ArcelorMittal SA (MT) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everybody, and good morning. Welcome to ArcelorMittal's First Quarter 2023 Analyst Investor Call. As Francine said, this is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team. And as usual, I'm joined on this call today by Genuino Christino, our Chief Financial Officer.

大家下午好，早上好。歡迎來到安賽樂米塔爾 2023 年第一季度分析師投資者電話會議。正如 Francine 所說，這是安賽樂米塔爾投資者關係團隊的 Daniel Fairclough。和往常一樣，今天我們的首席財務官 Genuino Christino 也加入了我的電話會議。

Before I hand over to Genuino, I'd like to mention a few housekeeping items. First, I want to refer everybody to the disclaimers on Slide 2 of the results presentation that we published on our website this morning. I'd also like to remind everybody that today's call is being recorded and it's scheduled to last up to 45 minutes.

在我介紹 Genuino 之前，我想提一些內務事項。首先，我想請大家參閱我們今天上午在我們網站上發布的結果演示幻燈片 2 中的免責聲明。我還想提醒大家，今天的電話正在錄音中，預計將持續 45 分鐘。

And finally, I'd just like to reiterate Francine instructions. (Operator Instructions)

最後，我想重申 Francine 的指示。 （操作員說明）

And with that, I'd like to hand over to Genuino for his opening remarks.

說到這裡，我想請 Genuino 發表開場白。

Thank you, Daniel, and welcome, everyone. My remarks today will be brief and focus on 3 points only. The results continue to demonstrate improved profitability relative to prior cycles, growth -- the capital we have allocated to growth is delivering and supporting higher normalized profitability for ArcelorMittal. And the third point I will address is capital returns. The positive outlook for the business and for our free cash flow generation, we are launching a new buyback program.

謝謝你，丹尼爾，歡迎大家。我今天的發言會很簡短，只集中在三點上。結果繼續表明，相對於之前的周期、增長，盈利能力有所提高——我們分配給增長的資本正在為安賽樂米塔爾帶來並支持更高的標準化盈利能力。我要談的第三點是資本回報。鑑於業務和我們產生自由現金流的積極前景，我們正在啟動一項新的回購計劃。

Firstly, on results. As expected, at the end of the destock has supported a strong recovery in our shipment volumes. This has underpinned the sequential improvement in profitability. EBITDA per tonne improved to 126, the first quarter, comparing very favorably with prior cycles. This further highlights the benefits of our cost actions and portfolio upgrades in recent periods.

首先，關於結果。正如預期的那樣，在去庫存結束時支持了我們的出貨量強勁復甦。這支撐了盈利能力的連續改善。第一季度每噸 EBITDA 提高至 126，與之前的周期相比非常有利。這進一步凸顯了我們近期成本行動和產品組合升級的好處。

Secondly, on growth, the quarter -- this quarter, we completed the acquisition of CSP in Brazil, adding 3 million tonnes of highest quality capacity at the bottom of the cost curve. You will see the full impact on shipments and profitability in the second quarter. Together with the Texas HBI plant we acquired last year, and the contribution from the new hot strip mill in Mexico, our investments are clearly supporting higher normalized profitability. And our investments continue. We have this quarter announced the formation of a JV with Casa dos Ventos to develop 554-megawatt wind power project in Brazil. With a modest equity contribution, this project can supply up to 38% of our electricity needs in the country.

其次，在增長方面，本季度 - 本季度，我們完成了對巴西 CSP 的收購，在成本曲線底部增加了 300 萬噸最高質量的產能。您將在第二季度看到對出貨量和盈利能力的全面影響。加上我們去年收購的得克薩斯 HBI 工廠，以及墨西哥新熱帶鋼軋機的貢獻，我們的投資顯然支持更高的標準化盈利能力。我們的投資仍在繼續。我們在本季度宣布與 Casa dos Ventos 成立合資公司，以在巴西開發 554 兆瓦的風力發電項目。憑藉適度的股權出資，該項目最多可滿足該國 38% 的電力需求。

Finally, on capital returns. Our capital allocation and return policy is working very well. We are growing the earnings power of the business through our strategic CapEx and M&A, and we are gearing the benefits of this to shareholders by buying back shares and reducing the share count. We have now bought back 31% of our equity since September 2020 and still developing the business strategically and maintaining a strong balance sheet.

最後，關於資本回報。我們的資本分配和回報政策運作良好。我們正在通過我們的戰略性資本支出和併購來提高企業的盈利能力，我們正在通過回購股票和減少股份數量來為股東帶來好處。自 2020 年 9 月以來，我們現在已經回購了 31% 的股權，並且仍在戰略性地發展業務並保持強勁的資產負債表。

Given our positive outlook for the business and for free cash flow, we have today announced that we will buy back up to a further 85 million shares over the next 2 years. We see our shares as fundamentally undervalued, and our buybacks represent the best way for us to capitalize on the disconnect between our view on the outlook for ArcelorMittal and what is being priced today by the market.

鑑於我們對業務和自由現金流的積極展望，我們今天宣布，我們將在未來 2 年內再回購多達 8500 萬股股票。我們認為我們的股票從根本上被低估了，我們的回購是我們利用我們對安賽樂米塔爾前景的看法與當今市場定價之間的脫節的最佳方式。

With this brief opening remarks, then I think we can then move to the queries.

有了這個簡短的開場白，我想我們就可以開始提問了。

Great. Thank you, Genuino. So we have a queue formed of questions, and we'll take the first question, please, from Alain at Morgan Stanley.

偉大的。謝謝你，傑努諾。所以我們有一個由問題組成的隊列，我們將從摩根士丹利的 Alain 那裡回答第一個問題。

From my side. Firstly, the usual question, can you share with us the usual building blocks of your Q2 EBITDA, including prices and shipments by region, but also including those items such as the CSP contributions and the impact of the fires in Europe. Just thinking about the building blocks into Q2? That's the first question.

從我這邊。首先，常見的問題是，您能否與我們分享您第二季度 EBITDA 的常用組成部分，包括按地區劃分的價格和出貨量，還包括 CSP 貢獻和歐洲火災的影響等項目。只是考慮進入第二季度的基石？這是第一個問題。

Alain. Yes, thank you for the first question. So let me walk you through the moving parts. So let's start with Brazil. That's where we have the consolidation of CSP. So in Q1 you only have like 20 days of contribution. So it's not much. The asset is performing extremely well as we have in our slide deck, you can see actually providing what is the run rate in terms of EBITDA in the second quarter. You can see that we are guiding for a run rate annualized Q2 of about $600 million, which is way above what we believe to be the normalized levels for profitability for this business.

