MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the MGIC Investment Corporation second-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 MGIC Investment Corporation 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I will now turn the conference over to Dianna Higgins, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將會議交給投資者關係主管戴安娜·希金斯 (Dianna Higgins)。請繼續。

Thank you, Andrew. Good morning. Welcome, everyone. Thank you for your interest in MGIC. Joining me on the call to discuss our results for the second quarter are Tim Mattke, Chief Executive Officer and Nathan Colson, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Risk Officer.

謝謝你，安德魯。早安.歡迎大家。感謝您對 MGIC 的興趣。執行長 Tim Mattke 和財務長兼首席風險長內森柯森 (Nathan Colson) 與我一起參加電話會議，討論我們第二季的業績。

Our press release, which contains MGIC’s second quarter financial results was issued yesterday and is available on our website at mtg.mgic.com under Newsroom, includes additional information about our quarterly results that we will refer to during the call today. It also includes a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to their most comparable GAAP measures.

我們的新聞稿昨天發布，其中包含MGIC 第二季度財務業績，可在我們的網站mtg.mgic.com 的Newsroom 下獲取，其中還包括我們將在今天的電話會議中提及的有關季度業績的更多資訊。它還包括非公認會計準則財務指標與其最具可比性的公認會計準則財務指標的調節。

In addition, we posted on our website a quarterly supplement that contains information pertaining to our primary risk in force and other information you may find valuable. As a reminder, from time-to-time, we may post information about our underwriting guidelines and other presentations or corrections to past presentations on our website.

此外，我們還在網站上發布了季度補充資料，其中包含與我們有效的主要風險相關的資訊以及您可能認為有價值的其他資訊。謹此提醒，我們可能會不時在我們的網站上發布有關核保指南和其他簡報或對過去簡報的更正的資訊。

Before we get started today, I want to remind everybody that during the call today, we may make comments about our expectations of the future. Actual results could differ materially from those contained in these forward-looking statements. Additional information about the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed on the call are contained in our 8-K and 10-Q that were also filed yesterday. If we make any forward-looking statements, we are not undertaking an obligation to update those statements in the future in light of subsequent events. No one should rely on the fact that such guidance or forward-looking statements are current at any time other than the time of this call or the issuance of our 8-K and 10-Q.

在今天開始之前，我想提醒大家，在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會就我們對未來的期望發表評論。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中所包含的結果有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果與電話會議中討論的結果大不相同的因素的更多資​​訊包含在我們昨天提交的 8-K 和 10-Q 中。如果我們做出任何前瞻性陳述，我們不承擔根據後續事件在未來更新這些陳述的義務。除了本次電話會議或發布 8-K 和 10-Q 之外，任何人都不應依賴這樣的事實：此類指導或前瞻性陳述在任何時間均有效。

Now, with that, I now have the pleasure to turn the call over to Tim.

現在，我很高興將電話轉給提姆。

Thank you, Dianna, and good morning, everyone. I am pleased to report that we had another solid quarter and, with that, an excellent first half of the year. We have been consistently generating mid-teen returns on equity while returning meaningful capital to our shareholders and creating long-term value for our stakeholders.

謝謝戴安娜，大家早安。我很高興地向大家報告，我們又度過了一個穩定的季度，因此，今年上半年也表現出色。我們一直在創造中位數的股本回報率，同時向股東返還有意義的資本，並為利害關係人創造長期價值。

Our results demonstrate the strength and flexibility of our business model, prudent risk management strategies, and focus on through-the-cycle performance. Coupled with our ongoing commitment to serve our customers with quality offerings and solutions, we're able to help borrowers achieve the dream of affordable homeownership sooner.

我們的業績證明了我們業務模式的實力和靈活性、審慎的風險管理策略以及對整個週期績效的關注。再加上我們持續致力於為客戶提供優質的產品和解決方案，我們能夠幫助借款人更快實現擁有經濟適用房的夢想。

Now let's dive into the highlights of our financial results for the second quarter. For the quarter, we earned net income of $204 million and generated an annualized 16% return on equity. Insurance in force, the main driver of revenue, ended the quarter at $292 billion up slightly in the quarter. Our insurance in force has remained relatively flat over the past several quarters consistent with what we expected. Annual persistency ended the first quarter at 85% down slightly in the quarter.

現在讓我們深入了解第二季財務業績的亮點。本季度，我們的淨利潤為 2.04 億美元，年化股本回報率為 16%。有效保險是營收的主要推動力，該季度末的保險金額為 2,920 億美元，較本季略有成長。我們的有效保險在過去幾季中保持相對平穩，與我們的預期一致。第一季的年度持續率在本季略有下降 85%。

We wrote $13.5 billion in new insurance and new insurance we write continues to have strong credit characteristics. Our focus on prudent risk management strategies has enabled us to build and maintain a strong and balanced insurance portfolio. We continue to be very pleased with the overall credit quality and performance of our portfolio. This credit performance continues to be a tailwind for our financial results.

