MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the MGIC Investment Corporation second-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎參加 MGIC 投資公司 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

I will now turn the conference over to Dianna Higgins, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將會議交給投資者關係主管戴安娜·希金斯 (Dianna Higgins)。請繼續。

Thank you, Brittany. Good morning, and welcome, everyone. Thank you for your interest in MGIC. Joining me on the call today to discuss our results for the second quarter are Tim Mattke, Chief Executive Officer; and Nathan Colson, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Risk Officer.

謝謝你，布列塔尼。早上好，歡迎大家。感謝您對 MGIC 的關注。今天與我一起參加電話會議討論我們第二季業績的有執行長 Tim Mattke 和財務長兼首席風險長 Nathan Colson。

Our press release, which contains MGIC's second-quarter financial results was issued yesterday and is available on our website at mtg.mgic.com under Newsroom, includes additional information about our quarterly results that we will refer to during the call today. It also includes a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to their most comparable GAAP measures.

我們的新聞稿包含 MGIC 昨天發布的第二季度財務業績，可在我們的網站 mtg.mgic.com 的新聞編輯室查閱，其中包含有關我們季度業績的其他信息，我們將在今天的電話會議上參考。它還包括非公認會計準則財務指標與最具可比性的公認會計準則指標的對帳。

In addition, we posted on our website a quarterly supplement that contains information pertaining to our primary risk in force and other information you may find valuable. As a reminder, from time to time, we may post information about our underwriting guidelines and other presentations or corrections to past presentations on our website.

此外，我們在網站上發布了一份季度補充資料，其中包含有關我們的主要風險的資訊以及您可能認為有價值的其他資訊。提醒一下，我們可能會不時在我們的網站上發布有關我們的核保指南和其他介紹或對過去介紹的更正的資訊。

Before getting started today, I want to remind everyone that during the course of this call, we may make comments about our expectations of the future. Actual results could differ materially from those contained in these forward-looking statements.

在今天開始之前，我想提醒大家，在這次電話會議期間，我們可能會對未來的期望發表評論。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。

Additional information about the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed on the call today are contained in our Form 8-K and 10-Q filed yesterday. If we make any forward-looking statements, we are not undertaking an obligation to update those statements in the future in light of subsequent developments. No one should rely on the fact that such guidance or forward-looking statements are current at any time other than the time of this call or the issuance of our 8-K or 10-Q.

有關可能導致實際結果與今天電話會議上討論的結果大不相同的因素的更多信息，包含在我們昨天提交的 8-K 和 10-Q 表中。如果我們做出任何前瞻性陳述，我們不承擔根據後續發展更新這些陳述的義務。除本次電話會議或發布我們的 8-K 或 10-Q 表時外，任何人都不應依賴此類指導或前瞻性陳述在任何其他時間都是最新的。

With that, I now have the pleasure to turn the call over to Tim.

現在我很高興將電話轉給提姆。

Thanks, Dianna, and good morning, everyone. In the second quarter, we recorded net income of $193 million and an annualized return on equity of 15%. Our performance this quarter and throughout the first half of the year reflects our continued disciplined approach to the market, prudent risk and capital management strategies and our ongoing commitment to creating long-term value for our stakeholders.

謝謝，戴安娜，大家早安。第二季度，我們的淨收入為 1.93 億美元，年化股本回報率為 15%。本季度以及整個上半年的業績反映了我們持續嚴謹的市場態度、審慎的風險和資本管理策略以及我們持續致力於為利益相關者創造長期價值的承諾。

During the quarter, we wrote $16 billion of new insurance. Insurance in force, the primary driver of our revenue, ended the quarter at $297 billion. Annual persistency was 85% at the end of the quarter. Both insurance in force and annual persistency remained relatively flat over the past two quarters, in line with our expectations at the start of the year.

本季度，我們簽發了 160 億美元的新保險。有效保險是我們收入的主要驅動力，本季末有效保險金額達到 2,970 億美元。本季末的年度堅持率為85%。過去兩個季度，有效保險和年度繼續率均保持相對平穩，符合我們年初的預期。

We continue to be encouraged by the strong credit performance of our insurance portfolio. Our disciplined risk management and strong underwriting standards remain key drivers of the quality of our portfolio and the new insurance we've written continues to have solid credit characteristics. As always, we remain focused on building and maintaining a high-quality, well-diversified portfolio that supports our long-term success.

