MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the MGIC Investment Corporation's third-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the conference over to Dianna Higgins, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的耐心等待，歡迎參加 MGIC 投資公司 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）現在我將把會議交給投資者關係主管戴安娜·希金斯。請繼續。

Thank you, Josh. Good morning, and welcome, everyone. Thank you for your interest in MGIC. Joining me on the call today to discuss our results for the third quarter are Tim Mattke, Chief Executive Officer; and Nathan Colson, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Risk Officer. Our press release, which contains MGIC's third quarter financial results, was issued yesterday and is available on our website at mtg.mgic.com under Newsroom, includes additional information about our quarterly results that we will refer to during the call today.

謝謝你，喬許。各位早安，歡迎各位。感謝您對MGIC的關注。今天與我一起參加電話會議，討論我們第三季度業績的有首席執行官蒂姆·馬特克，以及首席財務官兼首席風險官內森·科爾森。我們昨天發布的新聞稿包含了MGIC第三季度的財務業績，可以在我們的網站mtg.mgic.com的“新聞中心”專欄中找到，其中包含有關我們季度業績的更多信息，我們將在今天的電話會議上提及這些信息。

It also includes a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to their most comparable GAAP measures. In addition, we posted on our website a quarterly supplement that contains information pertaining to our primary risk in force and other information you may find valuable. As I remember, from time to time, we may post information about our underwriting guidelines and other presentations or corrections to past presentations on our website. Before getting started today, I want to remind everyone that during the course of this call, we may make comments about our expectations of the future. Actual results could differ materially from those contained in these forward-looking statements.

它還包括非GAAP財務指標與其最可比較GAAP指標的調節表。此外，我們在網站上發布了季度增刊，其中包含有關我們主要風險的有效資訊以及您可能會覺得有價值的其他資訊。我記得，我們​​有時會在網站上發布有關承保準則和其他簡報或對過去簡報的更正的資訊。在今天的會議開始之前，我想提醒大家，在本次通話過程中，我們可能會對未來的期望發表一些評論。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中所包含的結果有重大差異。

Additional information about the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed on the call today are contained in our Form 8-K and 10-Q filed yesterday also. If we make any forward-looking statements, we are not undertaking an obligation to update those statements in the future in light of subsequent events. No one should rely on the fact that such guidance or forward-looking statements are current at any other time than the time of this call or the issuance of our 8-K or 10-Q.

有關可能導致實際結果與今天電話會議中討論的結果存在重大差異的因素的更多信息，也包含在我們昨天提交的 8-K 表格和 10-Q 表格中。如果我們做出任何前瞻性陳述，我們並不承擔在未來因後續事件而更新這些陳述的義務。任何人都不應依賴此類指導或前瞻性聲明在本次電話會議或我們發布 8-K 或 10-Q 表格時以外的任何其他時間仍然有效這一事實。

Now with that, I now have the pleasure to turn the call over to Tim.

現在，我很高興將電話交給提姆。

Thanks, Dianna, and good morning, everyone. We maintain our strong momentum in the third quarter, delivering solid financial results and meaningful capital returns to our shareholders. For the quarter, we recorded net income of $191 million, an annualized return on equity of 14.8%, once again demonstrating the durability of our business model and the rigor around our risk management and capital strategies. Our consistent performance reflects our leadership in the market and the ongoing support and confidence our stakeholders place in us. We remain focused on operational excellence, disciplined execution, and sustainable long-term value for our stakeholders.

謝謝黛安娜，大家早安。我們在第三季保持了強勁的發展勢頭，為股東帶來了穩健的財務表現和可觀的資本回報。本季度，我們錄得淨收入 1.91 億美元，年化股本回報率為 14.8%，再次證明了我們商業模式的持久性以及我們在風險管理和資本策略方面的嚴謹性。我們持續穩定的績效反映了我們在市場上的領先地位，以及利害關係人對我們的一致支持和信任。我們將繼續專注於卓越營運、嚴謹執行，並為我們的利害關係人創造可持續的長期價值。

Our solid operating results, together with our robust balance sheet, enabled us to grow book value per share to $22.87, up 11% compared to a year ago. During that same period, we returned [$980 million] of capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and reduced outstanding shares by 12%.

