使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the MSC Industrial Supply fiscal 2024 for fourth-quarter and full-year conference call. (Operator Instructions)
早上好,歡迎參加 MSC 工業供應 2024 財年第四季和全年電話會議。 (操作員說明)
Please note, this event is being recorded.
請注意,此事件正在被記錄。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Ryan Mills, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
我現在想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Ryan Mills。請繼續。
Ryan Mills - Head of Investor Relations
Ryan Mills - Head of Investor Relations
Thank you and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2024 earnings call. EErik Gershwind, our Chief Executive Officer; Martina McIsaac, President and Chief Operating Officer, and Kristen Actis-Grande, Chief Financial Officer for on the call with me today.
謝謝大家,早安。歡迎參加我們的 2024 財年第四季財報電話會議。 EErik Gershwind,我們的執行長;總裁兼營運長 Martina McIsaac 和財務長 Kristen Actis-Grande 今天與我通電話。
During today's call, we will refer to various financial data and the earnings presentation and operational statistics documents, both of which can be found on our Investor Relations website. Let me reference our Safe Harbor statement found on Slide 2 of the earnings presentation. Our comments on this call as well as the supplemental information we're providing on the website contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US security laws. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these statements.
在今天的電話會議中,我們將參考各種財務數據以及收益演示和營運統計文件,這些文件都可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。讓我參考一下收益簡報投影片 2 中的安全港聲明。我們對本次電話會議的評論以及我們在網站上提供的補充資訊包含美國安全法含義內的前瞻性聲明。這些前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與這些陳述預期的結果有重大差異。
Information about these risks is noted in our earnings press release and other SEC filings. In addition, during this call, we may refer to certain adjusted financial results, which are non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the GAAP versus non-GAAP reconciliations in our presentation or on our website, which contain the reconciliation of the adjusted financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. And I'll turn the call over to Erik.
有關這些風險的資訊已在我們的收益新聞稿和其他 SEC 文件中註明。此外,在本次電話會議中,我們可能會參考某些調整後的財務業績,這些都是非公認會計原則衡量標準。請參閱我們的簡報或網站上的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調整表,其中包含調整後的財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的調整表。我會把電話轉給埃里克。
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Ryan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before I start, I'd like to share a couple of thoughts on recent current events. Our hearts go out to all of those affected by the major hurricanes that hit the Southeast in recent weeks.
謝謝你,瑞安。大家早安,感謝您今天加入我們。在開始之前,我想分享一些關於最近發生的事件的想法。我們的心與最近幾週襲擊東南部的所有遭受重大颶風影響的人們同在。
I'm relieved to report that our associates in the impacted areas are safe, and MSC remains committed to support the disaster relief and recovery efforts through both monetary donations and by providing products on the Red Cross requests list.
我很欣慰地向大家報告,我們在受影響地區的員工都很安全,MSC 仍然致力於透過捐款和提供紅十字會請求清單上的產品來支持救災和復原工作。
On today's call, I'll reflect on the progress of our mission critical program and our fiscal 2024 for performance. I'll also cover the current environment before passing it over to Martina for begins joining us on these calls to discuss our fiscal 2025 key initiative pipeline. Kristen will then provide more specifics on our fourth quarter financial performance and our initial expectations for fiscal 2025. And we'll then open up the line for questions.
在今天的電話會議上,我將回顧我們關鍵任務計畫的進展以及 2024 財年的績效。我也會介紹當前的環境,然後將其交給 Martina,讓她開始加入我們的電話會議,討論我們 2025 財年的關鍵舉措管道。然後,克里斯汀將提供有關我們第四季度財務業績以及我們對 2025 財年的初步預期的更多細節。
Before getting into any details, let me offer some broader perspective on our mission critical journey. Fiscal 2024 was a challenging year. We have been coming off of a strong three year run during our first mission critical chapter in which we met or exceeded all of our stated goals.
在討論任何細節之前,讓我對我們的關鍵任務之旅提供一些更廣泛的視角。 2024 財年是充滿挑戰的一年。在我們的第一個關鍵任務章節中,我們已經完成了三年的強勁運行,我們達到或超越了所有既定目標。
During fiscal 2024, we faced the deteriorating environment in particularly our metalworking and heavy manufacturing end markets. And compounded that softness with execution challenges in the technology area. Since our last call, I've been encouraged to see how our team has rallied. Despite further softening in the macro. I'm seeing evidence that we are restoring the execution that had been built over the prior three years.
2024 財年,我們面臨日益惡化的環境,尤其是金屬加工和重型製造終端市場。並將這種軟性與技術領域的執行挑戰結合起來。自從我們上次通話以來,看到我們的團隊如何團結起來,我深受鼓舞。儘管宏觀經濟進一步疲軟。我看到有證據表明我們正在恢復過去三年建立的執行力。
First, we're maintaining momentum in our high-touch solutions, which is our first mission critical pillar. During fiscal 2024, we improved our implant program count by 29% to 342 in total installed vending machines by 9% to more than 27,000 in fiscal year end. This growth helped our national accounts. Average daily sales outperformed the IP index by roughly 150 basis points for the full year.
首先,我們保持高接觸解決方案的勢頭,這是我們的第一個關鍵任務支柱。 2024 財年期間,我們的植入計畫數量增加了 29%,達到 342 台,到財年末安裝的自動販賣機總數增加了 9%,達到 27,000 多台。這種增長有助於我們的國民帳戶。全年日均銷售額跑贏 IP 指數約 150 個基點。
Large Account wins continue to be powered by our ability to improve our customers' operations. In fiscal 2024, we presented roughly $500 million in documented savings to our customers. These savings come from tooling recommendations, manufacturing, process improvements, inventory management solutions and more.
大客戶的勝利持續得益於我們改善客戶營運的能力。 2024 財年,我們向客戶提供了約 5 億美元的記錄節省。這些節省來自工具建議、製造、流程改善、庫存管理解決方案等。
Second progress continues on our next mission. Critical pillar, reenergizing the core customer. While core customer growth rates remained suppressed, progress is being made on the critical initiatives that are needed to turn the tide. Our advanced active during the last three months, we improved the overall site experience, including upgrades to our search algorithm, shown in the ops that's posted on our Investor Relations website. E-commerce represents a little more than 60% of total Company revenues, roughly half of which is from sales on www.mscdirect.com.
我們的下一個任務繼續取得第二個進展。關鍵支柱,重振核心客戶。儘管核心客戶成長率仍然受到抑制,但扭轉局勢所需的關鍵舉措正在取得進展。在過去三個月中,我們進行了先進的活動,改善了整體網站體驗,包括升級了我們的搜尋演算法,如我們投資者關係網站上發布的操作所示。電子商務占公司總收入的 60% 多一點,其中大約一半來自 www.mscdirect.com 上的銷售。
As communicated on the last call, we expect the sites to be ready to support an enhanced marketing efforts with the launch of these enhancements in our fiscal second quarter of 2025. Further, we completed our web pricing realignment during fiscal 2024.
正如上次電話會議中所傳達的那樣,我們預計這些網站將準備好支援增強的行銷工作,並在 2025 財年第二季推出這些增強功能。
We see opportunities to continue fine-tuning, and we'll capitalize on those over time. As it relates to gross margins, you'll recall that our expectation was to complete the project with a roughly neutral gross margin outcome.
我們看到了繼續微調的機會,並且隨著時間的推移我們將利用這些機會。由於它與毛利率相關,您會記得我們的期望是以大致中性的毛利率結果完成該項目。
During our fiscal third quarter, we saw an unexpected dip due to the complexity of our pricing system. In discounting algorithms. We took immediate countermeasures and have restored gross margins to expected levels of performance. In fact, our fiscal fourth quarter gross margin outperformed historical sequential averages, thanks to solid execution by our team.
在第三財季,由於定價系統的複雜性,我們出現了意外的下滑。在折扣演算法中。我們立即採取了應對措施,並將毛利率恢復到預期的績效水準。事實上,由於我們團隊的紮實執行,我們第四財季的毛利率超過了歷史連續平均。
Third, we built a strong pipeline of productivity initiatives that will fuel our last mission critical pillar, optimizing our cost to serve these programs begin yielding payback this quarter and are expected to build through the year and into fiscal 2026.
第三,我們建立了一系列強大的生產力計劃,這些計劃將為我們最後一個關鍵任務支柱提供動力,優化服務這些計劃的成本,本季度開始產生回報,預計將在全年和2026 財年實現回報。
First of these initiatives was completed during fiscal 2024, which entailed the difficult decision to close our Columbus CFC. This project will yield savings of $5 million to $7 million annually beginning in the fiscal first quarter. Martina will provide more color shortly on our broader productivity opportunity. Fourth, we made meaningful progress on working capital, resulting in $410 million of operating cash flow or 160% of net income.
第一項舉措於 2024 財年完成,這導致我們做出關閉哥倫布 CFC 的艱難決定。從第一財季開始,該項目每年將節省 500 萬至 700 萬美元。瑪蒂娜很快就會就我們更廣泛的生產力機會提供更多資訊。第四,我們在營運資本方面取得了有意義的進展,營運現金流達到 4.1 億美元,佔淨利的 160%。
And lastly, during our previous call, we mentioned that other technology initiatives, including the upgrade of our back office value streams, were under review. While the work completed to date is sound, we've decided to temporarily pause this project, and we'll resume in a phased approach while we reallocate our focus towards growth and the execution of the initiatives that I've just outlined.
最後,在我們先前的電話會議中,我們提到其他技術舉措,包括後台價值流的升級,正在接受審查。雖然迄今為止完成的工作很順利,但我們決定暫時暫停該項目,我們將分階段恢復,同時將重點重新分配給成長和執行我剛才概述的舉措。
I'll now move to a quick review of our results for the fiscal year on slide 6. Average daily sales declined 4.7%, which includes a headwind of approximately 160 basis points from non-repeating public sector orders in fiscal 2023 and a roughly 70 basis point tailwind from acquisitions.
