MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc (MSM) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the MSC Industrial Supply fiscal 2024 for fourth quarter and full-year conference call.

    早上好,歡迎參加 MSC 工業供應 2024 財年第四季和全年電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

    (操作員說明)請注意,正在記錄此事件。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Ryan Mills, Head of Investor Relations.

    我現在想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Ryan Mills。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • Ryan Mills - Head of Investor Relations

    Ryan Mills - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝大家,早安。

  • Welcome to our fourth quarter fiscal 2024 earnings call.

    歡迎參加我們的 2024 財年第四季財報電話會議。

  • Erik Gershwind, Chief Executive Officer; Martina McIsaac, President and Chief Operating Officer, and Kristen Actis-Grande, Chief Financial Officer, are on the call with me today.

    埃里克·格甚溫德,首席執行官;總裁兼營運長 Martina McIsaac 和財務長 Kristen Actis-Grande 今天與我通話。

  • During today's call, we will refer to various financial data and the earnings presentation and operational statistics documents, both of which can be found on our Investor Relations website.

    在今天的電話會議中,我們將參考各種財務數據以及收益演示和營運統計文件,這些文件都可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

  • Let me reference our Safe Harbor statement found on slide 2 of the earnings presentation.

    讓我參考一下收益簡報投影片 2 中的安全港聲明。

  • Our comments on this call as well as the supplemental information we're providing on the website contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US security laws.

    我們對本次電話會議的評論以及我們在網站上提供的補充資訊包含美國安全法含義內的前瞻性聲明。

  • These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these statements.

    這些前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與這些陳述預期的結果有重大差異。

  • Information about these risks is noted in our earnings press release and other SEC filings.

    有關這些風險的資訊已在我們的收益新聞稿和其他 SEC 文件中註明。

  • In addition, during this call, we may refer to certain adjusted financial results, which are non-GAAP measures.

    此外,在本次電話會議中,我們可能會參考某些調整後的財務業績,這些都是非公認會計原則衡量標準。

  • Please refer to the GAAP versus non-GAAP reconciliations in our presentation or on our website, which contain the reconciliation of the adjusted financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures.

    請參閱我們的簡報或網站上的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調整表,其中包含調整後的財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的調整表。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Erik.

    我現在將把電話轉給埃里克。

  • Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Ryan.

    謝謝你,瑞安。

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

    大家早安,感謝您今天加入我們。

  • Before I start, I'd like to share a couple of thoughts on recent -- current events.

    在開始之前,我想分享一些關於最近發生的事件的想法。

  • Our hearts go out to all of those affected by the major hurricane that hit the Southeast in recent weeks.

    我們的心與最近幾週襲擊東南部的所有受颶風影響的人們同在。

  • I'm relieved to report that our associates in the impacted areas are safe, and MSC remains committed to support the disaster relief and recovery efforts through both monetary donations and by providing products on the Red Cross requests list.

    我很欣慰地向大家報告,我們在受影響地區的員工都很安全,MSC 仍然致力於透過捐款和提供紅十字會請求清單上的產品來支持救災和復原工作。

  • On today's call, I'll reflect on the progress of our mission critical program and our fiscal 2024 for performance.

    在今天的電話會議上,我將回顧我們關鍵任務計畫的進展以及 2024 財年的績效。

  • I'll also cover the current environment before passing it over to Martina for begins joining us on these calls to discuss our fiscal 2025 key initiative pipeline.

    我也會介紹當前的環境,然後將其交給 Martina,讓她開始加入我們的電話會議,討論我們 2025 財年的關鍵舉措管道。

  • Kristen will then provide more specifics on our fourth quarter financial performance and our initial expectations for fiscal 2025.

    然後,克里斯汀將提供有關我們第四季度財務業績以及我們對 2025 財年的初步預期的更多細節。

  • And we'll then open up the line for questions.

    然後我們將開放提問熱線。

  • Before getting into any details, let me offer some broader perspective on our mission critical journey.

    在討論任何細節之前,讓我對我們的關鍵任務之旅提供一些更廣泛的視角。

  • Fiscal 2024 was a challenging year.

    2024 財年是充滿挑戰的一年。

  • We have been coming off of a strong three-year run during our first mission critical chapter in which we met or exceeded all of our stated goals.

    在我們的第一個關鍵任務章節中,我們已經完成了三年的強勁運行,我們達到或超越了所有既定目標。

  • During fiscal 2024, we faced the deteriorating environment, in particularly our metalworking and heavy manufacturing end markets.

    2024 財年,我們面臨著不斷惡化的環境,特別是我們的金屬加工和重型製造終端市場。

  • And compounded that softness with execution challenges in the technology area.

    並將這種軟性與技術領域的執行挑戰結合起來。

  • Since our last call, I've been encouraged to see how our team has rallied despite further softening in the macro.

    自從我們上次通話以來,儘管宏觀經濟進一步疲軟,但看到我們的團隊如何重整旗鼓,我深受鼓舞。

  • I'm seeing evidence that we are restoring the execution that had been built over the prior three years.

    我看到有證據表明我們正在恢復過去三年建立的執行力。

  • First, we're maintaining momentum in our high-touch solutions, which is our first mission critical pillar.

    首先,我們保持高接觸解決方案的勢頭,這是我們的第一個關鍵任務支柱。

  • During fiscal 2024, we improved our implant program count by 29% to 342 and total installed vending machines by 9% to more than 27,000 in fiscal year end.

    2024 財年期間,我們的植入項目數量增加了 29%,達到 342 台,安裝的自動販賣機總數增加了 9%,達到財年末的 27,000 多台。

  • This growth helped our national accounts average daily sales outperform the IP index by roughly 150 basis points for the full year.

    這一增長幫助我們的國民帳戶全年平均日銷售額跑贏 IP 指數約 150 個基點。

  • Large account wins continue to be powered by our ability to improve our customers' operations.

    我們改善客戶營運的能力持續為贏得大客戶提供動力。

  • In fiscal '24, we presented roughly $500 million in documented savings to our customers.

    在 24 財年,我們向客戶提供了約 5 億美元的記錄節省。

  • These savings come from tooling recommendations, manufacturing process improvements, inventory management solutions, and more.

    這些節省來自工具建議、製造流程改善、庫存管理解決方案等。

  • Second, progress continues on our next mission-critical pillar, reenergizing the core customer.

    其次,我們的下一個關鍵任務支柱持續取得進展,為核心客戶注入活力。

  • While core customer growth rates remain suppressed, progress is being made on the critical initiatives that are needed to turn the tide.

    儘管核心客戶成長率仍然受到抑制,但扭轉局勢所需的關鍵舉措正在取得進展。

  • Mscdirect.com enhancements are advancing as expected.

    MScdirect.com 的增強功能正如預期推進。

  • During the last three months, we improved the overall site experience including upgrades to our search algorithm.

    在過去三個月中,我們改進了整體網站體驗,包括升級了搜尋演算法。

  • Shown in the op stats posted on our Investor Relations website, e-commerce represents a little more than 60% of total company revenues, roughly half of which is from sales on mscdirect.com. As communicated on the last call, we expect the site to be ready to support an enhanced marketing effort with the launch of these enhancements in our fiscal second quarter of 2025.

    我們的投資者關係網站上發布的營運統計數據顯示,電子商務占公司總收入的 60% 多一點,其中大約一半來自 mscdirect.com 上的銷售。正如上次電話會議中所傳達的那樣,我們預計該網站將準備好在 2025 財年第二季推出這些增強功能,以支援增強的行銷工作。

  • Further, we completed our web pricing realignment during fiscal '24.

    此外,我們在 2024 財政年度完成了網路定價調整。

  • We see opportunities to continue fine-tuning and we'll capitalize on those over time.

    我們看到了繼續微調的機會,並且隨著時間的推移我們將利用這些機會。

  • As it relates to gross margins, you'll recall that our expectation was to complete the project with a roughly neutral gross margin outcome.

    由於它與毛利率相關,您會記得我們的期望是以大致中性的毛利率結果完成該項目。

  • During our fiscal third quarter, we saw an unexpected dip due to the complexity of our pricing system and discounting algorithms.

    在第三財季,由於定價系統和折扣演算法的複雜性,我們出現了意外的下滑。

  • We took immediate countermeasures and have restored gross margins to expected levels of performance.

    我們立即採取了應對措施,並將毛利率恢復到預期的績效水準。

  • In fact, our fiscal fourth quarter gross margin outperformed historical sequential averages, thanks to solid execution by our team.

    事實上,由於我們團隊的紮實執行,我們第四財季的毛利率超過了歷史連續平均。

  • Third, we've built a strong pipeline of productivity initiatives that will fuel our last mission-critical pillar, optimizing our cost to serve.

    第三,我們已經建立了強大的生產力規劃管道,這將為我們最後一個關鍵任務支柱提供動力,優化我們的服務成本。

  • These programs begin yielding payback this quarter and are expected to build through the year and into fiscal 2026.

    這些計劃將於本季開始產生回報,預計將在全年和 2026 財年實現回報。

  • The first of these initiatives was completed during fiscal 2024, which entailed the difficult decision to close our Columbus CFC.

    第一項舉措於 2024 財年完成,導致我們做出關閉哥倫布 CFC 的艱難決定。

  • This project will yield savings of $5 million to $7 million annually, beginning in the fiscal first quarter.

    從第一財季開始,該項目每年將節省 500 萬至 700 萬美元。

  • Martina will provide more color shortly on our broader productivity opportunity.

    瑪蒂娜很快就會就我們更廣泛的生產力機會提供更多資訊。

  • Fourth, we made meaningful progress on working capital resulting in $410 million of operating cash flow or 160% of net income.

    第四,我們在營運資本方面取得了有意義的進展,營運現金流達到 4.1 億美元,佔淨利的 160%。

  • And lastly, during our previous call, we mentioned that other technology initiatives including the upgrade of our back-office value streams were under review.

    最後,在我們先前的電話會議中,我們提到其他技術舉措,包括後台價值流的升級,正在接受審查。

  • While the work completed to date is sound, we've decided to temporarily pause this project and we'll resume in a phased approach while we reallocate our focus towards growth and the execution of the initiatives that I just outlined.

    雖然迄今為止完成的工作進展順利,但我們決定暫時暫停該項目,並將分階段恢復,同時將重點重新分配給成長和執行我剛才概述的舉措。

  • I'll now move to a quick review of our results for the fiscal year on slide 6.

    現在我將快速回顧一下投影片 6 上的本財年表現。

  • Average daily sales declined 4.7%, which includes a headwind of approximately 160 basis points from non-repeating public sector orders in fiscal 2023 and a roughly 70 basis point tailwind from acquisitions.