我們承保了 135 億美元的新保險，而且我們承保的新保險仍然具有很強的信用特徵。我們對審慎風險管理策略的關注使我們能夠建立並維持強大且平衡的保險投資組合。我們仍然對我們投資組合的整體信用品質和表現感到非常滿意。這種信用表現仍然是我們財務表現的推動力。

As we expected at the beginning of the year, this year's MI market is similar to last year's market. The mortgage origination industry continues to be hindered by the higher interest rate environment resulting in affordability challenges and the supply of homes for sale being limited, creating pent up demand. While the current supply demand dynamic creates challenges for first time homebuyers, it continues to support home prices. Pent-up demand and the strong desire of the millennial and Gen Z populations to own homes are reasons to continue to be optimistic about the MI opportunities in the long run.

正如我們年初預期的那樣，今年的MI市場與去年的市場類似。抵押貸款發放行業繼續受到利率上升環境的阻礙，導致負擔能力面臨挑戰，待售房屋供應有限，從而產生了被壓抑的需求。雖然目前的供需動態給首次購屋者帶來了挑戰，但它繼續支撐著房價。從長遠來看，被壓抑的需求以及千禧世代和 Z 世代人群擁有住房的強烈願望是我們繼續對 MI 機會持樂觀態度的原因。

Shifting to our capital activities, the strength and flexibility of our capital position in the quarter supported the repurchase of 7.6 million shares of common stock for $157 million and the payment of quarterly common stock dividend for a total of $31 million. This represents a 92% payout ratio of this quarter's net income, and as previously announced, in the quarter, we paid a $350 million dividend from MGIC to the holding company ended the quarter with $990 million of liquidity at the holding company.

轉向我們的資本活動，本季我們資本狀況的實力和靈活性支持以 1.57 億美元回購 760 萬股普通股，並支付總計 3100 萬美元的季度普通股股息。這代表了本季淨利潤的92% 的派息率，正如先前宣布的，在本季度，我們從MGIC 向控股公司支付了3.5 億美元的股息，本季度末，控股公司的流動性為9.9 億美元。

In addition, in April, the Board authorized additional $750 million share repurchase program, and last week, the Board authorized a 13% increase to our quarterly common stock dividend to $0.13 per share, marking four consecutive years of dividend increases with a compound annual growth rate of 21% over that period.

此外，4月份，董事會批准了額外7.5億美元的股票回購計劃，上週，董事會批准將我們的季度普通股股息增加13%至每股0.13美元，標誌著股息連續四年以複合年增長率成長同期成長率為21%。

Maintaining financial strength and flexibility are the cornerstones of our approach to capital management. While we prioritize prudent growth over capital return, opportunities to grow our insurance in force over the last few years have been constrained due to the size in the market. During that same time, operating results credit performance have been exceptional leading to higher payout ratios in recent quarters.

維持財務實力和靈活性是我們資本管理方法的基石。雖然我們優先考慮審慎成長而不是資本回報，但由於市場規模，過去幾年擴大我們現有保險的機會受到了限制。同時，經營業績信貸表現異常出色，導致最近幾季的派息率更高。

As part of our capital management, we assess current and expected future operating environments and the best options to deploy capital in order to maximize long-term shareholder value. We continually monitor our risk and capital position and as long as credit performance is excellent and our risk position is stable or improving, I would expect our capital levels remain above our targets at both MGIC and the holding company and payout ratios will remain elevated.

作為資本管理的一部分，我們評估當前和預期的未來營運環境以及部署資本的最佳選擇，以實現長期股東價值最大化。我們不斷監控我們的風險和資本狀況，只要信貸表現良好並且我們的風險狀況穩定或改善，我預計我們的資本水平仍高於 MGIC 和控股公司的目標，派息率將保持在較高水平。

Taking a step back to a long-term view provides perspective on our ability to grow while maintaining financial strength and managing our capital position. We faced a wide range of operating environments over the last five years and our dynamic approach to capital management while always prioritizing financial strength and flexibility to serve our stakeholders well.

退一步以長遠的眼光看待我們在保持財務實力和管理資本狀況的同時實現成長的能力。在過去的五年裡，我們面臨著各種各樣的營運環境和我們動態的資本管理方法，同時始終優先考慮財務實力和靈活性，以便為我們的利害關係人提供良好的服務。

Over the last five years, we have increased our insurance in force by $78 billion or 36% from $214 billion to $292 billion. During that same period, we generated $3.4 billion of net income, $3.5 billion in operating cash flows, and GAAP equity increased by $1.1 billion after returning approximately $2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

過去五年，我們的有效保險增加了 780 億美元，即 36%，從 2,140 億美元增加到 2,920 億美元。同期，我們產生了 34 億美元的淨利潤、35 億美元的營運現金流，在透過股利和股票回購向股東返還約 20 億美元後，GAAP 股本增加了 11 億美元。

The combination of 97 million shares repurchased and the elimination of our legacy convertible debt has reduced diluted shares by 30%. The growth of our PMIERs excess from $1.1 billion to $2.4 billion during the same five-year period further demonstrates our commitment to maintaining robust financial strength.

回購 9700 萬股股票以及消除我們遺留的可轉換債務，使稀釋後的股票減少了 30%。在同一五年期間，我們的 PMIER 從 11 億美元超額成長至 24 億美元，進一步表明我們致力於保持強勁的財務實力。

With that, let me turn it over to Nathan to get into more details on our financial results for the quarter.

