Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Please stand by, your meeting is about to begin.

    請稍候,您的會議即將開始。

  • Greetings, and welcome to the first-quarter 2026 Meritage Homes analyst call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    各位好,歡迎參加 Meritage Homes 2026 年第一季分析師電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意,今天的會議將被錄音。(接線員指示)

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Emily Todano. VP of Investor Relations and External Communications. Please go ahead.

    現在我想將電話會議交給 Emily Todano。投資人關係與對外溝通副總裁。請開始。

  • Emily Tadano - Vice President of Investor Relations and ESG

    Emily Tadano - Vice President of Investor Relations and ESG

  • Thank you, Operator. Good morning and welcome to our analyst call to discuss our first quarter 2026 results. We issued the press release yesterday after the market closed. You can find it along with the slides we'll refer to during this call on our website at investors.meritagehomes.com or by selecting the Investor Relations link at the bottom of our homepage.

    謝謝您,接線員。各位早安,歡迎參加我們的分析師電話會議,討論 2026 年第一季業績。我們已於昨日收盤後發布新聞稿。您可在我們的網站 investors.meritagehomes.com 上找到新聞稿及本次會議將引用的簡報,或在我們首頁底部點選「投資人關係」連結。

  • Please refer to slide 2, cautioning you that our statements during this call, as well as in the earnings release and accompanying slides, contain forward-looking statements. Those and any other projections represent the current opinions of management, which are subject to change at any time, and we assume no obligation to update them.

    請參閱第 2 頁投影片,提醒各位:我們在本次電話會議中的陳述,以及財報新聞稿與隨附投影片中的內容,均包含前瞻性陳述。這些以及任何其他預測均代表管理層目前的觀點,可能隨時變更,且我們不承擔更新之義務。

  • Any forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain. Our actual results may be materially different than our expectations due to a wide variety of risk factors, which we have identified and listed on this slide, as well as in our earnings release and most recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically our 2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K.

    任何前瞻性陳述本質上都具有不確定性。由於多種風險因素,我們的實際結果可能與預期存在重大差異;這些風險因素已在本頁投影片以及我們的財報新聞稿與近期向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中加以辨識並列示,特別是我們的 2025 年 Form 10-K 年度報告。

  • We have also provided a reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our earnings release as compared to their closest related GAAP measures.

    我們亦提供了財報新聞稿中提及之若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標,與其最接近之 GAAP 指標之調節表。

  • With us today to discuss our results are Steve Hilton, Executive Chairman; Philippe Lord, CEO; and Hilla Sferruzza, Executive Vice President and CFO of Meritage Homes. We expect today's call to last about an hour. A replay will be available on our website later today.

    今天與我們一同討論業績的有:執行董事長 Steve Hilton、執行長 Philippe Lord,以及 Meritage Homes 執行副總裁兼財務長 Hilla Sferruzza。我們預期今天的電話會議約為一小時。稍晚今天將可在我們網站上收聽重播。

  • I'll now turn it over to Mr. Hilton. Steve?

    現在我把時間交給 Hilton 先生。Steve?

  • Steven Hilton - Executive Chairman of the Board

    Steven Hilton - Executive Chairman of the Board

  • Thank you, Emily. Welcome to everyone joining today's call. Today, I begin with a brief overview of market trends and highlight our first quarter results. Philippe will then discuss our strategy and provide an operational update. Finally, Hilla will review our financial performance and share our 2026 forward-looking guidance.

    謝謝你,Emily。歡迎各位加入今天的電話會議。今天我將先簡要概述市場趨勢,並重點說明我們第一季的業績。接著 Philippe 將討論我們的策略並提供營運更新。最後,Hilla 將回顧我們的財務表現並分享 2026 年前瞻性指引。

  • During 2026, we were cautiously optimistic that lower interest rates and pent-up demand would translate into a solid performance for homebuilders, balanced by more muted volatility. As you well know, a few weeks into the year, many of our markets were impacted by a severe winter storm where sales activities were halted for several days.

    進入 2026 年時,我們對於較低利率與累積需求可望帶動建商穩健表現抱持審慎樂觀,同時預期波動將較為溫和。如各位所知,年初幾週內,我們多個市場受到嚴重冬季風暴影響,銷售活動一度停擺數日。

  • As we were starting to recover from the lost days of sales, military operations in Iran commenced at the end of February, increasing interest rates, gas prices and inflation, all of which negatively impacted consumer confidence. Despite these challenges, our first quarter 2026 sales orders totaled 3,664, 5% below last year's first quarter, as our slower absorption pace was almost fully offset by our increasing community count.

    當我們正開始從流失的銷售天數中恢復之際,2 月底伊朗的軍事行動展開,推升利率、油價與通膨,進而對消費者信心造成負面影響。儘管面臨這些挑戰,我們 2026 年第一季銷售訂單總數為 3,664 戶,較去年第一季下降 5%;由於去化速度放緩,幾乎被社區數量增加所抵銷。

  • While we still believe that long-term fundamentals for the homeowner industry are strong, we also acknowledge that the current market conditions are causing potential homebuyers to hesitate and that capturing demand for the near-term will require higher-than-anticipated use of incentives.

    雖然我們仍相信住宅建築產業的長期基本面強勁,但也承認目前市場狀況使潛在購屋者趨於觀望,而在短期內要掌握需求,將需要比原先預期更高幅度地運用銷售激勵措施。

  • Looking to our operations, our 60-day closing guarantee, available supply of new completed spec inventory, and year over year improved cycle times contributed to another quarter with exceptional backlog conversion rate of 254%.

    就營運而言,我們的 60 天交屋保證、充足的新完工樣品屋(spec)庫存供給,以及年對年改善的建造週期時間,促成了本季再次達成 254% 的卓越在手訂單轉換率。

  • We delivered 2,967 homes and home closing revenue of $1.1 billion this quarter. However, the slower start to the spring selling season and the increased incentives resulted in home closing gross margin of 17.5% and diluted EPS of $0.82 a share. As of March 31, 2026, our book value per share increased 6% year over year.

    本季我們交付 2,967 戶住宅,住宅交屋營收為 11 億美元。然而,春季銷售旺季開局較慢,加上激勵措施增加,使住宅交屋毛利率為 17.5%,稀釋後每股盈餘(EPS)為 0.82 美元。截至 2026 年 3 月 31 日,我們每股帳面價值年增 6%。

  • And with that, I'll now turn it over to Philippe.

    接下來我把時間交給 Philippe。

  • Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Steve. Given the current uncertainty in the macro climate, I am proud of the Mayor's team for navigating these choppy waters. We started the year with 336 active communities which we then grew to 345 by March 31, another company record. In the near-term, we expect total volume and top-line results will largely be driven by increased community count, not higher per-store absorptions.

    謝謝你,Steve。鑑於總體環境目前的不確定性,我為 Meritage 團隊能在這些顛簸的局勢中穩健前行感到自豪。我們以 336 個在營社區開啟新年度,並於 3 月 31 日增至 345 個,再創公司紀錄。短期內,我們預期總量與營收(top-line)表現主要將由社區數量增加所驅動,而非單店去化率提升。

  • Our first quarter 2026 ending community count of 345 was up 19% year over year compared to 290 at March 31, 2025, and up 3% sequentially compared to 336 at December 31, 2025. During the quarter, we brought on 40 new communities throughout all of our regions. We reiterate our expectations of 5% to 10% full-year community count growth for 2026. We continue to lean into our strategy in this competitive market. Through our 60-day closing guarantee, move-in-ready homes and strong realtor engagement, we offer certainty and consistency to our customers.

    我們 2026 年第一季期末社區數為 345 個,較 2025 年 3 月 31 日的 290 個年增 19%,亦較 2025 年 12 月 31 日的 336 個季增 3%。本季我們在所有區域共新增 40 個社區。我們重申 2026 年全年社區數成長 5% 至 10% 的預期。在此競爭激烈的市場中,我們持續深化既定策略。透過 60 天交屋保證、可立即入住的住宅,以及與房仲的強力互動,我們為客戶提供確定性與一致性。

  • Despite the current headwinds that Steve mentioned, we believe that long-term demand remains supported by favorable demographics and an undersupply of affordable homes in the US, and when demand normalizes, our strategy and increased store count will provide a competitive advantage and allow us to increase our market share.

    儘管面臨 Steve 所提及的逆風,我們仍相信長期需求將持續受到有利人口結構與美國可負擔住宅供給不足的支撐;當需求回歸常態時,我們的策略與增加的門店(社區)數將帶來競爭優勢,並使我們得以提升市占率。

  • In volatile times, we believe keeping a strong balance sheet and a critical focus on capital allocation will place us on a solid footing when the market stabilizes. Once again, we intentionally stepped up our share buybacks, repurchasing $130 million worth of common shares in Q1, which was above our previously announced target of $100 million in quarterly programmatic spend in 2026, taking advantage of the significant discount to intrinsic value for our share price.

    在波動時期,我們相信維持強健的資產負債表並嚴格聚焦資本配置,將使我們在市場趨於穩定時站穩腳步。我們再次有意提高庫藏股回購力道,第一季回購普通股 1.30 億美元,高於先前公布 2026 年每季例行性回購支出 1.00 億美元的目標,藉此把握股價相對內在價值存在顯著折價的機會。

  • Additionally, we increased our dividend 12% to $0.48 per share. We will continue to see balance between growth and shareholder returns given the current market backdrop.

    此外,我們將股利提高 12% 至每股 0.48 美元。在目前的市場背景下,我們將持續在成長與股東報酬之間取得平衡。

  • Now turning to slide 4. First quarter 2026 orders were 5% lower year over year, primarily due to an 18% decline in average resorb space, which was mostly offset by a 17% increase in average community count. The cancellation rate of 11% remained slightly below the historical average of mid to high 10s as we benefit from a quick sale to close process.

    接著請看第 4 頁投影片。2026 年第一季訂單年減 5%,主要因平均去化速度下降 18%,但大致被平均社區數增加 17% 所抵銷。取消率為 11%,仍略低於歷史平均的約 10% 中段至高段水準,這得益於我們快速的從銷售到交屋流程。

  • Our first quarter 2026 average absorption pace was 3.6% compared to 4.4% in the prior year. This quarter, we again committed to finding the right balance between velocity and margin in the current macroeconomic environment and did not pursue four net sales per month where community-level market dynamics would not support it.

    我們 2026 年第一季平均去化速度為 3.6%,相較去年同期為 4.4%。本季我們再次致力於在目前總體經濟環境下,在銷售速度與毛利之間取得適當平衡;對於社區層級的市場動態無法支持的情況,我們並未追求每月 4 戶的淨銷售目標。

  • While other long-term -- while over the long-term, we strive to be a four net sales per month in all markets as we believe we best leverage our fixed cost at that volume. In geographies where demand is meaningfully inelastic due to affordability or competitive tensions, we moderated our pace to avoid further deterioration to margins to ensure we are optimizing the underlying value of our land.

