摩根士丹利 (MS) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to Morgan Stanley's second-quarter 2026 earnings call. On behalf of Morgan Stanley, I will begin the call with the following information and disclaimers. This call is being recorded.

早安。歡迎參加摩根士丹利 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。我將代表摩根士丹利，以以下資訊與免責聲明開始本次會議。本次會議將被錄音。

During today's presentation, we will refer to our earnings release and financial supplement, copies of which are available at morganstanley.com. Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Morgan Stanley does not undertake to update the forward-looking statements in this discussion.

在今天的簡報中，我們將引用我們的財報新聞稿與財務補充資料，其副本可於 morganstanley.com 取得。今天的簡報可能包含前瞻性陳述，該等陳述受風險與不確定性影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。摩根士丹利不承諾更新本次討論中的前瞻性陳述。

Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures that appear in the earnings release. This presentation may not be duplicated or reproduced without our consent.

請參閱財報新聞稿中關於前瞻性陳述與非 GAAP 衡量指標的相關聲明。未經我們同意，本簡報不得複製或重製。

I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ted Pick.

接下來我將把電話會議交給董事長兼執行長 Ted Pick。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us. In the second quarter, Morgan Stanley again delivered top-line and bottom-line record results, with revenues exceeding $21 billion and EPS of $3.46, marking an exceptional first half for 2026. The $42 billion of revenue, $6.90 in EPS, and a 27% return on tangible.

早安。感謝各位加入我們。第二季，摩根士丹利再次交出營收與獲利雙雙創紀錄的成績，營收超過 210 億美元、每股盈餘（EPS）為 3.46 美元，為 2026 年上半年寫下卓越表現。上半年營收 420 億美元、EPS 6.90 美元，以及 27% 的有形股東權益報酬率。

Across wealth and investment management, total client assets stand at $10 trillion, fulfilling a Morgan Stanley strategic milestone. Our client acquisition funnel will continue to drive wealth management's superb performance. And with the passage of time, we seek to grow standalone wealth assets from the current $8 trillion to $10 trillion.

在財富管理與投資管理方面，客戶資產總額達到 10 兆美元，達成摩根士丹利的一項策略里程碑。我們的客戶獲取漏斗將持續推動財富管理的卓越表現。並且隨著時間推進，我們希望將目前 8 兆美元的獨立財富資產成長至 10 兆美元。

Buoyed by active markets, our results reflect multiple years of disciplined investment and consistent execution, positioning the integrated firm to deliver strong results. Our advice-based businesses are working well together across our leading global investment bank and scaled wealth and asset management franchises to deliver industry-leading growth.

在活躍市場的帶動下，我們的業績反映了多年來有紀律的投資與一貫的執行力，使整合型公司具備交出強勁成果的定位。我們以諮詢為核心的業務在領先的全球投資銀行，以及具規模的財富與資產管理平台之間協同運作良好，帶動業界領先的成長。

In Institutional Securities, our deep client relationships, global footprint, and connectivity across businesses drove a record top-line quarter of $11 billion. Dialogue with clients remains high and strategic activity has momentum. In Investment Banking, Morgan Stanley led landmark IPOs in the quarter while helping unlock broader client pipelines. As institutional clients sought access to global markets, our equities franchise provided client solutions around the world, resulting in an exceptional $6.3 billion quarter.

在機構證券業務方面，我們深厚的客戶關係、全球布局，以及跨業務的連結性，推動單季營收創紀錄達 110 億美元。與客戶的對話仍然頻繁，策略性活動也持續累積動能。在投資銀行業務方面，摩根士丹利於本季主導多宗具里程碑意義的 IPO，同時協助開啟更廣泛的客戶案源管道。隨著機構客戶尋求進入全球市場，我們的股票業務在全球提供客戶解決方案，帶來卓越的 63 億美元單季表現。

With institutional activity strong and IPO markets open, Morgan Stanley connected the integrated firm to translate institutional strength into client value through our adviser-led and E*TRADE channels. Wealth Management added a record $148 billion in organic net new assets, driven by large IPOs of late-stage private workplace clients. Growth led by workplace relationships reflects a cornerstone of our client acquisition funnel.

在機構活動強勁且 IPO 市場開放的背景下，摩根士丹利透過顧問主導與 E*TRADE 通路，串聯整合型公司，將機構端的優勢轉化為客戶價值。財富管理新增有機淨新資產創紀錄達 1,480 億美元，主要由後期私募職場客戶的大型 IPO 所帶動。由職場關係帶動的成長，體現我們客戶獲取漏斗的核心基石。

Our ability to serve clients across the private to public continuum continues to attract assets to a world-class platform, delivering unique products, solutions, and advice. Investment Management also grew in the quarter with AUM now reaching $2 trillion. This business remains a diversified source of strength with Parametric as an important differentiator of the Integrated Firm.

我們服務客戶橫跨從私募到公開市場的能力，持續吸引資產流入世界級平台，並提供獨特的產品、解決方案與建議。投資管理業務本季亦持續成長，管理資產規模（AUM）現已達到 2 兆美元。該業務仍是多元化的強項來源，其中 Parametric 是整合型公司重要的差異化優勢。

The four pillars of Morgan Stanley: strategy, culture, financial strength, and growth remain central to how we run the firm. Financial strength is top of mind. Over the last 10 quarters, we've accreted $18 billion of CET1 capital and now have a capital cushion that is at least 300 basis points with continuing stress test validation of our durable business model. This excess capital affords Morgan Stanley the strategic flexibility to continue to support clients globally, invest in our businesses, and return capital to our shareholders. This quarter, we delivered on all 3 of those priorities, including announcing a 15% increase in our quarterly dividend to $1.15 per share.

摩根士丹利的四大支柱——策略、文化、財務實力與成長——仍是我們經營公司的核心。財務實力是我們最關注的重點。過去 10 個季度，我們累積增加了 180 億美元的普通股權一級資本（CET1），目前資本緩衝至少達 300 個基點，且壓力測試持續驗證我們具韌性的商業模式。這些超額資本賦予摩根士丹利策略彈性，使我們能持續在全球支持客戶、投資於各項業務，並回饋資本給股東。本季我們在上述三項優先事項上皆有交付成果，包括宣布將季度股利提高 15% 至每股 1.15 美元。

During the last 10 quarters, we have sharpened the effectiveness and connectivity of the integrated firm's core mission, which is to be the preeminent adviser to clients as they raise, manage, and allocate capital. We have a 15-year record of successfully integrating acquisitions, and we are, as a discipline, constantly evaluating potential inorganic opportunities to expand and attract to geographies, bolt on new capabilities, add new client relationships.

在過去 10 個季度，我們強化了整合型公司核心使命的效能與連結性，也就是在客戶募集、管理與配置資本時，成為其首選且最具影響力的顧問。我們在成功整合併購方面有 15 年的紀錄；同時，作為一項紀律，我們也持續評估潛在的非有機成長機會，以擴展並進入新的地理市場、加掛新能力、並新增客戶關係。

As we've learned through hard fought integration success, strategic rationale and cultural fit continue to be threshold criteria for any inorganic opportunity even before we consider transaction terms. So, the bar must remain high. The very good news is that we are well placed across two major businesses, Global Investment Banking and Markets, and US-dominated Wealth and Asset Management, where the core addressable markets in the current environment are growing at nominal GDP plus and where we continue to realize wallet share gains. The integrated firm approach underscores that the organic growth opportunities right in front of us are compelling and deserve the first dollar of reinvestment.

從我們歷經艱辛而取得的整合成功經驗可知，策略合理性與文化契合度，甚至在我們考量交易條件之前，就仍是任何非有機機會的門檻標準。因此，標準必須維持在高位。非常好的消息是，我們在兩大主要業務——全球投資銀行與市場業務，以及以美國為主的財富與資產管理——都具備良好定位；在當前環境下，其核心可觸及市場的成長速度高於名目 GDP，且我們持續提升錢包份額。整合型公司的方法凸顯：眼前具吸引力的有機成長機會值得我們優先投入每一分再投資資金。

As I wrote in our March shareholder letter, two defining themes have come into sharper focus over the course of 2026. The first is the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence, not only by consumers, but more importantly, across the enterprise; where its potential for enhanced efficiencies and productivity is only beginning to be realized. The second is the return of geopolitics as a defining force in the global economy, as renewed competition among nation states and regional powers is reshaping supply chains, capital allocation, and economic prospects across our client universe.

正如我在 3 月的股東信中所寫，2026 年進程中有兩個決定性主題變得更加清晰。第一，是人工智慧的採用正在加速，不僅在消費者端，更重要的是在企業端；其提升效率與生產力的潛力才剛開始被實現。第二，是地緣政治重新成為全球經濟的決定性力量；國家與區域強權之間的競爭再起，正重塑供應鏈、資本配置，以及我們客戶群體的經濟前景。

These are the known unknowns that will continue to shape the environment in which we and our clients operate. They demand disciplined execution and the agility to adapt as conditions evolve. We continue to be well minded to proceed alongside our clients with the right combination of optimism and vigilance.

這些是已知的未知數，將持續形塑我們與客戶所處的營運環境。它們要求有紀律的執行，以及在情勢演變時能靈活調整的敏捷性。我們將持續以適度的樂觀與警覺並行，與客戶一同前進。

Morgan Stanley enters the second half of 2026, operating from a position of strength. Our clients, retail and institutional, are seeking advice on how to respond to complicated global markets and are interested in new products and innovation. Our role as financier, underwriter, allocator is to offer our clients market access and trusted advice globally.

摩根士丹利以強勢姿態進入 2026 年下半年。我們的零售與機構客戶正尋求建議，以因應複雜的全球市場，並對新產品與創新抱持興趣。我們作為融資者、承銷商與配置者的角色，是在全球為客戶提供市場進入管道與值得信賴的建議。

Morgan Stanley's first-half performance demonstrates our business model's operating leverage when markets are receptive and clients take action. With a clear and consistent strategy to raise, manage, and allocate capital for our clients, we continue to be intensely focused on delivering higher highs and importantly, higher lows for our shareholders through the economic cycle.