接下來，讓我將其轉交給內森，以詳細了解我們本季的財務表現。

Thanks, Tim. Good morning. As Tim mentioned, we had another quarter with excellent financial results. We earned net income of $0.77 per diluted share compared to $0.66 per diluted share last year. Adjusted net operating income was also $0.77 per diluted share compared to $0.68 last year. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP net income to adjusted net operating income can be found in our earnings release.

謝謝，蒂姆。早安.正如蒂姆所提到的，我們又一個季度取得了出色的財務表現。我們攤薄後每股淨利潤為 0.77 美元，而去年攤薄後每股淨利潤為 0.66 美元。調整後攤薄後每股營業淨收入也為 0.77 美元，而去年為 0.68 美元。公認會計原則淨利與調整後淨營業收入的詳細調節表可以在我們的收益報告中找到。

The results for the second quarter were reflective of the strong credit performance we continue to experience, which again led to favorable loss reserve development and resulted in a negative loss ratio for this quarter. Our re-estimation of ultimate losses on prior delinquencies resulted in $67 million of favorable loss reserve development in the quarter. The favorable development this quarter primarily came from delinquency notices we received in 2022 and 2023.

第二季的業績反映了我們持續經歷的強勁信貸表現，這再次導致了有利的損失準備金發展，並導致本季出現負損失率。我們對先前拖欠的最終損失進行了重新估計，導致本季有利的損失準備金增加了 6,700 萬美元。本季的有利發展主要來自我們在 2022 年和 2023 年收到的拖欠通知。

As cure rates on those delinquency notices continue to exceed our expectations, we have made favorable adjustments to our ultimate loss expectations. As a reminder, the delinquency notices we received during the quarter will include loans from many different book year vintages. We continue to maintain our initial ultimate loss assumptions relate new delinquencies from the most recent quarters.

由於這些拖欠通知的治癒率繼續超出我們的預期，我們對最終損失預期做出了有利的調整。提醒一下，我們在本季收到的拖欠通知將包括來自許多不同帳年年份的貸款。我們繼續維持與最近幾季新拖欠相關的最初最終損失假設。

Our delinquency inventory decreased in the second quarter by 3% with cures slightly outpacing new notices. We continue to expect that the level of new delinquency notices may increase in the second half of 2024 due to seasonality and the large books from 2020 through 2022 being in what were historically higher loss emergence years. The in-force premium yield was 38.4 basis points in the quarter, flat quarter over quarter. As I mentioned on the last call, given our expectations for another year of a higher persistency and a smaller MI market, we expect the in-force premium yields remain relatively flat for the year.

我們的拖欠庫存在第二季下降了 3%，修復速度略快於新通知的速度。我們繼續預計，由於季節性因素以及 2020 年至 2022 年的大量帳簿處於歷史上損失出現率較高的年份，2024 年下半年新的拖欠通知水準可能會增加。本季有效保費收益率為 38.4 個基點，環比持平。正如我在上次電話會議中提到的，考慮到我們對另一年更高的持續性和較小的 MI 市場的預期，我們預計今年有效保費收益率將保持相對穩定。

We remain disciplined in our approach to expense management and focused on operational efficiency. Operating expenses in the quarter were $55 million, down from $61 million last quarter, and $57 million in the second quarter last year. We continue to expect the full-year operating expenses will be in the range we previously provided of $215 million to $225 million.

我們在費用管理方法上保持嚴格，並專注於營運效率。本季營運費用為 5,500 萬美元，低於上一季的 6,100 萬美元，去年第二季的營運費用為 5,700 萬美元。我們仍然預計全年營運費用將在我們之前提供的 2.15 億美元至 2.25 億美元範圍內。

Our operating results together with our strong balance sheet enabled us to grow book value per share to $19.58 up 15% compared to a year ago after returning $568 million, of excess capital to shareholders through dividends and accretive share repurchases. While higher interest rates and the resulting lower valuations for fixed income investments continue to be a headwind for book value per share, higher interest rates have been a positive for the earnings potential of the investment portfolio. The book yield on the investment portfolio was 3.8% at the end of the second quarter, up 10 basis points in the quarter and up 55 basis points from a year ago.

我們的經營業績和強勁的資產負債表使我們透過股息和增值股票回購向股東返還了 5.68 億美元的超額資本，使每股帳面價值比一年前增長了 15%，達到 19.58 美元。雖然較高的利率和由此導致的固定收益投資估值較低仍然是每股帳面價值的不利因素，但較高的利率對投資組合的獲利潛力有利。第二季末投資組合的帳面報酬率為3.8%，季末上升10個基點，較去年同期上升55個基點。

Net investment income was $61 million in the quarter, up $1.7 million sequentially and up $9 million from the second quarter last year. The increase in investment income has benefited total revenue, which was $305 million in the quarter compared to $294 million last quarter $291 million in the second quarter last year.

本季淨投資收入為 6,100 萬美元，比上一季增加 170 萬美元，比去年第二季增加 900 萬美元。投資收入的增加使總收入受益，本季總收入為 3.05 億美元，而上一季為 2.94 億美元，去年第二季為 2.91 億美元。

During the second quarter, the reinvestment rates in our fixed income portfolio were above the book yield and assuming a similar interest rate environment, we expect the book yield to continue to increase, but at a slower rate as the increase in book yield continues to narrow the difference between our book yield and reinvestment rates.

