美光科技 (MU) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon.

    下午好。

  • My name is Latif, and I will be your conference facilitator today.

    我叫 Latif,今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。

  • At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Micron Technology's Fourth Quarter 2018 Financial Release Conference Call.

    在此,歡迎大家參加美光科技 2018 年第四季度財務發布電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Farhan Ahmad, Head of Investor Relations.

    現在,我很高興將發言權交給您的主持人,投資者關係主管 Farhan Ahmad。

  • You may begin your conference.

    你可以開始你的會議了。

  • Farhan Ahmad - Senior Director of IR

    Farhan Ahmad - Senior Director of IR

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Welcome to Micron Technology's Fourth Fiscal Quarter 2018 Financial Conference Call.

    歡迎參加美光科技 2018 財年第四季度財務電話會議。

  • On the call with me today are Sanjay Mehrotra, President and CEO; and Dave Zinsner, Chief Financial Officer.

    今天與我通話的是總裁兼首席執行官 Sanjay Mehrotra;和首席財務官 Dave Zinsner。

  • Today's call will be approximately 60 minutes in length.

    今天的通話時間約為 60 分鐘。

  • This call, including audio and slides, is also being webcast from our Investor Relations website at investors.micron.com.

    此次電話會議(包括音頻和幻燈片)也將通過我們的投資者關係網站investors.micron.com 進行網絡直播。

  • In addition, our website contains the earnings press release filed a short while ago.

    此外,我們的網站包含不久前提交的收益新聞稿。

  • Today's discussion of financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified.

    除非另有說明,否則今天對財務結果的討論將在非公認會計原則財務基礎上進行。

  • A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures may be found on our website, along with the convertible debt and capped call dilution table.

    可以在我們的網站上找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬,以及可轉換債務和上限贖回稀釋表。

  • As a reminder, the prepared remarks from this call and webcast replay will be available on our website later today.

    提醒一下,今天晚些時候將在我們的網站上提供本次電話會議和網絡直播重播的準備發言。

  • We encourage you to monitor our website at micron.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the company, including information on the various financial conferences that we will be attending.

    我們鼓勵您在整個季度監控我們的網站 micron.com,以獲取有關公司的最新信息,包括我們將參加的各種財務會議的信息。

  • You can also follow us on Twitter, @MicronTech.

    您也可以在 Twitter 上關注我們,@MicronTech。

  • As a reminder, the matters we will be discussing today include forward-looking statements.

    提醒一下,我們今天將討論的事項包括前瞻性陳述。

  • These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from statements made today.

    這些前瞻性陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與今天的陳述存在重大差異。

  • We refer you to documents we file with the SEC, specifically our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q, for a discussion of risks that may affect our future results.

    我們向您推薦我們向 SEC 提交的文件,特別是我們最近的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格,以討論可能影響我們未來結果的風險。

  • Although we believe the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements.

    儘管我們認為前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的,但我們不能保證未來的結果、活動水平、業績或成就。

  • We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements after today's date to conform these statements to actual results.

    我們沒有義務在今天之後更新任何前瞻性陳述以使這些陳述符合實際結果。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Sanjay.

    我現在將把電話轉給 Sanjay。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Thank you, Farhan.

    謝謝你,法爾漢。

  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    大家下午好。

  • Our fourth quarter results contributed to a year of unprecedented success for the company.

    我們第四季度的業績為公司帶來了前所未有的成功。

  • With record profitability and revenue over $30 billion, Micron ended fiscal 2018 as the second largest semiconductor company in the U.S. The new Micron is undergoing a fundamental transformation, driven by our 34,000-plus employees around the world, whom I would like to thank for their intense focus on our key priorities.

    憑藉創紀錄的盈利能力和超過 300 億美元的收入,美光在 2018 財年結束時成為美國第二大半導體公司。在全球 34,000 多名員工的推動下,新的美光正在經歷一場根本性的轉變,我要感謝他們的付出高度關注我們的關鍵優先事項。

  • Our markets are propelled by diversified secular growth trends, our industry is more rational and the Micron team is executing well against the company's strategy.

    我們的市場受到多元化長期增長趨勢的推動,我們的行業更加理性,美光團隊的執行力與公司的戰略相悖。

  • Over the last 12 months, we have sharpened our focus on improving our cost structure and on increasing the mix of high-value solutions in our portfolio, all of which position us well for the future.

    在過去的 12 個月裡,我們更加專注於改善成本結構,並在我們的產品組合中增加高價值解決方案的組合,所有這些都為我們的未來奠定了良好的基礎。

  • Our technology road map and manufacturing execution is driving strong cost reductions for the company.

    我們的技術路線圖和製造執行正在推動公司大幅降低成本。

  • Over the last year, we have increased production DRAM bits per wafer at a higher rate than the industry, reducing the cost gap with competitors.

    去年,我們以高於行業的速度增加了每片晶圓的 DRAM 比特數,從而縮小了與競爭對手的成本差距。

  • We are on track to achieve total bit output crossover on 1X nanometer DRAM in the first quarter of fiscal 2019 and have already achieved bit shipment crossover for 1X nanometer in the client and graphics markets in the fourth quarter.

    我們有望在 2019 財年第一季度實現 1X 納米 DRAM 的總比特輸出交叉,並已在第四季度在客戶端和圖形市場實現 1X 納米的比特出貨量交叉。

  • We expect 1Y nanometer sales to commence before the end of calendar 2019, with meaningful production increases beginning in the fiscal third quarter as we recently announced new cleanroom space comes online at our Hiroshima facility.

    我們預計 1Y 納米的銷售將在 2019 年日曆結束之前開始,隨著我們最近宣佈在我們的廣島工廠上線新的潔淨室空間,從第三財季開始顯著增加產量。

  • We are also making good progress on our 1Z nanometer technology development.

    我們的 1Z 納米技術開發也取得了良好的進展。

  • In NAND, cost reductions and mix improvements have helped us deliver sequential gross margin expansion even as pricing declined in the industry.

    在 NAND 中,成本降低和組合改進幫助我們實現了連續的毛利率增長,即使行業價格下降。

  • At this time last year, our bit output share was meaningfully below our wafer market share.

    去年這個時候,我們的比特產量份額明顯低於我們的晶圓市場份額。

  • Over the last 12 months, through the strong execution of our 64-layer ramp and a higher mix of TLC, we have reversed this trend and now have our bit share ahead of our wafer share.

    在過去的 12 個月裡,通過我們 64 層坡道的強勁執行和更高的 TLC 組合,我們扭轉了這一趨勢,現在我們的比特份額領先於我們的晶圓份額。

  • We remain on track to move 96-layer NAND into production this calendar year and will continue to ramp it next year, which should provide us with solid cost reductions in fiscal 2019.

    我們仍有望在本日曆年將 96 層 NAND 投入生產,並將在明年繼續進行量產,這將為我們在 2019 財年提供可靠的成本降低。

  • We have already commercialized CMOS Under the Array, QLC and array stacking on 3D NAND, while most competitors still have these challenges ahead of them.

    我們已經將 CMOS Under the Array、QLC 和 3D NAND 上的陣列堆疊商業化,而大多數競爭對手仍然面臨這些挑戰。

  • Our technology leadership positions us well for the year ahead, and we are pleased with the headway we are making on our fourth-generation 3D NAND technology, which uses a replacement gate architecture.

    我們的技術領先地位使我們在未來一年保持良好狀態,我們對我們在第四代 3D NAND 技術上取得的進展感到高興,該技術使用替代門架構。

  • We also made excellent progress increasing our mix of higher value-added solutions, delivering record revenue in our SSD and multichip package products this quarter.

    我們還在增加高附加值解決方案組合方面取得了顯著進展,本季度我們的 SSD 和多芯片封裝產品實現了創紀錄的收入。

  • Our enterprise and cloud SSD quarterly revenues more than doubled year-over-year as we strengthened our position in SATA SSDs.

    隨著我們加強了在 SATA SSD 領域的地位,我們的企業和雲 SSD 季度收入同比增長了一倍以上。

  • A third-party research firm recently recognized Micron as the #1 market share leader in enterprise SATA.

    一家第三方研究公司最近將美光評為企業 SATA 市場份額第一的領導者。

  • We achieved well over $2 billion in annual SSD revenue in fiscal 2018.

    我們在 2018 財年實現了超過 20 億美元的年度 SSD 收入。

  • Our first-generation NVMe SSD is in the final stages of product development.

    我們的第一代 NVMe SSD 處於產品開發的最後階段。

  • Looking ahead, we are focused on introducing new NVMe SSDs over the course of the next several quarters.

    展望未來,我們將專注於在未來幾個季度推出新的 NVMe SSD。

  • Consumer and client NVMe SSDs will come first, and then late in calendar 2019, cloud and enterprise NVMe drives.

    消費者和客戶端 NVMe SSD 將首先出現,然後在 2019 年晚些時候出現,雲和企業 NVMe 驅動器。

  • As the market rapidly shifts to NVMe, 2019 will be a year of transition for us, following solid SSD share gains in 2018, and we expect to start growing SSD share again in 2020 with a fuller product portfolio.

    隨著市場迅速轉向 NVMe,2019 年對我們來說將是過渡的一年,繼 2018 年 SSD 份額穩步增長之後,我們預計 2020 年將通過更全面的產品組合再次開始增長 SSD 份額。

  • We also look forward to leveraging our market advantage with QLC SSDs in 2019 and beyond.

    我們也期待在 2019 年及以後利用我們的 QLC SSD 市場優勢。

  • Fiscal Q4 saw a continuation of our stellar performance in managed NAND growth, with MCP revenues growing 21% sequentially.

    第四季度,我們在託管 NAND 增長方面的出色表現繼續保持,MCP 收入環比增長 21%。

  • MCPs are used in the vast majority of smartphones, and we have robust demand from customers for these products.

    絕大多數智能手機都使用 MCP,我們的客戶對這些產品有著強勁的需求。

  • We are focused on growing MCP revenues and are introducing new differentiated products to enhance our portfolio.

    我們專注於增加 MCP 收入,並正在推出新的差異化產品以增強我們的產品組合。

  • In the fourth quarter, our new 128-gigabyte NAND plus 4-gigabyte DRAM MCP ramped revenue faster than any other managed NAND product in our history, demonstrating our strong execution as well as the market demand for high-capacity, high-value MCPs for flagship smartphones.

    在第四季度,我們新的 128 GB NAND 和 4 GB DRAM MCP 的收入增長速度超過了我們歷史上任何其他託管 NAND 產品,這表明我們強大的執行力以及市場對高容量、高價值 MCP 的需求旗艦智能手機。

  • We are pleased with our progress and believe we still have a lot of room to grow in this market over the coming year.