摩根士丹利上半年的表現，展現了當市場環境有利且客戶採取行動時，我們商業模式的營運槓桿。憑藉清晰且一致的策略，為客戶募集、管理與配置資本，我們持續高度專注於在經濟循環中，為股東創造更高的高點，並且更重要的是，更高的低點。

Thank you, and Sharon will now take us through the quarter in greater detail. Over to you, Sharon.

謝謝各位，接下來 Sharon 將更詳細地帶大家回顧本季表現。交給你了，Sharon。

Thank you and good morning. In the second quarter, the firm produced record revenues of $21.3 billion and record EPS, ex-DVA of $3.46. Our ROTCE was 26.6%. Institutional and retail client engagement remained strong throughout the quarter, and the integrated firm consistently delivered trusted advice and market access, responding to ongoing client demand.

謝謝，早安。第二季，公司創下 213 億美元的營收新高，以及創紀錄的每股盈餘（EPS），扣除 DVA 影響後為 3.46 美元。我們的有形普通股權益報酬率（ROTCE）為 26.6%。本季機構與零售客戶的互動維持強勁，整合型公司也持續提供值得信賴的建議與市場進入管道，以回應客戶持續的需求。

The firm's year-to-date efficiency ratio was 65%. Top-line growth and disciplined execution drove operating leverage through the first half, more than offsetting higher execution-related costs and continued strategic investments across the firm. Higher technology-driven spend relates to investments to support our infrastructure, AI-enabled efficiencies, and ongoing business growth.

本公司年初至今的效率比率為65%。上半年，營收成長與嚴謹的執行帶動營運槓桿，足以抵銷較高的執行相關成本以及全公司持續的策略性投資。較高的科技驅動支出，主要與為支援我們的基礎設施、AI賦能的效率提升，以及持續的業務成長所進行的投資有關。

Now, to the businesses, momentum in Institutional Securities continued in the second quarter and it's remained highly engaged. The segment delivered record revenues of $11 billion and record pretax profit of $4.3 billion. Results were driven by our leading Equities franchise and supported by investment banking.

接著談各項業務，機構證券在第二季延續動能，且仍保持高度投入。該分部創下110億美元的創紀錄營收，以及43億美元的創紀錄稅前利潤。業績主要由我們領先的股票業務平台帶動，並獲投資銀行業務支持。

Our long-standing global footprint and our investments in talent, technology, and research positions us well to advise clients. That strength was evident in every region contributing to the year-over-year revenue growth.

我們長期建立的全球布局，以及在人才、科技與研究方面的投資，使我們具備良好條件為客戶提供建議。這項優勢在各地區皆有體現，所有地區均對年增營收成長有所貢獻。

Investment Banking revenues were $2.4 billion. The 58% increase from the prior year reflected strength across products as momentum built across capital raising and strategic activity. Advisory revenues increased year over year to $798 million on higher completed activity. Revenues remain diversified across sectors, including top contributions from industrials, technology, and healthcare.

投資銀行營收為24億美元。較去年同期成長58%，反映各產品線表現強勁，且資本募集與策略性活動的動能逐步建立。在已完成交易活動增加的帶動下，顧問業務營收年增至7.98億美元。營收在各產業間維持多元分散，其中工業、科技與醫療保健貢獻居前。

Equity underwriting revenues were strong at $851 million. The significant increase versus the prior year was supported by a robust IPO market, and strong follow-on and convertible activity. Fixed income underwriting revenues were a record $788 million, driven by bond issuance across non-investment-grade and investment-grade companies. Issuers took advantage of favorable spread environment, and an increase in strategic activity supported results.

股票承銷營收強勁，達8.51億美元。相較去年同期的大幅成長，主要受惠於活絡的IPO市場，以及強勁的增發與可轉債活動。固定收益承銷營收創紀錄達7.88億美元，主要由非投資級與投資級公司之債券發行所帶動。發行人把握有利的利差環境，且策略性活動增加亦支撐了業績表現。

The investment banking outlook is constructive, and pipelines are healthy. Client dialogue is broad-based across sectors. And while year-to-date activity has been led by the Americas, global activity is building. Large corporates are executing on their strategic objectives, and the need for solutions and capital continues to grow, and sponsor monetization is selectively gaining momentum.

投資銀行展望偏正向，案源管線健康。與客戶的對話在各產業間廣泛展開。雖然年初至今的活動主要由美洲地區領先，但全球活動正在升溫。大型企業正推進其策略目標，對解決方案與資本的需求持續成長，而贊助方（Sponsor）變現亦在選擇性地增強動能。

Turning to Equities, our franchise delivered an exceptional quarter with revenues reaching a record of $6.3 billion, driven by increases across all products and regions. Asia was strong with the breadth of activity extending across the region. Active markets and technology trends serve as tailwinds, and our multiyear investments in our global franchise allowed us to prosecute greater levels of client engagement.

再看股票業務，我們的平台交出卓越的一季，營收創紀錄達63億美元，受惠於所有產品與各地區的成長。亞洲表現強勁，且活動廣度擴及整個區域。活躍的市場與科技趨勢形成順風，而我們多年來對全球平台的投資，使我們得以推進更高程度的客戶互動。

Prime Brokerage revenues rose versus the prior year, driven by higher average client balances and strong activity in Asia. Cash results were strong, led by active client engagement and higher market volumes in the Americas compared to the prior year. Results in derivatives were also very strong versus the comparative period. Investments in technology centered on building scale and dynamic risk management tools are paying off. The business was well positioned to capture global activity.

主經紀商（Prime Brokerage）營收較去年同期上升，主要由較高的客戶平均餘額及亞洲強勁活動所帶動。現金業務表現強勁，主要由客戶高度參與，以及美洲市場成交量較去年同期增加所帶動。衍生性商品的表現亦較比較期間非常強勁。以建立規模與動態風險管理工具為核心的科技投資正開始見效。該業務已具備良好條件以掌握全球活動。

Fixed income revenues were $2.5 billion, demonstrating balance across products. The cumulative growth of our secured lending business and trading discipline resulted in solid performance. Macro results were roughly flat versus the prior year. Resilience in rates offset declines in foreign exchange, where volatility traded near historic lows. Micro results increased year over year, driven by strong performance in credit corporates, on the back of improved inventory management and robust primary issuance. Additionally, the cumulative growth of lending balances and securitized products further contributed to results.

固定收益營收為25億美元，展現產品間的均衡表現。我們擔保放款業務的累積成長與交易紀律，帶來穩健表現。宏觀（Macro）業務結果與去年同期大致持平。利率業務的韌性抵銷了外匯下滑；外匯波動度接近歷史低點。微觀（Micro）業務結果年增，主要由信用公司債的強勁表現所帶動，受惠於更佳的庫存管理與強勁的一級市場發行。此外，放款餘額與證券化產品的累積成長亦進一步貢獻業績。

Commodities results improved versus the prior year, supported by higher client activity and structured transactions. Activity moderated sequentially following an exceptionally strong first quarter that benefited from energy market volatility. Other revenues reflected a loss of $152 million, largely driven by mark-to-market losses on corporate loans held for sale, inclusive of hedges.

大宗商品業績較去年同期改善，受惠於較高的客戶活動與結構性交易。在第一季因能源市場波動而異常強勁後，活動在本季按季趨於溫和。其他營收反映1.52億美元的虧損，主要由待售公司貸款（含避險部位）的按市價評估損失所致。

Turning to Wealth Management, the business generated a record of $8.9 billion in revenues and total client assets stand at $8 trillion. The execution of our strategy, particularly our sustained investments in our client acquisition funnel, allowed us to reach more clients and deepen existing relationships. We remain the industry leader with record net new assets of $148 billion and strong fee-based flows of $39 billion.

再看財富管理，該業務創下89億美元的營收紀錄，客戶資產總額達8兆美元。我們策略的落實，特別是對客戶獲取漏斗的持續投資，使我們得以觸及更多客戶並深化既有關係。我們仍為業界領導者，淨新增資產創紀錄達1,480億美元，且以費用為基礎的資金流入強勁，達390億美元。

Our financial advisers, our culture of continued innovation, our ability to provide unique capabilities and products are the foundation of our business. Together, they underpin a scaled, differentiated platform with $3 trillion in fee-based assets. Further, the connectivity of our integrated firm sets us apart, positioning us to deliver for our clients.

我們的財務顧問、持續創新的文化，以及提供獨特能力與產品的能力，是我們業務的基石。這些共同支撐起一個具規模且差異化的平台，擁有3兆美元的以費用為基礎資產。此外，我們整合式公司的連結性使我們脫穎而出，讓我們能更好地為客戶交付成果。

Revenues of $8.9 billion and pretax profit of $2.7 billion were both a record, supported by rising asset levels and robust retail engagement. The pretax margin was 30.5%, a reflection of the scale of our business and the intentional strategic investments for our future. Asset Management revenues were $5.3 billion, driven by expanding markets and the cumulative impact of strong fee-based flows.

營收89億美元與稅前利潤27億美元皆創紀錄，受惠於資產水位上升與強勁的零售客戶參與。稅前利潤率為30.5%，反映我們業務的規模，以及為未來所進行的有意識策略性投資。資產管理營收為53億美元，主要由市場擴張及強勁的以費用為基礎資金流入之累積效應所帶動。

Transactional revenues were $1.2 billion, up 20% year over year, excluding the prior year's positive impact from DCP. Results reflect highly engaged retail clients across both adviser-led and self-directed channels. Loan growth remained strong in the second quarter, with balances growing $9 billion. In a quarter with tax obligations, we saw an increase against lending of equity portfolios.

