挪威郵輪 (NCLH) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Business Update and Fourth Quarter Full Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Maria, and I'll be the operator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder to all participants that this conference call is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加挪威郵輪控股公司業務更新和 2021 年第四季度全年收益電話會議。我的名字是瑪麗亞，今天我將擔任接線員。 （操作員說明）作為對所有參與者的提醒，此電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mark Kempa. Mr. Kempa, please proceed.

我現在想將會議轉交給您的主持人 Mark Kempa。肯帕先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Maria, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining Frank and I for our fourth quarter and full year 2021 earnings and business update call. Frank will begin the call with opening commentary, after which I will follow to discuss our financials before handing the call back to Frank for closing remarks. We will then open the call for your questions.

謝謝你，瑪麗亞，大家早上好。感謝您加入我和弗蘭克的 2021 年第四季度和全年收益和業務更新電話會議。弗蘭克將以開場評論開始電話會議，之後我將隨後討論我們的財務狀況，然後將電話交回弗蘭克以結束髮言。然後，我們將打開電話詢問您的問題。

As a reminder, this conference call is being simultaneously webcast on the company's Investor Relations website at nclhltd.com/investors. We will also make reference to a slide presentation during this call, which may also be found on our Investor Relations website. Both the conference call and the presentation will be available for replay for 30 days following today's call.

提醒一下，本次電話會議同時在公司的投資者關係網站 nclhltd.com/investors 上進行網絡直播。我們還將在本次電話會議期間參考幻燈片演示，該幻燈片也可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。電話會議和演示文稿都將在今天電話會議後的 30 天內進行重播。

Before we begin, I would like to cover a few items. Our press release with the fourth quarter and full year 2021 results was issued this morning and is available on our Investor Relations website. This call includes forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from such statements. These statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statement contained in our earnings release.

在開始之前，我想介紹一些項目。我們今天上午發布了關於 2021 年第四季度和全年業績的新聞稿，可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱。本次電話會議包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致我們的實際結果與此類陳述存在重大差異。這些聲明應與我們收益發布中包含的警示聲明一起考慮。

Our comments may also reference non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in our earnings release and presentation.

我們的評論也可能參考非公認會計準則財務指標。與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標和其他相關披露的對賬包含在我們的收益發布和演示文稿中。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Frank Del Rio. Frank?

有了這個，我想把電話轉給弗蘭克德爾里奧。坦率？

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. And as always, I hope that all of you as well as your loved ones remain healthy and safe.

謝謝你，馬克，大家早上好，感謝你今天加入我們。和往常一樣，我希望你們所有人以及你們所愛的人都保持健康和安全。

Before going into my main commentary, I'd like to address the recent geopolitical issue, which escalated last night. The tense situation in Ukraine is regrettable. And our hopes are that the conflict ends quickly with minimal impact to the safety and welfare of those in the region. We are following the situation carefully as it impacts our voyages in the area. We have no vessels in the region until late May. And we will be updating guests on our plans and about affected itineraries as needed.

在開始我的主要評論之前，我想先談談昨晚升級的最近的地緣政治問題。烏克蘭的緊張局勢令人遺憾。我們希望衝突能迅速結束，對該地區人民的安全和福利影響最小。我們正在仔細跟踪情況，因為它會影響我們在該地區的航行。直到 5 月下旬，我們在該地區沒有船隻。我們將根據需要向客人更新我們的計劃和受影響的行程。

We have quite a bit to share with you today, ranging from our resumption of operations to the impacts of the Omicron surge to recent developments with the CDC. We'll also cover the booking and pricing landscape in our plans for the return to service of the balance of our fleet. So let's get started.

今天我們有很多東西要與您分享，從我們的恢復運營到 Omicron 激增的影響，再到 CDC 的最新發展。我們還將在我們的剩餘機隊恢復服務計劃中涵蓋預訂和定價環境。所以讓我們開始吧。

It seems like just yesterday that we launched our Great Cruise Comeback in late July of '21 after 500 days of no cruise operations. In the 5 months that followed through the end of 2021, we safely carried over 230,000 happy guests around the globe, everywhere from Europe to Alaska and points in between, delivering the unique and upscale vacation experiences that only our three award-winning brands can provide. This is evidenced by our brands having achieved the highest customer satisfaction scores in our history and a reflection of the deep commitment from our crew members, who are as energized as ever to be back in the high seas serving our guests.

好像就在昨天，我們在 21 年 7 月下旬在 500 天沒有郵輪運營之後推出了我們的 Great Cruise Comeback。在接下來到 2021 年底的 5 個月裡，我們安全地運送了超過 230,000 名快樂的客人，從歐洲到阿拉斯加以及介於兩者之間的任何地方，提供只有我們三個屢獲殊榮的品牌才能提供的獨特而高檔的度假體驗.我們的品牌在我們的歷史上取得了最高的客戶滿意度分數，這也證明了我們船員的堅定承諾，他們一如既往地精力充沛地回到公海為我們的客人服務。

In addition, onboard spend by guests during the quarter continued to exceed all expectations and reached all-time highs. And we delivered these unparalleled vacation experiences in the safest manner possible with protocols that are unmatched by any other area of the hospitality sector. I'll repeat once again that our #1 priority is and always will be the health and safety of our guests, crew and the communities we serve. And that commitment has never been more evident than in a month since our return to service.

此外，本季度客人的機上消費繼續超出所有預期並創歷史新高。我們以最安全的方式提供了這些無與倫比的假期體驗，其協議是酒店業任何其他領域都無法比擬的。我將再次重申，我們的第一要務是並將永遠是我們的客人、船員和我們服務的社區的健康和安全。自我們恢復服務以來，這一承諾從未像現在這樣明顯。

With over 230,000 guests sailing on our vessels in 2021, our COVID positivity rate was miniscule and certainly a fraction of what has been the case in the population at large. Our science-backed protocols, centered on vaccination and preboarding testing, provide a safe vacation experience that is not duplicated anywhere in the world. Today, and because of the rapid decrease in prevalence and in severity, the prospective view of the pandemic is rapidly changing across the globe. Municipalities, cities, states, countries, schools, institutions of all kinds and private businesses alike are all moderating protocols as the public health environment improves.

2021 年有超過 230,000 名客人乘坐我們的船隻航行，我們的 COVID 陽性率微乎其微，當然只是整個人口中的一小部分。我們以疫苗接種和登機前測試為中心的科學支持協議提供了世界上任何地方都無法複製的安全假期體驗。今天，由於流行率和嚴重程度的迅速下降，對大流行的前瞻性看法正在全球範圍內迅速改變。隨著公共衛生環境的改善，市政當局、城市、州、國家、學校、各種機構和私營企業都在緩和協議。

In the past, protocols were usually pared back slowly and only when cases had receded. But we have seen many instances, Denmark and Iceland being one of the best and most recent examples, where protocols and restrictions have been moderated despite high or even increasing caseloads. This latest normal now takes into account the diminished severity of the virus and balances the extent of necessary protocols with the need to resume daily life.

過去，協議通常會慢慢縮減，並且只有在病例消退時才會縮減。但是我們已經看到了很多例子，丹麥和冰島是最好的和最近的例子之一，儘管案件量很高甚至增加，但協議和限制已經得到緩和。現在，這一最新常態考慮到了病毒嚴重程度的降低，並在必要協議的範圍與恢復日常生活的需要之間取得了平衡。

The confidence for society to take these actions is mainly due to the availability and widespread uptake of vaccines, new therapeutics and broad immunity. And an NCL cruise ship is one of the few places in the world where you can be assured that at least 95% of the people around you are fully vaccinated. And we're pleased to report that the rapidly improving public health environment has allowed us also to follow the easing of COVID-related protocols occurring in broader society.

社會採取這些行動的信心主要是由於疫苗、新療法和廣泛免疫的可用性和廣泛採用。 NCL 遊輪是世界上為數不多的可以確保您周圍至少 95% 的人完全接種疫苗的地方之一。我們很高興地報告，快速改善的公共衛生環境使我們也能夠遵循在更廣泛的社會中出現的與 COVID 相關的協議的放寬。

You can see on the return-to-service plan on Slide 4, a new phase, returning to normal, that reflects those changes and advances. Our brands recently announced that effective March 1, masking for guests across our fleet will be optional while taking into account local guidelines, if any. Also, beginning March 1 and in conjunction with the new CDC guidelines, which I'll discuss in a moment, the Norwegian brand will begin allowing all guests under the age of 12 to sail on an ship fleet-wide.

您可以在幻燈片 4 的恢復服務計劃中看到，這是一個恢復正常的新階段，它反映了這些變化和進步。我們的品牌最近宣布，自 3 月 1 日起，在考慮當地準則（如果有）的情況下，我們車隊中的客人可以選擇佩戴口罩。此外，從 3 月 1 日開始，結合新的 CDC 指南（我稍後會討論），挪威品牌將開始允許所有 12 歲以下的客人乘坐全船隊航行。

These two steps greatly expand the addressable market for our largest and most family-oriented brand by allowing families to travel together regardless of age and without the mandate of wearing a mask. This announcement was scheduled to provide plenty of time and opportunity for families to plan their summer vacations with us. And all this comes at a time when last week, we had the lowest number of positive pre-embarkation cases per 1,000 guests by far since launching service last July during the Delta surge.

這兩個步驟極大地擴展了我們最大和最以家庭為導向的品牌的潛在市場，允許家庭不分年齡和不戴口罩的要求一起旅行。該公告計劃為家庭提供充足的時間和機會與我們一起計劃暑假。所有這一切都發生在上週，自去年 7 月達美航空激增期間推出服務以來，我們每 1,000 名乘客的登機前陽性病例數量是迄今為止最低的。

Recently, we were happy to see significant regulatory progress being made as we received clarification from the CDC on updated protocols for sailing originating from the U.S. ports. Back in January, our three brands were the first in the industry to opt into the CDC's voluntary COVID-19 program for cruise ships operating in U.S. waters. When our brands first opted in, the program had not yet been finalized. However, last week, as protocols to the program were confirmed, our brands reaffirmed their commitment made in March and mid-January of opting into the program, demonstrating once again our industry-leading and unwavering dedication to health and safety with protocols that appropriately reflects the public health environment.

