簡報。

Today's call will feature prepared remarks from our President and CEO, Robert Eifler, as well as our CFO, Richard Barker. Also joining on the call are Blake Denton, Senior Vice President of Marketing and Contracts, [Angelika Larg] Senior Vice President of Operations.

今天的電話會議將由我們的總裁兼執行長 Robert Eifler 以及我們的財務長 Richard Barker 發表準備好的演講。參加電話會議的還有行銷與合約資深副總裁 Blake Denton、營運資深副總裁 [Angelika Larg]。

During the course of this call, we may make certain forward-looking statements regarding various matters related to our business and companies that are not historical facts. Such statements are based upon current expectations and assumptions of management and are therefore subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Many factors could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements, and Noble does not assume any obligation to update these statements.

在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會就與我們的業務和公司相關的各種事項做出某些非歷史事實的前瞻性陳述。此類陳述是基於管理層目前的預期和假設，因此存在一定的風險和不確定性。許多因素可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異，來寶不承擔任何更新這些陳述的義務。

Also note, we are referencing non-GAAP financial measures. On the call today, you will find the required supplemental disclosure for these measures, including the most directly comparable GAAP measure and an associated reconciliation in our earnings report issued yesterday and filed with the SEC with that, I'll now turn the call over to Robert Eifler, President and CEO of Noble.

另請注意，我們引用的是非公認會計準則財務指標。在今天的電話會議上，您會發現這些措施所需的補充披露，包括最直接可比的 GAAP 措施以及我們昨天發布並向 SEC 提交的收益報告中的相關調節表，我現在將電話轉交給羅伯特·艾佛勒(Robert Eifler)，來寶公司總裁兼執行長。

Good morning. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call today. I'll begin with opening remarks on our results in commercial activity and then provide some market outlook commentary before passing the call to Richard to discuss the financials after our prepared remarks, we look forward to taking your questions.

早安.歡迎大家，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。我將首先對我們的商業活動結果進行開場發言，然後提供一些市場前景評論，然後在我們準備好的發言後將電話轉給理查德討論財務狀況，我們期待回答您的問題。

The team delivered another solid operational quarter with Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $201 million, bringing full year adjusted EBITDA to the upper end of the guidance range and Q4 free cash flow of $165 million, excluding asset sale proceeds, which also punctuated a good free cash flow contribution for the full year. These fourth quarter results were achieved despite later than expected contract commencements for both the Globetrotter one and the Intrepid due to delays related to weather and permitting issues. So otherwise, we saw very strong uptime and cost of running the heavy lifting associated with our merger integration is now substantially behind us, and our offshore teams continue to execute at a high level to perform safe and efficient drilling operations for our customers around the world. Our Board declared a $0.4 dividend for the first quarter of 2024, consistent with last quarter and we also repurchased $15 million of shares in Q4. This brings total capital return to shareholders since the Q4 2022 merger close through the first quarter of 2024 to $337 million. As previously stated, you can expect mobile to continue to prioritize the return of the substantial majority of free cash flow to shareholders going forward. Between dividends and buybacks, which we recognize as a top priority for investors and one of the key pillars of our First Choice offshore ambition, our outlook for our business over the next several years continues to look very promising, especially on the deepwater side, notwithstanding some lingering whitespace confronting a handful of rigs over the near term, despite a recent short-term downtick in the number of deepwater contract awards industry wide during the fourth quarter, we have been pleased to announce several contract fixtures since late December that have meaningfully augmented our 2024 backlog. As I list these here in a moment, I'll just say that we consider all of these recent fixtures to represent current market pricing. Although we are only disclosing day rates for customer approvals will allow us to do so.

該團隊再次實現了穩健的營運季度，第四季度調整後EBITDA 為2.01 億美元，使全年調整後EBITDA 達到指導範圍的上限，第四季度自由現金流為1.65 億美元（不包括資產出售收益） ，這也打破了良好的自由現金流全年貢獻。儘管由於天氣和許可問題導致的延誤，環球旅行號和無畏號的合約開始時間晚於預期，但第四季度的業績還是實現了。因此，除此之外，我們看到與合併整合相關的繁重工作的正常運行時間和成本現在已大大過去，我們的離岸團隊繼續高水準執行，為世界各地的客戶執行安全且高效的鑽井作業。我們的董事會宣布 2024 年第一季股利為 0.4 美元，與上季一致，我們也在第四季回購了 1500 萬美元的股票。這使得自 2022 年第四季合併以來截至 2024 年第一季股東的總資本回報達到 3.37 億美元。如前所述，您可以預期移動將繼續優先考慮未來將大部分自由現金流返還給股東。我們認為股息和回購是投資者的首要任務，也是我們 First Choice 海上雄心的關鍵支柱之一，儘管如此，我們未來幾年的業務前景仍然非常樂觀，尤其是在深水方面儘管第四季度整個行業的深水合約授予數量近期出現短期下降，但短期內少數鑽井平台仍面臨一些揮之不去的空白，我們很高興地宣布自12 月底以來的幾項合約固定裝置，這些合約固定裝置已顯著增加我們2024 年的積壓訂單。當我稍後列出這些時，我只想說我們認為所有這些最近的固定裝置代表了當前的市場定價。儘管我們僅披露日費率以供客戶批准，但我們可以這樣做。

First, the Noble Discoverer was awarded a 400 day contract with Petrobras in Colombia that set to commence in Q2 2024 following the rig's 10-year survey. This contract includes a priced option for an additional 390 days. Next, Sonoco Voyager was awarded a one-well contract plus one option well with Petronas in Suriname that commenced earlier this month with an estimated firm duration of 130 days plus a 70 day option. So the Voyager is now firmly booked into June with the option period extending into August of this year or next, Noble Valiant received the six month extension from a log in the US Gulf of Mexico, extending that engagement from July into January next year. This day rate remains at $470,000, excluding additional fees for the use of managed pressure drilling for next, the Noble Jerry de Souza received a nine month extension with Total Energies in Nigeria, continuing the program out to November 2024 place within the floater fleet, both of the Globetrotter drillship ongoing contracts with Shell in the Gulf of Mexico have been extended into early May. And then on the jackup side, the Noble Intrepid had an option exercised by Harbour Energy for a well intervention program in the UK North Sea, which commenced in January at a dayrate of $120,000. This job started a few weeks later than planned due to challenging weather conditions. Also, the Noble innovator received a one-well extension. It's estimated 90 day duration from BP at a day rate of $140,000 scheduled to commence in September 2024 BP, subsequent priced options on innovator have been restructured into smaller components, which if fully exercised, would extend into Q2 2026.

首先，Noble Discoverer 與哥倫比亞 Petrobras 簽訂了一份為期 400 天的合同，該合約將於 2024 年第二季度開始，此前該鑽機進行了 10 年調查。該合約包括額外 390 天的定價選項。接下來，Sonoco Voyager 獲得了蘇利南 Petronas 的一份單井合約和一份選擇權井合同，該合約於本月初開始，預計固定期限為 130 天，外加一份 70 天的選擇權。因此，Voyager 目前已被牢牢預訂至6 月，選擇期延長至今年或明年8 月，Noble Valiant 獲得了美國墨西哥灣一艘原木的六個月延期，將預訂期從7 月延長至明年1 月。當日費率保持在470,000 美元，不包括使用管理壓力鑽井的額外費用，Noble Jerry de Souza 與尼日利亞Total Energies 獲得了為期九個月的延期，將該計劃繼續到2024 年11 月在浮式船隊中的位置，兩者Globetrotter 鑽井船與殼牌在墨西哥灣正在進行的合約已延長至 5 月初。然後在自升式鑽井平台方面，Noble Intrepid 擁有 Harbour Energy 在英國北海實施油井幹預計畫的選擇權，該計畫於 1 月開始，日費率為 12 萬美元。由於天氣條件惡劣，這項工作比計劃晚了幾週開始。此外，Noble 創新者還獲得了單井擴展。預計BP 的持續時間為90 天，日費率為140,000 美元，計劃於2024 年9 月開始BP，創新者的後續定價選擇權已重組為較小的組成部分，如果完全行使，將延續到2026 年第二季。

And finally, the Noble. Resolute has recently received an additional 60 days with Petrobras at $145,000 per day scheduled to begin in March 2025 and direct continuation of the rig's existing backlog. Collectively, these recent fixtures contribute an additional firm backlog value of $515 million, excluding mobilization, MPD revenue and option periods, our total backlog currently stands at $4.6 billion, essentially flat versus last quarter. However, excluding the six rigs we have operating under long-term contracts in Guyana and Norway, which don't typically replenish backlog frequently. The remaining backlog across our other 23 marketed rigs actually increased by 10% over the past three months. Richard will go into the guidance in a few minutes but as a quick preface, 92% of our midpoint, 2024 EBITDA expectation is supported by firm backlog currently as reflected on our new fleet status sheet. The remaining 2024 or [five] space for Noble's floaters sits mostly now with the two Globetrotter drillship and the six gen semi level developments. These three units are being marketed for both spot work and longer-term opportunities, although practically speaking, the near term opportunity set is more focused around short term spot work.