現在,我將在投影片6 上快速回顧我們本財年的業績。基點的逆風。
Fiscal Full year gross margins of 41.2% improved 20 basis points year over year. This performance was mainly driven by benefits from non-repeating public-sector orders in the prior year and our gross margin countermeasures, which were partially offset by negative price cost and lower margin acquisitions as a result of lower sales and higher operating expenses driven by our strategic investments, both reported and adjusted operating margins declined 190 basis points year over year, 10.2% and 10.7%, respectively. Which is at the high end of our most recent guidance range.
全年財政毛利率為 41.2%,年增 20 個基點。這一業績主要得益於上一年非重複公共部門訂單以及我們的毛利率對策的收益,但部分被負價格成本和較低的利潤率收購所抵消,這是由於我們的銷售額下降和運營費用上升所致。這是我們最新指導範圍的高端。
Together, this resulted in reported earnings per share or $4.58 and adjusted earnings per share of $4.81, approximately $0.17 of the dollar for year over year. Adjusted EPS decline was due to headwinds from higher interest and other expenses.
總計而言,報告每股收益為 4.58 美元,調整後每股收益為 4.81 美元,年比約為 0.17 美元。調整後每股盈餘下降是由於利息和其他費用增加的不利影響。
Looking ahead to fiscal 2025 year begins with a continuation of the challenging outlook we faced in fiscal 2024. Conditions remain soft as evidenced by IP readings, particularly for our top manufacturing end markets. The majority of which are contracting, automotive and heavy truck, primary metals, fabricated metals, machinery and equipment are all week. Aerospace remained positive in the quarter. Forward-looking expectations have been tempered due in part to the recent strikes in the sector.
展望 2025 財年,我們將延續 2024 財年面臨的充滿挑戰的前景。其中大部分是合約、汽車和重型卡車、初級金屬、金屬製品、機械和設備都在本週。航空航天在本季保持樂觀。前瞻性預期有所減弱,部分原因是該行業最近發生的罷工。
The manufacturing and metal working related softness in particular are also evidenced through MBI readings, which have now been negative for 19 straight months. Including the last three consecutive readings of 44 and 43 respectively. This is reflected in our Q1 growth rate as September came out of the gates down 4% and October is trending down between 5% and 6%. The primary drivers remain the same and include the effects of sustained high interest rates leading to reduced spending levels, along with caution from an upcoming presidential election, which is fairly typical.
MBI 讀數也特別證明了與製造業和金屬加工相關的疲軟,現已連續 19 個月為負值。包括最後三個連續讀數分別為44和43。這反映在我們第一季的成長率中,9 月下降了 4%,10 月的下降趨勢在 5% 到 6% 之間。主要驅動因素保持不變,包括持續高利率導致支出水準下降的影響,以及即將舉行的總統選舉的謹慎態度,這是相當典型的。
On top of this, we've seen more recent temporary business disruptions stemming from hurricanes. We estimate the impact from hurricanes resulted in year-over-year ADS. headwinds of 20 to 30 basis points in September and 40 to 50 basis points in October.
除此之外,我們最近也看到颶風造成的暫時性業務中斷。我們估計了颶風對 ADS 的同比影響。 9 月的阻力為 20 至 30 個基點,10 月的阻力為 40 至 50 個基點。
In addition to starting fiscal 2025 with soft conditions were also, as previously communicated, anticipating a step-up in operating expenses primarily attributed to an expected normalization of incentive-related compensation, along with higher depreciation and amortization expense, largely to our digital investments. These factors will suppress operating margins in near term. While the start of fiscal 2025 is tempered, our outlook for fiscal 2026 is more encouraging. We are well positioned as the majority of our sales are mixed into manufacturing end markets. Whose long-term outlook remains strong. In addition, we expect continued market share capture through in-plant vending and other large account wins that are today subdued due to lower spending levels by our customers.
如同先前所傳達的,除了以軟條件開始2025 財年之外,預計營運費用也會增加,這主要歸因於激勵相關薪酬的預期正常化,以及折舊和攤提費用的增加,這主要歸因於我們的數位投資。這些因素將在短期內抑制營業利益率。儘管 2025 財年伊始情況較為緩和,但我們對 2026 財年的展望更加令人鼓舞。我們處於有利地位,因為我們的大部分銷售都進入了製造終端市場。其長期前景依然強勁。此外,我們預計,透過廠內售貨和其他大客戶贏得的市場份額將繼續獲得,但由於客戶支出水平較低,這些份額目前受到抑制。
We also expect to see improved performance from our core customer group as benefits from pricing, e-commerce, marketing and enhancements in sales coverage field over the balance of the fiscal year into 2026, we anticipate operating expenses to level out exiting fiscal 2025 through a combination of moderating depreciation and incentive compensation trends, along with increasing benefits from the current productivity pipeline. And with that, I'll now pass the call over to Martina.
我們也預計,在截至 2026 財年的剩餘時間內,我們的核心客戶群將受益於定價、電子商務、行銷和銷售覆蓋領域的增強,從而實現業績的改善,我們預計營運支出將透過溫和的折舊和激勵性薪酬趨勢結合,以及當前生產力管道帶來的收益不斷增加。現在,我將把電話轉給瑪蒂娜。
Martina Mclsaac - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Martina Mclsaac - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Erik, and good morning, everyone. I'm excited to start joining our quarterly earnings calls.
謝謝你,艾瑞克,大家早安。我很高興開始參加我們的季度財報電話會議。
Turning to slide 7, let's dig into some other focus areas of productivity we have in the pipeline, starting with network optimization. Through our recent study, we identified a portfolio of opportunities to unlock productivity in fiscal year 2025 will begin to execute on a portion of these.
轉向投影片 7,讓我們從網路優化開始,深入探討我們正在開發的其他一些生產力重點領域。透過我們最近的研究,我們確定了 2025 財年釋放生產力的一系列機會將開始實施其中的一部分。
We focus on corner upgrade in three critical areas. First, we have an opportunity to streamline the supply chain for our OEM fastener and fee part category. We intend to consolidate our demand, planning and procurement and simplify the flow of materials to leverage our purchasing power and take costs out of our network.
我們專注於三個關鍵領域的角落升級。首先,我們有機會簡化 OEM 緊固件和收費零件類別的供應鏈。我們打算整合我們的需求、規劃和採購,並簡化材料流程,以利用我們的購買力並降低我們的網路成本。
Second, we're upgrading our use of technology in our system line, inventory planning and allocation. We want to ensure that we have the right inventory at close to our customer as possible to reduce both costs and carbon and service levels to the customer and work more collaboratively with our suppliers. While we continue to realize some working capital benefit through more efficient inventory management.
其次,我們正在升級系統生產線、庫存規劃和分配中的技術使用。我們希望確保我們在盡可能靠近客戶的地方擁有正確的庫存,以降低成本和碳排放以及為客戶提供的服務水平,並與我們的供應商進行更多的協作。同時我們繼續透過更有效率的庫存管理實現一些營運資金效益。
And third, we see opportunity to optimize our management and inbound and outbound freight hitting our business to plan demand, coupled with a more sophisticated demand forecasting, an allocation of inventory will lead to recast gaming split shipments and a lower reliance on airfreight.
第三,我們看到了優化我們的管理和進出境貨運的機會,以規劃需求,再加上更複雜的需求預測,庫存分配將導致重新調整遊戲分割出貨量並降低對空運的依賴。
The combined benefit to both cost of goods sold and operating expenses at these three actions are expected to be $10million to $15 million in combined annualized maintaining. These benefits will be begin building this fiscal year and represent a small subset of the Total Fina will identify an opportunity. Keep you updated on our progress as we move through the year.
這三項行動的銷售成本和營運費用的綜合收益預計為每年 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元的綜合維護。這些效益將於本財年開始建設,僅佔國際泳聯將確定的機會總數的一小部分。讓您隨時了解我們今年的最新進展。
Now moving to the right of this slide, we're also taking action to unlock productivity and sales and customer facing roles. Third, our core customers better. We see opportunity to maximize seller of potential through an enhanced and data-driven territory model. This will result in optimized field selling portfolios in terms of size and reach. We're encouraged by the results from the pilot of this model and believe this will sustain actually expand the sales REP access to addressable spend.
現在轉到這張投影片的右側,我們也採取行動來釋放生產力、銷售和麵向客戶的角色。第三,我們的核心客戶做得更好。我們看到了透過增強的數據驅動的區域模型來最大化潛在賣家的機會。這將導致現場銷售組合在規模和覆蓋範圍方面得到最佳化。我們對該模型試點的結果感到鼓舞,並相信這將真正擴大銷售 REP 獲得可尋址支出的機會。
These changes are expected to be completed over the next two to three quarters. In addition to the changes we're making with core customers that we're making similar adjustments in national account. This will allow our team to expand coverage into more underpenetrated locations and will be completed in the first quarter.
這些變化預計將在未來兩到三個季度內完成。除了我們對核心客戶所做的改變之外,我們還在國民帳中進行類似的調整。這將使我們的團隊能夠將覆蓋範圍擴大到更多滲透不足的地點,並將在第一季完成。
We also see an opportunity to improve time to money on larger wins. We've launched a program targeting this opportunity. And during the pilot phase, we reduced solution implementation time on our largest wins with the most complex needs by more than 50%.
我們也看到了在更大的勝利中縮短賺錢時間的機會。我們針對這個機會啟動了一項計劃。在試點階段,我們將最大的勝利和最複雜的需求的解決方案實施時間縮短了 50% 以上。
And lastly, we're making changes to bolster performance in the field. We recently enhanced our onboarding process of new hires with customized training roadmap for every unique selling role to accelerate the time to perform for our mature reps, we implemented a new sales tool.
最後,我們正在做出改變以增強該領域的性能。我們最近增強了新員工的入職流程,為每個獨特的銷售角色量身定制了培訓路線圖,以加快成熟銷售代表的工作時間,我們實施了新的銷售工具。
They drive enhanced analytics to our sellers to enable more cross-selling opportunity in support of our customers' needs and growth. These actions allow us to target more than $300 million in growth with minimal incremental investment.
