挪威郵輪 (NCLH) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Business Update and Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Maria, and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎來到挪威郵輪控股公司業務更新和 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。我叫瑪麗亞，今天我就是你的接線員。 （操作員說明）

As a reminder to all participants, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Jessica John, Vice President Investor Relations of ESG and Corporate Communications. Ms. John, please proceed.

作為對所有參與者的提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音中。我現在想將會議轉交給您的主持人，即 ESG 和企業傳播部投資者關係副總裁 Jessica John。約翰女士，請繼續。

Thank you, Maria, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2022 earnings and business update call. I'm joined today by Frank Del Rio, President and Chief Executive Officer of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings; and Mark Kempa, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Frank will begin the call with opening commentary, after which Mark will follow to discuss our financials before handing the call back to Frank for closing remarks. We will then open the call for your questions.

謝謝你，瑪麗亞，大家早上好。感謝您加入我們的 2022 年第三季度收益和業務更新電話會議。挪威郵輪控股公司總裁兼首席執行官弗蘭克德爾里奧今天加入了我的行列；和執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Mark Kempa。弗蘭克將以開場評論開始電話會議，之後馬克將隨後討論我們的財務狀況，然後將電話交回弗蘭克以進行結束髮言。然後，我們將打開電話詢問您的問題。

As a reminder, this conference call is being simultaneously webcast on the company's Investor Relations website at www.nclhltd.com/investors. We will also make reference to a slide presentation during this call, which may be found on our Investor Relations website. Both the conference call and presentation will be available for replay for 30 days following today's call.

提醒一下，本次電話會議同時在公司的投資者關係網站 www.nclhltd.com/investors 上進行網絡直播。我們還將在本次電話會議期間參考幻燈片演示，該幻燈片可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。電話會議和演示文稿都將在今天電話會議後的 30 天內進行重播。

Before we begin, I would like to cover a few items. Our press release, the third quarter 2022 results was issued this morning and is available on our IR website. This call includes forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from such statements. These statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statement contained in our earnings release. Our comments may also reference non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in our earnings release and presentation.

在開始之前，我想介紹一些項目。我們的新聞稿，即 2022 年第三季度業績於今天上午發布，可在我們的 IR 網站上查閱。本次電話會議包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致我們的實際結果與此類陳述存在重大差異。這些聲明應與我們收益發布中包含的警示聲明一起考慮。我們的評論也可能參考非公認會計準則財務指標。與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標和其他相關披露的對賬包含在我們的收益發布和演示文稿中。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Frank Del Rio. Frank?

有了這個，我想把電話轉給弗蘭克德爾里奧。坦率？

Thank you, Jessica, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I am pleased to report that we reached another significant achievement on our road to recovery this quarter, with a generation of positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time since the pandemic began. We have been clear about our intentional and methodical return to service strategy, consistently meeting or even exceeding the operational and financial milestones we have guided to.

謝謝你，傑西卡，大家早上好，謝謝你今天加入我們。我很高興地報告，本季度我們在復甦之路上取得了另一項重大成就，自大流行開始以來首次出現一代正調整 EBITDA。我們已經明確了我們有意和有條不紊地恢復服務戰略，始終如一地達到甚至超過我們指導的運營和財務里程碑。

I am encouraged by our progress as each quarter has seen substantial sequential improvement in load factor with the shortfall gap continuing to narrow versus pre-pandemic levels, while our industry-leading pricing continues to hold strong. And while we are always looking for ways to capitalize on opportunities to accelerate our recovery, I want to reiterate that our primary focus continues to be maximizing profitability for 2023 and beyond in a sustainable banner by prioritizing our long-term brand equity and protecting our industry-leading pricing.

我對我們的進步感到鼓舞，因為每個季度的載客率都出現了顯著的連續改善，與大流行前的水平相比，缺口差距繼續縮小，而我們行業領先的定價繼續保持強勁。雖然我們一直在尋找利用機會加速復甦的方法，但我想重申，我們的主要重點仍然是通過優先考慮我們的長期品牌資產和保護我們的行業，以可持續的旗幟在 2023 年及以後最大限度地提高盈利能力- 領先的定價。

While the macroeconomic environment heading into 2023 remains more uncertain than usual, we see several tailwinds and catalysts to sustain our current positive trajectory as outlined on Slide 5.

儘管進入 2023 年的宏觀經濟環境仍然比往常更加不確定，但我們看到了一些順風和催化劑來維持我們當前的積極軌跡，如幻燈片 5 所述。

First, the public health regulatory COVID-related protocols continue to improve. In the past 30 to 45 days alone, key countries like Canada, Bermuda, Greece and all of South America have removed COVID testing requirements for entry and many countries in Asia have begun reopening the cruise. These developments have paved the way for us to relax our own COVID-19 protocols, allowing us to reach a wider cruising population as well as adding greater variety to high-yielding itineraries as more ports around the world become accessible to cruising.

首先，公共衛生監管與 COVID 相關的協議不斷改進。僅在過去 30 到 45 天，加拿大、百慕大、希臘和整個南美洲等主要國家已經取消了入境的 COVID 檢測要求，亞洲許多國家也開始重新開放遊輪。這些發展為我們放寬我們自己的 COVID-19 協議鋪平了道路，使我們能夠接觸到更廣泛的巡航人口，並隨著世界各地更多的港口可供巡航，為高收益的行程增加更多種類。

With the public health environment improving, in September, our 3 brands removed mandatory vaccination requirements. And just last month, Norwegian Cruise Line took another significant step forward with the elimination of all COVID-19-related guest protocols. That means no more vaccination, testing or masking requirements on any of the Line's 18 ships, except in the very few areas around the world would still have specific COVID rules. This is a long-awaited alignment of protocols to the rest of the travel lesion hospitality industries, which reduces friction, eliminates the #1 reason for not booking a cruise and meaningfully enhances the cruise experience for our guests. Our [sales safe] program was always designed to evolve and the improvement in the public health environment along with the near elimination of intrusive protocols to remain in place allow us to uphold our #1 priority of protecting the health, safety and well-being of our guests, crew and the communities we visit.

隨著公共衛生環境的改善，9月，我們的3個品牌取消了強制性疫苗接種要求。就在上個月，挪威郵輪公司又向前邁出了重要一步，取消了所有與 COVID-19 相關的賓客協議。這意味著對 Line 的 18 艘船舶中的任何一艘都不再有疫苗接種、測試或戴口罩的要求，除非在世界上極少數地區仍有特定的 COVID 規則。這是一個期待已久的協議與其他旅行損傷酒店行業的一致性，它減少了摩擦，消除了不預訂遊輪的第一大原因，並有意義地增強了我們客人的遊輪體驗。我們的 [銷售安全] 計劃始終旨在不斷發展，公共衛生環境的改善以及幾乎消除侵入性協議以保持原樣，使我們能夠堅持我們的第一要務，即保護消費者的健康、安全和福祉我們的客人、船員和我們訪問的社區。

Second, while there are heightened concerns surrounding an economic slowdown in the broader marketplace, the primary target cohort of our 3 brands, which is more upmarket and affluent than that of the cruise industry as a whole continues to demonstrate its willingness to spend on travel and experiences. In fact, you may have heard commentary from credit card issuers this earnings season about continued strong spend on travel and experiences, especially by those in higher-income categories, reinforcing the continued strength and resilience of demand for cruising, particularly among Americans. Within the cruise industry, we believe our company is well positioned to outperform if indeed the macroeconomic environment weakens. First, and as Slide 6 illustrates our dominance in the upscale space, which we participate in and not only through our Oceania and Regent brands, but also with our exclusive high-end ship within a ship concept on Norwegian with The Haven is significant. And while this cohort is not totally immune to economic downturns, it has been very resilient historically.

其次，雖然圍繞更廣泛市場的經濟放緩的擔憂加劇，但我們三個品牌的主要目標群體，比整個郵輪行業更高檔和富裕，繼續表現出其在旅遊和消費上的意願。經驗。事實上，您可能已經在本財報季聽到信用卡發卡機構關於旅行和體驗支出持續強勁的評論，尤其是高收入類別的人，這增強了遊輪需求的持續強勁和彈性，尤其是在美國人中。在郵輪行業，如果宏觀經濟環境確實減弱，我們認為我們公司有能力跑贏大盤。首先，幻燈片 6 展示了我們在高端領域的主導地位，我們不僅通過大洋洲和麗晶品牌參與其中，而且還通過我們在挪威與避風港的船舶概念中的獨家高端船舶參與其中，這一點意義重大。雖然這群人並非完全不受經濟衰退的影響，但它在歷史上一直非常有彈性。

In addition, Slide 6 also demonstrates our favorable guest demographic mix which skews towards the higher end of the income spectrum as each of our brands operate at the top of their respective industry categories. The vast majority of our guests have a net worth of 250,000 plus. Again, a more resilient cohort in the event of an economic downturn particularly if the job market remains strong and the equity markets stabilize. With over 85% of our guest sourcing coming from North America, we will also benefit in the near term given our relatively low exposure to European sourcing, where the economic environment is already challenged. Long term, this bodes well for our business as North Americans have historically been the guests who booked the earliest, garnered the highest ticket price and spend the most on board. Taken together, these factors contribute to our strong book position despite current microeconomic worries and a turbulent geopolitical environment.

此外，幻燈片 6 還展示了我們有利的賓客人口結構組合，由於我們的每個品牌都在各自行業類別的頂端運營，因此該組合傾向於收入範圍的高端。我們絕大多數客人的淨資產超過25萬。同樣，在經濟低迷的情況下，尤其是在就業市場保持強勁且股市穩定的情況下，這將是一個更具彈性的群體。由於我們 85% 以上的客戶採購來自北美，鑑於我們對歐洲採購的敞口相對較低，我們也將在短期內受益，因為歐洲採購的經濟環境已經受到挑戰。從長遠來看，這對我們的業務來說是個好兆頭，因為北美人歷來是最早預訂、獲得最高票價和在船上花費最多的客人。總而言之，儘管當前存在微觀經濟擔憂和動蕩的地緣政治環境，但這些因素有助於我們保持強勁的賬面地位。

Last quarter, we spoke about the 2 indicators in our business that we typically monitor to evaluate the extent and willingness of consumers to spend on cruise travel. The first being the booking window, which provides a peek into the consumer's psyche about the future; and the second being our onboard revenue generation, which is our best real-time now indicator.

上個季度，我們談到了我們通常監控的兩個業務指標，以評估消費者在郵輪旅行上的消費程度和意願。第一個是預訂窗口，可以窺探消費者對未來的心理；第二個是我們的車載創收，這是我們最好的實時指標。

Both of these indicators continue to meet or exceed our expectations. In fact, our onboard revenue generation continues to break records as onboard revenue per passenger cruise day was approximately 30% higher than the comparable 2019 period.