最近，我們很高興看到 CDC 就從美國港口出發的航行更新協議進行了澄清，因此監管取得了重大進展。早在 1 月份，我們的三個品牌就成為業內第一個選擇加入 CDC 針對在美國水域運營的遊輪的自願 COVID-19 計劃的品牌。當我們的品牌首次選擇加入時，該計劃尚未最終確定。然而，上週，隨著該計劃的協議得到確認，我們的品牌重申了他們在 3 月和 1 月中旬做出的選擇加入該計劃的承諾，再次展示了我們行業領先且堅定不移地致力於健康和安全的協議，適當地反映公共衛生環境。

The program our brands have opted into calls for at least 95% of vaccine-eligible guests and crew be vaccinated. Given the differences in demographics of our brands, a vaccination requirement will differ somewhat with Norwegian requiring guests aged 12 and over to be fully vaccinated while Oceania and Regent will continue to require all passengers to be fully vaccinated. Regardless, we will continue to require that 100% of crew across our fleet be fully vaccinated and are working towards having all crew members boosted by April 1.

我們的品牌選擇參與的計劃要求至少 95% 的符合疫苗條件的客人和工作人員接種疫苗。鑑於我們品牌的人口統計差異，疫苗接種要求將有所不同，挪威航空要求 12 歲及以上的乘客全面接種疫苗，而大洋洲和麗晶航空將繼續要求所有乘客全面接種疫苗。無論如何，我們將繼續要求我們艦隊中 100% 的船員完全接種疫苗，並努力爭取在 4 月 1 日之前讓所有船員得到加強。

The new updated protocols also allow for mask wearing to be optional as is the case with more and more societal activities. All the industry has ever asked is to be treated the same as other areas of society. The CDC's new voluntary program is a positive step in that direction, which we expect will lead to further easing of protocols as the pandemic continues its retreat. In the meantime, we will continue to maintain best-in-class protocols centered on vaccinations and testing for the health and safety of all onboard and to offer guests the safest vacation experience possible.

新的更新協議還允許戴口罩是可選的，因為越來越多的社會活動就是這種情況。整個行業所要求的就是與社會其他領域一樣受到同等對待。 CDC 的新自願計劃是朝著這個方向邁出的積極一步，我們預計隨著大流行繼續消退，這將導致協議進一步放鬆。與此同時，我們將繼續保持以疫苗接種和測試為中心的一流協議，以確保所有機上人員的健康和安全，並為客人提供最安全的假期體驗。

The resumption of service across our fleet was not without its challenges. As difficult an endeavor as it was to pause and find safe haven for our entire fleet back in the spring of 2020, it is even a greater feat to smoothly bring back the fleet into operation and to deliver the world-class level of hospitality and service our brands are known for. I want to thank team members across our organization, from shipboard to shoreside, for the hard work, dedication and passion they displayed in returning our fleet to service.

我們的機隊恢復服務並非沒有挑戰。早在 2020 年春季，我們的整個機隊就停下來尋找安全的避風港，這是一項艱鉅的任務，但讓機隊順利恢復運營並提供世界一流的款待和服務更是一項更大的壯舉我們的品牌是眾所周知的。我要感謝我們整個組織的團隊成員，從船上到岸邊，感謝他們在讓我們的船隊恢復服務時所表現出的辛勤工作、奉獻精神和熱情。

I also want to thank our loyal past and new-to-brand guests for entrusting us with what, for many, has been their first taste of travel since the pandemic began 2 years ago. And a special and heartfelt thanks to the travel agency community, who have weathered the pandemic like no other. We stuck together through the industry's toughest times and are now reengaged to bring us all back stronger than ever. And finally, a thanks to our shareholders, lenders, shipyard partners and the broader financial community for your support and confidence in our company, supporting our growth story and the opportunities that lie ahead.

我還要感謝我們忠實的過去和新加入品牌的客人，他們將自 2 年前大流行開始以來對許多人來說是他們第一次體驗旅行的機會委託給我們。並特別衷心感謝旅行社社區，他們以前所未有的方式經受住了這場大流行。我們在行業最艱難的時期團結在一起，現在重新參與，讓我們所有人都比以往任何時候都更強大。最後，感謝我們的股東、貸方、造船廠合作夥伴和更廣泛的金融界對我們公司的支持和信心，支持我們的成長故事和未來的機遇。

The story of the past quarter was obviously all about the Omicron wave. Unfortunately, Omicron did not pick the best of times to make its appearance. Just as we were experiencing a solid rebound in bookings during October and November after the Delta wave began to wane and buoyed by a very successful Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions, the impact of Omicron began to appear in early December.

上個季度的故事顯然都是關於 Omicron 浪潮的。不幸的是，Omicron 沒有選擇最好的時機出現。正如我們在 10 月和 11 月經歷了在 Delta 浪潮開始減弱並受到非常成功的黑色星期五和網絡星期一促銷活動的提振後，預訂量的穩健反彈，Omicron 的影響在 12 月初開始顯現。

First, a Norwegian vessel, whose itinerary featured multiple calls to South African port, had its operations paused as Omicron quickly spread there and additional travel restrictions were imposed. Canceling targeted sailings on certain vessels operating in the Caribbean and South America during the quarter also became necessary as an addition to travel restrictions, ports began implementing difficult, sometimes onerous requirements for docking. Concurrently, booking volumes slowed and cancellation of existing bookings increased.

首先，一艘挪威船隻的航線多次停靠南非港口，由於 Omicron 迅速蔓延到南非港口並實施了額外的旅行限制，其運營暫停。在本季度取消在加勒比海和南美洲運營的某些船舶的定向航行也變得必要，因為除了旅行限制之外，港口開始實施困難的，有時是繁重的對接要求。與此同時，預訂量放緩，現有預訂取消量增加。

While Omicron did impact our business in the near term, primarily for close-in sailings in the first and second quarters, it did provide the opportunity to once again demonstrate our resilience as a company and as an industry. Our ethos throughout the pandemic has emphasized being nimble and ready to adapt. Our management team has maneuvered to what no other industry has ever had to do and has done a remarkable job doing so. The silver lining to this pandemic is that it has brought our team even closer together and fortified the strong collaborative culture we already enjoyed and that we truly believe is one of our competitive advantages. As we return to normalcy, that positive culture will only grow stronger.

雖然 Omicron 確實在短期內影響了我們的業務，主要是第一季度和第二季度的近距離航行，但它確實提供了再次展示我們作為一家公司和一個行業的韌性的機會。在整個大流行期間，我們的精神一直強調保持敏捷並準備好適應。我們的管理團隊已經完成了其他行業從未做過的事情，並且在這方面做得非常出色。這場大流行的一線希望是，它讓我們的團隊更加緊密地聯繫在一起，鞏固了我們已經享有的強大協作文化，我們堅信這是我們的競爭優勢之一。當我們恢復正常時，這種積極的文化只會變得更強大。

Now for some good news. The impact of Omicron are waning week-by-week. While the short term has been impacted, the following points illustrate the strong underlying consumer demand that gives us confidence about the trajectory of our business in the future. First, of the guest cancellations that occurred during December and the January period, the majority were for sailings in the first and second quarters of 2022, demonstrating sustained consumer confidence in sailings further out.

現在有一些好消息。 Omicron 的影響每週都在減弱。雖然短期受到影響，但以下幾點說明了強勁的潛在消費者需求，這使我們對未來業務的發展軌跡充滿信心。首先，在 12 月和 1 月期間發生的客人取消中，大部分是 2022 年第一季度和第二季度的航行，這表明消費者對更遠的航行有持續的信心。

Second, beginning in mid-January, net booking volumes began improving and continue to do so and accelerate sequentially week-over-week. Third, booked position for each quarter in 2022 when compared to 2019 sequentially improved over the prior quarter. Fourth, despite the erosion in booked position due to the Delta and Omicron surges, as of today, second half 2022 booked position is in line with what was an extraordinarily strong 2019, while 2023, compared to pre-pandemic 2020, is in an even better position, in fact, a record booked position.

其次，從 1 月中旬開始，淨預訂量開始改善，並繼續改善，並逐週增加。第三，與 2019 年相比，2022 年每個季度的預定頭寸比上一季度有所改善。第四，儘管由於 Delta 和 Omicron 激增導致預訂頭寸受到侵蝕，但截至今天，2022 年下半年的預訂頭寸與 2019 年異常強勁的情況一致，而與大流行前的 2020 年相比，2023 年處於平衡狀態更好的位置，其實是一個創紀錄的預定位置。

Fifth, again, as of today, pricing for 2022 and 2023 sailings remained higher for the full year versus 2019 and pre-pandemic 2020, respectively, even when including the diluted effect of future cruise credits. Our core go-to-market principle of marketing to fill versus discount to fill is performing like a champ as we have not and will not chase short-term occupancy by sacrificing price, which only results in long-term and perhaps even permanent damage to brand equity as we have seen over the years in other situations.

第五，同樣，截至今天，與 2019 年和 2020 年大流行前相比，全年 2022 年和 2023 年航行的定價仍然較高，即使包括未來郵輪積分的稀釋效應。我們市場營銷的核心原則是填補市場與折扣填補的表現就像一個冠軍，因為我們沒有也不會通過犧牲價格來追逐短期入住率，這只會導致長期甚至可能是永久性的損害多年來我們在其他情況下看到的品牌資產。

Sixth, despite sailing cancellations and slight changes in our return-to-service plans due to Omicron, all of our vessels are expected to sail by early May and in time for the peak summer season. And lastly, we are seeing our largest and most important distribution channels coming back to full strength. Every day, we are seeing more and more business being booked by our travel partners in a shift which bodes well for the industry as the vibrant travel agent community is vital and amplifies the reach of our message to consumers, which translates into more and better bookings.

第六，儘管由於 Omicron 導致航行取消和我們的恢復服務計劃略有變化，但我們所有的船隻預計將在 5 月初啟航，並及時趕上夏季旺季。最後，我們看到我們最大和最重要的分銷渠道正在全面恢復。每天，我們都看到越來越多的業務被我們的旅行合作夥伴預訂，這對行業來說是個好兆頭，因為充滿活力的旅行社社區至關重要，並擴大了我們向消費者傳達的信息，從而轉化為更多更好的預訂.

I want everyone to recall that in the past, our industry was accustomed to successfully managing through bumps in the road. Whenever there was a natural or geopolitical or some other black swan-type event that impacted bookings, you could almost count like clockwork that after 8 to 10 weeks of quiet, booking patterns would rebound. We've seen this pattern occur twice already during the pandemic, once last spring after the initial variant ceded and vaccinations became prevalent and most recently, last fall, right after the Delta surge began to wane.