第二季度，我們固定收益投資組合的再投資率高於帳面收益率，假設類似的利率環境，我們預期帳面收益率將持續成長，但隨著帳面收益率增幅持續收窄，成長速度將放緩我們的帳面收益率和再投資率之間的差異。

As Tim discussed, our approach to capital management is dynamic and intended to maintain financial strength that positions us to achieve our objectives in varying macroeconomic environments. MGIC's capital structure includes $6 billion of balance sheet capital. Our well-established reinsurance program remains integral to our and capital management strategies. In addition to reducing the volatility of losses and stress scenarios, our reinsurance agreements provide diversification and flexibility to our sources of capital at attractive costs and reduce our PMIERs required assets by $2.2 billion at the end of the second quarter.

正如蒂姆所討論的，我們的資本管理方法是動態的，旨在保持財務實力，使我們能夠在不同的宏觀經濟環境中實現我們的目標。MGIC 的資本結構包括 60 億美元的資產負債表資本。我們完善的再保險計劃仍然是我們和資本管理策略的組成部分。除了減少損失和壓力情境的波動性之外，我們的再保險協議還以具有吸引力的成本為我們的資本來源提供了多樣化和靈活性，並在第二季末將我們的PMIER 所需資產減少了22 億美元。

We further bolstered our reinsurance program in the second quarter with an excess of loss agreement with a panel of highly rated reinsurers to cover most of our 2024 NIW. This reinsurance agreement complements the 30% quota share agreement we had in place at the start of the year to cover the 2024 NIW.

我們在第二季進一步加強了我們的再保險計劃，與一組高評級再保險公司簽訂了超額損失協議，以涵蓋我們 2024 年 NIW 的大部分。這項再保險協議補充了我們在年初制定的 30% 配額份額協議，以涵蓋 2024 年國家利益豁免。

With that, let me turn it back over to Tim.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回給提姆。

Thanks, Nathan. In closing, we had another successful quarter and an excellent first half of the year. We have been consistently generating meaningful returns for our shareholders. Our balance sheet and liquidity remains strong. I continue to be encouraged by positive credit trends we are experiencing in our existing insurance portfolio, the favorable employment trends, and the resiliency of the housing market.

謝謝，內森。最後，我們又度過了一個成功的季度和出色的上半年。我們一直在為股東創造有意義的回報。我們的資產負債表和流動性仍然強勁。我繼續對我們現有保險組合中所經歷的積極信貸趨勢、有利的就業趨勢以及房地產市場的彈性感到鼓舞。

As we navigate the second half of the year, we remain confident in our position and leadership in the market as well as our ability to execute on our business strategies.

在我們度過下半年的過程中，我們對我們在市場中的地位和領導地位以及我們執行業務策略的能力仍然充滿信心。

With that, Andrew, let's take questions.

安德魯，讓我們提問。

(Operator Instructions) Soham Bhonsle, BTIG.

（操作員說明）Soham Bhonsle，BTIG。

So I'm looking at slide 5 in your deck, which is a really helpful chart and it looks like you've been able to sort of see 40% of your PMIER required assets to the reinsurance markets and I think, Nathan, you noted $2 billion of credit over time. Is there sort of a good way to think about sort of the optimal funding profile for you guys going forward?

所以我正在看你的幻燈片中的第 5 張投影片，這是一個非常有用的圖表，看起來你已經能夠看到 PMIER 所需資產的 40% 流向再保險市場，我認為 Nathan，你指出隨著時間的推移，信貸將達到20 億美元。有沒有一種好方法可以為你們考慮未來的最佳資金狀況？

I think that chart really does show how we really approach reinsurance, which is we try to concentrate our reinsurance buying on the most recent and future NIW. So if you look at that chart from 2020 and prior, when you look at what we're covering, we're not covering very much of that. Feel very comfortable with that risk and try to concentrate the deals that we do have like the excessive loss deal that we announced this quarter and previously the quota share agreement covering our 2024 business.

我認為該圖表確實顯示了我們如何真正對待再保險，即我們試圖將再保險購買集中在最近和未來的國家利益豁免上。因此，如果您查看 2020 年及之前的圖表，當您查看我們所涵蓋的內容時，我們並沒有涵蓋太多內容。對這種風險感到非常放心，並嘗試集中我們現有的交易，例如我們本季度宣布的超額虧損交易以及先前涵蓋我們 2024 年業務的配額份額協議。

So I don't think overall, we don't target a specific funding level from a reinsurance standpoint in the overall book, much more concentrated on trying to get reinsurance coverage on the most recent and future NIW.

因此，我認為總體而言，我們在整本書中不會從再保險的角度來確定具體的融資水平，而是更專注於嘗試獲得最新和未來國家利益豁免的再保險承保範圍。

Okay and then Tim, just zooming out a little bit, credit performance just remains stellar. It seems like the market -- the MI market seems pretty disciplined on pricing and everything feels really good right now, but maybe just walk us through how you're planning for downside scenarios from here and just making sure that we're not getting too comfortable with the current state of things right now?

