Noble Corporation PLC (NE) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. My name is Kelvin, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Noble Corporation's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

女士們、先生們，早安，謝謝大家的支持。我叫凱爾文，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Noble Corporation 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）謝謝。

I would now like to turn the call over to Ian MacPherson, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Ian MacPherson。請繼續。

Thank you, Kelvin, and welcome, everyone, to Noble Corporation's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. You can find a copy of earnings report along with the supporting statements and schedules on our website at noblecorp.com. We will reference an earnings presentation that's posted on the Investor Relations page of our website. Today's call will feature prepared remarks from our President and CEO, Robert Eifler, as well as our CFO, Richard Barker. Also joining on the call is Joey Kawaja, Senior Vice President of Operations.

謝謝你，凱爾文，歡迎大家參加 Noble Corporation 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。您可以在我們的網站 noblecorp.com 上找到收益報告的副本以及支援聲明和時間表。我們將參考我們網站投資者關係頁面上發布的收益報告。今天的電話會議將以我們總裁兼首席執行官羅伯特·艾夫勒 (Robert Eifler) 和首席財務官理查德·巴克 (Richard Barker) 的準備好的發言為特色。參加電話會議的還有營運資深副總裁 Joey Kawaja。

During the course of this call, we may make certain forward-looking statements regarding various matters related to our business and companies that are not historical facts. Such statements are based upon current expectations and assumptions of management and are therefore subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Many factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements, and Noble does not assume any obligation to update these statements.

在本次電話會議過程中，我們可能會就與我們的業務和公司相關的各種事項做出某些非歷史事實的前瞻性陳述。此類聲明是基於管理層目前的預期和假設，因此受一定風險和不確定性的影響。許多因素可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性聲明有重大差異，Noble 不承擔更新這些陳述的任何義務。

Also note, we are referencing non-GAAP financial measures on the call today. You can find the required supplemental disclosure for these measures, including the most directly comparable GAAP measure and an associated reconciliation in our earnings report issued yesterday and filed with the SEC.

另請注意，我們在今天的電話會議上引用了非 GAAP 財務指標。您可以在我們昨天發布並向美國證券交易委員會提交的收益報告中找到這些指標所需的補充揭露，包括最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標和相關對帳。

Now I'll turn the call over to Robert Eifler, President and CEO of Noble.

現在我將電話轉給 Noble 總裁兼執行長 Robert Eifler。

Thanks, Ian. Good day, everyone, and thank you joining us. Today, we have three main topics that we will address in our prepared remarks before we wrap up and go to Q&A. First, a summary of our Q4 results, capital return program, and integration progress. Second, our industry market outlook including our semiannual review of global deepwater demand as well as important fleet status highlights for Noble. Third, Richard will discuss our results and 2025 guidance. Following all of this, I'll wrap up with a few concluding remarks.

謝謝，伊恩。大家好，感謝大家加入我們。今天，我們有三個主要主題，我們將在準備好的發言中討論這些主題，然後我們結束並進入問答環節。首先，總結一下我們第四季的業績、資本回報計畫和整合進展。第二，我們的產業市場展望，包括對全球深水需求的半年回顧以及Noble的重要船隊狀況亮點。第三，理查德將討論我們的業績和2025年指引。說完這些之後，我想做幾點總結性的評論。

2024 was another pivotal year for Noble. We completed the highly strategic acquisition of Diamond Offshore, bolstering our strong position in deepwater and advancing our value proposition for customers and shareholders. We just passed the 150-day integration mark, and we're well on our way to achieving our previously stated synergy of $100 million, approximately half of which have already been realized as of today.

2024年對Noble來說又是關鍵的一年。我們完成了對 Diamond Offshore 的高度策略性收購，鞏固了我們在深水領域的強勢地位，並提升了我們為客戶和股東提供的價值主張。我們剛剛度過了150天的整合期，我們正在順利實現我們之前提出的1億美元協同效應，截至今天，其中大約一半已經實現。

I'm immensely proud of our global offshore and shore-based teams who have ensured that the initial and most critical phase of this integration has gone tremendously well. Thank you to all our employees. Your commitment has been crucial as we prioritize our customers' needs throughout this integration and continue to deliver safe and efficient operational outcomes.

我對我們的全球海上和岸上團隊感到無比自豪，他們確保了此次整合的初始和最關鍵階段進展順利。感謝我們所有的員工。您的承諾至關重要，因為我們在整個整合過程中優先考慮客戶的需求並繼續提供安全且高效的營運成果。

The fourth quarter was our first full quarter with Diamond, and we had a solid result with Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $319 million. We continue to make major progress with our return of capital program. During the quarter, we paid $80 million in dividends and repurchased $50 million of shares, bringing our full-year 2024 return of capital to over $575 million. Yesterday, our Board declared a $0.50 dividend for the first quarter of 2025, consistent with past practices, and I'm pleased to highlight that we have now surpassed $900 million in combined dividends and buybacks since Q4 2022, including this quarter's announced dividend.

第四季是我們與 Diamond 合作的第一個完整季度，我們的業績表現穩健，第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 3.19 億美元。我們的資本返還計劃繼續取得重大進展。本季度，我們支付了 8000 萬美元的股息併回購了 5000 萬美元的股票，使我們 2024 年全年的資本回報率超過 5.75 億美元。昨天，我們的董事會宣布 2025 年第一季的股息為 0.50 美元，與過去的做法一致，我很高興地強調，自 2022 年第四季以來，我們的綜合股息和回購現已超過 9 億美元，包括本季宣布的股息。

We've also had a nice string of contract wins recently, comprising over $500 million in firm commitments, excluding options, which have augmented our 2025 and 2026 contract coverage. These are detailed in our earnings release and fleet status report and confirm that recent day rate fixtures for Tier-1 drillships have held firm in the mid to high 400s per day.

我們最近也贏得了一系列合同，包括超過 5 億美元的確定承諾（不包括選擇權），這擴大了我們 2025 年和 2026 年的合約覆蓋範圍。這些在我們的收益報告和船隊狀況報告中有詳細說明，並確認一級鑽井船的近期日費率一直保持在每天 400 多美元的中高水準。

Now turning to the broader industry outlook, including our semi-annual global review of deepwater demand. Overall, we remain encouraged by a variety of positive indicators for deepwater activity over the coming years. both from a macro perspective in terms of the expected rising call on deepwater production, FIDs, and subsea order books, et cetera, and also from the specific dialogue with our customers and the visibility into their future drilling plans.

現在轉向更廣泛的行業前景，包括我們對深水需求的半年度全球評估。總體而言，我們仍然對未來幾年深水活動的各種積極指標感到鼓舞。一方面從宏觀角度來看，預期深水生產需求、最終投資決定 (FID) 和海底訂單等將不斷上升，另一方面從與客戶的具體對話和對其未來鑽井計劃的了解來看。

That said, we have seen, of course, the emergence of a mid-cycle lull beginning in the second half of last year, which is carrying through into 2025, in step with the global trend of upstream capital discipline in a comfortably supplied oil market. Consequently, contracted deepwater demand has dipped from about 105 rigs and 94% marketed utilization as of last summer to 100 rigs and 89% marketed utilization currently.

儘管如此，我們當然已經看到，從去年下半年開始出現了一個中期週期低迷期，並將持續到 2025 年，這與石油市場供應充足、上游資本紀律嚴明的全球趨勢保持一致。因此，合約深水鑽井需求已從去年夏天的約 105 個鑽井平台和 94% 的市場利用率下降到目前的 100 個鑽井平台和 89% 的市場利用率。

With this downward revision versus how the market was previously trending, we are continuously evaluating the range of scenarios against which to manage and plan our business. We expect UDW contracted demand to bottom slightly lower this year and then to ultimately eclipse recent highs, perhaps 105 to 110 or more rigs by late '26 or '27.

與先前的市場趨勢相比，這次的下調是為了讓我們不斷評估各種情況，以便管理和規劃我們的業務。我們預計，今年 UDW 合約需求將略微觸底，然後最終超過近期高點，到 26 年底或 27 年可能達到 105 至 110 座甚至更多。

However, recent experience with demand generally slipping to the right also compels us to consider more temporary scenarios as well with commodity prices and macroeconomic drivers obviously playing a key role in these potential outcomes. Regardless of whether demand lands at 95, 100 or 110 UDW rigs over the near term, we see a diminished call on reactivations of idle capacity for at least the next two to three years. Hence, our recent decision to permanently retire the cold stacked drillships, Meltem and Scirocco.