最後是貴族。Resolute 最近以每天 145,000 美元的價格與巴西國家石油公司獲得了額外 60 天的使用期限，計劃於 2025 年 3 月開始，並直接延續該鑽機現有的積壓訂單。總的來說，這些最近的固定項目為公司帶來了5.15 億美元的額外積壓訂單價值，不包括動員、MPD 收入和期權期，我們的積壓訂單總額目前為46 億美元，與上季度基本持平。然而，不包括我們在圭亞那和挪威根據長期合約運營的六座鑽井平台，這些鑽井平台通常不會經常補充積壓訂單。過去三個月，我們其他 23 台銷售鑽孔機的剩餘積壓實際上增加了 10%。理查德將在幾分鐘內介紹該指導意見，但作為一個簡短的前言，我們的2024 年EBITDA 預期中位數的92% 得到了目前穩定的積壓訂單的支持，正如我們新的機隊狀態表所反映的那樣。剩餘的 2024 年或 [5] 個用於 Noble 浮標的空間現在主要用於兩艘 Globetrotter 鑽井船和六代半級開發項目。這三個單位正在針對現貨工作和長期機會進行行銷，儘管實際上，短期機會集更側重於短期現貨工作。

One additional update that I like to call out on the fleet status is the revised timing of the estimated contract commencement for the Noble phaco, Zach in Brazil, which had slipped from a prior estimate of March through a current estimate of July first. The original driver of this delay was the rig's preceding contract with analog in the Gulf of Mexico running about 30 days longer than initially expected, which impacted our planning and preparation time line for the Petrobras work. Subsequently, the shipyard program for the cause XSPS. and contract preparation is unfortunately taking longer than planned, primarily due to protracted delivery lead times from some critical equipment shifts. These delays have been exacerbated by the disruption of global shipping channels, but we're doing everything we can to complete this major project and get to work with Petrobras by midyear.

我想指出的關於船隊狀況的另一項更新是巴西 Zach 號 Noble phaco 的估計合約開始時間的修訂時間，該時間已從之前的 3 月估計推遲到目前的 7 月 1 日估計。造成這一延誤的最初原因是該鑽井平台之前與墨西哥灣的 Analog 簽訂的合約比最初預期的時間長了約 30 天，這影響了我們對巴西國家石油公司工作的規劃和準備時間。隨後，造船廠計劃引發XSPS。不幸的是，合約準備時間比計劃的要長，這主要是由於一些關鍵設備班次導致的交付週期延長。全球運輸管道的中斷加劇了這些延誤，但我們正在盡一切努力完成這項重大項目，並在年中之前與巴西國家石油公司合作。

Now turning to the broader industry outlook, I'd like to go through our semi annual review of the global deepwater market supply and demand picture overall, we continue to see very encouraging indicators for continued steady growth in the offshore drilling markets. Offshore upstream CapEx is expected to be up again by a low to mid double digit percentage this year. And I would mention here that while Noble's 2024 revenue outlook is somewhat more muted in this range, this is due to a heavy slate and scheduled maintenance and contract preparation related to downtime across our fleet, which is more heavily weighted to the first half of the year, whereas we expect to be comping much better on an annual top-line growth rate basis in the second half of this year. Additionally, various other leading indicators from subsea tree orders to offshore FIDs and international license bid rounds are all flashing green for the 24 to 26 visible horizon, assuming in on the EDW market, 2023 average contracted demand of 91 rigs was up nine rigs or 11% over the 2022 average with current contracted demands of 92 rigs, representing 95% effective utilization of the immediately marketable fleet following 15 drillship reactivations in 2022 that have been completed or are still underway. There now remain 7 to 10 viable high-spec seventh generation drillships and sideline capacity, including cold stacked and shipyard assets. These sidelined rigs have capital requirements of $100 million to over $300 million per rig with minimum one year reactivation lead times to deploy. We continue to expect the majority of these including our drillship, the Meltem to be pulled into service over the next couple of years based on expected demand levels at which point high NUDW. capacity would be fully exhausted. Perhaps the most striking statistics that we observe today relates to the sharp inflection in open demand for floaters. The current tally of public tenders and three tenders represents 108 rig years of open floater demand. This figure is up by over 50% compared to last year and is also at a decade high by a wide margin Additionally, the average duration of each job opportunity within this 108 rig years of open demand is now 18 months, which is up 40% versus a year ago. And 70% higher than the prior 5-year average lease statistics on open demand, by the way have been updated since taking the total 10 new drillship job off the board. This represents an important step change in longer-term visibility for our business. I would also mention that measurable open demand and public tenders is not by any means a complete picture in Novell's case specifically. In fact, the vast majority of floater backlog that we have booked over the past several years has come via direct awards and extensions rather than from public tenders that these aforementioned steps described looking out over the next one to two years. We see late in UDW. demand growth of 10 or more rigs. Again, similar to the number of remaining rigs and sideline supply. However, between here and there, we do expect the combination of supply constraints and perfect alignment between rig availabilities and demand requirements to result in some continued utilization inefficiencies over the near term. Overall, this results in a generally firm, but balanced market until the sidelined capacity is substantially absorbed as opposed to a scarcity situation. But certainly with opportunities for situational pricing increases along the way, which is similar to the dynamic that we've seen in recent months.

現在轉向更廣泛的行業前景，我想回顧一下我們對全球深水市場供需情況的半年度回顧，我們繼續看到海上鑽井市場持續穩定增長的非常令人鼓舞的指標。預計今年海上上游資本支出將再次以低至中兩位數的百分比成長。我要在這裡提到的是，雖然來寶2024 年的收入前景在這個範圍內更加黯淡，但這是由於與我們機隊停機時間相關的大量石板和定期維護和合同準備，這對上半年的權重更大今年，我們預計今年下半年的年度營收成長率會更好。此外，假設在EDW 市場，2023 年91 座鑽井平台的平均合約需求將增加9 座或11 座，從海底採油樹訂單到海上FID 和國際許可證投標輪次等各種其他領先指標在24 至26個可見視野內都呈綠色閃爍。目前合約需求為92 座鑽井平台，較2022 年平均高出%，這意味著在2022 年15 艘鑽井船重新啟用（已完成或仍在進行中）後，立即可銷售船隊的有效利用率為95%。目前仍有 7 至 10 艘可行的高規格第七代鑽井船和副業產能，包括冷堆和造船廠資產。這些閒置鑽機的資本需求為每台鑽孔機 1 億至 3 億美元以上，重新啟動的部署時間至少為一年。我們仍然預計，根據預計的需求水準（此時 NUDW 較高），包括我們的鑽井船 Meltem 在內的大多數將在未來幾年內投入使用。容量將完全耗盡。也許我們今天觀察到的最引人注目的統計數據與流動資金的公開需求的急劇變化有關。目前公開招標和三項招標的統計代表了 108 個鑽機年度的開放浮式平台需求。這一數字比去年增長了 50% 以上，也大幅創十年新高。此外，在這 108 個鑽機年的開放需求中，每個工作機會的平均持續時間現在為 18 個月，增長了 40%與一年前相比。順便說一句，自從取消總共 10 艘新鑽井船工作以來，開放需求的平均租賃統計數據比之前 5 年平均租賃統計數據高出 70%。這代表了我們業務長期可見度的重要一步變化。我還要提到的是，可衡量的公開需求和公開招標絕不是 Novell 案例的完整情況。事實上，我們在過去幾年中預訂的絕大多數浮動浮動訂單積壓都是透過直接授予和延期來的，而不是透過上述步驟描述的未來一到兩年的公開招標。我們在 UDW 看到晚了。 10 台或更多鑽孔機的需求成長。同樣，剩餘鑽機數量和副業供應也類似。然而，我們確實預計，供應限制以及鑽機可用性和需求要求之間的完美結合將在短期內導致一些持續的利用效率低下。整體而言，這會導致市場整體堅挺但平衡，直到觀望產能被大量吸收，而不是出現稀缺情況。但當然，隨著情況定價的機會不斷增加，這與我們最近幾個月看到的動態類似。

From a geographic perspective, the fulcrum of demand strength through UDW. rigs continues to be South America and Africa, primarily starting with South America. There are currently 29 new DW. floaters under contract in Brazil with a further six units contracted to start up over the course of 2024. Petrobras currently has open demand for five rigs on 2.5 to 3 year contracts with 2025 start dates. Although these five tenders appear likely to be more renewals against expiring contracts and incremental units, Guyana remains a core market for Noble for activity remains at six UDW. rigs, including four of our drillships. Of course, we have not experienced any change or interruption in operating conditions in Guyana over the past few months following Venezuela's territorial challenge over the SKU by region, nor do we anticipate any likely disruption in the background. It has been encouraging to see a successful bid round in Guyana recently with offers on eight of 14 blocks in contracts expected to be finalized now sit, which could be supportive of additional activity outside of the Scarborough field in the years ahead, Ternium has vacillated between zero and three deepwater rigs in recent years and has recently increased backlog to one rig within Noble Voyager's startup with Petronas exploration activity in both the shallow and deepwater could support modest incremental demand and serve them throughout 24 and 2025 call FID for the country, its first major field development represents an additional demand for two floaters on multiyear contracts expected to commence in 2026. Colombia will similarly soon be back up from zero to one deepwater rig with the commencement next quarter of Noble discovers 400 day contract and there's a handful of additional potential exploration wells with other operators that could materialize for an additional unit of demand in Colombia over the next one to two years.

