MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the MGIC Investment Corporation third-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operatoe Instructions)

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 MGIC Investment Corporation 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Dianna Higgins, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係主管戴安娜·希金斯 (Dianna Higgins)。請繼續。

Thank you, Gerald. Good morning and welcome, everyone. Thank you for your interest and MGIC team. Joining me on the call today to discuss our results for the third quarter, our Tim Mattke, Chief Executive Officer; and Nathan Colson, Chief Financial Officer. Our press we need, which contains MGIC third quarter financial results was issued yesterday and is available on our website at mtg.mgic.com under Newsroom includes additional information about our quarter and today.

謝謝你，傑拉德。早上好，歡迎大家。感謝您的關注和 MGIC 團隊。今天與我一起參加電話會議，討論我們第三季的業績，我們的執行長 Tim Mattke；和財務長內森科爾森。我們需要的新聞報導昨天發布，其中包含 MGIC 第三季度財務業績，可在我們的網站 mtg.mgic.com 的 Newsroom 下找到，其中包括有關我們季度和今天的更多資訊。

It also includes a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to their most comparable GAAP measures. In addition, we posted on our website a quarterly supplement that contains information pertaining to our primary risk in force and other information you may find valuable.

它還包括非公認會計準則財務指標與其最具可比性的公認會計準則財務指標的調節。此外，我們還在網站上發布了季度補充資料，其中包含與我們有效的主要風險相關的資訊以及您可能認為有價值的其他資訊。

As a reminder, from time to time, we may post information about our underwriting guidelines and other presentations or corrections to past presentations on our website. Before we get started today, I want to remind everyone that during the course of this call, we may make comments about our expectations of the future.

謹此提醒，我們可能會不時在我們的網站上發布有關核保指南和其他簡報或對過去簡報的更正的資訊。在今天開始之前，我想提醒大家，在這次電話會議期間，我們可能會就我們對未來的期望發表評論。

Actual results could differ materially from those contained in these forward looking statements. Additional information about the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed on the call today are contained in our 8-K and 10-Q also filed yesterday.

實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中所包含的結果有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果與今天電話會議中討論的結果大不相同的因素的更多資​​訊包含在我們昨天提交的 8-K 和 10-Q 中。

If we make any forward-looking statements, we are not undertaking an obligation to update those statements in the future in light of subsequent developments. No one should rely on the fact that such guidance or forward-looking statements are current at any other time than the time of this call or the issuance of our 8-K and 10-Q. With that, I now have the pleasure to turn the call over to Tim.

如果我們做出任何前瞻性陳述，我們不承擔根據後續發展在未來更新這些陳述的義務。除了本次電話會議或發布 8-K 和 10-Q 之外，任何人都不應依賴這樣的事實：此類指導或前瞻性陳述在任何其他時間都是最新的。至此，我現在很高興將電話轉給蒂姆。

Thank you, Dianna, and good morning, everyone. We are very pleased with our third quarter financial results, which continue to demonstrate the strength of our business model in response to changing market conditions.

謝謝戴安娜，大家早安。我們對第三季的財務表現感到非常滿意，這繼續證明了我們的業務模式在應對不斷變化的市場條件方面的實力。

Our disciplined approach to risk management and prudent capital management strategies, together with our leadership in the market and focus on serving our customers with quality offerings and best in class service, continue to drive value for our stakeholders.

我們嚴格的風險管理方法和審慎的資本管理策略，加上我們在市場上的領導地位，並專注於為客戶提供優質的產品和一流的服務，繼續為我們的利害關係人創造價值。

Let's get started with a few financial highlights. In the quarter, we earned net income of $200 million and generated an annualized return on equity of 15.6%. Insurance In force ended the quarter at $293 billion, up slightly quarter over quarter with annual persistency and in the quarter at 85%, flat compared to the lab last quarter.

讓我們從一些財務亮點開始。本季度，我們實現淨利潤 2 億美元，年化股本回報率為 15.6%。本季末有效保險金額為 2,930 億美元，與年度持續性相比，環比略有增長，本季為 85%，與上季實驗室持平。

We wrote 17.2 billion of new insurance in the quarter, up 27% from the prior quarter. Underwriting standards remain high, and we are focused on maintaining a strong and balanced insurance portfolio. We continue to be pleased with our credit quality and performance of our portfolio, and our financial results have benefited from the favorable credit performance we have been experiencing.

本季我們新承保了 172 億保單，比上一季成長 27%。承保標準仍然很高，我們致力於維持強大而平衡的保險組合。我們仍然對我們的信用品質和投資組合的表現感到滿意，我們的財務表現也受益於我們一直以來良好的信用表現。

Turning to our capital activities, the strength and flexibility of our capital position in the quarter supported the repurchase of 5.2 million shares of common stock for $123 million in the payment of a quarterly common stock dividend of $34 million. Combined, these represented 79% payout ratio of the quarter's net income.

談到我們的資本活動，本季我們資本狀況的實力和靈活性支持以 1.23 億美元回購 520 萬股普通股，並支付 3,400 萬美元的季度普通股股息。合計而言，這些支出佔該季度淨利潤的 79%。

In addition, in October, we repurchased an additional 2.9 million shares of common stock for a total of $72 million. When determining our repurchase activity. We consider and evaluate a variety of internal and external factors and metrics, including share price through purchase activity I just discussed was reflective of continued strong credit performance and financial results and also higher market valuation levels. And we have experienced in recent years.