然而，近期需求普遍向右下滑的經驗也迫使我們考慮更多暫時的情況，其中大宗商品價格和宏觀經濟驅動因素顯然在這些潛在結果中發揮關鍵作用。無論短期內需求達到 95 座、100 座或 110 人座 UDW 鑽井平台，我們都認為至少在未來兩到三年內，對重新啟動閒置產能的需求將會減少。因此，我們最近決定永久退役冷停泊鑽井船Meltem和Scirocco。

In total, we have now effectively removed six rigs from the lower end of our floater fleet, including the Ocean Onyx and Ocean Valiant, which have been scrapped as well as the Globetrotter I and II, which we are no longer bidding into the drilling market except for a highly specific niche situations for their unique design features have advantages, for example, the Black Sea.

總體而言，我們目前已有效地從我們的浮動鑽井船隊低端機型中移除了六座鑽井平台，包括已被報廢的Ocean Onyx和Ocean Valiant，以及Globetrotter I和II，我們不再將它們納入鑽井市場的競標範圍，除非是在非常具體的利基市場，因為它們獨特的設計特點具有優勢，例如黑海。

Given the oversupply of rigs in today's market, we strongly believe that the rational course is to scrap stack rigs or sell them into alternative use rather than selling them as drilling units to secondary competitors. Nonetheless, these retirements will be cash flow accretive regardless of disposal proceeds as we expect to shed upwards of $20 million in annualized stacking costs. Throughout our growth journey over the past few years, sideline capacity has never been Noble's brand. We're focused on operating a leading high-spec and highly utilized fleet, which we believe is ultimately how we can truly deliver value for our customers and shareholders. And again, based on the recent recalibration of the market, the option value of sideline capacity in this industry has eroded.

鑑於當今市場鑽機供應過剩，我們堅信合理的做法是報廢鑽機或將其出售用於其他用途，而不是將其作為鑽井設備出售給次要競爭對手。儘管如此，無論處置收益如何，這些退役都將增加現金流，因為我們預計年度堆積成本將減少 2,000 萬美元以上。在我們過去幾年的成長歷程中，副業產能從來都不是來寶的品牌。我們專注於營運領先的高規格和高利用率的機隊，我們相信這最終是我們真正為客戶和股東創造價值的方式。而且，根據最近的市場重新調整，該產業副業產能的選擇價值已經下降。

Now on the regional demand highlights. The Golden Triangle of the Americas and West Africa continues to shoulder over 75% of global deepwater demand. While the US Gulf and South America have remained strong, West Africa has been the primary locus of weaker-than-expected activity recently. That said, the tangible pipeline of additional rig requirements in the region which have been delayed by around a year on average, still has good visibility for a rebound over the next two to three years.

現在來談談區域需求亮點。美洲和西非金三角持續承擔全球75%以上的深水油田需求。儘管美國墨西哥灣和南美地區依然保持強勁，但西非地區近期一直是活動弱於預期的主要區域。儘管如此，該地區實際新增鑽井需求（平均推遲了約一年）仍然預計在未來兩到三年內反彈。

Current demand in West Africa is 13 UDW rigs, down from a range of 17 to 20 that prevailed throughout 2023 and the first half of 2024. The Keystone markets here are Angola with six units currently and Namibia with four. Open demand in the region includes, among numerous other smaller programs, five multiyear tenders with contemplated start dates throughout 2026 and into 2027. This is in addition to several multiyear tenders with similar timing in Mozambique that appear to be approaching imminent FID. Namibia remains a crucial exploration and development play, although we have recently seen the expected FID for the Venus project probably slipped from 2025 out to 2026.

西非目前的需求為 13 座 UDW 鑽井平台，低於 2023 年全年及 2024 年上半年的 17 至 20 座。這裡的 Keystone 市場是安哥拉（目前有 6 個單位）和納米比亞（有 4 個單位）。該地區的開放需​​求包括眾多其他小型項目以及五個多年期招標，預計開始日期為 2026 年至 2027 年。除此之外，莫三比克還有幾項時間類似的多年期招標，似乎即將做出最終投資決定。納米比亞仍然是一個重要的勘探和開發地區，儘管我們最近看到 Venus 項目的預期 FID 可能從 2025 年推遲到 2026 年。

So overall, while West Africa has been a surprising laggard region over the past year, this looks very much like a transient air pocket ahead of what should be a meaningful and durable uptrend in the years ahead. South America continues to be very strong and a very important region for Noble with eight of our deepwater rigs presently contracted throughout Guyana, Brazil, Colombia, and Suriname. Total UDW demand in the region is now up to 42 rigs, which is a current cycle high and up significantly from 35 rigs a year ago. Base load demand from Brazil 35 rigs look stable going forward with positive optionality arising from Brazil and other areas such as Colombia, where there has been recent exploration success as well as Suriname with its first field development commencing in 2026.

因此總體而言，儘管西非在過去一年中令人驚訝地成為一個落後地區，但這看起來很像是一個短暫的空氣袋，未來幾年應該會出現有意義且持久的上升趨勢。南美洲繼續保持強勁勢頭，對 Noble 來說也是一個非常重要的地區，我們目前在圭亞那、巴西、哥倫比亞和蘇利南簽訂了八個深水鑽井平台的合約。該地區 UDW 鑽井平台總需求目前已達到 42 座，這是當前週期的最高水平，且較一年前 35 座鑽井平台有大幅成長。巴西 35 座鑽井平台的基本負載需求看起來保持穩定，且來自巴西和其他地區（如最近勘探取得成功的哥倫比亞以及將於 2026 年開始首次油田開發的蘇利南）的選擇性為積極。

The US has, as expected, remained stable with 23 contracted UDW rigs today in line with the normal 22 to 24 rig range over the past couple of years. It's also another highly scaled market for Noble with seven of our deepwater units contracted domestically, including the Black Rhino, which has recently returned from West Africa. Although there is likely to be some additional gap time between contracts in 2025, we expect demand levels to ultimately stabilize around current levels.

正如預期，美國目前簽約的 UDW 鑽井平台數量保持穩定，為 23 座，與過去幾年 22 至 24 座的正常水平一致。這也是 Noble 的另一個規模龐大的市場，我們在國內簽訂了七套深水作業合同，其中包括最近從西非返回的「黑犀牛」號。儘管 2025 年的合約之間可能會有一些額外的間隔時間，但我們預計需求水準最終將穩定在當前水準左右。

Now turning outside the Golden Triangle. The Mediterranean and Black Sea have been another stable deepwater market with 9 units contracted currently, in line with the 8 to 10 range over the past couple of years. Activity in the region is led primarily by Turkey and Egypt, with a fair amount of current and future planned activity also stemming from Cyprus, Israel, Spain, Libya, and the Black Sea.

現在正在金三角外轉彎。地中海和黑海是另一個穩定的深水市場，目前已簽約 9 個單位，與過去幾年的 8 至 10 個範圍一致。該地區的活動主要由土耳其和埃及主導，相當一部分當前和未來計劃的活動也來自塞浦路斯、以色列、西班牙、利比亞和黑海。

The Asia Pacific region after West Africa, has been the other notably softer market over the past six months and is currently down to 5 UDW units compared to normalized demand of 8 to 10 earlier this cycle. These 5 units do not include an additional 4, 6 gen semis in Australia that are not technically UDW rated. The outlook in this region is somewhat mixed. On the favorable side, there is open demand for at least one to two incremental units in India from late '25 and into '26 in addition to an expected incremental drillship program in Malaysia. On the other hand, most of the bigger programs in Australia are further out into the 2027 to 2028 time frame according to current plans.