    雖然在其他長期情境下——從長期來看,我們力求在所有市場達到每月四戶的淨銷售量,因為我們相信在該銷量水準下能最有效地發揮固定成本的槓桿效益。在因可負擔性或競爭緊張而使需求明顯缺乏彈性的地區,我們放緩推進速度,以避免毛利率進一步惡化,並確保我們正在最佳化土地的內在價值。

  • ASP on orders this quarter of $382,000 was down 5% from prior year due to an increased use of incentives and discounts, as well as geographical mix shifting from the higher ASP West region into lower ASP East region.

    本季訂單的平均售價(ASP)為382,000美元,較去年同期下降5%,主因為更頻繁使用獎勵措施與折扣,以及地理組合由ASP較高的西部地區轉向ASP較低的東部地區。

  • We saw a nice uptick in March, even though it wasn't quite as strong as typical spring selling season. After a slow start, April is feeling the same as March. Consumer psychology remains fragile and can be driven by daily news announcements, but we still believe that pent-up demand will materialize once macroeconomic conditions stabilize.

    我們在3月看到不錯的回升,儘管強度仍不及典型的春季銷售旺季。在開局偏慢之後,4月的感受與3月相近。消費者心理仍然脆弱,可能會受到每日新聞公告的影響,但我們仍相信,一旦總體經濟環境穩定,累積的被壓抑需求將會釋放。

  • Moving to the regional level trends on slide 5. As always, sales performance was driven by local market conditions in the first quarter. While all markets required additional incentives, in some markets such as Dallas, Houston and Phoenix, consumer demand was comparatively more elastic, where incremental volume was achievable with only small incremental incentives. Meanwhile, other markets such as Austin, parts of Florida and Charlotte continue to be tougher selling environments.

    接著看投影片5的區域層級趨勢。一如往常,第一季的銷售表現主要由各地市場狀況所驅動。雖然所有市場都需要額外的獎勵措施,但在達拉斯、休士頓與鳳凰城等部分市場,消費者需求相對更具彈性,只需小幅增加獎勵措施即可取得額外銷量。同時,奧斯汀、佛羅里達部分地區以及夏洛特等市場仍屬較難銷售的環境。

  • Turning to slide 6. We've been right-sizing our starts pace and WIP inventory to align with our faster cycle times. We maintained a sub-110 calendar day construction schedule for the fourth straight quarter, allowing us to carry less home inventory without constraining availability to meet consumer demand and preferences.

    接著看投影片6。我們一直在調整開工節奏與在建工程(WIP)庫存,以配合我們更快的週期時間。我們連續第四個季度將施工工期維持在110個日曆天以下,使我們能在不限制供給以滿足消費者需求與偏好的情況下,持有較少的成屋庫存。

  • In Q1, we moderated starts to approximately 2,500 homes, 30% less than last year's Q1 and 6% lower than Q4. We traditionally aligned our starts pace with our sales pace, but due to faster cycle times and the need to work through some inventory in certain locations reduced our starts pace this quarter.

    在第一季,我們將開工量調整至約2,500戶,較去年第一季減少30%,較第四季下降6%。我們傳統上會讓開工節奏與銷售節奏一致,但由於週期時間加快,以及需要在部分地點消化一些庫存,本季我們降低了開工節奏。

  • We expect our go-forward starts pace to more closely align with our sales expectations as we progress throughout the year. With nearly 70% of Q1 closings also sold during this quarter, our backlog conversion rate was 254%.

    我們預期,隨著年度推進,我們未來的開工節奏將更貼近我們的銷售預期。由於第一季交屋中近70%亦是在本季售出,我們的積壓訂單轉換率為254%。

  • As a result, our ending backlog declined 7% year over year from approximately 2000 as of March 31, 2025, to approximately 1,900 homes as of March 31, 2026. We reiterate our long-term backlog conversion target of 175% to 200% as we expect to carry fewer fair specs in the future.

    因此,截至2026年3月31日,我們期末積壓訂單約為1,900戶,較截至2025年3月31日約2,000戶的水準年減7%。我們重申長期積壓訂單轉換率目標為175%至200%,因為我們預期未來將持有較少的投機建案(spec)。

  • Internally, we look at our inventory as the combined total specs and backlog. Because more than half of our deliveries consistently come from inter-quarter sales since we began our new strategy six quarters ago. We had around 6,600 spec and backlogged units at March 31, 2026, 25% less than the approximate 8,800 units we had at March 31, 2025.

    在內部,我們將庫存視為投機建案(spec)與積壓訂單的合計。因為自六個季度前開始推行新策略以來,我們的交屋量有一半以上一貫來自跨季度銷售。截至2026年3月31日,我們約有6,600戶投機建案與積壓單位,較截至2025年3月31日約8,800戶減少25%。

  • We ended the quarter with approximately 4,700 spec homes, down 30% from approximately 6,800 specs in the prior year and down 19% sequentially from Q4. The 14 specs per store this quarter was the lowest level since early 2022, but appropriately aligned with our current absorption targets.

    本季末我們約有4,700戶投機建案(spec)成屋,較去年同期約6,800戶下降30%,較第四季環比下降19%。本季每家門店14戶spec,為自2022年初以來最低水準,但與我們目前的去化目標相符。

  • This translated to a little under four months supply, intentionally at the low end of target of four to six months supply specs due to the slower demand expectations and improved cycle times. Comparatively, in the first quarter of 2025, we had 23 specs per store or five months of supply.

    這相當於略低於四個月的供給量;考量需求預期較慢且週期時間改善,我們刻意將spec供給維持在四至六個月目標區間的低端。相較之下,2025年第一季我們每家門店有23戶spec,約為五個月供給量。

  • Although our completed specs units decreased 17% year over year, our completed SPECs as a percent of total specs were 46% at March 31, 2026, down from 50% in the fourth quarter of 2025, still above our target of approximately one-third completed specs . We will continue to focus on bringing this ratio down in Q2.

    雖然我們已完工的spec單位年減17%,但截至2026年3月31日,已完工spec占總spec的比例為46%,低於2025年第四季的50%,仍高於我們約三分之一已完工spec的目標。我們將在第二季持續聚焦於降低此比例。

  • With that, I will now turn it over to Hilla to walk through our financial results.

    接下來,我將把時間交給Hilla,請她帶大家回顧我們的財務結果。

  • Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Phillippe. Let's turn to slide 7 and cover our Q1 results in more detail. First quarter 2026 home closing revenue of $1.1 billion was 17% lower than prior year due to 13% lower closing volume and a 5% decrease in ASP on closings, reflecting a tougher demand environment this quarter. As Phillippe noted, with nearly 70% closings also sold in the current quarter, the events impacting Q1 performance are already mostly reflected in our P&L, while our closings and revenue reflects our intentional decision to limit incremental incentives and focus on both margin and pace, overall ASP and closings were still impacted by the increased use of incentives as well as the geographic mix shift towards the East region.

    謝謝你,Phillippe。我們看投影片7,更詳細說明第一季的結果。2026年第一季住宅交屋營收為11億美元,較去年同期下降17%,主因交屋量下降13%以及交屋ASP下降5%,反映本季需求環境更具挑戰。如Phillippe所提,因為近70%的交屋亦是在本季售出,影響第一季表現的事件多數已反映在我們的損益表中;同時,雖然我們的交屋與營收反映了我們刻意限制額外獎勵措施、並同時聚焦毛利與節奏的決策,但整體ASP與交屋仍受到更高的獎勵措施使用,以及地理組合向東部地區移動的影響。

  • For closing gross margin of 17.5% for the quarter was 400 bps lower than prior year's 22% as a result of the increased use of incentives, higher lot costs and lost leverage, all of which were partially offset by improved direct costs, decreased compensation expense and faster cycle times.

    本季交屋毛利率為17.5%,較去年同期的22%下降400個基點,原因是獎勵措施使用增加、地塊成本較高以及槓桿效益下降;上述影響部分被直接成本改善、薪酬費用下降以及週期時間加快所抵銷。

  • First quarter 2026 home closing gross margin included $2.4 million of real estate inventory impairment and $1.4 million in terminated land a walkaway charges compared to no impairment and $1.4 million in terminated land deal walkaway charges in the prior year, coupled with about 20 bps from lost leverage unanticipated higher closing revenue. These impairments also impacted margins by about 30 bps. Our current land is primarily comprised of higher-cost land vintages basis from 2022 through 2024 and will continue to negatively impact margins in 2026.

    2026年第一季住宅交屋毛利率包含240萬美元的不動產存貨減損,以及140萬美元的終止土地交易(walkaway)費用;相較去年同期沒有減損,且同樣有140萬美元的終止土地交易(walkaway)費用,另加上約20個基點來自槓桿效益下降與未預期較高的交屋營收。這些減損亦使毛利率約降低30個基點。我們目前的土地主要由2022年至2024年的較高成本土地批次(basis)構成,並將在2026年持續對毛利率造成負面影響。

  • Based on what we're seeing in the market today, we expect some margin relief will start at the tail end of 2027, and due to some lower land basis and land development costs we have recently started to experience. In Q1, we had direct cost savings of nearly 5% per square foot on a year over year basis as we were able to flow to the income statement, the lower costs from our extensive vendor negotiations,

    根據我們目前在市場上看到的情況,我們預期毛利率的部分緩解將在2027年末開始出現,原因是我們近期開始受惠於較低的土地成本基礎與土地開發成本。第一季,我們每平方英尺的直接成本年減近5%,因為我們得以將透過廣泛供應商談判取得的較低成本反映至損益表。

  • However, lumber costs have started to trend higher this quarter, and as a result of the Iran conflict, we are monitoring any potential long-term inflationary impact on oil prices. Although we do not anticipate a notable material gross margin impact this year, our long-term gross margin target remains at 22.5% to 23.5% in a normalized market when incentives and interest rates stabilize near historical averages.

    然而,本季木材成本已開始走高;此外,受伊朗衝突影響,我們正監控油價可能帶來的任何長期通膨影響。雖然我們不預期今年會對材料毛利率造成顯著影響,但在獎勵措施與利率回到接近歷史平均並趨於穩定的常態化市場中,我們的長期毛利率目標仍為22.5%至23.5%。

  • SG&A as a percentage of home closing revenue in the first quarter of 2026 was 11.8% compared to 11.3% for the first quarter of 2025 despite curtailing discretionary spend. Although SG&A dollars declined year over year, we lost leverage on lower home closing revenue and had to spend more sales and marketing dollars to earn each sale.

    2026年第一季,SG&A占住宅交屋營收的比例為11.8%,相較2025年第一季的11.3%有所上升,儘管我們已縮減非必要支出。雖然SG&A金額年減,但由於住宅交屋營收下降導致槓桿效益減弱,且為取得每筆銷售我們必須投入更多銷售與行銷費用。

  • As we look specifically at external commission costs, we believe our strategic focus on partnering with the external broker is a key digger to our success. Our broker relationships remain strong with co-broke percentages consistently in the low 90% range and a healthy percentage of our total sales volume generated by repeat sales from our realtors, all while maintaining our external broker commission cost relatively flat as a percentage of home closing revenue year over year.