我希望每個人都記得，過去，我們的行業習慣於成功地克服道路上的坎坷。每當有自然或地緣政治或其他一些影響預訂的黑天鵝事件時，您幾乎可以像發條一樣計算，在 8 到 10 週的安靜之後，預訂模式會反彈。我們已經看到這種模式在大流行期間已經發生過兩次，一次是去年春天在最初的變種被放棄並且疫苗接種變得普遍之後，最近一次是去年秋天，就在三角洲激增開始減弱之後。

With the public still a bit shellshocked by the sudden emergency -- emergence and equally dramatic decline of Omicron, what our business needs now is a few weeks of quiet with no new variants or surges for confidence to return and momentum to take hold. Our experts in the SailSAFE Global Health and Wellness Council, headed by Dr. Scott Gottlieb, believe we're at that point right now. So while Omicron did indeed have an immediate but short-term impact on our business, it was an impact that simply shifted expectations and the timing of our recovery by about 3 months.

由於公眾仍然對突如其來的緊急情況感到震驚——Omicron 的出現和同樣劇烈的衰落，我們的業務現在需要的是幾週的安靜，沒有新的變體或激增，以恢復信心和保持勢頭。我們在由 Scott Gottlieb 博士領導的 SailSAFE 全球健康與保健委員會的專家相信我們現在正處於這一點。因此，儘管 Omicron 確實對我們的業務產生了直接但短期的影響，但這種影響只是將我們的預期和恢復時間推遲了大約 3 個月。

That shift in timing is coinciding with the shift in societal attitudes that I mentioned earlier from avoiding the virus at all cost to living with it. It's something we really didn't see after the Delta wave but is gaining more and more momentum post Omicron. We are seeing more and more living of life. And we once again began hearing the term revenge travel being batted about. These shifts bode well for our company as vacationers look to once again explore the world but to do so in a safe manner.

這種時間上的轉變與我之前提到的社會態度的轉變相吻合，即從不惜一切代價避免病毒到與病毒共存。這是我們在 Delta 浪潮之後真正沒有看到的東西，但在 Omicron 之後獲得了越來越多的動力。我們看到越來越多的生活。我們再次開始聽到“復仇旅行”這個詞受到抨擊。這些轉變對我們公司來說是個好兆頭，因為度假者希望再次探索世界，但要以安全的方式進行。

I'll be back shortly with closing comments. But for now, I'll turn the call over to Mark for his commentary and the progress of our financial action plan. Mark?

我很快就會回來發表結束評論。但現在，我將把電話轉給 Mark，讓他發表評論以及我們財務行動計劃的進展情況。標記？

Thank you, Frank. As mentioned earlier, going from a complete standstill to having over 70% of our capacity sailing by year-end, through not one but two COVID variants, has been an impressive effort in coordination and logistics. I give my thanks and kudos to our operations and hotels teams, both shipside and shoreside, for executing on this truly herculean endeavor. We have been deliberate and disciplined in bringing our fleet back gradually and have kept self-imposed load factor limitations in place to ensure the safety of our guests and crew members.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。如前所述，通過不是一個而是兩個 COVID 變體，從完全停頓到年底我們超過 70% 的運力航行，在協調和物流方面是一項令人印象深刻的努力。我向我們的運營和酒店團隊表示感謝和讚譽，無論是在船上還是在岸邊，他們執行了這項真正艱鉅的任務。我們在逐步恢復我們的機隊方面經過深思熟慮和自律，並保持自我施加的載客率限制，以確保我們的客人和船員的安全。

I am pleased to report that strong ticket pricing and onboard revenue spend drove positive contribution from the fleet that operated in the quarter, despite the headwinds we faced from the remnants of Delta as well as the onset of the Omicron variant. This result reinforces our belief in the fundamental strength of the business as we reach 85% of our capacity back in operation during the first quarter and the entirety of our fleet back in service in the second quarter to capture demand for the peak summer travel season.

我很高興地報告，強勁的票價和機上收入支出推動了本季度運營的機隊的積極貢獻，儘管我們面臨來自達美航空的殘餘以及 Omicron 變體的出現帶來的不利影響。這一結果加強了我們對業務基本實力的信心，因為我們在第一季度達到了 85% 的運力恢復運營，並且我們的整個機隊在第二季度恢復服務，以滿足夏季旅遊旺季的需求。

Based on our current trajectory, we expect to reach a key milestone in our recovery as the net cash provided by operating activities is expected to turn positive in the second quarter. In addition, we expect the second half of 2022 to be profitable for the company on an adjusted net income basis, marking an important transition for managing the daily business primarily around liquidity needs to shifting our focus back to maximizing profitability as we exit these unprecedented times. That said, we remain keenly focused on maintaining a strong liquidity position through this transition period.

根據我們目前的軌跡，我們預計將在我們的複蘇中達到一個關鍵的里程碑，因為經營活動提供的淨現金預計將在第二季度轉為正數。此外，我們預計 2022 年下半年公司將在調整後的淨收入基礎上實現盈利，這標誌著主要圍繞流動性需求管理日常業務的重要轉變，隨著我們退出這些前所未有的時期，將我們的重點轉移到最大化盈利能力.也就是說，我們仍然非常專注於在這個過渡時期保持強勁的流動性頭寸。

Moving to Slide 8. Our cash and short-term investments for the quarter decreased by approximately $200 million on a net basis to $1.75 billion. This includes $1 billion of cash burn associated with operations, including interest and capital expenditures, partially offset by nearly $600 million of advanced ticket sale collections and other working capital changes. Our quarter-ending cash and short-term investment balances were also boosted by an incremental $260 million associated with a series of balance sheet optimization transactions we executed in November.

轉到幻燈片 8。我們本季度的現金和短期投資淨減少約 2 億美元，至 17.5 億美元。這包括與運營相關的 10 億美元現金消耗，包括利息和資本支出，部分被近 6 億美元的預售票款和其他營運資金變動所抵消。我們在 11 月執行的一系列資產負債表優化交易也增加了 2.6 億美元，這也增加了我們季度末的現金和短期投資餘額。

More importantly, our liquidity at the end of the fourth quarter was $2.7 billion, including a $1 billion commitment through August 2022, which remains undrawn. In addition, our latest transaction earlier this month puts us in a strong position to manage the resumption of principal payments that had been deferred during the pandemic. Furthermore, as the environment improves, our own cash generation engine will be fully up and running, which will further strengthen our balance sheet.

更重要的是，我們在第四季度末的流動資金為 27 億美元，其中包括到 2022 年 8 月的 10 億美元承諾，該承諾仍未提取。此外，我們本月早些時候的最新交易使我們能夠管理在大流行期間被推遲的本金支付的恢復。此外，隨著環境的改善，我們自己的現金生成引擎將全面啟動並運行，這將進一步加強我們的資產負債表。

A key part of that cash generation engine is our advanced ticket sales build. In the fourth quarter, gross advanced ticket sales increased by 40% to $700 million versus a build of $500 million in the prior quarter. On a net basis, this was partially offset by revenue recognized for sailings in the quarter and refunds and cancellations associated with Omicron. We continue to be encouraged by the strong and accelerating advanced ticket sales build as it reflects robust demand for our product as we bring the fleet back to service.

該現金生成引擎的一個關鍵部分是我們先進的門票銷售構建。第四季度，預售票總銷售額增長 40% 至 7 億美元，而上一季度為 5 億美元。在淨額基礎上，這被本季度確認的航行收入以及與 Omicron 相關的退款和取消部分抵消。我們繼續對強勁且加速的高級門票銷售增長感到鼓舞，因為它反映了我們使機隊恢復服務時對我們產品的強勁需求。

Turning to cash burn. Our monthly burn in the fourth quarter was $345 million, which was slightly better than our guidance of $350 million, despite some cost pressures from the global supply constraints. As we look ahead to the first quarter, we expect cash burn to increase to approximately $390 million as we ramp up to 85% of our capacity in operation by the end of the quarter. This cash burn includes costs incurred for ships coming online in the second quarter, such as crewing the fleet ahead of the restart, restocking of inventory and repositioning of certain ships to their initial home ports.

轉向燒錢。儘管全球供應限制帶來了一些成本壓力，但我們在第四季度的每月消耗為 3.45 億美元，略好於我們 3.5 億美元的指導。展望第一季度，我們預計現金消耗將增加至約 3.9 億美元，因為到本季度末我們的運營能力將提高到 85%。這種現金消耗包括船舶在第二季度上線所產生的成本，例如在重新啟動之前為船隊配備船員、補充庫存以及將某些船舶重新定位到其最初的母港。

As a reminder, and consistent with our prior commentary, cash burn does not include cash inflows associated with current or future bookings nor contribution from ships that have already restarted service. However, it is important to note that we expect cash inflows to accelerate as our fleet continues to come online, resulting in our cash flow from operations expected to turn positive in the second quarter.

提醒一下，並且與我們之前的評論一致，現金消耗不包括與當前或未來預訂相關的現金流入，也不包括已經重新開始服務的船舶的貢獻。然而，值得注意的是，隨著我們的機隊繼續上線，我們預計現金流入將加速，導致我們的運營現金流預計在第二季度轉為正數。

Moving to the balance sheet. You may recall last quarter, we talked about pivoting to a more offensive approach as part of our financial recovery plan as shown on Slide 13. Since last quarter, our team has executed a series of transactions in November and February to begin the journey of optimizing our balance sheet. Let me share some key highlights with you, which are summarized on Slide 10.

轉移到資產負債表。您可能還記得上個季度，我們談到了轉向更具進攻性的方法，作為我們財務復甦計劃的一部分，如幻燈片 13 所示。自上個季度以來，我們的團隊在 11 月和 2 月執行了一系列交易，開始了優化之旅我們的資產負債表。讓我與您分享一些關鍵亮點，幻燈片 10 對此進行了總結。

In November 2021, we completed a series of balance sheet and cash flow optimization transactions, which reduced the company's annual interest expense, decreased leverage, extended the debt maturity profile and may lower diluted shares outstanding. Incrementally, in February, the company raised approximately $2.1 billion through a series of debt transactions. Proceeds from these transactions were used to redeem the remaining outstanding balances of the 12.25% senior secured notes due 2024 and the 10.25% senior secured notes due 2026 and will also be used to make principal and interest payments on scheduled amortization due in the near term.