此外，10月份，我們額外回購了290萬股普通股，總價值為7,200萬美元。在確定我們的回購活動時。我們考慮和評估各種內部和外部因素和指標，包括我剛才討論的購買活動的股價，這反映了持續強勁的信貸表現和財務業績以及較高的市場估值水平。近年來我們也經歷過。

We expect share repurchases will remain our primary means of returning capital to shareholders. As previously announced, the Board authorized the $0.13 per share quarterly common stock dividend payable on November 21, and last week, MGIC pay the $400 million dividend to the holding company, the dividend from MGIC to the holding company, reflecting capital levels at MGIC that continue to be above our target.

我們預期股票回購仍將是我們向股東返還資本的主要方式。正如先前宣布的，董事會授權於11 月21 日支付每股0.13 美元的季度普通股股息，上週，MGIC 向控股公司支付了4 億美元的股息，即MGIC 向控股公司支付的股息，反映了MGIC的資本水準繼續高於我們的目標。

Our approach to capital management continues to be dynamic and maintaining both financial strength and flexibility are the cornerstones of our strategy. This approach enables us to position ourselves to achieve our objectives in various macroeconomic environments and it serves our stakeholders as well, MGIC's capital structure includes $6 billion of PMIERs available assets.

我們的資本管理方法持續保持動態，保持財務實力和靈活性是我們策略的基石。這種方法使我們能夠在各種宏觀經濟環境中實現我們的目標，也為我們的利害關係人服務，MGIC 的資本結構包括 60 億美元的 PMIER 可用資產。

Our well established reinsurance program remains integral to our risk and capital management strategies. In addition, reducing the volatility of losses and stress scenarios. Our reinsurance agreements, provide diversification and flexibility to our sources of capital and attract costs and reduced our PMIERs required assets by $2.2 billion or 40% at the end of the third quarter.

我們完善的再保險計劃仍然是我們風險和資本管理策略的組成部分。此外，減少損失和壓力情境的波動性。我們的再保險協議為我們的資本來源提供了多元化和靈活性，並吸引了成本，並在第三季末將我們的 PMIER 所需資產減少了 22 億美元或 40%。

PMIRs, operational and risk based capital requirements provide a strong foundation to serve low downpayment borrowers while protecting the GSE and taxpayers from under mortgage credit risk. In August, the GSEs issued updates to the risk base requirements related to the calculation of available assets, which will be implemented over a 24-month phase in period with a fully effective date of September 30, 2026. We don't expect these updates, we'll have a material impact on MGIC's available assets for our investment strategy.

PMIR、基於營運和風險的資本要求為服務低首付借款人提供了堅實的基礎，同時保護 GSE 和納稅人免受抵押貸款信用風險的影響。8 月，GSE 發布了與可用資產計算相關的風險基礎要求的更新，該更新將在 24 個月的時間內分階段實施，並於 2026 年 9 月 30 日全面生效。我們預計這些更新不會對 MGIC 的投資策略可用資產產生重大影響。

Turning more broadly to the market conditions. The housing market remains constrained by limited supply of homes for sale and affordability challenges compounded by higher mortgage rates. However, there may be signs of easing. The recent Fed interest rate cut and generally lower mortgage rates in the third quarter led to the first year over year increase in mortgage applications and three three years.

更廣泛地轉向市場狀況。房地產市場仍然受到待售房屋供應有限和抵押貸款利率上升加劇的負擔能力挑戰的限制。不過，可能有緩和的跡象。最近聯準會降息以及第三季抵押貸款利率普遍較低，導致抵押貸款申請量首次年增，並且是三年來首次。

In addition, the rate of home price appreciation continues to slow from the highs we saw in 2022 in the inventory of homes for sales, increasing pent-up demand for homeownership and demographics suggesting that the millennial and Gen Z populations will continue to add to housing demand or reasons to be optimistic about the resiliency of our business.

此外，待售房屋庫存從 2022 年的高點來看，房價升值速度持續放緩，被壓抑的購屋需求不斷增加，人口結構顯示千禧世代和 Z 世代人口將繼續增加住房需求對我們業務彈性持樂觀態度的需求或理由。

Lastly, I'm happy to report in September A.M. Best upgraded MGIC's financial strength and credit ratings to A. from A and revised the outlook to the credit rating sustainable and aimed as stated, the ratings reflect MGIC balance sheet strength, which A.M. Best assesses the strongest as well as MGIC's operating performance and robust and surprise risk management framework.

最後，我很高興在九月上午報告。 Best 將 MGIC 的財務實力和信用評級從 A 上調至 A，並將前景修改為可持續和目標信用評級，如前所述，該評級反映了 MGIC 的資產負債表實力，A.M. Best 評估最強者以及 MGIC 的營運績效以及穩健且令人驚訝的風險管理架構。

With that, let me turn it over to Nathan to get into more details on financial results for the quarter.

接下來，讓我將其轉交給內森，以了解有關本季財務表現的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Tim, and good morning. As Tim mentioned, we had another quarter with excellent financial results. We earned net income and adjusted net operating income of $0.77 per diluted share compared to $0.64 per diluted share last year.

謝謝蒂姆，早安。正如蒂姆所提到的，我們又一個季度取得了出色的財務表現。我們的淨收入和調整後淨營業收入為每股攤薄後每股 0.77 美元，而去年攤薄後每股為 0.64 美元。

A detailed reconciliation of GAAP net income to adjusted net operating income can be found in our earnings release. The strong credit performance we continue to experience again leading to a negative loss ratio this quarter. Re-estimation of ultimate losses on prior delinquencies resulted in $66 million of favorable loss reserve development in the quarter.