我們穩健的經營業績，加上我們強勁的資產負債表，使我們每股帳面價值成長至 22.87 美元，比一年前成長了 11%。同期，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了 9.8 億美元的資本，並將流通股減少了 12%。

In the third quarter, we achieved another significant milestone in our company's history and an industry first, ending the quarter with more than $300 billion of insurance in force. This milestone reflects our historical and ongoing leadership in the market. This achievement also reflects the dedication and excellence of our talented team, their integrity, adaptability, and focus sets us apart from others and propels our success.

第三季度，我們實現了公司歷史上的另一個重要里程碑，也是業界第一，季末有效保險額超過 3,000 億美元。這一里程碑體現了我們過去和現在在市場上的持續領先地位。這項成就也體現了我們才華橫溢的團隊的奉獻精神和卓越表現，他們的正直、適應能力和專注精神使我們脫穎而出，並推動我們走向成功。

We continue to be pleased with the credit quality and strong performance of our insurance portfolio. Our prudent risk management and underwriting standards remain key drivers in the quality of our portfolio. During the quarter, our NIW was $16.5 billion of high-quality business with strong credit characteristics. Shifting to capital management. Our strategy remains consistent and grounded on maintaining financial strength and flexibility to support our long-term success across economic cycles.

我們對保險業務組合的信貸品質和強勁表現依然感到滿意。我們審慎的風險管理和承保標準仍然是我們投資組合品質的關鍵驅動因素。本季度，我們的淨資產為 165 億美元，均為具有良好信用特徵的高品質業務。轉向資本管理。我們的策略始終如一，以保持財務實力和靈活性為基礎，以支持我們在各個經濟週期中取得長期成功。

Key objectives included supporting prudent growth through strong capital levels at both the operating and holding company, maintaining a low to mid-teens debt-to-capital rati,o and maintaining a healthy liquidity buffer. Our adherence to these strategies has put us in a position to return excess capital to shareholders through share repurchases and common stock dividends. In the quarter, share repurchases totaled 7 million shares for $188 million. We also paid a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.15 per share, totaling $34 million. Taking a longer view, over the prior four quarters, share repurchases totaled $786 million and shareholder dividends totaled $132 million.

主要目標包括透過維持營運公司和控股公司強勁的資本水準來支持穩健成長，維持十幾到十幾的債務資本比率，並保持健康的流動性緩衝。我們堅持這些策略，使我們能夠透過股票回購和普通股股利將多餘的資本返還給股東。本季度，股票回購總額為 700 萬股，金額達 1.88 億美元。我們還支付了每股 0.15 美元的季度普通股股息，總計 3,400 萬美元。從更長遠的角度來看，在前四個季度，股票回購總額為 7.86 億美元，股東分紅總額為 1.32 億美元。

Combined, this represents a 122% payout of the net income we earned in that period. This share repurchase activity reflects both our capital strength and excellent financial results. We continue to expect share repurchases will remain our primary method of returning capital to shareholders, while at the same time continuing to pay a quarterly common stock dividend. As announced on October 23, the Board approved a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.15 per share payable on November 20. Additionally, earlier this week, MGIC paid a $400 million dividend to the holding company, reflecting capital levels at MGIC that are above our target.

合計，這相當於我們在此期間所獲淨收入的 122% 用於支付。這次股票回購活動既反映了我們雄厚的資本實力，也反映了我們優異的財務表現。我們預期股票回購仍將是我們向股東返還資本的主要方式，同時我們將繼續按季度支付普通股股利。正如 10 月 23 日宣布的那樣，董事會批准了每股 0.15 美元的季度普通股股息，將於 11 月 20 日支付。此外，本週早些時候，MGIC 向控股公司支付了 4 億美元的股息，這反映出 MGIC 的資本水準高於我們的目標。

This dividend further enhances our liquidity position and financial flexibility of the holding company. Our capital structure remains robust, with $6 billion in balance sheet capital, along with our well-established reinsurance program, which remains a core element of our risk and capital management approach. Our reinsurance program reduces loss volatility in stress scenarios while also providing capital diversification and flexibility at attractive costs. We were active in the reinsurance market in the third quarter, and Nathan will provide more detail on that shortly. At the end of the third quarter, our reinsurance program reduced our PMIERs required assets by $2.5 billion or approximately 43%.