阿蘭。是的，謝謝你的第一個問題。因此，讓我向您介紹活動部件。那麼讓我們從巴西開始吧。這就是我們整合 CSP 的地方。所以在第一季度你只有大約 20 天的貢獻。所以它並不多。該資產的表現非常好，就像我們在幻燈片中看到的那樣，您可以看到實際上提供了第二季度 EBITDA 的運行率。你可以看到，我們指導的第二季度年化運行率約為 6 億美元，這遠高於我們認為該業務盈利能力的正常水平。

So Q2, we will have the full consolidation. So you will see a meaningful impact in our shipments. Also, our flat facility Tubarão will be producing more as we have seen a recovery of the pricing, especially for high-quality slabs. So shipments improving quite nicely in Brazil.

所以第二季度，我們將進行全面整合。所以你會看到我們的出貨量產生了有意義的影響。此外，我們的板材工廠 Tubarão 將生產更多，因為我們看到價格回升，特別是對於高質量板坯。因此，巴西的出貨量改善得很好。

We will see prices in Brazil relatively at segment level relatively stable, cost is coming down. So that's Brazil.

我們將看到巴西的價格在細分市場上相對穩定，成本正在下降。這就是巴西。

If we move to NAFTA. So NAFTA, as you can see, now shipments in Q1, we had higher shipments to our JV and Calvert quarter-on-quarter that's about 250 kt more. So in the second quarter, our forecast for the demand in U.S. continues to improve. The (inaudible) consumption in U.S. quarter-on-quarter. So we will now continue to do well in terms of shipments in NAFTA. Prices, as we know, will be up, given the lags and cost is slightly lower.

如果我們轉向北美自由貿易協定。所以北美自由貿易協定，正如你所看到的，現在第一季度的出貨量，我們對我們的合資企業和卡爾弗特的出貨量環比增加了大約 250 kt。因此，在第二季度，我們對美國需求的預測繼續改善。美國季度環比的（聽不清）消費。因此，我們現在將繼續在北美自由貿易協定的出貨量方面做得很好。正如我們所知，鑑於滯後和成本略低，價格將會上漲。

Then moving to Europe. Europe, it's -- we -- let me address the 2 incidents that we had in Spain and France. So we have 2 furnaces that are down, as you can see in our release. So we are working relentless to mitigate the impacts of the 2 incidents. And looking at our production in Q2 crude steel production, even though we're going to be slightly lower, I think we're going to be mitigating, to a large extent, the impact of the 2 shutdowns. So we have brought 1 furnace up in force.

然後搬到歐洲。歐洲，它是——我們——讓我談談我們在西班牙和法國發生的兩起事件。因此，正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們有 2 個熔爐出現故障。因此，我們正在不懈努力，以減輕這兩起事件的影響。看看我們在第二季度的粗鋼產量，儘管我們會略有下降，但我認為我們將在很大程度上減輕 2 次停產的影響。因此，我們啟用了 1 個熔爐。

The furnace in Spain was only operating for about 30 days in Q1. So I think we're going to be able to mitigate. We are ramping up Sestao. We are bringing materials from different parts of the group, slabs from Brazil, from India. So even though the headline production number will be slightly down, our ability to produce will be at par with quarter 1.

西班牙的熔爐在第一季度僅運行了大約 30 天。所以我認為我們將能夠緩解。我們正在提升 Sestao。我們從集團的不同部分引進材料，從巴西、印度引進板材。因此，即使總體產量略有下降，我們的生產能力仍將與第一季度持平。

However, as you can also see in our results, and you can see that we have destocked in Europe in quarter 1. You can see that the production numbers and shipment numbers are similar. So we have destocked and we're not going to be in a position to repeat the destock that you see in quarter 1. So the headline number, shipments number for Europe will be down. Prices will be higher and costs will be down. So overall, we believe the profitability of Europe should go up nicely as well.

但是，正如您在我們的結果中也看到的那樣，您可以看到我們在第一季度在歐洲減少了庫存。您可以看到生產數量和發貨數量相似。所以我們已經去庫存，我們不會重複你在第一季度看到的去庫存。所以標題數字，歐洲的出貨量將會下降。價格會更高，成本會下降。所以總的來說，我們認為歐洲的盈利能力也應該會很好地上升。

CIS, we should be doing better. We should be doing better in terms of shipments. Prices should be relatively stable and our cost should be down.

CIS，我們應該做得更好。我們應該在出貨方面做得更好。價格應該相對穩定，我們的成本應該下降。

It's a long answer, but by walking through all the moving parts here.

這是一個很長的答案，但是通過遍歷這裡所有的活動部分。

That's very clear. And the second question is on the buyback. So the announcement this morning extends through May 2025, which is quite unusual in terms of time frames, granted that it doesn't really impact your buyback potential for '23 because quite formulaic, but why not keeping simple and commit to a smaller buyback, but with a more defined and shorter time frame?

這很清楚。第二個問題是關於回購。因此，今天早上的公告將持續到 2025 年 5 月，這在時間框架上是非常不尋常的，因為它並沒有真正影響你在 23 年的回購潛力，因為它非常公式化，但為什麼不保持簡單並承諾進行更小的回購，但有更明確和更短的時間框架？

YYes. Look, I think with did announcement today, really, we have 2 key messages -- is one. One is that, look, we continue to believe that the business will continue to generate good levels of free cash flow, right? And second, we want to continue to do what we have been doing, which is to return 50% of the free cash flow to our shareholders. So we are not changing the policy that's a -- the policy is unchanged. I think what we saw before was that by doing announcements for a short periods of time, people were taking that as a kind of an implied guidance for free cash flow. And that's not something that we -- was not clearly our intention. So I think the key message is really, look, the company will continue to generate free cash. We will continue to distribute 50%.