    就外部佣金成本而言,我們認為將策略重點放在與外部經紀商合作,是我們成功的關鍵驅動因素。我們與經紀商的合作關係依然穩固,共同經紀(co-broke)比例持續維持在90%出頭的低位區間,且我們總銷售量中有相當健康的比例來自房仲的重複成交;同時,我們也使外部經紀商佣金成本占房屋交屋收入的比例,年對年維持相對持平。

  • With our continued investment in technology, we are driving long-term improvement through back-office automation. This will position us to operate more efficiently as closing volumes increase, supporting our continued commitment to a long-term SG&A target of 9.5%.

    隨著我們持續投資科技,我們正透過後台自動化推動長期改善。這將使我們在交屋量增加時能更有效率地營運,並支持我們持續致力於長期SG&A目標9.5%。

  • The first quarter's effective income tax rate was 23.7% this year compared to 23.3% for the first quarter of 2025. We expect a minimal impact in the second half of 2026 after the elimination of the energy tax credit program at June 30 as our eligibility for such credit was significantly reduced starting in 2025 when the higher construction threshold went into effect. Overall, lower home closing revenue and gross profit led to a 51% year over year decrease in first quarter 2026 diluted EPS to $0.82 from $1.69 in 2025.

    今年第一季的有效所得稅率為23.7%,相較於2025年第一季的23.3%。由於能源稅額抵免計畫將於6月30日取消,且我們自2025年起在較高的建造門檻生效後,取得該抵免的資格已大幅降低,因此我們預期2026年下半年影響有限。整體而言,較低的房屋交屋收入與毛利,導致2026年第一季稀釋後每股盈餘(EPS)年對年下降51%,由2025年的1.69美元降至0.82美元。

  • Before I move on to the balance sheet, I wanted to cover our customers' first quarter credit metrics. As expected, FICO scores, DTIs and LTVs remain consistent with our historical averages. Despite market volatility, we haven't seen much movement in these metrics over the last year or two, validating our belief the hesitation in the market is at least partially a psychological decision versus a purely financial one.

    在我轉到資產負債表之前,我想先說明我們客戶第一季的信用指標。如預期,FICO分數、負債收入比(DTI)與貸款價值比(LTV)仍與我們的歷史平均一致。儘管市場波動,我們在過去一、兩年並未看到這些指標有太大變動,這也驗證了我們的看法:市場的猶豫至少部分是心理層面的決策,而非純粹財務因素所致。

  • On to slide 8. Our balance sheet remains healthy at March 31, 2026, with cash of $767 million, nothing drawn under our credit facility and a net debt to cap of 17.4%. As a reminder, the ceiling for net debt-to-cap ratio remains in the mid-20% range. As we've been more selective with land deals and timing of land development, our land spend was down 30% year over year this quarter, totaling $326 million in Q1. Given current market conditions, we are reiterating our forecasted land acquisition and development spend of up to $2 billion in 2026.

    接著看第8頁。截至2026年3月31日,我們的資產負債表仍然健康,現金為7.67億美元,循環信貸額度未動用,淨負債/資本比為17.4%。提醒一下,淨負債/資本比的上限仍在20%中段區間。由於我們在土地交易與土地開發時點上更為審慎,本季土地支出年對年下降30%,第一季合計為3.26億美元。考量目前市場狀況,我們重申2026年土地收購與開發支出預估最高可達20億美元。

  • We returned $162 million of capital to shareholders via buybacks and dividends this quarter, up from $76 million in the same period last year. We bought back over 1.8 million shares in the first quarter or 2.7% of shares outstanding at the beginning of the year for $130 million, nearly 3 times more than Q1 of 2025 as we believe this was the right use of our cash under current market conditions.

    本季我們透過庫藏股回購與股利,向股東返還資本1.62億美元,高於去年同期的7,600萬美元。第一季我們回購超過180萬股,約占年初流通在外股數的2.7%,回購金額為1.30億美元;由於我們認為在目前市場環境下這是現金的適當運用,該回購規模幾乎是2025年第一季的3倍。

  • We repurchased the shares this quarter at an average 6% discount to book value. With $384 million remaining available under the repurchase program, we reiterate our plan to programmatically buying back $100 million in shares for each remaining quarter in 2026, assuming no additional material market shifts.

    本季我們回購股份的平均價格較帳面價值折價6%。在回購計畫下仍有3.84億美元可用額度,我們重申計畫於2026年剩餘每一季以程式化方式回購1億美元股份,前提是市場不再出現額外重大變化。

  • We increased our quarterly cash dividend 12% year over year to $0.48 per share in 2026 from $0.43 per share in 2025. Our cash dividend this quarter totaled $32 million. For the first quarter of 2026, the $162 million of capital we returned to shareholders was 295% of our quarterly earnings.

    我們將2026年的季度現金股利年對年提高12%,由2025年的每股0.43美元提高至每股0.48美元。本季現金股利合計為3,200萬美元。以2026年第一季而言,我們返還股東的1.62億美元資本相當於本季盈餘的295%。

  • Slide 9. In the first quarter of 2026, we secured almost 400 net new lots under control, which included the impact of about 850 terminated lots. In the first quarter of 2025, we put nearly 2,200 net new lots under control.

    第9頁。2026年第一季,我們新增控制近400個淨新地塊,其中包含約850個終止地塊的影響。2025年第一季,我們新增控制近2,200個淨新地塊。

  • As of March 31, 2026, we owned or controlled a total of about 75,500 lots, equating to 5.2 year supply of the last 12 months closings. In today's market conditions, we believe that this is the right amount of the needed year supply of lots to meet our growth targets.

    截至2026年3月31日,我們擁有或控制的地塊總數約為75,500個,約相當於過去12個月交屋量的5.2年供給。在當前市場條件下,我們認為這樣的地塊年供給量,符合達成我們成長目標所需的適當水準。

  • We also had approximately 14,600 lots, though we're still undergoing diligence at the end of the quarter, which is another potential one-year supply in the pipeline that we can choose to control. When it comes to financing land purchases, we target around 40% option lots. About 70% of our total lot inventory at March 31, 2026 was owned and 30% options compared to prior year, where we had a 62% owned inventory and then 38% option lot position.

    我們在季末另有約14,600個地塊仍在進行盡職調查,這是管線中另一個潛在的一年供給量,我們可選擇將其納入控制。在土地購置融資方面,我們目標約40%為選擇權地塊(option lots)。截至2026年3月31日,我們地塊總庫存約70%為自有、30%為選擇權;相較前一年為62%自有庫存、38%選擇權地塊部位。

  • As we shift more land to off balance sheet, we are doing so very slowly and cautiously remaining hyper-focused on margin and IRR and only considering land yields with sufficient margin to absorb the additional costs as we do not believe that all or most land today belongs off book. While we have set 40% of our initial off-book target, our actual percentage will be solely turned higher or lower by the underlying financial metrics of each deal and its ability to appropriately bear the burden of the incremental cost.

    隨著我們將更多土地移至表外處理,我們推進得非常緩慢且審慎,並高度聚焦於毛利與內部報酬率(IRR),只考慮具備足夠毛利、能吸收新增成本的土地收益率,因為我們不認為現今所有或大多數土地都適合表外處理。雖然我們設定初始表外目標為40%,但實際比例將完全取決於每筆交易的基礎財務指標,以及其是否能適當承擔增量成本的負擔,進而上調或下調。

  • Finally, I'll direct you to slide 10. Based on current market conditions, we are updating our guidance for full year 2026 on closing volume and revenue to at or within 5% of full year 2025 results. For Q2 2026, we are projecting total home closings between 3,650 and 3,900 units, home closing revenue of $1.37 billion to $1.47 billion, pump closing gross margin around 18%, an effective tax rate of 24.5% to 25% and diluted EPS in the range of $1.18 to $1.46.

    最後,請看第10頁。基於目前市場狀況,我們更新2026年全年交屋量與營收指引,預期將達到或落在2025年全年結果的±5%以內。對於2026年第二季,我們預估總交屋戶數介於3,650至3,900戶,房屋交屋收入為13.7億至14.7億美元,交屋毛利率約18%,有效稅率為24.5%至25%,稀釋後EPS介於1.18至1.46美元。

  • With that, I'll turn it back over to Phillippe.

    接下來我把時間交回給Phillippe。

  • Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Hilla. In closing, please turn to slide 11. Before we conclude, it's worth reinforcing what sets Meritage apart. We are a top five homebuilder focused on spec building that is supported by streamlined operations.

    謝謝你,Hilla。在結語部分,請翻到第11頁。在我們結束之前,值得再次強調Meritage的差異化之處。我們是前五大住宅建商之一,專注於投機建造(spec building),並由精簡的營運流程所支撐。

  • Our go-to-market strategy differences from peers and is anchored on three tenants, our 60-day closing guarantee, moving ready inventory and strong realtor engagement together, who we are and how we operate, give us a competitive advantage in the intel space to provide homebuyers, certainty and consistency.

    我們的上市策略與同業不同,並以三大支柱為核心:60天交屋保證、可立即入住的庫存,以及與房仲的強力互動;這些要素共同構成我們是誰以及我們如何營運,讓我們在資訊層面具備競爭優勢,為購屋者提供確定性與一致性。

  • Amid today's market backdrop, our priorities are central on balance sheet strength and disciplined capital allocation. We are maintaining a low net to debt to cap construction land deals off balance sheet where appropriate. This approach gives us flexibility to moderate land spend and accelerate the return of capital to shareholders through a combination of share buybacks and dividends.

    在當前市場背景下,我們的優先事項聚焦於資產負債表的強度與嚴謹的資本配置。我們維持較低的淨負債/資本比,並在適當情況下將建造用地交易移至表外。此作法讓我們能彈性調整土地支出,並透過股票回購與股利的組合,加速向股東返還資本。

  • We incur our strategy with our growing community count, faster cycle times and a disciplined cash commitment framework. We believe Meritage is well positioned to capture incremental market share as demand conditions improve and normalize and to continue creating long-term shareholder value.

    我們以不斷增加的社區數量、更快的週期時間,以及嚴謹的現金承諾框架來落實我們的策略。我們相信,隨著需求環境改善並回歸常態,Meritage已具備良好條件以取得額外市占,並持續創造長期股東價值。

  • With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for instructions on the Q&A. Operator?

    那麼,我現在把電話交給接線員,請其說明問答環節的指示。接線員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

    Wolfe Research 的 Trevor Allinson。

  • Trevor Allinson - Analyst

    Trevor Allinson - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. First one is on your spec count, which you noted a little lowest it's been in several years. I think we've heard other builders talk about a reduction in specs across the industry helping take some pressure off of margins here. So appreciating you guys operate a spec model. Are you seeing both your lower spec count and also kind of industry lower spec count is the market pressure here? And is that something you expect the support of the margins moving forward even if demand makes choppy?