2021 年 11 月，我們完成了一系列資產負債表和現金流優化交易，降低了公司的年度利息支出，降低了槓桿率，延長了債務期限，並可能降低稀釋後的流通股。 2 月份，該公司通過一系列債務交易逐步籌集了約 21 億美元。這些交易的收益用於贖回 2024 年到期的 12.25% 優先有擔保票據和 2026 年到期的 10.25% 優先有擔保票據的剩餘未償還餘額，還將用於支付近期到期的預定攤銷本金和利息。

This transaction extended our debt maturity profile and released certain collateral consisting of certain vessels, private islands and intellectual property. The combined benefit of these transactions reduces our annual cash interest expense by approximately $75 million. As is evident from the transactions I just covered, our treasury, accounting, finance and legal teams, amongst others, have been extremely busy. And I want to recognize and thank them for their tremendous amount of work and effort they put in for us to complete these transactions.

該交易延長了我們的債務期限，並釋放了包括某些船隻、私人島嶼和知識產權在內的某些抵押品。這些交易的綜合收益使我們的年度現金利息支出減少了約 7500 萬美元。從我剛剛介紹的交易中可以看出，我們的財務、會計、財務和法律團隊等都非常忙碌。我要承認並感謝他們為我們完成這些交易所做的大量工作和努力。

Turning to inflation. Similar to all other industries, we are experiencing upward pressure on costs in certain areas such as food, perishables and other supplies that are impacted by the global supply chain constraints. Recent geopolitical developments have also pushed fuel curves higher. However, as you can see on Slide 20, approximately 40% of our total consumption for 2022 and approximately 25% of our consumption for 2023 is hedged and affords us partial protection from the recent spike in prices. In addition, some of our major costs such as labor, also have a long term -- have long-term agreements, which provide predictability in our operating cost structure.

轉向通貨膨脹。與所有其他行業類似，我們在某些領域（例如受全球供應鏈限制影響的食品、易腐爛食品和其他供應品）的成本面臨上行壓力。最近的地緣政治發展也推高了燃料曲線。但是，正如您在幻燈片 20 中看到的那樣，我們 2022 年總消費量的約 40% 和 2023 年約 25% 的消費量被對沖，為我們提供了部分保護，使其免受近期價格飆升的影響。此外，我們的一些主要成本，如勞動力，也有長期的——有長期協議，這為我們的運營成本結構提供了可預測性。

While inflationary pressures persist, the most recent consumer spending numbers remain robust. At a more micro level, we have seen clear evidence of this in the onboard spend from guests aboard our ships and pricing for future cruises that Frank touched on earlier. In fact, onboard spend per person per day continues to be up meaningfully versus record 2019 levels. We've also provided incremental guidance on certain key metrics like depreciation and amortization, interest expense, fuel consumption and capital expenditures, all of which can be referenced on Slide 21.

儘管通脹壓力持續存在，但最近的消費者支出數據依然強勁。在更微觀的層面上，我們已經從船上客人的船上消費和弗蘭克早些時候談到的未來游輪定價中看到了明確的證據。事實上，與 2019 年的創紀錄水平相比，每人每天的機上支出繼續顯著上升。我們還就折舊和攤銷、利息費用、燃料消耗和資本支出等某些關鍵指標提供了增量指導，所有這些都可以在幻燈片 21 中引用。

As I look ahead, I am encouraged by the continued positive news we are seeing, including the decline in COVID cases, the new guidance provided to the cruise industry by the CDC and the steady march back to normalcy in wider society. We are confident that the demand for our fantastic brands and unparalleled vacation experiences will continue strengthening back to pre-pandemic levels. This strength is clearly reflected in our forward booked position for the second half of 2022 and full year 2023.

展望未來，我對我們看到的持續積極消息感到鼓舞，包括 COVID 病例的下降、疾病預防控制中心為郵輪業提供的新指導以及更廣泛的社會穩步恢復正常。我們相信，對我們出色品牌和無與倫比的度假體驗的需求將繼續增強至大流行前的水平。這種優勢清楚地反映在我們對 2022 年下半年和 2023 年全年的遠期預訂頭寸中。

And our growth profile over the coming years is as robust as ever as we take delivery of 9 spectacular and margin-accretive ships across all 3 brands between now and 2027, increasing our capacity by 50% compared to 2019. More importantly, this management team has time and again generated outsized returns on incremental capacity. And we look to continue this trend as we focus on rebuilding and growing our business.

從現在到 2027 年，我們在所有 3 個品牌中交付了 9 艘壯觀且可增加利潤的船舶，我們未來幾年的增長狀況與以往一樣強勁，與 2019 年相比，我們的運力增加了 50%。更重要的是，這個管理團隊一次又一次地在增量容量上產生了巨大的回報。我們希望繼續這一趨勢，因為我們專注於重建和發展我們的業務。

Lastly, Frank touched on this, and I couldn't agree more, that a business is only as strong as the people behind it. Our team has demonstrated incredible resilience working through these unprecedented times. We are undoubtedly stronger today than we were before entering the trenches of this pandemic. So as we look to the future, our team is focused on managing the controllable and staying nimble. As the landscape evolves, we will continue to adapt and create value for our shareholders, team members and communities we serve. Our management team is ready and eager to return our business back to pre-pandemic levels of significant cash flow generation and profitability combined with a strong balance sheet.

最後，弗蘭克談到了這一點，我完全同意，一個企業的強大取決於它背後的人。我們的團隊在這些前所未有的時期表現出令人難以置信的韌性。毫無疑問，我們今天比進入這場大流行的戰壕之前更強大。因此，當我們展望未來時，我們的團隊專注於管理可控和保持敏捷。隨著形勢的發展，我們將繼續適應並為我們所服務的股東、團隊成員和社區創造價值。我們的管理團隊已準備好並渴望將我們的業務恢復到大流行前的水平，即顯著的現金流產生和盈利能力以及強大的資產負債表。

With that, I'll turn it back to Frank for closing comments.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給弗蘭克來結束評論。

Thank you, Mark. And before we wrap up our prepared remarks, I'd like to provide an update on our global sustainability program, Sail & Sustain, which Slide 14 outlines key accomplishments and milestones. We are committed to driving a positive impact on society and the environment through the advancement of this program. And we reached several important milestones this past year, including releasing our first ESG report announcing our long-term climate action strategy and goal to reach carbon neutrality. We also made several advances since just our last earnings call.

謝謝你，馬克。在我們結束準備好的評論之前，我想介紹一下我們全球可持續發展計劃 Sail & Sustain 的最新情況，幻燈片 14 概述了關鍵成就和里程碑。我們致力於通過推進該計劃對社會和環境產生積極影響。在過去的一年裡，我們達到了幾個重要的里程碑，包括發布了我們的第一份 ESG 報告，宣布了我們的長期氣候行動戰略和實現碳中和的目標。自上次財報電話會議以來，我們也取得了一些進展。

We took the opportunity during the voyage suspension period to accelerate installation of exhaust gas cleaning systems or scrubbers nearly 2 years ahead of schedule. We successfully completed our nearly $200 million multiyear investment that covered 13 ships, representing approximately 70% of our operational capacity with these state-of-the-art systems, which improved our environmental footprint by significantly reducing emissions, including sulfur oxides and improving air quality. In fact, ships equipped with this technology can reduce SOx emissions by up to 98%, allowing the ships to operate these systems within compliance in expanded areas throughout the world. Investments in technology such as scrubbers are an integral part of our climate action strategy.

我們利用停航期間的機會，提前近 2 年加快安裝尾氣淨化系統或洗滌器。我們成功完成了近 2 億美元的多年投資，涵蓋 13 艘船舶，約占我們運營能力的 70% .事實上，配備這項技術的船舶可以將 SOx 排放量減少高達 98%，從而使船舶能夠在全球範圍內擴大範圍內以合規的方式運行這些系統。對洗滌器等技術的投資是我們氣候行動戰略的一個組成部分。

We were also proud to be recognized as a leader in sustainable cruise terminal construction as we were the first in the world to receive the LEED Gold New Construction certification for our flagship terminal at PortMiami. The team designed our 188,000-square foot terminal, which welcomed guests for the first time last year, with innovation and sustainability at the forefront, creating a platform that optimizes the terminal's energy performance, indoor air quality, water efficiency, utilization of local materials and resources and much more. And we will continue to innovate towards our sustainability commitment, including further investment at our PortMiami terminal, where we are partnering with Miami-Dade County to add short power capabilities by fall of 2023.

我們也很自豪能夠被公認為可持續郵輪碼頭建設的領導者，因為我們是世界上第一個在邁阿密港的旗艦碼頭獲得 LEED 金級新建築認證的公司。該團隊設計了我們 188,000 平方英尺的航站樓，去年首次迎來了客人，將創新和可持續性放在首位，創建了一個優化航站樓能源性能、室內空氣質量、用水效率、當地材料利用和資源等等。我們將繼續創新以實現我們的可持續發展承諾，包括進一步投資我們的邁阿密港碼頭，我們正在與邁阿密戴德縣合作，在 2023 年秋季之前增加短期電力能力。

We know that initiatives such as these are important in supporting our goals. And our Board of Directors recognizes that ESG is a critical driver in achieving our corporate goals and long-term success. And for this reason, our Compensation Committee included an ESG metric in our annual short-term incentive plan for the first time. This metric involves the company making sufficient progress in setting greenhouse gas emission reduction targets during 2022 as determined by the Technology, Environmental, Safety and Security, or TESS, Committee of the Board of Directors. Our Board believes that this step towards shared accountability across the organization reinforces our commitment and ultimate goal of reaching carbon neutrality.

我們知道，諸如此類的舉措對於支持我們的目標很重要。我們的董事會認識到 ESG 是實現我們的企業目標和長期成功的關鍵驅動力。出於這個原因，我們的薪酬委員會首次將 ESG 指標納入我們的年度短期激勵計劃。該指標涉及公司在製定董事會技術、環境、安全和安保或 TESS 委員會確定的 2022 年溫室氣體減排目標方面取得足夠進展。我們的董事會認為，朝著整個組織共同承擔責任的這一步驟加強了我們實現碳中和的承諾和最終目標。

Before turning the call over to Q&A, I'd like to leave you with some key takeaways, which you can find on Slide 15. First, we remain focused on our voyage resumption plan with 85% of our fleet operational at the end of the quarter and the full fleet ready for the important peak summer season in May. Despite the impacts of Delta and Omicron, we are pleased with our cumulative booked position for 2022 and 2023 and the strong corresponding pricing that comes with it. And lastly, our priority remains to execute on our medium- and long-term financial recovery plans and to capitalize on our attractive growth profile over the coming years.