    我們對我們的進步感到滿意,並相信我們在來年在這個市場上仍有很大的增長空間。

  • Now turning to highlights by market.

    現在轉向市場亮點。

  • More than 1/3 of our total revenues in fiscal 2018 were from data center and graphics.

    我們 2018 財年總收入的 1/3 以上來自數據中心和圖形。

  • Our annual revenues in these markets have more than doubled year-over-year.

    我們在這些市場的年收入同比增長了一倍多。

  • We are confident about the long-term demand growth in this market as AI and big data analytics continue to create new value for end customers.

    隨著人工智能和大數據分析繼續為終端客戶創造新價值,我們對該市場的長期需求增長充滿信心。

  • Our collaboration with customers in these markets is deep, and we work closely with them to bring new technologies to market.

    我們與這些市場的客戶有著深入的合作,我們與他們密切合作,將新技術推向市場。

  • For example, in Q4, we started shipping a new custom persistent memory solution to a large hyperscale company.

    例如,在第四季度,我們開始向一家大型超大規模公司提供新的定制持久內存解決方案。

  • In graphics, NVIDIA chose us the lead GDDR6 partner for their GeForce RTX products, and we expect to see strong growth in our GDDR6 shipments in fiscal 2019.

    在圖形方面,NVIDIA 選擇我們作為其 GeForce RTX 產品的主要 GDDR6 合作夥伴,我們預計 2019 財年我們的 GDDR6 出貨量將強勁增長。

  • We are also collaborating with customers on 3D XPoint solutions and expect to start sampling products in late calendar 2019.

    我們還與客戶就 3D XPoint 解決方案展開合作,預計將於 2019 年晚些時候開始提供產品樣品。

  • Markets requiring our long life cycle products make up more than 15% of our revenues.

    需要我們長生命週期產品的市場占我們收入的 15% 以上。

  • We win in these markets on high-quality, deep partnerships, committed long-term support and the breadth of our DRAM, NAND and NOR product portfolio.

    我們憑藉高質量、深入的合作夥伴關係、承諾的長期支持以及我們廣泛的 DRAM、NAND 和 NOR 產品組合在這些市場中獲勝。

  • These businesses in our portfolio typically show higher stability in revenues, profitability and cash flows and are supported by secular growth drivers such as autonomous driving, networking, IoT and industrial automation.

    我們投資組合中的這些業務通常在收入、盈利能力和現金流方面表現出更高的穩定性,並得到自動駕駛、網絡、物聯網和工業自動化等長期增長動力的支持。

  • Our automotive business had record revenues in the quarter.

    我們的汽車業務在本季度取得了創紀錄的收入。

  • We have a strong design win pipeline for automotive products, with a lifetime value of several billion dollars.

    我們擁有強大的汽車產品設計贏得渠道,生命週期價值達數十億美元。

  • To support our long-term growth in these markets, we recently announced a multiyear $3 billion investment to expand our fab in Manassas, Virginia over the next decade.

    為了支持我們在這些市場的長期增長,我們最近宣布了一項多年期 30 億美元的投資,以在未來十年內擴大我們在弗吉尼亞州馬納薩斯的工廠。

  • This site will be a world-class center of excellence for developing and manufacturing these long life cycle solutions.

    該站點將成為開發和製造這些長生命週期解決方案的世界級卓越中心。

  • Turning to mobile.

    轉向手機。

  • The market continues to grow, driven by content increases for DRAM and NAND across all frontiers.

    在所有前沿的 DRAM 和 NAND 內容增加的推動下,市場繼續增長。

  • We shipped our first high-performance UFS-managed NAND products in the fourth quarter and expect this to be a growth area for us in fiscal 2019.

    我們在第四季度交付了我們的第一款高性能 UFS 管理的 NAND 產品,並預計這將成為我們在 2019 財年的增長領域。

  • We delivered record results in mobile, with revenues up 8% sequentially, driven by strength in NAND as we grew NAND bits 80% quarter-on-quarter.

    我們在移動領域取得了創紀錄的業績,收入環比增長 8%,這得益於 NAND 的實力,因為我們的 NAND 比特環比增長了 80%。

  • DRAM and NAND content will continue to grow in mobile devices in fiscal 2019, driven by customer preferences and the need to support new camera and video features utilizing machine learning.

    受客戶偏好以及利用機器學習支持新相機和視頻功能的需求的推動,2019 財年移動設備中的 DRAM 和 NAND 內容將繼續增長。

  • Looking at the industry broadly, calendar 2018 has been a phenomenal year so far, with a total DRAM and NAND TAM on track to reach record highs and total industry revenues forecasted to grow 29% year-over-year to $168 billion.

    縱觀整個行業,到目前為止,2018 年是非凡的一年,DRAM 和 NAND TAM 的總量有望創下歷史新高,預計行業總收入將同比增長 29% 至 1680 億美元。

  • As we discussed at our Investor Day event, we expect industry cyclicality to be more dampened than in the past as industry supply growth from nodes transitions slows structurally and supply growth requires higher levels of CapEx.

    正如我們在投資者日活動中所討論的那樣,我們預計行業周期性將比過去更受抑制,因為節點轉型帶來的行業供應增長在結構上放緩並且供應增長需要更高水平的資本支出。

  • In addition, we continue to see robust diversified demand drivers and are confident in the long-term outlook for our business.

    此外,我們繼續看到強勁的多元化需求驅動因素,並對我們業務的長期前景充滿信心。

  • Turning to bit growth.

    轉向位增長。

  • In DRAM, we see the calendar 2018 industry bit output growth tracking slightly above 20%, with Micron growing in line with the industry.

    在 DRAM 方面,我們看到日曆 2018 年行業比特產量增長略高於 20%,美光與行業同步增長。

  • NAND industry bit output growth is tracking close to 45% in calendar 2018, and we expect to grow roughly in line with the industry.

    2018 年 NAND 行業比特產量增長接近 45%,我們預計增長與行業大致一致。

  • Looking ahead to calendar 2019, we plan to grow DRAM bits in line with estimated industry growth of approximately 20% and plan to grow NAND bits somewhat above our expectation of industry growth of 35% to 40%.

    展望 2019 年,我們計劃將 DRAM 位的增長與估計的行業增長約 20% 一致,併計劃使 NAND 位的增長略高於我們對行業增長 35% 至 40% 的預期。

  • In fiscal 2019, we expect that DRAM profitability will remain strong as the market continues to benefit from long-term structural growth drivers and from structurally slowing supply growth.

    在 2019 財年,我們預計 DRAM 盈利能力將保持強勁,因為市場繼續受益於長期結構性增長驅動力和結構性供應增長放緩。

  • Turning to NAND.

    轉向NAND。

  • We have seen an acceleration in supply growth in calendar 2018, driven by the ramp of highly efficient 64-layer 3D NAND across the industry.

    在整個行業高效 64 層 3D NAND 的推動下,我們看到 2018 年供應增長加速。

  • Looking ahead, we expect a moderation in supply growth beginning in the first half of calendar 2019 as the industry transitions to more challenging 96-layer designs, which provide less benefit node over node.

    展望未來,隨著行業向更具挑戰性的 96 層設計過渡,我們預計供應增長將從 2019 年上半年開始放緩,這提供了更少的節點收益。

  • We also expect higher demand due to elasticity, resulting in higher SSD adoption and increasing average capacities across multiple end markets.

    我們還預計,由於彈性,需求會增加,從而提高 SSD 的採用率並提高多個終端市場的平均容量。

  • In our fiscal first quarter, we see some impact to our client compute customers due to a shortage of CPUs.

    在我們的第一財季,由於 CPU 短缺,我們看到對我們的客戶計算客戶的一些影響。

  • In addition, there is some limited inventory adjustment underway at a few customers, but their end customer demand remains solid.

    此外,少數客戶正在進行有限的庫存調整,但他們的最終客戶需求仍然穩定。

  • Turning to CapEx.

    轉向資本支出。

  • Dave will provide more details, but I want to emphasize that our fiscal 2019 CapEx plans are consistent with our strategy to focus on technology transitions while maintaining existing wafer capacity.

    Dave 將提供更多細節,但我想強調的是,我們 2019 財年的資本支出計劃與我們在保持現有晶圓產能的同時專注於技術轉型的戰略是一致的。

  • As we have highlighted previously, future technology transitions in NAND and DRAM require substantially more cleanroom space than prior nodes.

    正如我們之前強調的那樣,NAND 和 DRAM 的未來技術轉型需要比以前的節點更多的潔淨室空間。

  • As a result, our fiscal 2019 CapEx related to manufacturing facility construction and facility upgrades is increasing by nearly $2 billion year-over-year, primarily due to our previously announced NAND and DRAM cleanroom expansions.

    因此,我們與製造設施建設和設施升級相關的 2019 財年資本支出同比增長近 20 億美元,這主要是由於我們之前宣布的 NAND 和 DRAM 潔淨室擴建。

  • This investment will provide us the flexibility to better manage our manufacturing operations and drive the manufacturing ramp of new technologies in a timely manner.

    這項投資將使我們能夠靈活地更好地管理我們的製造業務並及時推動新技術的製造。

  • As I reflect on the tremendous progress we have made improving our competitive position this year and the amazing opportunities that drive our industry, I'm very excited about Micron's future.

    當我回顧我們今年在提高競爭地位方面取得的巨大進步以及推動我們行業發展的驚人機遇時,我對美光的未來感到非常興奮。

  • Against this backdrop, we certainly view our stock as being undervalued at current prices and are aggressively implementing our stock buyback program.

    在這種背景下,我們當然認為我們的股票以當前價格被低估,並正在積極實施我們的股票回購計劃。

  • We will continue to maintain a healthy balance sheet and use strong free cash flow to support over $10 billion buyback and assess opportunities to accelerate the time line for its completion.

    我們將繼續保持健康的資產負債表,並利用強勁的自由現金流支持超過 100 億美元的回購,並評估加快完成時間線的機會。

  • With that, I will pass this over to Dave.

    有了這個,我會把它交給戴夫。

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Sanjay, and good afternoon, everyone.

    謝謝你,桑傑,大家下午好。

  • Micron continues to perform exceptionally well and delivered strong financial results in the fourth quarter.

    美光繼續表現出色,並在第四季度取得了強勁的財務業績。

  • We set new records for revenue, gross margin, free cash flow and earnings per share.

    我們創造了收入、毛利率、自由現金流和每股收益的新記錄。

  • In addition, we continue to strengthen our financial foundation, achieving our highest-ever net cash position.

    此外,我們繼續加強我們的財務基礎,實現我們有史以來最高的淨現金頭寸。

  • Total fiscal fourth quarter revenue was $8.4 billion, up 8% from fiscal third quarter and 38% from the prior year.