繼西非之後，亞太地區是過去六個月中另一個明顯疲軟的市場，目前已降至 5 個 UDW 單位，而本週期早些時候的正常需求為 8 至 10 個。這 5 台機組不包括澳洲另外 4 台、6 台未在技術上獲得 UDW 評級的半拖車。該地區的前景有些好壞參半。有利的一面是，除了馬來西亞預期的增量鑽井船計畫之外，從25年末到26年，印度對至少一到兩台增量裝置的公開需求也很大。另一方面，根據目前的計劃，澳洲的大多數大型項目都將推遲到 2027 年至 2028 年。

Finally, the harsh environment North Sea and Norway market currently represents seven units of UDW demand and 20 units of total floater demand, including mid-water, both of which are a few units lower presently compared to 2023 to 2024 levels. There's a fairly high degree of political influence that governs capital deployment in this region, which always complicates forecasting a bit. However, separate from the fiscal and regulatory factors, there are underlying realities surrounding European energy resilience and competitiveness that could eventually support a more predictable upstream investment landscape compared to the current status quo. However, in the meantime, I would also add that the intervention and P&A opportunity set in the North Sea remains a relative bright spot in terms of our fleet positioning.

最後，在惡劣環境下的北海和挪威市場目前代表著 7 個單位的 UDW 需求和 20 個單位的總浮動需求（包括中層水域），與 2023 年至 2024 年的水平相比，這兩個需求目前都低了幾個單位。該地區的資本部署受到相當高程度的政治影響，這總是使預測變得有點複雜。然而，除了財政和監管因素之外，歐洲能源彈性和競爭力方面還存在一些潛在現實因素，與現狀相比，這些因素最終可能支持更可預測的上游投資格局。然而，同時，我還要補充一點，就我們的船隊定位而言，北海的干預和P＆A機會仍然是一個相對的亮點。

All together, incorporating all these regional dynamics, we believe the global deepwater market could potentially see a net demand improvement of up to 10 or more units versus the current 100 contracted rigs by late '26 or '27. But again, there's always timing variability to consider.

總而言之，結合所有這些區域動態，我們相信，到 26 年底或 27 年，全球深水市場淨需求可能會從目前的 100 座合約鑽井平台增加 10 座或更多。但同樣，總是有時間變化需要考慮。

So how does this translate to our deepwater fleet status and outlook? Starting with our 14 Tier 1 drillships, which are the core earnings engine of Noble, comprising approximately 75% of expected total company EBITDA this year, we currently have one unit available, the Noble Voyager, and another three units that have contract rollovers throughout this year. Our recent pictures for Tier 1 drillship have been in the mid- to high 400s per day and we have a clear line of sight to potentially securing full future contract coverage across these 14 rigs by later this year. These programs commencing in 2025 and 2026.

那麼這對我們的深水艦隊的現狀和前景有何影響？從我們的 14 艘一級鑽井船開始，它們是 Noble 的核心盈利引擎，約佔今年公司預期總 EBITDA 的 75%，目前我們有一艘可用的鑽井船，即 Noble Voyager，另有三艘鑽井船的合約將在今年全年展期。我們最近為一級鑽井船拍攝的照片每天約為 400 多艘，並且我們預計在今年晚些時候獲得對這 14 艘鑽井平台的全面未來合約覆蓋。這些項目將於 2025 年和 2026 年開始。

Next, our 3D Class 6 gen semis similarly have a promising outlook with the developer and Discover now well contracted in the Americas and the recently idle deliverer also well positioned. We believe for work commencing in 2026. Our 2 Globetrotter drillships are being bid toward a number of opportunities in the intervention market. Depending on the outcome of these bids, we'll evaluate whether to remove one of these units from the marketed fleet.

其次，我們的 3D 第 6 代半拖車同樣前景看好，開發商和 Discover 目前在美洲簽訂了良好的合同，最近閒置的交付商也處於有利地位。我們相信這項工作將於 2026 年開始。我們的 2 艘 Globetrotter 鑽井船正在競標幹預市場的多個機會。根據這些投標的結果，我們將評估是否將其中一個單位從市場機隊中移除。

And then as you look at the remaining semis from the legacy Diamond fleet, we've obviously picked up some additional backlog on a few of those units recently. And we will continue to evaluate their longer-term marketability on a case-by-case basis, particularly as SPS and recontracting thresholds dictate.

然後，當您查看傳統 Diamond 艦隊剩餘的半拖車時，我們顯然最近在其中一些船上增加了一些額外的積壓訂單。我們將繼續根據具體情況評估它們的長期適銷性，特別是根據衛生和植物檢疫措施（SPS）和重新簽約門檻的規定。

Now on the jackups. In the traditional North Sea and Norway market, current demand is 27 jackups and marketed utilization of 93%. We have also had some recent success in deploying -- more jackups in less traditional markets such as Argentina, Poland and Spain. When expanding the harsh jackup realm to include these niche markets, the total demand picture is 31 rigs with market utilization of 94%. So the overall fundamentals are in good shape despite the disappointing fact that the Norway jackup market remains relatively subdued, which is holding back the potential earnings of our CJ-70 rigs.

現在討論自升式鑽井平台。在傳統的北海和挪威市場，目前的需求為27座自升式鑽井平台，市場利用率為93%。我們最近也在阿根廷、波蘭和西班牙等非傳統市場部署了更多自升式鑽井平台，並且取得了一些成功。當嚴苛自升式鑽井平台領域擴大到包括這些利基市場時，總需求量為 31 座鑽井平台，市場利用率為 94%。因此，儘管挪威自升式鑽井平台市場仍然相對低迷，這令人失望，阻礙了我們 CJ-70 鑽井平台的潛在獲利，但整體基本面仍然良好。

And we do have active and encouraging conversations behind all of our jackups with near-term rollovers, including the Intrepid resilient and Regina Allen.

我們對所有即將交付的自升式鑽井平台都進行了積極和令人鼓舞的對話，其中包括「Intrepid」號和「Regina Allen」號。

So I'm going to pause there and turn it over to Richard now to discuss the financials and 2025 guidance.

所以我要在這裡暫停一下，現在把時間交給理查德討論財務狀況和 2025 年的指導。

Good morning or good afternoon all. In my prepared remarks today, I will briefly review the highlights of our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results provide an update on our synergy progress and then touch on our outlook for 2025.

大家早安或下午好。在今天的準備好的演講中，我將簡要回顧我們第四季度和 2024 年全年業績的亮點，介紹我們的協同效應進展情況，然後談談我們對 2025 年的展望。

Starting with our quarterly results. The fourth quarter was our first full quarter as a combined company with Diamond. As such, the type of period comparisons we usually reference have less relevance. So I will forgo the prior period comps for the purposes of this review. Contract Drilling Services revenue for the fourth quarter totaled $882 million.

從我們的季度業績開始。第四季是我們與 Diamond 合併後的第一個完整季度。因此，我們通常參考的時期比較類型就不那麼相關了。因此，為了本次審查的目的，我將放棄前期的比較。第四季合約鑽井服務收入總計 8.82 億美元。

Adjusted EBITDA was $319 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 34%. Adjusted EBITDA was positively impacted by approximately $40 million related to the early termination of the Noble deliverer but was also adversely impacted by approximately six weeks of idle time on [Jerry Susa] at the end of the year between contract scopes.

調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.19 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 34%。調整後的 EBITDA 受到與 Noble 交付商提前終止相關的約 4,000 萬美元的正面影響，但也受到共同範圍之間 [Jerry Susa] 年底約六週的閒置時間的不利影響。

Q4 cash flow from operations was $136 million. Net capital expenditures were $134 million, and free cash flow was $2 million, which was burdened with transaction costs related to Diamond as well as a temporary increase in net working capital, which we expect to reverse in early 2025.

第四季經營活動現金流為 1.36 億美元。淨資本支出為 1.34 億美元，自由現金流為 200 萬美元，這受到與 Diamond 相關的交易成本以及淨營運資本的暫時增加的影響，我們預計這一情況將在 2025 年初逆轉。

For the full year 2024, we generated $3.1 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in adjusted EBITDA. As summarized on Page 5 of the earnings presentation slides, our total backlog as of February 17 stands at $5.8 billion. Current backlog includes approximately $2.4 billion that is scheduled for revenue conversion during the remainder of 2025. As a reminder, our backlog excludes reimbursable revenue as well as revenues from ancillary services.