我們的保險投資組合的強勁信用表現繼續令我們感到鼓舞。我們嚴謹的風險管理和強大的承保標準仍然是我們投資組合品質的關鍵驅動力，我們承保的新保險繼續保持穩健的信用特徵。一如既往，我們將繼續專注於建立和維護高品質、多元化的投資組合，以支持我們的長期成功。

Turning to capital management. As we discussed on prior calls, our strategy is grounded in maintaining financial strength and flexibility to best position ourselves to navigate and achieve success in a range of economic scenarios.

轉向資本管理。正如我們在先前的電話會議上所討論的那樣，我們的策略基礎是保持財務實力和靈活性，以便在各種經濟形勢下能夠處於最佳位置並取得成功。

Key objectives include supporting growth by maintaining strong capital at the operating company and the holding company, sustaining a low to mid-teens debt-to-capital ratio, and a healthy liquidity buffer. When these objectives are met, we remain committed to returning excess capital to shareholders through share repurchases and common stock dividends.

主要目標包括透過維持營運公司和控股公司的強大資本、維持低至中等水平的債務資本比率以及健康的流動性緩衝來支持成長。當這些目標實現時，我們仍然致力於透過股票回購和普通股股利向股東返還多餘的資本。

During the second quarter, we continue to allocate excess capital to share repurchases, which totaled 7.1 million shares for $181 million. We also paid a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.13 per share, totaling $31 million. Over the prior four quarters, share repurchases totaled $721 million and shareholder dividends totaled $132 million. Combined, this represents a 112% payout on the net income we earned in the period. In addition, in the third quarter, through July 25, we repurchased an additional 2.6 million shares of common stock for $68 million.

第二季度，我們繼續將超額資本用於股票回購，共回購 710 萬股，價值 1.81 億美元。我們還支付了每股 0.13 美元的季度普通股股息，總計 3,100 萬美元。前四個季度，股票回購總額為 7.21 億美元，股東分紅總額為 1.32 億美元。綜合起來，這代表著我們在此期間獲得的淨收入的 112% 的支出。此外，截至 7 月 25 日的第三季度，我們以 6,800 萬美元回購了 260 萬股普通股。

This share repurchase activity continues to reflect our capital strength and solid financial results. As of July 25, we had $734 million remaining on our current share repurchase authorization. We continue to expect share repurchases will remain our primary method of returning capital to shareholders, while at the same time continuing to pay a quarterly common stock dividend. As previously announced, in the second quarter, we paid a $400 million dividend from MGIC to the holding company, ending the quarter with $1 billion of liquidity at the holding company.

此次股票回購活動持續反映我們的資本實力和穩健的財務表現。截至 7 月 25 日，我們目前的股票回購授權還剩餘 7.34 億美元。我們預期股票回購仍將是我們向股東返還資本的主要方式，同時我們將繼續支付季度普通股股利。正如先前宣布的那樣，在第二季度，我們向控股公司支付了MGIC 4億美元的股息，使得控股公司在本季末擁有10億美元的流動資金。

As always, we prioritize prudent growth over capital return. However, market conditions have continued to limit our growth of insurance in force, a trend we expect will persist through the remainder of the year. As a result, our credit performance remained strong, we anticipate capital levels of both MGIC and the holding company will stay above targets, supporting the continuation of elevated payout ratios.

一如既往，我們優先考慮穩健的成長而非資本回報。然而，市場環境持續限制了我們有效保單的成長，我們預計這一趨勢將持續到今年剩餘時間。因此，我們的信貸表現依然強勁，我們預計 MGIC 和控股公司的資本水準將保持在目標之上，從而支持繼續提高派息率。

The strong financial position of both the holding company and the operating company were key factors in the Board last week authorizing a 15% increase to our quarterly common stock dividend to $0.15 per share, marking five consecutive years of dividend increases with a compound annual growth rate of 20% over that period.

控股公司和營運公司的強勁財務狀況是董事會上週批准將季度普通股股息提高 15% 至每股 0.15 美元的關鍵因素，這標誌著股息連續五年增加，在此期間複合年增長率為 20%。

Turning more broadly to the current environment. While the housing market continues to face headwinds from elevated interest rates, ongoing affordability challenges and a slowdown in home sales, we remain encouraged by demographic trends and pent-up demand supporting long-term growth in MI opportunities.