    嗨,早安。謝謝讓我提問。第一個問題是關於你們的投機屋(spec)數量,你們提到這是幾年來的低點。我想我們也聽到其他建商談到,整個產業的投機屋減少,有助於減輕毛利率的壓力。所以也理解你們是以投機屋模式在運作。你們是否同時看到你們自身較低的投機屋數量,以及產業整體較低的投機屋數量,正在降低市場端的壓力?而且即便需求出現波動,你們是否預期這會在未來持續支撐毛利率?

  • Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Thanks, Trevor. I think that's absolutely the condition we're seeing. A lot of builders are either pivoting away from carrying as much inventory, finished inventory as they did before during COVID and supply chain environment and they're moving to reduce finished inventory, selling loans earlier in cycle. And then some folks are pivoting more to a BPO model, which is clearing out a lot of inventory in the market.

    是的。謝謝你,Trevor。我認為這確實就是我們看到的情況。許多建商正在轉向不再像以前在 COVID 與供應鏈環境期間那樣持有那麼多庫存、尤其是完工庫存;他們正著手降低完工庫存,並在開發週期更早階段就出售地塊。另外也有一些業者更轉向 BPO 模式,這正在清理市場上大量庫存。

  • So I think we saw across all of our markets, less finished inventory that we were competing with and we're optimistic as we move throughout the year, that creates a better environment for margin stability on a go-forward basis, specifically for our strategy where we are focused on continuing to build spec and carry them to a later stage.

    因此我認為,在我們所有市場中,我們所面對的競爭性完工庫存都變少了;我們也樂觀認為,隨著今年推進,這將為未來的毛利率穩定創造更好的環境,特別是對我們這種策略而言——我們專注於持續興建投機屋,並持有到較後期階段再出售。

  • Trevor Allinson - Analyst

    Trevor Allinson - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks. Absolutely. That's really very helpful. And then second one, you guys talked about your off-balance sheet portfolio. Can you talk about what portion of that portfolio is held by land banks versus more traditional land options or other structures. And then any detail on how those agreements are structured with an eye on your ability to walk away? And then just generally, your view on use of land bankers moving forward for your off-balance sheet needs. Thanks.

    好的,謝謝。完全理解。這真的很有幫助。第二個問題,你們談到資產負債表外的投資組合。能否談談其中有多少比例是由土地銀行(land banks)持有,相較於較傳統的土地選擇權或其他結構?另外也請提供一些協議結構的細節,特別是從你們能否選擇退出(walk away)的角度來看。最後更一般性地,你們對未來使用土地銀行來滿足資產負債表外需求的看法。謝謝。

  • Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, I can take that one. So about 38% of our total inventory control is off book. Of that, about one-third is with land bankers. So all in, only about 10% of our total land supply is with traditional land bankers at this point in time. As far as structure, we don't cost collateralize.

    好的,這題我來回答。我們整體的土地/庫存控制中,大約 38% 是表外(off book)。其中約三分之一是與土地銀行合作。因此合計來看,目前只有大約 10% 的總土地供給是透過傳統土地銀行。就結構而言,我們不做交叉擔保(cross-collateralize)。

  • So we always have the ability, if any deal go sideways to walkaway from that deal without maybe some other hooks and implications that would make us state in a transaction that doesn't structurally work or financially work any longer. So we're very cautious from that perspective. So the only thing at risk for us would be the deposit and any other ancillary costs.

    因此我們始終保有能力:如果任何交易出現問題,我們可以退出該交易,而不會有其他可能讓我們被迫留在一筆在結構上或財務上已不再可行的交易中的附帶條款與影響。所以從這個角度我們非常謹慎。因此我們唯一承擔的風險就是訂金以及任何其他附帶成本。

  • Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And the only thing I would add is, as Hilla said, it's a very small percentage with true lot financing. But because it's not cross collateralized, I think working through those deals on a one-by-one basis is much easier. We have had some scenarios that have gone back to our land bank finances and asked for some more time to stabilize the market, stabilize our inventory levels. And again, working on one deal creates more of an opportunity to do so.

    我唯一想補充的是,如 Hilla 所說,真正的地塊融資(lot financing)占比非常小。但因為沒有交叉擔保,我認為逐案處理這些交易要容易得多。我們確實遇過一些情境,回到我們的土地銀行融資方那裡,請求多一些時間來讓市場穩定、讓我們的庫存水位穩定。同樣地,一次只處理一筆交易,會更有機會做到這點。

  • Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. And I think we addressed this in our prepared remarks, because we're very selective at the get-go as to what deals even go off book, they typically have a little bit of breathing room on the margin versus having arbitrary targets where we're forcing deals off book to hit a percentage. So for us, the ability to work with our partners, our off book partners is pretty high since they understand the transaction and see the margin profile and are willing to work with us on terms if we need them.

    是的。我想我們在事先準備的講稿中也提到,因為我們在一開始就非常挑選哪些交易要放到表外;這些交易通常在毛利率上會比目標多一些緩衝,而不是設定任意目標、為了達到某個比例而硬把交易移到表外。因此對我們而言,與合作夥伴、也就是表外合作夥伴協作的彈性相當高,因為他們理解交易內容、也看得到毛利率輪廓,若我們需要調整條款,他們也願意與我們合作。

  • Trevor Allinson - Analyst

    Trevor Allinson - Analyst

  • Very helpful. Thanks for all the color and good luck moving forward.

    非常有幫助。謝謝提供這麼多細節,也祝你們接下來一切順利。

  • Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

    Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

  • Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst

    Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks very much, guys. I appreciate it. If I could follow up on the land bank question. Can you give us a sense for roughly what percent of your land bank deals you've been, you've extended your takedown schedules. And am I right in thinking that in a typical land bank deal, any individual land bank dealers to extend, let's say, six months that, that might drive roughly 100 basis point lower gross margin on the remaining loss versus the initial expected lot price?

    好的,非常感謝各位。我很感激。我想追問一下土地銀行的問題。你們能否大概說明,在你們的土地銀行交易中,有多少比例你們已經延長了分期提取(takedown)時程?另外,我的理解是否正確:在典型的土地銀行交易中,若某一筆土地銀行交易延長例如六個月,可能會使剩餘地塊相對於最初預期地塊價格的毛利率大約降低 100 個基點?

  • Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Stephen. So first part, again, we have such a small percentage of our land book is land banker lot financing. So even as you look at what percent of our deals required us to restructure. And when I see restructure, maybe we needed a quarter delay in the next take to buy sometimes to get to do some inventory or stabilize kind of margins or what not, for the most part, that was very small as well. Most of our deals are performing fine.

    謝謝你,Stephen。先回答第一部分,如前所述,我們土地庫存中屬於土地銀行地塊融資的比例非常小。因此即便你看有多少比例的交易需要我們重新調整。我所謂的調整,可能是我們需要把下一次提取/購買延後一季,有時是為了處理一些庫存或讓毛利率等狀況更穩定;整體而言,這樣的情況也非常少。我們大多數交易的表現都很好。

  • We're continuing to take back down, and we're moving through the inventory as we planned. As far as your other question, I think it's a little bit of an oversimplification. It really depends on the deal, how many lots are buying per quarter, the structure of the deal. In some cases, I think some land bankers are willing to actually give you a take for no carry just to keep you in the deal rather than taking back the lots and owning the loss. I think we're sort of in that environment today, at least with our folks.

    我們持續按計畫進行分期提取,也按原先規劃去化庫存。至於你另一個問題,我認為那有點過度簡化。這真的取決於交易本身:每季購買多少地塊、交易結構如何。在某些情況下,我認為有些土地銀行其實願意讓你延後提取而不收取持有成本(no carry),只是為了讓你留在交易裡,而不是把地塊收回去並自行承擔損失。我想我們目前的環境大致如此,至少就我們的合作方而言。

  • So it's just, it's hard to answer. It really depends on your relationship, and it depends on the deal. I guess if all things being equal, they were going to charge you for those delays. Your math might be closed. I don't know, Hilla, if you want to add anything to it?

    所以這題很難回答。它真的取決於你們的關係,也取決於交易本身。我想如果在其他條件都相同、而他們確實會對延後收費的情況下,你的計算可能差不多。我不確定——Hilla,你要補充嗎?

  • Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I mean, it depends what part of the cycle and how many assets you still have on book part of that math and, of course, what your interest rate is. But for us, when you look at it, good thing, bad things don't get better with age.

    是的。我的意思是,這取決於週期所處的位置、你帳上還有多少資產,當然也取決於你的利率水準。但對我們而言,從我們的角度看,好事壞事都不會因為時間而變得更好。

  • So if we're asking for sold, it's typically for us to rework a product lineup or to value engineer something we're not just holding and crossing our fingers and thinking something arbitrary is going to get better in three to six months. So again, that's kind of the beauty of being very selective as to what deals you're putting in an off-book structure in the first place.

    所以如果我們提出延後,通常是為了重新調整產品組合,或對某些項目做價值工程(value engineering);我們不是只是把它放著、祈禱,然後認為三到六個月後某些任意因素就會好轉。因此,再次強調,這就是一開始就非常挑選哪些交易要採用表外結構的好處。

  • But yes, I mean, there's definitely, if you can't work a free be, it's typically in to cost you whatever your interest burden is for that six months hold. So yeah, there needs to be an implication, but 100 bps a little heavy.

    但對,我的意思是,確實,如果你無法做一個免費的延長(free be),通常就會讓你付出相當於那六個月持有期間的利息負擔成本。所以是的,這需要有一些含意,但100個基點有點太重了。

  • Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst

    Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Appreciate that. Yeah. And I also appreciate your comments about how there's a human component to this. It's not all just simply math. I think that's an important point to make. If I could also talk about your long-term gross margin target of 22.5% to 23.5%, which obviously is where you weren't that long ago and is but something that's quite above where you are currently.

    好的。感謝你的說明。是的。我也感謝你提到這件事有人性的成分。不全然只是數學。我覺得這是個重要的觀點。如果我也可以談談你們長期毛利率目標22.5%到23.5%,很明顯那是不久前你們曾經達到的水準,但也確實高於你們目前的水準。

  • You've talked in the past, Hilla, about the importance of volume in achieving your level of gross margin. And so am I right to assume that, that long-term target is consistent with at least four per community absorption rate? Or do you think there's an opportunity to hit that gross margin level long term with a lower level of absorptions than you had envisioned in the past?

    Hilla,你過去談過,量(volume)對於達成你們毛利率水準的重要性。所以我是否可以假設,那個長期目標至少是以每個社區每月4筆的吸收率(absorption rate)為一致前提?或者你認為,長期而言,在比你過去設想更低的吸收水準下,也有機會達到那個毛利率水準?

  • Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Steve, I'll take part of that question. This is Phillippe. So I think it's a lot easier to get to our long-term goal around 22.5% at four net sales per month. We're just way more efficient at that level we leverage our fixed and variable overhead much more meaningfully. We're able to navigate cost, the cost, the vertical cost environment more effectively.

