美光科技 (MU) 2007 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon.

下午好。

My name is Anthony and I will be your conference facilitator today.

我的名字是安東尼，今天我將成為您的會議主持人。

At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Micron Technology fourth quarter and fiscal year-end 2007 financial release conference call.

在此，我想歡迎大家參加美光科技 2007 年第四季度和財年末財務發布電話會議。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

（操作員說明）。

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mr.

現在，我很高興將發言權交給您的主人，先生。

Kipp Bedard.

基普·貝達德。

Sir, you may begin your conference.

先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Welcome to Micron Technology's fourth quarter and fiscal year-end 2007 financial release conference call.

歡迎參加美光科技公司 2007 年第四季度和財年末財務發布電話會議。

On the call today is Steve Appleton, Chairman and CEO; Mark Durcan, President and Chief Operating Officer; Bill Stover, Vice President of Finance and CFO; and Mike Sadler, Vice President of Worldwide Sales.

今天的電話會議是主席兼首席執行官史蒂夫阿普爾頓； Mark Durcan，總裁兼首席運營官； Bill Stover，財務副總裁兼首席財務官；以及全球銷售副總裁 Mike Sadler。

This conference call, including audio and slides, is also available on Micron's website at Micron.com.

本次電話會議，包括音頻和幻燈片，也可在美光的網站 Micron.com 上獲得。

If you have not had an opportunity to review the fourth quarter and fiscal year-end 2007 financial press release, it is also available on our website, again at Micron.com.

如果您沒有機會查看 2007 年第四季度和財年末的財務新聞稿，也可以在我們的網站 Micron.com 上獲得該新聞稿。

Our call will be approximately 60 minutes in length.

我們的通話時間約為 60 分鐘。

There will be a taped audio replay of this call available later this evening at 5.30 PM Mountain time.

今晚晚些時候山區時間下午 5 點 30 分，將提供這次通話的錄音重播。

You can reach that by dialing 973-341-3080, a confirmation code of 9266785.

您可以通過撥打 973-341-3080（確認碼 9266785）來達到此目的。

This replay will run through Tuesday, October 9, 2007 at 5.30 PM Mountain time.

該重播將持續到 2007 年 10 月 9 日星期二下午 5:30 山區時間。

A webcast replay will be available on the Company's website until October 2, 2008.

2008 年 10 月 2 日之前，公司網站上將提供網絡廣播重播。

We encourage you to monitor our website at Micron.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the Company, including information on the various financial conferences that we will be attending.

我們鼓勵您在整個季度監控我們的網站 Micron.com，以獲取有關公司的最新信息，包括我們將參加的各種財務會議的信息。

Please note the following Safe Harbor statement.

請注意以下安全港聲明。

During the course of this meeting we may make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the Company and the industry.

在本次會議期間，我們可能會就公司和行業的未來事件或未來財務業績做出預測或其他前瞻性陳述。

We wish to caution you that such statements are predictions and that actual events or results may differ materially.

我們希望提醒您，此類陳述是預測，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

We refer you to the documents the Company files on a consolidated basis from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically the Company's most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q.

我們建議您參考公司不時向證券交易委員會提交的綜合文件，特別是公司最近的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格。

These documents contain and identify important factors that could cause the actual results for the Company on a consolidated basis to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward-looking statements.

這些文件包含並確定了可能導致公司在綜合基礎上的實際結果與我們的預測或前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異的重要因素。

These certain factors can be found in the Investor Relations section of Micron's website.

這些特定因素可以在美光網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements.

儘管我們認為前瞻性陳述中反映的預期是合理的，但我們不能保證未來的結果、活動水平、業績或成就。

We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements after the date of the presentation to conform these statements to actual results.

我們沒有義務在演示日期之後更新任何前瞻性陳述，以使這些陳述符合實際結果。

With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Mr.

有了這個，我現在想把電話轉給先生。

Bill Stover.

比爾斯托弗。

For those listeners may not yet have access to our press release, let me go over a summary of financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year which ended August 30.

對於那些聽眾可能還無法訪問我們的新聞稿，讓我回顧一下截至 8 月 30 日的第四季度和財政年度的財務業績摘要。

For the fourth quarter net sales totaled $1.44 billion.

第四季度淨銷售額總計 14.4 億美元。

That is an 11% increase over the preceding quarter.

這比上一季度增長了 11%。

And the Company recorded a net loss of $158 million or $0.21 per diluted share.

公司錄得淨虧損 1.58 億美元或每股攤薄收益 0.21 美元。

In spite of 15% declines in quarter over quarter DRAM and NAND pricing, the Company achieved a 4 percentage point improvement in overall gross margins, largely as a result of the cost reductions being realized on NAND Flash memory.

儘管 DRAM 和 NAND 價格環比下降 15%，但公司的整體毛利率提高了 4 個百分點，這主要是由於 NAND 閃存成本的降低。

We're very pleased with our NAND progress and note that NAND Flash realized a positive gross margin in the fourth quarter.

我們對我們的 NAND 進展感到非常滿意，並註意到 NAND 閃存在第四季度實現了正的毛利率。

For the fiscal year, net sales totaled $5.7 billion, and the Company recorded a net loss of $320 million, or $0.42 per diluted share.

本財年，淨銷售額總計 57 億美元，公司錄得淨虧損 3.2 億美元，或每股攤薄收益 0.42 美元。

Gross margin for the year came in at 19%, reflective of the ASP environment, and for the bulk of the year the early stage of ramp of NAND devices.

今年的毛利率為 19%，反映了 ASP 環境，以及今年大部分時間 NAND 設備的早期階段。

DRAM gross margins improved several percentage points comparing 2007 to 2006.

與 2007 年至 2006 年相比，DRAM 毛利率提高了幾個百分點。

Our cost reduction efforts in SG&A and in research and development are beginning to be reflected in a lower cost structure.

我們在 SG&A 和研發方面的成本降低努力開始體現在更低的成本結構中。

We expect the quarterly runrate in 2008 for SG&A to be between $125 million and $135 million.

我們預計 2008 年 SG&A 的季度運行率將在 1.25 億美元到 1.35 億美元之間。

SG&A in the fourth quarter of 2007 reflected a higher level of legal expenses in preparation for several upcoming trials.

2007 年第四季度的 SG&A 反映了更高水平的法律費用，為即將到來的幾項審判做準備。

Stock-related non-cash expenses totaled $44 million in 2007, of which approximately $21 million are reflected in SG&A.

2007 年與股票相關的非現金支出總計 4400 萬美元，其中約 2100 萬美元反映在 SG&A 中。

A strategic move to partner for NAND development has been noticeably beneficial in containing R&D expense.

與 NAND 開發合作夥伴的戰略舉措明顯有利於控制研發費用。

We expect R&D to run between $165 million and $175 million per quarter for 2008.

我們預計 2008 年每季度的研發費用將在 1.65 億美元到 1.75 億美元之間。

Our forecast for capital spending in 2008 is $2.5 billion, with the vast majority of the dollars being spent on 300 mm wafer fab tooling in support of NAND and DRAM processing.

我們對 2008 年資本支出的預測為 25 億美元，其中絕大部分用於支持 NAND 和 DRAM 加工的 300 毫米晶圓廠工具。

Approximately $750 million of that '08 capital spending is expected to come from partner contribution.

預計 08 年資本支出中約有 7.5 億美元將來自合作夥伴的貢獻。

The growth across the balance sheet is reflective of the expansion of operations at our IM Flash ventures and TECH Semiconductor.

整個資產負債表的增長反映了我們的 IM Flash 企業和 TECH Semiconductor 的業務擴張。

The Company is well positioned with $2.6 billion of cash and investments.

該公司擁有 26 億美元的現金和投資，處於有利地位。

I will close there and turn commentary over to Mike.

我將在那里關閉並將評論交給邁克。

With solid demand for computers, mobile phones and a variety of consumer electronics products, we had strong quarter over quarter revenue growth in excess of 10%.

由於對電腦、手機和各種消費電子產品的強勁需求，我們的季度收入增長強勁，超過 10%。

Contributing to the topline growth were a 20% plus NAND Flash trade ASP increase, and as referenced in the press release, strong sequential bit growth in NAND and DRAM production and shipments.

推動營收增長的是 20% 以上的 NAND 閃存貿易 ASP 增長，並且如新聞稿中所述，NAND 和 DRAM 生產和出貨量的強勁連續位增長。

Our capacity and R&D investments are resulting in further output growth, and we are in the mode of taking share in the memory market.

我們的產能和研發投入正在導致產量進一步增長，我們處於內存市場份額的模式。

As we layer in additional capacity and technology advancements, we will be in this mode for the foreseeable future.

隨著我們增加額外的容量和技術進步，我們將在可預見的未來處於這種模式。

Much of the output growth is attributed to productivity increases.

大部分產出增長歸因於生產力的提高。

In fiscal Q4 we again reduced costs at a faster pace than market prices declined.

在第四財季，我們再次以比市場價格下降更快的速度降低成本。

Due to industrywide oversupply in the memory markets however, the absolute price levels have been under pressure.

然而，由於內存市場的全行業供過於求，絕對價格水平一直處於壓力之下。

Market demand for computing products continues to be robust amidst typical seasonal demand strength heading out of calendar Q3 and into calendar Q4.