更廣泛地看待當前環境。儘管房地產市場繼續面臨利率上升、持續的負擔能力挑戰和房屋銷售放緩等阻力，但我們仍然對人口趨勢和被壓抑的需求感到鼓舞，這些趨勢和需求支持 MI 機會的長期增長。

Nationally, home price growth has moderated in many markets, particularly in the south and west are seeing rising inventory, but to date, the housing market has remained resilient. While affordability remains a challenge for many prospective homebuyers, private mortgage insurance continues to play a critical role in helping low down payment borrowers access homeownership sooner.

從全國來看，許多市場的房價漲幅已經放緩，尤其是南部和西部地區的庫存正在增加，但迄今為止，房地產市場仍然保持彈性。雖然負擔能力對許多潛在購屋者來說仍然是一個挑戰，但私人抵押貸款保險在幫助低首付借款人更快獲得房屋所有權方面繼續發揮關鍵作用。

Now let me turn it over to Nathan to get into more details on our financial results for the quarter.

現在，讓我將主題交給 Nathan，讓他詳細介紹我們本季的財務表現。

Thanks, Tim, and good morning. As Tim discussed, we had solid financial results for the second quarter. We earned net income of $0.81 per diluted share, compared to $0.77 per diluted share during the same period last year. Adjusted net operating income was $0.82 per diluted share, compared to $0.77 last year. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP net income to adjusted net operating income can be found in our earnings release.

謝謝，提姆，早安。正如蒂姆所討論的，我們第二季度的財務表現穩健。我們的每股淨利潤為 0.81 美元，而去年同期的每股淨利潤為 0.77 美元。調整後的每股營業淨收入為 0.82 美元，而去年同期為 0.77 美元。在我們的收益報告中可以找到 GAAP 淨收入與調整後淨營業收入的詳細對帳。

Our solid operating performance and strong balance sheet drove an increase in book value per share to $22.11, an increase of 13% year over year. In the quarter, our re-estimation of ultimate losses on prior delinquencies resulted in $54 million of favorable loss reserve development. The favorable development this quarter primarily came from delinquency notices we received in 2023 and 2024.

我們穩健的營運績效和強勁的資產負債表推動每股帳面價值增至22.11美元，較去年同期成長13%。本季度，我們對先前拖欠的最終損失進行了重新評估，從而帶來了5,400萬美元的有利損失準備金成長。本季的良好發展主要來自於我們在 2023 年和 2024 年收到的拖欠通知。

Cure rates on recent delinquency notices continue to exceed our expectations and we adjusted our ultimate loss expectations accordingly. For new delinquency notices, we continue to use the initial claim rate assumption of 7.5%, which is consistent with recent quarters.

近期拖欠通知的治癒率持續超出我們的預期，我們相應地調整了最終損失預期。對於新的拖欠通知，我們繼續使用 7.5% 的初始索賠率假設，這與最近幾季的情況一致。

Taking a look at delinquency trends, our account-based delinquency rate decreased 9 basis points in the quarter to 2.21%, consistent with the seasonal trends we have discussed on past calls. Historically, February, March, and April are seasonally the best months for mortgage credit performance. We continue to see evidence that seasonal credit trends have returned after being disrupted during the pandemic. As a result, we do not expect the decrease in the delinquency rate in the first half of the year will continue in the back half of the year.

從拖欠趨勢來看，我們基於帳戶的拖欠率在本季度下降了 9 個基點，至 2.21%，與我們在過去電話會議上討論過的季節性趨勢一致。從歷史上看，二月、三月和四月是抵押貸款信貸表現最好的月份。我們持續看到證據表明，季節性信貸趨勢在疫情期間受到干擾後已逐漸恢復。因此，我們預計上半年拖欠率的下降趨勢不會在下半年延續。

We received 12,000 new delinquency notices in the second quarter, 5% higher than the second quarter of last year and 7% less than the second quarter of 2019. Cures outpaced new notices in the quarter, reflecting the seasonality we've been discussing. Although the delinquency rate at the end of the second quarter was 12 basis points higher than a year ago, the number of new notices and the delinquency rate remained low by historical standards.

我們在第二季收到了 12,000 份新的拖欠通知，比去年第二季高出 5%，比 2019 年第二季少了 7%。本季度，治癒量超過了新通知量，反映了我們一直在討論的季節性。儘管第二季末的拖欠率比去年同期高出 12 個基點，但新通知的數量和拖欠率仍處於歷史低點。

Looking ahead, we continue to expect that the combination of seasonality and the aging of our large 2021 and 2022 book year vintages into what are historically higher loss emergence years will result in an increase in new delinquency notices and the delinquency rate in the second half of the year.