是的。看，我認為今天確實有公告，真的，我們有 2 個關鍵信息——是一個。一是，看，我們仍然相信該業務將繼續產生良好水平的自由現金流，對嗎？其次，我們想繼續做我們一直在做的事情，即將 50% 的自由現金流返還給我們的股東。所以我們不會改變政策——政策沒有改變。我認為我們之前看到的是，通過在短時間內發佈公告，人們將其視為對自由現金流的一種隱含指導。這不是我們 - 顯然不是我們的意圖。所以我認為關鍵信息真的是，看，公司將繼續產生自由現金。我們將繼續分配50%。

And if you look at Q1 results, so we have a free cash flow neutral, but after investing up more than $800 million in working capital, right? So -- and we are guiding for a release of working capital for the year. So -- and if you were to strip out the working capital investments in Q1, the company would be generating close to $1 billion of free cash, which is quite strong. And we are still in recovery mode as we discussed.

如果你看一下第一季度的結果，那麼我們的自由現金流是中性的，但是在投入了超過 8 億美元的營運資金之後，對吧？所以 - 我們正在指導釋放當年的營運資金。所以——如果你要剔除第一季度的營運資本投資，公司將產生近 10 億美元的自由現金，這是相當強勁的。正如我們所討論的那樣，我們仍處於恢復模式。

Thanks, Alain. So we'll move to the next question, please, from Tristan at BNP.

謝謝，阿蘭。那麼我們將轉到下一個問題，請來自 BNP 的特里斯坦。

The first 1 is maybe just a little bit more on Europe. Can you discuss a bit the time line for the restart and the ongoing repair works taking place at Dunkerque and Gijon, more specifically in Spain, I believe you had to use explosives to remove the solidified pig iron. So my first question is, is the integrity of the furnace at risk. And also, you've maintained your group shipment guidance despite those significant shutdowns. So how confident are you that you will be able to mitigate that and catch up the volume loss in Europe? I think you mentioned staff from CSP, but -- is there any other part of the groups are -- that will do better in terms of shipments?

第一個可能只是關於歐洲的一點點。你能談談重啟的時間表以及在敦刻爾克和希洪正在進行的維修工作嗎，更具體地說是在西班牙，我相信你必須使用炸藥來清除凝固的生鐵。所以我的第一個問題是，熔爐的完整性是否存在風險。而且，儘管發生了這些重大停工，你們仍然保持了團體裝運指導。那麼，您對能夠減輕這種情況並趕上歐洲的銷量損失有多大信心？我想你提到了 CSP 的員工，但是 - 是否有任何其他部門 - 會在發貨方面做得更好？

Tristan, it is. But in terms of the timing, what you have in our release is. Everybody is, of course, trying to get the furnaces back as soon as possible. So we are giving June as a date for the restart of the furnaces, both Spain and in Dunkerque. So you're right. So this is a complex process, and it's progressing well. The procedures that are being used, they are standard in such cases.

特里斯坦，是的。但就時間而言，您在我們的發布中擁有的是。當然，每個人都在努力盡快取回熔爐。因此，我們將 6 月作為重啟西班牙和敦刻爾克熔爐的日期。所以你是對的。所以這是一個複雜的過程，而且進展順利。正在使用的程序，在這種情況下是標準的。

I think we were also very pleased that despite the incidents, we had no injuries. Everybody was safe and that's what we are trying also to keep doing this -- the repairs of the 2 furnaces, right?

我想我們也很高興儘管發生了事故，但我們沒有受傷。每個人都很安全，這也是我們正在努力繼續這樣做的——修復兩個熔爐，對吧？

And as I said, I think when it comes to our shipment guidance, and as I was telling a lot, I think we are doing everything we can to mitigate the impacts, right? So we had, of course, a strong first quarter because of the destock that we sought more from stocks. So we remain at this point, optimistic that we're going to be able to achieve our targets. And of course, depend on how it progresses, we will update you. But at this point in time, we don't see anything when I compare to what we discussed at the time of our earnings -- Q4 earnings. If anything, the situation has improved. So at this point, we remain optimistic that we can deliver on that.

正如我所說，我認為當涉及到我們的裝運指導時，正如我所說的那樣，我認為我們正在盡一切努力減輕影響，對吧？因此，當然，由於我們從庫存中尋求更多的去庫存，我們第一季度表現強勁。所以我們在這一點上保持樂觀，我們將能夠實現我們的目標。當然，我們會根據進展情況向您更新。但在這個時間點，當我與我們在發布收益時討論的內容——第四季度收益進行比較時，我們看不到任何東西。如果有的話，情況已經有所改善。因此，在這一點上，我們仍然樂觀地認為我們可以實現這一目標。

All right. That's very clear. And if I could follow up on another question, maybe bigger picture there on the energy strategy. Could you discuss a bit your strategy when it comes to vertical integration towards energy. I think you have announced projects in India and Brazil. The Europe is probably the region, which will see first the higher need for green power. So could you give us an update on the current projects? I think you signed an MOU in Germany, you're part of the consortium in Spain. But when you look at those projects, DRI/EAF project in Belgium, France, et cetera, how do you plan to solve the energy side of the equation in Continental Europe?

好的。這很清楚。如果我可以跟進另一個問題，也許可以更全面地了解能源戰略。當涉及到能源的垂直整合時，你能談談你的戰略嗎？我想你已經宣布了在印度和巴西的項目。歐洲可能是最先看到對綠色能源的更高需求的地區。那麼你能給我們介紹一下當前項目的最新情況嗎？我想你在德國簽署了一份諒解備忘錄，你是西班牙財團的一部分。但是，當您查看這些項目時，例如比利時、法國等地的 DRI/EAF 項目，您打算如何解決歐洲大陸方程式的能源方面？

Yes, Tristan, look, I think we continue to look at the projects in Europe as well. And I can tell you, we have gone through several of them. So far, we have not yet come to a point where we feel we can go ahead, right? So that's not -- it's not like in Brazil or anywhere you can clearly see that you can achieve a good levels of returns. But we continue to explore the projects in Europe, the options, right?