從地域角度看，需求強度的支點是透過UDW。鑽井平台仍位於南美洲和非洲，主要從南美洲開始。目前有 29 個新 DW。巴西已簽訂合同，另有 6 個機組已簽訂合同，將於 2024 年啟動。巴西國家石油公司目前對五台鑽井平台有開放需求，合約為期 2.5 至 3 年，起始日期為 2025 年。儘管這五次招標似乎可能是針對即將到期的合約和增量單位的更多續簽，但圭亞那仍然是來寶的核心市場，因為活動仍保持在六個 UDW。鑽井平台，包括我們的四艘鑽井船。當然，在委內瑞拉對 SKU 按地區提出領土挑戰後的幾個月裡，我們在圭亞那的營運條件沒有發生任何變化或中斷，我們也預計不會出現任何可能的中斷。令人鼓舞的是，最近在圭亞那成功進行了一輪競標，預計目前將敲定的合約中的14 個區塊中的8 個已出價，這可能會支持未來幾年斯卡伯勒油田以外的更多活動，Ternium 一直在近年來，Noble Voyager 的深水鑽井平台積壓量增加到0 座和3 座，最近在國油淺水和深水勘探活動中，積壓的鑽井平台數量增加到1 座，可以支援適度的增量需求，並在24 日和2025 年期間為這些需求提供服務，這是該國的第一個FID主要油田開發意味著對預計於2026 年開始的多年期合約中的兩艘浮式平台的額外需求。隨著Noble 發現400 天合約下個季度開始，哥倫比亞也將很快從零個深水鑽井平台恢復到一個，並且與其他運營商還有一些額外的潛在勘探井，這些井可能會在接下來的時間內在哥倫比亞實現額外的需求單位一到兩年。

Moving to West Africa utilization is 100% on 18, regionally marketed floaters, including seven in Gallup, four in Namibia and three in Nigeria. West Africa is a region with particularly strong demand visibility with current tenders and three tenders representing 20 rig years of demand, including for unique multiyear rig requirements with late 2024 through 2025, targeted start dates, all of this again is net of the total 10-year job that has just recently come off the board. Overall, we believe West Africa could grow to 21 to 22 floaters over the next year. This does not factor in any potential rig adds in Mozambique, which could represent two to three additional units of multi-year demand from 2025 and 2026 in the Gulf of Mexico, including the U.S. and Mexico. Deepwater demand has ranged between 22 to 25 rigs over the past couple of years and currently stands at 24 with three idle marketed rigs resulting in 89% utilization. Initial demand is expected to remain approximately flat with some short term variability around contract rollovers. So this is where we are seeing somewhat more white space, particularly among a few of the 60 units. We're optimistic about some opportunities to add additional work this year for all of our Gulf of Mexico rigs. However, the Globetrotter drillship from the developer are likely to experience lower utilization than the rest of our floaters. Outside the Golden Triangle, the Mediterranean and Black Sea are showing a positive uptick in activity with 10 contracted floaters currently up from six throughout the first half of 2023 and regional utilization at 100% with continuing demand strength from Egypt. The Black Sea in Libya activity in this region is expected to range between 10 to 12 floaters throughout 2024 and 25. India has three UDW. drillships currently, although two of these are wrapping up contracts soon and are expected to leave the region. However, despite India shedding a couple of rigs in the near term, the government's recently announced aggressive 5-year investment plan of $67 billion to develop its natural gas resources appears more likely than not to support a revival in floater activity over the next few years.

搬到西非後，18 個區域銷售的漂浮物利用率達到 100%，其中蓋洛普的 7 個、納米比亞的 4 個和尼日利亞的 3 個。西非是一個需求可見度特別強的地區，目前的招標和三項招標代表了 20 個鑽機年的需求，包括 2024 年末至 2025 年獨特的多年鑽機需求、目標開始日期，所有這些又都是 10-最近剛取消的年度工作。總體而言，我們相信西非明年的流動性可能會增加到 21 至 22 個。這還不包括莫三比克任何潛在的鑽井平台增加，這可能意味著從2025年到2026年墨西哥灣（包括美國和墨西哥）的多年需求將增加兩到三個單位。過去幾年，深水鑽機需求量在 22 至 25 台之間，目前為 24 台，其中 3 台閒置銷售鑽孔機，利用率為 89%。預計初始需求將保持大致持平，但合約展期會出現一些短期變化。因此，我們在這裡看到了更多的空白，特別是在 60 個單元中的少數幾個單元中。我們對今年為所有墨西哥灣鑽井平台增加額外工作的機會感到樂觀。然而，開發商的 Globetrotter 鑽井船的利用率可能低於我們其他浮式鑽井船的利用率。在金三角之外，地中海和黑海的活動呈現出積極的成長勢頭，2023 年上半年，合約浮標數量從 6 個增加到 10 個，區域利用率達到 100%，埃及的需求持續強勁。利比亞黑海地區的活動預計在 2024 年至 25 年間將有 10 至 12 個漂浮物。印度有3個UDW。目前，仍有兩艘鑽井船即將完成合同，預計將離開該地區。然而，儘管印度在短期內削減了幾座鑽井平台，但政府最近宣布的 670 億美元的激進 5 年投資計畫似乎更有可能支持未來幾年浮式鑽井活動的復甦。

And then finally, the Asia Pac and Australia region as for units of demand, 100% utilization and a healthy number of short, medium and long term programs on the horizon for late 2024 through 2026, which suggests a potential upward bias to the region.

最後，亞太地區和澳洲地區的需求單位、100%的利用率以及 2024 年底至 2026 年即將推出的大量短期、中期和長期計劃，這表明該地區存在潛在的上行傾向。

So tying all this together, we remain quite optimistic about the upward trajectory of the deepwater market. Demand growth will be linear. Never is and supply constraint is a governing factor as well. But overall, this is a market that should see continued upward pressure on day rates as demand grinds higher. And as the last several units of high end sidelined capacity get absorbed, there will absolutely continue to be bifurcated pricing between the top in the existing rates in the market for some rigs that are being reactivated from sideline into multi-year contracts that's well established and economically predictable. But overall, the trend for both day rates and contract duration is upward now on the jackups, although this is still a smaller percentage of our earnings mix picture for our non Norway, harsh jack-ups continues to quietly improve, especially for mid 2024, all once the Regina, Allen and resilient get back to work. In fact, the steady improvement in market balances and day rates in the North Sea over the past couple of years has been quite a positive and still developing story. Demand in the non Norway North Sea has ranged between 18 and 22 jackups over the past two years and currently stands at 22 with three idle rigs resulting in utilization of 88%. Two of the three idle units are ours. The Noble Highlander and Noble interceptor, both of which have limited 2024 work visibility at this time. But with the overall market firming up from the demand side, Germany dayrates in the North Sea have improved to the $130,000 to $150,000 per day range, up from $100,000 to $135,000 per day a year ago and the goal of $70,000 to $90,000 a day a few years ago, we have decent visibility towards signing up additional backlog at healthy rates. This year. And looking out past 2024, there's interesting demand optionality from additional CCS activity, which has just begun in 23 with our involvement in project Greensand, the Norway jack-up market remains subdued for 2024 with eight rigs of demand compared with historically normalized demand of 11 to 12 jackups, the Noble integrator and level Invincible continued to perform extremely well for Aker BP. We do not envision redeploying of third CJ. 70 rig into Norway before 2025. Although customer dialogue for next year is more constructive than it has been in a while. So we will see how that develops, but we'll certainly be ready and well-positioned with the right assets and team when that demand improvement does materialize. So that's it for the market overview. I would like to turn it to Richard to discuss the financials.