他們為我們的賣家提供增強的分析,以提供更多交叉銷售機會來支援客戶的需求和成長。這些行動使我們能夠以最少的增量投資實現超過 3 億美元的成長目標。
And with that, I'll turn it over to Kristen to cover our fourth quarter results and outlook.
接下來,我將把它交給克里斯汀,介紹我們第四季的業績和前景。
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Martina, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 8 for indicating key metrics for the fiscal fourth quarter. On a reported an adjusted basis. Fiscal fourth quarter sales of $952 million declined 8% year over year on an average daily sales basis, which includes a headwind related to non-repeating public sector orders in the prior year of approximately 300 basis points.
謝謝你,瑪蒂娜,大家早安。請參閱投影片 8,以了解第四財季的關鍵指標。根據報告調整後的基礎上。第四財季銷售額為 9.52 億美元,以日均銷售額計算,年減 8%,其中包括與前一年非重複公部門訂單相關的逆風約 300 個基點。
The remaining 500 basis points year over year decline was primarily driven by lower volumes, which were partially offset by benefits from acquisitions. Sequentially, our average daily sales declined by approximately 1%. It's worth noting that the adverse impact of FX contributed 20 basis points of the sequential decline by customer type, national accounts declined 2% year over year.
其餘 500 個基點的年減主要是因為銷售下降所致,但部分銷售量被收購帶來的收益所抵銷。隨後,我們的日均銷售額下降了約 1%。值得注意的是,以客戶類型劃分,外匯的不利影響導致季減20個基點,國民帳戶較去年同期下降2%。
During the quarter, only 34 of our top 100 account show growth, which is a reflection of the softness being seen in our top end market for and other customers declined approximately 7% by the public sector declined approximately 28% due to large non-repeating orders in the prior year.
本季度,我們的前 100 個客戶中只有 34 個出現成長,這反映了我們高端市場的疲軟,其他客戶下降了約 7%,公共部門由於大量非重複客戶下降了約 28%上一年的訂單。
Excluding this impact, public sector sales would have shown a year-over-year decline in the mid-single digit range. Sequentially, average daily sales improved approximately 3% in the public sector, national accounts performed roughly flat and core customers declined approximately 2%. From a solutions standpoint, we continue growing the number of implant programs and installed vending machines.
排除此影響,公共部門的銷售額將出現中個位數的年減。隨後,公共部門的日均銷售額成長了約 3%,國民帳戶表現大致持平,核心客戶下降了約 2%。從解決方案的角度來看,我們繼續增加植入程序和安裝的自動販賣機的數量。
However, the average daily sales performance of these solutions reflects the current demand environment as the continued growth of our installed base was largely offset by lower levels of activity and vending. Q4. Average daily sales were flat year over year and represented 17% of total company net sales. Sales to our implant programs grew 5% year-over-year and represented approximately 16% of total company net sales.
然而,這些解決方案的平均每日銷售表現反映了當前的需求環境,因為我們的安裝基礎的持續成長在很大程度上被較低的活動和販賣水準所抵消。 Q4。日均銷售額與去年同期持平,占公司總淨銷售額的 17%。我們的植體項目銷售額年增 5%,約占公司總淨銷售額的 16%。
Moving to profitability for the quarter, gross margin of 41% improved 50 basis points year over year and 10 basis points quarter over quarter sequentially. Outperforming historic seasonal patterns. Our team's ability to quickly rectify the issues that hampered gross margin during the rollout of our enhanced pricing structure in Q three was the primary driver of sequential improvement in the fourth quarter.
轉向本季的獲利能力,毛利率為 41%,較去年同期提高 50 個基點,較上季提高 10 個基點。超越歷史季節性模式。我們的團隊在第三季推出增強定價結構期間快速糾正阻礙毛利率的問題的能力是第四季度連續改善的主要推動力。
Operating expenses in the fourth quarter were approximately $297 million and $296 million on a reported an adjusted basis respectively. On an adjusted basis, operating expenses were up $7 million compared to 4Q of last year. Combined with lower sales year over year. This resulted in a 320 basis points increase in adjusted operating expense as a percentage of sales.
根據調整後的報告,第四季營運費用分別約為 2.97 億美元和 2.96 億美元。調整後的營運費用比去年第四季增加了 700 萬美元。加上銷售額逐年下降。這導致調整後營運費用佔銷售額的百分比增加了 320 個基點。
Sequentially, adjusted operating expenses were up $7 million and performed as expected. The primary drivers of the step-up or non-repeating benefit and variable compensation expense in 3Q as well as higher D&A and acquisition related costs. Reported operating margin for the quarter was 9.5% compared to 11.4% in the prior year. On an adjusted basis, operating margin of 9.9% declined 270 basis points year over year. Gaap earnings per share of $0.99 declined $0.57 compared to the prior year period. On an adjusted basis, EPS was $1.3 compared to $1.64 in the prior year.
隨後,調整後的營運費用增加了 700 萬美元,並且表現符合預期。第三季階梯式或非重複性福利和可變薪酬費用以及更高的 D&A 和收購相關成本的主要驅動因素。本季度報告的營業利潤率為 9.5%,而去年同期為 11.4%。調整後的營業利益率為 9.9%,較去年同期下降 270 個基點。美國通用會計準則每股收益 0.99 美元,較上年同期下降 0.57 美元。調整後每股收益為 1.3 美元,上年度為 1.64 美元。
Approximately $0.05 of the year over year decline was related to currency impacts in Mexico. Additionally, our higher tax rate in the quarter represented a headwind of another $0.07, which is primarily driven by the derecognition of certain tax assets.
年比下降約 0.05 美元與墨西哥的貨幣影響有關。此外,我們本季較高的稅率又帶來了 0.07 美元的阻力,這主要是由於某些稅務資產的終止確認造成的。
Now let's turn to Slide 9 to review our balance sheet and cash flow performance. We continue to maintain a healthy balance sheet with net debt of approximately $479 million, representing roughly one times EBITDA.
現在讓我們轉向投影片 9 來回顧我們的資產負債表和現金流表現。我們繼續保持健康的資產負債表,淨債務約為 4.79 億美元,約為 EBITDA 的一倍。
Working capital with a favorable source of cash in the quarter including the contribution of roughly $27 million from reductions in inventories and receivables. This resulted in another strong quarter of operating cash flow with a conversion rate of 199% in 4Q and 160% for the fiscal year, well above our stated target of greater than 125%. Capital expenditures decreased $2 million year over year to approximately $26 million.
本季營運資金擁有良好的現金來源,包括庫存和應收帳款減少帶來的約 2,700 萬美元的貢獻。這導致營運現金流又一個強勁的季度,第四季的轉換率為 199%,本財年的轉換率為 160%,遠高於我們設定的超過 125% 的目標。資本支出年減 200 萬美元,至約 2,600 萬美元。
Together, this drove strong free cash flow generation of approximately $81 million in fiscal 4Q and $311 million for the full year, both of which were well above net income. Our balance sheet and cash generation remained strong and continue to fuel our capital allocation priorities shown on Slide 10. We deployed cash and several of these buckets during the year, including for strategic acquisitions and $1.9 million in share repurchases with 250,000 repurchase in 4Q. We also continue to maintain a healthy dividend yield through modest increases to the ordinary dividend as seen by the announced increase of $0.02 earlier this month.
這共同推動了第四財季約 8,100 萬美元的自由現金流和全年 3.11 億美元的強勁自由現金流,兩者均遠高於淨利潤。我們的資產負債表和現金產生能力仍然強勁,並繼續推動我們的資本配置優先事項(如幻燈片10 所示)。和190 萬美元的股票回購,其中第四季回購了25 萬股。我們還透過適度增加普通股息來繼續保持健康的股息收益率,正如本月早些時候宣布的增加 0.02 美元所示。
Moving on to our expectations for fiscal 2025, given uncertainty in the current environment, and we will start the year providing a quarterly outlook and return with a longer-range perspective as the environment stabilizes. However, we will provide longer-term insight on certain line items to help you with the expected cadence for the fiscal year.
考慮到當前環境的不確定性,接下來我們對 2025 財年的預期,隨著環境趨於穩定,我們將在年初提供季度展望和更長期的回報。但是,我們將提供某些訂單項目的長期見解,以幫助您了解本財年的預期節奏。
Starting with our outlook for the fiscal first quarter on slide 11, we expect average daily sales declined 4.5% to 5.5% year over year. Our expected range takes into consideration quarter to date sales, which are down 4.2% in September and an estimated decline of approximately 5% to 6% for the month of October.
從投影片 11 對第一財季的展望開始,我們預期日均銷售額將年減 4.5% 至 5.5%。我們的預期範圍考慮了季度至今的銷售額,9 月份銷售額下降 4.2%,10 月預計將下降約 5% 至 6%。
This implies a little to no improvement in November due to uncertainty stemming from the upcoming election, the continuation of end market softness and potential shutdown activities by customers around the Thanksgiving holiday. Under this revenue assumption, we expect adjusted operating margin to fall in the range of 7% to 7.5%, which takes into consideration the following my gross margins of 40.8% plus or minus 20 basis points and a step up and adjusted operating expenses compared to the fiscal fourth quarter of approximately $8 million. This step-up is being driven by the resetting of the nuclear and higher D&A.
這意味著由於即將到來的選舉帶來的不確定性、終端市場持續疲軟以及感恩節假期期間客戶可能關閉活動,11 月的情況略有改善或沒有改善。在此收入假設下,我們預計調整後的營業利潤率將下降在7% 至7.5% 的範圍內,其中考慮到了以下40.8% 的毛利率正負20 個基點以及與去年相比的逐步調整後的營業費用第四財季約800萬美元。這項升級是由核和更高級別 D&A 的重置推動的。
Turning to Slide 12, we've outlined our expectation on certain line items. For the full year. We expect depreciation and amortization costs to be roughly $90million to 95 million, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately $10million to $15 million.
