ArcelorMittal SA (MT) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for joining the Q2 analyst call of ArcelorMittal. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Daniel Fairclough, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

歡迎並感謝您參加安賽樂米塔爾第二季度分析師電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Daniel Fairclough。請繼續。

Thank you, Moritz. Good afternoon, everyone. This is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team. Thank you very much for joining us on this call today. to discuss our performance for the first half 2023. I'm joined on this call today by our CEO, Aditya Mittal; our CFO, Genuino Christino, and by Stefan Buys, who is the CEO of our Mining segment.

謝謝你，莫里茨。大家下午好。我是來自安賽樂米塔爾投資者關係團隊的 Daniel Fairclough。非常感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。討論我們 2023 年上半年的業績。今天我們的首席執行官 Aditya Mittal 也參加了這次電話會議；我們的首席財務官 Genuino Christino 和我們採礦部門的首席執行官 Stefan Buys。

Before we begin, I would like to mention a few housekeeping items. As usual, we will not be going through the results presentation that we published this morning on our website. But I do want to draw your attention to the disclaimers on Slide #2 of that presentation. We will be moving directly to the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) And with that, I will hand over to Aditya for opening remarks.

在開始之前，我想提一下一些家務用品。與往常一樣，我們不會瀏覽今天早上在我們網站上發布的結果演示。但我確實想提請您注意該演示文稿第二張幻燈片上的免責聲明。我們將直接進入問答環節。 （操作員指示）接下來，我將請 Aditya 致開幕詞。

Thank you, Daniel, and welcome, everyone. There is much I could highlight, but I will keep my remarks brief and focused on 3 key messages. First, our results continue to reflect the structural improvements that we have made to our business. Second, we're making clear progress in our decarbonization agenda. And third, the investments we are making to grow and develop our business are positioning us very well for the future.

謝謝你，丹尼爾，歡迎大家。我可以強調的內容有很多，但我的發言將保持簡短，並重點關注 3 個關鍵信息。首先，我們的業績繼續反映了我們對業務所做的結構性改進。其次，我們的脫碳議程正在取得明顯進展。第三，我們為發展和發展業務而進行的投資為我們的未來奠定了良好的基礎。

Just to expand a little on these points. On structural improvement of the business, it is not just about the EBITDA improvement per tonne we are making, but also the dramatically different capital cost of our balance sheet and the impact of the strong contribution from our equity investments that drive the structural improvement to our free cash and net income. On decarb, as a truly global multi-region steel producer the scale and breadth of our business gives us many more options. I remain convinced that we can develop the right set of solutions that will allow us to decarbonize our footprint effectively and at a competitive cost. Our DRI/EAF projects are progressing. We are currently in the process of moving these projects from the pre-FEED stage to FEED stage, which includes the ordering of long lead time equipment.

只是對這些點進行一些擴展。在業務結構改善方面，這不僅僅是我們每噸 EBITDA 的改善，還包括我們資產負債表上截然不同的資本成本以及我們股權投資的強勁貢獻所帶來的影響，這些影響推動了我們的結構改善。自由現金和淨收入。在脫碳方面，作為真正的全球多地區鋼鐵生產商，我們業務的規模和廣度為我們提供了更多選擇。我仍然相信，我們可以開發出一套正確的解決方案，使我們能夠以具有競爭力的成本有效地脫碳。我們的 DRI/EAF 項目正在取得進展。我們目前正在將這些項目從預 FEED 階段轉移到 FEED 階段，其中包括訂購長交貨時間設備。

Our smart carbon technologies are also progressing, and we're strengthening our vertical integration of lower carbon supply chains by securing and developing some of the resources that we will require to decarbonize. From a commercial standpoint, our products and solutions are creating traction in the marketplace. We were the first to market with our ex car brand of lower emission steel solutions and customer interest continues to be very encouraging. This is reflected in the recent announcement that we will be supplying General Motors with our ex-carb RRP product.

我們的智能碳技術也在不斷進步，我們正在通過獲取和開發脫碳所需的一些資源來加強低碳供應鏈的垂直整合。從商業角度來看，我們的產品和解決方案正在市場上產生吸引力。我們是第一個向市場推出低排放鋼解決方案的前汽車品牌的公司，客戶的興趣仍然非常令人鼓舞。這反映在我們最近宣布將向通用汽車供應我們的前碳水化合物 RRP 產品中。

On growth, our unique asset portfolio positions us very well to benefit from growth in demand for steel. This demand growth will be driven by megatrends such as renewable energy transition, new mobility systems in developed economies, while in less mature markets, high demand for steel will be driven by population growth and the desire to improve living standards. We will continue to invest in the very best opportunities to capture and benefit from this growth. The investments we have made in recent periods are contributing over and above our expectations. Our hot strip mill in Mexico is delivering enhanced margins. Our newly acquired asset in Brazil is performing well and the team there has identified synergies more than double the initial estimate. Our HBI asset in Texas achieved record performance in the first half, producing 1 million tonnes of high-quality HBI in line with its nameplate capacity.

在增長方面，我們獨特的資產組合使我們能夠很好地從鋼鐵需求的增長中受益。這種需求增長將由發達經濟體的可再生能源轉型、新型移動系統等大趨勢推動，而在不太成熟的市場中，人口增長和提高生活水平的願望將推動對鋼鐵的高需求。我們將繼續投資於抓住這種增長並從中受益的最佳機會。我們最近一段時間的投資貢獻超出了我們的預期。我們位於墨西哥的熱帶鋼廠正在提高利潤。我們在巴西新收購的資產表現良好，那裡的團隊發現協同效應是最初估計的兩倍以上。我們位於德克薩斯州的 HBI 資產上半年取得了創紀錄的業績，按照其銘牌產能生產了 100 萬噸優質 HBI。

We are progressing our strong pipeline of high-return strategic CapEx projects. This includes our iron ore project in Liberia, which has been redesigned to maximize the potential of our Tier 1 resource. With a greater understanding of the ore body, we are now working on the feasibility of producing DRI quality concentrate and the potential to take capacity to 30 million tonnes per annum. Nevertheless, the CapEx for the 15 million tonne concentrator has increased, reflecting the redesign of plant and associated equipment, but with our expectation that this will generate $350 million of EBITDA at conservative long run prices, this remains a very strong project.

我們正在推進我們強大的高回報戰略資本支出項目。這包括我們在利比里亞的鐵礦石項目，該項目已經過重新設計，以最大限度地發揮我們一級資源的潛力。隨著對礦體有了更深入的了解，我們現在正在研究生產 DRI 優質精礦的可行性以及年產能 3000 萬噸的潛力。儘管如此，1500萬噸選礦廠的資本支出有所增加，反映出工廠和相關設備的重新設計，但我們預計這將在保守的長期價格下產生3.5億美元的EBITDA，這仍然是一個非常強大的項目。

In terms of the near-term outlook, inventories in the system remained low, and this provides support demand. Trends in automotive contrast with those of the construction markets, and we expect apparent demand for flat steel in Europe and North America to be higher this year than in 2022. We're well placed to generate good levels of free cash to continue progressing our decarbonization and growth agendas and our capital returns program.

就近期前景而言，系統庫存仍處於低位，這為需求提供了支撐。汽車行業的趨勢與建築市場的趨勢形成鮮明對比，我們預計今年歐洲和北美對扁鋼的明顯需求將高於 2022 年。我們完全有能力產生大量的自由現金，以繼續推進脫碳進程增長議程以及我們的資本回報計劃。

Now I'll ask Genuino to provide some more detail on our financial performance.

現在我將請 Genuino 提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細信息。

Thank you, Aditya.There is much to be pleased about our performance in the first half of 2023. We generated $4.4 billion of EBITDA. This is $155 of EBITDA per tonne shipped, which is the highest it has been in any 6-month period over the past 11 years by the exceptional 18-month period from 2021 to the midpoint of 2022. This highlights the inherent strength we have built into our business in recent years, the quality of our asset base and the value we are deriving from our recent acquisitions and strategic growth projects.

謝謝 Aditya。我們 2023 年上半年的表現非常令人高興。我們產生了 44 億美元的 EBITDA。每噸運輸的 EBITDA 為 155 美元，是過去 11 年來任何 6 個月期間的最高水平，從 2021 年到 2022 年中這一特殊的 18 個月期間。這凸顯了我們建立的內在實力我們近年來的業務、資產基礎的質量以及我們從最近的收購和戰略增長項目中獲得的價值。

But we must look further down the P&L to really appreciate the full impact of all the actions we have taken. Net income in the first half was $3 billion. This is double the average of the last 11 years, 2012 to 2022. What are the key drivers of this change? It is our portfolio improvement. It is the growing contribution from our JVs. It is the impact of our lower cost balance sheet. And then these impacts are being geared further by our consistent share buybacks. The value we are creating is clear. We are consistently delivering a solid return on our book value, which has grown to $66 per share.

