M&T Bank Corp (MTB) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the M&T Bank Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Brian Klock, Head of Market and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

歡迎參加 M&T 銀行 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議交給市場和投資者關係主管 Brian Klock。請繼續。

Thank you, Angela, and good morning. I'd like to thank everyone for participating in M&T's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call, both by telephone and through the webcast. If you have not read the earnings release, we issued this morning, you may access it, along with the financial tables and schedules by going to our website, www.mtb.com.

謝謝你，安琪拉，早安。我要感謝大家透過電話和網路廣播參加 M&T 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。如果您還沒有閱讀我們今天早上發布的收益報告，您可以訪問我們的網站 www.mtb.com 來訪問它以及財務表格和時間表。

Once there, you can click on the Investor Relations link and then on the Events and Presentations link. Also, before we start, I'd like to mention that today's presentation may contain forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information are included in today's earnings release materials and in the investor presentation as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials.

到達那裡後，您可以單擊投資者關係鏈接，然後單擊活動和演示鏈接。另外，在我們開始之前，我想提一下，今天的演示可能包含前瞻性資訊。有關此資訊的警示性聲明包含在今天的收益發布資料、投資者簡報以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件和其他投資者資料中。

Presentation also includes non-GAAP financial measures as identified in the earnings release and in the investor presentation. The appropriate reconciliations to GAAP are included in the appendix.

簡報還包括收益發布和投資者簡報中確定的非公認會計準則財務指標。附錄中包含了與 GAAP 的適當調整。

Joining me on the call this morning is M&T's Senior Executive Vice President and CFO, Daryl Bible. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Daryl.

今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的是 M&T 的高級執行副總裁兼財務長 Daryl Bible。現在我想把電話轉給達裡爾。

Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Let's start with our purpose, mission and operating principles on Slide 3. I would like to thank our more than 22,000 M&T colleagues for all their hard work, whether serving our customers or our communities, our employees continue to deliver on our purpose, making a difference in people's lives.

謝謝你，布萊恩，大家早安。讓我們從幻燈片 3 上的宗旨、使命和營運原則開始。我要感謝我們 22,000 多名 M&T 同事的辛勤工作，無論是服務我們的客戶還是我們的社區，我們的員工不斷實現我們的宗旨，使人們生活的差異。

This purpose drives our operating principles. We believe in local scale, that is combining local knowledge and hands-on customer service of Community Bank with the resources of a large financial institution. Our 28 communities are led by on-the-ground regional presidents. Their knowledge allows us to better understand and meet the needs of our customers and communities. And importantly, this approach continues to produce strong results for our shareholders. Our local scale has led to superior credit performance, top deposit share and high operating and capital efficiency over the long term.

這一目標推動了我們的營運原則。我們相信本地規模，將社區銀行的本地知識和實際客戶服務與大型金融機構的資源結合。我們的 28 個社區由當地區域主席領導。他們的知識使我們能夠更好地理解和滿足客戶和社區的需求。重要的是，這種方法繼續為我們的股東帶來強勁的業績。我們的本地規模帶來了卓越的信用表現、最高的存款份額以及長期的高營運和資本效率。

Moving to Slide 4. Our seasoned talent and diverse board are keys to gaining in-depth understanding of our customers' needs and expectations. We have sound technology solutions, coupled with caring employees, which provide a differentiated client experience.

轉向投影片 4。我們經驗豐富的人才和多元化的董事會是深入了解客戶需求和期望的關鍵。我們擁有完善的技術解決方案，加上充滿愛心的員工，可以提供差異化的客戶體驗。

Please turn to Slide 5. This slide showcases how we activate our purpose through our operating principles. When our customers and communities succeed, we all succeed. Our investment in enhancing the customer experience and delivering impactful products have fueled organic growth. We also believe in supporting small business owners who play a vital role in our communities. Despite operating in only 12 states, we are ranked as #6 SBA Lender in the country, the 15th consecutive year M&T is ranked in the nation's top 10 SBA Lenders. And for the first time, we have finished as the top SBA Lender in Connecticut, an important milestone following our acquisitions of People's United.

請參閱投影片 5。這張投影片展示了我們如何透過我們的營運原則來實現我們的目標。當我們的客戶和社區成功時，我們都成功了。我們在增強客戶體驗和提供有影響力的產品方面的投資推動了有機成長。我們也相信支持在我們社區中發揮重要作用的小企業主。儘管僅在 12 個州開展業務，但我們在全國排名第六的 SBA 貸款機構，M&T 連續 15 年躋身全國前 10 名 SBA 貸款機構。我們首次成為康乃狄克州頂級 SBA 貸款人，這是我們收購 People's United 後的一個重要里程碑。

Our commitment to supporting the communities we serve extends to affordable housing projects with almost $2.3 billion in financing and over 2,600 home loans for low- and moderate-income residence. Additionally, M&T Bank and our Charitable Foundation granted over $47 million in support of our communities in 2022 and approximately $30 million so far in 2023.

我們對支持我們服務的社區的承諾延伸到經濟適用房項目，融資近 23 億美元，並為低收入和中等收入住宅提供 2,600 多筆住房貸款。此外，M&T 銀行和我們的慈善基金會在 2022 年撥款超過 4,700 萬美元來支持我們的社區，到 2023 年迄今已撥款約 3,000 萬美元。

Please turn to Slide 6. Here, we highlight our ongoing commitment to the environment. Last year, we invested over $230 million in renewable energy sector, and have significantly reduced our Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions since 2019. Our ESG report was published in July, but I encourage you to review this slide for some of the highlights. M&T's ESG ratings have improved at Moody's, MSCI and Sustainalytics.

請參閱投影片 6。在這裡，我們強調我們對環境的持續承諾。去年，我們在再生能源領域投資了超過2.3 億美元，自2019 年以來大幅減少了範圍1 和範圍2 的排放。我們的ESG 報告於7 月發布，但我鼓勵您查看這張投影片以了解一些亮點。穆迪、MSCI 和 Sustainalytics 的 M&T 的 ESG 評級有所提高。

Turning to Slide 8. There are several successes to highlight this quarter. We continue to see growth in auto dealerships as well as specialty businesses. We continue to grow customer deposits despite increasing competition and building on the strong liquidity position and comparative strength of our financial position in the industry allows us to continue lending in support of communities and local businesses. We remain focused on diligently managing expenses. Our third quarter results continue to reflect the strength of our core earnings power.

轉向幻燈片 8。本季有幾項成功值得強調。我們繼續看到汽車經銷商和專業業務的成長。儘管競爭日益激烈，我們仍繼續增加客戶存款，並憑藉強大的流動性狀況和我們在行業中的財務狀況的相對實力，使我們能夠繼續放貸以支持社區和當地企業。我們仍然專注於努力管理費用。我們第三季的業績繼續反映了我們核心獲利能力的實力。

Third quarter revenues have grown 4% compared to last year's third quarter. Pre-provision net revenues have increased 4% to $1.1 billion. Credit remained stable. Net charge-offs decreased in the third quarter and year-to-date, we still remain below the historical long-term average. GAAP net income for the quarter was $690 million, up 7% versus like quarter in 2022. Diluted GAAP earnings per share was $3.98 for the third quarter, up 13% from last year's similar quarter.

與去年第三季相比，第三季營收成長了4%。撥備前淨收入成長 4%，達到 11 億美元。信貸保持穩定。第三季和年初至今的淨沖銷有所下降，但仍低於歷史長期平均水準。該季度 GAAP 淨利潤為 6.9 億美元，比 2022 年同期成長 7%。第三季稀釋後 GAAP 每股收益為 3.98 美元，比去年同期成長 13%。

Now let's review our net operating results for the quarter on Slide 9. M&T's net operating income for the third quarter, which excludes intangible amortization, was $702 million and diluted net operating earnings per share was $4.05. Net operating return on tangible common equity was 17.41% and tangible book value per share increased 3% compared to the end of June.

現在讓我們回顧一下幻燈片 9 中本季的淨營運業績。M&T 第三季的淨營運收入（不含無形攤銷）為 7.02 億美元，攤薄後每股淨營運收益為 4.05 美元。有形普通股淨營業報酬率為17.41%，每股有形帳面價值較6月底成長3%。

On Slide 10, you will see that diluted GAAP earnings per share was down 21% from linked quarter. Recall the results from the second quarter of last year indicated an after-tax -- [$157] gain from the sale of the CIT business in April. Excluding this gain, GAAP net income and diluted earnings per share were down 3% compared to the linked quarter. On a GAAP basis, M&T's third quarter results produced an ROA and ROE of 1.33% and 10.99%, respectively.