    日均銷售額下降 4.7%,其中包括 2023 財年非重複公共部門訂單帶來的約 160 個基點的逆風以及收購帶來的約 70 個基點的順風。

  • Fiscal full-year gross margins of 41.2% improved 20 basis points year-over-year.

    全年財政毛利率為 41.2%,年增 20 個基點。

  • This performance was mainly driven by benefits from non-repeating public sector orders in the prior year and our gross margin countermeasures, which were partially offset by negative price cost and lower-margin acquisitions.

    這一業績主要得益於上一年非重複公共部門訂單以及我們的毛利率對策的收益,但部分被負價格成本和利潤率較低的收購所抵消。

  • As a result of lower sales and higher operating expenses driven by our strategic investments, both reported and adjusted operating margins declined 190 basis points year-over-year to 10.2% and 10.7%, respectively, which is at the high end of our most recent guidance range.

    由於我們的策略投資導致銷售額下降和營運費用上升,報告和調整後的營運利潤率均同比下降 190 個基點,分別降至 10.2% 和 10.7%,這是我們最近的最高水準指導範圍。

  • Together, this resulted in reported earnings per share of $4.58 and adjusted earnings per share of $4.81. Approximately $0.17 of the $1.48 year-over-year adjusted EPS decline was due to headwinds from higher interest and other expenses.

    總計而言,報告每股收益為 4.58 美元,調整後每股收益為 4.81 美元。調整後每股盈餘較去年同期下降 1.48 美元,其中約 0.17 美元是由於利息和其他費用增加的不利影響。

  • Looking ahead to fiscal 2025, the year begins with a continuation of the challenging outlook we faced in fiscal 2024.

    展望 2025 財年,我們在 2024 財年面臨的充滿挑戰的前景將持續下去。

  • Conditions remain soft as evidenced by IP readings, particularly for our top manufacturing end markets, the majority of which are contracting.

    IP數據顯示,情況依然疲軟,尤其是我們的頂級製造業終端市場,其中大部分正在收縮。

  • Automotive and heavy truck, primary metals, fabricated metals, and machinery and equipment are all weak.

    汽車和重型卡車、初級金屬、金屬製品以及機械和設備均表現疲軟。

  • Aerospace remained positive in the quarter, but forward-looking expectations have been tempered due in part to the recent strikes in the sector.

    航空航太本季保持樂觀,但前瞻性預期有所減弱,部分原因是該行業最近發生的罷工。

  • The manufacturing and metalworking-related softness in particular are also evidenced through MBI readings which have now been negative for 19 straight months, including the last three consecutive readings of 44, 44, and 43 respectively.

    MBI 讀數特別證明了製造業和金屬加工相關的疲軟,現已連續 19 個月為負值,包括最近連續三個讀數分別為 44、44 和 43。

  • This is reflected in our Q1 growth rate as September came out of the gates down 4%, and October is trending down between 5% and 6%.

    這反映在我們第一季的成長率中,9 月下降了 4%,10 月的下降趨勢在 5% 到 6% 之間。

  • The primary drivers remain the same and include the effects of sustained high interest rates, leading to reduced spending levels, along with caution from an upcoming presidential election, which is fairly typical.

    主要驅動因素保持不變,包括持續高利率的影響,導致支出水準下降,以及即將舉行的總統選舉的謹慎態度,這是相當典型的。

  • On top of these, we've seen more recent temporary business disruptions stemming from hurricanes.

    除此之外,我們最近也看到颶風造成的暫時性業務中斷。

  • We estimate the impact from hurricanes resulted in a year-over-year ADS headwind of 20 to 30 basis points in September and 40 to 50 basis points in October.

    我們估計,颶風的影響導致 9 月 ADS 年減 20 至 30 個基點,10 月下降 40 至 50 個基點。

  • In addition to starting fiscal 2025 with soft conditions, we're also, as previously communicated, anticipating a step-up in operating expenses, primarily attributed to an expected normalization of incentive-related compensation, along with higher depreciation and amortization expense, due largely to our digital investments.

    除了以軟條件開始2025 財年之外,正如之前所傳達的那樣,我們還預計營運費用將增加,這主要歸因於激勵相關薪酬的預期正常化,以及折舊和攤銷費用的增加,這主要是由於我們的數位投資。

  • These factors will suppress operating margins in the near term.

    這些因素將在短期內抑制營業利益率。

  • While the start of fiscal 2025 is tempered, our outlook for fiscal 2026 is more encouraging.

    儘管 2025 財年伊始情況較為緩和,但我們對 2026 財年的展望更加令人鼓舞。

  • We are well positioned as the majority of our sales are mixed into manufacturing end markets, whose long-term outlook remains strong.

    我們處於有利地位,因為我們的大部分銷售都進入了製造業終端市場,其長期前景仍然強勁。

  • In addition, we expect continued market share capture through implant, vending, and other large account wins that are today subdued due to lower spending levels by our customers.

    此外,我們預計透過植入、自動販賣機和其他大客戶贏得的市場份額將繼續獲得,但由於客戶支出水平較低,這些市場份額目前受到抑制。

  • We also expect to see improved performance from our core customer group as benefits from pricing, e-commerce, marketing, and enhancements in sales coverage filled over the balance of the fiscal year into 2026.

    我們也預計,隨著定價、電子商務、行銷和銷售覆蓋範圍的擴大,我們的核心客戶群的業績將在截至 2026 年的剩餘財年中得到改善。

  • We anticipate operating expenses to level out exiting fiscal 2025, through a combination of moderating depreciation and incentive compensation trends, along with increasing benefits from the current productivity pipeline.

    我們預計,透過適度折舊和激勵性薪酬趨勢以及當前生產力管道帶來的收益不斷增加,營運支出將在 2025 財年持平。

  • And with that, I'll now pass the call over to Martina.

    現在,我將把電話轉給瑪蒂娜。

  • Martina Mclsaac - President & Chief Operating Officer

    Martina Mclsaac - President & Chief Operating Officer

  • Thank you, Erik, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝你,艾瑞克,大家早安。

  • I'm excited to start joining our quarterly earnings call.

    我很高興開始參加我們的季度財報電話會議。

  • Turning to slide 7.

    轉到投影片 7。

  • Let's dig into some of the focus areas of productivity we have in the pipeline.

    讓我們深入探討一下我們正在開發的一些生產力重點領域。

  • Starting with network optimization.

    從網路優化開始。

  • Through our recent study, we identified a portfolio of opportunities to unlock productivity.

    透過最近的研究,我們確定了一系列釋放生產力的機會。

  • In fiscal year '25, we'll begin to execute on a portion of these with a focus on core process upgrades in 3 critical areas.

    在 25 財年,我們將開始執行其中的一部分,重點是 3 個關鍵領域的核心流程升級。

  • First, we have an opportunity to streamline the supply chain for our OEM fastener and C-part categories.

    首先,我們有機會簡化 OEM 緊固件和 C 零件類別的供應鏈。

  • We intend to consolidate our demand planning and procurement and simplify the flow of materials to leverage our purchasing power and take costs out of our network.

    我們打算整合我們的需求規劃和採購,並簡化材料流程,以利用我們的購買力並降低我們的網路成本。

  • Second, we're upgrading our use of technology and our system-wide inventory planning and allocation.

    其次,我們正在升級技術的使用以及全系統的庫存規劃和分配。

  • We want to ensure that we have the right inventory as close to our customers as possible to reduce both cost and carbon.

    我們希望確保我們擁有盡可能靠近客戶的正確庫存,以降低成本和碳排放。

  • By upgrading our planning algorithms, we intend to improve service levels to the customer and work more collaboratively with our suppliers, while we continue to realize working capital benefits through more efficient inventory management.

    透過升級我們的計劃演算法,我們打算提高為客戶提供的服務水平,並與供應商進行更多的協作,同時我們繼續透過更有效率的庫存管理來實現營運資本效益。

  • And third, we see the opportunity to optimize our management of inbound and outbound freight.

    第三,我們看到了優化進出貨運管理的機會。

  • The shift in our business to planned demand coupled with the more sophisticated demand forecasting and allocation of inventory will lead to a reduction in split shipments and a lower reliance on air freight.

    我們的業務向計劃需求的轉變,加上更複雜的需求預測和庫存分配,將減少分批裝運並降低對空運的依賴。

  • The combined benefit to both the cost of goods sold and operating expenses of these three actions are expected to be $10 million to $15 million in combined annualized savings.

    這三項行動的銷售成本和營運費用的綜合效益預計每年可節省 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元。

  • These benefits will begin building this fiscal year and represent a small subset of the total funnel of identified opportunities.

    這些收益將於本財年開始構建,僅佔已確定機會總管道的一小部分。

  • We'll keep you updated on our progress as we move through the year.

    隨著這一年的進展,我們將隨時向您通報我們的最新進展。

  • Now moving to the right of the slide.

    現在移至幻燈片右側。

  • We're also taking action to unlock productivity in sales and customer-facing roles.

    我們也採取行動來釋放銷售和麵向客戶的角色的生產力。

  • To serve our core customers better, we see opportunity to maximize seller potential through an enhanced and data-driven territory model.

    為了更好地服務我們的核心客戶,我們看到了透過增強的數據驅動的區域模型來最大化賣家潛力的機會。

  • This will result in optimized field seller portfolios in terms of size and reach.

    這將導致現場銷售人員組合在規模和覆蓋範圍方面得到最佳化。

  • We're encouraged by the results from the pilot of this model and believe this will substantially expand the sales rep's access to addressable spend.

    我們對此模型試點的結果感到鼓舞,並相信這將大大擴大銷售代表獲得可尋址支出的機會。

  • These changes are expected to be completed over the next two to three quarters.

    這些變化預計將在未來兩到三個季度內完成。

  • In addition to the changes we're making with core customers, we're making similar adjustments in national accounts.

    除了我們對核心客戶所做的改變之外,我們還在國民帳中進行類似的調整。

  • This will allow our team to expand coverage into more underpenetrated locations and will be completed in the first quarter.

    這將使我們的團隊能夠將覆蓋範圍擴大到更多滲透不足的地點,並將在第一季完成。

  • We also see an opportunity to improve time to money on larger wins.

    我們也看到了在更大的勝利中縮短賺錢時間的機會。

  • We've launched a program targeting this opportunity, and during the pilot phase, we reduced solution implementation time on our largest wins with the most complex needs by more than 50%.

    我們針對這一機會啟動了一項計劃,在試點階段,我們將最大的勝利和最複雜的需求的解決方案實施時間縮短了 50% 以上。

  • And lastly, we're making changes to bolster performance in the field.