轉向投影片 12,我們概述了我們對某些訂單項目的期望。全年。我們預計折舊和攤提成本約為 9,000 萬至 9,500 萬美元,年增約 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元。
This largely reflects the investments made in technological and digital capabilities as well as continued growth in spending. Other underlying assumptions include interest and other expense of roughly $45 million. Capital expenditures, including cloud computing arrangements at $100 million to $110 million and a tax rate between 24.5% and 25%. Strong free cash flow generation is expected to continue in this fiscal year end to be approximately 100% of net income.
這在很大程度上反映了對技術和數位能力的投資以及支出的持續成長。其他基本假設包括約 4500 萬美元的利息和其他費用。資本支出,包括1億至1.1億美元的雲端運算安排以及24.5%至25%之間的稅率。強勁的自由現金流預計將在本財年末繼續產生,約佔淨利潤的 100%。
To assist in modeling the cadence of sales for the remainder of the fiscal year. The bottom of the slide provides historical quarter over quarter averages and key considerations. Lastly, we have the same number of business days year over year throughout each quarter and fiscal 2025. As shown at the bottom of the chart, some of that, we will open the line for Q&A.
協助對本財年剩餘時間的銷售節奏進行建模。幻燈片底部提供了歷史季度平均值和關鍵考慮因素。最後,我們每季和 2025 財年的工作日數量與去年同期相同。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員說明)
Tommy Moll, Stephens.
湯米·莫爾,史蒂芬斯。
Tommy Moll - Analyst
Tommy Moll - Analyst
Good morning and thank you for taking my questions.
早上好,感謝您回答我的問題。
Good morning, everyone. So, you called out on Slide 4 of the top five industry groups, which is helpful, particularly given some of the divergence there. And so I'll I'll ask a question that we may not get the exact answer to, but if you can just point us directionally, I think it would be helpful to the investor community of. Do you have any rough rule of foam? How much of your business each of those five industries drives or do you think of them collectively as a rough fraction of your your overall revenue? I'm just trying to get a sense of how we can think about those five and the magnitude they may have the callouts useful. I'm just trying to go the next step here.
大家早安。因此,您在投影片 4 上列出了排名前五的行業群體,這很有幫助,特別是考慮到那裡存在一些分歧。所以我會問一個我們可能無法得到確切答案的問題,但如果你能為我們指明方向,我認為這會對投資者群體有所幫助。你對泡沫有什麼粗略的規則嗎?這五個行業分別對您的業務有多少貢獻,或者您是否認為它們共同佔您總收入的大致比例?我只是想了解我們如何看待這五個以及它們對標註的有用程度。我只是想在這裡進行下一步。
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, Tom, and good morning. So, the first thing I'd say is take a look what we do break out. So, we don't give specific end market detail, but we you can see is our Heavy Manufacturing breakout. So that's the first place to start, which, as you know, is the majority of our big chunk of our manufacturing exposure, heavy manufacturing, which is levered towards metal working over the heavy manufacturing. While we don't break it out specifically, what I can tell you is that the enumerated some end markets or the bulk of that heavy manufacturing number.
是的,湯姆,早安。所以,我想說的第一件事就是看看我們所做的突破。因此,我們沒有提供具體的終端市場細節,但您可以看到我們的重型製造突破。所以這是第一個開始的地方,正如你所知,這是我們製造業敞口的大部分,重型製造業,它是針對金屬加工而不是重型製造業。雖然我們沒有具體說明,但我可以告訴您的是,所列舉的一些終端市場或大部分重型製造數量。
So, what you're seeing there is heavy manufacturing portfolio right now is particularly soft with the exception of one that we called out being aerospace, which remains positive a little tempered were positive. The others who have been quite negative. But I think one of the best proof points for that we shared in the prepared remarks, I mean, if you look at our largest hundred accounts, so these are accounts where we have a very good relationship and a good share position in and it was 34 out of 100 of growing that would be illustrative of what we're seeing here. So punch line is what we laid out and what we enumerated would make up the bulk of the manufacturing.
因此,您現在看到的重型製造業投資組合特別疲軟,但我們稱之為航空航太業的投資組合除外,該投資組合仍然積極,但略有緩和。其他人則相當消極。但我認為最好的證明點之一是我們在準備好的發言中分享的,我的意思是,如果你看看我們最大的一百個帳戶,所以這些帳戶是我們擁有非常良好的關係和良好的股票地位的帳戶。因此,妙語就是我們佈置的內容,我們所列舉的內容將構成製造的大部分內容。
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
If I can assure you that a little bit of a finer point on that, it's roughly about half the business that are those top five end markets and machinery and equipment directionally is the largest aero and auto are about 10%. And that's what we can sort of attribute directly into those end markets. We have some additional end-market indirect exposure, but that's what we have kind of clean line of sight to.
如果我可以向您保證,在這一點上,大約有一半的業務屬於前五個終端市場,而機械和設備方向上最大的航空和汽車業務約佔 10%。這就是我們可以直接歸因於這些終端市場的原因。我們有一些額外的終端市場間接風險,但這就是我們有清晰的視線。
Tommy Moll - Analyst
Tommy Moll - Analyst
So thank you both. And then as a follow-up, I wanted to touch on the framework you provided for the first fiscal quarter and for the year. And given the uncertainty, we certainly understand the new lighter than typical metrics that you've provided. But I just wanted to do my best to get us all in the same page here on some of the margin points. Kristen, you've given us helpful. Jumping off points for the first fiscal quarter, both for gross margin and operating expense.
所以謝謝你們兩個。然後,作為後續行動,我想談談您為第一財季和今年提供的框架。考慮到不確定性,我們當然理解您提供的比典型指標更簡單的新指標。但我只是想盡我最大的努力讓我們在一些邊緣點上達成一致。克里斯汀,你給了我們很大的幫助。第一財季毛利率和營運費用的跳躍點。
What do you want us to know that you can share today on either of those points? And so what I have in mind here is whatever you view your typical sequential progression to be on a gross margin standpoint, any big deviations from that we should we should bear in mind.
您希望我們知道您今天可以在這兩點上分享什麼?因此,我在這裡想到的是,無論您從毛利率的角度看待典型的連續進展,還是我們應該牢記的任何重大偏差。
And then also just maybe even philosophically, how you're thinking about managing the operating expense, the fixed and variable pieces of that as we go through this year. Anything you could share just to give us on the same page with would help. Thanks.
然後,甚至從哲學角度來看,您如何考慮管理營運費用,以及我們今年經歷的固定和可變部分。您可以分享的任何內容只要讓我們在同一頁上都會有所幫助。謝謝。
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. So maybe let me start, Tommy, just reiterating what we communicated in Q1. The prepared remarks. So we're thinking the midpoint based on what we can see right now, ADSs about down five and then 40.8% gross margin plus or minus 20 basis points. I think you've got the OpEx noted.
是的。湯米,讓我開始重申我們在第一季溝通的內容。準備好的言論。因此,我們正在根據目前所看到的情況來考慮中點,ADS 大約下降 5 個基點,然後毛利率下降 40.8%,上下浮動 20 個基點。我想您已經注意到了營運支出。
We had indicated about an $8 million step-up of some of the midpoint of the range. We had an up margin is about 7.25. Within that we've kind of communicated before. Maybe let me touch on the OpEx side.
我們已表示在該範圍的中點基礎上增加約 800 萬美元。我們的上漲幅度約為 7.25。我們之前已經在其中進行過交流。也許讓我談談營運支出方面。
First, we do have kind of a one-time step up is coming from D&A from the resetting of the compensation programs. On the gross margin side, we're really pleased with how Q4 ended with instead of 2024 good execution by the team on recovering as price repositioning and stability that happened in Q4.
首先,我們確實從薪酬計劃的重置中得到了 D&A 的一次性提升。在毛利率方面,我們對第四季度的結束感到非常滿意,團隊在第四季度的價格重新定位和穩定中恢復了良好的執行力,而不是 2024 年。
And then as we think about Q4 moving into Q1, just directionally, we're thinking flattish price cost Q4 to Q1, and they may be beyond that. I know we're not giving an annual outlook. It is really uncertain now, as you commented, and we do have very limited visibility, but a perhaps a little bit more color on sequencing that maybe will always help with the first half directionally.
然後,當我們考慮第四季度進入第一季時,就方向而言,我們認為第四季度到第一季的價格成本持平,而且可能會超出這個範圍。我知道我們不會給予年度展望。正如您所評論的,現在確實不確定,而且我們的能見度確實非常有限,但在排序上可能有更多的色彩,這也許總是有助於上半場的方向。
And we have we talked about revenue in 1Q being down five. So if you think about kind of how we're expecting Q1 to Q2 sequential to play out, and I would I would note that historical five-year average that we had put on the slides in the presentation.
我們談到第一季的營收下降了五倍。因此,如果您考慮我們預計第一季到第二季將如何連續發揮作用,我會注意到我們在簡報中放在投影片上的歷史五年平均值。
And right now, we don't anticipate any notable change in that macro-environment through calendar year 2024, seven. So and that's all the reasons we hit in the prepared remarks and specific to December, I think it's important to note that we are expecting to see a larger amount of holiday shutdowns in the month, which is very similar to what we had seen in 2023 calendar 2024. I'm sorry.
目前,我們預計到 2024 年第七年宏觀環境不會有任何顯著變化。因此,這就是我們在準備好的評論中提到的所有原因,特別是12 月,我認為值得注意的是,我們預計12 月將出現更多的假期關閉,這與我們在2023 年看到的情況非常相似2024 年曆。
Finally, with respect to the rest of the first half, what remains to be seen is the snapback that happened in January and February, and that's a little bit more color on first half. And then obviously, what we're really looking towards the second half, we noted some of the initiatives on the slide in the investor presentation that we're really helping would change the course of the second half sequential averages that we've seen. And that's, of course, the web enhancements to marketing initiatives. And then Martinhighlighted some new things around selling effectiveness, southward at least help cover this a little bit kind of I guess maybe the last thing, let me hit on OpEx. Q1 into Q2. Just to give you one more point on first half might expect there's another small step-up Q1 to Q2 on the OpEx, and that's because of the timing of the annual salary inflation increases.