在投影片 10 上，您將看到攤薄後的 GAAP 每股收益比關聯季度下降了 21%。回想去年第二季的結果表明，4 月出售 CIT 業務帶來了稅後收益 [157 美元]。排除此收益，公認會計準則淨利潤和稀釋每股收益較上一季下降 3%。以公認會計準則計算，M&T 第三季業績的 ROA 和 ROE 分別為 1.33% 和 10.99%。

Next, we will look a little deeper into the underlying trends that generated the third quarter results. Please turn to Slide 11. Taxable equivalent net interest income was $1.79 billion in the third quarter, down $23 million from the linked quarter. This decline was driven largely by higher interest rates on consumer deposit funding. An unfavorable funding mix change, partially offset by higher interest rates on earning assets and one additional day. The net interest margin for the past quarter was 7 -- 3.79%, down 12 basis points from linked quarter. The primary drivers of the decrease to the margin were an unfavorable deposit mix shift, which reduced margin by 7 basis points.

接下來，我們將更深入研究產生第三季業績的基本趨勢。請參閱投影片 11。第三季應稅等值淨利息收入為 17.9 億美元，比上一季減少 2,300 萬美元。這一下降主要是由於消費者存款利率上升所致。不利的資金組合變化，部分被生息資產利率上升和額外一天所抵消。上一季淨利差為7%至3.79%，較上一季下降12個基點。利潤率下降的主要驅動因素是不利的存款結構變化，導致利潤率下降了 7 個基點。

The net impact from higher interest rates on customer deposits, net benefit from higher rates on earning assets which we estimate reduced the margin by 6 basis points. The remaining 1 basis point was due to higher nonaccrual interest, net of the impact of 1 additional day. Turning to Slide 12. We -- Average earning assets increased $1.5 billion from the linked quarter, due largely to the strong deposit growth that drove the $3 billion growth at the Fed. Average loans declined $928 million and average investment securities declined $630 million.

客戶存款利率上升的淨影響以及生息資產利率上升的淨收益，我們估計使利潤率降低了 6 個基點。剩餘 1 個基點是由於非應計利息增加（扣除額外 1 天的影響）所致。轉向幻燈片 12。我們—平均收益資產較上一季增加 15 億美元，這主要是由於強勁的存款成長推動了聯準會 30 億美元的成長。平均貸款減少 9.28 億美元，平均投資證券減少 6.3 億美元。

Turning to Slide 13 to talk about average loans. Total loans and leases averaged $132.6 million for the third quarter of 2023, down 1% compared to the linked quarter. Looking at loans by category, on average basis compared to the second quarter, C&I loans increased slightly to $44.6 billion. We continue to see growth in dealer and specialty businesses. During the third quarter, average CRE loans decreased by 2% to $44.2 billion. This decline was driven largely by our continued strategy to reduce on-balance sheet exposure to this asset class.

轉向幻燈片 13 來討論平均貸款。 2023 年第三季的貸款和租賃總額平均為 1.326 億美元，比上一季下降 1%。從貸款類別來看，與第二季平均相比，工商業貸款小幅成長至446億美元。我們繼續看到經銷商和專業業務的成長。第三季度，商業房地產貸款平均下降​​ 2%，至 442 億美元。這種下降主要是由於我們持續採取減少資產負債表內此類資產敞口的策略所致。

We have chosen to modernize our suite of products and services to offer more alternatives to better serve customers and to do so in a more capital-efficient manner possible. Average residential real estate was $23.6 billion, down 1%, largely due to portfolio paydowns. Average customer loans were down slightly to $20.2 billion. The decline was driven by lower auto loan and HELOC balances, partially offset by the growth in recreational finance and credit card loans.

我們選擇對我們的產品和服務套件進行現代化改造，以提供更多替代方案，更好地為客戶服務，並以更有效率的資本效率方式實現這一目標。平均住宅房地產為 236 億美元，下降 1%，主要是由於投資組合支付。平均客戶貸款略有下降，至 202 億美元。下降的原因是汽車貸款和 HELOC 餘額減少，但部分被娛樂金融和信用卡貸款的成長所抵消。

Turning to Slide 14. Average investment securities decreased to $28 billion during the third quarter. The duration of the investment securities book at the end of September was 3.9 years and the unrealized pretax available-for-sale portfolio was only $447 million. At the end of the third quarter, cash held at the Fed and investment securities totaled $59.2 billion, representing 28% of total assets.

轉向投影片 14。第三季平均投資證券減少至 280 億美元。截至9月底，投資證券帳簿的期限為3.9年，未實現的稅前可供出售投資組合僅4.47億美元。第三季末，聯準會持有的現金和投資證券總計592億美元，佔總資產的28%。

Turning to Slide 15. We continue to focus on growing deposits with our customers, and we're pleased with the growth in both average and end-of-period customer deposits. Average total deposits grew $3.3 billion. However, consistent with our experience in prior rising rate environments, increased competition for deposits and customer behavior continues the mix shift within the deposit base to higher cost deposits. Average customer deposits increased $1 billion. The customer deposit mix to migrate to average demand deposits declined $2.3 billion in favor of commercial sweeps and customer money market savings and time deposits.

轉向投影片 15。我們繼續關注客戶存款的成長，我們對平均和期末客戶存款的成長感到滿意。平均存款總額成長 33 億美元。然而，與我們在先前利率上升環境中的經驗一致，存款競爭的加劇和客戶行為繼續導致存款基礎轉向更高成本存款的混合。平均客戶存款增加 10 億美元。轉向平均活期存款的客戶存款組合下降了 23 億美元，有利於商業掃款以及客戶貨幣市場儲蓄和定期存款。

Average brokered deposits increased $3.2 billion (sic) [$2.3 billion], while a federal home loan bank advances decreased $2.2 billion. On average, brokered money market and NOW increased $800 million, brokered time increased $1.5 billion. Brokered deposits represent just one of the several funding vehicles that we can employ in our management of the balance sheet. At September 30 of this year, brokered deposits represented 8% of our outstanding deposits and short-term borrowings.

平均經紀存款增加了 32 億美元（原文如此）[23 億美元]，而聯邦住房貸款銀行預付款減少了 22 億美元。平均而言，經紀貨幣市場和 NOW 增加了 8 億美元，經紀時間增加了 15 億美元。經紀存款只是我們在資產負債表管理中可以使用的幾種融資工具之一。截至今年9月30日，經紀存款占我們未償還存款和短期借款的8%。

The pace and reduction in demand deposits seem to have decreased during the quarter. Our determined focus on retaining and growing customer deposits yielded positive results during the quarter.

本季活期存款的成長速度和減少量似乎有所下降。我們堅定地致力於保留和增加客戶存款，在本季度取得了積極的成果。

Next, let's discuss noninterest income. Please turn to Slide 16. Noninterest income totaled $560 million in the third quarter compared to $803 million in the linked quarter. As noted earlier, the second quarter included $225 million from the sale of the CIT business. Excluding this gain, third quarter noninterest income decreased $18 million compared to the second quarter driven predominantly by $15 million related to one month of the CIT trust revenues included in the previous quarter. Other revenues categories were largely unchanged from the linked quarter.

接下來，我們來討論非利息收入。請參閱投影片 16。第三季非利息收入總計 5.6 億美元，而上一季為 8.03 億美元。如前所述，第二季出售的 CIT 業務收入為 2.25 億美元。排除此收益，第三季非利息收入較第二季減少 1,800 萬美元，主要是由於上一季 CIT 信託一個月收入相關的 1,500 萬美元所致。其他收入類別與上一季相比基本沒有變化。

Turning to Slide 17 for expenses. Noninterest expenses were $1.28 billion in the third quarter of this year, down $15 million from the linked quarter. That decrease in expense was due to $11 million in lower compensation and benefit costs, reflecting lower average headcount, lower expenses for contracted resources and overtime. $6 million lower in other cost of operations, largely reflecting lower sub-advisory fees as a result of the sale of the CIT business, lower legal-related expenses, partially offset by losses associated with certain retail banking activities. The efficiency ratio, which excludes intangible amortization and merger-related expenses from the numerator and security gains or losses from a denominator was 53.7% in the recent quarter compared to 53.4% in the linked quarter after excluding the gain from the sale of the CIT business.