是的，特里斯坦，看，我想我們也會繼續關注歐洲的項目。我可以告訴你，我們已經經歷了其中的幾個。到目前為止，我們還沒有達到我們認為可以繼續前進的地步，對嗎？所以這不是 - 它不像在巴西或任何你可以清楚地看到你可以獲得良好回報水平的地方。但是我們繼續探索歐洲的項目，選擇，對嗎？

The good thing is that we are seeing a normalization, right? So we are seeing gas prices normalizing coming back now to levels that are close to pre-war levels. We are seeing the power cost is also coming down. I think the European government, they understand the importance to keep the costs to levels that then can keep the competitiveness of the European industry. So I think we will continue to explore the possibilities. But as we discussed in a couple of quarters ago, I think we're going to engage and sign contracts when they make economic sense.

好消息是我們正在看到正常化，對嗎？因此，我們看到天然氣價格正在恢復正常，回到接近戰前水平的水平。我們看到電力成本也在下降。我認為歐洲政府，他們了解將成本保持在可以保持歐洲工業競爭力的水平的重要性。所以我認為我們將繼續探索各種可能性。但正如我們在幾個季度前討論的那樣，我認為我們將在具有經濟意義的情況下參與並簽署合同。

And so far, we have not yet been able to find good projects in Europe where we can justify the investments. And then, of course, we continue to look for PPAs ways to secure the energy needs of the footprint.

到目前為止，我們還沒有在歐洲找到可以證明投資合理性的好項目。然後，當然，我們會繼續尋找 PPA 方法來確保足蹟的能源需求。

Great. So we'll move to the next question, please, from Patrick at Bank of America.

偉大的。那麼我們將轉到下一個問題，請來自美國銀行的帕特里克。

Just wanted to ask if you could give us your outlook for steel spreads and margins and prices maybe for the rest of the year. So we've seen the end of destocking, prices move up and spreads open up, but prices especially in Europe seem to kind of stalled in the last month or so. I mean when you look at the market outlook from here for the remainder of the year, what are you expecting? Or what do you think are the key things that you're monitoring?

只是想問問您是否可以給我們您對今年剩餘時間的鋼鐵價差和利潤率以及價格的展望。所以我們已經看到去庫存結束，價格上漲，價差擴大，但價格，尤其是歐洲的價格，似乎在過去一個月左右停滯不前。我的意思是，當你從這裡看今年剩餘時間的市場前景時，你有什麼期待？或者您認為您正在監控的關鍵事項是什麼？

Yes, Patrick, as you know, I mean, we don't really comment on the evolution of prices. I think -- but I mean, looking at the evolution of the indexes today, I mean, as you rightly said, we have the European prices relatively stable of for a couple of weeks at good levels. Of course, we have prices in U.S. is still holding up quite well. And we are seeing raw materials coming down, right? So we are seeing coal prices down quite significantly.

是的，帕特里克，正如你所知，我的意思是，我們並沒有真正評論價格的演變。我認為 - 但我的意思是，看看今天指數的演變，我的意思是，正如你所說的那樣，我們的歐洲價格在幾週內相對穩定，處於良好水平。當然，我們在美國的價格仍然保持得很好。我們看到原材料在下降，對嗎？因此，我們看到煤炭價格大幅下跌。

I don't know prices as well if anything, at this point, what we see is that spreads are improving. I think, I would also point that what is probably quite relevant in this discussion is the level of inventories that we see in the system today, right? So even though we have seen a recovery in volumes in quarter 1, we don't believe that this is really being driven by restocking.

我也不知道價格，如果有的話，在這一點上，我們看到的是價差正在改善。我想，我還要指出，在這次討論中可能非常相關的是我們今天在系統中看到的庫存水平，對嗎？因此，即使我們看到第一季度銷量有所回升，我們也不認為這真的是由補貨推動的。

When we look at that, we look at inventory levels in Europe, in U.S., across the regions where we operate, we actually believe that inventory levels are quite low, which should then continue to support the apparent steel consumption going forward, which is a good sign, something that should continue to support the business.

當我們審視這一點時，我們看看歐洲、美國以及我們運營所在地區的庫存水平，我們實際上認為庫存水平相當低，這應該會繼續支撐未來的表觀鋼鐵消費，這是一個好兆頭，應該繼續支持業務。

And maybe just related to that, what are you seeing on imports? We have seen kind of increased exports out of China in particular. What are you seeing as imports into your key regions?

也許與此相關，您在進口方面看到了什麼？我們特別看到中國的出口有所增加。您認為關鍵區域的進口是什麼？

Yes. Well, so far, they have come down, right? I mean, imports in Europe and U.S., they are -- they remain, of course, elevated in Europe, but below in terms of looking at the market share of imports in Europe, they are below what they were in Q1 of last year.

是的。好吧，到目前為止，他們已經下來了，對吧？我的意思是，歐洲和美國的進口，它們 - 當然，它們在歐洲仍然處於高位，但就歐洲進口的市場份額而言，它們低於去年第一季度的水平。

We have seen also a decline in U.S., also some decline in Brazil. So, so far, it's not visible, right? But that's, of course, always a point for us to be watching.

我們也看到美國有所下降，巴西也有所下降。所以，到目前為止，它是不可見的，對吧？但是，當然，這始終是我們關注的重點。

So we'll move now to a question from Tom with Barclays.

因此，我們現在將轉向 Tom with Barclays 提出的問題。

Just the first one, with Calvert, I saw you raised the CapEx guidance slightly highlighting enlarged scope and inflation. Could you just confirm what the enlarged scope is? And then whether or not we should think about a read across from inflation into your sort of other CapEx budgets in particular, the EUR 10 billion decarbonization budget? That's the first question.

只是第一個，我看到你和卡爾弗特一起提高了資本支出指導，略微強調了擴大範圍和通貨膨脹。你能確認擴大範圍是什麼嗎？然後我們是否應該考慮從通貨膨脹到您的其他資本支出預算，特別是 100 億歐元的脫碳預算？這是第一個問題。

Yes. Sure, Thomas. Yes, we have updated the CapEx. So from the EUR 800 million to about EUR 1 billion and yes, so what -- as you know, I mean, this is a project that is being designed for 3 million tonnes. And as we go ahead and execute the first phase, it makes sense for us to prepare parts of the second phase. So that's the scope and then there is always -- there is a component here of inflation as well.