2024 年全年，我們的營收為 31 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 11 億美元。正如收益簡報投影片第 5 頁所總結的那樣，截至 2 月 17 日，我們的總積壓訂單為 58 億美元。目前積壓訂單包括約 24 億美元，計劃於 2025 年剩餘時間內進行收入轉換。提醒一下，我們的積壓訂單不包括可報銷收入以及輔助服務收入。

Before walking through our 2025 guidance, I would like to provide a brief update on our integration activities related to the Diamond acquisition. We are pleased with how the integration is progressing and the level of buy-in we are seeing across all levels of the organization. And as Robert mentioned, we are making significant strides in realizing our previously announced synergies of [$100 million] with just over half of a run rate basis realized to date. We have a high degree of confidence that the remainder of the synergies will be realized by the end of the year, and we'll have updates on our progress over the next couple of quarters.

在介紹我們的 2025 年指導方針之前，我想先簡單介紹一下與 Diamond 收購相關的整合活動。我們對整合的進展和整個組織層面的認同程度感到滿意。正如羅伯特所提到的，我們在實現先前宣布的 [1 億美元] 協同效應方面取得了重大進展，迄今為止已實現的運行率基礎略高於一半。我們高度相信，剩餘的協同效應將在今年年底前實現，並且我們將在接下來的幾個季度內更新進度。

We're flowing to Page 10 of the earnings slides. We're providing full year 2025 guidance as follows: total revenue in the range of $3.25 billion to $3.45 billion which includes approximately $150 million in other or reimbursable revenue, adjusted EBITDA between $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion in capital expenditures, which excludes customer reimbursements of between $375 million and $425 million. The mid of this revenue range is approximately 90% supported by Q1 to date revenues but firm backlog and options for the remainder of the year.

我們正在瀏覽收益幻燈片的第 10 頁。我們提供的 2025 年全年指引如下：總收入在 32.5 億美元至 34.5 億美元之間，其中包括約 1.5 億美元的其他或可報銷收入，調整後的 EBITDA 在 10.5 億美元至 11.5 億美元的資本支出之間，不包括 3.75 億美元至 4.75 億美元的客戶報銷。這一收入範圍的中間部分約有 90% 由第一季迄今的收入支持，但由今年剩餘時間的穩定積壓訂單和選擇支持。

Based on current visibility and contract sequencing, we anticipate Q1 adjusted EBITDA tracking marginally down by around approximately 5% quarter-on-quarter when excluding the Q4 impact of the contract termination. For full year 2025, we anticipate our jackup to contribute approximately 10% to 15% of our adjusted EBITDA.

根據目前的可見性和合約順序，我們預計，若排除第四季度合約終止的影響，第一季調整後的 EBITDA 將環比下降約 5%。到 2025 年全年，我們預計自升式鑽井平台將為我們調整後的 EBITDA 貢獻約 10% 至 15%。

Some other elements for 2025 to consider are as follows. We expect cash taxes to be approximately 12% of adjusted EBITDA and we expect cost to achieve the remaining synergies related to the Diamond transaction to be approximately $40 million for the full year 2025. Also, we will incur $26 million in BOP lease payments in 2025. although I would like to note that we are currently evaluating terminating these leaders when they expire in 2026. Our guidance reflects inflation rates in the range on average of 3% to 4% across various cost components.

2025年需要考慮的其他一些因素如下。我們預計現金稅約佔調整後 EBITDA 的 12%，我們預計實現與 Diamond 交易相關的剩餘協同效應的成本在 2025 年全年約為 4,000 萬美元。此外，我們將在 2025 年支付 2,600 萬美元的 BOP 租賃費用 但我想指出的是，我們目前正在評估在這些領導人於 2026 年到期時終止他們的職位。我們的指導反映了各個成本組成部分的平均通貨膨脹率在 3% 到 4% 之間。

As it relates to potential tariffs, it's clearly a very fluid situation. Our supply chain team is proactively working with our vendors to mitigate the impacts of any potential tariffs and some small level of price increases is assumed in our 2025 inflation outlook that underpins our guidance.

就潛在關稅而言，這顯然是一個非常不穩定的情況。我們的供應鏈團隊正在積極與供應商合作，以減輕任何潛在關稅的影響，並且在我們的指導方針所依據的 2025 年通膨展望中假設價格會出現小幅上漲。

Despite a more muted near-term outlook, we still expect 2025 to represent a nice step-up in free cash flow compared to last year. facilitated in part by lower CapEx following the peak of the 5-year SPS cycle in 2023 and 2024 for both the legacy Diamond and Noble fleet. And consistent with our past practice, we will look to deploy excess free cash flow after the dividend to share buybacks.

儘管短期前景較為低迷，但我們仍預期 2025 年的自由現金流將比去年大幅成長。部分原因是，在 2023 年和 2024 年傳統的 Diamond 和 Noble 船隊的 5 年 SPS 週期達到高峰之後，資本支出降低。與我們過去的做法一致，我們將尋求利用股利後的多餘自由現金流來回購股票。

With that, I'll pass the call back to Robert for closing remarks.

說完這些，我會把電話轉回給羅伯特，請他作結束語。

Thank you, Richard. In conclusion, we remain laser focused on safe and efficient drilling for our customers while navigating what we expect to be transitory demand softness over the near term. Despite some pockets of utilization gaps, we see high-end UDW day rates holding firm in the mid- to high 400s with a realistic path to higher levels based on plausible demand scenarios over the next couple of years. Fundamental drivers for our business are durable in nature, and therefore, this recent contracting role that has pushed things out to the right by a year or two is very likely to be self-correcting before long. And just to state it, nothing has changed in our medium- and long-term view about the demand for our services.

謝謝你，理查。總之，我們將繼續專注於為客戶提供安全且有效率的鑽探，同時應對短期內預計會出現的暫時性需求疲軟。儘管存在一些利用率缺口，但我們認為高端 UDW 日費率將保持穩定在 400 多美元的水平，並且根據未來幾年合理的需求情景，有可能上升到更高的水平。我們業務的基本驅動力本質上是持久的，因此，最近的這個承包角色將事情推遲了一兩年，很可能很快就會自我糾正。簡單來說，我們對我們服務的需求的中長期看法沒有任何改變。

Regardless, we feel extremely excited about what Noble is capable of producing either in a flatter world such as were confronted with it or in a more galvanized up cycle like we hope to see in '26 and '27 and beyond.

無論如何，我們對 Noble 能夠在我們所面臨的更加平坦的世界中，或者在我們希望在 26 年、27 年及以後看到的更活躍的上升週期中創造的東西感到非常興奮。

Now I'd just like to wrap up with a word of thanks to our employees. It's always a proud moment to see this closest to the wellhead earn recognition directly from our customers. So hats off to the crews of the Mick O'Brien who recently earned rig of the quarter for their outstanding performance for Qatar Energy LNG and also to the crews of the Noble Valiant who brought home deepwater rig of the year from Total Energies. These awards are a testament to the strong commitment to safety and performance demonstrated by the men and women on not just these, but all of our rigs each and every day. So thank you to all.

最後，我只想對我們的員工表示感謝。看到這款最接近井口的設備直接獲得客戶的認可，我們總是感到非常自豪。因此，我們向 Mick O’Brien 號的船員致敬，他們最近憑藉在卡達能源液化天然氣項目中的出色表現榮獲了本季度最佳鑽井平台獎；我們也向 Noble Valiant 號的船員致敬，他們從道達爾能源公司手中奪得了年度深水鑽井平台獎。這些獎項證明了不僅在這些鑽機上，而且在我們所有鑽機上工作的男女員工每天都表現出對安全和性能的堅定承諾。向大家表達感謝。

Be proud of what you do. The future is bright at Noble.

為你所做的事情感到自豪。諾布爾的前景一片光明。

We're ready to now to go to questions.

現在我們準備好回答大家的提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Aaron Rosenthal, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 的 Aaron Rosenthal。

My first question is on the Tier 1 drillship market. You highlighted, Robert, that you have some good prospects to get all of your Tier 1 drillships contracted maybe later this year, early '26. Can you maybe provide a little more detail on some of the opportunities for the Black Rhino, Voyager and Valiant?

我的第一個問題是關於一級鑽井船市場。羅伯特，你強調說，你很有可能在今年晚些時候，也就是 26 年初簽訂所有一級鑽井船的合約。您能否詳細介紹一下黑犀牛、航海者和勇士的一些機會？

Sure. Yes. Thanks, question I guess, we won't go into specifics as far as customers or tenders, of course, but I would say that we have a future programs. I would say there are more with '26 starts than '25 starts, but with '25 with some opportunities in '25. And those opportunities really, I would say, for are kind of across the golden triangle that we referenced.