此次分紅將進一步增強控股公司的流動性和財務靈活性。我們的資本結構仍然穩健，資產負債表資本達 60 億美元，加上我們完善的再保險計劃，這仍然是我們風險和資本管理方法的核心要素。我們的再保險計劃在壓力情境下降低損失波動，同時以優惠的成本提供資本多元化和靈活性。第三季我們積極參與了再保險市場，Nathan稍後將提供更多細節。第三季末，我們的再保險計劃使我們的 PMIER 所需資產減少了 25 億美元，約佔 43%。

Now let me turn it over to Nathan to provide more details on our financial results for the quarter.

現在，我把麥克風交給內森，讓他詳細介紹我們本季的財務表現。

Thanks, Tim, and good morning. As Tim discussed, we had excellent financial results for the third quarter. We earned net income and adjusted net operating income of $0.83 per diluted share compared to $0.77 per diluted share during the same period last year. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP net income to adjusted net operating income can be found in our earnings release.

謝謝你，提姆，早安。正如提姆所說，我們第三季的財務表現非常出色。我們實現淨利和調整後淨營業利潤為每股攤薄收益 0.83 美元，去年同期為每股攤薄收益 0.77 美元。有關 GAAP 淨利潤與調整後淨營業利潤的詳細調整表，請參閱我們的獲利報告。

In the quarter, our reestimation of ultimate losses on prior delinquencies resulted in $47 million of favorable loss reserve development. The favorable development this quarter primarily came from delinquency notices we received in 2024 and early 2025 as curates on recent new notices continue to exceed our expectations. For new delinquency notices received in the quarter, we continued to use the initial claim rate assumption of 7.5%, which is consistent with recent periods.

本季度，我們對先前違約的最終損失進行了重新評估，從而產生了 4700 萬美元的有利損失準備金。本季有利的發展主要來自我們收到的 2024 年和 2025 年初的違約通知，因為最近新通知的執行情況繼續超出我們的預期。對於本季收到的新逾期通知，我們繼續採用 7.5% 的初始索賠率假設，這與最近幾個時期的情況一致。

Looking at delinquency trends, our account-based delinquency rate increased 11 basis points in the quarter to 2.32%, in line with what we expected and consistent with the seasonal trends we have discussed on past calls. We received 13,600 new delinquency notices in the third quarter, slightly less than the third quarter last year and 3% less than the third quarter of 2019, just prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The delinquency rate at the end of the third quarter was 8 basis points higher than a year ago, and the number of new notices and delinquency rates continue to remain low by historical standards. As we look ahead, we continue to expect that the combination of seasonality and the aging of our large 2021 and 2022 book years will result in an increase in new delinquency notices received and the delinquency rate.

從逾期趨勢來看，本季我們的帳戶逾期率上升了 11 個基點，達到 2.32%，這與我們的預期相符，也與我們在過去電話會議中討論過的季節性趨勢一致。第三季我們收到了 13,600 份新的欠款通知，略低於去年第三季度，比 2019 年第三季度（即 COVID-19 疫情爆發前）減少了 3%。第三季末的違約率比去年同期高出 8 個基點，但新通知的數量和違約率以歷史標準來看仍然很低。展望未來，我們仍然預計，季節性因素以及 2021 年和 2022 年大帳年帳齡的增長將導致收到的新逾期通知數量和逾期率上升。

Turning to our revenue. The in-force premium yield was 38.3 basis points in the quarter, remaining relatively flat during the year, consistent with what we expected at the beginning of the year. Investment income was $62 million in the third quarter, contributing meaningfully to our revenue again. The book yield on our investment portfolio was 4% at the end of the quarter.