是的。當然，托馬斯。是的，我們已經更新了資本支出。因此，從 8 億歐元到大約 10 億歐元，是的，那又怎樣——正如你所知，我的意思是，這是一個設計為 300 萬噸的項目。當我們繼續執行第一階段時，我們有必要準備第二階段的部分內容。所以這就是范圍，然後總是有——這裡也有通貨膨脹的一個組成部分。

When it comes to the big number, the $10 billion, that's our best estimate at this point. So we are -- where we are right now in this process is -- so we are going through the pre-seed of the projects in Europe, the Canadian project as well.

說到大數字，100 億美元，這是我們目前最好的估計。所以我們 - 我們現在在這個過程中的位置 - 所以我們正在經歷歐洲項目的預種子，以及加拿大項目。

And our intention is to release the next climate report where we will provide an update on the status of our forecasts, and it should be -- I would expect this process to be completed and released by end of this year or beginning of next year.

我們的目的是發布下一份氣候報告，我們將在報告中提供有關我們預測狀態的最新信息，它應該是——我希望這個過程能夠在今年年底或明年年初完成並發布。

Perfect. And then just quickly on Brazil. You mentioned CSP is running more than double normalized profitability right now. So I guess the export slab demand is quite strong. But if I sort of piece that together with the earnings, I get a conclusion that made the domestic market is a little bit softer. Do you think that's a fair assessment? And if so, any thoughts on sort of mix changes in the coming quarters in Brazil?

完美的。然後很快就談到巴西。你提到 CSP 現在的正常化盈利能力是原來的兩倍多。所以我猜出口板坯需求相當強勁。但如果我將其與收益結合起來，我得出的結論是國內市場略微疲軟。你認為這是一個公平的評估嗎？如果是這樣，對巴西未來幾個季度的混合變化有什麼想法嗎？

Look, I think we remain comfortable with the guidance that we provided at the time of our Q4 results. So we are seeing apparent steel consumption in Brazil improving this year, both flat and longs, also driven by the end of the destock that also impacted the Brazilian business last year. So I think domestically, when I look at our volumes, quarter-on-quarter, they have moved up. So also relatively stable year-on-year.

看，我認為我們對我們在第四季度結果時提供的指導感到滿意。因此，我們看到今年巴西的表觀鋼鐵消費量有所改善，包括持平和長材，這也是受到去年影響巴西業務的去庫存結束的推動。因此，我認為在國內，當我按季度查看我們的銷量時，它們已經上升了。所以同比也比較穩定。

So I think there is, I would say, the start of the year in Brazil, maybe not as strong as we had hoped. But when we look at the performance of the business, it has been good, and so we remain -- we are not changing our guidance.

所以我認為，我想說的是，巴西的年初可能沒有我們希望的那麼強勁。但當我們審視業務表現時，它一直很好，所以我們仍然存在——我們沒有改變我們的指導。

Okay. And no changes to sort of mix in Q2 versus Q1 as well?

好的。 Q2 和 Q1 的組合也沒有變化嗎？

Well, I think in terms of the mix, I mean, what you can expect, of course, is more exports right? We're going to be exporting more in slabs because that's the product with the highest prices in Q2, especially high-quality slabs. So you're going to have the contribution from CSP. So in Q1, you have about 200 kt of shipments from CSP and then we are running at full capacity. So it's a 3 million tonnes facility. So you can see what is the impact in terms of shipments coming from CSP.

好吧，我認為就組合而言，我的意思是，你當然可以期待更多的出口，對嗎？我們將出口更多板坯，因為這是第二季度價格最高的產品，尤其是高質量板坯。因此，您將獲得 CSP 的貢獻。所以在第一季度，你有大約 200 kt 來自 CSP 的出貨量，然後我們正在滿負荷運轉。所以這是一個 300 萬噸的設施。因此，您可以了解 CSP 對出貨量的影響。

And as I said at the beginning, we should also be ramping up production in Tubarao, for more lab exports. So I think what you will see is a mix that is more geared towards exports. But in Q2, in particular, the exports of slabs they will enjoy if you look at the Brazilian slab prices, it will be -- it will -- they are quite profitable.

正如我一開始所說，我們還應該提高 Tubarao 的產量，以增加實驗室出口。所以我認為你會看到的是一種更適合出口的組合。但特別是在第二季度，如果你看一下巴西的板坯價格，他們將享受的板坯出口將是 - 將會 - 他們非常有利可圖。

Thanks, Tom. So we'll move now to a question from Myles at UBS.

謝謝，湯姆。那麼我們現在將轉向瑞銀邁爾斯的問題。

So I had couple questions. Could you just give us a sense of what the larger scope is in Liberia? Is it more tonnes? Or is there another phase of the expansion that you're preparing for that?

所以我有幾個問題。您能否讓我們了解一下利比里亞的更大範圍？是不是更多噸？還是您正在為此準備擴展的另一個階段？

Yes. Myles -- thank you for the question. So we are really looking at the product, that's one. Also looking at the infrastructure, the port -- so I would say it's basically the quality of the product, the infrastructure. I would say those are probably the main scope changes that we are contemplating.

是的。邁爾斯——謝謝你的提問。所以我們真的在看產品，就是一個。還要看基礎設施，港口——所以我想說這基本上是產品質量，基礎設施。我想說這些可能是我們正在考慮的主要範圍變更。

Okay. And in terms of timing, is it still on track and I presume the size is unchanged in terms of the total expansion?

好的。就時間而言，它是否仍在軌道上，我認為就總擴張而言，規模沒有變化？

Yes. The size is -- at this point, it's unchanged, 15 million tonnes, and we are on track for end of 2024.

是的。規模是 - 在這一點上，它沒有變化，1500 萬噸，我們有望在 2024 年底實現。

Okay. And we talked a little bit about inventories. What about your order books? Have you seen a meaningful change in the length of the order books in any region over the last sort of few months? I mean, I guess, given the prices are stagnating and starting to drift down. I presume there's been a little bit of a shortening to order books in certain regions?

好的。我們談了一點庫存。你的訂單簿呢？在過去的幾個月裡，您是否看到任何地區的訂單長度發生了有意義的變化？我的意思是，我猜，鑑於價格停滯不前並開始下滑。我想在某些地區訂購書籍的時間有所縮短？

Not really, My -- the order books are strong. They are good. We're then looking at Europe, they have increased during the quarter. So we are looking at -- I think we have good visibility now at least end of August. So we are well advanced with our bookings for quarter 3. So I think that's good in U.S., as you know, lead times extended above what would be considered normal levels. So I think the order books, they are looking good.