交易型營收為12億美元，若排除去年DCP帶來的正面影響，則年增20%。結果反映零售客戶在顧問主導與自助式兩種通路皆高度投入。第二季貸款成長仍然強勁，餘額增加90億美元。在包含稅款支付義務的一季中，我們看到以股票投資組合進行借貸的需求增加。

Sequentially, deposits grew to $436 billion and net interest income increased to $2.3 billion. NII outperformed on higher-than-expected sweep balances and strong loan growth. For the third quarter, we expect a modest sequential increase in NII.

按季來看，存款增至4,360億美元，淨利息收入增至23億美元。NII在高於預期的掃入（sweep）餘額與強勁貸款成長帶動下，NII表現優於預期。對於第三季，我們預期NII將按季小幅增加。

Lastly, net new assets were a record of $148 billion. Stock plan IPO flows represented just over half of the overall NNA this quarter, more than offsetting seasonal taxes illustrating the strength of the workplace channel as a strong contributor to the top of the funnel.

最後，淨新增資產創紀錄達1,480億美元。本季股票計畫IPO資金流入占整體NNA的一半以上，且足以抵銷季節性稅款，顯示職場（Workplace）通路作為獲客漏斗上游的重要貢獻來源之實力。

With strong capital markets, the power of our client acquisition funnel is becoming increasingly evident. Workplace brings relationships and assets onto the platform, and we are well positioned to support these new relationships.

在強勁的資本市場環境下，我們客戶獲取漏斗的威力愈發明顯。職場（Workplace）將關係與資產帶入平台，而我們已具備良好條件來支持這些新關係。

Our investments are extending our runway for growth. We continue to deliver advice and solutions to new and existing relationships, supporting the build in our fee-based assets. We are investing from a position of strength and believe these capabilities set us apart.

我們的投資正在延長我們的成長跑道。我們持續為新舊關係提供建議與解決方案，支持以費用為基礎資產的擴張。我們在優勢地位下進行投資，並相信這些能力使我們與眾不同。

Turning to Investment Management, AUM now stands at a record $2 trillion. Long-term net inflows were $7.5 billion for the quarter, driven by ongoing demand for alternatives and solutions, including Parametric as well as our fixed income strategies. Parametric remains a key differentiator with over $760 billion in AUM today, continued education initiatives and ongoing client demand have supported financial adviser adoption across our suite of Parametric custom solutions.

再看投資管理，管理資產規模（AUM）目前創紀錄達2兆美元。長期本季長期淨流入為75億美元，主要由市場對另類投資與解決方案（包括Parametric）以及我們固定收益策略的持續需求所帶動。Parametric仍是關鍵差異化優勢，目前AUM超過7,600億美元；持續的教育推廣與客戶需求，支持財務顧問在我們一系列Parametric客製化解決方案中的採用。

Revenues of $1.6 billion increased 6% compared to the prior year. Results reflect higher asset management and related fees, driven by higher average AUM. Performance-based income and other revenues were $130 million. The current quarter primarily reflects net mark-to-market gains in our private funds. As we look ahead, our ongoing investments in technology, distribution, and product innovation position our diversified franchise to better serve our global client base.

營收16億美元，較去年同期成長6%。業績反映資產管理及相關費用增加，主要由較高的平均AUM（管理資產）所帶動。以績效為基礎的收入及其他營收為1.30億美元。本季主要反映我們私募基金的淨按市價評價（mark-to-market）收益。展望未來，我們持續在科技、通路與產品創新上的投資，使我們多元化的業務平台更能服務全球客戶群。

Turning to the balance sheet, consistent performance has generated strong capital accretion and strengthened the firm's financial position. Total spot assets grew to $1.7 trillion and standardized RWAs grew to $590 billion, supporting increased client activity. We repurchased $1.5 billion of common stock, and our standardized CET1 ratio ended the quarter at 14.8%.

接著談資產負債表，穩健的表現帶來強勁的資本累積，並強化公司的財務狀況。即期資產總額成長至1.7兆美元，標準化風險加權資產（RWA）成長至5,900億美元，支撐客戶活動增加。我們回購了15億美元普通股，本季末標準化普通股權益第一類資本（CET1）比率為14.8%。

Reflecting the strength of our capital position, we announced a quarterly dividend increase of $0.15, bringing the quarterly dividend per share to $1.15. While the Fed's most recent stress test does not impact our current capital requirements, it serves as further recognition of the durability of our business model. Our quarterly tax rate was 23.1%. We continue to expect our annual tax rate to be between 22% and 23%, which similar to prior years, will exhibit some quarterly volatility.

反映我們資本部位的強勁，我們宣布每季股利提高0.15美元，使每股季股利提高至1.15美元。雖然聯準會（Fed）最新的壓力測試不影響我們目前的資本要求，但這也進一步肯定了我們商業模式的韌性。我們本季稅率為23.1%。我們仍預期全年稅率介於22%至23%之間，與往年類似，季度間將出現一定波動。

We enter the second half of the year with $10 trillion of total client assets across Wealth and Investment Management. Together, with a strong capital position and a building backlogs, the integrated firm is well positioned to provide advice and to support clients in an increasingly complex environment.

我們以財富管理與投資管理合計10兆美元的客戶資產總額，進入下半年。結合強勁的資本部位與持續累積的待辦量（backlog），整合後的公司具備良好條件，在日益複雜的環境中提供建議並支援客戶。

With that, we will now open the line up to questions.

接下來，我們將開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

(接線員指示) 美國銀行（Bank of America）的Ebrahim Poonawala。

Morning, Ebrahim.

早安，Ebrahim。

Hey, morning, Ted. Maybe just obviously very strong quarter, two questions, both on Wealth: one, maybe talk to us in terms of, are we at peak flows as far as workplace channel is concerned, when we look at the NNA growth both the environment -- when we think about IPO activity, driving the flows, combined with the actions you all have taken as part of this integrated firm, or can we do better? Just kind of what inning are we in, in terms of growth tied to the workplace channel, and just overall NNA growth as you look out over the next year and over the medium term?

嗨，早安，Ted。本季顯然非常強勁，我有兩個問題，都關於財富管理：第一，從職場通路（workplace channel）的角度來看，就NNA（淨新增資產）成長而言，我們是否已經處於資金流入的高峰？當我們考量環境——例如IPO活動帶動資金流入——再加上你們作為整合型公司所採取的行動，是否還能做得更好？就與職場通路相關的成長而言，我們目前大概處於哪個階段？以及展望未來一年與中期，整體NNA成長你們怎麼看？

Sure. Why don't I take that, Ebrahim. I think it's a great testament to the investments that we've made over the course of many years. We have always talked about the workplace channel. We've talked about the fact, I think I said it in the last call, that IPOs can serve as a form of where we get NNA and the top of the funnel. Why don't I take a step back and just remind you that we have about 70% of the top 100 unicorns by market cap in terms of our workplace pipeline. So we've spent a lot of time thinking about how do we service some of these companies at the very early stages.

好的。Ebrahim，我來回答。我認為這充分證明了我們多年來所做的投資。我們一直在談職場通路。我們也談到過——我想我在上次電話會議提過——IPO可以作為我們獲取NNA、並充實漏斗上端（top of the funnel）的一種方式。我先退一步提醒你，我們在職場通路的管線中，按市值計算涵蓋了前100大獨角獸約70%。因此，我們花了很多時間思考如何在非常早期階段就為其中一些公司提供服務。

We've talked about private. We've talked about how we support a different private companies, think about EquityZen, and all of the investments that we've made. So that gives you sort of the framework of really some of the top of the funnel. There are other places in workplace, right? There are 401(k)s, there's relationships with E*TRADE, their savings products, et cetera. Now, as you go through the funnel, we've talked about increased backlog from the IPO pipeline. And that should help as you think about different companies coming to market and again, providing that with different opportunities.

我們談過私募。我們談過如何支援不同的私營公司，例如EquityZen，以及我們所做的各項投資。這些構成了漏斗上端的一個框架。職場通路還有其他面向，對吧？有401(k)，也有與E*TRADE的關係、其儲蓄產品等等。接著沿著漏斗往下，我們也談過IPO管線帶來的待辦量增加。當不同公司上市時，這將帶來助益，並再次提供各種不同的機會。

Of course, that will ebb and flow. We've seen that. We've had different quarters where you have different movements in NNA that comes through these IPOs or might come through large integrated firm relationships, and we've talked about that, too. And what we're focused on now is really making sure that what we're doing is retaining those clients. We're providing them with advice.

當然，這會有起伏。我們已經看到了。在不同季度，你會看到NNA因這些IPO或大型整合型公司關係而出現不同變動，我們也談過這點。而我們目前的重點，是確保我們所做的一切能留住這些客戶。並為他們提供建議。

So we often talk about, well, where are the dollars of investments going? They're going into product capabilities. They're going into creating our referral models. They're going into products like LeadIQ that will allow us to match individuals with advisers. And our goal is to be their principal financial adviser.

所以我們常談到，投資資金都花到哪裡？投入到產品能力。投入到建立我們的轉介（referral）模式。投入到像LeadIQ這類產品，讓我們能把個人與理財顧問進行配對。而我們的目標，是成為他們的主要財務顧問。

Again, you might have differences in where people decide to spend their money, their relationships, but we're -- this is a long game, and it's been a long game, and we will continue to invest in the long game. And what you see this quarter, and you've seen in the most recent quarters, is really the activity in all of this playing out as we think about the longer-term top and then that migration of those flows into fee-based and path to advice.

再說一次，人們如何決定花錢、以及他們的關係可能會有所不同，但我們——這是一場長期戰，而且一直都是長期戰，我們也會持續投入這場長期戰。而你在本季、以及最近幾季所看到的，正是這一切在發揮作用：我們從長期的漏斗上端著眼，並讓這些資金流逐步轉向以費用為基礎（fee-based）的模式，以及通往提供建議（advice）的路徑。

That's helpful. And just talking about the dollar spend towards investments, talk about when we think about the Wealth Management pretax margin, pretty strong, 30.5%. I guess the average shareholder of Morgan Stanley would think that this pretax margin is probably drifting into the low-30s or even the mid-30s over the medium term.