但我們必須進一步審視損益表，才能真正了解我們所採取的所有行動的全面影響。上半年淨利潤為30億美元。這是過去 11 年（2012 年至 2022 年）平均水平的兩倍。這一變化的主要驅動因素是什麼？這是我們的投資組合的改進。這是我們合資企業不斷增長的貢獻。這是我們較低成本資產負債表的影響。然後，我們持續的股票回購進一步加劇了這些影響。我們正在創造的價值是明確的。我們始終如一地實現穩健的賬面價值回報，賬面價值已增至每股 66 美元。

I believe our performance provides evidence that ArcelorMittal can deliver value through all aspects of the steel cycle. We are consistently generating good levels of cash flow. And to echo Aditya's point, we are growing and developing our earnings potential by investing in the most attractive growth opportunities that exist in our business. We continue to provide attractive levels of returns to our shareholders through our share buyback programs. And this is underpinned by a foundation of a strong investment-grade balance sheet.

我相信我們的業績證明安賽樂米塔爾可以通過鋼鐵循環的各個方面創造價值。我們始終保持良好的現金流水平。為了呼應 Aditya 的觀點，我們正在通過投資於我們業務中最具吸引力的增長機會來增長和開發我們的盈利潛力。我們繼續通過股票回購計劃為股東提供有吸引力的回報水平。這是以強大的投資級資產負債表為基礎的。

With that, we are ready to take your questions.

這樣，我們就準備好回答您的問題了。

Great. Thank you, Genuino. Thank you, Aditya. So we have a queue of questions already, and we will take the first question from Alain at Morgan Stanley.

偉大的。謝謝你，傑努伊諾。謝謝你，阿迪亞。我們已經有一列問題了，我們將回答摩根士丹利的阿蘭提出的第一個問題。

Moving parts that we need to think about with respect to Q3 EBITDA. I guess some of your peers have been referring to a more pronounced seasonality in Europe during Q3. Do you share this view? And what does that mean for your shipments? That's the first question.

我們需要考慮第三季度 EBITDA 的變化部分。我想你們的一些同行一直在提到第三季度歐洲的季節性更為明顯。你同意這個觀點嗎？這對您的發貨意味著什麼？這是第一個問題。

Let me take your question. Look, I think to me, the best way to talk about this point is by referring to our order book. In Europe, when I look at the order book for quarter 3, we are full. So we are now taking orders really for October. So our base case is that not only Q3, but talk a little bit about the second half, given that we don't expect, of course, the repeat of the severe this stock that we face in the second half of 2022. Our base case is that we're going to see a better second half in this year compared to 2022.

讓我回答你的問題。聽著，我認為，談論這一點的最佳方式是參考我們的訂單簿。在歐洲，當我查看第三季度的訂單簿時，我們已經滿了。所以我們現在正在接受十月份的訂單。因此，我們的基本情況是，不僅是第三季度，而且還討論一下下半年，因為我們當然預計我們在 2022 年下半年所面臨的嚴重這隻股票不會重演。我們的基礎情況是，與 2022 年相比，我們今年下半年的情況將會更好。

And my second question is on CSP in Brazil. Clearly, the asset has been generating an EBITDA run rate of more than double what you have guided for at acquisition although the spread environment in Brazil appears to be quite ordinary. I think Aditya's comments, the intro on synergies suggests that your numbers were somewhat too conservative to start with. So where do you see the real EBITDA run rate going forward of this asset?

我的第二個問題是關於巴西的光熱發電。顯然，儘管巴西的利差環境似乎相當普通，但該資產產生的 EBITDA 運行率是您收購時指導的兩倍多。我認為 Aditya 的評論以及關於協同效應的介紹表明，您的數字一開始就有些過於保守。那麼，您如何看待該資產未來的實際 EBITDA 運行率？

It's a great question. And I think it's safe to assume that it's been a great acquisition. We have inherited a great set of people with excellent assets. The synergies, as you mentioned, are double, I would, at this point in time, add that to the EBITDA level that we have guided to and used that as a base. The company is also helping us improve our overall performance in Brazil. So the synergies are 2 ways. So some of the synergies are also in Tubarao. Another key part of this acquisition has also been some of the fiscal incentives. And then therefore, overall, this has been a good strategy for us to enhance the leadership position that we have in Brazil and also invest in really high-quality assets and people.

這是一個很好的問題。我認為可以肯定地說這是一次偉大的收購。我們繼承了一批優秀人才，擁有優良資產。正如您所提到的，協同效應是雙重的，我會在此時將其添加到我們指導並以此為基礎的 EBITDA 水平中。該公司還幫助我們提高在巴西的整體業績。所以協同作用有兩種方式。因此，一些協同效應也體現在 Tubarao 中。此次收購的另一個關鍵部分也是一些財政激勵措施。因此，總的來說，這對我們來說是一個很好的戰略，可以增強我們在巴西的領導地位，並投資於真正優質的資產和人員。

And then so we'll move now to the next question, which I believe is from Patrick at Bank of America.

然後我們現在進入下一個問題，我相信這個問題來自美國銀行的帕特里克。

Just on the decarbonization and the kind of approvals of the government subsidies or support. How should we think about the timing of these projects now? I know you said you're doing the FEED work and starting to order the long lead items. But when should we expect kind of ground to be broken in these projects to really kick off?

只是關於脫碳以及政府補貼或支持的批准情況。現在我們應該如何考慮這些項目的時機？我知道你說過你正在做飼料工作並開始訂購長交貨期的物品。但我們應該期望這些項目什麼時候才能真正啟動呢？

Sure. So it's been a busy quarter in terms of our decarb projects in Europe. I think as all of you know, and as I mentioned in my remarks, we've got funding support from Spain, from Belgium from France. We are in discussions with these governments on ensuring that the energy complex is competitive. What does that mean? That means the hydrogen supply available and at the right price and the same for renewable energy I expect that those discussions will be constructive and we will arrive at the right conclusion. So we're going through the details of all of that. Simultaneously, we're not delaying. So we're moving from pre-FEED to FEED stage, which means that we would have 90% certainty on cost, we do detailed engineering and also ordering long lead items.

當然。因此，就我們在歐洲的脫碳項目而言，這是一個繁忙的季度。我想你們都知道，正如我在發言中提到的，我們得到了西班牙、比利時和法國的資金支持。我們正在與這些政府討論確保能源綜合體具有競爭力。這意味著什麼？這意味著氫氣供應可用且價格合適，可再生能源也是如此，我希望這些討論將具有建設性，我們將得出正確的結論。所以我們正在研究所有這些細節。同時，我們不會拖延。因此，我們正在從預 FEED 階段轉向 FEED 階段，這意味著我們對成本有 90% 的確定性，我們進行詳細的工程設計並訂購長交貨期的產品。

If you look at the overall time scale of these decarb projects, we had applied for approval 2 years late. So we are getting approval from these various governments 2 years after. So it's safe to say that we're already 2 years delayed in terms of implementation of these projects. clearly, in those 2 years, we've done some work. It's not that we've done nothing, i.e., we move from pre-FEED to FEED, but there is an implied delay. Normally, CapEx of this magnitude takes roughly 3 to 4 years. So you should factor that in as you see us moving from pre-FEED to FEED as these projects would be on the marketplace fully commissioned 3 to 4 years from now. We will obviously keep you updated as we finalize the FEED work, the actual time schedule as well as where we ended up with these respective covenants.