最後,關於上半年的其餘部分,還有待觀察的是一月和二月發生的反彈,這讓上半年的色彩更加豐富。顯然,我們對下半年的真正期望是,我們注意到投資者簡報幻燈片上的一些舉措,我們真正幫助的將改變我們所看到的下半年連續平均的進程。當然,這就是行銷活動的網路增強。然後馬丁強調了一些有關銷售效率的新事物,向南至少有助於涵蓋這一點,我想也許是最後一件事,讓我談談營運支出。 Q1 進入 Q2。只是為了給您多一點上半年的信息,您可能會期望營運支出從第一季到第二季再次出現小幅上升,這是因為年度薪資通膨增加的時間。
Tommy Moll - Analyst
Tommy Moll - Analyst
So the D&A will be fully at the run rate for Q1, but the book it wouldn't just answer it more step up still,
因此,D&A 將完全按照第一季的運行速度,但書上它不會只是回答這個問題,還會進一步加強,
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Tommy, but it gets washed out by other things like the top end of the key ones to Q2 is really around personnel-related costs.
湯米,但它被其他因素沖淡了,例如第二季度關鍵成本的上限實際上是與人員相關的成本。
Tommy Moll - Analyst
Tommy Moll - Analyst
Okay. Noted. Thank you all talked about. Thanks, Tom.
好的。著名的。謝謝大家談到。謝謝,湯姆。
Operator
Operator
Ryan Merkel, William Blair.
瑞恩·梅克爾、威廉·布萊爾。
Ryan Merkel - Analyst
Ryan Merkel - Analyst
Thanks for taking the questions.
感謝您提出問題。
I wanted to follow up on a couple of the prior questions. So the slide 12, should we be viewing that as guidance? Or are you sort of communicating that you think you'll do better than the average sequential given some of the initiatives that you have?
我想跟進之前的幾個問題。那麼投影片 12,我們應該將其視為指導嗎?或者你是否在傳達這樣的訊息:考慮到你所採取的一些舉措,你認為你會比平均順序做得更好?
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, I can take that question. So that is really a reference point for. We recognize we're not giving annual guidance or an outlook. So we would expect that when all of you were starting your modeling, you're looking at how historic sequencing would play out. So that's really more of a reference point as to what our past five years have been.
是的,我可以回答這個問題。所以這確實是一個參考點。我們認識到我們不會提供年度指導或展望。因此,我們預計,當你們所有人開始建模時,都會考慮歷史排序將如何發揮作用。因此,這實際上更多是我們過去五年的參考點。
We don't know if it's going to look like that or not. If we if we did, we'd be giving you more specificity on an annual range. And we really don't know at this point, we would expect the initiative to kick in in the second half, which are some of the considerations that we've noted on the slide.
我們不知道它是否會像那樣。如果我們這樣做,我們將為您提供有關年度範圍的更多具體資訊。目前我們確實不知道,我們預計該舉措將在下半年啟動,這是我們在幻燈片中註意到的一些考慮因素。
But beyond that, I don't have any more to share as to what we have visibility into at this point,
但除此之外,對於我們目前所了解的情況,我沒有更多可以分享的,
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
The right areas. one is, as Kristen said, how quickly the initiatives come online.
正確的領域。正如克里斯汀所說,其中之一是這些舉措上線的速度有多快。
And you'll look, as I said in the prepared remarks, we're encouraged by the execution that we're seeing here coming off of 2024, where we had hiccups in one area the company, but variable number two is also the macro trend. Part of the reason we didn't give our normal annual framework here is because visibility is fairly limited and we just don't know post-election, you have interest rates coming down.
正如我在準備好的發言中所說,我們對 2024 年的執行感到鼓舞,我們在公司的一個領域遇到了問題,但第二個變數也是宏觀因素趨勢。我們沒有在這裡給出正常的年度框架的部分原因是因為可見度相當有限,而且我們只是不知道選舉後利率會下降。
We don't know how quickly do things ramp. We do know that we've taken a long time with very low levels of MBI readings. And at some point history says at some point in the not-too-distant future, things are going to turn, but we just can't call it.
我們不知道事情進展得有多快。我們確實知道,我們花了很長時間才獲得非常低的 MBI 讀數。歷史告訴我們,在不遠的將來的某個時刻,事情將會轉變,但我們無法預測它。
Ryan Merkel - Analyst
Ryan Merkel - Analyst
Yes. No, I appreciate that. It's very murky to put it lightly. Okay. Um, and then SG&A. So it sounds like you have a step-up one Q a little higher 2Q. I guess a two-part question. Does it stay stable from there in the second half of the 2Q levels for you talked about some OpEx cost cutting that you may be doing.
是的。不,我很欣賞這一點。輕描淡寫就很晦澀了。好的。嗯,然後是SG&A。所以聽起來你有一個升壓 1 Q 比 2Q 稍高一點。我想這是一個由兩個部分組成的問題。在第二季下半年,它是否保持穩定,因為您談到了您可能正在做的一些營運支出成本削減。
So it can you quantify that? Just curious how much of that will help and 2025 or if there's a lot of up to 2026?
那你可以量化嗎?只是好奇這對 2025 年有多大幫助,或者到 2026 年是否有很多幫助?
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. I can add a little more detail on that, Ryan. So for the second half, the way that I would think about that relative to the information I just provided on first half is really volume becomes the big drivers, or however, you're layering in your volume assumptions in the second half, and that's the big mover on OpEx on a dollar basis.
是的。我可以添加更多細節,瑞安。因此,對於下半年,相對於我剛剛在上半場提供的信息,我的思考方式實際上是交易量成為了主要驅動因素,或者但是,您在下半年對交易量假設進行了分層,這就是以美元計算,營運支出是最大的推動者。
There is a lot of movement within that specific to investments in productivity. And as you noted, so we are expecting a decent amount of productivity generation in fiscal 2025. You heard mentioned a few of the projects that we're working on the network optimization study. We've got the benefit through color on this that will be building in the second half. We're also dealing with some increased D&A throughout the year. And we've got some investment that will still remain throughout fiscal 2025.
其中有許多針對生產力投資的變化。正如您所指出的,我們預計 2025 財年將產生可觀的生產力。我們透過色彩獲得了好處,這將在下半年建立。我們還在全年處理一些增加的 D&A。我們的一些投資仍將保留到 2025 財年。
So all of those moving pieces on kind of taken together remodeling perspective, I would really encourage you to look at how the volume is coming in and directionally used by 8% to 10% of volume on that. They took a 9% of revenue volume-based expenses.
因此,從整體重塑的角度來看,所有這些移動部件,我真的鼓勵您看看體積是如何進入的,並定向使用 8% 到 10% 的體積。他們根據收入量收取 9% 的費用。
Ryan Merkel - Analyst
Ryan Merkel - Analyst
Okay, very helpful. Thank you.
好的,非常有幫助。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
David Manthey, Baird.
大衛曼蒂,貝爾德。
David Manthey - Analyst
David Manthey - Analyst
Good morning, everyone. It seems like we're all circling around the same thoughts here. But well, look at the quarter to quarter progression from third quarter to the fourth quarter actual it looks pretty normal based on what you laid out in slide 12, that five year average. If we were looking at your guidance, though, I think the quarter-to-quarter progression is minus 3.4 from this fourth quarter to what you're guiding for the first quarter.
大家早安。似乎我們都在思考同樣的想法。但是,好吧,看看從第三季到第四季的季度進展,根據您在投影片 12 中列出的五年平均值,實際情況看起來相當正常。不過,如果我們查看您的指導,我認為從第四季度到您第一季的指導,季度環比增速為負 3.4。
If you were to extend that chart on slide 12 and talk about what the five-year averages on quarter to quarter from for first, you know, if that is we had calculated, but it is these are we just heard from you.
如果您要擴展幻燈片 12 上的圖表,並首先討論每個季度的五年平均值,您知道,如果這是我們計算過的,但這些是我們剛剛從您那裡聽到的。
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Dave, you're asking if you calculate out just to be clear on your question, if you were to play out the five year and start sequential through the year based off the 1Q jump off point, where would you get for the year?
戴夫,你問你是否為了弄清楚你的問題而計算出來,如果你要計算五年並根據第一季的跳躍點開始連續一年,那麼你今年會得到什麼?
David Manthey - Analyst
David Manthey - Analyst
No, I'm just looking at each of those boxes.
不,我只是看每個盒子。
You say here's what the normal progression is from the quarter for the next quarter. And I'm asking you what is that normal progression from Q4 to Q1?
您說這是從本季到下個季度的正常進度。我問你從第四季到第一季的正常進展是什麼?
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Our fourth quarter for Q4 normally.
我們的第四季通常為第四季。
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Ethically up 1%.
道德上提高了1%。
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, one typically then on the five-year.
是的,通常是五年期。
David Manthey - Analyst
David Manthey - Analyst
Okay. So just give us an idea of what this what the guidance is.
好的。請讓我們了解一下指導是什麼。
Again, the calculation looks like it's down about more than 3% of its normally up one. That just gives us an idea of the magnitude that we're looking at there. Okay.
同樣,計算結果看起來比正常上漲的價格下跌了 3% 以上。這只是讓我們了解了我們所看到的規模。好的。
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good day home, just to underscore, you're exactly right. And it really drops back to what we're talking about with the end market weakness right now.
祝你回家愉快,只是為了強調一下,你是完全正確的。它確實回到了我們現在談論的終端市場疲軟的情況。
So clearly you're hitting on is right that the Q1 performance is well below what would be a typical seasonal average. And again, as we drill in there, it's been a change, a softening, particularly in these end markets.
很明顯,您的觀點是正確的,第一季的表現遠低於典型的季節性平均值。再次,當我們深入那裡時,這是一種變化,一種軟化,特別是在這些終端市場。
You go back to the third quarter, the top 100 growing. Think another thing to look at what we're seeing right now is that the vending stat that Kristen highlighted earlier, where vending signings, if you look at our vending accountants plus 9% and yet vending revenue growth is flat.