請參閱投影片 17 以了解費用。今年第三季非利息支出為 12.8 億美元，較上一季減少 1,500 萬美元。費用減少的原因是薪資和福利成本減少了 1,100 萬美元，反映出平均員工人數減少、合約資源和加班費用減少。其他營運成本降低了 600 萬美元，主要反映了因出售 CIT 業務而導致的輔助諮詢費用降低、法律相關費用降低，部分被某些零售銀行業務相關損失所抵消。最近一個季度的效率比率（分子中不包括無形攤銷和合併相關費用，分母中不包括證券損益）為 53.7%，而剔除出售 CIT 業務收益後，上一季的效率率為 53.4% 。

Next, let's turn to Slide 18 for credit. The allowance for credit losses amounted to $2.1 billion at the end of the third quarter, up $54 million from the end of the linked quarter. In the third quarter, we recorded a $150 million provision in credit losses which was equal to the second quarter. Net charge-offs were $96 million in the third quarter compared to $127 million in the linked quarter. The reserve build was primarily reflective of softening CRE values and the variability in the timing and the amount of CRE charge-offs. At the end of the third quarter, nonaccrual loans were $2.3 billion, a decrease of $94 million compared to the prior quarter and represent 1.77% of loans, down 6 basis points sequentially.

接下來，讓我們翻到投影片 18 以獲得來源。截至第三季末，信貸損失準備金達21億美元，比上一季末增加5,400萬美元。第三季度，我們記錄了 1.5 億美元的信貸損失撥備，與第二季度持平。第三季的淨沖銷額為 9,600 萬美元，而上一季的淨沖銷額為 1.27 億美元。儲備金的增加主要反映了 CRE 價值的疲軟以及 CRE 沖銷時間和數量的變化。第三季末，非應計貸款為23億美元，比上季減少9,400萬美元，佔貸款的1.77%，比上一季下降6個基點。

As noted, net charge-offs for the recent quarter amounted to $96 million, significant charge-offs were tied in 4 large credits, 3 large office buildings in Washington, D.C., Boston and Connecticut, and one large health care provider operating in multiple properties in Western New York and Pennsylvania. Annualized net charge-offs as a percentage of total loans were 29 basis points for the third quarter compared to 38 basis points in the second quarter. This brings our year-to-date net charge-off rate to 30 basis points, which is below our long-term average of 33 basis points.

如前所述，最近一個季度的淨沖銷額為9,600 萬美元，大量沖銷涉及4 個大額信貸、位於華盛頓特區、波士頓和康涅狄格州的3 座大型辦公大樓，以及在多個物業中運營的一家大型醫療保健提供者位於紐約州西部和賓夕法尼亞州。第三季年化淨沖銷佔貸款總額的百分比為 29 個基點，而第二季為 38 個基點。這使我們今年迄今的淨沖銷率達到 30 個基點，低於我們 33 個基點的長期平均值。

We continue to assess the impact on future maturities and our investor real estate portfolio due to the level of interest rates, the impact of value declines and emerging tenancy issues. Continued targeted deep portfolio [dies] in office, health care and multifamily portfolios are being done to identify any new emerging issues. When we file our upcoming Form 10-Q in the few weeks, we will estimate the level of criticized loans will be up to mid- to high single-digit percent as compared to the end of June, largely due to increases in investor real estate.

我們將繼續評估利率水準、價值下降的影響和新出現的租賃問題對未來到期日和投資者房地產投資組合的影響。正在繼續對辦公室、醫療保健和多家庭投資組合進行有針對性的深度投資組合，以確定任何新出現的問題。當我們在幾週內提交即將發布的 10-Q 表格時，我們將估計與 6 月底相比，受到批評的貸款水平將達到中高個位數百分比，這主要是由於投資者房地產的增加。

Reflective of the financial strength and portfolio diversification of the CRE borrowers, almost 90% of the criticized loans are paying as agreed. Loans 90 days past due on which we continue to accrue interest, were $354 million at the end of this quarter compared to $308 million -- $380 million sequentially and total 76% of these 90 days past due loans were guaranteed by government-related entities.

近 90% 的受批評貸款均按約定償還，這反映了商業房地產借款人的財務實力和投資組合多元化。截至本季末，我們繼續應計利息的逾期 90 天貸款為 3.54 億美元，而上一季為 3.08 億美元至 3.8 億美元，這些逾期 90 天貸款中的 76% 由政府相關實體提供擔保。

Turning to Slide 19 for capital. M&T's CIT (sic) [CET1] ratio at the end of September was an estimated 10.94% compared to 10.59% at the end of the second quarter. The increase was due in part to the continuation of the pause of repurchasing shares. At the end of September, based upon the proposed capital rules, the negative AOCI impact on the CET1 ratio from variable for sale securities and pension-related components would be approximately 36 basis points.

轉向投影片 19 了解資本。 M&T 9 月底的企業所得稅（原文如此）[CET1] 比率估計為 10.94%，而第二季末為 10.59%。增加的部分原因是繼續暫停回購股票。 9月底，根據擬議的資本規則，可變出售證券和退休金相關成分對CET1比率的負面AOCI影響約為36個基點。

Now turning to Slide 20 for outlook. With 3 quarters in the books, we will focus on the outlook for the fourth quarter. First, let's talk about the economic outlook. The economic environment was supportive in the third quarter, and we were cautiously optimistic heading into the last quarter of this year. In the third quarter, the overall economy continued to expand, thanks to the strong consumer spending and steady capital expenditures by businesses, though the housing market continues to struggle in the high-rate environment.

現在轉向幻燈片 20 進行展望。帳面上已經有 3 個季度了，我們將重點放在第四季度的前景。首先，我們來談談經濟前景。第三季的經濟環境有利，我們對今年最後一季持謹慎樂觀的態度。第三季度，儘管房地產市場繼續在高利率環境下掙扎，但由於強勁的消費支出和企業穩定的資本支出，整體經濟仍持續擴張。

Encouragingly, inflation continued to slow in label markets, while still tight improved substantially with steady hiring while age pressures dissipated. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we are cautiously optimistic that the economy will continue to grow, but at a slower rate. We expect that, that slower growth will continue reducing inflation pressures. The Federal Reserve has probably reached the end of its hike cycle, given slower inflation and recent run-up in long-term rates.

令人鼓舞的是，標籤市場的通膨持續放緩，但隨著招聘的穩定和年齡壓力的消散，緊縮狀況仍顯著改善。展望第四季度，我們對經濟將繼續成長但成長放緩持謹慎樂觀態度。我們預計，成長放緩將繼續減輕通膨壓力。鑑於通膨放緩和近期長期利率上升，聯準會可能已經結束升息週期。

With that economic backdrop, let's review our net interest income outlook. We expect taxable equivalent net interest income to be in the $1.71 billion to $1.74 billion range. As we noted on the previous calls, a key driver to net interest income continues to be the ability to efficiently fund earning asset growth. We expect the continued intense competition for deposits in the face of industry-wide outflows. We remain focused on growing customer deposits. For the fourth quarter, we expect average deposits to be about the same level with growth of interest-bearing customer deposits but continue to decline in demand deposit balances. This is expected to translate into a through-the-cycle interest-bearing customer deposit beta through the fourth quarter this year to be in the mid-40% range. This deposit beta excludes brokered deposits, including brokered deposits, would add 6% to the beta. While the percent of the cumulative beta is slowing, we anticipate it will continue rising into the first half of next year.

在這樣的經濟背景下，讓我們回顧一下我們的淨利息收入前景。我們預計應稅等值淨利息收入將在 17.1 億美元至 17.4 億美元之間。正如我們在先前的電話會議中指出的那樣，淨利息收入的關鍵驅動因素仍然是有效為獲利資產成長提供資金的能力。我們預計，在全行業資金外流的情況下，存款競爭將持續激烈。我們仍然專注於增加客戶存款。對於第四季度，我們預計平均存款將與計息客戶存款成長大致持平，但活期存款餘額將繼續下降。預計到今年第四季度，整個週期的計息客戶存款貝塔值將達到 40% 左右。此存款貝塔值不包括經紀存款，包括經紀存款在內，貝塔值將增加 6%。雖然累積貝塔值的百分比正在放緩，但我們預計它將繼續上升到明年上半年。

Next, let's discuss the outlook for the average loan growth, which should be the main driver of earning asset growth. We expect average loans and lease balances to be slightly higher than the third quarter of $1.33 billion level. We expect the growth in C&I, but anticipate declines in CRE and residential mortgages for our consumer loan balances should be relatively flat.