在從第三季度到第四季度的典型季節性需求強勁的情況下，計算產品的市場需求繼續強勁。

We have seen a moderate flattening in memory content per system growth from the PC OEMs encountered -- PC OEMs encountered Q3.

我們已經看到 PC OEM 遇到的每個系統增長的內存內容適度扁平化——PC OEM 遇到了第三季度。

I attribute this primarily to concerns from our customers that memory prices were increasing early in the summer.

我將此主要歸因於我們的客戶擔心內存價格在夏初上漲。

As a consequence, OEMs took steps to maintain reasonable control of system build and material costs, and used memory content as a lever to achieve that.

因此，OEM 採取措施保持對系統構建和材料成本的合理控制，並使用內存內容作為實現這一目標的槓桿。

End customers then turned to third-party module makers and spot players to fill memory needs, resulting in extraordinary amount of buying and selling activity in the spot markets.

終端客戶隨後轉向第三方模塊製造商和現貨供應商來滿足內存需求，從而導致現貨市場上出現大量買賣活動。

With memory market prices coming back down in late summer, our OEM customers are adopting a more aggressive posture towards system memory content.

隨著內存市場價格在夏末回落，我們的 OEM 客戶對系統內存內容採取了更積極的態度。

On the DRAM product front we continue to bolster the product portfolio with new offerings in the low power and low voltage arenas, as well as new high-density and high-performance DRAM products.

在 DRAM 產品方面，我們繼續通過低功率和低壓領域的新產品以及新的高密度和高性能 DRAM 產品來支持產品組合。

These products, including a newly introduced memory interface known as DDR 3, are aimed at increasing Micron's exposure to the network and communications infrastructure, mobile phone, automotive, server and PC gaming market segments.

這些產品，包括新推出的稱為 DDR 3 的內存接口，旨在增加美光在網絡和通信基礎設施、手機、汽車、服務器和 PC 遊戲市場領域的曝光率。

We have internal infrastructure to support customers in these segments, and it is only natural for us to strengthen the portfolio so we can bring more value to customers in these spaces.

我們有內部基礎設施來支持這些領域的客戶，我們很自然地會加強產品組合，以便我們可以為這些領域的客戶帶來更多價值。

Our 78 nm 1 gb DDR2 chip continues to be the high-volume product for the desktop and notebook market segments.

我們的 78 nm 1 gb DDR2 芯片仍然是台式機和筆記本電腦市場的大批量產品。

This device has reached yield maturity at our 300 mm fab in Virginia, and we are commencing the production ramp of the same chip on 300 mm wafers in our Singapore facility.

該設備已在我們位於弗吉尼亞州的 300 毫米晶圓廠達到產量成熟度，我們正在新加坡工廠開始在 300 毫米晶圓上生產相同芯片。

Much of our output growth in fiscal year '08 is coming from the 300 mm production ramp in Singapore, and as a result we expect further improvements in the DRAM cost per bit profile.

我們在 08 財年的大部分產量增長來自新加坡的 300 毫米產量增長，因此我們預計 DRAM 的每比特成本將進一步改善。

In the NAND Flash arena the vast majority of our IMFT production output today is centered on our 8 gb device running on a 72 nm process on 300 mm wafers in Virginia.

在 NAND 閃存領域，我們今天的 IMFT 產量的絕大部分集中在我們在弗吉尼亞州的 300 毫米晶圓上運行 72 納米工藝的 8 GB 設備上。

This device is being marketed to a variety of consumer electronics and memory card providers, and is in fact used to populate our own branded Lexar Flash cards and drives.

該設備面向各種消費電子產品和存儲卡供應商銷售，實際上用於填充我們自有品牌的 Lexar 閃存卡和驅動器。

We're in the early stages of volume production of the 50 nm 16 gb MLC device in Virginia.

我們正處於弗吉尼亞州 50 nm 16 gb MLC 設備量產的早期階段。

For the same die size we get twice as many bits relative to the 72 nm version, resulting in a substantial manufacturing cost reduction.

對於相同的芯片尺寸，相對於 72 nm 版本，我們獲得的位數是 72 nm 版本的兩倍，從而顯著降低了製造成本。

On the heels of the Virginia 50 nm transition is the initial production ramp of the new 300 mm facility in Lehi, Utah.

弗吉尼亞州 50 nm 過渡之後是猶他州 Lehi 的新 300 mm 工廠的初始生產斜坡。

With these lease and scale and technology deployment we couldn't be happier about our improvements in competitiveness, as evidenced by the 40% sequential cost per bit reduction in fiscal Q4.

通過這些租賃、規模和技術部署，我們對競爭力的提高感到非常高興，第四財季每比特成本連續下降 40% 就是明證。

Going forward we are well-equipped to be a leader in the high volume, high density MLC markets.

展望未來，我們有能力成為大容量、高密度 MLC 市場的領導者。

We continue with development and production of a variety of SLC devices at the Boise fab for high-performance requirements in computing, automotive, communications and other specialty markets.

我們繼續在博伊西工廠開發和生產各種 SLC 設備，以滿足計算、汽車、通信和其他專業市場的高性能要求。

Among those specialty opportunities today is the solid-state drive market.

今天的這些特殊機會之一是固態驅動器市場。

We are rolling out a family of SATA interface solid-state drives later this year.

我們將在今年晚些時候推出一系列 SATA 接口固態驅動器。

This is a logical extension to our existing portfolio as the targeted customer base and channels are already in existence here at Micron.

這是對我們現有產品組合的合理擴展，因為目標客戶群和渠道已經在美光存在。

There are compelling advantages associated with solid-state storage, such as performance, ruggedness and power conservation.

固態存儲具有引人注目的優勢，例如性能、耐用性和節能。

As we continue to implement cost reductions through both scale and technology advancements, solid-state drives will reach mass market penetration and become a tremendous driver of demand for NAND Flash devices.

隨著我們繼續通過規模和技術進步來降低成本，固態驅動器將進入大眾市場，並成為對 NAND 閃存設備需求的巨大推動力。

The mobile phone market is growing nicely in 2007, and from a market segment standpoint continues to be the primary driver of demand for our CMOS Image Sensors.

移動電話市場在 2007 年增長良好，從細分市場的角度來看，它仍然是我們 CMOS 圖像傳感器需求的主要驅動力。

As I have mentioned in past calls, we pride ourselves on having the highest performance pixels in the industry.

正如我在過去的電話會議中提到的，我們以擁有業內最高性能的像素而自豪。

As a result, we are taking share in the high end of the market.

因此，我們在高端市場中佔有一席之地。

This was evidenced in fiscal Q4 with the quarter over quarter increase in imaging revenues despite a moderate unit shipment decrease.

這一點在第四財季得到了證明，儘管單位出貨量略有下降，但成像收入環比增長。

We have worked diligently at establishing a balanced customer base in the mobile phones space for our image sensors.

我們一直在努力為我們的圖像傳感器在手機領域建立平衡的客戶群。

The results are encouraging as the revenue pipeline is loaded with design wins at multiple customers.

結果令人鼓舞，因為收入渠道中充滿了多個客戶的設計勝利。

Beyond the mobile phone market, our 8 megapixel sensors are now featured in a variety of digital still cameras that are now available to consumers.

除了移動電話市場，我們的 8 兆像素傳感器現在還用於各種數碼相機，這些相機現在可供消費者使用。

This is a space formally locked up with DTV technology, and we believe today's CMOS digital still cameras are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of further CMOS market penetration.

這是一個被 DTV 技術正式鎖定的空間，我們相信今天的 CMOS 數碼相機只是進一步滲透 CMOS 市場的冰山一角。

We're at the forefront of this effort.

我們處於這項工作的最前沿。

Without question, the market environment is challenging, and this is attributed to the industrywide supply growth that is outstripping demand.

毫無疑問，市場環境充滿挑戰，這歸因於整個行業的供應增長超過了需求。

With recently announced cutbacks in capital spending and anecdotal input from capital equipment providers, this cycle will be self-correcting, just as has been the case in the past.

隨著最近宣布削減資本支出和資本設備供應商的傳聞輸入，這個週期將自我糾正，就像過去一樣。

Fundamentally demand is quite strong for our products.

從根本上說，我們的產品需求非常強勁。

Customers like our product portfolio and roadmap.

客戶喜歡我們的產品組合和路線圖。

And we're becoming much more cost-efficient in manufacturing these products.

我們在製造這些產品方面變得更加經濟高效。

With that I will turn it back to Kipp for a Q&A.

有了這個，我將把它轉回 Kipp 進行問答。

We would now like to take questions from callers.

我們現在想回答來電者的問題。

Just a reminder, if you are using a speakerphone, please pick up the handset when asking a question so we can hear you clearly.

提醒一下，如果您使用免提電話，請在提問時拿起聽筒，以便我們清楚地聽到您的聲音。

With that we would like to open up the phone lines.

有了這個，我們想打開電話線。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

（操作員說明）。

John Pitzer, Credit Suisse.

約翰·皮策，瑞士信貸。

I have got a couple of questions here.

我在這裡有幾個問題。

I guess if both DRAM and NAND pricing were flat from current levels, what would you expect them to be for the full first quarter?