你回到第三季度,前 100 名成長。想想我們現在看到的另一件事是克里斯汀之前強調的自動售貨統計數據,如果你看看我們的自動售貨會計師,自動售貨簽名增加了9%,但自動售貨收入增長持平。
So on a per machine basis, obviously things are down, things are soft. So what you're seeing is different from a typical year for sure. Right now, the question is obviously what we just don't know is what happens from here.
因此,就每台機器而言,顯然情況有所下降,情況很疲軟。所以你所看到的肯定與平常的年份不同。現在的問題顯然是我們不知道接下來會發生什麼。
David Manthey - Analyst
David Manthey - Analyst
Got it. Thanks, Erik.
知道了。謝謝,埃里克。
And then on the SG&A from based on triangulating the data that you gave us, it looks like on operating expenses will be up at least from low single digits year over year in the in the first quarter. And I'm just comparing that to the top line trends. And I'm wondering I know you're making a lot of strategic investments, but I am just wondering why doesn't operating expense flex down more with the weak sales trends you've seen? And then it's kind of related to that as we it's Kristen, we kind of gave us the details on the year.
然後,根據您提供給我們的數據進行三角測量,SG&A 看起來營運費用至少會比第一季的低個位數年增。我只是將其與頂線趨勢進行比較。我想知道您正在進行大量策略性投資,但我只是想知道為什麼營運費用沒有隨著您所看到的疲軟銷售趨勢而進一步下降?然後這與此相關,因為我們是克里斯汀,我們向我們提供了這一年的詳細資訊。
So as these web enhancements and marketing programs are rolled out in the second quarter, you're not seeing any incremental cost elements that will come in as a result of that. You mentioned some of the compensation reset some things. But is there anything related to the web enhancements and marketing programs in the second quarter as well?
因此,隨著這些網路增強功能和行銷計劃在第二季度推出,您不會看到因此而產生的任何增量成本因素。你提到了一些補償重置了一些東西。但第二季是否也有與網路增強和行銷計劃相關的事情?
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dave. Kristen, take the last part of your question first, maybe and then I want to answer the first part around just why we aren't seeing cost flex down more, which is a fair question. Kristen, I just wanted to know how to think about the web marketing first.
戴夫.克里斯汀,也許先回答你問題的最後一部分,然後我想回答第一部分,為什麼我們沒有看到成本彈性進一步下降,這是一個公平的問題。克里斯汀,我只是想知道如何首先考慮網路行銷。
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. So, we really want to simplify the OpEx answered before, Dave, but there is incremental investment throughout the year. So in Q2, for example, we have the marketing program coming online that will create a sequential increase. These investments. We have other productivity initiatives that are covering that, which is why I kind of alluded to the one Talk Candlestick really being around personnel related expenses. And it's a similar strictly the second half. We have productivity ramping up. There is some incremental investments throughout the year.
是的。所以,戴夫,我們確實想簡化之前回答的營運支出,但全年都有增量投資。例如,在第二季度,我們推出了行銷計劃,這將創造連續成長。這些投資。我們還有其他生產力計劃涵蓋了這一點,這就是為什麼我提到了一個真正圍繞人員相關費用的談話燭台。下半場也是如此。我們的生產力不斷提高。全年都有一些增量投資。
Holistically, we are expecting productivity to outweigh the amount we're investing this year. But as we've talked about before, on a full-year basis, there are still some big step-ups that we're dealing with. And I think we've talked about those on a previous call, but that really has to do when the compensation programs resetting and ID. and a step-up that we're dealing with.
總體而言,我們預計今年的生產力將超過我們的投資金額。但正如我們之前談到的,就全年而言,我們仍然面臨一些重大的進步。我想我們在之前的電話中已經討論過這些問題,但這確實與補償計劃重置和 ID 有關。以及我們正在處理的升級。
So I can cite those if it's helpful. I believe we have shared before and we're expecting for the compensation step up. And just to be clear that have to do with the incentive compensation programs resetting for the fiscal year. That's probably a $30 million to $35 million headwind on a year of personnel related costs, which is sort of the typical amount of inflation that we would see year over year tied to things like Marriott and benefits inflation.
所以如果有幫助的話我可以引用它們。我相信我們之前已經分享過,我們期待著補償的增加。需要明確的是,這與本財年重置的激勵薪酬計畫有關。對於一年的人事相關成本來說,這可能是 3000 萬至 3500 萬美元的逆風,這是我們逐年看到的與萬豪和福利通膨等相關的典型通膨金額。
We would expect that to be around 20 to 25 and then a D&A increase year over year, which we had indicated in the prepared remarks, was going to be about $10million to 15 million.
我們預計這一數字約為 20 至 25 美元,然後 D&A 逐年增加(我們在準備好的評論中已表明)將約為 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元。
And we have a little bit of acquisition carryover from the companies that were required inside of assets, the platform, which is about five.
我們從資產、平台內部所需的公司獲得了一些收購結轉,大約有五個。
And I think one thing that Erik will touch on around tighter cost control is absolutely the focus on productivity, which is one of the things that we've done a much better job in this down cycle compared to previous. But maybe let me pause and an outlier way on the question around cost control, and then we can look back on anything.
我認為埃里克將圍繞更嚴格的成本控制談到的一件事絕對是對生產力的關注,這是我們在這個下行週期中比以前做得更好的事情之一。但也許讓我暫停一下,以一種異常的方式來討論有關成本控制的問題,然後我們就可以回顧一切。
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, Dave. So just sort of zooming out for a second, and you're asking a very fair question around you look at Q1 in the call up relative to revenues.
是的,戴夫。因此,只要稍微縮小一下範圍,您就會問一個非常公平的問題,看看電話中相對於收入的第一季。
I think look, the answer here is if our focus solely on Q1 and Q2 of fiscal 2025, there are other cost actions that we would be taking if the goal was to optimize margins in those two quarters.
我認為,答案是,如果我們只關注 2025 財年第一季和第二季度,如果目標是優化這兩個季度的利潤率,我們還會採取其他成本行動。
However, our goal is going beyond that to restore growth to the Company and restore margin expansion. Growth becomes critical in that. I will tell you in the meantime, we're managing discretionary. We are managing discretionary spend. So, for instance, if you look across fiscal 2024 for a total company head count, it's plus or minus flat. And that's with absorbing growth in both online and the implant program, which means support functions.
然而,我們的目標不僅僅是恢復公司的成長和恢復利潤率的擴張。成長在這方面變得至關重要。同時,我會告訴你,我們正在酌情管理。我們正在管理可自由支配的支出。因此,舉例來說,如果您查看 2024 財年的公司總人數,您會發現正負持平。這是線上和植入計劃的吸收性增長,這意味著支援功能。
Headcount is down. So we are met operating expenses. But to be clear, if the goal was to optimize margins in Q1, Q2, you'd see us taking other cost levers. We look out and say, hey, our ambitions for this company or to return it to being a growth company, huge fragmented market, strong value proposition. We still feel very good about the end markets that were delivered in Turkey or despite near-term softness, the outlook on most of these markets is actually quite good.
人數減少了。所以我們得到了營運費用。但需要明確的是,如果目標是優化第一季、第二季的利潤,您會看到我們採取其他成本槓桿。我們展望未來並說,嘿,我們對這家公司的抱負,或者讓它成為一家成長型公司、巨大的分散市場、強大的價值主張。我們仍然對土耳其交付的終端市場感覺非常好,或者儘管近期疲軟,但大多數這些市場的前景實際上相當不錯。
So we feel what's critical to getting back to our growth above market and margin expansion is we have to get the growth engine going and the product could productivity pipeline going. So what you're seeing is us being cautious about not pulling levers on the cost side that would impede momentum On the bigger picture.
因此,我們認為,要恢復高於市場的成長和利潤率擴張,關鍵在於我們必須讓成長引擎運轉起來,讓產品生產力管道運轉起來。因此,您所看到的是,我們對不在成本方面拉動槓桿持謹慎態度,因為這會阻礙更大的發展勢頭。
I would tell you that if we reached a different conclusion and felt this business was not were not poised for growth, you'd see us taking a different playbook on the call side.
我想告訴你,如果我們得出不同的結論,並認為這項業務沒有準備好成長,你會看到我們在看漲期權方面採取不同的策略。
David Manthey - Analyst
David Manthey - Analyst
I appreciate the commentary. Thank you.
我很欣賞你的評論。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Chris Dankert, Loop Capital Markets.
Chris Dankert,Loop 資本市場。
Chris Dankert - Analyst
Chris Dankert - Analyst
And thanks for taking the questions. I wanted to just so I guess first off, Kristen, thanks so much for kind of running through all those components on SG&A. The one piece that I think we were hoping for an update on that wasn't include there was just on the other digital investment. Any quantification on how the incremental spending in fiscal 2025 versus 2024 on the digital marketing aspect?
感謝您提出問題。我想首先,Kristen,非常感謝您瀏覽 SG&A 上的所有這些元件。我認為我們希望更新的內容沒有包括在另一個數位投資上。有沒有量化 2025 財年與 2024 財年在數位行銷方面的增量支出如何?
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, Chris. So, there is additional incremental investment. And then I would add to that on a sequential G&A increase, we mentioned a good chunk of that is from the investment we've been making into digital and technology in previous years.
是的,克里斯。因此,還有額外的增量投資。然後我想補充一點,關於連續的一般行政費用增加,我們提到其中很大一部分來自我們前幾年對數字和技術的投資。
I'm not going to sided specifically, we gave a lot of components on OpEx. If I if I give you the whole ranges on investment in productivity and might I will give my as well, given full year OpEx annual guidance. But I hope that the color we provided on the first half, it is at least helpful to get through the first and second quarter.
