MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc (MSM) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the MSC Industrial Supply fiscal 2025 third quarter conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加 MSC 工業供應 2025 財年第三季電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ryan Mills, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Ryan Mills。請繼續。

Thank you and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fiscal third quarter 2025 earnings call. Erik Gershwin, Chief Executive Officer, Martina McIsaac, President and Chief Operating Officer, and Kristen Actis-Grande, Chief Financial Officer, are on the call with me today. During today's call, we will refer to various financial data and the earnings presentation and operational statistics document, both of which can be found on our investor relations website.

謝謝大家，早安。歡迎參加我們的 2025 財年第三季財報電話會議。今天，執行長 Erik Gershwin、總裁兼營運長 Martina McIsaac 和財務長 Kristen Actis-Grande 與我一起進行了通話。在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考各種財務數據以及收益報告和營運統計文件，這些都可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

Let me reference our safe harbor statement found on slide 2 of the earnings presentation. Our comments on this call, as well as the supplemental information we are providing on the website, contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Securities Laws. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these statements.

讓我參考一下收益報告第 2 張投影片上的安全港聲明。我們對本次電話會議的評論以及我們在網站上提供的補充資訊包含美國證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與這些陳述預期的結果有重大差異。

Information about these risks are noted in our earnings press release and our other SEC filings. Lastly, during this call, we may refer to certain adjusted financial results which are non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the GAAP versus non-gap reconciliations in our presentation or on our website, which contain the reconciliations of the adjusted financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures.

有關這些風險的資訊已在我們的收益新聞稿和其他美國證券交易委員會文件中註明。最後，在本次電話會議中，我們可能會參考某些非 GAAP 指標的調整後財務結果。請參閱我們的簡報或網站上的 GAAP 與非差距調整表，其中包含調整後的財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的調整表。

I will now turn the call over to Erik.

現在我將電話轉給埃里克。

Thank you, Ryan. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On today's call, I'll cover our fiscal third quarter performance. I'll provide an update on our strategic initiatives and the state of MSC. Before wrapping up with my perspective on the operating environment. I'll hand the call over to Martina, who will give a progress update with our sales optimization initiative, our productivity efforts to lower our cost to serve, and our tariff management plan.

謝謝你，瑞安。大家早安，感謝大家的參與。在今天的電話會議上，我將介紹我們第三季的財務表現。我將提供有關我們的策略舉措和 MSC 現狀的最新資訊。在總結我對操作環境的看法之前。我會把電話轉給 Martina，她會報告我們的銷售優化計劃、為降低服務成本而做出的生產力努力以及我們的關稅管理計劃的進展。

Kristen will then review our fiscal third quarter financial performance in more detail. And provide our outlook for the fiscal fourth quarter before opening up the line for questions. As a reminder, throughout fiscal 2025, we've been focused on strengthening execution in three critical areas. One, re-energizing the core customer. Two, maintaining momentum in our high-tech solutions. And three, optimizing our cost to serve.

克里斯汀隨後將更詳細地回顧我們第三季的財務表現。在開放提問之前，請先提供我們對第四財季的展望。提醒一下，在整個 2025 財年，我們致力於加強三個關鍵領域的執行。一、重新激發核心客戶活力。二、維持高科技解決方案的發展動能。第三，優化我們的服務成本。

Our fiscal third quarter results reflect progress across these fronts. Average daily sales or ADS for the fiscal third quarter declined to 0.8% year-over-year. Which was slightly above the midpoint of our outlook. Additionally, average daily sales improved 7% quarter over quarter, exceeding historical 2Q to 3Q sequential averages.

我們的第三財季業績反映了這些方面的進展。第三財季平均每日銷售額或 ADS 年減 0.8%。這略高於我們預期的中點。此外，平均日銷售額較上季成長 7%，超過了歷史第二季至第三季的連續平均值。

Gross margins also came in at the higher end of our expectations. As we navigated tariff-driven inflation to produce positive price cost. This resulted in reported and adjusted operating margins of 8.5% and 9.0% respectively. Our adjusted operating margin was up 190 basis points sequentially, and at the midpoint of our outlook. While there's certainly plenty of room for improvement.

毛利率也達到了我們預期的較高水準。當我們控制關稅驅動的通貨膨脹以產生正價格成本。這使得報告和調整後的營業利潤率分別為 8.5% 和 9.0%。我們的調整後營業利潤率較上月上升了 190 個基點，處於我們預期的中間值。儘管確實還有很大的進步空間。

Our fiscal third quarter performance reflects progress in several areas. This includes an encouraging start to our newly launched growth initiative and sustain momentum in our high-tech solutions. I'll now provide some more color. First, re-energizing the core customer was one of our highest priorities entering fiscal '25. Early evidence began to emerge in fiscal 3Q as core customer daily sales were down 0.8% year-over-year.

我們的第三財季業績反映了多個領域的進步。這包括我們新推出的成長計劃的令人鼓舞的開端以及我們高科技解決方案的持續發展勢頭。我現在將提供更多顏色。首先，重新激發核心客戶的活力是我們進入 25 財年的首要任務之一。早期跡像在第三財季開始顯現，核心客戶日銷售額較去年同期下降 0.8%。

In line with results for the total company and our best performer sequentially. This was also supported by our recent web enhancements, which, as a reminder, were aimed at making it faster and easier for customers to do business with us, enhancing our product discovery platform, streamlining our customers buying journey. And increasing personalization to better meet specific customer needs.

與整個公司的結果以及我們連續表現最好的公司的結果一致。這也得到了我們最近的網路增強功能的支持，提醒一下，這些增強功能旨在使客戶更快、更輕鬆地與我們開展業務，增強我們的產品發現平台，簡化客戶的購買流程。並增加個人化以更好地滿足特定客戶的需求。

Also, as a reminder, these upgrades were rolled out towards the end of our fiscal second quarter. Since that time, direct traffic to mscdirect.com grew low double digits year over year and mid-single digits quarter-over-quarter. Additionally, we're seeing encouraging progress in our site conversion rate metrics. These improvements were supported by our enhanced marketing and sales ops, -- salesforce optimization efforts, which Martina will cover in more detail momentarily.

另外，提醒一下，這些升級是在我們第二財季末推出的。自那時起，mscdirect.com 的直接流量同比增長了低兩位數，環比增長了中等個位數。此外，我們看到網站轉換率指標取得了令人鼓舞的進展。這些改進得益於我們加強的行銷和銷售營運以及銷售隊伍優化工作，Martina 稍後將對此進行更詳細的介紹。

Second, as I mentioned earlier, we are maintaining momentum in high-touch solutions. On a year-over-year basis, we improved our implant program count by 23% and the installed base of our vending machines by 9%. Additionally, expanding our OEM product line remains a focus area where we continue making progress. Average daily sales in OEM improved low single digits year-over-year.

第二，正如我之前提到的，我們在高接觸解決方案方面保持著強勁勢頭。與去年同期相比，我們的植入項目數量增加了 23%，自動販賣機的安裝基數增加了 9%。此外，擴大我們的 OEM 產品線仍然是我們繼續取得進展的重點領域。OEM 的平均每日銷量較去年同期僅成長了個位數。

Moving on from the numbers. I'll highlight another priority. Which is building out our leadership depth. During the quarter, we added John Reichelt to the MSC team as our Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer. John joins Brian Bello and the rest of our existing technology leadership team. As they continue to deploy our portfolio of systems initiatives that improve operational efficiency and enhance the customer experience.

從數字開始。我將強調另一個優先事項。這正在增強我們的領導力深度。本季度，我們任命 John Reichelt 加入 MSC 團隊，擔任資深副總裁兼資訊長。約翰加入了布萊恩·貝洛和我們現有技術領導團隊的其他成員。他們繼續部署我們的系統計劃組合，以提高營運效率並增強客戶體驗。

This includes areas such as the web improvements, supply chain opportunities and the digital core initiative. Given John's track record at Trimark USA, Aramark and Proctor and Gamble, I'm confident that he will play a successful part in advancing MSC's business technologies and our overall capabilities. Switching now to the macro environment, as you can see on slide 4, conditions in our manufacturing and markets remain subdued.

這包括網路改進、供應鏈機會和數位核心計劃等領域。鑑於約翰在 Trimark USA、Aramark 和寶潔公司的業績，我相信他將在提升 MSC 的業務技術和整體能力方面發揮成功的作用。現在轉到宏觀環境，正如您在投影片 4 上看到的，我們的製造業和市場狀況仍然低迷。

Most of our primary end markets remain soft, including automotive and fabricated metals, which continue to contract as reflected in the IP index. Aerospace remains a bright spot with continued growth and a strong outlook. The more broad-based softness we're seeing is reflected in sentiment readings such as the MBI. After turning positive in March for the first time in nearly two years, MBI readings returned to negative numbers in April and May, reflecting customer caution around tariffs and general uncertainty.