這很有幫助。另外談到投資支出，當我們看財富管理的稅前利潤率（pretax margin），表現相當強勁，達30.5%。我想摩根士丹利的一般股東會認為，這個稅前利潤率在中期可能會走向低30%甚至中30%。

One, is that a reasonable assumption, appreciating you've not changed your strategic targets? And second, around maybe the investments that you're making how much of -- what percentage of those investments, if you can frame it that way, will lead to a more productive business looking out the next few years? Thanks.

第一，考量你們並未調整策略目標，這樣的假設是否合理？第二，關於你們正在進行的投資，如果用這種方式來描述，有多少——或這些投資中有多大比例——會在未來幾年帶來更高的生產力（更高效率/更高產出）的業務？謝謝。

Yeah, we're pretty disciplined, as you know, about not moving the targets during the course of the year, which is why we go through the discipline of the annual strategy deck and we're comfortable with the way it's been laid out. And in periods where things are very busy, and there's a considerable amount of activity, you're going to see greater PBT, and you might also see greater margin.

是的，如你所知，我們在一年之中不調整目標方面相當自律，這也是為什麼我們會透過年度策略簡報（strategy deck）來維持這種紀律，而我們也對目前的規劃方式感到滿意。在業務非常繁忙、活動量相當可觀的時期，你會看到更高的稅前利潤（PBT），也可能看到更高的利潤率。

It's going to move around. The reality is that 30 is a benchmark now we've hit a number of times, but it's not a number we're solving for. What we're solving for is a lot of what Sharon just talked about, which is to continue to drive further PBT gains.

這會有所波動。現實是，30%如今是我們多次達成的基準，但這並不是我們要刻意追求的單一數字。我們要解決的，是Sharon剛才談到的許多事情，也就是持續推動更進一步的PBT成長。

If over time, it's clear that the margin hurdle is not enough, and we want to take it up, we'll do that. But that's something we're going to want to give a real consideration to in light of the ongoing investment we're going to make to continue to take wallet. It's not that we're just taking advantage of an open TAM. It's that we are actually gaining wallet in each of these spaces as assets migrate their way through the funnel. So that's something that would be addressed at the end of the year. But as you see, we've now surpassed the 30 a couple of times, so it's something we will keep an eye on.

如果隨著時間推移，很明顯利潤率門檻不夠、而我們希望把它提高，我們會這麼做。但我們會在考量持續投資、以繼續提升客戶錢包份額（take wallet）的前提下，審慎評估。這不只是利用一個開放的TAM（可服務市場總量）。而是隨著資產沿著漏斗遷移，我們確實在各個領域都在提升錢包份額。因此，這會在年底時再行處理。但如你所見，我們已經好幾次超過30%，所以我們會持續關注。

Glenn Schorr, Evercore.

Glenn Schorr，Evercore。

Good morning, Glenn.

早安，Glenn。

Good morning. Maybe start out with a follow-up on the NNA, maybe we could drill down a little bit? Maybe you could talk a little bit about new versus existing clients? And then on the piece that comes from workplace and IPOs, I think it's instructive for the future given that you have such a big position with the unicorns and there's a big IPO pipeline. I'm curious to see when the recognition comes in, meaning does everything come in on the IPO, or is there a vesting schedule? And then curious what went into adviser-led versus self-directed. Is it all self-directed, and then we build towards adviser-led? Just looking for a little more color because I expect a lot more of the same.

早安。或許先從對 NNA 的追問開始，我們能不能再深入一點？也許你可以談談新客戶與既有客戶的差異？另外，關於來自職場端與 IPO 的那一塊，我認為這對未來很有啟發性，因為你們在獨角獸上有很大的布局，而且 IPO 的管線也很大。我想了解認列是在什麼時點發生，也就是說，是在 IPO 當下全部進來，還是有歸屬（vesting）時程？另外也想知道顧問主導（adviser-led）與自助式（self-directed）各自的構成是什麼。是全部先以自助式進來，然後再逐步導向顧問主導嗎？我只是想多一些細節，因為我預期接下來會有更多類似的情況。

Sure. Let me try and take that. And I wrote some of your questions down, so if I missed something, apologies. But overall, I'd say that it's a mix, right? So there are new accounts. There are existing clients that may have already had accounts and that can be both on the workplace side and on the individual side.

當然。我試著回答一下。我也把你的一些問題記下來了，所以如果漏掉了什麼，先跟你致歉。但整體來說，我會說這是混合的，對吧？有新開戶。也有既有客戶可能原本就有帳戶，這在職場端與個人端都可能發生。

I mean, on the adviser-led, that already exists within advisor-led, but also, some of those clients that might come in through workplace might already have existing accounts, so it would be a little difficult to exactly tell you where that is. The point is that for those that might not yet have the advice-based relationship, we're working on that referral model.

我的意思是，在顧問主導這一塊，本來就在顧問主導的體系內存在；但同時，有些透過職場端進來的客戶也可能已經有既有帳戶，所以要精確告訴你來源占比會有點困難。重點是，對於那些尚未建立以諮詢為基礎關係的客戶，我們正在推動那個轉介模式。

And that's something that can begin as early as the financial education spot, and it can also begin -- like I said, we have examples with 401(k) and new 401(k) assets that come in is not necessarily an IPO-specific workplace where we're really giving people that ability to better understand where they could use advice. So there's a lot to unpack just on those pieces, but I'd say those are contributions.

而這件事最早可以從金融教育的環節開始，也可以從——如我所說，我們在 401(k) 以及新進來的 401(k) 資產上都有例子——不一定是 IPO 特定的職場方案；我們真正做的是讓大家更能理解在哪些地方可能需要建議（advice）。所以光是這幾個面向就有很多可以拆解，但我會說這些都是貢獻來源。

Now, as you move forward through -- you asked the question, I think, also about vesting schedules and when I -- it does depend. I will not suggest that all IPOs are exactly the same. You -- it comes through a -- when you actually receive it, will be a function of the vesting schedule, and there might be different IPOs that you might -- if it's over the course of a quarter that you would have it, then you might have to wait a couple of days. It's not necessarily instantaneous. But in this particular case, we spoke, there were large IPOs, more than one that took place over the quarter, and that's largely what you're seeing here as reflected in our numbers.

接著，當你往後推進——我想你也問到歸屬時程以及我何時——這確實要看情況。我不會說所有 IPO 都完全一樣。你——實際收到的時間會取決於歸屬時程；而且不同 IPO 可能——如果是在一個季度的期間內陸續發生，你可能還得等上幾天。不一定是即時的。但在這個特定案例中，我們提到的是在該季度內發生了不只一宗大型 IPO，而你在我們數字中看到的，主要就是這些所反映出來的。

Now, the way to think about it on the forward, the last point that I would make is that you're going to see different flows from different parts of the capital structure. That is worth noting. And here, in this particular case, these are really employee flows. So that's a positive, as you think about the employees that we're going to have more relationships. We're currently at 20 million relationships. Do you remember when those numbers -- Glenn, it's not that long ago, we were talking about 10. We were talking about 12. We're talking about 14, and those are big numbers. We have 20 million touch points, and that's a lot of people and a lot of business to potentially prosecute over time.

再來，往前看時該怎麼理解，我最後想補充的一點是：你會看到來自資本結構不同部分的不同資金流入。這點值得注意。而在這個特定案例裡，這些主要是員工端的資金流。所以這是正面的，因為這代表我們會與員工建立更多關係。我們目前有 2,000 萬個關係（relationships）。你還記得那些數字嗎——Glenn，其實也沒多久以前，我們還在談 1,000 萬。我們談 1,200 萬。我們談 1,400 萬，而那些已經是很大的數字。我們有 2,000 萬個觸點，這是很多人、也代表很多業務，未來可以逐步去開發。

Wow, that's big. Ted, maybe a quick follow-up on your comments on always looking for bolt-ons, you put up great returns on a really high capital base. And I guess my question is, do you keep this capital base this high for a reason, meaning while times are good and you're still putting up incredible returns, why not run the optionality? Or are there other reasons why you're hanging on to all this excess capital?

哇，那很大。Ted，針對你提到一直在尋找補強型併購（bolt-ons），你們在非常高的資本基礎上仍繳出很好的報酬。我想問的是，你們把資本基礎維持得這麼高是有原因的嗎？也就是說，在景氣好的時候、你們仍能創造驚人的報酬，為什麼不把選擇權（optionality）跑起來？還是有其他原因讓你們保留這麼多超額資本？

Well, I like your answer to the question, actually, Glenn, because I think that the pillar of financial strength of this firm is something that we have put some substance behind in accreting $18 billion of CET1 over the last 10 quarters. That is no small matter. Part of that was during a period where we didn't know where the regulator would come out, and hopefully, we're in the last innings of that.

嗯，Glenn，其實我喜歡你對這個問題的提法，因為我認為本公司的財務實力支柱，是我們在過去 10 個季度累積（accreting）了 180 億美元 CET1 所實打實建立起來的。這不是小事。其中一部分是在我們還不知道監管機關最終會怎麼定案的期間累積的，而希望我們現在已經進入最後階段了。

You're right, we have -- depending on how you measure it, 300 to 350 basis points of excess CET1 capital depending on which test, which period and all that, and we have a real SLR capacity, too. So the question becomes, is there demand for that capital?