這兩項指標繼續達到或超過我們的預期。事實上，我們的船上收入繼續打破記錄，因為每位乘客遊輪日的船上收入比 2019 年同期高出約 30%。

In addition, our booking window in the third quarter was approximately 245 days, nearly 10% ahead of the same quarter in 2019. This is important because an elongated booking window is preferable as it provides better visibility, which allows us to increase prices sooner while moderating marketing expense.

此外，我們第三季度的預訂窗口約為 245 天，比 2019 年同季度提前了近 10%。這很重要，因為拉長的預訂窗口更可取，因為它提供了更好的可見性，這使我們能夠更快地提高價格，同時節制營銷費用。

The last catalyst I want to touch on is our industry-leading new build pipeline outlined on Slide 7, which we expect will enhance our brand profile and product offerings and most importantly, drive significant revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted earnings per share and cash flow growth.

我想談的最後一個催化劑是幻燈片 7 中概述的行業領先的新建管道，我們預計這將提升我們的品牌形象和產品供應，最重要的是，推動可觀的收入、調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的每股收益和現金流生長。

Turning to Slide 8. In August, we celebrated the christening of our newest ship, Norwegian Prima in Reykjavik, Iceland, the first major cruise ship christening in this historic seafaring locale. Prima has been incredibly well received with extremely positive feedback from the guests, travel partners, media and the investment community who have participated in the ship sailings so far.

轉到幻燈片 8。 8 月，我們在冰島雷克雅未克慶祝了我們最新的遊輪挪威 Prima 的洗禮，這是第一艘在這個歷史悠久的航海地區洗禮的大型遊輪。 Prima 受到了迄今為止參與船舶航行的客人、旅行合作夥伴、媒體和投資界的非常積極的反饋。

The addition of Prima in her upcoming 5 sister ships, along with Oceania Cruises new generation Vista class ships and Regent Seven Seas Grandeur, well without a doubt, reinforced the positioning of our brands as the leaders in providing upscale experiences in each of the major cruise categories.

毫無疑問，Prima 將加入她即將到來的 5 艘姊妹船，以及 Oceania Cruises 新一代 Vista 級船舶和 Regent Seven Seas Grandeur，這無疑加強了我們品牌作為在每個主要郵輪提供高檔體驗的領導者的定位類別。

Looking ahead to 2023, we have 3 new builds, one for each brand entering the fleet with over 5,000 additional berths. These new ships are expected to attract new-to-brand guests, create excitement for our loyal pass guests and contribute significantly to top and bottom line financial results.

展望 2023 年，我們將有 3 艘新船，每個品牌進入船隊，並增加 5,000 多個泊位。預計這些新船將吸引新品牌客人，為我們的忠誠通票客人創造興奮，並為收入和財務業績做出重大貢獻。

With the relatively small size of our current 29-ship fleet, we are confident that we can absorb this capacity growth. Not only do we have many unserved and underserved markets around the world, but we also continue to believe that the cruise industry at large is vastly underpenetrated, especially when measured against other land-based vacation alternatives.

由於我們目前的 29 艘船隊規模相對較小，我們有信心能夠吸收這種運力增長。我們不僅在世界各地有許多服務不足和服務不足的市場，而且我們還繼續相信整個郵輪行業的滲透率非常低，尤其是與其他陸上度假選擇相比時。

To put this point into perspective, as you can see on Slide 9, which we provided at our investor event last month, the total number of staterooms aboard our 29 ships across our 3 brands is less than 1/4 the total number of hotel rooms in Orlando, Florida alone, just one city and one single country. And even if you look at the entire cruise industry, there are fewer staterooms in the global cruise fleet of over 250 ships than there are hotel rooms in the top 3 U.S. cities for hotel capacity, which is Orlando, Las Vegas and Chicago.

從這一點來看，正如您在上個月的投資者活動中提供的幻燈片 9 中所見，我們 3 個品牌的 29 艘船上的客艙總數不到酒店客房總數的 1/4僅在佛羅里達州的奧蘭多，只有一個城市和一個國家。縱觀整個郵輪行業，全球超過 250 艘郵輪的客艙客房數量也少於美國酒店容量排名前 3 的城市（奧蘭多、拉斯維加斯和芝加哥）的酒店客房數量。

So the opportunity to grow demand is significant. And when you couple that with the supply side of the equation where we have a high degree of visibility and a limited pipeline of new ships due to shipyard constraints, the industry and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings in particular, have a strong foundation for continued growth.

因此，增長需求的機會非常重要。當您將其與等式的供應方結合起來時，由於造船廠的限制，我們具有高度的知名度和有限的新船管道，該行業，尤其是挪威郵輪控股公司，為持續增長奠定了堅實的基礎。

Shifting our discussions now to our bookings, demand and pricing trends. As you can see on Slide 10, in the third quarter, our load factor was approximately 82%, in line with our guidance and demonstrating continued and substantial improvement over the prior quarter of 65%. We expect load factors to continue improving sequentially to the mid- to high 80% range in the fourth quarter, despite the fourth quarter historically being a seasonally lower occupancy quarter than the third quarter.

現在將我們的討論轉移到我們的預訂、需求和定價趨勢上。正如您在幻燈片 10 上看到的那樣，在第三季度，我們的載客率約為 82%，符合我們的指導，並顯示出比上一季度 65% 的持續和實質性改善。儘管從歷史上看，第四季度的入住率季節性低於第三季度，但我們預計第四季度的客座率將繼續改善至中高 80% 的範圍。

And looking at our quarterly load factor in terms of the gap with 2019, third quarter occupancy was approximately 30% below the comparable 2019 period and we expect continued sequential improvement in closing this gap to about 20% during the fourth quarter. The steady occupancy ramp-up is expected to continue until we reach historical 100% plus levels beginning in the second quarter of 2023.

從與 2019 年的差距來看，我們的季度客座率發現，第三季度的入住率比 2019 年同期低約 30%，我們預計第四季度將繼續改善這一差距，將這一差距縮小至 20% 左右。預計入住率穩步上升，直到我們從 2023 年第二季度開始達到歷史 100% 以上的水平。

In terms of pricing, as you can see on Slide 11, our net per diem price growth in the third quarter of '22 when compared to the third quarter of 2019 was up approximately 5%. This is particularly impressive when considering the hit pricing took with the absence of premium-priced Baltic itineraries in the quarter due to the Russia Ukraine conflict. These strong results demonstrate the effectiveness of our strategy of holding firm on our core to go market strategy of market-to-fill versus discount to fill and maintaining price integrity by emphasizing high-value over low price, which you can see on Slide 12.

在定價方面，正如您在幻燈片 11 上看到的那樣，與 2019 年第三季度相比，我們在 22 年第三季度的每日淨每日津貼價格增長了約 5%。考慮到由於俄羅斯烏克蘭衝突而導致本季度沒有高價的波羅的海航線造成的打擊定價，這一點尤其令人印象深刻。這些強勁的結果表明，我們通過強調高價值而不是低價來維持我們的核心市場戰略的有效性，即市場填充與折扣填充並保持價格完整性，您可以在幻燈片 12 中看到這一點。

I've said this before, and I will reiterate again today, given its high importance that we strongly believe that this strategy is the optimal path to continually deliver high-quality and sustainable profitability once we return to a fully normalized post-pandemic environment, which again, we expect will be in the early second quarter of 2023.

我之前已經說過，今天我將再次重申，鑑於它的高度重要性，我們堅信一旦我們回到完全正常化的大流行後環境，這一戰略是持續提供高質量和可持續盈利能力的最佳途徑，同樣，我們預計將在 2023 年第二季度初。

Turning to Slide 13. As expected, our fourth quarter 2022 booked position remains below that of 2019. That said, pricing continues to be significantly higher when compared to 2019 and even when taking into consideration the dilutive effect of future cruise credit. Dilution from future cruise credits will not carry forward into 2023 as the bonus or value-add portion of certificates issued during the pandemic will expire at year-end.

轉到幻燈片 13。正如預期的那樣，我們 2022 年第四季度的預訂頭寸仍低於 2019 年。也就是說，與 2019 年相比，即使考慮到未來郵輪信貸的稀釋效應，定價仍然顯著提高。由於大流行期間頒發的證書的獎金或增值部分將在年底到期，因此未來郵輪積分的稀釋不會延續到 2023 年。

Focusing in on 2023, our full year book position is equal to 2019's record performance and our ongoing net booking pace is at the level needed to sail full beginning in the second quarter of 2023. We believe our cumulative book position is at the optimal level when balancing our desire to encourage guests to book early in order to be approximately 65% booked by year-end for the following year, while also maximizing our industry-leading pricing so as not to leave yield on the table. This volume versus price dynamic is a delicate balance that we have fine-tuned over the years using historical itinerary specific data and our sophisticated revenue management system and is key to our success.

著眼於 2023 年，我們的全年賬面頭寸與 2019 年的創紀錄業績相當，我們持續的淨預訂速度處於從 2023 年第二季度開始全面航行所需的水平。我們相信我們的累計賬面頭寸處於最佳水平平衡我們鼓勵客人提前預訂以便在下一年年底前預訂約 65% 的願望，同時最大限度地提高我們行業領先的定價，以免留下收益。這種數量與價格的動態是我們多年來使用歷史行程特定數據和我們複雜的收入管理系統進行微調的微妙平衡，是我們成功的關鍵。

Pricing is also significantly higher for 2023 versus the comparable 2019 period with strength seen across all 3 brands. As we have said previously, pricing naturally will level off as we fill out our book for 2023, but we continue to expect to achieve record pricing for full year 2023. As we look to the future, our entire team is mobilized, energized and ready to flawlessly execute, our eyes are wide open, and we are preparing for multiple scenarios given the current heightened uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, and we are ready to adapt and pivot if needed. Our company and our industry has demonstrated its resilience time and again in the past. And I'm confident that if necessary, we will do so again.

與 2019 年同期相比，2023 年的定價也顯著提高，所有 3 個品牌都表現出實力。正如我們之前所說，隨著我們填寫 2023 年的賬簿，定價自然會趨於平穩，但我們繼續期望在 2023 年全年實現創紀錄的定價。展望未來，我們的整個團隊都動員起來，充滿活力並做好準備為了完美地執行，我們睜大了眼睛，鑑於當前宏觀經濟環境的不確定性加劇，我們正在為多種情況做準備，我們已準備好在需要時進行調整和調整。我們公司和我們的行業在過去一次又一次地展示了它的韌性。我相信，如果有必要，我們會再次這樣做。

We are also encouraged by the relaxation of protocols in the regulatory and public health environment, which paved the way for us to return to normal operations, and we are excited to welcome the 8 additional ships to our fleet we have on order through 2027. We will continue to be disciplined and strategic as we work to set our company up for long-term success and to maximize value for all stakeholders.