如果你看一下這些脫碳項目的總體時間尺度，我們的申請批准晚了兩年。因此，兩年後我們得到了這些政府的批准。因此可以肯定地說，我們這些項目的實施已經推遲了兩年。顯然，在這兩年裡，我們做了一些工作。這並不是說我們什麼也沒做，即我們從 pre-FEED 轉移到 FEED，但存在隱含的延遲。通常，這種規模的資本支出大約需要 3 到 4 年。因此，當您看到我們從 pre-FEED 轉向 FEED 時，您應該考慮到這一點，因為這些項目將在 3 到 4 年後全面投入市場。當我們最終確定 FEED 工作、實際時間表以及我們最終達成的這些各自的契約時，我們顯然會及時向您通報最新情況。

And if I could maybe have one follow-up. Just you spoke a little bit about how you have a global footprint and I suppose, access to different energy markets. And if I think about the other partner in the HBI plant are intending to start their decarbonization journey by using HBI from Texas, and you obviously now have slabs in Brazil. We've seen interest in German production facilities where, again, it looked as though the partner wanted -- the potential partner wanted to ship slabs there to be rerolled. How do you balance up kind of making green iron in Europe where energy prices are very high versus, I suppose, leveraging your global footprint where perhaps you've got access to lower energy costs and maybe getting green iron and shipping either green iron or slabs to Europe and not doing the actual iron making in Europe? How do you balance those 2 things? It must be quite difficult.

如果我可以跟進一下的話。剛才您談到了您如何擁有全球足跡，我想是進入不同能源市場的機會。如果我想到 HBI 工廠的其他合作夥伴打算通過使用德克薩斯州的 HBI 來開始他們的脫碳之旅，那麼顯然現在巴西有板坯。我們看到了對德國生產設施的興趣，看起來合作夥伴似乎也想要——潛在的合作夥伴希望將板坯運送到那裡進行重新軋製。我想，你如何平衡在能源價格非常高的歐洲生產綠鐵與利用你的全球足跡，也許你可以獲得較低的能源成本，也許可以獲得綠鐵並運輸綠鐵或板坯到歐洲而不是在歐洲進行實際的煉鐵？你如何平衡這兩件事？這一定是相當困難的。

So Patrick, first of all, thank you for the question because you're highlighting the strength of ArcelorMittal. That's exactly our strength. We can bring in slabs from Brazil. We can bring HBI from Texas, as I mentioned, it's hitting record production. So the plant is running normally now doing really well. So we have all of these opportunities. We also have a mini mill, it's not like we don't. We have a -- it's not a large mini mill, but it's a 1.2 million tonne EAF facility in Sestao, Spain. So we have a lot of these capabilities, and that's why we can move quickly to the market, and we can commercialize our products, which we're doing both in Europe and in NAFTA. But in terms of how do we judge it. So we are looking at it holistically.

帕特里克，首先感謝您提出這個問題，因為您強調了安賽樂米塔爾的實力。這正是我們的優勢。我們可以從巴西進口板材。正如我提到的，我們可以從德克薩斯州帶來 HBI，它的產量正在創下歷史新高。所以該工廠目前運行正常，狀況良好。所以我們擁有所有這些機會。我們也有一個小型工廠，我們也不是沒有。我們有一個——它不是一個大型的小型鋼廠，但它是一個位於西班牙塞斯塔奧的 120 萬噸 EAF 設施。所以我們擁有很多這樣的能力，這就是為什麼我們可以快速進入市場，並且我們可以將我們的產品商業化，這是我們在歐洲和北美自由貿易協定中所做的。但就我們如何判斷而言。所以我們從整體上看待它。

We are looking at, okay, what is the net capital cost included the total cost of making these products in some of our facilities versus bringing in some of these products from outside. And on that basis, which where we find competitive which we find as the most competitive. Those are the projects which we'll see the light at the end of the day. And so that's how we're thinking about it. So we're not looking at our advantages in isolation. It's absolutely part of the mix. It makes it more challenging. It more difficult because it's not easy to predict markets. Markets are volatile, prices are volatile. But at least it provides us with certain boxes in which we operate to ensure that we have the most competitive CapEx and the most competitive OpEx to deliver low cost from a carbon perspective. but high-quality steel to our customers.

我們正在考慮，淨資本成本是多少，包括在我們的一些設施中製造這些產品的總成本與從外部引進其中一些產品的總成本。在此基礎上，我們發現哪些地方具有競爭力，哪些地方最具競爭力。這些是我們最終會看到曙光的項目。這就是我們的想法。因此，我們並不是孤立地看待我們的優勢。它絕對是混合的一部分。這使它更具挑戰性。這更困難，因為預測市場並不容易。市場波動，價格波動。但至少它為我們提供了一定的運營空間，以確保我們擁有最具競爭力的資本支出和最具競爭力的運營支出，從碳的角度實現低成本。而是為我們的客戶提供優質鋼材。

So we'll move now to next question from Ephrem at Citi.

現在我們將轉向花旗 Ephrem 提出的下一個問題。

Two questions. Firstly, the CapEx guidance for both the Brazilian long products plant and Liberia has been increasing. I understand there's some reshuffling of scope, but is -- are you also seeing general kind of cost inflation in projects affecting the CapEx guidance? And also a subquestion on Liberia. You always kind of mentioned an optionality to 30 million tonnes. What's changed in the scoping of the project this time around to kind of enable that 30 million tonnes to happen? And the second question, in the slide deck, it was good to see a slide on direct electrolysis for the first time, I think, in terms of a date of the first 40,000 to 80,000 tonnes of plates by 2027. You always talked about direct roses more like a 20, 40-ish type of decarbonization path. Does it mean that, that is possibly going to be brought forward?

兩個問題。首先，巴西長材工廠和利比里亞的資本支出指導一直在增加。我知道範圍有所調整，但您是否也看到影響資本支出指導的項目中普遍存在的成本通脹？還有一個關於利比里亞的子問題。您總是提到 3000 萬噸的選擇。這次項目的範圍發生了哪些變化才能實現 3000 萬噸？第二個問題，在幻燈片中，很高興第一次看到直接電解的幻燈片，我認為，就 2027 年第一批 40,000 至 80,000 噸板材的日期而言。您總是談論直接電解玫瑰更像是一條 20、40 左右類型的脫碳路徑。這是否意味著，這可能會提前？

Okay. Great. A lot of questions. I will go through them point by point. Look, Monlevade and Liberia are unique. So I would not use them as examples of what's happening in the rest of ArcelorMittal. So why are they unique? They are unique because both the projects were stopped for different reasons, but both projects were stopped and have restarted. And as these projects have been restarted, I'll talk about them specifically now, for example, to your question in Liberia, we have had the chance to reexamine the grade literally the ore body as well as what we want to do in terms of the future. And we've become very focused that we want more DR concentrate qualities. And therefore, we have actually changed how we want to grind the ore so that we can produce even higher quality steels.

好的。偉大的。很多問題。我將逐點介紹它們。看，蒙勒瓦德和利比里亞是獨一無二的。因此，我不會用它們作為安賽樂米塔爾其他部門正在發生的事情的例子。那麼為什麼它們是獨一無二的呢？它們是獨一無二的，因為這兩個項目都因不同的原因而停止，但兩個項目都被停止並重新啟動。隨著這些項目已經重新啟動，我現在將具體談論它們，例如，對於你在利比里亞提出的問題，我們有機會重新審查礦體的品位以及我們想要做的事情未來。我們變得非常專注，我們想要更多的 DR 濃縮品質。因此，我們實際上改變了研磨礦石的方式，以便生產出更高質量的鋼材。

And that has required investment in the equipment, civil works as well, backup infrastructure as well as the backup power plant, and so the cost is escalated. So the majority of the cost increase in Liberia is because of that. And obviously, as the project has been delayed, there is an element of inflation. In terms of Monlevade, the project was stopped in '20. We were thinking about this project almost 12 years ago. So a long time ago, it was stopped ordered equipment a long time ago. And as we have restarted the project, we have spent more money on automation. We have done a lot more engineered -- engineering, civil works and then that explains half of the cost increase and the other half obviously is inflation. So I will not use that as examples. Clearly, what has happened in terms of inflation and scope increases is not good news.

這需要對設備、土建工程、備用基礎設施以及備用發電廠進行投資，因此成本不斷上升。因此，利比里亞的大部分成本增加都是因為這個。顯然，由於該項目被推遲，存在通貨膨脹的因素。就 Monlevade 而言，該項目於 20 世紀停止。大約 12 年前我們就在考慮這個項目。所以很早以前就停止訂購設備了。隨著我們重新啟動該項目，我們在自動化方面投入了更多資金。我們做了更多的工程——工程、土木工程，這解釋了成本增加的一半，而另一半顯然是通貨膨脹。所以我不會用它作為例子。顯然，通貨膨脹和範圍擴大所發生的事情並不是好消息。

And Liberia is still okay because -- or relatively okay because we have an increasing level of EBITDA from the project. But overall, these are not good developments. And obviously, as a company, we've been very focused to minimize the cost and make sure that these projects remain cost competitive and meet our return thresholds, and they do. In Monlevade, apart from the facility being franchised using our own iron ore to expand, we also got an increased level of fiscal incentive. So it compensates some of these cost increases. But again, I don't want to provide any excuses for that. In terms of the CapEx overrun, it's, therefore, restricted to this.