接下來談談我們的收入。本季有效保費收益率為 38.3 個基點，與年初的預期基本持平。第三季投資收益為 6,200 萬美元，再次為我們的收入做出了重要貢獻。本季末，我們投資組合的帳面收益率為 4%。

Investment income remained relatively flat sequentially and year over year as both the book yield and the size of the investment portfolio have also remained relatively flat. During the quarter, reinvestment rates on our fixed income portfolio continued to exceed our book yield. However, we anticipate the overall book yield will remain relatively flat for the remainder of the year. The unrealized loss position on our portfolio narrowed by $57 million in the quarter, primarily driven by a decrease in interest rates. Operating expenses were $50 million this quarter, down from $53 million in the third quarter last year.

由於帳面收益率和投資組合規模也保持相對平穩，投資收益環比和同比均保持相對穩定。本季，我們固定收益投資組合的再投資收益率持續高於帳面收益率。然而，我們預計今年剩餘時間內整體圖書收益率將保持相對穩定。本季度，由於利率下降，我們投資組合的未實現虧損減少了 5,700 萬美元。本季營運支出為 5,000 萬美元，低於去年第三季的 5,300 萬美元。

Through the first three quarters of 2025, operating expenses decreased 8.5% compared to the same period last year. We continue to expect the full year operating expenses to fall within our previously communicated range of $195 million to $205 million but now expect it will be toward the higher end of that range due primarily to the pension settlement charges we discussed last quarter.

2025 年前三個季度，營運費用比去年同期下降了 8.5%。我們仍然預計全年營運支出將落在先前公佈的 1.95 億美元至 2.05 億美元範圍內，但現在預計會更接近該範圍的上限，這主要是由於我們上個季度討論過的退休金結算費用。

As Tim mentioned, we have been very busy in the reinsurance market. We further bolstered our reinsurance program with a $250 million seasoned excess of loss transaction covering our 2021 NIW and a 40% quota share transaction that will cover most of our 2027 NIW. In addition, we amended the terms on our quota share treaties covering our 2022 NIW with most participants from the existing reinsurance panel. The amended terms will reduce the ongoing costs by approximately 40% starting in 2026.

正如提姆所提到的，我們在再保險市場一直非常忙碌。我們進一步加強了再保險計劃，透過一項 2.5 億美元的成熟超額損失交易，涵蓋了我們 2021 年的淨不盈利損失 (NIW)；並通過一項 40% 的份額再保險交易，涵蓋了我們 2027 年的大部分淨不盈利損失 (NIW)。此外，我們修改了涵蓋我們 2022 年 NIW 的配額份額條約條款，並與現有再保險小組的大多數參與者進行了協商。修訂後的條款將從 2026 年開始減少約 40% 的持續成本。

Because they are all effective in the future, none of these reinsurance transactions impact our reinsurance program at the end of the third quarter, but all set us up for continued success and are all consistent with our long-term reinsurance strategy and follow the same approach we have taken in recent years to managing our overall risk and capital positions.

由於這些再保險交易都將在未來生效，因此在第三季末，這些再保險交易都不會影響我們的再保險計劃，但它們都為我們持續取得成功奠定了基礎，並且都符合我們的長期再保險戰略，遵循我們近年來管理整體風險和資本狀況的相同方法。

With that, let me turn it back over to Tim.

那麼，現在讓我把麥克風交還給提姆。

Thanks, Nathan. We are beginning to see some modest improvements in home affordability driven by easing mortgage rates and slower national home price appreciation. Housing inventory remains tight, but like affordability, it has improved since last year, and there's been a slow but steady increase in purchase applications. With that said, affordability challenges do remain, but private mortgage insurance continues to play a critical role in helping low down payment borrowers access the American dream of home ownership sooner.

謝謝你，內森。隨著抵押貸款利率下降和全國房價上漲速度放緩，我們開始看到房屋負擔能力出現一些小幅改善。房屋庫存仍然緊張，但與住房負擔能力一樣，情況比去年有所改善，購房申請數量也緩慢但穩定地增加。儘管如此，購屋能力方面的挑戰依然存在，但私人抵押貸款保險在幫助低首付借款人更快實現擁有住房的美國夢方面繼續發揮著至關重要的作用。

Last year, private MI helped more than 800,000 borrowers achieve their dream of home ownership. We are proud of the vital role private mortgage insurance plays in the housing finance system. We remain committed to working with FHFA, the GSEs and other industry stakeholders to responsibly serve low down payment borrowers and make homeownership more accessible for Americans, while also protecting taxpayers for mortgage credit risk.