    第四財季總收入為 84 億美元,比第三財季增長 8%,比去年同期增長 38%。

  • For fiscal 2018, total revenue was $30.4 billion, up 50% from fiscal 2017.

    2018 財年,總收入為 304 億美元,比 2017 財年增長 50%。

  • Gross margins for the quarter expanded to a record 61%, up approximately 50 basis points from the prior quarter and up from 51% in the prior year.

    本季度毛利率擴大至創紀錄的 61%,比上一季度增長約 50 個基點,高於上一年的 51%。

  • In the fiscal fourth quarter, we saw the benefit of strong execution on technology transitions for both DRAM and NAND.

    在第四財季,我們看到了強勁執行 DRAM 和 NAND 技術轉型的好處。

  • This strong execution resulted in a significant sequential cost decline, which drove expanded gross margins in both DRAM and NAND.

    這種強勁的執行導致成本連續大幅下降,從而推動了 DRAM 和 NAND 的毛利率擴大。

  • For fiscal 2018, gross margins were 59%, up from 43% in fiscal 2017.

    2018財年的毛利率為59%,高於2017財年的43%。

  • Operating expenses came in at $740 million, approximately flat from fiscal third quarter 2018.

    運營費用為 7.4 億美元,與 2018 財年第三季度大致持平。

  • As previously communicated, moving forward, we expect to increase our investments in R&D for fiscal 2019 as we add resources to expand our portfolio of new high-value solutions and phase out partner contributions for technology development.

    正如之前所傳達的,展望未來,隨著我們增加資源以擴大我們新的高價值解決方案組合併逐步淘汰合作夥伴對技術開發的貢獻,我們預計將在 2019 財年增加對研發的投資。

  • Our record revenue and gross margin performance drove strong profitability in the fiscal fourth quarter, and operating income grew to $4.4 billion, representing 53% of revenue.

    我們創紀錄的收入和毛利率表現推動了第四財季的強勁盈利能力,營業收入增長至 44 億美元,佔收入的 53%。

  • This compares with operating margins of 52% in fiscal third quarter and 41% in the year-ago period.

    相比之下,第三財季的營業利潤率為 52%,去年同期為 41%。

  • Now turning to our revenue trends by business unit.

    現在轉向按業務部門劃分的收入趨勢。

  • We achieved record revenue for the compute and networking business unit of $4.4 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter, up 9% from the prior quarter and 53% year-over-year.

    我們在第四財季的計算和網絡業務部門實現了創紀錄的收入 44 億美元,比上一季度增長 9%,同比增長 53%。

  • Growth trends were strong in cloud and graphics, which almost doubled year-on-year.

    雲和圖形的增長趨勢強勁,同比幾乎翻了一番。

  • Fiscal fourth quarter operating income in CNBU was up 11% sequentially to $2.9 billion or 67% of revenue.

    CNBU 第四財季營業收入環比增長 11%,達到 29 億美元,佔收入的 67%。

  • Revenues for the Mobile Business Unit increased to a record $1.9 billion, up 8% quarter-over-quarter and 60% year-over-year.

    移動業務部門的收入增至創紀錄的 19 億美元,環比增長 8%,同比增長 60%。

  • Sequential growth was primarily led by multichip packages and discrete/managed NAND.

    連續增長主要由多芯片封裝和分立/託管 NAND 引領。

  • Fiscal fourth quarter operating income increased 14% quarter-over-quarter to a record $979 million or 52% of revenue.

    第四財季營業收入環比增長 14%,達到創紀錄的 9.79 億美元,佔收入的 52%。

  • The Embedded Business Unit continues to deliver solid results, with record revenue of $923 million, up 3% versus fiscal third quarter and up 12% year-over-year.

    嵌入式業務部門繼續取得可觀的業績,收入達到創紀錄的 9.23 億美元,與第三財季相比增長 3%,同比增長 12%。

  • Sequential growth was driven by the automotive and industrial markets.

    汽車和工業市場推動了連續增長。

  • Fiscal fourth quarter operating income in EBU was $382 million or 41% of revenue.

    EBU 第四財季營業收入為 3.82 億美元,佔收入的 41%。

  • And finally, turning to the Storage Business Unit.

    最後,轉向存儲業務部門。

  • Fourth quarter revenue was $1.2 billion, up 9% sequentially and down 4% year-over-year.

    第四季度收入為 12 億美元,環比增長 9%,同比下降 4%。

  • We set a record for overall SSD revenues, driven by our continued success in the SATA SSD market.

    得益於我們在 SATA SSD 市場的持續成功,我們創下了 SSD 總收入的記錄。

  • Fiscal fourth quarter operating income in SBU was $157 million or 13% of revenue, which included the impact from the underutilization charges related to 3D XPoint.

    SBU 的第四財季營業收入為 1.57 億美元,佔收入的 13%,其中包括與 3D XPoint 相關的未充分利用費用的影響。

  • And now, moving to performance by product line.

    現在,轉向產品線的性能。

  • DRAM represented 70% of total company revenue in fiscal fourth quarter.

    DRAM 在第四財季占公司總收入的 70%。

  • DRAM revenue was up 7% from the prior quarter and 47% year-over-year as Micron executed well in a robust market environment.

    由於美光在強勁的市場環境中表現良好,DRAM 收入較上一季度增長 7%,同比增長 47%。

  • On a blended basis, ASPs were flat to the prior quarter, while shipment quantities were up mid to upper single digits percent.

    在混合基礎上,平均售價與上一季度持平,而出貨量則上升了中上個位數百分比。

  • Gross margins for DRAM were 71%, up from 69% in the prior quarter as cost benefited from the ramp of our 1X nanometer technology.

    DRAM 的毛利率為 71%,高於上一季度的 69%,因為成本受益於我們 1X 納米技術的提升。

  • Trade NAND revenue represented 26% of total company revenue in fiscal fourth quarter.

    第四財季貿易 NAND 收入占公司總收入的 26%。

  • Trade NAND revenue was up 15% quarter-over-quarter and 21% year-over-year, driven by strong sequential growth in managed NAND products.

    受託管 NAND 產品連續強勁增長的推動,貿易 NAND 收入環比增長 15%,同比增長 21%。

  • Our overall NAND ASP decreased in the mid-teens percentage range, and shipment quantities increased in the mid-30 percentage range compared to the prior quarter.

    與上一季度相比,我們的整體 NAND ASP 下降了 10% 左右,出貨量增加了 30% 左右。

  • Trade NAND gross margins were 48%, up 50 basis points from the prior quarter and up 720 basis points from the year-ago quarter, driven by robust cost reductions and product mix improvements.

    貿易 NAND 毛利率為 48%,比上一季度增長 50 個基點,比去年同期增長 720 個基點,這得益於成本大幅降低和產品組合改進。

  • Our solid execution and healthy industry environment led to a record non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.53, up 12% from the prior quarter and 75% from the prior year.

    我們穩健的執行力和健康的行業環境使非公認會計準則每股收益達到創紀錄的 3.53 美元,比上一季度增長 12%,比上一年增長 75%。

  • For the full fiscal 2018, we achieved net income of $14.7 billion or $11.95 per share compared with $5.6 billion or $4.96 per share for fiscal 2017.

    在整個 2018 財年,我們實現了 147 億美元或每股 11.95 美元的淨收入,而 2017 財年為 56 億美元或每股 4.96 美元。

  • In the fiscal fourth quarter, we generated a record $5.2 billion in cash from operations, representing 61% of revenue.

    在第四財季,我們從運營中產生了創紀錄的 52 億美元現金,佔收入的 61%。

  • Micron has historically shown strong cash flows from operations, even in our most difficult years, and our current cash flow levels are now structurally higher as we have made significant improvements on our underlying cost competitiveness and enhanced our product mix.

    美光歷來顯示出強勁的運營現金流,即使在我們最困難的年份也是如此,而且我們目前的現金流水平現在在結構上更高,因為我們已經顯著提高了我們的基本成本競爭力並增強了我們的產品組合。

  • Capital spending net of third-party contributions was $2.1 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter and $8.2 billion for the fiscal year.

    第四財季扣除第三方貢獻的資本支出為 21 億美元,本財年為 82 億美元。

  • While our annual capital spending was well below our CapEx model of low 30s as a percent of revenue in fiscal 2018, we do plan to increase our CapEx as a percent of revenue in fiscal 2019.

    雖然我們的年度資本支出遠低於我們在 2018 財年佔收入百分比的低 30 年代資本支出模型,但我們確實計劃在 2019 財年增加資本支出佔收入的百分比。

  • We currently expect our fiscal 2019 CapEx, net of partner contributions, to be in the range of $10.5 billion, plus or minus 5%.

    我們目前預計我們的 2019 財年資本支出(扣除合作夥伴貢獻)將在 105 億美元的範圍內,上下浮動 5%。

  • Our investments will continue to be focused on technology transitions for DRAM and NAND while maintaining flat wafer capacity.

    我們的投資將繼續專注於 DRAM 和 NAND 的技術轉型,同時保持平坦的晶圓產能。

  • We expect that about 25% of our capital spending will be associated with facilities expansions and facilities upgrades needed for successful technology transitions.

    我們預計,我們約 25% 的資本支出將與成功技術轉型所需的設施擴建和設施升級有關。

  • These expansion and upgrade projects are underway, and as a result, CapEx will be more weighted towards the first half of the fiscal year.

    這些擴展和升級項目正在進行中,因此,資本支出將更加側重於本財年上半年。

  • Our strategy is to be flexible and disciplined regarding our CapEx, and we will be responsive to market conditions.

    我們的策略是對我們的資本支出保持靈活和自律,我們將對市場狀況做出反應。

  • As an example, we cut back our fab equipment CapEx for NAND in fiscal 2019 compared to fiscal 2018 levels.

    例如,與 2018 財年的水平相比,我們在 2019 財年削減了 NAND 的晶圓廠設備資本支出。

  • In the fourth quarter, our free cash flow was $3.1 billion, up $900 million from the third quarter and up nearly $1.4 billion from the prior year period.

    第四季度,我們的自由現金流為 31 億美元,比第三季度增加 9 億美元,比去年同期增加近 14 億美元。

  • Free cash flow for the full fiscal year was $9.2 billion compared to $3.3 billion last fiscal year.

    整個財年的自由現金流為 92 億美元,而上一財年為 33 億美元。

  • We ended the fiscal year in a record net cash position of $2.7 billion, with approximately $7.4 billion in cash, marketable investments and restricted cash, and $4.6 billion in debt.