你說得對，我們——視你怎麼衡量——大約有 300 到 350 個基點的超額 CET1 資本，取決於用哪個測試、哪個期間等等；而且我們也有實質的 SLR 容量。所以問題就變成：對這些資本有需求嗎？

And I can tell you that there is a lot of demand for that capital inside the four walls of our global firm. And clients wish us to do more, too. And that demand is coming from the investment banking client set. It's coming from the fixed income client set, in credit. And in macro, it's certainly coming from our equities client base in prime brokerage and in derivatives. It's coming from our wealth management client base. It is a long list of folks who would like to get more of our capital.

我可以告訴你，在我們全球公司這四面牆之內，對這些資本的需求非常大。客戶也希望我們做得更多。這些需求來自投資銀行的客戶群。也來自固定收益的客戶群，特別是在信用（credit）。在總體（macro）方面，當然也來自我們股票客戶基礎中的主經紀（prime brokerage）與衍生品。也來自我們的財富管理客戶群。想要更多使用我們資本的人非常多，名單很長。

But we are quite ruthless about how we are playing this game, which is to not squeeze out every quarter. We like the idea of there being a reasonable buffer. We like the idea of being able to, therefore, play through the cycle. We have been putting capital out to clients part of the upside of the last number of quarters is even with that, we've accreted additional capital, which then allows for more capital to be put forward on a running basis.

但我們在這件事上的做法相當嚴格，也就是不會為了每一季把資本榨到極致。我們喜歡保有合理的緩衝。我們也喜歡因此能夠穿越景氣循環。我們一直在把資本投放給客戶；過去幾個季度的上行部分原因在於，即使如此，我們仍累積了更多資本，進而讓我們能在持續運作的基礎上投入更多資本。

We look at these ratios very closely. We like where we are. What I would say as a matter of discipline per the comments I made, Glenn, is, on the one hand, we believe strongly as a senior management team, that the next dollar of assets should go straight into feeding the Integrated Firm and fulfilling the mission of the strategy, which is to raise manage and allocate capital, not to wander, and to do that for our most durable important clients, whether they be individuals or institutions. That is the plan, and demonstrably in this environment, where clients are active, and clearly, there's some power of pricing extraction, we are doing that, and we will continue to do that. Full stop.

我們非常密切地檢視這些比率。我們喜歡目前的位置。依照我剛才的評論，作為一種紀律，我想說的是：一方面，作為高階管理團隊，我們堅信下一美元的資產應該直接用來支持整合型公司（Integrated Firm），並完成策略使命——也就是募集、管理與配置資本——而不是四處游移；並且要為我們最具持久性、最重要的客戶做到這一點，不論他們是個人或機構。這就是計畫，而且在這個客戶活躍、且顯然存在一定定價能力可供擷取的環境下，我們確實正在這麼做，也會持續這麼做。到此為止。

It is the case that there are attractive geographies, new capabilities, new relationships that could be bolted on inorganically. And as you know our firm very well, we've done the long slog of 15 years of successful acquisitions, both from the post-crisis period all the way through equities last year. It's a lot of work. It's a lot of work to get it right. We think we're pretty good at it, but we have real humility around it.

確實存在一些具吸引力的地理市場、新的能力、新的關係，可以透過非有機方式加掛進來。而且如你很了解我們公司，我們在過去 15 年走過一段漫長而艱辛、但成功的併購歷程，從金融危機後一路到去年在股票業務上的併購。這是大量的工作。把它做對需要非常多的功夫。我們認為自己相當擅長，但對此也保持真正的謙遜。

But are we seeing opportunities come across the transom that are interesting? We are. Are we potentially looking at stuff that could bolt on to the strategy? We are. But I would tell you right now, the bias continues to be to go organic.

那我們是否看到一些有趣的機會主動找上門？有的。我們是否可能在看一些能夠加掛到策略上的標的？有的。但我現在就告訴你，我們的偏好仍然是走有機成長。

Now, you can do both. You could -- because of the capital surplus, we could continue to expand organically and build something on. That is certainly achievable when you're 300-plus over and with the kind of SLR capacity that we have. But what I would tell you is, we are very much focused in as a disciplined matter, reviewing candidates for bolt-on. Again, if they get us closer to clients, add clients, add some adjacent capabilities, expanding the geographies we like. But I think the most likely case, Glenn, over the next term with markets as active as they are and clients looking to access our capacity is that we will continue to thoughtfully and prudently put out capital to those clients.

當然，你也可以兩者並行。你可以——因為資本有盈餘，我們可以持續有機擴張，同時再加掛一些東西。當你的資本超額超過 300 個基點以上、且我們具備這樣的 SLR 容量時，這確實是可達成的。但我想告訴你的是，我們非常專注、以紀律性的方式在審視可作為加掛併購的候選標的。同樣地，前提是它們能讓我們更貼近客戶、增加客戶、增加一些相鄰能力，並擴展到我們喜歡的地理市場。但我認為最可能的情境是，Glenn，在接下來一段期間市場如此活躍、客戶也希望動用我們的資本承作能力之下，我們會持續以審慎且周全的方式，把資本投放給這些客戶。

And we will see where the capital buffers go, but they also have to be contextualized against a much larger market cap. So yes, the buffers are nice, and they're important, and they think they are -- we believe it's a differentiator with shareholders and with folks like you, which is very important. But to underscore, there is demand, both from clients and from some of the folks running businesses that they'd love to get more -- get some more of that firepower out to clients because clearly, we're in a moment of operating leverage.

我們也會觀察資本緩衝的走向，但也必須放在更大的市值背景下來理解。所以是的，緩衝很不錯，也很重要，而且他們認為——我們也相信——這是對股東以及像你這樣的人而言的一項差異化優勢，這非常重要。但我想強調的是，需求確實存在，無論是來自客戶，或是一些負責經營業務的人，他們都很希望我們能把更多——把更多火力投放到客戶端，因為很明顯，我們正處在營運槓桿發揮的時刻。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

Mike Mayo，富國證券。

Morning, Mike.

早安，Mike。

Hey. Hey, Ted. So it's about a year ago when you said we were approaching the moment of Wow, W-O-W, and I guess we're there, I'm not sure, and I was looking for some context around this CapEx AI-driven super cycle. And you had spoken about this going over the course of several years. Can you put any numbers around this? I mean, we see press reports of trillions of this and trillions of that, and how much has been raised, and how much do you expect to be raised, or some meat on the bones, if you could.

嗨。嗨，Ted。大概一年前你說我們正接近「哇」的時刻，W-O-W，我想我們現在到了吧，我不太確定；我想請你就這個由 AI 驅動的資本支出（CapEx）超級循環提供一些背景。你曾談到這會在數年期間展開。你能不能用一些數字來描述？我是說，我們看到媒體報導說這裡幾兆、那裡幾兆，還有已經募了多少、你預期還會募多少；如果可以的話，能否提供一些更具體的內容。

Well, Mike, it's an excellent and important question. The short answer is it's really early and I'm not sure we all together know because of the known unknown element of this. So that would be my short answer.

嗯，Mike，這是個非常好且重要的問題。簡短的答案是：現在還很早，我不確定我們大家是否都知道，因為這裡面有「已知的未知」這個因素。所以這會是我的簡短回答。

My longer answer though, looking to try to give you some meat on the bone would be that AI CapEx expectations continue to move up. The forecast for 2026 on data center CapEx that was taken late last year around November of '25 was that $575 billion would be spent this year and it's coming in at about $850 billion. And that for 2027, the view was it would be around $700 billion, and now it's projected at $1.3 trillion. And 2028 could be at $1.5 trillion.

不過我較長的回答、試著給你一些更具體的內容是：AI 的資本支出預期仍在上修。對 2026 年資料中心 CapEx 的預測，是在去年稍晚、約 25 年 11 月做的，當時預估今年會花 5,750 億美元，但目前看起來大約是 8,500 億美元。而對 2027 年，當時的看法約是 7,000 億美元，現在則上調到 1.3 兆美元。而 2028 年可能會到 1.5 兆美元。

Our excellent research team, led by Kate Huberty, would observe that each major tech cycle has produced a tenfold increase in compute capacity. Applied to AI, that would suggest a progression from roughly -- the last transformation, I think we'd agree, was cloud, roughly $1 trillion of cloud compute, times 10 is $10 trillion of AI compute.

我們優秀的研究團隊，由 Kate Huberty 領導，觀察到每一次主要的科技循環都帶來運算能力的十倍增長。套用到 AI，這意味著從大約——我想我們會同意，上一次的轉型是雲端——大約 1 兆美元的雲端運算規模，乘以 10，就是 10 兆美元的 AI 運算規模。

So if you think about the numbers I rolled out before, the $575 million feels like $850 million, the $700 million feels like $1.2 trillion for next year, and then maybe $1.5 trillion after that, you're basically looking at us being around 10% to 15% of the way through the investment cycle. And it's totally reasonable to say that there are going to be periods when technology or capital investment is ahead of adoption or that the fight for primacy and a piece of this chain will deliver poor allocated investment outcomes. That we know, and that there will be technology and power bottlenecks and constraints.

所以如果你回頭看我剛才列出的數字，原本的 5,750 億看起來像是 8,500 億；原本的 7,000 億看起來像是明年的 1.2 兆，然後再之後可能是 1.5 兆；基本上你會得出我們大概才走完這個投資循環的 10% 到 15%。而且完全合理的是，會有一些時期技術或資本投資會領先於採用進度，或是爭奪主導地位、爭取供應鏈某一環的競爭，會導致資本配置結果不佳。這點我們知道；同時也會有技術與電力方面的瓶頸與限制。

But I think we'd agree, Mike, that the market for intelligence for the digital meets human loop for real productivity enhancement is absolutely here. And so the question becomes, is $10 trillion right? And how long to get there, and how big is that number? And the answer there is it's a really large number, right?