公認會計原則淨利與調整後淨營業收入的詳細調節表可以在我們的收益報告中找到。我們持續經歷的強勁信貸表現再次導致本季出現負損失率。對先前拖欠的最終損失的重新估計導致本季有利的損失準備金增加了 6,600 萬美元。

The favorable development this quarter primarily came from delinquency notices we received in 2022 and 2023. Cure rates on those delinquency notices continue to exceed our expectations and therefore, we have made favorable adjustments to our ultimate loss expectations.

本季的有利發展主要來自我們在 2022 年和 2023 年收到的拖欠通知。這些拖欠通知的治癒率繼續超出我們的預期，因此，我們對最終損失預期進行了有利的調整。

In the third quarter, our account base delinquency rate increased 15 basis points to 2.24%, which is consistent with the seasonal trends we discussed last quarter and below the pre-pandemic 2.78% delinquency rate seen at the end of the third quarter of 2019.

第三季度，我們的帳戶基礎拖欠率增加了 15 個基點，達到 2.24%，這與我們上季度討論的季節性趨勢一致，低於 2019 年第三季末疫情前 2.78% 的拖欠率。

We expect that the delinquency rate will increase modestly due to seasonality in the fourth quarter before considering any impacts from Hurricane Helene and Milton, the in-force premium yield was 38.9 basis points in the quarter compared to 38.4 basis points last quarter.

我們預計，在考慮颶風海倫和米爾頓的影響之前，第四季度拖欠率將因季節性因素而小幅上升，本季有效保費收益率為 38.9 個基點，而上季度為 38.4 個基點。

The increase in the quarter was due in part to updating our method for estimating the current mortgage amount of our in-force loans, which resulted in lower insurance in force and a 0.2 basis point increase in our in-force premium yield for the quarter.

本季成長的部分原因是更新了我們估算有效貸款當前抵押貸款金額的方法，這導致有效保險減少，本季有效保費收益率增加了 0.2 個基點。

We continue to expect the in-force premium yield will remain relatively flat for the year. The book yield on the investment portfolio was 3.8% from a year ago and a marginal increase quarter over quarter as the yield on cash and cash equivalents declined offsetting improvements from reinvestment.

我們繼續預期今年有效保費收益率將保持相對穩定。投資組合的帳面收益率較上年同期為 3.8%，環比小幅增長，原因是現金和現金等價物收益率下降，抵消了再投資帶來的改善。

Net investment income was $62 million in the quarter of $1 million sequentially and up $7 million in the third quarter last year. During the third quarter, the reinvestment rates in our fixed income portfolio continued to be above the book yield.

淨投資收益為 6,200 萬美元，比上一季增加 100 萬美元，比去年第三季增加 700 萬美元。第三季度，我們固定收益投資組合的再投資率持續高於帳面收益率。

We expect to book yield to continue to increase, but at a slower rate, reinvestment rates are facing downward pressure with the expectation of more rate cuts through the end of next year. In addition, the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut in September and significant declines in yields across the treasury curve, cost fixed income prices to rise resulting in the unrealized loss position on our investment portfolio, improving by $163 million in the quarter.

我們預期帳面殖利率將持續上升，但成長放緩，再投資率面臨下行壓力，預計到明年年底還會有更多降息。此外，聯準會9月降息50個基點以及國債殖利率大幅下降，導致固定收益價格上漲，導致我們的投資組合未實現損失部位在本季增加了1.63億美元。

The increase in investment income has continued to benefit total revenue, which was $307 million in the quarter compared to $305 million last quarter and $297 million in the third quarter last year. We remain focused on operational efficiency and expense management.

投資收入的增加持續有利於總收入，本季總收入為 3.07 億美元，而上一季為 3.05 億美元，去年第三季為 2.97 億美元。我們仍然專注於營運效率和費用管理。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $53 million, down from $55 million last quarter and flat with the third quarter last year. We expect the full year operating expenses will be in the range we provided throughout the year of $215 million to $225 million.

本季營運費用為 5,300 萬美元，低於上季的 5,500 萬美元，與去年第三季持平。我們預計全年營運費用將在我們全年提供的 2.15 億美元至 2.25 億美元範圍內。

Our operating results, together with our strong balance sheet, enabled us to grow book value per share to $20.66, up 19% compared to a year ago, while returning $625 million of capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and reducing outstanding shares by 8%.

我們的經營績效加上強勁的資產負債表，使我們的每股帳面價值增至20.66 美元，比一年前成長19%，同時透過股利和股票回購向股東返還6.25 億美元資本，並將流通股減少8 股%。

As Tim discussed, our well-established reinsurance program, which includes the use of forward commitment, quota share agreements and excess of loss agreements executed in either the traditional or Island market, is a key component of our capital management strategy.

正如蒂姆所討論的，我們完善的再保險計劃，包括使用遠期承諾、配額份額協議以及在傳統或島嶼市場執行的超額損失協議，是我們資本管理戰略的關鍵組成部分。

These agreements reduce the volatility of losses and adverse macroeconomic environments and provide diversification and flexibility to our sources of capital. Our overall reinsurance strategy is to prioritize coverage on the most recent butcher vintages and future NIW and to recapture risk on seasoned book year vintages is this the reinsurance no longer offers enough tail risk protection and stress scenarios.