因此，將所有這些結合在一起，我們對深水市場的上升軌跡仍然相當樂觀。需求成長將是線性的。從來都不是，供應限制也是一個主導因素。但整體而言，隨著需求的增加，這個市場應該會面臨日費率持續上行的壓力。隨著最後幾台高端閒置產能的吸收，對於一些正在從閒置重新激活到多年合約的鑽機來說，市場上現有價格的最高價格絕對會繼續存在分歧。經濟上可以預測。但總體而言，自升式鑽井平台的日費率和合約期限均呈上升趨勢，儘管這在我們的非挪威收益組合圖中仍佔較小比例，但嚴酷的自升式鑽井平台繼續悄悄改善，特別是在2024 年中期，一切一旦雷吉娜、艾倫又恢復了工作。事實上，過去幾年北海市場餘額和日費率的穩定改善是一個相當積極且仍在發展的故事。過去兩年，非挪威北海的自升式鑽井平台需求量介於 18 至 22 座之間，目前為 22 座，其中 3 座閒置鑽井平台，利用率為 88%。三個閒置單位中有兩個是我們的。Noble Highlander和Noble攔截機，目前這兩款飛機的2024年工作能見度都有限。但隨著整體市場需求方面的走強，德國北海的日費率已從一年前的每日10萬至13.5萬美元提高至每日13萬至15萬美元，幾年前的目標為每日7萬至9萬美元。幾年前，我們對以健康的價格簽署額外的積壓訂單有良好的了解。今年。展望2024 年，額外的CCS 活動帶來了有趣的需求選擇，隨著我們參與Greensand 項目，這些活動於23 年才開始，挪威自升式鑽井平台市場在2024 年仍處於低迷狀態，需求量為8座鑽井平台，而歷史正常需求為11 座。到 12 座自升式鑽井平台，Noble 積分器和 Invincible 等級繼續為 Aker BP 表現出色。我們不打算重新部署第三個首席聯合官。 2025 年之前將有 70 個鑽井平台進入挪威。儘管明年的客戶對話比以往任何時候都更具建設性。因此，我們將看看情況如何發展，但當需求改善確實實現時，我們肯定會做好準備，並擁有合適的資產和團隊。這就是市場概覽。我想請理查德討論財務問題。

Thank you, Robert, and good morning or good afternoon all in my remarks today, I will briefly review the highlights of our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results before touching on our outlook for 2024, contract drilling services revenue for the fourth quarter totaled $609 million, down from $671 million in the third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $201 million in Q4, down from $283 million in Q3. Cash flow from operations was $287 million. Capital expenditures were $141 million and free cash flow was $165 million. Our full year 2023 results came in towards the high end of our guidance range with full year revenue of $2.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $810 million.

謝謝羅伯特，早安或下午好，在我今天的演講中，我將簡要回顧一下我們第四季度和2023 年全年業績的亮點，然後再談到我們對2024 年的展望，第四季度的合同鑽井服務收入總計609 美元百萬美元，低於第三季的 6.71 億美元。第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.01 億美元，低於第三季的 2.83 億美元。營運現金流為 2.87 億美元。資本支出為 1.41 億美元，自由現金流為 1.65 億美元。我們的 2023 年全年業績接近指引範圍的高端，全年營收為 26 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 8.1 億美元。

Turning back to the fourth quarter. As anticipated, revenue and adjusted EBITDA decreased from third quarter levels due primarily to lower utilization of our floater fleet and market utilization decreased to 75% in the fourth quarter, down from 92% in the third quarter. Scheduled contract gaps with renewable FE Kodak and the Noble Voyager. The delayed start for the Noble Globetrotter one and commercial whitespace for renewable developer were primary contributors to this sequential downtick, which more than offset an increase in average floater day rates from [404,000] per day in Q3, up to [437,000] per day in Q4. Our 13 marketed jackups were utilized 61% in the fourth quarter, consistent with the third quarter, with the average day rate improving to 148,000 in the fourth quarter, up from 141,000 per day in the third quarter. During the fourth quarter, we received cash proceeds of $21 million in the form of a deposit for the sale of the Noble Explorer, which essentially represents the net proceeds to Noble from the sale. We expect to close the sale later in Q1 or Q2 of this year. As summarized on page 5 of the earnings presentation slide. Our total backlog as of February 23rd stands at $4.6 billion. Current backlog includes approximately $1.94 billion that is scheduled for revenue conversion during 2024. As a reminder, our backlog excludes reimbursable revenue as well as revenue from ancillary services. We are firmly into the final stages of integration. We currently have realized nearly $150 million of run rate synergies and are raising our total synergy target from $125 million to $150 million. Both the quantum and the pace of synergy realization have exceeded expectations.

說回第四季。正如預期的那樣，收入和調整後EBITDA 較第三季度水準有所下降，主要是由於我們的浮動船隊利用率較低，並且第四季度市場利用率從第三季度的92% 降至75% 。與可再生 FE 柯達和 Noble Voyager 的預定合約差距。Noble Globetrotter one 的延遲啟動和再生能源開發商的商業空白是造成這一連續下降的主要原因，這足以抵消平均流動性日費率的增長，從第三季度的每天[404,000] 上升到2019 年的每天 [437,000]。Q4。我們銷售的 13 艘自升式鑽井平台第四季度的利用率為 61%，與第三季度持平，平均日利用率從第三季度的每天 141,000 艘升至第四季度的 148,000 艘。第四季度，我們以出售 Noble Explorer 的押金形式收到了 2,100 萬美元的現金收益，這基本上代表了 Noble 出售的淨收益。我們預計將在今年第一季或第二季稍後完成銷售。正如收益簡報投影片第 5 頁所總結的。截至 2 月 23 日，我們的積壓訂單總額為 46 億美元。目前的積壓訂單包括約 19.4 億美元，計劃於 2024 年實現收入轉換。提醒一下，我們的積壓訂單不包括可報銷收入以及輔助服務收入。我們已堅定地進入整合的最後階段。目前，我們已經實現了近 1.5 億美元的運行率協同效應，並將我們的總協同效應目標從 1.25 億美元提高到 1.5 億美元。協同實現的數量和速度都超出了預期。

Referring to page 9 of the earnings slides, we are providing full year 2024 guidance as follows. Total revenue within a range of $2.55 billion to 2.7 billion, which includes a little over $100 million in other revenues such as reimbursable and contract intangibles amortization adjusted EBITDA between $925 million and $1.025 billion. And capital additions, which excludes reimbursements of between $400 million and $440 million. The midpoint of this revenue range is currently 92%, supported by Q1 to date, revenues plus firm backlog for the remainder of the year, excluding options. We currently estimate that a little over 60% of full year adjusted EBITDA will be weighted to the second half of this year. Our jack-up contribution is expected to increase in 2024, going from approximately 10% of our gross margin in 2023 to approximately 15% of our gross margin in 2024.

參考收益投影片第 9 頁，我們提供 2024 年全年指引如下。總收入在 25.5 億美元至 27 億美元之間，其中包括略高於 1 億美元的其他收入，例如可償還和合約無形資產攤銷調整後的 EBITDA，介於 9.25 億美元至 10.25 億美元之間。以及資本增加，其中不包括 4 億至 4.4 億美元的報銷。目前，該收入範圍的中點為 92%，並受到第一季迄今的收入加上今年剩餘時間的堅定積壓訂單（不包括選擇權）的支持。我們目前估計全年調整後 EBITDA 的 60% 以上將計入今年下半年。我們的自升式鑽井平台貢獻預計將在 2024 年增加，從 2023 年毛利率的約 10% 增加到 2024 年毛利率的約 15%。

Second key contract startups are expected to drive an increase in EBITDA in Q3. Notably, the Noble pay come back in to drill the No. one discovery in Colombia and the Noble Regina Allen in Argentina, a key variable to our fourth quarter EBITDA exit rate will be the contribution from the three fixed fee rates that are currently showing quite safe monopoly status report. We currently have active conversations behind each of these available equity rigs and showing up work for these rigs will translate to an annualized adjusted EBITDA exit rate for 2024 at between $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion, assuming our other model assumptions hold. As a reminder, our 2024 CapEx budget reflects both the PC at the [USD10] assets and major projects across our fleet as well as the contract preparation expenditures going to we'll pay Kodak and mobile in February. The scheduling of this year's major projects currently indicate that just over half of our CapEx will be weighted to the first half of the year, some other elements to 2024 to consider AlixPartners. We expect cash taxes in the range of 10% to 12% of adjusted EBITDA and costs to achieve the final synergies related to the Merck transaction expected to taper off approximately $30 million in 2024. Additionally, our guidance reflects mid-single digit percentage inflation rates in 2024 on average across our total cost structure, including OpEx and CapEx. And then finally, we would expect the measure of net working capital build in 2024, driven by both top-line growth and a reversal of some favorable net working capital movements experienced in the fourth quarter. We do expect to see an increase in free cash flow for full year 2024 by 2023. Due to the aforementioned factors, we expect to be modestly free cash flow positive in the first half of 2024 or prior to any capital return to shareholders with nearly all of the free cash flow for the year weighted to the second half as we have said before, we were looking at substantial majority of our free cash flow to shareholders.