當然。是的。謝謝，我想問的是，我們當然不會談論客戶或招標的具體細節，但我想說我們有一個未來的計劃。我想說 26 年的首發比 25 年的首發要多，但 25 年也有一些機會。我想說，這些機會確實存在於我們所提到的金三角地區。

And so some of those are tenders included in some of the tender stats we've given in the past, others are direct negotiations. But there is, I would say, an abundance of work out there that's being discussed.

其中一些是我們過去提供的一些招標統計數據中包含的招標，其他則是直接談判。但我想說，還有很多工作正在討論中。

Fair enough. And in the release, you highlighted how kind of leading-edge rates for 6 gen rigs kind of is across a fairly wide band, low 300s to low 400s. Help us think about what kind of governs the lower versus the upper end of that band? And how do you expect the market to play out maybe later this year where we're all dealing with a bit of an air pocket until you get to longer-term programs in 2026?

很公平。在發布會上，您強調了第六代鑽機的前緣速率如何跨越相當寬的頻段，從 300 多到 400 多。幫助我們思考什麼樣的因素決定了該範圍的下限和上限？您預計今年稍後市場將會如何發展？

Yeah, sure. So I think part of it depends on specific opportunities and and the need -- the technical needs for specific opportunities. So giving an example, our D-class submersibles, which we classify as sixth-generation rigs when competing against a drillship are going to need to bid at, I'd say, a higher discount to seventh generation than when -- when they're needed more specifically, which they are in several instances, actually that we're discussing right now where that discount shrinks. So sixth gen, I would say, of course, there are so many definitions now, but in sixth-gen, I would say, is probably also encompasses a slightly wider band of capabilities in terms of the assets in that cost, which is part of the reason for that range, and there are always -- where [sage] preferred, you're going to have higher discounts into the same part of your question, we see softness at the rest of this year. And generally speaking, like we've seen in times past.

是的，當然。所以我認為部分原因在於具體的機會和需求──具體機會的技術需求。舉個例子，我們的 D 級潛水器在與鑽井船競爭時被歸類為第六代鑽井平台，我認為，與第七代相比，它們的競標價格需要更高的折扣——更具體地說，在幾種情況下，它們都是需要的，實際上，我們現在正在討論折扣縮小的情況。因此，我想說，第六代，當然，現在有很多定義，但在第六代中，我想說，在資產成本方面，可能還涵蓋了稍微更廣泛的能力範圍，這也是該範圍的部分原因，並且總是有 - [Sage] 更喜歡的地方，你會在問題的同一部分獲得更高的折扣，我們看到今年剩餘時間的疲軟。一般來說，就像我們過去看到的那樣。

I'd say that the asset quality is our biggest differentiator here when customers have options on a couple of classes of rigs.

我想說，當客戶在幾類鑽孔機上都有選擇時，資產品質就是我們最大的區別因素。

Eddie Kim, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的艾迪金 (Eddie Kim)。

I just wanted to ask if you could kind of walk through the thought process for us on the decision to retire that the Meltem specifically, which I think caught many by surprise. But by all accounts, this was a very high-spec 7G drillship. And while I understand it's not free to stack the rig. At the same time, we have seen some multi-tract announced over the past several years, which does seem to pay for that reactivation expense and maybe some of the stacking costs within that initial term of the contract. So just curious if you could just expand a bit more for us on the thought process related to that decision.

我只是想問一下，您是否可以具體介紹一下我們決定退休 Meltem 的想法過程，我認為這個決定讓很多人感到驚訝。但從各方面來看，這都是一艘高規格的7G鑽井船。雖然我知道堆放鑽孔機不是免費的。同時，我們看到過去幾年中宣布了一些多軌道項目，這些項目似乎確實支付了重新激活費用，也許還支付了合約初始期限內的一些堆疊成本。我只是好奇您是否可以為我們稍微闡述與該決定相關的思考過程。

Yes. Sure, Eddie. So we watch everything closely, and we continuously run numbers on everything. And I think on the Meltem. A couple of things stand out.

是的。當然，艾迪。因此我們密切關註一切，並持續對一切進行統計。我對 Meltem 有自己的看法。有幾件事引人注目。

One, I certainly recognize that on paper, it's easy enough to craft a scenario where that rig could be in the money in that, call it, the option value of continuing to pay the stack costs could work. However, as we said in the script, we see the diminished call in the near term on stacked capacity. I mean, you need -- UDW numbers, excuse me, are down around 10 rigs here as we move through this year. And so as we look forward, we think that whatever color there would be on the Meltem has been pushed out several years, at least two or three years. And admittedly, that rig as well has actually never -- had never drilled a well for a customer to have been activated twice and then deactivated before it had actually drilled.

首先，我當然認識到，從理論上講，很容易設計出這樣一種情景：該鑽機可以獲得收益，也就是說，繼續支付堆疊成本的選擇權價值可以發揮作用。然而，正如我們在腳本中所說的那樣，我們看到短期內對堆疊容量的需求會減少。我的意思是，你需要——對不起，今年以來，UDW 數量下降了約 10 個鑽機。因此，展望未來，我們認為 Meltem 的任何顏色都將被推遲幾年，至少兩三年。並且不可否認的是，該鑽機實際上也從未——從未為客戶鑽過井，在實際鑽井之前曾兩次啟動然後停止運作。

And so we failed to see a likely scenario where that rig would make sense for us to bid that rig, especially considering that the contract durations that we see today and that we think we'll continue to see for a little bit now given the softness are short enough where in effectively any situation where we would bid that rig, we would be bidding it against available active fleet within our own fleet. And so we took the decision, which we think is the right decision to go ahead and move on.

因此，我們未能看到一個可能的情況，即我們競標該鑽井平台是合理的，特別是考慮到我們今天看到的合約期限，以及我們認為鑑於疲軟程度，我們現在將繼續看到的合約期限足夠短，實際上在任何情況下我們競標該鑽井平台，我們都會與我們自己船隊中的可用活躍船隊進行競標。因此我們做出了這個決定，我們認為這是繼續前進的正確決定。

Understood. Understood. That's very helpful. Just my follow-up is maybe -- just another one on rig retirements. You've taken kind of a market leadership role here in reactive in retiring the Meltem.

明白了。明白了。這非常有幫助。我的後續問題可能只是──又一個關於鑽孔機退役的問題。你們在退休 Meltem 的過程中發揮了市場領導作用。

Do you think others might start to see the market in a similar way others with 7G cold stacked drillship capacity and might start to retire their own drillships. So maybe ask it in a different way. And I guess, maybe over the next three years, let's say, what's your estimate on how many 7G drillships -- reactivations we could see over that time period? I would imagine it's not anywhere in the 4 to 5 range -- is it 1 to 2? Or could it possibly even be 0?

您是否認為其他人可能會開始以類似的方式看待市場？所以也許可以用不同的方式來詢問。我想，也許在未來三年內，您估計在這段時間內我們可以看到多少艘 7G 鑽井船重新投入使用？我認為它不在 4 到 5 的範圍內——而是 1 到 2 嗎？或者它甚至可能是 0？

That's kind of the million-dollar question. It requires, of course, a crystal ball. I think I would say if we use the numbers that we used in our prepared remarks -- were you going to need another year to 1.5 years to kind of get back to where we want it to be, call it, a year ago. And then from there, of course, there are a lot of macro factors that will determine where we go. I mentioned in my script, and I would repeat it that when we look at all of this, that we have a great -- we have a lot of cost for optimism in that late '26 and '27 and on period.

這是一個價值百萬美元的問題。當然，這需要一顆水晶球。我想說，如果我們使用我們在準備好的評論中使用的數字——你是否需要再花一年到一年半的時間才能回到我們想要的水平，也就是一年前。當然，從那時起，有許多宏觀因素將決定我們的走向。我在我的劇本中提到過，我想重複一遍，當我們回顧這一切時，我們會發現，在 26 年末和 27 年以及那段時期，我們為樂觀付出了很大的代價。

But we got to work through a lot of active supply before we get to the step rigs. And that's why we chose our words carefully saying that we think the call [on to 3] has been greatly diminished here recently.