這些協議減少了損失的波動性和不利的宏觀經濟環境，並為我們的資本來源提供了多樣化和靈活性。我們的整體再保險策略是優先承保最近的屠宰年份和未來的國家利益豁免，並重新捕獲經驗豐富的帳本年份年份的風險，因為再保險不再提供足夠的尾部風險保護和壓力情景。

Quarter share reinsurance is the foundation of our program as we value the forward commitment and certainty of coverage and have been consistent quota share buyers for more than a decade. In October, we further bolstered our reinsurance program with a multi-year 40% quota share agreement with a panel of highly rated reinsurers that will cover most of our policies written in 2025 and 2026.

四分之一份額再保險是我們計劃的基礎，因為我們重視前瞻性承諾和承保範圍的確定性，並且十多年來一直是配額份額買家。10 月，我們與一組高評級再保險公司簽訂了一份多年期 40% 配額份額協議，進一步加強了我們的再保險計劃，該協議將涵蓋我們 2025 年和 2026 年承保的大部分保單。

We also elected to cancel the quota share treaties covering our 2021 NIW effective December 31, 2024. Both of these actions are consistent with our reinsurance strategy and follow the same approach we have taken in recent years to managing our overall risk and capital positions. one further comment before turning it back over to Tim.

我們也選擇取消涵蓋 2021 年國家利益豁免的配額份額條約，自 2024 年 12 月 31 日起生效。這兩項行動都符合我們的再保險策略，並遵循我們近年來管理整體風險和資本狀況所採取的相同方法。在將其轉回給蒂姆之前，還有進一步的評論。

At quarter end, MGIC's available assets exceeded PMIERs required assets by $2.5 billion for PMIERs excess level will fluctuate with the timing of dividend payments and reinsurance transactions. And we expect to $400 million dividend from MGIC holding company and the cancellation of the 2021 quatre share will result in a decrease in our PMIERs excess level at year end.

截至季末，MGIC 的可用資產超出 PMIER 所需資產 25 億美元，因為 PMIER 的超額水準將隨著股息支付和再保險交易的時間而波動。我們預計 MGIC 控股公司的 4 億美元股息以及取消 2021 年四股股份將導致我們的 PMIER 超額水準在年底下降。

And with that, let me turn it back over to Tim.

接下來，讓我把它轉回給提姆。

Thanks, Nathan. In closing, we continue to successfully execute our business strategies and deliver meaningful return on equity and steps are as demonstrated by our third-quarter results. While some uncertainties persist, housing fundamentals and underwriting standards remain solid in the near term, economic outlook is generally positive.

謝謝，內森。最後，我們繼續成功執行我們的業務策略並實現有意義的股本回報，我們的第三季業績證明了我們所採取的步驟。儘管一些不確定因素仍然存在，但住房基本面和承保標準在短期內仍然穩固，經濟前景總體樂觀。

We are confident in our leadership position in the market to remain committed to delivering best in class solutions and service to our customers and creating long-term value for our stakeholders. With that, Gerald, let's say questions.

我們對自己在市場中的領導地位充滿信心，將繼續致力於為客戶提供一流的解決方案和服務，並為利害關係人創造長期價值。傑拉德，接下來我們來提問吧。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Terry Ma, Barclays.

馬特里，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, thank you. Good morning. Maybe just a housekeeping question to start off with, was there a change to how you guys report static pool delinquency curves? Look at slide 12 in your deck, the curves you put out -- the vintage curves you put out this quarter. Look kind of different into once you put out in this slide last quarter,

嘿，謝謝你。早安.也許只是一個開始的管理問題，你們報告靜態泳池拖欠曲線的方式是否有改變？看看你幻燈片中的第 12 張投影片，你發布的曲線——你本季發布的老式曲線。上個季度在這張投影片中發布後，您會發現有些不同，

Terry, it's Nathan, I we did the update just how frequently the data points behind those curves are. So previously we were really reporting as on a full year, like an annual basis and now we're doing at each of the data points on the curve as each quarter. So the full year amounts are there same, but there's more data points of the curve might look a little bit different there.

特里，我是內森，我們更新了這些曲線後面的數據點的頻率。因此，以前我們實際上是按全年（如年度）進行報告，現在我們按每個季度對曲線上的每個數據點進行報告。因此，全年的金額是相同的，但曲線的更多數據點可能看起來有點不同。

Got it. Okay. And then maybe any color you're seeing on just performance of the 2022 and 2023 vintages. You already kind of mentioned that the cure rates are coming in better than your expectations? Maybe you could just talk about entry into default. It looks like you noted '22 and '23 curves are kind of performing worse than '21. The ones who was the kind of look forward and those season more, should we expect the total default rate to start exceeding the pre-pandemic levels? Thank you.

知道了。好的。然後也許是您在 2022 年和 2023 年年份的表現中看到的任何顏色。您已經提到治癒率比您的預期好？也許你可以只談論進入預設狀態。看起來您注意到 '22 和 '23 曲線的表現比 '21 差。那些充滿期待的人，以及那些更期待的人，我們是否應該預期總違約率將開始超過疫情前的水平？謝謝。

Terry, it's Nathan again. I mean, I certainly think over time that's possible. I mean, excluding potentially in the impact from the hurricanes that I don't think that's likely to happen in the near term. I mean, like we said in the prepared remarks of seasonally, our business has typically we've seen increases in the delinquent the rate in the back half of the year and then decreases in that rate certainly in the first quarter and oftentimes in the first half of the year.