第二個關鍵合約新創公司預計將推動第三季 EBITDA 的成長。值得注意的是，Noble 的薪酬回來鑽探哥倫比亞第一大發現和阿根廷的 Noble Regina Allen，我們第四季度 EBITDA 退出率的一個關鍵變量將是目前顯示相當大的三個固定費率的貢獻。安全壟斷狀況報告。目前，我們在每個可用的股權鑽機背後都進行了積極的對話，假設我們的其他模型假設成立，那麼這些鑽機的工作將轉化為2024 年年化調整後EBITDA 退出率在13 億美元至14 億美元之間。提醒一下，我們 2024 年的資本支出預算反映了 [10 美元] 資產的 PC 和我們整個機隊的主要項目，以及我們將在 2 月份向柯達和移動設備支付的合約準備支出。目前，今年主要項目的日程安排表明，我們一半以上的資本支出將集中在今年上半年，其他一些因素將在 2024 年考慮 AlixPartners。我們預計現金稅將佔調整後 EBITDA 的 10% 至 12%，而實現與默克交易相關的最終協同效應的成本預計將在 2024 年減少約 3,000 萬美元。此外，我們的指導反映了 2024 年我們總成本結構（包括營運支出和資本支出）的平均通膨率處於中個位數百分比。最後，我們預期 2024 年淨營運資本的成長將受到營收成長和第四季一些有利的淨營運資本變動逆轉的推動。我們確實預計到 2023 年 2024 年全年自由現金流將會增加。由於上述因素，我們預計 2024 年上半年或在向股東返還任何資本之前，自由現金流將適度為正，正如我們之前所說，今年幾乎所有自由現金流都加權到下半年，我們正在考慮流向股東的大部分自由現金流。

With that, I'll pass the call back to Robert closing remarks.

接下來，我將把電話轉給羅伯特，並作結束語。

Thank you, Richard.

謝謝你，理查。

For just like wrap up here with a tremendous Thank you to Noble employees worldwide who have worked so hard to get the Company to the enviable position in which we find ourselves today, they had a sizable but ultimately an overwhelmingly successful integration effort. Last year, not only have we exceeded our synergy targets, both in terms of pace and size and also we have done some of our continuing to deliver outstanding and safe operations for our customers and strong financial results for investors. But next time we talk to you the book will be closed on integration.

最後，我要向全世界的 Noble 員工表示衷心的感謝，他們辛勤工作，使公司達到了今天令人羨慕的地位，他們進行了大規模但最終取得了壓倒性成功的整合工作。去年，我們不僅在速度和規模方面超越了我們的協同目標，而且我們還繼續為客戶提供出色和安全的運營，並為投資者提供強勁的財務業績。但下次我們與您交談時，這本書將在整合方面結束。

Finally, I will reiterate that the multiyear outlook for our business remains highly encouraging, especially considering the recent inflection in open floater demand visibility for 2025 to 2026 as well as the continuing strong momentum in deepwater FIDs, which underpin longer-term drilling demand and the supportive demand signals are juxtaposed against a diminishing pool of spare rig capacity for Noble. The shape of the year ahead is reminiscent of the past couple of years as we expect to ramp into a meaningful increase in EBITDA from the first half to the second half of this year based on the sequencing of contracts. As this anticipated ramp and EBITDA and free cash flow materializes, you can look for Noble to continue to demonstrate industry leadership with growing capital returns to shareholders, which we see as core to our value proposition for investors.

最後，我要重申，我們業務的多年前景仍然非常令人鼓舞，特別是考慮到最近2025 年至2026 年開放式浮式浮船需求可見度的變化，以及深水FID 的持續強勁勢頭，這支撐了長期鑽井需求和支援需求訊號與來寶的備用鑽孔機容量不斷減少並存。未來一年的情況讓人想起過去幾年，因為我們預計根據合約的順序，今年上半年到下半年 EBITDA 將大幅成長。隨著這一預期成長、EBITDA 和自由現金流的實現，您可以期待來寶繼續展現行業領導地位，為股東帶來不斷增長的資本回報，我們認為這是我們為投資者提供的價值主張的核心。

With that, operator, we're ready now to open up the call for Q&A.

接線員，我們現在就可以開始問答環節了。

The floor is now open for your questions.

現在請大家提問。

To ask a question at this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad.

此時要提問，只需按星號，然後按電話鍵盤上的數字 1 即可。

We ask that you, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up question.

我們要求您只回答一個問題和一個後續問題。

We'll now take a moment to compile our roster. Our first question comes from the line of Greg Lewis with BTIG.

我們現在需要一些時間來編制我們的名單。我們的第一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Greg Lewis。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Yes, thank you, and good morning, everybody, and thanks for taking my questions. On what Robert, on the clearly, there's there's been fits and starts in this market. As I look at the fleet, obviously, there's a lot of them have options attached to it. I mean, a handful of these rigs as we think about some of those options. Any kind of color you can give us in terms of what when those options, when do we find out if those options will be exercised? And then also any kind of rough guidance and how we should be thinking about on at least the price options, what type of step-up, if any, there is on some of those options?

是的，謝謝大家，大家早安，謝謝您回答我的問題。羅伯特，很明顯，這個市場一直時斷時續。當我觀察機隊時，顯然，其中許多都帶有附加選項。我的意思是，當我們考慮其中一些選項時，我們會考慮其中的一些鑽孔機。您可以給我們什麼顏色的訊息，說明這些選項什麼時候執行，我們什麼時候知道這些選項是否會被執行？然後還有任何類型的粗略指導，以及我們應該如何至少考慮價格選項，其中一些選項有什麼類型的升級（如果有）？

Yes, sure. So that the options are tied to different things, I think in the contracts. But I think generally speaking, we tried to provide something like 90 days before the end of a contract, when will understand option pricing. We know ideally, we'd love more than that and sometimes we're able to get it. Sometimes they're tied to and reaching geospatial targets. Sometimes they're tied to end of well, and sometimes they're just tied to timing. So it's kind of hard to give an exact answer. And we have, of course, we've we are giving fewer and fewer priced options. And we have a couple of I think probably the highest profile you should think about maintaining kind of similar market market price levels in option period, although there's a couple of that have a step-up as well.

是的，當然。我認為在合約中，選擇權與不同的事物相關聯。但我認為一般來說，我們試圖在合約結束前提供類似 90 天的信息，以便了解期權定價。我們知道，理想情況下，我們會喜歡更多，有時我們能夠得到它。有時它們與地理空間目標相關聯並達到地理空間目標。有時它們與井的末端相關，有時它們僅與時間相關。所以很難給出準確的答案。當然，我們提供的價格選擇越來越少。我們有一些我認為可能是最引人注目的，您應該考慮在期權期間內維持類似的市場價格水平，儘管其中有一些也有所提高。

Okay, great. And then just as I think about as I think about the North Sea market, you know, we're kind of in a high. So we're kind of being like a transition period.

好的，太好了。然後，正如我思考北海市場一樣，你知道，我們正處於高潮。所以我們有點像是過渡期。

On the floater side, we've seen on some rigs actually exited that market, which looks to be tightening that market on realizing that on CJ 70s, our purpose built really for the North Sea, harsh-environment, Barnett, super-spec rigs. Maybe there's not a lot of opportunities for those elsewhere on that being said, are we starting to see any opportunities for potential rigs, super-spec rigs that could be outside the North Sea that could start to tighten that market?

在浮式鑽機方面，我們已經看到一些鑽機實際上退出了該市場，在意識到CJ 70 上我們的目的是真正為北海、惡劣環境、Barnett、超規格鑽機而建造時，該市場似乎正在收緊。也許對其他地方的人來說沒有太多機會，我們是否開始看到北海以外的潛在鑽井平台、超規格鑽井平台的任何機會，從而開始收緊該市場？

Well, there's some there are two rigs that are leaving the North Sea in the end?

嗯，有兩個鑽井平台最後要離開北海？

I think it's the question kind of has to answer is whether you're talking about Norway or non Norway. And we have seen non we excuse me, we've seen Norway leaves Norway rigs leave and go to non Norway, North Sea and back and forth. So that's been been of the trend a little bit we have not seen Norway rigs leave the North Sea and go elsewhere in the world. And I think that's a less likely scenario for a couple of different reasons. And then in the non Norway, rest of the North Sea. There are a couple of rigs that are leaving this year. And I do think that those rigs are likely to leave or come back to the North Sea to balance markets with rest of world.

我認為必須回答的問題是你談論的是挪威還是非挪威。我們已經看到挪威的鑽井平台離開挪威，前往非挪威、北海，來回。因此，這已經成為一種趨勢，我們還沒有看到挪威鑽井平台離開北海並前往世界其他地方。我認為由於多種不同的原因，這種情況不太可能發生。然後是非挪威的北海其餘地區。今年有幾台鑽孔機即將離開。我確實認為這些鑽井平台可能會離開或返回北海，以平衡與世界其他地區的市場。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thanks for the time.

謝謝你的時間。

Our next question.

我們的下一個問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Eddie Kim with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自埃迪·金與巴克萊銀行的對話。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hi, good morning.

早安.

And just wanted to ask about what's embedded in your in your full year guide as it relates to contracting for the developer and the two Globetrotters this year, which I assume is the biggest swing factor that gets you to the high end or low end of your guide, depending on what happens there, what does the midpoint of your guide, so $975 million in EBITDA, assuming maybe a 40% utilization across those three rigs this year? Or how should we think about that?

只是想問一下您的全年指南中包含哪些內容，因為它與今年開發商和兩名環球旅行者的合約有關，我認為這是讓您達到高端或低端的最大搖擺因素指南，取決於那裡發生的情況，您的指南的中點是多少，即EBITDA 為9.75 億美元，假設今年這三台鑽機的利用率可能為40%？或者說我們該如何思考這個問題？

Yes, it's a very good question.