利比里亞仍然不錯，因為——或者說相對還不錯，因為我們的項目 EBITDA 水平不斷提高。但總體而言，這些都不是好的發展。顯然，作為一家公司，我們一直非常注重最大限度地降低成本，並確保這些項目保持成本競爭力並滿足我們的回報門檻，他們確實做到了。在蒙勒瓦德，除了利用我們自己的鐵礦石進行特許經營的設施進行擴建外，我們還獲得了更高水平的財政激勵。因此它補償了部分成本的增加。但同樣，我不想為此提供任何藉口。因此，就資本支出超支而言，僅限於此。

Overall, the other projects are proceeding well. For example, there's a nice slide in our deck where we have 3 other projects in Brazil. One is in Vega, the other in Barra Mansa, the third in Serra Azul. All of them are on schedule, all of them are on track. So I would encourage you to think of these as isolated issues. In terms of direct electrolysis, look, we're starting the pilot sell now. If we pass through all the stages then obviously, we would have the ability to produce 40,000 to 50,000 tonnes of plate direct electrolysis plate steel. I think I would still suggest that this is on the experimental stages, but clearly, we're making progress.

總體而言，其他項目進展順利。例如，我們的幻燈片中有一張漂亮的幻燈片，其中我們還有巴西的其他 3 個項目。一處位於維加，另一處位於巴拉曼薩，第三處位於塞拉阿祖爾。一切都在按計劃進行，一切都在正軌上。因此，我鼓勵您將這些視為孤立的問題。就直接電解而言，你看，我們現在開始試點銷售。如果我們通過所有階段，那麼顯然我們將有能力生產40,000至50,000噸的直接電解板鋼。我想我仍然建議這處於實驗階段，但顯然我們正在取得進展。

When we think of decarb as an organization, we have 3 avenues. One obviously is the DRI-EAF stage. We spoke about that. But we're also focused and are developing capability on the Smart Carbon route. The Smart Carbon route is basically capturing the carbon or reducing the carbon from integrated route and storing it or sequestering it or converting it into something else. And we're also making progress on the smart carbon route. And the third is what you highlighted, which is the direct electrolysis route. So I hope I tried to answer all of your questions. Let me know if you need any further clarifications.

當我們將 decarb 視為一個組織時，我們有 3 個途徑。其中之一顯然是 DRI-EAF 階段。我們談到了這一點。但我們也關注並正在開發智能碳路線的能力。智能碳路線基本上是捕獲碳或從綜合路線中減少碳並將其儲存或封存或將其轉化為其他東西。我們在智能碳路線上也取得了進展。第三種是您強調的，即直接電解路線。所以我希望我盡力回答你們所有的問題。如果您需要任何進一步的說明，請告訴我。

So we'll now move to next question from Tristan at Exane BNP.

現在我們將轉向 Exane BNP 的 Tristan 提出的下一個問題。

First one is on volume. In the past quarter, you guided for steel shipments to increase by 5% this year ex CSP in Ukraine. And you've got now your demand outlook for the years, and you've seen also some operational disruption in Europe. So do you expect to be able to grow group volumes organically this year? And if you could give us maybe some color by division and more, let's say, near term into Q3 more specific to ACIS, Europe, maybe mining volumes. Do you expect a sequential pickup there? That's my first question.

第一個是音量。在上個季度，您預計今年鋼鐵出貨量將增長 5%（不包括烏克蘭的 CSP）。現在您已經了解了多年來的需求前景，並且您還看到了歐洲的一些運營中斷。那麼您預計今年集團銷量能夠有機增長嗎？如果您能給我們一些按部門劃分的顏色以及更多信息，比如說，近期進入第三季度，更具體地針對 ACIS、歐洲，也許還有採礦量。您預計那裡會有順序接載嗎？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes, Tristan, let me take this one. Yes. So Tristan, we are not retaining the previous guidance of increasing shipments by 5% organically. The reason being that we did face some delays in bringing back the 2 finances in Europe. As you know, our initial expectation was to be able to do that by the mid June. And so we have delays there. So the finances are back now, but we only recently restarted them. And then, of course, we are also training our presentations to consumption forecast for the year, as we highlighted in our presentation. Nevertheless, we still expect to be at least flat on an organic basis. And then once you have CSP percent, then I think it's fair to say that we would still expect to be at least 5% above.

是的，特里斯坦，讓我拿這個。是的。因此，特里斯坦，我們不會保留之前將出貨量有機增加 5% 的指導。原因是我們在歐洲恢復兩項財務方面確實遇到了一些延誤。如您所知，我們最初的期望是能夠在六月中旬之前做到這一點。所以我們在那裡遇到了延誤。所以現在財務狀況已經恢復，但我們最近才重新啟動。當然，正如我們在演示中強調的那樣，我們也在對今年的消費預測進行演示。儘管如此，我們仍然預計至少在有機基礎上將持平。一旦你有了 CSP 百分比，那麼我認為可以公平地說，我們仍然期望至少高於 5%。

Looking at the trends for quarter 3 by region, I think the trends that we are seeing are quite similar. So we do expect to see shipments to be relatively stable across the divisions. We will see, of course, the normal seasonality in Europe. But I would just caution that, of course, our shipments in Q2 were lower because we were at constraint in terms of capacity. So you have to take that into account. So our volumes relatively stable I think we have a chance to do a little bit better in CIS, we will see. And then in mining, we should be doing better in terms of volumes. So we did face some unplanned maintenance in Mine Canada and also a strike in Liberia that I would not expect to repeat. So we should be doing better there. So that's in a nutshell how we are seeing shipments, Tristan.

按地區查看第三季度的趨勢，我認為我們看到的趨勢非常相似。因此，我們確實預計各部門的出貨量將相對穩定。當然，我們會看到歐洲的正常季節性。但我想提醒的是，當然，我們第二季度的出貨量較低，因為我們的產能受到限制。所以你必須考慮到這一點。因此，我們的銷量相對穩定，我認為我們有機會在獨聯體國家做得更好一點，我們拭目以待。然後在採礦方面，我們應該在產量方面做得更好。因此，我們確實在加拿大礦山面臨一些計劃外的維護，並且在利比里亞也遇到了罷工，我預計不會再發生這種情況。所以我們應該在那裡做得更好。簡而言之，這就是我們對出貨量的看法，特里斯坦。

Okay. That's very clear and helpful. My second question is on public funding. I mean you managed to unlock significant public funding over recent months, and this is really positive. But it seems those grants have some clawbacks attached to it if the project generates extra net revenues. Can you please explain how they work? And also one of your peer in Germany managed to unlock some OpEx subsidy as well, which I believe is the conditional payment mechanism. Are you also looking into this type of support? And do you believe there are good chances also to get this kind of OpEx subsidy outside Germany?

好的。這非常清楚且有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於公共資金。我的意思是，最近幾個月你們成功地釋放了大量公共資金，這確實是積極的。但如果該項目產生額外的淨收入，這些贈款似乎會附帶一些回扣。您能解釋一下它們是如何工作的嗎？而且你在德國的一位同行也設法解鎖了一些運營支出補貼，我認為這是有條件的支付機制。您也在尋找這種類型的支持嗎？您是否認為在德國以外也有很好的機會獲得這種運營支出補貼？

Yes, Look, thank you for the question. I think it's very important. I think the headline from our side is that the approvals that we have received from both Spain, France and Belgium more comparable. And what are we asking? We're asking for half CapEx support, 50% of the investment -- capital investment to be supported by these governments in terms of grants, and that's really what we have seen. The headline number, I know in Belgium is not the same, but there are other things that make the project equally attractive. In terms of OpEx support, we're not asking for OpEx support. So what we have seen perhaps others do is different than what we're asking.