接下來，讓我們討論平均貸款成長的前景，這應該是獲利資產成長的主要驅動力。我們預計平均貸款和租賃餘額將略高於第三季 13.3 億美元的水平。我們預計 C&I 會成長，但預計 CRE 和住宅抵押貸款將下降，因為我們的消費貸款餘額應該相對持平。

Turning to fees. We expect noninterest income to be essentially flat compared to the third quarter. Turning to expenses. We anticipate expenses, excluding intangible amortization and the FDIC special assessment to be in the $1.245 billion to the $1.265 billion range in the fourth quarter. Intangible amortization is expected to be in the $15 million range and the FDIC special assessment is anticipated to be $183 million. Given the prospects of slowing revenue growth we remain focused on diligently managing expenses. Turning to credit. We continue to expect loan losses for the full year to be near M&T's long-term average of 33 basis points. which implies fourth quarter charge-offs could be higher than the third quarter. For the fourth quarter, we expect tax flow equipment tax rate to be in the 25% range.

轉向費用。我們預計非利息收入與第三季相比基本持平。轉向開支。我們預計第四季的支出（不包括無形攤銷和 FDIC 特別評估）將在 12.45 億美元至 12.65 億美元之間。無形攤銷預計在 1500 萬美元範圍內，FDIC 特別評估預計為 1.83 億美元。鑑於收入成長放緩的前景，我們仍然專注於努力管理支出。轉向信用。我們繼續預計全年貸款損失將接近 M&T 33 個基點的長期平均值。這意味著第四季的沖銷可能高於第三季。對於第四季度，我們預計稅流設備稅率將在25%的範圍內。

Finally, as it relates to capital, our capital, coupled with limited investment security marks have been a clear differentiator for M&T. M&T has proven to be a safe haven for clients and communities. The strength of our balance sheet is extraordinary. We take our responsibility to manage our shareholders' capital very seriously and return capital loan it is appropriate to do that. Our businesses are performing very well, and we are growing new relationships each and every day. We are still evaluating the proposed capital rules so that we believe that now is not the time to be purchasing shares. That said, we are positioned to use our capital for organic growth. Buybacks have always been part of our core capital distribution strategy and will again in the future. In the meantime, our strong balance sheet will continue to differentiate us from our clients, communities, regulators, investors and rating agencies.

最後，就資本而言，我們的資本加上有限的投資安全標記一直是 M&T 的明顯差異化因素。事實證明，M&T 是客戶和社區的避風港。我們的資產負債表實力非凡。我們有責任非常認真地管理股東資本並返還資本貸款（這是適當的做法）。我們的業務表現非常出色，並且每天都在發展新的關係。我們仍在評估擬議的資本規則，因此我們認為現在不是購買股票的時候。也就是說，我們準備好利用我們的資本實現有機成長。回購一直是我們核心資本分配策略的一部分，未來也會如此。同時，我們強大的資產負債表將繼續使我們在客戶、社區、監管機構、投資者和評級機構中脫穎而出。

To conclude on Slide 21, our results underscore an optimistic investment thesis. While economic uncertainty remains high, that is when M&T has historically outperformed its peers. M&T has always been a purpose-driven organization with successful business model that benefits all stakeholders, including shareholders. We have a long track record of credit outperforming through all economic cycles with growth about 2x that of peers. Our strong shareholder returns include 15% to 20% return on tangible common equity and robust dividend growth.

投影片 21 的結論是，我們的結果強調了樂觀的投資論點。儘管經濟不確定性仍然很高，但 M&T 的表現歷來優於同業。 M&T 一直是一個以目標為導向的組織，擁有成功的商業模式，使包括股東在內的所有利害關係人受益。我們擁有在所有經濟週期中信貸表現優於同業的長期記錄，成長率約為同業的 2 倍。我們強勁的股東回報包括 15% 至 20% 的有形普通股回報率和強勁的股息成長。

Finally, our disciplined acquirer and prudent steward of capital -- shareholder capital and our integrated -- our integration of People's merger is completed. We are confident in our ability to realize our potential first merger. Now with that, I'll turn it back to our caller who'll briefly review the instructions.

最後，我們紀律嚴明的收購者和審慎的資本管家——股東資本和我們的整合——我們的人民整合完成了。我們對實現首次合併的能力充滿信心。現在，我將其轉回給我們的呼叫者，他將簡要查看說明。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。

You spoke about a mid- to high single-digit increase in criticized loans this quarter. I was wondering how is the mix changing between hotel, health care and office. And it also looks like nonaccrual loans take lower this quarter. So, can you talk about what the drivers are there? Whether there's loan sales or any other underlying drivers? And if that had any benefit to net interest income this quarter?

您談到本季受批評的貸款出現中高個位數成長。我想知道飯店、醫療保健和辦公室之間的組合有何變化。本季非應計貸款似乎也有所下降。那麼，您能談談驅動程式有哪些嗎？是否存在貸款銷售或任何其他潛在驅動因素？這是否對本季的淨利息收入有任何好處？

Yes, happy to do that. So on the criticized increase, it's really just more of the same that we're seeing. It's more increases just in our IRE portfolio, primarily on the office side for the most part. So, nothing really different from trends that we're seeing as far as nonaccruals, there was one large property that was sold in New York that was a primary driver for the nonaccruals. We actually had a gain in that that helped margin probably by about $5 million in the quarter.

是的，很高興這樣做。因此，就受到批評的成長而言，實際上與我們所看到的情況差不多。我們的 IRE 產品組合有更多成長，主要是在辦公室方面。因此，就非應計費用而言，與我們所看到的趨勢沒有什麼不同，在紐約出售的一處大型房產是非應計費用的主要驅動力。實際上，我們在該季度獲得了大約 500 萬美元的利潤。

Got it. And then maybe just on the buybacks. What is the criteria to resume the buybacks from here? Because it seems like we have more clarity on regulation at this point. Is it a function of M&T issuing more in the debt markets and then starting buybacks? Is it to do with the credit rating agencies? Any color you can throw there would be helpful. especially given how much excess capital M&T has at this point?

知道了。然後也許只是回購。從這裡恢復回購的標準是什麼？因為目前我們的監管似乎更加清晰。這是 M&T 在債務市場發行更多債券然後開始回購的結果嗎？跟信用評等機構有關係嗎？你可以扔在那裡的任何顏色都會有幫助。特別是考慮到 M&T 目前有多少過剩資本？

Yes. So, I definitely agree with you, Manan, in that we do have excess capital. But right now, the economy is still kind of unpredictable, rates higher for long, we'll probably continue to have stress on clients over the next couple of quarters if that actually comes to fruition. They were just trying to be conservative and cautious at the same time. And it's also for us to actually have an opportunity to continue to grow organic growth in our commercial and consumer books and our trust folks as well.

是的。所以，我絕對同意你的觀點，馬南，我們確實有過剩的資本。但目前，經濟仍然難以預測，利率長期走高，如果這真的實現的話，我們可能會在接下來的幾季繼續給客戶帶來壓力。他們只是試圖同時保持保守和謹慎。這也讓我們真正有機會繼續在我們的商業和消費書籍以及我們的信託人員中實現有機成長。

So, I think we're just trying to be cautious and we know when the economy gets a little bit more comfortable, we'll consider repurchases there. It is true to our long corn strategy, the capital distribution back to the shareholders. It's not going anywhere, but we just want to continue to make sure that we're strong and can grow and serve our customers right now.

因此，我認為我們只是想保持謹慎，我們知道當經濟變得更加舒適時，我們會考慮在那裡回購。這符合我們的長期玉米策略，將資本分配回股東。它不會去任何地方，但我們只是想繼續確保我們強大並且能夠立即成長並為我們的客戶提供服務。

The next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Good morning. I guess just want to follow up, in terms of -- so, your NII guidance for fourth quarter is fairly clear, but we are hearing from some of your peers around potential for the margin NII bottoming in the fourth quarter especially if the Fed is done, give us your thought process around -- is there something about your balance sheet, why that might get pushed out because of just deposits have been related to the price or the dynamics on your balance sheet or your markets? Any color there would be appreciated.