是的，這是一個非常好的問題。

And I think the way to think about it is, obviously, we expect and we have whitespace for each of those rigs and the ship, but we do have active dialogue but behind each of them. So I think I think you should think about our mid point of our guidance, assuming that there is incremental work for each of those weeks in 2024. I think that's as you think about our earnings profile through 2024 and into next year, obviously, with a contribution and from those weeks we'll be looking at an exit EBITDA run rate of, call it $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion of EBITDA.

我認為思考這個問題的方式顯然是，我們期望並且我們為每個鑽井平台和船舶都有空白，但我們確實有積極的對話，但在每個鑽井平台的背後。因此，我認為您應該考慮我們指導的中點，假設 2024 年的每一周都有增量工作。我認為，當你考慮我們到2024 年和明年的盈利狀況時，顯然，我們會做出貢獻，從那幾週開始，我們將考慮退出EBITDA 運行率，稱之為13 億美元至14 億美元的EBITDA。

Okay.

好的。

Okay. Got it.

好的。知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And my follow-up is just on the seasonality announcement several weeks ago that you only have one jackup in the Middle East coming Qatar. So exposure is very limited. And I still wanted to get your thoughts on how you see kind of the Middle East jack-up market playing out and in 25 and 26, if Saudi chooses not to renew some of their and their jackups. Could we see rigs moving out of Saudi into other countries like like Qatar or the UAE or even outside the Middle East region entirely just the stuff would be great to get some some thoughts there.

我的後續行動只是幾週前的季節性公告，中東只有一艘自升式鑽井平台即將抵達卡達。所以曝光度非常有限。我仍然想了解您對 25 年和 26 年中東自升式鑽井平台市場的看法，如果沙烏地阿拉伯選擇不更新他們的一些自升式鑽井平台的話。我們能否看到鑽井平台從沙烏地阿拉伯轉移到卡達或阿聯酋等其他國家，甚至完全轉移到中東地區之外，如果能在那裡得到一些想法，那就太好了。

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

And again, we are on a bit of an outsider right now on the whole situation. But I look my assumption is that the rig count is going to stay relatively flat. I think probably some some anticipated multi-rig tenders that we're potentially going to come out of people who are around 40 rig tender type type quantums are, of course, not going to happen at this point, seemingly, Tom, it rigs can move out and will move around the region as needed. But remember also there is a high cost of entry back in into Saudi Arabia because of some of the contract requirements. And so it's it's not a decision I would think to be taken lightly to move a rig out, um, and then because you don't know when you might get it back and then ultimately someone has to pay for that reentry costs for the contract upgrades unless you're lucky enough to get the exact same rig back. So like rig rig rigs are mobile, they're always going to move around regionally to fill demand but I think our best guess is that things stay relatively flat.

再說一次，我們現在對整個局勢有點局外人的態度。但我認為我的假設是鑽機數量將保持相對穩定。我認為，我們可能會從大約 40 台鑽機招標類型的人中進行一些預期的多鑽機招標，當然，目前不會發生，湯姆，它的鑽機可以搬出並根據需要在該地區周圍移動。但請記住，由於某些合約要求，返回沙烏地阿拉伯的成本很高。因此，我認為這不是一個輕率的決定，將鑽機移出，嗯，然後因為你不知道什麼時候可以把它拿回來，然後最終有人必須支付合同的重新進入費用升級除非你足夠幸運能得到完全相同的裝備。因此，就像鑽孔機是移動的一樣，它們總是會在區域內移動以滿足需求，但我認為我們最好的猜測是情況保持相對穩定。

Okay. Got it.

好的。知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, for the colour, and I'll turn it back.

謝謝你的顏色，我會把它轉回來。

Our next question comes from the line of Fredrik Stene with Clarksons Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自克拉克森證券公司的 Fredrik Stene。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hey guys, hopefully you can hear me.

嘿夥計們，希望你們能聽到我的聲音。

All right. And thanks for the comprehensive color both on the market and the and also for 2024. I wanted to touch a bit upon your seats and one of your competitors that have reported already. My impression is that for spec assets, there are no more and more opportunities that could make reactivations more sensible than before.

好的。感謝市場上以及 2024 年的全面色彩。我想談談你們的席位以及已經報道過的一位競爭對手。我的印像是，對於規格資產來說，沒有越來越多的機會可以使重新激活比以前更明智。

So my first question relates to just that, how are you now thinking about your two stacked drillships? Are you bidding them more actively. Are you on the looking at the Meltem for now or potentially both?

所以我的第一個問題與此相關，您現在如何看待您的兩艘堆疊式鑽井船？您是否更積極出價？您目前正在考慮 Meltem 還是兩者都有可能？

And second, you said that the next time we speak the Maersk acquisition is going to be because we're going to be closed on that one.

其次，你說下次我們談論馬士基收購案時，我們將結束這項收購。

So are you planning any more major M&A steps when that's done?

那麼，完成後您是否計劃採取更多重大併購措施？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes, sure thing. Thanks, Fredrik. First of all, on the on the drillships Meltem will be first. That's the one that we've selectively marketed. And I would not say that we've really changed our approach in marketing that rig. We're still looking for a full return on on the reactivation costs, which are around $125 million and take a year maybe slightly longer to carry out. So and that continues to be a smaller subset of opportunities. And I think we'll continue to market into into those opportunities is a lot of the if you just look at the publicly available information through Petrobras or whatever. I think so far, we've been less willing to provide substantial discounts off of market for that rig. And I don't see that we're necessarily going to change our approach of selectively marketing it into opportunities that fit the criteria for a reactivation and we will make we would not market disrupt go until the Meltem found a job so we'll just have to see I mean, it's a little bit hard to predict when that right job emerges for the Meltem, but we do anticipate that rig going back into the marketplace at some point on on the on your other question, we've said from the very beginning of the announcement of the merger with Maersk Drilling that this was going to be a transformational merger for both companies. And I think that that has absolutely proven out to be the case. We're extremely pleased with where we sit today. I think our 23 results in the midst of some of the really the bulk of the integration work really speak to the organization, the combined organization and everyone's willingness to lean into this and data and create some this is greater than the parts. So we just couldn't be more pleased. And we have also said that was going to be our transformational merger and from here, we will be selective. I think it's obvious that the combined platform could be a candidate for additional M&A. And but we are going to be picky always with the mind to our customers and our investors in what we look at.

是的，當然可以。謝謝，弗雷德里克。首先，在鑽井船上 Meltem 將是第一個。這就是我們有選擇地推銷的產品。我不會說我們真的改變了行銷該設備的方法。我們仍在尋求重新啟動成本的全額回報，該成本約為 1.25 億美元，需要一年的時間，可能會稍長一些。因此，這仍然是機會的一小部分。我認為，如果您透過巴西國家石油公司或其他機構查看公開訊息，我們將繼續開拓這些機會。我認為到目前為止，我們不太願意為該鑽機提供大幅的市場折扣。我不認為我們一定要改變我們的方法，選擇性地將其行銷為符合重新激活標準的機會，並且我們將確保我們不會擾亂市場，直到 Meltem 找到工作，所以我們必須看到我的意思是，很難預測Meltem 何時會出現合適的工作，但我們確實預計該設備會在您的另一個問題上的某個時候重新回到市場，我們已經從在宣布與馬士基鑽井公司合併的一開始，這將是兩家公司的轉型合併。我認為事實證明確實如此。我們對今天的座位非常滿意。我認為我們在大部分整合工作中的 23 個結果確實說明了組織、合併後的組織以及每個人都願意利用這一點和數據並創造一些比各個部分更偉大的東西。所以我們非常高興。我們也說過，這將是我們的轉型合併，從這裡開始，我們將有所選擇。我認為很明顯，合併後的平台可以成為額外併購的候選人。但我們將始終對我們所關注的客戶和投資者保持挑剔。

Thank you. That's very helpful. Just to follow up on the cold-stack tendering and reactivation thinking, I think you said in your your prepared remarks over that for now, at least there's some supply constraint or some it's mismatches in terms of where rigs are. And we are we are on markets that could make this a relatively balanced market, slightly trending upwards until the sideline capacity is absorbed. Both you and your peers are predicting, I think double-digit number of incremental rigs needed over the next few years. And so if that market is going to be balanced and you need a fine board capacity, how many do you have any idea of how many rigs can be brought back from the sideline per year just to see. Is there a chance that you will have demand outpacing the incremental supply that can be brought back just because of supply constraints, long-lead items, et cetera, that seems to be delayed or the more difficult to procure at this point and before.