    最後,我們正在做出改變以增強該領域的性能。

  • We recently enhanced our onboarding process of new hires with customized training road maps for every unique selling role to accelerate the time to perform.

    最近,我們為每個獨特的銷售角色客製了培訓路線圖,以加快執行速度,從而增強了新員工的入職流程。

  • For our mature reps, we implemented a new sales tool that drives enhanced analytics to our sellers to enable more cross-selling opportunities in support of our customers' needs and growth.

    對於我們成熟的銷售代表,我們實施了一種新的銷售工具,該工具可以推動對我們的銷售人員進行增強的分析,從而提供更多的交叉銷售機會,從而支持客戶的需求和成長。

  • These actions allow us to target more than $300 million in growth with minimal incremental investment.

    這些行動使我們能夠以最少的增量投資實現超過 3 億美元的成長目標。

  • And with that, I'll turn it over to Kristen to cover our fourth quarter results and outlook.

    接下來,我將把它交給克里斯汀,介紹我們第四季的業績和前景。

  • Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

    Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Martina, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝你,瑪蒂娜,大家早安。

  • Please turn to slide 8, where you can see key metrics for the fiscal fourth quarter on both the reported and adjusted basis.

    請參閱投影片 8,您可以在其中查看第四財季報告和調整後的關鍵指標。

  • Fiscal fourth-quarter sales of $952 million declined 8% year-over-year on an average daily sales basis, which includes a headwind related to nonrepeating public sector orders in the prior year of approximately 300 basis points.

    第四財季銷售額為 9.52 億美元,以日均銷售額計算,年減 8%,其中包括與前一年非重複公部門訂單相關的逆風約 300 個基點。

  • The remaining 500 basis points of year-over-year decline was primarily driven by lower volumes, which were partially offset by benefits from acquisitions.

    其餘 500 個基點的年減主要是由於銷售下降造成的,但部分銷售量被收購帶來的收益所抵銷。

  • Sequentially, our average daily sales declined by approximately 1%.

    隨後,我們的日均銷售額下降了約 1%。

  • It's worth noting that the adverse impact of FX contributed 20 basis points of the sequential decline.

    值得注意的是,外匯的不利影響導致季減20個基點。

  • By customer type, national accounts declined 2% year-over-year.

    按客戶類型劃分,國民帳戶較去年同期下降 2%。

  • During the quarter, only 34 of our top 100 accounts showed growth, which is a reflection of the softness being seen in our top-end markets.

    本季度,我們的前 100 位客戶中只有 34 位出現成長,這反映了我們高端市場的疲軟。

  • Core and other customers declined approximately 7%, while the public sector declined approximately 28% due to large nonrepeating orders in the prior year.

    核心和其他客戶下降了約 7%,而公共部門由於上一年的大量非重複訂單而下降了約 28%。

  • Excluding this impact, public sector sales would have shown a year-over-year decline in the mid-single-digit range.

    排除此影響,公共部門的銷售額將出現中個位數的年減。

  • Sequentially, average daily sales improved approximately 3% in the public sector.

    隨後,公共部門的日均銷售額成長了約 3%。

  • National accounts performed roughly flat and core customers declined approximately 2%.

    國民帳戶表現大致持平,核心客戶下降約 2%。

  • From a solutions standpoint, we continue growing the number of implant programs and installed vending machines.

    從解決方案的角度來看,我們繼續增加植入程序和安裝的自動販賣機的數量。

  • However, the average daily sales performance of these solutions reflects the current demand environment as the continued growth of our installed base was largely offset by lower levels of activity.

    然而,這些解決方案的平均每日銷售表現反映了當前的需求環境,因為我們的安裝基礎的持續成長在很大程度上被較低的活動水準所抵消。

  • In vending, Q4 average daily sales were flat year-over-year and represented 17% of total company net sales.

    在自動販賣方面,第四季日均銷售額與去年同期持平,占公司總淨銷售額的 17%。

  • Sales through our implant programs grew 5% year-over-year and represented approximately 16% of total company net sales.

    透過我們的植體專案實現的銷售額年增 5%,約占公司總淨銷售額的 16%。

  • Moving to profitability for the quarter.

    本季轉向獲利。

  • Gross margin of 41%, improved 50 basis points year-over-year and 10 basis points quarter-over-quarter sequentially, outperforming historic seasonal patterns.

    毛利率為 41%,較去年增加 50 個基點,較上季提高 10 個基點,優於歷史季節性模式。

  • Our team's ability to quickly rectify the issues that hampered gross margin during the rollout of our enhanced pricing structure in Q3 was the primary driver of sequential improvement in the fourth quarter.

    我們的團隊在第三季推出增強定價結構期間快速糾正阻礙毛利率的問題的能力是第四季度連續改善的主要推動力。

  • Operating expenses in the fourth quarter were approximately $297 million and $296 million on a reported and adjusted basis respectively.

    根據報告和調整後的數據,第四季的營運費用分別約為 2.97 億美元和 2.96 億美元。

  • On an adjusted basis, operating expenses were up $7 million compared to 4Q of last year.

    調整後的營運費用比去年第四季增加了 700 萬美元。

  • Combined with lower sales year-over-year, this resulted in a 320 basis point increase in adjusted operating expense as a percentage of sales.

    再加上銷售額年減,調整後營運費用佔銷售額的百分比增加了 320 個基點。

  • Sequentially, adjusted operating expenses were up $7 million and performed as expected.

    隨後,調整後的營運費用增加了 700 萬美元,並且表現符合預期。

  • The primary drivers of the step-up were a nonrepeating benefit in variable compensation expense in 3Q as well as higher D&A and acquisition-related costs.

    上漲的主要驅動因素是第三季可變薪酬費用的非重複性收益以及更高的 D&A 和收購相關成本。

  • Reported operating margin for the quarter was 9.5% compared to 11.4% in the prior year.

    本季度報告的營業利潤率為 9.5%,而去年同期為 11.4%。

  • On an adjusted basis, operating margin of 9.9% declined 270 basis points year-over-year.

    調整後的營業利益率為 9.9%,較去年同期下降 270 個基點。

  • GAAP earnings per share of $0.99 declined $0.57 compared to the prior year period.

    GAAP 每股收益為 0.99 美元,較去年同期下降 0.57 美元。

  • On an adjusted basis, EPS was $1.03 compared to $1.64 in the prior year.

    調整後每股收益為 1.03 美元,前一年為 1.64 美元。

  • Approximately $0.05 of the year-over-year decline was related to currency impacts in Mexico.

    年比下降約 0.05 美元與墨西哥的貨幣影響有關。

  • Additionally, our higher tax rate in the quarter represented a headwind of another $0.07, which is primarily driven by the derecognition of certain tax assets.

    此外,我們本季較高的稅率又帶來了 0.07 美元的阻力,這主要是由於某些稅務資產的終止確認造成的。

  • Now let's turn to slide 9 to review our balance sheet and cash flow performance.

    現在讓我們轉向投影片 9 來回顧我們的資產負債表和現金流表現。

  • We continue to maintain a healthy balance sheet with net debt of approximately $479 million, representing roughly 1 times EBITDA.

    我們繼續維持健康的資產負債表,淨債務約 4.79 億美元,約 EBITDA 的 1 倍。

  • Working capital was a favorable source of cash in the quarter, including a contribution of roughly $27 million from reductions in inventories and receivables.

    營運資金是本季有利的現金來源,其中包括庫存和應收帳款減少帶來的約 2,700 萬美元的貢獻。

  • This resulted in another strong quarter of operating cash flow with a conversion rate of 199% in 4Q and 160% for the fiscal year, well above our stated target of greater than 125%.

    這導致營運現金流又一個強勁的季度,第四季的轉換率為 199%,本財年的轉換率為 160%,遠高於我們設定的超過 125% 的目標。

  • Capital expenditures decreased $2 million year-over-year to approximately $26 million.

    資本支出年減 200 萬美元,至約 2,600 萬美元。

  • Together, this drove strong free cash flow generation of approximately $81 million in fiscal 4Q and $311 million for the full year, both of which were well above net income.

    這共同推動了第四財季約 8,100 萬美元的自由現金流和全年 3.11 億美元的強勁自由現金流,兩者均遠高於淨利潤。

  • Our balance sheet and cash generation remain strong and continue to fuel our capital allocation priorities shown on slide 10.

    我們的資產負債表和現金產生能力依然強勁,並持續推動投影片 10 所示的資本配置優先事項。

  • We deployed cash in several of these buckets during the year, including four strategic acquisitions and $1.9 million in share repurchases with $250,000 repurchased in 4Q.

    我們在這一年中在其中幾個方面部署了現金,包括四次策略性收購和 190 萬美元的股票回購,其中第四季度回購了 25 萬美元。

  • We also continued to maintain a healthy dividend yield through modest increases to the ordinary dividend as seen by the announced increase of $0.02 earlier this month.

    我們也透過適度增加普通股息,繼續保持健康的股息殖利率,本月稍早宣布增加 0.02 美元。

  • Moving on to our expectations for fiscal '25.

    接下來是我們對 25 財年的預期。

  • Given uncertainty in the current environment, we will start the year by providing a quarterly outlook and return with a longer-range perspective as the environment stabilizes.

    鑑於當前環境的不確定性,隨著環境穩定,我們將透過提供季度展望和長期回報來開始新的一年。

  • However, we will provide longer-term insight on certain line items to help you with the expected cadence for the fiscal year.

    但是,我們將提供有關某些訂單項目的長期見解,以幫助您了解本財年的預期節奏。

  • Starting with our outlook for the fiscal first quarter on slide 11.

    從投影片 11 中我們對第一財季的展望開始。

  • We expect average daily sales to decline 4.5% to 5.5% year-over-year.

    我們預計日均銷售額將年減 4.5% 至 5.5%。

  • Our expected range takes into consideration quarter-to-date sales which are down 4.2% in September and an estimated decline of approximately 5% to 6% for the month of October.

    我們的預期範圍考慮了季度至今的銷售額,9 月份銷售額下降了 4.2%,10 月預計將下降約 5% 至 6%。

  • This implies little to no improvement in November due to uncertainty stemming from the upcoming election, the continuation of end market softness and potential shutdown activities by customers around the Thanksgiving holiday.

    這意味著由於即將到來的選舉帶來的不確定性、終端市場持續疲軟以及感恩節假期期間客戶可能關閉活動,11 月的情況幾乎沒有任何改善。

  • Under this revenue assumption, we expect adjusted operating margin to fall in the range of 7% to 7.5% which takes into consideration the following: gross margins of 40.8%, plus or minus 20 basis points; and a step-up in adjusted operating expenses compared to the fiscal fourth quarter of approximately $8 million.