不是真的，我的 - 訂單簿很強大。他們很好。然後我們看看歐洲，他們在本季度有所增加。所以我們正在考慮——我認為我們現在至少在八月底有很好的能見度。所以我們在第三季度的預訂方面進展順利。所以我認為這在美國很好，正如你所知，交貨時間延長到正常水平以上。所以我認為訂單簿看起來不錯。

So we'll take the next question from Phil at KeyBanc.

所以我們將接受 KeyBanc 的 Phil 的下一個問題。

Very substantial pickup in NAFTA volumes year-on-year. Can you isolate how much of that was due to the new Mexican hot strip mill and perhaps some more volume off of that?

北美自由貿易協定交易量同比大幅回升。您能否區分出其中有多少是由於新的墨西哥熱帶鋼軋機造成的，也許還有更多的產量？

Yes. Philip. Well, we are already at about 60% of capacity, right, in Mexico. So yes running at -- it's 350 kt, more or less per quarter now. So of course, the year before, we were more producing these slabs, right? We were just at the beginning of the ramp-up. So that's why I think when you look at the volumes year-on-year in NAFTA, so we are doing better year-on-year in Canada and in Mexico, right?

是的。菲利普。好吧，我們在墨西哥的產能已經達到了大約 60%。所以是的，現在是 350 kt，每季度或多或少。所以當然，前一年，我們更多地生產這些板材，對吧？我們才剛剛開始加速發展。所以這就是為什麼我認為當你查看北美自由貿易協定的同比數量時，我們在加拿大和墨西哥的同比表現更好，對吧？

So we had a very good strong production levels in Mexico, which is supporting the ramp-up of the hot strip mill. And also, as I discussed maybe at the beginning, we have also more shipments of slabs from NAFTA to Calvert JV, right? So year-on-year, the number is not that different, so it doesn't really explain the improvement in shipments year-on-year. But when you think about it quarter-on-quarter, we have increased by about 250 kt shipments of slabs from our segment to Calvert JV.

因此，我們在墨西哥的生產水平非常強勁，這支持了熱帶鋼軋機的產能提升。而且，正如我在開始時討論的那樣，我們也有更多的板坯從北美自由貿易協定運往卡爾弗特合資企業，對吧？所以與去年同期相比，這個數字並沒有太大的不同，所以它並不能真正解釋出貨量同比的改善。但是當你按季度考慮時，我們從我們的部門到 Calvert JV 的板坯出貨量增加了約 250 kt。

And just as a follow-up, if you -- I think you may have given some color on what you think CSP might contribute earlier in your script, if so, can you reiterate that?

作為後續行動，如果你 - 我認為你可能已經對你認為 CSP 可能在你的腳本中做出的貢獻給出了一些顏色，如果是這樣，你能重申一下嗎？

Yes. I think we are very pleased with the acquisition. As I said, so we shipped -- we consolidated 20 days of the business in Q1, that's about 200 kt of shipments. So the it's -- the company is running full. We are in the process of integrating with our existing Brazilian operations. And you have in our deck, we are providing what is the run rate -- annualized run rate in Q2, which is at EBITDA level of about EUR 600 million that's the annualized quarter 2 run rate. So doing extremely well.

是的。我認為我們對此次收購感到非常滿意。正如我所說，所以我們發貨了——我們在第一季度整合了 20 天的業務，即大約 200 kt 的出貨量。所以它是 - 公司正在滿負荷運轉。我們正在整合我們現有的巴西業務。你在我們的平台上，我們提供了運行率——第二季度的年化運行率，EBITDA 水平約為 6 億歐元，這是第二季度的年化運行率。所以做得非常好。

So we'll move to the next question, please, from Rochus at Kepler.

那麼我們將轉到開普勒的 Rochus 提出的下一個問題。

Yes. Can we do 1 -- maybe 1 question on working capital. I think the Q1 build was less than what we have seen in previous Q1. Can you probably provide a little bit of a breakdown on the moving parts? Why it was more limited? Is this already a reflection of the production issues in Europe that you ship more from inventory? And maybe referring to that point, can you give us directionally some indication how we should think about the second quarter working capital. We see prices up, raw mets down, maybe further drawing down inventory. Yes, that would be my first part of the question?.

是的。我們可以做 1 - 也許 1 個關於營運資金的問題。我認為第一季度的構建比我們在上一季度看到的要少。你能提供一些運動部件的故障嗎？為什麼它更受限制？這是否已經反映了歐洲的生產問題，你們更多地從庫存中發貨？也許提到這一點，你能否給我們一些方向性的指示，我們應該如何考慮第二季度的營運資金。我們看到價格上漲，原料價格下跌，可能進一步減少庫存。是的，那將是我問題的第一部分？

Rochus. Look, the Q1 has been impacted by the incidents that we talked about in Spain and Dunkerque. But as we discussed, clearly, we were in a recovery mode, demand strong. We did destock from -- especially from Europe and you can see that, right? When you look at the production numbers in Q1 -- shipment number in Q1. It's very visible that we destocked, but that was just to make sure that we could follow the market, right? So maybe that's why you don't see a more meaningful impact in working capital.

刺槐。看，Q1 受到了我們在西班牙和敦刻爾克談到的事件的影響。但正如我們所討論的那樣，很明顯，我們處於復蘇模式，需求強勁。我們確實從 - 特別是從歐洲去庫存，你可以看到，對吧？當您查看第一季度的生產數量時——第一季度的發貨數量。我們去庫存是非常明顯的，但這只是為了確保我們能夠跟隨市場，對吧？所以也許這就是為什麼你沒有看到對營運資金產生更有意義的影響。

The main driver really was the higher shipments. And then we remain confident at this point that we're going to be able to release working capital in 2023.

主要驅動因素確實是更高的出貨量。然後我們在這一點上仍然有信心，我們將能夠在 2023 年釋放營運資金。

For quarter 2, look, I think we are seeing this more really neutral. We are not seeing significant investment in Q2. And for full year, our expectation is still to release especially as we still continue to work through the costs, high energy costs in our -- still impacting the costs of our metal stock. So as we work through that, so then our expectation is that our costs on the balance sheet should continue to come down, and that should provide support to working capital release. And then, of course, but as we know, this is really driven by what happened in the last weeks of the year to some extent. We know we have the holidays in December. So we'll see.