展望未來，我們仍然預計，季節性因素以及 2021 年和 2022 年大帳簿年份進入歷史上損失出現率較高的年份將導致下半年新的拖欠通知和拖欠率增加。

The in force premium yield was 38.3 basis points in the quarter, relatively flat sequentially and with the second quarter last year and consistent with what we expected. As I mentioned on prior calls, with high persistency expected again this year and MI origination trends similar to last year, we continue to expect in force premium yield to remain relatively flat for 2025.

本季有效保費收益率為 38.3 個基點，與上一季和去年第二季相比基本持平，與我們的預期一致。正如我在之前的電話會議上提到的那樣，由於今年預計持續性將再次保持高水平，且 MI 發起趨勢與去年相似，我們繼續預計 2025 年有效保費收益率將保持相對平穩。

Investment income continues to contribute meaningfully to our revenue. The book yield on the portfolio was 4% at the end of the second quarter, relatively flat quarter over quarter, but up 10 basis points from a year ago. Net investment income was $61 million in the quarter, relatively flat sequentially and year over year.

投資收益持續為我們的收入做出重大貢獻。第二季末，該投資組合的帳面收益率為 4%，環比基本持平，但比去年同期高出 10 個基點。本季淨投資收入為 6,100 萬美元，與上一季和去年同期相比基本持平。

During the quarter, reinvestment rates on our fixed income portfolio continued to exceed our book yield. However, we anticipate the overall book yield will remain relatively flat for the remainder of the year. This is primarily due to a decline in shorter-term interest rates and elevated levels of capital return, both of which limit the growth of the investment portfolio. The unrealized loss position on our portfolio narrowed by $36 million, primarily driven by a decrease in interest rates.

本季度，我們的固定收益投資組合的再投資利率繼續超過我們的帳面收益率。不過，我們預期今年剩餘時間內整體圖書殖利率將保持相對穩定。這主要是由於短期利率下降和資本回報率上升，這兩者都限制了投資組合的成長。我們的投資組合的未實現虧損減少了 3,600 萬美元，主要原因是利率下降。

We remain focused on disciplined expense management and continuing to drive operational efficiency across the organization. Operating expenses were $52 million this quarter, down from $55 million in the second quarter last year. Included in operating expenses this quarter was a $4 million accounting charge related to lump sum settlements from our pension plan due to the amount of those settlements.

我們將繼續專注於嚴格的費用管理，並繼續提高整個組織的營運效率。本季營運費用為 5,200 萬美元，低於去年第二季的 5,500 萬美元。本季的營運費用包括一筆 400 萬美元的會計費用，這筆費用與我們的退休金計畫一次性結算有關，因為結算金額較大。

As a reminder, we froze the pension plan at the end of 2022. But as the plan gets smaller, we are more likely to trigger these accounting charges as lump sum settlements are paid out of the plan. We continue to expect the full-year operating expenses will be in the range we previously provided of $195 million to $205 million.

提醒一下，我們在 2022 年底凍結了退休金計畫。但隨著計畫規模變小，我們更有可能觸發這些會計費用，因為一次性結算是從計畫中支付的。我們繼續預計全年營運費用將在我們之前提供的 1.95 億美元至 2.05 億美元範圍內。

As Tim mentioned earlier, our capital management strategy is grounded in maintaining flexibility and resilience in various environments. Our capital structure includes $6 billion of balance sheet capital, and our well-established reinsurance program remains a key component of our risk and capital management strategies.

正如蒂姆之前提到的，我們的資本管理策略的基礎是在各種環境中保持靈活性和彈性。我們的資本結構包括 60 億美元的資產負債表資本，我們完善的再保險計劃仍然是我們風險和資本管理策略的關鍵組成部分。

In addition to reducing the loss volatility and stress scenarios, our reinsurance agreements provide capital diversification and flexibility at attractive costs and reduced our PMIERs required assets by $2.5 billion or approximately 43% at the end of the second quarter.

除了降低損失波動和壓力情境外，我們的再保險協議還以具有吸引力的成 本提供了資本多樣化和靈活性，並在第二季末將我們的 PMIER 所需資產減少了 25 億美元，約 43%。

We further bolstered our reinsurance program in the second quarter with two excess of loss agreements with panels of highly rated reinsurers to cover most of our 2025 and 2026 NIW. These reinsurance agreements complement the 40% quota share agreements we had in place at the start of the year to cover the same in NIW.