    在這項收入假設下,考慮到以下因素,我們預期調整後的營業利潤率將下降在 7% 至 7.5% 的範圍內: 毛利率為 40.8%,上下浮動 20 個基點;與第四財季相比,調整後的營運支出增加了約 800 萬美元。

  • This step-up is being driven by the resetting of the variable compensation programs to the new fiscal year and higher D&A.

    這項升級是由新財年可變薪酬計畫的重置和更高的 D&A 推動的。

  • Turning to slide 12.

    轉到投影片 12。

  • We've outlined our expectations on certain line items for the full year.

    我們概述了對全年某些項目的預期。

  • We expect depreciation and amortization costs to be roughly $90 million to $95 million, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately $10 million to $15 million.

    我們預計折舊和攤提成本約為 9,000 萬至 9,500 萬美元,年增約 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元。

  • This largely reflects the investments made in technological and digital capabilities as well as continued growth in vending.

    這在很大程度上反映了對技術和數位能力的投資以及自動販賣機業務的持續成長。

  • Other underlying assumptions include interest and other expenses of roughly $45 million.

    其他基本假設包括約 4500 萬美元的利息和其他費用。

  • Capital expenditures, including cloud computing arrangements of $100 million to $110 million and a tax rate between 24.5% and 25%.

    資本支出,包括1億至1.1億美元的雲端運算安排以及24.5%至25%之間的稅率。

  • Strong free cash flow generation is expected to continue in this fiscal year and to be approximately 100% of net income.

    預計本財年將繼續產生強勁的自由現金流,並約佔淨利潤的 100%。

  • To assist in modeling the cadence of sales for the remainder of the fiscal year, the bottom of the slide provides historical quarter-over-quarter averages and key considerations.

    為了幫助本財年剩餘時間的銷售節奏進行建模,投影片底部提供了歷史季度環比平均值和關鍵考慮因素。

  • Lastly, we have the same number of business days year-over-year throughout each quarter in fiscal '25, as shown at the bottom of the chart.

    最後,如圖表底部所示,25 財年每季的營業天數與去年同期相同。

  • And with that, we will open the line for Q&A.

    接下來,我們將開通問答熱線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Tommy Moll, Stephens.

    (操作員說明)Tommy Moll,Stephens。

  • Tommy Moll - Analyst

    Tommy Moll - Analyst

  • So you called out on slide 4, the top 5 industry groups, which is helpful, particularly given some of the divergence there.

    所以你在投影片 4 上指出了前 5 個行業群體,這很有幫助,特別是考慮到那裡存在一些分歧。

  • And so I'll ask a question that we may not get the exact answer to, but if you can just point us directionally, I think it would be helpful to the investor community.

    因此,我會問一個我們可能無法得到確切答案的問題,但如果您能為我們指明方向,我認為這將對投資者群體有所幫助。

  • Do you have any rough rules of thumb on how much of your business, each of those five industries drives?

    對於這五個行業各自對您的業務的推動程度,您有什麼粗略的經驗法則嗎?

  • Or do you think of them collectively as a rough fraction of your overall revenue?

    或者您是否將它們視為您總收入的粗略部分?

  • I'm just trying to get a sense of how we can think about those 5 and the magnitude they may have.

    我只是想了解我們如何看待這 5 個因素以及它們可能具有的規模。

  • The call out to useful and just trying to go the next step here.

    呼籲有用,只是試圖在這裡進行下一步。

  • Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Tommy.

    是的,湯米。

  • So the first thing I'd say is to take a look at what we do break out, so we don't give specific end market detail, but what you can see is our heavy manufacturing breakout.

    因此,我要說的第一件事是看看我們所做的突破,因此我們不會提供具體的終端市場細節,但您可以看到的是我們的重型製造突破。

  • So that's the first place to start, which, as you know, is the majority of a big chunk of our manufacturing exposure is heavy manufacturing, which is levered towards metalworking.

    因此,這是第一個開始的地方,如您所知,我們的大部分製造業業務都是重工業,而重工業則主要用於金屬加工。

  • Of the heavy manufacturing, while we don't break it out specifically, what I can tell you is that the enumerated end markets are the bulk of that heavy manufacturing number.

    對於重型製造業,雖然我們沒有具體細分,但我可以告訴你的是,所列舉的終端市場是重型製造業數字的大部分。

  • So what you're seeing there is our heavy manufacturing portfolio right now is particularly soft.

    因此,您現在看到的是,我們的重型製造產品組合現在特別疲軟。

  • With the exception of one that we called out being aerospace, which remains positive, a little tempered but positive.

    除了我們稱之為航空航天的一個例外,它仍然是積極的,雖然有點緩和但積極。

  • The others have been quite negative.

    其他人則相當消極。

  • And I think one of the best proof points for that we shared in the prepared remarks, I mean if you look at our largest 100 accounts, so these are accounts where we have a very good relationship and a good share position, and it was 34 out of 100 are growing.

    我認為最好的證明點之一是我們在準備好的發言中分享的,我的意思是,如果你看看我們最大的100 個帳戶,那麼這些帳戶是我們擁有非常良好的關係和良好的股票地位的帳戶,這是34 100 個中的一個正在增長。

  • That would be illustrative of what we're seeing here.

    這可以說明我們在這裡看到的情況。

  • So the punch line is what we laid out and what we enumerated would make up the bulk of heavy manufacturing.

    因此,妙語就是我們所列出的內容,我們所列舉的內容將構成重型製造業的大部分內容。

  • Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

    Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

  • Tommy, I can put a little bit of a finer point on that.

    湯米,我可以對此說得更詳細一些。

  • It's roughly about half the business of those top 5 end markets.

    這大約占前 5 個終端市場業務的一半左右。

  • Machinery and equipment directionally is the largest.

    機械設備方向最大。

  • Aero and auto are about 10%, and that's what we can sort of attribute directly into those end markets.

    航空和汽車約佔 10%,這就是我們可以直接歸因於這些終端市場的原因。

  • We have some additional end market, indirect exposure, but that's what we have a kind of clean line of sight to.

    我們有一些額外的終端市場,間接接觸,但這就是我們有一種清晰的視線。

  • Tommy Moll - Analyst

    Tommy Moll - Analyst

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • And then as a follow-up, I wanted to touch on the framework you provided for the first fiscal quarter and for the year.

    然後,作為後續行動,我想談談您為第一財季和今年提供的框架。

  • And given the uncertainty, we certainly understand the lighter-than-typical metrics that you've provided.

    考慮到不確定性,我們當然理解您提供的比典型指標更簡單的指標。

  • But I just want to do my best to get us all on the same page here on some of the margin points, Kristen, you've given us helpful jumping-off points for the first fiscal quarter, both for gross margin and operating expense.

    但我只是想盡我所能,讓我們在一些利潤點上達成共識,克里斯汀,你為我們提供了第一財季有用的起點,無論是毛利率還是營運費用。

  • What do you want us to know that you can share today on either of those points?

    您希望我們知道您今天可以在這兩點上分享什麼?

  • And so what I have in mind here is whatever you view your typical sequential progression to be on a gross margin standpoint, any big deviations from that we should bear in mind?

    因此,我在這裡想到的是,無論您如何從毛利率的角度看待典型的連續進展,我們應該牢記與此有什麼大的偏差嗎?

  • And then also just maybe even philosophically how you're thinking about managing the operating expense, the fixed and variable pieces of that as we go through this year.

    然後,甚至從哲學上講,您如何考慮管理營運費用,以及我們今年經歷的固定和可變部分。

  • Anything you could share just to get us on the same page would help.

    您可以分享的任何能讓我們達成共識的內容都會有所幫助。

  • Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

    Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • So maybe let me start, Tom, just reiterating what we had communicated in Q1 in the prepared remarks.

    湯姆,也許讓我先重申一下我們在第一季準備好的發言中所傳達的內容。

  • So we're thinking the midpoint based on what we can see right now on ADS is about down 5% and then 40.8% gross margin, plus or minus 20 basis points.

    因此,我們認為,根據我們目前在 ADS 上看到的情況,毛利率的中點大約下降 5%,然後是 40.8%,上下浮動 20 個基點。

  • I think you've got the OpEx noted, we had indicated about an $8 million step-up.

    我想您已經注意到了營運支出,我們已經表示要增加約 800 萬美元。

  • So the midpoint of the range, we have an op margin is about

    所以範圍的中點,我們的操作餘裕約為

  • [7.25].

    [7.25]。

  • Within that, we've kind of communicated before, maybe let me touch on the OpEx side first, we do have kind of a onetime step-up that's coming from D&A from the resetting of the compensation programs.

    在這方面,我們之前已經進行過溝通,也許讓我先談談營運支出方面,我們確實有一種一次性的升級,這是來自重置補償計劃的 D&A。

  • On the gross margin side, we're really pleased with how Q4 ended within fiscal '24.

    在毛利率方面,我們對 24 財年第四季的結束感到非常滿意。

  • Good execution by the team on recovering the list price repositioning instability that happened in Q4 and then as we think about Q4 moving into Q1, just directionally, we're thinking flattish price/cost Q4 to Q1.

    團隊在恢復第四季度發生的標價重新定位不穩定性方面表現良好,然後當我們考慮第四季度進入第一季度時,只是方向性地,我們認為第四季度到第一季的價格/成本持平。

  • And maybe beyond that, I know we're not giving an annual outlook.

    也許除此之外,我知道我們不會給出年度展望。

  • It is really uncertain now as you've commented, and we do have very limited visibility, but perhaps a little bit more color on sequencing that maybe will at least help with the first half directionally.

    正如您所評論的那樣,現在確實不確定,而且我們的可見性確實非常有限,但也許在排序上有更多的色彩,這可能至少會對上半場的方向有所幫助。

  • We talked about revenue in 1Q being down $5 million.

    我們談到第一季的營收下降了 500 萬美元。

  • So if you think about kind of how we're expecting Q1 to Q2 sequential to play out, I would note the historic side year average that we had put on the slides in the presentation.

    因此,如果您考慮我們預計第一季到第二季的連續情況如何,我會注意到我們在簡報中放在投影片上的歷史年平均值。

  • And right now, we don't anticipate any notable change in that macro environment through calendar year '24.

    目前,我們預計 24 日曆年宏觀環境不會有任何顯著變化。

  • So -- and that's all the reasons we hit in the prepared remarks.

    所以——這就是我們在準備好的評論中提到的所有原因。

  • Specific to December, I think it's important to note that we are expecting to see a larger amount of holiday shutdowns in the month, which is very similar to what we had seen in '23 -- calendar '23 and calendar '24.