    我們在本財年結束時的淨現金頭寸達到創紀錄的 27 億美元,其中約有 74 億美元的現金、可出售的投資和受限現金,以及 46 億美元的債務。

  • During the fiscal year, we used $9.4 billion for the repurchase or prepayment of debt and redemptions of converts and reduced our debt position by $6.5 billion.

    在本財年,我們使用了 94 億美元用於回購或提前償還債務以及贖迴轉換者,並將我們的債務頭寸減少了 65 億美元。

  • In the fiscal fourth quarter alone, we reduced our debt position by approximately $2.7 billion, including the repayment of $2 billion of Taiwan secured debt.

    僅在第四財季,我們就將債務頭寸減少了約 27 億美元,其中包括償還 20 億美元的台灣擔保債務。

  • Combining the debt and equity components, we spent about $1.3 billion for redeemed convertible notes during the fiscal fourth quarter.

    結合債務和股權部分,我們在第四財季花費了約 13 億美元用於贖回可轉換票據。

  • Our convert redemption in fiscal third and fourth quarter have lowered the share count in the first quarter by approximately 31 million or 2.5% from what it would have been had the converts not been redeemed.

    我們在第三財季和第四財季的轉換贖回使第一季度的股票數量比未贖迴轉換的股票數量減少了約 3100 萬股或 2.5%。

  • Prior to turning to our outlook, I wanted to provide some context for our fiscal first quarter guidance.

    在轉向我們的展望之前,我想為我們的第一財季指導提供一些背景信息。

  • As Sanjay indicated, our markets remain healthy and demand from our customers is strong, but we are seeing some impact of CPU shortages in the client compute market and limited inventory adjustments at select customers.

    正如 Sanjay 所說,我們的市場保持健康,客戶的需求強勁,但我們看到客戶端計算市場 CPU 短缺和特定客戶有限的庫存調整帶來了一些影響。

  • We expect gross margins to remain very healthy in the fiscal first quarter, although lower than fourth quarter levels, and our gross margins will also be impacted in the near term by the announced 10% tariff on $200 billion of imports from China, which will go into effect on September 24.

    我們預計第一財季的毛利率將保持非常健康,儘管低於第四季度的水平,而且我們的毛利率也將在短期內受到宣布對從中國進口的 2000 億美元商品徵收 10% 關稅的影響9月24日生效。

  • We are working to gradually mitigate most of the impact from these tariffs over the next 3 to 4 quarters.

    我們正在努力在未來 3 到 4 個季度逐步減輕這些關稅的大部分影響。

  • Our fiscal 2019 tax rate should increase to approximately 12% versus 2.8% in fiscal 2018, with the new U.S. corporate tax rules enacted this year.

    隨著今年新的美國公司稅規則的頒布,我們 2019 財年的稅率應從 2018 財年的 2.8% 增加到約 12%。

  • With the revenue, gross margin and tax factors in mind, our non-GAAP guidance for the first fiscal quarter is as follows: we expect revenue to be in the range of $7.9 billion to $8.3 billion; gross margins to be in the range of 57% to 60%; operating expenses are expected to be $750 million, plus or minus $25 million; and based on share count of approximately 1.2 billion fully diluted shares, we expect earnings per share to be $2.95, plus or minus $0.07.

    考慮到收入、毛利率和稅收因素,我們對第一財季的非公認會計準則指導如下:我們預計收入將在 79 億美元至 83 億美元之間;毛利率在 57% 至 60% 之間;運營費用預計為 7.5 億美元,上下浮動 2500 萬美元;根據大約 12 億股完全稀釋後的股票數量,我們預計每股收益為 2.95 美元,上下浮動 0.07 美元。

  • Now let me take a moment to provide an update on our share repurchase program.

    現在讓我花點時間介紹一下我們股票回購計劃的最新情況。

  • I'm pleased to report that our buyback has been in effect since the beginning of September.

    我很高興地報告,我們的回購自 9 月初開始生效。

  • And for the fiscal first quarter, we are committed to spend at least $1.5 billion in programmatic repurchases, with an additional amount allocated for opportunistic repurchases.

    在第一財季,我們承諾至少花費 15 億美元進行程序性回購,並為機會性回購分配額外金額。

  • Beyond the first fiscal quarter, we expect to be active buyers of our stock by repurchasing Micron shares regularly.

    在第一財季之後,我們希望通過定期回購美光股票成為我們股票的積極買家。

  • We are committed to deploying at least 50% of our ongoing free cash flow towards our $10 billion buyback program, and as Sanjay mentioned, we are assessing an accelerated rate of completion of this program.

    我們承諾將至少 50% 的持續自由現金流用於我們 100 億美元的回購計劃,正如桑傑所說,我們正在評估加快完成該計劃的速度。

  • The total buyback program of $10 billion represents approximately 19% of the current equity value.

    100 億美元的總回購計劃約佔當前股權價值的 19%。

  • Before I turn the call back over to Sanjay, I'd like to discuss an update to our disclosures.

    在我將電話轉回給桑傑之前,我想討論一下我們披露的更新。

  • As we typically do this time of year, we review the financial information we disclose to make sure that we are appropriately balancing the needs of investors to make an informed investment decision with a desire to keep confidential as much proprietary information as possible.

    正如我們通常每年這個時候所做的那樣,我們會審查我們披露的財務信息,以確保我們適當平衡投資者的需求,以做出明智的投資決策,並希望盡可能多地保密專有信息。

  • In doing so, we also review information disclosed by competitors.

    在此過程中,我們還會審查競爭對手披露的信息。

  • As a result, beginning in the fiscal first quarter, we will no longer be disclosing gross margins by our DRAM and NAND product categories.

    因此,從第一財季開始,我們將不再按 DRAM 和 NAND 產品類別披露毛利率。

  • We view this information as sensitive and proprietary.

    我們將此信息視為敏感和專有信息。

  • To help investors understand the drivers of our corporate gross margins, we will provide color on factors affecting gross margins.

    為了幫助投資者了解我們公司毛利率的驅動因素,我們將提供影響毛利率的因素的顏色。

  • We will continue to provide revenue and operating margin information by segment in our quarterly and annual filings with the SEC.

    我們將繼續在向美國證券交易委員會提交的季度和年度文件中按部門提供收入和營業利潤率信息。

  • With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Sanjay for concluding remarks.

    有了這個,我現在將把電話轉回給 Sanjay 做總結髮言。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Thank you, Dave.

    謝謝你,戴夫。

  • I'm proud of the Micron's teams' execution in fiscal 2018.

    我為美光團隊在 2018 財年的表現感到自豪。

  • In October, we will celebrate the 40th anniversary of Micron's founding.

    十月,我們將慶祝美光成立 40 週年。

  • Our proven track record in delivering technology and design innovation and building close partnerships with a broad range of customers has laid a solid foundation.

    我們在提供技術和設計創新以及與廣泛的客戶建立密切合作夥伴關係方面的良好記錄奠定了堅實的基礎。

  • We are now driving a culture of agility, efficiency and speed and executing on product level innovations in high-value solutions.

    我們現在正在推動敏捷、效率和速度的文化,並在高價值解決方案中執行產品級創新。

  • This transformation to the new Micron continues to build strong momentum.

    這種向新美光的轉變繼續形成強勁勢頭。

  • I'm really excited about our future, and the best is yet to come.

    我對我們的未來感到非常興奮,最好的還在後頭。

  • We will now open for questions.

    我們現在開始提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of John Pitzer of Crédit Suisse.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • Dave, I'm wondering if you could just help us understand the magnitude of the impact in the fiscal first quarter to the CPU shortages and just sort of the modest inventory correction we're seeing with some of your customers.

    戴夫,我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解第一財季對 CPU 短缺的影響程度,以及我們在您的一些客戶中看到的適度的庫存調整。

  • And specifically, on the CPU shortages, do you feel like that's something that's limited to the fiscal first quarter?

    具體來說,在 CPU 短缺問題上,您是否覺得這僅限於第一財季?

  • Or are you -- or should we think about that persisting into the fiscal second quarter?

    或者你是 - 還是我們應該考慮持續到第二財季?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Okay, yes, sure.

    好的,是的,當然。

  • So let me get -- take the first one.

    所以讓我——拿第一個。

  • Let's start with -- so on the magnitude side, we're not going to go into necessarily the details, all the details in a granular fashion.

    讓我們開始 - 所以在規模方面,我們不一定要深入細節,所有細節都以細粒度的方式。

  • Suffice it to say that they both had an impact in terms of the guidance of $7.9 billion to $8.3 billion They're a big driver of obviously why we guided in that direction.

    可以說,它們都對 79 億美元至 83 億美元的指導產生了影響。顯然,它們是我們引導該方向的重要驅動力。

  • I don't know exactly how long the CPU shortage will last.

    我不知道 CPU 短缺會持續多久。

  • I think on the inventory correction side, it will be a couple of quarters before inventory gets reduced.

    我認為在庫存修正方面,庫存減少還需要幾個季度。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • And I will just add that [with the CPU] shortages, we expect it to be short term.

    我只想補充一點,[由於 CPU] 短缺,我們預計這將是短期的。

  • It's possible that it goes beyond Q1 as well.

    它也有可能超過第一季度。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • That's helpful.

    這很有幫助。

  • And, Sanjay, maybe as a follow-up.

    還有,桑傑,也許是後續行動。

  • In your prepared comments, you talked about 2019 being a year of transition for your SSD business as you bring out NVMe product.

    在您準備好的評論中,您談到 2019 年是您的 SSD 業務轉型的一年,因為您推出了 NVMe 產品。

  • I'm wondering if you could help us understand what that means from a financial perspective for your SSD business.

    我想知道您是否可以幫助我們從財務角度了解這對您的 SSD 業務意味著什麼。

  • Do still expect growth in that business in fiscal year '19?

    是否仍然期望該業務在 19 財年實現增長?

  • And kind of how do we think about profitability as you transition from SATA to NVMe?

    當您從 SATA 過渡到 NVMe 時,我們如何看待盈利能力?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • As we said, we have gained substantial shares in SSDs, primarily based on SATA SSDs over the course of 2018, our fiscal 2018.

    正如我們所說,我們在 2018 財年(我們的 2018 財年)中獲得了主要基於 SATA SSD 的 SSD 的大量份額。

  • And we are very pleased with the progress we have made there.

    我們對在那裡取得的進展感到非常滿意。

  • And, of course, market is shifting towards NVMe SSDs, and that's where the future growth opportunity lies.

    當然,市場正在轉向 NVMe SSD,而這正是未來增長機會所在。

  • And we have been working on our NVMe SSD solution.

    我們一直在研究我們的 NVMe SSD 解決方案。

  • We plan to introduce our first NVMe solutions later this year, and then we will be ramping, as we said, in the client and consumer space, bringing new products into the market in calendar year 2019 and bringing, later on, enterprise and cloud, NVMe SSDs later in the year, in the 2019 year.