我想如果 DRAM 和 NAND 的價格都與當前水平持平，那麼您預計它們在整個第一季度會是什麼？

And then I have a couple of follow-ups.

然後我有幾個跟進。

Sure.

當然。

This is Mike speaking.

這是邁克在說話。

If both -- if pricing were flat for the balance of the quarter and the mix were relatively representative of what we already shipped for the first four weeks of the quarter, DRAM pricing would be down about 10%.

如果兩者都 - 如果本季度剩餘時間的定價持平，並且該組合相對代表我們在本季度前 4 週已經發貨的產品，那麼 DRAM 定價將下降約 10%。

And NAND Flash trade pricing, which is essentially our selling price of Micron branded products into market, would be down about 25%.

NAND Flash 的交易價格，本質上是我們在市場上銷售美光品牌產品的價格，將下降約 25%。

Mike, you talked about bits per box [slowing] here in the calendar third quarter.

邁克，你在日曆第三季度談到了每箱的比特數[放緩]。

What is the expectation going forward?

對未來有何期待？

Do you think price elasticity will kick back in and we will start to see configurations move up, or do you think PC OEMs are going to be pretty satisfied at these configs?

你認為價格彈性會重新開始，我們會開始看到配置上升，還是你認為 PC OEM 會對這些配置非常滿意？

I think we've got a couple of things working here.

我認為我們有幾件事在這里工作。

Number one, I think we are seeing -- in fact seeing some benefit of price elasticity as the OEM customers are feeling more confident about the absolute price levels, as well as the direction of DRAM pricing.

第一，我認為我們看到了——事實上，隨著 OEM 客戶對絕對價格水平以及 DRAM 定價方向更有信心，我們看到了價格彈性的一些好處。

Feel comfortable about having a stronger memory content profile in their systems.

對在他們的系統中擁有更強大的內存內容配置文件感到滿意。

And number two, we've got the overriding effect of further penetration of Vista operating system, which tends to require more memory than its predecessors as well.

第二，我們已經獲得了進一步滲透 Vista 操作系統的壓倒一切的效果，它也往往需要比其前輩更多的內存。

So we feel pretty comfortable about the near-term, and as well as the intermediate, the longer-term about acceleration of memory content.

因此，我們對記憶內容加速的短期以及中期和長期感到非常舒服。

Last question from me.

我的最後一個問題。

If you looked at the May quarter at your segment reporting, the CMOS Image Sensor business actually lost money on an operating base.

如果您查看 5 月季度的分部報告，CMOS 圖像傳感器業務實際上在運營基礎上虧損。

I'm kind of curious if you were able to break even this quarter there or not?

我有點好奇你是否能夠在本季度實現收支平衡？

We will put that in the K, like we have done in past quarters.

我們將把它放在 K 中，就像我們在過去幾個季度所做的那樣。

So if you will bear with us on that, we will get that updated for you here in the next, I think, week or two until we get that posted.

因此，如果您願意接受我們，我們將在接下來的一兩週內為您更新，直到我們發布。

Glen Yeung of Citigroup.

花旗集團的 Glen Yeung。

Can we just start with what your bit production was in Q3, and what you think it will be in Q4 for NAND and DRAM?

我們可以從您在第三季度的比特產量開始，以及您認為第四季度 NAND 和 DRAM 的產量嗎？

On a relative basis, we were as we said -- the growth was up about 15% on the DRAM side and -- sorry, up about -- be up low double-digits going forward on DRAM and up about 40% Q over Q on the NAND side.

在相對的基礎上，正如我們所說的那樣——DRAM 方面的增長率約為 15%，而且——對不起，上升了——DRAM 未來將出現兩位數的低位增長，Q 比 Q 增長約 40%在NAND端。

That is NAND into the foreseeable future, or is that just for the next quarter?

那是 NAND 在可預見的未來，還是僅僅在下個季度？

That will be an average going forward over the next three or four quarters.

這將是未來三四個季度的平均水平。

Then can you also look at the same thing just on a cost basis?

那麼您是否也可以僅以成本為基礎來看待同樣的事情？

You get normally cost down each quarter.

您通常每個季度都會降低成本。

How do you think that might track over the next few quarters for each of NAND and DRAM?

您認為 NAND 和 DRAM 在未來幾個季度的走勢如何？

DRAM I would say down high single digits on a go forward basis, and NAND probably down midteens.

DRAM 我會說在前進的基礎上下降了高個位數，而 NAND 可能下降了十幾歲。

Thanks for that.

感謝那。

I wanted to ask you, given the pricing environment that we're in, what your sense as to what happens to all the 200 mm capacity that you and the industry have, and whether or not you think that is something may come off flying a little more quickly than it might otherwise have happened?

我想問你，考慮到我們所處的定價環境，你對你和整個行業擁有的所有 200 毫米容量會發生什麼感覺有什麼看法，以及你是否認為這可能會飛速發展比它可能發生的速度要快一點？

On the 200 mm side we've got a number of different dynamics going on.

在 200 毫米端，我們有許多不同的動態。

First of all, we have options to move the capacity around in a couple of places where we think are more productive than potentially the DRAM is allocated to at the moment.

首先，我們可以選擇將容量轉移到我們認為比目前分配 DRAM 的潛在生產力更高的幾個地方。

We have transitions going from some of the DRAM capacity into 15 nm NAND.

我們已經從一些 DRAM 容量過渡到 15 nm NAND。

And also, as Mike alluded to, we have pretty strong performance on the design wins side in Imaging right now, so we anticipate that there will be some transition of DRAM wafers into Imaging going forward.

而且，正如邁克所暗示的，我們現在在成像方面的設計獲勝方面表現非常強勁，因此我們預計未來將有一些 DRAM 晶圓向成像過渡。

Okay.

好的。

Is that at any different rate than might normally happened?

這與通常發生的速度有什麼不同嗎？

What do you mean by that?

你是什麼意思？

Are you accelerating the movement from DRAM to Image Sensor, given the fact that DRAM pricing is down so much?

鑑於 DRAM 價格大幅下降，您是否正在加速從 DRAM 到圖像傳感器的轉變？

I don't think that is the driving factor.

我不認為這是驅動因素。

The other thing to keep in mind is we don't have that much advanced DRAM running on 200 mm.

要記住的另一件事是，我們沒有在 200 毫米上運行那麼多先進的 DRAM。

Most of that stuff is what you would think of as legacy, which is either the synchronous or the pseudostatic, etc.

大多數這些東西都是你認為的遺留物，它可以是同步的，也可以是偽靜態的，等等。

So I think is a little bit of -- almost, in fact I think all of our really advanced stuff, the 50 nm and the 78 nm is all running on 300 mm at Virginia and Utah.

所以我認為有點——幾乎，事實上我認為我們所有真正先進的東西，50 納米和 78 納米都在弗吉尼亞和猶他州的 300 毫米上運行。

And Singapore is in the conversion right now to 200 mm.

新加坡現在正在轉換為 200 毫米。

They are part way through it.

他們是其中的一部分。

When you say are we accelerating, there's not a lot left actually.

當你說我們在加速時，實際上已經沒有多少了。

The Imaging business though, as you know, has been down.

不過，如您所知，影像業務一直在下滑。

And what we are seeing is that should start to grow again.

我們看到的是，它應該會再次開始增長。

Obviously it grew this quarter, and it should grow again from here as we move forward.

顯然它在本季度有所增長，隨著我們向前發展，它應該會從這裡再次增長。

If that happens, yes, we will convert more of it over it to it.

如果發生這種情況，是的，我們會將其轉換為更多。

Just one last quick one in I heard the comment that overall PC demand looks pretty solid.

在我聽到的評論中，我聽到了最後一個快速的評論，即整體 PC 需求看起來相當穩定。

I really want to get a sense from you, if you could just provide more color on how you see fourth quarter PC component outlook shaping up?

我真的很想從你那裡得到一個感覺，如果你能提供更多關於你如何看待第四季度 PC 組件前景的顏色？

We have to translate that to memory demand, of course, because that is our area of expertise.

當然，我們必須將其轉化為內存需求，因為這是我們的專業領域。

If I take a cross-section of our customers, calendar Q4 versus calendar Q3, in the PC space we're looking at a low of 5% sequential growth in bit consumption and a high of 20% growth in sequential bit consumption, and kind of a weighted average as being close to midteens, 15% or something like that, which is typical seasonal.

如果我對我們的客戶進行橫截面分析，日曆 Q4 與日曆 Q3，在 PC 領域，我們看到的是位消耗連續增長 5% 的低位，而位消耗連續增長 20% 的高位，以及種類加權平均值接近 15% 或類似的值，這是典型的季節性。

It is nothing extraordinary, but I think typical seasonal.

這沒什麼特別的，但我認為是典型的季節性。

Jim Covello, Goldman Sachs.

吉姆·科維羅，高盛。

Two quick questions.

兩個快速的問題。

On the DRAM supply, can you guys give us some kind of estimate of either how much you think DRAM CapEx needs to come down to fix the excess supply situation, and/or when that might occur?