我們還對放寬監管和公共衛生環境中的協議感到鼓舞，這為我們恢復正常運營鋪平了道路，我們很高興歡迎我們在 2027 年之前訂購的另外 8 艘船加入我們的船隊。我們在我們努力建立公司以取得長期成功並為所有利益相關者實現價值最大化的過程中，我們將繼續保持紀律性和戰略性。

I'll be back with closing comments a little later. But for now, I'll turn the call over to Mark for his commentary on our financial position. Mark?

稍後我會帶著結束評論回來。但現在，我將把電話轉給馬克，讓他對我們的財務狀況發表評論。標記？

Thank you, Frank, and good morning, everyone. My commentary today will focus on our third quarter financial results and outlook and the progress we continue to make on our path to full recovery. Slide 14 outlines key metrics highlighting our third quarter results, all of which were at or above our previous guidance.

謝謝你，弗蘭克，大家早上好。我今天的評論將重點關注我們第三季度的財務業績和前景，以及我們在全面復甦道路上繼續取得的進展。幻燈片 14 概述了突出我們第三季度業績的關鍵指標，所有這些指標都達到或高於我們之前的指導。

During the quarter, our load factor improved 17 points over the prior quarter to 82%, in line with the guidance previously provided. This is consistent with our phased and methodical approach to ramping up occupancies while maintaining pricing discipline as we remain on track to reach historical load factor levels for the second quarter of 2023.

在本季度，我們的載客率比上一季度提高了 17 個百分點，達到 82%，與之前提供的指導一致。這與我們分階段、有條不紊地增加入住率的方法一致，同時保持定價紀律，因為我們仍有望達到 2023 年第二季度的歷史載客率水平。

Fourth quarter load factor is expected to be in the mid- to high 80% range, which, while on the surface appears only modestly higher than third quarter represents continued significant improvement when taking into account the seasonality of our operations. Strong ticket pricing and onboard revenue generation drove total revenue per passenger cruise day in the quarter, up approximately 14% versus 2019 better than our expectation for a high single-digit increase. This is particularly impressive given the impact in 2022 of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on premium-priced Baltic itineraries, which are heavily weighted to this quarter.

第四季度的載客率預計將在 80% 的中高水平，雖然表面上看起來僅略高於第三季度，但考慮到我們運營的季節性，這代表著持續的顯著改善。強勁的票價和船上創收推動本季度每個乘客遊輪日的總收入與 2019 年相比增長約 14%，好於我們預期的高個位數增長。考慮到 2022 年俄羅斯-烏克蘭衝突對高價波羅的海航線的影響，這一點尤其令人印象深刻，這些航線在本季度佔很大比重。

In addition, [fruit-related] capacity constraints on the high-yielding Pride of America were another headwind during the quarter. As we look to the fourth quarter, we expect this metric to increase by approximately 20% compared to 2019 levels.

此外，對高產美國驕傲的[水果相關]產能限制是本季度的另一個不利因素。展望第四季度，我們預計該指標將比 2019 年的水平增加約 20%。

Slide 15 illustrates our advanced ticket sales build, which continues to indicate healthy consumer demands. Our total ATS balance stood at $2.5 billion at the end of the third quarter, flat versus the prior quarter's record high balance and versus the seasonal decline we typically see between the second and third quarter. On a gross basis, ATS build was $1.5 billion, consistent with the prior quarter, which was the highest level in 3 years.

幻燈片 15 展示了我們先進的門票銷售構建，這繼續表明健康的消費者需求。第三季度末，我們的 ATS 總餘額為 25 億美元，與上一季度的創紀錄高餘額以及我們通常在第二季度和第三季度之間看到的季節性下降持平。 ATS 建設總額為 15 億美元，與上一季度一致，為 3 年來的最高水平。

In addition, approximately $1.6 billion of the total ATS balance at quarter end is associated with bookings that are already within the final payment window and therefore, subject to cancellation penalties, which, by definition, results in stickier bookings and lower risk of churn.

此外，在季度末的 ATS 總餘額中，約有 16 億美元與已經在最終付款窗口內的預訂相關，因此會受到取消處罰，根據定義，這會導致預訂粘性更高並降低流失風險。

Turning to costs. We continue to feel the impact of inflation and global supply chain constraints, which is pressuring margins in the near term. As seen on Slide 16, we have opportunistically added to our fuel hedge position during the quarter and are now approximately 44% hedged for the remainder of '22 and approximately 38% hedged for 2023. We continue to expect adjusted net cruise costs excluding fuel per capacity day to decrease approximately 10% in the second half of 2022 compared to the first half.

轉向成本。我們繼續感受到通脹和全球供應鏈限制的影響，這在短期內給利潤率帶來壓力。如幻燈片 16 所示，我們在本季度機會主義地增加了我們的燃料對沖頭寸，現在在 22 年剩餘時間對沖約 44%，在 2023 年對沖約 38%。我們繼續預計調整後的淨巡航成本，不包括每與上半年相比，2022 年下半年的運力天數將減少約 10%。

Given our ongoing ramp up, second half costs are not representative of a go-forward run rate, in part due to the additional demand-generating marketing investments as we lay the foundation for 2023 which we expect will normalize closer to historical levels on a capacity adjusted basis beginning next year.

鑑於我們的持續增長，下半年成本並不代表未來的運行速度，部分原因是我們為 2023 年奠定基礎時產生了額外的需求產生的營銷投資，我們預計這將使產能正常化接近歷史水平明年開始調整基數。

In addition, we are starting to see some moderation of the hyperinflation we have seen in areas of late -- in areas such as food costs and related. Looking ahead to 2023, net cruise costs excluding fuel per capacity, they will exceed 2019 levels as anticipated due to both normal and hyperinflation over the past 3 to 4 years. However, we are laser-focused on managing our cost base and our entire team is focused on mitigating this impact by increasing efficiencies and rightsizing the business all while still preserving the exceptional guest experience our brands are known for.

此外，我們開始看到我們最近在食品成本和相關領域看到的惡性通貨膨脹有所緩和。展望 2023 年，由於過去 3 至 4 年的正常通脹和惡性通脹，不包括單位容量燃料的淨郵輪成本將超過 2019 年的預期水平。然而，我們專注於管理我們的成本基礎，我們的整個團隊都專注於通過提高效率和調整業務規模來減輕這種影響，同時仍然保持我們品牌聞名的卓越客戶體驗。

To help with modeling, we have also provided additional guidance on key metrics like capacity days, revenue expectations, depreciation and amortization, interest expense, fuel consumption and capital expenditures, all of which can be found on Slide 17 and in our earnings release.

為了幫助建模，我們還提供了關於產能天數、收入預期、折舊和攤銷、利息支出、燃料消耗和資本支出等關鍵指標的額外指導，所有這些都可以在幻燈片 17 和我們的收益發布中找到。

Shifting to our financial performance. Slide 18 demonstrates our continued momentum and consistency in achieving key milestones. Last quarter, we generated operating cash flow for the first full quarter since the beginning of the pandemic. And this quarter, we are pleased to report positive adjusted EBITDA of approximately $28 million. The next step forward is our expectation to achieve adjusted free cash flow in the fourth quarter. We have been clear throughout our return to service that this will not be an overnight lift the switch process, particularly given our intense focus on best positioning our company to maximize profitability once we return to a fully normalized operating environment. On our current trajectory, each of these building blocks are expected to lead to record net yields and record adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2023.

轉向我們的財務業績。幻燈片 18 展示了我們在實現關鍵里程碑方面的持續動力和一致性。上個季度，我們為自大流行開始以來的第一個完整季度產生了經營現金流。本季度，我們很高興地報告約 2800 萬美元的正調整 EBITDA。下一步是我們期望在第四季度實現調整後的自由現金流。在我們恢復服務的過程中，我們一直很清楚，這不會是一夜之間完成轉換的過程，特別是考慮到我們非常關注公司的最佳定位，以便在我們恢復完全正常化的運營環境後最大限度地提高盈利能力。在我們目前的軌跡上，這些組成部分中的每一個都有望在 2023 年全年創造創紀錄的淨收益率和創紀錄的調整後 EBITDA。

Moving to liquidity and our balance sheet on Slide 19. Our overall liquidity position remains strong totaling approximately $2.2 billion at quarter end, consisting of cash of approximately $1.2 billion and the undrawn $1 billion commitment. Keep in mind that during the third quarter, we took delivery of Norwegian Prima, which resulted in a cash outlay, partially offset by incremental ECA ship financing.

轉到幻燈片 19 上的流動性和我們的資產負債表。我們的整體流動性狀況保持強勁，截至季度末總計約 22 億美元，其中包括約 12 億美元的現金和未提取的 10 億美元承諾。請記住，在第三季度，我們接收了挪威 Prima，這導致了現金支出，部分被 ECA 增加的船舶融資所抵消。

Based on our current projections, and trajectory, we continue to believe we will be able to meet our liquidity needs organically.

根據我們目前的預測和軌跡，我們仍然相信我們將能夠有機地滿足我們的流動性需求。

Slide 20 demonstrates the result of our deliberate measures throughout the pandemic to optimize our debt maturity profile, which positions us well as we ramp up to a normal operating environment. For the remainder of 2022 and for the full year '23, we have approximately $300 million and $1 billion of debt payments coming due, respectively. The vast majority of which are related to our low-cost export credit agency-backed ship financing. We have previously disclosed that we are in the process of extending our operating credit facility, consisting of our revolver and term loan A which mature in early 2024, and we are on track to complete this by year-end.

幻燈片 20 展示了我們在整個大流行期間為優化債務到期狀況而採取的慎重措施的結果，這使我們在進入正常運營環境時處於有利地位。在 2022 年剩餘時間和 23 年全年，我們分別有大約 3 億美元和 10 億美元的債務到期。其中絕大多數與我們的低成本出口信貸機構支持的船舶融資有關。我們此前曾披露，我們正在擴大我們的經營信貸額度，包括我們的循環貸款和定期貸款 A，將於 2024 年初到期，我們有望在年底前完成這項工作。

Upon completion, we expect to have a relatively smooth maturity profile over the course of the next few years. For additional detail on the breakdown of upcoming debt payments through 2027, we provide a detailed schedule on our Investor Relations website. Our total debt portfolio is approximately 75% fixed rate today. And this is expected to increase to approximately 80% by year-end 2023, with the addition of 3 new builds next year, which positions us well in a rising rate environment.

完成後，我們預計在未來幾年內將擁有相對平穩的成熟度。有關到 2027 年即將到來的債務支付細目的更多詳細信息，我們在我們的投資者關係網站上提供了詳細的時間表。今天，我們的總債務組合約為 75% 的固定利率。預計到 2023 年底，這一比例將增加到約 80%，明年將增加 3 座新建築，這使我們在利率上升的環境中處於有利地位。

Turning to Slide 21. In addition to maximizing our current fleet, our expected future earnings growth from today's normalized levels will be fueled by the transformational growth profile we already have in the pipeline, representing a 50% growth in capacity versus 2019 levels.