早安.我想只是想跟進一下，所以，你們對第四季度的 NII 指導相當明確，但我們從你們的一些同行那裡聽到了關於利潤率 NII 在第四季度觸底的可能性，特別是如果美聯儲完成之後，請告訴我們您的思考過程- 您的資產負債表是否存在某些問題，為什麼可能會因為存款與您的資產負債表或市場的價格或動態相關而被排除？任何顏色都會受到讚賞。

Yes. Manan, it's really the biggest driver for the net interest margin for us right now is really what happens to our noninterest-bearing deposits. We were down $2.3 billion that was better than what we thought it would be. And we think that it's slowing down. We'll see how that plays out in the fourth quarter. But that is probably the biggest determining factor. When you look at our balance sheet, though, I'm actually pretty pleased with how the assets are repricing. If you look at the reactivity rate of some of our fixed portfolios, if you look at this quarter, like our consumer loan portfolio was up 22 basis points.

是的。 Manan，目前我們的淨利差的最大驅動因素實際上是我們的無利息存款所發生的情況。我們減少了 23 億美元，比我們想像的要好。我們認為它正在放緩。我們將在第四季度看看情況如何。但這可能是最大的決定因素。不過，當你查看我們的資產負債表時，我實際上對資產的重新定價方式非常滿意。如果你看看我們一些固定投資組合的反應率，如果你看看本季度，我們的消費貸款投資組合上升了 22 個基點。

We have home equity in there that is prime related, but that's a smaller percentage. We have really good repricing and other consumer portfolios like auto was up approximately 300 basis points in what was rolling off versus what was rolling on. If you look at our RV and loan portfolio, that was up a practically 250 basis points of what was rolling off from on, so, I think once we get more stability in the disintermediation of deposits, I'm more favorable and the margins stabilizing. I think the asset side is actually performing pretty well.

我們那裡有與主要相關的房屋淨值，但比例較小。我們的重新定價非常好，其他消費投資組合（例如汽車）的滾動價格與滾動價格相比上漲了約 300 個基點。如果你看看我們的房車和貸款投資組合，你會發現，從現在開始，它幾乎上漲了250 個基點，所以，我認為，一旦我們在存款脫媒方面獲得更大的穩定性，我就會更有利，利潤率也會穩定下來。我認為資產端實際上表現得很好。

Noted. And I guess just moving maybe give us a mark-to-market in terms of commercial real estate, what you're seeing around there's some concern whether if we go into next year, given what the yield cost done, we might see some more pressure flow beyond CRE office into multifamily. So, one, give us a sense of like on CRE office has the visibility improved around the level of marks that you might have to take as some of this work through this system and whether or not you're seeing more pain beyond the office complex.

著名的。我想只是搬家可能會讓我們在商業房地產方面按市值計價，你所看到的情況是，如果我們進入明年，考慮到收益率成本，我們可能會看到更多壓力從商業地產辦公大樓流入多戶住宅。因此，首先，讓我們感覺 CRE 辦公室的可見性得到了提高，您可能必須透過該系統進行某些工作，以及您是否看到辦公大樓之外的更多痛苦。

Yes. So, on the office side, I would tell you, our credit team, we feel really on top of what's going on there. I think we are actively looking at any credit that could be and have any issues whatsoever. We're looking at it. I'm trying to put the right valuation in there. We traditionally run with a higher level of criticized assets because we have a lot of long-term clients that have been with M&T for a long time period. They have other sources of cash flow to help carry the loans and are willing to put in equity to help support the loans. When we do find loans that there is not support around, we'll probably move to exit those.

是的。因此，在辦公室方面，我想告訴你，我們的信貸團隊，我們真的感覺自己掌握了那裡正在發生的事情。我認為我們正在積極研究任何可能存在或存在任何問題的信用。我們正在研究它。我正在嘗試在那裡進行正確的估值。傳統上，我們營運的受批評資產水平較高，因為我們有許多長期客戶，他們與 M&T 合作了很長時間。他們有其他現金流來源來幫助承擔貸款，並願意投入股本來幫助支持貸款。當我們確實發現沒有支持的貸款時，我們可能會採取行動退出這些貸款。

As far as the valuations go, there's still not a whole lot of specifics out there. We did have that one sale for us that actually was a little bit better than what we had at mark there, but that was one -- one big loan. So, I wouldn't say that's a trend by any stretch right now. But I think we feel pretty good on where we are. As far as the other asset classes, I think we -- just with rates higher for longer, just puts more -- just tougher for some of our -- the customers.

就估值而言，目前還沒有太多細節。我們確實進行了一筆銷售，實際上比我們在那裡的銷售要好一點，但那隻是一筆——一筆大貸款。所以，我不會說這是目前的趨勢。但我認為我們對自己所處的位置感覺很好。就其他資產類別而言，我認為我們——只是利率在更長時間內更高，只是投入更多——對我們的一些客戶來說更艱難。

And multifamily is an area that we are looking at as well. Nothing really is popping out of anything very superior there yet. But we're just trying to stay ahead of what potentially could happen and kind of be preemptive if we see anything. So, we're just preparing. Our credit team is very experienced. We've been very good with commercial real estate for a long time, and we are on top of where we are.

多戶住宅也是我們正在關注的領域。那裡還沒有真正出現任何非常優越的東西。但我們只是試圖領先於可能發生的情況，並在發現任何情況時先發製人。所以，我們只是在做準備。我們的信貸團隊經驗豐富。長期以來，我們在商業房地產領域一直表現出色，並且處於領先地位。

Next question comes from Erika Najarian with UBS..

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的埃里卡·納賈里安（Erika Najarian）。

I just wanted to clarify sort of the responses to Ebrahim's question, Daryl. I'm just wondering as you think about the forward curve as we see it, at what point do you expect net interest income to trough based on what we know about the curve and what we know about the various puts and takes for growth and deposit actions.

我只是想澄清對易卜拉欣問題的一些回答，達裡爾。我只是想知道，當您考慮我們所看到的遠期曲線時，根據我們對曲線的了解以及我們對增長和存款的各種看跌期權和索取期權的了解，您預計淨利息收入在什麼時候會觸底行動。

Yes. From a framework perspective, it's really when the intermediation slows down. And when this intermediation slows down, I think on the asset side, is performing well and will continue to reprice higher because I think we're going to have a steeper curve for a longer period of time. And hopefully, that will happen in the next couple of quarters, but it's really hard to know right now we think it's slowing but I think we'll just see how that plays out. I'll give you guidance next earnings call on the fourth quarter on that. But conditions could be slowing down with what we're seeing right now, but 1 quarter is not a trend. I just want to get a couple of quarters under our belt before we really say net interest margin is going to stabilize.

是的。從框架的角度來看，這確實是中介速度減慢的時候。當這種中介放緩時，我認為在資產方面表現良好，並將繼續重新定價更高，因為我認為我們將在更長的時間內擁有更陡峭的曲線。希望這會在接下來的幾個季度發生，但現在真的很難知道我們認為它正在放緩，但我認為我們會看看結果如何。我將在第四季的下一次財報電話會議上就此向您提供指導。但就我們現在所看到的情況來看，情況可能會放緩，但第一季並不是趨勢。我只想在我們真正說淨利差將穩定之前先了解幾個季度的情況。

Got it. And as a follow-up to that, your period-end cash balance rose to $30 billion, Daryl, which is awesome dry powder. And as we think about the quarters ahead on one hand, it potentially -- the Fed is peaking, right? And you seem to be rather asset sensitive. On the other, you have all these new rules on liquidity that we don't have yet as well as treatment of AFS for regional banks. So, how should we think about an absence of stronger net loan growth. The puts and takes of what you're -- are you just going to continue to build cash and be a little bit more asset sensitive even though we're peaking in rates as we figure out what the final rules look like on both capital and liquidity.

知道了。作為後續行動，你的期末現金餘額上升到 300 億美元，達裡爾，這是很棒的乾粉。當我們一方面思考未來幾季時，聯準會可能正在見頂，對吧？而且你似乎對資產相當敏感。另一方面，我們還沒有關於流動性的所有這些新規則，以及區域銀行的 AFS 處理。那麼，我們應該如何看待淨貸款成長不強勁的情況。你的看跌期權和賣出期權——你是否會繼續積累現金，並對資產更加敏感，即使我們在弄清楚資本和資本方面的最終規則時，利率已經達到頂峰？流動性。

I think we have the strong position at the Fed that's intentional for us right now. We want to be really conservative with our cash and liquidity position. Like I said earlier, the economy is doing okay, but slowing down and maybe hopefully not get into a recession, but we just want to be really careful and cautious from that perspective. So, I think it's an intentional where we're staying there. Will we invest some of that obviously into loans, we would love to do that to support our customers, but we are not widening our credit box whatsoever. We're going to grow what the market will give us.