    具體到 12 月,我認為值得注意的是,我們預計本月會出現更多的假期關閉,這與我們在 23 年(日曆 23 和日曆 24)中看到的情況非常相似。

  • So really, with respect to the rest of the first half, what remains to be seen is the snapback that happens in January and February.

    因此,實際上,就上半年的剩餘時間而言,還有待觀察的是一月和二月發生的快速反彈。

  • That's a little bit more color on first half.

    上半場的色彩有點多。

  • And then obviously, what we're really looking towards is the second half, we noted some of the initiatives on this slide in the investor presentation that we're really hoping would change the course of the second-half sequential averages that we've seen.

    顯然,我們真正期待的是下半年,我們在投資者簡報中註意到這張投影片上的一些舉措,我們真的希望這些舉措能夠改變我們已經看到的下半年連續平均的進程看到了。

  • And that's, of course, the web enhancements, the marketing initiatives.

    當然,這就是網路增強和行銷舉措。

  • And then Martina highlighted some new things around selling effectiveness.

    然後瑪蒂娜強調了一些有關銷售效率的新事物。

  • So hopefully, that helps cover this a little bit.

    希望這有助於解決這個問題。

  • I guess maybe the last thing, let me hit on OpEx, Q1 into Q2, just to give you one more point on first half, I'd expect there's another small step up Q1 to Q2 on the OpEx, and that's because of the timing of the annual salary inflation increases.

    我想也許是最後一件事,讓我談談營運支出,第一季進入第二季度,只是為了在上半場給你多一點,我預計營運支出上第一季到第二季會有另一個小進步,這是因為時間安排年度薪資通膨增加。

  • Tommy Moll - Analyst

    Tommy Moll - Analyst

  • So the D&A will be fully at the run rate for Q1 -- but what you just described

    因此,D&A 將完全按照第一季的運行速度進行——但正如您剛才所描述的那樣

  • --

    --

  • Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

    Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

  • It's a small step up still, Tommy, but it gets washed out by other things, like the tall candlestick, Q1 to Q2 is really around personnel-related costs.

    湯米,這仍然是一個小小的進步,但它會被其他事情沖淡,例如高燭台,第一季到第二季實際上是與人員相關的成本相關的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

    瑞恩·梅克爾、威廉·布萊爾。

  • Ryan Merkel - Analyst

    Ryan Merkel - Analyst

  • I wanted to follow up on a couple of the prior questions.

    我想跟進之前的幾個問題。

  • So the slide 12, should we be viewing that as guidance?

    那麼投影片 12,我們應該將其視為指導嗎?

  • Or are you sort of communicating that you think you'll do better than these average sequentials given some of the initiatives that you have?

    或者你在表達,考慮到你所採取的一些舉措,你認為你會比這些平均順序做得更好?

  • Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

    Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, I can take that one, Ryan.

    是的,我可以接受,瑞安。

  • So that is really a reference point for -- we recognize we're not giving annual guidance or an outlook.

    因此,這確實是一個參考點——我們認識到我們不會提供年度指導或前景。

  • So we would expect that when all of you were starting your modeling, you are looking at how historic sequencing would play out.

    因此,我們希望當你們所有人開始建模時,你們正在研究歷史排序將如何發揮作用。

  • So that's really more of a reference point as to what our past five years have been.

    因此,這實際上更多是我們過去五年的參考點。

  • We don't know if it's going to look like that or not.

    我們不知道它是否會像那樣。

  • If we did, we'd be giving you more specificity on an annual range, and we really don't know at this point.

    如果我們這樣做,我們將為您提供有關年度範圍的更多具體信息,但我們目前確實不知道。

  • We would expect the initiatives to kick in, in the second half, which are some of the considerations that we've noted on the slide.

    我們預計這些措施將在下半年啟動,這是我們在幻燈片中註意到的一些考慮因素。

  • But beyond that, I don't have any more to share as to what we have visibility into at this point.

    但除此之外,對於我們目前所了解的情況,我沒有更多可以分享的。

  • Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Ryan.

    是的,瑞安。

  • Just add a little color.

    只需添加一點顏色即可。

  • There's two variables.

    有兩個變數。

  • One is, as Kristen said, how quickly the initiatives come online.

    正如克里斯汀所說,其中之一是這些舉措上線的速度有多快。

  • And look, as I said in the prepared remarks, we're encouraged by the execution that we're seeing here coming off of '24, where we had hiccups in one area of the company.

    瞧,正如我在準備好的發言中所說,我們對 24 年以來的執行情況感到鼓舞,當時我們在公司的一個領域出現了問題。

  • But variable number 2 is also the macro.

    但變數號 2 也是宏。

  • And part of the reason we didn't give our normal annual framework here is because visibility is fairly limited.

    我們沒有在這裡給出正常的年度框架的部分原因是可見度相當有限。

  • And we just don't know postelection, you have interest rates coming down.

    我們只是不知道選後利率會下降。

  • We don't know how quickly do things ramp.

    我們不知道事情進展得有多快。

  • We do know that we pin a long time with very low levels of MBI readings and at some point, history says, at some point in the not-too-distant future, things are going to turn, but we just can't call it.

    我們確實知道,我們將在很長一段時間內處於非常低的 MBI 讀數水平,歷史表明,在不遠的將來的某個時刻,事情將會發生轉變,但我們無法稱之為“逆轉”。

  • Ryan Merkel - Analyst

    Ryan Merkel - Analyst

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • No, I appreciate that.

    不,我很欣賞這一點。

  • It's very murky to put it lately.

    最近說起來很陰暗。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And then SG&A, so it sounds like you have a step-up 1Q, a little higher 2Q, I guess a two-part question.

    然後是 SG&A,所以聽起來你有一個升級的 1Q,更高一點的 2Q,我想這是一個由兩部分組成的問題。

  • Does it stay stable from there in the second half off the 2Q levels?

    下半年是否會比第二季的水準保持穩定?

  • Or you talked about some OpEx cost-cutting that you may be doing.

    或者您談到了您可能正在採取的一些營運支出成本削減措施。

  • So can you quantify that?

    那你能量化一下嗎?

  • I'm just curious how much of that will help in '25 or if there's a lot of that in '26?

    我只是好奇這對 25 年有多少幫助,或者在 26 年是否有很多幫助?

  • Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

    Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, I can add a little more detail on that, Ryan.

    是的,我可以添加更多細節,瑞安。

  • So for the second half, the way that I would think about that relative to the information I just provided on first half is really volume becomes the big driver.

    因此,對於下半年,相對於我剛剛在上半年提供的信息,我的思考方式是數量確實成為了重要的驅動因素。

  • So, however, you're layering in your volume assumptions in the second half, that's the big mover on OpEx on a dollar basis.

    然而,你在下半年對交易量假設進行了分層,這是以美元為基礎的營運支出的重大推動因素。

  • There is a lot of movement within that specific to investments in productivity, as you noted.

    正如您所指出的,在生產力投資方面有很多變化。

  • So we are expecting a decent amount of productivity generation in fiscal '25.

    因此,我們預計 25 財年將產生可觀的生產力。

  • You heard Martina mentioned a few of the projects that we're working on and the network optimization study.

    您聽說 Martina 提到了我們正在進行的一些專案以及網路優化研究。

  • We've got the benefits from Columbus.

    我們從哥倫布得到了好處。

  • That will be building in the second half.

    這將在下半年進行。

  • We're also dealing with some increased G&A throughout the year and we've got some investment that will still remain throughout fiscal '25.

    我們也正在處理全年一般行政費用的增加,我們的部分投資仍將在整個 25 財年保留。

  • So all of those moving pieces kind of taken together from a modeling perspective, I would really just encourage you to look at how the volume is coming in.

    因此,從建模的角度來看,所有這些移動的部分都放在一起,我真的只是鼓勵你看看體積是如何進來的。

  • And I would directionally use like 8% to 10% of volume on that -- 8% to 10% of revenue through volume-based expenses.

    我會定向使用 8% 到 10% 的銷量——8% 到 10% 的收入通過基於銷量的支出。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Manthey, Baird.

    大衛曼蒂,貝爾德。

  • David Manthey - Analyst

    David Manthey - Analyst

  • It seems like we're all circling around the same thoughts here.

    似乎我們都在圍繞著同樣的想法。

  • But when I look at the quarter-to-quarter progression from third quarter to the fourth quarter actual, it looks pretty normal based on what you laid out in slide 12, that five-year average.

    但是,當我查看從第三季到第四季的實際季度進度時,根據您在投影片 12 中列出的五年平均值,它看起來相當正常。

  • If we were looking at your guidance, though, I think the quarter-to-quarter progression is minus 3.4 from this fourth quarter to what you're guiding for the first quarter.

    不過,如果我們查看您的指導,我認為從第四季度到您第一季的指導,季度環比增速為負 3.4。

  • If you were to extend that chart on slide 12 and talk about what the five-year average is quarter-to-quarter from fourth to first, do you know what that is?

    如果您要擴展幻燈片 12 上的圖表並討論從第四名到第一名的每季的五年平均值是多少,您知道那是什麼嗎?

  • We can calculate it, but I just -- it would be easy if we just hear it from you.

    我們可以計算它,但我只是——如果我們只是從你那裡聽到它,那就很容易了。

  • Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

    Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

  • Dave, you're asking if you calculate out -- just to be clear on your question, if you were to play out the five-year historic sequential through the year based off the 1Q jump-off point, where would you get for the year?

    戴夫,你問的是你是否計算出來 - 只是為了明確你的問題,如果你要根據第一季的起始點來計算全年的五年曆史序列,你會得到哪裡年?

  • David Manthey - Analyst

    David Manthey - Analyst

  • No.

    不。

  • I'm just looking at -- in each of those boxes, you say, here's what the normal progression is from the quarter to the next quarter.

    我只是在看 - 在每個方框中,你說,這是從一個季度到下一個季度的正常進展。

  • And I'm asking you, what is that normal progression from fourth quarter to first quarter?

    我問你,從第四季到第一季的正常進展是什麼?

  • Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

    Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

  • Fourth quarter

    第四季

  • --

    --

  • Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's typically up 1%.

    通常上漲 1%。

  • Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

    Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, up 1% typically, Dave, on the five-year.

    是的,戴夫,五年通常會上漲 1%。

  • David Manthey - Analyst

    David Manthey - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So that just gives us an idea of what this -- what the guidance is.

    所以這只是讓我們了解這是什麼——指導是什麼。

  • I mean, again, the calculation looks like it's down about 3 -- a little more than 3%.