我們的大多數主要終端市場仍然疲軟，包括汽車和金屬產品，正如 IP 指數所反映的那樣，它們繼續萎縮。航空航天仍然是一個亮點，持續增長且前景光明。我們看到的更廣泛的疲軟趨勢反映在 MBI 等情緒指數中。在 3 月近兩年來首次轉為正值之後，MBI 讀數在 4 月和 5 月又回落至負值，反映出客戶對關稅和普遍不確定性的謹慎態度。

And we saw this reflected in our own sales numbers. We experienced the soft April that went beyond Easter timing. Conversations in the field suggest that our customers took a temporary pause in activity. As they contemplated the impact of tariffs on their business. While the short lull in activity was followed by improving trends in May. And those that continued into June.

我們從自己的銷售數字中看到了這一點。我們經歷了復活節之後的溫和四月。現場對話表明我們的客戶暫時停止了活動。他們正在考慮關稅對其業務的影響。而短暫的經濟活動平靜期過後，5 月的趨勢有所改善。這種情況一直持續到六月。

There remains hesitancy and caution among our customer base around future production levels. That said, we are encouraged to see our performance GAAP improve against the overall IP index. As we outperformed in three of our top five end markets. Regardless of the macro conditions, we remain confident in the opportunity in front of us and steadfast in the commitment to our plan.

我們的客戶群對於未來的生產水準仍然存在猶豫和謹慎。話雖如此，我們很高興看到我們的 GAAP 業績相對於整體 IP 指數有所提高。我們在五大終端市場中的三個市場表現出色。無論宏觀條件如何，我們仍然對眼前的機會充滿信心，並堅定不移地致力於我們的計劃。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Martina.

說完這些，我現在將電話轉給 Martina。

Thank you, Erik, and good morning, everyone. I will begin by covering our growth initiatives in greater detail. As Erik mentioned, the expansion of our solutions footprint continued in the fiscal third quarter. We are also starting to see positive early indicators from our seller’s effectiveness and coverage initiatives. Public sector, which was the first portion of the business to complete our coverage initiative continues to grow.

謝謝你，艾瑞克，大家早安。我將首先更詳細地介紹我們的成長計劃。正如艾瑞克所提到的，我們的解決方案足跡在第三財季繼續擴大。我們也開始從賣家的效率和覆蓋率措施中看到正面的早期指標。公共部門是我們完成覆蓋計劃的第一個業務部分，並且該部門仍在繼續成長。

The biggest change in our fiscal third quarter was in the expanded coverage in core field sales. The number of customer location touches logged by field sales grew low double digits year-over-year and low single digits quarter-over-quarter. Improvement in these areas is reflected in our sales per rep per day trend, which was down low single digits year-over-year compared to down high single digits in the first half of the fiscal year.

我們第三財季最大的變化是核心領域銷售覆蓋範圍的擴大。現場銷售記錄的客戶位置接觸次數較去年同期成長了低兩位數，較上季成長了低個位數。這些領域的改善反映在我們每位銷售代表每天的銷售額趨勢上，與本財年上半年的高個位數下降相比，該趨勢同比下降了低個位數。

Our marketing campaign, which encompasses both digital and personal outreach, is also off to a positive start. The return on digital product marketing spend showed an improvement in the 20% range quarter-over-quarter. This is also reflected in the performance of certain KPIs on mscdirect.com, such as stronger direct traffic and conversion rates, as previously mentioned by Erik.

我們的行銷活動涵蓋數位和個人推廣，也取得了積極的開端。數位產品行銷支出的回報率比上一季提高了 20%。這也反映在 mscdirect.com 某些 KPI 的表現上，例如更強勁的直接流量和轉換率，正如 Erik 之前所提到的。

I'm also encouraged by the daily sales trend on the web as we began to see the year-over-year performance improved in fiscal 3Q compared to trends over the past several quarters. On slide 5, you can see our tariff mitigation plans and our direct COGS exposure across the globe. While the situation remains fluid, we are confident in our ability to mitigate the potential impact of tariffs.

網路上的每日銷售趨勢也讓我感到鼓舞，因為我們開始看到與過去幾季的趨勢相比，第三財季的年比業績有所改善。在第 5 張投影片上，您可以看到我們的關稅減免計劃以及我們在全球範圍內的直接 COGS 風險。儘管情況依然不穩定，但我們有信心有能力減輕關稅的潛在影響。

We intend to continue to work extremely closely with our suppliers and customers while maintaining our core pricing principles. Since our tariff-related price increase in late March, we took minimal further actions during the quarter. In the last couple of days, we took a more broad-based price increase, and we will evaluate additional moves as warranted.

我們打算繼續與我們的供應商和客戶密切合作，同時保持我們的核心定價原則。自 3 月底我們上調與關稅相關的價格以來，本季我們採取的進一步行動很少。在過去的幾天裡，我們進行了更廣泛的價格上調，並將根據需要評估進一步的措施。

We continue to view tariffs as an opportunity to strengthen our relationships with customers and MSC's position in the marketplace. We have a proven track record of identifying opportunities that deliver meaningful productivity to customers. We're doubling down on this by increasing the number of cost savings assessments performed in the field for both existing and new customers.

我們繼續將關稅視為加強與客戶的關係以及 MSC 在市場中的地位的機會。我們在發現可為客戶帶來有意義生產力的機會方面有著良好的記錄。我們正在加倍努力，增加針對現有客戶和新客戶現場執行的成本節約評估次數。

We are also providing alternative solutions for products impacted by tariffs, which plays well to the depth and breadth of our product assortment. As a result, our maiden USA offering is beginning to gain traction as the daily sales of these products were up year-over-year and outperformed total company sales on a sequential basis.

我們也為受關稅影響的產品提供替代解決方案，這對我們產品組合的深度和廣度有很大幫助。因此，我們首次在美國推出的產品開始受到關注，因為這些產品的日銷量較去年同期成長，並且連續超過了公司總銷量。

We intend to continue using this as a lever to gain share of wallet and attract new customers. And lastly, we continue to make progress on our network optimization initiatives. As a reminder, this work is focused on ensuring we have the right inventory close to customers. We seek to optimize working capital, freight and our distribution footprint. We remain on track to deliver $10 million to $15 million in annualized savings by fiscal year '26.

我們打算繼續利用這一點作為槓桿來獲得市場份額並吸引新客戶。最後，我們的網路優化計劃持續取得進展。提醒一下，這項工作的重點是確保我們在靠近客戶的地方擁有合適的庫存。我們力求優化營運資金、貨運和分銷足跡。我們仍有望在 26 財年實現每年 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元的年度節省。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Kristen.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給克里斯汀。

Thank you, Martina, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 6, where you can see key metrics for the fiscal third quarter on both a reported and adjusted basis. Fiscal third quarter sales of $971 million declined 0.8% year-over-year as lower volumes were largely offset by benefits from price of 80 basis points in acquisitions, which contributed another 60 basis points.

謝謝你，瑪蒂娜，大家早安。請翻到投影片 6，您可以看到報告和調整後的第三財季關鍵指標。第三財季銷售額為 9.71 億美元，年減 0.8%，因為銷售量下降在很大程度上被收購價格上漲 80 個基點帶來的好處所抵消，而收購價格上漲又貢獻了 60 個基點。

On a sequential basis, average daily sales improved 7% quarter-over-quarter and outperformed historical sequential averages. The primary drivers of our strong sequential performance were higher volumes and a small benefit from price. Looking at average daily sales by customer type, we were encouraged to see improvement in both the year-over-year and two-year stack performance of our core and national account customers.

以環比計算，日均銷售額比上一季成長 7%，且超過歷史環比平均值。我們強勁的連續業績表現的主要驅動力是更高的銷售量和略微的價格優勢。從客戶類型的平均每日銷售額來看，我們很高興地看到，核心客戶和全國客戶的年比和兩年累積表現都有所改善。

Core customers declined 0.8% year-over-year while national accounts declined 1.7%. Public sector continued its trend of delivering year-over-year growth and improved 2.4% in the quarter. As a reminder, sales in the public sector can be lumpy in nature. However, we expect growth to continue. Sequentially, core and other customers was the best performer was 8.3% growth followed by improvement of 6.2% in the public sector and 5.8% in national accounts.