去年，私人抵押貸款機構幫助超過 80 萬借款人實現了擁有住房的夢想。我們為私人抵押貸款保險在住房金融體系中發揮的重要作用感到自豪。我們將繼續致力於與聯邦住房金融局 (FHFA)、政府支持企業 (GSE) 和其他行業利益相關者合作，以負責任的方式為低首付借款人提供服務，讓美國人更容易擁有住房，同時保護納稅人免受抵押貸款信用風險的影響。

In closing, we delivered a strong quarter and continued to build on the momentum we have established over the past few years. We are committed to delivering high-quality offerings and solutions and best-in-class service to our customers. I remain confident in our talented team, leadership, and position in the market and the ability to execute and deliver on our business strategies.

綜上所述，我們本季業績表現強勁，並持續保持過去幾年建立的發展動能。我們致力於為客戶提供高品質的產品和解決方案以及一流的服務。我對我們才華橫溢的團隊、領導層、市場地位以及執行和實現業務策略的能力仍然充滿信心。

With that, Josh, let's take questions.

那麼，喬希，接下來我們來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Graham Bundy, KBW.

（操作說明）Graham Bundy，KBW。

This is Bose. This is -- in terms of your provision, what was your provision per loan on the new notices? And just from an accounting standpoint, does your provision for new notices for the quarter just net out the new notices that were -- from the year that were also cured during the year?

這是 Bose。也就是說——就您的準備金而言，您在新通知中每筆貸款的準備金是多少？從會計角度來看，您本季對新通知的準備金是否只是抵銷了本年度新通知中那些在本年度得到糾正的通知？

Yes. This is Nathan. From a new notice perspective, we had very similar assumptions for the provision this quarter. I mentioned in the prepared remarks, the new notice claim rate was 7.5%, and we followed a similar methodology for the severity on new notices, really tracking to the exposure. The total provision is inclusive of the favorable reserve development that we had, which was $47 million in the quarter.

是的。這是內森。從新的通知角度來看，我們對本季的撥備做出了非常相似的假設。我在準備好的發言稿中提到，新通知索賠率為 7.5%，我們對新通知的嚴重程度採用了類似的方法，確實與風險敞口相符。總撥備包括我們本季獲得的有利儲備發展，即 4,700 萬美元。

And we've got some details of that in our portfolio supplement that's on the website as well in terms of the kind of new notice reserving assumptions and the full notice inventory.

我們在網站上的投資組合補充文件中也提供了一些詳細信息，包括新的通知準備金假設和完整的通知清單。

Okay. Great. And then actually, I wanted to just ask about the debate on the credit scores that's going on. Can you just talk about how you're looking at it? And just -- in terms of PMIERs, does PMIERs just use FICO and what happens if Vantage score becomes part of what lenders are starting to use at some point?

好的。偉大的。其實，我還想問關於信用評分的爭論。可以談談你的看法嗎？還有一點——就 PMIER 而言，PMIER 是否只使用 FICO 評分？如果 Vantage 評分在某個時候成為貸款機構開始使用的一部分，會發生什麼情況？

Yes. Bose, it's Tim. Obviously, we're paying close attention. I think it's safe to say that we try to be active in the conversations, but we know that we're just one part of the ecosystem. And so for us, it's really important to understand as an example how the GSEs are going to utilize it, what they're going to do?

是的。Bose，我是Tim。顯然，我們正在密切關注。我覺得可以肯定地說，我們努力積極參與對話，但我們也知道我們只是生態系統的一部分。因此，對我們來說，了解政府支持企業將如何利用它、他們將做什麼，就顯得非常重要。

You referenced PMIERs right, while they make any changes with regards to that. We haven't heard anything definitive in that regard, but we stand sort of ready to incorporate whatever the industry sort of moves to and are very supportive of what makes the industry stronger. So again, I don't think we have a lot of exact answers at this point. We've had a lot of good dialogue, and I think we're ready to sort of move as the rest of the industry moves.