轉到幻燈片 21。除了最大限度地利用我們目前的機隊外，我們預期的未來盈利增長將受到我們已經在籌備中的轉型增長概況的推動，與 2019 年的水平相比，產能增長了 50%。

As Frank touched on, we welcome this new capacity given our company and more broadly, the cruise industry's under penetration within the larger leisure landscape. Our new ships have a very favorable and efficient financing structure locked in at the time of contract which results in an expected immediate boost to profitability once they enter service.

正如弗蘭克所說，鑑於我們公司以及更廣泛地說，郵輪行業在更大的休閒領域中的滲透率較低，我們歡迎這種新的能力。我們的新船在合同簽訂時就鎖定了非常有利和高效的融資結構，一旦投入使用，預計將立即提高盈利能力。

For all new builds on order, our financing is committed at fixed rates averaging approximately 2.5% over the portfolio. Another important component of our newbuild pipeline is that well prior to a ship delivery, we are already receiving significant cash flows in the form of advanced ticket sales and presale of onboard revenue streams. This typically equates to roughly $100 million to $150 million of cash inflow from future bookings prior to a vessel's first revenue sailing essentially resulting in a cash infusion into the business that continues to build over time as final payments for future voyages also become due.

對於所有新訂單，我們的融資以固定利率承諾，平均約為投資組合的 2.5%。我們新建管道的另一個重要組成部分是，在船舶交付之前，我們已經以提前售票和預售船上收入流的形式獲得了大量現金流。這通常相當於在船舶首次航行之前從未來預訂中產生大約 1 億至 1.5 億美元的現金流入，這實質上會為業務注入現金，隨著未來航程的最終付款也到期，該業務會隨著時間的推移而繼續發展。

Before handing the call back to Frank, I want to reiterate that while we are proud of the tremendous progress we have made to date, we are not taking our foot off the gas and are relentlessly focused on executing our medium- and long-term financial strategy as laid out on Slide 22. We are keeping a close watch on the macroeconomic environment and are preparing to adapt to any potential scenario, but we are confident we are taking the right steps to set up our company for a successful future.

在將電話轉回給弗蘭克之前，我想重申，雖然我們為迄今為止取得的巨大進步感到自豪，但我們並沒有鬆懈，而是堅持不懈地專注於執行我們的中長期財務戰略如幻燈片 22 所述。我們正在密切關注宏觀經濟環境，並準備適應任何潛在的情況，但我們相信我們正在採取正確的步驟來建立我們的公司，以取得成功的未來。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Frank for closing comments.

有了這個，我將把電話轉回給弗蘭克以結束評論。

Thank you, Mark. Before we wrap up our prepared remarks, I'd like to provide an update on our global sustainability program, Sail & Sustain, which Slide 23 outlines key accomplishments and milestones.

謝謝你，馬克。在結束我們準備好的評論之前，我想提供有關我們全球可持續發展計劃 Sail & Sustain 的最新信息，幻燈片 23 概述了關鍵成就和里程碑。

Since we last spoke, we continue to advance our commitment to pursue net zero greenhouse gas emissions. We successfully completed the testing of a biodiesel fuel blend on Regent Seven Seas Splendor in October, and we announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding with MAN Energy Solutions to conduct a feasibility study and retrofitting an existing engine to operate with dual-fuels, diesel and methanol. We will continue to evaluate a variety of alternative fuels and share learnings with other companies as we collectively try to find a viable long-term solution.

自我們上次發言以來，我們繼續推進我們追求溫室氣體淨零排放的承諾。我們於 10 月在 Regent Seven Seas Splendor 上成功完成了生物柴油混合燃料的測試，我們宣布與 MAN Energy Solutions 簽署諒解備忘錄，以進行可行性研究並改造現有發動機以使用雙燃料柴油運行和甲醇。我們將繼續評估各種替代燃料，並與其他公司分享經驗，共同努力尋找可行的長期解決方案。

In September, after Hurricane Ian had a devastating impact to our neighbors in Southwest Florida, we responded as quickly and as generously as we could and donated $100,000 to the American Red Cross to assist in emergency relief efforts. We also committed to matching donations from team members, business partners, travel agents and concerned guests and others in our network up to an additional $100,000.

9 月，在颶風伊恩對佛羅里達州西南部的鄰居造成毀滅性影響後，我們盡可能迅速和慷慨地做出反應，並向美國紅十字會捐贈了 100,000 美元，以協助緊急救援工作。我們還承諾匹配團隊成員、業務合作夥伴、旅行社和相關客人以及我們網絡中其他人的捐款，最高可達 100,000 美元。

And before turning the call over to Q&A, I'd like to leave you with some key takeaways, which you can find on Slide 24. First, we believe we are very well positioned in the current economic environment given NCLH's unique drivers, which have allowed us to excel financially in the past and will continue to do so in the future.

在將電話轉至問答環節之前，我想為您提供一些關鍵要點，您可以在幻燈片 24 上找到這些要點。首先，鑑於 NCLH 獨特的驅動因素，我們相信我們在當前的經濟環境中處於非常有利的位置，這些驅動因素具有讓我們過去在財務上表現出色，並將在未來繼續這樣做。

Second, we are hitting our targets and reaching key milestones in our path back to normalcy. We are focused on laying the foundation for long-term sustainable profitability for 2023 and beyond.

其次，我們正在實現我們的目標，並在我們恢復正常的道路上達到關鍵里程碑。我們專注於為 2023 年及以後的長期可持續盈利能力奠定基礎。

Third, our target upmarket consumer continues to hold strong, which is reflected in our excellent book position and significantly higher pricing for '23 as well as our impressive onboard revenue performance.

第三，我們的目標高端消費者繼續保持強勁，這反映在我們出色的賬面地位和 23 年顯著更高的定價以及我們令人印象深刻的船上收入表現上。

And lastly, our cash generation engine has revved up, which, along with our new build pipeline provides a clear path for return to meaningful profitability and a deleveraging of our balance sheet in the coming years.

最後，我們的現金生成引擎已經加速，與我們新建的管道一起，為在未來幾年恢復有意義的盈利能力和資產負債表去槓桿化提供了明確的途徑。

We've covered a lot today, so I'll conclude right now with our commentary and open the call for your questions. Operator?

今天我們已經介紹了很多，所以我現在將以我們的評論結束，並打開電話詢問您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Before we get to the questions on the line, we first want to address a top question from our new online shareholder Q&A platform, which provides all of our investors another avenue to submit and up vote questions for management. Several of the top questions we received this quarter were centered around the same key theme, which was our comfort around our current financial position and liquidity, particularly if we face an economic slowdown or recession.

在我們開始在線提問之前，我們首先想解決來自我們新的在線股東問答平台的一個熱門問題，該平台為我們所有的投資者提供了另一種途徑來提交和投票給管理層的問題。本季度我們收到的幾個主要問題都圍繞著同一個關鍵主題，即我們對當前財務狀況和流動性的安慰，尤其是在我們面臨經濟放緩或衰退的情況下。

Mark, do you want to answer that one?

馬克，你要回答那個嗎？

Sure. Thanks, Jessica. And it's very exciting to have this new engagement platform being utilized by our broad shareholder base. So nice step forward.

當然。謝謝，傑西卡。讓我們廣泛的股東基礎使用這個新的參與平台非常令人興奮。如此美好的一步。

Look, we feel good about our liquidity position today, which is north of $2.2 billion. And as I said, that consisted of cash of $1.2 billion and the $1 billion undrawn commitment.

看，我們對今天超過 22 億美元的流動性狀況感到滿意。正如我所說，這包括 12 億美元的現金和 10 億美元的未提取承諾。

As I said in my prepared remarks, based on our current projections and trajectory, we do believe we will be able to meet our liquidity needs organically. So far, despite the heightened concerns around the economy, we have not seen any signs of a pullback from our target consumer. We continue to believe that we are better -- relatively better positioned in the event of an economic downturn given our brands skewed to the higher end of their respective market categories. And that results in a more upmarket consumer, which typically has been very resilient to weaker economic environments.

正如我在準備好的講話中所說，根據我們目前的預測和軌跡，我們相信我們將能夠有機地滿足我們的流動性需求。到目前為止，儘管對經濟的擔憂加劇，但我們還沒有看到我們的目標消費者有任何回落的跡象。鑑於我們的品牌偏向於各自市場類別的高端，我們仍然相信我們會更好——在經濟低迷的情況下相對更好的定位。這導致了更高檔的消費者，他們通常對疲軟的經濟環境非常有彈性。

So we'll continue to monitor the evolving landscape, and we're preparing for multiple scenarios. But overall, we feel confident that if faced with challenges, we will demonstrate our resilience as we have so many times in the past.

因此，我們將繼續監控不斷變化的形勢，並為多種情況做準備。但總體而言，我們有信心，如果面臨挑戰，我們將展示我們過去無數次的韌性。

Our first question from the line comes from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

我們的第一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

A couple of questions for you regarding commissions. Certainly been a lot of news about your changes in the NCF. And could you tell why is now the right time for that? And then related to that, it would seem that this is something your competitors could do -- and if they did it, maybe this -- it's sort of a net zero, if everybody is doing it. Why do you see a competitive advantage of doing that at this time? And then I'll have one more follow-up question.

關於佣金的幾個問題。當然有很多關於你在 NCF 中的變化的消息。你能說出為什麼現在是這樣做的合適時機嗎？然後與此相關，這似乎是你的競爭對手可以做的事情——如果他們做到了，也許這個——如果每個人都在做的話，這有點淨零。為什麼您會在此時看到這樣做的競爭優勢？然後我還有一個後續問題。

Patrick, it's Frank. A couple of reasons. Number one, the travel agency community is not fully yet back to pre-pandemic levels, at least not for the cruise space. Because while we were out and remember, we were out nearly 500 days, travel agents had to continue making a living, and they made a living by selling more land resorts, more land vacations than they ever had before and they're still doing it. So we have to find a way to draw them back to the cruise industry and away from the land vacations, which is our #1 competitor anyway as opposed to other cruise brands. And we think this is a way to do it.

帕特里克，是弗蘭克。有幾個原因。第一，旅行社社區還沒有完全恢復到大流行前的水平，至少郵輪空間還沒有。因為當我們外出並記得時，我們外出將近 500 天，旅行社不得不繼續謀生，他們通過出售比以往更多的土地度假村、更多的土地度假來謀生，而且他們仍在這樣做.所以我們必須想辦法把他們拉回郵輪行業，遠離陸地度假，這是我們的第一大競爭對手，而不是其他郵輪品牌。我們認為這是一種方法。

We actually did an experiment over the summer using a relatively good-sized sample. And we found that travel agents who were paid commissions on these non-commissionable fares increased their business with us significantly such that the revenue that they generated over a long period of time, more than offset the increase in commission expense. So we think this is an ROI type of move.