是的，看，謝謝你的提問。我認為這非常重要。我認為我們方面的主要內容是，我們從西班牙、法國和比利時獲得的批准更具可比性。我們在問什麼？我們要求一半的資本支出支持，50% 的投資——資本投資將由這些政府以贈款形式支持，這確實是我們所看到的。據我所知，比利時的標題數字並不相同，但還有其他因素使該項目同樣具有吸引力。就運營支出支持而言，我們並不要求運營支出支持。因此，我們所看到的其他人所做的也許與我們所要求的不同。

We are focused on CapEx support we think that makes the most sense for us, and that has been the dialogue. Simultaneously, we are in discussions with these governments as I mentioned in my previous answer to ensure that there is a competitive, reliable energy source, and that includes both hydrogen as well as renewable energy. You know we went through energy prices in Europe prices were high, prices were volatile, and we need to get some stability and some visibility on that. I would -- I also added to say that -- I'd already mentioned that these discussions are going well. And I expect maybe not in all jurisdictions, but at least in some of these jurisdictions that we will come to the right conclusion and move forward.

我們專注於資本支出支持，我​​們認為這對我們來說最有意義，這就是對話。與此同時，正如我在之前的回答中提到的，我們正在與這些政府進行討論，以確保有具有競爭力的、可靠的能源，其中包括氫和可再生能源。你知道，我們經歷了歐洲能源價格的高位和波動，我們需要對此保持一定的穩定性和可見性。我想——我還補充說——我已經提到這些討論進展順利。我預計，也許不是在所有司法管轄區，但至少在其中一些司法管轄區，我們將得出正確的結論並繼續前進。

So we'll move now to the next question from Andrew at UBS.

我們現在轉向瑞銀安德魯提出的下一個問題。

Just wanted to follow up on a couple of things. First of all, just on the CapEx. In light of the strategic CapEx hike and I guess we've seen decent size inflation on some of your rival peers in Europe on their sort of green steel projects. I'm wondering how you sort of still feel about that $10 billion original gross CapEx number is for risk on that. And over the next few years, what's the likely trend given obviously you're still doing some engineering studies and so forth.

只是想跟進幾件事。首先，就資本支出而言。鑑於戰略性資本支出上漲，我想我們已經看到歐洲一些競爭對手的綠色鋼鐵項目出現了相當規模的通貨膨脹。我想知道您對 100 億美元的原始資本支出總額與風險有何看法。在接下來的幾年中，顯然您仍在進行一些工程研究等，可能的趨勢是什麼。

I mean how do we see the CapEx overall for group being phased in 2024, '25 and beyond? And just to follow up on Alain's question earlier, he was asking about like the third quarter dynamics, I guess, by division. Can you just give us a bit more of a steer on where you're likely to see the most earnings pressure relative sort of movements in pricing and costs? You've given us some details on volumes already, but can you just spell that out by division and scale?

我的意思是，我們如何看待集團在 2024 年、25 年及以後分階段的總體資本支出？為了跟進阿蘭早些時候的問題，他問的是第三季度的動態，我想是按部門劃分的。您能否給我們更多的指導，告訴我們在哪些方面您可能會看到最大的盈利壓力（相對於定價和成本的變動）？您已經向我們提供了有關卷的一些詳細信息，但是您能否通過劃分和比例來說明這一點？

Yes, sure. I'll take the first part of your question and then get Genuino to answer the second part. In terms of overall CapEx, let me just start with the strategic CapEx, just to underline that so that we're all on the same page. As you heard earlier, we talked about Monlevade and the Liberia project, which due to scope changes and other improvements and inflation has increased. But both these projects are also delayed. So the overall impact on an annual basis is not changing. So the guidance we provide on strategic CapEx per year continues. So there is no increase in '24, '25 due to Brazil or due to -- i.e. due to Monlevade or due to Liberia.

是的，當然。我將回答你問題的第一部分，然後讓 Genuino 回答第二部分。就整體資本支出而言，讓我從戰略資本支出開始，只是為了強調這一點，以便我們達成共識。正如您之前所聽到的，我們談到了 Monlevade 和利比里亞項目，由於範圍變化和其他改進，通貨膨脹有所增加。但這兩個項目也都被推遲了。因此，每年的總體影響沒有變化。因此，我們每年提供的戰略資本支出指導仍在繼續。因此，“24”、“25”沒有因巴西或由於——即由於蒙勒瓦德或利比里亞而增加。

In terms of the decarb envelope, the $10 billion that you referred to, the target of that capital investment is to reduce our global carbon emissions by 25%. And that remains the focus. Yes, I agree with you. There has been inflation and we see some of that inflation as well. But we are very focused on a few things as we think about our plan to reduce our carbon footprint by 25%. Can we repurpose or rescope, right, some of this? And I think there was an earlier question very kindly talking about ArcelorMittal's strength in terms of decarb, right, energy, slabs, HBI in Texas. So can we use some of our assets that we already have to achieve the same goals.

就脫碳承諾而言，您提到的 100 億美元資本投資的目標是減少 25% 的全球碳排放。這仍然是焦點。是的，我同意你的看法。通貨膨脹已經存在，我們也看到了一些通貨膨脹。但在考慮將碳足跡減少 25% 的計劃時，我們非常關註一些事情。我們可以重新調整其中一些用途或範圍嗎？我認為之前有一個問題非常友善地談論了安賽樂米塔爾在德克薩斯州的脫碳、權利、能源、板坯、HBI 方面的實力。那麼我們是否可以利用我們已有的一些資產來實現相同的目標。

Obviously, we're very focused on value engineering. What can we do, knowing that all of these things are costing more, how can we value engineer to make sure that the cost increase is not that significant. We talked about technology development earlier on. Are there new technologies, capabilities that we can develop. So the focus remains to achieve the 25% reduction in carbon emissions with the $10 billion of capital. And that is what we are working towards. Genuino?

顯然，我們非常關注價值工程。我們能做什麼，知道所有這些事情的成本都在增加，我們如何評估工程師以確保成本增加不那麼顯著。前面我們談到了技術發展。我們可以開發新技術、新能力嗎？因此，重點仍然是用100億美元的資金實現碳排放減少25%。這就是我們正在努力的方向。傑努伊諾？

Genuino, just on the third quarter dynamics?

Genuino，只是關於第三季度的動態嗎？

Yes. So on that, Andrew, so we talked about volumes, right, by region. And again, here in terms of spreads, prices, we see the same dynamics across our business as well. As we know, prices and spreads have moderated during the second quarter. So that will impact our results in Q3. Prices have declined and so that will have an impact. But at the same time, costs have come down. I mean we saw a nice reduction in terms of coking coal prices, I don't know, also moderating to some extent so that will provide some relief. But overall, as we know, spreads have moderated. Then in Europe, because of the production limitations that we face, and as we bring back this finance, I would expect our fixed cost position to be slightly better also in the second quarter -- third quarter, sorry.

是的。安德魯，就此而言，我們討論了按地區劃分的數量。再說一次，就價差和價格而言，我們在整個業務中也看到了同樣的動態。據我們所知，第二季度價格和利差有所放緩。這將影響我們第三季度的業績。價格已經下降，因此將會產生影響。但與此同時，成本也有所下降。我的意思是，我不知道，我們看到焦煤價格大幅下降，也在一定程度上有所放緩，這將帶來一些緩解。但總體而言，正如我們所知，利差已經放緩。然後在歐洲，由於我們面臨的生產限制，當我們收回這筆資金時，我預計我們的固定成本狀況在第二季度 - 第三季度也會稍微好一些，抱歉。

So we'll move now to the next question from Phil at KeyBanc.

現在我們將討論 KeyBanc 的 Phil 提出的下一個問題。

First question is just on the Mexico hot strip mill project and how that's progressed and whether or not you reached critical mass in terms of your output?

第一個問題是關於墨西哥熱軋帶鋼項目以及該項目的進展情況以及你們的產量是否達到了臨界質量？

It's a great question Phil. So the Mexico hot strip mill has surpassed our expectations in terms of its overall profitability and how it's catering into the marketplace. In terms of critical mass, the equipment is capable. But at this point in time, some of the slabs, we are we are increasing the level of production of slabs that we can make in Mexico so that we can cater to that hot strip mill. So the bottleneck has shifted from the hot strip mill to actual slab production, which is where it should be.

這是一個很好的問題，菲爾。因此，墨西哥熱帶鋼廠的整體盈利能力以及迎合市場的方式超出了我們的預期。就臨界質量而言，該設備是有能力的。但目前，我們正在提高在墨西哥生產的一些板坯的生產水平，以便我們能夠滿足熱軋帶鋼軋機的需求。因此，瓶頸已經從熱帶鋼軋機轉移到實際的板坯生產上，這才是它應該出現的地方。

And as we make further progress on the upstream in Mexico, we will be increasing the production in the hot strip mills. Some of the slabs, as you know, are also going into Calvert. And so not all of the capacity is available for this hot strip mill. So we were positively surprised by its ramp-up, by its market acceptance, and that's why the bottleneck has shifted to the EAF facility there. So yes, so it's all good news in terms of the Mexican hot strip mill.