在將電話轉至問答環節之前，我想為您提供一些關鍵要點，您可以在幻燈片 15 上找到這些要點。首先，我們仍然專注於我們的航程恢復計劃，我們 85% 的船隊在結束時運營季度和完整的船隊為 5 月的重要夏季旺季做好準備。儘管受到 Delta 和 Omicron 的影響，但我們對 2022 年和 2023 年的累計預訂頭寸以及隨之而來的強勁相應定價感到滿意。最後，我們的首要任務仍然是執行我們的中長期金融復甦計劃，並在未來幾年利用我們有吸引力的增長前景。

We've covered quite a bit today in what has been an incredibly busy quarter and year. So I'll conclude our commentary now and open up the call for your questions. Operator?

今天，我們在一個非常繁忙的季度和年度中進行了相當多的報導。因此，我現在將結束我們的評論並打開電話詢問您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Steve Wieczynski from Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

So Frank and Mark, I guess, if I look at your daily -- your per diems, they were up, if my math is correct, somewhere around 20% relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. And if I compare those to some of your competitors, which again I might -- I know it's not directly apples-to-apples. But your competitors seem to be more in that low to mid-single-digit range. So I guess, the question is what drove those per diems so much higher, not only over 2019 but also versus your competitors as well?

所以弗蘭克和馬克，我想，如果我看一下你們的日常——你的每日津貼，如果我的數學是正確的，相對於 2019 年第四季度，它們上升了大約 20%。如果我將這些與一些你的競爭對手，我可能會 - 我知道這不是直接的蘋果對蘋果。但是您的競爭對手似乎更多地處於低到中個位數的範圍內。所以我想，問題是是什麼推動了這些每日津貼如此之高，不僅超過 2019 年，而且與你的競爭對手相比也是如此？

And thanks for the question. Look, it goes back to our core going-to-market principle of market to fill and not discounting to fill. At this stage of the recovery, having 4 or 5 more points of occupancy at the expense of lower pricing, which could have a very negative long-term effect on the brand's equity, is not the right move. And so it wasn't hard for us to resist following others and dropping prices to levels that I've never seen before. And so we were happy to see a year-over-year or '21 compared to 2019 improvement in ticket NPDs by roughly 10%. Onboard spend was over the top. And you're right, on a combined basis, our total net revenue on an NPD basis was up over 20%.

感謝您的提問。看，它回到了我們的核心市場原則，即市場填充而不是折扣填充。在復甦的這個階段，以降低價格為代價增加 4 或 5 個入住點，這可能對品牌資產產生非常負面的長期影響，這不是正確的舉措。因此，我們不難抗拒追隨他人並將價格降至我從未見過的水平。因此，我們很高興看到與 2019 年相比，票證 NPD 同比或 21 年提高了大約 10%。機上支出超出預期。你說得對，我們在 NPD 基礎上的總淨收入增長了 20% 以上。

Some of our competitors had flat improvement. So we're very pleased with that. And we think that if you're a long-term investor, and certainly we're a long-term management team, you would prefer maintaining that pricing structure, that pricing power that we've demonstrated, not just now during a pandemic, but year-after-year, as you know, we lead the industry in ticket yields and in onboard revenue yields in exchange for a couple of points of occupancy in a period where even the best of the operators are performing at roughly half of what they normally would. So we'll take that trade any day.

我們的一些競爭對手的進步持平。所以我們對此非常滿意。我們認為，如果你是一個長期投資者，當然我們是一個長期管理團隊，你會更願意維持我們已經展示的定價結構和定價能力，而不僅僅是現在在大流行期間，但是年復一年，如您所知，我們在機票收益和機上收益收益方面處於行業領先地位，以換取幾個入住點，即使是最優秀的運營商的表現也只有他們的一半通常會。所以我們隨時都會接受這筆交易。

Okay. Got you. And then second question, I'm going to ask this in a way, I hope isn't offensive or get you in trouble. But honestly, I think if we look at some of the changes the CDC has made relative to the cruise industry versus other forms of travel, I mean, to us, they honestly still seem somewhat archaic and outdated relative to what you guys are already doing from a protocol perspective. So the question is, I guess, why did you guys opt in to this program as it still seems somewhat outdated? Or is there a confirmation from them that you guys are on the right path and they're essentially going to leave you guys alone moving forward?

好的。得到你。然後是第二個問題，我將以某種方式問這個問題，我希望不會冒犯或給你帶來麻煩。但老實說，我認為如果我們看看 CDC 相對於其他旅行形式相對於郵輪業所做的一些改變，我的意思是，對我們來說，相對於你們已經在做的事情，老實說，它們似乎仍然有些過時和過時從協議的角度來看。所以問題是，我想，你們為什麼選擇加入這個計劃，因為它似乎仍然有些過時？或者他們有沒有確認你們走在正確的道路上，他們基本上會讓你們獨自前進？

It's not going to get me in trouble at all, Steve, because I've been very vocal throughout the pandemic as to the disappointment that we've all suffered at the hands of the CDC. The CDC didn't shut down any other industry for nearly 18 months. And the CDC continues to have policies towards us that are not seen anywhere in the industry, but we are making progress with them. I will tell you that it was not an easy decision to opt in.

史蒂夫，這根本不會給我帶來麻煩，因為在整個大流行期間，我一直非常直言不諱地表達了我們所有人都在 CDC 手中遭受的失望。 CDC 近 18 個月沒有關閉任何其他行業。疾病預防控制中心繼續對我們制定行業中任何地方都看不到的政策，但我們正在與這些政策取得進展。我會告訴你，選擇加入並不是一個容易的決定。

But we think that overall, given where we are now with the prevalence, where we are with the pandemic and the CDC's commitment to continually look at protocol much more online, real-time basis, so to speak, gives us hope that this first step of a volunteer program, where masking is no longer required and a few other guest-facing improvements, that, that will get us to where we need to go.

但我們認為，總體而言，考慮到我們現在的流行程度、大流行的情況以及 CDC 承諾繼續更多地在線、實時地查看協議，可以說，這讓我們希望邁出第一步志願者計劃，不再需要掩蔽和其他一些面向客人的改進，這將使我們到達我們需要去的地方。

And so there's going to be another date in the near future where the CDC will once again evaluate the protocols that we're now volunteering to comply with. But look, at the end of the day, we've always exceeded whatever the CDC's guidelines are. I don't need the CDC to tell me how to operate a safe cruise line. And our protocols have always exceeded theirs and continue to do so. At the end of the day, we need to build consumer confidence, and I think we're doing that.

因此，在不久的將來會有另一個日期，CDC 將再次評估我們現在自願遵守的協議。但是看，歸根結底，我們總是超出 CDC 的指導方針。我不需要 CDC 告訴我如何運營安全的郵輪公司。我們的協議總是超過他們的，並繼續這樣做。歸根結底，我們需要建立消費者信心，我認為我們正在這樣做。

As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the pandemic is waning in several areas, vaccinations are up, the severity of the cases are down. And we as a society are learning to live with this. And I think the CDC is mindful of that and wants to get away from being seen as discriminatory towards the cruise industry and being behind the times. So I think that in the near future, we're going to see a much more friendly environment towards the cruise industry from the CDC.

正如我在準備好的講話中提到的那樣，大流行在幾個地區正在減弱，疫苗接種在增加，病例的嚴重程度在下降。作為一個社會，我們正在學習與之共存。我認為 CDC 注意到了這一點，並希望避免被視為對郵輪行業的歧視和落後於時代。因此，我認為在不久的將來，我們將看到美國疾病控制與預防中心對郵輪行業更加友好的環境。

Our next question is from Stephen Grambling with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Stephen Grambling。

With the new protocols, how should we think about the path to higher occupancy? And as we look out to 2023, will you generally be all the way back to kind of the typical over 100% occupancy? Or could you still see some lingering social distancing or other measures that you would want to kind of continue?

有了新協議，我們應該如何思考提高入住率的途徑？當我們展望 2023 年時，您通常會一直回到典型的超過 100% 的入住率嗎？或者你還能看到一些揮之不去的社交距離或其他你想繼續的措施嗎？

Look, I think that it's too soon to know exactly. I think we're moving in the right direction with COVID overall. We've had to endure two surges, Delta and Omicron, back-to-back. That certainly shook the confidence of society as a whole. If you recall last June, when the vaccines were readily available and the case count was really dropping, business was booming. I remember calling my brand presidents into a meeting and asking them to raise prices, stop marketing, do whatever they've got to do to slow down the sales volume because we were going to end up the year without having an inventory to sell.

看，我認為現在確切知道還為時過早。我認為我們在 COVID 整體上朝著正確的方向前進。我們不得不背靠背忍受兩次激增，Delta 和 Omicron。這無疑動搖了整個社會的信心。如果您還記得去年 6 月，當疫苗很容易獲得併且病例數確實在下降時，業務正在蓬勃發展。我記得我召集我的品牌總裁開會，要求他們提高價格，停止營銷，做任何他們必須做的事情來減緩銷量，因為我們將在年底沒有庫存可售。

And then Delta came along. And just when we were getting out of Delta, Omicron came along. But as we said in our prepared remarks, Steve, the back half of '22, in spite of Delta and Omicron, is in line with the record year of 2019 and 2023 is meaningfully ahead both in price and in load factor. So we believe that -- if you believe that the Omicron is the last major surge that's going to cause upheaval in everyday life, then that healing period that I referred to has begun. And I suspect that unless there is another surge -- and by the way, the experts that we talk to, including Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former FDA commissioner, doesn't believe that there will be another major surge.

然後三角洲出現了。就在我們離開 Delta 的時候，Omicron 出現了。但正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，史蒂夫，22 年的後半部分，儘管有 Delta 和 Omicron，但與 2019 年的創紀錄年份一致，而 2023 年在價格和載客率方面都明顯領先。所以我們相信——如果你相信 Omicron 是最後一個會在日常生活中引起劇變的主要浪潮，那麼我提到的那個癒合期已經開始了。而且我懷疑除非再次出現激增——順便說一句，我們與之交談的專家，包括前 FDA 專員 Scott Gottlieb 博士，不相信會再次出現大幅激增。

There will be variants. There will be mutations. But quite frankly, they will be more endemic than they are pandemic. And so I believe that 2023, based on the numbers that I have in the books right now, both load factor and pricing and further based on the assumption that we will not see another major Delta or Omicron-type surge, 2023 can get the industry and certainly our company back to pre-pandemic levels.