但我想我們會同意，Mike，面向「數位與人類迴圈」的智慧市場、用以真正提升生產力的需求，已經確實到來。因此問題變成：10 兆美元是否正確？要多久才能到達？以及那個數字到底有多大？而答案是：那是一個非常龐大的數字，對吧？

Global GDP is $120 trillion. As you know, S&P is $67 trillion. I looked this morning, Wilshire is $75 trillion. But $10 trillion spent over 10 years in the search for additional intelligence, which could bring an additional boost to aggregate productivity value -- it's on the one hand, hard to imagine, but on the other hand, it could be imagined. That's something like $10 trillion spent over many years.

全球 GDP 是 120 兆美元。如你所知，標普（S&P）是 67 兆美元。我今天早上看，Wilshire 是 75 兆美元。但若在 10 年內投入 10 兆美元去追求額外的智慧，而這可能為整體生產力價值帶來額外提升——一方面很難想像，但另一方面也並非不能想像。那大概就是在很多年裡投入約 10 兆美元。

Now, our role, as you know, is to raise manage and allocate capital as adviser, financier, allocator. What does Morgan Stanley have? We have global reach. We have sector specialty. We anticipate what's next through that advice. We have structural expertise. We have knowledge of private and public markets. We can match sources and uses of capital. We can steward the wealth creation. We also act as a principal, to Sharon's earlier point with 20 million wealth clients given the size and scale of the business.

那麼，我們的角色，如你所知，是以顧問、融資方、配置者的身份去募集、管理並配置資本。摩根士丹利有什麼？我們有全球觸角。我們有產業專長。我們透過這些建議去預判下一步。我們有結構性專業能力。我們了解私募與公開市場。我們能夠媒合資金來源與資金用途。我們能夠守護財富創造的過程。我們也會以自營（principal）身份參與，呼應 Sharon 先前提到的，考量到業務的規模與量體，我們擁有 2,000 萬名財富管理客戶。

But again, Mike, it's early. And the numbers I just took a stab at could be dramatically altered by chip innovation, nation state involvement, supply chain, geography, long list. So one has to have a few million all of this, but you asked a direct question. And there's my humble attempt.

但再說一次，Mike，現在還早。而我剛才試著估算的那些數字，可能會因為晶片創新、國家層級的介入、供應鏈、地理因素等一長串原因而大幅改變。所以對這一切必須保持一定程度的謙遜，但你問的是很直接的問題。以上是我謙遜的嘗試。

All right. Well, if you're going to do a doctoral dissertation, I guess that's your thesis. So -- and I appreciate that. Your role, the industry's role, and let's just say the $10 trillion right just for -- how much involvement would you have in raising capital? Is it like 10%, 20%, 50%. These copies will have cash. They don't always need to raise debt or equity. What's your percentage role in capital raising. Let's just use the $10 trillion number just as an example?

好。嗯，如果你要寫一篇博士論文，我想那就是你的論點了。所以——我很感謝。就你的角色、整個產業的角色而言，先假設 10 兆美元這個數字是對的——你在募資上的參與度會有多少？是 10%、20%、50% 嗎？這些公司會有現金。他們不一定需要發債或發股募資。你在資本募集中的占比是多少？就用 10 兆美元這個數字當作例子？

Well, some of that capital is going to be raised point-to-point between players in the ecosystem. Obviously, that's not the best outcome for firms like ours. We want to intermediate that. It is clear that structuring capability and creativity around how to think about planning that kind of CapEx over many period -- many years in a given period, means that there's got to be a real trusted relationship between the private placement or public underwriter.

嗯，其中一部分資本將會在生態系中的參與者之間以點對點的方式募集。顯然，這對像我們這樣的公司而言並不是最理想的結果。我們希望能夠在其中扮演中介角色。很清楚的是，圍繞如何在多個期間——在既定期間內跨越多年——來規劃這類資本支出（CapEx）的結構設計能力與創意，意味著私募配售或公開承銷商之間必須建立真正可信賴的關係。

So I think the answer is that some of it can just be done naturally through cash flow generation of the leading hyperscalers, but some of it is going to have to be with fresh capital, whether it be debt or equity, and a bunch of it is going to have to be done very creatively to access the right investor base.

所以我認為答案是，其中一部分可以透過領先的超大規模業者（hyperscalers）自然產生的現金流來完成，但其中一部分將必須依賴新增資本，不論是債務或股權；而且相當一部分必須以非常有創意的方式來進行，才能觸及合適的投資人基礎。

So on that one, I would say we're really early. What we do know is that the capital is available. The aggregate capital between all the players in the private and sort of semi-public sector that can put this to work over the course of many years is there.

所以就這點而言，我會說我們還在非常早期。我們確實知道的是，資本是充足的。在私募以及某種程度的半公開市場領域中，所有參與者合計在多年期間可投入運用的總體資本是存在的。

So this is a question of how does this race play out between the various would-bes? Where is the need inside the chain? What geography is actually needing the capital? At what period of time, which helps therefore to have a global business able to allocate outside the US? So on that one, I'd say I wouldn't attach a percentage to it, but I would say it's going to be meaningful.

所以這個問題在於，這場競賽會如何在各種潛在參與者之間展開？供應鏈內部的需求在哪裡？哪些地理區域實際上需要資本？在什麼時間點需要——因此也凸顯出擁有全球業務、能夠在美國以外配置資本的重要性？所以就這點而言，我不會給它貼上一個百分比，但我會說它會相當可觀。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

Chris McGratty，KBW。

Morning, Chris.

早安，Chris。

Hey, good morning. Good morning, everybody. I guess more on the IV -- my question on the IV pipeline, I think you talked about great levels here. I wonder how if you could contextualize it today versus historical periods, biases geographically, untapped potential, and also unpack the sponsor comment. Thank you.

嗨，早安。各位早安。我想再多問一些關於 IV——我對 IV 管線的問題，我記得你提到目前水準很不錯。我想請你把它放在今天相對於歷史期間來做脈絡化說明，包括地理分布上的偏向、尚未開發的潛力，並且也請你進一步拆解一下你對 sponsor（財務贊助方）的評論。謝謝。

So I think it's a great question. And when we look at our numbers, we're not yet at the levels that we've seen historically in different areas in terms of what's actually been announced or been completed, so there's clearly more to go there. What was most interesting, I think, when we reflected in the quarter and we reflected on the pipeline, was that we are seeing a broadening out. I like the fact that you asked the question directly about geographies because it was a theme that came up, i.e., we've seen it in the Americas. But when you look ahead, there's pipeline in Asia, there's pipeline abroad. And so that does give you a lens that there is a broadening out of the themes that we're seeing across that kind of need for capital, as Ted just mentioned.

我認為這是個很好的問題。當我們看我們的數據時，就實際已公告或已完成的交易而言，我們目前還沒有回到過去在不同領域所見到的歷史水準，所以顯然還有更多空間。我認為最有意思的是，當我們回顧本季並檢視管線時，我們看到的是範圍正在擴大。我很喜歡你直接問到地理區域，因為這確實是一個浮現的主題，也就是說，我們在美洲看到了。但往前看，亞洲有管線，海外也有管線。因此，這讓你能從中看到一個視角：我們所看到、對資本需求的這些主題正在擴散開來，正如 Ted 剛才提到的。

The second piece that I would mention is specifically, this began as a cycle really around debt, and we saw a lot of issuance both investment-grade, and then we saw the non-IG space, and now we're seeing the equity side. And the dual tracking of the equity and the strategic side from the advisory, it's really been strategic I mentioned and I think others have also mentioned, we have not yet seen that complete cycle from the sponsors yet. And so with an IPO track and then the potential for sponsors, there is more there and that pipeline is building.

第二點我想提的是，這一輪循環一開始其實主要圍繞在債務端，我們看到大量發行，包含投資級，接著也看到非投資級（non-IG）領域；而現在我們正在看到股權端。從顧問業務的角度來看，股權與策略端的雙軌推進——我提到的、我想其他人也提到的——我們還沒有看到來自 sponsor 的完整循環走完。因此，隨著 IPO 路徑以及 sponsor 的潛在動作，還有更多空間，而那條管線正在建立中。

Yeah, what I would add to this is, if you ask, as you know, the classic M&A banker, what do they want? They want a certain element of execution certainty for their clients. And dating back to -- we had financial repression, which cleared capital calculations because the effective rate of interest was zero. So the M&A environment was a little weird. Then we had massive in some cases, overregulation of potential merger opportunities, so folks didn't want to get caught in a band, not getting sort of a result. Then we had the pandemic. Then we had rates skyrocket on the inflation burst.

對，我想補充的是，如果你問——如你所知——典型的併購銀行家想要什麼？他們希望為客戶提供一定程度的執行確定性。回頭看——我們曾經有金融抑制，因為實際利率接近零，資本成本的計算被「清空」了。所以當時的併購環境有點不尋常。接著在某些情況下，我們又遇到對潛在合併機會的過度監管，因此大家不想卡在一個不上不下、拿不到結果的狀態。然後是疫情。再來是通膨爆發導致利率飆升。

And now we're in a period where, really, the -- all things being equal, the environment is not perfect because clearly, there's some geopolitical noise. But the urgency in our view, is twofold, and it gets to the two themes of the letter. The first is AI. It doesn't necessarily mean bigger is better, but you sure as heck better think about it because you're going to spend several points running on making sure you are more efficient, and then over time, that your firm is more productive that you're actually able to realize that effectiveness premium that size and scale can get you. So that's clearly ever and present as a consideration.

而現在我們處在一個時期，基本上——在其他條件相同下——環境並不完美，因為顯然仍有一些地緣政治雜音。但我們認為急迫性有兩個面向，也呼應信函中的兩個主題。第一個是 AI。這不一定代表越大越好，但你肯定得好好思考，因為你將投入好幾個百分點的成本來確保更有效率；而隨著時間推移，你的公司會更具生產力，並且能真正實現規模與體量所帶來的效率溢價。所以這顯然是一個始終存在的考量。

The second is this -- I don't want to call it dereg cycle, I'll call it a normalization of regulation cycle, where we're right now in an environment where folks in the administration and amongst the regulator want to approve reasonable, rational, well-considered transactions that are to the greater good of the economy. And now, you put that against the backdrop which is the economy is in great shape. There is barely talk of the R-word. The consumer certainly at the spending higher end is in very good shape. And there is the reality of some supply chain fracturing or re-globalization, which means you have to, if you're a global company, reconsider where you make the product and how you distribute it to put it simply.