特里，又是內森。我的意思是，我當然認為隨著時間的推移這是可能的。我的意思是，排除颶風的潛在影響，我認為短期內不太可能發生這種情況。我的意思是，就像我們在準備好的季節性評論中所說的那樣，我們的業務通常會在下半年看到拖欠率增加，然後在第一季肯定會出現拖欠率下降，而且通常是在第一季半年。

And we saw that last year for delinquency rate increase of 16 or 17 basis points in the first half of the year. -- I'm sorry that's right. And then decreased in the -- or sorry, rather increase in the second half of the year. We saw the same decrease in the first half of this year. The increase in Q3 or 15 basis points versus I think it was 10 basis points in the third quarter last year.

我們看到去年上半年的拖欠率增加了 16 或 17 個基點。 ——抱歉，是這樣的。然後在下半年下降——或者抱歉，下半年有所增加。今年上半年我們也看到了同樣的下降。第三季的增幅為 15 個基點，而我認為去年第三季的增幅為 10 個基點。

It's in line with what we expect as you can see on those delinquency curves. I do think for 2022, vintage looks like it is performing now marginally worse from a new delinquency perspective. And then the other books surrounded either '21 or '23. But these are still very, very good levels.

正如您在這些拖欠曲線上看到的那樣，這符合我們的預期。我確實認為，從新的犯罪角度來看，2022 年復古葡萄酒的表現似乎略有惡化。然後其他書要么圍繞“21”，要么圍繞“23”。但這些仍然是非常非常好的水平。

And the other thing that we track is looking at how different cohorts are curing, what is the cumulative cure rates at various points in time. And if we look at that by vintage, we really don't see much difference right now. So bought something that will continue to monitor. And if there is some thing of note to report, we certainly will I think right now.

我們追蹤的另一件事是觀察不同人群的治癒情況，不同時間點的累積治癒率是多少。如果我們按年份來看的話，我們現在確實看不出有多大區別。所以買了一些會繼續監控的東西。如果有什麼值得注意的事情需要報告，我們現在肯定會想到。

Well, I think that all the books vintages are performing quite well, both from a new delinquency perspective and once loans are delinquent power, that curing, I think the cumulative cure rates continue to be quite strong, which again, has led to significant favorable development for us this quarter.

嗯，我認為所有的書籍年份都表現得很好，無論是從新的拖欠角度來看，還是一旦貸款成為拖欠的力量，我認為累積治愈率仍然相當強勁，這再次導致了顯著的有利我們本季度的發展。

Bose George, KBW.

博斯·喬治，KBW。

Good morning. In your new insurance written grew far more meaningfully than the couple of other companies have reported so far. Does that really just noise or anything different in terms of how you're positioning this quarter?

早安.在你們的新保險中，核保業務的成長比其他幾家公司迄今所報告的要有意義得多。這真的只是噪音還是與您本季的定位有什麼不同？

Yeah, Bose, I think-- we think that the market overall probably grew a little bit. But I think it's also fair to say that we think we probably grew some market share this quarter. Last quarter alluded to with our broad customer base, which we think is sort of the broad the industry that for a price neutral with the market and the risk based pricing world, we're going to end up with higher market share overall.

是的，Bose，我認為——我們認為整個市場可能會有所成長。但我認為公平地說，我們認為本季我們可能會增加一些市場佔有率。上個季度提到了我們廣泛的客戶群，我們認為這是一個廣泛的行業，對於市場和基於風險的定價世界的價格中立，我們最終將獲得更高的整體市場份額。

Ultimately, we're focused more on the long term of versus quarter over quarter market share more on what returns can we get for the capital we deployed. But I think it's fair to say we probably grew some market share this quarter, probably more in line with the us being probably more and more in line on price in the risk base around that. We were especially say, first quarter this year.

最終，我們更關注長期市場份額與逐季度市場份額的比較，並更關注我們所部署的資本可以獲得什麼回報。但我認為可以公平地說，本季我們可能會增加一些市場份額，這可能更符合美國在風險基礎上可能越來越符合價格的情況。我們特別說的是，今年第一季。

Okay, thanks. And then going back to credit, what was the mark to market loan to value on the '22, '23 vintage delinquencies compared to some of the older stuff?

好的，謝謝。然後回到信貸問題，與一些較舊的貸款相比，'22、'23 年份拖欠的按市值計價的貸款價值是多少？

Yes, Bose, this is Nathan. And we have been some we haven't talked about as much about the mark to market on various cohorts, especially on delinquent loans, just because our view is while we see similar numbers. So what you'll see more broadly reported. The situations that were most concerned about are the situations that aren't experiencing average home price appreciation.

是的，Bose，這是內森。我們一直沒有過多地談論各種群體的市價，特別是拖欠貸款，只是因為我們的觀點是，儘管我們看到了類似的數字。所以你會看到更廣泛的報道。最擔心的情況是平均房價沒有上漲的情況。

So certainly, the 2021 and prior vintages have experienced on a pro forma basis us a tremendous amount of home price appreciation. I'm a little bit less for the '22 vintage and then for '23 and '24, partly due to home price appreciation being more modest.

因此，毫無疑問，2021 年及之前的年份在預計的基礎上經歷了巨大的房價升值。我對 22 年年份的看法要少一些，然後對 23 年和 24 年年份的看法要少一些，部分原因是房價升值幅度較小。

But but maybe most importantly, just those are such recent vintages, you're not as much on those, but even in rising home price environments where the average mark to market is quite low, we still see losses. We still see claim events. So I think it matters from a maybe stress testing and overall book position, how we feel about capital. But I think tried to emphasize that a little bit less on delinquent loans.