    我們計劃在今年晚些時候推出我們的第一個 NVMe 解決方案,然後正如我們所說,我們將在客戶端和消費者領域加速發展,在 2019 日曆年將新產品推向市場,並在稍後帶來企業和雲, NVMe SSD 在今年晚些時候,在 2019 年。

  • So our NVMe SSDs will be ramping up gradually over the course of 2019.

    因此,我們的 NVMe SSD 將在 2019 年逐步增加。

  • Of course, we will continue to maintain a solid share position with SATA SSDs.

    當然,我們將繼續與 SATA SSD 保持穩固的市場份額。

  • Overall, I expect that our total share in SSDs will continue to be flattish in 2019 time frame, and we expect to resume share growth from [a] 2020 time frame as we complete our NVMe SSD portfolio.

    總體而言,我預計我們在 SSD 中的總份額將在 2019 年時間框架內繼續持平,並且隨著我們完成 NVMe SSD 產品組合,我們預計將從 [a] 2020 年時間框架內恢復份額增長。

  • And by completing NVMe SSD portfolio, I mean, complete the development of SSDs, get them qualified with our customers and ramp them into production.

    通過完成 NVMe SSD 產品組合,我的意思是,完成 SSD 的開發,讓它們獲得我們客戶的認可,並將它們投入生產。

  • So we are very confident about the long-term opportunity for us in SSDs, leveraging our low-cost 64 layers NAND as well as our 96-layer NAND solutions over the course of next few quarters.

    因此,我們對 SSD 的長期機遇充滿信心,在接下來的幾個季度利用我們的低成本 64 層 NAND 以及我們的 96 層 NAND 解決方案。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Romit Shah of Nomura.

    我們的下一個問題來自野村證券的 Romit Shah。

  • Romit Jitendra Shah - Executive Director

    Romit Jitendra Shah - Executive Director

  • [Just in like] your commentary, and certainly, the CapEx paints a fairly positive view of the environment and certainly more positive, Sanjay, than what we've heard from your largest competitor, who appears to be reducing investment and preparing for a protracted downturn.

    [就像]你的評論,當然,資本支出描繪了一個相當積極的環境觀點,桑傑,肯定比我們從你最大的競爭對手那裡聽到的更積極,他們似乎正在減少投資並為長期的低迷。

  • So, I guess, my first question is, how confident are you that the adjustments you're seeing is really just a 1 or 2 quarter issue?

    所以,我想,我的第一個問題是,你對你看到的調整真的只是一個 1 或 2 個季度的問題有多大信心?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • I think most important to understand is the end market demand trends for DRAM as well as NAND continue to be strong.

    我認為最重要的是要了解 DRAM 和 NAND 的終端市場需求趨勢繼續強勁。

  • I mean, when you look at data center and cloud applications, AI is in the very, very early innings.

    我的意思是,當您查看數據中心和雲應用程序時,人工智能處於非常非常早期的階段。

  • And the whole cloud growth is in the very early innings as well.

    整個雲的增長也處於早期階段。

  • We see the DRAM requirements in enterprise and cloud data center application to be growing much faster than the total average DRAM industry demand growth, CAGR over course of few years of about 30%.

    我們看到企業和雲數據中心應用中的 DRAM 需求增長速度遠快於 DRAM 行業的總體平均需求增長速度,幾年的複合年增長率約為 30%。

  • Similarly, in mobile applications, DRAM is growing nicely as well, as machine learning kind of features, as facial recognition, et cetera, get implemented in these forms.

    同樣,在移動應用程序中,DRAM 也發展良好,因為機器學習類型的功能,如面部識別等,以這些形式實現。

  • We are already starting to see 6 to 8 gigabyte, even 10 gigabyte, coming in smart -- high-end smartphones now, and these are not too far -- and then you even see 12 gigabyte in smartphones.

    我們已經開始看到 6 到 8 GB,甚至 10 GB 的容量出現在智能手機中——現在是高端智能手機,而且還不算太遠——然後你甚至會在智能手機中看到 12 GB 的容量。

  • And similarly, on the NAND front, when you look at average capacities increasing in smartphones, you are seeing now 512-gigabyte smartphones being offered, and again, days of terabyte smartphones are not far away.

    同樣,在 NAND 方面,當你看到智能手機的平均容量增加時,你會看到現在提供 512GB 的智能手機,而且,TB 智能手機的日子也不遠了。

  • And certainly, with elasticity in NAND, average capacities in client computing applications as well as mobile devices will increase as well as attach rate of SSDs will increase.

    當然,隨著 NAND 的彈性,客戶端計算應用程序和移動設備的平均容量將會增加,SSD 的連接率也會增加。

  • So this is important.

    所以這很重要。

  • When you look at these demand trends, we feel very confident about the long-term trajectory.

    當您查看這些需求趨勢時,我們對長期軌跡充滿信心。

  • In 1 or 2 quarters here or there, there can certainly be ebb and flow in terms of demand or supply in the industry, but the long-term trend is positive.

    在這里或那裡的 1 或 2 個季度,行業的需求或供應肯定會出現潮起潮落,但長期趨勢是積極的。

  • And specific to our CapEx, I'll just point out here that we are being very prudent, very disciplined in managing our CapEx, absolutely focused on profitability and ROI.

    具體到我們的資本支出,我只想在這裡指出,我們在管理資本支出方面非常謹慎、非常自律,絕對專注於盈利能力和投資回報率。

  • We had mentioned that our CapEx on cleanroom construction and facility upgrades is increasing by $2 billion compared to last year.

    我們曾提到,與去年相比,我們在潔淨室建設和設施升級方面的資本支出增加了 20 億美元。

  • And Dave mentioned that it represents about 25% of our total CapEx guidance that we provided.

    戴夫提到,它約占我們提供的總資本支出指導的 25%。

  • And just as an example of our discipline on CapEx management in NAND, in terms of equipment CapEx for 2019, our fiscal year 2019 versus 2018, we have -- we are actually reducing the CapEx fiscal year 2019 versus 2018.

    作為我們對 NAND 資本支出管理紀律的一個例子,就 2019 年的設備資本支出而言,我們的 2019 財年與 2018 財年相比,我們實際上正在減少 2019 財年與 2018 財年的資本支出。

  • So we are extremely focused on technology conversions, technology transitions because they are the best way for us to achieve cost competitiveness as well as ROI on our investments.

    因此,我們非常關注技術轉換和技術轉型,因為它們是我們實現成本競爭力和投資回報率的最佳方式。

  • We are not adding the wafer starts, where some other competitors may have thought about those in the industry.

    我們沒有增加晶圓啟動,其他一些競爭對手可能已經考慮過業內的那些。

  • Romit Jitendra Shah - Executive Director

    Romit Jitendra Shah - Executive Director

  • I think a lot of us certainly believe in the strong secular trends that are driving your business.

    我認為我們中的很多人當然相信推動您的業務發展的強勁長期趨勢。

  • What's been a little surprising though is just the rate of change in pricing both in NAND and, it seems more recently, DRAM.

    不過,有點令人驚訝的是 NAND 以及最近似乎是 DRAM 的價格變化率。

  • Can you talk a little bit about that?

    你能談談嗎?

  • And you mentioned some customer inventory.

    你提到了一些客戶庫存。

  • I'm curious, which segments do you see that elevated?

    我很好奇,您認為哪些部分升高了?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So I think with respect to the inventory question that you have, it's very important to understand that we are not talking about debt inventory adjustment in any particular segment.

    因此,我認為關於您的庫存問題,了解我們不是在談論任何特定領域的債務庫存調整非常重要。

  • This is with few customers.

    這是客戶很少的。

  • It is a customer-specific inventory adjustment that we discuss here.

    這是我們在此討論的特定於客戶的庫存調整。

  • And, of course, we cannot call out those customers on this call.

    而且,當然,我們不能在這次電話會議上召集這些客戶。

  • And with respect to pricing, of course, we do not forecast pricing.

    當然,關於定價,我們不預測定價。

  • But you look at our F Q4 results, our DRAM pricing was flat, and 71% gross margin, record gross margin, extremely healthy.

    但你看看我們的 F Q4 業績,我們的 DRAM 定價持平,毛利率為 71%,創紀錄的毛利率,非常健康。

  • Industry environment, we see going forward as well for DRAM.

    行業環境,我們認為 DRAM 也將向前發展。

  • As I talked about, the demand drivers are vibrant for DRAM, they are diversified and they are secular in nature, and DRAM solutions are really bringing great value to the AI-driven kind of applications where they're really essential to that trend.

    正如我所談到的,DRAM 的需求驅動力是充滿活力的,它們是多樣化的,而且它們本質上是世俗的,而 DRAM 解決方案確實為人工智能驅動的應用帶來了巨大的價值,而它們對於這一趨勢非常重要。

  • And you have to keep in mind that the supply growth is slowing down as well, given the increased technology complexities and greater CapEx that is required to implement the technology transition.

    您必須記住,鑑於技術複雜性的增加和實施技術轉型所需的更大資本支出,供應增長也在放緩。

  • So overall, we continue to see healthy DRAM industry fundamentals.

    因此,總體而言,我們繼續看到健康的 DRAM 行業基本面。

  • On the NAND side, as I mentioned, this year, calendar 2018, we see NAND supply output growth at approximately 45%, and this, as you know, has been there because the industry, over the course of last several months, has gone through a major transition from 2D NAND to 3D NAND with a 64 layer.

    在 NAND 方面,正如我所提到的,今年,即 2018 年,我們看到 NAND 供應產量增長約 45%,正如你所知,這種情況一直存在,因為該行業在過去幾個月中已經消失通過從 2D NAND 到具有 64 層的 3D NAND 的重大轉變。

  • And the industry at this point is already on 3D transition in terms of total bits on a calendar year basis at about 75% level.

    在這一點上,該行業已經處於 3D 過渡階段,以日曆年為基礎的總比特數約為 75% 的水平。

  • So going forward on NAND as well, as you look at transition in the future to 96 layer, that will have the same kind of [consideration] that increase technology complexity and reduced bit gain per wafer from 64- to 96-layer transition.

    因此,在 NAND 上也向前發展,當你看到未來向 96 層的過渡時,這將具有相同的 [考慮],即會增加技術複雜性並減少從 64 層過渡到 96 層的每個晶圓的比特增益。

  • So we see moderation in the industry supply aspect in the first half of 2019.

    因此,我們看到 2019 年上半年行業供應方面的放緩。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Amit Daryanani of RBC Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Amit Daryanani。

  • Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Analyst

    Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Analyst

  • I guess, 2 from me as well.