    謝謝,Steve,我先回答這個問題的一部分。我是Phillippe。所以我認為,在每月4筆淨銷售(net sales)的情況下,要達到我們約22.5%的長期目標容易得多。在那個水準下我們效率高很多,能更有意義地槓桿化(leverage)我們的固定與變動間接費用。我們也能更有效地應對成本、以及垂直整合成本環境。

  • So the path at four net sales per month is much easier. If we were to run it at something less than that, then the offset would have to be in margin, direct margin, which you might be able to hold on to your margins at a slower pace and try to drive it. So there is a path at 3.5, if you will, versus 4. But I think long term is the way to get there.

    因此,在每月4筆淨銷售的路徑要容易得多。如果我們以低於那個水準運行,那麼抵消就必須來自毛利、也就是直接毛利(direct margin);你或許可以在較慢的節奏下守住毛利並嘗試推動它。所以如果你願意的話,3.5相對於4,確實也有一條路徑。但我認為長期而言,4才是到達那裡的方式。

  • Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I think, Phillippe is exactly right. There's two components. The first is just absolute value -- absolute volume and the second is volume per store. We're much more efficient at 4-plus. So we definitely want that because costs at the local store level, the superintendent and the cost of running that location are leveraged better, but there's also costs at the division level that get better leverage period with volume.

    是的。我認為Phillippe說得完全正確。這裡有兩個組成要素。第一是絕對值——絕對量(absolute volume),第二是每家門店的量(volume per store)。在4以上我們效率高很多。所以我們確實希望達到那個水準,因為在當地門店層級的成本——工地主任(superintendent)以及營運該據點的成本——能被更好地攤提;同時在事業部(division)層級也有成本,隨著量的增加能在整體期間獲得更好的槓桿效益。

  • We think that there is an opportunity for both. Right now, the opportunity for us is at a higher store count. So hopefully, you'll see that improvement just between Q1 and Q2, right, the volume that we are guiding to on closing on Q2 is nicer than where we are today, and we guide to a higher margin than where we ended the quarter and part of that is going to be the incremental leverage. But once we get back to that 4 net sales per store average, there is another bump for us on incremental leveraging above that.

    我們認為兩者都有機會。就目前而言,我們的機會在於更高的門店數。所以希望你會看到僅在Q1到Q2之間就有改善;對吧,我們對Q2交屋(closing)的指引量比我們今天所在的水準更好,而我們指引的毛利率也高於本季結束時的水準,其中一部分將來自額外的槓桿效益。但一旦我們回到每店平均每月4筆淨銷售,那之上還會有另一段額外槓桿帶來的提升。

  • Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And we see our path from where we are to where we want to go both this year and the future years is really driven by the following things, but the volume, we have the higher store count, so we think we can get incremental volume, less inventory in the market to compete with, so a stronger pricing backdrop and then reducing our incentives over time, a lot of the incentives that are currently in the market are psychological. We're trying to convince folks that it's a good time to buy. It's part of affordability and part psychology. So we're optimistic that as long as nothing from the macro environment continues to erode, we can see a path there.

    而我們看到,從目前到我們想去的地方——不論是今年或未來幾年——主要由以下因素驅動:首先是量;我們有更高的門店數,所以我們認為可以取得增量的銷量;市場上的庫存更少、競爭壓力較小,因此定價環境更強;然後是隨時間推移降低我們的促銷/讓利(incentives),目前市場上很多incentives其實是心理層面的。我們正在試著說服大家現在是個適合買房的時機。這一部分是可負擔性(affordability),一部分是心理。所以我們樂觀地認為,只要總體環境沒有持續惡化,我們就能看到一條可行的路徑。

  • Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst

    Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst

  • Great. Appreciate it, guys. Thanks.

    很好。感謝各位。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alan Ratner, Zelman.

    Alan Ratner,Zelman。

  • Alan Ratner - Analyst

    Alan Ratner - Analyst

  • Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks, as always, for the details so far. First question on the margin guide, and I think you, Phillippe, kind of touched on it in Steve's question, but I just want to dig a little deeper. So immutably I was pleasantly surprised to see that you expect to hold margins roughly steady quarter over quarter. I would have thought just given kind of what we're hearing from other builders, what we're seeing in the macro environment that there might have been some additional pressure there, at least flowing through in 2Q.

    嗨,各位。早安。一如既往,謝謝你們到目前為止提供的細節。第一個問題關於毛利率指引;我想你,Phillippe,在Steve的問題裡有稍微提到,但我想再深入一點。坦白說,我很驚喜地看到你們預期毛利率大致能季對季持平。考量到我們從其他建商聽到的、以及我們在總體環境中看到的情況,我原本以為至少在2Q會有一些額外壓力反映出來。

  • So it sounds like some of that is top line leverage, but I'm curious if you feel like now that you've reset some of the absorption goals at least for the near term, whether the kind of 18% margin in the current backdrop is something that might be sustained through the year if market conditions remain fairly steady with where they are today.

    所以聽起來其中一部分來自營收端的槓桿效益,但我也好奇:既然你們至少在短期內已經重設了一些吸收目標,那麼在目前的背景下,約18%的毛利率是否有機會在今年內維持,如果市場狀況大致維持在今天的水準?

  • Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. A lot of questions in there that I'll answer all of them for you because they're all very good. I do think that, there's a couple of things we see that feel like it's forming sort of a potential floor. Now this is, again, I don't know what's going to happen geopolitically. I don't know what's going to happen with a lot of things that are outside of my control that can impact this.

    是的。你這裡面有很多問題,我會全部回答,因為都非常好。我確實認為,我們看到幾件事,感覺正在形成某種潛在的底部。當然,這又是,我不知道地緣政治會發生什麼事。我也不知道很多我無法控制、但可能影響這件事的因素會怎麼發展。

  • But in the industry, we see a couple of things. Number one, we see inventory levels stabilizing, which I think is really good for pricing stability and confidence for the consumer. When there's less inventory out there, I think consumers feel a little bit more urgency than when there's a lot out there. So I think that is helpful.

    但就產業而言,我們看到幾件事。第一,我們看到庫存水位正在趨於穩定,我認為這對價格穩定與消費者信心非常有利。當市場上的庫存較少時,我認為消費者會比庫存很多時更有急迫感。所以我覺得這是有幫助的。

  • I think the volume is critical. We have the highest community count we've ever had. We're projecting more community count growth through the rest of this year. And even at these slower absorption paces, we think we can get there and not have to give up more margin to get there. So we're optimistic about that.

    我認為量是關鍵。我們目前的社區數(community count)是史上最高。我們預期今年剩餘時間社區數還會繼續成長。即使在這些較慢的吸收速度下,我們也認為可以達到目標,而不必為了達到目標再犧牲更多毛利。所以我們對此感到樂觀。

  • And then look, in the beginning of this, of Q1, we actually started feeling better about things, the weather kind of threw us off, February was okay. We had the war in Iran and people took a step back in certain markets. But March was pretty good. So we started feeling like we had some stability and some predictability in the market. It's just really hard to tell every week, whether that's going to be something that's maintained and sustainable?

    再來你看,在這一切的開始、也就是Q1初期,我們其實開始對情況感覺更好;天氣有點打亂我們,2月還可以。我們遇到伊朗戰爭,人們在某些市場就先退一步觀望。但3月表現相當不錯。所以我們開始覺得市場有一些穩定性與可預測性。只是很難每週判斷,這是否能被維持並且具有可持續性?

  • Or there's going to be something else that drove the consumer off their game. But I feel a lot better about where inventory levels are, and I feel a lot better about the communities that we've opened and the opportunity those give us to gain volume throughout the year.

    或者可能會有其他因素讓消費者失去節奏。但我對目前的庫存水位感覺好多了,也對我們已開設的社區以及這些社區讓我們在全年提升銷量的機會感覺更有信心。

  • Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Two other points on margin, Alan, the first, and we talked about it a little bit on our last earnings call that as we continue to improve on our direct costs, as we work through our finished spec inventory, you're going to start to see even better direct costs coming through. So that's a benefit that you'll see starting in Q2 and continuing through the latter part of the year, obviously, all new communities are all with the new cost.

    關於毛利還有另外兩點,Alan,第一點是——我們在上一次財報電話會議也稍微談到——隨著我們持續改善直接成本、並逐步消化已完工的投機房(spec)庫存,你會開始看到更好的直接成本反映出來。因此,這項利多會從第二季開始顯現,並延續到今年下半年;當然,所有新開社區都會採用新的成本結構。

  • So the more volume we have from those, the better that piece is. And then just kind of doing math, if you look at our closings this quarter and what we're guiding to for next quarter, the back half of the year is going to be higher volume at our current projections. Even at the low point of the full year guidance that we provided. So again, that leveraging component that we're talking about is going to have an even more material impact for us through the back half of the year.

    所以,這些社區帶來的量越多,這一塊就會越好。另外,簡單算一下,如果你看我們本季的交屋量,以及我們對下季的指引,在目前的預測下,今年下半年將會是更高的交屋量。即使是在我們提供的全年指引區間低端也是如此。所以再一次,我們所談的槓桿效應,在今年下半年對我們的影響會更為顯著。

  • Alan Ratner - Analyst

    Alan Ratner - Analyst

  • Great. All right. Perfect. I appreciate all the detail there. Second question, I know you don't give specific cash flow guidance, but the last couple of years, cash has been a drag as you've been ramping the spec supply, as you've been gearing up for this very significant community count growth it feels like both of those are kind of hitting an inflection point here where spec inventory is coming down a little bit.

    很好。好。完美。我很感謝你提供這麼多細節。第二個問題,我知道你們不提供具體的現金流指引,但過去幾年,隨著你們拉升投機房(spec)供給、並為社區數量的大幅成長做準備,現金一直是拖累;看起來這兩件事現在都到了拐點,因為投機房庫存正在稍微下降。

  • Community count is still going up, but not at the same rate it was. Pretty strong cash flow in the first quarter, at least seasonally speaking. So can you give any guidance or color on where you expect the cash flow to shake out for the year? Are we past kind of the biggest burn period and maybe cash should start to improve even if earnings are under pressure on a year over year basis?

    社區數量仍在增加,但增速不如之前。第一季的現金流相當強勁,至少就季節性而言。所以你能否提供一些指引或說明,談談你預期今年全年現金流會如何表現?我們是否已經度過最大的現金消耗期,即使盈餘在年對年基礎上承壓,現金也可能開始改善?

  • Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. I mean we don't have specific cash flow guidance, as you noted, but the discipline to get down to $14 million specs per store is an incredible effort by the team, especially if you think that just a year ago, we were at 23 specs per store, that's relieved a lot of cash. That was kind of a more measured approach on land development while definitely increasing shareholder returns, but not by an equal offset is letting us kind of hold steady.

    是的。如你所說,我們沒有具體的現金流指引,但把每家門店的投機房(spec)降到1,400萬美元的紀律,是團隊非常了不起的努力;尤其如果你想到就在一年前,我們每家門店是23套投機房,這釋放了大量現金。這是一種在土地開發上更為審慎的做法,同時確實提高股東回報,但並非以等額對沖的方式,讓我們得以大致維持穩定。

  • So if you think about the fact that we have these faster cycle times and we're trying to time start with sales pace, you really shouldn't see something too detrimental occurring on the cash flows and any cash position where we are is probably a good place for us with the size of the balance sheet that we have. So I think that you're going to see this kind of maintenance of cash flow.