實際上，我們在夏天使用了一個相對較大的樣本進行了實驗。我們發現，在這些非佣金票價上獲得佣金的旅行社顯著增加了他們與我們的業務，以至於他們在很長一段時間內產生的收入超過了佣金費用的增加。所以我們認為這是一種投資回報率的舉措。

In many ways, I hope the competition does match this because I think it will be great overall for the travel agency community, which we all rely on. And at the end of the day, it's not about so much about commission savings, it's all about generating additional revenue and filling the vessels that are coming online for us and for the rest of the industry. So I know of no company has ever made their mark by saving and saving and saving. You make your mark in the top line. And this is what this -- that's what this move is meant to do to generate more revenue. And your second question, Patrick?

在很多方面，我希望比賽能做到這一點，因為我認為這對我們都依賴的旅行社社區來說總體上會很棒。歸根結底，這與節省佣金無關，而是為我們和其他行業創造額外的收入並填補即將上線的船隻。所以我知道沒有一家公司曾經通過儲蓄、儲蓄和儲蓄來取得成功。你在第一行留下你的印記。這就是這個 - 這就是此舉旨在產生更多收入的目的。你的第二個問題，帕特里克？

Yes. That makes sense. Just taking a look actually at the 3Q results, and this was also for 2Q as well. Can you remind us why, again, and this was before you made your commission change. Why were commissions and onboard cost rates so much higher than comparable in 2019?

是的。那講得通。實際看一下第三季度的結果，這也是第二季度的結果。您能否再次提醒我們原因，這是在您更改佣金之前。為什麼佣金和船上成本率遠高於 2019 年的可比價格？

Patrick, this is Mark. I touched on that last quarter. So if you recall, as part of our overall (inaudible) and part of our broader bundling package, we introduced a significantly new air program. So we started to see some of the cost of that flowing through in the second quarter. And then, of course, if you look at the third quarter, that's where most of our ships are often the more premium and exotic itinerary. So you do see a higher cost of air component within that.

帕特里克，這是馬克。我談到了最後一個季度。因此，如果您還記得，作為我們整體（聽不清）的一部分和我們更廣泛的捆綁包的一部分，我們引入了一個全新的空中計劃。因此，我們開始在第二季度看到其中的一些成本。然後，當然，如果您查看第三季度，那是我們的大多數船隻通常是更優質和異國情調的行程的地方。因此，您確實看到其中空氣組件的成本更高。

That said, on a net-net basis, it does drive better overall net revenue per diems, and that's certainly evidenced by our performance in the last 2 to 3 quarters.

也就是說，在淨淨額基礎上，它確實推動了更好的每日總淨收入，我們在過去 2 到 3 個季度的表現無疑證明了這一點。

Our next question comes from Robin Farley with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

Great. I wonder if you could sort of put a range for us around when you talk about price being up significantly for 2023 to get a sense of what range that may be? I know you had given a range with Q2 results and indicated that, that would come down as load moved up. But wondering if you'd sort of give a similar ballpark.

偉大的。我想知道當您談到 2023 年價格大幅上漲時，您是否可以為我們設定一個範圍，以了解可能的範圍？我知道您已經給出了第二季度結果的範圍，並表示隨著負載的增加，該範圍會下降。但想知道你是否會給出一個類似的球場。

Robin, it's Mark. So I'm going to hold Frank back off on that one because I think if you recall last quarter, we said it was going to be a onetime data point. So I have to be the bad guy in the room.

羅賓，是馬克。所以我要讓弗蘭克在那個問題上停下來，因為我想如果你回想上個季度，我們說過這將是一個一次性的數據點。所以我必須成為房間裡的壞人。

Look, our pricing, as we said 30 days ago, is significantly up. We reiterated that today in our release. It's up. I cannot give you a range. We gave you the onetime data point. We did say that, that we would expect that to level off, but it's up significantly. And again, that is all part of our phased ramp-up strategy. We're protecting price. We want the consumer to pay more. Yes, are we -- is there an offset in the very short term that we are sacrificing a small amount of load factor. Yes, we've said that, but that is part of our strategy. We expect to be back at normalized load factors in the second -- for the second quarter of next year.

看，正如我們在 30 天前所說，我們的定價顯著上漲。我們在今天的新聞稿中重申了這一點。它起來了。我不能給你一個範圍。我們為您提供了一次性數據點。我們確實說過，我們希望它會趨於平穩，但它顯著上升。同樣，這都是我們分階段提升戰略的一部分。我們正在保護價格。我們希望消費者支付更多。是的，我們是否 - 在很短的時間內，我們會犧牲少量的負載係數來抵消。是的，我們已經說過，但這是我們戰略的一部分。我們預計明年第二季度將恢復正常的載客率。

So we are right on path. We are right on track with our intentional actions. And all I can tell you is that pricing is up, and that continues to show in both our actual results. And if you recall in my prepared remarks, I said that gross pricing is expected to be up 20% in Q4. So if you think about that, you can kind of get an idea of where we're trending. But all signs are looking good for next year.

所以我們是正確的。我們的有意行動步入正軌。我只能告訴你的是，價格上漲了，這繼續在我們的實際結果中體現出來。如果你還記得我在準備好的講話中，我說過第四季度的總定價預計將上漲 20%。因此，如果您考慮一下，就可以大致了解我們的趨勢。但明年所有跡像都看起來不錯。

That's great. And just as a follow-up, just to clarify on your comments about the expense -- the net cruise costs for 2023. You said it would normalize in 2023. Will that be as soon as Q1? In other words, is this extremely elevated cost here in -- is it just a Q4 thing or is it going to take you a couple of quarters for it to normalize? Just trying to clarify what sort of in 2020, is it by 2023 or at some point during 2023?

那太棒了。作為後續行動，只是為了澄清你對費用的評論——2023 年的淨遊輪費用。你說它將在 2023 年正常化。最早會在第一季度嗎？換句話說，這裡的成本是否極高——這只是第四季度的事情，還是需要幾個季度才能使其正常化？只是想弄清楚 2020 年是什麼樣的，是到 2023 年還是在 2023 年的某個時候？

Yes, great question. So look, if we look at Q3, where our cost can came in and if you do the math and you imply where Q4 is, it's coming down slightly.

是的，很好的問題。所以看，如果我們看一下第三季度，我們的成本可以在哪裡出現，如果你算一算，你暗示第四季度在哪裡，它會略有下降。

Look, it's going to be a tapering down. And what I would broadly guide you to is that when you look at FY '23, certainly not in the first quarter, but when you look at the year on a whole, you're probably looking at net cruise costs down at least mid-single digits from the prior year. And obviously, we expect to do better than that.

看，它會逐漸減少。我要廣泛指導您的是，當您查看 23 財年時，當然不是在第一季度，但是當您從整體上看時，您可能會看到淨遊輪成本至少在中期下降 -上一年的個位數。顯然，我們希望做得更好。

But you have to really look at the composition of what's going in there. And if you look at the third and fourth quarter, we do still have some trailing COVID-related costs, whether it's testing, additional crew, that is tapering off in the quarter. So we did see some ramping down in Q4 as related to that.

但你必須真正看看裡面發生了什麼。如果你看看第三季度和第四季度，我們仍然有一些與 COVID 相關的尾隨成本，無論是測試、額外的工作人員，這些成本都在本季度逐漸減少。因此，我們確實看到與此相關的第四季度有所下降。

In Q3, we had a significant launch of the new class of vessel, Prima. That's a drag on cost. But the other thing to keep in mind, too, is that starting next year or in '23, we no longer have quarantine cabins that are out of service. So while, and that's a double impact because if you think about that in '22 and especially in Q3 and Q4, from a unit cost standpoint, that impacts our denominator from a capacity day basis. So by the mere fact that we have -- we are putting those cabins back into revenue sale mode, so to speak, for 2023, it will inherently reduce our unit cost but we're also going to get the benefit from additional revenue. So there's a lot of moving parts in 2022. It's just, as I said before, it's a bit of a noisy and bumpy year. But I'll go back to the expectation that at least we expect mid-single-digit decreases. And we're going to do everything in our power to do much better than that.

在第三季度，我們重大推出了新型船舶 Prima。這是對成本的拖累。但也要記住的另一件事是，從明年或 23 年開始，我們不再有停止服務的隔離艙。因此，這是雙重影響，因為如果您從單位成本的角度考慮 22 年，特別是在第三季度和第四季度，這會從產能日的基礎上影響我們的分母。因此，僅憑我們擁有的事實 - 我們正在將這些客艙重新置於收益銷售模式，可以這麼說，到 2023 年，它本質上會降低我們的單位成本，但我們也將從額外的收入中受益。所以 2022 年有很多活動的部分。正如我之前所說，這只是一個嘈雜和顛簸的一年。但我會回到預期，至少我們預計會出現中個位數的下降。我們將竭盡全力做得比這更好。

Just to make sure I understand, when you're saying down mid-single digit, if that's year-over-year, are you saying then sort of relative to '19 that the cost could still be up like 20% or 30%, I'm trying to do the math on the slide here, so maybe...

只是為了確保我理解，當你說的是中個位數時，如果是同比，你是說相對於 19 年成本仍然可能上漲 20% 或 30%，我正在嘗試在此處的幻燈片上進行數學運算，所以也許...

I [will] let you do the math, but I did say in my prepared remarks that we expect cost to be up versus '19 and '23. Recall, we did not have the benefit of removing any older ships from the fleet nor did we have the benefit of selling any higher operating cost brands vis-a-vis some of the broader industry. So when I'm talking about at least what I -- my commentary on mid-single digits, that's off where we are in terms of run rate for Q3 and Q4 of this year, not the entire FY '22.

我 [將] 讓你算一算，但我在準備好的評論中確實說過，我們預計成本會比 '19 和 '23 更高。回想一下，我們沒有從船隊中移除任何舊船的好處，也沒有出售任何運營成本較高的品牌相對於一些更廣泛的行業的好處。因此，當我至少在談論我對中個位數的評論時，這與我們今年第三季度和第四季度的運行率不同，而不是整個 22 財年。

Our next question comes from Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Steve Wieczynski。

So probably for you, Mark. But I want to start with the balance sheet. And we recently saw one of your peers lay out some longer, let's call it, longer-term financial targets in which they see a path back to investment grade over the next let's call it, a couple of years.

所以可能對你來說，馬克。但我想從資產負債表開始。我們最近看到您的一位同行製定了更長的，我們稱之為長期財務目標，他們認為在接下來的幾年中，他們看到了一條回到投資級別的道路，我們稱之為幾年。

Just wondering if you guys have thought about a similar path and maybe what the next couple of years might look like from a deleveraging perspective is I think I remember you guys had some massive deleveraging. I think that was post 2014 or 2015 in which you basically cut your leverage in half over, let's call it, a 3- or 4-year period.