謝謝。這非常有幫助。只是為了跟進冷堆招標和重新啟動的想法，我想你在準備好的評論中說過，目前至少存在一些供應限制，或者在鑽機位置方面存在一些不匹配。我們所處的市場可能會使其成為一個相對平衡的市場，在副業產能被吸收之前略有上升趨勢。您和您的同行都預測，我認為未來幾年需要兩位數的增量鑽機數量。因此，如果這個市場要平衡，並且您需要良好的板容量，那麼您知道每年可以從場外帶回多少鑽機來看看。需求是否有可能超過增量供應，而增量供應可能只是由於供應限制、長期交貨期等原因而恢復的，這些供應似乎被延遲或在此時和之前更難採購。

Yes, it's a good question. I mean, we're going to see plus I think six this year, five or six this year, and we've seen a plus 15, I believe, from the very beginning of this upturn come in. So I think the numbers have come through in that kind of five, six seven at the most per year range, if I'm remembering correctly in that, that seems sustainable. It also kind of matches up where where we see increased demand incremental demand.

是的，這是一個好問題。我的意思是，我認為今年我們將看到 6 個，今年有 5 到 6 個，我相信，從這次好轉一開始我們就看到了 15 個。所以我認為每年最多有五、六、七的數字，如果我沒記錯的話，這似乎是可持續的。這也與我們看到的需求增加的增量需求相符。

Excuse me, coming from?

打擾一下，從哪裡來？

I would say a lot of it depends on on the specific contracts. There are a couple of more reactivations that are going to occur in our contract startups from reactivations that are going to occur in 2024 than we were predicting in early 2023. And that's partly because some of the tenders extended their start date to allow time for reactivations. So to the extent that the programs that are out there that are two plus years to the operators of those programs decide to actively include reactivated rig time line that supports reactivated rigs. I would anticipate, as we said in the script, that many of the seven to 10 additional rigs are set up to take discounts to current market. I think this trend probably continues until most of them, if not all of them, but most of them are back back into the marketplace. So I could easily see and that's kind of why we've called for a balance our market over the next year or so. I could easily see the bulk of those seven to 10 getting announced through, say, mid next year. I mean, just picking picking a date out of thin air, but it's not at all impossible that that we see a majority of those reactivations getting announced. But the one thing I would say is we've been a little bit flat on as an industry on and UDW. rates over the last six months or so. But they're there. The rates have also kind of ticked upward even as reactivations have been announced and occurring. And I think that the flatness over the last six months is not necessarily attributable to all of these reactivations. I think it's a confluence of factors and all that's to say that we still do think that there is likely to be rate appreciation through that same period, maybe not at the same slope that we saw early on in this upturn. But we do think that there will be continued rate appreciation.

我想說這很大程度上取決於具體合約。與我們在 2023 年初預測的相比，2024 年將發生的合約新創公司的重新激活數量將多於幾個。部分原因是一些招標延長了開始日期，以便有時間重新啟動。因此，就現有項目而言，這些項目的運營商決定積極納入支持重新激活鑽機的重新激活鑽機時間線，這些項目需要兩年多的時間。正如我們在腳本中所說，我預計，七到十台額外的鑽機中的許多都是為了對當前市場進行折扣而設置的。我認為這種趨勢可能會持續下去，直到他們中的大多數（如果不是全部）重新回到市場。所以我很容易看出，這就是為什麼我們呼籲在未來一年左右的時間內平衡我們的市場。我可以很容易地看到這七到十個中的大部分在明年中旬之前宣布。我的意思是，只是憑空挑選一個日期，但我們看到大多數重新啟動的訊息並不是不可能的。但我要說的一件事是，作為一個產業，我們在 UDW 方面的表現有點平淡。過去六個月左右的利率。但他們就在那裡。即使已經宣布重新啟動並正在發生，利率也有所上升。我認為過去六個月的平穩並不一定歸因於所有這些重新激活。我認為這是多種因素綜合作用的結果，也就是說，我們仍然認為同一時期利率可能會升值，但升值幅度可能與我們在本輪經濟好轉初期看到的斜率不同。但我們確實認為利率將會持續升值。

So thank you. That's very comprehensive and very helpful. I think for me, thank you very much and have a good day.

所以謝謝。這是非常全面且非常有幫助的。我想對我來說，非常感謝你，祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Kurt Hallead with Benchmark.

我們的下一個問題來自 Benchmark 的 Kurt Hallad。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hey, good morning, everybody and Kurt. I just wanted to do LA maybe extend the conversation off that off your prior answer there, right. So we've heard quite a bit that there's increasing duration, as you referenced, and others have restaurants in that longer duration contract period. And I guess also translated in terms of a longer negotiation period to finalize those contracts. So kind taking what you said about pricing thinking what's going on with respect to longer negotiation periods. I'm just kind of curious how much of that field it's a longer negotiation period is related to a bid-ask spread on pricing?

嘿，大家早安，庫爾特。我只是想做洛杉磯，也許可以將談話從你之前的答案中延伸出來，對吧。因此，正如您所提到的，我們聽說很多合約期限都在增加，而其他餐廳的合約期限也更長。我想這也意味著敲定這些合約需要更長的談判時間。因此，請接受您所說的有關定價的內容，思考更長的談判週期會發生什麼。我只是有點好奇，更長的談判週期在多大程度上與定價的買賣價差有關？

Oh, gosh, well, actually, I think what's happened here is in 2024, you had the dynamic I just mentioned where some some programs start dates were pushed back to allow for some reactivations. And we actually thought some of those programs were going to go to existing supply. And then at the same time, I think of several operators have recognized the discount in the market for longer term contracts and decided to trying to pull together their various different programs into a group contracts so that they can go out for more term. And so a few wells that may otherwise have been drilled in 2024, perhaps got pushed to 25 or later in order to group here for some term. And that's created a little bit of this of white space in 2024. And also the perceived kind of a longer negotiation period is a piece of that as well come in. I don't know that it's a significant bid-ask as much as the dynamics that I've just described.

哦，天哪，好吧，實際上，我認為這裡發生的事情是在 2024 年，你有我剛才提到的動態，一些項目的開始日期被推遲，以允許重新激活。我們實際上認為其中一些項目將用於現有供應。同時，我認為一些運營商已經認識到市場上長期合約的折扣，並決定嘗試將他們的各種不同項目整合到一個團體合約中，以便他們可以簽訂更長的合約期限。因此，一些原本可能在 2024 年鑽探的井可能會被推遲到 25 口或更晚，以便在這裡分組使用一段時間。這在 2024 年創造了一些空白。此外，人們認為更長的談判期也是其中的一部分。我不知道這是一個像我剛才描述的那樣重要的買賣動態。

That's great. That's great color. Appreciate that. And my follow-up is on the synergies.

那太棒了。那顏色真棒。感謝。我的後續行動是協同效應。

I'm just kind of curious where those synergies are going to land that can be mostly OpEx or G&A or some or G&A or some combination?

我只是有點好奇這些協同效應將在哪裡落地，主要是營運支出或一般行政費用或一些或一般行政費用或某種組合？

It's going to be both, candidly, I would say from a G&A perspective, you know most of that was probably what was realized in 2023. I think going forward, we've obviously increased the target from $125 million to $150 million. I think you should think about those incremental synergies sitting more in OpEx.

坦白說，從一般行政費用的角度來看，這兩者都會是，你知道其中大部分可能是在 2023 年實現的。我認為展望未來，我們顯然已將目標從 1.25 億美元提高到 1.5 億美元。我認為你應該更多地考慮營運支出中的增量協同效應。

Okay. That's great.

好的。那太棒了。

And then if I squeeze one more in, you mentioned supply chain bottlenecks. So Robert, when do you see those supply chain bottlenecks easing or from or not getting any worse?

然後如果我再擠進去，你提到了供應鏈瓶頸。那麼羅伯特，您認為這些供應鏈瓶頸何時會緩解或不再惡化？

Well, I mean, I think the same I mentioned the numbers of reactivations that were going through on top of that last year and this year for the industry or PSPS. years, and it starts to slow down a little bit next year and then more substantially in 2026. So I would anticipate that we're probably at peak bottleneck on the equipment side, but there's no there's strikes in Europe and obviously shipping issues. And so there's some some complicating factors as well. I think that are affecting 2024 and our specific situation right now on the FE Kodak that are out with just just the normal manufacturing supply chain issues.

嗯，我的意思是，我認為同樣的，我提到了去年和今年該行業或 PSPS 的重新激活數量。年，明年開始略有放緩，然後到 2026 年會大幅放緩。因此，我預計我們可能在設備方面處於峰值瓶頸，但歐洲沒有罷工，也沒有明顯的運輸問題。所以還有一些複雜的因素。我認為這正在影響 2024 年以及我們目前在 FE 柯達上的具體情況，該公司僅存在正常的製造供應鏈問題。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of David Smith with Pickering Energy Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 David Smith 和 Pickering Energy Partners 的電話。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you and good morning.

謝謝你，早安。

Good morning, David.

早安，大衛。

I know a decent chunk of Norwegian semi work in the past have taken place in depth that CJ 70 could address. And with all of the SMEs that have left Norway. I wanted to ask if you're seeing an operator interest for programs in the next year or two of it, it might otherwise want a semi, but we'll take a jackup because that's what's available.