核心客戶年減 0.8%，而國民帳下降 1.7%。公共部門持續保持年成長趨勢，本季成長 2.4%。需要提醒的是，公共部門的銷售本質上可能是不穩定的。然而，我們預計成長將持續。依序為，核心客戶和其他客戶表現最佳，成長 8.3%，其次是公共部門成長 6.2%，國民帳戶成長 5.8%。

Moving to our performance in vending and implants. We continue to expand the installed base of both solutions to 399 in-plant programs and more than 28,700 vending machines at quarter end. Average daily sales through vending in the third quarter were up roughly 8% year-over-year and represented approximately 19% of total company net sales.

轉向我們在自動販賣機和植入物方面的表現。我們繼續將這兩種解決方案的安裝基礎擴大到季度末的 399 個廠內程序和超過 28,700 台自動販賣機。第三季自動販賣機的日均銷售額年增約 8%，約占公司淨銷售額的 19%。

Sales to our customers with an in-plant program grew 10% year-over-year and coincidentally also represented approximately 19% of total company net sales. Moving to profitability for the fiscal third quarter. Gross margin of 41% improved 10 basis points year-over-year as benefits from price inclusive of mix more than offset headwinds from higher cost inventories working through the P&L and lower-margin acquisitions.

我們針對採用廠內專案客戶的銷售額年增了 10%，同時也占公司淨銷售額的約 19%。第三財季獲利。毛利率為 41%，較上年同期提高 10 個基點，因為包含產品組合的價格收益足以抵銷損益表和低利潤收購帶來的高成本庫存阻力。

Sequentially, this resulted in flat gross margins quarter-over-quarter. Operating expenses in the quarter were approximately $312 million on a reported basis. On an adjusted basis, operating expenses stepped up approximately $22 million year-over-year to $311 million for the quarter. The primary driver of the year-over-year increase was higher personnel-related costs.

因此，這導致毛利率與上一季持平。據報道，本季的營運費用約為 3.12 億美元。經調整後，本季營運費用年增約 2,200 萬美元，達到 3.11 億美元。年比成長的主要原因是人員相關成本的增加。

Combined with slightly lower sales year-over-year, this resulted in a roughly 250 basis point step-up in adjusted operating expense as a percentage of sales for the quarter. Sequentially, adjusted operating expenses were approximately $9 million higher compared to 2Q. Approximately $7 million of this was driven by higher variable expenses associated with the increase in sales.

加上銷售額較去年同期略有下降，導致本季調整後營業費用佔銷售額的百分比上升了約 250 個基點。調整後的營運費用與第二季相比增加了約 900 萬美元。其中約 700 萬美元是由於銷售額增加導致的變動費用增加。

The remaining balance of approximately $2 million was driven primarily by the combination of higher medical plan expenses and increased outbound freight costs associated with certain public sector customers, which offset benefits from higher productivity. On a percentage of sales basis, adjusted operating expenses decreased 180 basis points sequentially.

剩餘約 200 萬美元的餘額主要是由於醫療計劃費用增加以及與某些公共部門客戶相關的出站運費增加，這抵消了生產率提高的好處。以銷售額百分比計算，調整後的營業費用較上季下降 180 個基點。

Reported operating margin for the quarter was 8.5% compared to 10.9% in the prior year. On an adjusted basis, operating margin came in at the midpoint of our outlook at 9% and declined 240 basis points compared to the prior year. We delivered GAAP EPS of $1.02 compared to $1.27 in the prior year quarter. On an adjusted basis, EPS was $1.08 compared to $1.33 in the prior year.

本季報告的營業利潤率為 8.5%，而去年同期為 10.9%。經調整後，營業利益率達到我們預期的中間值 9%，較上年下降 240 個基點。我們的 GAAP EPS 為 1.02 美元，而去年同期為 1.27 美元。經調整後，每股收益為 1.08 美元，去年同期為 1.33 美元。

Now let's turn to slide 7 to review our balance sheet and cash flow performance. We continue to maintain a healthy balance sheet with net debt of approximately $449 million, representing roughly 1.1 times EBITDA. Capital expenditures declined approximately $8 million year-over-year to $21 million. This resulted in a free cash flow conversion of approximately 134% in the fiscal third quarter and 129% fiscal year-to-date.

現在讓我們翻到第 7 張投影片來回顧我們的資產負債表和現金流表現。我們繼續維持健康的資產負債表，淨債務約 4.49 億美元，約 EBITDA 的 1.1 倍。資本支出較去年同期下降約 800 萬美元至 2,100 萬美元。這導致第三財季自由現金流轉換率約為 134%，本財年迄今自由現金流轉換率約為 129%。

Turning to capital allocation on slide 8. Our highest priority remains organic investment to fuel growth and operational efficiencies. We repurchased approximately 117,000 shares during the quarter and approximately 494,000 shares fiscal year-to-date. In line with the dividend, we returned approximately $56 million to shareholders in fiscal 3Q and $181 million fiscal year-to-date.

轉向投影片 8 上的資本配置。我們的首要任務仍然是透過有機投資來促進成長和提高營運效率。我們在本季回購了約 117,000 股，本財年迄今回購了約 494,000 股。與股利一致，我們在第三財季向股東返還了約 5,600 萬美元，本財年迄今已返還了 1.81 億美元。

Moving to our expectations for the fiscal fourth quarter on slide 9, with preliminary sales for the fiscal month of June trending approximately flat. We expect average daily sales to be down 0.5% to up 1.5% compared to the prior year and to be approximately flat compared to 3Q at the midpoint. Our expected range takes into consideration benefits from price and early momentum in our growth initiatives continuing into the fiscal fourth quarter, coupled with continued caution with respect to demand as the tariff deadline approaches.

轉到投影片 9 上我們對第四財季的預期，6 月的初步銷售趨勢基本上持平。我們預計日均銷售額將比上年下降 0.5% 至成長 1.5%，與第三季中期相比大致持平。我們的預期範圍考慮了價格帶來的好處和我們成長計畫的早期勢頭持續到第四財季，再加上隨著關稅截止日期臨近對需求的持續謹慎。

Under this revenue scenario, we expect our adjusted operating margin in the fiscal fourth quarter to be between 8.5% and 9%, driven by the following assumptions. Fiscal Q4 gross margins to perform better than the historical seasonal decline of 40 basis points and to be 40.9%, plus or minus 20 basis points. And a sequential decline in adjusted operating expenses of approximately $2 million to $4 million, largely driven by lower variable expenses on lower sales, increasing productivity and lower outbound freight expense which will be partially offset by an increase in medical plan expense.

在這種收入情境下，我們預期第四財季調整後的營業利潤率將在 8.5% 至 9% 之間，這得益於以下假設。第四財季毛利率將優於歷史季節性下降 40 個基點，達到 40.9%，上下浮動 20 個基點。調整後的營運費用環比下降約 200 萬美元至 400 萬美元，主要原因是銷售額下降、生產力提高和出站運費降低導致的變動費用降低，但醫療計劃費用的增加將部分抵消這一影響。

Moving to our guided metrics for the full year. There are a few tweaks to assumptions as we move closer to the end of the fiscal year. Depreciation and amortization expense is likely to be at the lower end of the $90 million to $95 million range. Capital expenditures are also expected to be at the lower end of the $100 million to $110 million range.

轉向我們全年的指導指標。隨著財政年度接近尾聲，我們對一些假設進行了一些調整。折舊和攤銷費用可能在 9,000 萬美元至 9,500 萬美元的低端。預計資本支出也將在 1 億美元至 1.1 億美元範圍內。

And lastly, given strong cash generation fiscal year-to-date that is expected to continue into the fiscal fourth quarter, we now expect free cash flow conversion to be approximately 120% for the full year compared to our prior expectation of approximately 100%. And with that, we will open the line for Q&A.

最後，鑑於本財年迄今強勁的現金產生能力，預計將持續到第四財季，我們現在預計全年自由現金流轉換率將達到約 120%，而我們先前預期約為 100%。接下來，我們將開通問答熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Ryan Cooke, Wolfe Research.

（操作員指示）Ryan Cooke，Wolfe Research。

I'm hoping we could start with the price outlook for 4Q and into next year. You called out 80 basis points of contribution this quarter. So how should we be thinking about incremental price from those actions that you took late in 3Q? And I think that the tariff exposure as you share on slide 5, would pencil out to roughly a mid-single-digit increase across the portfolio to offset current tariff rates. So I'm curious if that's the right way to be thinking about price acceleration from here.