我不會具體站在一邊,我們在營運支出上提供了很多組件。如果我向您提供生產力投資的全部範圍,我是否也會提供我的全年營運支出年度指引。但我希望我們上半場提供的顏色,至少對度過第一和第二季有幫助。
Chris Dankert - Analyst
Chris Dankert - Analyst
Yes. No, I fully appreciate that. Thank you. And I think of the detail of extremely helpful. I guess just secondly, on the website rollout search functionality, can you kind of give us an update on how is that progressing still to the most recent plan? And then any kind of update in terms of a soft or hard launch on the kind of an enhanced marketing investment when when that kind of goes live here?
是的。不,我完全欣賞這一點。謝謝。而且我認為細節極為有幫助。我想其次,在網站推出搜尋功能方面,您能為我們介紹一下最新計畫的進展嗎?然後,當這種加強行銷投資的軟啟動或硬啟動何時在這裡上線時,會有任何更新嗎?
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, Chris. So what I'd tell you, let me start on the web. What I would say is I guess I'd be pleased with how the team has rallied in the past few months. And the punch line is we're on plan and you've got to talk to in the prepared remarks about upgrades in terms of site navigation in terms of our search algorithm. And I think the way to think about that, they're going to continue to roll out.
是的,克里斯。所以我要告訴你的是,讓我從網路開始。我想說的是,我想我會對球隊在過去幾個月的團結感到滿意。重點是我們正在計劃中,您必須在準備好的評論中討論我們的搜尋演算法的網站導航升級。我認為考慮這個問題的方式是,他們將繼續推出。
This is not going to be a one and done a big bank. They're going to continue to make progress. And you know what we talked about. Our commitment on the last call was, hey, the by far fiscals in our fiscal second quarter, that the website would be ready to support our marketing efforts.
這不會是一家大銀行。他們將繼續取得進步。你知道我們談論了什麼。我們在上次電話會議上的承諾是,嘿,到目前為止我們第二財季的財務狀況,該網站將準備好支持我們的行銷工作。
And we absolutely believe that's the case. So we're on plan with the upgrades. With respect to marketing, I'm not going to give too many details, just it's competitively sensitive. But what I'd also say there, yes, we would be onshore. We are on track there with marketing in Q2 with a maybe a little color just in terms of timing, what I'd say.
我們絕對相信情況就是如此。所以我們正在計劃升級。關於行銷,我不會提供太多細節,只是它是競爭敏感的。但我還要說的是,是的,我們會在岸上。我想說,我們在第二季的行銷工作正步入正軌,只是在時間安排上可能有點色彩。
On the expense side, I think Christine covered it and looked at it with our investment spending from a timing standpoint, our fiscal to run December through February, you could imagine December, we're anticipating being a little bit of likely a little bit of a choppy months.
在費用方面,我認為克里斯汀涵蓋了這一點,並從時間的角度來看我們的投資支出,我們的財務從 12 月持續到 2 月,你可以想像 12 月,我們預計會有點可能有點波濤洶湧的幾個月。
We'll have to see how things play out post election, but you have holidays and such. So certainly after that would seem to be a logical time when we would ramp up the activities on the marketing front. And it will be a pretty broad-based marketing campaign. But I'm not going to go into too many details.
我們必須看看選舉後事情會如何發展,但你有假期等等。因此,在那之後似乎是我們加強行銷方面活動的合乎邏輯的時間。這將是一個基礎相當廣泛的行銷活動。但我不會透露太多細節。
Chris Dankert - Analyst
Chris Dankert - Analyst
Makes sense. So, thanks so much closer to us.
有道理。所以,非常感謝離我們更近的人。
Operator
Operator
Katie Fleischer, KeyBanc.
凱蒂‧弗萊舍 (Katie Fleischer),KeyBanc。
Katie Fleischer - Analyst
Katie Fleischer - Analyst
Hey, good morning, guys. So, we're indicating. I wanted to go back to Tommy's question a little bit on just on operating leverage. Can you give any detail about how you're thinking about that outside of 1Q 25? And I appreciate that.
嘿,早上好,夥計們。所以,我們正在表明。我想回到湯米關於營運槓桿的問題。您能否詳細說明您在 25 年第一季之外對此有何看法?我很欣賞這一點。
You know, visibility is really limited, but if we if the macro does improve through the year, any sense of how incremental should react to that?
你知道,能見度確實有限,但如果宏觀經濟在這一年確實有所改善,增量該如何應對?
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, sure, some. So maybe, I'll talk longer term and then Kristen can feel free to add any color you want. But gum, you look big picture. Obviously, 2024 was a challenge in what we're describing here is 25 years coming out of the gates is a challenge.
是的,當然,有一些。所以也許,我會談論更長的時間,然後克里斯汀可以隨意添加你想要的任何顏色。但是口香糖,你看起來很大。顯然,2024 年是一個挑戰,而我們在這裡描述的 25 年是一個挑戰。
And it's really a combination of a softer macro combined with fixed cost step-ups that we had that we had anticipated. I did mention that our outlook longer term is more encouraging, and we've talked about expanding getting back to expanding operating margins. We still believe that the business has the capability here of strong incremental margin.
這實際上是宏觀經濟疲軟與我們預期的固定成本上漲相結合的結果。我確實提到過,我們的長期前景更加令人鼓舞,而且我們已經討論過擴大營業利潤率。我們仍然相信該業務有能力實現強勁的利潤增量。
So, if you look at the setup and what we can't give you right now is to timing because we can't predict the environment but improving execution. Certainly, on the high touch side of our business, there's embedded market share through implant and vending that's happened at subdued spending levels.
所以,如果你看看設置,我們現在不能給你的是時機,因為我們無法預測環境,但可以提高執行力。當然,在我們業務的高接觸方面,透過植入和自動販賣機在支出水平較低的情況下獲得了嵌入的市場份額。
So, when the economy returns in these sectors and we will, but we don't know when we would expect an outsized rebound on the top pipeline for sure. And then from there, you know what we also described as we look beyond fiscal 2024- 2025, we've had unusual step-ups in OpEx as we were talking about earlier that normalizes, we get beyond fiscal 2025.
因此,當這些行業的經濟復甦時,我們會的,但我們不知道什麼時候我們會預期頂級管道會大幅反彈。然後,從那時起,您知道我們在展望2024-2025 財年之後的情況時也描述了這一點,正如我們之前討論的那樣,我們在運營支出方面出現了不尋常的提升,我們在2025 財年之後實現了正常化。
And so from there, we would expect this business to get back to the historic kind of incremental margins that the business is capable of producing. And if you wanted to what does that mean? Certainly 20% or north of 20% is where we expect a bit.
因此,從那時起,我們預計該業務將恢復到該業務能夠產生的歷史性增量利潤。如果你想的話,那又代表什麼?當然,20% 或 20% 以上是我們所期望的。
Katie Fleischer - Analyst
Katie Fleischer - Analyst
Okay, thanks. That's really helpful.
好的,謝謝。這真的很有幫助。
My question is on the hurricane and aero strike. So you're going to have you quantified the impact on those in the quarter. But any detail on how much of an impact Arrow has been? Or is that still yet to be seen on? And then given some of the incremental weeks in the U.S. from September to October, was that mainly driven by hurricanes? Or is there any other color there that you could provide?
我的問題是關於颶風和航空打擊。因此,您需要量化對本季的影響。但有關於《綠箭俠》產生了多大影響的詳細資訊嗎?或還沒看到嗎?然後考慮到美國從 9 月到 10 月的一些增量週數,這主要是由颶風推動的嗎?或者你們可以提供其他顏色嗎?
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. Katie, I can start and maybe I'll hit the question on aero first. Antero throughout FY 24 was a really strong point for us in terms of growth. And we still saw growth through September. But sequentially, we did see negative growth in the aero and Mark, because that we're really watching that situation closely. And I'm one of the key things we'll be looking for and of course, is when does everything resolved, but then what are the expected production rates on that? And what does the ramp up of that look like? So definitely something we're watching carefully.
是的。凱蒂,我可以開始了,也許我會先解決空氣動力方面的問題。 Antero 整個 24 財年對我們的成長來說是一個真正的強點。整個九月我們仍然看到了成長。但隨後,我們確實看到了航空和馬克的負成長,因為我們確實在密切關注這種情況。我是我們要尋找的關鍵問題之一,當然,一切何時解決,但預期的生產力是多少?那麼它的成長是什麼樣的呢?所以這絕對是我們正在仔細觀察的事情。
And I believe your second question was on the hurricane impact, which Erik had touched on. And so, we are if you think about what we set for September and October and then what we gave at the midpoint, it would imply that on a de november is down a little bit more than 5%.
我相信你的第二個問題是關於颶風的影響,而艾瑞克已經提到過。因此,如果你考慮我們為 9 月和 10 月設定的價格以及我們在中點給出的價格,這將意味著 11 月的下跌略高於 5%。
And there is improvement, though, within that because of hurricane headwinds using coming out of October.
不過,由於十月的颶風逆風,情況有所改善。
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Katie, maybe just a little more color would be with what we've seen over the past month-and-a-half here as we move from fiscal 2024 fiscal 2025, you obviously David Manthey had noted that sequentially, things are softer than they've been historically, where we've seen this. Interestingly, we break out our business into public sector core customers and then the national accounts, the core customer has sort of been relatively stable in the performance. If you look at the growth rate has been pretty consistent now for a few quarters now we expect that to inflect, and that's our goal to get that to inflect.
凱蒂,當我們從2024 財年轉向2025 財年時,也許我們在過去一個半月裡所看到的情況會更加豐富多彩,你顯然大衛·曼西已經註意到,接下來的情況會比現在更加疲軟從歷史上看,我們已經看到過這一點。有趣的是,我們將業務分為公共部門核心客戶,然後是國民帳戶,核心客戶的表現相對穩定。如果你看看成長率在幾個季度中一直相當穩定,我們預計成長率會發生變化,這就是我們的目標是讓它發生變化。
But the change recently has actually been in the large account Serena, and that's an area where we have the tightest standalone, our market share position and we feel really good about execution and yet things have softened there further, and we can directly tie that back to some of these end markets and the softening that we've seen there over the past, even eight weeks beyond the hurricane noise.