隨著我們在墨西哥上游取得進一步進展，我們將增加熱帶鋼廠的產量。如您所知，一些板坯也將進入卡爾弗特。因此，並非所有產能都可用於該熱帶鋼軋機。因此，我們對它的增長和市場接受程度感到非常驚訝，這就是為什麼瓶頸已經轉移到那裡的電弧爐設施。所以，是的，對於墨西哥熱軋帶鋼廠來說，這都是好消息。

And then just as a follow-up, as we look at Europe, do you have any annual or semi-annual contracts resetting in the second half of 2023 or any resets largely isolated to the -- even in '24?

然後，作為後續行動，當我們關注歐洲時，你們是否有在 2023 年下半年重置的年度或半年度合同，或者是否有任何很大程度上孤立於 24 年的重置？

So in Europe, the majority of our contracts, that we set at the beginning of the year. And we do -- we had some contracts of resetting at the beginning of the second quarter, and that's the large majority of our contracts in Europe. So not much we need to be to reset now in the second half.

因此，在歐洲，我們的大部分合同都是我們在年初制定的。我們確實在第二季度初重置了一些合同，這是我們在歐洲的大部分合同。因此，我們現在不需要在下半場進行太多重置。

So we'll move to the next question from Bastian at Deutsche Bank.

那麼我們將轉向德意志銀行巴斯蒂安提出的下一個問題。

I've got 2 left. And the first one is on AMNS India. And you did EBITDA per tonne of more than $330, which is pretty impressive to say at least given the current price environment. And I guess, when considering that the large exports have been coming over from your neighbor in China. So I was wondering whether you -- if you could just give us a quick update on the key trends which you're seeing in the third quarter here and also the second half and whether you expect to keep these run rates here in the short term? That is my first question.

我還剩2個第一個是 AMNS India。每噸 EBITDA 超過 330 美元，至少考慮到當前的價格環境，這是相當令人印象深刻的。我想，考慮到大量出口來自中國的鄰國。所以我想知道您是否可以向我們快速介紹一下您在第三季度和下半年看到的主要趨勢，以及您是否希望在短期內保持這些運行率？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. Great. Thank you for highlighting that. Look, AMNS is a success story. We have been able to ramp up production. We've been able to improve the quality. We had great customer acceptance of the value that we're bringing to the Indian marketplace.

是的。偉大的。感謝您強調這一點。看，AMNS 是一個成功的故事。我們已經能夠提高產量。我們已經能夠提高質量。我們為印度市場帶來的價值得到了客戶的高度認可。

And we've been frantically growing the business as well. So, this quarter, we will be inaugurating CGL 4, which is a continuous galvanizing line, which will allow us to produce (inaudible) product. Next year, we will be doing automotive. And as you know, we are in the midst of doubling that facility both upstream and downstream to produce 14 million tonnes of high-quality steel in a coastal site in the country. So overall, company does really well. In terms of its results, I would expect the results to remain elevated, most of this year.

我們也一直在瘋狂地發展業務。因此，本季度，我們將啟用 CGL 4，這是一條連續鍍鋅生產線，這將使我們能夠生產（聽不清）產品。明年，我們將做汽車行業。如您所知，我們正在將上游和下游設施加倍，以便在該國沿海地區生產 1,400 萬噸優質鋼材。所以總的來說，公司做得非常好。就其結果而言，我預計今年大部分時間其結果將保持較高水平。

We had benefits of really low gas pricing, the contracts we'd entered in 2020. And clearly, relative to the rest of the energy complex, these contracts are quite favorable to AMNS. And that has been supporting its profitability in the second quarter and will continue to support its profitability into the third quarter -- into the second half. I don't know, Genuino, would like to provide any more specifics on that.

我們在 2020 年簽訂的合同中受益於非常低的天然氣定價。顯然，相對於能源綜合體的其他部分，這些合同對 AMNS 相當有利。這一直支持其第二季度的盈利能力，並將繼續支持其第三季度乃至下半年的盈利能力。我不知道，Genuino，我想提供更多細節。

No, I think you touched on all the key points, Aditya. So I'll see if there is any follow-up from Bastian.

不，我認為你觸及了所有關鍵點，Aditya。所以我會看看巴斯蒂安是否有任何後續行動。

Just a quick follow-up on that one. Aditya maybe you highlighted gas. I guess, gas was always one of sectors when you basically bought the asset. I guess one of the key points was you wanted to renegotiate the gas contract. How does this work now? Is this like an annual price mechanism? Is it a floating prices? Is it a fixed price? How does it work for you?

只是對此進行快速跟進。 Aditya 也許你強調了天然氣。我想，當你基本上購買該資產時，天然氣始終是其中之一。我想關鍵點之一是你想重新談判天然氣合同。現在效果如何？這是像年度價格機制嗎？是浮動價格嗎？是固定價格嗎？它對你有什麼作用？

Yes. So we -- it's a combination of the above, but fundamentally, it's by market price gas. So there is no -- it's not dealing with a deal with the government or anything like that. So we are out there in the market. And in 2020, we signed roughly 3- to 5-year contracts. And those contracts were in place and so AMNS avoided the spike in energy, which has impacted, obviously, other gas-based producers around the world. but in has avoided it. So that's how I think about it. And clearly, some of this is a rolling hedge. And so as prices normalize, we will be extending the hedge. So the company is fundamentally still exposed to international gas markets. That has not changed. But clearly, we have longer duration and more fixed prices and more stable prices, which allows the business to develop and grow.

是的。所以我們——它是上述的組合，但從根本上來說，它是按市場價格天然氣計算的。所以沒有——這不是與政府達成協議或類似的事情。所以我們在市場上。 2020 年，我們簽署了大約 3 到 5 年的合同。這些合同已經到位，因此 AMNS 避免了能源飆升，這顯然已經影響了世界各地其他天然氣生產商。但已經避免了。這就是我的想法。顯然，其中一些是滾動對沖。因此，隨著價格正常化，我們將擴大對沖。因此，該公司從根本上仍然面臨著國際天然氣市場的風險。這一點沒有改變。但顯然，我們有更長的期限和更固定的價格以及更穩定的價格，這使得業務能夠發展和壯大。

Okay. That's very helpful. Then my second question is on Calvert and the EAF project, please. I remember that it was supposed to be on track in March and notice being delayed on reasonably short notice because, I guess, startup was planned for the second half of this year. So what's behind this? And does the CSP acquisition tie into it because it gives you a bit more flexibility on your supply in the short term? That is one point. And then secondly, with this larger slab capacity once that is finished, is there any plan to also extend Calvert's product capability as well?

好的。這非常有幫助。那麼我的第二個問題是關於 Calvert 和 EAF 項目。我記得它本來應該在三月份步入正軌，但在相當短的時間內通知被推遲了，因為我猜啟動計劃是在今年下半年。那麼這背後是什麼？ CSP 收購是否與此相關，因為它在短期內為您的供應提供了更大的靈活性？這是一點。其次，隨著板坯產能的增加，一旦完成，是否有計劃也擴大卡爾弗特的產品產能？

So just overall, in terms of Calvert, and it supplies you're right, the EAF project is delayed. This is primarily just delaying construction work and finding the right skill set, i.e., the people to do the critical jobs. I would not read anything more into it than just that. And so as time went by, we realize that this project is going to get delayed, and we took the opportunity today to inform you of that. In terms of overall product capability at Calvert, we are still focused on a second year. This will continue to enhance our ability to approach the U.S. marketplace and continue to produce value-add product. first [DM] obviously, as you know, is automotive capable.

因此，總體而言，就 Calvert 而言，EAF 項目被推遲了，這說明你是對的。這主要只是推遲建設工作並尋找合適的技能，即從事關鍵工作的人員。除此之外，我不會再讀到任何其他內容。隨著時間的推移，我們意識到這個項目將被推遲，今天我們藉此機會通知您這一點。就卡爾弗特的整體產品能力而言，我們仍然關注第二年。這將繼續增強我們進入美國市場並繼續生產增值產品的能力。正如您所知，第一個[DM]顯然具有汽車功能。

So we plan to produce automotive grades through the stream we have the right asset base, the right equipment that we've invested into to ensure that we're capable of doing that. In terms of overall slabs, yes, for CSP, we now have more slabs as a group. But if you look at what we're trying to achieve and my answer's in Mexico, we feel very comfortable with this exposure. So we're very happy with the CSP acquisition, very happy with our Tubarao slab capabilities, same with the Mexican slab capability. So very happy with the overall mix that we have as we develop our business.