對於第二季度，看，我認為我們看到的更加中性。我們沒有看到第二季度有重大投資。對於全年，我們的預期仍在釋放，特別是因為我們仍在繼續努力解決成本問題，我們的高能源成本 - 仍在影響我們金屬庫存的成本。因此，在我們努力解決這個問題的過程中，我們的期望是我們資產負債表上的成本應該繼續下降，這應該為營運資金釋放提供支持。然後，當然，但正如我們所知，這在某種程度上確實是由今年最後幾週發生的事情所驅動的。我們知道我們在 12 月有假期。所以我們拭目以待。

So at this point, we still believe that we should see working capital release at the end of the year.

所以在這一點上，我們仍然認為我們應該在年底看到營運資金的釋放。

Okay. That makes sense. And then the second question is around ACIS. If I got that correctly on your release this morning. Obviously, Ukraine is now back to crude steel making. I think previously, it was more pig iron only. Can you provide an update on the main utilization rates on the mine on the steel part. And as, obviously, there's a bit of a step towards a bit more normality when shall we think about the breakeven in the Ukraine and also maybe at Kazakhstan, which also probably is still not where it has been before. So if you can talk -- walk-throughs these 2 elements of ACIS would be great?

好的。這就說得通了。然後第二個問題是關於 ACIS 的。如果我今天早上在你發布的新聞稿中理解正確的話。顯然，烏克蘭現在又回到了粗鋼生產。我想以前，它只是更多的生鐵。您能否提供有關鋼鐵部分礦山主要利用率的最新信息？很明顯，我們什麼時候可以考慮在烏克蘭和哈薩克斯坦實現收支平衡，這可能仍未達到以前的水平。所以，如果你能談談——演練 ACIS 的這兩個元素會很棒嗎？

Yes. Sure, Rochus. Well, as we discussed, Q4 was extremely challenging for Kazakhstan -- for Ukraine, right, because of the lack of energy power, so production was quite low. We have since seen an improvement of availability of power in the country. So we have actually restarted a second furnace now. So we are actually running now, and we will run for some time, at least 2 finances. So we have increased the crude steel capacity of Ukraine from about 20% to about 40%. So that's a good development. We will continue to sell pig iron. So we're not going to see all of that in our crude steel numbers because the intention is to continue to sell pig iron, it's a good product for us at the moment. But you will see an improvement also in crude steel and shipments as a result of the second furnace, so about 40%. And then we have, the mines also run quite well in quarter 1. We also increased production. So we all back to levels close to 40%. So I think good developments in Ukraine so far, that's good. So the company is not very far from being a breakeven at EBITDA level. It was actually positive in Q4 in terms of free cash, and it's only marginally negative in Q1. So I think the teams have been doing a great job in not only keeping the asset, running production, but also making sure that they keep what they can under control. And in Kazakhstan, I think the -- we are going through maintenance of 1 of our washeries. You can see in our release that we mentioned that costs have gone up because we are having -- we are forced to buy some external (inaudible). We are going through this maintenance work that should be resolved soon. And our expectation is that Kazakhstan will -- from now, we should continue to see improvements. I think we are optimistic that for quarter 2, we should see better numbers for CIS.

是的。當然，羅克斯。好吧，正如我們所討論的，第四季度對哈薩克斯坦來說極具挑戰性——對烏克蘭來說，因為缺乏能源，所以產量很低。從那以後，我們看到該國電力供應的改善。所以我們現在實際上已經重新啟動了第二個熔爐。所以我們現在其實是在跑，而且會跑一段時間，至少2個財務。所以我們把烏克蘭的粗鋼產能從20%左右提高到40%左右。所以這是一個很好的發展。我們將繼續銷售生鐵。所以我們不會在我們的粗鋼數據中看到所有這些，因為我們的目的是繼續銷售生鐵，目前對我們來說這是一個很好的產品。但由於第二座熔爐，您會看到粗鋼和出貨量也有所改善，約為 40%。然後我們有，礦山在第一季度也運行良好。我們還增加了產量。所以我們都回到了接近 40% 的水平。所以我認為到目前為止烏克蘭的良好發展，這很好。因此，該公司距離 EBITDA 水平的盈虧平衡不遠。就自由現金而言，第四季度實際上是正數，而第一季度只是略微負數。因此，我認為這些團隊不僅在保留資產、運行生產方面做得很好，而且還確保他們控制住一切。在哈薩克斯坦，我認為——我們正在維護我們的一家洗衣店。您可以在我們的新聞稿中看到，我們提到成本上升是因為我們有——我們被迫購買一些外部設備（聽不清）。我們正在進行這項維護工作，應該很快就會解決。我們期望哈薩克斯坦——從現在開始，我們應該繼續看到改善。我認為我們樂觀地認為，對於第二季度，我們應該會看到 CIS 的更好數字。

Okay. No, that sounds great.

好的。不，這聽起來很棒。

So we got 1 question remaining, Genuino, and it's from Bastian at Deutsche Bank.

所以我們還有 1 個問題，Genuino，它來自德意志銀行的 Bastian。

I just had a quick follow-up question on NAFTA, which I thought it was very impressive. Given that prices have dropped obviously in the first quarter. And I think you talked about volumes already, but what else has been driving it? And also by when do you expect the new hot rolling mill in Mexico will be fully ramped up, given that the market and also the temporary closure at AMSA seems very supportive? That is my question.

我剛剛有一個關於北美自由貿易協定的快速跟進問題，我認為這非常令人印象深刻。鑑於一季度價格明顯回落。我想你已經談到了銷量，但還有什麼在推動它？另外，考慮到市場和 AMSA 的臨時關閉似乎非常有利，您預計墨西哥的新熱軋廠何時全面投產？那是我的問題。

Yes. That's true, Bastian. We are -- the ramp-up is really going as per plan, right? And I think the teams are taking time now to develop products, getting the certification. So our expectation is that we will continue to ramp up in the second half.