我們在第二季度進一步加強了我們的再保險計劃，與評級較高的再保險公司小組簽訂了兩份超額損失協議，以涵蓋我們 2025 年和 2026 年的大部分 NIW。這些再保險協議是我們年初制定的 40% 配額協議的補充，以涵蓋 NIW 中的相同內容。

With that, let me turn it back over to Tim.

說完這些，讓我把話題還給提姆。

Thanks, Nathan. A couple of additional comments before we open it up for questions. The passing of One Big Beautiful Bill Act restores and makes permanent the tax deduction of MI premium, delivering meaningful tax relief to homeowners without increasing risk to the housing finance system. We are very pleased with the inclusion of this deduction and the tax relief that will be delivered to millions of homeowners. Private MI allows down payment to homebuyers to get off the sidelines and achieve the American dream of homeownership sooner.

謝謝，內森。在我們開始提問之前，還有幾點補充意見。《一項大而美的法案》的通過恢復並永久實施了MI保費的稅收減免，為房主帶來了有意義的稅收減免，同時又不增加住房金融體系的風險。我們非常高興這項扣除額的納入以及數百萬房主將享受的稅收減免。私人保險允許購屋者支付首付，從而避免購屋困難，更快實現擁有住房的美國夢。

In closing, I am pleased with our financial performance in the second quarter and throughout the first half of the year. As we look ahead, our focus remains on driving long-term value creation for our shareholders while continuing to support our customers with high-quality products and solutions. Together, we are helping low down payment borrowers achieve the dream of homeownership sooner.

最後，我對我們第二季及上半年的財務表現感到滿意。展望未來，我們將繼續致力於為股東創造長期價值，同時繼續為客戶提供高品質的產品和解決方案。我們共同幫助低首付借款人更快實現擁有住房的夢想。

With that, Brittany, let's take questions.

布列塔尼，讓我們來回答問題吧。

(Operator Instructions) Douglas Harter, UBS.

（操作員指示）道格拉斯·哈特，瑞銀。

Kind of can you remind us how you are thinking about sizing the level of capital return you're doing? How you're thinking about the amount of holdco liquidity you want to hold? And what are the gating factors as far as getting dividends up from the MI subsidiary?

您能否提醒我們一下，您是如何考慮確定資本回報水準的？您如何考慮想要持有的控股公司流動性數量？那麼，從 MI 子公司取得股利的限制因素是什麼？

Yes Doug, it's Nathan. Thanks for the question. Maybe I'll start at the operating company level. We've been paying dividends twice a year for the last several years in the range of $300 million to $400 million every six months. And that's really been driven based on excellent credit performance and excellent financial results that are continuing to generate a lot of organic capital that we've been able to dividend out.

是的，道格，我是內森。謝謝你的提問。也許我會從營運公司層面開始。過去幾年，我們每年支付兩次股息，每六個月支付 3 億至 4 億美元的股息。這實際上是基於出色的信用表現和出色的財務業績，這些業績正在繼續產生大量我們能夠分紅的有機資本。

So I think the first order condition for us is continued excellent financial results, not feeling like we can prudently redeploy that capital at the operating company into growth, that would always be the priority, but we just don't think that the current environment really supports that right now.

因此，我認為對我們來說，首要條件是繼續保持優異的財務業績，而不是感覺我們可以謹慎地將營運公司的資本重新部署到成長中，這始終是優先事項，但我們只是認為當前的環境並不真正支持這一點。

So if the credit conditions continue to be attractive and the lack of growth on the in force side persists, then we expect that we will continue to generate excess capital and be able to continue to pay dividends from the operating company to the holding company. I think the size of those dividends is dependent on a number of factors. But as long as our capital levels are above our targets, I think dividends at similar levels to what we've paid out the last couple of years are kind of how we would think about things going forward.

因此，如果信貸條件繼續具有吸引力，並且在現有業務方面持續缺乏成長，那麼我們預計我們將繼續產生過剩資本，並能夠繼續從營運公司向控股公司支付股息。我認為股息的金額取決於多種因素。但只要我們的資本水準高於我們的目標，我認為與過去幾年支付的股利水準相似的股利就是我們對未來的看法。

And then at the holding company level, we do have about $1 billion in cash at the end of Q2. And that's really been because of the larger dividends that we've paid, I think we've got the debt-to-capital position where we want it. And all of these things have supported the elevated payout ratios that Tim has talked about, a little more than 110% over the trailing four quarters and a similar level in Q2.