只是想知道你們是否考慮過類似的道路，也許從去槓桿化的角度來看，未來幾年可能會是什麼樣子，我想我記得你們進行了一些大規模的去槓桿化。我認為那是在 2014 年或 2015 年之後，您基本上將槓桿率降低了一半，我們稱之為 3 年或 4 年期。

Also noticed, Mark, your CapEx forecast for 2024 dropped a good bit from last quarter, and I assume that's just your Prima class [plus] ship getting pushed back into early '25, but that's going to allow you guys to generate some significant free cash flow as well in '24, which potentially could help your deleveraging path, if that all makes sense.

還注意到，馬克，您對 2024 年的資本支出預測比上一季度下降了很多，我認為這只是您的 Prima 級 [plus] 船被推遲到 25 年初，但這將使你們產生一些重要的免費24 年的現金流也是如此，如果這一切都有意義的話，這可能有助於你的去槓桿化道路。

Steve, that's a lot to unpack there, but I'll start with, first and foremost, yes, we think about it every day in terms of where this business is going and the opportunity and how do we get back to pre-pandemic levels. As we stated 30 days ago in our investor event, we are charting a path back to success. And first and foremost, that means rightsizing the business, getting the business back to full operating capacity, which is just around the corner. That's going to result in significant cash flow, and that results in delevering and derisking the balance sheet.

史蒂夫，那裡有很多東西要解開，但我首先要開始，是的，我們每天都在考慮這項業務的發展方向和機會以及我們如何恢復到大流行前的水平.正如我們 30 天前在我們的投資者活動中所說的那樣，我們正在規劃一條通往成功的道路。首先，這意味著調整業務規模，讓業務恢復全面運營能力，這指日可待。這將導致大量現金流，並導致資產負債表去槓桿化和去風險化。

So that is what the entire management team as well as our Board is focused on. I've said that before, I said that in 30 days ago. I'm telling you again today. We need to delever this company. We've done it before. We've taken the company down from 9, 10x levered to where we were in the end of '19 at low 3s going into the 2s.

這就是整個管理團隊以及我們的董事會所關注的。我以前說過，我在 30 天前說過。今天我再告訴你。我們需要對這家公司進行去槓桿化。我們以前做過。我們已經將公司從 9 倍、10 倍槓桿率降低到 19 年底的低 3 倍到 2 倍的水平。

So as we look forward, and if I have a crystal ball, as I said at the investor event is we want to turn -- we want to finish FY '23 with a [5-point X] handle in leverage. And then our goal in '24 is a [4-point X] handle and then [3-point X] handle.

因此，正如我們期待的那樣，如果我有一個水晶球，正如我在投資者活動中所說的那樣，我們想要扭轉局面——我們希望以 [5 點 X] 的槓桿作用結束 23 財年。然後我們在 24 年的目標是一個 [4-point X] 句柄，然後是 [3-point X] 句柄。

So we obviously have a path of how we can do that. We need to continue to execute. We need a relatively stable environment, but signs are looking good. We're getting where we need to be. Our strategy is working. Will there be bumps in the road? Yes, there's going to be bumps in the road, but we've proven time and again that we can get past that.

因此，我們顯然有一條如何做到這一點的路徑。我們需要繼續執行。我們需要一個相對穩定的環境，但跡像看起來不錯。我們正在到達我們需要的地方。我們的策略正在奏效。路上會不會有顛簸？是的，道路上會有顛簸，但我們已經一次又一次地證明我們可以克服這一點。

What was the last part of your question now? Yes. Sorry about that. Yes, you're absolutely right. So Look, as we said in our earnings release, we do have a slight delay with the LEO 3 and 4 class vessels. And that is strictly 100% as a result of shipyard delays from supply chain constraints. I think on average, those ships are being delayed on average by about 4 to 5 months each vessel. So that just really just simply pushes some of your CapEx from '24 to '25 and so forth. So a little bit of an opportunity. Certainly, not a huge shift, but given where the world is today, we think that's okay. And that's going to further help us when we think about next year of having -- over the next couple of years, having slightly better lower CapEx that should provide more cash to the business.

你問題的最後一部分是什麼？是的。對於那個很抱歉。是的，你完全正確。所以看，正如我們在收益發布中所說，我們確實對 LEO 3 和 4 級船舶略有延遲。由於供應鏈限制導致造船廠延誤，這完全是 100%。我認為平均而言，這些船每艘船平均延遲約 4 到 5 個月。所以這只是簡單地將你的一些資本支出從'24'推到'25'等等。所以有點機會。當然，這不是一個巨大的轉變，但考慮到當今世界的狀況，我們認為這沒關係。當我們考慮明年的時候，這將進一步幫助我們——在接下來的幾年裡，資本支出略低一些，應該為業務提供更多的現金。

Okay. Understood. And then if I could ask one more question. I know I asked a bunch to you, Mark, but maybe for Frank. Maybe just how you're thinking about the next 4 or 5 months from a booking perspective. And I guess what I'm getting at here is you obviously have had a lot of strong booking activity since all the COVID restrictions have been remote and whatnot. But maybe just how you're thinking Wave season should start to gear up here over the next, call it, 4 or 5 weeks. How are you guys kind of thinking about the booking patterns over the next couple of months? Are you expecting kind of a normalized Wave season from here?

好的。明白了。然後如果我可以再問一個問題。我知道我問了你很多，馬克，但也許是為了弗蘭克。從預訂的角度來看，也許只是您對未來 4 或 5 個月的看法。而且我想我在這裡得到的是，由於所有 COVID 限制都是遠程的等等，您顯然有很多強大的預訂活動。但也許你認為 Wave 季節應該在接下來的 4 或 5 週內開始在這裡加速。你們如何看待未來幾個月的預訂模式？您是否期待從這裡開始一個標準化的 Wave 季節？

No, I think it will be an extraordinary Wave season. It's already started 10 days doesn't make a trend necessarily. But the last 10 days, the Norwegian brand had its best 10-day streak ever, ever. And I think that's going to carry on throughout the fourth quarter and into Wave. Wave is -- it is a consumer event, but travel agents get behind it. And travel agents haven't had a Wave in 3 years, and they're excited. And when I see travel agents excited, I can't help but join them. So I really think that the next 4 months, 5 months into the end of March, which is typically the end of the Wave season are going to be exceptionally strong booking periods.

不，我認為這將是一個非凡的 Wave 賽季。它已經開始了 10 天並不一定會成為趨勢。但在過去的 10 天裡，這家挪威品牌創下了有史以來最好的 10 天連勝紀錄。而且我認為這將在整個第四季度一直持續到 Wave。 Wave 是——它是一個消費者活動，但旅行社支持它。旅行社已經 3 年沒有浪潮了，他們很興奮。而當我看到旅行社興奮時，我會情不自禁地加入他們。所以我真的認為接下來的 4 個月，到 3 月底的 5 個月，通常是 Wave 季節的結束，將會是非常強勁的預訂期。

Our next question is from Dan Politzer with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Dan Politzer。

So Mark, I just wanted to follow up in terms of the spend cadence. I know you mentioned down mid-single digits versus that second half run rate for net cruise costs in 2022. But as we think about for 2023 and I guess the cadence over the course of the year, it sounds like it's going to be certainly front-end weighted. Is that mostly the elevated marketing cost? And then as you kind of exit 2023, how should we think about the net cruise costs?

所以馬克，我只是想跟進支出節奏。我知道您提到 2022 年淨巡航成本與下半年的中位數運行率相比。但當我們考慮 2023 年時，我猜想這一年的節奏，聽起來肯定會領先-結束加權。這主要是提高營銷成本嗎？然後，當您退出 2023 年時，我們應該如何考慮淨郵輪成本？

Yes. Look, I think when you look at the cadence, while it is still a bit early to give exact guidance on cadence, we're still going through all of our operating plans internally. I think it's fair to say that Q1 is going to be probably a bit higher than Q2 would be. And then naturally, I think we're going to start to see more scale in Q2 and Q3. So you're going to continue to see a downward trend. And as you're looking at your models, keep in mind, we do have 3 new ships that we're taking delivery of next year. So there will be some start-up costs related to those. So just keep that in mind. But it's going to be a downward slope next year. And you're going to -- we're already starting to see that take effect.

是的。看，我認為當您查看節奏時，雖然現在給出關於節奏的準確指導還為時過早，但我們仍在內部完成我們所有的運營計劃。我認為可以公平地說第一季度可能會比第二季度高一點。然後自然地，我認為我們將在第二季度和第三季度開始看到更大的規模。因此，您將繼續看到下降趨勢。當您查看您的模型時，請記住，我們確實有 3 艘新船將於明年交付。所以會有一些與這些相關的啟動成本。所以請記住這一點。但明年將呈下降趨勢。你會 - 我們已經開始看到它生效。

Look, as we look into 2024, we're going to continue to garner scale benefit as we take on new capacity. We believe that throughout the course of 2023, we're going to find opportunities, and we're rightsizing the business from some of the cost creep that we've just seen over the last 2 to 3 years. We've had to take hard looks at ourselves and make sure we're doing all the right things. Our first and foremost, we wanted to make sure we were getting back operating in a healthy and safe manner. We've done that. We're doing it. Now we're focusing on what does it take to deliver that product. So we are focused on it. We're attacking it from every angle. But you're going to -- it will be a slow downward trend, but too early to comment on 2024. But just on the surface, we will see some scale benefit.

看，當我們展望 2024 年時，隨著我們增加新產能，我們將繼續獲得規模效益。我們相信，在整個 2023 年期間，我們將尋找機會，並且我們正在從過去 2 到 3 年剛剛看到的一些成本攀升中調整業務規模。我們必須認真審視自己，確保我們做的所有事情都是正確的。首先，我們想確保我們以健康和安全的方式恢復運營。我們已經做到了。我們正在做。現在我們專注於交付該產品需要什麼。所以我們專注於它。我們從各個角度攻擊它。但你會——這將是一個緩慢的下降趨勢，但對 2024 年發表評論還為時過早。但只是表面上，我們會看到一些規模效益。

Got it. And just for my follow-up. In terms of 2023, you gave your deployment mix, which I think was pretty helpful. So as we think about pricing and the top line, to what extent do you attribute that the pricing tracking higher to this more attractive or [optimized] itinerary mix with less Caribbean, more Europe, more Alaska and Asia Pac versus 2019? Or is this more your market to fill strategy and kind of just holding the line on pricing?