    我的意思是,計算結果看起來下降了約 3%——略高於 3%。

  • So if it's normally up 1%, that just gives us an idea of the magnitude that we're looking at there.

    因此,如果它通常會上漲 1%,那隻能讓我們了解我們所看到的幅度。

  • Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Dave, just to underscore, you're exactly right, and it really chalks back to what we're talking about with the end market weakness right now.

    戴夫,只是想強調一下,你是完全正確的,這確實與我們現在談論的終端市場疲軟有關。

  • So clearly, what you're hitting on is right that the Q1 performance is well below what would be a typical seasonal average.

    很明顯,您的觀點是正確的,即第一季的表現遠低於典型的季節性平均值。

  • And again, as we drill in there, it's been a change, a softening, particularly in these end markets.

    再次,當我們深入那裡時,這是一種變化,一種軟化,特別是在這些終端市場。

  • You go back to the 34 out of the top 100 growing.

    你回到前 100 名成長中的 34 名。

  • I think another thing to look at what we're seeing right now is that the vending stat that Kristen highlighted earlier, where vending signings, if you look at our vending count, it's plus 9%, and yet vending revenue growth is flat.

    我認為我們現在看到的另一件事是克里斯汀早些時候強調的自動售貨統計數據,如果你看看我們的自動售貨數量,自動售貨簽約量增加了9%,但自動售貨收入成長持平。

  • So on a per machine basis obviously, things are down, things are soft.

    因此,顯然,就每台機器而言,情況有所下降,情況很疲軟。

  • So what you're seeing is different from a typical year for sure right now.

    所以你現在看到的情況肯定與往年不同。

  • The question is, obviously, what we just don't know is what happens from here.

    顯然,問題是我們不知道接下來會發生什麼。

  • David Manthey - Analyst

    David Manthey - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • And then on the SG&A, based on triangulating the data that you gave us, it looks like operating expenses will be up at least low single digits year-over-year in the first quarter, and I'm just comparing that to the top-line trends.

    然後,在 SG&A 方面,根據您提供給我們的數據進行三角測量,第一季的營運費用年比至少會成長低個位數,我只是將其與頂部進行比較-線趨勢。

  • And I'm wondering -- I know you're making a lot of strategic investments, but I'm just wondering, why doesn't operating expense flex down more with the weak sales trends you've seen and then kind of related to that, as we -- Kristen, you kind of gave us the details on the year.

    我想知道 - 我知道您正在進行大量戰略投資,但我只是想知道,為什麼運營費用沒有隨著您所看到的疲軟銷售趨勢而進一步下降,然後與克里斯汀,你向我們提供了這一年的詳細資料。

  • So as these web enhancements and marketing programs are rolled out in the second quarter, you're not seeing any incremental cost elements that will come in as a result of that.

    因此,隨著這些網路增強功能和行銷計劃在第二季度推出,您不會看到因此而產生的任何增量成本因素。

  • You mentioned some of the compensation resets and things.

    你提到了一些補償重置之類的事情。

  • But is there anything related to the web enhancements and marketing programs in the second quarter as well?

    但第二季是否也有與網路增強和行銷計劃相關的事情?

  • Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Dave, I'll let Kristen take the last part of your question first, maybe, and then I want to answer the first part around just why aren't we seeing cost flex down more, which is a fair question.

    戴夫,也許我會讓克里斯汀先回答你問題的最後一部分,然後我想回答第一部分,為什麼我們沒有看到成本彈性進一步下降,這是一個公平的問題。

  • Kristen, I just want to hit how to think about the web and marketing first.

    克里斯汀,我只想先談談如何思考網路和行銷。

  • Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

    Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • So we really simplified the OpEx answer before, Dave, but there is incremental investment throughout the year.

    所以,戴夫,我們之前確實簡化了營運支出的答案,但全年都有增量投資。

  • So in Q2, for example, we have the marketing program coming online.

    例如,在第二季度,我們的行銷計劃上線了。

  • That will create a sequential increase in investments.

    這將導致投資連續增加。

  • We have other productivity initiatives that are covering that. which is I kind of alluded to the one tall candlestick really being around personnel-related expenses.

    我們還有其他生產力計劃來解決這個問題。我有點暗示一根高燭台實際上與人員相關的費用有關。

  • And it's a similar story through the second half.

    整個後半段都是類似的故事。

  • We have productivity ramping up.

    我們的生產力不斷提高。

  • There is some incremental investments throughout the year.

    全年都有一些增量投資。

  • Holistically, we are expecting productivity to outweigh the amount we're investing this year.

    總體而言,我們預計今年的生產力將超過我們的投資金額。

  • But as we've talked about before, on a full-year basis, there are still some big step-ups that we're dealing with.

    但正如我們之前談到的,就全年而言,我們仍然面臨一些重大的進步。

  • And I think we've talked about those on a previous call, but that really has to do with the compensation programs resetting and a DNA step-up that we're dealing with.

    我想我們在之前的電話會議中已經討論過這些問題,但這確實與我們正在處理的薪酬計劃重置和 DNA 升級有關。

  • So I can size those, if it's helpful.

    如果有幫助的話,我可以調整它們的大小。

  • And I believe we had shared before.

    我相信我們之前已經分享過。

  • We're expecting -- so the compensation step up, just to be clear, that has to do with the incentive compensation programs we're setting for the fiscal year, that's probably a $30 million to $35 million headwind on the year.

    我們預期薪酬會增加,需要明確的是,這與我們為本財年制定的激勵薪酬計畫有關,這可能會給本財年帶來 3,000 萬至 3,500 萬美元的阻力。

  • Personnel-related costs, which is sort of the typical amount of inflation that we would see year-over-year tied to things like merit and benefits inflation, we would expect that to be around $20 to $25 million.

    與人員相關的成本,這是我們看到的與績效和福利通膨等因素相關的典型通膨金額,我們預計約為 20 至 2500 萬美元。

  • And then a D&A increase year-over-year, which we had indicated in the prepared remarks, was going to be about $10 million to $15 million, and we have a little bit of acquisition carryover from the companies that were acquired inside of fiscal '24, which is about

    然後,我們在準備好的評論中指出,D&A 同比增長將約為 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元,並且我們從在財政年度內收購的公司中獲得了一些收購結轉。

  • [$5 million].

    [500萬美元]。

  • And then I think one thing that Erik will touch on around tighter cost control is absolutely the focus on productivity, which is one of the things that we've done a much better job in this down cycle compared to previous.

    然後我認為埃里克將圍繞更嚴格的成本控制談到的一件事絕對是對生產力的關注,這是我們在這個下行週期中比以前做得更好的事情之一。

  • But maybe let me pause and let Erik weigh on the question around cost controls and then we can move back on anything.

    但也許讓我暫停一下,讓艾瑞克權衡有關成本控制的問題,然後我們就可以重新討論任何事情。

  • Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Dave, so just sort of zooming out for a second, and you're asking a very fair question around -- you look at Q1 and the cost step up relative to revenues.

    是的,戴夫,所以只是稍微縮小一下,你問了一個非常公平的問題 - 你看看第一季以及相對於收入的成本上升。

  • I think -- look, the answer here is if our focus were solely on Q1 and Q2 of fiscal '25, there are other cost actions that we would be taking if the goal was to optimize margins in those two quarters.

    我認為,看,這裡的答案是,如果我們的重點只放在 25 財年的第一季和第二季度,如果目標是優化這兩個季度的利潤率,我們將採取其他成本行動。

  • However, our goal is looking beyond that to restore growth to the company and restore margin expansion.

    然而,我們的目標不僅僅是恢復公司的成長並恢復利潤率的擴張。

  • Growth becomes critical in that.

    成長在這方面變得至關重要。

  • I will tell you, in the meantime, we're managing discretionary -- we are managing discretionary spend.

    我會告訴你,同時,我們正在管理可自由支配的支出——我們正在管理可自由支配的支出。

  • So for instance, if you look across fiscal '24 at total company headcount, it's plus or minus flat and that's with absorbing growth in the sales function due to acquisitions and sellers coming online and the implant program, which means support function headcount is down.

    舉例來說,如果你看看24 財年的公司總人數,你會發現它的正負持平,這是因為收購和賣家上線以及植入計劃導致銷售職能吸收增長,這意味著支持職能的人數有所下降。

  • So we are managing expenses, but to be clear, if the goal were to optimize margins in Q1, Q2, you'd see us taking other cost levers.

    因此,我們正在管理費用,但需要明確的是,如果目標是優化第一季、第二季的利潤率,您會看到我們採取其他成本槓桿。

  • We look out and say, hey, our ambitions for this company are to return it to being a growth company, huge fragmented market, strong value proposition.

    我們展望未來並說,嘿,我們對這家公司的抱負是讓它成為一家成長型公司,擁有巨大的分散市場和強大的價值主張。

  • We still feel very good about the end markets that we're levered into here.

    我們仍然對我們在這裡利用的終端市場感覺非常好。

  • Despite near-term softness, the outlook on most of these end markets is actually quite good.

    儘管近期疲軟,但大多數終端市場的前景實際上相當不錯。

  • So we feel what's critical to getting back to outgrowth above market and margin expansion is we have to get the growth engine going and the productivity pipeline going.

    因此,我們認為,要恢復高於市場的成長和利潤率擴張,關鍵在於我們必須讓成長引擎運轉起來,讓生產力管道運轉起來。

  • So what you're seeing is us being cautious about not pulling levers on the cost side that would impede momentum on the bigger picture.

    因此,您所看到的是,我們對不要在成本方面拉動槓桿持謹慎態度,因為這會阻礙更大的發展勢頭。

  • I would tell you that if we reached a different conclusion and felt this business was not -- were not poised for growth, you'd see us taking a different playbook on the cost side.

    我想告訴你,如果我們得出不同的結論,並認為這項業務沒有準備好成長,你會看到我們在成本方面採取不同的策略。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Dankert, Loop Capital Markets.

    Chris Dankert,Loop 資本市場。

  • Chris Dankert - Analyst

    Chris Dankert - Analyst

  • I guess, first off, Kristen, thanks so much for kind of running through all those components on SG&A.

    我想,首先,Kristen,非常感謝您瀏覽 SG&A 上的所有這些元件。

  • The one piece that I think we were kind of hoping for an update on that wasn't included there was just the digital investment, any quantification on kind of the incremental spending in fiscal '25 versus '24 on the digital and the marketing aspect.

    我認為我們希望更新的內容不包括數位投資,以及 25 財年與 24 財年數位和行銷方面增量支出的量化。

  • Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

    Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, Chris, so there is additional incremental investment.