然後在控股公司層面，我們在第二季末確實擁有約 10 億美元的現金。這確實是因為我們支付了更多的股息，我認為我們已經達到了我們想要的債務資本狀況。所有這些因素都支持了蒂姆所說的提高派息率，過去四個季度的派息率略高於 110%，第二季的派息率也與此類似。

So I think if we continue in this environment where it's hard for us to prudently grow, but credit conditions remain favorable and financial results are excellent, then we do think that elevated payout ratios can continue.

因此我認為，如果我們繼續處於這種難以謹慎增長但信貸條件仍然有利且財務業績優異的環境中，那麼我們確實認為高股息率可以繼續保持。

And I guess just taking the other side, if these conditions continue, I mean, what -- could there be a case where you could even increase the payout further just given the strong capital and strong capital generation?

我想，從另一個角度來看，如果這些情況繼續下去，我的意思是，在擁有雄厚資本和強大資本產生能力的情況下，是否還有可能進一步增加支出？

At the operating company level, we are constrained at some level by our contingency reserve balance. So we do still have enough statutory surplus to continue to pay out dividends at these levels, but we have been drawing down that surplus level over time. So there is kind of a natural governor there over time. But I think for us, we do like to think about -- it's a long-term business. We like to think about things in the long term.

在營運公司層面，我們在某種程度上受到應急儲備餘額的限制。因此，我們確實仍有足夠的法定盈餘來繼續以這些水準支付股息，但隨著時間的推移，我們一直在降低盈餘水準。因此，隨著時間的推移，那裡就會出現一種自然的調節器。但我認為，對我們來說，我們確實喜歡思考——這是一項長期業務。我們喜歡從長遠角度來考慮問題。

So the idea of resetting the capital levels with maybe significant returns at any one time is not likely how we would approach it. I think this elevated payout ratio is a way to slowly draw down the excess capital while keeping an eye on what's going on in the market is what's been our approach the last several years, and I think it's worked well for us, and I think that's how we would think about it going forward.

因此，我們不太可能採取在任何時候都可能獲得可觀回報的重置資本水準的想法。我認為提高派息率是一種慢慢減少過剩資本的方法，同時密切關注市場動態，這是我們過去幾年的做法，我認為這對我們來說很有效，我想這就是我們未來的想法。

Bose George, KBW.

博斯喬治，KBW。

Can you talk about your expectation for home prices? And to the extent home prices continue to slow or potentially turn negative, could we see the industry pricing adjust for that?

能否談談房價的預期？如果房價繼續放緩或可能轉為負值，我們是否會看到行業定價進行調整？

Bose, it's Nathan. Thanks for the question. I think a lot of the forecast right now for national home prices are really flat over the next several years. But increasingly, it looks like different parts of the country may behave differently. And places like Florida, Texas, across the south and the west, it feels like there's maybe more supply than demand in some markets in the northeast and midwest, kind of the opposite dynamic.

博斯，我是內森。謝謝你的提問。我認為目前對未來幾年全國房價的許多預測都是持平的。但越來越明顯的是，美國不同地區的表現可能有所不同。像佛羅裡達州、德克薩斯州以及南部和西部地區，東北部和中西部的一些市場似乎供應大於需求，情況正好相反。

So I think one of the things that is most attractive about risk-based pricing for us is that we really can price risk at a very granular level, including all kinds of factors like the market that a particular property is in. So for us, this is something that is just part of our day-to-day operations, too, to think about the risks in the markets that we take, the risk with the products that we ensure. And it's another factor that certainly goes into pricing. I think pricing is pretty dynamic to the risk that we feel like we're facing, and we have the ability to modify that very quickly to be reactive.

因此，我認為基於風險的定價對我們來說最有吸引力的一點是，我們確實可以在非常細微的層面上對風險進行定價，包括各種因素，例如特定房產所在的市場。因此，對我們來說，這也是我們日常營運的一部分，我們要考慮我們所承擔的市場風險，以及我們所承保的產品的風險。這當然是影響定價的另一個因素。我認為定價對於我們面臨的風險來說是相當動態的，我們有能力快速地進行修改以做出反應。

But I think right now, these are risk factors, not really things that we're seeing in terms of realizing those risks. There aren't large parts of the country where we're seeing home price declines. And in a long-term sense, slowing home price appreciation kind of derisk things over the long term.