知道了。只是為了我的後續行動。就 2023 年而言，您提供了部署組合，我認為這很有幫助。因此，當我們考慮定價和收入時，您在多大程度上將定價跟踪歸因於這種更具吸引力或 [優化] 的行程組合，與 2019 年相比，加勒比地區更少、歐洲更多、阿拉斯加和亞太地區更多？或者這更多的是你的市場來填補戰略和只是堅持定價？

I think it's a little bit of both, Dan, especially the Norwegian brand has pivoted to longer, more exotic, higher-yielding itineraries that book earlier, there's no such thing as a good close in bookings, and that's one of the things that we're trying to get away from. It's part of the strategy over the paying NCF. And by the way, I fail to mention that NCFs are only paid commission if the booking is more than 120 days from booking date. And there's a big demarcation of the quality, the pricing of a booking that is made early rather than close in.

我認為兩者兼而有之，Dan，尤其是挪威品牌已經轉向更早預訂的更長、更異國情調、更高收益的行程，沒有像預訂好的收尾這樣的事情，這是我們的事情之一'正試圖擺脫。這是付費 NCF 策略的一部分。順便說一句，我沒有提到只有從預訂日期起超過 120 天的預訂才會向 NCF 支付佣金。而且質量有很大的界限，提前預訂而不是近距離預訂的定價。

But yes, we've made no bones about that we hold price. We lead the industry by such a wide margin on price that it's almost untouchable and we continue to grow. You see what we've done in second quarter, third quarter of this year compared to our peers, what we're projecting for Q4. We're projecting for 2023. That is the central theme of our go-to-market strategy, and we accomplish it by marketing to fill by bundling and by having top line product on board. So that's going to continue. It is core to our strategy. It's price, price, price.

但是，是的，我們毫不掩飾我們持有價格。我們在價格上以如此巨大的優勢領先於行業，幾乎無法觸及，而且我們還在繼續增長。您會看到我們在今年第二季度和第三季度與同行相比所做的事情，以及我們對第四季度的預測。我們預計到 2023 年。這是我們進入市場戰略的中心主題，我們通過捆綁營銷和擁有頂級產品來實現這一目標。所以這將繼續下去。這是我們戰略的核心。這是價格，價格，價格。

And that's why, as Mark mentioned, we have taken a very disciplined approach to filling. We don't care if we're behind others by a quarter or 2 in terms of load factor, we simply won't sacrifice price because we've seen historically that those who drop prices to ridiculous levels in order to fill take years, if not decades, to recover, and we're simply not prepared to do that.

這就是為什麼，正如馬克所提到的，我們採取了一種非常有紀律的方法來填充。我們不在乎我們在載客率方面是否落後於其他人四分之一或兩個，我們根本不會犧牲價格，因為我們從歷史上看到，那些為了填補而將價格降至荒謬水平的人需要數年時間，如果不是幾十年，要恢復，我們根本不准備這樣做。

Our next question comes from Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research Company.

我們的下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究公司的 Vince Ciepiel。

A little bit longer term. Curious, Frank, your perspective on kind of finding the balance of growing capacity with continuing to source the strongest guests, providing unique and interesting itineraries. I know you talked a little bit about the low penetration rates of cruise. I imagine share gains is kind of part of it. But how are you thinking about kind of managing that build along with continuing to have poor capacity and interesting itineraries to meet that demand you're going after.

長一點的。好奇，弗蘭克，你對找到不斷增長的容量與繼續尋找最強大的客人的平衡的看法，提供獨特而有趣的行程。我知道你談到了巡航的低滲透率。我想分享收益是其中的一部分。但是您如何考慮如何管理該建築以及繼續擁有較差的容量和有趣的行程來滿足您所追求的需求。

That's our secret sauce, Vince, if I tell you, everyone will do it. But I will tell you that there are just dozens, dozens of either underpenetrated or places that we simply don't go because we don't have enough vessels.

這是我們的秘訣，文斯，如果我告訴你，每個人都會這樣做。但我會告訴你，只有幾十個，幾十個要么滲透不足，要么我們根本不去，因為我們沒有足夠的船隻。

Just in the U.S., there are cities in the U.S. that are historically very strong source markets that we don't have a vessel, either seasonally or at least or year round. And we think that with new vessels coming online, we'll be able to do that. Alaska, where we've made huge investments in land-based infrastructure and ports, we're still underpenetrated. The Norwegian brand, for example, only has 4 vessels there. [Oceania and region] only one each. Our competitors have multiples of that. And the reason for that is, is that we need to be in other places.

就在美國，美國有些城市在歷史上是非常強大的客源市場，我們沒有船隻，無論是季節性的，至少是全年的。我們認為，隨著新船上線，我們將能夠做到這一點。阿拉斯加，我們在陸上基礎設施和港口進行了巨額投資，但我們的滲透率仍然不足。例如，挪威品牌在那裡只有 4 艘船。 【大洋洲和地區】各只有一個。我們的競爭對手有好幾倍。原因是，我們需要在其他地方。

So we see Alaska, we see Europe as growth markets. We believe South America is becoming very, very interesting, greater demand for South American ports. Asia has taken a backseat over the last couple of years because of the COVID situation there. But I got to tell you, Japan is red hot for us. Australia is red hot. And so I'm excited about the possibility of going to new places with new ships and continuing to just feed the beast of high-yielding itineraries.

因此，我們將阿拉斯加和歐洲視為增長市場。我們認為，南美對南美港口的需求正變得非常、非常有趣、更大。由於那裡的COVID情況，亞洲在過去幾年中處於次要地位。但我得告訴你，日本對我們來說是炙手可熱的。澳大利亞很紅。因此，我很高興有可能乘坐新船前往新地方，並繼續為高收益行程中的野獸提供食物。

You've heard me say before, Vince, itineraries is the #1 driver of yield. And we think that we do itineraries better than most, and we'll continue to do so.

你之前聽我說過，Vince，行程是收益的第一大驅動因素。我們認為我們比大多數人做得更好，我們將繼續這樣做。

Great. And second for Mark, there's a little bit of confusion on the cost front, and I know you guys don't want to give specific guidance, so I maybe wanted to come at this from a different direction. When you talk about record EBITDA in 2023, which sounds like you guys still feel good about like getting there is some component of price and costs. But as you think about managing the business from a margin perspective, obviously, fuel is outside of your control. But as you just think about the next one to 2 years, those margins ex fuel, [aka] the relationship between price and operating costs. Any reason to think that, that would be a departure from kind of where you've been historically?

偉大的。第二，馬克，在成本方面有一點混亂，我知道你們不想給出具體的指導，所以我可能想從不同的方向來解決這個問題。當您談論 2023 年創紀錄的 EBITDA 時，聽起來你們仍然感覺很好，就像價格和成本的某些組成部分一樣。但是，當您從利潤的角度考慮管理業務時，顯然，燃料不在您的控制範圍內。但是，當您考慮未來一到兩年時，這些利潤（不含燃料），[aka] 價格和運營成本之間的關係。有什麼理由這麼認為，這會與你在歷史上所處的位置背道而馳嗎？

Vince, absolutely not. We've talked about this before. And I'm not going to sit here and tell you today that there is not near-term pressure on margins. We've said there is. We acknowledge that. I'd be a fool not to say that. But I think when you look out over the course of the next year or 2 and you look at where the business is going and where -- the costs will settle, right? This hyperinflationary environment cannot last forever. And we are taking actions internally as well to ensure that we're rightsizing all of the costs of the business.

文斯，絕對不是。我們以前談過這個。而且我今天不會坐在這裡告訴你，利潤率沒有近期壓力。我們說過有。我們承認這一點。如果我不這麼說，我就是個傻瓜。但是我認為，當您展望未來一兩年的過程時，您會看到業務的發展方向和方向-成本會解決，對嗎？這種惡性通貨膨脹環境不可能永遠持續下去。我們也在內部採取行動，以確保我們正確調整所有業務成本。

But more importantly, we believe the operating leverage of this industry and more particularly our company is intact. Is it going to be there in the next quarter or 2, I think that's going to be a challenge. But when you look over the next one to 2 years, certainly, we believe this industry gets back to pre-COVID margin levels and plus. But as I said in my remarks, it is not going to be an overnight flip of the switch. So it's going to take some time. But without a doubt, this industry, we believe, is intact from a margin perspective.

但更重要的是，我們相信這個行業，尤其是我們公司的經營槓桿是完好的。它會在下一季度還是第二季度出現，我認為這將是一個挑戰。但是，當您展望未來一到兩年時，當然，我們相信該行業將恢復到 COVID 之前的利潤率水平甚至更高。但正如我在講話中所說，這不會是一夜之間的轉變。所以這需要一些時間。但毫無疑問，我們認為，從利潤率的角度來看，這個行業是完好無損的。

And Vince, that's why maintaining those high prices is so important because we can control that or at least we can greatly influence pricing and the relationship between marketing and sales and all our distribution channels, whereas you acknowledge that we don't control the cost of fuel, but we don't really control the cost of beef, or carrots or onions or a lot of other things that we consume. And unless you're prepared to slash and burn the product, which will in turn affect your pricing, the best way to control margins or influence margins positively is through pricing, which is what we do.

文斯，這就是為什麼維持這些高價格如此重要，因為我們可以控制這一點，或者至少我們可以極大地影響定價以及營銷和銷售之間的關係以及我們所有的分銷渠道，而你承認我們無法控製成本燃料，但我們並沒有真正控制牛肉、胡蘿蔔或洋蔥或我們消費的許多其他東西的成本。除非您準備大幅削減和燒毀產品，這反過來會影響您的定價，否則控制利潤或積極影響利潤的最佳方式是通過定價，這就是我們所做的。

Our next question comes from James Hardiman with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 James Hardiman。

Some of this has been covered, but I just want to make sure we're able to sort of unpack the difference between gross pricing and net pricing, right?

其中一些已經涵蓋，但我只是想確保我們能夠解開總定價和淨定價之間的差異，對嗎？

In the third quarter, I think gross was up 14% versus 2019. And net was up 5%. It sounds like the difference is some of the bundling the airfare, I guess, as we move forward, some of the NCF stuff is going to be in there. So I guess, as we look to 2023, how should we think about the gap between those 2? Should we expect that to widen even further as we move forward? Or does some of that stuff sort of peel back?

在第三季度，我認為總收入比 2019 年增長了 14%。淨增長了 5%。聽起來不同之處在於捆綁了機票，我想，隨著我們的前進，一些 NCF 的東西將會在那裡。所以我想，當我們展望 2023 年時，我們應該如何看待這兩者之間的差距？隨著我們前進，我們是否應該期望它會進一步擴大？或者有些東西會剝落嗎？

Vince, it's Mark. So you're absolutely right. When you look at the last 2 to 3 quarters, the differential between gross to net has been about anywhere from 8 to 9 points, I think, when you look at the second and third quarter. So if you look at where our implied guidance is for Q4 and you do the math, you're probably going to get to a spread of about 7 points.