關於 DRAM 供應，你們能否給我們一些估計，您認為 DRAM CapEx 需要降低多少才能解決供應過剩的情況，和/或何時可能發生這種情況？

And then my follow-up would just be on the solid-state drives for NAND, do you have any forecast for 2008 of what you might expect for some unit penetration on the notebook side, as some kind of example?

然後我的後續將只關注 NAND 的固態驅動器，您對 2008 年您對筆記本電腦方面的某些單位滲透率的預期有什麼預測，例如某種例子？

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

I will take the first one in terms of CapEx coming down.

在資本支出下降方面，我將採用第一個。

As you know, it is always a combination of supply and demand that has its impact on pricing.

如您所知，對定價產生影響的始終是供求關係。

And so you are really asking us to do both.

所以你真的要求我們兩者都做。

I think with your background in capital equipment you have got a pretty good handle on how that is starting to shape up for '08.

我認為以您在資本設備方面的背景，您已經很好地掌握了 08 年的情況如何開始形成。

And it is way too early for us to try and estimate what bit growth is going to be in '08 from the demand side.

我們現在嘗試從需求方面估計 08 年的比特增長還為時過早。

So I'm going to defer that one for awhile.

所以我打算把那個推遲一段時間。

I think Mike is getting ready to handle the SoC question.

我認為 Mike 已經準備好處理 SoC 問題了。

I can't reference penetration percentage, but our expectations in 2008 are that the demand for solid-state drives will be somewhere between 5 and 10 million units.

我無法參考滲透率，但我們預計 2008 年對固態硬盤的需求將介於 5 到 1000 萬台之間。

And that the memory -- the storage that that represents in terms of the percentage of the NAND market, it is still in single digits.

並且內存 - 代表 NAND 市場百分比的存儲，它仍然是個位數。

Probably 3, 4, 5% of the total market in 2008.

可能佔 2008 年總市場的 3%、4%、5%。

We do believe that within three or four years, say by 2011, we think that the demand for solid-state drives will be upwards of 50 million units per year, probably closer to 60 million units per year.

我們確實相信，在三四年內，比如到 2011 年，我們認為對固態硬盤的需求將超過每年 5000 萬台，可能接近每年 6000 萬台。

And that the number of bits consumed in those drives will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 to 25% of the total NAND market.

這些驅動器消耗的比特數將佔整個 NAND 市場的 20% 到 25% 左右。

That is why we're so bullish on this particular application segment.

這就是為什麼我們如此看好這個特定的應用領域。

Shawn Webster, JP Morgan.

肖恩韋伯斯特，摩根大通。

Can I circle up -- backup to your fiscal Q4 DRAM production and NAND production?

我可以圈起來——備份到您的第四財季 DRAM 生產和 NAND 生產嗎？

I didn't catch that.

我沒聽懂。

We actually ran over 20% NAND core DRAM bit production quarter to quarter, and we were well over our 50% that we guided to in the prior quarter on NAND.

實際上，我們每個季度都運行了超過 20% 的 NAND 核心 DRAM 位生產，並且遠遠超過了我們在上一季度在 NAND 上指導的 50%。

I'm sorry, the 20% number, that is DRAM production?

不好意思，20%的數字，那是DRAM生產？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Core DRAM production.

核心 DRAM 生產。

Total DRAM up around 20% and then NAND, 50 to 60%.

DRAM 總量增長約 20%，然後 NAND 增長 50% 至 60%。

Both were up above our -- both NAND -- DRAM was up over 20 and NAND was up over 50.

兩者都高於我們的 - NAND - DRAM 超過 20，NAND 超過 50。

We're not going to give specifics, but we're up in both categories above that guidance.

我們不會給出具體細節，但我們在這兩個類別中都高於該指導。

Then what are you seeing in terms of DRAM channel inventory now?

那麼您現在在 DRAM 渠道庫存方面看到了什麼？

I don't have good visibility into the channel inventory.

我對渠道庫存沒有很好的了解。

I can tell you of course our own inventory is in the neighborhood of four weeks -- somewhere around the neighborhood of four weeks of supply, and plus or minus depending on the particular technology, which is about where we would like to be.

我當然可以告訴你，我們自己的庫存大約是 4 週——大約有 4 週的供應量，並且取決於特定的技術，這取決於我們想要達到的位置。

Then I don't think I caught it either.

然後我想我也沒有抓住它。

Did you throw out what you guys saw in terms of your bit per box or an estimate of what your customers are loading for your -- for DRAM consumption?

您是否扔掉了你們所看到的每盒比特數或客戶為您加載的 DRAM 消耗量的估計值？

I can prefer you to the slide deck.

我可以更喜歡你而不是幻燈片。

We did show that number.

我們確實顯示了這個數字。

It is in the slides?

它在幻燈片中？

Yes.

是的。

Then can you -- is there any update that you can give us -- you guys have been speaking before on the desire to restructure or sell off your sensor business, is there any update there for us?

那麼您能否-您可以向我們提供任何更新-你們之前一直在談論重組或出售您的傳感器業務的願望，我們有什麼更新嗎？

Yes, we haven't really been that specific because we're still exploring the alternatives.

是的，我們並沒有那麼具體，因為我們仍在探索替代方案。

I think the way to characterize it is similar to what I have characterized it in the past, which is we have every intent to continue to manufacture the product at the silicon level.

我認為表徵它的方式與我過去表徵它的方式相似，即我們完全打算繼續在矽級製造產品。

It is really what we're exploring are other -- is our [down] business model with which this product makes its way to market.

這真的是我們正在探索的其他 - 是我們的 [down] 商業模式，該產品通過該商業模式進入市場。

In which case, should we do a partnership of some type where we break that out?

在這種情況下，我們是否應該建立某種類型的合作夥伴關係？

It is a little bit -- a different characterization than selling off our Imaging business, because we intend to continue to manufacture it.

這有點 - 與出售我們的成像業務不同的特徵，因為我們打算繼續製造它。

It is really a piece of it that is modeling.

它確實是建模的一部分。

Nothing is going to happen this quarter, but we will keep you updated as we move into the next quarter.

本季度不會發生任何事情，但我們會在進入下一季度時為您提供最新信息。

Thanks.

謝謝。

That makes sense.

那講得通。

In terms of the -- you had a very -- it seemed like a small inventory write-down.

就 - 你有一個非常 - 這似乎是一個小的庫存減記。

Was most of that DRAM or what was the composition of that?

大部分是 DRAM 還是其中的成分是什麼？

We identified that that is both DRAM and NAND.

我們確定那是 DRAM 和 NAND。

Greater than 50% of it, the majority of it was on the DRAM side, a little bit on the NAND side, and not on the Imaging side.

超過 50%，其中大部分在 DRAM 端，少量在 NAND 端，而不是在成像端。

And that is just mark-to-market stuff?

那隻是按市值計價的東西嗎？

You got it.

你說對了。

Doug Freedman, AMTECH Research.

道格弗里德曼，AMTECH 研究。

Just to start with, any guidance on what you think depreciation for '08 is going to look like?

首先，您認為 08 年的折舊會是什麼樣子的任何指導？

It will run between $500 million and $540 million, increasing over the year.

它將運行在 5 億美元至 5.4 億美元之間，並在一年中增加。

Here's $2.2 billion for your '08 estimate.

這是你 08 年估計的 22 億美元。

So no change there.

所以那裡沒有變化。

Then you commented that you are in a position to be taking share.

然後你評論說你可以分享。

Can you discuss if we are looking at -- in the past you have been trying to steer some of your share more towards the specialty market.

您能否討論一下我們是否正在考慮 - 過去您一直試圖將您的一些份額更多地轉向專業市場。

Any progress that you are having there, and any discussions you can have as far as where you're targeting your share gains from?

您在那裡取得的任何進展，以及您可以進行的任何討論，就您的分享收益目標而言？

Sure.

當然。

We are doing -- our objective is to take as much share as we possibly can in what you would characterize as the specialty markets.

我們正在做——我們的目標是盡可能多地在你所描述的專業市場中佔有一席之地。

Specifically we would refer to those as the server market, the mobile phone market, the networking and communications infrastructure market, automotive, medical, industrial and consumer.

具體而言，我們將其稱為服務器市場、手機市場、網絡和通信基礎設施市場、汽車、醫療、工業和消費者。

For us the desktop and notebook market primarily drives asset utilization.

對我們而言，台式機和筆記本電腦市場主要推動資產利用率。

And that is our share is lowest I think in all those market segments that I preferred to.

這是我認為在我喜歡的所有細分市場中我們的份額最低的。

With respect to us growing share, our objective would be to place as many bits as we possibly can in the premium or the specialty markets, and then utilize the notebook and the desktop markets to drive the asset utilization for us.

關於我們不斷增長的份額，我們的目標是在高端或專業市場中盡可能多地放置比特，然後利用筆記本電腦和台式機市場來推動我們的資產利用率。

In the next fiscal year we're probably looking at becoming more significant in the notebook and the desktop area relative to where we have been in the last year, and continuing to do the best job we can in those other market segments.

在下一個財政年度，我們可能會考慮在筆記本電腦和台式機領域變得比去年更重要，並繼續在其他細分市場中盡我們所能。

Can you talk a little bit about what is going on the NAND in the retail channel with your Lexar brand, and what your outlook there is, how that this is running, any update you can offer?