你提到的 PMIER 沒錯，儘管他們沒有就此做出任何改變。在這方面我們還沒有聽到任何確切的消息，但我們隨時準備好接受行業的任何發展趨勢，並且非常支持任何能夠增強行業實力的舉措。所以，我覺得目前我們還沒有很多確切的答案。我們已經進行了很多有益的對話，我認為我們已經準備好隨著行業其他部門的步伐前進。

Doug Harter, UBS.

道格·哈特，瑞銀集團。

This is actually Will Nasta on for Doug today. And I guess just given some recent industry news about potential new entrants into the MI space. I was curious your thoughts on how you guys are thinking about potential increased competition in this space and any real impact this could have on MGIC.

今天代替道格的是威爾·納斯塔。我想，這或許也與最近一些關於MI領域潛在新進者的產業新聞有關。我很好奇你們如何看待這個領域潛在的競爭加劇，以及這可能會對 MGIC 產生哪些實際影響。

Yes. We're aware that someone is looking at potentially into the market. We've seen that in the past to varying degrees. The question I most often get asked is six too many. So whether another ultimately joins, they have all the PMI requirements, things like that and having to raise the capital and have all the operational requirements that we have.

是的。我們了解到有人可能正在考察這個市場。我們過去也曾不同程度地看到過這種情況。我最常被問到的問題是：六個是不是太多了？所以，無論最終是否有其他公司加入，他們都必須滿足 PMI 的所有要求，以及籌集資金並滿足我們所有的營運要求。

So again, I -- it's tough to say. I think at this point, speculation, but we're definitely aware of it. But I assume they'd be on the same playing field, et cetera. But again, I more often get asked, should there be fewer than should there be more. So I think that's something that might have to ultimately overcome on top of sort of GSE approval for PMIERs.

所以，我——很難說。我認為目前這只是猜測，但我們肯定已經意識到了這一點。但我認為他們會處於同一競爭環境中，等等。但是，我經常被問到的是，數量應該減少還是應該增加。所以我認為，除了獲得 GSE 對 PMIER 的批准之外，這最終可能還需要克服一些問題。

Got it. And then I guess just moving to capital return. I know you guys mentioned 122% payout recently. I'm just curious about how you guys are thinking about that going forward? Then obviously the balance between repurchases and dividends within that payout?

知道了。然後我想，接下來就只能轉向資本回報了。我知道你們最近提到122%的回報率。我只是好奇你們接下來是怎麼考慮這件事的？那麼，在派息方案中，股票回購和股利之間的平衡顯然是什麼呢？

Yes. Will, it's Nathan. Thanks for the question. I think our approach has been pretty consistent over time, which is really around maintaining the right financial strength at the operating company. Once we've achieved that and have capital levels above our targets, using that to pay dividends to the holding company.

是的。威爾，我是內森。謝謝你的提問。我認為我們的方法一直以來都相當一致，那就是維持營運公司適當的財務實力。一旦我們實現了目標，資本水平超過了我們的目標，我們將利用這些資金向控股公司支付股息。

And we did that again recently with another $400 million dividend. At the holding company level, we've been targeting payout ratios given the valuation of the stock, which we found to be attractive in recent periods and the strength of the financial results. The payout ratio has been a little bit elevated where the share repurchase level has approximated our net income over the last four quarters, and then the dividend is a little bit above that.

最近我們又派發了 4 億美元的股息。在控股公司層面，鑑於股票的估值（我們認為股票估值在最近一段時間內具有吸引力）和強勁的財務業績，我們一直以派息率為目標。過去四個季度，股票回購水準與淨收入大致相當，而股利又略高於淨收入，因此派息率略高。

So I think that's -- given these market conditions right now with very good credit performance, not a lot of growth in the in-force book, really strong capital levels at MGIC. This feels like a comfortable payout ratio given those conditions. But obviously, if those conditions change, we've maintained the flexibility to react to that as well.