我希望我們可以從第四季和明年的價格展望開始。您本季的貢獻率為 80 個基點。那麼，我們應該如何看待您在第三季末採取的行動所帶來的增量價格呢？我認為，正如您在第 5 張投影片中分享的那樣，關稅風險將導致整個投資組合出現大約中等個位數的成長，以抵消目前的關稅稅率。所以我很好奇這是否是從現在開始思考價格加速的正確方法。

Right, so I'll talk about the outlook and then Kristen gives some of the numbers. So look, overall, what you're hearing from us is, since we last spoke to you, which if you remember, was right on the cusp of liberation day, we had taken some surgical increases. And obviously, there's been a lot of toing and froing since then. But in general, we are seeing inflationary pressures built from our suppliers.

好的，我將談論前景，然後克里斯汀會給出一些數字。所以，總的來說，您從我們這裡聽到的是，自從我們上次與您談話以來，如果您還記得的話，當時正值解放日即將來臨，我們採取了一些手術式的增加。顯然，自那時起，雙方就一直反覆交鋒。但總體而言，我們看到來自供應商的通膨壓力。

And Martina mentioned just in the last few days, a more broad-based increase, which is the first time we've taken a more broad-based increase. In terms of outlook beyond that. So obviously, that will have an impact on Q4 that will carry into Q1. It's so tough to give you a longer-term perspective because it does feel like things regularly.

就在幾天前，Martina 提到了更廣泛的成長，這是我們第一次採取更廣泛的成長。就此而言，前景更為廣闊。顯然，這將對第四季產生影響，並延續到第一季。給你一個更長遠的視角是非常困難的，因為它確實感覺像事情經常發生一樣。

We're staying in constant contact with customers and suppliers. And what you heard is we're going to continue to be agile. And if there is opportunity and, or need to move again, we will. In terms of size, I'll let Kristen add any color, but it's more like a -- in terms of the increase we just took, if that's what you're referencing, more like a low single-digit increase as opposed to mid-single digit.

我們與客戶和供應商保持持續的聯繫。您所聽到的是，我們將繼續保持敏捷。如果有機會或需要再次行動，我們就會這麼做。就尺寸而言，我會讓克里斯汀添加任何顏色，但它更像是 - 就我們剛才採取的增長而言，如果這是你所指的，更像是一個低個位數增長，而不是中等個位數增長。

Yes. And Brian, that's totally agreed everything Erik said. The other thing I would just add maybe to zoom out for the top line guide overall for Q4 to talk about how price fits within that, like if you look at the midpoint of the guide, that's up 50 bps year-over-year, and then it's about flattish sequentially. So ahead of the historical Q3 to Q4 averages. And then a couple of points to add some details of that.

是的。布萊恩，我完全同意艾瑞克所說的一切。我想補充的另一件事可能是縮小第四季度的整體頂級指南，討論價格如何適應它，例如，如果您查看指南的中點，則同比增長 50 個基點，然後環比持平。因此高於歷史第三季至第四季的平均值。然後添加幾點細節。

If you look at the offsets, you'll see that June was flat or down 1% if you're looking at the month-over-month sequential. And then at the midpoint, what that means for July and August is we're up 1% sequentially, and that's about in line with historical averages. So with respect to the price that Erik referred to then, you would see a slight increase in contribution for that as you move through the fourth quarter.

如果你看一下抵銷額，你會發現，如果你看的是環比數據，那麼 6 月的銷售額持平或下降了 1%。然後在中點，這意味著 7 月和 8 月我們環比增長 1%，這與歷史平均水平大致一致。因此，就艾瑞克當時提到的價格而言，隨著進入第四季度，您會看到其貢獻略有增加。

Although in addition to sizing at low single digits, somewhere in that range, depending on where you put the guide, I would caution that we don't get a full two months of price realization on that. Some of our contracted customers have like a holding period. So I definitely recommend being cautious about the magazine for price in the fourth quarter.

儘管除了尺寸處於低個位數之外，在這個範圍內的某個地方，取決於你把指南放在哪裡，我要提醒的是，我們無法獲得整整兩個月的價格實現情況。我們的一些簽約客戶有一個持有期。因此，我絕對建議對第四季的雜誌價格保持謹慎。

And then I guess the last thing I would just add is that with respect to volume then, if you think about where that puts volume in the guide, we're very encouraged by what we saw in Q3. We're going to talk -- we talked in the prepared remarks about some of the green shoots that we're seeing, but definitely trying to take sort of an overall cautious approach given the broader uncertainty that's out there.

然後我想我最後要補充的是，關於交易量，如果你考慮一下交易量在指南中的位置，我們對第三季看到的情況感到非常鼓舞。我們將在準備好的演講中談論我們看到的一些復甦跡象，但考慮到存在更廣泛的不確定性，我們肯定會採取一種整體謹慎的態度。

Okay. That's very clear and all makes sense. Then I guess maybe we could pivot over to the 4Q margin outlook, which implies a bit better than usual seasonality with op margins flat to down 50 basis points Q-over-Q. I think the historical trend is down at least one point, and it seems like this is mainly from the better gross margin performance that you're expecting.

好的。這非常清楚，而且一切都有道理。那麼我想也許我們可以轉向第四季度的利潤率前景，這意味著季節性因素會比平常好一點，營業利潤率環比持平或下降 50 個基點。我認為歷史趨勢至少下降了一個點，這似乎主要源於您預期的更好的毛利率表現。

So maybe you could just talk about the moving pieces there. Anything we need to think about in terms of timing for price versus cost? Like does this margin tailwind flip the other way once COGS flows through P&L? Or any detail there would help.

所以也許你可以只談論那裡的移動部分。在價格與成本的時機方面我們需要考慮什麼？例如，一旦 COGS 流入損益表，利潤率順風是否會反過來？或者任何細節都會有幫助。

Yes, sure. Yes. So to your point, 40.9% plus or minus 20 basis points, so kind of flattish to the Q3 gross margin number of 41% even -- and that is, to your point, better than historical sequential decline we see, which is about 40 bps down. A few points within that to think about. So one of the drivers of why we're typically down sequentially is customer mix, specifically the public sector business, which we are expecting to be strong in the fourth quarter.

是的，當然。是的。所以正如您所說，40.9% 加減 20 個基點，與第三季度的 41% 毛利率持平 - 也就是說，正如您所說，這比我們看到的歷史連續下降要好，歷史連續下降大約為 40 個基點。其中有幾點值得思考。因此，我們通常環比下降的原因之一是客戶結構，特別是公共部門業務，我們預計該業務在第四季度將會表現強勁。

With respect to core, we're expecting to see continued sequential improvement, but not yet big enough that it's kind of moving the needle against that public sector. change in performance Q3 to Q4. And then we talked about price, of course, so you're going to pick up a bit of increased contribution from price sequentially. But I heard you mention cost in your question.

就核心而言，我們預計會看到持續的連續改善，但改善幅度不足以對公共部門產生影響。第三季至第四季的業績變動。然後我們當然討論了價格，因此您將會逐漸從價格中獲得一些增加的貢獻。但我聽到您在問題中提到了成本。

We are absolutely starting to see cost increases come online in the fourth quarter. So a pretty narrow price cost spread sequentially from Q3. So I said a lot, but to summarize, you've got a mix headwind, you've got some small price cost improvement. And then the last thing I would add is that we're assuming some productivity that would come online sequentially within the fourth quarter in the -- that would be in the gross margin line. So to whatever extent those three main drivers move that will dictate where we fall on the guide.

我們絕對會開始看到第四季成本增加。因此從第三季開始價格成本差距就相當小了。我說了很多，但總結一下，你遇到了混合逆風，價格成本有一些小的改善。最後我要補充的是，我們假設一些生產力將在第四季度內陸續上線 - 這將在毛利率範圍內。因此，無論這三個主要驅動因素如何變化，它都將決定我們的指導方針。

Tommy Moll, Stephens.

湯米·莫爾，史蒂芬斯。

You referenced supplier price increases a few times. And I'm just curious if you can share more there. There's been a lot that's changed since you referenced Erik, there in late March, where you announced the first round of increases. But what do those conversations look like today? And do you feel like you kind of know what you need to know about what's coming?

您多次提到供應商價格上漲。我只是好奇您是否可以分享更多。自從您在三月底提到埃里克並宣布第一輪加薪以來，情況已經發生了很多變化。但今天這些對話是什麼樣的呢？您是否覺得自己已經了解即將發生的事情？

Or is there a lot still influx and you could look up and we had this conversation a quarter from now and there's a whole new round of supplier increases to contend with.

或者是否仍有大量湧入，您可以查看一下，我們在一個季度後進行了這次對話，並且將要應對新一輪的供應商成長。

Yes, Tommy, I'll start, and then certainly, Martina can fill in anything that I don't cover. The first thing I'd say, I'd hesitate at any point during this process to say that we have clear line of sight into what's coming or have it all figured out. I don't think we do. What I would say is that the discussions with suppliers are ongoing and they're fluid. It's not like it's a one and done.