您能否談談您的 Lexar 品牌在零售渠道中的 NAND 發生了什麼，您的前景如何，它是如何運行的，您可以提供任何更新嗎？

First of all, let me may be characterize the Lexar operation I think with respect to where it was a year ago.

首先，讓我來描述一下我認為相對於一年前的 Lexar 操作。

I think despite in contradiction to what maybe some people have said in the media, we actually like Lexar.

我認為，儘管可能與某些人在媒體上所說的相矛盾，但我們實際上喜歡 Lexar。

It has gone very well.

進展順利。

Remember the first objective for the year was to get it -- think of it get it focused, cleaned up and back to a level where it wasn't losing the kind of money it was when we acquired it.

請記住，今年的第一個目標是得到它——想想它讓它專注、清理並回到我們獲得它時不會損失金錢的水平。

That has been accomplished.

這已經實現了。

As we look forward to the market, I think we have a greater presence actually in some channels and maybe less of a presence in other channels by virtue of us targeting the bits into what we think are better opportunities for us.

隨著我們對市場的展望，我認為我們實際上在某些渠道中的存在更大，而在其他渠道中的存在可能更少，因為我們將這些比特定位到我們認為對我們來說更好的機會中。

So it has actually gone pretty well.

所以它實際上進展得很好。

I think now we're looking at trying to retake market share in the retail channel, but in addition to that continuing to use more and more of our own output.

我認為現在我們正在考慮嘗試重新奪回零售渠道的市場份額，但除此之外，我們還要繼續使用越來越多的我們自己的產品。

Remember that a year ago when we acquired them, we didn't really have any spare NAND.

請記住，一年前我們收購它們時，我們真的沒有任何備用 NAND。

Most of it was already committed to a customer base.

其中大部分已經致力於客戶群。

And as we have grown our output, we have been able to more and more allocate into that model and obviously leverage that entire relationship.

隨著我們產出的增加，我們能夠越來越多地分配到該模型中，並且顯然可以利用整個關係。

So I think you'll see a growing presence over the next year in that channel.

因此，我認為您會在明年看到該頻道中的存在越來越多。

Just to add to that.

只是補充一點。

In our last fiscal quarter roughly 10% of our own silicon output went through the Lexar channel, and that is going to expand to about 15% in the current quarter.

在我們上一財季，我們自己的矽產量中約有 10% 是通過 Lexar 渠道進行的，而這一比例將在本季度擴大到 15% 左右。

And as we move forward our output ramp, the slope of our output ramp on NAND Flash is very significant and we're going to be putting more -- putting more and more of that output through the Lexar channel.

隨著我們的輸出斜坡向前發展，我們在 NAND 閃存上的輸出斜坡的斜率非常顯著，我們將投入更多——將越來越多的輸出通過 Lexar 通道。

Tim Luke, Lehman Brothers.

蒂姆·盧克，雷曼兄弟。

Could you give us some sense as to clarify what you said on cost reduction going forward the expectation in the NAND side?

您能否給我們一些意義，以澄清您在 NAND 方面的預期中降低成本的說法？

And maybe any expectation of timelines that you may be looking at to break even and offer you the gross margins maybe more constructionally in the NAND arena?

也許您對時間表的任何期望可能會在 NAND 領域實現收支平衡並為您提供可能更具建設性的毛利率？

This is Kipp.

這是基普。

We have been guiding previously at around 20% sequential cost reductions on NAND.

我們之前一直在指導 NAND 的連續成本降低約 20%。

Basically we have been giving you a 3 to 4 quarter rolling forecast.

基本上，我們一直在為您提供 3 到 4 個季度的滾動預測。

As you have seen from the last couple of periods, we have come down significantly better than that.

正如您在過去幾個時期所看到的那樣，我們的表現比這要好得多。

For our reference in the press release, for example, 44 to 40% in the fourth fiscal quarter.

供我們在新聞稿中參考，例如，第四財季的 44% 到 40%。

So our next update for you is we think we will bring cost down sequentially for the next three to four quarters in the midteens range on NAND.

因此，我們為您提供的下一個更新是，我們認為我們將在接下來的三到四個季度內依次降低 NAND 的成本。

When that crosses over in the future, is really a combination again as I mentioned to Jim of price and cost reductions.

當未來跨越時，就像我向吉姆提到的價格和成本降低一樣，真的是再次結合。

So I will let you model the ASP reductions, along with these kind of sequential 14 -- or excuse me, sequential midteen kind of reductions.

因此，我將讓您模擬 ASP 減少以及這些連續 14 種 - 或者對不起，連續 14 種減少。

There will be quarters where it is substantially higher than that by the way.

順便說一下，會有一些季度比這高得多。

Just like you have seen in the last couple quarters, but that is a good average for the next four quarters you are trying to model your year.

就像您在過去幾個季度中看到的那樣，但對於您嘗試為您的年度建模的接下來四個季度，這是一個很好的平均值。

In our opening comments, or in the opening finance comments, we acknowledged that NAND Flash had a positive gross margin for the fourth quarter.

在我們的開場評論或開場財務評論中，我們承認 NAND Flash 在第四季度的毛利率為正。

Tristan Gerra, Robert W.

特里斯坦·杰拉、羅伯特·W.

Baird.

貝爾德。

What percentage of your total NAND Flash output Lexar could use next year?

Lexar 明年可以使用的 NAND 閃存總輸出的百分比是多少？

And how do you capitalize on some of the controller IP you have acquired with Lexar.

以及如何利用您從 Lexar 獲得的一些控制器 IP。

Let me start with the IP piece first.

讓我先從IP開始。

We have -- we obviously think that it has been of greater value to us.

我們有——我們顯然認為它對我們來說更有價值。

Clearly we did announce the Toshiba settlement historically.

顯然，我們確實在歷史上宣布了東芝和解。

And of course it continues to be part of our portfolio.

當然，它仍然是我們產品組合的一部分。

So we have a very, very strong portfolio in this arena.

所以我們在這個領域擁有非常非常強大的產品組合。

And we believe that is in part why we have been so strong in this arena.

我們相信這也是我們在這個領域如此強大的部分原因。

And we haven't really been in litigation on the NAND front.

而且我們還沒有真正在 NAND 方面進行過訴訟。

I will just leave it at that.

我就這樣吧。

We think that part has been very valuable.

我們認為那部分非常有價值。

Obviously, it is hard to quantify in many ways.

顯然，很難以多種方式量化。

But we're pretty happy with it.

但我們對此非常滿意。

Mike, do you want to get the other?

邁克，你想要另一個嗎？

Sure.

當然。

I can't be too specific on the percentage of our output that we will move through Lexar.

對於我們將通過 Lexar 移動的輸出百分比，我不能太具體。

I think it is worth mentioning that Lexar has favorable supply agreements with some other players in the NAND Flash -- from a NAND Flash supply-side, and we want to use that to complement our own silicon going forward.

我認為值得一提的是，Lexar 與 NAND 閃存中的其他一些廠商簽訂了有利的供應協議——從 NAND 閃存供應方，我們希望用它來補充我們自己的矽片。

It is safe to say that the percentage of our output going through Lexar will increase quarter over quarter for the next several quarters.

可以肯定地說，在接下來的幾個季度中，我們通過 Lexar 的產出百分比將逐季增加。

But I don't have a particular target in mind with respect to a percentage of our overall output that we want to move through Lexar.

但對於我們希望通過 Lexar 轉移的總產出的百分比，我並沒有特別的目標。

Again, we want to take advantage of the favorable supply agreements that were in place when we acquired the company, and use those to complement our own flash output.

同樣，我們希望利用我們收購該公司時簽訂的有利供應協議，並利用這些協議來補充我們自己的閃存輸出。

Then a quick second one.

然後是快速的第二個。

The market share gains that you're mentioning in core tier 1, I am assuming have to do with a cost advantage that you currently have.

您在核心層 1 中提到的市場份額增加，我假設與您目前擁有的成本優勢有關。

If you could talk about this, and how long do you think you can extend that potential advantage?

如果你能談談這個，你認為你能把這種潛在優勢擴大到多長時間？

It has primarily to do with the bit growth, but I think you're right, it all comes back to a technology advantage that is giving us a strong quarter over quarter bit growth.

它主要與比特增長有關，但我認為你是對的，這一切都歸結為技術優勢，它給我們帶來了強勁的季度環比增長。

And the transition of -- or the completion of the ramp at [NTV], which we are now substantially through, and the transition of the TECH facility from 200 mm to 300 mm.

以及我們現在已基本完成的 [NTV] 坡道的過渡或完成，以及 TECH 設施從 200 毫米到 300 毫米的過渡。

John Lau, Jefferies & Co.

約翰劉，傑富瑞公司

I want to circle back on the CMOS sensors and give us another update again on the CMOS sensors.

我想回到 CMOS 傳感器上，再次給我們關於 CMOS 傳感器的另一個更新。

Have you seen NAND start to pick up again for cell phones and digital cameras?

您是否看到 NAND 再次開始在手機和數碼相機中崛起？

I'm missed that.

我很想念那個。

I apologize.

我道歉。

We are seeing some pretty strong acceleration in the current quarter on I will say unforecasted business, particularly on the low end.