但在開始階梯式鑽孔機之前，我們必須先完成大量的主動供應工作。這就是為什麼我們謹慎選擇措辭，表示我們認為最近這裡的[關於 3 的] 呼聲已大大減弱。

Fredrik Stene, Clarksons Securities.

克拉克森證券 (Clarksons Securities) 的 Fredrik Stene。

Robert and team, I hope you are well, and thank you for good color in the prepared remarks, as always. I wanted to touch a bit on 2025 guidance? Any way, I guess it relates still also to fleet optimization. I think Richard, you said around [0.9] of the EBITDA point would be secured by current contracts and options and potentially some expansions if I heard it correctly. But on the backlog slide, you say that for 20%, 25% -- sorry, from 2025, you have 55% of available base contracted.

羅伯特和團隊，我希望你們一切都好，也感謝你們一如既往地在準備好的發言中表現出色。我想要稍微談談 2025 年的指導？無論如何，我猜它仍然與車隊優化有關。理查德，如果我沒聽錯的話，你說的大約 [0.9] 的 EBITDA 點將透過現有合約和選擇權以及可能的一些擴張來確保。但在積壓訂單的幻燈片上，您說的是 20%、25% — — 抱歉，從 2025 年起，您已經簽訂了 55% 的可用基礎合約。

So obviously, there's not going to be full utilization of all units as we move through 2025. So you have taken out some of the contact assets now. What are your thinking on taking out or stacking some of your warm assets. And as a side question to that, I would be interested to hear around the Globetrotters I and II. You are saying that they are not being bid into the drilling market going forward?

顯然，到 2025 年，所有單位的利用率都不會充分提高。因此，您現在已經取出了一些聯絡資產。您打算取出或堆積一些熱資產嗎？順便問一下，我有興趣聽聽有關 Globetrotters I 和 II 的情況。您是說他們今後不會再被競標進入鑽井市場了嗎？

Can you view those as effectively out of the drilling market forever? Or do you think they can eventually return?

您是否認為這些將永遠退出鑽井市場？或者您認為他們最終能夠回歸？

Sure. A lot of questions in there, Fredrik. Starting on the -- side. So you're right. So basically, approximately actually just over 90% of that top line at the midpoint is in backlog today, right?

當然。這裡面有很多問題，弗雷德里克。從--側開始。所以你是對的。所以基本上，今天中間點的頂線實際上大約 90% 以上都處於積壓狀態，對嗎？

So 65%, I think that you're referencing, I think that includes -- that does include kind of our cold stacked assets as well. And so as we look forward to 2025, we're basically saying that we've got just the 10% of top line to go get to a midpoint. There's obviously a cost element to that as well to the extent that we don't find that work. I'll note that if you go back to 2024 and 2023, I think in a similar kind of range -- billings, if you will, from a contract coverage perspective. I think both years, we've managed to actually rate intolerance as well.

所以我認為你提到的 65% 包括了 - 也包括了我們的冷堆疊資產。因此，當我們展望 2025 年時，我們基本上是說，我們只需要 10% 的營收就可以達到中點。如果我們找不到那種工作，那顯然也會有成本因素。我要指出的是，如果您回顧 2024 年和 2023 年，我認為從合約覆蓋範圍的角度來看，它們的範圍是相似的——如果您願意的話，可以這麼說。我想這兩年我們也確實對不容忍程度進行了評估。

So I think we feel our guidance, obviously, we up to go again in 2025. There's obviously some meaningful amount of kind of white space assumed, especially in our 7 gen assets in 2025. I think that's maybe why it's lower than where kind of consensus was. And I think the key drivers around the 2025 guidance.

因此我認為，我們顯然感覺到了我們的指導，我們將在 2025 年再次出發。顯然，假設存在一定數量的空白，特別是在我們 2025 年的第 7 代資產。我認為這也許就是為什麼它低於共識水平的原因。我認為關鍵驅動因素是 2025 年指引。

And I can speak to the globe chatter. So we've been saying for a while that we've been chasing the intervention market, and we continue to believe those rigs are well suited for that market. And we also believe that, that market will be a strong and growing market going forward. So in the near term, we've got several open, I'd say conversations for multiyear work that actually could use both of the Globetrotters, so that's in the intervention market. We mentioned in the script that there's a couple little exceptions there, Black Sea, et cetera, where we would consider drilling with those rigs in the standard there is that it wouldn't be cannibalizing our other drilling rigs.

我可以向全世界發表演說。因此，我們一直在說，我們一直在追逐幹預市場，我們仍然相信這些鑽孔機非常適合該市場。我們也相信，未來該市場將是一個強勁且不斷成長的市場。因此，在短期內，我們有幾個開放的、我想說的多年工作的對話實際上可以使用兩位環球旅行者，所以這是在幹預市場。我們在劇本中提到，那裡有幾個小例外，例如黑海等等，我們會考慮按照標準使用這些鑽井平台進行鑽探，這樣就不會蠶食我們其他的鑽井平台。

But we do not see ourselves outside of those exceptions chasing the drilling market with the Globetrotters. And we'll look to see how the results of this work that we're chasing. And if for some reason, we're having trouble contracting into that market and then later in the year, we'll make a decision about whether to further reduce costs on one of those units.

但我們並不認為自己會成為這些例外中的一員，與哈林籃球隊一起追逐鑽井市場。我們將觀察我們所追求的這項工作的成果。如果由於某種原因，我們無法進入該市場，那麼在今年晚些時候，我們將決定是否進一步降低其中一個部門的成本。

This is very helpful. Thank you very much as always, beyond tried to wrap five questions into one. So that's why (inaudible) I will start there. We're only allowed one question. So I appreciate you answering my one question, of course.

這非常有幫助。一如既往地感謝您，Beyond 嘗試將五個問題合併為一個。這就是為什麼（聽不清楚）我要從那裡開始。我們只允許問一個問題。因此，我當然很感謝您回答我的問題。

So thank you, and have a good day.

謝謝你，祝你有美好的一天。

Kurt Hallead, Benchmark.

庫爾特·哈勒德（Kurt Hallead），基準。

Thanks as always for the color. So Robert, you mentioned that you think there's going to be a rebound in demand coming off this low in 2025 which is good to hear. I'm kind of curious then if you got to try to connect the dots, right? So you referenced that one of your competitors also referenced that this morning. So it seems like is definitely -- the discussions are definitely happening.

一如既往地感謝你提供的顏色。羅伯特，您提到，您認為 2025 年需求將從低點反彈，這是一個好消息。那麼我有點好奇，您是否嘗試過將這些點連接起來，對嗎？您提到，您的一個競爭對手今天早上也提到了這一點。因此看起來肯定——討論肯定在進行。

With the incremental net demand coming. Do you expect there -- what kind of pricing improvement would you expect off of 2025 levels on contracts that you are looking to sign in, say, 2026.

隨著增量淨需求的到來。您預計，對於您希望簽署的合約（例如 2026 年），其價格會以 2025 年的水平為基礎出現什麼樣的改善？

Yes. That's a great question. So I think most -- my guess is that most people see what we see in terms of this demand. And I'm sure that everyone sees what we see around things getting slightly just tying it worse before they get better. But I think that the underlying, call it, mid- to long-term drivers still remain quite strong.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。因此我認為大多數人——我猜大多數人都看到了我們所看到的這種需求。我相信每個人都看到了我們所看到的情況，事情在好轉之前先是稍微惡化了一點。但我認為，潛在的、所謂的中長期驅動因素仍然相當強勁。

And so we gave, I guess, a couple of facts around where we've seen recent fixtures in the mid- to high 400s. So I think that defines the market right now. And I don't know where we go from here, but I do think that the reality is that there is a fair amount of work out there that is pretty evident starting mainly in 2026. So we see -- we kind of think about '25 as maybe being just kind of maybe stepping back to 2023 or some sort of analogy like that, where the optimism remains just after a slight flash flat period rather than the linear things of the run.

因此，我想，我們提供了一些事實，圍繞著最近的比賽，我們看到了 400 多度的比賽。所以我認為這定義了當前的市場。我不知道我們接下來會怎樣，但我確實認為，現實情況是，從 2026 年開始，有相當多的工作要做，這一點相當明顯。所以我們看到——我們認為 25 年可能只是回溯到 2023 年或類似的某種類比，在經歷一段輕微的閃現平緩期之後，樂觀情緒依然存在，而不是像運行中的線性現像那樣。

Okay. Fair enough. And then -- and look, I know you referenced that the jackup business is going to represent somewhere between 10% to 15% of EBITDA as you go into 2025. Some recent things that I've seen coming out of Norway would suggest a desire to increase drilling-related activity. I know it's kind of a two-rate type market, right, jackup and harsh environment semis.