是的，湯米，我先開始，然後當然，瑪蒂娜可以補充我沒有涉及的任何內容。我想說的第一件事是，在這個過程的任何時候，我都會猶豫是否要說我們清楚地了解即將發生的事情或已經把一切都弄清楚了。我認為我們沒有。我想說的是，與供應商的討論正在進行中，而且進展不定。這並不是一次性的事。

This is an ongoing topic given the headlines, as you could imagine. What I would say, and we tried to get across in the prepared remarks and Martina put some color on this, but if you go back to where we were a quarter ago, we were looking at more surgical increases, specifically by surgical, what we mean is specifically products related to direct sourcing from tariff-driven companies -- countries, i.e., China.

正如您所想像的，從頭條新聞來看，這是一個持續不斷的話題。我想說的是，我們試圖在準備好的發言中表達這一點，Martina 也對此做了一些說明，但如果你回顧一下一個季度前的情況，我們當時正在考慮進行更大幅度的增長，具體來說，更大幅度的增長，我們的意思是專門針對與從關稅驅動型公司（國家，即中國）直接採購相關的產品。

What's happening now is we are seeing more general inflationary pressures. Many of our suppliers are manufacturing all over the world. They're sourcing products all over the world. And so they are feeling cost pressures. And so there's just a broader base, we're seeing more of kind of what we would see in a typical inflationary cycle with list price increases as an example. And that's what we've just brought to market in the last couple of days.

現在的情況是，我們看到了更普遍的通膨壓力。我們的許多供應商在世界各地進行生產。他們在世界各地採購產品。因此他們感受到成本壓力。因此，這只是一個更廣泛的基礎，我們看到更多在典型的通膨週期中會看到的情況，以標價上漲為例。這就是我們最近幾天才剛推向市場的產品。

Sure. I'll ask a follow-up here probably for Kristen on this one. we're a quarter ahead of when you'll guide for fiscal '26, Kristin, but to the extent you can level set us on margin compares for '26 over '25, that's always helpful whether quantitative or qualitative, but I'm just thinking in terms of the gross margin percentage and then, in particular, any big OpEx drivers, positive or negative, that you can already identify for next year?

當然。我會在這裡向 Kristen 詢問後續情況。 Kristin，我們比您預計的 26 財年財報提前了一個季度，但如果您能將 26 年的利潤率與 25 年進行比較，這總是有幫助的，無論是定量的還是定性的，但我只是在考慮毛利率百分比，然後，特別是，您已經可以確定明年的任何大的運營支出，無論是正面的還是負面的？

Yes. Tom, maybe I'll start here, and I'll let Kristen add color specifically on gross margin, but sort of like if I zoom out from gross margin and just look at the drivers. And again, what I would say is we're cautious right now to not give too much color on anything that could happen even a quarter out, given how much -- how work it is and how much uncertainty.

是的。湯姆，也許我會從這裡開始，然後讓克里斯汀專門為毛利率添加一些顏色，但如果我從毛利率中縮小範圍，只看驅動因素。再說一次，我想說的是，考慮到工作量和不確定性，我們現在要謹慎，不要對一個季度後可能發生的事情給予太多評價。

So we'll give a lot more color next quarter. But if I sort of walk down the P&L lines and give you some perspective there. I think what you're seeing from us right now on the revenue line, I'd characterize it as stabilization and that stabilization more or less sequentially year-over-year. Look, we're encouraged, as we said, around some green shoots that we're seeing, particularly the core customer Tommy, we did see a nice sequential improvement there that we can track back to things that we've been talking about that are in flight.

因此下個季度我們將提供更多顏色。但如果我沿著損益表走一圈，並給你一些看法。我認為您現在從我們的收入線上看到的情況是穩定的，而且這種穩定與去年同期相比或多或少是連續的。你看，正如我們所說的那樣，我們感到鼓舞，我們看到了一些積極的跡象，特別是核心客戶湯米，我們確實看到了一個很好的連續改善，我們可以追溯到我們一直在談論的正在進行的事情。

So we're encouraged, but it's still early. So on the revenue line, it's stabilization between the core customer, the initiatives and then maybe the dust settling on the macro, there is some opportunity. And we hope we can do better. But right now, it's stabilization. You had mentioned gross margin. And I think it's kind of a similar right now, a similar theme.

所以我們很受鼓舞，但現在還為時過早。因此，在收入方面，核心客戶、各項措施之間的穩定，以及宏觀層面塵埃落定之後，可能會存在一些機會。我們希望我們能夠做得更好。但現在，情況正在穩定下來。您提到了毛利率。我認為現在的情況很類似，主題也類似。

What you've seen from us through the year is it's a pretty stable picture. Again, given what we just took in pricing, that could be an encouraging data point there could potentially be more behind it, depending upon how things go. And then the other thing on margin that we're going to keep our eye on is mix. Certainly, if progress that we saw in Q3 continues on the core customer that could help relieve what's been a historic mix headwind.

您從我們這一年的表現可以看出，情況相當穩定。再次，考慮到我們剛剛採取的定價措施，這可能是一個令人鼓舞的數據點，並且可能還有更多的潛在數據，具體取決於事情的進展。然後，我們要關注的另一個保證金問題是混合。當然，如果我們在第三季度看到的進展繼續在核心客戶身上延續，這將有助於緩解歷史性的混合逆風。

So cautiously optimistic on gross margin but a lot of moving parts. And then on the OpEx front, what we've been talking about for a while now is we've had some pretty heavy step-ups in OpEx over the last two fiscal years. And what we have said is that as we look to '26, we expected some of those line items that were driving the increases to moderate. And so increases but moderating, and that's still how we see it.

因此，對毛利率持謹慎樂觀的態度，但仍有許多不確定因素。然後在營運支出方面，我們一直在談論的是，在過去兩個財年中，我們的營運支出有了相當大的成長。我們說過，展望26年，我們預計推動成長的一些項目將會放緩。因此雖然有所增加，但速度有所減緩，我們仍然這麼認為。

And then, of course, the added element there is the productivity initiatives that Martina touched on that are starting to build. So we talked about the $10 million to $15 million in annualized run rate. We're on track there. We have talked about that there is quite a bit in the pipeline behind that. That the team, Martin and team are executing upon.

當然，還有一個附加因素，那就是 Martina 提到的正在開始建立的生產力舉措。因此，我們討論了 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元的年化運行率。我們一切進展順利。我們已經討論過，這背後還有相當多的事情正在進行中。馬丁和他的團隊正在執行這項任務。

So we do see opportunity there to level out the rate of OpEx increase as compared to the last couple of years. So you put that together. And again, it's really early, and we'll come back with more. But we would expect starting in '26 that you could expect a more typical kind of incremental margin picture for the company.

因此，與過去幾年相比，我們確實看到了平衡營運支出成長率的機會。所以你把它們放在一起。再說一次，現在還為時過早，我們會再回來發布更多資訊。但我們預計，從 26 年開始，公司的利潤率將呈現更為典型的增量趨勢。

Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

瑞安·默克爾、威廉·布萊爾。

So the first question I have is just on the average daily sales trends and this might be hard to answer, but when I look at April down three and then July, August kind of guidance implies up one, this is average daily sales. the pieces that drove the improvement, how much of it was the macro, Erik, I think you said in April and May was slow, but has since improved a bit. And then you have pricing and then you have initiatives. It'd be helpful just to hear from you the sources and how much each has contributed.

所以我的第一個問題是關於平均每日銷售趨勢，這可能很難回答，但當我看到 4 月份下降了 3%，而 7 月份和 8 月份的指導意味著上升了 1%，這就是平均每日銷售量。推動改善的因素有多少是宏觀因素，埃里克，我想你說過 4 月和 5 月比較慢，但後來有所改善。然後你有定價，然後你有計劃。聽聽你們的消息來源以及每個人的貢獻將會很有幫助。

I'll start, Ryan. I mean it's tough to -- this is a tough one to break apart. What I'll tell you over the three, as you move through -- so we had talked about on our last call that we took in a late March pricing -- price increase. Other than that, price was not really a variable in the left. So if you're looking at sort of the growth rate the last couple of months, pricing wouldn't be a major variable.

我先開始，瑞安。我的意思是，這很難——這很難打破。隨著你們的進展，我將告訴你們這三個問題 — — 我們在上次電話會議上討論過，我們在三月底進行了定價 — — 價格上漲。除此之外，價格其實並不是左邊的一個變數。因此，如果你觀察過去幾個月的成長率，定價就不會是一個主要變數。

We're talking about the last couple of days for any sort of meaningful movement. So really what you're left with, if pricing is not a wild swing there. You're looking at macro and initiatives. And we tried to give you some color on the initiative progress. It's not a perfectly straight line, but it's been encouraging. We do think that there has been some influence on those numbers on the macro.