我們在本季度看到了一些相當強勁的加速增長，我想說的是不可預測的業務，尤其是在低端業務。

Low end for us in the Sensor area would be in the VGA and 1 megapixel area.

對我們來說，傳感器區域的低端將是 VGA 和 1 兆像素區域。

And I call it spot business.

我稱之為現貨業務。

It is business that we hadn't forecasted.

這是我們沒有預料到的業務。

I'm not sure if I could attribute it to a recovery by one particular customer or seasonal demand increasing significantly.

我不確定是否可以將其歸因於某個特定客戶的複蘇或季節性需求的顯著增加。

But we are seeing some pretty good positive movements in the current quarter, particularly in the low end, that are unforecasted.

但我們在本季度看到了一些非常好的積極走勢，尤其是在低端，這是無法預料的。

But nothing significant in the higher 3 or 4 megapixel.

但在更高的 3 或 4 兆像素中沒有什麼意義。

But did you mention anything about the higher than 4 megapixel in the digital camera area again?

但是你有沒有再次提到數碼相機領域超過 4 兆像素的東西？

We have a series of design wins with our 8 megapixel sensor in the stand-alone DSC market that -- actually sales are doing quite well there.

我們的 8 兆像素傳感器在獨立 DSC 市場上取得了一系列設計勝利——實際上那裡的銷售情況相當不錯。

But we have done a pretty good job -- actually a very good job of forecasting the demand there in terms of working with our customers.

但是我們做得很好——實際上在與客戶合作方面預測需求方面做得很好。

And we put enough work in process in the pipeline essentially we don't have any shortages.

我們在管道中投入了足夠的工作，基本上我們沒有任何短缺。

I would suggest that that is also the case in the high-end mobile phone area.

我建議高端手機領域也是如此。

On a five megapixel we have got a very high-profile design win with a five megapixel sensor.

在 5 兆像素上，我們用 5 兆像素傳感器獲得了非常引人注目的設計勝利。

And the same situation, we have done a pretty good job of assessing the demand situation and we don't have any shortages.

同樣的情況，我們在評估需求情況方面做得很好，我們沒有任何短缺。

So we're right on top of things there on the high-end.

所以我們在高端的事情上是正確的。

Aaron Husock, Morgan Stanley.

亞倫·赫索克，摩根士丹利。

I was just -- sticking with Imaging for a minute.

我只是 - 堅持一分鐘的成像。

I'm looking at the August quarter.

我在看八月季度。

Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in the like-for-like pricing environment?

您能談談您在同類定價環境中看到的情況嗎？

I'm assuming that like-for-like pricing was still down in the quarter, despite your blended ASPs being up a little bit more than 5%.

我假設本季度同類定價仍在下降，儘管您的混合平均售價上漲了 5% 以上。

Can you quantify that a little bit, and talk about if you see those like-for-like pricing environment changing at all this quarter?

您能否對此進行量化，並談談您是否看到本季度所有同類定價環境都發生了變化？

I don't have the data at my fingertips such that I can give you a meaningful -- quantify that meaningfully.

我沒有觸手可及的數據，因此我可以給你一個有意義的 - 有意義地量化它。

But it is safe to say that, other than the very new products, which would be the high-end probably 5 and 8 megapixel, certainly the pricing was down quarter over quarter for, as you call it, the like for like product.

但可以肯定地說，除了非常新的產品（可能是 5 和 8 兆像素的高端產品）之外，您所說的同類產品的價格肯定會按季度下降。

Do you know -- was it down as much as we have seen historically, or are are you seeing any signs of stabilization in terms of like-for-like pricing, either in the August quarter or the current quarter?

你知道嗎 - 它是否像我們歷史上看到的那樣下降，或者你是否在 8 月季度或當前季度看到了同類定價方面的任何穩定跡象？

Nothing particularly alarming.

沒有什麼特別令人擔憂的。

Of course, if I compared it to the memory market on a relative basis, it didn't even move.

當然，如果我將它與內存市場進行相對比較，它甚至沒有動靜。

Then I guess just any plans to move to 300 mm on the Imaging side?

那麼我猜有沒有計劃在成像方面移動到 300 毫米？

I think that -- the answer first of all is yes.

我認為——首先答案是肯定的。

It is just a matter of when.

這只是時間問題。

I don't think it is if.

我不認為這是如果。

And it all has to do with timing on the economic model.

這一切都與經濟模型的時機有關。

We will be, I think, in a position within the next probably two years where we start pulling out 200 mm equipment out of the current fabs as it transitions to the next generation mode.

我認為，我們將在未來兩年內開始從當前的晶圓廠中撤出 200 毫米設備，因為它會過渡到下一代模式。

The model that we have been running is utilizing that equipment to produce Imaging, because Imaging even today, by anybody, is still running on a one or two generation lagging process technology compared to DRAM or NAND.

我們一直在運行的模型是利用該設備生產 Imaging，因為即使在今天，任何人的 Imaging 仍然在比 DRAM 或 NAND 落後的一兩代工藝技術上運行。

As a result, we of course can use that equipment, extend its life for quite some time.

這樣一來，我們當然可以使用那個設備，延長它相當長的壽命。

We could use it for memory at a very cost-effective way.

我們可以以非常經濟有效的方式將其用於內存。

And so we will go to 300 mm as we start transitioning the current memory fabs away from some the equipment they have now, obviously in favor of more advanced process equipment.

因此，當我們開始將當前的內存工廠從他們現在擁有的一些設備中轉移出來時，我們將使用 300 毫米，顯然有利於更先進的工藝設備。

It is not if, it is just when.

不是如果，而是何時。

We don't really think that happens for probably two maybe three years.

我們真的不認為這可能會在兩三年內發生。

Let me just make a comment on that.

讓我對此發表評論。

Some companies are talking about doing that today, but the reality is you can't even use the advanced process known on this type of product because it just doesn't need it.

今天有些公司正在談論這樣做，但現實是你甚至不能使用這種產品上已知的先進工藝，因為它根本不需要它。

It doesn't utilize it.

它不使用它。

So you've got a pretty high cost for doing that.

所以你這樣做的成本很高。

Until you can use the process mode that is equivalent -- that is 10 million equivalent, it doesn't make a lot of sense to do that.

除非您可以使用等價的處理模式——即 1000 萬等價，否則這樣做沒有多大意義。

And for us that time period is really still a couple of years away.

對我們來說，那個時間段確實還有幾年的時間。

[Bob Gujavardi], Deutsche Bank.

[Bob Gujavardi]，德意志銀行。

Just thinking a little more long-term, is there any update on IM Flash facility in Singapore?

只是想更長遠一點，新加坡的 IM Flash 設施有更新嗎？

When do you expect that to be a contributor to your capacity?

你預計什麼時候會成為你能力的貢獻者？

We are running pretty much on schedule, slightly ahead of schedule actually, so we still anticipate first silicon starts in the second half of '08, and start contributing meaningfully in calendar 09.

我們幾乎按計劃運行，實際上比計劃提前了一點，所以我們仍然預計 08 年下半年會開始第一批芯片，並在 09 年開始做出有意義的貢獻。

Great.

偉大的。

And just to help me size it, can we think of the capacity at IM Flash Singapore similar to Lehi, or is it a little bigger, a little smaller?

只是為了幫助我確定它的大小，我們可以考慮一下 IM Flash Singapore 的容量類似於 Lehi，還是更大一點，更小一點？

Slightly bigger.

稍微大一點。

Think of it in terms of 50,000 to 60,000 per month.

以每月 50,000 到 60,000 的方式來考慮。

Great.

偉大的。

Can you talk a little bit about -- you mentioned your [FSD] efforts, is it safe to assume you are doing some collaboration there?

你能談談 - 你提到你的 [FSD] 努力，假設你在那裡進行一些合作是否安全？

That segment seems to be getting a bit crowded and it seems pretty R&D intensive.

該細分市場似乎變得有點擁擠，而且似乎是研發密集型的。

Are you -- Intel at their IDF announced a FSD offering, are you guys kind of amortizing your R&D investment there a little bit, or is it --?

你是——英特爾在他們的 IDF 上宣布了 FSD 產品，你們是在攤銷你的研發投資，還是——？

Obviously we've had some own announcements around some FSD products we are either just introduced or walking towards.

顯然，我們已經發布了一些關於我們剛剛介紹或走向的 FSD 產品的公告。

I would say there are a number of players out there on both sides of the fence.

我想說圍欄兩邊都有很多球員。

There is both the (inaudible) guys and there are the component guys.

既有（聽不清）傢伙，也有組件傢伙。

And I think a number of us are trying to figure out if there is partnerships that will work in that space or not.

而且我認為我們中的一些人正在試圖弄清楚是否有合作夥伴關係可以在該領域發揮作用。

We're just trying to work through it.

我們只是在努力解決它。

That is all I can really say at this point.

這就是我在這一點上真正能說的。

And I certainly don't think we are alone in terms of others trying to look at what might be the best model in that market.

我當然不認為在其他人試圖研究什麼可能是該市場上最好的模型方面，我們並不孤單。

Fair enough.

很公平。

Final question, you alluded to this, but it looks like your NAND cost reductions came in again really much better than expectations, above 40% versus expectation around 20%.