    是的,克里斯,所以還有額外的增量投資。

  • And then I would add to that on the sequential G&A increase we mentioned, a good chunk of that is from the investments we've been making into digital and technology in previous years.

    然後我想補充一點,我們提到的一般行政費用連續成長,其中很大一部分來自我們前幾年對數位和科技的投資。

  • I'm not going to size it specifically.

    我不會具體確定它的大小。

  • We gave a lot of components on OpEx.

    我們在 OpEx 上提供了很多元件。

  • If I give you the whole range on investment and productivity, I might give -- might as well given full-year OpEx annual guidance, but I hope that the color we've provided in the first half is at least helpful to get you through the first and second quarter.

    如果我給你投資和生產力的全部範圍,我可能會給出——也可能給出全年營運支出年度指導,但我希望我們在上半年提供的顏色至少有助於幫助你度過難關第一季和第二季。

  • Chris Dankert - Analyst

    Chris Dankert - Analyst

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • No, I fully appreciate that.

    不,我完全欣賞這一點。

  • And again the detail is extremely helpful.

    再說一遍,細節非常有幫助。

  • I guess, just secondly, on the website rollout search functionality, can you kind of give us an update on is that progressing still to the most recent plan?

    我想,其次,在網站推出搜尋功能方面,您能為我們介紹一下最新計劃嗎?

  • And then any kind of update in terms of a soft or hard launch on the kind of enhanced marketing investment when that kind of goes live here?

    然後,當這種方式在這裡上線時,會在軟啟動或硬啟動方面進行任何形式的更新,以加強行銷投資嗎?

  • Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Chris, what I tell you, let me start.

    是的,克里斯,我告訴你的,讓我開始吧。

  • On the web, what I would say is, I'd be pleased with how the team has rallied in the past few months.

    在網路上,我想說的是,我對團隊在過去幾個月中的團結感到滿意。

  • And the punchline is we're on plan.

    重點是我們正在按計劃進行。

  • And I talked in the prepared remarks about upgrades in terms of site navigation, in terms of our search algorithm.

    我在準備好的評論中談到了網站導航和搜尋演算法方面的升級。

  • I think the way to think about that is they're going to continue to roll out.

    我認為思考這個問題的方法是他們將繼續推出。

  • This is not going to be a one-and-done, a big bank.

    這不會是一家一勞永逸的大銀行。

  • They're going to continue to make progress.

    他們將繼續取得進步。

  • And what we talked about our commitment on the last call was, hey, that by our fiscal -- in our fiscal second quarter that the website would be ready to support our marketing efforts.

    我們在上次電話會議上談到的承諾是,嘿,到我們的財務 - 在我們的第二財政季度,該網站將準備好支持我們的行銷工作。

  • And we absolutely believe that's the case.

    我們絕對相信情況就是如此。

  • So we're on a plan with the upgrades.

    所以我們正在製定升級計劃。

  • With respect to marketing, I'm not going to give too many details, just it's competitively sensitive, but what I'd also say there, yeah, we would be -- we are on track there with marketing in Q2.

    關於行銷,我不會提供太多細節,只是它具有競爭敏感性,但我還要說的是,是的,我們會在第二季的行銷方面走上正軌。

  • What I -- maybe a little color just in terms of timing, what I'd say on the expense side, I think Kristen covered it and roped it in with our investment spending.

    我——也許只是在時間方面有點色彩,我在費用方面所說的,我認為克里斯汀涵蓋了它並將其與我們的投資支出聯繫起來。

  • From a timing standpoint, our fiscal two run December through February.

    從時間角度來看,我們的財政兩年期從 12 月持續到 2 月。

  • You could have in December, we're anticipating being a little bit -- likely a little bit of a choppy month.

    12 月可能會發生,我們預計這會是一個有點波濤洶湧的月份。

  • We'll have to see how things play out post-election, but you have holidays and such.

    我們必須看看選舉後事情會如何發展,但你有假期等。

  • So certainly after that would seem to be a logical time when we would ramp up the activities on the marketing front.

    因此,在那之後似​​乎是我們加強行銷方面活動的合乎邏輯的時間。

  • And it will be a pretty broad-based marketing campaign, but I'm not going to go into too many details.

    這將是一個基礎相當廣泛的行銷活動,但我不會透露太多細節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Katie Fleischer, KeyBanc.

    凱蒂‧弗萊舍 (Katie Fleischer),KeyBanc。

  • Katie Fleischer - Analyst

    Katie Fleischer - Analyst

  • I wanted to go back to Tommy's question a little bit, just on operating leverage.

    我想稍微回到湯米的問題,只是關於營運槓桿。

  • Can you give any detail about how you're thinking about that outside of 1Q '25?

    您能否詳細說明您在 25 年第一季之外對此有何看法?

  • And I appreciate that visibility is really limited.

    我意識到可見性確實有限。

  • But if we -- if the macro does improve through the year, any sense of how incremental should react to that?

    但如果我們——如果宏觀經濟全年確實有所改善,增量又該如何應對?

  • Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • So maybe, Katie, I'll talk longer term, and then Kristen feel free to add any color you want.

    所以,凱蒂,也許我會談談更長的時間,然後克里斯汀可以隨意添加你想要的任何顏色。

  • But Katie, look, big picture, obviously, '24 was a challenge.

    但是凱蒂,看,大局,顯然,24 歲是一個挑戰。

  • And what we're describing here is '25, the year is coming out of the gates as a challenge, and it's really a combination of a soft macro combined with fixed cost step-ups that we had anticipated.

    我們在這裡描述的是 25 年,這一年即將成為一個挑戰,這實際上是軟宏觀與我們預期的固定成本上漲的結合。

  • I did mention that our outlook longer term is more encouraging.

    我確實提到過,我們的長期前景更加令人鼓舞。

  • And look, we've talked about expanding, getting back to expanding operating margins.

    看,我們已經討論過擴張,回到擴大營業利潤率。

  • We still believe that the business has the capability here of strong incremental margins.

    我們仍然相信該業務有能力實現強勁的利潤增量。

  • So if you look at the setup and what we can't give you right now is timing because we can't predict the environment, but improving execution, certainly on the high touch side of our business, there's embedded market share through implant and vending that's happened that subdued spending levels.

    因此,如果您查看設置,我們現在無法為您提供的是時機,因為我們無法預測環境,但可以提高執行力,當然在我們業務的高接觸方面,透過植入和自動售貨獲得嵌入式市場份額這種情況的發生抑制了支出水準。

  • So when the economy returns in these sectors, we know it will, but we don't know when, we would expect an outsized rebound on the top line for sure.

    因此,當這些產業的經濟復甦時,我們知道它會恢復,但我們不知道什麼時候,我們肯定會預期收入會大幅反彈。

  • And then from there, what we also described as we look beyond '25, fiscal '24 and '25, we've had unusual step-ups in OpEx as we were talking about earlier.

    然後,從那時起,我們也描述了超越「25」、「24」和「25」財年的情況,正如我們之前討論的那樣,我們在營運支出方面取得了不尋常的進步。

  • That normalizes as we get beyond fiscal '25.

    當我們進入 25 財年之後,這種情況就會正常化。

  • So from there, we would expect this business to get back to the historic kind of incremental margins that the business is capable of producing.

    因此,從那時起,我們預計該業務將恢復到該業務能夠產生的歷史性增量利潤。

  • And if you wonder what does that mean?

    如果您想知道這意味著什麼?

  • Certainly, 20% or north of 20% is where we expect to be.

    當然,20% 或 20% 以上是我們的預期。

  • Katie Fleischer - Analyst

    Katie Fleischer - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • That's really helpful.

    這真的很有幫助。

  • My last question is on the hurricane and aero strike.

    我的最後一個問題是關於颶風和航空打擊。

  • So Erik, I know you quantified the impacts of those in the quarter.

    艾瑞克,我知道您量化了本季這些影響的影響。

  • But any detail on how much of an impact aero has been?

    但有關於空氣動力學影響有多大的詳細資訊嗎?

  • Or is that still yet to be seen?

    還是還有待觀察?

  • And then given some of the incremental weakness in ADS from September to October, was that mainly driven by hurricanes?

    然後考慮到 9 月至 10 月 ADS 的一些逐漸疲軟,這主要是由颶風驅動的嗎?

  • Or is there any other color there that you could provide?

    或者你們可以提供其他顏色嗎?

  • Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

    Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Katie, I can start, and maybe I'll hit the question on aero first.

    凱蒂,我可以開始了,也許我會先討論空氣動力方面的問題。

  • Aero throughout FY24 was really a strong point for us in terms of growth.

    整個 2024 財年的航空航太確實是我們成長的優勢。

  • We still saw growth through September, but sequentially, we did see negative growth in the aero end markets.

    整個 9 月我們仍然看到了成長,但隨後我們確實看到了航空終端市場的負成長。

  • So we're really watching that situation closely.

    所以我們正在密切關注這種情況。

  • And one of the key things we'll be looking for, of course, is when does everything resolve, but then what are the expected production rates beyond that?

    當然,我們要尋找的關鍵問題之一是一切何時解決,但除此之外的預期生產力是多少?

  • And what is the ramp-up of that look like?

    那它的加速是什麼樣子的呢?

  • So definitely something we're watching carefully.

    所以這絕對是我們正在仔細觀察的事情。

  • And then I believe your second question was on the hurricane impact, which Erik had touched on.

    然後我相信你的第二個問題是關於颶風的影響,而艾瑞克已經提到過。

  • So we are -- if you think about what we said for September and October and then what we get for the midpoint, it would imply that ADS in November is down a little bit more than 5%.

    所以,如果你考慮我們所說的 9 月和 10 月情況以及我們得到的中點數據,這將意味著 11 月的 ADS 下降了 5% 以上。

  • And there is an improvement, though, within that because of hurricane headwinds easing coming out of October.

    不過,由於十月颶風逆風有所緩解,情況有所改善。

  • Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And Katie, maybe just a little more color would be.

    凱蒂,也許再多一點顏色就好了。

  • What we've seen over the past 1.5 months here as we move from fiscal '24 to fiscal '25.

    當我們從 24 財年轉向 25 財年時,我們在過去 1.5 個月中看到了這一點。

  • Obviously, David Manthey has noted that sequentially things are softer than they've been historically.

    顯然,大衛·曼蒂(David Manthey)指出,接下來的情況比歷史上任何時候都更加疲軟。

  • Where we've seen this, interestingly, we break out our business into public sector, core customers and then the national accounts.

    有趣的是,我們將業務分為公共部門、核心客戶,然後是國民帳戶。

  • The core customer has sort of been relatively stable.