我們正在談論過去幾天發生的任何有意義的運動。那麼，如果價格沒有大幅波動，您真正剩下的是什麼呢？您正在觀察宏觀和舉措。我們試圖向您介紹該計劃的進展。這不是一條完美的直線，但卻令人鼓舞。我們確實認為這些數字對宏觀經濟產生了一些影響。

It wasn't surprising to us that post liberation day, uncertainty for customers is generally not their friend or our friends and people pause. So not shocking that April would have been soft on top of that. Remember, we did have an Easter timing headwind in April, and then begin to ease May and June. So I would expect the swings month-to-month probably as much as anything macro as it was the initiatives, which are kind of like a build in the numbers.

我們並不驚訝，解放日之後，不確定性對顧客來說通常不是他們的朋友，我們的朋友和人們都會停下來。因此，四月份的業績表現疲軟也就不足為奇了。請記住，我們在四月確實遇到了復活節時間的不利因素，然後在五月和六月開始緩解。因此，我預計月度波動可能與宏觀因素一樣大，就像這些舉措一樣，這些舉措有點像是數字的累積。

Yes, I knew that was a hard question so thanks for entertaining it. And then my second question on the core accounts, it's great to see some of the improvement there. how aggressively have you started to market the web pricing yet? And I've asked you this question before, but where do you think core account growth can get to? And then remind us how much higher the gross margins are versus the national accounts?

是的，我知道這是一個很難的問題，所以感謝您的回答。我的第二個問題是關於核心帳戶的，很高興看到那裡取得了一些進展。你們已經開始多積極地推銷網路定價了？我之前也問過你這個問題，你認為核心帳戶的成長能達到什麼程度？然後提醒我們毛利率與全國帳戶相比高出多少？

So the marketing, and I'll touch on marketing, right. Marketing we're in full swing there. And remember for us, you'd referenced the web pricing realignment, Ryan, that we did last year. For us, that was really an enabler, because we have a value proposition that's focused on saving our customers time, money, improving their production process.

那麼關於行銷，我會談及行銷，對吧。我們的行銷工作正在那裡全面展開。請記住，瑞安，您提到了我們去年進行的網路價格調整。對我們來說，這確實是一個推動因素，因為我們的價值主張是專注於節省客戶的時間和金錢，並改善他們的生產流程。

We don't want to win business on price, but it was an enabler to take price away as a headwind. So check on the web pricing realignment, check on the website upgrades. And you're now seeing our marketing pretty much in swing. I mean, that will continue to build, but we are seeing it. And Martina mentioned, it's a combination of digital programs. It's a combination of personal outreach.

我們不想靠價格來贏得生意，但它卻成為阻礙物價上漲的因素。因此，請檢查網路上的價格調整，檢查網站升級。現在您會看到我們的行銷活動進展順利。我的意思是，這種情況會繼續發展，但我們已經看到了。瑪蒂娜提到，它是數位程式的組合。這是個人外展的結合。

And some of the metrics that we cited there in terms of, for instance, the direct traffic increases to mscdirect.com as much as anything are a reflection of the marketing program. So we feel like it's in market, we still feel like, Ryan, look, we're encouraged, as you said, by progress in Q3 on the core, we have a ways to go.

我們引用的一些指標，例如 mscdirect.com 的直接流量增加，在很大程度上反映了行銷計劃的效果。所以我們覺得它在市場上，我們仍然覺得，瑞安，看，正如你所說，我們受到鼓舞，核心在第三季度取得的進展，我們還有很長的路要走。

Ultimately, where we'd like to see it, given how low our share position is and how fragmented the core customer small- to medium-sized customer bases. Ultimately, we'd like to get that customer base growing consistent with company average, which happened this quarter, but obviously, getting company average up to our goal of 400 bps or more in terms of outgrowth above IP and there, we still have work to do.

最終，考慮到我們的市場份額如此之低以及核心客戶中小型客戶群的分散程度，這是我們所希望看到的。最終，我們希望客戶群的成長速度與公司平均值保持一致，這在本季度已經實現，但顯然，要使公司平均水平達到我們的目標，即 IP 以上的增長 400 個基點或更多，我們還有很多工作要做。

Ken Newman, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

肯‧紐曼 (Ken Newman)，KeyBanc 資本市場。

So first question for me. Maybe just going back to the comments that Martin touched on the USA product set. The outperformance you saw in the ADS growth from your US ready product set. How confident are you that, that isn't reflecting a pull forward ahead of price increases, just given it sounds like you're being a little bit more constructive on further price increases as we move into fiscal '26.

所以我的第一個問題是。也許只是回顧一下馬丁對美國產品系列的評論。您在美國現有產品組合中看到的 ADS 成長表現優異。您對此有多大信心？這並不反映價格上漲前的提前上漲，只是聽起來您對進入 26 財年時價格的進一步上漲持更積極的態度。

I think that -- I mean, I -- we really have not -- it's obviously hard to measure, but we haven't seen a lot of meaningful pull forward in any of the months since the tariff activity has started. So we're actually seeing the growth come more directly from our cost out programs that we conduct with customers. So there, we are seeing a lot of pull say come and do an assessment.

我認為——我的意思是，我——我們確實沒有——這顯然很難衡量，但自從關稅活動開始以來，我們在任何一個月都沒有看到太多有意義的進步。因此，我們實際上看到成長更直接來自於我們與客戶實施的成本削減計劃。因此，我們看到很多人來這裡進行評估。

Look at my overall portfolio, bring my overall cost down, let me anticipate how I can move ahead of tariffs. So it seems to be a legitimate shift based on our optimization work that we do in the field with customers on a regular basis. So I wouldn't attribute it to prebuy.

看看我的整體投資組合，降低我的整體成本，讓我預測如何能夠領先關稅。因此，根據我們定期與客戶一起在現場進行的優化工作，這似乎是合理的轉變。所以我不會將其歸因於預購。

Understood. Okay. And then for my follow-up, Kristen, I think we've -- and Erik, you mentioned this like kind of moving back towards this more normalized incremental margin. I think your target is 20% I know it's still kind of hard in terms of visibility on the volume side. But while we're also kind of throwing in this opportunity from price, is there a way to kind of help us think about what is the right level of volume growth to kind of keep margins stable or growing relative to the flow-through on price?

明白了。好的。然後，對於我的後續問題，克里斯汀，我認為我們已經 - 和埃里克，你提到這有點像回到這種更正常化的增量利潤率。我認為你的目標是 20%，我知道從成交量可見度來看這仍然有點困難。但是，雖然我們也從價格角度抓住了這個機會，但是有沒有辦法可以幫助我們思考，什麼樣的銷量增長水平合適，才能保持利潤率穩定或相對於價格流通有所增長？

Ken, I would say there are so many moving parts right now. What I'd rather do is come back. Look, we'll give you full color next quarter in terms of specifically for '26. What we did want to give you, though, is a little bit of like sort of walking line-by-line revenue margin OpEx to say that we do see absent major shifts in the environment are more normalized, especially on the OpEx line, a more normalized.

肯，我想說現在有很多活動部件。我寧願做的是回來。瞧，下個季度我們將為您提供有關 26 年的全彩資訊。不過，我們確實想給你一些逐行的收入利潤率營運支出數據，表明我們確實看到環境沒有發生重大變化，更加正常化，特別是在營運支出線上，更加正常化。

So stable on revenues, more or less stable on margin depending what happens on pricing and a more normalized OpEx view between a couple of these big line items leveling and then the productivity moving in. So you're right. Look, what we've said is our goal on incremental margins is 20% plus over a cycle. That's where we want to be. But we'll come back with more detail next quarter to give you a better feel for '26.

因此，收入穩定，利潤率也或多或少保持穩定，這取決於定價情況，以及這些大項目之間的更規範化的營運支出觀點，然後是生產力的提高。所以你是對的。你看，我們已經說過，我們增量利潤的目標是在一個週期內達到 20% 以上。這正是我們想要的。但我們將在下個季度提供更多詳細信息，以便讓您更好地了解 26 年。

Patrick Baumann, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的派崔克‧鮑曼。

On the website metrics, just going back to that you quote, I think you said direct traffic up low double digit and that's year-over-year and then mid-single digits and see enhancements. And then I think you said site conversion improving. Can you talk about the marketing that's required to drive that? And whether you're seeing that lift in the quarter sustained?