好的。很公平。然後 — — 我知道您提到，到 2025 年，自升式鑽井平台業務將佔 EBITDA 的 10% 到 15% 之間。最近我看到挪威的一些動向表明他們希望增加鑽探相關活動。我知道這是一種兩種利率類型的市場，對吧，自升式鑽井平台和惡劣環境半潛式鑽井平台。

So what are you seeing in Norway as it relates to the prospect to get some tailwinds in demand for your jack-up assets there?

那麼，您認為挪威的自升式鑽井平台需求前景如何？

Yes. Yes. So obviously, we saw that as well. And we do think that the potential for an additional unit or two of demand on the jackup side in Norway is better now than it's been in several years. So I guess I would say we're hopeful.

是的。是的。顯然，我們也看到了這一點。我們確實認為，挪威自升式鑽井平台方面增加一到兩台鑽井平台的潛力比過去幾年還要大。因此我想說我們充滿希望。

I would say that, that market for us has remained, I would say, almost surprisingly stable considering the political headwinds that everybody faces in a couple of different countries over there, Norway and the UK and really others as well. So we've effectively maintained utilization here in the 90% kind of range. And we're hopeful that, that we're over the hump in terms of the worst regulatory headwinds and that we can perhaps improve that from here.

我想說的是，考慮到挪威、英國和其他國家等不同國家所面臨的政治阻力，我們的市場仍然出奇地穩定。因此，我們有效地將利用率維持在 90% 左右的範圍內。我們希望，我們已經克服了最嚴重的監管阻力，並且可能從現在開始改善。

Noel Parks, Tuohy Brothers.

諾埃爾‧帕克斯 (Noel Parks)、陶伊兄弟 (Tuohy Brothers)。

So I was wondering, as this era of strength in pricing call it, post-COVID have continued on. Is sort of the relatively lower visibility that results from saying a year or two ago, having new contracts in place that we're going to give you a big bump up in day rate, obviously, from the 200s in the 400s or something. As there are sort of fewer of those highly visible increases in the hopper. Is that sort of influential and you're getting just a bit more conservative in your program moving forward?

所以我想知道，正如人們所稱的定價強勢時代一樣，後疫情時代將會繼續下去。這在某種程度上是由於一兩年前我們簽訂了新合同，導致可見度相對較低，顯然我們會大幅提高日薪，從 200 多美元提高到 400 多美元左右。因為料斗中那些明顯增加的數量已經減少了。這是否會產生一定的影響？

Yes. Well, look, I think rates have been relatively flat for quite some time now in the high 400s. We had some low 500s. And so maybe they're more mid- to high 400s now. But I don't know that -- I don't know that that's necessarily changed our outlook dramatically.

是的。嗯，看，我認為利率目前在 400 多點的較高水平上已經保持相對平穩一段時間了。我們有一些低於 500 的成績。所以現在他們的分數可能更多是在 400 多分。但我不知道——我不知道這是否一定會徹底改變我們的觀點。

I continue to reference work that's being discussed being contracted, that's under negotiation, a lot of direct negotiations out there and still a fair number of public tenders.

我繼續參考正在討論、簽約、談判中的工作，其中有許多直接談判，還有相當多的公開招標。

So I think if there were a program, short-term program that came up for 2025 for I think it's pretty obvious that people might be aggressive for something like that given that assuming people see what we see -- but I think what I said previously holds true that there is a fair amount of work out there that's on the price and I think, remains supportive of certainly the Tier 1 market.

因此，我認為，如果有一個針對 2025 年的計劃，短期計劃，我認為很明顯，人們可能會積極地參與這樣的事情，因為假設人們看到我們所看到的東西——但我認為，我之前所說的是正確的，那裡有相當多的工作與價格有關，我認為，這仍然支持一級市場。

Great. And I was just wondering from the producer standpoint, it sort of seems that by sort of taking the risk that when they decide to move forward with wells that they will be able to get the equipment they want a -- without price inflation that's too dramatic. In other words, there seems to be confidence that not everyone is going to be rushing through the door exactly the same time. I just wonder -- to me that also means that they are comfortable sort of assuming that the macro situation in pricing is going to be strong enough that they don't feel any -- or they don't feel much urgency to sort of bring value forward by being active now, maybe at better rates than they could get a couple of years now. So is there sort of some embedded macro confidence you see in -- for the longer term as opposed to the near term that you see from operating -- when you talk with them?

偉大的。我只是從生產商的角度來看，似乎透過承擔一定的風險，當他們決定繼續開採油井時，他們將能夠獲得他們想要的設備——而不出現太劇烈的價格上漲。換句話說，人們似乎有信心，並不是每個人都會在同一時間衝進門。我只是想知道——對我來說，這也意味著他們願意假設定價的宏觀形勢將足夠強勁，以至於他們感覺不到任何——或者他們並不急於通過現在積極行動來提前帶來價值，也許以比現在幾年更好的利率。那麼，當您與他們交談時，您是否看到了某種內在的宏觀信心——相對於您從營運中看到的短期內看，長期內看？

Well, there is. I mean, I guess there's kind of competing realities a little bit. One reality is that spot pricing today is down $15, $20 or where it was a year or 18 months ago. And the kind of middle part of the curve is down as well.

嗯，有。我的意思是，我想這其中存在著一些相互矛盾的現實。現實情況是，如今的現貨價格比一年前或 18 個月前下跌了 15 美元、20 美元。曲線的中間部分也下降了。

On the other hand, most of what had been what has been taken to FID or what is being contemplated to go to FID has been profitable and let us well below any of the middle part of the curve. And so in my mind, there is -- other reasons we have so much optimism. In my mind, there's plenty of work that is profitable at where the curve currently sits -- and I think we're seeing that play through with all these tendering activity that we're talking about negotiating activity that we're talking about. However, I think we've said in past calls, there is no rush really to make that uncommitted. Just given like we mentioned in the script, a pretty comfortably supplied market right now.

另一方面，大多數已經採取 FID 行動或正在考慮採取 FID 行動的項目都是盈利的，並且讓我們遠低於曲線的中間部分。因此在我看來，我們如此樂觀還有其他原因。在我看來，在曲線目前所處的位置，有很多工作是可以盈利的——而且我認為，我們在談論的所有這些招標活動、談判活動中都看到了這種盈利現象。不過，我認為我們在過去的通話中已經說過，沒有必要急於做出承諾。正如我們在腳本中提到的那樣，目前市場供應相當充足。

And so it's this balance of the work being there, and we believe being profitable balanced with a catalyst to actually go ahead and commit the dollars and continue forward with everything.

因此，這就是工作的平衡，我們相信獲利與催化劑之間的平衡可以真正推動我們投入資金，繼續推進一切工作。

And I agree with you to your point that the general availability, especially on the drilling side, not -- some other categories that are a little bit different on the supply. But on the drilling side, there's supply, so there isn't really a catalyst on supply constraint right now. And so we think that for 2025, that the discipline certainly will continue to govern us of the decisions.

我同意你的觀點，即整體可用性，特別是在鑽井方面，而不是——其他一些類別在供應上略有不同。但在鑽井方面，有供應，因此目前還沒有真正影響供應限制的催化劑。因此我們認為，到 2025 年，紀律必將繼續引導我們的決策。

Josh Jane, Daniel Energy Partners.

喬希·簡 (Josh Jane)，丹尼爾能源合作夥伴。

I wanted to go back to the Globetrotter rigs a bit. You talked about potentially removing one from the marketed fleet. And it sounds like over the next six to nine months, we'll sort of have an answer on that. And based on the number of opportunities you're going to put those into. My question is, are there any modifications that you potentially may need to make to one of those assets to make them more competitive in the intervention space?

我想稍微回到 Globetrotter 鑽機上。您談到了可能從市場機隊中移除一架飛機。聽起來在接下來的六到九個月裡我們就會找到答案。並根據您要投入的機會數量。我的問題是，您是否需要對其中某項資產進行某些修改，以使它們在幹預領域更具競爭力？

And if so, could you speak to that, just if you're thinking about that over the medium to long term.