最後一個問題，您提到了這一點，但看起來您的 NAND 成本降低再次比預期好得多，高於 40%，而預期約為 20%。

How should we think of that?

我們應該怎麼想？

Is that MLC penetration, just higher MLCs rate or better yields or just more aggressive down to 50 nanometer?

是 MLC 滲透，只是更高的 MLC 率或更好的良率，還是更積極地降低到 50 納米？

How is the best way to think about that?

考慮這個問題的最佳方式是什麼？

I think the results from Q4 are primarily indicative of faster ramp and higher yields we had modeled in about the MLC penetration that we actually achieved.

我認為第四季度的結果主要表明我們在模擬我們實際實現的 MLC 滲透率時實現了更快的爬坡和更高的產量。

About the technology ramps have been pretty strong.

關於技術坡道已經相當強勁。

Going forward we will be more dependant on the 50 nanometer ramp, and that also is proceeding as per schedule.

展望未來，我們將更加依賴 50 納米坡道，這也在按計劃進行。

Can you ballpark the MLC mix for me?

你能幫我介紹一下 MLC 組合嗎？

I would say it is in excess of 50%, actually it is probably closer to 75 for Micron, and Intel will have to speak for themselves.

我會說超過 50%，實際上美光可能接近 75，英特爾將不得不為自己說話。

Gurinder Kalra, Bear Stearns.

Gurinder Kalra，貝爾斯登。

Do you have any view on industrywide supply growth for NAND 2008 as compared to '07?

與 07 年相比，您對 NAND 2008 年的行業供應增長有何看法？

We have seen some reports.

我們看到了一些報導。

We have seen anything from probably 130% to 150% as it shapes up today with current CapEx announcements.

我們已經看到了可能從 130% 到 150% 的任何東西，因為它今天隨著當前的資本支出公告而形成。

We know that a lot of our competitors will update those CapEx projections in '08 over the next couple of months, and that will give all the experts out there trying to put these market expectations together a look at a new refreshed set.

我們知道，我們的許多競爭對手將在未來幾個月內更新 08 年的這些資本支出預測，這將使所有試圖將這些市場預期放在一起的專家看到一個新的更新集。

But right now we are seeing about 130 to 150%.

但現在我們看到大約 130% 到 150%。

Now based on your estimates do you think the supply growth in '08 is equivalent to the supply growth we saw in '07?

現在根據您的估計，您認為 08 年的供應增長是否與我們在 07 年看到的供應增長相當？

It is coming in very similar to '07 if it hits that rate.

如果達到這個速度，它將與 '07 非常相似。

There's a lot of movement now in CapEx, a lot of discussions, Mike referenced about some CapEx push outs, etc.

現在資本支出有很多變化，很多討論，邁克提到了一些資本支出的推出，等等。

We will just have to see how those all shake up here over the announcements over the next couple of months.

在接下來的幾個月裡，我們只需要看看這些人在這些公告中是如何動搖的。

The second question is, given your NAND supply growth, which as you say this could be (inaudible) on a quarterly basis, and given what we are seeing from others, is there any reason that Q1, or the early part of '08 we will not see very significant price declines on the NAND side?

第二個問NAND 方面不會出現非常顯著的價格下跌嗎？

It has always been our policy not to predict pricing, because as Mike mentioned, it is very difficult to do.

不預測定價一直是我們的政策，因為正如邁克所說，這很難做到。

So we will leave it to you experts to try to predict the supply/demand balance.

因此，我們將把它留給各位專家來嘗試預測供需平衡。

[Manish Goyal, Crest Investments].

[Manish Goyal，佳洁士投資]。

The question is on NAND again.

問題又在NAND上。

Your gross margins are significantly below your large competitors.

您的毛利率明顯低於您的大型競爭對手。

Roughly what scale do you need when your NAND cost structure will be comparable to the leading vendors and your gross margins are comparable?

當您的 NAND 成本結構與領先供應商相當並且您的毛利率相當時，您需要多大的規模？

Can you size that, like either in wafer starts or market share, what you need to be comparable?

你能確定你需要可比的東西嗎，比如晶圓啟動或市場份額？

I have recently heard Mark speak about the fact that technologically now we believe we are on particularly with the largest NAND supplier today.

我最近聽到 Mark 談到這樣一個事實，即從技術上講，現在我們相信我們尤其與當今最大的 NAND 供應商合作。

We're probably a couple quarters behind catching the others.

我們可能比其他人落後了幾個季度。

As we have mentioned in the past, we are in a significant ramp.

正如我們過去所提到的，我們正處於一個重要的階段。

I think Mark highlighted just a few minutes ago that this past quarter again up substantial -- almost double the cost reductions we expected came from faster ramp in Lehi, mature yields, and the beginning move of 50.

我認為馬克在幾分鐘前強調了過去一個季度再次大幅增長——幾乎是我們預期的成本降低的兩倍，原因是 Lehi 的更快爬坡、成熟的產量和 50 的開始移動。

Going through the next year it is largely due to the 50 nm, the completion of Lehi.

經歷明年主要是由於 50 nm，Lehi 的完成。

And then as Mark mentioned, sometime the latter part of '08 into '09 a continuation of Singapore.

然後正如馬克所說，08 年後期到 09 年的某個時候是新加坡的延續。

Let me just add on to what Kipp just said.

讓我補充一下 Kipp 剛才所說的話。

We -- first of all, let me tell you, we think we're probably there in terms of the Virginia facility.

我們——首先，讓我告訴你，我們認為就弗吉尼亞設施而言，我們可能在那裡。

We track this data pretty good.

我們很好地跟踪了這些數據。

It is now optimized, or pretty closely to being optimized, in its NAND production.

它現在在其 NAND 生產中進行了優化，或者非常接近優化。

Obviously it is making DRAM as well.

顯然它也在製造DRAM。

We think we are every bit as cost competitive there.

我們認為我們在那裡具有成本競爭力。

It is just a reality that when you're in the middle of a ramp it is just not as cost competitive.

這是一個現實，當您在坡道中間時，它就沒有成本競爭力。

And so Utah is in the middle of a ramp right now.

所以猶他州現在正處於坡道的中間。

And obviously as that gets ramped and optimized we think that will become the case as well.

顯然，隨著這種情況的增加和優化，我們認為情況也會如此。

We actually think we have advantages in many ways in terms of our fixed nanometer and the die size and so forth.

實際上，我們認為我們在固定納米和芯片尺寸等方面在很多方面都具有優勢。

When you say that it is obvious that our gross margin in NAND are lower than our competitors, first of all we don't disclose gross margins in NAND, although Bill just told you that it was positive for us.

當你說我們在 NAND 的毛利率明顯低於我們的競爭對手時，首先我們沒有透露 NAND 的毛利率，儘管比爾剛剛告訴你這對我們來說是積極的。

But even having said that, in our particular scenario where we are under the ramp, we have to look at it facility by facility, and we think Virginia is right here.

但即便如此，在我們位於坡道下的特定場景中，我們必須逐個設施地查看它，我們認為弗吉尼亞就在這裡。

Can I ask just a couple of more follow-ups?

我可以再問幾個後續嗎？

So 12 months out towards the end of 2008, where do you think will be your either wafer starts from NAND or maybe your aspiration for market share in NAND?

那麼到 2008 年底的 12 個月後，您認為您的晶圓將從 NAND 開始，或者您對 NAND 市場份額的渴望會在哪裡？

Maybe I could -- I probably won't go there in wafer starts.

也許我可以 - 我可能不會在晶圓開始時去那裡。

But in terms of -- unless someone else here has the data.

但就--除非這裡的其他人有數據。

But in terms of what we think happens on market share, the data is out there.

但就我們認為的市場份額而言，數據就在那裡。

I think the expectation obviously is that we will grow market share.

我認為顯然期望我們將增加市場份額。

I think most of the data today says we're in somewhere in the 5 to 7%.

我認為今天的大多數數據都表明我們處於 5% 到 7% 之間。

And I think by the time we get into '08, which would mean Utah will have been ramped, you'll probably see that double.

而且我認為，當我們進入 08 年時，這意味著猶他州將被淘汰出局，你可能會看到那個翻倍。

Just a last question on DRAM.

只是關於 DRAM 的最後一個問題。

When you think about increasing DRAM content per PC, are you thinking more in terms of either 2 gig box is moving to 3 gig, or are you thinking that the boxes are going to 1 gig or 1.5 gig move to 2 gigs.

當您考慮增加每台 PC 的 DRAM 內容時，您是否更多地考慮將 2 gig 的盒子轉移到 3 gig，或者您認為盒子會從 1 gig 或 1.5 gig 轉移到 2 gig。

You can be the leading PC vendor.

您可以成為領先的 PC 供應商。

Nobody is really advertising PCs with more than 2 (inaudible), and I was just wondering how you were thinking about the increase in content?

沒有人真正為超過 2 台（聽不清）的 PC 做廣告，我只是想知道您是如何考慮內容增加的？

I think the biggest driver of the increase in content for the next couple of quarters is going to be the move of boxes from less than 2 gigabytes to 2 gigabytes.

我認為未來幾個季度內容增長的最大驅動力將是將盒子從不到 2 GB 轉移到 2 GB。

So in other words, the 1 to 1.5 gigabyte machines today moving to 2 gigabyte standard.