    我想,我也有 2 個。

  • First off, could you just maybe help me understand, when I think about the gross margin guide for fiscal Q1, it's down 300 basis points, I think, sequentially.

    首先,您能否幫助我理解,當我考慮第一財季的毛利率指導時,我認為它連續下降了 300 個基點。

  • How much of that is due to the tariff issue versus what's going on in memory broadly?

    其中有多少是由於關稅問題而不是廣泛記憶中發生的事情?

  • And then as you go through fiscal '19, do you think these margins that you can improve throughout the year, especially as you [resolve] some of the tariff issue -- challenges?

    然後,當您度過 '19 財年時,您是否認為這些利潤率可以在全年提高,尤其是當您 [解決] 一些關稅問題——挑戰時?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So, first of all, the gross margin guidance was 57% to 60%.

    因此,首先,毛利率指導為 57% 至 60%。

  • So, of course, if we hit the higher end of that range, we will be 140 basis points down.

    因此,當然,如果我們達到該範圍的上限,我們將下跌 140 個基點。

  • Clearly, tariffs are impacting us, probably to the tune of 50 to 100 basis points.

    顯然,關稅正在影響我們,可能達到 50 到 100 個基點。

  • And as we talked about, we're working on steps to mitigate that.

    正如我們所談到的,我們正在採取措施來緩解這種情況。

  • That obviously takes some time.

    這顯然需要一些時間。

  • We have to do some things operationally to get ourselves in a place where it isn't as impactful.

    我們必須在操作上做一些事情來讓自己處於一個沒有那麼有影響力的地方。

  • And so it will be a quarter or 2 probably before we start to see some benefit from the improvement there.

    因此,在我們開始看到那裡的改進帶來一些好處之前,可能還需要一到兩個季度。

  • So that was certainly a factor on the gross margin side.

    所以這肯定是毛利率方面的一個因素。

  • I would say, in general, the market for DRAM is healthy.

    我想說,總的來說,DRAM 市場是健康的。

  • The market for NAND is well supplied.

    NAND市場供應充足。

  • So we built in various expectations, depending on kind of how things play out from a revenue perspective, and that certainly drives some of the gross margin adjustments as well.

    因此,我們建立了各種預期,這取決於從收入角度來看事情的發展方式,這當然也推動了一些毛利率調整。

  • But suffice it to say, if we look at this from a year-over-year comparison, gross margins, I think, in the first quarter of 2018 were 55.4%, if I'm not mistaken.

    但可以這麼說,如果我們從同比比較來看,我認為,如果我沒記錯的話,我認為 2018 年第一季度的毛利率為 55.4%。

  • So we'll be above, on a year-over-year basis, if we hit within the range of what we expect, anywhere from 160 to 460 basis points.

    因此,如果我們在我們預期的範圍內(從 160 到 460 個基點),我們將高於去年同期。

  • Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Analyst

    Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Analyst

  • That's really helpful, Dave.

    這真的很有幫助,戴夫。

  • And, I guess, if I could just follow up.

    而且,我想,如果我能跟進的話。

  • On the NAND side very specifically, pricing has degraded for a couple of months, and your data, obviously, [that you put] showed that has declined as well in the quarter.

    特別是在 NAND 方面,價格已經下降了幾個月,而且你的數據,顯然,[你放的]顯示在本季度也有所下降。

  • Again, I'm somewhat surprised that you haven't seen demand elasticity kick in with output or your demand, I guess, improving much more dramatically.

    再一次,我有點驚訝你沒有看到需求彈性隨著產出或你的需求而增加,我猜,改善得更顯著。

  • So I'm curious, what do you attribute perhaps to the fact that demand hasn't stepped up more attractively as pricing has come down?

    所以我很好奇,你認為隨著價格下降,需求沒有增加更具吸引力這一事實可能是什麼原因?

  • And do you think there's just a time lag for it to get there?

    你認為它到達那裡只是一個時間滯後嗎?

  • Or is there some other reason why we aren't seeing it?

    還是有其他原因導致我們沒有看到它?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So let me take that.

    所以讓我接受。

  • In terms of demand elasticity, we are certainly seeing that.

    就需求彈性而言,我們當然看到了這一點。

  • I think in smartphones, you do see a move to higher capacities.

    我認為在智能手機中,你確實看到了向更高容量的轉變。

  • I referred to that in my previous comment in response to the previous question.

    我在之前的評論中提到了這一點,以回應上一個問題。

  • In SSDs, which is currently [limited] to consumer and channels-related SSDs, with the benefit of lower-priced NAND, certainly, you see -- you are starting to see -- there's always some lag.

    在 SSD 中,目前 [僅限於] 消費者和渠道相關的 SSD,具有較低價格的 NAND 的好處,當然,你會看到 - 你開始看到 - 總是有一些滯後。

  • Average capacity increases in those channels as well.

    這些渠道的平均容量也會增加。

  • So overall, NAND should definitely continue to benefit from price elasticity.

    所以總體而言,NAND 肯定會繼續受益於價格彈性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Tim Arcuri of UBS.

    您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Tim Arcuri。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • I had two.

    我有兩個。

  • So, Sanjay, first, I wanted to see if you can provide some color sort of in terms of your reduction in cost for DRAM in fiscal 2019 and whether you think it'd be similar to what you reduced cost in DRAM in fiscal 2018?

    所以,Sanjay,首先,我想看看你是否可以提供某種顏色來降低 2019 財年 DRAM 的成本,以及你是否認為它與你在 2018 財年降低 DRAM 成本的情況相似?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So we are not going to provide full year guidance on the cost side for fiscal year 2019, but I will tell you that we believe we are in very good position with respect to continuing to execute on our technology and manufacturing road map and realizing cost reduction.

    因此,我們不會在 2019 財年的成本方面提供全年指導,但我會告訴您,我們相信我們在繼續執行我們的技術和製造路線圖並實現成本降低方面處於非常有利的位置.

  • Of course, as we have said before, when you go from 1 technology node to the other technology node, you achieve less bits per wafer gain, and that impacts, of course, the cost reduction capability from 1 node to the next node.

    當然,正如我們之前所說,當你從一個技術節點轉移到另一個技術節點時,你獲得的每個晶圓增益的位數更少,這當然會影響從一個節點到下一個節點的成本降低能力。

  • And again, the laws of physics are the same everywhere, and this is common across the industry, as we discussed at our Investor Day.

    再一次,物理定律在任何地方都是相同的,這在整個行業都很普遍,正如我們在投資者日所討論的那樣。

  • So 1Y technology in mature years will provide less cost reduction than 1X technology provided over the 20-nanometer.

    因此,成熟年份的 1Y 技術將比 20 納米上提供的 1X 技術提供更少的成本降低。

  • Nonetheless, our position will be good in terms of cost reduction.

    儘管如此,我們的立場在降低成本方面將是有利的。

  • Things that we discussed at Investor Day, we feel very good about our ongoing march toward strengthening our cost competitiveness.

    我們在投資者日討論的事情,我們對我們正在加強成本競爭力的持續進軍感到非常滿意。

  • And, of course, in NAND, we are in very good position with the lowest-cost technology in the industry.

    當然,在 NAND 方面,我們擁有業內成本最低的技術,處於非常有利的位置。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • Awesome, awesome.

    真棒真棒。

  • And then I had a question on the fiscal 2019 CapEx.

    然後我有一個關於 2019 財年資本支出的問題。

  • So Samsung is pretty significantly -- well, not just them, but both of your peers are pretty significantly reducing DRAM CapEx next year.

    所以三星非常顯著——嗯,不僅僅是他們,而且你的兩個同行明年都在顯著減少 DRAM 資本支出。

  • And it sounds like if I strip out the infrastructure and the building portion, that your equipment spending on DRAM is going to go up next year.

    聽起來如果我去掉基礎設施和建築部分,明年你在 DRAM 上的設備支出將會增加。

  • So I'm asking about the juxtaposition of you increasing your DRAM CapEx when your peers are pretty heavily cutting DRAM CapEx next year.

    所以我問的是,當你的同行明年大幅削減 DRAM 資本支出時,你會增加你的 DRAM 資本支出。

  • So I wanted you to talk about that dynamic and, specifically, what it would take for you to cut DRAM CapEx next year.

    所以我想讓你談談這種動態,特別是明年削減 DRAM 資本支出需要什麼。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So let me just point out that in 2018, we were well below the industry in terms of overall CapEx.

    所以讓我指出,在 2018 年,我們的整體資本支出遠低於行業。

  • And overall, we definitely are absolutely focused on technology transitions with respect to our CapEx, and we believe we have, really, a prudent disciplined focus, as I said before, in terms of addressing our CapEx toward equipments, targeting it toward technology transition and bit growth coming from the technology transition.

    總體而言,我們絕對專注於資本支出方面的技術轉型,並且我們相信,正如我之前所說,在解決我們的資本支出方面,我們確實有一個審慎的紀律重點,將其定位於技術轉型和來自技術轉型的比特增長。

  • We have mentioned that calendar year '19, we see our supply bit growth in line with the industry on DRAM side, which we expect to be approximately 20%.

    我們已經提到 '19 日曆年,我們看到我們的供應位增長與 DRAM 方面的行業一致,我們預計約為 20%。

  • And in NAND, we have said that we expect our fiscal year 2019 supply output bit growth to be -- industry to be in the range of 35% to 40% and for us to be somewhat higher.

    在 NAND 方面,我們曾說過,我們預計 2019 財年的供應產出位增長將在 35% 到 40% 之間,並且對我們來說會更高。

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • And I would say, as we talked about in the prepared remarks, we do react to changes in our view, and we did reduce our CapEx plans for NAND in fiscal 2019.

    我想說,正如我們在準備好的評論中談到的那樣,我們確實對我們觀點的變化做出了反應,我們確實在 2019 財年減少了 NAND 的資本支出計劃。

  • So we are able to make adjustments as we see changes.

    因此,我們能夠在看到變化時進行調整。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And, of course, we retain some flexibility in terms of managing this on an ongoing basis as well.

    當然,我們在持續管理這方面也保留了一些靈活性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Aaron Rakers of Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Analyst

  • Two, if I can, as well.

    二,如果可以的話,也可以。

  • Kind of building on that last question.

    有點建立在最後一個問題上。

  • As we think about what you've said about 96-layer and less of an incremental capacity increase when compared to that of 64-layer, I'm wondering if you could provide us some framework of how we should think about the next phase of transition to NAND in terms of bit output increases on a per wafer perspective.

    當我們想到你所說的關於 96 層的內容,並且與 64 層相比,增量容量增加更少,我想知道你是否可以為我們提供一些框架,說明我們應該如何考慮下一階段的從每個晶圓的角度來看,在位輸出方面向 NAND 的過渡會增加。

  • And then I have a quick follow-up.