我知道過去挪威半成品工作的很大一部分已經深入進行，CJ 70 可以解決。以及所有離開挪威的中小企業。我想問一下，您是否看到運營商對未來一兩年的項目感興趣，否則它可能需要半成品，但我們會採用自升式鑽井平台，因為這就是可用的。

Yes, yes, there, it's a good question, David. There I would characterize it as there is absolutely interest. There is no tangible demand right now, and we have done a lot of work on using a CJ. 70 over subsea tin plate, and we are hoping to get showcased some of that at some point soon. But it's a little bit too early to claim a claim success in some of the work that we've done right now. But for sure, we have conversations all throughout the country and there is interest and in exploring that going forward, one thing I will say is that the floater type, the harsh floater tightness has been known for quite some time. And so I think there's been also a push by operators there not well to fill any white space they can with with the rigs they have under contract. So as not to lose a rig to use. So to the extent that perhaps we had an opportunity to go showcase the CJ 70 in some of this transition zone, we probably missed out on a couple of those because operators wanted to make sure they didn't lose access to preferred harsh floaters. So it's a continuing, although kind of yet to launch story. I think for the CJ CJ 70s, but but we remain hopeful.

是的，是的，這是一個很好的問題，大衛。我將其描述為絕對有興趣。目前還沒有實際的需求，我們在使用 CJ 方面做了很多工作。 70 多個海底鍍錫板，我們希望很快就能展示其中的一些。但現在就宣稱我們目前所做的一些工作取得了成功還為時過早。但可以肯定的是，我們在全國範圍內進行了對話，並且有興趣並在探索未來，我要說的一件事是，漂浮物類型，嚴酷的漂浮物緊密度已經為人所知相當長一段時間了。因此，我認為那裡的運營商也一直在努力推動他們用合約下的鑽機填補任何空白。以免失去裝備使用。因此，就我們可能有機會在某些過渡區域展示 CJ 70 而言，我們可能錯過了其中幾個，因為營運商希望確保他們不會失去首選的嚴酷浮標。所以這是一個持續的故事，儘管還沒開始。我認為對於CJ CJ 70s，但我們仍然充滿希望。

Appreciate that color. And the follow-up, I guess there's been some media reports that the operator using the know-how transfer off stuff. Conor might might want to release that early. Just wanted to ask if you could tell us anything about what kind termination fee that contract might have an whether and early release is contemplated in the guidance provided?

欣賞那個顏色。後續，我想有一些媒體報告說營運商使用專有技術轉移了東西。康納可能想儘早發布。只是想問您是否可以告訴我們有關該合約可能會收取什麼樣的終止費以及所提供的指南中是否考慮提前解除的資訊？

Sure.

當然。

So the customer their announced of a break in their drilling plans, which is what you're referring to for us, it is, of course, a kind of a classic. So story of the double-edged nature of a top performing contractor because we've drilled ourselves out of a job, so to speak. But to be clear, despite my last statement that there has been no contract termination announcement. Of course, we would put that out. And so what I would say is it's too early really to give definitive answer to what the the customer plans to do there, they have announced a drilling break. I can give the color that that Mark, that contract was signed in a in a substantially lesser market than than we find ourselves today. So the termination clause kind of follows with commercials there. But on the flip side of it, the rig has performed tremendously well, which is which is why we've kind of finished some of the plans up early and on there is the customer we understand does have more work in it. So it's a it's a contract signed at a different period of time. So we'll have to really kind of wait to see what what the customer decides do. There is in fact, we find ourselves marketing that rig The good news is that the revenue makeup would happen relatively quickly because the market's substantially higher today than the rates on that rig under firm contracts.

因此，客戶宣布暫停鑽探計劃，這就是您為我們所指的，這當然是一種經典。這是一個關於表現最好的承包商的雙刃劍的故事，因為我們已經把自己從一份工作中淘汰了，可以這麼說。但需要明確的是，儘管我上次聲明尚未宣布合約終止。當然，我們會把它放出來。所以我想說的是，現在對客戶計劃在那裡做什麼給出明確的答案還為時過早，他們已經宣布暫停鑽探。我可以說，那個馬克，那份合約是在比我們今天發現的市場小得多的市場上簽署的。因此，終止條款是跟廣告一起出現的。但另一方面，該鑽機的性能非常好，這就是為什麼我們提前完成了一些計劃，而且據我們了解，客戶確實有更多的工作要做。所以這是在不同期間簽署的合約。因此，我們必須等待，看看客戶決定做什麼。事實上，我們發現自己正在行銷該鑽機。好消息是，收入組成將相對較快地發生，因為今天的市場價格遠高於該鑽機在固定合約下的價格。

Yeah, absolutely. Appreciate that color Thank you.

是的，絕對是。欣賞這個顏色，謝謝。

Our final question comes from the line of Noel Parks with Tuohy Brothers.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Noel Parks 和 Tuohy Brothers 的路線。

Go ahead, please.

請繼續。

Hi, good morning.

早安.

Just a couple of quick ones. I apologize if you touched on this already, but it was encouraging to hear about the expected improvement in gross margins and jack ups, I think you said 16% from about [%10]. So just interested to hear what you think about that where that stands as a trend going forward?

只是幾個快速的。如果您已經談到這一點，我深表歉意，但聽到毛利率和自升式的預期改善令人鼓舞，我認為您說的是大約 16%[%10]。所以只是想聽聽您對未來趨勢的看法？

So yes, so in 2023, obviously, that was a trough year for us for the jack-up contribution, if you will, to earnings or so, obviously, as we see improvements in the North Sea more broadly, that's why we had a 10% increase increasing to 15%. I think that we also not providing anything around 2025 at this stage, but I think we would expect to see that contribution continue to increase from 15% upwards once we get into 2025.

所以，是的，所以在2023 年，顯然，對於我們的自升式鑽井平台貢獻（如果你願意的話）來說，這是收入的低谷一年，顯然，當我們更廣泛地看到北海的改善時，這就是為什麼我們有增加 10%，增加至 15%。我認為現階段我們在 2025 年左右也不會提供任何東西，但我認為一旦進入 2025 年，我們預計貢獻會繼續從 15% 上升。

Great. And done, I yes, I thought it was. I mentioned earlier in the call that, Tom, that sort of the light was flashing green and all sorts of fronting, including them some optimism on the supply chain. I think maybe Kris mentioned, but I think in a recent question, in your result, another reference to supply chain so just wondering if you could maybe just characterize what you're seeing on that side effect lessening is a factor in your in your planning or are still a bit of a challenge.

偉大的。完成了，我是的，我想是的。我之前在電話中提到，湯姆，那種綠燈閃爍和各種各樣的前景，包括他們對供應鏈的一些樂觀情緒。我想克里斯可能提到過，但我認為在最近的一個問題中，在你的結果中，另一個提到了供應鏈，所以只是想知道你是否可以描述你所看到的副作用減少是你計劃中的一個因素或仍然是一個挑戰。

Sure.

當然。

Yes.

是的。

So the reference to supply chain in relation to the fate Kodak in some of our other SPS's was around some delays. We've seen really just in the Kodak we've seen around procuring some of the long-lead items, which is delaying our start ultimately in Brazil. And that's a function of shipping delays and strikes and everything I've mentioned as well as and the number of SPS. is happening globally across the jackup and deepwater fleet right now. That is that is separate from my reference in the script to subsea trees, which we consider one of the leading indicators, particularly well for deep for deepwater work, where a customer typically orders trees, which is a a long lead item for four drilling producing wells before they go into development project. So if you look at tree orders, typically you can anticipate that one, perhaps maybe closer to two years after that demand for our services would follow. And so we're seeing with the green flashing green, it's around leading indicators on the procurement side, only one we mentioned was trees, but then also FIDs. And then just just straight-up OpEx budgets for our customers excuse me, CapEx budgets for our customers are all up and are all positive and supportive of a multiyear upturn here.

因此，在我們的其他一些 SPS 中，與柯達命運相關的供應鏈的提及是圍繞著一些延遲進行的。我們在柯達採購了一些長期供貨的產品時就看到了這種情況，這最終推遲了我們在巴西的啟動。這是運輸延誤和罷工以及我提到的所有內容以及 SPS 數量的函數。目前，全球自升式鑽井平台和深水船隊都在發生這種情況。這與我在腳本中提到的海底樹木不同，我們認為海底樹木是領先指標之一，特別是對於深水工作來說，客戶通常會訂購樹木，這是四口鑽井生產井的長期項目在他們進入開發專案之前。因此，如果您查看樹木訂單，通常您可以預見到對我們服務的需求將在一年後，也許接近兩年後出現。因此，我們看到綠色閃爍，這是圍繞採購方面的領先指標，我們只提到了樹木，但也提到了最終投資決定。然後只是我們客戶的直接營運支出預算，對不起，我們客戶的資本支出預算全部增加，而且都是積極的，支持這裡的多年好轉。

Great. Thanks a lot.

偉大的。多謝。

Thanks, Noel.

謝謝，諾埃爾。

I would now like to turn the call over to Ian MacPherson for closing remarks.

現在我想將電話轉交給 Ian MacPherson 致閉幕詞。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today, and we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Have a good day.

感謝大家今天加入我們，我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's call. You may now correct.

今天的電話會議到此結束。你現在可以更正了。