    所以如果你考量到我們的週期時間更快,且我們正嘗試讓開工時點與銷售速度匹配,你其實不應該看到現金流出現太不利的情況;而以我們資產負債表的規模來看,目前的現金水位大概也是一個不錯的位置。因此我認為你會看到現金流大致維持在這樣的狀態。

  • The outsized return to shareholders for the balance of this year, as we've already articulated in our programmatic repurchase plan. But I think that you should see a more measured cash utilization as we're bringing stores online, but a lot of the spend has already been incurred, and we're definitely monitoring the WIP units and the stick some brick costs that were spending before we close the home.

    今年剩餘期間對股東的超額回饋,我們已在既定的系統性回購計畫中說明過。但我認為,隨著我們讓門店陸續上線,你應該會看到更為審慎的現金使用;不過很多支出其實已經發生了,而且我們也在密切監控在建工程(WIP)單位,以及在房屋交屋前所投入的木材與磚材等建材成本。

  • Alan Ratner - Analyst

    Alan Ratner - Analyst

  • Thanks very much. Appreciate it.

    非常感謝。感激不盡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

    Michael Rehaut,摩根大通。

  • Michael Rehaut - Analyst

    Michael Rehaut - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to start off with just kind of broader thoughts around the demand backdrop. So far, this earnings season, we've heard slightly different narratives across the spectrum. Some builders kind of more leaning towards kind of a net commentary that maybe trends are a little bit more stable.

    謝謝。各位早安。謝謝讓我提問。我想先從對需求背景較宏觀的看法談起。到目前為止,在這一季的財報季中,我們聽到整個產業的敘事略有不同。有些建商的說法比較偏向:趨勢可能更穩定一些。

  • Also incentives and levels maybe also kind of stabilize and you kind of noted also a little bit about maybe inventory coming down somewhat, which has been helpful. At the same time, you've kind of highlighted some choppiness across your footprint, notwithstanding perhaps March coming back a little bit stronger.

    另外,優惠措施(incentives)及其水準可能也在趨於穩定;你們也稍微提到庫存可能有所下降,這是有幫助的。但同時,你們也強調在你們的營運版圖中存在一些波動,儘管3月可能回升得更強一些。

  • But I was hoping to get a sense of with what it sounds like from your commentary, maybe a little bit more on the cautious side, if I'm interpreting that correctly. Is it certain markets that you're exposed to? You highlighted parts of Florida, Charlotte, Austin, is it maybe the price point that you're offering or the fact that you're maybe still in kind of that spec area, which I think, by definition might cause a little bit more competition. Just trying to reconcile kind of where you are within the industry and how to better understand your positioning and how that relates to your commentary?

    不過我希望了解的是,從你們的評論聽起來,若我解讀正確,可能稍微偏保守一些。這是因為你們曝險於特定市場嗎?你們提到佛州部分地區、夏洛特、奧斯汀;還是因為你們提供的價格帶,或是你們仍偏向投機房(spec)模式——我想按定義這可能會帶來更多競爭。我只是想釐清你們在產業中的位置,並更好理解你們的定位,以及這與你們評論之間的關聯?

  • Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Thanks. I feel like you kind of answered your own question, but I'll try to add some more to it. I think we're more cautious than maybe the opposite of being cautious. I think a part of it is our buyer profile seems to be lacking the confidence that may other buyer profiles have.

    是的。謝謝。我覺得你某種程度上已經回答了自己的問題,但我再補充一些。我認為我們確實比起不保守的那一端更偏保守。其中一部分原因是,我們的買方輪廓似乎缺乏其他買方輪廓可能具備的信心。

  • They're stressed more from an affordability standpoint, cost of living. So it does feel like the procurement of those sales is very high, which makes us there cautious. I think the other thing is our footprint, we're in the Sunbelt states, primarily those were the states where prices got the most stretched during the last five years. Affordability got the most stretched. There's probably higher levels of inventory that we compete with.

    他們在可負擔性、生活成本方面承受更大壓力。所以感覺要取得這些銷售的成本非常高,這也讓我們更為謹慎。另外一點是,我們的版圖主要在陽光帶州(Sunbelt states),而這些州在過去五年房價拉升得最明顯。可負擔性被拉得最緊。我們面對的競爭庫存水準可能也更高。

  • We're going to head-to-head with a line of other entry-level builders that do similar things to us. So for all those reasons, I think when you look at our buyer profile and our geographical footprint, we feel cautious right now.

    我們會與許多同樣做入門級產品、模式與我們相近的建商正面競爭。因此,基於這些原因,當你看我們的買方輪廓與地理版圖時,我們目前確實感到較為謹慎。

  • Michael Rehaut - Analyst

    Michael Rehaut - Analyst

  • Right. No, understood. Secondly, there was a question earlier about cash flow and community count. And obviously, we reiterated your outlook for this year and you still have very strong growth kind of flowing through in 2026. How should we think about '27, '28 given your current land position, particularly since with volumes being such a big driver of leverage and maybe you're a little less confident at least in the near term around getting significant improvements in absorption? How should we think about community count growth over the near to medium term, two to three years out?

    了解。是的,明白。第二點,先前有人問到現金流與社區數量。而且很明顯地,我們重申了你們今年的展望,你們在2026年仍有非常強勁的成長延續。考量你們目前的土地部位,特別是在「量」是槓桿效應的重要驅動因素、而你們至少在短期內對顯著提升吸收率(absorption)可能沒那麼有信心的情況下,我們應該如何看待2027、2028?對於未來兩到三年、近中期的社區數量成長,你建議我們怎麼思考?

  • Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Great question. I feel really good about 2027. I mean, as I indicated in the script, we will have 5% to 10% community count growth this year over last year. So we're going to 2027 with that. I feel like we'll be able to hold or grow that incrementally in 2027, really hard to pin that down just yet until schedules are dialed in and whatnot.

    是的。好問題。我對2027年感覺非常好。我的意思是,如同我在講稿中提到的,我們今年的社區數量相較去年將成長5%到10%。所以我們會帶著這樣的基礎進入2027年。我覺得我們在2027年應該能夠維持或逐步增加,但在時程等細節都更明確之前,現在還很難精準定錨。

  • So I don't want to commit to anything in 2027, but we have the ability to grow our community count in 2027, if it makes sense. We're obviously rationalizing all new land or as Hilla said, we're phasing developments a lot more slowly these days. So we'll have to see how that all plays out in the back half of this year. 2028 is pretty far out there. We have 75,000 lots.

    所以我不想對 2027 年承諾任何事情,但如果合理的話,我們有能力在 2027 年增加我們的社區數量。很明顯地,我們正在理性評估所有新的土地,或者如 Hilla 所說,這些年我們正以更慢的速度分期推進開發。所以我們得看看今年下半年整體會如何發展。2028 年還很遠。我們有 75,000 個地塊。

  • So we have the ability to grow in 2020 as well. We're being very conservative on new land deals, although land prices have stabilized in some places come down, terms are better, they're still somewhat difficult to underwrite in the turn incentive environment. So we've been very slow to ramp up new land, and I think we'll continue to do so. We have enough land to get where we need to go. And I think if we need to do things to plus up 2028, I think the opportunities will be there. So I don't have a lot of visibility in 2028 right now, but I feel good about on 2027.

    所以我們在 2020 年也有成長的能力。我們在新土地交易上非常保守,雖然有些地方的地價已經趨於穩定、甚至下滑,條款也更好,但在目前的轉折性激勵環境下,承作評估(underwrite)仍然有些困難。因此我們一直很慢才加速新增土地,我認為我們會繼續這麼做。我們有足夠的土地來達成我們需要達成的目標。而且我認為如果我們需要採取一些措施來補強 2028 年,我想機會會在那裡。所以我現在對 2028 年沒有太多能見度,但我對 2027 年感覺良好。

  • Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • The goal is not to shrink, right? We have the ability to maintain or grow and we'll take our cues from the market.

    目標不是縮小規模,對吧?我們有能力維持或成長,我們會依市場狀況來調整。

  • Michael Rehaut - Analyst

    Michael Rehaut - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks so much.

    很好。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

    Susan Maklari,高盛。

  • Susan Maklari - Analyst

    Susan Maklari - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning, everyone. My first question is on the cancellation rate that you saw in the quarter. I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks that it stayed low. Can you talk to how your strategy of quick close is helping buyers even though they are seeing, you are seeing a lot more caution in there and how that came through in that cancellation rate this quarter?

    謝謝。各位早安。我的第一個問題是關於你們本季看到的取消率。我想你們在事先準備的發言中提到它維持在低檔。能否談談你們「快速交屋」的策略如何在買方更為謹慎的情況下仍能幫助他們,以及這如何反映在本季的取消率上?

  • Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I mean it's really low. So until it rises, we're not getting to kind of tension to it. I think a lot of the cancellations that are happening have a lot more to do with the buyer stepping away and just (inaudible) a good time. But again, it's a very low amount because we have such a quick sale to close, we got a closing ready guarantee because homes are ready to go.

    我的意思是,它真的很低。所以在它上升之前,我們不會對此產生那種緊張感。我認為目前發生的許多取消,更多是因為買方選擇退出,覺得(聽不清)不是個好時機。但再說一次,數量非常低,因為我們從銷售到交屋非常快;我們有「交屋準備就緒保證」,因為房子已經準備好可以交付。

  • So as you buy it, you're picking up your furniture our can rate is extremely low, and we expect it to remain that way given our strategy. I think when people can start to imagine moving into the house 60 days, they start planning their lives. And so it's extremely low. We expect it to remain very low. I'm not sure I'm answering your question.

    所以當你買下來時,你就可以去添購家具;我們的取消率極低,而且基於我們的策略,我們預期會維持這樣。我認為當人們開始能想像 60 天內就能搬進新家時,他們就會開始規劃自己的生活。因此它非常低。我們預期它會維持在非常低的水準。我不確定我是否回答到你的問題。

  • If there's another question, let me know.

    如果還有其他問題,請告訴我。

  • Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Just Susan, I think, everything we said is dead on pretty much the amount of time that it takes them to the time we enter into the sales contracts until the time they close the house, they spend getting documents to the mortgage company. There's not a lot of time rethink and tour other homes that maybe get convinced away from the commitment that they already made.

    Susan,我想我們剛才說的都很到位:從我們簽訂銷售合約到他們完成交屋的這段時間,他們主要都在把文件交給房貸公司。他們沒有太多時間去重新思考,或去看其他房子,然後可能被說服而放棄他們已經做出的承諾。

  • So they're so hyper focused on just getting everything to the finish line that, that's really helpful for us and a cancellation rate perspective. And even though our commitment is 60 days, if you look at our backlog conversion rate, you can see it actually happening much faster than that at 254% backlog conversion, we're getting folks from sale to move-in in less than 60 days. So they literally don't have any time to second-guess the decision.