但我認為，目前這些都是風險因素，而不是我們在實現這些風險方面真正看到的事情。我們看到，全國大部分地區的房價並未出現下跌。長遠來看，減緩房價上漲可以降低長期風險。

So I think if we see home price declines in some areas, we have a very geographically diverse portfolio. I feel like we're in a great position for that. But seeing longer periods here with low single-digit home price growth I think is long term good for our performance, because I think the thing that we worry the most about is that home price growth is really not sustained, and then that could lead to more significant home price declines in the future. So something that we're watching every day.

因此我認為，如果我們看到某些地區的房價下跌，那麼我們的投資組合在地理上就非常多樣化。我覺得我們在這方面處於非常有利的位置。但我認為，長期來看，房價維持個位數低成長態勢對我們的業績有利，因為我認為我們最擔心的是房價成長難以持續，這可能會導致未來房價出現更大幅度的下跌。所以，這是我們每天都在關注的事情。

And I think increasingly, it does look like certain parts of the country are behaving differently or have different supply-demand dynamics than other parts of the country, but we're in a position to react to that now in a way that we really weren't in a position to react to when we use rate cards prior to maybe six, seven years ago.

我認為，越來越多的證據表明，該國某些地區的行為方式或供需動態與其他地區不同，但我們現在能夠對此做出反應，而六七年前我們使用價目表時我們無法對此做出反應。

So like I said, just kind of a core part of what we do and something that we were monitoring when home prices are going up everywhere. We'll continue to monitor it kind of no matter what the situation just because it's so fundamental to our business.

所以就像我說的，這只是我們工作的核心部分，也是我們在各地房價上漲時監控的事情。無論情況如何，我們都會繼續監控它，因為它對我們的業務至關重要。

Okay. That makes sense. Thank you. And then actually switching to the OpEx guidance. The $195 million to $205 million, does that exclude that $4 million? And then just going forward, is that kind of a number that we could see like maybe annually or something until the pension thing runs out fully?

好的。這很有道理。謝謝。然後實際上轉到運營支出指導。 1.95億美元到2.05億美元，不包括那400萬美元嗎？那麼，展望未來，我們是否可以看到這樣的數字，例如每年或某種程度上，直到退休金完全用完？

Yes. The $4 million charge that we incurred in the second quarter is in, obviously, the Q2 number, and it's in the full year kind of reiteration of the guidance that we have. So we think that even after the $4 million charge that we had -- and we do expect to have smaller, but still have charges again in the third and fourth quarter based on lump sum activity. But that's all in the expectations for the full year now.

是的。我們在第二季產生的 400 萬美元費用顯然是在第二季的數字中，並且它是對我們全年指引的重申。因此，我們認為，即使在計入了400萬美元的費用之後——我們確實預計費用會有所減少，但根據一次性支出，第三季和第四季仍會再次產生費用。但這些都包含在全年的預期中。

And going forward, we'll have that in the expense guide. But it is something that in the footnotes of the financial statements as always called out, so there's a footnote about the pension plan. So you can see it there, you can see it over time there. Just called it out here because it was a large enough item and kind of unique enough to the second quarter that I just wanted to highlight it for everyone.

今後，我們將其納入費用指南中。但正如往常一樣，財務報表的腳註中會提到這一點，因此有一個關於退休金計劃的腳註。所以你可以在那裡看到它，你可以在那裡看到它隨著時間的推移。我之所以在這裡提到它，是因為它是一個足夠大的項目，而且對於第二季度來說足夠獨特，所以我只是想向大家強調一下。

Thank you so much. There are no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

太感謝了。沒有其他問題了。現在我想將電話轉回給管理階層，請他們做最後發言。

Thank you, Brittany. I want to thank everyone for your participation in today's call and interest in MGIC. We will be participating in the Barclays Financial Services conference and the Zelman Housing Summit in September. I look forward to talking to all of you again in the near future. Have a great rest of your week.

謝謝你，布列塔尼。我要感謝大家參加今天的電話會議以及對 MGIC 的關注。我們將參加九月的巴克萊金融服務會議和澤爾曼住房高峰會。我期待著不久的將來再次與大家交談。祝您本週剩餘時間過得愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。