關於網站指標，回到您引用的內容，我認為您說的是直接流量上漲了低兩位數，這是同比增長，然後是中等個位數，並且看到了增強。然後我想您說的是網站轉換率正在提高。您能談談推動這目標所需的行銷嗎？您是否認為本季的成長動能持續下去？

Or did you see kind of an initial boost from any marketing that you did on the changes that then faded a bit. Just kind of curious on how that performance looked through the quarter relative to when you started marketing it to your customers? And then along those lines, are you seeing this more effective with your existing customers? Or are you seeing any progress on new customers?

或者您是否看到了針對這些變化所做的行銷在最初帶來的推動作用，但後來這種推動作用逐漸減弱了。我只是有點好奇，相對於你們開始向客戶推銷它時，這個季度的表現如何？那麼，按照這樣的思路，您是否認為這種方法對現有客戶更有效呢？或是您看到新客戶有任何進展？

Yes, Pat, I'll start here. So I think in terms of the portfolio of marketing efforts, and you are right to connect the website performance and the marketing performance, specifically as it relates to traffic, when we want to evaluate how is the site doing in terms of enhancing the customer experience, making it easier to find shop buy, et cetera. We're really looking at conversion rates.

是的，帕特，我就從這裡開始。因此，我認為就行銷工作組合而言，您正確地將網站表現和行銷表現聯繫起來，特別是與流量相關的效能，當我們想要評估網站在增強客戶體驗、使客戶更容易找到商店購買等方面的表現時。我們真正關注的是轉換率。

And we're seeing some encouraging green shoots there as we referenced the marketing influence is getting customers to the site and you were quoting the metrics. So in terms of a portfolio, of activities. It's along the lines of what we've been describing to date. And it's a combination of digital, personal outreach, even some prints, believe it or not. In terms of the timing, no, it's been fairly consistent.

正如我們所提到的，行銷影響力正在吸引客戶造訪網站，而您也引用了相關指標，因此我們看到了一些令人鼓舞的跡象。就投資組合和活動而言。這與我們迄今為止所描述的情況一致。不管你信不信，它是數位化、個人化推廣，甚至一些印刷品的組合。就時間而言，不，它一直相當一致。

It has not been like a kind of this mad rush in the beginning and then either a dissipation or leveling off, which has been encouraging. It's been more or less, and it's not exactly a straight line, but fairly consistent. And then in terms of the makeup, yes, no, we're seeing it both in terms of -- and you can imagine, we're tracking performance of our existing customers. How are they doing? And how are we doing generating new customers.

它並不是一開始就瘋狂發展，然後逐漸消散或趨於平穩，這是令人鼓舞的。或多或少都是這樣的，雖然不完全是一條直線，但相當一致。然後就構成而言，是的，不，我們從兩個方面看待它 - 你可以想像，我們正在追蹤現有客戶的表現。他們怎麼樣了？我們如何吸引新客戶？

And I would say progress. And again, I call it -- we call it a progress. There's still a ways to go here, but progress would be along both dimensions, new and existing.

我想說的是進步。我再次稱之為——我們稱之為進步。這裡還有很長的路要走，但進步將沿著新的和現有的兩個維度進行。

What have been the pushback on changes like people still want to see that you haven't done? Like what have people said like, okay, like good, you've done this, that or the other thing, but like you still need to do this or that.

人們仍然希望看到您尚未完成的改變，但遇到了哪些阻力？就像人們所說的那樣，好吧，很好，你已經做了這個、那個或其他的事情，但你仍然需要做這個或那個。

I think we have a ways to go. And one of the things we're constantly speaking to customers. We're constantly benchmarking both inside and outside of the industry of who does certain elements really well. And you could go through any portion of our site. And we have a team that's focused on getting better every day, Pat. So we've made significant strides in terms of the personalization of the experience.

我認為我們還有很長的路要走。這是我們不斷與客戶溝通的事情之一。我們不斷地在行業內外尋找基準，看看誰能在某些方面做得真正好。您可以瀏覽我們網站的任何部分。帕特，我們有一個致力於每天進步的團隊。因此，我們在體驗個人化方面取得了重大進展。

We've made significant strides in the ability to click and find stuff and the presentation once you find it, and we've made significant strides in getting on and off the site really quickly. That said, we can be better in all areas. And again, we've got a team focused on constant improvements really on a weekly, monthly basis.

我們在點擊查找內容以及找到內容後的演示能力方面取得了重大進展，並且在快速進入和退出網站方面也取得了重大進展。話雖如此，我們在各方面都可以做得更好。再說一次，我們有一個團隊專注於每週、每月的持續改善。

And then on the new hire in tech that you called out, you mentioned something about digital core. I think that was something that you paused like a year ago while you were doing the website redesigned. Remind us what digital core is? And is that initiative like moving ahead now, remind us kind of what that entails?

然後，關於您提到的技術新員工，您提到了一些有關數位核心的事情。我認為那是您在一年前重新設計網站時暫停的事情。提醒我們什麼是數位核心？這項措施是否意味著現在向前邁進了一步，提醒我們這意味著什麼？

Yes, Pat. So first of all, we're really excited that John has joined the team. We've talked about the team internally on a few of these calls. We've got a strong team internally. John brings even more strength and depth to the group. Yes. So the digital core, if you remember, is intended to be an upgrade to our core order-to-cash, procure-to-pay systems.

是的，帕特。首先，我們非常高興約翰加入團隊。我們在幾次電話會議中內部討論了團隊的情況。我們內部擁有一支強大的團隊。約翰為該團體帶來了更多的力量和深度。是的。因此，如果您還記得的話，數位核心旨在升級我們的核心訂單到現金、採購到付款系統。

And the intent was we see a lot of productivity unlock from legacy systems and legacy processes. You're correct. We really slowed it down given some of the issues we had beginning last year, particularly with the website, we were in triage mode and saying we're putting first things first. So progress on the digital core slowed we're now feeling good about progress on the website, as I described, still work to do, but good progress on getting a few other key projects over the finish line.

我們的目的是看到遺留系統和遺留流程釋放大量生產力。你是對的。考慮到去年開始遇到的一些問題，特別是網站問題，我們確實放慢了速度，我們處於分類模式，並表示要把重要的事情放在第一位。因此，數位核心的進展放緩了，我們現在對網站的進展感到滿意，正如我所描述的，仍有工作要做，但在完成其他幾個關鍵項目方面取得了良好的進展。

So we have reshaped the digital core initiative and are gearing it back up at a faster pace now to move at a faster pace. And again, the idea there is it's going to be part of our productivity unlock just '26 but beyond '26, '27, '28 by attacking some of the core value streams in the business.

因此，我們重塑了數位核心計劃，並正在加快步伐，以更快的速度前進。再說一次，我們的想法是，透過攻擊業務中的一些核心價值流，它將成為我們生產力解鎖的一部分，不僅在 2026 年，而且在 2026、2027、2028 年之後。

Helpful. And then last one quickly, if I can. Can you talk about like the trends you saw through the month of June, like did the month start better than it finished? Was it consistent? Did it finish better than it started? And any color on trends through June?

很有幫助。如果可以的話，最後再說一句。您能談談您在六月看到的趨勢嗎，例如這個月的開始是否比結束更好？一致嗎？結局是否比開始時更好？六月有什麼流行顏色嗎？

Yes. Nothing specific that I would note there, Pat, fairly consistent through the month. And just a reminder, Pat, we're still in our fiscal June. Just as a reminder.

是的。帕特，我沒有什麼特別要指出的，整個月都相當一致。提醒一下，帕特，我們的財政年度仍處於六月。只是提醒一下。

David Manthey, Baird.

大衛‧曼西，貝爾德。

First off, Erik, why is 20% the incremental target today? I look back historically, you touched that level back in 2022, but that was with sort of mid-single-digit pricing. What about the business structure today gives you confidence that you can get back to that level of contribution margin when growth resumes, I guess, focusing primarily on OpEx, assuming gross margin might be up a little bit, but primarily I'm thinking on the cost structure.

首先，艾瑞克，為什麼今天的增量目標是 20%？我回顧歷史，2022 年就達到了這個水平，但那時的價格大約是中等個位數。今天的業務結構如何讓您有信心在成長恢復時能夠回到那個貢獻利潤水平，我猜主要關注營運支出，假設毛利率可能會略有上升，但我主要考慮的是成本結構。

Yes. Sure, Dave. I'll start and then either Kristen or Martina can fill in. So first of all, what I wanted to reinforce is that the 20% or better is over the cycle. That's our goal. We absolutely still feel it's achievable, Dave. And I think a few things I'd point to. Number one, and I'll get to your OpEx, but number one is gross margins has been relatively stable now, and that certainly helps. But let me address OpEx.