第二個是——我不想把它稱作去監管循環，我會稱之為監管正常化循環——我們現在所處的環境是，政府與監管機構希望核准合理、理性、經過周全考量、且有利於整體經濟的交易。而且把這放在當前背景下：經濟狀況非常好。幾乎沒有人在談那個以 R 開頭的字（recession，衰退）。消費者——尤其是高端支出族群——狀況非常好。同時也存在供應鏈碎片化或再全球化的現實，這意味著如果你是一家全球公司，你必須重新思考產品在哪裡製造、以及如何分銷——簡單來說就是如此。

So the -- in that respect, if you put that all together, both as a temporal matter, architectural matter, and as a pent-up matter, where M&A volumes against current market cap are still at multiyear lows, you put that against an IPO environment where it's not fun to go public, and became effectively the exit trade for financial sponsors, but now again, led by some interesting thinking by the SEC to help bring some incentive for companies to go public again. You put that all together, I think it is a very favorable backdrop for M&A and for equity capital raising via IPO as a growth story.

所以——在這方面，如果把這些因素綜合起來，無論從時間面、架構面，或從累積待釋放的需求面來看——目前併購量相對於當前市值仍處於多年低點；再把它與 IPO 環境放在一起：上市並不好玩，且一度幾乎成為財務贊助方的退出交易；但現在又因為 SEC 一些有意思的思路，試圖重新提供誘因，讓公司再次願意上市。把這些放在一起，我認為這對併購以及透過 IPO 進行股權募資、作為成長故事的敘事而言，是非常有利的背景。

Last comment I'd make is attaching to Sharon on sponsors. The sponsors are finding that the -- in this environment, publicly traded companies are doing quite well if they're priced appropriately and receiving the right kind of treatment. So the IPO exit opportunity is real. They're also finding that asset values and the environment that we're in now has put some of the better product in a place where they can achieve something that feels like their marks are better and they want to trade and raise that capital. They've got to raise capital to pay their own partners to go out and raise the next fund and keep the thing going, especially amongst the public company set.

我最後想補充的是，接續 Sharon 談到 sponsor 的部分。sponsor 正在發現，在這樣的環境下，只要定價得當並獲得適當的市場對待，上市公司表現相當不錯。因此，透過 IPO 退出的機會是真實存在的。他們也發現，資產價值以及我們目前所處的環境，讓一些較好的標的產品處在一個位置，使他們能達到一種感覺上「估值標記（marks）更好」的狀態，因而想要進行交易並募集資本。他們必須募集資本來支付自家合夥人，才能再出去募集下一支基金並讓整個機器持續運轉，尤其是在上市公司這一群體之中。

So there is, I think, a reasonably healthy competition that is taking place as between sponsors and strategic buyers. My last comment would be that the sponsors institutionalized are well-developed, publicly traded, are now global players, so they compete in markets like Japan and France and the UK and throughout Asia. So I'm really quite bullish, assuming the economy and the backdrop continues to be favorable that in this period of regulatory normalization, and given the pent-up element of this thing, that we are going to see continued M&A activity with good companies looking to get better by adding or purifying.

因此我認為，發起人（贊助方）與策略性買方之間正在進行相當健康的競爭。我最後想補充的是，這些制度化的發起人已相當成熟、為上市公司，如今也成為全球性參與者，因此他們在日本、法國、英國以及整個亞洲等市場競爭。所以我其實相當看多；假設經濟與整體環境持續有利，在這段監管正常化期間，加上這件事存在的累積需求因素，我們將會看到併購活動持續進行，優質公司透過併入或聚焦核心來變得更好。

That's great context. And I guess, if I could ask a follow-up, the question of sustainability and trading is coming up a lot and I think the industry continues to hit higher highs, can you just speak to the mix of the trading business between finance intermediation, where you see that going? Obviously, wins that you're getting to make the higher the highs, higher? Any color on the trade and sustainability?

這個脈絡很有幫助。我想追問一下，關於永續與交易的議題最近被提到很多，而且我認為產業仍在不斷創新高；你能否談談交易業務在金融中介等面向的組合，以及你認為未來會往哪裡走？顯然，你們正在取得一些勝利，讓高點不斷被推升、再創新高。能否就交易與永續性提供一些補充說明？

Sure. Again, I go back to the point in the language that I just used, even talking about the IBD activity, is that you are seeing a broadening out of activity. So you used to talk about -- and I'll just take Asia as an example, when you just talk about Asia, you talked just about China. And then it became China and Japan, and then a little bit of India. And now you're talking about India, you're talking about Japan, you're talking about China, you're talking about Korea, you're talking about Taiwan. And so certain geographies are no longer a monolith. And the access that clients want this is a broad client activity story.

當然。我再回到我剛才使用的措辭，即便是在談投資銀行部門（IBD）的活動時，你也會看到活動面正在擴大。過去你談到——我以亞洲為例——談亞洲時其實只談中國。後來變成中國與日本，再加上一點印度。而現在你談的是印度、日本、中國、韓國、台灣。因此某些地理區域不再是單一整體。而客戶想要取得的這種接觸，本質上是一個廣泛的客戶活動故事。

Like I said at the beginning, it's retail and institutional, and you're seeing those clients look for ways to gain access, US-based clients, for example, to gain access more broadly. But what's important is not just the sustainability of activity. I would note that for us, there's also the investments that we've been making in order to capture various parts of the share. For example, we've talked about derivatives, the investments we've made there in the equities business, et cetera.

如我一開始所說，涵蓋零售與機構客戶，你會看到這些客戶在尋找方式來取得更廣泛的市場接觸；例如以美國為基地的客戶，希望更廣泛地取得接觸。但重要的不只是活動的可持續性。我也要指出，對我們而言，還包括我們為了掌握各個市占部分而進行的投資。例如，我們談過衍生性商品，以及我們在股票業務等方面所做的投資，等等。

Yes. I mean, I will put an exclamation point on that. For a lot of our investors and for a bunch in your community, the view is that we're a US play, right? And that has made a lot of sense in the context of the compounding and growth of the wealth management business and some of the core growth opportunities in the US economy.

是的。我的意思是，我要特別強調這一點。對我們許多投資人以及你們圈子裡不少人而言，大家的看法是我們是一個美國題材，對吧？而在財富管理業務的複利成長與擴張，以及美國經濟中的一些核心成長機會的背景下，這樣的看法確實很合理。

But we're also in Asia House, very much in Asia House. As you know, we're 25% owned by MUFG dating back to the financial crisis. The interaction with our partners is more intense than it's ever been. We launched 2.0 about 1.5 years ago, which brings together not just research and equity content but foreign exchange, and that has turned out to be a win-win. And there's lots more that we're looking to do together.

但我們同時也在亞洲深耕，確實非常深耕亞洲。如你所知，自金融危機以來，MUFG 持有我們 25% 的股權。我們與合作夥伴的互動比以往任何時候都更緊密。我們大約在 1.5 年前推出 2.0，把不僅是研究與股票內容，還包括外匯整合在一起，而結果證明是雙贏。而且我們還有很多事情希望一起推進。

And as Sharon points out, we have a thriving business in Taiwan. We have a thriving business in Korea. We obviously have this gateway Hong Kong effort into China and in Hong Kong itself, which is the entire equities, fixed income, commodities and importantly, investment banking chain. And we also have a wealth business that is doing quite well and is having a substantial year-over-year growth.

正如 Sharon 所指出的，我們在台灣有蓬勃發展的業務。我們在韓國也有蓬勃發展的業務。我們當然也有以香港作為進入中國的門戶布局，以及在香港本地的完整平台，涵蓋股票、固定收益、商品，且重要的是，還包括投資銀行的完整鏈條。此外，我們的財富管理業務表現也相當不錯，並且年增幅度可觀。

So just to echo what -- and then we actually have a superb business in India. So I think what Sharon and I would sort of gear you to a bit regionally, is this is not a new effort for us. We've had some edge in this region for a long time. We all have the miles to prove it. And we're going to continue to invest in our clients and our people in the region broadly.

所以呼應一下——而且我們在印度其實也有非常出色的業務。因此我想 Sharon 和我在區域面想傳達的是：這對我們而言不是新的努力。我們在這個區域長期以來一直有一些優勢。我們都有足夠的資歷與里程可以證明。而我們也將持續在整個區域加大對客戶與人才的投資。

(Operator Instructions) Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

(接線員指示) Steven Chubak，Wolfe Research。

Morning, Steve.

早安，Steve。

Hey, good morning, Ted and Sharon, and thanks for taking my question. So I wanted to double-click into some of the comments you made, Sharon around workplace, but specifically focusing on the competitive landscape. The M&A strength showcase, certainly highlights our leading position, the benefits of the Carta partnership. There was some press coverage this quarter, just highlighting efforts by smaller RIAs, employing more aggressive pricing to compete for some of that business. I was hoping you could speak to how the competitive landscape is evolving in workplace and the steps that you're taking just to widen your competitive moat maybe sustain some of those higher client conversion rates that you've delivered historically?