換句話說，今天的 1 到 1.5 GB 機器正在轉向 2 GB 標準。

[Bill Buton, Induce CNL Capital].

[比爾巴頓，誘導 CNL 資本]。

A quick question.

一個快速的問題。

What was the MLC mix the last quarter?

上個季度的 MLC 組合是什麼？

I don't have that right at my hands.

我沒有那個權利。

It is in excess of of 50%.

它超過 50%。

My second question is would the ASP drop have a lot to do with more shift to MLC versus SLC during the quarter?

我的第二個問題是，ASP 下降與本季度更多地轉向 MLC 還是 SLC 有很大關係嗎？

No, the ASPs for NAND are a little bit complicated because when we report them as dropping in the press release, we're blending in the NAND that we sell to our partner as something that approximates cost.

不，NAND 的 ASP 有點複雜，因為當我們在新聞稿中報告它們下降時，我們正在將我們出售給合作夥伴的 NAND 混合為接近成本的東西。

So our trade ASPs are actually up and the blended is down.

所以我們的貿易平均售價實際上是上升的，而混合的卻是下降的。

I think we have time for one last call please.

我想我們有時間打最後一個電話。

Bill Dezellem, Tieton Capital Management.

Bill Dezellem，Tieton 資本管理公司。

We have a couple of questions.

我們有幾個問題。

First of all, circling back to the Image Sensor market, you had mentioned that at some point in the future it may be cost-effective for the industry to shift to 300 mm.

首先，回到圖像傳感器市場，您曾提到，在未來的某個時候，行業轉向 300 毫米可能具有成本效益。

But not thinking about cost, but thinking about the product quality, is there any improvement, or opportunities for improving, pixel density or anything interesting on that front that may take place when 300 mm is running Image Sensors?

但不是考慮成本，而是考慮產品質量，當 300 mm 運行圖像傳感器時，是否有任何改進或改進的機會、像素密度或在這方面可能發生的任何有趣的事情？

I don't think it is today.

我不認為是今天。

I think that that has to do with primarily advancing the process technology, and actually you can advance the process technology from where Image Sensors are today equally as well on both 200 or 300 mm.

我認為這主要與工藝技術的進步有關，實際上，您可以從今天的圖像傳感器在 200 或 300 毫米上同等地推進工藝技術。

That is where you'll primarily be able to get I think advantage in the -- think of it as the qualitative measurement of the pixel performance and Image Sensor performance.

這就是你主要能夠獲得我認為優勢的地方 - 將其視為像素性能和圖像傳感器性能的定性測量。

There's nothing inherent at the moment that has 300 mm over 200 mm.

目前沒有什麼固有的東西有 300 毫米超過 200 毫米。

But I do think eventually it will come down to a cost equation.

但我確實認為最終它會歸結為成本等式。

And as you advance the process technology itself, ultimately you won't be able to have 200 mm equipment if that won't do it, because the geometries will get below what really is out there in the mass market for the equipment.

隨著工藝技術本身的進步，如果不這樣做，最終您將無法擁有 200 毫米的設備，因為幾何尺寸將低於該設備的大眾市場的實際水平。

That is helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then secondarily on an entirely different topic, the restructuring last quarter you announced that you would begin a restructuring process that, if we remembered correctly, was going to take several quarters.

其次，關於一個完全不同的話題，上個季度的重組你宣布你將開始一個重組過程，如果我們沒記錯的話，這將需要幾個季度。

Would you please discuss what it was that you did in the fourth quarter, and what you still see remaining to be done?

請您討論一下您在第四季度做了什麼，以及您認為還有哪些工作要做？

And maybe how much of a benefit your existing actions have had, and excluding the charge that you announced in the quarter.

也許你現有的行動有多少好處，不包括你在本季度宣布的費用。

And what you would anticipate future actions to benefit?

您預計未來的行動會帶來什麼好處？

Of course, we aren't to try to quantify it in dollars for you, because we have stayed away from that in large part because it is unpredictable exactly how that shows up.

當然，我們不會試圖為你用美元來量化它，因為我們在很大程度上遠離了它，因為它究竟是如何出現的是不可預測的。

But I think you should think in terms of two different really categories, because we have to bifurcate it to some degree.

但我認為你應該考慮兩個不同的真正類別，因為我們必須在某種程度上將其分叉。

We have benefits that will show up in the cost of goods sold.

我們的好處將體現在所售商品的成本中。

And we will have benefits that will show up in the -- think of it as the overhaul overhead expenses.

我們將獲得收益，將其視為大修管理費用。

I am going to not really speak too much about the cost of goods sold, because that gets mixed in to the things that we do in terms of output, yields, etc.

我不會過多地談論銷售商品的成本，因為這會與我們在產出、產量等方面所做的事情混在一起。

And in terms of trying to streamline what we have more in the operations, and that will show up in the cost per bit measure report.

在嘗試簡化我們在操作中擁有的更多內容方面，這將顯示在每比特成本測量報告中。

In terms of the operating expenses, we have been pretty focused on the two pieces, which is the SG&A and the R&D.

在運營費用方面，我們一直非常關注兩個部分，即 SG&A 和 R&D。

Clearly we believe, as I noted at the last analyst conference, that we have to get competitive on our total overhead, operating expenses to the benchmarks that are out there in the industry.

正如我在上次分析師會議上指出的那樣，我們顯然相信，我們必須在總管理費用、運營費用方面與行業基準相比具有競爭力。

If you look at the benchmarks in the industry, those in combination need to be somewhere between realistically 14 to 16% of revenues.

如果您查看行業中的基準，這些基準加起來實際需要佔收入的 14% 到 16% 之間。

And it depends on whether the revenues are decreasing or increasing based on prices.

這取決於收入是根據價格減少還是增加。

So it moves around a little bit on you, but that is what needs to happen.

所以它會在你身上移動一點，但這就是需要發生的事情。

There are really kind of our parts to that.

這確實是我們的一部分。

And the simplest part is where you just have to simply not do things that maybe you were doing before that aren't as critical.

最簡單的部分是你只需要簡單地不做那些你之前可能做的事情並不那麼重要。

In other words, get focused on how you are expending that money.

換句話說，專注於你是如何花錢的。

But when it comes to personnel, there are really three things that happen there.

但說到人員，那裡確實發生了三件事。

There is position eliminations, which we have already spoken about to the media.

有職位淘汰，我們已經對媒體談過了。

There are things where we are trying to do outsourcing, which is in other words trying to change the business model, where someone might be more effective at than we are, more cost effective.

有些事情我們正在嘗試進行外包，換句話說就是試圖改變商業模式，在這些事情上有人可能比我們更有效，更具成本效益。

And another piece is continuing to move some of what we do in the U.S.

另一部分正在繼續推動我們在美國所做的一些事情。

to our other operations that exist elsewhere in the world.

我們在世界其他地方的其他業務。

Realistically the position eliminations have already taken place.

實際上，職位消除已經發生。

We had a restructuring charge this quarter for in large part that.

本季度我們有一項重組費用在很大程度上是因為。

There may be a little bit of that that we carry forward, but probably not a lot.

我們可能會推進其中的一點點，但可能不會很多。

And the rest of it is really round the outsourcing, or the moved to other operations around the world.

其餘的實際上是外包，或者轉移到世界各地的其他業務。

And it is going to -- it will take a couple of quarters for us to figure out what makes the most sense in terms of optimizing the model on outsourcing.

而且它會 - 我們需要幾個季度才能弄清楚在優化外包模型方面最有意義的事情。

And then actually the move to other operations around the world will probably be something more along the lines of 12 to 18 months, because as an example, we may have a particular package what we are doing in the U.S., but it is going to be and of life in six months or nine months.

然後實際上轉移到世界各地的其他業務可能會更接近 12 到 18 個月，因為作為一個例子，我們可能有我們在美國正在做的特定一攬子計劃，但它將是和六個月或九個月的壽命。

So doesn't really make a heck of a lot of sense to try to move that.

因此，嘗試移動它並沒有多大意義。

You just finish it out and let that transition when it is done.

您只需完成它並在完成後進行過渡。

That is helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thanks Bill.

謝謝比爾。

With that we would like to thank everyone for participating on that call today.

藉此，我們要感謝大家今天參加這次電話會議。

If you will please bear with me, I need to repeat the Safe Harbor protection language.

如果你能容忍我，我需要重複安全港保護語言。

During the course of this call we may have made forward-looking statements regarding the Company and the industry.

在本次電話會議期間，我們可能就公司和行業做出了前瞻性陳述。

These particular forward-looking statements, and all other statements that may have been made on this call that are not historical facts, are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially.

這些特定的前瞻性陳述，以及可能在本次電話會議上做出的所有其他非歷史事實的陳述，都受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，實際結果可能存在重大差異。

For information on the important factors that may cause actual results to differ materially, please refer to our filings with the SEC, including the Company's most recent 10-Q and 10-K.

有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的重要因素的信息，請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件，包括公司最近的 10-Q 和 10-K。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

This concludes today's Micron Technology's fourth quarter and fiscal year end 2007 financial release conference call.

今天的美光科技公司 2007 年第四季度和財年末財務發布電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。