是的。沒錯，巴斯蒂安。我們 - 增加真的按計劃進行，對嗎？而且我認為團隊現在正在花時間開發產品，獲得認證。因此，我們的預期是我們將在下半年繼續增加。

We will see, we should be moving from 60% to -- I hope we're going to be at least above 70%. So I think this is a process that will continue, but as I said, and the focus remains the same as in Q4, it's a product development, so getting the certification with the existing customers and continue to increase production. And you're right. So AMSA is really -- of course, it's not in our control, but helpful.

我們會看到，我們應該從 60% 移動到——我希望我們至少會超過 70%。所以我認為這是一個將繼續的過程，但正如我所說，重點與第四季度相同，它是產品開發，因此獲得現有客戶的認證並繼續增加產量。你是對的。所以 AMSA 確實——當然，它不受我們控制，但很有幫助。

In NAFTA, I'm not sure that I got your question, Bastian. So can you maybe elaborate that?

在北美自由貿易協定中，巴斯蒂安，我不確定我是否聽懂了你的問題。那麼你能詳細說明一下嗎？

Yes, sure. As I said, I was just very impressed by your strong performance in NAFTA. You obviously had very good volume. So that's an obvious driver. But then I guess, realized prices probably have still been coming down. I would have thought maybe not that much cost release someone was wondering what else other than volumes has been driving that very strong performance in the fourth first quarter when you actually had the down settlement on realized prices. And have there been any mix effect or what's been driving it?

是的，當然。正如我所說，您在北美自由貿易協定中的出色表現給我留下了深刻的印象。你顯然有很好的音量。所以這是一個明顯的驅動因素。但後來我猜，意識到價格可能仍在下降。我原以為可能沒有那麼多成本釋放有人想知道除了銷量之外還有什麼在第四個第一季度推動了非常強勁的表現，當時你實際上已經實現了價格結算。是否有任何混合效應或者是什麼在推動它？

Yes, I think 2 things. So we had a very good cost performance. Fixed cost performance was excellent. And then, of course, you also have a better contribution from our Texas facility, mostly higher shipments, including the shipments to our JV. So I would say, really, the cost performance was extremely good in NAFTA during the quarter, Bastian. And also, of course, the contribution from the hot strip mill. So you really start to see the benefits of that, right? So as we are running at this level of 600 -- 6% capacity. So that is really starting to be more and more visible in the results.

是的，我認為有兩件事。所以我們有很好的性價比。固定成本表現出色。然後，當然，我們得克薩斯州的工廠也為您做出了更好的貢獻，主要是更高的出貨量，包括對我們合資企業的出貨量。所以我想說，真的，本季度北美自由貿易協定的性價比非常好，巴斯蒂安。當然，還有熱帶鋼軋機的貢獻。所以你真的開始看到它的好處，對吧？因此，當我們以 600 的水平運行時——6% 的容量。所以這真的開始在結果中越來越明顯。

Okay. Perfect. And just on the fixed cost side, do you expect to retain that cost performance in the second quarter?

好的。完美的。就固定成本而言，您是否希望在第二季度保持這種成本效益？

Well, yes, we do.

嗯，是的，我們有。

So we actually have 1 last question that's coming from Max at ODDO.

所以我們實際上有 1 個來自 ODDO 的 Max 的問題。

Just a quick question on mining where costs have increased quite significantly in Q1 versus 2022. I wondered whether this was somehow isolated or if you expected this cost inflation to continue in the coming quarters in that segment?

只是一個關於採礦的快速問題，與 2022 年相比，第一季度的成本增加了相當多。我想知道這是否是孤立的，或者您是否預計這種成本通脹將在該領域的未來幾個季度繼續？

Max, you're looking at what is your reference? Is it quarter-on-quarter or?

Max，你在看你的參考是什麼？是環比還是？

Yes, quarter-on-quarter, yes, I think that sales have increased $200 million, but EBITDA increased just $100 million because of increasing costs?

是的，環比，是的，我認為銷售額增加了 2 億美元，但由於成本增加，EBITDA 只增加了 1 億美元？

Max, I think there are a couple of moving parts. I would say costs are not really the main driver. I would say it's more -- we have seen pellet premiums down right, quite significantly quarter-on-quarter. And as you know, a lot of our shipments from Mines Canada is pellets. So we lose on that. So I think those -- when I look at the evolution of the profitability that maybe there can be maybe some impact on -- coming from costs, but I would not say that they are the main drivers there.

Max，我認為有幾個活動部件。我會說成本並不是真正的主要驅動因素。我想說的更多——我們已經看到顆粒溢價下降了，環比大幅下降。如您所知，我們從 Mines Canada 運來的很多貨物都是顆粒。所以我們輸了。所以我認為那些 - 當我看到盈利能力的演變時可能會產生一些影響 - 來自成本，但我不會說它們是那裡的主要驅動因素。

Genuino, perhaps just on that last question, it's just worth emphasizing that it's within our mining segment, it's not necessarily a good idea to take sort of revenues, net EBITDA divided by turns and see that as the cost performance of the business because there can be changes from quarter-to-quarter on the sales on a delivered basis versus an FOB basis.

Genuino，也許就最後一個問題而言，值得強調的是，它屬於我們的採礦部門，將收入、淨 EBITDA 依次除以並將其視為業務的成本績效不一定是個好主意，因為可以以交付為基礎與以 FOB 為基礎的銷售額的季度變化。

So some quarters there can be a revenue increase because we're selling on a delivered basis, but then there's matching cost increase because we have to accommodate the freight cost as well.

因此，有些季度收入可能會增加，因為我們在交付的基礎上進行銷售，但隨後會出現相應的成本增加，因為我們還必須承擔運費。

So I think always the best thing is more just to look at the EBITDA and the EBITDA dilution relative to, like you said, how the iron ore price and the pellet premium has evolved rather than just taking revenue less EBITDA as your benchmark for costs. But that was our last question. So just to hand back to you, Genuino.

所以我認為最好的辦法總是更多地關注 EBITDA 和 EBITDA 稀釋，就像你說的那樣，鐵礦石價格和球團溢價是如何演變的，而不是僅僅將收入減去 EBITDA 作為成本基準。但這是我們的最後一個問題。因此，Genuino，只好交還給你。

Well, that's great. I just wanted to thank everybody, and hope to see you soon in our quarter 2 results. Thank you very much, guys.

好吧，那太好了。我只是想感謝大家，並希望很快在我們的第二季度結果中見到你。非常感謝你們。