嗨，早安，Ted 和 Sharon，謝謝讓我提問。我想更深入追問你剛才的一些評論，Sharon，關於職場（workplace）這塊，但特別聚焦在競爭態勢。併購（M&A）動能的展現，確實凸顯了我們的領先地位，以及與 Carta 合作夥伴關係帶來的好處。本季有一些媒體報導提到，一些較小的 RIA（註冊投資顧問）正以更具侵略性的定價來競爭部分業務。我想請你談談職場業務的競爭格局如何演變，以及你們正在採取哪些措施來擴大競爭護城河，或許也能維持你們過去一向交出的較高客戶轉換率？

Sure. Thank you for the question. It's always been a competitive business. But when we thought about the ecosystem, we've constantly been thinking about being able to offer more capabilities, more options and a greater lens of investment. So for us, it starts really with the corporates, with the corporate coverage. You have the Integrated Firm to help you begin to build those corporate relationships. So if we think of the very top of the funnel, it's how do you have that corporate relationship. And there are multiple sides, and there's a full effort behind that. So it's not just the wealth business, there's an integrated firm effort, and there's also the investment banking side.

好的。謝謝你的問題。這一直都是一個競爭激烈的業務。但當我們思考整個生態系時，我們一直在思考如何提供更多能力、更多選項，以及更廣的投資視角。對我們而言，起點其實是企業端，也就是企業覆蓋（corporate coverage）。你有整合型公司（Integrated Firm）來協助你開始建立這些企業關係。所以如果我們把它看作漏斗的最上端，就是如何建立那個企業關係。而這裡有多個面向，背後也有完整的投入。因此不只是財富管理業務，還有整合型公司的投入，同時也有投資銀行端的參與。

And then if you keep going and drilling down, you are now thinking about, well, what kind of financial advice and financial wellness can you offer to the clients. With no disrespect to smaller institutions, they will not have that type of breadth. And then now, you then bring those clients into the funnel, and we have a greater ability to match advisers to the right clients, with all the technology that we've put into place.

接著如果你繼續往下鑽研，你現在會思考：你能為客戶提供什麼樣的財務建議與財務健康（financial wellness）服務。無意冒犯較小的機構，但他們不會具備這樣的廣度。然後你再把這些客戶帶入漏斗，而憑藉我們已建置的各項科技能力，我們更能把顧問與合適的客戶進行匹配。

And the final point are the capabilities right? So we're able to offer more products, alternatives, different types of solutions as well as financial advice broadly for different types of individuals at different points in their life cycle that will help. The final point is, when you think about this quarter and you just look alone at the NNA, as we said, just over half is coming from IPOs, you're not going to be able to have that corporate relationship at a much smaller level. That's something that is unique to Morgan Stanley and is really the bread and butter of the integrated firm. And many of these IPO conversations are about having that integrated advice from the top of the house.

最後一點是能力面，對吧？因此我們能提供更多產品、另類投資、不同類型的解決方案，也能更廣泛地提供財務建議，針對處於不同人生週期階段的不同類型個人，提供有助益的服務。最後再補充一點，當你看本季、單看 NNA（淨新增資產），如我們所說，略高於一半來自 IPO，你不可能在更小的規模層級建立那樣的企業關係。這是摩根士丹利獨有的，也是整合型公司的核心本業。而許多這些 IPO 的對話，談的就是從公司最高層級提供那種整合式建議。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

Erika Najarian，瑞銀（UBS）。

Morning, Erika.

早安，Erika。

Good morning. On the eye-watering equities numbers, just putting all of this together, Ted, you mentioned that you were in Asia House. You've also mentioned that we're sort of just 10% to 15% of the way in terms of this AI super cycle. I'm wondering sort of given all those dynamics, how durable is some of the activity on the equities trading side that's coming out of Asia.

早安。關於那些令人咋舌的股票數據，把這些都綜合起來看，Ted，你提到你在 Asia House。你也提到，就這個 AI 超級循環而言，我們大概才走了 10% 到 15%。我想問的是，在這些動態之下，來自亞洲的股票交易端活動，其持續性有多強？

And, Sharon, we have heard that given the demand for balance sheet in Asia and continued demand in the US that the financing providers have gained some pricing power this quarter. And I'm wondering if you sort of could comment both on both the volume durability and the pricing power?

另外，Sharon，我們聽說鑑於亞洲對資產負債表的需求，以及美國持續的需求，本季融資提供者獲得了一些定價權。我想請你評論一下：不論是量能的持續性，還是定價權的提升？

I would say there is some pricing leverage, but there are also a lot of folks in the ecosystem who have additional capital they can put forward. So there is some pricing leverage, though, depending on the type of product and what the client is looking to access as part of the greater portfolio, what they can get from a firm like ours.

我會說確實有一些定價槓桿，但生態系裡也有很多參與者擁有額外資本可以投入。所以確實存在一些定價槓桿，不過會取決於產品類型，以及客戶作為更大投資組合的一部分想要取得什麼、以及他們能從像我們這樣的機構獲得什麼。

With respect to the sustainability of this, I mean, some of it is a function of asset prices being where they are. And clearly, folks thinking there's something that feels like global growth. So you'd have to have a view on whether the economy in the US, but then really by extension around the world, continues to grow. The inflation is under control, the geopolitics are on sort of kept quiet enough, and that there's the kind of volatility that has folks looking for index versus stock dispersion or selection without being there so much volatility that they want to be risk off is because things either feel recessionary or euphoric.

至於這種情況的可持續性，我的意思是，其中一部分取決於資產價格目前所處的位置。而且很明顯，大家覺得似乎有某種全球成長的感覺。因此你必須對美國經濟、以及延伸到全球的經濟是否會持續成長有一個判斷。通膨受到控制、地緣政治大致保持足夠低調，並且波動性處於一種程度：讓人們會去尋找指數相對於個股的分散度或做選股，但又不至於波動大到讓他們想要降低風險，因為事情要嘛看起來像衰退、要嘛像過度亢奮。

So those are all the kind of, Erika, as you know, unknowns that kind of have to play out during the course of the year. But there is demand for additional capability. We've got it. And it's just a question of how you want to deploy it, knowing that we're all playing a long game. It helps, by the way, to have the kind of scale and global reach that we have, which is why not surprisingly, as we talked about for a number of years, as you know, the very top houses are gaining wallet in this environment.

所以，Erika，如你所知，這些都是在一年當中必須逐步發展、而且帶有不確定性的因素。但市場確實需要更多能力。我們具備這些能力。接下來只是你要如何部署它，同時也要知道我們都在打一場長期戰。順帶一提，擁有我們這樣的規模與全球觸角是有幫助的；因此也不意外，正如我們多年來一直談到的，如你所知，在這樣的環境下，最頂尖的幾家機構正在取得更多錢包份額。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

Gerard Cassidy，RBC。

Morning, Gerard.

早安，Gerard。

Hi, Ted. Thank you for your insightful question on the CapEx. It's been a question I've been asking on other calls and not to suck up to you, but yours was the most insightful, so I think many people appreciate that.

嗨，Ted。謝謝你對資本支出（CapEx）提出很有洞見的問題。這也是我在其他電話會議上一直在問的問題；不是要拍你馬屁，但你的問題最有洞見，所以我想很多人都很感謝。

On that question, here's it another way, a question I have about it. It's very strong. We all know it. Many people are in your camp, myself included. The outlook is good. What are you guys keeping an eye on so that something may change? Because we all know we've had these -- nothing to this level, but you think of the dot-com boom, you think of back to the SPACs in '21 and eventually, they both went away, what are you guys keeping an eye on so that if something starts to crack and go the other way, you guys can prepare for it?

就這個問題，我換個方式問我心中的疑問。它非常強勁。我們都知道。很多人都站在你這邊，我也包括在內。展望很好。你們在觀察哪些指標，讓你們覺得可能會出現變化？因為我們都知道以前也有過這些——雖然沒有到這個程度——但你想到網路泡沫，你想到 2021 年的 SPAC，最後它們都退潮了；你們在盯哪些東西，好讓一旦開始出現裂縫、走向反轉時，你們能提前準備？

We keep our eyes on everything. I think we're just born to think that way. And to your excellent point, we do, having those of us that have been around long enough, do think of prior periods where things could feel like they're getting a frothy. So we keep a very close eye on that.

我們什麼都看。我想我們天生就是這樣思考的。而且你說得非常好，我們這些在市場待得夠久的人，確實會想到過去那些時期，當事情開始讓人覺得有點泡沫化。所以我們會非常密切地關注。

Because you've heard us say now for a whole bunch of quarters, and we really do mean it, higher highs to demonstrate operating leverage. But higher lows, higher lows is really important to us so that we can continue to make the case to you and to our shareholders that we deserve a healthy PE multiple.

因為你已經聽我們講了很多個季度，而且我們確實是認真的：更高的高點，用來展現營運槓桿。但更高的低點、更高的低點對我們非常重要，這樣我們才能持續向你以及我們的股東證明：我們值得一個健康的本益比（PE）倍數。

And that's got to be a function of durability. It doesn't mean that we can solve for economic cycles or market dislocations, but we can certainly find ways to continue to be doing the durable long-term franchise business with clients. So that's part of the -- that's part of what's in the elixir here.

而這必須取決於持久性。這不代表我們能解決經濟循環或市場錯位，但我們當然可以找到方法，持續與客戶做可持續的長期特許經營（franchise）業務。所以這就是——這就是這帖「靈藥」的一部分。

But we got our eyes wide open and have been really since the beginning of COVID. We've kept our eyes open because it's been the unleashing of a new environment where geopolitics are back in the frame and real interest rates, and real cycles, and real uncertainties, and that actually means that clients have to take action, and they need advice, and they need to be properly allocated. And we should thrive in that, but we also have to be looking at the risk constantly.

但我們保持高度警覺，從 COVID 一開始其實就一直如此。我們之所以保持警覺，是因為這是一個新環境的釋放：地緣政治重新回到視野中，實質利率、真正的循環、真正的不確定性都回來了；而這其實意味著客戶必須採取行動，他們需要建議，需要被妥善配置。我們應該能在其中茁壯，但同時也必須持續不斷地關注風險。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you, everyone, for participating. You may now disconnect and have a great day.

各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線，祝您有美好的一天。