因此，我們計劃通過我們擁有合適的資產基礎和投資的合適設備來生產汽車級產品，以確保我們有能力做到這一點。就整體板而言，是的，對於 CSP，我們現在有更多的板作為一個整體。但如果你看看我們正在努力實現的目標，而我的答案是在墨西哥，我們對這種曝光感到非常滿意。因此，我們對 CSP 的收購非常滿意，對我們的 Tubarao 板坯能力非常滿意，對墨西哥板坯能力也是如此。我們對發展業務時的整體組合非常滿意。

So we'll move now to a question from Max at ODDO.

現在我們將討論 ODDO 的 Max 提出的問題。

I noticed that you increased your EBIT guidance for the Liberian project from $250 million to $350 million. I did not understand why it was the case since the scope is unchanged and assume the assumptions for iron ore prices are also unchanged? So perhaps can you elaborate a little bit on this one?

我注意到你們將利比里亞項目的息稅前利潤指導從 2.5 億美元提高到了 3.5 億美元。我不明白為什麼會出現這種情況，因為範圍沒有變化，並且假設鐵礦石價格的假設也沒有變化？那麼也許您可以詳細說明一下這個問題嗎？

Yes. Let me take it up. Look, fundamentally, it's all the 3 that you talked about. So with the changes, we can produce a higher grade product. And clearly, with the higher grade product, we generate more premia. And we do believe that the pricing of that premia and the overall price deck has changed as well. And so we updated our assumptions and the EBITDA has now moved from $250 million $350 million. If you look at our assumptions within the model, it's still much lower than where iron ore pricing is today. right? Iron ore pricing today is much more elevated in these long-term assumptions. The asset is a Tier 1 asset.

是的。讓我把它拿起來。你看，從根本上來說，這就是你所說的這三個。所以通過改變，我們可以生產出更高檔次的產品。顯然，隨著產品等級的提高，我們產生的溢價也更高。我們確實相信溢價和整體價格的定價也發生了變化。因此，我們更新了假設，EBITDA 現在從 2.5 億美元變為 3.5 億美元。如果你看看我們在模型中的假設，它仍然比今天的鐵礦石定價低得多。正確的？在這些長期假設下，今天的鐵礦石定價要高得多。該資產為一級資產。

It's a well-invested -- it's well investor -- resource body will be a well-invested mine. It's low cost. We own the railway. We have port access, and therefore, you should expect higher levels of profitability. Even in terms of our estimate, the overall iron ore pricing and our estimate of $350 million of EBITDA it's lower than consensus assumptions. We've also made other improvements, like we have changed how we do the transshipment and all of that on the logistical side, and that also adds to the EBITDA and lowers the FOB cost of the product. So I hope I provided you with enough color.

這是一個投資良好的——投資者良好的——資源機構將是一個投資良好的礦山。它的成本很低。我們擁有鐵路。我們擁有港口通道，因此，您應該期望更高的盈利水平。即使就我們的估計而言，鐵礦石的整體定價以及我們對 3.5 億美元 EBITDA 的估計也低於共識假設。我們還進行了其他改進，例如我們改變了轉運方式以及物流方面的所有方面，這也增加了 EBITDA 並降低了產品的 FOB 成本。所以我希望我為你提供了足夠的色彩。

That's clear. And second question is on the Texas HBI unit. You seem to be very satisfied with it. But a few weeks ago, the talent actually took an impairment on this asset. So I was wondering why you could have such different views on the same asset?

很清楚。第二個問題是關於德克薩斯州 HBI 單位的。看來你對此很滿意。但幾週前，人才實際上對這項資產進行了減值。所以我想知道為什麼您對同一資產會有如此不同的看法？

Well, Max, it's very difficult to comment on that. I mean, clearly, we don't see any reason for us to take an impairment there. I mean the asset is performing very well. We had a record production, profitability is quite strong as we highlighted in our planning. But I mean, I cannot really comment on the reasons why our partner they decided to take [it against].

好吧，麥克斯，對此很難發表評論。我的意思是，顯然，我們認為沒有任何理由在那裡受到損害。我的意思是該資產表現非常好。正如我們在計劃中強調的那樣，我們的產量創紀錄，盈利能力相當強勁。但我的意思是，我無法真正評論我們的合作夥伴決定採取[反對]的原因。

Of course, that's fair. And perhaps the last one on Fossil, there was a lot of at least in France regarding the unit because there was a feel that it might close for an undetermined time at that one point in time. Do you think that's fully behind you now and that the risk of a shutdown is completely out?

當然，這是公平的。也許是 Fossil 上的最後一個，至少在法國有很多關於該單位的聲音，因為有人感覺它可能會在那個時間點關閉一段不確定的時間。您是否認為這種情況現在已經完全過去了，並且關閉的風險已經完全消除了？

Yes. Thank you for the question. Let me just explain the situation. Fundamentally, there was an inspection that occurred, which identified that the dust levels were too high. And we obviously do not agree. We have a lot of remedial actions on that already underway. It went to the court and the court obviously cited with us. The onus is on us to implement all the actions. We are busy doing -- busy implementing all of these directives. And it's also important to recognize that the dust requirements have been a moving goal post. So it's not that -- this has been the noncompliance for a long period of time to change the regulations and with the new regulations, we're still implementing the actions, and the court has cited with us.

是的。感謝你的提問。我簡單說明一下情況。基本上，進行了一次檢查，發現灰塵含量過高。而我們顯然不同意。我們已經就此採取了許多補救措施。它被提交給法院，法院顯然向我們提出了訴訟。我們有責任實施所有行動。我們正忙著執行所有這些指令。同樣重要的是要認識到灰塵要求一直是一個不斷變化的目標。所以並不是這樣的——這已經是很長一段時間以來不遵守規定的情況了，根據新的規定，我們仍在實施這些行動，法院已經向我們援引過。

So as long as we implement those actions, which we absolutely intend to do, I do not see further risk. Overall, the facility has reduced its level of dust emission quite dramatically. So if you look at what has happened over the last few years, there's been a 70% reduction, for example, overall in terms of the coke facilities and other areas. So the company is on the right track. But clearly, it remains work in progress.

因此，只要我們實施這些我們絕對打算採取的行動，我就看不到進一步的風險。總體而言，該設施的粉塵排放水平顯著降低。因此，如果你看看過去幾年發生的情況，就會發現焦炭設施和其他領域的總體減少了 70%。因此，該公司正走在正確的軌道上。但顯然，它仍在進行中。

So I think Aditya, we've got time for a couple of follow-up questions, the first of which we'll take from Tom at Barclays.

因此，我認為 Aditya，我們有時間回答幾個後續問題，其中第一個問題我們將由巴克萊銀行的 Tom 提出。

Just 2 left from my side. The first one just on China exports. So you attributed the increase to international price differentials it's obviously closed a little bit, but I guess FX is working against you. You still see European HRC prices quite a bit above China. Do you think that gap is closed? Or do you still see sort of risks of China exports through Q3 and Q4? That's the first one.

離我這邊只剩下2個了。第一個是關於中國出口的。因此，您將增長歸因於國際價差，顯然它已經關閉了一點，但我猜外匯對您不利。您仍然會看到歐洲熱軋卷價格遠高於中國。您認為差距已經縮小了嗎？或者您認為第三季度和第四季度中國出口仍然存在某種風險？這是第一個。

Well, let me take this one. Yes. So we have seen, of course, the level of exports from China rising. That is, of course, a concern. More recently, we have seen the government currently taking action to control the level of production, which is, of course, very good news. You have seen also our forecast for the mailing challenge, basically unchanged. So to the extent that we see a correction in production now in the second half, our expectation then would be that the level of exports come down accordingly. .

好吧，讓我拿這個吧。是的。當然，我們看到中國的出口水平在上升。當然，這是一個令人擔憂的問題。最近，我們看到政府正在採取行動控制生產水平，這當然是一個非常好的消息。您還看到了我們對郵寄挑戰的預測，基本沒有變化。因此，如果我們看到下半年生產出現調整，那麼我們的預期是出口水平相應下降。 。

And of course, there is also discussions about new stimulus, which is also always good news in the Chinese -- for the Chinese market. It's a little bit of industry overall. But as we know, I mean, from the moment this stimulus are really announced effective. It's going to take some time for us to see action on the ground. So our base case this year remains that the apparent steel consumption in China is going to be relatively flat. But if that happens, we are going support us in 2024, maybe beginning of the year more in the second quarter of 2020.