所以我認為——鑑於目前的市場狀況，信貸表現非常好，有效保單數量增長不多，MGIC 的資本水平非常強勁。考慮到這些條件，這感覺是一個比較合理的賠付率。但很顯然，如果這些情況發生變化，我們也保持了應對的彈性。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

This is Caroline on for Mihir here. So it looks like persistency was actually modestly up quarter over quarter despite the rate cut. Is there anything to call out there? And then also with rates coming down prospectively, how can we think about persistency moving forward? Like how fast and how much can it come down?

這裡是卡羅琳，替米希爾為您報道。因此，儘管降息，但貸款持續率似乎實際上比去年同期略有上升。那邊有什麼需要呼籲的嗎？此外，隨著利率的預期下降，我們該如何看待未來的貸款持續性？它能以多快的速度下降，下降幅度有多大？

Caroline, it's Nathan. In the quarter, I would view it more as flat than up. I mean I think it was up maybe a couple of tenths of a percentage point, but I think that's -- we would view it as pretty flat over the year. And really, the impact of rates coming down, if you think about our NIW for the third quarter and then cancellation activity for the third quarter, that really would reflect the rate environment, say, in June and July, more than the rate environment in September and October. So we have seen a recent uptick in recent weeks and the number of refinance transactions that are coming through from a quote and application standpoint for us.

卡洛琳，我是內森。就本季而言，我認為它更傾向於平穩而不是上漲。我的意思是，我認為它可能上升了零點幾個百分點，但我認為這——我們認為它全年基本上持平。事實上，利率下降的影響，如果你考慮我們第三季的淨營業收入和第三季的取消活動，你會發現這實際上更反映了六月和七月的利率環境，而不是九月和十月的利率環境。因此，近幾週來，我們看到再融資交易的數量上升，從報價和申請的角度來看，交易量也有所增加。

So if there is some headwinds or persistency, it's likely to be at least somewhat offset by increased NIW or at least increased refinance volume in the third quarter and beyond. But in terms of the magnitude of the persistency change, I do think it's obviously very rate dependent, and we've had periods where persistency was much lower. We've been in a stable range for now. But I think our history shows that in the periods where persistency trends lower, they tend to be also the periods where NIW trends higher.

因此，如果出現一些不利因素或持續性問題，那麼第三季及以後，NIW（淨收入）的增加或至少再融資量的增加，可能會在一定程度上抵消這些問題。但就持續性變化的幅度而言，我認為這顯然與利率密切相關，而且我們也曾經經歷過持續性較低的時期。目前為止，我們的價格一直處於穩定區間。但我認為，歷史表明，在持續性趨勢下降的時期，往往也是NIW趨勢上升的時期。

Okay. Awesome. That's really helpful. And then just are there any markets you're seeing good opportunity in and you're leaning in on? Or similarly, are there any markets that you're more cautious on and pulling back on?

好的。驚人的。這真的很有幫助。那麼，你有沒有看到哪些市場有很好的機會，並且正在專注於這些市場？或者類似地，對於某些市場，您是否比較謹慎，並且正在減少投資？

It's Nathan again. I think this is something that we're doing on a continuous basis. So the approach that we have, given the strong capital levels is really to try to find the places where we think there's the most economic value. And that's a combination of risk factors and kind of the market rate for risk for that opportunity. So we don't really have strategy to lean in or out of any one thing.

又是內森。我認為這是我們一直在持續做的事情。鑑於目前的強勁資本水平，我們採取的策略是努力尋找我們認為最具經濟價值的地方。這是風險因素的綜合體現，也是該機會的市場風險水準。所以我們並沒有真正意義上的策略去專注或迴避任何一方面。

It's more like kind of our models that our views of economic value dictate where we want to go without a lot of say, capital overlays on that just given the robust capital position that we've developed over the last few years.

更像是我們的模型，我們對經濟價值的看法決定了我們想要去向何方，而無需過多幹預，也無需資本疊加，這都得益於我們在過去幾年中建立的穩健資本地位。

There are no further questions. I will now turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.

沒有其他問題了。現在我將把電話轉回給管理階層，請他們作總結發言。

Thanks, Josh. I want to thank everyone for your participation in today's call and interest in MGIC. Have a great rest of your week.

謝謝你，喬希。我要感謝大家參與今天的電話會議，並感謝大家對MGIC的關注。祝您本週餘下時間愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。