我認為我們在聯準會的強勢地位現在對我們來說是有意的。我們希望對我們的現金和流動性狀況非常保守。正如我之前所說，經濟表現不錯，但正在放緩，也許希望不會陷入衰退，但從這個角度來看，我們只是想非常小心和謹慎。所以，我認為我們住在那裡是故意的。我們是否會將其中一些顯然投資於貸款，我們很樂意這樣做來支持我們的客戶，但我們不會擴大我們的信貸範圍。我們將根據市場的需求進行成長。

But we do think there's opportunities to grow relationships and to potentially grow balances in some of our loan categories. So, we'll see how that plays out. As far as deploying some of it -- the cash into the securities portfolio, I would just say that over the next year, you might see us move a little bit to the investment portfolio, but it will be on a gradual basis.

但我們確實認為有機會發展關係並有可能增加我們某些貸款類別的餘額。那麼，我們將看看結果如何。至於將其中一些現金部署到證券投資組合中，我只想說，在明年，您可能會看到我們稍微向投資組合轉移，但這將是漸進的。

The next question comes from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

First, sorry if I missed it, but did you comment on what your reserves are against your office book?

首先，抱歉，如果我錯過了，但是您是否評論過您的辦公簿儲備金？

We haven't made that probably, Matt, but it continues to increase where we are right now. So, we had an increase in our allowance, we had a little over $50 million. I'd say about half of it went to the CRE portfolio, and half of it went to the C&I portfolio. So, I think we were adding it where we think it's appropriate based upon our models and performance.

馬特，我們可能還沒有做到這一點，但我們現在的情況仍在繼續增加。因此，我們的津貼增加，略高於 5000 萬美元。我想說大約一半流向商業房地產投資組合，一半流向工商業投資組合。因此，我認為我們根據我們的模型和性能將其添加到我們認為合適的位置。

Okay. Yes, that would be helpful again over time. I know everybody's book is a little bit different, but many of your peers are disclosing so that would be helpful as you think my disclosure is obviously an area of focus. Maybe switching gears, like, as you think about all the capital that you have and liquidity and the balance sheet flexibility, what areas of lending are you leaning into, not just kind of looking at 1 quarter but the next few quarters. And is it kind of doing more business with existing customers or also trying to grow the customer footprint?

好的。是的，隨著時間的推移，這會再次有所幫助。我知道每個人的書都有點不同，但是您的許多同行都在披露，因此這會有所幫助，因為您認為我的披露顯然是一個重點領域。也許換個角度，例如，當你考慮你擁有的所有資本、流動性和資產負債表靈活性時，你傾向於哪些貸款領域，不僅僅是關註一個季度，而是關注接下來的幾個季度。是與現有客戶開展更多業務還是試圖擴大客戶足跡？

I mean, this past quarter, we had growth in our dealership businesses. As the strike was starting to happen, I think a lot of dealers actually stocked up on used cars, and that actually drove an increase in utilization in that one sector are a little bit earlier than normal there. That will probably continue to play out, I think, into the fourth quarter while would be one. Our large corporate banking, I think, has some growth opportunities where we're positioned there.

我的意思是，上個季度，我們的經銷商業務有所成長。隨著罷工開始發生，我認為許多經銷商實際上都在囤積二手車，這實際上推動了該行業利用率的增加，這比正常情況要早一些。我認為，這種情況可能會持續到第四季度，而這將是其中之一。我認為，我們的大型企業銀行業務在我們所處的位置上有一些成長機會。

Specifically on fund banking, I think we're growing there nicely. It's a very conservative portfolio, very short-term oriented, lower risk areas. So, I would say most of the growth that we're seeing is in the C&I space. Those are the highlights right now. It is very competitive in middle market C&I. We are trying to be competitive there. But right now, the higher interest rates are just putting a lot of our commercial clients to be a little bit more cautious. But when they're willing to borrow, we're trying to help them when that's -- when we're able to do that. So.

特別是在基金銀行業務方面，我認為我們在這方面發展得很好。這是一個非常保守的投資組合，非常短期導向，風險較低。所以，我想說，我們看到的大部分成長來自工商業領域。這些都是目前的亮點。它在中間市場 C&I 非常有競爭力。我們正在努力在那裡保持競爭力。但目前，較高的利率只是讓我們的許多商業客戶變得更加謹慎。但當他們願意借錢時，我們就會在我們有能力的時候盡力幫助他們。所以。

The next question comes from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。

I wanted to follow up on your comments around a higher for longer rate environment being tougher for your customers. As you look across your portfolio, do you have a good handle on the degree to which some of your customers had put on swaps maybe when we were still under [0], 2 to 3 years ago. So, they haven't yet felt the pressure of higher rates. Curious about whether the rolling off of those swaps is something you worry about, not really not just in CRE, but really across all loan categories.

我想跟進您關於更高、更長的費率環境對您的客戶來說更加困難的評論。當您查看您的投資組合時，您是否能夠很好地掌握一些客戶在 2 到 3 年前，當我們仍處於 [0] 水平以下時進行掉期交易的程度。因此，他們還沒有感受到升息的壓力。很好奇這些掉期的取消是否是您擔心的事情，不僅是在商業房地產領域，而且是在所有貸款類別中。

Yes. I think, obviously, Bill, I mean, people that did swaps 3 years ago are really fortunate that they did, but it depends on the maturities when they roll off. And when they do roll off, it does put pressure on some clients that basically just have higher interest payments there. So, that is impacting much broader than just office, broader than just CRE. It's impacting, I think, all of the America right now, to be honest with you. I mean just higher rates for longer. I think the Fed wants to slow the economy down and we're definitely having that impact to do that, and they're accomplishing what they're achieving there.

是的。我認為，顯然，比爾，我的意思是，三年前進行掉期交易的人確實很幸運，但這取決於他們滾存時的到期日。當它們確實滾存時，確實會給一些基本上只需要支付更高利息的客戶帶來壓力。因此，這影響的範圍不僅限於辦公大樓、商業房地產。老實說，我認為它現在正在影響整個美國。我的意思是更高的利率、更長的時間。我認為聯準會希望減緩經濟成長，我們肯定會產生這種影響，而且他們正在實現他們正在實現的目標。

But we -- like I said earlier, we are on top of the portfolios where we see maturities coming up. We're looking at what we have to do, if anything, do they have other support on it. So, we're trying to stay ahead of what's coming down the pipe. Most of the maturities and swap are lined together so that they're pretty much in balance. So, when things come close to mature on loans is when we see if there's anything that needs to happen from a lending perspective. But I think the Fed is accomplishing what they're trying to do is slow the economy down, bring inflation down, and it's definitely having that impact.

但正如我之前所說，我們處於到期日即將到來的投資組合之上。我們正在考慮我們必須做什麼，如果有的話，他們是否有其他支援。因此，我們正在努力保持領先地位。大多數到期日和掉期都排列在一起，因此它們幾乎處於平衡狀態。因此，當貸款的情況接近成熟時，我們就會從貸款的角度來看是否需要發生任何事情。但我認為聯準會正在實現他們想要做的事情，那就是減緩經濟成長，降低通膨，這肯定會產生這種影響。

That's really helpful, Daryl. If I could follow up, as you continue to take actions to shift more of your focus to fee income as you reduce the credit risk associated with on-balance sheet CRE. How are you thinking about your sort of longer-term CET1 target before I guess, all of the developments of the last several quarters, we're sort of thinking of M&T being able to get to sort of that 9% CET1 target. But I guess, the inclusion of OCI volatility and regulatory capital has led to some debate over whether category for banks will now have to run with a little bit larger buffer versus history? Would appreciate any thoughts there.

這真的很有幫助，達裡爾。如果我能跟進，您將繼續採取行動，將更多的注意力轉移到費用收入上，同時降低與資產負債表內商業房地產相關的信用風險。我想，根據過去幾季的所有發展，您如何考慮長期 CET1 目標，我們認為 M&T 能夠實現 9% CET1 目標。但我猜想，納入 OCI 波動性和監管資本引發了一些爭論，即銀行類別現在是否必須以比歷史稍大一點的緩衝運行？非常感謝那裡的任何想法。

Yes. I think as the new rules play out and as we get comfortable working within the rules, we obviously start with a higher cushion at first. And then as you get used to managing the book and everything, I think we will tighten it up over time. But my guess is that we probably have a higher buffer coming out of the blocks. You have to really adjust your investment portfolio since the AFS is going to now go through the regulatory capital ratios to probably run with shorter durations either outright or invest longer with hedges that bring in the durations one way or the other, just so you have less volatility there. So, it's really just getting used to how we manage all that process. But our teams are working on that now and we will start operating that way probably well before we get the roles actually implemented from that perspective.