當然，還有關於新刺激措施的討論，這對中國人來說也是好消息——對於中國市場來說。總體而言，這是一個小行業。但據我們所知，我的意思是，從這項刺激措施真正宣布生效的那一刻起。我們需要一些時間才能看到實際行動。因此，我們今年的基本預測仍然是中國的鋼材表觀消費量將相對持平。但如果這種情況發生，我們將在 2024 年提供支持，也許在 2020 年第二季度年初提供更多支持。

That makes sense. And then the other question was just maybe a little bit more on the guidance. So on Slide 7, you get to some very good chart, I suppose, of EBITDA per tonne, H1 has been at $155. So well above that long-term average line that you put there at $120. But given the sort of commentary on spread compression given the ArcelorMittal PMI, I see is the lowest basically ever since apart from COVID and GFC. Is it fair to say that H2 EBITDA per tonne should be trending below the $120 average? Or do you think this is a new sort of floor level fee despite sort of macro headwinds?

這就說得通了。然後另一個問題可能只是關於指導的更多內容。因此，在幻燈片 7 上，您可以看到一些非常好的圖表，我想，H1 的每噸 EBITDA 為 155 美元。遠高於您設定的長期平均線 120 美元。但考慮到安賽樂米塔爾採購經理人指數（PMI）對價差壓縮的評論，我認為這是自新冠疫情和全球金融危機以來基本上最低的。可以公平地說，下半年每噸 EBITDA 應該低於 120 美元的平均水平嗎？或者，儘管存在宏觀阻力，您是否認為這是一種新的底線費用？

Tom, this is not something that -- I mean we're not going to be specific on that. I mean I think it's clear in what we are trying to highlight, it's all the improvements that we have made over the last couple of years. I think that's very, very clear, and we can really see that in our results. We're very pleased with that. But I'm not going to be specific in terms of -- a bit of it on guidance in the second half.

湯姆，這不是——我的意思是我們不會具體說明這一點。我的意思是，我認為我們想要強調的內容很清楚，這就是我們在過去幾年中所做的所有改進。我認為這非常非常清楚，我們可以在我們的結果中看到這一點。我們對此非常滿意。但我不會具體說明下半年的指導。

I would just add that you paint a very negative picture. And all the data that you pointed to is accurate. So I'm not arguing with the data. But I think the positive also is that inventories in the system remain low, right? So maybe we have those PMI readings and all of that. But fundamentally, what we don't have when real demand is going sideways is the inventory destock. That we went through in the fourth quarter of last year. And so parent demand is relatively flat. We expect second half '23, as Genuino said earlier, volumes to be better than second half 2022. Auto is strong relatively in this marketplace. Auto is doing well. It's offsetting some of the weakness that we're seeing in the construction segments.

我想補充一點，你描繪了一幅非常消極的畫面。您指出的所有數據都是準確的。所以我不會與數據爭論。但我認為積極的一面是系統中的庫存仍然很低，對吧？所以也許我們有 PMI 讀數等等。但從根本上來說，當實際需求橫盤整理時，我們所缺乏的是庫存去庫存。我們在去年第四季度經歷了這一點。因此家長的需求相對平穩。正如 Genuino 之前所說，我們預計 23 年下半年銷量將好於 2022 年下半年。汽車在這個市場中相對強勁。汽車錶現良好。它抵消了我們在建築領域看到的一些弱點。

That's very clear. Sorry, I didn't mean to paint negative picture. I was just sort of referencing your slides, but that's -- yes, that's helpful.

這非常清楚。抱歉，我無意描繪負面畫面。我只是參考了您的幻燈片，但這很有幫助。

So I think we'll move now to our last question, a follow-up from Alain at Morgan Stanley.

因此，我認為我們現在將討論最後一個問題，摩根士丹利的阿蘭提出的後續問題。

One question for me is on gearing. So you have had a net debt target of around $7 billion in the past, but we have been consistently below that level for the last while. Of course, the business remains cyclical. But all else being equal, where would you like your net debt to be at the end of next year and the next 12 months in the context of your growth projects, the buyback program and decarbonization? That's my question.

對我來說，有一個問題是關於傳動裝置的。因此，過去的淨債務目標約為 70 億美元，但過去一段時間我們一直低於該水平。當然，業務仍然具有周期性。但在其他條件相同的情況下，在增長項目、回購計劃和脫碳的背景下，您希望明年年底和未來 12 個月的淨債務是多少？這就是我的問題。

Well, as you know, Aditya, we don't really have a target for net debt. All we have been saying is that we don't want to cross our self-imposed limit of $7 billion. right? So we're going to be within that range. Having said that, as we said that in the past, we don't have the intention to structure also be a positive net debt balance sheet. That's not really the objective. But I think we feel very comfortable with the level that we have right now, and we are -- they allow the company to focus on executing its strategy. So we feel relaxed. We have -- we are seeing what is happening in the marketplace, and we remain able to continue the execution of our strategy, which is very good.

嗯，正如你所知，Aditya，我們實際上並沒有淨債務目標。我們一直在說的是，我們不想超過我們自己設定的 70 億美元的限額。正確的？所以我們將在這個範圍內。話雖如此，正如我們過去所說，我們無意構建正的淨債務資產負債表。這並不是真正的目標。但我認為我們對目前的水平感到非常滿意，而且我們——它們讓公司能夠專注於執行其戰略。所以我們感到輕鬆。我們正在觀察市場上正在發生的事情，並且我們仍然能夠繼續執行我們的戰略，這非常好。

So that's the last of our questions, Aditya. So handing back to you to close the call.

這是我們的最後一個問題，Aditya。所以交還給您來結束通話。

Okay. Great. Look, first of all, thank you very much for all your questions and interest in the company. As I said in the opening -- my opening remarks, we wanted to highlight 3 things. I hope you did that structural improvement to our earnings profile. The fact that we are making progress on decarb, we're very focused on reducing our carbon emissions, but maintaining the overall CapEx envelope.

好的。偉大的。首先，非常感謝您提出的所有問題以及對公司的興趣。正如我在開場白中所說，我們想強調三件事。我希望你們對我們的盈利狀況進行了結構性改善。事實上，我們在脫碳方面取得了進展，我們非常注重減少碳排放，但保持整體資本支出範圍。

We have unique strengths in making that possible, which we also talked about and also how well we're doing on our growth agenda. I know this quarter, we went through Liberia and Monlevade. But if you just look at what we have achieved, Pecem is doing really well in Brazil, Texas had record shipments. It had positive EBITDA contribution. We talked about the Mexico outstrip mill. We talked about AMNS, how well that is doing. So there's real tangible progress on our growth agenda. All these growth projects are outperforming our expectations and EBITDA guidance you would have thought of or we would have provided. So it's all very good news. So from my standpoint, and I said it in the last -- second to last question. I think, look, the second half of 2023 is not like the second half of 2022.

我們在實現這一目標方面擁有獨特的優勢，我們也談到了這一點，以及我們在增長議程上的進展情況。我知道這個季度，我們經歷了利比里亞和蒙勒瓦德。但如果你看看我們所取得的成就，Pecem 在巴西的表現非常好，德克薩斯州的出貨量創歷史新高。它有積極的 EBITDA 貢獻。我們談論了墨西哥超越工廠。我們討論了 AMNS，它的效果如何。因此，我們的增長議程取得了真正切實的進展。所有這些增長項目的表現都超出了我們的預期以及您可能想到的或我們可能提供的 EBITDA 指導。所以這都是非常好的消息。所以從我的角度來看，我在最後一個倒數第二個問題中說了這一點。我想，你看，2023年下半年和2022年下半年不一樣。

So overall, markets are also constructive. And clearly, most critical to us is the progress we've made in our business to ensure that we can cater to that market. We have safe, high-quality steel products in the marketplace and that we have made structural improvements to our business. So with that, I just want to thank everyone again, and wish everyone safe holidays in case you guys are taking some time off.

因此總體而言，市場也是具有建設性的。顯然，對我們來說最重要的是我們在業務方面取得的進展，以確保我們能夠迎合該市場。我們在市場上擁有安全、優質的鋼鐵產品，並且我們對我們的業務進行了結構性改進。因此，我想再次感謝大家，並祝大家假期安全，以防你們休假。

Thank you.

謝謝。