    然後我有一個快速跟進。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So at this point, we are not providing specifics on 96-layer and how much you gain per wafer, but I think some of it can be obvious as well.

    所以在這一點上,我們沒有提供 96 層的細節以及每片晶圓可以獲得多少,但我認為其中一些也很明顯。

  • You are going from 64-layer to 96 layers.

    您將從 64 層變為 96 層。

  • And future generation beyond 96-layer will tend to have, again, reduced bit gain per wafer.

    超過 96 層的下一代將再次降低每個晶圓的比特增益。

  • All of that is obviously -- along with the assumptions of industry ramp of 96-layer, is baked into our overall guidance of fiscal year -- calendar year '19 NAND bit growth of 35% to 40%.

    所有這一切顯然——連同 96 層行業增長的假設,被納入我們財年的總體指導——日曆年 '19 NAND 位增長 35% 至 40%。

  • It's slowing down because, again, 64-layer to 96-layer will give you less gain.

    它正在放慢速度,因為再次從 64 層到 96 層會給你帶來更少的收益。

  • So in 2018, you saw a onetime increase in NAND bit growth, given that the industry went from 2D to 3D transition with 64-layer.

    因此,在 2018 年,您看到 NAND 位增長一度增長,因為該行業從 2D 過渡到 64 層的 3D 過渡。

  • Going forward, it will revert back to the same curve of less and less bit gain and, of course, more CapEx requirements with each successive technology transition.

    展望未來,它將恢復到比特增益越來越少的相同曲線,當然,每次連續的技術過渡都會增加更多的資本支出要求。

  • Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Analyst

    Aaron Christopher Rakers - MD of IT Hardware & Networking Equipment and Senior Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Fair enough.

    很公平。

  • As a quick follow-up, I'm curious, you talked a little bit earlier about your NVMe positioning and then the portfolio expansion.

    作為快速跟進,我很好奇,您之前談到了您的 NVMe 定位以及產品組合擴展。

  • You didn't talk much about quad level cell or QLC.

    您沒有過多談論四級單元或 QLC。

  • So maybe if you can update us of where you see that positioned and when we should expect to see that kind of impacting the SSD business as we look through calendar '19 or into 2020.

    因此,也許您可以向我們更新您看到的位置以及我們應該期望看到這種影響 SSD 業務的時間,因為我們在 19 年或 2020 年的日曆中看到了這種影響。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So in my prepared remarks, I did mention about QLC, and we have -- we are the first ones to introduce QLC SSDs in the industry, very proud of Micron's ability and execution in that area and very proud of our team to be able to do that.

    因此,在我準備好的發言中,我確實提到了 QLC,而且我們有 - 我們是業內第一個推出 QLC SSD 的公司,對美光在該領域的能力和執行力感到非常自豪,並為我們的團隊能夠去做。

  • And we have just begun with certain set of limited customers taking that QLC SATA SSD product to the market.

    我們剛剛開始與某些有限的客戶一起將 QLC SATA SSD 產品推向市場。

  • This will be a growing revenue for us within SSD next year.

    這將是我們明年在 SSD 中不斷增長的收入。

  • Although it will remain relatively small, it will initially be, of course, in the SATA QLC solutions.

    儘管它仍然相對較小,但它最初當然會出現在 SATA QLC 解決方案中。

  • As in the past, when you went through MLC transitions in the NAND industry or you went through the TLC transitions in the NAND industry, those transitions occurred over the course of few years, and we similarly expect the QLC transition to be happening gradually over the course of next few years, although we will start realizing revenue from QLC SSDs starting now, but -- then continuing to increase it modestly in calendar 2019 as well.

    與過去一樣,當您在 NAND 行業經歷 MLC 轉換或在 NAND 行業經歷 TLC 轉換時,這些轉換發生在幾年內,我們同樣預計 QLC 轉換將在在接下來的幾年裡,雖然我們將從現在開始實現 QLC SSD 的收入,但是——然後在 2019 年繼續適度增加收入。

  • And, of course, focusing on it in the SSD space.

    而且,當然,專注於 SSD 領域。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Harlan Sur of JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • On inventory adjustments, is this primarily client side or data center side?

    在庫存調整方面,這主要是客戶端還是數據中心?

  • And is this a statement more about just kind of higher accumulated inventories in the first half?

    這是更多關於上半年累積庫存增加的說法嗎?

  • Or is this a statement around the overall demand environment coming in less than expected or a combination of both?

    或者這是圍繞整體需求環境的聲明低於預期還是兩者兼而有之?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So as I said before, this is not limited to any particular segment.

    所以正如我之前所說,這不限於任何特定的細分市場。

  • It is more specific customer consideration.

    這是更具體的客戶考慮。

  • And given the kind of pricing that had existed in the DRAM market, certain customers have certain inventory levels that -- in a certain inventory strategy that they were pursuing.

    鑑於 DRAM 市場中存在的那種定價,某些客戶有一定的庫存水平——在他們追求的某種庫存策略中。

  • And those customers have decided to adjust their inventory levels.

    這些客戶已經決定調整他們的庫存水平。

  • So that's what we refer to in our remarks.

    這就是我們在評論中所指的內容。

  • In terms of the end market demand for those customers and end market demand for DRAM application, that continues to be solid.

    就這些客戶的終端市場需求和 DRAM 應用的終端市場需求而言,這將繼續保持穩固。

  • It's just an inventory adjustment approach of some of our customers.

    這只是我們一些客戶的一種庫存調整方法。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • And you guys have done a great job of improving the NAND mix.

    你們在改進 NAND 組合方面做得很好。

  • I mean, your margins actually went up in the quarter.

    我的意思是,你的利潤率實際上在本季度有所上升。

  • Given the strong cloud spending trends, you obviously have a great mix of enterprise and cloud SATA products.

    鑑於強勁的雲支出趨勢,您顯然擁有企業和雲 SATA 產品的完美組合。

  • The transition to NVMe is going to be slower than expected, so I would anticipate your SATA products continue to do well.

    向 NVMe 的過渡將比預期的要慢,因此我預計您的 SATA 產品將繼續表現良好。

  • So on a go-forward basis, and given your customer spending trends, do you guys anticipate continued mix-based improvements and benefits in your NAND business from a gross margin perspective?

    因此,在前進的基礎上,鑑於您的客戶支出趨勢,你們是否預計從毛利率的角度來看,您的 NAND 業務會繼續基於混合的改進和收益?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • I mean, absolutely, we will continue to increase our high-value solutions mix, which means SSDs as well as managed NAND solutions for mobile application, including discrete managed NAND solutions as well as multichip packages, where, of course, we have a significant benefit because we have both DRAM and NAND.

    我的意思是,當然,我們將繼續增加我們的高價值解決方案組合,這意味著 SSD 以及用於移動應用的託管 NAND 解決方案,包括分立託管 NAND 解決方案以及多芯片封裝,當然,我們在這些方面擁有重要的受益,因為我們同時擁有 DRAM 和 NAND。

  • So absolutely, this is part of our strategy.

    所以絕對是,這是我們戰略的一部分。

  • We will absolutely continue to increase our mix of SSD and managed NAND solutions, high-value solutions.

    我們絕對會繼續增加 SSD 和託管 NAND 解決方案、高價值解決方案的組合。

  • Just want to remind you that we had shared at the Investor Day that in fiscal year '17, we had about 40% of NAND revenue coming from our high-value solution, that means SSDs and managed NAND solutions.

    只是想提醒您,我們在投資者日分享了在 17 財年,我們大約 40% 的 NAND 收入來自我們的高價值解決方案,這意味著 SSD 和託管 NAND 解決方案。

  • And in fiscal year '18, we increased that to a little over 60%.

    在 18 財年,我們將這一比例提高到略高於 60%。

  • In fact, in fiscal Q4, our managed NAND and SSD mix, the high-value solutions mix in NAND is over 2/3.

    事實上,在第四財季,我們託管的 NAND 和 SSD 組合中,NAND 中的高價值解決方案組合超過了 2/3。

  • So this just goes to show you that we are absolutely working toward our goal that we had shared with you at the Investor Day, that by 2021, we will have 80% of our NAND revenue in terms of -- actually, in terms of managed NAND solutions.

    因此,這只是向您表明,我們絕對正在朝著我們在投資者日與您分享的目標努力,即到 2021 年,我們將擁有 80% 的 NAND 收入——實際上,就託管NAND 解決方案。

  • So this is going really well for us, and it, of course, provides us the benefits in terms of profitability as well.

    所以這對我們來說非常順利,當然,它也為我們提供了盈利能力方面的好處。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini of SIG.

    我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • 2 questions.

    2個問題。

  • Sanjay, you have been referencing visibility onto data center.

    Sanjay,您一直在提及數據中心的可見性。

  • I think it's something that, I think, investment community would really appreciate if you could give us the thought process that gives you the confidence.

    我認為,如果您能給我們提供給您信心的思考過程,我認為投資界會非常感激。

  • And what are the key metrics that gives you the visibility?

    什麼是讓您可見的關鍵指標?

  • Anything here that could be specific would be really great.

    這裡任何可能具體的內容都會非常棒。

  • And I have a follow-up.

    我有一個後續行動。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So, certainly, I think when you look at the data center, the total CapEx increases particularly in the hyperscale application, a lot of that CapEx, (inaudible) go toward server and memory and storage application.

    因此,當然,我認為當您查看數據中心時,總資本支出增加,特別是在超大規模應用程序中,很多資本支出(聽不清)流向服務器、內存和存儲應用程序。

  • But that certainly is an indication of the continuing year-over-year growth (inaudible) certainly an indication of [keeping] opportunity.

    但這肯定表明持續的同比增長(聽不清)當然表明[保留]機會。

  • But again, I will point out that we are in very early innings there.

    但是,我要再次指出,我們在那里處於很早的一局。

  • And this is going to be a multi-year growth opportunity for us.

    這對我們來說將是一個多年的增長機會。

  • And we are actually focused on working closely with the customers in this space.

    我們實際上專注於與這個領域的客戶密切合作。

  • And through those discussions, we had good visibility from them in terms of our opportunity for the future.

    通過這些討論,就我們未來的機會而言,我們從他們那裡得到了很好的了解。

  • So we feel very good about our growth opportunities in this part of the segment here.

    因此,我們對我們在這一部分的增長機會感到非常滿意。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • I completely agree with you.

    我完全同意你的觀點。

  • And I think your Analyst Day provided a lot of detail and informative information on how the opportunities could be.

    我認為你的分析師日提供了很多關於機會如何的詳細信息和信息。

  • I think what we are struggling with is how to model this, even if it's not on a quarterly basis, maybe on a 6-month basis, because perhaps, opportunities by 2020, 2021 are enormous.