會有變種。會有突變。但坦率地說，它們將比流行病更流行。因此，我相信 2023 年，根據我現在在書中的數字，包括負載率和定價，並進一步基於我們不會看到另一個主要的 Delta 或 Omicron 類型激增的假設，2023 年可以讓行業當然，我們公司又回到了大流行前的水平。

That's helpful. And then you had some helpful details on the change in itineraries by region, I think focusing on more Europe, Alaska. I guess, how will that impact net yields, kind of all else equal, looking at 2022, especially the second half versus 2019? And how are you planning for places like Australia and Asia Pacific, given some more stringent COVID policies?

這很有幫助。然後你有一些關於按地區改變行程的有用細節，我認為重點放在更多的歐洲，阿拉斯加。我想，看看 2022 年，尤其是下半年與 2019 年相比，這將如何影響淨收益率，在其他條件相同的情況下？鑑於一些更嚴格的 COVID 政策，您對澳大利亞和亞太地區等地有何規劃？

Yes. Look, as you've heard me say many, many times, the #1 driver of yield is itineraries. And we strive every day to position our 28 vessels, soon to be 29, in the highest and best use for them. And so constantly, year-after-year, we lead the industry in ticket yields and onboard revenue yields and in total yields. And we think that will continue.

是的。看，正如您多次聽到我所說的那樣，收益的第一大驅動因素是行程。我們每天都在努力將我們的 28 艘船（即將成為 29 艘）定位在最高和最好的用途中。因此，我們年復一年地在機票收益、機上收益收益和總收益方面一直處於行業領先地位。我們認為這將繼續下去。

In the back half of '22 compared to 2019, for example, we will have Encore for the entire year compared to 1 month in 2019. We'll have Regent Splendor for the full year versus 0 months in 2019. And we will have the new Norwegian Prima for about 5 months in 20 -- back half of '22 compared to 0. So those three vessels, all very high-yielding, as Mark mentioned, improvements to margin, will continue to give us the ability to drive higher and higher industry record yields.

例如，與 2019 年相比，在 22 年下半年，與 2019 年的 1 個月相比，我們將擁有全年的 Encore。我們將擁有全年的 Regent Splendor，而 2019 年為 0 個月。我們將擁有新的挪威 Prima 在 20 年約 5 個月 - 與 0 相比 22 年的後半部分。因此，正如馬克所說，這三艘船都非常高收益，提高利潤率，將繼續讓我們有能力推動更高和更高的行業創紀錄的收益率。

And in terms of Australia and in Asia, in general, as you know, those are the last geographic areas to come online after the pandemic. We believe that they will be online. Certainly, I believe Australia and New Zealand will be, I'm not sure about China. China, quite frankly, is an insignificant area for us. But we are hopeful that the likes of Thailand and Singapore and Vietnam do reopen in time for the winter '22/'23 season. So we still have 9, 10 months to go before that season begins. Hopefully, as the pandemic winds down and finds its way through that Asian geographic area, that those countries and those ports will reopen to us.

如您所知，就澳大利亞和亞洲而言，總體而言，這些是大流行後最後上線的地理區域。我們相信他們會上線。當然，我相信澳大利亞和新西蘭會，我不確定中國。坦率地說，中國對我們來說是一個微不足道的領域。但我們希望泰國、新加坡和越南等國家能夠在 22/23 年冬季及時重新開放。所以在那個賽季開始之前，我們還有 9 到 10 個月的時間。希望隨著大流行病逐漸平息並在亞洲地理區域蔓延，這些國家和港口將重新向我們開放。

Steve, this is Mark. As we look to 2023, it's also important to remember that we're set up extremely well. As Frank said, we have essentially almost 5 additional vessels that will be operating the full year or roughly 20% more capacity than 2019. And if we look at those vessels and the economics of those vessels, we know they're a big driver to bottom line profitability and margin accretion. So again, assuming a normal year, we are set up extremely well in terms of our profile.

史蒂夫，這是馬克。當我們展望 2023 年時，同樣重要的是要記住我們的設置非常好。正如弗蘭克所說，我們基本上還有近 5 艘船舶將全年運營，或比 2019 年增加約 20% 的運力。如果我們看看這些船舶和這些船舶的經濟性，我們知道它們是推動底線盈利能力和利潤增長。再一次，假設一個正常的年份，就我們的個人資料而言，我們的設置非常好。

Our next question comes from James Hardiman with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 James Hardiman。

This is Sean Wagner on for James. I guess, on the topic of how should we think of the per berth net cruise costs, excluding fuel, as we ramp the fleet over the course of the year? And is there an opportunity to match or improve on those numbers as we look to 2023? Or I guess, is there any way to think about kind of margin potential at similar yields or similar revenue levels?

這是詹姆斯的肖恩瓦格納。我想，當我們在一年中增加船隊時，我們應該如何考慮每個泊位的淨巡航成本（不包括燃料）？展望 2023 年，是否有機會匹配或改進這些數字？或者我想，有沒有辦法考慮類似收益率或類似收入水平的利潤率潛力？

Sure. This is Mark. So look, we're thinking about that every day, like any business, and as I said in my prepared remarks, we, too, have pressures like the rest of the world. That also comes along -- comes together with stronger top line. But this is a relatively fixed cost business. So we're lucky that we're afforded some protection on that front.

當然。這是馬克。所以看，我們每天都在考慮這個問題，就像任何企業一樣，正如我在準備好的講話中所說，我們也像世界其他地方一樣面臨壓力。這也隨之而來——伴隨著更強勁的收入。但這是一項成本相對固定的業務。所以我們很幸運，我們在這方面得到了一些保護。

That said, as we look as a comparable base back to 2019 and you think about it on a per unit cost basis, we do have more efficient capacity coming on. We do have more growth. So that's going to give us some opportunity there. To the extent some of that is offset by continued inflationary pressures, that remains to be seen. We have started -- we were -- prior to today or yesterday, we were starting to see some settling on the cost side. So we'll have to see how this recent geopolitical event impacts that. But all else equal, we should be gaining efficiencies.

也就是說，由於我們將其視為 2019 年的可比基礎，並且您以單位成本為基礎考慮，我們確實擁有更高效的產能。我們確實有更多的增長。所以這會給我們一些機會。持續的通脹壓力是否抵消了其中的一部分，這還有待觀察。我們已經開始 - 我們曾經 - 在今天或昨天之前，我們開始看到一些在成本方面的解決方案。所以我們必須看看最近的地緣政治事件如何影響它。但在其他條件相同的情況下，我們應該提高效率。

That said, keep in mind, we have not gotten rid of any of our older vessels during the pandemic. We have a relatively young fleet. And at this time, we have no plans to shed any of that capacity. So we won't have that optical benefit, so to speak, versus some of our competitors. And I highlight the word optical on that front, so -- but again, we've always run a lean company. We will get scale as we continue to bring -- to grow and bring on efficient capacity. And it's in our DNA to look at every cost, every line item and drive efficiencies where we can.

也就是說，請記住，在大流行期間，我們沒有擺脫任何舊船。我們有一支相對年輕的艦隊。目前，我們沒有計劃放棄任何這種能力。因此，可以說，與我們的一些競爭對手相比，我們不會有這種光學優勢。我在這方面強調了光學這個詞，所以 - 但同樣，我們一直在經營一家精益公司。隨著我們繼續帶來規模，我們將獲得規模——增長並帶來高效的產能。我們的 DNA 就是關注每一項成本、每一個項目並儘可能提高效率。

That's very helpful. And I guess, on the yield end of it or the per diem specifically, how much of that premium that you're seeing, and I guess, the industry as a whole is seeing, is due to not having to kind of fill up ships to capacity? And kind of how much of that -- what do you think about your ability to maintain that strength as you do get closer to kind of historical levels of occupancy?

這很有幫助。而且我猜，在收益端或特別是每日津貼方面，你看到的溢價有多少，我猜，整個行業正在看到，是由於不必填滿船隻容量？以及其中有多少——當你接近歷史入住率水平時，你如何看待你保持這種實力的能力？

Well, as I mentioned earlier, the phenomena that you mentioned is not new in Q4. It's something that we've been able to achieve year after year after year. We lead the industry in yields, ticket yield, onboard revenue yield and we continue to do so, primarily because of our go-to-market strategy, where we believe in marketing to stimulate demand.

好吧，正如我之前提到的，您提到的現像在第四季度並不新鮮。這是我們年復一年能夠實現的目標。我們在收益、機票收益、機上收益收益方面處於行業領先地位，並且我們將繼續這樣做，這主要是因為我們的市場推廣戰略，我們相信營銷可以刺激需求。

We believe in the product, you pay for what you get for. And we have three industry-leading brands, the highest luxury brand in Regent, the highest-yielding premium brand in Oceania and what we believe to be the highest contemporary yielding brand in Norwegian. So we're just going to continue doing what we always do because it's a winning strategy.

我們相信產品，您為所得到的付出。我們擁有三個行業領先的品牌，攝政最高的奢侈品牌，大洋洲最高收益的高端品牌，以及我們認為是挪威當代最高收益的品牌。因此，我們將繼續做我們一直做的事情，因為這是一個制勝策略。

And Sean, I think it's a bit of a fallacy to think that we're just getting these premium per diems as a result of lower capacity. Yes, there's some of that mix that impacts onboard revenue. Yes, we've said that in the past. But core, fundamental, solid ticket revenue, pricing is strong. We've maintained pricing. That's our strategy, market to fill. We're going to continue to do that. So it's not by accident that we're getting those premiums as a result of our self-imposed capacity limits.

肖恩，我認為認為我們只是因為產能下降而獲得這些每日津貼，這有點謬誤。是的，其中一些因素會影響船上收入。是的，我們過去說過。但核心、基本、穩固的門票收入，定價強勁。我們維持定價。這就是我們的戰略，要填補市場。我們將繼續這樣做。因此，由於我們自我施加的容量限制，我們獲得這些溢價並非偶然。

Our next question is from Fred Wightman with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Fred Wightman。

There was a comment that some vessels could potentially be impacted just from geopolitics starting in late May. I'm wondering if you could maybe frame the potential impact either on a capacity basis, if that's easiest.

有評論稱，從 5 月下旬開始，一些船隻可能會受到地緣政治的影響。我想知道您是否可以在容量基礎上確定潛在影響，如果這最簡單的話。

Sure, Fred. So when we look at -- obviously, we're talking about the Baltic region, more specifically, St. Petersburg. As we look, we have roughly about 5% of our total capacity that calls on St. Petersburg over this course of the summer season. And that's heavily weighted more towards our Norwegian brand than Oceania or Regent. But it's -- all in all, it's about 50 sailings. And we are looking at alternative ports as we speak. I mean, this is something we've been thinking about.