但最近的變化實際上是在大客戶 Serena 中,這是我們擁有最嚴格的獨立市場份額地位的領域,我們對執行力感覺非常好,但那裡的情況已經進一步軟化,我們可以直接將其聯繫起來其中一些終端市場以及我們過去看到的疲軟情況,甚至是颶風過後八週的情況。
Katie Fleischer - Analyst
Katie Fleischer - Analyst
Got it. Okay. That's very helpful. Thanks for taking the questions.
知道了。好的。這非常有幫助。感謝您提出問題。
Operator
Operator
Patrick Baumann, JPMorgan.
派崔克鮑曼,摩根大通。
Patrick Baumann - Analyst
Patrick Baumann - Analyst
So good morning. Thanks for effort. Let me have shown here this morning. How are you just some maybe I don't know if it's who wants to take questions on gross margin, first of all, like very nice recovery in the quarter. Tommy, so you could see execution there. Can you talk about the expectations for gross margin like the cadence through the year, like in the sense that would there be reasons for it to do anything other than normal seasonality from the first quarter guide that you provided, for example, with the core customers, I think I think you still make higher gross margin there than the rest of the than the rest of the Company on.
早安.感謝您的努力。讓我今天早上在這裡展示一下。你們怎麼樣,也許我不知道是誰想回答有關毛利率的問題,首先,例如本季非常好的復甦。湯米,所以你可以在那裡看到執行情況。您能否談談對毛利率的預期,例如全年的節奏,從某種意義上說,除了您提供的第一季指南中的正常季節性之外,是否有理由採取任何其他措施,例如與核心客戶的聯繫,我認為你的毛利率仍然高於公司其他部門。
And so I would assume if it starts to outgrow the rest of the company that would help you outperform normal seasonality or on maybe there's some please and offering the pricing and that's helping that would make seasonality differently for gross margin and any color around gross margin cadence and things that would make your different than normal seasonality would be helpful.
因此,我認為,如果它開始超過公司的其他部分,這將幫助您超越正常的季節性,或者也許有一些請提供定價,這將有助於使毛利率和毛利率節奏周圍的任何顏色的季節性有所不同那些能讓你與正常季節性不同的事情會很有幫助。
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, happy to provide a little color on that. And you're absolutely right. The core customer is definitely higher gross margin side. We think about potential outcomes through the year and where gross margin trend. That's one thing that we are looking closely at is what the pace and degree of recovery in there and how much that may help us in the second half basin, we have line of sight to right now. We've indicated Q1, we expect to be 40.8%.
是的,很高興對此提供一點顏色。你是完全正確的。核心客戶肯定是毛利率較高的一方。我們考慮全年的潛在結果以及毛利率趨勢。我們正在密切關注的一件事是那裡的復甦速度和程度,以及這對我們在下半盆地有多大幫助,我們現在已經看到了。我們已經指出第一季度,我們預計為 40.8%。
And what we're seeing for the sequencing in the year is probably a similar level, plus some plus or minus 20 basis points throughout the year. On price cost, I think we touched on this earlier. We're expecting to be flattish from Q4 and then improve moving throughout the rest of the year. And so that's a that's a little bit of color would aggregate from productivity coming online within the gross margin space in the second half. And so I would say I think your sequencing I'd probably look at that 14.8 plus or minus 20 best as opposed to starting the historic on sequential movement in gross margin.
我們今年看到的排序可能是類似的水平,加上全年的一些正負 20 個基點。關於價格成本,我想我們之前已經談到過這一點。我們預計從第四季度開始將持平,然後在今年剩餘時間內有所改善。因此,下半年毛利率空間內的生產力將帶來一點色彩。所以我想說,我認為你的排序我可能會考慮 14.8 正負 20 最好,而不是開始毛利率的歷史性連續變動。
Patrick Baumann - Analyst
Patrick Baumann - Analyst
Okay. So that's a little bit better than the historical them because usually fourth quarter usually Q4 comes down a bit.
好的。所以這比歷史數據要好一些,因為通常第四季通常會有所下降。
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kristen Actis-grande - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
So that's from that's connected. Okay. And then play it? It's still early days past that we are going to give more specifics on that as we progress through the year. But based on we have insight to now that's that's fine. You some added color.
這就是連接的原因。好的。然後玩呢?隨著今年的進展,我們將提供更多細節,現在還為時過早。但根據我們現在的了解,這很好。你添加了一些顏色。
Patrick Baumann - Analyst
Patrick Baumann - Analyst
No, I appreciate that Christmas home. And then maybe one for Martina. First of all, Tom, nice to hear you on the call it forward to meeting you at some point home on the customer coverage enhancements you talked about. Can you talk a little bit more about the complexity of this? I'm asking because last time I remember the Company tried to you work on its sales force effectiveness.
不,我很欣賞那個聖誕之家。然後也許是給瑪蒂娜的。首先,湯姆,很高興聽到您打電話來,我們將在某個時候與您會面,討論您談到的客戶覆蓋增強。您能多談談這個問題的複雜性嗎?我問這個問題是因為我記得上次公司試圖讓您提高其銷售團隊的效率。
There was like a change in roles and responsibilities among sellers can cause like a lot of disruption despite pilots that were encouraging initially. So maybe you can talk about exactly what's changing here for the sellers in the territory coverage and service optimization plans that you highlighted in your prepared remarks.
儘管試點最初令人鼓舞,但賣家之間角色和責任的變化可能會造成許多幹擾。因此,也許您可以具體談談您在準備好的發言中強調的區域覆蓋範圍和服務優化計劃對賣家來說發生了什麼變化。
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Erik Gershwind - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hey, Pat. So maybe what I'll do is we're also happy to have marketed joining this call. I'm going to just limit because of the historic perspective, I'll start and then I'll turn it over to Martina. But one thing I had a couple of a couple of points to make clear because obviously it is a sensitive one given our history.
嘿,帕特。因此,也許我會做的是,我們也很高興在行銷上加入這次電話會議。由於歷史角度的原因,我將進行限制,我將開始,然後將其交給瑪蒂娜。但有一件事我有幾點需要澄清,因為考慮到我們的歷史,這顯然是一個敏感問題。
I think number one is there's no strategy change here in terms of a seller deployment and how we go to market. This is about tightening up the execution of the current plan and strategy as opposed to a new strategy. And I think the other thing and then I'll turn it over to Martina. It gives me confidence beyond obviously, a lot of pressure testing and piloting and learning in the Company is Martina brings with her a wealth of experience in a lot of areas.
我認為第一是在賣家部署和我們如何進入市場方面沒有策略變化。這是關於加強當前計劃和戰略的執行,而不是新戰略。我想到了另一件事,然後我會把它交給瑪蒂娜。顯然,這給了我信心,公司的大量壓力測試、試點和學習是瑪蒂娜在許多領域帶來的豐富經驗。
This being one of them with a really good track record of doing this before, which would certainly help. So with that, I just wanted to make clear not a not a student body left here at all in terms of strategy. So sorry, Martina.
這是他們之前在這方面擁有良好記錄的人之一,這肯定會有所幫助。因此,我只是想澄清,就策略而言,這裡根本沒有一個學生團體留下來。很抱歉,瑪蒂娜。
Martina Mclsaac - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Martina Mclsaac - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. No, that's fine. Yes. Thanks for the question.
是的。不,沒關係。是的。謝謝你的提問。
So it is not a change in strategy. I think that any large organization that runs the large direct sales force needs, doesn't matter hygiene, constantly review resource deployment and make sure that we have trained people on the potential that we're using this moment to look at at territory design.
所以這並不是策略的改變。我認為,任何擁有大量直銷隊伍的大型組織都不需要考慮衛生問題,不斷審查資源部署,並確保我們對人員進行了培訓,讓他們了解我們利用此時此刻來研究區域設計的潛力。
But we do respect customer relationships and the sensitivity of them, which is why, as we said, we're going to make these changes over the next couple of quarters. And but this is about covering more and the best potential. And I think it should be an ongoing and good practice, notan event. So we start here. And then on that side of our hygiene going forward.
但我們確實尊重客戶關係及其敏感性,這就是為什麼,正如我們所說,我們將在接下來的幾季做出這些改變。但這是為了挖掘更多、最好的潛能。我認為這應該是一個持續的良好實踐,而不是一個事件。所以我們從這裡開始。然後在我們的衛生方面繼續前進。
Patrick Baumann - Analyst
Patrick Baumann - Analyst
Okay. So I think I heard you say that you're not moving you're not planning to move sellers with with strong relationships with customers, offer those customer accounts just because of the change in that territory?
好的。所以我想我聽到你說你不會搬遷,你不打算搬遷與客戶關係密切的賣家,僅僅因為該地區的變化而提供這些客戶帳戶?
Martina Mclsaac - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Martina Mclsaac - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Absolutely. What we what we tried to targeted are areas where we have under capacity or excess capacity and make sure that we can deploy the resources that we have in the most effective way. So a solid relationship would not be interrupted.
絕對地。我們試圖瞄準的是產能不足或產能過剩的領域,並確保我們能夠以最有效的方式部署我們擁有的資源。這樣牢固的關係就不會中斷。
Patrick Baumann - Analyst
Patrick Baumann - Analyst
Very helpful. Thanks. Thanks so much. Best of luck with all this.
非常有幫助。謝謝。非常感謝。祝你好運。
Martina Mclsaac - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Martina Mclsaac - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
And here, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ryan Mills for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.
到這裡,我們的問答環節就結束了。我想將會議轉回瑞安·米爾斯(Ryan Mills)發表閉幕詞。請繼續。
Ryan Mills - Head of Investor Relations
Ryan Mills - Head of Investor Relations
Thank you for joining us on today's call, and we're looking forward to seeing you at upcoming investor conferences and talking to you on our next earnings call on January 8.
感謝您參加今天的電話會議,我們期待在即將召開的投資者會議上見到您,並在 1 月 8 日的下一次財報電話會議上與您交談。
Operator
Operator
About This conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
關於本次會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。