如果是的話，您能否談談這個問題，只是您從中長期考慮這個問題。

No. I think anything really the [GT2 has NPD] which is really more of a drilling tool. Other than that, most of the intervention equipment is transferable. And really, the vast bulk of that package comes from service companies instead of our size.

不。我認為 [GT2 具有 NPD] 實際上更像是一種鑽孔工具。除此之外，大多數幹預設備都是可轉讓的。而實際上，這項計劃的絕大部分來自於服務公司，而不是我們的規模。

Okay. And then just to follow up on tariffs. I know in your cost guidance -- about some level of inflation was assumed. It's obviously a very quickly moving target across a number of geographies, but could you give any more details about maybe upside or downside scenarios for what they could ultimately look like? And just how you're thinking about managing that.

好的。然後只是跟進關稅。我知道，在您的成本指導中，已經假設了一定程度的通貨膨脹。顯然，這是一個在多個地區迅速發展的目標，但您能否提供更多細節，說明它們最終可能出現的上行或下行情境？以及您正在考慮如何管理這一點。

Sure. Sure, Josh. Obviously, it's a excellent fluid situation, and we candidly -- impossible to predict like the real impact -- it's very likely that times would result in the price increases, which was more likely not to be passed on to us as well. And so embedded in our guidance is some level of inflation really across the entire cost base in the kind of 3% to 4% type area. We're obviously working as closely as we can.

當然。當然，喬希。顯然，這是一個非常不穩定的情況，我們坦率地說——不可能預測其真正的影響——很可能會導致價格上漲，而這很可能不會轉嫁給我們。因此，我們的指導思想中確實包含整個成本基礎的某種程度的通貨膨脹，範圍在 3% 到 4% 之間。我們顯然正在盡可能密切地合作。

We've been in our suppliers around this, but obviously, it's an incentive fluid situation, something that we're managing on a daily basis.

我們一直與供應商討論這個問題，但顯然，這是一個激勵流動的情況，也是我們每天都在管理的事情。

David Smith, Pickering Energy Partners.

大衛史密斯 (David Smith)，Pickering Energy Partners。

Like the US Gulf was one of the bright spots in the deep water market last year, right, we saw increasing lead times and good price momentum with most of the 7 gen capacity booked through the end of '25, by the end of September last year. Contracting really slowed down in Q4. I don't see any contracts for [seven rigs] signed in the Gulf year-to-date. And -- that could be available soon, including, I guess, the Valiant next month.

就像美國墨西哥灣是去年深水市場的亮點之一一樣，我們看到交貨時間不斷增加，價格勢頭良好，截至去年 9 月底，大部分 7 代產能都已預訂至 25 年底。第四季的合約簽約量確實放緩了。我還沒看到今年迄今在墨西哥灣地區簽署任何[七座鑽井平台]的合約。而且 —— 這些可能很快就會上市，我想包括下個月的 Valiant。

So I was hoping you could help with some color on what you've seen happen in the US Gulf going from a -- run on forward availability last year to having some near-term availability of [seven-year] rigs now? And how you're thinking about the Valiant and Black Rhino opportunity set and if either has been bid outside the Gulf?

所以我希望您能介紹一下美國墨西哥灣的情況，從去年遠期供應緊張到現在（七年期）鑽井平台的短期供應緊張？您如何看待 Valiant 和 Black Rhino 的機會集，以及它們是否已經在海灣地區以外進行過競標？

Yes, sure. I mean -- so I guess a couple of things. We continue to see the US as kind of flat to current in the midterm. We think it's obviously going to dip down a little bit, just look at our own fleet.

是的，當然。我的意思是——我猜有幾件事。我們繼續認為美國中期選舉的前景將持平至當前水準。我們認為它顯然會下降一點，看看我們自己的船隊就知道了。

And so we were disappointed around some of the decisions, drilling decisions that affected our own fleet. I think probably the difference between our guidance and consensus is explained largely by the Black Rhino. And that's a place where we really expect to continue to work through the year.

因此，我們對一些決定感到失望，一些鑽探決定影響了我們自己的艦隊。我認為，我們的指導和共識之間的差異很大程度上可能是由黑犀牛造成的。我們確實希望在這一年繼續在這裡工作。

And so I think the US -- and look, again, these are more, I would say, more independents that are affecting our fleet in the US. And I would say that the explanation I gave to the previous question around discipline and current spot pricing, all of what's playing into this. I would say is as pervasive among independents in the US as it is anywhere else in the world.

因此我認為，美國——再說一遍，我想說，這些更多的是獨立公司，它們正在影響我們在美國船隊的。我想說的是，我對上一個問題的解釋與紀律和當前現貨定價有關，所有這些都與此有關。我想說，這種現像在美國獨立人士中和世界其他地方一樣普遍。

That's a place that can move quickly. There is obvious supply availability. So people can ramp down quickly and ramp up quickly more quickly in the US than anywhere else in the world I would argue. And so I think you're seeing that play out here in '25 for the reasons previously stated.

那是一個可以快速移動的地方。供應明顯充足。因此，我認為，美國比世界任何其他地方都能更快地實現產能削減和產能提升。所以我認為，您會在 25 年看到這種情況的發生，原因如上所述。

I think the West Africa, where things can't be ramped down or reach up as quickly, really provides most of the explanation for where we are today versus where we had hoped to be, call it, a year ago. And the good news is that we see a lot of that coming through. We mentioned in the prepared remarks, We do a lot of that coming through, and we do see, I think, some of the drivers there being, call it regulatory, but perhaps legitimate delays rather than question marks are trying to delay just on account of spot pricing. So we kind of went through a script. I will repeat it, but we see all of that work all potentially coming back as we get into '26, which is one of the reasons we're perhaps more optimistic than you may have expected here in the call.

我認為西非的情況確實在很大程度上解釋了我們今天的狀況與我們一年前所希望的狀況之間的差異，因為那裡的狀況無法迅速減緩或上升。好消息是，我們看到很多這樣的成果正在實現。我們在準備好的評論中提到，我們已經做了很多這樣的工作，我認為，我們確實看到其中的一些驅動因素，稱之為監管，但也許是合理的延遲，而不是問號，只是因為現貨定價而試圖延遲。因此我們基本上是按照劇本來做。我再重複一遍，但我們看到，當進入 26 年時，所有這些工作都有可能恢復，這也是我們可能比您在電話會議中預期的更樂觀的原因之一。

I appreciate it. And if I could ask a quick follow-up. I thought Q4 SG&A was surprisingly low given the first full quarter of including the Diamond fleet. Is this a good base level to think of go forward? Or was there anything one-off contributing to the low Q4 SG&A figure?

我很感激。我是否可以快速問一個後續問題。我覺得，考慮到包括鑽石車隊在內的第一個完整季度，第四季度的銷售、一般及行政開支奇地低。這是一個可以考慮繼續前進的良好基礎水平嗎？或有什麼一次性因素導致第四季銷售、一般及行政費用數據較低？

Yes. I think, Dave, I think that's a decent estimate going forward. Obviously, the majority of the synergies in the Diamond transaction are G&A related. As we sit here today, we realized about kind of 50% of those on a run rate basis. And so hopefully, as we move -- as well, we see some benefit there as well through 2025, right?

是的。戴夫，我認為這是一個合理的未來估計。顯然，Diamond 交易中的大部分協同效應都與 G&A 相關。今天我們坐在這裡，按運行率計算，我們已經實現了其中約 50% 的成長率。因此，希望隨著我們的進步 — — 到 2025 年，我們也能看到一些好處，對吧？

And as we sit here today, by the end of 2025, we would expect to be less than 100% of the synergies on that deal.

而今天，我們預計到 2025 年底，該交易的綜效將低於 100%。

There are no further questions at this time. With that, I will now turn the call back over to Ian MacPherson for final closing remarks. Please go ahead.

目前沒有其他問題。說完這些，我現在將電話轉回給伊恩·麥克弗森 (Ian MacPherson)，請他做最後的結束語。請繼續。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Noble, and we'll look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Have a great day.

感謝大家今天的參與。我們感謝您對 Noble 的關注，我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes your conference call. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，你們的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。