    所以他們非常專注於把所有事情推到終點線,這對我們在取消率的角度非常有幫助。而且即使我們承諾是 60 天,如果你看我們的在手訂單(backlog)轉換率,你會看到實際上發生得更快:在 254% 的在手訂單轉換率下,我們讓客戶從成交到入住少於 60 天。所以他們真的沒有時間去對這個決定再三猶豫。

  • The fallout is typically an event outside of not wanting the home that's causing them to have a cancellation. It's something that occurs either in their financial position or in their personal life that's causing the cancellation rate. It's very rarely that they still continue to tour homes thinking they're moving into that house in 40 days and they fell in love with something else and walked away from the deposit. Hopefully, that's helpful.

    通常造成流失(fallout)的,是一些與不想要這間房子無關的外部事件,才導致他們取消。可能是他們的財務狀況或個人生活發生了某些事情,導致取消率出現。很少是因為他們還在繼續看房,明明 40 天後就要搬進那間房子,卻又愛上別的房子,然後放棄訂金走人。希望這樣有幫助。

  • Susan Maklari - Analyst

    Susan Maklari - Analyst

  • Yeah. No, that is helpful. That gets to my question. You're not seeing any change there. Obviously, the strategy of that quick close is helping you keep those people engaged and get them through that process, which is great to hear. So that's good.

    是的。不,這很有幫助。這回答到我的問題。你們沒有看到那方面有任何變化。顯然,快速交屋的策略正在幫助你們讓這些人保持投入並完成流程,這很高興聽到。所以這很好。

  • My second question is on the SG&A. You mentioned that obviously, there was some impact of less leverage overhead leverage that you saw this quarter. I guess, as you think about the back half of this year, how are you expecting that to come through to, or what will that address SG&A? And then as we think over time, can you talk a bit more about the back office automation and other savings that you're implementing?

    我的第二個問題是關於 SG&A(銷售、一般及行政費用)。你提到本季顯然受到一些影響,因為槓桿較低、間接費用槓桿較少。我想問的是,當你們看今年下半年時,你們預期這會如何反映出來,或者 SG&A 會如何呈現?另外,從長期來看,能否多談一些你們正在導入的後台自動化與其他節省措施?

  • Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. So we definitely, typically, Q1 is our high watermark for SG&A, we have some certain retirement compensation triggers that disproportionately skew expenses into the first quarter anyway. And based on our full year guidance for closings, it's going to be our lowest level quarter on closings. So definitely some lower leverage opportunities for us on SG&A costs in Q1. So you should definitely see an improvement in that target for the balance of the year in every one of the upcoming quarters.

    好的。所以我們確實——通常第一季是我們 SG&A 的高水位,因為有一些特定的退休補償觸發條件,會使費用在第一季不成比例地偏高。而且依照我們對全年交屋量的指引,第一季將是交屋量最低的一季。因此在第一季,SG&A 成本方面確實存在一些槓桿較低的情況。所以你應該會在今年剩餘期間、接下來每一季,都看到該目標有所改善。

  • As far as the back-office automation, there's a tremendous amount that that's still done in homebuilding, taking one piece of paper and typing it into another system, whether it's a closing document, something for title, escrow, mortgage, a lot of people doing things that are not their job decryption, right, their job is an analyst, it's not a typist.

    至於後台自動化,住宅建築業仍有大量工作是把一張紙上的內容再打進另一個系統裡,不論是交屋文件、產權(title)、代管(escrow)、房貸等相關文件;很多人在做的事情其實不是他們的職務說明(job description)該做的,對吧?他們的工作是分析師,不是打字員。

  • So we're finding ways for AI and technology to interpret documents and auto feed, a lot of data into our systems, which should help us gain efficiencies and is part of the path for us on getting to that 9.5% SG&A target in the future. Obviously, those numbers become being more meaningful at higher volumes, it would require, would have required more manhours to do some of those tasks. It helps you not just with cost, but also with accuracy and rework. So we're pretty excited about [money] initiatives.

    所以我們正在找方法讓 AI 與科技去解讀文件,並自動把大量資料匯入我們的系統,這應能幫助我們提升效率,也是我們未來達成 9.5% SG&A 目標路徑的一部分。顯然,當量體更高時,這些數字會更有意義;因為若沒有自動化,原本需要更多工時來完成其中一些任務。它不只在成本上有幫助,也能提升準確性並減少返工。所以我們對這些[money]計畫感到相當興奮。

  • There's also a lot of customer-facing initiatives, whether, it's something that we'll be rolling out. I don't want to steal the thunder from our sales and marketing teams so stay tuned for some fun announcements about some of our customer-facing solutions that we have, both back-office and customer-facing tools. that should both drive SG&A leverage benefits in the very near term.

    另外也有很多面向客戶的計畫,不論是我們即將推出的某些東西。我不想搶走我們銷售與行銷團隊的風采,所以請拭目以待;我們會就一些面向客戶的解決方案做出有趣的公告。我們同時有後台與面向客戶的工具,兩者都應能在非常近期帶來 SG&A 槓桿效益。

  • Susan Maklari - Analyst

    Susan Maklari - Analyst

  • Okay. That all sounds great. Thank you. Good luck with the quarter.

    好的。聽起來都很棒。謝謝。祝本季順利。

  • Steven Hilton - Executive Chairman of the Board

    Steven Hilton - Executive Chairman of the Board

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Lovallo, UBS.

    UBS 的 John Lovallo。

  • John Lovallo - Equity Analyst

    John Lovallo - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my questions as well. So you opened 40 new communities in the quarter, which I think is a pretty solid result. We typically would think of these newer communities having a higher absorption just given higher levels of interest and wait lists and things of that nature. So the question is, I mean, did you experience higher absorption in these new communities and then how many more communities should we expect as we move through the year?

    嗨,各位。也謝謝你們回答我的問題。所以你們本季新開了 40 個社區,我覺得這是相當不錯的成果。一般來說,我們會認為這些較新的社區因為關注度較高、候補名單等因素,吸收率通常會更高。所以我的問題是,你們在這些新社區是否確實看到更高的吸收率?另外,隨著今年推進,我們還應該預期會有多少新增社區?

  • Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, John. I think most of the communities we opened up in Q1, a lot of them opened up the last month of the quarter. They kind of hit what we bought and met our expectations, that would they exceeded our expectations.

    謝謝你,John。我想我們在第一季開出的多數社區,很多都是在季度最後一個月才開出。它們大致符合我們當初收購時的預期,並沒有超出我們的預期。

  • I wouldn't say they underperformed, they kind of did what we thought they were going to do. Probably Q2 will tell us more about whether they're hitting their stride, but they've seen, they're all very good locations, strong position, strong margins, strong pricing.

    我不會說它們表現不如預期,它們基本上就是如我們所預期的那樣。可能第二季會更能看出它們是否進入穩定節奏,但它們都位於非常好的地點,定位強、毛利強、定價能力強。

  • So I think we feel really good about them. And then as we said on the script, we expect 5% to 10% range of growth year over year. So I think you can expect a little bit more here in the back half of this year to get us to that number. We'll see how everything goes around opening those up. But we're committed to a 5% to 10% year over year growth in our community count this year.

    所以我想我們對它們感覺非常好。另外如同我們在講稿中提到的,我們預期社區數量年增會落在 5% 到 10% 的區間。因此我想你可以預期今年下半年會再多一些,以達到那個數字。我們會看開盤進度的各種情況而定。但我們承諾今年社區數量將達成年增 5% 到 10%。

  • John Lovallo - Equity Analyst

    John Lovallo - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. And then in the prepared remarks and I think in the press release, you guys called out some storm impact in the first quarter, which makes sense. Curious if those deliveries were actually captured in the quarter? Or do you expect those to be captured in the second quarter? And if there's any way to quantify the number of units?

    好的。這很有幫助。另外在事先準備的發言以及我想在新聞稿中,你們提到第一季受到一些風暴影響,這很合理。我想了解的是,那些交屋是否其實已經計入本季?還是你們預期會在第二季才反映?如果可以的話,能否量化大概影響多少戶?

  • Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I mean, January was softer than we thought. And I think the primary reason for that, given what we saw in February and March was the storm there were multiple markets that were impacted by that storm. In some cases, mobility was impacted. And so we just didn't see the traffic that we would have thought we would have saw towards the end of January.

    是的。我的意思是,一月比我們預期更疲弱。而我認為主要原因是,從二月和三月的表現來看,是那場風暴——有多個市場受到影響。在某些情況下,交通移動受到影響。因此我們在一月底沒有看到原本預期會出現的來客量。

  • And as you can see from our guidance, we missed our guidance, and we think that was why. I think that incremental volume that we thought we were going to see in January didn't materialize and if we would have closed an extra 200 to 300 homes, we probably would have been a lot closer to what we thought we were going to do.

    而且如你從我們的指引所見,我們未達指引,我們認為原因就在這裡。我想我們原本預期一月會看到的增量成交量並沒有出現;如果我們能多成交 200 到 300 戶,我們大概就會更接近原本預期的表現。

  • Those buyers we probably captured them in Febrauary or March depending. And so they'll probably close in into Q2, but our business doesn't really work that way. And we sell home and we close later, so whether we got that buyer or not, it can either happen next month or the month after that, and we're really just a just-in-time business at this point. So hopefully, that's helpful and answers your question.

    那些買方我們可能在二月或三月(視情況而定)才捕捉到。因此他們可能會在第二季交屋,但我們的業務運作方式其實不是那樣。我們先賣房、之後才交屋,所以不論我們是否拿到那位買方,可能是下個月或再下個月才發生;而目前我們基本上是一種即時(just-in-time)的營運模式。希望這樣有幫助並回答你的問題。

  • Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. I mean it's lost days of sale. You don't double up when the stores open back up and you capture two days of sale in one. So there are basically three, four, five lost days of sale in a large portion of our markets in January. And that, those are sales that are, we're not somehow recaptured in the next month.

    是的。我的意思是,這就是流失的銷售天數。商店重新開門後,你不會把兩天的銷售在一天內補回來。所以在一月,我們相當多市場基本上流失了三、四、五天的銷售天數。而那些銷售並不會在下個月被某種方式補回。

  • So we were trying to press on the gas and figure out a way to accelerate that. And then as we mentioned, the kind of consumer confidence, maybe put a little bit of a damper when inflation and interest rates and gas prices increase. So we view those as true lost days. Now we're working to catch up. You see our projections for Q2 are a lot healthier than Q1, but I don't know that they were like somehow recaptured in February.

    所以我們一直試著踩油門,想辦法加速補上。然後如我們提到的,當通膨、利率與油價上升時,消費者信心可能也會受到一些抑制。因此我們把那些視為真正流失的天數。現在我們正在努力追趕。你可以看到我們對第二季的預測比第一季健康得多,但我不認為那些銷售是以某種方式在二月被補回的。

  • John Lovallo - Equity Analyst

    John Lovallo - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you, guys.

    了解。謝謝各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jay McCanless, Citizens.