    核心客戶相對穩定。

  • And the performance, if you look at the growth rates has been pretty consistent now for a few quarters.

    如果你看看成長率,那麼現在幾季的表現相當穩定。

  • We expect that to inflect.

    我們預計這會有所改變。

  • And that's our goal is to get that to inflect.

    我們的目標就是讓它發揮作用。

  • But the change recently has actually been in the large accounts arena, and that's an area where we have the tightest handle on our market share position, and we feel really good about execution.

    但最近的變化實際上是在大客戶領域,這是我們對市場份額地位控制最嚴格的領域,我們對執行力感覺非常好。

  • And yet things have softened there further, and we can directly tie that back to some of these end markets and the softening that we've seen there over the past even eight weeks beyond the hurricane noise.

    然而,那裡的情況已經進一步軟化,我們可以直接將其與其中一些終端市場以及我們在過去甚至在颶風噪音之後的八週內看到的軟化聯繫起來。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Patrick Baumann, JPMorgan.

    派崔克鮑曼,摩根大通。

  • Patrick Baumann - Analyst

    Patrick Baumann - Analyst

  • Just maybe, I don't know if it's -- who wants to take the question.

    只是也許,我不知道是誰想回答這個問題。

  • But on gross margin, first of all, like very nice recovery in the quarter.

    但就毛利率而言,首先,本季的復甦非常好。

  • So good to see execution there.

    很高興看到那裡的執行情況。

  • Can you talk about the expectations for gross margin like the cadence through the year?

    您能談談對毛利率的預期嗎?

  • Like, in the sense that would there be reasons for it to do anything other than normal seasonality from the first quarter guide that you provided.

    就像,從某種意義上說,它是否有理由做除了您提供的第一季指南中的正常季節性之外的任何事情。

  • For example, with the core customers, I think you still make a higher gross margin there than the rest of the company.

    例如,對於核心客戶,我認為您仍然比公司其他部門獲得更高的毛利率。

  • And so I would assume if it starts to outgrow the rest of the company, that would help you outperform normal seasonality.

    因此,我認為如果它開始超過公司其他部門的成長,這將幫助你超越正常的季節性。

  • Or maybe there's something you can offer on the pricing environment for the year in terms of price cost, how you're thinking about developing that would make seasonality different for gross margin?

    或者也許您可以在價格成本方面提供有關今年定價環境的一些信息,您如何考慮開發使毛利率的季節性有所不同的產品?

  • Any color around gross in cadence and things that would make it different than normal seasonality would be helpful.

    任何圍繞節奏的顏色以及使其與正常季節性不同的事物都會有所幫助。

  • Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

    Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Happy to provide a little color on that path.

    很高興為這條道路提供一點色彩。

  • And you're absolutely right, the core customer is definitely higher gross margin.

    你說得對,核心客戶一定是更高的毛利率。

  • So as we think about potential outcomes through the year and where gross margin might trend.

    因此,當我們考慮全年的潛在結果以及毛利率可能的趨勢時。

  • That's one thing that we are looking closely at is what the pace and degree of recovery is there and how much that may help us in the second half.

    我們正在密切關注的一件事是復甦的速度和程度,以及這對我們下半年的幫助有多大。

  • But based on what we have in line of sight to right now, we've indicated Q1, we expect it to be 40.8%.

    但根據我們目前的情況,我們已經指出第一季的成長率為 40.8%。

  • What we're seeing for the sequencing in the year is probably a similar level, plus or minus 20 basis points throughout the year.

    我們今年看到的排序可能是類似的水平,全年正負 20 個基點。

  • Price cost, I think we touched on this earlier, we're expecting to be flat-ish from Q4 and then improving throughout the rest of the year.

    價格成本,我認為我們之前已經談到過這一點,我們預計從第四季度開始將持平,然後在今年剩餘時間內有所改善。

  • So that's a little bit of color I would add.

    所以這是我要添加的一點顏色。

  • We've got some productivity coming online within the gross margin space in the second half.

    下半年,我們在毛利率空間內取得了一些生產力。

  • So I would say, if you're sequencing, I'd probably look at that 40.8% plus or minus 20 bps as opposed to sort of the historic sequential movement in gross margin.

    所以我想說,如果你進行排序,我可能會看到 40.8% 正負 20 個基點,而不是毛利率歷史性的連續變動。

  • Patrick Baumann - Analyst

    Patrick Baumann - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So that's a little bit better than historical then because usually fourth quarter -- usually fourth quarter comes down a bit.

    所以這比歷史數據要好一些,因為通常第四季——通常第四季會有所下降。

  • So that's good.

    所以這樣很好。

  • Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

    Kristen Actis-Grande - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

  • It's still early days, Pat.

    現在還為時過早,帕特。

  • So we are going to give more specifics on that as we progress through the year.

    因此,隨著這一年的進展,我們將提供更多細節。

  • But based on what we have insights to now, that's how I'd give you some added color.

    但根據我們現在所掌握的見解,這就是我會給你一些補充的顏色。

  • Patrick Baumann - Analyst

    Patrick Baumann - Analyst

  • No, helpful.

    不,有幫助。

  • I appreciate that, Kristen.

    我很感激,克里斯汀。

  • And then maybe one for Martina.

    然後也許是給瑪蒂娜的。

  • First of all, nice to hear you on the call, I look forward to meeting you at some point.

    首先,很高興聽到您的來電,我期待在某個時候與您見面。

  • On the customer coverage enhancements you talked about, can you talk a little bit more about the complexity of this?

    關於您談到的客戶覆蓋範圍增強,您能多談談其複雜性嗎?

  • I'm asking because the last time I remember the company tried to work on its sales force effectiveness, there was like a change in roles and responsibilities among sellers and it caused like a lot of disruption despite pilots that were encouraging initially.

    我問這個問題是因為我記得上次該公司試圖提高銷售人員的效率時,銷售人員的角色和職責發生了變化,儘管最初的試點令人鼓舞,但它造成了很大的干擾。

  • So maybe if you can talk about exactly what's changing here for the sellers in the territory coverage and the service optimization plans that you highlighted in your prepared remarks.

    因此,也許您可以具體談談您在準備好的評論中強調的區域覆蓋範圍和服務優化計劃方面對賣家來說發生了什麼變化。

  • Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hey, Pat, so maybe what I'll do is -- we're also happy to have Martina to join these calls.

    嘿,帕特,也許我會做的是——我們也很高興有瑪蒂娜加入這些電話會議。

  • I'm going to just -- let me -- because of the historic perspective, I'll start and then I'll turn it over to Martina.

    我將——讓我——從歷史的角度來看,我將開始,然後將其交給瑪蒂娜。

  • But one thing -- a couple of points to make clear because obviously, it is a sensitive one given our history.

    但有一件事——有幾點需要澄清,因為顯然,考慮到我們的歷史,這是一個敏感的問題。

  • I think number one is there's no strategy change here in terms of seller deployment and how we go to market.

    我認為第一是在賣家部署和我們如何進入市場方面沒有策略變化。

  • This is about tightening up the execution of the current plan and strategy as opposed to a new strategy.

    這是關於加強當前計劃和戰略的執行,而不是新戰略。

  • And I think the other thing, and then I'll turn it over to Martina that gives me confidence beyond, obviously, a lot of pressure testing and piloting and learning in the company is Martina brings with her a wealth of experience in a lot of areas, this being one of them with a really good track record of doing this before, which certainly helps.

    我認為另一件事,然後我會把它交給瑪蒂娜,這給了我信心,顯然,除了在公司進行大量的壓力測試、試點和學習之外,瑪蒂娜在很多方面都帶來了豐富的經驗。

  • So with that, I just wanted to make clear, not a student body left here at all in terms of strategy.

    因此,我只是想澄清一下,就策略而言,根本沒有一個學生團體留在這裡。

  • So sorry, Martina.

    很抱歉,瑪蒂娜。

  • Martina Mclsaac - President & Chief Operating Officer

    Martina Mclsaac - President & Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • No, that's fine.

    不,沒關係。

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • So it is not a change in strategy.

    所以這並不是策略的改變。

  • I think that any large organization that runs a large direct sales force needs as a matter of hygiene to constantly review resource deployment and make sure that we have trained people on the best potential.

    我認為,任何擁有大型直銷隊伍的大型組織都需要出於衛生考慮,不斷審查資源部署,並確保我們培訓了具有最佳潛力的人員。

  • So we're using this moment to look at territory design we do respect customer relationships and the sensitivity of them, which is why, as we said, we're going to make these changes over the next couple of quarters.

    因此,我們正在利用這個時刻來審視區域設計,我們確實尊重客戶關係及其敏感性,這就是為什麼,正如我們所說,我們將在接下來的幾個季度進行這些改變。

  • But this is about covering more and the best potential.

    但這是為了挖掘更多、最好的潛能。

  • And I think this should be an ongoing good practice, not an event.

    我認為這應該是一個持續的良好實踐,而不是一個事件。

  • So we start this year and then that's part of our hygiene going forward.

    所以我們從今年開始,這就是我們今後衛生工作的一部分。

  • Patrick Baumann - Analyst

    Patrick Baumann - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So I think I heard you say that you're not moving -- you're not planning to move sellers with strong relationships with customers off of those customer accounts just because of a change in the territory.

    所以我想我聽到你說你不會搬家——你不打算僅僅因為地區的變化而將與客戶關係密切的賣家從這些客戶帳戶中移走。

  • Martina Mclsaac - President & Chief Operating Officer

    Martina Mclsaac - President & Chief Operating Officer

  • Absolutely.

    絕對地。

  • What we've tried to target are areas where we have undercapacity or excess capacity and make sure that we can deploy the resources that we have in the most effective way.

    我們試圖瞄準產能不足或過剩的領域,並確保我們能夠以最有效的方式部署我們擁有的資源。

  • So a solid relationship would not be interrupted.

    這樣牢固的關係就不會中斷。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our question-and-answer session.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。

  • I would like to turn the conference back over to Ryan Mills for any closing remarks.

    我想將會議轉回瑞安·米爾斯(Ryan Mills)發表閉幕詞。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • Ryan Mills - Head of Investor Relations

    Ryan Mills - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you for joining us on today's call, and we're looking forward to seeing you at upcoming investor conferences and talking to you on our next earnings call on January 8.

    感謝您參加今天的電話會議,我們期待在即將召開的投資者會議上見到您,並在 1 月 8 日的下一次財報電話會議上與您交談。

  • Goodbye.

    再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This conference has now concluded.

    本次會議現已結束。

  • Thank you for attending today's presentation.

    感謝您參加今天的演講。

  • You may now disconnect.

    您現在可以斷開連線。