是的。我認為隨著新規則的實施以及我們在規則範圍內的工作變得舒適，我們顯然首先會從更高的緩衝開始。然後，當您習慣管理這本書和所有內容時，我認為我們會隨著時間的推移加強它。但我的猜測是，我們可能有更高的緩衝區來自區塊。你必須真正調整你的投資組合，因為AFS 現在將透過監管資本比率，可能會直接以較短的久期運行，或者透過對沖來投資更長的時間，以一種或另一種方式引入久期，這樣你就有更少的資金那裡的波動性。所以，其實只是習慣了我們管理所有流程的方式。但我們的團隊現在正在努力解決這個問題，我們可能會在從這個角度實際實施角色之前就開始以這種方式進行操作。

The next question comes from Brent Erensel with Portales Partners.

下一個問題來自 Portales Partners 的 Brent Erensel。

I was going to follow up on that stock buyback question. If you were to like incrementally invest the capital that you're generating at 7% you would generate half the returns that you could by buying back stock. So, you need double-digit returns to equate that, if that question makes sense. So, the question, I guess, is when -- at what point will the corporate finance maths drive you to resume buybacks?

我打算跟進股票回購問題。如果你想以 7% 的利率增量投資你所產生的資本，那麼你所獲得的報酬將是回購股票報酬的一半。因此，如果這個問題有意義的話，你需要兩位數的回報來等同這一點。所以，我想，問題是企業財務數學何時會促使您恢復回購？

So, the Corporate Finance math is screaming that it's a 5% right now. It's really more of our cautious position, conservative nature that we have to make sure that we have really strong capital, strong liquidity to really weather what comes our way. I mean if the Fed stays higher rates, let's say, for 3 years or whatever, that could really have a big impact on the economy. We just want to be really cautious and all that. So, I think we're just trying to be prudent with it. Like I said earlier, the capital has not gone anywhere. We won't -- I promise you we would deploy it in a really shareholder-friendly manner from that. But right now, we have strong capital, strong liquidity, which has been really helpful for us since the March, April time frame, and we will continue to operate and be a strong supporter of our customers and communities that we serve.

所以，企業財務數學現在是 5%。這實際上更多的是我們的謹慎立場和保守本質，我們必須確保我們擁有真正強大的資本和強大的流動性，以真正應對我們所遇到的困難。我的意思是，如果聯準會維持較高的利率，比如說三年或更長的時間，那確實可能對經濟產生重大影響。我們只是想非常謹慎等等。所以，我認為我們只是想謹慎行事。正如我之前所說，資本並沒有消失。我們不會——我向你保證，我們會以一種真正對股東友好的方式部署它。但現在，我們擁有雄厚的資本、強大的流動性，自三月、四月的時間範圍以來，這對我們確實有幫助，我們將繼續運營，並成為我們所服務的客戶和社區的堅定支持者。

Just is there a bell that's going to go off when you guys are going to change your mind? Or how should we -- do we just wait and see?

當你們要改變主意時，是否會有鈴聲響起？或者我們應該如何──我們只是觀望？

I will tell you, once we make that decision to go, my guess is you will find out very quickly when that decision is made.

我會告訴你，一旦我們決定離開，我猜你很快就會知道何時做出決定。

The next question comes from Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的傑拉德·卡西迪。

Daryl, over the years, M&T has been very effective in making acquisitions. Obviously, the People's -- that deal is the more recent acquisition that is now completely integrated. And we understand in talking to your peers and others that the interest rate marks make it very difficult for M&A today. So, I got a 2-part question for you.

Daryl，多年來，M&T 在收購方面一直非常有效。顯然，人民的這筆交易是最近的收購，現已完全整合。透過與您的同行和其他人交談，我們了解到，利率標記使當今的併購變得非常困難。所以，我有一個由兩個部分組成的問題想問你。

First, just what is your view on M&A for M&T over the next 12 to 24 months of traditional depositories. And then second, some of the P&C, in particular, was recently bought some assets from the FDA, I see some loans. Are you guys looking at any assets that might be for sale from the FDIC from the failed banks that we had earlier in this year?

首先，您對未來 12 到 24 個月傳統託管機構 M&T 的併購有何看法？其次，一些 P&C，特別是最近從 FDA 購買了一些資產，我看到了一些貸款。你們是否正在考慮從今年早些時候我們擁有的破產銀行中的 FDIC 出售的任何資產？

Yes. So, we didn't do a press release on it, but we did buy 2 loans from that same purchase P&C did. I think it was a total of about $300 million in commitments, it was at fund banking. So, we did participate in there, and we're able to get a couple of those loans as well. But we are constantly looking at where we can grow our customer base that are good, long-term customers that fit. We just don't want to do asset purchases, we want relationships is really what we're looking for to drive our organic growth from that.

是的。因此，我們沒有就此發布新聞稿，但我們確實從 P&C 的同一筆購買中購買了兩筆貸款。我認為總共有大約 3 億美元的承諾，是在基金銀行業務。所以，我們確實參與了那裡，我們也能夠獲得其中一些貸款。但我們一直在尋找可以在哪裡擴大我們的客戶群，這些客戶群是合適的、長期的好客戶。我們只是不想購買資產，我們真正想要的是建立關係來推動我們的有機成長。

As it relates to acquisitions, it's just -- you and I have been doing this for a long time. When I started, we had 18,000 banks in the early '80s. Now we're up to about 4,000 banks and it's going to continue to shrink. I think M&T has a great track record of acquiring bank over time. And that strategy hasn't changed. Our strategy is really to control and have lots of density in the markets that we serve. So, I think if and when we do purchase acquisitions, it probably won't be a surprise in where we're going and what we're trying to do from that perspective.

因為它與收購有關，所以你和我已經這樣做很久了。當我剛開始工作時，20 世紀 80 年代初我們有 18,000 家銀行。現在我們的銀行數量已達到約 4,000 家，而且還會繼續縮減。我認為 M&T 在收購銀行方面有著良好的記錄。這策略沒有改變。我們的策略實際上是控制我們所服務的市場並使其具有較高的密度。因此，我認為，如果我們進行收購，從這個角度來看，我們的去向和嘗試做的事情可能不會令人感到驚訝。

So, the strategy is there, and it will happen at some point down the road. The interest rates definitely make it a little bit more challenging now just because of the impact on capital. But like anything, things change over time, and we will be there when we need to and do what we've been really good at before, and we'll continue to do that.

所以，策略已經存在，並且會在未來的某個時刻發生。由於對資本的影響，利率肯定會讓現在變得更具挑戰性。但就像任何事情一樣，事情會隨著時間而改變，當我們需要時，我們就會在那裡，做我們以前真正擅長的事情，我們將繼續這樣做。

Very good. And then the second part, a different question as a follow-up. When M&T, of course, has developed a reputation as being a very strong underwriter, you got the numbers to prove it. And so, we're not necessarily concerned about what you guys are doing specifically but we always worry about the competitors doing foolish and stupid things that then end up having a second derivative effect on your sound underwriting decisions.

非常好。然後是第二部分，一個不同的問題作為後續。當然，當 M&T 作為非常強大的承銷商而享有盛譽時，你就會得到數據來證明這一點。因此，我們不一定關心你們具體在做什麼，但我們總是擔心競爭對手會做愚蠢的事情，最終會對您的合理承保決策產生二階導數影響。

Can you frame out for us -- granted, I know it's not in 2005 and 2006 craziness out there. But -- are there any concerns that you see nonbank lenders or other bank lenders doing or have done things in the last 18 to 24 months on the lending side that make you a little nervous? Or are we just in a new playing field, everybody is very rational, and we're not going to see anything really implode because of what some foolish lenders are doing?