好吧，蒂姆，稍微縮小一點，信用表現仍然很出色。市場似乎——MI 市場在定價方面似乎相當嚴格，現在一切感覺都很好，但也許請告訴我們您如何計劃從這裡開始的下行場景，並確保我們不會太過分對目前的狀況感到滿意嗎？

Yes, Soham, it's Tim. Appreciate the question. It's something I think that we do every day. I mean, being an insurance company, we always have to stay focused on the downside and we think about executing in the market and we think about pricing, our focus quite frankly is on the downside much more than it is on sort of our expectations, because that's we think that's critical to being a healthy company over the long run and we think that served us well for the better part of six decades.

是的，索漢姆，我是提姆。感謝這個問題。我認為這是我們每天都在做的事情。我的意思是，作為一家保險公司，我們始終必須關注下行趨勢，我們考慮在市場上執行，我們考慮定價，坦率地說，我們的重點是下行趨勢，而不是我們的預期，因為我們認為，從從長遠來看，這對於成為一家健康的公司至關重要，我們認為這在過去六年的大部分時間裡對我們很有幫助。

So it's something we're conscious of. We look for softening in any sort of credit. The good news is we haven't really seen it in our space, but it's something we have to remain very diligent on and be ready to adjust for. The good thing is with the tools we have these days, we can make moves really quickly from a pricing standpoint and we haven't been afraid to do that in the past.

所以這是我們意識到的事情。我們尋求任何形式的信貸軟化。好消息是我們還沒有在我們的領域真正看到它，但我們必須保持非常勤奮並做好調整的準備。好處是，利用我們現在擁有的工具，我們可以從定價的角度非常迅速地採取行動，而且我們過去並不害怕這樣做。

Bose George, KBW.

博斯·喬治，KBW。

Can we start this one on the new insurance written trends? Just with the companies that reported so far, you guys look like you're kind of behind of the range. Any thoughts there on market share or just trends in the market?

我們可以從新的保險承保趨勢開始這個主題嗎？就目前所報告的公司而言，你們看起來有點落後於這個範圍。對市場佔有率或市場趨勢有什麼想法嗎？

Yes, Bose, I think still one to report. I think we're coming in from a share perspective probably where we would expect to size the market is pretty similar to what we would have thought. Again, I don't look at any one quarter as, there's volatility that's going to be there. Our share can move a little bit here or there. So I think it's safe to say we gained a little bit, but it's mostly focused on are we getting the right return for the capital we're deploying, feel good about this quarter just like we felt good about last quarter as well.

是的，Bose，我想還有一個需要報告的地方。我認為我們是從股票的角度來看的，我們期望的市場規模可能與我們的想法非常相似。再說一遍，我不會關注任何一個季度，因為那裡將會出現波動。我們的份額可以在這裡或那裡稍微變動。因此，我認為可以肯定地說我們取得了一些進展，但主要關注的是我們是否為我們正在部署的資本獲得了正確的回報，對本季度的感覺良好，就像我們對上季度的感覺良好一樣。

I think as we move through the year here, we have wide customer base that gives us an opportunity to really be able to get business when we want to be able to win the business, and deploy the capital at good returns. So again, I think, yes, it's fair to say we may have picked up a little bit this quarter, but I think we look over a longer period of time, and sort of the amount of customers that we have activated and are able to do business with is another barometer as well.

我認為，隨著這一年的到來，我們擁有廣泛的客戶群，當我們希望能夠贏得業務並以良好的回報部署資本時，這給了我們真正能夠獲得業務的機會。所以，我再次認為，是的，可以公平地說，本季度我們可能有所回升，但我認為我們會著眼於更長的一段時間，以及我們已經激活並能夠吸引的客戶數量。一個晴雨表。

Okay. Makes sense. Thank you. And then actually in terms of capital return, how do you sort of balance the share price in terms of buybacks versus dividends? I mean the share price is up and if say it continues to do that, does that play a role at some point in terms of the mix?

好的。有道理。謝謝。那麼實際上就資本回報而言，您如何在回購和股利方面平衡股價？我的意思是股價上漲了，如果說它繼續上漲，那麼這是否會在某個時候在組合方面發揮作用？

Yes. Bose, it's Nathan. Certainly share price is an important consideration for us as we think about share repurchases. The number one consideration is, do we have excess capital at the holding company above the other things that we use capital at the holding company for, but recently the answer to that's been yes. So we have looked to increase payout ratios and have return more capital through share repurchases. But even in the month of July here, our repurchases were at little less than 1.1 times tangible book.

是的。博斯，我是內森。當然，當我們考慮股票回購時，股價是我們的一個重要考量。第一個考慮因素是，我們在控股公司是否擁有超出我們在控股公司使用資本的其他用途的多餘資本，但最近的答案是肯定的。因此，我們希望提高股息率，並透過股票回購返還更多資本。但即使在 7 月份，我們的回購也略低於有形帳面價值的 1.1 倍。

I think even with the increase in the share price, we still think that we're at very attractive levels for long-term value accretion via share repurchases. So obviously, the price has come up quite a bit in the sector and in our company, and I think that's great news. We still think we're trading at very attractive levels for long term value creation as well.