    Citizens 的 Jay McCanless。

  • Jay McCanless - Analyst

    Jay McCanless - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, everyone. First question I had, Hilla, in script, I think you talked about land vintages mostly being 2022 to '24. But I missed some of your other comments around that. I guess how much of either total lots now or owned lots running at that vintage or in that vintage area?

    各位早安。我的第一個問題是,Hilla,在講稿裡我想你提到土地批次(vintages)主要是 2022 到 2024 年。但我漏聽了你其他一些相關評論。我想問的是,目前不論是總地塊數或自有地塊數,有多少是屬於那個批次、或落在那個批次區間?

  • Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • That's pretty granular. So I mean we always have like some long-term communities that we're in Phase 6, and we have some new communities and we're probably buying 25 that we're selling at right now. So we're not giving that level of breakout, but for the most part, it was only just commentary as to why the lot cost is running a little bit hotter.

    這個問題相當細。我的意思是,我們一直都有一些長期社區,可能已經做到第 6 期;也有一些新社區;而且我們現在可能正在銷售的是 25 個我們買進的社區。所以我們不會提供那種層級的拆分,但大致上那只是用來說明為什麼地塊成本目前偏高。

  • We tend to have community sizes between 100 and 150 and at about 3.5, 4.5 net sales per store, you can do the math as to how quickly we burn through those. So for the most part for us, everything is live. I think was the intensive that comment, what we're experiencing and what we have been experiencing at the elevated land development cost burden, that's running through our numbers currently, but hopefully, we should be a tail end of that by the end of '27.

    我們的社區規模通常在 100 到 150 戶之間,而以每個銷售據點約 3.5 到 4.5 的淨銷售速度,你可以自行推算我們消化這些地塊的速度。所以對我們而言,大部分基本上都是正在銷售中的。我想那段話的重點是:我們正在經歷、而且一直在經歷較高的土地開發成本負擔,這些目前正反映在我們的數字裡;但希望到 2027 年底,我們就會接近走到那段影響的尾端。

  • Jay McCanless - Analyst

    Jay McCanless - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you for explaining that. And then the second question I had on the West segment, a fifth quarter in a row were orders down year over year and kind of stuck at this mid-80s community count maybe what's the strategy near term? Are there some older dated communities you have to sell through there before you can start to grow that again? Just maybe a quick take on what you're doing in the West segment.

    好的。謝謝你解釋。第二個問題是關於西部事業群:訂單已經連續第五個季度年減,而且社區數量似乎卡在 80 多個左右;短期策略是什麼?是否有一些較老、較不新穎的社區需要先去化完,才能再開始成長?能否簡要談談你們在西部事業群的作法?

  • Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I think you talked about the Western region, which is California, in Colorado and Utah, those are certainly some of the more challenged markets. I think the narrative on Denver is pretty clear. The narrative on what's been happening in Northern California is pretty clear. Arizona is kind of what it is, Sokol's been okay and you take a pretty strong market.

    是的。我想你指的是西部區域,也就是加州、科羅拉多與猶他;這些確實是較具挑戰的一些市場。我想丹佛的情況敘事相當清楚。北加州目前發生的情況敘事也相當清楚。亞利桑那就是那樣;Sokol 一直還可以,而你也會看到一個相當強勁的市場。

  • But just in general, the West region has been in a tougher place to do business. The affordability has been a lot of pressure on the buyers. There's a lot of competition. land prices are super sticky. Regulatory environment is really high.

    但整體而言,西部地區的經營環境一直更為艱難。可負擔性對買方造成了很大的壓力。競爭非常激烈,土地價格非常僵固。監管環境也非常嚴格。

  • So we've been intentionally trying to reallocate a significant part of our business to the east of the West region. It doesn't mean we're not in those markets. We don't believe in those markets, but we're being much more strategic. The value of your land book is high and it's very irreplaceable. So we're willing to run that region at a slower pace and try to maximize the margin of that land book because it took a long time to put together. And so you'll continue to see the West region be a smaller part of our business long term.

    因此,我們一直有意將業務中相當大的一部分重新配置到西部地區以東的市場。這並不代表我們不在那些市場。也不是說我們不看好那些市場,而是我們會更具策略性地布局。你的土地儲備(land book)價值很高,而且非常難以替代。因此,我們願意以較慢的節奏經營該區域,並嘗試將這本土地儲備的利潤率最大化,因為整合這些土地花了很長時間。所以,長期來看,你會持續看到西部地區在我們業務中的占比變得更小。

  • Jay McCanless - Analyst

    Jay McCanless - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And if I could sneak one more in. Phillippe, I was encouraged to hear what you're saying about external inventories. I mean if we think about time, whether it's 12, 18 months, any commentary you have on when you think external expect inventories to be down to a level that will give you guys some better pricing power?

    好的。很好。如果我可以再追問一個問題。Phillippe,聽到你提到外部庫存的看法,我感到很受鼓舞。我的意思是,如果我們從時間來看,不論是12個月、18個月,你能否評論一下,你認為外部庫存何時會下降到一個能讓你們擁有更好定價能力的水準?

  • Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Great question. I think the builder group in general did a great job these last quarters navigating some of their aged inventory. I think there's still a little bit of overhang out there. Even our numbers were still a little high on the finished spec that we're carrying like to carry a little bit less.

    是的。好問題。我認為整體建商在過去幾個季度在處理一些較久的庫存方面做得很好。我覺得外面仍然還有一點庫存壓力(overhang)。即使是我們自己的數據,在我們持有的已完工投機房(finished spec)方面仍然偏高一些,我們其實希望持有得再少一點。

  • I think there's still some other folks that are navigating as well, but the effort was significant. So I already feel better in general, as we go into Q2 that the environment is less competitive. But I do think there's still some more to go.

    我認為還有一些其他業者也仍在調整中,但整體努力幅度很大。所以整體而言,進入第二季時我已經感覺更好,環境競爭沒那麼激烈。但我確實認為還有一些路要走。

  • But I think as we work to got the rest of this year, I can see going into 2027, but a much different sort of competitive inventory environment. I think the other thing I mentioned is important is just there's a pivot away from specs in general in our industry for a lot of reasons, depending on who your consumer segment is and the markets you're in.

    不過我認為,隨著我們把今年剩下的時間走完,我可以想像到進入2027年時,競爭性的庫存環境會是非常不同的樣貌。我提到的另一個重點也很重要:基於許多原因,我們的產業整體正在從投機房(spec)轉向,這取決於你的消費者客群以及你所在的市場。

  • So I think that's helpful for us because we're not hitting away from specs. That's our business. And so less competition in the spec entry-level business, move-in ready business, it creates a better and competitive environment for our products specifically.

    所以我認為這對我們有幫助,因為我們並沒有遠離投機房。那就是我們的業務。因此,在投機型入門級、可立即入住(move-in ready)這類業務上的競爭變少,會為我們的產品特別創造更好的競爭環境。

  • Jay McCanless - Analyst

    Jay McCanless - Analyst

  • Okay, that's great. Thank you.

    好的,太好了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jade Rahmani, KBW.

    Jade Rahmani,KBW。

  • Jason Sabshon - Analyst

    Jason Sabshon - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for taking my question. This is Jason Sabshon on for Jade. I wanted to ask you about AI across various surveys, the construction industry ranks quite low in terms of the expected AI impact. And you commented on deployment opportunities in back office automation potentially customer acquisition. But are you seeing any other areas of the business where it could potentially make a difference, be that supply chain management or construction management? Thank you.

    嗨,謝謝讓我提問。我是代替Jade的Jason Sabshon。我想問一下關於AI:在各種調查中,建築業在預期AI影響方面的排名相當靠後。你也提到在後勤辦公自動化、以及可能在客戶獲取方面的部署機會。但你是否看到業務中還有其他可能產生影響的領域,例如供應鏈管理或施工管理?謝謝。

  • Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Hilla Sferruzza - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I mean, AI is going to have a place in every sector of every business. I think it's just deployment and low-hanging fruit. So I think we're starting off with some very easy pieces and hopefully making the mistakes and things that are easily fixable as we grow a new muscle in our skill set. But yeah, eventually, it's going to be a component of everything, everything that we do, the more that we manage our data and are able to use AI on, in a holistic way in all of our data. We try to also look at things as limited by a system.

    我的意思是,AI會在每個產業、每個企業的每個部門都有一席之地。我認為關鍵在於部署方式以及先從低垂的果實著手。所以我們會先從一些非常容易的部分開始,希望在我們培養新能力的過程中,先犯一些容易修正的錯誤。但沒錯,最終它會成為我們所做一切事情的一部分;我們越能管理好資料,並能以整體方式在所有資料上運用AI。我們也嘗試從「系統限制」的角度來看事情。

  • So if you think about your data and a data warehouse and then you can clearly everything in AI from that perspective, then there is no limit as to what functional area is benefiting for your AI initiatives. So yeah, it's definitely something that we're hyper focused on the opportunities for savings on the cost side are massive when you're thinking about it from that perspective. But we're going to walk, or crawl walk run, right? So we got to take the easy steps first and then advance on to beyond that.

    所以如果你把資料、資料倉儲建好,然後從那個角度就能清楚地把AI應用在所有事情上,那麼就沒有哪個職能領域不能從AI計畫中受益。所以是的,這絕對是我們高度聚焦的方向;從成本端來看,若以這個角度思考,節省成本的機會非常巨大。但我們會循序漸進,先爬、再走、再跑,對吧?所以我們得先走最容易的步驟,然後再往更進階的方向推進。

  • Jason Sabshon - Analyst

    Jason Sabshon - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you. And then just as a final question. Is there a certain level of mortgage rates or the tenure that you'd expect to drive an inflection in buyer activity?

    了解。謝謝。最後一個問題。是否有某個房貸利率水準或期間,你們預期會帶動買方活動出現轉折點?

  • Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good question. It feels like as things sort of move to 6six or slightly below six, we really see buyer psychology change below that level. And I think anything below that on your way to five will just be really unleashed demand because of the affordability piece. So that's kind of how we feel about it six or lower is good for our business, it's stable. Our rate buydowns are more efficient. Anything below that just provides more tailwind for our industry.

    好問題。感覺上,當利率大致降到6%或略低於6%時,我們確實看到買方心理在那個水準以下出現變化。而且我認為在此之下、往5%走的任何水準,都會因為可負擔性因素而釋放出非常強勁的需求。所以我們的看法大概是:6%或更低對我們的業務是好的,且相對穩定。我們的利率買斷(rate buydowns)也更有效率。任何更低的利率只會為整個產業帶來更多順風。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Great. Thanks.

    很好。謝謝。

  • Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Phillippe Lord - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you operator. I'd like to thank everyone who joined this call today for your continued interest in Meritage Homes. We hope you have a great rest of the day and a great weekend. Thank you.

    謝謝接線員。我要感謝今天參加本次電話會議的各位,並感謝大家持續關注Meritage Homes。祝大家今天剩下的時間愉快,也祝週末愉快。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's Meritage Homes first-quarter 2026 analyst call. Please disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.

    以上為Meritage Homes 2026年第一季分析師電話會議。請於此時掛斷電話,祝您有美好的一天。