但也許最重要的是，這些都是最近的年份，你對這些年份的關注度並不高，但即使在房價上漲的環境中，平均市價相當低，我們仍然會看到損失。我們仍然看到索賠事件。因此，我認為從壓力測試和整體帳面狀況來看，我們對資本的看法很重要。但我認為試圖強調一點，少一點拖欠貸款。

Okay, great. Thank you. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。謝謝。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

Hey, good morning and thank you for taking my question. Maybe I'll just start with the premium rate and the Canadian market share gain this quarter looks like a premium rates stabilize. Do I think the direct premium rate actually ticked up?

嘿，早上好，謝謝你回答我的問題。也許我會從保費率開始，本季加拿大市場份額的成長看起來保費率穩定了。我認為直接保費率實際上上漲了嗎？

Can you comment on what drove that? Was the pricing actions you took just more a function of portfolio to a lower also maybe just take the opportunity to comment on pricing and become competitive environment. What are you seeing right now?

您能評論一下是什麼推動了這一點嗎？您採取的定價行動是否更多是投資組合的函數，也可能只是藉此機會評論定價並成為競爭環境。你現在看到什麼？

Yes, I can start here and if Nathan wants to add anything that, I think when you look at the average premium rate on the portfolio, right, it's not just what you're bringing on, it's also what's falling off on. And so I think it's while we're happy that it moved up a little bit this quarter. I think as Nathan said, in prepared remarks we view that as relatively stable, which we thought it would be over the course of the year.

是的，我可以從這裡開始，如果內森想添加任何內容，我認為當你查看投資組合的平均溢價率時，對吧，這不僅是你帶來的，也是下降的。因此，我認為我們很高興它本季略有上升。我認為正如內森所說，在準備好的發言中，我們認為相對穩定，我們認為這種情況將在今年內保持穩定。

From a competitive dynamic standpoint, again, it's the competitive market. I think it is good that the average premium rate is staying relatively stable. I think as I alluded to and my last response on for Bose, when we're priced sort of more on par with the market and the risk base world.

從競爭動態的角度來看，這又是競爭市場。我認為平均保費率保持相對穩定是件好事。我認為正如我所提到的以及我上次對 Bose 的回應，我們的定價與市場和風險基礎世界更加接近。

We're probably going to get a little bit outsized share. That's not the net set a goal we have by itself, but it is something that sort of more of an output. I think early this year, we probably were a little bit off, but the reality is pricing goes up and goes down in different spots, right? We make adjustments on a regular basis, depending upon different risk factors.

我們可能會獲得一點過大的份額。這並不是我們自己設定的目標，但它更像是一種輸出。我認為今年年初，我們可能有點偏離，但現實是價格在不同的地方上漲和下跌，對嗎？我們根據不同的風險因素定期進行調整。

And so it's tough to say pricing's up or down specifically because we're making adjustments that are sometimes up sometimes down. And that could mean the difference between sort of winning business are not in some regards and for other customers that doesn't make as much of a different. So again, I think it's been something that we've been very comfortable wit the capital being able to deploy. We're getting really solid returns on that business. And that's been true for a long time now.

因此，很難具體地說定價是上漲還是下跌，因為我們正在進行的調整有時會上漲，有時會下跌。這可能意味著，在某些方面，成功的業務與其他客戶之間的差異並不大，而對於其他客戶來說，差異並沒有那麼大。再說一次，我認為我們對能夠部署資本感到非常滿意。我們從這項業務中獲得了非常可觀的回報。很長一段時間以來都是如此。

Okay. Maybe just turning to persistencies. Can you just talk about your expectations on persistency. And particularly curious if you saw any change intra quarter? We had a little bit of a blip with rates coming, though. Did you see persistency pick low and that happened? Just any comments on persistency, maybe talk about the LTV on yield and -- maybe the note on your portfolio, any additional stats you can give us. Thank you.

好的。也許只是轉向堅持。能簡單談談您對堅持的期望嗎？特別好奇您是否看到季度內有任何變化？不過，我們在利率即將到來時遇到了一些小問題。您是否看到持久性選擇較低並且發生了這種情況？只是關於持久性的任何評論，也許談論收益率的生命週期價值，也許是你的投資組合的註釋，你可以給我們的任何其他統計數據。謝謝。

Yes, it's Nathan. I think persistency for us in this cycle has we think it's probably peaked, did close to 86% of the decline is saying or more tens of percentage points. So I mean down into the low 85s now, if rates do decline like we saw for maybe 30 or 45 days there, that will certainly pressure persistency.

是的，是內森。我認為我們在這個週期中的持續性我們認為它可能已經達到頂峰，確實有接近 86% 的下降，或者說下降了幾十個百分點。因此，我的意思是，現在跌至 85 美元的低點，如果利率確實像我們在 30 或 45 天看到的那樣下降，那肯定會給持久性帶來壓力。

But I think on the quarter of tens of basis or -- tens of percentage points are a couple of percentage points, not the level that we saw in certainly in 2021, 2022. And a lot of that has to do with like you're calling out the nature of the book that we have now is still a significant portion of the book is 4%, rates and below.

但我認為，以季度計算，幾十個百分點就是幾個百分點，而不是我們在 2021 年、2022 年看到的水平。這很大程度上與您所說的書的性質有關，我們現在擁有的書的很大一部分仍然是 4%，費率及以下。

And really, it's only the business that we've written over the last, say, 18 to 24 months that would be in the money or even close to it if rates were down 50 or 75 or 100 basis points from here. So I don't know that in any of our supplemental materials, we have no rate by vintage or things like that.