    我認為我們正在努力解決的問題是如何對此進行建模,即使不是每季度一次,也可能是每 6 個月一次,因為到 2020 年、2021 年的機會可能是巨大的。

  • But what happens in 2019?

    但是2019年會發生什麼?

  • And how should we think about cloud CapEx?

    我們應該如何看待雲資本支出?

  • In the past, we had PC units and we had content.

    過去,我們有 PC 單元,我們有內容。

  • We had smartphone units and the content.

    我們有智能手機單元和內容。

  • But now the cloud -- either an Internet company or a software company providing cloud services, it's very difficult to model this.

    但是現在雲——無論是互聯網公司還是提供雲服務的軟件公司,都很難建模。

  • And we have to think about how '19 will look like before all of these opportunities would materialize.

    在所有這些機會實現之前,我們必須考慮 19 年的樣子。

  • And I was just wondering if there's anything you can share with us to help us with the thought process.

    我只是想知道您是否可以與我們分享任何東西來幫助我們完成思考過程。

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So I think one of the things I will share with you is that if you look at the DRAM demand growth projections in the cloud and enterprise data center space, you will see that, that CAGR over a few years is 30%, and that is higher than the expected DRAM overall industry supply bit growth of 20%.

    因此,我想我將與您分享的一件事是,如果您查看雲和企業數據中心領域的 DRAM 需求增長預測,您會看到,幾年的複合年增長率為 30%,即高於預期 DRAM 整體行業供應位元增長 20%。

  • So this is one of the fastest growth areas where DRAM, along with NAND, really bring a lot of value to those customers.

    因此,這是 DRAM 與 NAND 一起真正為這些客戶帶來很多價值的增長最快的領域之一。

  • I think at our Investor Day, we had taken you through the details of how AI-driven applications are requiring 6x more DRAM per server and 2x more SSDs per server.

    我想在我們的投資者日,我們已經詳細介紹了人工智能驅動的應用程序如何要求每台服務器增加 6 倍的 DRAM 和每台服務器的 2 倍 SSD。

  • So I think you have to look at all of these trends.

    所以我認為你必須看看所有這些趨勢。

  • There is no one particular trend that I can point to.

    我無法指出一種特定的趨勢。

  • You -- in this regard, of course, you have to look at the cloud CapEx.

    你——在這方面,當然,你必須看看雲資本支出。

  • You have to look at the average capacity increases that are taking place on the DRAM side as well as for the NAND side in cloud applications, the server attach rates.

    您必須查看 DRAM 端以及雲應用程序中 NAND 端的平均容量增長,即服務器連接率。

  • The CPUs that are going into the servers have more memory channels that's enabling more DRAM growth per server content in the data center application.

    進入服務器的 CPU 具有更多的內存通道,這使得數據中心應用程序中每個服務器內容的 DRAM 增長更多。

  • So there are many of these things that all absolutely are pointing to strong demand drivers.

    因此,有許多事情都絕對指向強勁的需求驅動因素。

  • And just to end the comment here, I would point out that our end market applications are well diversified in DRAM.

    在這裡結束評論,我要指出,我們的終端市場應用在 DRAM 中非常多樣化。

  • Of course, cloud and data center is 1 strong growth area for us, but mobile, automotive, industrial, IoT, all of these are also growth applications.

    當然,雲和數據中心是我們的一個強勁增長領域,但移動、汽車、工業、物聯網,所有這些也是增長應用。

  • For example, in automotive and industrial, we have #1 market share, and that's a very stable kind of market opportunity.

    例如,在汽車和工業領域,我們擁有第一的市場份額,這是一種非常穩定的市場機會。

  • And we are doing very well.

    我們做得很好。

  • Graphics is another example, right?

    圖形是另一個例子,對吧?

  • We are very strong positioned in graphics as well and another growth opportunity.

    我們在圖形和另一個增長機會方面也非常強大。

  • So multiple growth drivers and we are well positioned.

    如此多的增長動力,我們處於有利地位。

  • The message is the industry is structurally different, and Micron -- the new Micron is also structurally different.

    信息是行業在結構上有所不同,而美光——新的美光也在結構上有所不同。

  • And we are well positioned to drive the business going forward.

    我們有能力推動業務向前發展。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And if I may just have a quickie one for David.

    如果我可以為大衛準備一份快餐。

  • How should we think about your NAND and DRAM aggregate inventory?

    我們應該如何看待您的 NAND 和 DRAM 總庫存?

  • Are there number of days?

    有天數嗎?

  • Or how has it changed sequentially?

    或者它是如何順序變化的?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Well, inventory in total is probably all we are breaking out, which inventory on a days basis right now is in kind of the high 90s.

    好吧,總庫存可能就是我們要突破的全部,現在以天為基礎的庫存量是 90 年代的高點。

  • It's been that way for some time now.

    這種情況已經有一段時間了。

  • I would say we're comfortable with our inventory position.

    我想說我們對我們的庫存狀況感到滿意。

  • Having said that, if you remember in the Analyst Day, Manish, that runs operations talked about some of the things he was doing to improve the efficiency of the manufacturing group and, on top of that, improve, in particular, the back-end and try to make that more streamlined.

    話雖如此,如果您還記得在分析師日,運營運營的 Manish 談到了他正在做的一些事情,以提高製造團隊的效率,最重要的是,改進,特別是後端並嘗試使其更加精簡。

  • And there's a whole bunch of things we're doing in terms of system improvement and process improvement that I think will actually have a pretty good effect on inventory going forward.

    在系統改進和流程改進方面,我們正在做很多事情,我認為這實際上會對未來的庫存產生很好的影響。

  • So over time, I think you'll see us carry a lower days of inventory and improved working capital in the process.

    因此,隨著時間的推移,我認為您會看到我們的庫存天數減少,並在此過程中改善營運資金。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our last question for this session comes from C.J. Muse of Evercore.

    我們本次會議的最後一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • If I could ask two.

    如果我能問兩個。

  • First one, on the call, you talked about moderating NAND supply in the first half of '19.

    第一個,在電話會議上,您談到了 19 年上半年緩和 NAND 供應。

  • Curious, with the construct of inventory adjustment at a few of your customers, could you kind of walk through how you're seeing DRAM supply/demand, particularly as you also layer in some of the cuts that we've seen from your 2 other competitors in terms of equipment add over the last 6 to 9 months?

    好奇的是,隨著您的一些客戶的庫存調整結構,您能否了解一下您如何看待 DRAM 供需,特別是當您還加入了我們從您的其他 2 個客戶那裡看到的一些削減時在過去 6 到 9 個月內,競爭對手在設備方面的增加?

  • Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

    Sanjay Mehrotra - CEO, President & Director

  • So as we mentioned, we see DRAM to be healthy in Q1, and we definitely see healthy demand supply chain for DRAM beyond that as well, given the well-diversified growth drivers for DRAM.

    因此,正如我們所提到的,我們認為 DRAM 在第一季度是健康的,而且鑑於 DRAM 的增長動力非常多樣化,我們肯定會看到 DRAM 的健康需求供應鏈。

  • So overall, we see DRAM in balance.

    所以總的來說,我們看到 DRAM 處於平衡狀態。

  • And regarding the inventory adjustment, I just want to be clear that, that comment is related to DRAM.

    關於庫存調整,我只想明確一點,該評論與DRAM有關。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Very helpful.

    非常有幫助。

  • And then as my follow-up, on the buybacks, you talked about a $1.5 billion or roughly 3% of the company.

    然後作為我的後續行動,關於回購,你談到了 15 億美元或大約 3% 的公司股份。

  • I'm curious, given you had the 10b5 program in place September 1, should that be front-end-loaded, thus more material benefit as we go through this quarter and next?

    我很好奇,鑑於您在 9 月 1 日實施了 10b5 計劃,是否應該在前端加載,從而在本季度和下一季度獲得更多物質利益?

  • And then also, considering you're now, I think, $2.5 billion, plus or minus, net cash position, at these prices, would you consider being even more aggressive?

    然後,考慮到你現在的淨現金頭寸為 25 億美元,以這些價格計算,你會考慮更加激進嗎?

  • David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

    David A. Zinsner - Senior VP & CFO

  • Good question, C.J. And I do want to thank investors for being patient with us a little bit.

    好問題,C.J. 我確實要感謝投資者對我們有點耐心。

  • We announced this in May at the Analyst Day, and we needed a few more months to get the balance sheet to where we wanted.

    我們在五月份的分析師日宣布了這一點,我們還需要幾個月的時間才能讓資產負債表達到我們想要的水平。

  • As you mentioned, now we have a great net cash position, we have debt now below $5 billion, that is 0.3x EBITDA, and we have great liquidity.

    正如你所提到的,現在我們擁有很好的淨現金頭寸,我們的債務現在低於 50 億美元,即 EBITDA 的 0.3 倍,而且我們有很好的流動性。

  • We're now over $9 billion of liquidity, and we said we wanted to be 30% of sales in liquidity.

    我們現在有超過 90 億美元的流動性,我們說我們希望流動性佔銷售額的 30%。

  • So we're in a very strong position entering fiscal 2019, which I think is great.

    因此,我們在進入 2019 財年時處於非常有利的地位,我認為這很好。

  • Our intention is to be fairly programmatic about the buyback, and so that $1.5 billion does represent more of a programmatic-type approach.

    我們的意圖是對回購進行相當程序化,因此 15 億美元確實代表了更多的程序化方法。

  • Having said that, we did mention that we have layered, on top of that, some opportunistic repurchases, and so that will be somewhat timing-based, based on when the opportunities arise to take advantage of buying back a little bit more.

    話雖如此,我們確實提到我們已經分層,最重要的是,一些機會性回購,所以這將在某種程度上基於時間,基於機會何時出現以利用更多回購的機會。

  • In both Sanjay and my prepared remarks, we did talk about acceleration.

    在桑杰和我準備好的講話中,我們確實談到了加速。

  • And if you look at the $1.5 billion and kind of make some estimations around our free cash flow for the first quarter, you'll probably get a figure that is above the 50% free cash flow number we said we are committed to.

    如果你看一下 15 億美元,並對我們第一季度的自由現金流做出一些估計,你可能會得到一個高於我們承諾的 50% 自由現金流的數字。

  • So I think it is in the cards for us to be a little bit more aggressive over time, and we obviously think that this is a fantastic price to be buying the stock at.

    因此,我認為隨著時間的推移,我們有可能變得更加激進,而且我們顯然認為這是購買股票的絕佳價格。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference.

    女士們,先生們,今天的會議到此結束。

  • Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

    感謝您的參與,祝您有美好的一天。

  • You may disconnect at this time.

    此時您可以斷開連接。