是的。當然，戴夫。我先開始，然後 Kristen 或 Martina 可以接替。因此首先，我想強調的是，20% 或更高的水平已經超過了週期。這就是我們的目標。我們仍然堅信這是可以實現的，戴夫。我想指出幾點。第一，我會談到你的營運支出，但第一點是毛利率現在相對穩定，這肯定有幫助。但讓我來談談營運支出 (OpEx)。

I think a few points I hit Point number one, you look at what's happened over the last couple of years, and we've layered in some fixed cost investments into the business at a time when revenues dropped. So right out of the gate, we do feel like at some point, as progress continues internally and our self-help on the share gain side, the core customer, et cetera, and markets restore.

我認為我提到了幾點，第一點，你看看過去幾年發生的事情，我們在收入下降的時候對業務進行了一些固定成本投資。因此，從一開始，我們確實感覺到，在某個時候，隨著內部不斷取得進展，以及我們在份額增長、核心客戶等方面的自助，以及市場的恢復。

And look, our outlook for the manufacturing sector remains positive long term, there ought to be a lot of latent leverage, and we see a lot of latent leverage in the business. So a great proof point that we have talked to was our implant and our vending installations where you look and we're expanding our footprint and our potential for share capture at a time when customers spend is suppressed.

而且，我們對製造業的長期前景仍然持樂觀態度，應該有很多潛在的槓桿，而且我們看到該行業有很多潛在的槓桿。因此，我們談到的一個很好的證明點是我們的植入物和自動販賣裝置，您可以看到，我們正在擴大我們的足跡和在客戶支出受到抑制時獲取市場份額的潛力。

So I think the first thing I'd say is we see a lot of leverage to be had to just leverage the fixed costs that have been added into the business as revenues restored. That's point one. I think, point two -- and I'd really lean on the changes that Martina and Kristen are driving in the company. There is a greater focus on productivity. And even beyond productivity, I'd refer to it as sort of a cultural enhancement on continual improvement and constantly looking at sharpening our performance edge sharpening the lens.

因此，我認為首先要說的是，我們看到有很多槓桿可以用來利用隨著收入恢復而添加到業務中的固定成本。這是第一點。我認為，第二點——我非常依賴 Martina 和 Kristen 在公司推動的變革。人們更加重視生產力。除了生產力之外，我稱之為一種持續改進的文化提升，並不斷關注如何提高我們的績效優勢。

So Martina has been touching on the $10 million to $15 million in productivity projects. But from our standpoint, that's just the beginning of what we see in terms of opportunities to get better. So I think that's a new kind of tool in the tool belt relative to where we were years ago, Dave.

因此，Martina 一直在關注價值 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元的生產力項目。但從我們的角度來看，這只是我們所看到的變得更好的機會的開始。所以我認為，相對於我們幾年前所使用的工具，這是工具帶中的一種新型工具，戴夫。

Okay. And then second for Kristen, just a couple of modeling questions. Is it correct? I think the 60 basis points of acquisitions in the third quarter were Premier and [ApTex], and those were sort of lapped now. So unless you do something here, prospectively, fourth quarter acquisition contribution should be zero, I believe. So just checking that.

好的。其次，對克里斯汀來說，只有幾個建模問題。這是正確的嗎？我認為第三季 60 個基點的收購是 Premier 和 [ApTex]，現在這些收購已經有點重疊了。因此，除非你在這裡採取一些行動，否則我認為，第四季的收購貢獻應該為零。所以只是檢查一下。

And then second, on other expense net, I think the -- that line item usually runs about $5 million this quarter, it was like $2 million you didn't change your interest and other guidance of $45 million for the full year. Could you just talk about that dynamic as well.

其次，關於其他費用淨額，我認為 - 本季度該項目通常約為 500 萬美元，而今年是 200 萬美元，您沒有改變全年 4500 萬美元的利息和其他指導。您能否也談談這種動態？

Yes, Dave, on the first question, yes, you got it absolutely right on the acquisition. And then on the other expense line, we had a revaluation on the balance sheet primarily tied to the Mexican peso, which is what you're seeing that made that sort of anomalous this quarter.

是的，戴夫，關於第一個問題，是的，你對收購的回答完全正確。然後，在另一項支出上，我們在資產負債表上進行了重新估值，主要與墨西哥比索有關，這就是你所看到的本季出現異常的原因。

But no change in the full year. Is there a catch-up in the fourth quarter? It doesn't sound like it.

但全年沒有變化。第四季會出現追趕嗎？聽起來不像。

No.

不。

Chris Dankert, Loop Capital Markets.

Chris Dankert，Loop 資本市場。

I guess just quickly for Martina, maybe on the sales force efficiency and productivity gains. Maybe can you talk through what some of the actual actions are being taken there? Is this 20-customer focus? Maybe just some flavor there would be helpful.

我想對 Martina 來說，可能是關於銷售隊伍效率和生產力的提升。您能否談談那裡正在採取的一些實際行動？這是以 20 位客戶為中心嗎？也許只是一些味道會有幫助。

Yes, absolutely. Thanks for the question. So just to go back, this is the first step of a bigger program around sales excellence and sales effectiveness. But what we're talking about right now is coverage. So what we have done over the past couple of quarters is taking a look at where the customer potential is relative to how our sellers are deployed.

是的，絕對是。謝謝你的提問。回顧一下，這是圍繞銷售卓越和銷售效率的更大計劃的第一步。但我們現在談論的是覆蓋範圍。因此，我們在過去幾季所做的就是研究客戶潛力與我們的賣家部署方式之間的關係。

And obviously, respecting existing relationships, we have redesigned territory. So basic sales hygiene to make sure that we're covering the best potential with the best trained people. So from then you -- we have to obviously build relationships, gain access and start to develop a pipeline of opportunities. So what we look at is how often are we touching these customers with these new -- in these new relationships?

顯然，為了尊重現有的關係，我們重新設計了領土。因此，基本的銷售衛生可以確保我們用訓練有素的人員發揮最大的潛力。所以從那時起——我們顯然必須建立關係、獲得准入並開始開發機會管道。因此，我們要關注的是，我們多久能透過這些新關係與這些客戶建立聯繫？

How is the pipeline developing? And then how is the sales per rep per day starting to grow? So we completed the public sector redesign first. That was completed in our first fiscal quarter. Then we went into national accounts, did the same thing to make sure we were touching the right locations with the right frequency. And we did our core redesign as well. So it's a step one, and it's really about account coverage for the best potential.

管道發展得如何？那麼每位銷售代表每天的銷售量是如何開始成長的呢？因此我們首先完成了公共部門的重新設計。這項工作已在我們的第一個財政季度完成。然後我們進入國家帳戶，做同樣的事情以確保我們以正確的頻率接觸正確的位置。我們也對核心進行了重新設計。所以這是第一步，它實際上是為了實現最佳的帳戶覆蓋潛力。

Got it. And then just as a follow-up, for Kristen, sorry, I missed it earlier, when you were talking about the moving parts for fourth quarter margin. What was your comment on the price cost spread into the fiscal fourth quarter?

知道了。然後作為後續問題，對於克里斯汀，抱歉，我之前錯過了，當時你在談論第四季度利潤率的變動部分。您對第四財季的價格成本分攤有何評論？

Yes, Chris, just said it would be pretty narrow. So we are going to have more price stepping up sequentially. We won't get a full two months of realization from the increase that just happened a few days ago. And then the other thing to note is that we are seeing a step-up in costs Q3 to Q4. So overall, it's a pretty narrow a favorable price cost spread for Q3 to Q4.

是的，克里斯，我只是說它會很窄。因此，我們將會逐步提高價格。我們不會從幾天前剛發生的成長中獲得整整兩個月的回報。另一件需要注意的事情是，我們看到第三季到第四季的成本上升。因此整體而言，第三季至第四季的價格成本差價相當窄。

So it should be fairly neutral sequentially because you had a positive price cost this quarter as well, correct?

因此，它應該是相當中性的，因為本季的價格成本也為正，對嗎？

We did, yes, I wouldn't model like a significant benefit from bottom line, I wouldn't model like a significant benefit from price in Q4. It will be up, but it will be offset a healthy amount by the increased costs.

是的，我們確實這麼做了，我不會將其視為從底線中獲得的顯著利益，我不會將其視為從第四季度的價格中獲得的顯著利益。這個數字將會上升，但增加的成本將抵消相當一部分的成長。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ryan Mills for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Ryan Mills 做最後發言。

Thank you for joining us. (technical difficulty)

感謝您加入我們。（技術難度）

Okay. His line has disconnected. So this conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

好的。他的電話線斷了。本次會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。