事實上，只有我們在過去（比如說，18 到 24 個月）寫下的業務，如果利率比現在下降 50、75 或 100 個基點，那麼才會實現盈利，甚至接近盈利。所以我不知道在我們的任何補充資料中，我們沒有按年份或類似的東西劃分的費率。

But that's certainly, I think, a good add and something that we can provide additional information on. But your largest books continue to be was 2020, 2021, 2022 vintages. And you've written at very low note rates. So we expect those to have high persistency for some time, even if rates were to come down pretty significantly from current levels.

但我認為，這無疑是一個很好的補充，我們可以提供更多資訊。但您最大的書籍仍然是 2020 年、2021 年、2022 年年份。而且你的筆記速度非常低。因此，我們預計這些利率將在一段時間內保持較高的持續性，即使利率較目前水準大幅下降。

Got it. And then just my last question, but just the expense outlook for the year. Any update that looks like you're coming in below, I guess there's some additional expenses related to the reinsurance deal you mentioned just the only termination, but just anything you can comment on expense outlook?

知道了。然後是我的最後一個問題，只是今年的費用前景。任何看起來像你在下面出現的更新，我想有一些與你提到的再保險交易相關的額外費用只是唯一的終止，但你可以對費用前景發表評論嗎？

Yes. here, it's Nathan again. I think just to clarify on the reinsurance, the termination fee will run through the ceded premium line, not of the expense line for Q4. We said in the prepared remarks that we expected expenses is this still be in the range that we initially gave in January and have given consistently now throughout the year of $215million to $225 million.

是的。又是內森。我想澄清一下再保險，終止費用將通過分出保費線，而不是第四季度的費用線。我們在準備好的發言中表示，我們預計支出仍處於我們最初在 1 月給出的範圍內，並且現在全年一直給出 2.15 億至 2.25 億美元的範圍。

So I think feel good about the actions that we've taken to be in a good spot going into 2025 and beyond. We'll have the expectation is that we'll update guidance for 2025 expenses at our Q4 call but directionally expect expenses to be lower in 2025 to 2024

因此，我認為我們對我們為在 2025 年及以後保持良好狀態而採取的行動感到滿意。我們預計，我們將在第四季度電話會議上更新 2025 年支出指引，但定向預計 2025 年至 2024 年支出將較低

Thank you.

謝謝。

Geoffrey Dunn, Dowling & Partners.

傑弗瑞‧鄧恩 (Geoffrey Dunn)，道林合夥人事務所。

Thank you. Good morning. Can you comment on the profit commission threshold for the new QSR?

謝謝。早安.您能否評論一下新 QSR 的利潤佣金門檻？

It's one of the book years is 63% of the other is 62%.

其中一本的年份是63%，另一本書的年份是62%。

I was going to say what was the process of going 40% out of the gate. In the past, you guys have typically now come out at 20%, then added 20% a year later or something like that. Why the change in process here?

我想說的是走出大門 40% 的過程是怎麼樣的。過去，你們通常會以 20% 的價格出爐，然後一年後增加 20% 或類似的價格。為什麼這裡要改變流程？

Yes, it's really a reaction to the market. Our approach has always been what is the reinsurance market telling us they want where's the capacity, whereas the right execution for us, our preference has always been to do longer forward term commitments.

是的，這確實是對市場的反應。我們的方法一直是再保險市場告訴我們他們想要什麼能力，而對我們來說正確的執行方式，我們的偏好始終是做出更長期的遠期承諾。

Our first quarter share deal covered almost three years. The one that we did in 2013 over time, the capacity to go out more than one year got narrower. So we shifted to doing some on a two-year basis somewhat of a one-year basis.

我們第一季的股票交易涵蓋了近三年。我們2013年做的，隨著時間的推移，出去一年以上的能力越來越窄。因此，我們轉向以兩年為基礎（某種程度上以一年為基礎）做一些事情。

I would say the demand and capacity in the space right now in the reinsurance market is quite attractive from our perspective. So that's hence the upsizing a little bit from what we've done recently as a 30% quota share level.

我想說，從我們的角度來看，目前再保險市場的需求和容量非常有吸引力。因此，這就是我們最近所做的 30% 配額份額水準的稍微擴大。

So the 40% level and then felt like we got what is very, very attractive pricing, good cost of capital for us. And most importantly, just no having that capital commitment and risk management overlay for the next two years of NIW in our business is something that we always value.

所以 40% 的水平，然後感覺我們得到了非常非常有吸引力的定價，對我們來說資本成本很好。最重要的是，我們始終重視未來兩年 NIW 業務中的資本承諾和風險管理覆蓋範圍。

But if the market doesn't have enough capacity for that multiyear, we've found other ways to transact. But I think very, very happy with the execution that we have here right now. And I think it's it's estimates of the reinsurance market in this space getting broader, but also performance in this space has been quite good for some time.

但如果市場沒有足夠的容量來應對多年，我們會找到其他交易方式。但我認為對我們現在的執行情況非常非常滿意。我認為這是對這個領域再保險市場的估計變得更廣泛，而且這個領域的表現在一段時間以來一直相當不錯。

And you had similar to the primary market share. It's not growing as much as it was. The reinsurance market for mortgage credit risk isn't growing as much as it was a couple of years ago, which is, I think, help thing with demand as well. So our preference, like I said, is the place on a forward basis, multiyear. And this is really the market telling us that there's capacity at attractive pricing for us to really accomplish our multiyear goals right now.