我認為，即使股價上漲，我們仍然認為，透過股票回購實現長期價值增值，我們仍處於非常有吸引力的水平。顯然，該行業和我們公司的價格已經上漲了很多，我認為這是個好消息。我們仍然認為，對於長期價值創造而言，我們的交易水準也非常有吸引力。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

馬特里，巴克萊銀行。

So is there any color you can provide on the characteristic or makeup of new notices this quarter and last quarter, the implied kind of provision per new notice was elevated compared to 2023. So any color you can provide there?

那麼，您是否可以提供有關本季度和上季度新通知的特徵或構成的任何信息，每個新通知的隱含條款與 2023 年相比有所提高。那麼你們可以在那裡提供任何顏色嗎？

Yes. Terry, its Nathan. I mean, on new notices, we do have some descriptive information in the portfolio supplement. I think the new notice claim rate that we used was the same as we have for the recent quarters at 7.5%. I think the biggest driver of maybe the provision on a per notice basis increasing then really has to do with the average exposure on new notices and that I think is to be expected as we start to shift more towards notices from the most recent five or seven years and less from, say 2012 and prior years, those have higher average loan balances, higher coverage levels, not higher risk amounts on a per loan basis.

是的。特里，是內森。我的意思是，根據新的通知，我們在投資組合補充中確實有一些描述性資訊。我認為我們使用的新通知索賠率與最近幾季的相同，均為 7.5%。我認為，也許按通知增加的規定的最大驅動力確實與新通知的平均曝光度有關，而且我認為隨著我們開始更多地轉向最近五到七個通知，這是可以預期的與2012 年及往年相比，這些貸款的平均貸款餘額更高，覆蓋範圍更高，但每筆貸款的風險金額更高。

So I think that's really driving up the severity assumption is the just the size of the policy, not an increase in the ratio that we're that we have kind of risk to reserve. We continue to target around 105% for new notices in terms of what we're reserving for compared to the risk on those delinquent items.

因此，我認為，真正推高嚴重性假設的是政策的規模，而不是我們保留風險的比率的增加。與那些拖欠項目的風險相比，我們的保留目標仍然是新通知的目標為 105% 左右。

Douglas Harter, UBS.

道格拉斯‧哈特，瑞銀集團。

Can you talk about the pricing you're seeing and how that compares to kind of the in force yield and kind of therefore kind of what your expectation is over the coming 12 months?

您能否談談您所看到的定價以及與有效收益率以及您對未來 12 個月的預期的比較如何？

Yes. I think, Doug, I can start and Nathan has anything to add. Again, we don't talk too specific on pricing. I think it's if you look at sort of our yields on the portfolio over the last few quarters, it has been really stable and I think if you think about over the course of the year here, that's really going to be dictated by the in-force portfolio any more than anything that comes down from a new business. So I think we can feel pretty confident saying that we expect that's going to be relatively stable over the remainder of the year, which I think we said coming into the year, we felt that was, the case.

是的。道格，我想我可以開始了，內森有什麼要補充的。再次強調，我們不會對定價進行過於具體的討論。我認為，如果你看看過去幾個季度我們投資組合的收益率，你會發現它非常穩定，我認為如果你考慮一下這一年的過程，這實際上將由內部因素決定。的任何影響力更能推動投資組合。因此，我認為我們可以非常有信心地說，我們預計今年剩餘時間將相對穩定，我認為我們在今年說過，我們認為情況確實如此。

So again, I think from an overall market perspective, we feel really comfortable with the price we're able to get on the capital redeploying. It's a good environment. Again, we always have to be careful about downside scenarios, but we feel that we're able to get really good return for the capital we're deploying in this current market.

所以，我再次認為，從整體市場的角度來看，我們對資本重新部署的價格感到非常滿意。這是一個很好的環境。同樣，我們始終必須小心不利的情況，但我們認為我們能夠為我們在當前市場上部署的資本獲得非常好的回報。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

Wanted to start with the cure rate a little bit up. Look, it's been pretty elevated the last couple of quarters, obviously, strong housing credit backdrop, but what I was really curious about and I'm trying to understand is what would need to change in the backdrop for that cure activity to weaken as you think about it? And like any thoughts on where the default rate could trend here over the next few quarters? Does your activity continue to be stronger than new notices? Or will the uptick in new notices kind of push total defaults maybe a little bit up?

希望從提高治癒率開始。看，在過去的幾個季度裡，它已經相當高了，顯然，在強勁的住房信貸背景下，但我真正好奇並且我試圖理解的是，在這種治療活​​動減弱的背景下，需要改變什麼，因為你想一想嗎？對於未來幾季違約率的趨勢有何想法？您的活動是否繼續比新通知更強？或者新通知的增加是否會推高總違約率？

It's Nathan. I'll start on that at least. I think what we've observed over the last 2 years is I think a return of some level of seasonality. So the first and second quarters are historically seasonally good credit quarters both from a number of new notices, but also cure activity. So what we do expect and we saw this last year, we do expect some softening of that in the second half of the year.

是內森。我至少會從這一點開始。我認為過去兩年我們觀察到的情況是某種程度的季節性回歸。因此，從歷史上看，第一季和第二季度是季節性良好的信貸季度，無論是從許多新通知來看，還是從治癒活動來看。因此，我們確實預期，去年我們看到了這一點，我們確實預計下半年情況會有所放緩。

So while we had declines in the first and second quarter in the delinquency inventory really driven by cures outpacing the notices, we don't expect that to happen in the second half of the year, but kind of in terms of broader trends, things that could drive not and kind of seasonally adjusted, I guess, we'll say, cure activity I think that has to do with the general macroeconomic backdrop that we operate in.