當然，弗雷德。所以當我們看——顯然，我們談論的是波羅的海地區，更具體地說，是聖彼得堡。正如我們所看到的，在整個夏季期間，我們大約有 5% 的總運力需要停靠聖彼得堡。與大洋洲或攝政王相比，這更偏重於我們的挪威品牌。但它 - 總而言之，大約有 50 次航行。我們正在尋找替代端口。我的意思是，這是我們一直在考慮的事情。

And worst-case scenario, if we're not able to call on St. Petersburg or the surrounding areas, there's plenty of other ports in the -- in that Scandinavian region that we have the ability to call on. So not a huge impact, obviously a bit disappointing because that is a premier port, but there's other viable, very attractive ports that are available.

最壞的情況是，如果我們無法停靠聖彼得堡或周邊地區，那麼我們有能力停靠的斯堪的納維亞地區還有很多其他港口。所以影響不大，顯然有點令人失望，因為那是一個主要港口，但還有其他可行的、非常有吸引力的港口可供使用。

Great. And then I guess, just conceptually, is this current situation something that you've seen actually reflected in booking trends over the past few days? Or is it still just sort of up and to the right post Omicron?

偉大的。然後我想，從概念上講，你所看到的這種現狀是否真的反映在過去幾天的預訂趨勢中？或者它仍然只是在 Omicron 之後有點上升和正確嗎？

Yes. Look, I think it's way too early. I mean, we definitely did not see anything as of close of business yesterday. And this morning, I haven't received -- we haven't received any red flags. But like anything, you'll probably see a little bit of slowdown here and there around margin. That's normal. But it's definitely too early to indicate if there's going to be any longer-term effects. Europe is a big continent, too. So this is affecting a very small portion of Europe. And there's a lot of other areas that we can operate in, especially the Med, where we have a significant capacity as well.

是的。看，我覺得太早了。我的意思是，截至昨天收盤時，我們絕對沒有看到任何東西。今天早上，我沒有收到——我們沒有收到任何危險信號。但就像任何事情一樣，你可能會在邊際周圍看到一點點放緩。這很正常。但現在說是否會產生任何長期影響肯定還為時過早。歐洲也是一個大洲。所以這影響了歐洲的一小部分。我們還可以在許多其他領域開展業務，尤其是在地中海，我們在這些領域也有很大的能力。

Our next question is from Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Vince Ciepiel。

Could you talk a little bit more about brand performance, maybe what you're seeing luxury high-end versus contemporary, anything, differences in booking patterns? And then your recent change that, I think, goes in effect March 1 regarding age under 12 allowed to be unvaccinated, I think that's a change from previously being 100% vaccinated. And on the contemporary brand, curious how that change is being received, if that's generating any new interest. Any thoughts there?

您能否多談談品牌表現，也許您所看到的奢侈品高端與現代，什麼，預訂模式的差異？然後你最近的變化，我認為，在 3 月 1 日生效，關於 12 歲以下的年齡允許不接種疫苗，我認為這是與之前 100% 接種疫苗的變化。對於當代品牌，好奇這種變化是如何被接受的，如果這會產生任何新的興趣。有什麼想法嗎？

Vince, it's Frank. Look, the -- all three brands are performing very, very well. As you know from normal times, if you've been following this industry for a while, the upscale brands, Oceania and Regent, by the nature of their itineraries, their psychographic demographics, the customer base, those itineraries tend to book earlier than the more contemporary Norwegian brands.

文斯，是弗蘭克。看，這三個品牌的表現都非常非常好。正如您從平時所知道的那樣，如果您已經關注這個行業一段時間，高檔品牌 Oceania 和 Regent，由於其行程的性質、他們的心理人口統計數據、客戶群，這些行程往往比更多當代挪威品牌。

In this business, everything else being equal, the longer the itinerary is, the more exotic the itinerary is, the further out people book. And we're certainly seeing that. And so we have great visibility into the second half of '22 and into '23 from -- especially from those two brands. And the news is just fantastic. As I said, we are in line with 2019, and 2019 was a heck of a year, and significantly ahead of -- for 2023 and at higher pricing. So I will tell you that the upscale market is very much alive and well as is Norwegian.

在這個行業，在其他條件相同的情況下，行程越長，行程越奇特，人們預定的越遠。我們當然看到了這一點。因此，我們對 22 年下半年和 23 年有很大的了解——尤其是這兩個品牌。這個消息真是太棒了。正如我所說，我們與 2019 年保持一致，而 2019 年是一年的時間，並且明顯領先於 2023 年，而且價格更高。所以我會告訴你，高檔市場和挪威人一樣非常活躍。

Now as far as Norwegian goes, we believe that the combination of allowing children under the age of 12 and no longer having to wear masks is a big boost to demand. We just announced it in the last couple of days. As I said earlier, business has been trending upward sequentially now for about 4 weeks. And we believe that this announcement will add fuel to that sequential improvement week-over-week in terms of net bookings.

現在就挪威人而言，我們認為，允許 12 歲以下的兒童和不再需要戴口罩的結合是對需求的巨大推動。我們剛剛在過去幾天宣布了它。正如我之前所說，業務已經連續大約 4 週呈上升趨勢。我們相信，這一公告將推動淨預訂量每週的連續改善。

Great. And then I had a follow-up question on costs, specifically fuel. You talked earlier about installing more scrubbers. And I'm thinking back to pre-COVID times and with IMO 2020, the thought that the percentage of fuel that was MGO that you burn would have to step up, I think, it was to like 60% or something like that, which was pretty high. Now that you've kind of digested some of these changes, installed more scrubbers, what percent of fuel in 2022 do you think will be MGO?

偉大的。然後我有一個關於成本的後續問題，特別是燃料。您之前談到安裝更多洗滌器。我正在回想 COVID 之前的時代和 IMO 2020，我認為你燃燒的 MGO 燃料的百分比必須提高，我認為應該是 60% 或類似的東西，這相當高。既然您已經消化了其中的一些變化，安裝了更多的洗滌器，那麼您認為 2022 年燃料的百分比將是 MGO？

Yes. Roughly, we've now completed our exhaust gas scrubber installation recently. And when we look at our mix, we're settling out at about 50% HFO versus MGO, so right down the middle of the path, slightly better than what we were anticipating, which is good news.

是的。大致上，我們最近已經完成了廢氣洗滌器的安裝。當我們查看我們的組合時，我們的 HFO 與 MGO 相比穩定在 50% 左右，所以就在路徑的中間，略好於我們的預期，這是個好消息。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Robin Farley with UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

Great. I wanted to ask about pricing. You showed your itinerary mix, which would be driving price increases with the higher mix in Alaska and Europe. Can you help us sort of think about the same-store increases in the Caribbean, just given the resort hotel rates on land, the types of increases we're seeing and how that may be looking for your kind of same-store Caribbean?

偉大的。我想問一下定價。你展示了你的行程組合，這將推動價格上漲，因為阿拉斯加和歐洲的組合更高。你能幫我們想想加勒比地區的同店增長嗎，只是考慮到陸地上的度假村酒店價格，我們看到的增長類型，以及這可能會如何尋找你那種加勒比地區的同店？

And then just a follow-up, too, on the potential changes with Baltic ships. So just to clarify, are you saying that Baltic ships would not be moved to the Med, just thinking about potential impact, if there was that kind of change in the Med closer in? So you're saying that's not where Baltic ships would go? So I just want to clarify that, too.

然後只是跟進波羅的海船隻的潛在變化。所以只是澄清一下，你是說波羅的海的船隻不會被轉移到地中海，只是考慮潛在的影響，如果靠近地中海的地方發生這種變化？所以你是說那不是波羅的海船隻會去的地方？所以我也想澄清一下。

Robin, it's Frank. No, the Baltic ships will stay in the Baltic. The Med ships will stay in the Med. What we said was if we cannot go to St. Petersburg, there are many alternative ports to visit in the surrounding countries. We also have the opportunity to overnight in another port so that we don't have to affect the length of the itinerary nor the embark or disembark. It is disappointing because St. Petersburg is one of the crown jewels of the Scandinavian itineraries. But certainly, there are alternatives.

羅賓，是弗蘭克。不，波羅的海的船隻將留在波羅的海。地中海船將留在地中海。我們說的是，如果我們不能去聖彼得堡，周邊國家有很多可供選擇的港口。我們也有機會在另一個港口過夜，這樣我們就不必影響行程的長度，也不會影響登船或下船。這是令人失望的，因為聖彼得堡是斯堪的納維亞行程的皇冠上的明珠之一。但可以肯定的是，還有其他選擇。

In terms of the Caribbean, look, we've seen strong pricing in the Caribbean. We -- as we move certain capacity out of the Caribbean and into higher-yielding itineraries, whatever is left for us, by definition, provides a lift to yield because we have less competition among ourselves. We also are seeing that with cost pressures affecting all businesses, it's also affecting the land resorts. They're having to charge more. And so our cruise, as the industry's presence in the Caribbean theater, we believe we're more competitive than ever. And it's allowing us at least to raise prices in the Caribbean.

在加勒比地區，看，我們在加勒比地區看到了強勁的定價。我們——當我們將某些運力從加勒比地區轉移到收益更高的路線上時，根據定義，剩下的任何東西都會提高收益，因為我們之間的競爭較少。我們還看到，成本壓力影響著所有企業，它也影響著土地度假村。他們不得不收取更多費用。因此，我們的遊輪，作為該行業在加勒比地區的存在，我們相信我們比以往任何時候都更具競爭力。它至少使我們能夠提高加勒比地區的價格。

So we like the Caribbean, especially in the winter. But we're always tweaking our deployment such that we can move our vessels to what we believe are higher and higher yields, not just ticket yields but also onboard revenue yield. So for example, a vessel that might generate the same ticket yield in the same month in the Caribbean versus Alaska, you would probably want to move that ship to Alaska because we know historically, Alaska generates more onboard revenue.

所以我們喜歡加勒比海，尤其是在冬天。但我們一直在調整我們的部署，以便我們可以將我們的船隻移動到我們認為越來越高的收益，不僅是機票收益，還有船上收入收益。因此，例如，一艘在加勒比海與阿拉斯加在同一個月內可能產生相同票價的船隻，您可能希望將這艘船移至阿拉斯加，因為我們知道歷史上，阿拉斯加產生更多的船上收入。

So you've got to look at the total -- and I know that analysts and investors don't have the same visibility on onboard revenue yields as you do on ticket yields. But I've got to tell you, onboard revenue yield continues to grow, becoming more and more important as a part of the overall yield. And so we don't look at just ticket yields, which is itinerary-driven, but we also look at onboard revenue yield. And if you see it from our lens, you'll see why we are constantly tweaking our overall deployment and, on a net-net basis, are moving ships out of the Caribbean into places like Alaska and in Europe.