和你有類似的主要市場佔有率。它的成長沒有以前那麼快了。抵押貸款信用風險再保險市場的成長速度不如幾年前，我認為這也有助於滿足需求。因此，正如我所說，我們的偏好是長期的、多年的。這確實是市場告訴我們，我們現在有能力以有吸引力的價格真正實現我們的多年目標。

That sounds good. I appreciate the comments.

聽起來很好。我很欣賞這些評論。

Scott Heleniak, RBC Capital Markets.

Scott Heleniak，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Yes, thanks. Good morning. Just wondering if you could I know it's early still, but could you touch on any impact you think the hurricanes might have on delinquencies in the fourth quarter, maybe the first quarter next year?

是的，謝謝。早安.我只是想知道，我是否知道現在還為時過早，但您能否談談您認為颶風可能對第四季度（也許是明年第一季）的拖欠率產生的影響？

Are you seeing any impact yet? And would you anticipate seeing very high cure rates like we have in past storms? Anything you can share on what you're thinking about that at this point?

您看到任何影響了嗎？您是否預計會看到像過去風暴中那樣非常高的治癒率？您現在對此的想法有什麼可以分享的嗎？

Yes, it's Tim, and I'll start off. I appreciate the question, Scott. It is too early again, normally for us, it's got to be two months delinquent before we'd sort of see it come through. And so really haven't seen anything yet. We would expect to see from some activity in the fourth quarter result. But as you alluded to for us, we've had these horrible events like hurricanes happened historically, they've had higher cure rate in our average delinquency, significantly higher cure rates.

是的，我是提姆，我要開始了。我很欣賞這個問題，斯科特。現在又太早了，通常對我們來說，必須拖欠兩個月才能看到它完成。所以真的還沒看到任何東西。我們預計會從第四季度的一些活動中看到結果。但正如您向我們提到的，我們歷史上發生過颶風等可怕事件，它們在我們的平均犯罪中具有更高的治癒率，治癒率明顯更高。

And so it will be something if we do get on delinquencies coming into the fourth quarter, it's something we'll have to look at from a reserving standpoint of how do we reserve for those that we believe are the influx related to hurricanes that have a higher propensity to cure overtime on based upon, sort of federal funds that come in for release and it's a life event, but it's a hopefully a temporary one that ultimately they get back on their feet versus our average delinquency that is maybe more related to a life event that could be more permanent in nature was job loss, things like that. That has -- still has a high propensity cure, but just not the rate that we've seen for financial disasters like hurricanes.

因此，如果我們在第四季度確實出現拖欠情況，這將是一件大事，我們必須從儲備的角度來考慮，我們如何為那些我們認為與颶風有關的湧入的人儲備更高的解決加班問題的傾向是基於某種聯邦基金的發放，這是一個生活事件，但希望這只是暫時的，最終他們會重新站起來，而我們的平均拖欠率可能更與生活中本質上更持久的事件是失業之類的事情。這仍然具有很高的治癒率，但只是沒有達到我們所看到的颶風等金融災難的治癒率。

And that's that makes sense. That's helpful. And then the other question I was just on the what does your new money yield versus expiring yield and any floating rate debt exposure that you can point out? Just trying to get the sensitivity to interest rates as they continue to probably go down.

這就是有道理的。這很有幫助。然後我問的另一個問題是，您的新貨幣收益率與到期收益率以及您可以指出的任何浮動利率債務風險是多少？只是試圖了解利率可能繼續下降的敏感度。

Scott, in terms of new money rates recently? I think low [5s] maybe to mid-5% range against the cost of 4% book yield on the long portfolio and then exposure to floating rate, there is a little bit. We have a mid single digit size, some CLO portfolio that's floating rate and some other things.

史考特，最近的新貨幣利率如何？我認為，相對於長期投資組合 4% 帳面收益率的成本，然後採用浮動利率，低 [5s] 可能到中 5% 的範圍，有一點。我們有中等個位數的規模、一些浮動利率的 CLO 投資組合以及其他一些東西。

But generally, duration of the portfolio is around four years. So I think our biggest exposure to shorter term rates would just be on the cash and cash equivalents portfolio where we've benefited somewhat from having no 5% plus rates there. So if the Fed continues to cut rates, that will be a headwind. But in terms of exposure on a longer and true investment portfolio, it's relatively modest.

但一般來說，投資組合的期限約為四年。因此，我認為我們對短期利率的最大風險只是現金和現金等價物投資組合，我們從沒有 5% 以上的利率中獲益匪淺。因此，如果聯準會繼續降息，這將是一個阻力。但就長期且真實的投資組合的風險敞口而言，其規模相對較小。

Got it. Appreciate the answers.

知道了。感謝您的回答。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the question-and answer-session. I would now like to turn it back to management for closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，問答環節到此結束。我現在想將其轉回給管理層以供結束語。

Thank you, Gerald. I want to thank everyone for your interest in MGIC today's election day. I hope everyone find time to get out and vote if you haven't done so already, have a great rest of your week.

謝謝你，傑拉德。我要感謝大家對今天選舉日 MGIC 的關注。我希望每個人都能抽出時間出去投票（如果你還沒有這樣做的話），祝你本週好好休息。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的會議。這確實結束了該程式。您現在可以斷開連線。