文斯，是馬克。所以你是絕對正確的。當您查看過去 2 到 3 個季度時，我認為，當您查看第二和第三季度時，總收入與淨收入之間的差異大約在 8 到 9 分之間。因此，如果您查看我們對第四季度的隱含指導並進行數學計算，您可能會得到大約 7 個點的差價。

So our best view of everything we can see, given the bundling, getting back to normalized load factor levels and full ships, it's probably going to be somewhere in the zone of that 7 to 8-point differential on a run rate basis. Now could it be higher or lower in a particular quarter, it may be a point or 2. But I think generally speaking, we're looking at somewhere around that 7-point differential.

因此，我們對我們所能看到的一切的最佳看法，考慮到捆綁，回到正常的負載率水平和滿船，它可能會在運行率基礎上的 7 到 8 點差異區域的某個地方。現在，它在特定季度會更高或更低，可能是一分或兩分。但我認為一般來說，我們正在關注 7 分左右的差異。

Got it. That's really helpful. And then obviously, one of the things that shaped this year, maybe less so for you than some of your peers. But obviously, Wave season was abject by Omicron and you had the Ukraine conflict, I know it's difficult, but is there any way to quantify or estimate what type of an impact that, that ultimately had on your business this year? And I'm assuming that it's primarily a pricing impact more so than occupancy, but maybe walk us through that.

知道了。這真的很有幫助。然後很明顯，今年形成的一件事，對你來說可能不如你的一些同齡人那麼重要。但很明顯，Wave 季節對 Omicron 來說很糟糕，而且你有烏克蘭衝突，我知道這很困難，但有沒有辦法量化或估計今年最終對你的業務產生了什麼樣的影響？而且我假設這主要是對定價的影響，而不是入住率，但也許會引導我們完成。

Ultimately, I'm just trying to think through or think about what this year would have looked like with a more normal Wave season, which I think we're all hoping that, that is the case in 2023.

歸根結底，我只是想仔細考慮或思考今年的 Wave 季節會是什麼樣子，我認為我們都希望如此，2023 年就是這種情況。

Yes, James, it would have looked a lot better. If you look back at all the major changes that took place starting in early June when the U.S. government no longer required people to test to get back into the country. That was a huge one. It was only 4 or 5 months ago, I think we all want to put COVID so far behind us that we forget some of these major milestones that occurred just very recently. Then of course, the CDC dropping their protocols and allowing us to do what we're doing now. That all has contributed to less friction with consumers, bringing travel agents back to the fold, so to speak.

是的，詹姆斯，看起來會好很多。如果你回顧一下從 6 月初開始發生的所有重大變化，當時美國政府不再要求人們進行測試才能返回美國。那是一個巨大的。僅僅 4 或 5 個月前，我想我們都想把 COVID 遠遠拋在腦後，以至於我們忘記了最近發生的一些重要里程碑。然後，當然，CDC 放棄了他們的協議並允許我們做我們現在正在做的事情。這一切都有助於減少與消費者的摩擦，可以說讓旅行社重新回歸。

And so that's why I'm so excited about this upcoming Wave period because it doesn't have all the burdens that the last 2 or 3 had. But specifically to your question about Q3 pricing and Ukraine, Look, if you had asked me what is the single city in the world, port in the world that you cannot live without. I'd tell you it's St. Petersburg, and we lost it. Very, very high yields, incredible shore excursion sales. So onboard revenue was just higher than any other itineraries that I can think of, relatively long season. You can get to St. Pete in the Baltic in mid-May and you can leave in mid-September. So it's a real blow. It's a real blow.

這就是為什麼我對即將到來的 Wave 時期如此興奮的原因，因為它沒有過去 2 或 3 年的所有負擔。但具體到你關於第三季度定價和烏克蘭的問題，看，如果你問我世界上唯一一個你不能沒有的城市，世界上的港口是什麼。我會告訴你那是聖彼得堡，我們把它弄丟了。非常非常高的產量，令人難以置信的岸上游覽銷售。因此，機上收入僅高於我能想到的任何其他行程，相對較長的季節。您可以在五月中旬到達波羅的海的聖皮特，您可以在九月中旬離開。所以這是一個真正的打擊。這是一個真正的打擊。

And so by -- we kept most of the ships there, although one vessel came out of the Baltic, and we sent it to the Caribbean, which is about as extreme from one to the other that you can think of. So it did affect load factors and no question, it affected pricing. And the impact on EBITDA has to be in the tens of millions of dollars.

因此，我們將大部分船隻保留在那裡，儘管一艘船來自波羅的海，我們將它送到了加勒比海，這是你能想到的從一個到另一個的極端情況。所以它確實影響了負載因素，毫無疑問，它影響了定價。對 EBITDA 的影響必須達到數千萬美元。

Our next question is with Paul Golding with Macquarie Capital.

我們的下一個問題是麥格理資本的 Paul Golding。

I wanted to ask a bit of a follow-on question with Europe. Given the protracted geopolitical issues, I'm looking at the deployment mix for '23. It looks like Europe is up in terms of plan for '23 deployment mix versus '19. So I just wanted to get a sense of the demand picture for presumably the North American cruiser. Is that still strong for Europe despite the geopolitics. And is that a tailwind that we should see also given the 85% North American sourcing comment from prior?

我想問一個與歐洲有關的後續問題。鑑於長期存在的地緣政治問題，我正在研究 23 年的部署組合。看起來歐洲在 '23 部署組合的計劃與 '19 相比有所上升。所以我只是想了解大概北美巡洋艦的需求情況。儘管存在地緣政治問題，這對歐洲來說仍然很強勁嗎？考慮到之前 85% 的北美採購評論，我們是否也應該看到這種順風？

Yes, I think it is a tailwind for several reasons. One, it was until midsummer that Americans were allowed back into the U.S. unless they had to test. And so this revenge travel and pent-up demand that we've been talking about for months is really alive and well for Americans going to Europe. And we want Americans going to Europe because they do sell the -- buy the highest cabin categories, book early. And also because of the strength of the dollar. I mean, going to Europe now, even though you do pay -- Americans do pay in dollars for our cruises here, they're going to spend a lot more money and enjoy themselves a lot more once they get to Europe.

是的，我認為這是順風有幾個原因。一，直到仲夏，美國人才被允許返回美國，除非他們必須進行測試。因此，我們幾個月來一直在談論的這種報復性旅行和被壓抑的需求對於前往歐洲的美國人來說確實存在並且很好。我們希望美國人去歐洲，因為他們確實出售——購買最高艙位類別，儘早預訂。也因為美元的強勢。我的意思是，現在去歐洲，即使你付錢——美國人確實用美元支付我們在這裡的遊輪，一旦他們到了歐洲，他們會花更多的錢，享受更多的樂趣。

So we do believe that Europe is poised for an incredible 2023 season. That's why we increased our capacity there by 6 percentage points of occupancy at the expense of the Caribbean. And I'll take that trade all day long because the yields both on ticket and onboard revenue are so dramatically better for European cruises that we'll take that trade.

因此，我們確實相信歐洲已經準備好迎接令人難以置信的 2023 賽季。這就是為什麼我們以犧牲加勒比海地區為代價將那裡的容量增加了 6 個百分點。而且我會整天進行這種交易，因為對於歐洲遊輪而言，機票和船上收入的收益都非常好，我們將進行這種交易。

And then maybe staying on the topic of Eastern Europe. I was wondering if there's been any change to the positive side in terms of cost with respect to your onboard labor costs due to the issues in Europe? Are you seeing any benefits there? And maybe more structurally short side, even though I know it's a smaller piece. Any change in the structural labor cost picture there and in general.

然後也許會繼續討論東歐的話題。我想知道由於歐洲的問題，您的船上勞動力成本在成本方面是否有任何積極的變化？你看到那裡有什麼好處嗎？也許在結構上更短邊，即使我知道它是一個較小的部分。那里和總體上的結構性勞動力成本情況的任何變化。

No change at all. The vast majority of our onboard crew come from Asia, not from Eastern Europe. Things have changed. 20 years ago, it was Western Europeans, became Eastern Europeans. Now it's primarily Asians. So no positive [question] whatsoever.

完全沒有變化。我們絕大多數的船上船員來自亞洲，而不是東歐。事情變了。 20年前，還是西歐人，變成了東歐人。現在主要是亞洲人。所以沒有任何積極的[問題]。

We have an operator question for one more -- time for one more question, please.

我們還有一個操作員問題，請再問一個問題。

Our next question is from Ivan Feinseth with Tigress.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tigress 的 Ivan Feinseth。

Congratulations on another great quarter and the ongoing progress.

祝賀另一個偉大的季度和持續的進展。

Thank you, Ivan.

謝謝你，伊万。

The big gain in onboard spending. What are the key drivers of that? What are you seeing being most popular that cruisers are spending on?

船上支出的巨大收益。這其中的關鍵驅動因素是什麼？您認為巡洋艦在哪些方面最受歡迎？

We're seeing it in experiences. So our casino is doing really, really well. We're going to give Vegas a run for their money. People are enjoying the destinations. We have industry-leading itineraries. So our [show] excursion business is up. Our cuisine is second to none, and people are enjoying cuisines. But even our spa, our spa is doing very, very well. And so I'm happy for the folks over at One World Spa.

我們在經驗中看到了這一點。所以我們的賭場做得非常非常好。我們將與維加斯爭奪他們的錢。人們正在享受目的地。我們擁有行業領先的行程。因此，我們的 [show] 遊覽業務開始了。我們的美食是首屈一指的，人們正在享受美食。但即使是我們的水療中心，我們的水療中心也做得非常非常好。所以我為 One World Spa 的人們感到高興。

And then Mark had commented a couple of times about he's seeing slight moderation in commodity, food commodity prices. Are you still seeing those trends? Or what's your outlook there?

然後馬克多次評論說他看到商品和食品價格略有放緩。你還在看那些趨勢嗎？或者你在那裡的前景如何？

Yes, Ivan. We continue to see that. Certain categories are trending down and they're starting to get into their historical averages. We're not -- certainly not where we would like them to be or need them to be, but we are seeing continued momentum in there.

是的，伊万。我們繼續看到這一點。某些類別呈下降趨勢，並且開始進入歷史平均水平。我們不是——當然不是我們希望他們成為或需要他們成為的地方，但我們看到了持續的勢頭。

But I wish it was quicker, but we're at the mercy of the rest of the world. But again, we're seeing positive momentum on that front.

但我希望它更快，但我們受世界其他地方的擺佈。但同樣，我們在這方面看到了積極的勢頭。

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. We ran a little bit over time, but those are all great questions, and we were happy to have the opportunity to answer them. As always, our team will be standing by to answer any of your questions. Have a great day, everyone.

謝謝接線員，謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。隨著時間的推移，我們跑了一點點，但這些都是很好的問題，我們很高興有機會回答這些問題。與往常一樣，我們的團隊將隨時準備回答您的任何問題。祝大家有個美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。