你能為我們勾勒一下嗎——當然，我知道這不是 2005 年和 2006 年的瘋狂事。但是，您是否看到非銀行貸款機構或其他銀行貸款機構在過去 18 至 24 個月內在貸款方面所做或已經做的事情讓您感到有點緊張？或者我們只是處於一個新的競爭環境中，每個人都非常理性，我們不會因為一些愚蠢的貸方所做的而看到任何真正的內爆？

Yes. We have a long history of working with our clients. Client selection is really huge for us and how we look and underwrite. So, like in the CRE portfolio, we deal with people that have been in the business for a very long time that aren't just looking at that real estate investment that they have as an investment for more as a long-term strategy to their company and their family from that perspective.

是的。我們與客戶合作有著悠久的歷史。客戶選擇對我們以及我們的外觀和承保來說確實非常重要。因此，就像在商業房地產投資組合中一樣，我們與那些在該行業工作了很長時間的人打交道，他們不僅僅將他們擁有的房地產投資視為一種投資，更多地將其視為他們的長期策略。從這個角度來看，公司及其家人。

So, we really don't look at trying to get out of the criticized loans. If somebody is not going to support it, we will probably exit over time. But I don't really view how we are approaching it. I think it's a great way to develop and keep relationships over the long term. It's the right way and a fair way to do it. As long as they're willing to support their properties and loans with us from that perspective.

因此，我們確實不考慮試圖擺脫受到批評的貸款。如果有人不支持它，我們可能會隨著時間的推移而退出。但我並不真正認為我們是如何實現這一目標的。我認為這是發展和維持長期關係的好方法。這是正確的方式，也是公平的方式。只要他們願意從這個角度支持他們的財產和貸款。

I think overall, though, I think the industry is quite safer than what it has been over the last couple of decades. I think everybody is trying to do the right thing. We have the benefit that we have some really long-term customers that have been with M&T for a long period of time, and we try to bank the people that are really top in market in all the markets that we serve.

但總的來說，我認為這個行業比過去幾十年要安全得多。我認為每個人都在努力做正確的事。我們的優勢在於，我們擁有一些長期與 M&T 合作的長期客戶，並且我們努力為我們服務的所有市場中真正處於市場領先地位的人提供服務。

The next question comes from John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

Just a follow-up around the loan loss reserve. I know you had talked about the -- that the reserve addition was 50% for CRE and half going to C&I. And I'm just trying to frame out like what about the developments in the quarter drove the need for additional reserve additions beyond what would have already been baked into there under CECL? And then separately, can you maybe talk about the likelihood of further reserve build here just as you continue to dig through the CRE portfolio, I know you said a couple of times that there's ongoing efforts to sift through the exposures in that book.

只是圍繞著貸款損失準備金的後續行動。我知道您曾經談過，CRE 的準備增加金額為 50%，C&I 的一半。我只是想闡述一下，本季的發展是否推動了對額外儲備金增加的需求，超出了 CECL 已納入的儲備金？然後，當您繼續深入研究 CRE 投資組合時，您能否談談進一步建立儲備的可能性，我知道您曾說過幾次，正在努力篩選書中的風險敞口。

Yes. So, if you look at the macro factors, our macro factors when we run our allowance models, basically were pretty steady. Actually, that CREPI index actually improved a little bit. But the other economic statistics are pretty stable versus the prior period. And really what drove the increase was really softness in some of the asset values in the CRE portfolio is what we were seeing and thought it made sense to add some more reserves in those. As we get more examples of what valuations are that could help drive more or may actually -- I think we feel really reserved where we are today, but we just want to continue to have a really robust allowance for the needs of our borrowers and make sure we comply with all the rules that we have there. But it was really just a little bit of softness in some valuations.

是的。因此，如果你看一下宏觀因素，我們在運行津貼模型時的宏觀因素基本上是相當穩定的。事實上，CREPI 指數實際上有所改善。但其他經濟統計數據與前期相比相當穩定。推動這一成長的真正原因是商業房地產投資組合中某些資產價值的疲軟，這正是我們所看到的，並認為在這些資產中增加更多儲備是有意義的。隨著我們獲得更多關於估值的例子，這些估值可能有助於推動更多的成長，或者實際上可能——我認為我們對今天的處境感到非常保留，但我們只是想繼續為借款人的需求提供真正強勁的準備金，並讓確保我們遵守那裡的所有規則。但這其實只是某些估值有點疲軟。

And is that softness surprising you negatively? And is that why it's not already in the CECL reserve?

這種柔軟性是否讓你感到驚訝？這就是它尚未進入 CECL 儲備的原因嗎？

There's just not a lot of activity going on in some of these markets right now. So, you're basically -- there's a big market dislocation. A lot of the marks we're doing is conservative as they are with a net present value cash flow perspective. And we -- I think I went through it last time, but if some is not leased today, we assume it's not least for 3 years. If something is coming off lease within the next year, we assume that there's a 1-year gap period before it gets re-leased. Those type of cash flow adjustments are kind of what we're marking to, but we don't have anything to look at. But when you get a certain example, I would say then we can make an adjustment.

目前其中一些市場沒有太多活動。所以，基本上，市場存在著很大的混亂。我們所做的許多標記都是保守的，因為它們是從淨現值現金流的角度來看的。我們──我想我上次也經歷過，但如果今天有些房間沒有租出去，我們假設至少租了三年。如果某物在明年內到期，我們假設在重新出租之前有 1 年的間隔期。這些類型的現金流調整正是我們所標記的，但我們沒有任何可看的。但是當你得到某個例子時，我會說我們可以做出調整。

Our best though right now is that there's a lot of money waiting on the sidelines potentially that when the Fed does decide to keep rates more stable and maybe signal rates going down at some point, I think there will be a lot of money that will jump back into the system. Right now, there's just not a lot of going on, and there's a very wide bid-ask spread.

我們目前最好的情況是，有很多資金在觀望，當聯準會確實決定保持利率更加穩定，並且可能在某個時候發出利率下降的信號時，我認為會有很多資金會跳漲回到系統中。目前，沒有太多事情發生，而且買賣價差非常大。

Okay. That's helpful. One last follow-up, if I could, also on credit. Your -- I know your charge-off guidance for the fourth quarter, you expect it to be a low -- above the 29 basis point level for the third quarter and then full year '23 near the long-term 33 bps. Can you maybe help us think about what that would imply in terms of as you look into 2024. Maybe help us -- I know you're not giving formal guidance yet on '24, but how should we think about where the loss trajectory could be versus that longer-term 33? How much above that could it be?

好的。這很有幫助。如果可以的話，最後一次跟進也是賒帳的。我知道你對第四季度的沖銷指導，你預計它會低於第三季度的 29 個基點水平，然後是 23 年全年接近長期 33 個基點的水平。您能否幫助我們思考一下，當您展望 2024 年時，這意味著什麼。也許可以幫助我們——我知道您尚未就 24 年給出正式指導，但我們應該如何考慮損失軌跡可能會在哪裡與長期的33 相比？可能比這個高多少？

Yes, that's a good question. For the fourth quarter, it's just our gut feel that it might be higher. It could actually be the same or lower, to be honest with you right now, but just knowing what's going on right there. It might be higher, but we really aren't sure about that yet. Next year, we aren't really giving guidance, but from a framework perspective, our allowance will build when either market economic conditions allow for it or you see some deterioration in customer behavior. From that perspective. But right now, I think we're really on top of what it is, any areas that we potentially could have risk in our credit teams are all over it, looking at the reviews and the analysis that we have. And right now, what we feel that our reserve is adequate, and then we're in good touch with where the risks are.

是的，這是一個好問題。對於第四季度，我們的直覺是它可能會更高。老實說，它實際上可能相同或更低，但只是知道那裡發生了什麼。它可能會更高，但我們還不確定。明年，我們並沒有真正提供指導，但從框架的角度來看，當市場經濟條件允許或您看到客戶行為惡化時，我們的補貼將會增加。從這個角度來看。但現在，我認為我們確實掌握了情況，我們的信貸團隊可能面臨任何潛在風險的領域都在關注我們的評論和分析。現在，我們認為我們的儲備是充足的，然後我們可以很好地了解風險所在。

It appears we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the program back over to our presenters for any additional remarks.

目前看來我們沒有其他問題了。我現在將把節目交還給我們的主持人，以徵求補充意見。

Again, thank you all for participating today. And as always, the clarification of any of the items on the call or news release is necessary, please contact our Investor Relations department at area code 716-842-5138. Thank you and have a good day.

再次感謝大家今天的參與。與往常一樣，如有必要對電話會議或新聞稿中的任何項目進行澄清，請聯繫我們的投資者關係部門，電話區號 716-842-5138。謝謝你，有美好的一天。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。