因此，雖然我們第一季和第二季的拖欠庫存下降實際上是由於治癒速度超過了通知的速度，但我們預計這種情況不會在今年下半年發生，但就更廣泛的趨勢而言，我想，我們會說，我認為這與我們所處的整體宏觀經濟背景有關。

So unemployment has remained low, wage growth has been strong, home prices have continued to increase. Those things are all tailwinds to credit performance for us and if one or more of those started to come under pressure, I think that would that could impact not only the level of new notices, but also how quickly they're curing and ultimately, how many cure out and how many results in claims, but the experience that we've had over the last several years has been quite favorable because all of those key factors, whether it's macroeconomics, interest rates or home prices have all been kind of working in a very favorable direction for credit performance.

因此失業率仍然很低，薪資成長強勁，房價持續上漲。這些都是我們信用表現的順風車，如果其中一個或多個開始面臨壓力，我認為這不僅會影響新通知的水平，還會影響它們修復的速度，以及最終如何影響有多少治癒了，有多少結果得到了索賠，但我們過去幾年的經驗非常有利，因為所有這些關鍵因素，無論是宏觀經濟、利率還是房價，都在某種程度上發揮了作用。

Okay. Maybe switching to capital returns. I think you talked about them staying elevated in this operating environment for a little bit. Maybe to put a final point on it, is this 90% payout ratio the right way to think about it that gives you enough the 10% that you saw is enough to fund the growth to the extent you're seeing that?

好的。也許轉向資本回報。我認為您談到了他們在這種操作環境中保持較高的地位。也許最後一點是，90% 的派息率是否是正確的思考方式，讓你看到的 10% 的派息率足以為你所看到的成長提供資金？

I wouldn't target a specific payout ratio in any one quarter. I think like Tim mentioned in the opening comments, for us, it really starts with making sure we have enough capital at the operating company to support the risk that we have on the books and the risk that we want to write and be able to do that in a variety of operating environments. From there, we've been above our target levels at the operating company, which has led us to pay dividends, larger dividends over the last several years up to the holding company that has enabled this capital return that we've seen, but it doesn't start with a target payout ratio for us. It really starts round up from what's the right level of capital for us to have the operating company.

我不會在任何一個季度設定特定的支付率。我認為就像蒂姆在開場白中提到的那樣，對我們來說，首先要確保我們在運營公司有足夠的資本來支持我們賬面上的風險以及我們想要編寫並能夠執行的風險即在各種操作環境下。從那時起，我們一直高於營運公司的目標水平，這導致我們在過去幾年中向控股公司支付股息，更大的股息，這使得我們看到了資本回報，但它我們並沒有設定目標支付率。它實際上是從我們擁有營運公司的適當資本水準開始的。

So there's a lot of ifs here, right? but if the environment remains similar to what we've experienced, which is excellent credit performance and not a lot of growth, I think those are the conditions that lead to the higher payout ratios.

所以這裡有很多如果，對吧？但如果環境仍然與我們所經歷的類似，即良好的信貸表現而不是大幅增長，我認為這些都是導致更高支付率的條件。

Got it. No, that's helpful, and then just my last question. I just wanted to follow-up a little bit on Bose's question about share. Really, my question is just pretty straightforward. Was there anything episodic or unusual about the second quarter that maybe drove the uptick being for you guys being a little bit more than some of the peers who reported so far? Like did you pick up any bulk business, anything specific that you would point to in the second quarter?

知道了。不，這很有幫助，然後就是我的最後一個問題。我只是想稍微跟進一下 Bose 關於共享的問題。真的，我的問題很簡單。第二季度是否有任何偶發或不尋常的事情可能推動了你們的成長，因為你們比迄今為止報告的一些同行要多一點？就像您在第二季是否接手了任何大宗業務一樣，有什麼具體的內容嗎？

No, I appreciate that. No bulk type deals for us. It's all sort of winning the business every day. I think where our share is going to end this quarter is probably more representative where I think we normally would be when you think about sort of our broad customer base. It's not probably even a little bit higher. So it's probably more a reflection of being back in sort of where we closer to where we should be as opposed to maybe in Q1, but no buff deals this quarter or anything like that have been played a bit. It's just it's winning the business every day.

不，我很欣賞這一點。我們沒有批量類型的交易。每天都是在贏得生意。我認為本季我們的份額可能更具代表性，當你考慮我們廣泛的客戶群時，我認為我們通常會這樣做。它可能不會高一點點。因此，這可能更多地反映了我們回到了更接近我們應該達到的位置，而不是在第一季度，但本季度沒有進行任何增益交易或類似的交易。它只是每天都在贏得業務。

Geoffrey Dunn, Dowling.

傑弗裡·鄧恩，道林。

I know it's still early in the seasoning pattern, but you are getting a growing amount of new notices coming from the 2022, 2023 books. Any quality of commentary you can provide with respect to how those notices are performing with the lower HBA relative to the bigger 2021 books?