因此，您必須查看總數-我知道分析師和投資者對船上收入收益率的了解程度與您對機票收益率的了解程度不同。但我必須告訴你，船上收入收益率繼續增長，作為整體收益率的一部分變得越來越重要。因此，我們不僅僅關注由行程驅動的機票收益，還關注機上收入收益。如果你從我們的角度來看，你就會明白為什麼我們不斷地調整我們的整體部署，並在網絡的基礎上，將船隻從加勒比海轉移到阿拉斯加和歐洲等地。

Our next question is from Andrew Didora with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrew Didora。

Frank, can you maybe help us understand the booking curve a little bit more? When you say back half of '22 and 2023 bookings are ahead of 2019, I guess, how much of your budgeted kind of back half of the year and forward year is typically filled right now? Just trying to get a sense of how much there is left to fill between now and the sell date. What -- how has that looked historically?

弗蘭克，你能幫我們多了解一下預訂曲線嗎？當您說 22 年和 2023 年的後半部分預訂提前於 2019 年時，我猜，您預算的後半年和前年通常現在有多少已被填滿？只是想了解從現在到銷售日期之間還有多少要填補。什麼——從歷史上看是怎樣的？

Well, there's still a lot to sell. As you know, we always say that we'd like to turn the year somewhere between 60% to 65%. Certainly, we didn't turn 2021 into '22 at that level because of Omicron and Delta for the full year. But it's like I said, in line for the back half. And certainly, today, based on what the booked position is for '23, reaching that 60%, even 65% for 2023 at year-end '22 looks very, very doable and at higher prices.

好吧，還有很多東西要賣。如您所知，我們總是說我們希望將這一年轉變為 60% 到 65% 之間。當然，由於全年都有 Omicron 和 Delta，我們並沒有將 2021 年變成 22 年。但就像我說的，在後半場排隊。當然，今天，根據 23 年的預訂位置，在 22 年年底達到 2023 年的 60% 甚至 65% 看起來非常非常可行，而且價格更高。

Again, it all boils down to is if you believe, as we do, that the pandemic is receding, that the healing process has begun and that momentum is picking up. We've now -- we saw momentum pick up last -- late last spring, when the original, I guess, it was called Alpha variant, was beginning to die down, only to be thwarted by the arrival of Delta in early July. And then just when we thought Delta was over in the October, November, we were cranking again. Then Omicron came. If you believe it's over, then we're at the cusp of that momentum, a hockey stick type of growth in net bookings arriving on the scene. And that's what we believe.

再次，歸結為，如果您像我們一樣相信大流行正在消退，治愈過程已經開始並且勢頭正在回升。我們現在 - 我們看到勢頭在去年春末回升，我猜，當最初的，我猜，它被稱為 Alpha 變體，開始消亡，只是被 Delta 在 7 月初的到來所挫敗。然後就在我們認為 Delta 在 10 月、11 月結束時，我們又開始了。然後Omicron來了。如果您認為它已經結束，那麼我們正處於這種勢頭的風口浪尖，這是一種曲棍球棒類型的淨預訂量增長。這就是我們所相信的。

And it's not because I believe it, but those who know better, our SailSAFE panel, the experts around the country, believe that the combination of Omicron receding, more and more people being vaccinated, more and more immunity in the -- in society, both in the U.S. and worldwide, the new therapeutics coming online, that the pandemic will soon turn into an endemic. In fact, there are countries now, Iceland, Denmark, who declared the end of the pandemic and an endemic arrival. So at this stage -- and again, not because I think, I'm giving you what the numbers are showing, 2023 could be -- assuming that no other major variants arise in the scene, could be a fabulous year, to be a record year.

這不是因為我相信，而是那些更了解的人，我們的 SailSAFE 小組，全國各地的專家，相信 Omicron 的衰退，越來越多的人接種疫苗，社會中越來越多的免疫力，無論是在美國還是在世界範圍內，新療法上線後，這種流行病很快就會變成地方病。事實上，現在已經有一些國家，冰島、丹麥，宣布了大流行的結束和地方病的到來。所以在這個階段——再說一次，不是因為我認為，我給你的數字是什麼，2023 年可能是——假設場景中沒有出現其他主要變體，這可能是一個神話般的一年，成為創紀錄的年份。

Got it. Mark, just a clarification on the operating cash flow guidance, when you say cash from operations will inflect positively in the second quarter, does that include your estimate for cash in from customer deposits? And then -- because I think does that differ from your cash burn definition in terms of excluding any deposits? Am I thinking about that right?

知道了。馬克，只是對運營現金流指導的澄清，當你說來自運營的現金將在第二季度產生積極影響時，這是否包括你對來自客戶存款的現金的估計？然後 - 因為我認為這與您在排除任何存款方面的現金消耗定義不同嗎？我想對了嗎？

Yes. Cash burn, we give the cash burn guidance to help you guys model. But cash flow from operations takes all that into account, all of your working capital changes, essentially write off your cash flow statement, cash flow from operations. So that's what we're referring to. There is no other definition of it, just a straight GAAP interpretation.

是的。燒錢，我們提供燒錢指導來幫助你們建模。但是來自運營的現金流量考慮了所有這些，你所有的營運資金變化，基本上註銷你的現金流量表，來自運營的現金流量。這就是我們所指的。沒有其他定義，只是直接的 GAAP 解釋。

Our next question is from Jaime Katz with Morningstar.

我們的下一個問題來自晨星的 Jaime Katz。

My first question is on marketing ROI and how you guys are planning on your marketing spend over 2022, given the lift obviously that you have seen in spend so far. And then just a clarification, I think in your prepared remarks, you had articulated that some of the refinancing had maybe given you availability to tap into the secured debt markets again if you chose to do so. I just wanted to make sure I heard that correct.

我的第一個問題是關於營銷投資回報率以及你們如何計劃 2022 年的營銷支出，因為到目前為止你們已經看到支出明顯增加。然後只是澄清一下，我認為在你準備好的發言中，你已經明確表示，如果你選擇這樣做，一些再融資可能讓你有機會再次進入有擔保的債務市場。我只是想確保我聽到的是正確的。

Jaime, yes, you are correct. So with completion of our recent transaction, the series of debt transactions that -- where we raised $2.1 billion, we did free up collateral on two of our vessels as well, as I said, all of our islands and, of course, the all-sacred intellectual property. So going forward, we do have secured capacity in addition to what we just issued in the course of the last 2 to 3 weeks.

詹姆，是的，你是對的。因此，隨著我們最近的交易完成，一系列債務交易——我們籌集了 21 億美元，我們確實釋放了我們兩艘船的抵押品，正如我所說，我們所有的島嶼，當然還有所有-神聖的知識產權。因此，展望未來，除了我們在過去 2 到 3 週內剛剛發布的內容外，我們確實已經確保了容量。

And I think your first part of the question was on marketing spend. Look, we -- as we've always said, we market to fill. And that's demonstrated in our pricing. We demonstrated it in Q4. We will market where needed. We're always looking for an ROI on our marketing, of course. There's a portion of marketing that is agnostic, where you just have to spend, where you can't necessarily pinpoint an ROI, right? You have to get a certain amount of load on the ships.

我認為你的第一部分問題是關於營銷支出。看，我們 - 正如我們一直說的那樣，我們進行市場填充。這在我們的定價中得到了證明。我們在第四季度展示了它。我們將在需要的地方進行營銷。當然，我們一直在尋找營銷的投資回報率。有一部分營銷是不可知的，你只需要在哪里花錢，你不一定能確定投資回報率，對吧？你必須在船上獲得一定的負載。

But beyond that, it's very pointed. Our marketing groups are very sophisticated in that aspect. And if we can spend $1 of marketing and get a 5 to 10x return, we'll do that all day long. And we watch that. We look at that. Our brand presidents from each area of each brand do that day in, day out. So again, we will market to fill. And that's the important strategy.

但除此之外，它非常尖銳。我們的營銷團隊在這方面非常成熟。如果我們可以花費 1 美元的營銷費用並獲得 5 到 10 倍的回報，我們將整天這樣做。我們注意這一點。我們看那個。我們來自每個品牌各個領域的品牌總裁日復一日地工作。所以再一次，我們將填補市場。這就是重要的戰略。

One thing I'll add to what Mark just said, Jaime, is that we recognized very early in the Omicron wave that consumers were not -- cruising was not top of mind in consumers' mind in December and January. So we pulled back our marketing spend considerably at the end of '21 and early '22, believing that it would not have been as effective as it would in other times. So we've got plenty of dry powder that we're going to be deploying over the next few weeks and months ahead as we rev up the marketing machine to get to the booking levels we need to generate the booked position we want.

我要補充一下馬克剛才所說的一件事，Jaime，我們在 Omicron 浪潮中很早就認識到消費者不是——在 12 月和 1 月，巡航並不是消費者心目中的頭等大事。因此，我們在 21 年底和 22 年初大幅縮減了營銷支出，認為它不會像其他時候那樣有效。所以我們有大量的干粉，我們將在接下來的幾周和幾個月內部署這些乾粉，因為我們會加速營銷機器以達到我們需要的預訂水平來生成我們想要的預訂位置。

So we did two very smart things. Maybe we were a lot more lucky than smart, but we didn't drop prices. And that's by design because that's just not what we do. And number two, we were able to recognize that Omicron was going to have an impact on consumer behavior. And we reduced our marketing spend during that 8-week period or so. And so we come out of it with plenty of dry powder to deploy now in a more favorable environment.

所以我們做了兩件非常聰明的事情。也許我們比聰明人幸運得多，但我們沒有降價。這是設計使然，因為這不是我們所做的。第二，我們能夠認識到 Omicron 將對消費者行為產生影響。在這 8 週左右的時間裡，我們減少了營銷支出。因此，我們現在可以在更有利的環境中部署大量乾粉。

Well, thank you, everyone, as always, for your time and for your support. We will be available to answer any questions you might have throughout the day. And I wish you a good day, and a healthy and safety stay. Thank you so much.

好吧，謝謝大家，一如既往，感謝您的時間和支持。我們將全天回答您可能遇到的任何問題。祝您有美好的一天，健康安全的住宿。非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。