我知道現在還處於調味模式的早期階段，但您會收到越來越多來自 2022 年、2023 年書籍的新通知。對於這些通知在較低 HBA 相對於較大的 2021 年圖書的表現如何，您可以提供任何高品質的評論嗎？

It's Nathan. I'll take that one. I mean, we do look at vintage level performance and how things are looking both from a transition to notice standpoint, but also curing out and I think the cure activity that we've seen and we kind of look at this on a monthly basis, so one-month cure rates, two months, three months, four months. We're not seeing a lot of changes in the patterns that we've seen.

是內森。我會接受那個。我的意思是，我們確實關注復古水平的表現，以及從過渡到注意的角度來看事情的情況，而且還關注治愈，我認為我們已經看到了治愈活動，我們每月都會關注這一點，所以一個月治癒率、兩個月、三個月、四個月。我們沒有看到我們所看到的模式發生太多變化。

So, it does feel like there should be some differential performance in some of those vintages. I think we do see 2022, which especially the back half of the year, kind of somewhat elevated compared to the 2021 or 2023 vintages, but I mean, this is very, very slight. And in the grand scheme of things, not a big driver we think of ultimate losses because cure activity has been so good and then we try to ground a lot of things and looking back to 2009, which was a vintage that incurred some stress, ultimately fully developed out into a sub 20 loss ratio, and the delinquency patterns that we're seeing relative to 2009 are really favorable for more recent vintages and post delinquency cure activity has been so strong post COVID that actual loss ratios on more recent vintages are running much below that level.

因此，確實感覺到其中一些年份應該有一些不同的表現。我認為我們確實會看到 2022 年，尤其是今年下半年，與 2021 年或 2023 年年份相比，有所上升，但我的意思是，這是非常非常輕微的。從總體上看，我們認為最終損失並不是一個大的驅動因素，因為治療活動非常好，然後我們嘗試讓很多事情落地並回顧 2009 年，這是一個帶來了一些壓力的年份，最終損失率完全發展到低於20，我們所看到的相對於2009 年的拖欠模式確實有利於最近年份的年份，而且在新冠疫情之後，拖欠後補救活動非常強勁，以至於最近年份的實際損失率正在運行遠低於這個水平。

So, yes, I think it's definitely something that we keep an eye on and we'll keep an eye on, but I don't have a lot for you on that specifically right now, just because we're not seeing much differential in terms of post delinquency cure performance when we look at it at a cohort level.

所以，是的，我認為這絕對是我們密切關注的事情，我們會密切關注，但我現在沒有太多具體的信息，只是因為我們沒有看到太多差異當我們在隊列水平上看待犯罪後的治癒表現時。

Okay. As far as embedded equity, I think some companies and maybe MGIC has as well provided kind of the embedded equity on average for the overall portfolio. I think the latest HPM number was over 5%. Is it fair to speculate that there's on average maybe 5%, 6% embedded equity in the 2023 book and more so on the 2022 book or is that too general?

好的。就嵌入股權而言，我認為一些公司（也許還有 MGIC）也為整個投資組合提供了平均的嵌入股權。我認為最新的 HPM 數字超過 5%。推測 2023 年帳簿中平均可能有 5%、6% 的嵌入股權，2022 年帳簿中的嵌入股權較多，這樣推測是否公平，還是這太籠統了？

I think that's a fair way to look at it. Again, one of the reasons that we don't disclose that and also don't do it for delinquent loans is those are averages over large geographic areas and there's certainly homes that experience better than average appreciation, but there's also some that experience lower than average depreciation or even depreciation even if the overall market is up 5% and in our business of ensuring really kind of mortgage credit tail risk, we're most focused on the worst 3% to 5% to 7% of performance, not the average.

我認為這是一種公平的看法。再說一次，我們不披露這一點，也不對拖欠貸款這樣做的原因之一是，這些是大片地理區域的平均水平，當然有些房屋的升值率高於平均水平，但也有一些房屋的升值率低於平均值。

So we see those same numbers when we run that for our book, but I think we're kind of more focused on the full distribution of outcomes, but if you wanted to look at the full 2023 book using either regional or kind of localized home prices or national home price, I think you would see those same -- that kind of same dynamic that you're describing, but I think for us it's more focused on the kind of full distribution and really the worst 10% of the distribution because that's really what we're there to cover not kind of the average loan.

因此，當我們為我們的書運行該數據時，我們會看到相同的數字，但我認為我們更關注結果的完整分佈，但如果您想使用區域或本地化主頁查看 2023 年的完整書價格或全國房價，我想你會看到同樣的——你所描述的那種相同的動態，但我認為對我們來說，它更關注於完全分配的類型，實際上是最差的10% 的分配，因為這確實是我們的目的，而不是一般的貸款。

Thank you. There are no further questions. I will now turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

謝謝。沒有其他問題了。我現在將把電話轉回給管理層以供結束語。

Thank you, Andrew. I want to thank everyone for your interest in MGIC. We will be participating in the Barclays Financial Services Conference and Development and Housing Summit in September. Have a great rest of your week and summer. Thanks, everyone.

謝謝你，安德魯。我要感謝大家對 MGIC 的興趣。我們將參加九月份的巴克萊金融服務會議以及發展和住房高峰會。祝你一週和夏天好好休息。謝謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。